My top 100 prospects rankings have been going up for Insiders this week, with 100 through 51, 50 through 1, and ten who just missed all up as of Thursday afternoon. The farm system rankings go up on Friday, and team by team reports start running on Monday.
Keith Law: You are a witness to the movement. Klawchat.
Frank: Why did Harrison Bader miss your rankings? He’s raked at every level, can run, has pop and can play a good CF. What contributed to his missing out?
Keith Law: Let me start with my annual disclaimer: There are many prospects who didn’t make the top 100 who still project as big-leaguers, or have above-average upside, or who I otherwise like as prospects. Bader is one of them – I think he’s a solid-average regular as a CF, maybe below that in a corner because he doesn’t project to get on base at an average rate or have above-average power.
Bill G: Thanks as always for the top prospect lists. Max Kepler and Nomar Mazara. Is there still upside or what we see is what we get. Thanks!
Keith Law: Still upside on both. I’m in.
Minnie: Virtu Honest Craft or Citizen Public House for an anniversary dinner? We’re more fun than fancy.
Keith Law: CPH is more fun, Virtu has better food but a shorter menu. CPH has a great cocktail menu too. They make my favorite negroni.
Tim: Any Jays pitching prospects worth talking about after Pearson? Also recommend “Samurai Spirit” board game.
Keith Law: All 30 org reports will run next week, one division a day, Monday through Saturday, I believe starting with the NL East. I had Borucki and Pardinho as the next two pitchers in the Jays’ system.
Kevin S.: Re: your Estevan Florial write-up – what are the chances you see him having an Alfonso Soriano-type career, where he has just enough plate recognition that his immense raw skills make him a good player, but is always frustrationg because it feels like he could be a superstar if he laid off a slider in the dirt?
Keith Law: Soriano was a hacker too, but I don’t think Florial is even that advanced in terms of approach, pitch recognition, or overall instincts. Plus Soriano did play the middle infield for a while, not well, but that gave him some extra value. Again, Florial isn’t a bad prospect by any means; he just has a long way to go.
Jon: Finally the top 100+. Thank you. Look forward to it every year. I always ask (as does everyone) for a couple of lower minors breakouts. I have Larry Ernesto as one, and Kristian Robinson. Would you mind adding a couple of your own? Thanks again for the lists.
Keith Law: I do a sleeper prospect for every team, and those will run in the org reports. Robinson > Ernesto, as much as we can say something like that on 16-year-olds.
Johnny: Alec Hansen had a 3.2 BB/9 last year which is not great, obviously. Where do you think it needs to be for you and scouts to believe in his #2 upside?
Keith Law: Think he can succeed with 45 control because he could have two swing and miss pitches. I’m also bullish because the White Sox have done so much to clean him up and get him to this point from where he was at Oklahoma, falling out of the first round completely after being a top 5 possibility to start the spring.
Nick: What’s your definition of a scout? I know you’ve said before that you didn’t consider yourself one.
Keith Law: I am not a scout. A scout is employed by an MLB team to cover an area for the draft (area scouts), to cover the top tier of guys in a region or country for the draft (supervisors and crosscheckers), to cover specific minor leagues or organizations from the majors down to A-ball (pro scouts), to cover the international amateur market (int’l scouts), or to cover a little of everything as needed (special assignment scouts). I am a writer who knows a little about how to scout. That’s very different. Nobody is using my reports to decide whether to acquire a player or how much to pay one.
TC: Did Jesse Winkler’s lack of power production in the minors along with his defensive limitations keep him from top 100 consideration?
Keith Law: He’s not rookie eligible, and thus not eligible for the rankings.
Nate (Seattle): Hey Keith, wondering where Amed Rosario would rank if he was still eligible?
Keith Law: I don’t rank guys who’ve exhausted their eligibility; we have major-league data on these guys that we don’t on most other prospects, making the comparison a bit unfair.
Pirate Boi: You ranked Mitch Keller 18th overall which is great, but the blurb about him being a 4th starter at the moment may have some Pirates fans worried. Where do you think he eventually falls and does Ray Searage’s ability to get the most out of pitchers factor in at all?
Keith Law: Lots of guys are top prospects without being at their ceilings right now; I have all these teenagers atop the list who probably wouldn’t hit much or hit for any power if you put them right in the majors. Keller is a top prospect with a high ceiling, but he has to find a better third pitch to get there.
Keith Law: Also, I say in the intro that all rankings are team agnostic. Keller could be traded tomorrow, so I don’t consider his org at all.
Joe: Triston McKenzie — how likely is it that he adds velocity since he still has so much projection? What does 2 MPH added mean for his ceiling?
Keith Law: His ranking assumes he’ll at least get to 90-94. He could get more than that; he’s projectable, but I don’t think he has a huge frame to end up at 240-250.
Brian: Keith, a random TV question for you. I know you are a big fan of the Wire. I was curious if you watched Treme and what your thoughts were on it. Thanks.
Keith Law: I did not. I watch almost no TV at this point because of time limitations. I read, I play games, I see movies, that doesn’t leave a whole lot of other time.
Tim: Corbin Burnes made the top 25 which was a pleasant surprise. If you were the Brewers, would you get him reps at AA this season and then skip the AAA call up all together?
Keith Law: Yes. I wouldn’t send any pitching prospects to Colorado Springs unless I wanted them to get high.
Mason: What are your thoughts on Kyle Lewis? I predicted he’d fall out of the top 100.
Keith Law: Didn’t appear to be 100% recovered from the knee injury. We’ll check in again in March and see how he’s moving.
DCS Foyle: A humble request for a random book to read. (It can’t be The Eyre Affair, which I loved and am grateful to you for!)
Keith Law: Best book I read in 2017, any genre, was either I Contain Multitudes or Evicted (Pulitzer winner for non-fiction).
twins fan: Could you give us some thoughts on Brusdar Graterol and Akill Badoo?
Keith Law: In the Twins report next week. I believe both are in their top ten (I haven’t written the AL Central yet).
Grant: If you managed the Cardinals, how would you handle playing time at catcher? It doesn’t seem like Molina is too keen on taking more days off, but they have to get Kelly playing time if he is to be the heir apparent behind the plate.
Keith Law: Yes; I understand the desire to keep Molina happy, and Kelly does have to work on getting the ball in the air more, but ideally you’re getting close to a 50/50 split and have Yadi working with Carson on the stuff he’s supposed to do so well, like handling pitchers. You can also make Yadi the late-game replacement when it’s close and Kelly started.
One Klawwy Boi: Which player in the 51-100 range do you give the best chance at being an absolute superstar?
Keith Law: Adell. Also has a fair chance of not panning out, but I think he has the most upside of anyone in the latter half.
Garrett: I was worried I was scouting stat lines when I saw Logan Allen so I was happy to see him make your list. Separately, what do you think of Chris Paddack even though he is hurt currently?
Keith Law: Fourth starter potential if healthy, probably will just get a brief mention in that loaded Padres system’s writeup.
Lucas: How many players on your top 100 have you not seen play in person?
Keith Law: I think 20 or fewer. Don’t think it’s any more than that. I’ll go into spring training with that list in hand to try to check as many off as I can.
Q Ball: Kolby Allard fell out of the top 100 but I was actually very fond of his 2017. He showed 150 innings of health pitching in the same league all year where batters saw him over and over again. And he was only 19 for the majority of the season. What am I missing?
Keith Law: You didn’t see him, I guess. He was working with a 45 fastball much of the year, and he always had durability questions because he’s on the smaller side. He’s a very different guy at 90-93 and touching a little more than at 87-88.
John: How close was Stephen Gonsalves to making the top 100?
Keith Law: Not close.
Marvin: If more teams follow the Astros and fire their scouts will that make it harder for you to get second opinions when compiling future top 100 lists?
Keith Law: I don’t think any teams are rushing to do that any time soon. But I don’t just talk to scouts, either.
Ethan: Should the Brewers give Keon Broxton more time, or trade him for pitching to make room for Brinson?
Keith Law: Trade Broxton, if he even has trade value. He was close to r-level last year.
Kelly: When you contact your Representatives do you call their office or email? I really want to voice my dissent but get anxious when talking on the phone
Keith Law: I call. It might help you to have 2-3 sentences written down and just read them off when you get someone on the phone. They’re used to it. If you’re polite, you’ll already be well above the median for calls they’ve gotten that day.
Patrick: Keith, as someone who cannot see your prospects list (my espn log-in isn’t working), a question rather on past rankings. Do you ever go back and see where you succeeded, where you didn’t, in forecasts? Does this reflection help you going forward?
Keith Law: It’s a constant process. I know where I got guys wrong – where it was on me, and where circumstances (like injury) I couldn’t predict were the cause. But you can’t do this job without keeping your mistakes somewhere in your mind so you don’t repeat them.
Erix: You were quite high on Logan Warmoth going into the draft. Has your opinion changed at all since?
Keith Law: No.
JR: Is Tatis Jr and Urias the best double play combo in the minors?
Keith Law: No, because I don’t think they’ll even play together to start the year.
Andrew: What does it look like when makeup derails a prospect’s career? Does he not work hard enough and perform poorly on the field, or is it off-the-field?
Keith Law: Those can all happen. It can be drugs or drinking; lack of conditioning, even just slacking on basic stuff like the rotator cuff strengthening pitchers do.
Ryan: Is there someone in the Mets system you could see making a big jump this year, like Anthony Kay, Lindsay or Nido? If not them, anyone else you have your eye on?
Keith Law: Kay, Lindsay (who was much better after he could see again), Gimenez, Mauricio, Vientos. I like their system even though it has become shallower due to trades & promotions.
Twinzies: Given the recent Kohl Stewart football rumors, I thought now would be a good time to ask what happened to him? I know he had injuries, but he didn’t seem to perform well when healthy. I’ve also heard about makeup/attitude issues from Twins beat writers and also wanted to know if you can expand on those makeup/attitude issues.
Keith Law: Stuff backed up, arm isn’t as quick as it was in HS. He denied the rumors, BTW. Never, ever heard a bad word about his makeup.
Rick: What do you make of the Amed Rosario and Dom Smith debuts?
Keith Law: Nothing. Tiny samples, first time around the majors. Mike Trout wasn’t very good his first callup either, so reacting one way or the other to any two-month stint would be folly.
Jason: What kept Adonis Medina off the list? Your report last year with him was glowing
Keith Law: It was glowing, and I like him, but he wasn’t really even close because other teams have great A-ball prospects too.
Patrick: Keith, thanks for the time feeding the baseball beast!
Do you have a ranking of music you are looking forward to this year, too?
Keith Law: Nah, I take it as it comes.
Ed: I’m a meat-eater looking to cut back and implement more vegetarian dishes in my diet – any cookbook recommendations for vegetarian dishes? I didn’t see one on your recommended cookbooks list.
Keith Law: I have several veg-focused books on that list, like Plenty and Tender and Broad Fork, that aren’t strictly vegetarian. You will find plenty in there to work with, though. I also recently got Jeremy Fox’s On Vegetables, which has some great ideas, although the recipes are not well written for the home chef.
Richard: Tomorrow will you be releasing the list of players who just missed the just missed the top 100 list?
Keith Law: That went up this morning and the link is right above this chat window.
WarBiscuits: I know you were against Hoffman’s induction, but honestly I’m glad it opens up a spot for the Rolen/A. Jones types who get way too little mention. It’s annoying how Andruw Jones and Scott Rolen, who are considered one of the best defensive players for their position, like Vizquel(by peers, not stats), but both had a much better bat than Vizquel. For me Rolen/Jones should have been prioritized over Vizquel.
Keith Law: Agreed especially on Rolen. Both he and Andruw were clearly better than Vizquel, whose support seems to be entirely from writers who say “you just had to see him play.” (I did. He wasn’t Ozzie, and he wasn’t Andrelton.)
Sonny: Is your issue with the HOF the voting process or the voters?
Keith Law: Some of both, really. The limit should not be 10, players shouldn’t fall off unless they get 0 votes, and writers really need to let go of the bullshit stats that defined so much of the game’s first hundred years. They don’t work, teams don’t so much as look at them, so stop pretending saves and RBIz and pitcher wins mean anything at all.
WDE: Are you considering making a visit to one of the SEC colleges like Auburn, Florida or MSU this spring? It seems like this college baseball season will be fun.
Keith Law: I’ll see the top guys but not sure where. Very unlikely to go to MSU, just because of time/cost to get there when I can see them on the road, like at Vanderbilt … which is in Nashville … which has such great food.
Tim: Was there a guy that you just couldn’t quite put on the 100 yet, that you are afraid may come back to haunt you?
Keith Law: Sure. Florial and Mountcastle were guys I wrestled with a lot. Hill just wasn’t back and healthy enough for me to push him on, even though I’ve always liked him.
Drew: Hey Keith, I love your work and content. Quick question on Chance Adams…It seems to be a consensus that hes not a top 100 prospect, but how would you value his upside and likelihood of reaching his potential?
Keith Law: Fourth/fifth starter ceiling, likely reliever.
David: I would not vote for Hoffman, but given how hard the baseball HOF is to get in, who are we to say he is undeserving?
Keith Law: Someone has to say it.
Jim (Chicago): Thanks for the hard work, Keith. I imagine Luis Robert must be difficult to rank due to his limited time in the US, but I was curious if he moved up or down for you after you spoke to those at the White Sox hitting camp last week? Did you hear any new information on him after that camp?
Keith Law: Extremely difficult, but that hitting camp doesn’t give us any new info. That’s just practice, nothing from which we can glean any useful insight.
Rick C: I understand that the lists are non-sequential, but the inclusion of Allard in the top 50 (#26 IIRC) at midseason and then being totally off the top 100 a few months later really does not make sense to me. How can someone go from being that highly regarded to being off the list entirely in such a short time? And if he’s really not a top 100 prospect now, that to me indicates a flaw in the process of developing the previous list.
Keith Law: The midseason top 50 list is a single file, developed in less than a week, with a sentence or two on each player. The top 100 is a two-month process that runs about 30,000 words that run over two weeks with long capsules on every top 100 guy. This really isn’t hard to understand.
Jeff: Keith, I believe you had LAD’s Mitch White on your mid season top 50, but not in the top 100 just released. Can you explain what caused the drop & what you see as his likely outcome? Thanks as always for the prospect package. Only reason I keep paying for Insider.
Keith Law: He got hurt and wasn’t good in the second half. Lot more on him in the Dodgers’ writeup (which is actually done already … 16 teams written so far).
Carl: As a Tigers fan, with the #1 pick in the draft is there much to get excited about?
Keith Law: Yes. Good draft, deep too, so good for a team with high picks and lots of bonus $.
Larry: Surprised you had Luis Robert in your rankings without having played a game on US soil. Were the reports from the DSL so strong that you couldn’t leave him off?
Keith Law: Plenty of precedent for that. Maitan and Sano made my lists in previous years before they played. I’ve ranked some drafted players who sat out the summer too.
J.P.: Where would Ohtani have ranked on your list, had he been eligible?
Keith Law: This is why he’s not eligible. How do you compare a player with years of NPB data and success to players here who haven’t faced that level of competition?
Henry: What is the Keith Law diagnosis for the frozen MLB market?
Keith Law: I’m thrilled. More time for me to work on the prospects.
Harold: Will Hoffman be the last sub 30 WAR guy to make the HOF?
Keith Law: We can only hope so. If you add Vizquel’s WAR to Hoffman’s, you get less than half of Barry Bonds’.
Timmy: I understand that a few spots in the rankings is virtually meaningless. That said, how do you determine who to rank higher b/t top players at the same position, like Buehler, Whitley, Kopech, for example?
Keith Law: I do a lot of pairwise comparisons to get to the final list, especially at the top. I’m comparing total packages and individual attributes.
JR: Did any team not have at least one player on the Top 100? As a Mets fan, was bummed to only see one guy in Top 100, I know they’ve promoted a bunch of top guys the past couple years, but still disappointing to see they haven’t been able to replenish the farm like other teams (cough, yankees, cough) have.
Keith Law: Mariners and Royals were shut out. Giants had one at 95 and that’s it. Rangers and Marlins each had one as well.
Keith Law: And the Mets have not done well in trades to acquire prospects from other teams, and they haven’t gone over slot in the draft like most teams have to acquire extra high-ceiling guys.
Jake: How surprised would you be if Tatis became a better offensive player than Acuna?
Keith Law: Not surprised, but Acuna stays in the middle of the field and Tatis is maybe 50/50 to move to third or elsewhere.
Robbie: The angels actually have prospects on your top 100 list and I couldn’t be more excited. Have you noticed any development method changes with the organization or did they simply make better picks?
Keith Law: Better picks. No more strip-mining in trades. International signings starting to bubble up to the list too.
Baltimore Joe: You’ve just been named the GM of the Orioles. Name your first five moves.
Keith Law: This is largely about whether the owner wants to compete or rebuild. I think it’s a rebuild situation – trade Machado for everything you can get, trade Britton if/when he’s healthy, hope to pick high for a few years, actually spend something internationally.
Rick: I don’t recall you ever mentioning how much animal agriculture is contributing to global warming. Do you have any thoughts on ways to reduce this problem?
Keith Law: It’s come up many times in my Saturday links posts. Developed societies tend to eat too much protein in general, more than we need, and the idea of the meat-centric meal is probably outdated. Dan Barber’s book The Third Plate looks into this at great length and without preconceived notions.
JP4424: Read Adlers book, it’ll let you know the diary isn’t a joke.
Keith Law: That’s kind of horrifying that anyone can write that pretentiously without a hint of irony or humor.
Greg: You seem to travel quite a bit within the states, but haven’t heard much of your international treks, if any. Do you have a favorite int’l destination? What’s on your bucket list?
Keith Law: I haven’t left North America since my daughter was born except for a family trip to Hawai’i when we lived in Arizona. I am hoping to get to Italy in the next year to see my cousins there, and then maybe do something else while in Europe. Extreme bucket list … Chile, Buenos Aires, Morocco, Tokyo/Kyoto, the Maldives, Botswana, Costa Rica … I could go on …
Sean: Interested to see your writeup on Keller and concerns about fastball command. His low WHIP and walk rates seemed impressive compared to other similarly rated prospects, especially in the high minors. Is this a case of it would be exposed better by major league hitters and isnt as visible in a minor league stat line? Also, do you think his K rates will translate or will he need more development of the changeup to get strikeouts at the major league level? P.S. Thanks for all the great work on the top 100 and beyond…always something to look forward to every winter!
Keith Law: WHIP sucks, don’t use it for evaluating players. Command and control aren’t the same – control is really just throwing strikes and not walking guys, but command is about location, even within the zone (or outside of it, as needed). Because his fastball can be pretty straight, he needs to be more precise when throwing it than a guy with plus life on the pitch might have to be. Velocity does mitigate some command issues but big league hitters can still turn on 100 mph if it’s straight and gets too much of the plate.
Pat: Tigers pitchers- How close were Burrows, Manning & Faedo to the top 100? What would each need to do in 2018 to make the leap on to the list next year?
Keith Law: Burrows the best of those three. Manning just was not good in 2017 – stuff was down, breaking ball still isn’t there, and he had major control issues in the spring and in extended.
Bort: A trade of Manny Machado to the Indians for Danny Salazar + Greg Allen/Tyler Naquin/Yandy Diaz makes too much sense not to happen, right? If the O’s take the OFer as the second piece they could then sign Moustakas, who should do well in that park/league.
Keith Law: That’s a weak return for Baltimore. Also, why would Moustakas do well in that park?
US Citizens : Give me some hope that our country survives the next three years. We survived World War II so I guess we can survive anything.
Keith Law: We will survive, but we will never be the same.
Colin: So no Tyler O’Neill in the Top 110 after a decent 2017… was he close? Concerned about his ability to make contact or just doesnt off much beyond the power?
Keith Law: Not close, and a .321 OBP for a corner OF is not “decent.”
Todd: The Mets’ ridiculous signings of Jay Bruce and A-Gon make it obvious they hate Dominic Smith. Would now be a good time for a team to swoop in and buy low on him or do you share some of the Mets’ concerns?
Keith Law: I don’t even know what their concerns are. I would certainly be trying to acquire him.
Adam Trask: Which was a worse HOF selection, Hoffman or Morris?
Keith Law: I actually think Morris was worse, even though Hoffman had less value and is also clearly unworthy, because Morris’ case was based completely on bullshit revisionism, while Hoffman’s was based on belief in a bad stat.
Joe: Klaw – making my first trip to Phoenix in the spring. Is Pizzeria Blanca somewhere I can just show up and get a table – or possibly wait 30 mins for a table? Just need a general sense of what level of planning should go into my birthday dinner.
Keith Law: Yes, at the Town & Country location off US 51.
Dr. Bob: If you’re not a scout, are you then an analyst, in that you use other people’s data to make ratings and projections?
Keith Law: I’m just a writer. Anything more than that is unnecessary to me.
Dave: Is Mark Appel a non prospect? Reclamation project?
Keith Law: Ended the year on the shelf with a sore shoulder, obviously wasn’t great before that, so I’d say reclamation project but with the clock ticking.
John: Would Jose Siri be somewhere in the next 100?
Keith Law: I guess, but he was 21 in low-A and swings and misses a ton.
Mitchell: What do you expect from Kevin Maitan at this point? Is he looking like a complete bust, or could he still become a great player? Or somewhere in-between?
Keith Law: Only 18 this year. Still plenty of time to turn it around, but he will have to start to work harder on his body and his swing than he did last year.
Dave: last year you had Corey Ray(34), Isan Diaz(41), Trent Grisham(67), and Luis Ortiz(71) for the Brewers. Did the Brewers get more talented players to have these drop from the list or was it case of just a decline in performance that dropped them from the list?
Keith Law: If those guys still belonged, they would still be on the list, regardless of who else the Brewers acquired.
Tom: Bryan Mata seems to be fairly advanced for his age, albeit without overpowering stuff. Do you project him as much more than a mid-rotation pitcher if he fills out his frame?
Keith Law: Not overpowering stuff, but better than Ronny Raudes, their low-A stats guy from last year, so I’m more bullish. And Mata has some projection left. Mid-rotation is within reach.
Carlo: What would Austin Beck need to show you this year to bump him into the top 100?
Keith Law: He has to hit.
Matt: It’s kinda funny how the more unpopular Jeter becomes, the more popular A-Rod becomes. Who said God doesn’t have a sense of humor?
Keith Law: Martin Gore said He had one, just that it was sick.
Arnold: Thoughts on this new OF the Giants have constructed, Pence in LF, Jackson in CF, McCutchen in RF. It strikes me as a lot of age and likely injuries out there.
Keith Law: And possibly a lot more base hits falling in this year.
Nic: Hey Keith, loved the top 100 as always. Just a few questions: why the big difference in opinion between you and the general consensus on prospects like perez(you are on the high side), and adams(you dont even have him top 100)?Is it you saw them on days when they were either really good or bad, you get different reports from different scouts than everyone else, or you value certain abilities higher when compiling a ranking, or something else?Thanks again for the chat, love your work.
Keith Law: No idea about the “consensus.” I talk to scouts, execs, etc. This isn’t just what I saw.
Matt Malone: Do you believe any changes in organizational philosophy will occur in Atlanta after it got hit with sanctions?
Keith Law: Yes. I believe they won’t break the rules.
Nick: Can you see any pitcher make a jump like Whitley did in 2017? Maybe Jesus Luzardo?
Keith Law: I do think Luzardo could fly up the list now that he’s healthy, if he shows that stuff for an extended period.
Tom: Do the D-backs still have the worst farm system this year?
Keith Law: Rankings tomorrow. They are not 30th.
Pat D: I had The Florida Project #3 on my list for the year, but I’m not too surprised it was snubbed, because I’m guessing it wasn’t seen by enough people. How many of the nominees have you seen, and what would you pick?
Keith Law: I’ve seen 7 of 9, needing Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread. Shape of Water would be #1 for me of the 7 I’ve seen, followed by Dunkirk.
Jon: Keith, based on defense only, how would you order the following: Edmonds, Rolen, Vizquel?
Keith Law: Rolen, Edmonds, Vizquel.
Amy: You can also call reps after hours and leave a voicemail!
Keith Law: That works too.
Nick: Justin Dunn obviously had a pretty poor 2017. I’m guessing he should start 2018 back at Hi-A. Are you still bullish on him going forward as a SP prospect?
Keith Law: Stuff was fine, but he was way more raw as a pitcher than anyone seemed to think before the draft. Still 93-95 even on bad days, still athletic, but I think the Mets have a lot of development work to do with him and they haven’t had a guy like him in a while. I’d still take him in a trade in a heartbeat.
Ethan: Can you give us any kind of picture on what has to be your vast amount of notes look like? Spreadsheets, Word Docs, notebooks, how many?
Keith Law: One Word doc per org. One Word doc per scout/source. A spreadsheet to track all the top tens and the 100. And my scouting notebook.
Dr. Bob: You steadfastly refuse to comment on why you rank players differently than on other lists, which is fine. However, has a player ever that you didn’t care for show up on someone else’s list, making you at least go back and review your notes to see if you might have missed something?
Keith Law: Don’t think so, just because I’m running through so many players to get to my 100.
Joe: Keith, I was a bit surprised to see Acevedo get so close to the list. Is the stuff that good even though he is a pure relief prospect?
Keith Law: Stuff and control. Still think he’s a reliever, but he has started with some success throughout the minors.
Scott: Were you a fan of the Brit band “The Fall”?
Keith Law: Not really. Have known about them and heard some of their stuff going back to high school, but Smith’s stuff was always just a bit too weird, too anti-melodic, too non-musical for me. RIP.
Corey: Could Chavis be on track as the Sox 1B in ’20 with Moreland keeping the seat warm until then ?
Keith Law: Yes.
Nick: Mark Vientos had a nice start to his professional baseball career. Where would you start him in 2018 and what position do you see him playing going forward?
Keith Law: Low-A. I think he goes to third. If Gimenez returns to low-A (he’ll be just 19, Vientos 18), then move Vientos to the hot corner when Gimenez is at short.
JJ: Mike Mussina and your former colleague Curt Schilling have always seemed like a tandem in the HOF voting, but Mussina pulled significantly ahead on the ballots this year. It looks like he might actually get in over the next couple of years. Do you think, if he shuts off his internet for a year or two, that Schilling will join him?
Keith Law: I think Curt’s political and other comments have hurt him enough in the voting that he will probably plateau in the 50-60 range while Moose gets in.
Jeff: I know you don’t consider or worry about other rankings when you make your top 100, but what concerns you about Chance Adams, who appears to consistently be among the top 100 prospects on other rankings?
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s a better question for other rankings – why a short RHP without a plus pitch or much fastball plane/life is a top 100 guy.
JD: any oscar disappointments or pleasant surprises for you?
Keith Law: Really disappointed that Florida Project didn’t get a nomination for Best Picture when there was a damn spot open. This was not going to happen, but I would have loved to see Kogonada get a Best Original Screenplay nomination for Columbus.
Bill: I wish the Mets shared your feelings about two-month debuts. Adrian Gonzales? Really? What the fuck?
Keith Law: I guess the Mets felt they really needed a clubhouse lawyer.
JD: 10 HOF votes for Johan Santana, same as Jamie Moyer. Obviously he’s not a HOFer, but did he deserve better, given that he was the best pitcher in baseball for ~5 years?
Keith Law: Yes, he did. And having him off the ballot doesn’t really serve any greater purpose.
Rob: Thanks for the lists as always. Glad to see the Phils fairly well represented. If we could just fast forward til when those pitchers are ready. Do you have a favorite Stephen Starr place in Philadelphia?
Keith Law: Pizzeria Stella. And go spend some time in Reading, Lehigh, Lakewood this year. They’ll all be pretty fun.
john wick: I understand your decision to not rank Ohtani. Would you rather have him or Acuna for the next six years to start a franchise with?
Keith Law: I think you have to take Ohtani because he’s major-league ready – and not ready in the sense of “won’t be bad,” but in the sense of “probably awesome right away.”
Bret: What percentage chance would you give Bo Bichette to stick at shortstop? Is he a plus second baseman if he moves there?
Keith Law: I know he works his ass off but I don’t think he is a shortstop long term. He plays fast and hard, and I don’t think he’ll be consistent enough or have steady enough footwork for short.
Ike: Would candelario have been in the top 100 if he were still eligible?
Keith Law: No. Not enough glove or power.
JD: Reports say Manfred will impose (1) a firm 20-second pitch clock with a one-ball penalty and (2) only one mound visit per pitcher per inning *by anybody*, player or coach. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I oppose 1, I’m fine with 2.
Rick C: So you’re saying we shouldn’t pay much attention to your midseason rankings?
Keith Law: I’m saying you should not place equal weight on the two, or harp on the idea that a player’s ranking changed dramatically between the two. I start every top 100 from scratch, not by writing down the midseason top 50 and moving guys around.
Martin: My wife is 12 weeks pregnant, any book recommendations on parenting etc would be highly appreciated!
Keith Law: Congratulations! Happiest Baby on the Block.
Brett: Does Yordan Alvarez’s move to the OF hurt his prospect stock?
Keith Law: Don’t see why it would hurt his stock, but I can’t imagine he’ll be OK out there either.
Adam: If you’re the Marlins, with that system, how seriously would you consider making “lottery ticket” trades with Yelich and Realmuto? I feel like getting 7-8 high risk/reward prospects for them has potential to be more rewarding than 2-3 guys in the Top 100 right now.
Keith Law: Absolutely. Go big. You may not get this chance again.
Chad: KLaw – Any chance you want to take pity on me re: the top few of your 2018 draft, like I asked on twitter? I dont want to step on content but i need to draaaaaaaaaaaaft lol.
Keith Law: I won’t even think about this until February. I don’t like answering questions when I haven’t done the work to give thoughtful answers.
Joe: Did Blake Rutherford get any consideration?
Keith Law: No. He and Moniak were both far worse than they should have been, different reasons but same outcome.
Anthony : Was Willie Calhoun not considered due to the lack of defensive position? Where do you see his upside and at what position?
Keith Law: Lack of defensive position is kind of a problem, yes. Not a 2b at all. Probably not a good LF. Not many 5’6″ power hitters in today’s game either.
JD: Have the Coppolella ban and the Braves’ other punishments affected the upcoming J2 process?
Keith Law: No, they were in the penalty box anyway for going over their limits in 2016-17.
Richard: You missed my joke. I meant an additional list “the just missed the just missed the top 100”.
Keith Law: My apologies. Sometimes I read too fast.
Josh: Nine movies being nominated for best picture seems a bit much, no?
Keith Law: To me the extra 5 slots are justified by the boost lesser-known films get from such nominations. I’m pretty sure the nomination just got Darkest Hour another week at my local theater. People will go seek out movies that earned nominations, so if there’s a good indie film that was worthy anyway, why not give it that last slot?
Steve: I could be misremembering weren’t you against the O’s stopping Arrieta from throwing across his body but it’s now not a good approach for Harvey?
Keith Law: Pitcher mechanics are not one size fits all. Arrieta had success throwing across his body and never got hurt. Harvey started throwing across his body in pro ball and almost immediately blew out.
Matt: Hawaii isn’t part of N America?
Keith Law: Um … Hawai’i is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, 2500 miles away from California. It’s on the Pacific Plate, not the North American Plate. Are you new?
Chris: I’m sure this has been asked a bunch but why doesnt dot com run your lists 51-1, etc as titled? i think this came up last year too.
Keith Law: Not my decision.
Eric: Why should Hall of Fame voters care what teams use to judge players? Teams are trying to predict future performance, and Hall of Fame voters are trying to measure past performance.
Keith Law: Teams also measure past performance. They do it a lot better than dingbats who use W SV RBI AVG DERP.
Paul: Has your opinion on whether Royce Lewis can stay at shortstop changed or is it just the Twins who are optimistic about it?
Keith Law: Twins are optimistic. I try to reset judgments on players when they get into pro ball because they get help from new coaches and of course the entire game is different – wood bats, play every day, faster pace, etc.
Dr. Bob: If a pitcher’s job is to get outs, then why are you so dismissive of WHIP? Too broad?
Keith Law: I explain more in Smart Baseball, but in short, pitchers don’t really control hits on balls in play enough for WHIP to be meaningful, and WHIP itself is bad math (measured in batters on top, innings on the bottom). I don’t look at BB/9, but at BB/PA — really (BB-IBB)/(PA-IBB).
Keith Law: Sorry, for a pitcher PA in that denominator would be TBF, and you’d take out SH if it’s included too.
Kevin: How many people asking questions in the queue throw fake names at you. Like, how did Chauncey Gardiner not make the top 100? That guy walks on water.
Keith Law: You reminded me of the fake Coachella poster going around that has band names created by a machine-learning program that took in hundreds of real band names as inputs. It was something else.
Mike: Where would you rank your player evaluation knowledge with someone like Theo or anyone else who is running a team? Is there a high ceiling where some people are really much better than others or is it many ways a skill that doesn’t allow one person to be much better than anyone else who knows what to look for?
Keith Law: I do not put my skills or knowledge up against those who do this for teams. They have more information, they need to base major decisions on their evaluations, and they aren’t trying to entertain anybody.
nelson: Did you see Good Time? Thought it was one of the best movies I saw this year, for what it’s worth.
Keith Law: I did. Pattinson was good, but I hated just about everything else about it: http://klaw.me/2AWJ3RI
Keith Law: Score was good, though.
Mark: I’m a big music fan and I can’t name one Fall song. Any recommendations?
Keith Law: Hit the North and Mountain Energy are two of their more accessible singles.
Ben: Keith, enjoying top 100 and having fun diving into Smart (sp!) Baseball. Faintly remembering you favorably comparing Jordan Hicks v Sandy Alcantara this past year. SA made the list, JH didn’t, so just curious – anything change to adjust your opinion on JH, or is it a reflection of SA’s proximity to majors? Thanks again!
Keith Law: Alcantara is closer, little further along as a pitcher, where Hicks has more pure stuff. Hicks has had some little hiccups along the way that Alcantara hasn’t.
Brian: Do you get a Hall vote next year?
Keith Law: I do. I’ll clearly have Bonds, Clemens, Edgar, Moose, Rolen, Schilling, Walker, and Mo, leaving two spots for a decent group of borderline guys, including Halladay, Manny, Sheffield, etc.
Baldy Rob: Is there a decent chance Loaisiga and/or Tate make next year’s list if they continue building on what they showed in the second half of last season?
Keith Law: A chance, yes.
Adam Doctolero: In response to Minnie, I would go with Virtu. I’ve eaten there three times and each time it was the highlight of the trip I was on. Keith is right, the menu is shorter, but for me that’s a good thing. It’s a great vibe with great service and fantastic food and drinks.
Keith Law: Never had a bad meal at either place, really.
JR: Why do you think people have such strong opinions about the HOF? Why not just be happy for the players that get in?
Keith Law: Dunno. People also really seemed to think I would be upset that Hoffman got it. I could not care less about this – having opinions on these matters is my job, and if I can mine humor from it, great.
KS: If Jazz Chisholm stays healthy this season do you expect him to be a candidate for the 2019 top 100 list?
Keith Law: If you asked me last year, I would have predicted he’d make this year’s list. Then he got hurt and had no chance to show any progress. So … I hope so.
Todd: Marcus Stroman is successful, hes short, why cant Chance Adams be?
Keith Law: Yes, all short pitchers are Marcus Stroman. Exactly.
Keith Law: Willie Calhoun is my height. I would suggest you draft him for your fantasy team and not me.
Tom: Do you have any loose rule about how many opinions you want on a player before being comfortable forming a full opinion? Is it different if it is a scout and an exec vs two scouts or just your own eval and nothing else?
Keith Law: Never just me. That’s the one big rule. I think the minimum I need to feel good about a player is three – mine and two others, scouts or execs. After that, more opinions are good (pretty sure I talked to 3 guys who saw Manning and more than 4 on Florial), but there tend to be diminishing returns beyond that.
Joe: Keith, I am moving to the Tampa area for work. Are people allowed to watch GCL games? Not looking for a high level of play, but just a way to kill a few hours here and there.
Keith Law: Yes, usually can just walk in.
Dr. Bob: You once commented that a college player should be in high-A very quickly after signing. Wouldn’t a good high-school signee have advanced that far or farther by age 22? If so, what does that say about how well a player will develop in college vs. how well he will develop at Rookie and low-A?
Keith Law: Depends. Some kids at 18 aren’t physically developed enough to handle the rigors of pro ball, but get there by 21.
Witt Jr.: Where would you rank Witt Jr. and any comps?
Keith Law: He’s 2019 draft. He might as well be a fictional character for me at this point. No, I care more about fictional characters than guys for future drafts.
Rick C: FTR, that was not me that asked if we shouldn’t pay attention to your midseason rankings. Someone took my name, oddly.
Keith Law: That person has gotten progressively nastier, too.
Tom C: Especially because of all the pitching changes in every game, why didn’t Manfred propose “relief pitchers get 2 warm up pitches when they enter the game?
Keith Law: This is one I don’t understand, although of course I’ve never pitched, but can we shift more of the warmup to the bullpen? Require pitchers to be more ready when they come in? My suspicion has long been that we can, but it would cut into commercial time. If you killed mid-inning commercial breaks, games would feel MUCH faster.
qq: Were you surprised by MLBAM/Bob Bowman story?
Keith Law: Nothing and nobody surprises me any more.
Jeff: I know you consider Ohtani a #1 ML SP and don’t buy him as an everyday bat, but would you do anything at all with him as a hitter or just forget it and have him concentrate 100% on pitching?
Keith Law: If he wants to hit, you probably have to find a way to make it work. Plus their current DH might be the worst player in baseball.
Jon: What are your feelings on stumping for or against HOF candidates? Do you think Jonah Keri or Joe Morgan impacted the voting for Raines, Bonds/Clemens?
Keith Law: I’ve always been vocal about whether I would or wouldn’t vote for players – I came out for Raines right away, and wrote about how I thought the all-white electorate was being harder on him than it was on white candidates with similar drug use histories. Whether it affects anything, I don’t know, but I’m not trying to sway voters so much as talk to all of you.
Kevin: Blasphemous Rumors! Nice Pull. Have you played any of the Ticket to Ride Expansion boards? Do you have a favorite?
Keith Law: Europe is great. I have the England and PA boards for the app and haven’t tested them out yet. Also my daughter and I played the France map at PAX Unplugged and it’s very different, I think in a good way.
Brett: If I said Ronald Acuna to your wife, would she have any clue who that was?
Keith Law: I just said it to her, and she said, “Is that like Hakuna Matata? It’s a wonderful phrase.” So that’s a no.
Logan: Thoughts on the Grichuk deal? Thanks, really liked your book.
Keith Law: Grichuk has long been a 4th OF for me, sunk by poor plate discipline, esp recognition of breaking stuff. Greene throws hard, up to 99, trouble repeating, may have to go to the bullpen. Leone is a solid middle reliever when he’s healthy.
Drew: Is Seth Romero’s makeup is main achilles heel or are there other reasons for Nats fans to be skeptical of him?
Keith Law: Not a great delivery either. But you can’t ignore the stuff.
Tom C: It’s funny to me people who complain that players should vote for HoF, MVP, etc because “they played the game”; like it hasn’t been proven 1) they’re just as bad at it as anyone, 2) they have their own personal biases and 3) oh BTW, people will still be mad when the players don’t vote in their own favorite guy.
Keith Law: Aren’t player votes for the All Star Game often worse? Like, they just look at fantasy stats for the current season?
Sparhawk: For a big guy like Joey Wentz his FB velocity seems on the light side. Do you expect he’ll get the FB to mid 90’s consistently?
Keith Law: Velocity is great, but when you have deception and great extension you can do well at solid average. If Allard had that stuff, I’d feel better about him right now than I do.
Jeremy: Where would a healthy Anderson Espinoza rank? Surprised to not see him on there when guys who also missed 2017 due to injury are on the list.
Keith Law: Missed all of 2017, likely to miss most of 2018, never got above A-ball before injury or showed great performance. How many guys who missed 2017 are on the top 100? Reyes, but he was literally in the majors. Kaprielian was a lot more advanced as a pitcher than Espinoza. I think that’s it.
Nick: I don’t drink coffee, but I would like to try to start making/preparing high quality cups of coffee for my wife. Suggestions on where to start?
Keith Law: I’m a pour-over fan myself. I own this $16 Hario V60 dripper and use paper cone filters. And buy good coffee – just find a good local roaster. Tell me in the comments where you live and I’ll see if I know one.
Nic: Help me out?I am so conflicted.I think schilling is 100% a hof’er AND i think he is, and hispersonal views are, disgusting.What do i do?I want to advocate for him but i feel he doesnt derseve it because of his personal life.
Keith Law: HoF should be mostly if not completely about the player, not the person. And the political stuff was largely after his career anyway. I won’t argue against anyone who declines to vote for him, because he’s said some truly awful things, but I would vote for him myself.
Brian in Ahwatukee : Re AJ Puk- you mentioned him as a #2 but also a top LHP. What is the difference? I figure by rarity one a top LHP would be a 1.
Keith Law: He could still be a 1, but I would not say the top LHP in the minors is a future 1 by default. Has to earn it, so to speak, with stuff and command and feel.
Rick C: Sorry to hear that. I still think there’s a flaw in this ranking process, but I’m not going to personally attack you over it.
Keith Law: I’ll put it this way: If I had my druthers, I’d only do the offseason top 100s. I have an extensive process that produces results with which I am comfortable. They’re never perfect, and I could always have done something more, but I know they are well-researched and that I give solid evidence for every ranking decision. Nothing I do in-season can match that. I just don’t have the time when I’m also traveling to games, mixing in amateur stuff with the pro, and writing about major-league topics as they occur.
Kevin: Wow, this KLAW has been long and meaty today……….
Keith Law: I think you all deserved a long chat, since I had only done one in the previous five weeks, and gave you all this content earlier in the week that I know led to lots of questions. And I’m happy to answer them.
Keith Law: Thank you all for reading this week, for showing up here, and for making all of this possible with your support and readership. The org reports will start on Monday, farm rankings tomorrow, and I will try to chat somewhere next week (but perhaps not Thursday, as I have to go to Bristol that day). Twitter’s been a mess of HoF stuff, so if you have questions as we go, my Facebook page is going to be a better place to interact – just leave comments under the articles as I post the links each day. Thanks again!
