Uncategorized — Page 106

→ March 26, 2018
→ By keith

The Beak of the Finch.

Winner of the 1995 Pulitzer Prize for Non-Fiction, Jonathan Weiner’s The Beak of the Finch: A Story of Evolution in Our Time should have ended most of the inane arguments still coming from creationists and other science deniers about the accuracy of the theory of evolution. Weiner tells the story of the Grants, a married couple of biologists who spent 20 years studying Galapagos finches – the same species that Darwin spotted on his voyage with the Beagle and that helped him develop his first theory of adaptation via natural selection – and observed natural selection and evolution in action. This remarkable study, which also showed how species evolve in response to changes in their environment and to other species in their ecosystems, was a landmark effort to both verify Darwin’s original claims and strengthen them in a way that, again, should have put an end to this utter stupidity that still infects so much of our society, even creeping into public science education in the south and Midwest.

The finches are actually a set of species across the different islands of the Galapagos, with the Grants studying those on Daphne Major, an uninhabited island in the archipelago that has multiple species of finch existing alongside each other because they occupy different ecological niches. Over the two decades they studied these species, massive changes in weather patterns (in part caused by El Niño and La Niña) led to years of total drought and years of historically high rainfall, with various species on the island responding to these fluctuations in the environment in ways that affected both population growth and characteristics. The beaks of the book’s title refer to the Grants’ focus on beak dimensions, which showed that the finches’ beaks would change in response to those environmental changes. In times of drought, for example, the supply of certain seeds that specific finch species relied on for their sustenance might become more scarce, and there would be a response within a few generations (or even one) favoring birds with longer or stronger beaks that gave them access to new supplies of food. Many Galapagos finches crack open seed cases to get to the edible portions within, so if those seeds are rarer in a given year, the birds with stronger beaks can crack open more cases and get to more food, given them a tangible advantage in the rather ruthless world of natural selection.

Weiner focuses on the Grants’ project and discoveries throughout the book, but intersperses it with other anecdotes and with notes from Darwin’s travels and his two major works on the subject, On the Origin of Species and The Descent of Man. He incorporates the discovery of DNA and how that has accelerated our ability to study and understand evolutionary changes. He goes into the famous example of the white English moth that found itself at a severe disadvantage in the polluted world of the early Industrial Revolution, and how a single gene that determined wing color led to a shift in the moth’s population from mostly white to mostly black (to match the soot covering trees near Manchester and London) – and back again after England finally took steps to clean up its air. This one example is especially instructive in our ongoing experience of climate change, which Weiner refers to throughout as global warming (the preferred term at the time), and opens up a discussion about “artificial selection,” from how we’re screwing up the global ecosystem to antibiotic resistance to the futility of pesticide-driven agriculture (with the targeted pests evolving resistance very rapidly to each new chemical we dump on our crops).

Although Weiner doesn’t stake out a clear position on theism, the tone of the book, especially the final third, goes beyond mere anti-creationism into an outright rejection of any supernatural role in the processes of natural selection and evolution. While that may be appropriate for most of the book, as such processes as the development of the human eye (the argument about the hypothetical watchmaker) can be explained through Darwinian evolution, Weiner does overstep when he discusses the rise of human consciousness, handwaving it away as perhaps just a simple change in neurons or a single genetic mutation that led to the very thing that makes us us. (Which isn’t to say we’re that different from chimpanzees, with whom we still share 99% of our genes. Perhaps David Brin was on to something with his “neo-chimps” in the Uplift series after all.)

The most common rejoinder I encounter online when I mention that evolution is real is that we can’t actually see evolution and therefore it’s “only a theory.” The latter misunderstands the scientific definition of theory, but the former is just not true: We do see evolution, we have seen it, and we’ve seen dramatic shifts in species’ characteristics in ordinary time. Some speciation may occur in geological time, but the evolution of new species of monocellular organisms can happen in days (again, if you don’t believe in evolution, keep taking penicillin for that staph infection), and natural selection in vertebrates can take place rapidly enough for us to see it happen. If The Beak of the Finch were required reading in every high school biology class, perhaps we’d have fewer people – the book cites a survey from the 1990s that claims half of Americans don’t accept evolution – still denying science here in 2018.

Next up: David Grann’s Killers of the Flower Moon: The Osage Murders and the Birth of the FBI, among the favorites to win the Pulitzer for Non-Fiction this year.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: evolution, highly recommended, non-fiction, pulitzer prize, science

→ March 24, 2018
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 3/24/18.

My column identifying some potential breakout players for 2018 is up for Insiders. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

Over at Paste, I reviewed Reiner Knizia’s Sakura, a light, quick-playing game where players all chase the lead ’emperor’ token, but where you can move your opponents as well and try to push them into the emperor, costing them points and sending them to the back of the queue.

Smart Baseball is out in paperback! U.S. Residents can enter a sweepstakes from HarperCollins to win a copy of the book and a phone call with me.

And now, the links…

Former Utah State basketball player Jalen Moore explains in an essay on the Players’ Tribune why he walked away from the NBA to deal with what sounds like crippling panic disorder.
Writing for the New Yorker, Andrew Marantz went inside to see how Reddit is coping with trolls, abuse, and harassment while also considering the need to allow users to express themselves (or else they might not have a business). My personal experiences on Reddit have been largely negative, so while I have an account there, I rarely even open the site.
The Guardian looks at “joint enterprise” laws in the U.K., which led to eleven people earning jail sentences for one murder, even though only one of the eleven actually participated in the killing. The piece argues that the laws’ application particularly targets young black men.
Mari Uyehara writes for GQ about the ‘free speech’ grifters decrying so-called “PC culture” on campuses.
This longread on a snake-oil saleswoman pushing fermented cabbage juice belongs in an April Fool’s joke post.
Here’s an easy tip on how to turn off “platform sharing” on Facebook, now that we all have some evidence that Facebook never bothered to protect users’ data from illicit use.
Brian Wansink, the Cornell food “scientist” who has been repeatedly accused of p-hacking and otherwise manipulating data to produce misleading reports and headlines, appears to have fraudulently accused Joy of Cooking of promoting unhealthy eating.
FEMA ignored requests for fuel from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands after Hurricanes Irma and Maria, so thousands of tons of food went to waste for lack of refrigeration.
The New York Times sent travel writers to five islands devastated by the pair of hurricanes to see how their tourism industries have rebounded, if at all. Most hotels and restaurants have yet to reopen on St. John, St. Martin, and other islands that were hit by both storms.
The newest nominee to lead the Centers for Disease Control is a virologist with a long track record of research into HIV and AIDS … and accusations of scientific misconduct as well as support for abstinence-only sex education, writes Ed Yong for the Atlantic. Robert Redfield also has virtually no public health experience, unprecedented for a CDC director.
The San Luis Obispo Tribune investigates the death in police custody of a schizophrenic man who was restrained, tortured, and who then died while officers watched. An FBI investigation appears to be ongoing.
Will Leitch looks back at baseball’s “tepid” offseason for New York and asks if we’re leaded for labor strife after 2021.
Former Congressman Joe Walsh, now a conservative talk radio host/provocateur, has become one of Trump’s most vocal critics from the hard right. Walsh has defended the Mueller investigation, argued against selling the 2017 tax bill to voters (saying it won’t have any impact for most people), and criticized Trump’s attacks on the press.
Pennsylvania Republicans are trying to impeach the state’s Supreme Court in retaliation for the latter’s ruling against the GOP’s gerrymandering the state’s Congressional districts. I feel like PA residents should send diapers to these clowns’ offices. Pennsylvania had repeatedly shown up in analyses of the most gerrymandered states, as the Republican Party there split up the heavily Democratic southeastern portion of the state to tilt those seats to themselves.
Michigan State Senator and now Republican gubernatorial candidate Patrick Corbeck is a pseudoscience-spouting loon, a creationist anti-vaxxer who is now touting baseless conspiracy theories about electromagnetic radiation.
Harvard Professor Jorge Dominguez, accused by ten women of sexual harassment who also say the school knew about Dominguez’s transgressions and did little or nothing, is retiring, although the investigation continues. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
An Alabama sheriff *legally* siphoned off $750,000 in public money meant to feed prisoners in his jurisdiction and used it to buy a beach house – and then he retaliated against the source behind a local newspaper’s investigation. Maybe this is just me, but I think any locale where this is legal and supported would qualify as a “shithole.”
I’ve criticized Arizona’s government many times for its general lack of urgency on issues related to the environment, including water usage and climate change, but the state’s utility regulatory commission did something very good, demanding that utility APS stop new natural gas projects and boost renewable energy sources. The commission, which comprises five Republicans, has long been a mere rubber-stamp group for the companies it regulates. The state is now in a drought that has been going on since 1996.
France is experiencing an uptick in measles again, yet more damage wrought by Andrew Wakefield’s debunked, fraudulent paper and the various idiots who still think vaccines cause autism. France made MMR vaccination for infants mandatory as of January 1st, so let’s hope that puts an end to this outbreak.
The House passed “right to try” legislation this week, even though it’s not going to help anyone and may just spread false hope while reducing patient access to these drugs through existing, more realistic programs.
The open-access journal Scientific Reports, published by the same group behind Nature, finally retracted a paper nearly two years after they learned parts of it were plagiarized — and after a dozen of its board members resigned in protest that it wasn’t retracted a year ago.
Biohacking is bullshit and probably dangerous too.
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker lost a lawsuit over his refusal to call special elections to fill vacated legislature seats in his state, a policy that would have left some residents without representation in at least one body for over a year.
Georgia Republicans are pushing a bill to restrict voting hours in heavily Democratic Atlanta. I assume next they’ll introduce literacy tests and a poll tax.
Opponents of abortion rights like to claim that the procedure is dangerous so they can pass laws that require doctors who provide abortions to have admitting privileges at a hospital or even to perform the procedures at hospitals or surgical centers. Five states require doctors to contradict known science and tell women there’s a link between breast cancer and abortions. (There isn’t, in case that wasn’t clear.) A new study finds that abortion in the United States is safe, which underscores that these laws are about religion, not about protecting women.
I just discovered that Elena Ferrante, the pseudonymous Italian author behind the bestselling Neapolitan Quartet, writes a weekly column for the Guardian. Her latest entry argues that everything in women’s lives has been “codified by male needs.”
No, there was not a Ku Klux Klan rally at the 1924 Democratic Convention. That didn’t stop people from spreading the lie on social media – or Breitbart from repeating it.
Gateway Pundit, another far-right blog – with White House press credentials – repeated a different lie, this one libeling the Democratic Sheriff Scott Israel of Broward County after the Parkland massacre.
If you own a VR device like Oculus Rift, you can now play the board game Catan on the platform. I tried a beta version back in November and it was novel, but still the same game.
Please enjoy this delightful Miyazaki-inspired tourism ad for the lovely state of Oregon:

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: anxiety, arizona, baseball, guns, harvard, links, longreads, pseudoscience, stick to baseball, vaccines

→ March 22, 2018
→ By keith

Speaker for the Dead.

My annual post predicting breakout players for the upcoming season is up for Insiders.

I read – more precisely, listened to – Orson Scott Card’s Hugo-winning novel Ender’s Game back in 2006, before this blog existed, and somehow have only referred to it once in all of the posts on science fiction I’ve had on the site since then. I thought it was fine, certainly entertaining, with an ending that felt tacked-on (because it was), a good young adult sci-fi novel that followed a fairly typical storyline of “outcast kid saves humanity” but that ended somewhere unsupported by the story that came before. I just read the book’s sequel, Speaker for the Dead, which won the Hugo the following year and takes that tacked-on ending and blows it up into a full-length novel in its own right. It holds together much better than its predecessor, and this time around Card manages to create a few more well-rounded characters, but Ender has become a little bit insufferable, Card’s admirable philosophy comes across in ham-handed style, and if anything this book feels even more like it’s written for a teenaged audience.

Ender, born Andrew Wiggin, has become the Speaker for the Dead after defeating the “buggers” in a war that he learned never needed to take place at all. He now travels through portions of space inhabited by humans delivering funeral orations that attempt to sum up each deceased person’s life in full, rather than, say, delivering the sort of encomia we expect when someone dies but that fail to do the subject justice. Because of the relativistic effects of faster-than-light travel, however, he arrives at planets years or even decades after his services have been requested, which allows much of the action of Speaker for the Dead to take place in his absence.

In this book, humanity has encountered another sentient species, called “piggies” due to their porcine facial appearance, on the Portuguese Catholic-controlled planet of Lusitania. The human scientists on the planet observe the piggies, more formally called pequeninos, and operate under fairly strict rules on non-interference, including avoiding exposing the piggies to any human technology so they don’t accelerate the latter species’ evolution in any artificial way. A plague wiped out much of the earliest human settlement, and Novinha, the daughter of the two scientists who found a cure but still died of the disease, calls for Ender to Speak for the scientist who raised her but was killed by the piggies in some sort of religious ritual after he discovered the secret of the plague’s place in the planet’s ecosystem. By the time Ender arrives, however, twenty more years have passed, Novinha’s former lover (the dead scientist’s son) has also died in a similar ritual, while her son and her former lover’s daughter have fallen in love while also studying the piggies. Ender walks into this quagmire just as the all-powerful “Congress” prepares to sanction the humans on Lusitania for illegally sharing technology with the piggies.

Speaker for the Dead swept the big three sci-fi awards (Hugo, Nebula, Locus) in 1987, beating out, among others, Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale and William Gibson’s Count Zero (the sequel to Neuromancer; my only review of a Gibson novel is of the third book in the trilogy, Mona Lisa Overdrive), which I can only assume from this vantage point was in response to its popularity. Card is offering a sort of pop philosophy in this book about tolerance and understanding – at odds with his longstanding opposition to gay rights – of other cultures and religious traditions, one that is admirable even if he does beat you over the head with that particular hammer. Ender was a regular if precocious kid in the first novel, going through the same kind of boarding-school experience that would later show up in Harry Potter and the Magicians series, but here he’s like a new Dalai Lama with a bit of an ego. (I suppose when multiple planets know your name and you’ve founded a new religion, you probably get a bit of a big head about it all.)

The big advantage of this book compared to Ender’s Game is that Card seems to have learned how to create compelling characters, even complex, difficult ones. Novinha is fascinating, even if there was a note about her that sounded off key to me, but one that involves something everyone has a hard time understanding – why women stay in abusive relationships. The kid scientists all have distinct personalities as well, even if they don’t get the page time of the adults, and there’s at least an attempt to distinguish the various named pequenino characters even though they cycle in and out of the story rather quickly.

There’s some graphic violence in this book – the ritual mentioned above would never make it to a theater if someone filmed this story – that is truly at odds with the overall tone. Card writes like he’s talking to a teenager, and as if his characters are all stuck in teenage modes of expression. Nicknaming the alien species “buggers” and “piggies” comes across as puerile. He also has a simple idea of atonement or redemption, one that I don’t think fits with the events that come before those moments, as if doing the right thing today wipes out all the wrong things you did before. I wish life worked that way, but it doesn’t.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: american literature, hugo award, locus award, nebula award, science fiction

→ March 21, 2018
→ By keith

Klawchat 3/21/18.

Starting at 1 pm ET.

My latest board game review at Paste Magazine covers Sakura, a new game from Reiner Knizia with a high screw-your-opponents aspect to it. I also joined Joe Posnanski and Michael Schur on the Poscast this week to talk season preview and hot fruit but mostly hot fruit.

Keith Law: When expectations make no sense … Klawchat.

Aaron Gershoff: Thank you for not sticking to baseball – one dimensional people suck. How many execs ask you for your advice on players? Obviously you have contacts all over baseball, just wondering if it goes both ways.
Keith Law: I talk to execs & scouts often about players and we share opinions in both directions. Whether that counts as ‘advice’ is kind of up to you. I’d rather not be any more specific.

Jeremy: Can you help sort out the Braves SP stable of SP Folty, Newcomb, Wisler, Gohara, Sims, Allard, Soroka, Wright & Touki? Thanks Klaw!
Keith Law: I have a feeling the natural attrition of starters will sort it out before I do. I think Wright is the top guy in that list, with the highest probability of remaining a starter, and Sims or Wisler at the bottom. Gohara, Soroka, and Allard are all on that starter/reliever bubble.

Sean: Keith, at this point how high can you see Connor Scott rising in the draft? Is the top 10 possible, a la Austin Beck?
Keith Law: At this point, no. That’s not to say it can’t happen come June, but I haven’t heard anything like that on Scott. By this time last year Beck was already getting that sort of hype.

Max: Hi Keith. Why Willy Adames is so high ranked in prospect lists? Is it the sum of the parts? Because I can’t see a single tool that stands out.
Keith Law: Doesn’t have to have a standout tool to be an above-average regular. He’s also hit well for his age at every level, including AAA, and projects to play somewhere on the dirt.

Moe Mentum: Is there anything you *don’t* like about being an Ivy League graduate? Maybe things like loftier expectations, presumed snobbishness, or something else that a prospective student might not consider?
Keith Law: My academic experience there wasn’t great; classes are large, and you’re taught more by grad students than by professors, so while I can say, for example, I took a class from Martin Feldstein (one-time head of the CEA under Reagan), it’s not like I ever got with 100 meters of the guy. It’s also probably not an ideal environment for a student with untreated anxiety, which I was. Being a graduate, however, is mostly upside. I get the occasional asshat who thinks any time I mention my alma mater I’m bragging, but that’s the internet for you.

Patrick: Good afternoon Keith! Which spring training locale is better suited for you to scout, AZ or FLA?
Keith Law: Arizona all day every day. One hotel for the entire month. Florida for me is often a new hotel each night. And Arizona has better food, better weather, and better roads. This may flip when Arizona runs out of water in three to five years, though.

Sean: Keith, Have we reached a point where the only way we’ll see a HS RHP taken 1-1 is if that player agrees to discount his value significantly enough to mitigate his risk profile?
Keith Law: What you will need is a prep RHP who checks all the boxes but has little/no interest in college or a commitment to a strong program. The biggest obstacle for recent top prep right-handers has been perceived price tags.

Deke: Would you consider your minor league scouting of Eric Hosmer to be a hit or a miss? He is a bona fide major leaguer with legitimate skill, but this feels at least multiple steps below what you and others envisioned for him.
Keith Law: Probably neither; he’s had stretches where he’s played like everyone expected, and longer stretches where he hasn’t.

George: Torres to AAA isn’t completely unreasonable, right?
Keith Law: I thought all along this was the right move. I am less enamored with demoting Andujar in favor of major leaguers who are marginally better.

Camden: How would you describe MacKenzie Gore’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Number one starter.

EJ: Obviously the spring is a tiny sample size, but if you were the Angels would you start Ohtani in AAA or in the bigs?
Keith Law: Don’t care about spring stats, as you know. If he’s not able to figure out this delivery issue – I wrote he’s not repeating it and getting to his release point – before Opening Day, I might leave him in extended spring training to get some one-on-one work in controlled situations. I think sending him to Salt Lake is kind of a bad idea all around, other than that the Buzz’s ownership would be ecstatic.

ScottyD in Snowy Malvern, PA: The Blue Jays – Are they trying to contend in 2018 or just holding the fort until the new kids are ready in 2019 like Guerrero Jr., Bichette, Gurriel, Alford et al.?
Keith Law: I can’t see them contending this year; they’d need exceptional health across the board plus several breakout years. I think they’re holding the fort, as you say, for Vlad Jr. and Bichette. I don’t think Gurriel belongs in that last sentence, though.

WhiteSoxAndy: Will Michael Kopech be up this year or will he spend the entire year in the minors?
Keith Law: My guess is he debuts after the All-Star Break.

Seth: I’m happy that Alex Cobb got market value, considering all the players who had to take much less than they deserve. But what in the world are the Orioles doing? Did they have their heads in a ditch and miss the memo on “collusion”?
Keith Law: I liked the deal. As long as he’s healthy, that’s a contract with trade value. He’ll give them some innings they need – their rotation is bad, potentially awful – and there’s still some performance upside here. I don’t love them giving up a pick, but otherwise I think it’s fair value for a good pitcher who should get better.

Andrew: Outside of Acuna, which of the Braves’ prospects has impressed most in Spring Training?
Keith Law: I’ll be in Atlanta camp Sunday and/or Monday.

Mike: How will Anthopolous impact Atlanta’s draft tendencies, if at all? With Bridges still being there, will they still lean towards upside, high school players, or does Anthopolous have a different reputation?
Keith Law: That was Anthopoulos’ preference in Toronto – they aimed high, went for the best player available, took some calculated gambles. I don’t expect a huge shift; if there’s a change, it might be that they’re less likely to take someone like Kyle Muller, who was more stuff and size at age 18 than athleticism or potential upside in command/refinement.

Travis: What are your thoughts on Greyson Jenista?
Keith Law: Weather permitting I will see him in about ten days. I hear he and Bohm are potential end of the first round guys, maybe a little better as college bats always run up the board on draft day.

Greg: Any recent draft buzz inside the top 10? Guys moving up or down?
Keith Law: Too early for that.

Mr. Nerdstrom: If you had to guess, which of the 30 bench coaches in MLB is most likely to land a managing gig in the next couple of seasons?
Keith Law: I doubt I could name even 3 current bench coaches in the majors.

Greg: Thinking about Atlanta’s international limitations, is there anywhere they can shift that money that would make sense and still benefit the organization?
Keith Law: Only if there’s an unrestricted international free agent out there. I guess if Yusei Kikuchi is posted next winter, he’d be a candidate.

Slick Rick Hahn: Giolito looking promising, Fulmer… not so much. Who’s spring means more to you, Giolito’s improvement or Fulmer’s complete lack of command?
Keith Law: Giolito’s stuff improvement means more than his results. I’ve said since he was a sophomore that I don’t believe Fulmer can start. Nothing here has changed.

Preston: What are reasonable expectations for Tyler Chatwood this year? I don’t want the only expectation to be simply “better than Lackey,” but that’s where I am right now. And he’ll at least surpass that.
Keith Law: 150-160 innings of a 4ish ERA and 2 WAR. I know teams that lean heavily on Statcast info believe he has upside based on that, but I think he has other question marks, like control or lack of an effective change, that remain.

Dan: Do college coaches hide player birthdays from prospective teams (or at least not make them publicly available) for guys who are potential draft eligible sophs? Or is there too much coverage now for this info to be effectively hidden?
Keith Law: You can’t hide that info. Even if they tried, the players’ advisers would get it out there.

Boris: breakout players article coming soon?
Keith Law: I believe I answered that with the opening quote.

BRIAN: If you were the Yankee brass, would you consider moving Sanchez from behind the plate? No DH at bats are really available. His bat is probably the best on the team. His catching is “average” at best. Wouldnt the team be better off with him playing 150 games rather than 120 and being beaten up?
Keith Law: If they find a better option, yes, I would, for the reason you cite at the end – an extra 120 or so PA plus reduced injury risk. However, I’d like to see Greg Bird show he can play a remotely capable 1B before giving Sanchez the DH spot.

Alex: What’s the last thing you cooked sous vide?
Keith Law: Duck, I think. Been a few weeks since I busted that out with all my travel and dealing with this weather nonsense. I’ve pushed back three trips now due to weather – two snowstorms here, and one rainout in Georgia.

JP: If the Red Sox come to a roster crunch when Pedroia comes off the DL, would you rather trade/DFA: Leon, Swihart, Vasquez, or Holt? I’d vote Holt, if only because Sale supposedly likes having Leon catch for him.
Keith Law: Probably Holt. Nice bench player, will definitely be claimed if they just waive him, but now I’m punting on Swihart.

Mike: Sean Newcomb looking good this spring with limiting his walks/balls thrown. I can’t help but thinking he could break out this season. What should my realistic expectations be?
Keith Law: Realistic expectations would require ignoring his spring training stats and expecting his control to be where it was last year. (One anecdote in favor of my argument about ST stats: Newcomb’s best start of the spring, on 3/12, came against a Phillies lineup with Adam Rosales at 1b, Pedro Florimon in LF, and Jesmuel Valentin at 3b.)

Ben: Did you get to see Jesus Lazardo in AZ? Is it unreasonable to think that Lazardo could surpass AJ Puk as a prospect by the end of this season? Thanks.
Keith Law: I didn’t see him, but no, I don’t think that’s reasonable to think. Puk is the #2 LH prospect in baseball, and he’s been continuously improving since he signed.

Ryan: I’m a Mets fan who’s interested in seeing how Dom and Rosario develop. Putting aside the issues the team must have with the latter, what do you think fair projections are for both if they are given a chance to play regularly?
Keith Law: The team seems to have weird issues with both, but I would guess Rosario would hit .270-280 with low walk & strikeout rates and maybe 8-10 homers, adding value on defense; while Smith would be more .280/.340/.420 sort of range. I looked at ZiPS for Smith, and Dan has him .272/.324/.430 with 20 HR in 156 g. That seems very reasonable to me too.

HugoZ: To stop the service time games, how about making 90 days on the 25-man anytime during a season be the definition of a “year” of service time?
Keith Law: I believe if you do that you’ll see a lot of guys with 89 days of service each year. Wherever you set the bar, you will see teams respond to it in kind.

Jr: Do teams monitor what other teams are doing in player development?
Keith Law: Yes but player development is much more opaque than scouting (to other teams or to us).

Adam B: If Nick Senzel plays full time at SS or 2B how much does his value increase? Do you think he can handle playing SS?
Keith Law: I think he’ll be well below average at short and it might offset the entire positional gain.

Chris: Tyler Wade could be the Yankees opening day 2nd baseman! That was less of a question than a statement. He reminds me a lot of Brett Gardner, is that a fair comp?
Keith Law: I don’t see that. I like Wade, but he’s not similar to Gardner.

Zach: Keith: long-time reader, first time ask-er. Can Nick Senzel handle the switch to 2B defensively? I assume if so, then this raises his profile as his bat plays up there.
Keith Law: The positional adjustment for 2b isn’t much different, if at all, than that for 3b, I think, so while I believe he’ll be able to handle 2b, it probably doesn’t change his value right now.

Mike B: This may need too detailed an answer for a chat, but I had a question about the overall effect of “tanking.” While tanking may be the best option for a team that cant compete, can we reach the point where too many teams see tanking as the best option and it begins to turn off fans? The optimal course of action for a team, may hurt the league as a whole if too many teams see that as the best option. Do you think we are close to that point?
Keith Law: No, but I think we are reaching the point where the media have convinced a lot of fans that tanking is more prevalent in baseball than it actually is.

Johnny B. Savage: Griffin Canning was reportedly sitting 94-96 yesterday in a three inning stint. *IF* this is true, could be go from a 4/5 to a 3/4 in the future?
Keith Law: No, because I doubt he can hold that velocity as a starter and stay healthy, given what teams disliked about his medicals before the draft.

Jr: I think state funded elections (no outside contributions), and drawing districts with a bipartisan panel to represent districts fairly would fix most of the problems in this country – right or wrong?
Keith Law: Who funds those elections? (I mean, taxpayers do, but they won’t like it.) And who decides how much each candidate gets?

Adam B: Would you move Suarez back to SS and keep Senzel playing 3rd?
Keith Law: Yes, but that ship appears to have sailed.

Dan410: On a scale of 1 to Trump, how stupid is Liriano starting instead of Daniel Norris?
Keith Law: I’m OK with starting Norris in the bullpen for now, but he should end the year with 20+ starts.

Darrell: Is Jordan Hicks projected to be a starter?
Keith Law: He has the potential to be a very good starter. He could also never find enough command for that.

Chloe: What are your thoughts on the WBC? I love it but it seems like a number of participants had crummy years afterward. When else could it be played that might have less of a negative impact? A week off for the All-Star break and a quick tournament?
Keith Law: I would much prefer that All-Star Break WBC schedule to the current one, which is also too spread out. I do like the event for global marketing; the US audience doesn’t care, but they also don’t matter as much because baseball is already popular here.

Rob: What are your thoughts on FIREPOWER? I never would have guessed that a bunch of guys nearing 70 could put out a metal album that good from beginning to end.
Keith Law: Oh, God, no, I thought it was incredibly disappointing. After that lead single it’s just so tame.

ScottyD in Snowy Malvern, PA: Concerning Houston’s OF uberprospect Kyle Tucker – is a mid-2018 ETA too early?
Keith Law: No, I think on merit he’d probably make the club right now, so late June is about right.

John: Thanks for the chat Keith! Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer have both put up solid numbers this spring, do you see either progressing past a 4/5 starter ceiling, or are their numbers due to the level of competition faced in ST?
Keith Law: Probably both back-end starters, yes. Again, ST stats are not useful.

BRIAN: Thanks for the chats! They are the highlight of my week. Boring “salary” question. My understanding is the salary cap amount is the AAV of the total contract. So why wouldnt a team (Yankees/Dodgers/Sox) up against the cap sign a player (example of Moustakis earlier this off season) for 5 years – $32million – with $20m first season and 3 miliion in years 2-5… with an opt out after year one. The salary cap hit is only 6 million this year (with the rest put over to the following year following the inevitable opt out — and after a year of getting “under” the cap)? Is this not allowed??
Keith Law: No, I believe that is not allowed. And probably a good way to get fined, too.

DR: Matt Olson’s ratio of HR to doubles (24:2 in the bigs) has to normalize, right? Is he more or less a Chris/Khris Davis clone (guy that hits many homers, low average, with the occasional high contact season where he’s an all star)?
Keith Law: I don’t think that high contact season is in there. Has years where he’s an average regular, and years where he’s not. Chris Davis is a fair comp, but Olson is less athletic and won’t add value on defense.

Sally fan: Any minor league teams that you are looking forward to seeing this upcoming season? Based on presumed rosters, of course
Keith Law: I won’t look at that until camp breaks, sorry. No point in guessing now.

Marlon Bundo: Am I crazy for thinking Soroka can develop into 1/2? How do you account for maturity when evaluating a pitcher like him who is maximizing his stuff at an early age?
Keith Law: Crazy, no, but I disagree. If he’s that mature right now, then you’re saying he has less growth potential.

Mountain Man: Read an interview that the Nats are starting Kieboom and Soto back in Hagerstown to start the season. That seems a little conservative to me…they should be up in Potomac rather quickly, right?
Keith Law: Potomac’s field is kind of terrible. They skipped Harper over that level entirely because the outfield conditions were so poor.

Zach: What does Blake Rutherford have to do to get himself back on the prospect/top 100 radar? Is it as simple as….hit?
Keith Law: Not just hit, but have the ball actually go somewhere when he hits.

Sean: Mitch Haniger or Mex Kepler: who has the bigger year offensively?
Keith Law: One of them is in my breakouts column. I hope I picked the right one.

Ryan: What would you have done differently if you were Alderson this offseason? Not everything, but are there a couple of different avenues you would have explored/
Keith Law: Certainly would not have signed Gonzalez for anything. If they wanted another starter, they should have signed Lynn rather than Vargas, given what those two guys signed for.

Evan: Is a .360 OBP with 20 HR unattainable for Jeimer Candelario? Does putting him in the two hole make sense for Detroit?
Keith Law: I’m taking the under on that OBP.

Dan410: Do you think Flaherty was ready to break camp in the rotation? Or does he need some more seasoning in Triple-A?
Keith Law: I’m fine with the demotion, but also think he can be a fine fifth starter right now.

Chris: It looks like Marco Gonzales is finally getting back from TJ. What kind of starter do you think he can be for the Mariners?
Keith Law: The last I’d heard on him his stuff was still down this spring.

JK: You often point out that small sample sizes don’t change your perspective on a player. Some of the June draftees shot up the rankings with a small sample post signing (Adell, Hiura). What’s the difference?
Keith Law: There is no difference. The change in ranking has little to nothing to do with performances. After they sign, they’re seen by new sets of scouts and executives, and more information (e.g., Hiura didn’t need/have TJ) becomes available.

Brad: What do you think of Dipoto’s approach of dealing high-ceiling, younger minor league players for higher-floor, closer to MLB-ready players?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t be my personal approach.

The Bilmo: I always prefer to see the film before reading the book. I do’t have to compare the film to the production in my head. You?
Keith Law: Other way around. Book first. Book is nearly always better anyway.

Matt: Hey Keith. What are your thoughts on Keibert Ruiz what does he project for longterm?
Keith Law: If he stays at C, he’s a potential star. Fair chance he hits his way off the position or isn’t good enough back there to be a regular. I feel pretty confident he’s a regular somewhere.

Rhys: As of this moment, in what order would you rank Mize/McClanahan/Rollison/Singer?
Keith Law: Mize, McClanahan, Rolison, several other college starters, Singer.
Keith Law: The Singer thing confuses the hell out of me.

Thaddeus: I’ve heard you mention your favorite thing in the Anova is chicken thighs at 4-5 hours if I remember correctly. What do you use as the temp? And what do you do after? Hard sear in a cast iron or a grill or something else?
Keith Law: 165 for 5 hours, chill, hard sear in a carbon steel or cast iron skillet. If you chill them, the juices in the bag will congeal and you can easily peel that off to form the base for a sauce.

Guy: Any good solo game recommendations?
Keith Law: Friday. Onirim. Pretty much any coop game, like Pandemic. I’ve played Agricola’s solo mode on the app; I think all of Rosenberg’s games offer a solo option (and Fields of Arle is really a solo game), but the setup is a bit long for playing by yourself.

steve: Looks like the Sox are going to carry Swihart on the opening day roster, but not use him at catcher. He appears headed for utility role but has never played infield and limited time in OF. How do you see this working out?
Keith Law: I’m hoping he just gets regular ABs and hits again like he did before he was first called up.

Larry: I heard the Tigers are interviewing HS players to see if they will sign at 1-1 for a steep discount. Do you think that is a wise strategy for this draft?
Keith Law: They are exploring options, but hardly committed in any way to doing this. The Dbacks did the same, and even offered steep discounts to a few players (Garrett Whitley was one), but ended up taking one of the consensus top players.

Richard: Will we ever see pitchers like Greg Maddux return? The ones who relied on control, changing speeds. Instead of simply trying to blow away hitters and blowing out arms along the way.
Keith Law: They’re not gone. Kyle Hendricks is certainly in that mold – strike thrower who gets groundballs – as is Keuchel. Neither throws hard, both live on the bottom of the zone.

Chris: Can Nimmo play a league average defensive CF? Or is he just bad out there?
Keith Law: Average, maybe. I doubt more.

Avery: Is this year the year for Addison Russell? Or is becoming this is who he is? I know he’s only 24 but he has a career .312 OBP in the bigs….I would have more likely guessed that to be his BA.
Keith Law: Shoulder injury last year; not sure if that was all or part of his decline, or not at all, but I think you have to consider the possibility it restricted him.

Lark11: Given the organization’s historical difficulty in developing impact starting pitching, shouldn’t the Reds be overhauling how it scouts and develops pitchers? Do you view Hunter Greene as having increased injury/development risk because he was drafted by the Reds?
Keith Law: I do not, and I don’t think they’ve had chronic issues with scouting and developing pitchers in recent years.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: O’s Fans: With Cobb, we have a good rotation now!
Reality is?
Keith Law: With Cobb, you have two good starters now.

Chris Mays: Do you have a take on Acuña being sent down? It seems to me that if there was truly nothing wrong with it, then AA could tell the truth about why he was sent down.
Keith Law: You can’t send down a player to manipulate service time. The player & union will file a grievance, they’ll win, and he’ll get the service time anyway. So you have to lie. They did the right thing for the team and the wrong thing for the sport. He’ll be back in mid-April.

wade: how old do you think pujols is?
Keith Law: I think he’s older than he claims to be. It would fit the last few years of his career, certainly.

Stephanie: Do you see Mateo becoming a 15HR/30 steals CF by 2019?
Keith Law: 15 HR might be high; 30 steals is almost certainly low.

Peeeeete: How would you predict the Cubs starters to finish in WAR? Q-Darvish-Lester-Hendricks-Chatwood?
Keith Law: Q, Yu, Hendricks, Lester, Chatwood.

Seany: Follow up on Ohtani- there was probably a behind closed doors agreement that he wouldn’t be sent to AAA & would DH. Let’s say he flops at hitting and they go back on their word and decide to abandon it… Does Ohtani have the option to return to NPB even though the Ham fighters were paid $20mm for him?
Keith Law: I suppose he could just walk away, but that’s not going to happen. My guess, entirely my own speculation, is that they’ll let him fail at DH and hope he realizes he needs to pitch full-time.

Dan410: Agree or disagree with the Rangers’ decision to keep Profar strictly in the infield? Thought it was weird since LF is the job that’s totally wide open. (I also like how Profar>Odor has not even been a discussion)
Keith Law: I hadn’t seen or heard that; I thought the plan was for him to be a bench player who gets ABs wherever. I love the kid but he has to produce now to earn regular playing time. If he has a solid April and looks like he did pre-injury or even right when he came back, they can always give him time in LF.

Andrew: Outside of Tatis, which of the Padres’ prospects has impressed most in Spring Training?
Keith Law: I had two lengthy posts on their prospects last week.

Poor Man Quisenberry: Have you seen Nander de Sedas from Montverde Academy HS. What are your thoughts on him?
Keith Law: True story: I was supposed to see him today, about five minutes from now. Instead I am in my kitchen watching snow come down at about an inch an hour, waiting to fire up the snowblower.

Matt S: Hey Keith what are your thoughts on Blaze Jordan and when do you as a scout start to turn your attention to him?
Keith Law: Christ. I had to look this up – he’s 15? A 2021 kid? Call me in two years.

RSO: Do you think acquiring Drury and Walker makes Andujar and Torres more expendable in a deal for say, Chris Archer, Michael Fulmer or another top flight starter?
Keith Law: That may be their plan, but I don’t think so, especially not for Torres.

SPG: You ever been to Venice, Rome, or Paris? Wife & I are going for the first time next month and are in dire need of restaurant recommendations.
Keith Law: I have, but nearly 20 years ago.

mike sixel: Nick Gordon….future second basemam? SS in MN this year, in about 4-6 weeks? SS in the future? Traded?
Keith Law: I believe he can play SS, but they seem to view him internally as a 2b.

Kevin S.: With all the talk about how pitiful minor league salaries are, could a team *choose* to pay them more than the current scale? A draftee or a IFA might be willing to take a smaller bonus if he knew he would be making $40,000/year instead of $8,000/year.
Keith Law: I don’t know if anything prohibits spending more on non-40 man salaries – we had some negotiating room with them back when I was with the Jays and did a few of those phone calls, boy, was that ever fun – but if you promised it before the draft to a player you’d violate the rules. Atlanta was accused of doing this with Drew Waters, allegedly offering him a car in exchange for taking less in his bonus. (The car, if it was ever promised, never materialized.)

RSO: RAB boldly predicted that Aaron Hicks could have a 7+WAR. Crazy or realistic?
Keith Law: That seems high but I’m also a longtime believer in his ability and a 5 WAR season seems entirely reasonable if he can just stay healthy.

Ryan: if nimmo can stay healthy, is he capable of putting up good numbers?
Keith Law: He can be very useful vs RHP.

Chris: Have you noticed any players getting draft helium yet this early in the season?
Keith Law: Grayson Rodriguez in Texas is a big name right now, mid-90s FB from a prep RHP. Noah Naylor was juuust outside my top 30 a month ago, but I think if the draft were today he’d go top 20. Gunnar Hoglund has cleaned up his delivery somewhat so he’s not so cross-body and he’s somewhere in day one at least. Still a lot of HS kids who haven’t started playing yet, though.

Chris: If (big if…) Hunter Harvey can stay healthy, what do you see as a logical outcome? Number 2 starter?
Keith Law: Yes, but he’s yet to have one calendar year in pro ball without an injury.

mike sixel: Would you consider giving up baseball if they succeed in getting Congress to pass a law allowing them to continue screwing over minor league players? What would ownership have to do to get you to stop watching, or decrease?
Keith Law: Giving up, no. I’ll just continue to advocate for players.

Brad: Is there any concern with sous vide and plastic safety (BPA/phthalates/etc.)?
Keith Law: No, because I’m not a chemophobe.

Aaron, Texas: KLAW, just started watching The Wire, and Season 2 was a slight drag. Was that the worst season?
Keith Law: I think S5 was the worst, as it felt very rushed.

Tom from Newark, DE: Keith, will the Blue Rocks have anyone that’ll make it worth me making the 10 minute drive up I-95 to see?
Keith Law: I assume Khalil Lee will be here, at least, although I don’t know that for sure. He’d be worth it – arguably their #1 prospect. Viloria should get here at some point too.

Dave: Do the Yankees seem to be a little overhyped coming into the season? Not that they won’t be good, but aside from Bird is there any regular you’d take even-money being better than last year, health issues excepted?
Keith Law: I talked about this with Joe and Mike on the Poscast that went up today – you can paint a realistic scenario that has them worse than last year, without stretching your logic at all. The rotation seems very volatile to me, in health and performance, and I believe Mike pointed out that nobody important got hurt last year.

MJ: What kind of line do you think Colin Moran could put up this year? Do you believe the swing changes he made in the minors last year will allow him to hit 25-30 HRs in the majors?
Keith Law: I think he’s a 20 HR guy with a regular baseball. With this juiced ball, everyone’s a 30 HR guy.

Josh: Hi Keith, Curious if you ever talk to players you’re scouting, majors or otherwise, when you go on your scouting trips…or if you’d even be allowed. Thanks!
Keith Law: I am allowed but prefer to talk to them afterwards if need be. They don’t really even need to know I’m there. Having 40 or 50 scouts there is pressure enough.

Andrew: I’m probably going to get killed for this by you and your fellow readers but weed isn’t harmless. Weed is what triggered my friend’s manic episode (already had been diagnosed with Bipolar disorder)and why I can’t never know what it’s like to smoke it as I also have bipolar disorder.
Keith Law: Marijuana can trigger short-term psychosis in some people … but it’s still harmless for the majority of folks.

Luis Castillo: Based on Fangraphs pitch values, it seems like I found a third pitch in my slider, no?
Keith Law: No.

Larry: What is the difference between Ohtani and Acuna? Both players could theoretically be held down for extra service time. Shouldn’t Acuna be ticked about the manipulation for his clock and the assumption that Ohtani will not face the same issue?
Keith Law: The Angels are trying to win this year and Ohtani would, in theory, be part of that.

Kak: Is Sheldon neuse the real deal for the As?
Keith Law: I think he’s a very good player, not a shortstop at all, maybe a great 2b/3b/lf type, chance for a regular. Good feel to hit, very good instincts, makes up for limited tools.

Jimmy : Astros farm system top 5?
Keith Law: No. I ranked systems back in January and they were 13th.

Chris: How nuts are the Os for paying (above?) full freight on Cobb on March 20th?
Keith Law: I do not believe they paid at or above full freight.

Kak: What are your thoughts on piscotty this season?
Keith Law: I’m rooting for him. I do think last year was an outlier and that he’ll hit for more average this year; the park switch hurts his power, but I believe everything else will improve.

Chuck: If you’re the A’s, do you bring up Puk in April or May?
Keith Law: I’d rather have him in the big leagues on April 20th than in the PCL.

Corey: tanking isn’t as prevalent as the media makes it seem but how many teams in your estimation are pursuing a tank or tank-adjacent strategy this season ?
Keith Law: Are the Padres tanking if they signed Hosmer to that silly deal? The Phillies with Arrieta? The Marlins, yes, for sure. I don’t think the Rays are tanking, per se, but if you want to argue they’re tank-adjacent I’ll concede the point. The Tigers are way out. The A’s, probably. That’s 4-6 teams. It’s not 10.

James: Draft – could you see MLB go to a draft lottery to try to lessen the advantage of all out tanking?
Keith Law: I could see that, but I don’t believe it’ll solve the issue. Paying minor leaguers and 0-2 players more would do so.

TK: My wife and I are about to strat playing SeaFall with some friends. I can’t remember: did you ever do a full review of it?
Keith Law: I did not. Really liked the concept, but didn’t finish the full play, and I know there was concern that whoever got the lead early would end up winning.

Slick Rick Hahn: Anything new on Lou Rob? I know you were the “low guy” on him when the Sox signed him, just wondering if your opinion has changed at all. Obviously, being hurt now can’t help.
Keith Law: I was supposed to see him two days after he got hurt. I’ll go see him when he’s in Kannapolis or wherever they start him.

Jonathan: Is Shane McClanahan the current favorite for top pick in this year’s draft?
Keith Law: No. I don’t think there’s a favorite, certainly nobody with more than a 40% chance. Mize probably has the best odds of anyone, but that still doesn’t make him the favorite, IMO.

Sean: If Potomac’s field is so bad, why play there?
Keith Law: They’ve been trying to get a new stadium in NoVA for a few years.

Andrew T: If you were GM of Marlins would you have handled situation differently?
Keith Law: That was an ownership call – dump salary, take less in return.

mets homer: realistic expectations on Marcos Molina? Was a top tier prospect before TJ…. still a rotation piece in the future?
Keith Law: Was not a top tier prospect before, and is probably a reliever.

Jared: As a Brewer fan, I love what Stearns has done so far. I also like the Cain and Yelich acquisitions. With that said, doesn’t it seem that the Brewers’ roster is poorly constructed this year?
Keith Law: I think they need another starter from outside the org.

JR: Did you ever get around to watching Man in High Castle on Amazon? I recently read and really enjoyed the book and tried to give the show a go. I made it one episode. Snooze fest. Was bummed because I thought a show expanding on that world had so much potential.
Keith Law: Same. One episode, never went back. Great look and setting, but whoa boy, was that slow.

John: Klaw: any thoughts on this guy Jordan Peterson? Several of my buddies are into him now, but I’ve read he’s big with the alt-right so I’m hesitant to even spend any time listening to him.
Keith Law: Yeah, he’s trash, and probably dangerous.

mike sixel: 7 wonders app is great, and the AI are strong.
Keith Law: Agreed. Just bought the Leaders in-app expansion yesterday.

Matt: Did you hear what’s going in PA? The GOP is so pissed the SC won’t allow gerrymandering so they are going to impeach 4 of the 5 liberal judges.
Keith Law: Yep. I’m not a PA resident, but I would be beyond furious to see this. The legislators gerrymandered the heck out of the state to gain control, and now are claiming that the justices are the ones subverting the will of the voters.

Paul at the Library: Is Winker still likely to overperform Nimmo this year, even with Nimmo seemingly having a job and the Reds currently flirting with a four man outfield?
Keith Law: On a rate basis, yes.

Kyle : Rodon – his career over?
Keith Law: That’s rather dramatic.

Ken: Saw you liked Frank Turner. Big fan myself. Favorite song?
Keith Law: Recovery.

Ray: Spent a few days in Tempe last weekend. Do you ever eat ballpark food out there? There’s a Some Burros tent in the outfield with great carne asada tacos. Best ballpark food I’ve had in awhile, not that ballpark food is that good in general.
Keith Law: I avoid ballpark food whenever possible.

Rob: Do you have a mystery novel to recommend
Keith Law: I’m a fan of Agatha Christie, Dorothy Sayers, & Rex Stout.

Danny from Boston: Bigger upside Kyle Tucker or Willie Calhoun?
Keith Law: Really? Tucker.

JJ: Is Tommy Pham a one-hit wonder, or a late bloomer?
Keith Law: Late bloomer. Had to get healthy and get a solution for his eye condition.

Jack: I get why you wouldn’t scout Blaze Jordan now, but is it valuable for MLB teams to start tracking kids who are freshmen and sophomores?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. I think it’s a waste of resources.

Daniel: Hosmer told fangraphs he’s looked into launch angle and worked JD Martinez’ offseason hitting coach. Assuming he makes the conscious effort, does joining the fly ball revolution give Hosmer a better chance of repeating his 4 WAR season going forward?
Keith Law: Sure. But a lot of players have tried this without getting better results, and I don’t think anyone has figured out which players can pull it off and which ones can’t. FWIW, Hosmer did show plus power as an amateur.

Buck: Don’t you think the Angels sent an army of investigators to the DR to try and uncover any evidence that Pujols is older than he claims? I’d be doing everything possible to claim his albatross contract was based on a lie and get it cancelled in court.
Keith Law: No, I don’t think they did that, nor would they likely be able to do so since they had no problem accepting his age – which was also accepted by the US government when he became a citizen in 2007 – when they signed the deal.

RSO: Re the weed comment: basically any substance can be harmful to people with certain conditions. Water can be harmful to someone who is hyponatremic.
Keith Law: Exactly. Weed is not like cocaine or meth. Marijuana should be decriminalized.

Jake: DO NOT CONGRATULATE
Keith Law: every time I saw that yesterday I kept thinking “DONNA MARTIN GRADUATES” and realized 2/3 of my readers wouldn’t get the joke.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week and there will not be a chat next week due to travel (unless there is another nor’easter … no thanks, i’ve had enough already). Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions. Check out my book Smart Baseball, now out in paperback with a new afterword for 2018!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ March 21, 2018
→ By keith

Forever Peace.

I wasn’t a huge fan of Joe Haldeman’s Hugo-winning novel The Forever War, which described the history of a soldier involved in a war that takes place across several millennia due to the relativistic events of time travel. The science aspects of the story worked fairly well, but his depiction of the declining society on earth seemed homophobic and beyond mere dystopian thinking. Haldeman won the Hugo a second time (and the Nebula) for his 1997 novel Forever Peace, which isn’t a sequel or even truly connected to the first book other than in name, and takes an entirely different tack on the question of what causes wars and who really stands to benefit from them.

In Forever Peace, scientists have built the largest ever supercollider out within the moons of Jupiter, but it turns out that there’s a hitch in the system – if the experiment is allowed to proceed to its conclusion, it will result in the end of the universe, much as real-world opponents of the Large Hadron Collider claimed would happen once that came on line. (We are, at the moment, still here.) This would seem like a fairly straightforward story – the folks who discover what’s amiss in the collider have to convince the authorities to stop it – but in Forever Peace they are opposed by a fundamentalist Christian group, the Hammer of God, that has infiltrated the top levels of government, the military, and academia. Known colloquially as “Enders,” they *want* the end of the world to occur for religious reasons.

The main character, Julian Class, is a soldier who never sees the battlefield, working from a central command center and controlling ‘soldierboy’ mech units hundreds of miles away in what seems like a fairly clear precursor to Avatar’s main conceit. (I haven’t seen the latter movie, so I’m somewhat guessing here.) That disconnection between the actor and the violence s/he causes is a core idea in the book, and also foreshadows our increasingly indirect methods of waging war, like drone attacks in the Middle East that allow us to kill enemies real and imagined without risk to any American lives. When Julian has to take a life, it has a stronger, more profound effect on him than anything he says he’s experienced before, even when piloting the ‘soldierboy’ through Third-World villages and destroying property and crops.

There are also new Neuromancer-esque technologies where people can jack in to a shared network, which can connect your mind to others on the network at the same time, and which, of course, also becomes an interrogation technique. The protagonists discover a way to reprogram people via this technology to convince them of the utter futility of war or violence, by jacking them in with a group of other people for about two weeks, whether of their own free will or under coercion. Accessing the network in this way requires surgery to implant the jack, an operation that is sometimes unsuccessful and leaves the patients permanently offline, occasionally leaving them with brain damage as well. The operations are semi-legal, and Americans cross the border to Mexico to undergo them.

Haldeman’s writing is impersonal by design; none of his characters here or in the preceding book feel terribly real or fleshed-out, and many of his side characters are just props. Doomsday cults are real, of course, but the Enders depicted in this book feel so sharp-edged that I couldn’t take them seriously – it’s satirical, obviously, but the internal inconsistency of these characters, from the top government officials in the cult to the assassin trying to chase down Julian and his girlfriend, Blaze, so they can’t stop the collider, made them feel like cartoon villains.

As with the first novel, Forever Peace left me wondering what exactly the point was. Yes, war is bad, I got that, thanks. Removing the actor from the effects of his actions is also bad. Understanding other people, regardless of background, should reduce conflicts, yep, got that. There’s nothing here you wouldn’t find in a decent YA novel, and the latter character would almost certainly have better female characters than Haldeman could ever create. I know he’s built quite a following for his novels, and certainly his military experience means that his battle scenes are better written than most of what you’ll find elsewhere in sci-fi, but after these two books, Haldeman hasn’t convinced me he has anything interesting to say in his fiction.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: american literature, anti-war, hugo award, nebula award, science fiction

→ March 20, 2018
→ By keith

Nudge.

Richard Thaler won the 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics – or whatever the longer title is, it’s the one Nobel Prize people don’t seem to take all that seriously – for his work in the burgeoning field of behavioral economics, especially on what is now called “choice architecture.” Thaler’s work focuses on how the way we make decisions is affected by the way in which we are presented with choices. I mentioned one of Thaler’s findings in my most recent stick to baseball roundup – the candidate listed first on a ballot receives an average boost of 3.5% in the voting, with the benefit higher in races where all candidates are equally unknown (e.g., there’s no incumbent). You would probably like to think that voters are more rational than that, or at least just not really that irrational, but the data are clear that the order in which names are listed on ballots affects the outcomes. (It came up in that post because Iowa Republicans are trying to rig election outcomes in that state, with one possible move to list Republican candidates first on nearly every ballot in the state.)

Thaler’s first big book, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness, co-authored with Harvard Law School professor Cass Sunstein came out in 2008, and explains the effects of choice architecture while offering numerous policy prescriptions for various real-world problems where giving consumers or voters different choices, or giving them choices in a different order, or even just flipping the wording of certain questions could dramatically alter outcomes. Thaler describes this approach as “libertarian paternalism,” saying that the goal here is not to mandate or restrict choices, but to use subtle ‘nudges’ to push consumers toward decisions that are better for them and for society as a whole. The audiobook is just $4.49 as I write this.

This approach probably mirrors my own beliefs on how governments should craft economic policies, although it doesn’t appear to be in favor with either major party right now. For example, trans fats are pretty clearly bad for your health, and if Americans consume too many trans fats, national expenditures on health care will likely rise as more Americans succumb to heart disease and possibly cancer as well. However, banning trans fats, as New York City has done, is paternalism without liberty – these jurisdictions have decided for consumers that they can’t be trusted to consume only small, safer amounts of trans fats. You can certainly have tiny amounts of trans fats without significantly altering your risk of heart disease, and you may decide for yourself that the small increase in health risk is justified by the improved flavor or texture of products containing trans fats. (For example, pie crusts made with traditional shortening have a better texture than those made with new, trans fat-free shortening. And don’t get me started on Oreos.) That’s your choice to make, even if it potentially harms your health in the long run.

Choice architecture theory says that you can deter people from consuming trans fats or reduce such consumption by how you present information to consumers at the point of purchase. Merely putting trans fat content on nutrition labels is one step – if consumers see that broken out as a separate line item, they may be less likely to purchase the product. Warning labels that trans fats are bad for your heart might also help. Some consumers will consume trans fats anyway, but that is their choice as free citizens. The policy goal is to reduce the public expenditure on health care expenses related to such consumption without infringing on individual choice. There are many such debates in the food policy world, especially when it comes to importing food products from outside the U.S. – the USDA has been trying for years to ban or curtail imports of certain cheeses made from raw milk, because of the low risk that they’ll carry dangerous pathogens, even though the fermentation process discourages the growth of such bugs. (I’m not talking about raw milk itself, which has a different risk profile, and has made a lot of people sick as it’s come back into vogue.) I’ve also run into trouble trying to get products imported from Italy like bottarga and neonata, which are completely safe, but for whatever reason run afoul of U.S. laws on bringing animal products into the country.

Thaler and Sunstein fry bigger fish than neonata in Nudge, examining how choice architecture might improve employee participation in and choices within their retirement accounts, increase participation in organ donation programs, or increase energy conservation. (The last one is almost funny: If you tell people their neighbors are better at conserving energy, then it makes those people reduce their own energy use. South Africa has been using this and similar techniques to try to reduce water consumption in drought-stricken Cape Town. Unfortunately, publicizing “Day Zero” has also hurt the city’s tourism industry.) Thaler distinguishes between Econs, the theoretical, entirely rational actors of traditional economic theory; and Humans, the very real, often irrational people who live in this universe and make inefficient or even dumb choices all the time.

Nudge is enlightening, but unlike most books in this niche, like Thinking, Fast and Slow or The Invisible Gorilla, it probably won’t help you make better choices in your own life. You can become more aware of choice architecture, and maybe you’ll overrule your status quo bias, or will look at the top or bottom shelves in the supermarket instead of what’s at eye level (hint: the retailer charges producers more to place their products at eye level), but the people Nudge is most likely to help seem like the ones least likely to read it: Elected and appointed officials. I’ve mentioned many times how disgusted I was with Arizona’s lack of any kind of energy or water conservation policies. They have more sun than almost any place in the country, but have done little to nothing to encourage solar uptake, although the state’s utility commission may have finally forced some change on the renewable energy front this week. Las Vegas actually pays residents to remove grass lawns and replace them with low-water landscaping; Arizona does nothing of the sort, and charges far too little for water given its scarcity and dwindling supply. Improving choice architecture in that state could improve its environmental policies quickly without infringing on Arizonans’ rights to leave the lights on all night.

Speaking of Thinking, Fast and Slow, its author, Daniel Kahneman, was a guest last week on NPR’s Hidden Brain podcast, and it was both entertaining and illuminating.

Next up: Hannah Arendt’s The Origins of Totalitarianism. No reason.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: behavioral economics, Economics, nobel prize, non-fiction

→ March 19, 2018
→ By keith

I, Tonya.

The very dark comedy I, Tonya, based somewhat loosely on the memoir by Tonya Harding with many winks and nods to the audience, garnered acting nominations for lead actress Margot Robbie and supporting actress Allison Janney (who won) as well as a nomination for film editing, with some critics anticipating a Best Picture nod as well. It is a perfectly solid film, a B+ or a grade 55, funny in several parts, disturbing in a few others, and benefits from a tremendous performance not by Janney (who’s fine, but one-note) but by Robbie, as well as a story that is itself just really damn good. You can rent or buy it now on iTunes or amazon.

For those of you too young to remember this fiasco, here’s the quick recap: Tonya Harding was one of the best ladies figure skaters in the world in 1991, and only the second woman ever to land the jump known as a triple axel. She went to the 1992 Olympics in Albertville, finishing fourth, and might not have skated again for the U.S. were it not for the IOC’s decision in 1988 to move up the next Winter Games to 1994, awarding them to Lillehammer, Norway. (The film screws with this timeline to make it appear that the IOC decided to move the next Winter Games up after Albertville.) In the lead to those games, someone in Harding’s circle hatched the cockamamie idea to kneecap her primary competition for a spot on the Olympic team, Nancy Kerrigan. That knocked Kerrigan out of the Nationals; Harding won the event and a spot, while the USOC awarded the second spot to Kerrigan. Meanwhile, because the men behind the kneecapping scheme were some of the dumbest hoods imaginable, they were all caught rather quickly, and Harding ended up taking some of the blame even though at the time she claimed she had no knowledge at all of any plan to injure Kerrigan. She had a disastrous performance in Lillehammer; Kerrigan earned a silver medal, as Ukraine’s Oksana Baiul won the gold.

The movie version focuses as much on what came before the 1994 Olympics as it does on what every character in the film resignedly calls “the Incident.” Harding’s mother (played by Janney) gets the Mommie Dearest treatment; she’s depicted as verbally and physically abusive, chain-smoking, day-drinking, and just generally an unlikeable battle-axe who, for all her flaws, will push for her daughter to get the training and opportunities to succeed as a figure skater. Harding, it turns out, was born with great strength and athletic ability, but never had the ‘grace’ that characterized so many figure skaters of the time – and the scoring system prior to the 2002 Salt Lake City Games’ vote-trading scandal was a corrupt, impenetrable joke, so judges could and did play favorites with various skaters. The film makes it clear that judges penalized Harding for being (in the script’s words) white trash, because she wasn’t dressed in expensive costumes and didn’t skate all pretty-like as Kerrigan did. (I always found Kerrigan to be technically skilled but boring to watch; Surya Bonali, who was a contemporary of those two, was by far more entertaining, and would often perform illegal backflips on the ice, which I interpreted as a sort of fuck-you to the judges who seemed to just plain dislike her for being big, or strong, or black.)

Robbie is incredible here as Harding; I’ve said this a few times, but 2017 was an absolute banner year for performances by actresses, with Robbie joining the list of at least five I’d say were worthy of Best Actress in a typical year. The hair and makeup are amusing enough, but Robbie nails a certain tenor to her voice and movements that reflects Harding’s background – or at least the version of Harding’s life that she wants us to hear. Janney was considered a shoo-in for Best Supporting Actress from early on in the process, but I thought the character was monotonous, and I don’t think she faced the challenge that Laurie Metcalf did in playing a more complex character in Lady Bird. (I’d probably also put Janney behind Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread.)

Sebastian Stan plays Jeff Gillooly, Harding’s abusive husband, looking like Rivers Cuomo with a taped-on mustache, and provides a dueling and somewhat differing narrative alongside what Harding tells the camera. Stan is superb, and both he and Robbie make the film’s core gimmick, of having characters break the fourth wall mid-scene, often with a moving camera shot, to explain that what we’re seeing didn’t happen or provide other details, work far better than I would have expected. That fourth-wall bit could go very wrong, but here it makes the film funnier and gives the script some more rope for scenes that seem a little beyond the pale. The movie also benefits from a hilariously spot-on performance by Paul Walter Hauser as Shawn Eckhardt, the fat, nerdy friend of Gillooly’s who hired the doofus hit men, and later gave an interview to Diane Sawyer where he claimed to be an international counterterrorism expert and otherwise showed that he was out of his mind. (He died about ten years ago; Gillooly later changed his name to Jeff Stone and disappeared, although Amy Nelson, writing for Deadspin, tracked him down in 2013.)

Harding’s story may not be true; other participants in it have denied her versions of events, and she even implied in an interview this January that she knew “something” was up, even if she didn’t actually order the hit. What seems beyond dispute, however, is that she was a victim of abuse, likely from both her mother and then Gillooly (which fits, as childhood victims are more likely to end up in abusive relationships as adults). In the script, Harding keeps telling us how various things aren’t her fault, and her mother tells us and tells Harding that she keeps blaming setbacks on everyone but herself. If, however, Harding is a trauma victim, then … well, yeah, that’s something trauma victims do to cope. And sometimes they lie, because dealing with the truth means revisiting aspects of past trauma. And of course they make bad decisions. I, Tonya may not have explicitly set out to make viewers feel sorry for its subject, but I certainly did. Whether she deserved the de facto death penalty she received from U.S. Skating – which I notice hasn’t commented on the film, unsurprising as its judges are made out to be snobbish, elitist asshats – is a bit beside the point, as she wasn’t going to the ‘98 Olympics anyway. The question is how history should view Harding; she says she turned into a punch line, while I think other accounts view her as a villain. If you accept nothing more in this film but the general gist of her life prior to Lillehammer, however, you have to see her as a victim first before she’s anything else.

I was a little uncomfortable with how I, Tonya used that violence for occasional laughs, or would shift its tone mid-scene from abuse to sight gag or fourth-wall-breaking, even when the switch was there to allow viewers to empathize more with Harding. There are many parts of this story that are genuinely funny – anything involving Eckhardt and the two nitwits he ‘hired’ to do the job – but the parts with Harding and her mother are truly horrifying, as is much of Harding’s time with Gillooly. The script also assumes too much on the part of the viewer around Harding’s marriage and why she stayed in that relationship, which risks putting too much blame on Harding (“why didn’t she just leave?”) when the answer isn’t that simple. The secondary theme, about how the U.S. Skating oligarchy wanted no part of a woman skater who came from outside their infrastructure and wasn’t a dainty waif dressed in frills, is also underplayed in the script; it’s less salacious than a dimwitted conspiracy to break Nancy Kerrigan’s knee, but it’s more insidious and wasn’t addressed at all until a global scandal blew up the biased scoring system. Harding’s life plays out for plenty of laughs in I, Tonya, but in the final reckoning it’s just not that funny.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2017 best actress nominees, 2017 movies, dark comedy, movies

→ March 17, 2018
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 3/17/18.

My biggest news this week is that Smart Baseball is now out in paperback. This edition has a new afterword covering a few new developments from the 2017 season.

For Insiders this week, I had three posts from the Cactus League, covering:
• Hunter Greene & prospects from four orgs (CIN, LAD, CWS, LAA)
• Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon, and other Padres & Rockies prospects
• Mackenzie Gore and even more Padres prospects.

I also wrote about the Jake Arrieta contract. Due to spring travel, the next chat may not be until April, unless I get a rainout on the road somewhere.

Here on the dish, I wrote up a slew of new restaurants I tried in Arizona this month.

And now, the links…

One true longread this week: Jane Meyer profiles Christopher Steele of ‘Steele dossier’ fame for the New Yorker, which, in particular, shows the absurd, counterfactual lengths to which the President’s sycophants will go to defend him.
The Guardian has revealed how Cambridge Analytica used Facebook profile data on 50 million users, without authorization, to help Trump’s election campaign in 2016.
Meanwhile, the Administration is pushing new voter suppression efforts, like dispatching Secret Service agents to polling stations; fortunately Maryland is already considering legislation to combat such efforts.
This extremely candid interview with former ESPN President John Skipper was illuminating, and also explains why he quit so abruptly, just days after an all-hands meeting where he explained his strategy for the company going forward.
The Iowa GOP is hard at work trying to rig upcoming elections, through such means as putting the Republican candidate first on nearly all ballots in the state. Richard Thaler wrote in Nudge that the candidate listed first gets a 3.5% bump in votes, more if the candidates are generally not well known (e.g., there’s no incumbent).
The Justice Department is fighting for an anti-vaxxer parent in Wisconsin under the bullshit guise of “religious freedom.” The plaintiff was a nurse in a nursing home and refused to get the flu shot mandated by her employers, who fired her, because she’s a fucking idiot. I don’t think that goes far enough: You should lose any medical license you hold if you decline to get vaccinations mandatory in your profession.
The GOP tax bill, or “tax scam” depending on your perspective, was not really tax reform (which I favor), but just shifted around a bunch of giveaways to corporations. The Center for Public Integrity broke down the corporate welfare, including tax breaks for craft beverage makers, a rum tax that benefits distillers on Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, tax credits for mining operations on Native American reservations, and a faster depreciation schedule for people who own racehorses.
Matthew Yglesias examines the truth about public and campus support for free speech in the face of anecdotal claims that ‘political correctness’ is threatening it.
A disabled writer explains what the elegies to Stephen Hawking got wrong about the astrophysicist’s disability. Also, the death of a great scientist was a perfect time for a Republican Texas state rep to show his ass.
Is Russia fomenting anti-GMO sentiment online? One study looking at online coverage of the topic found Russian sites would slip anti-GMO content even into unrelated articles. GMO foods are safe, and public bias against them, which is rising, isn’t based on any actual science.
The Oath Keepers are a white, anti-government, extremist group that has, among other things, shown up unbidden to protect white businesses during the Ferguson riots or to ‘guard’ schools in the wake of shootings. Their founder stands accused of beating his wife and trying to choke his daughter, in a request his wife filed for a restraining order as she seeks a divorce.
The Guardian explores the questions and evidence around vitamin D’s role in health, including mixed signals on supplements and the difficulty of getting enough in plant-centric diets.
Climate change is very real, but FEMA has dropped the term from its strategic plans.
Arizona will hold a special election in April to fill the seat vacated by Trent Franks; it’s expected to go to Republican candidate Debbie Lesko, given how red the district is, even though Lesko denies climate change and blames it on the sun. Her opponent, Dr. Hiral Tipirneni, accepts the science on climate change and advocates increased solar and wind power in the state.
A new study by researchers at the Annenberg Public Policy Center found that people who believe the untruth that the MMR vaccine causes autism were then less likely to accept a hypothetical vaccine against Zika.
Our diets have shaped how our species has evolved, with adaptations like lactose tolerance and lighter skin arising in response to what we eat.
Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald caught up with former Red Sox prospet Ryan Westmoreland, whose promising career was cut short by a cavernous malformation in his brain. He just had his 16th surgery related to the issue on Monday.
My daughter and I both loved this photo essay from the BBC on the abandoned Ross Island in the Indian Ocean, which nature is slowly taking back, as it does.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: arizona, climate change, evolution, links, stick to baseball, vaccines, voter suppression

→ March 16, 2018
→ By keith

Arizona eats, 2018 edition.

I’m just heading home now from an eight-night trip to Arizona, briefly interrupted by my trip to San Francisco to Twitter HQ for the release of Smart Baseball in paperback, and since I was solo this trip I tried more new restaurants than I usually do in spring training, with several I can strongly recommend.

Ocotillo has been on my to-do list in Phoenix for probably two years now, but it’s so popular and distant enough from the AFL parks that it had to be a spring training option. It turned out to be well worth the wait, boasting a broad menu that offered plenty of diverse options and still had some excellent, hand-crafted items. I had the duck confit salad as a starter and a pappardelle with chicken ragout, both of which were good enough that I’d like to go eat them again. The salad comes with an entire leg that has been confited and I believe quick-fried to get the skin extremely crispy, and that’s served over baby lettuces, arugula, shaved fennel, candied almonds, and a citrus vinaigrette. The pappardelle – the menu says “duck egg papparedelle,” as if I’d know the difference – was well cooked, maybe a shade past al dente, with a tomato-based ragout that had white and dark chicken in it and a bright flavor like that of a vodka sauce. The only dish that anyone had that wasn’t a hit was the Brussels sprouts starter, as they were totally undercooked. The space is huge, but there was still a wait on Friday night if you didn’t have a reservation.

Taco Chelo just opened officially on March 9th, although I believe they had a soft open prior to that, and the new counter-service taco-and-drinks joint from Aaron Chamberlain (St. Francis, Phoenix Public Market) is both excellent and a good value. They offer five different taco options – vegetable, fried fish, carnitas, barbacoa, and carne asada – plus several starters, including a pinto bean dish I strongly recommend and chicharrones that could feed an army. They also offer little quesadillas for a few bucks each, and even though that’s not really my thing (I don’t eat much cows-milk cheese), this was outstanding, especially because the tortilla was thicker than what you’d normally get, giving the resulting sandwich (yes, a quesadilla is a sandwich, don’t @ me) more tooth. They also offer a few margaritas, a Paloma (tequila and grapefruit soda), and a few beers. You could easily get dinner and one drink for under $20 here.

Eric Longenhagen introduced me to the Arab market and restaurant Haji Baba, not too far east of Tempe Diablo, an unassuming and very reasonably priced restaurant serving Middle Eastern staples, including chicken shawarma, beef kofta, and lamb gyros. I got the shawarma, which came with hummus, basmati rice, tabbouleh salad, and Arabic bread (I would have called it a pita). The chicken was a little lean but very garlicky – that’s a compliment – and the bread and hummus were both plus. Tabbouleh just isn’t my jam, though; that’s a big pile of parsley, and as Thag could tell you, parsley is just for looks.

Pa’la is the new place from Claudio Urciuoli, formerly of Noble Eatery, as he’s taken his love of wood-fired cooking to another small place that serves incredible grain bowls, a flatbread option that changes daily, and a half-dozen or so small plates from cuisines around the Mediterranean. The grain bowl is just fantastic, and I say that as someone who doesn’t necessarily love that particular craze. It has a mixture of five grains, toasted seeds (sesame, pumpkin, sunflower), roasted vegetables (mine had mostly beets, which I love), olive oil, and vinegar, and is topped with grilled shrimp or halibut. Grain bowls often taste kind of flat and cardboardy, but this one was bright, flavorful, and very satisfying even though it seems light. The contents of the bowl will change with the season, as will the rest of the menu. It’s very much worth going out of your way to find this place, especially if you’re traveling and tired of one meal after another centered around heavy meat dishes.

Barrio Café Gran Reserva is a high-end offering from Chef Silvana Salcido Esparza of Barrio Café (and formerly of Barrio Queen, although she’s no longer involved with that project), offering a five-course tasting menu for $49 per person as well as several a la carte items. It just reopened in the fall after closing for a few months for a “retooling,” and I think they might still need to refine their product, which has a lot of great ideas but very inconsistent execution. The duck taco, for example, was both overcooked and lukewarm when it reached the table, while the halibut was perfect on the inside but overcooked at the edges. The chocolate mousse was by far the best part of the meal, only approached by the amuse bouche that started the evening of muscat-macerated watermelon and a dollop of goat cheese mousse.

New Wave Market is a breakfast/lunch café in Old Town Scottsdale, a new offering from the folks behind the Super Chunk bakery, serving, as you might expect, baked goods, along with some egg dishes, a ‘bagel bar,’ and a Hawai’ian bread French toast for breakfast and coffee from Chandler-based Peixoto. Most of my favorite breakfast spots in the Valley are down towards Tempe/Ahwatukee, which is also where I like to stay, so I’ve lacked recommendations for folks staying in Scottsdale. NWM isn’t up to the standard of those other restaurants (listed below), but it’s a better choice than the chain options in Old Town.

A reader of mine is one of the partners in the brand-new Starlite BBQ, located just east of Old Town in a strip mall along Indian School Road. It’s a sit-down Q joint, like Famous Dave’s but with food that’s actually good. (I have eaten in a Famous Dave’s twice, both times over ten years ago, and both times it made me horribly sick.) I went with Eric and Arizona institution Bill Mitchell, a photographer who also writes some prospect lists for BA, and is as food-obsessed as I am. We ordered a lot of food, and a few extras came from the kitchen, but we agreed the biggest hits were the warm cornbread in a cast iron skillet, the hot fried chicken (which was spicy but very tolerable), the crispy potatoes (baked and then flash fried), the braised collard greens with tomatoes, and the “brontosaurus rib,” a full short rib that is smoked and then grilled to crisp up the exterior. The only item I think we didn’t care for was the smoked brisket, which didn’t have a lot of flavor on its own, in part because the slab we got was too lean, but overall it just didn’t have much smoke flavor to it. Eric and Bill both liked the shrimp and cheese grits, but I skipped the latter part of that. The meat portions are large – the chicken, for example, is half a broiler-fryer, and the brontosaurus rib is quite big given how fatty short rib is – so I’d say order conservatively on the meat and then go heavy on sides.

Roland’s Market isn’t quite open yet, but they expect to open their doors officially in mid-April, possibly with a soft open before that. The new collaboration between Chris Bianco of his namesake Pizzeria and Nadia Holguin and Armando Hernandez of Tacos Chiwas (which I still strongly recommend) will be open from breakfast until late night, with a menu during the day that will combine some elements of each side’s cuisines. I had the chance to sample some of their breakfast offerings, which include breakfast sandwiches served on Bianco’s bread, with fillings like a frittata with carne seca or one with red peppers and onions, both served with an arbol sauce; an asparagus frittata (since that’s in season now) served with a salsa roja; a stack of thick house-made corn tortillas with asadero cheese, smothered in chile Colorado, and topped with a sunny egg; and a French toast-like dish with house-made bread sandwiched around Nutella and served with fresh fruit, no syrup needed. They plan to make their own flour tortillas in-house, as Chiwas does, and the late-night menu will feature Chiwas’ tacos. The space, in a building that was first built in 1917, will have seating for patrons who will be dining in, a large bar area, and a quick-service counter at the front with an espresso bar and pastries.

I also hit a number of old standbys, including The Hillside Spot, Crepe Bar (now using local Provisions Coffee for their espresso), Matt’s Big Breakfast, FnB (still the best restaurant in the Valley IMO), Pizzeria Bianco, Frost, Cartel Coffee, Press Coffee (now open on Apache in Tempe/Mesa, serving food as well), and Giant Coffee (which seems to have dropped Four Barrel?). I didn’t get to Gallo Blanco, an old favorite that has reopened after a two-year-plus absence because its old building was torn down, but friends of mine out there say it’s as good as it used to be.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: arab cuisine, arizona, bbq, breakfast, mexican cuisine, phoenix, scottsdale, tempe

→ March 15, 2018
→ By keith

Ethel and Ernest.

Ethel and Ernest is a delicate, loving portrait of the animator-author Raymond Briggs’ parents, from their first courtship until their deaths after 40-odd years of marriage, a relationship which Briggs concedes in the opening was rather unremarkable. There really isn’t much ‘action’ in this movie, and as such it’s probably not going to appeal to viewers who need something to happen. It is so tender and so realistic a depiction of two lives that you should watch it anyway. It was eligible for the 2017 Academy Award for Best Animated Feature but was not nominated even though it is #BetterThanBossBaby. You can currently rent or buy it on amazon or iTunes.

The film opens with a quick look at Briggs in his studio, where he explains the film in an almost dismissive way, after which the remainder is animated, starting with the happenstance meeting between Ernest (voiced by Jim Broadbent, aka Horace Slughorn), riding his bike, and Ethel (Brenda Blethyn, Secrets & Lies), a lady’s maid whom he sees as she leans out a second-floor window to air out some linens. The story follows their courtship to marriage to years of hoping for a child, only to have the doctor tell Ernest after Ethel gives birth with great difficulty that they should not have any more children. They survive the Blitz, with Raymond sent to the country twice in the Evacuation, and then worry over their son becoming an artist and a hippie. Then they grow old and pass away within a few months of each other.

If that sounds thin for a 90-minute movie, it is, yet the film works because of the beautiful flow of the script from minute scenes of domestic life through even crises like the bombing of London. (It also leads to a number of jokes about historical events, including the ever-optimistic Ethel, when told that new German Chancellor Adolf Hitler will be selling his book in the UK, saying, “That’s nice of him.”) The couple’s love for each other is contrasted with tiny cracks in the relationship, like Ernest’s blue-collar roots and concerns over anything that’s too “posh,” while Ethel aspires to higher standards of class and wishes to see Raymond do the same through schooling. Ernest’s consciousness of his modest upbringing drives him to buy a television, a phone, a car, all of which seems to dismay Ethel, who doesn’t see why they need any of these trappings of modern life and often delivers some unintentionally humorous responses.

Broadbent and Blethyn are delightful and both are so thoroughly in character that it was easy to forget the famous names behind the voices. The animation mirrors that of the graphic novel on which the film is based, with a quaint, hand-drawn look to the characters – all of whom have impossibly rosy cheeks – and an idyllic backdrop of interwar London before the Blitz sets in. Briggs may not have set out in any way to make a great movie, but by telling the story of his parents’ lives with such love and affection, he’s done just that. Perhaps that is the key: He didn’t try to do too much, so the result is just right.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2017 movies, animation, movies

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