Klawchat 7/8/21.

My sort-of-final mock draft will go up Friday morning at The Athletic.

Keith Law: And I feel like a beetle on its back. Klawchat.

barbeach: So happy for another Klawchat! So tired of watching Brett Gardner and Rougned Odor strike out…is promoting Hoy Jun Park from Scranton a legit option for 2B/SS/OF?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. Would be nice to see him get a shot but this is way out of line with anything he’s done before.

Howie: Hi Keith, thank you for these chats. If you were running the Yankees, would you consider a moderate sell off? Gio, Britton, Green? A larger sell off including Judge? The self imposed limitations to the luxury tax were seemingly imposed by Hal, but this team would be in a better place with different SP acquisitions this offseason. Yeah – captain obvious, pointing out the obvious…Thanks again!
Keith Law: I can’t imagine ownership allowing a sell-off, but they’re also not far enough out of the race to justify that right now. If they have a Cubs-level meltdown in the next two weeks, perhaps.

Annan: Spencer Strider have a chance to be a GUY?
Keith Law: Outside chance, but keep in mind he had no business in low A to start the year. Double A is a much better test of his secondary stuff.

Greg: Any rumors on which high schoolers could price themselves to college?
Keith Law: I mean, yes, and no. Most of that stuff is bullshit for posturing purposes. Lorenzo Carrier took his name out of the draft. I heard Thatcher Hurd might. But anyone else is just jockeying for more money – and there is a TON of money to be spent in the supplemental and second rounds.

Mike: Any rumors on what the Red Sox might be thinking at 4? Seems like if Leiter isn’t there it’s pretty wide open as to what they’ll do.
Keith Law: If Leiter isn’t there I’m pretty sure they’d take Davis. Rocker is also a possibility. That’s probably it – definitely not wide open.

G: I was disappointed to see Roansy Contreras recent forearm tightness will prevent him from pitching in the Futures Game. Potential injury issues notwithstanding, did his early season velocity bump and improved results elevate him above other pitchers like Priester in the Pirates organization, and was he looking like a  top-100 contender in a mid-season update?
Keith Law: I usually do a top 50 midseason, not 100, but Contreras would be in the latter group not the former.

Jason: I saw your tweet recently about Luis Urias production since moving off SS. Do you think he can be a GUY at 3B for the brewers in the short and longer term?
Keith Law: Yes. I thought 2B would be better for his defensive skill set, but either way, getting him off shortstop should help him. He could always put the bat on the ball.

Danny: I think you’ve praised Anthony Volpe in recent chats and on twitter (even giving a mea culpa). He was your 18th ranked Yankee prospect coming into the season. Where do you think he roughly ranks on their list now? Top 3 or 4 behind Peraza?
Keith Law: Ahead of Peraza. He might be 2 after Dominguez. Deivi’s a mess. Schmidt is hurt. Who am I forgetting?

Danny: Deivi Garcia has been pretty awful in just 33+ innings in AAA as a 22 year old. Is this cause for concern? Are you less convinced he can start after the first half of this year?
Keith Law: Yeah someone fucked up his delivery. He’s a low slot slider-slinger now. Complete disaster. If I were the GM there I’d be on the warpath over this – he was one of their top 3 prospects and right now he has no value.
Keith Law: All the deception, the depth on the CB, all gone. I don’t get it.

Tom: Good to have klawchat back! Zach Thompson for the Marlins has looked great, both in the minors and in his 5 or so appearances in the bigs. Can he be a middle of the rotation guy?
Keith Law: More back of the rotation IMO.

Jason: Who do you like better long-term, Patino or Baz?
Keith Law: I really like both guys. I had Patiño higher in the offseason top 100 but that’s not a slight on Baz.

Sean S: How are you able to incorporate spin efficiency, exit velocity, and other newer tools when evaluating players in person?  Do you use 3rd party sources for this?
Keith Law: I don’t – no one does. Those are two separate evaluation processes. You can’t pretend to evaluate “spin efficiency” in person. Let the machines handle that stuff; go scout the player, not the metrics.

Ryan: the warning signs for bauer were flashing for some time. Please tell me we didn’t just look the other way because he gives a good sound bite and has a YouTube channel
Keith Law: The warning signs that Bauer wasn’t a good guy were there – he’s a bully, he didn’t play well with others, etc. I do not agree with any argument that his public behavior was some indicator of a propensity for violence against women. Saying that just gives a false sense of security that we can spot the abuser – plenty of men show a different face to the world than the one they wear at home. The BTK killer presented himself as a family man who was active in his church. It’s just not a straight-line relationship.
Keith Law: If Bauer is guilty of even a fraction of the accusations, I hope we never see or hear from him again, and all the people who enabled him are called to account for doing so – from the people in his camp to the writers who kept boosting him as ‘quirky’ or ‘eccentric.’ But I can’t take that last step to saying anyone on the outside should have known he was (allegedly) physically abusing women.

Question: Can people be racist against white males?
Keith Law: No. Saying they can is a fundamental misunderstanding of what racism is.

Hoke Moseley: Pittsburgh talk radio has seized on the “Bob Nutting is cheap” narrative to explain why they are looking to “save money” with their 1st overall selection. I’ve been banging my head against a wall trying to explain to family the rules of the MLB draft as a result. Do you think changes to the slotting/allotment system in the draft will be discussed in the upcoming CBA? It seems like another bar for casual fans to clear in order to understand the game that could be remedied in the future.
Keith Law: I think the draft will be tweaked in the next CBA because the two sides can’t help but tweak it. I’m not sure that’ll make it any better, though. They really should just allow teams to trade draft picks already.

Tom: Casey Mize pitching to the tune of a 4.74 FIP per Bref..he’s not there as a top of the rotation guy. What’s he need to do to get there?
Keith Law: It’s all in the home runs. And that’s mostly his four-seamer. I do wonder if the changes to the baseball are hurting him, but I’m also surprised he’s not throwing more splitters and fewer four-seamers.

Jordan: How cool is it that Jake Burger is doing what he’s doing after missing the past three years of professional baseball?
Keith Law: It’s great. One to root for.

Tom: Joe Ryan of the rays. Great bb:k numbers in AAA. Think he gets the call post allstar break and what is his most likely outcome as a big leaguer?
Keith Law: I worry he’ll be homer-prone, but yes, he should be in line for a callup some time in the next month. For his most likely outcome etc. I’ll refer you back to my Rays prospect rankings: https://klaw.me/3d0vAe3

Peter: Recently saw that Jered Eickoff and Mason Williams opted for free agency rather than accept a minor league assignment from the Mets – then resigned a minor league deal with them like the next day and are back in the minors. What are the machinations going on there. Obviously, I’m assuming money?
Keith Law: Could also have included opt-out clauses or other language. Call me up by 8/1 or I get to be a free agent; I get to leave if another team offers me a major-league spot.

Shane: Klaw, what is your take on Jo Adell still being in Salt Lake (unintended rhyme)? On the one hand, he is still striking out at a 30% clip and only walking 7% of the time. But on the other, he has to better than any of the Angels healthy outfielders, right?
Keith Law: The first hand is a lot bigger than the second one, especially if you want to develop him.

incandenza: You’ve said the Red Sox are focused on college guys, but does that mean they’d take Leiter/Davis/Rocker over *any* of the HS shortstops (including Mayer) if the latter are available at the fourth pick? Is Jobe in the picture for them at all?
Keith Law: Yes, I think they’d take those college guys first. Jobe isn’t, and he shouldn’t be. HS pitchers in the first round are way too risky; at pick 4, the opportunity cost is through the roof.

Tim: Is there any chance Henry Davis goes lower than 4 to the Red Sox?
Keith Law: Yes. If they pass, I’m actually not sure where he goes.

addoeh: You’ve talked about on your podcast recently that your daughters played softball this year.  Was there any pressure from the league or coaches for you to help coach once they find out what you do for a living?  How was the experience overall?
Keith Law: Nobody knew of my day job and that was fine by me! I tried to stay out of the way … I think the only things I suggested were some really basic points like ensuring their hands were together on the bat. Otherwise, I’ll let the coaches do their thing for now. They’re both so young that the goal here is to have fun, not to turn either one into Jennie Finch.

Arnold: Hey Keith, has the low-power, high-average contact hitter become so undervalued that some team could Moneyball the game with a squad of such players and be successful?
Keith Law: I feel like the Pirates tried this and it didn’t work. Low power often means insufficiently hard contact. You can’t win with a team of Madrigals.

Larry: Do you have any plans to do any book signings in the Phoenix area soon?
Keith Law: I have nothing scheduled, but I’m always open to doing them if stores reach out. I really enjoy them. Speaking of which, come see me at the Tattered Cover across from the ballpark on Monday at noon MT!

Ryan: What do you make of Person’s season so far? Still young for the level, but his offense has been dreadful. Have you heard anything about how he’s looked?
Keith Law: He’s kind of generic.
Keith Law: I assume you meant Robert Puason? He’s a perfect example of a player adversely affected by the termination of short-season leagues. That’s where he belongs.

Carlos: I’ve read that AJ Vukovich has looked really good so far. Do you think he has a shot to make the top 100 next year?
Keith Law: Yes, a shot.

Akiva: Is Mark Vientos for real? His June was god-like.
Keith Law: I’ve always bought the swing. He has to do this for more than a month.

Dylan: I’ve read some glowing reports on Elijah Green. Have you ever seen him? Do you agree that he’s the top player in the 2022 draft?
Keith Law: I haven’t yet, and no, I don’t agree. Anointing someone the top player a year or more out rarely works out. Brady Singer was one. Kumar Rocker was one. Brice Turang was one. Harper & Strasburg turned out to be those guys. Rendon and Buxton were at least good enough. But often it’s just that we haven’t started to bear down on those players enough to separate them into more than rough tiers.

Moe Mentum: IIRC your favorite college course was “Comedy and the Novel.” Have you read any more recent novels in the decades (sorry) since you were a student that would have been worthy of that class?
Keith Law: Tons. Lucky Jim. A Confederacy of Dunces. The Sell-out. Maybe Money. Inherent Vice. I’m not sure if Jasper Fforde’s books are literary enough, but several of his would work for their comedy and mix of high- and lowbrow humor. I’m also a bit surprised the course included Joseph Andrews but not Tristram Shandy, the latter of which is funnier if a little harder to read.

Joe: Keith, which of Peraza or Volpe (or neither) is the Yankees shortstop of the future?
Keith Law: I’d really like to see how he’s changed, but the reports I’ve gotten on Volpe from other scouts point to him.
Keith Law: I wrote this last week, but again, I was way off on that one.

Josh: Keith, better long-term prospect, Gunnar Henderson or Anthony Volpe?  For a fantasy league that drafts minor leaguers.
Keith Law: Like ’em both but I’d take Volpe right now.

Jerry: On Sunday, when Aroldis Chapman melted down, Mets broadcaster Gary Cohen said team losses when a closer loses his stuff are demoralizing. I think that might be true. Isn’t one way to avoid that if teams to stop having just one closer and actually try “bullpen by committee”?
Keith Law: Aren’t all losses demoralizing? What about getting your clocks cleaned 12-1 and your left fielder comes in to pitch? What about losing 11 games in a row and you wonder if you’ll ever win again? I just don’t buy it. Losing sucks. But eventually every team wins one.

xxx(yyy): as a Rangers fan, which way should I hope the team goes? pitching or hitting (generally)?
Keith Law: Best Player Available. Pick 2 you go for broke.

xxx(yyy): what cookbook have you cooked the most from in 2021?
Keith Law: Been a mix of them but I’ve used Parvana quite a bit. Can’t wait to crack The Flavor Equation next.

Fitz: As a Jays fan, should I be concerned about Nate Pearson’s long-term outlook? Is there reason to believe he will magically start staying healthy?
Keith Law: I’d be worried about his health, yes.

Snowy: Ty Madden to the Giants at 14 has a lot of buzz online, are you hearing similar things?
Keith Law: I have not, actually. That’s a bad pick. I’d be disappointed if I were a Giants fan, given who they’d be passing up

Indians fan: Is Bobby Bradley the future at 1st for the Indians?  Rest of season?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. He’s been awful since those first few games.

Mike: How you feel about drafting high school players in the 1st round?  It seems to take 4-5 years to get to the majors.
Keith Law: Position players, sure. Plenty of them turn into stars and their attrition rate isn’t any worse than that of college guys. Pitchers, though, I wouldn’t ever do it in the top 15.

Guest: Looking for any Phillies draft info.  You previously mentioned Jonathan Vastine as a kid they were connected to (maybe in the second round).  Anything changed with that?  And is there any chance Tyler Black or Trey Sweeney make it to the Phillies at 2-49?
Keith Law: No chance. Both those kids go in the late first, I think. Sweeney could even go in the teens, even though he didn’t face any good pitching all year and isn’t a shortstop.

Orioles: What is your opinion on the drafting strategy of not paying top 1st round money ?  (Seems like a team would rather have Martin than Kjerstad and better 2nd round). Explain the strategy
Keith Law: The strategy makes sense on paper, but you have to get the right guys with later over-slot picks.

Mike: Keith, I know you don’t draft for need, but due to lack of arms in upper minors, don’t the Mets have to take a college arm unless Jobe or one of the shortstops fall?
Keith Law: The Mets do not have to do that, no. Also, Jobe is not the answer.
Keith Law: Jackson Jobe might be a stud. He’s also a high school pitcher who throws hard. The odds of that class of player succeeding are lower than the odds of any other class of player.

John: Is it true that most MLB teams only expect 1-2 players from the Draft  to be a consistent contributor(s) in the MLB?
Keith Law: If you get two regulars, that’s a good draft.

Hinkie: What are your thoughts on the MLB Draft League?  What player(s) helped themselves the most by playing in that league this spring/summer?
Keith Law: It didn’t work. I don’t know of anyone who really helped himself there. The big pop-up name of the summer was Rohan Handa, the Yalie (sneers) in the NECBL.

Aaron C.: Is “Stick to Baseball” and the Saturday links post a victim of your current schedule? Will they be back after the draft? I fucking loved them if you can’t tell.
Keith Law: Yes, but with the draft & some (good) personal stuff, I’ve been way too busy.

Kyle: Klaw, how low could Rocker fall in this draft? Any chance he falls to the Mets at 10?
Keith Law: Yes, there’s a chance. I think 10/11 is his absolute floor.

Ben (MN): Any non-baseball vacation spots you are looking to hit now that it is more feasible to do so?
Keith Law: We’ve been talking about going to Wales to visit my wife’s cousins there for a year, but I think that’ll have to wait until 2022. (I’m not going there in the winter unless absolutely necessary. Dw i ddim yn hoffi’r gaeaf yng nghymru. Mae’n rhy oer a rhy gymylog.) And eventually we’d like to take that honeymoon to South America …

SG in SD: Thanks for the chat Keith! When will your next mock be up?
Keith Law: Tomorrow, as it says up top.

nate: How do you think NIL would effect high school players? Do you worry that two sport guys might go to college just for football because there’s more money there?
Keith Law: Those are the guys most affected (helped) by this – the two-sport guys who could make real money off their likenesses in football or basketball. Maybe one baseball player a year is like that, but will he make enough via NIL to pass up $5MM now (compared to the NIL income plus whatever bonus he expects in 2-3 years)?

droopydave: Have you ever been hunting?  Would you consider it?
Keith Law: No. No.

Steve: Hi Keith, thanks for the chat. Do you think the NYM go top heavy again like that past few years ( Allan and Ginn ) or revert back to normal with Alderson/Scott ?
Keith Law: Same guys running the draft and you can’t argue with their results. Look at how much of the current team came through their amateur work. I bet they do the same – go big on someone in the 2nd/3rd rounds and then save money elsewhere. But at 10 the only name I’ve heard that would be a discount would be Colson Montgomery, and I think they’ll have better guys available.

Bob: After a brutal 1st month, Pedro Leon has been pretty good. Is he one of the most intriguing players at the Futures Game? Do you think he’ll hit enough to get to his tools in games?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes. Really looking forward to seeing him.

Chris: Which of the tier of 8 (rocker, leiter, jobe, house, mayer, Lawler, Watson, Davis) are most likely to slip? What’s the latest you could see one of them falling to?
Keith Law: Rocker I mentioned. Jobe could go 3, or he could slip out of the top ten.

Drew: I know he’s young and I’m not too worried, but I’m not too familiar with him so I wanted to get your opinion on the Cards’ Johan Oviedo.  Makeup seems good, and that slider could  be fun but the lack of control is tough to watch, even if it’s expected for a kid that young.
Keith Law: He’s 23 and he’s never been good anywhere. He’s just big. I’m not a big believer.

Darren: Hi Keith,
   Would be interested to hear your thoughts on children playing baseball that have some anxiety. Our son got hit a few times early this season and now is afraid of getting hit. He steps back when he swings and if he stands in there, he steps out of the box at anything close to being inside. Have you had issues with anxiety going back to full stadiums? We still have not been to a game yet. Hope all is well
Keith Law: That’s a question for a medical professional, but I’m going to guess they’ll at least argue for some exposure therapy.

Bryan: With Jarren Duran not making the Olympic roster, do you believe a call-up to Boston is imminent?
Keith Law: Yes.

mRNA BTN162b2: Have you heard/seen any more about Noelvi Marte? Worth the trip to Modesto?
Keith Law: Nothing new, just that he is what we expected so far, and I’m bummed he’s not in the Futures Game.

Joe: Keith, I am in full agreement with you about the overuse of college pitchers with major league careers ahead of them. But is there a discussion to be had about what a college coach owes the other players on his team? For some, major league baseball is not an option, and winning the College World Series may be the highlight of their sports life. What obligation does the coach have to those players to do everything he can to win those games?
Keith Law: Any such obligation should not come at the expense of one particular player.

Ben: If you were advising Mayer what number would you be looking to get from the Pirates? It doesn’t seem like it makes any sense for him to ask for less than the 2nd bonus slot, given Pittsburgh’s ownership situation and how much the Rangers and Tigers seem to like him.
Keith Law: He shouldn’t take less than slot at 3. I don’t really know how strong Texas’ interest is.

Adam: Had been a few straight down years but Jhailyn Ortiz, who you’ve ranked well previously, seems to be coming into his own. Can he be a future regular still?
Keith Law: He’s repeating high A, and is 22, so I don’t want to get too excited yet, but it’s nice to see a stat line more in line with what I expected. I hope he gets a month in Reading to finish the year.

Justin: Obviously “taking a slightly less talented player in order to spend more on picks later” is an accepted strategy.   At what point do you think it doesn’t make sense anymore?  Like, if the Pirates took, I dunno, Frelick #1 for $4 million to be able to spend an extra $4 mil later as opposed to taking Mayer for $7 mil and being able to spend $1 mil later, should Pirates fans be annoyed/upset?
Keith Law: Yes, there’s no way they’re getting enough talent to justify the opportunity cost of taking Frelick at 1 over anyone else.

TDC: Why do the Nationals only ever seem to target pitchers with their early round picks? This trend has left Mike Rizzo with possibly the weakest position player group of any farm system.
Keith Law: They have some arms, though. Cavalli appears to be a stud.  If Rutledge is healthy, he’s a potential high-end reliever. I agree that mixing in a bat every now and then would be a good idea, but they obviously have a clear philosophy.

Sweeney: If and when the Pirates save some $ on the first overall, who would you see as a few guys they could target overslot in the second round? I’ve had my eyes set on Joe Mack assuming one of the SS goes #1, but is there any way they can push him down enough?
Keith Law: Mack’s almost certainly gone. Look more to the HS arms, the  Painter, Mozzicato, Coppola, Morales, Bruns group.

Rob: There’s no salvaging the Arenado trade but I’m curious if Eli Montero is at least salvaging some of his former promise? All I can see is the numbers but those at least appear positive.
Keith Law: I thought he was a prospect in low A, but then he hurt his hamate and jumped to AA and struggled. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him turn into a regular.

Justin: People who think that acquiring Adam Frazier should require a huge prospect package are off base, right?  Do you think they view him as anything more than just “solid .280/.350/400 type leadoff guy with decent defense”?  Obviously that’s worth *something* in a deal, but I feel like he’s become overrated by fans/media because of some babip luck.
Keith Law: Yeah, this is a fluky year, no way you give up a top prospect for him now.

Christian (Raleigh, NC): Hi Keith — Thank you for recent write-up on some of the Braves prospects you have seen (Michael Harris, Freddy Tarnok, etc.). Do you think Harris has an approach at the plate that will allow him to tighten up some of the swing-and-miss issues he has shown with non-fastballs? As a Braves fan I am hoping he can actually develop some kind of plan at the plate unlike other Braves prospects (for example – Waters) who really never have. Thanks.
Keith Law: The swing is fine, but the recognition isn’t. Saw the same problems with Jesse Franklin, but more so. I wonder if AA pitching will eat Franklin up.

Alex: I know Jobe is a HS pitcher and there is a lot of inherit risk- with taking one high first- but I have heard he has two plus pitches (plus plus?) and the makings of third.   He also does not seem to have been ridden into the ground (IIRC, he got more attention at SS) like other HS pitchers Dylan Bundy.    What am I missing?
Keith Law: He’s a HS pitcher. That is his ‘class’ and the base rate for that class is lower in odds of seeing the majors and odds of success.

Justin: Who would be your “dark horse” for the #1 overall pick?   Anyone outside of the consensus top 7ish guys?  I have a weird feeling about Frelick or Cowser.
Keith Law: Kahlil Watson.

Kip: Thanks for all the great draft coverage.  If you saw it,  what were your thoughts on the Ken Burns Hemingway doc?
Keith Law: Haven’t seen it. Never a big fan of his writing.

Darny: What kind of $ increase did Will Bednar earn himself closing out the CWS? 15-25 range now?
Keith Law: I don’t know, maybe $5000.

Mac: What is Harry Ford’s best position?
Keith Law: Batters box? He might be a right fielder.

Mac: Is Colson Montgomery the riskiest player considered to be a first round talent?
Keith Law: Him or Benny Montgomery. Benny for his swing, Colson for his age/position.

Justin: Do you think Henry Davis is a solid MLB C when it’s all said and done?
Keith Law: I do – but I know some scouts think he’s not a catcher in the long term. He’s good enough now that with professional coaching I think he’ll be an above-average defender.

Josh: For all the (valid) talk about how modern baseball strategy is making the sport less watchable, I really enjoy watching what the Giants and Gabe Kapler are doing in terms of getting most of their position players into every game (15 batters with >100 PA; very few true “full-time” players). It feels engaging as a fan to think along with the decision-making and it keeps me interested through high-stakes pinch hitting choices and “line changes” when a new opposing pitcher comes in. It’s non-traditional, but I find it compelling and sort of fresh as a viewer. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I agree. And FTR I don’t think shifting makes baseball less watchable. the damn rabbit ball does.

Dan: Has Dillon Dingler solidified himself as a top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: He might be. He’s very good, certainly.

Jesse B: Has Jordan Walker’s pitch perception been better than you anticipated, and if so are we looking a potential star down the road?
Keith Law: Yes, way better, and yes.

In A Big Country: I’m not expecting to grow flowers in the desert…damn you Keith, been stuck in my head for two days now.  By the way, ever heard the “Wonderland” EP, because it’s pretty great.
Keith Law: It’s such a quintessentially ’80s song. Adamson was brilliant. They just got pigeonholed by MTV. Wonderland is great, too.

Mac: Do you think MLB will keep a mid July draft date?
Keith Law: Yes. It’s not like Manfred ever listens to any feedback from club execs or scouts.

Jason S: Do you think Jazz always as swing and miss issues? His swing looks so quiet to me. Is it just pitch recognition?
Keith Law: Yes and maybe some inexperience. I think he’s going to end up a superstar at least in some years. He’ll be worth The Wait.

Mac: Madden or Bednar?
Keith Law: Bednar for me.

Uli Jon: Any chance the Giants go pitcher, or are they committed to position players and hoping Farhan and the ballpark can continue to weave magic with former prospects?
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re committed either way.

ChrisP: Do you think Adrian Del Castillo can stay behind the dish, and if not, then what would his ceiling be?
Keith Law: At the end of the day (spring), no, I don’t think he will, and unless someone gets him to power, he’s a bench guy.
Keith Law: Now, there’s probably power in there, but he’s a swing overhaul guy who needs a position. I don’t take that guy in the first round.

Justin: do any of the prospects in this draft crack your overall top 40 or 50?
Keith Law: Yes, at least 5-6.

Pat: It’s interesting to hear you say the Red Sox are choosing out of conventional candidates after what they did last year with Yorke. No chance they just go way off script again?
Keith Law: Not at pick 4, I don’t think. They picked later last year.

James: How worrisome is Matt Manning right now? He can’t get anyone to swing and miss, has no secondary stuff, and no spin on his fastball.
Keith Law: He was hurt last year in August and hasn’t looked right at all this year. Something’s up.

Kevin: Do you think it is better for Triston Casas’ development to go with team USA to Tokyo, or to stay in AA for the next month+?
Keith Law: Staying in AA.

ChrisP: What’s happened to Gore this year? Is he hurt or tinkering with his mechanics?
Keith Law: Blister. The Padres are also working on his mechanics but every time his blisters return this happens.

Brian: I have a hard time believing Detroit would take Jobe at 3 if Leiter and Mayer are gone. Who should they take in that situation? One of the shortstops or Davis?
Keith Law: Jobe or House. Not Davis.

Danny: Any idea what’s up with Alexander Vizciano and TJ Sikkema for the Yankees? Haven’t pitched at all this season. Are they expected to come back this season?
Keith Law: Sikkema has had a “lat” injury for like three months.

Rick Sanchez: Baz, Cavalli, and Detmers have all seen their prospect status soar this year. Is it too aggressive to say these guys have ace upside?
Keith Law: Detmers is hitting 97 now. He’s way better than we thought.

Appa Yip Yip: I read that draft pick trading was nixed in the 80s because the commissioner was worried cheap teams would trade all their picks so they never had to pay draft bonuses, which is hilariously on brand for baseball, but do you know if it’s actually true?
Keith Law: That was the rationale, but it turned out to be totally wrong. Cheap teams want more picks. The draft remains the best value in baseball.

xxx(yyy): Wife and I are taking a trip (long weekend) to one of the following cities late this year, which of these do you (most) recommend? Charleston, Denver, New Orleans, Portland or somewhere else? Mainly a food/exploring trip so open to other places!
Keith Law: Charleston is amazing. Portland might be the best combo of food + stuff to do, though.

Drew: Have you followed any of the Bret Weinstein / anti-vax / Ivermectin saga? It’s kind of sad to see a scientist use his credentials to spread such paranoid tripe.
Keith Law: Yes. Not sure if he’s really lost his mind, or if this is just a grift. He’s a good example of someone on the political left who has delved into pseudoscience and anti-vaxxerism, though. It’s not solely the province of the right.

Brad: On the podcast, you mentioned Benny Montgomery as possibly a Rockies pick. Would he be a reach there? BTW, I will see you Monday, and I don’t need a note from you to miss work for the event.
Keith Law: Oh cool, I assume your boss is coming too, then. It would be a reach but perhaps an under-slot pick.

Roy: Have you always felt averse to taking HS pitchers early? I thought you were on board with Hunter Greene going top 2 a few years back–this is not an argument, by the way, but a genuine question. I wasn’t sure if there are exceptional talents, or if I was wrong about that, or if this is a more recent development in drafting strategy. Thanks!
Keith Law: No, this is somewhat new for me, after I looked at the data while writing The Inside Game and realized just how significant the differences between classes of players were. It’s not just a scouting axiom; high school pitchers really are way riskier.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I’m still not 100% sure what I’ll be doing during the draft itself, but I’ll be at the Futures Game on Sunday and will make myself available on the concourse some time between the end of BP and the first pitch, plus I’ll be at the Tattered Cover on Monday at noon MT for a talk and book signing. I hope to see many of you there!