→ February 22, 2018
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Abacus: Small Enough to Jail.

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, a documentary by Steve James (Hoop Dreams) that originally aired on PBS’s Frontline, earned one of the five nominations for Best Documentary Feature at this year’s Oscars. The film follows Abacus, the only bank to face criminal prosecution in the wake of the 2008 mortgage crisis, through the subsequent trial, largely from the perspective of the Sung family, who founded and still run the small neighborhood bank, based in Manhattan’s Chinatown. The resulting picture is one of politically-motivated prosecution of a non-white institution, of whom the overly ambitious Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance, Jr., could make an example, while getting himself in front of the cameras. You can stream the film for free on PBS’s site, or via Amazon Prime.

Abacus Federal Savings Bank discovered in 2010-11 that one of its loan officers had submitted several loan applications with false information – such as forged employment info or inflated income claims – and had skimmed money from some clients, so they reported the violations to the Office of Thrift Supervision themselves, fired the offending loan officer, and began examining other loans he’d made. Despite the self-reporting, the Manhattan DA’s office chose in 2012 to indict the bank and its officers on over 200 counts related to mortgage fraud, including grand larceny, threatening the group with jail time, fines, and the potential closure of the bank. The Sung family, who founded the bank in 1984, chose to fight all charges; one of their daughters quit her job in the DA’s office and went to work on her family’s defense. Their defense included evidence that the offending loan officers had taken steps to hide their misdeeds from executives, that the loans in question still performed, and that their decision to report themselves showed they were not engaged in any systematic attempt to defraud Fannie Mae, which purchased many of the loans in question.

The Sungs are the stars of Abacus, of course, and their dismay and indignation power the film. It’s clear from the start that the family members involved in the bank saw no choice but to fight the charges, recognizing that even a generous plea agreement might ruin the company, and in the film they repeatedly emphasize what the bank means to the Chinese community in which it operates. Tom Sung, a co-founder of the bank and the family patriarch, recounts the difficulty Chinese entrepreneurs would have in obtaining loans from white-owned banks that were perfectly happy to take those same customers’ deposits. Along with community activist Don Lee (who has a politician’s coiffure) and several reporters who covered the case, the Sungs describe the different norms of the Chinese business world, and how American rules that might target mortgage fraud also made it harder for immigrants to obtain such loans, even if their income was legitimate and their default rates were extremely low. (Abacus claims a 0.5% default rate on mortgages it originates; the national rate for serious delinquency reached 4.9% in 2010 and dropped to a ten-year low of 1.1% last year.)

Vance and Polly Greenberg, who served as chief of the DA’s Major Economic Crimes division from 2012 to 2015, both appear in the film to their own detriment, as they come off in the final product as vindictive and unapologetic despite evidence that they put extremely unreliable witnesses on the stand, possibly suborning perjury in the process. (The film was made before revelations that Vance declined to prosecute Harvey Weinstein for sexual assault around the time that Weinstein contributed to Vance’s campaign.) Their star witness, in particular, lied repeatedly under oath and eventually had his plea deal revoked as a result of his false testimony. It’s entirely possible that James isn’t showing enough of the prosecution’s side of the case, although given his reputation and the ultimate outcome of the trial, I am inclined to give him and the film the benefit of the doubt. At the absolute least, Vance and Greenberg failed in their duty to do sufficient due diligence on their key witnesses, and that opens them up to charges of malicious, racially-motivated prosecution. Vance Jr. was unopposed in the November election, which is too bad, as Abacus would make a fine campaign film for anyone running against him.

I’ve seen three of the five nominees for this category now, with Netflix’s Strong Island downloaded for my next flight, and Faces Places due out on DVD at least on March 6th (after the awards … this is so stupid; if you’re nominated and can’t get into theaters, put it out to stream right away, I am trying to give you my money). Abacus is the best made of the three documentaries I’ve seen, but lacks the emotional punch of Last Men in Aleppo or the holy-crap aspects of the more timely Icarus. FiveThirtyEight’s Walt Hickey has pointed out that this year’s slate of nominees is extremely weird anyway.

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→ February 21, 2018
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A Fantastic Woman.

A Fantastic Woman (Una mujer fantástica), Chile’s submission for this year’s Academy Award for Best Foreign Language Film and one of the five nominees, is notable simply for its casting: A trans woman plays a trans woman who happens to be the film’s main character. Daniela Vega delivers a tour de force performance as Marina, the fantastic woman of the movie’s title, a woman whose life is suddenly turned upside down when her cis male lover dies suddenly, putting her in conflict with the man’s estranged family – most of whom refuse to accept her for what she is.

Marina is a nightclub singer who by all external appearances is a woman, but whose status as transgender appears to be known by everyone she encounters, even characters who should be complete strangers to her. She and Orlando, a somewhat older, genteel man, have an unremarkable, romantic relationship, where she has just moved in with him and he surprises her for her birthday with plans for an exotic vacation together. This all goes right to hell when he dies suddenly and his ex-wife and son enter the picture, complete with their bigotry, hatred, and threats of violence, all of which show how they don’t even see her as human, let alone as a woman. The movie documents her refusal to surrender to them, and society as a whole, even in the face of physical attacks and a system that dehumanizes her at every turn.

Vega is remarkable in a role that demands that she go through numerous events that I would imagine would trigger awful memories for any trans person (and perhaps any non-binary person, period). Because Orlando falls down the stairs while Marina goes to get the car keys to rush him to the hospital, the authorities assume that she was a prostitute who’d fought back when a client assaulted her, or that she even assaulted him for reasons unknown. There’s an early scene where a doctor and a police officer refer to her in the third person, as if she’s not even there, using male pronouns, even though – again – you wouldn’t think she was trans even after talking to her for a few minutes. (I found this a bit confusing; perhaps the doctor looked at her neck, but that wouldn’t occur to an ordinary person.) Later, Orlando’s son, who proves the most bigoted of all, asks if she’s had “the surgery” (I think Laverne Cox made it clear to everyone that it’s not an appropriate question) and asks the most dehumanizing question of all, “What are you?” Her answer – “I’m flesh and blood, just like you” – and his inability to respond to it spell out the constant fight that trans people face in a society full of people who, frankly, are just too damn obsessed with other people’s sex lives.

This is a star-making turn from Vega, although she dominates so much of the film that there’s little room for anyone else. (Why she wasn’t nominated for Best Actress is beyond me; she’d be a worthy winner, and deserved it over at least two of the nominees.) Gabo, Orlando’s brother, played by Luis Gnecco (star of 2016’s Neruda, Chile’s submission to the Oscars last year), is the most three-dimensional of the other characters, showing uncommon empathy for Marina and the mere willingness to use female pronouns for her. The script, co-written by director Sebastián Lelio and Gonzalo Maza, doesn’t dispense with these characters lightly, but their appearances in the film are a function of their relationship to and interactions with Marina. They’re real because the dialogue feels real, because the treatment she gets at the hands of almost every single person she meets is exactly what you would expect in a majority-Catholic country that only recognized gay marriages in 2017.

Transgender characters have had extremely poor representation in film; other than Boys Don’t Cry, Dallas Buyers Club, and The Danish Girl, all of which featured cis actors in trans roles, major films that have featured trans characters have largely done so for shock value or comic effect. A Fantastic Woman features a trans character, played by a trans woman, in a story that is about everyday life as a trans person in an intolerant society – but in a way that can be interpreted more broadly, too, to capture that feeling of being utterly alone, of feeling unsafe in your own skin, and of the need to find something that helps define you for yourself as opposed to the way that others define you.

I still have Loveless and The Insult to see of the five nominees for Best Foreign Language Film, but Sony Classics has been so slow to roll Loveless, a Russian film that won the Jury Prize at Cannes last year, that I may not catch it before the Oscars.

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→ February 20, 2018
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Loving Vincent.

One of the five nominees for this year’s Academy Award for Best Animated Feature (along with the modern classic that is Boss Baby), Loving Vincent stands out primarily for its appearance: It is the first animated film made from hand-painted frames, in this case done with oil paints on canvas. The conceit was to tell a story about Vincent Van Gogh that used his style and even images from his paintings as the background, while actors portrayed the various characters in front of green screens and were painted into the frames. The 94-minute film comprises over 65,000 frames, each its own painting, created by over 120 painters, while the story comes from letters recovered after Van Gogh’s suicide and the subsequent death of his brother, Theo. The plot here is a bit thin, although the work by the actors – who are more than just voice actors here – elevates what story we get. If you appreciate the visual aspects of animated films, though, you won’t be able to take your eyes off the screen. (It’s on iTunes and amazon.)

The story begins a year or so after Van Gogh’s death, when the Postman Joseph Roulin asks his son Armand (Douglas Booth) to deliver a letter from Van Gogh to his brother and patron, Theo, that was somehow lost but serves as the last letter he wrote before he took his own life. The quest to find Theo turns into a deeper interest in learning what happened to Vincent in the last few months of his life, and why a person who claimed six weeks earlier to be in great spirits decided to end his own life. Armand, who’s a bit credulous to be entirely credible here, bounces around like a sort of soft-boiled detective, visiting the guest house where Van Gogh stayed and the doctor who treated him for his depression and, later, who saw him after he’d shot himself. The mystery aspect here – at one point, Armand becomes convinced Van Gogh was shot by someone else, perhaps in a prank gone wrong, and was covering for the culprit – isn’t compelling at all, since there isn’t any real doubt that Van Gogh 1) was suicidal and 2) shot himself, but the story here is the means to the end of walking us through a tour of Van Gogh’s output.

I went into this knowing almost nothing about the works of Van Gogh, and decided to leave any further reading until after I watched it lest I spoil some aspect of the film. The poster for the film uses his 1889 Self-portrait, but you’ll see many of his most famous works as backdrops for critical scenes; I spotted The Night Café, Wheat Field with Cypresses, Wheat field with Crows, The Town Hall at Auvers, The Sower (at the end), and Café Terrace at Night (the opening scene). The filmmakers also used Van Gogh’s paintings to ‘design’ the characters, most of whom are based on real people Van Gogh painted, with other characters created from his paintings. Some of the likenesses are remarkable, especially Jerome Flynn (Bronn in Game of Thrones) as Dr. Gachet, although there was really little they could do here to make Saoirse Ronan look like anyone but herself.

Because the story itself is so slight, Loving Vincent is more of an achievement than a great film; there’s never been a movie that looked like this, and it subtly introduces some of the audience to the works of one of the most important painters in western history, several of whose paintings have sold for nine figures. (Only one of Van Gogh’s paintings sold during his life, out of the 800-plus he painted.) It’s a gorgeous film to watch, and the leisurely pace of the plot fits the content; you’re meant to savor and even examine these backdrops, not to just focus on the action or dialogue. But that also means it’s not a film for everybody; I’m probably on the outer fringes of the audience for this movie, because I know nothing about art and don’t feel like I even appreciate it like most art fans and collectors would. I can say, however, that I understand Van Gogh’s style more now having seen the movie, and would at least be able to identify some of his works as his, which is more than I would take home from most movies I see.

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→ February 19, 2018
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Otys.

Otys is a new-ish midweight strategy board game from Asmodee’s Libellud imprint, released here right around the holidays, and the first title from designer Claude Lucchini. It’s a sort of futuristic deep sea-diving themed game, where players try to gather resources to complete contracts, and must manipulate two sets of tiles to be able to make moves. There might be a better game in here somewhere, but I found it rather overdesigned, and the mechanics aren’t well-connected to the theme.

In Otys, two to four players each work with a player board that has six tokens, numbered one through five plus a neutral “X” token, and eight diver tiles, each of which has a different ability. The board has slots for the numbered tokens, and then a column where you randomly stack the diver tiles in a way that has five of them adjacent to the five numbered slots. On a turn, you will pick one of the numbered tiles, slide it to the right, use one of the five “sponsor” tiles from the central board to get something (a credit, a battery, the right to use your diver’s skill twice, etc.), and then use the ability of the adjacent diver. Four of the divers get you specific resources. The others let you add abilities like gaining a new contract card only you can complete or trading credits for resources.

The contracts come in two forms. The game has four resources – white, green, blue, and black, which I think mean actual things like plants and water, but it really doesn’t matter to the mechanics – and some contracts simply require you gather two to four specific resources to fulfill them, gaining points and sometimes a credit or battery token. The other contracts tell you to acquire specific combinations of any resources – so, two of one type, two of another, and one of a third – where you get to pick the colors, and then have similar rewards.


The Otys board; diver tiles are in the center column.

The big catch in Otys, and the only mechanic here that I thought was novel, is that each token/diver row on your player board has a storage space for resources, and to fill a contract, you must have all the right resources in one specific storage space. The spaces can hold three to six resources, but in practical terms, you’re going to use maybe two of them heavily, because gaining resources in all of your storage areas will leave you unable to ever fill contracts. You can also add tokens via one diver (the ‘explorer’) that let you pay two credits, take one resource or victory point or battery now, and then place that token on its other face next to a storage area, providing you with a permanent bonus whenever you fill a contract from that area. The divers are also double-sided, with each bringing an ‘upgraded’ side that lets you invoke its power for one fewer credit or that gives you something else in addition to the single resource.

The numbered ‘key’ tokens must be placed in the ‘hacker’ track below your board after they’re used; you can only bring them back up when the track is filled, which at the start of the game would mean using all of your tokens at least once before using them again. You get one X token to place in any row where you’ve already used the key, and there’s a way – very poorly described in the English rules – to acquire more X tokens from the central supply. This mechanic felt trite, reminiscent of games from Puerto Rico and San Juan to last year’s Entropy, where you have to use all or most of your roles and then ‘reset’ your hand, and the combination of this mechanic and the diver one – when you use a diver, s/he has to ‘resurface’ by going to the top of the queue, with everyone above him/her moving down a spot – just made the game overly complex.

The game ends when anyone gets to 18 points, after which you finish the round so everyone can try to complete one more contract. In practice, that means 3-4 contracts plus the random point or two you’ll add along the way, and it does play in about an hour. The theme has almost nothing to do with the game, and there are way too many restrictions and twists here for me to enjoy the experience. I wish more effort had gone into streamlining the rules, even if it came at the cost of some of the artwork or component design.

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→ February 18, 2018
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Startide Rising.

My reaction to the Padres’ absurd deal with Eric Hosmer is up for Insiders.

David Brin’s Startide Rising is the second book in his Uplift universe, where sentient species across the galaxy (and beyond, I think) have used genetic engineering to bring “client” species to sentience themselves, in exchange for a period of indentured servitude to the patron class lasting something on the order of 100,000 years. Humans in this universe have themselves uplifted chimpanzees and dolphins but done so outside of the established order, granting their clients equal status in a shorter period of time, which has upset some of the most powerful patron races who prefer the status quo. It won Brin the first of his two Hugo Awards for Best Novel, along with The Uplift War (which I read in October), the third book in the series; this book also won the Locus and Nebula awards. It’s just not as good as the latter novel, by which point Brin seems to have improved his storycraft and his character development. And it’s really held back by the whole thing with dolphins flying spaceships.

The action of Startide Rising all takes place on one planet, Kithrup, that has no native sentient species, and is mostly covered by water. (We learn later in the book that an earlier sentient species was granted residency here to live out its senescent years, but is presumed extinct.) A dolphin-piloted vessel, the Streaker, has landed here, with a crew of all three Earth species, to hide out from galactic forces chasing it in the wake of its discovery of an enormous ghost fleet of spaceships that herald the discovery of a previously unknown, long-extinct race that may have been the fabled Progenitors of many or all current sentient species, including humans. While a fierce battle is waged overhead, the Streaker‘s crew must repair their damaged ship and await rescue or plot a dangerous escape, while some members fight internally over the best route and others explore the relatively unscathed planet.

Whereas the multi-threaded plot of the longer Uplift War involved multiple, three-dimensional characters, and created some believable tension in both action sequences and in the slower-burning intrigues, Startide Rising employs a too-large cast of disposable heroes, none of whom is interesting and some of whom verge on the ridiculous. (Among them: Charles Dart, the neo-chimp scientist whose ruthless commitment to research makes him a Spock-like caricature; and the dolphin whose name I forget who spends most of the novel sexually harassing a human crew member, which I think Brin intended to be humorous.) The novel’s very short chapters and constant shifts in perspective don’t help the narrative build any momentum, and the discovery in Kithrup’s oceans that eventually becomes a key part of the resolution is just not well written or explained.

But the bigger problem I had is the dolphins … which are still sea creatures, last time I checked. Brin jumps through all kinds of hoops to explain their presence, and I can at least suspend my disbelief in their evolution to intelligent, self-aware creatures. But they’re dolphins flying spaceships. I can accept a lot of things in science fiction, but I read this book with Tommy Shaw’s line from the Styx episode of Behind the Music stuck in my head. Shaw said he “just couldn’t write songs about robots.” Yeah, well, I just can’t get on board with dolphins – 12-13 feet long, 350 or so pounds, and, you know, without arms or legs – flying spaceships. Normally I’d say reading any series in order is an asset, but if you’re interesting in Brin at all, just skip to The Uplift War, which is better in every way and doesn’t include any dolphin characters at all.

Next up: Joe Haldeman’s Forever Peace.

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→ February 17, 2018
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Stick to baseball, 2/17/18.

My one new piece for Insiders this week covered the top 30 prospects for this year’s MLB Draft, in advance of yesterday’s opening night in Division 1. And I held a Klawchat on Thursday. Unfortunately I did not recover enough from whatever ailment I had this week to make the trip to Myrtle Beach, but hope to be on the road next weekend.

I reviewed the board game Seikatsu, one of my daughter’s new favorites, here this week, with another review hitting Paste‘s site next week. Also, I never tweeted this link at all, but reviewed the Romanian-language film Graduation, from Oscar-nominated director Cristian Mungiu, on Wednesday.

Smart Baseball comes out in paperback on March 13th! Some readers have reported difficulty finding the hardcover version in stores, but it is still available on amazon at the moment.

And now, the links…

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→ February 16, 2018
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Seikatsu.

Seikatsu was one of my honorable mentions on my list of the top ten games of 2017, maybe the best-looking game I played last year with gorgeous artwork and solid, heavy tokens. It’s listed as a game for 1 to 4 players, but really works best with 3 and fairly well with 2, not with the other counts.

Seikatsu calls itself “a game of perspective,” which is true for the final scoring, which accounts for the bulk of the points in the game. You score two ways in Seikatsu: once when you place a token on each turn, and then once for each row on the hexagonal board at the end of the game – but the rows you score depend on where you sit, so each player scores those rows (or columns, if you want to get all pedantic about it) differently. The result is a fast-moving game that asks you to balance two different scoring methods with every turn, but that keeps those turns short because your options are finite and it’s not that hard to figure out an optimal move.

The tokens in Seikatsu each show a bird and a ring of flowers, which correspond to the two scoring methods. You can place a token anywhere adjacent to another token or the neutral center space, and you score 1 point for that token plus another point for each adjacent token with the same bird image on it. In theory, you could score a maximum of 7 points, but in practice you’ll get 1 to 3 each turn and maybe luck into a 4 once every other game or so. There are four koi pond tokens that function as wild cards; you can place one and name any bird type to score it, after which the tile no longer scores as any bird type for tokens placed adjacent to it.

The flowers come into play at the end of the game. There are pagodas on three vertices of the board, each of which corresponds to one player’s perspective for scoring, splitting the board into seven columns unique to that player. In each column (or row … I’ll stop that now), the player identifies the flower type that appears on the most tokens, and scores points based on that number – 1 point for a single token, then 3, 6, 10, 15, and 21 points for the maximum possible number of six tokens with the same flower type. Koi pond tiles are wild again in this stage, and each player can assign whatever flower type s/he wants to those tiles.

Seikatsu is ideal with three players; with two, it’s a little easier to work the board independently until the last few moves, whereas with three you can’t plan ahead as easily. You only get two tokens in your hand each turn, so long-range planning is just not part of the game, but with two players you can set up your rows of flowers with less interference from other players. We’ve found that with two players, the scores are extremely close – we’ve tied once and never had a margin of victory over 5 points. That makes it a great game for a parent to play with a child, because it’s hard for the parent to run away with the game and thus doesn’t require playing ‘down’ to the younger player’s level. With four players, it’s “team” play, which I don’t think works very well; there’s a solitaire mode I haven’t tried. Seikatsu lists for $40, which I think reflects the high quality of the components but is a bit dear for this type of game; now that it’s been on the market for six months, though, I’m seeing it for under $30 (e.g., $28 on amazon) which is just right.

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→ February 15, 2018
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Klawchat 2/15/18.

My preseason ranking of the top 30 prospects for this year’s draft is now up for Insiders.

Keith Law: Klawchat. You can forget all future plans.

addoeh: “Thoughts & Prayers” isn’t working. Maybe we should try something else.
Keith Law: They’re a renewable resource, though.

Dr. Bob: As Spring Training opens, I expect you to be in the best shape of your life.
Keith Law: I have a cold and I’ve been to the gym twice since New Year’s. So I might be in the worst shape of my life.

Matt: You noted in the draft prospects article its a deep draft, but not top heavy. In your opinion, did the Phillies make a mistake in signing Carlos Santana which caused them to lose their high 2nd rd pick?
Keith Law: I don’t think it was a mistake, but I think it was a cost to consider in the signing.

Davey Boy: Is this a do or die season for Blake Swihart? Can he be a utility type guy at the major league level?
Keith Law: I don’t generally care for the idea of a do-or-die or make-or-break season, and I don’t think it applies to Swihart. If he’s healthy, he will have value. He was a decent infielder in HS – I saw him play third – and I think he’d be able to handle second or third in the majors. Maybe he’s Austin Barnes.

Dan: If you could make a player have one 80 and the rest of his tools 40-50. Which one would you make 80?
Keith Law: If you’re an 80 hitter, nothing else really matters.

Jon: Thoughts on Mike Ford? Does he have a chance to stick with the Mariners all year?
Keith Law: Non prospect. Maybe the final guy on a bench.

Joe: Keith, I feel like Tyler Wade is getting completly overlooked with the Yankees. Would you be confident having him start the season as the starter at second?
Keith Law: He’s getting overlooked? I feel like I’m asked about him constantly – and yes, I think he’s someone’s regular, if perhaps not the Yankees’ because of Andujar and Gleyber.

Doddy King: Texas and Anaheim are both indicating that they are looking at going with six man rotations, with Texas apparently also considering two reliever-to-starter candidates (Bush and Minor) as part of their move. Do you think this is a one- (or two-) off thing, or will more teams explore a six man rotation going forward?
Keith Law: I’m not sure that we know at all if that’ll help reduce pitching injuries, although I’m open to any kind of experiments like this. I do think both of those guys are enormous injury risks as starters, though, and would have kept them in the bullpen.

Dana: Goose Gossage is a jerk, but he seems to have a good point that he was more valuable than most of today’s relievers b/c he pitched multiple innings, right?
Keith Law: Yeah, but he’s right for the wrong reasons. He was more valuable because he threw more innings. He thinks he was more valuable because he did it.

Andy: Why does the government never get anywhere on gun control? If the democrats win Presidency and take control of Congress will something get done?
Keith Law: Money. Why can’t Flint, Michigan get clean drinking water? Money. Why are we still using so much coal despite the pollution it causes? Money. Why doesn’t any government agency do anything to crack down on overprescriptions of opioids? Money. Something like 2/3 of Americans support an assault weapons ban, but the power of money in our system trumps that of the popular vote.

Carlos: Julio Pablo Martinez seems likely to sign with a team at some point. I’ve read he has a good blend of power and speed. Is he a guy to watch? Would he have ranked on your top 100 list if eligible? What are your overall thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Not a top 100 guy. Maxed out, smaller & less athletic than Robert (they played together).

Patrick: My only quibble about these chats, Keith…not knowing the lyric that will lead them off when the queue is posted!
My question–what’s the furthest/most remote you have traveled to see a prospect (HS, Minors, not counting Sidd Finch?)
Keith Law: Jarrod Parker: flew to Chicago, drove 3 hours to Kendallville IN. Braxton Garrett was close: flew to Nashville, drove 2+ to Auburn, AL, then drove 3+ to Atlanta that night (very bad idea).

Tom Hendry: Why do you think so much negative coverage is directed at the free agent player’s camp?
Keith Law: Fans bizarrely support billionaire owners over players, arguing that the latter are “greedy.” (Not too dissimilar from people outside the top tax bracket who argue that the top 1% of income earners should get to keep more of their income, even though it doesn’t help them and may be worse for long-term economic growth.) And the media don’t help by carrying more water for front offices (where they have more sources) than for players/agents.

AJ: Hi Keith. On the whole, I was pretty happy with what Hahn did as far as rebuilding the farm system. The one knock that I did see was that he almost completely gambled on upside and didn’t hedge his bet with any “higher floor” guys. What is your opinion? Also, how soon can you see the ChiSox being a playoff contender? Is 2019 too soon? Thanks.
Keith Law: I think 2020 is more realistic, but if a few of the pitchers come on this year, that would accelerate it. We’ll get a full season of Giolito in the rotation, probably full seasons of Lopez and Fulmer somewhere on the roster (I still think both are more likely relievers), the debut of Kopech, maybe a late late callup for Hansen … that will all go a long way to telling us how far away they are.

Tom Hendry: The Orioles are piling up high with fringe MLB ready catchers. Do they have a growing concern that Chance Sisco cannot catch?
Keith Law: Or maybe Buck has decided he doesn’t like Sisco for some unknown reason? I can think of 20 other teams that would love to take him off Baltimore’s hands.

Dan. : Caden Lemons and Blayne Enlow both look like high upside projection arms from the recent draft. Are they similarly projectable or different in a significant way? If so, how?
Keith Law: Not similar at all; Enlow’s more athletic, better put together, more likely to stay healthy. Lemons had some medical questions post-draft and has more present velocity with less of a breaking ball.

Bored Lawyer, Esq. : Any college series you have your eye on this weekend? Vandy-Duke should be a fun one
Keith Law: Vandy doesn’t have anyone major for this year’s draft, so not that one; I’m hoping to go to the Coastal Carolina tournament but I’ve been sick all week.

DR: As a guy who does a lot to raise the public consciousness on data driven baseball analysis, are there any traits among the recently “woken” smart fans that grate you a bit? For me, rote invocation of WAR as the be all/end all stat gets immediately annoying. Such trait is rather prevalent, I feel.
Keith Law: I think that’s a weak generalization … I see more people complaining that others use WAR as a be-all and end-all than I see actual people using it as such. I’m more bothered by new-stat cherrypicking – hey, we have a new toy, let’s use it to the exclusion of other things we’ve learned or ignore the lack of data telling us how meaningful such a stat is. My favorite was the Mets fan arguing with me that Michael Cuddyer was a good signing because of his exit velocity. That didn’t work out so well.

Rob: It seems obvious to me that public opinion is with ownership over the players on issues of baseball economics. Do you think this is true? How important is it? What kind of PR campaign would it take to equalize matters? I’m not just talking about the slow offseason but about how fans in a number of markets seemed condition to accept what seem to me to be artificial limits on payroll. Sorry for the long question; thanks for the chat.
Keith Law: I’d talk up how rich owners are.

A dude: Can Trammell eventually be a 20 HR guy at the big league level? His ceiling seems a bit unknown, was wondering if that’s because it’s actually that high or due to him having less exposure to the sport than others.
Keith Law: 20 HR seems fair. 30 might be stretching it, ignoring the Reds’ home park and the juiced ball.

Parent trying to learn: Ok keith i need help with this hypothetical. MN arm played at small school. 5’11 215. As a rhp 94-97 fb, 60 curve, 60 slider, 60 change, 30 control, 20 command. Really violent delivery. As a CF 60 hit 70 Power 55/60 run 50 defense in CF 80 arm. Is he a rhp or cf? Where in the draft?
Keith Law: Dude with 20 command is never going to be a major-league pitcher.

Adam: What are your thoughts on Luis Campusano and Blake Hunt, the two Catchers taken by the Padres in the early part of last year’s draft? Neither seem to be appearing on ANY list of Catcher rankings.
Keith Law: Campusano was #17 on my Padres org ranking in a very deep system, so I don’t understand the question. Hunt is much further behind.

Jim876jj: How much has the shine worn off on Meadows? Is it due to the lack of power or frustration with durability/worries he’ll struggle with durability throughout his career?
Keith Law: Doesn’t stay healthy and doesn’t put the ball in the air enough. That’s been a problem for a number of Pirates prospects – he, Hayes, and Newman all show you more power in BP than any have ever shown in games.

James: Hey Keith, any hope that Odor returns to at least being an average player again?
Keith Law: Slim but nonzero.

Andrew: Why is it that in basketball, it’s either you have it or you don’t in terms of work ethic while in baseball, you can learn it overtime (Trevor Rosenthal) for example?
Keith Law: Hm. I feel like there might be some substantial difference between the pools of players under discussion here.

Shonna: My husband and I picked up 7 Ronin after your recommendation. It’s been a staple of our gaming rotation since then, but I was wondering if you and your wife have the same problem we have. Namely that the ninjas win a huge percentage of the time, I get that it’s an assymetric game but any ways to make it a little bit more fair?
Keith Law: We haven’t run into that problem; I think we were close to 50/50 (although we haven’t played it in a while, just because I get so many new games). The ninjas have to win early; it’s a war of attrition for the samurai player.

WarBiscuit: Thoughts on the new minor league team that will be in Madison Alabama? The government is pending approval on the 46 million dollar new stadium. Although I live in Mobile where the Baybears live, the management is very terrible, the stadium is outdated and there is a bunch of infrastructure problems like leaking pipes under the field, which causes rain delays when it rains in the morning, yet sunny in the evening when they have the game, and leaking AC’s, and other stuff that’s too long to mention, so I don’t blame the team for moving out of Mobile where there is little attendance.
Keith Law: It is incredibly stupid to spend public money on sports stadiums for privately-owned teams. But this is Alabama, a state where 1 in 4 residents is functionally illiterate, and that nearly put a pedophile who has openly flouted the Constitution on several occasions into the Senate.

YanksFan: Why do you think Chance Adams ends up as a reliever? He’s succeeded at every level. And keep in mind, you said the same about Severino. Also, have you watched The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel yet???
Keith Law: Keep in mind, I said the same about Dellin Betances. And Adam Warren. And Tyler Thornburg. And by the way Severino was awful in 2016 before he had his one good year as a starter to date. Adams is nothing like Severino beyond their employer; he’s short, doesn’t have a plus pitch, and doesn’t have the command to get away with the stuff he does have turning a lineup over 3x.

Cal: Keith, what would you tell a 22 year old college kid that has no clue what he wants to do career wise? I have interests and while my major interests me, none of the careers within that major peak my interest. When you were in college, did you pick a major because it interested you, or did you pick it because a certain job interested you and to get said job, you needed this major? Parents seem to think money is way more important than doing something I like, which doesn’t help. I’d love to get your take on this, Keith. I’m honestly at a loss here and don’t know what to do/where to go.
Keith Law: I picked a job because everyone else around me was going for the same kind of job and it was very good money for a 21-year-old. I didn’t like the job and floated through a few careers before falling ass-backwards into this one. So my advice probably isn’t going to be very good.

Byron: Have you heard anything from international scouts about Alexander Canario? A lot of stats-only projection systems rate his potential as very high but I don’t think I’ve seen one actual scouting report on him
Keith Law: I would not consider anything a “stats-only projection system” said about a player who has only played in the DSL.

TP: When should we expect an announcement that you have joined the Athletic? In all seriousness, your work is the only reason I still subscribe to insider.
Keith Law: I appreciate that.

Chris: when you evaluate a prospect how much weight is given to his ability to tolerate dry humping?
Keith Law: That Callaway quote was great – especially because he was right, and that alone made him an enormous improvement over Collins.

tyler: You have said that you would vote for Mo for the HOF. Is he really going to be one of the ten best on the ballot?
Keith Law: Yes. Or I wouldn’t vote for him.

Hank: What % chance do you think Derek Hill has to hit well enough to be a big league regular?
Keith Law: 40% chance or more. Doesn’t have to hit that much to be one given his defense.

Grant: Great draft list. Are you attending either the Perfect Game or Under Armour events this year?
Keith Law: I have no idea – those are in July and August and I don’t even have spring training trips booked yet.

Larry: I get you’re not a fan of Singers arm action but doesn’t the upside justify the risk? There are a lot of very successful leaders w slot guys in MLB.
Keith Law: What upside? I saw him 90-91 last April vs Kyle Wright with a flat slider. How many MLB starters have a slot or arm action like his? Sale and … um … let me know.

Noah: What do you think Gleyber Torres’ full time position will be, long term?
Keith Law: In a vacuum, shortstop.
Keith Law: Of course, in a vacuum, he’d be dead.

Patrick: Keith, did you have a favorite baseball player growing up?
Keith Law: Willie Randolph.

Learner: Have you heard of benjamin reinhard class of 2021?
Keith Law: If such a player even exists, I don’t want to hear about him until June of 2020.

Rod: Keith – I know the constant whining on Twitter can get irritating, but what’s with yoir disingenuous “I prefer to get paid for my labor” retort? Tons of writers get paid and their work isn’t behind a paywall. Just be honest, if that’s how you prefer to operate.
Keith Law: Nothing disingenuous about it. What I earn has always been a function of the revenue I generate for my employer. That’s how the world works.

Todd: If healthy, Clarke Schmidt Yankees a legit top of the rotation starter one day?
Keith Law: No.

David : Hi Keith – Theo said after the Cubs signed Morrow they’d treat him like wade Davis (1 inning; come in if warmed up) treatment to keep him healthy. If this contributes to staying healthy (vs a lot of up and downs) why not make this the rule instead of the exception. Perhaps any loss in situational value could be made up in increased effectiveness and health over the course of the season.
Keith Law: I have a hypothesis that it’s less the up-and-downs and more the back-to-back-to-back days that lead to reliever breakdowns. Better to throw 2 innings today and not throw again for 3 days than to throw one inning three days in a row?

Joe: Why does JD Martinez believe he is worth over $20m per season and Hosmer think he deserves 8 years?
Keith Law: Deserves? Or just wants? There’s a difference; the first is a moral question, the latter a negotiating stance.

Jonathan: What would Shane McClanahan have to do this spring to be in the mix for top-5 pick?
Keith Law: He’s in my top 15; that would certainly mean he’s a possibility for the top 5, given how much baseball is left before the draft.

Santos: Fangraphs has Aaron Judge listed as 70 game power and 70 raw power. If he’s not 80, what’s the point?
Keith Law: I would rate his power at 80.

Jeff: The trait among the newly “woke” that bothers me the most is their tendency to act as if they weren’t late to the party when in fact, they arrived after the keg was already dry.
Keith Law: I like that analogy. Better than Prager’s claim on gravity, certainly.

Jonathan: Orioles send Hunter Harvey and 33rd pick in the draft to the Rays in exchange for Jake Odorizzi. Who says “no?”
Keith Law: Doubt the Orioles would do that.

Phil: Which gaming conventions are you planning to attend this year? I was bummed to miss you at PAX Unplugged.
Keith Law: That and Gen Con. Origins never works bc of the draft. Always possible I’ll do something semi-local if my schedule permits but nothing planned yet.

Beau: Read your top 30 this morning: how close is Cadyn Grenier to a 1st rd talent? Does he have any untapped upside?
Keith Law: I think if he hits – if he performs and answers questions about his hit tool – he’ll be a first rounder.

Todd: Did Luis Severino hurt you in some way? You seemingly have hate for the guy, and back in the day, even the 90s, top flight starters used to struggle early, guys like Smoltz were terrible early in their careers. Its ok to admit your wrong Keith
Keith Law: Grow up, Todd. #your

Dr. Bob: The Cardinals signed Mike Maddux to be their pitching coach to go a new direction and away from the Dave Duncan/Derek Liliquist approach. I think it’s a gutsy move, considering their success with pitchers. Do you have an opinion on Maddux?
Keith Law: He hasn’t had a great track record with young pitchers so far, which would concern me given how guys like Flaherty, Weaver, maybe Hudson will all be expected to contribute in St. Louis this year.

AJ: Speaking of Sale, I know when he first came up you weren’t sure of him sticking as a starter because of his arm slot (or maybe I am mis-remembering). What has allowed him (and other lower arm slot starters) to stick? Development of a change up?
Keith Law: Also had a grade 35 slider in college. The White Sox shifted his hand position without truly altering his slot – although it was his delivery with its high elbow in back that bothered me more than just the slot – to allow him to get on top of the ball. Within about 18 months it went from a below-average pitch to a grade 70.

Scott Boras: Can Beer be more than a DH for an American League team?
Keith Law: Probably 1b. Would help his cause if he showed he could play average defense in LF.

Nick: Surprised to see Swaggerty ranked so high. Does he have a high enough upside to be a top 5 pick? Do you see him as a Jacoby Ellsbury type (the good version)?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t have ranked him there if I didn’t think he had that upside. One of the best pure hit tools in the draft with speed and a chance to profile as a good CF.

Jay: Did you play baseball video games growing up? If so, what was your favorite?
Keith Law: Lots of them. MicroLeague, Earl Weaver, Hardball…

Kwame : Is there anything the average fan can take away from spring training or is it all propaganda?
Keith Law: It’s just health. I ignore everything else. Remember the year Andy Oliver set Florida on fire? Gabe Gross hitting 8 HR in Dunedin one spring? Taijuan Walker’s almost-perfect spring training for Seattle? They’re facing inconsistent, uneven competition in scrimmage conditions. It’s not meaningful.

Chris: Why do people get so personally offended by your views on a player like Sevy. Why not just enjoy what he has become if you’re a fan of his? Life’s too short.
Keith Law: I have no idea. This is the one thing that perplexes my wife about my job above all else – why people get so mad (and, often, act so childishly) about baseball opinions.

John: Pretty random request, but is there a book/article you can recommend for me to share with friends/family who don’t see the link between hundreds of years of explicitly racist policy (primarily toward African-Americans) and the gargantuan gap that exists in general/overall equality today?
Keith Law: I didn’t love the documentary The 13th (on Netflix), because I thought it preached to the choir too much and was heavy-handed in a lot of places … but maybe that’s right for your audience.

Joe: Keith, do you have a general stance on manipulating service time for prospects? Is it only worth it for the tippy top guys (Bryant, Gleyber, etc.)? Should it vary by organization?
Keith Law: It is good business and bad for the industry. I would manipulate free agency in most cases, but wouldn’t waste time playing with the super-two date.

Andrew: Seems to me the changes to the draft and ifa’s created this tanking, I’d like to see it go back to being spend what you want. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I would too, but God forbid players get whatever the market will pay them. Especially those pesky non-American players, who earn less than their US/Canadian-born counterparts in the draft.

Chris: I had no idea Lazarito’s natural position was SS. I always assumed he was an OF. Other than the arm, which you mentioned doesn’t play, how does he look there? Does he have the footwork and actions to play there if the arm was stronger?
Keith Law: Played SS before signing, now in LF. Was never going to stay at short.

Brent: Sale was really an odd exception, similar to trying to scout a knuckleballer. His left elbow could contain alien dna, and I wouldn’t be terribly shocked.
Keith Law: I agree, but I’m happy to wear that one as a position I staked out strongly that was 100% wrong. It’ll happen again before I’m done.

Jonathan: Odds that Jorge Soler ever lives up to his potential?
Keith Law: If you tell me he’ll be healthy for a full season, I think he’ll produce like a regular.

JR : Have you played any/all of the Ticket to Ride spinoffs? Do they provide something that different from the original game that justifies the cost?
Keith Law: Europe for sure. They get a bit more involved from there. I have tried England, Nordics, Switzerland, and have the app expansion for Pennsylvania but haven’t tried it yet. I played France at PAX Unplugged with my daughter, and we liked it, but it does make the game longer.

Chris: Man, if people got as heated and passionate about gun reform and control as they did about 16-24 y/o baseball prospects, maybe we could like, I don’t know, do something important and beneficial for our society.
Keith Law: Indeed. Hang on, I’m just going to go play a board game.

Chris J: FYI, there’s a smallish gaming con in Aberdeen the first weekend in March, if you won’t be on the road. (GAD-CON).
Keith Law: (cancels all travel plans for that weekend)

Marshall MN: Is your game closet overflowing at this point? Do you keep all the ones you have played, or if they aren’t any good just give them to someone else?
Keith Law: I have sold a number of the review copies I’ve gotten and donated all of the proceeds to charity – I think I’m over $500 donated now, all to the Food Bank of Delaware or to hurricane relief for Puerto Rico and the USVI. I only have five games on the list for right now, but update it often: https://boardgamegeek.com/geekmarket/user/keithlaw (User pays the sale price + shipping, and then I donate all of that, including the shipping, to charity. So I make no money off this.) I have swapped some other games, donated some to a local school, given some to friends. I clearly have over 100 and I just don’t need that many.

Nordberg: If you could negotiate for the player’s union for the next CBA, what 2 things would you push for the most?
Keith Law: Raise the minimum salary to $1 million. Free agency after four years.

Chas: Have you checked out the Athletic? I like the names they’re bringing in, am fine paying for quality, but worry it’s a front-loaded thing that will get spun off and crack up in a year.
Keith Law: I subscribed the other day. The first piece I read was kind of lousy but I won’t judge them on just one look.

Nick: What type of upside do you project Andres Gimenez to have? Do you think he can be a starting SS and lead off hitter on a first division club?
Keith Law: That’s the hope. Would like to see a full year of progress & performance from him.

Chuck: What the heck are the Orioles doing?
Keith Law: A good question. I wonder if ownership has tied Duquette’s hands. Britton’s injury killed them too.

Patrick: Keith, I look at the improvements someone like Corbin Burnes made in the Brewers minor league system.
Would you avoid having him pitch in Colorado/AAA? Does he have anything left to prove in AA?
Keith Law: I would avoid that. Put him in the major league bullpen as a long reliever to start the year. Their rotation is really weak for a would-be contender anyway, and there will be an opening at some point. I’d rather see him pitch in the majors and struggle while making adjustments than pitching in Colorado Springs and struggle while losing his sanity.

Mr. Athletic: Thanks for the subscription. What other sites have you subscribed to?
Keith Law: I subscribe to the Washington Post & Baseball America. I cancelled my NY Times subscription on Monday after the Bret Stephens “stop smearing Woody Allen” piece. Certainly open to suggestions on worthwhile outlets – I believe in paying for content, obviously.

Andres : Thoughts on the new MGMT or Franz Ferdinand albums?
Keith Law: Never been an MGMT fan. The new FF album is shockingly bad. Thought the latest Wombats album was solid, not as good as Glitterbug. A little disappointed in Dream Wife’s LP. Next album to give some time to is Django Django’s latest.

Bill: Yankees fan here, but to be fair to you I think your concerns about Severino were about the ability for him to make it through multiple seasons given his windup. It’s only been one (very very) good year. I assume at this point, tho, obviously he should be left in rotation
Keith Law: I agree that he should be left there. It was that plus the lack of an average breaking pitch when he was in low-A and AA. He did improve his slider dramatically – I think he’s just throwing everything harder – between 2016 and 2017.

Rick C: Should the Braves just wait a couple weeks to call up Acuna, or wait until they can be sure they’ve passed the point where he’d become a super 2 player?
Keith Law: I think he’s ready, but there isn’t a great argument for bringing him north on Opening Day. So start him in triple-A with the idea – and him aware of this – that he’ll come up by May 1st if he rakes in AAA again. I hate super two manipulation because it assumes that 1) you know where the date will be 2) the process will not change in the interim and 3) the player will never be sent down again.

Harold: I work at an elementary school in a very low income, mostly minority area. We have dozens of strategies that strive to close the achievement gap while helping these kids understand what opportunities are out there for them. No matter what we do or how many grueling hours we spend with these kids, nothing seems to change. For every kid who we can reach and push toward higher achievement, there are dozens who never buy in or who get lost in the morass of their communities. What in the world can we do to get kids out of this cycle of despair?
Keith Law: Efforts to help a smaller number of people tend to be much more successful than similar sized/cost efforts to help a larger number of people in a less significant way. “End world hunger!” makes for good marketing for your charity, but it’s an impossible goal that reduces accountability too. “End hunger in this one village in Niger” is a lot less sexy when soliciting funds, but you have a chance to achieve that goal. It’s feasible. You can come up with plans and timelines that will allow for accountability back to donors and that can be altered on the fly if something isn’t working. And then, if it works, you move on to the next village. You will never, ever fix the problem at your entire school. But if you can take ten of those kids and get them on a path out of the cycle of poverty, then that’s a success, in spite of the kids you weren’t able to help … because you were never going to be able to help all of them anyway. Ten successes is better than none.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat. If I get to Myrtle Beach, I’ll say something on social media so folks can find me there. Thank you all for all of your questions and for reading!

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→ February 14, 2018
→ By

Graduation.

As a kid, I was always fascinated by maps, and especially by certain countries or parts of the world. Eastern Europe was one of those areas; the countries there all seemed more “foreign” because they were still behind the Iron Curtain (I’m old). Most of the people there speak Slavic languages that just sounded more different to my young ears, often written in different alphabets. Then you have Hungary, a country of non-Slavic people with a history and language unrelated to anyone else in Europe outside of Finland and Estonia (the latter of which wasn’t independent until I was in college), and its own complicated history of independence and subjugation. You had Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, two made-up countries resulting from international meddling and post-war treaties; neither exists any more, with Yugoslavia, at the time appearing to be the most moderate of Communist countries because its dictator, Tito, led the “non-aligned movement” of countries that declined to take sides in the Cold War. Yugoslavia comprised at least a dozen different ethnolinguistic groups, now split into seven independent countries, two of which have majority Muslim populations, two others of which speak the same language but use different alphabets for it and thus both claim they’re speaking something different. Czechoslovakia has been split into two countries, although there’s a historical third (Moravia) that appears to be gone for good. The Soviet Union itself subsumed at least nine independent countries in eastern Europe and the Caucasus, plus some short-lived entities like the Mountainous Republic of the Northern Caucasus.

And then there was Romania, another oddball in the region, the only language east of Italy where the primary language is from the Romance branch of the Indo-European language family; Romanian has evolved a more complex, Slavic-influenced grammar due to its geographic and political isolation from other Romance languages, but if you’re fluent in any of the latter you can probably gather the gist of written Romanian. Moldova, an independent country on Romania’s border, also has Romanian as its primary language, but they call it Moldovan and insist that it’s a distinct tongue. (To say nothing of the Gagauz.) Transylvania, which is totally a real place, is now part of Romania. They were briefly one of the Axis-allied nations in World War II, along with Hungary and Bulgaria, the latter of which had a real knack for picking the wrong side in world wars. The country featured the most dramatic and violent shift to democracy, executing its dictator and his equally corrupt wife on live television, and at one point appeared to have a nascent software industry that might lead to rapid economic development.

That didn’t happen, and if you wanted to know just how Romanians view their country right now, Christian Mungiu’s latest film, Graduation, paints a grim portrait where corruption is so woven into the societal fabric that nothing would function without it. Mungiu won the Palme d’Or and earned an Oscar nomination for Best Foreign Language film for 2007’s 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days, and was named co-winner of the Best Director Prize at Cannes in 2016 for this movie, which Romania did not choose for its annual submission to AMPAS. (His 2012 film, Beyond the Hills, was Romania’s submission that year and made the shortlist but not the final five.)

Graduation, which is streaming on Netflix, tells a small story to explain the big theme of the rot that institutionalized corruption has caused in Romanian society. Romeo Aldea is a successful doctor in a modest city in western Romania who returned from somewhere abroad with his wife in the hopes that Romania was developing into a modern society. Their daughter, Maria, is about to take a critical test to secure her scholarship to Cambridge University in England, but the morning before the exam, she’s attacked by a would-be rapist, injuring her arm (so she can’t write easily) and traumatizing her. Romeo, who was busy with his mistress when he received the call that Maria had been hurt, decides to play the system, moving a patient up the list for a liver transplant in exchange for having his daughter’s exam graded favorably enough to retain the scholarship.

Romeo is an unpleasant fellow who would probably bristle at such criticisms; he’s even praised at one point in the film for his spotless reputation and refusal to take bribes from patients in the past. He clearly thinks he’s doing what must be done for Maria, given that this is how Romania works and that other parents wouldn’t hesitate to call in favors or pay bribes to help their kids – especially to get their kids out of the dead-end cycle the film tells us is trapping everyday Romanians in a lower-class, hopeless life. A western education at a premium university is a ticket out, and even though Maria seems to be waffling in the wake of the attack and her commitment to her shiftless boyfriend Marius, Romeo commits himself to this path, convinced he’s doing the right thing even as the situation starts to worsen around him.

The entire movie seems to take place on cloudy days in a city where every color is some shade of gray and the dominant architectural aesthetic might charitably be described as communist chic. There’s construction, but to no apparent end, and the chaos of it creates the opportunity for Maria’s attacker. A minor subplot involves Romeo’s mistress’s young son, who has a disability and may do better in a specialized public school that has no openings because they’re all reserved for siblings of current students – or for those who have paid their way in. Another thread revolves around Romeo’s affair and how his wife reacts not to the infidelity itself, which she already knew about, but to Maria’s discovery of it. Romeo still seems unfazed by the changing attitudes of everyone around him, including his daughter’s own disdain for his attempts to use the system to benefit her, because he’s so thoroughly convinced of his own correctness. And while it’s easy to condemn him from the other side of the screen, what parent among us wouldn’t bend or break a rule to help our children?

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→ February 13, 2018
→ By

The Snow Queen.

Joan Vinge’s The Snow Queen won the Hugo and Locus Awards for best novel in 1981, a book that is now the first in a series of four novels set on the world of Tiamat, where people are split into two races (“clans”), Summers and Winters, and travel to and from this planet from elsewhere in the universe is interrupted for long periods by the path of Tiamat’s sun around a nearby black hole. This self-contained novel focuses less on the Queen herself than on the two cousins, Moon and Sparks, whose destinies are intertwined with that of the Queen and the impending change in power from Winter to Summer.

Arienhrod is the reigning Snow Queen, but her reign will end with the coming shift to Summers and the close of the portal to the rest of colonized space provided by the black hole (which Vinge treats as a sort of wormhole). To try to preserve her power, she implants various women in the kingdom with embryonic clones, one of which will survive to become Moon. Moon and Sparks are cousins and lovers from childhood, both of whom strive to become “sibyls,” mystics who can tap into an unknown source of universal knowledge by entering a trance state when asked, but only Moon is able to do so, creating the first crack in the relationship between the two. Their paths eventually diverge, where Moon ends up off-world and appears to be permanently separated from Sparks and the rest of Tiamat, while Sparks rises quickly to a position as Arienhrod’s lover and consigliere, known as “Starbuck,” putting him on a collision course with Moon when the latter returns to Tiamat (itself named for the Babylonian sea goddess) and discovers the truth behind the planet’s source of immortality serum.

Based both on the folktale later made into a fable by Hans Christian Anderson fable and on Robert Graves’ book-length essay The White Goddess, The Snow Queen works better on a metaphorical-fabulist level than as a work of straight narrative, as neither Moon nor Sparks feels like a fully realized character, and Arienhrod, whatever she may have been prior to the events of this book, is just a narcissistic villain. The immortality serum is harvested from a sort of sea creature called a mer, and there are obvious parallels there to man’s quest for petroleum, for animal rights, and even for the way in which we dehumanize other races or religions to suit our own purposes. Moon herself is a clear nature versus nurture metaphor, one that I think is more relevant today as we learn more about how our genes determine our personalities as well as our appearances; she’s constantly confused for Arienhrod, but frequently must choose between using the power that confers and doing the ‘right’ thing for the people of Tiamat, even those who would otherwise do her harm.

The other strength of The Snow Queen is the fact that it has female characters at its center, even if they’re not all fully fleshed out; Moon is the real protagonist, a complex character fighting her own nature and ultimately handed the responsibility for the fate of an entire planet. Sparks is less three-dimensional, and unquestionably the weaker of the two cousins, pursuing power for its own sake and surrendering to an easier life that only requires that he ignore the moral questions around his choices. The society Vinge has created isn’t strictly matriarchal, but is egalitarian enough that she can populate it with strong women without lengthy explanation … which, for a sci-fi novel written in the late 1970s, was remarkable in and of itself. (She was the fourth woman to win the Hugo for Best Novel, and hers was just the fifth win for a woman author in the 28 awards to that date.)

Where The Snow Queen lacks something is in the story itself, which felt disconnected in several ways, and never really left me in any doubt about what would happen to Arienhrod at the end of the book. The event that puts Moon on a spacecraft heading off Tiamat and through the portal is a bit of a ridiculous coincidence, given how important that event and her newfound colleagues become in the later stages of the book. There’s a subplot around a female police officer who becomes commander on Tiamat for dubious reasons, creating a professional and personal journey that would have benefited from some expansion but that felt a little under-told because it was inherently secondary to the Moon-Sparks-Arienhrod plot thread. It moves, as Vinge’s writing is crisp enough to keep the story flowing, but I was never gripped or wrapped up in what might happen to the cousins.

Next up: I’ve just begin Lois McMaster Bujold’s Barrayar, the second book in the Vorkogisan Saga and the first of her four Hugo-winning novels.

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