→ August 15, 2018
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Top 55 pizzerias in the U.S., ranked.

I’ve updated this list for the first time since the original version went up three years ago, and again, I expect this will start quite a few debates.

I adore all kinds of pizza – New York-style, Neapolitan-style (thin crust, wet center), Roman-style (also thin-crust but with a cracker-like crust), Sicilian, coal-fired, wood-fired, whatever. Except “deep dish,” which is just a bread casserole and which I actively dislike. I try to find good artisan pizzerias everywhere I travel, and I’ve hit just about all of the most highly-regarded places in Manhattan and Brooklyn too. I grew up on Long Island, eating by the slice and folding as I did so, but a couple of trips to Italy convinced me of the merits of those very thin crusts and superior toppings. We’re the beneficiaries of a huge boom in high-end pizza joints in this country, and while I haven’t tried all of the good ones, I’ve been to enough to put together a ranking of the 55 best that I’ve tried. There is, I admit, a bias to this list – I’ve tried more places in greater Phoenix than any other metro area other than New York – and I’m sure I’ll get some yelling over where I put di Fara or Paulie Gee’s, but with all of that out of the way, here’s how I rank ’em.

(I’ve removed two entries that closed since the last ranking, but if I missed another one, please put it in the comments.)

1. Pizzeria Bianco, Phoenix
2. Kesté, New York
3. Motorino, New York
4. Roberta’s, Brooklyn
5. Una Pizza Napoletana, New York (relocated from San Francisco)
6. Pizzeria Vetri/Osteria, Philadelphia
7. Frank Pepe’s, New Haven
8. del Popolo, San Francisco
9. Garage Bar, Louisville
10. Pizzeria Mozza, Los Angeles
11. Pizzeria Lola, Minneapolis
12. cibo, Phoenix
13. Lucali, Brooklyn
14. Forcella, New York
15. Pizzeria Stella, Philadelphia
16. Spacca Napoli, Chicago
17. Paulie Gee’s, Brooklyn
18. Don Antonio by Starita, New York
19. Pizzaiolo, Oakland
20. ‘Pomo, Phoenix
21. Brigantessa, Philadelphia
22. Marta, New York
23. Ribalta, New York
24. flour + water, San Francisco
25. Totonno’s, Brooklyn
26. Federal Pizza, Phoenix
27. La Piazza al Forno, Glendale, AZ
28. Via Tribunali, New York/Seatte
29. Il Cane Rosso, Dallas
30. Antico, Atlanta
31. Ravanesi, Concordville, PA
32. City House, Nashville
33. Tarry Lodge, Port Chester, New York
34. Desano, Nashville
35. Grimaldi’s, Phoenix
36. Jon & Vinny’s, Los Angeles
37. Timber Pizza, Washington, DC
38. Di Fara, Brooklyn
39. All-Purpose, Washington, DC
40. Il Bosco, Scottsdale, AZ
41. Co., New York (closed February 2018)
42. Rubirosa, New York
43. Punch Pizza, St. Paul
44. Toro, Durham
45. Craft 64, Scottsdale, AZ
46. Harry’s Bar, Miami, FL
47. 800 Degrees, Los Angeles
48. Firestarter, Dennis, MA
49. Forno 301, Phoenix
50. Dolce Vita, Houston
51. Stella Rosa, Santa Monica
52. Grimaldi’s, Brooklyn
53. Basic, San Diego
54. Nicoletta, New York (closed as of 1/2019)
55. Taconelli, Philadelphia

There’s a long list of pizzerias I still need (okay, want, but where I’m concerned pizza is a need) to try, so they’re not on the list: Razza in Jersey City, Apizza Scholls in Portland, Area Four near Boston, 2 Amy’s in DC (temporarily closed), Menomale in DC, Sottocasa in Brooklyn, al Forno in Providence, Mani Osteria in Ann Arbor, Vero in Cleveland, Iggie’s in Baltimore, and more. It’s a good time to be a pizza lover, and unless you have to be gluten-free, how could you not love pizza?

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→ August 13, 2018
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The Fall of Hyperion.

Dan Simmons’ Hugo-winning novel Hyperion is one of my favorite science fiction novels ever, a totally unexpected epic story that creates a new universe in a distant hyper connected future and gives the reader five absolutely fascinating character backstories … but doesn’t give the reader any kind of resolution. The five people in question have all traveled to the world of Hyperion, a planet at the edges of the dominant galactic federation, about to be threatened by the invading Ousters, to journey to a portion of Hyperion inhabited by a mysterious and deadly creature known as the Shrike, who lives among the Time Tombs where entropy goes through the roof and time itself moves in inexplicable ways. The nature of the Shrike, the outcome of their journeys, the potential for war between the global confederation and the Ousters – these are all left hanging at the end of Hyperion. It’s still so powerfully written, with erudite prose and meticulously and thoughtfully crafted characters that I could easily recommend the book as a one-off read, even with its cliffhanger ending; but I concede I still wanted to know what would happen to some of those characters and what on earth the Shrike was.

Simmons returned to the story in The Fall of Hyperion, which breaks the plot up into multiple threads, one of which is narrated by a ‘cybrid’ who is the reincarnated consciousness of the poet John Keats, but also provides the reader with a more conventional finish to the story. The series of novels in this universe continues, but you can read these two book as a diptych and get a complete self-contained story. And I think that might be enough for me for now; Simmons’ writing is wonderful, but I’m not driven to get back to this universe the way I have been with some others.

The five pilgrims on Hyperion are as we left them, running out of time, stymied by the very forces who helped them reach the Time Tombs, and in perpetual fear of the bizarre creature who stalks them but whose intentions are entirely unclear. The pilgrims have a purpose in the passion play at work here – the Keats cybrid is a rather obvious Christ surrogate – but that purpose, beyond the sheer opening of the Time Tombs, is unknown to all of them. Simmons layers on top of this the greater question of war between the federation of humanity, aided by the sentient and independent artificial intelligence unit called the Core, and the Ousters, whose goal is also unknown beyond mere territorial conquest. The CEO of the ‘good guys’ is Meina Gladstone, a woman surrounded by men who doubt her, with scarcely any support from the politicians below her, and with her own personal interest in the movements of the pilgrims.

That combination of stories along with the need to just wrap the dang thing up meant that The Fall of Hyperion didn’t have the same sort of narrative greed as its predecessor, even though the prose remains superb, replete with references to 19th and early 20th century English poetry, because of the fractured nature of the narrative itself. Only in the last few chapters does Simmons spend more time in each location before shifting focus, and that’s because by that point in the book the stories are converging. The most riveting of the pilgrims’ stories, that of Sol Weintraub and his daughter Rachel, who is aging in reverse after her visit to the Time Tombs, remains so – but it’s also fairly easy to see what her role in the greater drama will be, and that she’s not going to die even though Sol and the other pilgrims, who all become emotionally invested in her survival in a beautiful flourish of writing from Simmons, believe she may.

Saying that The Fall of Hyperion doesn’t live up to its predecessor is not a criticism, or even necessarily a measure of disappointment. I wanted to finish the stories given in the first book, and I truly enjoy Simmons’ writing, so I had little doubt I’d find the sequel a great read. The first book was such an immersive read, one that reminded me of getting lost in Jonathan Strange or the Harry Potter novels, that no second book was going to live up to it.

Next up: Haruki Murakami’s Men Without Women.

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→ August 11, 2018
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Stick to baseball, 8/11/18.

Just one Insider post this week, with scouting notes on some Yankees, Pirates, and Orioles prospects. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

My Gen Con wrap-up is filed to Paste and I’ll update this post with the link when I get it.

You can sign up for my free email newsletter, which I’ve been sending out every ten days or so. And my book, Smart Baseball, is now just $9 on Kindle.

And now, the links…

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→ August 10, 2018
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Century Spice Road.

When reviewing anything – books, movies, TV shows, and, yes, board games – it’s often too easy to describe something by comparing it to another more familiar title, or to say it’s a combination of this title and that title. Come to think of it, that comes up quite often in baseball too – readers and especially TV/radio hosts often ask me “who does this prospect remind you of?” I generally don’t like to answer those questions, because I find those comparisons too facile and often not very revealing – you lose a lot of nuance, and the comparison becomes an anchor point for whoever is listening or reading. If I tell you such-and-such a pitcher reminds me a lot of Roy Halladay, you’re not going to think of anything but Roy Halladay – and any further elucidation comes in the form of a negative statement, like “he’s Roy Halladay but not X.”

So now I’m going to violate everything I just said earlier – Century Spice Road is really a lot like Splendor, in a good way. It has one significant twist in the mechanics that make it a great game for people who like Splendor (and really, if you don’t like Splendor, I’m not sure if we can be friends) but want something a little different. Splendor is a shade more elegant, and gets points for bringing this general mechanical framework to the table, but Century Spice Road is perfect if you’ve decided you want something similar to Splendor but not exactly the same.

Century Spice Road is the first part of a game trilogy from Emerson Matsuuchi (Reef, Volt), the second part of which, Century Eastern Wonders, was out at Gen Con last week, with part three due out in 2019. The first two games can apparently be combined into a single game called Sand & Sea, which I will try out when I get my copy of Eastern Wonders.

Spice Road’s theme is a familiar one in the tabletop world – I’ve lost count of how many games involve merchants trading spices – while the rules are quite brief and simple. Players will collect spice cubes in four colors (turmeric, safran, cardamom, and cinnamon), and try to trade them in for bonus cards that can be worth 8 to 19 points depending on the cube costs. Players collect those cubes by playing cards that allow them to just take two or three cubes form the supply, and, more frequently, by playing upgrade cards that allow them to trade in some combination of cubes for another combination of cubes that is more valuable. (It’s not a zero-sum game; you’re trading with the market, which apparently is full of merchants who suck at math.) The cubes’ values are ordered, with turmeric the least valuable and cinnamon the most. Those values are reflected on all of the upgrade cards and on the bonus cards, so cards that require more cinnamon and cardamom cubes will be worth more points.

On a turn, a player can play a card from his/her hand, take a card from the supply, claim a bonus card with the appropriate cubes, or ‘rest’ to pick back up all cards s/he has played to the table. The queue of cards to take works with the same mechanic as many other games, notably Small World, where the leftmost (top) card in the stack is free, and you pay one cube of any color for each card you skip over to take another one, placing each cube on the card you’ve skipped. Sometimes that’s still a great play – your cube can only hold ten cubes at the end of your turn – and sometimes it’s smart to take a card from the queue because of the cubes other players have left on it.

The leftmost card in the stack of bonus cards rewards the player who claims it with a gold coin, and the next card to its right is worth a silver coin, although both piles of coins are limited to twice the number of players in that game. Game-end scoring is simple: add up the points on your bonus cards, take three points for each gold coin and one for each silver, and add one point for each non-turmeric (yellow) spice cube left on your caravan. When one player obtains his/her fifth bonus card (4-5 players) or sixth (2-3 players), players finish that round and score. Games take 30-40 minutes, turns are short, and the rules are very quick for new players to learn. It really is Splendor-ish, but with a little more engine-building to it, where instead of acquiring cards that give you permanent jewel/cube values, you play upgrade cards to boost the cubes you have. It’s a great lightweight game that capitalizes on the familiarity of an earlier game without feeling too repetitive.

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→ August 9, 2018
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So You Want to Talk About Race.

When a TV channel decided to put together a panel on the Atlanta Braves’ 1990 teams on Hall of Fame weekend last month, they chose a set of criteria – members of the organization from that time period who were also inducted or selected for the Baseball Hall of Fame by the writers or one of the Hall’s committees – that produced a panel of six men, all of whom are white. The 1990s Braves were a typically diverse MLB team for the era; about 20-24% of their roster in any given year comprised players of color, some of whom were crucial to the team’s success. Fred McGriff’s arrival in a mid-1993 trade spurred one of the most furious second half runs we’ve ever seen, where Atlanta overtook San Francisco to win the division after falling nine games back in mid-July. David Justice’s home run accounted for the only run in Game 6 of the 1995 World Series, the only championship won by Atlanta in the 1990s. Andruw Jones became the youngest player ever to homer in a World Series game in 1996, then became the second player ever to homer in his first two World Series at bats, and his defense was a big part of Atlanta’s run of division titles for the rest of that decade. Given that those Atlanta teams depended on the contributions of players of color, and that diversity improves outcomes in education, workplace productivity, and decision-making, the choice of criteria that excluded all persons of color harmed the end product.

This panel took place right after I had finished listening to the audio version of Ijeoma Oluo’s book So You Want to Talk About Race, which is part polemic, part plea, and part guide for people of all political and philosophical beliefs who want to talk or even think about issues of race and diversity. She’s talking about racism, yes, but more broadly, she’s talking about race and how we can have better, more productive conversations about race, and racial bias, and similar types of bias like those around gender, place of origin, or sexual orientation. Ojuo is a queer black woman whose father is Nigerian, so she is able to fill the book with personal anecdotes, but she also draws substantially on others’ stories and on scholarship in the areas of racism and diversity.

The book’s chapters are provocative, by design, even though the subject matter within each often veers significantly from the initial questions. Chapters include “Why can’t I say the N-word?,” “Is police brutality really about race?,” and “Why can’t I touch your hair?,” all of which contain stories that range from appalling to horrifying, and grab the reader’s attention from the outset by the shocking nature of the titles. (The hair thing really flabbergasted me, but I asked two African-American women I know well enough to ask about the subject, and both said yes, they are frequently asked by strangers if someone can touch their hair – or have strangers touch their hair without asking.) I’m sure most people inclined to pick this book up would have the same reaction to such chapter titles as I did – because you’re not black, yes it is, and because it’s not your body – but Oluo uses those as departure points for broader questions of how society others people of color and ignores systemic or structural forces that continue to hold back nonwhite members of society on both social and economic fronts.

Other chapters get right to the meat of the subject, such as those on intersectionality and the school-to-prison pipeline, as well as the one titled “Why am I always being told to ‘check my privilege?'” Oluo is comfortable making the reader uncomfortable; she even acknowledges this by telling how often she’s been criticized for talking too much or too vocally about race and racial bias. Some people want to believe we live in a post-racial society or that we are raising our children to be “blind to color.” The systemic issues behind police brutality against citizens of color or the high discipline and incarceration rates of young black men are not gone, or going away any time soon, and Oluo explains just how pervasive they are (that black students are far more likely to be suspended than white students, three times as likely for boys and six times as likely for girls).

As for privilege, Oluo doesn’t hold back. You can see some of the same ideas that appear in her book in this long essay she wrote in March of 2017, in which she points out that people who ‘woke up’ to the existence of systemic and structural racism after the election of Donald Trump were, in fact, experiencing the result of privilege, because Americans of color deal with it and its residues every day. (Resumes with white-sounding names get more callbacks for interviews than those with nonwhite-sound names. Scare quotes may apply.) But Oluo’s message to white readers is clear: We are late, and we have contributed to the backsliding in the rights of minorities, but we can still help if we are willing to accept our own failings and those of society. She wrote in that essay to white readers, “you can help in ways that I cannot,” and the exhortation appears again and again in the book, with countless suggestions and calls to action, questions you can ask at work, at your children’s schools, of your elected representatives, in formal and informal social groups.

There is much work to be done, and it will require the cooperation and effort of populations who are not adversely affected by such biases, conscious or structural. If you have privilege and a platform, which I do, you can use it to speak out when you see active or passive bias – lack of representation, dog-whistling, micro-aggressions, stereotype threat. You can go to school board or PTA meetings and ask about the percentage of faculty members who are persons of color, or whether the curriculum accurately reflects nonwhite cultural experiences, or how students of color are disciplined – and whether that’s different from how white students are. You can push for laws that might reduce incidents of police violence against citizens of color, like requiring body cameras, or to change or repeal laws that do not mention race but have had a disparate impact on black communities, like fighting to decriminalize drug possession and to expunge records of those non-violent crimes. You can push for greater diversity at work, not for ‘tokenism,’ but because it will make you and your company more productive. Most of all, Oluo urges readers, you can’t just pretend this stuff isn’t real. It’s everywhere because it is writ into the fabric of our society, a society that is a mere six generations away from enslaving black people, two generations away from denying them basic civil rights, one generation away from open discrimination in the workplace, and still today in a world where Americans of color, especially those who are black, face insidious, subtle discrimination at the workplace, in church, on the streets, in schools, and anywhere else they might dare to be black.

So yes, I do want to talk about race. I want to try to do something to make the world better when it comes to race, bias, and diversity. I believe that world will make us all better off – we’ll be happier and more productive people. I also believe that I am privileged, and that I’ve benefited from the same kind of structures that Oluo points out have held back people of color, because most of these arenas are a zero-sum game – college admissions, employment, etc. If a black candidate is rejected for his/her race, or is seen as less qualified because s/he grew up in disadvantaged conditions and lacked access to better education or learning resources, the beneficiary will more than likely be a white person. Oluo’s book encouraged me to say something when I saw tweets about that panel – not that it was “racist” per se, but that it excluded persons of color, and thus was not representative – and to think more about how I can make some small difference when it comes to race and bias in my work and in my life.

One aside: There was one section of one chapter in So You Want to Talk About Race that rang false for me – the portion of the chapter on cultural appropriation (an uncomfortable read for me, as someone who consumes a lot of culture without thinking about this question) where Oluo discusses rap music. Rap originated as a black genre of music, just as jazz and the blues did, and was later co-opted by the musical mainstream, which has meant white artists also use the form, and white record executives and promoters and agents all profit from it. Whether a musical form, essentially rhythmic poetry, can truly be appropriated is a worthwhile question to debate; is it comparable to a structure like a fugue or an aria, a template to which the artist must then apply his or her own creative energies? Oluo lost me, however, with claims that this assimilation has led to white rappers finding easy success in the field despite showing less talent than black rappers who struggle to find an audience. The claim itself is entirely subjective; judging what rappers have more talent would probably bog down in an argument over what exactly defines talent in rap, whether it is technical skill or lyrical ingenuity or musical innovation or something else, but even more troubling to me is that the claim appears not to be true. A few white rappers have found enormous commercial and critical success. Eminem is the best example, but he was the protégé of Dr. Dre (who is African-American), and Dre produced Eminem’s biggest albums and released them through his Aftermath imprint. (For example, The Marshall Mathers LP was produced by Dre, The 45 King, Mel-Man, and the Bass Brothers; three of those five men are African-American.) You could count the number of white rappers to have significant commercial success on two hands – the Beastie Boys, Vanilla Ice, Macklemore – while African-American rappers, many of whom seem (to my subjective ears) to have had success because of who produced them rather than their own talents, continue to dominate the singles and album charts. I understand what Oluo was trying to say here, but I don’t think the reality of the marketplace bears out her specific criticisms.

Next up: Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World by Cal Newport.

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→ August 9, 2018
→ By

Klawchat 8/9/18.

My latest Insider post has my scouting notes on some Yankees, Orioles, and Pirates prospects, plus thoughts on an umpshow I witnessed in Trenton on Tuesday.

Keith Law: People give your ears, so I be sublime. It’s Klawchat.

addoeh: Remember how excited you were as a kid when you opened a pack of baseball cards and saw a Doug Harvey or an Eric Gregg in there?
Keith Law: I have a complete set from 1985. I think it’s worth like three or four dollars now.

Andrew: So Jayson Werth said this, in his diatribe about how “nerds” are killing baseball: “… I think it’s killing the game. It’s to the point where just put computers out there. Just put laptops and what have you, just put them out there and let them play. We don’t even need to go out there anymore. It’s a joke.” Do people really misunderstand the purpose of analyzing data to this degree? Isn’t this the baseball equivalent of science-deniers discrediting evolution because “I’ve never seen a monkey turn into a human”?
Keith Law: I knew Werth a little in Toronto and was kind of shocked to see him go full denialist like that. He was one of the friendliest players to me at a time when I was quite an oddball due to my role (and probably due to my personality). I can only assume he’s just frustrated that his career ended before he was ready … but he made a lot of money because those same ‘nerds’ he decried pointed out how valuable he really was.

Meeeeeee: Hey, Keith… Given that Bellinger was never a huge power prospect in the minors, is it likely that his 2017 HR total was an aberration and that this year’s output is more likely to be what he produces in the future (with more batting average)?
Keith Law: Bellinger was always a huge power prospect.

Zach: Is Lucas Sims similar to two of the Reds’ existing former top prospects Robert Stephenson and Cody Reed?
Keith Law: No, I’d put him behind those guys today or if I were trying to rank them all based on where they were as prospects.

Matt: Dark Helmet is tweeting about “Space Force all the way!” Not like there’s anything important to tackle like climate change, fires in California, Flint, refugees, etc.
Keith Law: I can only assume the Gorilla Channel aired a marathon of V yesterday.

Scott: I will be in Pittsburgh next month (yes, going to PNC as part of trip) and looking for some restaurant recommendations if you have any good ones, thanks.
Keith Law: I haven’t been there in almost ten years. I believe two of my old favorites are still open though – Pamela’s (greasy spoon breakfast place) and Spice Island Tea House.

Rich Bower: Brendan McKay has looked great pitching – does he project more power on the batting side? Thanks as always!
Keith Law: I’ve talked to three scouts who’ve seen him recently. All have him rated very highly as a pitcher and say he should give up hitting just to focus on the mound now. Not that he couldn’t hit but he’s farther behind that way.

RK: I know you expected Royce Lewis to be a CF when he was drafted, have you changed your stance on that or no?
Keith Law: No, not sure why I would. Reports I’ve gotten are that his bat is incredibly advanced, he’s every bit as smart and instinctive on the bases as advertised, but that he’s got a long way to go to be passable at short.

JR: What are your thoughts on Tyler Mahle? He’s been great in some games this year and awful in others?
Keith Law: He’s been extremely homer-prone at home, which is unsurprising from the ballpark but still bad (16 in 52.2 IP!). The part that shocks me is that he’s walked so many guys, and weirdly enough is doing that more on the road (probably a sample-size fluke, but still, why?). He was always a command guy where you hoped the stuff was enough to make him more than a 4/5.

Bren: Do any of the more powerful FO executives like Theo have any kind of decision making power written into their contracts? The Mets desperately need to hire a strong GM/VP, but is there any way they can ensure Jeff Wilpon doesn’t end up undermining them constantly?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I haven’t seen any of those contracts, either. I can imagine that the Cubs know that if Theo were to get undermined by one of the Ricketts’ kids (when they’re not busy propping up the kakistocracy), he’d quit.

Rick Sanchez: What kind of power ceiling do you see for Bo Bichette? He hasn’t produced many homers throughout his minor league career, but I’ve seen his power rated as high as 70.
Keith Law: I don’t know who rated him there – no scout I’ve talked to, certainly. I’ve seen Bichette a ton since HS, and I could see a future 70 hit tool, but with 55 power.

Stan: Have you ever been approached with an opportunity to teach at the university level? You are an Ivy League grad, have worked successfully in a high level industry, are very well written and spoken and, most importantly, can find racism in even the most benign of situations.
Keith Law: I’ve never understood privileged people like you who think there’s value in claiming there isn’t racism in situations where other people believe it exists. If you can’t see the microaggression in, say, publicly questioning whether a Dominican prospect has lied about his age, or why a panel of six members of the same organization from the same time period that excludes all players of color (when that team included current employee Fred McGriff) poses huge problems of representation and signals to people of color that their views aren’t valued, well, maybe sit this one out.

TC: Is there still hope for Rosario becoming an impact player? .273 OBP in 153 career games suggests he has a long way to go.
Keith Law: wow, 153 whole games.

NYTT: What’s the next step in Ian Anderson’s development? Where do you see him settling in when he gets to Atlanta?
Keith Law: Just promoted to AA yesterday. I assume you’re asking his ceiling – I think a #2 starter, maybe more. Heard nothing but great things from his recent outings.

brian: simple rule change — only the crew chief can throw out a player… if crew chief sees player arguing balls and strikes or throwing at a batter – so be it… will at least limit the umpshow!
Keith Law: I think last night’s incidents with Soto and Justin Turner highlights the problem. If Soto gets tossed for calmly pointing out that a call was wrong – you have to see Jerry Layne’s postgame comments, it’s so clear that he values the umpires’ egos over getting the call right I wanted to throw up just reading them – while Turner acts as he did and doesn’t get run, well, we have a pretty serious problem of inconsistency.

Andy E: Hey Keith, I just have to ask why you are such a nerd and love being such a NERD?!?!?!?!

Actually no real question, just wanted to say I love your work.
Keith Law: Thanks. I am a nerd and do love it.

Scott: Luis Garcia continues to rake in High-A at 18 years old. If he finishes out this year in similar fashion, does he have the potential to be a top 50 prospect heading into next year? Or is his ceiling not that high?
Keith Law: He’s certainly a top 100 guy. He’s blown past Antuna, who got 3x the money and was the higher ceiling guy, but whose body has gone totally south on him.

Billy: If the season ended today, who is your NL MVP, and who do you think would actually win?
Keith Law: deGrom. No clue who’d win.

Nick: Have you seen Jake Holmes (Phillies ‘17 11th rounder) this year? Numbers look good and wanted to see if your observations match up.
Keith Law: I haven’t. He’s 20 in short-season.

brian: Your ESPN brother posted an interesting article today that wins on a year to year basis are worthless BUT a good marker for a career review… any thoughts?
Keith Law: They’re not. Ask Bert Blyleven.

A big dumb idiot: Danny Jansen has been raking for 2 seasons now, but I’m unsure of the consensus on his defence. Could you let me know what you’ve heard?
Keith Law: Playable.

John: Royals farm system… Still bad? Terrible? Any names to keep an eye on as potential ‘next wave’ of talent players?
Keith Law: Outside of the 2018 draft, it’s bottom 2 or 3. They added a huge infusion of moderate-ceiling but high-probability talent, which is kind of what they needed most after some high picks used on prep arms haven’t worked out.

James: In the perpetually ongoing battle to shorten game length, why not limit the number of warm-up pitches? This is done quite effectively in Japan, and honestly, while the time difference isn’t going to be significant, it feels like an incredibly low-impact change to make.
Keith Law: The only warm-up pitches that might affect game length are those thrown by relievers when they enter the game. You could argue that those pitchers should be warmed up already. The rest are largely just filling time during ever-longer commercial breaks.

John: I’ve been curious about player development and stolen bases lately. Is there a reason that teams don’t have all their prospects running frequently in the minors? Even for slow guys, but especially the fast ones, it seems like it would help them develop better “baserunning intuition” and perfect skills like picking up pitcher moves and sliding, at no real cost. Can always have them tone it down when they get to MLB.
Keith Law: It hurts the hitters.

G: I enjoyed today’s write-up on prospects, but am mostly interested in your thoughts on Ke’Bryan Hayes. You mention his 3 hard-hit balls–has he made the swing changes necessary for future power?
Keith Law: I have never had a big problem with his swing. He’s just been more of a high-contact guy – and I think the Pirates preach that over power.

Chuck: What do you make of Seattle’s scouting purge? Are those jobs going to be filled?
Keith Law: That report that they let 10 scouts go was wrong. They did let six scouts go, which still isn’t great, but don’t you have to get that number right before reporting it? My understanding is that they’re not reducing their total number of scouts.

tom: Hi Keith. Do you think Chris Paddack becomes a #2 starter? Has he developed a 3rd pitch yet or is this a case of him just dominating the lower minors with 2 pitches? His numbers are unreal!
Keith Law: He doesn’t have an average breaking ball and I think that limits his ceiling, although he’s really good for a two-pitch guy (it’s a 70 CH) and is probably ready for the majors now.

Nick: Why wouldn’t the Indians try to increase Yandy Diaz’ launch angle? With his approach, exit velo, and defense, he seems like a potential star if he doesn’t hit 60% of his balls on the ground.
Keith Law: He’s always hit the ball hard when I’ve seen him. Some guys can’t make that adjustment or don’t want to try.

Kevin w : Why does our country spend so much on defense when we have no border disputes…couldn’t this money be spent on education, healthcare, and programs like social security?
Keith Law: Defense spending is never questioned. If you do, then you hate America.

romorr: There enough J2 talent to justify that Gausman trade if we lose out on Victor Victor? That inclusion of O’Day is awful right? A rebuilding team saving 10 million, at the costs of better prospects, is indefensible.
Keith Law: There’s no justifying it even if you get VVM, because the trade only gave you a ‘portion’ of him. I am assuming ownership ordered Duquette to shave payroll.

tom: I know he’s only 17, but is Wander Franco a guy you see in the majors at 19, like a Juan Soto. What’s his power ceiling?
Keith Law: Yes. 25+ homer guy. I’ll be shocked if he is still on the minors on the day he turns 20, barring injury.

Hungry: I’ll keep trying to get this answered…are there any moral issues with cooking shows? I love to watch them, but also can’t help but feel bad for the all the wasted food that could be used for better purposes than to watch a judge take a few bites for our entertainment.
Keith Law: I don’t know why you keep asking when I’ve declined to answer for … a year? I have no idea what happens to that food. We don’t know if it’s “wasted” or consumed by the crew or donated. It’s an unanswerable question.

Mike: Bryan Reynolds is getting on base at his career normal level, but he is slugging well below his career norm. Do you attribute that to his hamate bone injury at the beginning of the season? Something more? I know you just saw Altoona, do you think he can be an every day player? Thanks!
Keith Law: The hamate doesn’t help but he’s also never shown the same game power in pro ball as he has in BP or in college.

Bryan: What kind of player is Dereck Rodriguez going forward? Is he just a great story or a legit mid rotation guy for the future?
Keith Law: Back end starter. Dude’s been extremely lucky – 4 HR allowed in 73 innings with his flyball rate isn’t going to last.

romorr: DL Hall should finish the year in A+, he is on fire his last 10 or so starts. Has he done enough to sneak into the top 100?
Keith Law: He was mentioned in my midseason prospects update.

John: Is Joe Simpson the worst or The. Worst.
Keith Law: He’s had a bad week. He’s also taken some shots at me over the years, so perhaps I’ll just let his words speak for him.

Nick: Any potential star position players (regardless of risk) in the Phillies system? They have the pitching but I’m skeptical about their position players.
Keith Law: I think Ortiz has a star bat but needs a position. 1B might work.

Joules: Thanks for the chats. What would you be asking for in return for Inciarte?
Keith Law: It’s whatever the market will return. He’s surplus now. They missed their ideal window to deal him.

Frank : Which WAR do you prefer, baseball reference or fangraphs?
Keith Law: I look at both.

Chris: Klaw, who is your leader for AL ROY right now. Thanks!
Keith Law: It’s Gleyber easily.

Kevin w : What do the reds need to do this offseason to be competitive in the next few years?
Keith Law: I don’t think they need to do something this offseason, but they need to figure out why their pitching prospects have fared so poorly in the majors or sometimes in AAA; and they need to get more out of Latin American scouting.

bob: Higher upside, Alex Kiralloff or Alex Verdugo?
Keith Law: Verdugo is the better athlete and defender. I feel more optimistic that Kirilloff will hit, though.

Jonathan: Is Nolan Gorman for real? The Cardinals seem to be really aggressive with him
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s aggressive given what he did in the Appy League and his raw power. Challenge him with better pitching; he’ll be better prepared for low-A next spring. Maybe he just had some draft-itis and is over it now that he’s signed.

Dana: Twelve K’s for CC Sabathia last night. How many more seasons does he need to pitch like this to be a HOFer?
Keith Law: He’s on the borderline already. Another two seasons like this would probably strengthen his case among the stat guys who argue for such players, myself included.

Jay: I was at the Nats game last night and was glad I paid to see Greg Gibson miss so many calls. Soto complaining was the culmination of many guys having an issue with Gibson.
Keith Law: Gibson had a horrible night calling balls and strikes. He should be better at his job.

Jerry: I find it interesting in that you expect umpires to put up with most of the abuse directed at them by players, even if the umpires themselves believe they are correct in their calls. Meanwhile, you summarily block anyone on social media with the gall to disagree with your opinions that are not always mainstream. Seems a bit contradictory.
Keith Law: Imagine being so stupid to think that these are equivalent. Being on social media is not my job, or part of my job, or even something ESPN requires of me. I don’t have to tolerate anything on there – and, dumbass, I only block people who are abusive. When people start swearing at me or calling me gay slurs or a see-you-next-tuesday, yeah, I’ll block them. And if Soto actually called Gibson one of those things, then he deserved to be ejected.

tim: Any concerns over Gore’s inconsistency in A ball this season, Keith? He seems to have one lights out start – then struggle. Still see him as a #1 starter?
Keith Law: Yes, I do. He’s 19 and has very little experience in pro ball.

Darnell: Is Peter Alonso’s future a DH? How do you like Andres Gimenez?
Keith Law: I like Gimenez but don’t see an impact bat there. Alonso is probably 60/40 DH/1b for me.

Guest: Now that Senzel is out for the year, do you think the Reds will say “he needs time to rehab” as an excuse to get an extra year of control next year?
Keith Law: Actually giving him three weeks in the minors in April is the right business move. I’m fine with that. I’d love to see him in the majors ASAP, selfishly, but I get it.

John : San Francisco/Palo Alto dinner recommendations?
Keith Law: Cotogna, flour + water, never been to State Bird but I hear it’s amazing.

Adam: What is the ceiling for Brusdar Gaterol? Been great so far this year.
Keith Law: I’ve heard closer/power reliever. Obviously you hope he can start but command isn’t close right now.

ZVN: Keith, you’ve been doing an exceptional job filling in for Buster on the BBT pod. I know you said you’re too lazy to do a pod every day, but would you ever be open to starting your own pod down the road? Doesn’t even have to be all about baseball. You’d definitely have a subscriber here. I’ll hang up and listen
Keith Law: Thank you! I do enjoy my week as guest host each year.

Kevin w : Would monopoly make your top 1000 board games?
Keith Law: Yes assuming I just ranked every game I’ve ever played (which has to be something like 300 by now)

Aaron C.: How would YOU handle Jesus Luzardo? I’ve read elsewhere the A’s will shut him down when he reaches an (post-TJ surgery) innings cap. Would you let him throw his last, say, 12 innings in a couple of starts in Oakland?
Keith Law: I would probably shift him to a long relief sort of role so he can get a cup of coffee in September and help lengthen the big league staff. I do worry about the breaking ball being fringy for the majors, but this is how you find out.

john: Will Daz Cameron have the same power like his Dad?
Keith Law: I doubt that.

Kevin w : Betts the 2nd best player?
Keith Law: For me, yes.
Keith Law: Javy Baez being first, of course.

KC: Do you see the Royals Nicky Lopez as a MLB regular at SS, 2B, or neither.
Keith Law: Don’t think he’s a regular at SS, but the bat is probably good enough to play everyday somewhere.

Carlo: Thoughts on Deivi Garcia? Is there significant reliever risk there?
Keith Law: There is, given his size, but I believe he has very good spin rates on the FB and breaking ball, and the results are tremendous. Probably won’t see him till next year when he gets to Trenton.

romorr: What has happen to Cody Sedlock? Heard he was overworked in college.
Keith Law: He was badly overworked in college, and the O’s didn’t help matters after he signed. He’s never been right since then.

Wes: I know he’s far away, but does Vidal Brujan have enough hit tool to project as a big leaguer?
Keith Law: Pure hit tool makes him a big leaguer. Needs something else to profile as a regular.

squeeze bunt: I swing back and forth between thinking the country will be ok, and that everything is falling apart. Are we going to be ok as a country?
Keith Law: Although I am truly not a pessimist by nature, I think we have done enough damage internally that we will never be the same and will be worse off for years if not decades from what Trump and his followers have wrought.

Tommy: Hey Keith, love your chats. Who do you feel has the higher ceiling – Luzardo, Sheffield or Mize? Do you feel all are future #2’s or do you think one is in a seperate tier from the others?
Keith Law: Again, ranked all three guys here in my midseason rankings, with ceilings discussed.

Chris: Is Erik Swanson more of the righty version of Josh Rogers or Montgomery (not in style but in terms of MiL stats vs outlook)?
Keith Law: Yeah, sounds like 6th starter type.

Jon: Keith, do you think parents/Little League coaches will try to start coaching things like incline angle, spin rate or defensive shifts? How long would you think it would take for stuff like this to trickle down so that it could be done knowledgeably?
Keith Law: I think there are absolutely parents and youth coaches doing this crap already. They shouldn’t.

AM: I have a serious question. I’m not bipolar and I’m not depressed. I don’t think I have a mental disorder but there are times where I will randomly think I just want to literally kill myself and 3 seconds later that urge is gone. It doesn’t happen often maybe once every two weeks. Is this something I should be concerned about for my mental health?
Keith Law: Yes. You should absolutely go talk to a doctor about this. I’m happy to help people who reach out with mental health issues, but what you describe is too serious for me to try to tackle as a non-professional.

Denis: Have you heard any reporting on Julio Urias? Is he still capable of being a #2 starter?
Keith Law: Eric Longenhagen has seen him and reported that Urias’ velocity is way down. I said when Urias had the surgery that he was likely done.

John : Thoughts on Bryan Mata? High walk rate at hi-a, but still only 19
Keith Law: Big arm but reliever with that slot/delivery.

Chip: Any update on Victor Victor Victor Victor or whatever his name is?
Keith Law: Still not cleared. Also your prose is too prolix.

Chris: Any thoughts on Jeff McNeil? Still an org guy?
Keith Law: I don’t think I said he was an org guy. I don’t think he’s a significant prospect or a regular.

James: Has that cutter suddenly made Nathan Eovaldi a $12M guy? Is he worth even more than that?
Keith Law: He’s worth more. And it all seems very real.

PHS: If you’re Ross Atkins, do you attempt to trade Donaldson now for any kind of prospect return, or is it better to hold on to him and see what happens this winter? My meaning there is, should they consider a one-year offer at roughly the same salary as this year (as a rotating 3B/1B/DH?
Keith Law: You offer him, and if you don’t like the return, you wait till November and make the QO. There is no reason to hold on to him now if you get a decent offer.

Chris: You may have seen that Bon Appetit just named (the OG) Portland as food city of the year. You may need to come up, even though we are, as you said, above the arctic circle. (it is 86 here rn btw)
Keith Law: I haven’t been there in ages, too, but there’s not a great work reason when the Sea Dogs come near me so often (and they’re light on prospects right now).

Aaron: Seems there are very differing opinions on the strength of the jays farm system. Im surprised to see them ranked top 5 in a couple of rankings. Seems they are top heavy but once bichette and Vlad are promoted they likely are a bottom third system. Thoughts?
Keith Law: They’re not a top five system. That just isn’t credible.

Joe: Has your evaluation of Tyler O’Neill changed after his AAA performance this year?
Keith Law: No.

cm: I know you likely aren’t sure who will be #1 overall next year, but is this an up year (Harper type), down year (Beckham type), or in between year for the #1 overall pick?
Keith Law: Very down year.

brian: Didi Gregorius can’t hit a pitch on the outside part of the plate. Also swings at everything. EVERYTHING. You can get him out by pitching up and away and down and away. He had a great April – then every single pitcher saw the same thing and he hasn’t hit much since. Can the Yankee announcers stop referring to this as a “slump?” It;s not a slump. And Boone batting him 3rd or 4th everyday is just plain pandering to the left/right crowd.
Keith Law: Since May 1st: .246/.297/.397. I didn’t realize his OBP was that bad; he’s still walking a bit so I thought he was at least providing more value there. That’s bottom of the order shit right there.

BMosc: Clarke Schmidt. Projection?
Keith Law: I missed him by a day in Aberdeen; in college, I thought he was a huge injury risk because of the delivery, good to great stuff, real competitor, could throw strikes but would have trouble with command too. He blew out, not helped by misuse at SC, but as far as I know the delivery is the same.

Chris: over/under MLB Justin Dunn starts in 2019: 15 (im taking over w that tenuous mets staff)
Keith Law: I think/hope the over.

Bryce Harper: What do you think I get in free agency this year?
Keith Law: If you finish strongly, the way you’ve hit the last five weeks, you’ll still get a huge deal, some 8-year $200MM+ contract, but I think Machado is going to be the king of this market.

Joseph: Could you compare and contrast Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint?
Keith Law: Very different guys. The only things they have in common is that they’re RH and both pitch for Atlanta. I like both with Touki having the higher ceiling.

E J : Chance that Luis Patino makes your post/pre season top 100 ? How are his off speed pitches developing ?
Keith Law: Slim.

Mike: I know you had Jose Ramirez just outside of your top 100, but he wasnt too highly rated as a prospect by many. Why did so many overlook him?
Keith Law: Little guy who never showed anything remotely close to this kind of power potential.

Brett: Royals owner David Glass has been quoted recently indicating he believes Royals should be contending again by 2020. Was this a comment directed at the GM to avoid a long rebuild or an indication of a lack of awareness of the status of the organization and their talent?
Keith Law: I mean, that’s not going to happen. I can’t tell you what Glass had in mind.

Thom Yorke: When you say “backed up” do you mean regression? In terms of a prospect’s stuff being backed up.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s what the term means.

Ben: Spice Island closed, unfortunately. But try BRGR, Spoon, or Morcilla!
Keith Law: well that sucks. Just shut the city down, then.

Aaron C.: Have you heard what, if any, MLB award vote you’ll have this year? Continuing the rich tradition of NL ROY?
Keith Law: I can only assume so. I don’t necessarily mind, since prospects is my thing, but I also wonder what’s motivating the pigeonholing.

Chris (Chicago): Keith, Mike Bates put out an interesting article the other day about the history of ticket prices in MLB and their potential effect on attendance today. The conclusion was that while baseball is in no sort of financial danger, there is a long-term consequence to the high-cost of tickets (including failing to create new fans). I was just curious about your thoughts on pricing? Is it something about which the league should be concerned enough to do something?
Keith Law: I think MLB teams price tickets rationally, to maximize revenues in the short term. If the league thinks as Mike does, that this hurts the game long term, then they might want to figure out how to subsidize lower-cost tickets in the bleachers or nosebleeds.

Brian: Deivi Grullon was once a prospect. He’s having a big AA year and the splits are fairly even. Is he on the prospect radar at all?
Keith Law: No, he’s terrible. He can really throw, but that’s about it.

Trey: Why the hell does Trump go after LeBron? I actually agree with some of his policies but why oh why does he do the dumbest shit and go after the most popular athlete in the US who is actually very impactful to his community?
Keith Law: I mean … you’re so close, Trey … it’s just … just reach a little bit father…

squeeze bunt: Do you have a way to measure quality of contact of someone in the Arizona league? For example, Xavier Edwards is hitting like 400, but is he legging out infield singles, or hitting solid line drives?
Keith Law: The teams may have some trackman data on that but otherwise you’d want to ask the scouts or coaches at those games. I won’t do any of that till the fall, when the season is over.

Sally: Is Juan Soto better than you imagined? MVP type ceiling?
Keith Law: Of course he is – if I’d imagined he’d do this, he would have been in my top 3 prospects this winter. MVP type ceiling.

Henry: Red Sox have Sale, Bogaerts, Martinez, Porcello, Kimbrel, Betts all becoming free agents in the next 2 seasons. It’s unlikely they sign them all. What do you think they do? Or should do?
Keith Law: You try to sign Betts and Bogaerts, the two youngest and the two position players on the list.

Todd: Thoughts on Yankees Luis Medina, Garrett Whitlock and Devi Garcia?”
Keith Law: Medina has enormous stuff (one scout told me he saw 100 mph, another saw him get knocked around and unable to finish one inning).
Keith Law: He’s got the highest ceiling of those three, but he’s also quite far away. I’ll try to see Whitlock soon but he was an SEC product overmatching younger A-ball hitters. His first AA start (in April) was a disaster.

Rob: Will you be doing a GenCon write-up? What was your favorite new game?
Keith Law: Yes it should go up today or tomorrow at Paste. No spoilers.

Ben: Between Willi Castro & Sergio Alcantra, do the Tigers have an everyday regular shortstop there? I think Wenceel Perez has the most upside, but is a ways off from the bigs.
Keith Law: I’m a big Castro fan. One of him or Alcantara should be a regular there.

Richard: Can Ryan Borucki stick as a back end starter?
Keith Law: Yes.

E J : Is Quantrill struggling due to the lack of development with the breaking ball, the straightness of the fastball, all of the above ? Anything else ?
Keith Law: FB velocity hasn’t held up post-2016, and he doesn’t really get on top of the ball well enough or extend over his front side like he should..

Fred: Nobody can honestly back Urban Meyer at Ohio State, right? I mean how the hell could they value wins more than domestic violence victims? I’ve actually had people tell me that Urban is the victim in the whole thing… WHY? HOW?
Keith Law: Because football. I’ve got people in the queue here trying to argue that he did the right thing (just like Paterno truthers).

Dawg: David Bote, Phillip Ervin and Jeff McNeil all are hitting pretty well in small samples. Any hope that they can become solid regulars?
Keith Law: Bote has the best bat of the three.

Danny: Have you heard anything on Shervyn Newton? Apparently that Kingsport team is stacked
Keith Law: Yep, Dutch kid, signed for just $50K two years ago. Trained in Curacao. Great feel for the game, so I’m not shocked at the plate discipline, but he’s really hitting with some impact. That Kingsport team would be really fun to watch if I could figure out where Kingsport is.

addoeh: Regarding Werth, what FO person told him not to bunt against the shift? Don’t do it all the time but once in a while in the right situations would help.
Keith Law: Right? Wouldn’t any analytics people recommend doing that, if only as a game theory sort of response to the shift?

Gus Johnson: Is there a disconnect in the value of relievers? Good ones command a premium in the trade market but are don’t seem to be as valued in the FA market.
Keith Law: Those trades tend to be in-season and thus tactical moves for September/October.

Chris: Speaking of Wander Franco, can we get a definitive ranking of the Wander Francos?
Keith Law: Well the one in Tampa is a superstar and the others are not.

SeanE: Hi Keith. Not sure you and I would ever agree much in the political arena but just wanted to say I very much enjoy reading all your material, baseball and non baseball, alike. Do you agree however, that the rhetoric from both sides has gotten totally out of hand? What has happened to the days when politicians like Reagan and Tip O’Neill could sit down at the end of the day with a drink despite going to battle over policy issues.
Keith Law: I don’t agree. I think the current administration and the establishment wing of the GOP has adopted so many policies endemic to despotic regimes – the stuff Hannah Arendt documented in The Origins of Totalitarianism – that no rhetoric can condemn them strongly enough. Bothsidesism only makes the problem worse.

Trevor: Ankiel throwing 89 in an exhibition game. Do you take his comeback at 39 seriously? Could he get a ST invite or a minor league contract next year?
Keith Law: I’m absolutely rooting for him.

Keith: With no offense to my second cousin, I tell people I’m named after you. Who are you named for?
Keith Law: Nobody that I’m aware of, although my middle name is from my mother’s father, who died before I was born.

Brett: Not defending the level of defense spending, but maybe the reason for the lack of border disputes is correlated to how much we invest in our defense?
Keith Law: We have two borders and both are with countries with whom we have extensive, inextricable economic links. That might have more to do with it than anything else.

Joe: Hey Keith, thanks again for the chat. Can you settle a question for me? If you had to start a franchise and could pick between Severino or Nola as being your Ace, who would it be?
Keith Law: I feel better about Nola long-term, even though Severino is the better pitcher today (the last six starts notwithstanding).

Xavier: Any shot Vientos or Kelenic starts next season in full-season ball? What do you think of those guys?
Keith Law: I like both and think both start in Columbia.

JP: I LOL’ed at a guy who called you a “virtue signaller” on Twitter last weekend. Funny how that term has developed into a put-down used to “burn” anyone who expresses an interest in equality. At this point, you’re telling on yourself by even using that term aren’t you?
Keith Law: That’s my take. I don’t care if anyone thinks I have or lack “virtue.” I do care about using my platform to do an ounce of fucking good in this world before I lose it.

Matt: Moncada is on track to break the single season K record. Do you think he still lives up to his All-Star potental?
Keith Law: I have been the relative skeptic on him – still ranking him in the top 20, but never buying him as the #1 prospect or even a top ten guy. His swing and miss issues are real and were always predictable. He has enormous athleticism and upside, but I couldn’t predict he would get to it. I would still bet on him having a long career as a regular who is very up and down year to year.

E J : With 2 AZL teams, are there any emerging prospects or deep sleepers for the Padres generating interest among scouts that might have 50 FV?
Keith Law: No, it’s a lot of filler to make sure the prospects have guys to play with.

Chris: My one goal this summer has been to make a peach pie (I aim high to be sure). I’m a fairly decent cook, but have never baked anything in my life. I’m armed with an America’s Test Kitchen/Cook’s Country book. Should I try the crust recipe (which seems terribly complicated, particularly to someone like me who has never made a crust before) or just buy pre-made? If the latter, how much will it affect the taste/consistency of the pie?
Keith Law: Stella Parks’ pie crust recipe is the easiest reliable recipe I know. Very easy, doesn’t require any fancy techniques.
Keith Law: It’s on seriouseats.

Buddy the Elf: What’s your favorite color?
Keith Law: Living Colour.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: In your opinion, is an animals life less valuable than a human life? I ask because I know your stance on veganism, and you’re a rational man, but I think you don’t give a strong enough stance on factory farming. If you give equal weight to all sentient beings, isn’t our actions towards animals one of our gravest moral ills?
Keith Law: I don’t give equal weight to all sentient beings. An animal’s life is not equivalent to a human life. Our cat just died a few weeks ago of cancer. We did not operate or try expensive treatments. We were extremely sad to lose him, but the grief afterwards has not been close to the grief we faced when beloved human family members or friends have passed away. So I don’t really know where you’re coming from – and if you think I haven’t railed against factory farming, you haven’t been reading.

Carlo: What do you think of xwOBA? Do you think we’ll end up seeing certain players who consistently out perform or underperform their xwOBA — kind of like with FIP?
Keith Law: Someone – Russell Carleton, I think? – wrote a piece showing that these x-stats don’t predict future performance well enough for us to use them.

Steve: There is no active place to leave comments for the chat. Where am I supposed to ask my questions?
Keith Law: Um … right here?

(I’m pretty sure Steve was joking.)

Jeff: Did you ever think Scooter Gennett was capable of putting up 2 seasons like he has recently? I’d be shopping the shit out of him this winter.
Keith Law: I did not, and I can’t shake the sense that a lot of this is ballpark-fueled. I would shop him too. His value isn’t likely to ever be higher, and they have bats in the system.

Joshua: Hi Keith, with the Nats still hovering around .500, and still 6 games back, should they start selling now? Seems to me that Murphy, Gio, and Madson should be able to get back something “meaningful” in return. Thanks.
Keith Law: Too late for that. Besides, I think they should be going for it.

mike honcho: who are some names you are expecting to see in the AFL this year?
Keith Law: I am hoping we get Tatis Jr., Vlad Jr., Robles (if not on the playoff roster), F. Whitley (ditto), maybe G. Whitley?

Russ: Thanks for the chats. We have a son who is going to be a HS freshman this year. What is more important in the summer: large national tournaments or playing on the best team………or some combination of both.
Keith Law: Playing, having fun, not playing too much, and if he’s a pitcher not throwing too much.

Dallas: I’ve been watching old Top Chef seasons (the first season I saw was the 1st All-Star season) and realized the show peaked in Las Vegas with the Voltaggio brothers, Kevin Hubbard, and Jen Carroll. They’ve never had a group of chefs like that season and probably have no chance to ever get that much quality again. I understand now why you’ve given up on the show but at the same time wish you would come back.
Keith Law: That was definitely the best season, although the All-Star season where Blais won was pretty great too.

Michael: The cooking show completely misunderstands why hunger exists. It’s the economic system that keeps people in poverty and hungry, not a lack of food. And the amount of food used on all cooking shows combined is still a pittance.
Keith Law: I agree, although food waste is pretty terrible too. Colicchio tweets about it often, so I am hard-pressed to think Top Chef is just composting all that stuff.

Angelo: When a guy like Oscar Mercado has “average at best speed” but consistently steals 30+ bases in the minors, how does that usually translate at the major league level? Do you think he can steal 20+ bases as a regular with what his speed is?
Keith Law: It may indicate that he’s particularly skilled at stealing – at reading pitchers, picking his spots, etc.

Bort: Is it time for the Astros to move McCullers to the pen permanently?
Keith Law: I think so.

Adam: I know you have been skeptical on Newcomb at times due to his walk rate. It seems he has progressed further and further. Are you buying now?
Keith Law: No.

AJ: Do you regret asserting that it was “absolutely racist” to include the 6 HOF members of the 90s Braves (who happen to be white) in a roundtable interview? It’s wrong, clearly, as being in the HOF and being in Cooperstown last week were prereqs for the interview. But it is also unhelpful for the cause of racial justice that you (and me and many others) promote. It undermines legitimate claims of the racism you thought you were seeing.
Keith Law: The obstinacy is stunning. The “prereqs” themselves were the problem. Those guidelines were not handed down by God or encoded in the laws of the universe. Someone chose criteria that excluded all players of color. They could just as easily have chosen other criteria that put at least one person of color in that room – but they didn’t. That is a failure of representation. And your comment is a failure of critical thinking.
Keith Law: I’m out, there’s only so much dumb I can take in one sitting. Plus my car needs its annual oil change. Thanks for all the questions and for reading, as usual. I should be on a regular Thursday chat schedule this month unless there’s a day game I need to hit. Look for my Gen Con wrapup soon over at Paste.

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The Lost Time Accidents.

John Wray’s The Lost Time Accidents is yet another novel that someone recommended to me months ago, maybe longer, but I have long since forgotten who it was who suggested it – or maybe I made that up and stumbled upon a review of the book elsewhere and liked the sound of it. I was unfamiliar with John Wray’s work previous to this, and he’s clearly a brilliant thinker, well-versed in science and philosophy, but the book never quite seemed to provide the payoff in terms of plot or character, especially not around the central mystery of time travel that is too enmeshed in the core story to end up without any real resolution.,

Waldemar is the central character and narrator of The Lost Time Accidents, the latest generation of a family that has been obsessed with the physics of time travel – treating time as a fourth dimension of space that can be manipulated in the same way as the first three – since at least the time of his great-grandfather. Waldemar’s antecedents have included physicists and cranks, as well as one man whose work inspired a Scientology-like cult convinced that he’d solved the secret of time travel. In the twin narratives, Waldemar repeats his tortuous family history, and explains that he is currently somewhere else, exiled from the timestream, unable to return to it, and unaware of how or why he’s been kicked out of time in such a fashion.

For a book ostensibly about time travel, The Lost Time Accidents has remarkably little time travel in it – and the few mentions of it therein are of questionable veracity. Waldemar was raised in ignorance of the family’s history of time travel experiments, or, in the words of his mother, of mental illness, but is eventually drafted into the obsession with time travel by his eccentric aunts, one of whom has pursued time-travel physics in secret for decades in the New York apartment the two women share.

The similarities between The Lost Time Accidents and Infinite Jest work to the former’s detriment, in large part because it’s so hard for any writer to live up to the standard set by the polymathic David Foster Wallace in his sprawling, wryly comic magnum opus. Wray obviously has a strong layman’s grasp of the theories of general and special relativity, but the story is much stronger when he’s covering the weird cult that has sprung up around the Accidents and Waldemar’s father, and the hints that these people are all just seriously delusional, Waldemar included. (Wray’s previous novel, Lowboy, has a schizophrenic protagonist, so this may be a focus for him. I haven’t read any of his other works.) I interpreted this novel as a sort of test for the reader – do you think any of this is real, that Waldemar’s great-uncle, his aunts, or his father had some insight into time travel? Is Waldemar actually trapped outside of time (but obviously not space), and is any of what he sees there real?

The DFW comparison is more favorable to Wray on an analytical level, given the somewhat aimless storyline, as Wray plays with words and concepts around time. Ottokar, the ancestor of Waldemar who starts all this nonsense, makes pickles for a living by fermenting them, the classic method of preserving food using microbes and a little time to allow the fermented items to defy time by avoiding decay. Waldemar’s father is named Orson Card, a rather obvious reference to the Mormon science fiction writer behind Ender’s Game, and Orson’s works become the foundation for a Scientology-like cult. The very title of the book plays with the modern factory-safety idea of “X days without a lost time accident” while alluding to Proust’s opus on time and memory, In Search of Lost Time. It is as if Wray had a bucket overflowing with ideas for allusions and references to time and its effects, and decided to stuff as many into the book as it could handle, then decided to stuff the rest in there too. That makes it an interesting philosophical novel, one that left me with plenty to ponder after it was over, but I wanted more plot and character development than Wray was able to provide.

Next up: Nearly done with Dan Simmons’ The Fall of Hyperion.

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→ August 5, 2018
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Stick to baseball, 8/4/18.

For Insiders this week, I had a slew of trade writeups:

I also held a Klawchat on Wednesday before I headed off to Gen Con 2018. You can see some of the photos I took there, the country’s biggest board gaming convention, on my Instagram. The writeup will come later this week.

I’ve been better about sending out my free email newsletter lately after slacking a bit during the spring (in large part because I can’t use the site’s editing function on an iPad), so, you know, do that signup.

And now, the links…

  • Longreads first: The hard-to-believe true story of how an ex-cop led a conspiracy to rig the McDonald’s Monopoly game.
  • The Guardian rank a lengthy excerpt from a new book on denial and denialism, Keith Kahn-Harris’ Denial: The Unspeakable Truth. The excerpt covers a lot of ground, describing why denialism is more than just the denial of truth, why facts tend not to stop or change denialists’ minds, and the dangerous new phase of denialism before us.
  • The Verge has a longread on the gaming of Amazon’s listings and sales system by self-published romance authors. It’s just a bizarre subculture, and has led to a lawsuit over two authors’ use of the word “cocky” in their books titles. The journalist who wrote this piece, Sarah Jeong, just joined the New York Times editorial board; Vox, which owns the Verge, has a great piece on the non-troversy that alt-right trolls used to try to get her fired.
  • The Rumpus’ editor Lyz Lenz writes that writing still matters in the age of despair. Write like a motherfucker, as Cheryl Strayed (Wild) once wrote.
  • Why would the University of Michigan allow the presentation of “research” on homeopathy? Homeopathy is woo. After you dilute the substance in question that many times, all that remains is bullshit.
  • The Minneapolis Star-Tribune editorial board called on the state to crack down on doctors who spread anti-vaccine lies, as California is trying to do.
  • There’s a huge Dunning-Kruger epidemic in the anti-vaccine community, which has also managed to diverted time and funds away from more important vaccine research towards needless studies debunking claims like the nonexistent vaccine/autism link.
  • Spike Lee accused the President of giving the green light to the KKK and other hate groups during a wide-ranging interview with the Guardian about his upcoming film Black Klansman.
  • Gizmodo details how two strangers tried to wreck an Alabama realtor’s life by spreading a false story about the realtor sleeping with someone else’s husband.
  • The Washington Post looks at the board game Twilight Struggle’s new relevance in this political environment. I happen to find the game wildly overrated; it’s long, hard to set up, and requires intimate knowledge of the two player decks to play it well.
  • This Psychology Today essay assailing the ‘lack of resiliency’ of today’s college students seems to me to paint with an excessively broad brush, and contradicts the message we give our kids today to reach out when they need help. I’m also a little skeptical of the veracity of some of the stories – they sound like they were crafted for viral tweets – but even if they’re true, I’d rather too many kids ask for help than too few.
  • The anti-LGBT group Alliance Defending Freedom has been working to undermine basic protections for LGBT citizens, especially trans youth, using disingenuous and even dangerous language.
  • Former big leaguer Adam Greenberg, whose MLB career consisted of two PA, one in 2005 and one in 2012, is now running for Congress in Connecticut as a Republican. The fact that he’s turning to politics is interesting in itself, but the NY Times author here, John Altavilla, spends almost no time on Greenberg’s policy positions.
  • Would-be populist – and clear Islamophobe and race troll – Ben Shapiro is backed by a wide network of billionaire conservatives, many of whom also support more reviled figures like Ann Coulter and the Breitbart site.
  • Turning Point USA, the hard-right conservative group founding by diaper-clad college students, has been courting and praising anti-Semitic troll Bryan Sharpe, who has denied the Holocaust occurred and uses the triple-parentheses notation favored by white supremacists to identify or out Jewish people.
  • These QAnon people are batshit insane.
  • The Pennsylvania gun rights lobby watered down a bill aimed at keeping domestic abusers from obtaining guns.
  • The Washington Post profiled New York Times publisher Arthur Sulzberger, although the piece doesn’t question him enough about their opinion pages.
  • An Astros fan wrote an open letter to the team’s GM, criticizing the decision to acquire Roberto Osuna.
  • There’s a new shape in town – really, totally new to mathematicians and physicists, but something that appears in nature: the scutoid.
  • An “Instagram star” – seriously, how the fuck is this a thing – is in hot water after her cookbook included ‘recipes’ likely to sicken or kill people who try to eat those dishes. One example that would be obvious to anyone who knows food is the advice to forage for and eat raw morels. A good editor is important; a bad one can lead to a PR disaster. Also, maybe don’t give someone who just takes nice pictures a cookbook deal.
  • Jack White (ex-White Stripes) is now the co-owner of a baseball bat manufacturer.
  • And finally, a video, as comedian Aamer Rahman explains why there isn’t any such thing as “reverse racism:”
    • Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: , , , , , , , ,
    → August 1, 2018
    → By

    Klawchat 8/1/18.

    I had a slew of Insider posts around the trade deadline, including:

    I’ll be at Gen Con 2018 in Indianapolis from tomorrow through Sunday, including a scheduled book signing on Friday at noon. If you can’t get me there, feel free to reach out and I’ll make sure I find you during the con.

    Keith Law: Throw away your calendar. It’s Klawchat.

    Dr. Bob: Tommy Pham was my favorite STL player. Played hard. Spoke his mind. Made no excuses when things weren’t going well. Cards wanted Archer. I don’t understand why they wouldn’t pay the price of a couple of prospects along with Pham and signing money to get him. Totally baffled.
    Keith Law: I understand moving Pham to make room for Bader and perhaps O’Neill (Mercado, whom I mentioned in the Pham write-up, was later traded to Cleveland). I don’t quite get moving Pham but not addressing another need on the major-league roster. And Pham was so popular and active in the community, in addition to just being a good player, that it feels like a larger loss for the team to move him and not replace him with someone just as good.

    Brendan: Through the years, have any of the minor league players you write about in your columns ever reach out to discuss your evaluations of them?
    Keith Law: Very rarely. One was upset I said he projected as a fourth outfielder. It turned out he didn’t even become that in the end. I’m happy to discuss my evaluation with a player, as long as it’s offline. There’s no upside to having that discussion in public.

    CT Pilgrim: The Nats stood pat yesterday. Does that make any sense? Either improve the team for the 2018 run, or move some lesser pieces (Murphy, Gio, etc) for 2019.
    Keith Law: If the Nats believe they can catch one or both teams ahead of them this season with the roster they have – I do – then it made sense.

    Brian: The Yankees signed a cluster of IFA’s who received significantly less than the other IFA’s ranked near them. Is this just the Yankees IFA machine at work, or could another IFA package deal situation (similar to the Red Sox a couple years back) be in the works?
    Keith Law: My reaction was that they locked up these kids a while ago, and their perceived values have gone up since then. Remember that for most July 2nd IFAs (non-Cuban), teams and agents strike oral agreements when the kids are 14 or even younger.

    Miles from somewhere: I suggested this on Twitter, but I really dug “Sorry to Bother You” and think it’s worth an add to your list. Thanks all the writing, baseball and otherwise.
    Keith Law: It’s on the list. August and September are much better for getting to the movies than July is.

    David: How long would it typically take to alter a starters routine to convert them to the bullpen (thinking about Touki in September) and do you think this sort of late season change could be detrimental to a pitchers development or even heighten injury risk?
    Keith Law: I don’t think it takes any time to alter the routine in that direction, but I wouldn’t use Touki or any full-time starter as a one-inning, two or three days in a row reliever.

    JR: As a Mets fan (TIA for your sympathies), I’m happy they didn’t trade any of their key guys yesterday because 1) the return they got for Familia was so light I was worried they would get fleeced and 2) they have a 3 headed GM right now. Would rather wait until offseason when one GM is calling the shots to trade key guys.
    Keith Law: I 100% agree with point 2. They have to let the new GM shop deGrom, Thor, or whoever else.

    Bob: On a scale of one to ten how excited should people be about the rays wander Franco
    Keith Law: He was in my top 20 as a 17-year-old in the Appy League. That’s pretty rare territory.

    Amy: When teams trade international bonus $, does $ actually change hands or does the receiving end just have permission to spend more?
    Keith Law: It’s permission to spend more. It’s like trading a draft pick – you don’t get the slot money associated with the pick, but you get the right to take another player, and your total bonus pool increases.

    Robbie: Any thoughts on the pitchers the angels received in their two deadline deals?
    Keith Law: The Boston guys are probably middle relievers at best. Sandoval is a spin-rate guy, probably a reliever too.

    john: what did you think about the return for Leonys Martin in Willi Castro?
    Keith Law: On top of this post, I have links to all of my trade writeups from this week, and that trade – I like Castro and explain why – is in the ‘other prospect deals’ post.

    Mike: Hey Keith, I’m an Atlanta fan has barely seen Gausman throw. I remember the hype and breakout potential you and others have talked about. What do you think he has to change to reach the potential?
    Keith Law: A consistent spot on the rubber (and thus delivery), and a better/more consistent slider. The first is easy, the second isn’t.

    Kraig: Despite of adult age the whole time Gen Con has been in Indy I’m going for the first time this year. No real plans, just exploring but any tips/advice/suggestions on navigating around?
    Keith Law: It’s pretty huge and thus overwhelming. If you just want to explore, the main show floor has booths of just about every major publisher where you can see demos or protoypes of new/upcoming games. There’s also a huge open gaming room next door, with some scheduled events/tournaments, and some places you can just find a game to join.

    JD: Is the Chris Archer deal about this year or the coming years? Seems like a big haul to give up to just finish less out of the playoffs than they otherwise would have.
    Keith Law: I thought both that and the Kela deal were more about 2019-20.

    Ryan: Do 10-5 rights apply to trade waivers? What’s to stop Baltimore from letting Jones go to Philly via waivers and then a trade in the offseason where the prospects end up in BAL anyway for someone who would’ve been non-tendered?
    Keith Law: This has been a debate with the union for as long as I have been in the business. I think they do apply – Jones could reject the assignment and/or file a grievance.

    Pat: How many more boxes does Eloy have to check? Is this a service time game Rick Hahn is playing?
    Keith Law: What service time game? If he’s not calling Jimenez up now, he’d have to wait until mid-April next year. That’s a long time to stall a guy’s development just to get an extra year of control at some point after the world ends.

    Jeff: With everything that has happened this season in Washington, does Rizzo return in 2019?
    Keith Law: I can’t see why not.

    Bubbles: Good afternoon! I have a question about two players but what I’m asking is a broad question. Barring some injury, do you believe Nick Senzel and Luis Urias will both get 500+ PA in the MLB next season?
    Keith Law: Senzel is already injured, so I have no idea what his outlook is for next year. Urias will.

    kyle: There are a lot of Twitter and chat room tough guys, but has anyone ever come up to you at a book signing to tell you to stick to baseball?
    Keith Law: Never. But many, many people at every signing thank me for *not* sticking to baseball.

    john: I don’t have a question but I just want to say how disgusted I am with the Astros. This whole Osuna thing is gross and I know I shouldn’t be surprised but I guess I wanted to believe my favorite team wasn’t this shitty. I don’t know if Luhnow really thinks we’re all idiots but his attempts to justify it are ridiculous and insulting and the whole thing honestly makes me want to not watch them anymore this year.
    Keith Law: I’m most bothered by the trade. I’m also bothered by the disingenuousness that accompanied it. Just fucking own it. “Yep, we traded for a guy who (very likely) assaulted a woman, because we think he’ll help us win another World Series.”

    Dougie: The most likely outcome for Mitch Keller is what? Mid-rotation? Would you bet on more or less?
    Keith Law: I don’t think that’s a likely outcome. He’s either better than that, or he’s in the pen because he never develops a third pitch.

    Jeremy: What do you think of the Rangers adding almost exclusively pitching prospects in the draft and via trades? I know they’re a organization that has struggled developing pitching. They’re trying get as many spins at the roulette table they can in developing one, but does it seem too narrow-sighted?
    Keith Law: Seems like it was a real organizational weakness coming into the year, so I’m not troubled by it.

    Anon: A few weeks ago I attended a family wedding of a distant cousin that was about an hour and a half away. Once the processional started, I noticed the groom and all the groomsmen had boots emblazoned with the Confederate Flag. I was really bothered by this and even contemplated leaving, but because of circumstances decided against it, and just didn’t look down the rest of the ceremony or reception. It wasn’t until during the reception that we noticed they were also all carrying sidearms throughout the ceremony and reception. What would you have done in this situation?
    Keith Law: I would have left. You don’t have to make a scene, or even tell anyone. I just would have walked out.

    Alan: Blake Swihart suddenly is looking good defensively and hitting. Think Sox should continue to start him over Vazquez when he returns from injury?
    Keith Law: Yes. Always been a Swihart fan, until this run of injuries put his career in doubt.

    Greg: Do you think that the emergence of Gregory Polanco made Huntington comfortable with going all-in on this Pirates’ group? Aside from his horrid defense, he’s been hitting at a star-caliber level since June.
    Keith Law: I’ve been fooled by Polanco before, but in general I’m a believer – I think I still talked him up in a chat here in May? – and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if that was part of NH’s thinking, especially that they could afford to move Meadows because Polanco might finally be becoming a star.

    Kent: Huntington added Kela and Archer without surrendering Keller or Hayes. Huge win?
    Keith Law: Solid deadline.

    Andy: I’d like to get ahead of this. I was a dumb, teenage boy. I truly regret what I did, and I am in no way that person anymore. I purchased multiple Limp Bizkit albums.
    Keith Law: I’m not sure you’re sufficiently penitent for your sins here.

    Deke: You’ve mentioned how baseball is “work,” and in your off time you like to get away from work. Now that you’re doing board-game reviews, do you consider that more “work” than play? Are they less enjoyable now in general?
    Keith Law: Aside from rare exceptions where I play a game for review purposes, but end up disliking it, no. It’s still fun, and the responsibilities are really light anyway.

    Matt: Don’t think I saw a write-up of the Soria trade anywhere (please correct me if I’m wrong), was Medeiros a good return for the Sox?
    Keith Law: That was in another wrap up piece. Medeiros is probably a lefty specialist.

    Washington Nationals: Keith, any explanation for what the Nationals did by trading Kintzler to the Cubs, holding onto Harper, then DFA’ing Kelly? Is bringing up Suero really worth trading Kintzler, especially when the club is floundering around the .500 mark?
    Keith Law: Supposedly they traded Kintzler for talking to a reporter about the clubhouse dynamic. I have no additional insight on that. Kelley more than earned his DFA, though.

    Lucas: I had heard from a source internally that one of the reasons Pittsburgh felt okay in dealing Meadows is because they’re very happy about the progress Jason Martin has made this year. “While he doesn’t have Meadows upside, we felt the distance between the two combined with our current OF situation made Meadows expendable. Thoughts on Jason Martin?
    Keith Law: Extra OF.

    Dave: Who was the best prospect traded at the deadline?
    Keith Law: Mejia.

    JP: Biggest non-trade surprise? Harvey?
    Keith Law: Not just a surprise, but nonsensical. The Reds absolutely should have traded him.
    Keith Law: They can’t trade Swaggerty until October, and he can’t be a PTBNL (nor can any player they just drafted). So it’s not him.

    Justin: Do Jordan Luplow, Jason Martin, or Bryan Reynolds strike you as particularly interesting these days? I’m curious if i can slap a “Pirates LF of the future” label on any of them now that Meadows isn’t in the picture.
    Keith Law: Always been a Reynolds fan. Still not sure where the power is – but I’ve noted before that the Pirates in general don’t seem to develop power hitters, or more specifically, they don’t seem to get power from their guys who have some raw but don’t show it in games.

    Ryan: Conforto, Rosario & to a lesser extent Dom Smith haven’t done much this year. Smith is SSS but has your opinion changed on Conforto or Rosario for their future?
    Keith Law: No, esp with Conforto clearly not 100% physically. I hate how they’ve handled Smith. Rosario is just young.

    Alex: What kind of upside does Luis Garcia have. Seems to be holding his own as 18 year old in high A.
    Keith Law: Physically underdeveloped but more than everyday upside. Has blown past Antuna.

    Brendan: Bellinger: has the league figured him out, or is this what he is with last year an aberration?
    Keith Law: He turned 23 two weeks ago.
    Keith Law: Like, guys come up, do well, struggle, make adjustments, rinse, repeat. If he’s 27 and still struggling, different story. A lot of hitters his age are still in the minors.

    Matt: As a Tampa native I’m slightly biased, but what areas across the country do you find to have the best collection of amateur baseball talent?
    Keith Law: Southern California is by far the strongest. Central Florida and Georgia are probably next. I think Texas is overrated for strength of talent – it’s dispersed over such a wide area and large population that it doesn’t match those other states.

    AGirlHasNoName: Can you explain what to make of the Brewers infield going forward? None of Moustakas, Shaw or Schoop are shortstops, right?
    Keith Law: Correct. I don’t know why Brewers fans were telling me Schoop will take over at shortstop. He was a shortstop and he was not good.

    Orion: Can Harrison Bader be (or is he already) an above average regular in the Cardinals OF? Seems like one of those guys who has no eye popping tools but is average in everything, which makes for an above average total package.
    Keith Law: Yes, fourth OF floor, everyday regular most likely, above average/non-star ceiling. And I think he’s ready.

    ben: How do you personally maintain hope in today’s world?
    Keith Law: There are many, many kind people in the world, doing kind things for others, in your life and in the broader world around us. I focus on that and try to be that way in my personal life too.

    Rich: Really love my Anova…just have the Bluetooth. Should I have gotten the WiFi version? May have to gift mine. Seems like a smart idea to start the water an hour before I get home…what says you?
    Keith Law: I have the bluetooth. Never needed the Wifi function myself.
    Keith Law: Of course, I work at home. I get to do more things in the kitchen.

    SeanE: Neal Huntington said the PTBNL in the Archer deal is a player of “significance”. Why would they wait to announce this 3rd piece?
    Keith Law: Could be that the player in question is on the DL. Could be that the two sides haven’t settled on the player and have only agreed it will be 1 of N players on a list, although I don’t believe that is the case here. Not sure what other reasons there might be.

    Shroud: Orioles fans are mad over not receiving multiple top 100 guys for their superstar pitcher…Kevin Gausman. They’re new to this “rebuilding” thing, huh
    Keith Law: The O’s also dumped O’Day’s salary, which reduced the return in prospects.

    Nick: Most underrated deal of the deadline?
    Keith Law: That Cardinals-Cleveland prospect swap. No one cared because there were no major leaguers. You can just inject those trades right into my veins, though.

    Seath: have you watched any of the Facebook exclusive games yet? What do you think of them? Do you think this is eventually where the game is/should head?
    Keith Law: I have not. I don’t need fan commentary on the game … or any commentary, really. I’m just here for the baseball.

    Dan: Kohl Stewart has put together some nice starts recently. Can he still become a viable starter?
    Keith Law: He hasn’t, though. Still throws strikes with no out pitch.

    Nolan: What’s your most memorable case of a fan base really sticking it to you for not thinking their fringe prospect was a future star? Junior Lake stands out to me, for some reason.
    Keith Law: That was one. Lot from Cubs fans on Brett Jackson, too. Jays fans with Rowdy Tellez.

    Matt: How much have Alec Hansen’s recent struggles impacted your projection of him?
    Keith Law: Dude wasn’t healthy most of the year. It would be absurd to ignore that and just judge him on his performance without that context.

    James: Do you see the O’s being the winners of the Victor Victor Mesa sweepstakes once he’s eligible? What can you tell us about him?
    Keith Law: I know reports that they had a deal with him have been debunked. I’ll write something up when he signs.

    Garrett: Were you surprised by Adell’s promotion to AA? His BB and K numbers aren’t too good.
    Keith Law: I thought it was too quick from a performance level, not just from BB and K, but he wasn’t producing that well the last few weeks (actually his BB and K rates were up in July, everything else was down). But maybe they wanted to get him to a specific coach? Or away from certain parks? There can be non-obvious reasons for promotions with exceptional talents like Adell.

    Drew: You saw Logan Davidson? Would love to hear your thoughts. Saw him this summer and didn’t see the hype myself
    Keith Law: He looked bad, and so did just about all of the other top Cape hitters I saw last week, other than Bleday from Vanderbilt. The Cape talent in general was kind of awful.

    John : 2014 ALCS contestants KC and Baltimore are now locked at the bottom of the league standings. Who do you believe reaches post season first
    Keith Law: Orioles have done a lot more to turn the roster over. Royals’ system is well behind that, even with the big college pitching draft (which I as a regular attendee of Blue Rocks games greatly appreciate).

    Chris: Given Harper’s relative struggles this season, what kind of contract would you offer him this offseason? Potential good buy low (if buy low is still $200M+)?
    Keith Law: If he doesn’t finish strongly, look for Boras to try to do a Beltre/Boston pillow contract for him.

    Rob: Padres MLB club starts seeing results in… 2020? Seems like 3-4 players called up early in the year 2019. Gore/Tatis/Baez in 2020?
    Keith Law: If Tatis is okay post-injury – maybe Fall League? Please? can we get him and Vlad Jr? – then he’ll be up next year. Baez could be later in the year. Gore might be 2021, depending on how they build up his workload.

    Nick: I know you were a fan of Mark Vientos coming into the draft last year. He is having a solid year so far in the Appy League. What type of player do you see him developing into? Is he a solid defender at 3B?
    Keith Law: Small sample so far but I’m thrilled to see him showing some power too. Solid defender at third trending up. Very promising. I’ve said before but I think some of the results bear it out – their drafts are not the problem, and recently they’ve been quite good. Dunn has broken out. Peterson had a little dead arm deal but has been very good most of the season. Vientos looks great. I’m way in on Kelenic. Alonso is something. And from the international side Ronny Mauricio is getting a lot of buzz as a potential star. I know #lolmets is a thing because of the ownership situation but the outlook from their farm system is not bleak.

    Brian: Hi Keith thanks for all your work! Only reason I’m an insider sub.. What is the rationale for MLB not allowing the trading of draft picks? The other major sports allow it.
    Keith Law: In the 1980s MLB feared small-market teams would just sell/trade the picks rather than pay the exorbitant demands of drafted players who were looking for bonuses of … (checks notes) … $100,000.

    Rick: Trea Turner seems to have made a heartfelt, tearful apology as well as vowing to work for organizations to go against bullying and such. Ready to forgive him?
    Keith Law: His was the best apology yet from any of these players.

    Nick Howard: What is my deal exactly? am I a non prospect, or still a chance?
    Keith Law: Got the yips, not a prospect any more.

    Steve: Could you explain why the international money that the O’s received as part of the Gausman trade was not part of your analysis? And what is T25 in regards to your Schoop tweet yesterday?
    Keith Law: They didn’t receive international money; they received slots, described above. And that’s all that is – a slot, the right to spend money, not an actual player. How would you like me to evaluate that?
    Keith Law: If you don’t know what T25 is, you might be pronouncing Schoop’s name incorrectly.

    Chan: The Marlins decided to hold onto their three relievers who had trade value. Are you surprised? Should they have lowered their demand to retrieve at least something?
    Keith Law: Unless the market was so saturated with similar relievers that they got garbage offers? I thought Yates would be next out of San Diego, but I don’t think they got any decent offers.

    The Boxes Are Checked: Gut feeling- do Jimenez and/or Kopech debut in MLB this season?
    Keith Law: Kopech in particular needs to come up this season. Let him face major league hitters and see if they force him to throw more strikes. He’s just going to blow AAA guys away the longer he’s down there.

    Dave: Does the player to be named later in the PIT-TB deal most likely mean he was a 2018 draft pick and not been w/ PIT long enough to be traded yet?
    Keith Law: Again, that’s prohibited.

    Kevin: Apparently Tampa wouldn’t trade Archer to San Diego unless they got Paddack or Patiño. Is it safe to say Patiño has passed up guys like Baez and Quantrill in the Padres system? What’s Patiño’s ceiling?
    Keith Law: Patiño has not passed Baez or Morejon or Lawson. He’s still got a lot of reliever risk too. Quantrill has regressed since that first summer.

    Brian: It was great to meet you in Acton on Saturday. Thanks for coming out and answering questions. You discussed gausman and the orioles messing with his mound placement/delivery. Do you think ATL has the specific people in place to help gausman or is it more of any team has a better chance to help him than where he’s coming from?
    Keith Law: Yes, I’ve thought Gausman would be a perfect change of scenery candidate for a while. Even getting to a new coaching staff without the baggage he’s had might help.

    Dr. Bob: If I understand the rules correctly, the Reds will not get a compensating pick for Harvey when he leaves at the end of the season (he is a FA, right?). If that’s true, why in the world do they not trade him? They sent players to NY to get him so that he can help them finish this season not as far in fifth place as they otherwise might have been?
    Keith Law: Right. I don’t understand not trading him.

    SeanE: Couldn’t the Reds just move Harvey in August? His velo has ticked up significantly recently. If he has a few dominant starts could he maybe fetch more?
    Keith Law: He can be claimed on waivers and then the Reds have no leverage in negotiations.

    Mat: If you had to rank Edmonds, A. Jones, Lofton and Bernie Williams in a pecking order for the Veterans Committee (even though Andruw isn’t on it…yet), how would you rank.
    Keith Law: Edmonds, Andruw, Lofton, Bernie, in that order. Edmonds would have made my ballot had I been a voter at the time.

    Tony! Toni! Toné!: Just following up on my Swaggerty/PTBNL question. I know you technically can’t trade players in his situation, but isn’t that what a PTBNL is often used for? For involving guys in deals who can’t be officially traded yet.
    Keith Law: You literally cannot trade a drafted player, even as a PTBNL, until after the World Series in his draft year. It’s colloquially called the Trea Turner rule.

    John: So you’re saying you’d rather have Eloy in the majors for the rest of this season and next April instead of having him for the 2025 season? Why?
    Keith Law: 2025? Where will you be then? What kind of team will the White Sox be at that point? Who’s the GM? The owner? Meanwhile, if you have a player whose development appears to require a promotion to the majors, you’re merely wasting time if you leave that guy in the minors. (I feel more strongly this way with pitchers, since projecting any pitcher to stay healthy for seven years is like playing roulette with a crooked croupier.)

    Matt: Without looking at your book lists, have you read the Three Body Problem trilogy? I’ve never gotten into sci-fi, but the books are incredible, especially the scale of subject matter that it tackles and the big-picture issues it tackles. If you have read these, do you have any similar recommendations?
    Keith Law: The first one. Very good, despite the weird unfolding-of-the-proton ending. But it didn’t compel me to continue either.

    Matt: Did you read that article about hackers were able to hack voting booths in less than 2 hours? This seems…problematic.
    Keith Law: I did. It is. Especially since there’s a foreign government that has a demonstrated interest in messing with our elections, and our own Administration thinks it’s just so darn cute.

    Rich: Even though their talent is awful on the ML team, would you hang on to Andy Green, or should the Padres look for someone else to mentor the youth that will be coming up?
    Keith Law: I like Green. He’s not part of the problem and I think when the roster improves and gets younger he’ll be part of the solution.

    Anthony: Re. Keller: would you ever be comfortable projecting a fastball-curveball guy as a starter (even if changeup never comes) because curves tend to be platoon-neutral?
    Keith Law: Fastball-breaking ball guys do not tend to be platoon-neutral.

    JR: Why do teams with good records/teams that exceed expectations always tend to have good chemistry (per the media), while teams that disappoint/don’t play up to talent level have bad chemistry (also per the media)?
    Keith Law: Because cognitive biases are everywhere.

    Rex: Some people consistently beat the market. Just because you can’t do something doesn’t mean other people can’t.
    Keith Law: The people who ‘beat the market’ in the last N years almost never beat the market again in the next N years. Maybe never.

    Donald: Hey Keith, thanks for doing these chats. Last week, you said “xwOBA doesn’t work”, I’m not trying to argue it does and you are wrong, but I was just curious if you could elaborate on that a little more and explain why it doesn’t work.
    Keith Law: I can’t find the link but someone – Russell Carleton, I think – showed that they don’t actually predict future wOBA (or whatever the stat is in the x-stat).

    Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Saw something yesterday how TB pitching coach Kyle Snyder, being a large, ex-pitcher himself at 6’8″, is a “savant at helping pitchers understand and control their bodies” and could be a huge help to Glasnow and helping him to learn how to better control his levers. Think that’s noteworthy at all?
    Keith Law: I think it’s a delightful idea without proof or even evidence.

    Aaron: Allard looked pretty crafty last night, even if the results weren’t great. Should I be worried about him missing enough bats?
    Keith Law: Yes, if you want more than a 4th/5th starter. Averaged ~89, didn’t throw his CB as much as I expected.

    Yuan: Just read your take on Tyler Austin being moved – do you think he still has a chance to redeem himself or is the inability to hit offspeed too much to overcome?
    Keith Law: He hasn’t shown any adjustments to the slider yet. If he does, great, he can be a regular. If not, well, he can join the multitudes who never did figure it out.

    mike sixel: How good can Alex Kiriloff be, and when could we see him in MN? thanks,
    Keith Law: That kid’s a star. I think he’s going to make more than a few All-Star teams if he stays healthy.

    JR: I know most of the anger/frustration with our current Pres is directed directly at him and his admin, but I’m shocked how many individuals are willing to carry out all his racist/hurtful policies (oftentimes with glee). I couldn’t grab a parent and deport them. I couldn’t pull a child away from a parent and send them to a separate facility. I just couldn’t do it, yet there are so many people who are willing to “just follow orders.” It really baffles me.
    Keith Law: Seemingly ordinary people had no problem rounding up, torturing, and killing Jews in World War II. Seemingly ordinary people had no problem grabbing machetes and hacking their neighbors to death in Rwanda in the 1990s. All it takes is a good ‘othering’ by the people in charge. That’s why i want Twitter and Facebook and Youtube to cut the crap already and kick the neo-Nazis and conspiracy theorists off their sites.

    Joel: I think you have referred to research regarding organic foods vs. traditional. And gmo/non gmo products. Do you have those links? Personal thoughts?
    Keith Law: I’ve posted lots of those links over the years. There’s no difference between GM and non-GM foods. Your body has no idea if the sucrose came from GM sugar or not. It’s like an intelligence test for consumers – if you pay more for non-GM, or demand it, you failed.
    Keith Law: Organic is another matter. It’s not healthier, not per se. There aren’t pesticide residues all over your non-organic produce. But organic agriculture may be better for soil health, water retention, even carbon sequestration in the soil. And animals raised for organic meat, dairy, or eggs can’t be given antibiotics, which is a real and critical public health issue.

    Justin : Are Moniak, Rutherford, Ray anywhere close to your top 100 as of now?
    Keith Law: No, no, possibly.

    Mike: At this point if any player gets caught with old offensive tweats or anything else bad on social media they should immediately fire their agent. It’s not an excuse for the behavior but how can an agent of competence not go through every social media account from day 1 and make sure there is nothing there?
    Keith Law: How could they blame their agents for what they tweeted themselves?

    Jason: The rumored SD package for Archer of Patino/Hedges/Renfroe — If that was on the table, SD would/should have jumped on it, right?
    Keith Law: I would have done that, yes. I don’t believe that is accurate.

    Scott of Lincolnshire: So Baez…………he might finish in top 5 of MVP this year. I recall him taking forever to heat up at every level of promotion in the minors too. Sustainable? Probably not, but i can’t quit him. Ever
    Keith Law: Why would you quit him? He might be the most fun player to watch in the majors right now.

    Marissa: Hi Keith. Kind of random but I am wondering your thoughts on Plawecki because I know that you were higher on him than d’Arnaud in the past. He had a good ending to last season and has been pretty average in terms of catchers this season. Do you see him being a starter still or not really?
    Keith Law: Yep, a regular, not more than average at peak, but probably about that for a while.

    NYTT: Re: Veterans Committee. If Andruw didn’t have the domestic violence incident, would he be ahead of Edmonds?
    Keith Law: I feel better about Edmonds’ career than Andruw’s, since the latter was basically done at 31.

    Spencer: Florial has crushed since coming back. SSS but where do you think he should be playing now?
    Keith Law: Right where he is.

    TF Fredrik: Do you find it interesting how all american sports are set up as a type of, not sure right word but, “socialism” for the benefit of smaller markets? Reverse order draft, revenue sharing, salary cap, compensation picks…etc. What do you think a completely free market in baseball would look like?
    Keith Law: Totally unfettered could result, I suppose, in teams operating their own huge farm systems and hoarding players, a bit like Rickey did with the early Cardinals teams before other clubs caught on. But a more free market wouldn’t necessarily steer all talent to big-market teams because they have limited roster spots and playing time to hand out. I’d love to see a modified draft that made the top 10-15 players in each draft class free agents.

    Kevin: I am an ESPN Insider member specifically to read your work, and very much enjoy reading your comment. As a Padres fan I understand your argument for Trevor Hoffman not being a Hall of Famer, but was disappointed that you would tear him down during his induction. Why not just move on from it now that he was already voted in?
    Keith Law: I didn’t tear him down. Simply not true.

    Seth: Is Dereck Rodriguez for NL rookie of the year at this point or at least well in the conversation?
    Keith Law: It’s pretty clearly Juan Soto right now.

    Tom C: Re: the seemingly ordinary people. One of my favorite movie quotes of all time is from Tommy Lee Jones in Men in Black: “A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky animals, and you know that.”
    Keith Law: It’s a great line because it’s accurate.

    Seth: Joey Bart is tearing it up so far. Is he above the level he is at or is there anything to make from his performance so far
    Keith Law: He’s a college dude in short-season ball. It doesn’t tell us anything.

    Andy: Has there ever been a draftee who demanded a no trade clause?
    Keith Law: That is no longer permitted. NTCs mean major league contracts and teams can’t give draftees major league deals.

    Chris: Has Richie Martin regained some prospect status this season? He’s hitting at least well enough for a shortstop.
    Keith Law: He’s not a good shortstop though.

    scrapper: I’m in a Strat o Matic league and I traded a few weeks back for Osuna in a deadline deal. Should I feel bad? Obviously it’s not real but I still wondered
    Keith Law: That depends on how many woman fans your Strat team has, I suppose.
    Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for reading, as always. I’m off to Gen Con tomorrow, so unless there’s a surprise trade my next Insider content will come next week, along with a chat next Thursday. I hope to see or even game with some of you in Indianapolis!

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    → August 1, 2018
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    Music update, July 2018.

    July seemed like a weaker month for new music than we’ve had in a while, but it’s possible that after my vacation and around some trips I missed some good new releases, too. If you can’t see the widget below, you can access the Spotify playlist here.

    TVAM — These Are Not Your Memories. Joe Oxley, the producer/musician who records as TVAM, is new to me, although he’s released a few singles going back to 2015. This track, from his forthcoming debut album Psychic Data, is shoegazey and atmospheric, but with a clear, defined hook, and some bravado to it that’s generally absent in shoegaze music and its spiritual descendants.

    Spirit Animal — The Truth. Another artist with whom I was unfamiliar before this song, Spirit Animal, a four-piece act from Brooklyn, produce guitar-driven rock that calls back to classic rock but with hints of funk and metal mixed in. This track has a wonderfully dark riff behind the verses, then shifts to a soaring and funk-tinged mode for the chorus.

    Slash — Driving Rain (feat. Myles Kennedy & The Conspirators). Slash has been churning out memorable, heavy guitar riffs for thirty years now, but because his style of music hasn’t been cool since the late ’80s, he’s never really gotten the respect of other similarly talented guitarists. He has a clearly defined sound, evident here even through the fairly generic vocals – if you like Slash’s work, you’d probably pick this out (no pun intended) as his doing right away. It’s not “Slither” or Appetite-level work, but it’s more than just a nostalgia trip.

    Greta Van Fleet — When The Curtain Falls. GVF get lots of praise for their Led Zeppelin-derived sound, but I’ve found them more akin to Kingdom Come, imitators rather than spiritual descendants, especially with the lead singer’s falsetto sounding too much like Lenny Wolf. (I’ll admit to a strange fondness for Kingdom Come’s one hit single, “Get It On,” though.) This is the best track I’ve heard from GVF so far, powered by a memorable guitar riff.

    The Twilight Sad — I/m Not Here [Missing Face]. I could have sworn I included a Twilight Sad song on a playlist a few years ago but can’t find it. This Scottish (as if you couldn’t tell) duo seem to have drunk deeply from the spirit of Joy Division, early Smiths, Editors, and others in the tradition of depressing new wave-inflected music … but with more energy than they’ve shown in previous singles.

    Death Cab for Cutie — I Dreamt We Spoke Again. DCFC’s ninth album, Thank You for Today, drops on August 17th; it’s their first album without guitarist Chris Walla since 1997. This is the second single and lead track, not as immediate as “Gold Rush” but very much in line with their peak output from the first decade of the 2000s.

    Maisie Peters — Best I’ll Ever Sing. The now 18-year-old singer/songwriter behind last year’s “The Place We Were Made” is back with another track, this one driven by piano rather than guitar, once again showcases her sense of melody and adorable voice.

    Interpol — Number 10. That’s now two promising singles ahead of Interpol’s forthcoming album Marauder, due out August 24th.

    The Golden Age of TV — Television. TGATV, a five-piece indie-rock act from Leeds, has released three singles so far, this the strongest (and most rock-tinged) to date. There’s an anthemic vibe that feels like it was written to open a concert, with the lights coming on just as Bea Fletcher’s vocals kick in.

    Cut Chemist — Work My Mind. Cut Chemist, formerly one of the DJs in the rap collective Jurassic 5, reunites with Chali 2Na here for the best track of CC’s latest album.

    The Internet — Roll (Burbank Funk). The Internet, who may win any competition for the least google-able band name on the planet, earned a Grammy nod for their 2015 album Ego Death in the ‘urban contemporary’ category; I’m not sure what that term encompasses or excludes, but this song sounds like a modern twist on P-Funk to me and I’m good with that.

    Jungle — Heavy, California. This English soul music collective, who had a hit in 2014 with “Busy Earnin'” and made my May playlist with “Happy Man,” will drop their second album, For Ever, on September 14th. They’ve released two other tracks from the album, “Cherry” and “House in L.A.,” but both are more downtempo and not my speed.

    St. Lucia – Walking Away. It seems like St. Lucia’s sound is evolving further, this time in a more positive direction than their disappointing last album (aside from its lead single, “Dancing on Glass”), between this and “A Brighter Love.” The B side to that latter song, “Paradise is Waiting,” isn’t bad either, although the faux-gospel chorus is a little hackneyed for me.

    Alkaline Trio — Blackbird. The Chicago punk trio veered off into more alternative territory with some of their early 2000s releases – “Help Me” is probably my favorite song of theirs, off 2008’s Agony & Irony – but they returned to their roots with their 2013 album My Shame Is True. “Blackbird” is more of the same, the lead single from their upcoming album Is This Thing Cursed?, due out on August 31st.

    Mudhoney — Paranoid Core. Never change, Mark Arm. Never change.

    Horrendous — Soothsayer. This Philly-based quartet is producing by far the most interesting and sophisticated music of any American death metal band going – it’s technically proficient, musically progressive, and apparently the lyrics are pretty smart too, not that I can understand a word they’re screaming. Their 2015 album Anareta was Decibel‘s top LP of that year, and Ecdysis was the same magazine’s #3 album of 2014. Idol is due out on September 28th.

    Omnium Gatherum — Gods Go First. Omnium Gatherum are Finnish but hew closely to the Gothenburg school of melodic death metal, with progressive and thrash elements along with strong musicianship. Their eighth album, The Burning Cold, comes out August 31st.

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