Klawchat 4/1/21.

My predictions for 2021 are now up for for The Athletic subscribers.

My second book, The Inside Game, comes out in paperback on April 6th. Next Wednesday, April 7th, I’ll be appearing in a live, virtual event with fellow author Will Leitch through Harrisburg’s Midtown Scholar bookstore. Your ticket purchase also gets you a personalized, signed copy of my book.

Keith Law: It hits like a hammer when I’m that to someone else. Klawchat.

HomerSomethingSomething: Just finished The Inside Game – great work! Jarren Duran looks like he’s made serious strides at the plate since 2019 but his routes and reads have been awful this Spring. Do you think he can stick in CF or does he end up a corner guy?
Keith Law: I do believe in the swing changes, but wouldn’t judge any fielder too much based on spring training. He’s certainly athletic and fast enough to handle CF. (I haven’t seen any of his fielding misadventures, though.)

Andy: What are the odds Bo Naylor stays at C for the Indians as he moves up the minor league ladder?
Keith Law: At this point, probably around even money, with a better chance that they move him to get his bat in the lineup more than that they move him for defensive reasons.

Todd Boss: Carter Kieboom question; he just had a very public 2021 Spring Training audition failure.  He’s only 23 … but something feels like he’s at a serious cross roads in his career right now.  Does he need a change of scenery?
Keith Law: He might. Maybe just going to AAA and playing 2b exclusively would help? That said, I was always kind of the low man on his bat. I didn’t see this potential 60 hit tool, not in his bat speed and not in his overall approach.

Andy: If Chris Rodriguez can stay healthy does he have the stuff to be a legit #2 SP down the road?
Keith Law: Yes, but he’s never stayed healthy, and they took my 1000-to-1 bet from a few weeks ago against him appearing in the majors … which I said would be a stupid move at the time. I stand by that: He’s thrown 9 innings in 3 years, nothing above A-ball. How do you manage his workload this year, on a club that wants to contend, while also setting him up to return to starting in 2022? Have they closed the door on him as a starter in the long term?

Will: Keith, what are your expectations for Pache this year? Is a 250/320/400 slash line crazy?
Keith Law: I’d expect more like a .250/.290/.440 kind of line, with a lot of HR but that low OBP.

G: I know you had Ke’Bryan Hayes as the most deserving player for ROY last year, and he’s still eligible this year as he hasn’t yet hit his Rookie eligibility requirement. So my question is: Is it possible for a player to win ROY twice?
Keith Law: It is not. Last year’s winners are ineligible this year by rule. I remain a huge Hayes fan but his lack of any voter support last year has further convinced me that there are enough voters who just don’t take voting seriously, and that someone like Hayes, who is one of the best defensive 3b in baseball right now, is at a disadvantage in awards voting because he’ll produce value in ways lazy voters just don’t recognize.

Todd Boss: Props to CWS for not playing service time games with Vaughn and naming him to opening day.  What are his chances of holding his own given limited minor league ABs?
Keith Law: I wonder if he’ll end up a high BB high K guy right now, because he was always dancing on the edge of being passive. That could be a reaction if he’s overmatched by big league pitching. I hope that’s wrong.

Andy: Could Lacy open in the Royals rotation in 2022 or is that too optimistic a timeline given the lost development time last year?
Keith Law: Very reasonable.

Josh: Is there anything in Vaughn’s athletic makeup that suggests he can play LF every day at an acceptable level?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I wouldn’t rule it out.

Andy: Does Tanajh Thomas have a future as a starter or does he profile more as a power RP?
Keith Law: Reliever.

Will: Keith, thoughts on Sean Newcomb in the bullpen? At 26, is he done as a starter?
Keith Law: Yes. Can’t see how he can improve his delivery to throw more strikes.

Eric: Overall thoughts on the Lindor extension? I think fair for both sides.
Keith Law: He would have gotten more on the open market, I think, but I can’t criticize him for taking this deal. Of the four SS headed for free agency this winter (including him), I think he might have been the best bet for a long-term deal. Better SS now than Correa or Seager, more likely to stay there, and better hitter than Story.

Andy: Manoah really opened some eyes this spring.  Is it feasible to project a late call up this year if things go well in the minors or is that too aggressive given his lack of minor league IP?
Keith Law: Reasonable, if they manage his innings to leave something in the tank for August/September.

Champdo: How good do you think Willi Castro could be at his peak?
Keith Law: Everyday player.

Andy: Why do you hate my team? Every national expert must pick my team to be the class of the league. Every player is in the best shape of their life. Every prospect is the next big thing. Clearly, you are the issue for not seeing this.
Keith Law: What never fails to surprise me is how none of the people whining about purported “bias” against their favorite teams realize that fans of every team say the same thing.

Ted: Hi Keith – providing that he stays healthy, can AJ Puk become a GUY with less velocity (93-94), but with better command? The reports from spring suggest that his velocity has gone down a bit, while he’s working on his command. Thanks.
Keith Law: I heard that directly from a scout – Alex Coffey had a great article where she used that quote from me – and I think he can still be a GUY, but he has to show he can stay healthy, which he also has not done.

Todd Boss: Seth Romero, your favorite Nats malcontent 1st round draftee, is on 40-man and did not log a single pitch in spring training despite no injury report.  What can we glean from this information as Nats fans?
Keith Law: “Undisclosed injury.” Uh-huh. Color me shocked.

Jason: Why is Andrew Cuomo still Governor of NY?
Keith Law: I’m really not sure. He should have been gone weeks ago.
Keith Law: I also don’t know if there’s a legal route to removing him right now, though.

Khalid: Is Tyler Soderstrom’s bat good enough that he can retain his value as a prospect even if he was moved off C to either 3B or LF?
Keith Law: Yes. I wrote about that in the offseason – he’s not a C, he is a prospect.

Kevin: Your thoughts on Luis Garcia. I thought I remembered that you like him.
Keith Law: The Astros’ starter, yes.

Kyle: Do you have insight on how beneficial it is to the bookstore to buy a popular book from a wealthy author? For example, Obama’s new memoir is $45 at my local store, $24 at Amazon. I like to support the local store but that’s a big difference for an already wealthy author.
Keith Law: I believe the bulk of that difference goes to the store, although I also believe that amazon buys their books from publishers at a lower rate than local stores do.

Anthony: I’m always blocked out of Meadowparty on mobile (sending this question from my laptop). Do you know if there’s any way around this so I can access your chats/movie reviews from my phone?
Keith Law: That issue should be resolved – might need to clear your cache – but it will work on Wifi. The issue was related to some site security software Hostgator told me I needed, but it turned out I didn’t need it and it caused problems with users on some mobile networks.

Jason: are you high on Garrett Mitchell?
Keith Law: He was on my top 100. I don’t know if that makes me high on him or not, but I ranked him higher than his draft position last year.

Michael: Tyler O’Neill reportedly worked on and had a great spring as far as a significantly better approach at the plate. If he can really translate that to regular season what kind of player do you think he could be?
Keith Law: I won’t buy that at all until I see it. His whole swing and approach were geared to pull the ball. That’s no small fix.

Jib: Justin Williams starting in RF for the Cardinals today. How do you like his chances to keep that spot?
Keith Law: I really hope he gets an extended shot. He can do enough of everything to be a soft regular in a corner, maybe not right now, but in time.

Hank: I noticed you tweeted that the baseball fan in you was happy that Kirk made the Jays. What players are your favourites purely as a fan, regardless of how good they might be?
Keith Law: Stroman. Roman Quinn. Dom Smith. Lindor. Javy Baez. Tatis Jr., of course. Quite a few, really – I just don’t go overboard in talking about them because I don’t want people to find bias where none exists.

Max: Keith, sell me on Drew Waters as a future star in CF?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s even a regular.

Guest: Thanks for doing these chats, sir. The indie (sic) league team I follow just signed Anfernee Grier, a former #1 pick by Arizona. His career has been a tire fire–was he seen at the time as a bad pick?
Keith Law: Yes, or at least as high-risk medium-reward. Hit well his junior spring until conference play started, and then he cratered. Never did learn to pick up breaking stuff.
Keith Law: I took too long to mute the announcers. Must still be spring training for me too.

Jason: So do the Mariners keep Kelenic down a few extra days or weeks past the service time marker to create a plausible defense to the claim he’ll make?  Players never win those arguments, but there usually isn’t an exec on tape admitting to the plan.
Keith Law: Maybe? I have a feeling we’ll see him sooner because they’re aware the league, his agent, and even their fans are watching.

wrburgess: Does Justus Sheffield show enough improvement this season to meet the potential you saw previously?
Keith Law: Not sure he’s ever going to be hitting 97 with a plus slider like I saw from him in the AFL, but I think he’ll be league-average this year.

Chris: Kinda feel like the Mets should’ve traded Dom Smith for some pitching? With no DH this year he’s gonna struggle to see the field (he’s unplayable in LF IMO)
Keith Law: I have thought that for a while, but I also think they were betting on a DH this year, and they don’t want to deal a guy who has turned out to be one of the most popular players on the team. I can’t completely fault them for either.

Your fellow citizens: What are your thoughts on folks thinking Covid is almost over?   Sad to see so many selfish people ruining what could be a strong recovery and good health for everyone!  Everyone, please still wear your damn mask!
Keith Law: It was inevitable. States opening back up too quickly has led to complacency, and that’s leading to new waves of cases. Good job, everyone.

Dave: Hi Klaw. Thanks for the chats. Enjoyed the Inside Game. Are you planning a third book? Between Casas, Downs, Duran and Jimenez who has the highest ceiling and who in your opinion is the most likely to reach their ceiling?
Keith Law: Kicking around an idea for a non-baseball non-fiction book. Jimenez has the highest ceiling, but he’s not ranked first in their system, because I don’t think he has the probability of the other guys.

Appa Yip Yip: Did you see anything different on what Manoah was doing this spring compared to when last you saw him?
Keith Law: No but the TV angle doesn’t show me everything and if he’s changed something minor I might have missed it.

JJ: If Bobby Dalbec plays 140+ games this year, can he surpass Mark Reynolds’ single season record of 223 strikeouts for the season?  I get that I’m not supposed to care about contact any more, but it’s getting ridiculous.  Boring, and ridiculous.
Keith Law: Yes, he could.

Josh: Will the owners feel even a hint of shame when they cry austerity & lock out players after a season where two shortstops were guaranteed 681 million dollars?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. They have no shame.

Kevin: Any college coaches thank you for pointing out how to get Jud Fabian out?
Keith Law: 50% strikeout rate in SEC play. His defenders on Twitter have gotten awfully quiet.

section 34: Keith, isn’t “service time manipulation” really just good business practice?
Keith Law: Yes, if your entire goal is profit maximization.

mike t: Is it possible for pitchers with relatively straight fastballs to add movement? I’m thinking about Mitch Keller in particular
Keith Law: I know teams that believe this is possible through pitch design, altering grips and seam placement. I think we’re still seeing the results of these experiments, and whether pitchers can do that without losing too much command. (I think some will. It’s good progress.)

Adam: Considering the layoff between actual games, should we be really excited by how *good* certain prospects like Bobby Witt and CJ Abrams have looked so far this Spring?
Keith Law: No. I mean, you can be excited, but don’t let it change your rational opinions of those players.

Adam: Considering the late bloom of his career, how dominant does Jacob DeGrom need to be for how long to make a serious Hall of Fame case for himself? Does one more Cy Young award get him there?
Keith Law: I think it’s going to be really hard for him. He’ll have to stay healthy well into his 30s and keep working as a starter, or his bulk numbers are going to pale next to other starters in the Hall (where the standards for SP haven’t changed enough to reflect changing usage patterns).

TomBruno23: Reminder of the time Gregg Jefferies received ROY votes in 1988 and 1989.
Keith Law: Can’t miss!

Dr. Bob: I’m not a big pomp and circumstance guy in any situation, but I make two exceptions: Opening Day and Game 1 of the World Series. Give me all the hoopla along with the game. Baseball is back, baby.
Keith Law: My excitement is a little tempered by the state of the world, but yes, it is very, very good to have baseball back.

Ben (MN): My opening day meal tradition is Kramarczuk’s Brats (sold at Target Field) with onions and saurkraut. It just makes me feel like baseball is finally here. What’s your favorite stadium/baseball meal?
Keith Law: I almost never eat at ballparks, sorry.

Jose: Your thought on Nats prospects Israel Pineda. Thanks.
Keith Law: He’s #14 on my Nationals prospect rankings.

Coach: Do you think Hoerner is going to hit?
Keith Law: I do, enough for him to be an everyday guy, but not enough to be a star.

Nick: I think you’ve read most of David Mitchell at this point. What was your favorite? I think mine is still Cloud Atlas.
Keith Law: I’ve read 5/8 and would agree, but I know people who love Black Swan Green.

Mac: Who do you think will be the third college pitcher off the board?
Keith Law: Gunnar Hoglund.

Chris: Gleyber let a reachable one get by him, time for the “he cant play short!” rants to begin.  Joking aside, what will they do with DJ signed for 6 yrs and Gio ensconsed at 3B if Glevber cant, in fact, play short, esp with the big group coming up as FA?
Keith Law: They’ll sign one of those FA and trade Gleyber, or move him to third and trade Gio. I can’t see them letting either of those guys stop them from signing a premium free agent.

TomBruno23: Watched Christian Little at all? I know Vandy has some other big names on the staff, but wondering your thoughts on a kid who in a normal world would be a senior at CBC High School in St. Louis instead of pitching mid-week for the #1 team in the country.
Keith Law: I have not, but I can’t emphasize enough what an incredibly bad idea it is for high school players to matriculate early in college and skip the draft entirely. This is coaches trying to make an end run around MLB teams, and the big losers are the players, who miss out on an opportunity for MLB teams to offer them a lot of money that they can still, if they choose, decline to accept.

Ben: New to your chats, thank you. Why do virtually all prospects with 70-80 power have a propensity to strike out so often?
Keith Law: When you swing that hard, you’re going to miss a lot.

Joe: When will the Blue Jays realize Danny Jansen isn’t that good and unleash Alejandro Kirk to his full potential?
Keith Law: Give them time. I’m sure they’re still wondering how much to buy Kirk’s bat since he had no time above A-ball before last fall.

elGuapo: What would you do with Aquino now that he’s out of options? Can he be a regular (.800+ OPS in ML and AAA)? Or is he just a high K guy the Reds seem to hate for good reason.
Keith Law: I’d waive him. He’s not an .800 OPS guy (or a 100 wRC+ guy) going forward.

Kevin: Given the short shelf life that catchers have, if you were Baltimore would you even have Adley catch another inning in the minors considering his D is already major league good?
Keith Law: They’re going to be so bad this year that I’m not sure there’s a real benefit to rushing him now. Maybe midyear? He’d be two years past his draft day anyway.

Grover: Have you given up on Willie Calhoun?
Keith Law: I was never a huge believer. He has no position and I don’t think the bat plays at DH.

Chris: It took til the 2nd batter of the season for the announcers to mention Cole’s salary.  Funny how they never mention an owner’s net worth.
Keith Law: They know who pays their salaries.

Mike: Ignoring the lost income angle, it is bad developmentally for position players to choose college over starting a professional career?
Keith Law: That will depend on the player. Some guys really do need college, or will make more money after playing at a good D1 program. Anthony Rendon wasn’t a top ten kind of player out of high school, but he might have gone 1-1 if he hadn’t hurt his shoulder his junior year at Rice.
Keith Law: Some is development, some is just seeing a guy regularly against better competition.

Kevin: Gore seems to still be having some command trouble. Any concern?
Keith Law: It was 11 innings. No.

Todd Boss: Speaking of kids who graduated early to run off to college: Nate Savino and UVA.  He was 1st round talent projected as a rising HS senior … now he’s UVA’s mid-week starter?  If he was that good … how is he unable to beat out middling upperclassmen starters who are currently leading UVA to a losing record?  Was he over-rated coming out of HS?  Has he regressed?
Keith Law: I didn’t see him on Saturday, but I don’t think he’s regressed as badly as Mike Vasil, who might have lost $2 million by telling teams not to draft him.

section 34: Keith, on “service time manipulation” — it seems to me that smart teams would do it not just to maximize profits (though that’s also a benefit), but to keep players for an extra full season. Not every team is the Dodgers or Mets and can afford to pay the market-rate salary of a superstar player. Do you disagree?
Keith Law: Yes, I do. Sending guys to the minors who don’t need to go there stops their development. It might cost you a win or more in the majors that year. And it’s always based on the assumption that you know what a player will be worth six or seven years into the future. Any such projections should have enormous error bars around them, at the least.

Nitelight62: I think a 14 year Major League career qualifies as not missing…..
Keith Law: Jefferies was supposed to be the best prospect in baseball, or close to it, and he was done as a regular at age 27, with 19 career WAR.

danaez: You seem to balance a wide variety of interests in addition to your family and professional lives. Are you just naturally good at compartmentalizing? I struggle with it and too often end up not getting much done because I’m overwhelmed/distracted.
Keith Law: I do compartmentalize, but I’m also fortunate in that I can integrate family and some of those interests – my wife is just as avid a movie fan (and Oscar completist) as I am. She and my daughter both enjoy board games and I think my stepdaughters are headed that way (I concede some possible influence in that department). My wife has also encourage to try or re-try activities I didn’t think I’d enjoy, like skiing or running. So a lot of those outside interests become family activities too.

Merrick: Hi Keith! Was fun seeing Andre Jackson and Michael Grove throw back-to-back innings recently after learning about them from your Dodgers list. Both appear to have exciting stuff. Do you think either might be a bullpen candidate in October?
Keith Law: Grove more likely. Jackson I think is further away from MLB-ready.

Michael: Cardinals are batting Goldschmidt 2nd, Arenado 3rd, Dejong 4th and Carlson 7th today. Maybe I’m wrong but the line up seems a lot better moving Carlson into the 2nd spot to give a guy who looks like he will get on base a good amount and hit with some power in front of Goldschmidt and Arenado. What do you think?
Keith Law: Probably Shildt being conservative with Carlson, who was way better in September in a very small sample. If Carlson is a good OBP guy this year, why not lead him off?

Mike: Hasnt Vasil been pretty good for UVA?  What happened to him to kill his draft stock?
Keith Law: Results are fine, stuff has not been what it was in HS.

HashtagSSS: Find any good coffee places in Charlottesville last weekend?
Keith Law: I drove down and back in one day. Moe’s BBQ has amazing collard greens, though.

Jeff: Thanks for the chats Keith. Any thoughts on moving the pitchers mound back to help the hitters a bit?
Keith Law: I don’t like the idea of changing field dimensions unless they’ve already tried changing more mutable things like the strike zone.

Andy 2: How much are the Cubs going to enjoy the last season of Kris Bryant? 6 years ago this wasn’t the plan for what they would be with his extra season.
Keith Law: Right, but they manipulated his service time as if they were sure they’d be contenders in 2021 and he’d still be a star.

Allen: Thoughts on Sonny Gray’s next few years? Can he be a #2 starter for a while? Better?
Keith Law: I’ll go with above-average starter but not an ace (top 20 or so in baseball).

devilinlaw: Who’s excited to watch the pitcher bat again in the NL?
Keith Law: Nobody!

Jay: How will the Pirates screw up the 1st pick? Take Del Castillo because he’d likely take less and they need MiLB C depth?
Keith Law: I think Leiter’s the most likely guy right now, but if they went college bat, I feel like Davis would be more likely. Taking the next-best guy can be a viable strategy if you get the right overpays later.

Jay: @devilinlaw Who’s excited to see Catchers hit? Nobody
Keith Law: In 2019, catchers hit .238/.309/.408, and pitchers hit .128/.159/.163. This is a stupid “point” and people need to stop making it, because it is stupid and annoying and wastes everyone’s time.
Keith Law: If pitchers hit like catchers, there would be no calls for DHs, and pitchers would win MVP awards all the time.

Trevor: Looked like Miami (OH)’s Bachman missed a few weeks, not sure if it was injury related or not, but then came back two starts later and struck out all 9 batters he faced. Looking forward to your draft prospect list update
Keith Law: Injury, yes, supposedly has come back fine. Top half of the first round stuff.

Guest: What are you thoughts on Amed Rosario playing CF in Cleveland and will they be able to get more production out of his tools than the Mets?
Keith Law: I’d really like to see him get a long trial there in the minors first. Don’t move a SS to CF in the majors and expect him to take to it immediately.

Jesus: Dom Smith huge year ?
Keith Law: I’ve been a believer since he was drafted. He can hit, and he has real power.

Pete: I’m excited about Alejandro Kirk. Who’s bat would you rather have for the next 5-10 years, his or Will Smith’s?
Keith Law: I would gladly take either. I feel better about a 10-year projection for Smith than for Kirk, though.

mike t: Regarding Pirates, wasn’t the problem with the previous regime more that they underdeveloped the talent they had, rather than drafting lesser players i  order to sign them for less? Either way,, the jury is still out on Cherington
Keith Law: Yes, I agree with that. They had some head-scratchers in the draft (Will Craig?), but also had some really good picks that didn’t work out as expected or are still TBD.

JR: Getting my vaccine next week. Excited to see games in person this year. #fyeahbaseball
Keith Law: I’m eligible to sign up on Tuesday, so I’m hoping that means I’ll be able to get on a plane before the end of the month. Everyone who can get vaccinated should get vaccinated, not just for yourself, but for your community.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for all of your questions. The Inside Game is out in paperback on Tuesday. Here’s hoping I can sign your copies some time this year!