→ March 22, 2024
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Arizona eats, March 2024.

So the most interesting meal I had on the trip wasn’t because of the food, but because two days after I ate at Cocina Madrigal, a kitchen fire broke out and closed the restaurant indefinitely. There were no injuries, and the structure was intact, so I’m hoping they won’t be closed for long. It’s a taqueria and tequileria that just does what it does exceptionally well – scratch tacos, enchiladas, and a few other items with very high-quality inputs. The tropical fish tacos came with a roasted salsa, a slaw of coconut, cabbage, and mango; and a mild chipotle aioli, and the fish was grilled, not fried, so I stumbled into the most healthful meal I had all week. I think the fish was mahi-mahi, but they didn’t identify it on the menu; it was very fresh, whatever it was, as were all of the vegetables, and the corn tortillas were some of the best I’ve had. Nana in Durham has long held that particular crown for fresh corn tortillas, but they have some competition here – these were still soft and tender even with some browning from the grill. I’m not even sure I’d even try anything else on the menu. Good luck to Chef Leo Madrigal in reopening soon.

Cocina Chiwas is the new full-service restaurant from Nadia Holguin and Armando Hernandez, the owners of the wildly successful Tacos Chiwas mini-chain in the Valley, and this rivals Bacanora and Barrio Café as the best high-end Mexican restaurant in the Valley. I went there with a pair of friends, so I tried quite a few dishes, with zero misses in the group. The elote is straightforward, but also a perfect exemplar of the popular grilled-corn dish. The asado de puerco (pork spare ribs) come with a rich, earthy chile colorado sauce along with beans, rice, and tortillas, but honestly I would put that sauce on anything. The oysters come with a jamaica and habanero mignonette, less spicy than you’d expect, more like a strong red wine vinaigrette because the astringency of the hibiscus. The “chile con queso” was not what I expected – it was roasted peppers, tomatoes, and onions with a topping of two mild white Mexican cheeses, and even as someone who’s not a huge fan of cow’s-milk cheese, I was all over this because the vegetables were so good and the cheese was an accent rather than the dominant flavor. And the carrot-cake tres leches with candied pecans and a berry compote was superb – by that point, I’d had enough to eat and drink that I needed a dessert with some punch to get through, and this offered it with plenty of sweetness plus some tang from the berries and bitterness from the cajeta (caramel) sauce. If I have a nit to pick, I didn’t love either cocktail I tried – their takes on a Manhattan and an Old-fashioned, both of which were fine but didn’t improve on the originals. Both drinks had a smoky flavor that overtook the rest of the ingredients.

Espiritu Mesa is the new East Valley outpost from the folks behind Bacanora, which might be the best restaurant in the Valley based on locals’ opinions plus my one time eating there. The drinks here were well ahead of the food, for better or worse. Their ceviche changes often, so what I got may not be what you get if you go this week, but I will vouch for the freshness of the fish and a tangy soy-lime base; it came with sliced radish and a lot of cilantro. The aguacate was just a big ol’ thing of guacamole, served with enormous chicharrones that were really hard to break or chew. I’d either skip that or ask for tortilla chips. You could have made a coat out of all of the pig’s skin on that plate. You’re really here for the drinks – you get a little book of their various signature cocktails, with lists of ingredients, descriptions of the flavors, and ratings by bitterness, booziness, sourness, and sweetness. I had two cocktails, the Maduro and the Desu Notu. The Maduro has charanda (a white rum from Mexico), reposado tequila, crème de banana, cocchi Americano (a bitter aperitif), and blackstrap and chocolate bitters. The Desu Noto (Death note) also has charanda and crème de banana, along with bacanora, an agave-based spirit similar to mezcal, along with palm sugar and chocolate bitters. I preferred the Desu Noto, which wasn’t as sweet and let the flavors of the two liquors come through more, although I’d gladly have either again.

Vecina calls its cuisine “Modern American, Latin-inspired,” and I have no idea what that even means, but the food was good so they can call themselves Tralfamadorian for all I care. This was my last meal before departing, so I was trying to keep it light after eating and drinking too much all week. The ceviche was classic Peruvian-style, marinated in leche de tigre (lime, garlic, onion, chile, fish stock) and tossed with some grilled pineapple and other veg, served with tortilla chips. I’m an easy mark for ceviche as long as the fish is fresh, and this was. The charred broccoli with cashew crema, fermented honey, and Thai sauce (again, not sure what that means other than that there was definitely fish sauce involved) was a new way of serving what is probably my favorite vegetable to cook at home, something I’ll try to adapt for the family. The broccolini were indeed lightly charred, but the combination of the other elements made for a sauce that was sweet, tangy, heavy on umami, and slightly fatty to cut any bitterness in the brassica itself. I had debated that versus the shaved Brussels sprouts, but that dish had dates and I have had two very odd allergic reactions to date syrup so I’m a little wary of them. I made a good call here. One note – parking is scarce and you may end up in a nearby lot.

Hodori is in a Mesa strip mall that’s a sort of ASEAN of food – there’s a Thai place, a Chinese place, two Japanese places, as well as this bare-bones Korean restaurant that serves various bulgogi and soft-tofu dishes. I went with some friends and we shared four dishes – a kimchi pancake, a seafood-scallion pancake, pork bulgogi, and seafood bibimbap. The seafood-scallion pancake won out for me, primarily because the kimchi pancake was so tangy and didn’t have enough to balance out the spice and the sourness. The pork bulgogi was also pretty spicy but the sauce had enough sweetness and umami (there’s usually soy sauce and some fermented product like gochujang in bulgogi) that the heat didn’t overtake the dish, and the pork was extremely tender. The total tab for all three of us, including some shoju and beer, was about $70 before tip.

I’m loyal to my breakfast spots – the Hillside Spot, Crepe Bar, and Matt’s Big Breakfast, all of which I hit while in Phoenix – but did try one new one in Ollie Vaughn’s, meeting my longtime friend (literally – I think we’ve been friends for 15+ years now) Nick Piecoro there. Their sausage and biscuit sandwich, with egg, cheese, and jalapeño marmalade on a buttermilk biscuit is a tremendous amount of food, and the biscuit just fell apart by the time I was halfway through it, but I have zero regrets. They use Schreiner’s sausage, the best sausage vendor in the Valley that I know.

Lom Wong was the one mildly disappointing meal of the trip, although it’s more about my palate than the food at this acclaimed northern Thai restaurant, where many of the recipes come from the chef’s extended family across Thailand. The green mango salad was pretty incredible, better than any similar dish (usually green papaya) I’ve ever had, with fried shallots, toasted coconuts and peanuts, a dressing of coconut milk, lime, and fish sauce, and “hand-torn” shrimp, which, well, I hope they were dead first? I ordered the arai kodai, in which the server picks dishes for you based on what you indicate you do/don’t like and your spice tolerance, but even after saying mine was pretty low, I ended up with a chicken dish that had just been added to the menu, very similar to larb gai, that tasted only of chile pepper and a little of cumin, which gave it the overall vibe of spicy dirt. I did enjoy the Three Kings cocktail, with dark rum, dry curaçao, fernet (an Italian amaro that’s very herbal), guava, palm sugar, and what I assume is a bitters from Som, founded by the chef-owner of Portland’s legendary Thai restaurant Pok Pok. It’s reminiscent of Caribbean rum cocktails, but far less sweet and cloying.

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→ March 16, 2024
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Stick to baseball, 3/16/24.

For subscribers to the Athletic this week, I wrote up the players I saw in the Reds-Rangers Breakout Game plus a few other notes from Arizona, broke down the Dylan Cease trade, and posted a ranking of the top 20 prospects for likely impact in 2024, and offered a draft scouting notebook from the Wake Forest-Duke series. I’ll have some more Breakout game reports after the weekend, but unfortunately the two games I hoped to hit on Friday were both washed out by rain.

I sent out a new edition of my free email newsletter earlier this week. 

And now, the links…

  • Longreads first: Judd Blevins is a white nationalist. The town of Enid, Oklahoma, voted him on to their city council, but there’s a fight brewing now to remove him. Blevins refuses to address his history with Identity Evropa, a major white nationalist organization, instead hiding behind “God” and religion.
  • Oregon moved to recriminalize possession of hard drugs, notably fentanyl and heroin, three years after decriminalizing it. Note that several quotes here are from Republican representatives talking about fentanyl (a popular GOP talking point) and Portland (which they do not represent).
  • This year’s FAFSA roll-out and the new rules that led to the changes in the federal student-aid forms have all been a huge disaster that may force some schools to delay enrollment deadlines.
  • Allowing kids to get the measles, the mumps, or rubella just to satisfy some lunatic’s political goals is needlessly cruel, but the cruelty is the point, isn’t it?
  • Medici is one of Reiner Knizia’s most acclaimed games, part of his so-called Auction Trilogy with Ra and Modern Art, but it’s been out of print for several years now. Steamforged announced they’re taking pre-orders for a new edition coming out this year.

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→ March 13, 2024
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Filterworld.

In his new book Filterworld: How Algorithms Flattened Culture, journalist Kyle Chayka details the myriad ways in which we are thrust towards homogeneity in music, television, movies, books, and even architecture and travel because, in his view, of the tyranny of the algorithm. The book is more of a polemic than a work of research, filled with personal anecdotes and quotes from philosophers as well as observers of culture, and while Chayka is somewhat correct in that a small number of companies are now determining what people watch, listen to, and read, that’s always been true – it’s just happening now by algorithm when technology was supposed to democratize access to culture.

Chayka’s premise is sound on its surface: Major tech companies now depend on maintaining your attention to hold or increase revenues, and they do that via algorithm. Netflix’s algorithm keeps recommending movies and shows it believes you’ll watch – not that you will like, but that you will watch, or at least not turn off – thus keeping you as a customer. Spotify’s auto-generated playlists largely serve you artists and songs that are similar to ones you’ve already liked, or at least have already listened to, as I’ve learned recently because I listened to one song by the rapper Werdperfect that a friend sent me and now Spotify puts Werdperfect on every god damned playlist it makes for me. Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Tiktok, and their ilk all use algorithms to show you what will keep you engaged, not what you asked to see via your following list. Amazon’s recommendations are more straightforward, giving you products its algorithm thinks you’ll buy based on other things you’ve bought.

Chayka goes one further, though, arguing that algorithmic tyranny extends into meatspace, using it to explain the ubiquity of Brooklyn-style coffee shops, with sparse décor, subway tiles, exposed wood, and industrial lighting. He uses it to explain homogeneity in Airbnb listings, arguing that property owners must determine what the algorithm wants and optimize their spaces to maximize their earnings. He is ultimately arguing that we will all look the same, sound the same, wear the same clothes, live in the same spaces, drink the same expensive lattes, and so on, because of the algorithms.

To this I say: No shit. It’s called capitalism, and the algorithm itself is not the disease, but a symptom.

Businesses exist to make money, and in a competitive marketplace, that’s generally a good thing – it drives innovation and forces individual companies to respond to customer demand or lose market share to competitors. These market forces led to the advent of mass production over a century ago, a process that depended on relatively uniform tastes across a broad spectrum of consumers, because mass-producing anything economically depends on that uniformity. You can’t mass-produce custom clothes, by definition. Companies that have invested heavily in capital to mass produce their widgets will then work to further expand their customer base by encouraging homogeneity in tastes – thus the push for certain fashions to be “in” this year (as they were twenty years prior), or the marketing put behind specific books or songs or movies to try to gain mass adoption. Coffee shops adopt similar looks because customers like that familiarity, for the same reason that McDonald’s became a global giant – you walk into any McDonald’s in the world and you by and large know what to expect, from how it looks to what’s on the menu. This isn’t new. In fact, the idea of the algorithm isn’t even new; it is the technology that is new, as companies can implement their algorithms at a speed and scale that was unthinkable two decades earlier.

Furthermore, we are living in a time of limited competition, closer to what our forefathers faced in the trust era than what our parents faced in the 1980s. There is no comparably-sized competitor to Amazon. Spotify dominates music streaming. Each social media entity I listed earlier has no direct competition; they compete with each other, but each serves a different need or desire from consumers. The decline of U.S. antitrust enforcement since the Reagan era has exacerbated the problem. Fewer producers will indeed produce less variety in products.

However, the same technology that Chayka decries throughout Filterworld has flattened more than culture – it has flattened the hierarchy that led to homogeneity in culture from the 1950s through the 1990s. Music was forced, kicking and screaming, to give up its bundling practice, where you could purchase only a few individual songs but otherwise had to purchase entire albums to hear specific titles, by Napster and other file-sharing software products. Now, through streaming services, not only can any artist bypass the traditional record-label gatekeepers, but would-be “curators” can find, identify, and recommend these artists and their songs, the way that only DJs at truly independent radio stations could do in earlier eras. (And yes, I hope that I am one of those curators. My monthly playlists are the product of endless exploration on my own, with a little help from the Spotify algorithm on the Release Radar playlists, but mostly just me messing around and looking for new music.) Goodreads is a hot mess, owned by Amazon and boosting the Colleen Hoovers of the world, but it’s also really easy to find people who read a lot of books and can recommend the ones they like. (Cough.) Movies, food, travel, television, and so on are all now easier to consume, and if you are overwhelmed by the number and variety of choices, it’s easier to find people who can guide you through it. I try to be that type of guide for you when it comes to music and books and board games, and to some extent to restaurants. When it comes to television, I read Alan Sepinwall. When it comes to movies, I listen to Will Leitch & Tim Grierson, and I read Christy Lemire, and I bother Chris Crawford. I also just talk to my friends and see what they like. I have book friends, movie friends, game friends, coffee friends, rum friends, and so on. The algorithms, and the companies that deploy them, don’t decide for me because I made the very easy choice to decide for myself.

So I didn’t really buy Chayka’s conclusions in Filterworld, even though I thought the premise was sound and deserved this sort of exploration. I also found the writing in the book to be dull, unfortunately, with the sort of dry quality of academic writing without the sort of rigor that you might see in a research paper. I could have lived with that if he’d sold me better on his arguments, but he gives too little attention to points that might truly matter, such as privacy regulations in the E.U. and the lack thereof in the U.S., and too much weight to algorithms that will only affect your life if you let them.

Next up: Angela Carter’s The Magic Toyshop.

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→ March 12, 2024
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Amerikatsi.

Michael Goorjian’s Amerikatsi is a dramatic farce that explores two dark periods in Armenia’s history through the eyes of one man who manages to maintain a sense of hope even when his fellow man is cruel to him and fate is crueler. It’s a testament to our humanity and our ability to survive even in awful conditions, and an indictment of the systems and the people that make these conditions possible. It’s a beautiful, funny, heartfelt movie that deserves a much wider audience. (You can rent it on amazon, iTunes, etc.)

Charlie (played by Goorjian, who also wrote and directed the film) escapes the Armenian genocide of 1918 when his grandmother hides him in a cart, allowing him to escape execution at the hands of the Turks. Then just four years old, he ends up in the United States, but after World War II, when Josef Stalin called for Armenian expatriates to return home to held rebuild the country, Charlie does so, only to end up wrongly accused of being either an American spy or a capitalist pig or both, after which he’s sentenced to hard labor. From his cold prison cell, he can see into a nearby apartment, and he watches their lives as if it’s his daily soap opera, becoming invested in their relationship and in the man’s secret passion for art, leading Charlie to reach out and try to make a connection across an impossible boundary.

Much of what happens around Charlie is absurdist comedy, part Kafka, part Iannucci, and you have to just accept that he’s going to end up in prison despite the ridiculous circumstances that land him there. He barely speaks Armenian when he returns to the Caucasus and speaks no Russian, so any attempts to save himself after he’s arrested go nowhere, and he’s the butt of many jokes among the guards and even fellow prisoners, at least at first. He’s even thrown in the “icebox,” a storage room that’s especially cold in winter, yet over time he makes it his own space, at least, and jury-rigs contraptions like a clothesline or a way to sit at the high window and eat his meals while watching his neighbors, even writing down some of their customs like the order of the toasts after a big dinner. (Apparently, one of them is to Mount Ararat, a volcano in easternmost Turkey that is a symbol of Armenian culture and heritage.)

Charlie is an optimist, but not a fool, which is key to making this character work. He has hope, and it appears that nothing can truly extinguish it, but he isn’t blind to his situation; he hopes that there’s something better to come, not that someone will come save him from his current state. Goorjian plays him with such an earnestness that it’s easy to believe in the character, that Charlie could still find joy in small things, and that he’d take the risks he does take to get a message to his neighbor – who turns out to be a more important person than Charlie realizes – just to help another human. The guards call him “Charlie Chaplin,” an overt nod to the tramp-like qualities of the character, with Goorjian occasionally mimicking Chaplin’s walk in the film. The Tramp can be childlike and credulous, but his heart and his ingenuity win the day, which is a good summary of how this Charlie wins out in the end as well.

The score for Amerikatsi, by Armenian composer Andranik Berberyan,is exceptional, with folk music mixed with ambient music to provide some depth and color to what could otherwise have been very bland and grey scenes of Charlie in his prison. There’s also a familiar name in the credits, as the movie was executive produced by Serj Tankian of System of a Down, who also is listed under “additional music.”

Amerikatsi was Armenia’s entry for this year’s Academy Award for Best International Feature Film, and became the first Armenian film to make the shortlist, although it didn’t make the final cut of five nominees. I can’t say it deserved a nod, as I haven’t seen any of the five yet, but if they’re all better than this one, then 2023 might have been the best year in film history. Amerikatsi tells a simple if ridiculous story, and in so doing it gives us glimpses into Armenian history and epitomizes the strength of a people who’ve been victims of their neighboring aggressors for over a hundred years.

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→ March 9, 2024
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Stick to baseball, 03/09/24.

For subscribers to the Athletic, I published a ranking of the top 30 prospects for this year’s MLB Draft, after which my #1 guy, Charlie Condon, hit two more homers for Georgia. I also posted a draft scouting notebook, covering Braden Montgomery, Brody Brecht, Anthony Silva, and P.J. Morlando. And I held a Klawchat to take your draft questions.

Over at Paste, I reviewed the cooperative game Stranger Things: Upside Down, a way better tie-in title than the Stranger Things game published in 2022. It’s by Rob Daviau, the co-founder of Restoration Games and inventor of the legacy game concept.

I’m working on getting back to weekly editions of my free email newsletter. This last one was about my trip to Texas and the way Republican candidates there are weaponizing hate against one of the most vulnerable minorities in the U.S. to try to earn a few more votes. Please clap.

And now, the links…

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→ March 7, 2024
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Klawchat 3/7/24.

My ranking of the top 30 prospects for this year’s MLB draft is now up for subscribers to The Athletic.

Keith Law: A little bit better than I used to be. Klawchat.

Bob Pollard: Do you think the Giants will have Harrison on an innings limit, or does that not even matter since barely any starter pitches even 180 innings anymore?
Keith Law: My guess is it will happen organically – he’s not likely to work very deep into games anyway because he’ll run some higher pitch counts with a lot of strikeouts and walks.

John: Keith, if you were Cleveland, as the top of the draft looks right now. Would you take the one of the top 3-5 players who was willing to sign for the least amount or do you think there is enough of a talent difference to set your sights on one guy.
Keith Law: I would probably shop a deal to 2-3 players, but you still want to figure out who the #1 guy is and maybe you offer him a deal for more than your #2 guy. I don’t think this is the year you go full slot at 1.

Eric: Have you read any Dan Jones history books? I’m reading “Powers and Thrones” about the middle ages, and it is absolutely fantastic. Makes reading about what could be VERY dense subject matter very approachable.
Keith Law: the Da Vinci Code guy? I have not. I read that and woof, I was out.

Eric: Eury Perez: Future Cy Young winner?
Keith Law: Has the potential, but hasn’t had the track record of durability yet.

Marcos: Love your work Keith, you’re the primary reason that I maintain an Athletic subscription. Quick question about James Wood, I know that he has a decent amount to prove with his respect to making contact consistently at the higher levels of the sport, but to my eye, he looks like one of the 10 most gifted players in baseball at any level. Do you view him as having a De La Cruz type of ceiling, and if he puts it all together, do you think he’s an MVP caliber type at the next level?
Keith Law: The power-speed-defense are all elite, but I think he’s going to swing and miss enough to keep him from becoming an MVP-type player. He’s got a huge strike zone and struggled last year with fastballs up in the zone and sliders down in or below it. It’s hard for guys that big to cover that much territory – Judge is the great exception.

Paul: Brady House looks about as toolsy as they get, do you see All star level upside with him?
Keith Law: I disagree – he’s not very toolsy at all. He’s not a runner, he’s not a great defender, and he’s not all twitched up. What he does do, however, is hit the ball extremely hard, and I believe he has more feel to hit than he’s gotten credit for.

Mike: AJ puk apparently stretching out as a starter, think he can be a solid mid rotation SP?
Keith Law: I do not. He hasn’t stayed healthy for a full year since college.

Mike: Think Jared Jones breaks camp w pitt? Also, are you concerned with how hard he throws despite not being a massive guy?
Keith Law: I don’t, and I’m not.

Dr. Bob: Excited to see that a Caldwell made the list. Maybe I can follow his career and find out if we’re related. What’s that? He’s only 5-5 1/2? Never mind. We’re not related to the Arkansas Caldwells anyway.
Keith Law: Pretty funny that he’s listed at 5’8″. He was measured at East Coast Pro last year. Just own it, Slade. Join us on team Fun-Sized.

Nick: If Justin Crawford lifts the ball more this year and shows plus raw power, is he in the top-5 prospect conversation next year?
Keith Law: I’d rather say he’ll be much higher next year if he does that.
Keith Law: Top 5 depends on what happens with a whole host of other players, too.

Wallace: Robert Hassell physically looks stronger during this camp, do you maintain any hope that he can become an above average regular?
Keith Law: I’m more concerned with his contact quality and his swing decisions than how he looks.

Jon: Cleveland’s failed attempts to develop a young RH bat date back to the Matt LaPorta trade.  In a draft that could be underwhelming, would it make sense to skew towards Condon given his profile and potential for a quick rise to Cleveland?
Keith Law: No, I’d just go for the best player on the best deal. I happen to think Condon’s the best player, but I wouldn’t say Cleveland should like him more for any specific reason … that’s how you end up passing on a better player.

Jack: Jeff Passan had some incredibly glowing things to say about Cole Ragans and his Spring Training performance, noting an evaluator likened him to a “left handed DeGrom” – is there real #1 starter potential with him?
Keith Law: I would have said #2, but I’m a big fan – I had him on my breakouts article last March. He’s legit.

Eric: My 5 year old started t-ball this season. He loves playing, and I want him to get more interested in baseball as a whole. What would be a good entry point, other than YouTube highlight videos?
Keith Law: Isn’t the best answer just watching more games? Maybe going to some minor league or college games near you, or watching archived games on MLB.tv, something to accommodate what I assume is an early bed time. I think baseball is a sport you learn to like through experience – one great play or moment probably doesn’t convert a kid.

Jeff: How much of a make or break year do you think this is for Henry Davis with the chance to be the everyday catcher?  The RF experiment last year was not great and some scouts wondered if he could stick behind the plate.  If he struggles is his bat good enough to be an everyday DH?
Keith Law: I think he can catch, but I also think he has to show it this year. He’s going to get a long look. Right field wasn’t good, unsurprising since he had maybe 20 games of experience there total, but his value in the draft was that he was a catcher who could hit (and really, really throw).

Andy: This looks to be one of the worst drafts in recent history for true superstar players. Is the depth beyond the top 30 (or 100) good or is this just a year where you draft for a decent floor and look for ceiling elsewhere?
Keith Law: Nah, it’s just not a great draft. The HS position player crop is way down from last year and below the norm, so I expect a lot of good-not-great college players will get pushed into the first.

Turner: Thank you for the chat! I’m no longer on twitter or X and that’s how I used to know about your chats. I just checked your blog on a whim for today. What is the best way to find out about your chats in the future? Understanding that you don’t schedule them far in advance.
Keith Law: I post them on Threads, BlueSky, Spoutible, and Facebook. I’ll see about a more regular schedule once I have a better sense of my travel for the spring.

Van: For the 2024 draft, is a top tier starting to come together? Who’s pulling ahead so far?
Keith Law: I just posted a ranking this morning.

Andy: How many times have you added a K to Mike Sirota’s name?
Keith Law: It’s when I say it. I want to call him Sirotka or just si-RAHT-uh.

Tyler: Hi Keith, 2 unrelated questions for you: 1) Would you say this is a good year to the number 2 pick? Asking as a Reds fan. And, 2) Do you believe that developing plate discipline is something that can be done? Just curious because I’ve seen conflicting opinions on this but limited data.
Keith Law: It’s not a good year to pick high. I think some players can develop plate discipline, like we’ve seen with Austin Riley or Adolis Garcia, but for the majority of players it’s a lot of wishful thinking.
Keith Law: You always have to try if you’re in player development. It’s just much easier said than done. Oh, stop swinging at sliders out of the zone? Well, sure, everyone is supposed to know that, but few can execute.

JG: All else being equal, if it comes down to extending either Bregman or Tucker, the easy answer is Tucker, isn’t it?
Keith Law: Yes, because of age.

Cooperberg: Can spring training breakouts – like what James Wood has done so far – mean anything or is it all wait and see until the real games start?
Keith Law: Absolutely nothing. Pitchers are working on stuff. Managers aren’t trying to win. You might face a big leaguer in the first at bat and an A-ball guy in the third at bat.

Eric: Why is the name Jackson such a precursor to being a top prospect nowadays?
Keith Law: Because it was a very popular boy’s name in the mid-2000s.

Thomas: Who do you have more confidence in moving forward – Matt Manning or Casey Mize?
Keith Law: Mize.

Jerry: Hey huge fan been following since ESPN. Now subscribe with the athletic because of you. But getting to prospects. First question is Vanderbilt baseball any good this year? Don’t see anyone on your top 30 which is weird for them or they just underclass guys and will be on board next year?
Keith Law: They might be a good college team, but they do not have much in the way of 2024 draft prospects. Vastine might be a third rounder, Holton the same if he’s healthy, although he’s off to a rough start.

RAWagman: Hey Keith. Thank for the chats, as always. Which teams’ offseason maneuvering was most befuddling to you? I’m a Blue Jays fan, and theirs was equal parts disappointing and head-scratching, but which teams, if any, were even more so?
Keith Law: I didn’t get the Reds adding Jeimer Candelario rather than starting pitching depth. I’m also not sure what the Angels’ direction is – it feels like they’re no better off than they were last year.

Andy: At what age do you (as a scout) start hearing about high schoolers? Obviously, if it’s a Bryce Harper type, you hear about it earlier, but do you hear much about the top sophomores (2026 draft available) now? College players we can see as first years and follow them and see their adjustments, does the same thing happen with high schoolers in the scouting world?
Keith Law: I usually don’t hear much about HS players until they’re juniors.

Heather: The Red Sox spent decades as a big market team.  Now that they’ve decided to be Tampa North instead, ownership is trying to sell the fans on, “Just wait until Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kyle Teel are on the team in 2026 … then we’ll spend!”  Are they really that good?   We’re just going to ignore for the moment that none of them is a pitcher.
Keith Law: I think those three are all very good to elite prospects. I think your notes about their lack of pitching in the system and ownership’s sudden decision to treat the team like a cash cow are both well-considered.

Colton: I found your newsletter on trans stuff in Texas to be lacking. You say that gender ideology is harmless, despite the fact that the elimination of female-only spaces creates a danger to females in prison, for instance. Children are being sterilized (pause for a moment and think of the implications of the phrase “puberty blocker”). The very concept of a “gender identity” is an extreme belief in and of itself.
Keith Law: So I deleted the last half of this message because it descended into further anti-trans bullshit. You don’t even understand the difference between sterilization, a permanent procedure with a long history in this country of use against people suspected of mental illness and racial minorities, and puberty blockers, safe and temporary medical treatment that comes under the care of a doctor. You also are at least 70 years behind on gender identity, and that’s just in the west, as gender identity has history going back thousands of years in non-white European cultures. You’re barely even masking your hatred of trans people behind inaccurate rhetoric.

CVD: With the changes to service time- should James Wood make the opening day roster to increase chances of ROY liklihood?  Or is he not ready so keep him down for another year of control?
Keith Law: oh HELL no. He was in double A for less than half of 2023 and struggled with contact there.

Gordon: Hi Keith! If you could cover any other sport what would it be and why?
Keith Law: No.

Jakey: Why so few HS prospects? Is it the Covid effect or something else?
Keith Law: Just a down year. It’s just random.

Jackie: Who’s winning the ROY awards?
Keith Law: I’ll do predictions the last week of ST. Depends a lot on who makes OD rosters.

SJ: It looks like Quinn Priester’s velocity is up a few MPH this spring. What’s your outlook on him at this point?
Keith Law: I don’t buy those spikes until the pitchers are working a little deeper into games. Higher velo in 1-2 innings may translate into higher velo in 5-7, but it might be a guy airing it out to win a roster spot.

Aaron G: Jackson Holliday – June/July callup? Or full season at AAA?
Keith Law: If they have a spot, he’ll be up in June or July. I could also see them having no room for him.
Keith Law: Well, I guess that’s not quite right – he’s going to be better than almost anyone he replaces except Gunnar. But they may not dislodge an incumbent unless Holliday is laying waste to AAA pitching.

Tracy: Here in Chicago we have an owner who’s got his hand out (again!) looking for taxpayer dollars to fund a new stadium, even though he already has one. Jerry Reinsdorf has single-handedly ruined the White Sox franchise, refusing to spend enough money to elevate the organization so it can be consistently competitive in the 21st century. Fans here are mostly outraged by his brazenness. This is also happening elsewhere. Owners are once again asking for money that solely benefits them. Do you think there is a growing national outrage from fans and taxpayers, saying they will no longer support publicly-financed stadiums?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, because these proposals keep passing and legislators who support them keep their jobs. It’s not even party-specific. The entire Tennessee legislature should be dissolved for the money they keep handing sports teams (and MLB will come with its hand out soon enough).

Steve: I see your first question was from Bob Pollard. He’ll probably have 20 more ready by the time this chat is done.
Keith Law: I understood that reference.

Jakey: James Outman has become a good player on a top team. I know “don’t scout the stat line” but in HS he barely hit .300 and in college he was at .249. How does a scout see a player like that and know they have a chance to be a big league regular?
Keith Law: Big bet on athleticism + that focusing just on baseball would help him. Great move for a later pick.

Kyle: Hi Keith – Thanks for the update this AM.. Twins are interesting with picks at 21 and 33. With the lack of prep talent, could you see them buying 2 college arms with those picks (Santucci, Yesavage, Brecht, etc) and then spreading $ on prep later?
Keith Law: Why not?

Eric: Re: Dan Jones – no, not da vinci. That’s Dan Brown. Dan Jones is a legit historian
Keith Law: You’re right, brain cramp here. Obviously I have never heard of Dan Jones, although that may be my failure.

Jakey: How long do you think the Morel at 3b experiment lasts?
Keith Law: He’s really not good there. I imagine less than half a season.

Mike: I just dont see how brody brect can be so high when he walks so many.
Keith Law: It’s primarily a bet that he’s so athletic and so inexperienced (having played football as well) that he’ll continue to improve his control and command with more reps and pro coaching. His delivery is fine – it’s certainly not why he walked so many guys last year – but he throws so hard and his arm is so fast that he hasn’t really learned to manage it. If he walks nearly 20% of batters again this year, he’ll drop to the end of the first round or out of it. He has walked fewer guys the last two outings, and I think being a full-time baseball player is going to yield some short-term improvement.

Zirinsky: Hi Keith. Obviously pitching metrics/labs are much more advanced than hitting metrics at this stage (at least in terms of allowing players to “improve”). Is this simply due to how different pitching/hitting are OR is there some potential advancement coming that will allow hitters to catch up in this space?
Keith Law: I think many hitting labs/coaches focus too much on single metrics of power or contact quality, like EV or launch angle, when there’s often a more fundamental problem at play like pitch or ball/strike recognition. There are certainly teams and coaches that work on the latter, but there seems to be more approaches at work here than there are for pitchers.

Kevin: Thoughts on the Bello extension? Upside of a potential #2?
Keith Law: Love him and yes.

Ryan: You’re a fan of power metal, right? Have you ever heard of Unleash the Archers? Big fan. The singer’s voice is incredible.
Keith Law: I would say yes … old-school thrash will never get old for me. I was listening to some Power Trip the other day and I love the music, although the late singer’s voice was too abrasive for me and too forward in the mix. (I can deal with some pretty abrasive vocals when they’re mixed lower, behind the guitars.)

AK: Hey Keith, just picked up Wingspan and have no idea wtf is going on. Any good advice/tutorials out there to get started?
Ollie: Ryne Nelson has looked really good so far this spring. I’m guessing he’ll win the fifth starter job. Any thoughts on his performance or improved slider?
Keith Law: Spring performance doesn’t mean anything and if his slider is different this year I haven’t seen/heard it. I’ve been a big Nelson fan, though.

Zirinsky: Keith: When is it useful to start looking at results from veteran pitchers in ST? And obviously it’s possible that the answer is “never.”
Keith Law: I just don’t, unless, say, a guy suddenly is walking batters at twice the rate, or has lost his fastball. Something really drastic.

PhillyJake: I’m finally reading Smart Baseball.  Just finished the OPS chapter last night.  I was blown away by the difference of a .400 OBP and .400SLG guy vs. a .300 OPB and .500SLG guy. Thanks for the enlightenment!
Keith Law: Glad you enjoyed it!

Michael: Thanks for doing these chats, Keith! I’ll be in Seattle for the first time in a few weeks. Any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law: Yes, I was there in July for the Futures Game. https://meadowparty.com/blog/2023/07/15/seattle-eats/

Chris: Have you seen “Anatomy of a Fall” yet? Curious what you think.
Keith Law: Not yet. I think we’re going to end up seeing just 7/10 BP nominees before the Oscars, although eventually we’ll get them all.

JR: At what point are Snell and Montgomery at risk for missing start of the season if they haven’t signed? Or are we there already? Seems like an offensive player could be ready in a few days, but a pitcher would need more reps against live batting to get ready.
Keith Law: Yes. I’d say we’re at that point now.

Jacob: Of the two Cal guys, Rodney Green Jr. and Caleb Lomavita, who would you draft first and who do you think gets drafted first?
Keith Law: Only one is on the top 30 today…

Gregory: Telling little boys that they might actually be girls trapped in a boy’s body is, definitionally, grooming.
Keith Law: This is such a fundamental misunderstanding that it makes me despair of the state of our education system. Nobody is “telling” anyone they’re trans, or queer, or anything else. That’s not how any of this works!

James: It seems like Chourio is going to make the opening day roster. What would be your predicted slash line for him over 500-600 PA?
Keith Law: .270/.310/.425. Kind of seeing a slow build, maybe a rough start in April/May, some adjustment period, and a strong finish.

Mike: None prospect question….but the Twins sure are betting a lot on a healthy Paddock and Descalfini after losing Gray. Is this really going to work (in the post season if they get there)?
Keith Law: Paddack has never thrown 150 innings in a professional season, and he’s only made 20 starts in a season twice (2019 and 2021). Banking on him as a starter is irrational.

Eric: the founding fathers would be amazed that two near-octogenarians would be running for president one day. but hey, let’s go crazy
Keith Law: I mean, they would not recognize much of anything in our society, from guns to racial justice to who’s allowed to vote and own land and so on. Also, imagine handing one of them a smartphone.

Jakey: I found your newsletter on trans stuff in TX to be spot on
Keith Law: Thank you. Leave trans kids alone.

JR: Strong agree with your Killers of the Flower Moon movie review. Loved the book, almost passed on the movie when I saw it was 3.5 hours. Gave it a try and stopped after a slow 30 minutes.

I miss the days when all major movies were released in theaters and had to be a tight 90-120 minutes, with only the occasional special film getting 2.5+ hours. Netflix, Apple, etc., appear to not reign in directors as much and give them blank checks and limited oversight. So the movies ramble on forever.
Keith Law: I’m fine with 3-hour movies if they earn it. Scorsese needed to trim some of the first two hours, in particular. The scene where Mollie’s mother dies stands out as one that, while beautiful on its own, does not progress the story or the development of any core character.

Eric: James Wood >>>>>>>> James Woods
Keith Law: Low bar, but yes.

Luis: Hi Keith, not a question but rather just to thank you for the content and send my condolences for the loss of your  cat to you and your family
Keith Law: Thank you. We actually just adopted two rescued kittens yesterday – neither my wife nor I has been cat-less in over a decade, and with so many kittens needing homes we decided not to wait. Pictures coming soon!

Caleb: Think we can expect a ‘leap’ from Jordan Walker in 2024, or am I thinking a year too early?
Keith Law: He might be on the breakouts list this year.

David: You planning any trips to Winston-Salem this year to check out Wake Forest players before the draft?
Keith Law: At least once, I think.

Robert: Have you ever had to put a pet down? We just put our 15 year old dog down, and my family is asking for another dog, but I don’t see if/when I’ll ever be ready for another. He was such a good boy.
Keith Law: I just did that last month, and wrote about it in the newsletter. I’ve had to put four cats down myself – as in, I was the one at the vet making the call. It never, ever gets easier.

Ken from Entertainment 720: Hey Keith.  My wife is a die hard O’s fan but isnt a fan of Westburg.  I happen to be a fan of his.  If i say he from ages 26-32 can be a .275 hitter with a 785-815 OPS with 40 doubles and 15-20 home runs.  How wrong am I?  He feels like Robby Thompson 2.0 (old Giant’s second baseman).
Keith Law: Yeah I’m with you. I see a regular for someone.

Andy: We all know the playoffs are a crapshoot, but the last time a Central team made the World Series, it was Cubs-Cleveland. It isn’t like those teams are making huge splashed this winter either. People always complain about “East Coast bias”, but at the early evening timeslot, there just isn’t anything appealing about most of the Central teams.
Keith Law: The two Centrals are by far the lowest-populated divisions, right? Chicago’s the only large city in either Central, and one of the Chicago teams acts like they play in Peoria.

Eric: Nick Senzel had a decent rookie yr, and of course a 1st round pedigree, but hasnt really hit since then.   Any chance he can be a late bloomer?
Keith Law: Never give up on a guy with that background but he’s had a lot of injury issues & more.

Robert: All the people who love to say things like Babe Ruth is the best ever, I’d love to see Babe Ruth’s reaction if Shohei time traveled to play in the majors with him
Keith Law: He’d probably respond with a racial slur.

Dan: Who will you have your eyes on on the Cape this summer?
Keith Law: I have absolutely no idea who’s playing on the Cape this summer.

Robert: that anti-trans guy sounds like such a … snowflake
Keith Law: They’re incredibly soft.

Dee: Another hammy for Madrigal. He’s just never going to play 140 games right?
Keith Law: I think he could play 140 games at some point but won’t hit enough for it to matter. Where are all the White Sox fans mad I left him off my top 100?

Todd Boss: Opening Quote: “Live Wire,” by Motley Crue?
Keith Law: Still their best song.

Dave: Keith, with Bellinger and Busch getting the lion share of work at CF and 1b respectively, should a young Armstrong get more seasoning and force the issue down the road if he rakes in AAA, or is his defense alone accretive to afford a shuffling of those three between CF/1B/DH (include Morel and 3B in that rotation ?)
Keith Law: I’d start PCA in AAA with the mandate to maximize contact and get out of this pull orientation. There will be opportunities for him at some point this year, even if it’s just like you suggest, with Busch moving to DH and Belli at 1b.

Ernesto: Do you feel like we are witnessing the beginning of the end of American democracy? It sure feels like it with extremists getting elected and the supreme courts playing calvinball with their decisions. The fact an insurrectionist is even allowed to run for office says a lot. Unless there is a total wipeout this election cycle I dont like our chances.
Keith Law: I do. I am especially dismayed at how much of the media, including mainstream, national media outlets, seem unaware that they are bothsidesing a contest that is very much uneven in its import and consequences.

Jason: Brooks Lee has looked great in spring training. any chance he makes the opening day roster? move Julien to 1st and slide Lee to 2nd?
Keith Law: Also would be very foolish.

Dr. Bob: RE: Owners asking for handouts. The only time I remember the fans helping sinking potential deals for a team were the mid-1990s Rams. Georgia had run that team so far into the ground that when the move to STL was announced, most fan reaction was, “Can we help you pack?” Even thought they’re bad deals for the taxpayers, fans always support them.
Keith Law: Fans are vocal. Opponents aren’t. If you live in a state or county about to subsidize some billionaire’s playground, you need to make your voice heard.

Jason: Best placement of the flag in Stratego?  “Traditionally” people surround with bombs near the back row.   Any thought to a random spot?
Keith Law: I actually haven’t played it in ~35 years.

Guest: Is JD Davis a reasonable upgrade for the Cubs?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Todd Boss: A blogger in the Washington Nationals blogosphere made a pretty cogent argument that the Nationals should be treated as a small market team, just as the Baltimore Orioles are, based on MASN RSN revenue. They received less RSN money than Seattle, Arizona, and Pittsburgh, but those teams all get comp draft picks for being “small markets.”  This also cost them the #1 pick this year, when they had to forfeit their lottery win.  Is this fair?
Keith Law: It’s a reasonable argument but I don’t know what their other revenues look like.

Dee: Sharing The Gender Dysphoria Bible, seems we have some folks who need to read it.

https://genderdysphoria.fyi/en
Keith Law: Bookmarking, thank you.

Tom: That Anthony Rendon doesn’t consider his job to be the most important thing in his life doesn’t concern me. I presume most people feel this way about their jobs and heck, I imagine more than a few pro athletes aren’t actually playing their favorite sport. What concerns me is Rendon isn’t particularly good at his job and hasn’t been for a while, and it’s yet another example of why the Angels are in this endless abyss they show few signs of climbing out any time soon.
Keith Law: Right. You don’t have to love your job to be good at it! But you do have to put in the work.

Justin: What continues to boggle the mind is how people can look at an incredibly vulnerable population (1 in 4 attempt suicide) and decide, “Yes, I want to make life harder for them.” No real question, it’s just infuriating.
Keith Law: It is infuriating, and makes me particularly disdainful of the people and the niche groups promulgating this mentality.

Chris: Keith, have you had a chance to play The Fox Experiment from Elizabeth Hargrave yet? My family didn’t enjoy it quite as much as Wingspan, but found quite a bit of humor in being able to name the foxes.
Keith Law: It’s on the shelf but still unplayed.

Matt: How does Altuve have so much power? I get why Judge has power. He’s huge. But Altuve is a Smurf.
Keith Law: Height don’t measure power, either. Altuve is shorter than I am, but he’s about twice as wide.

Queer: Trans adults would like to be left alone too
Keith Law: Yes to this too. The assault on trans rights is both inhumane and a threat to everyone’s rights.

Salty: Does Jared Jones give off any Sixto vibes?  Body seems similar, stuff maybe a little different, and I’ve never seen him pitch.  Is he a viable SP or more back-end/relief with two strong pitches currently.
Keith Law: Stronger/better athlete. I will say Sixto blowing out as badly as he did was a surprise, because I have seen very few guys throw 100 that easily.

Matt: If you were Jed Hoyer how would you be approaching this season?
Keith Law: Gleefully?

Matt: Have you ever written or talked publicly about your divorce? And or the role mental health played? As somone with a spouse with mental health challenges i’d love to learn from others experience.
Keith Law: No, because I don’t feel like it’s really my story to tell – there’s another person involved, and her side would differ from mine, while even telling my side would likely compromise her privacy.

Jason: Found it interesting that Angel Martinez was left of your Guardians top 20 .. Reports of a swing adjustment and now hes racking in ST.. Any thoughts ??
Keith Law: He was #11.

Rado: Have you had a chance to experience The Sphere? I’ve never been the biggest U2 fan but i can tell you….its worth it.
Keith Law: Having seen it on TV, I don’t think I’d like it. At best it’s sensory overload. At worst it might give me a migraine.
Keith Law: (cue Gang of Four)

JT: Last year, Salas was a huge story during ST on The Athletic. Is there anyone showcasing themselves similarly this year?
Keith Law: Minor leaguers haven’t started games yet.

Frank: Did Scott Boras overplay his hand this offseason?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. We’ll see what Montgomery ends up with, but Boras’s history with taking free agents deep into the offseason (and beyond) has usually vindicated him. And Bellinger’s free agent case was as odd as it gets – guy gets non-tendered one winter, is an MVP candidate a year later. Who did that last – Jose Bautista?

Jason: Did you see the “We are the World” documentary, and if so what did you think?
Keith Law: It was excellent. So much I didn’t know, even though I was alive and old enough to be aware of much of it, and also such a blast to see who was considered enough of a star to be included. Plus the odd interplay of, say, Bob Dylan and Cyndi Lauper hanging out.

Brett: Have Julien and Wallner shown enough that they can be trusted as regulars?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. Both look like platoon players, especially Wallner.

Dave: Have you ever considered selling t-shirts that say, “I Hate Your Favorite Team” – if not for personal profit (nothing wrong with that, btw) then for your favorite charity?
Keith Law: Not a bad idea. I’ll get on this.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks for reading and for the support. It’s on all of us to stand up for the rights of our least powerful or most vulnerable neighbors. Stay safe.

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→ March 4, 2024
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All of Us Strangers.

A reclusive writer in London starts a fling with a young man in his apartment complex, after which he takes a trip to visit his childhood home, where he finds his parents – who died twenty or thirty years earlier – just as they were right before they died, apparently alive and very happy to see him. It’s a bizarre and immediately compelling premise, with the superb Andrew Scott in the leading role. Alas, All of Us Strangers squanders all of these gifts by completely flubbing the ending in the most trite and predictable fashion. (It’s streaming now on Hulu, or available to buy on amazon.)

Scott plays Adam, a screenwriter who lives alone, without a partner or even many (or any) friends, but when he spots Harry (Paul Mescal) outside, the two have instant chemistry, although Adam is as reticent as Harry is forward and it takes several encounters before the two even go as far as a kiss. Their first conversation seems to free up Adam to write more, and he decides to take a train to the neighborhood where he grew up so he can see his childhood home, which should be sitting empty. Instead, he sees his parents, who died in a car accident when he was twelve, apparently alive and well, as they were just before the died, although they seem unfazed by the fact that he’s an adult and if anything is older than they are. He returns to see them several times, gradually revealing more about his life, including a scene where he comes out to his mother and she reacts as if it’s still 1990 or so. He also begins to see Harry more frequently, but when he tries to bring Harry to see his parents, the house is dark and abandoned, and Harry is clearly perturbed at his friend’s erratic behavior.

For nearly all of this film’s run time, it exists on another plane, where you can accept the unreality of what’s happening because it’s simple and self-contained and gives us little glimpses into Adam’s character. The film is about him, and his growth, or at times his regression, is the heart of the film. Each of his interactions with his parents, played by a frumpy Claire Foy and a mustachioed Jamie Bell, reveals a little more about his personality and why he’s become the person he is, for better and for worse. The character development is strong enough to justify the premise, but the script still needs to find a way to resolve the question of what’s actually happening with Adam’s parents, and unfortunately it does so in as unsatisfying a manner as it could have, undoing much of the remainder of the film in the process as well.

Scott is the film’s saving grace, although his performance has gone largely overlooked in awards season here and in the UK beyond one nomination for him at the Golden Globes. The film was even nominated for six BAFTAs, winning none, but Scott didn’t even get a nod for Best Actor. It’s an understated performance in a quiet role, which may have hurt him with critics and voters, but without him this film is dead on arrival. Mescal is fine as Harry, although the character itself is a little one-note, with Mescal giving him enough charm and pathos to let the viewer overlook how fortuitous his appearance in Adam’s life seems to be.

With twenty minutes or so left, I thought All of Us Strangers would end up among my top five films of 2023, between Scott’s performance and the way it establishes such a clear vibe from the start. I’m struggling to think of a film that unraveled so badly in the way it concluded, though. There’s failing to stick a landing, and there’s missing the mat entirely.

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→ March 3, 2024
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Killers of the Flower Moon (film).

David Grann’s Killers of the Flower Moon: The Osage Murders and the Birth of the FBI is one of the best nonfiction books I’ve ever read, a true story that works as a thriller, an important part of American history, and a document of racism and injustice that continues to echo today. Like most fans of the book and/or Grann’s work, I was thrilled to hear Martin Scorsese was adapting it for the screen…

…and then I saw the movie was three and a half hours long.

It is a very good movie, but it just didn’t need to be this long, and it works in more detail than the core narrative actually needed. It’s become a trend with Scorsese to create these overlong films that bog down in minor details that sap the energy of the main plot, which in this case detracts from what might otherwise have been the best movie of the year if anyone had said to him that he needed to edit this down to a reasonable length. (It’s streaming on Apple TV+.)

The Osage Nation were once the dominant civilization in the central plains of North America, but in the 1870s, the U.S. government exiled them to a desolate part of what is now northern Oklahoma, a move that backfired on the white colonizers when it turned out that the new Osage lands sat on a large oil field. This made the Osage people quite rich on paper, giving them headrights to a share of the proceeds from the nation’s oil revenues, although a 1921 federal law said that the Osage couldn’t access the cash directly without approval of white guardians until they were ruled “competent.” A series of murders of Osage tribe members in the 1920s, ignored by local authorities, led the tribe to beg the nascent Bureau of Investigations to look into the cases, which uncovered a conspiracy to kill the Osage for their headrights and indeed birthed the modern FBI.

The Osage woman at the center of the case that brought the Bureau into Oklahoma was Mollie Kyle (Lily Gladstone), who married a white carpetbagger named Ernest Burkhardt (Leonardo DiCaprio). Mollie’s two sisters, brother-in-law, and cousin were all murdered at the behest of Ernest’s uncle, William King Hale (Robert Deniro), while Ernest and King nearly killed Mollie by poisoning the insulin injections she needed for her diabetes before the Bureau arrived, led by Thomas White (Jesse Plemons), and solved the case, saving Mollie and sending her husband and uncle-in-law to prison.

The story here is so rich and compelling, especially in Grann’s rendition, that it would be hard to make a bad movie out of it; even when the film drags a little in pace, it’s still interesting because of the wide cast of characters and the sense of creeping doom that dominates the first two hours. All three leads are superb, with Gladstone especially strong, and Deniro looking the most invested in a part he’s been in forever. There’s no mystery as to who’s behind the killings, so any tension is from wondering how long they’ll get away with it, and, if you’re unfamiliar with the story, how many people will die before anyone takes the Osage – who are well aware these deaths are not accidental, as ruled by the coroner – seriously.

That makes the film’s bloat far harder to understand, because it just bogs things down and introduces a broad array of characters, nearly all drawn from real life and many played quite well by famous musicians, that the film doesn’t need. Keeping everyone straight in this movie requires a cheat sheet, and there’s a real imbalance to who’s getting that extra screen time – it’s the villains, all white men, while the Osage get far less screen time and have far fewer named characters on their side; the story unfurls from a neutral perspective, rather than from Mollie’s or that of the Osage in general. The real conspiracy was indeed this broad, involving cousins and criminals alike, yet for the sake of telling the story in a reasonable amount of time, Scorsese should have trimmed some of the names or at least kept a few more of them off screen.

The crimes themselves take up about two-thirds of the film, which does allow for the complex (to put it mildly) relationship between Mollie and Ernest, who had two kids together, to develop on screen, although the script may go too far in casting Ernest as a feckless pawn of his uncle rather than someone aware he was committing murder and poisoning his own wife. By the time the Bureau shows up, it is a welcome shot of energy in a film that had gotten stuck in its own mire, and Plemons livens things up even in an understated performance. The last hour, where the killers are brought to justice, zips by compared to the slow build that came before, with the main tension around whether Ernest will choose to stand by his uncle or confess to his crimes and, on some level, side with his wife. Even so, we get some overblown scenes like Brendan Fraser’s defense attorney bloviating in the courthouse with Ernest on the stand, a perfectly fine scene in its own right but not one that pushes the story forward. There are just so many bits here that could have been cut to make this movie two and a half hours, and in that case, it might have challenged for Best Picture, but instead we get an Apple TV+ movie that feels like it was trying to be a limited series instead.

Killers of the Flower Moon earned ten nominations, including the obligatory Best Director and Best Picture nods for Scorsese; this is the seventh film of his last nine to get him a Director nomination, although it seems far more of a recognition of his name than his work here. Gladstone is the overwhelming favorite to win Best Actress, which may be the only major award it wins; if it wins another, I’d guess Robbie Robertson might win for Best Original Score, as the score is strong, adding to many scenes without ever overwhelming the action or dialogue, and the fact that he died before the film was released will likely win him some additional votes. DiCaprio did not get a Best Actor nomination, even though he at least was better than one nominee in Bradley Cooper.

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→ March 2, 2024
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Stick to baseball, 3/2/24.

Nothing new this week at the Athletic, but I’ll have two draft-related pieces coming up next week.

At Paste, I reviewed Dragonkeepers, a new family-level game that I found really disappointing, with the wrong mixture of complexity and randomness.

I’ll have a new newsletter out in the next day or two, but you can sign up here – it’s free and always includes links to everything I write.

And now, the links…

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→ March 1, 2024
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Music update, February 2024.

Hey, not too bad for a month of just 29 days, although I think the quantity of songs on a playlist has more to do with how many Fridays a month has than how many days. I’m posting this on March 1st, which is a strong album release day (Liam Gallagher & John Squire, Everything Everything, Kaiser Chiefs, Ministry, Sheer Mag, Yard Act), leading into what looks like a very promising spring of new LPs from some great artists. As always, if you can’t see the Spotify widget below, you can click here.

Kacey Musgraves – Deeper Well. I’m pretty sure this is the first song by Musgraves I’ve ever put on a playlist. It’s just gorgeous, with a hint of darkness in the lyrics to contrast to the lovely guitarwork and harmonies in the chorus.

Khruangbin – May Ninth. A La Sala, their first proper LP since 2020’s Mordechai, comes out on April 5th, and it seems like it may be a return to their all-instrumental style from their prior work.

Parsnip – The Light. Parsnip is an Australian quartet who released an album in 2019 called When the Tree Bears Fruit, but this was the first track I’d heard by them. It’s jangly, catchy indie-pop with some smart-ass lyrics, loosely descended from a lot of the Britpop stuff I was all about in my 20s. It’s from their upcoming album Behold, due out April 26th, their first new music of any sort since 2020.

Kaiser Chiefs – Beautiful Girl. Kaiser Chiefs’ Easy Eighth Album comes out on March 1st, their first LP since 2019, but even with production from Nike Rodgers, this is the only single I’ve heard of five worth listening to. It’s fantastic, though. Lead singer Ricky Wilson wrote a short, interesting retrospective on their sudden rise to fame and the vicissitudes of their career for The Guardian this past week.

Pond – Neon River. More weird psychedelic rock from down under. Stay with it through the lugubrious intro for the muscular, acid-tinged riffs in the chorus.

Elbow – Lovers’ Leap. Elbow came along at the wrong time for me, after Madchester and Britpop, two genres I still come back to all the time, but before I got back into current music again around 2007, thanks in no small part to the Arctic Monkeys’ debut album. I’ve checked in on them here and there, such as when they won the Mercury Prize for The Seldom Seen Kid, but their music has just drifted right on by me. That’s by way of explanation of why this is the first Elbow track to ever appear on one of my playlists: it’s not just that I think it’s good, but I think it’s very different. Frontman Guy Garvey promised the upcoming LP, Audio Vertigo, will be “groove-based,” and this song definitely qualifies.

Yard Act feat. Katy Pearson and David Thewlis – When the Laughter Stops. More post-punk goodness from Yard Act, with an appearance from Thewlis reading the “sound and fury” monologue from Hamlet. Their second album, Where’s My Utopia?, is out today, March 1st.

English Teacher – R&B. There’s a slow start here but it picks up the pace partway through to sound more like other English Teacher tracks, with their modern take on post-punk; their debut full-length This Could Be Texas comes out on April 12th.

Omni – Compliment. I seem to be very late to the Omni party, as the Atlanta post-punks have received critical acclaim for at least their last three albums now, including the just-released Souvenir, which has this track as the closer.

Squid – Fugue (Bin Song). I’m not always on Squid’s wavelength, but they’re one of the most innovative bands out there right now, especially in their punk-adjacent space, playing with time signatures and working outside of traditional keys. It’s a bit like black midi with less pretense.

Les Savy Fav – Legendary Tippers. I didn’t think LSF were still a going concern, but they’re about to release their first new album in 14 years, Oui, in May. They’ve dropped two singles so far; this one sounds similar to the sound they

Kid Kapichi – Get Down. Kid Kapichi have always reminded me of a harder-edged version of Arctic Monkeys, leaning more into punk than Alex Turner & company do, but here they go back a few decades with talk-sung lyrics telling a story before the hook in the chorus.

Cast – The Rain That Falls. So I sort of knew Cast were still around, but maybe I’d forgotten? I loved Cast in the 1990s – “Sandstorm,” “Alright,” “Beat Mama,” “Finetime” – as they emerged from the ashes of The La’s, whose Brian Wilson-esque frontman Lee Mavers refused to release any new music after their debut album. Cast’s latest LP Love Is the Call is a mixed bag, at best, but this is the best track on the album and you can hear their earlier Britpoppy sound poking through.

Everything Everything – The End of the Contender. These British art-rockers’ latest album, Mountainhead, drops on March 1st, featuring this song, “Cold Reactor,” and “The Mad Stone.” Those three singles all have the EE sound, but they’ve also felt more restrained, without the sort of controlled chaos of Arc or A Fever Dream.

Love Fame Tragedy – It’s Ok To Be Shallow. The second single this winter from Matthew Murphy’s side project, after December’s “Don’t You Want To Sleep With Someone Normal,” with both sounding … a lot like the Wombats. I don’t think Murphy can write any other way, but fortunately I love most of what he writes, so we’re all good.

Ride – Last Frontier. Ride & Slowdive both making comebacks in the late teens ahead of, or perhaps encouraging, the new peak of shoegaze is a welcome development, given that I liked both bands in their original heydays but definitely did not fully appreciate either.

Brittany Howard – Prove It To You. What Now turned out to be a bit of a disappointment after the title track, the lead single from the record, was so good I named it my #1 track of 2023. I was hoping for more funk, but instead the album bounces all over the place, with a lot of house/electronica and a number of almost dirge-like tracks. Nothing lived up to the first single but this is the second-best song on the LP.

Little Simz – Mood Swings. Little Simz released a surprise EP, Drop 7, with seven tracks and a total run time of just 14:49; it is, as you’d expect, the seventh in a series of EPs that exist in parallel to her more traditional tracks on her albums. It’s weird, in a good way, although it reminds me I need to listen to No Thank You, her December 2022 album, again, as it came out in a dead time for new albums.

Paul Weller – Soul Wandering. Sixty-five and still rocking, Weller, the former leader of The Jam and The Style Council, is back with this soul-influenced track that has some powerful guitar work (I get a little early Tom Cochrane from it) before the Motown-esque backing vocalists come in for the chorus. His latest solo album, 66, will come out on May 24th, one day before his 66th birthday.

Waxahatchee – Bored. I can’t believe it’s been four years since Saint Cloud, Waxahatchee’s breakout album, came out, but I guess a fair amount has happened since then. This track is the second from her upcoming album Tiger Blood, due out March 24th, and both songs seem to lean more into her alt.country side than the roots rock style of the last album.

The Mysterines – Stray. Lia Metcalfe and company will release their second album, Afraid of Tomorrows, on June 7th. This lead single is more snarling than most of the tracks on their 2022 debut, Reeling, but not quite as fast-paced as their earliest singles, which remains my favorite version of the band. The song’s video definitely leans into Metcalfe’s looks and star power.

Slow Fiction – Apollo. An indie-rock group from Brooklyn – bet you haven’t heard of that before! – Slow Fiction put out an EP last year, followed by this one-off single, which does a tremendous job of building up energy and tension through the bridge and chorus, only releasing it in the final ten seconds or so of the track.

Screaming Females – Swallow the World. The Females announced their breakup in December, but they’ve now released their 2022 EP Clover, previously only available to buy at shows, on streaming sites and on bandcamp.

MAQUINA. – denial. I know very little about this band other than that they’re Portuguese, but this is very Ministry, with a little Death in Vegas thrown in.

Alcest – L’Envol. This French metal band pioneered the awkwardly-named subgenre of “blackgaze,” melding black metal elements with shoegaze, which was later taken over by the American band Deafheaven on their far less interesting album Sunbather. Anyway, Alcest has been putting out some of the best metal albums in the world in the last decade, and their first new LP in five years, Les Chants de l’aurore, will be out in June.

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