The dish

Starting at 1 pm ET. My top 100 prospects rankings are now up for ESPN+ subscribers. Farm systems rankings and individual team reports run next week.

Keith Law: I got the night on my side. Klawchat.

Connick: Not an ESPN+ subscriber, but a Dodgers fan itching to know if we have anyone on your list who might help the big club this year…pretty please?
Keith Law: ESPN+ is pretty inexpensive. You’ll get my entire prospect rankings, which is some ridiculous amount of content (I think it’s going to cross 40,000 words, which would make it half as long as my book), for $5/month.

Oriole fans : Your thoughts on Y Diaz. who we acquired from the Dodgers?
Keith Law: Average regular without ceiling. Don’t think he stays in center. Probably goes to right, hits for average with 15-18 bombs, solid OBP.

NIcholas: Nico Hoerner had about as good a pro debut as a prospect can have, controlling the strike zone and just mashing. How do you see his bat profiling in the majors? Is he like a .280/.360/.460 kind of guy?
Keith Law: I had to look this up because I couldn’t figure out what you were talking about. He played 14 games this summer. I’d be surprised if he had as much power as you seem to be forecasting.

Steve: Hi Keith, thanks for the list as always, one of my favorite reads of the year. Any thoughts on Emilio Vargas out of ARI? Seems to have blown up last year and has a shot to be in the bigs this year if things go well — could he be a 3/4?
Keith Law: It’s average stuff with deception and extension … those guys do sometimes turn into fourth starters but have a narrower margin for error.

John : Your thoughts on Brady Singer KC P. ? Daniel Lynch is now KC’s best pitching prospect ?
Keith Law: Yes, Lynch is their best pitching prospect. If they redid the draft today, he’d go in the top 10. I have, and have always had, big concerns on Singer’s delivery, both for injury risk and for his ability to get lefties out (command to glove side + lack of a viable CH).

Melo: The Pollock deal feels Ellsbury-ish, though obviously with less financial baggage. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I do not.

Tiana: Is there a regular Keith Law podcast in our futures?
Keith Law: That’s still a long-term plan but ESPN is not supportive.

Art: What’s your take on Mountcastle? Was he much of a consideration for top 100, and are there concerns other than defense/position?
Keith Law: Where does he play? I know MLB had him on the back of their 100, which I can support, but putting him higher would be absurd. He really has no position and hasn’t shown reason to anticipate high OBPs. That said, he can hit, and he’s going to get to some power as he fills out.

Brendan McKay: Does Tampa call me up this summer and let me pitch only ? Or wait?
Keith Law: I think they’ll still use him two ways this year which would imply he doesn’t pitch in the majors.

NY Mets fan : Are we going to regret trading Kelenic in three years ?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jackass Penguin: Giants need to draft a bat or arm at #10 this year?
Keith Law: I mean, if there’s a third option out there, I’d love to hear about it.

AA: Gohara had a rough year – personally and professionally. How far has he fallen out of the top 100?
Keith Law: He’s no longer eligible.

Mike : Would you trade a top 50 player for a proven major leaguer? Top 100 player? Or would you want to build through the draft?
Keith Law: Depends on what you’re getting – how proven, how good, how expensive, how many years of control – and where your team is right now.

Phillies Prospects: Hi Keith – great job on the prospect list – thank you for the chat – Hasely, Bohm, Medina the next 3 Phillies prospects? I know they didn’t just miss from reading ESPN+ but top 200?
Keith Law: Those aren’t the next three, no. Phillies org list runs next week.
Keith Law: Haseley looked bad last year.

Bilal: The Angels have been the picture of mediocrity for the better part of the past decade, despite deep pockets and a large market. Does it start with Arte Moreno?
Keith Law: They’re still recovering a bit from years of gutting the system and the bad contracts given to Hamilton, Wilson, Pujols.

Justin R: How close were Mickey Moniak, Blake Rutherford, or Corey Ray to the top 100?
Keith Law: Not at all.

Justin Y: Trammell looked so good in the Futures Game, why do you think he didn’t have that great a year overall?
Keith Law: He didn’t? Also there’s no way you’re not the same Justin.

Bilal: who’s getting the bulk of the starts behind the plate for the Dodgers by the All-Star break: Barnes, Smith or Ruiz?
Keith Law: Smith.

Kyle KS: Non-prospect question: Do you think more players will sign pre-free agency deals now with the current free agent market not looking like it rewards players appropriately?
Keith Law: I don’t see teams offering those deals as much right now.

CH: Vientos at 60 was a pleasant surprise for Mets fans. Thoughts on where he could/should end the season if he continues to progress?
Keith Law: High-A would be a great outcome. I think Mets fans may hear more about other prospects, so Vientos’ progress wasn’t as readily apparent, but that’s why I’m here.

CH: Are Anthony Kay or David Peterson top 150 guys?
Keith Law: Peterson for sure. Kay I don’t know. I truly don’t rank past ~110.

Steve: Hi Keith, do you think Luis Rengifo’s a plausible long term answer at 2B for LAAoA?
Keith Law: Yes.

David: Here in suburban Portland where everyone is on measles outbreak alert. Sure seems like the world is going backward in every respect. Antivax is child abuse.
Keith Law: Call your state reps – wherever you live – and ask them to eliminate nonmedical exemptions from mandatory vaccination requirements. We tightened them once in Delaware (because I called my state rep and asked for his help) and we’re going to push to tighten them further. Two states ban nonmedical exemptions entirely. The number should be 50.

Darren: What are you thoughts on Aramis Ademan? Was he hurt all year?
Keith Law: Looked awful when he played, totally overmatched at that level.

Darren: What have you heard on James Kaprelian’s return to health. Where do you think Oakland has him start the year, high A?
Keith Law: Supposed to be ready to roll for spring training. Threw in instructs but velocity wasn’t back yet.

Adam D.: With Bart, Luciano, Ramos, Canario and a top-10 pick this year, could you see the Giants jumping up into the top-20 systems by this time next year, or still too shallow even if those guys take significant strides forward in 2019?
Keith Law: I doubt it. I’m less high on Bart or Ramos than you might think from their draft positions.

J5: Ethan Hankins was once considered a 1.1 draft candidate but suffered what was once thought of as a shoulder injury but it turned out to be muscular Word is he fully recovered. Are you still bullish on him? Is he a top 100 guy without the injury?
Keith Law: Delivery questions remain. Stuff wasn’t good when he returned.

Jonathan: Not a question but I love the “Kal Daniels” name drop. I forgot all about him! Man, what a talent.
Keith Law: Personal favorite of mine.

Ben: Keith, really enjoying the new prospect content thus far. How far off was Issac Parades from your list? What are you thoughts on him in general?
Keith Law: Not a consideration.

Kyle: I’ll join in the group of at least 50+ people who are likely to ask you this, would Kyler Murray have had consideration for your Top 100 if he was giving up football?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. This isn’t a ranking of fame. Guy has barely played baseball in the last 3+ years.

YoYoYo: The Rangers are supposedly rebuilding, but have a bad farm system with just a couple of prospects barely making your top 100. Shouldn’t they have made more progress by now? And given the Padres have 10 top 100 prospects, wouldn’t Texas have been better off making A.J. Preller the g.m. and firing Jon Daniels rather than letting Preller go to San Diego?
Keith Law: Yo, yoyoyo, it’s not a bad farm system, three prospects on my top 100 is going to be the average by definition, and there’s depth there. Try the decaf.

J: Yordan Alvarez: Off the top 113 because of position? Overrated bat? Because his body makes all the boys come to the Yordan? (what?)
Keith Law: All of that. Well, the first two. And basically zero projection for growth.

Garrett: How far off was Jahmai Jones from your just missed? Do you think he can bounce back after last year.
Keith Law: Love the player, adequate already at 2b, has to produce.

Max: Are you going to vote for ARod if you’re still voting then?
Keith Law: Yes.

J.P.: I see one of two Luis Garcias on the list. What led to the omission of the Nats’ one?
Keith Law: I don’t know how to answer these questions. The truth is that these players are better prospects than he is. And, FWIW, no source who reviewed earlier versions of my list argued to put him on.

Adam: How far is Contreras from being ready?
Keith Law: Three years seems fair.

Ben: How do you think Cubs fans should look at only placing 1 in your top 100–natural result of graduating talent to a World Series championship, or evidence that they’re not evaluating or developing players well? I’m guessing the former, but wonder what your take is.
Keith Law: It’s fair to ask why they’ve had so many pitching prospects stall or bust, certainly.

AZ: Do you think Carter Stewart would have made your list if he had signed last year?
Keith Law: He was my #2 prospect going into the draft, and I think my top ten from that board all made the 100 or just missed list, so I would say yes.

Eric: Thank you for your work, I subscribe to Insider specifically to read it (and Buster’s work), but I’m literally laughing at all of the Twitter folks that don’t work in baseball figuratively losing their minds over rankings that do not impact their daily lives. This is supposed to be fun, people!
Keith Law: The thing that kills me is people who don’t know much or anything about the players, and who never scouted them or called scouts or executives or analysts to gather info on those players, claiming their opinions on the rankings are somehow equivalent to mine. FOH. You can have an opinion, but please don’t think I’m going to change mine based on yours.

Josh, Chicago (-59 right now): You seem to be highest on Dunn, Kelenic and Sheffield for Mariners with having all three in top 60. Haven’t seen them all that high in any other rankings. What are you seeing with them that others might not?
Keith Law: I wrote 200 or so words on every player. It’s there.

Lale: What are Vlad Jr’s weaknesses? When do you think will be his most productive years?
Keith Law: He’s probably a DH. He’s huge already at 19, not a good defender now, not likely to get better or get lighter. If you asked me which prospect I’d want for 2019, it’d be him. This list looks forward though, and for career value, I couldn’t take him, a likely DH who could get extremely heavy as he ages, over Tatis, a potential above-average defender at short who has a better long-term physical projection. The difference between an average SS and a DH just in positional adjustments for one season (150 games) is about 20 runs. If you think Tatis is just an average defender at short, Vlad Jr would have to outhit him by 20 runs of value just to pull even in total value.

Justin R: I noticed quite a large disparity between some of your top prospects (especially around the 50-70 range) and other lists (BA, BP, MLB Pipeline). I know you don’t look at other lists, but have you identified any differences in the way you evaluate prospects vs. other outlets?
Keith Law: As I said, I think highly of MLB, Baseball America, and Fangraphs. Fangraphs’ guys and I do a lot of in-person evaluations and incorporate that into our rankings. MLB and BA don’t – and that’s fine. It’s a different method. But all four of us talk extensively to scouts and FO people about our lists too.

Ben: What’s the latest on Adbert Alzolay? I think he was near the end of your top 100 last year–is he healthy again?
Keith Law: Wasn’t healthy and still needs a better third pitch.

Matt: Saw Adonis Medina fell off the list. I’m sorry if I missed an explanation; what were your thoughts there?
Keith Law: He did not fall off the list.

Randy: Corbin Martin and Josh James both made huge advances in the last year to become top 100 prospects. Do you think this is more of a result from the Astros system of developing pitchers, or more of these two pitchers own personal development?
Keith Law: James made some personal life changes that helped him improve his conditioning and become more serious about learning to pitch. Martin just got away from bad usage in college into a system where they let him be himself on the mound.

Zach: Love the Trammell ranking, but I’m concerned people overvalued his strong showing at the Futures Game. Was there enough shown in his modest 2nd half numbers to warrant the big movement up prospect lists?
Keith Law: I didn’t overvalue (or value) his showing in one exhibition game. His tools are there. I couldn’t tell you what his second half numbers said – unless there was a physical or mechanical change, it’s not worth slicing up the season into random tranches.

Rege: After a strong AFL, is Cole Tucker on the radar for top 100 at mid season?
Keith Law: No. AFL doesn’t really tell us much – it’s a hitter’s environment, too.

Andrew : Was it an editor’s choice to go from 51 to 100 instead of descending order?
Keith Law: Yes, their call, not mine.

Jamie: Has Nick Gordon fallen off the prospect ledge? What are scouts saying about him?
Keith Law: Look at what he did in AAA – and scouts said it was like he was swinging a wet noodle.

AZ: I know what you think of Bohemian Rhapsody. What would you think of Rami Malek winning best actor?
Keith Law: It’s best actor, not best impersonator.

Brian Godish: Not a question, but great job on the annual prospect lists. I honestly only subscribe to ESPN+ for content like this, thanks.
Keith Law: Thank you!

This guy: Any advice for someone just starting to understand the need for coping with anxiety/panic issues?
Keith Law: Meditation/mindfulness.

Derek : Guys like Alonso, Rooker, Yordan to name a few are they dinged in rankings because of the high threshold for 1B Bats?
Keith Law: Yes, and none is a good defender.

Andrew: Anthony Rizzo a comp for Grant Lavigne? 1B with plus ability to get on base and have average to a tick above average power?
Keith Law: I said that.

Justin R: How did the Yankees go in less than a year from one of the best systems in the game to nobody in the top 100?
Keith Law: Well, they didn’t have “nobody in the top 100,” so I don’t know what you’re asking.

Ghost of Josey Wales: Lone Star Ball said today that the Rangers have a number of red chip prospects, guys who fall in the 50-200 range overall in baseball, but no blue chips. Is that a fair assessment of where the team stands, or are they being overly optimistic about how many second-tier guys there are there?
Keith Law: That’s fair.

Carl: You said on Twitter that Yordan wasn’t close to 100, yet I believe you were the high man on him last year. What happened to change your mind. Seems like he hit well. Was the defense projected better?
Keith Law: These lists are not sequential – I start the list from scratch every year. I don’t even look at last year’s list when starting a new one.

Nick: I am curious what you have heard about Wenceel Perez. Will he be best Tigers SS prospect?
Keith Law: Not now, but he’s a name to watch.

Paulie P: Obviously Cal Quantrill had a miserable 2018 but are you still optimistic about his long-term prospects?
Keith Law: No, his stuff peaked in 2016 in his pro debut and for two years now it hasn’t progressed.

Jederle: How does klaw order his steak?
Keith Law: I don’t. I gave up beef two years ago.

Larry: Did you really think you had to go to 114? Does a guy like Nick Madrigal really deserve a writeup/ranking?
Keith Law: OK, Larry wants me to write up fewer players next year. When I stop at 86 next year, folks, it’s Larry’s fault.

Jonathan: Thought on Nate Lowe? For sure going to hit after making solid adjustments last year or still concern he’s Casey Gillaspie?
Keith Law: Better than Gillaspie. Still not sure he’s more than an average regular. I do think he’ll hit/get on base.

Johnny: Are more prospects focusing on plate discipline than in previous years? Seems like so many guys are coming up and being patient right off the bat. Or is that just confirmation bias on my part?
Keith Law: I think more teams are working on teaching this even at the lower levels.

Aaron: How close was Adolfo to top 100? Is he out due to injury, or because he just needs to show more?
Keith Law: He had a good year, but he was hurt and didn’t play the field all year either, and that was his first really strong year at the plate. I do like him, but that’s not a top 100 guy, not with the lack of track record and still open questions.

Zach: Jonathan India put up better numbers in the SEC than did Nick Senzel, but came out of nowhere. I noticed he didn’t make your top 100. Any concerns there beyond the slow start in pro-ball?
Keith Law: Did anyone actually read my top 100? I’m starting to wonder.

Joe: If you’re the Tigers, where do you start Mize this year and where do you hope he finishes?
Keith Law: Start in lakeland, hope he finishes in Toledo. Could pitch in the majors if needed, but he won’t be needed.

JP: Does Chavis still profile at 3B, or does your non-ranking indicate a move to 1B?
Keith Law: Don’t think he’s a 3b. At least not an average one.

Lance: Does Lazaro Armenteros (Oakland) or Julio Rodriguez (Seattle) crack the top 100 next year? And what do you think of their futures?
Keith Law: Lazarito definitely not, Rodriguez maybe for 2021.

Jason: Long-time fan, reader – too bad I can’t read your baseball work anymore as I’m Canadian. Thanks for the Dish though!
Keith Law: Try signing up through a VPN. Several readers reported that will allow you to circumvent the restrictions on ESPN+ for international subscribers.

Joe: Would it make any sense for the Dodgers to trade Ruiz in a deal for Realmuto?
Keith Law: Definitely not. And I don’t think they will.

Danny: I have no basis to quibble but very surprised that Deivi Garcia is your top Yankees prospect. Safe to say that there is a bit of distance between Deivi and presumably your next 2 Yankees prospects, Florial and Periera?
Keith Law: Those were my next two prospects, on the just missed page.

Dan: Love seeing your rankings, Keith. Such a small difference, but what is your reasoning for Honeywell being one spot ahead of Kopech? Does it come down to how his rehab is going compared to Kopech’s rehab still being early on?
Keith Law: We’re not really going to quibble over players separated by one spot in the rankings, are we? Other than 1-2 I don’t think that’s a conversation to have.

Tim: If he stays healthy could Alec Hansen be a top 50 guy next year?
Keith Law: How much was health, and how much was trouble with his delivery leading to lack of command? I don’t have a good answer for that.

Randy: Hi Keith, do you think Kirilloff could make it up to Twins by the end of the year? Thanks!
Keith Law: Nonzero chance but very unlikely.

Jonathan: My daughter is in 2nd grade and into comical chapter books at the moment. Any suggestions?
Keith Law: Paddington would be perfect.

David: How difficult was it deciding between Tatis and Guerrero for the #1 ranking?
Keith Law: Not really. See above – we’re talking a ~20 run advantage for Tatis out of the chute, and I happen to think Tatis is going to mash, plus I have long-term concerns over Vlad’s body that aren’t there for Tatis.

Chris: Was it almost all injury history/risk that kept Loaisiga off the Top 110?
Keith Law: He’s never been healthy for a full season or close to it, and this year it was a shoulder issue. I feel like the ease with which many pitchers return from TJ (elbow!) has made some folks feel like shoulder injuries are also not a concern. They are, big time.

Larry: Is Fernando Romero still a prospect?
Keith Law: No longer eligible. Still love him, want to see him start.

Steeeve: How does Myles Straw perform in the majors? He’s plus across the board in all but power but how does the opposite field approach translate? Can’t really reverse shift a RHH, right?
Keith Law: He’s plus in speed (80), not across the board, and probably has 20 power. Who has succeeded recently with that profile? Billy Hamilton never did. Terence Gore is a pinch runner.

Brett: Is Trea Turner a good player comp for Royce Lewis? If not, who?
Keith Law: Not remotely similar.

Shaun: Any chance Victor Victor makes the big leagues this year? What do you envision his comp being?
Keith Law: Extra outfielder.

Hank: Does BRUSDAR’s height create the same plane concerns that Berrios’ did on the fastball for you?
Keith Law: They aren’t the same pitcher. Graterol’s issues are more delivery-related – see the just missed column for more.

Jason: Does your ranking of Gore mean there isn’t an expectation that the blister thing is a long term issue?
Keith Law: It’s not a long term issue.
Keith Law: Or does he have some sort of chronic blister disease?

Jonathan: You’re the new president of the Player’s Association. What are the three things you will fight tooth-and-nail for in the next CBA?
Keith Law: You have to raise pay for players who haven’t reached free agency. The luxury tax threshold needs to go up, if not be eliminated entirely. And I’d fight for more pay for minor leaguers.

Max: Seeing as how my yankees just traded Sonny Gray, with hindsight being 20/20 was trading for him a big mistake? Fowler, Mateo and Kaprielian for Gray turned into Gray for a draft pick and Stowers.
Keith Law: Kaprielian we’ll see. Mateo was awful last year and Fowler is just a guy. Maybe they could have gotten more for that package at that time, but right now I don’t think they have much to regret.

Kevin: Given his graduation from prospect status and usage last year, does Max Fried still profile as a SP for you? Or do you think he ends up a long reliever given all the other Braves options?
Keith Law: He could start for someone, although Atlanta has so many options it might not happen there. Definitely profiles as a starter to me.

San Cristóbal D.R: Really high on deivi garcia considering you didn’t saw severino as a starter because of his small frame?
Keith Law: That’s dead false. I never dinged Severino for a small frame. I didn’t like his delivery and still don’t.

Kevin: I believe Mitch White made a midseason list or was at least a name to watch for you previously, did you get to see him last season? Any chance he ends up getting a spot start with the Dodgers this year?
Keith Law: He was on my midseason list over in 2017. Has had trouble staying healthy, and when he’s pitched his stuff has varied widely.

KC: Do you think Soroka’s shoulder issues from 2018 are behind him? Assuming he is the guy we saw in his first few major league starts and there aren’t any issues, would he be higher on your list?
Keith Law: I think his delivery puts more stress on his shoulder. I hope it’s never an issue again, and his shit looked unhittable in the majors, but I can’t not see that arm swing or ignore the possibility it led to the shoulder issue.

Danny: Where do you think Periera and Cabello start this season?
Keith Law: Charleston for both.

Jason: Any serious consideration for Wander Franco at #1 when you were putting th Elise together?
Keith Law: No. That would have been indefensible.

Sean: No Bohm in the top 100. Worried about his bat or that he will eventually end up at First?
Keith Law: Pro scouts were not fans of his defense and didn’t see an elite bat for 1b.

Paul: Don’t mean to nitpick or troll, but Gohara has pitched exactly 49 IP and I believe still has rookie eligibility. Is there some other qualifier I just don’t know about besides IP – maybe time on the 40-man?
Keith Law: If you read the intro to the rankings, it explains that rookie eligibility expires over 130 AB, 50 IP, or 45 days on the active roster during the 25-man limit. Gohara exceeded the last criterion.

Jason Amico: I’m currently reading your book Smart Baseball….I think your severely underrate Omar Vizquel’s defense
Keith Law: So you’re saying the data underrate Omar’s defense. That’s a take.

randplaty: A lot of people are putting an 80 grade on Vlad’s hit tool. You don’t think that adds up to more than 20 runs? Or do you think Tatis’ bat is better than others are giving credit for?
Keith Law: I don’t think his bat will be 20 runs better than Tatis year in and year out – and I think Tatis may be better than average at short – and I would bet on Tatis having a longer, healthier career than Vlad.

Zihuatanejo: How much time do you spend scouting players personally vs. talking to other scouts and team personnel?
Keith Law: Not sure how to measure that. I see players all year, whenever i can, through the AFL. Then I’ve spent the last ~two months making calls.

Jonathan: Chris Paddack = Young James Shields with the FB/CH combo and get-me-over breaker?
Keith Law: I feel like he has better command than Shields did but you’re in the ballpark.

Chris: Would your Best Impersonator argument apply to Bale as well? If so, who would you like of the remaining nominees?
Keith Law: I thought Bale did more as an actor, while obviously benefiting from the makeup and doing an impersonation. I’d take Cooper of the five nominees (haven’t seen Dafoe yet, but will). Joaquin Phoenix deserved a nomination for You Were Never Really Here, which too few people saw; and Ethan Hawke was flat-out robbed here for First Reformed.

Andrew: Where in the world is Anderson Espinoza? Any reason to think he can’t still reclaim prospect status?
Keith Law: Been gone for two years now. Let’s see what his stuff looks like if and when he returns.

nelson: How have your readers’ reactions changed to your top 100 over the years?
Keith Law: That’s a great question. I think wider availability of prospect information, and more non-professional sites trying to offer ‘scouting’ reports, has changed the conversation for better and worse. Questions and debates become more insightful.

SeanE: You have probably addressed this in the past, but why have you given up Beef?
Keith Law: My daughter and I share a metabolic disorder that makes red meat in general harder for our bodies to process. We gave up all red meat other than pork. I only miss it occasionally.

CBS: do you see a player like Khalil Lee ever developing enough of a hit or contact tool to be a MLB regular?
Keith Law: Yes. Not a hacker, just runs deep counts. And he improved his contact rate last year.

Mike: I’m surprised you haven’t had more teeth gnashing from delusional Giants fans, but maybe (hopefully) you’re filtering them out. Is it possible that Bart’s future is more variable given the position and his swing and miss? Or is it less variable given that he is a more finished (old) product?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s going to hit for much average. How different is he from Sean Murphy?

Mike: Was Garrett Hampson in consideration for the top 100? Is he purely a 2B or does the glove play at SS and maybe even CF?
Keith Law: I think there’s too much chance he doesn’t hit enough for 2b (he can’t play SS) to be a regular there.

Dave: Is there a performance or development reason that A ball is split between “Low-A” and “High-A” rather than just… say… having the minors go to AAAA? Or is it just an historical relic?
Keith Law: Historical relic. There were class B, C, and D leagues in the distant past. I feel like Rob Neyer might know more.

Dylan: Damn it Larry
Keith Law: #ItsLarrysFault

Dan: My music interests seem to differ quite a bit from yours but I have been obsessed with Young Fathers since reading your lists. They are incredible.
Keith Law: Aren’t they? I feel like nobody is quite like them. Someone accused me of liking only ‘mainstream’ hip-hop (which is really not true), and I felt like you can’t get less mainstream than Young Fathers.

Garrett: Chris Rodriguez was on your list
Keith Law: He was on it in 2018, but missed the year with a stress fracture in his back.

TK: I read the intro so I actually don’t have a question about your rankings. Loved reading them, though! Thanks.
Keith Law: You’re the only one.

Atown Ant: How far off was Ryan Dunne from Top 100? Looked like he had big upside in Cape Cod summer league, just needs to get his head on straight.
Keith Law: I assume this is a joke about that dumb movie (well, I think it’s dumb, but I haven’t actually watched it), but there was a Ryan Dunne on Billings last summer.

Travis: Thoughts on Julio Rodriguez? Was he in the discussion for the top 100? Does he have superstar upside?
Keith Law: I don’t think I had any DSL players on the top 100, did I? Not sure who the last July 2nd player without US pro experience was who made my 100 … maybe Sano.

Tim: Taking out Kopechs tommy john…how would you rate Chicago’s return in the Sale trade so far?
Keith Law: I think they did very well. Basabe is a real prospect. Kopech has an 80-85% chance of returning to exactly what he was before. Moncada has disappointed fans who were told he was the best prospect in baseball, but he still has value and room to develop. Good trade.

Andrew: Pretty cool to see Tatis #1. I remember seeing you taking video of him in the backfields of Peoria in 2017. At that point he was hitting homers on the AA field and it was clear he was special before even making it to full season ball.
Keith Law: He’s just not as famous as Vlad, and that’s fine, but I don’t consider fame in these rankings.

Tom: Is your ranking of Madrigal more of a ceiling issue?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s a fair way to put it. And I don’t think he’s a guaranteed regular, either. He’s exceptionally small for a major-league position player in 2019.

Steve O: Thanks for all the coverage. You’re the only reason why I have ESPN+ or whatever it’s called these days.
Keith Law: Well, maybe the name will change again in six months, but thank you.

Dave: I would love to see some sort of show with you, Mayo/Callis, J.J. Cooper, and Longerhagen/McDaniel in a format like ESPN’s The Sports Reporters. Baseball fans can’t get enough of prospect coverage and you guys would be tremendous.
Keith Law: I agree, but the powers that be don’t.

Larry: I am a little surprised by how high Duplantier is ranked. Is his shoulder not a huge concern for you? Or is his upside great enough that it outweighs any concerns about his health? Thank you!
Keith Law: Sure it’s a concern, but he came back from it healthy and throwing as hard as ever. It’s when guys don’t come back (yet) that I worry.

Mike: Hi Keith, my daughter is about to celebrate her 6th birthday and I’ve been trying to find an game to gift her that will both be something that challenges her and entertains her enough to act as an entry point into board games. Any suggestions? Thanks!
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride First Journey. Mole Rats in Space if you want a co-op title you can all play and win (or lose) together.

Sarcastic Commenter: Is it possible that Trump is tanking the GOP so they can get a higher draft pick and money pool for the 2024 President talent draft?
Keith Law: I laughed.

Joe: Michel Baez- reason for such a dramatic fall from mid-season 51 to off the list?
Keith Law: If you read what I said, there is no “fall.” Each list is organic, not based on previous lists.

Justin R: Any interest in watching the Super Bowl? Or at least cooking anything for it?
Keith Law: Probably neither. I literally forgot it was Sunday until my daughter mentioned it last night.

Rob : Any consideration of George Valera?
Keith Law: No. He missed almost the whole summer, so he’s barely played.

Robert: No question. I just wanted to thank you for the period you stayed away from the Arizona Fall League. It was nice to see Luis Robert play some games.
Keith Law: He missed one week of the AFL, and it was the week I was there.

Ryan: Briefly on Howard Schultz, I think the main problem he’s had is nobody’s actually buying his pitch: “two party system bad” while also being a – excuse the baseball term – replacement-level republican on most of his policy stances.
Keith Law: Yep. I’m glad these dipshits (add Gabbard to that list) are all playing themselves out now, while the election is over a year away.

Mike: I’m constantly impressed with how quickly you rip through these questions without spelling or grammar errors. Is there a book you could recommend on teaching proper writing techniques?
Keith Law: I read a lot, going back to when i was a kid. I have to think that helped form language skills in my mind early and then hold them in place. Although if I read more James Joyce I’d probably lose it all.

Jeries: If Ke’Bryan Hayes never develops power, can he still be a 3 WAR player?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bill: Michel Baez- reason for such a dramatic fall from mid-season #51 to off the list completely?
Keith Law: Yeah, so submitting the same question multiple times under different names doesn’t get you an answer, but it does piss me off, so don’t do that.

Wade: Who do you dream about making the biggest jump in your 2020 rankings? Who do you have nightmares about falling out of your rankings (for non-injury concerns)?
Keith Law: Mostly injury concerns are what bother me, but I was surprised how many front office guys didn’t value Sheffield the way I did (I’ve seen him lights-out, and think he’s a great athlete who’ll adjust well) or the Mariners did. The next guy on my Angels list was Jordyn Adams; I think he could be a superstar, but he just hasn’t played that much baseball yet and I felt like that would be overreaching since we don’t have a great idea of his zone control or pitch recognition yet.

Magoo: Anything to buy into with Florial and the Yankees hiring the so called guru of pitch recognition?
Keith Law: I wrote that too.

Lololololol: RE Vizquel, “I’m reading your published book and I think its wrong” is one of my all time favorite Klawchat moments.
Keith Law: Welcome to my life.
Keith Law: Sorry to cut this off but I have one more scout call to make for these last few lists, and it’s time for that. I’ll do a Periscope (video) chat on Thursday, and another Klawchat next week when the team reports run. I also used the Instagram story feature for today’s announcements for the first time (with a soundtrack!), so feel free to follow me there (@mrkeithlaw) and let me know if you enjoy those clips. Thanks again for reading, subscribing, and for all the questions!

My latest board game review for Paste covers Forbidden Sky, a new cooperative title from Matt Leacock (Pandemic, Forbidden Island) with a great STEM component to game play.

A reminder: the Top 100 prospect package begins its rollout on ESPN.com on Monday, January 28th.

Keith Law: At least we left before we had to go. Klawchat.

addoeh: Over/under? Combined, Harper and Machado’s deals end up being worth $500 million.
Keith Law: I’ll still take the over. I think the potential boost, in ticket sales and in wins, from adding one of those players will convince an owner to blink before we get to March. It’s the middle and lower tiers who will bear the brunt of the teams’ parsimony.

Nook: Is Bellinger still young enough to make significant strides offensively, or do you think 2018 was a realistic showing of who he is?
Keith Law: He’s still 23 so age isn’t a concern, but the way he swings leaves him vulnerable to a couple of pitching plans and he has to show he can adjust and shorten up if he wants to be more than he’s already been.

Adriane: Could you see the Reds selling off most of these new acquisitions at the deadline if the first half is a disappointment?
Keith Law: Yes, or even next winter in the case of Gray if he has a good year but the team still finishes in 4th place.

Kimmy: Dennis Santana: 4th-starter ceiling?
Keith Law: More likely reliever for me. I feel like if he starts he’d be more than that, but the odds are he’s a reliever.

Devon: Do you see the current collusion in the FA market as a cyclical problem that disappears after a few offseasons?
Keith Law: If it’s collusion, it’s not cyclical. One or the other.

Ave Maria: Is there a pitcher in the Dodgers system you’re particularly high on at the moment?
Keith Law: Several. You’ll see a couple of those names Monday-Wednesday.

Genesis B: Not that you care, but do you think Jeter has tainted his legacy somewhat since his group took over the Marlins?
Keith Law: I don’t care, but I can still comment. And yes, I think so.

barbeach: KLaw: Thanks as always for the chat. Question: Who is worse at his job: Trump or Giuliani? It’s close, but I have to go with Rudy.
Keith Law: Giuliani. He makes Lionel Hutz (RIP) look like Clarence Darrow.

Guest: Thoughts on the Mariano induction? Does this mean unanimous elections are going to be more common?
Keith Law: I believe they will be and fans will attach undue meaning to it. If your player gets in with 75.00%, that should be good enough.

Chris : The Markakis and Pomeranz deals are great for ATL and SFG. Agree?
Keith Law: They’re fine. They’re not bad. Great … would require a lot more than I think either player will provide.

Guest: What are the odds that the Mets traded Kelenic at his highest peak value? I’m sure the Rangers wish they traded Profar.
Keith Law: Low. Kelenic was too impressive this summer to think he’s peaked.

Helena: Is the long reliever cemented as a thing of the past, or could the Brewers’ and Red Sox postseason strategies revive it?
Keith Law: On the contrary, it’s already been revived, and I’m hearing more scouts describe pitchers as multi-inning relievers rather than just going with the binary starter/reliever framework.

Chris : Any buy-low FA starters you’d take over others? Wade Miley and Doug Fister seem like innings eaters in the right environment.
Keith Law: Miley for sure, best of that group. Fister, no.

Esteban: Who are a couple of names that weren’t on the top 100 or ‘Just Missed’ list that you wouldn’t be surprised–even expect– to make a big leap?
Keith Law: I’m not revealing any names on the list today. You’ll see them Monday through Wednesday and I will chat either Wednesday or Thursday.

addoeh: So our billionaire Commerce Secretary had his “Let them eat cake!” moment by saying furloughed Federal employees should get loans to cover the fact they aren’t getting paychecks. Of course, loans themselves have a real cost and some Federal employees may only be able to get predatory loans. Can he really be that out of touch?
Keith Law: Yes, he definitely is, as is Lara Trump, as are so many of the people responsible for the Trump Shutdown who appear unaware of the consequences for so many federal workers and for so many people who voted for Trump.

Leonardo: While it’s nice that Rivera was named on 100% of the HOF ballots it makes me wonder why 23 people didn’t vote for Willie Mays and 9 passed on Hank Aaron. I feel they were much better players (even in a different era). Any theories/ideas?
Keith Law: Lack of accountability. Misguided notions of “not on the first ballot.” General stupidity.

Mark: Hi Klaw,
If for some reason Tatis isn’t called up (injury, poor production, etc.) is Urias good enough defensively to play a full season at SS and be at least league average?
Keith Law: I think he’d be a 45 defender in the majors at short. I’m fine with him playing there for two months while Tatis tears up triple-A.

Mark: Keith,
Did you read the story in the SD Union-Tribune about the Padres’ owners “opening their books”? If so, did you find any of the information notable or was it just spin? Fowler, et all, come off looking like novices, like they didn’t know Moores was leaving a ton of debt or that just because you acquire some MLB players for one season in 2015 it doesn’t automatically mean you’re going to make a $50 million profit.
Keith Law: It did not paint the owners in a particularly good light.

Lafayette: If Andrew Friedman phoned you in a panic, desperate to find out how to put a World Series champion on the field, what would you tell him (after “Read ‘Smart Baseball”) ?
Keith Law: Live by launch angle, die by launch angle.

Fuzzy Dunlop: Snit saying they are leaning toward Inciarte leading off. 2 weeks max before they swtich Acuna there, right?
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s the wrong choice.

Kip: Arenado or Machado?
Keith Law: Machado.

Trevor: The D-backs have announced they’re switching their field surface from grass to turf next year and the Rangers may install it in their new stadium. Are you a purist and prefer the natural surface or ¯\_(?)_/¯ about it? Does it affect the grading of defensive skills in anyway?
Keith Law: Doesn’t affect the grading. Prefer grass from the aesthetic perspective but it’s still baseball on good turf.

Mike: Klaw, thanks for the chat. Who do we see first in MLB, a lefty catcher or lefty middle infielder. I read where Mets prospect Carlos Cortes learned how to throw with right hand so he can still play the infield. That’s crazy,
Keith Law: How could a lefty thrower play short or second?

Marshall MN: KLaw, I was just perusing the Baseball Prospectus Top 100, just curious do you ever look at those lists? Not necessarily as a check on your work but just to see how other writers/analysts rank prospects?
Keith Law: I look at BA’s (came out yesterday), MLB’s (comes out Saturday), and Fangraphs’ (comes out after the Super Bowl, date TBD). Those are the only lists I find credible, and I believe that is the industry sentiment. Jonathan Mayo and I generally compare our lists once they’re published, too. It’s fun to see what we heard that lined up and what we heard that widely differed.

Alex: As an author, how do you feel about people who can afford to buy your book, or any book, borrowing from the library instead? Is it a material drain on earnings? As background, my wife and I are trying to reduce our “new” purchases, but I don’t want to hurt authors.
Keith Law: Read my book however you like. I use the library myself. I buy new and used books. I buy ebooks when I see they’re on sale. read 104 books last year – that’s a lot of money if I buy them all new.

Kody: Dodgers sign Pollock for 4-5 years depending on who you believe. Doesn’t even a 10 year deal for Harper taking him through about the same age as Pollock’s deal make more sense? Nobody is concerned about Harper’s 26-31 seasons, right?
Keith Law: Well it’s not the same annual cost, not close.

Marshall MN: KLaw is it too early to put in a preemptive “you hate my team” complaint prior to the release of your Top 100 list next week?
Keith Law: Never too early.

David Stearns: I am high on my guy Hirua, how much of his minor league hit prowess translates, and do we have a 2B for the next 10 years who is at the top f his game?
Keith Law: He’s a solid player, very very likely to hit enough to be a regular. Star potential is limited.

Matt: There had to be a handful of writers that didn’t want to vote Rivera but were also worried they’d be the *only* one that didn’t vote for him right?
Keith Law: I never considered omitting him, but it occurred to me that doing so could make me the only one, and then I’d have to go into hiding.

Sack: When do you expect Harper and Machado to sign?
Keith Law: In February.

Mike: When a prospect returns bonus money, as Murray in theory might, how does that actually work? Presumably he’s spent some of it, so does the team give him time to repay? And what about taxes–he presumably paid a huge tax bill in the year he got his big bonus…can he claim a huge refund in the year he gives it back?
Keith Law: If Murray has to return the money it means he just got a much larger check from the NFL. He’ll be fine.

B Mand: Do you think the current Red Sox bullpen is as big of a weakness as most make it out to be? With the year to year fluctuation of relief pitchers, I’m fine with them saving their money for in-season trades if they end up needing help.
Keith Law: Same. And I wouldn’t overpay for Kimbrel just to try to patch it.

J: With another mystifying off-season for the Rockies coming to a close, what do you see them doing with McMahon and Rodgers, at least in 2019? And, Twins’ handling of outfield prospects aside, has a top prospect been more oddly dealt with than McMahon in recent years?
Keith Law: I feel like Rodgers is blocked for the moment, although I’m not a big Hampson fan (it’s 30 power) and Rodgers might bash enough in Albuquerque (huge hitter’s park) to force the issue by June. Their reluctance to let McMahon play regularly is befuddling. High pick, touted by the team, athletic, still has growth left. Play him.

Aaron C.: Has the *official* official schedule for the daily(?) prospects postings been released or is that still in the hands of your benevolent editor?
Keith Law: I mentioned it at the top of this post.

Ryan: Keith – do you think the removal of one year of team control – or even a change in the number of years of arbitration rights a team holds over a player – could help the stagnant free agency period and/or help to re-establish the player middle class. As is, I see the league devolving into a split between the well paid superstars and the entry level/roughly minimum wage players. In fairness, baseball isn’t the only sport going this route, but it certainly feels as wrong as the shrinking middle class in America. Thank you
Keith Law: I think the best solution would be to boost the minimum salary to $1 million or more. But that has some unintended consequences too.

Tom: Al Avila said today he doesn’t foresee the Tigers spending again until 2021, and that that’s the soonest they can compete. Does 2021 seem like a realistic goal for them in terms of being relevant?
Keith Law: I probably would have said 2022. The system has improved but still has a ways to go.

Mike: Thoughts on Dodgers trading away Puig (and friends) and replacing him with older and injury prone AJ Pollock?
Keith Law: Puig was a free agent after the year, so your question is leading, omitting a critical detail – and Pollock may be older but he’s a better all-around player right now.

Shane: Have you heard any whispers about what type of punishment the Dodgers face for their international issues and if that is playing a hand in their offseason moves?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard a word about it nor have I asked. Not really my department.

Anthony: Would you support a rule that shrinks MiLB option years from 3 to 1? It seems teams cycle through pre-arb guys with options while eschewing mid-level free agents, and this could open up opportunities for players blocked in their current orgs by spurring trades or waiver claims (albeit with maybe some adverse effects on player development)?
Keith Law: I feel like owners would absolutely lose their shit over that. They love their control.

Zirinsky: Hi Keith. What should MLB and the union consider implementing: earlier free agency, scrapping amateur bonus limits…what else?
Keith Law: I like the idea of earlier free agency because it’s pro-player, but really, would it change teams’ refusal to spend? I don’t see why.

BE: With the slow moving FA market, would it make sense for a team in a winnable division to load up on bargain deals and try to steal one?
Keith Law: I think you just subtweeted the Twins and White Sox.

Jason: Is Pollock better than Joc Pederson over the next two years?
Keith Law: Yes.

Zac: After next year, do you think your HOF ballot won’t have 10 names on it?
Keith Law: If I had to fill it out right now, I’d have 9.

Kwame: I know this is kind of a cheesy question but how did it feel to cast a Hall of Fame ballot?
Keith Law: Good. An honor and a privilege, but also an obligation to take it seriously. And yet there are still people unhappy with me. ?

Bort: Bryce Harper to the Blue Jays. Wouldn’t that be fun?
Keith Law: Yes. Can’t imagine Rogers doing that.

Andrew: Where do you see Kuechel landing? Would be a great fit for Colorado and give them one of the better rotations in the NL.
Keith Law: Great fit for every team, no?

Jerry: If Kyle Tucker tears it up in the spring again is he still headed to AAA to start the season? Is there a trade market for Josh Reddick?
Keith Law: They don’t really have a DH, so there is a job for Tucker if he earns it.

Andrew: I don’t get the uproar RE: the Gillette commercial. Aren’t they just saying don’t raise your kid to be an ass?
Keith Law: Yes. The uproar felt almost manufactured. Or maybe men are just little porcelain dolls who shatter if you look at them funny.

Boa : Angels are mystery Harper/Machado suitor right? Do over from Pujols/Hamilton disasters?
Keith Law: That would be fun. And then they probably do make the playoffs.

Alex: Saw your Instagram post about ottolenghi’s newest cookbook. Food looks good! But I’m also reading reviews that the recipes for an average home cook might actually take longer than 30mins to prepare? What’s been your experience?
Keith Law: The shallow-fried potatoes I made last night required about 10-15 minutes of prep and then cooked for 35. So that’s not a 30 minute recipe. I think the book’s beauty is that nothing is hard – you don’t need huge skills for anything, so if you do have some skills, you can prep quickly. My main complaint so far is that his quantities of herbs are hilariously high. 1/2 cup of thyme? I’d spend all fucking day trimming leaves to get that.

Bob: Time to give up on Hunter Harvey?
Keith Law: Why? Not sure I understand the desire fans have to give up on players.

Lilith: Sammy Siani or Mike Siani? Who has better tools and who would you say ends up being the better prospect?
Keith Law: I haven’t scouted Sammy yet, but he’s local so I certainly will. Mike could really run and I think he can hit, but some doofus hitting guru decided to try to improve his launch angle and suddenly he was Mr. Popup.

Zach: Should the Reds be commending for trying to win (unlike half the league) and holding onto their top prospects, or criticized for giving up mid-level pieces to improve a team that still probably won’t make the playoffs?
Keith Law: Thrilled to see a team try to win, but I don’t think they’ve gotten good value for their prospects.

Traino: Biggest Oscar lock?
Keith Law: Roma for Best Foreign Language Film.

ergo08: Hi Keith, listening to Jade Bird right now! Thanks for all your great content including that hidden gem. She rocks. Is there such a thing as how a swing transitions from aluminum to wood? Or, does that not really matter? Also, Twenty one pilots – yea or nay? Thanks!!
Keith Law: There can be a difference for some hitters, depending on the swing path and the hitter’s hand/wrist strength. I hate Twentyone pilots with the fire of a billion suns.

Beetlejuice: Seems like Gray has a good chance of outperforming 4 yrs @ $38M. Did he sell himself too short or does he have serious questions on being a league avg pitcher going forwards?
Keith Law: He also has a good chance of getting hurt, or underperforming. I don’t blame him one bit.

Jordan: With Justin Dunn gone, which pitcher has the most upside in the Mets system? I am torn between Szapucki and Woods-Richardson.
Keith Law: SWR – started throwing harder once he stopped playing shortstop too.

CH: Mariano Rivera is a HoFer for sure, but has anyone else’s worst career moments ever been more overlooked and whitewashed than his? (Luis Gonzalez/Game 7 2001 WS, Dave Roberts/Game 5 2004 ALCS, Sandy Alomar/Game 4 ALDS 1997).
Keith Law: I’m having a hard time seeing the Gonzalez or Roberts moments as some terrible events we’d have to work to gloss over. Didn’t Gonzalez just chop one weakly up the middle?

Patrick: If there was no 10 max, how many people would have gotten your vote for HOF?
Keith Law: I said 14 in my column, IIRC.

Jackie: Jeter is the only “gimmie” on next year’s HOF ballot. Do you think Curt Schilling, the highest vote total among the non-elected, goes in as well? Perhaps the only American who needs to stay away from Twitter more than Trump …
Keith Law: I believe Jeter gets in, still think Walker can make a big move (with some sabermetrics support), and wonder if the changing electorate will hurt Schilling, who seemed from Ryan Thibodeaux’s work to get far more of his support from white, male writers than other candidates.

Justin R: Is next year finally going to be Max Kepler’s breakout?
Keith Law: I dreamed last night that Kepler was in the middle of a breakout season. Not even joking.

Justin R: What is stopping AOC from running for President and daring the Supreme Court to stop her? Absurd that her age disqualifies her but a racist reality show host in his 70s (with obvious signs of significant cognitive decline) can run.
Keith Law: On what grounds? The age requirement is in the Constitution. You can’t claim it’s unconstitutional.

Justin R: Can just one reporter ask Trump why we have to be nice to the little Covington bigots after what he did to the Central Park Five?
Keith Law: I think we both know the answer to that. White privilege is a hell of a drug.

Johnny: Is Eloy as ready as many are saying? What kind of an impact do you think he can make this season?
Keith Law: He was ready last summer.

Sean: Do you believe that Halladay would’ve been a first-ballot HOF regardless of his tragic passing?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t have been surprised at all if he’d fallen short, somewhere in the 60-65% range, and gotten in on year 2. His career wasn’t very long by HoF standards, and voters have been very hard on starting pitchers the last ten years.

Erik: Please tell me neither Green Book nor BR will win best
Keith Law: I’m betting on Roma. If you wanted to place an actual bet, since Roma is something like -1100, I’d go with the Favourite, which got Director and Screenplay nods. But Roma getting those two plus surprise nominations for two actresses says to me it might run the table.

Tom: Thoughts on Darwinzon Hernandez? Is his most likely future as a high-leverage reliever, or does he overcome his control issues and remain a starter?
Keith Law: Starter upside, long way to go to get there.

JIm: Keith, did you ever read any of Jasper FForde’s other books? I just finished the first book of his Nursery Crimes Division duology. A bit less compelling than the Thursday Next, but not bad at all.
Keith Law: I’ve read everything he’s written, and I preordered Early Riser already.

Larry: Hey Keith, I know you don’t like commenting on other lists, but Baseball America had Geraldo Perdomo ahead of Kristian Robinson in the Dbacks system. What do you think of Perdomo’s potential, and do you think he may be a better prospect than Robinson? Thank you!
Keith Law: I’ll just say I have Robinson a good bit higher than Perdomo.

Quicky the Fast: The Rangers appear committed to Gallo and Mazara in the outfield corners this year, which means no role for Willie Calhoun if Shin-Soo Choo is the DH. At this point, should Texas simply release Choo, or is there value in keeping him around?
Keith Law: Choo was worth 2.8 rWAR last year – releasing him now would be bonkers. At least see if he’s still capable of producing.

Taylor: Hey Keith, have you heard of a metal band called Nevermore? I just heard of them this week and they really kick ass!
Keith Law: Yes, but they’re defunct. That was Tim Calvert’s band after Forbidden, but he died last April.

Jackie: One thing about the Mariano 100% election — he was the unquestioned Best Player Ever at his position. There’s universal agreement that he’s the #1 closer of all time. When was the last time we had such a player on the ballot? Junior Griffey was a better ball player, but he wasn’t the best outfielder ever. That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if Jeter isn’t a 100% vote next year — great player, but someone will say, “Yeah, but he was no Honus Wagner.”
Keith Law: And it shouldn’t matter. He gets a plaque regardless of his vote total.

Justin R: What was the worst movie you saw in 2018?
Keith Law: The Wife. Execrable, predictable, insulting claptrap.

Victor: Could you see Judge being a passage center fielder despite his size, a-la Bellinger?
Keith Law: No.

Aaron C.: Was it last year when an illness during “prospects writing season” hampered you? Do you feel it impacted the final product w/r/t phone calls, writing length, analysis that wouldn’t hamstring a healthy Klaw? (FWIW, that’s not a dig. I always love your sh t, sir.)
Keith Law: Three years ago. Worst illness I’ve had as an adult. It cost me some phone call time, but we also pushed the whole package back a week because I physically couldn’t work.

Jackie: For the record, I’m a huge Red Sox fan, and I’m OK with it if you hate our farm system. Looking pretty barren …
Keith Law: It’s weak, but not barren – they were as riddled with injuries as any system I can think of. Their recent drafts have been solid, and they have some big-time international FA prospects on the way. They could go 25 to 10 (I don’t have that finalized, this is just a general idea) in a year.

San Cristóbal D.R: Surprise no Yankees make BA top 100 list?
Keith Law: I’m not surprised, although I have more than zero.

Beetlejuice: To win the most games, you’re given the choice of taking 5 #3 starters or a #1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Regulation season win total only considered. What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: the 1-2-3-4-5.

John : Any advice for furloughed government worker who isn’t getting paid ? How can I not be so angry at the president for a stinking wall?
Keith Law: You should be angry, and then do something about it, but first take care of yourself and your family. It’s fortunate that so many charities and businesses are trying to help – it just shouldn’t be necessary.

Sean: My guess is Harper and Machado both announce on Super Bowl Sunday. Isn’t that what A-Rod did a while back?
Keith Law: As a fan of polite trolling, I would endorse this wholeheartedly.

Matt: Can a player be removed from the Hall of Fame? Let’s say a member was convicted of murder for example.
Keith Law: Nope. Although you raise an interesting question: What if we have an OJ Simpson situation, a player on the ballot who is absolutely worthy on baseball grounds but who commits a crime that is beyond the pale? There are at least two players on the ballot now who were accused of domestic abuse (Bonds, during his career, by his wife Sun; Andruw, after his career, by his wife), and one accused of statutory rape (Clemens, who denied it). I know of one other who has an accusation that wasn’t public. I’m sure there are more. are there some crimes we can’t overlook? Does the character clause cover things after one’s career? I have no good answers.

Kyle Tucker : Do I replace Josh Reddick in June ?
Keith Law: Springer, Reddick, Brantley, Tucker, three outfield spots + DH.

Anuj: Is Ruiz and J. Gray for Realmuto too much, fair, or too little?
Keith Law: Too much, and the Dodgers are not trading for a terrible framing catcher.

Kevin : Are there any underrated minor-league prospects that come up and make an impact this summer ?
Keith Law: I’ll have a ranking of the top 20 prospects for 2019 impact up at the end of next week. As for “underrated,” if I think they’ll have an impact in 2019, then I won’t underrate them.

Justin R: Now that Edgar Martinez is (finally) in, does David Ortiz go in on the first ballot?
Keith Law: Yes.

JIm: Am I the only one who has the feeling that Trump came out of the SOTU fight looking like the more mature adult?
Keith Law: (looks around) Yep, you are indeed the only one.

Jake: Have you every played Diplomacy? If so, what did you think?
Keith Law: Yes. After the second time I killed someone for betraying me, I thought I should take a break.

Leandro: Heard you on BBTN today saying you think Helton is Hall-worthy at some point. Feel the same way about Larry Walker?
Keith Law: My ballot was public.

Jim: Keith – Do you think the sale of Fox (or part of Fox) to Disney will impact the regional sport channels and the next contracts some of the teams might get? I know the Fox interest in some, like YES, are already being discussed as available.
Keith Law: Disney wasn’t allowed to retain the RSNs (Fox Sports Paducah, etc.) by the Justice Department.

EC: Is there something that you wish readers of your prospect write ups would do or know? Like not assume gaps between ranks are uniform? Understanding positional value and scarcity? Taking a bit of time to understand how your methodology differs from other lists before coming at you? Reading the introduction?
Keith Law: Read the intro and calm down.

Todd: Shouldnt all Hall of Fame inductees have to get 100%? It should be a group of immortal players who no dibt are qualified
Keith Law: You must be fun at parties.

Patrick: going off what Mike said previously, in your opinion how come we’ve never seen a lefty catcher or why do you think it’s not taught more at a younger age?
Keith Law: If you can throw that well and you’re left-handed someone is putting you on a mound. There’s also the old belief that a LH catcher would be at a disadvantage throwing with more batters batting RH.

Chris: Brad Brach for 1/$3M is a steal. 2019 is the year of the market correction.
Keith Law: He was worth less than a win last year and relievers are volatile. It’s not like he should be getting $10 million.

Greg: Did you see all the awful Jays fans coming out of the woodwork to berate Halladay’s family for “clearly going against his wishes” to go into the hall has a Blue Jay? As if they somehow knew better than his wife, just based on one interview he gave. Just gross. Do you think it’s possible that his wife got some insight from Doc in non-interview form? Just maybe?
Keith Law: Yep. That Philly Inquirer column was worse. Someone wrote that he knew better than Halladay’s widow, and ignored Halladay’s own statements in 2016, and then at least one editor saw that and thought, “yeah, this is definitely a well-considered opinion and not something that will embarrass our entire newspaper.”

Kacey: Thoughts on AOC? Personally I’m in love. The type of politician I’ve always wanted.
Keith Law: I’m just enjoying the conservative obsession with her and how frequently she dunks on them on social media. That doesn’t make her a good or bad Congressperson, but it is very entertaining.

Todd: Yanks still have a good to really good farm system?
Keith Law: No, with trades and graduations it has declined, although they have this cluster of Latin American kids, all 19 and under, who have big potential with low probabilities.

Harrison: Do you see Nick Castellanos being dealt this offseason? If so, what type of return do you think he could bring in? Any chance at a Top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: They have no reason to keep him at this point, but should wait for a good offer – one top 100 guy, two guys who are close.

John: What’s the difference between this shutdown and the Obama shutdown besides political opinions on how much should go to the border wall? House republicans caved to Obama back then, are republicans wrong to expect the same from house democrats here?
Keith Law: I mean, what’s the difference between World War II and the Korean War besides the extermination of 6 million Jews?

Greg: Remember all those people saying Pelosi should step aside? Can you imagine anyone else handing Trump his lunch like that? You know he’s terrified of her when his nickname for her is… “Nancy.”
Keith Law: Trevor Noah made that joke. He calls a murderous dictator Rocket Man and calls Pelosi by her given name.

John: What do you think Jahmai Jones ends up as?
Keith Law: Solid average second baseman. Still have some hope for more – he hasn’t hit like I expected yet.

Ryan: I know this isnt a huge issue in the grand scheme of things but how do you feel about Halladay not going into the HOF without a Jays cap? I understand that was what his family decided but do you think players or their families should have input into this decision or should it be left up to the Hall entirely? Seems wrong that he isn’t going in as a Jay.
Keith Law: There’s no way I’m going against a widow’s wishes.

Ben Jammin: Do you think Dom Smith has some decent upside left? I think most any of the non-contending teams should be interested, as he can’t really be all that expensive.
Keith Law: Yes, and yes.

El Guapo: Thoughts on Julio Urias’ outlook? Is it 100% a health question going forward? The stuff looked to be back last fall but sample is so small… can he still be a no. 2 if everything works out? Or is that a pipe dream.
Keith Law: Uncharted waters. I know people keep asking me this, but we have so little history of pitchers having this surgery and returning that there isn’t a good answer.

drew: Keith, I’m missing your FA evaluations…how come they stopped after the first couple weeks of free agency? Can we expect them back?
Keith Law: Kind of busy writing up the prospect stuff.
Keith Law: I did write up the Gray trade though.

Jeff: Keith – I understand that the Reds only acquired 1 year of Gray from NYY, but it seems to me that they essentially agreed to a package and made it contingent upon Gray agreeing to an extension. Otherwise, they were just going to back out altogether. There was no “here’s what we’ll give you if he signs; here’s what we’ll give you if he doesn’t.” Is that more understandable/justifiable to you, or is it a distinction without a difference?
Keith Law: If they were willing to trade for his one year with the extension, then they should have been willing to trade for the one year without it.

Tyler: I am glad I do not have a vote. Your ballot was one of the better ones for sure. I would have left Rivera off and felt really bad about it. I had him between 8th and 13th on this ballot and knowing full well he was getting in would have used it on someone else. As bad as I feel for McGriff he is going to get in soon. Out of all the players who did not get 5% is there any who you wish you still had a chance to vote for?
Keith Law: Ever? Lou Whitaker.

Aaron G: The Gonzalez hit in the 2001 WS was a humpback liner that if Torre had played the IF at double play depth Jeter would have caught.
Keith Law: Right? I mean, yes, Rivera gave up the batted ball, but it’s not like it was crushed.

Marshall MN: KLaw are you going on a vacation now that your Top 100 work is wrapping up?
Keith Law: I will take a few days off in early February. Not sure if I’ll go somewhere or just chill at home.

cnp: You read 104 books last year…nice. I only hit 60 so just making my way through last years Top Books™. If you haven’t read it, I thoroughly suggest Washington Black. Thought it was beautiful
Keith Law: Thank you, I will seek it out. Best new books I read were Lincoln in the Bardo, Exit West, From a Low and Quiet Sea, Sabrina, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Why We Sleep.

Ron: Keith – the hot take bait question these days seems to be, “is it immoral for our society to have billionaires?”. How would you answer that?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t; I’m not that concerned with morality in economics. I’ll take a system that feels ‘immoral’ if it means the economy is growing and the greatest possible number of people are getting all of their basic needs met.

Kacey: What’s the theory on gaining support for the HOF? Either you think someone is worthy or you don’t.
Keith Law: The crowded ballot and time to reconsider their qualifications.

Drew: Did you listen to any exceptional audiobooks last year that you’d recommend?
Keith Law: Killers of the Flower Moon.

Joe: Keith, knowing that you have finite time, would you ever see a movie that just looks good to you even if it got poor reviews?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jackie: Do you ever look at your posts to see how many clicks/responses they get? And does that affect what you later post, i.e., “Well, no one cared about my ‘Police Academy 9’ review, so I guess I won’t review any more Steve Guttenberg movies at Meadow Party.” Or are you … indifferent to the volume of response to your posts?
Keith Law: Sort of. I stopped doing music posts beyond the monthly playlists because people didn’t click much on album reviews or leave comments. But I review a lot of books or obscure movies that don’t get clicks, and I don’t mind that. The Top Chef reviews did pretty well, on the other hand, but took 3-4 hours (including time to watch), and I just can’t afford that.

Jeries: Can Nick Madrigal be a 4 WAR player if he hits zero home runs?
Keith Law: I think he’ll hit 5-8, and probably never see 4 WAR.

Thomas: Triston Casas should start the season in ….
Keith Law: I’d be fine sending him to Greenville.

Bob Pollard: Would you consider the Cardinals’ system “ridiculously prospect-rich”?
Keith Law: No, but it’s in the middle.

KillMonger: Thanks to you, I read Sabrina and absolutely loved it – powerful storytelling. On a random note – have you read Pale Fire? I’m on a Nabokov kick and I’m finishing up Pnin right now. His prose is HOF-level.
Keith Law: I did read Pale Fire and found it kind of annoying/frustrating. Too ‘inside baseball’ for me.

Querant: Is there any practical difference between getting an invite to major league training, and not getting an invite, for a player on a minor league deal? Do they get a larger stipend if they are invited to major league camp, better housing, etc.? Or is it just a matter of which clubhouse they go to each morning?
Keith Law: Better per diems and of course a chance to play in major league games, which means a chance to make the team or catch the attention of other teams.

Brent: Do you think Luis Gonzalez from CWS is an under the radar prospect worth keeping an eye on? Put up good numbers, though I think he’s old for his level, but does he have the potential to be a “prospect”?
Keith Law: He is a prospect. Wasn’t he just a second round pick?

Jake: As someone who is well to the right of you politically (but probably on the same page on baseball), can I apologize that my party nominated this moron and still stand behind him as he fucks everything up?
Keith Law: Yes, but if lots of people like you just move temporarily to the left, we can go back to our normal level of fucked-up as opposed to the current level of holy fucking shit we fucked this up.

Ian: You mean soon to be Academy Award Winning “The Wife”. Such a weird Oscar year.
Keith Law: I’m not sure. Colman could take it.

Todd: No cloud of PEDs on Ortiz’s ballot?
Keith Law: We remember what we choose to remember, and forget what it is convenient to forget.

Doug: Looking forward to your list next week. Also, I am glad the Dominican Series is over and Tatis won’t be able to break a finger just in case you keep him at #1.
Keith Law: He’s still #1 – that’s not news, since he was there in July.

el Guapo: On Tatis, obviously you are very high on him. Is it nitpicking to point out that he struck out at a 28% clip last year and that number didn’t come down even when he went on a tear (babip reliant)? Or is it just a 19 year old playing at a very advanced AA level and I need to get used to the fact that Ks are part of modern baseball. It’s worth noting for others (not sure I have seen you do this) making the Machado comp that Manny only K’ed at a 19% clip in AA at a similar age.
Keith Law: 28% isn’t that high today and he was, as you said, 19, exceptionally young for that level. And he’s a shortstop.

Drew: Are you planning to vote in the Democratic Primary? If so, will you take electability concerns into account, or are you going to vote for whomever you think would make do the job best if they win in the general?
Keith Law: Delaware’s primary is pretty late – April 26th in 2016 – so it may not matter at all.

Corey: Still thinking that the quickest way to end the shutdown is a mass TSA/air traffic controller sick-out. Not a strike as that’s illegal but if the global transportation system shuts down, gives the Traitor Turtle an out. This is purely about his ’20 re-election b/c of how tightly the KY GOP supports Dump.
Keith Law: I’d imagine many wealthy people who have supported the GOP on tax policies and the massive rollback of environmental and labor protections will be very unhappy if their flights are cancelled or delayed.

C: Is kikuchi a prospect or a veteran? How should a prospect be defined by a ranking service? Mlb experience or should age/professional (non minor league) experience effect if they are ranked in prospect rankings?
Keith Law: He played in a major league. He’s not a prospect. I do not rank NPB or KBO veterans.

Kurt: Are the Nats better this year than last? I’m not doing the, “better without Harper” thing…but if you had to guess, this roster will win more than 82 games, right?
Keith Law: Yes, they’re better. If they re-sign Harper after all, they’re the favorites in the East.

Jerry: Assuming no catastrophes (Bregman, Correa career-ending injuries, etc) how long do you think the Astros window of contention is open for?
Keith Law: I’d say another 4-5 years. The system is still above the median for me.

Justin R: How do you motivate yourself to write? I have outlined and planned novels for years but when it comes time to actually write a chapter, I freeze up.
Keith Law: Write something else first. Anything. A journal, a blog post, a letter to nobody. Then don’t stop – move right into writing your chapters.

John: I don’t know if you’ve read this, but I keep telling everyone. In the past election only 5% of americans voted for Trump or Hillary in the primaries. 5% of people decided the two people that could be our next president. VOTE IN PRIMARIES.
Keith Law: I hadn’t but it doesn’t surprise me. The Iowa Caucuses are the dumbest thing in our country’s dumb politics.

Kyle KS: What’s the reason behind the general lack of support for Rolen? Better hitter and defender than Vizquel but nowhere near the votes.
Keith Law: There’s a weird mythology around Vizquel from people who watched him and think they saw a much better defender than they actually saw.

Jim: How do you possibly deny that you are a leftist?
Keith Law: People call me a “leftist” because I think science is real, all people deserve equal treatment under the law, and we should base policies on evidence. Well slap my knee and call me Karl.
Keith Law: Thank you all for reading this week. The prospect package does indeed begin on Monday with the “just missed” list. I’ll chat next week to take your questions on the top 100, and then the farm rankings and org reports go up the following week. Thanks again and enjoy your weekends.