→ March 14, 2018
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Sing, Unburied, Sing.

Jesmyn Ward’s novel Sing, Unburied, Sing won the National Book Award for 2017, and is among the leading contenders for this year’s Pulitzer Prize in Fiction. It’s very much in the long tradition of African-American literature that employs magical realism to tell a story that shows readers the weight of historical racism borne by today’s African-Americans. It feels timely, and it does not shy away from any of the ugly truths of any such story, but it also felt too familiar, as Ward seems to cover ground that Toni Morrison, Alice Walker, and Zora Neale Hurston covered a few decades ago.

Ward unfurls the story through two narrators, with a third joining briefly in the heart of the book, who move together but offer different perspectives on the same events. JoJo is a precocious 13-year-old boy, living in the Deep South with his grandparents, Pappy and Mam, the latter of whom is dying of cancer. JoJo’s mother, Leonie, is a drug addict and inconsistently in the house, so JoJo has learned to take care of himself and his toddler sister, Kayla, short for Michaela. Their father, Michael, starts the novel in prison, and the bulk of the story revolves around a disastrous trip the three of them take to meet Michael when he’s released from prison, joined by Leonie’s addict friend Misty. Leonie is black, and Michael is white, and his father is a good ol’ boy racist who wants no part of his grandchildren. Leonie had a brother, Given, who was shot and killed by a white boy … who happened to be Michael’s cousin. When Leonie gets high, she sees Given.

There’s a second story, told by Pappy to JoJo in pieces over the course of the novel, relating to Pappy’s time in the prison camp known as Parchman (now a regular prison, where Michael has been doing time). Pappy tried to take care of Richie, a young boy about JoJo’s age who was sentenced to time in Parchman for stealing food to feed his many siblings, but it’s clear from the start of the story that something went awry. When JoJo gets to Parchman, he sees Richie as a ghost just as Leonie sees Given, and getting to the bottom of the story becomes crucial to JoJo and to our own understanding of what Ward is trying to say in the book as a whole.

The way that past racism continues to exact a toll on subsequent generations suffuses Sing, Unburied, Sing. JoJo, obviously aware of racism and mature beyond his years, feels like a great secret is being kept from him, while Kayla is too young to care, but has also come to see JoJo as a parent more than Leonie or the father she doesn’t even know. Pappy has never recovered from what happened at Parchman; Mam has never recovered from losing Given. (In a nice touch of realism, the white boy who shot Given doesn’t go to jail.) And Leonie wants to escape, physically and mentally, from just about everything other than Michael, but the superficial escape granted by drugs brings her visions of Given, a past she didn’t ask to inherit.

Ward’s portraits of her core characters and even some of the side ones – Misty and the lawyer Al, at the least – are compelling and well-rounded, although all of the central figures are broken in some fashion. Michael is a bit of a cipher here, but also doesn’t appear in much of the book. But the gimmick of the ghosts is a familiar trope in this genre, and Ward doesn’t seem to say anything particularly new here, or to give readers a new angle on the subject. Yes, historical racism perpetuates the socioeconomic disadvantages most African-Americans face in our society. I don’t think this book does enough to illuminate the problem or give anyone a window on how to address it. There is also way too much vomiting in this book. I’m all puked out, thanks.

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→ March 12, 2018
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The Warmth of Other Suns.

Isabel Wilkerson says she spent 15 years researching the book The Warmth of Other Suns: The Epic Story of America’s Great Migration, which won the National Book Critics Circle Award for General Nonfiction in 2010, and the research shows in the incredible depth of detail in this tripartite narrative about the mass movement of black Americans from the Jim Crow South to the north and west from 1915 to 1970. Wilkerson, who won a Pulitzer Prize for journalism while working for the New York Times, interviewed over 1200 people, and focused this sweeping saga on three African-Americans who fled the south’s limited opportunities and overt, violent racism, fleeing Mississippi, Florida, and Louisiana for Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles. Their stories are interwoven with each other’s and with other related histories of others who followed similar paths, and the tragedies of some of those who chose to stay behind.

Wilkerson gives us three characters who will accompany us through the book’s 600-odd pages (for me, 22-plus hours of audio): Ida Mae Gladney, a sharecropper’s wife from Mississippi who followed her husband, George, to Milwaukee and eventually the south side of Chicago; George Starling, a fruit picker from Eustis, Florida, who tried to organize other fruit pickers to earn better wages but fled from white landowners who set out to lynch him; and Robert Pershing Foster, a doctor from Louisiana who became a successful surgeon in Los Angeles and served many celebrity patients. The three all marry and raise children, and all find greater prosperity in the north than would ever have been possible where they were born, but all face the normal travails of any working-class life, and each carries some of the baggage of their birth and upbringing as outcasts in a racist country well into adulthood.

All three have compelling, often heartbreaking individual stories – although I think Wilkerson’s touch here is so deft that she could make anyone’s life story compelling – but none was more fascinating than the path taken by Dr. Foster, who left Monroe, Louisiana, and found success as a doctor in California both by outworking other doctors and by bringing an intense, precise sort of personal attention to his patients. Shedding his childhood name of Pershing after he moved to go by the more conventional name of Robert, Dr. Foster seems to have achieved the American dream against long odds, earning material wealth, marrying well, raising three daughters who themselves became successful, thus creating an ongoing chain of success and upward mobility from his own struggle. Yet he never seems to be able to escape the scars of a childhood (and possibly a marriage that brought him in-laws who never thought he was good enough) in a way that allows him to enjoy his success. Wilkerson illustrates him as a demanding, controlling husband who was meticulous about his own appearance and that of his wife, while he also was a compulsive gambler who clearly enjoyed how his spending at casinos bought him a form of respect at the casinos he frequented. Later in the book, Wilkerson tells of a gala Foster threw in his own honor, and how he agonized over every detail of the party, and how he couldn´t enjoy it during or afterwards because of perceived imperfections in the result.

At times a brutal, unsparing look at the treatment southern whites doled out to the black underclass as a matter of course, The Warmth of Other Suns is also deeply personal and empathetic. Wilkerson tells several stories of lynchings, including Leander Shaw and Claude Neal, the latter of whom was brutally tortured before he was hanged for a murder he may not have committed. She details the violent, racist reign of Lake County, Florida, Sheriff Willis McCall, accused at least 50 times of abusing or killing black suspects in his custody, once shooting two handcuffed black prisoners in cold blood and finally ousted from office after eight terms when he kicked a black prisoner to death. (McCall’s son, now 64, was arrested in January for molesting a young girl and possessing child pornography. He had stated in the past that his father was innocent of all charges of civil rights violations.) George Starling leaves Florida because a friend tells him local whites are going to take him to a swamp for a ´necktie party,´ racist slang for lynching. Ida Mae and her husband, also George, leave their life as sharecroppers under a benevolent but still manipulative, controlling landowner after a friend of theirs is beaten into senselessness over the theft of some turkeys that, it turns out, had just wandered off. Robert Foster isn’t driven out the same way but realizes that as a black doctor who can’t even receive admitting privileges at the white hospital, he’ll end up as just a ‘country doctor’ if he doesn’t move out of the land of Jim Crow.

The stories of violence and outright suppression are hard enough to fathom today, but the smaller indignities that the three protagonists and other African-American characters in the book faced fill in the gap and have even more impact because they’re easier to ingest today, when lynchings like that of James Byrd Jr. are extremely rare and result in actual convictions of the killers. When Dr. Foster is driving to California and can’t find a hotel room, even though some white proprietors are kind in rejecting him, lying to his face about vacancies, you can see and feel it. When Ida Mae has to take a series of temporary jobs in Chicago, where most employers will still choose only white candidates, she ends up in a situation right out of #MeToo. Even positive stories often come with a bitter reminder of what came before; George Starling, working as a porter on a north-south rail line, is told to direct black passengers to certain cars when the train passes into the south even after Jim Crow has been made illegal, and has to subtly inform these passengers of their right to say no, at risk of his own employment.

Wilkerson’s personal approach to the book does not exclude the academic research on the subject, but she instead sprinkles details and observations of experts on the timing, motive, and extent of the migration – which came in waves, and finally slowed after the Civil Rights Act was passed in 1964 and slowly implemented over the following decade. (And, of course, we now see one party trying to roll it back, along with the Voting Rights Act of 1965.) This is a work of scholarship, yet also a labor of love, as no author could spend so much time and become so invested in a subject unless it were of abiding personal interest to her in the first place. It’s also a potent reminder of why African-Americans today remain at an economic disadvantage relative to whites, and how we are simply repeating the sins of our fathers when we deny black Americans their right to vote, or incarcerate them on nonviolent drug charges, or underfund urban schools as if they were the ‘colored’ schools of the Jim Crow era.

Next up: Margaret Creighton’s The Electrifying Fall of Rainbow City: Spectacle and Assassination at the 1901 Worlds Fair.

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→ March 11, 2018
→ By

They’d Rather Be Right.

Mark Clifton and Frank Riley’s They’d Rather Be Right won the second Hugo Award for Best Novel and is widely regarded today as the worst of all of the 66 winners of that prize. It was later reissued with two related short stories appended to the beginning of it and sold as The Forever Machine, which is the version I read, and the main story is not improved any but the inclusion of those two extra bits. I couldn’t get over what a shame this entire book was, because there’s a germ of an idea at the heart of it that is actually quite relevant today – what might artificial intelligence do for us, and how it might be able to change civilization if we’re willing to let it.

Two professors, with the help of a natural telepath named Joey, build a ‘cybernetic machine’ they name Bossy, which operates quite a bit like today’s backpropagation AI programs do, but with the unstated condition that, in the world of this novel, P is actually equal to NP and thus all problems that can be verified quickly can be solved in polynomial time. Bossy can answer anything and somehow can reverse aging and make people immortal. The media gets stirred up against Bossy at first, so the professors have to dismantle it, take it into hiding, and rebuild it in a flophouse in San Francisco, eventually gaining the help of a local industrialist who controls major media outlets and enlisting some help from the military to protect it. When their first patient reverse-ages about 30 years and starts talking like a Buddhist who’s achieved nirvana, the uproar threatens to engulf the project and potentially end it.

There’s a decent premise in there, and the title comes from a funny exchange about whether people would give up their most cherished beliefs and preconceived notions in exchange for a life of immortality, wisdom, and peace. One of the inventors of Bossy says that given that choice, most people would reject what Bossy was offering, saying “they’d rather be right” than gain everything there possibly is to gain. But my word is the execution here terrible. The three main inventors, all men, are paper-thin and boring; even Joey’s telepathy is just a crutch, not really important to Bossy’s development, but a way for him to control other people the way Second Foundation experts in Isaac Asimov’s series use mentalics. The woman who becomes Bossy’s first success story, Mabel, is the hackneyed hooker with a heart of gold, and about as interesting as paste even before her transformation – and she’s worse afterwards.

It’s also never really clear why the public rages against Bossy early in the book and then clamors for it later. Yes, public opinion often goes against new technologies or scientific progress if a large portion of the population doesn’t understand it – GMOs are the best modern example – but that’s not well set up here at all. If someone invents a Forever Machine, what fool wouldn’t take it? Even if I told you that it wouldn’t extend your lifespan, but would remove any effects of aging and protect you against cancer and autoimmune diseases and more, and also gave you greater intelligence and inner peace, you’re still saying no? People spend billions of dollars on useless supplements to try to get a little healthier. If someone invents Bossy, they’ll need an army to keep people away from it.

I’ve got a few more Hugo winners to review here that I’ve already read, and right now I have just four left: C.J. Cherryh’s Cyteen; Vernor Vinge’s A Deepness in the Sky; and the second and third novels in Kim Stanley Robinson’s Mars trilogy. Vinge’s book I’ll read soon enough – it’s just long, but I do find his books interesting, even if they move a little slow. But those Mars books … given how awful Red Mars is, and yes, it’s a more painful read than even this dreck, I’m in no rush to read them just for the sake of finishing a list.

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→ March 10, 2018
→ By

Stick to baseball, 3/10/18.

I had two posts for Insiders this week, with another one on Shohei Ohtani just posted this morning. One piece looked at potential #1 overall pick Casey Mize, a right-handed pitcher at Auburn who threw a no-hitter last night. I ranked potential impact prospects for the 2018 season, which differs from my top 100 ranking, which looks at prospects’ long-term expected value. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

Over at Paste, I reviewed Smile, a new, light card game designed by Michael Schacht, best known for Zooloretto.

The paperback version of Smart Baseball comes out on Tuesday! I’ll be at Twitter HQ that day, and will answer questions from readers via the site’s Q&A app. To submit a question, tweet it with the hashtag #smartbaseball.

And now, the links…

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→ March 9, 2018
→ By

In This Corner of the World.

In This Corner of the World is a Japanese anime film based on a manga of the same name, and I present it here as part of our ongoing #BetterThanBossBaby series, looking at films eligible for the 2017 Academy Award for Best Animated Feature that were passed over in favor of that unfunny, unimaginative, big-budget film. This one, as with The Girl Without Hands, is critically acclaimed in its own right, and features some gorgeous animation that draws on both conventional anime styles and alludes to many painters of the western canon, while also telling an epic drama that has much in common the works of great Japanese authors like Junichiro Tanizaki and Yasunari Kawabata.

In This Corner is narrated by Suzu, a young girl who loves to draw and who grew up in Japan between the wars, turning 18 in 1944 when a young man, Shusaku, arrives at the house and asks her parents for her hand in marriage. The bulk of the film takes places between that point and the end of the war, and follows Suzu through what first looks like it will be a traditional story of a young woman struggling to adapt to life with her new family, but what then becomes a broader tragedy when the town where they live, Kure, is raided with increasing frequency by Allied forces. Suzu endures several calamities that would break the spirit of many people, but she is fortunate in one sense, as her home town, where her parents still lived, was Hiroshima. It’s available to rent now on iTunes or amazon.

Suzu’s drawings form a critical through line in this film even as its tone and her circumstances change dramatically, and even when she can no longer draw as she once did, recollections of those drawings and the memories associated with them continue to drive the narrative forward. This thread is critical because there is no traditional story arc in this movie; the war and time push us towards the conclusion, but the movie lacks a second, entirely fiction plot that might have been grafted on top of this. The marriage between Suzu and Shusaku is not depicted as some great romance; there’s even a one-that-got-away subplot that appears a few times in the film that underlines how Suzu was not the master of her own destiny. She’s put through the ringer – the film doesn’t stint on the horrors of war, and serves as an inadvertent but potent reminder of how awful our actions in Yemen have been – but continues to grow and evolve as an adult because life forces her to do so.

The backdrop and Suzu’s artwork are really stunning, and easily form the film’s best attribute, given the somewhat aimless plot – although I think this is all aimless by design. I caught allusions to Van Gogh and Monet, at the very least, and I’ve mentioned before what a philistine I am when it comes to art. The renderings of the landscapes, buildings, and even warships are gorgeous and meticulous, giving the film a lush, textured feel like you’d expect from CG (think of the verdant backdrops in Tangled) but with the hand-drawn look of anime.

That aimlessness in the plot, however, seems rather deliberate. We think we have control over our lives, but that’s only the case until some greater force comes in and reminds us that we are merely fighting for control against a tide we can’t stop. The war isn’t there, and then it’s a tangent, and then it subsumes their lives, becoming a daily threat and leading to food shortages and rationing. Keiko, Suzu’s widowed sister-in-law, arrives not long after Suzu moves in with her in-laws, and serves as a figurative harbinger of what’s to come, pushing Suzu out of her new role as the dutiful daughter-in-law and taking out her own grief on the younger girl, who is powerless to defend herself given her age and the gender roles of the time. She’s pushed along by forces well beyond her, often that she doesn’t understand, and becomes the hero because it’s that or perish.

I know one of you commented recently that this was the best animated film of last year, and I wouldn’t necessarily argue against that, but I did have a few quibbles with the production, especially the abrupt ending to many scenes. Some of those scenes only last a few seconds, as in a few showing the family eating their meager dinners, which interrupts the moderate ebb and flow of the story in a way I found annoying – you can’t maintain a mood or atmosphere like that. The young men are also drawn too similarly, and there were a few points in the script where I was fairly sure I missed some detail because they jumped too quickly to the next speaker or scene. If you’re thinking of this for family viewing, there are a few scenes of violence that are quite graphic, and the content as a whole is not appropriate for kids. The bombing of Hiroshima is seen from a distance, but the effects are described in a few ways that would also likely disturb younger viewers.

While the story was imperfectly told in In This Corner of the World, it also has the broad scope you might expect to see in a highly regarded live-action film; if you made this into a ‘regular’ movie with famous actors (the English voice work is all done by folks who are not household names here), it would be discussed as a Best Picture hopeful. That makes it so much more ambitious than many animated films, even many live-action ones, and that along with the remarkable, beautiful animation have it rivaling Coco and The Girl Without Hands for the top spot among animated films last year. And I think you know what’s in last.

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→ March 8, 2018
→ By

Klawchat 3/8/18.

New board game review at Paste of the light, fast-moving card game Smile; and new Insider post looking at who the top rookies might be for 2018.

Keith Law: So numb, can’t even react. Klawchat.

What’s in a name?: Did you know there was never a major league baseball player with the first name of Tyler before 1993? Now there have been about 40. The Yanks set a new record with 4 Tylers last year. There were no Brandons before 2000; now there have been about 50. The 2012 A’s had FIVE.
Keith Law: I believe in 2013 we had four players in the first round or so named Hunter. We gave our daughter a name that had never appeared on any of those top 100 baby names list to avoid something like this (plus we loved the name we gave her anyway).

Joseph: I looked forward to these every week. I heard reports that Vlad Guerrero Jr is THICC right now (not in a bad way). But it seems more likely he moves from 3B to 1B. What percentages of likelihood would you put on it?
Keith Law: I’m not certain you have to move him to 1b; he’s a big boy, but not unathletic, and maybe he could stand in an outfield corner. Probably 40/60 on him staying at third.

Jo-Nathan: Knowing how you feel about Tim Tebow, what were your thoughts on Michael Jordan as a ‘prospect’ in 94?
Keith Law: I was 20 and busy finishing my senior thesis. I really had no idea at the time whether it was plausible or a publicity stunt or something to do with gambling.

addoeh: Who signs first; Jake Arrieta or Kirk Cousins?
Keith Law: Did Arrieta solicit suggestions on social media?

One Klawwi Boi: You mentioned in chat weeks ago that Jo Adell has the highest ceiling of anyone in the 2018 draft. If he has a productive year, does he vault into top 20 consideration going into 2019? Potentially higher? Is his ceiling a 65 FV?
Keith Law: I don’t love putting specific numbers like that ‘future value’ on players this young & far away. I think he has superstar upside, but also huge risk … early last spring I had scouts telling me they were questioning whether he could hit at all, talking about him on the mound, and then he hurt his arm but started making more/better contact. I do think his full-season debut will tell us a lot more about how advanced a hitter he is – whether he’s a Trout/Vlad Jr type who already has a good enough approach to race up the minors or will be more a level-by-level guy or is something even less than that (which I doubt, but it’s possible).

Hello: My friend wants me to ask you: “Is Rafael Devers going to be Baby Miggy?”
Keith Law: I wouldn’t put that on any prospect.

Romo: If you were in a front office, would you have removed Seth Romero from your draft board?
Keith Law: I would have, given what we know about his behavior, his medicals, and his delivery. It is a legit plus-plus changeup, though, and above-average velocity, from the left side. I understand why he went where he did, but there are risks I’ll stomach and some I won’t.

Eric: I don’t expect you to know the Vegas win totals off the top of your head, but are there any teams projected for the bottom half of baseball that you could see surprising people this year if a couple dominoes fall the right way?
Keith Law: I’ll look at that later this month. Right now I’ve been more focused on draft stuff.

Faria: Does Faria have a future as a starter? If so, what’s his ceiling, #4?
Keith Law: Yes. League-average sort of upside.

Garrett: It’ll be at least 2020 before Walker Buehler pitches 200 innings, right?
Keith Law: I’ll put 50/50 odds on him never pitching 200 innings in a season.
Keith Law: And that’s not a criticism; I think he’s potentially elite, but unlikely to handle what is now a top-end workload.

Joseph: I’m making Pastrami for St Paddy’s day and I’ve never done it before (though I’ve smoked brisket half a dozen times). Was wondering if you had any advice for me and wish me luck!
Keith Law: I have never made brisket in any form, sorry. Even when I did eat beef, the time required & the quantity produced made it a poor investment.

Mike: What’s the deal with Dayton Moore about dragging the Royals into his uber-conservative social stances? First the Royals teamed with an anti-abortion group as a marketing partner (and declined to let Planned Parenthood participate in a similar marketing program), and now the Royals are hosting anti-porn workshops for their players. Moore can believe whatever he wants and support whatever social cause he feels best represents his views. But to drag the Royals into it from an official (i.e., team-sanctioned) POV….Huh???
Keith Law: I had the same thought last night. He is absolutely entitled to his personal views and to conduct himself in a manner consistent with them. This anti-porn thing is a bad joke, though; the individual and societal effects of pornography have been researched for decades, and no link has been found between pornography viewing or availability and things like sexual assault rates. (Porn may actually reduce such rates, although I think the relationship is weak.) You don’t like porn? Absolutely fine. But what the Royals are doing here and with their anti-abortion partners is bringing religion into a secular work place, and I would hope a Royals player would exercise his rights and fight back.

Jay: Would you give Andujar the starting job at third?
Keith Law: Yes, although I think they’ll give it to Drury now and aim to have Andujar up by midyear.

Jay: Kannapolis or Winston-Salem – where would you start Robert out?
Keith Law: I hope to see him this weekend, at which point I may have a different answer, but my gut right now is Kannapolis. Easy to move him up if he overwhelms the league; hard to demote a guy this high-profile.

TJ: Do you think that Moustakas is just netter off waiting until June once the comp pick goes? He doesn’t seem to have a lot to gain by signing a short term deal
Keith Law: Yes.

Andrew: Keith – Thanks for the time, always enjoy the chats. Quick question with a little broader scope – do have any thoughts or heard anything on the grapevine to explain the Yankees improvement in player development over the last ~5 years?
Keith Law: They’ve shifted their draft philosophy somewhat, especially with higher picks; they’ve changed how they develop pitchers, including working with weighted balls, which has led to a lot of guys gaining velocity; and they’ve been more focused on getting and retaining prospects in trades.

Rodney: Hi Keith, thanks for doing these chats! The biggest knock against Matt Thaiss seems to be the lack of power he’s shown. Do his 2 home runs in 22 spring training PA signal anything, or is typical spring training stats noise?
Keith Law: Everything in spring training stats is noise. It’s even worse in Arizona because the entire league tends to favor home run production.

Nick: Andrew Vaughn is off to a great start. How does his bat compare to the 1B-only bats in the 2018 class like Beer and Baker?
Keith Law: Beer isn’t 1B only. I don’t think Vaughn or Baker is a first rounder.

Dingus McGee: I hear a lot about spring training stats don’t mean much, if anything, but what do teams/scouts/those in the know look at during March games?
Keith Law: You can still look at players to see, from the seats or in Trackman data, if something tangible has changed. A new delivery, a reduced spin rate, a different launch angle, a new pitch, more velocity … those are real changes that can impact this season’s performance, but the tiny samples and inconsistent competition of spring training makes those stats useless.

JJ: Ohtani’s a virtual lock to be chosen the AL ROY, but who’s going to win it in the NL?
Keith Law: He’s a lock? What if he only makes 20 starts? Or gets hurt? You can’t just gift anyone the award right now. I looked at the top impact rookies for this year in a short piece today for Insiders.

Buckner 86: Does Jose Berrios take another step forward this year? Can he be a top 20 SP? Thanks
Keith Law: Step forward, yes. Top 20 SP, no.

Matt: Was Odorizzi really worth nothing? Put up 5 WAR from ’15-’16. Hard to believe some SP-thirsty team couldn’t do better than Palacios?
Keith Law: I believe i mentioned in a previous chat that his back issues are a major concern.

Jaime: Isn’t it hypocritical of the alphabet news networks to demonize firearms when people who sit on their board also sit on the board of defense contractors, who are responsible for far worse across the globe?
Keith Law: That is the tu quoque fallacy.

Devon: The fiancee bought me a cool boardgame for Valentine’s Day called Hive. I searched for it on your site and it looks like you haven’t reviewed it. Have you not played it before or did it not make your top 100?
Keith Law: Haven’t played it.

CD: In regards to the top unsigned FA, do you think they lack any offers, or they just lack offers they like like and find acceptable?
Keith Law: My understanding is that they’re getting few offers and the ones they’re getting are way below expectations. At some point, though, don’t you just say, I’ll take the best one-year deal anyone will offer, and go from there?

BE: With the cost benefit of young players being so high, wouldn’t it make sense to better prepare them with better nutrition and instruction before they reach the majors?
Keith Law: Yes, but because that product isn’t visible now, more teams spend that money on the major-league roster.

Archie: Who do you see handling 1B for the Astros until Gurriel comes back?
Keith Law: Probably AJ Reed. Don’t think it’s a big deal for them, not something that will require trading for help.

Joey: Only 14 SP’s pitched 200 innings last year, while 32 did it in 2013. The days of 200 innings are slowly going away as pitching becomes more “specialized”.
Keith Law: I completely agree.

JR: I know it’s just spring training, but the reports on Matt Harvey have been positive so far. While the glory days of ’13 and ’15 are not coming back, is there any hope he can slightly above league average (or a tad better) this year?
Keith Law: I think it’s about health more than anything else with him … I don’t think it’s mental, or makeup related. He was worked extremely hard at UNC, and the Mets had to use him more than I think they would have liked back in 2015. I believe this is the outcome of those two factors.

Dante: Put on your Matt Klentak hat for a moment. Do you make the dive into possible contention in 2018 and sign Arrieta/Cobb/Lynn, or use this season to see if the plethora of in-house options will pan out?
Keith Law: I’d sign Cobb, but wouldn’t give up the draft pick and bonus pool money attached to it for either of the other two.

Brady: Finished Hyperion last week and I can see your issue with the non-ending, but I think I was less critical of it knowing there was a direct sequel out there that probably continues on with the pilgrims’ story. You seem to have liked the first book as much as I did, and I can’t wait to start The Fall of Hyperion. Did you ever continue on with the series?
Keith Law: Not yet. Eventually. I have just 4 Hugo winners left, and two of them are probably dreadful, so now I’m branching out to read other stuff by authors I like.

B: Would you consider Mitch Keller a candidate to be called up after the super 2 deadline, or is he more of a September cup of coffee kind of guy?
Keith Law: I think September. Hasn’t pitched in AAA yet, needs work on the changeup.

and “Peggy”: I know your philosophy is take BPA, but IMO DET needs to take a position player 1.1. If that is an overdraft, couldn’t they then go over slot in round 2? Is that at all a valid strategy? Thanks!
Keith Law: I don’t like that – if the best player is clearly a pitcher, you take the pitcher. Taking someone you believe is definitively not the best player available is a good way to get fired three years later when the guy you passed on turns out to be … the best player who was available.

Jon: Could Kingery be a Zobrist Utility guy or is he pretty much just a 2B? Thanks.
Keith Law: Could be 2b/cf. Highly doubt he’s a shortstop even on a part-time basis.

Harold: We are going to see a 6 man rotation as well as a 4 man rotation with a bullpen game in the 5th slot. Which would you prefer if you were constructing a team?
Keith Law: Probably the latter, but I’m a fan of experimentation in general.

xxx(yyy): any recs for party games that are better than Cards Against Humanity and work in situations where people may be consuming adult beverages?
Keith Law: One Night Ultimate Werewolf and other games of that ilk (Werewords combines it with a word-guessing game; Crossfire switches up the role assignments but plays out very similarly) are perfect for that.

James: With how strong the rest of AL west, at what point should the Rangers just decide it’s time to rebuild?
Keith Law: What would rebuilding entail for them? I’m not sure how much they really have that they would be willing to trade; Hamels, probably, if he’s healthy, and Andrus if we assume he’s going to opt out, but that’s probably it. They have a decent young offensive core in the majors, including a few players who should still have some growth ahead of them. But I don’t see a teardown here, unless you’re arguing they should trade guys like Mazara or Gallo now to try to get even younger and acquire some pitching (which I wouldn’t recommend).

What’s in a name?: I’ve often seen ARod, Josh Hamilton, & Griffey Jr. mentioned as the three most-talented #1 picks ever. Do you agree, & who was the most-talented amateur pitcher you ever saw?
Keith Law: Those three were all before my tenure in baseball, so I’m just relying on others’ opinions; the same community tells me Brien Taylor was one of the most talented amateur pitchers ever. The best amateur pitchers I’ve personally seen are Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole, and Brady Aiken.

Eric: Keith,

What kind of year can we expect from Andy Yerzy? Any worry of him being outshined by Daulton Varsho?
Keith Law: If Yerzy’s power surge was real, he’s a very valuable prospect because it looks like he’ll stay at catcher too. Not many true receivers with 20-HR potential out there. I don’t understand the second question … do players suffer for feeling “outshined?” I know Mark Arm isn’t a fan of that.

xxx(yyy): any faith in Rougie Odor turning things around and being closer to an average hitter in 2018-2019?
Keith Law: I’m quite bearish.

Zac: Who has the higher ceiling between Alex Faedo and Brady Singer
Keith Law: Faedo. I have a hard time seeing Singer as a 180 inning starter

Chris: What’s the best future alignment for Oakland’s infield? 2B Barreto, SS Mateo, UTIL Neuse work for you?
Keith Law: Neuse everyday 3b? I know they have Chapman, but I wouldn’t just stick Neuse in a part-time role when he might be capable of more.

Kenny: It seems like some teams may be kind of slightly be starting to put an emphasis on their hitters making more contact, even at the expense of a little power. Do you think the game has gotten a little too homer/strikeout heavy and that a team may be able to gain an advantage by putting the ball in play more than their opponents?
Keith Law: The payoff from adding power has exceeded the cost of reduced contact. Improved defensive positioning might be the main reason or at least a reason for the latter part of that. I don’t like the homer/strikeout heavy environment, but it is probably a rational strategy for most teams.

Ron: German ceiling?
Keith Law: Die Höchstgrenze.
Keith Law: (Seriously, I don’t know who you’re asking about.)

B: Would you consider Max Fried somewhat of a breakout guy this year? He was over his head in the majors, but I like his stuff.
Keith Law: I didn’t think he was over his head at all. He’s on the list today.

Levi: Tyler Glasnow with another erratic outing yesterday. I know it is just Spring training, but is there still any hope for him to be a reliable starter?
Keith Law: If you believe in the axiom about taller pitchers needing more time to get their coordination together for consistent deliveries, then yes, there is still hope. But the odds are declining.

Jackson: Fernando Tatis is looking good in all aspects of the game this spring. Is the best course of action to have he and Luis Urias play in AAA all year together and come up next year?
Keith Law: That’s the worst course of action because it moves someone off shortstop right now.

Paul: Can Joey Gallo become a .250+ hitter? Seems like everyone assumes that he’s a Mendoza-line guy, but he’s only 24, has gotten better each year, and doesn’t have a L/R split. I just keep thinking he’ll be a monster.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t rule that out at all. Gallo has made a ton of progress already at reducing his swings and misses in the zone and at laying off stuff out of the zone. When he was first drafted, the swing worked, but he’d swing too often and mistime a lot … but he’d get away with it because he’d hit a mistake into the next county. He’s actually cut down substantially since then.

Dan M. : You’ve said that Strahm should be in SD’s opening day rotation but do you think he will be?
Keith Law: It doesn’t seem like it right now, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he got 15-18 starts this year. It’s not like he’s behind the Nats’ front four.

Jack: I’m a nerd so I looked back at MLB drafts from 20-30 years ago and it’s shocking how many 1st rounders never made it. What do you think has happened in scouting to lead to more draft success in the last 5-10 years.
Keith Law: We’ve gone from ignoring a lot of stats to at least some teams paying attention to publicly available stats to using proprietary data and internal R&D efforts to evaluate players. Bobby Witt was the 3rd pick in the 1985 draft despite walking 78 guys in 96 innings his junior year at Oklahoma. That would never happen today. (He was in the majors less than a year later and walked 143 guys in 157.2 innings his rookie year. What the hell did they expect?)

Dougie Fresh: What do you expect from Rhys Hopkins?
Keith Law: I expect him to have a great season, probably All-Star caliber, that feels like a disappointment after the two months he had to end 2017. I would bet on under 40 homers rather than over. Still think he’ll be a 4-5 WAR guy, just not MVP worthy.

BD in DC: Are Lamonte Wade, and Brandon Lowe MLB regulars?
Keith Law: Neither.

Joey Joe Joe: Were you surprised by Brian Goodwin putting up a > .800 OPS last season?
Keith Law: Nothing should really be a surprise in 278 PA.

Zachary: Twins starting shortstop in 2021 is Jorge Polanco? Nick Gordon? Royce Lewis? Wander Javier? Yunior Severino? Or someone else?
Keith Law: I believe if you asked them, they’d say Lewis. I still have real doubts about him staying on the dirt; he has a LONG way to go, based on what I saw (and area scouts also saw) last spring.

Trea: J.D. Davis have a future in Houston? If he got a chance to play elsewhere, how good of a bat could he be?
Keith Law: Fringe regular for someone. Maybe ideally a platoon guy.

What’s in a name?: Yes, it’s spring training, but Billy McKinney has 4 HR. Considering his late-season power surge in 2017, if this is truly another half-grade or so in the power department, does he go back to being a fairly good prospect?
Keith Law: It’s spring training. I don’t even look at those stats.

Dan: I know we should ignore Spring Training stats, but in his last start Vince Velasquez was throwing almost exclusively 4-seamers in what seemed like an effort to concentrate on locating the pitch. If he has success doing so the rest of the spring, is that the kind of thing he can build on in the season?
Keith Law: That’s different from spring training stats and definitely something i’d pay attention to … although in VV’s case, I have always been more concerned about the fringy breaking ball than fastball command. Yes, it’s something he can build on, and it makes him better, but it doesn’t address his main pitching flaw, or the fact that he has yet to stay healthy for a full season.

Nick: Going to PHX next weekend to watch some baseball. Staying in the Encanto village area. Any good restaurant recs?
Keith Law: Search this site for all my recs, but you’re right by Pizzeria Bianco, Matt’s Big Breakfast, Forno 301, Giant Coffee, Tacos Chiwas, and, when it opens, Roland’s Market.

What’s in a name?: I think Ron meant Domingo German.
Keith Law: Solid reliever IMO. Outside chance to start, well below 50%.

Mick: Is there a non traditional baseball country out there ready to bust out w/ at least a few prospects in the next few years?
Keith Law: I’d bet on Brazil churning a few more kids out now that Pardinho has gotten paid and Gohara is in the majors. I know Uganda has become a youth baseball success story lately, and I’ve heard they may even produce some good JC or small college prospects in the short term. I will forever wonder why the Philippines hasn’t produced players; I know they had a long fallow period where the sport withered there, but it has a history in that country going back to when we took it from Spain in 1898.

Brett: I’ve heard rumors that your lawyers offered Stormy Daniels 3-months of free Insider and a Cinnamon Roll Recipe in exchange for silence of your 2012 affair. Those rumors true?
Keith Law: I never signed anything and I don’t know what you’re talking about.

Matt: Why do professional athletes get injured so much? Isn’t staying in shape the general idea? It seems odd we hear about guys pulling a hamstring running to first base.
Keith Law: You can’t be serious. How often in your life do you have to run like athletes run, going from a dead stop to full speed as quickly as possible, or throw like they throw?
Keith Law: (if you throw like I throoooow, then you’re hurt like every day…)

Prospect Expansion Pack: Who would you prefer – Jesus Luzardo or Luis Medina? Debate with a friend about ceiling and age.
Keith Law: Luzardo would have been close to the top 100 had I continued ranking guys, and would have been over Medina.

addoeh: Can Ian Happ be passable in a corner outfield spot?
Keith Law: I’d bet on more than passable. Maybe a soft average.

Stomper: Most Oakland fans seem pretty convinced Chapman and Olson are going to be all-star caliber players going forward. I’d like them to be….but maybe pump the brakes on half-season debuts a bit, right?
Keith Law: I doubt either is an All-Star caliber player. Solid regulars, maybe, more so Chapman (70 glove, 80 arm) than Olson (not those things).

Dan M. : Assuming Bobby Bradley doesn’t struggle in Triple-A, would it be wiser for Cleveland to bring him up? Or do you think Alonso is competent enough?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t project Bradley to outproduce Alonso this year.

Brad: Hey Keith. What do you think is the ceiling for Dane Dunning? Solid #3 if everything goes right or a above average 4?
Keith Law: The difference between a solid 3 and an above average 4 is probably just in the nomenclature. I do think you have the right idea, though; he’s not an ace, not someone who’ll likely be a top 50 starter in baseball, but should be a very solid league-average guy for a while.

Seth Romero: Apparently all I did was a few curfew violations. In college it was the weed picture and a teammate fight. I’m not actually a *bad* guy am I? What else have you heard?
Keith Law: There’s more that isn’t public. Remember he was suspended by U of H, reinstated, and lasted just a few weeks before slugging a teammate, after which he was kicked off the team permanently.

Manny: Which potential 1st rounder in June do you see as having the highest floor and which do you see getting to the majors the quickest?
Keith Law: I’m just getting started seeing players but with what I’ve heard so far I think Rolison might be the high-floor college starter everyone loves, and either Swaggerty or Conine the high-floor college bat.

B: Were you a fan of Chris Taylor when he was in the Mariners system? I remember there being a lot of questions about him staying on the dirt, but he looks great in CF.
Keith Law: He was fine at shortstop, but had no real power at all, just a high-contact guy who looked like he could play a few positions. Thought he was a big leaguer but not a regular.

Brett: Do you think Buxton continues his progression in 2018 and has a better year than 2017?
Keith Law: Maybe a small improvement, but even a repeat of 2017 would be great, given where he seemed to be last April or in mid-2016.

Tom: Do the effects of a juiced ball work for the pitcher as well in terms of increased velocity?
Keith Law: If the issue is the COR, then that would only matter on contact, not just from the act of throwing the ball.

Steve: I’m a Boomer with “big ears” & Always listen to KLaw music playlists. Even the AAA format terrestrial radio in NYC, WFUV, doesn’t play these artists/ tracks. How do I too listen to this roster of artists?
Keith Law: If you’re asking where I find these artists, I don’t have an answer to that. I look in lots of places.

PJ: Blake Snell not eligible for today’s article, but can we expect him on your Breakout list? You still see a future #2?
Keith Law: Breakouts list is next week.

Jim: You tweeted wrong link to the chat I believe
Keith Law: Yeah, whatever. If you haven’t figured out where the chats are after two years on this site, I can’t help you, man.

Kay: Trying to make more use of my sous vide setup – I know you mentioned duck breasts. Any other favorites?
Keith Law: Chicken thighs. Pork chops. I hear it’s great for steak, and I would assume brisket and short rib too, although I don’t eat those things. I have tried it for sausages, but when I went to brown them they overcooked.

Matty: Any chance D Bundy hit’s his previous ace ceiling, or has he simply been worked too hard to get his stuff back?
Keith Law: Worked too hard, still has damage in the shoulder, and Buck is determined to squeeze every last drop of blood from him (and Hunter Harvey, 53 pitches in 2 innings the other day, WTF).

Jake: Should SF start the season with a Blanco/Jackson platoon, or should they put Duggar’s superior glove in CF and see on the fly how he will be able to handle MLB pitching?
Keith Law: I’d play Duggar. If he’s healthy, it’s probably time – he’s either ready now or he’s probably never going to be a regular.

mickey: hey, keith – always enjoy your work. just curious: do your employers mandate that you have to have a social media presence?
Keith Law: I don’t think they do. I was on Facebook and Twitter long before this became a conversation, though.

Nathan: Hey Keith, love your work. Why couldn’t the Pirates get Bueller signed out of high school? Demands to high? I remember him being pretty highly rated and it seems like he would’ve been someone they would have gone after.
Keith Law: They made a good run at him, but there are two things to bear in mind. One is that he was very slight back then, and everyone was concerned about his durability. The other is that he didn’t throw this hard until after TJ. Even as a sophomore on the Cape, he was 92-95. He wasn’t throwing that hard in HS. And if you can find anyone who projected him back at age 18 to be bumping 100 at age 23, I’d love to hear from him.

PJ: Are you bullish on Jorge Alfaro? I know he made your top 100, but just curious if you think there’s still the big bat potential that people saw a few years ago.
Keith Law: Huge power. If he ever gets to a .300 OBP, it’ll be a victory. But 20+ homers with that arm and even average receiving would make him a regular. I know the new staff in Philly has been happy with his progress receiving this spring.

Ted: Which of top ChiSox pitching prospects will be in 2020 rotation? Any likely to be #1 or #2 on that staff? Or is that more likely someone already up like Giolito or Lopez.
Keith Law: Kopech is the mostly likely #1 in that system.

Ed: Could Nolan Gorman end up the best player in this draft? I am hoping he falls to Padres at 7 but doubt he’ll make it there
Keith Law: He could, yes. List of guys who could be that is probably still 8-10 deep, though. I’ll see him next week, but Liberatore is on spring break and I won’t see him till later this month.

Joe: What were your impressions of Pentecost before the draft and do you think he can still catch?
Keith Law: Didn’t see power, questioned his durability (he didn’t catch every day in college), had some swing questions too. I’ve all but given up on him.

Mitch: I didn’t see Kingery on your MLB impact list. Do you think he won’t get a shot this year or something else?
Keith Law: They still have Cesar Hernandez.

Jason: Is Corey Ray gonna make it in the majors? Why has his stock sunk so much after one bad year?
Keith Law: Poor performance that may have been related to the lack of any kind of stride or trigger last year. He’s definitely gone backwards since he was drafted. Also had the meniscus tear that cost him his first offseason and some of spring training but I don’t know if that was really a factor.

Lawrence: I am all for equality in all walks of life. Is it sexist (as some students at Portland State would assert) to comment that men are genetically inclined to be taller and larger framed than women?
Keith Law: I don’t get the Portland State reference, but if you’re talking averages, then that’s just a fact. If this is about, say, whether a woman could play pro baseball, there are certainly women tall enough and strong enough to do so, if they were allowed to play it from a young enougha ge.

addoeh: How many people won’t read the editor’s note in your most recent article?
Keith Law: No one reads those notes. I didn’t even see it until you mentioned it. I had to cut that article short because we had no power in the house for three days and I was worried we’d lose it again yesterday (we didn’t, although we got 8″ of snow).

Larry: What kind of feedback have you received on Brice Turang? Is he swinging the bat better than he did in the fall?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard that.

Brian: Does Arrieta to the Padres make sense? He’s gotta be dropping his asking price. 4/$80mil?
Keith Law: Hosmer to the Padres didn’t make sense. Signing a 32-year-old starter makes even less.

UK Nick: The Reds are kidding themselves with this Senzel at short business, right? I get that they can’t add another zero bat like Peraza if they play Hamilton in CF, but this is likely to do more ha harm than good to their best asset, right?
Keith Law: I don’t really get it; Suarez is a shortstop by trade. Move him there.

Dave: You still a Joe Rizzo guy, or no?
Keith Law: Was I ever?

JP: Are you posting standings/awards predictions before the season?
Keith Law: I do this every year.

Stan: Do you see Turang or de Sedas being the better pro SS?
Keith Law: I think de Sedas. Should see both this month.

JP: Have you ever filled out a March Madness bracket?
Keith Law: When I was with the Jays I did, but I wouldn’t say I knew anything or put any thought into it. Going to a college that isn’t big in athletics (I missed our hockey championship by two years) really affects your interest level in such things, I think.

Tim: I’m sure I’ve read that you don’t play fantasy baseball is that a dislike of it or is it a free time issue?
Keith Law: I do not play it. Some is dislike, some is incompatibility with the job, and some is that I won’t spend free time on anything that is too close to ‘work’ for me. I have lots of great hobbies that have nothing to do with baseball. I intend to keep it that way, for my own sanity.

Bob: If you eat yogurt and granola for lunch, what do you eat for breakfast?
Keith Law: Cereal, usually. It’s one of the only packaged foods I eat.

Billy Bob: Is Judge gonna get screwed by FA? Unless my math is wrong, the Yankees control him til he’s 32. Let’s say he averages 40 HR’s til then. That means he’ll have 300ish HR’s. What team is gonna want to offer him a huge deal knowing he’s 6’7″ and likely to decline rather quickly once he’s past his prime?
Keith Law: Possibly, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Yanks locked him up to a long-term deal that kept him there through his age-34 season or so. I think he’ll be a FA after his age-31 season, which is problematic but would likely still be early enough to get him something in the 3-4 year range … at least, before this year’s market crash.

Nats fan 2018: Do you think Victor Robles sees valuable playing time in the Nats OF this season? What do they do with Taylor then?
Keith Law: Robles is going to be better than Taylor, and maybe he already is. Plus you’re assuming Eaton is healthy – he hasn’t been in a game yet, I think.

Tom C: Would Arrieta to LAA make any sense? Um, maybe not 4 years though?
Keith Law: It would make some sense, although I would say the Angels signing any starter – Cobb comes to mind – would make sense.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week … thank you all, as always, for showing up, for reading, for submitting questions, and for buying Smart Baseball, which comes out in paperback on Tuesday (March 13th). I do not know when the next chat will be, but I will be at Twitter HQ on Tuesday to do a live Q&A around the paperback’s release. Thanks again and happy baseball!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With:
→ March 7, 2018
→ By

Blindness.

Sometimes I get hung up on a specific review, and end up going a few days between posts here because that one book or film is clogging the mental road and nothing else can come out until I figure out what I want to say. The most recent title to do this is Nobel Prize for Literature winner Jose Saramago’s book Blindness, a strange, hypnotic, disturbing-on-many-levels parable about an epidemic of “white blindness” that is unexplained and contagious, leading to the total breakdown of civilization in a matter of weeks.

Characters in Blindness don’t even get names, and throughout the book Saramago refers to them as the first blind man, the girl with dark glasses, the old man, and so on. The first man to go blind has it hit him while he’s driving in traffic, and he turns out to be Patient Zero, as the sight loss is highly contagious. The authorities move quickly to quarantine patients, and in their initial sweep they take in the wife of one of the first patients when she claims she’s gone blind as well – but she hasn’t, and lies just to be able to stay with her husband. The patients are thrown in a disused mental asylum (there’s some symbolism right there) and are told they’ll be shot if they try to leave. They’re given food, irregularly, and little else. The people in the asylum try to organize themselves, not realizing one of them can see, but the facilities are quickly overrun, and later waves of patients arrive, including a group that takes over the food supply, extorting first valuables and later women before they’ll release any food to the remainder of the prisoners. The one sighted woman eventually leads a rebellion, after which a few surviving patients leave the asylum to find the city in ruins, haunted by itinerant groups of blind people trying to find food and shelter any way they can. Through unfathomable hardships and privations, their little group – which includes a young boy who arrived at the hospital alone in the first wave, and a “dog of tears” who has followed them since their escape – becomes more than a means of survival, but a familial unit of people who continually sacrifice to help others, and who can thus persevere until the crisis ends.

Saramago was born in Portugal but lived the last portion of his life in exile in the Canary Islands, as his philosophies – he was a militant atheist, communist, anti-fascist, and humanist – ran afoul of the fascist Estado Novo regime in Portugal and later the country’s still-powerful Catholic Church, which objected strongly to his 1991 novel The Gospel According to Jesus Christ. Blindness was published in 1995, after he’d left Portugal, and became his best-known work, one of the novels cited in his Nobel commendation, emblematic of his fabulist style and with his trademark meandering prose that eschews standard sentence structure for something that mimics the nonlinear, stop-and-start path of human thought.

Saramago despised religion and thought that human love and compassion were the solutions to many ills of modern society; Blindness, at its most literal level, takes this to an ungodly extreme. He puts his characters into a post-apocalyptic situation where they’re not dying, but could die from starvation, poor sanitation, or the cruelty of others. Some of the secondary characters are merely truculent or selfish; others are more sanguinary or malevolent. They’re all recognizably human, however, even in their stripped-down state. The one woman who can see – “the doctor’s wife,” in Saramago’s prose – turns out to be, or simply remains, the most compassionate of everyone, even though her sight means she can see the worst that’s happening around her. With her as an anchor, though, her band of vagrants coalesces around each other beyond just the need for survival, with real affection growing among them, and their empathy returning even as they encounter other blind people struggling to stay alive outside the asylum.

The metaphor of blindness lends itself to too many interpretations for me to ever focus on a single one while reading it. The idea of us not ‘seeing’ what’s happening to or around us is the most obvious one that came to me. After finishing, I also latched on to the idea of the blindness contagion as the popular reaction to autocracy, especially fascism, where people choose not to see the suffering of others as long as they are unaffected themselves – the ‘first they came for the Jews, and I said nothing’ idea, written from the perspective of the first group to be rounded up, who then serve as witnesses and victims to atrocities that come afterwards. This interpretation, which I think is consistent with Saramago’s personal beliefs, recasts the story as a parable of the power of caring for others, and how that is what defines us as civilized beings, more than our ephemeral institutions or customs could.

The one truly unbearable part of Blindness isn’t the violence or the deprivations, but Saramago’s excessive and almost puerile attention to bodily excretions. There is so much discussion of shit in this book that just isn’t necessary – yes, I get it, the toilets are going to back up, especially once the municipal water system goes offline due to the plague – but Saramago can’t stop discussing it, and urine, and semen, and menstrual blood, to the point of … what, exactly? Reminding us that we are still biological creatures, and thus subject to the same demands and needs of the flesh that other mammals have? If he were trying to point out how our reliance on the people and technology behind our sanitation systems are the only thing keeping us First Worlders from dying of cholera, then I’d understand his point. Instead, we just get imagery that detracts from any larger points Saramago was trying to make.

Before you ask, no, I haven’t seen the 2008 film version, and don’t plan to, given how poor the reviews were and how graphic the content of the novel could be. At least the images in my own head aren’t as indelible as those I see on a screen.

Next up: Somehow I’m in the midst of three books – Sing, Unburied, Sing by Jesmyn Ward, Nudge by Richard Thaler (on the Kindle), and The Warmth of Other Suns by Isabel Wilkerson (audiobook). They are, in order, the reigning National Book Award for Fiction winner, the most popular book by the reigning Nobel Prize for Economics winner, and a Pulitzer Prize for Non-Fiction winner.

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→ March 4, 2018
→ By

Oscars preview and picks, 2018 edition.

If you haven’t heard it yet, Chris Crawford and I recorded a podcast previewing tonight’s Academy Awards, but I also wanted to be able to put my predictions here for everyone to see, as well as links to all of the nominees I’ve reviewed so far. As always, bear in mind I am not a professional film critic in any way, and I have no inside knowledge at all of who or what is likely to win any of these awards. I just have opinions.

I’ll do a full ranking of all of the 2017 films I’ve seen once I get Loveless.

Best Picture

Who should win: Of the nine nominees, I would probably vote for The Shape of Water over Dunkirk but would be fine with either winning.

Who will win: I think The Shape of Water is going to edge out Three Billboards given the blowback against the latter’s mishandling of a police brutality subplot that’s treated as a joke. I still think there’s maybe a 5% chance Get Out shocks the world, though.

I haven’t seen: Got ‘em all this year.

Who was snubbed: The Florida Project was my #1 movie of 2017, with only a few films left for me to see to put a bow on last year. I don’t assign letter grades to movies a la Grierson & Leitch, but that would be my only A, I think.

Best Director

  • Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
  • Get Out, Jordan Peele
  • Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
  • Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
  • The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro

Who should win: Nolan.

Who will win: I said in the podcast with Chris that I could see Gerwig (first woman) winning, but I think I’d probably still bet on del Toro.

Who was snubbed: Sean Baker for The Florida Project, making a masterpiece with a cast of largely non-professional actors.

Best Actor

  • Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
  • Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
  • Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Who should win: Day-Lewis gave the best performance. I think I’d prefer to see Kaluuya win, and it was a real breakout role for him, but DDL is just a master.

Who will win: Oldman, who should win for Best Impersonation, but that’s not really the same thing, is it?

I haven’t seen: Roman J. Israel, Esq..

Who was snubbed: John Cho for Columbus, a wonderful movie almost nobody has seen.

Best Actress

  • Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
  • Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
  • Meryl Streep, The Post

Who should win: Of the three I’ve seen, I’d give it to Hawkins.

Who will win: Everyone seems to think McDormand has this locked up. She’s good, but I think her role was much less demanding than Hawkins’ or one of the actresses I think was snubbed.

I haven’t seen: I, Tonya.

Who was snubbed: Daniela Vega for A Fantastic Woman, and perhaps Alexandra Barbely for On Body and Soul or Vicky Krieps for Phantom Thread. This was the strongest category of all this year.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
  • Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
  • Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
  • Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

Who should win: Dafoe.

Who will win: Rockwell.

I haven’t seen: All the Money in the World. This seems like an acknowledgement of the effort rather than the performance.

Who was snubbed: Michael Stuhlbarg (who appeared in three Best Picture nominees this year) for Call Me By Your Name.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
  • Allison Janney, I, Tonya
  • Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
  • Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
  • Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Who should win: Of the three I’ve seen, Metcalf.

Who will win: Janney.

I haven’t seen: I, Tonya or Mudbound.

Who was snubbed: Holly Hunter for The Big Sick.

Best Original Screenplay

  • The Big Sick
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

      • Who should win: I’m torn on this one, but I think I’d vote Get Out here.

      Who will win: I have no idea. I’ll guess Lady Bird.

      I haven’t seen: None.

      Who was snubbed: The Florida Project and Columbus.

      Best Adapted Screenplay

      • Call Me By Your Name
      • The Disaster Artist
      • Logan
      • Molly’s Game
      • Mudbound

      Who will win: Call Me By Your Name.

      I haven’t seen: Call Me is the only one I’ve seen.

      Who was snubbed: The Sense of an Ending, another very good, quiet film that almost nobody saw last year. It’s adapted from the Booker Prize-winning novel by Julian Barnes.

      Best Animated Feature

      Who should win: Coco.

      Who will win: Coco.

      I haven’t seen: Ferdinand.

      Who was snubbed: This category has become a disaster thanks to the change in voting rules I mentioned yesterday, favoring big studio releases over indie films. But there were a ton of eligible films that were #BetterThanBossBaby, including The LEGO Batman Movie and The Girl Without Hands.

      Best Short Film – Animated

      • ”Dear Basketball”
      • ”Garden Party”
      • ”Lou”
      • ”Negative Space”
      • ”Revolting Rhymes

      Who should win: Three of these are great; I’d probably vote “Revolting Rhymes,” which is on Netflix. I reviewed them all in one post.

      Who will win: I assume “Lou” because it’s Pixar. It’s also great, as is “Negative Space.” I am really hoping “Dear Basketball,” easily the worst of the five, doesn’t win on the basis of Kobe Bryant’s involvement.

      I haven’t seen: None.

      Best Documentary Feature

      Who should win: This really depends on what you want from your documentaries – should the film really expose or explain something, or can it just show you a slice of life? I liked four of the five nominees and would probably vote Faces Places by a nose over Icarus.

      Who will win: I think Faces Places so they can put Agnes Varda – or a cardboard cutout of her – on the stage.

      I haven’t seen: None.

      Who was snubbed: I did not see Jane, but given the wide critical acclaim of that film (about Jane Goodall), I was shocked it didn’t get a nod. I also thought City of Ghosts would get a nomination over Last Men in Aleppo.

      Best Short Film – Documentary

      • ”Ethel & Eddie”
      • ”Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405”
      • ”Heroin(e)”
      • ”Knife Skills”
      • ”Traffic Stop”

      Who should win: Of the three I’ve seen, “Knife Skills” is a wonderful watch but “Traffic Stop” (on HBO) and “Heroin(e)” (on Netflix) are both so incredibly important.

      Who will win: I really don’t have a guess on this one.

      I haven’t seen: “Ethel & Eddie” and “Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405”. The latter is on YouTube but I couldn’t get through a few minutes of it because it was so upsetting right at the outset.

      Best Foreign Language Film

      Who should win: Of the three I’ve seen, A Fantastic Woman, which also would have been worthy of a Best Picture nomination.

      Who will win: I think A Fantastic Woman gets this.

      I haven’t seen: I’m going to see Loveless this week, weather permitting, and it has earned critical plaudits on par with the best movies of the year. I also missed The Insult.

      Who was snubbed: I haven’t seen either of these, but thought In the Fade (which won the Golden Globe in this category) or Foxtrot (that trailer looks amazing) would sneak in here.

      Best Short Film – Live Action

      • ”DeKalb Elementary”
      • ”The Eleven O’Clock”
      • ”My Nephew Emmett”
      • ”The Silent Child”
      • ”Watu Wote/All Of Us”

      I’ve only seen “DeKalb Elementary,” which is superb, well-acted, and unfortunately very, very timely. I haven’t been able to find any of the other four online in any format.

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→ March 3, 2018
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Coco and this year’s animated shorts.

The 2017 slate of big studio animated movies was rather dismal, which I think is going to lead to an easy win for Coco, the best of the batch by any measure, especially since some of the best indie animated films didn’t even score nominations. Coco (available to rent/buy on amazon or iTunes) is genuinely very good, if not really at Peak Pixar levels; it’s better than the sequels Pixar has churned out recently, like Finding Dory and Monsters U., just not at the standard set by films like Up or WALL-E or the Toy Story trilogy.

(I suppose this disclaimer is barely necessary at this point, but just in case: I work for ESPN, which is owned by Disney, which owns Pixar, which made Coco.)

The protagonist of Coco is not actually Coco, but Miguel, a young Mexican boy who wants nothing more in life than to be a musician, but whose great-great-grandfather left his wife and very young daughter, Coco, to pursue his dreams in music. That has made the family extremely bitter towards music, to the point where Miguel has to hide his records and his homemade guitar from his parents and relatives, especially his grandmother, who is basically Nurse Ratchet in abuelita form.

Of course, he gets caught, runs away, and ends up crossing over the bridge to the netherworld where the mostly-dead spirits of the recently deceased reside in relative luxury … as long as someone alive still remembers them. On the Day of the Dead, the spirits can come back to visit their relatives as long as someone has put up their pictures on their ofrendas. Miguel can get back to the land of the living, but wants to do it in a way that doesn’t require him to surrender his dreams of becoming a musician, which leads him to chase down the man he thinks is his deceased great-great-grandfather, the underworld-famous musician Ernesto de la Cruz. (Spoiler alert: It’s not him, and God help you if you didn’t see that one coming.) So Miguel has to learn some important lessons about family, sing a song or two, and eventually get back to the living while also restoring a lost link to his family’s past.

Coco looks great, as all Pixar movies do, although I think since Brave they’ve kind of run up against a barrier of animation quality – Pixar films have blown me away visually so many times in the past that there isn’t much left for them to impress me with. This film is colorful and bright and very appealing, especially the spirit animals of the netherworld, but it’s also what we’ve come to expect from this studio. The story itself is just so-so, although there are plenty of sight gags and a bunch of references that will sail over younger readers’ heads but entertain the parents. (Bonus points for getting my daughter to ask me who Frida Kahlo was.) The setup never really worked for me – the loving parents who are so hellbent on denying Miguel any kind of music, not just saying he can’t pursue it as a career, but proscribing it as even a hobby. His grandmother destroys his handmade guitar, which just does not gibe at all with the rest of her character; no matter how mad you get, you don’t obliterate something your child made.

The best Pixar movies all have intricate plots that drop threads early in the film only to tie them all back together near the end. There are no throwaways in movies like The Incredibles or Toy Story – every detail ends up mattering in a big way. Not only is it satisfying in the moment to see a script recall something from an hour earlier, but it adds to the feeling that these are deep, three-dimensional films to be considered on par with live-action movies. If anything, most live action films would be lucky to bring scripts of the density and sophistication of great Pixar films. Coco isn’t one of these; there’s a single plot strand, established early and handled linearly, without much more. Even the complex structure of the netherworld where the skeleton-souls reside felt too familiar, with shots of the great hall and the stadium both recalling similar settings from Harry Potter films.

In a better year, with a better slate of nominees, I don’t think Coco would be deserving of the Best Animated Feature Oscar it’s going to win. It’s the best of the five nominees, and it’s hard for any other studio to match the sheer quality of the CG animation that comes from Pixar. If you go against them on animation, it has to be to choose something novel like the hand-painted cels of Loving Vincent or the visual style of The Breadwinner. (Let’s not even talk about The Boss Baby.) Tim Grierson and Will Leitch put this at #14 on their ranking of all 19 Pixar feature films, which amounts to dropping it behind all the good ones and ahead of all the mediocre-or-less ones. I can’t disagree.

* I’ve seen all five Best Animated Short Film nominees just in the last 72 hours, as they were all available somewhere for free: “Garden Party,” “Lou,” and “Negative Space” were all on YouTube, although at the moment two are gone; “Dear Basketball” is on Go90; and “Revolting Rhymes” is on Netflix. Of those, ”Revolting Rhymes” would be my pick, as it’s inventive, looks fantastic, and manages to develop some characters … but it’s also two episodes of about 28 minutes each, which exceeds the category’s length threshold, so I don’t know if voters have to consider just one of the two parts. It’s based on a Roald Dahl book of rhymes where he reworks some classic fairy tales to add some macabre twists and change the endings, all told here by a Big Bad Wolf (voiced by Dominic West). My daughter and I enjoyed it quite a bit, although I think she’d vote for “Lou” instead. That Pixar short brings the items in a school playground lost & found to life to teach the class bully a lesson. It’s cute and sweet and probably gets the nod on animation quality.

“Negative Space” is a stop-motion piece from Germany about a young man who is remembering how his father taught him his rather scientific method of packing a suitcase to maximize use of the space therein. It’s just five minutes, and there’s a twist that I think you’ll probably see coming. “Garden Party” also has a twist, and the animation of various tropical frogs taking over an apparently abandoned mansion is cool … but there isn’t really a story here.

And then there’s “Dear Basketball,” which I’m worried will win because it involves Kobe Bryant, even though it is clearly the worst of the five. Bryant penned a letter essentially thanking basketball for the huge, positive influence it has had on his life, which is fine, but not munch of a story. The animation looks like charcoal drawings, which is appealing, but ultimately there is just no there here. If it’s not pointless, the point isn’t very sharp. And that’s without considering the fact that Bryant was accused of rape and chose to pay his accuser to make the charges go away – not someone the Academy should want on its stage anyway, not this year of all years. If this were a truly great short film, maybe there’d be an argument for honoring it anyway, but it’s just not.

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→ March 3, 2018
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Stick to baseball, 3/3/18.

I’ve had one Insider post in the last week, this one on the MLB Draft, looking at Florida starters Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar, as well as several other prospects from the Gators and the Miami Hurricanes. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

Chris Crawford and I did an impromptu podcast previewing Sunday night’s Oscars, looking at about a dozen categories with our picks of who should win and our very-much-outsider guesses on who will win. It looks like a few hundred of you have already indulged us by listening and we both appreciate it.

Smart Baseball drops in paperback in just ten days! Buy copies or see more details on HarperCollins’ site.

And now, the links…

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