Starting at 1 pm ET.

Keith Law: You know they won’t win. Klawchat.

Samir: Corbin Carroll and Tyler Freeman are two prospects for whom there were reports of unlocked power at the alternate sites. Did you hear the same? Which of the two do you think could surprise the most with their power tool?
Keith Law: Carroll had power before, so I’m not sure what would have been unlocked. I haven’t heard that on Freeman, but I’m also pretty skeptical of anything I hear from alternate sites because it’s all from the teams themselves.

Ken: The sign stealing scandal doesn’t appear to be going away which must be concerning to MLB. As more people begin to speak out MLB’s investigation of the Astros and Red Sox is looking worse. If the “Yankee letter” is unsealed and discloses other undisclosed infractions by the Yankees or other clubs is Rob Manfred done as Commish?
Keith Law: That’s hilarious. There is no chance this undoes Manfred as Commissioner. He’d be at greater risk if he penalized more teams, not fewer.

Michael: Have you heard any word/update on how some of the newer Rockie prospects have been doing at instructs, specifically Veen and Romo?
Keith Law: The Rockies aren’t allowing scouts at instructs, so no, unfortunately.

Derek: Alec Bohm…..future stud or SSS this year?
Keith Law: Future star with the bat. Probably ends up at 1B, which does cut off some of his statistical upside.

Ben (MN): Do you plan on reading Hugh Acheson’s new “How to Cook”? I bought it even though it is aimed at new cooks because I figure if it is Hugh it will be worth a read anyway. Do you have any favorite recipes from his other cookbooks?
Keith Law: I do – the only book of his I haven’t gotten was the slow cooker one. I just made his kohlrabi and pecan salad from The Broad Fork last night. That book also has a great carrot soup recipe and a shiitake/ponzu salad I love.

Preston: I don’t like not being super interested in the Series. Maybe it’s that my Cubs stunk it up. Maybe it’s no atmosphere. But I’d like to blame it on bullpenning. It just doesn’t make for a smooth watch. What can/should be done in the future?
Keith Law: If MLB capped the number of pitchers teams could bring, that would help. I think the 3 batter minimum rule has had the unforeseen consequence of teams filling their pens with more relievers capable of going an inning-plus, which makes bullpenning much easier than it was when teams had a specialist or two.

Jeremy: Was there more going on with mike foltynewicz than just decreased velocity? seems like braves needed help and some reports said his velo was coming back but he never got another crack. is he worth taking a shot on this offseason or toast?
Keith Law: Worth a shot, but he’s had some minor arm stuff that is concerning. I’d put him behind guys like Hamels or Kluber, who have longer track records of success but are coming off injury-wrecked years.

Krontz: Is there a board game bubble? If not, possibly soon? Finally, how can the industry adapt to sustain growth?
Keith Law: I read this at first as asking if there was a place where board gamers could all go and live in a bubble so they could play endless board games without fear of COVID-19, and that sounds pretty great, actually. Yes, there are more board games published right now than the market can really support. I’m not sure how long it will last, but my suspicion is that the $50+ games, and publishers that rely on those, will be at highest risk. An extended economic downturn would probably exacerbate that issue.

Randall: Who is that rays #1 prospect we’ve been hearing about for years ? He still #1 for you ? I haven’t heard much about him lately
Keith Law: You probably haven’t heard much about Wander Franco lately because there were no minor league games this year.

Dab: Do you think Brailyn Marquez ends up as a starter?
Keith Law: I think it’s possible, but he might be a better reliever.
Keith Law: As opposed to saying he can’t hold up as a starter, or lacks the stuff for it.

Jeremy: which GM jobis better — phillies or marlins?
Keith Law: Phillies. My understanding is that Gary Denbo has so much authority within Miami that a new GM would at least have to defer somewhat to his judgments on players, and I think many GM candidates would prefer the greater independence of the Philly job.

Randall: What’s the outlook for the Rockies ? Never hear much about good prospects from them. Future bright ?
Keith Law: I just did a Q&A with our Rockies beat writer about that.

J5: How many HR’s do you project Ke’Bryan Hayes hits during his prime years?
Keith Law: 15-20. I don’t think he has the swing path for more. I think he can really hit, though, and he’s an 80 defender.

John: With Mitch submarining a new round of stimulus to hamstring the next administration from growth is there any hope that without a clean democrat sweep we just see obstruction the next 4 years?
Keith Law: If the GOP holds the Senate, we will see obstruction for the next 4 years for sure.
Keith Law: That’s the GOP’s whole playbook and the Democratic Party still hasn’t adjusted.

Jeremy: buy-low free agents or trade options teams should consider?
Keith Law: My top 40 free agents ranking will go up two days after the WS ends. As for trade targets, I’ll write more about that in November.

Mac: Rocker or Leiter?
Keith Law: I’ll say “other.” This idea that Kumar Rocker is the clear 1-1 guy for 2021 is so completely ridiculous. We do this shit every year, naming one guy who’s famous as the obvious #1 overall pick, and most years it’s wrong. Rocker is a first-rounder, and Leiter will be too if he throws more strikes, but either has a lot to improve to get to 1-1 for me.

John: Is Arozarena much of a prospect going forward?
Keith Law: Yes, but October is an inherently small sample. He isn’t suddenly a top 10 overall prospect, even though he’s played like one this month.

Jason: What would you do if you were the Phillies?  Would McPhail go and who would you hire as President/GM?  The Phillies need a lot of help in the front office and most fans are worried who they will pick.
Keith Law: Everyone seems to think McPhail will retire after his contract expires next fall, so they could wait a year and hire both at that point (when Theo Epstein’s contract will also be up), or they could hire a GM now and plan not to replace McPhail in that role.

Guy B: How can I argue with some of my right wing friends that making someone wear a mask and being pro choice can be the same thing?  I find it hard to reason with them, thanks Keith.
Keith Law: It’s hard to reason with the unreasonable. You’re wearing a mask to protect other humans in your community.

Big Fan: Hi Keith, after a few years of patience, Dansby Swanson finally blossomed.  I know you’ve always been skeptical of his bat speed, but did Austin Riley show you anything this year that would warrant the same patience?
Keith Law: Nope, on the contrary, he has had every bit as much trouble with velocity as I expected. He whiffed on average or better fastballs more than twice as often as he had base hits against them. This is what he is.

Troy: IMO giving $200M to a C is a mistake. Am I wrong in thinking JT will be overpaid and Philly is right to let him walk?
Keith Law: Yeah I wouldn’t give him $200MM … even at a six-year deal, which seems like the longest he should get, that’s more than he’s likely to be worth as a catcher in his 30s whose durability will probably decline over the course of the deal.

Dab: On a scale of 1-10 how much does it bother you to see fans at the games now? I really don’t care for it at all. Pretty hypocritical of the league to make players be ultra cautious for months only to let thousands of people into the same stadium as them
Keith Law: A 10. Tiny reward, huge risk. And look at how few fans are actually wearing masks.
Keith Law: The biggest risk is going in/out of the stadium, where fans will be clustering at the entry/egress points and unable to distance.

Jason: Do you think the brewers window from 2018-2019 has closed?  If so, what should they do– Trade Hader?
Keith Law: No, not closed, not with Burnes and Woodruff looking like a 1-2 now. But it’s going to get harder and more expensive to build the rest of the roster around them because their system is so thin now.

Diego: Hello Keith – what will be your first travel spot after covid?
Keith Law: Sort of depends on when that point is, but if you’re talking leisure travel involving a plane, probably Europe.

Jay: Are there people out there who actually enjoy Buck & Smoltz?  Buck seems to have a pretty low level of baseball knowledge for a broadcaster, and Smoltz repeatedly criticizes the product and harps on all the confidence/momentum nonsense.  When Smoltz tries to explain mechanics, he uses weird terms of art that no casual fan is ever going to follow.  How do these two smug buffoons keep getting tapped to call LCS and World Series games every year?
Keith Law: I do not understand why we’re stuck with Smoltz, who seems to disdain the product on the field and utterly refuses to learn about other ways of looking at the game, in the critical role of color analyst. I just can’t listen to these guys. If he were just intellectually curious enough to consider different perspectives, and balance his commentary accordingly, it would be a quantum improvement. But I also don’t think you should have a job like that (or mine, for that matter) if you lack that sort of curiosity.

Nate: i know you’re a big Anthony Kay fan, but other than him, Pearson, and ryu, do the jays have anyone internally who you think can be slotted into the rotation starting in 2021?
Keith Law: Maybe Murphy can’t hold up as a starter but I’d give him a shot.

Greg: I’m not asking you if Bryse Wilson is going to be the guy he was against LA in every start of his career, but what are your future expectations of him? Can he be a mid-rotation type?
Keith Law: I do think so. Been on my top 100 at least the last two years.

Ted: Do you think Jonathan Stiever has good chance to be a top-end of rotation guy?
Keith Law: No, but I like him as a back-end starter who could get to mid-rotation.

Jason: What are you expecting at tonight’s debate, the same nonsense, does a mute button help? And Keith how many Chinese bank accounts do you have?
Keith Law: Different nonsense, I guess. It’s pretty clear Trump believes he can lie with impunity – and he’s not wrong in that – although a mute button probably helps Biden stay on message. I refuse to answer your second question on the grounds that I may incriminate myself.

Jack: If you’re GM of the Braves, what are your next steps to getting over that last hump?
Keith Law: Go add a corner bat. They’re weak at 3b, one OF corner (assuming Acuña and Pache handle two spots), DH if that’s permanent. Ozuna was a brilliant move. Maybe they try that again, a one-year flier on a guy who was down last year. But I think they also likely need to get a more guaranteed thumper at one of those spots.

Sho: When a player goes on a hot streak, how much do you attribute to 1) physical 2) mental 3) luck?
Keith Law: I’d say it’s nearly all luck, or randomness, which I think is probably a better word for it.

Jeremy: does luhnow run a baseball team ever again?
Keith Law: My guess is no.

Ted: Have you tried or heard of anyone trying one of those Ooni pizza ovens? I’m considering the pellet wood version.
Keith Law: I own one. It’s great. Gets to 800 degrees pretty easily, cooks a pizza (if you use the right dough, which has to be lower hydration than a dough for your home oven) in 90 seconds.

Bob Loblaw: The Cardinals are confounding.  How are they so good at scouting and developing pitching but so bad at scouting and developing hitting?  The Arozorena and Voit trades look like debacles, but even going back, why did they trade Marco Gonzalez for Tyler ONeil?  That was a bad trade
Keith Law: I’m afraid that they overreacted to brief looks on some of those guys – Gonzales was so bad in his debut, and it seems like they concluded that his stuff wouldn’t work in the majors. But I give them a complete pass on Voit, who became a different hitter after leaving.

Steve: Is there minor league baseball next year?  If no how far back will it set talent development and impact the industry for years to come?
Keith Law: The odds are that there are no fans in 2021, at which point I think MLB has to step up and subsidize at least some MiLB teams/leagues, because the long-term cost in talent development will be enormous. It’s a revenue problem.

Minka: Favorite sushi roll?
Keith Law: I nearly always keep it simple when I get sushi – if the fish is good enough to eat raw, I want to taste the fish, not fillers. So I usually get nigiri rather than rolls, and if I get rolls they’re very simple ones that highlight the fish. I avoid things with sweet sauces, or tempura, or avocado, at least when ordering for myself. I’ll certainly eat other things if someone else orders.

Ben: Do you think there was a true benefit (over what his traditional MiLB path would be) for a guy like Riley Greene to be playing at the Toledo camp this summer? You hear stuff about facing better competition, but how much of that do you buy into? He’s an extremely talented guy, but still very young and inexperienced.
Keith Law: It’s a binary question – you had two choices with Greene, or Carroll, or CJ Abrams: They go to the alternate site, or they don’t play at all over the summer. In that case, the first option is clearly preferable.

Nate: The marlins were a great story this year, but do you seem them as a team on the rise that could legit compete next year, or more of a bad team still a while away that just got lucky with some SSS success last year?
James: Are you concerned about Mike Trout’s defensive metrics? Or are they likely a fluke given the short season? And do you still see him as a 10 WAR player for the next few years?
Keith Law: Nate: An average-ish team that got a bit lucky, with upside over the next several years but probably not a playoff team in 2021.
Keith Law: James: All defensive metrics are unreliable for 2020. The sample size was just too small.

Pat D: I’m choosing to watch the Giants/Eagles game tonight because I like to torture myself by watching the Giants’ ineptitude, I refuse to watch the WS as a bitter Yankees fan, and I just can’t listen to Trump’s voice.  Does that sound sane?
Keith Law: No Ertz or Sanders, though. Gonna be really ugly.

Josh: Hi.  My household income is around $500,000.  Please, PLEASE tax me more, and give struggling families a fighting chance (comprehensive healthcare, after-school care through high school, etc.).
Keith Law: One thing I do not really understand is why so many people who make far less than whatever threshold Biden might set for a higher marginal tax rate – and I’m pretty sure I will be paying more if he’s elected – are opposed to it. If you make that much money, it is at least a rational view to say you oppose a plan that will cost you more in taxes and almost certainly yield you less value in direct return (although you may gain psychic value from improving public goods, or even secondary value from living in a safer or more prosperous community/country). If you don’t, though, why the fuck are you opposed to taxing people who earn annual income that puts them in the top 1% of US earners marginally more?
Keith Law: For the record: I’ll pay more under Biden, and I’m good with that. Fund health care. Re-fund environmental regulations, diversity training, and basic science research.

Tim: Game 7 NLCS, worst TOOTBLAN of all time?
Keith Law: Kolten Wong in 2013 (?) was pretty bad too.

Mike: Safe to assume if your boardgame list says medium complexity (or less) that a 10 year old could play? You don’t have a list oriented to families, right? anyway, have a great day.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s right. I chose to put complexity tags on those rather than carve out a separate list, because every kid is a little different and I figured you would know your kid(s) better than I would.

JR: Is “Piranesi” in your queue of books to read soon? I enjoyed it. I’ll admit I was shocked to see it was only 250 pages after her first book was over 1000.
Keith Law: Yes, but maybe over the winter.

DEF: I really like your lists of top board games and top 2 player board games. Any chances of getting a top solo board game list?
Keith Law: Yes, for sure, this winter.
Keith Law: I’ll include games that are strictly solo plus those with good solitaire modes.

Joel: Did Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright do enough for the Braves to feel comfortable relying on them in 2021?
Keith Law: Wilson yes, Wright probably not. I expect both to make starts for Atlanta in 2021 but I think Wright will have to fight to maintain a spot in the rotation.

Kevin: What is your approach to following the election results on November 3rd? Most of my friends say they’ll tune out and wait for real developments. I seriously doubt my ability to do the same, as good as it may be for my mental health.
Keith Law: I’ve been involved in some local elections, especially Kyle Evans Gay’s campaign to flip our State Senate district blue, so I’ll be watching results at many levels.

J5: Lorenzen was ok as an SP in the short stint.  CIN will lose Bauer… any chance he makes the rotation?
Keith Law: I don’t buy it. I think he’s a reliever only.

J5: Is Julio Urias better suited in the bullpen w/ Price coming back next year?  Or does Gonsolin or May get the boot?
Keith Law: Urias should start if he can handle the workload. Also, I am not quite ready to bank on Price making 30+ starts next year … my guess is May starts in AAA (if such a thing exists) and becomes the call-up when they need another starter.

Josh: Enjoying any tv shows lately?
Keith Law: Just finished The Vow (great start, petered out in the last 3 episodes). Enjoying the new season of GBBO. Mostly watching the playoffs this month, though. We’ll get back on movies and TV next week.

J5: Lamet, Clevinger, Gore, Patino, Paddack, Davies… which one doesnt make it next yr in the rotation?
Keith Law: I think Gore is the odd man out right now.

Rupert: I have a 5 and 7 year old, and there’s basically no board game I’ve found that can keep their attention (or at least the 5 year old’s attention).  Any suggestions?
Keith Law: It depends a bit on what they like – I see a lot of games suitable for ages 5+, like Ticket to Ride First Journey, but if your kids don’t like maps or train games, that may not be the ideal choice. I haven’t cracked Dragomino, the young players’ version of Kingdomino, yet, but it looks promising.

Dr. Bob: RE: The Arozorena question. At only 19, Andruw Jones broke upon our consciousness in the 1996 playoffs and WS after only playing 31 games that year. Was he already considered a top prospect? In any words, is there any correlation to Arozorena?
Keith Law: Andruw was one of the best prospects in baseball before 1996. I think BA had him in their top 2 or 3, if not actually at 1.

Geoff: I’ve found myself thinking about this recently: what will be the point where you’re confident about/feel safe being around others in a “normal” way (i.e. no mask, large crowds, etc.)? After there’s a real, effective vaccine obviously, but right after? A few weeks after when infections are way down? Longer?
Keith Law: If infections are way down, and we’re seeing high enough vaccination rates in the places I want to go, then I’ll travel. It might be safer to travel to Europe, for example, where they have fewer batshit anti-mask people.

Ben: Keith, do you have any concerns about Biden’s connections with China, Russia & Ukraine? Not saying compared to Trump, just in a vacuum, does this new information trouble you at all?
Keith Law: No because I don’t fall for bullshit.

Jason: Is a healthy rotation of Soroka, Fried, Anderson, Wright, and Wilson a top 10-type rotation, or am I putting too much hope in Wright and hype into SSS from Anderson and Wilson?
Keith Law: With Soroka having some history of injuries and Wilson/Wright both showing at least some inconsistency, I’d like to see them take a shot at a one-year starter, even if that’s also someone who isn’t a lock for 30 starts, to increase their chances of getting those innings from somewhere other than the Josh Tomlins of the world.

Ben (Chi): What’s your take on all these Cubs layoffs?  Penny wise, pound foolish?
Keith Law: Misanthropic. Although given that Todd Ricketts profile in the New Yorker, I’m hardly surprised.

Mike: Keith, they have to do something about the time the World Series starts. With games taking close to 4 hours, am I the only one who checks out early & goes to bed?
Keith Law: I agree with this … we get up at 6:45 here for school and games ending around midnight means that I’m running on fumes most days. I actually went back to bed this morning because I had such a bad headache, which I think was a function of lack of sleep.

Guest: You’ve previously said Ian Anderson has the ceiling of a #2 but I believe this was before the development of his change. Does the new pitch change your view of his (already high) ceiling?
Keith Law: I’m holding to that because I think the breaking ball is a little light and the fastball is good not outstanding.
Keith Law: The changeup is a 70, though, and I did not have that.

Jason: Do you ever use UberEats or Doordash?What do you think about these delivery apps?
Keith Law: I don’t. I’ve read that their terms are pretty bad for the restaurants, so we always order directly.

TomBruno23: What is the deal with tea? Granted I like coffee and I sound like the people who hate on coffee. But tea to me tastes like someone took perfectly good water and ran it through a sewer.
Keith Law: There are so many kinds of tea – black, white, green, oolong, plus tisanes like red – and even within some of those categories there are vast differences in flavor profiles (e.g., green includes matcha, which tastes like grass, and hojicha, which is roasted and more earthy), that you might just not have found the right kind for your palate.

Ryan: As a Dbacks fan, please tell me there is hope for this team! The Dodgers are loaded. The Padres will be good for a long time too. But the Dbacka major league team is such a disaster, and the front office seems to think it will be fine next year?! Is there any hope they can compete again in 2022 or so?
Keith Law: Lot of hope. Really like the position player prospects in the low minors. But that franchise really needs an MiLB season in 2021.

Pizza is good: I asked a couple chats back if you thought frozen Pizzeria Bianca was worth a shot. I did and it was really terrific. Individual ingredients really stand out. Good rec. thanks.
Keith Law: Awesome! I know it’s quite expensive but for the best pizza in the country it’s not an unreasonable splurge.

Ridley: Just so we’re clear, Rudy Giuliani’s excuses were bullshit, weren’t they?
Keith Law: Oh absolutely.

J5: Out of these rotation candidates, Severino/German/Deivi/Montgomery/Schmidt, which 2-3 do you think makes it next year?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t bank on Severino being healthy for a full season, but he’ll make some starts. Deivi probably did the most to earn the spot.

addoeh: Any plans for a pizza list update?  I know you haven’t been able to cross many off your list recently.
Keith Law: I was going to do one this spring or summer, but the pandemic put it on hold.

Adam: Maybe the Padres didn’t send away any “premier” talent for Mike Clevinger, but they basically gutted their upper minor/major league depth in the trade for him. That could come back to haunt them in a full season, right?
Keith Law: Eh, Trammell’s the one guy they might most regret trading and he was in a different deal. I’m worried about this ridiculous Campusano story … felony charges for weed possession? was he in Georgia or Indonesia?

Josh: My theory (on people who make far less than whatever threshold Biden might set for a higher marginal tax rate, opposing it) is, way too briefly:  they (1) have no idea how much wealth is concentrated at far-right reaches of the income distribution curve (big numbers are really hard, even for smart people), and/or (2) aspire to the grievances of the 0.1% having to fork over millions in taxes.
Keith Law: I’ve heard #2 as an explanation for decades, but I think #1 is more plausible. And maybe it’s like people trying to understand how large the universe is and how tiny we are relative to it. We just can’t. So if you make $30K a year, can you really imagine the difference in wealth and standard of living for someone making 20 times that?

Mike: Is it a foregone conclusion that Lindor gets traded before next season?  If so, most likely landing spot?
Keith Law: I think so. I’m not sure what the market is right now, though. Some of the teams that should be most interested might not have the pieces to make the trade.

Ridley: Lauren Witzke. Please tell me she’s not going to win that seat.
Keith Law: She’ll be lucky to get 1/3 of the vote. She’s an open white nationalist running in a very blue state. She might win Kent or Sussex counties but more than half of our population is right here in New Castle.

TomBruno23: Jones was #21 pre-95, #1 pre-96 and #1 pre-97 on BA’s lists.
Keith Law: I was right! I should trust my memory sometimes. But not too often.

Guest: Thanks for the chat, Keith. Assuming owners approve the Mets sale, what do you think of Cohen turning baseball ops over to Sandy Alderson? I always loved Sandy, and am okay with pairing him with a young, smart GM (you interested in the job?) but I also wonder if it might be better to turn the page completely from past eras or even to try to lure Theo from the sinking ship that is the Cubs ownership.
Keith Law: Thrilled to see Sandy return, think he’s so respected that he’ll get the right kind of person in as GM. Plus the pattern of execs going over the GM to Jeff or Fred Wilpon is gone now.

Philip C.: Daniel Lynch reports from the alternate site were electric. What is timeline for his debut?
Keith Law: I bet we would have seen him this summer if the Royals had been contenders.

Mike: Franklin BBQ brisket is now available on Goldbelly.  $250 for a 5lb brisket.  Worth it?
Keith Law: I no longer eat beef, but I have had their brisket, and it is absolutely incredible. If you’re reasonable about portion sizes, that’s about $12.50 per portion – brisket is rather fatty, and if you’re eating 6-8 ounces, well, vaya con Dios – and that’s a good price for high-quality beef.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I’m taking a week off leading up to the election to volunteer for various campaigns, so there won’t be a chat next week, but the top 40 free agent rankings post will go up some time between next Tuesday and Friday, and I may do a live Zoom Q&A through the Athletic to support that. Thanks for reading, everyone. Stay safe, wear your masks, and vote for reason and science.

My latest board game review for Paste covers the gorgeous but ultimately unsatisfying Tang Garden. If you enjoy the chat below, check out my new book The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, now out in hardcover.

Keith Law: My love is rotten to the core. Klawchat.

Todd Boss: Is there really such a thing as an “Undecided voter” right now?  In this partisan, narrative driven world, who at this point is still making up their minds on which way to vote?  Can we just FFD to 11/3 please?
Keith Law: A front office friend texted me that question last night – who the hell is still undecided? Either you’re in the cult, or you’re disgusted by the last four years (and especially the last six months). I don’t understand anyone who’s in between.
Keith Law: Of course, some dipshit journalist tracked down Ken Bone – who said he’s “undecided” – rather than, you know, finding marginalized voters who feel unrepresented by either party, or people who want to vote but find it hard to do so because of voter suppression, or just anyone who isn’t another white man.

Ben (MN): Oofta. The Twins. There is a lot of talk in MN about whether they should rely on some of their younger but near-ready prospects next year (Jeffers, Kiriloff, Rooker) or stand-pat with what they have. Any moves you think they should make? Trading Garver/Rosario seems to make sense, but they aren’t likely to get much in return.
Keith Law: LaVelle Neal was on my podcast this week and we talked about exactly that – he thinks they’ll trade Rosario, and at least look at trading Garver. Rooker’s upside is limited and I’m not sure where he gets to play if they bring Cruz back on a one-year deal.

Jack S: Keith–I was under the impression that teams’ minor league, or sub-MLB, facility this year was limited in how many players they could house.  Was there any way for teams to progress their lower tier (A ball, for example) prospects this season or gauge their skills in any way?  Are they still having some kind of Fall Ball?
Keith Law: Most teams are holding some sort of instructional league, expanding it for more players, but not every team is allowing other teams’ scouts to watch (and thus in return they can’t send their scouts around, which seems extremely short-sighted, even by the short-sighted standards of Myopic League Baseball). So we’ll hear some things on prospects but not a ton.

Jesse B: Randy Arozarena. SSS or could be a future All Star?
Keith Law: It’s obviously SSS, but he has a lot of ability and thus potential upside, especially given his defense.
Keith Law: But yeah, he hasn’t even played enough to lose ROY eligibility.

Bill G: Hi Keith.  Ignoring the pandemic and financial issues, and only focusing on the talent, would you recommend baseball contract to 28 teams, expand to 32 teams, or stay where they are at 30 teams.  Any insight to your reasoning would be appreciated.  Thanks!
Keith Law: Contraction is ridiculous – just a ploy by owners to try to extract public funds for stadiums. There’s enough talent out there for 32 teams – yes, even enough pitching – and there are underserved markets, like Nashville, that would be good for MLB to include. But MLB has also locked itself into markets that are probably going to have revenue issues over the long term and may be better off moving some franchises before expanding.

Tom: I realize it’s a ridiculously SSS in a bizarro baseball season, but have you seen/heard anything to believe that Tanner Houck’s apparent leap is real and sustainable?
Keith Law: I watched two of his three starts and both times his velocity tapered off pretty early, which would be a concern if that’s still true next year after a normal offseason and spring training. I also still don’t really see what his weapon will be vs LHB. He wrecked righties, though, with a nearly 40% K rate against them.

Sam: This year had a very large number of players make their MLB debut and teams pushed players that probably were not ready for MLB.  Assuming we have Minor League Baseball next season do you see a number of top level prospect like Joey Bart for example going back to the minors to continue to improve or will teams keep pushing these players and keep them on the Major league roster?
Keith Law: Bart I doubt. But I’m sure plenty of other rookies will go back to the minors to start the year for baseball or service-time reasons. Luis Patiño comes to mind for the former – great stuff, huge upside, wasn’t ready, at least not to start.

DRB: So you don’t like Deftones and you think Tame Impala’s last album is his best? I’m sorry Klaw, but when it comes to music, you’re like those people who claimed Junior Lake was a future star.  In all serious though, I will say I’ve gotten a lot of great album recs from you, but none of them ever became all-stars in my rotation.
Keith Law: Those aren’t even close to my most controversial music opinions.

Matt: How do you feel about Willi Castro going forward? Obviously he’s not going to continue to BABIP .450 like he did this season but his BB rate went up and K rate went down as the season progressed as did the quality of his contact so if those trends continue they may help offset some of the inevitable BABIP regression.  To sum it up, do you think he could be an .850OPS/350wOBA type bat going forward?
Keith Law: I’ve generally been high on Castro because everyone raved about his feel for the game, and because I thought the swing would work for contact, so I think he could hit enough to be a regular somewhere. I was surprised to see that he wasn’t very good at short or third this year, though; I thought he could stay at short or be very good at 2b/3b.

davealden53: I know this story has become old news but would you have signed the letter in Harper’s about intellectual freedom?
Keith Law: I would not; I think Isaac Chotiner’s interview in the New Yorker of one of the signatories gets at the reasons why I wouldn’t.

John Olerud: Not sure how much you listen to the announcers in games. But I was watching/listening to the Atlanta/Marlins game yesterday and Buck Showalter’s good ol’ boy commentary was a little awkward to listen to at times, in its subtle insinuations of exactly who were the true “baseballers” amongst the guys on the field.  Indeed, I don’t think he even had any insight as to how this might have come off, but if you care or are at liberty to comment, I imagine his “takes” aren’t exactly unique among the managerial ranks in baseball?
Keith Law: I did not hear this, but what you describe is definitely a common view within baseball. I am automatically suspicious of any opinions like that because they can very easily be cover for racial prejudices (not saying that’s true of Buck, I didn’t hear his comments, and I’ve never heard anyone say they thought he was racist).

Jason: Assuming Atlanta actually reaches the NLCS, would it make more sense to have a bullpen day for Game 3 with Wright starting Game 4, knowing that Game 5 would either be the Game 1 starter on short rest (Fried, unless the NLDS goes 5 games) or another bullpen day?
Keith Law: What’s the alternative in your mind there – bullpen game 4, Wright 3?

davealden53: Willians Astudillo isn’t a great ballplayer but his skillset is fun and potentially useful with the right utilization.  However, the Twins seem unsure what to do with him.  Would he benefit from a clean start with a different organization?  What could Minnesota get for him?  A 100 to 150 prospect?
Keith Law: I don’t think he gets a legit prospect in return. Fine player, and very fun to watch, but ultimately not that valuable.

Todd Boss: How disappointed are you that Trump refuses to participate in a 2nd debate?  I mean, the first one was such a civilized, informative discussion…
Keith Law: After he did himself no favors in the first debate, I expected him to find a way out of a second one.
Keith Law: In a virtual debate, the moderator could just mute him when he interrupts or goes well beyond his time. That’s his worst nightmare.

John: When do you see Jeter Downs making his MLB debut?
Keith Law: Next year (2021) for sure. Would be shocked if we don’t see him.

Frank: Has any team in recent history been more of a favorite to win the World Series than the Dodgers are this year?  I know you always talk about anything can happen in a short series but is there anything you have seen so far, regular season or post season to make you believe the Dodgers dont win the WS?
Keith Law: Both of those things can be true at the same time. They could be the strongest favorites ever, and still only have a slightly better than random chance to win it all.
Keith Law: I do agree they’re the favorites, though. I picked a Rays/Dodgers WS and just as a fan of great teams would be very happy to see that. Also that’s the one AL playoff team left that has never won a WS vs the NL team with the second-longest drought (SD has never won).

bighen: I know you haven’t been a huge fan of Gimenez and have liked Rosario in the past – any change in thought there? I realize not a lot to go on.  I think the ceiling for Gimenez is a lot lower but he seems to be a much better fielder for a team that badly needs some good defenders.   Do you think the Mets can trade Rosario for anything of note at this point – perhaps as part of a package to land a legit CF ?
Keith Law: I think Rosario would still have value because other teams will still remember how they rated him as a prospect and figure the Mets screwed him up (which is fair, I think; they’ve had a lot of development issues over the last 5+ years). Most teams, especially teams that are building or just always hunting for value (Oakland, TB), love to try to fix out-of-favor prospects. And yeah, I would too. As for Gimenez, he has a soft regular ceiling and I think you saw it this year.

Greg: Why don’t pitchers like Dustin May and Brusdar Graterol get more strikeouts with such filthy stuff?
Keith Law: May gets a shit-ton of ground balls. Graterol’s stuff is hard but I don’t think it’s “filthy” the way you might mean.

That Guy in Detroit: I guess the first shots of the civil war have been fired in Michigan.  Sigh
Keith Law: I would have guessed Alabama, but it was inevitable.

Jon: After watching Alex Reyes, Genesis Cabrera, and Austin Gomber this year I’m really excited about the cardinals future rotation. Do you think all 3 can be starters in the future?
Keith Law: No, maybe, probably, in order. Reyes hasn’t stayed healthy, ever, and the delivery doesn’t give me reason to think he will.

DRB: Could you share your thoughts on Klentaks tenure? How much blame for you give him for the Phillies awfulness the last few years?
Keith Law: Meghan Montemurro has a huge piece coming Friday on this, with contributions from me on their drafts and player development. It’s complicated, and some of the problems predate Klentak, too.

Paul: At this point I feel “undecided” is code for “I’m probably going to vote for Trump, I’m just waiting for some minor Biden gaff to give me an excuse to do so”
Keith Law: Agreed. Or, I suppose, a Biden voter who is surrounded by Trump voters, and similarly feels unwilling to say so publicly.

G: Is there a chance Ke’Bryan Hayes actually gets ROY votes? I was happy to see you picked him, but figured his short(er) stay in the majors would cost him votes.
Keith Law: I bet he gets a lot of 2nd/3rd place votes but maybe nobody except for Pittsburgh voters puts him first, because of what I wrote about voting early or just because they dismissed him on playing time.

Jimbo: Thoughts on Zac Gallen going fwd ? I know you were very high on Jazz but I don’t think the marlins would do that deal today do you ?
Keith Law: I think both teams are still extremely happy with the deal. Gallen is almost certainly going to be on my next “players i was wrong about” column, probably next September. He’s much better than I realized, even after scouting him live when he was still with STL.

bighen: I still know quite a few bright people that are undecided. I find it shocking but they are almost all wealthier people that are worried that a Biden win will deeply hurt their finances.  It sounds selfish and seemingly has no basis in fact but that is the repeated mantra I hear
Keith Law: I think that view is objectively unsustainable, though. Nothing Biden could do on tax or economic policy will do as much damage as our government’s inadequate response to the pandemic has. (That’s without even arguing that your long-term financial health depends on some sort of climate policy other than “sweep the forest floors.”)

Louie: You’re Theo Epstein. If it is time to break up the band, who do you keep on offense besides Happ, Heyward and Contreras? With the FA clocks ticking for KB, Rizzo, Baez and Schwarber?
Keith Law: Well, if I’m Theo Epstein, I know I have a year left on my deal, and I’m looking at the opportunity in Philly, and rumors that there may be one next year in Seattle, and maybe even talk to the Angels or Mets to see if I can get the autonomy I would need in either spot. But to your question, I’d pay Baez, and try to make Rizzo a Cub for the rest of his career, but Bryant is going to FA no matter what.

Bob (LA): Does this series between the Dodgers and Padres make you think Logan White could be a good hire for the Angels or Phillies? Both Teams mention wanting to draft and develop better. Hes partly responsible for building the core of both of these teams.
Keith Law: Great name, although I think the Angels want an experienced GM who’ll try to win right now rather than develop. I’ve heard Bobby Heck with the Phillies and Mets, at least. Ray Montgomery’s and Tony Lacava’s names have come up. Those are all names from the scouting world; I’m assuming that there will also be at least as many candidates from the front office/analytics side, but I haven’t heard them yet.

Jimbo: Thoughts on the job Mike Hazen has done in AZ ? Seems like a C- or D job he has done. Also is he handcuffed by poor ownership/CEO ?
Keith Law: Oh, I think he’s done a well above-average job. System is way better than it was.

Jimbo: how has exercise been going ? Losing weight ? More energy ?
Keith Law: I lost 8-10 pounds since I started running and now that’s just holding steady, which is fine. More energy, but more soreness too since I’m trying to run 5 km each time out.

Mike: Biggest positive surprise of the teams that did not make the playoffs? Giants, Orioles or Royals?
Keith Law: I’m floored the Orioles won that many games with that pitching staff.

Nate: Keith, if you were Rick Hahn, would you be looking to add “big named” free agent starter or would you roll with a rotation rounded out by Dunning, Cease, Kopech, and possibly Stiever after Giolito and Keuchel?
Keith Law: I think that rotation is more than good enough, but if you can get an established above-average or better starter, you should probably do so, and then see if, say, Cease and Stiever/Dunning can get you another piece you need.
Keith Law: Or those could be the same thing – trade two young starters for a guy who is higher probability for 2021.

Pat: Your opening remark answers my question. As an 80’s child & metal head, I assumed you were a VH fan. Eddie’s death effected me more than most of the other 80’s icons. Just a singular talent who I was blessed to see 2x in concert (with Hagar, too young for DLR Era). A shame to see he couldn’t control his demons.
Keith Law: I was a huge fan of his fretwork – people call him an innovator, but he didn’t invent two-hand tapping or anything else, it is that he did that shit better than almost anyone else in rock history. Just watch his hands – it’s like watching peak Stanley Jordan, like they’re hypermobile or had fewer bones or something because it seems like no human should be able to move their hands like that. I was never as big a fan of VH’s songs as I was of his playing, though, and of course his bizarre belief that a metal guitar pick caused his throat cancer and not several decades of smoking is the sort of denialism that makes me stabby.

Kevin: Why can’t we have some broadcasters who at least understand analytics?
Keith Law: Because the powers that be are still operating from a 50-year-old playbook that says you have to have ex-players in the booth.

Josh: While there probably aren’t many undecided voters, about 40% of eligible adults will not vote at all. If only the media would frame the election around reaching out to those people (who happen to mostly be marginalized groups, people of color, and/or low-income)with policy designed to benefit them and calling out voter suppression. The myth of the engaged but undecided voter is incredibly damaging to the political process.
Keith Law: And the challenge of getting more of those people to vote should be more important to everyone who cares about our democracy … except Sen. Mike Lee, I suppose.

Rod: Still a small sample, but I’m surprised by how good Ian Anderson’s changeup is, despite the lack of spin.  It feels like teams will eventually scout it better, but his delivery hides the ball well.  Has his ceiling risen or do you still project mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: Changeups don’t spin, though. His curveball doesn’t have great spin, and I think it’s a clear third pitch for him, but hitters do not see that changeup at all and I think it’s at least a 70 pitch.
Keith Law: (Which I would not have said in February, BTW.)

Cole: Do you think Billy Eppler’s firing by the Angels was warranted? And is Dombrowski really the best choice for their GM opening?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t have fired Eppler or Klentak, but those owners wanted scapegoats.

Moises: Any info on Mackenzie Gore? With the lack ofstarting pitching on Padres, I would have assumed he would’ve been called up. Mechanics? Injury?
Keith Law: Nothing I can report but you are asking the right question. He should be up, and he isn’t. What does that tell us

addoeh: How do you like your Van Halen?  Diamond Dave or Red Rocker.
Keith Law: DLR all the way.

mike sixel: Just stopping by to say thanks for the game, book, music, movie reviews. And to recommend Odin’s Ravens…have a great day.
Keith Law: I’ve heard good things about that game … I think it’s the one where the original Kickstarter guy took off with the money and another publisher came in, took over the game’s rights, and fulfilled it?

TC: If you’re starting a team in 2021, who would you rather have? Soto or Tatis Jr?
Keith Law: Tatis Jr.

Paul: I haven’t looked at the numbers yet, but it feels like there are a ton of home runs now in the playoffs after a bit of a dip in the regular season. Have they switched back to the super balls or its just a bunch of good home run hitters in the playoffs?
Keith Law: We need data, which I assume we’ll have soon, but I agree it at least looks like the ball is flying farther.

Manny machado: Am i a hypocrite for criticizing graterol’s celebration
Keith Law: Yes. Bad look.

Henry: Just want to thank you for the excellent Baratza grinder recommendation a few weeks ago. It’s made my pour over so much better.
Keith Law: They also have incredible customer service. Love that grinder.

Tom: Ryan Weathers, potential number 2 sp?
Keith Law: No, not based on anything I’ve seen or heard.

Tom: O neil cruz needs to be fired into the sun…But it’s crazy how little media attention this has gotten. He was a top prospect and now gotta think he will never see the big leagues
Keith Law: Probably getting less attention because it didn’t happen in the US and there were a lot of conflicting rumors about it. If he’s convicted, or MLB suspends him for a long time, it’ll probably be a bigger story.

Dr. Bob: I think your most controversial musical opinion is not liking Bruce Springsteen.
Keith Law: Certainly my most controversial in the press box.

Rick: Since the padres called up Patino, Morejon, and Weathers over Gore, do we need to re-think Gore’s prospect value?
Keith Law: No. Morejon was already in the majors. I answered on Gore above but I don’t think your premise supports your conclusion.

Alex: MLB is selling tickets to the World Series.  Personally seems crazy to me for so little revenue with the potential for your biggest event of the year to become super spreader and the PR disaster that would come from it.  If given a ticket would you go?
Keith Law: I agree completely. There should be no fans.

Zac: Should the Tigers pursue Aj Hinch or Alex Cora?
Keith Law: Yes. Both were very good managers. Both have served their penalties.

Josh: Assuming Biden wins and Trump is unsuccessful in whatever he tries to do post results being verified, I have a very strong sense that he will deliberately try and sabotage the office in some way that causes a catastrophic issue that Biden is forced to deal with in some way… thoughts?
Keith Law: Maybe, but other than fighting Barrett’s nomination, there isn’t a whole lot the Democrats can do – and their focus should be on securing the biggest possible win in November.

Matt: Keith – l was surprised to see Bauer 5th in your Cy Young rankings. I love your work and dislike Bauer personally, but I found myself wondering whether his past behavior affected your ranking.  I’m curious to know (1) why Bauer wasn’t higher, particularly compared to Fried who pitched 26% fewer innings, and (2) whether it is difficult to be objective with respect to someone who has a history of ugly behavior.
Keith Law: His behavior wasn’t a factor at all. That’s not anywhere in the voting criteria. I don’t think many people realized that he was 5th in bWAR for NL pitchers, and 3rd in fWAR, which I think makes any spot 3-4-5 defensible. If you want to argue he should have been 4th on my ballot, sure, I’m not that wedded to the order I had. I don’t think he belonged in 1st or 2nd, and people arguing over a difference of one or two spots on the ballot need to find something else to do.

Guest: Last night, in the year 2020, after a 60 game season, Smoltz actually touted Davies’ 4-1 record.
Keith Law: Smoltz has been a huge disappointment on TV and I don’t understand why he seems to have a lifetime appointment to the job. He disdains the present game, doesn’t understand analytics, and doesn’t even seem to grasp what scouts do or how things like prospect rankings work.

Dr. Bob: One advantage of the neutral sites: No tomahawk chop for Braves “home” games.
Keith Law: Excellent point.

Jason: I saw your report on Ian Anderson’s first start, and it was of course positive but a little hesitant on him having top-of-the-rotation stuff.  Do you have similar feelings after watching the postseason starts?
Keith Law: Yes.

Kiko Calero’s slider: Does his performance this postseason alter your future projection of Ian Anderson?
Keith Law: No. Literally no postseason performance is going to alter future projections on a player. That’s about the best possible formula for making large errors on players.
Keith Law: Hang on, Hall of Famer Brian Doyle is on line 2…

CR: Just a little anecdote from my morning in case any undecided voters are in this chat and wondering what voting for Trump aligns you with: Two Trump/Pence canvassers came to my house, a young guy at the door and an older guy in a car. The young guy was fine, just asked if I had any questions about the election or anything. I said no, that I was pretty confident in my vote for Biden and Democrats down ballot. Nothing more. Very courteous and neighborly. No big deal. The young goes back to the car and gets in, says something to the old guy, probably about me not being interested, and the old guy, clear as day, goes, “F*cking Jew. What do you expect?” before driving off. So if you’re undecided and still considering voting for Trump, know that this sort of antisemitism, and about a million other bigoted beliefs, are what you would be consenting to from your president and his supports.
Keith Law: I wish you’d recorded that one … would have been pretty newsworthy.

Joel: That Angels GM job, doesn’t seem like a good one?
Keith Law: You have Mike Trout and some decent prospects. You also have a meddling owner, a very involved team President, and the mandate to win yesterday.

Trav: More of a beg to the readers than a question: voting is not enough. If you can, *please* write postcards/call/text/start conversations. We need to run through the tape on 11/3.
Keith Law: We’re writing postcards tonight for Kyle Evans Gay, our candidate for the State Senate, who is trying to flip a district that has been red for over 20 years.
Keith Law: So, yeah, get involved. There’s still a lot of time left to make a difference.

Appa Yip Yip: What can we realistically expect from Alejandro Kirk, and what’s the pie in the sky outcome Jays fans are already assuming is reality?
Keith Law: Realistic would be fringe regular, but ceiling is All-Star, and I think that’s more than some pie in the sky outcome.

Morris: The narrative around Hosmer being some sort of postseason producer drives me a bit nuts. He’s not a good hitter in the regular season (278/336/435) but he’s somehow much worse in the postseason (257/311/389) and despite his ring saves his worst for the biggest moments – 224/273/286 in his two World Series. Why does he get so much love from announcers and analysts in the playoffs?
Keith Law: Because facts don’t matter. They don’t look this stuff up and there’s no accountability in those roles.
Keith Law: I have watched the playoffs on mute almost every inning because so many of these guys refuse to do the most basic requirements of their jobs. It’s one thing to have a questionable opinion on a player or something that happens in game. It is another to be dead fucking wrong on a fact you could confirm in ten seconds on the internet.

John: For what it’s worth, I’m still undecided between Biden and a third party vote.  I’ve always voted Republican before 2016, and voted third party then.  I was leaning toward Biden this year, but the Democrats’ threat to pack the Supreme Court is a big issue to me, because it would further undermine one of the few remaining respectable institutions.  If Biden would commit not to do that, it would likely secure my vote.
Keith Law: The GOP is packing the court right now. I’m not sure what your third party vote will do, though, other than maybe make you feel a bit better.

xxx(yyy): what have you cooked the most during COVID?
Keith Law: Because we joined a CSA in May, it has to be corn. I’ve never eaten so much corn in my life.

Tom: You were high on DiPoto and Eppler prior to their hires. Do you think the lack of progress for the Angels is a reflection on them or is it ultimately Moreno?
Keith Law: Moreno is clearly a large part of the problem.

Jason: Should a 15 year old really be trashing her family on TikTok even if the mom is morally bankrupt? (i.e. the Conways)
Keith Law: Why not? What’s the counterargument here?

xxx(yyy): how much would someone have to pay you to go cover the World Series in person? (no, seriously – I assume that’s the only way you go)
Keith Law: My answer would be a flat no. Not with fans there.

xxx(yyy): What is the biggest positive about working at The Athletic vs The Worldwide Leader?
Keith Law: There are many differences, but I was tired of ESPN’s obsession with social media.

That Guy in Detroit: Ian Anderson should start going by “Aqualung.”  And if he doesn’t, maybe the President* should
Keith Law: I don’t know what his warmup music is but I hope it’s Tull.

Fred: Please tell me the White Sox get rid of Renteria. He was in way over his head in the playoffs and coached the team into a loss. I cant recall seeing that many coaching blunders in one series, let alone an all or nothing game.
Keith Law: They could do better. I don’t think he’s a very good tactical manager. I don’t know what he’s like with individual players, but I do think he’s cost them some wins or at least some runs with in-game mistakes.

Joe: You mentioned in your video chat that the Angels should look at someone in the Yankees player development option for their new GM.  They did that the last time and that is why they are in the mess they are in.
Keith Law: If you don’t see that they are far better off today than they were when Eppler took over, I don’t know what to tell you. His tenure was a net positive. And had they signed Cole this past winter – which they tried to do, at least – I don’t think we’re having this conversation.

Bill: Dan Dickerson, the Tigers radio PBP man, does a great job of blending analytics into his broadcast. In the case of Willi Castro, he’s constantly bringing up how is BABIP is unsustainable despite his obvious talent.
Keith Law: That’s great to hear. Hats off to Dan.

Aaron Gershoff: In response to Kevin re: analytics and broadcasters: David Cone for the Yankees. He gets it. Hes a rarity though, for sure.
Keith Law: Yes, I can confirm this, and I wish they used him more.

Mark: I often have trouble getting pizza dough off the peel onto the stone without sticking. I’ve tried cornmeal and flour,it might just be my technique. I’ve read about making the pizza on parchment paper on top of the peel, putting i on the stone and then pulling the paper out after a few minutes and letting it cook on the stone.Have  you ever tried something like this ?
Keith Law: I’ve done that in the home oven. Couldn’t do it in the outdoor oven, since it’s too hot, but it works fine even at 500 degrees as long as you keep the paper fairly small. You also could just use more cornmeal/flour than you think you would possibly need.

TJ: Watching my beloved Detroit Tigers, I noticed that Daz Cameron struggled while trying to pull everything when he first came up but started to have more success (and make better contact) once he started going to right field. Is this indicative of Cameron’s minor league career or just SSS noise?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s an effective dead-pull hitter … he doesn’t have his dad’s power. He’ll be a good player if he sticks to using the whole field and tries to maximize his contact.

Matt: Are you concerned about Paddack?  I recall you’ve always said he needed a third pitch, but he seems to have regressed badly in the short season.
Keith Law: Still believe he needs a better breaking ball, but the short season is just a SSS for everyone and I’m not going to overreact to it.

Mac: Any thoughts of going to Ft Myers this weekend for the HS jamboree?
Keith Law: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Keith Law: no

Rob: Hi Keith.  Should the sale of the Mets go through, what are your thoughts on the state of the franchise/front office.  Any sense of how far behind/off-base the Wilpons were in what they were doing/neglecting.  We all know how terrible they were, but how big a job does Steve Cohen have on his hands after ~20 years of the Wilpons should he intend to right that ship.
Keith Law: This isn’t news, but they’ve drafted very well for many years now, and their biggest problems have been 1) some lack of development and 2) BVW trading those prospects away. Alonso, Smith, Conforto, now Peterson – all drafted by the Tanous/Tramuta group, who also drafted Kelenic, Dunn, Kay, and Woods-Richardson. To borrow a line from 2020 Mercury Prize winner Michael Kiwanuka, they ain’t the problem.
Keith Law: And that makes the Mets job a bit more appealing than the Angels. You have people and a process in place that you can leave alone, and thus focus on other needs.

Larry: do you still consider Dylan Cease a starter and if so what adjustments do you think he needs to make?
Keith Law: I do. His fastball is playing down from its velocity, and he should probably work more with offspeed stuff, and/or perhaps try something different like cutting the fastball occasionally so hitters don’t sit on it. It’s easy to just say “command,” and sure, he’d be better if he located it more effectively, but I think altering the pitch mix or tweaking its characteristics are more realistic.

Sam: A thought for any undecided voters out there.  Sometimes on close cases, Chief Justice Roberts will subvert his own preferences and vote with the majority, so as to create a 6-3 or 7-2 decision, because it’s better for the Supreme Court’s reputation not to have many 5-4 decisions.  I feel  like there’s a parallel in the election.  If either side narrowly wins, people are going to take to the streets and argue that the election was stolen — more so than most years.  It doesn’t seem like there’s much chance of a Trump landslide.  But you can do your part to create a Biden win by a safe margin, and avoid all the messiness/litigation/upheaval that might come from a tight election.  Our country doesn’t need all that right now.
Keith Law: Very reasonable points.

John: I know some people felt Williams should be in consideration for ROY.  Was his exclusion on your list from limited innings or more your preference for career potential or something else?
Keith Law: Hayes, Cronenworth, Bohm, and Gonsolin were all more valuable than he was in 2020. And on top of that, yes, he’s a pure reliever, with lower projected career value.

Jason: So the virus is no big deal? Says the guy with a army of the best doctors/medical facilities at his disposal, experimental antibody cocktails, remdesivir, steroids, etc. What a slap in the face to the average person.
Keith Law: A bigger slap in the face to everyone who’s lost someone to this no-big-deal virus, but yeah, I agree.

Moe Mentum: Do you have a “best catch you’ve ever seen” pat answer? Based on difficulty and/or circumstances?
Keith Law: On TV – I always think of Ken Griffey Sr robbing a HR in left field at Yankee Stadium where his torso was all higher than the wall. In person – not sure it was the best or just the most recent incredible play, but Odubel Herrera robbed a HR at CBP a few years ago, when I was there for Acuña’s second big-league series, that was incredible.

Guest: Phillies doesnt seem like a great job either. Zero prospects, need help all over the diamond except RF and an entirely new bullpen, and a mandate to win yesterday.
Keith Law: “Zero prospects” is false. Also, Bohm is clearly a keeper.

Bill: I thought the moderator did a poor job last night, but short of a kill switch I’m not sure I could have done any better.  How should a moderator handle a candidate whose aim is to bulldoze the proceedings.
Keith Law: The Republicans have decided to exploit this flaw in the system and the Democrats should either do the same thing – breaking the debates completely – or refuse to participate unless there’s an effective way to stop the interruption/exceeding time limits tactic.

Mets Fan: Hi “Don’t Pack the Court” John — if you’re concerned about court packing, you need to vote Democratic; otherwise, you’re rewarding McConnell for escalating and leaving future Democratic presidents really no choice. Biden may pack the court but he may not (and maybe he’ll come up with a better solution, e.g. a term limits amendment). But no future Democratic president will hesitate.
Keith Law: Exactly.

Jeff: Hey Undecided John: it’s called “expanding” the court and it has happened several times before and is completely and constitutionally legal. You’re falling for the Republican’ ploy by calling it “packing”
Keith Law: Also true.

Morris: How should I think about Madrigal? Hit 340 with no patience and no pop, thanks to that 365 BABIP, but if he’s not strong enough to hit for power, is he going to be able to maintain such a high BABIP?
Keith Law: He’s not. Nobody has done that in decades.

Joe: What are your thoughts on Will Smith’s bat going forward?
Keith Law: I’m in. He’s going to make several All-Star teams.

Jordan: Game you have most enjoyed watching this postseason?
Keith Law: The Padres/Cardinals game where San Diego came back from down 6-2 to win.

Todd: Can I trust the polls? Same thing happened in 2016
Keith Law: The Upshot at the New York Times shows what the results would be if current state polls are as far off as they were in 2016. As of last night, that still gave Biden 316 electoral votes, and thus the win.

Chris: It looks like the universal DH is here to stay. Most people say that they support it because they hate watching pitchers hit.  My issue with it has always been that I don’t like unathletic players that can’t play defense to be able to have a spot. Why should these players be given an out when they can’t play the entire game?
Keith Law: This is essentially the “appeal to nature” fallacy. “Playing the entire game” is an artificial construct. Who decided that you had to play the field to play the “entire game,” or that players who are exceptional at one thing (hitting or fielding) should not get playing time because they’re not good enough at the other of the two?

John Olerud: To echo everyone else, thanks for taking the time! Your insights on all matters baseball and otherwise are very appreciated, especially in the world of sports coverage which… well I don’t have to tell you how vapid it can be. Cheers!
Luis: Finally had a chance to get on time into one of you chats. Just wish everything is going well during this crazy times. thanks for the content, specially the baseball and boargames portions. Greetings from this little country of Guatemala
Keith Law: Thank you both and to those of you who’ve expressed similar sentiments here and elsewhere. I’ve been doing fewer chats this year because I haven’t been able to go out and see players as usual, or talk to scouts who are seeing players, and also because this year has been so exhausting – even with good things happening in my own life – that sometimes talking about innocuous matters feels frivolous. But I appreciate all of you who’ve stuck with me this year and reached out to check on me or just say thanks. I appreciate all of it. Stay safe, wear your masks, and please vote.

I have three new posts up for subscribers to The Athletic: a breakdown of the planned changes to the 2021 draft, a Q&A with Jen McCaffrey on the Red Sox’ farm system, and a scouting notebook (from Tuesday) on several top 100 prospects who debuted recently. I also have a new game review at Paste, looking at the Spiel-nominated Nova Luna, Uwe Rosenberg’s reboot of an earlier game called Habitats.

Keith Law: In the shuffling madness … Klawchat.

Ben (MN): How useful is this year’s data for evaluators like yourself? For example, Austin Meadows had an early case of covid and has been awful. Is that evidence that he was never as good as his numbers from last year, or can we just not tell at this point due to the small sample and the unknown impact of covid, lack of reps, etc.? For someone like Javy Baez, has his approach finally caught up with him and exposed him as a solid but not great player, or is it just a small sample and he may be a superstar again next year? Do you have any idea how to gauge this season for situations like this, where the data doesn’t confirm what we thought about the player before the year?
Keith Law: This entire season is a small, skewed sample. Not only is 60 games less than half a regular season, but schedules are far less balanced than they usually are, and we’re clearly working with less major-league caliber pitching than usual. If a player continues what he showed us in 2019, then great, it’s probably further evidence in that direction. If a player is having an outlier season in 2020, though, I’m not going to draw any conclusions either way.

Sedona: Gut feeling…Luciano take the Vlad/Soto early path to MLB?  If not, who?
Keith Law: No. Don’t think he has their idea of the strike zone.

2020 Voter: I read nearly all of your chats and in each one this year there’s a comment from someone that essentially says “how could anyone vote for Trump?” and I’d like to share my perspective.  Biden has proposed revisions to 401Ks that replaces the current taxable income reduction with flat credits.  This would greatly increase my taxes per year — despiate pledges to not raise taxes on households making <400K — and leaves our family with little extra.  Trump is a horrible embarassment, but that is a huge financial hit.  Democrats will likely control Congress, so the chances of this passing are high.  You’ll probably call this selfish, but I’m not especially political and I have young kids.
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s pretty selfish – and also extremely narrow. If the economy is worse off as a whole, what does that mean for your income, or the long-term value of your 401K? Trade wars and tariffs are terrible for the economy. So is a pandemic without a sufficient government response. Also, I’d wager a good amount of money that you’re a straight, white man, whose status isn’t particularly threatened by a Trump administration that is rolling back anti-discrimination protections for anybody who isn’t that.

Todd Boss: Given the 29-9 beatdown last night, would you support a little-league style “slaughter rule” in baseball games at some point?  We’re already experimenting with “weirder” rules (extra innings runner, 7-inning double headers, no-pitch IBB) that have existed in non-MLB leagues for a time … why not have a rolling slaughter rule; game’s over if losing by 10 or more runs 7th inning or later?
Keith Law: This year I would have.

Jason: Should Bob Woodward have released those taped conversations much earlier, is criticism of him fair?
Keith Law: Yes.

Adam: I admit to being very confused that The Burnt Orange Heresy wasn’t a documentary on the current administration.
Keith Law: It’s a great title for a good novel (I read it, it’s solid) and a bad film.

Jason: Is corbin burnes a GUY?
Keith Law: I think so. I was a year early on his breakout, as usual.

Matt: Do you believe in Austin Nola being a 120 wRC+ type bat in next couple of years or no?
Keith Law: I’d bet the under on that.

Ryan: Hey Keith love your work. What do you think an extension for Tatis looks like. Would 8 250 get it close. He could get another bite of the apple at age 29.
Keith Law: With four years of team control now, one of them essentially at the minimum salary, you’re still giving him $40 million or more for his free agent years. He should definitely take that offer.

Jon: Don’t look now but Michael Conforto is turning into a superstar.  (In my best John Malkovich voice – “Pay that man his money”)
Keith Law: Again, I don’t want to read much into the short season, but the OBP has always been there, and this is power he’s shown before when healthy. Funny how the Cubs fans who were mad I ranked him over Schwarber have gone silent.

Chuck: Any idea why Davidson or Muller don’t get at least a spot start for Atlanta?
Keith Law: I don’t know how prepared they are for that … we don’t know how much they’ve pitched, or if they’ve dealt with any minor injuries, anything like that. On the face of it I’d assume Davidson was in line, but I have no inside info here.

Mac: Have you heard how the fall league will be structured?
Keith Law: Nothing. Many ideas, no specifics.

Ken: Comparing the two who had more upside as a starter at age 22 for the yanks severing or Garcia?  Why?
Keith Law: Severino had the better arm, but I always had concerns about his delivery that unfortunately came to pass. Garcia has his own concerns but I think he’s a bit more likely to hold up as a starter.

Michael: Yesterday more than 1,200 Americans died. In Spain, Germany, Canada, Japan, Italy and the UK they lost a combined 75 even though they have 100 million more people than us.  #AmericanExceptionialism
Keith Law: Yeah, but Biden might raise my taxes a tiny bit.

Deke: Anything dumber (non-actually-important department) this year than Hosmer’s bunt and the aftermath?
Keith Law: Bunting with two strikes, even against the shift, is such a bad idea … if you are that unlikely to get a hit in that situation, you shouldn’t be in the lineup.

Jake: Keith—I’m a first time voter (just turned 18). I’m extremely progressive. As such, I obviously am not voting for trump. But I don’t know if i can betray my heart and vote joe. He has a brutal history, and won’t bring about meaningful change. How do i vote?
Keith Law: You vote for Biden. You have two choices here that matter. One might not bring about meaningful change from our history, but he will bring about meaningful change from the last four years. The other will get to keep appointing conservative judges, gutting environmental laws, killing LGBTQ+ protections, muzzling scientists, and mishandling crises. This isn’t hard. And it’s not only about you.

BirdlandBro: Hey Keith, your thoughts on the Orioles?  Do you see real positive strides being made and potentially an accelerated rebuild?  Or just small sample size?
Keith Law: Just a small sample size.

Bryan (Montclair): What do you think the impact will be on pitchers in 2021 based on this truncated season? Anecdotally, I would think that starters will have a longer time getting stretched out/pitching through a long 2021 season, at the very least. Not to mention an uptick in injuries.
Keith Law: I share your concern – and I think it’s the main reason we will see some sort of fall league, so minor leaguers who didn’t see the majors aren’t left with virtually no innings this year.

Cory: What’s the deal with Mize’s lack of command; wasn’t that supposed to be his biggest strength? Cause for concern?
Keith Law: Again, tiny samples.

Jordan: Do you see the Padres talent ever stacking up enough to overtake the dodgers for a division title? Or does LAs combination of cash and organizational acumen make SD a groomsmen for the next decade?
Keith Law: Some of it is just luck – you stay healthier one year, or you have a guy have an outlier year like Cronenworth – but I will say no large-market team would scare me more as a competitor than the Dodgers. They’re extremely strong at the major-league and minor-league levels, they keep finding high-end talent in the draft even when they draft low, and they’re exceptionally well-run.

BJ: Are you coming around on Mountcastle? All the guy does is hit. Even if the BB% boost is just a small sample, who cares? Why walk when you can rake?
Keith Law: Because when you don’t walk, pitchers tailor their approach and you don’t rake so much.

Larry: Whats your level of concern for Soroka’s future while coming back from the Achilles tear?
Keith Law: None.

Greg: Fried, Soroka, Anderson seem like logical pieces in the future Atlanta rotations. Any other internal guys who you think could figure it out and join them?
Keith Law: I would bet that one of that group of Wright, Wilson, Toussaint, Davidson would figure it out … but I am not really sure which one I’d bet on. Touki has the best arsenal, and all the athleticism in the world, and when he’s on – repeating his delivery especially – he’s the best of the quartet.
Keith Law: If he doesn’t figure it out in Atlanta, he’ll spend the next ten years going from team to team because every pitching coach will want to work with him. He could be the new Edwin Jackson.

Matt: 200K dead Americans but 2020 Voter is concerned about his 401. That’s nice.
Keith Law: I wonder if questions like that are just bait.

Adam: Is it odd that the Padres, for all their drafting and IFA prowess, have a roster comprised of only maybe 2 “homegrown” players, depending on your definition of the term?
Keith Law: They’ve used a lot of homegrown players to acquire guys on the roster. Also, you’re probably not counting Tatis Jr. as homegrown, since he originally signed with another club, but he never played an official game with any other org but the Padres.

James: Do you agree with Kershaw that the extra-inning rule is “not real baseball”?
Keith Law: It’s not my kind of baseball.

Steven: If Bart can hit .250+, is he an all star?
Keith Law: What’s his OBP in that scenario?

Matthew: All the beat writers seem to think Cleveland will decline Hand and Santana’s options and trade Lindor in a massive salary clearance this offseason. With Carrasco set to achieve 10-and-5 next May or so, I’d imagine they’ll also be eager to move his salary while they still can, without his approval. What do you think his trade value is like? Definitely a unique case.
Keith Law: I would bet it’s high. People seem to love Carrasco the person, and obviously he’s a top-end pitcher. I think they’d do very well if they trade him – multiple real prospects in return.

Guest: Would you bring up brailen marquez for the last bit of this year if you were jed/theo?
Keith Law: Assuming he’s ready & healthy, he’d be a hell of a weapon in relief.

Jon: It looks like Andres Gimenez has overtaken Rosario at SS, at least for the rest of the season.  If you’re the Mets, what do you do with Rosario next year?  Try him in CF, trade him or see if he can still become what a lot of people thought he could be?
Keith Law: My guess is they’ll end up trading him. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him succeed somewhere else.

zeke: Do you think the anti-Military comments and COVID disclosures re “Clown Hitler” move the needle at all?
Keith Law: You would think so … how any veteran or military family could hand-wave this away is beyond me.

Brian: Do you think some players perform better because of not having fans? Thinking specifically of Darvish.
Keith Law: No.

Appa Yip Yip: Are you buying Teoscar Hernandez? His good run started last year.
Keith Law: Another 2019 breakout candidate. More buying than selling, I would say, but again, 2020 is a tiny sample and I would not extrapolate any player having a strong but outlier six weeks into him doing it for a whole year.

Brian: Ian Happ is another breakout you jumped the gun on. Great power and OBP mix. Think he can be a regular All-Star?
Keith Law: I do – he was one of my bigger breakout disappointments because I was always pretty confident he’d be a strong OBP/doubles guy at the worst while playing a few positions.

Johnny Tuttle: Why did Libertarianism take such virulent root in the US?
Keith Law: Isn’t it innate? One of the original 13 states has “Live Free or Die” as its motto.

Greg P: Isn’t it scary to think 45% of Americans will vote for Trump?
Keith Law: 45% of voters will. Not the same thing. The problem is all the people who don’t vote, many of whom will see their quality of life affected quite directly by the outcome.

Adam Trask: You still think Hinch gets hired again but not Luhnow? Hinch knew about it and couldn’t control his team. Luhnow may not have known and got screwed. And he seems to have interest from the A-Rod group at least.
Keith Law: Luhnow knew. Let’s not revise history here.

Guest: Awesome to hear you’re running. Interesting to know you can do something you never thought possible. In that sense, do you have any hope that we’ll see substantial progress in climate change in our lifetime?
Keith Law: I think we will in my daughter’s lifetime, but by then it may be far too late.

Tracy: If this current administration is defeated this fall, should the Biden admin go after any of the obvious lawbreakers who’ve run amok the last four years? I’d hate to see them literally get away with murder because the new administration would deem it “ not worth it.” Sends a bad message that there are indeed two separate sets of laws that are enforced.

Keith Law: Yes. Lock them up.

Mike Trout: Another Mets SSS but gosh Dom Smith. I know you were always high on him – how good can he be?
Keith Law: He started this last year in limited time, so I’m more inclined to believe it – but I’ve also always been a believer. Funny how much grief he got after 1 HR in his first season in full-season ball. Since the start of 2019, he’s played 125 games and hit 18 homers with a .301/.371/.572 line, and he’s hitting lefties too. That’ll play.

OZ: For the guy who is going to vote Trump because of Biden’s 401K plan:  the 401K tax deduction is highly regressive, it gives a larger tax break to those with higher incomes (higher tax brackets) while providing a limited benefit to low and middle class savers.  Moving to a flat credit will provide a larger break and more incentive for middle class families.  If your taxes are raised by this plan its because you have a large income and can afford it.  However its unlikely to make much of a difference since Roth IRAs are taxed differently than 401Ks so savers can easily switch to contributing to a Roth IRA instead.
Keith Law: Well, there you go. I have voted for years in direct opposition to my own interests when it comes to tax rates, because 1) there is no reason on earth I need a tax break and 2) I am at least vaguely aware that there are other people on this planet besides me.

John: Do you think Derek fisher will have a teoscar style breakout? They share some (possibly superficial) similarities. Also, do you believe in teoscar’s breakout?
Keith Law: Fisher’s really interesting because his tools – plus power, 70 run – have long outstripped his production, and there hasn’t been a great reason why. It’s been true in the field and at the plate since he was at UVA. His 34 PA this year don’t tell us anything at all, but he’d at least be someone to watch if you are looking on the Jays roster for a player with the physical tools to be the sort of found money that Teoscar has been.

Kevin: Is trent grisham a center fielder now? A lot of people felt he couldn’t succeed there before this season.
Keith Law: I’d be shocked if he was able to play above-average defense in CF for a whole year.

Nolan: have any of these “I’m a leftist how could I possibly vote for Biden?” people ever heard of the Supreme Court? Noticed how many times RBG has been hospitalized recently?
Keith Law: The Supreme Court is where they play tennis at their local country clubs.

Ron: What would you say to disaffected leftists who see both Biden and Trump as horrendous candidates whose parties both actively stifle progressive policies? How long do we have to keep voting for the lesser of two-evils while deluding ourselves that next election will be different?
Keith Law: See all the answers above, and maybe consider the privilege in your self-definition as a “disaffected leftist” instead of someone whose livelihood or even existence is threatened by four more years of this shit.

Sedona: Is Domingo German a lock for the rotation next year?  Tanaka, Paxton, Happ should be FA’s.  Do you think Schmidt, Devei and Severino say otherwise?
Keith Law: I don’t think German or Severino are rotation locks for 2021.

Steven: I would say Bart’s OBP would have to be .340
Keith Law: If he does that, with his power and defense, he’s a star. But I’m not sure he gets there unless he continues to be a HBP magnet.

Dave: Whether or not it’s actually indicative, it’s clearly a small (and unreliable) sample size. That being said, does Bobby Dalbec have the  potential to be a big league regular?
Keith Law: I think he has a fringe regular ceiling but will likely be a good bench player.

Chamaco: The Athletic is running a special – $1 a month for 6 months.  Will that allow me to read everything you have written since starting there?
Keith Law: Yes. I don’t think it’s limited in any way.

Jason: Do you think josh lindblom could be good in relief? he clearly isnt cut for starting in MLB
Keith Law: Yes.

Luis Robert: Luis Robert is walking almost twice as often as he did in AAA. Is this SSS noise, or a positive step?
Keith Law: Everything. In. 2020. Is. A. Small. Sample.
Keith Law: If this were a regular season we wouldn’t even be at Memorial Day.

Chamaco: Any good reason why scouts can’t attend MLB games or alt. sites? Seems like there is enough room to socially distance even with players in the stands.
Keith Law: Certain owners didn’t want to spend the money to send scouts out to games, so they pushed for MLB to just ban them all.

Mike: Klaw, if Steve Cohen hired you to run the Mets, what are the top things you would tell him that needs to be done? Would you even have interest in a front office position?
Keith Law: I would actually leave a lot of people in place. They’ve drafted really well, and you’re seeing more of that this year and last year with Smith’s emergence, Conforto, Alonso, and perhaps Peterson (he should be better than this, the BB% is surprising). Their development on the pitching side has improved. Their two biggest problems have been injuries and major-league transactions.

Nelson: It’s a small sample obviously, but Braves fans have been cautiously optimistic about Austin Riley’s approach at the plate improving. Have you seen much of him this year? Quality of ABs seems vastly improved to my eyes, especially on the last month.
Keith Law: Tiny sample. And they’ve faced a lot of bad pitching in that span.

Tim KC: Hey Keith…I am afraid that all the rule changes for this experimental year is going convince Manfred to negotiate to keep changes and push for further (bad) changes next CBA negotiations (and greater possibility of strike/lock out).  (Only pro-universal DH.). Can you talk me off the ledge or is it legit concerns?
Keith Law: The union has to agree to all of it. Universal DH is a lock. Don’t see the union agreeing to many other things like 7-inning games, which would reduce the need for so many relievers.

Appa Yip Yip: Libertarianism in America also has to be put into the context of having one political party that does everything it can to make the state inept. Freedom from government interference makes a lot more sense when your government is constantly being kneecapped by the people responsible for running it.
Keith Law: Not unreasonable. Although I think there’s such a strong cultural “don’t tell me what to do” mentality here that overruns any sense of “I should care about others” that you might expect from a nation that so often likes to refer to itself as a Christian one.

Maddy: Looking at 2021 Prospect Rankings, how are you going to go about not getting a traditional season-long look at prospects? How many changes are we realistically going to see?
Keith Law: We’ll have a lot of graduations, the addition of this year’s draft, and possibly some stuff from fall baseball. That’ll make for fewer changes than in a normal year, and I’m assuming my team by team writeups will be shorter as a result of guys not playing, but there will at least be sufficient changes to make the top 100 pretty fresh.

Brent: Dylan Cease has been productive getting guys out without a high K-rate. Do you see that continuing or will he have to miss more bats to continue the success?
Keith Law: I think he needs a higher K rate, but I also think his K rate will improve.
Keith Law: Secondary stuff has shown at least flashes of being good enough to miss more bats.

Greg: Obviously small sample, but is Plesac a mid rotation guy long term?
Keith Law: Yeah, I’m buying that.

Mike Trout: I read “you’re running” as in running for office. Law 2024!
Keith Law: I don’t need to run – we’ve got progressive candidates running all over the place here in Delaware. I voted in our primary for Kyle Evans Gay, a progressive running to flip our State Senate seat (it’s been red for over 20 years); and Jess Scarane, the progressive candidate running against incumbent Senator Chris Coons. I also donated to help other progressive candidates for our state legislature, including Sarah McBride, Debbie Harrington, and Stephanie Barry.

Jason: Would the US Postal Service be in better shape if it wasn’t forced to prefund its retirees’ health benefits 75 years into the future or do they need to radically change the organization?
Keith Law: Pretty sure it’s the former.

Johnny Tuttle: I was exhilarated when players walked off the fields/courts/rinks. We need more of this leadership.

PS: Why do white people revere Jackie and MLK decades afterwards but hate LeBron now? Hang on, I think I’ve figured it out on my own.
Keith Law: Yep. Much easier to laud these guys well after the fact.

Kevin: Will the Mariners call up Taylor Trammell for some time this year? Would you? A Trammell/Kelenic/J-Rod outfield looks mightyyyyy nice in theory.
Keith Law: I would call Trammell and Kelenic up now, since it’s not like they’d be taking time away from anyone important for their futures.

Joe: What are your thoughts about contracting MILB teams? As a fan and taxpayer that built a new stadium for a team being eliminated, I’m irritated that rich MLB can’t afford to support these teams.
Keith Law: I have mixed feelings on this. Some markets just didn’t support their teams, and were more headaches for their parent clubs (due to travel, facilities, etc.) than anything else. The Appalachian League will barely be missed – nobody went to most of those games. And MLB should have more say in where MiLB franchises are located, for the convenience of moving players around, and to manage the reach of the game into better or larger markets. That said, eliminating all of short-season baseball is a terrible player development move, a penny wise and pound foolish decision that reduces jobs in baseball for players and staff alike.

Tracy: All this talk of uniting this country might backfire on the next administration. There will still be a large faction who will oppose any attempts that may help “them” (non-white people). Same reasons Biden should forget about “bi-partisanship.” It’s not going to happen. Do not waste time like Obama did. You get screwed in the end.
Keith Law: I read Ben Rhodes’ book The World As It Is, about his time in the Obama White House, and while I don’t think this was his intended message, it was the one I took away. You can’t work with people who don’t intend to work with you. Negotiating with someone who consistently acts in bad faith is far different from negotiating with someone who acts in good faith. You need a different strategy and different tactics.

Chaz: Have seen a few ups and many downs from Evan White this season. Obviously didn’t have the most experience heading into the season, but will he figure it out? Seems like a velocity problem ie: he can’t hit the hard stuff.
Keith Law: That was my take too. If you can’t hit velocity, this is not the sport for you.

The Ghost in Texas: What kind of prospect was kiner-falefa. SSS but the guy looks like he belongs has he changed anything to allow himself to be more productive than expected? And is he a starter on a winning club? (Not currently of course bc Tex is awful)
Keith Law: He didn’t start catching until he was 21, in his fourth season in pro ball, and without that he wasn’t really a prospect at all. Less than two years later, he was in the majors, so his window to appear on anyone’s lists was very short. This year is the first time (so far) he’s slugged .400+ at any stop at all, and it’s just because his BABIP has jumped 57 points. So, he wasn’t a prospect until he could catch, and his 2020 line looks like a pretty serious outlier at the plate. However, a C-IF like him has value if he can just get on base like IKF has, so I think he’s a useful player on a winning club, but not a starter.

kc: although it’s a weird season, pretty excited for the future of baseball with some of these young players
Keith Law: I am too.

Matthew: I’ve been reading these chats for too long because I remember when all the Cubs fans would come and disparage you for saying Junior Lake wasn’t a star when he was good for like 3 weeks one time.
Keith Law: Never forget. Junior Lake and Brett Jackson belong on some sort of All-Star Klaw Hates My Team’s Prospects roster.

Leftist: Your responses to leftists are emblematic of the Democratic Party’s inevitable downfall. Instead of attempting to reach out and expand the net of potential voters, you mock, ridicule, and use inconsistent logic (such as implying that Biden, who was instrumental in appointing Scalia and Thomas, has a clean record with SCOTUS). Instead of dismissing an entire movement as “privileged”, maybe consider that some of us are actually marginalized BIPOC and just don’t trust someone with as horrible a record as Biden.
Keith Law: I never implied Biden has a clean record with SCOTUS; that’s your inference, and a bad-faith one at that. I implied that I’d prefer Biden’s choice for SCOTUS, especially if it comes with a Democrat-controlled Senate, to Trump’s choice. We have clear data on the type of justice Trump would nominate, but those examples you give for Biden came 20+ years ago and were not his nominees. If you think that, as President, Biden is going to nominate the next Antonin Scalia, I’m not sure we can have a rational discussion on the subject.

JJ: Watched the Red Sox game with my dad the other night, and after a Bobby Dalbec strkeout, I casually mentioned to Dad that the Sox picked Dalbec one pick before Shane Bieber was chosen.  My dad went nuts, saying that Dave Dombrowski was an idiot who ruined the Red Sox.  My question:  at that point in the draft (4th round) do GMs have any idea of who they’re picking, or is it a 100% scouting director decision?
Keith Law: Scouting director decision – but also, Bieber wasn’t throwing anywhere near this hard when in college.

2022: Do you foresee a work stoppage in 2022? Starting to think the 2021 season might be the only full year we get until 2023 (and even 2021 could be impacted by COVID).
Keith Law: It’s a real concern, although I wonder if players would approach the talks differently after losing more than half of this season, and look for more guaranteed money even if it cuts off long-term upside. (Not saying that should be their strategy, just that it might be.)

Lyle: SSS and all but have you seen enough from Kyle Lewis to believe that he’s an everyday OF going forward?
Keith Law: SSS – and Lewis hasn’t had a huge run of health since college, either. I’m not rooting against him, but if you’re DiPoto, you have to consider that when planning the future of your roster. (Maybe that means Lewis ends up taking DH time to keep him playing, eventually.)

The Ghost in Texas: In normal times Spring Training would be going strong 6 months from now. What do u think the chances are ST 2021 will look anything similar to previous seasons. As someone that travels to Phoenix each year for a great weekend I beg u to not make me cry.
Keith Law: I would guess we get spring training but if we don’t have a vaccine it might be without fans, or with very few fans.

Nate: Hearing of any prospects at satellite sites that have made big jumps this year?
Keith Law: Yes, but I don’t take any of it seriously until they show it in games. Any team can claim their prospects look great when nobody else can watch them.

Jason: Is devin williams a future closer?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jason: As an author, where do you want to see most of your readers get your book: Amazon vs. supporting a local bookstore, ebook vs print vs audiobook or you don’t have a preference?
Keith Law: My incentives are all over the place. The more you pay for the book, the more I get in royalties against my advance, although it’s a small amount on any one book. But I also want more people to read my books, since it was so much work to write them. And I also want to be sure independent bookstores continue to exist, as I enjoy them so much as a consumer, and I believe they contribute to diversity in what gets published. So … buy my books wherever you want, in whatever format you want, and I will be grateful.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks for reading and for all of your questions, as always. Stay safe, wear your masks, and make sure you’re registered to vote!

My latest post for subscribers to the Athletic looks at the debuts from Triston McKenzie, Sixto Sanchez, Wil Crowe, and Joey Bart. I reviewed the new tile-laying and set collection board game Succulent for Paste.

Keith Law: Let us have peace, let us have life. Klawchat.

Guest: Have you had a chance to see Tony Gonsolin throw this season? Has his new knuckle-change elevated his ceiling at all?
Keith Law: Yes. He has only thrown 16 of those knuckle-curves and has no ability to command the pitch at all right now. I don’t think it’ll make any difference until and unless that changes.

Ken: Buehler to the DL and the Dodger don’t call up Tony Gonsolin? Seems odd.
Keith Law: He threw on Monday at the alternate site. He wouldn’t be available to pitch tonight or tomorrow.
Keith Law: That was what I guessed even before a quick Twitter search confirmed it.

Henry: What’s your long-term thoughts on Ian Anderson? I was impressed yesterday.
Mark: The Athletic was kicking around White Sox trade proposals for Lance Lynn, including cashing out Reynaldo Lopez or Dylan Cease for Lynn. Based on what you have seen so far from Cease’s starts and his years of control, would you make that trade if you were Hahn?
Keith Law: Yes, I would. Not sure Lopez has any trade value right now, though.

Gus: Has Corbin Burnes returned to where you thought he would be (before last year’s disaster)?
Keith Law: Not yet. He’s still throwing fewer strikes than I expected. Stuff is there, and whatever the issue was last year – mechanics or just tipping pitches – it mostly seems to be resolved.

Nate (Seattle): What can be done to reduce K% & increase BIP%?
Keith Law: Raise the bottom of the strike zone. I think an automated zone will result in fewer called strikes anyway, although the tradeoff there might be fewer swings in total.

Chuck: Who is the best Royals pitching prospect:  Lynch or Asa
Keith Law: Lynch.

WhiteSoxAndy: Obviously we had last season as well, but I’m gonna reiterate you were right to believe in Lucas Giolito!
Keith Law: That can’t be right. The internet told me I’m never right about anything and I suck at my job.

Greg: Does Atlanta have a pitching development problem? How can guys with the quality of stuff that Touki, Wright, Bryse Wilson, Newcomb have somehow be unable to even be a backend starter so far?
Keith Law: (Points at Max Fried)

Patty O’Furniture: So, Ian Anderson looked pretty dang good eh?
Keith Law: He looked good, but not great. His breaking ball wasn’t very good, with very short break for its velocity, and I don’t think any of his pitches was really plus. He showed good command and I love how he pitched. The individual pitches were a little lighter than I’d hoped, though.

Kelly: Your guess on the name(s) or prospect rank of the PTBNL in the Walker trade to Jays?
Keith Law: Might just be cash considerations. He’s a free agent in a month. I honestly don’t know what they discussed though.

Matthew: With Triston McKenzie rising from the ashes after 2 injury-plagued seasons, any chance Franklin Perez follows suit?
Keith Law: Perez’s injuries have been more serious.

Blake: I feel kind of conflicted about my team’s choice not to sit out last night’s game. One one hand, I feel a bit disappointed they didn’t feel empowered enough to take a stand. On the other, who am I to expect them to refuse to do their job to make a statement? I guess this isn’t a question, but curious if you have any thoughts
Keith Law: I was disappointed that other Cubs and Cardinals players chose to play when Black teammates of theirs chose to sit out.

David: Hey Keith, I know it’s probably close to impossible for you to upgrade/downgrade your opinion on a player at an alternate site, especially after Britt Ghiroli’s excellent piece on how scouts aren’t allowed at those sites, but is there reason to be encouraged about Jarren Duran? Alex Speier wrote about his swing change and he seems to have unlocked power in his swing. Or is that something you would need to see a player show at a hopeful [insert state name] Fall League?
Keith Law: He has truly changed his swing, and I think it will lead to more power, but I wouldn’t treat what I have heard about it the same way I would treat information from live games.
Keith Law: He’s a better prospect now than he was six months ago. That doesn’t equate to the same kind of jump in status or ranking we might get in a normal year, where he’d get to prove it against actual pitching.

Aaron Gershoff: Can Justin Dunn (of Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano fame) be a solid starter now or does he need more time?
Keith Law: He’s averaging 91.0 on his fastball. That’s not going to get it … dunn.

Michael: When scouting short players, is there any way to project power like Altuve, Eaton, Pedroia, etc or do most scouts see those types of players as “spark plug” Eckstein type guys?
Keith Law: I’d look at their swings and their lower body strength. Pedroia’s issues were that he wasn’t that strong as a prospect – if you can find video of the September when he debuted, his body looked bad – and most scouts, myself included, thought his swing was too uphill.
Keith Law: He improved his body a ton, and he made that swing work for him with exceptional hand-eye.

Josh: With the Walker trade do you think the Mariners give Logan Gilbert a shot at a few starts or give that 6th rotation spot to the bullpen?
Keith Law: I’d give Gilbert the spot. He was pretty close to ready after last season anyway.

JT: Will MLB finish its season, or can we expect a boycott for racial justice?

I *love* this so much. My introduction to social justice was reading about the death threats mailed to Hank Aaron when I was 9 or 10. Baseball taught me to be a better, more caring person. I love that it could do so again.
Keith Law: My guess is that the wildcat strikes we’re seeing in other leagues won’t come to MLB. The league and its players as a whole are too conservative.
Keith Law: Meaning a full-season strike – I wasn’t talking about individual games.

Drew: Love the scouting articles. With respect to Triston McKenzie, you had him ranked high as 19. Can you ballpark where he’d fall if you set the rankings again? And what’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: That guy we saw on Saturday would be back in the top 20 again. He might be an ace.

Soto Popinski: Thanks for continuing to speak out during these times. I can’t say it eliminates the dread of the next few months but at least there’s not any resignation
Keith Law: We fight, or we surrender. I don’t see another choice.

Henry: You published but didn’t answer my Ian Anderson question above? Thanks.
Keith Law: I did answer the same q later – the software swallowed your question so I answered someone else’s.

cool guy: what did scouts miss about cavan biggio?
Keith Law: Nothing. This season so far is such a tiny sample that there are weird outlier results all over the place – unless you think Mike Trout is really a .333 OBP guy.

Reds Fan: How much do you buy the mechanical changes Jose Garcia has made over the past year? If you were ranking again, do you feel he would be higher or lower than 93?
Keith Law: No change. I thought 93 was appropriate, if on the optimistic side.

Robert: Adell looks far from ready for the majors, especially in the field. Would you hold him back after watching him this season to preserve his confidence, or is this just something he has to get through with no minor leagues?
Keith Law: I might start to play him more selectively to get him at bats against pitchers he might be better able to see or hit right now. He doesn’t look ready, unfortunately.

Matt: What are your thoughts on Connor Seabold?  Would developing a better breaking ball to add to FB and change allow him to become a mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: I mean, “developing a better breaking ball” is not a minor tweak. He’s a fifth starter/swingman type. I didn’t have any problem with the phillies’ end of that trade.

Jonathan: What’s wrong with Pete Alonso this season? Alternatively, was 2019 a mirage for him?
Keith Law: How about something in between? He might never hit 53 homers again – especially since the baseball seems to be a little less happy-fun than last year – but he’s not a .402 SLG guy. To return to my small-sample point above, Biggio has more homers this year than Alonso. Do we really think Biggio is the better power hitter?

Nelson: Has anybody ever had the velocity of DeGrom with his level of command?
Keith Law: Scherzer?

Steven: Who do you prefer going forward, Luis Urias or Luis Garcia (Nats)?
Keith Law: Urias.

Noah: Max Fried has been pitching like an Ace. Can he keep this level up or will he fall into a #2/3 type starter when the sample size is bigger?
Keith Law: With that stuff, athleticism, and command, I think he can be a top 20 starter in baseball for the long term.

Steven: Was Fried, Giolito and Flaherty the best high school rotation ever?
Keith Law: I can’t think of a better one.

Jameson: A few of your Athletic co-writers put together a piece on the emergence of Yaz this year as a “super star” (their words not mine). Do you share a believe in this premise or are us Giants fans still going to see a regression?
Keith Law: I do not believe he’s a super star, or a star.

Neal: Thoughts on Luis Robert from what you’ve seen thus far?
Keith Law: Pretty much what I expected – big tools, especially the power, great defense, lot of swing and miss with vulnerability inside.
Keith Law: Great player, with flaws.

Tim: Does Zack Collins have a MLB future? Seems like there is no room for him in Chicago.
Keith Law: Last guy on the bench, sure. Emergency catcher, DH/PH with patience and power, there’s some value there.

Greg: I guess I’ll ask it another way. You’ve long been the high man on Touki and Bryse Wilson. Why hasn’t Atlanta been able to get more out of them?
Keith Law: Wilson is still just 22, and he got to the majors very early. I am quite high on him. Touki has shown flashes of it, but I think he still doesn’t have the consistency to his delivery, especially his arm swing, to repeat it 80-100 times every fifth day yet. I don’t know why, exactly; is it body control, or just that his arm is so fast/loose, or something else? Newcomb you mentioned above, and I don’t think he’ll ever repeat his arm stroke enough to throw strikes. He’s so loose that there isn’t really an easy way to fix it to improve the path of his arm or how close he gets to the same release point. He’s always going to be wild, unfortunately.

Scherzers_Blue_Eye: Victor Robles’ offense is another Giolito situation, right? Just be patient?
Keith Law: I’d say yes.

Kamal: At this point is looks like the NL Rookie of the Year is Cronenworth’s to lose. Was he a legit prospect in Rays system and do you see this as sustainable?
Keith Law: That’s a ridiculous statement on a player with less than 100 PA (and with a .375 BABIP, which is clearly not sustainable). I like Cronenworth a bit, but in a normal season nobody would speak about a sample of 87 PA as if it were meaningful. Just among rookies currently playing, I’d probably bet on Bohm or even Carlson to be better the rest of this mini-season.

Morris: I get why the Giants feel they need to disassociate from Aubrey Huff. But if they want to do that, how can they justify honoring Will Clark and retiring his number? This is a well known racist from who called Chris Brown the N-word in public, never apologized (and still hasn’t), had his white manager (Roger Craig) explain his actions and racism away, and had the team quickly ship away the black players (Brown, Jeffrey Leonard) who were bothered by his bigotry. Why two different standards for two terrible people?
Keith Law: That’s a great question, and whenever they trot him out in front of the press, someone needs to ask him point-blank about it.

Nick: Dominic Smith has been outstanding this season.  If you were running the Mets, what would you do with him going into 2021?
Keith Law: If the DH is permanent in the NL, as it will be sooner or later, he should be their 1B full-time, with Alonso the DH.

Guest: I know you are always pro-player (as am I), how would you have felt (in Clev’s case) / do feel (Pleasac) about keeping them down long enough to delay FA by a year as punishment, given how egregious their behavior was?
Keith Law: I would have been fine if the team or MLB had suspended them the rest of the year for putting their entire clubhouse at risk through deliberately reckless actions. I am pro-player. I am not pro-asshole.

TP: SSS or is this the Dom Smith you have been waiting for?
Keith Law: It’s SSS, but I am at least pleased that the Smith we’re seeing matches the guy I expected him to be. He just has to do it for a longer period before I can confidently say yes, this is him.

Mac: Do you think there will be a fall league this year?
Keith Law: It sounds like it.

Brian: Maybe I read it wrong but I thought I saw an article where Fowler and Flaherty ok’d the Cardinals playing. Which if that is the case does that change your mind saying they are doing what their teammates thought was ok.
Keith Law: No, it doesn’t, especially because we don’t really know what that sounded like – or whether they felt pressured to absolve their teammates of any obligation to sit out with them.

Joe: Pretty sure I saw that the Reds broadcast of the Royals game on August 19 suddenly isn’t available on the MLB.tv archive… I wonder why?! It’s one thing to erase it but it did happen…
Keith Law: Maybe just edit out Brennaman’s slur, but leave the apology?

Cam: Should Whitley’s injury issues be concerning at this point? Doesn’t seem like he could even have a shot at the MLB for another couple years.
Keith Law: Another couple of years? If he’s really just out with a forearm strain, as the Astros have said, why couldn’t he compete for a job in February? His last eighteen months have been a hot mess but there’s also nothing here to point to him being unable to pitch in the long term.

Jim: Do you see anything that might have Jays fans optimistic in the Taijuan walker acquisition? His career numbers (although small sample size) are not that good against AL east teams.
Keith Law: I love the arm and the athleticism. For what I assume is minimal cost, he’s a great pickup. I do worry about his homer-prone tendencies and the park in Buffalo, which seems to be very favorable to LH power hitters.

Dylan: What caused the White Sox to give up Luis Basabe?
Keith Law: Been hurt a lot, body has been slowing down, and no place to play in their system.

Carson Fulmer: What happened to me?
Keith Law: Violent deliveries often have bad outcomes. I never believed he was a starter, and maybe all the time he spent trying to be one ended up reducing his odds of being an effective reliever, either through wear on his arm or the mental toll of trying to do something he couldn’t?

Uli Jon: Observation I’ve had at a sadly late point of my life.  Black friends always have literature regarding the history and figures around what it means to be black in America.  I think the problem is that whites in America do no such self-reflection, either personally or in school. Look to Germany, which kinda sorta had a horrid history but has reckoned with it on a national level.  I’m a 50ish straight while male.  My ancestors were not here until the 20th century, but I 100% have profited from the ways in which this country has continually tilted towards me.  I have to recognize my culpability and ensure it stops. Now.
Keith Law: Well said. And, as someone who reads a ton, I agree that the American canon doesn’t have much to offer the privileged class (to which I also belong) that would force us to rethink our positions and/or encourage us to actively seek and push change.

Michael: Not a boycott, withholdinig labor is a strike.
Keith Law: I believe I said that too.

Mac: Thoughts on Brady Singer?
Keith Law: I love how he competes, but his results so far haven’t been great, and that’s even with some good luck against LHB (for whom he doesn’t really have an effective weapon).

Mark: Thoughts on Julian Merryweather? He’s looked great in small busts, think he can hold up as a starter or is he more of a high leverage multi-inning reliever upside?
Keith Law: The latter. Did throw hard as a starter, but didn’t have much else to support that role.

JT: Am I wrong to think of all unwritten baseball rules as just white supremacy in action? Fernando Tatis cannot help being better than everyone. He simply is. Behold.
Keith Law: I believe unwritten rules exist to enforce traditional power structures. Ever play any of those card games (often drinking games, at least in college) where new players don’t know the rules, and the existing players get to make them up as they go along without having to tell the newbies? If you have, think of how they allowed you to arbitrarily target or favor certain friends or other players. I know that’s a frivolous example, but I think the analogy still works: The beauty of unwritten rules for the powerful is that such rules can be applied however they want, whenever they want, to whomever they want – or ignored as the enforcer chooses.
Keith Law: Also, Tatis Jr. is a fucking star and should be allowed to swing 3-0 and run like his hair’s on fire and make every highlight reel he can, because MLB is far better off when players like him and Javy Baez and Francisco Lindor and Yu Darvish and Luis Robert are doing amazing things on the field.

Brian: Can baseball erase Aubrey Huff from the record books permanently?
Keith Law: The less we pay attention to him, the sooner he’ll go away.

Kas from Fort Worth: What does Leodys need to hit to be considered a legitimate starting starting CF with the defense he brings
Keith Law: Not much, really. And I think he can get to a .340+ OBP which would make him a regular.

Cal: Is Gavin lux finally out of the dog house?
Keith Law: I assume he’ll be called up in the next few days, although I wonder where he’ll end up getting AB.

David Fletcher: What do you see as the biggest cause for the Angels failure this season? What would you do to improve the team going forward?
Keith Law: Lack of starting pitching. They did make a run at Cole and didn’t get him; that was the free agent who’d make the biggest impact on their season and playoff odds.

Amir: James Kaprelian maintained 95-97 mph during his brief MLB appearance. If he can maintain the velocity, can he become a useful bullpen arm?
Keith Law: Yes. All about health with him, I think.

Chris: Do you have issues with Boston’s side of the Workman trade? They sure didn’t get anything to even go into their system. Doesn’t seem to bode well for additional trades Bloom makes in the next few days.
Keith Law: Is anyone really giving up significant prospects in trades for rentals or relief pieces this year? You’re getting a month of the regular season, and half the league gets into the playoffs anyway, so most real contenders would likely see those additions as “nice but not essential.” And there’s still the specter of more outbreaks causing a premature end to the season.

Zach: Keith, covid has gotten me back into playing video games for the first time in a long time. I dusted off my copy of Baldur’s Gate 2 since they are finally releasing BG3 this winter. You played them back in the day, right? Any desire to play #3?
Keith Law: I played through BG, BG2, and BG2: ToB many times. It’s the best video game I’ve ever played. I would be doing myself a grave disservice if I didn’t check out BG3.

Ryan: Will Dylan Carlson develop into a DUDE?
Keith Law: Yes. I think his approach will get him there, if not this year, soon.

Michael: DeGrom was a 9th rounder out of Stetson. Is baseball really that much of a late bloomer sport that a guy picked in an organizational round can become one of the best pitchers ever?  Seems to happen a lot
Keith Law: Not quite an organizational round, although you are correct that the expected value of a 9th round pick is nearly zero. Degrom is an unusual case, though; he was a converted position player who’d already had TJ.
Keith Law: I see him as a reason to keep the draft to at least 12-15 rounds, and why teams that choose to keep their scouts (as opposed to all the firings and furloughs, so billionaire owners can boost their profits for 2020 by a rounding error) will have a real advantage going forward.

JR: In general, are you enjoying the season so far? I thought having sports back would be a nice diversion (I know you’re a baseball only guy, but I enjoy the various leagues), but it just hasn’t been for me. I’m guessing it’s a mix of getting used to not having sports in my life + even though they’re back, they don’t feel the same. Watching with no fans in the stands, social distancing, etc. (which is the right thing to do) makes it a constant reminder of how fucked up things remain instead of the diversion we hoped sports would be, IMO.
Keith Law: I am enjoying it, but I went into the season knowing what it was, and figuring that whatever we got from MLB this year was a bonus.

Frank N.: When will you admit the Biggio take was just plain bad? You’re very quick to let everyone know the wins of your evals, but quiet on what you missed on…and missed on big time.
Keith Law: I have posted a column every year listing players I missed on for at least six years now, so that’s just some bullshit. And no, I didn’t miss on Biggio. He can’t hit major-league fastballs, and even during this tiny sample where he’s produced that’s held true.

Jason: Is there any specific player that you can think of that really proved you wrong (you didnt think much of them and they have become a star)
Keith Law: Quite a few. Goldschmidt is probably the biggest example, and knowing I missed on him made me more willing to reconsider Rhys Hoskins (a fourth-rounder, RHB, 1B only, not a great body, was old for low A) but the swing worked and his approach was pretty good.
Keith Law: I’m actually struggling because it’s a long list of guys who really changed something about themselves where I either didn’t acknowledge the possibility of the change, or vastly underestimated the probability of the change. I never thought Shane Bieber would add at least a full grade of FB velocity. Kolten Wong worked his way to be a much better defender than I thought he’d ever be. I dinged Austin Riley on his bat speed and poor defense, but he cleaned up his body and worked hard to become maybe a 60 defender at third. Marcus Semien has become a completely different player than he was at Cal or even in the White Sox’s system.
Keith Law: Oh, wait, I’m quiet on guys I missed on. Scratch all that.

Stu: Gary Cohen is great every night,  but last night he was really good talking about BLM.
Keith Law: He is really great at his job because he seems so diligent. I’m actively disappointed when Ron or Keith make a bad point (often because they fall back on conventional wisdom) and it derails the way the three of them generally work. They might be the best booth in the business.

Justi: Why won’t MLB push guys like Tatis, Soto & Acuna more? is it because they’re afraid of offending the guys who don’t watch football anymore because two players kneeled four years ago? a Padres-White Sox WS seems to be something that could “save” the sport.
Keith Law: Those three players have something in common…

Santaspirt: Bohm looks like a legit hitter. But his defense has been shaky. Understanding the small sample caveat, he looked overmatched on anything hit hard to 3rd base. Is that indicative of his defensive potential, something he will eventually even out, or just random noise from the SSS?
Keith Law: His defense has looked awful. You’re being kind. Some of it is that you see harder contact more frequently in the majors than in AA or below, where he played before. But I’m wondering if his reactions aren’t quick enough for the position. Maybe he goes to 1B and Rhys to DH.

Luke: Best board game of 2020 so far and where would it rank in your top 100 if you had to slot it in somewhere?
Keith Law: I am going to bet that the best game of 2020 so far is either in my to-play queue or on its way to me. Sonora is the best I’ve played so far, but I know of a few that I’m pretty sure will beat it in the end.

Foolsgold: Dustin May has out of the world stuff, but not translating to K/9 (6.2),  Should i be worry?
Keith Law: Tiny sample. And he’s young.

Jim: So Washington optioned Kieboom “to give him lots of AB”.  Do you think it’s a matter of him being rushed, or is his hit tool just not as good as they thought it was?
Keith Law: I don’t think he was rushed.

Johnny Lee: Bobby Witt Jr. or Austin Martin?
Keith Law: Martin for me. I have more confidence in his hit tool.

addoeh: Marty Brennaman once called the President of Marshall University a “q***r”.  Homophobia runs in the family.
Keith Law: Pretty good argument against nepotism hires.

27: Keith, How could anyone possibly say they want four more years of this? It’s exhausting, embarrassing, and sad.
Keith Law: Nothing will be more exhausting and depressing than watching ~50-60 million Americans vote for four more years of this. Even if Biden wins, it’s a reminder that a huge portion of the electorate saw this Administration and said, “Please, sir, may I have some more?”

Joe in Quincy: Will Schillings connection to Bannon impact his hall chances? Or has that ship sailed due to his FAR right outlook?
Keith Law: I think he’s getting in this year.

Tom: you mentioned yu, boy hes been fun to watch
Keith Law: This is my perception, but I feel like the baseball world thinks he’s been a disappointment. He hasn’t. When healthy he’s been anywhere from an above-average starter to top 5-10 in his league.

Nelson: What is your take on Otani’s offense going forward? I think I remember you being somewhat down on his offensive potential when he first came to MLB, but, this year not withstanding, he’s seemed to have a decent outcome thus far. Has he surpassed your expectations?
Keith Law: I’ve thought that the more he played as a hitter, the more he’d get a bit exposed – the power is absolutely real, but the way his bat works he’s pretty vulnerable in, and if you can keep him from getting his arms extended you can probably keep him in the ballpark. I don’t think 2020 is indicative of anything but I would be surprised if he repeated 2018-19 while playing full-time, even just as a DH.

Snowy: What do you think about the job Farhan Zaidi has done so far with the Giants? Love the way he has found viable mlb contributors seemingly out of nowhere
Keith Law: Agreed and I like his approach of giving castoffs opportunities rather than trotting out veterans about whom we already know.

Aaron: Keith, I promise this isn’t a ‘gotcha’ question: Has your opinion changed on Dinelson Lamet? Seems your opinion was that he’d be an unbelievable reliever but his potential as a starter was limited by platoon splits. I don’t think he’s really developed that third pitch you wanted for him, but man he’s been awesome this season. Thoughts?
Keith Law: He’s looked incredible, and he’s done so without a good changeup for LHB – he actually has a reverse split this year, including a .159 BABIP vs lefties, which all seems unsustainable to me, but the flip side is he’s pounding the zone with two plus pitches and if he keeps crushing RHB and can just keep lefties from killing him he’ll be a really good starter anyway.
Keith Law: Small sample caveats apply.
Keith Law: well that’s terrible.

addoeh: Are you back on the Islanders bandwagon?  Granted, they are very defensive and nothing like Bossy, Trots, and Potvin.
Keith Law: I had no idea they were in the playoffs until my sister told me the other day.

Tom C: I remember when Mike Cameron had a chance for his 5th HR in the game and got piped a 2-0 fastball. But he took it and explained later he didn’t think it would be right to swing there. I remember thinking “Dude how many chances in your life will you have to hit 5 HRs?”
Keith Law: Agree. And nobody remembers him taking a 2-0 fastball.

AL: Is Andres Gimenez a dude or a backup type ?
Keith Law: I could see him maybe ending up a regular but not a star.

Brian: If there’s an Arizona Fall League in 2020, do you think teams will send more of their high caliber prospects just to get some at-bats and innings?
Keith Law: Yes. And then I’ll have to make a serious decision on whether it’s safe for me to fly there, because from a scouting perspective it would be invaluable.

Frank N.: Can’t hit FBs? He’s got a career 136 wRC+ against them….be better than that. Admit you’re wrong about it.
Keith Law: Small samples aside, he doesn’t hit velocity. That’s not the same thing.

Dave: Any new kitchen gadgets that are going to end up on your annual list?
Keith Law: I can’t think of anything new this year, even with more cooking than usual (because of no travel). I did get a spiralizer attachment for the KitchenAid but haven’t had a chance to try it yet.

Paul: Pending sale aside…am I wrong in thinking that the Mets are closer to a rebuild than a contender? The upper levels of the farm system or pretty bare now. .The pitching is a mess and the team is pretty weak up the middle.
Keith Law: I think their window may have closed most of the way this year. A healthy roster would have been very competitive in a full 2020 though.

Ben: Keith, I disagree with your take on unwritten rules.  In drinking games it’s done to maintain dominance and “win” the game.  In baseball, they’re all about basic sportsmanship and usually protect the loser.  Nobody likes to get beat and then have it rubbed in their face.  It only seems like a racial issue because leagues from other countries don’t have similar tradition, so when they come to the US they get in trouble.  A lot of people got pissed when Bret Boone (apologize if it was another Boone) was doing bat flips too, and he’s a white MLB “legacy” player.
Keith Law: I remember Bret Boone’s bat flips and I hated him for it. I thought it was incredibly obnoxious, especially for a player whose power appeared rather suddenly. But I do not remember anywhere near the days-on-end conversations about his bat flips (or more of a bat drop, I think) like those we’ve had over Tatis or Acuna or Baez.

Michael: This election kind of feels like an episode of The Good Place.  The Bad Place people lie and cheat and project and since they don’t care, nothing happens. The Dems had to apologize for two soldiers showing up in a video in American Samoa, but then the GOP trots out active duty soldiers next to the President and it’s nothing.  I hate it here.
Keith Law: That’s a good analogy. We are in the Bad Place. And I don’t like our odds of getting out.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thank you all for your questions and for reading. Stay safe, wear your masks, and make sure you’re registered to vote.

I’ve got two scouting blogs up for subscribers to the Athletic, one today and one from Tuesday, covering rookies and young players of note.

Keith Law: You’ve got that pure feel, such good responses. Klawchat.

John: Man, Bieber’s command looks really strong.  How did you see him as a prospect?
Keith Law: I saw him as a back-end starter because he was more 88-91. His velocity kept creeping up, which I absolutely did not see coming, so now he’ll sit 94 and his secondary stuff has improved as well. He’s at least a legit #2 starter. I think over time he’ll give up a few too many home runs to be an ace, but I could be wrong again.

Brett J: Jp Crawford has been noticeably better in his small sample size this year. Are you seeing anything that shows his improvements might stick?
Keith Law: I’d say this is more a continuation of what we saw from him last year.

Mike: Just wanted to say the Scouting Notebook pieces you’ve been running on The Athletic have been stellar. Really looking forward to that series for the next week that baseball will be around.
Keith Law: Thank you. The response to the first one was so good that it made doing a second one an easy call. Now I am a bit stuck as we wait for some more debuts, but if we get another week of games, I’ll have enough guys to discuss. Could always look at which players seem noticeably different from last year too.

Andrew: What is the point of the Mariners carrying 2 actual outfielders while Kelenic sits idle in Tacoma? Shouldn’t they just see what he can do against Major League talent?
Keith Law: At this point, no. They’ve pushed off his free agency by a year already.

Jibraun: In his newsletter today, Joe Sheehan mentioned that MLB’s K rate is rising again this year. What rule changes do you think should be instituted to lower K rates?
Keith Law: Raise the bottom of the strike zone. I also think the automated strike zone would help too.

Jebediah: Since you’re a grump with no emotion for baseball, can you just calculate the teams with the highest WAR so we can award the World Series trophy to them?
Keith Law: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Arnold: Did Giants make right choice to not put Joey Bart on roster? On one hand, Posey opting out created space for him and he looks to be major league ready as a hitter. On the other hand, who knows if MLB will make it through the shortened season and Giants aren’t contenders so why waste a year of salary control.
Keith Law: This is the one variable that might stop teams from recalling prospects now – what if the season ends in a few days, and you called up a guy to play three games only to have him get most of a year of service, and maybe put him on the 40-man too soon? I hate that that’s a consideration, but it’s real.
Keith Law: It’s like when the White Sox recalled Michael Kopech a few years ago, and he made two starts before blowing out his elbow. He got a year-plus of service out of that.

Robert: What would it take for the MLB to admit failure and call the season? Half the league not being able to play?
Keith Law: I bet a player in the hospital in serious condition would do it.
Keith Law: Or another Marlins-level outbreak.

AJ: Who were better prospects as amateurs, Cole and Bauer at UCLA or Rocket and Leiter at Vandy?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen the Vandy boys in college, but I think Cole and Bauer.

Deke: Even if we get anything approximating the rest of the 2020 season, it’s still basically going to be a wash. So my question is: Should we be at all optimistic for NEXT YEAR’s MLB season? It seems like there’s every chance this is comparably bad then.
Keith Law: We shouldn’t be optimistic about anything as long as the hoaxers are in power. We should have had a national shutdown for 6 weeks in the spring. Instead we have the worst situation of any developed country, even worse than many developing countries, out of every place that’s been hit with the pandemic. How anyone can see this and not immediately blame the Administration is beyond me.

Kevin W: What would you do with ohtani?  Keep status quo?  Hitter only?  Pitcher only?
Keith Law: I’d pick one. Still prefer him on the mound but if he hasn’t really come back from TJ yet then maybe you let him hit only and have him throw on the side?

Cubs: Is it way to early to call up someone you just drafted?
Keith Law: In theory, now. In this environment, probably.

Patty O’Furniture: Max Fried looked the best he’s ever looked last night!  Not ready to call him an ace or anything, but damn.  He pitched like a grown man
Keith Law: Feeling good about all the years I kept him as a top 50ish prospect. Great athlete, smart kid, just needed time.

Kevin W: Has any player you have scouted ever had all 5 tools rated above 50?
Keith Law: I can’t think of one. Many guys have the power-run-glove-arm tools. Few also have the hit tool.

addoeh: If a player getting seriously ill from COVID nor having half a team testing positive have stopped the season, nothing short of a player dying is going to.
Keith Law: This is also possible.

Kevin W: How are you going to handle school this year with your daughter?
Keith Law: We’re going to do what her school offers, which I believe will be hybrid (a few days in school, a few remote).

Robbie: Were you impressed at all/ have an opinion on the way William Contreras handled his surprise early debut?
Keith Law: No opinion. Minuscule sample. I saw him get overwhelmed in his last game, unfortunately.

Greg: Should Dylan Carlson be playing every day instead of Billy Hamilton 2.0 (Bader)? If so, what kind of numbers would you expect from him in a full season?
Keith Law: I think so. .350+ OBP this year which would be a big help.

Bob: Tatis seems to be worth the $27m it took to pay off Shields.
Keith Law: Yes, yes he does.

Greg: What way do you prefer to cook zucchini  or yellow squash
Keith Law: Fritters! I just made zucchini/corn fritters the other day. Recipe was on Serious Eats.

John: Seems like its impossible to find a reasonable argument with non-maskers, how did our country fall so far, is it really too much to ask to look out for others for 2-3 months?
Keith Law: Masks, evolution, vaccines … so much of this is misguided “liberty” talk, and often is really about people clinging to a vision of yesteryear.
Keith Law: That includes white power, religion, and patriarchy.

Luis: just wanted to congratulate you on the amazing book. I’m at chapter 4 at the moment and waiting for the day to end to dig into ch5! Enjoy your weekend!
Keith Law: Thank you! Glad you’re enjoying it.

addoeh: 2020 is drunk.  The President is promoting a doctor who believes in demon semen.
Keith Law: She’s a massive, massive quack. This is like the President promoting Gwyneth Paltrow or Andrew Wakefield or Uri Geller as authorities on science and medicine.

Mike: Can Tony Gonsolin be a #2 starter? Do you see him seizing a rotation spot this year from Stripling or Wood, if he’s ever healthy?
Keith Law: I like him more than those two guys, but thought he was more of a fourth starter or an ace in a swingman role. Wouldn’t rule him out from a higher ceiling given how far he came just in his first year in pro ball when he was pitching full time.

Benji: I really don’t like Espn anymore
Keith Law: You should hear what ESPN says about you.

Buck: With his changeup looking so good can B Woodruff become a legit ace?
Keith Law: Above league-average starter.

Matt: Keep seeing the White Sox are playing around with Vaughn at 3rd base – assume the chances of him actually being able to play there are ~0%, right?
Keith Law: I think so. Same for Torkelson. Third basemen are usually a lot more agile than those guys.

Mike: Could Dustin May end up starting a playoff game this season?
Keith Law: Why not?

Josh: Might the league be better off pausing the season, and setting up a “bubble” in Southern California, where they can easily play into November while (probably) leaving time to rest for next season?
Keith Law: I suppose we could see if the NBA bubble works, although MLB has more than twice the player count.

Jack: Nick Madrigal making his MLB debut tonight. Do you think he immediately becomes the non-pitcher with the least present power in the big leagues?
Keith Law: It’d be a close competition between him, Leury Garcia, and David Fletcher, I think. Billy Hamilton would win this but he’s not in the majors.

Tom: do you believe padres catcher mejia can be an above average contributor offensively?
Keith Law: He was on my breakouts list last week, so clearly I do.

TC: How much of Edwin Diaz’s struggles are mental vs mechanical? He looked fine in his first two outings up until giving up the home run to Ozuna & last night he had zero command & no feel for a slider.
Keith Law: I think the altered baseball last year really hurt him. His slider went poof when the baseball changed.

Chris P: Hey KLaw, are you going to be able to get any information on the secondary sites for each team? I’m wondering if we’re able to get any information on prospects that aren’t in the show this season.
Keith Law: I expect to get some information, filtered through team sources though, after a few weeks.

Pat D: I’ve been desperate to get this question answered by multiple people.  Shouldn’t the MLBPA fire Tony Clark at the very least get him a MUCH better negotiating partner for the next CBA?  It seems like his track record is pretty terrible so far with these negotiations.
Keith Law: I think it’s more about who’s advising him, and whether he even has final say over negotiations. I’ve heard, anecdotally, that he’s been overruled by people around him, which – if true, and I want to be extremely clear that this is unverified – would be the worst position for a leader.

TC: Is it fair to say the only true way we can have a safe season is if we have a vaccine widely available? Should MLB be concentrating on being able to safely open 2021 spring training?
Keith Law: Other countries have limited the virus’ spread without a vaccine. They locked down nationally, enforced it, and got compliance from the populations. We had a piecemeal approach, hoaxers and deniers in the White House, and mouthbreathers in the streets claiming masks were tyranny (but abducting protesters in unmarked vans and calling for delaying an election isn’t?).

Nate: Will you be able to do a prospect list this offseason? With no minor league games and only the opinions of team officials as to what is happening at their satellite camps, it seems like there just wouldn’t be enough unbiased info to make the process legitimate this year.
Keith Law: Sure, it just won’t change as much year over year as it usually does.

Guest: Does it seem odd to you that Markakis saw how things are going and now has decided to play?
Keith Law: Yes, although maybe he thinks he’ll play for a few weeks, the season will be cancelled, and he’ll at least go back into free agency with some playing time?

Lee: Has Trump officially killed the Republican party?   How the hell did any sane person ever vote for this?
Keith Law: If he loses in November, which I am not willing to assume just yet, the party will quickly move to disavow him, and individual politicians will rewrite history to say they never really supported him. It is on us to stop them from doing so.

Dave: You prefer the Vetri Neopolitan dough to Reinhart? I’ve gotten decent results with Reinhart, but it’s so sticky it’s hard to handle unless I keep it cold, which is suboptimal.
Keith Law: Different doughs for different temperatures. I use Vetri’s Neapolitan for my outdoor oven, which gets to 800+. Reinhart’s is my go-to for indoors, where I set the oven at 500.

Another Matt: What are you missing most about having no minor league season this year?
Keith Law: All of it. Going to games to scout, and to see scout friends, and watching stuff online, and following players through box scores, and talking to scouts and player development people about players.

Leprekhan: Long term Soroka or Fried?
Keith Law: I feel better about Fried staying healthy over the long term than Soroka. Both are probably #2 starters.

Ethan: Any suggestions for Carcassonne expansion packs? Already have hills and sheep and traders and builders. Thanks!
Keith Law: I like Inns & Cathedrals. Haven’t tried Hills & Sheep.

Todd Boss: I know he’s not a major prospect, but Nats farmhand Tres Barrera (who was recently hit with an 80game PED suspension) filed a counter suit.  In the complaint he says he tested positive for “10 picograms” of DHCMT.  In mass units, a picogram is equal to 0.000000000001 of a gram.

If this is true, is this just a patently ridiculous suspension?  Is a MLB player actually being suspended without pay for 80 games for ingesting less than a millionth of a gram of a performance enhancing substance?
Keith Law: I’m probably out of my league answering this, but I think the issue is that you wouldn’t have that in your system at all unless you’d ingested it, because it’s synthetic.

Adam Trask: Nick Madrigal gets the call. You see real value there or replacement level?
Keith Law: More than replacement level. Maybe an average regular if he can keep his average up. My concern remains his inability to make hard contact, with zero power.

Todd Boss: So are you in a Sinclair market that’s being forced to show Plandemic?  Are you setting your DVR?
Keith Law: I am not. I think we’re an hour-plus from their nearest affiliate.

Danny: Simple question and not at all wishcasting- what are the odds that Trump is indicted at some point post-presidency (i.e. election fraud, tax fraud, money laundering, improper profiteering from office?)
Keith Law: I hope that whoever succeeds him, whenever it happens, holds him and his cronies (and his children) accountable for any crimes they’ve committed, rather than pardoning them and saying we need to move forward or turn the page. The latter would simply encourage the next set of grifters who come along.

Adam Trask: We’ve learned JK Rowling is a bigot. I was looking forward to reading the Potter books to my baby girl. Should I still?
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: There is a lot of good in those books, even though their author has revealed herself to be a TERF.

Don: How did we get brainwashed as a country to prefer chicken breasts over chicken thighs?
Keith Law: Our national fat phobia, along with bad advice from some quarters of the federal health establishment.

David: Keith, do you think Jeff Lunhow will work in an MLB front office again?
Keith Law: My guess is no.

Eric: Sadly, my father unexpectedly passed. Do you have any tips for grief or any good books to rec? It’s…hard.
Keith Law: I’m so sorry for your loss. I don’t have a book to recommend, but would certainly suggest talking to a therapist or psychologist, even if it’s just for a few sessions.

Robbie: He’s already 29, so clearly he’s not a prospect, but what’s your opinion of Yaz. He seems to have a great approach and has continued to hit the ball hard to start the season
Keith Law: Extra outfielder at best.

Pat D: Is there any movie that’s SUPPOSED to come out this year that would get you into a theater?  I’m still very determined to see Tenet in IMAX.
Keith Law: No, I’ll wait to see them all at home.

Drew: If you saw an anti-mask tirade in real life like we’re seeing all over the news, would you step in? I keep picturing myself wanting to get involved but also not wanting to be in the cloud of a covidiots screaming and spittle.But my 2020 rage could use a good screaming.
Keith Law: I think I would. I haven’t told anyone to put a mask on, even though I’ve seen people without them, or “wearing” them off their noses and mouths.
Keith Law: If they’re giving an employee a hard time, though, that employee would probably benefit from other customers voicing support. I think.

Greg: Why does there seem to be a very local contingent of fans who are seemingly convinced that sports media are driving some kind of agenda to get sports cancelled? Just general distrust of media of any kind? If the fans are for something, that means the media must be against it? Or just a more widespread dumbing of America?
Keith Law: Distrust of media, and wishful thinking. The funny part is that they think we have some power to affect the outcome.

Arnold: Today’s reports that national pandemic plan was tossed in trash by Jared because COVID-19 was hurting blue cities/states more is both least surprising and most frightening thing yet from this administration.
Keith Law: And should make more people mad … but it won’t.

Brett: Thank you for your taking time to do this today. Kris Bubic makes his big league debut tonight. Have you seen him live, and if so, what did you like/dislike? What’s your ceiling on him long term?
Keith Law: Low ceiling but command/changeup guy who should succeed for a while as a back-end starter.

Don: Leury Garcia is secretly a yoked muscle hamster. Jacked two dongs from both sides of the plate in the opener
Keith Law: ISO under .100 last year. He’s strong for his size, but that size is awfully close to me.

Whodini: What was your favorite song from that Eurovision Song Contest movie?
Keith Law: No interest, sorry.

addoeh: How would you describe yourself when you’ve had a couple adult beverages?  Happy, huggy, sleepy, loud, sings a lot, dances a lot, belligerent, wordy?
Keith Law: I’m more voluble, and I’m told I’m a funny drunk.

Chris: Given his crazy stuff, why has Dustin May struck out less than a batter an inning in his minor-league career? Do you think he ever wins a Cy Young?
Keith Law: He does, or should, get a lot of bad contact.

Guest: Ha the Socialist agenda officially killed the Democratic party? How the hell could any same person ever vote for this?
Keith Law: Please go read any actual history or economics book about what “socialist” means.

Ridley: So, I hear more than a few politicians saying that they’re not going to extend/increase unemployment because they don’t want people to make more money than if they were at work.

Isn’t that the point? Don’t we want to incentivize people to stay at home, avoid spreading the disease, and be safe?
Keith Law: Painting the poor as lazy has been a popular pastime for both parties, especially the GOP, for at least 75 years.

Craig: MLBPA has a say in how the draft is run because draft pick compensation is tied to free agency. Why don’t the owners get rid of free agency compensation so they can do whatever they want with the draft?
Keith Law: The union doesn’t want to give up that say, and they’d have to give that.

Chris P: Vladdy Jr seems to still be hitting mostly groundballs and has only 1 homer going back to last August. Are you noticing anything different from him or his approach that would give you pause? I know he was on your breakout list this year and I still think he’s going to be a star…but I’d be lying if I wasn’t a little concerned.
Keith Law: It’s been a week. Even with the high GB rate last year he had a 105 wRC+, because he hits the ball hard. Everyone I’ve asked who’s spent time around him thinks he’s such a smart hitter he’ll get to driving the ball more. Also, he’s just 21, way too soon to be concerned. He’d be a junior in college right now.

Sal: Earlier you said to raise the bottom of the strike zone to deal with the rise in Ks. Is that suggestion for a hard rule change or for umps being less generous with the low strike?
Keith Law: A hard rule change.

Jonny: “individuals with a cervix” by CNN today.   At some point this becomes Orwellian speech, no?
Keith Law: Please go read 1984 if you’re going to allude to it.

xxx(yyy): do you listen to any podcasts? have any recs for non-baseball related ones?
Keith Law: Grierson & Leitch, The Hidden Brain, BBC’s The Inquiry. I don’t have time to get through any more right now with no car time.

Sal: One last one….can you give Mets fans *any* reason not to start twitching when they hear or read the name “Kelenic”?
Keith Law: No, sorry. You should be permanently angry over BVW just giving him away.

Frank: The Giants traded for Zach Cozart and released him before the season was shorted so they owe him the money for this contract under the 2020 season.  Since he was released before the new agreement and 60 game schedule, do they owe him the full amount of his contract or the agreed upon prorata amount?  If its the later, makes this trade even better for the Giants.
Keith Law: Great question. I assume pro rata but I do not know for sure.

Andrew: If MLB created a “Utility Man of the Year Award” (think: NBA 6th Man of the Year), who would you name it after?
Keith Law: Tony Phillips.

addoeh: For Eric, I lost my dad two weeks after he was diagnosed with cancer.  Talk to a therapist, talk to friends.  For me, it was time that also helped.
Keith Law: Thank you.

Samsonite: I wouldn’t normally recommend this kind of thing but this year is different – you should watch that Eurovision Song Context movie. Is it dumb? Very much so. Is it good? Well, I guess it’s not. But it made me happy for a couple of hours and I’ve had some really terrible songs in my head for a week.
Keith Law: It’s not even a style of movie I like. There are still so many movies out there I want to watch and don’t have time to see – plus a billion TV shows, although I’ve finally started watching Stranger Things – that I can’t see spending time on something I’m so unlikely to enjoy.
Keith Law: ok, apparently Cozart gets the full salary because he was released before the season.

That Guy in Detroit: The U.S. might benefit from the presence of an actual “socialist” party — and ranked choice voting to give it, and others, an actual shot
Keith Law: The presence of one, yes. I don’t think I’d like to live anywhere with a true socialist party in power.

Ken: Let me rephrase the question. Has the policies of the Democratic Party made it impossible for them to win a Presidential election?
Keith Law: Their candidate got 3 million more votes than her opponent last time, so I am pretty sure your questions reflect more about your desires than they do any political reality.

xxx(yyy): who would you rather have for the next 5 years as a team cornerstone – Vladito or Joey Gallo?
Keith Law: Vlad.

Mickey: hey Keith – loved the book, of course. Are you less active on twitter these days or am I just missing your tweets (or mis-remembering you as being more active in previous years)?
Keith Law: Less active. It just doesn’t pay to have discussions on there, let alone to argue with anyone. Credit to Twitter for finally booting David Duke, but the site is still overrun by bots, racists, science deniers, and just general assholes.
Keith Law: People will say *anything* if they don’t have to put their names on it.

Henry: Isn’t the entire 2020 season just a small sample size? I’m not sure if we can count anyone’s performance this season seriously.
Keith Law: I tried to make a similar point at the top of my predictions column. Sixty games is less than half a season. It would get us to about June 10th in a regular year.

JJ: The Democrats’ candidate has won the popular vote in six of the last seven elections.  It’s not their policies that are keeping them from the White House …
Keith Law: It’s the electoral college, and maybe some gerrymandering and voter suppression.

Patty O’Furniture: Thoughts on Mike Foltynewicz?
Keith Law: Not sure where his velocity went, but he might be a candidate to take eight months off to try to regain strength, or let whatever’s gone awry heal up, and try again in February or March.

Jackie: Giving a 12 year contract to any player is just insane, right?  Mookie might be a great player now, but the vast majority of major leaguers don’t last nearly that long.  If the Dodgers employ an actuary, he probably pulled out all his hair.
Keith Law: It’s a luxury tax thing. You spread out the payments over more years to reduce the AAV and thus reduce the hit to your payroll for LT purposes.
Keith Law: Nobody thinks he and Harper and Trout will still be $30MM+ players at age 40. It’s just accounting.

Colin: Don’t you think Yaz as an “extra OF at best” is a bit harsh? He hit last year at a solid OF level already. After reading MVP machine, I feel more open to late bloomers, myself. Especially when I didn’t know what was not happening for the player in their early-mid 20s
Keith Law: No, it’s right. I’d go further: without the Happy Fun Ball, he wouldn’t even be that. I’m sorry that the .556 BABIP he has so far this year hasn’t changed my view.

Greg: I don’t like that there is a world series attached to this. Can we just call this a beefed up spring training. I’d be happy with that.
Keith Law: At this point, I’m happy with every day of games we get, and not looking any further.
Keith Law: I need to wrap this up a bit early and will be offline most of the weekend, so I won’t have a links post up Saturday either. Thank you all for reading and for all of your questions. Please stay safe and wear your masks.

My latest column for subscribers to the Athletic is up now, looking at prospects who were included in 60-man player pools, and notable omissions as well.

Keith Law: Where lands are green and skies are blue. Klawchat.

Matt: A few weeks ago there was a video of Tarik Skubal throwing 102 during a work out.  As a Tigers fan should I be concerned with him overthrowing like that or is stuff like that commonplace with pitchers when they train?
Keith Law: No, I wouldn’t be concerned, but I also wouldn’t believe that that was some new normal for him, or that he’ll start throwing like that in games. Kevin Gausman used to hit 102-103 in college by crow-hopping one throw at the end of his pregame warmups. That’s not real. And these guys throwing 101+ in highly controlled situations that show up on twitter videos are not going to throw that hard when they’re in real games, going 90-110 pitches, with actual batters and umpires involved.

Matt D: Does the cultural appropriation in board gaming ever give you pause? Ever passed on playing a game due to theme, artwork, accuracy, etc.? I struggle with this esp given prevalent whiteness of board gamers.
Keith Law: Yes, I gave a critical review to the original version of Five Tribes (since revised) for including slave cards in the game. The argument from the designer was that it was accurate to the history of the time and culture covered, but it was unnecessary and insensitive. I’ve avoided some other games with themes that made me uncomfortable, and shared a big article from the New York Times a year or so ago about a game that never saw the market that depicted European countries’ rush to colonize Africa around 1900.

Guest: I have to make a long term fantasy decision, Grayson Rodriguez or Tarik Skubal. Who is the better prospect?
Keith Law: Skubal for me. My answer to these questions will usually line up with my rankings of the players on my top 100, unless there’s a timing issue (one player being far closer to the majors than the other).

Guest: Kyle Wright or Felix Hernandez for the Braves 5th rotation slot
Keith Law: Depends a little on how Felix throws. If he has some velocity back, I’d be fine giving him the spot. I wonder if the longer layoff will help some older pitchers like him who’ve lost velocity in the last year or two.

Matt: I can’t be the only one nonplussed about celebrating tomorrow.
Keith Law: What is there to celebrate right now?

Guest: At what point do the Braves address the surplus of young, big league ready pitchers on the roster? Newcomb, Toussaint, Wilson, Wright, Muller and others seem stuck.
Keith Law: Some will end up in bullpen roles but I think we’ll see some of those names traded either in August or this offseason to fill an offensive hole somewhere.

Tom: How do you evaluate SP Jose Urquidy for Houston?
Keith Law: Fourth starter ceiling, since his four-seamer is probably too hittable. Full report on him in my Astros prospect rankings from the spring.

HH: Do you think it’s strange that after all this time baseball still doesn’t have a real definition of a “checked swing”?
Keith Law: I do, and I don’t. I do think it’s strange that the definition hasn’t been clarified in, what, decades? But I also can see an argument that a checked swing is about intent, and judging intent is inherently subjective.
Keith Law: I might look up that definition several times a year, because I find my mind tries to put language into it that isn’t there, and it’s so unsatisfying to get a non-answer from the rules.

Pat D.: Why are they still pretending like the Field of Dreams game is going to happen?
Keith Law: I have no idea. Field of Pipe Dreams is more like it.

Adam: What is the percent chance we see a game on the 23rd in your opinion?
Keith Law: I think we get games on the July 23rd. I am way less optimistic that we see games on September 23rd.

kc: what do you see out of Montas, Luzardo and Puk? Kaprelian, Jefferies?
Keith Law: All are covered in my Oakland prospect rankings. I do think that Luzardo and Puk belong in their rotation right now.

Will: You’re high on Bryce Wilson. Should the Braves move him now before they settle him into a bullpen role and kill his value?
Keith Law: I don’t think it would kill his value to use him in relief. Other teams have scouting reports from the last two years that show what he can do as a starter (and what he still needs to work on).

x: two questions about Atlanta already but your time has come! it’s over in Washington, Atlanta and Cleveland next right!?
Keith Law: Cleveland is far more egregious than Atlanta. I think if Cleveland falls – and my god, it has to now, it’s an absolute embarrassment that it’s even taken this long – then we can shift our focus to Atlanta (and the chant, it’s the chant more than anything).

Ryan: Hey Keith. My in laws are right wing nut jobs. They keep trying to get my wife to go visit them, but they don’t wear masks and insist that covid is a hoax. My wife is stressed out because she feels like she is betraying her family. I told my wife I don’t want her visiting them anymore with how much they don’t care. How should I handle this situation? For context, I’m in Arizona. Thank you.
Keith Law: You shouldn’t visit them – it’s now a matter of safety, especially since they’re older and all the information we have says that the older you are the more able you are to catch AND to spread this virus.

Matt: Why don’t sports leagues just relocate to countries that have very low cases of covid and just quarantine there?
Keith Law: Why would those countries take us? Imagine sending all MLB players, coaches, and staff – easily over 1000 people – to Uruguay. Why would Uruguay let us in, knowing that the odds are quite high that at least one person in the group would have the virus?

Guest: So I get the obvious reasons why the Redskins’ name has to go.  But does the logo?  If the Redskins were renamed the Lakota or the Comanche, would the name/logo combo still be racist?  Why?
Keith Law: Yes. And yes.

Nate: Do you think the short season could help Forrest Whitley finally get back on track again? Seems like it would help with his workload a lot, but who knows if he’s finally figured his mechanics  back out again?
Keith Law: Don’t think the short season matters. His mechanics were fine in the AFL.

AJ: Who was a better prospect as an amateur for you, Zac Veen or David Dahl? Are they similar prospects in any way other than LHH HS OF’s?
Keith Law: Veen, by a small margin. He’s got more raw power at the same age.

Lark11: Do you think Jesse Winker gets the majority of the DH ABs for the Reds? What do you think Winker’s offensive peak will be? Thanks.
Keith Law: He’s nearly a .400 OBP guy vs RHP already in the majors. I think he’ll do well enough against lefties, given more experience, that he won’t have to be platooned. Even at 15 HR/year that’s a regular, and that ballpark may mean he gets well past that.

Greg: The NBA has a “bubble” set up that the players aren’t supposed* to leave, and even then players are worried. Baseball players… are just coming and going as they please? Who knows how many different people they’ll come into contact with? Realistically, there’s almost no way even this shortened season is completed, right?
Keith Law: As far as I can tell, it’s an honor system, assuming that players will behave outside of the ballpark, and there is no way I will believe that all of these men, some of whom are barely adults, will adhere strictly to basic safety procedures (like, say, avoiding bars).

Greg: Low on the list of concerns I know… but is this going to be the worst/best/most interesting Oscars year ever? Are they going to have to change the rules for movies released VOD? Does anyone really want to go back top movie theaters?
Keith Law: They have already changed the rules to allow movies that go right to VOD to compete – you no longer have to have a theatrical run. So I think Hamilton is now eligible. The bigger concern from an overall quality perspective is that many studios may just push movies into 2021 – like In the Heights, for example.

Amin: Hi Keith – Is it fair to read into Austin Beck’s omission from the list of 60 players as a sign of Oakland’s diminishing faith/frustration with his development? It seems rather odd that they wouldn’t invite a player that they picked 6th overall and gave $5 million to only 3 years ago even though his production has been underwhelming.
Keith Law: I see it that way, at least. Just get him reps and time working with your coaches in Stockton.

Rich M: How would you grade the Padres 2020 draft now that they signed Cole Wilcox?
Keith Law: I loved their draft from the start because I had no doubt they would sign Wilcox.

Jason: Are projected rookie starters like Lux and Kieboom on a much shorter leash with the abbreviated season?
Keith Law: I don’t know but it seems foolish. What’s a short leash in 60 games? A week? You can’t evaluate anyone off that.

Jason: Over/under on Gore’s innings in 2020?  Also, I saw the picture of Gore in your piece today and his leg kick is ridiculously high.  Do you expect that will be an issue for him in the majors?  Thanks and have a great holiday weekend.
Keith Law: He’s always had that leg kick and repeats it every time. No issue there. I am not making any guesses on innings/at bats at this point when we don’t even know who’s passing their entrance COVID-19 tests.

addoeh: The major European domestic soccer leagues have re-started and Germany has even completed their’s.  Leagues for various sports in Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand have all re-started.  The NHL is probably going to complete it’s season in Toronto and Edmonton.  But the US can barely get to square one.  Pretty pathetic.
Scott: Any new book recommendations?
Keith Law: Yep. It surprises me that more patriotic Americans aren’t pissed off that other countries’ responses are so clearly superior to ours. We’re not #1. We are probably last. Shouldn’t that make you mad if you want to be proud of your country?
Keith Law: I just reviewed Being Wrong and would recommend it strongly, as I would Mindware, a review of which I was writing this morning. I am also 3/4 of the way through Ann Patchett’s The Dutch House, one of the finalists for this year’s Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, and it’s excellent.

Rob: We’ve done a relatively decent job of containing covid here in Canada.  I love the Jays but don’t want any part of them playing regular season games here.  Am I off base?
Keith Law: I won’t blame anyone who opposes sports leagues trying to resume play, or doesn’t want them playing in their town/area.
Keith Law: There’s a good argument that this is all folly, that no league should be trying to play games in the US right now while the pandemic is still raging across the south and threatening to surge again in California and New York.

Matt: Honor system? Imagine how pissed off 10 year veterans with 9 figure bank accounts are gonna be when they find out some taxi squad scrub tested positive because he ate at Olive Garden and sang karaoke at the dive bar across the street.
Keith Law: The veteran can yell at them from six feet away.

Jason: Do you know whether the criteria for rookie eligibility will be lowered and/or prorated?
Keith Law: I have not heard anything about that – I don’t think they will, or should be, but it’s possible I missed it.

Jason: Will starting pitchers be at the park on game day?  Should they?  Wouldn’t it be much better to keep starters separate from the relievers and starting position players from everyone else.  I fear that they will do this all wrong.
Keith Law: If you’re not starting or otherwise unavailable on game day there’s no reason for you to be at the park this year. Again, I don’t know if that’s a policy.

Mike: i know boras is involved but shouldn’t signing Austin Martin be pretty straightforward?  Seems jays are often late in getting deals done…
Keith Law: Don’t think this is anything to do with the Jays. Martin was the best player in the class and went fifth. That’s going to make the negotiations a bit slower.
Keith Law: He should sign, though. He doesn’t really have leverage here – returning to school, with pandemic uncertainty, a strong likely class, and age working against him, is not a good alternative to whatever the Jays’ best offer is.

scrapper: do we know yet how many minor league teams will be gone permanently, starting in 2021?
Keith Law: I believe we’ll be down to 120 full-season teams, then some unknown number of GCL/AZL teams, plus a DSL that looks probably like it did last year.
Keith Law: So all short-season leagues between the complexes and low-A will be gone. Many of those franchises (Aberdeen, Brooklyn, the Northwest League) will move up to full-season leagues. But the number will be 120 plus the complex teams.

Scrapper: Do you Netflix?  Any preferred shows on that platform?
Keith Law: Of course. We just finished Sex Education (the two seasons so far); the acting in that show is incredible, but the writing falls short so often, turning way too much into a teen soap opera. Loved Russian Doll, Never Have I Ever, Big Mouth. Money Heist was very disappointing.

Joe: I got into a Twitter debate a while back with a baseball writer with a national platform who was making the argument that there is no difference between a vote for Trump and a vote for Biden. This is a relatively insane opinion, right?
Keith Law: It is an incorrect statement, probably given by someone unfamiliar with the current administration’s rollbacks of environmental protections or equal rights protections.

Paul: Is Hassell’s hit ability enough to take him above Veen?  Can he stay in center?
Keith Law: Yes to the hit tool, probably no to center.

Scrapper: How soon before we hear teams trying to stick 10-15k fans per game into their stadiums?
Keith Law: Wasn’t Texas already trying this?

Pat D.: If Mike Trout were to opt out, how many others do you think would follow, and would that effectively end the season?
Keith Law: I don’t think him opting out would lead to a big flood of defections. I think it’s more of a tipping point issue – if the trickle of opt-outs keeps going, the pace will accelerate, and eventually we’ll hit some percentage (20%? 30%) where the season becomes infeasible.

Matt: I know it’s not MLB,  but keep in mind the Super Bowl is scheduled in *checks notes* Tampa.
Keith Law: Imagine a Super Bowl without fans. Dead quiet for three hours of football. All because we couldn’t stand to shut the country down for two months.

Joules: Let’s say Ender’s hamstring explodes, could Pache do enough at the plate to be an everyday CF in 2021 assuming that season is ~normal
Keith Law: Yes.

Andy: Bettendorf, Iowa, is having a youth baseball tournament next weekend featuring over 100 teams from at least 4 different states. So the reason the Field of Dreams game is still on, is because Iowa is denial about anything being different.
Keith Law: As they have been since the start of this. Iowa, Nebraska, Arizona, Texas … weird, what do all those governors and legislatures have in common?
Keith Law: I think I just deleted a question by mistake – someone asked if I’d read The Ghost of King Leopold and, if they meant King Leopold’s Ghost, I have.

Taylor: Are you a fan of power metal? If so, i recommend a band called Unleash the Archers. The singer’s voice is gorgeous.
Keith Law: I am. I’ll check it out.

Steve: I’m curious, as an analytical person, how do you decide what political efforts (PACS, candidates, initiatives, etc) to support to get the most bang for your buck. I have limited resources, my local races are fairly set, so I’m looking at the KY, ME Senate races, for example.
Keith Law: Same. I keep the same approach as I do with charitable donations – I give where my buck likely gets the most bang. Food pantries are generally great for this.

Erik: Speaking of Big Mouth and other shows that are changing voice actors. Performative wokeness or actual good?
Keith Law: It absolutely bugged me that Missy, the one prominent black character on Big Mouth, was voiced by a white actor. (Duke Ellington is kind of a side gag.) Also, the show is long over, but my daughter watched Littlest Pet Shop, and the fact that a white person was voicing Sunil with a stereotypical Indian/south Asian accent was kind of appalling.

Doug: How do you think Mateo fits into the Padres plans this year? Still think he has star potential?
Keith Law: I’d probably stick him in CF – they don’t have a proper CF on the roster, right? – and see what happens. I don’t think there’s star potential there any more.

Adam: If Cole Wilcox was highly rated and apparently valued at his $3.3 mil asking price, why was he not selected in a more traditional slot to meet that price?
Keith Law: Perhaps not every team saw him at that price, and there’s certainly an opportunity cost to taking him there.

Guest: Of all, the bad ideas, wasn’t allowing bars to open in a pandemic one of the all time dumbest? With how people act when drunk, it was always clear bars would help cause a surge.
Keith Law: Yes. But the liquor industry has a lot of political power.

Jake: I’m also a huge footie fan and, watching the Premier League’s “Project Restart” is painful. No fans, fake crowd noise, and the intensity of a summer friendly (think spring training).

Is there anything that MLB can do to make these “baseball” games feel like Baseball?
Keith Law: Eh, I’m fine without fans. I’d be fine without broadcasters. I’d skip the fake crowd noise for sure.

Kevin: I think the Padres plan on Grisham in center.
Keith Law: He’s not a CF.

Mike: I think I’ve suggested this before, but you should give the books of Guy Kay Gavriel a shot……a great writer.
Keith Law: Sean Doolittle recommended Sailing to Sarantium and it’s on my Kindle right now.
Keith Law: I’m reading Say Nothing next, though. I got that from my local library – they’re doing curbside pickup now.

Adam: Do you prefer Jarred Kelley for $3mil or Cole Wilcox for $3.3mil?
Keith Law: I ranked the top 100 prospects for this year’s draft class right before the draft itself.

Patrick: How do I square my malignant life-long love of the Cubs with my complete disrespect for Pete Ricketts? Can I support a team when one of the owners is willing to allow people to die?
Keith Law: You could watch them, and root for them, but decline to spend money on them in the form of tickets or merchandise.

JT: Are some prospects losing their shots this year?

Can players still develop in workouts, or is this just too hard?
Keith Law: That was the subject of my column last week … short answer is yes, some will lose their shots, and some will still be able to develop at home, but the only players who might be better off not playing than playing are pitchers who might have pitched this year at less than 100% and get more recovery time.

Rick: Thank you for the enormous amount of work that you put into draft coverage.  I am just curious..  do you get emails from agents or parents of prospects?  I hope that they are civil in nature.
Keith Law: Occasionally. I try not to engage with parents who are anything but civil, because there is no gain for anyone in arguing with a parent that their kid isn’t as good as they think he is. It’s pointless and mean. Agents are another story, as interacting with them is generally part of my job, and most of them can still be civil even when we disagree because they understand that this is just business.

JD: You get to rename the Redskins.  What’s their new name?
Keith Law: I like the suggestion that they use the Grays for its historical significance (that’s the most prominent Negro Leagues team to play in DC), but it’s not the most inspiring name beyond that. I don’t have a better suggestion, though.

KRod: When do you move Vladdy over to 1st?  is that even the best move?
Keith Law: Now. Or right to DH. He’s not going to be very good at first, given his size and conditioning.

Chris: What 60 man pool interests you the most?
Keith Law: I highlighted quite a few teams that stuffed their 60-man rosters with prospects – the Padres were one, the White Sox another. If I could go to watch the Yankees satellite camp (no media or scouts allowed, alas) I’d be there a bunch.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for reading and for your questions, as always. Please be safe this holiday weekend, on the roads and out and about. Wear your masks, avoid enclosed spaces, stay out of bars, wash your hands. The last thing the country or MLB needs is a big surge in cases after this weekend because people got pandemic fatigue and stopped taking basic precautions. Stay safe everyone.

Starting at 1 pm ET. My latest piece for The Athletic subscribers looks at how player development execs are working with minor leaguers who won’t play games this year. I also reviewed the new board game Santa Monica for Paste.

Keith Law: Delivered by mortal hands. Klawchat.

Casey: Should the Dylan Carlson be starting immediately in the Cardinals outfield with such a short season?
Keith Law: I think so. Who’s the clearly better option?

Ben: With the 60-player pool, it sounds like the plan is to just anticipate a lot positive tests and play through them while those that test positive quarantine. Is that your understanding too? Do you see a scenario where they end the season, other than the virus simply getting out of control and preventing teams from even fielding enough players?
Keith Law: I do not think that’s the plan – I think the 60 player roster is to account for typical baseball injuries, bereavement, etc. If there are a lot of positive tests I would expect a halt to the season.

BVW: Do you like my draft strategy from the last 2 years? I like a few high upside guys with lesser talent rather than solid guys across the board.
Keith Law: I like the Mets’ draft strategy for the last several years. I don’t think that is Brodie’s strategy.

Mike: How much of the acrimonious public negotiation between MLB and the players was because of a desire to bust the union once and for all?
Keith Law: I’ve said this in a few places – I think MLB wanted to set the tone for the 2021 CBA talks by pursuing a hard line in these negotiations as well as those with MILB and the umpires’ union.
Keith Law: It’s a credible commitment strategy. The union, to their credit, did not blink.

Brandon J.: Hey Keith, do you think that Clayton Beeter has the ceiling of a Lugo/Pressly type reliever? Or do you think he has a higher ceiling if healthy?
Keith Law: Starter ceiling. Just higher risk with the delivery, one injury, lack of a definite third pitch.

Todd Boss: So, elephant in the room, but with a third of all MLB teams already having players test positive before we’ve even started “spring training,” with Toronto banned from traveling to its home stadium, and with cases exploding in the two ST states … who actually believes we’re gonna play baseball??
Keith Law: The optimistic take on this is that those positive tests came with players working out essentially on their own rather than under the health and safety protocols from the new agreement.

Todd Boss: So post-draft, is there any evidence that a team “punted” on the 2020 draft like some were worried about?
Keith Law: Nope. That story did not check out even before the draft.

Steve: Hey Keith, have you heard any buzz on draft picks that you’re concerned might NOT sign with their team?
Keith Law: None. I expect them all to sign unless they fail physicals. Jim Callis tweeted the same thing yesterday.

John: With the introduction of the new extra inning rule placing a runner on second base to start the inning, how do you feel about bunting him over to third to start the frame? I know you have had a strong stance against bunting before, but does this change it?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s good strategy for the visiting club, since the home team gets the same starting position.

Mike B: Is this chat mask-optional?
Keith Law: Masks are required. In all seriousness, I’m blocking anyone who tries to make anti-mask arguments to me on Twitter. Go do your science denial somewhere else.

Mr. Met: The last two drafts, it appears the Mets strategy has been to draft high end prospects early then money-savers the rest of the way to meet the bonus demands. Do you like this strategy?
Keith Law: Yes, especially for a team like that Mets that should, at least in theory, operate as a large-market club.

Joe: Any undrafted signings stand out to you as maybe being more than just filler?
Keith Law: Not really. $20K doesn’t get you a definite prospect. There were some good senior signs, though – Landon Knack (Dodgers, second round) stood out as one.

Todd Boss: how are players planning on even getting back into the country if they’re from the DR or Venezuela right now?   Isn’t there a travel ban on all “sh*thole” countries like theirs?
Keith Law: Shouldn’t the players be more concerned that after three months in the US they won’t be allowed back home? The EU appears set to ban us from travelling there, and they’re right to do so.

Guest: Which of the 2020 first round picks are most likely to see mlb action in a short season ?  Relievers seem most likely or SPs who can just air it out for an inning.
Keith Law: Max Meyer stands out.

Joe: Fair to be disappointed with the Orioles draft haul?  They had the most money but didn’t get any elite guys.
Keith Law: I didn’t care for it. They saved money on Kjerstad but passed on the best available HS players, and other teams’ scouts really panned the Mayo pick to me (as an overslot candidate).

Tom: What are the odds we look back in a few years and wonder how Blaze Jordan lasted so far into the draft?
Keith Law: 1%. He’s just nowhere near the prospect the Internet proclaimed him to be.

Ben: Is it there a chance Torkelson debuts late this summer? Would that be ill-advised?
Keith Law: My guess is no, because the Tigers are unlikely contenders, but I wouldn’t call it ill-advised.

Tommy: What is the actual science right this moment regarding masks? It seems like there’s no consensus, yet everyone is still advocating for them, so maybe I’m just reading too many comment sections.
Keith Law: Using a mask drastically reduces your odds of spreading the virus if you have it. If everyone used masks, we’d be in far better position now than we are – we’d be where Italy and Spain and other countries that actually enforced mask-wearing and physical distancing are. The economy would be mostly open, and we wouldn’t have surges and increasing deaths.
Keith Law: There is NO argument against masks, except for “I have a tiny brain and don’t care about other people.”

TomBruno23: What would it take to get you to attend an MLB game this summer?
Keith Law: For work, yes, I expect to go. As a fan, I would not.

Jason: What’s the point of Bolton coming out now and saying the President is incompetent and corrupt. Should he have done more or is he a coward just like everyone else? Or is it just about the 2 million from his book deal.
Keith Law: Filthy lucre.

Ben Davis Bunts: What are the chance the Padres sign Wilcox?
Keith Law: Barring a failed physical, 100%.

Mike: Am I wrong for thinking that most sports should just shut it down for the season & start from fresh next season? I’m concerned that we will now have difficulties with at least 2 seasons instead of just writing off this season.
Keith Law: I am of the opinion that it is worth making the effort, with proper protocols in place, even knowing that there is a 50% or greater chance we fail to complete a season. However, I am very open to the idea that we shouldn’t try at all, because doing so creates risks I’m not foreseeing.

John: Will teams have to use player options to move them between the active roster and taxi squad?
Keith Law: I just re-read the manual; it says that all optioned players will be treated as assigned to the alternate-site roster, which is the converse, but I infer from that that a player sent from the active roster to the satellite roster must be optioned. The taxi squad refers to up to three players brought to the major-league stadium as emergency replacements but not actually on the active roster.

Mike: I get that Manfred works for the owners, but do the owners not see they are all hurting the game with their stance.  It’s probably wrong to be playing at all, but if they are going to play it should have already started when no other major sports were out there.
Keith Law: I don’t think the owners in that camp care. I think they’re wrong, and are underestimating the elasticity of demand as well as how vulnerable the capital appreciation of their team values is.

Turlock Tom: The buzz surrounding Tyler Soderstrom seemed a bit overinflated prior to the draft. Do you think going #26 is about the right range for him?
Keith Law: I do.

Arnold: Best post-draft signing by the Giants?
Keith Law: None. As I said above, you’re not getting players we already know to be prospects for $20K. Some may turn into prospects in time, but they’re not right now.

Mike: There were only 133 news cases in Italy yesterday. We are legit the dumbest country in the world
Keith Law: My cousins live there, and I’ve been several times. Italy is hardly the exemplar of a compliant, rule-following culture. Yet they did it, and they beat this thing back enough to resume something resembling normal life. Our current state in the US is our fault, from the leaders we elected to the tolerance we’ve had for those who act only in their own self-interest or who believe whatever they read on Reddit or Facebook about deepstate conspiracies to reduce your oxygen intake.

Bighen: Truly no agenda here but a lot of people outside the game talk about how awash it is in cash.  Several sources (including the NY Times) have stated that the Mets have lost $50M in certain seasons and might lose $100M+ this season.  I realize that there is SNY shenanigans going on, but SNY can’t generate enough cash to offset a loss like that – revenue yes, actual profits no.   Where is the disconnect?   I am really just a Mets  fan that wants to be rid of the Wilpons ASAP.   Valuation <> cash flow
Keith Law: Yes, SNY absolutely can, especially since they’re (likely) paying a pittance for those broadcast rights.

Ken: A couple weeks old now, but: JK Rowling, why?
Keith Law: Very disappointing. She’s hinted at this before – and, let’s face it, retconning Dumbledore as a gay character was pretty weak when she absolutely could have revealed this in books 6 or 7 and nobody would have stopped her – but for her to lay bare her transphobia like that was extremely disappointing.

TomBruno23: Balancing safety concerns and the need to keep my wife and children sane we have booked a week-long trip to Holland, MI for the end of July. Private home, etc etc blah blah blah. How dumb am I?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s dumb. Michigan is among the leading states in their response to the virus – their Rt is extremely low, they’re testing adequately, and their contact tracing rate is about 75% already. If they continue on this track, I think it’d be safe to go there in late July. Then it’s a matter of what you do yourselves once there – avoiding crowds, wearing masks, etc.

addoeh: “Kung Flu”.  I hope there aren’t a lot of kids of Asian descent, like my son, who get called that in the fall because the President said it.
Keith Law: It is fucking gross that our President says it and his toadies defend it. I never thought I’d see the day when a U.S. President was openly racist like that and a third of the country shrugged. Even when I was a kid, our leaders were good enough to keep their racism subtle.

J5: Should KeBryan Hayes be starting immediately?
Keith Law: I think so.

Guest: How many times do you think we’ll see this in extra innings: Bunt the runner to third followed by two intentional walks to set up a force at home? I hope never but…
Keith Law: Many times.

BK: I couldn’t believe that a former GM on MLB radio questioned the Giants for drafting Bailey in the first round because they had drafted Bart high 2 years ago. How silly is the idea of drafting for needs in the MLB draft? If Bailey is the best player on the Gaints’ board, then the pick is perfectly defensible…do you agree?
Keith Law: I have a guess at that former GM and I’d say consider the source.
Keith Law: Also, Bart has already had multiple injuries that might impact the Giants’ internal projections for him staying at C.

Mike: Can you explain how athleticism helps a pitcher with their delivery? I heard that discussed with one of the picks and don’t really get it
Keith Law: The better the athlete, the better he can repeat any series of movements – a delivery, a swing, an arm stroke – which, for pitchers, appears to be positively correlated with command.

Dave: How long of a look does Tork get at 3B before ultimately moving back to 1B?  or do you think he can actually stick at 3B long term?
Keith Law: I think he’s a 1b.

Ben: What do you make of Fauci’s “necessary lie” early on in the pandemic that mask’s weren’t necessary for average people (in order to preserve the supply for medical professionals)? The ends may have justified the means, but I did lose a level of trust (and resisted masks earlier on as a result)
Keith Law: Look at the harm it did. Some people still use this as a reason to disbelieve Fauci and/or the government.

Adam: Do you expect Adley Rutschman to see time this year?
Keith Law: No.

Dave: Do you expect to see Gore and Pearson on OD rosters?
Keith Law: No but I think both will appear.

Greg: So… My wife and I are lucky enough to be comfortably middle class. I lost my job, but we’re getting by, and actually donating more money and tipping service people more than usual, given the circumstance. This isn’t any sort of brag, but just saying WTF BASEBALL OWNERS!? The terrible bar by my house has figured out how to stay open and safe and keep people employed. Are we to believe baseball ownership runs on such paper-thin margins as the third-best falafel restaurant in town?
Keith Law: That’s what they want us to believe, but they have lied about their profits for at least forty years now, so why should we accept their statements now when they won’t open their books to anyone?

Andrew Brotherton: What do you think will be done about the minor league season? Some sort of super AZFL? An instructional league? A taxi-squad league?
Keith Law: The most likely answer is none. I don’t expect any minor league game action this year.

Ben: The A’s acknowledged that Jeff Criswell’s delivery needs to be cleaned up in order for him to project as a starter. Do you agree with that assessment and are you optimistic that Oakland can do that given their player/pitcher development history?
Keith Law: I do agree. I don’t think it’s that easy to do.

Tom: Growing up in the 80s and 90s, I used to really believe that it didn’t matter who the president was. But now… not being hyperbolic: Has there been an American president, even fiction, who’s done more tangible harm to a greater number of people, not just in the US but around the world?
Keith Law: Not in my lifetime.
Keith Law: Buzz Windrip is close, though.

Rick: A co-worker I’m around a lot tested positive for COVID-19, so now I’m on day 2 of my 14 day quarantine.  I’m participating in your chat to help me get through my boredom.  Can I get a shout out for being a good person and not going out and putting others at risk?
Keith Law: Indeed. Sorry for the tough break, though.

Tommy: Again, not questioning, just genuinely curious, but there’s nothing about masks and building immunity against the virus?
Keith Law: No. People pushing ‘immunity’ as a counterargument to masks are doing so without facts to back them up – we still don’t know what kind of immunity people who are infected have against future reinfection.
Keith Law: There’s an assumption – because science education in the US largely sucks – that if you get a virus once, you can’t get it a second time. That’s obviously not true with the common cold or the flu, but for whatever reason there are who people who assume this is true of COVID-19, and we do not know that.

Rob: Finally saw Knives Out now that it is streaming free.  As someone who has tried and failed to read it twice, the Gravity’s Rainbow joke had me rolling. Any advice for getting through books that are particularly tough reads?
Keith Law: I try to set reasonable per-day reading goals (e.g., 40 pages), and go into it knowing it’ll take me, say, three weeks to finish the book. That makes it more mentally manageable, and I don’t end up procrastinating.
Keith Law: That said, Gravity’s Rainbow is not worth your time.

Dave C: Do u think teams will run milb camps out of their Dominican camps and/or minor league affiliates?
Keith Law: No. There are multiple reasons why not.

Matt: I’m a 44 year old white guy. Yesterday I got pulled over for a broken taillight. Cop frisked me, asked if I had drugs and demanded he search my car. I refused and he called K9. K9 sniffed my car for 5 minutes and both let me go. I’m a stereotypical white dude with a pickup truck. I can’t even imagine what might have happened if I was a POC. Cops have way too much power. Something needs to be done.
Keith Law: We need a paradigm shift. I don’t like the phrase “defund the police” because I don’t think that’s the solution. Demilitarize the police. Shift to community policing models. Change hiring practices. But you’re never getting a majority of people to buy into a model with no police.

Jon: I read that Ed Howard was a possible Top 5 pick but for the HS season being entirely halted and therefore nobody seeing him play this year and a result was a lot of college prospects instead. Any truth to that or just Cubs homer-talk? What’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: Extreme homer talk. Arrant nonsense.

Alex: I can’t believe there haven’t been any Braves prospect questions so… has the ship sailed on Touki Toussaint and Bryse Wilson as starters? The 60-game season makes it hard to work in these kind of bubble players. Are they change of scenery guys?
Keith Law: Jeez, why are you giving up on them so quickly?

Doug: Would you rather have Hassell/Wilcox or Veen and an underslot 3rd rounder?
Keith Law: Hassell/Wilcox.

Brian: Quick math for the herd immunity crowd. The CDC estimates 70% of the population would need to have recovered from COVID-19 to get us there (assuming you’re permanently immune). That equates to roughly 200 million US citizens. At a death rate of .4% (which seems to be the bare minimum), you’d need to be okay with 800,000 deaths.
Keith Law: Well, there’s a pretty significant portion of the GOP that is okay with that.

Doug: Is WAR going to be adjusted based on the short season? Wouldn’t homers and strikeouts this year be worth 3 times more than a previous year?
Keith Law: No. You’ll just see WAR leaders of about 3-4 this year.

Dave C: any Idea how service time will work for shuttle team? Actually days on active roster?
Keith Law: I believe that’s correct.

Mattey: How do you think Utley will fare on first Hall of Fame ballot?
Keith Law: I’m just hopeful he’ll get the 5% to stay on it.

Guest: I just wanted to let you know that I really enjoy your work and for your reasoned opinions on a host of issues in addition to baseball. I don’t always agree with you, but I respect that your opinions are based on reason and conviction. Keep up the good work!
Keith Law: Thank you. I appreciate that.

Nick: I don’t read as much as I’d prefer, and when I do I have a bad habit of choosing dense literary masterpieces. They’re great, but very time consuming. Any advice on authors/genres that are better to build a constructive habit?
Keith Law: There are plenty of literary masterpieces that are on the shorter side – you may find you enjoy those, and still get the psychic value of reading such acknowledged classics, with less effort.

Dave C: When’s the last time u were as surprised during the draft as the Sox taking Nick York’s this year?
Keith Law: Hayden Simpson.

JP: So NASCAR released a photo of the noose in Bubba Wallace’s garage – and now all the pedants are out in full force – “AKSHUALLY, that’s not technically a noose!” I swear these are the same guys that love pointing out that “assault rifle” is not a real legal phrase after every school shooting. “Who gets to decide what an assault rifle is?!”
Keith Law: I mean, I suppose you can argue it wasn’t put there just then … but the word for that type of knot is a noose.

Chris: I think every post-draft analysis of a draft pick not taken in the top 10 is “if there was a full season, this guy could have been a top 10 pick, so this could be a steal”… for some reason, reading every writer/blogger of every team say that bugs me lol
Keith Law: It should bug you because it’s a fabrication.

Jabroni: Did you like the WS strategy of going big with picks 1&2 then punting 3,4 and 5?
Keith Law: I liked the strategy but not specifically those picks. I would have targeted other players with the same plan.

Todd: Do you trust the polls at all that show Biden comfortably ahead? How possible is it Biden wins the popular vote greater than Hillary did but loses the electoral college?
Keith Law: It’s going to come down to 3-4 states, no? Whoever wins PA, OH, MI, WI wins the election. I would guess most other states are locked up already.

Pat D: Disney is apparently going to re-design Splash Mountain.  I’m genuinely shocked.  Any thoughts on this pretty insignificant development?
Keith Law: I was just on that ride in December. It’s a little cringey. There’s nothing overtly racist about it, but if you know the genesis of the stories (or the movie based on them), you know what’s going on.
Keith Law: I’ll be sad if “Zip-a-dee-doo-dah” is gone, though. I loved that song when I was a kid.

Matt: If the batting leader at end of the year has something like a .517 batting average, will it count in record book for highest batting average of all time?
Keith Law: That’s not happening. Someone could hit .400, though, and I would argue that it shouldn’t be considered on the same level as Bill Terry/Ted Williams … but that we should also enjoy it for what it is. If Trout comes out hot and is hitting .400+ going into the last week, let’s make it a thing. Embrace the weirdness of the short season.

NL: I hate the DH, but understand the argument at least for this year. My question is why we worry about pitchers getting hurt running the bases. Seriously? An athlete running?
Keith Law: How about the part where pitchers are not good at hitting? This isn’t 1955. Pitchers are so much better today at pitching that asking them to hit when they get little time to practice and only face live pitching themselves every fifth day if that is a bit absurd.

Tyler: is Trump vs Joe “Weekend at Bernie’s” Biden the worst candidates to vote from in US history?  it’s even worse than Trump/Hillary, where I refused to vote for either.  I’m afraid I’ll do the same this year.
Keith Law: Check your privilege, Tyler. There is too much riding on this election to sit it out, even if you think it doesn’t affect you.

addoeh: Biden could win with Clinton states + FL and either AZ or NC.  He has more paths than just the Midwest route.
Keith Law: I guess that’s true, especially with Arizona and NC in COVID death spirals right now. I’m shocked there isn’t more of an effort to recall Ducey in AZ – the only recall effort I could find was from people arguing in April that he shouldn’t have locked down at all!

Dave C: Thoughts on the schedule this year? Seems weird that 1/3 of ur games are against teams that you aren’t competing against in ur League
Keith Law: I’m trying to just accept the weirdness for what it is. Getting worked up over details when the real goal is just to have a full season without anyone getting sick seems silly.

Sammy So-so: If Tyler Soderstrom doesn’t stick at catcher, does he still have the ceiling of an everyday player? Thanks.
Keith Law: Yes but he’ll need a position. Third base is at least the next stop.

Jason: How is drinking a cup of water or walking down a ramp considered newsworthy in 2020?
Keith Law: And it gets him praised as the “best president ever!” by the sycophants.

Tyler: “Check my privilege?”  You know nothing about me.  I am not white or rich, so what is my “privilege?”  All I know is when Biden was with Obama, all I got out of their presidency was losing my health insurance (that I was told I’d be able to keep) and am now paying about $200+ more a month than I did before their presidency.
Keith Law: I know that you have enough privilege to think about sitting out what is almost certainly the most important US election since the 1930s.

Gus: Is Bohm the Phillies opening day DH?
Keith Law: If Bohm makes the OD roster, Hoskins should be the DH.

John: Two drafts with really awful picks (besides the obvious with Rutschman) for Mike Elias. Time for O’s fans to worry about the direction?
Keith Law: I do not agree that they’ve had “awful” picks.
Keith Law: That’s an overreaction, at the least.

Howie: Hi Klaw, unless the value of a MLB franchise takes a hit due to pandemic owners should be able to get financing to mitigate short term cash flow concerns. Where I see this going though is the free agent market is much softer, concerns about collusion result in another work stoppage. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Free agent market will probably be softer for mid-tier FA and below. I don’t think that leads to collusion claims.

Jabroni: 88 days after the March agreement the owners finally agreed it was an agreement?? What the hell??
Keith Law: This is better framing than the bothsidesism I’m seeing everywhere. The owners spent 12 weeks trying to avoid the terms of the agreement they’d accepted in March, and ended up adhering to the agreement when the players said they expected the owners to live up to what they’d signed.

Ben: The “if you like your insurance you can keep it” line was was a commitment that Obamacare wouldn’t require any existing plans to fold.  Which it didn’t.
Keith Law: Yes, and if you want insurance or health care to cost less, you’re going to have to choose an entirely different model than the current one.

Pat D: To everyone complaining about not having a better choice than Biden:  do you really want Trump making a couple hundred more judicial appointments that will re-shape laws for the next 20-40 years?  I hope you don’t care about voting rights, abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, government transparency, checks on presidential power……do I need to go on?
Keith Law: Environmental laws. Or handling the next pandemic.

Nick: How would you compare Robert Hassell to Jarred Kelenic coming out of high school?
Keith Law: Kelenic was the clearly better prospect.

Pat: I don’t see how MLB is going to pull this off without doing a bubble like the NBA is doing. So many health variables with the way they’ve chosen to do it
Keith Law: I guess the counterargument is that the NBA’s bubble increases the odds of a bigger outbreak if one person gets sick, no?

TomBruno23: My draft-crazy friend, let’s call him Baby Foley, keeps telling me the Cardinals really scored with Ian Bedell. We read your recap on The Athletic about his back-end starter potential. Anything else to add?
Keith Law: No, nothing more. That’s what he is.

J5: Which starter will break out this year to a top of rotation starter?  Plesac?  Ross?  Others?
Keith Law: I’ll do some kind of breakouts piece in July, although it’ll obviously be a bit different than normal.

Dave C: If Marcus Stroman has a typical year how much would a qualifying offer ruin his Free Agent market?
Keith Law: He’d be near the top end of the market and I don’t think it’ll affect him. Mid-tier FA get killed by the comp picks.

Joe: Keith: Did this recent nonsense increase or decrease the odds of a work stoppage down the line?
Keith Law: It didn’t alter the odds, but made it clear that the odds were higher than we realized they were.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions and for reading. Stay safe everyone, and please, wear a mask, even if your little corner of the internet tells you otherwise. Do it for the elderly, the immune-compromised, the high-risk, even if you don’t feel like doing it for your friends and your family.

Starting at 1 pm ET. My latest mock draft is now up for The Athletic subscribers. My second book, The Inside Game, is out now in hardcover and would make a great Father’s Day gift!

Keith Law: Sorry, brief delay here as I have a radio hit I didn’t have written on my calendar. Feel free to leave questions and I’ll get to them as soon as I get back.
Keith Law: It’s a helping hand that makes you feel wonderfully bland. Klawchat.

Brad: How would compare Jordan Westburg to Logan Davidson, they’re both big SS with some questions about their hit tool?
Keith Law: Pretty different guys – I think Davidson is the better shortstop, better pure athlete, both guys with real questions about the bat though.

Andrew: What grade would you put on Austin Martin’s power and speed tools?
Keith Law: He’s a 55 runner, maybe 60 underway. I think he gets to 60 power in time given how hard he hits the ball.

UK Nick: Klaw, love your stuff and thanks so much for bringing the chats back… they fill a need at the moment. Have you ever read any of Bill Bryson’s books? Thoughts?
Keith Law: I haven’t, not for any particular reason though.

Raymond: Is there any chance that Lacy is available to the Jays at 5? Thinking maybe if the O’s take Gonzalez below slot, the Marlins take Martin or Veen and the Royals take whoever the Marlins don’t?
Keith Law: No.

Ben: I was planning on buying The Inside Game for my dad as a father’s day gift as a sort of low-stakes intro to bigger conversations about opening your mind and evidence-based thinking. Then, the last week happened, and we went from low-stakes intro conversations to high-stakes advanced conversations. He’ll still get that gift though, and I could still see the Inside Game as a helpful, low-stakes way to talk about bigger issues. Thanks for your stellar work on the book!
Keith Law: You’re welcome – thank you for buying it. I wish the stakes were lower than they are now.

Mike: Do you think the Red Sox are also in on the prep pitchers or do you think their focusing on prep position players only?
Keith Law: Zero chance they take a HS arm in the first round.

John: Where does Austin Martin fit best long-term defensively? Second?
Keith Law: I still think third base, assuming his throwing issue this February is resolved.

Geoff: How much money would owners really save by playing 50 games at a prorated salary as opposed to 82? What is really the point of this proposal other than not giving the union something close to what it wants?
Keith Law: I don’t know exactly how their TV/streaming revenue formula works, but I’d be shocked if they actually were better off financially with fewer games.
Keith Law: As in, I think the owners are lying.

Alan: Morning. Curious about Crochet not being present in your first round mock. Is the lack of track record causing the slide?
Keith Law: He only pitched once this spring, throwing an unannounced relief appearance on the final weekend that I was told only six scouts saw. He also got lit up by RHB last year. If he’s just a reliever, which is a real probability, then he’s not a first rounder.
Keith Law: Oh, also, he missed the first three weekends of the year for undisclosed reasons.

Guest: what is your take on top HS. players like Crews announcing that they are skipping the draft? What is the advantage to that rather than staying in and just turning down a deal if he doesn’t like it. Is there any benefit of just pulling your name from it?
Keith Law: No, not really. I find it a bit showy.

Dave: What’s your favourite foreign film (excluding well known ones, such as Parasite or Life is Beautiful)?
Keith Law: Amelie.
Keith Law: Burning is up there too.

Eric: I’m just so sad. I have upped my donations to senate and congressional candidates across the country, but even if we get trump and the gop out of power, it will not even come close to fixing the systemic issues of racism and oppression throughout the country. We all need to be better. Every single day.
Keith Law: I agree, especially that simply voting in better leaders will not solve systemic problems with roots that are 200+ years deep.

Ben: Klaw, thanks as always.  Haven’t really kept up to date with draft talk, just this week started reading some things you’ve put out, mock-wise, to familiarize myself.  Just curious, how do you think the abbreviated draft will affect team’s approach this year? Would it be silly to get away from best talent available over system needs?
Keith Law: Always BPA. Never draft for need. Now this year some teams may choose to be more conservative and rank college  talent over HS, or hitting over pitching, which is understandable given the state of the game and the economy, but I still wouldn’t draft for need.

Noah: Do you think we are tracking for next year will be more “normal” like full minor league season with fans? Or could this extend? It seems like other leagues are figuring it out so would we be able to progress that far by next February/March?
Keith Law: I don’t think there will be fans at games until there’s a vaccine. It simply won’t be safe to gather that many people with that kind of proximity.

Paul: No question here. Just hope we are all managing our anxiety levels in this escalating 2020.
Keith Law: Amen.

Chris: Hey Keith, in your latest mock, you had Boston taking a high-upside, higher risk HS player, whereas you previously had them taking maybe a lower-risk “safer” college arm that could end up in the bullpen. With a farm system as barren as theirs, shouldn’t they try to target a lot of these high-upside lottery tickets rather than going a safe route on players? Or do you think an organization can rebuild their farm by drafting safer college kids?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think rolling the dice on high-risk players is necessarily the right way to rebuild a system, because you could also easily end up with a lot of nothing. I prefer the mixed approach, like managing a portfolio, which also means you’ll get some players who move more quickly to the high minors and some who take more time.

Jamal: This years pitching, college in particular, seems much deeper than in the recent past. How would you compare this class to others?
Keith Law: I think it’s the best college draft class since 2011.

Jeremy: Thank you for the chat. In your first mock you had Canadian David Calabrese in the first. Where do you think he goes now.
Keith Law: I did not have him going in the first in any of my mocks so far.
Keith Law: He could go in the comp round A or early second.

Guest: You mentioned a clear Top 3 in your latest Mock draft.  If anyone is going to bump Torkelson, Martin or Lacy out of the top 3, who would it be?
Keith Law: I’ve heard Kjerstad more than Gonzales.

agirlhasnoname: The DJIA is within 10% of all-time highs, despite most companies having terrible revenues for a quarter or three or ten. Isn’t that a blueprint to show owners their valuations will remain high even with sustaining a total loss this year? Also, wouldn’t any financial institution rush to loan them money at near zero interest to cover outlays? Tired of owners crying poor and people eating it up with a spoon.
Keith Law: I find it absolutely unfathomable that MLB owners would be unable to borrow money to cover payrolls for scouts or minor leaguers. All the league has to do is play games and they bring in a ton of their revenues from broadcasting. Sports has generally been one of the most recession-proof industries there is. If you think MLB teams aren’t good credit risks, you think the world is headed for some sort of epic economic collapse.

Ryan: Why do we expect more from the New York Times?!? This is a publication that – and this is actually true – ran an excerpt of Mein Kampf in New York Times Magazine on June 22, 1941. This is in their archive.
Keith Law: I mean, it’s been 79 years. I would think they might have learned a thing or two.

Kyle: I enjoy the podcast but I have to ask, are those ads picked by The Athletic? There’s some interesting stuff being promoted that I can’t imagine you really endorse.
Keith Law: Yes, I don’t pick the ads. I have never used any of the products advertised on my show.

Guest: Royals likely to have a choice of Lacy, Veen, and Gonzalez. How would you rank them, and do you have a strong preference or is this a can’t go wrong with any of them situation?
Keith Law: Not sure Lacy is really getting to them. No way I take Gonzales over Veen, though, and it sounds like the Royals agree.

John: To what extent does a high school aged player need to go through Perfect Game, Five Tool etc.?  And if they do, at what age should they start?
Keith Law: Nobody needs to do that.

Chris: Any rumors on which prep players are looking for overslot deals, and how much they may be looking for?
Keith Law: I have heard some rumors, but would not repeat them here. It puts their collegiate eligibility at risk.

Robert: Manfred wouldn’t be dumb enough to actually mandate a 50 game season, right? Everyone must see through that.
Keith Law: I don’t think he can mandate one. It has to be negotiated.

Mark: Do you see any scenario where a team in the top 10 takes Crochet on a heavy underslot deal? Betting on the high ceiling and saving slot. Albeit giving up considerable safety/floor.
Keith Law: No. That would be very foolish.

Keith too: Keith, do you have a top 50, 100, 200 or anything for the draft available?
Keith Law: Tomorrow.

JO: Hey Klaw, As for just the bat, how does Torkelson compare to Andrew Vaughn?  I assume you have seen both in person. Does one seem to have more power than the other? Same for hit tool, approach and and barrel awareness. Or would you call them a push on hitting?  Thanks
Keith Law: Vaughn much better hitter. Torkelson has more power and could possibly play LF.

Don: Is there any benefit to post-TJ guys like Rodon and Kopech  just missing this entire 50 game season for more recovery?
Keith Law: I don’t think we can know that definitively, but there’s at least a belief based on some anecdotal evidence that guys taking a year off from pitching may be better off – post-TJ guys but also guys dealing with minor arm issues that didn’t require surgery.

Joe: Do you know what high school players have been connected to the Braves in the draft?
Keith Law: I listed at least one in the mock yesterday.

Marco: Do you think Reid Detmers has a chance to add velo to the FASTBALL and eventually  become a #2 SP?
Keith Law: No.

Josh: Based on your interactions with front office personnel, what is the general feeling about the number of undrafted free agents teams will pursue this year?  Are teams going to be selective and only bring in a few, or try and cast a wide net to make up for the later rounds being nixed?  I would think it is a small pool of players to begin with, just curious as to the approach.  Thanks!
Keith Law: Not very many. Who’s signing for $20K? College seniors and maybe a few older juniors?

John: Sad how many people think the flag only stands for the military, not things like equality or freedom.  Any books you would recommend to better understand systemic racism?
Keith Law: Others have posted better and more comprehensive lists … the two that come to mind that I’ve actually read are So You Want to Talk About Race and The Warmth of Other Suns. The former addresses systemic racism head-on; the latter explains its roots through three major stories from the Great Migration.

Garrett Crochet: No way I get past 22. I’m the Natsiest first round pick possibile.
Keith Law: No, there are Natsier picks available.

Chris: Are the rumors true that McMahon is falling because his fastball plays more like a sinker and analytical teams are out on him?
Keith Law: No. He’s not “falling.” I’m not sure where that even comes from.

Zzz: Any chance the White Sox could underslot Ed Howard at 11 and use those savings to get value with later picks?
Keith Law: I suppose there’s a chance but it’s not very likely.

Thomas: I’ve seen Michigan RHP Criswell as a top 100 draft prospect on some lists. Was curious if this is consistent with your board / if you had any thoughts on him.
Keith Law: He’ll be on my top 100. Too much reliever risk to be a top 50 guy.

Ridley: Who could possibly have guessed that a man who urged his supporters to rough up dissenters, asked police to not be too gentle with suspects, and who wanted to execute people who had been exonerated of crimes would turn out to be so enthusiastic about using force to put down protests? I guess there was no way to see it coming.
Keith Law: None whatsoever.

Jeb: What’s the argument against Bitsko in the first round? Cold weather, short history? Is signability an issue? I understand why he might not be a top-10 pick, but it seems like he’d be a pretty good gamble later in the first round based of stuff and age, at a minimum?
Keith Law: Didn’t pitch this spring and was barely scouted last year because he was still a 2021 guy until the fall.

addoeh: What do you make of some conservatives who only now, because of recent events, abandon the President?  If you had a friend who fell in this category, do you welcome them back to reality or ask what took them so long?  Initially, I think I’d do the former, since defeating him in Nov. is so important, but in the time I’ll ask the latter.
Keith Law: Exactly. For now, be glad they’ve come back to reality. Later you can excoriate them.

Ed: If Veen is gone how likely do you think Bitsko is to the Padres at 8 as under slot so they can spend on their next two picks?
Keith Law: No chance.
Keith Law: I don’t think the Padres are taking Veen anyway, and I see no chance they go HS arm at 8.

Robert: Are you disappointed with Trout’s lack of a response to ownership or current world affairs? I know he isn’t a public guy but we could really use his influence.
Keith Law: I … uh … what?

Jake: Are the owners doing us a favor by negotiating in bad faith? There’s no good reason for baseball to come back in the middle of a worsening pandemic and world-wide protests against police brutality, is there?
Keith Law: Money is the reason.

Todd Boss: Why is Justin Foscue suddenly getting 1st round mock draft buzz?  I don’t get it; a 6-foot guy who’s defensively challenged and might get pushed to an OF corner who doesn’t project for power?  What am I missing?
Keith Law: He wasn’t on my mock. He might go in the 20s but I tend to doubt it … I think Westburg would go first if any MSU kid goes in the first round.

Michael Conforto: How worried are you about a big COVID case spike from all the protests?
Keith Law: I worry about case spikes from states reopening too quickly. This is just the icing on the COVID-19 cake.

Josh L: Thoughts on NYT actually running the horrific Tom Cotton piece?
Keith Law: Reprehensible. Calling on the US military to attack our own citizens? What in the actual fuck? Plus that does absolutely nothing to address our national culture of white supremacy or police brutality or systemic racism – it just enforces them further.
Keith Law: We don’t need more militarized responses – we need to demilitarize the police.

Jason: How did the player remove himself from the draft? I remember that Brandon McElwain enrolled at South Carolina to play football, which meant he was no longer eligible, but this is different
Keith Law: There’s a newish process where you can request removal by writing to the Commissioner’s Office.

JO: Even though Emerson Hancock is dropping a few spots in many mock drafts, doesn’t he have the pitches to possibly turn out to be the best player picked in the 2020 draft? Is the reason for the drop due to poor performance in his first start more than anything else? Which would be SSS.
Keith Law: No, I don’t think he has the pitches to do that … his breaking stuff isn’t there.
Keith Law: He’s good, though.

Steve.: You talked about counting calories being the scientific way to weight loss and called keto a fad diet. Isn’t keto just a different scientific approach?
Keith Law: No. It’s more pseudoscientific than scientific. It’s also extremely hard to maintain over the long term, which makes it more of a fad diet than the kind of serious lifestyle change that leads to sustainable results.

Taylor: Do you find all of the social media support to be a bit hollow?  I agree with all of the many statements from any person/company/business/team with a twitter/instagram/facebook account, but isn’t it a little bit of grandstanding to have everyone come out with a statement?  I would prefer to hear what they are going to do versus just a blanket two paragraph statement.
Keith Law: Lego did it right. $4 million donation, pulled all advertising for police-related toys.

Chris: Is blaze Jordan going to be drafted high enough to sign or will he end up in college?
Keith Law: I think someone takes him high enough for him to sign, but he’s not really that good. It’s a bet on raw power he can’t get to with his current swing. Add him to the list of kids who were massively overhyped when they were 13 and didn’t turn out to be anything close to what they were supposed to be.

Geoff: I wish people would realize voting is step 1. It’s the minimum. It’s vital, so everyone should do it, but the ballot box isn’t a one-stop shop for solutions to centuries old systemic problems.
Keith Law: Yes, and no. Because the Republican Party has worked through legal and extralegal means to make it harder for POC to vote in this country, securing and restoring voting rights is step 1. Voting is then step 2.

Evan: If we assume Reid Detmers does not make any substantial improvement with his skill set (e.g. velo, repertoire quality, current level of ctl/cmd, etc. do not increase), what role does he currently project towards in the MLB? If he were to improve in any one area, which do you think is most likely and to what magnitude does that change his outlook?
Keith Law: That’s the kind of question I’ll answer in the top 100 tomorrow.

Don: How does Max Meyer compare to Carson Fulmer?
Keith Law: Not even remotely similar. Fulmer had a max-effort delivery with 40 command. Meyer has a good delivery, far more athleticism, and better command now projecting to above-average.

Luke: What are your thoughts on Robert Puason? Getting much less hype than Jasson. Who would you rather have long term?
Keith Law: Dominguez is the clearly better prospect of the two.

Craig: Putting aside the merits of the protests (and they are very clearly meritorious), why is it safe “to gather that many people with that kind of proximity” right now?  Why aren’t public health officials urging protesters to quarantine with other protesters?  If gathering in large groups is a public health risk, why aren’t public health officials noting that fact (while supporting the aims/goals of the protest) and urging countermeasures (self-quaranting, testing, telling immunocompromised people to support the protest in other ways, etc.)?
Keith Law: It’s not safe. However, freedom of assembly is one of our First Amendment rights. Freedom to go to a baseball game is not.

Johnny: As a clarification, do you view your mock draft as a prediction of what might happen or a ranking of what “should” happen with the best player available mindset?

If it’s a projection, who is the BPA for the M’s at 6? I want something to wistfully look back on when they go a wildly different direction
Keith Law: It’s a prediction. My opinion on players is not a factor.

Howey: I really appreciate the pieces published by The Athletic regarding the black experience in America, and the very active policing of “stick to sports” or “I got called a cracker once” comments below (If I don’t have to look at another one of Wil C.’s comments again I will be perfectly happy). Don’t know why this chat feels like the place to mention it, but I hope the higher-ups know it’s appreciated.
Keith Law: Well, I know the higher-ups read, so they’ll see this.

JB: Do you think Foscue is a 2B only?
Keith Law: Yes. Below average arm limits him.

Zachary: Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska: “When I saw General Mattis’ comments yesterday I felt like perhaps we are getting to a point where we can be more honest with the concerns that we might hold internally and have the courage of our own convictions to speak up.” Yes, a sitting Senator says she might be getting to a point where she can have the courage of her own convictions to speak up. Perhaps.
Keith Law: She has, like, five constituents. Is she just that afraid of pissing one of them off?

Eric: FYI: the flag is … a piece of cloth
Keith Law: That has been my opinion for a very long time. The idea of “respecting” a piece of fabric does not resonate with me. You may respect the country, or not. You may respect its institutions or its leaders, or not. Respecting an object of inorganic, inanimate material? No. Stand, sit, kneel, ignore as you wish. It’s just cloth.

Paul: Sorry – my question was cut off. What is your recommendation for ordinary people with limited financial means that want to donate with as much influence as possible. I’m assuming down ballot congressional races, buying from locally and minority owned businesses and donating to charities like Actblue. What else would you suggest?
Keith Law: My general rule for donating is to focus on local nonprofits with small, achievable goals that can be verified. “End world hunger!” sounds nice, but it’s never happening. “Feed five families in Wilmington” is doable. I give regularly to my local food pantry. I have given this week to the Ida B. Wells Society and to the Philadelphia Bail Fund, both of which get money directly to people who need it. Those are charities that work. I suppose if you’re a billionaire you can throw your (dark) money around in different ways, but for folks like us, stay small and local.

Kretin: I’ve read a lot about Meyer being slightly shorter than a pitcher should be. Is this a big concern for teams over his stuff and results?
Keith Law: He’s not, and it’s only a slight issue. I think if he were 6’3″ we’d talk about him at 1-1.

addoeh: Do you think a team with real WS expectations might take a few relievers that are ready now to increase their odds this year?  I’m thinking especially after the first round.
Keith Law: Yes.

Jason: How confident are you that Nick Gonzales will become an above-average regular (relative to your confidence for any draft prospects)? His lower EV’s scare me a bit.
Keith Law: I am not.

Kevin: Do you think front offices keep close tabs on what you (and people similar to you) are saying in chats like these or are they too busy focusing on their own info?
Keith Law: I know they read because sometimes they text me about them, although it’s more likely to be about a board game or a book or something.

Dave: The vibe on the west coast is that nobody is much excited about Biden, but will of course vote for him to get rid of Trump. What is the vibe in his home state of Delaware?
Keith Law: Most folks here revere the Bidens, and his visit to a black church this week was extremely well received.

Mr. Met: I’ve seen the Mets all over the place in mocks. Are they just in BPA mode without regard to position or college/hs?
Keith Law: That’s not true. I can’t and won’t speak to other mocks, but I think they go HS bat or college arm.

Long Island Is Racist: If you had told me in 2016 that under President Donald Trump we would be facing a recession, a horribly mishandled pandemic and “race riots” I would have absolutely believed you.
Keith Law: Long Island is racist, BTW. They kept voting in Peter King.
Keith Law: Not that one – the racist one.

Big Meat Pete: Did you see Pete Alonso’s posts on Instagram supporting Black Lives Matter? Strongly recommend looking for them. I was pleasantly surprised to see him take a stand.
Keith Law: I did, and yes, he did very well with those posts. Easy for someone in his position to say or do nothing.

Brad: Does Tom Ricketts truly think we are dumb? Saying 70% of their revenue is from the gate and crying poor.
Keith Law: He does think you’re dumb. You’ve seen members of mainstream media outlets repeat Trump’s lies without questioning or fact-checking them. I’m sure Tommy Boy thinks he can get away with the same.

Mary Jo: In a recent column on The Athletic, you showed why picking HS arms in the first round doesn’t frequently pay off. In a class full of good college talent, how many HS pitchers do you have in your top 20?
Keith Law: Rankings? I think 1.

Guest: You see that Trump may have committed voter fraud himself with his registration?
Keith Law: Yeah, I did, and it won’t go anywhere.

Guest: My understanding (as a Chemist), was that Keto is science-based.  In the era of science deniers that that you and I feel so strongly about, I’d appreciate if you cited your sources rather than just call something pseudo-science or fad without further evidence.  I am not doubting you, I’m just curious to see your side of the argument.
Keith Law: This is a chat. I’m not stopping everything to go link to multiple sources to back something up here as I would if I were writing a column or a book.

Mike: Any thoughts behind the mindset of police responding to protests about abuse with so much abuse?  And why hasn’t the MSM focused on it more?
Keith Law: It is far easier to write about violence than about peaceful protests.

Matt: I’m still trying to figure out why the National Anthem is played prior to sporting events in the first place.
Keith Law: If I were Commissioner, there would be no anthems and absolutely no GBA. You want a national pep rally? Fine. Go hold one on Main Street with 76 trombones. This is a sporting event, with fans and players from all over the world and from different faiths.

BVW: Are prep players MORE likely to skip this draft and head to college, since bonuses will be paid out gradually and the minor-league picture is hazy, or LESS likely, given that in college, they would suddenly be competing for playing time against nearly four full classes of upperclassmen?
Keith Law: More likely – but they may go to two-year colleges rather than four-year ones.

JeffinNZ: Colin Kaepernick insisted repeatedly in 2016 that he wouldn’t vote and others shouldn’t because he viewed Trump and Clinton as similarly racist. Leaving aside how ridiculous that is (is any American as racist as Trump?) and how that difference has been borne out, thoughts on what adults can do to get through to those with this mentality?
Keith Law: I don’t think you can get through to people who’ve decided that.

Gerald: Did you appreciate the comments of President Bush?  Many will discount everything he says because of things that happened while in office, but I do think he is generally a very good man that does love all people.
Keith Law: I appreciated his comments. I wish he’d acted on such sentiments when he had the power to do something. But I will take his comments now rather than silence.

Ben: … “the scale of losses across the league is biblical.”  If I had snorted into my coffee any harder, I may have drowned.
Keith Law: (whispers) They think we’re all stupid.

Hi: If Detmers isn’t available at  pick #11, who do the White Sox pivot to?
Keith Law: If he’s not there someone else from the top ten is there (by definition) so they might end up with Kjerstad or Cavalli.

Dean: Keith, when working for Toronto were you privy to their books or was that only shared with people in the finance department and top executives? Do you think the financial statements leaked from the Marlins several years ago were a complete picture?
Keith Law: I saw the books, yes. That’s why I’ve said for 14 years now that teams play with transfer pricing and pay themselves a pittance for broadcast rights, so the TV/radio entities take all the profits and the team itself appears to be losing money or making very little.

Tom: We obviously have to get out and vote, but when my choices in November are either a 70+ year old who can’t speak in complete or coherent sentences and has been accused of sexual assault, or a 70+ year old who can’t speak in complete or coherent sentences and has been accused of sexual assault, forgive me for not feeling real confident in how things will shape up for a while.
Keith Law: False equivalence.

Rick: If you were a ballplayer, would you want Scott Boras as your agent?
Keith Law: Yes. Why not?

Trevor: Do you think any goodwill is being earned by the teams/owners that are continuing to pay all staff and, especially, all minor leaguers?  Will there be any negative blowback from agents, or will they still always direct their clients to the highest dollar offer?
Keith Law: I think the goodwill is on the PR side. Maybe it means a few players re-up if the money is equal but I do not think any player or agent will turn down more money to stay with a team that paid them $400/week.

Dave: Over/Under 25% chance Cubs take a HS Pitcher in the 1st?
Keith Law: I’d say zero chance there.

JO: Speaking of Cavalli. Isn’t he going to be a reliever all the way given is command issues? Do you really think he can or should go in the first round? If so Isn’t it a gamble that his command will straighten up?
Keith Law: No, I do not see that at all with him. I think you overstate his command issues and underestimate the potential for an athlete like Cavalli, who was still hitting part-time last year, to improve in pro ball.

Andy: Baseball especially shouldn’t play the National Anthem, since a significant minority of the players aren’t from the US. I wonder how the Carlos Delgado situation would go now.
Keith Law: I wish more players would take a knee in baseball … it might put an end to any controversy around that practice.
Keith Law: (Non-troversy, really.)

David: Keith, looking forward to tomorrow’s list. Does Pete Crow-Armstrong project to develop enough power to make him an impact player? From what I’ve read, it seems that’s the element he’s missing from his game.
Keith Law: He could be an impact player between his glove and his bat, but I don’t think he ends up with plus power.

addoeh: Tom Cotton during 2015 Jade Helm – We can’t have the military attack citizens.

Tom Cotton today – Actually, that sounds like a good idea…
Keith Law: The capacity of the American right to ignore and contradict their own previous statements is bottomless.

Eric: My wife had to drive to Phoenix and back to LA and she surprised me with Pizzeria Bianco (which I never had before). She’s definitely a hall of famer
Keith Law: Agreed.

Mike: What do you think Mick Abel and Nick Bitsko’s floors are? Any chance either falls out of the top 20?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitsko fell to the comp round and was paid first-round money there. It’s a good outcome for him and would mean some team takes him with their second pick, mitigating their risk by presumably taking a bat or college arm with their first pick.

Aaron: Would the Braves go after a prep player who signs at slot in the 1st round if Pete Crow or Kelley are there? Or are they most definitely signing someone under slot with the 25th overall pick?
Keith Law: I never said anything about them going under slot at 25. That’s a fabrication. I don’t think PCA gets to their pick.

Ted: Thanks for the chat.   Since there are rumors that there may not be any milb this season, Any idea on where the newly drafted players will report once they’ve signed?
Keith Law: They may not, not for a little while. I suppose teams would eventually want players to come to their spring training facilities for an introduction of sorts, but there is no place for the kids to play now.

Nolan: How can people not see that the keto diet is a fad? The same diet emerges every ten years or so under a different name.
Keith Law: I remember having an argument with a co-worker on the Atkins diet when I was with Toronto … I said the same thing, it’s a fad diet, and not sustainable, and probably not very good for your body long-term.
Keith Law: Any “yo-yo” diets lead to rapid weight-loss fluctuations, and that is linked with higher risk of mortality.

Mike: Do you support the abolition of a policed state? I’ve been hearing that a lot lately, and am trying to picture what it would look like.
Keith Law: I don’t know exactly what that entails either, but I know I suppose demilitarizing the police. How much PPE could states, counties, and cities have bought with what they spent to buy military equipment for police?
Keith Law: And, again, who is harmed the most by overly aggressive, militarized police outfits? Communities of color. Not me, in my nice mostly-white suburb. I could sit here and say and do nothing, and the police would do what we expect police to do on a daily basis – keep us safe, maintain some basic sense of order. That is my privilege. I say something and donate money to relevant causes against my own interests. I do that because if people like me say and do nothing, then nothing will change in our lifetimes.
Keith Law: Thank you all for your questions and for your patience this week. I will be more active with chats next week, including a Q&A on the Athletic site and some sort of video chat the day of the draft itself (details TBD). Stay safe, but not silent.

Starting at noon ET. My latest mock draft is now up for subscribers to the Athletic, and my latest board game review, of Azul: Summer Pavilions, is now up at Paste. Don’t forget to check out my new book, The Inside Game, now out in hardcover!

Keith Law: I don’t come here for the exclusivity; I just come here for the view. Klawchat.

Guest: Every mock seems to connect the White Sox to Patrick Bailey. Is this well known throughout the industry or is everyone putting a round peg in a round hole?
Keith Law: I actually think it’s more the latter this time – he’d be the best college player on the board, they like him, catching is a weakness in the system anyway.

Dave: If an MLB owner is so cash strapped that he can’t pay his minor leaguers $400/week, it’s hard to make the argument that he has enough cash flow to remain an owner…
Keith Law: Right? Look who just furloughed scouts (ahead of the draft, FFS): the Angels, owned by Arte Moreno, net worth about $3 billion; and the A’s, majority owner John Fisher, net worth about $2 billion. Paying scouts an average of $40,000 for the half-year they might miss while furloughed would cost no more than $1 million; if these teams furloughed every employee making under $100K, we’d still be looking at under $10 million, total. That’s a rounding error to these owners. I don’t think any liberal Democrat could make a better argument for a wealth tax on billionaires than watching these owners squeeze blood from stones to protect the tenth digit in their personal fortunes.

Steve: As a hitter, how does Zac Veen compare to Riley Greene?
Keith Law: He doesn’t. Greene was far more bat-first, Veen is more all-around athlete with a very different swing.

Paul: To Scherzer’s point about owner’s opening up their books – he’s right isn’t he? No one really knows how much teams are making despite all the numbers we see floating around out there.
Keith Law: He’s absolutely right. And owners will *never* open their books short of a court order.

Mark: Do you use tomato paste when making tomato sauce? Is there an advantage to this?I have found that when adding this ingredient , it is a bit overpowering, although I recently read that paste needs to be caramelized at the beginning.Curious as to your thoughts.
Keith Law: Never. That’s not necessary for any Italian tomato-based sauce I know. It is useful in many other dishes, though.

Mike: Keith, thanks for being a voice of sanity in an era where science is under attack and facts can be disregarded by literally tens of millions of “adults.” Did you happen to read Doug Glanville’s piece on your former employer’s site today? If so, I’m interested in your take.
Keith Law: I have not, sorry.

Darren: Hi Keith. Who is your guilty pleasure band or artist? The one that doesn’t have meaningful articulate lyrics or impressive instrumentals, just something in the music that hits you in the feels.
Keith Law: It’s more a genre – ’80s music, whether it’s earlier new wave or later hair metal, hits me right in the nostalgia.

Jon: Keith, a friend of mine who is undergoing chemo for cancer did yoga in the park with forty people, no masks, in North Carolina this weekend. Are we just asking for a second round sooner than later?
Keith Law: Yes. It’s inevitable – but it won’t always happen the same way, and some areas will get lucky and avoid a second surge, which will lead more truthers to say the lockdowns didn’t help.

Trey: Moving to Philly area for work soon (the job is based in center city philly), and wondering your take on buying a house in NJ, PA, or DE? Any recommendations? I only know the NJ suburb area (haddonfield). Married w/ 18 month toddler. Thanks!
Keith Law: Delaware offers by far the lowest cost of living, especially in taxes (no sales tax, much lower property taxes esp. than NJ), but our public schools here don’t measure up to those even right over the state line in Garnet Valley, PA. I do think Delaware is a great place to live, but many parents here choose charter or private schools because of the lower funding for public education.

Darren: Hi Keith. We are trying to debate when is the right time to have parents over for dinner and a hug. Older people clearly having more risk, but if both parties have been home with the exception of food shopping, are we near the time we can have dinner? Ignoring the Wisconsin bar patrons and Southern beach goers, of those trying to stay safe, are you ready to go see a family member for dinner without masks and a big hug? Thanks for all you do. stay safe.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t just yet – my parents and my partner’s parents are all old enough to be high-risk, and I think the virus itself is too prevalent in our county here for me to safely assume I’m not going to carry it.

Ben: When Smart Baseball came out I was working for a state court judge. I lent him a copy and he subsequently lent it to about 50% of the judges on the bench in our district (he lent it to so many judges that he lost track of where it was and I never got it back). I don’t work for him any more, but I gifted him a copy of the Inside Game and he plans to send it around the bench again. Just thought you should know of your outsized influence on the judicial branch of Minnesota.
Keith Law: Thank you. I suppose no sleazy ADA will be able to convict anyone on the basis of RBIs in Minnesota now.

Mark W: Hey Keith, given that the public is regularly informed about specific players salaries, wouldn’t it be fair for the print media to prinkle in owners’ salaries?
Keith Law: It’s not their salaries that matter but their actual profitability – and I don’t mean on an income statement that can be manipulated with transfer pricing or other accounting tomfoolery. Show me the cash flow and we can talk.

Ed Howard’s shoulder: Am i a concern or have my medical been shared?
Keith Law: Howard had a shoulder issue last summer, but obviously didn’t play this spring so we don’t really know if he’s still affected. I won’t share medical info on players even if I have it, unless MLB itself has made such information public. e

Deke: What’s the “social media executive order” gonna look like?
Keith Law: Don’t talk bad words about the Dear Leader?

Greg: Are there still worries over Hancock’s medicals that could cause him to fall beyond the top 4-5 picks? I’d read somewhere that he was supposed to be providing info to teams, but doesn’t that seem like a scary idea (giving teams medical info that could hurt your draft stock)?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard those worries at all, and also you’re more or less required to provide those medicals now. If you don’t submit to the MLB MRI program, for one example, the team that drafts you can simply walk away after your physical without even having to offer you the 40% minimum. The Rays did that two years ago with Drew Rasmussen when his post-draft physical revealed that he needed a second Tommy John (which I’m sure had nothing to do with Pat Casey running him out there for long starts just 12-13 months off the first operation).

Benchy: Ever think MLB and MLPA will agree to trading draft picks? Think this could inject some life into a mostly dull television event?
Keith Law: Yes, but we need an impetus of some sort – neither side has a strong incentive to push for it.

John: Have you broken quarantine?
Keith Law: We aren’t quarantined in Delaware – we’ve been asked to stay home and self-isolate except for essential tasks like getting food or medications. I haven’t left the house for any destination without a mask, and I haven’t gone anywhere I wasn’t supposed to go. I do think we have had a few too many stores open, and we’re reopening too soon, but I’ve obeyed the Governor’s orders.

Canada: Naive Canadian here. Trump “seems” like an immoral, unethical choice. It seems common sense not to vote for him but that was proved wrong in 2016. Do you think a lot of the supporters are people who turned a blind eye to his personality traits, unethical standards and arrogance for the sake of “economic” promise?
Keith Law: Or for the sake of conservative judges who might help end reproductive rights in this country. I think that remains a major, maybe the major, issue driving single-issue voters.

Tom: I see why you’ve done so, but Doesn’t completely disassociating with Trump supporters only widen the gap in our country? My strategy is to find any kind of common ground with them, even if we disagree on most issues
Keith Law: Hannah Gadsby’s rant on anti-vaxxers in Douglas also captures my feelings on nearly anyone who’d still vote for Trump this year: You can’t change a closed mind.

Mark: Toronto has around $8M in slot between their first two picks combined (pick 5 and 42), given the uncertainty of this year’s draft, do you see a scenario where it would make sense to try and get two top 20 ranked players at $4M each (pushing someone down the draft to pick 42), versus one player at $6.2M and one at $1.8M? Basically spreading out the risk with two higher end players. Or is the top end of the draft no doubt enough that the smart thing is take the best available at 5 and then see who you get at 42? I guess the downside would be the risk on missing out on the player you try and push down to pick 42. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Because the top of the draft is so strong, I think this might result in them getting less total talent. Now, they might go to the three college arms who’ll probably be there (Meyer, Detmers, Hancock) and say “whoever is first to take $5 million is our pick.” Then you still have plenty of room to go way over at 42, where there will still be some pretty damn good HS players available, and can even push past the $3 million I’ve allotted in this scenario by going under slot later.

Kevin: If the Orioles decide to try to save $ at the second pick and pass on Martin and Lacy, who are the best/most likely targets for them to do so?
Keith Law: I mentioned that one name in the mock today. He’s probably the best position player option in that scenario.

Guest: Where would Baek Ho Kang (KBO KTW)  rank as an MLB prospect? He is the best hitter in KBO at 20….A 20 yo destroying high AAA players Isn’t paralleled anywhere on the globe. Right? ….call me crazy, but he is a top 10 MLB prospect to me.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t call you crazy, but you are mistaken. KBO is not equivalent to “high AAA.”

Chris: Damn Enter Key… Request for any further mocks: please, please link in the overview to your top draft prospect write-up. Would make reading up on these guys easier.
Keith Law: My updated ranking is not posted yet.

Kevin: Can you recommend any dishes for which dried beans are especially well suited? I panic-snagged a bunch (red, cannellini, black) at the grocery store this week and I’m a bit stumped.
Keith Law: I’ve made the Ottolenghi gigli with chickpeas recipe that you could make with dried beans you’ve soaked and cooked beforehand. The NY Times is obsessed with beans right now – they did a cheesy white bean-tomato bake that is very easy and delicious, especially with some crusty bread or over rice. Just soak the dried beans overnight, then cook about two hours on a strong simmer (or try the instant pot!) before using.

P.K.: Father’s Day gift ideas for myself to make me a better griller/cooker/kitchen user?
Keith Law: My gift guide for cooks from last December might help – but I think cooking skill is less about tools and more about knowledge. For example, I think I learned more about cooking from watching Good Eats and reading Ruhlman’s Twenty than any other single sources.

Rich: What is your opinion on remote learning and if it were to continue for another year (or 1/2 year) starting in the fall?  How much are our children being impacted in the long run?
Keith Law: It’s killing group-based projects and harming kids’ social development (I think … certainly not an expert here). But it seems like it might still be necessary in the fall.

Jim: Since you are a fan of 80’s music, wondering if you were a Queensrÿche fan? Not really metal but seems up your alley (and the messages hold up even today).
Keith Law: That is metal to me, at least, or to my teenaged self.

Eric: So Delaware has low taxes and a poor public education system? Weird.
Keith Law: Yes, that was my point. We underfund our schools. (There are a lot of people who think there’s too much waste in school administrations here, which drives voters to vote against budget overrides, but I don’t have nearly enough information to say whether that’s true. Should a school district’s superintendent make over $200K a year? People seem to get outraged at that raw figure, but I don’t think that is in and of itself a reasonable criticism.)

Patrick: With the extra home time, any new recipes or cooking techniques you are experimenting with? Broadening menu horizons with the family?
Keith Law: My partner has been using the Instant Pot a lot and I have been trying to learn it along with her (I used a pressure cooker for years, but this does seem easier if a bit smaller). I did decide a few weeks ago to try to make homemade English muffins for the first time, and now I can’t stop making them.

Clay: How likely is expansion in the next 5 years?
Keith Law: If the economy recovers enough to support it, I think it’s inevitable because owners will want that one-time cash infusion.

Chris: Do you think detmers has a chance to be anything better than a number 4 starting pitcher?
Keith Law: Yes. Could be an above league-average major league starter. I don’t think he could ever be an ace, just because his pure stuff isn’t there, but command like his can take you pretty far.

John: Hi Keith, it seems to mean many liberal politicians are missing an option on student loans.  The power of compounding interest makes those loans very difficult.  Its harder to pay $50k student loan than $50k car loan, can’t we just find a solution to lock interest while still paying the loan value.  It would be less burden on tax payers but also ease some of the burden on borrowers
Keith Law: Is it wrong of me to not feel much concern for borrowers? Student loans are a racket. The ease with which people can borrow for education allows colleges to raise tuition far faster than the rate of inflation, and their nonprofit status somehow lets them do so without scrutiny as long as they spend that money on things like fancy new buildings. Kill student loans and the tuition bubble will pop.

Sad Baseball Fan: On a scale of 1-10, how optimistic are you of a season being played?
Keith Law: Maybe a 6. I tend to think when there’s this much money at stake that the two sides will find a solution.
Keith Law: Nobody has a financial incentive to cancel the season. They’d have to be forced to do so by outside circumstances.

Brian: What would be the biggest real reason for the owners not to let the players look at their books (a pretty fair trade off for anyone who is looking at a drastic pay cut)? Is it because they don’t want the players to how profitable they really are or is there potential chicanery with how certain revenue streams are classified?
Keith Law: Yes.

Darren: So considering your love for the 80s, have you starting showing your daughter John Hughes films? He helped make the 80s so amazing with movies and music. If so did you have an order of which ones first? Our boys have seen Home Alone so far, that’s it of his movies.
Keith Law: No, we’ve been hitting classic movies instead, and calling it an education.

Rom: Do you think Casey Martin’s hit tool can be improved through pro coaching/development? The rest of his skill set suggests that he has first round talent.
Keith Law: He’s not a first round talent. I don’t think he’s going to hit like he’d need to.

Turkey: Any recommendations for ground turkey? Wife and I are over meatballs and meat sauce with pasta.
Keith Law: Ground turkey works great in tacos if you make sure you use enough oil when cooking it and don’t overcook it. It’s too lean to just leave in the pan like you would ground beef/pork. Season it earlier … and that is a recipe for which you use tomato paste.

Moe Mentum: Since you’ve been ranking prospects, which actual 1-1 draft pick was furthest down on your own list?
Keith Law: Pretty sure it’s Moniak.

addoeh: How many owners are going to have to host bake sales, lemonade stands, and car washes this week so the can scrounge up enough money to pay their draft picks?  Or will they just ask the government for a bailout?
Keith Law: Oh you know there will be a bailout. Some sort of “subsidy” to help restart baseball to increase public confidence or whatever.

Tar Heel: I haven’t seen Aaron Sabato as a projected 1st round pick except for you. Was that based on your intel from industry sources and do you think his skills merit a 1st round selection? Thanks.
Keith Law: I don’t have any players listed in this mock who weren’t mentioned to me as first-round candidates by industry sources.

Clay: Thoughts on keto? I’ve got about 60 lbs to lose and would like something that can help.
Keith Law: No fad diets for me. I don’t think they work and they’re not really based on science. It seems like the only real way to lose weight sustainably is to reduce your daily caloric intake and exercise more.

TheSloth: Have you streamed any of the Dinner & A Movie Phish shows?
Keith Law: A couple. We’ve missed the last few, this week because we did a Douglas viewing party. (I thought the first half was amusing, but not really funny, but when she started putting art up on the screen it was hilarious.)

Mason: Dillon Dingler slipping for you a bit?
Keith Law: No.

foolsgold: Why do conservative Americans mistrust science so much?  Who is getting benefit from this?
Keith Law: If you read Jane Mayer’s Dark Money, you’ll get a good sense of who is funding the efforts to undermine our trust in science – and frankly that’s been helped by the centuries-long campaign by several organized religions to do the same. When science says that something in your sacred text is false (e.g., we know that all life on earth evolved from a single common ancestor), you attack the science, obviously.

Tanner Burns: Dear Keith did I say something to offend you and the other prospect writers?  I seem to be falling off of your draft boards but I haven’t played baseball in months.
Keith Law: Falling off? No. If teams don’t seem likely to take a player in the first round, he won’t appear on my mock.

Jennifer: For the next six years, Dante Bichette Jr or Gavin Lux?
Keith Law: I assume you meant Bo Bichette. I think both are stars. I’d probably take Lux though. Better defender.

Hank: If people in Delaware are concerned over a superintendent making $200k a year, they should avoid NYC suburbs, where ours makes double that, and in my opinion, is worth every penny.
Keith Law: My lay opinion is that if the schools are doing what I ask of them, I’m more than fine with paying higher taxes and seeing well-paid administrators.

Jim: Keith, on the English muffins, I especially recommend using sourdough discard.  And do you d oven or griddle?  Rings or free-form?
Keith Law: I don’t have a starter and don’t feel like dealing with one. I griddle them with rings.

Joe: Do you think Gore and/or Patino are already one of the Padres 5/6 best starters? With the Padres recent habits of ignoring service time concerns, if there’s a season we should see them both plenty?
Keith Law: Both should be on whatever taxi squad exists and both should appear if the Padres are doing well in the shortened season and want to boost their playoff chances.

Clay: Do you believe that college athletes could be handled like Olympians? Allow them to seek endorsements that would not change their amateur status, thus avoiding title IX issues but allowing them to get paid while in school.
Keith Law: I think college athletes should be handled like adults who are allowed to make financial decisions for themselves and shop their labor product to different employers.

John: RE student loans: isn’t that the point that the colleges are raising tuition beyond a reasonable rate because they can but the economics still say a college degree is worth it.  Until that dynamic flips it is likely to continue but definitely agree that the loans are a racket
Keith Law: That’s not really clear, though.

Noah: Hey Klaw, Have any thoughts on the popularity of baseball cards. Jasson Dominguez is the hot one out now. Going for $30 to $70 just for a base card. Craziness or will he be worth it? (I already have yours)
Keith Law: Not worth it.

Ridley: Am I wrong to think that Twitter put themselves in this situation by exempting the President from their terms of service? Had they just followed their own rules, his account would have been banned years ago.

Also, have you noticed that he always uses the word “unfair” to describe any attempt to hold him or his accountable?
Keith Law: Yes, you are correct.

nickolai: Our girls are now at the age where we read Harry Potter to them every night (as I know you did with your daughter).  It’s been fantastic overall.  Our younger daughter asked if Voldemort was ‘always bad’  or if he was at some point good then turned bad due to some trauma or experience.  Probably reading into it, but to me the Q behind the Q seems to be whether the ‘goodness’ or ‘badness’ of individuals is innate or developed.  Unsure if this ever came up with you/your girl, but curious how you answered (or would answer) that question.
Keith Law: Never came up here, but I think book 6 gets into that – at least, Rowling tries to tackle it in the case of Tom Riddle.
Keith Law: FWIW, I think she does a pretty good job.

Yoyo: Morning. Almost all mocks have the White Sox on Bailey. Callis noted they are also on all sorts of prep bats/arms which would be a different direction than usual. Does Mike Shirley taking over perhaps change the draft strategy this year?
Keith Law: The draft strategy there has always been set from above. I don’t think that has changed – and if they’re on prep guys I would bet on it happening in rounds 2-3 rather than round 1.

Pat D: On a scale of 1-10 how ironic is it that Trump being mildly fact-checked on social media is the event that makes him suddenly support regulation?  Gotta be close to 100, right?
Keith Law: My ironymeter broke.

Shawn: Hey Keith, Thanks for doing these chats as always. Who do you have the Mets taking at 19 in your latest mock draft & Why
Keith Law: Link is up top.

Clay: Long term, who has the higher ceiling Pache or Waters?
Keith Law: Pache for me. The defensive value gives him a higher ceiling and more potential for longevity.

Brad: Hi Keith – does Tork project to be a truly generational bat in your opinion?
Keith Law: No, but I think he’s good.

Bob: Do you have your personal top 50/100 draft prospects on the Athletic ? Or still trying to gather info for reports ? Thanks
Keith Law: That will go up next week (a top 100).

xxx(yyy): any new recipes make it into your quarantine rotation?
Keith Law: My partner has found a bunch of new ones, largely from the NY Times cooking section. That turmeric chicken one was great. There was a miso-braised chicken thigh dish that was utterly amazing, so good I later cooked chicken thighs the same way just to shred the meat into something else.

Pat D: How soon before we start seeing all the editorials about how greedy the players are, never mind that they’d be taking more risk than just normal baseball injuries if/when they play?  Or do you think they’ll find a compromise before it gets there?
Keith Law: Very soon. I’m surprised it hasn’t started

JT: How did they not fire teargas and beanbags at the armed militias who stormed state legislatures?
Keith Law: The police were told “don’t fire if you see the white of their skin.”

Evan: Cavalli seems to be a player with what might appear to be multiple ML pitches, enough strikes, and a non-frightening injury history. Other than perhaps track record, what’s keeping him out of the top 10 ranked amateurs?
Keith Law: Track record is important. Maybe a full spring makes him a top 10 guy.

John: Do you think a year off could cause a big wash out of older pitchers? Seems like a decent amout of them never make it back after modest lay-offs for minor injuries.
Keith Law: Flip side is that a year off might help some older guys regain a little velocity or recover more fully from injuries than they might have.

Greg: Would Luke Little be one of the more fun midround picks for a team betting on pure upide? Guys that big who throw that hard have to be rare (even if his command will make a big league role unlikely).
Keith Law: I will believe Luke Little throws that hard when I see him do it on a mound, outside, with a hitter in the box.

Chris: Hey Keith.  I idolized Roy Halladay growing up and the recent article about him on ESPN was difficult to read.  While you were in Toronto did you ever see any warning signs from Doc at all?  Thank you.
Keith Law: No, but I made it a point not to spend too much time in the clubhouse – it was the players’ space and after my first year I realized I shouldn’t be intruding. I did talk to Doc once at length, and a few times to say hi, but would not say I really knew him well.

Asif: How do you compare Nick Loftin to Kevin Newman when he was drafted in 2015? It appears that they have similar skill sets.
Keith Law: Similar skill sets for sure although Newman was a much better runner at the time.

Mike: I don’t get what MLB is doing with their minor league players.  Selfishly they should be worried about their development
Keith Law: My one criticism here is that if you’re not paying your minor leaguers they should have the right to become free agents if they wish.
Keith Law: You don’t get indefinite rights to someone’s employment when you’re not paying them. There’s a word for that and it’s not a nice one.

Trey: How to help current student loaners? If Dems take WH and congress, maybe lower rate to 2% (idea floated around)? Any other ideas? it’s a 1.6T issue and having far reaching econ damage.
Keith Law: They could suspend all interest payments for two years as a starting point.

Ryan: When a prospect is a “bust” the tendency is to act like he was destined to fail. Like the team simply picked the wrong guy. Seems to me like we underrate chance and development. Like, if Mark Appel ended up in a different system with different coaches and teammates and strategies, maybe he’d be an OK major leaguer now. Flip it too: there are good players who would’ve busted out in other orgs. Any thoughts on “picked the wrong guy” vs. “didn’t develop him”?
Keith Law: You’re absolutely right – it can be either of those things or just bad luck. Brady Aiken’s elbow was just bad luck. But maybe Chris Sale isn’t the Sale we know if the White Sox don’t take him and help tweak his delivery … or maybe some pitchers who never found that third pitch would have been better if the White Sox had taken them and tried to teach them cutters or different slider grips.

Mike: MLB says they will lose 640k for each game without fans. Would you favor them being allowed to sell 64 seats a game for 10k each?
Keith Law: I don’t believe them, but I think that would be feasible, if local authorities allowed it.

Cole: Would Clayton Beeter crack the top 10 if he had maintained his performance/stuff from the first few weeks into a whole season?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, not with the very high slot and lack of strike-throwing before this year.

Matt: The Fed gave Wall Street $1.5 trillion after a bad week. They can forgive student loans.
Keith Law: Think of how much they could do for consumers, but won’t, because consumers don’t give to campaigns the way banks and big industries do.

Crowded House: Don’t dream it’s over is the best song of the 80’s
Keith Law: No, New Order’s True Faith is.

Mike: I respect so much of what you say on baseball, food and science but think your music views are the worst.  Anyone you follow closely who you disagree with so much on something important to you even if trivial in the big picture?  Don’t say pie v. cake.
Keith Law: It’s okay. Some day you’ll realize I’m right about music too!
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – I have some English muffins to cook. Thank you all for your questions and for reading. Check out the mock draft I linked above, and by the way, my new book The Inside Game is a great Father’s Day gift according to the New York Times, Forbes, Raise, and others too! Stay safe everyone.

Subscribers to The Athletic can see my redraft of the 2010 class as well as my recap of the first-round misses from that year.

The New York Times just named my new book, The Inside Game, one of their six recommended sports reads for this summer. You can buy my book at bookshop.org or wherever fine books are sold.

Keith Law: You were only waiting for this moment to arise. Klawchat.

addoeh: Is there any backstory to how the Cubs drafted Hayden Simpson?
Keith Law: I think this was the most common question on my 2010 redraft. The short version, from my memory, was that their scouting director, Tim Wilken – who, to his credit, has been very open with everyone about how that pick went awry – got rained out on his original plans for a game late that spring, and ended up at Southern Arkansas’ playoff game where Simpson had one of the best outings of his life, up to 95 with command and feel. With nobody they really loved for that pick, Wilken took the player he’d seen pitch so well himself. That’s a process error, of course, especially since they would almost certainly have been able to take Simpson in the second round if they absolutely wanted him.  What we will never know is if Simpson’s velocity spike that spring was just a fluke, or if he’d really gained something that never came back after he caught mono.
Keith Law: That 2010 first round was the worst for me to cover, because I could not for the life of me remember who Simpson was when he was taken, and then the Yanks took another player way off my top 100 (Culver). That seldom happens now.

TomBruno23: Are you on Goodreads? Can we be friends?
Keith Law: I’m not on Goodreads – I prefer to keep all my book content on my own site.

Andy: You need to convert your daughter to team hot fruit.
Keith Law: She loves pie, but her birthday’s a bit early for any local fruit other than strawberry, which I think is best served with shortcakes or just on its own.

Deke: Starting to think summer is going to be a pretty dramatic influencer on how the pandemic goes, or too early to say?
Keith Law: I don’t think I know nearly enough to answer that.

Kevin: In your book you discuss the high risk of drafting high school pitchers in the first round. Is there any less risk with high school lefties vs righties?
Keith Law: There wasn’t enough data to answer that question.

Michael: An article (ESPN) today stated that the best option for the Phillies in the case of a Universal DH would be Alec Bohm.  But wouldn’t a better option be Hoskins at DH and Bohm at first?
Keith Law: Absolutely. Bohm would be a better defender at 1b than Hoskins.

Michael: Hey Keith- trying to get a handle on the 20-80 rating scale.  Does it mean that a player with a 50 grade is league average?  And if a player had 50 grades across the board (eye, power, defense, etc.) would he be expected to have a WAR of 0.0?  I’m guessing not, but just trying to get a better understanding of what the numbers mean.  Thanks!
Keith Law: A 50 is major league average; a player with all 50s should be a regular, not a replacement-level player (WAR 0).

Harrisburg Hal: I appreciate the podcast that introduced me to Sagrada.  I’ve been playing the app for a few weeks now and could see buying the physical game to play with my kids who like Azul so much.  I know you don’t eat red meat any longer.  Do you miss carnitas?
Keith Law: I don’t eat beef or lamb, but I still eat pork in limited quantities. I probably have carnitas in some form 2 or 3 times a year. I should probably give up all red meat, but eating pork just occasionally – and the most enjoyable cuts at that, like pork shoulder or belly – seems to satisfy my desire for it without making me feel sick. (It seems that the metabolic disorder I share with my daughter makes red meat especially tough for us to digest.)

Chuck: This feels like the longest Superbowl pregame show ever, and I checked out a long time ago. Can we just write off sports in 2020 and come back strong in 2021? Wake me when it’s over.
Keith Law: If we do that, some aspects won’t come back. Minor league baseball is going to be crushed by a lost season, for example.

Johnny: Doctors wear N95 filtration face masks and are able to treat covid-patients directly without contracting.  There are plenty of KN95 face masks available to purchase everywhere online (both have 95% filtration) for around $1-$3.  Can’t the general public wear these KN95 face masks outside their home and open up the states?  There are many Asian countries that mandate this and have successfully opened up for business.  Why can’t we follow what other countries are doing?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to this, but I will say we can’t even get everyone to wear cloth masks to go to the grocery store without some gun-clutching loon shouting “FREEDOM!”

Mike: Of course the worst first round pick you have seen belongs to the Cubs (pre-Theo/Jed). As a Cubs fan it always felt like they always had prospects they expected big things from (e.g. Colvin, Patterson) that never panned out. I understand that teams are going to pump up their guys but it seems like it was an issue in the organization at the time. What was the cause of this? Bad scouting, bad strategy, etc.?
Keith Law: They definitely drafted more for tools than skills or performance for a long time, hitting big on a few (Javy Baez really was in that mold, but he got much better in pro ball) and whiffing on the majority (Brett Jackson!). But Colvin wasn’t even that toolsy, just as Simpson wasn’t; some picks were just the results of their unique process and I don’t want to generalize too much without knowing what led them to take those players – Colvin and Corey Patterson were taken by two different regimes and couldn’t be less similar as players.

Donny: Favorite film by the Coen Brothers? What are your thoughts overall on them?
Keith Law: If you’re asking me which one I’d most want to watch right now, that’s The Big Lebowski. I don’t know if that’s really their ‘best,’ if we’re talking critical value rather than sheer entertainment.

Mike: Hi Keith – do you plan on updating or expanding your draft rankings prior to the draft?
Keith Law: Yes, of course.

Mike: Holy crap you could have built a super team in 2010 with players not drafted in round 1
Keith Law: This happens often, but 2010 seems to have been especially bad for the first round.

John: For all of the various plans that require seemingly impossible steps/benchmarks to meet, can we really go back to having sports before there is a vaccine widely available?
Keith Law: Sports, yes. Fans in stands, probably not. And even then, we have enough people who are likely to refuse or hesitate on a COVID-19 vaccine that, barring mandatory vaccinations (which, as a result of a flood of right-wing judicial appointments in the last 40 months, ain’t likely), it may still not be safe to allow fans after a vaccine is introduced.

Johnny: Instead of giving everyone $1200, shouldn’t the gov’t prop up banks so that the banks can defer mortgages and landlords can def rent?  I feel that the gov’t continues to waste so much money while so many continue to default on loans
Keith Law: Bailing out the banks didn’t do a whole lot for Americans last time around.

Mike: No real question today.  Just a thanks for your pro-science stance and posting from a biochemist
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I think it’s an obligation for anyone with a platform, given how many anti-science people are willing to use their podiums to spread disinformation and outright falsehoods.

Perks of Being a …: Which player has more upside, Reid Detmers or Nick Gonzales? Seems pretty similar, with one inherently coming with more risk.
Keith Law: If Detmers really does end up with 70 command, it’s him. More risk because he’s a pitcher, though.

Darren: Are there ‘risers’ or ‘fallers’ in this year?  What is affecting draft position towards the top of the draft?
Keith Law: I don’t think players are rising or falling except around signability.

Frank: Is Zac Veen a similar caliber prospect compared to last year’s top HS prospect, Riley Greene? Does he have more upside due to his power potential?
Keith Law: I like Veen’s overall package of athleticism and projection better, but Greene was a better hitter at the same age.

Cashliam: Have you seen the Spiel Des Jahres nominees ? How many have you played?
Keith Law: For those who haven’t seen, the nominees for the Spiel des Jahres are My City, Nova Luna, and Pictures; while the nominees for the Kennerspiel des Jahres (connoisseur’s game of the year) are Cartographers, The Crew, and King’s Dilemma. I have The Crew but haven’t played it yet, and I haven’t played any of the others; I can tell you I have zero interest in Pictures, which isn’t my type of game at all.

Mike: A five round draft favours big market teams and those who recruit better doesn’t it?  Other than cost reduction why would some of the teams want to do this??
Keith Law: Does it? I don’t agree that it favors big market teams at all.

Howey: Seems like college pitchers are taking up more of the mid/late first round talk than most years. Is this due to the ease of scouting with limited data, a lack of chance for high school position player breakouts, or just how the talent spread in general?
Keith Law: This is an especially good college pitching year anyway, and the circumstances surrounding this year’s draft are pushing teams to go conservative anyway.

Guest: Congratulations on the NYT recommendation! Hard work pays off??
Keith Law: Thank you! I’m really thrilled that the response to The Inside Game has been so positive. I wanted this book to reach more than baseball fans, and I wouldn’t be able to do that without help from folks outside of our little bubble.

Doug: Should teams put all their top prospects (CJ Abrams for example) on their taxi squads no matter their proximity to the MLB just so they have some semblance of professional instruction?
Keith Law: I think so. I would, at least.

Cavan Biggio: In my debut last year, I had a wOBA of 403 vs fastballs, 265 vs breaking, and 211 vs changeups.  Are these splits fixable or perhaps a flaw in my approach/swing right now?
Keith Law: Also, IIRC, that wOBA on fastballs fell apart with higher velocity – wasn’t Biggio awful on above-average or better FB? There’s nothing fixable here; he wasn’t a prospect before last season and a hot September doesn’t change that.

Punk in Drublic: The 50 50 revenue split is such an awful deal for the players for so many reasons (already negotiated, they don’t get more when owners have a great revenue year, and teams that own their cable networks pay their own team below market rates to funnel profits to the cable network).  Why won’t anyone come out in newspapers, ESPN, etc and say so?  All we hear are blowhards saying players must take whatever they get told to accept.  Basically being the owners PR team.
Keith Law: I mean, that’s the entire history of the baseball media, right? It’s the #1 argument I see for the union pushing to allow more media access to players, when they typically want less. That’s your direct line to get your side of the story to journalists. Otherwise, we in the media hear far more from the management side of things.

JG: I’m a minority in my mid-50s.  Even though I’ve lived my entire life in Texas, I have never been the victim of an act of overt racism.  I sincerely thought the country had turned an important page when Obama was elected.  12 years later it feels almost hopeless.  These Trumpers aren’t going anywhere.  You can almost feel the anger that’s going to be unleashed if he loses.
Keith Law: If there’s any glimmer of hope, it’s that the population of the U.S. has been getting more diverse over time, and will continue to do so.

Bob: Keith: regarding trump, he is exhausting. But I feel like I need to read his twitter feed, listen to rallies/briefings to get the full context unedited.  Newest example is “per capita” bull shit from yesterday.  Do you still listen read his nonsense or are you too the point – the evidence is there – I don’t need to read or hear from him anymore.  Cake looked great by the way – Happy Birthday to your daughter!
Keith Law: I have never followed his accounts, since I get enough of him secondhand through other media people I follow.

Eh! Steve!: I’m depressed that we’ve managed to turn a pandemic into yet another culture war.  Is there any hope for stopping the polarization of everything?
Keith Law: Nope.
Keith Law: There is profit in polarization, and that will keep it around forever.

Joe: If minor league contraction happens will teams have the option to have short season teams outside of the complex leagues? Any word on the cap for number of complex teams?
Keith Law: My understanding was no, but I hope that changes.
Keith Law: Why shouldn’t some teams have the option to keep operating short-season clubs?

Trevor: KLaw, enjoyed your 2010 redraft article and personally root for late rounds picks like Eaton and Dickerson. I’m not disputing Simmons at 1.1, but I don’t think the GMs would redraft him 1.1 considering they themselves have locked up the next 5 guys on your list for a combined $1.1B
Keith Law: Unfair comparison, since Simmons signed a seven year extension as a 1+ player.

Tom: Do you think Austin Wells is a first round talent?
Keith Law: I do not. Second round, for sure.

Joe: Any sci-fi/fantasy book recommendations? I just read Left Hand of Darkness and really enjoyed it. Farenheight 451 is already on my list.
Keith Law: Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell. The Dispossessed. Among Others. The Fifth Season. An Unkindness of Ghosts. American Gods. To Say Nothing of the Dog.

W.E.B. DuBois: Gut feeling: do we get a 2020 season?
Keith Law: Yes, my gut feeling is they force one through.

Trevor: O/U: The 2010 draft class produces 0.5 HOFers?
Keith Law: Over.

Larry: Do you have any feel for how the UDFA portion could go? Will it just be mostly seniors and that’s it? Also, how do you anticipate players deciding where to sign? If 20k is the max they can get anywhere, would they just sign with the team they root for? I’d think that could benefit teams like Atlanta with a large, talented region where most of their fans live.
Keith Law: Senior signs and not much more, I think. I would at least advise such players to consider whether the teams trying to sign them offer them credible paths to the majors. A decent shortstop prospect might not want to sign with the Rays or Padres, given who else they have.

Mike: I’d nearly forgotten the Chad Jenkins/Deck McGuire fiascos…add in Jeff Hoffman, Jon Harris etc and the Jays record on college arms is pretty bad…isn’t that odd for “safer” type picks?
Keith Law: Yes, their process – whatever it was – didn’t seem to identify the right college pitchers, in hindsight. Jenkins is the only one who seemed like a huge reach at the time. I do think Hoffman would have fared worse today because his fastball plays down so much, but at the time it was just “tremendous athlete with big velocity.”

Pat: What’s your opinion of Kyle Harrison? You think he would have a chance of being a first rounder if the high school season played out?
Keith Law: I have never heard that about him.

Amir: Do you think that someone like Nick Loftin who’s deemed to be “safe” and has a “high floor” would be more appealing than in past drafts with the less in-game looks and performance data to assess prospects standings in the draft?
Keith Law: Not a first-rounder, but yes, I think he’ll go higher in this draft than he would have in a year with a typical spring season.

Chris: Do you think more states will allow for mail-in voting this year?  I am trepidatious about going to the polls, but will refuse to skip voting this November.  My state does not currently allow mail-in voting, and I fear that the guess-which party-run legislature and governor will nix any such proposal because it will not work in their favor.  What say you?
Keith Law: I hope so, but are there logistical issues with this? Do states have to have the infrastructure to handle thousands or even millions of mail-in ballots?
Keith Law: Delaware is allowing anyone to register as “sick” or “disabled” to vote via mail, under an emergency order this year. I do hope that this at least leads to a permanent change here where early voting is enabled.

Larry: Any rumored signability issues with HS top 150ish guys?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s always the case.

Gary: How likely is Jack Leftwich to be taken in the top five rounds?
Keith Law: Last I heard was that it’s more likely he returns to school as he wouldn’t go high enough to come out.

Ridley: So, the Senate Majority Leader said that he would no extension on the $600/week payments because people are choosing to stay home instead of work, and that his #1 priority was to insure that workers who caught COVID wouldn’t be able to sue.

Two questions: Instead “staying home instead of working” a feature and not a bug during a quarantine? And, while we sure seem to love “job creators” in this country, there’s not a lot of love for the “job doers”, is there?
Keith Law: If I were running for any federal office as a Democrat, I would run ads that just show quotes from McConnell, Graham, etc. opposing extending those payments.

Miles Roby: Have you read Empire Falls by Richard Russo? If so, do you recommend?
Keith Law: Yes, I read it in 2007 and loved it so much I went on to read everything else he’s ever written.

Gary: If most teams are leaning conservative this year, doesn’t this set up as a good time to zig and go HS upside?
Keith Law: Sort of. The players have to be there, and they have to be willing to sign.

Tom: Randomly thought about how good Corbin Martin was in the minors before TJ, think he can get healthy and be a really solid starter in 2021?
Keith Law: I do.

Robert: Could the lack of a minor league season have an impact on major league roster decisions?  For example the White Sox with Kopech and Madrigal, could there be more of a willingness to start service time clocks rather than lose a year of development?
Keith Law: There should be.
Keith Law: Any team that might contend this year should be willing to call up any prospect who could help.

Chris: Should the city of oakland evict and sue for damages against the As for not paying their rent?
Keith Law: Per Susan Slusser, the A’s invoked a clause in their contract that allows them to do this. I don’t see what recourse the city would have here.

JP: do you envision governments being able to mandate the COVID-19 vaccine in order to send you kids to public school? and if so, shouldn’t it be ALL vaccines?
Keith Law: Technically, they can do that. Four states mandate vaccines with no nonmedical exemptions already. All states have some sort of vaccine mandate for schoolchildren.

Chris: Do you expect to have a clear picture of the top 7-10 picks of the draft beforehand, or do you expect it to stay quiet and all guess work this year?
Keith Law: I think we’ll know the top 10-12 pretty well by draft day. Back of the round will probably be more speculation this year than typical.

Shawn: Hey Keith, great job always. What about Jared Kelley to the Mets at 19. Thanks
Keith Law: Highly doubt they take a prep arm at 19. I wouldn’t.

Steven B.: Do you like OSU catcher Dillon Dingler in the 1st round this year?
Keith Law: He was on my mock last week and I believe he goes in the first round.

Todd: Im really starting to think there’s no bottom to the Trump administration and that by late summer the economy could be enough that people will think he did a good job while he averts their attention from 200k dead. Please tell me Im wrong?
Keith Law: I don’t think the economy recovers that quickly. It’s going to be too hard to push people back to manufacturing facilities or other environments where they’re in proximity to other workers without creating new outbreaks.

Larry: What are you hearing on Mick Abel? I get the HS pitcher thing but man do scouts love him.
Keith Law: Best HS arm this year. Only prep pitcher on my mock last week.

Mike: If you go first round and get offered half of value, what do you do?  It’s arguable that contracts are going to go way down if fans can’t get back. I’m team fuck the owners, but if I’m a player and get offered 1M in a 2M slot it might be hard to turn it down
Keith Law: I would advise the player to turn it down. Go to JC next year if you’re a HS player.

Bighen: Simmons going 1 seems Egh.   I get it but analysts always warn us that defense ages early and often quickly.  So he may have almost no time left as an elite defender which would make the rest of his career look iffy.  I don’t think he can be rated above yelich, Harper or Machado for an exercise like that.  Sales future prospects and degrom’s age at least give pause.  But I think the simmons choice is not as “defensible“ as written.
Keith Law: Simmons isn’t an average defender or even an above-average one. He’s an 80 defender at short, like Ozzie Smith and Mark Belanger, both of whom held their value into their late 30s. Even Vizquel, who wasn’t as good a defender as Simmons is, held most of his defensive value till his career ended. I don’t think Simmons is an obvious choice, and feel like this exercise is both subjective and inherently speculative, but I do not agree with your counterargument here – the best argument against Andrelton is around his bat, not his glove, as it is offensive decline that ends the careers of elite defenders more than loss of glove.

Guest: Also I loved Smart Baseball and reading your work. Just as I joined ESPN as a PA you left. :/ I am reading you now in the Athletic!!
Keith Law: Well, thank you. I did try to hint that I might not stay at ESPN last year, but I didn’t decide for certain until late November.

Mike: Since you missed out on in game scouting are you watching film or cross checking for players you haven’t seen in person?
Keith Law: I watch video where I can, but this year I’ll rely more on calls to scouts than I typically do.

Jason Amico: What are your thoughts on how Joey Bart’s defensive ability behind the plate will translate at the big league level? I was curious if his hand injuries and setbacks last season would have any impact
Keith Law: I don’t see any reason it would hurt his defense in the long run. If he keeps getting hurt, maybe it’s a sign he can’t stay at catcher, but we aren’t at that point.

JD: Oakland has gone with high ceiling, up the middle tools players in recent 1st rounds (Beck, Murray, Davidson), are there names that fit this bill at the end of the first round this year?
Keith Law: Yes … but Beck hasn’t panned out, Murray didn’t sign, and Davidson is still a big question mark. Not sure they’d stick with that approach in a weird draft year anyway.

Mike: Do you think teams are prepared for this draft or is it a bigger crap shoot than normal?  Can’t wait to read the redraft article in 2030
Keith Law: Let’s just hope we’re all here to read it in 2030. I do think teams could draft today if they had to. There isn’t that much to discuss at this point without games to watch.

TomBruno23: I want to try OOTP 21, but I’m scared I’ll full go Universal Baseball Association and even more insane than I already am. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I have played OOTP, maybe 20 years ago (?), and I just can’t do it now because I’d get sucked into it and lose so much time.

Dr. Bob: I have always been opposed to the DH for reasons you already know. However, an article by a former sportswriter a couple of years ago detailed how no team (even in the NL) works with their pitchers to hit at any level. That’s when I was converted. Now Covid-19, of all things, might bring it to the NL.
Keith Law: Yep, I don’t really even see how you could work with pitchers enough on their hitting to make a difference. This should have happened years ago – the game will be better off for it.

Mike: How hard has it been to put together mock drafts this year? Has there still been a lack of info tying players to teams or have you been starting to hear more rumblings?
Keith Law: I had less info for last week’s mock than I would for a normal mock one month before a draft. We’ll see if that changes now that we’re close to the draft date and everyone is doing mocks so information is flowing more.

Mike Trout: Barring injury, when it’s all said and done am I the consensus GOAT?
Keith Law: There will be contrarians who argue against it, but I think that’s where we’re headed.

Regan: Braxton Garrett or Trevor Rogers, who has the higher upside?
Keith Law: I think Garrett.

Guest: We all understand Twitter is a cesspool but have you been following this hitting guru stuff? It’s pure gold.
Keith Law: I haven’t … and now I’m scared.

Mike-Y: How excited are you about Michael Bay making a movie about the pandemic?
Keith Law: Is he … is he going to just blow up the virus?

JP: what happens to Kyler Murray if he wants to play baseball sometime in the future? free agent? re-enters the draft?
Keith Law: Pretty sure he’s on Oakland’s restricted list and they’d hold his rights.

Guest: If he didn’t have TJ surgery, would Kevin Abel be a top draft pick this year?
Keith Law: A pick, yes, a top one, probably not.

Johnny: Will Plesac be an above avg starter in the bigs?
Keith Law: I think he can be.

Johnny: Shouldn’t Jacob Degrom be #2?
Keith Law: He’s a 31-year-old starter who’s already had TJ. His long-term projection isn’t great, even though in the short term there are few pitchers I’d rather have.

Ben: Favorite film of the 7Os?
Keith Law: I’d take The Sting over Chinatown and Star Wars – but really, the kids of today should defend themselves against the ’70s.
Keith Law: Oh, I finally saw Taxi Driver and Midnight Cowboy for the first time in the last week. We’ve been catching up on all-time great films one or both of us hasn’t seen.

Mark in Santa Monica: If there is a short season, are there any teams you think it helps more to get to the postseason?
Keith Law: It increases the odds of a team having a really fluky season and getting into the playoffs. For example, the White Sox were a good-not-great team for 162 games. If they play 70 games, could they get an outlier performance or two that makes them a 42-28 team that wins the division? Absolutely. More likely than a 98-64 season.

Pat: Did you ever watch The Wire? The pandemic finally gave me the the time to do so. Great show. maybe favorite of all time.
Keith Law: Yep, reviewed all five seasons here.

Sam: Favorite “I know it isn’t a good movie but I really enjoy it any way” movie?
Keith Law: I have a soft spot for Top Secret! I’ll always remember Deja Vu.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for the questions and for reading. I believe I’ll have my second mock next week, and then I’ll do two more before we actually draft. Take care & stay safe!