keith — Page 49

→ April 17, 2021
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 4/17/21.

For subscribers to the Athletic, I ranked the top 50 prospects in this year’s MLB draft class, a list I’ll expand to 100 in early May. I had to skip the chat this week due to travel and the two-hour round trip on Thursday to get my first vaccine dose (Pfizer). I’ll do one this week.

On The Keith Law Show this week, I had our Padres beat writer Dennis Lin on to talk about Musgrove’s no-hitter, Tatis Jr.’s injury, and more Padres/NL West news. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify. I also co-host our daily baseball show every Friday, and on this week’s episode we talked about Rodon and a number of pitchers who appear to be on the rise.

I appeared on the Huddle Up with Gus Frerotte podcast to talk about my book The Inside Game, now out in paperback. I also spoke to Chris Phillips, Associate Professor of History at Carnegie Mellon CMU, about The Inside Game in a half-hour conversation for the CMU Alumni Association.

If you’d like to buy The Inside Game and support my board game habit, Midtown Scholar has several signed copies available. You can also buy it from any of the indie stores in this twitter thread, all of whom at least had the book in stock earlier this month. If none of those works, you can find it on Bookshop.org and at Amazon.

For more of me, you can subscribe to my free email newsletter.

Longreads first: This New Yorker post on a suicide cluster at a small Midwestern college, and whether one person who knew all the victims was somehow responsible, is extremely well-reported and written.

The Burmese genocide of the Rohingya is a massive humanitarian tragedy, but there are other consequences to ethnic cleansing, such as the loss of native foodways.

Does urban planning produce ‘bad cities?’ Is there a third way to balance the need for affordable housing and the desire for certain aesthetics in design?

Earlier this month, evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins tried to claim that acceptance of transgender people means we should accept so-called “trans-racial” people (like Rachel Dolezal). Here’s a rational response to that sort of argument.

Polygon has a column that tries to explain why the Muppets have had a hard time catching on in recent years.

Why did a Queens judge dismiss a DWI charge and seal the case against a Bronx ADA who crashed her car into a line of parked vehicles? Does everyone charged with a DWI get that treatment in NYC?

Jorge Cham, aka Phd Comics, has a great comic strip on the recent discovery of an anomaly in the behavior of muons that might break the Standard Model of physics once and for all (but might not).

Could the pandemic lead to a massive drain of women working in the sciences? There’s a growing body of evidence that the pandemic and associated lockdowns have had a disproportionate impact on working women.

This is from a couple of weeks ago, but Islamist insurgents took over a town right near a Total natural gas installation in Mozambique – the largest foreign investment project in Africa to date.

I’m so sad that last week’s White Lives Matter rallies were a giant flop. (I’m not actually sad about it.)

A virologist who got the Johnson & Johnson shot explains why she’s not losing any sleep over the federal investigation into a very rare blood clot disorder that might (but might not) be caused by the vaccine.

The Atlantic’s tremendous coverage of the pandemic continues with Derek Thompson’s article calling for an end to hygiene theater now that the CDC has acknowledged that SARS-CoV-2 spreads through the air, not surfaces. My daughter’s school closes one day a week for “deep cleaning” that, it turns out, is unnecessary.

An immunological process called imprinting could make second- and third-generation COVID-19 vaccines less effective, although there are reasons why that may not be true for this particular virus.

Media Matters’ Bobby Lewis spent a month watching and documenting the racism and lunacy aired daily on One America News Network. If you have cable, you’re probably paying something for OANN whether you know it or not.

The Williams Institute at the UCLA School of Law has released a brief on the spate of anti-trans bills, especially those banning gender-affirming medical care, appearing in state legislatures across the country. These bills, if passed and upheld, are going to result in unspeakable harm to trans kids, including a more suicides, but they’re sold to gullible (or bigoted) voters under the guise of preventing “child abuse.”

Mississippi passed an anti-trans law and the NCAA might pull sports championships from the state as a result. Hard for me to believe the NCAA is on the right side of a progressive issue, but they are.

One of the officers who shot Breonna Taylor got a book deal from a small right-wing press; Simon & Schuster bowed to public pressure and declined to distribute it. I see a thorny issue here – we may all believe he committed multiple crimes, but without a conviction (he’s still on the police force in Louisville), I’m not sure what legal recourse there would be to stop him from writing about what happened, as vile as it seems.
Florida plans an “audit” of a state regulation that prohibited parents of children who suffered brain damage in childbirth from suing.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: africa, blm, coronavirus, longreads, new york city, racism, stick to baseball, trans rights, vaccines

→ April 12, 2021
→ By keith

The Oracle Year.

I’m not sure how I first heard about The Oracle Year, the first prose novel from graphic novelist Charles Soule, but I believe it was a positive review rather than a reader recommendation. It sat unpurchased on my wishlist for some time before I gave up and bought it myself, and then tore through the novel’s 400 pages in less than four days. It’s weird and improbable and incredibly compelling, with so much velocity to it that I could forgive its faults, and never could put the book down for long.

Will Dando is a more or less unemployed bassist who wakes up one morning with 108 oddly specific predictions about the future in his head, and when he writes them down, he realizes that the first few were accurate, so with the help of his friend Hamza, he dubs himself the Oracle, sets up a site (called the Site) to publish certain predictions, and sells a few others for a massive profit. This endeavor leads to substantial and largely foreseeable consequences, not the least of which is that he’s attracted the attention of the FBI, religious leaders, and a few other folks who would like to know his secret or just generally shut him down. For reasons that even he doesn’t fully understand, however, Will can’t just stop being the Oracle, even when it’s clear that doing so is his best shot to save himself, Hamza, and Hamza’s pregnant wife Miko, both of whom become deeply involved in the Oracle’s undertakings. Eventually, those predictions lead to real-world violence and many preventable deaths, sending Will into an existential crisis and opening up questions of free will, the inevitability of history, and just who sent Will those predictions in the first place.

The Oracle Year is nuts, and I mean that in a very good way. The pace never lets up, and Soule has managed to populate the book with interesting and strange characters – not many with depth, but at least with enough complexity to make them seem real on the page. There’s the Protestant televangelist Hosiah Branson, who fulminates against the Oracle from his pulpit, only to find that one of the 108 predictions is about him. There are two feds who clearly loathe each other but who have to work together to find the Oracle, because their boss says so. There’s the fixer named the Coach, the most intriguing and wonderful character outside of Dando – I’d read an entire book about the Coach, but I won’t spoil any details about them here. There are also a lot of people here who completely lose sight of their own humanity in trying to figure out who the Oracle is or what he’s doing or how to profit from his predictions, including, I’d argue, Hamza, even though much of what he plans as Will’s “business partner” turns out to be prudent. And then there’s Leigh Shore, the frustrated gossip reporter who latches on to the Oracle as a story and ends up (unsurprisingly) directly involved in the plot, a character who has one dimension, her ambition to get the story that will make her career, but it’s a good dimension for a character who ends up proving somewhat critical to the resolution of the story.

Where the plot goes is both extremely clever, reminiscent of good time-travel fiction like that of Connie Willis, and a little bit too easy. Soule has a very strong grasp of a storyline that could easily spin out of control, and brings back earlier elements to help close the story in a way that feels tightly plotted. He also has Dando and some of the other characters talk their way out of trouble that might not play out quite so easily in the real world – it’s not completely implausible, but at the least, Soule rushes through some of the dialogue where Dando (or someone else) argues a point and his antagonist concedes too quickly despite having the upper hand. It’s a small complaint for a novel that so engrossed me that I had to slow myself down to make sure I wasn’t skipping whole sentences, but I definitely got a sense near the end that I knew how this was all going to work out, and that it probably wouldn’t be wholly satisfying. But man did this thing hum along in a way few novels do, and Soule is obviously quite intelligent and tech-savvy enough to make some of the ways in which Hamza and Dando protect the Oracle’s identity credible.

Next up: Gilbert King’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel Devil in the Grove: Thurgood Marshall, the Groveland Boys, and the Dawn of a New America.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: contemporary novels, highly recommended, science fiction, speculative fiction, thrillers

→ April 10, 2021
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 4/10/21.

The Inside Game is now out in paperback! Midtown Scholar has several signed copies available, and you can also buy it from any of the indie stores in this twitter thread, all of whom at least had the book in stock as of Wednesday. If none of those works, you can find it on Bookshop.org and at Amazon.

I had two posts this week for subscribers to the Athletic, a draft notebook with some notes on the top of the draft, and a look at prospects from my top 100 who are currently on MLB rosters. I also held a Klawchat on Friday.

My latest review for Paste covers the pickup-and-delivery train game Maglev Metro, from the designer of Suburbia and One Night Ultimate Werewolf. I have some quibbles with the art choices but the underlying game is pretty great.

On this week’s episode of the Keith Law Show, I spoke to White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito about his transformation as a pitcher, from reworking his delivery to developing one of the game’s best changeups. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify.

I spoke to Chris Phillips, Associate Professor of History at Carnegie Mellon CMU, about my second book, The Inside Game, in a half-hour conversation for the CMU Alumni Association. For more of me, you can subscribe to my free email newsletter.

Longreads first: The best thing I’ve read in the last two weeks was Prof. Simukai Chigudu’s essay on growing up in the shadow of Cecil Rhodes, the repressive, murderous, racist colonizer for whom Chigudu’s native Zimbabwe was once named, and who is still honored with a statue at Oxford.
Derek Thompson writes at the Atlantic about Alex Berenson, the “pandemic’s wrongest man,” who wrote a very wrong book about cannabis and has now spent the last year being wrong about COVID-19 and, more recently, the vaccines against it. Berenson also bullies and harasses people on Twitter, name-searching himself and encouraging his followers to pile on.
“VC Lives Matter?” That quote from a venture capitalist trying to oust San Francisco’s reformer District Attorney is the most tone-deaf thing I’ve heard in some time. The story is really about a moneyed few trying to buy the government they want – the United States in miniature.
I’m not a huge fan of Brandi Carlile’s music, but this New York Times profile of her and partial review of her new memoir Broken Horses is excellent.
Delaware’s Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) features prominently in this article on how websites use deceptive techniques called “dark patterns” to fool users, as she has introduced legislation to crack down on the practice.
The Journal of the American Medical Association is embroiled in a scandal of its own making, as one of their podcast hosts dismissed the possibility that there might be racist doctors or racism within medicine, and they responded poorly to the backlash, too.
There’s a genocide going on in northern Ethiopia, led by the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize winner, Ethiopian President Abiy Ahmed.
The NYPD has a “goon squad” manual that explains how police officers can violate citizens’ rights to freedom of assembly, according to an investigative report from the Intercept.
Physicists at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory announced a new finding around the wobbliness of muons that appeared to be the death knell of the Standard Model – but another new paper might explain it within the Standard Model. Physics is fun!
The Anti-Defamation League has called for Fox to fire Tucker Carlson after he espoused the white supremacist dogma called the Great Replacement during his show on Thursday.
Dr. Peter Hotez writes that the anti-science movement is going global and thousands of people will die needlessly as a result.
And, shocker, white evangelical Americans are saying they won’t get vaccinated.
A gun in the house increases that someone living there will commit suicide – like 11-year-old Tyler Paxton did with his dad’s gun.
The economic impact of sporting events, like the MLB All-Star Game, is usually wildly overstated.
Prof. John Ioannidis had a significant, positive impact on the world of science in 2005 when he argued that most published research was wrong, as researchers only had to find statistical significance to be published, resulting in many false positives and conclusions that couldn’t be replicated. He has since become a COVID-19 denialist, and wrote an unhinged personal attack against two experts who dared question him, publishing it in the journal of which he was previously the editor in chief.
A bunch of right-wing grifters and pundits were tweeting at length about a Pakistani Muslim immigrant killed in a robbery by two Black teenagers, but Wajahat Ali explains why this was all done in bad faith.
A new neurological disease that resembles Creutzfeldt-Jakob Syndrome (the prion disease that you could get from eating beef from ‘mad’ cows) has emerged in the Canadian province of New Brunswick, killing 6 and sickening up to 38 others.
A longtime bartender at St. Elmo’s Steakhouse in Indianapolis died of COVID-19 after an outbreak at the restaurant. St. Elmo’s has been an annual stop for me during Gen Con, and I know it’s a favorite of many during the NFL combine.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: africa, anti-science, coronavirus, guns, longreads, religion, stick to baseball, technology

→ April 9, 2021
→ By keith

Klawchat 4/9/21.

Starting at 1 pm ET. I have a new game review up at Paste, of the pickup-and-delivery game Maglev Metro; and a new post for subscribers to the Athletic, looking at the top 100 prospects who’ve played in the majors so far this year.

Keith Law: A thousand times I’ve seen this road. Klawchat.

Richard: Early in their respective careers, you thought Correa and Bregman should probably switch defensive positions to highlight their respective strengths. Now it seems like Correa is likely to be paid as a top-flight SS…has he worked to improve his defense that much over the last 3 seasons?
Keith Law: He might be paid as one, but he’s not a top-flight defender at short; he’s probably a 45 defender who’s helped by shifting/positioning. I’m still going to rank him very highly as a free agent but with some expectation that he’ll move off SS over the course of a long-term deal.

Tom: If Tanner Houck’s increased velocity is sustainable, does that change your expectations for him, or is that more contingent on developing a change up to counter lefties?
Keith Law: The latter.

Moe Mentum: What improvements do the Phillies need to see from Scott Kingery at the plate to bring him back to the majors? Technical adjustments? Mental reset? And are you still a believer?
Keith Law: It’s a swing adjustment IMO. And maybe a mental reset but I can’t really speak to that from here – I do know his swing degraded first and the approach second. I am still a believer.

addoeh: So you recently tried Burmese cuisine. What cuisine do you plan to try next or is the biggest missing cuisine in your culinary passport?
Keith Law: I’ve tried to work in one of the two (I think) Ghanaian places I’ve heard good things about in the Phoenix area on some trips out that way, but it’s never worked out for timing, and one of the places had a lot of beef on their menu that limited my options, but that springs to mind as something I’ve never had that would also probably open my mind to some new flavors.

Hinkie: Hello, Keith. Looking forward to an updated draft prospect list. Since your initial rankings, what players have done the most for their draft stock and what guys are going in the wrong direction (other than Jaden Hill)?
Keith Law: Next week will be the new list, probably 50 names this time. I wrote in this week’s draft notebook that Frelick and Henry Davis are probably top 5 picks now. Andrew Painter has picked it up after two really awful starts to open the year. Jud Fabian continues to flounder – I said he couldn’t hit the slider and opposing teams appear to have heard the same thing. James Wood might end up at Mississippi State at this point; I heard he was hitting just a shade above .200. Also something is clearly amiss with Dick Fitts. He’s gone from first-round starter to a reliever who can’t get anyone out.

Ben (MN): Have you heard anything in the industry along the lines of the “Paul Molitor and Co. stunted Buxton’s development” narrative? I always wondered at the time because Buxton seemed to go up swinging at absolutely everything in his early days with the Twins (even though he walked a lot in A Ball), but nobody in MN wanted to criticize Molitor, the local legend. Now, even the Twins tv announcers are saying that Molitor’s insistence that Buxton be aggressive and hit the ball on the ground stymied his development.
Keith Law: I haven’t heard that myself but it seems plausible, at least.

Michael: My favorite team/player had a great first week! Ha! I knew you were wrong with your opinions based on “data” and “scouting”. I am vindicated! (By the way, I sometimes see the initials “SSS” in your chats – what does this mean?)
Keith Law: Joking aside, someone tried to tell me I was wrong about Ryan Mountcastle’s likely regression after Mountcastle got one hit on Opening Day. That’s a new record, I think.

Deke: How do you approach someone who is genuinely well-meaning but just patently wrong? Not in a Matt Walshian, bad-faith sense. Like today, the Senior Bowl’s Jim Nagy was pretty dismissive of the concept of racial bias in scouting QBs because NFL front offices only want to win, so they wouldn’t downgrade a guy just because he’s black, which is absurd on the face of it. How would you approach that without immediately putting him on the defensive?
Keith Law: I’m not sure you can do that without putting him on the defensive, but in my view the best response to that is data. Put him in a position where he has to say that he doesn’t believe the evidence in front of him.

Todd Boss: Kopech pitching in relief; would you have believed that the CWS wouldn’t have room for a 100-mph throwing strikeout machine starter?
Keith Law: I believe this is really a development strategy, both to build him back up to eventually start and help him build confidence as he continues to return after two years of not pitching.

Tom: Tyler Matzek for Atlanta. Failed starter but can he be a backend relief pitcher now?
Keith Law: Hasn’t he been that? Great story, too. I wonder how different his whole career might have been had another team taken him – getting more money in the draft came from high bonus demands that may have deterred teams from drafting him in the top ten.

Tom: Jon Grays fastball averaged about 92 last start. Any concern there?
Keith Law: I’d say I want to see at least 2 starts of reduced velocity before I’d be concerned, 3 before I panic.

Tom: Call Your Mother, my favorite dc breakfast place. glad you enjoyed it. If you like Georgian food, theres a place right across the street from CYM called Tabla. Highly recommend!
Keith Law: We went to a location of CYM in the suburbs but I can say I have never had Georgian food (assuming you mean the democracy-challenged country in the Caucusus, not the democracy-challenged US state in the Jim Crow belt).

JT: Long term, do you see too much swing and miss in Kjerstad’s complicated approach?
Keith Law: Without any adjustments, yes. I assume the Orioles will try at some point to make adjustments with him.

Jesse B: Is there something there with Yermin Mercedes?
Keith Law: A hell of a story.

Pat: So, about 2-3 weeks ago I was able to get the COVID vaccine even though technically not eligible. (Rural areas have too much supply, so I was able to finagle an appointment thru a contact). I felt guilty like I was “jumping the line”. Is that right or should it just be everyone get vaccinated as quickly as possible?
Keith Law: At this point, yes, everyone should get vaccinated as soon as they can.

HomerSomethingSomething: Do you think Garret Whitlock can stick in the Majors all year so he doesn’t have to be offered back to the Yankees? He’s looked good in Spring and in SSS this season.
Keith Law: Sure, as a two-pitch reliever with AA experience already, it’s not surprising he’d be MLB ready.

Pat: BTW, the joyous reaction of Akil Baddoo’s parents to his HR last weekend was one of the joys I’ve gotten so far this season. To watch your kid work for years & year (& for the parents to spend the $$ & drive him to all the practices/games/showcases) & get the payoff of him hitting a HR in his 1st MLB AB. It’s a lot of work & a long road, but, seeing your child succeed at the highest level in his chosen field has to be such an experience.
Keith Law: Especially in his case, where he hasn’t played since elbow surgery in May 2019.

Justin Y: Corbin Burnes has given up 2 hits in two starts, that cutter is devastating. He’s gonna be in the CY Young conversation isn’t he?
Keith Law: I said in September he might have been the best pitcher in the NL had he spent the whole year in the rotation and avoided the oblique strain he suffered, which cost him the innings he needed to make a real argument for the CYA. He’s a stud. Former #24 overall prospect in my rankings.

Mudville Nine: Hey Keith, really enjoyed Inside Game! I’m curious to know your thoughts on Russ Atkins 5 years extension with the Blue Jays. Obviously, Rogers ownership is happy with how Shapiro and Adkins manage their budgets but what do you think this tandem getting a guaranteed 5 years commitment to continue teambuilding?
Keith Law: Ehhh … I don’t think I have a strong feeling either way on this. This front office built a very strong farm system – about two years after they said they did – and that’s worthy of praise, but I also would like to see more on-field results in the majors.

HomerSomethingSomething: Mountcastle looked absolutely horrific on defense yesterday – probably cost the O’s 3 runs alone in that game. But hey, he hit a home run so that’s good, right?
Keith Law: I think he can be something if he’s just a 1b/dh who hits for power with a low OBP.

Jason S: If I said the Pirates have the worst assembled team of all time, and Dodgers have the best. How much of a reach is that?
Keith Law: You clearly didn’t see the 2003 Tigers.

Jesse The Body: Balazovic and Duran should be up at some point this year for the Twins, correct?
Erin: Is Simmons/Buxton the best defensive SS/CF combo in recent memory?
Keith Law: I would say yes on Duran, Balazovic maybe in September?
Keith Law: Good question, not a pair of positions we usually think of together, but that is probably true. Simmons is the best defensive SS post-Ozzie, and Buxton is probably the best defensive CF in baseball right now.

JT: Can we believe in Carlos Rodon again? I am not really a White Sox fan, but it’s hard to be against someone finally healthy and able to make good on unfulfilled promise.
Keith Law: I apologize for using the technical vernacular here, but his shit was ridiculous the other night. Averaging 95 again? 30 sliders with 8 whiffs in 11 swings and no balls hit fair? I just pulled up his K of Kyle Seager on 3 swinging strikes on sliders – two in the zone, one below it. Filthy.
Keith Law: I have NO idea if he can hold up, but this is basically the guy I saw at NC State as an underclassman.

Justin: Do you think the strategy of going under slot on a top pick in order to spend more later works? Should the Pirates consider this or should they just not get cute, and take Leiter instead?
Keith Law: You have to take the right guys, both in the first round and then later. The Pirates should take Leiter, though. There isn’t a good second choice right now.

Aaron: Do you get any info from teams regarding players that are currently at the alternate sites? Are those open to scouts or media?
Keith Law: I did last year, but I’ve been draft-focused the last few weeks, and those alternate site guys will be out playing minor-league games soon enough. I know at least some are open to scouts/media but I don’t think all are.

Oz: How do you feel about the 7 inning doubleheader rule? Atlanta and Washington played on Wednesday and I like the quicker games.
Keith Law: Hate it.

Mike: Hi Keith – thoughts on Rocker’s dip in velocity over his last few starts? A blip on the radar or more of a red flag?
Keith Law: I discussed that in my draft notebook this week.

Jason: Is it time to panic yet about Keston Hiura? He strikes out so much. I have hope but, maybe he needs a run in the minors?
Keith Law: That’s another guy who needs to restore an old swing (like Kingery). It’s frustrating to see a player who can hit, and did hit for several years in college and in the minors and even his first year in the majors, change an approach that worked.

Greg: If everyone can IMMEDIATELY see something was called wrong on replay, why do we have to sit there and be told something is “not reviewable”? Shouldn’t blatant and obvious errors be able to be remedied. It just feels like baseball being the stodgy old sport its detractors paint it as when they seem to be behind other sports in terms of technology, like replays.
Keith Law: That HBP should have been reviewable but they’d have to change the replay rules.

Cristian Javier: am I in the rotation the whole year? Can I be in contention for rookie of the year?
Keith Law: Yes, probably. No, because you’re not a rookie.

Beau: I realize we haven’t seen real games in over a year, but is Gore’s seeming lack of command/polish at this point in time concerning at all? (compared to absurdly high expectations)
Keith Law: No. call me when he’s pitching in real games.

Noah: Wife and I are both fully vaccinated, going to dinner tonight with another couple (one fully vaccinated, the other not and pregnant) at an indoor dining establishment with limited capacity. Currently having an anxiety attack, is that wrong?
Keith Law: I mean, I don’t think you’re doing anything wrong. I don’t understand your pregnant friend’s decision-making here.

Sean: Thoughts on Ty France? Was he not a prospect due to his limited defense? He consistently has the best at-bats on the team, and hits the ball to all fields. Is there something here?
Keith Law: Bench guy, but that’s probably it. No position and didn’t hit much in the minors until AAA El Paso (a good hitters’ park). Has value, though – could play a long time bouncing around as a bench piece who fills in at the corners (I don’t think 2b will really work).

Kevin: If Tatis misses a lot of time any chance Abrams will get the call up? The first part of this question made me cry.
Keith Law: I can’t imagine they would hold off all year on Abrams if Tatis does have to miss most of the season.

Tony: KLAW, I am having bad anxiety but not sure whether to go to a social counselor, psychiatrist, or clinical psychologist. No idea the difference neither. Any advice?
Keith Law: You want a clinical psychologist who uses evidence-based practices first.

Zack: Who do you like to make more of an impact in 2021 at/behind the plate, Tyler Stephenson or Alejandro Kirk?
Keith Law: Kirk but I like both guys.

James: How higher of a ceiling is the current Ryan Weathers who holds 96+ through multiple innings vs the previous Ryan Weathers who would bottom out at 89?
Keith Law: Well this version made my top 100 this winter and the last version did not. Difference between an above-average big league starter and a back-end guy at best.

Paul K.: Great review of Maglev Metro. Have you played Lost Ruins of Arnak yet? If not, it’s a lot of fun and plays well with two.
Keith Law: I have not – it’s on the long side, listed as 30-120 minutes, and even I as the biggest boardgamer in the house find my attention flags past about an hour and a half.

AnalyticsPlant: Is The Inside Game eminently more readable in hardcover or in paperback?
Keith Law: I’m speaking against my own self-interest but I prefer paperbacks. They’re just so much more portable.

Beej: As a scout, how do you evaluate bat speed with the naked eye when the difference between a quick bat and a slow bat may only be a few hundredths of a second?
Keith Law: I think it’s pretty easy to see the difference with experience.

Matt: How do we as a society deal with stupid people that have a major influence on others? Millions of morons believe Ted Nugent questioning why we don’t hear about Covid-1 to 18. You can look up how Covid-19 got its name in 3 seconds. Yet, a large group of Americans can’t be bothered to do so
Keith Law: Our public education system does not emphasize critical thinking … and plenty of right-wing nonprofits have been pushing for years to further deemphasize science and rational thought at all levels of education.

Zach: Word is Jonathan India has made big leaps behind the scenes the last two years. Did you hear the same, or is this all just small sample size?
Keith Law: I wrote about that in my top 100 this winter, which he was on.

Jeffrey: Gausman appears to be a much better pitcher with the Giants. Is this a credit to their pitching coaches or an indictment of Baltimore’s?
Keith Law: An indictment of Buck Showalter and his staff. They couldn’t stop messing with Gausman’s placement on the rubber. They messed up Arrieta’s delivery, wouldn’t play or even speak to Hays when he first came up … Elias et al inherited so much more than just a bad major-league roster.

BenL: I know the plan is to use him as a high leverage reliever this year to build innings for potential starter role in the future, etc etc., but do you recall anyone w/ the injury history of Alex Reyes becoming a relatively healthy, successful starter?
Keith Law: No, and FTR I always questioned whether he’d hold up given his delivery. He just had such great stuff I couldn’t ignore it, but in hindsight I should have been more conservative when ranking him.

Jeff: Should I worry about Soroka’s shoulder inflammation that shut him down for two weeks?
Keith Law: Yes because it’s not his first bout.

Chris: If rocker needs surgery how far would he slide in the draft?
Keith Law: I’m not anywhere near the point of thinking he needs surgery.

Joe: Trout mentioned he’s adjusted his swing in the off-season and it seems to have paid off with a slightly hotter than normal start….would you agree?
Keith Law: Yes, I was really concerned about the huge deficiencies in his game going into 2021.

Zihuatanejo: “Why do we hear so much about Malcolm X, and *nothing* about Malcolms I-IX?”
Keith Law: OK, that’s funny.

Beej: Is it fair to put Shane Bieber in the same category as Paul Goldschmidt as mis-identified prospect? I recall (apologies if I’m incorrect) that you had him pegged as a 4-5 starter who could be HR-prone.
Keith Law: I wrote him up as a guy I got wrong. He picked up more than a full grade of velocity after college, which is rare.

Deke: Listening to Monday’s pod right now, and how much did it hurt your brain to read an ad for “read nonfiction books condensed to 15 minutes”?
Keith Law: I read a lot of ads for products I don’t personally use. It’s part of the job.

TJ: In terms of Mountcastle and the Orioles probably not contending this year, is it worth playing him in LF and seeing if theres any possible development or is it not worth the bad defense to even try him in left?
Keith Law: Can the answer be maybe? As in, sure, it’s not hurting their playoff chances, but also, is it clear yet that it’s not going to work? When should they stop and say it’s not helping him or their pitchers who end up losing outs to his defense?

Mike Trout: Not judging at all — curious what changed that you felt comfortable taking your trip before getting vaccinated? I see a lot of people, sadly imo, struggling to adjust even after getting vaccinated.
Keith Law: My trip to DC/Maryland? I didn’t have to fly, and we didn’t eat indoors at any point. We were really only inside when in our hotel room and in one store. I don’t think we did anything unsafe to others and we didn’t feel like we put ourselves at risk.
Keith Law: (My wife is vaccinated, so it’s just me, really.)

Mac: Is Kumar Rocker falling out of the top 5?
Keith Law: No. Could he, yes. Is he right now, no, I don’t think so. But he might be the 3rd pitcher taken today rather than the second (Hoglund).

JR: How much of a sample size will you want to see before determining if mlb really did modify the baseball?
Keith Law: Rob Arthur wrote yesterday or the day before that the ball is livelier than ever. I’ll defer to experts like him.

Mac: Who is the first college position player drafted?
Keith Law: Davis or Frelick.

Moe Mentum: Two celebrated contemporary novelists who do not appear on your Top 100 Novels list are Bret Easton Ellis and Jonathan Franzen. I know that just because a baseball prospect misses your Top 100 doesn’t mean he sucks, but curious about your opinions of these authors’ works? Considering either American Psycho or Freedom for my next read.
Keith Law: Didn’t like Franzen’s The Corrections. Never read anything else by him, or anything at all by Ellis.

Deke: This spring, most of the projection systems had Nick Madrigal forecast for 7, 8, 9 homers. Seems obviously ridiculous to me. Is that just a product of those systems not really knowing how to forecast someone with Madrigal’s profile? He’s such an outlier to the modern ballplayer that the projection systems just have to throw their hands up?
Keith Law: They’re not my systems, so that might be a better question for one of their developers, but I would guess that you’re right, although we have seen fewer than 7 HR in full seasons from batters recently – Yolmer Sanchez hit 2 in 2019 while qualifying for the batting title. Nobody has hit fewer than 2 while qualifying since 2014, though.

Appa Yip Yip: Are you buying what Julian Merryweather is selling?
Keith Law: In one-inning bursts, sure. Picked up about a grade of FB moving to relief.

Andy: The AS game decision was MLB taking some heat off of players/managers of whether or not they would participate. It’s one of the first actual items I can think of Manfred doing to help his players be marketed ahead of the game of baseball.
Keith Law: Howard Bryant reported that corporate sponsors really pushed MLB to move the game. I agree that it did help the players out, but it sounds like money talked first.

Mac: Has Mayer overtaken Lawler as the top prep position player?
Keith Law: No.

Jack: Are the A’s really this bad?
Keith Law: No, but I don’t think they’re a 95-win team underperforming, either.

Adam: I second the Tabla recommendation, or Supra, their first restaurant. You haven’t lived until you’ve tried khachapuri (basically a giant boat filled with cheese and a whole egg). My question: how is DeGrom doing it??? First start against the Phillies, he was sitting 98-101 and hit 102. If that’s his velocity now, maybe the Mets will finally win when he starts occassionally.
Keith Law: I have had a peinirli, the Greek equivalent, and yes, it’s great. (Supposedly brought to Greece by emigrants from the Caucasus.) As for deGrom, I don’t really know the answer. He’s an outlier of the best possible kind.

Jason: Do you think Josh Lindblom can be of service in MLB? I believe you’ve said as a reliever. I hope the brewers keep him in the pen.
Keith Law: Yes, in relief.

Mike: Best breakfast place in az
Keith Law: 1. Hillside Spot. 2. Crepe Bar 3. Matt’s Big Breakfast.

Creedreader (TJ): Vlad jr. was touted as the first prospect with a consensus 80 hit tool. Is this true in your estimation? What does it mean that Wander Franco is the next prospect with an 80 hit tool? Has this happened before but wasn’t known because of the presence of the internet or are these two prospects truly remarkable in this respect? Has there ever been a prospect with an 80 hit tool that has underperformed or not been a major league regular? Really interested in your take on this and any other thoughts you have on a prospect being rated 80 on that particular tool which seems more qualitative and important than all the others
Keith Law: It was not true, IMO, and I think subsequent events have borne that out, although to be clear I still expect great things from his bat.

Frank: How does Henry Davis compare to other top of the draft catchers in recent years like Bart and Rutschman?
Keith Law: Better than Bart, below Rutschman.

Matt: I’ve noticed since being vaccinated, I tend to laugh (behind my mask) when I see people that refuse to wear one. Like, if you want to ignore science, fine. But sooner or later, you will get got. Am I a dick?
Keith Law: The problem is that those people ignoring science will get other people got. And then we all lose.

Santaspirt: I wonder if all the anti-DH people realize that the DH is optional. So even if it’s universal, teams don’t have to use one. I mean if it’s truly the better option for the game, I’m sure all their favorite teams will choose not to employ it.
Keith Law: Fair point. Watch how fast those 15 NL teams run towards the DH when they can.

ajd: One of the things I’ve struggled with recently while reading sportswriting is how many journalists seem to be carrying water for teams or MLB in general. I realize this isn’t anything new, but it’s depressing. How do you, as someone who is inside the game, handle this stuff? Laugh it off? Ignore this? Or is it just not a big deal?
Keith Law: When appropriate, I try to provide a contrary and I hope more objective viewpoint, with evidence.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. A reminder that The Inside Game is indeed now out in paperback, and you can buy it anywhere you like – Midtown Scholar has many signed copies available right now. Thank you all for reading, and, for those of you who’ve already bought the book, thank you as well.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ April 8, 2021
→ By keith

Never Rarely Sometimes Always.

Never Rarely Sometimes Always is such a small, wonderful film that might have found its audience had it had a normal theatrical run last year, but Focus purchased it out of Sundance and sent it to streaming after three days in theaters right at the start of the pandemic, so it seems to have escaped a lot of notice. It’s a gem of a movie that takes an unsparing look at abortion and just how difficult the United States makes it for women to exercise this most basic form of autonomy over their own bodies. (You can watch it on HBO Max or via HBO on amazon.)

Autumn (Sidney Flanigan) is a 17-year-old living in a rural town in northern Pennsylvania who suspects she might be pregnant, so she goes to a ‘pregnancy crisis center,’ one of those fake clinics where they try to prevent pregnant women from making rational choices, often by lying to them. Autumn decides she wants to get an abortion, so her cousin Skylar (Talia Ryder) steals some money from the grocery store where they work – for a truly creepy manager – and they hop a bus to New York City, where parental consent isn’t required as it is in the backwater where they live. Once they arrive, however, they realize that the procedure won’t be as quick or simple as they’d been led to believe, and they have to make some unpleasant choices to stay in the city and let Autumn get a proper abortion.

Never Rarely Sometimes Always does so much right with this story, but foremost among them is how granular it gets throughout the process. There’s an attention to detail here that puts you deeply into the story in a way that tries to express the difficulty, stress, and sheer exasperation that Autumn faces, even though she’s sure about her decision. The scenes at the pregnancy crisis center, or her intake interview at Planned Parenthood in New York, or as she and Skylar end up trying to pass the night at the Port Authority and riding the subways all give more time to the minutiae of the moment, passing in something more like real time, giving it a documentary/cinema verité feel.

There are also some small but clearly conscious choices on the part of director/screenwriter Eliza Hittman that drive home Autumn’s anguish and isolation. The intake interview – the best scene in the film, and the scene that gives the movie its title – has the camera focused exclusively on Autumn, even when the kind woman interviewing her is doing most of the talking. Autumn and Skylar are together for long periods where they don’t speak as the camera follows them around Manhattan, or just shows us the two of them trying to sleep in the station, emphasizing that Autumn can simultaneously be alone and with her cousin. If Hittman used any artificial lighting, it wasn’t evident; the whole film has a tinge of grey to it, and the indoor scenes all look like they’re lit solely by the cold fluorescent lights ubiquitous in offices and other public spaces. The script is clearly on the side of a woman’s right to choose, and expresses that view through an intensely realistic look at the process from positive test to the abortion itself, undermining any argument that this is something women do cavalierly while showing just how many obstacles our supposedly free country throws in their way.

Flanigan made their film debut in NRSA, and earned a slew of honors for their performance here, winning Best Actress from Boston and New York critics circles. The film depends so much on Flanigan that you can’t understate the importance of her work, which is superb – she’s entirely believable and disappears into this role, owning that scene in the PP intake interview that, for me, defined this film. It can’t work without a knockout performance, but they deliver one, and you can add Flanigan to the list of actresses who I think deserved an Oscar nomination over Andra Day (who did her best with a badly written role) this year. I’d also put this movie in my top ten for 2020 right now, with maybe a half-dozen possible contenders for that still on my to-watch list, including Minari, The Father, and First Cow. It’s great, and manages to educate without becoming didactic, while telling an important, compelling story.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2020 movies, highly recommended, movies, reproductive rights

→ April 7, 2021
→ By keith

The United States vs. Billie Holiday.

Many, many people told me The United States vs. Billie Holiday (streaming on Hulu) was bad, but my God did they undersell it. This movie sucks.

And it’s not that it sucks from the get-go; the first half-hour is actually okay, so you think, oh, this might be a serviceable music biopic about a really pivotal figure not just in music history, but in American civil rights history. The second half hour is worse, and you start to see the lack of focus in the script. By the last half hour, though, this thing is so far off the rails that you might start to question whether this was even a movie in the first place. It’s so bad that I can’t even really begin to argue Andra Day’s awards case, because she’s stuck in this very terrible, badly written, badly directed movie.

There’s a good story here, even if this movie doesn’t tell it. Billie Holiday was hounded by the federal government for nearly two decades because of “Strange Fruit,” one of her signature songs, a song written by Abel Meeropol about lynchings. Because she refused to stop singing it in live performances, they harassed her, cut off her license to perform in NYC cabarets (which I can’t believe was a real thing until 1967, and arrested her on drug charges. Holiday was an addict, and her celebrity also made her a useful target for post-Prohibition hardliners looking for other ways to regulate the behavior of Americans. Holiday’s life naturally offers the peaks and valleys you’d want in a Hollywood biography.

Instead, Pulitzer Prize-winning playwright Suzan Lori-Parks’ script for The United States vs. Billie Holiday adds one ridiculous fabrication after another, and suffers from ham-fisted directorial work from Lee Daniels (The Butler, Precious) that do Holiday and the viewers a series of injustices. Day is good, I think, and she certainly does an expert impression of Holiday’s speaking and singing voices. Trevante Rhodes (Moonlight) is in a similar boat, doing what I think is great work in a terrible role as Jimmy Fletcher, the real-life undercover agent who entraps Holiday in a drug sting, although in movie world they end up having an affair. He’s working for Harry Anslinger, who truly did hound Holiday to death; Anslinger is played here by Garrett Hedlund, and calling his performance “one-note” would imply one more note than it actually contains.

I can’t even express how much I loathed the last half of this movie, though. The lighting is weird the entire time, not in a way that evokes its era, but in a way that makes you want to adjust your television, or maybe go get a glaucoma test. Then Daniels decides to start shifting within scenes from full color to black and white and back again, adding nothing except confusion and delay. Holiday’s childhood trauma comes to Fletcher not from her telling him about it, or one of her confidants doing so, but because he shoots up with her retinue and then sees her memories during his high.

Day’s performance might be the film’s only redeeming quality, although this movie is way beyond redemption. The character is just so poorly written that it’s hard to say whether this is a great performance, or a game performance along with a great impersonation. Holiday gets off some great one-liners and a clever soliloquy or two, but there’s no depth to the character here, and especially no real exploration of just why she continued singing “Strange Fruit” even though doing so jeopardized her career and her liberty. There’s a completely made-up scene where she and Fletcher just happen upon the aftermath of a lynching, but it’s so late in the movie that it can’t explain anything, and its inclusion here is so inept that it seemed like it might have been intended as a dream sequence or memory – except that Fletcher wouldn’t be in a memory like that, so, no, this is supposed to be real.

Nobody saw The Nest, but I would have given Carrie Coon a nomination over Day, and if the Academy was going to nominate an actress from a bad movie, they could just as easily have gone with Sophia Loren for The Life Ahead (more of a mediocre, sentimental movie than an outright mess). I just can’t get over what a crime it was to take an American musical icon who took a principled stand on race and turn her into a two-dimensional figure at the heart of a disjointed, overdirected film like this one.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2020 best actress nominees, 2020 movies, disappointments, movies

→ April 6, 2021
→ By keith

DC & Maryland eats, 2021 edition.

I made a trip! To see baseball! Two trips, in fact, but only one involved a hotel stay, as I went down to the University of Maryland and stayed rather than boomeranging back and forth to Delaware (it’s a short drive but often a miserable one). For the first time in over a year, I have some restaurants to report on, in DC and the Maryland suburbs.

Mandalay is a local legend, a Burmese restaurant in Silver Spring. I don’t think I’d ever had Burmese food prior to this, so I have nothing to which I can compare this meal, but it was both spectacular and a truly new experience. We ordered four dishes: the eggplant fritters, the green tea leaf salad, nanjee thoke, and shrimp with sour mustard. Nanjee thoke is a noodle dish with curried chicken strips, onion, and cabbage, tossed with Burmese dressing, a mixture of peanuts, sesame seeds, horse gram bean powder, and fish sauce; the latter two ingredients are fermented, and both high in glutamates, the source of umami flavors. Sour mustard is also a fermented dish, a Burmese analogue to kimchi or sauerkraut, made from mustard greens and fermented with ginger and a salt brine. Those two dishes were like nothing I’d ever eaten. Both start out with a funky front note of something fermented, something slightly off, but then the umami comes out, along with sweet/spicy flavors in the noodles and tangy flavors in the shrimp (with a lot of onions that give a hint of sweetness), so that when you finish a bite, you can’t wait to have the next one. The fritters were custardy inside, and came with a very potent sour and spicy dipping sauce that paired well with the fried eggplant but also came in handy for the salad, which was woefully underdressed, with neither enough salt nor enough acidity. The next time I get mustard greens from our CSA, I’m going to try to replicate the sour mustard pickle, though.

Call Your Mother is a mini-chain of “Jew-ish delis” that make some incredible bagel sandwiches, which start with some damn fine bagels. I got the Sun City, an everything bagel with eggs, bacon, and spicy honey. That last element could easily have overwhelmed the sandwich, but there was just enough to give the sandwich a little kick and to give the bacon that sweetness you might get from “accidentally” letting it sit in the maple syrup that slid off your pancakes. My wife got the Gleneagle, a za’atar bagel (already interesting) with candied smoked salmon cream cheese (even more interesting) and cucumbers. They use coffee from Lost Socks Roasters, located just over the line in DC’s Takoma Park neighborhood. It is a Jacob Wohl-certified Hipster Coffee Shop™ and it’s also excellent – if I’d thought of it, I would have grabbed a bag of beans – but I had their espresso at their shop and a drip coffee of a custom blend they make for Call Your Mother.

Franklins Brewery is a restaurant, a brewery, and one of the coolest general stores you will ever find – the food is fine, the beer is good, but go for the store, which has all manner of eclectic, weird, and interesting knickknacks and gifts (as well as various craft beers). They make a solid crab cake, and the pork in their Cuban sandwich is tangy and smoky, but if you’re eating here, try the beer; I enjoyed the Rubber Chicken Red, an American Amber with very little hoppiness, but would also recommend the Highland Hugh (a Strong Scotch) and the HVL (a Honey Blonde, maybe a bit sweet for fans of IPAs or other hoppy beers). The store even has a small but well-curated selection board game collection, including several Ticket to Ride and Catan titles and a nice selection of the single-play Exit games. The outdoor seating area was a plus – I’m not vaccinated at all, so I’m still not eating inside any restaurants – and I imagine it’ll be packed the moment the weather warms up.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: bagels, breakfast, burmese cuisine, coffee, maryland, washington

→ April 1, 2021
→ By keith

Klawchat 4/1/21.

My predictions for 2021 are now up for for The Athletic subscribers.

My second book, The Inside Game, comes out in paperback on April 6th. Next Wednesday, April 7th, I’ll be appearing in a live, virtual event with fellow author Will Leitch through Harrisburg’s Midtown Scholar bookstore. Your ticket purchase also gets you a personalized, signed copy of my book.

Keith Law: It hits like a hammer when I’m that to someone else. Klawchat.

HomerSomethingSomething: Just finished The Inside Game – great work! Jarren Duran looks like he’s made serious strides at the plate since 2019 but his routes and reads have been awful this Spring. Do you think he can stick in CF or does he end up a corner guy?
Keith Law: I do believe in the swing changes, but wouldn’t judge any fielder too much based on spring training. He’s certainly athletic and fast enough to handle CF. (I haven’t seen any of his fielding misadventures, though.)

Andy: What are the odds Bo Naylor stays at C for the Indians as he moves up the minor league ladder?
Keith Law: At this point, probably around even money, with a better chance that they move him to get his bat in the lineup more than that they move him for defensive reasons.

Todd Boss: Carter Kieboom question; he just had a very public 2021 Spring Training audition failure. He’s only 23 … but something feels like he’s at a serious cross roads in his career right now. Does he need a change of scenery?
Keith Law: He might. Maybe just going to AAA and playing 2b exclusively would help? That said, I was always kind of the low man on his bat. I didn’t see this potential 60 hit tool, not in his bat speed and not in his overall approach.

Andy: If Chris Rodriguez can stay healthy does he have the stuff to be a legit #2 SP down the road?
Keith Law: Yes, but he’s never stayed healthy, and they took my 1000-to-1 bet from a few weeks ago against him appearing in the majors … which I said would be a stupid move at the time. I stand by that: He’s thrown 9 innings in 3 years, nothing above A-ball. How do you manage his workload this year, on a club that wants to contend, while also setting him up to return to starting in 2022? Have they closed the door on him as a starter in the long term?

Will: Keith, what are your expectations for Pache this year? Is a 250/320/400 slash line crazy?
Keith Law: I’d expect more like a .250/.290/.440 kind of line, with a lot of HR but that low OBP.

G: I know you had Ke’Bryan Hayes as the most deserving player for ROY last year, and he’s still eligible this year as he hasn’t yet hit his Rookie eligibility requirement. So my question is: Is it possible for a player to win ROY twice?
Keith Law: It is not. Last year’s winners are ineligible this year by rule. I remain a huge Hayes fan but his lack of any voter support last year has further convinced me that there are enough voters who just don’t take voting seriously, and that someone like Hayes, who is one of the best defensive 3b in baseball right now, is at a disadvantage in awards voting because he’ll produce value in ways lazy voters just don’t recognize.

Todd Boss: Props to CWS for not playing service time games with Vaughn and naming him to opening day. What are his chances of holding his own given limited minor league ABs?
Keith Law: I wonder if he’ll end up a high BB high K guy right now, because he was always dancing on the edge of being passive. That could be a reaction if he’s overmatched by big league pitching. I hope that’s wrong.

Andy: Could Lacy open in the Royals rotation in 2022 or is that too optimistic a timeline given the lost development time last year?
Keith Law: Very reasonable.

Josh: Is there anything in Vaughn’s athletic makeup that suggests he can play LF every day at an acceptable level?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I wouldn’t rule it out.

Andy: Does Tanajh Thomas have a future as a starter or does he profile more as a power RP?
Keith Law: Reliever.

Will: Keith, thoughts on Sean Newcomb in the bullpen? At 26, is he done as a starter?
Keith Law: Yes. Can’t see how he can improve his delivery to throw more strikes.

Eric: Overall thoughts on the Lindor extension? I think fair for both sides.
Keith Law: He would have gotten more on the open market, I think, but I can’t criticize him for taking this deal. Of the four SS headed for free agency this winter (including him), I think he might have been the best bet for a long-term deal. Better SS now than Correa or Seager, more likely to stay there, and better hitter than Story.

Andy: Manoah really opened some eyes this spring. Is it feasible to project a late call up this year if things go well in the minors or is that too aggressive given his lack of minor league IP?
Keith Law: Reasonable, if they manage his innings to leave something in the tank for August/September.

Champdo: How good do you think Willi Castro could be at his peak?
Keith Law: Everyday player.

Andy: Why do you hate my team? Every national expert must pick my team to be the class of the league. Every player is in the best shape of their life. Every prospect is the next big thing. Clearly, you are the issue for not seeing this.
Keith Law: What never fails to surprise me is how none of the people whining about purported “bias” against their favorite teams realize that fans of every team say the same thing.

Ted: Hi Keith – providing that he stays healthy, can AJ Puk become a GUY with less velocity (93-94), but with better command? The reports from spring suggest that his velocity has gone down a bit, while he’s working on his command. Thanks.
Keith Law: I heard that directly from a scout – Alex Coffey had a great article where she used that quote from me – and I think he can still be a GUY, but he has to show he can stay healthy, which he also has not done.

Todd Boss: Seth Romero, your favorite Nats malcontent 1st round draftee, is on 40-man and did not log a single pitch in spring training despite no injury report. What can we glean from this information as Nats fans?
Keith Law: “Undisclosed injury.” Uh-huh. Color me shocked.

Jason: Why is Andrew Cuomo still Governor of NY?
Keith Law: I’m really not sure. He should have been gone weeks ago.
Keith Law: I also don’t know if there’s a legal route to removing him right now, though.

Khalid: Is Tyler Soderstrom’s bat good enough that he can retain his value as a prospect even if he was moved off C to either 3B or LF?
Keith Law: Yes. I wrote about that in the offseason – he’s not a C, he is a prospect.

Kevin: Your thoughts on Luis Garcia. I thought I remembered that you like him.
Keith Law: The Astros’ starter, yes.

Kyle: Do you have insight on how beneficial it is to the bookstore to buy a popular book from a wealthy author? For example, Obama’s new memoir is $45 at my local store, $24 at Amazon. I like to support the local store but that’s a big difference for an already wealthy author.
Keith Law: I believe the bulk of that difference goes to the store, although I also believe that amazon buys their books from publishers at a lower rate than local stores do.

Anthony: I’m always blocked out of Meadowparty on mobile (sending this question from my laptop). Do you know if there’s any way around this so I can access your chats/movie reviews from my phone?
Keith Law: That issue should be resolved – might need to clear your cache – but it will work on Wifi. The issue was related to some site security software Hostgator told me I needed, but it turned out I didn’t need it and it caused problems with users on some mobile networks.

Jason: are you high on Garrett Mitchell?
Keith Law: He was on my top 100. I don’t know if that makes me high on him or not, but I ranked him higher than his draft position last year.

Michael: Tyler O’Neill reportedly worked on and had a great spring as far as a significantly better approach at the plate. If he can really translate that to regular season what kind of player do you think he could be?
Keith Law: I won’t buy that at all until I see it. His whole swing and approach were geared to pull the ball. That’s no small fix.

Jib: Justin Williams starting in RF for the Cardinals today. How do you like his chances to keep that spot?
Keith Law: I really hope he gets an extended shot. He can do enough of everything to be a soft regular in a corner, maybe not right now, but in time.

Hank: I noticed you tweeted that the baseball fan in you was happy that Kirk made the Jays. What players are your favourites purely as a fan, regardless of how good they might be?
Keith Law: Stroman. Roman Quinn. Dom Smith. Lindor. Javy Baez. Tatis Jr., of course. Quite a few, really – I just don’t go overboard in talking about them because I don’t want people to find bias where none exists.

Max: Keith, sell me on Drew Waters as a future star in CF?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s even a regular.

Guest: Thanks for doing these chats, sir. The indie (sic) league team I follow just signed Anfernee Grier, a former #1 pick by Arizona. His career has been a tire fire–was he seen at the time as a bad pick?
Keith Law: Yes, or at least as high-risk medium-reward. Hit well his junior spring until conference play started, and then he cratered. Never did learn to pick up breaking stuff.
Keith Law: I took too long to mute the announcers. Must still be spring training for me too.

Jason: So do the Mariners keep Kelenic down a few extra days or weeks past the service time marker to create a plausible defense to the claim he’ll make? Players never win those arguments, but there usually isn’t an exec on tape admitting to the plan.
Keith Law: Maybe? I have a feeling we’ll see him sooner because they’re aware the league, his agent, and even their fans are watching.

wrburgess: Does Justus Sheffield show enough improvement this season to meet the potential you saw previously?
Keith Law: Not sure he’s ever going to be hitting 97 with a plus slider like I saw from him in the AFL, but I think he’ll be league-average this year.

Chris: Kinda feel like the Mets should’ve traded Dom Smith for some pitching? With no DH this year he’s gonna struggle to see the field (he’s unplayable in LF IMO)
Keith Law: I have thought that for a while, but I also think they were betting on a DH this year, and they don’t want to deal a guy who has turned out to be one of the most popular players on the team. I can’t completely fault them for either.

Your fellow citizens: What are your thoughts on folks thinking Covid is almost over? Sad to see so many selfish people ruining what could be a strong recovery and good health for everyone! Everyone, please still wear your damn mask!
Keith Law: It was inevitable. States opening back up too quickly has led to complacency, and that’s leading to new waves of cases. Good job, everyone.

Dave: Hi Klaw. Thanks for the chats. Enjoyed the Inside Game. Are you planning a third book? Between Casas, Downs, Duran and Jimenez who has the highest ceiling and who in your opinion is the most likely to reach their ceiling?
Keith Law: Kicking around an idea for a non-baseball non-fiction book. Jimenez has the highest ceiling, but he’s not ranked first in their system, because I don’t think he has the probability of the other guys.

Appa Yip Yip: Did you see anything different on what Manoah was doing this spring compared to when last you saw him?
Keith Law: No but the TV angle doesn’t show me everything and if he’s changed something minor I might have missed it.

JJ: If Bobby Dalbec plays 140+ games this year, can he surpass Mark Reynolds’ single season record of 223 strikeouts for the season? I get that I’m not supposed to care about contact any more, but it’s getting ridiculous. Boring, and ridiculous.
Keith Law: Yes, he could.

Josh: Will the owners feel even a hint of shame when they cry austerity & lock out players after a season where two shortstops were guaranteed 681 million dollars?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. They have no shame.

Kevin: Any college coaches thank you for pointing out how to get Jud Fabian out?
Keith Law: 50% strikeout rate in SEC play. His defenders on Twitter have gotten awfully quiet.

section 34: Keith, isn’t “service time manipulation” really just good business practice?
Keith Law: Yes, if your entire goal is profit maximization.

mike t: Is it possible for pitchers with relatively straight fastballs to add movement? I’m thinking about Mitch Keller in particular
Keith Law: I know teams that believe this is possible through pitch design, altering grips and seam placement. I think we’re still seeing the results of these experiments, and whether pitchers can do that without losing too much command. (I think some will. It’s good progress.)

Adam: Considering the layoff between actual games, should we be really excited by how *good* certain prospects like Bobby Witt and CJ Abrams have looked so far this Spring?
Keith Law: No. I mean, you can be excited, but don’t let it change your rational opinions of those players.

Adam: Considering the late bloom of his career, how dominant does Jacob DeGrom need to be for how long to make a serious Hall of Fame case for himself? Does one more Cy Young award get him there?
Keith Law: I think it’s going to be really hard for him. He’ll have to stay healthy well into his 30s and keep working as a starter, or his bulk numbers are going to pale next to other starters in the Hall (where the standards for SP haven’t changed enough to reflect changing usage patterns).

TomBruno23: Reminder of the time Gregg Jefferies received ROY votes in 1988 and 1989.
Keith Law: Can’t miss!

Dr. Bob: I’m not a big pomp and circumstance guy in any situation, but I make two exceptions: Opening Day and Game 1 of the World Series. Give me all the hoopla along with the game. Baseball is back, baby.
Keith Law: My excitement is a little tempered by the state of the world, but yes, it is very, very good to have baseball back.

Ben (MN): My opening day meal tradition is Kramarczuk’s Brats (sold at Target Field) with onions and saurkraut. It just makes me feel like baseball is finally here. What’s your favorite stadium/baseball meal?
Keith Law: I almost never eat at ballparks, sorry.

Jose: Your thought on Nats prospects Israel Pineda. Thanks.
Keith Law: He’s #14 on my Nationals prospect rankings.

Coach: Do you think Hoerner is going to hit?
Keith Law: I do, enough for him to be an everyday guy, but not enough to be a star.

Nick: I think you’ve read most of David Mitchell at this point. What was your favorite? I think mine is still Cloud Atlas.
Keith Law: I’ve read 5/8 and would agree, but I know people who love Black Swan Green.

Mac: Who do you think will be the third college pitcher off the board?
Keith Law: Gunnar Hoglund.

Chris: Gleyber let a reachable one get by him, time for the “he cant play short!” rants to begin. Joking aside, what will they do with DJ signed for 6 yrs and Gio ensconsed at 3B if Glevber cant, in fact, play short, esp with the big group coming up as FA?
Keith Law: They’ll sign one of those FA and trade Gleyber, or move him to third and trade Gio. I can’t see them letting either of those guys stop them from signing a premium free agent.

TomBruno23: Watched Christian Little at all? I know Vandy has some other big names on the staff, but wondering your thoughts on a kid who in a normal world would be a senior at CBC High School in St. Louis instead of pitching mid-week for the #1 team in the country.
Keith Law: I have not, but I can’t emphasize enough what an incredibly bad idea it is for high school players to matriculate early in college and skip the draft entirely. This is coaches trying to make an end run around MLB teams, and the big losers are the players, who miss out on an opportunity for MLB teams to offer them a lot of money that they can still, if they choose, decline to accept.

Ben: New to your chats, thank you. Why do virtually all prospects with 70-80 power have a propensity to strike out so often?
Keith Law: When you swing that hard, you’re going to miss a lot.

Joe: When will the Blue Jays realize Danny Jansen isn’t that good and unleash Alejandro Kirk to his full potential?
Keith Law: Give them time. I’m sure they’re still wondering how much to buy Kirk’s bat since he had no time above A-ball before last fall.

elGuapo: What would you do with Aquino now that he’s out of options? Can he be a regular (.800+ OPS in ML and AAA)? Or is he just a high K guy the Reds seem to hate for good reason.
Keith Law: I’d waive him. He’s not an .800 OPS guy (or a 100 wRC+ guy) going forward.

Kevin: Given the short shelf life that catchers have, if you were Baltimore would you even have Adley catch another inning in the minors considering his D is already major league good?
Keith Law: They’re going to be so bad this year that I’m not sure there’s a real benefit to rushing him now. Maybe midyear? He’d be two years past his draft day anyway.

Grover: Have you given up on Willie Calhoun?
Keith Law: I was never a huge believer. He has no position and I don’t think the bat plays at DH.

Chris: It took til the 2nd batter of the season for the announcers to mention Cole’s salary. Funny how they never mention an owner’s net worth.
Keith Law: They know who pays their salaries.

Mike: Ignoring the lost income angle, it is bad developmentally for position players to choose college over starting a professional career?
Keith Law: That will depend on the player. Some guys really do need college, or will make more money after playing at a good D1 program. Anthony Rendon wasn’t a top ten kind of player out of high school, but he might have gone 1-1 if he hadn’t hurt his shoulder his junior year at Rice.
Keith Law: Some is development, some is just seeing a guy regularly against better competition.

Kevin: Gore seems to still be having some command trouble. Any concern?
Keith Law: It was 11 innings. No.

Todd Boss: Speaking of kids who graduated early to run off to college: Nate Savino and UVA. He was 1st round talent projected as a rising HS senior … now he’s UVA’s mid-week starter? If he was that good … how is he unable to beat out middling upperclassmen starters who are currently leading UVA to a losing record? Was he over-rated coming out of HS? Has he regressed?
Keith Law: I didn’t see him on Saturday, but I don’t think he’s regressed as badly as Mike Vasil, who might have lost $2 million by telling teams not to draft him.

section 34: Keith, on “service time manipulation” — it seems to me that smart teams would do it not just to maximize profits (though that’s also a benefit), but to keep players for an extra full season. Not every team is the Dodgers or Mets and can afford to pay the market-rate salary of a superstar player. Do you disagree?
Keith Law: Yes, I do. Sending guys to the minors who don’t need to go there stops their development. It might cost you a win or more in the majors that year. And it’s always based on the assumption that you know what a player will be worth six or seven years into the future. Any such projections should have enormous error bars around them, at the least.

Nitelight62: I think a 14 year Major League career qualifies as not missing…..
Keith Law: Jefferies was supposed to be the best prospect in baseball, or close to it, and he was done as a regular at age 27, with 19 career WAR.

danaez: You seem to balance a wide variety of interests in addition to your family and professional lives. Are you just naturally good at compartmentalizing? I struggle with it and too often end up not getting much done because I’m overwhelmed/distracted.
Keith Law: I do compartmentalize, but I’m also fortunate in that I can integrate family and some of those interests – my wife is just as avid a movie fan (and Oscar completist) as I am. She and my daughter both enjoy board games and I think my stepdaughters are headed that way (I concede some possible influence in that department). My wife has also encourage to try or re-try activities I didn’t think I’d enjoy, like skiing or running. So a lot of those outside interests become family activities too.

Merrick: Hi Keith! Was fun seeing Andre Jackson and Michael Grove throw back-to-back innings recently after learning about them from your Dodgers list. Both appear to have exciting stuff. Do you think either might be a bullpen candidate in October?
Keith Law: Grove more likely. Jackson I think is further away from MLB-ready.

Michael: Cardinals are batting Goldschmidt 2nd, Arenado 3rd, Dejong 4th and Carlson 7th today. Maybe I’m wrong but the line up seems a lot better moving Carlson into the 2nd spot to give a guy who looks like he will get on base a good amount and hit with some power in front of Goldschmidt and Arenado. What do you think?
Keith Law: Probably Shildt being conservative with Carlson, who was way better in September in a very small sample. If Carlson is a good OBP guy this year, why not lead him off?

Mike: Hasnt Vasil been pretty good for UVA? What happened to him to kill his draft stock?
Keith Law: Results are fine, stuff has not been what it was in HS.

HashtagSSS: Find any good coffee places in Charlottesville last weekend?
Keith Law: I drove down and back in one day. Moe’s BBQ has amazing collard greens, though.

Jeff: Thanks for the chats Keith. Any thoughts on moving the pitchers mound back to help the hitters a bit?
Keith Law: I don’t like the idea of changing field dimensions unless they’ve already tried changing more mutable things like the strike zone.

Andy 2: How much are the Cubs going to enjoy the last season of Kris Bryant? 6 years ago this wasn’t the plan for what they would be with his extra season.
Keith Law: Right, but they manipulated his service time as if they were sure they’d be contenders in 2021 and he’d still be a star.

Allen: Thoughts on Sonny Gray’s next few years? Can he be a #2 starter for a while? Better?
Keith Law: I’ll go with above-average starter but not an ace (top 20 or so in baseball).

devilinlaw: Who’s excited to watch the pitcher bat again in the NL?
Keith Law: Nobody!

Jay: How will the Pirates screw up the 1st pick? Take Del Castillo because he’d likely take less and they need MiLB C depth?
Keith Law: I think Leiter’s the most likely guy right now, but if they went college bat, I feel like Davis would be more likely. Taking the next-best guy can be a viable strategy if you get the right overpays later.

Jay: @devilinlaw Who’s excited to see Catchers hit? Nobody
Keith Law: In 2019, catchers hit .238/.309/.408, and pitchers hit .128/.159/.163. This is a stupid “point” and people need to stop making it, because it is stupid and annoying and wastes everyone’s time.
Keith Law: If pitchers hit like catchers, there would be no calls for DHs, and pitchers would win MVP awards all the time.

Trevor: Looked like Miami (OH)’s Bachman missed a few weeks, not sure if it was injury related or not, but then came back two starts later and struck out all 9 batters he faced. Looking forward to your draft prospect list update
Keith Law: Injury, yes, supposedly has come back fine. Top half of the first round stuff.

Guest: What are you thoughts on Amed Rosario playing CF in Cleveland and will they be able to get more production out of his tools than the Mets?
Keith Law: I’d really like to see him get a long trial there in the minors first. Don’t move a SS to CF in the majors and expect him to take to it immediately.

Jesus: Dom Smith huge year ?
Keith Law: I’ve been a believer since he was drafted. He can hit, and he has real power.

Pete: I’m excited about Alejandro Kirk. Who’s bat would you rather have for the next 5-10 years, his or Will Smith’s?
Keith Law: I would gladly take either. I feel better about a 10-year projection for Smith than for Kirk, though.

mike t: Regarding Pirates, wasn’t the problem with the previous regime more that they underdeveloped the talent they had, rather than drafting lesser players i order to sign them for less? Either way,, the jury is still out on Cherington
Keith Law: Yes, I agree with that. They had some head-scratchers in the draft (Will Craig?), but also had some really good picks that didn’t work out as expected or are still TBD.

JR: Getting my vaccine next week. Excited to see games in person this year. #fyeahbaseball
Keith Law: I’m eligible to sign up on Tuesday, so I’m hoping that means I’ll be able to get on a plane before the end of the month. Everyone who can get vaccinated should get vaccinated, not just for yourself, but for your community.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for all of your questions. The Inside Game is out in paperback on Tuesday. Here’s hoping I can sign your copies some time this year!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ April 1, 2021
→ By keith

Music update, March 2021.

What a loaded month for new tracks; maybe the possibility of tours later this year has encouraged artists to put out more new music, or maybe it’s a backlog of songs recorded during the long winter, but either way, this is one of my longest new music playlists ever, with 25 songs and over 100 minutes of music even after I made some cuts. You can access the Spotify playlist here if you can’t see the widget below.

The Lottery Winners featuring the Wonderstuff – Bang. The Wonderstuff’s “Circlesquare” is one of those songs I forget from time to time, only to have something bring it back the front of my memories and remind me of how much I like it. I wasn’t aware they were still active as a group, but they toured with then-rookies The Lottery Winners in 2016, which I assume led to this joint effort that I think is my favorite LW track so far. It’s indie-pop with a rough undertone in the lyrics, just like “Circlesquare.”

YONAKA – Ordinary. The Brighton quartet’s second new single of the year, “Ordinary” might be their best song so far, and I assume this self-produced track heralds a sophomore album at some point this year.

FKA twigs feat. Headie One – Don’t Judge Me. Headie One’s 2020 mixtape GANG had a two-minute song called “Judge Me (Interlude)” that featured FKA twigs on vocals, but it was truly an interlude, hardly a finished product. This, however, is a real song, with twigs elevated to lead status, or at least co-lead with Headie One, and how could you avoid interpreting the lyrics in an entirely new light after what she has gone through in the last six months? Her last album, MAGDALENE, was outstanding, one of my favorites of 2019, and I get the sense whatever she does next is going to top that.

Jungle – Keep Moving. Jungle put two songs on my ranking of the top 100 tracks of the 2010s, “Busy Earnin” (#64) and “Happy Man” (#11), one from each of their first two albums, both heavily influenced by 1970s soul, R&B, and funk. This lead single from their third album Loving in Stereo, due out August 13^th, moves forward a few years in the past to the early years of disco, with a great hook but perhaps not the high ceiling of their best songs to date because it’s lost some of the harder edges.

Ghost of Vroom – I Hear the Axe Swinging. I was hopeful that Mike Doughty’s new project would bring back some of that long-lost Soul Coughing vibe after a promising EP last summer, and I think this new single, from the group’s full-length album Ghost of Vroom 1, delivers on that promise, from Doughty’s half-sung, half-spoken word vocals to a drum-and-bass backdrop. The whole album is made of the same stuff, although I think Doughty is more front-and-center than he was on Soul Coughing’s first two albums.

The Horrors – Lout. The Horrors came on the scene in 2006 with the arty, dissonant single “Sheena is a Parasite,” went more mainstream with their stellar album Skying in 2011, and continued evolving in an even tamer direction after that, so their new three-song EP, also called Lout, is a surprise and a callback to their mid-aughts sound, with this title track the most accessible on the record.

NewDad – Slowly. This new Irish quartet is the latest in a sudden surge of shoegaze bands from that country, a quarter-century after the original shoegaze movement peaked in England, although this new wave is often more pop-accessible, as on NewDad’s sixth single, off their new EP Waves.

Japanese Breakfast – Be Sweet. “Be Sweet” is one of the most-lauded tracks of the month as far as I can see, thanks to a big hook in the chorus and a sunny, poppy sounds that should really cross over to mainstream pop radio.

BLOXX – Everything I’ve Ever Learned. I enjoyed this West London group’s debut album Lie Out Loud, including the title track and “Coming Up Short,” comparing it to California indie pop, and that’s still here on this new single, which is a little more mature and layered without losing any of their knack for a strong melody.

Sprints – Ashley. Sprints, like BLOXX, appeared on my top 100 songs of 2021, and they’re back now with another punk-influenced banger, although here the Irish quartet bring more rock/pop elements to their formula for a song that’s less indignant but still rocks, building to a powerful chorus, with lyrics that might take a little from “Every Breath You Take.”

Everything Everything – SUPERNORMAL. These art-rockers released this leftover track from their RE-ANIMATOR recording sessions, and I kind of wish it had made the record – this is the kind of frenetic music at which they excel, and which first drew my attention nearly a decade ago with songs like “Cough Cough” and “Kemosabe.”

Jorja Smith – Addicted. Still waiting for word on a second album from Smith, who has still been busy, including this stunning single and, as I recently learned, a contribution to the soundtrack of Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon.

Sons of Kemet feat. Kojey Radical & Lianne La Havas – Hustle. This British jazz ensemble brings in elements of Afrobeat, Caribbean music, classical, and here rap courtesy of Kojey Radical. Sons of Kemet were shortlisted for the 2018 Mercury Prize for their last album, Your Queen is a Reptile, and their follow-up, Black to the Future, will be out on May 14^th.

Daniel Casimir, Moses Boyd, et al – Safe (Part One). Because I’ve listened so much to Dark Matter, the 2020 debut album from jazz drummer Moses Boyd, I’ve discovered numerous other tracks on which he’s played, songs I would never have found otherwise because I don’t really know jazz well at all. Casimir is the lead artist here, a bassist and bandleader who put out his first full-length album (with Tess Hirst) in 2019 and has returned here with his longest song yet, this seven-minute opus that my limited jazz knowledge tells me bears a strong influence from John Coltrane.

DREAMERS, Big Boi, UPSAHL – Palm Reader. You might remember DREAMERS’ 2014 alternative radio hit “Wolves” or 2016’s “Sweet Disaster,” both perfectly cromulent songs, but this track expands their sound and is far more memorable for the contributions of Big Boi and the young singer UPSAHL. Just a reminder that palm reading is not a thing.

James – All the Colours of You. James’ peak output from 1989-1999, from “Sit Down” to Millionaires, should be up there in the pantheon of music in that era alongside the Oasises and the Blurs and other purveyors of smart rock/pop, but for whatever reason they’re just not remembered that way, and their music since the turn of the century has usually left me disappointed. This isn’t the next “I Know What I’m Here For,” but it’s good to hear James turn the tempo back up and bang the drums again.

TEKE::TEKE – Meikyu. Named for a Japanese urban legend about a vengeful spirit, this seven-piece, Montréal-based, Japanese band, incorporates traditional instruments into 1960s rock that sounds like the score to an early spy movie or a James Bond thriller. Their new EP Yoru Ni features two standout songs, this one and the title track.

Black Honey – Back of the Bar. This Brighton indie-pop band just released their second album, Written & Directed, which runs a scant 30 minutes but includes a bunch of catchy pop tracks, including this one, “Believer,” “Run for Cover,” and “Beaches.”

beabadoobee – Last Day on Earth. I do appreciate beabadoobee’s ’90s alternative radio sounds, but when she says “I’ve got something to say,” it just reminds me that she doesn’t seem to have anything to say. Her music isn’t catchy or compelling enough for me to overlook the lyrics yet, but she is a talented guitarist and songwriter, so she’s still a prospect with some upside.

Inhaler – Cheer Up Baby. Poor Elijah Hewson. The lead singer of Inhaler is never going to get away from comparisons to his father, Bono, because he sounds just like him whenever he extends his voice, as he does on the chorus here – but it’s a good song in its own right, and Inhaler doesn’t really sound like U2.

Royal Blood – Limbo. I’m not sure how I feel about this new single from Royal Blood, whose first single “Out of the Black” was my #1 song of 2014 and #13 of the decade, which is catchy and has that heavy bottom all their songs do (because Mike Kerr is playing a bass guitar with an octaver pedal, not a six-string), but it’s … dancy? Am I just thrown because this is a good song that is not what I think of a Royal Blood song? That bass riff at the end is pretty killer, though.

Death from Above 1979 – Modern Guy. “One + One” was the lead single from their new album, Is 4 Lovers, and I think my preferred single of these two, but I haven’t had a chance to dive into this album yet.

Wheel – Ascend. This Finnish prog-metal band has fast become one of my favorite artists in that niche, and their second album, Resident Human, has two standout shorter singles in this and “Fugue,” along with three songs that clock in beyond ten minutes, which I understand isn’t everyone’s taste.

Gojira – Amazonia. Is Gojira the best metal band in the world today? I’m inclined to say yes, especially since this is the third straight single they’ve released (“Born for One Thing” and “Another World”) that retains their trademark heaviness but strike a better balance between the not-quite-growled vocals and the showstopping music behind it.

Moonspell – The Hermit Saints. More gothic metal from these Portuguese stalwarts who seem like a throwback to heavy metal in the pre-death (pre-Death?) days.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2021 in music, alternative, experimental music, indie, jazz, progressive metal

→ March 30, 2021
→ By keith

Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon.

I wouldn’t normally write up a movie like Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon, now on Netflix, one of the nominees for this year’s Academy Award for Best Animated Feature, because it’s ostensibly a kids’ movie – and I say that as someone who has long loved Shaun the Sheep and Aardman stuff in general. The first StS season came out when my daughter was maybe 3 or 4, and she and I would watch them together and laugh, and her giggle would just make me laugh some more. The episode in season 1 where the sheep are visited by a couple of mischievous aliens helped my daughter come to the conclusion that “aliens have one eye, monsters have two eyes.” (It’s still one of my favorites.)

The first Shaun the Sheep movie was also nominated for an Oscar, and it was funny, but frivolous. That was a great movie for kids, one that you could enjoy as an adult, but not something that had a second layer for the older parts of the audience like most Pixar movies do. Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon, a stand-alone sequel, goes way beyond the first movie, though. It is absolutely packed with references and callbacks to classic science fiction, from H.G. Wells to Doctor Who to 2001 to The X-Files to E.T., over 50 Easter eggs that I saw myself (I watched it twice to try to spot more) and that I read about online after watching. And it’s still really funny, with great sight gags (there is no dialogue in any Shaun the Sheep films or episodes … they are sheep, after all) and a plot that winks at conventions of sci-fi in general and the hoary alien-visitation gag in particular.

Shaun is the ringleader of the sheep at Mossy Bottom Farm where, as with the titular animals in Chicken Run, the sheep are organized, and often try to outwit The Farmer (not that hard) and his dog/foreman Bitzer (a bit harder) to try to get more food, have more fun, or annoy the asshole pigs who live next door. (The pigs are, sadly, not in Farmageddon enough.) This time around, though, they have a visitor – an alien child named Lu-La who crashes their spaceship nearby and ends up in the Farmer’s barn, unbeknownst to the Farmer, who sees a news report about the old man who said he saw the spaceship and decides to capitalize by building a ramshackle attraction he calls Farmageddon. What that really means, of course, is that he makes Bitzer and the sheep build it, while Shaun and Lu-La try to hide from everyone around – including the very Scully-like Agent who is determined to find the spaceship and capture Lu-La.

Hijinks ensue, as they always do when Shaun is involved, but the great surprise of this movie is that it is absolutely packed with allusions, references, callbacks, in-jokes, and more. One Doctor Who bit my daughter and I caught just slayed us, and apparently there’s another one we missed around the Fourth Doctor that was somewhere in the background. There’s a symbol in a pizza box right when Shaun and Lu-La first meet that I didn’t catch the first time around, but it was one of at least two references to that particular movie – and I got the second one. There’s a mechanic’s shop called H.G. Wheels. The Agent’s code to access a locked room is a reference. There are just so many things to catch in this movie that there are still more I haven’t, and I don’t even think the few lists I’ve seen of Easter eggs and trivia are close to complete.

I recognize that in-jokes and allusions don’t make a movie great, but everything Shaun the Sheep is at least good enough, and this sequel has a more entertaining plot than the original. I know Soul is the favorite for the Oscar, but, man, I’d watch this for a third or fourth time before I watched that a second time.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2020 best animated feature nominees, 2020 movies, animation, highly recommended

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