Klawchat, 9/3/21.

Keith Law: Pain finds me everywhere. Klawchat.

Heather: If you don’t answer my question, I’ll give you a thumbs down.
Keith Law: Dammit, I’m already downvoted before we begin.

Guest: Keith, I am an RN who cannot seem to get through to my family members about the vaccine. What would you suggest is the best way to objectively reason with people who are listening to bad sources, or have we just lost a significant portion of the country to a cult?
Keith Law: It’s some of both, really. I had an argument with an anti-vaxxer recently – in person, of all things, and she wasn’t masked! – who trotted out every dumb anti-vax trope, from microchips to vitamin D to fake side effects. There was no getting through to her. But we are also prone to overweight highly memorable anecdotes, which skews us towards negative ones – if you see a facebook post that claims the vaccine has killed 5000 Americans (they haven’t, and the correct number is probably 0), that’s going to lodge in your mind, and it will take a lot of patient counterarguments to dislodge it. So I’d pick your battles here, find a family member who is hesitant but not refusing, and start slowly with them.

Pat: Glass Tiger? You’ve hit a new low!!
Keith Law: That song has been in my head for three days. I have no idea why.

Guy B: Just curious if you suffered any storm damage in your area of the country?  If so, stay safe.
Keith Law: We did not, but we were fortunate. If you’ve seen images of the Brandywine River overflowing its banks – it reached 22′, which is believed to be a record high – that is less than 4 miles from our house, and multiple roads near us were impassable. We also know someone whose backyard was damaged by the tornado up in Mullica Hill, NJ. We happen to live on slightly higher ground – nothing is THAT high in Delaware – and just far enough from the river here that we did OK. Thank you for asking.

Pj (Jersey City): What is wrong with cody bellinger at the plate? He looks completely lost.
Keith Law: My guess is it’s a lingering effect from the shoulder injury. He’s getting beat on fastballs. You don’t just forget how to hit a fastball.

ben: Hi, I’m the guy who said hello at the setbreak of the Hershey show. How was your Phish experience?
Keith Law: Good! And I’m glad you popped in here, because I have felt bad since then for failing to ask your name. Anyway, the shows were good, and I’m glad we didn’t get “Tweezer” but did get a bunch of the songs I know best from when I was in college. A “YEM” would have been nice, but I’m not complaining. I think I saw you at the second show, which had the encore of Trey solo stuff? That’s not really my cup of tea.

Joe: Nick Yorke’s bat seems to be living up to the Sox expectations. Have you heard any reports on his defense? Ave glove at 2B, below average, but playable or maybe a LF but the bat will probably play?
Keith Law: Heard raves on the bat and maybe 45 defense at second. More than playable as long as he hits like this. Maybe he was just underscouted because of the pandemic – I have still never seen him.

John: Daniel Lynch has been good his second time up. Is this what you expected from your Wilmington looks?
Keith Law: Getting there. I think there’s more improvement ahead of him, especially working more as a 3-4 pitch guy who doesn’t rely too much on the fastball (up to 99, regularly at 97, but plays below that because of lack of life/movement).
Keith Law: The Royals are going to get very interesting very soon. Next year they should have a better rotation, plus Witt, Pratto, maybe MJM.

Bob: How is the business of minor league ball? I’ve been shocked at how sparsely games I’ve attended have been and the crowd shits on MiLB.tv have been similar. Should we be concerned that minor league ball is something that never really comes all the way back?
Keith Law: I’ve noticed the same when I’ve been out at games this year. Nobody is drawing. It’s definitely a concern because that’s their main revenue source – and I don’t want a situation where more MiLB owners feel compelled to sell to MLB.

Bill S.: Keith, (accidentally hit send too soon, I’ll try again).  The Dodgers organization has clearly been successfully through the minors with player development.  However, does their perennial contender status actually hurt them with the final stage of player development – young players in the majors?  
Thinking about Gavin Lux, and to a lesser degree Zack McKinstry this year.  To finish their development young players need to play regularly in the majors.  Yet, the Dodgers divisional race makes it hard for them to roll out players who are not fully baked.  How should they handle Lux, as well as other talented minor leaguers that will eventually come up and need regular time?  Thank you!
Keith Law: It’s a reasonable concern, especially for players who come up at positions where the Dodgers have established regulars – Lux (Seager), Keibert (Smith, plus Cartaya behind). Easier on the pitching side because they can always work in those guys in long relief first. I think the Dodgers are among the top 2-3 organizations for drafting & development, but even they can’t ignore those structural issues and it may mean certain players don’t develop fully unless there’s an injury.

Bob: I think you mentioned some concerns about Michael Harris’ approach earlier in the year. His BB rate has improved some recently, have you heard if he’s made some real improvements there?
Keith Law: It’s not his walk rate – it’s his recognition of offspeed stuff. Be careful not to scout the stat line.

Derek: Has Kevin Made’s second half performance and tools he’s displayed elevated him to the same or near-prospect level of Ed Howard?
Keith Law: I mean, they’ve both been pretty bad. They’re really young & inexperienced for pro ball, so I’m not saying they’re no longer prospects, but I don’t know what you’re seeing here.

JJ: Red Sox failing to sign their high second round pick — is that on Fabian (and his “advisors”)  for way overvaluing himself, or on Chaim Bloom for not having a clear understanding of what it would take to get him to sign before making the selection, thereby wasting the 40th pick in the draft?
Keith Law: That’s 100% on the advisers and the player too. Failure to understand the market, to recognize what a bad year he had, and most of all, to get that it’s a draft – the system sucks for players, but this is the system. He’s going to be a fourth-year junior next year and pretty much has to go top 20 to beat what he would have made from Boston. When you go a whole spring and don’t make adjustments to the way pitchers are getting you out, you’re not a first-rounder.

Deke: So what’s your strategy to avoid feeling despondent about **waves generally at the entire world**? Because my strategies of late are not working.
Keith Law: I’ve avoided reading too much about a lot of the awfulness in the world. Texas turning into a fundamentalist theocracy, which has been coming for years, is beyond depressing, but reading more about that isn’t going to accomplish anything except reminding me of the high cost of low education.

Jackie: It used to be that 300 victories was the benchmark for automatic entry into the HOF for starting pitchers, but no one’s coming close to that number in the foreseeable future.  The 500 HR threshhold went out the door for hitters with Sosa/McGwire/Palmeiro.  Do you think there are any automatic statistical threshholds left?
Keith Law: There might be for some voters, but I don’t think there are any more.

C-Note: Best guess….% chance Bauer pitches in the MLB again?
Keith Law: It sounds like 0%, and I’m fine with that.

Robert: I’ve seen it said that Yoelqui Cespedes has some pitch recognition issues.  Can some of this be attributed to rust (not playing)?  Either way, is this a skill that can develop?
Keith Law: It is a skill that can develop, but it’s rare, and I think this is just what he is right now – a big tools guy without that core skill.

Stevo: I get that MLB pitchers spend all of their time focused on pitching which is why their hitting suffers but why haven’t we seen a pitcher/hitter like Ohtani before?
Keith Law: Ohtani strikes out in a third of his PA. Before the last 2-3 years, the industry would have considered that unacceptable and made him just a pitcher.

Joe Don: Keith, there’s a very loud contingent of Texas fans demanding that the team sign one of the soon-to-be big money free agents, specifically mentioning Trevor Story and Carlos Correa. Given how far the Rangers are from being competitive again, does it make any sense for them to dive head-first into this year’s free-agent pool?
Keith Law: I would say no – not that I’d oppose them doing so, because I don’t think there’s huge downside, but I think they’re a good 2-3 years from contending.

Mitch: Any thoughts on the Wingspan app?
Keith Law: It’s great other than the AI, which I think needs to be stronger. Anything below ‘hard’ is too easy. But it plays great on the iPad and I love how they’ve set up navigation of your tableau.

Josh: I think I remember you saying you wanted to cover Labor negotiations when you joined at the Athletic. That still a plan? I’d like to hear your (balanced) thoughts as this gets messy.
Keith Law: Yes, the pandemic and then some life stuff have all kind of gotten in the way.

Jon V: How does A. Rosario fit in the Guardians long term plan? More reps in CF? Move Ramirez back to 2B and see if he can play 3B?
Keith Law: If they trade Jose Ramirez, which I think is the right move for them at this point, I’d try Rosario at third … but just pick a position and let him hit. He’s finally turning into the guy he was supposed to be and I think it’s no coincidence that it comes 1) outside of Queens and 2) with more consistent playing time.

Guest: I’m 35 and in my lifetime the number of climate disasters has gone from once every 5-10 years to all the time. How can such a large part of the population be so blind to what is right in front of them and greatly impacting their lives?
Keith Law: Two reasons. One is so much of the messaging from the media and one entire political party tells them it’s not real, even though a lot of that is funded by oil & gas. And two is that I think it threatens a lot of folks’ blind faith in a deity who will protect humanity, even from our own mistakes. We’re going to make the planet uninhabitable. I don’t care what God you believe in – nobody is coming to save us from ourselves.

Nick: How concerned are you about Alec Bohm’s season?
Keith Law: Long term, I think he’s still going to be an above-average bat. But you can add him to the pile of Phillies prospects who haven’t developed. The player development changes were overdue. There’s a lot of lost value in players who’ve stalled or regressed after entering that system.

Jason: Austin Riley’s now put together almost an entire great year at the plate. In the past, you were skeptical of him having prolonged success because of his bat speed. And I also thought he couldn’t hit a slider. Is it now time to say we both underestimated him and he’s maybe going to be a borderline all star third baseman going forward?
Keith Law: I think he’s better than that. I’d put the over/under on his WAR next year at 5.5. He is absolutely an all-star.
Keith Law: I have more to come on that topic on Monday. My latest post was supposed to go up today but they’re holding it for next week instead.

Lara: My parents named me after the love theme from “Dr. Zhivago” — no offense to them, but that movie stunk out loud.  Is there a universally praised classic movie that you thought was unwatchable?
Keith Law: I couldn’t finish Unforgiven. I think An American in Paris is a boring plotless mess. I also couldn’t finish Tom Jones despite loving the novel.

David: What chance does CJ Abrams have of being the Padres’ starting shortstop in 2022, with Tatis moved to the outfield permanently?
Keith Law: I feel like that has become much more likely this year, although we do have to see how Abrams comes back from the knee injury.

Romorr: There are a few 2B options for the Orioles.  I’m more hyped for Vavra since he’s a LHB.  Any chance he’s a regular there?
Keith Law: If he’s a regular, that would be the position. I do like him – he’ll get the most out of his tools.

Chipper Jones: Should the Braves organization distance themselves from my crazy statements?
Keith Law: Yes. They should part ways with you, as the Nats did with Bob Boone.

Romorr: Have you noticed the Orioles approach in the minors?  Lots of guys putting up insane walk numbers.
Keith Law: Yes, and I’ve seen some of their prospects – it’s passivity, not selectivity. Maybe it turns into the latter in time, but it’s not the kind of quality AB I’d want to see.

Josh: The Orioles farm seems position player heavy from a birds eye view.  Does the team have any pitchers besides Rodriguez and Hall that can be mid rotation starters?
Keith Law: Maybe there’s someone in the Florida Man League I don’t know about yet, but I would say no, you have the two, and Hall has to get healthy.

Brett: What do you think of Vinnie Pasquantino as a prospect moving forward in the Royals organization?  He is mashing in AA but as an 11th round pick I’m just wondering if he has a big hole or weakness that will be exploited as he moves up further in the org and faces better competition.
Keith Law: Wasn’t he a side character in The Irishman? Does he paint houses? He’s too old even for AA and while his performance is great it’s not that meaningful given his age.

Doreau: The (Devil) Rays have the best record in the AL, yet the last three home games, they’re drawing 8500 a night, and half of them are Red Sox fans.  It’s been almost 30 years; when does MLB pull the plug on the market, and move to San Antonio/Portland/Vegas/Memphis/anywhere where people would show up?
Keith Law: It’s not quite that simple – there’s a lease involved, for one thing, and MLB isn’t letting any team move without a sweetheart stadium deal at the destination.

Guest: Do you think we lose any part of 22 before a collective bargaining agreement is reached ?
Keith Law: If MLB’s most recent offer is any indication of their stance, yes, definitely.

PJ (Jersey City): I read a rumor that the Orioles planned to use underslot money to pay Fabian. Would the Red Sox intentionally take Fabian to throw a wrench in another team’s draft strategy?
Keith Law: No, that would be pretty self-defeating – but they’re also under no obligation to adhere to a deal a player may have struck with another team, either.

Danny: Do you have any early observations/thoughts on Jasson Dominguez’s first season?
Keith Law: He’s exceptionally young for full-season ball. That he’s doing anything at all there is a good sign. But I do think for whatever reason – bad evals, the lost year – he’s not going to race through the minors the way some scouts/execs thought he might.

Chris: why did Deivi roll out of the Gas Station a lemon, and can he be repaired?
Keith Law: They lowered his arm slot. I have NO idea why.

Buck: Garrett Mitchell starting to rise up prospect lists?
Keith Law: No.

Andy: With the current scandal about a non-real football program playing games against high schools, is there any worry that the top high school prospects in baseball will leave their high schools and only do elite teams? I’m reminded of Kelenic who didn’t play high school baseball at all, though most kid’s parents can’t build a baseball complex for them.
Keith Law: That has been rumored for as long as I’ve been in the industry and it still hasn’t happened. In Kelenic’s case, he had a real reason to do so – his HS season was so short that it would have been hard for teams to scout him. You’ll always see a few cold-weather kids just do travel teams, and some will move south (like to IMG). But for most, the path of least resistance is to play for your high school.

Danny: Any notable observations of 2021 draftees in their first couple weeks of games?
Keith Law: That’s all SSS stuff. Just be careful.

Skippy: I asked in spring training and you were still skeptical so I was hoping to see what you think now, is Tyler O’Neill improvement at the plate real? He’s dropped his pull% about 5% while adding it to his center%. Still a high K guy but he’s held it steady at 31% and a 7%BB rate. .343 OBP and Slugging .503, is it real? Or just a talented guy who’s had a good season but still maybe isn’t sustainable longer term?
Keith Law: I’m taking the under on this.

addoeh: Patrick Wisdom is a great story but he strikes out a ton and he’s hit a lot of home runs (25) but not a lot of doubles (8). It just seems like he’ll be the opening day 3B, because the Cubs have a ton of areas to address, but by June that  might look like a mistake. Am I way off base here?
Keith Law: Nope, I would say exactly the same thing.

Leites: Hi Keith!  Thanks for doing these as often as you do.  Any reason for optimism for Bo Naylor’s hit tool?  or Jeter Down’s?
Keith Law: I really think the Guardians erred by bumping Naylor up two levels this year. Still a believer in both players, but they’ve been disappointing nonetheless.

Mac: Termarr Johnson is the best High School hitter since?
Keith Law: Depends on who you ask. One scout told me it’s the best HS hit tool he’s seen in maybe a decade; another said he thinks the way Johnson’s swing works will cause a lot of trouble when he gets to see better pitching.

Sean: Is Casas ready for opening day next year?  I know dalbec has shown some signs of life but it’s hard to see him ever being more than a fringe MLBer.
Keith Law: Dalbec is below replacement level. I don’t get why people keep trying to make him a thing – if he had a few more PA to qualify, he’d have the second-worst K% of any hitter this year. I think Casas is more of a second half callup.

Noah: Also, sorry, this is a second question from me and I don’t want to inundate you with too much, but as a Mets fan I have to ask: shouldn’t job one be to fire Sandy Alderson?  The guy has presided over an organization that has had multiple sexual harassers/abusers, an acting GM with a DUI, and men who have committed domestic violence.  I am really shocked that he has so far skated.
Keith Law: I can’t imagine he is still there by November. Whether he’s fired, resigns, or is just pushed aside, he’s been the one overseeing the mess you described. It’s not even about the team on the field.

Mike: Isn’t it horrific that the worst part of Trump’s “legacy” is his ability to turn SCOTUS into an extension of the Catholic Church that has obliterated the separation of church and state?
Keith Law: Yep. Also, I can’t believe Democrats still don’t get that a huge part of the GOP strategy is to put younger judges on the court so that they hold those seats forever.

Matt: I have a really hard time believing Bauer won’t pitch again. He may be suspended for all of next year and by 2023, I could certainly see some team hoping the public won’t remember what he did and take a chance on him because of the talent. If he was a lesser player, his career would be over, but I have to think some team will think it’s worth whatever PR hit they take.
Keith Law: I don’t think so.
Keith Law: He’s always been a headache. Now he’s a headache who has admitted in court to violent behavior towards women.

Nick: Guessing Greensboro is a pretty good hitters park but So it would it be better for Pirates to move up Nick Gonzalez and Peugero to get a better indication of progress ?
Keith Law: Agreed – and yes, it’s a great hitters park.

Todd Boss: Cade Cavalli now in AAA: based on your scouting reports earlier this seems kind of surprising perhaps?  Or is the promotion evidence of the team making him face guys who can actually hit 100 and force him to work on command?
Keith Law: Yes, I would bet that’s exactly their belief – and I agree with it. He did get hit around in his first AAA outing, and now he gets to make some adjustments.

PJ (Jersey City): Rosario has been good in Cleveland, Gimenez has….not. Is he just a 4A guy at this point? Or is he still too young to give up on?
Keith Law: More than a 4A guy but never that good a prospect for me. Classic case of a team promoting a guy who’d be young for his levels and look good for teams that rely heavily on models that take that into account. But I think he can be a good utility guy or maybe have a long career as a regular SS on teams that don’t have a better option around.

Buck: Aaron Ashby back of rotation type?
Keith Law: Really think he’s a reliever. Delivery and command point there.

Mrs. Webber: “2001” was so pointlessly boring — nothing happens for three excruciating hours.  But I thought Stanley Kubrick was incredibly overrated; he ruined both “The Shining” and “A Clockwork Orange” by straying too far from the books.
Keith Law: I didn’t find 2001 boring, but I also didn’t like how far it strayed from its source book. I still have actually never seen The Shining, though.

Brett: Vinnie Pasquantino is 23 years old in AA FYI
Keith Law: I am aware of that, thank you. He’ll be 24 in a few weeks.

Bort: Do you prefer Frelick over Mitchell?
Keith Law: Frelick has the higher floor, and yes, in this case I would take him over Mitchell.

Max: Is Matt Brash on the verge of surpassing Hancock and Kirby in the Mariners stable of young arms?
Keith Law: No, definitely not. A prospect, yes, but not better than those guys.

Dan: Just scouting the box scores, Bryson Stott has had a really impressive year. Have you heard or seen anything that suggests that his major league outlook has improved?
Keith Law: Actually have heard the opposite from scouts this year.

Mac: Can Andrew Vaughn be anything more than a mistake hitter?
Keith Law: Yes. Isn’t he already more than that?

Danny: Do you think we’ll have more prep pitchers in the 2022 first round because of the purported depth or do you think the industry’s recent aversion pushes a lot of those guys to later rounds?
Keith Law: Most teams don’t want to take that risk; we might see 3-4 HS arms in the first round in a good year, but teams see the opportunity cost and would rather take those guys in the comp/second rounds. Also I think the HS bat group for 2022 is pretty strong.

Stan: Brendan Rodgers. Your thoughts on his progression this year? Future outlook? Thanks!
Keith Law: Two things I am pleased about. He’s playing regularly, finally. And he’s actually showing power on the road, too. I would still guess he’s more likely to hit .300 than hit 30 homers, but this is still good to see. I loved his bat in HS, and have been disappointed that his eye at the plate hasn’t been better at any level in pro ball – which could be a side effect of playing in great hitters’ parks, or a player development issue. But this is a good start and I still think he becomes an All-Star at 2b.

Mike Sixel: Pick one to answer: What happened to Max Kepler? Is there any realistic path to the Twins starting the year with a good MLB rotation next year? thanks!
Keith Law: Aaron Gleeman had a great piece on Kepler’s low batted ball quality leading to consistently low BABIPs.

Matt: To everyone shocked about what’s happening in Texas, elections have consequences and if you were paying attention, you knew this was gonna happen.
Keith Law: Yep. But I also think a lot of Texans are extremely happy with what’s happening there. They want to live in a theocracy as long as the victims are someone else.

Alex In Austin: Is it appropriate to comment on the atrocious details Jonah Keri admitted to this week?
Keith Law: Sure. Fuck that guy. I hope he rots in jail for a long time. But white men tend to get lighter sentences, and I’m not optimistic he’ll get a sentence commensurate with his crime or the possible threat he still poses.

Thomas: It’s been like thirty minutes and you’ve already already suggested that three people (Bauer, Chipper, Alderson), who are accomplished in the game, should be removed from the sport. Who made you the hall monitor? Doesn’t this get tiring?
Keith Law: Bauer is the only one on that list who might be removed from the sport, and if you’re arguing against that, we don’t have a whole lot of common ground here.

Keith Law School: Before I ask my question, I want to say I enjoy everything you write about outside of baseball.  My question though, is do you ever get “outrage fatigue”? I get that there’s a lot wrong in the world, but I feel like it’s always been that way and it always will. Do you ever take a moment or two and just smell roses and feel content and happy at all?
Keith Law: Remember what I wrote earlier about overweighting certain anecdotes? You’re doing that right now. And making a really absurd inference about my overall state of mind from a superficial view of things I write and say online – especially in a forum like this, where people are asking pointed (and very good!) questions.

Trevor: Thoughts on a Mark Appel comeback?
Keith Law: Completely rooting for him. We have more track record of pitchers coming back after years away than hitters doing so. But he’s not even close to average control yet and that’s a big hurdle.

Ned: Who are you higher on long-term: Jake Burger or Gavin Sheets?
Keith Law: Give me Burger.
Keith Law: mmmm …. burger

Andy: Jose Barrero – guy or GUY?
Keith Law: GUY. Top 75 or so.

Guest: Is Drew Rasmussen a legit starting pitcher?
Keith Law: Two time TJ recipient with heavy use in college. Odds are against it.

Good Eye: How do you distinguish between being a hitter being passive and not selective?
Keith Law: I am not being flippant here when I say you have to watch the games.

Jay’s Dad: Tanner Houck seems like a possible future closer.  As a starter?  I’m not feeling it.
Keith Law: He has a great arm, but he doesn’t have a decent weapon for LHB and that’s going to be a problem in the long term. I think he’d be superb as a closer, but I also wouldn’t advocate moving him to relief yet.

Brett: Hey Keith – just FYI, I don’t think you’re an idiot and knew you knew Pasquantino’s age. Whoever that “Brett” is that added to my original question is not me. Weirdo.
Keith Law: I think Brett2 was trying to say Pasquantino wasn’t old for AA, but he is. Also, to be absolutely clear, I’m not saying Pasquantino is not a prospect, but that the extremely impressive production is not evidence that he’s suddenly a good prospect, if that makes sense. I feel like I should be rooting for him as a fellow paesano.

Danny: Luis Medina was great down the stretch in 2019 in A ball, was very good to start this season in high A, struggled for the better part of this season but has been much better as of late in AA. Has your opinion of whether he can stick in the rotation changed much this year?
Keith Law: I feel like you may be mis-stating my opinion on him. I was hoping to get him this week in Bowie but the storm threw everything off here. I’m hoping to get him in Somerset next week, maybe Wednesday if they hold to their current rotation.

Icarus: Do you think that Ha-Seong Kim will become an average hitter?  Should he be playing everyday in AAA instead of riding the bench in MLB?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s going to hit here, so I’m not sure sending him to AAA will address anything. Maybe he’s just a nice bench player.

Ben: Casey Mize has taken a giant step forward this year… is he our future ace?
Keith Law: I think so – but I’d like to see him use his splitter more.

Josh: Are there any expected long term issues with Jordan Lawlers injury?  The DBacks can’t afford this.
Keith Law: Not that I know of.

Guest: How good is Julio Rodriguez going to be?
Keith Law: He’s going to hit for a ton of power. Maybe a 30 doubles/35 homer guy. RF only and he has some length to his swing that he’ll have to learn to work around.

Matt: Re: Rays. I was at the Reds-Cards game on Wednesday and attendance was ~10K. It’s just a different world right now and the Rays aren’t the only team failing to draw fans.
Keith Law: Also true. Pandemic, economic inequality, and the fact that MLB teams don’t have to draw fans to make money any more.

Matt: Interesting thing about 2001 – the book and the movie were written together by Kubrick and Clarke, so neither is really a “source” for the other.  There’s a terrific book about the entire creative process; I highly recommend it!
Keith Law: I did not know this. Thank you.

Paul: Has Tavares figured things out after spending some time in AAA and not having to work out his struggles in Texas?
Keith Law: For a guy who’s spent about 2/3 of a season in the majors, Taveras hasn’t hit as well in AAA (facing easier pitching) as I would have hoped. It’s more power, but less avg/BABIP.

Josh: I know vaccine mandates for 40 man guys have to be negotiated with the union, but could a team have a mandate for non-40 man players?  Would players have enough leverage to fight it?
Keith Law: Probably a better question for a lawyer.

Noah: I can’t believe some of the people here are suggesting that you talking about shitty people being removed from their jobs (in response to people like me asking some of these questions) makes you some kind of scold.
Keith Law: Me neither.

John: Is there a reason to have hope this country can ever get along?  Seems like a large portion would rather see it burn than learn the meaning of compromise
Keith Law: How do you compromise with people who don’t accept the reality of climate change? Who think vaccines are dangerous (but horse paste isn’t)? Who don’t want basic science taught in schools? Who think women are chattel? Who refuse to see hard evidence of racism in front of them? You can’t compromise with religious fundamentalists. We learned that in Afghanistan. Why is it different here?

Keith Law School: You totally misread my question. I wasn’t trying to be a dick, I was just stating that most of your links are regarding the problems of the world.  It was an innocent question asking if you do take moments to enjoy the good parts of the world.
Keith Law: If you mean the Saturday links, it’s because that’s where the best writing tends to be. But when I find great writing on other topics, I include it too.

Uncle Eddie: Was this strikeout rate from Jarren Duran expected?  I feel like he’s taking too many hitting tips from Bobby Dalbec.
Keith Law: Also his first go-round in the majors. The gap between the minors and MLB seems to be bigger than ever right now.

Matt: Did you see that Bobby Flay and Giada special on the Food Network where they travel to Italy? Man, Italy has shot to the top of my places to visit.
Keith Law: I did not, but I don’t think I’d want to visit Italy with someone who thinks you put heavy cream in pasta alla carbonara. Italy is my favorite place in the world to visit, though. It’s not just the food, although the food is incredible. Italy may be a mess in a lot of ways, but the entire ethos – that work is a means, not an end, and life is to be enjoyed and appreciated – should be our model.

Jesse B: Andy Pages is striking out 30% of the time albeit with big time power. Do you think that’s something he can improve or will he always be a 3 outcome player?
Keith Law: He’s striking out 24% of the time, and with everything else he does, he’s a hell of a prospect.

Paul: I think more than ever the Republicans have done a great job of making issues black and white. So if its vaccines, voting rights, climate change, reproductive rights etc. as long as it “pisses of the libs” it must be good. As long as the issues continue to get drawn that way I don’t see how we ever pull out of this death spiral.
Keith Law: I agree.

Matt: Johnny Bench just tested positive and won’t be at Hall of Fame induction. He was vaccinated and still got sick.
Keith Law: You can get vaccinated and still get sick – but you are substantially less likely to require hospitalization, to require intubation, or to die. And you’re contagious for a shorter period of time. My wife had a breakthrough infection, and she did get sick, with some lingering symptoms even two weeks later, but she didn’t have to go to the hospital, and my daughter and I, who were both vaccinated later than my wife was, never so much as tested positive.

Eric: I’m not anti-vax or pro-ivermectin or any of those things – but don’t you think it is counterproductive that I can’t read a mainstream news report on ivermectin that actually discloses it’s a legitimate safe drug for human use? Not recommended for covid, but it has legitimate uses. Instead, 99% of the coverage would leave the reader believing it’s only used for farm animals.
Keith Law: I’m wondering what the benefit of including that point would be. It does have legitimate uses for certain worm parasites in the GI tract, although, unfortunately, it doesn’t work against guinea worm disease. But in an article on IVM and COVID, that seems like it’s not germane.

Keith: will Colas immediately be the White Sox top prospect and what do you think his ETA and impact might be on the big league club?
Keith Law: No, and I’d really like to see him face some actual pitching first.

Stephen: Is it worth Witt Jr. and/or Pratto getting some time in the majors this month?
Keith Law: I think so. I know the business side would say no, but I’d love to see those guys get 50-60 AB and a month in the MLB clubhouse.

Dr. Bob: RE: Passivity vs. selectivity. I could tell the difference by watching like you can, but player’s comments are sometimes telling. Kolten Wong said that STL wanted him to take more pitches. He intimated that he became more passive as a result. Now he’s being more aggressive and it’s working for him.
Keith Law: Some guys just shouldn’t hit like that. Some guys shouldn’t try to change their swings to hit for more loft. There is no one size fits all approach to hitting. I fall into that trap sometimes too, downgrading players for aspects of their swings that might not work for the majority of players but might work for them.

Brett: Is it entirely plausible that Kristian Robinson never plays another game for MLB?
Keith Law: I think that scenario is unlikely, but sure, not entirely impossible. It would be a shame because this seems to be a clear case of mental illness.

Guy B: Also the problem with the folks sucking up all the ivermectin is that they are making it harder for people who actually need the product, it’s pretty simple really.
Keith Law: Yep. And these ding-dongs are now taking up space in emergency rooms because IVM can cause terrible side effects when taken in non-therapeutic doses.

Corey: This season has demonstrated a significant difference between AAA and MLB pitching ad we’ve seen most prospects struggle when they come up. That being said, what to make of Franchy Cordero ?  He’s an MVP in Worcester but awful in Boston.  Is he a Wily Mo Pena-esque AAAA guy or does he figure it out eventually ?
Keith Law: I think he’s a 4A guy.

Paul: When you go to concerts etc. are you masking up? Are you taking any Covid precautions? ie  Are you only going to shows that require proof of vax or negative test?
Keith Law: Haven’t been to an indoor concert but the plan/hope is exactly that – we’ll mask, of course, but stick to shows that require those things. Philly venues can do so – my daughter and I went to a restaurant that asked to see our vax cards last week – but not all have chosen to. I know Johnny Brenda’s is asking for proof of vax.

John: Fair point on compromise, and agree on all of those issues as not really offering opportunity.  However, even areas where there is need (infrastructure, health care) there is zero compromise for any improvement.  I’m not saying to compromise principles but there should be reasonable areas of common ground to build better roads, or is that all lost as well?
Keith Law: That is a better question for someone who covers the swamp, really.

Rick: Do you still think Gore can be an ace down the road or are the struggles he’s had just too much to fix to get to that level?
Keith Law: Ace upside, positive signs in his return, long way between AZL success and the majors. Stuff is still top of the line.

Wil: Wanted to ask something I don’t know if you’ve been asked lately and everyone should be asked – How are you doing?
Keith Law: I’ll end with this, which Wil asked at the top of the chat. All things considered, we’re good. The last few weeks weren’t fun, but we’re fortunate, and we recognize it. We’re just trying to be prudent about the choices we make. Things are good here, and I hope that most of you can say the same, if not right now then very soon.
Keith Law: Thank you all for reading and for your patience with my relative absence the last few weeks. I do have a column due up on the Athletic on Monday, and should be able to get to games & to write more regularly this month. Stay safe this weekend, everyone – not only because of the pandemic, but because Labor Day is such a heavy travel weekend. Thanks again.

Klawchat 8/5/21.

Subscribers to the Athletic can check out my ranking of the top 50 prospects in the minors right now as well as all of my trade deadline breakdowns.

Keith Law: I’m getting older too. Klawchat.

Kevin: Crossing my fingers that whenever they sign a new CBA, they allow trades of draft picks. Are you in favor of this as well?
Keith Law: I wrote a column for ESPN in either 2006 or 2007 arguing that it was in all parties’ best interests to allow trading of draft picks. My view hasn’t changed. Unfortunately neither side has a strong incentive to push for this in the CBA negotiations.

davealden53: I find referring to the extra-inning gimmicks as “phantom runners” to be confusing imprecise.  Those are real flesh-and-blood players on second base, unlike the imaginary runners of backyard wiffle-ball games.  What’s “phantom” is how the players reached second base.  I propose retiring “phantom runners” in favor of “phantom doubles”.  But whatever we call it, I hope it goes away.
Keith Law: Yeah, call it whatever you want, it’s gimmickry of the worst sort.

Frank: The biggest issue to me with the whole Rocker situation is he now has to sit out another year.  If the team that drafts a player doesnt want to sign him for medical reasons, then he should be free to go sign with whomever he wishes.  Seems incredibly unfair to the player to force him to delay his professional career by an entire year.
Keith Law: Hold on – that’s not accurate. He had the choice to submit his MRI to MLB, and thus to all teams before the draft. Had he done so, and any team drafting him then declined to make him an offer of at least 40% of slot, he would be a free agent. He declined to submit the MRI, and this is the consequence of that action. This mechanism of submitting MRIs predraft is not perfect but it better protects player and team than the old system. If a player chooses not to use that system, he must accept the consequences of that choice. The draft itself is a labor-exploiting farce, but this mechanism is one of the few aspects of it that does protect the player’s rights.
Keith Law: What if some other team saw Rocker’s MRI and disagreed with the Mets’ doctors? Then he would have gone somewhere fairly high and gotten paid accordingly – maybe not what the Mets offered, but more than the $0 he has now. And if all teams saw the MRI and said “oh hell no,” he’s no worse off than he is today anyway.

Sam: Were you surprised at how much of a discount Henry Davis signed for?  With no clear cut #1 did the Pirates put out a number to 3-4 guys and he was the one who said yes?
Keith Law: Not surprised, not in this draft class without a clear-cut #1.

Marlin Guy: Hi Keith! What’s your evaluation of Jazz Chisholm at this point? Thanks!
Keith Law: No change. I still think he’s got a real chance to be a star.

Tom: Luis Garcia of the Nats looked great in AAA and even hit 2 homers last night. I know you’ve never been particularly bullish, but is there a chance he has really turned a corner offensively at just 21.
Keith Law: Unless there’s been some real change in his swing that I don’t know about, no, not really. I’m not a huge believer in players who spend a good amount of time in the majors and then go back down and rake in triple-A, facing far worse pitching than they did in the majors. Imagine if a player was promoted to double A, struggled badly, then was returned to high- or even low-A and mashed. You’d look askance at that performance too.

Tom: this may be more of a nate silver question, but do you think theres data to suggest that the anti-vaxxers, most of whom are GOP, that are passing away from COVID, are going to hurt future election results for GOP?
Keith Law: I’m sorry, you stole that take from Nate, although I’m glad it’s getting some visibility.

JP: What did you think of Luis Gil’s MLB debut?
Keith Law: Great fastball, not enough of anything else.

Appa Yip Yip: What’s up with Kevin Smith (of the Blue Jays, not Silent Bob)?
Keith Law: Now that is a swing change guy. Different player than he was pre-COVID (or at Maryland, for that matter). He’s gone from a 3 (nothing) to a 5 (everyday player).

Tom: Other than a not so fast fastball, gotta like what we see from braxton garrett. Is there no. 2 upside here?
Keith Law: No, there’s not. He’s been pretty lucky so far, and the stuff just hasn’t come all the way back post-surgery. I would love to be wrong – he pitched one of the best games I’ve ever seen from a HS pitcher – but even with another mph on his fastball his arsenal is still light.

Fitzy: Is Austin Martin still a top 100 prospect in your view? I believe a lot of my fellow Jays fans were too hung up on his pre-season ranking and believe we got absolutely fleeced for Berrios.
Keith Law: He was on the top 50 linked at the top of this post.

JG: JR Richard passed away last night.  Thoughts…  If he hadn’t had that stroke was he on a HOF trajectory?
Keith Law: Died of COVID-19. Get your vaccine, folks. And yes, I think he was, if he held up – he was throwing exceptionally hard for his era and he might have had the sort of arm problems we saw often at the time.

Jonesy: Should the Jays be doing everything in their power to extend Semien and Ray right now?
Keith Law: No. It all comes down to cost.

Dan: Granted it’s a selected sample size but the Tigers look like a good(!) team since April ended. How much should be attributed to finally having a competent manager as well as positive contributions from Baddoo etc?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t undersell the switch to a competent manager. Also some of the rebuild is starting to hit the majors now.

Jeff: After the Cubs’ firesale, where you would now rank the Cubs’ farm system?
Keith Law: Eyeballing it, around the median. Huge improvement over preseason.

Justin: Would you rather have Henry Davis+Lonnie White, or Leiter+Some College Senior for the identical $7.9 mil of bonus pool?
Keith Law: Davis and White, although I think Davis + Chandler is the better 1-2 combo. Hitters over pitchers, for one thing, and Davis > Leiter anyway.

OJ1977: Seems like Austin Martin’s prospect standing has really dropped, at least in the eyes of Jays management…has his ceiling dropped given his lack of a defensive position and absence of power?
Keith Law: I wrote that. All of it.

Mike: can brett baty stick at 3B long-term? 30 hr potential??
Keith Law: I think he has a real chance to stay at 3b, maybe 50/50, up from maybe 10-20% odds back in HS.

Jake: Thanks for the chat, Keith! In your estimation has Jake Eder shown enough to be a back end top 100 guy? If so, was he close to your updated top 50?
Keith Law: Yes and yes. Legit. Might be better than Meyer, really.

Dark Knight: Riley Greene performing well at AA as a 20 yr old is impressive.  Does he have enough power to hit 20+ hrs in the majors?
Keith Law: I would put the o/u at 25. He’s real. I think I’m seeing him tonight.

Steve Cohen: What do I do now?  The system seems pretty top heavy with high A and AA players.  The failure to get any trades done is a consequence of the top heavy system – the list of desirable prospects is short.  Missing on Kumar I assume is a huge mistake (so much for the opposite of lolMets). What does this mean for the system and the future?
Keith Law: see above on Rocker. It is just wrong to peg this as a Mets error when nobody but the team and Rocker’s group know what was in the medicals. They also swapped a lot of talent in previous deals. I still think they’re well positioned to continue contending into the next several years.

Tom: Kyle Stowers is putting up pretty big numbers in AA (although in only 161 PA).  Any hope for him?
Keith Law: Fourth OF. Seen him a bunch.

Andrew: How would you grade the O’s rebuild to date. When is it fair to start building expectations for the major league club?
Keith Law: It’s fair, not great, hurt by the fact that the veterans were all traded (generally for not enough return) before the new regime came in; the awful luck with Kjerstad; and a continued lack of any production from the international side.

Ira: How can the Mets ever build up a farm system when they purposely draft under slot value for the entire draft for the purpose of signing a top pick, and then not sign that pick? Seems to me if many teams were afraid of Rocker’s physical status and he dropped, then the Mets should have maybe picked a different player.
Keith Law: Revisionist history. Don’t know any teams that were “afraid of Rocker’s physical status.” However, I would argue the Mets should have taken Will Taylor or another high-bonus HS kid in the 11th round and handed him the money they didn’t give Rocker.

Jay: Of the things Theo Epstein has discussed for improving the game (moving the mound, limits on shifts, pitch clocks, limiting # of pitchers on the roster) do you like any of them and which do you think can have the biggest positive impact?
Keith Law: Pitch clocks are a mixed bag – they do move the game along in an appreciable way, but may increase pitcher injuries. I like limiting the number of pitchers on the roster to try to discourage too many mid-inning pitching changes. But if you really want to speed the game up, you need shorter commercial breaks, and nobody wants to touch that.

Newt: If Dermis Garcia ever got a season with 600 PAs in the majors, would he be the inaugural member of the 30 HR, 350K Club?
Keith Law: He has 40 homer power and would probably strike out 50% of the time, enough that he’d never sniff 30 or even 20 homers.

Sean: Hi Keith, anything in Detmers start that gave you pause on his upside?  Curve looked great but fastball didn’t seem to get many misses, even holding the mid 90s velo.  Maybe just command jitters in his first start?
Keith Law: I don’t like judging any pitcher on his first major league start.

Vin: Hi Keith. Thanks for these chats. How do you evaluate the job Kapler has done with the Giants? Are there specific things he’s doing differently now than when he was in Philly?
Keith Law: Entire organizational approach to hitting has changed under him. I think he’s the manager of the year. That club has no business being this good.

Dallas: There is a Voltaggio brother’s cooking competition on Discovery+ that’s fantastic. Nicky Lopez is past 2.0 WAR on both BR and FG and could finish around 3.0 WAR. If this is who he is, is that a starting 2B going forward or still more of a very quality utility player (as a lot of that WAR is based on SS defense). Thanks.
Keith Law: I think he’s an everyday guy.

Vin: Could Luis Matos make a leap into the top 100 next season?
Keith Law: Yes. I think he was my Giants sleeper prospect this year or maybe last year before the shutdown.

Guest: I thought the Mets had to offer Rocker 40% of the slot to get the pick last year? Did that rule change?
Keith Law: No, the rule is the same, but only applies if the player complies with the MRI program.

Guest: What do you think the PA should be aiming for in the next CBA? Reduced service time requirement to FA? Arb eligible earlier?
Keith Law: I mean, yes, all of the above. distributing more money to players with less than 6 years service time should be a goal – those are the players whose salaries are artificially suppressed by the current system.

Luke: Anecdotally, 80-grade tools seem more commonly placed on players for arm strength, speed, raw power. Less common for hit and glove. The latter are more difficult to measure and thus harder to have confidence in. But given 20-80 is based on a distribution, would we expect the same number of 80s league-wide for each tool?
Keith Law: 20-80 is not based on a distribution. That story has been retconned on to the scale.

Justin: Is Adam Frazier a pretty good comparison for Tucupita Marcano?  Maybe Marcano needs to bulk up a little bit to make that possible?
Keith Law: I hate comps but I don’t hate that one.

Justin: Do you think Hoy Park can be a 1.5 WAR type SS and/or Super Util?
Keith Law: No. Way under that one.

Tony: This might require a tinfoil hat on my end, but is there a chance that the Orioles are keeping Rutschman in Double A for the whole year, so they have a ready-made excuse for keeping him down next year, too? Given where we are in the calendar, it feels unlikely they’d promote him for three weeks
Keith Law: TFH. I don’t believe this for a second. I do wonder if they’re keeping him in Bowie because it’s the nearby affiliate and they’ve always tried to keep Bowie competitive.

Shaun: How have you seen Torkelson progress this year,’? Expected? Over expectations?
Keith Law: Looked very good at the Futures Game. Should see him tonight too.

Steve: Is a Sox fan and liked Madrigal, though not devastated to see him gone. As a scout, what makes you so certain that power can’t develop like it did with Jose Altuve or other similar bodied players? Is he just an outlier and it’s unfair to compare? What are the metrics that show potential power with maturation?
Keith Law: He doesn’t look anything at all like Altuve. Really – just look at their builds and frames. They’re both short. I’m 5’6″, Altuve is 5’5″ if that, but I couldn’t possibly be as muscular as Altuve was, even if you put me on a weight training program (and I wasn’t 48, etc., etc.). You need strength, including real hand and forearm strength, to hit for power, or even just to hit with any authority.

Ryan: Who do you think has higher upside between Jordan Lawlar and Corbin Carroll? As a Dbacks fan, I can’t remember the last time I was this excited for the future.
Keith Law: Carroll.

Reb Wiseau: Are you surprised that Jud Fabian didn’t sign with the Red Sox?
Keith Law: No, but that’s not to his credit. Dude punched out 79 times this year and was just as bad at the end of the year as he was at the beginning. He was lucky to get an offer of first round money. Now he’ll be an older 21 in what might be a stronger draft class next year. He’d better be WAY better at the plate to get that kind of payout again.

Ben: Is this season out of nowhere for Willy Adames, or did the Brewers get a real star at SS?
Keith Law: Top 100 prospect several times, on my breakouts list for 2020, so definitely not out of nowhere, but maybe a year late.

Andy: Anyone who thinks of Tommy John as riskless should look up Brady Aiken, who went from #1 overall pick to being out of baseball by 24.
Keith Law: Well, he had something wrong in his elbow that made TJ itself a riskier proposition. (He’s also still in Cleveland’s system, just on the IL.) But some players don’t come back all the way from TJ. And, in an extreme outlier, a pitcher at George Mason died after TJ surgery – I don’t know if it was an infection or bleeding or something else – which I think should remind us all that Tommy John surgery is surgery, and not minor surgery at that. No surgery is riskless.

Noah: Hi Keith, as always, thank you for your chats.  As a fellow anxiety-sufferer and believer in science and feminist, the baseball stuff is just the icing on the cake for me.  But my question is: given what Sandy Alderson has overseen in terms of hiring personnel with red flags (i.e. multiple  sexual harassment hires), why isn’t there more of an outcry for him to resign?  It seems that not only the media, the Mets organization, but also fans are just sweeping this under the rug and forgetting about it.
Keith Law: I’ve had a few people around MLB ask the same question. If Sandy was responsible, then why isn’t he being held accountable, and if he wasn’t responsible, well, why not? I don’t have an answer to that. I wouldn’t be shocked if he stepped aside at the end of this year, especially now that a few of his top lieutenants have been promoted/extended.

Brendan: Hi Keith! Its highly unlikely that to ever happen but in the wake of the Rocker situation I’ve seen a couple sport writers and many fans call for the end of the draft (unfair labor practices/manipulation and all). If that were to happen, what could be done to prevent all the top prospects from signing with one team? Perhaps a hybrid system where teams still receive the equivalent of their bonus pools and they can sign as many “draft picks” as they want with that money with fines and penalties similar to the international pool rules for exceeding your allotted money? Thanks!
Keith Law: Why would all of the top prospects sign with one team so they can fight for the finite amount of playing time available?

Dungeon Master: any change on Triston Casas evaluation this year? Results seem solid but not spectacular. Is he the Red Sox 1B by next summer? I know tough for a 1B to hit top 50, but hoping the bat is good enough to play there for a first division team.
Keith Law: No change. Good prospect, waiting for more thump to show up.

Ian: Any changes to the view of Nick Yorke and/or Blaze Jordan after some of their recent successes?
Keith Law: Small samples, and Jordan did it in the Florida Man League, but it’s all very promising, especially seeing Jordan show some power in games (while playing below sea level down there). Also don’t sleep on Brandon Walter. Delaware lefty, 26th rounder, now up to 97 with a starter look.

Mike: Any restaurant recommendations near Rehoboth/Dewey?
Keith Law: The Station & Eggcelent in Lewes. Rise Up coffee in Rehoboth. I try not to eat down at Rehoboth because it’s basically Grotto’s and Thrasher’s on an infinite loop.

Bradley: What are your thoughts on how the Cubs did overall on prospects received in their trades?  Specifically Madrigal and Heuer for Kimbrel?
Keith Law: I wrote up all my Cubs deadline thoughts here.

Evan R.: Astros prospect Hunter Brown…the next Walker Buehler?
Keith Law: I mean, Brown has great shit, top 25 prospect in baseball kind of shit … but he’s only had anything approaching average control for about six weeks now.

Sean: The Graveman trade broke our hearts, but this Abraham Toro guy seems like an infielder that can switch hit with power and speed. What do you see in him?
Keith Law: The trade of a journeyman reliever in the midst of his first really good season broke your hearts? I like Toro, more like a  multi-position utility guy who can play close to every day, but much prefer him to Graveman.

Coffee Drinker: You like coffee. I like coffee. What beans do you typically get and from where?
Keith Law: All over. I buy beans whenever I travel. Right now I’m using some Royal Mile Breakfast Jawn (light roast) beans for espresso and a Colombian from GIV coffee in Canton, CT, for pour-over.

Dark Knight: Dodgers have been giving Gavin Lux opportunities for couple years… do you see him more as a Carter Kieboom/ Biggio?  or still someone who will be an above avg regular?
Keith Law: Chance to be a star. Way better than those other two. Not even in the same league in tools or ability.

Sean: Any intel as to why the Red Sox didn’t beat the Yankees offer for Rizzo?  It seems like it wasn’t a prospect quality issue and the SSS results are…frustrating
Keith Law: Disagree. Prospects the Cubs got were good.

Mike: Along the same line as the Luis Garcia question – do you feel the same about Jose Barrero? He seems to be walking much more than he did in the past.
Keith Law: Yes, but I feel a little better about his power potential because it was always there.

Jon: Have you been able to see or hear anything new about any Cardinals prospects like Gorman, Liberatore, or Thompson?
Keith Law: I saw Gorman and Liberatore in Denver and wrote them up.

Mike: I’ve seen Riley Greene a bunch of times and see flashes of Eastern League top prospects Gregory Polanco and Dom Brown with him due to a slow bat, is he closer to a 5 level talent than a 6?
Keith Law: Uh … no, that’s not accurate at all.

John: Are you a believer in Samad Taylor? The power has kind of come out of nowhere.
Keith Law: He’s a real prospect. Possible regular.

Guest: Hi Keith– I was curious what, if anything, you’ve heard about George Valera this year. Walk rate seems pretty impressive for such a young guy at that level.
Keith Law: Very positive reports. Wanted to see him in the Futures Game too.

Josh: You seem fairly high on Randy Vasquez.  Where does he rank compared to endless amount of right handers the Yankees have like Medina, Gil, Way, Yoendrys Gomez, etc.
Keith Law: Less famous, more likely to be a starter than Medina, Gil, or Way, I think.

Dark Knight: Andre Jackson just pitched well in AA and promoted to AAA.  LA has Pepiot & Miller/Beeter that looks like they’ll be ready soon.  Will LA use the Gonsolin model for these guys?
Keith Law: I definitely would with Jackson, who is still ‘young’ in pitching experience (but not young for a prospect).

Mac: Are you surprised the White Sox moved on from Nick Madrigal so quickly?
Keith Law: No. They’re smart people. They saw his ceiling as well as his floor and made a calculated decision.

Chris: Trying not to read the stat lines on less heralded guys but do the Yanks have anything in Waldichuk, Wesneski, and Sears?  (Was gonna ask about Hauver, Otto, and Junk too but no longer care!)
Keith Law: I wrote up Wesneski, think he’s a reliever, but I know guys who have him in as a starter. Waldichuk is more on the starter/reliever bubble.

Alex In Austin: Is there any value in bringing up Witt Jr now to start getting challenged at the major league level or does it make more long term sense to wait to start the clock?
Keith Law: I’d love to see him up in September for that very reason. They might not do so for 40-man reasons but I think it’ll help his development to come up for a few weeks, even if he gets overpowered. He’ll make the adjustment.

Jason: Kelenic has been really bad in MLB and the list of other players who have begun their career this bad is very discouraging despite the great MiLB numbers. How much do you weigh historical trends when projecting his future?
Keith Law: Not at all, since we are in the highest K% era in the sport’s history.

Matt: Is the Jose Miranda breakout legit?
Keith Law: Been talking about him for years, and I think I said this in the last chat too. He can hit.

Ben: So a lot of Tiger’s fan understand the circumstances with Manning being up now, even though he is clearly not ready. But I saw a comparison between his statcast and Mike Pelfrey’s and made me sick. Even tho he isn’t ready, shouldn’t he be putting up better metrics than that as is? Has your overall outlook on his future changed?
Keith Law: He wasn’t 100% last year, with a sore shoulder, and then hasn’t been good at any level this year. My inference is that he never got ‘right.’ It seems awfully coincidental that he should get hurt for the first time, and then after that struggle like he hasn’t since he was still in extended spring training a year after the draft.

Dave Mayer: Hi Keith, Thoughts on Nick Lodolo?  Was he close on your mid season top 50?
Keith Law: Not close – top 100, not top 50. Big leaguer for sure, not a huge ceiling.

Jason: The Jays obviously soured on Austin Martin. Do you think the trade also speaks to them thinking highly of Groshans and how do you feel about Groshans future?
Keith Law: I don’t have great reports from this year on Groshans.

Arnold: In last week’s deadline deals, which team is most likely to regret the prospect they gave up for the two-month rental they received?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t shock anyone if Martin became a star after all. If you want a slightly more obscure name, Kevin Alcantara is a longshot, but also probably has the most upside of all the guys the Cubs got.

Roger: What do you think is the ETA on Volpe and does he have what it takes to stick at SS?
Keith Law: Could be up by end of 2022; my best guess is he’s good enough to stay at short, maybe even be a 55 defender there, but that the Yankees (or whoever) would try to get a 60 or better guy to replace him and move him to second. He’s not going to hurt you with his glove, though.

Barry: I’ve read The Inside Game and know your thoughts on drafting high school pitchers. Do you think the industry agrees with you and maybe the Phillies think they found a market inefficiency or (based on recent history) are they just bad at drafting?
Keith Law: I know some execs agree with me, but obviously not all do, and if nobody is taking HS pitchers in the first round at all, that would probably change the data, right? Suddenly if there are only 1 or 2 HS arms going in the first round each year, we might find their failure rate is similar to that of other player types.

Andy: Could the Mets have seen the MRI on Rocker, said nothing, signed him, rested him due to a full college season and then tried to trade him in the offseason? Would that have gone afoul of disclosure rules, even though he didn’t have an injury per se?
Keith Law: Other teams would have asked to see the MRI.

Ryan: Can Touki still be a #2 or better starter for the Braves?
Keith Law: He has that potential. I think he has ace stuff, really, but prior to those two starts when he came back this year (before the one against the Brewers), he’d never really shown the command to be a starter. It was always a bet on ridiculous stuff and +++ athleticism.

Dark Knight: Is Josh Winder for real?  Has a chance to be a #3?
Keith Law: Yes.

Ryan: What happened to Hiura? Does he just need a change of scenery?
Keith Law: The Brewers tried to turn him into a big launch-angle, swing-up for power guy, and it has ruined him as a hitter. He’s a zero at the plate right now. I don’t know anyone who could hit the way he’s swinging. It’s aggravating – this kid was going to make a ton of money just hitting for average with lots of doubles, and someone took that away from him to chase the latest fad. Swing optimization has worked wonders for some players, but it is not a one-size-fits-all solution.

Buck: Does Rowdy Tellez have at least platoon potential or not even that?
Keith Law: Not really. A platoon DH isn’t worth the roster spot.

ssinole: What are your thoughts on Andrew Vaughn? Learning a new position,  playing it pretty well and now he’s starting to mash RHP.
Keith Law: Big fan. Thought for bat alone he was better than Rutschmann, but Adley had the positional value.

Zac: Even if Jackson Jobe becomes the greatest pitcher of all time, doesn’t Al Avila still deserve criticism for taking a huge risk at 3? I’m sure if Jobe becomes a star, people will compliment Avila for the pick when he actually should be criticized.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s a process vs results issue. This was not a great process, given who else was on the board and the base rate of HS pitchers. It may still yield great results.

Dave: A lot of people seem to think that the A’s to Vegas is going to happen. Is that really a great market, especially considering Lake Mead is drying up and they already have two pro teams?
Keith Law: Worst market. Bad demographics, bad weather, and as you said, too much competition already.
Keith Law: The NBA has been quite savvy about moving into new markets, and they haven’t toyed with this idea yet. Says something.

Danny: I read on Baseball America that Austin Wells’s defense is looking rough? Have you heard similar sentiments and where would you move him if he’s not a catcher?
Keith Law: Said that before the draft. He can really hit but he’s not a catcher.

Paul: Reading your reviews, you mentioned Fabian has some big holes in his swing. Do you think  he jumps up to the top of the first round next year?
Keith Law: Extremely unlikely. Can’t say never, but he has to make some huge adjustments that he didn’t make this year, and he’ll be evaluated against a higher standard for his experience level.

Dark Knight: Seth Beer the future 1B for ARI as soon as next year?  Can he be the prototypical power bat at the corner?
Keith Law: I don’t buy it. Below average defensive 1B, for one thing.

Kretin: Chris Rodriguez seemed to do ok in his first MLB start. Do you think he will be durable enough to stick as a starter?
Keith Law: Great arm, tough delivery and history of back problems make me skeptical.

CVD: Surprised by the James Wood overslot?
Keith Law: Floored. Area scouts I know were very wary of him.

Justin: What’s the deal with Bryse Wilson?  Is he a guy who needs to move to relief to see if the stuff ticks up?
Keith Law: No, the velocity isn’t the issue, but the secondary stuff is. Eager to see if working with a new coaching staff/org can help him develop a better slider, in particular.

Mike: It’s still a small sample, but to clarify the two homers Luis Garcia hit last night were vs. the Phillies, not in AAA
Keith Law: I mean …

Ken: Have you written about Jose Miranda at all? Just read a Gleeman post noting he has the best OPS for a minor leaguer in the orgs history. Curious how this boosts his stock.
Keith Law: Several times. He’s been on my Twins rankings for a few years.

Jerome: Have you been watching Olympic baseball? Thoughts on kazmir thinking he can pitch in the MLB again
Keith Law: Not a single pitch.

Zach: What will it take for there to be actual, impactful changes to the minor league system a la the Astros providing housing for all their minor leaguers? I know it’s a battle between billionaires wanting to cheap out as much as possible vs protecting their investments, is there anyway we can help move the needle?
Keith Law: Public pressure. Britt Ghiroli’s article today should help. MLB did an end run around labor laws to get minor leaguers declared “seasonal employees.” The only thing that will change their minds is public pressure to do so.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all so much for reading. I’ll have a scouting notebook up in the next few days for subscribers.

Klawchat 7/16/21.

Starting at 3 pm ET. My team-by-team draft recaps are now up for subscribers to The Athletic:
AL East
AL Central
AL West
NL East
NL Central
NL West

Keith Law: D4 damage with the ill behavior. Klawchat.

Debbie: What kind of offensive ceiling does Francisco Alvarez possess? Did his Future Game BP change your raw power grade on him?
Keith Law: I think it’s 70 power, but no, I didn’t change anything off the Futures Game look. I’d just seen him two weeks earlier in regular games anyway.

Carl: Can Cole Winn be a mid-rotation starter? Despite the home run during the Futures Game, he looked impressive.
Keith Law: He did look impressive and that’s what I think he is.

mike sixel: Buxton: traded in the next 12 months, or signed to stay in MN? How about Berrios?
Keith Law: I’d guess they sign Buxton and trade Berrios. Buxton might give them some discount given how often he’s been hurt. I can’t see them going 5 years on Berrios, but he could get that in free agency.

Joel: Hi, Keith. Thanks for the fantastic draft coverage throughout the past three months. If you were given the authority to make unilateral changes to improve the draft, what changes would you make?
Keith Law: Make picks tradeable, first and foremost. I’d also consider a lottery for the top picks in the draft, or something to deter any thought of teams tanking (although I doubt anyone is explicitly tanking for draft position).

JJ: Are Jarren Duran’s home/road splits a concern?  The new ballpark in Worcester seems to be a hitter’s park.
Keith Law: It is a hitter’s park – it’s on a hill, right? – but his power is real.

Robert: 20 pitchers! It’s concerning that despite going pitching heavy the last few years they still felt the need to do this.
Keith Law: It’s a gimmick, I think. But I like what they did up top.

David: Any idea what’s wrong with Blake Snell? He’s denied injury but has looked utterly lost on the mound this year.
Keith Law: I’m assuming it’s an injury of some sort.

Nacho: Thoughts on Brennan Davis? Futures game aside, he’s seems to be making adjustments and is crushing AA at a young age. Could he be a top 25 prospect by year-end?
Keith Law: He’s top 50 now, at least. I’m a fan.

Jon G: The Cubs used their first two picks on day 3 on preps that publicly said no within a day. Is this necessarily a sign of bad process within the draft room?
Keith Law: No, those picks are usually throwaways, or just senior signs to fill rosters.
Keith Law: You take those HS kids on the off chance that they come to their senses change their minds before heading to college.

Nils: What exactly makes a pitcher “home run prone”?  Hear that as a knock on some prospects, but is that a trait that is fixable?
Keith Law: Usually it’s a fastball thing – their fastballs lack life or movement, and if they get too much of the heart of the zone, hitters hit them. Far.

Himself: When a team like the pirates are able to draft 4 elite guys like they did, are they concerned that they’ll be available at each pick or fairly certain because of the relative cost and bonus pool management for other clubs?
Keith Law: Those teams have negotiated with those players’ advisers to come to verbal agreements – if your player is there, we will take him and pay him $X – and the advisers will then try to deter other teams from taking those players.
Keith Law: There are no guarantees, but that’s the tacit agreement that holds up the system.

Shaughn B: Hey Keith, read the recaps – thanks for those! Were there any team drafts you thought were more in line with the approach you would’ve taken? Any that went way against the grain of an approach you agree with?
Keith Law: The Phillies went heavy on high school pitching, which you know I don’t favor, especially not in the first round. I think the Reds had my favorite draft and the one that most mirrored my philosophy.

Nate: It’s been a very disappointing season to be a Twins fan, but one of the pleasant surprises has been seeing Jose Miranda’s improvement. How much has his outlook changed from a year ago? Can he be an everyday third baseman?
Keith Law: I loved him in his draft year and the Twins, to their credit, have always been steadfast in their (outward) belief that he’d hit. He could be a regular, yes.

John: Aside from the feature ASG events themselves, how was your experience in Denver this week?
Keith Law: Great! Good city for this event. Loved that I could walk everywhere. Had amazing coffee at Little Owl and grade 80 sushi at Sushi Den. The light rail is great too. Not sure where the city put all the oxygen, though.

Eric: With the performance of Tork, Greene & Dingler, not to mention the emergence of Baddoo, is it fair to say Detroit’s rebuild all of a sudden looks much more promising than one might have thought before the season?
Keith Law: Yes, I think so. Manning’s regression hurts a little.

John: The Red Sox seem to think their history with training hitters means they can fix the holes in Fabian’s swing.  Any reason to believe that?
Keith Law: Didn’t work with Dalbec. It’s not a “hole” per se but a complete and utter inability to make an adjustment. He couldn’t hit sliders when the season started, and he couldn’t hit them when the season ended.

Sandy Alderson: Is Rocker’s ETA 2022?
Keith Law: Maybe end of 2022, but I’d rather take it a little slower with him than I would with Leiter.

John: What’s the youngest player that you’ve ever scouted?
Keith Law: I saw Bryce Harper at 15. I was in the DR once, primarily to see Cuban free agent Eddy Julio Martinez, and saw some 14-year-olds. Stir Candelario, who is now in the Rays’ system, was one of them.

Bill S.: Keith – great work on the draft!  Your work is very much appreciated.  Regarding Henry Davis – he impressed me when I listened to him on your podcast this spring.  He seems very confident and cerebral, yet humble.  Seemed to have strong leadership qualities.  When evaluating a prospect for the draft, how much stock do teams put in those characteristics?  Thank you.
Keith Law: Some teams weigh that stuff extremely heavily, some don’t care at all. I would consider this kind of makeup – he made it very clear he’s a student of the game and determined to improve even in small areas. I wouldn’t be as concerned with leadership skills; not every player has to be a leader and I think in general teams that do weigh that characteristic end up putting too much weight on it because it is impossible to objectively measure.

Reb Wiseau: Will Marcelo Mayer need appreciably more money over slot to sign with the Sox?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine why.

Pat: Did the Cubs just get Bryce Ball Player, or Bryce Broken Prospect?
Keith Law: He’s flawed, but has real power. The lost year really kills players like him.

Cole: As an Angels fan, I was pretty upset with Bachman over Rocker at 9 when it first happened, but the more I look into Bachman, the more intrigued I am. What are your thoughts on that specific decision?
Keith Law: Rocker is the better prospect, but by a small margin.
Keith Law: He’s also never missed a start, as far as I know, and Bachman did.

Sean: Thoughts on detmers at the futures game?  When will he be ready for the major league rotation?
Keith Law: He was in my Futures Game writeup. I would absolutely call him up this year.

Hanyo: I know it’s early for the 2022 draft, but since Conor Prielipp is most likely out for the entire 2022 season, how would you expect teams to look at him draft wise barring any setbacks? 1st round? Or is it more likely he comes back for the 2023 season to prove himself and that he’s healthy?
Keith Law: Teams really have no looks at him in college – 4 starts last year, 3 abbreviated ones this year, and then he blew out. The timing was terrible for him … but if ever there was a prospect who should consider the Draft League, it’s him. He’d be 13-14 months off surgery then. He could go to the Cape too, as long as he’s healthy.

Schmo: Do you see the draft being longer than 20 rounds in the future? I don’t see a reason for it, considering the cut short season leagues
Keith Law: Nope. It might end up shorter.

Kevin: how high as a newly drafted prospect debuted on your top 100 prospects? Has one every been a top 10 prospect?
Keith Law: Yes, almost certain that’s happened with Harper & Strasburg. I’m looking Harper up now…
Keith Law: Harper was #2 going into 2011, after Trout. That’s the record.

JP: The Braves have had many pitching prospects throughout their rebuild and recent success, with Muller maybe the last of the group from the rebuild years. Is Fried, Anderson and some of Soroka about right for what should have been expected from that group? It feels 1-2 players too low.
Keith Law: I hoped they’d get more out of that group – Toussaint, Wright, Wilson, Newcomb – but the clock hasn’t run out on them all, either. Maybe one or more of those guys find success elsewhere.

Schmo: What are your thoughts on a strategy about drafting guys after the 10th round? Think teams should go for a mix of unsignable, fringe signable, and signable guys, go for mostly fringe signable guys since it won’t lose any bonus money to not sign them, or go for mostly signable guys?
Keith Law: In the 11th and 12th rounds you should just take the best guys still on the board and offer them all your extra pool money, if you have any. Or, if they change their minds at the last second, you hold their rights.
Keith Law: After that just take the best guys you can for the limit and for whom you have playing time.

Joel: Keith, there’s been a lot of reporting about what a hard worker Henry Davis is, with a true drive to get better and maximize his talent. Honestly, I’ve always been somewhat skeptical about these accounts because they tend to feed into the traditional sports narrative of hard-working white guys vs. people of color relying on their natural ability. When you were working for the Blue Jays did you try to assess intangibles like attitude and, if so, how did you do it?
Keith Law: It’s more than that – players of color are far too often assumed to not work hard. The right way to interpret those data would be to gather all of it from your scouts, and then check to see if they have any implicit biases and adjust those makeup grades accordingly, That is, if Johnny Scout always has Black players’ makeup grades 5 points below those of white players, you adjust so they’re on the same scale. (And then maybe show Johnny the data and explain what’s going on.)

Sam: Where does Mayer fit into Boston’s rankings, for you? New #1?
Keith Law: I’m going to write a piece for next week on which teams just drafted their new #1 prospects. It’s fewer than usual, I think, in part because you had teams drafting high who already have elite prospects in their systems (Detroit, Baltimore).

TorkelsonMVP2028: If you were the Tigers GM, who would you have taken at 3? I feel like the selection of Jobe is textbook base rate neglect. The opportunity cost just isn’t there. Mayer or Kahlil Watson were my preferences.
Keith Law: Yep, Mayer would have been my pick.

Warbiscuit: I know you’re not a fan of comparing your lists compared to others, but MLB.com and BA and a few others had Ryan Bliss ranked around the 60’s-70’s range while you had him ranked 38 in your list and mocked him as the 28 pick. Do you think he will stick at SS(where others don’t think he will) or do you really believe in the bat? I know you liked he proved himself in the SEC.
Keith Law: I think he stays at shortstop, enough of a chance that it justified the higher ranking. The mocks were based on teams showing interest, though, not my personal opinion.

Preston: My 9-year-old just finished first year of kid pitch and got to play some catcher. But I’m burying the lede. He’s lefthanded! Are you coming across any LH catchers? And what’s the rationale against it from a strategic standpoint? There are so many RH hitters it would disrupt throwing out baserunners, though nobody steals anymore …
Keith Law: If your kid is LH and throws hard at all, he’s going to end up on the mound.

Nathan: There are some players that have been openly against vaccines (Simmons comes to mind).  Do you think less of them as a result?
Keith Law: I think less of them as people, not as players.

Mac: its fairly obvious money is the biggest factor in the MLB draft. What has to be changed to make talent the biggest factor?
Keith Law: Hard slotting would do that. It would also completely fuck the players over, especially the best ones.

Zach: Which twins arm of winder, balazovic or Duran do you have the most faith in?
Keith Law: Balazovic, Winder, Duran, in that order.

Bob: Has Vlad exceeded your expectations at this point or simply lived up to what you expected?
Keith Law: This is what he was supposed to be. Just took him an extra year or so.

Buster Bluth: Do you consider yourself high, low or about even with other scouts on Jarren Duran?  And does it seem odd to you to make the call when Kikè was finally starting to hit a little bit to go with the excellent defense?
Keith Law: Kiké is who he is. What he did in the last two weeks doesn’t change that at all.

Brett: Best chance of becoming a GUY between Tyler Freeman, Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Volpe?
Keith Law: Volpe, Gunnar, Freeman, in that order.

Sam Tiger: What do you think the upside is of Dillion Dingler?
Keith Law: All-Star catcher.

Guest: Your Yankees review was better than I expected (given that Sweeney was something like 89th on your top 100 and I don’t think Selvidge or Beck were in your top 100). Do you get the sense that Selvidge (and maybe Fitts) gets any overslot deal? Do they have a chance of signing either of the post 10th round high school Seans? (Hermann and Hard)
Keith Law: Selvidge and Fitts were better prospects in October than now, and I think they have to take less than they probably expected. I wonder if they can sign Hard because he’s a local kid and played on their scout teams. They were one of the only teams scouting him the day I saw him.

Arnold: Will Bednar’s draft stock rose through the College World Series as he pitched the Mississippi State Bulldogs to the national title, but with only two proven good pitches–fastball and slider–does he have enough for the major league level or can he develop his change-up that he did not have to use much in college?
Keith Law: I don’t really believe his stock rose then – he wasn’t as good as he was in his last outing every time out.
Keith Law: I wrote about his strengths and weaknesses in the Giants team report (linked up top).

Eh Team: Did Arizona really pick Lawlar without a deal in place?
Keith Law: Maybe. I mean, if he wants to walk away from $5.7MM+ and go to college, go for it. I don’t think any player has ever turned down a bonus that large.

Owen Sharts Stanalyticsplant: Is there any hope for an AFL season this year?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything yet. I am afraid they’ll cancel it to save the $4.73 they spend on the league each year.

The Jolly Roger: Adam Frazier for Nick Madrigal. Who says no?
Keith Law: Man, that is really interesting. I would guess the White Sox would say no … but it seems good for both sides, especially with Chicago in great position to win this year.

Bob: Gunnar Hogland might be a great pick for the Jays at 19, but what is the track record of pitchers who have had TJ in college?
Keith Law: I don’t believe it’s any different from pitchers who’ve had it in the minors.

Neez Duts: Why is the futures game just 7 innings? That maybe gives you one at bat for the prospects who start out on the bench. I hope they go back to 9 inning games in the future (totally intended)
Keith Law: Because of fears they wouldn’t have enough pitching for 9 innings. I hate the 7-inning format and hate that it’s on TV against a full slate of 15 MLB games.
Keith Law: Just do it another night. Do it Monday afternoon. Do it literally any other time the field is available.

Stevo: Hi Keith, thanks for the chat. How surprised were you that Rocker landed in the Mets’ lap?
Keith Law: I wasn’t, I mentioned that possibility at least a month ago. Everyone knew it was in play, at least.

Alex: Do you think the Orioles’ farm system has improved overall since the start of the season with the positive developments of Rodriguez, Henderson, Rutschman, Hall (barring health) etc.? What is their biggest need?
Keith Law: Yes, so far, so good, other than Kjerstad (totally beyond their control). Solid start for Joey Ortiz too. They still need more pitching, but who doesn’t?

buccoguin: Do teams have “agreements” or at least detailed conversations about demands with certain players.  IE did the Pirates have a good idea what Chandler and White would require to get them out of their football commitments?
Keith Law: Oh absolutely.

Tom: We should be expecting a very different Kelenic this time around, right?
Keith Law: Yes, I predict he has at least one hit in his first 35 at bats.

Guest: Damon Oppenheimer said that Brendon Beck is a guy who could move quickly and doesn’t have much to work on- just get innings. Do you agree and does that timeline sound like 1st half of next year for a debut?
Keith Law: I agree. Low ceiling, high floor.

John: You had Jarren Duran at #93 on your prospects list in the offseason. Approximately how far would he have moved up the list if you updated the ranking now?
Keith Law: I’m updating it next week. I’ll have to decide if I include players in the majors who haven’t exceeded rookie limits, though.

BD: Nats draft you said was low ceiling?   Why?
Keith Law: I said that because it was low ceiling (after House, who is all ceiling, no floor).

buccoguin: Thoughts on Mitch Keller at this point in the season?  Was he overhyped or just a rough start to his career?
Keith Law: He has needed a pitch for lefties for four years now, and we’ve seen no change (pun intended). He seems like a good candidate for a splitter, which would help solve the problem.

Brett: The Royals have been heavily criticized for taking prep arms with their early picks this draft. Dayton Moore stated they did this because they didn’t want college guys with “4th or 5th starter ceilings.” Besides seeming like an unnecessary shot at his 2018 class of college arms, do you see this as being a valid defense? Were the college arms available to KC at 7 “4th or 5th starter ceiling” types? I certainly hadn’t seen that ceiling placed on Rocker.
Keith Law: Even if that’s true, it omits the part about college starter prospects often having higher floors.
Keith Law: Rocker ain’t a 4th/5th starter, either. Nor is Bachman.

El Guapo: Jo Adele’s k% is below 24% and his OPS is north of .900 for the last month at AAA. It’s a small sample but the trend lines across all of his AAA works supports this directional improvement. This is basically what he was doing at AA in 2019 when everyone had him as a top 10-15 prospects at worst. He’s still only 22 and by most statistical standards doing well in AAA. Is this a case where we can’t unsee 2020? Or is there still a star player on there?
Keith Law: There ight still be a star there, but Salt Lake is a great place to hit, and I’m sure AAA pitching looks a good bit easier to hit than what he saw in the majors. He has to come back up to the majors at some point and show the progress is real.

Joe D.: Any idea how far over slot the Dodgers will have to go to sign Heubeck?  I assume Bruns will sign under-slot to balance things out within their draft pool?
Keith Law: I think they’ll go under in most of the rounds from 4 to 10 to cover any shortfall.

Guest: Do you see Pratto and Witt being promoted to Triple A this year?
Keith Law: Witt yes. Pratto maybe.
Keith Law: Witt will be up in September. I don’t have inside info; I’m just speculating based on how they feel about him. And I’m in favor of the move.

Noah: What do you think about a Duran Duran cover band called Jarren Duran?  “His name Jarren and he bats with his left hand.” (to the tune of “Rio”)
Keith Law: Needs work.

buccoguin: Just curious what makes some questions attractive and others not?  What is your question to answer ratio?  Cheers
Keith Law: I am lucky if I answer 20% of what I get. I do try to answer questions I haven’t answered in articles already, though.

TomBruno23: My son is in a 6U league and is showing pretty strong exit velocity and launch angle. One more game on the slate if you want to hit up the Ballwin Athletic Association Field #7 later this afternoon.
Keith Law: I heard his makeup is terrible.

James: I’ve seen most people speculating Rocker’s ETA as 2022. Can you elaborate on how himself and his situation differs from Crochet who was able to be a bullpen piece for the Sox down the stretch of his draft year
Keith Law: Because Rocker is a starter and Crochet is a reliever.

Finny: What’s up with Jesus Luzardo? He has been a hot mess, even after his demotion. Is it mechanical? Lost confidence? Or is he just not as good as we thought?
Keith Law: He’s good when healthy, but is infrequently healthy. Maybe he’s just not 100% right now, but not hurt enough for the IL?

Robbie: Not much of a question – but have to see this all star week as a monumental success for the future of the MLB. While Manfred and other’s try and hold back the game, the younger generation of the game puts baseball in the best place that it has been in in a long time. Ohtani’s all star jersey is up for auction for over 100K!
Keith Law: Yes. And I think the draft event was a big success.

TJ: Klaw, working under the presumption that both Jobe and Mayer have similar odds of success, why would a team pick a player who contributes once every five days over one who contributes every day?
Keith Law: A starting pitcher has several times more impact on his days than a position player does on any one of his days.

frank: SSS aside, Based on the reports about volpe, do you think he would have gone higher in the draft?
Keith Law: No. He didn’t show these tools in HS – especially not the speed – and that class of HS position player has historically been disdained by scouts/directors. Now this year it’s different. I wonder if him going off and Nick Yorke holding his own is causing the pendulum to swing too far the other way. We can be sheep sometimes.

Johann Sebastian Vogelbach: This is from a bit out of left field but am I crazy for thinking “innings” limits are a bit silly when what should really be tracked are total pitches? Am I thinking far too much into it or is it likely teams are aware that pitches more precisely capture workload instead of innings
Keith Law: Teams use pitch counts. And more.

Ryan: MLB.com said that Lawlar was the highest ranked player on the Dbacks board. Have you heard if this is true?
Keith Law: Yes, I’m 99% sure that’s right.

Taylor: Is Jordan Lawlar the Dbacks highest upside position player since Justin Upton? Also, Kevin Goldstein said that Lawlar night be a tough sign and there’s concerns he may go to Vanderbilt. Have you heard these signability concerns with him?
Keith Law: I wrote about those concerns before the draft – that if he didn’t go 6th, he might go to school.

Mike: You still wear husky sized jeans ?
Keith Law: Someone clearly has no idea what I look like.

Nate: What position do you like bubba Chandler at? Should the pirates let him pitch and hit for at least a couple of years?
Keith Law: Pitcher. Don’t fuck around with two-way stuff. Just let these kids learn one thing.

Jay: Has Biden being President caused noticeable traffic issues for you in Wilmington with frequent visits?
Keith Law: We do get JoeJams near here sometimes.
Keith Law: It’s only on certain weekends, though, and you just avoid 141 & Barley Mill road. You see the electronic signs that say “NO DRONES” and you know Joe’s home.
Keith Law: I’ve got to run, but thank you all for the questions and for the kind words on my writeups this week. Stay safe!

Klawchat 7/8/21.

My sort-of-final mock draft will go up Friday morning at The Athletic.

Keith Law: And I feel like a beetle on its back. Klawchat.

barbeach: So happy for another Klawchat! So tired of watching Brett Gardner and Rougned Odor strike out…is promoting Hoy Jun Park from Scranton a legit option for 2B/SS/OF?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. Would be nice to see him get a shot but this is way out of line with anything he’s done before.

Howie: Hi Keith, thank you for these chats. If you were running the Yankees, would you consider a moderate sell off? Gio, Britton, Green? A larger sell off including Judge? The self imposed limitations to the luxury tax were seemingly imposed by Hal, but this team would be in a better place with different SP acquisitions this offseason. Yeah – captain obvious, pointing out the obvious…Thanks again!
Keith Law: I can’t imagine ownership allowing a sell-off, but they’re also not far enough out of the race to justify that right now. If they have a Cubs-level meltdown in the next two weeks, perhaps.

Annan: Spencer Strider have a chance to be a GUY?
Keith Law: Outside chance, but keep in mind he had no business in low A to start the year. Double A is a much better test of his secondary stuff.

Greg: Any rumors on which high schoolers could price themselves to college?
Keith Law: I mean, yes, and no. Most of that stuff is bullshit for posturing purposes. Lorenzo Carrier took his name out of the draft. I heard Thatcher Hurd might. But anyone else is just jockeying for more money – and there is a TON of money to be spent in the supplemental and second rounds.

Mike: Any rumors on what the Red Sox might be thinking at 4? Seems like if Leiter isn’t there it’s pretty wide open as to what they’ll do.
Keith Law: If Leiter isn’t there I’m pretty sure they’d take Davis. Rocker is also a possibility. That’s probably it – definitely not wide open.

G: I was disappointed to see Roansy Contreras recent forearm tightness will prevent him from pitching in the Futures Game. Potential injury issues notwithstanding, did his early season velocity bump and improved results elevate him above other pitchers like Priester in the Pirates organization, and was he looking like a  top-100 contender in a mid-season update?
Keith Law: I usually do a top 50 midseason, not 100, but Contreras would be in the latter group not the former.

Jason: I saw your tweet recently about Luis Urias production since moving off SS. Do you think he can be a GUY at 3B for the brewers in the short and longer term?
Keith Law: Yes. I thought 2B would be better for his defensive skill set, but either way, getting him off shortstop should help him. He could always put the bat on the ball.

Danny: I think you’ve praised Anthony Volpe in recent chats and on twitter (even giving a mea culpa). He was your 18th ranked Yankee prospect coming into the season. Where do you think he roughly ranks on their list now? Top 3 or 4 behind Peraza?
Keith Law: Ahead of Peraza. He might be 2 after Dominguez. Deivi’s a mess. Schmidt is hurt. Who am I forgetting?

Danny: Deivi Garcia has been pretty awful in just 33+ innings in AAA as a 22 year old. Is this cause for concern? Are you less convinced he can start after the first half of this year?
Keith Law: Yeah someone fucked up his delivery. He’s a low slot slider-slinger now. Complete disaster. If I were the GM there I’d be on the warpath over this – he was one of their top 3 prospects and right now he has no value.
Keith Law: All the deception, the depth on the CB, all gone. I don’t get it.

Tom: Good to have klawchat back! Zach Thompson for the Marlins has looked great, both in the minors and in his 5 or so appearances in the bigs. Can he be a middle of the rotation guy?
Keith Law: More back of the rotation IMO.

Jason: Who do you like better long-term, Patino or Baz?
Keith Law: I really like both guys. I had Patiño higher in the offseason top 100 but that’s not a slight on Baz.

Sean S: How are you able to incorporate spin efficiency, exit velocity, and other newer tools when evaluating players in person?  Do you use 3rd party sources for this?
Keith Law: I don’t – no one does. Those are two separate evaluation processes. You can’t pretend to evaluate “spin efficiency” in person. Let the machines handle that stuff; go scout the player, not the metrics.

Ryan: the warning signs for bauer were flashing for some time. Please tell me we didn’t just look the other way because he gives a good sound bite and has a YouTube channel
Keith Law: The warning signs that Bauer wasn’t a good guy were there – he’s a bully, he didn’t play well with others, etc. I do not agree with any argument that his public behavior was some indicator of a propensity for violence against women. Saying that just gives a false sense of security that we can spot the abuser – plenty of men show a different face to the world than the one they wear at home. The BTK killer presented himself as a family man who was active in his church. It’s just not a straight-line relationship.
Keith Law: If Bauer is guilty of even a fraction of the accusations, I hope we never see or hear from him again, and all the people who enabled him are called to account for doing so – from the people in his camp to the writers who kept boosting him as ‘quirky’ or ‘eccentric.’ But I can’t take that last step to saying anyone on the outside should have known he was (allegedly) physically abusing women.

Question: Can people be racist against white males?
Keith Law: No. Saying they can is a fundamental misunderstanding of what racism is.

Hoke Moseley: Pittsburgh talk radio has seized on the “Bob Nutting is cheap” narrative to explain why they are looking to “save money” with their 1st overall selection. I’ve been banging my head against a wall trying to explain to family the rules of the MLB draft as a result. Do you think changes to the slotting/allotment system in the draft will be discussed in the upcoming CBA? It seems like another bar for casual fans to clear in order to understand the game that could be remedied in the future.
Keith Law: I think the draft will be tweaked in the next CBA because the two sides can’t help but tweak it. I’m not sure that’ll make it any better, though. They really should just allow teams to trade draft picks already.

Tom: Casey Mize pitching to the tune of a 4.74 FIP per Bref..he’s not there as a top of the rotation guy. What’s he need to do to get there?
Keith Law: It’s all in the home runs. And that’s mostly his four-seamer. I do wonder if the changes to the baseball are hurting him, but I’m also surprised he’s not throwing more splitters and fewer four-seamers.

Jordan: How cool is it that Jake Burger is doing what he’s doing after missing the past three years of professional baseball?
Keith Law: It’s great. One to root for.

Tom: Joe Ryan of the rays. Great bb:k numbers in AAA. Think he gets the call post allstar break and what is his most likely outcome as a big leaguer?
Keith Law: I worry he’ll be homer-prone, but yes, he should be in line for a callup some time in the next month. For his most likely outcome etc. I’ll refer you back to my Rays prospect rankings: https://klaw.me/3d0vAe3

Peter: Recently saw that Jered Eickoff and Mason Williams opted for free agency rather than accept a minor league assignment from the Mets – then resigned a minor league deal with them like the next day and are back in the minors. What are the machinations going on there. Obviously, I’m assuming money?
Keith Law: Could also have included opt-out clauses or other language. Call me up by 8/1 or I get to be a free agent; I get to leave if another team offers me a major-league spot.

Shane: Klaw, what is your take on Jo Adell still being in Salt Lake (unintended rhyme)? On the one hand, he is still striking out at a 30% clip and only walking 7% of the time. But on the other, he has to better than any of the Angels healthy outfielders, right?
Keith Law: The first hand is a lot bigger than the second one, especially if you want to develop him.

incandenza: You’ve said the Red Sox are focused on college guys, but does that mean they’d take Leiter/Davis/Rocker over *any* of the HS shortstops (including Mayer) if the latter are available at the fourth pick? Is Jobe in the picture for them at all?
Keith Law: Yes, I think they’d take those college guys first. Jobe isn’t, and he shouldn’t be. HS pitchers in the first round are way too risky; at pick 4, the opportunity cost is through the roof.

Tim: Is there any chance Henry Davis goes lower than 4 to the Red Sox?
Keith Law: Yes. If they pass, I’m actually not sure where he goes.

addoeh: You’ve talked about on your podcast recently that your daughters played softball this year.  Was there any pressure from the league or coaches for you to help coach once they find out what you do for a living?  How was the experience overall?
Keith Law: Nobody knew of my day job and that was fine by me! I tried to stay out of the way … I think the only things I suggested were some really basic points like ensuring their hands were together on the bat. Otherwise, I’ll let the coaches do their thing for now. They’re both so young that the goal here is to have fun, not to turn either one into Jennie Finch.

Arnold: Hey Keith, has the low-power, high-average contact hitter become so undervalued that some team could Moneyball the game with a squad of such players and be successful?
Keith Law: I feel like the Pirates tried this and it didn’t work. Low power often means insufficiently hard contact. You can’t win with a team of Madrigals.

Larry: Do you have any plans to do any book signings in the Phoenix area soon?
Keith Law: I have nothing scheduled, but I’m always open to doing them if stores reach out. I really enjoy them. Speaking of which, come see me at the Tattered Cover across from the ballpark on Monday at noon MT!

Ryan: What do you make of Person’s season so far? Still young for the level, but his offense has been dreadful. Have you heard anything about how he’s looked?
Keith Law: He’s kind of generic.
Keith Law: I assume you meant Robert Puason? He’s a perfect example of a player adversely affected by the termination of short-season leagues. That’s where he belongs.

Carlos: I’ve read that AJ Vukovich has looked really good so far. Do you think he has a shot to make the top 100 next year?
Keith Law: Yes, a shot.

Akiva: Is Mark Vientos for real? His June was god-like.
Keith Law: I’ve always bought the swing. He has to do this for more than a month.

Dylan: I’ve read some glowing reports on Elijah Green. Have you ever seen him? Do you agree that he’s the top player in the 2022 draft?
Keith Law: I haven’t yet, and no, I don’t agree. Anointing someone the top player a year or more out rarely works out. Brady Singer was one. Kumar Rocker was one. Brice Turang was one. Harper & Strasburg turned out to be those guys. Rendon and Buxton were at least good enough. But often it’s just that we haven’t started to bear down on those players enough to separate them into more than rough tiers.

Moe Mentum: IIRC your favorite college course was “Comedy and the Novel.” Have you read any more recent novels in the decades (sorry) since you were a student that would have been worthy of that class?
Keith Law: Tons. Lucky JimA Confederacy of DuncesThe Sell-out. Maybe MoneyInherent Vice. I’m not sure if Jasper Fforde’s books are literary enough, but several of his would work for their comedy and mix of high- and lowbrow humor. I’m also a bit surprised the course included Joseph Andrews but not Tristram Shandy, the latter of which is funnier if a little harder to read.

Joe: Keith, which of Peraza or Volpe (or neither) is the Yankees shortstop of the future?
Keith Law: I’d really like to see how he’s changed, but the reports I’ve gotten on Volpe from other scouts point to him.
Keith Law: I wrote this last week, but again, I was way off on that one.

Josh: Keith, better long-term prospect, Gunnar Henderson or Anthony Volpe?  For a fantasy league that drafts minor leaguers.
Keith Law: Like ’em both but I’d take Volpe right now.

Jerry: On Sunday, when Aroldis Chapman melted down, Mets broadcaster Gary Cohen said team losses when a closer loses his stuff are demoralizing. I think that might be true. Isn’t one way to avoid that if teams to stop having just one closer and actually try “bullpen by committee”?
Keith Law: Aren’t all losses demoralizing? What about getting your clocks cleaned 12-1 and your left fielder comes in to pitch? What about losing 11 games in a row and you wonder if you’ll ever win again? I just don’t buy it. Losing sucks. But eventually every team wins one.

xxx(yyy): as a Rangers fan, which way should I hope the team goes? pitching or hitting (generally)?
Keith Law: Best Player Available. Pick 2 you go for broke.

xxx(yyy): what cookbook have you cooked the most from in 2021?
Keith Law: Been a mix of them but I’ve used Parvana quite a bit. Can’t wait to crack The Flavor Equation next.

Fitz: As a Jays fan, should I be concerned about Nate Pearson’s long-term outlook? Is there reason to believe he will magically start staying healthy?
Keith Law: I’d be worried about his health, yes.

Snowy: Ty Madden to the Giants at 14 has a lot of buzz online, are you hearing similar things?
Keith Law: I have not, actually. That’s a bad pick. I’d be disappointed if I were a Giants fan, given who they’d be passing up

Indians fan: Is Bobby Bradley the future at 1st for the Indians?  Rest of season?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. He’s been awful since those first few games.

Mike: How you feel about drafting high school players in the 1st round?  It seems to take 4-5 years to get to the majors.
Keith Law: Position players, sure. Plenty of them turn into stars and their attrition rate isn’t any worse than that of college guys. Pitchers, though, I wouldn’t ever do it in the top 15.

Guest: Looking for any Phillies draft info.  You previously mentioned Jonathan Vastine as a kid they were connected to (maybe in the second round).  Anything changed with that?  And is there any chance Tyler Black or Trey Sweeney make it to the Phillies at 2-49?
Keith Law: No chance. Both those kids go in the late first, I think. Sweeney could even go in the teens, even though he didn’t face any good pitching all year and isn’t a shortstop.

Orioles: What is your opinion on the drafting strategy of not paying top 1st round money ?  (Seems like a team would rather have Martin than Kjerstad and better 2nd round). Explain the strategy
Keith Law: The strategy makes sense on paper, but you have to get the right guys with later over-slot picks.

Mike: Keith, I know you don’t draft for need, but due to lack of arms in upper minors, don’t the Mets have to take a college arm unless Jobe or one of the shortstops fall?
Keith Law: The Mets do not have to do that, no. Also, Jobe is not the answer.
Keith Law: Jackson Jobe might be a stud. He’s also a high school pitcher who throws hard. The odds of that class of player succeeding are lower than the odds of any other class of player.

John: Is it true that most MLB teams only expect 1-2 players from the Draft  to be a consistent contributor(s) in the MLB?
Keith Law: If you get two regulars, that’s a good draft.

Hinkie: What are your thoughts on the MLB Draft League?  What player(s) helped themselves the most by playing in that league this spring/summer?
Keith Law: It didn’t work. I don’t know of anyone who really helped himself there. The big pop-up name of the summer was Rohan Handa, the Yalie (sneers) in the NECBL.

Aaron C.: Is “Stick to Baseball” and the Saturday links post a victim of your current schedule? Will they be back after the draft? I fucking loved them if you can’t tell.
Keith Law: Yes, but with the draft & some (good) personal stuff, I’ve been way too busy.

Kyle: Klaw, how low could Rocker fall in this draft? Any chance he falls to the Mets at 10?
Keith Law: Yes, there’s a chance. I think 10/11 is his absolute floor.

Ben (MN): Any non-baseball vacation spots you are looking to hit now that it is more feasible to do so?
Keith Law: We’ve been talking about going to Wales to visit my wife’s cousins there for a year, but I think that’ll have to wait until 2022. (I’m not going there in the winter unless absolutely necessary. Dw i ddim yn hoffi’r gaeaf yng nghymru. Mae’n rhy oer a rhy gymylog.) And eventually we’d like to take that honeymoon to South America …

SG in SD: Thanks for the chat Keith! When will your next mock be up?
Keith Law: Tomorrow, as it says up top.

nate: How do you think NIL would effect high school players? Do you worry that two sport guys might go to college just for football because there’s more money there?
Keith Law: Those are the guys most affected (helped) by this – the two-sport guys who could make real money off their likenesses in football or basketball. Maybe one baseball player a year is like that, but will he make enough via NIL to pass up $5MM now (compared to the NIL income plus whatever bonus he expects in 2-3 years)?

droopydave: Have you ever been hunting?  Would you consider it?
Keith Law: No. No.

Steve: Hi Keith, thanks for the chat. Do you think the NYM go top heavy again like that past few years ( Allan and Ginn ) or revert back to normal with Alderson/Scott ?
Keith Law: Same guys running the draft and you can’t argue with their results. Look at how much of the current team came through their amateur work. I bet they do the same – go big on someone in the 2nd/3rd rounds and then save money elsewhere. But at 10 the only name I’ve heard that would be a discount would be Colson Montgomery, and I think they’ll have better guys available.

Bob: After a brutal 1st month, Pedro Leon has been pretty good. Is he one of the most intriguing players at the Futures Game? Do you think he’ll hit enough to get to his tools in games?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes. Really looking forward to seeing him.

Chris: Which of the tier of 8 (rocker, leiter, jobe, house, mayer, Lawler, Watson, Davis) are most likely to slip? What’s the latest you could see one of them falling to?
Keith Law: Rocker I mentioned. Jobe could go 3, or he could slip out of the top ten.

Drew: I know he’s young and I’m not too worried, but I’m not too familiar with him so I wanted to get your opinion on the Cards’ Johan Oviedo.  Makeup seems good, and that slider could  be fun but the lack of control is tough to watch, even if it’s expected for a kid that young.
Keith Law: He’s 23 and he’s never been good anywhere. He’s just big. I’m not a big believer.

Darren: Hi Keith,
   Would be interested to hear your thoughts on children playing baseball that have some anxiety. Our son got hit a few times early this season and now is afraid of getting hit. He steps back when he swings and if he stands in there, he steps out of the box at anything close to being inside. Have you had issues with anxiety going back to full stadiums? We still have not been to a game yet. Hope all is well
Keith Law: That’s a question for a medical professional, but I’m going to guess they’ll at least argue for some exposure therapy.

Bryan: With Jarren Duran not making the Olympic roster, do you believe a call-up to Boston is imminent?
Keith Law: Yes.

mRNA BTN162b2: Have you heard/seen any more about Noelvi Marte? Worth the trip to Modesto?
Keith Law: Nothing new, just that he is what we expected so far, and I’m bummed he’s not in the Futures Game.

Joe: Keith, I am in full agreement with you about the overuse of college pitchers with major league careers ahead of them. But is there a discussion to be had about what a college coach owes the other players on his team? For some, major league baseball is not an option, and winning the College World Series may be the highlight of their sports life. What obligation does the coach have to those players to do everything he can to win those games?
Keith Law: Any such obligation should not come at the expense of one particular player.

Ben: If you were advising Mayer what number would you be looking to get from the Pirates? It doesn’t seem like it makes any sense for him to ask for less than the 2nd bonus slot, given Pittsburgh’s ownership situation and how much the Rangers and Tigers seem to like him.
Keith Law: He shouldn’t take less than slot at 3. I don’t really know how strong Texas’ interest is.

Adam: Had been a few straight down years but Jhailyn Ortiz, who you’ve ranked well previously, seems to be coming into his own. Can he be a future regular still?
Keith Law: He’s repeating high A, and is 22, so I don’t want to get too excited yet, but it’s nice to see a stat line more in line with what I expected. I hope he gets a month in Reading to finish the year.

Justin: Obviously “taking a slightly less talented player in order to spend more on picks later” is an accepted strategy.   At what point do you think it doesn’t make sense anymore?  Like, if the Pirates took, I dunno, Frelick #1 for $4 million to be able to spend an extra $4 mil later as opposed to taking Mayer for $7 mil and being able to spend $1 mil later, should Pirates fans be annoyed/upset?
Keith Law: Yes, there’s no way they’re getting enough talent to justify the opportunity cost of taking Frelick at 1 over anyone else.

TDC: Why do the Nationals only ever seem to target pitchers with their early round picks? This trend has left Mike Rizzo with possibly the weakest position player group of any farm system.
Keith Law: They have some arms, though. Cavalli appears to be a stud.  If Rutledge is healthy, he’s a potential high-end reliever. I agree that mixing in a bat every now and then would be a good idea, but they obviously have a clear philosophy.

Sweeney: If and when the Pirates save some $ on the first overall, who would you see as a few guys they could target overslot in the second round? I’ve had my eyes set on Joe Mack assuming one of the SS goes #1, but is there any way they can push him down enough?
Keith Law: Mack’s almost certainly gone. Look more to the HS arms, the  Painter, Mozzicato, Coppola, Morales, Bruns group.

Rob: There’s no salvaging the Arenado trade but I’m curious if Eli Montero is at least salvaging some of his former promise? All I can see is the numbers but those at least appear positive.
Keith Law: I thought he was a prospect in low A, but then he hurt his hamate and jumped to AA and struggled. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him turn into a regular.

Justin: People who think that acquiring Adam Frazier should require a huge prospect package are off base, right?  Do you think they view him as anything more than just “solid .280/.350/400 type leadoff guy with decent defense”?  Obviously that’s worth *something* in a deal, but I feel like he’s become overrated by fans/media because of some babip luck.
Keith Law: Yeah, this is a fluky year, no way you give up a top prospect for him now.

Christian (Raleigh, NC): Hi Keith — Thank you for recent write-up on some of the Braves prospects you have seen (Michael Harris, Freddy Tarnok, etc.). Do you think Harris has an approach at the plate that will allow him to tighten up some of the swing-and-miss issues he has shown with non-fastballs? As a Braves fan I am hoping he can actually develop some kind of plan at the plate unlike other Braves prospects (for example – Waters) who really never have. Thanks.
Keith Law: The swing is fine, but the recognition isn’t. Saw the same problems with Jesse Franklin, but more so. I wonder if AA pitching will eat Franklin up.

Alex: I know Jobe is a HS pitcher and there is a lot of inherit risk- with taking one high first- but I have heard he has two plus pitches (plus plus?) and the makings of third.   He also does not seem to have been ridden into the ground (IIRC, he got more attention at SS) like other HS pitchers Dylan Bundy.    What am I missing?
Keith Law: He’s a HS pitcher. That is his ‘class’ and the base rate for that class is lower in odds of seeing the majors and odds of success.

Justin: Who would be your “dark horse” for the #1 overall pick?   Anyone outside of the consensus top 7ish guys?  I have a weird feeling about Frelick or Cowser.
Keith Law: Kahlil Watson.

Kip: Thanks for all the great draft coverage.  If you saw it,  what were your thoughts on the Ken Burns Hemingway doc?
Keith Law: Haven’t seen it. Never a big fan of his writing.

Darny: What kind of $ increase did Will Bednar earn himself closing out the CWS? 15-25 range now?
Keith Law: I don’t know, maybe $5000.

Mac: What is Harry Ford’s best position?
Keith Law: Batters box? He might be a right fielder.

Mac: Is Colson Montgomery the riskiest player considered to be a first round talent?
Keith Law: Him or Benny Montgomery. Benny for his swing, Colson for his age/position.

Justin: Do you think Henry Davis is a solid MLB C when it’s all said and done?
Keith Law: I do – but I know some scouts think he’s not a catcher in the long term. He’s good enough now that with professional coaching I think he’ll be an above-average defender.

Josh: For all the (valid) talk about how modern baseball strategy is making the sport less watchable, I really enjoy watching what the Giants and Gabe Kapler are doing in terms of getting most of their position players into every game (15 batters with >100 PA; very few true “full-time” players). It feels engaging as a fan to think along with the decision-making and it keeps me interested through high-stakes pinch hitting choices and “line changes” when a new opposing pitcher comes in. It’s non-traditional, but I find it compelling and sort of fresh as a viewer. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I agree. And FTR I don’t think shifting makes baseball less watchable. the damn rabbit ball does.

Dan: Has Dillon Dingler solidified himself as a top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: He might be. He’s very good, certainly.

Jesse B: Has Jordan Walker’s pitch perception been better than you anticipated, and if so are we looking a potential star down the road?
Keith Law: Yes, way better, and yes.

In A Big Country: I’m not expecting to grow flowers in the desert…damn you Keith, been stuck in my head for two days now.  By the way, ever heard the “Wonderland” EP, because it’s pretty great.
Keith Law: It’s such a quintessentially ’80s song. Adamson was brilliant. They just got pigeonholed by MTV. Wonderland is great, too.

Mac: Do you think MLB will keep a mid July draft date?
Keith Law: Yes. It’s not like Manfred ever listens to any feedback from club execs or scouts.

Jason S: Do you think Jazz always as swing and miss issues? His swing looks so quiet to me. Is it just pitch recognition?
Keith Law: Yes and maybe some inexperience. I think he’s going to end up a superstar at least in some years. He’ll be worth The Wait.

Mac: Madden or Bednar?
Keith Law: Bednar for me.

Uli Jon: Any chance the Giants go pitcher, or are they committed to position players and hoping Farhan and the ballpark can continue to weave magic with former prospects?
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re committed either way.

ChrisP: Do you think Adrian Del Castillo can stay behind the dish, and if not, then what would his ceiling be?
Keith Law: At the end of the day (spring), no, I don’t think he will, and unless someone gets him to power, he’s a bench guy.
Keith Law: Now, there’s probably power in there, but he’s a swing overhaul guy who needs a position. I don’t take that guy in the first round.

Justin: do any of the prospects in this draft crack your overall top 40 or 50?
Keith Law: Yes, at least 5-6.

Pat: It’s interesting to hear you say the Red Sox are choosing out of conventional candidates after what they did last year with Yorke. No chance they just go way off script again?
Keith Law: Not at pick 4, I don’t think. They picked later last year.

James: How worrisome is Matt Manning right now? He can’t get anyone to swing and miss, has no secondary stuff, and no spin on his fastball.
Keith Law: He was hurt last year in August and hasn’t looked right at all this year. Something’s up.

Kevin: Do you think it is better for Triston Casas’ development to go with team USA to Tokyo, or to stay in AA for the next month+?
Keith Law: Staying in AA.

ChrisP: What’s happened to Gore this year? Is he hurt or tinkering with his mechanics?
Keith Law: Blister. The Padres are also working on his mechanics but every time his blisters return this happens.

Brian: I have a hard time believing Detroit would take Jobe at 3 if Leiter and Mayer are gone. Who should they take in that situation? One of the shortstops or Davis?
Keith Law: Jobe or House. Not Davis.

Danny: Any idea what’s up with Alexander Vizciano and TJ Sikkema for the Yankees? Haven’t pitched at all this season. Are they expected to come back this season?
Keith Law: Sikkema has had a “lat” injury for like three months.

Rick Sanchez: Baz, Cavalli, and Detmers have all seen their prospect status soar this year. Is it too aggressive to say these guys have ace upside?
Keith Law: Detmers is hitting 97 now. He’s way better than we thought.

Appa Yip Yip: I read that draft pick trading was nixed in the 80s because the commissioner was worried cheap teams would trade all their picks so they never had to pay draft bonuses, which is hilariously on brand for baseball, but do you know if it’s actually true?
Keith Law: That was the rationale, but it turned out to be totally wrong. Cheap teams want more picks. The draft remains the best value in baseball.

xxx(yyy): Wife and I are taking a trip (long weekend) to one of the following cities late this year, which of these do you (most) recommend? Charleston, Denver, New Orleans, Portland or somewhere else? Mainly a food/exploring trip so open to other places!
Keith Law: Charleston is amazing. Portland might be the best combo of food + stuff to do, though.

Drew: Have you followed any of the Bret Weinstein / anti-vax / Ivermectin saga? It’s kind of sad to see a scientist use his credentials to spread such paranoid tripe.
Keith Law: Yes. Not sure if he’s really lost his mind, or if this is just a grift. He’s a good example of someone on the political left who has delved into pseudoscience and anti-vaxxerism, though. It’s not solely the province of the right.

Brad: On the podcast, you mentioned Benny Montgomery as possibly a Rockies pick. Would he be a reach there? BTW, I will see you Monday, and I don’t need a note from you to miss work for the event.
Keith Law: Oh cool, I assume your boss is coming too, then. It would be a reach but perhaps an under-slot pick.

Roy: Have you always felt averse to taking HS pitchers early? I thought you were on board with Hunter Greene going top 2 a few years back–this is not an argument, by the way, but a genuine question. I wasn’t sure if there are exceptional talents, or if I was wrong about that, or if this is a more recent development in drafting strategy. Thanks!
Keith Law: No, this is somewhat new for me, after I looked at the data while writing The Inside Game and realized just how significant the differences between classes of players were. It’s not just a scouting axiom; high school pitchers really are way riskier.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I’m still not 100% sure what I’ll be doing during the draft itself, but I’ll be at the Futures Game on Sunday and will make myself available on the concourse some time between the end of BP and the first pitch, plus I’ll be at the Tattered Cover on Monday at noon MT for a talk and book signing. I hope to see many of you there!

Klawchat 5/27/21.

My first mock for this year’s MLB Draft is up for subscribers to the Athletic, as is a post comparing high school pitchers Chase Petty and Frank Mozzicato.

Keith Law: A broken soul stares from a pair of watering eyes. Klawchat.

Timothy: So with this many names seemingly in play for the first pick the Pirates have to try and look for an under slot deal right?
Keith Law: I think they can shave a million off anyone they take at 1 … if they’re close to indifferent among the options they can just offer that discount to two or three players, and see who takes it. I agree, though, that’s the strategy so they can go get a high-ceiling guy (probably a HS arm) at their next pick at 37.

TomBruno23: Any specific college baseball games you are targeting to watch today/this weekend?
Keith Law: Nope. I’d rather talk to scouts afterwards and go watch highlights rather than deal with frustrating TV angles and blathering commentary.

Dan: Is Chase Allsup, Auburn commit from Dothan moving up towards the top 100?
Keith Law: Not mine, sorry.

TomBruno23: Wrapped up, How Lucky, by your friend, Will Leitch. Rarely do novels anymore but I enjoyed that one. Even better that I went in not knowing anything about the plot or characters.
Keith Law: I’m reading that next after Brit Bennett’s The Vanishing Half, which seems to be a favorite for this year’s Pulitzer Prize for Fiction.

Sedona: How does the Cards front office miss on Arozorena and Adolis and prefer O’neil and Bader?
Keith Law: I’m not so sure they really “missed” on Adolis … yes, he has the 16 homers, but he never walks and has all of 3 doubles this year. It looks extremely fluky. I was never an O’Neill guy, though – never understood what they saw in him. Dead power with nothing else.

Joe: Have you heard any early returns on if Luis Medina’s improved command and control has carried over from the end of 2019?
Keith Law: Nothing directly, not yet. I’ll go see him in June.

Tom: You mentioned about the overuse of WVUS jackson wolf. How do you evaluate him?
Keith Law: He’s on my top 100. One of the better senior signs in this draft.

Brian: Should there be consequences for college managers who abuse pitchers like what Randy Mazey did to Jackson Wolf last night? Way to wreck a kid’s future.
Keith Law: There can’t be – there is no mechanism to sanction coaches who do this stuff. If recruits started pulling out from commitments to schools that overuse their pitchers, that would help, but otherwise MLB really needs to step in and work with the NCAA to get some limits in place.

Sedona: Mackenzie Gore has not shown control of 3 of his pitches for over a year including 2 springs, alt site & now in a small sample size in the minors.  Other publications sited scouts to confirm the lack of control.  Do you think he was “effectively wild” in 2019?  Do you think he can make mechanical adjustments?  Do you consider him to be a top prospect?  Or have guys like Manoah pass him?
Keith Law: This is just wrong.

TomBruno23: Great mock, seriously cannot believe two teams get to pick 1 (ducking).
Keith Law: WordPress problem. Autonumbering didn’t work.

TJ177: Is Roansy Contreras’ stuff good enough to play at the MLB level right now?
Keith Law: I like Roansy but no, that’s too aggressive.

Tom: Will Klaw be enjoying any whiteclaws this memorial day weekend?
Keith Law: Don’t you put that evil on me.

TJ177: If Syndegaard can’t ramp up fast enough to get an MLB start this year but his medicals otehrwise look ok, could he still beat the QO value in FA? Feels like someone would still give him a multi-year deal with an opt-out just on upside.
Keith Law: I think no.

Will: Given the Yorke pick last year, is there a decent chance the Red Sox go underslot at four so they can spend more on later draft picks? If so, who might the Sox take as the underslot guy?
Keith Law: Haven’t heard that at all. Yorke is off to a rough start too, for a guy who was supposed to be able to hit above all else, so that may deter them from doing the same.

Sweeney: Is Roansy Contreras a hidden gem in the Taillon deal? Dude has been dealing…..same deal, Maikol Escotto with a grand slam last night and ~ 350/500/450 slash through the first month+. Just low-A for now, but a legit prospect?
Keith Law: It’s less than one month of sample size.

Bryan: Taylor Trammell goes back to raking at AAA. Is the difference in pitching between MLB and AAA that big? What do you expect his contributions to be for Seattle upon next recall?
Keith Law: Not only is there a big difference, but imagine how that AAA pitching would look to a guy who just saw MLB pitching for a month. Like going from calculus to long division.
Keith Law: I like Trammell but I hope they don’t rush him back to the majors, either. Set him up for success. He had real trouble with offspeed stuff in the big leagues and you have to be sure he’s seen and adjusted to the better breaking stuff/changeups in AAA before bringing him back.

Jon: Amed Rosario seems to be turning a little bit of a corner here. Can you expect him to keep hitting or a blip on the radar and will go back to what he’s been?
Keith Law: I’ve always liked Rosario and the last month or so is more in line with what I expected from him, but it’s still a small sample and he hasn’t faced the best pitching staffs in that span either.

Brace: Are Luis Urias’ days as a full-time player done? Or will a position switch lead him back to his former ability? I know you mentioned moving off of SS in the trade article might be a benefit.
Keith Law: I like him best as a platoon 2b and backup IF. He should never have been asked to play shortstop.

Sebastian: I know it’s still super early, but it’s encouraging that Ronny Mauricio already has tied his career high in home runs.  Have you heard anything about a change in his swing leading to more fly balls/power? Or just added strength?
Keith Law: Added strength – he was still pretty undersized when last we saw him.

Matt: Okay so just what the heck are we supposed to think about Cornelius Randolph now?
Keith Law: We’re supposed to think it’s less than a month of playing time.

Ben (MN): I don’t remember Trevor Rogers being a highly touted prospect, but he has been incredible so far. I do remember you mentioned him as a possible breakout candidate this year, but do you think he can continue to be a top 15-20 pitcher going forward?
Keith Law: I do. The slider is a difference-maker. He was a first-rounder out of HS, even without that breaking ball, so it’s not as if he was never a prospect – he’s just become a much better one.

Adam: Cherry-picking his outing today, but Spencer Howard looks incredible. Really tough start to his MLB career, but do you still have a TOR outcome possible for him?
Keith Law: I never had him as a top of the rotation guy, sorry.

JJ: Who will be the first 2021 draft pick to make his way to the majors?
Keith Law: Some random college reliever taken in the 8th round.

Harrisburg Hal: my daughter was playing around on ms paint and mlb stole it for one of their ‘local market’ hats… what’s my legal recourse?
Keith Law: Graphic design is her passion, apparently.

Nighter: Do teams care at all about family ties in terms of drafting? Just seeing a guy like Will Bednar where the Pirates just traded for his older brother, David. Obviously they just want to get the best players available in their pools, but it’s kind of a cool thing.
Keith Law: I don’t think anyone cares about that. If they do they should be fired. You don’t get extra points for having brothers on your team or for drafting the local kid.

Brian: I know the Yankees are desperate for bodies but doesn’t bringing up Florial seem like a bad idea assuming he’s up for more than just today?
Keith Law: Probably just because he’s already on the 40-man. He wasn’t hitting at all in AAA.

Jay: Do you like Priester, Tahnaj, Roasny, Yajure, or Brennan more? In that order?
Keith Law: You’re looking for my top 20 Pirates prospects ranking.

Ken: Watching baseball since 1980 I always hear the term “professional hitter” and “professional at-bat.”  Within the context of the words I do understand what they are saying.  Question in a specific situation – down a run – 8th inning – runner on second no one out.  Batter comes up – takes a Ball, hits a dribble foul, swings and misses, and then on the 1-2 pitch hits a slower roller right side 4-3, runner to third.   The old school analyst would call that a “professional at-bat” or “the hitter doing his job.”  For the analytical guys – is this a good at -bat or a bat at-bat that had an net positive outcome (runner to third 1 out – sac fly can get him in it to tie) or is it a bad at-bat and the outcome is irrelevant to determing if it is a good or bad at-bat
Keith Law: It’s a bad at bat in every way. It’s an out. The team’s odds of scoring went down. The team’s odds of scoring multiple runs went way down.

WHAT: You need to stop what you are doing and watch the Baez/Pirates play from a few minutes ago. We’ll wait.
Keith Law: I mean, I love Baez, and that’s heads-up running by him, but what in the actual fuck was Will Craig thinking? Was this his first day playing baseball? STEP ON FIRST BASE.

Steve: Do you Mozzicato as a over slot 2nd round guy?  I know prep pitchers should almost always sign but he seems like the type who can build his frame and add velo
Keith Law: I do. If he were committed to Vandy or Florida, he might be unsignable, but with UConn I think he should just sign.

ugotwilcoxed: Impression of Cade Cavalli a handful of starts in?
Keith Law: Haven’t seen him yet, just Rutledge. I’ve focused on the draft while they were still going, but with most of those guys done playing I’ll shift to seeing more minor league guys.

HomerSomethingSomething: Devers has been a joy to watch hitting lately. Think he breaks out and makes to 40 HR this year?
Keith Law: I think 40 HR is well within his capabilities.

section 34: Let’s say it was a lab leak. What could be done about it?
Keith Law: Let’s not say that, because the odds of that being true are extremely small, and even entertaining the possibility is just feeding the trolls.

John: Franchy Cordero optioned today — does he ever become a productive MLB player?
Keith Law: Up and down guy, IMO.

Chris P: Liover Peguero is off to a hot start and small sample size aside, what does he need to do to get top 100 buzz?
Keith Law: Let’s see him fill out and turn that contact into more extra-base hits.

Tom Plunkett: Coming to Frederick Md to see the “Draft: baseball league?   We miss the Keys and minor league baseball.
Keith Law: No, not unless those rosters really improve. There just wasn’t enough talent on them to get me to drive there when I  could go see at least six minor-league teams with a shorter drive.

Guest: Expectations for Manoah’s debut today?
Keith Law: None.

James: A lot has been made of the many Tatis errors so far. However, they all seem to be related to his throwing and the rest of his defensive skills look really good. Is that fixable to the point where we can expect him to stick at SS, possibly with good overall numbers?
Keith Law: He may be pushed off over time but his range and hands are really great.

Greg: Just looking at recent drafts and reading you/Pipeline write ups — seems like Atlanta is pretty likely going college route at 24?
Keith Law: I think so. But they’re not anti-HS, just more likely college at the first pick.

Tom: On a scale from 10 to 10 how excited are you to read the unpublished John Steinbeck werewolf murder mystery?
Keith Law: An 11. would absolutely read that.

Steve: I know SSS and all, but have you heard/seen about Pratto so far this season? Is the turnaround legit?
Keith Law: It was a real swing change, and adjustment to his approach, so I’m cautiously optimistic on that one.

Chris P: Gage Jump has been getting some helium elsewhere, but wasn’t on your big board. What do you see in him as a prospect?
Keith Law: I don’t see a top 3 rounds guy. Sub 6 foot lefty without premium stuff. I wouldn’t take that guy out of high school – college, maybe, when you’ve seen him against better competition and have better data too.

Jonas: Any new cookbooks you’ve tried or looking to get?
Keith Law: Hoping to pick up Nik Sharma’s The Flavor Equation soon.
Keith Law: My wife got me Parvana for Valentine’s Day and what I’ve tried has been great.

Dan: What do you make of Rodon’s season so far?  Finally hitting his potential after years of injuries?  Great start but not sustainable anywhere near this level?  Somewhere in between?
Keith Law: I can’t tell you if he’ll hold up, but otherwise I’m buying.

Adam: Should I care that Tatis Jrs strikeout and whiff rate are well below average?
Keith Law: No.

Adam: The untrained eye test tells me that Ryan Weathers is a really good young pitcher with top-half of the rotation upside. What is the trained eye test telling you?
Keith Law: He’s a really good young pitcher with top-half of the rotation (but not top of the rotation) upside.

David: The new Andy Weir book, “The Hail Mary” was really enjoyable with lots of hard science. If you liked The Martian, I think you would enjoy it.
Keith Law: Excellent, thank you, I did like The Martian.

Adam: It’s well documented that AJ Preller personally scouts more amateur players than any GM in baseball, but how notable is his presence somewhere within the industry? If a scout sees him at a game, do they report that back to their superiors or is it so commonplace that most just disregard it at this point?
Keith Law: It’s noteworthy – he’s not seeing players his scouts don’t like, after all.

Dan: Is Brujan from TB all that his numbers this year (SSS) seem to be?  If so going to be fun watching him and Wander and others in years to come.
Keith Law: I think he’s a star. Not a Franco type star, but a star.

Steve: Could Alvarez stick at catcher long term or more of a 1b/dh type long term?
Keith Law: Francisco? Never heard any reason to think he’s not a catcher.

Ryan: I know its not your reporting but great reporting by The Athletic on this Mickey Callaway story. I guess the only thing disappointing is that MLB is trying absolve itself of responsibility for fostering this culture across multiple clubs.
Keith Law: Yes, Britt, Katie, and Ken have all done great work on that topic. I don’t think MLB would ever admit to any responsibility for the existence of that culture, or to a failure to stop it sooner (I think that’s the better take – they didn’t foster it so much as ignore it). But at this point I will take any progress as it comes while pushing for more.

Robert: Reid Detmers has added a lot of velocity so far this year. Does this development significantly raise his ceiling for you?
Keith Law: Let’s see him hold it first.

Jeffrey: How far has Kevin Abel fallen since the 2018 CWS?
Keith Law: I’m not sure where you even draft him at this point. Might have been a first-rounder before Oregon State abused his arm. Now I don’t think you go in before the fourth round.

Joe: Given the expected dates of their better MiLB prospects contributing, how long before the O’s are competitive?
Keith Law: I think Derek asked me about that on a recent podcast and I said not in the next 3 years. Their talent is a little too far away and the division doesn’t make it easier. I have heard great stuff on DL Hall, though, and while it’s a small sample, striking out 31 of 67 batters he’s faced this year is (runs Monte Carlo simulation) good.

Chris P: Should we be concerned about Luzardo’s ability to stay in the rotation for a full season?
Keith Law: Yes. Unfortunately for him, the one time he stayed healthy for just about an entire season was the time the entire season was only 60 games.

Kevin: Gunnar Henderson is playing like a top 20 prospect this season. He need to be aggressively pushed to HiA
Keith Law: Counterpoint: No, he doesn’t.
Keith Law: He’s 20, off to a good start in low A, but hardly dominating to the point that you’d think a 16-game sample is indicative that he belongs at the higher level.

Nick V: If you were in the position to make such a judgement for a MLB franchise, would you give the thumbs up or down for allowing your higher value prospects to play for Team USA?
Keith Law: Probably thumbs down, if I’m making a decision in the franchise’s best interests.

Warbiscuit: Connor Prielipp is out for the year. At this point is it still possible he gets drafted with one abbreviated season and a season plagued with injuries?
Keith Law: He’s not eligible this year. He’s eligible in 2022, and probably won’t pitch at all that spring, so he might be a guy to watch for 2023.

addoeh: Italy and Wales in the same group for Euros and you said you were with Wales when it’s rugby.  Back with the Azzurri because it is soccer?
Keith Law: Yeah, I gotta back the blue this time.

Jack: Whens the Austin Riley apology essay dropping on The Athletic?
Keith Law: If Riley turns out to be an above-average regular, he’ll make one of my year-end columns on players I got wrong … but I’m not sure if it’s smart to let about four good weeks outweigh about a season and a half of awful. I’d be ignoring an entire chapter of my own book.

Tom: The Red Sox just optioned Franchy Cordero to Triple-A. Do you think Duran is ready to be called up?
Keith Law: I do. And I’m all in on Duran’s swing change and resulting power.

ralph: Chances Gabriel Moreno becomes a Dude?
Keith Law: Aside from catchers just generally getting hurt a lot, I think really high. He’s probably their catcher of the future.

Nick: Some forgotten names Korry Howell and Cornelius Randolph are both off to hot starts and showing some power. Are they on your radar at all?
Keith Law: No, because it’s less than a month. You have to wait on this stuff – it’s even worse this year because of the altered schedules, so if you happen to have faced, say, a certain low-A team that can barely win a game, your stats might be skewed.

Guest: Since Will Craig is trending, why did the Pirates draft him in the first round? Didn’t seem like a good pick at the time and hasn’t panned out.
Keith Law: Never understood that one. Everyone knows Wake Forest is a bandbox and he didn’t look like his power would play elsewhere.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thanks for reading and for checking out my first mock draft over at the Athletic. I’ll do another one of those in mid-June or so, then two more leading up to the draft. In the meantime I’ll be back on the minor league beat more now that the high schools around here are wrapping up. Stay safe & go get vaccinated!

Klawchat 5/21/21.

Check out my review of the board game Cryo, which John Tomase & I played and enjoyed, over at Paste.

Keith Law: And when you put it all together, there’s the model of a Klawchat.

John M: Do you have any Austin food recommendations?
Keith Law: Franklin BBQ, of course. I liked Backspace pizza last time I was there. Better Half is great for breakfast/Coffee. Micklethwait also good for BBQ. Here’s my last writeup from there.

RH: What non-racist team name would you most like to change?
Keith Law: Are we allowed to go all sports? The Utah Jazz is just ridiculous. Aside from the two derived from Native American culture, are there really any bad MLB team names? Some might be boring but none are bad.

AJ Preller: Is Ketel Marte or Bryan Reynolds a remote possibility in left field post deadline?
Keith Law: Why would either team rush to deal those guys? I’d expect the prospect cost to be significant.

Steve: Will you have a column up about scouting Mozzicato? What were your thoughts on him?  I went to his no hitter at Southington, couldn’t believe how hard he threw with that frame (looks like a frame he could add weight to)
Keith Law: Yeah, I’m just waiting to see another player or two so I can write them all up as one post. He’s good, second round over slot type. Legit CB.

The Bench: Is Jared Walsh doing things a 39th round draft pick shouldn’t be doing?
Keith Law: Yes, and no. Teams are also willing to take more risks with 39th rounders. Also, he’s destroying RHP but right now he’s just a platoon guy.
Keith Law: Any value from a 39th round pick is amazing, though. Score one for the area scout.

CD: Prep RHP get a bad rep. Why is this exactly? What specifically makes them riskier? Since they were the best youth pitchers are they more likely to be overused?
Keith Law: The data tell us their reputation is deserved. They flame out at a higher rate.

Brandon: If the Dbacks aren’t going to play Varsho everyday why is he up right now!?
Keith Law: That’s a reasonable question.

Jack: I’ve seen the White Sox toying around with Gavin Sheets in right field – any chance he could exist in an outfield with Andrew Vaughn or is that just asking too much of Billy Hamilton / Robert when he’s back?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen Sheets in the outfield, but having seen him at first base I’d be surprised if he could be even a 45 defender in RF.

JMD: Aside from the obvious injury concern. How much are matt Allan and Pete crow Armstrong going to be impacted in your mind by going so long without playing competitively. These injuries couldn’t seemingly be timed worse. Will such a long layoff impact there ability to reach there peak or reach the majors?
Keith Law: More worried about PCA than Allan. Another lost year of at bats is more of a concern than a year of lost innings for a teenaged arm.

Mike: When do you plan to drop your first mock?
Keith Law: Next Thursday, 5/27.

Mike: Hi Keith – any rumblings on what the Red Sox might want to do at 4?
Keith Law: I think they’d prefer college (Rocker, Davis, Leiter) over HS.

Greg: Are the Giants for real? Can that starting pitching maintain?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’ll last, not at this level. I don’t think they have a top 3 offense and top 3 pitching staff in the league. That said, going .500 the rest of the way still puts them at 87-75, which could be a playoff record.

Aaron: Hi Keith, thanks for these chats. Early thoughts on Andrew Vaughn?
Keith Law: He’s looked a little overmatched, but not so much so that they should bench or demote him (not like, say, Ryan Mountcastle).

ralph: What do you think will happen if/when MLB bans the shift?
Keith Law: Joe Sheehan suggested players will sell out for pull power even more and K’s will go up. I’m still holding out hope that actual baseball people will fight this one … it’s the dumbest suggested rule change of all. It’s entirely reactionary.

TC: Do you have a timeline for when TLR will be blasted into space towards the sun? I don’t know how that locker room can continue to play for him.
Keith Law: Derek Van Riper asked me this on the podcast yesterday, which you can catch on Apple or Spotify. Short answer: I don’t think the owner is going to rush to fire his buddy.

Brian: Small sample size & high BABIP aside, what more does Owen Miller have to do to get some at bats with Cleveland and their anemic offense? He has hit at every level of the minors thus far. Also, what round do you see his brother Noah getting drafted this year? High enough to pass on Alabama?
Keith Law: He’s semi-blocked at the moment; I don’t think they’re rushing to bench Cesar Hernandez when he’s making more than most of his teammates combined, and Miller shouldn’t displace Rosario. But I would expect Miller to be up by midyear. Noah Miller is in my top 50 and I can’t imagine he goes to school.

Mike: What ever happened with Gregory Polanco? Why did he not turn into the star that people expected him to?
Keith Law: I think it’s injuries. He got pretty close in 2018, at age 26, but that has been his peak and maybe it always will be.

Les Deeny: Any early guesses on where Corey Seager lands in the offseason? My gut says it could ultimately be the Giants who pry him away from the Dodgers. Tell my gut it’s wrong.
Keith Law: I really have no idea on that. I just wait to see where they end up and write about it.

Derak: What is happening with Alek Manoah? Doesn’t seem like anyone could have predicted this breakout but maybe the Blue Jays did by jumping him up to AAA so fast. Has what he’s done this years changed your outlook on him? Is he showing the high quality pitches necessary to develop into a top 20 pitcher?
Keith Law: Had there been a full 2020 season, he would likely have started at high A and finished in AA, so starting this year in AAA isn’t that surprising if you think of this as where he would have been anyway – especially if the Jays felt like they saw enough progress from him at the alt site last year. I don’t think anything’s changed on him yet, though – the stuff is pretty close to the same as always (and I liked him a ton in college) so 3 starts shouldn’t change our minds.

Kevin: Would you be totally against a 1st half 2nd half winner baseball playoff format?
Keith Law: Yes. Like, “man the barricades” against it.

Gary: I expect the dodgers to trade for some bullpen help seeing as how they only have like 3 guys they trust at the moment. But could Josiah Gray spend some time in the pen?
Keith Law: I favor that kind of development path.

Jeffrey: Do you think Larnach stays up and will we see Adley this year?
Keith Law: When Kirilloff and Buxton return, that’s four outfielders for three spots. They could boot Sano and move someone to first, but if that’s not happening, one of the two rookies gets sent down.

Deej: Sat in the vaccinated section of a ballpark earlier this week. It felt incredibly weird to be sitting that close to other people. Have you been back in a crowd yet?
Keith Law: I’ve been to an airport, which was the weirdest and most uncomfortable part of the trip. Do most people just not know where their noses are?

Guest: Would a lower seam and deader baseballs result in a more interesting game?
Keith Law: Deader baseballs might. Not sure about the lower seams – that seems (no pun intended) like a recipe for unintended consequences.

Punk in Drublic: SSS not withstanding, any minor leaguers you are hearing about that you are viewing significantly different than you ranked them since there are actual games and players may have added velo, improved or added a pitch, or hitting approach?
Keith Law: I think it’s a little too soon for that.

Guest: Any hope for Logan Warmouth? He’s been a dud at every level and suddenly he’s got an .938 OPS in triple A. Or is this just a case of sample size?
Keith Law: And that’s why I think so.

ivy: Is there any hope of the Orioles being competitive in the next three years?
Keith Law: Barring a major budget increase, no, I don’t think their minor league talent is close enough for that.

Tony LaRussa: You better be using a typewriter and not a laptop or I’m fining your ass $100.
Keith Law: And you’re going to call me out to the media, too.

Kevin: What kind of expectations do you still have for Kyle Wright? Maddening inconsistency and already 25
Keith Law: I can’t figure him out. His stuff is good enough, yet he gets hit way harder than he should, especially his fastball. There’s no obvious reason why he should be performing this poorly.

JR: I know you’re not a football guy and like me I’m sure you’re happy the Tebow clown show is gone from baseball but now he’s resurfaced in the nfl. Taking a roster spot from someone more deserving in the name of selling tickets and merchandise.
Keith Law: I saw some more defenders come out of the woodwork when that news broke. He may really believe what he says he does, but I find it hard to reconcile that with the obvious selfishness of his professional sports careers.

David: Hi Keith,
Do you think Jaden Hill or Gunnar Hogland will be available when the 2nd round starts? I’m wondering if either would be a worthy gamble for the Pirates.
Keith Law: I would guess not.

Joe: Any Orioles minor leaguers you have gotten good reports on so far?
Keith Law: Yep, and I wrote about it here.

Jordan: I know there are at least a few MLB scouting departments that are highly skeptical of taking a prep arm in the first round, but should someone like Jackson Jobe be an exception to that thinking with the kind of stuff he possesses at 18-years-old?
Keith Law: I don’t think so – I’d argue that’s the sort of base-rate neglect bias that teams should be trying to avoid, the “this guy is DIFFERENT” mentality. Unless you know some tangible reason why Jobe  is more likely to stay healthy than all the other athletic hard-throwing high school pitchers who’ve gone in the first round and failed, you should be very wary of taking him in the top half of the first. And that has nothing to do with Jobe specifically. High school pitchers fail more often, period.

John Mozeliak: Is this .250/.300/.500 version of Tyler O’Neill sustainable and can he be a solid regular outfielder moving forward?
Keith Law: I really have little to no interest in corner players with that profile. They’re too easy to find or create in this offensive environment.
Keith Law: Oh, also, I’m not sure how any hitter can last with plate discipline like his. 35 K and 3 BB? In the last 20 years only one MLB hitter has qualified for the batting title with a K:BB ratio of 11 or higher, and that’s Tim Anderson, who has the benefit of being a shortstop.

Aaron C.: Who, in your opinion, is the most infamous prep draftee who should’ve took the money?
Keith Law: Oh that’s easily Matt Harrington. But I could offer others – Karsten Whitson, who reneged on TWO deals, came up in a chat with a scout recently because Whitson is coaching now. Plus all the kids who take themselves out of the draft entirely because their college coaches conned them into doing so – how many of them have gotten paid? Chris Harvey did it to matriculate early at Vanderbilt, got 217 PA total the whole time he was there, and wasn’t even drafted. We’ll see how it works out for Mike Vasil, who could have had $2 million easy in 2018, this July.

Michael: If you had to give a player a 20 rating for a skill, which would be the one that wouldn’t stop them from being an impact player?
Keith Law: Plenty of 20 runners have been superstars.

JR: Are you still wearing a mask indoors even if the business doesn’t require for those that have been vaccinated (per recent cdc guidance)? I thought I would for a while but am already finding myself ditching it at places that don’t require (and yes I’ve been vaccinated)
Keith Law: I went to Trader Joes today and still wore my mask, even though I’m two weeks past my second shot. I’m not wearing it outdoors unless required, or if I were too close to other people, although the latter hasn’t happened yet.

J: I know it is early and SSS but Pedro Leon’s start is… not great, Roberto.  Anything gleaned or heard?
Keith Law: First four games: 11 K in 17 PA. Since then: 9 K in 36 PA. Does it mean anything? Probably not. But the problem with these tiny samples so far is that they can be skewed too easily by what amounts to one bad series. He has not been good in any sense of the word, though.

Dr. Bob: Dylan Carlson is showing why everyone was so high on him. I got to watch him several times here in Springfield, MO. The ball just came off his bat differently than the other players and he was so much faster than everyone else.
Keith Law: He’s athletic and patient and has great instincts on both sides of the ball. Great, great job by the Cardinals’ scouting and development staffs there.

Joe: Have you heard any reports on what is happening with Sean Burke.  Moved back to Sunday with really short outings.  Just managing innings with basically two years off?
Keith Law: Stuff has been way down. He was on my top 50 last month but I took him completely off my Big Board (top 100) last week.

Sedona: Will Luzardo reach his ceiling of front of rotation arm?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s really his ceiling – I think he’s a #2 if he stays healthy. That’s still very good, of course, but if he ends up a top 15 pitcher in baseball that would beat my best expectations for him.

Jeffrey: Now that Madrigal has established himself as a home run threat, should the White Sox move him to clean up?
Keith Law: Don’t give Tony any ideas.

J: So the Athletic’s article about pitchers and foreign substances was intriguing, and opened up a weird line of thinking. Will a pitcher recently called up from the minors, whether its a Lynch or a Gilbert, or a less-heralded guy like Peacock or Benjamin, having a learning curve about ‘doctoring’ the baseball? IOW, is it a competitive disadvantage for rookies?
Keith Law: That’s an interesting point I hadn’t considered. Are they also using similar gunk in the minors? Why not? But if MLB wants to boost offense, enforcing their own damn rules on doctoring the baseball would be a great place to start. Otherwise, I’m busting out my Microplane grater and asking the Phillies for a tryout.

Matt: If Antifa is responsible for the Insurrection, why doesn’t the GOP want to investigate what happened./s
Keith Law: We all know the answer.
Keith Law: Just from a pragmatic perspective, is the GOP’s continued playing towards its base, away from the center, really the right strategy? Doesn’t it reduce your ability to win a lot of close elections? Hotelling’s law says that in a two-party system you’d expect the two parties to move towards the center so they could each capture about half the market. Instead, the Democrats are drifting left, but the Republicans are lurching to the right.

Aaron C.: Crack Shack or Juniper & Ivy? Got some friends from the east coast coming into town over Memorial Day weekend. (We’re all 2x vaxxed!)
Keith Law: Depends on what you want. Crack Shack is fast and casual and good for a loud meal outside. J&I is incredible but it’s fine dining, still good for a social meal but you’re inside and it’s upscale.

Ciscoskid: would a prep RHP profile of avg FB plus CB, avg CHG with body projection with maturity a safer profile than a plus FB avg CB/CG/SL
Keith Law: That’s Braxton Garrett, although he was a LHP, and he blew out too. We really don’t know.

Jason S: Pavin Smith hits the ball hard, but he’s not hitting hrs. Is there a lot more power potential with him with a Duran swing adjustment?
Keith Law: The word from the Dbacks last fall/winter was that he had made an adjustment to drive the ball more. Either he didn’t hold it, or he’s not using it in games, just in scrimmages etc.

Dan: I have kids who are too young to get vaccinated. The end of masking means that I’m reluctant to take them to e.g. the grocery store. The positivity rate here is about 0.5%. Am I being stupid?
Keith Law: No, you’re being cautious. The good news is that their chances of getting sick if they get the virus are lower than their odds would be if they were 12 or older. But they can still catch it and transmit it.

Murph: Assuage my fears that the Orioles aren’t going to do something dumb at #5 and will take one of the two remaining of Rocker, Davis, Leiter, Mayer, Lawler and House.
Keith Law: I don’t know that House belongs in that tier. I mean, he definitely doesn’t. He’s 11 on my Big Board. But yes, I have heard them on him.

Kevin: I’m an no better, so this is not a dig, but I bought one of the signed copies of The Inside Game, and if you would have showed me the signature separately I wouldn’t have guessed it said Keith Law. Looking forward to reading next month on vacation!
Keith Law: For better or worse, that’s been my signature for 30+ years.

KDC: Should Seattle trade Haniger?
Keith Law: Yes.

Gabe: Mount Rushmore of games? (For me: Ticket to Ride, Pandemic though I might never wanna play again, Carcassonne…tie between Dominion and Splendor for that #4 spot though maybe Winspan’ll take it if I can ever carve out time to play it)
Keith Law: 7 Wonders would be on mine. I don’t mean to dodge the question, but it depends on whether this is just my four favorite games, or four games that I think stand as giants in the board game space for their influence or impact. Catan doesn’t make the first quartet, but it has to be #1 in the second quartet.

Jesse B: The Corbin Carroll injury sucks. He was probably going to move up to AA soon. How does this change his timeline? Still play Fall ball and start next season in AA ideally?
Keith Law: I don’t know if he’ll be ready for the Fall League (if there will be a Fall League, even) but I hope he can. I assume he’d then start in AA.

Todd Boss: The Nat’s low-A team is 0-15, with a -115 run differential.  Can they ever win a game?  🙂
Keith Law: Oh my god. I thought you were joking. They’re really 0-15 with 39 runs scored and 154 runs allowed. They’re slugging .213 and the team ERA is 8.09.

Alex: With Witt Jr. struggling at the start and the Royals plummeting out of the race, is there any chance we see him this year?
Keith Law: I would assume not, but maybe he turns it around and works his way up in September. Remember all the calls for him to make the major-league team back in March? Yeah. Maybe spring training stats just don’t mean anything.

Tim: Read another writer say Henry Davis may not stick behind the plate and could be a possible 3b.  Do you see him sticking at C?
Keith Law: Yes. Without a doubt.

Jason: Do you think the Rs would actually splinter and a new actual conservative party could emerge, or is it more likely that the dam breaks against Trump?
Keith Law: I’m no expert, not even knowledgeable about these things, but it sure looks like the party is heading right for the cliff with two feet firmly pressed on the accelerator.

Tom: It was interesting to hear you appear on a conservative (blanking on his name)’s sports podcast last month to talk draft etc. Was there any hesitation on that one (or conservative podcasts in general)?
Keith Law: I declined to appear on a show where the host was spreading Big Lie and COVID denialist stuff on Twitter. That’s not “conservative,” though, that’s batshit.

Sam: Are you going to be live during the draft again this year?
Keith Law: Man, I hope so. Do you know something about my health that I don’t?

Bru: Top athlete from another sport that you’d love to have seen play baseball? Wilt for me.
Keith Law: Wilt was 7’1″, too tall for baseball unfortunately. How about Federer? What if he grew up in California playing baseball?
Keith Law: That’s a good place to end this week. Thank you all for reading & for your questions. My first mock draft for 2021 will be up next week at The Athletic, and just a reminder that my book, The Inside Game, is now out in paperback and available for your Father’s Day purchasing needs. Thanks again!

Klawchat 4/22/21.

My latest post for subscribers to the Athletic looks at Louisville catcher Henry Davis, maybe the best prospect in this year’s draft class, and other draft prospects from Louisville, Virginia, and the high school ranks.

Keith Law: I’ve got the answer. Open the envelope. Klawchat.

Mac: Will Jackson Jobe get top 5 consideration?
Keith Law: No. The last two drafts didn’t include a HS pitcher in the top 15 picks. Jobe shouldn’t be a top 5 pick on his own merits, or with what might be an industry trend away from HS pitchers up top.

Larry: Do you think Henry Davis’ receiving will improve? He has a problem with the catching part of catching.
Keith Law: That’s wrong. He receives well, throws plus, could use some help with blocking. I’m not sure where you got that information but it’s bad.

addoeh: It might be confirmation bias on my part, but it seems there are more HS seniors from cold weather states projected to go in the first couple of rounds the last few years or so, but especially this year.  Is this accurate?
Keith Law: It seems accurate this year, but I don’t see a trend. California and Texas are just having their worst HS years in memory, and that’s creating opportunity (or need) for cold-weather kids to fill the gap.

Bill G: Thanks as always for doing these chats.  How would you use Ohtani?  Starter/DH, Starter only, DH only, DH/Closer?  Thanks!
Keith Law: Just pick one. He’s a hitter or a pitcher. I think the Angels are losing some value by trying to have him do both.

AJ: Jazz is sure looking like the star you’ve said he would be. What is his ceiling? And do you think he’ll get that K rate down, or is 25-30% just who he is?
Keith Law: I could see him settling into the 23-25% range, but between the way the game is now and the way he swings, I doubt he ever has a year where he’s better than the league median in K%. I’m glad to see his at bats overall are better, though.

Fuzzy Dunlop: Around what round projection do you start seeing 6-8 organizations area scouts at that particular player’s game/starts?  Our local HS Friday starter has probably seen that many at every one of his starts, but I can’t see him being more than a 15th-20th round guy. I know its obviously not an exact formula, but I always wondered.
Keith Law: That doesn’t add up. If he’s a HS pitcher on Fridays – the night most colleges throw their best guys – he wouldn’t have six area scouts there unless he’s a first-rounder. You’re seeing part-timers or they’re not scouts at all.

RickG: Hey Keith. Have you considered returning to Top Chef recaps, or would you ever? This season has been very interesting. I re-watched some seasons during the Pandemic and whenever possible re-read your takes – I’ve learned much more about cooking then I knew when the shows first aired and found your perspective even better the 2nd time around.
Keith Law: I appreciate that very much, but those took around 3 hours (viewing + writing) to do, and I just don’t have that kind of time any more.

Tom: Pavin Smith seeing some regular playing time. With the adjustment to his launch angle over the past year, what do you see his offensive output looking like?
Keith Law: He’s still getting on top of the ball a little too much, but I see a high-OBP 20-homer guy.

Guest: A few weeks (months?) ago you appeared on an Orioles podcast mentioned that one thing were concerned about for Kjerstad was his strikeout rate. What is more concerning about his strikeouts than, say, George Springer’s, who is someone you were higher on than consensus when he was coming out of college?
Keith Law: Kjerstad struck out way more often with far fewer walks. Springer had plate discipline, but didn’t bring a two-strike approach (other than “swing hard”). Kjerstad doesn’t have that.

J: Do you know where Pedro Leon is headed once the minor league seasons start? Or is he going to be in limbo for a while? Also – more impossible question – what can/should expectations be for him?
Keith Law: I doubt we’ll see many assignments till next week. Minor league season starts in 12 days, though!

davealden53: From 2009 to 2019, two friends and I took annual minor league trips of a week or more to different regions.  2020 was lost and 2021 isn’t looking a lot better.  Instead, we’re considering the Arizona Fall League for the first week of November.  What have you heard about the AFL plans for this year?  Will the season extend into November?  And will fans be allowed to attend games?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything yet and I’m concerned MLB will just decide to axe the league to save another $23.

TomBruno23: For years the Vitae Foundation, a pro-life organization based in Jefferson City, MO, has been a sponsor of St. Louis Cardinals baseball on KMOX. This season they bring us the starting lineups each and every game. How upset should I be about this? I honestly do not know. https://vitaefoundation.org/
Keith Law: I wouldn’t give my money to the team in that situation, but my guess is that they’re playing to their base.

Tom: Joc Pederson off to a slow start. Sure, SSS, but he’s K’ing a lot even for him. Think he can be a solid offensive contributor?
Keith Law: I do, but I’m concerned that he’s whiffing so much against RHP. He’s never really hit lefties and expecting him to is foolhardy.

Sedona: Is Aaron Ashby the 3rd best SP in the entire org?
Keith Law: No – I’m not completely sold that he’s a starter.

Michael: Hi Keith. Giants fan here – interested to see what you think of farhans strategy the past two plus seasons?  I know we are better than we were when he got here and appreciate that we didn’t “tank”, but do you feel we are actually closer to competing for a championship now than two years ago?  Thanks!
Keith Law: Yes, I like the overall direction, and especially the way they’re trying out veterans who might benefit from a change of scenery and approach, players who’d be great trade pieces in July if the Giants are out of it. The worst thing that could happen would be some fake contention where they keep all of those guys instead.

Moe Mentum: It’s still early (SSS) but what should the Phillies do about their glaring hole in center field? I know you won’t recommend Odubel Herrera, but…
Keith Law: I’d probably play Quinn out there, of the options on the roster. They can fire Herrera into the sun for all I care. Moniak isn’t the answer, and while I wish the best for Haseley, they have to move on. I don’t think they have anyone close enough in the system to be better than a replacement-level Quinn.

Aaron in Indy: Glad to see Yankee fans handling their early season struggles with the patience and level headedness that we could only come to expect.

But seriously, does Boone make it thru the year if they don’t drastically improve.  And I think they will start hitting more especially when Volt comes back.  But do they have enough pitching (including minor league) to make a run at the division???
Keith Law: It’s not even 10% of the season, though. Joe Sheehan wrote somewhere the other day that every team has a 5-10 stretch at some point, even the best teams. The overreaction to the small sample is mind-boggling, even if you buy into the stereotype of the Yankee fan (I think Yankee fans are no different than fans of other teams, but we think they’re louder because there are so many more of them).

Sedona: Has Kopech shown anything differently so far to change your outlook on him?
Keith Law: No, this is what I thought he’d do in a relief role – now we’ll see how it goes as he stretches out, if his command holds (it really turned a corner in the last two months he spent in the minors) and he stays healthy.

Jason: Are reverse splits a real thing for relievers?  Chris Martin was substantially better against lefties in 2019 (and better in 2020, though his numbers were really good against both), but I’m curious as to whether that can be sustinable
Keith Law: They can be real, but you’d probably need about three years’ worth of innings to be sure of it. It would help if you could see it in the arsenal – a pitcher with a great changeup or split, but not much of a breaking ball, would likely have a reverse split.

John: An mlb.com mock draft published yesterday showed Rocker falling to the Red Sox at 4.  What do you see as the chances of that happening?
Keith Law: Not unreasonable.

Noah: Re: the Mets front office, don’t you think at this point Sandy Alderson has to step down?  One mistake in hiring is maybe something you can shrug off (although with sexual harassment, I don’t think so), but this is a pattern.
Keith Law: Yes, he absolutely does, for rehiring someone with a history of harassment over the active objections of multiple current employees. I have always liked and respected Sandy, but this is not just an error in judgment, and his response to the Athletic article did not help matters.
Keith Law: My guess is that he’ll finish the year and be allowed to “resign” on his terms, since his departure now would leave an interim GM and no baseball executive above him, but I wouldn’t even wait that long. It sends a horrible message to the organization.

Jason: Is billy mckinney (with his former first round pedigree) a breakout candidate or is he just having a hot start?
Keith Law: He has a .297 OBP. That’s not a hot start.

Steve: What is the main reason Wander Franco isn’t a major leaguer yet?
Keith Law: He’s never played above A-ball.

Ben Z: Alright Keith. Hit us with your Oscar picks. I know you haven’t seen MINARI yet (I think), my choice for Best Picture of the nominees, albeit in a deservedly tight, strong 1-2 race with Nomadland…so setting that movie aside for now…
Keith Law: I think Nomadland will win, and it would be my pick. This year’s possible Green Book is The Trial of the Chicago 7, which is very actorly and Such an Important Movie, You Know, In This Moment, but which I would rank 8th of the nominees.

Zach: Do you think Tejay Antone’s stuff can hold up in the rotation? It looks like has video game cheat codes.
Keith Law: Big spin guy but more likely a reliever in the end. Stuff plays, though.

Uli Jon: I thought this was going to be an above average draft a year ago, which maybe says something about early projections as well as Covid weirdness. If you had to pick one, would you say this class is weak or more of a shrug emoji?
Keith Law: It’s ended up weak. Now maybe it’s because guys were rusty, or are dealing with more fatigue than usual, but it’s a weak class.

Anthony: If Tatis was still a prospect would you drop him in your rankings because of this shoulder issue?
Keith Law: No, that’s absurd.

Frank: You seem to be a big Henry Davis fan from your article.  If you were picking 1-1 would you take him over any of the pitchers?
Keith Law: I am going to see Leiter (if possible) in the next few weeks, but right now, I think I would. Elite bat at catcher. Position player > pitcher. And the pitchers this year, while very good up top, are not Strasburg/Cole/Price.

Michael: Vlad is crushing it. Is it because he’s really in the best shape of his life or something else?
Keith Law: Two possible explanations: either it’s because he’s putting the ball in the air a lot more (launch angle is way up over 2019 or 220), or it’s because I made him a breakout pick last year and those names always seem to be a year too early (or, as with Rickie Weeks, just never right).

Jays: Are the Jays’ defensive issues an organizational failure or the logical outcome of a bat first bottleneck? Is improvement even possible?
Keith Law: Bat-first bottleneck, sure, but also, why play Bichette at short over Semien? why play Biggio at third? They’re making some specific choices that, while probably not huge individually, might add up to 10 or more runs allowed over the course of the year.

Ben Z: What do you think is the proper course for my Nats? It seems like their window has finally shut. It’s been a great decade and I’m not complaining (nor can I get too upset over things like the Strasburg and Corbin contracts or their failure to extend young position player superstars or trading away Giolito and Luzardo…who knows, remove one of these, and maybe they don’t get their ring)…but this will be a tough plane to take apart and rebuild…
Keith Law: Scherzer would be quite the coveted midseason acquisition if they choose to trade him. I know that’s not Rizzo’s MO, but he could probably make a killing.

Amos: Hi Keith – If you were in charge of the A’s, would you roll the dice on Jaden Hill towards the end of the 1st round? They’ve gambled on high end tools in Beck and Murray and Hill seems like a similar lottery ticket type pick if given the time to recover from TJ surgery. Thanks.
Keith Law: Depends on the medicals, but yeah, where they pick, it would be a worthwhile gamble in this draft.

Guest: The standard answer is you should never draft for need and the worst result is you have multiple talented prospects at the same position which you can trade- buuuut, would the Yankees take another catcher at 20 (given the prep catcher talent) if they’ve drafted 3 catchers in the top 2 rounds in the last 3 years?
Keith Law: Why, though? It’s not a great prep catcher class, so I’m not sure why they’d specifically take one with greater depth in other areas of the class.

Max: What does Del Castillo have to do to get back into the top-5ish part of the draft a lot of people pegged him at earlier this year?
Keith Law: That’s just not happening.

HH: Are teams allowed to ask players whether they’ve had the Covid-19 vaccine, and if not, whether they plan to get it? Would you downgrade a player who refused relative to a similar player who wouldn’t? If so, how much?
Keith Law: That’s a good question. I assume they could ask, given what they’re allowed to ask players about their medical histories. I would consider refusal to get a vaccine as an indicator of questionable makeup. It shows a lack of critical thinking.

Mac: I get all that about Jobe but what if he’s a unicorn?  HS right hander aside he sure checks a lot of boxes for a TOR pitcher.
Keith Law: He’s not, though. He doesn’t check any more boxes than Abel did. And you’re ignoring the base rate – why is he going to be a unicorn? Because he’s tall and athletic? So are lots of top HS pitchers. Because he throws hard? Well, even more do that.
Keith Law: Jobe is a good prospect. He doesn’t belong in the top 5.

Dylan: Re travel to Texas for scouting Lawlar — I was in Dallas this past weekend, and nearly everyone I encountered was masked.  My sense is that the metro areas still act about like they did under the mask orders, but that it’s a different story in rural areas.
Keith Law: That’s great to hear, although his season is about to end on Tuesday, and there will only be limited chances to see him beyond that.

Chris: Thoughts on Frankie Montas?
Keith Law: He’s a reliever, always has been. I’m amazed how much of a chance he’s gotten to start.

JC: Austin Riley’s baseball savant’s page is hard to look at – do you think this was a case of the Braves actually thinking he could get better, or just being cheap and hoping they can get anything for min salary? Just all around frustrating to watch him now
Keith Law: I assume it was more cost than anything else – play the existing options, wait for Shewmake to pop by the end of this year.

Rob: Have you seen a single coherent argument *against* DC statehood? I mean sure, it is a “power grab” to a certain extent. But what isn’t these days? Tell me why DC doesn’t *deserve* statehood and maybe I’ll listen, wingnuts!
Keith Law: I haven’t. It’s all rooted in race or party.

Graves: Should I impute to an organization the beliefs of its advertisers? If so, why?
Keith Law: They made an active choice to partner with an anti-abortion group. If your favorite team chose to partner with a white supremacist group, would you not impute those beliefs to the team?

Brett: Have you seen Arkansas outfielder Christian Franklin? Any thoughts on his draft stock?
Keith Law: Second/third round type. Been much worse since conference play starter, but has some tools on both sides and could be an interesting project for someone. Maybe he gets into the comp round – there are a lot of guys in that Kam Misner sort of category, toolsy college outfielders who swing and miss way too much but have upside. After Jeren Kendall, though, teams seem reluctant to take them in the first round.

John: How serious is Jarren Duran’s swing and miss issue?
Keith Law: I’m sorry, what swing and miss issue? Did he play in some games this year I missed?

Pete: Do you think LaRussa is mis-handling Andrew Vaughn right now? He’s playing him sporadically and batting him 8th a lot, all while Vaughn is learning a new position. Is this messing with Vaughn’s development or is this the appropriate way for a win-now team to break in a prospect?
Keith Law: James Fagen said this on my podcast this week – if they’re not playing Vaughn every day, he should be in the minors once those start.

Mitchell: Klaw, how well do you think the Dbacks are set up for the future with Hazen. Lost cause this year but do they have enough in the system to be competitive down the road with Carroll, Robinson, Corbin, etc?
Keith Law: Yeah, the system is really strong, especially with some of the pitching on the come – if guys like Grammes and Cecconi really have turned the corner, the system will look a lot better in July when we reassess. The lack of a season last year to see if their supposed changes were real does hurt their perception, although it makes no difference in reality.

Ben Z: Do we think Victor Robles is ever going to reach what seemed to be his potential as a prospect to be a decent offensive player? Or has he regressed in a way that seems permanent?
Keith Law: His main problem seems to be that he just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough often enough. I’m not really sure how you fix that.

ivy: Do you see Dean Kremer as having the potential to become, say, a #3 starter? He can look terrific for several innings, seems to have problems sustaining his performance for more than a few innings. How fixable is that sort of problem?
Keith Law: The delivery isn’t great, but I think he can be a back-end guy, a 4 or a 5 who eats innings but is worse than league-average at run prevention.

Rodney: Slow start for Rowdy Tellez. Lots of folks were highlighting changes in his BB and K rates last year. But… it was 36 games, right? He’s still probably the same 4A/platoon guy?
Keith Law: Yep, same as he ever was.

Roger: when do we see kelenic and Franco in the majors?
Keith Law: I’m guessing May and June, respectively. We’ll see what Seattle does with Lewis back and the minors starting, so Trammell would have somewhere to play.

Bree: Keith – Love your work. The A’s have had a number of players who were relatively underrated as prospects v their big league performance (Olson, Chapman, Canha). Why do you think that’s the case, if there’s an underlying reason at all and who in their current system do you think could be next to outperform their current prospect status?
Keith Law: Canha was a rule 5 pick who’s been fine as a part-time player – he’s never even qualified for the batting title. He’s not in the class of Chapman, who cut down on his swing and miss right when he reached the majors, which is really remarkable. I asked some A’s people about it a few years ago for a column on “guys I got wrong,” and they said they didn’t have a great explanation for it, either. It was something he did on his own and they gave him the credit.

Ryan: I’m a Twins fan, please tell me it is going to be ok.  On another note, Kiriloff has to be up this weekend right?
Keith Law: I thought he was going to make the OD roster, so of course I’ll say yes.

David: What would you put the odds at that the Pirates draft someone other than Lieter? Your piece of Henry Davis opened my eyes.
Keith Law: I think they should explore Davis as an option, yes, absolutely, both because he might be the #1 prospect in the class, and because maybe they can get the best deal between him and Leiter (I don’t think they’re on a HS kid there) and do more at their next pick.

Jason: dinselson lamet– should he have gotten TJ
Keith Law: Uh … didn’t he have TJ?

Rob: Bummed that the Phils had to recall Kingery while he was still working on swing changes, and reportedly struggling with it. Seems like another setback for his development, no? What’s the prognosis now?
Keith Law: Not ideal, no.

Guest: The Yankees are obviously tanking for Elijah Greene right?
Keith Law: Man, I’ve heard some really mixed things on him. I talked to one scout who said it’s among the best tools prospects in years, and a day later another scout who wouldn’t take him in the first round.
Keith Law: I will say I find these year-ahead hype guys pan out less often than you’d think. I’m not saying this on Green, but often it’s the kid who grew fastest rather than the kid who’s the best prospect.

Matt: Thoughts on Cedric Mullins? Was a switch hitter who gave up hitting from the right side this year. Now top 5 in the AL in hits.  Small sample size, but it seems to be clicking more this year.
Keith Law: SSS.

Chris: Cape Cod League just announced their season! Can’t recall, do you still come up for some CC games ever? Be fun to run into you.
Keith Law: Yes, not since 2018, but I do love going up there and really hope to work it in this summer. Might have to be after the draft, though.

Amir: Do you think Thatcher Hurd could go in the 1st round? What do you think about him?
Keith Law: Maybe 5% chance. He’s a second-round talent and I think he’s someone’s second pick overpay, not a first-rounder. We’ll see, though – almost three months to the draft, so a lot of time for Hurd (or anyone) to show something new, throwing harder or showing more power or something, and change that.

Kevin C: Tatis’s slow start, not just at the plate but in the field is concerning.  How much should be attributed to the shoulder injury?
Keith Law: I’m assuming all of it is.

Mike: Point me to some Asheville eats please
Keith Law: Never been. Isn’t that sad?

Guest: Will the Pirates draft another “number three” pitcher 1-1?
Keith Law: I have had that worry with Leiter … he’s a better prospect than Bullington was, but if he’s not a future ace, will Pirates fans just put them in the same category?

Chris: George kirby is touching 101 now? I know all the reasons to not get excited, but have you heard/seen anything that makes his outlook change?
Keith Law: I heard that from Eric Longenhagen – I assume he wrote it, too – and if Kirby’s throwing that hard, yes, it changes his outlook, because his fastball played below its velocity in college. At, say, 96-101, though, “playing down” might still be okay.

Tim: Does Nick Madrigal have value even without the ability to hit for extra bases?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely – I’ve never said he had no value. He just has no ceiling.

Danial W: Glad you got to try Al Carbon while you were in town. Next time there are a couple pizzas up your alley, Lampo near downtown and surprisingly from Vivace near the stadium.  Have you had a chance to notice any significant changes from any major leaguers in this short season?
Keith Law: Lampo had a 140 minute wait for take-out that night. I didn’t have that kind of time. I’ve mentioned a few of those changes above, like Vlad Jr.’s swing change, and I don’t suppose it’s any news to talk about Corbin Burnes’ cutter (and he was already an ace in my mind).

David H: Thanks as always for doing these chats, Keith. Long-time reader, first-time poster. Wednesday was the 5th anniversary of Prince’s death, so I went through your archives to find your ranking of his top songs. I also read the LA Times list that ranked his 85 singles. The Times’ No. 1, “If I Was Your Girlfriend,” didn’t make your list, so I was just curious, given your status as a Prince fan, why that was?
Keith Law: What a weird choice. It’s not a very interesting or catchy song.

Matt: During weak draft classes, why don’t we see more teams punt to the next year?  If you’re 7th in a weak draft year, aren’t you better off not getting a deal done and picking 8th if the next year is stronger?
Keith Law: No, you’re definitely not. For one thing, you don’t know if the next draft is stronger. For another, you could lose your job before then, maybe for fucking up the draft, and then someone else gets that pick.

wickethewok: Would a season-long Buxton break out be the most gratifying case for you of a player fulfilling your projected potential (short of Rickie Weeks coming out of retirement)?
Keith Law: Yes, because good Byron Buxton is extremely good for baseball. The man is a walking highlight machine.

Jason: Hi Keith, do you ever listen to audiobooks?  I know you prefer dead trees, but audiobooks have really allowed me to get back to consuming books again
Keith Law: I do, but only certain genres, because I don’t have the same level of concentration and often miss stuff. It’s hard to do that with a novel and fully appreciate the work.

John: Bobby Witt Jr. over/under July 1?
Keith Law: After.

Dallas: Corbin Burnes went 4th round out of college. What was the report coming out of college and how much of this is talent vs. “pitch building” especially with the unreal spin rates on all of his pitches? My real question is how much of this is “pitch building”/adding spin?
Keith Law: Looks like I had him 46th overall on my Big Board that year. He faded somewhat toward the end of that spring for St. Mary’s, and I guess it really scared teams off; at the start of the year he looked like he might get into the late first round. Of course, his stuff is substantially better now than it was then.

Mike: What are your thoughts on the experiment of moving the mound back a foot?
Keith Law: I think it’s going to get a lot of pitchers hurt. MLB is incredible at failing to foresee the consequences of its actions.

Richard: Were you ever a baseball card collector?
Thoughts on the new Topps NFTs or NFTs in general?
Keith Law: As a kid yes. I would buy NFTs but I don’t want to sell off my South Seas stock.

Todd: Hi Keith – How did you rate Matt Olson as a prospect? What did you hit/miss about how he has turned out?
Keith Law: Made my top 100 once, then not the next year, then he was in the majors. This fluke start aside, he’s hit for some more average than I expected.

Rob: I enjoyed the Henry Davis article – I realize it’s too early for a mock draft, but any indication that teams’ thinking is evolving to have him as a top five and maybe 1-1 guy?
Keith Law: I ran that idea by a bunch of people before writing it, and nobody said it was crazy or just wrong. Most folks agreed that Davis should be in the top tier – I didn’t really go further than that – with the Vandy boys and Lawlar.

Food Fan: Hey, thanks for the chat! Cooking question. I have never used sherry vinegar but find myself with some recipes I want to try where I need it. I can’t find it easily without long drives to places I don’t usually go, something I just don’t want to do during a pandemic. Therefore, I will buy online. The options are overwhelming and I’m not sure which to select or how much to spend. Any specific recommendations?
Keith Law: I usually buy it at Whole Foods when one is on sale – any brand – because it is expensive. Jose Andres has one that’s good and often is $2-3 off at my store.

Mike: At what point does marijuana get federally legalized? And with that can we get the records of those locked up because of it exspunged?
Keith Law: I think that happens under this Administration. More than half of the population lives in states where it’s at least decriminalized. And it is such a waste of time and money to treat its possession or use as a crime. I’m in favor of the latter part as well.

Rick: You need to relax and stop trying to do the right thing.
Keith Law: Well that’s the worst advice I’ve ever gotten.

Jason: You mentioned weird defensive decisions – remember when the Phillies played Kingery at SS and Crawford at 3B for a while?  Did that make any sense?
Keith Law: No, but lo and behold, Crawford improved when he went to Seattle and played shortstop full time.

Jason: When are you coming out with a LawCoin?
Keith Law: Climate change is serious enough without me adding to it.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all for all of your questions and for reading! I should be back next week for another chat, and I’ll be back on the Athletic’s daily baseball podcast tomorrow morning. Don’t forget to pick up The Inside Game, now out in paperback, at your local bookstore or online via Bookshop. Thanks again!

Klawchat 4/9/21.

Starting at 1 pm ET. I have a new game review up at Paste, of the pickup-and-delivery game Maglev Metro; and a new post for subscribers to the Athletic, looking at the top 100 prospects who’ve played in the majors so far this year.

Keith Law: A thousand times I’ve seen this road. Klawchat.

Richard: Early in their respective careers, you thought Correa and Bregman should probably switch defensive positions to highlight their respective strengths.  Now it seems like Correa is likely to be paid as a top-flight SS…has he worked to improve his defense that much over the last 3 seasons?
Keith Law: He might be paid as one, but he’s not a top-flight defender at short; he’s probably a 45 defender who’s helped by shifting/positioning. I’m still going to rank him very highly as a free agent but with some expectation that he’ll move off SS over the course of a long-term deal.

Tom: If Tanner Houck’s increased velocity is sustainable, does that change your expectations for him, or is that more contingent on developing a change up to counter lefties?
Keith Law: The latter.

Moe Mentum: What improvements do the Phillies need to see from Scott Kingery at the plate to bring him back to the majors? Technical adjustments? Mental reset? And are you still a believer?
Keith Law: It’s a swing adjustment IMO. And maybe a mental reset but I can’t really speak to that from here – I do know his swing degraded first and the approach second. I am still a believer.

addoeh: So you recently tried Burmese cuisine.  What cuisine do you plan to try next or is the biggest missing cuisine in your culinary passport?
Keith Law: I’ve tried to work in one of the two (I think) Ghanaian places I’ve heard good things about in the Phoenix area on some trips out that way, but it’s never worked out for timing, and one of the places had a lot of beef on their menu that limited my options, but that springs to mind as something I’ve never had that would also probably open my mind to some new flavors.

Hinkie: Hello, Keith.  Looking forward to an updated draft prospect list.  Since your initial rankings, what players have done the most for their draft stock and what guys are going in the wrong direction (other than Jaden Hill)?
Keith Law: Next week will be the new list, probably 50 names this time. I wrote in this week’s draft notebook that Frelick and Henry Davis are probably top 5 picks now. Andrew Painter has picked it up after two really awful starts to open the year. Jud Fabian continues to flounder – I said he couldn’t hit the slider and opposing teams appear to have heard the same thing. James Wood might end up at Mississippi State at this point; I heard he was hitting just a shade above .200. Also something is clearly amiss with Dick Fitts. He’s gone from first-round starter to a reliever who can’t get anyone out.

Ben (MN): Have you heard anything in the industry along the lines of the “Paul Molitor and Co. stunted Buxton’s development” narrative? I always wondered at the time because Buxton seemed to go up swinging at absolutely everything in his early days with the Twins (even though he walked a lot in A Ball), but nobody in MN wanted to criticize Molitor, the local legend. Now, even the Twins tv announcers are saying that Molitor’s insistence that Buxton be aggressive and hit the ball on the ground stymied his development.
Keith Law: I haven’t heard that myself but it seems plausible, at least.

Michael: My favorite team/player had a great first week! Ha! I knew you were wrong with your opinions based on “data” and “scouting”.  I am vindicated! (By the way, I sometimes see the initials “SSS” in your chats – what does this mean?)
Keith Law: Joking aside, someone tried to tell me I was wrong about Ryan Mountcastle’s likely regression after Mountcastle got one hit on Opening Day. That’s a new record, I think.

Deke: How do you approach someone who is genuinely well-meaning but just patently wrong? Not in a Matt Walshian, bad-faith sense. Like today, the Senior Bowl’s Jim Nagy was pretty dismissive of the concept of racial bias in scouting QBs because NFL front offices only want to win, so they wouldn’t downgrade a guy just because he’s black, which is absurd on the face of it. How would you approach that without immediately putting him on the defensive?
Keith Law: I’m not sure you can do that without putting him on the defensive, but in my view the best response to that is data. Put him in a position where he has to say that he doesn’t believe the evidence in front of him.

Todd Boss: Kopech pitching in relief; would you have believed that the CWS wouldn’t have room for a 100-mph throwing strikeout machine starter?
Keith Law: I believe this is really a development strategy, both to build him back up to eventually start and help him build confidence as he continues to return after two years of not pitching.

Tom: Tyler Matzek for Atlanta. Failed starter but can he be a backend relief pitcher now?
Keith Law: Hasn’t he been that? Great story, too. I wonder how different his whole career might have been had another team taken him – getting more money in the draft came from high bonus demands that may have deterred teams from drafting him in the top ten.

Tom: Jon Grays fastball averaged about 92 last start. Any concern there?
Keith Law: I’d say I want to see at least 2 starts of reduced velocity before I’d be concerned, 3 before I panic.

Tom: Call Your Mother, my favorite dc breakfast place. glad you enjoyed it. If you like Georgian food, theres a place right across the street from CYM called Tabla. Highly recommend!
Keith Law: We went to a location of CYM in the suburbs but I can say I have never had Georgian food (assuming you mean the democracy-challenged country in the Caucusus, not the democracy-challenged US state in the Jim Crow belt).

JT: Long term, do you see too much swing and miss in Kjerstad’s complicated approach?
Keith Law: Without any adjustments, yes. I assume the Orioles will try at some point to make adjustments with him.

Jesse B: Is there something there with Yermin Mercedes?
Keith Law: A hell of a story.

Pat: So, about 2-3 weeks ago I was able to get the COVID vaccine even though technically not eligible. (Rural areas have too much supply, so I was able to finagle an appointment thru a contact). I felt guilty like I was “jumping the line”. Is that right or should it just be everyone get vaccinated as quickly as possible?
Keith Law: At this point, yes, everyone should get vaccinated as soon as they can.

HomerSomethingSomething: Do you think Garret Whitlock can stick in the Majors all year so he doesn’t have to be offered back to the Yankees? He’s looked good in Spring and in SSS this season.
Keith Law: Sure, as a two-pitch reliever with AA experience already, it’s not surprising he’d be MLB ready.

Pat: BTW, the joyous reaction of Akil Baddoo’s parents to his HR last weekend was one of the joys I’ve gotten so far this season. To watch your kid work for years & year (& for the parents to spend the $$ & drive him to all the practices/games/showcases) & get the payoff of him hitting a HR in his 1st MLB AB. It’s a lot of work & a long road, but, seeing your child succeed at the highest level in his chosen field has to be such an experience.
Keith Law: Especially in his case, where he hasn’t played since elbow surgery in May 2019.

Justin Y: Corbin Burnes has given up 2 hits in two starts, that cutter is devastating. He’s gonna be in the CY Young conversation isn’t he?
Keith Law: I said in September he might have been the best pitcher in the NL had he spent the whole year in the rotation and avoided the oblique strain he suffered, which cost him the innings he needed to make a real argument for the CYA. He’s a stud. Former #24 overall prospect in my rankings.

Mudville Nine: Hey Keith, really enjoyed Inside Game! I’m curious to know your thoughts on Russ Atkins 5 years extension with the Blue Jays. Obviously, Rogers ownership is happy with how Shapiro and Adkins manage their budgets but what do you think this tandem getting a guaranteed 5 years commitment to continue teambuilding?
Keith Law: Ehhh … I don’t think I have a strong feeling either way on this. This front office built a very strong farm system – about two years after they said they did – and that’s worthy of praise, but I also would like to see more on-field results in the majors.

HomerSomethingSomething: Mountcastle looked absolutely horrific on defense yesterday – probably cost the O’s 3 runs alone in that game. But hey, he hit a home run so that’s good, right?
Keith Law: I think he can be something if he’s just a 1b/dh who hits for power with a low OBP.

Jason S: If I said the Pirates have the worst assembled team of all time, and Dodgers have the best. How much of a reach is that?
Keith Law: You clearly didn’t see the 2003 Tigers.

Jesse The Body: Balazovic and Duran should be up at some point this year for the Twins, correct?
Erin: Is Simmons/Buxton the best defensive SS/CF combo in recent memory?
Keith Law: I would say yes on Duran, Balazovic maybe in September?
Keith Law: Good question, not a pair of positions we usually think of together, but that is probably true. Simmons is the best defensive SS post-Ozzie, and Buxton is probably the best defensive CF in baseball right now.

JT: Can we believe in Carlos Rodon again? I am not really a White Sox fan, but it’s hard to be against someone finally healthy and able to make good on unfulfilled promise.
Keith Law: I apologize for using the technical vernacular here, but his shit was ridiculous the other night. Averaging 95 again? 30 sliders with 8 whiffs in 11 swings and no balls hit fair? I just pulled up his K of Kyle Seager on 3 swinging strikes on sliders – two in the zone, one below it. Filthy.
Keith Law: I have NO idea if he can hold up, but this is basically the guy I saw at NC State as an underclassman.

Justin: Do you think the strategy of going under slot on a top pick in order to spend more later works?   Should the Pirates consider this or should they just not get cute, and take Leiter instead?
Keith Law: You have to take the right guys, both in the first round and then later. The Pirates should take Leiter, though. There isn’t a good second choice right now.

Aaron: Do you get any info from teams regarding players that are currently at the alternate sites? Are those open to scouts or media?
Keith Law: I did last year, but I’ve been draft-focused the last few weeks, and those alternate site guys will be out playing minor-league games soon enough. I know at least some are open to scouts/media but I don’t think all are.

Oz: How do you feel about the 7 inning doubleheader rule?  Atlanta and Washington played on Wednesday and I like the quicker games.
Keith Law: Hate it.

Mike: Hi Keith – thoughts on Rocker’s dip in velocity over his last few starts? A blip on the radar or more of a red flag?
Keith Law: I discussed that in my draft notebook this week.

Jason: Is it time to panic yet about Keston Hiura? He strikes out so much. I have hope but, maybe he needs a run in the minors?
Keith Law: That’s another guy who needs to restore an old swing (like Kingery). It’s frustrating to see a player who can hit, and did hit for several years in college and in the minors and even his first year in the majors, change an approach that worked.

Greg: If everyone can IMMEDIATELY see something was called wrong on replay, why do we have to sit there and be told something is “not reviewable”? Shouldn’t blatant and obvious errors be able to be remedied. It just feels like baseball being the stodgy old sport its detractors paint it as when they seem to be behind other sports in terms of technology, like replays.
Keith Law: That HBP should have been reviewable but they’d have to change the replay rules.

Cristian Javier: am I in the rotation the whole year? Can I be in contention for rookie of the year?
Keith Law: Yes, probably. No, because you’re not a rookie.

Beau: I realize we haven’t seen real games in over a year, but is Gore’s seeming lack of command/polish at this point in time concerning at all? (compared to absurdly high expectations)
Keith Law: No. call me when he’s pitching in real games.

Noah: Wife and I are both fully vaccinated, going to dinner tonight with another couple (one fully vaccinated, the other not and pregnant) at an indoor dining establishment with limited capacity.  Currently having an anxiety attack, is that wrong?
Keith Law: I mean, I don’t think you’re doing anything wrong. I don’t understand your pregnant friend’s decision-making here.

Sean: Thoughts on Ty France?  Was he not a prospect due to his limited defense?  He consistently has the best at-bats on the team, and hits the ball to all fields.  Is there something here?
Keith Law: Bench guy, but that’s probably it. No position and didn’t hit much in the minors until AAA El Paso (a good hitters’ park). Has value, though – could play a long time bouncing around as a bench piece who fills in at the corners (I don’t think 2b will really work).

Kevin: If Tatis misses a lot of time any chance Abrams will get the call up? The first part of this question made me cry.
Keith Law: I can’t imagine they would hold off all year on Abrams if Tatis does have to miss most of the season.

Tony: KLAW, I am having bad anxiety but not sure whether to go to a social counselor, psychiatrist,  or clinical psychologist.  No idea the difference neither. Any advice?
Keith Law: You want a clinical psychologist who uses evidence-based practices first.

Zack: Who do you like to make more of an impact in 2021 at/behind the plate, Tyler Stephenson or Alejandro Kirk?
Keith Law: Kirk but I like both guys.

James: How higher of a ceiling is the current Ryan Weathers who holds 96+ through multiple innings vs the previous Ryan Weathers who would bottom out at 89?
Keith Law: Well this version made my top 100 this winter and the last version did not. Difference between an above-average big league starter and a back-end guy at best.

Paul K.: Great review of Maglev Metro.  Have you played Lost Ruins of Arnak yet?  If not, it’s a lot of fun and plays well with two.
Keith Law: I have not – it’s on the long side, listed as 30-120 minutes, and even I as the biggest boardgamer in the house find my attention flags past about an hour and a half.

AnalyticsPlant: Is The Inside Game eminently more readable in hardcover or in paperback?
Keith Law: I’m speaking against my own self-interest but I prefer paperbacks. They’re just so much more portable.

Beej: As a scout, how do you evaluate bat speed with the naked eye when the difference between a quick bat and a slow bat may only be a few hundredths of a second?
Keith Law: I think it’s pretty easy to see the difference with experience.

Matt: How do we as a society deal with stupid people that have a major influence on others? Millions of morons believe Ted Nugent questioning why we don’t hear about Covid-1 to 18. You can look up how Covid-19 got its name in 3 seconds. Yet, a large group of Americans can’t be bothered to do so
Keith Law: Our public education system does not emphasize critical thinking … and plenty of right-wing nonprofits have been pushing for years to further deemphasize science and rational thought at all levels of education.

Zach: Word is Jonathan India has made big leaps behind the scenes the last two years. Did you hear the same, or is this all just small sample size?
Keith Law: I wrote about that in my top 100 this winter, which he was on.

Jeffrey: Gausman appears to be a much better pitcher with the Giants.  Is this a credit to their pitching coaches or an indictment of Baltimore’s?
Keith Law: An indictment of Buck Showalter and his staff. They couldn’t stop messing with Gausman’s placement on the rubber. They messed up Arrieta’s delivery, wouldn’t play or even speak to Hays when he first came up … Elias et al inherited so much more than just a bad major-league roster.

BenL: I know the plan is to use him as a high leverage reliever this year to build innings for potential starter role in the future, etc etc., but do you recall anyone w/ the injury history of Alex Reyes becoming a relatively healthy, successful starter?
Keith Law: No, and FTR I always questioned whether he’d hold up given his delivery. He just had such great stuff I couldn’t ignore it, but in hindsight I should have been more conservative when ranking him.

Jeff: Should I worry about Soroka’s shoulder inflammation that shut him down for two weeks?
Keith Law: Yes because it’s not his first bout.

Chris: If rocker needs surgery how far would he slide in the draft?
Keith Law: I’m not anywhere near the point of thinking he needs surgery.

Joe: Trout mentioned he’s adjusted his swing in the off-season and it seems to have paid off with a slightly hotter than normal start….would you agree?
Keith Law: Yes, I was really concerned about the huge deficiencies in his game going into 2021.

Zihuatanejo: “Why do we hear so much about Malcolm X, and *nothing* about Malcolms I-IX?”
Keith Law: OK, that’s funny.

Beej: Is it fair to put Shane Bieber in the same category as Paul Goldschmidt as mis-identified prospect? I recall (apologies if I’m incorrect) that you had him pegged as a 4-5 starter who could be HR-prone.
Keith Law: I wrote him up as a guy I got wrong. He picked up more than a full grade of velocity after college, which is rare.

Deke: Listening to Monday’s pod right now, and how much did it hurt your brain to read an ad for “read nonfiction books condensed to 15 minutes”?
Keith Law: I read a lot of ads for products I don’t personally use. It’s part of the job.

TJ: In terms of Mountcastle and the Orioles probably not contending this year, is it worth playing him in LF and seeing if theres any possible development or is it not worth the bad defense to even try him in left?
Keith Law: Can the answer be maybe? As in, sure, it’s not hurting their playoff chances, but also, is it clear yet that it’s not going to work? When should they stop and say it’s not helping him or their pitchers who end up losing outs to his defense?

Mike Trout: Not judging at all — curious what changed that you felt comfortable taking your trip before getting vaccinated? I see a lot of people, sadly imo, struggling to adjust even after getting vaccinated.
Keith Law: My trip to DC/Maryland? I didn’t have to fly, and we didn’t eat indoors at any point. We were really only inside when in our hotel room and in one store. I don’t think we did anything unsafe to others and we didn’t feel like we put ourselves at risk.
Keith Law: (My wife is vaccinated, so it’s just me, really.)

Mac: Is Kumar Rocker falling out of the top 5?
Keith Law: No. Could he, yes. Is he right now, no, I don’t think so. But he might be the 3rd pitcher taken today rather than the second (Hoglund).

JR: How much of a sample size will you want to see before determining if mlb really did modify the baseball?
Keith Law: Rob Arthur wrote yesterday or the day before that the ball is livelier than ever. I’ll defer to experts like him.

Mac: Who is the first college position player drafted?
Keith Law: Davis or Frelick.

Moe Mentum: Two celebrated contemporary novelists who do not appear on your Top 100 Novels list are Bret Easton Ellis and Jonathan Franzen. I know that just because a baseball prospect misses your Top 100 doesn’t mean he sucks, but curious about your opinions of these authors’ works? Considering either American Psycho or Freedom for my next read.
Keith Law: Didn’t like Franzen’s The Corrections. Never read anything else by him, or anything at all by Ellis.

Deke: This spring, most of the projection systems had Nick Madrigal forecast for 7, 8, 9 homers. Seems obviously ridiculous to me. Is that just a product of those systems not really knowing how to forecast someone with Madrigal’s profile? He’s such an outlier to the modern ballplayer that the projection systems just have to throw their hands up?
Keith Law: They’re not my systems, so that might be a better question for one of their developers, but I would guess that you’re right, although we have seen fewer than 7 HR in full seasons from batters recently – Yolmer Sanchez hit 2 in 2019 while qualifying for the batting title. Nobody has hit fewer than 2 while qualifying since 2014, though.

Appa Yip Yip: Are you buying what Julian Merryweather is selling?
Keith Law: In one-inning bursts, sure. Picked up about a grade of FB moving to relief.

Andy: The AS game decision was MLB taking some heat off of players/managers of whether or not they would participate. It’s one of the first actual items I can think of Manfred doing to help his players be marketed ahead of the game of baseball.
Keith Law: Howard Bryant reported that corporate sponsors really pushed MLB to move the game. I agree that it did help the players out, but it sounds like money talked first.

Mac: Has Mayer overtaken Lawler as the top prep position player?
Keith Law: No.

Jack: Are the A’s really this bad?
Keith Law: No, but I don’t think they’re a 95-win team underperforming, either.

Adam: I second the Tabla recommendation, or Supra, their first restaurant. You haven’t lived until you’ve tried khachapuri (basically a giant boat filled with cheese and a whole egg). My question: how is DeGrom doing it??? First start against the Phillies, he was sitting 98-101 and hit 102. If that’s his velocity now, maybe the Mets will finally win when he starts occassionally.
Keith Law: I have had a peinirli, the Greek equivalent, and yes, it’s great. (Supposedly brought to Greece by emigrants from the Caucasus.) As for deGrom, I don’t really know the answer. He’s an outlier of the best possible kind.

Jason: Do you think Josh Lindblom can be of service in MLB? I believe you’ve said as a reliever. I hope the brewers keep him in the pen.
Keith Law: Yes, in relief.

Mike: Best breakfast place in az
Keith Law: 1. Hillside Spot. 2. Crepe Bar 3. Matt’s Big Breakfast.

Creedreader (TJ): Vlad jr. was touted as the first prospect with a consensus 80 hit tool. Is this true in your estimation? What does it mean that Wander Franco is the next prospect with an 80 hit tool? Has this happened before but wasn’t known because of the presence of the internet or are these two prospects truly remarkable in this respect? Has there ever been a prospect with an 80 hit tool that has underperformed or not been a major league regular? Really interested in your take on this and any other thoughts you have on a prospect being rated 80 on that particular tool which seems more qualitative and important than all the others
Keith Law: It was not true, IMO, and I think subsequent events have borne that out, although to be clear I still expect great things from his bat.

Frank: How does Henry Davis compare to other top of the draft catchers in recent years like Bart and Rutschman?
Keith Law: Better than Bart, below Rutschman.

Matt: I’ve noticed since being vaccinated, I tend to laugh (behind my mask) when I see people that refuse to wear one. Like, if you want to ignore science, fine. But sooner or later, you will get got. Am I a dick?
Keith Law: The problem is that those people ignoring science will get other people got. And then we all lose.

Santaspirt: I wonder if all the anti-DH people realize that the DH is optional. So even if it’s universal, teams don’t have to use one. I mean if it’s truly the better option for the game, I’m sure all their favorite teams will choose not to employ it.
Keith Law: Fair point. Watch how fast those 15 NL teams run towards the DH when they can.

ajd: One of the things I’ve struggled with recently while reading sportswriting is how many journalists seem to be carrying water for teams or MLB in general. I realize this isn’t anything new, but it’s depressing. How do you, as someone who is inside the game, handle this stuff? Laugh it off? Ignore this? Or is it just not a big deal?
Keith Law: When appropriate, I try to provide a contrary and I hope more objective viewpoint, with evidence.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. A reminder that The Inside Game is indeed now out in paperback, and you can buy it anywhere you like – Midtown Scholar has many signed copies available right now. Thank you all for reading, and, for those of you who’ve already bought the book, thank you as well.

Klawchat 4/1/21.

My predictions for 2021 are now up for for The Athletic subscribers.

My second book, The Inside Game, comes out in paperback on April 6th. Next Wednesday, April 7th, I’ll be appearing in a live, virtual event with fellow author Will Leitch through Harrisburg’s Midtown Scholar bookstore. Your ticket purchase also gets you a personalized, signed copy of my book.

Keith Law: It hits like a hammer when I’m that to someone else. Klawchat.

HomerSomethingSomething: Just finished The Inside Game – great work! Jarren Duran looks like he’s made serious strides at the plate since 2019 but his routes and reads have been awful this Spring. Do you think he can stick in CF or does he end up a corner guy?
Keith Law: I do believe in the swing changes, but wouldn’t judge any fielder too much based on spring training. He’s certainly athletic and fast enough to handle CF. (I haven’t seen any of his fielding misadventures, though.)

Andy: What are the odds Bo Naylor stays at C for the Indians as he moves up the minor league ladder?
Keith Law: At this point, probably around even money, with a better chance that they move him to get his bat in the lineup more than that they move him for defensive reasons.

Todd Boss: Carter Kieboom question; he just had a very public 2021 Spring Training audition failure.  He’s only 23 … but something feels like he’s at a serious cross roads in his career right now.  Does he need a change of scenery?
Keith Law: He might. Maybe just going to AAA and playing 2b exclusively would help? That said, I was always kind of the low man on his bat. I didn’t see this potential 60 hit tool, not in his bat speed and not in his overall approach.

Andy: If Chris Rodriguez can stay healthy does he have the stuff to be a legit #2 SP down the road?
Keith Law: Yes, but he’s never stayed healthy, and they took my 1000-to-1 bet from a few weeks ago against him appearing in the majors … which I said would be a stupid move at the time. I stand by that: He’s thrown 9 innings in 3 years, nothing above A-ball. How do you manage his workload this year, on a club that wants to contend, while also setting him up to return to starting in 2022? Have they closed the door on him as a starter in the long term?

Will: Keith, what are your expectations for Pache this year? Is a 250/320/400 slash line crazy?
Keith Law: I’d expect more like a .250/.290/.440 kind of line, with a lot of HR but that low OBP.

G: I know you had Ke’Bryan Hayes as the most deserving player for ROY last year, and he’s still eligible this year as he hasn’t yet hit his Rookie eligibility requirement. So my question is: Is it possible for a player to win ROY twice?
Keith Law: It is not. Last year’s winners are ineligible this year by rule. I remain a huge Hayes fan but his lack of any voter support last year has further convinced me that there are enough voters who just don’t take voting seriously, and that someone like Hayes, who is one of the best defensive 3b in baseball right now, is at a disadvantage in awards voting because he’ll produce value in ways lazy voters just don’t recognize.

Todd Boss: Props to CWS for not playing service time games with Vaughn and naming him to opening day.  What are his chances of holding his own given limited minor league ABs?
Keith Law: I wonder if he’ll end up a high BB high K guy right now, because he was always dancing on the edge of being passive. That could be a reaction if he’s overmatched by big league pitching. I hope that’s wrong.

Andy: Could Lacy open in the Royals rotation in 2022 or is that too optimistic a timeline given the lost development time last year?
Keith Law: Very reasonable.

Josh: Is there anything in Vaughn’s athletic makeup that suggests he can play LF every day at an acceptable level?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I wouldn’t rule it out.

Andy: Does Tanajh Thomas have a future as a starter or does he profile more as a power RP?
Keith Law: Reliever.

Will: Keith, thoughts on Sean Newcomb in the bullpen? At 26, is he done as a starter?
Keith Law: Yes. Can’t see how he can improve his delivery to throw more strikes.

Eric: Overall thoughts on the Lindor extension? I think fair for both sides.
Keith Law: He would have gotten more on the open market, I think, but I can’t criticize him for taking this deal. Of the four SS headed for free agency this winter (including him), I think he might have been the best bet for a long-term deal. Better SS now than Correa or Seager, more likely to stay there, and better hitter than Story.

Andy: Manoah really opened some eyes this spring.  Is it feasible to project a late call up this year if things go well in the minors or is that too aggressive given his lack of minor league IP?
Keith Law: Reasonable, if they manage his innings to leave something in the tank for August/September.

Champdo: How good do you think Willi Castro could be at his peak?
Keith Law: Everyday player.

Andy: Why do you hate my team? Every national expert must pick my team to be the class of the league. Every player is in the best shape of their life. Every prospect is the next big thing. Clearly, you are the issue for not seeing this.
Keith Law: What never fails to surprise me is how none of the people whining about purported “bias” against their favorite teams realize that fans of every team say the same thing.

Ted: Hi Keith – providing that he stays healthy, can AJ Puk become a GUY with less velocity (93-94), but with better command? The reports from spring suggest that his velocity has gone down a bit, while he’s working on his command. Thanks.
Keith Law: I heard that directly from a scout – Alex Coffey had a great article where she used that quote from me – and I think he can still be a GUY, but he has to show he can stay healthy, which he also has not done.

Todd Boss: Seth Romero, your favorite Nats malcontent 1st round draftee, is on 40-man and did not log a single pitch in spring training despite no injury report.  What can we glean from this information as Nats fans?
Keith Law: “Undisclosed injury.” Uh-huh. Color me shocked.

Jason: Why is Andrew Cuomo still Governor of NY?
Keith Law: I’m really not sure. He should have been gone weeks ago.
Keith Law: I also don’t know if there’s a legal route to removing him right now, though.

Khalid: Is Tyler Soderstrom’s bat good enough that he can retain his value as a prospect even if he was moved off C to either 3B or LF?
Keith Law: Yes. I wrote about that in the offseason – he’s not a C, he is a prospect.

Kevin: Your thoughts on Luis Garcia. I thought I remembered that you like him.
Keith Law: The Astros’ starter, yes.

Kyle: Do you have insight on how beneficial it is to the bookstore to buy a popular book from a wealthy author? For example, Obama’s new memoir is $45 at my local store, $24 at Amazon. I like to support the local store but that’s a big difference for an already wealthy author.
Keith Law: I believe the bulk of that difference goes to the store, although I also believe that amazon buys their books from publishers at a lower rate than local stores do.

Anthony: I’m always blocked out of Meadowparty on mobile (sending this question from my laptop). Do you know if there’s any way around this so I can access your chats/movie reviews from my phone?
Keith Law: That issue should be resolved – might need to clear your cache – but it will work on Wifi. The issue was related to some site security software Hostgator told me I needed, but it turned out I didn’t need it and it caused problems with users on some mobile networks.

Jason: are you high on Garrett Mitchell?
Keith Law: He was on my top 100. I don’t know if that makes me high on him or not, but I ranked him higher than his draft position last year.

Michael: Tyler O’Neill reportedly worked on and had a great spring as far as a significantly better approach at the plate. If he can really translate that to regular season what kind of player do you think he could be?
Keith Law: I won’t buy that at all until I see it. His whole swing and approach were geared to pull the ball. That’s no small fix.

Jib: Justin Williams starting in RF for the Cardinals today. How do you like his chances to keep that spot?
Keith Law: I really hope he gets an extended shot. He can do enough of everything to be a soft regular in a corner, maybe not right now, but in time.

Hank: I noticed you tweeted that the baseball fan in you was happy that Kirk made the Jays. What players are your favourites purely as a fan, regardless of how good they might be?
Keith Law: Stroman. Roman Quinn. Dom Smith. Lindor. Javy Baez. Tatis Jr., of course. Quite a few, really – I just don’t go overboard in talking about them because I don’t want people to find bias where none exists.

Max: Keith, sell me on Drew Waters as a future star in CF?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s even a regular.

Guest: Thanks for doing these chats, sir. The indie (sic) league team I follow just signed Anfernee Grier, a former #1 pick by Arizona. His career has been a tire fire–was he seen at the time as a bad pick?
Keith Law: Yes, or at least as high-risk medium-reward. Hit well his junior spring until conference play started, and then he cratered. Never did learn to pick up breaking stuff.
Keith Law: I took too long to mute the announcers. Must still be spring training for me too.

Jason: So do the Mariners keep Kelenic down a few extra days or weeks past the service time marker to create a plausible defense to the claim he’ll make?  Players never win those arguments, but there usually isn’t an exec on tape admitting to the plan.
Keith Law: Maybe? I have a feeling we’ll see him sooner because they’re aware the league, his agent, and even their fans are watching.

wrburgess: Does Justus Sheffield show enough improvement this season to meet the potential you saw previously?
Keith Law: Not sure he’s ever going to be hitting 97 with a plus slider like I saw from him in the AFL, but I think he’ll be league-average this year.

Chris: Kinda feel like the Mets should’ve traded Dom Smith for some pitching? With no DH this year he’s gonna struggle to see the field (he’s unplayable in LF IMO)
Keith Law: I have thought that for a while, but I also think they were betting on a DH this year, and they don’t want to deal a guy who has turned out to be one of the most popular players on the team. I can’t completely fault them for either.

Your fellow citizens: What are your thoughts on folks thinking Covid is almost over?   Sad to see so many selfish people ruining what could be a strong recovery and good health for everyone!  Everyone, please still wear your damn mask!
Keith Law: It was inevitable. States opening back up too quickly has led to complacency, and that’s leading to new waves of cases. Good job, everyone.

Dave: Hi Klaw. Thanks for the chats. Enjoyed the Inside Game. Are you planning a third book? Between Casas, Downs, Duran and Jimenez who has the highest ceiling and who in your opinion is the most likely to reach their ceiling?
Keith Law: Kicking around an idea for a non-baseball non-fiction book. Jimenez has the highest ceiling, but he’s not ranked first in their system, because I don’t think he has the probability of the other guys.

Appa Yip Yip: Did you see anything different on what Manoah was doing this spring compared to when last you saw him?
Keith Law: No but the TV angle doesn’t show me everything and if he’s changed something minor I might have missed it.

JJ: If Bobby Dalbec plays 140+ games this year, can he surpass Mark Reynolds’ single season record of 223 strikeouts for the season?  I get that I’m not supposed to care about contact any more, but it’s getting ridiculous.  Boring, and ridiculous.
Keith Law: Yes, he could.

Josh: Will the owners feel even a hint of shame when they cry austerity & lock out players after a season where two shortstops were guaranteed 681 million dollars?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. They have no shame.

Kevin: Any college coaches thank you for pointing out how to get Jud Fabian out?
Keith Law: 50% strikeout rate in SEC play. His defenders on Twitter have gotten awfully quiet.

section 34: Keith, isn’t “service time manipulation” really just good business practice?
Keith Law: Yes, if your entire goal is profit maximization.

mike t: Is it possible for pitchers with relatively straight fastballs to add movement? I’m thinking about Mitch Keller in particular
Keith Law: I know teams that believe this is possible through pitch design, altering grips and seam placement. I think we’re still seeing the results of these experiments, and whether pitchers can do that without losing too much command. (I think some will. It’s good progress.)

Adam: Considering the layoff between actual games, should we be really excited by how *good* certain prospects like Bobby Witt and CJ Abrams have looked so far this Spring?
Keith Law: No. I mean, you can be excited, but don’t let it change your rational opinions of those players.

Adam: Considering the late bloom of his career, how dominant does Jacob DeGrom need to be for how long to make a serious Hall of Fame case for himself? Does one more Cy Young award get him there?
Keith Law: I think it’s going to be really hard for him. He’ll have to stay healthy well into his 30s and keep working as a starter, or his bulk numbers are going to pale next to other starters in the Hall (where the standards for SP haven’t changed enough to reflect changing usage patterns).

TomBruno23: Reminder of the time Gregg Jefferies received ROY votes in 1988 and 1989.
Keith Law: Can’t miss!

Dr. Bob: I’m not a big pomp and circumstance guy in any situation, but I make two exceptions: Opening Day and Game 1 of the World Series. Give me all the hoopla along with the game. Baseball is back, baby.
Keith Law: My excitement is a little tempered by the state of the world, but yes, it is very, very good to have baseball back.

Ben (MN): My opening day meal tradition is Kramarczuk’s Brats (sold at Target Field) with onions and saurkraut. It just makes me feel like baseball is finally here. What’s your favorite stadium/baseball meal?
Keith Law: I almost never eat at ballparks, sorry.

Jose: Your thought on Nats prospects Israel Pineda. Thanks.
Keith Law: He’s #14 on my Nationals prospect rankings.

Coach: Do you think Hoerner is going to hit?
Keith Law: I do, enough for him to be an everyday guy, but not enough to be a star.

Nick: I think you’ve read most of David Mitchell at this point. What was your favorite? I think mine is still Cloud Atlas.
Keith Law: I’ve read 5/8 and would agree, but I know people who love Black Swan Green.

Mac: Who do you think will be the third college pitcher off the board?
Keith Law: Gunnar Hoglund.

Chris: Gleyber let a reachable one get by him, time for the “he cant play short!” rants to begin.  Joking aside, what will they do with DJ signed for 6 yrs and Gio ensconsed at 3B if Glevber cant, in fact, play short, esp with the big group coming up as FA?
Keith Law: They’ll sign one of those FA and trade Gleyber, or move him to third and trade Gio. I can’t see them letting either of those guys stop them from signing a premium free agent.

TomBruno23: Watched Christian Little at all? I know Vandy has some other big names on the staff, but wondering your thoughts on a kid who in a normal world would be a senior at CBC High School in St. Louis instead of pitching mid-week for the #1 team in the country.
Keith Law: I have not, but I can’t emphasize enough what an incredibly bad idea it is for high school players to matriculate early in college and skip the draft entirely. This is coaches trying to make an end run around MLB teams, and the big losers are the players, who miss out on an opportunity for MLB teams to offer them a lot of money that they can still, if they choose, decline to accept.

Ben: New to your chats, thank you. Why do virtually all prospects with 70-80 power have a propensity to strike out so often?
Keith Law: When you swing that hard, you’re going to miss a lot.

Joe: When will the Blue Jays realize Danny Jansen isn’t that good and unleash Alejandro Kirk to his full potential?
Keith Law: Give them time. I’m sure they’re still wondering how much to buy Kirk’s bat since he had no time above A-ball before last fall.

elGuapo: What would you do with Aquino now that he’s out of options? Can he be a regular (.800+ OPS in ML and AAA)? Or is he just a high K guy the Reds seem to hate for good reason.
Keith Law: I’d waive him. He’s not an .800 OPS guy (or a 100 wRC+ guy) going forward.

Kevin: Given the short shelf life that catchers have, if you were Baltimore would you even have Adley catch another inning in the minors considering his D is already major league good?
Keith Law: They’re going to be so bad this year that I’m not sure there’s a real benefit to rushing him now. Maybe midyear? He’d be two years past his draft day anyway.

Grover: Have you given up on Willie Calhoun?
Keith Law: I was never a huge believer. He has no position and I don’t think the bat plays at DH.

Chris: It took til the 2nd batter of the season for the announcers to mention Cole’s salary.  Funny how they never mention an owner’s net worth.
Keith Law: They know who pays their salaries.

Mike: Ignoring the lost income angle, it is bad developmentally for position players to choose college over starting a professional career?
Keith Law: That will depend on the player. Some guys really do need college, or will make more money after playing at a good D1 program. Anthony Rendon wasn’t a top ten kind of player out of high school, but he might have gone 1-1 if he hadn’t hurt his shoulder his junior year at Rice.
Keith Law: Some is development, some is just seeing a guy regularly against better competition.

Kevin: Gore seems to still be having some command trouble. Any concern?
Keith Law: It was 11 innings. No.

Todd Boss: Speaking of kids who graduated early to run off to college: Nate Savino and UVA.  He was 1st round talent projected as a rising HS senior … now he’s UVA’s mid-week starter?  If he was that good … how is he unable to beat out middling upperclassmen starters who are currently leading UVA to a losing record?  Was he over-rated coming out of HS?  Has he regressed?
Keith Law: I didn’t see him on Saturday, but I don’t think he’s regressed as badly as Mike Vasil, who might have lost $2 million by telling teams not to draft him.

section 34: Keith, on “service time manipulation” — it seems to me that smart teams would do it not just to maximize profits (though that’s also a benefit), but to keep players for an extra full season. Not every team is the Dodgers or Mets and can afford to pay the market-rate salary of a superstar player. Do you disagree?
Keith Law: Yes, I do. Sending guys to the minors who don’t need to go there stops their development. It might cost you a win or more in the majors that year. And it’s always based on the assumption that you know what a player will be worth six or seven years into the future. Any such projections should have enormous error bars around them, at the least.

Nitelight62: I think a 14 year Major League career qualifies as not missing…..
Keith Law: Jefferies was supposed to be the best prospect in baseball, or close to it, and he was done as a regular at age 27, with 19 career WAR.

danaez: You seem to balance a wide variety of interests in addition to your family and professional lives. Are you just naturally good at compartmentalizing? I struggle with it and too often end up not getting much done because I’m overwhelmed/distracted.
Keith Law: I do compartmentalize, but I’m also fortunate in that I can integrate family and some of those interests – my wife is just as avid a movie fan (and Oscar completist) as I am. She and my daughter both enjoy board games and I think my stepdaughters are headed that way (I concede some possible influence in that department). My wife has also encourage to try or re-try activities I didn’t think I’d enjoy, like skiing or running. So a lot of those outside interests become family activities too.

Merrick: Hi Keith! Was fun seeing Andre Jackson and Michael Grove throw back-to-back innings recently after learning about them from your Dodgers list. Both appear to have exciting stuff. Do you think either might be a bullpen candidate in October?
Keith Law: Grove more likely. Jackson I think is further away from MLB-ready.

Michael: Cardinals are batting Goldschmidt 2nd, Arenado 3rd, Dejong 4th and Carlson 7th today. Maybe I’m wrong but the line up seems a lot better moving Carlson into the 2nd spot to give a guy who looks like he will get on base a good amount and hit with some power in front of Goldschmidt and Arenado. What do you think?
Keith Law: Probably Shildt being conservative with Carlson, who was way better in September in a very small sample. If Carlson is a good OBP guy this year, why not lead him off?

Mike: Hasnt Vasil been pretty good for UVA?  What happened to him to kill his draft stock?
Keith Law: Results are fine, stuff has not been what it was in HS.

HashtagSSS: Find any good coffee places in Charlottesville last weekend?
Keith Law: I drove down and back in one day. Moe’s BBQ has amazing collard greens, though.

Jeff: Thanks for the chats Keith. Any thoughts on moving the pitchers mound back to help the hitters a bit?
Keith Law: I don’t like the idea of changing field dimensions unless they’ve already tried changing more mutable things like the strike zone.

Andy 2: How much are the Cubs going to enjoy the last season of Kris Bryant? 6 years ago this wasn’t the plan for what they would be with his extra season.
Keith Law: Right, but they manipulated his service time as if they were sure they’d be contenders in 2021 and he’d still be a star.

Allen: Thoughts on Sonny Gray’s next few years? Can he be a #2 starter for a while? Better?
Keith Law: I’ll go with above-average starter but not an ace (top 20 or so in baseball).

devilinlaw: Who’s excited to watch the pitcher bat again in the NL?
Keith Law: Nobody!

Jay: How will the Pirates screw up the 1st pick? Take Del Castillo because he’d likely take less and they need MiLB C depth?
Keith Law: I think Leiter’s the most likely guy right now, but if they went college bat, I feel like Davis would be more likely. Taking the next-best guy can be a viable strategy if you get the right overpays later.

Jay: @devilinlaw Who’s excited to see Catchers hit? Nobody
Keith Law: In 2019, catchers hit .238/.309/.408, and pitchers hit .128/.159/.163. This is a stupid “point” and people need to stop making it, because it is stupid and annoying and wastes everyone’s time.
Keith Law: If pitchers hit like catchers, there would be no calls for DHs, and pitchers would win MVP awards all the time.

Trevor: Looked like Miami (OH)’s Bachman missed a few weeks, not sure if it was injury related or not, but then came back two starts later and struck out all 9 batters he faced. Looking forward to your draft prospect list update
Keith Law: Injury, yes, supposedly has come back fine. Top half of the first round stuff.

Guest: What are you thoughts on Amed Rosario playing CF in Cleveland and will they be able to get more production out of his tools than the Mets?
Keith Law: I’d really like to see him get a long trial there in the minors first. Don’t move a SS to CF in the majors and expect him to take to it immediately.

Jesus: Dom Smith huge year ?
Keith Law: I’ve been a believer since he was drafted. He can hit, and he has real power.

Pete: I’m excited about Alejandro Kirk. Who’s bat would you rather have for the next 5-10 years, his or Will Smith’s?
Keith Law: I would gladly take either. I feel better about a 10-year projection for Smith than for Kirk, though.

mike t: Regarding Pirates, wasn’t the problem with the previous regime more that they underdeveloped the talent they had, rather than drafting lesser players i  order to sign them for less? Either way,, the jury is still out on Cherington
Keith Law: Yes, I agree with that. They had some head-scratchers in the draft (Will Craig?), but also had some really good picks that didn’t work out as expected or are still TBD.

JR: Getting my vaccine next week. Excited to see games in person this year. #fyeahbaseball
Keith Law: I’m eligible to sign up on Tuesday, so I’m hoping that means I’ll be able to get on a plane before the end of the month. Everyone who can get vaccinated should get vaccinated, not just for yourself, but for your community.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for all of your questions. The Inside Game is out in paperback on Tuesday. Here’s hoping I can sign your copies some time this year!

Klawchat 3/26/21.

I have another new board game review up at Paste, looking at Renature, the newest collaboration from Wolfgang Kramer and Michael Kiesling, two designers whose games I’ve liked when they work on their own but whose joint efforts have left me cold – until this one.

Keith Law: Pay attention, it’s not hard to decipher. Klawchat.

Ifickey: Did you get a chance to scout Nick Bitsko? If he wouldn’t have reclassified, where would he rank in this upcoming draft?
Keith Law: Never seen him. His season hadn’t started last spring when the world ended. He’d be in the same range, late first round, this year, but given the shoulder surgery he should be very glad he reclassified and signed when he did.

TomBruno23: Jack Leiter, 124 pitches…managerial malfeasance?
Keith Law: No, but pointless. He’s got a $6-8 million payday in less than four months. There’s no good reason to push him just so in 20 years he can say he threw a no-hitter in a mid-season SEC game.

Guest: Any hope for Luis Urias or has that ship sailed? Looks like neither the bat or OBP skills have shown up with him thus far in Milwaukee.
Keith Law: I don’t give up on guys with a history of hitting in the minors that quickly.

Jon: Is Corbin Martin a top-60 (give or take) pitcher this season? Is that expecting too much too soon?
Keith Law: I’m a big fan but since he is still just coming back from TJ that feels like a very optimistic projection.

Bryan: Dylan Cease’s BB problems have never seen to go anywhere. Can he be a competent starter at 4.5-5 BB/9? What is the ceiling if he gets it to 3 or so?
Keith Law: Potential #2 starter if he gets to average control, but can he get there when hitters hit his fastball as well and as hard as they do?

Pete: With the glutton of Braves pitching, do you see Bryse Wilson or Touki Toussaint making an impact this season or beyond, starting or out of the pen? Or will it have to be with another team if Atlanta won’t give them some run?
Keith Law: I assumed after they optioned Wright that Wilson would be in the rotation. Touki really has to work out of the pen for now and earn a rotation spot by throwing more strikes. It’s premium stuff, maybe ace stuff, but he has to be able to get it in the zone consistently.

Scott: Any good plan for Taylor Trammell this season? Just stick him in LF and see how it goes?
Keith Law: I’d start him in AAA. It’s become clear in the last year or so that his bat just isn’t as advanced as we (me, analysts, some scouts) thought it was. I do know one pro scout who was always a skeptic, though. Thought he was too passive in A-ball and wouldn’t hit better pitching.

Kevin: Could Brandon Marsh go .275/.350/.450 with 500 ABs this year? 15+ HR/SB?
Keith Law: I might take the under on the OBP for his rookie season.

Rod: I know to not read into ST stats too much but the Pirates look…..good? And Keller, the supposed ace, is the worst performing pitcher thus far. 1) What are the expectations for him – will he eventually be pushed into a relief role? 2) Obviously Adam Frazier and Kevin Newman aren’t going to hit .500 but the bat-to-ball skills seem elite. Frazier worth anything in a trade? Would you look to move Newman with a hot start or is he one of the guys you can start building around with Hayes, maybe Reynolds too?
Keith Law: The Pirates are not good. Let me disabuse you of that notion up front. They’re one of the two worst teams in the NL, even with some interesting guys. Keller has to find a weapon to get lefties out. He can kill RHB with the FB/CB but without a viable option for LHP he’ll never get close to his potential – I would argue his arsenal right now does not keep him in the rotation. I’ve long been a Newman fan, but he and Frazier may have too similar skill sets to both have roles here going forward.

Dan: I know you listed Gregory Polanco in the breakouts section…but what is a breakout for him? Is it All-Star level? A 2 win season? The tools are just gross if he could do the health thing.
Keith Law: I’m saying a 4-5 win season. 2 WAR would not be a breakout for him, or really anyone. If I think a player is going to break out, I am definitely hoping for more than 2 WAR.

Dan: The starts have been unreal for both Paxton and Robbie Ray – are they reclamation projects that you believe will be reclaimed for lack of a better word?
Keith Law: Both are good gambles, but spring training isn’t telling us anything.

Leo: Are velocities something that we can look for in Spring Training to be useful? It seems like Charlie Morton and Patrick Corbin both have regained a bit on the fastball, should that point towards better success than last year for both?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s one thing I think is potentially useful – a significant change in velocity in either direction. Corey Kluber struggling to hit 90 is a real problem. Dellin Betances did that two years ago and it was a sign he was hurt.

Greg: Any legitimate plan for Garrett Richards this year? Just throw him ’til his arm falls off?
Keith Law: I’m fairly sure the Red Sox have a plan, and that that’s not it.

Adam: I know you’re not a fantasy player, but each year it seems there is a guy drafted in 10th round or later that returns 1st round value. Nick Senzel a qualifier for you? He looks sharp already. Anyone else that you think could fit the profile?
Keith Law: He was a breakout candidate for me in 2020 but then came down with COVID-19 and wasn’t the same when he came back. I’m a believer, though.

Harrisburg Hal: As a fan, what is the best way to pressure MLB to move ASG in light of GA voting restrictions?
Keith Law: I doubt fans can move the needle in any way here, but I had a thought this morning: What if Black MLB players all declined invitations to play in the All-Star Game? Or announced now that they would boycott? The last thing MLB wants is that kind of publicity, not this year, not when they’re supposedly making a big push for DEI across the game.

Andy: Are the Reds kidding themselves trying Suarez at SS?
Keith Law: I mean, he was a shortstop once, and was actually a decent one. It might be a better option than anything else they have on hand.

Rick: Thanks Keith for all your work outside of baseball. Do have a baseball question though. Do you think Chisholm and/or Rodgers will eventually make it to allstar caliber players or just too many warts?
Keith Law: I’m all in on Jazz. Rodgers has two main obstacles: He can’t stay healthy, and he’s not selective enough at the plate. The latter could be improved. The former, though … well, he’s hurt again, and now losing more playing time he needs.

Michael: Hey Keith – not a prospect question, but we are hearing a lot from local media here in Philly about this being a huge Zach Eflin breakout season.  Should I buy the hype?  Have you seen anything that would indicate he is anything more that a potentially solid #3?
Keith Law: I think a solid #3 is about what he can be. The Phillies messed with his repertoire a bit, but I don’t think he ever had a higher ceiling than that, not without some significant change in his arsenal.

Kevin: Blink twice if you need help from someone forcing you to read the “mushroom coffee” ads on your podcast. I thought you pushed back at ESPN about an ad read (many moons ago), and figured fake coffee would have fit that same criteria. Either way, love the pod and thanks for the chats!
Keith Law: I have declined a couple of ads, and I often omit words from copy if I think they’re untrue or too pseudosciencey. That mushroom coffee is actually real coffee with some mushroom powder mixed in. They sent me a bag. I don’t like it.

Isaac: No one was “low” on Bobby Witt, but may we be underrating his potential? Only see his highlights, that swing gets through the zone awfully fast and mixed with that angle, it looks an awful lot like the man in Anaheim. Could Witt be a generational talent type?
Keith Law: I appreciate you prefacing that by saying no one was low on him … everyone’s got him rated pretty highly, especially for a guy who’s nearly 21 and has barely played. Even this winter I had execs from other clubs saying they weren’t sure about his hit tool, and while I know he’s been the flavor of the month, it’s still spring training and the hype is out of proportion. I don’t think he’s anything like the man in Anaheim – Trout was over a year younger on draft day, and at Witt’s age Trout was already the best player in baseball.

Freddie: Is CJ Abrams a potential #1 overall prospect, he seems to check off more boxes every time I blink
Keith Law: He checked off two more while you asked that question. And the answer is yes.

Fred: Do you still view Mize as a top of the rotation type? Seems like he gained a few ticks on his velocity. Is it just experience he needs, or is there another reason he seems to get hit harder than you’d expect considering his apparent raw stuff
Keith Law: I do still view that as his ceiling. He has to either miss more bats with his fastball or pitch with it less.

Scott: Do the A’s stay in Oakland?
Keith Law: Inertia says yes. Economics says no.

Ahammer: Is B.Doyle a legit prospect in Colorado? I have friends that are constantly hyping him, but I need more considering his age and level, or more from someone that knows what they’re talking about. These friends..don’t have the best track record, lol
Keith Law: Yes he’s legit but he really needs to play. He’s 23 with almost no pro experience and he played D2 ball in college, so we really have no idea if he can hit.

IF-land: Hi Keith, you seemed to hold up pretty well this last year, as many of us that battle mental health have had a rough year (not assuming you haven’t, but your writing has been great all year). Personally, I can’t wait for Baseball, getting to ball games will seem like a break from the mundane. Have you got out to games in person yet, last I recall your last game was scouting Veen. Hope your spring allows you to get out to games as we all enjoy your write ups
Keith Law: Thank you. I’m supposed to drive down to UVA tomorrow to see Miami and Adrian Del Castillo, which, as you remembered, will be my first game since Veen. It’s been about 54 weeks. I feel like I’m about to fly to Mars.

Sowers: Cleveland has seem to unlock the secret to develop pitchers that don’t seem to have the highest pedigree. Who would you think increases their value most in their system between Espino, Hankins, wolf, burns or the allens.  Is there a type of pitcher the develop better? Seems like burns falls more in line with the pleasac, Bieber mold
Keith Law: Espino if he stays healthy. Burns if you think Espino won’t do so.

H.cows: If Adley Rutschman was a RF, Would he still be viewed as a top 25 prospect? Is the bat good enough that it would play anywhere, or is it just that good in comparison to others at his position and stage?
Keith Law: Top 50 for sure. Top 25 might depend on the year.

Isaac: With Gimenez looking locked into the SS role in cleveland, who do you see ad the 2B in say 2023-24, seems like they have a ton of players that are pretty similar up the middle
Keith Law: I don’t think Gimenez is good enough to block their parade of SS prospects.

Rick: Apparently Kimbrel hasn’t been looking too good in Spring Training.  He hasn’t looked good since leaving Boston except for a short run at the end of last season.  He still has good stuff, but he’s reminding me of a former Cubs Closer Marmol who was all over the place. Think Kimbrel keeps the closing job or does he end up getting cut mid-season? Thanks
Keith Law: There’s a more likely option in the middle, where they keep him but he’s no longer the closer. The unavoidable truth is that closers – relievers of any sort, really – don’t last. Kimbrel held his peak longer than most.

KIL-cle: Because of the shortened season last year, should we be expecting a noticeable uptick in injuries to position players ad well as pitchers, in your opinion.
Keith Law: I wrote about that this week. I don’t know the answer – no one does – but I have an opinion, at least.

KIL-cle: Amed Rosario had a nightmare game in CF last week, but it was his 1st ever game there. Could be be an ultimate utility type for Cleveland, or would moving him maybe benefit both sides in this case?
Keith Law: As long as they just pick a position and leave him there, I think he’ll be fine. Moving him all over the place when he has no experience doing so wouldn’t help his bat.

Kevin: I know spring training stats dont matter, and last year for Dalbec was a SSS with 8 HR in 80 ABs, but realistically do you think he could hit 35-40 HR playing a full season this year?
Keith Law: I don’t. He’s going to swing and miss too much fort hat.

Jon: RIP Larry McMurtry.  Favorite novel of his?  I love The Last Picture Show.  The movie version is outstanding and might be better than the novel.  One of the great casts of all time.
Keith Law: I’ve only read Lonesome Dove, which was incredible despite its length.

Herb: It seems like many of the rules they are experimenting with in the minors seem geared to helping the running game, is that something you would like to see increase. Personally, I love going to games in the 90s and seeing Kenny Lofton get on 1st. A stolen base got the crowd going seemingly as much as anything. I think it shows the game within the game that the crowd really feeds on.
Keith Law: I do miss the running games of the ’80s and the race for 100 SBs. I think they’re exciting, but as many folks have written, they’re not a great strategy when the cost of a CS is so high.

Tony: It looks like the Marlins are going to have a pretty interesting rotation. I know your prospect rankings discussed Sanchez/Cabrera, but looking at the rotation as a whole how do you feel about those players and how to compare to each other regarding floor/ceiling?
Keith Law: I mentioned Rogers in my breakouts piece, even though I almost never include rookies, because he’s got a new slider that gives him a much higher ceiling than he had previously as a FB/CH guy with a 40 breaking ball. I don’t think the Marlins are going to see .500 this year but they’ll be the most interesting they’ve been in a decade.

Tony: If the draft were today, what would you estimate Jud Fabian’s range to be? Mid first to early second?
Keith Law: Late first to mid second, and dropping.

Wolf: Should transgender girls be able to win college scholarships in women’s sports?
Keith Law: Trans women are women.

Brent: Klaw, any idea who will fill in for Eloy in LF? I’d love for it to be Wild Thing Vaughn, but I’m a realist. Engel’s hurt too. Do you sign someone, just play 8…thanks
Keith Law: I worry about putting Vaughn in left when (as far as I know) he’s never played the OF. He might be Ryan Klesko out there. Maybe he gets hurt, maybe it impacts his bat. It’s not worth that risk.

Dungeon Master: Do you think the Mariners should go hard for one or two of the top free agents next year, especially a SS? Seems like with Kelenic, JRod, Haniger, Lewis, a bunch of solid role players, and the big 3 SP prospects they’re not far away from a pretty good team in a weakening AL West
Keith Law: I agree. Next winter is probably the beginning of the window where they should spend big to compete.

Mike: Not putting a ton of stock in spring training games, but Garrett Mitchell has a chance to be really fun, doesn’t he?
Keith Law: He can really run, and there’s enough bat-to-ball there to make that play, so even if he’s never actually good he should be an exciting player.

Danyul: Hi Keith – what role do you see garrett crochet playing for the sox this year
Keith Law: Reliever only, if he stays healthy.

Nick V: Has Groome’s ceiling lowered significantly due to his injury induced absences? I understand his bust potential is through the roof right now, but has any reports on his stuff being surprisingly good/bad?
Keith Law: No, his ceiling hasn’t lowered significantly. His curveball is more a 60 now than a 70, so it’s a little lower, but that’s the only real negative indicator right now.

Luke: Keith, loved the book. Can you speak to how the base rate affects the evaluation of Mississippi high schoolers (for example)? I understand how HS catchers and pitchers form a base rate, but for a geographic area what’s the commonality that should lump them into the same group? Level of competition?
Keith Law: Yes, level of competition. Applies to cold-weather kids too, although we’ve had more successes from high schools in the northeast than in Mississippi. There could be other variables involved as well – perhaps kids from the northeast are more likely to come from economically advantaged backgrounds that let them pay for outside coaching, or train at better facilities, or just get into more games.

Guest: Loved seeing the highlights of Rocker and Leiter recently. However, every time I see their pitch counts I think of you. Does their workload concern you at all?
Keith Law: It’s at the upper end of what PitchSmart considers acceptable. I’d really like to see Vanderbilt stop pushing them so hard every week. There’s just no good reason for it.

Santaspirt: What to make of DJ LeMahieu? Barely an average hitter by wRC+ in Colorado and then completely changes in NY
Keith Law: He’s made substantial use of the ballpark in the Bronx. Look at his home runs and where they’ve landed.

Guest: I know it’s just spring training, but the way Bell and Schwarber and Zimmerman (always a slow starter) have been swinging the bat in Florida has to bode well for the Nats’ lineup depth, right? Not that they’re all going to carry 1.100 OPS all year, but if they’re hitting pretty well this year that could have a major impact on the NL East. It feels like Washington has the widest variance range between “pretty forgettable” (if the bats aren’t there) and “95 wins” (if they all come up box cars).
Keith Law: Wrong. It’s just spring training. All of those guys could suck this year (I’m not predicting that) and three good weeks in March doesn’t change the probability of that happening.

Justin: Just watching some highlights, it seems like Rocker puts the ball where he wants it more often than Leiter does the same (granted, this is just a small sample in what Pitching Ninja provides on twitter), but I think Leiter is known as being the one more likely to have good command long term.   What are some things that scouts look for to say that someone without good present command may have good command someday.
Keith Law: That’s not accurate – Leiter does that at least as well as Rocker does. The biggest difference I hear from scouts on those two is that Leiter misses more bats with his fastball right now, while Rocker can show you a 70 slider (but hasn’t done so every start).

Generic MLB Player: Just so you know, I am in the absolute best shape of my career!
Keith Law: Good to hear! I am not.

justin g: Fernando Tatis was terrible the end of last year. Is it possible that his initial numbers are a mirage?
Keith Law: You’re asking if about 3 weeks in September tell us more than a year-plus of data that preceded it?

Jason (DC): Keeper league fantasy baseball and looking to add a prospect bat. Who do you like most long-term out of Nolan Gorman, Jarren Duran, Brandon Marsh, or Heliot Ramos? Thank you.
Keith Law: I’d go Duran, Marsh, Ramos, Gorman, in that order.

Pramit: I know that you (and many) tend not to fall for the “he’s in the best shape of his life” narrative that is created during the spring, but would you say Vlad’s weight loss could result in him having a breakout this year?
Keith Law: His weight never affected him at the plate. It’s how he swings. He’s hitting the ball hard but not squaring it up enough, getting on top of it to put it on the ground. Fix that and go have a milkshake.

eric: got my second pfizer shot, no issues, and the piece of mind and hope it brings is amazing.

EVERYONE: IF YOU CAN GET VACCINATED, GET VACCINATED!
Keith Law: Absolutely. I’m hoping Delaware will open it up to my category on the 1st. We’re so behind here.

Frank: Is there any chance Bobby Witt Jr makes the club for opening day?  Considering they are not going to contend this year wouldnt the royals be crazy not to manipulate his service time?
Keith Law: Witt Jr has never played a pro game outside of the complexes. I think promoting him what was once considered six levels and now would be five in one fell swoop would be, to use the technical term, crazy-go-nuts.

Jack: Is there any chance MLB actually moves the all-star game from Atlanta?
Keith Law: I doubt it – I really doubt it – but shame on everyone involved with a conscience if they don’t try.

Dave: Will Ryan McMahon ever happen?
Keith Law: I’m still in the yes camp. I know Sarah Langs of MLB.com called him a breakout candidate for 2021 too.

Eric: the apatow-type early-to-mid 2000s blockbuster comedies (40 yr old virgin, anchorman, old school, etc.) couldn’t – and shouldn’t – be made today. how does one reconcile laughing at and enjoying and quoting content that may have not struck one as super offensive 15-20 years ago, but now realizing how inappropriate and offensive it was to so many marginalized communities?
Keith Law: You have to draw that line for yourself. I believe works of art are largely products of their times. I happen to really like The Scarlet Pimpernel as a novel, but the anti-Semitic trope of the wandering Jew character would make it unpublishable today (for good reason), so it wouldn’t appear on any of my future rankings of novels, and I wouldn’t recommend that my kids read it. It popped up on a reading list for my daughter’s school when she was in 8th grade and I suggested that they reconsider it. Yet I also can recognize that the adventure story within is one of the best I’ve read in literature.

Kevin: what are the odds we see either a work stoppage or a strike for the 22 season?
Keith Law: Better than even.

Cory: Would you say that Lawlar, Rocker, and Leiter are clearly separating themselves from the rest of the draft class in their own tier, or is that still too early to say?
Keith Law: Take Lawlar out of that … he hasn’t looked like a top 3 guy so far. I don’t think 1-1 can be anyone but the two Vandy boys right now, but I also don’t think there’s an enormous gap between them and the next tier of college guys (Davis, del Castillo, Hoglund).

Mike: Banning the shift is ridiculous, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Dan: Is it at least slightly concerning that someone as polished as Torkelson has struck out 13 times in 24 PA this spring?
Keith Law: No.

Guest: In which film did you find the fictitious elements to be more distracting or detracting overall, Mank or The Trial of the Chicago 7?  For me it was the former because it felt out of place to begin with, in addition to being factually inaccurate, whereas in the latter those elements felt somewhat organic to the plot.
Keith Law: The latter, because they were so obviously fake. Sorkin just couldn’t help himself.

Dan: Why do you hate Nick Madrigal?
Keith Law: We were at Frost Gelato in Arizona at the same time. He was in front of me in line and he took the last scoop of Sea Salt Caramel. I’ll never forgive him.

RIP Jessica Walter: “I love all my children equally.”

“I don’t care for Gob.”
Keith Law: I’ll leave when I’m good and ready.

Mac: Do you really think MLB will crack down on pitchers using foreign substances and if so how do you see this affecting the (many) pitchers who doctor the baseball going forward?
Keith Law: Yes, but probably just at a cursory level, to do something without doing everything.

Jason: Will cryptocurrency end badly for a lot of people and investors?
Keith Law: Hasn’t every bubble, ever?

Bob: Bos and Tex both claimed that if scouts had seen more of Yorke and Carter they would have been drafted higher. They’ve both been to instructs and Yorke has been in camp with Bis so they have potentially been seen a bit. Should Sox and Rangers fans be feeling any more confident in those picks?
Keith Law: Not sure I buy that at all … it’s not that scouts didn’t see Yorke or Carter, but that they saw them and didn’t like what they saw. I had no trouble finding scouts who saw those guys last June.

Matt: Any “just missed” breakout predictions or players you considered but didn’t include in your article?
Keith Law: A reader mentioned Gavin Lux in the comments under that article and I think that’s a great call. I’ll gladly co-opt that pick and give them the credit.

Jesse B: How quick do you think Andy Pages can move through  the minors?
Keith Law: Really depends on the swing-and-miss. I just don’t think we know enough on him to say if he’s 3 years away or 4-5 years.

PJ: I’m curious about your view on eliminating the filibuster.  On one hand, it feels like the Dems could get a lot done in the next 18 months.  On the other hand, the Republicans could EASILY take back the Senate in 2022 or 2024, and there isn’t exactly a Supreme Court Democrats could use as a backstop for terrible far-right legislation that could pass.
Keith Law: It’s starkly anti-democratic and there have been calls to remove it from multiple people across the political spectrum for decades. If removing that restores voting rights before 2022, it’s worth doing.

Randy: Looking for some new places to buy coffee beans online. Any recommendations?
Keith Law: My most recent order was from Deeper Roots in Cincinnati (a Rwanda and an espresso blend).

Scott: I know how strong you feel about domestic abuse, do you think there is a legitimate quasi-every day center fielder option in the Phillies mix right now besides Odubel Hererra? Feels like the team is looking for an excuse not to give him the job but unless they’re believers in Roman Quinn bunting twice a game will they end up throwing their hands up and saying ‘we had no other choice’? How do you rank Kingery/Quinn/Haseley/Moniak/Haseley?
Keith Law: I’d put Kingery there in a heartbeat and put Odubel on a slow boat to nowhere.

Ridley: Editors make writers better and the writer gets credit for it. Bragging about an editor-free platform would be a bit of a self-own, wouldn’t it?

Also, the kind of writer who longs to free themselves from the editors is almost always the kind of writer who most needs them (in my experience, at least).
Keith Law: Sacca did back off his comments, and was gracious about much of the criticism he received. I don’t like seeing anyone kick a group that’s down the way editors – whose jobs have been gradually disappearing for 20 years, because, as you said, they do the work and don’t get credit, so any private equity douchebro could walk in and sack them without compunction – are right now.

JT: Would you let Manoah start the year in the pen, or is the surer way to starting still starting in the minors, such as they are?
Keith Law: I’d be fine starting him in relief and moving him to the rotation in June or so. Great way to break in a young starter.

Gerald: I recall that you were bullish on Ohtani as a pitcher but skeptical that he would be a productive MLB hitter. Has he exceeded your expectations as a hitter and, if so, has anything changed in his approach?
Keith Law: Correct and he has exceeded my expectations, but he also hasn’t really hit full-time. His swing gets so long I’m amazed teams aren’t trying to crush him with velocity inside more often. He has to guess right to get to it.

The Seaward: In spite of the governor’s ridiculous statement, most responsible businesses in Texas still requires masks. What on earth do the Rangers think they’re going to gain on opening day that will be bigger than the hit they’re going to take for the outbreak they cause?
Keith Law: They’re betting, as Gov. Abbott and so many political leaders have, that there won’t be an outbreak, and they’ll avoid any repercussions. Even here in DE, the Governor reopened things too early, and all our indicators are rising again … but it’s slow and nobody is making anything of it, even though the connection between looser restrictions and rising R0 and daily case rates is obvious. We’d need an explosion in cases for anyone to get mad. If there’s no explosion in cases after some Rangers home games, no one will care.

Owen: If killing the filibuster means that DC and/or Puerto Rico get admitted as states and there are 2-4 new Democratic Senators who will make it much harder for the GQP to regain power for the foreseeable future (plus, obviously, restored voting rights), it will be well worth it.
Keith Law: Fair point. Senate aside, there’s no fair and reasoned argument why the 3.8 million U.S. citizens in those two jurisdictions should lack the representations in Congress that the rest of us enjoy.

Punk in Drublic: Who are a few guys outside your top 100 prospects who you think have the most offensive upside?  Thanks.  And keep sticking to whatever is on your mind
Keith Law: Austin Hendrick, Pedro Leon, Jeremiah Jackson, Lewin Diaz, Mark Vientos, Patrick Bailey, Brenton Doyle.

Guest: How should MLB reconcile that the methods to win baseball games most efficiently (lots of swing and miss and K’s and not many balls in play) is completely opposite to the most exciting aspects of the game (balls in play, stolen bases, etc)?  Are there rule changes that could actually be effective instead of “ban the shift” windowdressing?
Keith Law: Sure, but they require will, and agreement on both sides. I like the idea of limiting pickoff throws, because it might increase basestealing, and because pickoff throws are the third most boring thing that can happen in a baseball game (number 2 is a manager arguing with an umpire, especially after he’s been ejected, and number 1 is a brawl).
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat – I have to finish my season predictions column in the next hour. I should be back for another chat next Thursday, and if you haven’t already pre-ordered it, the paperback edition of my second book The Inside Game will be out in just 11 days. Thank you all so much for reading.