Starting at 1 pm ET. I have a new game review up at Paste, of the pickup-and-delivery game Maglev Metro; and a new post for subscribers to the Athletic, looking at the top 100 prospects who’ve played in the majors so far this year.

Keith Law: A thousand times I’ve seen this road. Klawchat.

Richard: Early in their respective careers, you thought Correa and Bregman should probably switch defensive positions to highlight their respective strengths.  Now it seems like Correa is likely to be paid as a top-flight SS…has he worked to improve his defense that much over the last 3 seasons?
Keith Law: He might be paid as one, but he’s not a top-flight defender at short; he’s probably a 45 defender who’s helped by shifting/positioning. I’m still going to rank him very highly as a free agent but with some expectation that he’ll move off SS over the course of a long-term deal.

Tom: If Tanner Houck’s increased velocity is sustainable, does that change your expectations for him, or is that more contingent on developing a change up to counter lefties?
Keith Law: The latter.

Moe Mentum: What improvements do the Phillies need to see from Scott Kingery at the plate to bring him back to the majors? Technical adjustments? Mental reset? And are you still a believer?
Keith Law: It’s a swing adjustment IMO. And maybe a mental reset but I can’t really speak to that from here – I do know his swing degraded first and the approach second. I am still a believer.

addoeh: So you recently tried Burmese cuisine.  What cuisine do you plan to try next or is the biggest missing cuisine in your culinary passport?
Keith Law: I’ve tried to work in one of the two (I think) Ghanaian places I’ve heard good things about in the Phoenix area on some trips out that way, but it’s never worked out for timing, and one of the places had a lot of beef on their menu that limited my options, but that springs to mind as something I’ve never had that would also probably open my mind to some new flavors.

Hinkie: Hello, Keith.  Looking forward to an updated draft prospect list.  Since your initial rankings, what players have done the most for their draft stock and what guys are going in the wrong direction (other than Jaden Hill)?
Keith Law: Next week will be the new list, probably 50 names this time. I wrote in this week’s draft notebook that Frelick and Henry Davis are probably top 5 picks now. Andrew Painter has picked it up after two really awful starts to open the year. Jud Fabian continues to flounder – I said he couldn’t hit the slider and opposing teams appear to have heard the same thing. James Wood might end up at Mississippi State at this point; I heard he was hitting just a shade above .200. Also something is clearly amiss with Dick Fitts. He’s gone from first-round starter to a reliever who can’t get anyone out.

Ben (MN): Have you heard anything in the industry along the lines of the “Paul Molitor and Co. stunted Buxton’s development” narrative? I always wondered at the time because Buxton seemed to go up swinging at absolutely everything in his early days with the Twins (even though he walked a lot in A Ball), but nobody in MN wanted to criticize Molitor, the local legend. Now, even the Twins tv announcers are saying that Molitor’s insistence that Buxton be aggressive and hit the ball on the ground stymied his development.
Keith Law: I haven’t heard that myself but it seems plausible, at least.

Michael: My favorite team/player had a great first week! Ha! I knew you were wrong with your opinions based on “data” and “scouting”.  I am vindicated! (By the way, I sometimes see the initials “SSS” in your chats – what does this mean?)
Keith Law: Joking aside, someone tried to tell me I was wrong about Ryan Mountcastle’s likely regression after Mountcastle got one hit on Opening Day. That’s a new record, I think.

Deke: How do you approach someone who is genuinely well-meaning but just patently wrong? Not in a Matt Walshian, bad-faith sense. Like today, the Senior Bowl’s Jim Nagy was pretty dismissive of the concept of racial bias in scouting QBs because NFL front offices only want to win, so they wouldn’t downgrade a guy just because he’s black, which is absurd on the face of it. How would you approach that without immediately putting him on the defensive?
Keith Law: I’m not sure you can do that without putting him on the defensive, but in my view the best response to that is data. Put him in a position where he has to say that he doesn’t believe the evidence in front of him.

Todd Boss: Kopech pitching in relief; would you have believed that the CWS wouldn’t have room for a 100-mph throwing strikeout machine starter?
Keith Law: I believe this is really a development strategy, both to build him back up to eventually start and help him build confidence as he continues to return after two years of not pitching.

Tom: Tyler Matzek for Atlanta. Failed starter but can he be a backend relief pitcher now?
Keith Law: Hasn’t he been that? Great story, too. I wonder how different his whole career might have been had another team taken him – getting more money in the draft came from high bonus demands that may have deterred teams from drafting him in the top ten.

Tom: Jon Grays fastball averaged about 92 last start. Any concern there?
Keith Law: I’d say I want to see at least 2 starts of reduced velocity before I’d be concerned, 3 before I panic.

Tom: Call Your Mother, my favorite dc breakfast place. glad you enjoyed it. If you like Georgian food, theres a place right across the street from CYM called Tabla. Highly recommend!
Keith Law: We went to a location of CYM in the suburbs but I can say I have never had Georgian food (assuming you mean the democracy-challenged country in the Caucusus, not the democracy-challenged US state in the Jim Crow belt).

JT: Long term, do you see too much swing and miss in Kjerstad’s complicated approach?
Keith Law: Without any adjustments, yes. I assume the Orioles will try at some point to make adjustments with him.

Jesse B: Is there something there with Yermin Mercedes?
Keith Law: A hell of a story.

Pat: So, about 2-3 weeks ago I was able to get the COVID vaccine even though technically not eligible. (Rural areas have too much supply, so I was able to finagle an appointment thru a contact). I felt guilty like I was “jumping the line”. Is that right or should it just be everyone get vaccinated as quickly as possible?
Keith Law: At this point, yes, everyone should get vaccinated as soon as they can.

HomerSomethingSomething: Do you think Garret Whitlock can stick in the Majors all year so he doesn’t have to be offered back to the Yankees? He’s looked good in Spring and in SSS this season.
Keith Law: Sure, as a two-pitch reliever with AA experience already, it’s not surprising he’d be MLB ready.

Pat: BTW, the joyous reaction of Akil Baddoo’s parents to his HR last weekend was one of the joys I’ve gotten so far this season. To watch your kid work for years & year (& for the parents to spend the $$ & drive him to all the practices/games/showcases) & get the payoff of him hitting a HR in his 1st MLB AB. It’s a lot of work & a long road, but, seeing your child succeed at the highest level in his chosen field has to be such an experience.
Keith Law: Especially in his case, where he hasn’t played since elbow surgery in May 2019.

Justin Y: Corbin Burnes has given up 2 hits in two starts, that cutter is devastating. He’s gonna be in the CY Young conversation isn’t he?
Keith Law: I said in September he might have been the best pitcher in the NL had he spent the whole year in the rotation and avoided the oblique strain he suffered, which cost him the innings he needed to make a real argument for the CYA. He’s a stud. Former #24 overall prospect in my rankings.

Mudville Nine: Hey Keith, really enjoyed Inside Game! I’m curious to know your thoughts on Russ Atkins 5 years extension with the Blue Jays. Obviously, Rogers ownership is happy with how Shapiro and Adkins manage their budgets but what do you think this tandem getting a guaranteed 5 years commitment to continue teambuilding?
Keith Law: Ehhh … I don’t think I have a strong feeling either way on this. This front office built a very strong farm system – about two years after they said they did – and that’s worthy of praise, but I also would like to see more on-field results in the majors.

HomerSomethingSomething: Mountcastle looked absolutely horrific on defense yesterday – probably cost the O’s 3 runs alone in that game. But hey, he hit a home run so that’s good, right?
Keith Law: I think he can be something if he’s just a 1b/dh who hits for power with a low OBP.

Jason S: If I said the Pirates have the worst assembled team of all time, and Dodgers have the best. How much of a reach is that?
Keith Law: You clearly didn’t see the 2003 Tigers.

Jesse The Body: Balazovic and Duran should be up at some point this year for the Twins, correct?
Erin: Is Simmons/Buxton the best defensive SS/CF combo in recent memory?
Keith Law: I would say yes on Duran, Balazovic maybe in September?
Keith Law: Good question, not a pair of positions we usually think of together, but that is probably true. Simmons is the best defensive SS post-Ozzie, and Buxton is probably the best defensive CF in baseball right now.

JT: Can we believe in Carlos Rodon again? I am not really a White Sox fan, but it’s hard to be against someone finally healthy and able to make good on unfulfilled promise.
Keith Law: I apologize for using the technical vernacular here, but his shit was ridiculous the other night. Averaging 95 again? 30 sliders with 8 whiffs in 11 swings and no balls hit fair? I just pulled up his K of Kyle Seager on 3 swinging strikes on sliders – two in the zone, one below it. Filthy.
Keith Law: I have NO idea if he can hold up, but this is basically the guy I saw at NC State as an underclassman.

Justin: Do you think the strategy of going under slot on a top pick in order to spend more later works?   Should the Pirates consider this or should they just not get cute, and take Leiter instead?
Keith Law: You have to take the right guys, both in the first round and then later. The Pirates should take Leiter, though. There isn’t a good second choice right now.

Aaron: Do you get any info from teams regarding players that are currently at the alternate sites? Are those open to scouts or media?
Keith Law: I did last year, but I’ve been draft-focused the last few weeks, and those alternate site guys will be out playing minor-league games soon enough. I know at least some are open to scouts/media but I don’t think all are.

Oz: How do you feel about the 7 inning doubleheader rule?  Atlanta and Washington played on Wednesday and I like the quicker games.
Keith Law: Hate it.

Mike: Hi Keith – thoughts on Rocker’s dip in velocity over his last few starts? A blip on the radar or more of a red flag?
Keith Law: I discussed that in my draft notebook this week.

Jason: Is it time to panic yet about Keston Hiura? He strikes out so much. I have hope but, maybe he needs a run in the minors?
Keith Law: That’s another guy who needs to restore an old swing (like Kingery). It’s frustrating to see a player who can hit, and did hit for several years in college and in the minors and even his first year in the majors, change an approach that worked.

Greg: If everyone can IMMEDIATELY see something was called wrong on replay, why do we have to sit there and be told something is “not reviewable”? Shouldn’t blatant and obvious errors be able to be remedied. It just feels like baseball being the stodgy old sport its detractors paint it as when they seem to be behind other sports in terms of technology, like replays.
Keith Law: That HBP should have been reviewable but they’d have to change the replay rules.

Cristian Javier: am I in the rotation the whole year? Can I be in contention for rookie of the year?
Keith Law: Yes, probably. No, because you’re not a rookie.

Beau: I realize we haven’t seen real games in over a year, but is Gore’s seeming lack of command/polish at this point in time concerning at all? (compared to absurdly high expectations)
Keith Law: No. call me when he’s pitching in real games.

Noah: Wife and I are both fully vaccinated, going to dinner tonight with another couple (one fully vaccinated, the other not and pregnant) at an indoor dining establishment with limited capacity.  Currently having an anxiety attack, is that wrong?
Keith Law: I mean, I don’t think you’re doing anything wrong. I don’t understand your pregnant friend’s decision-making here.

Sean: Thoughts on Ty France?  Was he not a prospect due to his limited defense?  He consistently has the best at-bats on the team, and hits the ball to all fields.  Is there something here?
Keith Law: Bench guy, but that’s probably it. No position and didn’t hit much in the minors until AAA El Paso (a good hitters’ park). Has value, though – could play a long time bouncing around as a bench piece who fills in at the corners (I don’t think 2b will really work).

Kevin: If Tatis misses a lot of time any chance Abrams will get the call up? The first part of this question made me cry.
Keith Law: I can’t imagine they would hold off all year on Abrams if Tatis does have to miss most of the season.

Tony: KLAW, I am having bad anxiety but not sure whether to go to a social counselor, psychiatrist,  or clinical psychologist.  No idea the difference neither. Any advice?
Keith Law: You want a clinical psychologist who uses evidence-based practices first.

Zack: Who do you like to make more of an impact in 2021 at/behind the plate, Tyler Stephenson or Alejandro Kirk?
Keith Law: Kirk but I like both guys.

James: How higher of a ceiling is the current Ryan Weathers who holds 96+ through multiple innings vs the previous Ryan Weathers who would bottom out at 89?
Keith Law: Well this version made my top 100 this winter and the last version did not. Difference between an above-average big league starter and a back-end guy at best.

Paul K.: Great review of Maglev Metro.  Have you played Lost Ruins of Arnak yet?  If not, it’s a lot of fun and plays well with two.
Keith Law: I have not – it’s on the long side, listed as 30-120 minutes, and even I as the biggest boardgamer in the house find my attention flags past about an hour and a half.

AnalyticsPlant: Is The Inside Game eminently more readable in hardcover or in paperback?
Keith Law: I’m speaking against my own self-interest but I prefer paperbacks. They’re just so much more portable.

Beej: As a scout, how do you evaluate bat speed with the naked eye when the difference between a quick bat and a slow bat may only be a few hundredths of a second?
Keith Law: I think it’s pretty easy to see the difference with experience.

Matt: How do we as a society deal with stupid people that have a major influence on others? Millions of morons believe Ted Nugent questioning why we don’t hear about Covid-1 to 18. You can look up how Covid-19 got its name in 3 seconds. Yet, a large group of Americans can’t be bothered to do so
Keith Law: Our public education system does not emphasize critical thinking … and plenty of right-wing nonprofits have been pushing for years to further deemphasize science and rational thought at all levels of education.

Zach: Word is Jonathan India has made big leaps behind the scenes the last two years. Did you hear the same, or is this all just small sample size?
Keith Law: I wrote about that in my top 100 this winter, which he was on.

Jeffrey: Gausman appears to be a much better pitcher with the Giants.  Is this a credit to their pitching coaches or an indictment of Baltimore’s?
Keith Law: An indictment of Buck Showalter and his staff. They couldn’t stop messing with Gausman’s placement on the rubber. They messed up Arrieta’s delivery, wouldn’t play or even speak to Hays when he first came up … Elias et al inherited so much more than just a bad major-league roster.

BenL: I know the plan is to use him as a high leverage reliever this year to build innings for potential starter role in the future, etc etc., but do you recall anyone w/ the injury history of Alex Reyes becoming a relatively healthy, successful starter?
Keith Law: No, and FTR I always questioned whether he’d hold up given his delivery. He just had such great stuff I couldn’t ignore it, but in hindsight I should have been more conservative when ranking him.

Jeff: Should I worry about Soroka’s shoulder inflammation that shut him down for two weeks?
Keith Law: Yes because it’s not his first bout.

Chris: If rocker needs surgery how far would he slide in the draft?
Keith Law: I’m not anywhere near the point of thinking he needs surgery.

Joe: Trout mentioned he’s adjusted his swing in the off-season and it seems to have paid off with a slightly hotter than normal start….would you agree?
Keith Law: Yes, I was really concerned about the huge deficiencies in his game going into 2021.

Zihuatanejo: “Why do we hear so much about Malcolm X, and *nothing* about Malcolms I-IX?”
Keith Law: OK, that’s funny.

Beej: Is it fair to put Shane Bieber in the same category as Paul Goldschmidt as mis-identified prospect? I recall (apologies if I’m incorrect) that you had him pegged as a 4-5 starter who could be HR-prone.
Keith Law: I wrote him up as a guy I got wrong. He picked up more than a full grade of velocity after college, which is rare.

Deke: Listening to Monday’s pod right now, and how much did it hurt your brain to read an ad for “read nonfiction books condensed to 15 minutes”?
Keith Law: I read a lot of ads for products I don’t personally use. It’s part of the job.

TJ: In terms of Mountcastle and the Orioles probably not contending this year, is it worth playing him in LF and seeing if theres any possible development or is it not worth the bad defense to even try him in left?
Keith Law: Can the answer be maybe? As in, sure, it’s not hurting their playoff chances, but also, is it clear yet that it’s not going to work? When should they stop and say it’s not helping him or their pitchers who end up losing outs to his defense?

Mike Trout: Not judging at all — curious what changed that you felt comfortable taking your trip before getting vaccinated? I see a lot of people, sadly imo, struggling to adjust even after getting vaccinated.
Keith Law: My trip to DC/Maryland? I didn’t have to fly, and we didn’t eat indoors at any point. We were really only inside when in our hotel room and in one store. I don’t think we did anything unsafe to others and we didn’t feel like we put ourselves at risk.
Keith Law: (My wife is vaccinated, so it’s just me, really.)

Mac: Is Kumar Rocker falling out of the top 5?
Keith Law: No. Could he, yes. Is he right now, no, I don’t think so. But he might be the 3rd pitcher taken today rather than the second (Hoglund).

JR: How much of a sample size will you want to see before determining if mlb really did modify the baseball?
Keith Law: Rob Arthur wrote yesterday or the day before that the ball is livelier than ever. I’ll defer to experts like him.

Mac: Who is the first college position player drafted?
Keith Law: Davis or Frelick.

Moe Mentum: Two celebrated contemporary novelists who do not appear on your Top 100 Novels list are Bret Easton Ellis and Jonathan Franzen. I know that just because a baseball prospect misses your Top 100 doesn’t mean he sucks, but curious about your opinions of these authors’ works? Considering either American Psycho or Freedom for my next read.
Keith Law: Didn’t like Franzen’s The Corrections. Never read anything else by him, or anything at all by Ellis.

Deke: This spring, most of the projection systems had Nick Madrigal forecast for 7, 8, 9 homers. Seems obviously ridiculous to me. Is that just a product of those systems not really knowing how to forecast someone with Madrigal’s profile? He’s such an outlier to the modern ballplayer that the projection systems just have to throw their hands up?
Keith Law: They’re not my systems, so that might be a better question for one of their developers, but I would guess that you’re right, although we have seen fewer than 7 HR in full seasons from batters recently – Yolmer Sanchez hit 2 in 2019 while qualifying for the batting title. Nobody has hit fewer than 2 while qualifying since 2014, though.

Appa Yip Yip: Are you buying what Julian Merryweather is selling?
Keith Law: In one-inning bursts, sure. Picked up about a grade of FB moving to relief.

Andy: The AS game decision was MLB taking some heat off of players/managers of whether or not they would participate. It’s one of the first actual items I can think of Manfred doing to help his players be marketed ahead of the game of baseball.
Keith Law: Howard Bryant reported that corporate sponsors really pushed MLB to move the game. I agree that it did help the players out, but it sounds like money talked first.

Mac: Has Mayer overtaken Lawler as the top prep position player?
Keith Law: No.

Jack: Are the A’s really this bad?
Keith Law: No, but I don’t think they’re a 95-win team underperforming, either.

Adam: I second the Tabla recommendation, or Supra, their first restaurant. You haven’t lived until you’ve tried khachapuri (basically a giant boat filled with cheese and a whole egg). My question: how is DeGrom doing it??? First start against the Phillies, he was sitting 98-101 and hit 102. If that’s his velocity now, maybe the Mets will finally win when he starts occassionally.
Keith Law: I have had a peinirli, the Greek equivalent, and yes, it’s great. (Supposedly brought to Greece by emigrants from the Caucasus.) As for deGrom, I don’t really know the answer. He’s an outlier of the best possible kind.

Jason: Do you think Josh Lindblom can be of service in MLB? I believe you’ve said as a reliever. I hope the brewers keep him in the pen.
Keith Law: Yes, in relief.

Mike: Best breakfast place in az
Keith Law: 1. Hillside Spot. 2. Crepe Bar 3. Matt’s Big Breakfast.

Creedreader (TJ): Vlad jr. was touted as the first prospect with a consensus 80 hit tool. Is this true in your estimation? What does it mean that Wander Franco is the next prospect with an 80 hit tool? Has this happened before but wasn’t known because of the presence of the internet or are these two prospects truly remarkable in this respect? Has there ever been a prospect with an 80 hit tool that has underperformed or not been a major league regular? Really interested in your take on this and any other thoughts you have on a prospect being rated 80 on that particular tool which seems more qualitative and important than all the others
Keith Law: It was not true, IMO, and I think subsequent events have borne that out, although to be clear I still expect great things from his bat.

Frank: How does Henry Davis compare to other top of the draft catchers in recent years like Bart and Rutschman?
Keith Law: Better than Bart, below Rutschman.

Matt: I’ve noticed since being vaccinated, I tend to laugh (behind my mask) when I see people that refuse to wear one. Like, if you want to ignore science, fine. But sooner or later, you will get got. Am I a dick?
Keith Law: The problem is that those people ignoring science will get other people got. And then we all lose.

Santaspirt: I wonder if all the anti-DH people realize that the DH is optional. So even if it’s universal, teams don’t have to use one. I mean if it’s truly the better option for the game, I’m sure all their favorite teams will choose not to employ it.
Keith Law: Fair point. Watch how fast those 15 NL teams run towards the DH when they can.

ajd: One of the things I’ve struggled with recently while reading sportswriting is how many journalists seem to be carrying water for teams or MLB in general. I realize this isn’t anything new, but it’s depressing. How do you, as someone who is inside the game, handle this stuff? Laugh it off? Ignore this? Or is it just not a big deal?
Keith Law: When appropriate, I try to provide a contrary and I hope more objective viewpoint, with evidence.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. A reminder that The Inside Game is indeed now out in paperback, and you can buy it anywhere you like – Midtown Scholar has many signed copies available right now. Thank you all for reading, and, for those of you who’ve already bought the book, thank you as well.

My predictions for 2021 are now up for for The Athletic subscribers.

My second book, The Inside Game, comes out in paperback on April 6th. Next Wednesday, April 7th, I’ll be appearing in a live, virtual event with fellow author Will Leitch through Harrisburg’s Midtown Scholar bookstore. Your ticket purchase also gets you a personalized, signed copy of my book.

Keith Law: It hits like a hammer when I’m that to someone else. Klawchat.

HomerSomethingSomething: Just finished The Inside Game – great work! Jarren Duran looks like he’s made serious strides at the plate since 2019 but his routes and reads have been awful this Spring. Do you think he can stick in CF or does he end up a corner guy?
Keith Law: I do believe in the swing changes, but wouldn’t judge any fielder too much based on spring training. He’s certainly athletic and fast enough to handle CF. (I haven’t seen any of his fielding misadventures, though.)

Andy: What are the odds Bo Naylor stays at C for the Indians as he moves up the minor league ladder?
Keith Law: At this point, probably around even money, with a better chance that they move him to get his bat in the lineup more than that they move him for defensive reasons.

Todd Boss: Carter Kieboom question; he just had a very public 2021 Spring Training audition failure.  He’s only 23 … but something feels like he’s at a serious cross roads in his career right now.  Does he need a change of scenery?
Keith Law: He might. Maybe just going to AAA and playing 2b exclusively would help? That said, I was always kind of the low man on his bat. I didn’t see this potential 60 hit tool, not in his bat speed and not in his overall approach.

Andy: If Chris Rodriguez can stay healthy does he have the stuff to be a legit #2 SP down the road?
Keith Law: Yes, but he’s never stayed healthy, and they took my 1000-to-1 bet from a few weeks ago against him appearing in the majors … which I said would be a stupid move at the time. I stand by that: He’s thrown 9 innings in 3 years, nothing above A-ball. How do you manage his workload this year, on a club that wants to contend, while also setting him up to return to starting in 2022? Have they closed the door on him as a starter in the long term?

Will: Keith, what are your expectations for Pache this year? Is a 250/320/400 slash line crazy?
Keith Law: I’d expect more like a .250/.290/.440 kind of line, with a lot of HR but that low OBP.

G: I know you had Ke’Bryan Hayes as the most deserving player for ROY last year, and he’s still eligible this year as he hasn’t yet hit his Rookie eligibility requirement. So my question is: Is it possible for a player to win ROY twice?
Keith Law: It is not. Last year’s winners are ineligible this year by rule. I remain a huge Hayes fan but his lack of any voter support last year has further convinced me that there are enough voters who just don’t take voting seriously, and that someone like Hayes, who is one of the best defensive 3b in baseball right now, is at a disadvantage in awards voting because he’ll produce value in ways lazy voters just don’t recognize.

Todd Boss: Props to CWS for not playing service time games with Vaughn and naming him to opening day.  What are his chances of holding his own given limited minor league ABs?
Keith Law: I wonder if he’ll end up a high BB high K guy right now, because he was always dancing on the edge of being passive. That could be a reaction if he’s overmatched by big league pitching. I hope that’s wrong.

Andy: Could Lacy open in the Royals rotation in 2022 or is that too optimistic a timeline given the lost development time last year?
Keith Law: Very reasonable.

Josh: Is there anything in Vaughn’s athletic makeup that suggests he can play LF every day at an acceptable level?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I wouldn’t rule it out.

Andy: Does Tanajh Thomas have a future as a starter or does he profile more as a power RP?
Keith Law: Reliever.

Will: Keith, thoughts on Sean Newcomb in the bullpen? At 26, is he done as a starter?
Keith Law: Yes. Can’t see how he can improve his delivery to throw more strikes.

Eric: Overall thoughts on the Lindor extension? I think fair for both sides.
Keith Law: He would have gotten more on the open market, I think, but I can’t criticize him for taking this deal. Of the four SS headed for free agency this winter (including him), I think he might have been the best bet for a long-term deal. Better SS now than Correa or Seager, more likely to stay there, and better hitter than Story.

Andy: Manoah really opened some eyes this spring.  Is it feasible to project a late call up this year if things go well in the minors or is that too aggressive given his lack of minor league IP?
Keith Law: Reasonable, if they manage his innings to leave something in the tank for August/September.

Champdo: How good do you think Willi Castro could be at his peak?
Keith Law: Everyday player.

Andy: Why do you hate my team? Every national expert must pick my team to be the class of the league. Every player is in the best shape of their life. Every prospect is the next big thing. Clearly, you are the issue for not seeing this.
Keith Law: What never fails to surprise me is how none of the people whining about purported “bias” against their favorite teams realize that fans of every team say the same thing.

Ted: Hi Keith – providing that he stays healthy, can AJ Puk become a GUY with less velocity (93-94), but with better command? The reports from spring suggest that his velocity has gone down a bit, while he’s working on his command. Thanks.
Keith Law: I heard that directly from a scout – Alex Coffey had a great article where she used that quote from me – and I think he can still be a GUY, but he has to show he can stay healthy, which he also has not done.

Todd Boss: Seth Romero, your favorite Nats malcontent 1st round draftee, is on 40-man and did not log a single pitch in spring training despite no injury report.  What can we glean from this information as Nats fans?
Keith Law: “Undisclosed injury.” Uh-huh. Color me shocked.

Jason: Why is Andrew Cuomo still Governor of NY?
Keith Law: I’m really not sure. He should have been gone weeks ago.
Keith Law: I also don’t know if there’s a legal route to removing him right now, though.

Khalid: Is Tyler Soderstrom’s bat good enough that he can retain his value as a prospect even if he was moved off C to either 3B or LF?
Keith Law: Yes. I wrote about that in the offseason – he’s not a C, he is a prospect.

Kevin: Your thoughts on Luis Garcia. I thought I remembered that you like him.
Keith Law: The Astros’ starter, yes.

Kyle: Do you have insight on how beneficial it is to the bookstore to buy a popular book from a wealthy author? For example, Obama’s new memoir is $45 at my local store, $24 at Amazon. I like to support the local store but that’s a big difference for an already wealthy author.
Keith Law: I believe the bulk of that difference goes to the store, although I also believe that amazon buys their books from publishers at a lower rate than local stores do.

Anthony: I’m always blocked out of Meadowparty on mobile (sending this question from my laptop). Do you know if there’s any way around this so I can access your chats/movie reviews from my phone?
Keith Law: That issue should be resolved – might need to clear your cache – but it will work on Wifi. The issue was related to some site security software Hostgator told me I needed, but it turned out I didn’t need it and it caused problems with users on some mobile networks.

Jason: are you high on Garrett Mitchell?
Keith Law: He was on my top 100. I don’t know if that makes me high on him or not, but I ranked him higher than his draft position last year.

Michael: Tyler O’Neill reportedly worked on and had a great spring as far as a significantly better approach at the plate. If he can really translate that to regular season what kind of player do you think he could be?
Keith Law: I won’t buy that at all until I see it. His whole swing and approach were geared to pull the ball. That’s no small fix.

Jib: Justin Williams starting in RF for the Cardinals today. How do you like his chances to keep that spot?
Keith Law: I really hope he gets an extended shot. He can do enough of everything to be a soft regular in a corner, maybe not right now, but in time.

Hank: I noticed you tweeted that the baseball fan in you was happy that Kirk made the Jays. What players are your favourites purely as a fan, regardless of how good they might be?
Keith Law: Stroman. Roman Quinn. Dom Smith. Lindor. Javy Baez. Tatis Jr., of course. Quite a few, really – I just don’t go overboard in talking about them because I don’t want people to find bias where none exists.

Max: Keith, sell me on Drew Waters as a future star in CF?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s even a regular.

Guest: Thanks for doing these chats, sir. The indie (sic) league team I follow just signed Anfernee Grier, a former #1 pick by Arizona. His career has been a tire fire–was he seen at the time as a bad pick?
Keith Law: Yes, or at least as high-risk medium-reward. Hit well his junior spring until conference play started, and then he cratered. Never did learn to pick up breaking stuff.
Keith Law: I took too long to mute the announcers. Must still be spring training for me too.

Jason: So do the Mariners keep Kelenic down a few extra days or weeks past the service time marker to create a plausible defense to the claim he’ll make?  Players never win those arguments, but there usually isn’t an exec on tape admitting to the plan.
Keith Law: Maybe? I have a feeling we’ll see him sooner because they’re aware the league, his agent, and even their fans are watching.

wrburgess: Does Justus Sheffield show enough improvement this season to meet the potential you saw previously?
Keith Law: Not sure he’s ever going to be hitting 97 with a plus slider like I saw from him in the AFL, but I think he’ll be league-average this year.

Chris: Kinda feel like the Mets should’ve traded Dom Smith for some pitching? With no DH this year he’s gonna struggle to see the field (he’s unplayable in LF IMO)
Keith Law: I have thought that for a while, but I also think they were betting on a DH this year, and they don’t want to deal a guy who has turned out to be one of the most popular players on the team. I can’t completely fault them for either.

Your fellow citizens: What are your thoughts on folks thinking Covid is almost over?   Sad to see so many selfish people ruining what could be a strong recovery and good health for everyone!  Everyone, please still wear your damn mask!
Keith Law: It was inevitable. States opening back up too quickly has led to complacency, and that’s leading to new waves of cases. Good job, everyone.

Dave: Hi Klaw. Thanks for the chats. Enjoyed the Inside Game. Are you planning a third book? Between Casas, Downs, Duran and Jimenez who has the highest ceiling and who in your opinion is the most likely to reach their ceiling?
Keith Law: Kicking around an idea for a non-baseball non-fiction book. Jimenez has the highest ceiling, but he’s not ranked first in their system, because I don’t think he has the probability of the other guys.

Appa Yip Yip: Did you see anything different on what Manoah was doing this spring compared to when last you saw him?
Keith Law: No but the TV angle doesn’t show me everything and if he’s changed something minor I might have missed it.

JJ: If Bobby Dalbec plays 140+ games this year, can he surpass Mark Reynolds’ single season record of 223 strikeouts for the season?  I get that I’m not supposed to care about contact any more, but it’s getting ridiculous.  Boring, and ridiculous.
Keith Law: Yes, he could.

Josh: Will the owners feel even a hint of shame when they cry austerity & lock out players after a season where two shortstops were guaranteed 681 million dollars?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. They have no shame.

Kevin: Any college coaches thank you for pointing out how to get Jud Fabian out?
Keith Law: 50% strikeout rate in SEC play. His defenders on Twitter have gotten awfully quiet.

section 34: Keith, isn’t “service time manipulation” really just good business practice?
Keith Law: Yes, if your entire goal is profit maximization.

mike t: Is it possible for pitchers with relatively straight fastballs to add movement? I’m thinking about Mitch Keller in particular
Keith Law: I know teams that believe this is possible through pitch design, altering grips and seam placement. I think we’re still seeing the results of these experiments, and whether pitchers can do that without losing too much command. (I think some will. It’s good progress.)

Adam: Considering the layoff between actual games, should we be really excited by how *good* certain prospects like Bobby Witt and CJ Abrams have looked so far this Spring?
Keith Law: No. I mean, you can be excited, but don’t let it change your rational opinions of those players.

Adam: Considering the late bloom of his career, how dominant does Jacob DeGrom need to be for how long to make a serious Hall of Fame case for himself? Does one more Cy Young award get him there?
Keith Law: I think it’s going to be really hard for him. He’ll have to stay healthy well into his 30s and keep working as a starter, or his bulk numbers are going to pale next to other starters in the Hall (where the standards for SP haven’t changed enough to reflect changing usage patterns).

TomBruno23: Reminder of the time Gregg Jefferies received ROY votes in 1988 and 1989.
Keith Law: Can’t miss!

Dr. Bob: I’m not a big pomp and circumstance guy in any situation, but I make two exceptions: Opening Day and Game 1 of the World Series. Give me all the hoopla along with the game. Baseball is back, baby.
Keith Law: My excitement is a little tempered by the state of the world, but yes, it is very, very good to have baseball back.

Ben (MN): My opening day meal tradition is Kramarczuk’s Brats (sold at Target Field) with onions and saurkraut. It just makes me feel like baseball is finally here. What’s your favorite stadium/baseball meal?
Keith Law: I almost never eat at ballparks, sorry.

Jose: Your thought on Nats prospects Israel Pineda. Thanks.
Keith Law: He’s #14 on my Nationals prospect rankings.

Coach: Do you think Hoerner is going to hit?
Keith Law: I do, enough for him to be an everyday guy, but not enough to be a star.

Nick: I think you’ve read most of David Mitchell at this point. What was your favorite? I think mine is still Cloud Atlas.
Keith Law: I’ve read 5/8 and would agree, but I know people who love Black Swan Green.

Mac: Who do you think will be the third college pitcher off the board?
Keith Law: Gunnar Hoglund.

Chris: Gleyber let a reachable one get by him, time for the “he cant play short!” rants to begin.  Joking aside, what will they do with DJ signed for 6 yrs and Gio ensconsed at 3B if Glevber cant, in fact, play short, esp with the big group coming up as FA?
Keith Law: They’ll sign one of those FA and trade Gleyber, or move him to third and trade Gio. I can’t see them letting either of those guys stop them from signing a premium free agent.

TomBruno23: Watched Christian Little at all? I know Vandy has some other big names on the staff, but wondering your thoughts on a kid who in a normal world would be a senior at CBC High School in St. Louis instead of pitching mid-week for the #1 team in the country.
Keith Law: I have not, but I can’t emphasize enough what an incredibly bad idea it is for high school players to matriculate early in college and skip the draft entirely. This is coaches trying to make an end run around MLB teams, and the big losers are the players, who miss out on an opportunity for MLB teams to offer them a lot of money that they can still, if they choose, decline to accept.

Ben: New to your chats, thank you. Why do virtually all prospects with 70-80 power have a propensity to strike out so often?
Keith Law: When you swing that hard, you’re going to miss a lot.

Joe: When will the Blue Jays realize Danny Jansen isn’t that good and unleash Alejandro Kirk to his full potential?
Keith Law: Give them time. I’m sure they’re still wondering how much to buy Kirk’s bat since he had no time above A-ball before last fall.

elGuapo: What would you do with Aquino now that he’s out of options? Can he be a regular (.800+ OPS in ML and AAA)? Or is he just a high K guy the Reds seem to hate for good reason.
Keith Law: I’d waive him. He’s not an .800 OPS guy (or a 100 wRC+ guy) going forward.

Kevin: Given the short shelf life that catchers have, if you were Baltimore would you even have Adley catch another inning in the minors considering his D is already major league good?
Keith Law: They’re going to be so bad this year that I’m not sure there’s a real benefit to rushing him now. Maybe midyear? He’d be two years past his draft day anyway.

Grover: Have you given up on Willie Calhoun?
Keith Law: I was never a huge believer. He has no position and I don’t think the bat plays at DH.

Chris: It took til the 2nd batter of the season for the announcers to mention Cole’s salary.  Funny how they never mention an owner’s net worth.
Keith Law: They know who pays their salaries.

Mike: Ignoring the lost income angle, it is bad developmentally for position players to choose college over starting a professional career?
Keith Law: That will depend on the player. Some guys really do need college, or will make more money after playing at a good D1 program. Anthony Rendon wasn’t a top ten kind of player out of high school, but he might have gone 1-1 if he hadn’t hurt his shoulder his junior year at Rice.
Keith Law: Some is development, some is just seeing a guy regularly against better competition.

Kevin: Gore seems to still be having some command trouble. Any concern?
Keith Law: It was 11 innings. No.

Todd Boss: Speaking of kids who graduated early to run off to college: Nate Savino and UVA.  He was 1st round talent projected as a rising HS senior … now he’s UVA’s mid-week starter?  If he was that good … how is he unable to beat out middling upperclassmen starters who are currently leading UVA to a losing record?  Was he over-rated coming out of HS?  Has he regressed?
Keith Law: I didn’t see him on Saturday, but I don’t think he’s regressed as badly as Mike Vasil, who might have lost $2 million by telling teams not to draft him.

section 34: Keith, on “service time manipulation” — it seems to me that smart teams would do it not just to maximize profits (though that’s also a benefit), but to keep players for an extra full season. Not every team is the Dodgers or Mets and can afford to pay the market-rate salary of a superstar player. Do you disagree?
Keith Law: Yes, I do. Sending guys to the minors who don’t need to go there stops their development. It might cost you a win or more in the majors that year. And it’s always based on the assumption that you know what a player will be worth six or seven years into the future. Any such projections should have enormous error bars around them, at the least.

Nitelight62: I think a 14 year Major League career qualifies as not missing…..
Keith Law: Jefferies was supposed to be the best prospect in baseball, or close to it, and he was done as a regular at age 27, with 19 career WAR.

danaez: You seem to balance a wide variety of interests in addition to your family and professional lives. Are you just naturally good at compartmentalizing? I struggle with it and too often end up not getting much done because I’m overwhelmed/distracted.
Keith Law: I do compartmentalize, but I’m also fortunate in that I can integrate family and some of those interests – my wife is just as avid a movie fan (and Oscar completist) as I am. She and my daughter both enjoy board games and I think my stepdaughters are headed that way (I concede some possible influence in that department). My wife has also encourage to try or re-try activities I didn’t think I’d enjoy, like skiing or running. So a lot of those outside interests become family activities too.

Merrick: Hi Keith! Was fun seeing Andre Jackson and Michael Grove throw back-to-back innings recently after learning about them from your Dodgers list. Both appear to have exciting stuff. Do you think either might be a bullpen candidate in October?
Keith Law: Grove more likely. Jackson I think is further away from MLB-ready.

Michael: Cardinals are batting Goldschmidt 2nd, Arenado 3rd, Dejong 4th and Carlson 7th today. Maybe I’m wrong but the line up seems a lot better moving Carlson into the 2nd spot to give a guy who looks like he will get on base a good amount and hit with some power in front of Goldschmidt and Arenado. What do you think?
Keith Law: Probably Shildt being conservative with Carlson, who was way better in September in a very small sample. If Carlson is a good OBP guy this year, why not lead him off?

Mike: Hasnt Vasil been pretty good for UVA?  What happened to him to kill his draft stock?
Keith Law: Results are fine, stuff has not been what it was in HS.

HashtagSSS: Find any good coffee places in Charlottesville last weekend?
Keith Law: I drove down and back in one day. Moe’s BBQ has amazing collard greens, though.

Jeff: Thanks for the chats Keith. Any thoughts on moving the pitchers mound back to help the hitters a bit?
Keith Law: I don’t like the idea of changing field dimensions unless they’ve already tried changing more mutable things like the strike zone.

Andy 2: How much are the Cubs going to enjoy the last season of Kris Bryant? 6 years ago this wasn’t the plan for what they would be with his extra season.
Keith Law: Right, but they manipulated his service time as if they were sure they’d be contenders in 2021 and he’d still be a star.

Allen: Thoughts on Sonny Gray’s next few years? Can he be a #2 starter for a while? Better?
Keith Law: I’ll go with above-average starter but not an ace (top 20 or so in baseball).

devilinlaw: Who’s excited to watch the pitcher bat again in the NL?
Keith Law: Nobody!

Jay: How will the Pirates screw up the 1st pick? Take Del Castillo because he’d likely take less and they need MiLB C depth?
Keith Law: I think Leiter’s the most likely guy right now, but if they went college bat, I feel like Davis would be more likely. Taking the next-best guy can be a viable strategy if you get the right overpays later.

Jay: @devilinlaw Who’s excited to see Catchers hit? Nobody
Keith Law: In 2019, catchers hit .238/.309/.408, and pitchers hit .128/.159/.163. This is a stupid “point” and people need to stop making it, because it is stupid and annoying and wastes everyone’s time.
Keith Law: If pitchers hit like catchers, there would be no calls for DHs, and pitchers would win MVP awards all the time.

Trevor: Looked like Miami (OH)’s Bachman missed a few weeks, not sure if it was injury related or not, but then came back two starts later and struck out all 9 batters he faced. Looking forward to your draft prospect list update
Keith Law: Injury, yes, supposedly has come back fine. Top half of the first round stuff.

Guest: What are you thoughts on Amed Rosario playing CF in Cleveland and will they be able to get more production out of his tools than the Mets?
Keith Law: I’d really like to see him get a long trial there in the minors first. Don’t move a SS to CF in the majors and expect him to take to it immediately.

Jesus: Dom Smith huge year ?
Keith Law: I’ve been a believer since he was drafted. He can hit, and he has real power.

Pete: I’m excited about Alejandro Kirk. Who’s bat would you rather have for the next 5-10 years, his or Will Smith’s?
Keith Law: I would gladly take either. I feel better about a 10-year projection for Smith than for Kirk, though.

mike t: Regarding Pirates, wasn’t the problem with the previous regime more that they underdeveloped the talent they had, rather than drafting lesser players i  order to sign them for less? Either way,, the jury is still out on Cherington
Keith Law: Yes, I agree with that. They had some head-scratchers in the draft (Will Craig?), but also had some really good picks that didn’t work out as expected or are still TBD.

JR: Getting my vaccine next week. Excited to see games in person this year. #fyeahbaseball
Keith Law: I’m eligible to sign up on Tuesday, so I’m hoping that means I’ll be able to get on a plane before the end of the month. Everyone who can get vaccinated should get vaccinated, not just for yourself, but for your community.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for all of your questions. The Inside Game is out in paperback on Tuesday. Here’s hoping I can sign your copies some time this year!

I have another new board game review up at Paste, looking at Renature, the newest collaboration from Wolfgang Kramer and Michael Kiesling, two designers whose games I’ve liked when they work on their own but whose joint efforts have left me cold – until this one.

Keith Law: Pay attention, it’s not hard to decipher. Klawchat.

Ifickey: Did you get a chance to scout Nick Bitsko? If he wouldn’t have reclassified, where would he rank in this upcoming draft?
Keith Law: Never seen him. His season hadn’t started last spring when the world ended. He’d be in the same range, late first round, this year, but given the shoulder surgery he should be very glad he reclassified and signed when he did.

TomBruno23: Jack Leiter, 124 pitches…managerial malfeasance?
Keith Law: No, but pointless. He’s got a $6-8 million payday in less than four months. There’s no good reason to push him just so in 20 years he can say he threw a no-hitter in a mid-season SEC game.

Guest: Any hope for Luis Urias or has that ship sailed? Looks like neither the bat or OBP skills have shown up with him thus far in Milwaukee.
Keith Law: I don’t give up on guys with a history of hitting in the minors that quickly.

Jon: Is Corbin Martin a top-60 (give or take) pitcher this season? Is that expecting too much too soon?
Keith Law: I’m a big fan but since he is still just coming back from TJ that feels like a very optimistic projection.

Bryan: Dylan Cease’s BB problems have never seen to go anywhere. Can he be a competent starter at 4.5-5 BB/9? What is the ceiling if he gets it to 3 or so?
Keith Law: Potential #2 starter if he gets to average control, but can he get there when hitters hit his fastball as well and as hard as they do?

Pete: With the glutton of Braves pitching, do you see Bryse Wilson or Touki Toussaint making an impact this season or beyond, starting or out of the pen? Or will it have to be with another team if Atlanta won’t give them some run?
Keith Law: I assumed after they optioned Wright that Wilson would be in the rotation. Touki really has to work out of the pen for now and earn a rotation spot by throwing more strikes. It’s premium stuff, maybe ace stuff, but he has to be able to get it in the zone consistently.

Scott: Any good plan for Taylor Trammell this season? Just stick him in LF and see how it goes?
Keith Law: I’d start him in AAA. It’s become clear in the last year or so that his bat just isn’t as advanced as we (me, analysts, some scouts) thought it was. I do know one pro scout who was always a skeptic, though. Thought he was too passive in A-ball and wouldn’t hit better pitching.

Kevin: Could Brandon Marsh go .275/.350/.450 with 500 ABs this year? 15+ HR/SB?
Keith Law: I might take the under on the OBP for his rookie season.

Rod: I know to not read into ST stats too much but the Pirates look…..good? And Keller, the supposed ace, is the worst performing pitcher thus far. 1) What are the expectations for him – will he eventually be pushed into a relief role? 2) Obviously Adam Frazier and Kevin Newman aren’t going to hit .500 but the bat-to-ball skills seem elite. Frazier worth anything in a trade? Would you look to move Newman with a hot start or is he one of the guys you can start building around with Hayes, maybe Reynolds too?
Keith Law: The Pirates are not good. Let me disabuse you of that notion up front. They’re one of the two worst teams in the NL, even with some interesting guys. Keller has to find a weapon to get lefties out. He can kill RHB with the FB/CB but without a viable option for LHP he’ll never get close to his potential – I would argue his arsenal right now does not keep him in the rotation. I’ve long been a Newman fan, but he and Frazier may have too similar skill sets to both have roles here going forward.

Dan: I know you listed Gregory Polanco in the breakouts section…but what is a breakout for him? Is it All-Star level? A 2 win season? The tools are just gross if he could do the health thing.
Keith Law: I’m saying a 4-5 win season. 2 WAR would not be a breakout for him, or really anyone. If I think a player is going to break out, I am definitely hoping for more than 2 WAR.

Dan: The starts have been unreal for both Paxton and Robbie Ray – are they reclamation projects that you believe will be reclaimed for lack of a better word?
Keith Law: Both are good gambles, but spring training isn’t telling us anything.

Leo: Are velocities something that we can look for in Spring Training to be useful? It seems like Charlie Morton and Patrick Corbin both have regained a bit on the fastball, should that point towards better success than last year for both?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s one thing I think is potentially useful – a significant change in velocity in either direction. Corey Kluber struggling to hit 90 is a real problem. Dellin Betances did that two years ago and it was a sign he was hurt.

Greg: Any legitimate plan for Garrett Richards this year? Just throw him ’til his arm falls off?
Keith Law: I’m fairly sure the Red Sox have a plan, and that that’s not it.

Adam: I know you’re not a fantasy player, but each year it seems there is a guy drafted in 10th round or later that returns 1st round value. Nick Senzel a qualifier for you? He looks sharp already. Anyone else that you think could fit the profile?
Keith Law: He was a breakout candidate for me in 2020 but then came down with COVID-19 and wasn’t the same when he came back. I’m a believer, though.

Harrisburg Hal: As a fan, what is the best way to pressure MLB to move ASG in light of GA voting restrictions?
Keith Law: I doubt fans can move the needle in any way here, but I had a thought this morning: What if Black MLB players all declined invitations to play in the All-Star Game? Or announced now that they would boycott? The last thing MLB wants is that kind of publicity, not this year, not when they’re supposedly making a big push for DEI across the game.

Andy: Are the Reds kidding themselves trying Suarez at SS?
Keith Law: I mean, he was a shortstop once, and was actually a decent one. It might be a better option than anything else they have on hand.

Rick: Thanks Keith for all your work outside of baseball. Do have a baseball question though. Do you think Chisholm and/or Rodgers will eventually make it to allstar caliber players or just too many warts?
Keith Law: I’m all in on Jazz. Rodgers has two main obstacles: He can’t stay healthy, and he’s not selective enough at the plate. The latter could be improved. The former, though … well, he’s hurt again, and now losing more playing time he needs.

Michael: Hey Keith – not a prospect question, but we are hearing a lot from local media here in Philly about this being a huge Zach Eflin breakout season.  Should I buy the hype?  Have you seen anything that would indicate he is anything more that a potentially solid #3?
Keith Law: I think a solid #3 is about what he can be. The Phillies messed with his repertoire a bit, but I don’t think he ever had a higher ceiling than that, not without some significant change in his arsenal.

Kevin: Blink twice if you need help from someone forcing you to read the “mushroom coffee” ads on your podcast. I thought you pushed back at ESPN about an ad read (many moons ago), and figured fake coffee would have fit that same criteria. Either way, love the pod and thanks for the chats!
Keith Law: I have declined a couple of ads, and I often omit words from copy if I think they’re untrue or too pseudosciencey. That mushroom coffee is actually real coffee with some mushroom powder mixed in. They sent me a bag. I don’t like it.

Isaac: No one was “low” on Bobby Witt, but may we be underrating his potential? Only see his highlights, that swing gets through the zone awfully fast and mixed with that angle, it looks an awful lot like the man in Anaheim. Could Witt be a generational talent type?
Keith Law: I appreciate you prefacing that by saying no one was low on him … everyone’s got him rated pretty highly, especially for a guy who’s nearly 21 and has barely played. Even this winter I had execs from other clubs saying they weren’t sure about his hit tool, and while I know he’s been the flavor of the month, it’s still spring training and the hype is out of proportion. I don’t think he’s anything like the man in Anaheim – Trout was over a year younger on draft day, and at Witt’s age Trout was already the best player in baseball.

Freddie: Is CJ Abrams a potential #1 overall prospect, he seems to check off more boxes every time I blink
Keith Law: He checked off two more while you asked that question. And the answer is yes.

Fred: Do you still view Mize as a top of the rotation type? Seems like he gained a few ticks on his velocity. Is it just experience he needs, or is there another reason he seems to get hit harder than you’d expect considering his apparent raw stuff
Keith Law: I do still view that as his ceiling. He has to either miss more bats with his fastball or pitch with it less.

Scott: Do the A’s stay in Oakland?
Keith Law: Inertia says yes. Economics says no.

Ahammer: Is B.Doyle a legit prospect in Colorado? I have friends that are constantly hyping him, but I need more considering his age and level, or more from someone that knows what they’re talking about. These friends..don’t have the best track record, lol
Keith Law: Yes he’s legit but he really needs to play. He’s 23 with almost no pro experience and he played D2 ball in college, so we really have no idea if he can hit.

IF-land: Hi Keith, you seemed to hold up pretty well this last year, as many of us that battle mental health have had a rough year (not assuming you haven’t, but your writing has been great all year). Personally, I can’t wait for Baseball, getting to ball games will seem like a break from the mundane. Have you got out to games in person yet, last I recall your last game was scouting Veen. Hope your spring allows you to get out to games as we all enjoy your write ups
Keith Law: Thank you. I’m supposed to drive down to UVA tomorrow to see Miami and Adrian Del Castillo, which, as you remembered, will be my first game since Veen. It’s been about 54 weeks. I feel like I’m about to fly to Mars.

Sowers: Cleveland has seem to unlock the secret to develop pitchers that don’t seem to have the highest pedigree. Who would you think increases their value most in their system between Espino, Hankins, wolf, burns or the allens.  Is there a type of pitcher the develop better? Seems like burns falls more in line with the pleasac, Bieber mold
Keith Law: Espino if he stays healthy. Burns if you think Espino won’t do so.

H.cows: If Adley Rutschman was a RF, Would he still be viewed as a top 25 prospect? Is the bat good enough that it would play anywhere, or is it just that good in comparison to others at his position and stage?
Keith Law: Top 50 for sure. Top 25 might depend on the year.

Isaac: With Gimenez looking locked into the SS role in cleveland, who do you see ad the 2B in say 2023-24, seems like they have a ton of players that are pretty similar up the middle
Keith Law: I don’t think Gimenez is good enough to block their parade of SS prospects.

Rick: Apparently Kimbrel hasn’t been looking too good in Spring Training.  He hasn’t looked good since leaving Boston except for a short run at the end of last season.  He still has good stuff, but he’s reminding me of a former Cubs Closer Marmol who was all over the place. Think Kimbrel keeps the closing job or does he end up getting cut mid-season? Thanks
Keith Law: There’s a more likely option in the middle, where they keep him but he’s no longer the closer. The unavoidable truth is that closers – relievers of any sort, really – don’t last. Kimbrel held his peak longer than most.

KIL-cle: Because of the shortened season last year, should we be expecting a noticeable uptick in injuries to position players ad well as pitchers, in your opinion.
Keith Law: I wrote about that this week. I don’t know the answer – no one does – but I have an opinion, at least.

KIL-cle: Amed Rosario had a nightmare game in CF last week, but it was his 1st ever game there. Could be be an ultimate utility type for Cleveland, or would moving him maybe benefit both sides in this case?
Keith Law: As long as they just pick a position and leave him there, I think he’ll be fine. Moving him all over the place when he has no experience doing so wouldn’t help his bat.

Kevin: I know spring training stats dont matter, and last year for Dalbec was a SSS with 8 HR in 80 ABs, but realistically do you think he could hit 35-40 HR playing a full season this year?
Keith Law: I don’t. He’s going to swing and miss too much fort hat.

Jon: RIP Larry McMurtry.  Favorite novel of his?  I love The Last Picture Show.  The movie version is outstanding and might be better than the novel.  One of the great casts of all time.
Keith Law: I’ve only read Lonesome Dove, which was incredible despite its length.

Herb: It seems like many of the rules they are experimenting with in the minors seem geared to helping the running game, is that something you would like to see increase. Personally, I love going to games in the 90s and seeing Kenny Lofton get on 1st. A stolen base got the crowd going seemingly as much as anything. I think it shows the game within the game that the crowd really feeds on.
Keith Law: I do miss the running games of the ’80s and the race for 100 SBs. I think they’re exciting, but as many folks have written, they’re not a great strategy when the cost of a CS is so high.

Tony: It looks like the Marlins are going to have a pretty interesting rotation. I know your prospect rankings discussed Sanchez/Cabrera, but looking at the rotation as a whole how do you feel about those players and how to compare to each other regarding floor/ceiling?
Keith Law: I mentioned Rogers in my breakouts piece, even though I almost never include rookies, because he’s got a new slider that gives him a much higher ceiling than he had previously as a FB/CH guy with a 40 breaking ball. I don’t think the Marlins are going to see .500 this year but they’ll be the most interesting they’ve been in a decade.

Tony: If the draft were today, what would you estimate Jud Fabian’s range to be? Mid first to early second?
Keith Law: Late first to mid second, and dropping.

Wolf: Should transgender girls be able to win college scholarships in women’s sports?
Keith Law: Trans women are women.

Brent: Klaw, any idea who will fill in for Eloy in LF? I’d love for it to be Wild Thing Vaughn, but I’m a realist. Engel’s hurt too. Do you sign someone, just play 8…thanks
Keith Law: I worry about putting Vaughn in left when (as far as I know) he’s never played the OF. He might be Ryan Klesko out there. Maybe he gets hurt, maybe it impacts his bat. It’s not worth that risk.

Dungeon Master: Do you think the Mariners should go hard for one or two of the top free agents next year, especially a SS? Seems like with Kelenic, JRod, Haniger, Lewis, a bunch of solid role players, and the big 3 SP prospects they’re not far away from a pretty good team in a weakening AL West
Keith Law: I agree. Next winter is probably the beginning of the window where they should spend big to compete.

Mike: Not putting a ton of stock in spring training games, but Garrett Mitchell has a chance to be really fun, doesn’t he?
Keith Law: He can really run, and there’s enough bat-to-ball there to make that play, so even if he’s never actually good he should be an exciting player.

Danyul: Hi Keith – what role do you see garrett crochet playing for the sox this year
Keith Law: Reliever only, if he stays healthy.

Nick V: Has Groome’s ceiling lowered significantly due to his injury induced absences? I understand his bust potential is through the roof right now, but has any reports on his stuff being surprisingly good/bad?
Keith Law: No, his ceiling hasn’t lowered significantly. His curveball is more a 60 now than a 70, so it’s a little lower, but that’s the only real negative indicator right now.

Luke: Keith, loved the book. Can you speak to how the base rate affects the evaluation of Mississippi high schoolers (for example)? I understand how HS catchers and pitchers form a base rate, but for a geographic area what’s the commonality that should lump them into the same group? Level of competition?
Keith Law: Yes, level of competition. Applies to cold-weather kids too, although we’ve had more successes from high schools in the northeast than in Mississippi. There could be other variables involved as well – perhaps kids from the northeast are more likely to come from economically advantaged backgrounds that let them pay for outside coaching, or train at better facilities, or just get into more games.

Guest: Loved seeing the highlights of Rocker and Leiter recently. However, every time I see their pitch counts I think of you. Does their workload concern you at all?
Keith Law: It’s at the upper end of what PitchSmart considers acceptable. I’d really like to see Vanderbilt stop pushing them so hard every week. There’s just no good reason for it.

Santaspirt: What to make of DJ LeMahieu? Barely an average hitter by wRC+ in Colorado and then completely changes in NY
Keith Law: He’s made substantial use of the ballpark in the Bronx. Look at his home runs and where they’ve landed.

Guest: I know it’s just spring training, but the way Bell and Schwarber and Zimmerman (always a slow starter) have been swinging the bat in Florida has to bode well for the Nats’ lineup depth, right? Not that they’re all going to carry 1.100 OPS all year, but if they’re hitting pretty well this year that could have a major impact on the NL East. It feels like Washington has the widest variance range between “pretty forgettable” (if the bats aren’t there) and “95 wins” (if they all come up box cars).
Keith Law: Wrong. It’s just spring training. All of those guys could suck this year (I’m not predicting that) and three good weeks in March doesn’t change the probability of that happening.

Justin: Just watching some highlights, it seems like Rocker puts the ball where he wants it more often than Leiter does the same (granted, this is just a small sample in what Pitching Ninja provides on twitter), but I think Leiter is known as being the one more likely to have good command long term.   What are some things that scouts look for to say that someone without good present command may have good command someday.
Keith Law: That’s not accurate – Leiter does that at least as well as Rocker does. The biggest difference I hear from scouts on those two is that Leiter misses more bats with his fastball right now, while Rocker can show you a 70 slider (but hasn’t done so every start).

Generic MLB Player: Just so you know, I am in the absolute best shape of my career!
Keith Law: Good to hear! I am not.

justin g: Fernando Tatis was terrible the end of last year. Is it possible that his initial numbers are a mirage?
Keith Law: You’re asking if about 3 weeks in September tell us more than a year-plus of data that preceded it?

Jason (DC): Keeper league fantasy baseball and looking to add a prospect bat. Who do you like most long-term out of Nolan Gorman, Jarren Duran, Brandon Marsh, or Heliot Ramos? Thank you.
Keith Law: I’d go Duran, Marsh, Ramos, Gorman, in that order.

Pramit: I know that you (and many) tend not to fall for the “he’s in the best shape of his life” narrative that is created during the spring, but would you say Vlad’s weight loss could result in him having a breakout this year?
Keith Law: His weight never affected him at the plate. It’s how he swings. He’s hitting the ball hard but not squaring it up enough, getting on top of it to put it on the ground. Fix that and go have a milkshake.

eric: got my second pfizer shot, no issues, and the piece of mind and hope it brings is amazing.

EVERYONE: IF YOU CAN GET VACCINATED, GET VACCINATED!
Keith Law: Absolutely. I’m hoping Delaware will open it up to my category on the 1st. We’re so behind here.

Frank: Is there any chance Bobby Witt Jr makes the club for opening day?  Considering they are not going to contend this year wouldnt the royals be crazy not to manipulate his service time?
Keith Law: Witt Jr has never played a pro game outside of the complexes. I think promoting him what was once considered six levels and now would be five in one fell swoop would be, to use the technical term, crazy-go-nuts.

Jack: Is there any chance MLB actually moves the all-star game from Atlanta?
Keith Law: I doubt it – I really doubt it – but shame on everyone involved with a conscience if they don’t try.

Dave: Will Ryan McMahon ever happen?
Keith Law: I’m still in the yes camp. I know Sarah Langs of MLB.com called him a breakout candidate for 2021 too.

Eric: the apatow-type early-to-mid 2000s blockbuster comedies (40 yr old virgin, anchorman, old school, etc.) couldn’t – and shouldn’t – be made today. how does one reconcile laughing at and enjoying and quoting content that may have not struck one as super offensive 15-20 years ago, but now realizing how inappropriate and offensive it was to so many marginalized communities?
Keith Law: You have to draw that line for yourself. I believe works of art are largely products of their times. I happen to really like The Scarlet Pimpernel as a novel, but the anti-Semitic trope of the wandering Jew character would make it unpublishable today (for good reason), so it wouldn’t appear on any of my future rankings of novels, and I wouldn’t recommend that my kids read it. It popped up on a reading list for my daughter’s school when she was in 8th grade and I suggested that they reconsider it. Yet I also can recognize that the adventure story within is one of the best I’ve read in literature.

Kevin: what are the odds we see either a work stoppage or a strike for the 22 season?
Keith Law: Better than even.

Cory: Would you say that Lawlar, Rocker, and Leiter are clearly separating themselves from the rest of the draft class in their own tier, or is that still too early to say?
Keith Law: Take Lawlar out of that … he hasn’t looked like a top 3 guy so far. I don’t think 1-1 can be anyone but the two Vandy boys right now, but I also don’t think there’s an enormous gap between them and the next tier of college guys (Davis, del Castillo, Hoglund).

Mike: Banning the shift is ridiculous, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Dan: Is it at least slightly concerning that someone as polished as Torkelson has struck out 13 times in 24 PA this spring?
Keith Law: No.

Guest: In which film did you find the fictitious elements to be more distracting or detracting overall, Mank or The Trial of the Chicago 7?  For me it was the former because it felt out of place to begin with, in addition to being factually inaccurate, whereas in the latter those elements felt somewhat organic to the plot.
Keith Law: The latter, because they were so obviously fake. Sorkin just couldn’t help himself.

Dan: Why do you hate Nick Madrigal?
Keith Law: We were at Frost Gelato in Arizona at the same time. He was in front of me in line and he took the last scoop of Sea Salt Caramel. I’ll never forgive him.

RIP Jessica Walter: “I love all my children equally.”

“I don’t care for Gob.”
Keith Law: I’ll leave when I’m good and ready.

Mac: Do you really think MLB will crack down on pitchers using foreign substances and if so how do you see this affecting the (many) pitchers who doctor the baseball going forward?
Keith Law: Yes, but probably just at a cursory level, to do something without doing everything.

Jason: Will cryptocurrency end badly for a lot of people and investors?
Keith Law: Hasn’t every bubble, ever?

Bob: Bos and Tex both claimed that if scouts had seen more of Yorke and Carter they would have been drafted higher. They’ve both been to instructs and Yorke has been in camp with Bis so they have potentially been seen a bit. Should Sox and Rangers fans be feeling any more confident in those picks?
Keith Law: Not sure I buy that at all … it’s not that scouts didn’t see Yorke or Carter, but that they saw them and didn’t like what they saw. I had no trouble finding scouts who saw those guys last June.

Matt: Any “just missed” breakout predictions or players you considered but didn’t include in your article?
Keith Law: A reader mentioned Gavin Lux in the comments under that article and I think that’s a great call. I’ll gladly co-opt that pick and give them the credit.

Jesse B: How quick do you think Andy Pages can move through  the minors?
Keith Law: Really depends on the swing-and-miss. I just don’t think we know enough on him to say if he’s 3 years away or 4-5 years.

PJ: I’m curious about your view on eliminating the filibuster.  On one hand, it feels like the Dems could get a lot done in the next 18 months.  On the other hand, the Republicans could EASILY take back the Senate in 2022 or 2024, and there isn’t exactly a Supreme Court Democrats could use as a backstop for terrible far-right legislation that could pass.
Keith Law: It’s starkly anti-democratic and there have been calls to remove it from multiple people across the political spectrum for decades. If removing that restores voting rights before 2022, it’s worth doing.

Randy: Looking for some new places to buy coffee beans online. Any recommendations?
Keith Law: My most recent order was from Deeper Roots in Cincinnati (a Rwanda and an espresso blend).

Scott: I know how strong you feel about domestic abuse, do you think there is a legitimate quasi-every day center fielder option in the Phillies mix right now besides Odubel Hererra? Feels like the team is looking for an excuse not to give him the job but unless they’re believers in Roman Quinn bunting twice a game will they end up throwing their hands up and saying ‘we had no other choice’? How do you rank Kingery/Quinn/Haseley/Moniak/Haseley?
Keith Law: I’d put Kingery there in a heartbeat and put Odubel on a slow boat to nowhere.

Ridley: Editors make writers better and the writer gets credit for it. Bragging about an editor-free platform would be a bit of a self-own, wouldn’t it?

Also, the kind of writer who longs to free themselves from the editors is almost always the kind of writer who most needs them (in my experience, at least).
Keith Law: Sacca did back off his comments, and was gracious about much of the criticism he received. I don’t like seeing anyone kick a group that’s down the way editors – whose jobs have been gradually disappearing for 20 years, because, as you said, they do the work and don’t get credit, so any private equity douchebro could walk in and sack them without compunction – are right now.

JT: Would you let Manoah start the year in the pen, or is the surer way to starting still starting in the minors, such as they are?
Keith Law: I’d be fine starting him in relief and moving him to the rotation in June or so. Great way to break in a young starter.

Gerald: I recall that you were bullish on Ohtani as a pitcher but skeptical that he would be a productive MLB hitter. Has he exceeded your expectations as a hitter and, if so, has anything changed in his approach?
Keith Law: Correct and he has exceeded my expectations, but he also hasn’t really hit full-time. His swing gets so long I’m amazed teams aren’t trying to crush him with velocity inside more often. He has to guess right to get to it.

The Seaward: In spite of the governor’s ridiculous statement, most responsible businesses in Texas still requires masks. What on earth do the Rangers think they’re going to gain on opening day that will be bigger than the hit they’re going to take for the outbreak they cause?
Keith Law: They’re betting, as Gov. Abbott and so many political leaders have, that there won’t be an outbreak, and they’ll avoid any repercussions. Even here in DE, the Governor reopened things too early, and all our indicators are rising again … but it’s slow and nobody is making anything of it, even though the connection between looser restrictions and rising R0 and daily case rates is obvious. We’d need an explosion in cases for anyone to get mad. If there’s no explosion in cases after some Rangers home games, no one will care.

Owen: If killing the filibuster means that DC and/or Puerto Rico get admitted as states and there are 2-4 new Democratic Senators who will make it much harder for the GQP to regain power for the foreseeable future (plus, obviously, restored voting rights), it will be well worth it.
Keith Law: Fair point. Senate aside, there’s no fair and reasoned argument why the 3.8 million U.S. citizens in those two jurisdictions should lack the representations in Congress that the rest of us enjoy.

Punk in Drublic: Who are a few guys outside your top 100 prospects who you think have the most offensive upside?  Thanks.  And keep sticking to whatever is on your mind
Keith Law: Austin Hendrick, Pedro Leon, Jeremiah Jackson, Lewin Diaz, Mark Vientos, Patrick Bailey, Brenton Doyle.

Guest: How should MLB reconcile that the methods to win baseball games most efficiently (lots of swing and miss and K’s and not many balls in play) is completely opposite to the most exciting aspects of the game (balls in play, stolen bases, etc)?  Are there rule changes that could actually be effective instead of “ban the shift” windowdressing?
Keith Law: Sure, but they require will, and agreement on both sides. I like the idea of limiting pickoff throws, because it might increase basestealing, and because pickoff throws are the third most boring thing that can happen in a baseball game (number 2 is a manager arguing with an umpire, especially after he’s been ejected, and number 1 is a brawl).
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat – I have to finish my season predictions column in the next hour. I should be back for another chat next Thursday, and if you haven’t already pre-ordered it, the paperback edition of my second book The Inside Game will be out in just 11 days. Thank you all so much for reading.

Subscribers to The Athletic can see my list of prospects I can’t wait to see live in 2021, with one or two names for all 30 MLB teams.

Keith Law: No one gets hurt if they don’t act funny. Klawchat.

Dave: Got your tickets for the opening day superspreader event in Arlington?
Keith Law: I have to say I’m not keen to go to Texas at all unless I’m fully vaccinated. It’s a problem with multiple first rounders in the state.

Max G: Hey Keith, hope your first ski trip was both fun and painless!
Keith Law: It was actually my second ski trip, but my first in 31 years – so long that Brodie, the ski resort where I went in 1990, has been closed for over a decade. My wife is a much more avid skier and skied circles around me, but I didn’t get hurt and eventually finished on some short blue runs. Still working on stopping, though.

Eddie: How do you view the depth of hitting in this upcoming draft? It seems to lack offensive star power from the outside
Keith Law: I think that’s accurate. There could be a corner bat or two who emerge as late first round types like Aaron Sabato last year, where they really have to hit given their positional limitations, but I’m not confident in any of those names yet.

Isaac: On pure upside, is it Leiter and Lawler in the draft? Is Lawler a 1.1 upside type of player? Haven’t had a chance to see much about him. Thanks
Keith Law: I think most scouts would put Rocker and Hill in there too. And if you really mean pure upside, there are guys like James Wood who have enormous ceilings but also could fail to get out of A-ball because their hit tools might not be there.

Isaac: I’ve read that Tyler soderstrom looked good in the fall at instructs, was there anything in particular that you know of that stood out? Would you keep him behind the plate?
Keith Law: I’ve heard he hit extremely well and looked like he had very little chance to remain behind the plate. I’d probably give him a year there first before making a decision – usually I say to leave players at their toughest positions as long as you can, but if he’s not going to catch OR you just think his bat is so advanced that catching is going to slow his development, just move him to third base.

Tyler: In cleveland we have been hearing about valera’s swing for a few years but haven’t been able to see it in person yet. Does he have high upside offensive potential or his it more of hometown wishing? Or Planez for that matter. We seem to not be able to groom OF bats like we do other positions
Keith Law: Valera does have high upside as a hitter and was on my top 100 because of that. Alexfri Planez is much less of a known commodity because he’s barely played – I believe he broke a hamate bone after just a handful of games in 2019, so he’s barely been scouted. That injury should be completely healed, with strength returned, by now.

Tim (Columbus): Who is the better offensive player between Rutchsman and Torkleson?
Keith Law: I think Torkelson. But it’s not an enormous difference.

Jerry: Do you prefer an assigned closer, or is it better in your opinion to have everyone available when needed, not so much time specific?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s this black or white. I don’t think an assigned closer is necessary or optimal, especially since it would often require a pitcher to work too often on little to no rest. I don’t want my best reliever limited to one inning, and I don’t want him throwing three days in a row or four times in five days. However, knowing who you’re going to use in what situation is helpful for a manager beforehand. You don’t want him making too many battlefield decisions – some things you can plan before the games, so you do so, and then when the unexpected happens then you make those spur of the moment decisions.

Paul: If the Mets sign Lindor long term would Mauricio have enough bat to justify a move to 3rd?
Keith Law: I believe he will, although he’s not there yet, and it’s quite likely that Mauricio will be the better defender than Lindor by the time he reaches the majors (when Lindor will probably be 29 or 30).

Steven: Who has more star potential: Austin Hendrick or Luis Matos?
Keith Law: Hendrick might have more star potential but Matos is more likely to become a star.

Mindful: In a perfect world scenario where a player hits every aspect of their potential, who would be the best player in this upcoming draft? Is it Leiter, is that why you have him at 1, or is he more of a combination of potential and most likely to fulfill it? I suppose I always view a HS SS/CF as that “most potential” type.  Thanks for your time
Keith Law: Leiter has the ceiling/floor combination teams usually want at 1-1 now. I don’t think he’s the only or obvious choice at 1, and he may very well end up at 2 or lower in future rankings. I will say that last weekend, according to a scout I know who saw Vandy, Rocker was the better of the two, with a plus-plus slider he didn’t have the first two weekends, while Leiter’s breaking ball was closer to average. So it’s going to fluctuate.

addoeh: Who wins an Elmo-off, you or Passan?
Keith Law: I will put my Elmo and Cookie Monster impressions up against anybody.

Ben (MN): I recently participated in a virtual cocktail class to support a local bar. We made daiquiries (which I didn’t know are supposed to be non-blended) and the bartender talked all about the different types of rum. I didn’t realize there were such differences between Cuban, Jamaican, French, etc. I know you’re a rum fan, but do you have a favorite style of rum or any favorite rum-based cocktails? The bartender recommended Plantation 3 Stars as a good “workhorse” rum for newbies.
Keith Law: Plantation 3 stars is a blended white rum, which I generally avoid because it has less of the caramel notes I appreciate in rum. For mixing, I like anything aged in the 2-8 year range. Appleton has some excellent, inexpensive rums in that category, as does El Brugal. For sipping, I’d go with at least 10 years of aging. They mellow out substantially past that point. Unaged rum tastes too much like medicine.

Guest: In your write up of the top draft prospects, do you believe the top few are relatively close together or is Leiter (and maybe others) a cut above. I ask because I’m curious if the Pirates will try for an underslot deal if there is a relatively similar group at the top to have money to use elsewhere in the draft. Thanks!
Keith Law: I might do that, if they’re taking one of those top four guys – or someone else who emerges as a worthy 1-1 candidate. What you don’t want to see is them reaching down for someone who isn’t 1-1 good, like the Phillies did with Moniak in 2016, just to go over-slot with later picks.

RebWiseau: Sometimes there is a gap between how fans of a team view a particular prospect and how prospect evaluators view the same player (for example, the Red Sox fan community is much higher on Jarren Duran than you and your colleagues). Have you noticed any sort of profile for players like this where the fans are more excited than the industry about the future of the player?
Keith Law: Yes, they tend to be local media favorites. Local reporters write about these players, especially if they’re getting good info from player development, but fans don’t run that through the filter where every team likes their own players more than the industry does. Sometimes that player turns out to be every bit as good as the team says – Paul Goldschmidt comes to mind. Usually they don’t.
Keith Law: and I like Duran, BTW.

davealden53: Dee Strange-Gordon is making a case to be the Reds’ shortstop.  (Not a difficult case to make given that Kyle Farmer is the incumbent.)  Can Strange-Gordon regain value or is his bat gone for good?
Keith Law: I’d be more surprised if he can play shortstop. He was never great there in the first place and he’s how many years gone?

Steve Guitar: Intermediate guitarist getting back into it. Have you suggestions for both acoustic, acoustic-electric, and electric  Mitchell gear and any guitar pedals?  I remember you had a Mitchell acoustic no cutaway, they seem to make great valued instruments.  Thx for your help, I’d like to get back to playing regularly, (and getting my second vaccine today, f*ck yeah!)
Keith Law: I wish I could help but I own very little gear … I love playing but have never felt like I could justify spending much money on it.

Rich: Will you be doing a breakout candidates column this year?
Keith Law: Yes, it’ll run this week. I do that column every year, and predictions too.

davealden53: I know that you don’t consider players like Ha-seong Kim in your prospect rankings, but do you have any insights about how he will adjust to Major League pitching?
Keith Law: I heard quite a bit of skepticism about his ability to make enough contact to be a regular here when talking to scouts who saw him live or evaluated him on video. I’ve never seen him in person.

Chip: Klaw (kaw!, kaw!), do you think Rutschman can hit in MLB this year?
Keith Law: It would depend on your standard. Hit enough to be an average regular? Yeah, I’ll buy that. Hit enough to be a star in 2021? Seems optimistic.

Ben (MN): In this era, I don’t understand how teams can have an “edge” or be so much better than other teams in certain areas, other than in short stints. For instance, the Athletic had an article this week about whether some teams are better at increasing velocity than others. It now seems commonplace for teams to target staff from these smart organizations, and it would follow that those staff bring knowledge of that “edge” with them. When teams do find an edge, do they usually have some kind of internal strategy to keep that edge as long as possible?  Do teams just assume that edge is temporary and look for the next competitive advantage?
Keith Law: The last sentence is probably the most accurate but if teams really wanted to retain some of those edges for longer, they’d pay their staff more, rather than shedding staff as so many teams did last year under cover of the pandemic.

John: Thanks for the chat Keith! I have not heard much on Yadier Alvarez since the Dodgers DFA’d him last spring. Is he still with the club or have a future in the majors?
Keith Law: I may be way out of date but I thought he’d walked away. He has – had? – a ridiculously good arm, though.

Noah: Getting my second dose of the vaccine on Monday!  How do we convince the 30% or so anti-vax people to get it?  Herd immunity is usually cited as being achieved at around 90%.  You’re good with the numbers and facts and whatnot.  If only 70% get vaccinated, will those that are vaccinated be safe?
Keith Law: If you’re vaccinated, you’ll be safe from severe illness leading to hospitalization and possibly death. That’s a good outcome, but we aren’t likely to reach enough people without mandates (school & workplace) to get rid of the virus as a regular feature of life. You can be vaccinated and still get a mild case. Also, it’s not that 30% of the population is anti-vaccine; maybe 2-3% are truly anti-vaxxers, but the population as a whole has been fed so much disinformation, with Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube particularly culpable for letting it fester on their services, that people who get all their other shots (or get them for their kids) are now needlessly hesitant over this one.

Chip: Is Kenyon Yovan’s bat impressive enough to make him a prospect at DH?
Keith Law: I don’t think so – enough to be drafted, yes, but not enough to be, say, a top two rounds prospect.

Gums: Taillon seems to be the latest to switch to a shorter arm swing, a la Shane Bieber. Do you believe this lessens the injury risk for pitchers, and does it bode well for Leiter’s future as he has a similar arm path?
Keith Law: I don’t know about injury risk, but it has worked for many pitchers who had trouble repeating longer arm strokes, leading to worse command.

Adam D.: Do you believe the narrative that we have reached a “golden era” for prospects with more potentially high-end, young players in the minors than ever before? Or do you feel like the increased focus on prospects in general have just made a lot more of them known to fans in general, thus making it seem like there are more GUYS out there?
Keith Law: I think prospects are coming into pro ball bigger and stronger than they have at any point in history. That’s probably a big reason.

Phil in the UK: True or False: Counting sacrifice flies against a hitter’s on-base percentage is illogical, and the rule should be changed.
Keith Law: False. It’s completely logical. A sac fly results in an out. It should count as an at bat too.

Arty: Derrick Goold ran an article about how Delvin Perez committed himself to adding muscle and he’s supposed put on 20 pounds since 2019. I was a bit surprised he was invited to major league camp, but apparently reports on his progress are positive. From what you’ve seen of him, would getting stronger and adding weight help put him back into true prospect consideration?
Keith Law: He also has to hit. Yes, he’s had trouble with impact because he’s so small, but really he has to hit for us to have any discussion of his prospect status. Other than his draft spring, which ended with a positive test for a PED, he has never really hit well enough to project as an everyday player.

Noah: If the Mets don’t sign Lindor to an extension ASAP, can we stop pretending like Steve Cohen has done anything fundamentally good or different than the Wilpons?  In fact, he might be actively worse.
Keith Law: I don’t agree with that assessment.

John: Will voting rights actually be preserved prior to 2022?
Keith Law: God I hope so. It’s going to take some actual courage on the part of some Senate Democrats and perhaps a Republican or two.

Ben: Where would the top three arms in this year’s class (Leiter, Rocker, & Hill) rank among the last few pitching classes? Is this trio stronger than some of the last classes of top college arms?
Keith Law: I think they are – they’re at least on par with recent years. Likely better than 2020, definitely better than 2019, 2018, 2017, and 2016.

ChrisP: Is Braves’ Michael Harris a guy or a GUY?
Keith Law: More potential than GUY right now. Has to go out and hit. If he does that, he’s a GUY because of his other tools.

Sean M.: Also, just bought Smart Baseball. Great stuff so far- was fun remembering that twelve months I wondered if Edgardo Alfonso and Rich Aurillia were studs.
Keith Law: Thank you. Alfonzo was a guy I wanted to be better – seemed like he was capable of so much more and then you looked at some slightly advanced stats and realized he just didn’t produce.

Michael: Went down a rabbit hole of a GOP friend’s FB page and she’s trying to tell people the vaccine is dangerous, posting “articles” that link to supposed deaths after getting the vaccine or from the vaccine. Lots of people agreeing with her. Aside from deleting my FB account, do you have any advice for dealing with these types of people?
Keith Law: I would suggest at least an attempt to reason with her, for her own good and the good of your community, but with the expectation that it’ll go nowhere.

Jason: Does the addition of JBJ make the Brewers a slight favorite in the NL Central? I’m still expecting a tight 3 team race.
Keith Law: It helps them, certainly – good to see someone else trying to improve besides the Cardinals. I’d like to see the Brewers flip Garcia for some pitching.

Alan & Lou – Detroit: Give me some good news on the Tigers as a Detroit sports fan. Any chance they don’t finish in last like the Wings, Pistons, and Lions?
Keith Law: They’re very likely to finish last, but you should get a lot of Mize, Manning, Skubal this year, and that’s worth the price of admission.

Shane Bieber: Is skill or durability a bigger roadblock for Triston McKenzie becoming an ace?
Keith Law: Durability.

Concerned Fan: Keith, Yoan Moncada was visibly in pain last season as he played through complications from his COVID-19 experience. Now, he claims that he feels healthy and strong. But how can we be sure that he is not a victim of long-lasting COVID respiratory issues that will prevent him from being a high-level athlete ever again?
Keith Law: We can’t, can we? I didn’t realize he was struggling to that extent but he can’t be the only one.

Andrew Vaughn: Given that Andrew Vaughn is slated to be the White Sox full-time DH this year, how do you think he’ll adjust to MLB pitching? Love him as a prospect but worried that he’ll be overmatched right away.
Keith Law: My one worry would be that he might be too passive early on, and have to adjust that. I don’t think he’s just up there to walk, but that’s a big leap in ball/strike distinctions (and thus in required recognition) from college and a brief stint in A-ball to the majors with a year off in the middle.

Ben: If you had to pick one: Grierson or Leitch?
Keith Law: I’ll never tell.

Tom: Keith – have you ever read Robert Caro’s books on Robert Moses or LBJ? If so, would you recommend them?
Keith Law: I haven’t, because they’re very, very long.

Guest: Where do the Yankees start their top catching prospects in the minors? Breaux and Siegler HiA, Wells in LowA and Gomez back to GCL?
Keith Law: Seigler low A, Wells high A for me. Breaux has been very bad on defense in the majors.

Matt: Should the Jays just start the season with Austin Martin at 3B?
Keith Law: No.

Kevin: I know you dont like player comps. But how unfair are the Durran to Grady Sizemore comps?
Keith Law: Yikes. Wasn’t Sizemore a three-sport athlete in HS?
Keith Law: like, Duran’s a good prospect, but Sizemore was at another level in athleticism. Just couldn’t stay healthy.

Nate: Your thoughts on Cavan Biggio are well known at this point, but offense aside, I can’t be the only one thinking the Jays are crazy for trying to have him play significant innings at 3rd right? Not a scout but I just don’t think he has the arm strength or quickness to play there consistently.
Keith Law: I agree. He was more passable at second.

Jared: So Cleveland is just moving forward with Tito/Antonetti huh…
Keith Law: While I assume people in the organization knew more about Callaway than they’re letting on, we really don’t have good evidence on that yet. I’d like to see a real MLB investigation and then have consequences based on that. Right now we mostly have assumptions and the occasional rumor. I’m sure someone knew. I’d just like to be sure the right people are called to account.

Jim: Hi Keith. More likely to be a true #1 — Ian Anderson or Max Fried?
Keith Law: I lean Fried because he has the better arsenal overall.

Bill: The word is that Gavin Lux has “quieted” his swing and no longer has the throwing yips. Does he seize 2B (or SS if Seager leaves) for the foreseeable future?
Keith Law: Hope so. Was always a fan, still am.

Nate: Would you consider yourself a casual fan of college baseball outside of work? I like it but the lack of pitching depth for the most part can make it hard to watch at times, especially midweek games.
Keith Law: No, because of the tin bats, excessive bunting, and too-frequent late-game pitching changes.

Michael: I get that we all do things for our spouses, #solidarity, but do you “like” football or Pfish?
Keith Law: She reads these chats so I’d better be careful … I would say I really appreciate Phish because they’re such skilled musicians. At the two concerts we attended in 2019, I could just stand there and watch Trey’s fretwork for an entire solo and get lost in it. I wish I could move around the fretboard that easily but I could at least pick out patterns and try to infer where his mind was going. Football is just a fun thing to get angry about and an excuse to chill on the couch, but it’s nowhere near as serious a matter as rugby.

Ben: Akil Baddoo is getting a lot of buzz this spring from Tigers twitter. What should Tigers fans realistically expect for Baddoo? Would you cut Jacoby Jones to keep Baddoo on the squad?
Keith Law: I like Baddoo quite a bit, and hope he’s healthy now and can stick. Never bought JaCoby’s bat, and he’s about to turn 29 with no real track record of consistent production. I think the highest I ever rated him was out of high school, when he was all tools and athleticism, but he didn’t progress at LSU or in multiple stops so far in pro ball.

Mason: What would you do with Varsho this year? Think he’ll get the consistent playing time to get going this year?
Keith Law: Move him around the field but make sure he’s playing close to every day.

Joe Maddon: What do you think of the Angels Chris Rodriquez? Will he make the opening day roster? Do you see him long term as a starter or a reliever?
Keith Law: Absolutely should not make the OD roster. He’s barely pitched in three years and needs to be managed carefully this year, not according to the whims and needs of the major-league club.

ssimo02: Enjoyed your interview with Triston McKenzie. I respect that you won’t use Cleveland’s team’s nickname in your articles. Why did you use it to tag the team in your Tweet promoting the interview?
Keith Law: That’s their twitter handle. I can’t change that.

J. Alfaro: Who are the Top 3 catchers in the MLB draft in your mind, and need I concern myself with them?
Keith Law: Del Castillo, Davis, and Ford. We’ll see if Mack joins them when his season starts. The first three are all going in the first round.

Nate: As a Utah resident it’s cool to see Seth Corry getting some love. When’s the last time a legit prospect came out of Utah in any capacity? Do we have to go all the way back to CJ Cron?
Keith Law: Yep, it’s Cron, and he’s an Arizona kid who went to the University of Utah. There have only been two players drafted and signed out of Utah high schools to reach 10 career WAR: Bruce Hurst and Glenn Hubbard, 1976 and 1975 drafts respectively. Next is John Buck at 5.8 WAR.

Andrew: Thinking about Carlos Correa – are you aware of any evidence that guys who are injured frequently at a young age are more likely to continue to miss a lot of games throughout their careers? Correa has missed about 1/3 of his regular season games since 2017 while in his early 20s. I’d love for the Astros to extend him, but how do you bake this into a valuation of him? Basically, is “injury prone” a real thing?
Keith Law: So, my understanding is that, yes, this is true, the best predictor of whether a guy will get injured is whether he has gotten injured. I can not, however, point you to a study of any sort to demonstrate this.

Guest: Hi Keith. I also have anxiety and started taking metamucil when I read that you take it for digestive issues. How many pills do you take per day?
Keith Law: I take five, the recommended dose, every day before lunch.

Pat D: I don’t know why, but I don’t think I’m as excited as I should be for this upcoming season.  I’m not sure if it’s because I think the Yankees half-assed it in the offseason or because of my own health/work/personal issues or because things still don’t feel “normal.”  Anyone else feel this way?
Keith Law: I feel some of this, certainly … it doesn’t feel quite real to me, and my enthusiasm for going to see actual games is tempered by news like teams opening their gates way too soon or to too many fans. Maybe that will dissipate as soon as I get myself to a game.

Jason: Are your ESPN-era chats gone forever?
Keith Law: I don’t think they are all gone but the first few years were wiped out in the site redesign.

Dan: Cruzan has some great darker rums for blending including a 137 proof to make coquito.
Keith Law: I don’t love their rums, even the 15-year or the blackstrap. A little too medicinal for me.

JT: Evan White was a rookie and it was a weird year, but 40% K rate does not portend great things. Are you still optimistic about the bat?
Keith Law: Him becoming so pull-happy and unable to hit a MLB fastball is a huge concern.

Sal: Have you seen/heard anything about Dom Smith indicating he’ll maintain the numbers from the second half of 19 and 2020? He appears to be one of those guys to root for as a human and player.
Keith Law: That’s the hitter I always thought he’d become, so I wasn’t surprised to see it. I hope they continue to commit to finding him as much playing time as possible.

JR: Why do the Mets feel the need to explore an extension with Lindor? SS free agent class is loaded next year. Yes, he’s a great player, but seems a bit premature. Also, do you find it unique that they are publicly discussing that they are exploring extension talks with Lindor and Conforto? Seems like most of these extensions get announced as a surprise (like Tatis, Jr).
Keith Law: They’re clearly trying to signal to fans that it’s not Wilpon business as usual any more.

Paul: If we get to a point where every dr, nurse, every waiter, bartender, is vaccinated and hospitalizations are low – doesn’t it make sense to open things up?
Keith Law: Gradually, sure. Completely, as Texas and Maryland have done? No. A restaurant full of maskless (or frequently masks-off) people, mostly unvaccinated, is still a bad idea.
Keith Law: To be more specific: It is not supported by the science. Restaurants don’t have the distancing or ventilation required for maskless dining.

Appa Yip Yip: What players are your highest priority evaluations for this year? Guys who intrigue but haven’t been seen much or played in a bit?
Keith Law: That was my column yesterday. Gave 32 names, I think, despite the headline (which I didn’t write).

Bernie Brewer: Arcia vs. Luis Urias is a real post-hype prospect battle. Are either still potential assets for MLW?
Keith Law: I won’t give up on either guy … yet.

Andre: Keith – What have you heard about Robert Puason? It seems as though he went from being hailed as a top prospect ($5 million bonus) to almost an afterthought before playing a game in the US.
Keith Law: I don’t think he was really that top of a prospect, but he did get a huge bonus. Ton of concerns about his bat and body before and after he signed.

Frank: How does Henry Davis compare to some of the other recent catchers who were picked in the first round in the last few years?  He went to our local HS and was very excited to see your write up on him and that he is that well regarded.  Thanks.
Keith Law: Whichever team gets most comfortable with his unorthodox swing will pull the trigger somewhere in the teens, I think. Power for sure, high contact rates now, and can definitely catch. If everyone loved the swing and thought he’d continue to put the ball in play he’d be a top 10 guy.

JR: As weird as it sounds, I honestly think corporate America is our best bet to increase vaccine rates, especially the airlines, cruise ships, amusement parks, stadiums, etc. Places that accommodate large crowds. If they all institute a “you can’t visit our place/use our services without a vaccine or a recent (less than 24 hours) negative test” it will force anti vaxxers to either comply or prove negative test before being amongst a big group of people.
Keith Law: Yep. It’s bizarre, and inefficient, but some corporations are doing more on massive issues like climate change or LGBTQ+ rights than our own government.

Dixie: Have you ever read “The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier and Clay?” Thoughts?
Keith Law: I have – here’s my review from 2009. Chabon’s a brilliant writer who needs an editor to reign him in.

Tom: Have had debates about madrigal’s potential offensive output. No way he even slugs .420 (nice) or so right??
Keith Law: No evidence that is or ever will be within his skill set.

Max: What percent of this Mickey Moniak resurgence are you buying — 25%?
Keith Law: Zero for now. He’s got 10 AB in early spring training.

Tom: At what point will you vote for the person who will more likely unite america as opposed to the candidate we agree with more?
Keith Law: Show me a candidate who can “unite” America – after 12 years of GOP obstructionism, in particular – and we can talk.

Pat D: I think I know the answer, but will conservatives remember that they started “cancel culture?”  Bill Maher after 9/11, The Dixie Chicks, but even much longer ago The Beatles after the “more popular than Jesus” statement.  Also, can us sane people please agree that “cancel culture” is a bullshit, inaccurate term anyway?
Keith Law: It’s a term that segment of the media loves almost as much as they love talking about trans athletes.

Adam: I know you do not choose what to advertise on your podcast, but have you ever had to refuse to promote somewhat who wanted to buy ad time?  If a “anti-vax” org wanted to buy a spot, for example, could you go to the people at the Athletic (or before that, ESPN) and say that there was no way you would read the provided copy?
Keith Law: Yes. I have declined some ads and asked for changes in other ad copy (e.g., a product that wanted me to call it delicious, when I tried it and did not find it delicious).

JG: Is Whitley now destined to join Appel and Aiken as Astros 1st round pitching prospects to never pitch in the Big Leagues?
Keith Law: It’s Tommy John surgery … he’ll be back. Maybe he’ll never be what we thought, but he’ll be back.

addoeh: Any interesting/amusing stories from how you and your wife met or from your first few dates?
Keith Law: I’d have to check with her before sharing too much, but I think this is fair game: neither of us was all that sure that the other was interested after the first date. I traveled after that and we were texting furiously the whole time, after which point it became clear we could have something special – which we do.
Keith Law: I need to wrap this up – I’m sorry, there are still some great questions in the queue. Thank you all for reading. Next week’s chat might be at a different time or even postponed depending on work travel and other things. In the meantime, my breakouts column should run Wednesday, and I have a new review up at Paste of the quick 3-D board game Holi. Thanks again – stay safe and get that vaccine!

My ranking of the top 30 prospects for this year’s MLB Draft is now up for The Athletic subscribers.

Keith Law: Gold’s just around the corner. Klawchat.

Bradley: What do you think Sal Frelick’s potential MLB comp is?
Keith Law: I don’t like player comps, for various reasons. As he is now, he’s a leadoff type, high average/OBP, speed, defense in CF. Aaron Fitt and I discussed him on the podcast this week and he really thinks there will be more power in there. I could see that with some swing help.

JD: You said on the podcast that this seemed like a weak draft class. Same with 2022? Any particular standouts there already – Green, Johnson, someone else?
Keith Law: I don’t think I said that – it’s not a weak class, it’s kind of a good one. Strong in college RHP, high school shortstops, more catching than usual. Light on college bats – there may not be a college bat in the top ten – and left-handed pitching.

Tom G: Is there a comp for Lewis that you know of? 2 years off of baseball at such a young age?
Keith Law: Which Lewis?

Flavia: Do you have any concerns about the shape of Leiter’s curveball translating to MLB?
Keith Law: No. That’s … weird. I don’t think I’ve ever heard that complaint about a player.

Jared: Do Antonetti and Francona need to go?  Still some fact-finding to do, I suppose, but it reeeally looks like they knew and covered it up.
Keith Law: If executives know a potential employee has a history of the kind of behavior Callaway exhibited, and hire him anyway, yes, they should be let go.

Jason: Thoughts on the JBJ signing? I guess you can never have too many OF. Are we a pitching and D team, hoping to win 1-0?
Keith Law: What if you made the whole team out of centerfielders?
Keith Law: I actually love the deal. But i wonder if there’s a trade coming too – do they really need him, Cain, and Garcia?

David P: Who is the better pitcher? Grayson Rodriguez or Edward Cabrera. I’m torn but lean towards Grayson.
Keith Law: I ranked them both on my top 100, so the one I put higher is going to be my pick.

whyaremen: If I get the vaccine is there any reason for me to not attend games, from a public health perspective?
Keith Law: No, but wear a mask so you don’t spread the virus unknowingly.

David P: Any sense on who the Red Sox prefer at 4? Would they really draft a bat over one of the 3 pitchers?
Keith Law: WAY too early. Anyone trying to claim they know who’s drafting whom, or even who teams are targeting, is misleading you. I was with the Jays for five springs, and we never had anything narrowed down this early. This year it’s even less likely teams will do so.

Noah D: Hey Klaw, who do you see winning the Cleveland SS job between Gimenez and Rosario? Both were highly touted at one time
Keith Law: No inside info here, but I’d guess Gimenez is the regular SS and Rosario ends up playing multiple positions.

@RichCampbellPhD: I’ve had some fun watching ASU streaming games while waiting for April 1. How will the scouting of college players go for this year’s draft? Are word-of-mouth/network effects going to be even more pronounced than usual?
Keith Law: Teams are able to send scouts to most colleges right now. I only know of a handful of prospects who can’t be scouted in person right now, like Mason Black (who was scouted at Coppin State last week, but whose school, Lehigh, isn’t allowing anyone into games yet).

Barry: Will you be doing an Eagles draft preview this year? Seriously though, it would be fun if you joined The Athletics’s Eagles podcast as a guest at some point.
Keith Law: I don’t know how to define my Eagles fandom if I can’t complain about how Carson Wentz must be color blind since he never seemed to distinguish between his own receivers and the other team’s secondary.

Rocky: Do you think Gabriel Moreno has the chance to crack the top 100 prospects this year?
Keith Law: If you read all the way to the end of my Blue Jays org report, I answer that question directly.

Guest: RE SF Giants. Is this a draft class that allows the Giants to load up on arm talent? It seems the Giants farm system, while getting stronger generally, is lacking high ceiling arm talent.  Thoughts?
Keith Law: They’re definitely lighter on arms than bats. They could probably grab 2-3 quality arms in their first three picks, although I’d always advise best player available.

Adam: The Padres 5th OF job appears to be Brian O’Grady’s to lose going into Spring Training. More importantly, he is likely the primary back up to Trent Grisham in CF. If Grisham were to get banged up a bit, how much faith (both defensively and offensively) would you have in him starting for an extended amount of time?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t let him play there on more than an emergency basis.

Adam: Now that Fernando Tatís Jr is locked up for the next 14 years, would you project CJ Abrams as a CF or as a 2B long term? Which of the two positions is deemed more valuable?
Keith Law: He’s a shortstop.

Mason: Do you follow what’s going on in Independent ball much? Noticed some former 1st round picks will be coming to a city near me in Nick Travieso and Ty Hensley. Any chance they can break back through to affiliated ball?
Keith Law: Hensley’s main issue was health – and it wasn’t his fault. All depends on how hard they’re throwing, and in Travieso’s case I’d ask where his arm slot is these days.

Joe J: What is Franco’s ceiling? Can he be better than Tatis?
Keith Law: He’s not as dynamic as Tatis, or as fast, but he’s a better pure hitter.

Ben: Keith, why do you hate my draft prospect?
Keith Law: I hate all draft prospects equally.

Adam: Agree or disagree: Preller teaching himself Spanish and Japanese, never having an arbitration hearing during his tenure with the Padres, and not playing service time games with top prospects shows that he understands how valuable a track record of good faith is when you negotiate extensions. This is on top of building one of the best scouting and player development programs in the league. The man is simply a great executive.
Keith Law: That you, AJ?

Geordy: What has caused Luke Leto’s star to fall so far?
Keith Law: I don’t know how a high school player’s star could have “fallen.” When was he … whatever you think he was?
Keith Law: It’s not like we’re talking about a drafted kid who flopped in pro ball or something.

TomBruno23: I cannot bring myself to give a ____ about rules in spring training games. Am I ok?
Keith Law: They’re just practice for profit. I don’t get too worked up about it as long as no one does anything stupid.

Aaron C.: Have you ever written at length about pitcher usage in college (or high school)? Forgive my ignorance, but a hasty Google didn’t bring up anything.
Keith Law: Probably lost to the ESPN site re-design a few years ago.

Jon G: I’ve seen a couple of early mocks with catchers going to the Cubs. I’m not taking mocks very seriously at this point, but the team has given out a lot of its bigger bonuses in the draft and J2 market to catchers. Given the eventual shift to robo umps, how smart of a strategy would cornering the market on young, bat-first catchers be? Does a rule change mitigate the risk of targeting that demographic to any degree?
Keith Law: Don’t pay any attention to “early mocks.” They’re just guesses; no team has any idea who they’re taking now.
Keith Law: The risk of catchers isn’t related to framing. It’s related to the huge wear and tear of the position, as well as the difficulty of learning to hit while also learning to be a catcher.

Chris: How many negative reports on a prospect’s off-the-field traits does it take for you to be comfortable mentioning said traits about that given player? I imagine that would be a difficult situation to handle, you don’t want to besmirch a player’s reputations because some former coach or teammate didn’t like them for some reason. Guessing if you hear “man, player A is difficult to work with/is a nightmare off the field” enough times you’d be okay mentioning it in a story, just curious where that line is. (Apologies if my wording is clumsy)
Keith Law: I have to hear it from multiple, clearly disconnected sources.

John: Now with Triple-A being delayed, do the Mariners start Kelenic on opening day?
Keith Law: I would. The Mariners might. Kevin Mather wouldn’t have.

Tom G: Sorry Royce Lewis
Keith Law: That helps. Josh Hamilton did, and both were #1 overall picks (although quite dissimilar as players, and as people). Sucks for Lewis, though, because he had real swing issues he had to fix, and now he can’t really work on them for a least 6-7 months.

Guest: Hi Keith! What are floor and ceiling of the Braves Contreras? Who is the long term catcher for Atlanta, him or Langeliers?
Keith Law: Either. One ends up traded. Both are everyday catchers.

Thomas: Hi Keith; Thanks as always for these. You’ve been pretty vocal (which I agree with) about Cavan Biggio not really being an everyday player. However, given the front office has talked him up as being a core player for a couple of years now, do you actually envision them doing a 180 at some point, or do you think front offices feel like they’ve painted themselves into a corner when they make comments like these? (side note, it sounds like Montoyo is going to bat Springer leadoff. I was legit worried he would keep Biggio up there).
Keith Law: The signing of Semien told us far more than their words ever did.

Matt: Keith – I really love that you appreciate progressive metal.  I’m a huge Mastodon fan and have recently been getting into Gojira.  What other bands would you recommended in that genre?
Keith Law: Alcest, Pallbearer (doom), Toundra come to mind.

HH: Have you noticed any changes in the college ranks to how college coaches are (ab)using their top prospect starters? Are coaches doing it less? Are prospects & their parents avoiding coaches with such reputations?
Keith Law: Not that I’ve noticed.

Jeff: Which do you think is more anti-player, the draft or the international signing cap?  As I get older, I am really starting to understand how unfair a draft is to labor.  But is the international process any better?
Keith Law: They’re both anti-player and pro-owner.
Keith Law: Both shift money from players to ownership. Full stop.

Oscar: Klaw, what are the chances we see some fans in the CWS in Omaha? Also what’s the chance we see you come out for a few games?
Keith Law: Nebraska never even bothered with a mask mandate, right? And didn’t give two shits about workers in their meatpacking factories? They’ll probably allow 100% capacity by June.
Keith Law: I don’t go to the College World Series. In the past it was after the draft, so it was useless, but even now it’s not a good scouting environment.

Todd: Any thoughts on todays inauguration?
Keith Law: Just how many Great Disappointments can these people undergo before realizing they’ve all been duped?

TomBruno23: Thinking about whyaremen’s question as well…I am lucky enough to be getting my 2nd dose next Thursday, my favorite ballclub announced they are selling 15k per game…yet I am kind of like, “Nah, TV is fine.”
Keith Law: I can certainly understand refusing to support a team that is acting against the community interest, but once I’m vaccinated I will go to games, wearing a mask (or two), with little concern about catching the virus.

ATR: What do you think Willi Castro’s ceiling is?
Keith Law: Could be an everyday player.

Rob: Do you put any stock into raving spring training reviews of a young prospect’s work ethic and attitude?
Keith Law: No. I would put stock into a major league manager saying, “Joey Bagodonuts? He’s the laziest kid I’ve ever had. Rolls in at 5:30 for the five o’clock meeting, beer in one hand and cigarette in the other.”

Nelson: Didn’t see Huascar Ynoa on your Braves prospect report (maybe he’s ineligible, i am not clear), but do you think he can be useful at the MLB level? Think you were pretty high on him in your 2020 system report.
Keith Law: Ineligible. He was a prospect, will probably be a solid reliever for them this year.

Don: How does Ian Moller compare to other recent HS catchers?
Keith Law: Bat is well behind.

Pat: Assume Leiter is 1-1, Rocker is 1-2, who should Detroit take at 1-3? One of the HS SS, right? Lawler?
Keith Law: They should probably wait until July to decide, but Lawlar and Hill are the best choices right now.

Mike: Do you think Danny Jansen still has a shot to be an average regular?  I’m excited about Kirk, but if he’s starting, that’s sort of it for Jansen, no?
Keith Law: I’m leaning towards no on Jansen. No history of durability, for one major reason.

Guest: Who are the best local players?  Lonnie White?
Keith Law: Quite a few – Benny Montgomery, Solometo, Petty are all pretty close to me.
Keith Law: Black, if Lehigh opens its doors.

Jeff: Political prediction: do the Democrats “amend” the filibuster rules in some way to pass much needed legislation to combat the voter suppression going on in red states?
Keith Law: I sure as hell hope so, because you know the Republicans would have zero hesitation in doing so if it suited them.

Thomas: I’m a bit surprised to see Hajjar being mocked in the first round some places despite having close to twenty total college innings. Was he considered a legit draft prospect out of high school?
Keith Law: He’s not a first-rounder right now. That’s absurd. He could be one by July – I’m not going even hazard an opinion on that – but people saying he’s going in the first round are just making shit up.
Keith Law: Everyone’s a draft expert now.

Jake: Comparing the offspeed pitches from Leiter and Rocker – more that the Leiter’s curve is just that good or that Rocker’s slider may not have the same success in professional baseball?
Keith Law: Rocker’s slider is great against college bats, but multiple scouts told me they don’t think it’s going to be the same sort of weapon in pro ball.

Rob: At this point in his career, do you see Michael Chavis as having the ability to be an average every day player or is he a bench bat at best?
Keith Law: Bench guy more likely.

Drew: Do you believe that the Republican part is truly fracturing? I certainly hope so and the divisions do seem to be real and somewhat insurmountable for a rational human. But every time over the last 4-5 that I’ve gotten that feeling of “ah, this is where it end” I end up feeling foolish for believing it.
Keith Law: Oh I don’t think so. I think they’re quite happy with their newfound cohesion.

TomBruno23: I believe you were a Yankees fan growing up. Was Mattingly your favorite player? Any under the radar deep cut favorite players?
Keith Law: Willie Randolph was my favorite.

Patrick: Could Chris Rodriguez sneak into the Angels bullpen by the end of the season? He looked filthy in his spring debut
Keith Law: He has never pitched above A-ball and has 9 innings in the last three years.
Keith Law: Sure, teams do stupid stuff all the time, but you’d have to lay 1000-to-1 odds against a kid with his history getting time in the majors this year.

ProjectHanyo: I know this is gonna be a guy not on your list and more of a maybe top 5 round guy, but what have you heard about Ryan Bliss of Auburn? Thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Exactly – rounds 3-5 sort of guy, scouts may love him, can’t play short and doesn’t have real power.

Dougie Fresh: Andrew Stevenson a league average regular?
Keith Law: Platoon guy.

Important spring update: Taylor Rogers just yelled “It’s a spring training game, come on man” to home plate umpire Manny Gonzalez after getting squeezed like five times in six pitches.
Keith Law: Good for Rogers.

Ben: So…  Dylan Crews is pretty good, huh?
Keith Law: We should probably hold off until LSU plays someone decent. They beat the hell out of Nicholls, Youngstown St, and Southern the last five games.

Mike: It seems like a lot of A’s fans are perpetually excited about Lazarito being a future star, but seems like a bit of a long shot to me. What do you think?
Keith Law: Zero shot.

Drew: The Twins having their AAA affiliate 10 miles away in St. Paul is pretty cool as a Twin Cities resident but it actually feels like it would offer some real opportunity for the Twins brass. Do you think they push more players that might have otherwise been in AA up to AAA? Or is this as dumb as I’m starting feel like it is as I close in on the end of my question?
Keith Law: Could be a good business decision but not a good baseball one.

Matt: You were high on Max Pentcost right?   What happened to him?
Keith Law: Was I? I feel like I was a little lighter on his bat, but the truth is he just got hurt, a lot, and we’ll never know if he was any good.

Tom: Hey Keith, have you had a chance to spend any time at the Delaware beaches?  Any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law: Really loved the Station in Lewes. Haven’t spent much time down there overall though.

Harry: Apologies if you have addressed this already, but what led you to leave Jud Fabian off of the top 30?
Keith Law: He can’t hit a breaking ball. Guys his age with that issue don’t go in the first round much, if at all, any more. Kam Misner is a good comparison – an SEC player who got off to a huge start, fell off when conference play began, and went in the comp round. Anfernee Grier was similar too.

Drew: Lewis Thorpe is in the best shape of his life by all accounts. If he’s back at 92-93 does that make him an appealing option for the Twins when Matt Shoemaker gets hurt?
Keith Law: Sounds like he’s in a better place mentally too. I think he’s at least a back-end starter if his velocity is back to where it was years ago, pre-TJ.

Aaron C.: I know baseball is BACK when my A’s-leaning newsfeed is filled with “Buddy Reed’s Done It Again” headlines. Jesus, people.
Keith Law: I know we’re a little more accustomed to fringe guys – Max Muncy comes to mind – changing overnight and becoming stars, but yeah, I’ll believe in Buddy Reed’s bat when he does this in regular season games. He’s a great athlete, 7 run, 7 glove, with some power, but his swing has always been a problem.

Justin: Do you think MLB has a full season lockout next year ?
Keith Law: I hope not but I think it’s a real possibility.

Guest: What’s the next project for you at the Athletic with the prospects overview complete?
Keith Law: Draft stuff, a couple of new feature ideas, and some labor commentary.

Claudio: What do you see in Braden Shewmake? Is he an everyday MLB shortstop and potential replacement for Dansby, utility guy, AAAA?
Keith Law: He was on my top 100.

Dan: Does Ronny Mauricio stick at SS?
Keith Law: Yes, no doubt.

Chris: Do you have a type of prospect that you find harder to scout than the others? Or is there a type of prospect that is more likely to “fool” scouts because they’re difficult to project?
Keith Law: Catchers are very hard to evaluate as amateurs. The hit tool is the hardest tool for hitters, command for pitchers.

TomBruno23: How long are we going today? I have a meeting in an hour and want to get a walk in while it is 65 outside. Asking for myself.
Keith Law: Till about 3:15 ET. Had to start late because I was recording something for my next podcast.

Dan: Any thoughts on NBA Top Shot and how MLB could get into the virtual collectable space?
Keith Law: I think that space is ridiculous. You don’t own a digital “collectible.”

Guest: In 2021, is there a phrase that is supposed to imply intelligence but in fact signals the exact opposite more than “I did my own research?”
Keith Law: Nope. That just means they have access to the internet, and no capacity to distinguish real from bogus information.

Robbie: Hi Keith.  Any sense as to MLB/Manfred’s reaction/response to the Callaway, Porter, Ellis situations.  MLB seem to have been mostly silent to date.  Would think MLB has a role to play in expunging this behaviour from the sport through fines, penalties, suspensions etc. to players/clubs.  Are you hearing that anything is in the works/being contemplated at the MLB level?
Keith Law: I know for a fact there are multiple MLB investigations ongoing.

JR: I guess I shouldn’t be surprised, but I am a little that the Suess estate’s personal decision to stop selling certain books has turned into “Biden and the Dems have cancelled Dr. Suess” lol. They made the decision on their own (and a very cynical person may even wonder if they did it in part to drive up book sales)
Keith Law: I’m more amazed at how many people on the left seem to see this as actual concern over “cancel culture” rather than obvious pandering to the base. It’s the same as the bills requiring trans athletes compete in the sexes they were assigned at birth. It’s not a real problem. Nobody actually cares about this issue. But it buys headlines, and appeals to the Neanderthal base.

addoeh: Split loyalties seemingly for you next weekend for Six Nations.  Will you cheer for Italy or Wales?
Keith Law: Italy has no chance in the 6N, so it’ll be easy to root for Wales.

Dan: Do you like backgammon?
Keith Law: Never got into it.

Don: Is Jake Burger a guy again after losing 40lbs?
Keith Law: I’m optimistic that he’s going to turn back into a prospect this year.

Anon: On a scale of 1-10, just how threatened is our democracy? The proliferation of social media disinformation, stupid people generally, and naked attempts at voter suppression have me afraid. Am I overreacting?
Keith Law: At least a 7. The media – and not just right-wing media, but most mainstream media – are complicit. Why are people who encouraged the Big Lie appearing on my television? Who the fuck is booking these people?

TomBruno23: Any thoughts on DC as a 51st state?
Keith Law: It is absurd that they’re not one. The same for Puerto Rico. Why should those American citizens lack representation in Congress? Because they’re mostly people of color?

Chris: Tatis, Soto, and Acuna – Between their actual baseball ability and the way they play the game, have we had a more enjoyable trio of young stars in recent memory? And that’s before you add in more established guys like Trout, Betts, Baez, and so many others!
Keith Law: MLB should be marketing the hell out of those guys already.
Keith Law: I’m sure we’ve had comparable trios, but those are the guys we have right now. They should be household names.

Frank: What are a few great baseball documentaries you’ve watched?
Keith Law: Pelotero.

Trevor: KLaw – Appreciate the draft prospect write-ups. Happy to see Bachman high on your list as a former Miami (OH) grad myself. No question just in agreement that the teaching of critical thinking to kids would vastly improve the educational system
Keith Law: It should be a major part of any state or local education reform.

Matt: I know this is a subjective question and open to interpretation, but if you had to pick the team that has the least amount of hope of being a consistent winner in the next decade, which would you pick?
Keith Law: I feel like Colorado is in the worst shape, because they don’t seem to have a clear direction for the major-league roster, the farm system is below the median, and that is the hardest MLB environment in which to build a team. They have to be 10% better than everyone else.

Guest: Seuly Matias has a ____ chance of being Joey Gallo
Keith Law: Zero.

Jason: How long until the other teams catch up to San Diego’s discovery of the market inefficiency in spending money to win?
Keith Law: Sssh. It’s still a secret.

Thomas: I might be one of those rare few people that actually read your prospect stuff entirely to apply to my fantasy league. I’ve won a handful of times so thank you for all your help. Well worth the subscription. Whose bat would you prefer long term, Jazz Chisholm or Brandon Lowe?
Keith Law: Chisholm has way more risk but way more upside. Your choice.

Alex A.: In Atlanta, 3rd appears to be the only position of any significant concern in the near term (assuming one of the two catching prospects hits).  Do you see a scenario in which Riley becomes a serviceable regular, or is the future Shewmake/outside acquisition?
Keith Law: Shewmake could end up there, or stay at SS, but I’ve never really bought Riley’s bat and we now have a year-plus of data showing he’s not able to hit enough to be a regular. His bat speed has always been an issue.

That guy: with regular season baseball still about a month away and this cold weather I’m looking for something new to play. Whats your favorite 2 player board game?
Keith Law: Favorite of all time is Jaipur. Would also recommend 7 Wonders Duel and Patchwork.

Greg: What player on a 10+ year contract would you bet is the first to leave their team? Most likely to finish their contractt?
Keith Law: I am all in on the Padres’ plan, but if I’m being realistic, the odds of both of their 10+ year guys staying in San Diego for the durations of their contracts are probably low.

Jase: What’s the best way to address competitive and/or financial imbalance in the game? Booting certain owners? How would they legislate that? Cap and floor? Or just shrug and accept it?
Keith Law: Tie revenue-sharing payments to some form of competitiveness. If you lose 110 games, you don’t get any cash.

Rob: Kyle Wright or Bryse Wilson? Who do you think has a better year
Keith Law: Leaning Wilson but not that confident in the pick.

Don: Is Andrew Vaughn’s lack of power so far in pro ball a concern?
Keith Law: He played for three months. After a full college spring.

Fernando G: Hey Keith, Hope you’re doing well. Do you have any insight into the front office culture across MLB right now? I am interested in getting started in the industry, but worry if the culture is more ‘traditional’ (i.e. tattoos and piercings are frowned upon). Sorry if that’s a bit of a loaded question, but it’s something I have been curious about and didn’t know where to look for any useful info on it. A traditional culture wouldn’t be a complete turnoff for me, but it would certainly be a negative that I would like to be able to take into account beforehand. Thanks!
Keith Law: If tattoos were frowned upon you’d never see a former pro player in any front office job.

Pat: Many of the local media around Detroit are saying Tigers need to take a college player at 1-3, so the timeline matches up closer with the “Big 5” prospects that are all supposed to hit within the next yr-18 mos..that has to be some of the worst reasoning ever, right? Pass up a potential star SS like Lawler because he may not debut until 2024-25?
Keith Law: Local media are probably not in a good position to make that call. Not that that ever stopped anyone. You take the best player available, period.

Jon G: Have draft evaluators (scouts, higher ups, public analysts) begun to incorporate seam-shifted wake into their lexicon as it relates to draft prospects? Would that make any meaningful difference from simply describing “late movement”? Has the concept as demonstrated changed the way you value certain pitch types?
Keith Law: Scouts don’t evaluate that … I mean, how could they? You can’t see it with your eyes. That’s why we have the technology. But scouts can see how hitters react, or how a pitch breaks in an unexpected way. SSW is just the hot new term – not saying there’s anything wrong or untrue about it, but it’s been in a few articles this week and now it’s the new toy. (EDIT: Just to be clear, I’m not diminishing SSW, or anyone writing about it, at all, but to argue against a sort of recency bias in ideas – the last new thing you heard isn’t necessarily the best thing, or even true. To answer the remainder of Jon G.’s question, I think SSW is different from late movement, or even movement; it describes a cause and an effect, with the effect a specific type of movement and the associated deception.)

Guest: I badly wanted the Yankees to draft Jack Leiter in 2018 (no offense to Volpe). How has he developed in the last 2 years?) Higher velocity, better command and sharper breaking stuff?
Keith Law: All of that. Filled out some too.

Tom: Is there any chance of Jon Gray becoming anything more if he were to move outta coors field?
Keith Law: I think so. Would love to see it.

Mike M: Any plans to make it to Bridgewater to see the new Yankees AA affiliate?
Keith Law: Of course, once it’s safe to do so.

Drew: Boy, the longer Cuomo stays in office despite his incompetence on COVID and multiple harassment allegations, the more he looks like a Democratic mini-Trump, huh? I feel like we should really not emulate the “shamelessness as a political superpower” on the left.
Keith Law: Agreed. I’m glad at least some Democrats have called for his resignation.

JD: What should be looking for in Andy Pages’ game this year?
Keith Law: Contact.

JD: Your writeup of Matt Allan was pretty much all positive, but I gather he’s missing something he needs to be a true ace. What’s that?
Keith Law: I said in the writeup that his fastball plays below its velocity. That’s his main drawback. He’s going to have to work more with his offspeed stuff than most starters.

Steve: You think Mondesi can be a star?
Keith Law: Career .284 OBP, .292 in the last two seasons if you want to give him a pass on the early call-ups. He has never developed an adequate approach at the plate, and I doubt he ever will. He can still be valuable because he does so many other things, but hitters with neither patience nor power have limited ceilings.

Green New Deal: I have a hard time seeing how we’re going to convert to renewables at the scale needed without more investment in nuclear energy.  The main arguments are expense and waste, but from the cost perspective, it’s a drop in the bucket compared to potential GDP loss from more natural disasters and overall instability.
Keith Law: Agreed. Unfortunately, the green energy crowd tends to be anti-nuclear because availability bias leads them to believe that it is more dangerous than it actually is.

Frank: Any reason why you do not typically include recent j -2 signings such as diaz and martinez in teams’ top 20 reports/other notables ?
Keith Law: Because they’re 16.

Adam: Would you give Pache more time at the Alt Site/AAA and trot Ender out there or start him in the Majors then re evaluate come may?
Keith Law: I’d play him now and get the benefit of his defense, but I won’t argue if they want him to go to AAA to work on pitch recognition.
Keith Law: Once AAA starts, that is.

John: Why bother keeping the filibuster anymore?  If protecting voting rights isn’t important enough to remove that nothing will ever be and unfortunately only one side sees that as a problem.
Keith Law: My question is why the filibuster ever existed. It seems antithetical to our system of government.

Nolan: I know it’s crazy, but I find myself hopeful about Anderson Espinoza. Seems like starter is out of the question, but could he be an impactful bullpen piece?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s that crazy and I would like to see if he can start. Few guys do after two TJs, but there have been exceptions.

Mac: Was surprised Alex Binelas made the top 30. He’s looked horrible at the plate and they’re starting to play him at 1B more often because he’s been just as bad at 3B.
Keith Law: I said in the piece that he’s gotten off to a bad start, but the rankings aren’t just based on this year. He may very well end up in the second round or later, though.

Jason: Re: Puerto Rico, it’s unclear whether they actually want statehood.  In 2012, a bare majority wanted to even change its current status (and then was split between free association, statehood, and independence), and in 2020 statehood barely received a majority over independence (“no” meant a commission to determine the next steps toward independence)
Keith Law: That’s not really true; a majority of PR residents want statehood, with three nonbinding votes in the last 15 years showing that, but opponents have done a good job of casting doubt on that. Just another episode in our country’s long and shameful history of disenfranchising nonwhite voters.

Steve: How far along are you playing My City? We’re  4 episodes in, so Chapter 2, and enjoying it so far.
Keith Law: We hit the gold mines, which I think is about halfway? It’s fun. A nice light game we can play 2-3 times in a sitting. Put it aside for a while as my wife was extremely busy with work and I was plowing through prospect rankings.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat. Thank you all so much for reading and for all of your questions. I’ll try to keep these chats going weekly now that we have a season, depending on my travel commitments once those get starter. Stay safe, and go get vaccinated as soon as you can!

Keith Law: I know there’s got to be a break in the monotony. Klawchat.

Nate: With the lost year of development for many minor league players has there been any talk of pushing Rule 5 eligibility back a year?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard that. It would have to be collectively bargained, and it would be a disaster for minor leaguers. Let’s hope the union stands up for them, even though they’re non-members.

Max G: Hey Keith, thanks for taking the time to do this. You had mentioned (I believe in your last chat) that a factor in you ranked big-name-heavy systems, such as the Tigers, Ordeals, and WSox, where you did was because of their historically poor international programs. What does improving these club’s international scouting look like, and is there any hope for these orgs?
Keith Law: I like the autocorrect of the Orioles as “Ordeals.” I’m sure fans who’ve lived through the last few years would concur. It’s not just one solution for all teams – in Baltimore’s case, it was the previous regime’s choice to eschew that market completely, while in Detroit and Chicago, they tended to avoid the higher-bonus guys, and did not get great results when they did go for the seven-figure players.

xxx(yyy): thoughts on NBA Top Shot? chances we see an MLB version of that same kind of concept?
Keith Law: Had to look this up. I really don’t know anything about this idea. Digital assets aren’t assets. You don’t own the ebooks you think you bought. You’re just leasing them.

Mitchell: What first year players, J2 or 2020 draftees are you most excited to see in person in Sprint Training?
Keith Law: This will be a column in March.

Ben (MN): Have you tried playing any board games with others virtually? If so, any that work well? I’m getting so sick of two player games because my wife beats me all the time.
Keith Law: On gaming sites, yes. Across Zoom, only more social games. I wrote about some for Vulture back in November. https://klaw.me/2HdYUAl

Terry: I patiently waited for your NL Central Top 20 prospects lists to see where Drew Rasmussen was going to land….quickly learning after his name didn’t appear that he lost rookie eligibility (face, meet palm). Thoughts on him?
Keith Law: One-inning reliever. Horrible overuse at Oregon State ended any chance he’d be more.

bROOKS: Matt Thaiss – major leaguer? Bench likely, or every day guy?
Keith Law: Bench ceiling. Not enough bat for every day guy.

Billy: Is Cubs fans dragging of the Ricketts family warranted?
Keith Law: I mean, there are so many reasons…

Stu: Have you heard anything about Verlander’s progress? Best guess: does he pitch in the majors again? He’ll be out of a contract at the end of the season
Keith Law: Oh, he’ll pitch in the majors again. Someone will give him a chance even if he’s throwing 87.
Keith Law: I have no idea how he’s doing.

Duchess: Hey Keith, Pedro Leon seems unique in that he’s a older than many of the international prospects and has some pro experience. Understand that the long layoff introduces a huge variable, but what are the chances he sees a rapid run through the minors and ends up in Houston later in the summer?
Keith Law: He’s really interesting in that he has the tools of a top 50 or even top 25 prospect, is older than the typical J2 signing, but is younger than most of the good Cuban position player prospects who’ve come over (other than Robert, I think). We just have no idea how advanced he is as a hitter because the Serie Nacional has been so bad since the waves of defections began 8-10 years ago.

RobD: Do we really know how valuable it is for prospects to play in real minor league games vs other ways to develop their skills? I often hear about needing more time in game situations – is there really no other way to teach them those things than games? I have been wondering if something like 2-3 games a week plus alternative training ala Driveline might be a more efficient means of development. I know I am colored by my high school baseball days where we’d spend hours on a bus just to play a game where I’d get 4 ABs and a few groundballs hit to me.
Keith Law: I don’t buy that at all. The hardest things to do in baseball involve other players who are trying to do the other hardest things against you – getting hitters out, hitting real pitching.

Andy: How do ratings on the Athletic work, from the writer perspective? If I rate everything as solid, but occasional things as awesome, does that help ratings or is it like Uber, that awesome is the standard and anything below it could be an issue?
Keith Law: No one has ever mentioned those ratings to me.

barbeach: Belated congrats on your nuptials.  Wishing you many decades of happiness.  Bought Azul to play with the family based on your recommendation…has been great fun as we navigate Covid cabin fever.  So thanks.  Question: Is this the year Clint Frazier really breaks out?
Keith Law: If he’s healthy, he’ll play and be fine. I don’t think he’s a star because the same swing and miss issues that were there in high school are, as far as I know, still there.

Todd Boss: Texas frozen windmills == root cause of Texas’ power grid failures.  Right.  At what point does the disingenuity of right wing media become so ridiculous that even the brainwashed masses who watch it call BS?
Keith Law: Never. That will simply never happen. Denialism is too entrenched in American culture, the result of poor public education, income inequality, and our high degree of religiosity compared to other developed nations.

Andy: How long until you feel comfortable going to a game? How long until you feel comfortable taking your family to a game (since there won’t be a vaccine for kids until at least 2022 season?) It’s outdoors, but the yelling and close proximity, makes me hesitant.
Keith Law: I’ll go when I’m vaccinated, or I’ll go if it’s just media and scouts but no fans. I don’t see taking the kids till next year.

JT: Is using Biggio as a stop gap until Austin is ready a perfectly OK solution for the Jays? All of the rumored links to 3B seem to reveal that they get it on Biggio–he’s not a long term starter.
Keith Law: The signing of Semien was the clearest indicator to me that they see what I have always said about Biggio. He shouldn’t be playing every day for a contender.

JT: How hard is it to consider guys like Yadier Alvarez when doing your lists and organizational charts? In a normal year, we would have seen how he reacted to adversity, and it’s possible he could have broken through. Now, it’s almost like we’re forced logically to assume the worst–which tends to happen, ‘natch.
Keith Law: I say this facetiously, but … who?

John Olerud: So… how do the Ms best handle this? Indeed, as a (now more embarrassed and more reluctant than ever) fan of this sorry team, what would you say is the best approach going forward, both on a responsible/ethical and (less importantly) competitive level? To be sure, these are not mutually exclusive outcomes, and any suggestion of such is no doubt complete BS. But I’d be grateful to get your analysis of the situation and your suggestions for any ideal hires. Thanks as always for taking the time.
Keith Law: The M’s need an actual investigation into their internal culture, because, in most cases, if the President feels this way, it’s reflected throughout the organization. Any solution depends on just how widespread these sentiments are.

Todd Boss: If you were the Nats, would you stick Seth Romero as a starter in AAA or have him compete for the lefty reliever MLB bullpen slot?
Keith Law: Can’t see him being a starter with his persistent knuckleheadedness.

JT: I signed up for the Athletic for you and for Eno. Thank you for what you do.
Keith Law: Thank you. Your subscriptions allow me to do what I do.

Jake: What did you hear about Seth Corry in instructs that jumped him into your top 100? Do you think he starts in AA and at least starts the clock for giving the Giants pitching a much needed youth infusion?
Keith Law: The answer to the first question is in the player capsule for Corry. The answer to the second is yes to AA and no to the majors.

Aaron: Agree with your take on the Chicago 7 – it shows the full Sorkin experience, with the good and bad that implies (maybe he created the female FBI agent to have a bad female character).
Keith Law: In fairness, and I don’t feel any real need to be fair to Sorkin, the real story has no women in it. Creating a fictional female character to avoid that is probably a good thing. Creating THAT fictional female character was just stupid.

Phillip P.: Thanks for the chat, Keith! By every measure, Ronald Acuna has been a star. And if he maintains his level of production for a long time, he’ll be a HOFer. But what are the chances he makes the leap from being a 5- to 6-win player to being an 8-plus-WAR guy? What adjustments does he need to make to get there?
Keith Law: He’s still just 23, and B-R had him at 2.3 WAR in 46 games played last year (a rate of 8.1 WAR per 162 games) after a 5.7 WAR in 2019. Your question sort of presumes he’s not already heading towards a 7-8 WAR peak and I don’t agree with that.

JJ: What will you miss most about the Tim Tebow Era?
Keith Law: Oh, no question, the whining from people who claimed I hate Tebow for his religious beliefs, as if he was the only Christian in baseball.

Dan: Thanks as always for the chat Keith! Who in the Twins system do you think has the best chance to have a helium year and jump up the rankings?
Keith Law: Every team report has a Sleeper section at the end that answers this precise question.

Rob: I’m curious now that you’ve gone through the whole prospect exercise (and thanks for all 80,000 words, by the way), did you end up getting more usable and reliable (aka independently sourced) scouting information than expected?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think so. I’m glad this book is closed and we will get games this year, with scouting reports and data, to make the whole exercise better and more enjoyable in 2022.

Joe: Does Antoine Kelly project as a starter or more a 2 pitch reliever?
Keith Law: Starter with high variance.

Guest: With Lindor, Baez, Correa, Seager and Story all free agents at the same time, what do you think those contracts look like?  My assumption is that all of them expect $150 million+ but I have a hard time finding 5 realistic teams that will bid at that level.
Keith Law: Depends on whether there are any more free agents out there as a result of the new CBA – or if the CBA negotations are drawn out and we get some sort of labor stoppage.

Tom: I think we’re probably ok to just throw out Kris Bryants 2020 and say he’s still a .380 OBP 500 SLG guy, right?
Keith Law: I would work off that assumption if I were Hoyer.

JJ: Ten years, $240 million, and three total playoff games — do you think, if given a redo, either the Angels or Albert Pujols would do that contract again?
Keith Law: I’m sure Pujols would. I doubt the Angels would.

Jackie: Do you think Jeter Downs takes over at second base for the Red Sox some time in 2021?  I’m not too excited by the thought of Enrique Hernandez on an everyday basis.
Tim: How close to being a MLBer is Khalil Lee? What’s his most likely future? Thanks.
Keith Law: I think Downs could, yes.
Keith Law: Lee is probably not far at all from being a big leaguer, but he has a real adjustment to make before he’s a regular (and the hope is that he started to make it at the alt site).

Salty: You mentioned last chat about not investing in crypto partially because it’s an environmental disaster.  I don’t get involved with it personally due to a lack of understanding and confidence in it, but never thought of it in that light.  Can you please expound on that, unless you feel this isn’t the best format to do so?
Keith Law: I believe I linked to it in the last chat. Cryptocurrencies require tremendous computing power, and the energy used to support them already rivals some countries’ entire energy usage. And to what end? None, other than speculation.

Heather: What’s your favorite conspiracy theory that you secretly think, “Yeah, that one might actually be true”?  Roswell, the JFK assassination, the Patrick Ewing Lottery Fix, pedophile pizza parlors?
Keith Law: I mean, one of those things (Ewing) is not like the others. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to hear a pro sports league rigged something to ensure that a player went to a specific market – or, worse, to ensure that, say, Michael Jordan never fouled out of a game because it would crush TV ratings. The other three things you mentioned are all basically nuts.

Brian: I had a question there (I’m the Dylan Cease guy) and hit send too soon. My question was if you were the WSox, would you rather have Dylan Cease or Dane Dunning?
Keith Law: Cease.

Chris P: Didn’t see Derek Hill in your top 20 for the Tigers. You had been higher on him than most in the past due to his athleticism, but has he gone past the prospect level now?
Keith Law: With no evidence to say he’s going to either make more contact or hit the ball harder than he did in 2019, we have a 25-year-old whose ceiling is fourth outfielder.

Todd Boss: When Jared Kelenic is sent to AAA on April 1st for two weeks, how big will the outrage be?
Keith Law: He has more reason for a grievance than Kris Bryant did, given Mather’s comments. That said, is Kelenic actually ready for the majors? Do we know that? The Mariners might have a good answer, but with no minor league season in 2020, we’d just be guessing.

Kori: Hi Keith – if Austin Beck can (a big if) bring his hit tool to 40, does that rest of the package make him an average regular?
Keith Law: Don’t think so. 45 yes, 40 no.
Keith Law: Well … even at a 45, is the power he shows in BP also showing up in games? Or does he get to that grade 45 (thus still below average) hit tool by shortening up and trading power for contact?

Matthew: Catcher of the future in Toronto: Jansen, Kirk, or…?
Keith Law: I might bet on Moreno over Kirk, but it’s not Jansen.

Old Prospector: Do you think Francisco Mejia can be an everyday player in MLB?
Keith Law: I do. There are few guys who hit like he did in the minors and then completely fail to hit in the majors. Andy Marte comes to mind. But they’re rare.
Keith Law: And Mejia didn’t just put up empty numbers. He really hit, with some impact, and a good swing, and scouts agreed with the stat lines.

Old Prospector: Obviously it is going to be a rough year in Pittsburgh. Beyond Hayes and Keller, is there anyone on the big league roster you think could be a valuable contributor the next time the Pirates are competing for a playoff spot?
Keith Law: I could see Reynolds ending up on that roster 3-4 years from now. Anyone else of merit would be gone by then, though.

Jay: Do you think we’ll ever see two DHs? Or teams use their DH for their catcher instead of the pitcher? It feels like catcher’s are getting worse offensively as a collective for some time now.
Keith Law: No, I don’t, and I don’t agree on the latter point. I think catchers hit about as well as they did 30-40 years ago, but they catch better.

Dan: Do you think Vlad will be able to make the adjustment(s) to get the ball in the air more this year? I know it’s super early in his career, but was that ever a concern of yours/anyone’s regarding his swing? I can’t recall ever reading anything about his GB%.
Keith Law: I think he will at some point, but all the people excited about his weight loss seem to think the two are connected and they’re absolutely not.

Sandy Alderson: Is Biden reopening the child detention facility as bad as it sounds? What do we do to hold him accountable?
Keith Law: It isn’t as bad as it sounds, but that didn’t stop everyone from reacting to a headline. They had to reopen the facility to comply with COVID-19 prevention guidelines. The Washington Post and NPR both fact-checked this claim.

Dr. Bob: Isn’t the problem that Kelenic can’t file a grievance if he’s sent down because he won’t be represented by the union until he comes up?
Keith Law: Bryant wasn’t either. He still filed one (and lost).

Jay: When COL signed Arenado to his extension, I thought COL signed him for a good $/WAR/year and it was a good value. Why did they have to kick in an extra $50M to trade him for prospects with such limited ceilings and FV?
Keith Law: Poor negotiating by the Rockies? I don’t have another answer.

Prospector: Who would your project for better offensive production if they both reach close to their ceilings – CJ Abrams or Ronny Mauricio?
Keith Law: Abrams.

Jay: Give me hope that Blaze Jordan will be an all-star. Not because I like the Red Sox, but because we need more Dodgeball named guys in MLB
Keith Law: Extremely unlikely. Singles hitting first baseman. Needs a massive swing overhaul to get to his power.

Old Prospector: Any thoughts on Elijah Greene? Is he a potentially generational type 1-1 pick type guy?
Keith Law: He’s going to be a high pick in 2022 – there was some talk he’d try to reclassify into 2021 – but I am not putting that tag on him yet.

JJ: I don’t think everyone involved in the JFK assassination was arrested.  Oliver Stone made everyone who thinks that way look like a lunatic, however.  Thanks, Oliver.
Keith Law: I haven’t seen that movie, essentially for that reason: ultimately he’s trafficking in, and profiting from, conspiracy theories. I know people say the movie is great. I can’t watch it with clear eyes.

davealden53: First time since your wedding that I’ve stumbled upon one of your chats while it was still going on.  Congrats on the wedding and especially on the letter you wrote about it.  The letter was so sincere and quietly joyful that I’ve yet to delete it but instead return to reread it regularly.
Keith Law: thank you! you haven’t missed many chats – this is only my third since I got married – but I appreciate the kind words.

Andy: I know you haven’t done draft rankings yet but Leiter v Rocker, who are you leaning towards having higher? Also, is that top 2 better (in college) than UCLA’s of Cole-Bauer?
Keith Law: Draft rankings next week. I have never understood the idea that Rocker was some obvious 1-1 guy. He’s not. And I don’t think he’s going to be 1 on my ranking. This is some combination of him throwing the no-hitter two years ago and being famous and good in high school (he was), but those aren’t reasons for a player to be taken first overall.

Todd Boss: Will the ill-advised comments of now resigned Mariner’s president have a profound effect on the next CBA?  Or will his comments be spun as the words of a raving mad-man that are completely untrue?
Keith Law: I’m hopeful it encourages the players to take a harder line this time around, after they went for quality of life improvements in the last negotiations but ended up conceding too much ground on other fronts, including the luxury tax and the international free agency system.

Lacey: Hey Keith, do you have any baseball podcast series you’d recommened? I just finished The Edge about the Astros and loved it. Anything along those lines?
Keith Law: No, sorry, even in a pre-pandemic world I only listened to 3-4 podcasts, and now without time in the car I have a hard time keeping up with those.

Matt: What’s your take on Mitch Keller….didn’t allow a hit in his last eleven innings, but walked ten guys….
Keith Law: We know by now that pitchers not allowing hits is at least partly a function of luck/defense, and not exclusively a credit to the pitcher. You’re also asking about a sample so small it’s meaningless. Keller’s main problem is the lack of a third pitch to get lefties out – in 2020, he walked 11 LHB and struck out 6, and he’s had problems with LHB going back at least to AA.

Guest: What will be the highest priority for the union in the next CBA: fixing service time manipulation, making drastic changes to the luxury tax, reducing the number of controlled years from 6 to something like 4, something else?
Keith Law: It should be the luxury tax, although I would also like to see them reduce the number of years to free agency to 5.

Chris: You’re forced to answer, which team is the best run organization in baseball right now?
Keith Law: Fun fact: I am not forced to answer, so I won’t. There are many well-run organizations in baseball right now.

Len: Macro Luciano – can he become a GUY?
Keith Law: Yes.

Chris: I’m a huge Dodger fan, but I just absolutely love what the Padres have done the last couple of years (minus Hosmer). It is just so refreshing to see a team trying to win (and what a weird thing to say about professional sports).
Keith Law: It’s great for baseball, but isn’t it good business? Sure, you can take easy profits from revenue sharing, but if you want the bigger payoff, doesn’t it make sense to exploit the inefficiency of other teams essentially doing as little as possible and try to win? If the Padres end up with their first World Championship, it will also result in a large windfall for the owners.

Dee Arby: Our educational system needs a massive overhaul, what core subjects outside of science and math should we be teaching the kids?
Keith Law: Critical thinking. That’s more of a multi-disciplinary thing, but teaching students to read with a critical eye – perhaps using the SIFT method – and understand how to tell when someone is lying or misleading them, or when a conclusion isn’t supported by the evidence provided, or how unconscious biases might affect what they see and think.

Nate: Not a baseball comment — having the league fix the draft lottery so the Knicks win the rights to Patrick Ewing, then never winning a championship with Patrick Ewing, is so typical of the Knicks.  They can’t even cheat properly.
Keith Law: That joke was the best thing in all of Soul.

Guest: Just saw Royce Lewis, top prospect of Twins shows up for Spring Training and under preliminary physical is revealed to have torn ACL and out for the year.  As an athlete, how can you have that serious an injury and not know???
Keith Law: Perhaps he was hoping for a better outcome? I’m sure lots of us have had health scares, or know people who’ve had, where you knew something was wrong but hoped or prayed (if you’re so inclined) for a better diagnosis than the worst case scenario.

JR: Has tanking gone so far that it’s become a strategy for not really trying but we can tell our fans it’s our plan? I feel like Cubs/Astros started this trend, and it worked for the most part for them.  Other teams have tried but seemed to only be serious about the tanking aspect and not the “spending once we get good” aspect, yet they keep using tanking to stay bad/not spend.
Keith Law: The “we’ll spend when we get good” line is the key here. As long as fans buy it, they’ll sell that … and never spend.

Pat: Courses that should be mandatory in school- Some type of personal finance. Teach kids about credit, stocks, interest, borrowing, student loans, etc. I wonder how much lesser the student loan debt crisis would be if young people at least had a basic understanding of what they’re signing.
Keith Law: Yes. I’d rather see a full year of economics – half on personal finance, half on how the economy actually works – than a fourth year of English (or literature). I say that as an avid reader, too. The former is a lot more useful for life after high school than reading Pride and Prejudice and An American Tragedy.

Rules for Thee: Why did you feel it appropriate to have a wedding ceremony amidst the pandemic?  I know you said you were in compliance with Delaware regulations but you’ve also criticized those regulations.  So which is it?  Abiding the regulations makes approved activities safe?  Or the state’s regulations are putting people needlessly at risk?
Keith Law: That’s simply false. I did not criticize Delaware’s regulations on gatherings, which were very strict and right to be so. We adhered to those, with a tiny reception, and to mask and distancing guidelines as well. I have criticized the lax rules on bars being open, though. Go troll somewhere else.

Frank: Please fine “Rules for Thee” $5 for baiting.
Keith Law: Oh, absolutely.

Chris: I’m wondering if you have an opinion on a team having a fixation in the international market for specific countries.  The Dodgers seem to skew heavily towards Venezuela right now, for example.
Keith Law: That was true at some points in the past – Houston had a longstanding affinity for Venezuelan prospects in the 1990s – but I don’t know if that’s feasible now with a hard cap on international bonuses. That said, the failed state in VZ and danger of travel there could also mean an opportunity for teams willing to take that risk or spend more for personal security there.

Guest: Keith, what does it say about an organization that just a year or so ago would sign a young player like Arrenado (or in NFL, Wentz or Goff) to huge 9 figure contracts and then move on??
Keith Law: Aren’t those NFL deals non-guaranteed? I don’t think it’s a perfect analogy. Also, Carson Wentz held the ball for your entire question and just got sacked.

Oscar: Have you ever considered designing your own board game? It’s not like you have too many other things going on . . .
Keith Law: Yes. It’s a time-consuming task, though, and I have so much else I need or want to do.

Guest: Keith, as a follow-up to the Mather talk:  Don’t  these multi-billion dollar organizations have internal media training and updating memos of how and what to say in public??  It seems like such an easy answer to a lot of stupidity.
Keith Law: Yes. I’m not sure they think to include Presidents and CEOs in those. Isn’t there an assumption (wrong, obviously) that if you’ve risen to that point you already know how to deal with the public?

Joe: What percentage which you say AAA games happen in early April at home stadiums? How about the other levels in May?
Keith Law: I think the games will happen – figure maybe 20% are cancelled due to positive tests – without fans until at least May. MLB may just have to accept that they need to subsidize some of those teams, which is only fair since they just executed a hostile takeover of the minors anyway.

Mike Trout: Longtime reader so seeing you comment and watch football is a little jarring. What do you like about it now that you didn’t seem to like before?
Keith Law: I married an Eagles fan. Although I have to say I prefer watching rugby. As long as we beat the English, I don’t care!
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks so much for reading, especially with the large amount of content I dumped on you in the past month. I will have a draft ranking up next week, and remember that The Inside Game is coming out in paperback on April 6th. You can pre-order it now, and maybe I’ll get to do some signing events this summer once more of us are vaccinated too. Stay safe everyone!

Starting today at 1 pm. I ranked all 30 farm systems for subscribers to the Athletic yesterday, and my team-by-team top 20s and org reports began today with the AL East – Baltimore, Boston, NY Yankees, Tampa Bay, and Toronto. Also, I reviewed the fun press-your-luck game 7 Summits for Paste.

Keith Law: Use your detour, life’s like a seesaw. Klawchat.

RJ: How much of a change does the Khalil Lee trade make for the Royals and Mets
Keith Law: In their system rankings? None. But Lee is now on the Mets’ top 20, which will run early next week, and was 8th on the Royals’ list.

Trevor: Klaw – even amidst the financial uncertainty teams still PAID the top tier players with high-dollar or long-term contracts. Of the four, 5+ year or 9-figure contracts (Springer, JT, DJ, Bauer), which would you be most comfortable investing in holding it’s value?
Keith Law: Springer. That’s why he was #1 on my list – best long-term impact.

Max: I know it hasn’t been a full two years, but are you seeing changes with the Astros under Click re: incorporating traditional scouting alongside the advanced metrics?
Keith Law: Not yet, but I also think he wasn’t able to staff up effectively during the pandemic.

addoeh: Ford Proctor; new compact sport-utility EV being released later this year or Rays IF/C prospect?
Keith Law: Or protagonist in a bad 1980s action movie?

John Olerud: Why do you hate my Mariners? Seriously, though, on a pure baseball front, no matter where one is to rank the Ms farm system overall, it does seem that (despite maybe a few cringe-worthy moves during Dipoto’s “trade a paperclip for a house” phase) for the first time in a long time Seattle might  finally have some workable approach to drafting and development. That said, in knowing what you know and talking to the people you trust to put together these lists, would you agree with this sentiment? Or do you think in your estimation that the Ms ownership would do better not to extend Dipoto’s current contract and look elsewhere?
Keith Law: I do think they’re heading in the right direction on multiple fronts, not least of which is that they’re keeping prospects rather than trading them. I think the confusion among some Mariners fans is that the top of the system is so good – and hasn’t been like this in at least a decade – but it falls off very quickly after the top tier of seven guys.

NYT Parody Lede: Former President Trump may have incited the insurrection at the Capitol on January 6, but these five people in this Ohio diner think he didn’t do anything wrong.
Keith Law: Don’t give the Grey Lady any ideas.

nickolai: Thoughts on MLB’s decision to deaden the ball for 2021?  A return to sanity, or just something else MLB will F up?
Keith Law: Half measure. Really need to see the strike zone change as well, or we’re going to end up with fewer home runs but no reduction in strikeouts.

Ben (MN): The running joke is that you hate every fan’s favorite team, but do you ever get negative feedback from people in the business (non-players or family members)? I’d imagine it would look a lot different than the internet comments, but any angry voicemails or texts over the years saying something like “how can player X not make your list”?
Keith Law: Extremely rarely. It’s what makes fan complaints so hilarious. Team execs know my information is good and my opinions are at least backed by research and evidence (which doesn’t make them right, of course). But this is the time of year when every fan is an expert on the other 29 teams’ prospects.

xxx(yyy): favorite cold weather food?
Keith Law: The most honest answer is pizza, which is also my favorite hot weather food, and my favorite lukewarm weather food.

Deke: I’m sure the massive deadline was a good motivator, but how are you/have you been dealing with 2020/2021-based ennui? I feel like everybody I know has hit a wall over the past few weeks.
Keith Law: What’s really hurt is the sudden arrival of more snow and ice than we’ve had in Delaware in at least five years, so I haven’t been able to run much at all. I’m playing some more games online, and trying to meditate more, but like you I am just over all of this. I will finish all the team writeups by EOD Monday and I’m going to take a couple of days to recharge somehow.

Alex: Looking at the Marcell Ozuna contract as a Braves fan, I can’t help thinking that it was an outright steal. Of course, it feels like every corner outfielder has been underpaid this winter. Since he’ll be playing the field for one more season, how many runs do you think he’s likely to give back with the glove? Do you feel that his negative defensive value is overstated or is he really Adam Dunn out there?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s as bad as Adam Dunn and I agree the deal was great value for them.

Guest: While I’m not disappointed with the Mets offseason (Porter notwithstanding) I thought there were some head scratching moves. The Springer thing I could understand because of DH uncertainty. I thought they overpaid for Mccann. Also, why not try and make a better offer for Darvish? I’d rather get him than pay $40m for Bauer. OR try and get Arenado.
Keith Law: They could have topped the Arenado offer, certainly, although I have no complaints about them acquiring Lindor and Carrasco.

John: Hi Keith! Could you please compare Robert Hassell vs Zac Veen in terms of overall raw tools ? Who is better prospect ? Thanks
Keith Law: I think that question is answered more fully on my top 100 than I could give you here.

Ben: Hi Keith. Thanks as always for your work. Do you hear any scuttlebut or have any theories on why the Yankees seem to have so much trouble keeping their players—at both the minor and major league level—healthy?
Keith Law: Is that true? More so than other clubs?

Fred: Besides Dylan Carlson, which Cardinals’ prospects have the highest ceiling? Walker? Winn? Hence?
Keith Law: Probably Walker, but his probability is low – he has a ways to go with the bat. He’s as raw a hitter as the typical Mississippi high school product (he’s from Georgia, so I’m saying he’s analogous to MS kids, who have the worst track record in the draft of any southern state).

Onion Bubs: You may have addressed this somewhere before, and if so, I apologize: When ranking farm systems, how much do you weigh the top few prospects vs. the depth of the system?
Keith Law: You need both. A system with 4-5 high-end prospects but no depth is not going to rank ahead of a system with 3 high-end prospects but depth of 10-12 more guys with everyday upside.

Chris: Thoughts on the Bauer contract?
Keith Law: No.

Arty: If you’re the Cardinals, given how the infield is looking, do you feel comfortable going into the season with an outfield mix of O’Neill/J. Williams/L. Thomas/Bader/Carlson or do you think they should add another OF to the mix?
Keith Law: I really hope they give Williams a shot. He’s never been an elite prospect but I think he’s a big leaguer, and he may surprise us and be a soft regular.

Jason: Pecota has the brewers winning the central. Do you agree? and, do you think they should sign Turner if they can?
Keith Law: Without doing any real work to investigate the question I would pick the Cardinals.

Dave: Thanks for the time today.  From the prospect stable of middle infielders – who do you ultimately see as the 2B/SS combo for Cleveland?
Kane: What can you tell us about the Diamondbacks host of pitching prospects? Anyone stick out to you as someone who pitches near the front of their future rotation?
Keith Law: If Arias hits, he’s your shortstop, but that’s a huge if. Rocchio at 2b seems like the most probable of their current MIF prospects to stay at a position and hit.
Keith Law: Dbacks report will be up next week but I think Walston’s their top pitchiing prospect in terms of ceiling and also present value.

Chris: Hi Keith I’m looking at the mariners ranking of 13th compared to being 11th last year and noticed you increased the rankings of their 1, 3, 4 and 5 prospect from this year to last and that they retained prospect eligibility of the majority of their top 15. What led to this drop, did other systems improve a lot, was last year a down year, or did the graduation of sheffield and lewis (7 and 10 last year) effect their ranking more so than the addition of hancock (rated higher than white) and trammell (rated higher than dunn)?
Keith Law: There are 29 other teams in baseball and their systems also changed in the last year.

Jason: Thoughts on Keston Hiura playing first?
Keith Law: I wonder if he’s really going to hit enough to be more than a 50 there. He can hit, but I don’t see more than average power, and his other tools are all limited.

Ben: Do you think Brian Cashman sees the Dodgers acting like a big market team with big revenues and feels frustrated that Steinbrenner won’t let him do likewise?
Keith Law: I mean, I could see 28 other GMs playing a symphony on the world’s 28 tiniest violins.

Mike: Hi Keith. Love your books and all your writing! Question about PTBNL. When the Sox have 3 of them in this deal do they have an actual list of names they can choose from in the future or are there just parameters of the types of guys? Thanks!
Keith Law: In this deal I assume there’s a list for each team – you can take 2 of these 5.

Thomas: Your ranking of my team’s prospects isn’t as favorable as some other media outlets’. Therefore, I will choose to assume yours must be wrong. Definitely no confirmation bias here.
Keith Law: Every year.

Jake: I’m curious about what you heard about Seth Corry to jump him into your Top 100. I don’t believe he ever made it to the alternate camp so not even that meager bit of playing time last year.
Keith Law: Instructs.

Reverend Cory: Thanks for all your hard work Keith! Long winded question here. I grew to appreciate and generally love the use of analytics in the game over the past 15 years, but the last 2-3 I’ve started to sour on how organizations use them. Seems like we now have a league where every team is run like a hedge fund. It provides a great ROI for the owners, but it’s taken a toll on my enjoyment for the game. Do you think there is a solution for this? Thanks again.
Keith Law: MLB is set up as an effective profit machine in which it is no longer necessary for teams to win to make money.
Keith Law: I don’t know how you fix that other than creating incentives for teams to win.

MannyKay: I’ve never seen any mention of The Strokes on your music lists. They’re easily my favorite band of the 2000s. Are you not a fan?
Keith Law: Not really. Not not a fan, but I don’t find their music that interesting.

Ben (MN): Keith, I appreciate your willingness to discuss your own experiences with mental health. My wife has struggled to control anxiety, and often has trouble sleeping more than 5-6 hours a night (or less), largely due to her anxiety. The problem can spiral out of control at times, with poor sleep leading to anxiety about sleep, leading to more poor sleep, leading to more anxiety in daily life, etc. It seems to be at least partially genetic as her mom had a similar experience. She has been reluctant to seek help, largely because she is worried they will recommend medication, which she doesn’t want. Do you have any advice for positively encouraging people who may be reluctant to seek help for anxiety/mental health needs?
Keith Law: The most significant point I would make to your wife is that there are many medications available for GAD, and they are effective for many people at low doses that have limited side effects. I have been on SSRIs for over 8 years. I was also worried about starting one, worried that it would change my personality (it did, sort of, but for the better!) or that it would dull my thinking (it has not). I understand the hesitancy, but medication for my anxiety has been an unmitigated positive.

Jake: Have you heard anything more on how teams will organize their non full season prospects without the short season leagues? Any chance we see teams evolve towards 2 complex league teams mirroring hi and lo A ball?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s what will happen, which I think is kind of stupid in that there are communities out there that would gladly host these teams and allow someone to make a little money off attendance while baseball continued to build the national fan base, but instead they’re going to run twice as many teams in AZ and FL in the middle of the summer when it’s a thousand fucking degrees outside and all those players will play in front of no fans.

Arnold: Although the pandemic hospital rates are falling, it still seems like a bad idea to be opening spring training so soon.  MLB proposed pushing back the start, but the players objected and MLB caved.  I am pro-player on most disputes with management, but the players seem short-sighted on this.
Keith Law: The players didn’t object; they held to the terms of the collectively bargained agreement. I do think the season should be pushed back, but I don’t blame the players on this.

Arty: Reports are that Nolan Gorman is going to get a position switch now that Arenado and Goldschmidt have the corners locked down for a few years.. Can he handle 2B or is more likely going to have to move to LF?
Keith Law: I’d say right field.

Eric: Wader Franco+Fernando Tatis Jr+Ronald Acuña+Juan Soto=baseball is in good hands
Keith Law: Yes, if MLB gets more serious about marketing its nonwhite players. Especially those whose first language isn’t English. I think Tatis should be on the cover of everything, in every commercial, and to be fair I’m seeing more of him out there in the non-baseball world than I can remember seeing previous Latino stars, but MLB has to build massive campaigns around these guys.

Guest: Hi Keith, I’m wondering, if at all, how do certain teams developmental infrastructure impact your rankings? For example if a pitcher with the Rays get the benefit of the doubt more than say the Cubs who haven’t developed a pitcher in what seems like decade. I’m assuming evaluators like yourself would say not at all, but even subconciously
Keith Law: No, you can’t do that because any player can change organizations at any time (like Khalil Lee!). The player evaluations are all team-agnostic.

MannyKay: Based on your positive comments about Jahmai Jones’ potential, is it fair to say the Orioles won that trade in your opinion?
Keith Law: Yes, no-brainer for them. I love Jones and think he’ll thrive there.

Chamaco: Apologies if he is on your top 100 list or graduated off of it (and I just missed this), but I was wondering what you thought about Michael Kopech’s potential this year and in the future? If you Google “Michael Kopech,” you find a lot of non-baseball related articles, which can make it more challenging to find good information on him.
Keith Law: He’s on the top 100.

Matt: FYI- Many board games, including some on your Top 100, are buy 2 get 1 free at Target and Amazon today.
Keith Law: I’m looking at the amazon list now – from the BOGO list, I would recommend Splendor, Ticket to Ride, Blokus, Castles of Burgundy, and King of Tokyo.

Chris P: While I think Cavan Biggio is at least deserving of a roster spot, I really think the Jays should try to move him now while his value is likely going to be at its highest. The fact he struggles against quality fastballs is concerning.
Keith Law: It’s fatal. He can’t hit what is now an average major-league fastball. That’s why his best month in the majors has been September – he sees lower-quality pitching and pads the stats against them. I agree, I would shop him now, but to be honest, most other teams see the same flaws. His value is very low.

xxx(yyy): anything specific on the valentines menu for this weekend?
Keith Law: I haven’t planned that yet … I’ve got some CSA options still here and will figure something out around whatever veg I haven’t used elsewhere yet. I have a few ideas at least.

Jose: Do expect fans to be allowed at the minor leagues games this season ?
Keith Law: I do not, and if we’re not mostly vaccinated I don’t want fans at the games even (or especially) if they allow scouts and media.

Dee Arby: What are your thoughts on how we can become a more intellectual society? Or is that just a pipe dream and the masses will always be extremely gullible?
Keith Law: Greater investment in public education. Unfortunately we’re heading the other way, with huge dark-money efforts undermining public education (funded in part by the Dbacks’ owners) or trying to push right-wing ideologies into schools.

Rodney: Loved reading your Jays list this morning. How do you think time at the alt site changes a timeline for a player like Gabriel Moreno? The hitting approach seems advanced for his age, but catching takes time. Could he start at High-A, but see AA this year with a mid-2022 timeline, whether it’s in Toronto or elsewhere via trade?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d say that’s a possible-optimistic timeline.

Chris P: There were a few goons in the comments of an article on The Athletic about the health and safety protocols MLB and the PA agreed on, that were saying this is stupid because it’s all based on fear of something that isn’t *really* that dangerous. Regardless of if they are correct (they aren’t), how can people not see that this is also a huge financial issue. Imagine a player, staff, ump, or someone associated with them dies from Covid when it could have been prevented or at a minimum, addressed by the league like this. The money they’d have to pay out is worth way more than just a few health and safety rules.
Keith Law: Or, if you want to be really callous, the lost productivity when there’s a community outbreak, with associated quarantining, caused by MLB activity.

Santaspirt: I know you look back on previous top 100 lists you make and are always trying to improve your evaluations. You mention specifically undervaluing Goldschmidt as a prospect and using that example to evaluate Hoskins. The majors is littered with players who never made a top 100 – are there any other types you’ve noticed that are being undervalued at the moment? Types who don’t look like much but consistently break in to the show?
Keith Law: You may notice in a lot of my writeups this year acknowledgments of players who are under six feet but still project as big leaguers, even as stars (Corbin Carroll). I think that industry bias is still strong.
Keith Law: I mean, if Carroll was 6’3″, he goes top 3.

Nolan: I’m curious why Bauer seems to be causing such a clear divide within the baseball fandom. The most generous read of his behavior is he’s a troll. That’s just who he is and the online presence he’s cultivated, regardless of your take on it. But people seemed to have reacted so strongly to writers just pointing out that he has a history of behavior that any club would have to consider when deciding if they should sign him. Is that the main issue, that what some view as “censorship” or “cancel culture” is really just due diligence on a guy someone is about to pay an obscene amount of money to? Wouldn’t any club *rather* their 40m a year pitcher not also be an internet troll?
Keith Law: I do think some of his fans view this as cancel culture stuff, but I would be far more concerned that, given the chance to acknowledge his history of bullying on social media and promising to learn from the feedback, he chose to deny it all. That unwillingness to take responsibility for his words and actions does not speak well for the accountability he will have to take as a player and member of a new team.

Zac: Can you explain the difference between a #1 and #2 and #3 pitcher is?I think it would help me understand your prospect breakdown and why a pitchers ceiling is where it is?
Keith Law: I think of them in tiers. There should be about 15 aces (#1 starters) in any given year, give or take a few. Each tier below that – 2, 3, 4 – would have about 30 guys, one per team. There might be 30 Opening Day starters, guys who are first in their teams’ rotations, but they’re not all truly #1 starters who’d be aces on a majority of teams.

Alex: Does Tevin Vavra have enough of an arm to play 2b (one of the Os blogs had concerns of him playing 2b, much less filling in at SS)?
Keith Law: Yes.

Chris P: It has been pretty tough since the holidays with the weather and tighter restrictions, so I just want to say thanks for keeping up with the prospect rankings and giving us something to look forward to. My interest in baseball feels like it’s been waning, so this is coming at a great time.
Keith Law: Here’s hoping we get games soon for us to watch and argue about.

Aaron C.: Any new recipes/cookbook endeavors in klawland?
Keith Law: Cookbooks no, but the CSA has pushed us to try a lot of new recipes. This has been a huge hit – pasta with sausage, broccoli rabe, and chickpeas. I used chicken sausage and about 50% more pecorino romano than the recipe called for.

xxx(yyy): wife and i are going to go back and watch some classic movies she hasn’t seen – any comedies you think that stand the test of time?
Keith Law: His Girl Friday.

Dan: Thanks for that chat even though it’s so obvious you hate my team. I was surprised by what seems like a light return for Benintendi. Had the bottom really fallen out that much for him? Do you expect a return to the performance from even his rookie season?
Keith Law: He seems like he needs swing help, maybe something significant, and/or the Red Sox just felt they couldn’t help him develop any further. I’m shocked – I thought he’d be far better than this, at least hitting for consistently high averages even if he didn’t have 20+ HR power.

Tristan: Reading your org rankings, I’m struck by how quickly the Jays have rebuilt. They started after teams like Baltimore and Detroit who still seem years away from being years away. Is the credit deserved org-wide, or are there key personnel you look at driving this success?
Keith Law: It’s org-wide IMO but I also think their international scouting department deserves to be singled out for their substantial contributions.

Aaron C.: When you penned your “joined the Athletic” piece, you mentioned possibly writing about labor relations IIRC. Still in the cards for you/your editor?
Keith Law: Yes, hoping to get to that soon, now that we’re in CBA negotiation time.

Jon Weisman: Hi Keith. Would you be able to name your five favorite comic-strip characters of all time? (BTW, I’m not strict about it being exactly five.)
Keith Law: Opus, Steve Dallas, Hodgepodge, Portnoy, Calvin.

Dee Arby: Hitters who make the majors by age 20 usually turn out to be stars.  Is this the year Devers goes full bonkers?
Keith Law: He was pretty good in 2019. I’m still a buyer.

PJ: any chance the new CBA will allow players to hit free agency earlier? Seems like front offices are more weary of giving big contracts to 30/31yr olds, and that is what is driving these slow and underwhelming hot stove winters
Keith Law: I’d love to see that. Owners supported it in 1994 – they tried to force through much earlier free agency, I think after 4 years – but I don’t think they would do so now.

Pat D: I feel like this is the least interested I’ve been in the Oscars since before I became capable of seeing movies independently, even though it seems like I can watch all of the contenders through various streaming services.  I’m not sure if this is due to not being constantly bombarded with trailers and promotion due to lack of theater-going, or just general malaise from the year of COVID.  What’s your interest level this year?
Keith Law: Interested but we haven’t had time to see enough contenders yet, and the fact that the overall favorite, Nomadland, is still trying to do theatrical runs not only dims my interest but actively pisses me off. There’s a pandemic going on right now. Nobody should be watching movies in theaters.

Eric: Is Donald trump the worst American alive?
Keith Law: High bar to clear.

Jason (D.C.): If you’re the Rays, what do you do with middle infield when Wander Franco ready? Should they trade Adames or move to 2B? I assume Brujan will be there.
Keith Law: I bet Adames ends up traded. Not a knock on him, but he’d have more value in trade than he would as a 3b for them.

Tom: Can Brian goodwin be a league average OF for the pirates?
Keith Law: No. I’d bet on Oliva over Goodwin, although I think Oliva is a food 4th OF.

Todd Boss: In all your time ranking organizational farm systems, what would you say were your individual best and worst systems?  Like, 2018 Atlanta or 2019 San Diego as best and maybe Baltimore 2018 as worst?
Keith Law: The Angels had the worst ever, maybe five years ago. This year’s Rays’ system would make my top 3. San Diego 2019 is probably the best.

Casey: Do you think the Reds offseason was bad enough that they should look into kick starting a rebuild? Suarez and Gray look like great trade assets, and with the coming compensatory picks, that could move the Farm System in the top 10 in my opinion.
Keith Law: I’d trade Suarez to try to fill shortstop, move Senzel back to the infield, and still hope to compete this year.

xxx(yyy): What prospect were you the most “sure” on that ended up missing? Why? Assuming that guys like Josh Hamilton doesn’t really count since his issues were off the field-based
Keith Law: Justin Smoak.
Keith Law: It wasn’t just me – I remember pro scouts seeing him in his first go-round in pro ball, saying how did this guy get to the 11th pick.

Adam: Should the Padres regret not delaying Tatis’ service time? He’s already two years closer to FA without even playing 162 games.
Keith Law: I don’t think they regret it one bit after that playoff run in 2020.

JL: Assuming they have rotational health this year (a big assumption), what happens with Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint and Bryse Wilson? Especially for Wright and Touki, proving they can pitch in AAA isn’t the problem. If feels like a waste to have them not getting big league innings. Will it hurt development to have them pitch in Gwinnett for most of another season?
Keith Law: I’d put Touki in a longman role. He needs reps in the majors and that’s the best way to get them.

Sim: You mentioned in your last chat that Oneil Cruz’s legal issues had no bearing on him dropping off of your top-100. Was there something specific in his performance in the Dominican this past year that caused you to drop him 30+ spots in the rankings? I’m assuming the Pirates list will clarify some things.
Keith Law: There is no “dropping.” This isn’t Billboard where players move up or down with a bullet. I start each list from scratch.
Keith Law: I couldn’t tell you without looking where O’Neil Cruz was a year ago on my rankings. I can tell you I really don’t think he’s a shortstop.

Eric: Is a regular-stuffed Oreo still an Oreo?
Keith Law: That is the only Oreo.

Scully: In the Red Sox ’21 prospect rankings, you mention Dalbec could wind up on the roster depending what they do with Devers.  Would that be a positional move to 1B for Rafael?
Keith Law: Yes, I know that’s been discussed.

Ed: What do you see as probability of a Vlad Jr breakout this year? He seems to be more committed after his down, by his standards,  last season and seeing his contemporaries explode on the scene.
Keith Law: It’s really about the swing. He’s a bright enough kid to figure it out on his own but my understanding is he’s not someone they’re going to be able to take aside for a whole swing optimization.

nb: Keith – Mazel Tov on the wedding!  Glad something good came out of 2020!  I get that the Phillies system is bad, but do you think there’s hope for it to move up?  Seems like the oast 2 drafts have been good and they have some younger guys like Kendall Simmons.  Thanks!
Keith Law: I agree. Also one of their best prospects, Luis Garcia, had a horrible 2019 (not entirely his fault) and didn’t get 2020 to reestablish himself.

Scully: I’m sure you’ll write up an analysis of the KC-BOST-NYM trade… any quick thoughts you’d like to share here?
Keith Law: I won’t write it up, not with 3 players’ identities still unknown.

JL: No question, but just wanted to say that I re-read Smart Baseball this winter and am halfway through Inside Game and they’re two of the best books I’ve read in a long time. I even got a co-worker who is marginally interested in baseball to read Smart Baseball and he loved it.
Keith Law: Thank you. You can pre-order the paperback edition of The Inside Game, due out April 6th.
Keith Law: Sorry, I suddenly needed to eat some Oreos.

Paul: What does GM do all day? Not sarcastic, but when they’re saying we’re monitoring the trade market etc. does that mean they’re on the phone with 29 other GMs just asking if they’re buying or selling? If you’re Al Avila and you’re know you’re not making any big moves in the offseason – what are they doing all week?
Keith Law: Running an entire organization. The job of a GM is a lot more than just player acquisitions.

Jim Ed: Thoughts on the Red Sox returns in the Beni trade?
Keith Law: I like PTBNL #2 more than PTBNL #1 or PTBNL #3.

Jeb: No desire to have this posted. Just wanted to say thanks, as an Athletic subscriber. Love the content. I used your signup code so hopefully you get credit for my account in some manner.
Keith Law: I do get ‘credit,’ at least in the sense that the Athletic keeps track of such things, and I do too to see what readers particularly like or don’t like.

Ridley: I’ve seen you list “True Faith” as a perfect song and I wholeheartedly agree. Are there any others on your list? *stares in “Under The Milky Way”*
Keith Law: Great song as well.

Don Gately: the O’Neill Cruz situation just kind of went away and it seems like he’ll just be back with the club for spring. Was anything released about how/why it didn’t go further?
Keith Law: He was exonerated. And most importantly alcohol was not a factor.

Eric: @Ben – I have severe anxiety disorder. It took a full-on breakdown for me to seek help, and I wish I had sooner. Lexapro (for anxiety) and thc/cbd (For sleep) have been godsends.
Keith Law: I can’t vouch for the weed part personally but I appreciate your comments here.

John Olerud: Thank you so much for your response. If there is time for a follow up and continuing on with what you said: even if the Ms or any top-heavy farm system lacks depth, if they were to “really hit” on, say, four or more of those top 7 (given the overall quality of that bunch), would  you say they might be in a better position to compete down the road than some of the teams you rank above? That is, given that generally teams are trying to get as much value or WAR as they can out of each key position on the field, I guess I’m just wondering or trying to calibrate how to assess quality vs. quantity in a albeit unrealistic vacuum where every prospect were to reach their “future value” potential.
Keith Law: OK, but then why are we assuming the M’s will hit on 4 of those top 7 but not assuming a similar ‘hit’ rate for any clubs around them?

J. hawley: IF YOU KEEP CANCELING AND SILENCING ME I WILL KEEP GOING ON NATIONAL NEWS SHOWS TO TELL YOU HOW SILENCED I AM BEING!
Keith Law: I worry he’s going to end up some sort of hero to the alt-white and will end up a strong candidate in the 2024 primaries, which we’ve now seen, at least on the GOP side, are structured in a way that favors extreme candidates.

Dan: You called Mick Abel the best HS arm in last year’s draft, but he finished in your ‘just missed’ range. Is it especially difficult for a HS pitcher to make the top 100 just due to the proximity to the majors? Or was it a less than stellar HS pitcher class?
Keith Law: In The Inside Game I went through the history of high school pitchers in the draft, especially in the first round, and their lower success rate relative to other classes of players. I incorporated that into my draft rankings and am doing so as well in my pro rankings. It’s about avoiding bias in the rankings – I love Abel and think he’s a stud, but the base rate for HS pitchers just out of the draft is low.

Perry’s Relief Core: Was Jordyn Adams anywhere near your Top 100? Thanks for taking the time, Keith.
Keith Law: No. 80 runner, 80 athlete, but if you put him in the majors now it might be a 30 hit tool.

Kelsey: How diverse is the scouting world? How many women are in the industry?
Keith Law: Few women, but when I worked for the Jays I don’t believe there were any women in baseball operations jobs other than office roles. Now there are a few dozen, I think. We’re at the point where a team hiring a woman as a scout is no longer notable, and that’s great. What we need now is more GMs who come from underrepresented minority groups, and more managers too.

Uli Jon: I always mean to tell you that the Athletic comments section is not the cesspool those things tend to be, not vintage Deadspin but usually well thought out and some good interaction with writers.  Then the “Keith Law hates my team” brigade came out yesterday.  Hoo boy.
Keith Law: Yep. I didn’t even look at the comment thread yesterday, because if I want whines I’ll go to the liquor store.

Jason: Can Corbin Burnes be a Cy Young GUY?
Keith Law: Yes.

Morris: Been following you a long time, and my two favorite accusations of bias against you all time are 1) you get both “Klaw hates the Jays because he used to work for them” and “Klaw overrates the Jays because he used to work for them” and 2) “Klaw hates Lavarnway because he went to Yale.” What are your favorites?
Keith Law: I forgot about Lavarnway. The people who insist I hate the Yankees are extra-special, since I grew up a Yankee fan and my parents & sister are still Yankee fans, and my grandmother was one until she was about 98 or so. Also, anyone crying about East Coast bias really needs a pacifier.
Keith Law: My patience for these complaints declines every year. Grow up already. I do not have the capacity to hold all of these supposed biases against teams in my head. My cognitive load is high enough as it is.

JT: Are you still very much hopeful for Tirso Ornelas? Do we just have to be patient until we have some game action for him?
Keith Law: Yes.

PJ: What do you think would be the key to getting us consistent games under 3 hours?
Keith Law: Fewer commercial breaks. No commercial breaks for pitching changes. And raise the bottom of the strike zone.
Keith Law: We’re not getting to 2.5 hour games, though. That’s over.

Jason: When ranking farm systems, do you assign points (e.g., players’ FV, probability, etc.), or is it more of a feel?
Keith Law: It’s feel. Any point system would be arbitrary at its heart.

Jill: Do you own any Bitcoin? Or any crypto? Thoughts on it?
Keith Law: No. I doubt its long-term value, and it is an environmental disaster.

Uli Jon: Forgot to say…congratulations to you and your bride.  Best wishes to the new family.
Keith Law: Thank you. Approaching our one month anniversary (menoversary?) already!

Jimmy: Any good deals to sign up for The Athletic you have in your pocket?  Looking forward to signing up!
Keith Law: theathletic.com/klaw is the current promotion.

Guest: Re Austin Wells- I thought you list a prospect at a position where you think he’ll play but you list him as a catcher despite your (apparently majority view) he can’t catch. Where does he play- RF? 1B?
Keith Law: No, I list guys where they play now. Not sure where he’ll best profile.

Monte: Just to second what you said for Ben, I resisted getting help for depression/anxiety until this past year (I’m 37) for the same reasons (changing my personality, becoming a Xanax Zombie, etc.).  It’s nothing like that.  Outdated stereotypes.  All it does it let my brain quiet down and not freak out about, like, laundry.
Keith Law: Exactly. I could really get anxious about some ridiculous things. Or, frequently, nothing.

Don Gately: Plans to read A Children’s Bible? Loved the voice
Keith Law: I had not heard about this book but it looks interesting.

Tom C: The team hate accusations have been hilarious as usual. Take the Orioles fans – I looked it up, the team has made the playoffs 3 times this century. They have 6 total winning seasons. What have they been so happy about that they get mad because your assessment doesn’t match other reviews?
Keith Law: Also, the expectation that a team that has completely ignored international scouting – you know, where the best player in the NL came from, where the #1 and #3 prospects on my top 100 came from as well as the guys at 16 and 19 and 20 and 24 and 25 and 25 – for a decade, and that has zero international prospects of their own signing in their top 20, would have a top ten system is delusional.

John: Friends in Baltimore are worried the O’s are eventually going to leave, with Nashville as a potential destination. Have you heard these rumors and, if so, any sense of it actually happening?
Keith Law: I’ve never heard that. Only one team has relocated in my lifetime, and that was an extraordinary situation. MLB does not want to allow franchise relocations without an extremely high bar to clear. They just want to use the relocations as a threat.

Tom: Can singer be a good number 3? He’s got the command for it i feel like
Keith Law: He doesn’t have the command and he doesn’t have the third pitch for it.

Appa Yip Yip: Cancel culture isn’t real. Anyone who claims to have been “cancelled” is just experiencing consequences for the first time and they still get to publish self indulgent screeds on the opinion pages of the new york times. The literal opposite of having their voice taken away.
Keith Law: I agree. Bari Weiss got “cancelled,” even though her entire career started with her trying to cancel professors she didn’t like, and she was rewarded with a job at the New York Post. It’s all a giant grift, pandering to the alt-white. And it works.

G: Nick Gonzales’ profile (hitter friendly college environment, small sample strong performance in the cape,) gives me bad Kevin Newman vibes. Is there concern his bat won’t ever play enough for 2b?
Keith Law: Newman was a better runner and played shortstop better in college than Gonzales did. I would say Gonzales shows more with his present hit tool, though.

Michael: Do surprise players that make it big ever make you recalibrate how you look at things?  Being a Brewers fan, it seems like most of our high rated prospects tank, but we get gems out of left field like Brandon Woodruff (though I will admit you were earlier on him than most).
Keith Law: Yes, they do, and I appreciate you remembering I had Woodruff on a top 100 (and I’m still hanging on to Zack Brown, pecan pie, and homemade wine).

Max: Keith, you’ve mentioned “CSA” a couple of times in the chat.  What is that?
Keith Law: Community Supported Agriculture.

addoeh: If you had a wedding reception with a large group of friends/family, what songs would have made your “do not play” list?
Keith Law: Oh, we had one. Maybe I’ll publish our Spotify wedding playlist?

Brian: I havent been able to join in a while and wanted your opinion on something that came up a few months back – there was an inaccurate statistics floating around social media about suicides and a line about the Prevention Hotline. I hate made up stats as much as anyone but at what point does the message (call the Hotline) become greater than the means by which it went viral (the made up stat)?
Keith Law: The message wasn’t call the hotline, though. The message was “end the lockdowns.” And it was manipulative folderol from people whose real interest was not saving lives, but making money.

Eric: Just want to send prayers and love to Pedro Gomez’s family, friends, loved ones and anyone who knew or followed him. What a horrible loss.
Keith Law: Horrible. Absolutely unfathomable. We have lost way too many people just in our little corner of the sports world in the last twelve months.

Cryptologist: How is crypto an environmental disaster?
Keith Law: Mining bitcoin uses 121 TWh per year, almost as much electricity as the entire country of Norway. And it has no societal value at all.

Pat: In regards to international scouting “Where the best player in the NL came from” doesn’t narrow it down enough. Tatis? Soto? Acuna? That, alone, is reason enough to scout internationally, no?
Keith Law: You would think. Of the four fan bases most whiny about my org rankings, three are fans of teams – the White Sox, the Tigers, and the Orioles – who have gotten little to nothing from the international side.

The Sloth: Was there a Phish song in your wedding playlist? and why was it “Waste”?
Keith Law: “Heavy Things” and “Bouncing Around the Room.”
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week, but I will try to do another one next Thursday once the top 20s have all run. Thank you all so much for reading and subscribing and for all of your questions. The AL will run this week and the NL next. Stay safe and please wear your masks – two masks, really – as we’re finally seeing the light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel.

My ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball is now up for subscribers to the Athletic.

Keith Law: But the names you drop are secondhand. Klawchat.

addoeh: If Heston Kjerstad had a couple rock umlauts in his name, like Motörhead or Sp?n?al Tap, would he rank higher?
Keith Law: I feel like I burned my best Kjerstad joke in the draft writeup last June.

Jackie: As someone who watched Scott Rolen every day for six seasons in St. Louis, I say this:  he was not a Hall of Famer.  You can very easily tell the story of Major League Baseball in the 2000s without mentioning his name.If you have to explain to me why he deserves enshrinement, then he doesn’t.
Keith Law: I checked the rules for the Hall of Fame voting process. It turns out we do not have to explain to you why a player deserves enshrinement for him to be voted in.

Pierce: When the voting results were announced the other night, I said to myself, “Well, if Curt Schilling can keep his mouth/twitter account shut for one year, then he’s in.”  He only missed by 364 days, 23 hours, and 40 minutes.  I have to admit, a perverse part of me is saddened to miss out on his induction speech — it probably wouldn’t have been boring.
Keith Law: I don’t think we need to give any more platforms to white nationalists or insurrectionists right now.

Alex: I’m probably not the only crazy Braves fan on the internet with a Drew Waters question — nevertheless, what would he have to show you with his hit tool in order to merit a top-100 ranking? *If* he started to show you, how much time would it take for you to be convinced that he was for real?
Keith Law: He wasn’t on the top 100 last year and it’s not like we have new data or information to say he’s a different player now than he was in 2019.

Frank: Thank you for the rankings.  Always a must read.  With so much of the MLB season up in the air, what is the outlook for minor league baseball in 2021?  For development of talent alone they cant repeat what they did last year.  What should we expect to see for the minor leagues?  Oh and thanks as always for still hating my team!!!
Keith Law: I have said a few times that MLB may have to subsidize some minor-league operations this year to allow teams to play without fans or with limited attendance just so the prospects have a place to play.

Alex: It seems highly likely that some teams handled the development of talent much better than others during the pandemic especially for players who were not at the alternate site last year.  Do you think we will see that play out over the next 12-18 months and do you have any insight into which teams did more than others for their younger players?
Keith Law: We will probably see some of that this year, but i have no idea who actually handled the layoff better – it’s all just talk for now.

Jackie: Still waiting for Roger Clemens to fail one drug test, ever … but at least Bud Selig, the guy in charge during the “Steroid Era” got inducted into the Hall of Fame a few years ago.  Gotta draw the line somewhere.
Keith Law: Selig and Kuhn are embarrassing selections for the Hall, as are Bill Conlin and Bill Madden (who won the Fink Award), but they were all voted in by groups other than the BBWAA. It’s not quite equivalent. The real hypocrisy will be when writers who refused to vote for Bonds (zero failed tests) or Clemens (also zero failed tests) do vote for David Ortiz (one positive PED test in 2003).

Brian: Keith, thanks for the Top 100.  What does Leody Taveras being the only Ranger in your top 100 say about their system?  Have they just missed on too many of their recent draft picks and trade targets?
Keith Law: Jung was just outside the 100 – I’ll do a just missed column next week – but their biggest problem has been a horrendous run of pitching injuries. Whatever they were doing, and I sort of have an idea, it not only didn’t work, but it probably contributed to the blowouts of at least four of their pitching prospects.

Matt_: I have a question not related to the Top 100 prospects.  For the last few years I have noticed my interest in baseball draining away.  I’m a diehard Cubs fan, and even when the team was awful in 2012-2014 I read fangraphs every day, listened to baseball podcasts all the time including EW and your short-lived ESPN show.  Now I just don’t really engage with baseball content much.  I’d blame the general malaise surrounding the Cubs franchise the last few years, the utterly odious Ricketts family running the team, and what seems like a larger phenomenon that teams don’t really care about winning all that much in a way that makes analysis of transactions almost seem beside-the-point.  As you can imagine this offseason has been extremely demoralizing.  My reaction to the Ricketts fam selling off the team for parts has been less anger than apathy.  What do you recommend I do to reignite my interest in baseball?  Who should I be following that could help spark joy in following the sport?
Keith Law: That’s a tough question to answer without knowing more about what you personally enjoy(ed) about baseball, but I at least get the most joy from watching the best and most entertaining players doing their thing – players who aren’t just talented, but play with enthusiasm, style, panache.

Chris: I saw this question on Reddit a few weeks ago, but with your prospect rankings dropping today, now feels like the time to ask: If every pro baseball player were suddenly entered into a draft today (but their contracts moving forward would stay the same), what round would Franco get drafted? What if contracts didn’t matter?
Keith Law: Franco would probably go in the first round because you know you’re getting all of his prime years (assuming that the six years of team control still existed).

Bob Wagner: Is there a basic reason why MLB has much more labor strife than other professional sports?
Keith Law: MLB’s union is much stronger, and has done a better job representing the interests of its members, than the unions in the NFL or NHL have.

MannyKay: Did Ryan Mountcastle graduate from prospect status or do you not like his profile much?
Keith Law: Still eligible. LF only with no real history of patience or plate discipline before 2020.

Bill G: Keith – No questions, just a comment.  Excellent job as always.  It is also obvious that the listing is abnormal, in that there appears to be a higher percentage of players on the list with MLB experience.  That does contribute to some prospects being left off the top 100.  I would assume your just missed list could be a bit longer!  Thanks again for all the work you put in to create this list.
Keith Law: I have to talk to my editor about it but I had ~14 players on the just missed list right now.

Jake: Spencer Howard dropped quite a bit from last year. Your report focuses on location issues, but doesn’t mention in game velocity loss noted in other places. Do you feel that was mostly just health related? We’re there any signs of that being an issue previously in the minors?
Keith Law: The velocity stuff was a symptom of the shoulder issue that eventually shelved him. I saw him twice at the end of 2019 and he didn’t lose velocity in either of those starts.

Guest: Hi Keith, is there any reason Nick Gonzales was not ranked in your top 100 when players you ranked lower in the 2020 Draft top 50 (Hassell, Kjerstad, Detmers, Crow-Armstrong) were included?
Keith Law: Because they’re not the same list. I don’t just take the draft rankings and plug them into the pro list. I start the top 100 from scratch every year. And in this case there will be more variation from the draft ranking to the pro ones than there would be in other years, since I only saw a half-dozen draft guys before the world ended, and the industry didn’t get a lot of looks at these players either.

John Olerud: Thanks again for the chat. And congratulations to you and your family! I don’t think I’m alone when I say that the world of international signings is still somewhat confusing to me (not to mention cringe-worthy and concerning in many regards). But can you quickly remind us why some teams seem to always sign the elite prospects? And why others never seem to? Specifically, as an Ms fan (sigh) should I be “mad” that they never seem to contribute any of their budget towards signing the elite prospects (especially in recent years when they are trying to rebuild and have less budget going towards their MLB roster)?
Keith Law: That’s a philosophy – the new hard cap on international bonuses means all teams have essentially the same opportunity to sign the elite players, and some teams will want to spend all of it on one guy each year (e.g., Jasson Dominguez) while other teams say those players are so high-risk that it’s better to spread it around.
Keith Law: Also, thank you!

Tim: New to espresso making and got a good quality breville. I’ve found that even while using the same grind/volume settings merely a different type of coffee will drastically change the pressure settings. Do you know why? And where can I get some damn good beans?
Keith Law: Different beans will indeed require different grind settings and even slightly different amounts to get a perfect shot. It’s an iterative process each time I get a new bag. For beans for espresso, I love Re-Animator’s Foundation and Archetype’s Espresso.

Ben: No Adell? I realize his ML.debut didn’t go as planned, but really? Have his tools and ceiling just vanished since this time last year?
Keith Law: Not eligible. I explain the eligibility rules in the intro.

Bobby Higginson: One word to describe the depth of the Tigers farm system.
Keith Law: Top-heavy.

Rob: For the angels, would you rather have odorizzi and quintata, or bauer. I’m trying to rationalize their inaction on above average starters…again.
Keith Law: Signing two second-tier guys may make more sense for them given their current rotation and lack of depth in the upper levels.

Mark Shapiro: Was Groshans left off the list due to injury concerns? If he has a good 2021 would he be back into the top 100?
Keith Law: He’s just barely played – last game action was May of 2019, I believe.
Keith Law: Still a good prospect. Please bear in mind that omitting a prospect from my top 100 is not tantamount to saying that he sucks.

Billy: Really enjoyed the Top 100 this morning!  It seemed like more draft picks jumped right into the list this year.  Is that more about the quality of the last draft, or about you having better more up to date information for many of them?
Keith Law: Lot of graduations this year too. I actually think the number of draft picks going into the top 100 is about average. Have had as many as 15 in past years, I think.

Jon V.: What do you think the strategy is in Cleveland? They appear to be trying to walk a fine line of staying marginally competitive while building for the future.  For example, they have an abundance of prospects at 2B/SS but then get Rosario back in the Lindor deal and resign C Hernandez.
Keith Law: I think the strategy is dictated by ownership refusing to spend, so they have to play this weird game of competing while constantly planning to trade players before they leave as free agents or just get too expensive for the owner’s tastes. I do think that Rosario could move to CF there.

G: Did you have a difficult time weighing reports from instructs vs being able to actually see guys in games? Quinn Priester in particular seemed to be getting almost hyperbolic praise from scouts
Keith Law: I would say that actual games > instructs > alt site. It was just a worse process this year all around and I tried to make the best of what I had.

Mike: I assume the Dodgers end up trading Keibert, but what happens with Will Smith and Diego Cartaya when hes ready? Can either effectively play another position?
Keith Law: Got at least two full years before we come to that and a lot can change before then.
Keith Law: I don’t worry about those situations until they’re imminent. When CJ Abrams is banging on the door in San Diego, they’ll decide if Tatis stays at SS and Abrams goes to 2B/CF, the reverse, or if Abrams becomes a trade piece for another ace or a star at another position.

Steve: Keith: You seem to be higher on Jazz Chisholm more so than other outlets/rankings. Most have seemed to indicate his potential will hinge on his contact ability. What gives you optimism he will be able to do that/reach his ceiling?
Keith Law: Don’t know about other outlets but I see electric bat speed, an inexperienced hitter with an idea at the plate, and a guy still growing into his frame and I think working on coordination. I’ve seen him before and he’s not hacking, or unable to pick up spin, to think of two possible red flags I don’t see here.

John: Apologies if you’ve covered this before.  I’m just starting to grind my own coffee and use a French press.  Do you have any suggestions on how to get started in finding coffee beans locally?  How do you find a good source?
Keith Law: There are some great lists and sites online (sprudge is one), but you can also just google “third wave coffee CITYNAME” and you’ll find some good guides for any decent-sized town in the country. When you’re in one, chat up the barista – tell them what you like in coffee, that you’re using a French press, and listen to recommendations. They will probably also be able to tell you what other roasters they like in town.

Dr Bob: Congratulations on you recent marriage and felicitations to your new bride.
Keith Law: Thank you! For those who missed the news, I got married earlier this month, and wrote about in my free email newsletter.

John: Keith, thanks for the chat. Love your work. Wondering if you could give us some names of players who “just missed” the top 100 list?
Keith Law: Next week, I believe.

Ben: Did Ryan Pepiot come into consideration at all? If not, what were the reports you heard on him?
Keith Law: Not a top 100 consideration but definitely a prospect who’ll be in my Dodgers top 20.

TinCaps: What would keep Gore out of the Padres rotation this season?
Keith Law: They don’t need him right now, at least, and if he has any issues throwing strikes, which he did in 2018 when he had blisters, they’re clearly not going to rush him.

Joe Random: Will there be follow up breakdowns on individual teams/divisions?
Keith Law: In the intro to today’s rankings, I explained that top 20 lists by team would appear in early February, likely the week of Feb 8.

Mike: BlueJays questions – Simon Woods Richardson not on the list due to a higher reliever risk? Groshams drop off because of injury and low activity, do you see him with potential to be an everyday MLB 3B?
Keith Law: Significant reliever risk there. His arm is extremely late relative to his front leg landing.

Miguel: Are teams evaluating prospective catchers knowing that pitch framing eventually will have limited or no value w “robot umps”? How does that change the importance of the catcher moving forward?
Keith Law: That came up a lot the last two winters. There are certainly some catching prospects who’d see their value jump quickly if we get the automated strike zone, like Tampa’s Ronaldo Hernandez.

CP: Kumar Rocker a lock for Pirates at 1? And (I apologize in advance but this is all we have): Who are top contenders for first overall in 2022?
Keith Law: Not a lock at all; I’d bet on the field rather than Rocker. I’ll do a draft ranking towards the end of February but right now my entire focus is on the pro stuff.

Santaspirt: Serious question Keith. Do you want to start a band? It’s like impossible to be in a band and social distance. You record the guitar/vocals, then send to me to record drums. It’ll be like the Postal Service but through the internet.
Keith Law: I’m in. I even got a bass guitar for Christmas so I’m ready.

Guest: Most Braves fans want Ozuna back because he was awesome last year. However, even setting aside the DH/LF thing, his OPS+ was 175 in a short 2020, 149 in 2017. In his other 6 years, he’s averaged a 103.5 OPS+. Seems kind of crazy to assume he’s going to be above average, let alone great. Thoughts?
Keith Law: There were some differences in 2020 that I think can carry over – I’d bet on a 110-120 wRC+ the next couple of years.
Keith Law: I detailed it in my free agent writeup of him.

Jake: Could Wander Franco start on day one of this season? Should he?
Keith Law: Probably could but no reason for him to be in the majors now or for the Rays to rush him.
Keith Law: If we have the minors, let him go smash AA/AAA pitching for a month to make sure he’s good to go.

Jeremy: It seems like everyone agrees we should keep the DH in 2021 and beyond. Are the owners really willing to hurt their own game just for the extra leverage? (rhetorical)
Keith Law: The owners have limited points of leverage and this is one of them. I hate it, but thinking of it as if I were a lawyer on their side of the table, I’d say this is the right negotiating strategy.

Jay: How to you balance injury risk, development path, and speed to majors with two way prospects?  I ask because it seems like guys like McKay, Greene, and even Ohtani, could’ve contributed more WAR to their team by skipping the pitching development part entirely and focusing on the position part.
Keith Law: Disagree on Greene – he was way behind as a hitter vs as a pitcher – and not even clear that’s true of McKay, who at least needed more time as a hitter.

Jay: Of the recently collected prospects by PIT, who’s the most likely to become a star? Or did they just get a bunch of future regulars for a 78 win team 4 years down the road to repeat the process all over again?
Keith Law: Hudson Head, who just missed my top 100.

Kevin: Happy with Biden 2 weeks in (I am ecstatic)?
Keith Law: Yes. Could always ask for more, but this is a good start. He’s going to spend way more time unraveling the mess he inherited than a lot of people want to accept.

BenL: Thanks for all the hard work on the top 100.  Much appreciated, as always.  I know comps for prospects are crappy to do, but I’ll ask one anyways because you hate my team… or something… Am I wrong to hope that Dylan Carlson ends up being Miami-Christian Yelich? Can play all 3 spots, CF while younger and will age into a corner, doubles high OBP guy.
Keith Law: who could come into power in his mid- to late 20s? Sure, I’m in.

Robert: I just re-listened to a White Sox podcast you were on when they signed Luis Robert.  You took some criticism at the time for being low on him.  At the time you indicated that you heard concerns on the swing, but that he had elite foot speed and bat speed and that if everything “clicked” the White Sox could have a superstar.  That projection seems to have held up pretty well.
Keith Law: Thank you. There was some talk about Robert being the best prospect in the world when he signed, but you should automatically be skeptical when you hear hype like that on a player who’s never played pro ball and has only been scouted in workouts. Robert is a hell of an athlete but you saw last year that he has real vulnerabilities at the plate he has to address.

Marc (DC): What do you think about the future of the sport where there are 200+ FAs and less than a month before pitchers and catchers report? Also, without telling teams if there will be a universal DH, again, with less than a month to go?
Keith Law: We’re heading for labor strife. I hope it’s not an actual work stoppage, but this CBA negotiation will be the most acrimonious in 20 years.

Mntwins21: How close was Larnach to being in your top 100?
Keith Law: Not very.

Marc (DC): How many more wins do you think Bauer would mean for a team?
Keith Law: I’d say about 4. BTW, I know there was some contention about the article Ken Rosenthal wrote about Bauer’s free agency and his behavior on social media. I thought Bauer did not come off particularly well in there; he gave a statement that he’s “not a bully,” but Rosenthal gave direct evidence of Bauer bullying a college student on Twitter, and there are many other such stories out there in the open, which all says to me that Bauer isn’t taking responsibility for his own actions. The easiest thing in the world for him would have been to say he was sorry, and seeks to learn from his experiences so he doesn’t repeat them. Instead he’s acting like they never happened.

Frank: Oneil Cruz dropped out of your rankings- is any of that due to his unknown legal status or merely because there were more deserving players?
Keith Law: More deserving players. As far as I know his legal status is clear.

JeremyK: How does age factor into your prospect rankings? Is it basically a depreciation on your projected upside?
Keith Law: Yes. Arozarena being in the top 50 despite being age 26 is a reflection of just how good he was in a tiny sample, and the possibility that he hits for ++ power on a regular basis now.

Carrett Grochet: Assuming no Crochet on your rankings is because you see him as a reliever (so do I), but were you as surprised as I was to see him pumping 102 and looking super sharp in MLB last year?
Keith Law: No, not surprised – he’d hit 100 in college, at least, and the White Sox used him very gently. He hasn’t shown us an above-average secondary pitch yet and has some health issues in his history.

Tom: Is it fair to say that if anyone is withholding a vote for Schilling for a non-baseball reason is due to “character” and not “politics” – as if some belief in trickle-down economics is what the voters detest?
Keith Law: When someone says Schilling is being punished for his “political views” or for voting for Trump, don’t even engage. It’s a bad faith argument.

Appa Yip Yip: If a player struggles to catch up to velocity, is that something they can work on or is it an immutable characteristic?
Keith Law: If it’s a slow bat, it’s probably not fixable. If it’s bad timing, or a noisy approach, that you might be able to fix.

Andy: How do you think teams will approach workloads for pitching prospects this year (assuming we have a relatively complete MILB season)?
Keith Law: It’ll depend on how much those guys were able to throw at alt sites/instructs. Some guys did log 50+ innings that won’t show up on Fangraphs, but do count in terms of building up arm strength.

addoeh: I know teams are claiming the loss of gate revenues last year is impacting teams payroll this year.  But there could be something else going on.  Teams could be hoarding cash because there may not be a ’22 season.  It doesn’t fill me with a lot of hope.
Keith Law: That’s a perfectly reasonable concern.

Michael: When working with Schilling did you realize he’s this batshit crazy? It’s one thing to be “conservative” but to support an insurrection, openly racist, etc???
Keith Law: I never had any issues with Schilling while we worked together. In his last year at ESPN he began sharing offensive content on his Facebook page, including the Islamophobic and transphobic memes that led to his dismissal, but he never brought that into the office, so to speak. If he always held those views, he kept them to himself.

Chris: How would you describe the difference between linear and rotational hitting? Is there a player that comes to mind for each type?
Keith Law: There may be exceptions but pretty much any guy who hits for power has a rotational swing – rotating his hips, using his lower half, getting loft in the swing finish (for an optimal launch angle). Linear hitters often make a lot of contact but not much hard contact. Any guy you think of as a slap hitter is probably ‘linear,’ hitting mostly with his hands and not using his hips or legs.

Andy: I see Detroit, Boston, and the White Sox all trying their 1B prospects at 3B. Given there’s a very low chance any of the three stick, is this worthwhile? What about preparing for 3B defensively translates into improved 1B defense?
Keith Law: I don’t see any harm in trying it. I might even argue it would encourage those players to work on their conditioning so they stay more agile for workouts at third, even if that’s not their ultimate position.

JR: What, if anything, should the Mets have done in their vetting of Jared Porter? I highly doubt this was a one time incident from Porter, but also not sure what they could’ve done differently , or what they should do differently going forward.
Keith Law: I liked Hannah Keyser’s question – did they ever ask a woman in the industry what her opinion of Porter was? The answer was no. Maybe that should be an essential part of the interviewing process for everyone.

Andy: Which players outside of the top 25 would you say are most likely to top your list in the next year or two?
Keith Law: Orelvis Martinez, Jasson Dominguez, Robert Hassell could all make huge leaps.

KC: If Gilbert comes out this year with an above-average change, does that change his outlook to more TOR, or would it not enough to move him off MOR?
Keith Law: Hard to see him as a #1, but I could see him having a long career as a 2/3 where one day you look up and say, holy shit, Logan Gilbert has 35 WAR?

Nolan: I’m curious about Chris Paddack. If you talk to your average Padre fan, they think he should just be released, but based on the fact that he’s still in silky PJs I have to assume the front office has faith? I refuse to believe the Rays/Cubs didn’t ask for him in their trades.
Keith Law: Oh I’d hang on to him for sure.

JG: If Royce Lewis doesn’t pan out at SS and moves to CF, Twins have to trade Buxton right?
Keith Law: That could be.

DJ: Thoughts on this GameStop/Reddit situation?
Keith Law: I don’t really know enough details about it to have a worthwhile opinion, other than that short-selling has a pretty long and controversial history and I’m not sorry to see shorts get squeezed. Profiting off someone else’s misery like that isn’t ethical and isn’t necessary to the proper functioning of a marketplace.

Pat D: If there is any kind of limitation to this year’s minor league season, in the sense of limited games played at any level, is there any chance this manifests at the Major League level at some point?  Like is there some time within the next few years where there’s a clear decline in talent and/or quality of play because of missed reps?
Keith Law: I think so. Especially hitters – pitchers will probably mostly be OK, but a lot of hitters’ developments will be slowed by a second lost season.

chauncey: who do you think will be voted in the hall next year?
Keith Law: My guess is Ortiz gets in, and maybe Rolen, but that’s it, and there’s a chance nobody gets in at all.

j: I know you didn’t like Fetch The Bolt Cutters, but can you appreciate the artistic value? Or do you think it just sucks?
Keith Law: I thought it was incredibly boring. I have no idea why it was so acclaimed. “Sucks” is a strong word especially for a work of art, but I can say I don’t see the artistic value you cite.

JR: Will you be writing a report on Matz trade? If not, thoughts?
Keith Law: No because despite all the tweets about “three prospects” going to the Mets, it was a replacement-level major leaguer and two guys who weren’t on my Jays top 20.

Chris: If Rolen is a HoF player, what criteria is he meeting that Murphy and McGriff aren’t?
Keith Law: Elite defense at a skill position.

Evan: Julio Rodriguez is not a top 20 prospect. Discuss.
Keith Law: That is a statement of fact, so I’m not sure what there is to discuss.
Keith Law: He was not on my top 20.

Keith: Keith – there are now gluten free oreos.  I believe you’ve posted something about avoiding gluten before, and you’re a known oreo lover.  Will you try the gluten free ones, or are you an oreo purist?
Keith Law: I can’t get over the texture of gluten-free versions of regular cookies.

addoeh: Should players accept that the luxury tax is going to act like a hard cap and work towards getting a hard floor?
Keith Law: Or they should push back on the luxury tax.

Key Flaw: I believe you said you had an Ooni outdoor pizza oven. They seem awesome, but how much do you use it? It seems like you have to heat it up and use a lot of propane or wood pellets for just a couple pizzas, or does it turn on and heat up quickly? I want to justify purchasing to my wife one and need your help!
Keith Law: Heats quickly, would take me a year to go through a bag of pellets most likely, but cools off quickly so if you’re trying to make a lot of pizzas or roast something (which would be odd, since it’s a small oven and gets up to 800+), you would go through a lot more. A pizza cooks in 90 seconds in mine.

Rodney: Triston McKenzie is obviously a pretty unique talent and physical profile. Your analysis of his ability is awesome to read – is there anything you could expand on about any concerns that exist related to his velocity drop, or his ability to be a top-of-the-rotation starter?
Keith Law: I feel like his velocity drops were a bit overplayed – for one thing, this was such an abnormal year, and the fact that he just stayed healthy through it is a win for him, and for another, he can pitch at 90-92 and still be really, really good.
Keith Law: At some point he’s going to put on some weight.

Brodie Van Wagenen: Is there anything I can do to not fail up?
Keith Law: I had that exact thought yesterday.

John: Any quick thoughts on Jack Kochanowicz and Gunnar Henderson? Thanks in advance!
Keith Law: Both will appear in their respective team reports in two weeks. I have a lot more prospect content coming, so please be patient with the roll-out schedule.

Joe: I know it’s said every year…but I’m shocked that there are still so many Vizquel voters who don’t vote for Rolen and/or Jones. Vizquel was a great (but not quite elite) defender and was an average hitter at his absolute best. Rolen and Jones actually were elite defenders at their position and would have fringe HOF arguments even if you just looked at their hitting.
Keith Law: Baseball writers love and overrate Vizquel as much as they love and overrate Bruce Springsteen.
Keith Law: Vizquel’s defense was not that good and we know this because the data tell us so. There are otherwise intelligent writers who just won’t hear it because they think they know what they saw. Now, this probably becomes immaterial in light of the very serious allegations of domestic violence against him, but before that, I think he was on a path to get in.

Dallas: Jays signed Marcus Semien to play 2B. Keith, I don’t think the Jays think Biggio is as good as you do. Wait, hold on a second …
Keith Law: I was actually surprised they didn’t sign him for SS with Bichette going to 2B. That would be a hell of a defensive middle infield.

xxx(yyy): from a travel standpoint, where have you considered honeymooning? not asking for specific places unless you want to share but regions/countries/events?
Keith Law: We have a plan but are waiting until it’s truly safe to take a long flight somewhere.

Turner: Thank you for the rankings and the chat. I’m probably overthinking this, but when you describe a player as having good hand acceleration what are you referring to exactly?
Keith Law: That’s for hitters and I’m talking about how fast they can get the bat moving forward from their loaded position.

Will: Keith, love the chats.  Do you see Deivi Garcia as a top of the rotation SP or will he eventually be relegated to high leverage bullpen because of his frame?
Keith Law: Not a top of the rotation guy – can’t imagine him going 200+ innings and maintaining those K and BB numbers.

Mike: Due to no MiLB last year, was it harder to do your list? Especially since you couldn’t see guys who were at teams complexes, but didn’t pitch in the majors.
Keith Law: I answered that in the intro too.

Chris P: Nick Madrigal had 35 hits and only 3 of those were for extra bases (all doubles). I know this is the type of guy you said he would be, but at what average/obp would say that he needs to stay at to be a viable big leaguer? Or is the total lack of power just too strong?
Keith Law: If he really hits .340, sure, that’s valuable, although even that couldn’t get him more than a .376 OBP. But how does this guy become a star? I don’t see it, and I don’t think he hits .340 forever, especially if pitchers realize they can pitch him anywhere without worry about giving up a homer.

barry: It seemed like there were a bunch of older players on your list this year – ages 24+. Is this due to the minors not having a season last year or am I just wrong about prospect ages? Also, do you have an age cut off to be considered a prospect? Thanks.
Keith Law: You are correct. Arozarena and Puk might be the two oldest players ever to make my top 100.

Mike: Surprised to see Julio Rodriguez so low on your list (I know you pay no mind, but other publications have him higher, some have him above Kelenic) when I know you value potential a little higher than most. Is the hit tool and eye that concerning with him?
Keith Law: I don’t think there is any way to justify Julio over Kelenic. Julio has real hit tool concerns, and he’s a corner guy all the way.

Brad: I just wanted to thank you for an amazing job and wish congratulations to you on your nuptials. Your writing is enjoyed and appreciated in my household.
Keith Law: Thank you, to all of you who offered best wishes and congratulations. We couldn’t be happier.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week but I will chat again once the team reports start running, which is tentatively scheduled for 2/9. I also joined Eric Longenhagen on the Fangraphs Audio podcast, running Friday 1/29. Thank you all for the kind words and for reading. Stay safe.

Starting at 2 pm ET. My best-of-2020 board games posts are now up at Vulture, where I ranked the best by category; and Paste, where I ranked the top 15 overall. My top 100 songs of 2020 and top albums of the year will go up Monday and Tuesday.

Keith Law: It’s no place for the old. Klawchat.

KS: Assuming you’re able to attend games in 2021, what prospects are you most looking forward to seeing (both those you have previously seen and that you have not yet seen)?
Keith Law: I always skew towards players I haven’t seen, or whom I haven’t seen in a long time. But there are also guys like Mackenzie Gore, who should have debuted this past season but didn’t, or Jarren Duran, who’s made some substantial swing changes that I’d like to see in person (to see how they play against real pitching), in addition to, say, the major draft guys from 2020 I’d never seen (Max Meyer, Robert Hassell) and any international free agents who hadn’t debuted here yet.

Danielectomy: Which of the top free agents would likely best serve the Blue Jays?
Keith Law: Would any of them *not* serve the Blue Jays well? They would be better off with just about anyone from the top of my FA rankings who’s not a pure 1b/dh type.

Logan: Is the hype and the SSS of Bohm enough to label him a potential star opposite Harper?
Keith Law: Hype never made anyone a better player. I don’t think he can stay at 3b but I think the hit tool will be more than enough to make him a longtime above-average regular.

Frank: Honest opinion.  Did teams really lose money last season??  Or just not make as much as they projected??
Keith Law: I would believe that some teams actually did lose money in 2020, maybe all teams, but far less than they claim (or that gullible fink sportswriters claim on their behalf).
Keith Law: They did lose more than 1/2 a season of broadcast revenues and corporate sponsorship money, and a full season of attendance, concessions, and ancillary revenues (like parking). Their costs were also reduced, but not by as much. I’m not crying for the owners, who will still get the capital appreciation that made them buy sports teams in the first place, but it is plausible that most teams were cash negative in 2020.

Gerry: Hey KLaw!!!  The Phillies/Wheeler fiasco a couple weeks ago aside, what would the Phils realistically get from a Nola trade, instead of Wheeler?  I would think they’d get a huge haul for a top of young, top of rotation starter, on a great contract. Shouldn’t Dombrowski at least consider it?
Keith Law: No, he shouldn’t.
Keith Law: That might be the worst possible move for the team right now, given where they are.

Frank: With so many sports games being cancelled on all levels, professional thru HS, what is the expectation for scouting for the upcoming draft?  And will MLB require all players in minors and majors to get vaccine?
Keith Law: Sounds like we’ll have some sort of spring to scout, which is good since there was so little over the summer. I don’t think MLB can flat-out require that without the union’s consent – and the vaccine has to be available, not waiting for a petulant lame-duck administration to release it.

Buckner86: Why did Chris Paddock have such a rough 2020?  Is it fixable?
Keith Law: I’m going to go on a limb and say it was the 14 homers allowed in 59 innings that did it. And it was almost all on his four-seamer. He still doesn’t have an average breaking ball, and even lefties, who should have been more vulnerable with his plus-plus changeup, got to his fastball way too often.

Dan M.: Do you find that take out from fine dining establishments is justified?  I am debating getting Bardea for a birthday celebration this weekend.
Keith Law: Yes, we’ve gotten takeout from Bardea (which I think is the best restaurant in Wilmington right now) several times, and eaten once in their outdoor tent, although I’m not entirely sure that tent is “outdoor” enough. But the food is great and they do a fantastic job prepping and packaging it for takeout.

Drew: Can Tyler O’Neill get over his strikeout issues?
Keith Law: I am not a big believer in his bat. He’s always been such a dead-pull, ambush a fastball sort of hitter.

section 34: When does MLB free agency start?

Or, please remove “When” and answer the question without it, if you prefer.
Keith Law: The Mets have signed a few, including the first four-year deal of the winter. It’s been slow the last few winters even without a pandemic.

MK26: Hi Keith
Do you think It Can’t Happen Here because America is exceptional or that it just didn’t happen here this time because we are exceptionally lucky? We just learned that ~70 million citizens and a large chunk of elected officials are fine living in a dictatorship so long as their guy gets to do the dictating. Isn’t it just chance that our despot is a particularly epic level of imbecile and that his Elite Strike Force assigned to steal power ended up being a 3-person Ocean’s Eleven that ran through the casino floor shouting ‘we’re robbing the casino’ then knocked themselves unconscious in a smear of black hair dye as they smacked headfirst into the locked vault doors? I just worry what happens next time now that we know it’s actually not a very hard vault to break into.
Keith Law: I share that fear – that this particular wannabe tyrant showed more competent wannabe tyrants how it can be done.

Guest: White Sox fandom is all of a sudden down on Michael Kopech. Do you have reservations about him being a quality starter in 2021?
Keith Law: No. Who cares if the fans are down on a guy?

addoeh: Given how you’ve said you watch their games now. has your partner taught you the words to “Fly, Eagles Fly” yet?
Keith Law: Yes, and I’ve discovered you can pretty much sing them to the tune of “O Canada.”

Josh C: I think I remember you being a big fan of John Le Carre. Have you read any of the books by his son Nick Harkaway? I highly recommend both Angelmaker and Tigerman
Keith Law: I really enjoyed Le Carré’s Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and The Spy Who Came in from the Cold, but found some of his later work, like The Tailor of Panama, disappointing. Have not read any of his son’s books.

ffballmaster: Do you think Gerrit Crochet has top of the rotation potential or ends up as a high end bullpen arm?  Impressive debut but not sure how you’d rank him among some of the other draftees like Meyer and Lacy.
Keith Law: Bullpen guy. Basically a one-pitch guy in college, with control issues and trouble staying healthy. That’s a lot to fix to make him a starter.

Lorne Volat: Do you have any recommendations for games (board, etc.) for a 5 1/2 yo?
Keith Law: Yes – if you look at the links at the top of this chat I included Dragomino, a new game for ages 5+ (really, for 4+) based on Kingdomino, in both year-end roundups.
Keith Law: I also think Ticket to Ride First Journey is great, as are Friends of a Feather, Outfoxed, and Hoot Owl Hoot.

Sadtigerfan: Who do you think will be the better overall player Riley Greene or Spencer Torkelson?
Keith Law: Torkelson will get there first, but unless he ends up playing third base, I might bet on Greene as the better long-term player. He has the higher ceiling, at least, although that’s not the same thing.

Terry: Is there a big-ticket move that you like best for the Mets? Trade for Lindor/Arenado? Sign Springer? Sign the Alt-Righty? Trade for someone else?
Keith Law: Any of those, really. But if you are one of the only owners willing to spend, the best values should be found in free agency rather than trade.

JR: The Mets signing Mcann feels very much like the old Mets regime. Overpaying for a fringe backup player to fill an open position rather then getting the top dog or waiting on the market (or even a GM) to see if you could get a better option. Hopefully a blip in the road and not a sign of things to come.
Keith Law: I largely agree with this. It also is a weird bet on very tiny samples, and that seems like the sort of thing teams did 20 or 30 years ago.

Dallas: What level will the top HS picks from 2019 start at this year? I assume the top picks (Witt, Greene, Abrams, Baty, Cavaco, Carroll, etc) were part of the 60-man pools so I’m curious if that allows them to possibly start at 2A (maybe even the Majors for Witt). Thanks.
Keith Law: There is no chance Witt starts in the majors. He hasn’t played above short-season ball. I doubt any player you listed starts above high-A.

John: Happy Holidays, I hope you and yours are safe and healthy this season.  When are you estimating you’ll get a COVID vaccine, I’m hoping I get the full treatment by mid-summer but recognize that thankfully many more people need it before me?
Keith Law: I will get it as soon as I’m allowed, but I’m not in any category that would put me in the first or second tiers – not an essential worker, not old enough, no known comorbidities, not working in any settings where I’d be justified in skipping the line.

Claudio: Ciao KLaw! I get I might be biased (Braves fan) but I don’t get how Andruw is so far away from the threshold. 10 years average of 34 HRs and 103 rbi, 10 straight gold gloves while playing one of the best (if not the best) CF in history. Are his last few years enough to discourage writers to vote him in? I don’t get it.
Keith Law: RBIs don’t matter, Gold Gloves are stupid (although he is, IMO, the best defensive OF of all time), but his career was basically over at age 31 because of knee problems. I think he’s very borderline, but have voted for him because his impact on baseball in Curaçao and Aruba has been enormous. Without him, we may not have Xander Bogaerts, or Andrelton Simmons, or Ozzie Albies.

Brian: Am I going mad?  I thought you had a Twitter link to a rule 5 article on the Athletic…which was not there when I sighted in…
Keith Law: I didn’t write up anything on the rule 5 other than a ‘brief’ where I mentioned that the two best guys taken were probably Akil Baddoo and Jose Soriano, both of whom are recovering from elbow surgery.

Jason S (Brewcrew): How broken is the league? I just honestly dont understand Rob Manfred anymore. I am an accountant. To me– he’s running the league from the standpoint of a PE exec, not someone who loves baseball. I hate Roger Gooddell, but at least we know he loves the game.
Keith Law: Well, he’s not extracting money from teams like private equity folks do, at least not yet. I don’t get a lot of what Manfred does and says, though.

Beeds: vladdy looking fit! This the year he gets in the Acuna Tatis stratosphere?
Keith Law: I still think he’s going to be an offensive star, but these news stories are just early “best shape of his life!” folderol.

Kevin: What length of contract/$$ would you be comfortable giving Springer if you were Jared Porter??
Keith Law: I would give him the largest contract of anyone this winter – which is why I ranked him #1 – probably six years and something in the $30MM/year range, although the market may not support it this year.

Beeds: Fit Vladdy! Assuming he now stats to reach his Offensive potential how “good” of a defender at 3B does he need to be to be plus plus value?
Keith Law: Same question twice, sort of, but I don’t see any way he plays third base.

Patty O’Furniture: Is there any chance the Reds would be interested in moving Eugenio Suarez to a team that falls short on a trade for Kris Bryant (Braves, Nats, etc.)
Keith Law: They should, and then put Nick Senzel back on the dirt where he belongs.

That Guy in Detroit: Tuberville is a place where fantasies become conspiracies
Keith Law: His election is proof that you could run Mickey Mouse on the right party ticket in a strongly red/blue state and he’d still win.

Chuck S.: Feelings on “separating the art from the artist?” Because this new Ryan Adams album is damn good.
Keith Law: That’s a great question to which I don’t have a great answer. My personal policy has been to avoid spending money on art from artists whose behavior are so odious – I won’t pay a dime to watch anything with or by Mel Gibson, for example. Is Adams over that line? I feel like he probably is. But it’s also hard for me to forget that I loved some of his music before we knew who he really was.

Kip: Happy holidays.  When your daughter was younger how did you maintain your reading habit?  We have an infant with another on the way and it’s incredibly difficult.  I’ve tried reading a set number of pages per night but it feels like work.
Keith Law: The year she was born was my personal reading low, as in the fewest books I’ve read in any year since I started tracking how many books I read a year. By year two, I was traveling a good bit more, though, and I read a lot while I’m on the road.

Shane: Josiah Grey a #1?
Keith Law: I don’t believe so.

Kevin: So obvioudly the NL needs the DH to continue but it looks like Manfred might use it as a “bargaining chip” in the next CBA so it won’t be there in 2021.  With that in mind what should the Mets do for 2021 with Dom and Alonso.  Just hold onto both and wait for 2022?  Personally I would love for them to see what Alonso would get in a trade but I doubt they will do that.
Keith Law: I’d hold on to both – I can’t see them dealing Alonso, given his popularity and value.

Jim: Keith- big local Trenton Thunder fan here. What is the viability of the MLB draft league?
Keith Law: I don’t know what their economic model will be now – I assume from the minor league teams’ perspective, their costs are going to be pretty similar, since they weren’t paying the players’ salaries as minor league affiliates, and now the draft league players won’t be paid because they’re amateurs. How much will revenues decline with the new model? These teams certainly lose out on the annual boost when, say, Aaron Judge comes through for a couple of rehab games, and that’s probably a decent part of their annual revenues. If their average attendance in ‘regular’ games goes down as well, are they no longer profitable?
Keith Law: I don’t know. Nobody really knows, but I have my doubts that all of these dis-affiliated teams will survive.

Guest: Keith, why does it take the Cleveland organization 1-2 years to change the racist name of their baseball club to the “Cleveland Spiders?”  It should be done yesterday.
Keith Law: Yep. They have probably 90 days or so until anyone is reporting to spring training. They could get it done if this actually mattered to them.

Matt: Should Andrew Vaughn be slated to start the season in Chicago?  Pretty big hole at DH on the south side
Keith Law: No, since there’s no real reason to think he’s ready for the majors.
Keith Law: Prospects aren’t ready when you want them to be; they’re ready on their own timetables. Rushing them doesn’t change that, and there’s always some small chance that it ends up slowing their development.

Tommy: Played settlers for the first time over thanksgiving and loved it. im sure you’ve played a ton but where does it rank all time for you?
Keith Law: I just happen to have a ranking of my top 100 games right here for you.

CR: If you’re the Mets, do you prefer Bauer or Springer? I’m all in on Springer but admittedly biased because I think he’s a great guy and his work with kids who stutter hits close to home. But from a baseball standpoint, I think the Mets resources would be better spent on Springer plus two second tier starters. And a trade for Lindor of course. Thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: Position player over pitcher.

Andy: I would think Cano would be a debatable  HOF case based on #’s. I suspect that the positive tests doom him. First thoughts, if he’s done would you be voting for him?
Keith Law: He’s probably over the bar for me. I haven’t barred anyone from my ballot over positive tests, but when I had more names than slots, I prioritized guys without over guys with (e.g., Manny Ramirez was off my ballot until I had room). Also, Cano has a slightly higher career WAR than Chase Utley, but I’d put Utley higher.
Keith Law: And both Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich had more WAR than Cano and still can’t get a damn sniff.

Tyler: Game recommendation for a 5 1/2 year old:  Sleeping Queens.  There’s some math learning as well as a little strategy so it’s not too painful for the adults.  It also has gentle elements of messing with each other so it’s been a great chance to learn about sportsmanship.
Keith Law: I will check that one out, thank you.

Victoria: Have you ever read Heart of the Matter by Graham Greene?
Keith Law: Yes – I’ve read every Greene novel still in print. My favorites are still Our Man in Havana, The Power and the Glory, and The Quiet American.

Robbie: It’s Ronald Acuña Jr.s 23rd birthday today. Do you think he’ll ever fix the hole in his swing so that he can maximize his potential and actually be top of the league caliber
Keith Law: If he has a hole in his swing, what would he be like if he “fixed” it? Mike Trout?

Sedona: I’ve seen articles on how Aaron Ashby really impressed during alt site.  Is he a legit prospect?  Future rotation piece?
Keith Law: Legit prospect and possible rotation piece, yes.

Justin: How long do you think it takes for the Lindor trade market to get moving? I’ve seen opinions that he won’t get Cleveland as much as Boston got for Betts, and Betts is the better player probably? But Boston did attach Price’s contract to that deal and at most, Cleveland adding someone like Carrasco to the deal wouldn’t be the albatross  (not the right word, but best I could come up with) that Price’s deal was, right?
Keith Law: Betts is the better player, and I wonder if there was more belief Betts would consider an extension than Lindor, who has been adamant about getting to free agency (as is his collectively bargained right, I might add). But there isn’t that much difference between the two. As for when it gets going, I don’t know. Something has to happen to set a market, but what prompts that first something?

CR: Last comment from me, but I messaged in the last chat about my family suffering from covid after my wife, who is a nurse, brought it home from the hospital. We’re all recovered now, but it was a hellish three weeks. Absolutely not a joke. I hope everyone gets the vaccine and trusts the science, but if history is an indication…
Keith Law: Glad to hear you’re recovering. There are still way too many people who should know better acting like this thing doesn’t kill, even with a new report this week that the death rate for Americans 25-44 was much higher this year so far due to the pandemic.

Kevin: There seems to be a narrative going around that Bauer has overcame poor genetics to succeed via hard work. He’s like 6’1” and not exactly rail thin though, he doesn’t look like lincecum or anything. Am I missing something?
Keith Law: I have heard that narrative and don’t really understand it. He’s like 5″ taller than Stroman or Sonny Gray, both of whom had to overcome a lot more bias in the industry against short right-handers.

Sedona: Domingo German looks nasty in winter league… are the Deivi’s and Schmidt’s overtake him if all are healthy?
Keith Law: I don’t really ever need to see German in the majors again. I also never bought him as a starter.

Canadian person: Would signing Realmuto, and then trading from their catching depth to address other areas be a good plan a for the Jays?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. I know a lot of fans would be bummed to see Kirk go, and there’s a chance he ends up some kind of outlier star, but there’s a lot of risk there given his build.

Chris: thoughts on the new season of “Big Mouth?”
Keith Law: Haven’t watched yet.

Nate: Thoughts on Jo Adell and what he just did in 2020, I know super small sample size, but swing and miss has always been part of his game. What does he need to adjust to in your opinion?
Keith Law: He needed more time in AAA, and I’d put him and similar prospects in the group more likely to be hurt by all the lost at bats.

Jon Sloan: Hi from SD Keith, can’t wait to have you out next year, eat some fried bird and talk baseball
Keith Law: I was just thinking about the Crack Shack (where Jon is exec chef) the other day when I was talking to my daughter & my partner about fried chicken sandwiches … and then again because someone brought up the 2019 Winter Meetings. I don’t miss the meetings per se but damn a trip to San Diego would be nice right now (gestures at 2″ of ice and snow outside).

Noah: Do you have a favorite chicken recipe?  I’ve got two chickens I’m breaking down for the weekend (BBQ legs tonight) and need a good one for the breasts tomorrow.  Thanks, Keith!
Keith Law: Sticking with a theme … I don’t like cooking plain chicken breasts on their own, because they dry out too easily. Either I roast them on the whole bird, or I slice them thinly into cutlets and bread & fry them (season with salt, pepper, and smoked paprika; dredge in egg; then coat in panko and fry two minutes per side in olive oil).
Keith Law: That’s for your regular store-bought broiler/fryer. If you have access to really high quality chicken, though, that’s another story.

mike: I’m a big comp guy for some reason, so feel free to shoot this one down.  Does Austin Martin have the chance to become a Mookie Betts type player?  Developing power on top of a stellar hit tool…
Keith Law: I don’t do comps, really. I think Martin could be a superstar, given his athleticism, contact skills, and chance to be a plus fielder at a skill position. I don’t think he’s much like Betts.

Marc: you see Kumar Rocker as the best pitcher in the draft?
Keith Law: I do not. Most famous, yes, but not best.

Tom C: So Keith based on some of your recent tweets, do you think the Eagles take the cap hit and trade Wentz or… wait what the hell chat am I in here
Keith Law: God I hope they do. Wentz didn’t even take a snap last Sunday, yet he was sacked four times and picked off twice.

Snowy: DeSclafani looks like another good under the radar signing from Farhan. Do you think they still have work to do filling out rotation behind Gausman-Cueto-Tony Disco?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he’s ever going to be a starter for them.

xxx(yyy): any documentary recs from the last few months?
Keith Law: Transhood was great. Haven’t seen any buzz about that one.  The Donut King was above-average too even though I had some small criticisms.

xxx(yyy): is cautious excitement the right reaction to the Rangers naming Chris Young as the GM?
Keith Law: I don’t know anything about him or what his philosophy might be, so I don’t have an opinion either way. I would prefer to interview him if we’re both sitting down first, though.

Andy: Re COVID-19: Eduardo Rodriguez had heart issues. Mo Bamba (NBA player) is still recovering from his infection in June. A college basketball player collapsed on the court. These are professional athletes in their prime who are suffering non death related complications. There’s more than just dying to getting sick. Wear your masks and social distance.
Keith Law: We are pretty lucky nobody in MLB got terribly sick – and by “in MLB” I’m including non-player personnel, some of which surely did get COVID-19 during any of the outbreaks (Marlins, Cards, Dodgers). Just because we didn’t hear about it doesn’t mean it didn’t happen.

xxx(yyy): do you listen to Jazz? any favorite albums?
Keith Law: Not much, just some of the most well-known stuff – Coltrane, Miles Davis. I loved Moses Boyd’s album this year Dark Matter and enjoyed the work he did with Tori Handsley.

Noah: My butcher in Brooklyn – The Meat Hook, they’re the best – has high quality, pasture-raised chicken from small farms in upstate NY.  But appreciate the suggestion!
Keith Law: Those birds are going to taste completely different in the best possible way. Also you probably get a higher dark meat/light meat ratio. Enjoy!

Key Flaw: With the pandemic and minor league (and amateur mostly) shut down, is there a chance that this will positively affect young arms because they aren’t overused? I’m thinking fewer high school seniors and college pitchers throwing 180 Pitches might be better than missing out on a year of development?
Keith Law: Yes, I’ve speculated that and also that some pitchers who were heading towards arm trouble might be spared that by a forced year off from competitive pitching. Not just trying to find a silver lining, but I think giving a wearing-down shoulder like 18 months between pitches thrown in anger might be a good thing?

Guest: When you play board games, how important – if at all – is that you win?
Keith Law: Now, not at all, as long as I feel like the game gave everyone a chance to win.

xxx(yyy): what is your process for “finding” articles for things like the newsletter or stick to baseball? twitter discovery? RSS readers? other content aggregators?
Keith Law: Yep, all of those. My partner sends me a lot of great articles she finds, and since we work in totally different spheres she sees things I don’t.

Mike: Any chance the Rockies actually play any young players this year?  What is the point of being a draft-and-develop type organization if you won’t play players when they are ready?
Keith Law: I understand the frustration, but also would cut them a little slack in that they’ve had the odd misfortune of having prospects develop and then be blocked by established big leaguers (e.g., Macmahon, who did play some last year, was a third baseman before they moved him).

Frank: End of the year movie wrap-up, starting to see some “best of…” lists come out.  Have not see much push for it, but best film I saw this year is ANTEBELLUM.  Really thought it was directed well and Monae had a blistering performance.  I think it was dismissed due to it is basically an elaborate Twilight Zone episode.  Also saw as criticism that it suffers from GET OUT fatigue?!?!  (How many smart, african american horror movies have their been??)
Keith Law: You are literally the first person I’ve seen say a good thing about that movie. I know the spoiler, and oh my god, it sounds dumb.

Rob: What’s your preferred method to make at home pizza? Do you have any thoughts on the Ooni pizza ovens? Thank you!
Keith Law: I own an Ooni oven and it’s fantastic. Just hard to use when it’s 30 degrees (it works fine, I just don’t want to run in and out in this temperature).

BL: Speaking of the Rockies, if you’re in charge there, what are you doing?
Keith Law: As much as Rockies fans are frustrated right now, that’s the hardest GM job in baseball, in my opinion. Any exec there will have more of a challenge, even if all else were equal, than anyone else. I think that, even 28+ seasons in, no one has hit on a good formula for building a pitching staff that can last over multiple seasons. Until you crack that, you are constantly improvising, and doing so with less money than at least a few of your most important competitors. That doesn’t justify the money they’ve spent on relievers lately, though. That strategy hasn’t worked at all.

Chris: America’s Test Kitchen method for pizza is to put a pizza stone on the lower rack of your oven, crank the temperature to 500 degrees, and let it heat for an hour before cooking. It turns out perfectly crisp every time.
Keith Law: It depends on your dough, more than anything. I make pizzas that way (ATK didn’t exactly invent that) using a dough that’s higher hydration than the dough I use for the Ooni, which gets up to 800 degrees and thus cooks the pizza far faster, meaning less time for evaporation. My indoor pizzas cook in six minutes, but in the Ooni it’s about 90 seconds. Two different doughs, and different approaches to toppings too.

Sam: Does Spring Training start on time?  Are we going to have a 162 game schedule this year?
Keith Law: Reports this week seemed to indicate no to both. 130 games? With a 100 game minor league season? I’d be ecstatic.

hogan: Isn’t ‘sportsmanship’ listed as something to be considered when voting for hall of famers? How do you square that when voting for guys who got cheating with PEDs?

Also, thoughts on the Negro Leagues being included statistically with MLB?
Keith Law: Sure. Define ‘sportsmanship.’ To say nothing of the probability that more players used PEDs than just the ones who tested positive. It’s an unsolvable quagmire that I choose not to use as a binary variable in voting. For what it’s worth, I think Cano has no chance – enough voters will hold two tests against him that he’ll languish well below the 75% mark, maybe even fall off entirely. But if he’s one of the ten best guys on the ballot, I will at least consider voting for him.

JL: Re: Andruw Jones and his career being basically over at 31. He started at 19/20. It seems he’d have been better served starting his career around age 23 and fading out at 33/34 than having it start and peak when it did. His peak was fantastic and over one 10 year period I believe, only Bonds had a higher WAR.
Keith Law: Yes, his peak was fantastic, but he didn’t have the longevity of most Hall of Famers. Not all, but most.

Jason: The CBAs for the NFL, NBA, and NHL require that roughly 50% of the revenue goes to the players.  Obviously the MLBPA has always opposed a salary cap (in whatever form), and I know that you—quite rightly—don’t like the idea of artificially capping what players earn.  With that said, what percentage of revenues in 2019 would you estimate the players received?  I’m curious as to whether a similar arrangement would actually benefit the players now
Keith Law: That’s a great question to which I do not know the answer. I do think any attempt to cap players’ earnings will end up enriching the owners. You can bank on that. It might, however, redistribute the money paid to players in a way that benefits more players than it harms.
Keith Law: (I feel like there’s a socialism joke to make there but I’m too tired.)

Jim: Keith, thanks as ever for doing these chats! What do you think about the PCL withdrawing from MiLB?  Inevitable leaving a sinking ship, ensuring they’re not drawn into any lawsuit, or …?  Also, regarding the vaccine, while I have mixed feelings on making it mandatory, the MLBPA has no say in the matter since minor leaguers are infamously not part of the union and left by MLB players to twist in the wind.
Keith Law: I don’t know about the legal liability but the move was largely a paper one. MiLB is ceasing to exist as an independent entity. The MLBPA would have a say in the matter on vaccines for major leaguers.

Sedona: Corbin Burnes an ACE?
Keith Law: I’d be more comfortable calling him a very good #2.

John: are most non-elite starters fairly inconsistent year-to-year like RP or is there more consistency in 3,4,5 starters as a whole than I’m imagining?  i’m not sure that is quantifiable or not but was always curious
Keith Law: That’s probably going to depend on your definition of a #3 or #4 starter. I would guess most GMs and managers would value more consistency in those spots even if they’re giving up some ceiling.

Dave C: Keith thanks for all the chats and columns in 2020.  Was something I always enjoyed reading and learning from!
Kip: Thanks, Keith.  I’ve long enjoyed your work and your perspective.  Stay safe.
TomBruno23: No snarky questions from me, simply want to say Happy Holidays (Christmas for you, Hannukah for me, anything to anyone else out there) and thank you for all of the content you provide during the year.
Dr. Bob: No question today. Just thanks for the chats. Merry Christmas to all.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. I appreciate all of your support and readership over the years, not least during this one.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week, and I think that’ll be the last Klawchat until 2021. (I’ll try to sneak in a video chat of some sort next week, though.) Thank you all for reading and for all of your questions. Please stay safe during the holiday break, even if it means declining to see some friends or family members, and wear your masks any time you’re around folks outside of your household or pod. Have a happy holiday of your choosing.

I have two new posts for subscribers to the Athletic, one on the impact of this week’s announcements of minor league realignment and contraction, and the other on six non-tendered players who are worth another look. I also posted my ranking of the top 100 board games, updated for 2020, here on Wednesday.

Keith Law: Don’t waste your words I don’t need anything from you. Klawchat.

Ross: Biggest surprises among non-tendered players?
Keith Law: David Dahl for sure. I’m going to write a short post on 3-4 of those guys who would have otherwise made my top 40 free agents had they been non-tendered in early November.

Eric: Do you see Steve Cohen/Sandy Alderson putting the right pieces (front office, scouting & of course players) in place to be a perrenial contender?
Keith Law: Yes, but I don’t think my opinion there means anything at all. It’s based mostly on trust in Sandy’s intelligence and track record, although even he has had his mistakes.

Guest: Is it concerning that the Mets haven’t been able to find anyone for the front office hires? Or is it a combination of timing and they’re just being overly particular?
Keith Law: I do not believe for a second they’ve been unable to find anyone. Reports that everyone is turning them down are probably just bullshit.

Steven Matz: Wow,how am I making 5.2 million dollars?!
Keith Law: Good for him. Few players have worked harder to come back from injuries that could have ended a career than Matz has.

Scott of Lincolnshire: Is the idea of Kyle Schwarber greater than the results of Kyle Schwarber?  $8 mil doesn’t seem like a ton of money for .800 OPS
Keith Law: That OPS masks trouble vs LHP and doesn’t consider lack of positional or defensive value.

Guest: Do the White Sox survive La Russa?
Keith Law: Yes. They might even succeed under him. But they have ceded the chance to be better under a more capable and progressive manager.

MLB: Now that we have crushed minor league baseball, what else can we do to have fans be less interested in our game from all over the country?!
Keith Law: More commercial breaks, probably.

Ryan: If owners refuse to open their books, why do all of them crying poor all the time get taken seriously. When will we decide that these are clearly arguments being made in bad faith? If Bill DeWitt Jr. believes that “the industry isn’t very profitable” then why has he owned a team for 25 years?!
Keith Law: Any reporter who accepts these lies wholesale – like the fink Bill Madden, who got laughed off the internet last week when he printed that the Phillies lost nearly $2 billion, just like the nonsense story he printed about Mike Elias and the pension fund a few weeks earlier, yet more proof Madden’s Spink Award should be revoked – no longer deserves your attention or clicks.

Alex: If you were a GM with a limited budget (cough, Orioles, cough) with glaring holes in pitching and SS (and 3B)– who would you be talking to right now (while keeping in mind the restraints listed above)?
Keith Law: I mean, they had Iglesias, a good value at shortstop whose defense would help any pitchers they’re trying to develop, and traded him for very little.

Ed: Not a question, but looking at your Top 100 list, I can’t recommend Castles of Tuscany more.  Looking forward to your eventual review!
Keith Law: I haven’t gotten that one yet but thank you. I have mixed feelings on Feld games … he gets way too enamored of complicated scoring rules sometimes, like in Merlin.

Matt: Do you buy organic food? If so, which categories (i.e., produce, meat, etc.)?
Keith Law: Yes. Dairy and eggs first, because I think there are tangible differences (organic eggs, in my experience, have harder shells and more defined yolks, although if you have a local farm with fresh eggs you can get the same whether or not they’re organic) and I want to support antibiotic-free husbandry. I don’t think there’s a difference to the consumer between organic and conventional produce, but you may choose that for ethical reasons.

Ben (MN): I may be in the minority among other lifelong baseball fans (in my early 30s), but I would support 7 inning double-headers even in a post-pandemic league. In fact, I would support 7 innings for all games. I will always watch the Twins, and I used to watch any game that was on tv. But i now find that other MLB games, including the playoffs, are so long that I find them unwatchable if I don’t have a rooting interest. Do you think MLB would ever be willing to shorten the games?
Keith Law: Dear God I hope not. This isn’t high school baseball.

Hadley: Let’s stipulate for the sake of argument that MLB is unable to spend any more total $ on MiLB than what it’s going to spend next year.  Given that budget, are the overall changes to MiLB going to be a net positive?  Is it fair to think of as a tradeoff of better QOL for minor leaguers vs. fewer total number of jobs for players and others in MiLB?
Keith Law: Let’s see that money actually go to the remaining minor leaguers before considering that possibility. MLB has hinted at it, but it’s just that until they do something about it I am reserving judgment.

BE: I know prospect for prospect trades are rare but what did you think of Bowden’s Addell for Manning proposal? Angel’s fans hated it but as a Tiger’s fan losing Manning’s upside is scary.
Keith Law: LOLOLOLOLOL

JJ: Julian McWilliams, the Boston Globe beat writer who covers the Red Sox, voted Alex Verdugo for 5th place on his MVP ballot and Xander Bogaerts for 10th place (the only votes either man received).  Isn’t it a bad look for the BBWAA that they allow McWilliams, an employee of the John Henry owned Boston Globe, to vote for anything involving the John Henry owned Red Sox?  Maybe McWilliams saw something that every other writer (and Red Sox fan) missed in 2020, but it certainly seems like a conflict of interest.
Keith Law: MLB.com writers are now BBWAA members too, so there’s a lot of potential for those conflicts. I do think employees of team-owned publications should recuse themselves from voting. It’s the appearance of conflict that matters. Just voting for players on the team you cover isn’t unethical or uncommon – hell, Tom Gage (another Spink winner) stuffed Tigers on his ballots all the time, and nobody but me seemed to give a shit.
Keith Law: (Also, end the Spink Award. The BBWAA is going to change the award’s name, but it’s the pinnacle of self-congratulation. Just get rid of it.)

MK26: Thank you for being blunt about media both-sidesism in your Stick to Baseball posts. I think the media (outside right-wing batshit outlets) did a pretty good job calling lies lies post-election. But you rightfully point to NYT as one of the worse culprits of prioritizing balance over truth. I half-expect their World Series coverage to run an article “Rays Claim First World Series Title Without Citing Evidence, Opponents Disagree”.
Keith Law: The Times is home to some of the best journalism in the country … and some of the most regrettable stuff too, from headlines to news articles to the opinion pages. I’m glad Bennet and Weiss, both integral parts of the problem there, are gone, but Bret Stephens’ continued employment there is a bigger symptom. Climate change denial is not an opinion. It is a delusion.

Todd Boss: Do we really think that these new wood bat leagues that the short-A/rookie league teams are turning into will be successful?  You could easily argue there’s already way too many such leagues now (there’s dozens and dozens of wood bat leagues all over the country).
Keith Law: These will have MLB’s imprimatur and may push some of the less-known wood bat summer leagues into oblivion.

JohnC: Love the chats. Have you read Andrew Yang’s War on Normal People book. Good read and he makes a very compelling case for UBI. Thoughts on UBI?
Keith Law: I haven’t read it and don’t plan to. I’ve read some economic research on UBI and think it has parts worth using, but implementing it in the US is a pipe dream and I’d rather work towards goals we might achieve in our lifetime, like expanding child care and preschool options that allow more parents to work, and increasing the minimum wage.
Keith Law: Getting right-wing voters to agree to “pay people to do nothing” is a non-starter. Paying people more to work, regardless of where that money comes from, is viable, and also just generally good for people.

Arnold: I recently finished reading The Inside Game–fantastic BTW–and have a question regarding the poor odds of drafting high school pitchers early in the draft.  For the few high-drafted high school pitchers (Bum, Kershaw, etc.) who succeed in the majors, are there any commonalities that might be predictors, such as more mature bodies, less wear and tear on the arms, or the types of pitches they throw?  I assume someone has tried to study the exceptions to the rule.  I ask as the much older brother of a pretty good, but still young high school pitcher.
Keith Law: I don’t know of any common factors other than that those guys stayed healthy.

Andrew: How will the new wood bat league set up by MLB affect the Cape Cod League?
Keith Law: Probably not at all. The new league is supposed to include mostly players eligible for that year’s draft. The Cape’s strength has always been underclassmen for the following two drafts.

Todd: How far away for the Yankees are the likes of Medina and Gil?
Keith Law: Two years. Both more likely relievers than starters.

Jason S: Hi Keith, what are your thoughts on the Knebel deal? Here is my thinking– with Jimmy Nelson I understood cutting him loose because he was just not right.  With Corey, he is just 1 year removed from TJ and we all know it takes 12-24 mos to come back. Is this a harbinger of cheapness to come for the brewers? Or were they right to cut bait?
Keith Law: He had one good year, in 2017. I have no problem with the Brewers cutting bait on him.

Alec: A couple weeks ago you mentioned Abrams could stick to SS, as opposed to 2B or CF.   Where would FTJ go in that scenario?
Keith Law: Tatis Jr. is a shortstop long-term. They don’t have to both be on the same team.

Salty M’s Fan: What would it take for the Ms to get the Rays to consider moving Snell? Would Gilbert plus be enough or would it have to start with Kelenic / Jrod?
Keith Law: There’s no way I do a deal with the Mariners that doesn’t include one of those two outfielders.

Zihuatenejo: I thoroughly enjoyed your board game rankings.  What would you rank as the top 10 (or 5, or whatever, it’s your chat) most *influential* board games of all time?
Keith Law: Monopoly, Scrabble (ugh), Catan … do we count go and chess? They are board games, just unbranded.

Sean: How are you primarily scouting this season? Like, how are you deciding which prospects are rising/falling in the ranks?
Keith Law: The default option will be to leave a player’s ranking and evaluation alone in the absence of good, new information. Teams did hold instructional league, and most allowed scouts in, so I will gather information from those scouts and incorporate it. But I expect fewer changes than in any previous year, and I will probably keep the org reports much shorter rather than just re-writing the same thing for player after player.

Peter: Which teams are doing the best job of prospect development during COVID? What methods seem to have worked? Is this even something anyone has visibility on?
Keith Law: We won’t know anything on that until we have games again.

Murph: With a potential return to normalcy by summer, is there any chance that the minor league baseball schedule is shifted back a month to May-October so that there can be more games with fans in the stands? Seems like this may be possible with no longer having a 40-man September MLB roster.
Keith Law: This was the rumor a few weeks ago – a staggered spring training where minor leaguers arrive when the MLB roster leaves.

Paul: My wife and I did Thanksgiving alone this year – and it was a great opportunity for me to try my hand at cooking a turkey. I went the spatchcock route and it came out great.
Keith Law: Best and easiest way to cook a turkey. Works great for whole chickens too.

Paul: However, all the drippings in either burnt over evaporated. Do you have this issue?
Keith Law: Pour 1 cup of water into the sheet pan before you put it in the oven.

CR: Thanks for the chat, Keith. No question but just wanted to say my wife, two kids, and I are all sick with COVID at the moment and baseball discussion of any kind is good medicine right now. My wife is a nurse who got covid after working a month straight with no days off at 12-16 hours a day. Despite our best efforts, she passed it to our 9 year old then to our 11 year old then to me. We’re hanging in there but it sucks. Everyone stay home. Everyone wear masks.
Keith Law: Get well soon. And please give our gratitude to your wife. The idiocy of the multitude put her at needless risk.

Paul: As someone who lives on Staten Island the one good thing we had was the SI Yankee Stadium. Thanks MLB!
Keith Law: They never drew that well, though, did they? It was easier to get there from Jersey than from the city. I did like going there.

commish: I name you MLB commish for a year. What on-field changes (if any) would you try to push through? Does the current suffocation of strikeouts and home runs poison the game for you, or do you instead prefer to focus on how talented the players are? Obviously stronger, faster, etc.
Keith Law: Raise the bottom of the strike zone. Limit warmup pitches for any reliever coming in for a non-injury reason. Cap pitchers on each roster at 12.

That Guy in Detroit: Keith, thanks for the chat.  Does the republican party ever put the brakes on this, or is this just who they are now?
Keith Law: I reviewed the documentary The Donut King on the site this morning, and one thing that stood out to us as we watched was the compassion in the policies of President Gerald Ford (a Republican) toward refugees from Cambodia (a war we helped create, of course), which led to a large, multi-year and multi-Administration effort to help them settle and assimilate into the United States. I can not imagine the Republican Party of 2020 doing such a thing. They’ve had chances, with Syrian refugees, and have done nothing but obstruct any efforts to help them.

Dean: Keith, have you heard anything to the rumor that MLB is ultimately is working towards two levels of full season minor league ball: a Junior Circuit (A/A+) and Senior Circuit (AA/AAA) over the next 10-20 years?
Keith Law: No.

books: Murakami fan? Favorite Murakami?
Keith Law: Yes. I loved Wind-Up Bird Chronicle and Kafka on the Shore. I haven’t loved anything else by him out of at least a half-dozen other books.

Bighenz: I like springer but don’t think he’s long for Cf if at all.  As a Mets fan I think I’d prefer signing Bauer and Odorozzi and go all in on pitching and a solid lineup while sacrificing the Cf d (again). Especially if they can sign a decent enough C.   Bad plan?
Keith Law: I’d always prefer the elite position player over the elite pitcher in free agency or when the deal is long-term. And if Springer moves to RF, he’ll probably be plus there.

Kevin: How worried should we be about the Campusano weed charges?
Keith Law: I’m cynical enough to think that a pro athlete gets different treatment than a typical citizen of color would, and MLB will find a way to get him back on the field. Also, decriminalize marijuana everywhere already. The Puritans have been gone for 300 years already. (Well, most of them.)

Joe: Would you please explain the concept of “partner leagues” and how this changes my city’s Pioneer League team and fan experience?
Keith Law: Means basically nothing. They’re an independent league.

Guest: Miguel Yajure got a very small taste in the bigs this season (7 IPs). Do you think he’s an option in the last third of 2021 for the Yankees?
Keith Law: Yes.

JD: Are you finally ready to acknowledge that Joe Biden is the president-elect?
Keith Law: Don’t rush me.

addoeh: Owners cry foul because enough media members and fans like it.  Most fans know how much the best player on their favorite team makes.  But fewer fans know how much their principle owner is worth.  The net worth of the best player is in most cases not even 1/10th of the owners net worth.  Many fans have difficulty seeing the difference between a few million and a few billion.
Keith Law: And we see in every election that there are plenty of ordinary Americans below the top tax bracket who are happy to support the interests of millionaires and billionaires.

Sean: Subscribed to the athletic during the recent sale, is there some evergreen content you’ve produced there you’d plug for me to check out?
Keith Law: The most relevant piece right now is probably my ranking of the top 40 free agents, which I’ll update today or tomorrow with a companion piece on some non-tendered guys of note. Thank you for subscribing.

John: With the CBA expiring in 363 days, should we expect a work stoppage?
Keith Law: I think it will be very contentious.

Crash: If you had a choice to live in any country in the world outside of the US where would you go? Canada, Australia and New Zealand seem like popular choices.
Keith Law: Italy. I have family there, and they have the best attitude on work/life balance (work just enough to have the best possible life, and nap every day).

Chamaco: There has been a proliferation of websites that rank prospects in recent years.  While I understand you tend not to use other sites’ coverage when making your evaluations, if someone wanted to read more about prospects in addition to what is available at The Athletic, where would you direct them? Thanks for all your great work!
Keith Law: Quantity does not equal quality. I do think Eric at Fangraphs, the guys at MLB.com, and Kiley at ESPN all do great work on the pro side. Baseball America remains a must on the draft side.

Eric: Fill in the team you predict:                                   George Springer:                                                  JT Realmuto:                                                       Trevor Bauer                                                        DJ:
Keith Law: Don’t know, don’t really feel like making random guesses. I’ll evaluate them when they sign.

Roger: Will the MLB/NFL/NBA/Select NCAA Conferences (SEC, Big Ten) get the vaccine first similar to how they get daily testing?
Keith Law: It doesn’t sound like it. The tests came from many different vendors and the federal government completely abdicated any responsibility on a national testing regime. The new Administration is not going to whiff on the vaccine.

Adam: Cavan Biggio or Jake Cronenworth?
Keith Law: Cronenworth.

JP: Hey KL, what’s the best way for a piss ant like myself, evaluate prospect bat speed? I obviously do not have the eye for it. Are there certain metrics you can evaluate? Thanks in advance!
Keith Law: Not that I know of. I evaluate by watching.

TomBruno23: Ryan Tepera getting an mvp vote from spink award winner The Commish Rick Hummel when he meant to click on Trea Turner is a sign that it is time stop caring about this nonsense. At least for me it is.
Keith Law: Remember the year three voters gave Edinson Volquez ROY votes when he wasn’t eligible (by a lot)? They lost their right to vote going forward. Funny how the same doesn’t apply when a Spink winner makes a similar mistake.

scott: I thought your comment in your newsletter about Space Age Love Song being the best Flock of Seagulls song was spot on. Do you think it’s fair to say that they don’t get enough credit for it because of the perception that they are a “one hit wonder” (I Ran)?
Keith Law: I think that’s exactly it. Pretty sure “I Ran” did better on the charts at the time.

Rob: What is your favorite metal album from this year?
Keith Law: Probably Pallbearer’s Forgotten Days.

Todd: Still have faith in Clarke Schmidt, Devi Garcia and the young Yankees arms?
Keith Law: Yes. Don’t bail on Schmidt after the rough debut.

Louis: What would be a good board game for a seven year old that is not too difficult to pick up? He is starting to learn how to strategize with simpler card games. Bonus points for games with a math component.
Keith Law: Splendor.

JP: name 3 things you miss about Cambridge, MA
Keith Law: I haven’t lived in Cambridge since 1994 and it’s so different now. I do miss being able to walk to so many places from my dorm. Pinocchio’s, Bartley’s (back when I ate beef), Newbury Comics, In Your Ear, etc.

TD: Thoughts on MiLB shakeup? App league?
Keith Law: The Appy League was just not a good circuit. Bad facilities, poor attendance, close to nothing else. I also never liked the idea of sending players who just came from the D.R. or Venezuela or elsewhere in Latin America to that part of the country, where nothing would be familiar and the only people of color in the stadium would be on the field.

Dallas: Thoughts on lockdowns to prevent COVID spread? Anti-lockdown point to economic impact. Pro-lockdown point to longer term ramifications of the continued pandemic. Do the benefits outweigh the harm?
Keith Law: They clearly do. We’ve never truly locked down here, though, and the moment states lifted restrictions (often way too soon) enough people resumed their normal lives that cases surged.

Bryan: Very specific request for a gift idea, if you care to field it: 4-person board/card-games, easy to travel with, not too complicated; they played The Mind and enjoyed it (also like word games).

[not sure if you ever played Hanabi, but it fits these criteria and is an easy one to pick up and quite fun, though maybe out of print?]
Keith Law: I can’t stand Hanabi. No idea why that won the Spiel. Silver & Gold would work.

Santaspirt: I know it was a relatively minor move but not much was said about the Phillies non-tendering Cesar Hernandez. While he wasn’t a world beater, he was a capable player. Good defense at 2b and could hover around or sometimes above average at the plate. That has value but they just let him go and the Indians grabbed him, and in the shortened season, was 24th in WAR for position players. Not sure if I have a question here. Am I making too much of this move?
Keith Law: Kingery’s presence made that move more logical. Also I know several teams’ internal metrics indicated that Hernandez isn’t the plus defender public metrics say he is (or was).

clabbers: I’m curious why you don’t like Scrabble. The tournament scene is dominated by math people and problem solvers, and the game involves a lot of nuanced thinking. You’re entitled to like whatever you like, but I think at its highest levels it has a lot of appeal to smart people like yourself.
Keith Law: To play Scrabble well, you have to memorize word lists. That’s work. It’s no longer a game if I have to spend time preparing to play.

Tony: With Schwarber getting nontendered last night, I feel like that really highlights how silly it is for a fringe contender to play these service time games. As a Phillies fan, I can’t help but wonder if Bohm had been with team from Opening Day, if that would have been enough for them to make the expanded playoffs last season
Keith Law: I agree that playing service time games, especially around free agency, makes a pretty large assumption that you know 1) what a player will be in six years 2) where your team will be in the standings in six years and 3) what the economic environment will be like in six years. Maybe you don’t need to consider the odds of a pandemic, but maybe having that player for 2-3 more weeks gets you an extra win in April, or speeds his development a bit more so that he’s better in October?

Mike Trout: How do I tell family members (who have always been pro-vaccine) that the COVID vaccines are safe even though they came out fast and Big Pharma is scary?
Keith Law: I’d listen to the experts. Dr. Peter Hotez (whose book Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel’s Autism is a great read) has been very vocal already about his faith in the approvcal process.

Jason: If they don’t move Abrams or Tatis, at what point should the Padres move Abrams off SS (assuming they want to keep Tatis there)?  When he gets to AAA?  After spending some time in AAA?  On-the-job in the majors?  I remember you thought Atlanta moved Peraza off SS too early (though he didn’t end up hitting enough for it matter, anyway)
Keith Law: Not until it’s necessary. Moving a player too soon just reduces your possible options. What if Tatis gets hurt or has to move for some other reason? What if a team has a player you think you have to get, but they want Abrams as a SS? Fans thinking that you have to move a player now to fit the roster 2-3-4 years down the road are being way too optimistic.

Zach: Clearly by your blogs you’re a big Top Chef fan, can’t wait for the new season. What are some of your other favorite food/cooking tv shows?
Keith Law: Haven’t watched Top Chef in years. We did just finish this year’s season of GBBO, which I enjoyed quite a bit, although the elimination in the semifinals was rather disappointing.

Guest: Anthony Siegler has been really knicked up in his first couple pro seasons but what are the reports about his defense when he’s actually played? Is the most realistic outcome (if he stays healthy) average-ish offense and strong defense?
Keith Law: Supposed to be an above-average defender and good with pitchers, but who can say for sure when he’s barely played?

Alex: Now that you updated your top board games list, it’s time to update your list of top novels!  Just kidding…I know it’s a bunch of work to do, but I’ve also benefited a lot from your reviews and they’ve guided my reading choices the past few years.  Thanks for writing all those reviews!
Keith Law: I’ve wanted to do that for a year now but other projects always come first.

Thad bosley: Now that you are free from ESPN, any guest appearances coming up on MLB Now?  The last time when your first book came out was tremendous.
Keith Law: Funny you ask. Tomorrow, via Zoom, if we’re not pre-empted.

Tyler: Klaw – even when society return to normal, do you plan on adjusting your future social behaviors re: shaking someone’s hand, posing for pictures, etc? I’d imagine you get approached often enough that you should consider stuff like that.
Keith Law: I’ve been thinking about whether I’ll continue to wear a mask in crowds … I think I will, because if it also reduces my odds of getting the flu or transmitting it, that’s a good move for me and for those around me. (Granted, I get the flu shot every year, so the last time I got the actual flu I was over it in 36 hours.)

Justin: Last year you noted some conflict about voting for the HOF and that whether or not you vote in the future was up in the air. Where do your thoughts lie currently?
Keith Law: It was an internal conflict, and I don’t think I’ve resolved it so much as accepted that there isn’t a good solution unless I wish to stop voting, which I don’t. I am voting this year, and my ballot will not be full.

Michael: The US really isn’t the greatest country in the world. I get that might not be popular to say like “Defund the police” but from Covid deaths, to the attacks on democracy, lack of health care, lack of free education, life span, etc. shouldn’t we acknowledge a lot is f’d up about this country?
Keith Law: That’s the difference between patriotism and jingoism. I’m afraid the distinction has been blurred in recent years.

Neal: Should SS needy teams be targeting Andrelton Simmons? How do you like his value going forward the next 3-5 years?
Keith Law: I think he’ll be better in 2021 with the time off to heal. He wasn’t healthy at all in 2020.

Lou G: Please tell me this far-right obsession will keep Schilling out of the Hall of Fame.
Keith Law: I predict he gets in this year. Look at the Hall electorate. I bet there are many voters who quietly agree with his views.

JR: Could corporate America somewhat force anti-vaxxers to get the covid vaccine? Imagine if airlines, restaurants, sports stadiums, theaters, cruise ships, amusement parks, etc. all instituted policies that said you can’t come visit us/use our services if you don’t have the vaccine? Is that possible?
Keith Law: Didn’t Qantas say they’ll do so? I sure hope others do the same.

Justin: I’m a huge fan of your board game lists. How much time goes into revising them each year? Seems like it must be a lot. Thanks for all you’ve invested in it.
Keith Law: I think about them all year long, really. Any time I play something new, I think about where it might fit on the list, and I talk to my daughter and now my partner about it too. My daughter’s played a slew of games with me over the last decade and she has her own quite strong opinions on games. Sometimes she surprises me – she likes Bora Bora, a somewhat heavy point-salad game from Feld, more than I do, even though I’d say in general she likes slightly lighter games.

Paul: Just saw the Mets are talking to James McCann about a 4 year deal. Assuming money is no object for the Mets – do you like McCann for 4 years?
Keith Law: No. I do not buy the overnight change in his bat, which didn’t even last for all of 2019.

Steve: Arozarena’s upside?
Keith Law: I’m not going to anoint him a superstar just yet. I think he’s a high-variance guy whose upside is an above-average regular who hits for power with a modest to low OBP.

Tim: Do we know who qualified for Super Two status yet? Noticed the Reds non-tendered Kyle Farmer then signed him – thought he wasn’t even arb-eligible yet.
Keith Law: You can non-tender a player who isn’t arb eligible, which gets him off your 40-man, and then sign him to a minor league deal.

Heather: If we’re looking to ban Curt Schilling from the HOF because of his political views, then let’s not be half-assed about it.  Let’s grab some pitchforks, and head out to Steve Carlton’s cabin, because he’s a right winger that must be destroyed, too.  And let’s dig up Ty Cobb, and burn his bones, too, because he did things I didn’t like.
Keith Law: To be clear, nobody is trying to “ban” Schilling, and the objections to him are not based on “political views.” Mariano Rivera is an open Trump supporter with some political and religious views I find irrational, and even odious, yet I voted for him, and would vote for him again if asked.

JP: we’ve reached the level of Capitalism where a $900B ‘relief’ package can be passed without a single dollar being sent directly to taxpayers. but socialism is the problem.
Keith Law: When someone on the right says “socialism,” any reporter – or voter – in the room should demand that the person define socialism in a sentence. Socialism has a pretty clear definition, and it certainly is not how the right is using the term right now.

Jay: With regard to what you said about Scrabble, I’ve thought about chess in similar way. It’s a hard game, and the best players are very smart – but it seems like it requires a bunch of memorizing moves and responses at a certain level
Keith Law: The Queen’s Gambit did a solid job of showing that part of competitive chess. If you like that, great! Go for it. I don’t find that enjoyable at all. I have other hobbies and would rather devote time to them than to memorizing word lists or famous chess matches.

Matt: Re Climate Change. Even if it was a myth, we still need to address the fact we have a finite supply of oil and that we will run out in less than 100 years.
Keith Law: And what exactly is the downside to reducing air and water pollution? It might lower some oil companies’ stock prices … and?

Neal: Not saying we need all major free agents signed in 24-48 hours like the NBA and the NFL, but how can MLB create a more exciting signing period? Is this just the byproduct of not being in a salary cap league?
Keith Law: That’s one factor. There isn’t a good solution here that doesn’t involve screwing the players, though. An artificial deadline wouldn’t help matters. A salary cap just enriches owners at the players’ expense. Sure, I wish more players would sign already, if only so I have more to write about now before I work on prospect rankings. But I’m not interested in any answer that takes money away from the players who are the actual product.

Josh: Hi Keith, I know you have touted Metamucil in the past for really helping your stomach issues… i am thinking of trying it out, but curious how much you take. The recommended dosage per day seems like a lot.
Keith Law: I take the recommended dose. That’s what a gastroenterologist suggested to me in 1999 and I’ve done it ever since. It’s been a life-changer.

Jim: Its a lot easier to support a lockdown when you are able to do your job from home
Keith Law: You assume that nobody close to me has a job outside the home. I support a lockdown because it is justified by evidence, not because of my feelings.

Tom: Is MLB going to decide on the universal DH soon? I’d be kinda pissed if I’m a bat only FA and find out after I sign that my market could have been twice as big.
Keith Law: I don’t know, but this should be something both sides can agree on quickly – the union benefits financially, GMs mostly will prefer it, and the product on the field would be better in the end.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for reading and for your questions. Look for that non-tender writeup in the next 24 hours or so. A reminder as you all do your holiday shopping that my books The Inside Game and Smart Baseball are both out now and available at independent bookstores or via bookshop.org. Stay safe everyone and please wear your masks.