Klawchat 9/10/20.

I have three new posts up for subscribers to The Athletic: a breakdown of the planned changes to the 2021 draft, a Q&A with Jen McCaffrey on the Red Sox’ farm system, and a scouting notebook (from Tuesday) on several top 100 prospects who debuted recently. I also have a new game review at Paste, looking at the Spiel-nominated Nova Luna, Uwe Rosenberg’s reboot of an earlier game called Habitats.

Keith Law: In the shuffling madness … Klawchat.

Ben (MN): How useful is this year’s data for evaluators like yourself? For example, Austin Meadows had an early case of covid and has been awful. Is that evidence that he was never as good as his numbers from last year, or can we just not tell at this point due to the small sample and the unknown impact of covid, lack of reps, etc.? For someone like Javy Baez, has his approach finally caught up with him and exposed him as a solid but not great player, or is it just a small sample and he may be a superstar again next year? Do you have any idea how to gauge this season for situations like this, where the data doesn’t confirm what we thought about the player before the year?
Keith Law: This entire season is a small, skewed sample. Not only is 60 games less than half a regular season, but schedules are far less balanced than they usually are, and we’re clearly working with less major-league caliber pitching than usual. If a player continues what he showed us in 2019, then great, it’s probably further evidence in that direction. If a player is having an outlier season in 2020, though, I’m not going to draw any conclusions either way.

Sedona: Gut feeling…Luciano take the Vlad/Soto early path to MLB?  If not, who?
Keith Law: No. Don’t think he has their idea of the strike zone.

2020 Voter: I read nearly all of your chats and in each one this year there’s a comment from someone that essentially says “how could anyone vote for Trump?” and I’d like to share my perspective.  Biden has proposed revisions to 401Ks that replaces the current taxable income reduction with flat credits.  This would greatly increase my taxes per year — despiate pledges to not raise taxes on households making <400K — and leaves our family with little extra.  Trump is a horrible embarassment, but that is a huge financial hit.  Democrats will likely control Congress, so the chances of this passing are high.  You’ll probably call this selfish, but I’m not especially political and I have young kids.
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s pretty selfish – and also extremely narrow. If the economy is worse off as a whole, what does that mean for your income, or the long-term value of your 401K? Trade wars and tariffs are terrible for the economy. So is a pandemic without a sufficient government response. Also, I’d wager a good amount of money that you’re a straight, white man, whose status isn’t particularly threatened by a Trump administration that is rolling back anti-discrimination protections for anybody who isn’t that.

Todd Boss: Given the 29-9 beatdown last night, would you support a little-league style “slaughter rule” in baseball games at some point?  We’re already experimenting with “weirder” rules (extra innings runner, 7-inning double headers, no-pitch IBB) that have existed in non-MLB leagues for a time … why not have a rolling slaughter rule; game’s over if losing by 10 or more runs 7th inning or later?
Keith Law: This year I would have.

Jason: Should Bob Woodward have released those taped conversations much earlier, is criticism of him fair?
Keith Law: Yes.

Adam: I admit to being very confused that The Burnt Orange Heresy wasn’t a documentary on the current administration.
Keith Law: It’s a great title for a good novel (I read it, it’s solid) and a bad film.

Jason: Is corbin burnes a GUY?
Keith Law: I think so. I was a year early on his breakout, as usual.

Matt: Do you believe in Austin Nola being a 120 wRC+ type bat in next couple of years or no?
Keith Law: I’d bet the under on that.

Ryan: Hey Keith love your work. What do you think an extension for Tatis looks like. Would 8 250 get it close. He could get another bite of the apple at age 29.
Keith Law: With four years of team control now, one of them essentially at the minimum salary, you’re still giving him $40 million or more for his free agent years. He should definitely take that offer.

Jon: Don’t look now but Michael Conforto is turning into a superstar.  (In my best John Malkovich voice – “Pay that man his money”)
Keith Law: Again, I don’t want to read much into the short season, but the OBP has always been there, and this is power he’s shown before when healthy. Funny how the Cubs fans who were mad I ranked him over Schwarber have gone silent.

Chuck: Any idea why Davidson or Muller don’t get at least a spot start for Atlanta?
Keith Law: I don’t know how prepared they are for that … we don’t know how much they’ve pitched, or if they’ve dealt with any minor injuries, anything like that. On the face of it I’d assume Davidson was in line, but I have no inside info here.

Mac: Have you heard how the fall league will be structured?
Keith Law: Nothing. Many ideas, no specifics.

Ken: Comparing the two who had more upside as a starter at age 22 for the yanks severing or Garcia?  Why?
Keith Law: Severino had the better arm, but I always had concerns about his delivery that unfortunately came to pass. Garcia has his own concerns but I think he’s a bit more likely to hold up as a starter.

Michael: Yesterday more than 1,200 Americans died. In Spain, Germany, Canada, Japan, Italy and the UK they lost a combined 75 even though they have 100 million more people than us.  #AmericanExceptionialism
Keith Law: Yeah, but Biden might raise my taxes a tiny bit.

Deke: Anything dumber (non-actually-important department) this year than Hosmer’s bunt and the aftermath?
Keith Law: Bunting with two strikes, even against the shift, is such a bad idea … if you are that unlikely to get a hit in that situation, you shouldn’t be in the lineup.

Jake: Keith—I’m a first time voter (just turned 18). I’m extremely progressive. As such, I obviously am not voting for trump. But I don’t know if i can betray my heart and vote joe. He has a brutal history, and won’t bring about meaningful change. How do i vote?
Keith Law: You vote for Biden. You have two choices here that matter. One might not bring about meaningful change from our history, but he will bring about meaningful change from the last four years. The other will get to keep appointing conservative judges, gutting environmental laws, killing LGBTQ+ protections, muzzling scientists, and mishandling crises. This isn’t hard. And it’s not only about you.

BirdlandBro: Hey Keith, your thoughts on the Orioles?  Do you see real positive strides being made and potentially an accelerated rebuild?  Or just small sample size?
Keith Law: Just a small sample size.

Bryan (Montclair): What do you think the impact will be on pitchers in 2021 based on this truncated season? Anecdotally, I would think that starters will have a longer time getting stretched out/pitching through a long 2021 season, at the very least. Not to mention an uptick in injuries.
Keith Law: I share your concern – and I think it’s the main reason we will see some sort of fall league, so minor leaguers who didn’t see the majors aren’t left with virtually no innings this year.

Cory: What’s the deal with Mize’s lack of command; wasn’t that supposed to be his biggest strength? Cause for concern?
Keith Law: Again, tiny samples.

Jordan: Do you see the Padres talent ever stacking up enough to overtake the dodgers for a division title? Or does LAs combination of cash and organizational acumen make SD a groomsmen for the next decade?
Keith Law: Some of it is just luck – you stay healthier one year, or you have a guy have an outlier year like Cronenworth – but I will say no large-market team would scare me more as a competitor than the Dodgers. They’re extremely strong at the major-league and minor-league levels, they keep finding high-end talent in the draft even when they draft low, and they’re exceptionally well-run.

BJ: Are you coming around on Mountcastle? All the guy does is hit. Even if the BB% boost is just a small sample, who cares? Why walk when you can rake?
Keith Law: Because when you don’t walk, pitchers tailor their approach and you don’t rake so much.

Larry: Whats your level of concern for Soroka’s future while coming back from the Achilles tear?
Keith Law: None.

Greg: Fried, Soroka, Anderson seem like logical pieces in the future Atlanta rotations. Any other internal guys who you think could figure it out and join them?
Keith Law: I would bet that one of that group of Wright, Wilson, Toussaint, Davidson would figure it out … but I am not really sure which one I’d bet on. Touki has the best arsenal, and all the athleticism in the world, and when he’s on – repeating his delivery especially – he’s the best of the quartet.
Keith Law: If he doesn’t figure it out in Atlanta, he’ll spend the next ten years going from team to team because every pitching coach will want to work with him. He could be the new Edwin Jackson.

Matt: 200K dead Americans but 2020 Voter is concerned about his 401. That’s nice.
Keith Law: I wonder if questions like that are just bait.

Adam: Is it odd that the Padres, for all their drafting and IFA prowess, have a roster comprised of only maybe 2 “homegrown” players, depending on your definition of the term?
Keith Law: They’ve used a lot of homegrown players to acquire guys on the roster. Also, you’re probably not counting Tatis Jr. as homegrown, since he originally signed with another club, but he never played an official game with any other org but the Padres.

James: Do you agree with Kershaw that the extra-inning rule is “not real baseball”?
Keith Law: It’s not my kind of baseball.

Steven: If Bart can hit .250+, is he an all star?
Keith Law: What’s his OBP in that scenario?

Matthew: All the beat writers seem to think Cleveland will decline Hand and Santana’s options and trade Lindor in a massive salary clearance this offseason. With Carrasco set to achieve 10-and-5 next May or so, I’d imagine they’ll also be eager to move his salary while they still can, without his approval. What do you think his trade value is like? Definitely a unique case.
Keith Law: I would bet it’s high. People seem to love Carrasco the person, and obviously he’s a top-end pitcher. I think they’d do very well if they trade him – multiple real prospects in return.

Guest: Would you bring up brailen marquez for the last bit of this year if you were jed/theo?
Keith Law: Assuming he’s ready & healthy, he’d be a hell of a weapon in relief.

Jon: It looks like Andres Gimenez has overtaken Rosario at SS, at least for the rest of the season.  If you’re the Mets, what do you do with Rosario next year?  Try him in CF, trade him or see if he can still become what a lot of people thought he could be?
Keith Law: My guess is they’ll end up trading him. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him succeed somewhere else.

zeke: Do you think the anti-Military comments and COVID disclosures re “Clown Hitler” move the needle at all?
Keith Law: You would think so … how any veteran or military family could hand-wave this away is beyond me.

Brian: Do you think some players perform better because of not having fans? Thinking specifically of Darvish.
Keith Law: No.

Appa Yip Yip: Are you buying Teoscar Hernandez? His good run started last year.
Keith Law: Another 2019 breakout candidate. More buying than selling, I would say, but again, 2020 is a tiny sample and I would not extrapolate any player having a strong but outlier six weeks into him doing it for a whole year.

Brian: Ian Happ is another breakout you jumped the gun on. Great power and OBP mix. Think he can be a regular All-Star?
Keith Law: I do – he was one of my bigger breakout disappointments because I was always pretty confident he’d be a strong OBP/doubles guy at the worst while playing a few positions.

Johnny Tuttle: Why did Libertarianism take such virulent root in the US?
Keith Law: Isn’t it innate? One of the original 13 states has “Live Free or Die” as its motto.

Greg P: Isn’t it scary to think 45% of Americans will vote for Trump?
Keith Law: 45% of voters will. Not the same thing. The problem is all the people who don’t vote, many of whom will see their quality of life affected quite directly by the outcome.

Adam Trask: You still think Hinch gets hired again but not Luhnow? Hinch knew about it and couldn’t control his team. Luhnow may not have known and got screwed. And he seems to have interest from the A-Rod group at least.
Keith Law: Luhnow knew. Let’s not revise history here.

Guest: Awesome to hear you’re running. Interesting to know you can do something you never thought possible. In that sense, do you have any hope that we’ll see substantial progress in climate change in our lifetime?
Keith Law: I think we will in my daughter’s lifetime, but by then it may be far too late.

Tracy: If this current administration is defeated this fall, should the Biden admin go after any of the obvious lawbreakers who’ve run amok the last four years? I’d hate to see them literally get away with murder because the new administration would deem it “ not worth it.” Sends a bad message that there are indeed two separate sets of laws that are enforced.

Keith Law: Yes. Lock them up.

Mike Trout: Another Mets SSS but gosh Dom Smith. I know you were always high on him – how good can he be?
Keith Law: He started this last year in limited time, so I’m more inclined to believe it – but I’ve also always been a believer. Funny how much grief he got after 1 HR in his first season in full-season ball. Since the start of 2019, he’s played 125 games and hit 18 homers with a .301/.371/.572 line, and he’s hitting lefties too. That’ll play.

OZ: For the guy who is going to vote Trump because of Biden’s 401K plan:  the 401K tax deduction is highly regressive, it gives a larger tax break to those with higher incomes (higher tax brackets) while providing a limited benefit to low and middle class savers.  Moving to a flat credit will provide a larger break and more incentive for middle class families.  If your taxes are raised by this plan its because you have a large income and can afford it.  However its unlikely to make much of a difference since Roth IRAs are taxed differently than 401Ks so savers can easily switch to contributing to a Roth IRA instead.
Keith Law: Well, there you go. I have voted for years in direct opposition to my own interests when it comes to tax rates, because 1) there is no reason on earth I need a tax break and 2) I am at least vaguely aware that there are other people on this planet besides me.

John: Do you think Derek fisher will have a teoscar style breakout? They share some (possibly superficial) similarities. Also, do you believe in teoscar’s breakout?
Keith Law: Fisher’s really interesting because his tools – plus power, 70 run – have long outstripped his production, and there hasn’t been a great reason why. It’s been true in the field and at the plate since he was at UVA. His 34 PA this year don’t tell us anything at all, but he’d at least be someone to watch if you are looking on the Jays roster for a player with the physical tools to be the sort of found money that Teoscar has been.

Kevin: Is trent grisham a center fielder now? A lot of people felt he couldn’t succeed there before this season.
Keith Law: I’d be shocked if he was able to play above-average defense in CF for a whole year.

Nolan: have any of these “I’m a leftist how could I possibly vote for Biden?” people ever heard of the Supreme Court? Noticed how many times RBG has been hospitalized recently?
Keith Law: The Supreme Court is where they play tennis at their local country clubs.

Ron: What would you say to disaffected leftists who see both Biden and Trump as horrendous candidates whose parties both actively stifle progressive policies? How long do we have to keep voting for the lesser of two-evils while deluding ourselves that next election will be different?
Keith Law: See all the answers above, and maybe consider the privilege in your self-definition as a “disaffected leftist” instead of someone whose livelihood or even existence is threatened by four more years of this shit.

Sedona: Is Domingo German a lock for the rotation next year?  Tanaka, Paxton, Happ should be FA’s.  Do you think Schmidt, Devei and Severino say otherwise?
Keith Law: I don’t think German or Severino are rotation locks for 2021.

Steven: I would say Bart’s OBP would have to be .340
Keith Law: If he does that, with his power and defense, he’s a star. But I’m not sure he gets there unless he continues to be a HBP magnet.

Dave: Whether or not it’s actually indicative, it’s clearly a small (and unreliable) sample size. That being said, does Bobby Dalbec have the  potential to be a big league regular?
Keith Law: I think he has a fringe regular ceiling but will likely be a good bench player.

Chamaco: The Athletic is running a special – $1 a month for 6 months.  Will that allow me to read everything you have written since starting there?
Keith Law: Yes. I don’t think it’s limited in any way.

Jason: Do you think josh lindblom could be good in relief? he clearly isnt cut for starting in MLB
Keith Law: Yes.

Luis Robert: Luis Robert is walking almost twice as often as he did in AAA. Is this SSS noise, or a positive step?
Keith Law: Everything. In. 2020. Is. A. Small. Sample.
Keith Law: If this were a regular season we wouldn’t even be at Memorial Day.

Chamaco: Any good reason why scouts can’t attend MLB games or alt. sites? Seems like there is enough room to socially distance even with players in the stands.
Keith Law: Certain owners didn’t want to spend the money to send scouts out to games, so they pushed for MLB to just ban them all.

Mike: Klaw, if Steve Cohen hired you to run the Mets, what are the top things you would tell him that needs to be done? Would you even have interest in a front office position?
Keith Law: I would actually leave a lot of people in place. They’ve drafted really well, and you’re seeing more of that this year and last year with Smith’s emergence, Conforto, Alonso, and perhaps Peterson (he should be better than this, the BB% is surprising). Their development on the pitching side has improved. Their two biggest problems have been injuries and major-league transactions.

Nelson: It’s a small sample obviously, but Braves fans have been cautiously optimistic about Austin Riley’s approach at the plate improving. Have you seen much of him this year? Quality of ABs seems vastly improved to my eyes, especially on the last month.
Keith Law: Tiny sample. And they’ve faced a lot of bad pitching in that span.

Tim KC: Hey Keith…I am afraid that all the rule changes for this experimental year is going convince Manfred to negotiate to keep changes and push for further (bad) changes next CBA negotiations (and greater possibility of strike/lock out).  (Only pro-universal DH.). Can you talk me off the ledge or is it legit concerns?
Keith Law: The union has to agree to all of it. Universal DH is a lock. Don’t see the union agreeing to many other things like 7-inning games, which would reduce the need for so many relievers.

Appa Yip Yip: Libertarianism in America also has to be put into the context of having one political party that does everything it can to make the state inept. Freedom from government interference makes a lot more sense when your government is constantly being kneecapped by the people responsible for running it.
Keith Law: Not unreasonable. Although I think there’s such a strong cultural “don’t tell me what to do” mentality here that overruns any sense of “I should care about others” that you might expect from a nation that so often likes to refer to itself as a Christian one.

Maddy: Looking at 2021 Prospect Rankings, how are you going to go about not getting a traditional season-long look at prospects? How many changes are we realistically going to see?
Keith Law: We’ll have a lot of graduations, the addition of this year’s draft, and possibly some stuff from fall baseball. That’ll make for fewer changes than in a normal year, and I’m assuming my team by team writeups will be shorter as a result of guys not playing, but there will at least be sufficient changes to make the top 100 pretty fresh.

Brent: Dylan Cease has been productive getting guys out without a high K-rate. Do you see that continuing or will he have to miss more bats to continue the success?
Keith Law: I think he needs a higher K rate, but I also think his K rate will improve.
Keith Law: Secondary stuff has shown at least flashes of being good enough to miss more bats.

Greg: Obviously small sample, but is Plesac a mid rotation guy long term?
Keith Law: Yeah, I’m buying that.

Mike Trout: I read “you’re running” as in running for office. Law 2024!
Keith Law: I don’t need to run – we’ve got progressive candidates running all over the place here in Delaware. I voted in our primary for Kyle Evans Gay, a progressive running to flip our State Senate seat (it’s been red for over 20 years); and Jess Scarane, the progressive candidate running against incumbent Senator Chris Coons. I also donated to help other progressive candidates for our state legislature, including Sarah McBride, Debbie Harrington, and Stephanie Barry.

Jason: Would the US Postal Service be in better shape if it wasn’t forced to prefund its retirees’ health benefits 75 years into the future or do they need to radically change the organization?
Keith Law: Pretty sure it’s the former.

Johnny Tuttle: I was exhilarated when players walked off the fields/courts/rinks. We need more of this leadership.

PS: Why do white people revere Jackie and MLK decades afterwards but hate LeBron now? Hang on, I think I’ve figured it out on my own.
Keith Law: Yep. Much easier to laud these guys well after the fact.

Kevin: Will the Mariners call up Taylor Trammell for some time this year? Would you? A Trammell/Kelenic/J-Rod outfield looks mightyyyyy nice in theory.
Keith Law: I would call Trammell and Kelenic up now, since it’s not like they’d be taking time away from anyone important for their futures.

Joe: What are your thoughts about contracting MILB teams? As a fan and taxpayer that built a new stadium for a team being eliminated, I’m irritated that rich MLB can’t afford to support these teams.
Keith Law: I have mixed feelings on this. Some markets just didn’t support their teams, and were more headaches for their parent clubs (due to travel, facilities, etc.) than anything else. The Appalachian League will barely be missed – nobody went to most of those games. And MLB should have more say in where MiLB franchises are located, for the convenience of moving players around, and to manage the reach of the game into better or larger markets. That said, eliminating all of short-season baseball is a terrible player development move, a penny wise and pound foolish decision that reduces jobs in baseball for players and staff alike.

Tracy: All this talk of uniting this country might backfire on the next administration. There will still be a large faction who will oppose any attempts that may help “them” (non-white people). Same reasons Biden should forget about “bi-partisanship.” It’s not going to happen. Do not waste time like Obama did. You get screwed in the end.
Keith Law: I read Ben Rhodes’ book The World As It Is, about his time in the Obama White House, and while I don’t think this was his intended message, it was the one I took away. You can’t work with people who don’t intend to work with you. Negotiating with someone who consistently acts in bad faith is far different from negotiating with someone who acts in good faith. You need a different strategy and different tactics.

Chaz: Have seen a few ups and many downs from Evan White this season. Obviously didn’t have the most experience heading into the season, but will he figure it out? Seems like a velocity problem ie: he can’t hit the hard stuff.
Keith Law: That was my take too. If you can’t hit velocity, this is not the sport for you.

The Ghost in Texas: What kind of prospect was kiner-falefa. SSS but the guy looks like he belongs has he changed anything to allow himself to be more productive than expected? And is he a starter on a winning club? (Not currently of course bc Tex is awful)
Keith Law: He didn’t start catching until he was 21, in his fourth season in pro ball, and without that he wasn’t really a prospect at all. Less than two years later, he was in the majors, so his window to appear on anyone’s lists was very short. This year is the first time (so far) he’s slugged .400+ at any stop at all, and it’s just because his BABIP has jumped 57 points. So, he wasn’t a prospect until he could catch, and his 2020 line looks like a pretty serious outlier at the plate. However, a C-IF like him has value if he can just get on base like IKF has, so I think he’s a useful player on a winning club, but not a starter.

kc: although it’s a weird season, pretty excited for the future of baseball with some of these young players
Keith Law: I am too.

Matthew: I’ve been reading these chats for too long because I remember when all the Cubs fans would come and disparage you for saying Junior Lake wasn’t a star when he was good for like 3 weeks one time.
Keith Law: Never forget. Junior Lake and Brett Jackson belong on some sort of All-Star Klaw Hates My Team’s Prospects roster.

Leftist: Your responses to leftists are emblematic of the Democratic Party’s inevitable downfall. Instead of attempting to reach out and expand the net of potential voters, you mock, ridicule, and use inconsistent logic (such as implying that Biden, who was instrumental in appointing Scalia and Thomas, has a clean record with SCOTUS). Instead of dismissing an entire movement as “privileged”, maybe consider that some of us are actually marginalized BIPOC and just don’t trust someone with as horrible a record as Biden.
Keith Law: I never implied Biden has a clean record with SCOTUS; that’s your inference, and a bad-faith one at that. I implied that I’d prefer Biden’s choice for SCOTUS, especially if it comes with a Democrat-controlled Senate, to Trump’s choice. We have clear data on the type of justice Trump would nominate, but those examples you give for Biden came 20+ years ago and were not his nominees. If you think that, as President, Biden is going to nominate the next Antonin Scalia, I’m not sure we can have a rational discussion on the subject.

JJ: Watched the Red Sox game with my dad the other night, and after a Bobby Dalbec strkeout, I casually mentioned to Dad that the Sox picked Dalbec one pick before Shane Bieber was chosen.  My dad went nuts, saying that Dave Dombrowski was an idiot who ruined the Red Sox.  My question:  at that point in the draft (4th round) do GMs have any idea of who they’re picking, or is it a 100% scouting director decision?
Keith Law: Scouting director decision – but also, Bieber wasn’t throwing anywhere near this hard when in college.

2022: Do you foresee a work stoppage in 2022? Starting to think the 2021 season might be the only full year we get until 2023 (and even 2021 could be impacted by COVID).
Keith Law: It’s a real concern, although I wonder if players would approach the talks differently after losing more than half of this season, and look for more guaranteed money even if it cuts off long-term upside. (Not saying that should be their strategy, just that it might be.)

Lyle: SSS and all but have you seen enough from Kyle Lewis to believe that he’s an everyday OF going forward?
Keith Law: SSS – and Lewis hasn’t had a huge run of health since college, either. I’m not rooting against him, but if you’re DiPoto, you have to consider that when planning the future of your roster. (Maybe that means Lewis ends up taking DH time to keep him playing, eventually.)

The Ghost in Texas: In normal times Spring Training would be going strong 6 months from now. What do u think the chances are ST 2021 will look anything similar to previous seasons. As someone that travels to Phoenix each year for a great weekend I beg u to not make me cry.
Keith Law: I would guess we get spring training but if we don’t have a vaccine it might be without fans, or with very few fans.

Nate: Hearing of any prospects at satellite sites that have made big jumps this year?
Keith Law: Yes, but I don’t take any of it seriously until they show it in games. Any team can claim their prospects look great when nobody else can watch them.

Jason: Is devin williams a future closer?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jason: As an author, where do you want to see most of your readers get your book: Amazon vs. supporting a local bookstore, ebook vs print vs audiobook or you don’t have a preference?
Keith Law: My incentives are all over the place. The more you pay for the book, the more I get in royalties against my advance, although it’s a small amount on any one book. But I also want more people to read my books, since it was so much work to write them. And I also want to be sure independent bookstores continue to exist, as I enjoy them so much as a consumer, and I believe they contribute to diversity in what gets published. So … buy my books wherever you want, in whatever format you want, and I will be grateful.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks for reading and for all of your questions, as always. Stay safe, wear your masks, and make sure you’re registered to vote!

Comments

  1. Dwight Hamner

    Locomotive Breath. Very nice.

  2. To piggyback on what Oz said, if this tax plan went ahead there will almost certainly be provisions that any amount invested above the tax credit threshold would be treated as a de facto Roth. This could end up being to your benefit if taxes are higher when you retire.

  3. I have so little time for people who consider themselves so progressive and leftist that they can’t vote for Biden. There is no legitimate third option. You either vote for Trump or you vote for Biden and any vote for someone else just helps Trump get elected. Stop acting like you are owed a perfect candidate.

    In what world will not voting for Biden help achieve anything you believe in?

    • Yinka Double Dare

      Not to mention most any Trump-appointed justice will strike down virtually any leftist-supported legislation as unconstitutional (they’ll always make up some “textual” or “originalist” reasoning to get to their desired result even when it’s obvious poppycock) so even if in 4, 8, 12 years leftists got someone more to their liking elected as President, they wouldn’t actually get their policies enacted for a generation. I didn’t vote for Biden in the primary but good lord, there is zero decision to make here unless you have zero foresight at all. Oh waaaah, Bernie lost again, suck it up and deal with it the way the rest of us that didn’t vote for Biden, including most Bernie voters, are, before this becomes unfixable. 2016 may have already severely damaged chances of that by letting the Republicans refresh Scalia’s seat. Absolute zero chance of it being reparable if Trump gets another 4 years and gets to fill RBG, Breyer, or both.

    • A Salty Scientist

      Also, imagine that magically one of Bernie’s plans ends up on Biden’s desk. Biden ain’t going to veto that.

    • This characterization of leftists as petulant parlor room debaters is high-handed and lazy. I’m a self-employed tradesperson with a tidy little business. If you knew my work and my reputation with my clients, you’d say I’m doing exactly what I should be for a living. But I’m without a union or a guild to get any group coverage, so my health care premiums are $10K annually for a policy with a $5K deductible, and I spent a week in the hospital last year with colon cancer (missed 6 weeks of work total, which meant I billed nothing during that time). I’m not advocating Medicare for All as some airy kumbayah crap. I need it.

    • I don’t know whose characterization of leftists you mean; Maggie referred simply to those who are “so progressive and leftist” that they can’t vote for Biden. That’s a pretty small group. While I’d love to see you get M4A or something equivalent, I know that voting for Trump/not voting at all isn’t going to get you any closer to it.

    • A Salty Scientist

      @Mike, yes, I think that if push came to shove, Biden wouldn’t veto it. There’s also a lot of political downside to saying that out loud.

    • @Salty not sure what the political downside is to supporting a policy that the majority of the electorate supports

      https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/494602-poll-69-percent-of-voters-support-medicare-for-all

    • A Salty Scientist

      The downside is that registered voters overstates the support among likely voters, and that the overall support is not evenly distributed. M4A polls much worse in swing states.

    • Maybe the reason there is a discrepancy between registered voiters and likely voters is that none of the candidates support m4a, leading to an effectively unrepresented voting bloc. Maybe m4a polls worse in swing states because republicans/insurance companies have invested more money fighting it there. Maybe if we all just vigorously demanded the things we want instead of taking it as gospel that we can never have them, we would have a better world.

    • Mike – that discrepancy has existed forever. It’s not about M4A.

    • Yes, I am aware. M4A was the focus of the primary and the specific thing I brought up, so that is why I centered on that. You certainly could apply my argument to any other number of topics.

  4. The Republicans are never out of an election, and the Democrats will always find a way to blow the layup. Republicans are willing to hold their nose, and vote for the guy with the (R) next to his name, no matter how much they may dislike the individual. Party over country. Many Democrats, especially on the far left, are likely to hold up a checklist of “demands” to the Democratic candidate on the ballot. If enough of those demands aren’t met, they’ll throw a hissy fit, and stay home on election day.

    Say what you will about Republicans, but they play to win the game, while the Democrats play for the moral victory. Remember that in November when you ask yourself, “How could America reelect that guy?”

    • A Salty Scientist

      I see the GOP doing very well at courting single-issue voters, and the Democrats having to deal with liberal purity tests and magical thinking. You pretty much need a supermajority to get anything passed that isn’t budget neutral, so it’s not realistic to expect that if somehow Bernie ended up as President, progressives would get everything on their wish list. Obama fought tool and nail to get Blue Dogs on board with the compromise ACA, and now those Blue Dogs have been largely replaced by Tea Party Republicans.

    • A Salty Scientist

      *tooth (WTF brain)

    • Salty, in the same sentence you use republican “single-issue voters” as a value-neutral entity and then turn around and say “liberal purity tests” are something Democrats have to “deal with.” This (perhaps unintentionally) frames the issues of the left as unreasonable when they are anything but. People want healthcare, a livable planet, and freedom from our corporate overlords, and it is not unreasonable to ask our politicians to support the bare minimum of these requests if they want our vote.

    • A Salty Scientist

      I deeply apologize if I gave the impression that the right is reasonable! IMO, conservatives are more prone to “black and white” thinking, which the GOP has capitalized on by cynically identifying those singe rallying issues. I certainly don’t find that voting strategy to be reasonable.

      I think most on the left are reasonable and more nuanced in their political views than conservatives. That means they are inherently less likely to be single-issue voters. But, a subset appear to want Scandinavian-style reforms immediately. Or argue that Democrats and Republicans are identical on policy, so vote Green or stay home. For some liberals, that “bare minimum” bar is way to high for me to consider reasonable.

    • This is as succinct an argument against a two-party system as I could make if I were trying to do so.

    • And to be clear I didn’t think you thought the right is reasonable. Just that your initial framing of your thought seemed to imply it.

      Two thoughts on your re-framing:

      1. The “Democrats and Republicans are identical on policy” thing gets straw-manned a lot (in both directions), so I think it’s important to clarify that basically no one actually believes that statement at face value. People across the political spectrum understand there are legitimate and sometimes even meaningful distinctions between the parties. What (I think) people are actually arguing when this straw man is invoked is whether or not the democratic party is fundamentally oriented towards capital. If you think they are (as I do), then the dem=rep statement makes sense at a high level, which one could argue overshadows all the smaller distinctions between the parties (which I generally would not argue, at least when it comes to general elections).

      2. The “bare minimum” of a scandanavian-style system may seem unrealistic based on the last 40+ years of our politics. But at the same time, the effects of our last 40+ years of our politics have created an existential crisis (global warming) that necessitates a response more “extreme” than scandanavian-style reforms. So you may think the GND or whatever is unreasonable, but it’s really the only way we can hope to continue some semblance of society as we know it.

  5. The general dismissiveness combined with the suggestion of privilege is what I refer to. See link above my initial response for a suggestion — you’re right that we could get closer to M4A…we could get it all the way to President Biden’s desk!

  6. The general dismissiveness combined with the suggestion of privilege is what I refer to. See link above my initial response for an example of left frustration — you’re right that we could get closer to M4A…we could get it all the way to President Biden’s desk!

    • If it got to Biden’s desk, there would be an enormous public dialogue about it, and even if he declined to sign it, it would still advance the issue and increase the likelihood that it passes in the future.

      If Trump is re-elected, none of that will happen. He and the various state media outlets will decry M4A as socialism, and millions more Americans will lose health insurance.

      That’s an easy choice, even if you’re a single-issue voter.

    • That may very well be, but it also could turn out to fit a pattern we’ve witnessed before — incrementalism with opt-outs during a Democratic administration, followed by scorched earth in a Republican administration. Look, I can’t impeach the logic of “anyone but Trump” at this stage of the game, but I’ll never waver from the opinion that we had a real chance to get at some fundamental solutions — and instead, out of timidity, punted.

  7. Brian in ahwatukee

    A big problem the left has, myself included, is that Biden is a center right candidate. His history, and much of his campaign, and subsequent nomination has confirmed this over and over again. So when the left has legit and correct concerns over the Senator from MBNA it gets papered over from liberals with scorn. There is no engagement with actual and real problems with Biden because the alternative is so bad. That was the Same rhetoric with Romney. Or McCain and so on. The Democratic Party has been pretty piss poor at actually governing and the left wants a government that frankly doesn’t serve the interests of the donor class. That isn’t Joe MBNA. Trump is a result of Obama’s policies. That cannot be considered on the left so they want to try it again with Biden. What happens when Biden tries to redo Obama policies?

    • You hash those ideas out in the primary. You (and I don’t mean you specifically) don’t throw a tantrum in the general when the alternative is an actual protofascist whose last meaningful check on his power consolidation is an overwhelming defeat in two months.

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