Klawchat 2/11/21.

Starting today at 1 pm. I ranked all 30 farm systems for subscribers to the Athletic yesterday, and my team-by-team top 20s and org reports began today with the AL East – Baltimore, Boston, NY Yankees, Tampa Bay, and Toronto. Also, I reviewed the fun press-your-luck game 7 Summits for Paste.

Keith Law: Use your detour, life’s like a seesaw. Klawchat.

RJ: How much of a change does the Khalil Lee trade make for the Royals and Mets
Keith Law: In their system rankings? None. But Lee is now on the Mets’ top 20, which will run early next week, and was 8th on the Royals’ list.

Trevor: Klaw – even amidst the financial uncertainty teams still PAID the top tier players with high-dollar or long-term contracts. Of the four, 5+ year or 9-figure contracts (Springer, JT, DJ, Bauer), which would you be most comfortable investing in holding it’s value?
Keith Law: Springer. That’s why he was #1 on my list – best long-term impact.

Max: I know it hasn’t been a full two years, but are you seeing changes with the Astros under Click re: incorporating traditional scouting alongside the advanced metrics?
Keith Law: Not yet, but I also think he wasn’t able to staff up effectively during the pandemic.

addoeh: Ford Proctor; new compact sport-utility EV being released later this year or Rays IF/C prospect?
Keith Law: Or protagonist in a bad 1980s action movie?

John Olerud: Why do you hate my Mariners? Seriously, though, on a pure baseball front, no matter where one is to rank the Ms farm system overall, it does seem that (despite maybe a few cringe-worthy moves during Dipoto’s “trade a paperclip for a house” phase) for the first time in a long time Seattle might  finally have some workable approach to drafting and development. That said, in knowing what you know and talking to the people you trust to put together these lists, would you agree with this sentiment? Or do you think in your estimation that the Ms ownership would do better not to extend Dipoto’s current contract and look elsewhere?
Keith Law: I do think they’re heading in the right direction on multiple fronts, not least of which is that they’re keeping prospects rather than trading them. I think the confusion among some Mariners fans is that the top of the system is so good – and hasn’t been like this in at least a decade – but it falls off very quickly after the top tier of seven guys.

NYT Parody Lede: Former President Trump may have incited the insurrection at the Capitol on January 6, but these five people in this Ohio diner think he didn’t do anything wrong.
Keith Law: Don’t give the Grey Lady any ideas.

nickolai: Thoughts on MLB’s decision to deaden the ball for 2021?  A return to sanity, or just something else MLB will F up?
Keith Law: Half measure. Really need to see the strike zone change as well, or we’re going to end up with fewer home runs but no reduction in strikeouts.

Ben (MN): The running joke is that you hate every fan’s favorite team, but do you ever get negative feedback from people in the business (non-players or family members)? I’d imagine it would look a lot different than the internet comments, but any angry voicemails or texts over the years saying something like “how can player X not make your list”?
Keith Law: Extremely rarely. It’s what makes fan complaints so hilarious. Team execs know my information is good and my opinions are at least backed by research and evidence (which doesn’t make them right, of course). But this is the time of year when every fan is an expert on the other 29 teams’ prospects.

xxx(yyy): favorite cold weather food?
Keith Law: The most honest answer is pizza, which is also my favorite hot weather food, and my favorite lukewarm weather food.

Deke: I’m sure the massive deadline was a good motivator, but how are you/have you been dealing with 2020/2021-based ennui? I feel like everybody I know has hit a wall over the past few weeks.
Keith Law: What’s really hurt is the sudden arrival of more snow and ice than we’ve had in Delaware in at least five years, so I haven’t been able to run much at all. I’m playing some more games online, and trying to meditate more, but like you I am just over all of this. I will finish all the team writeups by EOD Monday and I’m going to take a couple of days to recharge somehow.

Alex: Looking at the Marcell Ozuna contract as a Braves fan, I can’t help thinking that it was an outright steal. Of course, it feels like every corner outfielder has been underpaid this winter. Since he’ll be playing the field for one more season, how many runs do you think he’s likely to give back with the glove? Do you feel that his negative defensive value is overstated or is he really Adam Dunn out there?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s as bad as Adam Dunn and I agree the deal was great value for them.

Guest: While I’m not disappointed with the Mets offseason (Porter notwithstanding) I thought there were some head scratching moves. The Springer thing I could understand because of DH uncertainty. I thought they overpaid for Mccann. Also, why not try and make a better offer for Darvish? I’d rather get him than pay $40m for Bauer. OR try and get Arenado.
Keith Law: They could have topped the Arenado offer, certainly, although I have no complaints about them acquiring Lindor and Carrasco.

John: Hi Keith! Could you please compare Robert Hassell vs Zac Veen in terms of overall raw tools ? Who is better prospect ? Thanks
Keith Law: I think that question is answered more fully on my top 100 than I could give you here.

Ben: Hi Keith. Thanks as always for your work. Do you hear any scuttlebut or have any theories on why the Yankees seem to have so much trouble keeping their players—at both the minor and major league level—healthy?
Keith Law: Is that true? More so than other clubs?

Fred: Besides Dylan Carlson, which Cardinals’ prospects have the highest ceiling? Walker? Winn? Hence?
Keith Law: Probably Walker, but his probability is low – he has a ways to go with the bat. He’s as raw a hitter as the typical Mississippi high school product (he’s from Georgia, so I’m saying he’s analogous to MS kids, who have the worst track record in the draft of any southern state).

Onion Bubs: You may have addressed this somewhere before, and if so, I apologize: When ranking farm systems, how much do you weigh the top few prospects vs. the depth of the system?
Keith Law: You need both. A system with 4-5 high-end prospects but no depth is not going to rank ahead of a system with 3 high-end prospects but depth of 10-12 more guys with everyday upside.

Chris: Thoughts on the Bauer contract?
Keith Law: No.

Arty: If you’re the Cardinals, given how the infield is looking, do you feel comfortable going into the season with an outfield mix of O’Neill/J. Williams/L. Thomas/Bader/Carlson or do you think they should add another OF to the mix?
Keith Law: I really hope they give Williams a shot. He’s never been an elite prospect but I think he’s a big leaguer, and he may surprise us and be a soft regular.

Jason: Pecota has the brewers winning the central. Do you agree? and, do you think they should sign Turner if they can?
Keith Law: Without doing any real work to investigate the question I would pick the Cardinals.

Dave: Thanks for the time today.  From the prospect stable of middle infielders – who do you ultimately see as the 2B/SS combo for Cleveland?
Kane: What can you tell us about the Diamondbacks host of pitching prospects? Anyone stick out to you as someone who pitches near the front of their future rotation?
Keith Law: If Arias hits, he’s your shortstop, but that’s a huge if. Rocchio at 2b seems like the most probable of their current MIF prospects to stay at a position and hit.
Keith Law: Dbacks report will be up next week but I think Walston’s their top pitchiing prospect in terms of ceiling and also present value.

Chris: Hi Keith I’m looking at the mariners ranking of 13th compared to being 11th last year and noticed you increased the rankings of their 1, 3, 4 and 5 prospect from this year to last and that they retained prospect eligibility of the majority of their top 15. What led to this drop, did other systems improve a lot, was last year a down year, or did the graduation of sheffield and lewis (7 and 10 last year) effect their ranking more so than the addition of hancock (rated higher than white) and trammell (rated higher than dunn)?
Keith Law: There are 29 other teams in baseball and their systems also changed in the last year.

Jason: Thoughts on Keston Hiura playing first?
Keith Law: I wonder if he’s really going to hit enough to be more than a 50 there. He can hit, but I don’t see more than average power, and his other tools are all limited.

Ben: Do you think Brian Cashman sees the Dodgers acting like a big market team with big revenues and feels frustrated that Steinbrenner won’t let him do likewise?
Keith Law: I mean, I could see 28 other GMs playing a symphony on the world’s 28 tiniest violins.

Mike: Hi Keith. Love your books and all your writing! Question about PTBNL. When the Sox have 3 of them in this deal do they have an actual list of names they can choose from in the future or are there just parameters of the types of guys? Thanks!
Keith Law: In this deal I assume there’s a list for each team – you can take 2 of these 5.

Thomas: Your ranking of my team’s prospects isn’t as favorable as some other media outlets’. Therefore, I will choose to assume yours must be wrong. Definitely no confirmation bias here.
Keith Law: Every year.

Jake: I’m curious about what you heard about Seth Corry to jump him into your Top 100. I don’t believe he ever made it to the alternate camp so not even that meager bit of playing time last year.
Keith Law: Instructs.

Reverend Cory: Thanks for all your hard work Keith! Long winded question here. I grew to appreciate and generally love the use of analytics in the game over the past 15 years, but the last 2-3 I’ve started to sour on how organizations use them. Seems like we now have a league where every team is run like a hedge fund. It provides a great ROI for the owners, but it’s taken a toll on my enjoyment for the game. Do you think there is a solution for this? Thanks again.
Keith Law: MLB is set up as an effective profit machine in which it is no longer necessary for teams to win to make money.
Keith Law: I don’t know how you fix that other than creating incentives for teams to win.

MannyKay: I’ve never seen any mention of The Strokes on your music lists. They’re easily my favorite band of the 2000s. Are you not a fan?
Keith Law: Not really. Not not a fan, but I don’t find their music that interesting.

Ben (MN): Keith, I appreciate your willingness to discuss your own experiences with mental health. My wife has struggled to control anxiety, and often has trouble sleeping more than 5-6 hours a night (or less), largely due to her anxiety. The problem can spiral out of control at times, with poor sleep leading to anxiety about sleep, leading to more poor sleep, leading to more anxiety in daily life, etc. It seems to be at least partially genetic as her mom had a similar experience. She has been reluctant to seek help, largely because she is worried they will recommend medication, which she doesn’t want. Do you have any advice for positively encouraging people who may be reluctant to seek help for anxiety/mental health needs?
Keith Law: The most significant point I would make to your wife is that there are many medications available for GAD, and they are effective for many people at low doses that have limited side effects. I have been on SSRIs for over 8 years. I was also worried about starting one, worried that it would change my personality (it did, sort of, but for the better!) or that it would dull my thinking (it has not). I understand the hesitancy, but medication for my anxiety has been an unmitigated positive.

Jake: Have you heard anything more on how teams will organize their non full season prospects without the short season leagues? Any chance we see teams evolve towards 2 complex league teams mirroring hi and lo A ball?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s what will happen, which I think is kind of stupid in that there are communities out there that would gladly host these teams and allow someone to make a little money off attendance while baseball continued to build the national fan base, but instead they’re going to run twice as many teams in AZ and FL in the middle of the summer when it’s a thousand fucking degrees outside and all those players will play in front of no fans.

Arnold: Although the pandemic hospital rates are falling, it still seems like a bad idea to be opening spring training so soon.  MLB proposed pushing back the start, but the players objected and MLB caved.  I am pro-player on most disputes with management, but the players seem short-sighted on this.
Keith Law: The players didn’t object; they held to the terms of the collectively bargained agreement. I do think the season should be pushed back, but I don’t blame the players on this.

Arty: Reports are that Nolan Gorman is going to get a position switch now that Arenado and Goldschmidt have the corners locked down for a few years.. Can he handle 2B or is more likely going to have to move to LF?
Keith Law: I’d say right field.

Eric: Wader Franco+Fernando Tatis Jr+Ronald Acuña+Juan Soto=baseball is in good hands
Keith Law: Yes, if MLB gets more serious about marketing its nonwhite players. Especially those whose first language isn’t English. I think Tatis should be on the cover of everything, in every commercial, and to be fair I’m seeing more of him out there in the non-baseball world than I can remember seeing previous Latino stars, but MLB has to build massive campaigns around these guys.

Guest: Hi Keith, I’m wondering, if at all, how do certain teams developmental infrastructure impact your rankings? For example if a pitcher with the Rays get the benefit of the doubt more than say the Cubs who haven’t developed a pitcher in what seems like decade. I’m assuming evaluators like yourself would say not at all, but even subconciously
Keith Law: No, you can’t do that because any player can change organizations at any time (like Khalil Lee!). The player evaluations are all team-agnostic.

MannyKay: Based on your positive comments about Jahmai Jones’ potential, is it fair to say the Orioles won that trade in your opinion?
Keith Law: Yes, no-brainer for them. I love Jones and think he’ll thrive there.

Chamaco: Apologies if he is on your top 100 list or graduated off of it (and I just missed this), but I was wondering what you thought about Michael Kopech’s potential this year and in the future? If you Google “Michael Kopech,” you find a lot of non-baseball related articles, which can make it more challenging to find good information on him.
Keith Law: He’s on the top 100.

Matt: FYI- Many board games, including some on your Top 100, are buy 2 get 1 free at Target and Amazon today.
Keith Law: I’m looking at the amazon list now – from the BOGO list, I would recommend Splendor, Ticket to Ride, Blokus, Castles of Burgundy, and King of Tokyo.

Chris P: While I think Cavan Biggio is at least deserving of a roster spot, I really think the Jays should try to move him now while his value is likely going to be at its highest. The fact he struggles against quality fastballs is concerning.
Keith Law: It’s fatal. He can’t hit what is now an average major-league fastball. That’s why his best month in the majors has been September – he sees lower-quality pitching and pads the stats against them. I agree, I would shop him now, but to be honest, most other teams see the same flaws. His value is very low.

xxx(yyy): anything specific on the valentines menu for this weekend?
Keith Law: I haven’t planned that yet … I’ve got some CSA options still here and will figure something out around whatever veg I haven’t used elsewhere yet. I have a few ideas at least.

Jose: Do expect fans to be allowed at the minor leagues games this season ?
Keith Law: I do not, and if we’re not mostly vaccinated I don’t want fans at the games even (or especially) if they allow scouts and media.

Dee Arby: What are your thoughts on how we can become a more intellectual society? Or is that just a pipe dream and the masses will always be extremely gullible?
Keith Law: Greater investment in public education. Unfortunately we’re heading the other way, with huge dark-money efforts undermining public education (funded in part by the Dbacks’ owners) or trying to push right-wing ideologies into schools.

Rodney: Loved reading your Jays list this morning. How do you think time at the alt site changes a timeline for a player like Gabriel Moreno? The hitting approach seems advanced for his age, but catching takes time. Could he start at High-A, but see AA this year with a mid-2022 timeline, whether it’s in Toronto or elsewhere via trade?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d say that’s a possible-optimistic timeline.

Chris P: There were a few goons in the comments of an article on The Athletic about the health and safety protocols MLB and the PA agreed on, that were saying this is stupid because it’s all based on fear of something that isn’t *really* that dangerous. Regardless of if they are correct (they aren’t), how can people not see that this is also a huge financial issue. Imagine a player, staff, ump, or someone associated with them dies from Covid when it could have been prevented or at a minimum, addressed by the league like this. The money they’d have to pay out is worth way more than just a few health and safety rules.
Keith Law: Or, if you want to be really callous, the lost productivity when there’s a community outbreak, with associated quarantining, caused by MLB activity.

Santaspirt: I know you look back on previous top 100 lists you make and are always trying to improve your evaluations. You mention specifically undervaluing Goldschmidt as a prospect and using that example to evaluate Hoskins. The majors is littered with players who never made a top 100 – are there any other types you’ve noticed that are being undervalued at the moment? Types who don’t look like much but consistently break in to the show?
Keith Law: You may notice in a lot of my writeups this year acknowledgments of players who are under six feet but still project as big leaguers, even as stars (Corbin Carroll). I think that industry bias is still strong.
Keith Law: I mean, if Carroll was 6’3″, he goes top 3.

Nolan: I’m curious why Bauer seems to be causing such a clear divide within the baseball fandom. The most generous read of his behavior is he’s a troll. That’s just who he is and the online presence he’s cultivated, regardless of your take on it. But people seemed to have reacted so strongly to writers just pointing out that he has a history of behavior that any club would have to consider when deciding if they should sign him. Is that the main issue, that what some view as “censorship” or “cancel culture” is really just due diligence on a guy someone is about to pay an obscene amount of money to? Wouldn’t any club *rather* their 40m a year pitcher not also be an internet troll?
Keith Law: I do think some of his fans view this as cancel culture stuff, but I would be far more concerned that, given the chance to acknowledge his history of bullying on social media and promising to learn from the feedback, he chose to deny it all. That unwillingness to take responsibility for his words and actions does not speak well for the accountability he will have to take as a player and member of a new team.

Zac: Can you explain the difference between a #1 and #2 and #3 pitcher is?I think it would help me understand your prospect breakdown and why a pitchers ceiling is where it is?
Keith Law: I think of them in tiers. There should be about 15 aces (#1 starters) in any given year, give or take a few. Each tier below that – 2, 3, 4 – would have about 30 guys, one per team. There might be 30 Opening Day starters, guys who are first in their teams’ rotations, but they’re not all truly #1 starters who’d be aces on a majority of teams.

Alex: Does Tevin Vavra have enough of an arm to play 2b (one of the Os blogs had concerns of him playing 2b, much less filling in at SS)?
Keith Law: Yes.

Chris P: It has been pretty tough since the holidays with the weather and tighter restrictions, so I just want to say thanks for keeping up with the prospect rankings and giving us something to look forward to. My interest in baseball feels like it’s been waning, so this is coming at a great time.
Keith Law: Here’s hoping we get games soon for us to watch and argue about.

Aaron C.: Any new recipes/cookbook endeavors in klawland?
Keith Law: Cookbooks no, but the CSA has pushed us to try a lot of new recipes. This has been a huge hit – pasta with sausage, broccoli rabe, and chickpeas. I used chicken sausage and about 50% more pecorino romano than the recipe called for.

xxx(yyy): wife and i are going to go back and watch some classic movies she hasn’t seen – any comedies you think that stand the test of time?
Keith LawHis Girl Friday.

Dan: Thanks for that chat even though it’s so obvious you hate my team. I was surprised by what seems like a light return for Benintendi. Had the bottom really fallen out that much for him? Do you expect a return to the performance from even his rookie season?
Keith Law: He seems like he needs swing help, maybe something significant, and/or the Red Sox just felt they couldn’t help him develop any further. I’m shocked – I thought he’d be far better than this, at least hitting for consistently high averages even if he didn’t have 20+ HR power.

Tristan: Reading your org rankings, I’m struck by how quickly the Jays have rebuilt. They started after teams like Baltimore and Detroit who still seem years away from being years away. Is the credit deserved org-wide, or are there key personnel you look at driving this success?
Keith Law: It’s org-wide IMO but I also think their international scouting department deserves to be singled out for their substantial contributions.

Aaron C.: When you penned your “joined the Athletic” piece, you mentioned possibly writing about labor relations IIRC. Still in the cards for you/your editor?
Keith Law: Yes, hoping to get to that soon, now that we’re in CBA negotiation time.

Jon Weisman: Hi Keith. Would you be able to name your five favorite comic-strip characters of all time? (BTW, I’m not strict about it being exactly five.)
Keith Law: Opus, Steve Dallas, Hodgepodge, Portnoy, Calvin.

Dee Arby: Hitters who make the majors by age 20 usually turn out to be stars.  Is this the year Devers goes full bonkers?
Keith Law: He was pretty good in 2019. I’m still a buyer.

PJ: any chance the new CBA will allow players to hit free agency earlier? Seems like front offices are more weary of giving big contracts to 30/31yr olds, and that is what is driving these slow and underwhelming hot stove winters
Keith Law: I’d love to see that. Owners supported it in 1994 – they tried to force through much earlier free agency, I think after 4 years – but I don’t think they would do so now.

Pat D: I feel like this is the least interested I’ve been in the Oscars since before I became capable of seeing movies independently, even though it seems like I can watch all of the contenders through various streaming services.  I’m not sure if this is due to not being constantly bombarded with trailers and promotion due to lack of theater-going, or just general malaise from the year of COVID.  What’s your interest level this year?
Keith Law: Interested but we haven’t had time to see enough contenders yet, and the fact that the overall favorite, Nomadland, is still trying to do theatrical runs not only dims my interest but actively pisses me off. There’s a pandemic going on right now. Nobody should be watching movies in theaters.

Eric: Is Donald trump the worst American alive?
Keith Law: High bar to clear.

Jason (D.C.): If you’re the Rays, what do you do with middle infield when Wander Franco ready? Should they trade Adames or move to 2B? I assume Brujan will be there.
Keith Law: I bet Adames ends up traded. Not a knock on him, but he’d have more value in trade than he would as a 3b for them.

Tom: Can Brian goodwin be a league average OF for the pirates?
Keith Law: No. I’d bet on Oliva over Goodwin, although I think Oliva is a food 4th OF.

Todd Boss: In all your time ranking organizational farm systems, what would you say were your individual best and worst systems?  Like, 2018 Atlanta or 2019 San Diego as best and maybe Baltimore 2018 as worst?
Keith Law: The Angels had the worst ever, maybe five years ago. This year’s Rays’ system would make my top 3. San Diego 2019 is probably the best.

Casey: Do you think the Reds offseason was bad enough that they should look into kick starting a rebuild? Suarez and Gray look like great trade assets, and with the coming compensatory picks, that could move the Farm System in the top 10 in my opinion.
Keith Law: I’d trade Suarez to try to fill shortstop, move Senzel back to the infield, and still hope to compete this year.

xxx(yyy): What prospect were you the most “sure” on that ended up missing? Why? Assuming that guys like Josh Hamilton doesn’t really count since his issues were off the field-based
Keith Law: Justin Smoak.
Keith Law: It wasn’t just me – I remember pro scouts seeing him in his first go-round in pro ball, saying how did this guy get to the 11th pick.

Adam: Should the Padres regret not delaying Tatis’ service time? He’s already two years closer to FA without even playing 162 games.
Keith Law: I don’t think they regret it one bit after that playoff run in 2020.

JL: Assuming they have rotational health this year (a big assumption), what happens with Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint and Bryse Wilson? Especially for Wright and Touki, proving they can pitch in AAA isn’t the problem. If feels like a waste to have them not getting big league innings. Will it hurt development to have them pitch in Gwinnett for most of another season?
Keith Law: I’d put Touki in a longman role. He needs reps in the majors and that’s the best way to get them.

Sim: You mentioned in your last chat that Oneil Cruz’s legal issues had no bearing on him dropping off of your top-100. Was there something specific in his performance in the Dominican this past year that caused you to drop him 30+ spots in the rankings? I’m assuming the Pirates list will clarify some things.
Keith Law: There is no “dropping.” This isn’t Billboard where players move up or down with a bullet. I start each list from scratch.
Keith Law: I couldn’t tell you without looking where O’Neil Cruz was a year ago on my rankings. I can tell you I really don’t think he’s a shortstop.

Eric: Is a regular-stuffed Oreo still an Oreo?
Keith Law: That is the only Oreo.

Scully: In the Red Sox ’21 prospect rankings, you mention Dalbec could wind up on the roster depending what they do with Devers.  Would that be a positional move to 1B for Rafael?
Keith Law: Yes, I know that’s been discussed.

Ed: What do you see as probability of a Vlad Jr breakout this year? He seems to be more committed after his down, by his standards,  last season and seeing his contemporaries explode on the scene.
Keith Law: It’s really about the swing. He’s a bright enough kid to figure it out on his own but my understanding is he’s not someone they’re going to be able to take aside for a whole swing optimization.

nb: Keith – Mazel Tov on the wedding!  Glad something good came out of 2020!  I get that the Phillies system is bad, but do you think there’s hope for it to move up?  Seems like the oast 2 drafts have been good and they have some younger guys like Kendall Simmons.  Thanks!
Keith Law: I agree. Also one of their best prospects, Luis Garcia, had a horrible 2019 (not entirely his fault) and didn’t get 2020 to reestablish himself.

Scully: I’m sure you’ll write up an analysis of the KC-BOST-NYM trade… any quick thoughts you’d like to share here?
Keith Law: I won’t write it up, not with 3 players’ identities still unknown.

JL: No question, but just wanted to say that I re-read Smart Baseball this winter and am halfway through Inside Game and they’re two of the best books I’ve read in a long time. I even got a co-worker who is marginally interested in baseball to read Smart Baseball and he loved it.
Keith Law: Thank you. You can pre-order the paperback edition of The Inside Game, due out April 6th.
Keith Law: Sorry, I suddenly needed to eat some Oreos.

Paul: What does GM do all day? Not sarcastic, but when they’re saying we’re monitoring the trade market etc. does that mean they’re on the phone with 29 other GMs just asking if they’re buying or selling? If you’re Al Avila and you’re know you’re not making any big moves in the offseason – what are they doing all week?
Keith Law: Running an entire organization. The job of a GM is a lot more than just player acquisitions.

Jim Ed: Thoughts on the Red Sox returns in the Beni trade?
Keith Law: I like PTBNL #2 more than PTBNL #1 or PTBNL #3.

Jeb: No desire to have this posted. Just wanted to say thanks, as an Athletic subscriber. Love the content. I used your signup code so hopefully you get credit for my account in some manner.
Keith Law: I do get ‘credit,’ at least in the sense that the Athletic keeps track of such things, and I do too to see what readers particularly like or don’t like.

Ridley: I’ve seen you list “True Faith” as a perfect song and I wholeheartedly agree. Are there any others on your list? *stares in “Under The Milky Way”*
Keith Law: Great song as well.

Don Gately: the O’Neill Cruz situation just kind of went away and it seems like he’ll just be back with the club for spring. Was anything released about how/why it didn’t go further?
Keith Law: He was exonerated. And most importantly alcohol was not a factor.

Eric: @Ben – I have severe anxiety disorder. It took a full-on breakdown for me to seek help, and I wish I had sooner. Lexapro (for anxiety) and thc/cbd (For sleep) have been godsends.
Keith Law: I can’t vouch for the weed part personally but I appreciate your comments here.

John Olerud: Thank you so much for your response. If there is time for a follow up and continuing on with what you said: even if the Ms or any top-heavy farm system lacks depth, if they were to “really hit” on, say, four or more of those top 7 (given the overall quality of that bunch), would  you say they might be in a better position to compete down the road than some of the teams you rank above? That is, given that generally teams are trying to get as much value or WAR as they can out of each key position on the field, I guess I’m just wondering or trying to calibrate how to assess quality vs. quantity in a albeit unrealistic vacuum where every prospect were to reach their “future value” potential.
Keith Law: OK, but then why are we assuming the M’s will hit on 4 of those top 7 but not assuming a similar ‘hit’ rate for any clubs around them?

J. hawley: IF YOU KEEP CANCELING AND SILENCING ME I WILL KEEP GOING ON NATIONAL NEWS SHOWS TO TELL YOU HOW SILENCED I AM BEING!
Keith Law: I worry he’s going to end up some sort of hero to the alt-white and will end up a strong candidate in the 2024 primaries, which we’ve now seen, at least on the GOP side, are structured in a way that favors extreme candidates.

Dan: You called Mick Abel the best HS arm in last year’s draft, but he finished in your ‘just missed’ range. Is it especially difficult for a HS pitcher to make the top 100 just due to the proximity to the majors? Or was it a less than stellar HS pitcher class?
Keith Law: In The Inside Game I went through the history of high school pitchers in the draft, especially in the first round, and their lower success rate relative to other classes of players. I incorporated that into my draft rankings and am doing so as well in my pro rankings. It’s about avoiding bias in the rankings – I love Abel and think he’s a stud, but the base rate for HS pitchers just out of the draft is low.

Perry’s Relief Core: Was Jordyn Adams anywhere near your Top 100? Thanks for taking the time, Keith.
Keith Law: No. 80 runner, 80 athlete, but if you put him in the majors now it might be a 30 hit tool.

Kelsey: How diverse is the scouting world? How many women are in the industry?
Keith Law: Few women, but when I worked for the Jays I don’t believe there were any women in baseball operations jobs other than office roles. Now there are a few dozen, I think. We’re at the point where a team hiring a woman as a scout is no longer notable, and that’s great. What we need now is more GMs who come from underrepresented minority groups, and more managers too.

Uli Jon: I always mean to tell you that the Athletic comments section is not the cesspool those things tend to be, not vintage Deadspin but usually well thought out and some good interaction with writers.  Then the “Keith Law hates my team” brigade came out yesterday.  Hoo boy.
Keith Law: Yep. I didn’t even look at the comment thread yesterday, because if I want whines I’ll go to the liquor store.

Jason: Can Corbin Burnes be a Cy Young GUY?
Keith Law: Yes.

Morris: Been following you a long time, and my two favorite accusations of bias against you all time are 1) you get both “Klaw hates the Jays because he used to work for them” and “Klaw overrates the Jays because he used to work for them” and 2) “Klaw hates Lavarnway because he went to Yale.” What are your favorites?
Keith Law: I forgot about Lavarnway. The people who insist I hate the Yankees are extra-special, since I grew up a Yankee fan and my parents & sister are still Yankee fans, and my grandmother was one until she was about 98 or so. Also, anyone crying about East Coast bias really needs a pacifier.
Keith Law: My patience for these complaints declines every year. Grow up already. I do not have the capacity to hold all of these supposed biases against teams in my head. My cognitive load is high enough as it is.

JT: Are you still very much hopeful for Tirso Ornelas? Do we just have to be patient until we have some game action for him?
Keith Law: Yes.

PJ: What do you think would be the key to getting us consistent games under 3 hours?
Keith Law: Fewer commercial breaks. No commercial breaks for pitching changes. And raise the bottom of the strike zone.
Keith Law: We’re not getting to 2.5 hour games, though. That’s over.

Jason: When ranking farm systems, do you assign points (e.g., players’ FV, probability, etc.), or is it more of a feel?
Keith Law: It’s feel. Any point system would be arbitrary at its heart.

Jill: Do you own any Bitcoin? Or any crypto? Thoughts on it?
Keith Law: No. I doubt its long-term value, and it is an environmental disaster.

Uli Jon: Forgot to say…congratulations to you and your bride.  Best wishes to the new family.
Keith Law: Thank you. Approaching our one month anniversary (menoversary?) already!

Jimmy: Any good deals to sign up for The Athletic you have in your pocket?  Looking forward to signing up!
Keith Law: theathletic.com/klaw is the current promotion.

Guest: Re Austin Wells- I thought you list a prospect at a position where you think he’ll play but you list him as a catcher despite your (apparently majority view) he can’t catch. Where does he play- RF? 1B?
Keith Law: No, I list guys where they play now. Not sure where he’ll best profile.

Monte: Just to second what you said for Ben, I resisted getting help for depression/anxiety until this past year (I’m 37) for the same reasons (changing my personality, becoming a Xanax Zombie, etc.).  It’s nothing like that.  Outdated stereotypes.  All it does it let my brain quiet down and not freak out about, like, laundry.
Keith Law: Exactly. I could really get anxious about some ridiculous things. Or, frequently, nothing.

Don Gately: Plans to read A Children’s Bible? Loved the voice
Keith Law: I had not heard about this book but it looks interesting.

Tom C: The team hate accusations have been hilarious as usual. Take the Orioles fans – I looked it up, the team has made the playoffs 3 times this century. They have 6 total winning seasons. What have they been so happy about that they get mad because your assessment doesn’t match other reviews?
Keith Law: Also, the expectation that a team that has completely ignored international scouting – you know, where the best player in the NL came from, where the #1 and #3 prospects on my top 100 came from as well as the guys at 16 and 19 and 20 and 24 and 25 and 25 – for a decade, and that has zero international prospects of their own signing in their top 20, would have a top ten system is delusional.

John: Friends in Baltimore are worried the O’s are eventually going to leave, with Nashville as a potential destination. Have you heard these rumors and, if so, any sense of it actually happening?
Keith Law: I’ve never heard that. Only one team has relocated in my lifetime, and that was an extraordinary situation. MLB does not want to allow franchise relocations without an extremely high bar to clear. They just want to use the relocations as a threat.

Tom: Can singer be a good number 3? He’s got the command for it i feel like
Keith Law: He doesn’t have the command and he doesn’t have the third pitch for it.

Appa Yip Yip: Cancel culture isn’t real. Anyone who claims to have been “cancelled” is just experiencing consequences for the first time and they still get to publish self indulgent screeds on the opinion pages of the new york times. The literal opposite of having their voice taken away.
Keith Law: I agree. Bari Weiss got “cancelled,” even though her entire career started with her trying to cancel professors she didn’t like, and she was rewarded with a job at the New York Post. It’s all a giant grift, pandering to the alt-white. And it works.

G: Nick Gonzales’ profile (hitter friendly college environment, small sample strong performance in the cape,) gives me bad Kevin Newman vibes. Is there concern his bat won’t ever play enough for 2b?
Keith Law: Newman was a better runner and played shortstop better in college than Gonzales did. I would say Gonzales shows more with his present hit tool, though.

Michael: Do surprise players that make it big ever make you recalibrate how you look at things?  Being a Brewers fan, it seems like most of our high rated prospects tank, but we get gems out of left field like Brandon Woodruff (though I will admit you were earlier on him than most).
Keith Law: Yes, they do, and I appreciate you remembering I had Woodruff on a top 100 (and I’m still hanging on to Zack Brown, pecan pie, and homemade wine).

Max: Keith, you’ve mentioned “CSA” a couple of times in the chat.  What is that?
Keith Law: Community Supported Agriculture.

addoeh: If you had a wedding reception with a large group of friends/family, what songs would have made your “do not play” list?
Keith Law: Oh, we had one. Maybe I’ll publish our Spotify wedding playlist?

Brian: I havent been able to join in a while and wanted your opinion on something that came up a few months back – there was an inaccurate statistics floating around social media about suicides and a line about the Prevention Hotline. I hate made up stats as much as anyone but at what point does the message (call the Hotline) become greater than the means by which it went viral (the made up stat)?
Keith Law: The message wasn’t call the hotline, though. The message was “end the lockdowns.” And it was manipulative folderol from people whose real interest was not saving lives, but making money.

Eric: Just want to send prayers and love to Pedro Gomez’s family, friends, loved ones and anyone who knew or followed him. What a horrible loss.
Keith Law: Horrible. Absolutely unfathomable. We have lost way too many people just in our little corner of the sports world in the last twelve months.

Cryptologist: How is crypto an environmental disaster?
Keith Law: Mining bitcoin uses 121 TWh per year, almost as much electricity as the entire country of Norway. And it has no societal value at all.

Pat: In regards to international scouting “Where the best player in the NL came from” doesn’t narrow it down enough. Tatis? Soto? Acuna? That, alone, is reason enough to scout internationally, no?
Keith Law: You would think. Of the four fan bases most whiny about my org rankings, three are fans of teams – the White Sox, the Tigers, and the Orioles – who have gotten little to nothing from the international side.

The Sloth: Was there a Phish song in your wedding playlist? and why was it “Waste”?
Keith Law: “Heavy Things” and “Bouncing Around the Room.”
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week, but I will try to do another one next Thursday once the top 20s have all run. Thank you all so much for reading and subscribing and for all of your questions. The AL will run this week and the NL next. Stay safe and please wear your masks – two masks, really – as we’re finally seeing the light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel.

Klawchat 1/28/21.

My ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball is now up for subscribers to the Athletic.

Keith Law: But the names you drop are secondhand. Klawchat.

addoeh: If Heston Kjerstad had a couple rock umlauts in his name, like Motörhead or Sp?n?al Tap, would he rank higher?
Keith Law: I feel like I burned my best Kjerstad joke in the draft writeup last June.

Jackie: As someone who watched Scott Rolen every day for six seasons in St. Louis, I say this:  he was not a Hall of Famer.  You can very easily tell the story of Major League Baseball in the 2000s without mentioning his name.If you have to explain to me why he deserves enshrinement, then he doesn’t.
Keith Law: I checked the rules for the Hall of Fame voting process. It turns out we do not have to explain to you why a player deserves enshrinement for him to be voted in.

Pierce: When the voting results were announced the other night, I said to myself, “Well, if Curt Schilling can keep his mouth/twitter account shut for one year, then he’s in.”  He only missed by 364 days, 23 hours, and 40 minutes.  I have to admit, a perverse part of me is saddened to miss out on his induction speech — it probably wouldn’t have been boring.
Keith Law: I don’t think we need to give any more platforms to white nationalists or insurrectionists right now.

Alex: I’m probably not the only crazy Braves fan on the internet with a Drew Waters question — nevertheless, what would he have to show you with his hit tool in order to merit a top-100 ranking? *If* he started to show you, how much time would it take for you to be convinced that he was for real?
Keith Law: He wasn’t on the top 100 last year and it’s not like we have new data or information to say he’s a different player now than he was in 2019.

Frank: Thank you for the rankings.  Always a must read.  With so much of the MLB season up in the air, what is the outlook for minor league baseball in 2021?  For development of talent alone they cant repeat what they did last year.  What should we expect to see for the minor leagues?  Oh and thanks as always for still hating my team!!!
Keith Law: I have said a few times that MLB may have to subsidize some minor-league operations this year to allow teams to play without fans or with limited attendance just so the prospects have a place to play.

Alex: It seems highly likely that some teams handled the development of talent much better than others during the pandemic especially for players who were not at the alternate site last year.  Do you think we will see that play out over the next 12-18 months and do you have any insight into which teams did more than others for their younger players?
Keith Law: We will probably see some of that this year, but i have no idea who actually handled the layoff better – it’s all just talk for now.

Jackie: Still waiting for Roger Clemens to fail one drug test, ever … but at least Bud Selig, the guy in charge during the “Steroid Era” got inducted into the Hall of Fame a few years ago.  Gotta draw the line somewhere.
Keith Law: Selig and Kuhn are embarrassing selections for the Hall, as are Bill Conlin and Bill Madden (who won the Fink Award), but they were all voted in by groups other than the BBWAA. It’s not quite equivalent. The real hypocrisy will be when writers who refused to vote for Bonds (zero failed tests) or Clemens (also zero failed tests) do vote for David Ortiz (one positive PED test in 2003).

Brian: Keith, thanks for the Top 100.  What does Leody Taveras being the only Ranger in your top 100 say about their system?  Have they just missed on too many of their recent draft picks and trade targets?
Keith Law: Jung was just outside the 100 – I’ll do a just missed column next week – but their biggest problem has been a horrendous run of pitching injuries. Whatever they were doing, and I sort of have an idea, it not only didn’t work, but it probably contributed to the blowouts of at least four of their pitching prospects.

Matt_: I have a question not related to the Top 100 prospects.  For the last few years I have noticed my interest in baseball draining away.  I’m a diehard Cubs fan, and even when the team was awful in 2012-2014 I read fangraphs every day, listened to baseball podcasts all the time including EW and your short-lived ESPN show.  Now I just don’t really engage with baseball content much.  I’d blame the general malaise surrounding the Cubs franchise the last few years, the utterly odious Ricketts family running the team, and what seems like a larger phenomenon that teams don’t really care about winning all that much in a way that makes analysis of transactions almost seem beside-the-point.  As you can imagine this offseason has been extremely demoralizing.  My reaction to the Ricketts fam selling off the team for parts has been less anger than apathy.  What do you recommend I do to reignite my interest in baseball?  Who should I be following that could help spark joy in following the sport?
Keith Law: That’s a tough question to answer without knowing more about what you personally enjoy(ed) about baseball, but I at least get the most joy from watching the best and most entertaining players doing their thing – players who aren’t just talented, but play with enthusiasm, style, panache.

Chris: I saw this question on Reddit a few weeks ago, but with your prospect rankings dropping today, now feels like the time to ask: If every pro baseball player were suddenly entered into a draft today (but their contracts moving forward would stay the same), what round would Franco get drafted? What if contracts didn’t matter?
Keith Law: Franco would probably go in the first round because you know you’re getting all of his prime years (assuming that the six years of team control still existed).

Bob Wagner: Is there a basic reason why MLB has much more labor strife than other professional sports?
Keith Law: MLB’s union is much stronger, and has done a better job representing the interests of its members, than the unions in the NFL or NHL have.

MannyKay: Did Ryan Mountcastle graduate from prospect status or do you not like his profile much?
Keith Law: Still eligible. LF only with no real history of patience or plate discipline before 2020.

Bill G: Keith – No questions, just a comment.  Excellent job as always.  It is also obvious that the listing is abnormal, in that there appears to be a higher percentage of players on the list with MLB experience.  That does contribute to some prospects being left off the top 100.  I would assume your just missed list could be a bit longer!  Thanks again for all the work you put in to create this list.
Keith Law: I have to talk to my editor about it but I had ~14 players on the just missed list right now.

Jake: Spencer Howard dropped quite a bit from last year. Your report focuses on location issues, but doesn’t mention in game velocity loss noted in other places. Do you feel that was mostly just health related? We’re there any signs of that being an issue previously in the minors?
Keith Law: The velocity stuff was a symptom of the shoulder issue that eventually shelved him. I saw him twice at the end of 2019 and he didn’t lose velocity in either of those starts.

Guest: Hi Keith, is there any reason Nick Gonzales was not ranked in your top 100 when players you ranked lower in the 2020 Draft top 50 (Hassell, Kjerstad, Detmers, Crow-Armstrong) were included?
Keith Law: Because they’re not the same list. I don’t just take the draft rankings and plug them into the pro list. I start the top 100 from scratch every year. And in this case there will be more variation from the draft ranking to the pro ones than there would be in other years, since I only saw a half-dozen draft guys before the world ended, and the industry didn’t get a lot of looks at these players either.

John Olerud: Thanks again for the chat. And congratulations to you and your family! I don’t think I’m alone when I say that the world of international signings is still somewhat confusing to me (not to mention cringe-worthy and concerning in many regards). But can you quickly remind us why some teams seem to always sign the elite prospects? And why others never seem to? Specifically, as an Ms fan (sigh) should I be “mad” that they never seem to contribute any of their budget towards signing the elite prospects (especially in recent years when they are trying to rebuild and have less budget going towards their MLB roster)?
Keith Law: That’s a philosophy – the new hard cap on international bonuses means all teams have essentially the same opportunity to sign the elite players, and some teams will want to spend all of it on one guy each year (e.g., Jasson Dominguez) while other teams say those players are so high-risk that it’s better to spread it around.
Keith Law: Also, thank you!

Tim: New to espresso making and got a good quality breville. I’ve found that even while using the same grind/volume settings merely a different type of coffee will drastically change the pressure settings. Do you know why? And where can I get some damn good beans?
Keith Law: Different beans will indeed require different grind settings and even slightly different amounts to get a perfect shot. It’s an iterative process each time I get a new bag. For beans for espresso, I love Re-Animator’s Foundation and Archetype’s Espresso.

Ben: No Adell? I realize his ML.debut didn’t go as planned, but really? Have his tools and ceiling just vanished since this time last year?
Keith Law: Not eligible. I explain the eligibility rules in the intro.

Bobby Higginson: One word to describe the depth of the Tigers farm system.
Keith Law: Top-heavy.

Rob: For the angels, would you rather have odorizzi and quintata, or bauer. I’m trying to rationalize their inaction on above average starters…again.
Keith Law: Signing two second-tier guys may make more sense for them given their current rotation and lack of depth in the upper levels.

Mark Shapiro: Was Groshans left off the list due to injury concerns? If he has a good 2021 would he be back into the top 100?
Keith Law: He’s just barely played – last game action was May of 2019, I believe.
Keith Law: Still a good prospect. Please bear in mind that omitting a prospect from my top 100 is not tantamount to saying that he sucks.

Billy: Really enjoyed the Top 100 this morning!  It seemed like more draft picks jumped right into the list this year.  Is that more about the quality of the last draft, or about you having better more up to date information for many of them?
Keith Law: Lot of graduations this year too. I actually think the number of draft picks going into the top 100 is about average. Have had as many as 15 in past years, I think.

Jon V.: What do you think the strategy is in Cleveland? They appear to be trying to walk a fine line of staying marginally competitive while building for the future.  For example, they have an abundance of prospects at 2B/SS but then get Rosario back in the Lindor deal and resign C Hernandez.
Keith Law: I think the strategy is dictated by ownership refusing to spend, so they have to play this weird game of competing while constantly planning to trade players before they leave as free agents or just get too expensive for the owner’s tastes. I do think that Rosario could move to CF there.

G: Did you have a difficult time weighing reports from instructs vs being able to actually see guys in games? Quinn Priester in particular seemed to be getting almost hyperbolic praise from scouts
Keith Law: I would say that actual games > instructs > alt site. It was just a worse process this year all around and I tried to make the best of what I had.

Mike: I assume the Dodgers end up trading Keibert, but what happens with Will Smith and Diego Cartaya when hes ready? Can either effectively play another position?
Keith Law: Got at least two full years before we come to that and a lot can change before then.
Keith Law: I don’t worry about those situations until they’re imminent. When CJ Abrams is banging on the door in San Diego, they’ll decide if Tatis stays at SS and Abrams goes to 2B/CF, the reverse, or if Abrams becomes a trade piece for another ace or a star at another position.

Steve: Keith: You seem to be higher on Jazz Chisholm more so than other outlets/rankings. Most have seemed to indicate his potential will hinge on his contact ability. What gives you optimism he will be able to do that/reach his ceiling?
Keith Law: Don’t know about other outlets but I see electric bat speed, an inexperienced hitter with an idea at the plate, and a guy still growing into his frame and I think working on coordination. I’ve seen him before and he’s not hacking, or unable to pick up spin, to think of two possible red flags I don’t see here.

John: Apologies if you’ve covered this before.  I’m just starting to grind my own coffee and use a French press.  Do you have any suggestions on how to get started in finding coffee beans locally?  How do you find a good source?
Keith Law: There are some great lists and sites online (sprudge is one), but you can also just google “third wave coffee CITYNAME” and you’ll find some good guides for any decent-sized town in the country. When you’re in one, chat up the barista – tell them what you like in coffee, that you’re using a French press, and listen to recommendations. They will probably also be able to tell you what other roasters they like in town.

Dr Bob: Congratulations on you recent marriage and felicitations to your new bride.
Keith Law: Thank you! For those who missed the news, I got married earlier this month, and wrote about in my free email newsletter.

John: Keith, thanks for the chat. Love your work. Wondering if you could give us some names of players who “just missed” the top 100 list?
Keith Law: Next week, I believe.

Ben: Did Ryan Pepiot come into consideration at all? If not, what were the reports you heard on him?
Keith Law: Not a top 100 consideration but definitely a prospect who’ll be in my Dodgers top 20.

TinCaps: What would keep Gore out of the Padres rotation this season?
Keith Law: They don’t need him right now, at least, and if he has any issues throwing strikes, which he did in 2018 when he had blisters, they’re clearly not going to rush him.

Joe Random: Will there be follow up breakdowns on individual teams/divisions?
Keith Law: In the intro to today’s rankings, I explained that top 20 lists by team would appear in early February, likely the week of Feb 8.

Mike: BlueJays questions – Simon Woods Richardson not on the list due to a higher reliever risk? Groshams drop off because of injury and low activity, do you see him with potential to be an everyday MLB 3B?
Keith Law: Significant reliever risk there. His arm is extremely late relative to his front leg landing.

Miguel: Are teams evaluating prospective catchers knowing that pitch framing eventually will have limited or no value w “robot umps”? How does that change the importance of the catcher moving forward?
Keith Law: That came up a lot the last two winters. There are certainly some catching prospects who’d see their value jump quickly if we get the automated strike zone, like Tampa’s Ronaldo Hernandez.

CP: Kumar Rocker a lock for Pirates at 1? And (I apologize in advance but this is all we have): Who are top contenders for first overall in 2022?
Keith Law: Not a lock at all; I’d bet on the field rather than Rocker. I’ll do a draft ranking towards the end of February but right now my entire focus is on the pro stuff.

Santaspirt: Serious question Keith. Do you want to start a band? It’s like impossible to be in a band and social distance. You record the guitar/vocals, then send to me to record drums. It’ll be like the Postal Service but through the internet.
Keith Law: I’m in. I even got a bass guitar for Christmas so I’m ready.

Guest: Most Braves fans want Ozuna back because he was awesome last year. However, even setting aside the DH/LF thing, his OPS+ was 175 in a short 2020, 149 in 2017. In his other 6 years, he’s averaged a 103.5 OPS+. Seems kind of crazy to assume he’s going to be above average, let alone great. Thoughts?
Keith Law: There were some differences in 2020 that I think can carry over – I’d bet on a 110-120 wRC+ the next couple of years.
Keith Law: I detailed it in my free agent writeup of him.

Jake: Could Wander Franco start on day one of this season? Should he?
Keith Law: Probably could but no reason for him to be in the majors now or for the Rays to rush him.
Keith Law: If we have the minors, let him go smash AA/AAA pitching for a month to make sure he’s good to go.

Jeremy: It seems like everyone agrees we should keep the DH in 2021 and beyond. Are the owners really willing to hurt their own game just for the extra leverage? (rhetorical)
Keith Law: The owners have limited points of leverage and this is one of them. I hate it, but thinking of it as if I were a lawyer on their side of the table, I’d say this is the right negotiating strategy.

Jay: How to you balance injury risk, development path, and speed to majors with two way prospects?  I ask because it seems like guys like McKay, Greene, and even Ohtani, could’ve contributed more WAR to their team by skipping the pitching development part entirely and focusing on the position part.
Keith Law: Disagree on Greene – he was way behind as a hitter vs as a pitcher – and not even clear that’s true of McKay, who at least needed more time as a hitter.

Jay: Of the recently collected prospects by PIT, who’s the most likely to become a star? Or did they just get a bunch of future regulars for a 78 win team 4 years down the road to repeat the process all over again?
Keith Law: Hudson Head, who just missed my top 100.

Kevin: Happy with Biden 2 weeks in (I am ecstatic)?
Keith Law: Yes. Could always ask for more, but this is a good start. He’s going to spend way more time unraveling the mess he inherited than a lot of people want to accept.

BenL: Thanks for all the hard work on the top 100.  Much appreciated, as always.  I know comps for prospects are crappy to do, but I’ll ask one anyways because you hate my team… or something… Am I wrong to hope that Dylan Carlson ends up being Miami-Christian Yelich? Can play all 3 spots, CF while younger and will age into a corner, doubles high OBP guy.
Keith Law: who could come into power in his mid- to late 20s? Sure, I’m in.

Robert: I just re-listened to a White Sox podcast you were on when they signed Luis Robert.  You took some criticism at the time for being low on him.  At the time you indicated that you heard concerns on the swing, but that he had elite foot speed and bat speed and that if everything “clicked” the White Sox could have a superstar.  That projection seems to have held up pretty well.
Keith Law: Thank you. There was some talk about Robert being the best prospect in the world when he signed, but you should automatically be skeptical when you hear hype like that on a player who’s never played pro ball and has only been scouted in workouts. Robert is a hell of an athlete but you saw last year that he has real vulnerabilities at the plate he has to address.

Marc (DC): What do you think about the future of the sport where there are 200+ FAs and less than a month before pitchers and catchers report? Also, without telling teams if there will be a universal DH, again, with less than a month to go?
Keith Law: We’re heading for labor strife. I hope it’s not an actual work stoppage, but this CBA negotiation will be the most acrimonious in 20 years.

Mntwins21: How close was Larnach to being in your top 100?
Keith Law: Not very.

Marc (DC): How many more wins do you think Bauer would mean for a team?
Keith Law: I’d say about 4. BTW, I know there was some contention about the article Ken Rosenthal wrote about Bauer’s free agency and his behavior on social media. I thought Bauer did not come off particularly well in there; he gave a statement that he’s “not a bully,” but Rosenthal gave direct evidence of Bauer bullying a college student on Twitter, and there are many other such stories out there in the open, which all says to me that Bauer isn’t taking responsibility for his own actions. The easiest thing in the world for him would have been to say he was sorry, and seeks to learn from his experiences so he doesn’t repeat them. Instead he’s acting like they never happened.

Frank: Oneil Cruz dropped out of your rankings- is any of that due to his unknown legal status or merely because there were more deserving players?
Keith Law: More deserving players. As far as I know his legal status is clear.

JeremyK: How does age factor into your prospect rankings? Is it basically a depreciation on your projected upside?
Keith Law: Yes. Arozarena being in the top 50 despite being age 26 is a reflection of just how good he was in a tiny sample, and the possibility that he hits for ++ power on a regular basis now.

Carrett Grochet: Assuming no Crochet on your rankings is because you see him as a reliever (so do I), but were you as surprised as I was to see him pumping 102 and looking super sharp in MLB last year?
Keith Law: No, not surprised – he’d hit 100 in college, at least, and the White Sox used him very gently. He hasn’t shown us an above-average secondary pitch yet and has some health issues in his history.

Tom: Is it fair to say that if anyone is withholding a vote for Schilling for a non-baseball reason is due to “character” and not “politics” – as if some belief in trickle-down economics is what the voters detest?
Keith Law: When someone says Schilling is being punished for his “political views” or for voting for Trump, don’t even engage. It’s a bad faith argument.

Appa Yip Yip: If a player struggles to catch up to velocity, is that something they can work on or is it an immutable characteristic?
Keith Law: If it’s a slow bat, it’s probably not fixable. If it’s bad timing, or a noisy approach, that you might be able to fix.

Andy: How do you think teams will approach workloads for pitching prospects this year (assuming we have a relatively complete MILB season)?
Keith Law: It’ll depend on how much those guys were able to throw at alt sites/instructs. Some guys did log 50+ innings that won’t show up on Fangraphs, but do count in terms of building up arm strength.

addoeh: I know teams are claiming the loss of gate revenues last year is impacting teams payroll this year.  But there could be something else going on.  Teams could be hoarding cash because there may not be a ’22 season.  It doesn’t fill me with a lot of hope.
Keith Law: That’s a perfectly reasonable concern.

Michael: When working with Schilling did you realize he’s this batshit crazy? It’s one thing to be “conservative” but to support an insurrection, openly racist, etc???
Keith Law: I never had any issues with Schilling while we worked together. In his last year at ESPN he began sharing offensive content on his Facebook page, including the Islamophobic and transphobic memes that led to his dismissal, but he never brought that into the office, so to speak. If he always held those views, he kept them to himself.

Chris: How would you describe the difference between linear and rotational hitting? Is there a player that comes to mind for each type?
Keith Law: There may be exceptions but pretty much any guy who hits for power has a rotational swing – rotating his hips, using his lower half, getting loft in the swing finish (for an optimal launch angle). Linear hitters often make a lot of contact but not much hard contact. Any guy you think of as a slap hitter is probably ‘linear,’ hitting mostly with his hands and not using his hips or legs.

Andy: I see Detroit, Boston, and the White Sox all trying their 1B prospects at 3B. Given there’s a very low chance any of the three stick, is this worthwhile? What about preparing for 3B defensively translates into improved 1B defense?
Keith Law: I don’t see any harm in trying it. I might even argue it would encourage those players to work on their conditioning so they stay more agile for workouts at third, even if that’s not their ultimate position.

JR: What, if anything, should the Mets have done in their vetting of Jared Porter? I highly doubt this was a one time incident from Porter, but also not sure what they could’ve done differently , or what they should do differently going forward.
Keith Law: I liked Hannah Keyser’s question – did they ever ask a woman in the industry what her opinion of Porter was? The answer was no. Maybe that should be an essential part of the interviewing process for everyone.

Andy: Which players outside of the top 25 would you say are most likely to top your list in the next year or two?
Keith Law: Orelvis Martinez, Jasson Dominguez, Robert Hassell could all make huge leaps.

KC: If Gilbert comes out this year with an above-average change, does that change his outlook to more TOR, or would it not enough to move him off MOR?
Keith Law: Hard to see him as a #1, but I could see him having a long career as a 2/3 where one day you look up and say, holy shit, Logan Gilbert has 35 WAR?

Nolan: I’m curious about Chris Paddack. If you talk to your average Padre fan, they think he should just be released, but based on the fact that he’s still in silky PJs I have to assume the front office has faith? I refuse to believe the Rays/Cubs didn’t ask for him in their trades.
Keith Law: Oh I’d hang on to him for sure.

JG: If Royce Lewis doesn’t pan out at SS and moves to CF, Twins have to trade Buxton right?
Keith Law: That could be.

DJ: Thoughts on this GameStop/Reddit situation?
Keith Law: I don’t really know enough details about it to have a worthwhile opinion, other than that short-selling has a pretty long and controversial history and I’m not sorry to see shorts get squeezed. Profiting off someone else’s misery like that isn’t ethical and isn’t necessary to the proper functioning of a marketplace.

Pat D: If there is any kind of limitation to this year’s minor league season, in the sense of limited games played at any level, is there any chance this manifests at the Major League level at some point?  Like is there some time within the next few years where there’s a clear decline in talent and/or quality of play because of missed reps?
Keith Law: I think so. Especially hitters – pitchers will probably mostly be OK, but a lot of hitters’ developments will be slowed by a second lost season.

chauncey: who do you think will be voted in the hall next year?
Keith Law: My guess is Ortiz gets in, and maybe Rolen, but that’s it, and there’s a chance nobody gets in at all.

j: I know you didn’t like Fetch The Bolt Cutters, but can you appreciate the artistic value? Or do you think it just sucks?
Keith Law: I thought it was incredibly boring. I have no idea why it was so acclaimed. “Sucks” is a strong word especially for a work of art, but I can say I don’t see the artistic value you cite.

JR: Will you be writing a report on Matz trade? If not, thoughts?
Keith Law: No because despite all the tweets about “three prospects” going to the Mets, it was a replacement-level major leaguer and two guys who weren’t on my Jays top 20.

Chris: If Rolen is a HoF player, what criteria is he meeting that Murphy and McGriff aren’t?
Keith Law: Elite defense at a skill position.

Evan: Julio Rodriguez is not a top 20 prospect. Discuss.
Keith Law: That is a statement of fact, so I’m not sure what there is to discuss.
Keith Law: He was not on my top 20.

Keith: Keith – there are now gluten free oreos.  I believe you’ve posted something about avoiding gluten before, and you’re a known oreo lover.  Will you try the gluten free ones, or are you an oreo purist?
Keith Law: I can’t get over the texture of gluten-free versions of regular cookies.

addoeh: Should players accept that the luxury tax is going to act like a hard cap and work towards getting a hard floor?
Keith Law: Or they should push back on the luxury tax.

Key Flaw: I believe you said you had an Ooni outdoor pizza oven. They seem awesome, but how much do you use it? It seems like you have to heat it up and use a lot of propane or wood pellets for just a couple pizzas, or does it turn on and heat up quickly? I want to justify purchasing to my wife one and need your help!
Keith Law: Heats quickly, would take me a year to go through a bag of pellets most likely, but cools off quickly so if you’re trying to make a lot of pizzas or roast something (which would be odd, since it’s a small oven and gets up to 800+), you would go through a lot more. A pizza cooks in 90 seconds in mine.

Rodney: Triston McKenzie is obviously a pretty unique talent and physical profile. Your analysis of his ability is awesome to read – is there anything you could expand on about any concerns that exist related to his velocity drop, or his ability to be a top-of-the-rotation starter?
Keith Law: I feel like his velocity drops were a bit overplayed – for one thing, this was such an abnormal year, and the fact that he just stayed healthy through it is a win for him, and for another, he can pitch at 90-92 and still be really, really good.
Keith Law: At some point he’s going to put on some weight.

Brodie Van Wagenen: Is there anything I can do to not fail up?
Keith Law: I had that exact thought yesterday.

John: Any quick thoughts on Jack Kochanowicz and Gunnar Henderson? Thanks in advance!
Keith Law: Both will appear in their respective team reports in two weeks. I have a lot more prospect content coming, so please be patient with the roll-out schedule.

Joe: I know it’s said every year…but I’m shocked that there are still so many Vizquel voters who don’t vote for Rolen and/or Jones. Vizquel was a great (but not quite elite) defender and was an average hitter at his absolute best. Rolen and Jones actually were elite defenders at their position and would have fringe HOF arguments even if you just looked at their hitting.
Keith Law: Baseball writers love and overrate Vizquel as much as they love and overrate Bruce Springsteen.
Keith Law: Vizquel’s defense was not that good and we know this because the data tell us so. There are otherwise intelligent writers who just won’t hear it because they think they know what they saw. Now, this probably becomes immaterial in light of the very serious allegations of domestic violence against him, but before that, I think he was on a path to get in.

Dallas: Jays signed Marcus Semien to play 2B. Keith, I don’t think the Jays think Biggio is as good as you do. Wait, hold on a second …
Keith Law: I was actually surprised they didn’t sign him for SS with Bichette going to 2B. That would be a hell of a defensive middle infield.

xxx(yyy): from a travel standpoint, where have you considered honeymooning? not asking for specific places unless you want to share but regions/countries/events?
Keith Law: We have a plan but are waiting until it’s truly safe to take a long flight somewhere.

Turner: Thank you for the rankings and the chat. I’m probably overthinking this, but when you describe a player as having good hand acceleration what are you referring to exactly?
Keith Law: That’s for hitters and I’m talking about how fast they can get the bat moving forward from their loaded position.

Will: Keith, love the chats.  Do you see Deivi Garcia as a top of the rotation SP or will he eventually be relegated to high leverage bullpen because of his frame?
Keith Law: Not a top of the rotation guy – can’t imagine him going 200+ innings and maintaining those K and BB numbers.

Mike: Due to no MiLB last year, was it harder to do your list? Especially since you couldn’t see guys who were at teams complexes, but didn’t pitch in the majors.
Keith Law: I answered that in the intro too.

Chris P: Nick Madrigal had 35 hits and only 3 of those were for extra bases (all doubles). I know this is the type of guy you said he would be, but at what average/obp would say that he needs to stay at to be a viable big leaguer? Or is the total lack of power just too strong?
Keith Law: If he really hits .340, sure, that’s valuable, although even that couldn’t get him more than a .376 OBP. But how does this guy become a star? I don’t see it, and I don’t think he hits .340 forever, especially if pitchers realize they can pitch him anywhere without worry about giving up a homer.

barry: It seemed like there were a bunch of older players on your list this year – ages 24+. Is this due to the minors not having a season last year or am I just wrong about prospect ages? Also, do you have an age cut off to be considered a prospect? Thanks.
Keith Law: You are correct. Arozarena and Puk might be the two oldest players ever to make my top 100.

Mike: Surprised to see Julio Rodriguez so low on your list (I know you pay no mind, but other publications have him higher, some have him above Kelenic) when I know you value potential a little higher than most. Is the hit tool and eye that concerning with him?
Keith Law: I don’t think there is any way to justify Julio over Kelenic. Julio has real hit tool concerns, and he’s a corner guy all the way.

Brad: I just wanted to thank you for an amazing job and wish congratulations to you on your nuptials. Your writing is enjoyed and appreciated in my household.
Keith Law: Thank you, to all of you who offered best wishes and congratulations. We couldn’t be happier.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week but I will chat again once the team reports start running, which is tentatively scheduled for 2/9. I also joined Eric Longenhagen on the Fangraphs Audio podcast, running Friday 1/29. Thank you all for the kind words and for reading. Stay safe.

Klawchat 12/18/20.

Starting at 2 pm ET. My best-of-2020 board games posts are now up at Vulture, where I ranked the best by category; and Paste, where I ranked the top 15 overall. My top 100 songs of 2020 and top albums of the year will go up Monday and Tuesday.

Keith Law: It’s no place for the old. Klawchat.

KS: Assuming you’re able to attend games in 2021, what prospects are you most looking forward to seeing (both those you have previously seen and that you have not yet seen)?
Keith Law: I always skew towards players I haven’t seen, or whom I haven’t seen in a long time. But there are also guys like Mackenzie Gore, who should have debuted this past season but didn’t, or Jarren Duran, who’s made some substantial swing changes that I’d like to see in person (to see how they play against real pitching), in addition to, say, the major draft guys from 2020 I’d never seen (Max Meyer, Robert Hassell) and any international free agents who hadn’t debuted here yet.

Danielectomy: Which of the top free agents would likely best serve the Blue Jays?
Keith Law: Would any of them *not* serve the Blue Jays well? They would be better off with just about anyone from the top of my FA rankings who’s not a pure 1b/dh type.

Logan: Is the hype and the SSS of Bohm enough to label him a potential star opposite Harper?
Keith Law: Hype never made anyone a better player. I don’t think he can stay at 3b but I think the hit tool will be more than enough to make him a longtime above-average regular.

Frank: Honest opinion.  Did teams really lose money last season??  Or just not make as much as they projected??
Keith Law: I would believe that some teams actually did lose money in 2020, maybe all teams, but far less than they claim (or that gullible fink sportswriters claim on their behalf).
Keith Law: They did lose more than 1/2 a season of broadcast revenues and corporate sponsorship money, and a full season of attendance, concessions, and ancillary revenues (like parking). Their costs were also reduced, but not by as much. I’m not crying for the owners, who will still get the capital appreciation that made them buy sports teams in the first place, but it is plausible that most teams were cash negative in 2020.

Gerry: Hey KLaw!!!  The Phillies/Wheeler fiasco a couple weeks ago aside, what would the Phils realistically get from a Nola trade, instead of Wheeler?  I would think they’d get a huge haul for a top of young, top of rotation starter, on a great contract. Shouldn’t Dombrowski at least consider it?
Keith Law: No, he shouldn’t.
Keith Law: That might be the worst possible move for the team right now, given where they are.

Frank: With so many sports games being cancelled on all levels, professional thru HS, what is the expectation for scouting for the upcoming draft?  And will MLB require all players in minors and majors to get vaccine?
Keith Law: Sounds like we’ll have some sort of spring to scout, which is good since there was so little over the summer. I don’t think MLB can flat-out require that without the union’s consent – and the vaccine has to be available, not waiting for a petulant lame-duck administration to release it.

Buckner86: Why did Chris Paddock have such a rough 2020?  Is it fixable?
Keith Law: I’m going to go on a limb and say it was the 14 homers allowed in 59 innings that did it. And it was almost all on his four-seamer. He still doesn’t have an average breaking ball, and even lefties, who should have been more vulnerable with his plus-plus changeup, got to his fastball way too often.

Dan M.: Do you find that take out from fine dining establishments is justified?  I am debating getting Bardea for a birthday celebration this weekend.
Keith Law: Yes, we’ve gotten takeout from Bardea (which I think is the best restaurant in Wilmington right now) several times, and eaten once in their outdoor tent, although I’m not entirely sure that tent is “outdoor” enough. But the food is great and they do a fantastic job prepping and packaging it for takeout.

Drew: Can Tyler O’Neill get over his strikeout issues?
Keith Law: I am not a big believer in his bat. He’s always been such a dead-pull, ambush a fastball sort of hitter.

section 34: When does MLB free agency start?

Or, please remove “When” and answer the question without it, if you prefer.
Keith Law: The Mets have signed a few, including the first four-year deal of the winter. It’s been slow the last few winters even without a pandemic.

MK26: Hi Keith
Do you think It Can’t Happen Here because America is exceptional or that it just didn’t happen here this time because we are exceptionally lucky? We just learned that ~70 million citizens and a large chunk of elected officials are fine living in a dictatorship so long as their guy gets to do the dictating. Isn’t it just chance that our despot is a particularly epic level of imbecile and that his Elite Strike Force assigned to steal power ended up being a 3-person Ocean’s Eleven that ran through the casino floor shouting ‘we’re robbing the casino’ then knocked themselves unconscious in a smear of black hair dye as they smacked headfirst into the locked vault doors? I just worry what happens next time now that we know it’s actually not a very hard vault to break into.
Keith Law: I share that fear – that this particular wannabe tyrant showed more competent wannabe tyrants how it can be done.

Guest: White Sox fandom is all of a sudden down on Michael Kopech. Do you have reservations about him being a quality starter in 2021?
Keith Law: No. Who cares if the fans are down on a guy?

addoeh: Given how you’ve said you watch their games now. has your partner taught you the words to “Fly, Eagles Fly” yet?
Keith Law: Yes, and I’ve discovered you can pretty much sing them to the tune of “O Canada.”

Josh C: I think I remember you being a big fan of John Le Carre. Have you read any of the books by his son Nick Harkaway? I highly recommend both Angelmaker and Tigerman
Keith Law: I really enjoyed Le Carré’s Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and The Spy Who Came in from the Cold, but found some of his later work, like The Tailor of Panama, disappointing. Have not read any of his son’s books.

ffballmaster: Do you think Gerrit Crochet has top of the rotation potential or ends up as a high end bullpen arm?  Impressive debut but not sure how you’d rank him among some of the other draftees like Meyer and Lacy.
Keith Law: Bullpen guy. Basically a one-pitch guy in college, with control issues and trouble staying healthy. That’s a lot to fix to make him a starter.

Lorne Volat: Do you have any recommendations for games (board, etc.) for a 5 1/2 yo?
Keith Law: Yes – if you look at the links at the top of this chat I included Dragomino, a new game for ages 5+ (really, for 4+) based on Kingdomino, in both year-end roundups.
Keith Law: I also think Ticket to Ride First Journey is great, as are Friends of a Feather, Outfoxed, and Hoot Owl Hoot.

Sadtigerfan: Who do you think will be the better overall player Riley Greene or Spencer Torkelson?
Keith Law: Torkelson will get there first, but unless he ends up playing third base, I might bet on Greene as the better long-term player. He has the higher ceiling, at least, although that’s not the same thing.

Terry: Is there a big-ticket move that you like best for the Mets? Trade for Lindor/Arenado? Sign Springer? Sign the Alt-Righty? Trade for someone else?
Keith Law: Any of those, really. But if you are one of the only owners willing to spend, the best values should be found in free agency rather than trade.

JR: The Mets signing Mcann feels very much like the old Mets regime. Overpaying for a fringe backup player to fill an open position rather then getting the top dog or waiting on the market (or even a GM) to see if you could get a better option. Hopefully a blip in the road and not a sign of things to come.
Keith Law: I largely agree with this. It also is a weird bet on very tiny samples, and that seems like the sort of thing teams did 20 or 30 years ago.

Dallas: What level will the top HS picks from 2019 start at this year? I assume the top picks (Witt, Greene, Abrams, Baty, Cavaco, Carroll, etc) were part of the 60-man pools so I’m curious if that allows them to possibly start at 2A (maybe even the Majors for Witt). Thanks.
Keith Law: There is no chance Witt starts in the majors. He hasn’t played above short-season ball. I doubt any player you listed starts above high-A.

John: Happy Holidays, I hope you and yours are safe and healthy this season.  When are you estimating you’ll get a COVID vaccine, I’m hoping I get the full treatment by mid-summer but recognize that thankfully many more people need it before me?
Keith Law: I will get it as soon as I’m allowed, but I’m not in any category that would put me in the first or second tiers – not an essential worker, not old enough, no known comorbidities, not working in any settings where I’d be justified in skipping the line.

Claudio: Ciao KLaw! I get I might be biased (Braves fan) but I don’t get how Andruw is so far away from the threshold. 10 years average of 34 HRs and 103 rbi, 10 straight gold gloves while playing one of the best (if not the best) CF in history. Are his last few years enough to discourage writers to vote him in? I don’t get it.
Keith Law: RBIs don’t matter, Gold Gloves are stupid (although he is, IMO, the best defensive OF of all time), but his career was basically over at age 31 because of knee problems. I think he’s very borderline, but have voted for him because his impact on baseball in Curaçao and Aruba has been enormous. Without him, we may not have Xander Bogaerts, or Andrelton Simmons, or Ozzie Albies.

Brian: Am I going mad?  I thought you had a Twitter link to a rule 5 article on the Athletic…which was not there when I sighted in…
Keith Law: I didn’t write up anything on the rule 5 other than a ‘brief’ where I mentioned that the two best guys taken were probably Akil Baddoo and Jose Soriano, both of whom are recovering from elbow surgery.

Jason S (Brewcrew): How broken is the league? I just honestly dont understand Rob Manfred anymore. I am an accountant. To me– he’s running the league from the standpoint of a PE exec, not someone who loves baseball. I hate Roger Gooddell, but at least we know he loves the game.
Keith Law: Well, he’s not extracting money from teams like private equity folks do, at least not yet. I don’t get a lot of what Manfred does and says, though.

Beeds: vladdy looking fit! This the year he gets in the Acuna Tatis stratosphere?
Keith Law: I still think he’s going to be an offensive star, but these news stories are just early “best shape of his life!” folderol.

Kevin: What length of contract/$$ would you be comfortable giving Springer if you were Jared Porter??
Keith Law: I would give him the largest contract of anyone this winter – which is why I ranked him #1 – probably six years and something in the $30MM/year range, although the market may not support it this year.

Beeds: Fit Vladdy! Assuming he now stats to reach his Offensive potential how “good” of a defender at 3B does he need to be to be plus plus value?
Keith Law: Same question twice, sort of, but I don’t see any way he plays third base.

Patty O’Furniture: Is there any chance the Reds would be interested in moving Eugenio Suarez to a team that falls short on a trade for Kris Bryant (Braves, Nats, etc.)
Keith Law: They should, and then put Nick Senzel back on the dirt where he belongs.

That Guy in Detroit: Tuberville is a place where fantasies become conspiracies
Keith Law: His election is proof that you could run Mickey Mouse on the right party ticket in a strongly red/blue state and he’d still win.

Chuck S.: Feelings on “separating the art from the artist?” Because this new Ryan Adams album is damn good.
Keith Law: That’s a great question to which I don’t have a great answer. My personal policy has been to avoid spending money on art from artists whose behavior are so odious – I won’t pay a dime to watch anything with or by Mel Gibson, for example. Is Adams over that line? I feel like he probably is. But it’s also hard for me to forget that I loved some of his music before we knew who he really was.

Kip: Happy holidays.  When your daughter was younger how did you maintain your reading habit?  We have an infant with another on the way and it’s incredibly difficult.  I’ve tried reading a set number of pages per night but it feels like work.
Keith Law: The year she was born was my personal reading low, as in the fewest books I’ve read in any year since I started tracking how many books I read a year. By year two, I was traveling a good bit more, though, and I read a lot while I’m on the road.

Shane: Josiah Grey a #1?
Keith Law: I don’t believe so.

Kevin: So obvioudly the NL needs the DH to continue but it looks like Manfred might use it as a “bargaining chip” in the next CBA so it won’t be there in 2021.  With that in mind what should the Mets do for 2021 with Dom and Alonso.  Just hold onto both and wait for 2022?  Personally I would love for them to see what Alonso would get in a trade but I doubt they will do that.
Keith Law: I’d hold on to both – I can’t see them dealing Alonso, given his popularity and value.

Jim: Keith- big local Trenton Thunder fan here. What is the viability of the MLB draft league?
Keith Law: I don’t know what their economic model will be now – I assume from the minor league teams’ perspective, their costs are going to be pretty similar, since they weren’t paying the players’ salaries as minor league affiliates, and now the draft league players won’t be paid because they’re amateurs. How much will revenues decline with the new model? These teams certainly lose out on the annual boost when, say, Aaron Judge comes through for a couple of rehab games, and that’s probably a decent part of their annual revenues. If their average attendance in ‘regular’ games goes down as well, are they no longer profitable?
Keith Law: I don’t know. Nobody really knows, but I have my doubts that all of these dis-affiliated teams will survive.

Guest: Keith, why does it take the Cleveland organization 1-2 years to change the racist name of their baseball club to the “Cleveland Spiders?”  It should be done yesterday.
Keith Law: Yep. They have probably 90 days or so until anyone is reporting to spring training. They could get it done if this actually mattered to them.

Matt: Should Andrew Vaughn be slated to start the season in Chicago?  Pretty big hole at DH on the south side
Keith Law: No, since there’s no real reason to think he’s ready for the majors.
Keith Law: Prospects aren’t ready when you want them to be; they’re ready on their own timetables. Rushing them doesn’t change that, and there’s always some small chance that it ends up slowing their development.

Tommy: Played settlers for the first time over thanksgiving and loved it. im sure you’ve played a ton but where does it rank all time for you?
Keith Law: I just happen to have a ranking of my top 100 games right here for you.

CR: If you’re the Mets, do you prefer Bauer or Springer? I’m all in on Springer but admittedly biased because I think he’s a great guy and his work with kids who stutter hits close to home. But from a baseball standpoint, I think the Mets resources would be better spent on Springer plus two second tier starters. And a trade for Lindor of course. Thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: Position player over pitcher.

Andy: I would think Cano would be a debatable  HOF case based on #’s. I suspect that the positive tests doom him. First thoughts, if he’s done would you be voting for him?
Keith Law: He’s probably over the bar for me. I haven’t barred anyone from my ballot over positive tests, but when I had more names than slots, I prioritized guys without over guys with (e.g., Manny Ramirez was off my ballot until I had room). Also, Cano has a slightly higher career WAR than Chase Utley, but I’d put Utley higher.
Keith Law: And both Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich had more WAR than Cano and still can’t get a damn sniff.

Tyler: Game recommendation for a 5 1/2 year old:  Sleeping Queens.  There’s some math learning as well as a little strategy so it’s not too painful for the adults.  It also has gentle elements of messing with each other so it’s been a great chance to learn about sportsmanship.
Keith Law: I will check that one out, thank you.

Victoria: Have you ever read Heart of the Matter by Graham Greene?
Keith Law: Yes – I’ve read every Greene novel still in print. My favorites are still Our Man in HavanaThe Power and the Glory, and The Quiet American.

Robbie: It’s Ronald Acuña Jr.s 23rd birthday today. Do you think he’ll ever fix the hole in his swing so that he can maximize his potential and actually be top of the league caliber
Keith Law: If he has a hole in his swing, what would he be like if he “fixed” it? Mike Trout?

Sedona: I’ve seen articles on how Aaron Ashby really impressed during alt site.  Is he a legit prospect?  Future rotation piece?
Keith Law: Legit prospect and possible rotation piece, yes.

Justin: How long do you think it takes for the Lindor trade market to get moving? I’ve seen opinions that he won’t get Cleveland as much as Boston got for Betts, and Betts is the better player probably? But Boston did attach Price’s contract to that deal and at most, Cleveland adding someone like Carrasco to the deal wouldn’t be the albatross  (not the right word, but best I could come up with) that Price’s deal was, right?
Keith Law: Betts is the better player, and I wonder if there was more belief Betts would consider an extension than Lindor, who has been adamant about getting to free agency (as is his collectively bargained right, I might add). But there isn’t that much difference between the two. As for when it gets going, I don’t know. Something has to happen to set a market, but what prompts that first something?

CR: Last comment from me, but I messaged in the last chat about my family suffering from covid after my wife, who is a nurse, brought it home from the hospital. We’re all recovered now, but it was a hellish three weeks. Absolutely not a joke. I hope everyone gets the vaccine and trusts the science, but if history is an indication…
Keith Law: Glad to hear you’re recovering. There are still way too many people who should know better acting like this thing doesn’t kill, even with a new report this week that the death rate for Americans 25-44 was much higher this year so far due to the pandemic.

Kevin: There seems to be a narrative going around that Bauer has overcame poor genetics to succeed via hard work. He’s like 6’1” and not exactly rail thin though, he doesn’t look like lincecum or anything. Am I missing something?
Keith Law: I have heard that narrative and don’t really understand it. He’s like 5″ taller than Stroman or Sonny Gray, both of whom had to overcome a lot more bias in the industry against short right-handers.

Sedona: Domingo German looks nasty in winter league… are the Deivi’s and Schmidt’s overtake him if all are healthy?
Keith Law: I don’t really ever need to see German in the majors again. I also never bought him as a starter.

Canadian person: Would signing Realmuto, and then trading from their catching depth to address other areas be a good plan a for the Jays?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. I know a lot of fans would be bummed to see Kirk go, and there’s a chance he ends up some kind of outlier star, but there’s a lot of risk there given his build.

Chris: thoughts on the new season of “Big Mouth?”
Keith Law: Haven’t watched yet.

Nate: Thoughts on Jo Adell and what he just did in 2020, I know super small sample size, but swing and miss has always been part of his game. What does he need to adjust to in your opinion?
Keith Law: He needed more time in AAA, and I’d put him and similar prospects in the group more likely to be hurt by all the lost at bats.

Jon Sloan: Hi from SD Keith, can’t wait to have you out next year, eat some fried bird and talk baseball
Keith Law: I was just thinking about the Crack Shack (where Jon is exec chef) the other day when I was talking to my daughter & my partner about fried chicken sandwiches … and then again because someone brought up the 2019 Winter Meetings. I don’t miss the meetings per se but damn a trip to San Diego would be nice right now (gestures at 2″ of ice and snow outside).

Noah: Do you have a favorite chicken recipe?  I’ve got two chickens I’m breaking down for the weekend (BBQ legs tonight) and need a good one for the breasts tomorrow.  Thanks, Keith!
Keith Law: Sticking with a theme … I don’t like cooking plain chicken breasts on their own, because they dry out too easily. Either I roast them on the whole bird, or I slice them thinly into cutlets and bread & fry them (season with salt, pepper, and smoked paprika; dredge in egg; then coat in panko and fry two minutes per side in olive oil).
Keith Law: That’s for your regular store-bought broiler/fryer. If you have access to really high quality chicken, though, that’s another story.

mike: I’m a big comp guy for some reason, so feel free to shoot this one down.  Does Austin Martin have the chance to become a Mookie Betts type player?  Developing power on top of a stellar hit tool…
Keith Law: I don’t do comps, really. I think Martin could be a superstar, given his athleticism, contact skills, and chance to be a plus fielder at a skill position. I don’t think he’s much like Betts.

Marc: you see Kumar Rocker as the best pitcher in the draft?
Keith Law: I do not. Most famous, yes, but not best.

Tom C: So Keith based on some of your recent tweets, do you think the Eagles take the cap hit and trade Wentz or… wait what the hell chat am I in here
Keith Law: God I hope they do. Wentz didn’t even take a snap last Sunday, yet he was sacked four times and picked off twice.

Snowy: DeSclafani looks like another good under the radar signing from Farhan. Do you think they still have work to do filling out rotation behind Gausman-Cueto-Tony Disco?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he’s ever going to be a starter for them.

xxx(yyy): any documentary recs from the last few months?
Keith LawTranshood was great. Haven’t seen any buzz about that one.  The Donut King was above-average too even though I had some small criticisms.

xxx(yyy): is cautious excitement the right reaction to the Rangers naming Chris Young as the GM?
Keith Law: I don’t know anything about him or what his philosophy might be, so I don’t have an opinion either way. I would prefer to interview him if we’re both sitting down first, though.

Andy: Re COVID-19: Eduardo Rodriguez had heart issues. Mo Bamba (NBA player) is still recovering from his infection in June. A college basketball player collapsed on the court. These are professional athletes in their prime who are suffering non death related complications. There’s more than just dying to getting sick. Wear your masks and social distance.
Keith Law: We are pretty lucky nobody in MLB got terribly sick – and by “in MLB” I’m including non-player personnel, some of which surely did get COVID-19 during any of the outbreaks (Marlins, Cards, Dodgers). Just because we didn’t hear about it doesn’t mean it didn’t happen.

xxx(yyy): do you listen to Jazz? any favorite albums?
Keith Law: Not much, just some of the most well-known stuff – Coltrane, Miles Davis. I loved Moses Boyd’s album this year Dark Matter and enjoyed the work he did with Tori Handsley.

Noah: My butcher in Brooklyn – The Meat Hook, they’re the best – has high quality, pasture-raised chicken from small farms in upstate NY.  But appreciate the suggestion!
Keith Law: Those birds are going to taste completely different in the best possible way. Also you probably get a higher dark meat/light meat ratio. Enjoy!

Key Flaw: With the pandemic and minor league (and amateur mostly) shut down, is there a chance that this will positively affect young arms because they aren’t overused? I’m thinking fewer high school seniors and college pitchers throwing 180 Pitches might be better than missing out on a year of development?
Keith Law: Yes, I’ve speculated that and also that some pitchers who were heading towards arm trouble might be spared that by a forced year off from competitive pitching. Not just trying to find a silver lining, but I think giving a wearing-down shoulder like 18 months between pitches thrown in anger might be a good thing?

Guest: When you play board games, how important – if at all – is that you win?
Keith Law: Now, not at all, as long as I feel like the game gave everyone a chance to win.

xxx(yyy): what is your process for “finding” articles for things like the newsletter or stick to baseball? twitter discovery? RSS readers? other content aggregators?
Keith Law: Yep, all of those. My partner sends me a lot of great articles she finds, and since we work in totally different spheres she sees things I don’t.

Mike: Any chance the Rockies actually play any young players this year?  What is the point of being a draft-and-develop type organization if you won’t play players when they are ready?
Keith Law: I understand the frustration, but also would cut them a little slack in that they’ve had the odd misfortune of having prospects develop and then be blocked by established big leaguers (e.g., Macmahon, who did play some last year, was a third baseman before they moved him).

Frank: End of the year movie wrap-up, starting to see some “best of…” lists come out.  Have not see much push for it, but best film I saw this year is ANTEBELLUM.  Really thought it was directed well and Monae had a blistering performance.  I think it was dismissed due to it is basically an elaborate Twilight Zone episode.  Also saw as criticism that it suffers from GET OUT fatigue?!?!  (How many smart, african american horror movies have their been??)
Keith Law: You are literally the first person I’ve seen say a good thing about that movie. I know the spoiler, and oh my god, it sounds dumb.

Rob: What’s your preferred method to make at home pizza? Do you have any thoughts on the Ooni pizza ovens? Thank you!
Keith Law: I own an Ooni oven and it’s fantastic. Just hard to use when it’s 30 degrees (it works fine, I just don’t want to run in and out in this temperature).

BL: Speaking of the Rockies, if you’re in charge there, what are you doing?
Keith Law: As much as Rockies fans are frustrated right now, that’s the hardest GM job in baseball, in my opinion. Any exec there will have more of a challenge, even if all else were equal, than anyone else. I think that, even 28+ seasons in, no one has hit on a good formula for building a pitching staff that can last over multiple seasons. Until you crack that, you are constantly improvising, and doing so with less money than at least a few of your most important competitors. That doesn’t justify the money they’ve spent on relievers lately, though. That strategy hasn’t worked at all.

Chris: America’s Test Kitchen method for pizza is to put a pizza stone on the lower rack of your oven, crank the temperature to 500 degrees, and let it heat for an hour before cooking. It turns out perfectly crisp every time.
Keith Law: It depends on your dough, more than anything. I make pizzas that way (ATK didn’t exactly invent that) using a dough that’s higher hydration than the dough I use for the Ooni, which gets up to 800 degrees and thus cooks the pizza far faster, meaning less time for evaporation. My indoor pizzas cook in six minutes, but in the Ooni it’s about 90 seconds. Two different doughs, and different approaches to toppings too.

Sam: Does Spring Training start on time?  Are we going to have a 162 game schedule this year?
Keith Law: Reports this week seemed to indicate no to both. 130 games? With a 100 game minor league season? I’d be ecstatic.

hogan: Isn’t ‘sportsmanship’ listed as something to be considered when voting for hall of famers? How do you square that when voting for guys who got cheating with PEDs?

Also, thoughts on the Negro Leagues being included statistically with MLB?
Keith Law: Sure. Define ‘sportsmanship.’ To say nothing of the probability that more players used PEDs than just the ones who tested positive. It’s an unsolvable quagmire that I choose not to use as a binary variable in voting. For what it’s worth, I think Cano has no chance – enough voters will hold two tests against him that he’ll languish well below the 75% mark, maybe even fall off entirely. But if he’s one of the ten best guys on the ballot, I will at least consider voting for him.

JL: Re: Andruw Jones and his career being basically over at 31. He started at 19/20. It seems he’d have been better served starting his career around age 23 and fading out at 33/34 than having it start and peak when it did. His peak was fantastic and over one 10 year period I believe, only Bonds had a higher WAR.
Keith Law: Yes, his peak was fantastic, but he didn’t have the longevity of most Hall of Famers. Not all, but most.

Jason: The CBAs for the NFL, NBA, and NHL require that roughly 50% of the revenue goes to the players.  Obviously the MLBPA has always opposed a salary cap (in whatever form), and I know that you—quite rightly—don’t like the idea of artificially capping what players earn.  With that said, what percentage of revenues in 2019 would you estimate the players received?  I’m curious as to whether a similar arrangement would actually benefit the players now
Keith Law: That’s a great question to which I do not know the answer. I do think any attempt to cap players’ earnings will end up enriching the owners. You can bank on that. It might, however, redistribute the money paid to players in a way that benefits more players than it harms.
Keith Law: (I feel like there’s a socialism joke to make there but I’m too tired.)

Jim: Keith, thanks as ever for doing these chats! What do you think about the PCL withdrawing from MiLB?  Inevitable leaving a sinking ship, ensuring they’re not drawn into any lawsuit, or …?  Also, regarding the vaccine, while I have mixed feelings on making it mandatory, the MLBPA has no say in the matter since minor leaguers are infamously not part of the union and left by MLB players to twist in the wind.
Keith Law: I don’t know about the legal liability but the move was largely a paper one. MiLB is ceasing to exist as an independent entity. The MLBPA would have a say in the matter on vaccines for major leaguers.

Sedona: Corbin Burnes an ACE?
Keith Law: I’d be more comfortable calling him a very good #2.

John: are most non-elite starters fairly inconsistent year-to-year like RP or is there more consistency in 3,4,5 starters as a whole than I’m imagining?  i’m not sure that is quantifiable or not but was always curious
Keith Law: That’s probably going to depend on your definition of a #3 or #4 starter. I would guess most GMs and managers would value more consistency in those spots even if they’re giving up some ceiling.

Dave C: Keith thanks for all the chats and columns in 2020.  Was something I always enjoyed reading and learning from!
Kip: Thanks, Keith.  I’ve long enjoyed your work and your perspective.  Stay safe.
TomBruno23: No snarky questions from me, simply want to say Happy Holidays (Christmas for you, Hannukah for me, anything to anyone else out there) and thank you for all of the content you provide during the year.
Dr. Bob: No question today. Just thanks for the chats. Merry Christmas to all.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. I appreciate all of your support and readership over the years, not least during this one.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week, and I think that’ll be the last Klawchat until 2021. (I’ll try to sneak in a video chat of some sort next week, though.) Thank you all for reading and for all of your questions. Please stay safe during the holiday break, even if it means declining to see some friends or family members, and wear your masks any time you’re around folks outside of your household or pod. Have a happy holiday of your choosing.

Klawchat, 12/3/20.

I have two new posts for subscribers to the Athletic, one on the impact of this week’s announcements of minor league realignment and contraction, and the other on six non-tendered players who are worth another look. I also posted my ranking of the top 100 board games, updated for 2020, here on Wednesday.

Keith Law: Don’t waste your words I don’t need anything from you. Klawchat.

Ross: Biggest surprises among non-tendered players?
Keith Law: David Dahl for sure. I’m going to write a short post on 3-4 of those guys who would have otherwise made my top 40 free agents had they been non-tendered in early November.

Eric: Do you see Steve Cohen/Sandy Alderson putting the right pieces (front office, scouting & of course players) in place to be a perrenial contender?
Keith Law: Yes, but I don’t think my opinion there means anything at all. It’s based mostly on trust in Sandy’s intelligence and track record, although even he has had his mistakes.

Guest: Is it concerning that the Mets haven’t been able to find anyone for the front office hires? Or is it a combination of timing and they’re just being overly particular?
Keith Law: I do not believe for a second they’ve been unable to find anyone. Reports that everyone is turning them down are probably just bullshit.

Steven Matz: Wow,how am I making 5.2 million dollars?!
Keith Law: Good for him. Few players have worked harder to come back from injuries that could have ended a career than Matz has.

Scott of Lincolnshire: Is the idea of Kyle Schwarber greater than the results of Kyle Schwarber?  $8 mil doesn’t seem like a ton of money for .800 OPS
Keith Law: That OPS masks trouble vs LHP and doesn’t consider lack of positional or defensive value.

Guest: Do the White Sox survive La Russa?
Keith Law: Yes. They might even succeed under him. But they have ceded the chance to be better under a more capable and progressive manager.

MLB: Now that we have crushed minor league baseball, what else can we do to have fans be less interested in our game from all over the country?!
Keith Law: More commercial breaks, probably.

Ryan: If owners refuse to open their books, why do all of them crying poor all the time get taken seriously. When will we decide that these are clearly arguments being made in bad faith? If Bill DeWitt Jr. believes that “the industry isn’t very profitable” then why has he owned a team for 25 years?!
Keith Law: Any reporter who accepts these lies wholesale – like the fink Bill Madden, who got laughed off the internet last week when he printed that the Phillies lost nearly $2 billion, just like the nonsense story he printed about Mike Elias and the pension fund a few weeks earlier, yet more proof Madden’s Spink Award should be revoked – no longer deserves your attention or clicks.

Alex: If you were a GM with a limited budget (cough, Orioles, cough) with glaring holes in pitching and SS (and 3B)– who would you be talking to right now (while keeping in mind the restraints listed above)?
Keith Law: I mean, they had Iglesias, a good value at shortstop whose defense would help any pitchers they’re trying to develop, and traded him for very little.

Ed: Not a question, but looking at your Top 100 list, I can’t recommend Castles of Tuscany more.  Looking forward to your eventual review!
Keith Law: I haven’t gotten that one yet but thank you. I have mixed feelings on Feld games … he gets way too enamored of complicated scoring rules sometimes, like in Merlin.

Matt: Do you buy organic food? If so, which categories (i.e., produce, meat, etc.)?
Keith Law: Yes. Dairy and eggs first, because I think there are tangible differences (organic eggs, in my experience, have harder shells and more defined yolks, although if you have a local farm with fresh eggs you can get the same whether or not they’re organic) and I want to support antibiotic-free husbandry. I don’t think there’s a difference to the consumer between organic and conventional produce, but you may choose that for ethical reasons.

Ben (MN): I may be in the minority among other lifelong baseball fans (in my early 30s), but I would support 7 inning double-headers even in a post-pandemic league. In fact, I would support 7 innings for all games. I will always watch the Twins, and I used to watch any game that was on tv. But i now find that other MLB games, including the playoffs, are so long that I find them unwatchable if I don’t have a rooting interest. Do you think MLB would ever be willing to shorten the games?
Keith Law: Dear God I hope not. This isn’t high school baseball.

Hadley: Let’s stipulate for the sake of argument that MLB is unable to spend any more total $ on MiLB than what it’s going to spend next year.  Given that budget, are the overall changes to MiLB going to be a net positive?  Is it fair to think of as a tradeoff of better QOL for minor leaguers vs. fewer total number of jobs for players and others in MiLB?
Keith Law: Let’s see that money actually go to the remaining minor leaguers before considering that possibility. MLB has hinted at it, but it’s just that until they do something about it I am reserving judgment.

BE: I know prospect for prospect trades are rare but what did you think of Bowden’s Addell for Manning proposal? Angel’s fans hated it but as a Tiger’s fan losing Manning’s upside is scary.
Keith Law: LOLOLOLOLOL

JJ: Julian McWilliams, the Boston Globe beat writer who covers the Red Sox, voted Alex Verdugo for 5th place on his MVP ballot and Xander Bogaerts for 10th place (the only votes either man received).  Isn’t it a bad look for the BBWAA that they allow McWilliams, an employee of the John Henry owned Boston Globe, to vote for anything involving the John Henry owned Red Sox?  Maybe McWilliams saw something that every other writer (and Red Sox fan) missed in 2020, but it certainly seems like a conflict of interest.
Keith Law: MLB.com writers are now BBWAA members too, so there’s a lot of potential for those conflicts. I do think employees of team-owned publications should recuse themselves from voting. It’s the appearance of conflict that matters. Just voting for players on the team you cover isn’t unethical or uncommon – hell, Tom Gage (another Spink winner) stuffed Tigers on his ballots all the time, and nobody but me seemed to give a shit.
Keith Law: (Also, end the Spink Award. The BBWAA is going to change the award’s name, but it’s the pinnacle of self-congratulation. Just get rid of it.)

MK26: Thank you for being blunt about media both-sidesism in your Stick to Baseball posts. I think the media (outside right-wing batshit outlets) did a pretty good job calling lies lies post-election. But you rightfully point to NYT as one of the worse culprits of prioritizing balance over truth. I half-expect their World Series coverage to run an article “Rays Claim First World Series Title Without Citing Evidence, Opponents Disagree”.
Keith Law: The Times is home to some of the best journalism in the country … and some of the most regrettable stuff too, from headlines to news articles to the opinion pages. I’m glad Bennet and Weiss, both integral parts of the problem there, are gone, but Bret Stephens’ continued employment there is a bigger symptom. Climate change denial is not an opinion. It is a delusion.

Todd Boss: Do we really think that these new wood bat leagues that the short-A/rookie league teams are turning into will be successful?  You could easily argue there’s already way too many such leagues now (there’s dozens and dozens of wood bat leagues all over the country).
Keith Law: These will have MLB’s imprimatur and may push some of the less-known wood bat summer leagues into oblivion.

JohnC: Love the chats. Have you read Andrew Yang’s War on Normal People book. Good read and he makes a very compelling case for UBI. Thoughts on UBI?
Keith Law: I haven’t read it and don’t plan to. I’ve read some economic research on UBI and think it has parts worth using, but implementing it in the US is a pipe dream and I’d rather work towards goals we might achieve in our lifetime, like expanding child care and preschool options that allow more parents to work, and increasing the minimum wage.
Keith Law: Getting right-wing voters to agree to “pay people to do nothing” is a non-starter. Paying people more to work, regardless of where that money comes from, is viable, and also just generally good for people.

Arnold: I recently finished reading The Inside Game–fantastic BTW–and have a question regarding the poor odds of drafting high school pitchers early in the draft.  For the few high-drafted high school pitchers (Bum, Kershaw, etc.) who succeed in the majors, are there any commonalities that might be predictors, such as more mature bodies, less wear and tear on the arms, or the types of pitches they throw?  I assume someone has tried to study the exceptions to the rule.  I ask as the much older brother of a pretty good, but still young high school pitcher.
Keith Law: I don’t know of any common factors other than that those guys stayed healthy.

Andrew: How will the new wood bat league set up by MLB affect the Cape Cod League?
Keith Law: Probably not at all. The new league is supposed to include mostly players eligible for that year’s draft. The Cape’s strength has always been underclassmen for the following two drafts.

Todd: How far away for the Yankees are the likes of Medina and Gil?
Keith Law: Two years. Both more likely relievers than starters.

Jason S: Hi Keith, what are your thoughts on the Knebel deal? Here is my thinking– with Jimmy Nelson I understood cutting him loose because he was just not right.  With Corey, he is just 1 year removed from TJ and we all know it takes 12-24 mos to come back. Is this a harbinger of cheapness to come for the brewers? Or were they right to cut bait?
Keith Law: He had one good year, in 2017. I have no problem with the Brewers cutting bait on him.

Alec: A couple weeks ago you mentioned Abrams could stick to SS, as opposed to 2B or CF.   Where would FTJ go in that scenario?
Keith Law: Tatis Jr. is a shortstop long-term. They don’t have to both be on the same team.

Salty M’s Fan: What would it take for the Ms to get the Rays to consider moving Snell? Would Gilbert plus be enough or would it have to start with Kelenic / Jrod?
Keith Law: There’s no way I do a deal with the Mariners that doesn’t include one of those two outfielders.

Zihuatenejo: I thoroughly enjoyed your board game rankings.  What would you rank as the top 10 (or 5, or whatever, it’s your chat) most *influential* board games of all time?
Keith Law: Monopoly, Scrabble (ugh), Catan … do we count go and chess? They are board games, just unbranded.

Sean: How are you primarily scouting this season? Like, how are you deciding which prospects are rising/falling in the ranks?
Keith Law: The default option will be to leave a player’s ranking and evaluation alone in the absence of good, new information. Teams did hold instructional league, and most allowed scouts in, so I will gather information from those scouts and incorporate it. But I expect fewer changes than in any previous year, and I will probably keep the org reports much shorter rather than just re-writing the same thing for player after player.

Peter: Which teams are doing the best job of prospect development during COVID? What methods seem to have worked? Is this even something anyone has visibility on?
Keith Law: We won’t know anything on that until we have games again.

Murph: With a potential return to normalcy by summer, is there any chance that the minor league baseball schedule is shifted back a month to May-October so that there can be more games with fans in the stands? Seems like this may be possible with no longer having a 40-man September MLB roster.
Keith Law: This was the rumor a few weeks ago – a staggered spring training where minor leaguers arrive when the MLB roster leaves.

Paul: My wife and I did Thanksgiving alone this year – and it was a great opportunity for me to try my hand at cooking a turkey. I went the spatchcock route and it came out great.
Keith Law: Best and easiest way to cook a turkey. Works great for whole chickens too.

Paul: However, all the drippings in either burnt over evaporated. Do you have this issue?
Keith Law: Pour 1 cup of water into the sheet pan before you put it in the oven.

CR: Thanks for the chat, Keith. No question but just wanted to say my wife, two kids, and I are all sick with COVID at the moment and baseball discussion of any kind is good medicine right now. My wife is a nurse who got covid after working a month straight with no days off at 12-16 hours a day. Despite our best efforts, she passed it to our 9 year old then to our 11 year old then to me. We’re hanging in there but it sucks. Everyone stay home. Everyone wear masks.
Keith Law: Get well soon. And please give our gratitude to your wife. The idiocy of the multitude put her at needless risk.

Paul: As someone who lives on Staten Island the one good thing we had was the SI Yankee Stadium. Thanks MLB!
Keith Law: They never drew that well, though, did they? It was easier to get there from Jersey than from the city. I did like going there.

commish: I name you MLB commish for a year. What on-field changes (if any) would you try to push through? Does the current suffocation of strikeouts and home runs poison the game for you, or do you instead prefer to focus on how talented the players are? Obviously stronger, faster, etc.
Keith Law: Raise the bottom of the strike zone. Limit warmup pitches for any reliever coming in for a non-injury reason. Cap pitchers on each roster at 12.

That Guy in Detroit: Keith, thanks for the chat.  Does the republican party ever put the brakes on this, or is this just who they are now?
Keith Law: I reviewed the documentary The Donut King on the site this morning, and one thing that stood out to us as we watched was the compassion in the policies of President Gerald Ford (a Republican) toward refugees from Cambodia (a war we helped create, of course), which led to a large, multi-year and multi-Administration effort to help them settle and assimilate into the United States. I can not imagine the Republican Party of 2020 doing such a thing. They’ve had chances, with Syrian refugees, and have done nothing but obstruct any efforts to help them.

Dean: Keith, have you heard anything to the rumor that MLB is ultimately is working towards two levels of full season minor league ball: a Junior Circuit (A/A+) and Senior Circuit (AA/AAA) over the next 10-20 years?
Keith Law: No.

books: Murakami fan? Favorite Murakami?
Keith Law: Yes. I loved Wind-Up Bird Chronicle and Kafka on the Shore. I haven’t loved anything else by him out of at least a half-dozen other books.

Bighenz: I like springer but don’t think he’s long for Cf if at all.  As a Mets fan I think I’d prefer signing Bauer and Odorozzi and go all in on pitching and a solid lineup while sacrificing the Cf d (again). Especially if they can sign a decent enough C.   Bad plan?
Keith Law: I’d always prefer the elite position player over the elite pitcher in free agency or when the deal is long-term. And if Springer moves to RF, he’ll probably be plus there.

Kevin: How worried should we be about the Campusano weed charges?
Keith Law: I’m cynical enough to think that a pro athlete gets different treatment than a typical citizen of color would, and MLB will find a way to get him back on the field. Also, decriminalize marijuana everywhere already. The Puritans have been gone for 300 years already. (Well, most of them.)

Joe: Would you please explain the concept of “partner leagues” and how this changes my city’s Pioneer League team and fan experience?
Keith Law: Means basically nothing. They’re an independent league.

Guest: Miguel Yajure got a very small taste in the bigs this season (7 IPs). Do you think he’s an option in the last third of 2021 for the Yankees?
Keith Law: Yes.

JD: Are you finally ready to acknowledge that Joe Biden is the president-elect?
Keith Law: Don’t rush me.

addoeh: Owners cry foul because enough media members and fans like it.  Most fans know how much the best player on their favorite team makes.  But fewer fans know how much their principle owner is worth.  The net worth of the best player is in most cases not even 1/10th of the owners net worth.  Many fans have difficulty seeing the difference between a few million and a few billion.
Keith Law: And we see in every election that there are plenty of ordinary Americans below the top tax bracket who are happy to support the interests of millionaires and billionaires.

Sean: Subscribed to the athletic during the recent sale, is there some evergreen content you’ve produced there you’d plug for me to check out?
Keith Law: The most relevant piece right now is probably my ranking of the top 40 free agents, which I’ll update today or tomorrow with a companion piece on some non-tendered guys of note. Thank you for subscribing.

John: With the CBA expiring in 363 days, should we expect a work stoppage?
Keith Law: I think it will be very contentious.

Crash: If you had a choice to live in any country in the world outside of the US where would you go? Canada, Australia and New Zealand seem like popular choices.
Keith Law: Italy. I have family there, and they have the best attitude on work/life balance (work just enough to have the best possible life, and nap every day).

Chamaco: There has been a proliferation of websites that rank prospects in recent years.  While I understand you tend not to use other sites’ coverage when making your evaluations, if someone wanted to read more about prospects in addition to what is available at The Athletic, where would you direct them? Thanks for all your great work!
Keith Law: Quantity does not equal quality. I do think Eric at Fangraphs, the guys at MLB.com, and Kiley at ESPN all do great work on the pro side. Baseball America remains a must on the draft side.

Eric: Fill in the team you predict:                                   George Springer:                                                  JT Realmuto:                                                       Trevor Bauer                                                        DJ:
Keith Law: Don’t know, don’t really feel like making random guesses. I’ll evaluate them when they sign.

Roger: Will the MLB/NFL/NBA/Select NCAA Conferences (SEC, Big Ten) get the vaccine first similar to how they get daily testing?
Keith Law: It doesn’t sound like it. The tests came from many different vendors and the federal government completely abdicated any responsibility on a national testing regime. The new Administration is not going to whiff on the vaccine.

Adam: Cavan Biggio or Jake Cronenworth?
Keith Law: Cronenworth.

JP: Hey KL, what’s the best way for a piss ant like myself, evaluate prospect bat speed? I obviously do not have the eye for it. Are there certain metrics you can evaluate? Thanks in advance!
Keith Law: Not that I know of. I evaluate by watching.

TomBruno23: Ryan Tepera getting an mvp vote from spink award winner The Commish Rick Hummel when he meant to click on Trea Turner is a sign that it is time stop caring about this nonsense. At least for me it is.
Keith Law: Remember the year three voters gave Edinson Volquez ROY votes when he wasn’t eligible (by a lot)? They lost their right to vote going forward. Funny how the same doesn’t apply when a Spink winner makes a similar mistake.

scott: I thought your comment in your newsletter about Space Age Love Song being the best Flock of Seagulls song was spot on. Do you think it’s fair to say that they don’t get enough credit for it because of the perception that they are a “one hit wonder” (I Ran)?
Keith Law: I think that’s exactly it. Pretty sure “I Ran” did better on the charts at the time.

Rob: What is your favorite metal album from this year?
Keith Law: Probably Pallbearer’s Forgotten Days.

Todd: Still have faith in Clarke Schmidt, Devi Garcia and the young Yankees arms?
Keith Law: Yes. Don’t bail on Schmidt after the rough debut.

Louis: What would be a good board game for a seven year old that is not too difficult to pick up? He is starting to learn how to strategize with simpler card games. Bonus points for games with a math component.
Keith Law: Splendor.

JP: name 3 things you miss about Cambridge, MA
Keith Law: I haven’t lived in Cambridge since 1994 and it’s so different now. I do miss being able to walk to so many places from my dorm. Pinocchio’s, Bartley’s (back when I ate beef), Newbury Comics, In Your Ear, etc.

TD: Thoughts on MiLB shakeup? App league?
Keith Law: The Appy League was just not a good circuit. Bad facilities, poor attendance, close to nothing else. I also never liked the idea of sending players who just came from the D.R. or Venezuela or elsewhere in Latin America to that part of the country, where nothing would be familiar and the only people of color in the stadium would be on the field.

Dallas: Thoughts on lockdowns to prevent COVID spread? Anti-lockdown point to economic impact. Pro-lockdown point to longer term ramifications of the continued pandemic. Do the benefits outweigh the harm?
Keith Law: They clearly do. We’ve never truly locked down here, though, and the moment states lifted restrictions (often way too soon) enough people resumed their normal lives that cases surged.

Bryan: Very specific request for a gift idea, if you care to field it: 4-person board/card-games, easy to travel with, not too complicated; they played The Mind and enjoyed it (also like word games).

[not sure if you ever played Hanabi, but it fits these criteria and is an easy one to pick up and quite fun, though maybe out of print?]
Keith Law: I can’t stand Hanabi. No idea why that won the Spiel. Silver & Gold would work.

Santaspirt: I know it was a relatively minor move but not much was said about the Phillies non-tendering Cesar Hernandez. While he wasn’t a world beater, he was a capable player. Good defense at 2b and could hover around or sometimes above average at the plate. That has value but they just let him go and the Indians grabbed him, and in the shortened season, was 24th in WAR for position players. Not sure if I have a question here. Am I making too much of this move?
Keith Law: Kingery’s presence made that move more logical. Also I know several teams’ internal metrics indicated that Hernandez isn’t the plus defender public metrics say he is (or was).

clabbers: I’m curious why you don’t like Scrabble. The tournament scene is dominated by math people and problem solvers, and the game involves a lot of nuanced thinking. You’re entitled to like whatever you like, but I think at its highest levels it has a lot of appeal to smart people like yourself.
Keith Law: To play Scrabble well, you have to memorize word lists. That’s work. It’s no longer a game if I have to spend time preparing to play.

Tony: With Schwarber getting nontendered last night, I feel like that really highlights how silly it is for a fringe contender to play these service time games. As a Phillies fan, I can’t help but wonder if Bohm had been with team from Opening Day, if that would have been enough for them to make the expanded playoffs last season
Keith Law: I agree that playing service time games, especially around free agency, makes a pretty large assumption that you know 1) what a player will be in six years 2) where your team will be in the standings in six years and 3) what the economic environment will be like in six years. Maybe you don’t need to consider the odds of a pandemic, but maybe having that player for 2-3 more weeks gets you an extra win in April, or speeds his development a bit more so that he’s better in October?

Mike Trout: How do I tell family members (who have always been pro-vaccine) that the COVID vaccines are safe even though they came out fast and Big Pharma is scary?
Keith Law: I’d listen to the experts. Dr. Peter Hotez (whose book Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel’s Autism is a great read) has been very vocal already about his faith in the approvcal process.

Jason: If they don’t move Abrams or Tatis, at what point should the Padres move Abrams off SS (assuming they want to keep Tatis there)?  When he gets to AAA?  After spending some time in AAA?  On-the-job in the majors?  I remember you thought Atlanta moved Peraza off SS too early (though he didn’t end up hitting enough for it matter, anyway)
Keith Law: Not until it’s necessary. Moving a player too soon just reduces your possible options. What if Tatis gets hurt or has to move for some other reason? What if a team has a player you think you have to get, but they want Abrams as a SS? Fans thinking that you have to move a player now to fit the roster 2-3-4 years down the road are being way too optimistic.

Zach: Clearly by your blogs you’re a big Top Chef fan, can’t wait for the new season. What are some of your other favorite food/cooking tv shows?
Keith Law: Haven’t watched Top Chef in years. We did just finish this year’s season of GBBO, which I enjoyed quite a bit, although the elimination in the semifinals was rather disappointing.

Guest: Anthony Siegler has been really knicked up in his first couple pro seasons but what are the reports about his defense when he’s actually played? Is the most realistic outcome (if he stays healthy) average-ish offense and strong defense?
Keith Law: Supposed to be an above-average defender and good with pitchers, but who can say for sure when he’s barely played?

Alex: Now that you updated your top board games list, it’s time to update your list of top novels!  Just kidding…I know it’s a bunch of work to do, but I’ve also benefited a lot from your reviews and they’ve guided my reading choices the past few years.  Thanks for writing all those reviews!
Keith Law: I’ve wanted to do that for a year now but other projects always come first.

Thad bosley: Now that you are free from ESPN, any guest appearances coming up on MLB Now?  The last time when your first book came out was tremendous.
Keith Law: Funny you ask. Tomorrow, via Zoom, if we’re not pre-empted.

Tyler: Klaw – even when society return to normal, do you plan on adjusting your future social behaviors re: shaking someone’s hand, posing for pictures, etc? I’d imagine you get approached often enough that you should consider stuff like that.
Keith Law: I’ve been thinking about whether I’ll continue to wear a mask in crowds … I think I will, because if it also reduces my odds of getting the flu or transmitting it, that’s a good move for me and for those around me. (Granted, I get the flu shot every year, so the last time I got the actual flu I was over it in 36 hours.)

Justin: Last year you noted some conflict about voting for the HOF and that whether or not you vote in the future was up in the air. Where do your thoughts lie currently?
Keith Law: It was an internal conflict, and I don’t think I’ve resolved it so much as accepted that there isn’t a good solution unless I wish to stop voting, which I don’t. I am voting this year, and my ballot will not be full.

Michael: The US really isn’t the greatest country in the world. I get that might not be popular to say like “Defund the police” but from Covid deaths, to the attacks on democracy, lack of health care, lack of free education, life span, etc. shouldn’t we acknowledge a lot is f’d up about this country?
Keith Law: That’s the difference between patriotism and jingoism. I’m afraid the distinction has been blurred in recent years.

Neal: Should SS needy teams be targeting Andrelton Simmons? How do you like his value going forward the next 3-5 years?
Keith Law: I think he’ll be better in 2021 with the time off to heal. He wasn’t healthy at all in 2020.

Lou G: Please tell me this far-right obsession will keep Schilling out of the Hall of Fame.
Keith Law: I predict he gets in this year. Look at the Hall electorate. I bet there are many voters who quietly agree with his views.

JR: Could corporate America somewhat force anti-vaxxers to get the covid vaccine? Imagine if airlines, restaurants, sports stadiums, theaters, cruise ships, amusement parks, etc. all instituted policies that said you can’t come visit us/use our services if you don’t have the vaccine? Is that possible?
Keith Law: Didn’t Qantas say they’ll do so? I sure hope others do the same.

Justin: I’m a huge fan of your board game lists. How much time goes into revising them each year? Seems like it must be a lot. Thanks for all you’ve invested in it.
Keith Law: I think about them all year long, really. Any time I play something new, I think about where it might fit on the list, and I talk to my daughter and now my partner about it too. My daughter’s played a slew of games with me over the last decade and she has her own quite strong opinions on games. Sometimes she surprises me – she likes Bora Bora, a somewhat heavy point-salad game from Feld, more than I do, even though I’d say in general she likes slightly lighter games.

Paul: Just saw the Mets are talking to James McCann about a 4 year deal. Assuming money is no object for the Mets – do you like McCann for 4 years?
Keith Law: No. I do not buy the overnight change in his bat, which didn’t even last for all of 2019.

Steve: Arozarena’s upside?
Keith Law: I’m not going to anoint him a superstar just yet. I think he’s a high-variance guy whose upside is an above-average regular who hits for power with a modest to low OBP.

Tim: Do we know who qualified for Super Two status yet? Noticed the Reds non-tendered Kyle Farmer then signed him – thought he wasn’t even arb-eligible yet.
Keith Law: You can non-tender a player who isn’t arb eligible, which gets him off your 40-man, and then sign him to a minor league deal.

Heather: If we’re looking to ban Curt Schilling from the HOF because of his political views, then let’s not be half-assed about it.  Let’s grab some pitchforks, and head out to Steve Carlton’s cabin, because he’s a right winger that must be destroyed, too.  And let’s dig up Ty Cobb, and burn his bones, too, because he did things I didn’t like.
Keith Law: To be clear, nobody is trying to “ban” Schilling, and the objections to him are not based on “political views.” Mariano Rivera is an open Trump supporter with some political and religious views I find irrational, and even odious, yet I voted for him, and would vote for him again if asked.

JP: we’ve reached the level of Capitalism where a $900B ‘relief’ package can be passed without a single dollar being sent directly to taxpayers. but socialism is the problem.
Keith Law: When someone on the right says “socialism,” any reporter – or voter – in the room should demand that the person define socialism in a sentence. Socialism has a pretty clear definition, and it certainly is not how the right is using the term right now.

Jay: With regard to what you said about Scrabble, I’ve thought about chess in similar way. It’s a hard game, and the best players are very smart – but it seems like it requires a bunch of memorizing moves and responses at a certain level
Keith LawThe Queen’s Gambit did a solid job of showing that part of competitive chess. If you like that, great! Go for it. I don’t find that enjoyable at all. I have other hobbies and would rather devote time to them than to memorizing word lists or famous chess matches.

Matt: Re Climate Change. Even if it was a myth, we still need to address the fact we have a finite supply of oil and that we will run out in less than 100 years.
Keith Law: And what exactly is the downside to reducing air and water pollution? It might lower some oil companies’ stock prices … and?

Neal: Not saying we need all major free agents signed in 24-48 hours like the NBA and the NFL, but how can MLB create a more exciting signing period? Is this just the byproduct of not being in a salary cap league?
Keith Law: That’s one factor. There isn’t a good solution here that doesn’t involve screwing the players, though. An artificial deadline wouldn’t help matters. A salary cap just enriches owners at the players’ expense. Sure, I wish more players would sign already, if only so I have more to write about now before I work on prospect rankings. But I’m not interested in any answer that takes money away from the players who are the actual product.

Josh: Hi Keith, I know you have touted Metamucil in the past for really helping your stomach issues… i am thinking of trying it out, but curious how much you take. The recommended dosage per day seems like a lot.
Keith Law: I take the recommended dose. That’s what a gastroenterologist suggested to me in 1999 and I’ve done it ever since. It’s been a life-changer.

Jim: Its a lot easier to support a lockdown when you are able to do your job from home
Keith Law: You assume that nobody close to me has a job outside the home. I support a lockdown because it is justified by evidence, not because of my feelings.

Tom: Is MLB going to decide on the universal DH soon? I’d be kinda pissed if I’m a bat only FA and find out after I sign that my market could have been twice as big.
Keith Law: I don’t know, but this should be something both sides can agree on quickly – the union benefits financially, GMs mostly will prefer it, and the product on the field would be better in the end.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for reading and for your questions. Look for that non-tender writeup in the next 24 hours or so. A reminder as you all do your holiday shopping that my books The Inside Game and Smart Baseball are both out now and available at independent bookstores or via bookshop.org. Stay safe everyone and please wear your masks.

Klawchat 11/12/20.

I have a column up on rule changes from 2020 that might become permanent up for subscribers to the Athletic.

Keith Law: Pull my shirt off and pray … for Klawchat.

Guest: What is your take on what the orange POTUS is up to now?
Keith Law: I wish I felt more confident that Democrats were taking this more seriously. I don’t think this is all some harmless cover-up.

barbeach: You’re back!  Thanks for another chat.  If you are the Yankees, do you give Gleyber Torres another year at SS or move him back to 2B and figure out how to fill SS through trade/FA?
Keith Law: I’d let the market decide that to some extent – if they land one of the good SS on the market, then move Gleyber. I don’t think he’s as bad as he looked in 2020.

DRB: I’m sure you know the quote “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”  I’m not smart enough (I wish more people would admit this about themselves), but do you think perhaps we need to split up the union like how the USSR was split up?   I don’t know why people in North Dakota should benefit from the work being done in Cali/NY, etc.
Keith Law: Or why Mississippi, where an elected official said the state should “succeed from the union” (a testament to their worst-in-the-US education system), should be propped up by taxpayers in blue states, only to exert undue influence over the country’s policies? That’s the real problem I see with our current system. Of course, eliminating the electoral college and making the Senate more representative of population would remove most of that problem and both are a lot less dramatic than, ahem, “succession.”

Jim: Keith, MLB.com just published the list of Rule 5-eligible MiLB players.  I know you firmly hold that there’s rarely a player worth taking in the draft, but will you be posting an article on the eligible players?  (What with everything going on, I can’t recall what you did last year.)
Keith Law: I probably won’t. There isn’t a list out yet because the rosters don’t have to be set until November 20th. If someone of note is omitted, I’ll write about him (or them, I guess), but usually I don’t because there aren’t any.

xxx(yyy): Any (new) cookbook recs for 2020? Either new to you or that came out this year?
Keith Law: Looking at my shelves … I think there are more books I’m hoping to acquire in the next two months (like Hugh Acheson’s How to Cook, Nik Sharma’s Flavor Equation) than new ones this year I’ve used. I’ve cooked a lot from books I already owned, but used new recipes because we joined a CSA.

Jim: So, everything points to the Republicans not having a leg to stand on re: “voting fraud”.  However, in light of the rhetoric, firings in Pentagon leadership, etc., how aluminum-foil-hattish is it to be worried about Trump deciding not to leave?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s irrational at all to worry about it.

Eh Team: What is George Valera’s ceiling as a player?  And how has the lack of a minor league season impacted players, especially younger players like Valera?
Keith Law: The lack of a season is going to impact all players, but each of them will be hit differently. Some pitchers could be better off from the year of rest. Many hitters will be worse off – and I’d guess Valera might be one, given how raw he is as a hitter – but some won’t, because they’re just that good, or their approaches are that advanced. And players had access to different resources, depending on where they were this year and what funds were available. So there’s no one answer; it’s bad for the sport as a whole, and for most players, but the degree it affects players will vary by individual.

JC: What do you think the Rockies will do with their infield/outfield??  They going to leave Josh Fuentes at 1B? Ryan McMahon at 2B? Keep Brendan Rodgers in reserves if they trade Story / Arenado?  Do you like Raimel Tapia in LF? What is your thoughts on Sam Hilliard?
Keith Law: They should trade Arenado, although I understand any Rockies fan who loathes that idea; it’s just the best move for the franchise long-term. If they were to do that, they could try McMahon at third and Rodgers at 2b. If not, McMahon might still be their best option at 1b, although he has not hit up to my expectations yet. I like Hilliard’s power/speed/arm combo but you can’t punch out 37% of the time as a Rockie and be productive. IIRC it’s breaking stuff, especially sliders, that have always been his weakness.

Bill: As a Red Sox fan, I am not sure how I feel about the Cora signing.  He seems to be well respected and Boston is not the easiest place to work so its probably a good signing.  However, past events should be considered (yes people deserve a 2nd chance (even Bonds, Rocket) but for some reason ).    What are your thoughts?  Could tehy add Fuld as a bench coach?
Keith Law: No issue at all with Cora or Hinch getting jobs – they’re both highly qualified and both served their MLB penalties. I’m good with Carlos Beltran getting another shot at some point, although if I were him, I’d try to go manage a year in AA or AAA and then go for a job next winter, when I think he’d be an immediate front-runner.

Ben (MN): How did the local candidate that you were supporting do in the election?
Keith Law: She won! Flipped a seat that had been red for 40 years. We had 70% turnout in the district, so those of us who volunteered felt like we all made a difference. The incumbent is a very nice person, but the most notable aspect of her tenure was that she sent constituents cards on their birthdays (and several voters mentioned that while I was a poll greeter on Election Day … as if that’s a good way to fill out your ballot).

Mark: Is there a good product I can buy for home use to keep my knives sharp ?
Keith Law: I own this Chef’s Choice sharpener and I like it. Just don’t use it too often – it’s actually grinding the steel on your knives.

addoeh: With Stroman taking his QO, what does that say about the market this winter?  As Meg Rowley and you discussed on the pod, this is something owners have wanted to do for a while and COVID has just given them the opportunity.  I think the number of teams that are looking to add 10+% to their payroll this offseason is going to be low.
Keith Law: I’m not sure if we can generalize from that because Stroman didn’t pitch at all in 2020. He is the perfect example of a player who should at least consider the one-year deal, taking 2021 to reestablish his value (and health) and go for a multi-year deal next winter. Andrelton Simmons is in the same boat – his defensive metrics were down in 2020 because he was hurt.

Key Frederick: Zach Lowther of the Orioles doesn’t have the best velocity, but he seems to have been very successful in the minors. From what I read (I haven’t seen him) he sounds a lot like Sid Fernandez (which is super-optimistic, I know). I don’t believe he actually will be the second coming of Sid Fernandez, but can a pitcher with his pitch repertoir actually succeed as a MLB starter? Especially with the apparent change of focus in organizational pitching philosophy.
Keith Law: I would bet on yes, at least as a back-end starter. Huge extension, great spin rates. Will just never wow you with velocity or power, but hitters have a very hard time seeing the ball or squaring it up.

Ben (MN): I made Hugh Acheson’s carrot soup that you had recommended in a previous chat, and it was delicious even though I don’t have access to fresh carrots. I find myself doing more “real” cooking in the winter when it is cold, but find it a bummer that I don’t have access to any fresh produce in MN in the winter. I’d imagine you have a similar problem n Delaware too. Do you find that your cooking habits change in the winter, and if so, how?
Keith Law: Yes, especially since we try to cook a little bit seasonally, so the produce we use changes (and we use more frozen vegetables too). We work in more soups and other ‘hearty’ dishes in the winter, and do fewer salads or cold dinners.

Nick: Do you think the Dodgers see Kody Hoese as their future starting third baseman, or do they need to find an answer post-Turner (whenever that is) elsewhere?
Keith Law: No, it’s not Hoese. He’s not very good, and he’s not a 3b.

Guest: Keith, at what point this off-season are owners going to argue that they can’t afford to pay players their full salaries next year given likely attendance restrictions? And then what happens?
Keith Law: They will, and there will be an acrimonious negotiation.

Moe Mentum: Who has done more long-term damage to our system of government – Donald Trump (sowing public hysteria and mistrust) or Mitch McConnell (re-writing rules and revising protocols to suit the party in power)?
Keith Law: I say Trump, because he has convinced so many (gullible) Americans of so many false things.

Gerry: What is your honest opinion on ridiculous assessment by MacPhail re: uprooting during a pandemic as a reason for the Phillies “snails pace” FO search?  Embarrassing and bad optics I would think
Keith Law: I don’t agree with him. I know highly qualified candidates who are interested in that job right now.

Moe Mentum: Do you agree with Cash and Mattingly winning 2020 Manager of the Year awards? If not, who were better candidates?
Keith Law: (yawn)

ck: Kolten Wong would be a nice fit for the Cubs right?  Defense, speed, and obp at the top of the lineup.  Or do you guess they are not spending money again this year…
Keith Law: No idea on their budget but yes, Wong’s a good fit for most teams. Still shocked the Cards just let him go.

DRB: I want to ask your opinion on Blake Snell’s last start.  When does the long view of analytics become a disservice to individual games?  Blake Snell was dealing, just like pitchers have dealt since the beginning of baseball.  Even though if that game was played 100 times, going to the pen may have been the higher percentage play, doesn’t randomization mean that some times the manager should play a hunch and just leave Snell in the game?
Keith Law: Snell wasn’t dealing, though; wasn’t his fastball velocity starting to slip, which has always been the traditional indicator that a pitcher is tiring and needs to come out? Plus ‘dealing’ isn’t really a thing – you’re dealing until the moment you’re not. It has no predictive power.
Keith Law: (I would have left Snell in to face Betts, who nobody gets out, and then Seager, so you get the LHP vs LHB. But I don’t  share some of the ire for the decision that many people feel.)

Jon: Keith, what can the average person do to help ensure that we don’t end up with a savvier, Trump-like individual take over in 2024?
Keith Law: Get more involved, starting at the local level. Don’t take the midterms off from activism. Register more voters. Fight voter suppression if it exists in your area. And support real fact-based journalism when you can.

Brian (Austin): Keith, have you had any experience with Goldbelly yet?  Thinking of ordering some Pizzeria Bianco and was wondering it if will be worth the price.
Keith Law: I have – a friend with the Bianco Group sent some of their pizzas through Goldbelly and they were great. It’s a different experience frozen & reheated at home, but the flavors were all still there. You just get more of a cracker-like crust than the softer version at the restaurant.

Tim: Any surprises to you on who did and did not accept the qualifying offers?
Keith Law: Nope. I assumed Gausman would, expected the four who declined to do so, and wasn’t sure either way on Stroman.

Todd Boss: Delaware certified their results 11/5/20!  First state to ratify the Constitution, and now the first state to certify the election that ousts the greatest threat to that Constitution since.
Keith Law: We do some things right here. And I like our chances to do even more with so many progressive voices in our legislature.

Matt: You gonna join Parler and give them your driver’s license and passport information?
Keith Law: Is there anything more telling than how many people signed up there and agreed to those absurd terms, and how those are the same people who believe bullshit conspiracy theories like QAnon? It’s all a grift.

DRB: Since you’re a big music guy, what do you use to listen?  What kind of speakers/headphones do you use?  I have the Harman Kardon set up in my car, and it’s life changing, highly recommend.
Keith Law: Nothing fancy. I have never really seen the value in those investments. Also I listen to a lot of music in the car or while moving around the house so I use speakers.

Todd Boss: The Nats are on the hook to pay significant amounts of deferred dollars in 2021 (somewhere in the $26.5M range including buyouts of 2021 options).  Do you think they’ll use these dollars (which are already accounted for in prior year’s luxury tax salary cap considerations) as an excuse not to go near the $210M 2021 cap figure?
Keith Law: Possibly, and we always knew eventually they would have to pay for the investments they made in some of those players (which helped them win in 2019). It may be more of an excuse to keep payroll down than an excuse to avoid the luxury tax specifically.

Todd Boss: Do you think newly-minted Cy Young winner Bauer will stick to his 1-year contract only demand?  What could he realistically command on a one year deal?  Could he beat his former UCLA teammate and best friend Gerritt Cole’s $36 AAV figure?
Keith Law: I’ve assumed he’d get to free agency and take a five-year offer, which he should get, but I don’t think he’d get Cole money – he just doesn’t have Cole’s track record.

Alex: Is there any doubt in your mind Steve Cohen is going to make at least one big FA signing if nothing else to appease the fan base and announce to MLB owners the Mets are going to be a serious contender for all free agents going forward?
Keith Law: I assume they’ll be among the biggest players in free agency, and given their roster, they should be.

addoeh: Just saw your new Athletic article.  Would a roster like the NFL, where there is a 53 man active roster but a 45 man gameday roster, work?  There would be a limit on how many relief pitchers you could have on a gameday, but you could have more on an active roster for the next day.  Guys could easily move between the two and would get service time “credit” just for being on the active roster.
Keith Law: I worry that that would be too easy for teams to manipulate.

Michael: Do you agree that the Dems didn’t fare as well as hoped in part because they are so wishy washy on what they stand for and using their power to affect change? E.g. lack of house subpoenas.  Also how do you feel about them trying to blame the AOC wing for their problems?
Keith Law: It seems that Dems fared worse where their candidates were more moderate; progressives have clearer, stronger messages about ways they intend to help the working class voter, and that resonated. That’s an overgeneralization across the whole country but my takeaway from the overall results is that the Democrats need to embrace progressive messaging and make sure they are explicit about policies they will enact. Running against Trump only worked to elect Biden this year, not the whole ballot, and that will not be a factor in 2022 (we hope).

Sammy So-so: Trevor Bauer seems really difficult to value based on his uneven career. Do you think he’s an elite starter now or will just be paid like one? Thanks.
Keith Law: He’s been an elite starter once in a full season, and again in this truncated season. I wouldn’t call anyone with that little of a track record an elite starter.

Seth: I know you generally think the Rule 5 draft is a lot to do about nothing but considering how many minor leaguers didnt play last year, do you think there maybe more to it this year where teams may be able to find someone available they previously did not?
Keith Law: I do not. Teams have no data or scouting reports to use to make those determinations.

Nick: The logic behind the Phillies not interviewing anyone for GM is…nonexistent? Are they just going to wait for Theo Epstein next year?
Keith Law: I’ve heard that hypothesis. Theo’s track record is superb, but I’m not sure waiting a year is in the franchise’s best interests.

silvpak: though they have insane roster flexibility, do you see the dodgers actually doing anything of real note during the offseason? i’d assume they resign turner to something like 2/22 or 3/30 (that’s a certainty if the universal dh comes in and beaty and rios can spell him at 3b) and i think they’ll resign kike, as that marriage makes sense for both sides, but that’s less certain pending lux. other than being opportunistic with the bullpen, i just can’t see la getting into any big ticket items  unless the lindor price drops to maybe 2/3 of what mookie cost (which would push turner and kike out, you’d assume), they want to drive the price up (lemeihu), or there’s a ‘steal’ on a one year prove it deal. thoughts?
Keith Law: I could see them extending Seager or trading for Lindor (it’s either/or, though). I’d guess they’ll surf the lower end of the market for one-year relief options, but do they have a substantial need anywhere else?
Keith Law: Glad you mentioned Rios. He can help a major-league team.

Guest: Minasian announced as Angels GM. Should I have more hope as a Halos fan?
Keith Law: He’s great. That’s a great choice. Super bright, energetic, comes from a great front office in Atlanta as well. We’ll have to see how he handles Trumpy Moreno, and of course there’s the endless mandate to build and win at the same time there. He does inherit a far better system than Eppler did, though.

James: Broke down and subscribed to the athletic because of you. Royals question – not likely competing until 2023 at the earliest, shouldn’t they trade soler, Duffy, merrifield and any reliever? I understand keeping salvy because of what he means to kc.
Keith Law: They don’t think they’re that far away given the wave of pitching coming. I would trade (or have traded?) Duffy, though, and would explore the same for Merrifield given his age.

J.O.: Instead of “runner at 2nd” – why not just have a tie after 12 innings?  I mean – there would be like 10 a year.
Keith Law: Ties are anathema to all baseball fans. I’m not even saying that’s right, but we are as opposed to ties as anybody.

Wadi: Will you be following Winter Leagues this year? Lots of prospects playing, especially in the DR.
Keith Law: Define “following.” I don’t know that I’ll pay any more attention than usual.

Jake: Brandon Nimmo has the 7th highest wRC+ in baseball amongst all outfielders since 2018 yet I’ve seen people treat him as a 4th outfielder or a throw in in Lindor trade packages, what gives?
Keith Law: Because he doesn’t hit LHP well and doesn’t face them as often as a full-timer. wRC+ and similar stats can be misleading for part-time players; if you had a hypothetical LHB who literally never faced a left-handed pitcher, his wRC+ would be much higher than it would be if he had a full-time role and faced lefties 1/3 or more of the time. He’s the same player either way, but how he’s used would dramatically alter his rate stats.

Steve Cohen: Do you want a job?
Keith Law: You have some great people there and can pretty much hire anybody you want … and I know a lot of people who’d like to be the GM there, too.

Communism: Is Stroman taking the Qualifying offer good or bad for the Mets?  Good or bad for Stroman
Keith Law: Good and good.

Martin: Which free agents should the Mets target?
Keith Law: Realmuto and another starter.

Jason (go brewers): What are your thoughts on how MLB handled the turner issue? My thinking is that if they really cared, they could have physically restrained him from going on the field.  It probably had to go through multiple levels of people saying “whatever” and letting him.  Pathetic.
Keith Law: Completely inexcusable across the board. The moment they got his positive test result he should have been isolated from everyone else. He should have received a lengthy suspension, and MLB should find out exactly how the protocols broke down and taken action against everyone who fell down on the job. Turner remaining in the stadium and going on the field meant continued exposure for his teammates and staffers, and thus increased risk of infection.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t sign the guy for any amount of money after that stunt. At best, it is a complete failure of judgment.

Chad: How ridiculous was Ke’Bryan Hayes finishing 6th in ROY voting?
Keith Law: The BBWAA did a pretty lousy job overall this year, not that I’m shocked, but Hayes finishing 6th was embarrassing for the ROY voters. Either a bunch of them submitted their ballots early, because they’re lazy, or they didn’t bother to check the players’ actual performances, because they’re lazy.
Keith Law: Voting for postseason awards is a privilege and a responsibility. If you’re not willing to make the modest effort to do it well, just decline to vote.

Guest: New Knizia game My City, good for 2 players?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s how we’ve been playing it. (My review.)

Brandon J: Hey Keith, what do you envision the Dodgers doing with May and Gonsolin next year? Full time starters, swing men, up and down to AAA?
Keith Law: Both should be full-time starters, behind Buehler, Kershaw, and Urías. (Did I forget someone?)

Chris: What do you think of the Yankees’ decision to leave Trenton and Staten Island for Somerset and Hudson Valley? What do you think are the chances that either lands another affiliated minor league team?
Keith Law: Personally disappointing as both affiliates are now farther from my house. (This is all about me.) I don’t believe either will end up with an MLB affiliation – certainly not Staten Island.

Mike: Hi Keith, do you think Spencer Howard’s future is as a starter? He seemed to have trouble after the first time through and lost velo. Could that be attributed to the weird offseason?
Keith Law: I attribute it to his on-and-off shoulder issues. More time off might be helpful for him, too.

Brian: How did Williams win ROY with only throwing 27 innings? Also is Arenado just winning the GG based on his reputation now? He missed 20% of the season and still won.
Keith Law: People were dazzled by Williams’ low ERA, when of course his RA and FIP and other stats were much higher.

agu_iii: The dodgers pipeline has been producing major leaguers for awhile.  I see  they have dropped in the rankings because of graduations. Are there more prospects coming up that have a chance of being quality players?
Keith Law: Yep, still more on the way, like Cartaya and Josiah Gray and Michael Busch, all top 100 prospects right now.

Sdewy: Have you played the AGoT board game? If so, have you had a chance to check out their Steam port of it? If not, then why are you a monster?
Keith Law: I’ve played the physical game but it’s not my cup of tea at all. Too convoluted and way too long.

Jibraun: Do you think playoffs will be expanded in any form in 2020? And beyond? And if so, does 12 teams look more likely or 14?
Keith Law: I’d bet on no fewer than 12.

Jake: Do you have a target date for rolling out your prospect lists this year? I believe last year they were later than usual with the move to The Athletic.
Keith Law: We haven’t discussed that at all yet, but on my end, I think the package overall will be smaller because I don’t have anything new to say on so many players. I’m not a fan of writing just for the sake of writing; I have to have something to tell you.

Matt: Do you have any clue what the White Sox are doing with this   “wait and see how this plays out” process? If there’s bloodwork showing he was above the legal limit, are they just hoping he gets off on a technicality? I know it’s hard to get inside the mind of the worst owner in baseball but hopefully there’s a path to get TLR out before the season starts
Keith Law: My guess is Reinsdorf doesn’t give a shit what anyone thinks. He hired his friend.

tom: It took maybe a hundred Facebook posts, along with a horribly botched pandemic response, but I FINALLY succeeded in convincing my Republican parents in PA to not vote for Trump. They didn’t vote for Biden, of course, but it’s still a huge victory. As awful as FB is, you gotta reach them where they are!
Keith Law: One of my best calls while phone banking involved convincing a woman in Arizona to vote for Jo Jorgensen rather than Trump. She was a Mark Kelly voter – no idea how you reconcile those two things – but repeated some alt-right claims about Biden that were utter nonsense. It’s sad when seemingly nice people are unable to distinguish real news from that kind of crap.

Johnny: Where do you see Abrams in ‘22?  2B or CF?
Keith Law: Why not SS?

Rey: If it was your choice, what would you do with the Pioneer League?
Keith Law: I was OK with losing the Pioneer and Appy Leagues. I’m not OK with losing short-season entirely. I think that hurts player development.

White Socks: does la russa cost the team wins? or just their soul?
Keith Law: Both. The guy hasn’t managed since 2011, he’s now 76 years old, and there’s no reason to think he can or will work with their R&D department, the way 29 other managers seem to.

BaseballThug: Jo Adell – how much of a hit did his trade value take? Are there real concerns, or can 2020 be thrown out because of COVID & him being rushed to the bigs?
Keith Law: None. Pretty sure every team would take him now in a trade.

Guest: I know there were no minor league games at all, but are there ANY players you can say improved their stock significantly this, based on info you’ve gathered from other sources, people you trust, etc?
Keith Law: No. It’s way too speculative.

Aaron: Hi Keith. Wondering if your opinion on Cavan Biggio has changed as we reach 600 major league PAs? The eye test does not seem to match some of the statistics that he has put up thus far (OPS+ 116, 368obp).  I see a player with a fairly passive approach and below average bat speed but his stats have thus far seemed to suggest an above-average regular.
Keith Law: Nope. He’s just not very good, and those stats are really skewed by a big September in 2019 when he feasted on some garbage pitching. Tampa Bay had his number – they attacked him with velocity and he couldn’t adjust.

Bryan (Montclair): Thoughts on the Steve Cohen/Sandy transition presser this week?  I don’t think I’ve heard even anything remotely negative from media or fans.  Also – any thoughts on Michael Hill as a candidate for the GM role?
Keith Law: Hill’s tenure in Miami doesn’t give me great confidence in what he’d do in New York. They drafted and developed very poorly while he was there, and I don’t think we can conclude anything from the major-league side because he was always constrained by ownership.

Greg: It’s it just crazy to think that losing one of those GA senate seats wouldn’t be the WORST thing? I’m a little worried about increasing Republican enthusiasm, and the Dems taking a slim margin into the midterms would put them in real danger of losing both houses. If they go into 2022 down 49-51 in the Senate, with the GOP obstructing everything, maybe they can make that the big midterm issue and win the senate by more than one seat?
Keith Law: I’d rather see the Dems take the Senate and get something accomplished in two years – including statehood for DC and PR – that they can use in 2022 if we survive that long.

Brian: Is there any team that’s surprised you with how they’ve handled their personnel (good or bad) in terms of either keeping employees employeed or laying off too many scouts/analysts/general employees and crying poor?
Keith Law: How about the Dodgers and Rays?

Tom: You keeping up with the running as the temperatures drop? I started running much more seriously during the pandemic, and now with less daylight and colder temps it feels much harder to motivate. Trying to overblast my goals now in anticipation of the holidays.
Keith Law: The temps haven’t stopped me but we’ve had a lot of rain lately and that does. I’m not unreasonably concerned about slipping on the wet leaves everywhere.

silvpak: re: trump – it is entirely a con job (he’s broke and the money people are donating will be used to satisfy his campaign debt) and a branding exercise for trump world news. the installation of trump loyalists in the governmental ecosystem is to slow transition down, ensure loyalists are locked into hard-to-fire positions, and lay the road for a 2024 run, or gubernatorial run in florida by ivanka. the reality show era of politics is in full swing and we will not be able to walk it back.
Keith Law: And the damage done will be permanent.
Keith Law: Also, the complicity of so many Republicans in Congress should concern everyone.

Mike Trout: Do you know what is actually in Biden’s power to make elections more fair for dems going forward, if he doesn’t have the Senate? The trends in the Rust Belt and Miami-Dade/Florida make it look pretty bleak for winning the Electoral College again.
Keith Law: Demographic trends across the south are favorable to Democrats, actually. Arizona turning blue was a result of that, and Georgia and Texas are heading that way. North Carolina might as well. They’re getting younger and more nonwhite. Getting more of those voters registered and to the polls, and even more white women to the polls, would help.

Jonas: Sportsnet in Canada suggested  Gurriel/Groshans/de Castro as a reasonable offer for Lindor from the Jays? Too much? Not enough?
Keith Law: LOL

bartleby: Understanding that weed is legal in California…how much were the Giants smoking when they agreed to Gausman for $18.9 million?
Keith Law: No issue here. One year for a guy who was very good for them and still has some upside remaining.

JR: Will you be reading JK Rowling’s new books (published either under her name or her pseudonym)? Or will you boycott based on her stance on transgender? Can you appreciate an artist’s talent in one area even if you disagree with their public stance on certain issues?
Keith Law: I don’t see myself spending more on her books … I read the first two Strike novels but skipped the third when I heard how transphobic it was, before her public comments. If she wrote something else in the HP universe, though, I’d probably read it.

JR: Personal question: have you had a vasectomy? I’m getting one in a few hours. Any last minute advice if you’ve had one?
Keith Law: I haven’t. Good luck though. I hear ice is helpful.

Brint: Any chance Bohm can stick at 3rd? If not and no DH in NL moving forward, should the Phillies look to move Hoskins this winter? While he’s affordable I can’t imagine his value is all too high right now.
Keith Law: IMO no. Bohm is 90% or better to end up at 1b.

Chris: IIRC you are a Taika Waititi fan; check out Hunt for the Wilderpeople, watched it last night, enjoyable 2016 film w Sam Neill.
Keith Law: Watched it this summer. It’s wonderful.

Zach: Never expected that DJ Lemahieu would leave Coors Field and suddenly turn into one of the 10 most productive players in baseball. Have you heard about or seen any mechanical or approach changes he made?
Keith Law: A lot of it was Yankee Stadium, especially the power.

Nate: We obviously saw Marcus Stroman say he would never play for Tony La Russa.

How much of an impact will his hire have on free agents? Surely some will be vocal, but most will remain fairly diplomatic about their displeasure.

Will they struggle to attract FAs they need/want because of La Russa?
Keith Law: I believe you are correct – most won’t say anything, but at least some players will simply decide to sign elsewhere even if the offers are comparable, without us ever hearing why.

Rob: In terms of prospect status, would current prospect Wander Franco rank ahead of pre 2019 #1 Tatis? Is Tatis current level of play within the statistical norm of outcomes for Franco?
Keith Law: I would rank pre-2019 Tatis higher – he added more value on the bases and in the field.

Chris: Surprised Justus Sheffield got no rookie of the year votes?
Keith Law: Yes. See above.

Jackie: I’m OK with Cora getting another shot, but Tony LaRussa … forget about the fact that he leaves a trail of empty syringes everywhere he goes.  You don’t get to have multiple DUIs on your resume, as well as the drunk driving death of Josh Hancock in 2007 when he was leaving Busch Stadium.
Keith Law: And his comments not too long ago about players kneeling for the anthem. I know TLR conveniently said the right things this week, but I’m not buying it until we see his players protesting in front of him and him having their backs.

Michael: Cases have doubled in the last 10 days. If that happens again we will be at 300k cases a day by Thanksgiving.  Will our country ever take Covid seriously?
Keith Law: No. We’re going to have to lock down again, and people will take it worse than they did the first time, in no small part because the Republican Party chose to politicize a virus.

Andrew: I was a little surprised by some of the bootstraps narrative that emerged about Bauer yesterday. It’s always been there (and seems to run counter to a more holistic view of his career–he as a #3 pick! he was really difficult in AZ!), but was put out by a few sources I was surprised to see it from. Were you?
Keith Law: Same. He grew up with plenty of privilege, and went to a college that has churned out MLB pitching prospects. We can respect the work he’s put in without pretending he’s some Horatio Alger story.

Lee: How is it possible that Trump got 10 million more people to vote for him than 2016?  How could people live through the last 4 years and want more of the same?   I just don’t understand how this many people can be this delusional.
Keith Law: Talk to some of them and hear the stuff they believe – conspiracy theories and just plain lies they saw on Facebook or alt-right sites, to the point that the beliefs become as immutable as religion.

Jeff: COVID has revealed how stupid college sports are, correct?  Sure, the pros had issues, but college football is a mess.  Why do we continue to tie athletic development to academic institutions?
Keith Law: The answer, always, is money.

Tom: Have you watched The Queen’s Gambit?
Keith Law: I believe that’s our plan for weekend watching. That and the Eagles/Giants summit.

Jesse: Do you have any fast casual chains you like?
Keith Law: Many I don’t mind – Panera, Chipotle, even Panda Express is fine. We have a local chain called honeygrow that’s quite good and is probably the best fast-casual place I know if you want a real vegetarian meal.

Rocky Balboa: There were 1,800 new virus cases in ND today. Unless my math is off, if you extrapolate that nationally, it’s like having 800K cases. And Mr P gives zero shits.
Keith Law: I can not believe officials in the Dakotas are still singing the same denialist tune they were in April. Both Dakotas have at least 140 new cases per 100K population a day, and positive test rates of 20% or more. South Dakota is likely to run out of ICU beds this month. Both states voted straight red, though.

DRB: Re: value in speaker investments…the value is being able to hear some of the more complex sounds.  The bass in some songs come through a lot cleaner and heavier that change the experience a lot more than you would think.
Keith Law: And as an amateur musician since I was a little kid … I really don’t care about that. I just don’t listen to music on a technical level like that.

Gary: Hey. Thanks for the chats! What are your thoughts on Bryson Stott? Has there been any additional reports that you have heard on him from any of the camps?
Keith Law: Same as last year. As I said above, anything from the satellite camp is unconfirmable enough that it won’t budge my opinion on any player.

xxx(yyy): Does John Coppolella ever get off of the permanently ineligible list? Was it an over the top penalty or reasonable in your opinion?
Keith Law: Over the top, by far, but they wanted to make an example of him, and he didn’t have the allies in MLB that John Hart did.

xxx(yyy): Do you use your Vitamix very often? What do you make in it these days?
Keith Law: Great for soups, actually.

Brandon J: For the Dodgers, Is Julio Urias more valuable as a starter, or as a “relief ace”?
Keith Law: I’d start him now, unless there is a reason (shoulder?) he can’t do that.

Jim: Speaking of the Turner issue, any evidence he infected anyone by going back out on the field?  Of course this doesn’t excuse his behavior; I’m just curious if you’ve heard anything.
Keith Law: Don’t they have 9 more positive cases? We can’t say exactly when he exposed them but it sounds like he was patient zero.

Chris P: Any word on college baseball in 2021? It seems like the NCAA is just crossing their fingers and letting everything go as if nothing’s happening
Keith Law: I believe that’s their strategy, yes.

Guest: With the lack of a minor league season, do you think there will be more draft picks in your top 100 than usual?
Keith Law: Probably fewer, with more players returning to the list than usual.

Chris P: How much of a slap in the face is it that both Cora and Hinch are managing in the majors again after 1 year?
Keith Law: How much of a leading question is it to ask “how much of a slap in the face is it?” (Answer: None.)

JR: Regarding TLR, he’s a repeat DUI offender too, so you can’t say “he needs a second chance” or “made an innocent mistake because no one was hurt.” Clearly he has no issues driving drunk and thinks he can get away with it.
Keith Law: Correct. And he needs help, not enabling.

Matt: How do you respond to people you like/respect saying reasonable sounding things that you know not to be true? I’m referring both to a bunch of people tweeting about suicide rates as well as a conservative (non-trumpy) friend quoting Alex Berenson as reasons to limit lockdown efforts.
Keith Law: Ask for evidence. The suicide claims are not backed up by any data at all. Berenson claimed we never interacted before I blocked him, but that’s false, as I blocked him for insulting another reader of mine (I was tagged) and told him as much, and he’s also a denialist on COVID-19 and the science around marijuana.

Jeb: Thoughts on Food Chain Magnate?
Keith Law: Never played, sorry.

Pat D: Joe Manchin has already said he won’t support DC or PR statehood.  I get where he’s coming from, being that he’s in such a RED state, but that kinda shows that even at 50-50, all it takes is one Dem defection from torpedoing everything.  So maybe the better strategy is to unite and do what they can and try to blame the GOP in the midterms?  (Despite the fact that the Dems can never strategize properly)
Keith Law: Or try to get one GOP Senator – perhaps one in a purple state – to go along. Manchin’s a DINO anyway.

Greg: How dangerous do you fear Qanon will become with a Democrat as President?
Keith Law: Actually I think they’ll struggle if the major social media platforms follow through on plans to crack down on that content.

Stephen: Your updated board game rankings coming out this month? I gotta know what to request for Christmas this year.
Keith Law: Yes, probably the week of Thanksgiving.

Phillip: Do you think Adam Haseley can be anything more than a 4th OF?  Nice level stroke in this Launch Angle world
Keith Law: No, I think that’s what he is.

Shane: Is Kingery a lost cause with the Phillies?  I know he had COVID but man, he’s a mess
Keith Law: Someone screwed up his swing, big-time. But I think it’s fixable.

Greg: Here in CO we voted to join the national popular vote interstate compact. Are you in favor of this? Seems like our only real chance to get rid of the EC.
Keith Law: I am in favor of it, but it may not be constitutional.

Michael: Ever take Metamucil?  It’s changed my life
Keith Law: I have remedied many of my lifelong stomach problems with psyllium husk (Metamucil) and a magnesium supplement. I understand why the former works, but not entirely why the latter does.

Stephen: Here is some info on the suicide rate not going up during the pandemic for people to send to friends using that argument:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/21/suicide-rates-pande…
Keith Law: Hard evidence seems like as good a place as any to end the chat.
Keith Law: Thank you all for reading, and sorry it had been a while … I was as distracted by the election as most folks, and certainly didn’t want to try to do a baseball chat while the race was still sort of up in the air. I’ll keep these going at least every two weeks in the offseason, and there will be more video chats via Periscope or via The Athletic as well. Please stay safe, wear your masks, and listen to public health officials this month. This virus doesn’t know you’re just trying to see your relatives at Thanksgiving.

Klawchat 10/22/20.

Starting at 1 pm ET.

Keith Law: You know they won’t win. Klawchat.

Samir: Corbin Carroll and Tyler Freeman are two prospects for whom there were reports of unlocked power at the alternate sites. Did you hear the same? Which of the two do you think could surprise the most with their power tool?
Keith Law: Carroll had power before, so I’m not sure what would have been unlocked. I haven’t heard that on Freeman, but I’m also pretty skeptical of anything I hear from alternate sites because it’s all from the teams themselves.

Ken: The sign stealing scandal doesn’t appear to be going away which must be concerning to MLB. As more people begin to speak out MLB’s investigation of the Astros and Red Sox is looking worse. If the “Yankee letter” is unsealed and discloses other undisclosed infractions by the Yankees or other clubs is Rob Manfred done as Commish?
Keith Law: That’s hilarious. There is no chance this undoes Manfred as Commissioner. He’d be at greater risk if he penalized more teams, not fewer.

Michael: Have you heard any word/update on how some of the newer Rockie prospects have been doing at instructs, specifically Veen and Romo?
Keith Law: The Rockies aren’t allowing scouts at instructs, so no, unfortunately.

Derek: Alec Bohm…..future stud or SSS this year?
Keith Law: Future star with the bat. Probably ends up at 1B, which does cut off some of his statistical upside.

Ben (MN): Do you plan on reading Hugh Acheson’s new “How to Cook”? I bought it even though it is aimed at new cooks because I figure if it is Hugh it will be worth a read anyway. Do you have any favorite recipes from his other cookbooks?
Keith Law: I do – the only book of his I haven’t gotten was the slow cooker one. I just made his kohlrabi and pecan salad from The Broad Fork last night. That book also has a great carrot soup recipe and a shiitake/ponzu salad I love.

Preston: I don’t like not being super interested in the Series. Maybe it’s that my Cubs stunk it up. Maybe it’s no atmosphere. But I’d like to blame it on bullpenning. It just doesn’t make for a smooth watch. What can/should be done in the future?
Keith Law: If MLB capped the number of pitchers teams could bring, that would help. I think the 3 batter minimum rule has had the unforeseen consequence of teams filling their pens with more relievers capable of going an inning-plus, which makes bullpenning much easier than it was when teams had a specialist or two.

Jeremy: Was there more going on with mike foltynewicz than just decreased velocity? seems like braves needed help and some reports said his velo was coming back but he never got another crack. is he worth taking a shot on this offseason or toast?
Keith Law: Worth a shot, but he’s had some minor arm stuff that is concerning. I’d put him behind guys like Hamels or Kluber, who have longer track records of success but are coming off injury-wrecked years.

Krontz: Is there a board game bubble? If not, possibly soon? Finally, how can the industry adapt to sustain growth?
Keith Law: I read this at first as asking if there was a place where board gamers could all go and live in a bubble so they could play endless board games without fear of COVID-19, and that sounds pretty great, actually. Yes, there are more board games published right now than the market can really support. I’m not sure how long it will last, but my suspicion is that the $50+ games, and publishers that rely on those, will be at highest risk. An extended economic downturn would probably exacerbate that issue.

Randall: Who is that rays #1 prospect we’ve been hearing about for years ? He still #1 for you ? I haven’t heard much about him lately
Keith Law: You probably haven’t heard much about Wander Franco lately because there were no minor league games this year.

Dab: Do you think Brailyn Marquez ends up as a starter?
Keith Law: I think it’s possible, but he might be a better reliever.
Keith Law: As opposed to saying he can’t hold up as a starter, or lacks the stuff for it.

Jeremy: which GM jobis better — phillies or marlins?
Keith Law: Phillies. My understanding is that Gary Denbo has so much authority within Miami that a new GM would at least have to defer somewhat to his judgments on players, and I think many GM candidates would prefer the greater independence of the Philly job.

Randall: What’s the outlook for the Rockies ? Never hear much about good prospects from them. Future bright ?
Keith Law: I just did a Q&A with our Rockies beat writer about that.

J5: How many HR’s do you project Ke’Bryan Hayes hits during his prime years?
Keith Law: 15-20. I don’t think he has the swing path for more. I think he can really hit, though, and he’s an 80 defender.

John: With Mitch submarining a new round of stimulus to hamstring the next administration from growth is there any hope that without a clean democrat sweep we just see obstruction the next 4 years?
Keith Law: If the GOP holds the Senate, we will see obstruction for the next 4 years for sure.
Keith Law: That’s the GOP’s whole playbook and the Democratic Party still hasn’t adjusted.

Jeremy: buy-low free agents or trade options teams should consider?
Keith Law: My top 40 free agents ranking will go up two days after the WS ends. As for trade targets, I’ll write more about that in November.

Mac: Rocker or Leiter?
Keith Law: I’ll say “other.” This idea that Kumar Rocker is the clear 1-1 guy for 2021 is so completely ridiculous. We do this shit every year, naming one guy who’s famous as the obvious #1 overall pick, and most years it’s wrong. Rocker is a first-rounder, and Leiter will be too if he throws more strikes, but either has a lot to improve to get to 1-1 for me.

John: Is Arozarena much of a prospect going forward?
Keith Law: Yes, but October is an inherently small sample. He isn’t suddenly a top 10 overall prospect, even though he’s played like one this month.

Jason: What would you do if you were the Phillies?  Would McPhail go and who would you hire as President/GM?  The Phillies need a lot of help in the front office and most fans are worried who they will pick.
Keith Law: Everyone seems to think McPhail will retire after his contract expires next fall, so they could wait a year and hire both at that point (when Theo Epstein’s contract will also be up), or they could hire a GM now and plan not to replace McPhail in that role.

Guy B: How can I argue with some of my right wing friends that making someone wear a mask and being pro choice can be the same thing?  I find it hard to reason with them, thanks Keith.
Keith Law: It’s hard to reason with the unreasonable. You’re wearing a mask to protect other humans in your community.

Big Fan: Hi Keith, after a few years of patience, Dansby Swanson finally blossomed.  I know you’ve always been skeptical of his bat speed, but did Austin Riley show you anything this year that would warrant the same patience?
Keith Law: Nope, on the contrary, he has had every bit as much trouble with velocity as I expected. He whiffed on average or better fastballs more than twice as often as he had base hits against them. This is what he is.

Troy: IMO giving $200M to a C is a mistake. Am I wrong in thinking JT will be overpaid and Philly is right to let him walk?
Keith Law: Yeah I wouldn’t give him $200MM … even at a six-year deal, which seems like the longest he should get, that’s more than he’s likely to be worth as a catcher in his 30s whose durability will probably decline over the course of the deal.

Dab: On a scale of 1-10 how much does it bother you to see fans at the games now? I really don’t care for it at all. Pretty hypocritical of the league to make players be ultra cautious for months only to let thousands of people into the same stadium as them
Keith Law: A 10. Tiny reward, huge risk. And look at how few fans are actually wearing masks.
Keith Law: The biggest risk is going in/out of the stadium, where fans will be clustering at the entry/egress points and unable to distance.

Jason: Do you think the brewers window from 2018-2019 has closed?  If so, what should they do– Trade Hader?
Keith Law: No, not closed, not with Burnes and Woodruff looking like a 1-2 now. But it’s going to get harder and more expensive to build the rest of the roster around them because their system is so thin now.

Diego: Hello Keith – what will be your first travel spot after covid?
Keith Law: Sort of depends on when that point is, but if you’re talking leisure travel involving a plane, probably Europe.

Jay: Are there people out there who actually enjoy Buck & Smoltz?  Buck seems to have a pretty low level of baseball knowledge for a broadcaster, and Smoltz repeatedly criticizes the product and harps on all the confidence/momentum nonsense.  When Smoltz tries to explain mechanics, he uses weird terms of art that no casual fan is ever going to follow.  How do these two smug buffoons keep getting tapped to call LCS and World Series games every year?
Keith Law: I do not understand why we’re stuck with Smoltz, who seems to disdain the product on the field and utterly refuses to learn about other ways of looking at the game, in the critical role of color analyst. I just can’t listen to these guys. If he were just intellectually curious enough to consider different perspectives, and balance his commentary accordingly, it would be a quantum improvement. But I also don’t think you should have a job like that (or mine, for that matter) if you lack that sort of curiosity.

Nate: i know you’re a big Anthony Kay fan, but other than him, Pearson, and ryu, do the jays have anyone internally who you think can be slotted into the rotation starting in 2021?
Keith Law: Maybe Murphy can’t hold up as a starter but I’d give him a shot.

Greg: I’m not asking you if Bryse Wilson is going to be the guy he was against LA in every start of his career, but what are your future expectations of him? Can he be a mid-rotation type?
Keith Law: I do think so. Been on my top 100 at least the last two years.

Ted: Do you think Jonathan Stiever has good chance to be a top-end of rotation guy?
Keith Law: No, but I like him as a back-end starter who could get to mid-rotation.

Jason: What are you expecting at tonight’s debate, the same nonsense, does a mute button help? And Keith how many Chinese bank accounts do you have?
Keith Law: Different nonsense, I guess. It’s pretty clear Trump believes he can lie with impunity – and he’s not wrong in that – although a mute button probably helps Biden stay on message. I refuse to answer your second question on the grounds that I may incriminate myself.

Jack: If you’re GM of the Braves, what are your next steps to getting over that last hump?
Keith Law: Go add a corner bat. They’re weak at 3b, one OF corner (assuming Acuña and Pache handle two spots), DH if that’s permanent. Ozuna was a brilliant move. Maybe they try that again, a one-year flier on a guy who was down last year. But I think they also likely need to get a more guaranteed thumper at one of those spots.

Sho: When a player goes on a hot streak, how much do you attribute to 1) physical 2) mental 3) luck?
Keith Law: I’d say it’s nearly all luck, or randomness, which I think is probably a better word for it.

Jeremy: does luhnow run a baseball team ever again?
Keith Law: My guess is no.

Ted: Have you tried or heard of anyone trying one of those Ooni pizza ovens? I’m considering the pellet wood version.
Keith Law: I own one. It’s great. Gets to 800 degrees pretty easily, cooks a pizza (if you use the right dough, which has to be lower hydration than a dough for your home oven) in 90 seconds.

Bob Loblaw: The Cardinals are confounding.  How are they so good at scouting and developing pitching but so bad at scouting and developing hitting?  The Arozorena and Voit trades look like debacles, but even going back, why did they trade Marco Gonzalez for Tyler ONeil?  That was a bad trade
Keith Law: I’m afraid that they overreacted to brief looks on some of those guys – Gonzales was so bad in his debut, and it seems like they concluded that his stuff wouldn’t work in the majors. But I give them a complete pass on Voit, who became a different hitter after leaving.

Steve: Is there minor league baseball next year?  If no how far back will it set talent development and impact the industry for years to come?
Keith Law: The odds are that there are no fans in 2021, at which point I think MLB has to step up and subsidize at least some MiLB teams/leagues, because the long-term cost in talent development will be enormous. It’s a revenue problem.

Minka: Favorite sushi roll?
Keith Law: I nearly always keep it simple when I get sushi – if the fish is good enough to eat raw, I want to taste the fish, not fillers. So I usually get nigiri rather than rolls, and if I get rolls they’re very simple ones that highlight the fish. I avoid things with sweet sauces, or tempura, or avocado, at least when ordering for myself. I’ll certainly eat other things if someone else orders.

Ben: Do you think there was a true benefit (over what his traditional MiLB path would be) for a guy like Riley Greene to be playing at the Toledo camp this summer? You hear stuff about facing better competition, but how much of that do you buy into? He’s an extremely talented guy, but still very young and inexperienced.
Keith Law: It’s a binary question – you had two choices with Greene, or Carroll, or CJ Abrams: They go to the alternate site, or they don’t play at all over the summer. In that case, the first option is clearly preferable.

Nate: The marlins were a great story this year, but do you seem them as a team on the rise that could legit compete next year, or more of a bad team still a while away that just got lucky with some SSS success last year?
James: Are you concerned about Mike Trout’s defensive metrics? Or are they likely a fluke given the short season? And do you still see him as a 10 WAR player for the next few years?
Keith Law: Nate: An average-ish team that got a bit lucky, with upside over the next several years but probably not a playoff team in 2021.
Keith Law: James: All defensive metrics are unreliable for 2020. The sample size was just too small.

Pat D: I’m choosing to watch the Giants/Eagles game tonight because I like to torture myself by watching the Giants’ ineptitude, I refuse to watch the WS as a bitter Yankees fan, and I just can’t listen to Trump’s voice.  Does that sound sane?
Keith Law: No Ertz or Sanders, though. Gonna be really ugly.

Josh: Hi.  My household income is around $500,000.  Please, PLEASE tax me more, and give struggling families a fighting chance (comprehensive healthcare, after-school care through high school, etc.).
Keith Law: One thing I do not really understand is why so many people who make far less than whatever threshold Biden might set for a higher marginal tax rate – and I’m pretty sure I will be paying more if he’s elected – are opposed to it. If you make that much money, it is at least a rational view to say you oppose a plan that will cost you more in taxes and almost certainly yield you less value in direct return (although you may gain psychic value from improving public goods, or even secondary value from living in a safer or more prosperous community/country). If you don’t, though, why the fuck are you opposed to taxing people who earn annual income that puts them in the top 1% of US earners marginally more?
Keith Law: For the record: I’ll pay more under Biden, and I’m good with that. Fund health care. Re-fund environmental regulations, diversity training, and basic science research.

Tim: Game 7 NLCS, worst TOOTBLAN of all time?
Keith Law: Kolten Wong in 2013 (?) was pretty bad too.

Mike: Safe to assume if your boardgame list says medium complexity (or less) that a 10 year old could play? You don’t have a list oriented to families, right? anyway, have a great day.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s right. I chose to put complexity tags on those rather than carve out a separate list, because every kid is a little different and I figured you would know your kid(s) better than I would.

JR: Is “Piranesi” in your queue of books to read soon? I enjoyed it. I’ll admit I was shocked to see it was only 250 pages after her first book was over 1000.
Keith Law: Yes, but maybe over the winter.

DEF: I really like your lists of top board games and top 2 player board games. Any chances of getting a top solo board game list?
Keith Law: Yes, for sure, this winter.
Keith Law: I’ll include games that are strictly solo plus those with good solitaire modes.

Joel: Did Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright do enough for the Braves to feel comfortable relying on them in 2021?
Keith Law: Wilson yes, Wright probably not. I expect both to make starts for Atlanta in 2021 but I think Wright will have to fight to maintain a spot in the rotation.

Kevin: What is your approach to following the election results on November 3rd? Most of my friends say they’ll tune out and wait for real developments. I seriously doubt my ability to do the same, as good as it may be for my mental health.
Keith Law: I’ve been involved in some local elections, especially Kyle Evans Gay’s campaign to flip our State Senate district blue, so I’ll be watching results at many levels.

J5: Lorenzen was ok as an SP in the short stint.  CIN will lose Bauer… any chance he makes the rotation?
Keith Law: I don’t buy it. I think he’s a reliever only.

J5: Is Julio Urias better suited in the bullpen w/ Price coming back next year?  Or does Gonsolin or May get the boot?
Keith Law: Urias should start if he can handle the workload. Also, I am not quite ready to bank on Price making 30+ starts next year … my guess is May starts in AAA (if such a thing exists) and becomes the call-up when they need another starter.

Josh: Enjoying any tv shows lately?
Keith Law: Just finished The Vow (great start, petered out in the last 3 episodes). Enjoying the new season of GBBO. Mostly watching the playoffs this month, though. We’ll get back on movies and TV next week.

J5: Lamet, Clevinger, Gore, Patino, Paddack, Davies… which one doesnt make it next yr in the rotation?
Keith Law: I think Gore is the odd man out right now.

Rupert: I have a 5 and 7 year old, and there’s basically no board game I’ve found that can keep their attention (or at least the 5 year old’s attention).  Any suggestions?
Keith Law: It depends a bit on what they like – I see a lot of games suitable for ages 5+, like Ticket to Ride First Journey, but if your kids don’t like maps or train games, that may not be the ideal choice. I haven’t cracked Dragomino, the young players’ version of Kingdomino, yet, but it looks promising.

Dr. Bob: RE: The Arozorena question. At only 19, Andruw Jones broke upon our consciousness in the 1996 playoffs and WS after only playing 31 games that year. Was he already considered a top prospect? In any words, is there any correlation to Arozorena?
Keith Law: Andruw was one of the best prospects in baseball before 1996. I think BA had him in their top 2 or 3, if not actually at 1.

Geoff: I’ve found myself thinking about this recently: what will be the point where you’re confident about/feel safe being around others in a “normal” way (i.e. no mask, large crowds, etc.)? After there’s a real, effective vaccine obviously, but right after? A few weeks after when infections are way down? Longer?
Keith Law: If infections are way down, and we’re seeing high enough vaccination rates in the places I want to go, then I’ll travel. It might be safer to travel to Europe, for example, where they have fewer batshit anti-mask people.

Ben: Keith, do you have any concerns about Biden’s connections with China, Russia & Ukraine? Not saying compared to Trump, just in a vacuum, does this new information trouble you at all?
Keith Law: No because I don’t fall for bullshit.

Jason: Is a healthy rotation of Soroka, Fried, Anderson, Wright, and Wilson a top 10-type rotation, or am I putting too much hope in Wright and hype into SSS from Anderson and Wilson?
Keith Law: With Soroka having some history of injuries and Wilson/Wright both showing at least some inconsistency, I’d like to see them take a shot at a one-year starter, even if that’s also someone who isn’t a lock for 30 starts, to increase their chances of getting those innings from somewhere other than the Josh Tomlins of the world.

Ben (Chi): What’s your take on all these Cubs layoffs?  Penny wise, pound foolish?
Keith Law: Misanthropic. Although given that Todd Ricketts profile in the New Yorker, I’m hardly surprised.

Mike: Keith, they have to do something about the time the World Series starts. With games taking close to 4 hours, am I the only one who checks out early & goes to bed?
Keith Law: I agree with this … we get up at 6:45 here for school and games ending around midnight means that I’m running on fumes most days. I actually went back to bed this morning because I had such a bad headache, which I think was a function of lack of sleep.

Guest: You’ve previously said Ian Anderson has the ceiling of a #2 but I believe this was before the development of his change. Does the new pitch change your view of his (already high) ceiling?
Keith Law: I’m holding to that because I think the breaking ball is a little light and the fastball is good not outstanding.
Keith Law: The changeup is a 70, though, and I did not have that.

Jason: Do you ever use UberEats or Doordash?What do you think about these delivery apps?
Keith Law: I don’t. I’ve read that their terms are pretty bad for the restaurants, so we always order directly.

TomBruno23: What is the deal with tea? Granted I like coffee and I sound like the people who hate on coffee. But tea to me tastes like someone took perfectly good water and ran it through a sewer.
Keith Law: There are so many kinds of tea – black, white, green, oolong, plus tisanes like red – and even within some of those categories there are vast differences in flavor profiles (e.g., green includes matcha, which tastes like grass, and hojicha, which is roasted and more earthy), that you might just not have found the right kind for your palate.

Ryan: As a Dbacks fan, please tell me there is hope for this team! The Dodgers are loaded. The Padres will be good for a long time too. But the Dbacka major league team is such a disaster, and the front office seems to think it will be fine next year?! Is there any hope they can compete again in 2022 or so?
Keith Law: Lot of hope. Really like the position player prospects in the low minors. But that franchise really needs an MiLB season in 2021.

Pizza is good: I asked a couple chats back if you thought frozen Pizzeria Bianca was worth a shot. I did and it was really terrific. Individual ingredients really stand out. Good rec. thanks.
Keith Law: Awesome! I know it’s quite expensive but for the best pizza in the country it’s not an unreasonable splurge.

Ridley: Just so we’re clear, Rudy Giuliani’s excuses were bullshit, weren’t they?
Keith Law: Oh absolutely.

J5: Out of these rotation candidates, Severino/German/Deivi/Montgomery/Schmidt, which 2-3 do you think makes it next year?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t bank on Severino being healthy for a full season, but he’ll make some starts. Deivi probably did the most to earn the spot.

addoeh: Any plans for a pizza list update?  I know you haven’t been able to cross many off your list recently.
Keith Law: I was going to do one this spring or summer, but the pandemic put it on hold.

Adam: Maybe the Padres didn’t send away any “premier” talent for Mike Clevinger, but they basically gutted their upper minor/major league depth in the trade for him. That could come back to haunt them in a full season, right?
Keith Law: Eh, Trammell’s the one guy they might most regret trading and he was in a different deal. I’m worried about this ridiculous Campusano story … felony charges for weed possession? was he in Georgia or Indonesia?

Josh: My theory (on people who make far less than whatever threshold Biden might set for a higher marginal tax rate, opposing it) is, way too briefly:  they (1) have no idea how much wealth is concentrated at far-right reaches of the income distribution curve (big numbers are really hard, even for smart people), and/or (2) aspire to the grievances of the 0.1% having to fork over millions in taxes.
Keith Law: I’ve heard #2 as an explanation for decades, but I think #1 is more plausible. And maybe it’s like people trying to understand how large the universe is and how tiny we are relative to it. We just can’t. So if you make $30K a year, can you really imagine the difference in wealth and standard of living for someone making 20 times that?

Mike: Is it a foregone conclusion that Lindor gets traded before next season?  If so, most likely landing spot?
Keith Law: I think so. I’m not sure what the market is right now, though. Some of the teams that should be most interested might not have the pieces to make the trade.

Ridley: Lauren Witzke. Please tell me she’s not going to win that seat.
Keith Law: She’ll be lucky to get 1/3 of the vote. She’s an open white nationalist running in a very blue state. She might win Kent or Sussex counties but more than half of our population is right here in New Castle.

TomBruno23: Jones was #21 pre-95, #1 pre-96 and #1 pre-97 on BA’s lists.
Keith Law: I was right! I should trust my memory sometimes. But not too often.

Guest: Thanks for the chat, Keith. Assuming owners approve the Mets sale, what do you think of Cohen turning baseball ops over to Sandy Alderson? I always loved Sandy, and am okay with pairing him with a young, smart GM (you interested in the job?) but I also wonder if it might be better to turn the page completely from past eras or even to try to lure Theo from the sinking ship that is the Cubs ownership.
Keith Law: Thrilled to see Sandy return, think he’s so respected that he’ll get the right kind of person in as GM. Plus the pattern of execs going over the GM to Jeff or Fred Wilpon is gone now.

Philip C.: Daniel Lynch reports from the alternate site were electric. What is timeline for his debut?
Keith Law: I bet we would have seen him this summer if the Royals had been contenders.

Mike: Franklin BBQ brisket is now available on Goldbelly.  $250 for a 5lb brisket.  Worth it?
Keith Law: I no longer eat beef, but I have had their brisket, and it is absolutely incredible. If you’re reasonable about portion sizes, that’s about $12.50 per portion – brisket is rather fatty, and if you’re eating 6-8 ounces, well, vaya con Dios – and that’s a good price for high-quality beef.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I’m taking a week off leading up to the election to volunteer for various campaigns, so there won’t be a chat next week, but the top 40 free agent rankings post will go up some time between next Tuesday and Friday, and I may do a live Zoom Q&A through the Athletic to support that. Thanks for reading, everyone. Stay safe, wear your masks, and vote for reason and science.

Klawchat 10/8/20.

My latest board game review for Paste covers the gorgeous but ultimately unsatisfying Tang Garden. If you enjoy the chat below, check out my new book The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, now out in hardcover.

Keith Law: My love is rotten to the core. Klawchat.

Todd Boss: Is there really such a thing as an “Undecided voter” right now?  In this partisan, narrative driven world, who at this point is still making up their minds on which way to vote?  Can we just FFD to 11/3 please?
Keith Law: A front office friend texted me that question last night – who the hell is still undecided? Either you’re in the cult, or you’re disgusted by the last four years (and especially the last six months). I don’t understand anyone who’s in between.
Keith Law: Of course, some dipshit journalist tracked down Ken Bone – who said he’s “undecided” – rather than, you know, finding marginalized voters who feel unrepresented by either party, or people who want to vote but find it hard to do so because of voter suppression, or just anyone who isn’t another white man.

Ben (MN): Oofta. The Twins. There is a lot of talk in MN about whether they should rely on some of their younger but near-ready prospects next year (Jeffers, Kiriloff, Rooker) or stand-pat with what they have. Any moves you think they should make? Trading Garver/Rosario seems to make sense, but they aren’t likely to get much in return.
Keith Law: LaVelle Neal was on my podcast this week and we talked about exactly that – he thinks they’ll trade Rosario, and at least look at trading Garver. Rooker’s upside is limited and I’m not sure where he gets to play if they bring Cruz back on a one-year deal.

Jack S: Keith–I was under the impression that teams’ minor league, or sub-MLB, facility this year was limited in how many players they could house.  Was there any way for teams to progress their lower tier (A ball, for example) prospects this season or gauge their skills in any way?  Are they still having some kind of Fall Ball?
Keith Law: Most teams are holding some sort of instructional league, expanding it for more players, but not every team is allowing other teams’ scouts to watch (and thus in return they can’t send their scouts around, which seems extremely short-sighted, even by the short-sighted standards of Myopic League Baseball). So we’ll hear some things on prospects but not a ton.

Jesse B: Randy Arozarena. SSS or could be a future All Star?
Keith Law: It’s obviously SSS, but he has a lot of ability and thus potential upside, especially given his defense.
Keith Law: But yeah, he hasn’t even played enough to lose ROY eligibility.

Bill G: Hi Keith.  Ignoring the pandemic and financial issues, and only focusing on the talent, would you recommend baseball contract to 28 teams, expand to 32 teams, or stay where they are at 30 teams.  Any insight to your reasoning would be appreciated.  Thanks!
Keith Law: Contraction is ridiculous – just a ploy by owners to try to extract public funds for stadiums. There’s enough talent out there for 32 teams – yes, even enough pitching – and there are underserved markets, like Nashville, that would be good for MLB to include. But MLB has also locked itself into markets that are probably going to have revenue issues over the long term and may be better off moving some franchises before expanding.

Tom: I realize it’s a ridiculously SSS in a bizarro baseball season, but have you seen/heard anything to believe that Tanner Houck’s apparent leap is real and sustainable?
Keith Law: I watched two of his three starts and both times his velocity tapered off pretty early, which would be a concern if that’s still true next year after a normal offseason and spring training. I also still don’t really see what his weapon will be vs LHB. He wrecked righties, though, with a nearly 40% K rate against them.

Sam: This year had a very large number of players make their MLB debut and teams pushed players that probably were not ready for MLB.  Assuming we have Minor League Baseball next season do you see a number of top level prospect like Joey Bart for example going back to the minors to continue to improve or will teams keep pushing these players and keep them on the Major league roster?
Keith Law: Bart I doubt. But I’m sure plenty of other rookies will go back to the minors to start the year for baseball or service-time reasons. Luis Patiño comes to mind for the former – great stuff, huge upside, wasn’t ready, at least not to start.

DRB: So you don’t like Deftones and you think Tame Impala’s last album is his best? I’m sorry Klaw, but when it comes to music, you’re like those people who claimed Junior Lake was a future star.  In all serious though, I will say I’ve gotten a lot of great album recs from you, but none of them ever became all-stars in my rotation.
Keith Law: Those aren’t even close to my most controversial music opinions.

Matt: How do you feel about Willi Castro going forward? Obviously he’s not going to continue to BABIP .450 like he did this season but his BB rate went up and K rate went down as the season progressed as did the quality of his contact so if those trends continue they may help offset some of the inevitable BABIP regression.  To sum it up, do you think he could be an .850OPS/350wOBA type bat going forward?
Keith Law: I’ve generally been high on Castro because everyone raved about his feel for the game, and because I thought the swing would work for contact, so I think he could hit enough to be a regular somewhere. I was surprised to see that he wasn’t very good at short or third this year, though; I thought he could stay at short or be very good at 2b/3b.

davealden53: I know this story has become old news but would you have signed the letter in Harper’s about intellectual freedom?
Keith Law: I would not; I think Isaac Chotiner’s interview in the New Yorker of one of the signatories gets at the reasons why I wouldn’t.

John Olerud: Not sure how much you listen to the announcers in games. But I was watching/listening to the Atlanta/Marlins game yesterday and Buck Showalter’s good ol’ boy commentary was a little awkward to listen to at times, in its subtle insinuations of exactly who were the true “baseballers” amongst the guys on the field.  Indeed, I don’t think he even had any insight as to how this might have come off, but if you care or are at liberty to comment, I imagine his “takes” aren’t exactly unique among the managerial ranks in baseball?
Keith Law: I did not hear this, but what you describe is definitely a common view within baseball. I am automatically suspicious of any opinions like that because they can very easily be cover for racial prejudices (not saying that’s true of Buck, I didn’t hear his comments, and I’ve never heard anyone say they thought he was racist).

Jason: Assuming Atlanta actually reaches the NLCS, would it make more sense to have a bullpen day for Game 3 with Wright starting Game 4, knowing that Game 5 would either be the Game 1 starter on short rest (Fried, unless the NLDS goes 5 games) or another bullpen day?
Keith Law: What’s the alternative in your mind there – bullpen game 4, Wright 3?

davealden53: Willians Astudillo isn’t a great ballplayer but his skillset is fun and potentially useful with the right utilization.  However, the Twins seem unsure what to do with him.  Would he benefit from a clean start with a different organization?  What could Minnesota get for him?  A 100 to 150 prospect?
Keith Law: I don’t think he gets a legit prospect in return. Fine player, and very fun to watch, but ultimately not that valuable.

Todd Boss: How disappointed are you that Trump refuses to participate in a 2nd debate?  I mean, the first one was such a civilized, informative discussion…
Keith Law: After he did himself no favors in the first debate, I expected him to find a way out of a second one.
Keith Law: In a virtual debate, the moderator could just mute him when he interrupts or goes well beyond his time. That’s his worst nightmare.

John: When do you see Jeter Downs making his MLB debut?
Keith Law: Next year (2021) for sure. Would be shocked if we don’t see him.

Frank: Has any team in recent history been more of a favorite to win the World Series than the Dodgers are this year?  I know you always talk about anything can happen in a short series but is there anything you have seen so far, regular season or post season to make you believe the Dodgers dont win the WS?
Keith Law: Both of those things can be true at the same time. They could be the strongest favorites ever, and still only have a slightly better than random chance to win it all.
Keith Law: I do agree they’re the favorites, though. I picked a Rays/Dodgers WS and just as a fan of great teams would be very happy to see that. Also that’s the one AL playoff team left that has never won a WS vs the NL team with the second-longest drought (SD has never won).

bighen: I know you haven’t been a huge fan of Gimenez and have liked Rosario in the past – any change in thought there? I realize not a lot to go on.  I think the ceiling for Gimenez is a lot lower but he seems to be a much better fielder for a team that badly needs some good defenders.   Do you think the Mets can trade Rosario for anything of note at this point – perhaps as part of a package to land a legit CF ?
Keith Law: I think Rosario would still have value because other teams will still remember how they rated him as a prospect and figure the Mets screwed him up (which is fair, I think; they’ve had a lot of development issues over the last 5+ years). Most teams, especially teams that are building or just always hunting for value (Oakland, TB), love to try to fix out-of-favor prospects. And yeah, I would too. As for Gimenez, he has a soft regular ceiling and I think you saw it this year.

Greg: Why don’t pitchers like Dustin May and Brusdar Graterol get more strikeouts with such filthy stuff?
Keith Law: May gets a shit-ton of ground balls. Graterol’s stuff is hard but I don’t think it’s “filthy” the way you might mean.

That Guy in Detroit: I guess the first shots of the civil war have been fired in Michigan.  Sigh
Keith Law: I would have guessed Alabama, but it was inevitable.

Jon: After watching Alex Reyes, Genesis Cabrera, and Austin Gomber this year I’m really excited about the cardinals future rotation. Do you think all 3 can be starters in the future?
Keith Law: No, maybe, probably, in order. Reyes hasn’t stayed healthy, ever, and the delivery doesn’t give me reason to think he will.

DRB: Could you share your thoughts on Klentaks tenure? How much blame for you give him for the Phillies awfulness the last few years?
Keith Law: Meghan Montemurro has a huge piece coming Friday on this, with contributions from me on their drafts and player development. It’s complicated, and some of the problems predate Klentak, too.

Paul: At this point I feel “undecided” is code for “I’m probably going to vote for Trump, I’m just waiting for some minor Biden gaff to give me an excuse to do so”
Keith Law: Agreed. Or, I suppose, a Biden voter who is surrounded by Trump voters, and similarly feels unwilling to say so publicly.

G: Is there a chance Ke’Bryan Hayes actually gets ROY votes? I was happy to see you picked him, but figured his short(er) stay in the majors would cost him votes.
Keith Law: I bet he gets a lot of 2nd/3rd place votes but maybe nobody except for Pittsburgh voters puts him first, because of what I wrote about voting early or just because they dismissed him on playing time.

Jimbo: Thoughts on Zac Gallen going fwd ? I know you were very high on Jazz but I don’t think the marlins would do that deal today do you ?
Keith Law: I think both teams are still extremely happy with the deal. Gallen is almost certainly going to be on my next “players i was wrong about” column, probably next September. He’s much better than I realized, even after scouting him live when he was still with STL.

bighen: I still know quite a few bright people that are undecided. I find it shocking but they are almost all wealthier people that are worried that a Biden win will deeply hurt their finances.  It sounds selfish and seemingly has no basis in fact but that is the repeated mantra I hear
Keith Law: I think that view is objectively unsustainable, though. Nothing Biden could do on tax or economic policy will do as much damage as our government’s inadequate response to the pandemic has. (That’s without even arguing that your long-term financial health depends on some sort of climate policy other than “sweep the forest floors.”)

Louie: You’re Theo Epstein. If it is time to break up the band, who do you keep on offense besides Happ, Heyward and Contreras? With the FA clocks ticking for KB, Rizzo, Baez and Schwarber?
Keith Law: Well, if I’m Theo Epstein, I know I have a year left on my deal, and I’m looking at the opportunity in Philly, and rumors that there may be one next year in Seattle, and maybe even talk to the Angels or Mets to see if I can get the autonomy I would need in either spot. But to your question, I’d pay Baez, and try to make Rizzo a Cub for the rest of his career, but Bryant is going to FA no matter what.

Bob (LA): Does this series between the Dodgers and Padres make you think Logan White could be a good hire for the Angels or Phillies? Both Teams mention wanting to draft and develop better. Hes partly responsible for building the core of both of these teams.
Keith Law: Great name, although I think the Angels want an experienced GM who’ll try to win right now rather than develop. I’ve heard Bobby Heck with the Phillies and Mets, at least. Ray Montgomery’s and Tony Lacava’s names have come up. Those are all names from the scouting world; I’m assuming that there will also be at least as many candidates from the front office/analytics side, but I haven’t heard them yet.

Jimbo: Thoughts on the job Mike Hazen has done in AZ ? Seems like a C- or D job he has done. Also is he handcuffed by poor ownership/CEO ?
Keith Law: Oh, I think he’s done a well above-average job. System is way better than it was.

Jimbo: how has exercise been going ? Losing weight ? More energy ?
Keith Law: I lost 8-10 pounds since I started running and now that’s just holding steady, which is fine. More energy, but more soreness too since I’m trying to run 5 km each time out.

Mike: Biggest positive surprise of the teams that did not make the playoffs? Giants, Orioles or Royals?
Keith Law: I’m floored the Orioles won that many games with that pitching staff.

Nate: Keith, if you were Rick Hahn, would you be looking to add “big named” free agent starter or would you roll with a rotation rounded out by Dunning, Cease, Kopech, and possibly Stiever after Giolito and Keuchel?
Keith Law: I think that rotation is more than good enough, but if you can get an established above-average or better starter, you should probably do so, and then see if, say, Cease and Stiever/Dunning can get you another piece you need.
Keith Law: Or those could be the same thing – trade two young starters for a guy who is higher probability for 2021.

Pat: Your opening remark answers my question. As an 80’s child & metal head, I assumed you were a VH fan. Eddie’s death effected me more than most of the other 80’s icons. Just a singular talent who I was blessed to see 2x in concert (with Hagar, too young for DLR Era). A shame to see he couldn’t control his demons.
Keith Law: I was a huge fan of his fretwork – people call him an innovator, but he didn’t invent two-hand tapping or anything else, it is that he did that shit better than almost anyone else in rock history. Just watch his hands – it’s like watching peak Stanley Jordan, like they’re hypermobile or had fewer bones or something because it seems like no human should be able to move their hands like that. I was never as big a fan of VH’s songs as I was of his playing, though, and of course his bizarre belief that a metal guitar pick caused his throat cancer and not several decades of smoking is the sort of denialism that makes me stabby.

Kevin: Why can’t we have some broadcasters who at least understand analytics?
Keith Law: Because the powers that be are still operating from a 50-year-old playbook that says you have to have ex-players in the booth.

Josh: While there probably aren’t many undecided voters, about 40% of eligible adults will not vote at all. If only the media would frame the election around reaching out to those people (who happen to mostly be marginalized groups, people of color, and/or low-income)with policy designed to benefit them and calling out voter suppression. The myth of the engaged but undecided voter is incredibly damaging to the political process.
Keith Law: And the challenge of getting more of those people to vote should be more important to everyone who cares about our democracy … except Sen. Mike Lee, I suppose.

Rod: Still a small sample, but I’m surprised by how good Ian Anderson’s changeup is, despite the lack of spin.  It feels like teams will eventually scout it better, but his delivery hides the ball well.  Has his ceiling risen or do you still project mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: Changeups don’t spin, though. His curveball doesn’t have great spin, and I think it’s a clear third pitch for him, but hitters do not see that changeup at all and I think it’s at least a 70 pitch.
Keith Law: (Which I would not have said in February, BTW.)

Cole: Do you think Billy Eppler’s firing by the Angels was warranted? And is Dombrowski really the best choice for their GM opening?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t have fired Eppler or Klentak, but those owners wanted scapegoats.

Moises: Any info on Mackenzie Gore? With the lack ofstarting pitching on Padres, I would have assumed he would’ve been called up. Mechanics? Injury?
Keith Law: Nothing I can report but you are asking the right question. He should be up, and he isn’t. What does that tell us

addoeh: How do you like your Van Halen?  Diamond Dave or Red Rocker.
Keith Law: DLR all the way.

mike sixel: Just stopping by to say thanks for the game, book, music, movie reviews. And to recommend Odin’s Ravens…have a great day.
Keith Law: I’ve heard good things about that game … I think it’s the one where the original Kickstarter guy took off with the money and another publisher came in, took over the game’s rights, and fulfilled it?

TC: If you’re starting a team in 2021, who would you rather have? Soto or Tatis Jr?
Keith Law: Tatis Jr.

Paul: I haven’t looked at the numbers yet, but it feels like there are a ton of home runs now in the playoffs after a bit of a dip in the regular season. Have they switched back to the super balls or its just a bunch of good home run hitters in the playoffs?
Keith Law: We need data, which I assume we’ll have soon, but I agree it at least looks like the ball is flying farther.

Manny machado: Am i a hypocrite for criticizing graterol’s celebration
Keith Law: Yes. Bad look.

Henry: Just want to thank you for the excellent Baratza grinder recommendation a few weeks ago. It’s made my pour over so much better.
Keith Law: They also have incredible customer service. Love that grinder.

Tom: Ryan Weathers, potential number 2 sp?
Keith Law: No, not based on anything I’ve seen or heard.

Tom: O neil cruz needs to be fired into the sun…But it’s crazy how little media attention this has gotten. He was a top prospect and now gotta think he will never see the big leagues
Keith Law: Probably getting less attention because it didn’t happen in the US and there were a lot of conflicting rumors about it. If he’s convicted, or MLB suspends him for a long time, it’ll probably be a bigger story.

Dr. Bob: I think your most controversial musical opinion is not liking Bruce Springsteen.
Keith Law: Certainly my most controversial in the press box.

Rick: Since the padres called up Patino, Morejon, and Weathers over Gore, do we need to re-think Gore’s prospect value?
Keith Law: No. Morejon was already in the majors. I answered on Gore above but I don’t think your premise supports your conclusion.

Alex: MLB is selling tickets to the World Series.  Personally seems crazy to me for so little revenue with the potential for your biggest event of the year to become super spreader and the PR disaster that would come from it.  If given a ticket would you go?
Keith Law: I agree completely. There should be no fans.

Zac: Should the Tigers pursue Aj Hinch or Alex Cora?
Keith Law: Yes. Both were very good managers. Both have served their penalties.

Josh: Assuming Biden wins and Trump is unsuccessful in whatever he tries to do post results being verified, I have a very strong sense that he will deliberately try and sabotage the office in some way that causes a catastrophic issue that Biden is forced to deal with in some way… thoughts?
Keith Law: Maybe, but other than fighting Barrett’s nomination, there isn’t a whole lot the Democrats can do – and their focus should be on securing the biggest possible win in November.

Matt: Keith – l was surprised to see Bauer 5th in your Cy Young rankings. I love your work and dislike Bauer personally, but I found myself wondering whether his past behavior affected your ranking.  I’m curious to know (1) why Bauer wasn’t higher, particularly compared to Fried who pitched 26% fewer innings, and (2) whether it is difficult to be objective with respect to someone who has a history of ugly behavior.
Keith Law: His behavior wasn’t a factor at all. That’s not anywhere in the voting criteria. I don’t think many people realized that he was 5th in bWAR for NL pitchers, and 3rd in fWAR, which I think makes any spot 3-4-5 defensible. If you want to argue he should have been 4th on my ballot, sure, I’m not that wedded to the order I had. I don’t think he belonged in 1st or 2nd, and people arguing over a difference of one or two spots on the ballot need to find something else to do.

Guest: Last night, in the year 2020, after a 60 game season, Smoltz actually touted Davies’ 4-1 record.
Keith Law: Smoltz has been a huge disappointment on TV and I don’t understand why he seems to have a lifetime appointment to the job. He disdains the present game, doesn’t understand analytics, and doesn’t even seem to grasp what scouts do or how things like prospect rankings work.

Dr. Bob: One advantage of the neutral sites: No tomahawk chop for Braves “home” games.
Keith Law: Excellent point.

Jason: I saw your report on Ian Anderson’s first start, and it was of course positive but a little hesitant on him having top-of-the-rotation stuff.  Do you have similar feelings after watching the postseason starts?
Keith Law: Yes.

Kiko Calero’s slider: Does his performance this postseason alter your future projection of Ian Anderson?
Keith Law: No. Literally no postseason performance is going to alter future projections on a player. That’s about the best possible formula for making large errors on players.
Keith Law: Hang on, Hall of Famer Brian Doyle is on line 2…

CR: Just a little anecdote from my morning in case any undecided voters are in this chat and wondering what voting for Trump aligns you with: Two Trump/Pence canvassers came to my house, a young guy at the door and an older guy in a car. The young guy was fine, just asked if I had any questions about the election or anything. I said no, that I was pretty confident in my vote for Biden and Democrats down ballot. Nothing more. Very courteous and neighborly. No big deal. The young goes back to the car and gets in, says something to the old guy, probably about me not being interested, and the old guy, clear as day, goes, “F*cking Jew. What do you expect?” before driving off. So if you’re undecided and still considering voting for Trump, know that this sort of antisemitism, and about a million other bigoted beliefs, are what you would be consenting to from your president and his supports.
Keith Law: I wish you’d recorded that one … would have been pretty newsworthy.

Joel: That Angels GM job, doesn’t seem like a good one?
Keith Law: You have Mike Trout and some decent prospects. You also have a meddling owner, a very involved team President, and the mandate to win yesterday.

Trav: More of a beg to the readers than a question: voting is not enough. If you can, *please* write postcards/call/text/start conversations. We need to run through the tape on 11/3.
Keith Law: We’re writing postcards tonight for Kyle Evans Gay, our candidate for the State Senate, who is trying to flip a district that has been red for over 20 years.
Keith Law: So, yeah, get involved. There’s still a lot of time left to make a difference.

Appa Yip Yip: What can we realistically expect from Alejandro Kirk, and what’s the pie in the sky outcome Jays fans are already assuming is reality?
Keith Law: Realistic would be fringe regular, but ceiling is All-Star, and I think that’s more than some pie in the sky outcome.

Morris: The narrative around Hosmer being some sort of postseason producer drives me a bit nuts. He’s not a good hitter in the regular season (278/336/435) but he’s somehow much worse in the postseason (257/311/389) and despite his ring saves his worst for the biggest moments – 224/273/286 in his two World Series. Why does he get so much love from announcers and analysts in the playoffs?
Keith Law: Because facts don’t matter. They don’t look this stuff up and there’s no accountability in those roles.
Keith Law: I have watched the playoffs on mute almost every inning because so many of these guys refuse to do the most basic requirements of their jobs. It’s one thing to have a questionable opinion on a player or something that happens in game. It is another to be dead fucking wrong on a fact you could confirm in ten seconds on the internet.

John: For what it’s worth, I’m still undecided between Biden and a third party vote.  I’ve always voted Republican before 2016, and voted third party then.  I was leaning toward Biden this year, but the Democrats’ threat to pack the Supreme Court is a big issue to me, because it would further undermine one of the few remaining respectable institutions.  If Biden would commit not to do that, it would likely secure my vote.
Keith Law: The GOP is packing the court right now. I’m not sure what your third party vote will do, though, other than maybe make you feel a bit better.

xxx(yyy): what have you cooked the most during COVID?
Keith Law: Because we joined a CSA in May, it has to be corn. I’ve never eaten so much corn in my life.

Tom: You were high on DiPoto and Eppler prior to their hires. Do you think the lack of progress for the Angels is a reflection on them or is it ultimately Moreno?
Keith Law: Moreno is clearly a large part of the problem.

Jason: Should a 15 year old really be trashing her family on TikTok even if the mom is morally bankrupt? (i.e. the Conways)
Keith Law: Why not? What’s the counterargument here?

xxx(yyy): how much would someone have to pay you to go cover the World Series in person? (no, seriously – I assume that’s the only way you go)
Keith Law: My answer would be a flat no. Not with fans there.

xxx(yyy): What is the biggest positive about working at The Athletic vs The Worldwide Leader?
Keith Law: There are many differences, but I was tired of ESPN’s obsession with social media.

That Guy in Detroit: Ian Anderson should start going by “Aqualung.”  And if he doesn’t, maybe the President* should
Keith Law: I don’t know what his warmup music is but I hope it’s Tull.

Fred: Please tell me the White Sox get rid of Renteria. He was in way over his head in the playoffs and coached the team into a loss. I cant recall seeing that many coaching blunders in one series, let alone an all or nothing game.
Keith Law: They could do better. I don’t think he’s a very good tactical manager. I don’t know what he’s like with individual players, but I do think he’s cost them some wins or at least some runs with in-game mistakes.

Joe: You mentioned in your video chat that the Angels should look at someone in the Yankees player development option for their new GM.  They did that the last time and that is why they are in the mess they are in.
Keith Law: If you don’t see that they are far better off today than they were when Eppler took over, I don’t know what to tell you. His tenure was a net positive. And had they signed Cole this past winter – which they tried to do, at least – I don’t think we’re having this conversation.

Bill: Dan Dickerson, the Tigers radio PBP man, does a great job of blending analytics into his broadcast. In the case of Willi Castro, he’s constantly bringing up how is BABIP is unsustainable despite his obvious talent.
Keith Law: That’s great to hear. Hats off to Dan.

Aaron Gershoff: In response to Kevin re: analytics and broadcasters: David Cone for the Yankees. He gets it. Hes a rarity though, for sure.
Keith Law: Yes, I can confirm this, and I wish they used him more.

Mark: I often have trouble getting pizza dough off the peel onto the stone without sticking. I’ve tried cornmeal and flour,it might just be my technique. I’ve read about making the pizza on parchment paper on top of the peel, putting i on the stone and then pulling the paper out after a few minutes and letting it cook on the stone.Have  you ever tried something like this ?
Keith Law: I’ve done that in the home oven. Couldn’t do it in the outdoor oven, since it’s too hot, but it works fine even at 500 degrees as long as you keep the paper fairly small. You also could just use more cornmeal/flour than you think you would possibly need.

TJ: Watching my beloved Detroit Tigers, I noticed that Daz Cameron struggled while trying to pull everything when he first came up but started to have more success (and make better contact) once he started going to right field. Is this indicative of Cameron’s minor league career or just SSS noise?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s an effective dead-pull hitter … he doesn’t have his dad’s power. He’ll be a good player if he sticks to using the whole field and tries to maximize his contact.

Matt: Are you concerned about Paddack?  I recall you’ve always said he needed a third pitch, but he seems to have regressed badly in the short season.
Keith Law: Still believe he needs a better breaking ball, but the short season is just a SSS for everyone and I’m not going to overreact to it.

Mac: Any thoughts of going to Ft Myers this weekend for the HS jamboree?
Keith Law: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Keith Law: no

Rob: Hi Keith.  Should the sale of the Mets go through, what are your thoughts on the state of the franchise/front office.  Any sense of how far behind/off-base the Wilpons were in what they were doing/neglecting.  We all know how terrible they were, but how big a job does Steve Cohen have on his hands after ~20 years of the Wilpons should he intend to right that ship.
Keith Law: This isn’t news, but they’ve drafted very well for many years now, and their biggest problems have been 1) some lack of development and 2) BVW trading those prospects away. Alonso, Smith, Conforto, now Peterson – all drafted by the Tanous/Tramuta group, who also drafted Kelenic, Dunn, Kay, and Woods-Richardson. To borrow a line from 2020 Mercury Prize winner Michael Kiwanuka, they ain’t the problem.
Keith Law: And that makes the Mets job a bit more appealing than the Angels. You have people and a process in place that you can leave alone, and thus focus on other needs.

Larry: do you still consider Dylan Cease a starter and if so what adjustments do you think he needs to make?
Keith Law: I do. His fastball is playing down from its velocity, and he should probably work more with offspeed stuff, and/or perhaps try something different like cutting the fastball occasionally so hitters don’t sit on it. It’s easy to just say “command,” and sure, he’d be better if he located it more effectively, but I think altering the pitch mix or tweaking its characteristics are more realistic.

Sam: A thought for any undecided voters out there.  Sometimes on close cases, Chief Justice Roberts will subvert his own preferences and vote with the majority, so as to create a 6-3 or 7-2 decision, because it’s better for the Supreme Court’s reputation not to have many 5-4 decisions.  I feel  like there’s a parallel in the election.  If either side narrowly wins, people are going to take to the streets and argue that the election was stolen — more so than most years.  It doesn’t seem like there’s much chance of a Trump landslide.  But you can do your part to create a Biden win by a safe margin, and avoid all the messiness/litigation/upheaval that might come from a tight election.  Our country doesn’t need all that right now.
Keith Law: Very reasonable points.

John: I know some people felt Williams should be in consideration for ROY.  Was his exclusion on your list from limited innings or more your preference for career potential or something else?
Keith Law: Hayes, Cronenworth, Bohm, and Gonsolin were all more valuable than he was in 2020. And on top of that, yes, he’s a pure reliever, with lower projected career value.

Jason: So the virus is no big deal? Says the guy with a army of the best doctors/medical facilities at his disposal, experimental antibody cocktails, remdesivir, steroids, etc. What a slap in the face to the average person.
Keith Law: A bigger slap in the face to everyone who’s lost someone to this no-big-deal virus, but yeah, I agree.

Moe Mentum: Do you have a “best catch you’ve ever seen” pat answer? Based on difficulty and/or circumstances?
Keith Law: On TV – I always think of Ken Griffey Sr robbing a HR in left field at Yankee Stadium where his torso was all higher than the wall. In person – not sure it was the best or just the most recent incredible play, but Odubel Herrera robbed a HR at CBP a few years ago, when I was there for Acuña’s second big-league series, that was incredible.

Guest: Phillies doesnt seem like a great job either. Zero prospects, need help all over the diamond except RF and an entirely new bullpen, and a mandate to win yesterday.
Keith Law: “Zero prospects” is false. Also, Bohm is clearly a keeper.

Bill: I thought the moderator did a poor job last night, but short of a kill switch I’m not sure I could have done any better.  How should a moderator handle a candidate whose aim is to bulldoze the proceedings.
Keith Law: The Republicans have decided to exploit this flaw in the system and the Democrats should either do the same thing – breaking the debates completely – or refuse to participate unless there’s an effective way to stop the interruption/exceeding time limits tactic.

Mets Fan: Hi “Don’t Pack the Court” John — if you’re concerned about court packing, you need to vote Democratic; otherwise, you’re rewarding McConnell for escalating and leaving future Democratic presidents really no choice. Biden may pack the court but he may not (and maybe he’ll come up with a better solution, e.g. a term limits amendment). But no future Democratic president will hesitate.
Keith Law: Exactly.

Jeff: Hey Undecided John: it’s called “expanding” the court and it has happened several times before and is completely and constitutionally legal. You’re falling for the Republican’ ploy by calling it “packing”
Keith Law: Also true.

Morris: How should I think about Madrigal? Hit 340 with no patience and no pop, thanks to that 365 BABIP, but if he’s not strong enough to hit for power, is he going to be able to maintain such a high BABIP?
Keith Law: He’s not. Nobody has done that in decades.

Joe: What are your thoughts on Will Smith’s bat going forward?
Keith Law: I’m in. He’s going to make several All-Star teams.

Jordan: Game you have most enjoyed watching this postseason?
Keith Law: The Padres/Cardinals game where San Diego came back from down 6-2 to win.

Todd: Can I trust the polls? Same thing happened in 2016
Keith Law: The Upshot at the New York Times shows what the results would be if current state polls are as far off as they were in 2016. As of last night, that still gave Biden 316 electoral votes, and thus the win.

Chris: It looks like the universal DH is here to stay. Most people say that they support it because they hate watching pitchers hit.  My issue with it has always been that I don’t like unathletic players that can’t play defense to be able to have a spot. Why should these players be given an out when they can’t play the entire game?
Keith Law: This is essentially the “appeal to nature” fallacy. “Playing the entire game” is an artificial construct. Who decided that you had to play the field to play the “entire game,” or that players who are exceptional at one thing (hitting or fielding) should not get playing time because they’re not good enough at the other of the two?

John Olerud: To echo everyone else, thanks for taking the time! Your insights on all matters baseball and otherwise are very appreciated, especially in the world of sports coverage which… well I don’t have to tell you how vapid it can be. Cheers!
Luis: Finally had a chance to get on time into one of you chats. Just wish everything is going well during this crazy times. thanks for the content, specially the baseball and boargames portions. Greetings from this little country of Guatemala
Keith Law: Thank you both and to those of you who’ve expressed similar sentiments here and elsewhere. I’ve been doing fewer chats this year because I haven’t been able to go out and see players as usual, or talk to scouts who are seeing players, and also because this year has been so exhausting – even with good things happening in my own life – that sometimes talking about innocuous matters feels frivolous. But I appreciate all of you who’ve stuck with me this year and reached out to check on me or just say thanks. I appreciate all of it. Stay safe, wear your masks, and please vote.

Klawchat 9/10/20.

I have three new posts up for subscribers to The Athletic: a breakdown of the planned changes to the 2021 draft, a Q&A with Jen McCaffrey on the Red Sox’ farm system, and a scouting notebook (from Tuesday) on several top 100 prospects who debuted recently. I also have a new game review at Paste, looking at the Spiel-nominated Nova Luna, Uwe Rosenberg’s reboot of an earlier game called Habitats.

Keith Law: In the shuffling madness … Klawchat.

Ben (MN): How useful is this year’s data for evaluators like yourself? For example, Austin Meadows had an early case of covid and has been awful. Is that evidence that he was never as good as his numbers from last year, or can we just not tell at this point due to the small sample and the unknown impact of covid, lack of reps, etc.? For someone like Javy Baez, has his approach finally caught up with him and exposed him as a solid but not great player, or is it just a small sample and he may be a superstar again next year? Do you have any idea how to gauge this season for situations like this, where the data doesn’t confirm what we thought about the player before the year?
Keith Law: This entire season is a small, skewed sample. Not only is 60 games less than half a regular season, but schedules are far less balanced than they usually are, and we’re clearly working with less major-league caliber pitching than usual. If a player continues what he showed us in 2019, then great, it’s probably further evidence in that direction. If a player is having an outlier season in 2020, though, I’m not going to draw any conclusions either way.

Sedona: Gut feeling…Luciano take the Vlad/Soto early path to MLB?  If not, who?
Keith Law: No. Don’t think he has their idea of the strike zone.

2020 Voter: I read nearly all of your chats and in each one this year there’s a comment from someone that essentially says “how could anyone vote for Trump?” and I’d like to share my perspective.  Biden has proposed revisions to 401Ks that replaces the current taxable income reduction with flat credits.  This would greatly increase my taxes per year — despiate pledges to not raise taxes on households making <400K — and leaves our family with little extra.  Trump is a horrible embarassment, but that is a huge financial hit.  Democrats will likely control Congress, so the chances of this passing are high.  You’ll probably call this selfish, but I’m not especially political and I have young kids.
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s pretty selfish – and also extremely narrow. If the economy is worse off as a whole, what does that mean for your income, or the long-term value of your 401K? Trade wars and tariffs are terrible for the economy. So is a pandemic without a sufficient government response. Also, I’d wager a good amount of money that you’re a straight, white man, whose status isn’t particularly threatened by a Trump administration that is rolling back anti-discrimination protections for anybody who isn’t that.

Todd Boss: Given the 29-9 beatdown last night, would you support a little-league style “slaughter rule” in baseball games at some point?  We’re already experimenting with “weirder” rules (extra innings runner, 7-inning double headers, no-pitch IBB) that have existed in non-MLB leagues for a time … why not have a rolling slaughter rule; game’s over if losing by 10 or more runs 7th inning or later?
Keith Law: This year I would have.

Jason: Should Bob Woodward have released those taped conversations much earlier, is criticism of him fair?
Keith Law: Yes.

Adam: I admit to being very confused that The Burnt Orange Heresy wasn’t a documentary on the current administration.
Keith Law: It’s a great title for a good novel (I read it, it’s solid) and a bad film.

Jason: Is corbin burnes a GUY?
Keith Law: I think so. I was a year early on his breakout, as usual.

Matt: Do you believe in Austin Nola being a 120 wRC+ type bat in next couple of years or no?
Keith Law: I’d bet the under on that.

Ryan: Hey Keith love your work. What do you think an extension for Tatis looks like. Would 8 250 get it close. He could get another bite of the apple at age 29.
Keith Law: With four years of team control now, one of them essentially at the minimum salary, you’re still giving him $40 million or more for his free agent years. He should definitely take that offer.

Jon: Don’t look now but Michael Conforto is turning into a superstar.  (In my best John Malkovich voice – “Pay that man his money”)
Keith Law: Again, I don’t want to read much into the short season, but the OBP has always been there, and this is power he’s shown before when healthy. Funny how the Cubs fans who were mad I ranked him over Schwarber have gone silent.

Chuck: Any idea why Davidson or Muller don’t get at least a spot start for Atlanta?
Keith Law: I don’t know how prepared they are for that … we don’t know how much they’ve pitched, or if they’ve dealt with any minor injuries, anything like that. On the face of it I’d assume Davidson was in line, but I have no inside info here.

Mac: Have you heard how the fall league will be structured?
Keith Law: Nothing. Many ideas, no specifics.

Ken: Comparing the two who had more upside as a starter at age 22 for the yanks severing or Garcia?  Why?
Keith Law: Severino had the better arm, but I always had concerns about his delivery that unfortunately came to pass. Garcia has his own concerns but I think he’s a bit more likely to hold up as a starter.

Michael: Yesterday more than 1,200 Americans died. In Spain, Germany, Canada, Japan, Italy and the UK they lost a combined 75 even though they have 100 million more people than us.  #AmericanExceptionialism
Keith Law: Yeah, but Biden might raise my taxes a tiny bit.

Deke: Anything dumber (non-actually-important department) this year than Hosmer’s bunt and the aftermath?
Keith Law: Bunting with two strikes, even against the shift, is such a bad idea … if you are that unlikely to get a hit in that situation, you shouldn’t be in the lineup.

Jake: Keith—I’m a first time voter (just turned 18). I’m extremely progressive. As such, I obviously am not voting for trump. But I don’t know if i can betray my heart and vote joe. He has a brutal history, and won’t bring about meaningful change. How do i vote?
Keith Law: You vote for Biden. You have two choices here that matter. One might not bring about meaningful change from our history, but he will bring about meaningful change from the last four years. The other will get to keep appointing conservative judges, gutting environmental laws, killing LGBTQ+ protections, muzzling scientists, and mishandling crises. This isn’t hard. And it’s not only about you.

BirdlandBro: Hey Keith, your thoughts on the Orioles?  Do you see real positive strides being made and potentially an accelerated rebuild?  Or just small sample size?
Keith Law: Just a small sample size.

Bryan (Montclair): What do you think the impact will be on pitchers in 2021 based on this truncated season? Anecdotally, I would think that starters will have a longer time getting stretched out/pitching through a long 2021 season, at the very least. Not to mention an uptick in injuries.
Keith Law: I share your concern – and I think it’s the main reason we will see some sort of fall league, so minor leaguers who didn’t see the majors aren’t left with virtually no innings this year.

Cory: What’s the deal with Mize’s lack of command; wasn’t that supposed to be his biggest strength? Cause for concern?
Keith Law: Again, tiny samples.

Jordan: Do you see the Padres talent ever stacking up enough to overtake the dodgers for a division title? Or does LAs combination of cash and organizational acumen make SD a groomsmen for the next decade?
Keith Law: Some of it is just luck – you stay healthier one year, or you have a guy have an outlier year like Cronenworth – but I will say no large-market team would scare me more as a competitor than the Dodgers. They’re extremely strong at the major-league and minor-league levels, they keep finding high-end talent in the draft even when they draft low, and they’re exceptionally well-run.

BJ: Are you coming around on Mountcastle? All the guy does is hit. Even if the BB% boost is just a small sample, who cares? Why walk when you can rake?
Keith Law: Because when you don’t walk, pitchers tailor their approach and you don’t rake so much.

Larry: Whats your level of concern for Soroka’s future while coming back from the Achilles tear?
Keith Law: None.

Greg: Fried, Soroka, Anderson seem like logical pieces in the future Atlanta rotations. Any other internal guys who you think could figure it out and join them?
Keith Law: I would bet that one of that group of Wright, Wilson, Toussaint, Davidson would figure it out … but I am not really sure which one I’d bet on. Touki has the best arsenal, and all the athleticism in the world, and when he’s on – repeating his delivery especially – he’s the best of the quartet.
Keith Law: If he doesn’t figure it out in Atlanta, he’ll spend the next ten years going from team to team because every pitching coach will want to work with him. He could be the new Edwin Jackson.

Matt: 200K dead Americans but 2020 Voter is concerned about his 401. That’s nice.
Keith Law: I wonder if questions like that are just bait.

Adam: Is it odd that the Padres, for all their drafting and IFA prowess, have a roster comprised of only maybe 2 “homegrown” players, depending on your definition of the term?
Keith Law: They’ve used a lot of homegrown players to acquire guys on the roster. Also, you’re probably not counting Tatis Jr. as homegrown, since he originally signed with another club, but he never played an official game with any other org but the Padres.

James: Do you agree with Kershaw that the extra-inning rule is “not real baseball”?
Keith Law: It’s not my kind of baseball.

Steven: If Bart can hit .250+, is he an all star?
Keith Law: What’s his OBP in that scenario?

Matthew: All the beat writers seem to think Cleveland will decline Hand and Santana’s options and trade Lindor in a massive salary clearance this offseason. With Carrasco set to achieve 10-and-5 next May or so, I’d imagine they’ll also be eager to move his salary while they still can, without his approval. What do you think his trade value is like? Definitely a unique case.
Keith Law: I would bet it’s high. People seem to love Carrasco the person, and obviously he’s a top-end pitcher. I think they’d do very well if they trade him – multiple real prospects in return.

Guest: Would you bring up brailen marquez for the last bit of this year if you were jed/theo?
Keith Law: Assuming he’s ready & healthy, he’d be a hell of a weapon in relief.

Jon: It looks like Andres Gimenez has overtaken Rosario at SS, at least for the rest of the season.  If you’re the Mets, what do you do with Rosario next year?  Try him in CF, trade him or see if he can still become what a lot of people thought he could be?
Keith Law: My guess is they’ll end up trading him. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him succeed somewhere else.

zeke: Do you think the anti-Military comments and COVID disclosures re “Clown Hitler” move the needle at all?
Keith Law: You would think so … how any veteran or military family could hand-wave this away is beyond me.

Brian: Do you think some players perform better because of not having fans? Thinking specifically of Darvish.
Keith Law: No.

Appa Yip Yip: Are you buying Teoscar Hernandez? His good run started last year.
Keith Law: Another 2019 breakout candidate. More buying than selling, I would say, but again, 2020 is a tiny sample and I would not extrapolate any player having a strong but outlier six weeks into him doing it for a whole year.

Brian: Ian Happ is another breakout you jumped the gun on. Great power and OBP mix. Think he can be a regular All-Star?
Keith Law: I do – he was one of my bigger breakout disappointments because I was always pretty confident he’d be a strong OBP/doubles guy at the worst while playing a few positions.

Johnny Tuttle: Why did Libertarianism take such virulent root in the US?
Keith Law: Isn’t it innate? One of the original 13 states has “Live Free or Die” as its motto.

Greg P: Isn’t it scary to think 45% of Americans will vote for Trump?
Keith Law: 45% of voters will. Not the same thing. The problem is all the people who don’t vote, many of whom will see their quality of life affected quite directly by the outcome.

Adam Trask: You still think Hinch gets hired again but not Luhnow? Hinch knew about it and couldn’t control his team. Luhnow may not have known and got screwed. And he seems to have interest from the A-Rod group at least.
Keith Law: Luhnow knew. Let’s not revise history here.

Guest: Awesome to hear you’re running. Interesting to know you can do something you never thought possible. In that sense, do you have any hope that we’ll see substantial progress in climate change in our lifetime?
Keith Law: I think we will in my daughter’s lifetime, but by then it may be far too late.

Tracy: If this current administration is defeated this fall, should the Biden admin go after any of the obvious lawbreakers who’ve run amok the last four years? I’d hate to see them literally get away with murder because the new administration would deem it “ not worth it.” Sends a bad message that there are indeed two separate sets of laws that are enforced.

Keith Law: Yes. Lock them up.

Mike Trout: Another Mets SSS but gosh Dom Smith. I know you were always high on him – how good can he be?
Keith Law: He started this last year in limited time, so I’m more inclined to believe it – but I’ve also always been a believer. Funny how much grief he got after 1 HR in his first season in full-season ball. Since the start of 2019, he’s played 125 games and hit 18 homers with a .301/.371/.572 line, and he’s hitting lefties too. That’ll play.

OZ: For the guy who is going to vote Trump because of Biden’s 401K plan:  the 401K tax deduction is highly regressive, it gives a larger tax break to those with higher incomes (higher tax brackets) while providing a limited benefit to low and middle class savers.  Moving to a flat credit will provide a larger break and more incentive for middle class families.  If your taxes are raised by this plan its because you have a large income and can afford it.  However its unlikely to make much of a difference since Roth IRAs are taxed differently than 401Ks so savers can easily switch to contributing to a Roth IRA instead.
Keith Law: Well, there you go. I have voted for years in direct opposition to my own interests when it comes to tax rates, because 1) there is no reason on earth I need a tax break and 2) I am at least vaguely aware that there are other people on this planet besides me.

John: Do you think Derek fisher will have a teoscar style breakout? They share some (possibly superficial) similarities. Also, do you believe in teoscar’s breakout?
Keith Law: Fisher’s really interesting because his tools – plus power, 70 run – have long outstripped his production, and there hasn’t been a great reason why. It’s been true in the field and at the plate since he was at UVA. His 34 PA this year don’t tell us anything at all, but he’d at least be someone to watch if you are looking on the Jays roster for a player with the physical tools to be the sort of found money that Teoscar has been.

Kevin: Is trent grisham a center fielder now? A lot of people felt he couldn’t succeed there before this season.
Keith Law: I’d be shocked if he was able to play above-average defense in CF for a whole year.

Nolan: have any of these “I’m a leftist how could I possibly vote for Biden?” people ever heard of the Supreme Court? Noticed how many times RBG has been hospitalized recently?
Keith Law: The Supreme Court is where they play tennis at their local country clubs.

Ron: What would you say to disaffected leftists who see both Biden and Trump as horrendous candidates whose parties both actively stifle progressive policies? How long do we have to keep voting for the lesser of two-evils while deluding ourselves that next election will be different?
Keith Law: See all the answers above, and maybe consider the privilege in your self-definition as a “disaffected leftist” instead of someone whose livelihood or even existence is threatened by four more years of this shit.

Sedona: Is Domingo German a lock for the rotation next year?  Tanaka, Paxton, Happ should be FA’s.  Do you think Schmidt, Devei and Severino say otherwise?
Keith Law: I don’t think German or Severino are rotation locks for 2021.

Steven: I would say Bart’s OBP would have to be .340
Keith Law: If he does that, with his power and defense, he’s a star. But I’m not sure he gets there unless he continues to be a HBP magnet.

Dave: Whether or not it’s actually indicative, it’s clearly a small (and unreliable) sample size. That being said, does Bobby Dalbec have the  potential to be a big league regular?
Keith Law: I think he has a fringe regular ceiling but will likely be a good bench player.

Chamaco: The Athletic is running a special – $1 a month for 6 months.  Will that allow me to read everything you have written since starting there?
Keith Law: Yes. I don’t think it’s limited in any way.

Jason: Do you think josh lindblom could be good in relief? he clearly isnt cut for starting in MLB
Keith Law: Yes.

Luis Robert: Luis Robert is walking almost twice as often as he did in AAA. Is this SSS noise, or a positive step?
Keith Law: Everything. In. 2020. Is. A. Small. Sample.
Keith Law: If this were a regular season we wouldn’t even be at Memorial Day.

Chamaco: Any good reason why scouts can’t attend MLB games or alt. sites? Seems like there is enough room to socially distance even with players in the stands.
Keith Law: Certain owners didn’t want to spend the money to send scouts out to games, so they pushed for MLB to just ban them all.

Mike: Klaw, if Steve Cohen hired you to run the Mets, what are the top things you would tell him that needs to be done? Would you even have interest in a front office position?
Keith Law: I would actually leave a lot of people in place. They’ve drafted really well, and you’re seeing more of that this year and last year with Smith’s emergence, Conforto, Alonso, and perhaps Peterson (he should be better than this, the BB% is surprising). Their development on the pitching side has improved. Their two biggest problems have been injuries and major-league transactions.

Nelson: It’s a small sample obviously, but Braves fans have been cautiously optimistic about Austin Riley’s approach at the plate improving. Have you seen much of him this year? Quality of ABs seems vastly improved to my eyes, especially on the last month.
Keith Law: Tiny sample. And they’ve faced a lot of bad pitching in that span.

Tim KC: Hey Keith…I am afraid that all the rule changes for this experimental year is going convince Manfred to negotiate to keep changes and push for further (bad) changes next CBA negotiations (and greater possibility of strike/lock out).  (Only pro-universal DH.). Can you talk me off the ledge or is it legit concerns?
Keith Law: The union has to agree to all of it. Universal DH is a lock. Don’t see the union agreeing to many other things like 7-inning games, which would reduce the need for so many relievers.

Appa Yip Yip: Libertarianism in America also has to be put into the context of having one political party that does everything it can to make the state inept. Freedom from government interference makes a lot more sense when your government is constantly being kneecapped by the people responsible for running it.
Keith Law: Not unreasonable. Although I think there’s such a strong cultural “don’t tell me what to do” mentality here that overruns any sense of “I should care about others” that you might expect from a nation that so often likes to refer to itself as a Christian one.

Maddy: Looking at 2021 Prospect Rankings, how are you going to go about not getting a traditional season-long look at prospects? How many changes are we realistically going to see?
Keith Law: We’ll have a lot of graduations, the addition of this year’s draft, and possibly some stuff from fall baseball. That’ll make for fewer changes than in a normal year, and I’m assuming my team by team writeups will be shorter as a result of guys not playing, but there will at least be sufficient changes to make the top 100 pretty fresh.

Brent: Dylan Cease has been productive getting guys out without a high K-rate. Do you see that continuing or will he have to miss more bats to continue the success?
Keith Law: I think he needs a higher K rate, but I also think his K rate will improve.
Keith Law: Secondary stuff has shown at least flashes of being good enough to miss more bats.

Greg: Obviously small sample, but is Plesac a mid rotation guy long term?
Keith Law: Yeah, I’m buying that.

Mike Trout: I read “you’re running” as in running for office. Law 2024!
Keith Law: I don’t need to run – we’ve got progressive candidates running all over the place here in Delaware. I voted in our primary for Kyle Evans Gay, a progressive running to flip our State Senate seat (it’s been red for over 20 years); and Jess Scarane, the progressive candidate running against incumbent Senator Chris Coons. I also donated to help other progressive candidates for our state legislature, including Sarah McBride, Debbie Harrington, and Stephanie Barry.

Jason: Would the US Postal Service be in better shape if it wasn’t forced to prefund its retirees’ health benefits 75 years into the future or do they need to radically change the organization?
Keith Law: Pretty sure it’s the former.

Johnny Tuttle: I was exhilarated when players walked off the fields/courts/rinks. We need more of this leadership.

PS: Why do white people revere Jackie and MLK decades afterwards but hate LeBron now? Hang on, I think I’ve figured it out on my own.
Keith Law: Yep. Much easier to laud these guys well after the fact.

Kevin: Will the Mariners call up Taylor Trammell for some time this year? Would you? A Trammell/Kelenic/J-Rod outfield looks mightyyyyy nice in theory.
Keith Law: I would call Trammell and Kelenic up now, since it’s not like they’d be taking time away from anyone important for their futures.

Joe: What are your thoughts about contracting MILB teams? As a fan and taxpayer that built a new stadium for a team being eliminated, I’m irritated that rich MLB can’t afford to support these teams.
Keith Law: I have mixed feelings on this. Some markets just didn’t support their teams, and were more headaches for their parent clubs (due to travel, facilities, etc.) than anything else. The Appalachian League will barely be missed – nobody went to most of those games. And MLB should have more say in where MiLB franchises are located, for the convenience of moving players around, and to manage the reach of the game into better or larger markets. That said, eliminating all of short-season baseball is a terrible player development move, a penny wise and pound foolish decision that reduces jobs in baseball for players and staff alike.

Tracy: All this talk of uniting this country might backfire on the next administration. There will still be a large faction who will oppose any attempts that may help “them” (non-white people). Same reasons Biden should forget about “bi-partisanship.” It’s not going to happen. Do not waste time like Obama did. You get screwed in the end.
Keith Law: I read Ben Rhodes’ book The World As It Is, about his time in the Obama White House, and while I don’t think this was his intended message, it was the one I took away. You can’t work with people who don’t intend to work with you. Negotiating with someone who consistently acts in bad faith is far different from negotiating with someone who acts in good faith. You need a different strategy and different tactics.

Chaz: Have seen a few ups and many downs from Evan White this season. Obviously didn’t have the most experience heading into the season, but will he figure it out? Seems like a velocity problem ie: he can’t hit the hard stuff.
Keith Law: That was my take too. If you can’t hit velocity, this is not the sport for you.

The Ghost in Texas: What kind of prospect was kiner-falefa. SSS but the guy looks like he belongs has he changed anything to allow himself to be more productive than expected? And is he a starter on a winning club? (Not currently of course bc Tex is awful)
Keith Law: He didn’t start catching until he was 21, in his fourth season in pro ball, and without that he wasn’t really a prospect at all. Less than two years later, he was in the majors, so his window to appear on anyone’s lists was very short. This year is the first time (so far) he’s slugged .400+ at any stop at all, and it’s just because his BABIP has jumped 57 points. So, he wasn’t a prospect until he could catch, and his 2020 line looks like a pretty serious outlier at the plate. However, a C-IF like him has value if he can just get on base like IKF has, so I think he’s a useful player on a winning club, but not a starter.

kc: although it’s a weird season, pretty excited for the future of baseball with some of these young players
Keith Law: I am too.

Matthew: I’ve been reading these chats for too long because I remember when all the Cubs fans would come and disparage you for saying Junior Lake wasn’t a star when he was good for like 3 weeks one time.
Keith Law: Never forget. Junior Lake and Brett Jackson belong on some sort of All-Star Klaw Hates My Team’s Prospects roster.

Leftist: Your responses to leftists are emblematic of the Democratic Party’s inevitable downfall. Instead of attempting to reach out and expand the net of potential voters, you mock, ridicule, and use inconsistent logic (such as implying that Biden, who was instrumental in appointing Scalia and Thomas, has a clean record with SCOTUS). Instead of dismissing an entire movement as “privileged”, maybe consider that some of us are actually marginalized BIPOC and just don’t trust someone with as horrible a record as Biden.
Keith Law: I never implied Biden has a clean record with SCOTUS; that’s your inference, and a bad-faith one at that. I implied that I’d prefer Biden’s choice for SCOTUS, especially if it comes with a Democrat-controlled Senate, to Trump’s choice. We have clear data on the type of justice Trump would nominate, but those examples you give for Biden came 20+ years ago and were not his nominees. If you think that, as President, Biden is going to nominate the next Antonin Scalia, I’m not sure we can have a rational discussion on the subject.

JJ: Watched the Red Sox game with my dad the other night, and after a Bobby Dalbec strkeout, I casually mentioned to Dad that the Sox picked Dalbec one pick before Shane Bieber was chosen.  My dad went nuts, saying that Dave Dombrowski was an idiot who ruined the Red Sox.  My question:  at that point in the draft (4th round) do GMs have any idea of who they’re picking, or is it a 100% scouting director decision?
Keith Law: Scouting director decision – but also, Bieber wasn’t throwing anywhere near this hard when in college.

2022: Do you foresee a work stoppage in 2022? Starting to think the 2021 season might be the only full year we get until 2023 (and even 2021 could be impacted by COVID).
Keith Law: It’s a real concern, although I wonder if players would approach the talks differently after losing more than half of this season, and look for more guaranteed money even if it cuts off long-term upside. (Not saying that should be their strategy, just that it might be.)

Lyle: SSS and all but have you seen enough from Kyle Lewis to believe that he’s an everyday OF going forward?
Keith Law: SSS – and Lewis hasn’t had a huge run of health since college, either. I’m not rooting against him, but if you’re DiPoto, you have to consider that when planning the future of your roster. (Maybe that means Lewis ends up taking DH time to keep him playing, eventually.)

The Ghost in Texas: In normal times Spring Training would be going strong 6 months from now. What do u think the chances are ST 2021 will look anything similar to previous seasons. As someone that travels to Phoenix each year for a great weekend I beg u to not make me cry.
Keith Law: I would guess we get spring training but if we don’t have a vaccine it might be without fans, or with very few fans.

Nate: Hearing of any prospects at satellite sites that have made big jumps this year?
Keith Law: Yes, but I don’t take any of it seriously until they show it in games. Any team can claim their prospects look great when nobody else can watch them.

Jason: Is devin williams a future closer?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jason: As an author, where do you want to see most of your readers get your book: Amazon vs. supporting a local bookstore, ebook vs print vs audiobook or you don’t have a preference?
Keith Law: My incentives are all over the place. The more you pay for the book, the more I get in royalties against my advance, although it’s a small amount on any one book. But I also want more people to read my books, since it was so much work to write them. And I also want to be sure independent bookstores continue to exist, as I enjoy them so much as a consumer, and I believe they contribute to diversity in what gets published. So … buy my books wherever you want, in whatever format you want, and I will be grateful.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks for reading and for all of your questions, as always. Stay safe, wear your masks, and make sure you’re registered to vote!

Klawchat 8/27/20.

My latest post for subscribers to the Athletic looks at the debuts from Triston McKenzie, Sixto Sanchez, Wil Crowe, and Joey Bart. I reviewed the new tile-laying and set collection board game Succulent for Paste.

Keith Law: Let us have peace, let us have life. Klawchat.

Guest: Have you had a chance to see Tony Gonsolin throw this season? Has his new knuckle-change elevated his ceiling at all?
Keith Law: Yes. He has only thrown 16 of those knuckle-curves and has no ability to command the pitch at all right now. I don’t think it’ll make any difference until and unless that changes.

Ken: Buehler to the DL and the Dodger don’t call up Tony Gonsolin? Seems odd.
Keith Law: He threw on Monday at the alternate site. He wouldn’t be available to pitch tonight or tomorrow.
Keith Law: That was what I guessed even before a quick Twitter search confirmed it.

Henry: What’s your long-term thoughts on Ian Anderson? I was impressed yesterday.
Mark: The Athletic was kicking around White Sox trade proposals for Lance Lynn, including cashing out Reynaldo Lopez or Dylan Cease for Lynn. Based on what you have seen so far from Cease’s starts and his years of control, would you make that trade if you were Hahn?
Keith Law: Yes, I would. Not sure Lopez has any trade value right now, though.

Gus: Has Corbin Burnes returned to where you thought he would be (before last year’s disaster)?
Keith Law: Not yet. He’s still throwing fewer strikes than I expected. Stuff is there, and whatever the issue was last year – mechanics or just tipping pitches – it mostly seems to be resolved.

Nate (Seattle): What can be done to reduce K% & increase BIP%?
Keith Law: Raise the bottom of the strike zone. I think an automated zone will result in fewer called strikes anyway, although the tradeoff there might be fewer swings in total.

Chuck: Who is the best Royals pitching prospect:  Lynch or Asa
Keith Law: Lynch.

WhiteSoxAndy: Obviously we had last season as well, but I’m gonna reiterate you were right to believe in Lucas Giolito!
Keith Law: That can’t be right. The internet told me I’m never right about anything and I suck at my job.

Greg: Does Atlanta have a pitching development problem? How can guys with the quality of stuff that Touki, Wright, Bryse Wilson, Newcomb have somehow be unable to even be a backend starter so far?
Keith Law: (Points at Max Fried)

Patty O’Furniture: So, Ian Anderson looked pretty dang good eh?
Keith Law: He looked good, but not great. His breaking ball wasn’t very good, with very short break for its velocity, and I don’t think any of his pitches was really plus. He showed good command and I love how he pitched. The individual pitches were a little lighter than I’d hoped, though.

Kelly: Your guess on the name(s) or prospect rank of the PTBNL in the Walker trade to Jays?
Keith Law: Might just be cash considerations. He’s a free agent in a month. I honestly don’t know what they discussed though.

Matthew: With Triston McKenzie rising from the ashes after 2 injury-plagued seasons, any chance Franklin Perez follows suit?
Keith Law: Perez’s injuries have been more serious.

Blake: I feel kind of conflicted about my team’s choice not to sit out last night’s game. One one hand, I feel a bit disappointed they didn’t feel empowered enough to take a stand. On the other, who am I to expect them to refuse to do their job to make a statement? I guess this isn’t a question, but curious if you have any thoughts
Keith Law: I was disappointed that other Cubs and Cardinals players chose to play when Black teammates of theirs chose to sit out.

David: Hey Keith, I know it’s probably close to impossible for you to upgrade/downgrade your opinion on a player at an alternate site, especially after Britt Ghiroli’s excellent piece on how scouts aren’t allowed at those sites, but is there reason to be encouraged about Jarren Duran? Alex Speier wrote about his swing change and he seems to have unlocked power in his swing. Or is that something you would need to see a player show at a hopeful [insert state name] Fall League?
Keith Law: He has truly changed his swing, and I think it will lead to more power, but I wouldn’t treat what I have heard about it the same way I would treat information from live games.
Keith Law: He’s a better prospect now than he was six months ago. That doesn’t equate to the same kind of jump in status or ranking we might get in a normal year, where he’d get to prove it against actual pitching.

Aaron Gershoff: Can Justin Dunn (of Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano fame) be a solid starter now or does he need more time?
Keith Law: He’s averaging 91.0 on his fastball. That’s not going to get it … dunn.

Michael: When scouting short players, is there any way to project power like Altuve, Eaton, Pedroia, etc or do most scouts see those types of players as “spark plug” Eckstein type guys?
Keith Law: I’d look at their swings and their lower body strength. Pedroia’s issues were that he wasn’t that strong as a prospect – if you can find video of the September when he debuted, his body looked bad – and most scouts, myself included, thought his swing was too uphill.
Keith Law: He improved his body a ton, and he made that swing work for him with exceptional hand-eye.

Josh: With the Walker trade do you think the Mariners give Logan Gilbert a shot at a few starts or give that 6th rotation spot to the bullpen?
Keith Law: I’d give Gilbert the spot. He was pretty close to ready after last season anyway.

JT: Will MLB finish its season, or can we expect a boycott for racial justice?

I *love* this so much. My introduction to social justice was reading about the death threats mailed to Hank Aaron when I was 9 or 10. Baseball taught me to be a better, more caring person. I love that it could do so again.
Keith Law: My guess is that the wildcat strikes we’re seeing in other leagues won’t come to MLB. The league and its players as a whole are too conservative.
Keith Law: Meaning a full-season strike – I wasn’t talking about individual games.

Drew: Love the scouting articles. With respect to Triston McKenzie, you had him ranked high as 19. Can you ballpark where he’d fall if you set the rankings again? And what’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: That guy we saw on Saturday would be back in the top 20 again. He might be an ace.

Soto Popinski: Thanks for continuing to speak out during these times. I can’t say it eliminates the dread of the next few months but at least there’s not any resignation
Keith Law: We fight, or we surrender. I don’t see another choice.

Henry: You published but didn’t answer my Ian Anderson question above? Thanks.
Keith Law: I did answer the same q later – the software swallowed your question so I answered someone else’s.

cool guy: what did scouts miss about cavan biggio?
Keith Law: Nothing. This season so far is such a tiny sample that there are weird outlier results all over the place – unless you think Mike Trout is really a .333 OBP guy.

Reds Fan: How much do you buy the mechanical changes Jose Garcia has made over the past year? If you were ranking again, do you feel he would be higher or lower than 93?
Keith Law: No change. I thought 93 was appropriate, if on the optimistic side.

Robert: Adell looks far from ready for the majors, especially in the field. Would you hold him back after watching him this season to preserve his confidence, or is this just something he has to get through with no minor leagues?
Keith Law: I might start to play him more selectively to get him at bats against pitchers he might be better able to see or hit right now. He doesn’t look ready, unfortunately.

Matt: What are your thoughts on Connor Seabold?  Would developing a better breaking ball to add to FB and change allow him to become a mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: I mean, “developing a better breaking ball” is not a minor tweak. He’s a fifth starter/swingman type. I didn’t have any problem with the phillies’ end of that trade.

Jonathan: What’s wrong with Pete Alonso this season? Alternatively, was 2019 a mirage for him?
Keith Law: How about something in between? He might never hit 53 homers again – especially since the baseball seems to be a little less happy-fun than last year – but he’s not a .402 SLG guy. To return to my small-sample point above, Biggio has more homers this year than Alonso. Do we really think Biggio is the better power hitter?

Nelson: Has anybody ever had the velocity of DeGrom with his level of command?
Keith Law: Scherzer?

Steven: Who do you prefer going forward, Luis Urias or Luis Garcia (Nats)?
Keith Law: Urias.

Noah: Max Fried has been pitching like an Ace. Can he keep this level up or will he fall into a #2/3 type starter when the sample size is bigger?
Keith Law: With that stuff, athleticism, and command, I think he can be a top 20 starter in baseball for the long term.

Steven: Was Fried, Giolito and Flaherty the best high school rotation ever?
Keith Law: I can’t think of a better one.

Jameson: A few of your Athletic co-writers put together a piece on the emergence of Yaz this year as a “super star” (their words not mine). Do you share a believe in this premise or are us Giants fans still going to see a regression?
Keith Law: I do not believe he’s a super star, or a star.

Neal: Thoughts on Luis Robert from what you’ve seen thus far?
Keith Law: Pretty much what I expected – big tools, especially the power, great defense, lot of swing and miss with vulnerability inside.
Keith Law: Great player, with flaws.

Tim: Does Zack Collins have a MLB future? Seems like there is no room for him in Chicago.
Keith Law: Last guy on the bench, sure. Emergency catcher, DH/PH with patience and power, there’s some value there.

Greg: I guess I’ll ask it another way. You’ve long been the high man on Touki and Bryse Wilson. Why hasn’t Atlanta been able to get more out of them?
Keith Law: Wilson is still just 22, and he got to the majors very early. I am quite high on him. Touki has shown flashes of it, but I think he still doesn’t have the consistency to his delivery, especially his arm swing, to repeat it 80-100 times every fifth day yet. I don’t know why, exactly; is it body control, or just that his arm is so fast/loose, or something else? Newcomb you mentioned above, and I don’t think he’ll ever repeat his arm stroke enough to throw strikes. He’s so loose that there isn’t really an easy way to fix it to improve the path of his arm or how close he gets to the same release point. He’s always going to be wild, unfortunately.

Scherzers_Blue_Eye: Victor Robles’ offense is another Giolito situation, right? Just be patient?
Keith Law: I’d say yes.

Kamal: At this point is looks like the NL Rookie of the Year is Cronenworth’s to lose. Was he a legit prospect in Rays system and do you see this as sustainable?
Keith Law: That’s a ridiculous statement on a player with less than 100 PA (and with a .375 BABIP, which is clearly not sustainable). I like Cronenworth a bit, but in a normal season nobody would speak about a sample of 87 PA as if it were meaningful. Just among rookies currently playing, I’d probably bet on Bohm or even Carlson to be better the rest of this mini-season.

Morris: I get why the Giants feel they need to disassociate from Aubrey Huff. But if they want to do that, how can they justify honoring Will Clark and retiring his number? This is a well known racist from who called Chris Brown the N-word in public, never apologized (and still hasn’t), had his white manager (Roger Craig) explain his actions and racism away, and had the team quickly ship away the black players (Brown, Jeffrey Leonard) who were bothered by his bigotry. Why two different standards for two terrible people?
Keith Law: That’s a great question, and whenever they trot him out in front of the press, someone needs to ask him point-blank about it.

Nick: Dominic Smith has been outstanding this season.  If you were running the Mets, what would you do with him going into 2021?
Keith Law: If the DH is permanent in the NL, as it will be sooner or later, he should be their 1B full-time, with Alonso the DH.

Guest: I know you are always pro-player (as am I), how would you have felt (in Clev’s case) / do feel (Pleasac) about keeping them down long enough to delay FA by a year as punishment, given how egregious their behavior was?
Keith Law: I would have been fine if the team or MLB had suspended them the rest of the year for putting their entire clubhouse at risk through deliberately reckless actions. I am pro-player. I am not pro-asshole.

TP: SSS or is this the Dom Smith you have been waiting for?
Keith Law: It’s SSS, but I am at least pleased that the Smith we’re seeing matches the guy I expected him to be. He just has to do it for a longer period before I can confidently say yes, this is him.

Mac: Do you think there will be a fall league this year?
Keith Law: It sounds like it.

Brian: Maybe I read it wrong but I thought I saw an article where Fowler and Flaherty ok’d the Cardinals playing. Which if that is the case does that change your mind saying they are doing what their teammates thought was ok.
Keith Law: No, it doesn’t, especially because we don’t really know what that sounded like – or whether they felt pressured to absolve their teammates of any obligation to sit out with them.

Joe: Pretty sure I saw that the Reds broadcast of the Royals game on August 19 suddenly isn’t available on the MLB.tv archive… I wonder why?! It’s one thing to erase it but it did happen…
Keith Law: Maybe just edit out Brennaman’s slur, but leave the apology?

Cam: Should Whitley’s injury issues be concerning at this point? Doesn’t seem like he could even have a shot at the MLB for another couple years.
Keith Law: Another couple of years? If he’s really just out with a forearm strain, as the Astros have said, why couldn’t he compete for a job in February? His last eighteen months have been a hot mess but there’s also nothing here to point to him being unable to pitch in the long term.

Jim: Do you see anything that might have Jays fans optimistic in the Taijuan walker acquisition? His career numbers (although small sample size) are not that good against AL east teams.
Keith Law: I love the arm and the athleticism. For what I assume is minimal cost, he’s a great pickup. I do worry about his homer-prone tendencies and the park in Buffalo, which seems to be very favorable to LH power hitters.

Dylan: What caused the White Sox to give up Luis Basabe?
Keith Law: Been hurt a lot, body has been slowing down, and no place to play in their system.

Carson Fulmer: What happened to me?
Keith Law: Violent deliveries often have bad outcomes. I never believed he was a starter, and maybe all the time he spent trying to be one ended up reducing his odds of being an effective reliever, either through wear on his arm or the mental toll of trying to do something he couldn’t?

Uli Jon: Observation I’ve had at a sadly late point of my life.  Black friends always have literature regarding the history and figures around what it means to be black in America.  I think the problem is that whites in America do no such self-reflection, either personally or in school. Look to Germany, which kinda sorta had a horrid history but has reckoned with it on a national level.  I’m a 50ish straight while male.  My ancestors were not here until the 20th century, but I 100% have profited from the ways in which this country has continually tilted towards me.  I have to recognize my culpability and ensure it stops. Now.
Keith Law: Well said. And, as someone who reads a ton, I agree that the American canon doesn’t have much to offer the privileged class (to which I also belong) that would force us to rethink our positions and/or encourage us to actively seek and push change.

Michael: Not a boycott, withholdinig labor is a strike.
Keith Law: I believe I said that too.

Mac: Thoughts on Brady Singer?
Keith Law: I love how he competes, but his results so far haven’t been great, and that’s even with some good luck against LHB (for whom he doesn’t really have an effective weapon).

Mark: Thoughts on Julian Merryweather? He’s looked great in small busts, think he can hold up as a starter or is he more of a high leverage multi-inning reliever upside?
Keith Law: The latter. Did throw hard as a starter, but didn’t have much else to support that role.

JT: Am I wrong to think of all unwritten baseball rules as just white supremacy in action? Fernando Tatis cannot help being better than everyone. He simply is. Behold.
Keith Law: I believe unwritten rules exist to enforce traditional power structures. Ever play any of those card games (often drinking games, at least in college) where new players don’t know the rules, and the existing players get to make them up as they go along without having to tell the newbies? If you have, think of how they allowed you to arbitrarily target or favor certain friends or other players. I know that’s a frivolous example, but I think the analogy still works: The beauty of unwritten rules for the powerful is that such rules can be applied however they want, whenever they want, to whomever they want – or ignored as the enforcer chooses.
Keith Law: Also, Tatis Jr. is a fucking star and should be allowed to swing 3-0 and run like his hair’s on fire and make every highlight reel he can, because MLB is far better off when players like him and Javy Baez and Francisco Lindor and Yu Darvish and Luis Robert are doing amazing things on the field.

Brian: Can baseball erase Aubrey Huff from the record books permanently?
Keith Law: The less we pay attention to him, the sooner he’ll go away.

Kas from Fort Worth: What does Leodys need to hit to be considered a legitimate starting starting CF with the defense he brings
Keith Law: Not much, really. And I think he can get to a .340+ OBP which would make him a regular.

Cal: Is Gavin lux finally out of the dog house?
Keith Law: I assume he’ll be called up in the next few days, although I wonder where he’ll end up getting AB.

David Fletcher: What do you see as the biggest cause for the Angels failure this season? What would you do to improve the team going forward?
Keith Law: Lack of starting pitching. They did make a run at Cole and didn’t get him; that was the free agent who’d make the biggest impact on their season and playoff odds.

Amir: James Kaprelian maintained 95-97 mph during his brief MLB appearance. If he can maintain the velocity, can he become a useful bullpen arm?
Keith Law: Yes. All about health with him, I think.

Chris: Do you have issues with Boston’s side of the Workman trade? They sure didn’t get anything to even go into their system. Doesn’t seem to bode well for additional trades Bloom makes in the next few days.
Keith Law: Is anyone really giving up significant prospects in trades for rentals or relief pieces this year? You’re getting a month of the regular season, and half the league gets into the playoffs anyway, so most real contenders would likely see those additions as “nice but not essential.” And there’s still the specter of more outbreaks causing a premature end to the season.

Zach: Keith, covid has gotten me back into playing video games for the first time in a long time. I dusted off my copy of Baldur’s Gate 2 since they are finally releasing BG3 this winter. You played them back in the day, right? Any desire to play #3?
Keith Law: I played through BG, BG2, and BG2: ToB many times. It’s the best video game I’ve ever played. I would be doing myself a grave disservice if I didn’t check out BG3.

Ryan: Will Dylan Carlson develop into a DUDE?
Keith Law: Yes. I think his approach will get him there, if not this year, soon.

Michael: DeGrom was a 9th rounder out of Stetson. Is baseball really that much of a late bloomer sport that a guy picked in an organizational round can become one of the best pitchers ever?  Seems to happen a lot
Keith Law: Not quite an organizational round, although you are correct that the expected value of a 9th round pick is nearly zero. Degrom is an unusual case, though; he was a converted position player who’d already had TJ.
Keith Law: I see him as a reason to keep the draft to at least 12-15 rounds, and why teams that choose to keep their scouts (as opposed to all the firings and furloughs, so billionaire owners can boost their profits for 2020 by a rounding error) will have a real advantage going forward.

JR: In general, are you enjoying the season so far? I thought having sports back would be a nice diversion (I know you’re a baseball only guy, but I enjoy the various leagues), but it just hasn’t been for me. I’m guessing it’s a mix of getting used to not having sports in my life + even though they’re back, they don’t feel the same. Watching with no fans in the stands, social distancing, etc. (which is the right thing to do) makes it a constant reminder of how fucked up things remain instead of the diversion we hoped sports would be, IMO.
Keith Law: I am enjoying it, but I went into the season knowing what it was, and figuring that whatever we got from MLB this year was a bonus.

Frank N.: When will you admit the Biggio take was just plain bad? You’re very quick to let everyone know the wins of your evals, but quiet on what you missed on…and missed on big time.
Keith Law: I have posted a column every year listing players I missed on for at least six years now, so that’s just some bullshit. And no, I didn’t miss on Biggio. He can’t hit major-league fastballs, and even during this tiny sample where he’s produced that’s held true.

Jason: Is there any specific player that you can think of that really proved you wrong (you didnt think much of them and they have become a star)
Keith Law: Quite a few. Goldschmidt is probably the biggest example, and knowing I missed on him made me more willing to reconsider Rhys Hoskins (a fourth-rounder, RHB, 1B only, not a great body, was old for low A) but the swing worked and his approach was pretty good.
Keith Law: I’m actually struggling because it’s a long list of guys who really changed something about themselves where I either didn’t acknowledge the possibility of the change, or vastly underestimated the probability of the change. I never thought Shane Bieber would add at least a full grade of FB velocity. Kolten Wong worked his way to be a much better defender than I thought he’d ever be. I dinged Austin Riley on his bat speed and poor defense, but he cleaned up his body and worked hard to become maybe a 60 defender at third. Marcus Semien has become a completely different player than he was at Cal or even in the White Sox’s system.
Keith Law: Oh, wait, I’m quiet on guys I missed on. Scratch all that.

Stu: Gary Cohen is great every night,  but last night he was really good talking about BLM.
Keith Law: He is really great at his job because he seems so diligent. I’m actively disappointed when Ron or Keith make a bad point (often because they fall back on conventional wisdom) and it derails the way the three of them generally work. They might be the best booth in the business.

Justi: Why won’t MLB push guys like Tatis, Soto & Acuna more? is it because they’re afraid of offending the guys who don’t watch football anymore because two players kneeled four years ago? a Padres-White Sox WS seems to be something that could “save” the sport.
Keith Law: Those three players have something in common…

Santaspirt: Bohm looks like a legit hitter. But his defense has been shaky. Understanding the small sample caveat, he looked overmatched on anything hit hard to 3rd base. Is that indicative of his defensive potential, something he will eventually even out, or just random noise from the SSS?
Keith Law: His defense has looked awful. You’re being kind. Some of it is that you see harder contact more frequently in the majors than in AA or below, where he played before. But I’m wondering if his reactions aren’t quick enough for the position. Maybe he goes to 1B and Rhys to DH.

Luke: Best board game of 2020 so far and where would it rank in your top 100 if you had to slot it in somewhere?
Keith Law: I am going to bet that the best game of 2020 so far is either in my to-play queue or on its way to me. Sonora is the best I’ve played so far, but I know of a few that I’m pretty sure will beat it in the end.

Foolsgold: Dustin May has out of the world stuff, but not translating to K/9 (6.2),  Should i be worry?
Keith Law: Tiny sample. And he’s young.

Jim: So Washington optioned Kieboom “to give him lots of AB”.  Do you think it’s a matter of him being rushed, or is his hit tool just not as good as they thought it was?
Keith Law: I don’t think he was rushed.

Johnny Lee: Bobby Witt Jr. or Austin Martin?
Keith Law: Martin for me. I have more confidence in his hit tool.

addoeh: Marty Brennaman once called the President of Marshall University a “q***r”.  Homophobia runs in the family.
Keith Law: Pretty good argument against nepotism hires.

27: Keith, How could anyone possibly say they want four more years of this? It’s exhausting, embarrassing, and sad.
Keith Law: Nothing will be more exhausting and depressing than watching ~50-60 million Americans vote for four more years of this. Even if Biden wins, it’s a reminder that a huge portion of the electorate saw this Administration and said, “Please, sir, may I have some more?”

Joe in Quincy: Will Schillings connection to Bannon impact his hall chances? Or has that ship sailed due to his FAR right outlook?
Keith Law: I think he’s getting in this year.

Tom: you mentioned yu, boy hes been fun to watch
Keith Law: This is my perception, but I feel like the baseball world thinks he’s been a disappointment. He hasn’t. When healthy he’s been anywhere from an above-average starter to top 5-10 in his league.

Nelson: What is your take on Otani’s offense going forward? I think I remember you being somewhat down on his offensive potential when he first came to MLB, but, this year not withstanding, he’s seemed to have a decent outcome thus far. Has he surpassed your expectations?
Keith Law: I’ve thought that the more he played as a hitter, the more he’d get a bit exposed – the power is absolutely real, but the way his bat works he’s pretty vulnerable in, and if you can keep him from getting his arms extended you can probably keep him in the ballpark. I don’t think 2020 is indicative of anything but I would be surprised if he repeated 2018-19 while playing full-time, even just as a DH.

Snowy: What do you think about the job Farhan Zaidi has done so far with the Giants? Love the way he has found viable mlb contributors seemingly out of nowhere
Keith Law: Agreed and I like his approach of giving castoffs opportunities rather than trotting out veterans about whom we already know.

Aaron: Keith, I promise this isn’t a ‘gotcha’ question: Has your opinion changed on Dinelson Lamet? Seems your opinion was that he’d be an unbelievable reliever but his potential as a starter was limited by platoon splits. I don’t think he’s really developed that third pitch you wanted for him, but man he’s been awesome this season. Thoughts?
Keith Law: He’s looked incredible, and he’s done so without a good changeup for LHB – he actually has a reverse split this year, including a .159 BABIP vs lefties, which all seems unsustainable to me, but the flip side is he’s pounding the zone with two plus pitches and if he keeps crushing RHB and can just keep lefties from killing him he’ll be a really good starter anyway.
Keith Law: Small sample caveats apply.
Keith Law: well that’s terrible.

addoeh: Are you back on the Islanders bandwagon?  Granted, they are very defensive and nothing like Bossy, Trots, and Potvin.
Keith Law: I had no idea they were in the playoffs until my sister told me the other day.

Tom C: I remember when Mike Cameron had a chance for his 5th HR in the game and got piped a 2-0 fastball. But he took it and explained later he didn’t think it would be right to swing there. I remember thinking “Dude how many chances in your life will you have to hit 5 HRs?”
Keith Law: Agree. And nobody remembers him taking a 2-0 fastball.

AL: Is Andres Gimenez a dude or a backup type ?
Keith Law: I could see him maybe ending up a regular but not a star.

Brian: If there’s an Arizona Fall League in 2020, do you think teams will send more of their high caliber prospects just to get some at-bats and innings?
Keith Law: Yes. And then I’ll have to make a serious decision on whether it’s safe for me to fly there, because from a scouting perspective it would be invaluable.

Frank N.: Can’t hit FBs? He’s got a career 136 wRC+ against them….be better than that. Admit you’re wrong about it.
Keith Law: Small samples aside, he doesn’t hit velocity. That’s not the same thing.

Dave: Any new kitchen gadgets that are going to end up on your annual list?
Keith Law: I can’t think of anything new this year, even with more cooking than usual (because of no travel). I did get a spiralizer attachment for the KitchenAid but haven’t had a chance to try it yet.

Paul: Pending sale aside…am I wrong in thinking that the Mets are closer to a rebuild than a contender? The upper levels of the farm system or pretty bare now. .The pitching is a mess and the team is pretty weak up the middle.
Keith Law: I think their window may have closed most of the way this year. A healthy roster would have been very competitive in a full 2020 though.

Ben: Keith, I disagree with your take on unwritten rules.  In drinking games it’s done to maintain dominance and “win” the game.  In baseball, they’re all about basic sportsmanship and usually protect the loser.  Nobody likes to get beat and then have it rubbed in their face.  It only seems like a racial issue because leagues from other countries don’t have similar tradition, so when they come to the US they get in trouble.  A lot of people got pissed when Bret Boone (apologize if it was another Boone) was doing bat flips too, and he’s a white MLB “legacy” player.
Keith Law: I remember Bret Boone’s bat flips and I hated him for it. I thought it was incredibly obnoxious, especially for a player whose power appeared rather suddenly. But I do not remember anywhere near the days-on-end conversations about his bat flips (or more of a bat drop, I think) like those we’ve had over Tatis or Acuna or Baez.

Michael: This election kind of feels like an episode of The Good Place.  The Bad Place people lie and cheat and project and since they don’t care, nothing happens. The Dems had to apologize for two soldiers showing up in a video in American Samoa, but then the GOP trots out active duty soldiers next to the President and it’s nothing.  I hate it here.
Keith Law: That’s a good analogy. We are in the Bad Place. And I don’t like our odds of getting out.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thank you all for your questions and for reading. Stay safe, wear your masks, and make sure you’re registered to vote.

Klawchat 7/31/20.

I’ve got two scouting blogs up for subscribers to the Athletic, one today and one from Tuesday, covering rookies and young players of note.

Keith Law: You’ve got that pure feel, such good responses. Klawchat.

John: Man, Bieber’s command looks really strong.  How did you see him as a prospect?
Keith Law: I saw him as a back-end starter because he was more 88-91. His velocity kept creeping up, which I absolutely did not see coming, so now he’ll sit 94 and his secondary stuff has improved as well. He’s at least a legit #2 starter. I think over time he’ll give up a few too many home runs to be an ace, but I could be wrong again.

Brett J: Jp Crawford has been noticeably better in his small sample size this year. Are you seeing anything that shows his improvements might stick?
Keith Law: I’d say this is more a continuation of what we saw from him last year.

Mike: Just wanted to say the Scouting Notebook pieces you’ve been running on The Athletic have been stellar. Really looking forward to that series for the next week that baseball will be around.
Keith Law: Thank you. The response to the first one was so good that it made doing a second one an easy call. Now I am a bit stuck as we wait for some more debuts, but if we get another week of games, I’ll have enough guys to discuss. Could always look at which players seem noticeably different from last year too.

Andrew: What is the point of the Mariners carrying 2 actual outfielders while Kelenic sits idle in Tacoma? Shouldn’t they just see what he can do against Major League talent?
Keith Law: At this point, no. They’ve pushed off his free agency by a year already.

Jibraun: In his newsletter today, Joe Sheehan mentioned that MLB’s K rate is rising again this year. What rule changes do you think should be instituted to lower K rates?
Keith Law: Raise the bottom of the strike zone. I also think the automated strike zone would help too.

Jebediah: Since you’re a grump with no emotion for baseball, can you just calculate the teams with the highest WAR so we can award the World Series trophy to them?
Keith Law: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Arnold: Did Giants make right choice to not put Joey Bart on roster? On one hand, Posey opting out created space for him and he looks to be major league ready as a hitter. On the other hand, who knows if MLB will make it through the shortened season and Giants aren’t contenders so why waste a year of salary control.
Keith Law: This is the one variable that might stop teams from recalling prospects now – what if the season ends in a few days, and you called up a guy to play three games only to have him get most of a year of service, and maybe put him on the 40-man too soon? I hate that that’s a consideration, but it’s real.
Keith Law: It’s like when the White Sox recalled Michael Kopech a few years ago, and he made two starts before blowing out his elbow. He got a year-plus of service out of that.

Robert: What would it take for the MLB to admit failure and call the season? Half the league not being able to play?
Keith Law: I bet a player in the hospital in serious condition would do it.
Keith Law: Or another Marlins-level outbreak.

AJ: Who were better prospects as amateurs, Cole and Bauer at UCLA or Rocket and Leiter at Vandy?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen the Vandy boys in college, but I think Cole and Bauer.

Deke: Even if we get anything approximating the rest of the 2020 season, it’s still basically going to be a wash. So my question is: Should we be at all optimistic for NEXT YEAR’s MLB season? It seems like there’s every chance this is comparably bad then.
Keith Law: We shouldn’t be optimistic about anything as long as the hoaxers are in power. We should have had a national shutdown for 6 weeks in the spring. Instead we have the worst situation of any developed country, even worse than many developing countries, out of every place that’s been hit with the pandemic. How anyone can see this and not immediately blame the Administration is beyond me.

Kevin W: What would you do with ohtani?  Keep status quo?  Hitter only?  Pitcher only?
Keith Law: I’d pick one. Still prefer him on the mound but if he hasn’t really come back from TJ yet then maybe you let him hit only and have him throw on the side?

Cubs: Is it way to early to call up someone you just drafted?
Keith Law: In theory, now. In this environment, probably.

Patty O’Furniture: Max Fried looked the best he’s ever looked last night!  Not ready to call him an ace or anything, but damn.  He pitched like a grown man
Keith Law: Feeling good about all the years I kept him as a top 50ish prospect. Great athlete, smart kid, just needed time.

Kevin W: Has any player you have scouted ever had all 5 tools rated above 50?
Keith Law: I can’t think of one. Many guys have the power-run-glove-arm tools. Few also have the hit tool.

addoeh: If a player getting seriously ill from COVID nor having half a team testing positive have stopped the season, nothing short of a player dying is going to.
Keith Law: This is also possible.

Kevin W: How are you going to handle school this year with your daughter?
Keith Law: We’re going to do what her school offers, which I believe will be hybrid (a few days in school, a few remote).

Robbie: Were you impressed at all/ have an opinion on the way William Contreras handled his surprise early debut?
Keith Law: No opinion. Minuscule sample. I saw him get overwhelmed in his last game, unfortunately.

Greg: Should Dylan Carlson be playing every day instead of Billy Hamilton 2.0 (Bader)? If so, what kind of numbers would you expect from him in a full season?
Keith Law: I think so. .350+ OBP this year which would be a big help.

Bob: Tatis seems to be worth the $27m it took to pay off Shields.
Keith Law: Yes, yes he does.

Greg: What way do you prefer to cook zucchini  or yellow squash
Keith Law: Fritters! I just made zucchini/corn fritters the other day. Recipe was on Serious Eats.

John: Seems like its impossible to find a reasonable argument with non-maskers, how did our country fall so far, is it really too much to ask to look out for others for 2-3 months?
Keith Law: Masks, evolution, vaccines … so much of this is misguided “liberty” talk, and often is really about people clinging to a vision of yesteryear.
Keith Law: That includes white power, religion, and patriarchy.

Luis: just wanted to congratulate you on the amazing book. I’m at chapter 4 at the moment and waiting for the day to end to dig into ch5! Enjoy your weekend!
Keith Law: Thank you! Glad you’re enjoying it.

addoeh: 2020 is drunk.  The President is promoting a doctor who believes in demon semen.
Keith Law: She’s a massive, massive quack. This is like the President promoting Gwyneth Paltrow or Andrew Wakefield or Uri Geller as authorities on science and medicine.

Mike: Can Tony Gonsolin be a #2 starter? Do you see him seizing a rotation spot this year from Stripling or Wood, if he’s ever healthy?
Keith Law: I like him more than those two guys, but thought he was more of a fourth starter or an ace in a swingman role. Wouldn’t rule him out from a higher ceiling given how far he came just in his first year in pro ball when he was pitching full time.

Benji: I really don’t like Espn anymore
Keith Law: You should hear what ESPN says about you.

Buck: With his changeup looking so good can B Woodruff become a legit ace?
Keith Law: Above league-average starter.

Matt: Keep seeing the White Sox are playing around with Vaughn at 3rd base – assume the chances of him actually being able to play there are ~0%, right?
Keith Law: I think so. Same for Torkelson. Third basemen are usually a lot more agile than those guys.

Mike: Could Dustin May end up starting a playoff game this season?
Keith Law: Why not?

Josh: Might the league be better off pausing the season, and setting up a “bubble” in Southern California, where they can easily play into November while (probably) leaving time to rest for next season?
Keith Law: I suppose we could see if the NBA bubble works, although MLB has more than twice the player count.

Jack: Nick Madrigal making his MLB debut tonight. Do you think he immediately becomes the non-pitcher with the least present power in the big leagues?
Keith Law: It’d be a close competition between him, Leury Garcia, and David Fletcher, I think. Billy Hamilton would win this but he’s not in the majors.

Tom: do you believe padres catcher mejia can be an above average contributor offensively?
Keith Law: He was on my breakouts list last week, so clearly I do.

TC: How much of Edwin Diaz’s struggles are mental vs mechanical? He looked fine in his first two outings up until giving up the home run to Ozuna & last night he had zero command & no feel for a slider.
Keith Law: I think the altered baseball last year really hurt him. His slider went poof when the baseball changed.

Chris P: Hey KLaw, are you going to be able to get any information on the secondary sites for each team? I’m wondering if we’re able to get any information on prospects that aren’t in the show this season.
Keith Law: I expect to get some information, filtered through team sources though, after a few weeks.

Pat D: I’ve been desperate to get this question answered by multiple people.  Shouldn’t the MLBPA fire Tony Clark at the very least get him a MUCH better negotiating partner for the next CBA?  It seems like his track record is pretty terrible so far with these negotiations.
Keith Law: I think it’s more about who’s advising him, and whether he even has final say over negotiations. I’ve heard, anecdotally, that he’s been overruled by people around him, which – if true, and I want to be extremely clear that this is unverified – would be the worst position for a leader.

TC: Is it fair to say the only true way we can have a safe season is if we have a vaccine widely available? Should MLB be concentrating on being able to safely open 2021 spring training?
Keith Law: Other countries have limited the virus’ spread without a vaccine. They locked down nationally, enforced it, and got compliance from the populations. We had a piecemeal approach, hoaxers and deniers in the White House, and mouthbreathers in the streets claiming masks were tyranny (but abducting protesters in unmarked vans and calling for delaying an election isn’t?).

Nate: Will you be able to do a prospect list this offseason? With no minor league games and only the opinions of team officials as to what is happening at their satellite camps, it seems like there just wouldn’t be enough unbiased info to make the process legitimate this year.
Keith Law: Sure, it just won’t change as much year over year as it usually does.

Guest: Does it seem odd to you that Markakis saw how things are going and now has decided to play?
Keith Law: Yes, although maybe he thinks he’ll play for a few weeks, the season will be cancelled, and he’ll at least go back into free agency with some playing time?

Lee: Has Trump officially killed the Republican party?   How the hell did any sane person ever vote for this?
Keith Law: If he loses in November, which I am not willing to assume just yet, the party will quickly move to disavow him, and individual politicians will rewrite history to say they never really supported him. It is on us to stop them from doing so.

Dave: You prefer the Vetri Neopolitan dough to Reinhart? I’ve gotten decent results with Reinhart, but it’s so sticky it’s hard to handle unless I keep it cold, which is suboptimal.
Keith Law: Different doughs for different temperatures. I use Vetri’s Neapolitan for my outdoor oven, which gets to 800+. Reinhart’s is my go-to for indoors, where I set the oven at 500.

Another Matt: What are you missing most about having no minor league season this year?
Keith Law: All of it. Going to games to scout, and to see scout friends, and watching stuff online, and following players through box scores, and talking to scouts and player development people about players.

Leprekhan: Long term Soroka or Fried?
Keith Law: I feel better about Fried staying healthy over the long term than Soroka. Both are probably #2 starters.

Ethan: Any suggestions for Carcassonne expansion packs? Already have hills and sheep and traders and builders. Thanks!
Keith Law: I like Inns & Cathedrals. Haven’t tried Hills & Sheep.

Todd Boss: I know he’s not a major prospect, but Nats farmhand Tres Barrera (who was recently hit with an 80game PED suspension) filed a counter suit.  In the complaint he says he tested positive for “10 picograms” of DHCMT.  In mass units, a picogram is equal to 0.000000000001 of a gram.

If this is true, is this just a patently ridiculous suspension?  Is a MLB player actually being suspended without pay for 80 games for ingesting less than a millionth of a gram of a performance enhancing substance?
Keith Law: I’m probably out of my league answering this, but I think the issue is that you wouldn’t have that in your system at all unless you’d ingested it, because it’s synthetic.

Adam Trask: Nick Madrigal gets the call. You see real value there or replacement level?
Keith Law: More than replacement level. Maybe an average regular if he can keep his average up. My concern remains his inability to make hard contact, with zero power.

Todd Boss: So are you in a Sinclair market that’s being forced to show Plandemic?  Are you setting your DVR?
Keith Law: I am not. I think we’re an hour-plus from their nearest affiliate.

Danny: Simple question and not at all wishcasting- what are the odds that Trump is indicted at some point post-presidency (i.e. election fraud, tax fraud, money laundering, improper profiteering from office?)
Keith Law: I hope that whoever succeeds him, whenever it happens, holds him and his cronies (and his children) accountable for any crimes they’ve committed, rather than pardoning them and saying we need to move forward or turn the page. The latter would simply encourage the next set of grifters who come along.

Adam Trask: We’ve learned JK Rowling is a bigot. I was looking forward to reading the Potter books to my baby girl. Should I still?
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: There is a lot of good in those books, even though their author has revealed herself to be a TERF.

Don: How did we get brainwashed as a country to prefer chicken breasts over chicken thighs?
Keith Law: Our national fat phobia, along with bad advice from some quarters of the federal health establishment.

David: Keith, do you think Jeff Lunhow will work in an MLB front office again?
Keith Law: My guess is no.

Eric: Sadly, my father unexpectedly passed. Do you have any tips for grief or any good books to rec? It’s…hard.
Keith Law: I’m so sorry for your loss. I don’t have a book to recommend, but would certainly suggest talking to a therapist or psychologist, even if it’s just for a few sessions.

Robbie: He’s already 29, so clearly he’s not a prospect, but what’s your opinion of Yaz. He seems to have a great approach and has continued to hit the ball hard to start the season
Keith Law: Extra outfielder at best.

Pat D: Is there any movie that’s SUPPOSED to come out this year that would get you into a theater?  I’m still very determined to see Tenet in IMAX.
Keith Law: No, I’ll wait to see them all at home.

Drew: If you saw an anti-mask tirade in real life like we’re seeing all over the news, would you step in? I keep picturing myself wanting to get involved but also not wanting to be in the cloud of a covidiots screaming and spittle.But my 2020 rage could use a good screaming.
Keith Law: I think I would. I haven’t told anyone to put a mask on, even though I’ve seen people without them, or “wearing” them off their noses and mouths.
Keith Law: If they’re giving an employee a hard time, though, that employee would probably benefit from other customers voicing support. I think.

Greg: Why does there seem to be a very local contingent of fans who are seemingly convinced that sports media are driving some kind of agenda to get sports cancelled? Just general distrust of media of any kind? If the fans are for something, that means the media must be against it? Or just a more widespread dumbing of America?
Keith Law: Distrust of media, and wishful thinking. The funny part is that they think we have some power to affect the outcome.

Arnold: Today’s reports that national pandemic plan was tossed in trash by Jared because COVID-19 was hurting blue cities/states more is both least surprising and most frightening thing yet from this administration.
Keith Law: And should make more people mad … but it won’t.

Brett: Thank you for your taking time to do this today. Kris Bubic makes his big league debut tonight. Have you seen him live, and if so, what did you like/dislike? What’s your ceiling on him long term?
Keith Law: Low ceiling but command/changeup guy who should succeed for a while as a back-end starter.

Don: Leury Garcia is secretly a yoked muscle hamster. Jacked two dongs from both sides of the plate in the opener
Keith Law: ISO under .100 last year. He’s strong for his size, but that size is awfully close to me.

Whodini: What was your favorite song from that Eurovision Song Contest movie?
Keith Law: No interest, sorry.

addoeh: How would you describe yourself when you’ve had a couple adult beverages?  Happy, huggy, sleepy, loud, sings a lot, dances a lot, belligerent, wordy?
Keith Law: I’m more voluble, and I’m told I’m a funny drunk.

Chris: Given his crazy stuff, why has Dustin May struck out less than a batter an inning in his minor-league career? Do you think he ever wins a Cy Young?
Keith Law: He does, or should, get a lot of bad contact.

Guest: Ha the Socialist agenda officially killed the Democratic party? How the hell could any same person ever vote for this?
Keith Law: Please go read any actual history or economics book about what “socialist” means.

Ridley: So, I hear more than a few politicians saying that they’re not going to extend/increase unemployment because they don’t want people to make more money than if they were at work.

Isn’t that the point? Don’t we want to incentivize people to stay at home, avoid spreading the disease, and be safe?
Keith Law: Painting the poor as lazy has been a popular pastime for both parties, especially the GOP, for at least 75 years.

Craig: MLBPA has a say in how the draft is run because draft pick compensation is tied to free agency. Why don’t the owners get rid of free agency compensation so they can do whatever they want with the draft?
Keith Law: The union doesn’t want to give up that say, and they’d have to give that.

Chris P: Vladdy Jr seems to still be hitting mostly groundballs and has only 1 homer going back to last August. Are you noticing anything different from him or his approach that would give you pause? I know he was on your breakout list this year and I still think he’s going to be a star…but I’d be lying if I wasn’t a little concerned.
Keith Law: It’s been a week. Even with the high GB rate last year he had a 105 wRC+, because he hits the ball hard. Everyone I’ve asked who’s spent time around him thinks he’s such a smart hitter he’ll get to driving the ball more. Also, he’s just 21, way too soon to be concerned. He’d be a junior in college right now.

Sal: Earlier you said to raise the bottom of the strike zone to deal with the rise in Ks. Is that suggestion for a hard rule change or for umps being less generous with the low strike?
Keith Law: A hard rule change.

Jonny: “individuals with a cervix” by CNN today.   At some point this becomes Orwellian speech, no?
Keith Law: Please go read 1984 if you’re going to allude to it.

xxx(yyy): do you listen to any podcasts? have any recs for non-baseball related ones?
Keith Law: Grierson & Leitch, The Hidden Brain, BBC’s The Inquiry. I don’t have time to get through any more right now with no car time.

Sal: One last one….can you give Mets fans *any* reason not to start twitching when they hear or read the name “Kelenic”?
Keith Law: No, sorry. You should be permanently angry over BVW just giving him away.

Frank: The Giants traded for Zach Cozart and released him before the season was shorted so they owe him the money for this contract under the 2020 season.  Since he was released before the new agreement and 60 game schedule, do they owe him the full amount of his contract or the agreed upon prorata amount?  If its the later, makes this trade even better for the Giants.
Keith Law: Great question. I assume pro rata but I do not know for sure.

Andrew: If MLB created a “Utility Man of the Year Award” (think: NBA 6th Man of the Year), who would you name it after?
Keith Law: Tony Phillips.

addoeh: For Eric, I lost my dad two weeks after he was diagnosed with cancer.  Talk to a therapist, talk to friends.  For me, it was time that also helped.
Keith Law: Thank you.

Samsonite: I wouldn’t normally recommend this kind of thing but this year is different – you should watch that Eurovision Song Context movie. Is it dumb? Very much so. Is it good? Well, I guess it’s not. But it made me happy for a couple of hours and I’ve had some really terrible songs in my head for a week.
Keith Law: It’s not even a style of movie I like. There are still so many movies out there I want to watch and don’t have time to see – plus a billion TV shows, although I’ve finally started watching Stranger Things – that I can’t see spending time on something I’m so unlikely to enjoy.
Keith Law: ok, apparently Cozart gets the full salary because he was released before the season.

That Guy in Detroit: The U.S. might benefit from the presence of an actual “socialist” party — and ranked choice voting to give it, and others, an actual shot
Keith Law: The presence of one, yes. I don’t think I’d like to live anywhere with a true socialist party in power.

Ken: Let me rephrase the question. Has the policies of the Democratic Party made it impossible for them to win a Presidential election?
Keith Law: Their candidate got 3 million more votes than her opponent last time, so I am pretty sure your questions reflect more about your desires than they do any political reality.

xxx(yyy): who would you rather have for the next 5 years as a team cornerstone – Vladito or Joey Gallo?
Keith Law: Vlad.

Mickey: hey Keith – loved the book, of course. Are you less active on twitter these days or am I just missing your tweets (or mis-remembering you as being more active in previous years)?
Keith Law: Less active. It just doesn’t pay to have discussions on there, let alone to argue with anyone. Credit to Twitter for finally booting David Duke, but the site is still overrun by bots, racists, science deniers, and just general assholes.
Keith Law: People will say *anything* if they don’t have to put their names on it.

Henry: Isn’t the entire 2020 season just a small sample size? I’m not sure if we can count anyone’s performance this season seriously.
Keith Law: I tried to make a similar point at the top of my predictions column. Sixty games is less than half a season. It would get us to about June 10th in a regular year.

JJ: The Democrats’ candidate has won the popular vote in six of the last seven elections.  It’s not their policies that are keeping them from the White House …
Keith Law: It’s the electoral college, and maybe some gerrymandering and voter suppression.

Patty O’Furniture: Thoughts on Mike Foltynewicz?
Keith Law: Not sure where his velocity went, but he might be a candidate to take eight months off to try to regain strength, or let whatever’s gone awry heal up, and try again in February or March.

Jackie: Giving a 12 year contract to any player is just insane, right?  Mookie might be a great player now, but the vast majority of major leaguers don’t last nearly that long.  If the Dodgers employ an actuary, he probably pulled out all his hair.
Keith Law: It’s a luxury tax thing. You spread out the payments over more years to reduce the AAV and thus reduce the hit to your payroll for LT purposes.
Keith Law: Nobody thinks he and Harper and Trout will still be $30MM+ players at age 40. It’s just accounting.

Colin: Don’t you think Yaz as an “extra OF at best” is a bit harsh? He hit last year at a solid OF level already. After reading MVP machine, I feel more open to late bloomers, myself. Especially when I didn’t know what was not happening for the player in their early-mid 20s
Keith Law: No, it’s right. I’d go further: without the Happy Fun Ball, he wouldn’t even be that. I’m sorry that the .556 BABIP he has so far this year hasn’t changed my view.

Greg: I don’t like that there is a world series attached to this. Can we just call this a beefed up spring training. I’d be happy with that.
Keith Law: At this point, I’m happy with every day of games we get, and not looking any further.
Keith Law: I need to wrap this up a bit early and will be offline most of the weekend, so I won’t have a links post up Saturday either. Thank you all for reading and for all of your questions. Please stay safe and wear your masks.