Subscribers to The Athletic can see my redraft of the 2010 class as well as my recap of the first-round misses from that year.

The New York Times just named my new book, The Inside Game, one of their six recommended sports reads for this summer. You can buy my book at bookshop.org or wherever fine books are sold.

Keith Law: You were only waiting for this moment to arise. Klawchat.

addoeh: Is there any backstory to how the Cubs drafted Hayden Simpson?
Keith Law: I think this was the most common question on my 2010 redraft. The short version, from my memory, was that their scouting director, Tim Wilken – who, to his credit, has been very open with everyone about how that pick went awry – got rained out on his original plans for a game late that spring, and ended up at Southern Arkansas’ playoff game where Simpson had one of the best outings of his life, up to 95 with command and feel. With nobody they really loved for that pick, Wilken took the player he’d seen pitch so well himself. That’s a process error, of course, especially since they would almost certainly have been able to take Simpson in the second round if they absolutely wanted him.  What we will never know is if Simpson’s velocity spike that spring was just a fluke, or if he’d really gained something that never came back after he caught mono.
Keith Law: That 2010 first round was the worst for me to cover, because I could not for the life of me remember who Simpson was when he was taken, and then the Yanks took another player way off my top 100 (Culver). That seldom happens now.

TomBruno23: Are you on Goodreads? Can we be friends?
Keith Law: I’m not on Goodreads – I prefer to keep all my book content on my own site.

Andy: You need to convert your daughter to team hot fruit.
Keith Law: She loves pie, but her birthday’s a bit early for any local fruit other than strawberry, which I think is best served with shortcakes or just on its own.

Deke: Starting to think summer is going to be a pretty dramatic influencer on how the pandemic goes, or too early to say?
Keith Law: I don’t think I know nearly enough to answer that.

Kevin: In your book you discuss the high risk of drafting high school pitchers in the first round. Is there any less risk with high school lefties vs righties?
Keith Law: There wasn’t enough data to answer that question.

Michael: An article (ESPN) today stated that the best option for the Phillies in the case of a Universal DH would be Alec Bohm.  But wouldn’t a better option be Hoskins at DH and Bohm at first?
Keith Law: Absolutely. Bohm would be a better defender at 1b than Hoskins.

Michael: Hey Keith- trying to get a handle on the 20-80 rating scale.  Does it mean that a player with a 50 grade is league average?  And if a player had 50 grades across the board (eye, power, defense, etc.) would he be expected to have a WAR of 0.0?  I’m guessing not, but just trying to get a better understanding of what the numbers mean.  Thanks!
Keith Law: A 50 is major league average; a player with all 50s should be a regular, not a replacement-level player (WAR 0).

Harrisburg Hal: I appreciate the podcast that introduced me to Sagrada.  I’ve been playing the app for a few weeks now and could see buying the physical game to play with my kids who like Azul so much.  I know you don’t eat red meat any longer.  Do you miss carnitas?
Keith Law: I don’t eat beef or lamb, but I still eat pork in limited quantities. I probably have carnitas in some form 2 or 3 times a year. I should probably give up all red meat, but eating pork just occasionally – and the most enjoyable cuts at that, like pork shoulder or belly – seems to satisfy my desire for it without making me feel sick. (It seems that the metabolic disorder I share with my daughter makes red meat especially tough for us to digest.)

Chuck: This feels like the longest Superbowl pregame show ever, and I checked out a long time ago. Can we just write off sports in 2020 and come back strong in 2021? Wake me when it’s over.
Keith Law: If we do that, some aspects won’t come back. Minor league baseball is going to be crushed by a lost season, for example.

Johnny: Doctors wear N95 filtration face masks and are able to treat covid-patients directly without contracting.  There are plenty of KN95 face masks available to purchase everywhere online (both have 95% filtration) for around $1-$3.  Can’t the general public wear these KN95 face masks outside their home and open up the states?  There are many Asian countries that mandate this and have successfully opened up for business.  Why can’t we follow what other countries are doing?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to this, but I will say we can’t even get everyone to wear cloth masks to go to the grocery store without some gun-clutching loon shouting “FREEDOM!”

Mike: Of course the worst first round pick you have seen belongs to the Cubs (pre-Theo/Jed). As a Cubs fan it always felt like they always had prospects they expected big things from (e.g. Colvin, Patterson) that never panned out. I understand that teams are going to pump up their guys but it seems like it was an issue in the organization at the time. What was the cause of this? Bad scouting, bad strategy, etc.?
Keith Law: They definitely drafted more for tools than skills or performance for a long time, hitting big on a few (Javy Baez really was in that mold, but he got much better in pro ball) and whiffing on the majority (Brett Jackson!). But Colvin wasn’t even that toolsy, just as Simpson wasn’t; some picks were just the results of their unique process and I don’t want to generalize too much without knowing what led them to take those players – Colvin and Corey Patterson were taken by two different regimes and couldn’t be less similar as players.

Donny: Favorite film by the Coen Brothers? What are your thoughts overall on them?
Keith Law: If you’re asking me which one I’d most want to watch right now, that’s The Big Lebowski. I don’t know if that’s really their ‘best,’ if we’re talking critical value rather than sheer entertainment.

Mike: Hi Keith – do you plan on updating or expanding your draft rankings prior to the draft?
Keith Law: Yes, of course.

Mike: Holy crap you could have built a super team in 2010 with players not drafted in round 1
Keith Law: This happens often, but 2010 seems to have been especially bad for the first round.

John: For all of the various plans that require seemingly impossible steps/benchmarks to meet, can we really go back to having sports before there is a vaccine widely available?
Keith Law: Sports, yes. Fans in stands, probably not. And even then, we have enough people who are likely to refuse or hesitate on a COVID-19 vaccine that, barring mandatory vaccinations (which, as a result of a flood of right-wing judicial appointments in the last 40 months, ain’t likely), it may still not be safe to allow fans after a vaccine is introduced.

Johnny: Instead of giving everyone $1200, shouldn’t the gov’t prop up banks so that the banks can defer mortgages and landlords can def rent?  I feel that the gov’t continues to waste so much money while so many continue to default on loans
Keith Law: Bailing out the banks didn’t do a whole lot for Americans last time around.

Mike: No real question today.  Just a thanks for your pro-science stance and posting from a biochemist
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I think it’s an obligation for anyone with a platform, given how many anti-science people are willing to use their podiums to spread disinformation and outright falsehoods.

Perks of Being a …: Which player has more upside, Reid Detmers or Nick Gonzales? Seems pretty similar, with one inherently coming with more risk.
Keith Law: If Detmers really does end up with 70 command, it’s him. More risk because he’s a pitcher, though.

Darren: Are there ‘risers’ or ‘fallers’ in this year?  What is affecting draft position towards the top of the draft?
Keith Law: I don’t think players are rising or falling except around signability.

Frank: Is Zac Veen a similar caliber prospect compared to last year’s top HS prospect, Riley Greene? Does he have more upside due to his power potential?
Keith Law: I like Veen’s overall package of athleticism and projection better, but Greene was a better hitter at the same age.

Cashliam: Have you seen the Spiel Des Jahres nominees ? How many have you played?
Keith Law: For those who haven’t seen, the nominees for the Spiel des Jahres are My City, Nova Luna, and Pictures; while the nominees for the Kennerspiel des Jahres (connoisseur’s game of the year) are Cartographers, The Crew, and King’s Dilemma. I have The Crew but haven’t played it yet, and I haven’t played any of the others; I can tell you I have zero interest in Pictures, which isn’t my type of game at all.

Mike: A five round draft favours big market teams and those who recruit better doesn’t it?  Other than cost reduction why would some of the teams want to do this??
Keith Law: Does it? I don’t agree that it favors big market teams at all.

Howey: Seems like college pitchers are taking up more of the mid/late first round talk than most years. Is this due to the ease of scouting with limited data, a lack of chance for high school position player breakouts, or just how the talent spread in general?
Keith Law: This is an especially good college pitching year anyway, and the circumstances surrounding this year’s draft are pushing teams to go conservative anyway.

Guest: Congratulations on the NYT recommendation! Hard work pays off??
Keith Law: Thank you! I’m really thrilled that the response to The Inside Game has been so positive. I wanted this book to reach more than baseball fans, and I wouldn’t be able to do that without help from folks outside of our little bubble.

Doug: Should teams put all their top prospects (CJ Abrams for example) on their taxi squads no matter their proximity to the MLB just so they have some semblance of professional instruction?
Keith Law: I think so. I would, at least.

Cavan Biggio: In my debut last year, I had a wOBA of 403 vs fastballs, 265 vs breaking, and 211 vs changeups.  Are these splits fixable or perhaps a flaw in my approach/swing right now?
Keith Law: Also, IIRC, that wOBA on fastballs fell apart with higher velocity – wasn’t Biggio awful on above-average or better FB? There’s nothing fixable here; he wasn’t a prospect before last season and a hot September doesn’t change that.

Punk in Drublic: The 50 50 revenue split is such an awful deal for the players for so many reasons (already negotiated, they don’t get more when owners have a great revenue year, and teams that own their cable networks pay their own team below market rates to funnel profits to the cable network).  Why won’t anyone come out in newspapers, ESPN, etc and say so?  All we hear are blowhards saying players must take whatever they get told to accept.  Basically being the owners PR team.
Keith Law: I mean, that’s the entire history of the baseball media, right? It’s the #1 argument I see for the union pushing to allow more media access to players, when they typically want less. That’s your direct line to get your side of the story to journalists. Otherwise, we in the media hear far more from the management side of things.

JG: I’m a minority in my mid-50s.  Even though I’ve lived my entire life in Texas, I have never been the victim of an act of overt racism.  I sincerely thought the country had turned an important page when Obama was elected.  12 years later it feels almost hopeless.  These Trumpers aren’t going anywhere.  You can almost feel the anger that’s going to be unleashed if he loses.
Keith Law: If there’s any glimmer of hope, it’s that the population of the U.S. has been getting more diverse over time, and will continue to do so.

Bob: Keith: regarding trump, he is exhausting. But I feel like I need to read his twitter feed, listen to rallies/briefings to get the full context unedited.  Newest example is “per capita” bull shit from yesterday.  Do you still listen read his nonsense or are you too the point – the evidence is there – I don’t need to read or hear from him anymore.  Cake looked great by the way – Happy Birthday to your daughter!
Keith Law: I have never followed his accounts, since I get enough of him secondhand through other media people I follow.

Eh! Steve!: I’m depressed that we’ve managed to turn a pandemic into yet another culture war.  Is there any hope for stopping the polarization of everything?
Keith Law: Nope.
Keith Law: There is profit in polarization, and that will keep it around forever.

Joe: If minor league contraction happens will teams have the option to have short season teams outside of the complex leagues? Any word on the cap for number of complex teams?
Keith Law: My understanding was no, but I hope that changes.
Keith Law: Why shouldn’t some teams have the option to keep operating short-season clubs?

Trevor: KLaw, enjoyed your 2010 redraft article and personally root for late rounds picks like Eaton and Dickerson. I’m not disputing Simmons at 1.1, but I don’t think the GMs would redraft him 1.1 considering they themselves have locked up the next 5 guys on your list for a combined $1.1B
Keith Law: Unfair comparison, since Simmons signed a seven year extension as a 1+ player.

Tom: Do you think Austin Wells is a first round talent?
Keith Law: I do not. Second round, for sure.

Joe: Any sci-fi/fantasy book recommendations? I just read Left Hand of Darkness and really enjoyed it. Farenheight 451 is already on my list.
Keith Law: Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell. The Dispossessed. Among Others. The Fifth Season. An Unkindness of Ghosts. American Gods. To Say Nothing of the Dog.

W.E.B. DuBois: Gut feeling: do we get a 2020 season?
Keith Law: Yes, my gut feeling is they force one through.

Trevor: O/U: The 2010 draft class produces 0.5 HOFers?
Keith Law: Over.

Larry: Do you have any feel for how the UDFA portion could go? Will it just be mostly seniors and that’s it? Also, how do you anticipate players deciding where to sign? If 20k is the max they can get anywhere, would they just sign with the team they root for? I’d think that could benefit teams like Atlanta with a large, talented region where most of their fans live.
Keith Law: Senior signs and not much more, I think. I would at least advise such players to consider whether the teams trying to sign them offer them credible paths to the majors. A decent shortstop prospect might not want to sign with the Rays or Padres, given who else they have.

Mike: I’d nearly forgotten the Chad Jenkins/Deck McGuire fiascos…add in Jeff Hoffman, Jon Harris etc and the Jays record on college arms is pretty bad…isn’t that odd for “safer” type picks?
Keith Law: Yes, their process – whatever it was – didn’t seem to identify the right college pitchers, in hindsight. Jenkins is the only one who seemed like a huge reach at the time. I do think Hoffman would have fared worse today because his fastball plays down so much, but at the time it was just “tremendous athlete with big velocity.”

Pat: What’s your opinion of Kyle Harrison? You think he would have a chance of being a first rounder if the high school season played out?
Keith Law: I have never heard that about him.

Amir: Do you think that someone like Nick Loftin who’s deemed to be “safe” and has a “high floor” would be more appealing than in past drafts with the less in-game looks and performance data to assess prospects standings in the draft?
Keith Law: Not a first-rounder, but yes, I think he’ll go higher in this draft than he would have in a year with a typical spring season.

Chris: Do you think more states will allow for mail-in voting this year?  I am trepidatious about going to the polls, but will refuse to skip voting this November.  My state does not currently allow mail-in voting, and I fear that the guess-which party-run legislature and governor will nix any such proposal because it will not work in their favor.  What say you?
Keith Law: I hope so, but are there logistical issues with this? Do states have to have the infrastructure to handle thousands or even millions of mail-in ballots?
Keith Law: Delaware is allowing anyone to register as “sick” or “disabled” to vote via mail, under an emergency order this year. I do hope that this at least leads to a permanent change here where early voting is enabled.

Larry: Any rumored signability issues with HS top 150ish guys?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s always the case.

Gary: How likely is Jack Leftwich to be taken in the top five rounds?
Keith Law: Last I heard was that it’s more likely he returns to school as he wouldn’t go high enough to come out.

Ridley: So, the Senate Majority Leader said that he would no extension on the $600/week payments because people are choosing to stay home instead of work, and that his #1 priority was to insure that workers who caught COVID wouldn’t be able to sue.

Two questions: Instead “staying home instead of working” a feature and not a bug during a quarantine? And, while we sure seem to love “job creators” in this country, there’s not a lot of love for the “job doers”, is there?
Keith Law: If I were running for any federal office as a Democrat, I would run ads that just show quotes from McConnell, Graham, etc. opposing extending those payments.

Miles Roby: Have you read Empire Falls by Richard Russo? If so, do you recommend?
Keith Law: Yes, I read it in 2007 and loved it so much I went on to read everything else he’s ever written.

Gary: If most teams are leaning conservative this year, doesn’t this set up as a good time to zig and go HS upside?
Keith Law: Sort of. The players have to be there, and they have to be willing to sign.

Tom: Randomly thought about how good Corbin Martin was in the minors before TJ, think he can get healthy and be a really solid starter in 2021?
Keith Law: I do.

Robert: Could the lack of a minor league season have an impact on major league roster decisions?  For example the White Sox with Kopech and Madrigal, could there be more of a willingness to start service time clocks rather than lose a year of development?
Keith Law: There should be.
Keith Law: Any team that might contend this year should be willing to call up any prospect who could help.

Chris: Should the city of oakland evict and sue for damages against the As for not paying their rent?
Keith Law: Per Susan Slusser, the A’s invoked a clause in their contract that allows them to do this. I don’t see what recourse the city would have here.

JP: do you envision governments being able to mandate the COVID-19 vaccine in order to send you kids to public school? and if so, shouldn’t it be ALL vaccines?
Keith Law: Technically, they can do that. Four states mandate vaccines with no nonmedical exemptions already. All states have some sort of vaccine mandate for schoolchildren.

Chris: Do you expect to have a clear picture of the top 7-10 picks of the draft beforehand, or do you expect it to stay quiet and all guess work this year?
Keith Law: I think we’ll know the top 10-12 pretty well by draft day. Back of the round will probably be more speculation this year than typical.

Shawn: Hey Keith, great job always. What about Jared Kelley to the Mets at 19. Thanks
Keith Law: Highly doubt they take a prep arm at 19. I wouldn’t.

Steven B.: Do you like OSU catcher Dillon Dingler in the 1st round this year?
Keith Law: He was on my mock last week and I believe he goes in the first round.

Todd: Im really starting to think there’s no bottom to the Trump administration and that by late summer the economy could be enough that people will think he did a good job while he averts their attention from 200k dead. Please tell me Im wrong?
Keith Law: I don’t think the economy recovers that quickly. It’s going to be too hard to push people back to manufacturing facilities or other environments where they’re in proximity to other workers without creating new outbreaks.

Larry: What are you hearing on Mick Abel? I get the HS pitcher thing but man do scouts love him.
Keith Law: Best HS arm this year. Only prep pitcher on my mock last week.

Mike: If you go first round and get offered half of value, what do you do?  It’s arguable that contracts are going to go way down if fans can’t get back. I’m team fuck the owners, but if I’m a player and get offered 1M in a 2M slot it might be hard to turn it down
Keith Law: I would advise the player to turn it down. Go to JC next year if you’re a HS player.

Bighen: Simmons going 1 seems Egh.   I get it but analysts always warn us that defense ages early and often quickly.  So he may have almost no time left as an elite defender which would make the rest of his career look iffy.  I don’t think he can be rated above yelich, Harper or Machado for an exercise like that.  Sales future prospects and degrom’s age at least give pause.  But I think the simmons choice is not as “defensible“ as written.
Keith Law: Simmons isn’t an average defender or even an above-average one. He’s an 80 defender at short, like Ozzie Smith and Mark Belanger, both of whom held their value into their late 30s. Even Vizquel, who wasn’t as good a defender as Simmons is, held most of his defensive value till his career ended. I don’t think Simmons is an obvious choice, and feel like this exercise is both subjective and inherently speculative, but I do not agree with your counterargument here – the best argument against Andrelton is around his bat, not his glove, as it is offensive decline that ends the careers of elite defenders more than loss of glove.

Guest: Also I loved Smart Baseball and reading your work. Just as I joined ESPN as a PA you left. :/ I am reading you now in the Athletic!!
Keith Law: Well, thank you. I did try to hint that I might not stay at ESPN last year, but I didn’t decide for certain until late November.

Mike: Since you missed out on in game scouting are you watching film or cross checking for players you haven’t seen in person?
Keith Law: I watch video where I can, but this year I’ll rely more on calls to scouts than I typically do.

Jason Amico: What are your thoughts on how Joey Bart’s defensive ability behind the plate will translate at the big league level? I was curious if his hand injuries and setbacks last season would have any impact
Keith Law: I don’t see any reason it would hurt his defense in the long run. If he keeps getting hurt, maybe it’s a sign he can’t stay at catcher, but we aren’t at that point.

JD: Oakland has gone with high ceiling, up the middle tools players in recent 1st rounds (Beck, Murray, Davidson), are there names that fit this bill at the end of the first round this year?
Keith Law: Yes … but Beck hasn’t panned out, Murray didn’t sign, and Davidson is still a big question mark. Not sure they’d stick with that approach in a weird draft year anyway.

Mike: Do you think teams are prepared for this draft or is it a bigger crap shoot than normal?  Can’t wait to read the redraft article in 2030
Keith Law: Let’s just hope we’re all here to read it in 2030. I do think teams could draft today if they had to. There isn’t that much to discuss at this point without games to watch.

TomBruno23: I want to try OOTP 21, but I’m scared I’ll full go Universal Baseball Association and even more insane than I already am. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I have played OOTP, maybe 20 years ago (?), and I just can’t do it now because I’d get sucked into it and lose so much time.

Dr. Bob: I have always been opposed to the DH for reasons you already know. However, an article by a former sportswriter a couple of years ago detailed how no team (even in the NL) works with their pitchers to hit at any level. That’s when I was converted. Now Covid-19, of all things, might bring it to the NL.
Keith Law: Yep, I don’t really even see how you could work with pitchers enough on their hitting to make a difference. This should have happened years ago – the game will be better off for it.

Mike: How hard has it been to put together mock drafts this year? Has there still been a lack of info tying players to teams or have you been starting to hear more rumblings?
Keith Law: I had less info for last week’s mock than I would for a normal mock one month before a draft. We’ll see if that changes now that we’re close to the draft date and everyone is doing mocks so information is flowing more.

Mike Trout: Barring injury, when it’s all said and done am I the consensus GOAT?
Keith Law: There will be contrarians who argue against it, but I think that’s where we’re headed.

Regan: Braxton Garrett or Trevor Rogers, who has the higher upside?
Keith Law: I think Garrett.

Guest: We all understand Twitter is a cesspool but have you been following this hitting guru stuff? It’s pure gold.
Keith Law: I haven’t … and now I’m scared.

Mike-Y: How excited are you about Michael Bay making a movie about the pandemic?
Keith Law: Is he … is he going to just blow up the virus?

JP: what happens to Kyler Murray if he wants to play baseball sometime in the future? free agent? re-enters the draft?
Keith Law: Pretty sure he’s on Oakland’s restricted list and they’d hold his rights.

Guest: If he didn’t have TJ surgery, would Kevin Abel be a top draft pick this year?
Keith Law: A pick, yes, a top one, probably not.

Johnny: Will Plesac be an above avg starter in the bigs?
Keith Law: I think he can be.

Johnny: Shouldn’t Jacob Degrom be #2?
Keith Law: He’s a 31-year-old starter who’s already had TJ. His long-term projection isn’t great, even though in the short term there are few pitchers I’d rather have.

Ben: Favorite film of the 7Os?
Keith Law: I’d take The Sting over Chinatown and Star Wars – but really, the kids of today should defend themselves against the ’70s.
Keith Law: Oh, I finally saw Taxi Driver and Midnight Cowboy for the first time in the last week. We’ve been catching up on all-time great films one or both of us hasn’t seen.

Mark in Santa Monica: If there is a short season, are there any teams you think it helps more to get to the postseason?
Keith Law: It increases the odds of a team having a really fluky season and getting into the playoffs. For example, the White Sox were a good-not-great team for 162 games. If they play 70 games, could they get an outlier performance or two that makes them a 42-28 team that wins the division? Absolutely. More likely than a 98-64 season.

Pat: Did you ever watch The Wire? The pandemic finally gave me the the time to do so. Great show. maybe favorite of all time.
Keith Law: Yep, reviewed all five seasons here.

Sam: Favorite “I know it isn’t a good movie but I really enjoy it any way” movie?
Keith Law: I have a soft spot for Top Secret! I’ll always remember Deja Vu.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for the questions and for reading. I believe I’ll have my second mock next week, and then I’ll do two more before we actually draft. Take care & stay safe!

Starting at 1 pm ET. My first mock draft for 2020 is now up for subscribers to The Athletic. I also reviewed the deduction game The Sherlock Files: The Elementary Entries for Paste.

Keith Law: I didn’t mean to take you up all your sweet time. Klawchat.

addoeh: I know your default statement is all 1st rounders sign.  Will that still apply this year?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. Too much uncertainty on both sides. Strong possibility a team takes a player and offers him 50-60% of slot, says “take it or leave it,” and if he doesn’t sign just takes the compensatory pick next year. (I’d have a lot to say over on The Athletic if that happens.) Also, I think a lot of HS kids will just choose junior college or their original college commitments if they aren’t drafted where they expected they would be.

joshkvt: Isn’t all talk about starting sports premature until we have a national testing plan (or even pretend to have a federal response)? MLB/NBA etc. burning through 10s of thousands of tests for entertainment when sick people of less means and grocery workers can’t be tested seems a recipe for long-term resentment by rational people.
Keith Law: Testing and contact tracing. I know Delaware is moving forward with a contact tracing plan before we reopen too many places, but other states are rushing to reopen without anything of the sort. I’ve mentioned the Arizona data a few times, because I don’t know how baseball restarts if Arizona doesn’t have the pandemic under control yet – the U of A’s site has the state’s Rt at 1.18-1.23, which is nowhere near “under control.”

Nick: I recently made it to the episode of The Wire with Prezbo’s quote that you used in your book. Started watching the show since I’ve seen you praise it a couple of times, and I’ve very much enjoyed it. Also really enjoyed your book!
Keith Law: Excellent choice. It’s a big commitment but IMO worth it in the long run. Never seen a series that tackled that many important topics while also working in so much entertainment value.

Aaron C.: Wife’s been ordering weekly boxes of produce from local farmers. Any preparation recommendations with the occasional eggplant, acorn squash or bok choy in the box, Klaw?
Keith Law: Roast or grill the eggplant to scoop out the center and make baba ghanoush. Bok choy is the perfect ingredient for homemade soup with ramen or soba (you can buy instant dashi powder online for the broth). I am not a huge fan of acorn squash but you can roast it, let it drain a little as it cools, then mash it to make gnocchi.

Aaron C.: Acknowledging that pretty much EVERY celebrity encounter is mundane, do you have a memorably mundane celebrity encounter?
Keith Law: I remember seeing (but not talking to) Fred Schneider of the B-52s on a bus in lower Manhattan in 1992. Maybe 15 years ago I spotted Doug Wilson, one of the designers on Trading Spaces, in a Starbucks in Manhattan. He saw me recognize him, so I gave him the ‘hey’ head-nod and he returned the gesture. I don’t think it gets more mundane than that.

Ryan: Ok so I used to write in these that the GOP was tanking for better draft picks, but I didn’t realize it also meant their tanking involving killing thousands of people …
Keith Law: How can satire survive when one political party is openly advocating for a higher death rate to save the economy?

Dave: Hi Klaw. Just wanted to say that I’m enjoying The Inside Game. I was also wondering if you’re going to send your daughter back to school in August/September because “young people are in great shape” and since “you can be driving to school and some bad things can happen”. Also hoping you can enlighten me as to how a scientific fact can be unacceptable.
Keith Law: Those pesky scientific facts always getting in the way of poll numbers!
Keith Law: (I hope schools reopen, but I’m not an optimist, not on this subject.)

Matthew: Do you think music criticism is an important discipline and do you have any recommendations of any must-read music writers?
Keith Law: I’m not sure how to answer the first part, but no, I do not read any specific music writers as I do with the work of some movie critics.

Ben B: You’re back! No question. Just a sincere thank you for the chat. I’m sure you get trolled to the max and get so many covid questions that there are no answers to, but we appreciate you holding the chat and giving us some kind of interaction to look forward to during these hard days.
Keith Law: I’m sorry it took me so long to do one, but I felt like there wasn’t enough real baseball to talk about – at least now with my mock draft, and a scheduled draft date, we can get back to that amongst your various board game, food, and book questions.

Andy: Any chance Veen or Hancock make it to the Rockies at 9?
Keith Law: Right now, I would say no, zero chance.

Guest: What impact do you think the draft changes will have on 2021, 2022 and 2023 high school graduates?
Keith Law: I think 2021 is significantly altered, because many players from this year’s draft will try again next year (college players returning as seniors/fourth-year juniors, HS kids who try junior college). Then there will be a smaller ripple effect into 2022, and so on. It’s beyond those players’ control, however, so it’s best to just focus on what they can control – their performance, skills, conditioning – and let the draft fall where it may.

JR: I’m sure everyone will ask this…but your current best guess, do we get MLB this year?
Keith Law: I believe the various sides will push something through – there is too much internal and external pressure to make a season happen – but that it will likely happen before the public health situation is sufficiently stable, and there will be a high risk of a shutdown to the resumed season.

Mike: You had the Red Sox going safe in the 1st round with Chris McMahon – do you expect Boston to try to save a little bit of $ at 1-17 to use later given the lack of a 2nd rounder?
Keith Law: No, I think they’ll be one of many teams staying college/conservative because of the way this spring unfolded. Not a permanent change in philosophy but a reaction to this year’s unusual events.

Leo: Would you say Austin Wells is the best college bat in the class after Martin, Gonzales, Kjerstad? Which would be the best comp for him and why he’s not getting the buzz he should?
Keith Law: I don’t think he is the next-best college bat; he’s not getting more buzz because teams don’t think there’s any chance he can catch.

KirkGibsonfan: I think your mock was what you think will happen. If you ran the Tigers – would you take Torkelson or Martin? As a Tiger fan – should I be disappointed that the Tigers take a right handed hitting 1B at 1?
Keith Law: If Martin had come out this spring with the same arm he showed last year, he’d be the easy 1-1 for me. He had some throwing trouble in the first few weekends, and nobody knows (as far as I know) if it was a blip or something serious. I remember Anthony Rendon dealing with a sore shoulder his junior year that affected his swing, but it turned out to be nothing and he should have gone 1 or 2 in that draft. Maybe this is the same?

Tony: With no baseball, I’ve been doing a lot of looking back. As a Hall of Fame voter, how much value do you place on peak vs longevity? For example, if Cole Hamels ends up with 70 WAR and 3,000 strikeouts, is he a Hall of Famer, even though he never had a noticeable peak, just a lot of 5ish WAR seasons?
Keith Law: My gut reaction is ‘no,’ because I want stars in the Hall, not just the good-for-a-long-time types like that or Buehrle. No disrespect to such players, but the plaques should go to the very best.

Aaron C.: Nothing but respect for MY president *checks notes* Blake Snell?!
Keith Law: Indeed. Slapdicks represent!

Peteprz: Think a team in the teens taking JT Ginn would be reaching? How high is the chance of that happening?
Keith Law: I think he’s someone’s second pick. Perfect candidate for that.

Guest: Just finished Smart Baseball (fascinating!), which spurred me on to read Moneyball (almost done!). What should I read next?
Keith Law: Russell Carleton’s The Shift.

Karen: Any new news with MILB/MLB Contraction plan?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything at all since the column I wrote about a month ago. Don’t think the two sides have had formal talks.

Mike: What’s the major factor on Mick Abel falling to #23? Is it the lack of data points from this spring, his price tag, or just general riskiness of HS RHP?
Keith Law: Not so much “falling” as representative of the high risk of HS pitching and the desire to play it safer this year with players we know better. I think Abel is the one definite HS pitcher to go in the first. Kelley might. Bitsko seems more likely to be someone’s second pick too.

Kevin w: i have friends for over 25+ years I’m on the verge of dropping due to continued trump/gop support. Have you had to make this kind of decision in last 4 years?
Keith Law: Not close friends, but I’ve certainly drifted away from some people for their support not just of the man or the party, but of specific policies that I think rely on racist or other bigoted beliefs.

Condor: Dr. Bright appears to be damaging the administration today. Will anything be done?
Keith Law: LOL of course not.

Jeff: Could a team drafting in range of picks 5-10 in the first round, get the player they rank 1-1 by offering 95% of their full draft $ to this one player, signing ncaa seniors for minimum with their picks in rounds 2-5?
Keith Law: That’s the Mike Ditka/Ricky Williams draft strategy, right? I doubt anyone would dare try that this year.
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s illegal, though.

Zach: I saw today that Republicans trust Trump by more than 20 points over Fauci. Not even a bungled pandemic will shake the Trumpers from their cult loyalty. I’m at a loss for how we go forward as a country when intelligence and expertise is so proudly ignored by half the country.
Keith Law: Many people have warned us for years about this rising tide of anti-intellectualism – The Cult of the Amateur, The Death of Expertise, The Age of American Unreason have all tackled this subject in the last 12 years – and I am convinced nothing will work on that subset of the population. They’re simply lost to reason.

Jeff: Who blinks on this revenue split – owners or players?
Keith Law: Owners. I don’t think the negotiated agreement from March even allows owners to revisit this.

Jordan: I’m trying my best to be a good citizen and follow rules, etc., but it’s hard when we have no national plan + I feel like the goalposts keep moving. At first it was “two weeks to flatten the curve” then it was “stay home longer to crush the curve” and now it feels like it’s “stay home until we get a vaccine/treatment” at some point, don’t we have to move into an assumption of risk period – especially now that hospitals aren’t being overrun?
Keith Law: I don’t know you, or your medical status, but it sounds like you’re not the one assuming the risk. Do you want tens of thousands of Americans, most of whom will be high-risk people like the elderly or the immune compromise but some of whom will be otherwise healthy children and young adults, to die so you can go get your hair cut? The goalposts aren’t just moving arbitrarily, but as we learn more about how contagious SARS-CoV-2 is, how it spreads, and how severe restrictions on movement have to be to keep the Rt under 1, some states and countries have tightened their policies to adapt. Dogma does not change in response to new evidence. Science does.

J: Do you have a favourite baseball book? I just finished Prophet of the Sandlots and I found the story interesting (though not so much the author as the subject)
Keith Law: Lords of the Realm.

Jake: Although I think it’s been true for a few years now, it struck me reading through your team lists that you are the only public prospect analyst who does not use some kind of unifying grade. BA, Pipeline, FG, BP and now ESPN with McDaniel’s Top 100 – all publish a grade aligned to the 20-80 scale to help make cross list comparisons easier for non-top 100 prospects. Do you think you might add something like that to your team lists? If not, what’s the reason you choose not to? Thanks.
Keith Law: I will not. They’re not useful, as they fail to convey much relevant information on a player, from the details of how the player is likely to get to that value to the often-wide variance expected around those numbers.

Freddie P: What are your thoughts on Biden/his shortcomings and the trivialization of rape allegations? Personally, I’m leaning towards a 3rd party vote (in a state that Biden will win without issue), as terrible as Trump is.
Keith Law: Biden might not have been in the top 10 for me among candidates in the original Democratic field, but I said from the start I’d vote for any actual Democrat to defeat Trump, and that’s still true, despite Biden’s shortcomings, the possibility that these allegations are true, and some of my policy disagreements with Biden.

Colin: What do you think the players will resist most in the latest offer from the owners? Safety issues? Money? Other?
Keith Law: It’s all safety. Testing, medical protocols, etc. There was no revenue proposal – and, whoa, no dates – this week because, I believe, owners can’t change what they already agreed to do.

Kip: At some point you mentioned writing a paper in college about the use of light in 1984 and Brave New World.  Is that available to read anywhere?  Also, finally starting The Master and Margarita and really looking forward to it.  Your new book will follow.  Thanks for all the great content.
Keith Law: That paper was in high school, and I’m afraid it’s long gone. My mom gave me a bunch of stuff she’d kept from my school years and it wasn’t in there. My college essays were, though!

Ray: Noticed you reviewed The Warmth of Other Suns and thought I’d mention, Isabel Wilkerson announced a new book coming out this summer. Keith Law: Ooh, that’ll be a must read.

Zach: Were there any high school showcases occurring during shutdown, or will teams have to draft solely on junior year performance? Think that will tilt preference towards college kids?
Keith Law: Nothing. MLB forbade scouts from even going to meet with players.

Brian: I have a baseball question but first I would like to say I understand how the dark ages happened. Seeing how many people even today just blatantly ignoring science and believing the crap being spewed by people “in charge” leaves me dumbfounded. Anyway, you have the A’s drafting a catcher at 26, is that because you think they really like him or on your board he was the best player available?
Keith Law: Down in the 20s I went with BPA and team philosophies. I have since heard, however, that Dingler is likely to go higher than 26.

Dr. Bob: Does fewer rounds mean more unsigned players? Don’t teams still need players? Or is it that they won’t pay as much to undrafted players?
Keith Law: No short-season baseball this year (or maybe ever) means teams need ~30 fewer new players this year.

Guest: How impressive is it that Jordan hit .202 and a .289 OBP in AA at 31 with 14 years away from Baseball?
Keith Law: In a vacuum, it sounds impressive. I don’t know what it actually looked like.

Mike: What is going to happen to minor leaguers if there is no season? How do you choose who to protect in a rule 5 draft.  It’s going to be chaos
Keith Law: Yep. And think of all the lost development time.

Greg: Does Atlanta stay college/conservative? Seems like that’s the route Anthopoulos and Brown went last year in the early rounds.
Keith Law: I heard yesterday they were one of the most likely teams to go all high school.

Chris: With Jerry dipoto being on the record for wanting “up the middle talent” at 6, why do you think he’d pass on Gonzales?
Keith Law: Teams were a bit scared off by how he looked vs Texas A&M, and he’s not a long-term shortstop anyway.

Julian Casablancas: I know you didn’t include The Strokes’ new album in your May music list, but they changed their style a bit and I really think you’d like some of the songs (Ode to the Mets, Selfless, etc)
Keith Law: I did hear several of those songs but they didn’t really do it for me.

Pat: Isn’t there a real chance that players not signing this year if they’re offered only 50-60% of slot end up in worse shape next year because the 2021 draft is loaded with 2021 players AND 2/3 of the 2020 class,so the player’s draft spot is lower?  It stinks, no good answer for a player in that position.
Keith Law: Yes, and some teams may try to take advantage of that situation by offering 50-60% of slot. “Take this, or maybe get less next year, or face a second shutdown and a worse situation overall.”

Matthew: Haven’t seen the Rockies connected to Max Meyer at all. Do you think he would be an option for them at 9? I see him as a better prospect than Detmers but he seems to be the consensus selection for them.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they took Meyer.

DJ: So… what exactly are we expected to do if we “never have a vaccine” or, based on latest estimates, it’s 4 to 5 years away? I’ve tried asking liberals this question, but don’t get a realistic response, and there’s no way everything will be shut down that long. We just have to physically lock grandpa and grandma up and get back to it at some point, don’t we?
Keith Law: Four to five years? That’s extremely pessimistic and not supported by anything I’ve seen. I enjoy how much you’re willing to limit the liberty of people older than you are, though. Forgive me for thinking of my parents, my partner’s parents … and perhaps your parents too.

Deeks: Curious what you would do as a GM/SD in this year’s draft, philosophically. It seems the plan to go so college heavy leaves prep players the value as early as the middle of Round 1. If you’re a team picking 10-20, do you sit in the weeds and snag Veen or Kelly? They seem like the rare example of the type of HS talent in this class you don’t pass on for the safety of the college pick.
Keith Law: Don’t see Veen getting out of the top ten. As for Kelley, or Abel, I keep hearing that teams in the top half of the round are hesitant to take HS pitchers given how uncertain the entire year is – lack of scouting looks, limited data, the revenue loss, etc.

Pat: With expanded rosters will we see  players like Pearson, Etc be on big league rosters out of the gate?
Keith Law: I hope so.

Leo: If the owners end up blinking, players know they will suffer the consequences of that in the future? For example this very next free agencies
Keith Law: The owners are going to pay less to free agents this winter no matter what.

ronald: I see your prior answers that kids low balled in the draft go back to school, but what if school is closed? does it behoove a kid to start a career under a professional teams watch rather than sit out a season?
Keith Law: We can’t really know now, or even in late July, if schools will be open the following spring.

Steve: Why do people against “opening up the economy” always resort to BS about people wanting a sense of normalcy just to get a fucking haircut? Some people are legitimately suffering from this due to not being able to work, and there’s a common-sense compromise in this situation. It just angers me at the stereotypes prevalent as if this is over something trivial like missing Happy Hour or wanting a haircut.
Keith Law: Arizona, with an Rt well over 1, just opened … fitness centers and public pools. Doesn’t get more trivial or reckless than that.

Pat: You think Milb just plays complex games?
Keith Law: I think there would be some sort of games, maybe like minor league spring training games, on back fields, but not close to four or five full teams’ worth per org. Just enough for a taxi squad of sorts for every club

Scherzers_Blue_Eye: I’m with Freddie P. Biden is horrible. His only saving grace is that Trump is worse. Is that what we want in our leader? “Well, he’s not the worst president we’ve ever had” isn’t a screaming endorsement. The “team” mentality in politics is destructive. The 2 party system is pointless and destructive. That’s the real problem
Keith Law: Okay, and what do you plan to do about it? Your vote for a third party will do nothing to advance that party. You’d have to get millions of people to do the same. I’ve been hearing this same story for nearly 40 years now, and it never changes. No third party candidate has won a single state since George Wallace, ten pounds of racism in a five pound bag. Ross Perot got 5% of the vote, but I don’t think another billionaire is what anyone is asking for right now. You have two choices: Biden, with all his flaws; or four more years of anti-science policies, including massive regulatory rollbacks and no preparation for public health crises, as well as the crushing of reproductive rights, LGBT rights, anti-discrimination protections, benefits for the poor, and much more. That ain’t a choice.

Michael: I think you made a joke about learning the characters by reading Smart Baseball first.  Seriously though, we can read them in any order right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Ivan: What is your most / least favorite and or realistic baseball movie?
Keith Law: Favorite is Sugar. Least favorite is Trouble with the Curve.

Mark W: I didn;t swing by here today to talk COVID, but I wanted to respond to the moving goalposts comment. When we all agreed to stay home to “flatten the curve” we assumed that the Feds would step in, announce a national plan for PPE, Ventilators, testing, contact tracing, etc. Can anyone here explain how the Fed response looks like anything other than a surrender?
Keith Law: (nods)

Robbie: Hey Keith, hope you have been staying healthy! This may take more than a chat to answer but how will a missed year impact teams strategies with their top prospects? Do you think we will see some of them skip stages as they have aged a year while missing a year of development? Or will teams send their top players where to the league that they should be in knowing they lost a possible year of their 20s
Keith Law: Excellent question without an answer.

Bryan (Montclair, NJ): Keith –  Given the potential length of this virus’ impact, the “stay at home” orders are tough without an end date in sight, particularly for those struggling financially.  It feels like we have to just sit back and take the hit.  Have you seen any rollout plans by states yet that seem to make sense to you?
Keith Law: Delaware is slowly reopening, allowing some more businesses to do curbside service, while there’s also a plan in place for increased testing and contact tracing. Maybe that’s easier here, in a state with under a million people where the worst outbreak is actually in the rural southern third (especially among immigrant populations, where access to medical care is limited by a number of factors), but that seems like a rational plan that acknowledges the economic hardships many people are facing.

Tom: The MLB draft isn’t the most exciting/watchable event of all time; in this day and age where we are all clamoring anything sports related on tv, anything MLB can do to make the draft more exciting for the casual fan?
Keith Law: Allow trades!

CR: I used to work as a barista back in my college days, but just got back into home espresso as a result of stay-at-home orders. I have a Breville Bambino Plus I’m happy with, and a solid lower mid-level grinder. I was wondering which roasters and blends you’re into, especially if they do mail order. While I have a few local roasters in my area, and some I’ve visited while traveling, I’m always down to try new things and support small businesses in the process. Thanks for the chat.
Keith Law: I’ve gotten beans during the shutdown from Spiller Park (which sells several roasters’ products), Re-Animator, Intelligentsia, Foxtail, Cartel, and Archetype. All are great.

Zachary: If MLB adds a team, is “Wyverns” a great name, or the best name?
Keith Law: A great name. I’m here for more teams taking nicknames from monsters from D&D. Although I would say the Nashville Gelatinous Cubes might be a bit too far.

Ed: Not trolling here. And as a married man who’s a feminist, I find it a really tough question. But here goes. If sexual assault doesn’t matter to republicans making their choice for president, why should it matter to democrats?
Keith Law: That’s not an unreasonable question, but I would answer that with “When they go low, we go high.” Democrats can still hold themselves to a higher ethical standard. I would argue that the standard might be lower than we’d want, because at some point the standard becomes an obstacle to winning, but it should be higher than the other side’s.

Mike: In a dream scenario, Biden wins with Warren as his VP, day one Biden resigns.  Even with a Dem Congress, could we then follow the New Zealand model and pay people to stay at home for three months to get this thing eradicated?  Or could that never happen in this country?
Keith Law: I can hear the screams of “welfare!” from Americans for Prosperity and the Club for Growth already.

Brian: I know it’s relative but doesn’t this lost year of development disproportionately hurt guys who are like 23 or 24 and on the cusp but need another year in AA or AAA compared to a teenager who would’ve been in High or Low-A?
Keith Law: Yes, and a lot of college players will be hurt as well, not playing this year and potentially starting their pro careers at 22+ without a single appearance.

Mike: Trump loves to accuse others of doing what he does. The “Obamagate” b.s. accuses Obama of weaponizing the intelligence and law enforcement communities which is what Trump is doing now. How does our national media not hammer him on this?
Keith Law: Gotta present both sides. Or something.

Mike: For those who long for a “sense of normalcy,” get used to the fact that the “normally” you crave isn’t likely to be seen for a long time, if ever.
Keith Law: That might be the most salient point of all: Much of the previous “normal” is gone. And, by the way, once this pandemic is suppressed, there will, at some point, be another one – and that next one could always be deadlier.

Robbie: Not to mention 4 more years of judicial appointments, which alone should have every democrat racing to vote out Trump
Keith Law: That’s the biggest threat to individual rights that I see.

CR: The problem with the people who want to reopen because “real people are hurting” is that they fail to realize the compromise isn’t between people who want to maintain the health and safety of as many people as possible and people who want to reopen to save the economy. The real compromise should be the government stepping up and sending everyone UBI for the duration of necessary stay-at-home period and doing the same for small businesses, enabling everyone to hit a universal pause button until this passes.
Keith Law: That’s New Zealand’s strategy, right? It seems to have worked, although they’re an island nation so their borders are naturally a bit closed.

Jack: I think people don’t realize that a vote for a candidate doesn’t have to mean “I whole-heartedly support everything this person stands for and unequivocally believe they will be the greatest leader in history!” A vote simply means “I have the power to control a very small share of the decision, and I choose to direct it toward this candidate at this time”
Keith Law: Exactly. It is a pragmatic decision.

TomBruno23: No real question right now, simply want to say it’s good to see you doing a Thursday chat. Almost like things are normal for a bit.
Keith Law: Just doing my civic duty.

Factz: Ross Perot got 19% of the vote in 1992
Keith Law: Yes. He was the last candidate to get over 5% of the vote.

Mike: Hope you are staying safe. I saw on a Twitter Luke Little from San Jacinto was up to 105 on some pitches. How is a lefty throwing that hard not a 1st round pick?
Keith Law: Because it’s not real. He’s not throwing in games off a mound.
Keith Law: I’m not sure anyone can actually throw that hard.

TomBruno23: I’m a teacher at a K-8 school in St. Louis City and there are already plans for alternative education plans and settings for the fall. No one has any idea how it will work.
Keith Law: I’ve heard from a friend in Pennsylvania that that’s in the planning stages there too. You have to be ready for any scenario, right?

Chris: How far is Casey martin going to slip? Mariners at 43 seem like a solid floor for him
Keith Law: Not a first rounder. Beyond that, I couldn’t give you a decent answer right now.

Brian: Are we all collectively dumb for arguing over whether or not Yadier Molina is a Hall of Famer? I’ve seen people arguing he’s not by comparing his numbers to Jason Kendall.
Keith Law: I would not vote for him, but the arguments are pretty tired to me. It’s not dissimilar to Vizquel: The stats pretty clearly say “no,” but supporters point to invisible factors to argue for “yes.” That’s like a religious divide – we’re not coming to some middle ground there.

JP: how many __aidens will get drafted this year (Aiden, Brayden, Caiden, Jayden, Rayden, Xaiden)?
Keith Law: This made me laugh.

JP: if seatbelts were just now invented in 2020, could they get 55% of the US population to approve of their use becoming law?
Keith Law: My memory could be off but I vaguely remember blowback when those laws were first passed, and I think there was some strong opposition to the 55 mph nationwide speed limit (which saved a lot of lives, but has since been gradually rolled back).

alex: Would you try Torkelson as a LF?  Martin as a SS?  Or would you stick them at 1b (3b in Martin’s case) and let them rake?
Keith Law: I would try him in LF; don’t think Martin is a shortstop, unless maybe his arm issue was a fluke, and even then I’d probably just leave him at third.

Joeseppi: Please thank TomBruno23 for teaching our kids.
Keith Law: Thank you to all the teachers out there; the ones I’ve seen on Zoom calls and group emails are clearly working as hard as ever, often while taking care of their own young kids at home too.

Karen: The invisible factors on Yadi are like Jim Rice’s fear factor, right?

(Saw this in Twitter recently, took me a half hour of Google searches to figure out why ‘The’ was misspelled intentionally, but holy wow funny).
Keith Law: TEH FEAR … gosh, that’s a trip down online memory lane.

TomBruno23: Can you explain what “Rt” is in regards to COVID-19?
Keith Law: The real-time infection rate. Rt of 1 means every infected person infects one other person. So Rt >1 means the disease is growing, Rt < 0 means it’s going down and will eventually slow/stop. Of course, Rt numbers change too – if you reopen too fast, an Rt below 1 can jump back above.

Mike: Keith, really enjoy the chat. Any idea what Mets are thinking? Due to most top guys in low minors, would they lean towards college kid?
Keith Law: I think more likely college guy, chance for HS bat, highly doubt they’d do a HS arm in the first.

Nate: Is it time to give up on Anthony Alford as a prospect? For a guy who’s always needed as many abs as possible, this situation certainly hasn’t helped but he’s definitely been slipping down lists for a while now.
Keith Law: I feel like his ship sailed, although I hate saying “never” on someone with that much physical ability.

Joeseppi: The refusal by some to vote for Biden is hard for me to understand. I get not liking Biden and I also understand not wanting to put your name on his election. But this isn’t a normal scenario. Am I being obtuse by carrying a ‘Job 1 is get Trump out’ approach to this cycle? It’s really all I care about right now. Hyper-focused on that through November.
Keith Law: Job 1A is then taking the Senate. No small task even before you consider voter suppression efforts in many states with Senate races this year.

JJ: Still don’t get why people think Elizabeth Warren is a viable candidate for VP.  The Democrats have to get the Senate back.  If she resigns from the Senate, her replacement would be appointed by Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker, a Republican.  He’s not appointing the nearest Kennedy.  Ergo, her selection as the VP candidate is a non-starter.  Political Science 101.
Keith Law: Any such appointment would only last until a special election, which under Massachusetts law must be held within 160 days of the vacancy.

NYCTim: You said earlier that Biden wasn’t among your Top 10 when the Democrats started. Who were your Top 3 back then?
Keith Law: I was a Warren supporter and I really still am. She has just about everything I could want in a President, and I aligned as well with her policy proposals as with any other candidate. But she didn’t have the one thing voters seemed to want most: She’s not a man.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks for popping back in after my long absence; I don’t know when I’ll do the next chat but I will do more between now and the draft, and I’m working on plans with The Athletic for something special on draft night as well. Also, thanks to all of you who’ve bought and read The Inside Game and offered such kind feedback on the book. I’m thrilled that so many of you enjoyed the book. Maybe some day I’ll write another one. Just not right now. Stay safe, everyone.

I’ve updated my ranking of the top 25 board game apps for Vulture. My review of the digital adapation of Charterstone is up at Ars Technica.

Keith Law: So let it be written. Klawchat.

Trav: What the hell is going on?
Keith Law: Well, the United States has the world’s worst response to the coronavirus pandemic, thanks to the current Administration, and as a result several thousand Americans will die when they would have survived had someone else been in charge.

Todd Boss: Since the 2020 baseball season is delayed, is Bryce Harper still overrated?  🙂
Keith Law: I’m sure someone on sports talk radio blames him for the Phillies being winless so far in 2020.

Aaron C.: Favorite Opening Day memory from BEFORE you started hatin’ everyone’s favorite team?
Keith Law: Weirdly enough, I don’t think of many memories specifically as Opening Day, despite going to quite a few of them. I think the Pedro-Carpenter matchup where we (Toronto) knocked Pedro around and ended up winning a slugfest was Opening Day, but I’m really not even sure.

WhiteSoxAndy: (What’s the Story) Morning Glory?
Keith Law: I do need a little time to wake up, thank you.

Deke: Best guess — what does the world look like in, say, July?
Keith Law: Pandemic still raging in developing nations, with worldwide deaths in the six figures.

Jordan: Why do the Astros seem unwilling to give Kyle Tucker consistent PT? Does still have the same long term upside as he once did?
Keith Law: I think some of it is his perceived lack of energy or effort, and some just the presence of other players. Upside is unchanged.

Aaron C.: What’s your favorite recipe from Ruhlman’s Twenty? I have the cookbook and…some time on my hands.
Keith Law: The braised duck legs. Never tried a recipe from that book that was less than good, though. His mayonnaise is my go-to as well.

OC Joe: Your thoughts on the MLB Draft proposal reported by Kiley? (July date, 5-10 rounds, 10% of bonus money up front, 45% deferred to 2021, 45% deferred to 2022)
Keith Law: Not what I’ve heard from industry sources.

Chris: Have you tried the Charterstone app? Any word on if it’s any good?
Keith Law: Yes, and I filed a long review to Ars Technica that should run any day now. I played a full 12-game campaign on Steam and thought it was good.

Todd Boss: Is it just me, or does an abbreviated “sprint” of a season kinda sound cool as hell?  Imagine a 60-game season where every game counts and has post-season tension, then leading to a post-season not riddled with fatigue and injuries?
Keith Law: It would be fun, but I also think an abbreviated season will mean games every day, and thus games where all the regulars are in the lineup will be infrequent.

JG: One day the current occupant of the White House will be gone.  But isn’t the REAL problem, the MILLIONS of American voters who are saying they approve of the job he’s doing with the pandemic, economy, etc?  They’re not going anywhere.
Keith Law: Nope. The hope is that there are enough rational people out there to outnumber the cultists, and that the rational people vote, because we know the cultists will.

Zach D: With the pause for MLB, starting pitchers are obviously impacted more. Can you see the league saying: we’re giving you 2 weeks to get ready then game time, and teams just using starters for 60-70 pitches for the first month of the season?
Keith Law: My guess is ~3 weeks of ramp-up, expanded rosters, and then pitchers used more gently maybe all season.

Dark Johnny Rises: Chris Rodriguez’s ceiling?  Make the rotation by 2021?
Keith Law: Call me when he’s healthy. He’s missed two years now.

Jaylen: Why is Nick Lodolo’s upside maybe not as high as someone like Spencer Howard? How would you compare Josiah Gray to those guys in terms of long term upside as well?
Keith Law: Stuff, delivery, FB quality. I did compare all three on my top 100 and would refer you there.

Krontz: When you play Dominion, do you roll your cards out on table before your turn?  My normal buddies and I do, to speed stuff up.  It’s not an issue at all.  I played with other friends recently and they were shocked I did that, saying it was a huge advantage strategy-wise I was giving them.  I told ’em to look as much as they wanted at my cards, not a big deal to me.  Am I missing a critical element?
Keith Law: Doesn’t everyone kind of know what’s in your deck anyway? They see every purchase you make.

Dark Johnny Rises: What do you think about Drew Rasmussen?
Keith Law: Promising reliever.

Chris: Thoughts on the proposed player service time situation?
Keith Law: Still working on a column on this subject. I do think any solution has to give players who play an entire, abbreviated season a full year of service. Anything less creates a systemic problem for years to come (problem for players … owners would win big).

Mike: Keith, what would YOU do re: the MLB Draft?
Keith Law: Still thinking about that one too, but it has to be somewhat shorter, both for practical reasons (less time to scout lower-round players) and needs (more top picks will play in short season, so there’s less need for filler guys).

Andres: Not baseball related, or hobby related, but how do we even begin to recover from this? As in, great, we survive, now how do we undo all the financial damage? Does Trump get re-elected despite the poor response?
Keith Law: We don’t, not really. Some significant number of Americans will lose their lives, and they won’t just be old people sacrificing themselves to save the stock market. (Holy shit, the people advocating that are *terrifying*.) A huge portion of our population will be affected by the losses of loved ones. The economy will be harmed for years. (Note: The stock market is not the economy. It’s not even a good proxy any more.) The labor force will be adversely affected. Many small businesses won’t survive this. I doubt we could ever have mustered a response like South Korea’s, but we could have saved so many more lives had the government been more prepared and responded sooner. Instead we had Kudlow on TV a month ago saying the virus was well contained, a bald-faced lie that only slowed the national response.

Dark Johnny Rises: Bryan Abreu looks like he can be a hader type?  What do you think?
Keith Law: I think Abreu is right-handed, so no, he can’t.

Darren: IF it was a normal year where would you probably be and what would you be doing?
Keith Law: Flying back from Arizona, most likely.

Darren: I personally do not believe we will have baseball this season, and if we do it will be without fans in attendance. Do you think there will be any part of an MLB season this year?
Keith Law: Yes. Half a season. Maybe some games with fans, some without. If we don’t get any games, it’s a sign of a larger problem with the pandemic.

Darren: Have you played Pandemic in the past month or two? I keep playing with my boys for hope the world can be saved.
Keith Law: Yep, played on Saturday. Got smoked once, won the second time.

Guest: Considering it looks like the prep and college seasons are going to be wiped out, is it too early to start linking teams with draft prospects or do we need “combines” or “pro-days” to get that kind of buzz?
Keith Law: No teams had any real meetings to discuss their plans, but I would imagine if they were candid with us most GMs/directors could tell you who they’d probably take in round one.

Erik: Pancakes or waffles?
Keith Law: Waffles.

Don: Would teams be incentivized to keep elite prospects in the minors during an abbreviated 2020 season in order to easily manipulate service time?
Keith Law: I thought the opposite – in a shorter season, there’s more variance, and bringing up a top prospect could have more direct impact on your playoff odds.

Aaron C.: Without getting too deep into your business, how’s your daughter dealing with all this? I have a 16 y/o son who alternates from loud false bravado to quiet concern/worry.
Keith Law: Still doing really well. I’m very proud of her for how she’s taking the possible loss of all the fun parts of eighth grade – she’s upset, of course, but keeping perspective too. I do think she’s a bit bored though.

Zach D: PSA to the Media: Stop broadcasting Trumps daily covid briefing. He’s using it as a campaign rally act since he can’t do those at the moment. It’s like after lie.
Keith Law: They should have stopped airing his briefings three years ago. Better late than never I guess.

John: Isn’t the fact the stock market has climbed because of the bailout package proof that the stimulus is only really good for the rich?
Keith Law: They bailed out corporations, which is what the market wanted, but in no way helps the average American; I think only about 50-55% of Americans own any stock at all.

Danny: Moncada’s defensive numbers were terrible at 2B but quite good at 3B.  Do you see him as an above average defender at third or was that just noise?
Keith Law: I wrote before he was traded that I thought he was better suited to 3b, after seeing him there in the AFL. It looks like that’s been true – his first-step quickness plays up there, and his upright style is less of an obstacle.

Adam: I read your top 100 in the Athletic.  Great stuff!  Do you happen to have a good former/current pro comp for kelenic?
Keith Law: I really don’t do player comps, sorry. I think they’re more likely to misinform than inform.

Erik: Has Greg Jones improved much at SS? I saw him play a handful of times in college and thought he was destined for CF at the next level. Are the Rays really bought in on him as a SS?
Keith Law: He hasn’t. I don’t know what they truly believe.

Joe: With all the other great candidates, how did Joe Biden end up as the nominee?  Do people think that because he is a white, middle of the road guy that he will appeal to the biggest subset of people?
Keith Law: Because he had name recognition. I think that’s 90% of it.

Alex: Just finished Trust Exercise and found it incredibly thought provoking and absorbing.  Just curious, do you have a theory of who the main villain was (SPOILERS): one person represented by separate characters or perhaps multiple people?  I would favor the latter, but it seems like many people favor the former.
Keith Law: Yeah, I don’t know that I have come to an answer to that one. The fact that someone may have ‘stolen’ another character’s tragedy (?) throws it all into disarray in my mind.

Mike: Confession: got 7 Wonders for Christmas, have read the instructions 3 times and still not played.
Trav: I don’t know how MLB could manage allowing fans toward the fall. Reading multiple medical officials suggesting it’s possible, if not likely, that a successful flattening of the curve means another round of this come autumn/winter.
Keith Law: We just don’t know yet.

Dave G.: I’d say that Trump didn’t create this Republican part; it (and Fox News) created him. His skill was reading the room and knowing how to put on the racist, misogynist, xenophobic, pseudo-Christian show the audience wanted. It might not be as bad when he leaves, but the problem isn’t going away.
Keith Law: No, not quickly enough, but I do think the long-term trends on bigotry and on religiosity are both pointing down. Eventually, those people will be sufficiently outnumbered that we won’t get a bunch of budding theocrats in office every time the Republicans win.

Guido L: What is a good recipe to make that’ll last awhile but doesn’t use super expensive ingredients?
Keith Law: I’m a big fan of making extra grains (rice especially) so that I can repurpose them as leftovers (fried rice, although that trick works with many grains).

addoeh: “Increasing the amount on unemployment checks will decrease people’s willingness to work” said someone who has never had to be unemployed.
Keith Law: Or someone who has simply never made that little money and doesn’t grasp that unemployment checks don’t go very far.

Matt: Venn Diagram of people that want old folks to sacrifice their lives to save the economy and those that are pro-life is a circle right?
Keith Law: No question.

Sam: Not that I think the bailout was good or have super in depth economics knowledge, but couldn’t you make the argument that while relatively few Americans own stock, most Americans work for companies that have stock and stabilizing the market may have preserved those jobs at least a little longer?
Keith Law: You couldn’t because it’s not true. 48% of Americans work for small businesses. That doesn’t include the self-employed, or people who work for closely held businesses.

Trevor: Bill Ripken’s book State of Play synopsis: “Advanced statistics and new terminology have taken hold of baseball today, but do they accurately reflect the reality of the game?” Yes. Yes, they do. That is the answer.
Keith Law: I was offered a review copy of that book multiple times. I did not accept the offer.

Matt: I know you too busy to write about it, but did you watch start of Top Chef last week?
Keith Law: No. I haven’t watched Top Chef in several years now.

Arnold: Whenever it is held, how does MLB conduct a draft when there was little or no high school or college seasons to scout?  Do they go by the 2019 season?
Keith Law: Scouts went out and saw players last summer and fall, and then briefly this spring. It won’t be the same draft that it would have been with a full season this year, but they have enough looks and data to have a draft.

Nick V: If you were the GM of an average team/market/payroll with an average roster but a poor farm system and were given 10 years of job security, what would your strategy be to bring that team in contention?
Keith Law: In the current environment? I’d strip the major-league roster to build up the farm system. Being average is a poor strategy under the current system.

Gregory: How much impact will this shortened season have on the development of minor league players? Much impact on ETA? Increased injuries?
Keith Law: It will slow some guys who needed reps – players who might be more physically gifted but were/are still working on baseball skills.

tnj629@gmail.com: A coworker says this virus was engineered by the Chinese government in retaliation for Trump’s policies.  How should I reply to him?
Keith Law: You can’t, really. He’s delusional. Maybe just hand him a tin foil hat.

addoeh: What prospect that you ever scouted most impressed you the first time you saw them?
Keith Law: Harper.

Bryan: Do you think the Dodgers will use Gonsolin in a “flex” role as mainly a long reliever but one of their 12 starters when needed throughout the year?
Keith Law: I assume most teams will try to have a Gonsolin or two on their roster – someone who can start, but isn’t officially in the rotation, so he can be a long reliever or make spot starts as needed. Pitching stats this year, if we get a half-season or so, might be the weirdest ever.

Aaron C.: For some reason, my wife bought a shit-ton of potatoes. Any go-to recipes in the Law household? (I mean, I *could* eat homefries for the next four days, but…)
Keith Law: I parboil them, toss them with olive oil that I’ve used to brown some garlic (strained out), salt, pepper, and chopped herbs, then roast for an hour at 425, turning to brown on several sides.

Drew: As a practicing Christian, I find the platforms of Warren, Sanders, (and now by proxy, Biden) to be way more in line with the teachings of Christ. I even think there’s room for pro-life voters on the left, since their policies reduce the need for abortion. Do you hold out any hope for religiosity to be less cultish and better balanced between the two parties or am I an outlier?
Keith Law: I would like to see real demographic survey data on this; my impression is that the moderately religious are becoming less common, so that we have more polarization – the nonreligious are clearly growing at the fastest rate, but the extremely religious are at least not shrinking, and they vote as reliably as any group. They have every right to believe and practice what they want, but I don’t want them making policy decisions (or choosing judges) for the country.

Jeries: Would a trade for Arenado require more or less than the Red Sox got for Betts?
Keith Law: More if there’s no Price-like contract attached.

Jeremy: Props to all of the leagues, universities, businesses, etc. that are still finding ways to pay employees who are being force to stay home. Those who aren’t, especially the ones who have the resources to do so, and the people that support their actions, can all go to hell.
Keith Law: Including my alma mater, with the largest endowment in the nation, which is kicking the low-wage dining workers to the curb.
Keith Law: I can’t wait till the next fundraising call!

Pat D: Should we be surprised that a place like Liberty University is already planning to bring students back to campus?
Keith Law: I’m surprised on one level. I’m not surprised that their dear leader is pushing false narratives and anti-science viewpoints. I’m surprised he’s acting on those. Maybe he actually believes his own bullshit.

Todd Boss: One fun point about the GOP/Lindsay Graham argument that “we’re giving unemployed people too much money so they won’t want to work.”

Its almost precisely the argument that the minimum wage needs to be increased!  “Hey, why should I work when I can get nearly as much in welfare/disability as I would working 40hrs/week at $7.25.”  

Hypocrite much?
Keith Law: They view it as an argument to reduce welfare/disability checks, to keep them below the minimum wage, and then they can argue to reduce the minimum wage.

Stu: A friend of mine and I were discussing how long COVID can live on surfaces.  It’s pretty scary that some could for instance touch your leg with their hand and the virus can live in that surface for a while.
Keith Law: The virus can, but that isn’t the same as enough viral particles to make you sick – especially since the virus is respiratory. If you lick your leg (ew?) you still probably wouldn’t get sick from that.

Dan: How does Mitch Keller’s slider addition last season change his projected outcome, if at all? Have to imagine it’s still tough to project a front-line SP without a legitimate changeup. The slider looked pretttty nice though.
Keith Law: It doesn’t change it. He has to find a pitch to get LHB out.

Danny: How many annual pop-up guys will suffer from no prep/college season? Keoni Cavaco is an extreme example but how many guys legitimately pop-up like that from not on the radar to top 4 rounds?
Keith Law: I’d guess a dozen or so a year, mostly HS and JC kids, rarely four-year college guys. Brent Rooker would be one of the latter – if he doesn’t get a full spring as a fourth-year junior, he doesn’t go on day one of the draft.

Sam: Any prospects you are particularly disappointed to not get to see this year?
Keith Law: All of them. Not joking. I miss the actual nuts and bolts of going to watch players and write about them.

Scott: With stores having empty shelves mostly around me, what’s the best way to store vegetables and other aromatics for the long haul?
Keith Law: Aromatics should last weeks; many vegetables freeze well. I don’t have a root cellar or anything similar but those do work. If you have white vinegar, you can pickle onions rather than tossing them.

Leo: What can you tell us about Oscar Marin? Didn’t seem to be a big name coming over to PIT, but pitchers seem to be buying in. Of course, Ray Searage admitted to not being an analytics guy so anything is an improvement. Can you see a big jump for Musgrove or a return to glory for Archer coming?
Keith Law: No, I don’t see a big jump for Musgrove coming, and Archer is just a ‘who knows’ at this point as the Rays couldn’t seem to get more out of him either.

Avery: Have you seen Tanner Houck at all? What pitch type or possible delivery change could help his splits be less dramatic?
Keith Law: I have. His low slot and lack of an average changeup make him a likely reliever. His platoon splits are the symptom.

Josh: Where does Dwight Gooden 1985 season rank for you in terms of all time best single season pitching performances?
Keith Law: By Baseball-Reference’s WAR, it is the best pitching performance in the integrated era. I would probably still give the nod to Pedro in 2000 (5th all time) for the ‘best’ honor, given the better competition and high offensive environment.

mike: 3 million filed for unemployment, and the markets are up. anyone that thinks the economy and the markets are linked is delusional….I can’t believe I fell for this shit when I got my MBA. Capital doesn’t give a damn about labor, other than how it can exploit it. Hell, we are taught that in school….
Keith Law: That is generally true: Capital doesn’t care about labor. They care about public sentiment, sometimes.

tnj629@gmail.com: I told my coworker what you said.  This was his reply – Don’t know who Keith Law is or why he is credible?  China has a connection to this. Media can try to cover for them all they want.
Keith Law: I told you – you can’t reason with people like that. He’s like an anti-vaxxer or a creationist. They believe what they want to believe, and facts won’t change their minds.

Eamon: From what I could read it sounded like MIL traded for Urias to play SS. Is there any chance (aside from current injury) Arcia keeps that from happening and pushes Urias back to 2B?
Keith Law: Doesn’t sound like they’re open to that possibility, but I haven’t asked anyone with Milwaukee about this.

Luke: Former Mets “Big 5” – Matz, Harvey, Syndergaard, deGrom, Wheeler. TJ, TJ, TJ, TJ, TJ. Fun times!
Keith Law: deGrom was before he was even a prospect, though. The others, sure.

Dark Johnny Rises: With recent J2 classes producing 19-20 yr old mlb’ers like Vlad, Tatis, Acuna, Soto, and the next guys like Wander and maybe Luciano.  Has int’l scouting improved to rank these guys early?  Do you think Jasson has a chance to be the next one?
Keith Law: I do think scouting and development have improved for those kids, yes. Teams are identifying players more efficiently than they did ten years ago, and clearly helping the elite kids develop faster as well.

addoeh: If you parents named you Richard, would you go around as Dick Law?
Keith Law: Probably not. You should ask my dad.

Fuzz: Wouldn’t corporations that receive gov’t assistance be disincentivized to run efficiently and profitably as those seeking unemployment? Or is this more likely a way for the GOP to funnel tax dollars to GOP donors (Corp execs, owners, etc.) so they will then, in turn, give some of it back to the GOP in donations?
Keith Law: No, no, corporations that receive government assistance would never do that. They’re too busy funneling money back to politicians to ensure the spigot stays open and no nasty environmental regulations get in their way!

Adam: Luisangel Acuna.  Is this a player to keep an eye on?  Bloodlines and seemed to do well his first year.  What’s the upside?
Keith Law: He’s in the Rangers farm report.

Pat D: Listening to CNN right now with them interviewing Peter Navarro.  He’s once again blaming things on Obama for what they “inherited.”  And people believe this shit.  It’s why I know they’re all just cultists.
Keith Law: The Trump Administration inherited a pandemic response team too.

Dark Johnny Rises: Will Chris Paddack’s 2 pitch mix succeed in the majors?  Or does he really need to develop the CB?
Keith Law: I think you can succeed as a major league starter with a plus CH, above avg FB with command, and fringy breaking ball. I don’t think the same is true if you switch the breaking ball and the CH.

Matt: You should up these chats to 2x a week since there’s nothing for us to do.
Keith Law: Aside from the fact that they’re kind of exhausting to do, there isn’t enough baseball stuff to talk about to support even one a week right now.

Hodgey: You can’t expect the jump back to his MVP-like seasons, but is Matt Carpenter get himself into Comeback POY talks? Or was last season the start of a mighty quick downfall?
Keith Law: He’s 34. He’s almost certainly declining.

Tim (KC): Thanks for the chat Keith… so the Braves, then Padres, White Sox and maybe the Rays; who is the next team on the way to building an elite farm system?
Keith Law: Giants.

Aaron G: I crunched numbers last night and figured that we’d have one million-ish infected by April 8th (standard doubling, 3.5 day rate). Assuming summer beings relief, what do you think the odds are of a fall/winter COVID-19 comeback?
Keith Law: I’m really not qualified to even guess at that one. We don’t know what immunity if any you get if you’ve been infected with COVID-19 and recovered.

Dean: Before Sale had TJ news would it have been easy to dump him off on another team?  Or were teams wise enough to stay away?
Keith Law: Everyone knew he had an underlying injury. Teams see everything you see and more.

Griz: hey Keith, regarding Parks game – I agree the photo part is a little wonky but hey, that seems to be the ticket to victory thus far for me, as the end scores have always been close, and those few points from pictures have made the difference.
Keith Law: I agree that the points end up mattering because it’s all fairly close, but it strikes me as a weird or just not-fun way to get points. It’s kind of perfunctory, like, oh, fine, i’ll take a picture.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. I won’t promise another chat for next week because who the heck knows what will be going on, other than that we should all still be staying home as much as possible. I will be writing some stuff for the Athletic in the next week on off-field topics, and I have a lot of board game content coming too. Be safe, everyone.

Subscribers to The Athletic can see my top 100 prospects ranking as well as all of my prospect content so far, which as of today includes the top 100, the ‘just missed’ column, and org reports for the AL East and Central. My ranking of all 30 farm systems will run on Monday.

Keith Law: Some kind of night into your darkness. Klawchat.

Spencer: What is your biggest concern with Luis Garcia (WAS)?  What does he need to do to get back into your top 100?
Keith Law: He was never on my top 100. What exactly is the plus tool there? What does he do well, other than being young for his level?

eric: are you worried about flying for your work (or pleasure) with the coronavirus threat? would you refuse to at any point?
Keith Law: If the CDC advises people to stop flying, yes, I would stop. I’m certainly aware of this possibility, and I’m not taking any undue risks.

addoeh: You like to joke that “no one ever reads the intro”. But when it comes to rankings and lists, no one ever reads the content. From “The Keith Law -> Show” episode you had with Longenhagen, and looking at what Callis and Mayo have described in their evaluations, you all said similar things on Madrigal, you just value his skillset differently. But because the rankings are different, people have their torches and pitchforks out.
Keith Law: The reaction to that, and to my exclusion of Drew Waters, was really embarrassing. If you take sportsball rankings that seriously that you feel the need to insult a total stranger online, you should probably log off and contemplate your behavior.

Hank: Do you think Anthopolous will explore locking up Soroka and/or Fried? Seems like the new trend is early extensions around baseball.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t lock up Soroka with his injury history.

Dave: Hi Klaw, I hope you’re having a good one. Two questions, the most important, do you think Jarren Duran has the talent to become a significant part of the Red Sox’s future? Second, can this country overcome another four years of the liar in chief?
Keith Law: Duran can be a regular in the right scenario, not a ‘significant’ player though. No, I don’t think we can – it’s the deterioration of our democracy and essential institutions that scares me.

Logan: How did Ozzie Albies only get 7 years 35 million? Even with his option years, it’s a 9/49 max deal.  When he signed the deal he already had 200+ MLB games under his belt and was an All Star too. Players who hadn’t even played in Majors yet are securing larger salaries and total possible payouts.
Keith Law: Terrible advice.

Greg: It’s refreshing to see a different perspective regarding Drew Waters. The BABiP is insane, tons of K’s. He’s got bust written all over him. Brave fans are completely over-valuing him.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say he has ‘bust written all over him,’ but there are serious red flags, including his lack of any kind of approach and questions about his makeup.
Keith Law: Would he be so overvalued if he weren’t also from Georgia?

Amit: What would do with Marcus Semien if you were in charge of the A’s? I feel if they can’t reach a contract extension before the season starts they should trade him. Would hate for them to lose him after the year for just a draft pick and they do have some of in house options in Mateo, Allen, etc. Also feel Chapman and Olson are higher priorities for keeping long term.
Keith Law: Eh, if they think they can contend again, it makes sense to keep him this year and play it out.

Larry: How many of these college pitchers have a chance to grade out better than last years top college pitcher Nick Lodolo?
Keith Law: 3-5. It’s a great pitching class.

John: How do you factor in organizational success in developing or not developing certain positions when you do your prospect rankings?  I’ll use the example of Cleveland having success in developing starting pitchers (Bieber, Civale, Plesac, even Plutko to an extent).
Keith Law: The rankings are completely team-agnostic. Any player can be traded at any time.

Sean: Hi Kieth – is Vladito destined to be the Prince Fielder of Canada as a 1b/DH for the Jays, esp with Groshans on the way? Also, their outfield is terrible, should they sign Puig?
Keith Law: I think and have long thought Vlad Jr has to be a DH. I know Jays fans didn’t want to hear it a year ago but now that you’ve seen him at third you probably understand why i said that.

Jabroni: Vaughn or Torkelson?
Keith Law: Torkelson.

Dave C: With only 1 option left should the Mets throw Kilome in the bullpen or try to stretch him out post TJ? Ditto Szapucki
Keith Law: Not sure why the option plays into it here … the bigger question is whether he can ever start, and I don’t think he can.

Dave: Keith, wondering how Miguel Amaya stacks up versus other catchers on your list (obviously inferior based on NOT making the list)? He’ll be repeating AA as a 20-yr old with above average defense…is his meh-ish offensive potential holding him back in your view?
Keith Law: Amaya has never played in AA. He hit .235 last year in high A. He’s a prospect but I don’t understand why anyone expected to see him on the top 100.

Bruce: In your just missed segment, you said that Andrew Knizner was not a good receiver and may fit better in a utility role as a part time catcher. How likely is it for a catcher to be able to improve their receiving skills at this point in their career? Does Knizner still have the potential to be an every day MLB catcher?
Keith Law: Depends on the catcher – some just need more instruction, some will never have the hands to do it. I think Knizner is more likely in the latter category.

Bruce: The Brewers just signed Freddy Peralta to an extension. His success to date has been limited – flashes of brilliance followed by bad outings. Was that a worthwhile risk for Milwaukee?
Keith Law: It’s so little money relative to what an MLB team should spend that I think it’s fine. He’s just not the type of player I’d be rushing to lock up long term.

Frank: As a fellow democrat, do you share the “doom and gloom” of a seemingly-impending Bernie Sanders nomination (re: being unable to defeat Trump in the General Election)?  Could a Warren/Buttigieg or Biden/Clinton pre-convention announcement slow his momentum? Socialism will never “sell” in the red states.
Keith Law: No matter who the Democrats nominate, the Republicans will call them a “socialist,” and the media will happily parrot it, and 70% of Americans will believe it because they don’t know what socialism actually means and that not even Bernie is actually proposing policies that resemble socialism.

Stan: Hi Keith! Where would Martin and Torkelson rank on your Top 100 list if they were eligible? Thanks!
Keith Law: Other than saying they’d be on the list somewhere, I prefer not to answer that type of question, mixing amateur players with professional ones.

Ron: Hi Keith-Love all your work. And I am not one to complain if “My Team” prospect didn’t make your top 100 or is ranked lower than I think.  I don’t scout and I don’t talk to scouts, so actually how do I know what that prospect is like? Just like 100 % of the complainers of your work.  So keep it up. Just like you’re doing. One question: How easy will it be for the Twins to get Lewis back on track with his mechanics at the plate?  Thanks!!
Keith Law: I feel like it shouldn’t be hard to get a player back to where he was two years ago – not like you’re trying to teach him something totally new.

Tank: Not really as a blanket statement towards leaning towards safety in a prospect overall, just a specific instance here: am I wrong for being more confident in Gigliotti being an MLB regular in some form than that Wilmington trio (Pratto, Melendez, Matias)?
Keith Law: I don’t see the path for Gigliotti to be a regular right now.

Greg: Is an economy-tanking coronavirus outbreak the thing that might actually lead to Trump losing? And if so… worth it?
Keith Law: I don’t think anything would contribute as much to a Trump loss as a down economy, but I could never say the deaths of a few thousand Americans from coronavirus is a cost ‘worth’ paying to remove anyone from office.
Keith Law: I do think a disastrous federal response to a pandemic would also contribute to a Democrat win.

Paul: If Hosmer was a FA, what type of contract would he get? (Lol)
Keith Law: Less than 2 and $20MM.

Steve: What do you think of Patrick Weigel? Good bullpen arm for 2020?
Keith Law: Probably. NL East reports on Tuesday.

SeanE: I know you are skeptical that Oneil Cruz can stick at SS due to his height.   The Pirates seem intent on keeping him there…at least for now. Considering he is already at AA level  (and could see Indy this year)at what point do the Pirates have to make that call?
Keith Law: This would be the year for me. Maybe they could hold off one more year but why?

Jason: Most likely scenario for Trevor Larnach given his defensive limitations – (1) doesn’t hit enough to play enough every day; (2) is a league-average hitter for a corner OF but gives back most of his value defensively; (3) is an above-average hitter so his team lives with his limitations in the field
Keith Law: somewhere between 2 and 3.

Jim: Keith, Having lots of fun reading through the team-by-team writeups.  A couple of questions:  is there a particular reason you stopped including “Others of Note” after Boston’s?  And could you expand on your “willingness to compete” comment on the White Sox’s Matt Thompson?  Thanks!
Keith Law: I didn’t stop including them. I’m looking at Cleveland’s right now, for example.

EL: Besides Balazovic, any other Canadian baseball prospects I should follow?
Keith Law: Dasan Brown comes to mind.

Zach: Does Lodolo make a big jump in your ranking this year if he has a good year? Seems like ++ control and a good frame to develop.
Keith Law: Not about a good or bad year but about what he is. If he somehow adds velocity, sure, but I don’t think he has the frame for that.

JC: Isn’t it strange on a conceptual level how non-industry people can argue with your rankings? Granted you can’t just fall into the appeal to authority trap, but other than comparing it to other lists or looking at a prospect’s fangraphs page for 5 minutes, what exposure do 99.5% of complaining people have to the prospects?
Keith Law: Nothing. A local journalist decided to question my integrity this morning about a player he’s obviously never seen and who he said won an award that doesn’t exist.
Keith Law: Whatever, it’s part of the job, everyone’s an expert on everything now.

Rick Delaney: I’m midway through Gaddis, “A Frolic of His Own.” You’ve read him?
Keith Law: I read The Recognitions but I can’t say I really understood it.

Wait, what?: Do you think that a large part of Manfred trying to cover up the Astros scandal has a lot to do with preventing other team’s schemes from reaching the public?
Keith Law: I think a large part of Manfred’s response to the Astros/Red Sox is to try to prevent the other teams doing this shit from getting out.
Keith Law: And other teams were doing it. Not a lot, but others.

Kevin: I remember years ago you mentioned you that Severino was a bullpen arm most likely because of his violent delivery. Do you think moving forward after his recovery, should he go into the bullpen or keep starting?
Keith Law: Really depends on the injury and the rehab, no? He was hurt before the elbow tear, so this isn’t like, say, Michael Kopech, who had TJ but didn’t have a previous injury and will likely just step right back into starting.

eric: did you read quinn norton’s post about life after being “canceled?” i think the idea of that story is really interesting, but hers just read like “NOT FAIR! I’M A GOOD PERSON (even though i befriended nazis and made offensive homophobic and racist jokes)!”
Keith Law: No, after how she handled that controversy, I’m not that interested in anything she has to say.

Jack: Just to confirm – even at a prospect level, there’s nothing at all valuable when looking at box scores from spring training games, correct?
Keith Law: Correct.

Appa Yip Yip: If Alejandro Kirk does improve his conditioning, could he be an everyday catcher, or he likely a backup C/DH who can rake, like a short Evan Gattis?
Keith Law: Gattis could never really catch. Kirk can.

JSD: There is a thread on twitter asking White Sox fans if they would be pleased if Luis Robert’s career was similar to Rickey Henderson’s career.  Most ‘fans’ said no.  How is it that people don’t realize just how good Rickey was — it’s not the long ago.  Is it because he hung around and was basically an average player at the age of 42/43? Really, what gives?!
Keith Law: That was astonishing. If you don’t recognize Rickey is one of the 15-20 best players ever then, fine, just don’t participate in that kind of discussion.

Michael: I don’t think there has been a good explanation as to why “Carona” virus is worse than the bad flu that happened a couple of years ago.  Any insight?
Keith Law: The virus itself (or the resulting illness) isn’t worse. The incubation period is longer, however, so people are spreading the virus before they know they’re sick, which makes it much more likely to become a pandemic.

Andres: As a Mets fan, what should I expect out of Wacha? Maybe a 2-WAR season?
Keith Law: I’d be happy with that.

tim: how likely is it that we’ll see robo-umps calling balls and strikes in MLB and how will that impact how catchers are valued?
Keith Law: By 2022 I expect an automated strike zone and universal DH.

Torkelson: I will be drafted #1 by detroit, no doubt.
Keith Law: There’s doubt. Austin Martin is pretty damn good. I think it’s one of those two.

Chris: Will players play less hard this year given that they’re just competing for a piece of metal?
Keith Law: Only the ones who realize it’s just for a piece of metal.

Chris: How often will you podcast?
Keith Law: It should be every week, my schedule permitting.

Matt: Why is it so hard to draft good players? Mike Piazza was drafted in like the 956th round and a hall of famer. Brien Taylor was #1 pick and never made it to MLB.
Keith Law: OK, you picked maybe the two most extreme, ridiculous examples to make some kind of point here. Taylor never reached the majors because he got jumped in a bar fight, not because it was a bad pick.

John: I think I have food tastes that are somewhat similar to yours, but when it comes to coffee, I would imagine that you’d consider my tastes middlebrow.  I like Peet’s and Starbucks, especially their darker roasts.  Moreover, when I’ve had coffee from independent roasters, I’ve often perceived the taste to be a bit too bitter.  Can you explain what I’m missing and what your reaction is when you have coffee from a mainstream coffee outlet (but to be clear, still a place that focuses on coffeee… not like McDonalds coffee or something like that)?
Keith Law: That’s interesting because I believe the chemicals in coffee that produce bitter flavors are much more present in darker roasts and in coffees that are overbrewed (too high a water/ground coffee ratio). You may be detecting more ‘sour’ flavors in lighter roasts, which is true because those flavors tend to vanish or be overshadowed by longer roasting. But lighter-roasted coffee is not more bitter unless the brewer isn’t using enough coffee in the first place.
Keith Law: Also, I wouldn’t consider your tastes middlebrow. They’re just not my tastes.

Alex: 100 prospects/30 teams means roughly each team should have about 3 players on your top 100.  Is it fair to say that a team without at least 2 players in the top 100 is not really doing a good job managing their farm system?
Keith Law: No.

eric: do you have any tattoos? i’m thinking about getting my first, but still debating if, where and what
Keith Law: I do not. My girlfriend vetoed my “I HATE YOUR TEAM” upper back tattoo idea the other day.

Idaho Nuke: I’m about as far-right as you can get (I would never vote for Trump for a few reasons though) and I would like to thank you for always keeping our brief political discussions civil over the past several years on Twitter. It is nice to have short chats with someone who agrees with me on virtually nothing when both sides are respectful.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. Happy to talk to anyone who is civil in turn.

TP: Thanks so much for all of your hard work on the Top 100! Do you have any issues with blogs and websites that cover specific teams posting parts of your top 100 (i.e. names and rankings for players in the org. they cover)? From all of the content that is out there, you can actually reverse engineer your top 100 list (albeit just the names and rankings – not the write ups, although some sites have also posted portions of those…)
Keith Law: I have asked some people to take down screenshots of entire player capsules. That’s copyright infringement.

Appa Yip Yip: Patrick Murphy placed 14th on your Jays list despite his lengthy injury history. If he didn’t have that history and had just steadily worked his way up, where would he have ranked? Guess I’m asking what his ceiling is.
Keith Law: He might be a top 100 guy if he were completely healthy (or had just the one TJ on his record). Stuff is there. Gotta pitch some time, though.

eric: Bigger question: Torkelson or Turk Turkelton?
Keith Law: Chuckie Lee Torkelson.

Patrick: Thanks for the detailed write-up on the Royals.  Appears at the surface, the lack of position player prospects is holding down the system a little bit.  Fair assessment?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Bort: What would you say is the biggest level jump there is in the minors (besides AAA to the majors of course).
Keith Law: high A to double A.

Alex: Big fan of your work. First time I’ve caught a chat on time though. What are your opinions on Potential 1st rounder Ed Howard?
Keith Law: Seems like the kind of high-risk, athletic, maybe not that advanced player teams shy away from in the first round and overpay afterwards.
Keith Law: overpay = over slot, not pay too much.

Jackie: Assuming Clemens and Bonds never get the necessary votes from you the BBWAA  to get into the HOF, how do you think the Veterans’ Committee will look at them?  Do they sail in, or do the Joe Morgan types keep them out?
Keith Law: I think they’ll do worse with ex-players than they have with writers.

Guest: Anthony Kay was on your top50 midseason honourable mention, but wasn’t in the top 100 this go-around. Was this performance related, or did just too many guys jump over him? Thanks.
Keith Law: The lists are not sequential, and the honorable mentions aren’t necessarily guys 51-55 or something.

Jim L: What are you thoughts on Bloomberg for president? To me, he seems like he can work with both sides and can also counter Trump’s main boast of being rich and successful.
Keith Law: Hard pass. History of mistreating women, racial profiling, supporting right-wing candidates … nah, we’re good.

Dylan: Your annual breakout column is my favorite column of the year. Are you going to write one this year now that you’re at the Atlantic? Many fantasy baseball players (or at least the smrt ones) rely on your insights. Thanks for the great work.
Keith Law: No, but I plan to write one at the Athletic.

Jared: The Brewers owner said that they operated at a loss last year since they signed a couple free agents but also sanctioned a study saying how the stadium makes the city so much money. Seems like mixed signals to me. Thoughts?
Keith Law: It seems most likely that they are lying about all of it.

John: Can you explain why the general public does not seem to be embracing Elizabeth Warren? She is incredibly smart, prepared, progressive and pragmatic. Is 90% of the reason misogyny? 95%?
Keith Law: I’d say 80% misogyny, 20% that Bernie was ‘there’ first (from 2016).

Ben: I know you were in favor of the Giants effectively buying Will Wilson for $12M yet he didnt make your top 100 or near missed list.  So if $12M is a good investment for a guy who is not in the top 120 of all MLB prospects, doesnt that speak volumes to how undervalued and underpaid these guys really are?
Keith Law: Yes, yes it does.

Andy: I live in Madison, WI and go to a couple of Brewer games a year. I have spent probably $1000 in the Milwaukee area due to attending Brewer games, none of it in actual Milwaukee other than parking and things at the stadium. In fact, I’ve never once actually left the stadium towards Milwaukee. So you can add this to the anecdata about how Miller Park adds very little to the surrounding area.
Keith Law: Right? The stadium isn’t even downtown! It’s not like you can walk out of Miller Park and into a bar and stumble out of there into another bar (speaking of which, no one mentions the added costs of more people getting drunk in your city, so you need more policing, have more minor crimes, etc.).

Andy: Apparently for next year, your top 100 rankings should be your ranking of all the people who others have ranked in the top 100.
Keith Law: It is the only way to make some people happy. I would think that if you pay to read my work, you’d want my work.

Mitch: Re: Amaya. He had a 122 wRC+ as the youngest hitter in his league at the most demanding position with great underlying metrics. How can we not expect to see him on the top 100?
Keith Law: wRC+ is a useless stat for minor leaguers, in large part because it over-rewards walks. Chase Vallot had a 136 wRC+ in high A (same level and league as Amaya) in his age-20 season (same age as Amaya). He was and is a non-prospect.
Keith Law: Vallot was a catcher too, BTW.

lucas: Will Cavan Biggio ever hit enough to be a regular? The sky high walk rates make me believe he at least has a good approach at the plate?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think he will.

Jon: Do you think Clarke Schmidt could find his way into the Yanks rotation this season?
Keith Law: Yes.

Spencer: You’re right.  Confused the Luis Garcias again.  Hate when that happens.
Keith Law: There’s another one now, in Houston’s system, who might be the best of the three.

Mario: Tom Murphy or Sean Murphy – who is the better offensive catcher?
Keith Law: Sean.

DdogersDude: Tim Tebow…..  Why?
Keith Law: Hey, I feel quite confident that he is one of the 25 best baseball players in (checks notes) the Philippines.

Michael: Hey Keith- Not really prospect related, but do you think any of the candidates for the 5th spot in the Phillies rotation: Pivetta, Velasquez, Suarez – have a shot to develop into anything approaching league average (or better)?
Keith Law: Mayyyybe Suarez. Not the others.

Joe: Keith, is Kumar Rocker a generational type prospect like many fans are hyping him up to be, or is he just the most famous one at the moment?
Keith Law: Just the most famous. Would bet against him going 1-1 in 2021 right now (that is, I would bet on the field).

Michael: There is a great QB at Clemson who will be the #1 pick next year. I’m a believer that he should sit the year out because why get injured when you are playing for free.  Would that work in baseball with a great pitching prospect?
Keith Law: Yes. Hell, we take pitchers in the first round after they’ve missed their entire draft years due to Tommy John.

Andy: How could there be a disastrous federal response to the pandemic? We have Mike Pence on the case and he absolutely will do what the scientists say and is known for listening to evidence and quickly adjusting his thinking.
Keith Law: I heard he wants to send coronavirus to conversion therapy and turn it into a rhinovirus instead.

Alex: Does Kyle Isbels AFL performance help rebuild his stock enough that if he has a good year this year he’ll be considered for the top 100?
Keith Law: The AFL performance does not – tiny sample in a hitter’s league. However, he has some of the raw tools to be a top 100 guy in the future, if his wrist strength is 100% this year.

eric: if you were deciding between two pitchers, would you take the guy who throws 100 with ease, but not great command/control, or a guy who sits at 88-92 with pinpoint control?
Keith Law: The former. The guy throwing 88-92 is going to have a hard time avoiding hard contact. There aren’t many Kyle Hendrickses out there.

Jason: I know you’re a big metal guy, so I’ve always wondered your opinion on my favorite act of the 80s – GnR.  GnR obviously isn’t metal, but I believe hard rock is appropriate.  Yes, the star only shone for a few years, but boy was it bright.  Thoughts?
Keith Law: Appetite was a landmark. Use Your Illusion was an exercise in masturbatory excess.
Keith Law: Although I’m not sure Bob Guccione Jr. has ever really recovered from that.

Kevin w: How do you write?  Locked in office, on couch, music/background noise?
Keith Law: Kitchen table.

Jeff: Hey Klaw, how much is the Reds defense gonna suffer with Moose at 2nd and Castellanos playing any OF position?
Keith Law: And not a true CF on the roster. It’s going to matter. Bauer is going to throw a lot of baseballs into centerfield this year.

Mitchell: Not really a question, but wanted to say after months of holding off, your top 100 was the tipping point for me subscribing to the Athletic. Have to say, damn I’m glad I did it. Some amazing content.
Keith Law: It’s a great site. The app is really strong too.

John: Similar to one of your answers above, I’ve heard rumors that the MLB investigation uncovered six teams engaged in sign stealing beyond the usual cat and mouse game.  Without asking you to name names, do you have a feel for which teams those are?
Keith Law: I think I wrote that rumor, no? I have a list of the six supposed perpetrators. One of them seems totally wrong to me.

Paul: Hey Keith – how was the food on your ATL/Athens trip? Anything 60+? Saw your Five and Ten pic… man I miss that place!
Keith Law: That meal was off the charts good. Also ate at The Grit, The Globe (mostly for beer), 1000 Faces, Zombie Coffee + Donuts, then hit Pho Nam at Krog St when we got back to Atlanta.
Keith Law: oh and Spiller Park at Ponce City Market Sunday morning.

Foster: I seem to recall that you have a fairly strong distaste for the music of Vampire Weekend. Any specific reason for this?
Keith Law: The reason is their music.

Kevin w: Who is your preferred candidate (besides the obvious anyone who can beat trump)?
Keith Law: Warren.

Dr. Bob: According to a guy on NPR yesterday (missed the name), the SARS virus was arrested because the CDC worked with China and other countries to contain it. Trump has cut the CDC budget and banned them from working with China. I am more concerned with Coronavirus than the other diseases that didn’t turn into pandemics.
Keith Law: Excellent point. The gutting of the CDC was going to hurt us at some point. It has just happened sooner rather than later.

Joe: Have you ever considered turning your newsletter into a Patreon or Substack and charging for it (and maybe writing a little more often).  I always enjoy reading it.
Keith Law: I appreciate that, but I don’t think it would be right for me to monetize that. You folks pay for my content at The Athletic and I am compensated that way.

rick: do you use marijuana, thc, cbd products?
Keith Law: I have not. One thing I enjoyed about Pain and Glory was the scene where Antonio Banderas’ character jokes about trying heroin for the first time at age ~60. It me (well, I haven’t tried heroin, but you get the idea).

Dave: For someone like Riley Greene, who you expect to end up in LF, but the Tigers are playing in CF… how much cost is there to keeping him in CF for now?  Are Tigers losing something by not trying to develop him as the best LF he can be? Or is keeping a player as far “left” on the defensive spectrum as possible for as long as possible always worthwhile?  Curious about the underlying philosophy here.
Keith Law: Don’t think there’s a cost there, but there might be one to leaving a player at 2b or C too long due to injury risk.

rick: my mom is a hard-core republican, has been all her life. she said she watched the dem debates with an open mind, but hated how everyone came off in SC. but she said she likes tulsi, and is open to others like klobuchar. even though tulsi is an abhorrent candidate, should i cut my mom a break since she’s actually open to not voting trump?
Keith Law: If she likes Tulsi, then she was probably never voting Democrat in the first place.

Sammy Sosa: Remember when Obama was a socialist for pushing a Republican healthcare plan?
Keith Law: Yep, same one they want to dismantle because a black man pushed it.

Andy: My favorite reaction to your prospect list in the comments and on Twitter was asking if you forgot about x player. Yes, I’m sure after multiple editing processes and months of writing you just didn’t remember about this possible top 150 guy.
Keith Law: Someone asked a year ago if I forgot Luis Garcia (Washington). That person is nowhere to be found after Garcia posted a .280 OBP in AA. So weird, I was sure I’d get an apology.

Matt: Has here been any update on JT Ginn? Are you able to speculate on his draft ranking or is it too early?
Keith Law: He’s off the board until he pitches again.

JJ: As a lifelong resident of Massachusetts, I can tell you that nobody “embraces” Elizabeth Warren.  She’s usually the smartest person in the room, but she just doesn’t connect with voters on a personal level.  She lacks the personal likeability of a Bush 43 or Obama that one needs to be elected president.  To put in in scouting terms, “low ceiling, high floor”.  Her brains make her an acceptable senator, but that’s as far as she’ll go, and it has nothing to do with her gender.
Keith Law: Maybe she should smile more.

Jim: Regarding the “others of note”, I could have sworn they weren’t there for Cleveland and KC; sorry about that. They’re missing for Detroit, Minnesota and Chicago, but I guess not all merit the section.
Keith Law: Sometimes I struggle to get to 20 names worth writing about; sometimes I have closer to 30. But they are all over the team writeups.

Nate: Any hope Jonathan India ends up an above average regular?
Keith Law: Would like to see if he makes better contact this year with a healthy wrist.

Kevin: Just wanted to say first I ended my ESPN+ and switched to Athletic to day to follow you there (your old place is also not friendly to Canadians trying to subscribe, so made it easier).
Keith Law: Thank you. No idea why ESPN wouldn’t consider carving out an Insider-like option for international readers.

Steve: anecdotal, but one reason Warren might not be getting traction as a Bernie alternative among younger voters is the whole “identified as Native American” controversy, which I had thought was a cudgel limited to Trump & the right with “Pocahontas”. When I mentioned my Warren support, my very liberal college junior son and some of his friends dismissed her as another Rachel Dolezal.
Keith Law: Well that’s their error, isn’t it?

Warbiscuit: Besides Tanner Burns are there any other potential draftable Auburn guys you like?
Keith Law: He’s the only one on my list right now.

Matt: Jack Leiter vs. Kumar Rocker. Who are you drafting?
Keith Law: Aren’t they different draft years? 2022 vs 2021?

Guest: Hey Keith – wife and I are doing Asheville, Charleston, Savannah, and Atlanta in a month. Any restos we shouldn’t miss?
Keith Law: Husk in Charleston, Empire State South/The Lawrence in Atlanta. I did not have a great experience at Gunshow in Atlanta but it is a critics’ favorite.

Patrick: Keith, as I fade into this chat, oddball Q. You ever end up talking cooking/music/mutual interests with players/scouts/prospects? Things they know you are interested in?
Keith Law: Scouts, often. Players, just occasionally, although I am always happy to discuss a shared interest with anybody.

Kevin: Maybe one quibble about the prospect list – can you add DOB/age in the future? You do mention it in some write ups, but it would be good to have it right there next to the name.
Keith Law: Good idea. Those were in the headers when I wrote up the list at ESPN so I never had to add them myself.

Robbie: Not sure if you’ll have an article with predictions or if its too early into camp in your opinion, but who would you pick to play in the world series this year. Severino + Paxton news definitely impacts yanks chances slightly at least.
Keith Law: I was down on the Yankees in my predictions last year because I thought their rotation was too injury-prone. I guess I was a year early. They can still make the playoffs with what they have, though, with only one other team in the division actively trying to contend this year.

Joe: Based on the Orioles write up, fair to say that the Schoop, Britton, and Gausman trades were all a bust for Baltimore?  Not one prospect from those trades is on the list.
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: OK, back to writing … I’m nearly done with everything, just one team report left and the back half of the farm system rankings. Thank you all for reading, and for subscribing. The AL West reports will go up Friday, following by the farm rankings Monday and the NL East-Central-West the three days after that. And then we sleep! Enjoy your weekends.

My top 100 prospects ranking goes up on Monday, 2/24, at The Athletic.

Keith Law: Somebody holds the key. Klawchat.

Jabroni: Are we going to get another 100+ prospect ranking this year?
Keith Law: I just answered that at the top of the post.

michael: Hi KLaw – if the giants wanted to look at another will wilson / cosart type of transaction – would trading either belt, samardzija, or johnny cueto (with us paying down a significant amount of the salary) bring any useful prospects back?
Keith Law: I doubt the pitchers would. Maybe Belt but his history of injuries might scare teams off.

a.j.: how would you sort out the detroit tigers infield prospects? who plays where?
Keith Law: I’m trying to figure out what there is to sort out there.

Moe Mentum: Barring injury, Scott Kingery will be in the Phillies’ Opening Day lineup. Care to guess which position he’ll be playing?
Keith Law: If he’s not playing second base, the Phillies have made a mistake.

Sammy Sosa: Should later state voters voter for their personal favorite or, if different, their favorite with a realistic chance at winning the nomination? A contested convention terrifies me for a number of reasons.
Keith Law: I’ll vote for my preferred candidate even if it doesn’t matter by that point here in Delaware.

barbeach: Ordered the new book–looking forward to digging in when it’s ready!  If you were the Yankees, what would you do about Miguel Andujar?
Keith Law: Probably bring him back as a DH and see if you can ease him into a position over time.

Henry: If you’re Manfred, what would you do to contain this Astros mess?
Keith Law: There’s no containing it now. The mistake was trying to downplay it from the start by giving players immunity from suspensions.

Wait, what?: Any inside info on the Theo/Maddon thing? Seems like the more Joe talks the worse he looks (in LAA eyes too.)
Keith Law: I have no idea. Not my department, nor is it something I’d ask about.

Salty: Tim Anderson – does he have the ability to maintain a high BABIP to help lift his AVG to the .280-.300 range, or was last year a total fluke, and he’s likely to head back towards the mid-.200’s going forward?
Keith Law: I think he’ll always be a high BABIP and low BB% guy but is talented enough in other ways to make it work.

Kyle KS: In thinking about Jose Berrios and his arbitration hearing, it’s obvious the team values a relatively small amount of money over the relationship with the player.  My question is how do the players view this?  Is it just part of the business or do they feel slighted?
Keith Law: Part of the business. There’s no evidence that, say, players treated well in pre-arb contracts or in arbitration later give teams discounts.

Mike G: Digging into Lux – I see a couple of golden nuggets in his (I, know SSS) MLB debut that I love – like his 20.9% o-swing & 52.9% hard-hit rate. Then when I compare that and look over his MiLB numbers – I get a Bregman offensive-vibe; plate discipline, sneaky power/speed, and strong hit tool. I know that’s a lofty comp + SSS, but is that the type of player he may grow into over his career? It’s a very neat skillset he possesses, and I’d love to hear your insight. Thanks
Keith Law: I would never draw conclusions like that from a tiny sample of September at bats. There is no way to distinguish the noise in there from the signal.

Gene: Keith, I am a bit of a traditionalist and am at a complete loss for what Manfred hopes to achieve by further diluting the post season with an extra tier of games with sites chosen in a BS game show format. Is the further erosion of the game’s dignity worth a few more shekels?
Keith Law: The owners want the extra cash. Manfred works for the owners. We are all deluding ourselves if we think Manfred will act in the best interests of the game when it is his literal job to act out the interests of the owners.

Epsthoyer: Who has the better chance to make the jump into your top 20, Brennen Davis, Miguel Amaya, Braylin Marquez or Christopher Morel?  Didn’t include Hoerner on this list as I‘m assuming he wont qualify.
Keith Law: For 2021? I’d be surprised if any of them made my overall top 20.

Tom: What do you think of Bryant leading off? Seems like a reasonable decision, as he is a good baserunner (not really steals, but first to third, etc.) Couldn’t be worse than Heyward!
Keith Law: Fine with me.

Jabroni: Your guy Cole Wilcox looked awfully good last weekend.
Keith Law: I’ll see him pitch on Saturday.

James: Royals competitive (above .500) again in 2023? Doesn’t feel like there is a lot coming through the minor league pipeline. The new owner could change that with some FA’s, but I’m not holding my breath.
Keith Law: Pitching will be there, offense will need outside help.

Querulous Quincy: The Rangers are looking at Nick Solak in CF this spring.  What are the odds he can be good enough defensively out there to be a realistic regular CF option for Texas in 2020?
Keith Law: I give that zero chance. I don’t think Solak really has a position, and if he does I don’t think it’s CF.

xxx(yyy): any new recipes that you have made recently that are added to your rotation?
Keith Law: Yes, this lentils & greens on fried bread recipe is the best new thing we’ve made (my girlfriend made it first and we loved it so much we made it again about a week later) in months.

Carter: What woould a plausible Braves package for Arenado include?
Keith Law: One of their top starter prospects/young major league starters, one of their catching prospects, Waters, and a lottery ticket.

Rob: Riley Pint: any reason for hope, or is an MLB cup of coffee even too much to ask for at this point?
Keith Law: The odds are we don’t see him in the majors.

Dylan: What went wrong for white sox prospects at Birmingham? Rutherford, Adolfo, Basabe, Gonzalez, sub .700 ops, Gavin sheets sub .800? Was it a product of the environment (coaching as well, Omar visquel?) or is it indicative of who these prospects really are?
Keith Law: Basabe and Adolfo were hurt. Sheets and Rutherford just aren’t very good.

Darin: If you were commissioner, how would you try to manage the player response to the Astro’s scandal?
Keith Law: Well, I can tell you I wouldn’t be confrontational with reporters. An open approach, admitting that the options before him each had problems, and a full reckoning was likely impossible without cooperation from players that was not forthcoming, would help matters.

Dylan: top prospects list coming out soon?
Keith Law: I feel like I answered that at the top of the post.

Alex: Do you see Mitch Keller as a high 3s ERA guy and sustaining the K rate?
Keith Law: Not without a viable pitch for LHB. Or even to keep RHB from waiting out the breaking ball to sit on the FB.

Jon: How many Astros players make the all star game? Will any players/coaches vote for any of them?
Keith Law: At least one, because that’s the rule.

Kelly: Forgive me if you’ve said previously – do you think the 2017 World Series title should be vacated, and what is the primary reason why?
Keith Law: No. Revising history is absurd. The Astros won; you can’t unwrite that. And frankly I think people who whine about vacating titles are just being crybabies.

DW: Keith, what’s your take on JD Davis? Is he a legitimate masher or BABIP lucky? Should he be a DH? or do you think he can hack it anywhere in the field?
Keith Law: BABIP spike. Could play first base but the Mets have two better options there.

Ben: What was your main takeaway from last night’s debate?
Keith Law: My main takeaway from last night’s debate is that I didn’t watch it.

EL: Where does calling the trophy a “piece of metal” rank in all time baseball commissioner gaffes?
Keith Law: Not that high, because Selig was commish for a long time.

Mark: I am subscribing to the athletic just because of you
Keith Law: I appreciate that. You’re about to get a lot of words for your money.

Mark: Pecota has the Mets winning the NL East this year with 88 wins. Buying it?
Keith Law: No.

Eric: If you were gm of a club ans found about a clearly illegal sign stealing scheme what would you do
Keith Law: I’d report it to my owner first, and then to the league. I suppose there’s a risk the owner says not to report, but I would feel obligated to do so, even at the cost of my job.
Keith Law: I also recognize that 1) most people wouldn’t do that and 2) it is easy for me to say this when I am not actually in that position.

Jeff T: Does Jonathan Stiever have mid-rotation upside?
Keith Law: You’ll see in the team reports.

Mike: Do you learn new songs by ear or specific website to find the chords ?
Keith Law: Either. Depends on the song and how patient I am.

XBL: XBL similar what XFL done with NFL,- Xtreme baseball league, its time for new league? how much start up cost to make new league because Manfred’s incompetence as commissioner of MLB and no punishment from players? XBL – stereoid and stealing signs  are allowed. Hitting 500 feet homeruns= scoring 3 points instead 1.  You should be Commissioner XBL Keith? thoughts?
Keith Law: No, thank you.

UH: Thoughts on Balazovic?  What is ceiling?
Keith Law: You’ll see the answer to that in the top 100.

xxx(yyy): about how long do you typically spend “on the ground” in Spring Training? Are you looking for anything particular?
Keith Law: Not too much time. I find it’s not that productive for me until the minor league games start.

Will: Keith, will you be doing less MLB Draft coverage now at the Athletic?
Keith Law: No, it’ll be the same.

Bob: I think Luis Urias will be a .320 hitter, is that a reasonable projection?
Keith Law: No, that’s not a reasonable projection for any hitter, really. Do you know offhand how many guys hit .320 last year?
Keith Law: I’ll answer that in a minute.

Ben: Franklin Perez is supposedly healthy and looking pretty good early this spring. Even when he was healthy with HOU, he really never had thrown nearly as many innings as you would think for a pitcher AA. With that in mind, and his last two years of lost time, what does a successful, healthy 2020 look like for Franklin Perez?
Keith Law: I’ll believe that when I see it.

Adam: Hey Keith. Did you watch the Academy Awards?? If so, any thoughts on the winners or anything else that you found entertaining or lame about the show.
Keith Law: I did. Thrilled that Parasite won, and that the audience reacted so positively to it. Thought Wiig/Rudolph were the best presenters, the Martin/Rock duologue went on too long but had its moments, the Cats bit was really funny (if a bit mean), the Janelle Monae number’s honoring films that weren’t nominated was clever, Zellweger’s speech was cringeworthy, and the fact that people of color are apparently allowed to be the show’s entertainment but not to win the awards is appalling.

Mike: Does the 2020 Draft still shape up as a “Top 4” or is it too soon to day that?  Asking as a Blue Jays (#5) fan.
Keith Law: Not a “top 4” draft. That’s a false dichotomy.

HH: How much movement is there between college coaches to the minor leagues? You’ve identified programs that almost always improve players (go Vandy!) – do teams ever throw a bunch of cash at such a staff to develop their guys in the low minors?
Keith Law: It’s happening more now than it has in my career, for the better, I think.

Kevin: Shouldn’t teams like the Red Sox or other big market teams try to “buy” prospects by taking back bad contracts? Seems like a no-brainer to me
Keith Law: The Giants did this.

Lee: What kind of ceiling does Alex Verdugo have?  A lot of Sox fans are pretty down on the Betts deal but seems to me that Verdugo could be pretty valuable over the next 5 years.
Keith Law: I think what you saw from him in 2019 over a full season – assuming his back injury is resolved – is about right.

AndrewB: Hey Keith, I appreciate all that you do to keep shining a light on players accused of/guilty of DV and not allowing the deeds to fade into the background, as happens far too often. My question is: What’s an appropriate punishment for such crimes? We all know that outright banning for life will never happen, so what’s a next-best option that will feel in any way satisfactory as we watch awful people make millions upon millions of dollars and be feted with adulation?
Keith Law: Domestic violence suspensions shouldn’t be about feeling satisfactory, although I think they often are aimed at that end. They should be about prevention, preferably done in tandem with evidence-based education programs for (in MLB’s case) the athletes themselves.

Aaron G: Jack Leiter…I know it was just one start but whoa. Possible 1st round in 2022?
Keith Law: He was a first-round talent last year if he would have signed. Nothing has changed.

Steve: There have been talks of Tatis moving to CF if they get Lindor.  Would that be wise? Even if they don’t get Lindor, is Tatis a SS long term?
Keith Law: No. Tatis is a SS. Wastes his talent to move him.

Todd: better chance at making the Yankees rotation? Garcia or Schmidt?
Keith Law: Schmidt is probably the safer bet even though Garcia is closer to the majors.

Dylan: Ed Howard is a local kid, part of the white sox intercity program (ACE), could they look to take him at 11?
Keith Law: Maybe, but the fact that he’s local should have absolutely no bearing on their choice. You don’t get extra points for winning with local players.

Colin: Help me understand why you say saves don’t matter. The best pitcher in the bullpen will be getting the save, so obviously you can use it to show who the best relievers are. What am I missing?
Keith Law: “The best pitcher in the bullpen will be getting the save” is a false statement. I assume you’re trolling.

Matt: Evan White has a bit of a confusing profile for a 1B, but seemed to start hitting the ball with some authority last year. Do you see him as a guy who could ever hit 30 HRs, or is he just never going to hit for that much power?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on that. I think 20 homers with a solid OBP and ++ defense.

HH: Since rule changes are in the air: what’s one rule in baseball (on the field) you’d like to change, and how?
Keith Law: Aside from the automatic strike zone? I’d like to see an end to hitters who lean over the plate getting first base when HBP.

Evan H.: Do you see 2020 lhp Dax Fulton still going in the 1st round despite TJ surgery?
Keith Law: No.

Todd: The arrogance of the Astros players, Correa and Altuve especially, is really embarassing. They both seem so out of touch with what happended or just truly dont care.
Keith Law: They don’t feel remorse. There is no guilt there, and trying to shame them isn’t going to work.

Tbang: Is there any shot for Florial or is he just not good
Keith Law: I have never thought he was good enough to make my top 100. (And I got pilloried for it by Yankee fans two years ago.)

Marc: Do you think Cole Tucker can be the Pirates answer at SS, and would you move Kevin Newman to 2B?
Keith Law: Other way around.

Matt: I’d be curious to get your thoughts on Jose Urquidy. While the ceiling may not be high, he seems like a SP3/4 type already, and that’s what you dream a lot of your pitching prospects become. Despite that, I don’t get the sense that he’s viewed as a top 100 prospect. Do you think he is worthy?
Keith Law: I won’t answer the top 100 part now but I agree he’s a fourth or fifth starter right now. He might be a five-and-dive type but isn’t that what fifth starters are?

John: One of the arguments I’ve seen for the proposed playoff format is that it holds fans’ interest later into the season because they have a chance at a playoff spot. I don’t buy that basic premise. Teams maintain fan interest by being good and fun to watch. A boring, mediocre 80 win team that backs into the 7th playoff spot isn’t any more fun to watch than an 80 win team that misses the playoffs.
Keith Law: I agree. Someone – Sheehan? Calcaterra? – pointed out that this format would have put 79 win teams in the playoffs in the last few years. Hard pass, thanks.

John: Is anything exciting happening at The Athletic on Monday 2/24?
Keith Law: Nothing. I’m taking the day off.

Michael: Fact or fiction.  Most teams are cheating in some way similar to the Astros and Red Sox?
Keith Law: Most, no. Many, yes.
Keith Law: I have heard, without real confirmation, that at least six teams were caught doing something. One of those teams … let’s just say I believe it, but would require evidence to say it, if that makes sense.

Gary: Thanks for chatting Keith. I’m curious about your thoughts on college players and if you think there is a maturity they gain vs HS kids who come out and seem to stumble or have less success. Do you see a large benefit for kids to go to college instead of turning pro?
Keith Law: I do not. For some kids, yes, but for most, no.

Uli Jon: Am I an insular left coaster or does that lukewarm piece of toast that was on the stage last night have any chance of beating Trump? Yes, the money helps but at a certain point he has to open his mouth and that seems…not so good.
Keith Law: I did see the clip of Warren eviscerating Bloomberg on the NDAs, and, well, bye, Mike, you DINO.

Jim: Does Carter Kieboom have enough thump to be an asset at 3b?
Keith Law: If he ends up a regular or more at 3b, it’ll be by hitting .300+ with lots of doubles, but not with big HR power. He’s just not that kind of hitter.

Tbang: Do you think Manfred does anything else about the astros or do you think he rides it out
Keith Law: What more can he do? I think his hands were partly tied by the owners, and he tangled them up completely by handing out immunity to players.

Michael: No snark. When the Betts trade happened there were at least seven Athletic articles on it.  At ESPN you were often the only one. Do you get worried about being lost in the noise over there?
Keith Law: Nope, i can see stats on my articles and y’all are still reading (for which I thank you).

Will: Sneak peak for next week?  Has Sixto Sanchez moved significantly since your MidSeasob Top 50?  Up?  Down?  I cant get a good read on his projection.  Thanks
Keith Law: You will see the answer next week.

Tommie from Nebraska: Hey keith, when does your next top 100 come out? Thanks.
Keith Law: 2021.

Dark Johnny: Will Michael Baumann be in the O’s rotation by 2021-22?
Keith Law: Reliever for me.

Lee: After the last 3 years, how can it be that there’s a good chance that Donald Trump will be re-elected?  Even if you’re a conservative that likes the policies he’s put into place, why would you be accepting of a complete immoral lunatic in charge of our nuclear arsenal.  Has 50% of our country lost their minds?
Keith Law: Only takes about 30-35% of the electorate to re-elect him. I think there’s a realistic chance of it, in part because of the Democrats’ general incompetence as a party, and in part because a lot of Americans secretly agree with an Administration that pushes racist, Islamophobic, anti-science, anti-environment, anti-LGBT, and anti-woman policies.

Greg: Huff not getting an invite to the Giants 10 year celebration- Good thing, or great thing?
Keith Law: Right thing. Also, you get no points if you correctly predicted that gun-masturbating ding-dong would bring up the First Amendment in his response.

Dick Diver: Considering your upcoming labor focus with the Athletic, how do you feel about opiod testing for players? I am not sure if you have commented before, but while we do want to prevent use and tragedy, it seems a bit nanny state-ish no?
Keith Law: Yes. I don’t think players should be tested for drugs of abuse unless they have a prior incident.

Todd: Thoughts on Yankees lower farm arms Yoendrys Gomez and Alexander Vizcaino? Is TJ Sikkema a legit lefty reliver prospect?
Keith Law: They’ll be in the Yankees’ report. I’ll tell you now, since I said this previously, Sikkema is a starter prospect.

xxx(yyy): The odds that Jeff Lunhow has a GM job again are: 0% – 1% – 2% to 25% – 25% to 50% – 50% to 75% – 75% to 100%?
Keith Law: Zero.

Henry: I know each team operates differently but do most GM’s have to get approval from their owners to make trades or get free agents even when they’re operating under a standard operating budget?
Keith Law: Yes.

John: Long term Plesac or Civale?
Keith Law: Plesac. I like both.

Idaho Nuke: What do you think an appropriate punishment for Astros players should be?
Keith Law: Any player at the center of the scheme should get the same suspension Hinch and Luhnow got, if not more.
Keith Law: They were just there when it happened; no one has accused either of them of contributing to the scheme. So why do they get lengthy suspensions but the players who actually did this shit get off scot free?

Eric: Finally got to play Wingspan for the first time recently and loved it.  Thanks for your great review of it last year.  I just purchased the European expansion and was wondering if you’ve played that one yet?
Keith Law: I haven’t, mostly because I feel like the original has so much replay value.

Alex: Just got an airfryer.  Do you have one?  Any good recipies to share?
Keith Law: I don’t. When I fry food I use oil, because that’s what it means to fry something.

Greg: Give that MLB still has its anti-trust exemption and given that the MLB commissioner is now basically a cudgel for the owners and has not been a “steward of the game” since Faye Vincent… Should there be some kind of special case where a non-owner/congressional body picks or vets any new MLB commissioner?
Keith Law: How does that work? MLB is a private business. Do you want the government picking the CEOs of other private businesses?

Pei: What do you think of the Altuve walk-off strange behavior controversy? Seems to me that the evidence of any buzzer stuff is flimsy at best but it is apparent to me that he probably wanted to hide something (that isn’t a tattoo)
Keith Law: Not a fan of conspiracy theories.

Josh in DC: Do you think it could EVER be plausible for fans — facing a situation like Boston’s fans in this off-season — to organize a boycott, however minor, that would get an owner’s attention? 40,000 unsold tickets, with $100 of spending per fan, is $4 million in lost revenues.
Keith Law: No, it’ll never happen. I’m not sure the typical owner would even notice $4 million in lost revenues.

Altuve’s Lower Back Tattoo: Of Noelvi Marte, Orelvis Martinez and Erick Pena, who’s the best player 2023 and beyond
Keith Law: One is on my top 100.

Kretin: How bad is the injury to JT Ginn?
Keith Law: We have no idea yet, but 1) it was a high-effort delivery in HS and 2) this is another example of why HS pitchers drafted high should take the money.
Keith Law: I don’t even think Mississippi State misused him – it’s just that pitchers get hurt, even when handled carefully, even if their mechanics are (supposedly) “clean.”

Keith too: You ever watch WWE, UFC or Boxing?
Keith Law: LOL.

Rocker: 1) Austin Martin
2 Spencer Torkelson
3 Nick Gonzales
4 Emerson Hancock   This my rankings in baseball draft 2020? which one has highest upside?
Keith Law: Gonzales isn’t in that group if we’re talking upside. Martin definitely has the most upside of the group, and he’d be 1 on my draft board right now, but that doesn’t necessarily make him the best player.

Vincent Adultman: Do you think Eziquiel Duran can stay at 2B? If he can’t, can he move to third?
Keith Law: He can stay at 2b.

Dark Johnny: Any chance Frankie Montas breaks out to be a frontline starter?
Keith Law: Never saw him as a starter.

Don D: Keith, I’d love to hear your take on Jordan Walker, I’ve seen some HUGE comparisons but others have him pegged as a mid-1st. What do you think of him?
Keith Law: Have not seen him yet but I do not hear mid-first on him at all.

Dark Johnny: Can you be a good MLB starter without a viable changeup in the arsenal?
Keith Law: IMO, no. Changeup or splitter.

Eric: Would you vote for Bernie Sanders against Donald Trump in November?
Keith Law: Yes.

UU: Do you ever wonder if these chats are like a few100 people just using different names?
Keith Law: I can see it’s not, but even so, that would be fine.

Lane: Do you always read the intro?
Keith Law: I do. I may not read the middle, though.

Deke: If you’re Texas, what are you doing with center field this season?
Keith Law: Probably passing a law to eliminate abortion rights.
Keith Law: Oh, did you mean the Rangers?

addoeh: What are your Girl Scout cookie rankings?  For me, 1. Samoas 2. Tagalongs  3. Thin Mints (especially frozen).
Keith Law: Samoas and Tagalongs are 1-2 and that’s it. I don’t eat any of the others. I can eat an entire sleeve of Thin Mints and feel like I didn’t eat anything, which I think is really weird.

Bill: Will you be doing an extra (or just early) chat on Monday? I believe that’s when you top 100 prospect rankings comes out.
Keith Law: Not Monday but some time next week. I will still be finishing the NL West org reports Monday and also I have some life stuff to deal with that I’ve been putting off to finish the prospect rankings.

Jay: Klaw, I get the sense that “socialism” is going to be the scare word of 2020 and despite the average American not understanding what it means, it will cost Bernie the election. I much prefer Warren but I don’t see her winning the nomination. How do you feel?
Keith Law: It’s been a scare word since the 1980s, most Americans do not know what it means, and I don’t know if even Bernie is an actual socialist. The fact that so many Americans glom on to “socialist” as a pejorative term for Democratic candidates is a huge indictment of public education in this country.

Matt: Fwiw, I’ve really dug the European Wingspan expansion. It adds a bunch of cards that increase interaction between the players, which is maybe my one (minor) complaint with the original.
Keith Law: Good to know – thank you.

Rob Manfred: Even if I suspended some of the players, I would lose each and every case with the arbritrator, true or false ?
Keith Law: Mass suspensions would probably have to be negotiated with the union ahead of the announcement. In that case, there wouldn’t be arbitration.

John: If Kumar Rocker was eligible to be drafted in the upcoming draft, would he be in consideration for the top pick?
Keith Law: No.

Ken: In all of these article concerning the Mets and their potential sale of the team it just seems to be reported as fact the the Mets lose $50m annually. 1) This is B.S. right? 2) Why do reporters go along with it so easily?
Keith Law: 1) Right. 2) Because it’s easy. Same reason so many writers uncritically quoted that bought-and-paid-for marketing report that claimed Miller Park generated over $2 billion for the city of Milwaukee, which is pure bullshit.

Guest: ATTENTION EVERYONE:  Don’t let the 2/24 Top 100 Release (on the Athletic) overshadow the 4/21 Book Release (where ever books are sold)
Keith Law: Good point, thank you.

Caleb: Do we ever get to a point where strikeouts go down and average goes back up?  Or has that ship sailed?
Keith Law: Sure. Raise the bottom of the strike zone.

Jeff: Will you be publishing the “usual” supplements to your top 100? Breakthrough players, top ten by org, etc.
Keith Law: Yes, just missed list + org reports (20+ players per) for all 30 teams.

Jason: When you complete your top-100 lists, how often are you surprised at where players end up compared to where you thought they would be at the beginning?
Keith Law: Never surprised, but it does change a lot.

Sam: Shed Long, good enough to be an everyday 2B?
Keith Law: No. Poor defender.

BrittanyMars: Why are circle-changes and palmballs rare/going extinct?
Keith Law: Circle-changes are going extinct? I don’t think that’s true.

Ken: Is there anyone you wouldn’t vote for over Trump? If the Dems actually managed to nominate someone more vile than Trump would you just sit that one out or actually vote for the lesser of two evil? I assume you’d just go 3rd party at that point.
Keith Law: Probably would sit that one out.

Sammy Sosa: Last night Bernie — who isn’t even a socialist — was called a communist by Bloomberg and Mayor Pete talked up Denmark as the best place for the American dream. Do these people even listen to themselves?
Keith Law: No, they don’t. Or they do, but they don’t care, as long as the comments land.

Jay: Is O’Neil Cruz the most unique prospect you’ve covered? Is he the Pirate MiLBer with the highest ceiling AND lowest floor?
Keith Law: He’s up there – he would be the biggest shortstop in MLB history. Only Joel Guzman has been that height or taller and played shortstop, and of course he was terrible (at short, and in general).

Alex: Thanks for the San Diego restaurant picks a few chats ago (I went to Rovino and Mission).   Is it too early to evaluate at the Mike Elias” player development in the minors so far (pitching seems to have gotten better; hard to say with hitters)
Keith Law: Yes, just one year so far.

Bob: You are absolutely correct about Thin Mints!!
Keith Law: Thank you. Thin Mints are only good when crushed and swirled into ice cream.

Michael: Bloomberg funded Toomey in 2016 and GOP house candidates in 2018.  What is he doing here?
Keith Law: Hence, DINO.

Idaho Nuke: Why does Bernie keep mentioning Denmark when they are capitalist?
Keith Law: “Capitalism with a strong social safety net” doesn’t have a great ring to it, but that’s what Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands offer, and it is the kind of economy in which I want to live. Free enterprise can still exist and thrive in such an environment, but people who are less fortunate, who are born with disabilities, who fall ill, etc. would still be protected. There but for the grace of God, people.
Keith Law: OK, I have to get back to writing. Thank you all for stopping by for the chat. If you haven’t heard, my top 100 prospects will appear on Monday, February 24th, at the Athletic, for subscribers only. Enjoy your weekends!

For The Athletic subscribers, I wrote about the Starling Marte trade, and looked at the Reds’ moves and chances of contention for 2020. Over at Paste, I reviewed Hadara, a 7 Wonders-like civ-builder with card-drafting and lots of simultaneous actions for fast play.

Keith Law: Wait in silence while planning your attack. Klawchat.

Bruce: Sam Hilliard played well last year though it was a small sample size. I was impressed the way he hung in there against Hader in a late season game and took him deep the other way. Does he have the chance to be a solid regular or maybe more?
Keith Law: Definitely has the tools to be no worse than a solid regular, but I do think the swing and miss, esp on breaking stuff, will be an issue in him getting there.

Bryan: Over/Unders on Oscar Mercado this season. 345 OBP, 18 HR, 26 SB.
Keith Law: I’m a big Mercado fan but I would go under, over, under, although HR totals for 2020 are impossible to predict until we see what the ball is like.

Justin: Know you’ve been a fan in the past, are we beyond the point of Gregory Polanco being productive? Would a good half-season net some trade value at the deadline for PIT?
Keith Law: Let’s see if him getting fully healthy this year gets him back on track.

Laurel: Does Jon Gray need a new home?
Keith Law: I think he would benefit from one, but “need” is too strong.

addoeh: Did you compare Skyline Chili to Olive Garden or something?  Reds fans have their torches and pitchforks out because you offered a measured opinion on their offseason.
Keith Law: It was kind of embarrassing to see how those fans conducted themselves over a piece that I don’t think was harsh at all. I got a similar reaction 13 months ago when I said the Wood/Puig deal was awful.

Mike: Can Justus Sheffield still turn into a mid-rotation piece? What are your expectations for him this season?
Keith Law: If his velocity is back to at least the low 90s, touching 94-95, in spring training, I’d say yes.

Paul: With spring training a little over a week away, how does not having a manager impact the Red Sox? How big a role does the manager play in developing the ST plans and practice schedule?
Keith Law: Not a big issue yet. I don’t think it matters at all till the games start.

Andy: Would Verdugo, Ruiz, and a couple non top 100 prospects get Betts? I’d rather the Dodgers hold on to Gonsolin for a 1 year rental.
Keith Law: No. You’re trying to trade the prospects you don’t like as much, instead of looking at it from Boston’s perspective, where they are fielding offers from other clubs too.

Jon: When is the correct time to trade Josh Bell? Boras guy, they’re obviously not going to re-sign him. With the DH coming to the NL, does it make sense to hold him until next offseason when more teams could have a use for him? Does he fetch two top-100 guys?
Keith Law: Still three years to FA, right? So I’d say there isn’t any urgency yet. See when the market emerges – 1b/dh types haven’t been valued that highly recently so they really need a contender with prospects to have a sudden need at that position.

Seth: Excited for Jesus Sanchez this season? Does the change in development team positively or negatively impact his future?
Keith Law: Neither.

Nick: Lost season for Urias already with the hamate surgery? He’ll certainly be able to play after his recovery but won’t that sap any true power reads until ’21?
Keith Law: Power was the least important aspect of his game, so as long as he plays, I don’t think so.

Andy: In the Betts to LA scenarios, I see people putting Bellinger in CF. Who do you think is a better CF, Betts or Bellinger?
Keith Law: Bellinger.

Arnold: Hey Keith, what are your thoughts on the Bryant grievance ruling? Seemed like a foregone conclusion since the rules were set up in a way teams could exploit it. Can the union do something in the next negotiation to address the issue and does the Cubs handling of the situation increase the odds of Bryant leaving in free agency and/or the Cubs trading him before them figuring Bryant won’t come back voluntarily?
Keith Law: I agree it was a foregone conclusion. It’s a hard issue to regulate, because proving service time manipulation is hard (even though we all see it), and if you try to move the thresholds teams will just alter how they manipulate the time. My suggestion at the time they did this to KB was to allow for a one-year right of first refusal option when a player was at 6.000 on the dot, so that at least teams would lose some disincentive to call up players to debut on Opening Day. That doesn’t solve the problem, but I think it’s a bit more fair to players, and gets the Kris Bryants of the world into the majors two weeks sooner.

Bruce: Will Dustin May be in the Dodgers rotation by the All Star break?
Keith Law: He’ll be on the staff by then.

Leo: Adam Frazier’s name popped up a lot as a possible trade candidate during the Winter Meetings. Was there any substance to that and should he return some value? Maybe a handful of 10-20 guys in an org?
Keith Law: No idea about substance but sure, a non-top ten prospect or two would make sense.

Kevin: Planning on watching the Super Bowl this weekend? It’s more of a social activity than a football game anyway. Anything interesting on the menu??
Keith Law: Probably not; we might go see a movie instead.

Jon: Keith, why do so many people in chats, both in yours and others around the web, suggest ridiculous one-sided trade proposals? And why respond to them?
Keith Law: My guess: most of these people don’t think their proposals are ridiculous. It’s not easy to value players when you don’t work inside the sport, and they are basing their opinions off the opinions of others (who may, in turn, be basing their opinions on those of others).
Keith Law: I respond to a tiny fraction of the proposals that come my way.

Luke: Matt Carpenter going to return to relevancy this season? Not sure what went wrong with him.
Keith Law: He got old. Time is a motherfucker.

Adam: I’m asking this specifically about Jasson Dominguez, but it applies to any prospect his age. How do teams balance focusing on his development as a player — i.e., better technique in the outfield — with cultural and general maturity that also has to go on at that age? It seems like an enormous task that would require a lot of cash and effort.
Keith Law: It is an enormous task and not every team does it well. Some teams prefer to target players who might be more mature, or speak English already, or have more education. Some have more extensive development programs for such players, and are doing things like building dorms at their spring training sites (e.g., Cleveland) to give players housing and feed them and just generally keep an eye on them.

dan: Do you see any common factors in prospects that in prior years you have projected highly who haven’t succeeded or in prospects you’ve rated fairly low who do well?  Is there a type of player, position, age, organization or the like which is a factor on missing either high or low?
Keith Law: If I notice any sort of bias like that in my evaluations, I change my process. Otherwise I’ll just keep making the same mistakes.

Nick: If/when O’neil Cruz moves off shortstop, can he make it work in center?
Keith Law: Right field is the floor. I’d try him at third first.

Gunther Centralperk: I asked the Kershaw/CH question (in a poorly-worded way) in last week’s chat. He’s been quoted as saying it’s “tough” for him to throw one and he “doesn’t have very big hands.” You said there were no mechanical issues, so it’s just a feel thing for him then? I’m trying to understand why a CH would/could be tough for him when he so quickly developed an excellent SL in 2010.
Keith Law: Maybe he has never found a grip that works? You do need to hold the ball in one of a few ways to make a changeup effective.

Mark: A report in the SD paper said the Pads / Sox have discussed either Lucchesi or Quantrill and either Neylor or Margot, plus Myers and a top prospect (but not in their top 5) for Betts. Assuming that’s accurate, what prospect would consider including – Baez? Morejon?
Keith Law: I’d include either of those in a deal for Betts. I’ve heard from multiple teams that their internal defensive metrics rate Margot very highly in center.

Steve: What do you know about Luis Rojas? Right hire by the Mets?
Keith Law: Great hire. Lot of managing experience, loved by players, data savvy, works well with R&D folks. They accidentally got it right.

Brian B: Hi Keith.  Thanks for moving to a platform where this Canadian can read your work.  I’m curious whether Outs Above Average has changed your outlook on any players?  As a Blue Jays fan, I was unsurprised by the Vlad Jr. (last place) ranking, but pleasantly surprised by Bo (maybe can stay at short?) and Biggio (not your favourite, I know, but perhaps there is something there?)
Keith Law: I like it a lot for outfielders. For infielders it’s incomplete, per comments from Mike Petriello, so I’m not using it.

Mark: Think Kris Bryant gets moved soon, now that his grievance has been decided?
Keith Law: The last I’d heard the Cubs hadn’t discussed him much with anyone, so I would still guess no.

Ben: Any favorite places to eat in Nashville? I’ve never been but may have a few days there soon.
Keith Law: Tons. Tremendous food city. Search this site for nashville (search bar up top) and you’ll find my posts.

Scott U: With the Astros hiring of Dusty Baker, how will that affect the development and 2020 playing time of the team’s up and coming young players like Kyle Tucker, Forrest Whitley, Jose Urquidy et al?
Keith Law: I don’t think it will. One, Baker was better at handling pitchers at each stop after the Cubs. Two, they’re going to need those players you mentioned to play and do well to win, so I am not worried that he might choose not to play a player who’s helpful – I’m not sure why he’d even do that at this point – because they don’t have great alternatives available.

Jim : How screwed is our republic if the Republicans vote no on witnesses? Corruption floodgates open wide, right?
Keith Law: You have to hope enough voters see this for what it is – and the media reports it accurately – that something changes in November. Otherwise, yes, we’re likely to see corruption expand to unprecedented levels.

Ian: Do people realize that saying that it is too soon to talk about Kobe’s rape case in the context of his legacy is the same thing as people (conservatives?) saying it is too soon to talk about gun control after a school shooting?
Keith Law: They don’t realize it. And now is exactly the time to talk about Kobe’s history, including the rape accusation and public treatment (including by the media) of his accuser. There is no  such thing as a “former rapist.”

Jason: Keith, are you troubled by the actions at the Washington Post in suspending their reporter for posting a link to an article (but now backtracking) and their reasons for suspending her especially with hundreds of reporters there supporting her and now with what has come to light about how in 2008, they were basically fawning over Kobe and divided the newsroom then?
Keith Law: Yes, and I contacted one of the editors involved in the decision to voice my support for Sonmez. They reversed the suspension, but it speaks to a poor process that catered to sentiment rather than reason.

Debra: Is George Valera a possible top 100 candidate or do we need another year of actual production at the plate before that happens?
Keith Law: Eventually, yes, he has that kind of upside.

Marcus: I have really hit it off with a person we hired for our company, but technically I am a superior on the chain of command. Others have remarked to me that they can tell this person likes me and I like this person for sure, but last thing I want is to make her feel uncomfortable if that is not the case. How do I go about things? Wait for her to say something to me or be honest about it?
Keith Law: I’d ask a lawyer – or HR – but boy does that sound like a terrible idea to me.

JJ: Soft class next year for the HOF.  How does this affect Curt Schilling’s candidacy?  Are there really voters so wishy-washy, that they won’t vote against Curt because of his racist tweets, but will change their minds if they have no one better to vote for?  That’s just bizarre.
Keith Law: I think he gets in next year.

Justalittleoutside: Hi Keith – If the robo-ump idea prospers, will that benefit hitters like Aaron Judge who (anecdotally) seems to get a fair number of pitches outside the strike zone called on him?
Keith Law: Such a change won’t affect all hitters and pitchers equally, but I’d like to see some data to support a claim that it will help/harm a specific player.

Dark Johnny: Does Tyler Anderson have a chance to start in SF?  Can he be a back end starter now that he’s out of COL?
Keith Law: I would lean no.

Marani: Matt Harvey’s still a FA.  What kind of contract would be reasonable for him?  I remember him as being the toast of NYC just a few years ago, but he’s been pretty awful the last 3+ years, and I’m wondering if anyone would give him more than a Triple A contract at this point.
Keith Law: Triple-A with invitation to spring training. He has to show he can get someone out at this point. It’s been too long.

Ryan: Have you noticed yourself getting more aggressive in ranking J2 signings earlier than you perhaps would have in the past?
Keith Law: No.

Matt: What would you guess is holding up a Betts to Dodgers trade at this point?
Keith Law: Probably the two sides not agreeing on the players involved. Just a guess.

Dave : Would you vote for Helton in the future? Crosses the 60 war mark on Baseball-Ref
Keith Law: I didn’t this year, even though I had spots open. He’s just short for me. I reserve the right to change my mind on any votes, though.

Jeff: More productive year in second year with new team ? Bryce or Manny Machado ?
Keith Law: I think both will be better, but Machado has more room to improve right now.

James: Have you seen Hjelle of the SF Giants pitch?  And how does his size impact his effectiveness against hitters?
Keith Law: In college, yes. Would love to see him extend a bit more out front to take advantage of the height, but he’s already deceptive and last year his velocity crept up a half-grade or more.

Lester: Do you prefer Cartel or Press for coffee in AZ ?
Keith Law: Cartel. Also love crepe bar, which uses local roasters and has a real barista on site.

King Felix: any chance for me making the Braves 25 man, or am I toast ?
Keith Law: I’m very pessimistic given your stuff the last year-plus.

Dave : I’ve been reading your film reviews, thank you for those. Is Parasite your best pic choice?
Keith Law: Yes, it’s still my #1 for 2019. I haven’t seen Uncut Gems, Jojo Rabbit, or Ford Vroom Ferrari.

Scott U: After Jorge Soler’s breakout season in 2019, how much regression, if any, will we see in 2020?
Keith Law: Some for sure. How much may depend on the Happy Fun Ball. He always had talent but don’t we have to be suspicious of any hitter whose big breakout came in 2019?

Pat D: Now that he’s got two years under the belt, do you have any opinions on Boone as a manager?  It seems like he’s done a good job, but he’s also obviously been blessed with loads of talent.
Keith Law: That’s fair. He inherited a very good team and they’ve been very good.

Lester: Shluld the Indians cash in on a Lindor trade now or at deadline?
Keith Law: Now, if they get an acceptable offer.

Trey: 2019 GDP number released : 2.3%. That’s nominal growth, slightly better than tepid, and def not as Trump markets “best economy in the history of the US.” So, why can’t dems capitalize on 1) lowest corporate taxes in history, 2) close to lowest income taxes on wealthy, 3) lowest capital gains taxes in history, 4) absurdly low ongoing federal fund rates, and yet…..only 2.3% gdp? GOP economic claim that they help the middle class is laughable, by ‘almost’ any metric.
Keith Law: I’d really like to see a change in how the media – and many universities – discuss macroeconomics. Things that the econ world long believed would lead to economic growth just haven’t in the last twenty years. Some have led to modest growth but income inequality; some haven’t led to growth at all. Anyway, whoever gets the Democratic nomination should campaign at least in part on the economy.

Mike @ Seattle: As a Mariners fan, this is the most excited I’ve ever been to see your prospects package. That said and based on the little I know, I found it odd they put so much faith in White as a first baseman that doesn’t have a ton of power. What did you think of that contract? Has he turned a corner at the plate, where he’s more than just elite defense at 1b?
Keith Law: He’s a solid regular, at least. I think there’s hard contact that might lead to power down the road.

Harrisburg Hal: My sons (youngest 8) really enjoy Azul.  While I’m not a programmer, it would seem an easy game to replicate as an app.  Do you understand the process why some games become apps, and others do not?
Keith Law: Licensing.

Mason : Hey Klaw, Mike Hazen has done a really good job of walking the line of competing and still building the farm system. amazing what happens when you get a real GM
Keith Law: I wrote that the other day. I completely agree.

JP: do you anticipate the Red Sox losing draft picks for the Alex Cora situation?
Keith Law: Yes, since Houston did.

Louis: Dusty seems like a bad fit. Astros are high tech and Dusty is as old school as it gets. Didn’t he once say guys who walk but can’t run just clog the basepaths
Keith Law: He did, although I think that was 15+ years ago.

Brian: Betts is obviously great but does he provide that much surplus value given that it is 1 year and close to $30 million? Are the calculations different when talking about a 7 WAR guy?
Keith Law: If those 7 WAR put you into the playoffs, then yeah, he would.

James: How good do you think the dodger rotation minus Ryu and Dick Mtn is? With the Kenta Maeda situation, Stripling being underwhelming, And the youth of Gonsolin and May, do you think it was a colossal failure not to get any SP help thus offseason?
Keith Law: They’ve held on to their young arms for a while now; I believe it was in part a bet on those guys being ready to fill out a rotation around this time.

Nick: No question, just a recommendation. I saw your review of American Factory, and thought I would recommend One Child Nation, which is streaming on Prime Video. Excellent documentary about China’s one child policy. Thanks for the great work.
Keith Law: Will check it out once I get through my Oscar list. Still too many films to see. I did watch Pain & Glory last night – Banderas was outstanding.

Jeff Campbell: I don’t get why the Dodgers wouldn’t give up their two “top” prospect, plus more, for one year of Mookie Betts.  It’s almost a cinch that at least one of those two will be a bust — that’s just the way it is with prospects — and Mookie would make them the prohibitive favorite.  Flags fly forever (even in Houston).
Keith Law: Aren’t they already the favorites to win the NL West?

Dan: Are you legitimately concerned about the Coronavirus or do you think it’s being a bit blown up in the news due to its quasi-mysterious status? At this point, 8000 people in the US have already died from the regular old flu this season, so that remains a much larger worry for me.
Keith Law: It’s Ebola all over again. Get your flu shot, and get your kids fully vaccinated, and if you’re of the right age for other shots get those too. Stop worrying about the disease that isn’t even here yet – and, so far, doesn’t seem to be as serious as SARS or MERS, although that could change – and worry about the ones that are.

JP: when with your prospect package start to drop at The Athletic?
Keith Law: February 24th.

Alex: Heading to San Diego next week for sun– do you have any new recommendations of restaurants to try  (Juniper & Ivy, Crack Shack for chicken sandwiches are my usual go tos)
Keith Law: Herb & Wood is spectacular. Cucina Urbana. RoVino the Foodery. And always breakfast at the Mission.

Spider Puig: How, exactly, is Moose not an upgrade at 2B when the Reds received a total WAR of -0.6 from the position in 2019?
Keith Law: Because they had Senzel ready to go at 2b; the difference between his defensive value there and his defensive value in CF is probably a win, and that’s before considering his trouble staying healthy and whether 2b is better for that.. Also, Moustakas’ defense at 2b is a complete unknown. He’s barely played it and I don’t think he’ll be average on defense.

BIll: Mize, Manning and Skubal: Do all three make their debut this year (health being the wild card), or do you see one or more of them being held back until ’21?
Keith Law: Health permitting they should all be up this year.

JP: unpopular opinion? do not do some half-assed DH to the NL option (DH as long as the starting pitcher is still in). either go full bore, or don’t change anything.
Keith Law: Full DH, please. Same rules everywhere.

Nick: I’m thinking of moving to Omaha. Have you ever been through there? Any thoughts on the city?
Keith Law: Once, really enjoyed it, great food scene, very manageable city, nice walkable downtown. It is, however, the least visibly diverse city I’ve ever visited.

Morris: The weirdest take I see on your Reds piece is that the trade for Puig got them Bauer, as if Taylor Trammell does not exist
Keith Law: In general, the Reds fans who were civil – I got more vile comments on Twitter yesterday than I had in some time – in disagreeing all seemed to dismiss the key point that they’ve traded three top 100 prospects in the last 13 months for not much return.

Matt: Careful, Keith.  Kobe was never even brought up on rape charges, much less convicted.  That story was extremely muddled, even for a “he said/she said” case.
Keith Law: GMAFB.

Michael: Co-worker of mine is suffering from major depression.  Cries all the time, can’t get out of his car, etc.  He’s seeing a psych and on meds.  Anything I can say/do that will help other than tell him I’m here for him, care about him, etc
Keith Law: That’s the best thing you can do. Don’t shy away from him at a time when others probably will.

Nick: Sonmez shouldn’t have been suspended, but can’t you agree that it was callous and tacky to re-tweet a 2017 article regarding Kobe’s rape case mere hours after his death?  THAT’s what she was compelled to announce upon hearing the news?
Keith Law: No, I don’t agree. I think it’s callous and tacky to praise him as a hero – especially talking about him as some sort of feminist – and completely ignore one of the most significant, public, and well-evidenced events of his life. Imagine how his victim felt seeing him lauded to the stars.

BIll: Do you see a scenario in which Lou Whitaker ever gets elected to the Hall of Fame? (At least the Tigers are finally retiring his number.)
Keith Law: I feel like the answer is no. Maybe if the Hall changes how it selects the people on the committees, but that seems unlikely.

Jason: I know your top 100 list isn’t coming out for a few weeks, but who do you think you’ll have higher: Dominguez or Abrams? Does Dominguez have too much risk to have him ranked super high or is the upside too good to ignore?
Keith Law: Abrams. Dominguez is 16 and hasn’t played a game yet.

Mike: In regards to the Kobe question – the stans for Kobe (or anybody) will always sound like idiots defending whomever it is they blindly follow. But a family is grieving a massive loss of both a husband/father and daughter/sister. Other family’s that were clearly connected to Kobe and his family are grieving their massive losses. IMO, this feels like the wrong time to take a stand on Kobe’s legacy, and add that to the discussion.
Keith Law: See above. This consider’s Kobe’s family, but doesn’t consider the woman who accused him of rape.

Brian: After a couple of run based cocktails do you ever think about your decision not to join the Astros front office and wonder if the highs (World Series win) would have been worth the lows (seemingly everything else)?
Keith Law: LOL, no. I have never regretted any of my decisions to decline chances to return to a front office – I think of all the time with my daughter I would have missed and I know I made the right calls.

Lara: Democrats campaign on an appeal to your greatest hopes  — health care for everyone, a perfect environment, everyone gets along, etc.; Republican campaign on an appeal to your greatest fears.
Keith Law: Fear sells.

JR: Are you a fan of The Good Place? If so, thoughts on final season (if you’ve been watching). I’m enjoying it, but it’s definitely run it’s course. Always better for a TV show to leave too soon then stay too long.
Keith Law: I loved S1-2, need to watch S3-4. I couldn’t do it weekly – that is a show I think I have to binge.

Sean: As a giants fan, I kept hoping for a Brandon Belt break out…which never came and likely never will…however he has been an average-good major leaguer for a while now. I should be happy with the production he’s provided and not disappointed that he never became a superstar right?
Keith Law: Yes – can’t control the injuries, either.

J: I recently saw in a documentary that Mick Jagger used The Master & The Margarita for inspiration when writing the lyrics for Sympathy For The Devil
Keith Law: Yep, he’s said that before. That book is far more influential than I ever realized in college when I was first assigned it.

Trey: Brailyn Marquez, finally a solid recent Cubs s pitching prospect, TOR starter or power closer? And do the Cubs have any other prospects that could hit the rotation soonish?
Keith Law: More likely a power closer IMO.

Uli Jon: Did you ever review “Left Hand of Darkness”? Halfway through and it’s my genre holy trinity of concept, world building, and writing skill, the last of which is sometimes lacking in sci-fi.
Keith Law: I did indeed, and loved it.

JP: would MLB consider it a “problem” if the same 10 teams from 2019 made the 2020 playoffs? or does it not matter?
Keith Law: They wouldn’t, and I’m not sure I would. If that continued going forward, yes, that would become one.

Michael: For anyone who thinks Kobe maybe didn’t rape her, read https://www.thedailybeast.com/kobe-bryants-disturbing-rape-case-the-dn…
Keith Law: Is that what Sonmez tweeted?

Spencer: A finance professor in college once told me that we can argue over policy and how that policy will affect economic growth all we want, but at some point certainty becomes more important.  Based on the proposal differences from the right and left, I’m beginning to think he may have been on to something.  Not saying where we should land; just saying people can’t plan when both sides are advocating for large changes every four years.
Keith Law: Perhaps, although to some extent I think all the macro stuff I was taught (20+ years ago) assumed too strongly that people would alter basic decisions around work and life in response to small changes in tax rates.

Lee: It’s been reported that Betts is seeking 12 years for 420 million.   A deal that long just seems like it’s destined to blow up in the teams face.  I’d love for the Red Sox to keep him but after seeing what’s happened to Dustin Pedroia on a much cheaper/not as many years deal, I’m not surprised that ownership is balking at doing that.   I’m all for Betts getting as much money as he possibly can but I also understand why it’s almost certainly going to be a bad deal for the team.
Keith Law: He can ask for that, doesn’t mean he’ll get it or close to it.

Giuseppe: Do you have any tips for stretching pizza dough? Mine always suffers from springback.
Keith Law: Might need to rest it longer. Also I stretch mine over the backs of my hands – knuckles, no fingertips – so gravity does some of the work. But I think the gluten in your doughs hasn’t relaxed enough.

Dan: Speaking of vaccines, I live in NJ and am incredibly frustrated by recent anti-vaxxers’ “wins” in the state. Really hope exemption loopholes are closed soon, but it’s so demoralizing to see anti-science bullshit continue to proliferate across the country.
Keith Law: Especially in a state that would like to claim it has good schools.
Keith Law: Keep calling your reps.

John: Why is Dusty’s reputation from 15 years ago still so difficult for him to shed? He has obviously always been one of the best at the managing people aspect of the job. And now that analytics and/or front office drive so much of the strategic aspect of the game, his weaknesses have been covered up.
Keith Law: It was extremely visible. You screw up in the playoffs and no one ever forgets.

Shaun: favorite Homestar Runner bit of all time?
Keith Law: The Homestarmy episode. Will you, stupid?

Erik: Do you endeavor to watch as many Oscar noms as possible or just ones that peak your interest
Keith Law: I try to see as many as I can and only skip ones to which I have a real objection – Richard Jewell this year, Hacksaw Ridge a few years ago.

Kip: Keith, why does the left reject nuclear energy at face value?  The technolgoy has improved, creates the majority of energy in France, and the amount of waste generated is less than advertised.  It seems foolish to reject emissions free energy entirely.
Keith Law: Fear. It’s unpopular, even though it’s quite safe overall. It’s a science literacy issue.

TomBruno23: Enjoying some brussels sprouts (thanks for the receipe from long ago) with some kung pao sauce. Thinking about taking down the entire 1lb bag. Will I be ok?
Keith Law: You stay … over there.

JB: It looks like Vandy will roll Austin Martin out at 3B again this year, but Corbin has also said Martin is one of the best defensive CFs he’s coached. Assuming Martin is plus out there as well, do you think pro teams will draft him as a CF where the bat plays even more than at 3B?
Keith Law: I thought I read that their plan was to try him some at SS. He played tremendous third base defense for me last spring.

Joe: Reds fans would like to point out that it’s embarrassing for a senior writer to claim that their pitching needed upgrading and not their hitting, whole also saying that a 2 or 3 WAR moose isn’t a big upgrade over the negative WAR they accumulated at that position last year.
Keith Law: I’m sure they would like to claim that, but they’d be wrong. Their pitching last year rested on the backs of multiple pitchers having career years of sorts that are not likely to be repeated. Sonny Gray had a career high in WAR after three years of far inferior performance, and then had minor elbow surgery. Luis Castillo hit a career high in innings to get to his new WAR high, and some of the underlying data looks fluky. I’ve pointed out that Desclafani has career-long issues with LHB, lacking a good pitch to use against them. Those three guys combined for around 11 WAR last year, with Desclafani throwing less than a full season. I don’t think you would reasonably bet the over on that, or even bet for a straight repeat. Multiple Reds fans claimed I said their pitching wasn’t good in 2019, but I never said that because it’s not true. I said it is a weakness for them in 2020, an opinion I hold based on what I just said above (and more). As for second base, I answered that above. Sorry, Joe.
Keith Law: Adding this after the chat … I also think Senzel and Winker are going to be much more productive at the plate this year.

Mike: I respect your consistency when it comes to defending sexual assault victims. I’m trying to look inward and figure out why I find it so distasteful to be brought up right now, and I guess it’s just an overwhelming sadness I have for that poor mother. But you’re right, I’d hate for that poor victim to think the world had forgotten that this man was (at least on one occasion) a monster.
Keith Law: The part of all of this I find most objectionable is the argument that it’s too soon to point out negative facts about someone’s who’s died. When is it okay? The next day? A week later? Ever? Why does someone’s death mean we can’t discuss the complexity of their life and/or their legacy? It seems like the ideal time to do so, even if that means touching on sensitive topics.

Jason: What was your objection to Hacksaw Ridge?
Keith Law: Its anti-Semitic domestic abuser director.

E.H. Zwick: Any Athletic podcasts on the horizon?
Keith Law: Yes.

Nolan: don’t talk about guns after a school shooting, don’t talk about rape after a rapist dies, but the second a virus spreads in an asian country and people are dying, start in on that orientalist bullshit!
Keith Law: Some day, one of those viruses will start here. It’s inevitable. Then we’ll see what it’s like to have the world close its doors to us, and maybe we’ll regret how we’ve acted in the past to countries that needed our help rather than our scorn and our prejudice.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Reminders: My prospect rankings run on The Athletic the week of 2/24, and my second book, The Inside Game, will be out on April 21st from Harper Collins. You can pre-order the book here. Thank you as always for all of your questions and for reading. I’ll try to keep these going until the rankings are ready!

Keith Law: It can’t all be wedding cake. Klawchat.

Krontz: Taylor Trammell ever hit enough for a Jacoby Ellsbury comp to be reasonable?
Keith Law: I don’t see them as similar players, really. I believe Trammell will hit, though.

Keith: Clay Davenport’s preseason win projections really like the Mets (96 wins) in the National league behind only the Dodgers (102). What have they done this offseason to improve so significantly, and do you buy into it?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on both win totals there.

Keith: Who do you project as the White Sox starting rotation in July 2020?
Keith Law: Giolito, Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Cease, Kopech. I wouldn’t rule out seeing Stiever in the majors before the season ends. Obviously I’m putting Lopez in the bullpen, which I’ve always thought was his ideal role.

addoeh: With Terry Jones’s passing, what was your favorite Python sketch?  Upper Class Twit of the Year has to be mine.
Keith Law: That’s a contender. Argument Clinic. The Piranha brothers. And the entire show built around the Michael Ellis gag is probably my favorite thing they did, although that’s a series of sketches. It’s hilarious and also wonderfully paranoid.

Keith: Hey Keith, thanks for the chat. Does Dylan Carlson’s breakout last year fit is profile? His BA was 50 points higher than his career average and his slg perctange was .150 points higher. He did do part of this at AAA in his age 20 season. Thanks and good luck at the Athletic.
Keith Law: Not sure about your question but I’ll say I think the breakout was real.

Dee Arby: Klaw, I really enjoy how you speak up regarding domestic violence.  My question is, how do you deal with the issue that because these athletes are so rich, their accusers can have ulterior motives? For example, how would you have done with the Brian Banks issue? He was the USC linebacker who spent six years in prision because he was falsely accused? Genuinely curious, not being snarky.
Keith Law: The “ulterior motives” thing is kind of bullshit. Most abuse/assault victims don’t report. Of those who do, nearly all are telling the truth. There’s a substantial social and often financial cost to coming forward. Just because every once in a blue moon there’s a case of a false accusation – which gets over-reported, of course – doesn’t mean we can or should generalize and think that many more accusers are lying. They’re not. The data say so, and ignoring that is classic base-rate neglect.

Lyle: In BA’s 2023 Opening Day Lineups for the Mariners, they had Tom Murphy at catcher. (I know, I know, not your list.) Can you come up with any legitimate reason other than a trade as to why Cal Raleigh would not be the starting catcher by then (especially wrt Murphy)?
Keith Law: No, I’d put Raleigh there.

bartleby: Keith, your comments on the Clemens/McReady relationship were interesting- what do you think of Woody Allen?
Keith Law: He’s canceled, appropriately. (I only saw … three of his films, I think, the last being Midnight in Paris whenever that came out.)

Michael: Your thoughts on the Metz Hiring Louis Rojas?
Keith Law: I wasn’t really kidding with my tweet the other day – the process ended up with them hiring a highly qualified manager, one with ~1000 games of managing experience, a bilingual guy who’s considered forward-thinking, comfortable with data, and good with players. Their second choice was the better candidate.

Buckner 86: Is Balazovic‘s upside a top 25 SP?
Keith Law: That might be aggressive but I’m a big fan.

Mike: You may have covered it in a previous chat, but are you going to be doing any podcasts with the Athletic or elsewhere?
Keith Law: Yes, with the Athletic, starting later this spring.

Tyler: Congrats on the move to The Athletic. Will you still be holding chats here regularly or moving to a different platform (presumably theirs)?
Keith Law: Klawchats will continue here for the foreseeable future.

Del, Venice CA: Whenever anyone talks about the Mets the consensus seems to be that Dom Smith is the odd man out and he should be traded. Since JD Davis’ value could never be higher after his 2019 season AND he fields multiple positions like a DH shouldn’t he be the one of the two to be shopped?
Keith Law: The assumption built into those statements is that Smith would have a higher trade value because he’s younger and a plus defender at 1b.

John Olerud: Full disclosure, I have posed this question to other baseball writers I respect, as I am truly interested to see if there are different perspectives on this subject. Based on the numbers, I’m surprised there hasn’t been much discussion (at least none that I’ve seen) about how Larry Walker’s career is truly a lot closer statistically to Jeter’s than impressions would imply. Indeed, Jeter has the milestone numbers that are important with HOF voters. And he was especially good when it ‘mattered’, but that has a lot to do with who and what teams he was lucky enough to play with and for. Indeed, this is not so much to disparage Jeter, but more a reflection of the “fame” element inherent to the HOF. Whatevever the reasons, do you personally find it at all strange that there seems to be this prevailing feeling that somhow Walker doesn’t breathe the same air as Jeter? Or maybe you disagree entirely with this premise? Thanks.
Keith Law: Jeter is a clear HoFer, but benefited from playing for the team that gets on national TV most often, and from having great teammates that helped him appear in the playoffs almost every year and in six World Series, and from announcers falling all over themselves to praise him even for things he did poorly (coughdefensecough). He was a great player and I voted for him. I just don’t understand why we have to inflate his accomplishments rather than respecting him for exactly who and what he really was.

Moe Mentum: I know you favor board games that involve strategy and puzzles (e.g. Carcassone), but do you ever play more mainstream “party” games that reward creativity with words? I think it would be fun to play games like Balderdash or Wise & Otherwise with a man with your wit and flair for language.
Keith Law: Wise & Otherwise is cool. I like Taboo as well, and there’s a game from about two years ago called Trapwords that works similarly but where the opposing team picks the words you can’t say. When I’m in a group setting and we want a party game I’ll usually suggest One Night Ultimate Werewolf (since it requires almost no instruction to play) or Codenames.

Craig: The only way I can make sense of the Brewers offseason is that they want a bunch of interchangable parts at 1B, SS and 3B in the hopes that with platoon splits and pinch hitting, they can be league averagish at those positions and have Yelich/Huira carry the team offensively. Is this accurate?
Keith Law: I don’t like assuming any team is done at this point in the offseason. Still some decent FA out there and a lot of trade chatter.

The Sloth: KLaw, are you attending any Phish concerts on the summer tour?
Keith Law: My girlfriend pulled up the schedule last night … decent chance we’ll go to one of the two mid-Atlantic venues in August.

The Sloth: What are your thoughts on the upside and most likely outcome for Brennan Davis?
Keith Law: That’s a question I’ll answer in the top 100, which will run the week of February 24th on the Athletic.

Joe: How does the Beltran news affect his HOF candidacy?
Keith Law: My guess is not at all.

Sammy So-So: If you’re a GM trading for a player like Nolan Arenado who has an opt-out after two years, are you offering assets in return to the other team just for those two years if a new arrangement with the player can’t be reached before the deal is done?
Keith Law: I’m valuing my return as two years of Arenado and assuming he’s opting out. I wouldn’t pay in prospects on the assumption he’s staying.
Keith Law: If he doesn’t opt out, something has gone wrong.

Christian (Raleigh, NC): Keith, which Braves pitching prospect has the best chance of making a big jump this year and helping out at the major league level? Anderson, Wright, Toussaint, Muller, etc.  P.S. — I hope things work out and you are able to come to the Raleigh/Cary area for a book signing. I would love to come out and meet you.
Keith Law: Anderson is the best, but Touki has the biggest potential to make a jump. Such a great athlete and a loose, quick arm.

Kevin: What are the chances that Anthopolous opts not to resign Freeman to a worthy extension?
Keith Law: Freeman will be 32 when his current deal ends. I’m not sure what a “worthy” extension means but I’m not rushing to extend him into his mid-30s.

Joe: Orioles are going in on BA for leaving Mountcastle off their top 100.  Seems like it would be odd for a guy who doesn’t walk or offer defensive value to actually make a top 100, no?
Keith Law: He’s not a top 100 candidate for me at all.

Matt: What board game do you think is underrated? What do you like about this game?
Keith Law: New Bedford – a worker placement game with a lot of fun elements (including the whaling aspect) that plays well under an hour. Glen More – a medium-weight game of tile-laying where one of the main goals is to convert wheat into whiskey. I’ve been playing La Isla a bit more lately, and I really like the way it forces you to plan ahead a few turns but also prevents you from having to plan ahead more than that, so it doesn’t become too heavy a game.

Tony: I’m not sure how to phrase this as a question, but the thing that I’ve never been able to make peace with about Andruw Jones’ Hall of Fame candidacy is that while he was truly one of the best defenders at his position in history for a decade, he then spent the last five years of his career being so bad defensively that not only was he moved off of center field, he was pretty much moved off the field entirely.
Keith Law: Because of his knees. He was so elite a defender that he’s become the modern standard for CF defense.

Bighen: Mets are going to make a bad Marte trade because Wilpons and Bvw know this is basically their last shot. No real question here but a little frustrating
Keith Law: Maybe. The Padres seem motivated to make a deal, and they have the prospects to acquire anyone, so there’s some chance they make a bad trade too.
Keith Law: (FTR, I wouldn’t deal Gore for any of these 1- or 2-year players.)

Professor Woland: I’m worried that the narrative now with regards to Altuve is going to be that he owes his success to the sign stealing stuff instead of natural talent, which would have a negative impact on future players of a similar size. Do you think that will be the case?
Keith Law: I have had that thought too. I hope it’s not the case; it’ll help if Altuve has a typical Altuve year in 2020.

Jerry: What kind of peak slash could you see for Kelenic? Is .300/.400/.500 in the realm of possibilities? Is he an MVP-caliber type of prospect (all things considered of course)?
Keith Law: MVP caliber prospect. He was in my midseason top 10 in July.

Casey: Is Zach Thompson a guy who could contribute sometime late this season or would it be wiser to get him through a full minor league season healthy and let him compete for a spot next year?
Keith Law: Seems aggressive especially since he had the Kentucky Forearm flu just two years ago.

Logan: Should the contracts of Acuna and Ozzie allow the Braves to go bigger in other areas? Seems like Alex is not interested in any kind of long term type additions..
Keith Law: Other than 3b, where would he really upgrade? I feel like they’re set at so many spots.
Keith Law: I guess if you could convert the pitching prospects into a top-end starter, sure, but I don’t know of any one that’s available.

Dan on Oahu: Keith- congrats on your move to the Athletic, I had been on the fence about subscribing but jumped on the bandwagon as soon as I saw the move and it’s well worth the price of admission. What would be a reasonable return to the Cubs for Bryant from either the Braves or Dodgers? Same question for Arrenado?
Keith Law: I heard from one exec that the Cubs weren’t really talking Bryant with suitors. This was a club that, in theory, would be in his market.

Nathan: I have a 7 year old daughter who loves all things Disney. With Disney+ available she is wanting to watch some of the “classic” movies. How would you handle some of the blatantly racist movies of the past? I’m thinking specifically Dumbo (the crows) and Peter Pan (native Americans). Do I not let her watch those? Let her watch those but explain why they’re bad portrayals of these groups of people?
Keith Law: I had forgotten how racist Peter Pan was until I re-watched it with my daughter. She saw it once and that’s it; we didn’t let her watch it again. I don’t think she’s seen the animated Dumbo.

Hank: Why haven’t the Angels received much heat for sacrificing their 1st rounder Wil Wilson just to shed Cozarts salary? DBacks caught hell for the same type deal Arroyo/Touki..
Keith Law: The Angels used that money to sign Rendon. The Dbacks did it because they’d screwed up elsewhere.

Doug: Do you see Dansby Swanson ever being more with bat? Seems like his EV and Hard Hits improved, hopefully better results are coming. Maybe a Brandon Crawford type late bloom with the bat?
Keith Law: Yes, I think there’s more there.

Nick: Re: Daulton Varsho, does the bat play if they move him down the defensive spectrum?  And do you think he can contribute for AZ this year?
Keith Law: Yes, it does. No, probably not.

Larry: Who is the college pitcher and hitter you think will make the biggest jump this spring?
Keith Law: I’m still figuring out when it’ll run but I will have something on the draft up at the Athletic within the next month. I really liked Cole Wilcox in HS, but scouts I’ve asked have him more back of the first; I feel like he could end up in the top ten if he does what I think he can do all spring.

Doug: Lucius Fox and Anderson Tejeda – do they both stay at SS?  Who has the better future?
Keith Law: Fox for sure does. I think he’s the better prospect but I also haven’t done as much work on Texas for my top 100 yet.

Kevin W: What do you think of 3 batter tule and september rosters down from 40-28
Keith Law: I preferred a 2-batter rule but I’ll take this. September roster reduction I think addresses a real problem in a way that hurts players.

Steve : Seems like the Mets have taken a lot of unnecessary abuse for this Beltran saga.  It feels to me that they did the right thing firing him and Rojas was the right choice with his experience managing (and maybe should have been hired in the first place.)  You agree?
Keith Law: Their mistake was hiring Beltran in the first place, because he has no experience whatsoever. They have since done all the right things. (Also, if I were Beltran, I’d offer myself to any interested club as a manager in the minors this year. Go get a year of experience and odds are you’ll get interviewed for every opening next October.)

Kevin W: What is longest home run you have ever seen in person?
Keith Law: I’m not sure about in-game but I saw Barry Bonds take BP in Toronto in 2003 and hit one off the restaurant in CF that is the hardest-hit ball I think I’ve ever seen. Gallo at the Futures Game might be the longest HR in a game.

Dusty: I appreciate the candidness in your newsletter about the difficult moral judgments involved in voting for the Hall of Fame.  I just wanted to say that I appreciate having you as a voter and I hope you will continue to vote, as I feel like you give a voice to those of us who read you regularly and there need to be more voices like yours and not less.  Either way, I respect your decision and the thoughtfulness and openness with which you wrestle with it.
Keith Law: I feel like voting is a privilege and a responsibility. If I can’t fulfill the duties of a voter to my own standards, I won’t vote.

Beau: Chris Murphy (BOS) have any chance of remaining a starter? Didn’t seem to walk as many as expected in his prob debut.
Keith Law: Yes, definitely.

Kevin W: Do you think the best movies today are better than the best movies of 70’s and before?
Keith Law: Yes, but the gap between the best movies and the most commercially successful ones has widened.

James: My first Klawchat since you joined the Athletic so want to start off saying congrats. I’m seemingly one of the few who have no issue including Francisco Alvarez in a deal for Starling Marte. In brief, him being 3-4 years off at best, the overall “failure rate” (for lack of a better term) of catching prospects, and Marte’s no doubt talent and fit on the win-now Mets roster are all reasons why I see his inclusion as a headliner as a no-brainer. Am I crazy?
Keith Law: Crazy, no. But I don’t think I’d do it.
Keith Law: Not saying I wouldn’t trade Alvarez, just that I wouldn’t do it for a year of Marte (EDIT: Two years of Marte, including the team option). Plus, you just traded Kelenic in a deal that was an abject disaster … don’t further gut the system for more short-term help.

Kevin W: Do you think cora gets a lifetime ban?  And should altuve and bregman (and whoever else) be punished if they are caught cheating?
Keith Law: I hope not (for Cora). The players got immunity; we can’t change that now.

Matt: I watched American Factory last night. What a dystopian movie. And it’s REAL! How on earth can those workers justify not having an union when they went from making $30 to $14? I just don’t get how people fall for this garbage.
Keith Law: People falling for propaganda and voting against their own interests has been going on in the U.S. for over a century. It’s particularly stark now because, at least in my opinion, better information is available, and it’s easy to see how corporate money pushes its messages more strongly than, say, the pro-union forces were able to.
Keith Law: (Also, no idea how that movie didn’t immediately result in NLRB investigations into Fuyao. Its executives violated federal labor laws on camera!)

Steve: My wife is due for our first kid in two weeks. Any advice on fatherhood?
Keith Law: Get The Happiest Baby on the Block. And help your wife get as much sleep as she can.

Vincent Adultman: Has Josh Breaux passed Anthony Siegler (even if neither look like starting catchers) and does Antonio Gomez have a higher ceiling than both?
Keith Law: No.

Vincent Adultman: BA’s recent mock draft had Pete Crow-Armstrong falling to the Yankees at the bottom of the round- leaving the team pairing aside, has he “fallen” this much in the eyes of evaluators (or is it that deep of a draft) and if he fell that far, would you expect him to go to college?
Keith Law: He’s not a top half of the draft guy right now; I’m not sure he’d make my top 30 if I wrote one today.

Joe: Please explain how Sammy Sosa is not a HOF ?
Keith Law: 58.6 career WAR with a short peak is actually on the low side for Hall of Famers.

Roger: What do you make of Coors field splits? Arenado’s BA and OPS are pretty staggering such that I’d be very cautious in a trade, no?
Keith Law: Plenty of evidence that Rockies who leave Coors outperform their road stats from when they were with Colorado.

Alex: I 100% agree that a discussion needs to be had regarding DV and the HOF.  As a family law lawyer, though, I struggle with the suspensions that leagues hand out to players that involve withholding their pay.  In a lot of these cases, the victim is awarded a percentage of the abusers earnings as spousal support, child support, etc.  By docking an abuser’s pay, you are taking money out of the victim’s pocket.  That isn’t ideal.  Of course, a domestic abuser getting to appear on the national stage isn’t ideal, either.  What’s the answer?  The suspension holds but equalizing payments are made to the victim directly from the team withholding salary?
Keith Law: I appreciate the insight & sentiment in your proposal, but in the cases we’ve had so far, many of the victims have stayed with the suspended players, so I’m not sure how you could pay a player’s wife while he was suspended without pay.

lucas: If Amed Rosario struggles again at SS this year (acknowledging he improved in the 2nd half), would you move on, knowing Gimenez and Mauricio are knocking on the door?
Keith Law: He was much better in the second half. I’m not giving up on him.

Jason: What is  the ceiling for Luis Urias?
Keith Law: Above average regular. Curious to see how Milwaukee gets him 500 AB this year, which he needs.

Brandon: Related to my Fire Bridich question–Bridich said, regarding Arenado’s opt-out, that it was Bridich’s suggestion.  Two questions: (a) if that is true, is there any rational justification for the team to suggest a player opt-out unless needed to make the deal; (b) if not true, is there any good PR reason for the team to assert that the opt-out was the team’s idea.  Thanks.
Keith Law: I have no inside knowledge on this but I would be shocked if Arenado would have signed an extension without an opt-out.

Kevin: To the people who think Scott Rolen is not a HOFer, but vote in Omar Vizquel….what is wrong with you
Keith Law: A great question.

Joe: Disney+ will preface these movies now acknowledging they’re from another era.
Keith Law: Yes, and I’m not sure if that’s the right approach, or if they should do what they did with Song of the South, which is bury the movie below a million copies of the E.T. video game.

Oscar: All of the brouhaha regarding Jeter not getting 100% of votes has allowed me to realize just how much I don’t care about the HOF.
Keith Law: It’s so dumb. You get the same plaque with 75.00001% and with 100%.

Gary C: How good of a prospect is Neovli Marte for Seattle? What is his scouting report?
Keith Law: Another one for the top 100/org rankings next month.

Mark: EXTREMELY HAPPY to hear you’re going to be doing a podcast in the near future. Any chance we can get regular segments with Karabell? There’s still a Baseball Today-sized hole in my heart. #FreeBiasCat
Keith Law: I don’t know if ESPN would allow that, but of course I’d love to get the band back together.

Lee: I read a report that Triston Casas grew an inch and gained 10 pounds this offseason.  His bat seems legit but any chance he could stick at 3B?
Keith Law: For me, no. 1b only.

Sammy Sosa: Have you ever played Secret Hitler? Curious how the gaming community feels about it.
Keith Law: I hate the name and theme.
Keith Law: It’s just not funny.

Ben: If healthy, and that’s a big if, could Daulton Jeffries be a #4 starter?
Keith Law: TBH, I have no idea what he’ll look like when healthy. He was very good for a hot minute in college and then got hurt.

Chris: Has Julio Rodriguez passed kellenic as the mariners best prospect in your opinion?
Keith Law: Come on.

Matt W: The Mets wouldn’t have taken so much flack if they were quick and decisive with the move. They waited what, 3 days before making any comment at all, said there was gonna be a statement and then never gave one. Then, there was the ridiculous “I’m just here to talk about Mike Piazza Way” press gaggle the next day, followed by the news dropping a couple hours later. Even that wasn’t straightforward, did Beltran step down? Was it a mutual parting of ways? For all the things the Wilpons are terrible at, and they are numerous, PR/Comms is possibly the worst. So many self-inflicted wounds, even if they ultimately come to the correct decision.
Keith Law: Yes, they are PR-unsavvy, but in the end they got it right. I’m good with that. I’ll still mock the Wilpons for their incompetence, though.

Robert: True or false: the luxury tax penalties are toothless enough that it should never be a priority for the Cubs (or Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers) to get under the threshold if they have any realistic chance at the postseason.
Keith Law: True.

TP: Excited for your work on labor issues with The Athletic.  Apologies if this is too personal, but are you currently or have you been in a union? How might your experiences help shape your coverage?
Keith Law: I’m not now and have never been in one – never worked in a union shop. My parents didn’t either.

Joe: Do you have any favorite board game apps?
Keith Law: I ranked the top 25 for Vulture last year, and then ranked the 8 best new apps of 2019 for Ars Technica. Bear in mind the Carcassonne iOS app, #1 on the first list, is going away on March 1st as the developers’ license is expiring, so buy it now if you want it.

K: Just how good is Kumar Rocker? Strasburg/Harper tier or less?
Keith Law: Way less. That is some rarefied air there.

Nick: Over/Under 25 homers for Evan White in 2020?
Keith Law: I’ll take the under.

Luke: Why We Sleep is fascinating, thanks for the recommendation. In what ways, if any, has the book altered your sleep habits?
Keith Law: I try to be more rigorous about getting to bed on time and giving myself a sleep window of 8 hours. (I am not always successful.) I also am less likely to have a single drink on a weeknight, and I put room-darkening shades in my bedroom.

Aureliano Buendia: Keith, are you planning to watch Jojo Rabbit? I did it recently and it was so much better than expected considering the subject. I’m not saying it should win Best Picture but I think it is worthy of the nomination
Keith Law: Yes, maybe this weekend.

Dave: When do you play boardgames– evening, weekend afternoon, other?
Keith Law: Yes. I play online too – I played one of you this week, in fact. (Good game, reader person whose name I don’t know!)

Gunther Centralperk: Do you see any mechanical issues with Kershaw regarding his lack of a change-up? I really wish he’d work on it and get back to being close to his old self.
Keith Law: I’m missing something here. He’s never really used a changeup – Fangraphs has his highest rate at 5.5% in his first year – and there’s no mechanical issue here. He’s lost his fastball. His average velocity has dropped to a career low for two straight years. That’s his problem.

Robert: No real question…just wanted to point out how mind-blowing it is that the Ricketts family has used up every ounce of good will from the World Series win in just three years. They should’ve been heroes for life, but they’re already disliked as much as the Tribune company was.
Keith Law: It is rather astonishing. All they really had to do was keep the status quo. But I don’t think they care one iota about good will. They care about making more money.

Sean: Will the padres be able to find 500 ABs for trent grisham this year?
Keith Law: As the roster currently stands, yes.

Mike: I know many people ask for parenting advice.  A must have book for parents with children who are challenging, are easily frustrated, and exhibit temper issues is The Explosive Child.  Key theme from the book is thqt children behave well when they can, not when they want to.   Really helps parents better understand what our job is
Keith Law: Thank you. I’d be interested in that myself.

Matt W: What are the chances the one non-Jeter ballot was a blank ballot?
Keith Law: I suppose it’s possible but we had no blank ballots last year.

KF: Do you think the Twins will trade for an impact starter before the season starts, or wait until the trade deadline? What are some names to keep an eye on?
Keith Law: I don’t see any impact starters available in trade.

X-man: Mr. Keith Law, The latest Betts rumor seems ludicrous. “Major prospect haul” but not including any of their top 5?  Is their next group good enough for any combination to be worth it to Boston, even before the supposed poison pill of including Myers (even if including Myers also meant that Price was in the deal but just left out of the stories)?
Keith Law: If the Padres are taking the whole salary, sure – and while I probably wouldn’t do this, you could put together a good package of prospects from outside of the Padres’ top five. Morejon, Weathers, Miller, Baez, Arias – these are all really good prospects but not top five in that system.

Pat D: If Andujar is healthy enough, should he DH and Stanton play in left?  Or is Stanton best to just DH all the time anymore?  This isn’t really a major problem though, is it?
Keith Law: Depends on Stanton’s health, no?

Mat Ji: Did you ever explain to us why you maliciously changed this website so that some of us couldn’t access it via our phones?  For the record, that was probably the most hilarious criticism of you I have ever heard.
Keith Law: For folks who missed it, someone commented and accused me of blocking mobile users from seeing the site. There is an issue here, from something Hostgator did, that I’m trying to unravel, but the idea I would block an entire swath of the audience from the site is WTF.

DJ: Were you aware of any shenanigans going on with the center field restaurant “spying” rumors in toronto and would a gm be aware of it like in the case of houston
Keith Law: None of that was while I was there.

Chris: Favorite homemade condiment? I’m contemplating trying the XO sauce recipe from Serious Eats, and am struggling to make a decision.
Keith Law: I pickle onions regularly (also a Serious Eats recipe, I think). Homemade mayonnaise is the best. I haven’t made chimichurri in a while but it’s great and keeps a while with all the acid.

Matt W: Speaking of outdated disney+ offerings, my wife and I watched Davey Crockett the other night when we were babysitting after the kids went to sleep. I loved that movie as a kid but wow
Keith Law: Fortunately (?) I’ve never seen that.

Jason: Does Michel Baez have a future as a starter (I don’t mean to take any thunder from your prospect package)
Keith Law: Nonzero chance.

pakkap: the in-division hiccup is a problem, but assuming arenado is truly pushing his way out of coors after their baffling handling of him, is keibert ruiz/gonsolin/pederson not a totally equitable (even a bit too much given the opt out) package?
Keith Law: Seems like good value, if the Rockies believe Gonsolin fits their environment.

EG: Through listening to Chvrches and Broods (thanks to reading you), I came across Meg Myers. Have you listened to any of her stuff?
Keith Law: Her name seems familiar but as I look on Spotify none of this rings a bell.

Bill: Who in your opinion is the most underrated actor/actress out there? In my view, it’s Toni Collette, who can do just about any accent and is pretty adept at both comedy and drama. She’s been nominated only once for an Oscar.
Keith Law: Just sticking with Knives Out, I’d say Michael Shannon.

John: What do you think of the most recent Vampire Weekend or Bon Iver album?
Keith Law: I hate VW. Bon Iver doesn’t do much for me.

Stuckeyville: Re the Carcassone app, are the expansions worth it? Thanks
Keith Law: Some are. Traders/Builders and Inns/Cathedrals are my favorite in the physical game.

Dave: Would you buy a baseball team if you had the money to do so?
Keith Law: Sure, they’re great investments. But I’d hire baseball ops people and let them do their jobs.

Robert: Re: Vizquel/non-Rolen voters—I feel the same way about Vizquel/non-Andruw Jones voters. I’m not sure Jones is a HOFer…but if Vizquel is, then Jones is way over the line.
Keith Law: This is also true. There’s this weird bit of revisionism over Vizquel that bothers me because of what it says about our society – he was never viewed as an elite player while he played (he got ONE MVP vote in his entire career), and all objective data say he wasn’t close to Hall of Famer caliber. His supporters simply want to ignore the facts and rewrite history to suit their whims. That’s reprehensible.

Riveryanks: Didn’t notice if you put up a review of Lathe of Heaven. Curious on your thoughts.
Keith Law: Not her best.

Dave: Haven’t been to one of your book events previously, but hoping to make the DC one this spring. What’s the vibe? KLawchat live?
Keith Law: I think that’s a better question for folks who’ve been to one, but I do take a lot of questions and try to crack jokes and generally have a good time. No singing, though.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you as always for all of your questions. You can pre-order my next book, The Inside Game, now via Harper Collins’ site or anywhere fine books are sold. I’ll try to keep the chats going the next few weeks but as I get busy writing the prospect rankings I might have to skip a week here or there. Enjoy your weekends!

Starting at 1 pm ET. I have two new posts up at the Athletic – a breakdown of the Twins signing Josh Donaldson and a brief look at the ten best prospects to change teams this offseason. My latest board game review for Paste covers The Taverns of Tiefenthal, a great new midweight title from the designer of The Mind, That’s Pretty Clever!, and The Quacks of Quedlinburg.

Keith Law: We already did this. Klawchat.

JR: What are your thoughts on Beltran’s involvement with the Astros scandal? Should he be fired as Mets manager? Or does the fact that he was a player at the time and not management absolve him and he shouldn’t be fired?
Keith Law: I’m not sure why players were absolved en masse, but Beltrán’s status as player at the time doesn’t exculpate him, and yes, I think the Mets should move on.

addoeh: Which would have been worse for the Astros, losing their 1st and 2nd round picks for the next two drafts or being frozen out of the international market for two years?
Keith Law: I think the draft.

Wyatt : A different type of Question for You: Do you Prefer light or dark mode on your iPhone?
Keith Law: Light mode is substantially better for your eyes.

Mike: Hi, Keith! I write quite often for my occupation and was wondering what laptop / computer you prefer when writing?
Keith Law: I write on both my windows laptop and my iPad, depending on where I am and what I’m writing.

Greg: Hey, Keith. So glad you’re at the Athletic now. Will you still be able to do ESPN hits though? I know you just left, but there are still people from the Athletic on there all the time (though I can’t think of many who went straight from ESPN to the Athletic).
Keith Law: There’s nothing preventing me from doing so, but then again, they just put a part-time MLB team employee on to comment on an issue that touches the team that employs them, so … maybe not?

Mark: People follow you for your strong opinions. You were a huge supporter of Cora, are you disappointed that someone you thought so highly of, was a large part of this whole sign stealing fiasco? Or, is it more, oh well it was just my guy that got caught?
Keith Law: I am disappointed. I advocated for Alex for years, publicly and privately, because I believed he’d be excellent at the job. I never once expected an outcome like this – if you’d asked me about his integrity at the time I would have said I had zero concerns about it whatsoever.

CyMature: Hi Keith. Has Alex Kirillof “gone backwards?” Injuries? Out of shape?
Keith Law: Uh, what? This is arrant nonsense.

Steve: Granted, everyone needs more pitching but how do you see things shaking out for the White Sox rotation in 2020? Keuchel and Giolito seem like they should give 6+ most of the time. But Lopez gonna Lopez, Gio Gonzalez had a dead arm most of last year, Kopech is going to have some sort of post-TJS innings cap and Cease is sort of a wild card. Tandem starts part of the solution?
Keith Law: Don’t know that I buy your pessimism on Gio, but I agree Lopez remains ill-suited to starting, and they might need another fifth-starter/depth guy. I don’t think it’s out of the question that Stiever makes some starts for them this year.

Greg: A vocal minority of Phillies fans seem to read that Maikel Franco is in FL working in cages and getting to know his new KC teammates and think that THIS is HIS YEAR. Especially now that “he’s free of Kapler and his launch angle nonsense.” This is nuts, right? He’s been in the majors 5 years. And it’s not like he didn’t play for two other managers before Kapler.
Keith Law: That’s nuts. Franco’s issue was never launch angle-related. His approach hasn’t improved since double-A.

Matt: You’re transparent about prospects you whiff on. How about a boardgame. What game did you review too harshly or what game grew on you over time? Any game you reviewed too generously In hindsight? Appreciate your game reviews. Currently playing Imhotep Duel heavily thanks to your review.
Keith Law: I was definitely too high on Bruges and Skyward on first plays. Bruges in particular started to annoy me the more I played (online) because you’re so at the mercy of the cards you draw. It’s a shame as I think there’s a good idea inside there somewhere.

TomBruno23: In your review of Dark Money you mentioned not buying Georgia Pacific products. What about investing? I lean to the left on many issues, but also have holdings in Exxon Mobil and who know what else in some of these mutual funds. Can I still sleep well at night?
Keith Law: For folks who didn’t read that review, I don’t believe individual ‘boycotts’ like that accomplish anything but to make the individual feel better. I try not to buy products from companies owned by Koch industries, I’d never shop at Menard’s, etc. I wouldn’t make direct purchases of stocks in such companies, but I don’t think investing passively in them via index funds is morally questionable. YMMV.

Burton Ernie: Do you see Hinch, Cora or Lunhow (and possibly Beltran) working again in baseball? I think teams wouldn’t want to deal with the fallout.
Keith Law: Yes, maybe (depending on the penalty), unlikely, in that order.

Moe Mentum: Which repeal of an archaic democratic system is the bigger no-brainer – the electoral college, or Iowa/New Hampshire always launching primary season?
Keith Law: Well, both, but I think the Iowa/NH thing would be easier to uproot.

David: Should KeBryan Hayes start the year as Pittsburgh’s starting 3B or does he need more time in AAA? I feel like he is currently the team’s best option, but didn’t know if he was ready yet. (I say all of this knowing they will probably play with his service time and hold him down until July.)
Keith Law: Glove is ready, bat perhaps not, but I also don’t see the harm in starting him now and letting him work with the big league coaches, since he has a full year in AAA already.

Tom: What can a healthy Jordan Montgomery look like?
Keith Law: Fifth starter.

Moe Mentum: What’s Adam Haseley’s ceiling, and has it improved since his major league debut last season?
Keith Law: His ceiling would not have changed just by reaching the majors. A player’s ceiling is his ultimate outcome, a best case scenario based on what he is now and what scouts or analysts project him to become. Getting to the majors doesn’t change that.

mike: If you were the Wilpons (thankfully for you you aren’t), what would you do about Beltran?
Keith Law: Part ways with him.

Ron: Hi Keith- If they would be so inclined, what would it take for the Twins to get Gray from the Rockies? Would Rosario, Gordon, Larnach, Rooker do it or would you have to include a Graterol or Balazovic instead? Thanks
Keith Law: I can’t imagine the Rockies deal Gray and don’t demand one of the Twins’ top four prospects.

Ben: Hi Klaw. With the Donaldson upgrade, should the Twins still look to trade for a pitcher right now? Or, at this point, would it make more sense for them to roll with what they have to start the year, hope they can compete in the regular season like last year, and look to upgrade for “impact” pitching at the deadline when they see how the team shakes out?
Keith Law: They’ve added a lot of pitching already, just not famous pitching.

Dr. Bob: Hi, Keith. The Astros have had a problem with their circle-the-wagons culture and lack of transparency. So they’re looking at Buck Showalter to manage?
Keith Law: Well, if you want someone to come in and impose order, he’s a good choice.

BigDaddeh: Do you think Bernie said a woman couldn’t win?
Keith Law: I think people who’ve defended him, claiming he didn’t/couldn’t have said that, are basing it on their fandom rather than any rational arguments. This coming out presented nothing but downside for Warren, and I think it’s imperfectly analogous to how we treat women who accuse powerful men of harassment and are disbelieved because the accusations are inconvenient. (Meanwhile, The Met Philly is hosting Louis C.K.’s new tour. I’ll cross that venue off my list.)

Matt: Cora is getting a lifetime ban isn’t he?
Keith Law: This is my fear, given the delay in announcing it.

Youngman: What are thoughts on Kyle Wright? Just seems like he’s not meeting expectations and for his age should already be more established.
Keith Law: I don’t agree with anything in that second sentence, sorry.

Alex: What is Emerson Hancock’s upside? Potential ace, Top of rotation, etc– and what is holding him back (other than health)
Keith Law: Best or second-best college starter in the class. Above-average or better starter upside. Health is the major concern.

Ed: Will you reveal your Hall ballot this year? Presumably on the Athletic, if you do …
Keith Law: That is/was my plan.

Aaron C.: Been eyeing pork belly at Costco. You’ve made homemade bacon before, yes? Ruhlman’s recipe from “20”? Any tips/lessons learned?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s the recipe I used, hardest part was maintaining the temperature of the smoker (keeping it from varying too much either way).

ck: Reading Bud Selig’s book. He constantly insists teams were losing money. I know he obviously has his own angle, but could this be true?
Keith Law: No, it’s not true, but I suppose if you repeat a lie often enough eventually you start to believe it.

Guest: And now Beltran is stepping down. Who do the Mets hire now?
Keith Law: Heh, happened right after I started this chat, so I didn’t see it. It’s the right move. Also, this is unrelated, but Beltrán had absolutely no experience relevant to the job. The Mets could end up better off in the end, assuming they hire someone who has some relevant experience.

Chris: I thought the Nats pivoting to Harris and Hudson was solid. They keep cheap, IMO.
Keith Law: They stay flexible, but I don’t think they’ve done poorly and wouldn’t say they were “cheap,” not after they paid to keep Strasburg.

Dave: Which CTY site did you attend? (Dickinson ’95-’97 here)
Keith Law: Franklin & Marshall, ’86-88.

Tyler: Do you think Mitch Haniger is worth a Top 100 prospect in trade?
Keith Law: Probably.

Jason: Thoughts on former colleague Jessica Mendoza’s comments this morning? Should she have to choose between being an ESPN analyst or being a Mets rep?
Keith Law: Yes, she should. You can’t do both. I don’t think she should have commented this morning, and I don’t think the producer(s) in question should have even asked her to do so.
Keith Law: I can’t work for a team. It would present me with endless, insoluble conflicts of interest.

John S: Is predicting pitchers’ health in five years is such a futile exercise that the Padres should just call up Gore?
Keith Law: I mean, you’re not wrong. I don’t know if you’re right, but I know you’re not wrong.

Dave: Can you expand on your answer re: loss of draft picks vs. loss of access to int’l market? Essentially, why do you think draft picks would be dearer?
Keith Law: Those players are two to five years older than July 2nd players and thus much closer to major-league value.

rufreshterp: Can Carter Kieboom play the outfield or is he stuck at 2B/3B? I’ve heard some scouts question his eyes in the outfield (ability to pick up the ball off the bat) so don’t know if OF is viable for him going forward.
Keith Law: Has he played the OF enough to say that? I don’t think so. He’ll be fine at 2b or 3b. I don’t think he can handle SS at all.

Dungeon Master: KLaw, really excited to see you at The Athletic, especially as the timing lined up perfectly with the expiration of my ESPN+ subscription.
Keith Law: That was a big part of my decision. I told my agent we have to delay this until Dungeon Master’s subscription to ESPN+ expires.

Nick: As an Indians fan, am I just off my rocker to expect Ethan Hankins to have a breakout season that launches him into the top 100?
Keith Law: I would bet against that right now.

Bill: Who was punished worse by MLB, the Braves for their signing infractions or the Astros for cheating in games?
Keith Law: Coppolella’s punishment seems even more egregious now with these punishments. Of course, he was accused of violating rules designed to keep owners from having to spend more money on players, and that is an eternal sin in the church of baseball.

Aaron C.: Please rank, in order of deliciousness, pancakes, waffles and French toast.
Keith Law: Waffles. You can have the other two if I get all the waffles.

Scott: Any plans to come through Louisville again this college baseball season?
Keith Law: Not on my current schedule but that can always be subject to change. Nashville and Athens are on the schedule, though.

Bryan: What are your Top 3 board games for families with young kids?
Keith Law: Depends on how young, but if you’re looking for stuff for kids old enough to play family games (not just kid games), I’d say Ticket to Ride, Splendor, and King of Tokyo.

TP: Since you are no longer working for ESPN, any plans to move out of Delaware?
Keith Law: Those two things are not related at all.
Keith Law: And no, I’m not moving.

Guest: What do you make of thr moved St Louis has made. They’ve taken talent away from the major league roster without really replacing it. Are they looking to improve this year or eyeing the future? And for the record i Dont think they will add Arenado. Just not a move they typically make
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re done.

JC: Your Donaldson writeup made the Braves current situations seem…bleak at best, but if you are the Rockies, are you even interested in Riley as part of a return? Is he the type of cheap guy with upside you
Keith Law: Colorado could certainly put together a strong package of Atlanta prospects – Waters/Pache plus two of the better arms plus one of the two catchers – that would make the deal worth their while. Riley isn’t necessary.

Bruce: I know you are a fan of Agatha Christie. Having never read any of her books, which ones would you suggest I read?
Keith Law: I think Death on the Nile is the first Poirot novel … I’d start there. It’s not necessary but it does introduce the character.

Nolan: Which is more likely for 2020: Wil Myers has an above average year at the plate, Franchy Cordero plays more than 100 games, or Manuel Margot improves his offense enough to become a 3 win player?
Keith Law: Myers least likely of the three.

Zach D: Trump tax cuts saved the 6 biggest banks $32billion lol (https://news.yahoo.com/trump-tax-cut-hands-32-171229065.html)
Keith Law: Just as his supporters intended, I’m sure.

Jason: I initially thought absolving the players was utter nonsense, but it did resonate that many of the players are not on the Astros anymore. If you punish the player, you’re punishing other teams, including teams that will play the Astros this year. I’m not sure how you solve that problem. What did you have in mind?
Keith Law: Why couldn’t you just fine the players? How does that punish their new employers?

Darren: Now that the Joker movie has won some awards and nominated in many categories for the Oscars, are you interested in seeing it? It’s similar to Black Panther that it is not just good for a comic book movie, it’s a great movie.
Keith Law: I will see it for completeness’ sake, but I don’t believe that it’s a “great movie.” I guess we’ll see.

TP: How many of the players on your Top 100 prospects list will you have evaluated in person?
Keith Law: It’s usually around 70, with some variance of course.

Tony: Keith, a real draft question to put our expectations in perspective. I have a draft eligible son here in Wisconsin. Currently theres snow and 25 degrees. He’s a RHP and we know how the cold effects pitchers arms. We are all aware of Gavin Lux and think his situation is fantastic for him, his family, and our state. However my concern is that his draft result is anomaly. Wondering with your pro background, considering the climate, the likelyhood of upper level scouts coming to games, and the lack of good “looks” for my son due to the snow, and no directors coming to see him until May, what is the reality of him having a true shot of being drafted within the first couple rounds? My concern is the deck is really stacked against him with things out of his control. Even if he is as good/better than another pitcher his age from FL or CA, I worry by the time an executive comes to see him in May that it is too late to warrant a top 2 round selection. Therefore our only hope is a potential overpay later on. True?
Keith Law: Lux, Kelenic, and Rortvedt were all Wisconsin HS kids who went on day one in the last four years. I don’t know who your son is, obviously, so I can’t comment on his outlook, but if he’s already on scouts’ radar now, he’ll be seen. My concern would be if he wasn’t that well known enough now that teams aren’t already planning to see him, since the window to scout a player in the tundra is pretty short.

Don Gately: Any plans to read Trust Exercise?
Keith Law: I don’t really plan to read many books far in advance … that’s a possible Pulitzer winner, so maybe I’ll read it. I’m just finishing up Michael Kinch’s Between Hope and Fear: A History of Vaccines and Human Immunity, which also explains how anti-vaxxers are the worst people on earth.

Bryan: Is Nolan Jones a .300/.400/.500 guy at peak or is that overly optimistic?
Keith Law: That’s really optimistic.

Daniel: Rough day for Puerto Rican managers
Keith Law: Ugh, I didn’t even think of that, but yes, it is. Bad week for diversity in a field that needed it, too.

Thomas: Hi Keith;
Congrats on your move to The Athletic (and a bonus for me since I already subscribe). Since I think it went down just as your ESPN contract was finishing, I didn’t see you do any write-up on the Jays’ signing of Ryu. Curious about your thoughts on it. Thanks!
Keith Law: Great move. I was technically on vacation when that happened – my last work day at ESPN was 12/19, then I used some vacation days and had the holidays, so we wouldn’t get the weird situation of me writing for ESPN on Monday and then showing up at the Athletic three days later or something.

Mike S: HI Keith, Do you believe trammel or grisham can be an everyday CF? The Padres seem to believe so, while the public opinion greatly differs.
Keith Law: Centerfield? They don’t think that. And I don’t either. Trammell doesn’t have the arm for it and Grisham definitely doesn’t have the range.

Aaron: Given 600 AB this year, you would put the Austin Riley strikeout total at ___.
Keith Law: 200+, but I don’t think he gets 600 AB.
Keith Law: I’d feel better about Camargo splitting the difference between 2018 and 2019 than I would about Riley hitting better enough in the majors to justify playing him.

Lars: What is a gender-neutral replacement for sir/ma’am? I know it’s a little dated, but I live in an area where it’s common to use those terms and I’d like to find a compromise (show respect, but not in a gendered way).
Keith Law: That’s an interesting question – I don’t know the answer.

Matt: Beltran is gone. Rosenthal reported it 5 min ago
Keith Law: Bear in mind that I see questions here often several minutes after you post them – I’m 23 minutes behind in the queue right now.

Don Gately: Holding hope that Walker gets the HoF nod this year?
Keith Law: I would love to see that. I voted for him.

Scherzers_Blue_Eye: The Mets get a lot of flack, but how poorly run are the Rockies, already looking to deal Arenado a year after his mega-deal?
Keith Law: They’re probably the front office with whose moves and strategy I disagree most right now. Not saying I’m right, by any stretch, but that I think I don’t understand what they’re doing, at least more so than I do for other orgs.

Noah: Why wohld the Rays give Matthew Liberatore up seemingly so easily. Any red flags?
Keith Law: No red flags. I’ve looked into it.

Extra Spicy: With three managerial openings and Dusty Baker still wanting to manage, do you think he gets one of the jobs? And do you think he’ll be good at it?
Keith Law: Given where we are in the calendar, yes, I do, and I would like to think – given his improvement each stop – he would indeed be good at it.

John: Nolan Arenado has a OPS of 770 to 880 away from Coors the past 3 yrs w/ a batting avg around 260-275. Does that mean he’s a Moustakas or Chapman offensive type talent if he gets traded?
Keith Law: There’s 25 years of data now that you can’t just look at the road stats of Rockies’ hitters to project what they’ll do away from Coors (or Mile High). I think he’ll continue to hit at a well above-average level.

Kevin: Can we get Jim Leyland back as a manager just to get shots of him smoking cigarettes in the dugout?
Keith Law: He’d probably be Juuling.

Jeff: Which Corbin will have the better 2020 as a starter – Burnes or Martin? Patrick will obviously top the list.
Keith Law: Still very high on Martin when he returns, but that probably won’t be in 2020. Burnes I think has a mechanical adjustment to make to get back to where he was in 2018, but I don’t see any reason he can’t do so.

Grant: Judas Priest got passed over for the Hall of Fame. I mean come on…
Keith Law: The R&R Hall is kind of a joke. It’s like if the Baseball Hall didn’t have the writers vote, and just used the crony committees for every selection. Priest, Pat Benatar, Motorhead, and Soundgarden were all snubbed and all have excellent cases (Soundgarden especially as influencers, and I guess Benatar for similar reasons as the rare woman in rock, although I’ll never get over how bad the “Love is a Battlefield” video is).

Matt W: Any chance Eduardo Perez would still take the Mets job? Otherwise it seems like it’ll be Jeff Wilpon as Mr. Manager
Keith Law: I’d support that.

Larry: Fangraphs mentioned Corbin Carroll’s exit velocity being surprisingly high. Do you think he has 25+ home run upside? If so, that probably makes him a superstar, no?
Keith Law: He might be a superstar, yes. He has more power than people expect given his height. I had him #4 in the draft class for a reason (that reason being I think he’s a star).

addoeh: If you gave me a choice for “Emerson Hancock, college baseball pitcher or signer of the Declaration of Independence” I would have chosen the latter.
Keith Law: I swear I made that exact joke to Emma Span the other day.
Keith Law: Three of the four 1-1 candidates have great names. Hancock is one. Spencer Torkelson is another. Austin Martin is practically a British luxury car brand. Poor JT Ginn is so ordinary in comparison.

Ridley: Do you watch any online/YouTube cooking shows? We’ve been, um, binging “Binging with Babish” and “What’s Eating Dan” and I find myself enjoying them far more than anything that’s being broadcast these days.
Keith Law: I haven’t – the only cooking show I’ve watched in the last year is GBBO.

Robert: Watching Luis Robert, I am impressed by how hard he plays (scoring from 2nd on a sac fly, beating out infield grounders, etc.). If he wasn’t so physically gifted, would he be more likely to get the “grinder” label?
Keith Law: Well, that’s one reason he’s not tabbed as a “grinder,” but there’s a more prominent reason I can think of…

Dan: Unless Costco has become a purveyor of high-quality meat, I would really suggest not purchasing pork belly there. Find a local small producer and support them. Yes it will be quite a bit more expensive, but meat should be. There’s a reason most of humanity didn’t eat it in large quantities until pretty recently.
Keith Law: I missed that but yes, I don’t buy much red meat these days anyway, but when I do it’s from Whole Foods or a local butcher. That’s a privilege I have, of course, but also I’d rather spend more per pound but buy less of it in total.

Drew_Tomlinson: Where do you think board games go from here? Already some discussion the bubble is bursting.
Keith Law: I haven’t heard any such discussion. I do think there are too many games getting released, but that’s not the same thing; the level of demand is nowhere close to its potential.

Mike: Is organic fruit BS ?
Keith Law: I mean, it’s organic, it’s just not any better for you. Buy what tastes best. That’s probably local; it might be organic but doesn’t have to be. I think organic makes the most difference in eggs, to be honest; unless you can get eggs from a local farm organic eggs will probably give you the highest quality (especially the strongest membrane around the yolk, so they stay intact while cooking).

Dave: Losing their 1st and 2nd round picks effectively tanks their entire drafts, right? Something like 60% of the total slot $ is tied up in those two picks.
Keith Law: Yes, teams that have had this situation recently have gotten nothing from their drafts: the Cubs in 2016 and Cardinals in 2017 had zero day-one picks between them, and neither has produced a big leaguer or a significant prospect yet.

Matt: Favorite Richard Russo book?
Keith Law: 1. Empire Falls 2. Straight Man 3. Nobody’s Fool 4. The Risk Pool

KT: do you plan on watching 1917?
Keith Law: I plan to see the remaining four Best Picture nominees I haven’t seen – that, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, and Ford v. Ferrari – even though I can’t say I’m terribly excited about any of them. I just like to talk about the awards, and to do that you have to see all or most of the nominees. I will see all the international & animated nominees too.

Matt: Chris Shaw anything more than replacement-level in San Fran?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Jake: Do you find any benefit from self-journaling?
Keith Law: I have never done so, sorry.

Matt: Mendoza just released a statement saying that being an employee of the Mets doesn’t shape her opinion LOL. She must be reading the chat.
Keith Law: The criticism of those comments has been very widespread.

Chris: Hi Keith, Based on initial pro scouting looks are their any recent draft picks that you have heard being ranked higher than where they were picked last summer?
Keith Law: You’ll see in a month.
Keith Law: Actually it might be the week of 2/24, rather than 2/17. It’s my editors’ call but I believe it’ll be the former (later).

Mark: What do you see as the most likely role for Jazz Chisholm?
Keith Law: Star at shortstop.

Ben Z: Florence Pugh is now signed up to be in a bunch of Marvel movies. Let us wallow in sadness.
Keith Law: Well, good for her for getting paid, I guess.

Nolan: Keith, I live in a capitol city with truly dismal bagel options. I’ve toyed around with the idea of trying to make my own (on a small scale, at least at first) but ideally I’d like to replicate Montreal style bagels, which need a wood oven. Do you know of any way to replicate that process without actually having a wood oven?
Keith Law: I have made NY-style bagels with a baking soda solution for boiling (no lye, that seemed excessive) and was happy with the results, although I clearly need work on shaping.

Turner : Hi Keith. I’m leading an after school board game club and would like to add a few games from your list. Any suggestions for 10-14 year olds that can be played in an hour or less?
Keith Law: Any of the games I mentioned above would be good for this group. You could expand a bit with Carcassonne, Wingspan (if you can find it), Pandemic, New Bedford, Sagrada, Azul.

Will: Favorite Rush era?
Keith Law: I don’t think of them in terms of eras; I thought the Chronicles two-disc greatest hits set was incredible, but didn’t listen to anything after Roll the Bones (which was not good).

Jay: Proper response to Grant’s R&R HOF comment was that if they think they can keep Priest out they’ve got another thing coming (sorry)
Keith Law: Nice.

Guest: What is your favorite restaurant in the Phoenix area? -Tom J. Gilbert AZ
Keith Law: The Hillside Spot, Crepe Bar, FnB.

Porker: Not to mention, this administration removed quality standards on pork, so all the more important to know where it’s sourced.
Keith Law: The rollbacks in food quality, food safety, and environmental regulations should be the ideal talking point for whoever the Democratic candidate is, because those rules affect every single American, and rollbacks disproportionately hurt those less well-off who lack the resources or even the options that others have (to, say, buy meat at Whole Foods).

Mike Rizzo: If I offer Rutledge, Kieboom amd say tres barrera get me Kris Bryant?
Keith Law: No.

Frank: On your top 10 pros to be traded, how highly rated are they? Are we talking top 50, 100 or fringe level. Thanks
Keith Law: I think only two were on my top 100.
Keith Law: were/would be/whatever, it’s late

Chris: Which is more difficult to learn/teach: Wingspan or Taverns of Tiefenthal?
Keith Law: Taverns is a bit more involved because you have a lot to think about, but I found the turns really rolled (pun intended) once we got into it.

Ben Z: Holy god Joker is not a great movie. Phoenix is admirably going for it, but hes basically Freddie Quill from The Master (an actual masterpiece) but in a Scorsese rip off with no intellectual coherence.
Keith Law: Enough critics and people whose opinions on movies I value and trust have said this, or something similar to it, that I have my doubts that it is worth the accolades it’s received. I’ll see for myself soon.

John: Do you mind if your fans ask you questions about prospects under your articles on FB?
Keith Law: I don’t mind questions at all, but bear in mind I can’t answer every question I’m asked across all fora – I just don’t have time.

James: Any thoughts on the record breaking salary arbitrations? Bellinger, Betts, etc.?
Keith Law: Good. Owners are rolling in it. The players should get paid too.

Ryan: Per your recommendation, my wife and I had a date night just sitting at a bar playing 7 Wonders Duel. It was really enjoyable, thank you!
Keith Law: Love it. I feel like I see folks playing games in public more often now than I did five years ago – but maybe I just didn’t notice it before I was looking.

Brian: What did you eat at the meal at the Love that made it your favorite? I really enjoy it there, but it’s never struck me as being truly great (like Vernick or Vetri), but more very good.
Keith Law: Vernick remains the worst high-end meal I’ve had in Philly. An abject disaster, with one dish coming out burned. It was a process failure.
Keith Law: We had a pasta dish and a chocolate mousse, neither of which is on the menu now.

John-MN: I home make bagels with the baking soda bath too, you also want to get diastatic malt from a home brewing shop as well for the water bath, both for color and flavoring.
Keith Law: Interesting, haven’t heard that.
Keith Law: Thank you.

Dylan: How long does it take you to write a top 100 or top 50 prospect rankings
Keith Law: The top 100 takes about 4-5 weeks in total.

Kyle: what is your suggestion for someone easing alcohol use? AA? Other program? Therapist?
Keith Law: That’s definitely a question for a professional – ask a doctor.

Matt P: What specifically drew you to Vermont and is it the same thing(s) that keep you there?
Keith Law: Well, I’m not in Vermont, so … nothing? Also it’s really cold up there. There isn’t enough maple syrup in the world to overcome that.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions & for reading. Stay tuned for updates on the top 100, and remember you can pre-order my next book, The Inside Game, right now via Harper Collins or wherever fine books are sold.

Starting at 1 pm ET. I have two new pieces up at the Athletic this week: my introductory post and today’s column on some of what I look for when I evaluate players.

Keith Law: I dreamt that I was dreaming, I was wired to a clock. Klawchat.

Shaun: Does Clint Frazier bring back more in trade than a low level arm or nearer term reliever?
Keith Law: I think his trade value has largely evaporated over the last two years.

Ben: If you’re the Twins, would you part with any of Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Larnach for a #2-3 starter? I am assuming no #1s are available unless it’s a ridiculous package. Given their playoff annihilation I wonder whether a mid rotation guy will push the team to the next level.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t trade Kirilloff; I probably wouldn’t deal Lewis even with his swing issues. The second two I would deal for a mid-rotation guy without hesitation, although I agree that’s not really their need right now.

Aaron C.: Who does Klaw give the A’s 2B job to? Barreto, Mateo, Neuse or Pinder? These are all depressing choices.
Keith Law: Yes, yes they are.

PhillyJake: Has Ben Cherington been abducted by aliens? Seems overly quiet on the North shore of the Allegheny.
Keith Law: What should he have done? I’m really not clear on what moves he should have made already, with a bunch of decent free agents still on the market.

Aaron C.: Your favorite (restaurant) meal of 2019 was…?
Keith Law: 1. The Love, Philadelphia 2. Friday Saturday Sunday, Philadelphia 3. Juniper & Ivy, San Diego 4. The Purple Pig, Chicago 5. Brewery Bhavana, Raleigh

Deke: Noticed on Twitter you asked to be omitted from someone’s “best of baseball Twitter” bracket poll. Why didn’t you want to participate?
Keith Law: Why would I lend my name to that exercise? I don’t get anything from it, and the ‘bracket’ was almost entirely white men.

Alex: As a Braves fan, I am mostly feeling bloodyminded and hoping that MLB’s penalties against the Astros are at least as harsh as they were against the Braves. But the rational part of my brain accepts the propriety of fitting punishment to crime. So… in your view, normatively, what *should* be the punishment levied against the Astros and Red Sox?
Keith Law: I think what the Astros and Red Sox are accused of doing is worse than what the Braves did in the international market, but I also strongly believe MLB doesn’t see it that way for a variety of reasons, not least of which is that the Braves committed the greater baseball sin of trying to pay players more money.

xxx(yyy): any (brief?) thoughts on the upcoming season of Top Chef? will you be bringing back your episode reviews?
Keith Law: I have not watched the show in three years and have said several times I’m not doing reviews any more. They take up way too much time.

Arnold: Just wanted to say congrats on joining The Athletic. That’s been my favorite place to read about sports for the past year. I look forward to seeing your stuff there. My question…is there any Giants prospect without any major league time yet, who may have an impact on the team this year, perhaps later in the year?
Keith Law: It wouldn’t shock me to see Bart in the majors by August, if he’s healthy. That’s it, though.

Ray : What can one expect from Nick Solak in 2020? Will he play everyday in the Rangers lineup?
Keith Law: Think he’s an extra guy, not a regular. At the moment I don’t see playing time for him anyway.

Trey: Keith – Congrats on joining The Athletic! (I am a happy subscriber:) Cubs Q: given their current ‘near ready’ minor league talent (not much), current roster, and owner induced payroll cap, any chance the cubs can regain elite top 5 mlb status this year or next? Other than Ricketts giving Theo another $50M-75M to spend each of the next two offseasons, what can he do?
Keith Law: Money is the only real way out for the Cubs right now, who are good-but-maybe-not-good-enough at the major-league level and have a bottom-tier farm system without much trade capital.

TomBruno23: Did the Ricketts spend all of their money on the GOP and Wrigley to the point where we are to believe all they can do is all players on NRI deals?
Keith Law: That’s what they’re selling. Your choice whether to buy it.

Joe: Is there a provision for raising the luxury tax threshold? It seems that, with salaries for superstars (deservedly) rising, the threshold should increase to reflect this.
Keith Law: Yes, it went up $2 million for 2020, and goes up $2 million more for 2021.

Krontz: Can Nolan Jones stay at 3b for most of his MLB career? Or a corner OF/1b move likely?
Keith Law: I see a nonzero chance he stays at third.

Jason: You identified changeups, splitters, and cutters as out-pitches for opposite-side hitters. My understanding of the pitch movements is that changeups fall off toward the arm side, splitters tend to break straight down, and cutters break toward the glove side (though I was never a pitcher and stopped playing in junior high, so I recognize I could be off). Given the disparate natures of those pitches, why are they all so effective in getting out opposite-side hitters?
Keith Law: Nothing to do with movement; everything to do with how the pitches appear out of the pitcher’s hand, and whether they resemble fastballs or breaking balls.

barbeach: KLAW: Happy New Year! Congrats on the move to The Athletic…it prompted me to subscribe. Do you see a path for Deivi Garcia to crack the NYY major league roster this year? Thanks as always.
Keith Law: Yes, I do. Cole is locked in for 30 starts, but Tanaka has long pitched with an elbow issue, Paxton gets hurt quite a bit, Severino missed all of 2019, Montgomery is just barely back from TJ. There will be starts available.

David: Congratulations on the new job Keith! Like you, I spend a lot of time working from home but struggle sometimes separating home life from work. I feel like I’m always doing both (fitting in trips to the grocery store in the middle of the work day; doing work in the evening and night.) How do you balance your time? Do you struggle with time management like I do?
Keith Law: Don’t worry so much about ‘time management’ and focus instead on what you need to accomplish each day. FWIW, I use non-work things to break up my work day, since it’s hard for me to just sit and write for hours upon hours without a respite.

Tariq: It appears that the A’s swung wildly and missed on consecutive top 10 picks in 17 and 18 in Austin Beck and Kyler Murray – do you think that it was a flawed approach from the start or do you understand their high risk/high reward in retrospect? Congrats on the new job!
Keith Law: Two different picks, two different processes. I still don’t think they blew it on Murray … nobody thought he’d become that good an NFL prospect at the time he was drafted. The criticism, if any, would be that they didn’t accurately assess his desire to play baseball.

Hank: Hey Keith! How do you view Tucker Davidson and Kyle Muller and will they contribute in 2020? Thanks!
Keith Law: Davidson’s a fifth starter, Muller more a mid-rotation guy, would guess neither contributes much in 2020 given who’s ahead of them.

Trey: Hi Keith – Any plans on updating your top 100 books this year? And, any spy novel recommendations (a more modern Le Carre perhaps)?
Keith Law: That list requires a lot of work, and right now I don’t have a lot of free time.

Alex: Do you think the 3b from Vanderbilt (Lewis) can play SS at the big league level?
Keith Law: If you mean Austin Martin, I have only seen him play an excellent 3b, but never seen him at SS. He’ll play short this spring, and we’ll get our answer.

Roger: You appear to have been right all along about Austin Riley, but my question is if you were Atlanta would you trade him before his value completely tanks?
Keith Law: He played nearly a whole summer in the majors and didn’t hit at all, with pitch data that really doesn’t help his cause. His value is already at a local minimum.

Jim: First off, welcome again to The Athletic! What do you see as what’s going on with Donaldson? Based on what some sources (e.g., MLBTraderumors) are saying, it looks to me like it’s not so much waiting out a bidding war as the market falling apart because nobody wants to meet his demands. Thanks!
Keith Law: No idea, sorry. That is not an area I cover, and that hasn’t changed with the job. We have plenty of other writers who’ll wade in the rumor mire.

Christopher: You work for the Athletic now????
Keith Law: Big, if true.

BigDaddeh: If the Cubs put Yu Darvish’s remaining contract on irrevocable waivers, would someone take it? Is it not even underwater anymore given the new market climate?
Keith Law: Teams would fight to take it.

TomBruno23: Latest episode of The Inquiry, “Why was Qasem Soleimani killed?”, is a clear, concise and informative listen on the current situation.
Keith Law: Of course it is – The Inquiry (from the BBC) is consistently smart despite being so concise.

David (Denver): The Rockies are going to sell way too low on Arenado, aren’t they? I’m enthused for yet another underwhelming return of young pitching that never develops.
Keith Law: I don’t understand jumping to extend him and THEN trying to trade him. It looks indecisive.

tempo: What are your thoughts on two of my favorite metal bands – Slayer and System of a Down?
Keith Law: I enjoy peak Slayer, basically RIB through Seasons. By the late ’90s they’d really stopped producing anything novel, unfortunately, but that’s true for all the ’80s thrash icons.

ryan: keith, its awesome your with the athletic now. what made you switch jobs?
Keith Law: I have already written quite a bit about that in my newsletter.

Alan: If the Sox move Mookie to LAD and Lux is off the table what is a good return package in your opinion?
Keith Law: If I’m the Red Sox I am insisting on May and one of the catchers in the deal, at a bare minimum. It’s Mookie Fucking Betts, people.

Dee Arby: If Moniak wasn’t taken #1, how far do you think he would have slid down the draft board?
Keith Law: He was going in the top 5-6 picks anyway … he was pretty famous, hit well enough at showcases, and scouts liked the kid’s makeup a lot (too much).

Anthony: Thoughts on the White Sox offseason? Been incredibly busy, but does it translate into anything in 2020 and beyond?
Keith Law: Yes, I think it does.
Keith Law: I also don’t think they’re done.

Kyle B: Do you think there’s going to be a work stoppage when this CBA expires?
Keith Law: I will know a lot more about that once I get into this job some more and start my reporting on the labor talks.

Shlomo Zinger: Thoughts on Mike King?
Keith Law: Reliever.

Tinker: What do you think about Chris Shaw and his future? His career path / numbers remind me of Max Muncy!
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s more than an emergency callup.

John: Hi Keith. Loved Smart Baseball. Can’t wait for your next book. Do you see Loaisiga or any of their other young arms being viable bullpen replacements for Betances or will the Yanks need to sign/trade for another power arm in the pen? Thanks.
Keith Law: Given all of Loaisiga’s arm problems, can he work back to back days like most relievers do? I don’t know the answer but I think it’d be an issue for him.

Salty: Not sure if you saw the story of Lassiter vs NY Yankees. Was wondering if you’ve ever seen a grievance taken that far, and if it reached dismissal status only because he was representing himself.
Keith Law: It wasn’t a grievance, but a lawsuit, and to be honest it sounds like Lassiter isn’t well and might need real help. The media coverage I’ve seen seems to be making fun of him (it’s easy, he’s claiming this massive conspiracy against him).

NYYMatt99: Do you agree with Manfred cutting minor league teams? He seems to be doing everything possible to stop baseball from growing
Keith Law: That’s not a yes/no question. I wrote about it October for ESPN and will certainly revisit the topic for the Athletic because it’s a lot more complicated than “cutting minor league teams.”

Chris: Think the Mets deal Dom Smith or he remains a bench bat this season?
Keith Law: I have to think they trade him … he’s more valuable in trade than as a 300 AB (if that) bench player.

Appa Yip Yip: How do you think the Jays starting pitching looks over the next couple of years? They have Ryu, hopefully Pearson, then an amorphous mass of dudes at AAA lead by probably Anthony Kay. How do you see it shaking out?
Keith Law: Lot of guys who could be average or better if healthy, but who have dicey health outlooks, including Ryu. Murphy might be #2 behind Pearson if we knew he’d stay healthy.

Mike: Do you get the same royalty when Amazon drops the price of your bookin the Kindle store?
Keith Law: No, it’s a percentage of the purchase price.

John G: Clarke Schmidt or Michael King as Yankees’ long-term no. 4 or 5?
Keith Law: Schmidt might be a starter; King is not.

jayB: Thoughts on the new I lnfield Outs stats? Other than Baez was still robbed in GG voting
Keith Law: Mike Petriello pointed out that it’s useful but incomplete, and you can see that in some of the leaders.
Keith Law: A lot of batted ball types aren’t included.

Kuipers HR: Obviously, I’d rather Indians keep Lindor. But if they’re not going to put even half the $ they’ve saved into team, trading him is next less-worse option. No?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Bobby Northside: When will we see SP throw 250+ innings again? How can we make it happen?
Keith Law: Never. Even a pitcher who might be capable of doing so will not be allowed to do so because you’re better off with relievers facing hitters for the first time than starters facing hitters for the 3rd/4th time.

Moe Mentum: There’s a 3rd Siani brother on the horizon. Is he on your radar yet, or is it too early still?
Keith Law: He’s next year.

Kevin W.: Does our country (and democracy) ever recover from the last 4 years?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Ben: Just finished Confederacy of Dunces and loved it. The whole time I was reading it, I couldn’t help but picture Ignatius as Buster Bluth. Did you have anyone in mind for his character as you read it?
Keith Law: I read it ~20 years ago, so I don’t remember thinking he was anything but Ignatius himself.

Kevin W.: What happened to Aubrey huff?
Keith Law: Nothing. This is who he’s always been.

John G: Why aren’t the Rockies talking trades for Jon Gray, not just Arenado? Dude seems prime for a restart somewhere to shine
Keith Law: I agree – he’s done about as well as you could have hoped with the Rockies but I could see him going somewhere else and exploding like Cole did with Houston.

Mike D: Why would Cleveland want to shop Lindor and Clevinger instead of building around them? Does not seem to make sense to me.
Keith Law: Then they’d have to spend money.

Kevin W.: Will you continue free agent write-ups at the athletic?
Keith Law: Yes, depending on how significant the player and contract are.

Mart Yanh: Law! Congrats on the new job! Do u think Mookie Betts *wants* to remain in Boston long term?
Keith Law: He wants to go to free agency to maximize his value. That’s his right as a player.

Andy: Does the proposed shortening of the draft help college baseball (more kids coming and staying longer) or make it worse (top prospects more likely to go the minors.) I know it’ll definitely be a whole lot worse for the college kids with less senior signs.
Keith Law: The better senior signs will still get signed; the worst senior signs will no longer have automatic paths into pro ball, but their odds of seeing the majors were minuscule. They could go play indy ball or in this new “Dream League” if that proposal came to fruition, and if they do well enough, they’d get opportunities in pro ball. Senior signs only typically get $1000 as a bonus, and then the pathetic first-year minor league salary, so it’s not as if MLB is getting rid of lucrative jobs here.

Eric: Just a statement for the MAGA people: If you support the troops, you should be vehemently against war, especially ones based off ego and narcissism.
Keith Law: The best way to support the troops is to bring them all home.

Mike D: Are you heading to ST this year? Florida or Arizona?
Keith Law: I go to both every year.

Moshe Rabeinu: How far away is Florial?
Keith Law: His pitch recognition hasn’t gotten better in the last year-plus, and he’s been hurt, so right now I don’t see what his role is in the majors.

Blangadanger: Had a chance to play Parks over the holidays. An excellent, quick and immersive game with gorgeous art of US National Parks. Have you had a chance to play?
Keith Law: I haven’t, but it was on my list of 2019 games I wanted to try but never got to play. I’ve heard great things.

Dirk Gently: Let’s say MLB suspends Jeff Luhnow for a year — how do they keep Luhnow from simply working remotely, directing his assistants on what to do, etc.? Are they going to be able to spot check cell phones/emails? And would it be that hard for Luhnow to do is job remotely that way?
Keith Law: Yes, they would be able to check or ask for cell phone records, emails, etc.

Evan: Are your prospect packages going to follow a similar format as they did in ESPN, or will you change it up?
Keith Law: Editorial decision. The content will be very similar.

Adam: hey Keith, subscribed to your newsletter but after your most recent e-mail went out. Is there any way to read the post online?
Keith Law: On the signup page there’s a “letter archive” link.

Jason: Will Monte Harrison amount to anything?
Keith Law: The odds are very much against him … the approach is nowhere near good enough, despite the tools.

Nick: What do you make of JD Davis season last year? His defensive struggles aside, do you think he continues to make an ascension to potential star?
Keith Law: No, I think that was his peak.

Big Fan: Hi Keith, congrats on the move! Do you have any insight into where or when Josh Donaldson will sign?
Keith Law: No, that is not and has never been something I cover.

Nick: Dom Smith for Tarik Skubal. Who says no?
Keith Law: Pretty sure the Tigers would say no.
Keith Law: Skubal might be their best pitching prospect at this moment.

Sean: Bart, Ramos and Hjelle are being sold to us Giants fans as the first wave of the future. Should I get excited or pump the brakes a bit?
Keith Law: Their system is improved, but not yet good. They’re a draft or two away from that, and they didn’t add any prospects at the deadline last year, I assume because the team had a bit of a mirage run of contention.

Grant: Which books coming out in 2020 are you most excited to read?
Keith Law: I don’t really track those unless it’s an author I especially like (Jasper Fforde has one coming).

PA Prospects: What high schoolers will you be watching locally this spring?
Keith Law: Near me, probably nobody. Austin Hendrick is a prospect but on the other side of the state from me.

Andy: Bring them home, and then fund the programs to help them with their physical and mental well being.
Keith Law: We both know that’ll never happen. You’re asking politicians to spend money that doesn’t produce results they can show off for the cameras.
Keith Law: Evidence-based treatments for PTSD etc. exist, but they’re tough sells to constituents.

Jesse B: Do you think Honeywell can still throw the screwball? Do you think he can still be a starter?
Keith Law: After two missed years, he’s probably going to end up in relief.

BenL: Congrats on the new gig, Klaw! Just a housekeeping question: Klawchats to continue here, be moved to the Athletic’s site as this new venture takes shape, combination of both? Thanks, as always
Keith Law: Klawchats are here and will stay here for the foreseeable future.

Matt W: I agree the Mets should free Dom Smith but with their depth as thin as it is, can they really afford to part with more of it? Have you seen their list of ST invites?? Egads.
Keith Law: It’s OK, they have Tebow.

John: How much of the Phillies issues in the draft do you think are down to bad draft evaluation (ie, you didn’t love the picks at the start), poor player development after they drafted the guys, or just bad luck? The poor drafts have obviously really hindered their teardown/rebuild
Keith Law: They’ve chosen poorly more than anything else.

Erik: Awkwafina’s gonna lose Best Actress to another cosplayer. Will the Academy ever change?
Keith Law: That’s always the safe bet, right? Who played a historical figure, or played a character with a disability, or played a character who was LGBT+? I only get worked up about the Oscars because they mean money: if your film wins something, more people will go see it, and more money for good films should mean more money for good films in the future.

Dave: Trump: hawk or dove? Displays both at times
Keith Law: LOL, don’t fall for it, Dave.

Bradley: Thoughts on the Luis Robert deal? Seems to be a good deal for the player’s long term financial secure and nice to not see blatant service time manipulation from a team. Win win?
Keith Law: Win win, mostly. He has no leverage in this situation and the team has it all, but he did fairly well for a player with 0 MLB games, and I’m glad to see the White Sox pushing this model of paying prospects early.

PD: Have you addressed how your coverage with interact with Sickels?
Keith Law: It doesn’t. My coverage is independent of anything else at the Athletic. I’ll do more or less the same stuff I did for ESPN+, just at a new site, and over time adding some additional types of content like labor coverage.

dan: Tony Gonsolin Future starter or Reliever?
Keith Law: Yes, he will be one of those things.

jeff: does skubal come up before mize?
Keith Law: Mize finished 2019 hurt, and didn’t look right just before he got hurt, so right now Skubal is closer to his debut despite Mize’s pedigree and superior pitch mix.

Ron: Twins need a first baseman. Wouldn’t trying to work a trade with the Mets for Dom Smith make sense? Better than trying to sign Donaldson? What would it take?
Keith Law: What do they have that the Mets would value for 2020? The Mets are trying to win now, but so are the Twins. Do the Twins have surplus somewhere I’m not thinking of? Maybe if a third team is involved and the Twins send a prospect to team 3 and get Smith, so team 3 sends the Mets whatever it is they need (pitching?).

Brian: Let’s be honest, the guy that claimed he would cancel the subscription to The Athletic that he doesn’t currently have because of your hiring will be tough to top.
Keith Law: That was quite special.

Kevin: Do you think Dalbec will be the Red Sox opening day 1B in 2020?
Keith Law: I do not.

jeff: Gore over 125 IP in 2020? rookie of the year?
Keith Law: Unlikely, and almost certainly not.

Todd: Are Mets fans over estimating Steve Cohen as an owner? Just because someone has ample means doesnt necessarily mean they’re a great baseball owner
Keith Law: I think Mets fans are latching on to the fact that he is Not a Wilpon.

Turner : If DL Hall were to improve his control this year, would he have #2 starter potential?
Keith Law: He has #2 starter potential already, if he improves both his command and his control.

Sam: Will you be active at all in the comments section of your articles?
Keith Law: No, again, no time for that. I’d rather chat here and leave it at that.

Eric: How worried would you be about giving a 4 year deal to 34 year old Donaldson? Better than trading prospects for Bryant?
Keith Law: Someone asked earlier at what point Donaldson should just take the best deal … if he has viable four-year offers on the table, he should take one. Given his age and some of his injury history, that feels like more than he should have reasonably expected from the market.
Keith Law: I’d rather trade something for Bryant, but of course we don’t know what that ‘something’ is.

Danial: Looking forward to more klawtent; does your new job come with new leeway or restrictions and how can we expect that to be reflected in your work?
Keith Law: I don’t know how to answer that other than to say keep reading. I don’t think I have more leeway in prospect coverage. ESPN never restricted me there.

Ben: Theoretical Question: Your world series window is the next 1-2 years. If you have a prospect who is guaranteed to be a lights-out reliever right now and has the potential to be a top-end starter but isn’t ready yet, do you use them in the bullpen now before your window closes, or screw the window and think about the best use of the asset?
Keith Law: David Price 2008. I use the guy in relief right now, judiciously (like, don’t burn him out by using him three days in a row).

Todd: Keith, why do republicans just deny climate change? Is it strictly business related denial?
Keith Law: The Party itself? Yes. Climate change mitigation is bad for many industries, including coal, oil/gas, mining, and much manufacturing, so their opposition to it is a financial matter – they do not face future costs of a warmed and damaged planet.

Mark R: Any decent Disney eats this year?
Keith Law: We ate at the Holiday Festival kiosks more than anything else.
Keith Law: That’s probably it for Disneyworld trips for me for a while, since I no longer have the magic pass.

Oliver: It’s kind of weird that the Padres traded for Taylor Trammell and Trent Grisham then blocked each of them in LF for the next two years with Tommy Pham. With Myers stuck (sigh) in RF because Hosmer is entrenched at 1B (heavy sigh), can either play good enough CF defense to make up for the shortcomings of Myers and Pham?
Keith Law: Myers ends up on the bench or released. He’s not blocking anybody.

Jason S: In 2025, is Kelenic, Rodriguez and Marte the best OF in baseball?
Keith Law: The easy answer is ‘no,’ since 1) that’s five years away and 2) we have no idea if all three will stay healthy and develop up to their potential.

Rico: What are your expectations for Gavin Lux this year and long-term?
Keith Law: I think he’s an All-Star in the long term, an above-average regular right now, and the best argument for the Dodgers not trading for Lindor this winter.

Rico: Benintendi struggled last year after a breakout 2018. Any reason for the increasing K% and lack of power? What do you expect going forward?
Keith Law: I don’t know what’s gone wrong with him; in a year when everyone seemed to hit the ball harder and hit for more power, he hit for less. It’s easy to say it’s in his swing – there is some of that – but his approach, esp vs LHP, has gone backwards too.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all for the kind words on my move to the Athletic, and for continuing to show up here for Klawchats. I’ll keep these going on Thursdays until we get to spring training and travel gets in the way. In the meantime, watch this space or my email newsletter for further announcements on upcoming content!

My latest ESPN+ post covers a few stray transactions from the winter meetings, including the Nomar Mazara trade and the Tanner Roark signing, and my latest Paste column reviews the new games I saw at PAX Unplugged.

Keith Law: Klawchat. When you gonna ring it?

Moe Mentum: Any predictions on where Odubel Herrera will be when spring training starts – or ends?
Keith Law: Not with the Phillies. I wonder if some awful team – the Tigers, the Orioles – will decide he’s worth the backlash, because he has ability and they’d probably just be able to take him off the Phils’ hands for nothing. (I wouldn’t do so, but I’m saying someone probably will.)

JK: What changed from last year to this year to spur so much more activity at Winter Meetings?
Keith Law: I don’t quite know, but I’m thrilled. The Yankees getting in heavy helped, as did the Nats winning the World Series and making a serious, immediate push to retain one of their two big FA. Mike Rizzo doesn’t hesitate when he wants a player – he signed Corbin early last year, and signed Jayson Werth once upon a time while I was between the airport and the winter meetings on day one (or zero). He also probably gave this a nudge.

Delco Debo: Based on the Cole & Rendon contracts, is it fair to say that Harper & Machado deals do not age terribly & neither team should feel buyer’s remorse (contrary to what local Philly sports radio might be spewing)? Phillies & Padres both get longer tail of players primes.
Keith Law: Neither team should have any regrets about those contracts. Sports radio takes shouldn’t dictate what anyone thinks about sports.

Josh L from Garnet Valley: In the event you’ve read, would you recommend Dune?
Keith Law: The first book is wonderful. Everything that comes after it is trash.

Tony: It feels like the Phillies are throwing away so much value by constantly moving Kingery around defensively, and now with the Gregorious signing, there’s talk he’ll be playing third instead of second. Why won’t they just put him at second and let him excel?
Keith Law: That’s also what I would do, but Segura has never played 3b anywhere in pro ball. They needed a shortstop, so they got one, and now they have two second basemen and no current third baseman. If Segura can play third, problem solved. If not, they may put Kingery at third, where his arm doesn’t play, and now we have a new problem.

Josh L from Garnet Valley: What are your favorite modern christmas songs? Feel like the Pogues Fairytale of NY is criminally underrated
Keith Law: I just heard that one for the first time the other day, as it turns out. I still say Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas” is the best new Christmas song of the last ~40 years.

Dave: Lots of rumors that Kyle Seager is on the block. Is it reasonable that Seattle can get anything useful for him, or is this just salary dump territory?
Keith Law: About $40 million left for two years, probably projects to 4-5 total wins in that period. If they chip in a little cash, I think they could get real value back.

Mike: Is it reasonable to think Andrew Vaughn’s ceiling is Freddie Freeman?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s the shape of Vaughn’s production if he hits his ceiling.

Deke: If you’re the Rangers, is it Donaldson or bust now? What do you do with the rest of this offseason?
Keith Law: He’s an ideal fit, but does it have to be him or nothing else? What about upgrading other spots, like second base?

Julio Rodriguez: Where do I rank as a prospect out of these options? Top-5, top-10, top-20, top-50, or top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: I won’t publish prospect rankings until probably the start of February, and I’m not going to spoil them now.

JR: You mentioned the Porcello signing for the Mets in your recent recap, but not Wacha. Guessing you view it same as me – decent depth move at a reasonable price with the hope he bounces back, but easy to cut him if he’s done.
Keith Law: Wacha came after I wrote that, I think. He’s also missed chunks of two straight seasons and last year was a disaster. Bit of a flier, low cost for them. Not a bad gamble.

Greg P: KLaw – any of the Rule 5 picks going to amount to anything or is it just a waste of time?
Keith Law: I wrote up the two picks I liked in the column linked at the top of this post. The rule 5 draft remains largely a waste of time.

Kyle KS: How do you treat Hyun-jin Ryu in free agency if you’re running a team? Plan on 25 starts a year out of a really good pitcher and anything over is just bonus?
Keith Law: Maybe put him on the peak Pedro plan, where he’s getting an extra day of rest every time the schedule permits it, maybe skipping a start here or there, to try to get 150-160 great innings and have him in October.

Sam: What was the difference between this year and the last few where things seemed to return to normal on the free agency market and not waiting until spring training for many of the top tier guys to sign?
Keith Law: One other hypothesis: Boras had the top 3 free agents, plus a few other major ones. It wasn’t Boras vs Lozano, like last year. Maybe one agent controlling the top end of the market made a difference.

Alex: The Giants effectively purchased a first round pick for $12M. What are your thoughts on the strategy and do you think teams will do this more? Do you think MLB has an issue with this because one of the argument against trading draft picks was they will be sold to the high market teams?
Keith Law: I think MLB has an issue with it because it reveals how badly first-round picks are underpaid.

Ben: What comes to mind when you hear “Baz Luhrmann + Master and Marg”?
Keith Law: I said to someone else on Twitter that I take hope in the fact that every previously reported adaptation of TM&M has failed to come to fruition.

Stanyon Turtze: Do you have a gut feeling as to how much (if any) correction there will be to the HR rates & distance in the coming season?
Keith Law: No, not at all. You can’t without knowing what the baseballs will be like this year.

Eric: am i being hyperbolic in thinking the end of the republic is near? one side, for the last 10 years, has broken every rule and norm and gaslights the country on a daily basis, while the other just tries to play nice and get stomped over on the reg. i think we’re at the point where “rules” and “norms” in government aren’t upholdable anymore.
Keith Law: If Trump wins re-election next November, I’d feel that way.

Debra: Do you still project Deivi Garcia to start? Or does the future reside in the bullpen? Still a top 50 prospect in your estimation?
Keith Law: Nothing has changed since I ranked him top 50 in July. He’s small, but I think he has the stuff to start.

Jeff: Dodgers linked to Lindor & Clevinger a lot recently, what would be a fair exchange for both sides in your opinion?
Keith Law: Depends on whether Seager is in the deal, but I think the Dodgers would have to put Keibert Ruiz, one of Josiah Gray/Tony Gonsolin, and Jeter Downs in such a trade. Cleveland shouldn’t sell those two guys for less than a home run package and I think that would be one.

Dylan: Going to Denver-area in May for a show at Red Rocks. Rockies are out of town, but any other recommendations for cool things to do/see/experience/eat in the area? Preferably low/middle budget.
Keith Law: (Nate Dogg voice) Smoke weed every day.
Keith Law: Also, i can’t recommend things to do in Denver unless I know if you’re dead.

Tom: Hey Keith, right before the Bundy trade, I saw posts from multiple people about how the O’s completely mishandled him. Do you agree, and where do you think they went wrong? Converting him to a starter in mid-2016 after he’d missed 3 years with injuries?
Keith Law: I have been banging that drum for at least four years now.

Trevor: What type of package would it take for the Reds to acquire Mookie Betts? It seems that they are trying to go all-in this year and that would be the ultimate all-in move. Does it start with Lodolo? Hunter Greene?
Keith Law: They no longer have the pieces to get it done. They squandered them to get Alex Wood and Yasiel Puig and Trevor Bauer.

Jeff: Klaw, do you think that the Central is there for the taking for a team like Cincinnati? Generally speaking (without knowing the cost), would they be best served by adding another bat like Ozuna/Castellanos, or an arm like Bumgarner/Ryu? Thanks for all that you do.
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re close enough to St. Louis or Milwaukee right now. If they would go pay for one of those starters, that might change the equation for me.

Adam: Fan reaction to the Padres’ trading of Buddy Reed made it apparent that he was one of the most overrated prospects in the farm system. Inversely, which prospect in the Padres’ system do you think the organization values much higher than the rest of the industry?
Keith Law: Who overrated him? I’ve always maintained that he can’t hit, back to when he was at Florida. You can’t watch him swing and think that’s going to work. He was just kind of famous.

Pat D: What’s worse, the ghiblis or the jibblies? (Or the jibblie jibblies?)
Keith Law: The number of people who’d get both ends of that joke (this is about something I tweeted today) is pretty small, but I’m sure I’d be friends with them all.

Jim: Pretty underwhelming first couple of additions to the Chaim Bloom era, no? Any thoughts on the two signings?
Keith Law: Underwhelming? What did you expect them to do? They had no place for Rendon, and it was clear ownership wouldn’t open up the wallet for Cole or Strasburg.

Brendan: Any idea why no one from the MLBPA (or a top free agent they’d be interested in signing) hasn’t challenged the Yankees facial hair rule?
Keith Law: I’ve wondered that myself. It’s such petty bullshit, and would never pass a challenge by a player who grew his beard for his religion (e.g., some Sunni Muslims or observant Jews).

Anthony: Jeter seems like a lock, but since it’s HoF season, what are your thoughts on Abreu, the other good first-year player? He reached 60 WAR & could still be a 5% candidate.
Keith Law: He’s kind of behind Rolen for me in the category of players the writers as a whole will likely undervalue … but Abreu is borderline for me too. As of right now, he’s off my ballot, and that’s even with an open spot.

Anthony: Reports in Milwaukee that the team lost money due to the high payroll despite solid attendance figures. Is this actually possible in this day and age or just media spin to get fans on board with shedding salary for a tear down?
Keith Law: (wanking motion)

Jacoby: Is MLB worried that the Astros sign-stealing mess is just a donut hole in the middle of a donut that’s actually inside of another donut hole in the middle of an even bigger donut?
Keith Law: Nicely played. My gut feeling on this is that they’re dragging out the investigation to try to figure out who the highest-profile figure is they can suspend (or worse) for this.

Max: What are your main reasons for why this Mariners rebuild looks promising thus far?
Keith Law: Objection. Leading the chat answerer.

Matt: Were you surprised that the Angels basically took the offer they made to Cole and just gave it Rendon? I would have guessed any offer to the latter would have been somewhat lower.
Keith Law: Is it? I thought they offered Cole more, but I could be wrong.

SPORTS RADIO: WE DEFINITELY SHOULD DICTATE WHAT EVERYONE THINKS! REMEMBER THAT RYAN HOWARD IS THE PRE-EMINENT POWER HITTER OF OUR TIME, KEITH!
Keith Law: He’ll never, ever admit he was wrong.

Andrew V: Have you or are you planning to read Catch and Kill?
Keith Law: Nope.

MikeM: Where does Betances end up and can he be as effective as he was before all the injuries?
Keith Law: Again, I can’t do much with health questions.

Jason: Would it be wise for the brewers to trade Hader? Or is it dumb to trade a guy who is that dominant with 4 years left of control?
Keith Law: Absolutely I would trade him, because the odds of him staying healthy and this good for four more years, based on the history of relief pitchers, are somewhere south of 10%.

Brandon J.: Probably rightfully so, the Dodgers have made it known that they do not plan to move Lux and or May. But if a Cleveland deal involving Lindor and Clevenger was in the works, should they deal these two plus additional prospects?
Keith Law: See above – and notice that I also excluded Lux and May.

Scott: I read your top music of the year column. I am curious as to where you find your music? I have Sirius and listen to a variety of stations but even then I had not heard of several of them.
Keith Law: All over the place. There is no one place. I ‘try’ a lot of stuff, too, because there’s just so much new music out there.

Aaron: Ashamed to admit I only learned about Jen Mac Ramos’ work after hearing about that tragic car accident. While reading the outpouring of love from you and others, I was genuinely curious if you (or a reader) could point me to some material that would help me better understand – in general – preferred/appropriate pronoun usage?
Keith Law: GLSEN has a good, short resource (PDF) on the topic.
Keith Law: By the way, if it bothers you (not you, Aaron, the general you) to have someone else tell you their pronouns, you should probably have a long talk with yourself about why.

Mike: Was Paying $12 million to obtain Will Wilson a wise use of resources?
Keith Law: Of course.

Paul: Does Mazara still have any mystery to him?
Keith Law: He’s 24, so you can’t give up on him, but his approach hasn’t changed in four years now – even though the Rangers worked extensively with him on it.

James Beard: Do you watch any cooking shows? What about home reno shows?
Keith Law: Right now, just GBBO. Home reno shows tend to bore me.

Jake: I’ve always wanted to read Dune, but the big-budget movie is probably my most anticipated film of 2020 (Villanueve is a genius), and now I have the age-old question: book first or movie first?
Keith Law: I always read the book first if I can.
Keith Law: I read David Copperfield in September because Iannucci’s film version is coming out … eventually?

Brian: Assuming Kieboom is probably going to be the 2nd or 3rd baseman for Washington, should they be targeting the best guy regardless of position for the other spot?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. I also want them to settle on a single position for Kieboom, so they don’t Kingery him.

Michael: What did you eat in SD?
Keith Law: All the things. Mission, Bird Rock, Juniper & Ivy, Crack Shack, Rovino Foodery, Herb & Wood.

The Vandy man can: Where does David Price end up? What kind of return can the sox expect?
Keith Law: Feels like no trade is most likely. Will he pass a physical/review of his records even if someone agrees to take his contract?

Matt: Are the Cubs putting Bryant on the trade block solely for financial reasons? Or are there actual baseball reasons to trade him for pitching?
Keith Law: My guess is it’s 90% money, 10% baseball.

Kevin: Martin Perez for 6.5 million seems awfully high for a team trying to shed payroll. Does this move seem to indicate that the Red Sox feel confident in trading either Eovoldi or Price?
Keith Law: Or they see something they like that they believe they can fix.

Dan: How did the Ricketts get so, so poor? Poor Ricketts…
Keith Law: They gave it all to the GOP.

James: What’s your take on WIl WIlson, and the Giants Angels trade in general?
Keith Law: See my post on ESPN.com.

Snowy: Sitting in the cue for TOOL tickets, I remember reading that you weren’t a fan which kind of surprised me given some of your other musical tastes. Any particular reason or just not your thing?
Keith Law: I mean, I don’t like their music … not sure how else to describe it. It’s boring.

Orwell: How can so many people avoid the truth? What kind of grip does Putin have on our country?
Keith Law: I never thought I’d see this kind of cultlike devotion to a party or a politician, particularly ones that, in this case, have dedicated themselves to unrolling decades of progress in freedom, equality, or environmental protections. People who live in areas adversely affected by rollbacks in environmental laws continue to profess their intentions to vote red. It’s the most effective mass gaslighting campaign I can think of.

Scotty D from Downingtown: What is more probable – an existing team relocating to Montreal or an expansion team being allocated there?
Keith Law: Neither, in my opinion. MLB isn’t keen to revisit a market where they failed once.

Ghost of Josey Wales: Rangers fans and media are hotly debating whether the Rangers’ reported 6 year, $200M offer to Anthony Rendon, with a 7th year vesting option, was a legitimate effort to try to land Rendon, or just the team going through the motions by making an offer they knew would be rejected so the team could say they tried. What say you?
Keith Law: Obviously legitimate.

Jason: What are your thoughts on the Josh Lindblom signing? Can he have success in MLB?
Keith Law: Yes, as a reliever. Fastball/cutter guy, pitches up a lot, don’t see him turning a lineup over with that pitch combo.

Colin: I’m still skeptical about analytics, i feel a bunch of Ivy League guys figured out a way to scramble statistics in a way to push out longtime baseball guys, and that’s not cool. Can you tell me why i should take WAR seriously?
Keith Law: As an Ivy League guy myself, I think you should probably stop talking out of your ass about “Ivy League guys.” It’s embarrassing.

Dr. Bob: It seems to me that the length of years on a contract is almost meaningless as is AAV. Since contracts are fully guaranteed, then what counts is how many points of WAR a team projects a player to give them over the life of the contract. If the total dollars divided by their decision as to how much dollars per WAR represents value is close, then you have a good contract.
Keith Law: The AAV matters for the salary cap – er, luxury tax. The length of contract matters for individual team budgets, because it might affect the owners’ willingness to pay for additional players at some point in the future.

Bob Pollard: Putting aside how great he is, does nine years for Cole give you any pause at all?
Keith Law: Yes, I outlined why in my reaction post. You can’t project any pitcher out that far.

Tyler: Given the young up-and-coming pieces in the A’s rotation and the fact that they overperformed the last two years, do you think there is any chance they push the Astros this year?
Keith Law: More likely they regress. Division will be tougher as well.

Jason: What do you think now that the 3 batter rule is in effect? Ruins some strategy or will be largely inconsequential?
Keith Law: Eliminates one-batter strategies, and I’m fine with that. I hate mid-inning pitching changes, just speaking as a fan.

Matt: I know this is a few years late, but you recently mentioned how Malcolm Gladwell’s Joe Paterno ideas are disgusting (and I agree). It did remind me, though, that I haven’t read Joe Posnanski in years because of his book on the subject. Is that too harsh? As a journalist, was Posnanski in an impossible situation?
Keith Law: I am friends with Joe and probably not in a good position to answer, but I will say that because he was already mid-project when that story exploded, he had no clear way out of or around it. You can’t just up and deliver a different book than the one you signed a contract to deliver.

silvpak: with treinen and (potentially) betances, am i crazy in thinking the dodgers don’t actually need to do anything? madbum on a decent deal would be a good fit (and the compedy value alone with sfg is worth it), but the offense is pretty set (even a bit overstuffed on the roster side) and i’d be perfectly happy letting gonsolin/urias/stripling/may/santana duke it out for slots 4/5/6 in the rotation (after buehler/kershaw/maeda). maybe hill back on a pillow/rehab contract, but other than that i think they’re better suited waiting it out.
Keith Law: I agree. Starting depth would always help, because so many of their guys have injury histories, and if they can go get a superstar like Lindor they should just do it. But they’re the favorites in the division right now.

Max: JA Happ was highly touted in the trade for Halladay. Has he lived up to the hype surrounding him from that time?
Keith Law: Happ was never traded for Halladay.

Federico: What are your feelings on the Nats effectively choosing Stras over Rendon? Is there a route back to high level contention for them if they can’t manage to get a Donaldson/Bryant level replacement?
Keith Law: I think they knew Strasburg wanted to re-sign and chose that route rather than the uncertainy of Rendon. Rendon’s the better player, obviously.

Ben: Do you think Brandon Marsh would be a realistic get for the Tigers, if they were to send Boyd to LAA? Do you see Marsh as more a solid regular or is there some more upside?
Keith Law: Solid regular with upside is about right.
Keith Law: I’d like that trade for both sides, by the way.

Matt: Why are so many old white dudes angry at a 16 year old child that wants to *checks notes* make the world a better place?
Keith Law: Because she’s interfering with their profits, and perhaps their errant belief that we will always be bailed out of our own mistakes.

Tim: Do you think Milwaukee is actually looking to trade Hader or is this just let’s put his name out there and if someone blows us away we will trade him.
Keith Law: The difference is semantic, no? If they put him out there, they’re at least willing to trade him.

Jason: Would you go to four years on Josh Donaldson?
Keith Law: I would not.

Richard: Lots of worry in Toronto about scouting director Steve Sanders leaving -although the team is saying having your mentor Lacava around will help in the transition. Is losing one guy that crucial ? Will they replace internally?
Keith Law: They have been model-heavy in their draft, and that tends to last beyond a single director. I agree with them that having Lacava around will help as well.

Trevor: Braves have a lot of FA/trade options being rumored around for 3B. Has everyone given up on Riley after a strikeout prone 2nd half at age 22 all while trying to play a new position at the highest level?
Keith Law: Well, trying to play a far easier position, and he was strikeout prone for a reason. There’s enough cause for concern about his production in 2020 to justify the team looking elsewhere.

Guest: I know you are high on Luis Urias, but is it possible that he fell in love with the long ball (esp AAA) that killed his OBP bona fides?
Keith Law: That is almost certainly what happened.

Ben: If things all break right, what is a good comp for Issac Parades? I’ve seen Jhony Peralta mentioned a few times in the past, but maybe that needs to be updated because the Tigers seem to have given up on having him as rotund SS
Keith Law: Paredes has zero chance to play short. He wasn’t good when I saw him at third in the summer. He can definitely hit, and has real doubles power, but I see zero projection there and I think this is kind of what he is – high average, doubles, not many Ks, mediocre D at third.

Ray: The latest rumor reported by the NYT is that Trump might skip the debates in 2020, citing an “unfair process”. Two things: One, I actually predicted this like a year ago, so kudos to me if it happens I guess. Two, god damnit his base would love that wouldn’t they? Probably a shrewd move by him.
Keith Law: Yes, and he can probably only lose support by going up against someone like Warren – and I would guess any Democratic candidate will be better prepared to spar with him this time around.

Andrew V: What round in the draft does the first player you’ve never heard of usually get drafted?
Keith Law: It’s been as high as the first round (Hayden Simpson – I had one note on him from the spring, and didn’t remember it at all when he was taken) but it’s usually the third or fourth.

Chuck: Denver: Drink at Falling Rock Tap House, one of the great craft-beer bars in the U.S. Visit Tattered Cover bookstore.
Keith Law: Heard great things about the Tattered Cover. Also I hear Sushi Den is the place to go for sushi.

Eric: I wanted to hire Jen Mac Ramos at a previous job. What a talent and what a great person. I hope the recovery goes well; I cannot imagine the hell it must be.
Keith Law: Indeed, it will be a very long road but I think I speak for all of us in the online baseball community when I say we are behind them 100%.

TJ: If the reports are true that Wheeler didn’t actually take the highest offer, how often does something like that happen with a high profile free agent? Does the MLBPA have an issue with things like that?
Keith Law: Highest reported offer isn’t always the most money. Local taxes come into play, for one thing.

Ray: Don’t you love the assholes online that mock people for things such as announcing their pronouns, and then demand that they educate them on why it matters? Like, if you really wanted to learn, go out and read about it, Sparky. You’ve already told on yourself by telling me it’s MY job to teach you.
Keith Law: I had someone pull that shit on me two weeks ago … saying I was “pandering” by listing my pronouns. Buddy, if eight characters in my bio (which you should never see unless you go to my profile page – it’s not on my tweets) bother you that much, YOU have a problem.

Casey: Do you have any venison recipes?
Keith Law: I do not eat any red meat other than pork.

Tim: Does Bryant win his grievance which was blatantly obvious to anyone at the time. How could a trade be completed without knowing how much control the acquiring team has?
Keith Law: I don’t think he wins because I don’t see what evidence he could use to support the contention that the Cubs held him down solely to manipulate his service time. You and I know it’s true, but how do you prove that?

Matthew F: I play fantasy baseball with with many great owners from all over the world and its great to see MLB heading back to London again in 2020. Have you heard if MLB wants to expose baseball in other markets worldwide?
Keith Law: I have, but I don’t think anything is locked in yet.

Casey: Is Elehuris a candidate for your top 100 again? Just looking at the stats it seems like he took a step back this year?
Keith Law: Look at the stats and where they came. They jumped him two levels (why?) and he wasn’t ready, plus he missed more than half the year with injury. It’s a lost season but I wouldn’t say he regressed.

Monica Lewinsky: Can we impeach Mitch McConnell???
Keith Law: Matt Bevin just pardoned a man convicted of beheading his wife. Maybe we should ask the voters of Kentucky what they’ve been thinking.

Mark: Just made my first Blueberry pie. I was thinking afterwards it might have come out better if I had cooked the fruit before filling the pie. What say you ?
Keith Law: No, you may have needed more starch to thicken it.

Eric: Just how disgusted are you at the Jonah Keri situation. I hope his family is safe, and that they don;’t have to deal with those monstrous allegations anymore.
Keith Law: It’s beyond words. I wasn’t friends with Jonah, but even knowing I worked alongside him at times makes my skin crawl. Also, why does the court keep releasing him on these trivial bonds, even after he contacted the victim in violation of a court order? How many charges does it take to at least require him to pay more in bail?

Ben: Assuming that ownership signs off on the extra money (a big if), Oakland should absolutely jump on Jed Lowrie just for getting Dom Smith, am I right? Dom Smith seems undervalued to me.
Keith Law: Not sure he’s a good fit for Oakland with Olson there, but I agree that some team should pounce on that. Smith could be someone’s regular at 1b. Maybe Baltimore?

Anon: Hey Keith. I think I’ve needed treatment for a while; I don’t sleep or eat well, I’m extremely irritable and moody, and I have constant plaguing thoughts about my state of mind and future. But the issue is I don’t know what kind of professional I should seek. Psychologist? Therapist? …psychotherapist? Any insight would help. Thank you.
Keith Law: You could start with your primary care doctor – that’s how I started after I had that panic attack while driving. She helped me figure out what treatment I needed.

Ridley: With Brexit looking inevitable and Scoex…Scexi…Scotland leaving the UK looking likely, I’m seriously considering it as a landing place. Have you ever been to Scotland? Any thoughts on it as a place to live?
Keith Law: I worry about my inability to communicate with the locals.

Kevin : Where do you expect Ronny Mauricio to begin his 2020? And do you think he sticks at short?
Keith Law: Definitely sticks at short. Probably starts in high-A.

Steve : I know its not the popular decision but doesnt it make sense to consolidate the amount of minor league teams??
Keith Law: Yes. Note that the minors themselves have no problems moving teams around – 80+ relocations since 1990 – but when MLB suggests it, it’s like they’re pissing on the flag. Many of those markets can’t support baseball, or don’t have the facilities needed. Meanwhile, you have amazing spots like Aberdeen only used about half of the season when they could and should be in a higher classification. We could debate one or two specific locations, but the majority of those on the public list need to go.
Keith Law: Also, you can’t say in one breath that you want minor leaguers to be paid more, and then object to a plan that would result in better working conditions for players.

Mick: I read Vandy Austin Martin will get a shot at short. Can he hold that position all the way to the majors?
Keith Law: I’d like to see it. He was ++ at third when I last saw him.

Van Skike: I never saw your thoughts on the new Beck album… I was disappointed
Keith Law: I was too.

Mark: How could the Veterans committee have blown it so badly with Lou Whitaker?
Keith Law: Call me when the Hall manages to find a writer or executive of color for one of their committees.

Ray: Did you see this female reporter who got her butt smacked by a man while she was on air? The insane thing to me is once the guy was identified, there was a very vocal minority online yelling “Leave him alone – he has kids!” I mean, what in the actual F?
Keith Law: Yeah, and he claimed he didn’t know where he was hitting her. He should be charged with assault. Fuck every man who thinks that is okay.

Rahn: If you’re Ben Cherington, who gets moved out in your plan to improve the Pirates?
Keith Law: I’d shop Marte immediately.
Keith Law: Take offers on relievers and even on Archer, see if someone else is willing to pay to try to rebuild him.

Jason: Is Mauricio dubon a major league starter
Keith Law: I think so.

Yinka Double Dare: In Wheeler’s specific case, even considering the local taxes he took less money – Illinois income tax is currently under 5%, income tax for Philly is about 7% incl. the state and local income taxes
Keith Law: I wasn’t saying that was the issue with Wheeler – I cited taxes as one possible explanation. Maybe Chicago’s offer was more backloaded. Maybe it included option years and they were factoring in buyouts. Rejected offers are never fully made public.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week, and I believe that’ll be all for Klawchats in 2019. Thank you all for reading, and for all of your questions. I’ll be posting frequently to the dish in the next week, and reacting to any major signings or trades in the same time period, so keep an eye out for those. Happy holidays!