Klawchat 2/25/21.

Keith Law: I know there’s got to be a break in the monotony. Klawchat.

Nate: With the lost year of development for many minor league players has there been any talk of pushing Rule 5 eligibility back a year?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard that. It would have to be collectively bargained, and it would be a disaster for minor leaguers. Let’s hope the union stands up for them, even though they’re non-members.

Max G: Hey Keith, thanks for taking the time to do this. You had mentioned (I believe in your last chat) that a factor in you ranked big-name-heavy systems, such as the Tigers, Ordeals, and WSox, where you did was because of their historically poor international programs. What does improving these club’s international scouting look like, and is there any hope for these orgs?
Keith Law: I like the autocorrect of the Orioles as “Ordeals.” I’m sure fans who’ve lived through the last few years would concur. It’s not just one solution for all teams – in Baltimore’s case, it was the previous regime’s choice to eschew that market completely, while in Detroit and Chicago, they tended to avoid the higher-bonus guys, and did not get great results when they did go for the seven-figure players.

xxx(yyy): thoughts on NBA Top Shot? chances we see an MLB version of that same kind of concept?
Keith Law: Had to look this up. I really don’t know anything about this idea. Digital assets aren’t assets. You don’t own the ebooks you think you bought. You’re just leasing them.

Mitchell: What first year players, J2 or 2020 draftees are you most excited to see in person in Sprint Training?
Keith Law: This will be a column in March.

Ben (MN): Have you tried playing any board games with others virtually? If so, any that work well? I’m getting so sick of two player games because my wife beats me all the time.
Keith Law: On gaming sites, yes. Across Zoom, only more social games. I wrote about some for Vulture back in November. https://klaw.me/2HdYUAl

Terry: I patiently waited for your NL Central Top 20 prospects lists to see where Drew Rasmussen was going to land….quickly learning after his name didn’t appear that he lost rookie eligibility (face, meet palm). Thoughts on him?
Keith Law: One-inning reliever. Horrible overuse at Oregon State ended any chance he’d be more.

bROOKS: Matt Thaiss – major leaguer? Bench likely, or every day guy?
Keith Law: Bench ceiling. Not enough bat for every day guy.

Billy: Is Cubs fans dragging of the Ricketts family warranted?
Keith Law: I mean, there are so many reasons…

Stu: Have you heard anything about Verlander’s progress? Best guess: does he pitch in the majors again? He’ll be out of a contract at the end of the season
Keith Law: Oh, he’ll pitch in the majors again. Someone will give him a chance even if he’s throwing 87.
Keith Law: I have no idea how he’s doing.

Duchess: Hey Keith, Pedro Leon seems unique in that he’s a older than many of the international prospects and has some pro experience. Understand that the long layoff introduces a huge variable, but what are the chances he sees a rapid run through the minors and ends up in Houston later in the summer?
Keith Law: He’s really interesting in that he has the tools of a top 50 or even top 25 prospect, is older than the typical J2 signing, but is younger than most of the good Cuban position player prospects who’ve come over (other than Robert, I think). We just have no idea how advanced he is as a hitter because the Serie Nacional has been so bad since the waves of defections began 8-10 years ago.

RobD: Do we really know how valuable it is for prospects to play in real minor league games vs other ways to develop their skills? I often hear about needing more time in game situations – is there really no other way to teach them those things than games? I have been wondering if something like 2-3 games a week plus alternative training ala Driveline might be a more efficient means of development. I know I am colored by my high school baseball days where we’d spend hours on a bus just to play a game where I’d get 4 ABs and a few groundballs hit to me.
Keith Law: I don’t buy that at all. The hardest things to do in baseball involve other players who are trying to do the other hardest things against you – getting hitters out, hitting real pitching.

Andy: How do ratings on the Athletic work, from the writer perspective? If I rate everything as solid, but occasional things as awesome, does that help ratings or is it like Uber, that awesome is the standard and anything below it could be an issue?
Keith Law: No one has ever mentioned those ratings to me.

barbeach: Belated congrats on your nuptials.  Wishing you many decades of happiness.  Bought Azul to play with the family based on your recommendation…has been great fun as we navigate Covid cabin fever.  So thanks.  Question: Is this the year Clint Frazier really breaks out?
Keith Law: If he’s healthy, he’ll play and be fine. I don’t think he’s a star because the same swing and miss issues that were there in high school are, as far as I know, still there.

Todd Boss: Texas frozen windmills == root cause of Texas’ power grid failures.  Right.  At what point does the disingenuity of right wing media become so ridiculous that even the brainwashed masses who watch it call BS?
Keith Law: Never. That will simply never happen. Denialism is too entrenched in American culture, the result of poor public education, income inequality, and our high degree of religiosity compared to other developed nations.

Andy: How long until you feel comfortable going to a game? How long until you feel comfortable taking your family to a game (since there won’t be a vaccine for kids until at least 2022 season?) It’s outdoors, but the yelling and close proximity, makes me hesitant.
Keith Law: I’ll go when I’m vaccinated, or I’ll go if it’s just media and scouts but no fans. I don’t see taking the kids till next year.

JT: Is using Biggio as a stop gap until Austin is ready a perfectly OK solution for the Jays? All of the rumored links to 3B seem to reveal that they get it on Biggio–he’s not a long term starter.
Keith Law: The signing of Semien was the clearest indicator to me that they see what I have always said about Biggio. He shouldn’t be playing every day for a contender.

JT: How hard is it to consider guys like Yadier Alvarez when doing your lists and organizational charts? In a normal year, we would have seen how he reacted to adversity, and it’s possible he could have broken through. Now, it’s almost like we’re forced logically to assume the worst–which tends to happen, ‘natch.
Keith Law: I say this facetiously, but … who?

John Olerud: So… how do the Ms best handle this? Indeed, as a (now more embarrassed and more reluctant than ever) fan of this sorry team, what would you say is the best approach going forward, both on a responsible/ethical and (less importantly) competitive level? To be sure, these are not mutually exclusive outcomes, and any suggestion of such is no doubt complete BS. But I’d be grateful to get your analysis of the situation and your suggestions for any ideal hires. Thanks as always for taking the time.
Keith Law: The M’s need an actual investigation into their internal culture, because, in most cases, if the President feels this way, it’s reflected throughout the organization. Any solution depends on just how widespread these sentiments are.

Todd Boss: If you were the Nats, would you stick Seth Romero as a starter in AAA or have him compete for the lefty reliever MLB bullpen slot?
Keith Law: Can’t see him being a starter with his persistent knuckleheadedness.

JT: I signed up for the Athletic for you and for Eno. Thank you for what you do.
Keith Law: Thank you. Your subscriptions allow me to do what I do.

Jake: What did you hear about Seth Corry in instructs that jumped him into your top 100? Do you think he starts in AA and at least starts the clock for giving the Giants pitching a much needed youth infusion?
Keith Law: The answer to the first question is in the player capsule for Corry. The answer to the second is yes to AA and no to the majors.

Aaron: Agree with your take on the Chicago 7 – it shows the full Sorkin experience, with the good and bad that implies (maybe he created the female FBI agent to have a bad female character).
Keith Law: In fairness, and I don’t feel any real need to be fair to Sorkin, the real story has no women in it. Creating a fictional female character to avoid that is probably a good thing. Creating THAT fictional female character was just stupid.

Phillip P.: Thanks for the chat, Keith! By every measure, Ronald Acuna has been a star. And if he maintains his level of production for a long time, he’ll be a HOFer. But what are the chances he makes the leap from being a 5- to 6-win player to being an 8-plus-WAR guy? What adjustments does he need to make to get there?
Keith Law: He’s still just 23, and B-R had him at 2.3 WAR in 46 games played last year (a rate of 8.1 WAR per 162 games) after a 5.7 WAR in 2019. Your question sort of presumes he’s not already heading towards a 7-8 WAR peak and I don’t agree with that.

JJ: What will you miss most about the Tim Tebow Era?
Keith Law: Oh, no question, the whining from people who claimed I hate Tebow for his religious beliefs, as if he was the only Christian in baseball.

Dan: Thanks as always for the chat Keith! Who in the Twins system do you think has the best chance to have a helium year and jump up the rankings?
Keith Law: Every team report has a Sleeper section at the end that answers this precise question.

Rob: I’m curious now that you’ve gone through the whole prospect exercise (and thanks for all 80,000 words, by the way), did you end up getting more usable and reliable (aka independently sourced) scouting information than expected?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think so. I’m glad this book is closed and we will get games this year, with scouting reports and data, to make the whole exercise better and more enjoyable in 2022.

Joe: Does Antoine Kelly project as a starter or more a 2 pitch reliever?
Keith Law: Starter with high variance.

Guest: With Lindor, Baez, Correa, Seager and Story all free agents at the same time, what do you think those contracts look like?  My assumption is that all of them expect $150 million+ but I have a hard time finding 5 realistic teams that will bid at that level.
Keith Law: Depends on whether there are any more free agents out there as a result of the new CBA – or if the CBA negotations are drawn out and we get some sort of labor stoppage.

Tom: I think we’re probably ok to just throw out Kris Bryants 2020 and say he’s still a .380 OBP 500 SLG guy, right?
Keith Law: I would work off that assumption if I were Hoyer.

JJ: Ten years, $240 million, and three total playoff games — do you think, if given a redo, either the Angels or Albert Pujols would do that contract again?
Keith Law: I’m sure Pujols would. I doubt the Angels would.

Jackie: Do you think Jeter Downs takes over at second base for the Red Sox some time in 2021?  I’m not too excited by the thought of Enrique Hernandez on an everyday basis.
Tim: How close to being a MLBer is Khalil Lee? What’s his most likely future? Thanks.
Keith Law: I think Downs could, yes.
Keith Law: Lee is probably not far at all from being a big leaguer, but he has a real adjustment to make before he’s a regular (and the hope is that he started to make it at the alt site).

Salty: You mentioned last chat about not investing in crypto partially because it’s an environmental disaster.  I don’t get involved with it personally due to a lack of understanding and confidence in it, but never thought of it in that light.  Can you please expound on that, unless you feel this isn’t the best format to do so?
Keith Law: I believe I linked to it in the last chat. Cryptocurrencies require tremendous computing power, and the energy used to support them already rivals some countries’ entire energy usage. And to what end? None, other than speculation.

Heather: What’s your favorite conspiracy theory that you secretly think, “Yeah, that one might actually be true”?  Roswell, the JFK assassination, the Patrick Ewing Lottery Fix, pedophile pizza parlors?
Keith Law: I mean, one of those things (Ewing) is not like the others. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to hear a pro sports league rigged something to ensure that a player went to a specific market – or, worse, to ensure that, say, Michael Jordan never fouled out of a game because it would crush TV ratings. The other three things you mentioned are all basically nuts.

Brian: I had a question there (I’m the Dylan Cease guy) and hit send too soon. My question was if you were the WSox, would you rather have Dylan Cease or Dane Dunning?
Keith Law: Cease.

Chris P: Didn’t see Derek Hill in your top 20 for the Tigers. You had been higher on him than most in the past due to his athleticism, but has he gone past the prospect level now?
Keith Law: With no evidence to say he’s going to either make more contact or hit the ball harder than he did in 2019, we have a 25-year-old whose ceiling is fourth outfielder.

Todd Boss: When Jared Kelenic is sent to AAA on April 1st for two weeks, how big will the outrage be?
Keith Law: He has more reason for a grievance than Kris Bryant did, given Mather’s comments. That said, is Kelenic actually ready for the majors? Do we know that? The Mariners might have a good answer, but with no minor league season in 2020, we’d just be guessing.

Kori: Hi Keith – if Austin Beck can (a big if) bring his hit tool to 40, does that rest of the package make him an average regular?
Keith Law: Don’t think so. 45 yes, 40 no.
Keith Law: Well … even at a 45, is the power he shows in BP also showing up in games? Or does he get to that grade 45 (thus still below average) hit tool by shortening up and trading power for contact?

Matthew: Catcher of the future in Toronto: Jansen, Kirk, or…?
Keith Law: I might bet on Moreno over Kirk, but it’s not Jansen.

Old Prospector: Do you think Francisco Mejia can be an everyday player in MLB?
Keith Law: I do. There are few guys who hit like he did in the minors and then completely fail to hit in the majors. Andy Marte comes to mind. But they’re rare.
Keith Law: And Mejia didn’t just put up empty numbers. He really hit, with some impact, and a good swing, and scouts agreed with the stat lines.

Old Prospector: Obviously it is going to be a rough year in Pittsburgh. Beyond Hayes and Keller, is there anyone on the big league roster you think could be a valuable contributor the next time the Pirates are competing for a playoff spot?
Keith Law: I could see Reynolds ending up on that roster 3-4 years from now. Anyone else of merit would be gone by then, though.

Jay: Do you think we’ll ever see two DHs? Or teams use their DH for their catcher instead of the pitcher? It feels like catcher’s are getting worse offensively as a collective for some time now.
Keith Law: No, I don’t, and I don’t agree on the latter point. I think catchers hit about as well as they did 30-40 years ago, but they catch better.

Dan: Do you think Vlad will be able to make the adjustment(s) to get the ball in the air more this year? I know it’s super early in his career, but was that ever a concern of yours/anyone’s regarding his swing? I can’t recall ever reading anything about his GB%.
Keith Law: I think he will at some point, but all the people excited about his weight loss seem to think the two are connected and they’re absolutely not.

Sandy Alderson: Is Biden reopening the child detention facility as bad as it sounds? What do we do to hold him accountable?
Keith Law: It isn’t as bad as it sounds, but that didn’t stop everyone from reacting to a headline. They had to reopen the facility to comply with COVID-19 prevention guidelines. The Washington Post and NPR both fact-checked this claim.

Dr. Bob: Isn’t the problem that Kelenic can’t file a grievance if he’s sent down because he won’t be represented by the union until he comes up?
Keith Law: Bryant wasn’t either. He still filed one (and lost).

Jay: When COL signed Arenado to his extension, I thought COL signed him for a good $/WAR/year and it was a good value. Why did they have to kick in an extra $50M to trade him for prospects with such limited ceilings and FV?
Keith Law: Poor negotiating by the Rockies? I don’t have another answer.

Prospector: Who would your project for better offensive production if they both reach close to their ceilings – CJ Abrams or Ronny Mauricio?
Keith Law: Abrams.

Jay: Give me hope that Blaze Jordan will be an all-star. Not because I like the Red Sox, but because we need more Dodgeball named guys in MLB
Keith Law: Extremely unlikely. Singles hitting first baseman. Needs a massive swing overhaul to get to his power.

Old Prospector: Any thoughts on Elijah Greene? Is he a potentially generational type 1-1 pick type guy?
Keith Law: He’s going to be a high pick in 2022 – there was some talk he’d try to reclassify into 2021 – but I am not putting that tag on him yet.

JJ: I don’t think everyone involved in the JFK assassination was arrested.  Oliver Stone made everyone who thinks that way look like a lunatic, however.  Thanks, Oliver.
Keith Law: I haven’t seen that movie, essentially for that reason: ultimately he’s trafficking in, and profiting from, conspiracy theories. I know people say the movie is great. I can’t watch it with clear eyes.

davealden53: First time since your wedding that I’ve stumbled upon one of your chats while it was still going on.  Congrats on the wedding and especially on the letter you wrote about it.  The letter was so sincere and quietly joyful that I’ve yet to delete it but instead return to reread it regularly.
Keith Law: thank you! you haven’t missed many chats – this is only my third since I got married – but I appreciate the kind words.

Andy: I know you haven’t done draft rankings yet but Leiter v Rocker, who are you leaning towards having higher? Also, is that top 2 better (in college) than UCLA’s of Cole-Bauer?
Keith Law: Draft rankings next week. I have never understood the idea that Rocker was some obvious 1-1 guy. He’s not. And I don’t think he’s going to be 1 on my ranking. This is some combination of him throwing the no-hitter two years ago and being famous and good in high school (he was), but those aren’t reasons for a player to be taken first overall.

Todd Boss: Will the ill-advised comments of now resigned Mariner’s president have a profound effect on the next CBA?  Or will his comments be spun as the words of a raving mad-man that are completely untrue?
Keith Law: I’m hopeful it encourages the players to take a harder line this time around, after they went for quality of life improvements in the last negotiations but ended up conceding too much ground on other fronts, including the luxury tax and the international free agency system.

Lacey: Hey Keith, do you have any baseball podcast series you’d recommened? I just finished The Edge about the Astros and loved it. Anything along those lines?
Keith Law: No, sorry, even in a pre-pandemic world I only listened to 3-4 podcasts, and now without time in the car I have a hard time keeping up with those.

Matt: What’s your take on Mitch Keller….didn’t allow a hit in his last eleven innings, but walked ten guys….
Keith Law: We know by now that pitchers not allowing hits is at least partly a function of luck/defense, and not exclusively a credit to the pitcher. You’re also asking about a sample so small it’s meaningless. Keller’s main problem is the lack of a third pitch to get lefties out – in 2020, he walked 11 LHB and struck out 6, and he’s had problems with LHB going back at least to AA.

Guest: What will be the highest priority for the union in the next CBA: fixing service time manipulation, making drastic changes to the luxury tax, reducing the number of controlled years from 6 to something like 4, something else?
Keith Law: It should be the luxury tax, although I would also like to see them reduce the number of years to free agency to 5.

Chris: You’re forced to answer, which team is the best run organization in baseball right now?
Keith Law: Fun fact: I am not forced to answer, so I won’t. There are many well-run organizations in baseball right now.

Len: Macro Luciano – can he become a GUY?
Keith Law: Yes.

Chris: I’m a huge Dodger fan, but I just absolutely love what the Padres have done the last couple of years (minus Hosmer). It is just so refreshing to see a team trying to win (and what a weird thing to say about professional sports).
Keith Law: It’s great for baseball, but isn’t it good business? Sure, you can take easy profits from revenue sharing, but if you want the bigger payoff, doesn’t it make sense to exploit the inefficiency of other teams essentially doing as little as possible and try to win? If the Padres end up with their first World Championship, it will also result in a large windfall for the owners.

Dee Arby: Our educational system needs a massive overhaul, what core subjects outside of science and math should we be teaching the kids?
Keith Law: Critical thinking. That’s more of a multi-disciplinary thing, but teaching students to read with a critical eye – perhaps using the SIFT method – and understand how to tell when someone is lying or misleading them, or when a conclusion isn’t supported by the evidence provided, or how unconscious biases might affect what they see and think.

Nate: Not a baseball comment — having the league fix the draft lottery so the Knicks win the rights to Patrick Ewing, then never winning a championship with Patrick Ewing, is so typical of the Knicks.  They can’t even cheat properly.
Keith Law: That joke was the best thing in all of Soul.

Guest: Just saw Royce Lewis, top prospect of Twins shows up for Spring Training and under preliminary physical is revealed to have torn ACL and out for the year.  As an athlete, how can you have that serious an injury and not know???
Keith Law: Perhaps he was hoping for a better outcome? I’m sure lots of us have had health scares, or know people who’ve had, where you knew something was wrong but hoped or prayed (if you’re so inclined) for a better diagnosis than the worst case scenario.

JR: Has tanking gone so far that it’s become a strategy for not really trying but we can tell our fans it’s our plan? I feel like Cubs/Astros started this trend, and it worked for the most part for them.  Other teams have tried but seemed to only be serious about the tanking aspect and not the “spending once we get good” aspect, yet they keep using tanking to stay bad/not spend.
Keith Law: The “we’ll spend when we get good” line is the key here. As long as fans buy it, they’ll sell that … and never spend.

Pat: Courses that should be mandatory in school- Some type of personal finance. Teach kids about credit, stocks, interest, borrowing, student loans, etc. I wonder how much lesser the student loan debt crisis would be if young people at least had a basic understanding of what they’re signing.
Keith Law: Yes. I’d rather see a full year of economics – half on personal finance, half on how the economy actually works – than a fourth year of English (or literature). I say that as an avid reader, too. The former is a lot more useful for life after high school than reading Pride and Prejudice and An American Tragedy.

Rules for Thee: Why did you feel it appropriate to have a wedding ceremony amidst the pandemic?  I know you said you were in compliance with Delaware regulations but you’ve also criticized those regulations.  So which is it?  Abiding the regulations makes approved activities safe?  Or the state’s regulations are putting people needlessly at risk?
Keith Law: That’s simply false. I did not criticize Delaware’s regulations on gatherings, which were very strict and right to be so. We adhered to those, with a tiny reception, and to mask and distancing guidelines as well. I have criticized the lax rules on bars being open, though. Go troll somewhere else.

Frank: Please fine “Rules for Thee” $5 for baiting.
Keith Law: Oh, absolutely.

Chris: I’m wondering if you have an opinion on a team having a fixation in the international market for specific countries.  The Dodgers seem to skew heavily towards Venezuela right now, for example.
Keith Law: That was true at some points in the past – Houston had a longstanding affinity for Venezuelan prospects in the 1990s – but I don’t know if that’s feasible now with a hard cap on international bonuses. That said, the failed state in VZ and danger of travel there could also mean an opportunity for teams willing to take that risk or spend more for personal security there.

Guest: Keith, what does it say about an organization that just a year or so ago would sign a young player like Arrenado (or in NFL, Wentz or Goff) to huge 9 figure contracts and then move on??
Keith Law: Aren’t those NFL deals non-guaranteed? I don’t think it’s a perfect analogy. Also, Carson Wentz held the ball for your entire question and just got sacked.

Oscar: Have you ever considered designing your own board game? It’s not like you have too many other things going on . . .
Keith Law: Yes. It’s a time-consuming task, though, and I have so much else I need or want to do.

Guest: Keith, as a follow-up to the Mather talk:  Don’t  these multi-billion dollar organizations have internal media training and updating memos of how and what to say in public??  It seems like such an easy answer to a lot of stupidity.
Keith Law: Yes. I’m not sure they think to include Presidents and CEOs in those. Isn’t there an assumption (wrong, obviously) that if you’ve risen to that point you already know how to deal with the public?

Joe: What percentage which you say AAA games happen in early April at home stadiums? How about the other levels in May?
Keith Law: I think the games will happen – figure maybe 20% are cancelled due to positive tests – without fans until at least May. MLB may just have to accept that they need to subsidize some of those teams, which is only fair since they just executed a hostile takeover of the minors anyway.

Mike Trout: Longtime reader so seeing you comment and watch football is a little jarring. What do you like about it now that you didn’t seem to like before?
Keith Law: I married an Eagles fan. Although I have to say I prefer watching rugby. As long as we beat the English, I don’t care!
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks so much for reading, especially with the large amount of content I dumped on you in the past month. I will have a draft ranking up next week, and remember that The Inside Game is coming out in paperback on April 6th. You can pre-order it now, and maybe I’ll get to do some signing events this summer once more of us are vaccinated too. Stay safe everyone!