You can see my writeup of four trades from earlier this week that came right before the 40-man deadline if you’re a subscriber to the Athletic.

Keith Law: When I get free, you won’t see me, here for dust. Klawchat.

Richard: Happy Thanksgiving Keith!!  Just a quickie:  with Jeremy Pena generally flying under the radar pre-season (not making the 100 prospects, etc…), was his strong season a credit to the major league staff, or rather he just wasn’t seen often enough by scouts in his brief minor league career?  Thanks!
Keith Law: I disagree with your premise. I had him second in the Astros’ system coming into the year and noted the jump in his exit velocities in 2021. He was hurt almost all of that season, though.

Signing Nimmo: It strikes me that Toronto wouldn’t have traded Hernandez without having a fairly certain replacement. Do you think they made the trade expecting to land Nimmo (he seems like the best fit) or do teams regularly gamble on this sort of thing?
Keith Law: I wonder if they believed Teoscar was more likely to repeat 2022 or regress and felt he wasn’t worth that expense given what else they could do with that cash in free agency or trade. He’s a solid player but hardly irreplaceable.

Signing Nimmo: Are Bellinger’s struggles mainly related to the shoulder injury or something else?
Keith Law: At this point, it seems odd to still blame the shoulder injury, but I suppose it’s possible.

TomBruno23: How can I enjoy the World Cup without thinking about how terrible Qatar and FIFA are?
Keith Law: You shouldn’t. I might watch a match or two, but my interest is low anyway with Italy out, and I won’t do anything to promote the event. The entire thing is repulsive.

addoeh: Any chance for a video chat, on whatever platform allows it, for your annual spatchcocking your turkey?
Keith Law: Yes, not sure when but I plan to carry on this annual tradition

The World’s Best Soundsystem: It seems like Miguel Vargas is going to get a legitimate shot to make the Dodgers roster out of Spring Training. Do you foresee anyone from the Busch-Pages-Outman-Amaya group getting regular ABs by mid season?
Keith Law: Busch seems like the closest/most likely of those four. Amaya’s not a regular, and I’m not sold on Outman as a regular given his swing and miss issues.

Noveau: Bit random, but putting aside the money they made, did the Upton brothers have disappointing careers?
Keith Law: I’d say so. Justin was done after age 30. How many highly athletic players like him are done that early without a catastrophic injury?

Jackie: When you BBWAA types gather in your secret clubhouse, do you ever question each other’s awards votes?  Do you go up to that one random voter who put Julio Urias 3rd on their ballot (and Daniel Bard 8th on the same ballot), and same, “Um, what?”   Or do you as a group just not care about the individual oddball votes, as long as the award ends up in the right place?
Keith Law: I care to some extent, like if a writer appears not to take his responsibility seriously, or has a history of favoring the home team (Tom Gage of Detroit, who of course won a Spink award, had Tigers atop his ballots several times when they were demonstrably not the best candidates). But  it’s not like we all see each other very often.

Jamie: What happened to Bobby Miller last year and has it affected the way you view his potential?
Keith Law: Um, nothing? what do you think happened to him?

KLB: Are you going to do a write-up of your NL ROY vote?
Keith Law: No, just because I had a couple of other things to write right as the award came out, and I’ve been busy with some family stuff. I had Strider over Harris because Strider’s season was so historic, but I have no issue with Harris winning.

PhillyJake: Pirates fan here.  Why does the owner of my team hate the the team?
Keith Law: Are you kidding? Bob Nutting loves the Pirates. He loves the free cash they generate even when they lose!

Sandra: Is AJ Preller’s approach going to lead to a sustainable contender or will shipping off every good prospect bite him in the ass by 2025?
Keith Law: Well, they contended in 2020, were in the race for a decent chunk of 2021, and then made the NLCS this year without their best player, so I’d say he’s already done that – but they could also hit a cliff in 2025 too.

Ray: Is Nick Gonzales the Pirates 2bman in 2023 and beyond?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Krontz: How do you think the Oakland stadium saga ends up?
Keith Law: In some way that screws over the taxpayers.

Moon Man: Do the Rays have significant lineup fixtures developing with Carson Williams and Mason Auer, or just some very smooth defense?
Keith Law: Auer has huge tools but I don’t think the contact skill is there to project him as a regular right now. Williams does too, but he was just 19 last year and he’s a shortstop, so he has a lot more time to improve and his position helps buoy his chances.

Guest: Hi Keith, thanks for the chat!  Seems the Mets really screwed up trading Endy Rodriguez for Joey Lucchesi.  Endy did not seem to be on anyone’s radar-was this a case of poor evaluation by the Mets?
Keith Law: Yes, it was a bad trade at the time that only looks worse now with Lucchesi getting hurt and Endy continuing to improve. He was enough of a prospect then that I praised the Pirates for snagging him in that deal (which sent Joe Musgrove to San Diego). I think Brodie just didn’t bother – he dealt prospects for big leaguers without regard to the relative values.

Mtd: Dave dombrowski calls you and makes you the GM starting now. What is your first player-related move you make?
Keith Law: They certainly don’t need me – they’re in very good hands with Sam Fuld. I’d say either work out an extension with Nola or go after Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts to play 2b.

Bill: Dodgers have until 5pm today. What would you do with Bellinger
Keith Law: Seems like a non-tender.

seans: Keith, what are your thoughts on Colt Keith and his performance in AZ?
Keith Law: He wasn’t very good for me … still young, but I wish I’d seen more from him at the plate.

Chris: Given the way the relief market has progressed, do you think a reevaluation of the way teams value elite relievers may be in order?
Keith Law: Until I see evidence that elite relievers’ performances over multi-year periods have changed, no.

Adam D.: How surprising has it been to you to see Farhan and company consistently miss on high draft picks? His entire philosophy is built on being to able to supply the major league club with cheap, young talent while also using some of that talent to trade for stars. Instead, seemingly everyone outside of Kyle Harrison has either stalled big time or is so far away that it might not matter when they’re ready because this regime may be gone by then.
Keith Law: Casey Schmitt is in the plus column for them, and I know Patrick Bailey has had back issues, which are pretty detrimental for a catcher, but I agree their first-round picks have not been inspiring. They’re all college guys (okay) but after whiffing on Hunter Bishop, a high-ceiling guy with huge exit velos and swing and miss concerns, they’ve gone lower ceiling and have missed there too. This year was a change in direction again, as Reggie Crawford is a very high-risk, high-ceiling college LHP coming off TJ.

Moon Man: After Adley was ROY runner-up, do you think the Birds are inclined to break camp with G-Rod in the rotation to increase his chances of taking home the hardware and bagging the extra draft pick?
Keith Law: I don’t think so given how they slow-played his return from an oblique injury this year and didn’t call him up to the big leagues at all.

Ben (MN): The Twins CF was not great when Buxton was out and involved way too many Gilberto Celestino at bats. In a situation with an extremely injury prone player like that, what would be your approach to the backup CF spot? Would you plug in the next person up, prioritize a corner outfielder who can handle center for 60-80 games if needed, or something else?
Keith Law: I like your second idea, getting a COF who can handle CF.

Tom: Keith, Nats SP Jake Irvin was recently described by Eric Longenhagen as a mid rotation SP and a 45FV. How do you evaluate him?
Keith Law: I’m quite a bit lower on him. Saw him in April, below average command and really scary arm action.

HH: Off-season reminder: the Australian Baseball League is up and running, and streams most of their games for free on YouTube. Witness the birth of a new market. Go Perth Heat.
Keith Law: Great tip.

Tom: Who should wsh draft with the first pick in rule 5 draft
Keith Law: No idea. I hate the rule 5 draft. The CBA in 2010 gutted it and the MLBPA missed a chance to fight for players’ rights. The available player pool has very few prospects in it and the results are even worse – in the last three rule 5 drafts, I think the only decent big leaguer has been Garrett Whitlock. Akil Baddoo had one okay season and then was awful in season 2; a team with a better system probably would have outrighted him by now.

Ben (MN): I went on a trip to Ireland this spring and went on an Irish literature kick after visiting the Irish writer’s museum. I’ve especially enjoyed reading modern Irish authors like Kevin Barry. Do you recommend any Irish authors other than the obvious ones (Joyce, Wilde, Shaw, etc.).
Keith Law: David Mitchell, Flann O’Brien, John Banville. Plus Anna Burns’s Milkman.

Chris: The Astros’ farm system has been ranked by many outlets as being a bottom-five system the last few years, yet they continue to produce home-grown talent? Is there anything you have seen in their graduated prospects you think you (or any other pundits) missed while they were in the minors?
Keith Law: Who have they produced other than Peña in the last two years? It’s a lot of guys who were already up and then improved in the majors, which is still a credit to the org but doesn’t impact their rankings in any of our eyes – Framber Valdez is a great development story, but he hasn’t counted as part of their farm system since the 2019 rankings.

Christian (Raleigh, NC): Hi Keith — As a fellow Agatha Christie enthusiast, I appreciate your review of ‘See How They Run’ and hope to see it soon. I am very much looking forward to ‘Glass Onion’ as well. Do you think we will see more of the classic-style whodunits in theaters and/or on TV given the success of  movies like Knives Out, etc.? I would definitely watch…
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. The American movie industry is as risk-averse as it comes. If the budget is more than a few pennies, the movie has to be a reboot, a sequel, or a knockoff of something else successful. Or by Jordan Peele.

Josh: Of all the shortstops do you believe that Correa will age the best?
Keith Law: Yes. Helps that he’s the youngest.
Keith Law: If you give him and Judge deals of the same length – say, 8 years – you’re getting both of their age 31-35 years, but you’re getting Correa’s age 28-30 seasons and Judge’s age 36-38 seasons.

Don Keedic: Who is the bigger injury risk: Rodon or Nimmo?
Keith Law: Oh Rodón, for sure. He’s a pitcher.

Mike: After seeing his rookie year, how likely is it that Oneil Cruz reaches his ceiling? And what would that look like? Seemed like he started making adjustments towards the end of the year, giving me hope he won’t be a .200 hitter
Keith Law: He was good enough in the minors that I am not less bullish on him now after a partial season in the majors that had some very high points amidst the struggles.

Samwise: Given that players on megadeals mostly aren’t worth the amount they’re paid in their final years, but also that you’re not going to land one without a willingness to commit those extra years – how far would you be comfortable going on Judge (if you had the money/need)?  Six years at a high AAV, understanding that the last 2 might be rough?  Seven?
Keith Law: I’m fine with six years with that understanding. It’s the talk of eight to ten years that makes me roll my eyes. That’s talk -radio stuff.

Prospect hound: What are your current thoughts about Matt McLain?  Average gonna be there?  Can he be above avg reg?
Keith Law: Fringe regular at this point. Not enough impact and definitely not a SS.

Francis Ford Coppola: You’re not a huge fan of my first two “The Godfather” films? I believe they’re not on your list of the top movies from the 1970s.
Keith Law: I don’t recall ever posting a list of my favorite movies of the 1970s.

Baseball: It’s Fun!: Many predictions see Adam Macko as a future lockdown reliever. What in particular holds him back from being a starter, besides durability? Is it something mechanical you think the Blue Jays (who seem to view him as a starter) could unlock, or is relief a surer bet?
Keith Law: Durability is by far the biggest reason. I also don’t think he has the command.

Jim: Keith, thanks as always.  Any thoughts (or care) about who’s going to be the House Minority leader?  (And nice shade by Pelosi saying she served under 4 Presidents when it’s been since Clinton…)
Keith Law: I’m glad it will be someone under 60.

Jay: Should the Angels trade Ohtani this winter?  I don’t see a realistic way they’re contenders  in 2023, and he seems like a guy looking to bolt for more successful pastures.  I can’t fathom what a reasonable return for him would be.
Keith Law: They should, but they won’t. I did hear, sort of third-hand, that he produces so much revenue for the team that no trade could make financial sense for them. And I believe that.

Gandalf: Who are a couple injury-prone or injury-history free agents that you see as a good gamble for 2023?  Heaney, Conforto, Brantley?
Keith Law: Yep, all three were on my top 50 free agents ranking. Conforto does worry me with his lower exit velocities in 2021 … this was a guy who needed a bit better contact quality, not worse.

Alex: No surprise Joc accepted the Giants QO but how surprised were you they offered him one?  They must think we no shifts allowed next year his production is going to go way up.
Keith Law: Maybe they just valued him as close to the QO number and preferred the devil they knew on a one-year deal than perhaps having to replace him with someone else on a two- or three-year deal without getting any more production.

Heather: Any red flags you see in Triston Casas, or should the Red Sox pencil him in for 150 games at first base next year?
Keith Law: I think he should get the majority of starts at 1b next year.

Gary R: Genuinely not trying to be a jerk, but how do you reconcile “I might watch a match or two” and “the entire thing is repulsive”? I ask because I am personally torn – I want to watch but it seems like tuning into any matches is just giving them my support in a small way.
Keith Law: What does me watching, say, the Wales-U.S. match (important in this household) do to support the World Cup? Very little. And once those teams are out I doubt I’ll watch another minute.

John: Sad news about Seth Romero.   Given that his curveball was once ++, will someone take a chance on him since it was “only” alcohol and weed?
Keith Law: His curveball wasn’t ++. His changeup was. He struggled with the breaking ball, and with control, and of course off the field. I don’t think he gets another chance until he shows some evidence that he’s willing to undertake major changes in his life. I hope he does so.

J.D.: After allowing Tyler Anderson to leave, are the Dodgers OK with what they have or do they need to go out and sign a good starter?
Keith Law: I bet they go sign someone.

chauncey: you opinion on the mlb award winners?
Keith Law: I think those were my choices for everything but NL RoY (ironic, since I actually voted on that), and I said above I’m totally fine with it. I don’t care about MoY. That’s just whoever ran a team that won more regular season games than expected.

HH: Why don’t more teams try to do what Cleveland did with Tony Wolters and try to convert more blocked prospects to catcher? Cleveland alone has a glut in IF, why wouldn’t they try again?
Keith Law: I don’t have a great feel for why more teams don’t do it other than perhaps risk aversion (don’t want to screw up a good prospect?). Wolters is a great example because he had a MLB career only because they converted him.

Heather: Any predictions on the upcoming “Contemporary HOF” vote next month?  Do Bonds/Clemens peers care less about the PED issues?  Any chance the committee says, “Yeah, all eight of these guys were a lot better than Harold F. Baines, so they all get in”?
Keith Law: I doubt Bonds/Clemens get in. I’m still fuming that Whitaker isn’t even on the ballot. It’s a fucking joke.

Jack: Hey Keith.  Love your chats. Do you believe Tatis when he says he got clostebol from ringworm medication?
Keith Law: I do not.
Keith Law: I’ve had ringworm, because I like to garden. It’s really annoying. It’s also easily treated with an antifungal.

Jamie O: If Jake Eder survives TJ, how high is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter, maybe more.

Villepont: Which top prospects with the shine worn off are prime for a change-of-scenery trade?  Kelenic, Adell, Robles?
Keith Law: I read Adell as “Adley” at first and was like, whoa, what did I miss
Keith Law: Those are all good choices although I think Kelenic can and will improve in Seattle. Forrest Whitley, maybe? Senzel comes to mind but I don’t know that changing orgs will do anything for him.

Paco: Hola desde España! f you could use statcast on any ballplayers of yesterday, who and what would you want to see? I’ve always
Keith Law: Willie Mays is the easy choice, no? Sprint speed and exit velocity?

Romorr: I know it’s hard to put a successful off-season on money spent. But with Elias saying it’s liftoff from here, and a payroll of 41 million heading into 2023, what is the least amount of money spent for this to be considered a successful off-season in Oriole land?
Keith Law: Really depends on who they get. They could spend a lot of money for limited return.

Holly: The worst Christmas song of all time (besides Christmas shoes) is?
Keith Law: “Step Into Christmas” or “Simply Having a Wonderful Christmas Time.” Both make me want to clean my ears with Brillo pads.

Jesse B: What are you thoughts on Daniel Lynch at this point? Does he still have a decent upside or backend starter?
Keith Law: He seems like job 1 for the new coaching staff in KC. They have had way too many top-flight pitching prospects fail to launch after reaching the majors. I think the new regime & pitching coach will at least help one or two of that group figure it out, and Lynch seems like the best bet, as he was the best prospect coming up and has the best arsenal right now.

Jay: Ten and a half months, and counting, left in the Chaim Bloom Era in Boston.  Are you as giddy with anticipation as New England is for the first Monday after the 2023 season?
Keith Law: No, but I’m not delusional.

Jamie: I guess I just meant statistically it didn’t seem like he had the great year that was expected. But I also wasn’t exactly watching his starts.
Keith Law: re Bobby Miller? He struck out over 30% of batters faced in AA and AAA with low walk rates and acceptable HR rates. I’m not sure what you’re seeing here but he’s fine.

Alex in Austin: If you had to pick one from this group for next year, who would you take: Gunnar Henderson, Josh Jung, Nolan Gorman.
Keith Law: Henderson.

Guest: Can you think of any logical reason to add a player to your 40-man ahead of the Rule5 draft who’s never played above A-ball?  Asking for my friend, Mike Rizzo, GM of the Nationals…
Keith Law: Because you believe someone else might select him and try to keep him.

Marani: Thanksgiving’s cool.  What’s your dumbest American holiday?  I have to go with “St. Patrick’s Day”.  What’s the point?
Keith Law: As someone with a bit of Irish heritage, I have zero interest in St. Patrick’s Day, also known as “Amateur Night.”

Tim: Isnt every elite reliever a failed starter?  Seems like if you can get 5-6 innings out of a guy vs. 1 inning per appearance you would every time.
Keith Law: Yes.

Salami Iconic: I know your feelings about Volpe but am not sure I have a clear understanding of how you view Oswald and Oswaldo- potential above-average regulars?
Keith Law: Cabrera no, Peraza maybe.

Kevin: What would you do to change the MLB offseason to make it more condensed like the other pro sports? I feel like if the MLB offseason ended by Xmas would be ideal as then you get football playoffs up to when pitchers and catchers report
Keith Law: I think an artificial deadline like that might only help owners, and I don’t want to do anything to help owners. They are doing just fine on their own.

Josh: Are you going to write up the Sea-Ari trade from yesterday? Would love your take
Keith Law: Probably not. Lewis has pretty much zero history of staying healthy and all the missed time has hurt him at the plate too. I’d rather have Hummel.

RAWagman: Klaw – as Twitter continues its rapid descent into hateful chaos, do you plan to run newsletters more often, or switch to posting your thoughts on a different platform?
Keith Law: I’ll stay there while it’s up, but I just sent out another newsletter today (it’s free! sign up here) and I’m on a few other sites as we wait to see what happens.

Finnegan: Garrett Whitlock is often cited on Red Sox message boards as being Chaim Bloom’s “best” move.  What am I missing?  I’m seeing an injury-prone middle reliever with vaguely above-average stuff.
Keith Law: Got 4+ WAR in two years for $50K and took a reliever from their direct rival. Nice move, no?

Ray: will Dalton Rushing stay at C! And where should he start the 2023 season? He tore up Low A.
Keith Law: Yes, and double A.

Anthony: I think Sox need to make Devers their best offer now and if he doesn’t accept trade him.They cannot afford to lose him next year for a draft pick.What say You?
Keith Law: Sure. I guess you could trade him in July, too.

Dr. Rich: Is Brent Rooker a pick up of note for rebuilding A’s or just another in a revolving door of 40 man COFs in the last 12 months?
Keith Law: I like Rooker for what he is but he is a stretch for everyday duty. Great Twitter follow, though.

Campbell: Now that he’s finally (fingers crossed) gone, what will you miss most about Tony LaRussa?
Keith Law: The easy to mock in-game strategic blunders?

Michael: Is Matt Mervis going to be Bryan LaHair 2.0? Or is he just a late bloomer because Duke had him pitch?
Keith Law: LaHair was nothing at all, and I don’t Mervis is that. Calling him a late bloomer is a bit of wishful thinking, though.

Quinn: Any plans to review Tár or Armageddon Time?
Keith Law: Yes but I have to see them first.
Keith Law: I have a policy of not reviewing movies until I see them. It’s an integrity thing.

CW: Lucchesi was traded by the sex pest, not Brodie.
Keith Law: Ah, thank you.

vogslaw: Wasn’t Trevor Stephan a Rule 5 success for the Guardians?
Keith Law: If that’s a success, it proves my point. He’s a solid but replaceable middle reliever. That’s what you get in the rule 5 draft.

Kevin: most overrated traditional thanksgiving dish? For me, it’s the turkey, better cold on a sandwich.
Keith Law: Longtime readers know I hate the gloppy gooey mess of green bean casserole. I also really don’t like any traditional sweet potato dish … they’re already sweet, why the fuck did you put brown sugar in there? And marshmallows? Are you eight years old? They’re a root vegetable, not Lucky Charms. Just double the stuffing and move on already.

Moe Mentum: Scott Kingery – what happened, and what’s next?
Keith Law: Phillies messed with his swing and he’s never quite been the same.

Caleb: Will be playing 7 Wonders for the first time this weekend.  Any advice for a newb?
Keith Law: It can be intimidating because there is so much to track on the cards. The main advice I’d have is try to balance your card plays so you have access to all six of the game’s resources by the end of Age II, either on brown/gray cards you played yourself or via yellow cards that let you ‘buy’ them from your two neighboring players.

Moe Mentum: I’ve never read an Agatha Christie novel. Where do I start?
Keith Law: Death on the Nile. I think that’s the first Poirot novel.’

Tom: What would you think of a Gallen, Kelly, Jameson, Nelson, and Pfaadt rotation?
Keith Law: Solid, but you might need a little more in that division. I’m not totally sure Jameson’s a starter although I’d start him out there.

Guest: Is Austin Wells a candidate to play C/1B for the Yankees this year? Do you think they’ll give him time at other positions this year for a multi-positional role?
Keith Law: I do not think he can catch on more than an emergency basis in the majors.

alex: DL Hall more likely long term, starter or reliever? Any comps based on stuff + lack of command recently?
Keith Law: I will continue to bet on his athleticism and that his command will improve. It’s not “recently,” as he’s had command and control issues since high school, but he went from a 15.6% walk rate in high A in 2019 to a 13.4% walk rate between AAA and the majors last year.

Guest: Is the Martian on the radar to contribute next season? He’ll enter this season with about 100 PA between AA and the AFL
Keith Law: Maybe in September.

Ken: Billy Beane moving to a “senior advisor” role for the A’s. Does this mean he’s basically one-day-a-week consultant? Any meaning for staying in Oakland versus moving to Vegas?
Keith Law: I don’t think this is any real change.

Ken from Entertainment 720: I know Clayton Beeter is a 50 grade on MLB.  Does he have top 3 upside or is he a 4/5 guy?  Also who is the  most likely prospect to end up at first base in the current Yankee system?
Keith Law: Durability & questions about third pitch make me think back end starter.

Jack: You don’t think Harris deserved NL ROY?
Keith Law: I said twice that I thought he was deserving.

David: Do you ever feel like there are too many books and not enough time? I have a list of things I want to read and every time I finish one I feel like I’ve added four more.
Keith Law: Always. I think I have 20-25 in my queue right now. Currently reading Nadine Gordimer’s The Conservationist, which I got for like £3 at a used books stall in Cardiff in August.
Keith Law: I do tend to read books in the order in which I got them, especially physical ones since it’s like a FIFO queue in real life.

Clay, Rutherford: Are you excited that the WBC is returning in the spring?
Keith Law: I am. I think it’s great for the sport.
Keith Law: Very much rooting for Team Czechia.

Appa Yip Yip: The Jays added Spencer Horwitz to their roster. Do you think he has a big league future? Can he stand in LF and not look foolish?
Keith Law: Tough choice there – if they didn’t protect him, someone takes him, but I think he’s an emergency call-up guy. No position, nowhere near the bat for a DH/1B type.

Greasy Nick: Would you rather work in a fine dining kitchen or an MLB front office?
Keith Law: I’m only qualified for one of those jobs.

Ken: Is there a reason that posters keep using Bloom’s full name when asking you about him?
Keith Law: I can’t possibly imagine what you mean…

BK: Kevin Smith had a rough year in his first season in Oakland. Do you see him bouncing back as the regular at third or will he fill more of a utility role?
Keith Law: Still buying.

davealden53: Question about the Tyler Anderson signing.  With the Dodgers’ qualifying offer of $19.65M, Anderson only needed to earn $10M each in 2024 and 2025 to exceed the deal he signed with the Angels.  That would seem a fairly low hurdle.  Does this imply that Anderson is risk-averse or is stability worth the potential lost income?
Keith Law: If you had his injury history, with just one good year since ~2017, wouldn’t you lock in the extra $20 million guaranteed?
Keith Law: I think it’s very rational.

James: What is the greatest individual tool you have ever scouted.  Like for example amateur Bryce Harper power
Keith Law: Joey Gallo’s power.

Old Hoss Radbourn: With twitter coming to an end, should we admit we are the same person?
Keith Law: We take this to our grave(s).
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for today. Keep an eye out … um, somewhere, maybe Twitter, but IG Live if Twitter isn’t functioning, probably on Wednesday as I take your questions while spatchcocking our turkey. Thanks as always for reading and following. Have a wonderful holiday!

Starting at 1 pm ET. I have two posts up (one and two) covering about three dozen players I saw in the Arizona Fall League, both for subscribers to The Athletic.

Keith Law: You’re calling all the shots. Klawchat.

James: Dave Roberts did nothing to warrant losing his job, right ?
Keith Law: Right. Really don’t understand the hand-wringing over the Dodgers losing a short series to a very good team.
Keith Law: This is the playoffs. We have upsets. It’s not about crowning the best team, but about crowning a champion. You have to accept that distinction or stop watching.

Jimmy: Team farthest away from being a playoff team?
Keith Law: The Rockies, for me.

Jimmy: Julio Wander or Witt next 10 years?
Keith Law: A healthy Wander. But I would bet all 3 make many All-Star teams.

Heather: What will you miss the most about the Liz Truss Era?
Keith Law: The lettuce.

Turner: Do you plan to read Cormac McCarthy’s new novels when they come out this fall?
Keith Law: I wasn’t aware he had any new novels coming, if that says anything.

Turner: The Orioles have a lot of hitters and few pitchers in their system. Is turning some of those hitters into an established frontlineish type starting pitcher something that can actually be pulled off or does it just sound reasonable in theory.
Keith Law: I think they have to do this, and it’s feasible. They have surplus at a couple of spots, including shortstop and the outfield. They’re not going to be able to get at bats for all of them if these guys all continue on their current trajectories, so converting a package of 3-4 of their hitting prospects into an above-average starting pitcher would be ideal.

RD: Kirby or Gilbert long term?
Keith Law: Kirby, given equal health.

Ken from Entertainment 720: Question on BABIP.  How do I know when it is skill or luck.  If a player is hitting .325 and has a certain BABIP how do I know if that .325 is based on skill versus luck on an elevated BABIP.  If his BABIP is sitting at .425 okay I get it it is luck (or the next Ted Williams) but if his BABIP is say .340 what factors do I use to determine luck versus skill here.
Keith Law: For starters, it depends on the hitter’s history of BABIPs – if he’s got a .340 BABIP this year, is that higher than his career norm? Much higher? OK, is he hitting the ball consistently harder? Or have some groundballs become line drives? Has his swing changed? Andres Gimenez went from under .300 in his first two stints in the majors to .353 this year. He changed his swing and started making much harder contact. That increase is some skill and some randomness. In his case I think it’s more of the former, based on what we see and what the data say.

barbeach: Hello KLaw!  Thanks for the chat.  What are your thoughts on what you’ve seen in the MLB so far from the Yankees’ Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera (SSS alert, I know!)?  Thanks much.
Keith Law: Peraza barely played. Cabrera showed similar skills to what we saw in the minors; he’s a low-OBP guy with power.  Probably not a regular for the Yankees.

xxx(yyy): big picture – was Kumar Rocker the right or wrong choice for the Rangers at #3? not asking if they should have taken another specific player, just if you think the process they went through to end up with Rocker was sound in your opinion
Keith Law: It truly depends on what’s going on with his arm, and I just don’t know the answer to that. If his arm turns out to be fine, it’ll be a solid pick. If not, meaning Texas evaluated the issue incorrectly or ignored/undervalued it in choosing him, then that was the wrong choice with Collier, Termarr, Green, etc. all still on the board.

addoeh: Being compared to Daniel Vogelbach only sounds bad if you think you have Anthony Rizzo 2.0.
Keith Law: Agreed. It was also very strange to get that kind of reaction about a prospect in a system that’s loaded with guys who are top 100 prospects or banging on the door – PCA, Triantos, Alcantara, Made, etc. It’s not like it’s Mervis or nothing over there.

Alex: With some luck, I can see the Pirates’ position players forming the core of a contender but it seems like their best young pitchers have #2/#3 ceilings. Do you think the Pirates can build a playoff-worthy rotation out of their system if their window opens in the next few years?
Keith Law: That’s probably right on the upper minors pitching. We’ll see how guys like Chandler and Solometo come along in the next year or two. This was their first full pro season, and both looked very good in limited time.

AM: I wasn’t a big fan of the Bucs picking Nick Gonzales and I worry that Termarr Johnson is similar- no clear defensive home and some questions about the projectability of the offensive tools given they’re a bit undersized. Am I overreacting?
Keith Law: Very different players. Gonzales was a college guy, so less risk for that reason and less upside. He also played at altitude, 4000 feet above sea level, which really skewed his performance and data. Termarr was a high school draft, so more risk there, but a better athlete with a better present hit tool on draft day. I’d be very surprised if Termarr didn’t become a better defensive 2b than Gonzales is.

Jibraun: Do you have an ETA on when Masyn Blaze Winn could be called up to the majors? Is mid-2023 too optimistic?
Keith Law: I think that’s too optimistic. You asked about Herrera taking over as catcher – I would like to think that’s their plan, and then Walker comes up later, and then Winn after that or even in 2024. He’s very talented but nowhere near as far along in his development as Walker.

Yankees Homer: Hey Klaw, what do the Yankees do about the left of their infield next year? IKF and the Racist are clearly not the answer. Is Volpe ready next year? How about 3B? Thanks!
Keith Law: I’m a Volpe guy. I’d try to get him 120 games or more in the majors next year. Even if he struggles at the start I believe he has the aptitude and athleticism to make adjustments.

Scott: It came up in your last chat that you haven’t seen Miguel Bleis yet.  I had noticed he wasn’t mentioned in your preseason prospect summary on the Red Sox.  Is that because he’s so far away?  The consensus seemed to be that he was the best FCL prospect this year.  I’m curious if you’ve heard enough from your sources that he might be in consideration in your next top 100.
Keith Law: He was only in the DSL in 2021 and didn’t stand out in performance or to scouts I know who saw that league. Different now that he’s played in the US against better competition and in front of more people.

Sage: You spent any time with Steve Stone?
Keith Law: Not really. Met him once over a decade ago. He was very friendly.

Jeff: I wonder if the Dodgers “failures” in the postseason are more due to approach and strategy towards a short series more so than anything else.  They seem to have a bullpen game in virtually every series including the most recent game 3 which was after not playing in round 1 and a day off between games 2 and 3.  I know the postseason is a small sample size so its not entirely indicative of who is the best team but when you have so much talent and you lose more than you win, something has to be the cause other than the randomness of the outcome of a baseball game/series.
Keith Law: How could we truly distinguish that from the randomness of a short series? I don’t know if we could. I also kept thinking the series might have been different with a healthy Buehler, although that’s all hypothetical (and then don’t you have to ask the same about Padres/Tatis?).

Alex: The Giants have been fairly clear they expect Kyle Harrison to be part of their rotation next year.  Maybe not at the start of the season but sometime during the season.  Is this a realistic expectation and what do you see as his ceiling/floor?  Thanks for all the great content and taking my question.
Keith Law: During the season seems very realistic to me.
Keith Law: Ceiling/floor is the kind of thing I will discuss at length in offseason prospect rankings. He’ll be on the top 100 again, and was on the midseason rankings.

Dave: So if gender identity is not metaphysical, but rather a matter of observable biological reality with (as you say) “clear scientific evidence” then shouldn’t we be able to test for it? That would allow us to prevent “false positives” and separate the truly trans from the future detransitioners, who are an ever-growing group of mostly-young people and whose stories are genuinely heartbreaking.
Keith Law: Autism is a matter of observable biological reality with clear scientific evidence, and we can’t test for it in the sense you mean. The last clause of your question is anti-trans propaganda.

Aaron C.: Did you hit up any new restaurants in the valley during the AFL or did you opt to play the “greatest hits” instead?
Keith Law: I have either four or five new ones to write up.

JT: Have we seen a statistically reliable post season series yet this year?
Keith Law: Is that a thing? Is it even desirable?

Greg: Hey Keith, do you see Justyn-Henry Malloy as a future every day left fielder or is he not at that level?
Keith Law: Yes.

Philip: Jackson merrill top 30 prospect now?
Keith Law: My gut is no, but I also haven’t sat down to start that exercise of ranking the top guys yet.
Keith Law: Top 100, sure, that’s an easy call. Top 30 is a very different question.

James: predictions for both series ??
Keith Law: I said Padres and Astros for the site.

Mo: Is it a fair criticism of the Cardinals that they seem to do very well in developing mid-level talent from out of nowhere, but have struggled to develop stars the last decade?
Keith Law: Is it? Flaherty would qualify as a star for me. I guess you’re not giving them Gallen, which is fair given where he became an actual star. Who have they had prior to Carlson/Gorman and the next wave who should have become a star, though? They had the 2017 draft where they had no picks till the third round. Prior to 2015 they had a lot of reach picks and have always drafted late in the first round anyway. I see a lot of value produced in the system overall but not many “he should have been a star but isn’t” guys.
Keith Law: If Carlson and Gorman flop, then the question is different.

Aaron C.: 30 years ago, guys like Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor were considered top prospects despite the lack of secondary pitches and an astronomical walk rate, respectively. Was there a singular turning point (a failed prospect, a draft year, an organization?) that opened the door to your predecessors/peers getting smarter?
Keith Law: The advent of the data era. We went from teams ignoring even basic performance data in the 1990s and prior to now teams hunting for tiny advantages in more granular data, finding a lot of hidden value but sometimes missing the forest for the trees.
Keith Law: I’ll take this mode of thinking over the old way, though.

Mo: What kind of slash line do you see from Masyn Winn when he gets to the majors? Will the bat a weapon or will he be a glove-first guy?
Keith Law: The glove will be valuable before the bat is.

Dave: As the only Cubs fan not currently furious with you, what did you see from Owen Cassie at AFL? I promise not to throw a tantrum if the answer isn’t to my liking.
Keith Law: I wish I’d seen more, actually. I liked him in the spring, but didn’t get many swings from him in the AFL.

Adam: Do you see Hunter Brown as a starter (top or bottom of rotation) or bullpen arm long term. Been very impressed so far.
Keith Law: Reliever, due to command.

Zac: Is Kerry Carpenter anything more than a 4th outfielder?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

nelson: every postseason i’m struck by how seemingly fragile a starting rotation is. in your opinion do teams generally do a good job with pitching strategy in the postseason? it’s often so different than what you would see in the regular season. is there anything that could better prepare them for success?
Keith Law: I don’t have a good answer to that.

Michael: Thoughts on the potential of Kodai Sanga?
Keith Law: He’ll probably get paid to be a starter, but I know a lot of folks question whether he can be a starter over here. He’ll be on my free agent rankings when they run next month, but isn’t in the top tier of guys.

Mason: So when do we cancel the playoffs and annoiunt the LAD rightful champs?
Keith Law: That was such a bizarre column – the first one, at least – and then someone tried to pit me against that writer on twitter, which I am not interested in doing at all.
Keith Law: And then other people piggybacked on this stupid idea. I think the Dodgers were the best team in baseball in 2022. The best team doesn’t always win – not in the playoffs, not in a series, not in any particular game.

James: Do padres have a legit shot to win it all ??
Keith Law: Don’t all four teams still in the playoffs have a legit shot? Once you’re in, you have a shot.

Jason: I got my (senior) parents Everdell last year and they play it daily, often four times or more in a day. Any suggestions that could follow the style of game but with a new/different play style? They love the fact that there’s so many ways to play.
Keith Law: That’s great to hear. Wingspan has a good bit of that too – you can win lots of ways, and often your best strategy is based on your starting cards, requiring you to play differently each time – and I think Lost Ruins of Arnak has some too, although that game is about twice as long as Everdell (2-player Everdell can be 35-40 minutes).
Keith Law: Raiders of the North Sea might fit too.

Aaron: First you criticize the Cubs for getting overly cute in the draft and taking a pitcher in a top-heavy hitting class. Then you trash an UDFA with a short track record of success. Why do you hate us so???
Keith Law: Heh. To be fair, I didn’t trash Mervis. I explained what I saw, which is consistent with the data from his time in the high minors AND with what other scouts who’ve seen him told me. I think he has some big league value.

JT: How ridiculous is the count the rings means of ranking individual players?
Keith Law: Doesn’t Clay Bellinger have three rings? So he’s miles better than Ernie Banks, right?

Chris: Do you think Carlos Correa would stay healthier at 2b? And do you think he’d be a good 2b or would he be better at 3b? Asking as a mariners fan whose president said yesterday they are looking to sign a SS who wants to move to 2b
Keith Law: I’d try third base if I wanted to move him. Second base isn’t necessarily a better position for staying healthy – the double play is always more hazardous for a 2b than a SS.

grobaba: How often do you buy frozen vegetables?
Keith Law: We always keep a supply in the freezer. Peas are the #1 choice, but we usually have that, corn, broccoli, one or two other things.

JT: Is there any chance that the Truss produce fail signifies a potential end to reckless austerity programs and small government?
Keith Law: Seems unlikely, no? But I don’t know British politics well at all.

Appa Yip Yip: What would you do with the Jays catcher situation? I’ve seen people floating the idea of playing Moreno at 3rd and the outfield but that seems like a poor use of resources.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t move Moreno. Defense is a huge part of his value. They could try to mix and match him & Kirk this year, and then trade one for something else they need.

Steve: Can Gorman hit enough for 2b or is he a DH going forward?
Keith Law: Oh his power will play anywhere. Are you asking if he can handle 2B defensively? I always thought he would.

Justin: Hi Keith. The Pirates currently have some pieces in place and coming soon like Cruz, Hayes, Reynolds, Bae (f*** him, but just reality that he’s here and decent at baseball), Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis, and some decent pitching.   Their payroll projects around $45 million next yr.  Do you think the better path would be to do something like trying to catch lightning in a bottle by getting payroll to $90 mil with additions like Jose Abreu and a few decent SP, or to just tank again with the cheap team they have?
Keith Law: If the owner were willing to spend – stop laughing – I’d go more for up the middle than an older corner bat like Abreu. You probably want to be more risk-averse in free agency, and more risk-loving in amateur player acquisition.
Keith Law: And yeah, some innings guys might help.

Chaz R: Verlander will likely opt out of his contract and become a FA. Should Astros resign him? If so what do you think the contract would look like ?
Keith Law: Yes, any contender should be interested, and given what he’s said about chasing wins milestones they’d remain a good fit.

Chris: Is Jake McCarthy real player? And who from the outfield mix is the odd guy out in Arizona? I know all players won’t develop and it’s not a surplus but who gets the chances?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s legit, and I wonder if Alek Thomas ends up elsewhere.

Ana: Regarding your claim that the sex binary is a myth, how is that true? Are you using “sex” to define something other than gametes? Every mammal is the product of *two* parents, one providing a small mobile gamete (sperm) and one providing a large stationary gamete (egg), and nobody produces both. This is fundamental science and the basis of complex evolution, which requires heritable traits that get passed down from *two* parents to their offspring. Two parents, two gametes = sex is binary. Any attempt to complicate beyond these facts is no longer an attempt to define “sex” but rather something else entirely. It’s a semantic game.
Keith Law: That’s just wrong. Biological sex is determined by chromosomes, not gametes, and there are more than just the two most common combinations (XX and XY). (Ana and Dave are the same user.)

Jim: Keith, what are your thoughts on the draft lottery in place for 2023?  On the one hand, it should somewhat lessen the urge to tank (with only a 16.5% chance of the worst team getting the top pick).  On the other hand, with it being instituted late in the off-season (well, in the middle of what should have been ST), does it unduly punish teams that may have planned the season under the old rules?
Keith Law: It seems like it has altered teams’ behavior, so I’m a fan.

JR: What has been the most disappointing adaptation of a beloved book into movie/TV show for you? For me, it’s Pachinko (which I believe you’ve read) for two reasons: 1) they tried to tell all facets of the story at same time by sharing a little bit of each era each episode; and 2) instead of using the book story as season one, they went it it with the idea it would be a 3-4 season story, so added a ton of extra details/characters/back stories (which I get you have to do in TV), but overall a huge disappointment to me – and I loved the book.
Keith Law: American Gods. Book is amazing. I never bothered with season 2 after the disappointing first season.

Henry: The NBA has established a great model by canceling all games on Election Day, and encouraging voting. MLB has done nothing, and their equity marketing is abysmal. What’s it going to take for MLB to catch up?
Keith Law: The players. The NBA and even the NFL are ahead because the players pushed it. In MLB, that’s not a thing. I’d guess a nontrivial minority of MLB players believe in the Big Lie.

Mike Trout: Should the Mets prioritize Nimmo? Of all their free agents he seems most likely to live up to his next contract.
Keith Law: Does he? Two full healthy seasons as a big leaguer. I’d be concerned about durability.

Bob: Is Endy Rodriguez a regular or is there more ceiling? Seems to be some question about his power. What days KLaw?
Keith Law: At least a solid regular.

Guest: In your estimation, what went wrong in the development of Corey Ray? I thought he was a near “can’t miss” prospect
Keith Law: Great question and I don’t have a simple answer. I do think it’s telling, and was probably a sign, that someone with his speed and athleticism couldn’t handle centerfield and wasn’t even very good in left. I do wonder if another organization might have handled him differently when he struggled right out of the gate, too. Eventually he changed his swing to get to power but at the cost of contact, and at that point he was pretty much finished.

Insert Witty Name Here: Oh been so long since I can get to a live Klawchat.  My wife and I have been discussing the whole transgender issue, and we have a question we want a third party to answer: what’s the threshold for a percentage of a population to where their rights become a “priority”.  Example: black people represent 16% of our population, I should prioritize their civil rights.  Transgender people are about 5%. While I personally believe that everyone should be treated fairly and with respect, is 1 in 20 people enough to where we need to prioritize their struggle? I believe you even said so yourself that it’s really a political strategy to demonize a small minority to rally up the base, is that correct?
Keith Law: What does “prioritize” mean to you here? Black Americans, gay Americans, women, trans people … they’re asking for the same rights as everyone else. Nobody is trying to give trans people more rights than cis people. However, a large movement – which is demonizing a small minority to rally their base, with the complicity of most of the national media – is trying to deny trans people basic rights, and to deny women basic reproductive rights, and so on. I do not lose anything when other people have the same civil rights that I do. I think I gain, because our society is better when we treat others as equals, and extend kindness rather than fear, ignorance, and hate.

TomBruno23: Unless you want to play a best of 75 it is not possible to have a statistically reliable postseason series, whatever that means.
Keith Law: Yep.

JJ: The stat line says that Nick Yorke took a solid step backwards this season.  He was viewed as a reach when the Sox took him in the first round in 2020, but he had a big 2021.  Is he still the second baseman of the future?
Keith Law: Maybe? I am uncertain after a not-great look in the AFL. He still has a great fucking swing, though.

addoeh: When you went to Alaska, did you do a cruise or just fly into Anchorage?  Did you go to Denali?
Keith Law: Only to Sitka for a weekend while I lived in Seattle. I would love to go to Denali and other parts of Alaska. My wife has never been so it’s on our short list of trips we’d like to take.

James: Do you do these chats at a coffee shop ??
Keith Law: I have, but I’m home right now.

Jon: How confident do you still feel about Dylan Carlson? I know you were high on him I’m still hopeful but this year was a tough one for him
Keith Law: I’m still in. The history of my breakout picks (he was one of mine for this year) says he’ll break out in 2023.

Scott (nyc): this may be a dumb question, but catchers seem to be the worst hitters, but shouldn’t seeing so many pitches as a catcher help them recognize spin and break while hitting?
Keith Law: Don’t catchers usually know what’s coming? Aside from the angle being so different, catchers know the pitch type, so they’re not using part of their brains to decipher that, while hitters must.

Ryan: Should we be concerned about Geraldo Perdomo? His average exit velocity is in the second percentile. It seems like he just needs to get physically stronger.
Keith Law: Yes, I share that concern, for that reason.

Kruk93: more surprising Phillies squad – 1993 or 2022?
Keith Law: I think 2022. The 1993 team won the NL East.

Steve: What would be your prescription for the Rays to improve their anemic offense? Seems like they should trade one of Glasnow/McClanahan/Rasmussen/Springs for hitting (the latter two more likely). A healthy Wander will obviously help but even aside from him and a couple others (Arozarena, Y.Diaz) it’s a wasteland, and guys who were supposed to inject some life into it (J.Lowe, Brujan) haven’t looked like they can hit much at the big-league level.
Keith Law: When you’re below the league median in both OBP (barely) and SLG (by a fair amount), you’ll be below the league median in runs per game. So fix one or both of those things. Wander will help. They may have to be patient with Lowe and Brujan. And going out to get a thumper wouldn’t hurt.

Marvin: How aggressive should the Yanks be with Jasson Dominguez next season? He seems to have shown the ability to make adjustments.
Keith Law: They already have been – he finished the year in AA and the AFL as a 19-year-old. He’ll start next year in AA in his age-20 season and I bet he’ll be in AAA by the All-Star Break.

TomBruno23: Aaron C…check out Bobby Witt’s numbers in college and in the minors. Man.
Keith Law: Funny, that’s exactly the name that came to mind. Zero chance he goes in the top ten today (he went third overall).

xxx(yyy): was Evan Carter just a guy who fell through the cracks and would in a “typical” year, or just a result of a COVID year draft?
Keith Law: Scouts saw a lot of swing and miss from him in high school. Texas took him high, so I don’t think he fell through the cracks – we don’t know if a bunch of other teams were waiting in the wings on him, either. I still think he’s too passive at the plate.

Jon: Assuming Cruz moves off SS, is Liover Peguero a guy or a GUY?
Keith Law: More of a guy. Disappointed in multiple looks at him this year. Needs to get stronger, but also his approach was behind where I thought it would be.

Sharlott: Gut on what Judge signs for (whether its the Yankees or not)?  Even with the superb season, I just don’t see him getting astronomically more than he turned down because of the age/injury-risk, no?
Keith Law: I think he gets more years than is prudent, but a lower AAV.

James: Do you like Joe Davis broadcasts or do you still watch on mute ?
Keith Law: Joe is fantastic. I’m very happy any time I hear his voice. Unfortunately I have not found the app that lets me hear him and mute Smoltz.

James: Thoughts on gas prices, inflation, direction of economy ? What grade would you give Biden so far ?
Keith Law: I don’t think any President has much if any control over gas prices or inflation, unfortunately. Lot of things a President can affect, but gas is a global commodity, and we are subject to the whims of the market. When the Saudis choose to cut production – and that’s a whole can-open-worms-everywhere situation – we’re largely at their mercy. I also think inflation would be less of a concern if wages were keeping pace, and that is something that the President could do more to help when his party controls Congress.

Tracy: Book question: any recommendations of mysteries? Thanks!
Keith Law: The Magpie Murders by Anthony Horowitz.

JR: Are tommy john surgeries/serious pitching injuries trending down? The past season or two feel like there have been less. Perhaps all the steps organizations are taking to protect arms are working? O
Keith Law: I don’t think TJs are trending down across the whole sport, but I believe that other significant arm injuries are down.

Chris: About how much of your boardgame time is spent replaying tried and true games from your collection vs trying new ones?  Back when I first started playing games, we’d get a lot of plays in on a smaller set of titles and really get to explore the different strategies and meta-strategies that develop from repeated plays.  It’s much harder to do that now when folks around the table want to try the shiny new thing (and the collection has gotten much bigger as well).
Keith Law: Way more playing new stuff. I would prefer to balance it more with family favorites, but I get so many new games to review and I want to try them all.

Nick: Thanks for the chat. Did you get a chance to see any of the Tigers contingent in AZ? Meadows appeared to make some improvement this year and Keith was off to a good start before the injury.
Keith Law: Meadows wasn’t good for me. Keith also had a rough week.

TomBruno23: Ryan Loutos…not exactly a top prospect although his background as a Wash U pitcher on the doorstep of the majors is cool. Also cool is the scouting analyst who signed him is Julia Prusaczyk. Women in Baseball. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/cardinals-righthander-ryan-lou…
Keith Law: 93-95 with what I thought were two distinct breaking balls. Reliever all the way. He’s something, though.

Michael Bluth: Where does Bryan Reynolds settle in as a player? 3-4 WAR most years?  Better than that?  And defensive metrics hated him in CF, is that likely to change at all?
Keith Law: I think a 3-4 WAR corner outfielder is about right.

Billy: How does Jordan Lawlar look in the Fall League? AZ Republic quoted a scout who said he looks better than all the rest of the Dbacks players. That’s incredible, since Carroll looks like a stud.
Keith Law: He was in my first AFL notebook, linked at the top of this chat.

JT: “Two parents, two gametes = sex is binary. “

Remind Ana that there aren’t only two eye colours, too, hey? How two gametes mix has to produce an I/O sitch?
Keith Law: It’s a rather weird, new to me transphobic argument. Just leave other people and their bodies alone. It’s not your business.

John: To what extent does WAR take into account how often a player is on the field?  I assume it doesn’t.  But if I sign a high WAR player with an injury history (thinking Correa), then I really need to make sure I have a relatively strong utility player who can fill the gaps. Viewed through that lens, would it be preferable to sign a player with a slightly lower WAR but who stays on the field more (e.g., Bogaerts, if we ignore that his WAR was slightly higher than Correa’s this year)?
Keith Law: Of course it does – if you hit at the same rate in 80 games vs 160 games, your WAR for the latter total (ceteris paribus) will be a lot higher.

Swinging A’s: Zack Gelof, just a guy or a GUY.  Thanks Keith
Keith Law: I’m in. He’s a GUY.

twinkie town: Did you get a chance to see Edouard Julien in Az?   If yes, your impression?
Keith Law: All I saw was him taking pitches. My gut reaction was that he is also too passive.

Michael: “When should I prioritize their civil rights?” What a joke. How about not try to willfully hurt anyone?
Keith Law: Do unto others, no? I thought that was in that book the transphobes are so fond of?

Todd: Thoughtrs on Will Warren Yankees? Legit MLB starter?
Keith Law: Reliever. Wrote him up in August.

Mike: Do you think it’s a coincidence that Bader, Donaldson and Torres will all have their contracts run out when Volpe, Peraza and Dominguez should be ready for MLB full time?
Keith Law: I do not think it’s a coincidence, at least around Volpe. I’m pretty sure they were low key betting on him being ready for 2023, recognizing that the free agent market would probably cover them if he wasn’t (and that’s before we knew Correa would get an opt out).

Ollie: Did you have Daulton Varsho becoming an elite defensive outfielder on your 2022 bingo card? Because I sure didn’t! Wow, he’s such a good athlete.
Keith Law: I absolutely, 100% did not have that.

Michael: Hey James, check out how inflation is in other countries compared to the US. Much lower here
Keith Law: The Euro zone is around 10%, almost 200 basis points above ours.

Insert Witty Name Here: By prioritize, I mean changing my usual behavior.  For example, is a pronoun really a rights issue? If I mistakenly call a “they” a “him”, that person gets upset. Is 5% of the population a large enough sample size to where I have to be fully cognizant of what language I use? And if so, what’s the threshold for us to have to worry about everyone preferences? 2%? 5%? 10%?
Keith Law: Using proper pronouns is a hardship?

Dave: You’re running the Orioles. Do you spend on a starter and let the young position players play?
Keith Law: Yes, and see above for more on what I would do (and expect them to do).
Keith Law: I don’t think they were actually as good as their record this year, but I also think they will be a flat-out better team next year even without outside help. So give them outside help and they might be a 90+ win team.

Kevin Made: Did you get Cristian Hernández and I mixed up in your earlier response to the Mervis question?

Also thoughts on Jordan Wicks’ new slider? Stuff+ loves it. Does it bump his ceiling up?
Keith Law: I did not confuse the two of you.

TomBruno23: Interesting episode of The Daily this morning about how Republicans are using Inflation, Crime and Immigration as the issues to sway swing voters.  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000583…
Keith Law: I saw a ridiculous number of political ads and billboards in Arizona, and the two most common themes for Republican candidates were the border (overblown, but at least they’re a border state) and … fentanyl. It’s like some focus group told campaign managers that fentanyl was a new four-letter word or something. Nobody is putting fentanyl in your kid’s Halloween basket. You can’t get sick just by touching it. All these myths about papers soaked in fentanyl and fentanyl wiped on car doors … they’re hoaxes, and also ridiculous, because what user or dealer is just throwing the stuff away anyway?
Keith Law: You know what I didn’t see mentioned anywhere? The pandemic, which has killed over a million Americans. Or wages.

Mike: Global inflation is the product of 10+ years, and multiple adminstrations, artificially depressing interest rates by increasing the money supply.  Inflation at some point was a mathematical certainty – it was just a matter of when and how high.
Keith Law: Good point.

Michael: Hey Keith- I know changing of a manager is usually not worth more than a couple wins. Was there something specific in the change from Girardi to Rob T that made it such a huge impact on the Phils season? Or are you not buying that the change was the reason for the subsequent success. Post hoc ergo propter hoc or no?
Keith Law: I am more inclined to believe such a change mattered when specific players improve after the change in meaningful ways – like Stott.

Appa Yip Yip: If you meet someone named Thomas and they’re like actually I prefer Tom is it a hardship to call them Tom?
Keith Law: Don’t a lot of people get irrationally upset if they’re called ma’am instead of sir or vice versa?

ChrisP: How soon before Neto gets to the big leagues? His skill set seems like he might be a quick mover
Keith Law: I would guess by mid-2024.
Keith Law: Although it’s the Angels, he might be up next week.

Guardians: What do we have in Nolan Jones? Future big leaguer?
Keith Law: Big leaguer, more likely a platoon or bench guy than a regular.

Insert Witty Name Here: You’re not getting the point of my question.  We haven’t been using “they/them” for that long as a social issue.  Because they only represent 5% of the population, is there another population of people that represent 5% to where we have to change our usual behavior to their preferences because of their feelings? If I call a they/them a him because they look like a typical man, why should I feel bad about that?
Keith Law: The singular they/them has existed for centuries. Just ask people and try to use their pronouns. Also, I’m 1000% certain that the biggest issue for LGBTQ+ folks isn’t pronouns. It’s their right to exist.

TomBruno23: Has Mike Matheny managed his last MLB game?
Keith Law: Nothing personal against the guy, but I think that is for the best.

xxx(yyy): what is your at home coffee routine/process?
Keith Law: I either use a V60 pour-over or make an espresso macchiato (so a double shot with a small amount of foamed milk). I go back and forth. The former has more caffeine because I use about 20% more coffee by weight, so sometimes that’s the determining factor. Today I needed that extra 20%. And then that’s usually my only coffee for the day.

James: Did you watch the Pizza show on Netflix ? With Bianco in it
Keith Law: No but I need to. I tried to go to the original location when I had an unexpected window on Saturday and they had a four-hour wait – it hasn’t been like that in years. Great for them. Less so for me.

Todd: How much of a concern is it that after the November elections, Republicans will have so much control that a plain sight coup is actually possible? Validate elections that only benefit them
Keith Law: Everyone should vote their conscience. I do believe that our democracy’s health is very much at stake this November, though.

Tracy: Too many books, so little time?
Keith Law: Absolutely. I’m about 3 behind in reviews now, too. And I have the Hugo winner (A Desolation Called Peace … what a pretentious title) checked out from the library, and would like to get the Booker winner soon too. Plus I bought seven books at Changing Hands in AZ.
Keith Law: I could live in a very small house if I didn’t have all the books and board games.

Todd: Piggy backig off the above, how far removed from Trump’s mere existence do we have to be to actually get back to pre Trump politics? Or a sense of rationality
Keith Law: Last question for this week … No political movement is going to go away if it works. If voters reject a movement, it’ll die off, and in our case the party in question will swerve to something else. That’s true for either party, for any movement. Trumpism will endure as long as it wins elections. When that stops, the Republican Party will shift to a different set of ideas or policies, or perhaps another candidate. The same would be true for Democrats – it’s not the same thing, but the party abandoned a lot of its principles during the Clinton era for the sake of retaining power. I don’t think this is any big insight.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat. My next big post for the Athletic will be my free agent rankings, which will run after the World Series ends, maybe the next day depending on the schedule. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions!

My hypothetical postseason awards ballots column is up now for subscribers to The Athletic. I also reviewed the board game Wormholes, a good gateway game to play with your kids.

Keith Law: There’s no point in asking, you’ll get no reply. Klawchat.

Bighen: Ton of chatter on Mets holding deGrom out of game 2 if they win tonight, how would you align their rotation? Also Carrasco or Walker if Mets need to use 4th starter at some point.
Keith Law: Not a big fan of that unless there’s a health-related reason to do so. Don’t outsmart yourselves.

Alex: The Red Sox just dropped $220 million to finish in last place (for the 2nd time in three seasons).  Is Chaim Bloom just not qualified to run a big market team?  It’s one thing to be an assistant in a “Nobody Cares” market like Tampa, but Boston is a completely different animal.  He’s traded away Betts, Benintendi, Renfroe, Springs, Vazquez et al, and received nothing of note in return.
Keith Law: Jeez, this is the most knee-jerk take imaginable. Ownership forced the Betts trade, and it’s not like Verdugo is nothing, just a good platoon player. Not sure what you thought they’d get for Springs or Benintendi or even Renfroe (I like Binelas some, although the AA debut was very disappointing; he hits the ball very hard). And you’re underselling Wilyer Abreu a ton. But the bigger issue is that you’re reacting based on a small subset of decisions in a short period of time.

Doug: What’s Cristian Pache’s future in MLB?  4OF? Starter?  He’s young of course, but hasn’t done much with his opportunities so far.
Keith Law: I think he’s a starter, but he clearly hasn’t been ready for MLB pitching and the decision to promote  and keep him up so much of last year looks bad in hindsight. Defense & power are more than enough for him to be an average regular, but the A’s are going to have to just live with the low OBPs for a while now.

Jay: Why is there a rush to introduce a pitch clock at the MLB level? Are we really in a rush to fill air time with more empty talking head type shows rather than a live event? No thank you.
Keith Law: Oh I’m a big fan of the pitch clock after seeing how much it speeds up minor league games. It gets rid of a lot of dead time – which, by the way, might just be filled with empty commentary because so many broadcasters are afraid of silence.

Heather: I’ll give you five dollars if you can promise me, right now, that I’ll never have to hear from or about Tony LaRussa ever again.
Keith Law: I wish I could promise that, but you know next June some reporter with no new ideas will track him down to get Old Man Yells at Cloud content.
Keith Law: TLR had a great career. It is a shame it had to end with this regrettable stint in Chicago. It’s like when an acclaimed actor’s last film is some B movie or voicing a character in the Emoji Movie or something.

JJ: Brayan Bello has never thrown more than 118 innings in a season in his professional career.  What kind of cap, if any, would you put on him in 2023?
Keith Law: I don’t feel remotely qualified to answer that. One, I know nothing about his arm or his health. Two, the claim that there was some magic threshold around +30 innings is unsupported by evidence.

Guest: Can you explain why you consider Bonds’ record to be legitimate? It was clearly obtained through committing crimes and breaking the rules of the game, aka cheating. Lance Armstrong was stripped of all his titles and records. I don’t see how this is any different
Keith Law: “Clearly” is doing a lot of work there. I know of no evidence he “committed crimes” and the reality is that the rules of the game to which you refer were either unenforced or nonexistent (e.g., MLB didn’t ban the use of HGH till 2005). Bonds never tested positive for any PEDs. That is by far the best and most objective standard we can use. He failed as many tests as Maris and Aaron did – and given that HGH and amphetamines were available by 1960, I’m not sure why we would assume anyone from a prior era is automatically clean just because there was no testing.

Tom: Hey Keith – do you think Jake Alu could be an everyday regular next season for the nats?
Keith Law: I don’t, unless he’s a much better defender at third base than I realized. That would make him a regular.

Jourdyn: Spencer Strider or Alek Manoah long term?
Keith Law: I love both but I’ll bet on Manoah because of the broader pitch mix.

Efrim: How impressed are you with Alex’s work with Atlanta since taking over? Obviously he was always thought of as a good exec, but the work he did in revamping the front office and adding more analytics based employees. Plus, Dana Brown(amateur draft hire) has worked out well.
Keith Law: Overall, he’s been outstanding, although having worked with Alex I’m 0% surprised by this. The one real misstep I saw was firing Brian Bridges, whose drafts look even better in hindsight, although I can’t say that Atlanta’s drafts have suffered much in his absence either.

Al: How many owners kill their teams Championship chances in the name of money?
Keith Law: Expanding the playoffs actually makes this easier, so look for that number to increase. I might have said Cleveland except they’re in the playoffs and I think they have as good a chance to win as any team.

Michael: Any explanation for the very good season by Pujols after years of being terrible? How about Tyler Anderson? Is one season just a SSS or did they do something different?
Keith Law: The Cards used Pujols very judiciously – like 1/3 of his PA vs LHP, whom he’s always hit. .315 OBP vs RHP. Anderson’s I think is a little more interesting – some health, some increased use of the CH (which was his best pitch all the way back in college).

Tom: any concern with Cj abrams offense, specifically his low walk rate, in 2022?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: He needs to get stronger. That’s it for me.

Juwan: The Meneses ride was exhilarating in an otherwise horrendous season, do you view the bat as real?
Keith Law: Great story, but no.

Jack: which core would you rather have (pirates young talent / orioles young talent) ?
Keith Law: Orioles. Although they’re short on pitching – this is the time to trade some of this young hitter surplus to go get at least one experienced starter.

G: Oneil Cruz improved at the plate as the season went on, and did enough in the last month to give me genuine optimism about his future at the plate. With that being said, is there any reason for the Pirates to continue playing him at SS next season?
Keith Law: No. He was one of the worst defenders at SS this year by OAA, and given his size the odds have always been against him staying there. I’d move him to CF and let him put the speed to better use.

James: Does this project to be a strong top of the draft? What do you view as its strength?
Keith Law: Much better college pitching in 2023. Don’t know if I’d call it “strong” but it’s a more interesting group of players in the first round.

Tom: Sss alert – but Elijah green proving those swing and miss reports may be accurate – any concern after seeing him struggle with that in his pro debut?
Keith Law: Twelve games. He only played 12 games. We can’t draw any conclusions from that.

Captain Marani: Does Yadier Molina get into the HOF?  In St. Louis, home of The Best Fans in Baseball, he’s considered a mortal lock, but he better hope that he and Buster Posey are never listed side-by-side on the voters’ ballots.
Keith Law: I have a feeling he’s going to end up getting in given enough time. Vizquel was probably going to get in, with a worse case than Molina, until the stories alleging domestic violence and sexual harassment came out. Prior to that, I thought they were similar players – very good but not HoF-worthy, overrated by specific subsets of writers who could be swayed by comments from other players, coaches, managers, etc.

Champdo: How worried should we be about Torkelson
Keith Law: He’s 22. I didn’t love him the one time I saw him as a underclassman, because I didn’t see great bat speed or athleticism, but all he ever did from that point until his debut this year was hit for average and power. I’ll defer to the long history of performance here.

Paul: Do you like the draft lottery? Seems a fair bit more punitive than other lotteries in other leagues with the worst teams potentially falling to the bottom of the top ten rather than the middle of the top ten if they aren’t lucky.
Keith Law: I do think it’ll deter some tanking, and reduces the chances of a team drafting #1 overall three straight years like Houston did. I would prefer to see a system that pays the very best 5-10 players in each class more fairly, with some sort of modified free agency for them, but that’s probably never happening.

Patrick: I feel like a lot of people still sort of view Ohtani playing both ways as sort of a novelty, where the main pull is the *uniqueness* of it. His pitching especially didn’t seem to get the respect it deserves this year, when he is a legit Cy Young candidate. Am I wrong in thinking that?
Keith Law: You are correct now that he’s finally pitching like the guy he was prior to signing with the Angels. He became a CYA contender this year, really.

Troy: Burnes/Yelich/Mitchell for May/Lux/Vargas/Miller who says no?
Keith Law: Why would the Dodgers do that? Yelich’s contract is an albatross. And the Dodgers seem quite able to draft and develop pitching.

Ted: Just wanted to recommend Iain Reid’s new novel “We Spread.” His previous novels have been very entertaining, both are quick reads and I can understand why they were both turned into films. The new one packs a genuine emotional punch, though. Worth checking out.
Keith Law: Not familiar with his work – thank you.

Owen: What do you make of Andrew Heaney’s season? Is it projectable going forward?
Keith Law: Yes.

Devon: Hi Keith! Thanks for the chat! I was wondering how you feel about Wander’s power? Hamate bone might have been bothering him for awhile…
Keith Law: Yeah, write off his 2022 completely for that reason.

Ryan: How concerned are you about Alek Thomas going forward? Great defense but it seemed like he wasn’t able to pull anything with authority in the second half
Keith Law: I was extremely surprised and disappointed by his low contact quality. I never thought he was a big power guy – average at best – but he didn’t hit the ball hard at all in the big leagues this year, and that is a concern.

frank: Sean Hjelle had some good appearances for the Giants at the end of the season.  Is he anything more than a back of the rotation starter?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I think he’s capable of being a 4th or 5th starter.

Jay: Why is it that, every time I watch “The Godfather” (I & II only, of course), Diane Keaton gets more and more annoying?  Forget about offing Fredo, Tony, you’re better off whacking Kay!
Keith Law: Yes, she’s a poorly written character, to put it mildly. That’s a movie written and directed by men about men. She’s a prop.

Baseball: It’s Fun!: More interesting division/divisional race going into 2023: AL East or NL West? The Diamondbacks seem poised to at least take a step forward and the Giants are bound to look better than they did this year, plus the Orioles, Sox and Rays should be much improved on the AL East side. What do you think?
Keith Law: I think the AL East. The Dodgers are still a juggernaut, and the Rockies are not going to contend next year. But the AL East might have five legitimate contenders next year, and I don’t think any team is head and shoulders above the rest there like the Dodgers are in the West.

Steve: Re: Boston and Bloom – I mean Boston hasn’t been to the ALCS since….2021
Keith Law: It’s a drought.

Pat: Every prospect ranking had Victor Robles as pretty much guaranteed as at least a league average regular- if not signifcantly more.   What happened to him, and is it too late to find it?
Keith Law: He is what will happen to Alek Thomas if Thomas doesn’t start hitting the ball harder.

Leites: Hi Keith!  Curious what you see as the upside for Elehuris Montero and Michael Toglia at this point . . .
Keith Law: I still give Montero a chance to be a regular. I don’t see it with Toglia.

Benji: If you were Scott Harris, how aggressive would you be this offseason? Lots of roster turnover is coming, but would you expect that to be filled with more interesting AAAA players and spare vets or legitimate middle to upper class FAs? Long ways to go or with the perpetually weak AL Central does it make sense to push sooner?
Keith Law: I think you have to fix whatever’s going on internally – lack of development + lot of injuries – before you go externally.

Roger: Thoughts on the debuts for Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson? They seemed to get hit pretty hard in AAA but had great outings in the majors. I don’t want to be the box score guy but I haven’t been able to watch actual tape of their MLB starts yet.
Keith Law: Bear in mind that their AAA club is in Reno, about 4000 feet above sea level, and plays a ton of games at other extreme hitters’ parks. I mostly disregard all of their stats from there as I do with Albuquerque.

Appa Yip Yip: Have you gotten any looks at Addison Barger?
Keith Law: Yes and I wrote about him here: https://klaw.me/3wAuQpa

Lorne: Is Baltimore an “attractive” FA destination since the future is/at least looks bright? What once was a great baseball city has suffered through some tough decades (?) and it’d be nice to finally see a rebound
Keith Law: I absolutely believe any team is an attractive destination for free agents if they offer more money than any other club.

JR: Was a little surprised you had Judge as MVP. While clearly you laid out the rational reasons it’s just hard for me to comprehend how a guy like Ohtani that does so well as a hitter and pitcher isn’t an auto win for the MVP. I figured the Judge rhetoric was media trying to talk itself out of Ohtani so I appreciated you laying it out with the numbers to back it up.
Keith Law: I talked about it on my pod yesterday with Stephanie Apstein. I was surprised (but am not disagreeing) that she thought Judge would win it in a rout – I thought Ohtani would get more of those he’s-a-novelty votes. But she probably has a better feel for this than I do.
Keith Law: BTW, thank goodness they didn’t overturn that HR call. What a shitshow that would have been.

Moritz: Hi Keith, not sure if you have seen it or commented on it already. MLB have decided to black out the postseason for all international MLB TV users. Great Job growing the game…
Keith Law: I haven’t seen this and can’t find anything on this in a quick search. Is that accurate? Are they just charging more or something?

Dan: How much credence do you give people like Chris O’Leary (aka The Pain Guy on Twitter)? He claims to have “fixed Adam Wainwright”
Keith Law: Zero.

Kevin: Thoughts on shift “ban?” Do you think teams will just work around it by shifting the LF into short right against lefties or is that too much of a risk leaving the LF line wide open?
Keith Law: I hate it. That’s the one rule change I truly oppose. We’ve never really told teams where to put their fielders before. What reason do we have to start now?

Dan: If you had to pick the top 5ish things for the Nats to get back into contention, what would you choose?
Keith Law: They need more production from their drafts. I see just about all of their draft picks coming through Wilmington (Cole Henry is one big exception, as he’s been hurt so much but pretty good when healthy) and they are not getting the value they need to be getting, especially from top picks.

Dave: Is it really so wrong to think that “gender identity” is a superstitious, metaphysical concept on par with that of a “soul” and that it shouldn’t replace biological sex in law? And that teaching a child that he or she could have been “born in the wrong body” because of their “gender identity” is abhorrent? This seems like the correct rationalist position to take.
Keith Law: It is wrong, because unlike the soul, there is clear scientific evidence for a gender identity that differs from biological sex. I’m sorry that this bothers you, but facts do not care about your feelings.

David: Keith, What do you see as the ceiling for Endy Rodriguez? Also, what position do you think he plays? I’d say catcher but I know having Davis also in the system may force a move.
Keith Law: Above-average everyday catcher. Nice problem to have there. I do think they have a year to figure it out with Davis missing so much of 2022.

Guest: I think the obvious answer for Pujols’ “very good season” is that it turns out that he’s YOUNGER than reported. Everyone had it all wrong this whole time.
Keith Law: That’s funny.

Aaron C.: I know you generally need multiple looks at a prospect to make an informed analysis. But, when it comes to restaurants, if you have a mediocre-to-bad experience the first time, are you inclined to give them another chance(s)?
Keith Law: I’m not. There’s a place in Philly where I had a terrible experience, and even though it’s consistently ranked among the top 5-10 in the city, I don’t see why I’d go back there and spend money again when there are so many other great places here.

James: what do you think of Rockies Brendan Rodgers so far ?
Keith Law: Disappointed. Just hasn’t been the hitter I expected based on my looks in HS.

Jackie: What, if any, awards vote do you have this year?  How is that decided?  Why does a vote get an MVP ballot, instead of a Cy Young or Manager of the Year?  (Also, my bold prediction/guarantee:  Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe, a loyal employee of John Henry, will be giving his third place vote, regardless of ballot, to Rafael Devers.)
Keith Law: I have NL RoY. They’re assigned by the BBWAA. Each chapter gets 2 votes for each of the four awards, and each writer typically gets just one ballot unless the chapter is short of voters.

Michael: Will you quit Twitter when the Musk deal closes?
Keith Law: No. I already use it far less than I did 3-4 years ago because it’s pretty toxic and Twitter does such a terrible job of dealing with misinformation and harassment.

Romorr: RE the Orioles question, do you think they should trade for a starter, and sign one in FA? Or trade for 1, and add a bat. I like Kremer, Rodriguez, and Bradish to start the year, so adding 2 starters sounds good to me.
Keith Law: Bradish isn’t a starter. Kremer is more of a back end guy. I do love Hall but the control isn’t there yet. They really need to add a couple of starters.

Michael (W Hartford CT): Do you think that MVP voters should consider the negative impact of having to use a sixth starter in assessing Ohtani’s candidacy?
Keith Law: If a voter were boosting Ohtani for him filling two roles with one roster spot, I’d say that’s ignoring the fact that they need the sixth starter for him, which negates the roster advantage.

Romorr: 174 K’s for Colton Cowser was a surprise to me. The walks are good, but is there anything to the high amount of K’s going forward?
Keith Law: I think he’s a solid regular, don’t think he’s going to strike out enough to detract from that, and some of the Ks were from the aggressive promotion to AAA to end his first full pro season.

James: Do you think we will see more teams give out big contracts to very young players to try and save long term ? Like the braves have been doing
Keith Law: Yes – teams already are doing that, or trying it. But Atlanta got two guys to accept well below-market deals (Acuña and Albies) where others haven’t had that success.

Kevin: Has Hayden Wesneski’s major league performance raised his status in your/evaluator’s eyes or too small of a sample size?
Keith Law: Small sample size but I think I was fairly positive on him at the time of the trade, too.

Jason: Does Carlos Beltran get in on the first ballot?  I always put him in that “solid candidate but not a mortal lock” category, but some segments of baseball fandom seem to hold the Houston cheating scandal against him (though, for the life of me, I couldn’t tell you what he actually did).
Keith Law: I think he was a first ballot guy until the scandal. I will be voting for him.

Dave: What are your thoughts on the Scott Harris hire in Detroit?
Keith Law: Everything I’ve heard about him has been positive. I’d really like to know who else they interviewed, though, as it looks like they just ignored MLB’s guidelines, and I have a hard time seeing how diversity is ever going to improve in the exec suites if teams don’t even give non-white male candidates a chance in the process.

James: Would you rather have Zac Gallen right now than Jazz ?
Keith Law: No. I would take either of them quite gladly.

comish4lif: I view the Bonds home run records as legitimate. That’s my personal choice and decision. The main fact pushing my choice is that MLB and Bud Selig did very little to stop it at the time. Now Bud is in the BBHOF and Barry is not. It would be a lot of work to convince me that MLB, Teams, etc didn’t know about the steroids in the game.
Keith Law: Bud Selig (and Bowie Kuhn) did not deserve their enshrinements. But that process – the crony committees – is an absolute joke.

Doug: Cole Winn had a rough year statistically (awful walk rate).  Cause for concern or just tougher competition as a 22 yo in AAA?
Keith Law: Different baseball in AAA (although I think this year the Southern and Texas Leagues used the MLB ball, not in 2021) and that takes some adjustments. Not concerned.

Jason: If you’re the A’s do you keep Langeliers or Murphy behind the plate? Is Murphy worth more or less than the players they got back for Matt Olson?
Keith Law: I’d trade Murphy because of Langeliers – Murphy’s value is through the roof given the years remaining.

Phil: We know KeBryan Hayes defense is strong but seems his bat took a step back this year (maybe health related). Will he hit enough to be an above average 3rd baseman? Is his primary issue launch angle and too many ground balls?
Keith Law: The Pirates’ biggest problem in the last 5 or so years has been non-development of bats. They drafted and acquired a bunch of guys with high contact rates, but then haven’t converted all that contact into quality contact. Hayes is one. Newman is another. It was half of a plan. Now they have their work cut out for them, especially with Hayes who has so much upside if they can get him to hit the ball harder (and why doesn’t he? He’s not small, or weak).

Phil: Any concerns with Riley Greene, seems like   he should’ve had more hrs over that many abs? Are you expecting a much better year in year 2?
Keith Law: He’s so young, I’m not worried either.

James: Would you go to a Savannah Bananas game ?
Keith Law: I don’t go to baseball games unless it’s for work. I don’t know a lot of people who go to the office just for fun. I like what I do, but separating work and non-work is important to me.

Chris: Is Joey Wiemer going to develop into anything?
Keith Law: He could, but there’s a lot of risk in the bat given his swing and miss.

comish4lif: Regarding AAA pitchers like Nelson and Jamison for example – those guys don’t just get to go after every hitter. Right?
They frequently have a plan, something to work on, for example, 1st pitch curve to everyone, all fastballs this inning, etc.
Keith Law: That’s less typical for AAA pitchers than low-A or complex league guys. At AAA they should be calling their own games to prepare them for the next level.

Guest: Is there any hope for the Reds in the next 2-3 years? Nice group of rookie SPs if they can stay healthy but hard to have a lot of confidence they’re going to be able to put a true contender together.
Keith Law: Yes, and the system is very strong. Not next year but maybe 2024-25 they’ll be a sleeper.

Mo: How would you upgrade the Cardinals’ offense this off-season without blocking Walker (RF), Gorman (2B?), Herrera (C), and Winn (SS)?
Keith Law: DH and LF seem like good spots (we’ll see about nootbaar, who was good in a short sample).

Greasy Nick: Curious if you’ve read The Sympathizer?
Keith Law: Yes, I’ve read all the Pulitzer winners. Here’s my post on it: http://klaw.me/1ZoZR5T

Matt: Hey Dave, what sex is XXY?
Keith Law: There are a number of conditions that lead to DSDs (differences in sex development) where a person’s genotype and the development of their internal or external sex organs do not match. 5-alpha-reductase deficiency is one. Congenital adrenal hyperplasia is another. Swyer Syndrome is a third. The sex binary is a myth.

Mike: Between Carroll, Lawlar, and PCA, is it fair to be a little less concerned about shoulder injuries to hitters going forward? Those are just three that come to my mind but I feel like there have been more success stories of late with respect to shoulder surgeries
Keith Law: I don’t think we’ve overreacted to those for hitters, but I still think they’re a big concern for pitchers.

Greasy Nick: Do you think Matt Mervis is legit, or is he a textbook AAAA prospect?
Keith Law: He’s another older guy who hit well against younger competition this year, like Vaun Brown, Niko Kavadas, etc. I’ll just say the vast majority of those guys do not pan out. Occasionally one does (Jeff McNeil is the best example of the last decade) but if you’re betting on them as a group, the odds are overwhelmingly against them.

Mike: SSS but Kelenic did look better in his last stint and was whiffing less. Cautious optimism?
Keith Law: Too much value to give on him.

George: Which chapter are you:  part of the Philadelphia chapter, or one of the misfit toys in a nebulous “National” chapter?
Keith Law: Philly.

James: Do you prefer hot or iced coffee ?? Dependent on season ?
Keith Law: Hot. Never got into iced coffee. Ice numbs the taste buds, so you end up tasting the notes in coffee much less when it’s cold. That’s the same reason ice cream has so much sugar in it – you need more to counteract the effects of the temperature.

Guy B: What should the Red Sox do with Devers?
Keith Law: Pay the man.

James: Favorite AFL stadium ??
Keith Law: Salt River is the best but I have a soft spot for the old-time charm of Scottsdale.

James: Do you like coffee ice cream ?
Keith Law: Yes if it’s dark and tastes like coffee and not like a fucking single-shot venti latte.

Thomas: If Barry Bonds weren’t a black man with a generally … prickly disposition, would his status as the record holder be viewed differently?  If it had been Mark McGwire or Kirby Puckett who had hit 73, would there be so much debate over the legitimacy?
Keith Law: It’s just a gut feeling, but I agree with your take – Bonds is an Angry Black Man and the white gatekeepers don’t like that.

Scott of Lincolnshire: On the shift: could you start seeing infielders more in motion pre-pitch?  Like if Schwarber is up, have your SS running towards 2nd base right when pitch is thrown?
Keith Law: I suggested this on the podcast yesterday – it could be weirdly entertaining, like having the one man in motion on offense in the NFL.

Dave: Hi Klaw. Just wondering if you’ve seen or heard about Red Sox prospects Miguel Bleis and Ceddanne Rafaela? Are they guys or GUYS?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen Bleis but saw and wrote about Rafaela multiple times this summer.

Tom2: I see where Roger Maris Jr wants separate HR categories for his dad and Judage and for Bonds, McGwire et al. But I don’t remember seeing him explain how his dad hit 16, 39, then 61 HRs in 3 season. You know, if we’re sure everything was on the up and up back then.
Keith Law: https://www.theonion.com/roger-maris-jr-sets-single-season-record-for-…

A Salty Scientist: I love your yearly column on ‘misses.’ When thinking about these for evaluating your own biases in evaluation, how do you try to determine whether someone hit on their 99th percentile outcome versus a more systematic issue where you had their 50th percentile (and whole distribution) pegged incorrectly?
Keith Law: McNeil is a good example of someone where I didn’t change anything. He’s a 99th percentile guy, with an unusual skill set too. Whereas Bieber is someone who did change my process, as did Goldschmidt, guys who found different paths to success from what I anticipated or considered likely, and thus required me to open my mind more and see those new growth patterns or possibilities.

Heather: Speaking of Kirby Puckett, should he be in the HOF?
Keith Law: I thought he was a borderline case as a player, but I do not believe we should start removing players once enshrined. I wouldn’t have voted for him at the time, though.

Appa Yip Yip: I find it hard to believe, given that we know coaches in the minors were recommending sticky stuff to pitchers in the minors, that there weren’t coaches in the 90s taking guys aside and being like, listen you gotta add some muscle. Developing players is how minor league coaches get promotions. Blaming individuals for systemic issues is a pretty classic play though.
Keith Law: Or coaches in the 60s and 70s saying, hey, these little green pills will give you a little more focus. To say nothing of the 100-plus MLB players with therapeutic use exemptions for ADHD medications that are built around amphetamines. They improve attention, reduce reaction times, and speed executive functioning. Hank Aaron even admitting using them at least once.

Steve: one thing overlooked in all the single-season HR records talk is that almost all of them came in expansion years or within a couple of years of expansion, which is why Judge’s feat this year is all the more impressive and should be held in that regard rather than some mythical “clean” record
Keith Law: Correct – I pointed that out on one of the podcasts yesterday. We don’t have asterisks for expansion years even though we have very strong evidence that those years (and the temporary talent dilution they create) lead to move outlier performances. Maris hit 61 in the Angels/Senators 2 expansion year. McGwire & Sosa had their chase in the Dbacks/Rays expansion year. Even the Marlins/Rockies expansion year led to a huge spike in leaguewide offense.

Kevin: Could Elly De La Cruz or Jackson Chourio turn into Julio/Wander type of prospects?
Keith Law: I think they already are. Chourio is more like Wander, Elly more like Julio (who has tightened his approach a lot since A-ball, which Elly needs to do).

James: You admit you are not a football/NFL fan.  (Or at least that used to be the case).   Is the trolling of Carson Wentz a bit of sorts, or do you dislike him for some reason?
Keith Law: My wife is a huge Eagles fan, and I saw more than enough of Carson Wentz to be glad to see the team move on from him.
Keith Law: Hurts is a blast to watch.

Freddie: What’s the ceiling for Vaughn Grissom?
Keith Law: Above-average regular, borderline star.

Tony: Where do the White Sox even go from here? Bloated payroll, underperforming players, weak FA class, bad farm so little trade ammo… what a mess!
Keith Law: I think you lean into this core at least one more year and try to contend again in a winnable division in 2023.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week – thank you all so much for the questions & for reading. I’ll head to the AFL later this month and will file a few scouting notebooks from out there, after which I’ll get to free agent rankings. Stay safe!

Keith Law: Come let the truth be shared. Klawchat.

Jackie: Paul Goldschmidt, the best player in Delaware’s history.  Future HOFer?
Keith Law: Yes. He could limp through the next few years and still make it. He’s going to clear 65 WAR with no trouble and could end up near 80 – that’s a no-doubter for me.

Kingpin: Nats IF Luis Garcia has 5 BB & 63 K in just under 300 AB. He’s only 22 iirc, so there’s still time for improvement, but his approach gonna hold him back?
Keith Law: Yes. Never been a big believer in that bat – he can put the bat on the ball but without impact or patience. Aggressive promotions when he was just a teenager may not have helped him in the end.

S. Murphy: Hey, Keith. Love the chats. Assuming all three of Peraza, Volpe, and Sweeney make it in the next two years to the majors.  What’s the most logical outcome for all three regarding playing time with the Yankees? I’m guessing Peraza at short, Volpe 2nd, Sweeney third, with DJ at first?
Keith Law: Sweeney isn’t near those other guys – he didn’t produce anywhere near the way a D1 product should in high A. Volpe is a shortstop and the guy you build around.

David (Denver): Given the Rockies’ bizarre management, I guess it makes as much sense as anything else they do or don’t do, but why isn’t a team like this more active on the waiver wire?  They should be claiming anyone with a pulse to maybe get lucky and find some free talent.  They just seem so content with the same underperforming roster year after year, while insisting that it just hasn’t quite reached expectations.  So why the process breakdown?
Keith Law: I agree, but they have a different philosophy than I would have if I ran that org. I’d probably run it like a science lab and just be experimenting constantly while trying to rebuild. They seem almost conservative for their situation.

John: Is there anything more inherently un-American than caring about the Queen of England?
Keith Law: Eh. Is it un-American to care about the Pope? A major world figure, the longest-reigning monarch in human history – yeah, I know about Louis XIV, he was five years old when he became king, he wasn’t actually in charge of anything beyond his own bowel movements – dies, that’s pretty big news.

DD: Are you a proponent of “steel-manning” when debating controversial topics?  Meaning, do you actively attempt to fairly restate the counterparty’s viewpoint and supporting logic/rationale, even if you strongly or vehemently disagree?
Keith Law: I have never heard of this, but it’s quite interesting.

Braves Questions: Was the Brian Bridges firing a result of the Carter Stewart signing issue?  I always liked his draft classes and am a little surprised Atlanta has apparently moved away from scouting to using more models for amateur evals under Brown.
Keith Law: I highly, highly doubt that. The team walked away from Stewart over his post-draft medical. You can’t blame that on the scouting director. And I agree, Bridges’s drafts look very successful in hindsight.

Sedona: Do you think Kerry Carpenter becomes an above avg MLB OF?
Keith Law: I do not.

JJ: Thoughts on Chaim Bloom?  The fanbase/media in Boston is just about ready to kick him to the curb.  Is he qualified to be the GM for the Red Sox?  It seems to me that a management position in Tampa Bay is a completely different animal than that job title with a team with twice the payroll, like the Red Sox or Yankees.
Keith Law: LOL. Yes, he’s qualified. I really don’t give a rat’s ass what the fanbase thinks and neither should anyone in that organization. I have vague memories of fans and media arguing that the Sox were wrong to move John Valentin to third base for an unproven rookie back in 1997.

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Odds that Oscar Colas is the Sox starting RF next season on Opening Day?
Keith Law: They could always go outside the org, but he’s probably on their roster for a good chunk of next year in some role.

Sedona: There are some older MILB players that are showing 4 or more tools and excelling upper levels in the minors.  Some of them have a solid track record:  Vaun Brown, Matt Gorski, Addison Barger, Matt Mervis, and many more.  Do you see any of these guys will become MLB Stars?  If not, any off the radar older prospects you think that will become stars?
Keith Law: Well, Brown did most of that in A-ball at 24. I’ve seen Gorski (extra OF at best) and Barger (chance for a regular, more likely platoon IF). Mervis is 1B only so I’m not sure what the 4 tools would be.

Henry: I totally agree with your assessment that MLB owners will contract minor league teams if unionization goes through. What can the player’s association do to realistically stop that unintended consequence?
Keith Law: That’s a better question for a labor lawyer.

Nick: Jasson Dominguez has played really well since his promotion to high-a. Is he a possible riser on your next top 100?
Keith Law: He was already on my last top 100, and he’ll be on it again.

Casey: Alec Burleson was called up yesterday…do you think he’ll hit enough to be at least an average regular even with the defensive liabilities?
Keith Law: I’m a bit skeptical on the bat. Had him as more of a mistake hitter/power over hit type. He to be more than that to be a regular with the defensive issues you mentioned.

Kingpin: Do you see Jordan Walker creating more loft in his swing without hurting his contact too much?
Keith Law: Does he need to?

romorr: There are a lot of paths available for DL Hall next year, relief, AAA to continue starting, battling it out in ST, which would you like to see with him?
Keith Law: Start him in triple A unless there’s some real evidence between now and OD that he’s going to throw more strikes. I’m fine with him continuing to develop in the majors, but not if he’s going to walk 4 guys every start.

Jason: What’s up with Kahlil Watson, and can he turn things around and get back to where he was in your offseason ranking (obviously he won’t be there next January/February)?
Keith Law: Only 19, still showing tools, nowhere near as advanced a hitter as scouts thought coming out of HS. He’s been better with contact lately and driving the ball more but without enough results on contact.

Brittney: Safe to say the Cardinals were the winners of the 2020 draft? Any chance we see Hence on your Top 100 this winter?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes.

John: Should Andrew painter start next year with the Phillies?
Keith Law: Absolutely not.

Jason: What’s your honest take on the brewers? Seems like their starting pitching regressed. Is their offense that bad?
Keith Law: The offense was always going to be an issue. Their rotation hasn’t been at full strength most of the year, though.

AW: Have you seen enough from Volpe that he could provide a jolt down the stretch this season or does he still need some refinement in AAA?
Keith Law: I would call him up. I think he’ll rise to the occasion.

Robbie: If Harris and Strider were eligible to be on your prospect list today, would they both be top 5?
Keith Law: They’ve both got a year in the majors. That’s just not an apples to apples comparison.

Jobu: Which app would you recommend for learning a language?  I think you were using one to learning Welsh or Italian.
Keith Law: I used Duolingo and completed the Welsh course in it, but they recently changed the app to a very narrow, prescribed approach that stops you from learning at your own pace. I’m hoping they revert, given the negative feedback online, but the CEO/founder made some deeply paternalistic comments that make me think he’s dug in his heels.

Jimmy P: I’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop on Elly ever since he joined High-A. A guy with his plate approach can’t sustain *this* in the majors, can he?
Keith Law: Maybe he can improve his approach? Really young and really talented.

Jeremy: Any thoughts on Tyler Soderstrom? He’s having a heck of a season with the bat but didn’t make your updated top prospects list – I know you’ve had an issue with his lack of a true position, is that what is keeping him off the list? Any other concerns?
Keith Law: That’s his #1 issue, yes.

Blaze Blaskovich: Ryne Nelson looked pretty nice – is that a fluke or does he have some mid rotation potential long term?
Keith Law: I’m in. Maybe an above-average starter.

Lark11: Have you heard any updates on Daniel Espino? Seems incredible that he’s going to miss the vast majority of the season with knee tendonitis and shoulder soreness. Any word on the severity of either? On when he’ll get back to throwing pitches in anger? Thanks!
Keith Law: I don’t think we see him till 2023.

romorr: Joey Ortiz has turned it around in a big way since July. And even his first week in AAA has impressed. Would you say his defense is better than Mateo this year? Shot to start out of ST?
Keith Law: Maybe not a better defender than Mateo but a much better overall player, and should be their OD shortstop next year.

jordan: in retrospect, should the white sox not have constructed their roster entirely with DHs and mediocre relief arms?
Keith Law: Perhaps not the ideal plan.

Guest: Keith is it true that rookie of the year has draft rewards and that’s why Dbacks and Orieloes may sit Carroll Gunner down the stretch some?
Keith Law: True, yes. Will they sit those guys? I don’t think either can lose eligibility even if they play every day.

Bill: Who would be a good fit for the Tigers’ GM position?
Keith Law: I’ve seen a bunch of good names and some extremely unimaginative ones. Josh Byrnes has been GM twice and succeeded in neither place. For him to get a third shot while qualified candidates, especially POC candidates, like Dana Brown, Jason McLeod, Billy Owens, Carlos Rodriguez, and others get passed over would be a giant fucking embarrassment for the Tigers and MLB.

Billiam: Endy Rodriguez any good?
Keith Law: Really good.

Josh: Strider or Harris for NL ROY?
Keith Law: I have an NL ROY ballot so I can’t answer.

romorr: Is Aberdeens park that bad for HR? Norby, and Cowser both put on a power display in Bowie. Norby especially has shown a little more than previously thought.
Keith Law: Other way around – Bowie is a very good HR park.

Lark11: Any thoughts on Reds shortstop Jose Barrero? It seemed like he things figured out at triple-A in 2021, then he fractures his hamate bone and now all he does is strikeout. Injury-related? Or, something less fixable? Thanks!
Keith Law: Hamate injuries can sap your wrist strength for a year. I’d wait and see.

Aaron C.: Tyler Soderstrom’s 2022 OBP is .319 between high A and AA. Why can’t us A’s fans have nice things?
Keith Law: If he were a catcher, it wouldn’t matter that much. But now, I don’t know what you have in him.

Adam: The Padres are currently still limping their way into the playoffs despite having Bob Melvin and a $200 mil roster. Can this be summed up with “baseball is hard” or is there an underlying cause to the struggles of AJ Preller’s rosters these last few years?
Keith Law: I mean, they have arguably the best player in the NL on their roster and he’s going to have 0 PA for them this year.

CVD: James Wood is a top ____ prospect going in to next season?
Keith Law: He was on my midseason top 50.

Lark11: Broad question, but what do you think of MLB’s recent trend of bringing all baseball-business in under the banner of MLB? I’m thinking of the minor leagues and of Topps. Is it good to acquire such business or better to have independent businesses growing your game for you? Also, is it a shady tactic to basically withhold licensing from Topps (who depends heavily on MLB cards) and then snatch it up for yourself? Or, is that standard business practice? Thanks!
Keith Law: Vertical integration is a mixed bag. In this case, MLB owning the minors might be better for player development, but worse for minor league fans, and maybe it’s just worse period if MLB owners persist in thinking of the minors as a cost center rather than an investment.
Keith Law: I have no idea about cards/licensing.

Pat: Thoughts on democrats’ strategy of helping extremist GOP candidates win their primaries?
Keith Law: It makes me nervous.

Alan: Last year you named Kyle Manzardo the sleeper of the Rays’ draft, which looks like a pretty good call. What do you expect from him — is a starting 1B/DH for a contender?
Keith Law: Starting 1B/DH for someone.

Paul: Hey Keith, I gotta ask you about Spencer Strider. He’s a very fun player to watch and interesting guy to root for. What do you make of his future? Does he need a 3rd pitch? Or is he just funky enough to where this current version of him can succeed for a while?
Keith Law: He gets LHB out right now, despite the lack of a third pitch. Every once in a very blue moon, you get a guy like this. I believe Bartolo Colon was this kind of pitcher when young – he could go through a lineup throwing mostly 4- and 2-seamers. But it’s rare, and one-year platoon splits are volatile enough that I’d like to see Strider do it over another season before buying into the argument that he can be an ace as a 2-pitch guy.

John: How does it effect your process when you see that two of the guys you were way low on (Goldy and Riley) are two of the better hitters in MLB?
Keith Law: Riley revamped his whole approach. Goldschmidt I just missed on, lacking enough looks and frankly overweighting input from scouts who, in hindsight, were disinclined to rate a player like him very highly. Two totally different cases – everything I said on Riley was accurate until he went out and addressed the clear holes in his approach, which is remarkable.

Jake: Does Trump get indicted before midterms, after, or not at all?
Keith Law: My guess, knowing basically nothing, is not at all.

Mike: Thoughts on the Guardians shortstop situation in the coming years? Rosario has been solid the past two years so is it worth keeping him or do you guy with Rocchio?
Keith Law: I think Rocchio’s a star. If Rosario doesn’t take a step forward with the bat next year, you just move him aside. He’s had a solid season but Rocchio will be better.

Michael: So the Cubs had a player debut the other day who did great. Looked him up and he’s a right wing nut. Is that just part of being a fan of a baseball team? On the one hand he’s a 20 something who’s probably not been exposed to alternative viewpoints. On the other hand yuck
Keith Law: For me, it would depend on his views. If he’s openly homophobic or transphobic or racist, I couldn’t root for him under any circumstances.

Jason: Re: John and the Queen of England, obviously the break in 1776 was a pretty big deal (and 1812, and supporting the Confederacy), but taking a broader view, we have a lot of shared history. We grew out of the British Empire, maintained their common-law legal system, have identified the “Special Relationship,” etc.
Keith Law: They have long been our greatest ally, and we have mostly been theirs.

Nick: Do you think Oswaldo Cabrera can hit enough at the mlb level to be a regular or is he more of a really good defensive utility player?
Keith Law: Utility guy.

Tim: Do you think Justin Steele could have a Jon Lester like career or is that asking too much?
Keith Law: I don’t see it. More like a fifth starter, of which the Cubs have a lot.

James: Will you be out at Arizona Fall League ? Hopefully rosters get announced any day
Keith Law: Yes, haven’t missed it since 2005.

Chris: Will Ceddanne Rafaela’s K rate keep him from becoming an MLB regular?
Keith Law: His K rate is fine. 20% or so.

Jon: How did teaching at Lincoln go? Are you going to do that again?
Keith Law: One of the hardest things I’ve ever done in my life. They invited me back but it was so much work and I needed to dedicate time to some other things, so I said no.

canada: Joey Meneses– real deal everyday player for the next few years, or just a flukey feelgood story that the Nats fans sorely need?
Keith Law: Flukey feel-good story.

Aaron: Last year you put Austin Riley’s WAR O/U at 5.5 and he currently sits at 5.4 on Fangraphs…

Has your projection of Spencer Strider at all changed based on what you’ve seen? I know it’s still a small sample but…..mighty impressive stuff so far.
Keith Law: Yes, for sure. The fastball is elite.

Heather: Huge difference between the Queen of England and the Bishop of Rome, as far as eighty million Americans are concerned.
Keith Law: We are not a Catholic nation. We were founded as a secular one.

PJ: Any thoughts on Wesneski’s debut for the Cubs?  I know it was against the Reds, but I’ve never seen a crowd as electric as that for two bottom-rung teams as they were watching Wesneski dominate that lineup
Keith Law: I think he’s sneaky good. Maybe just a reliever in the end but I’d start him first.

Guest: Thoughts on David Calabrese? You had him ranked fairly high in advance of the 2020 draft but then covid seemingly has impacted his development not unlike a lot of prospects from that draft.  He seems to be improving as of late.
Keith Law: He also got with a private hitting coach in the last year or so who screwed him up, but reverted back to his old swing in mid-July and you can see the results now. Probably shaking off a lot of rust too, since he’s Canadian and was stuck home during the pandemic.

Jeffrey: Why is Rougned Odor occupying a starting spot?  Anything besides “veteran presents”?
Keith Law: I have absolutely no idea.

David: Keith, re: Bloom. I think the biggest issue the fanbase has is that Bloom is the face of an organization that seems to be low-balling Devers, and after trading away Betts, losing Devers would cause a huge disconnect with fans. Think that’s a realistic possibility?
Keith Law: Yeah, but that’s not Bloom’s call, is it? That sounds entirely like ownership.

James: Who have you heard looks the best of all the new drafted guys so far in milb ? Small-ish sample
Keith Law: Very small sample and a lot of 21-year-olds mashing in low A, which they should do out of D1 schools.

Kevin: I think stealing classified nuclear documents and probably selling them off to Russia and saudi Arabia is more unamerican than caring about the queen.
Keith Law: As is defending the guy who did it.

Codey: do you think a team like az will trade some of these young outfielders? Carrol, Thomas, Varsho, McCarthy, Garrett seems like a lot
Keith Law: Carroll is a star and the guy you build around. Garrett is a great story but he’s the most expendable of the group. Thomas might be the best guy to trade because he could play CF for someone, just not for Arizona.

Tom: Any concern over Kiebert Ruiz’s meh offensive season?
Keith Law: No, and also I see a huge contact rate that I believe will turn into much more production next year.

Harris: How do you feel
Keith Law: to treat you like I do?

Codey: Has Brandon Pfafft of Dbacks farm raised his stock in your eyes?
Keith Law: No, he was already on my top 100 last winter.

Harris: How do you feel about the Harris extension?  I think it broke while you were on vacation.
Keith Law: Likely to pay off for the team, great for the player, more risk for the team than I think the general reaction would indicate.

Guest: Any notable 2022 draft debuts yet? Spencer Jones is performing really well in Tampa but he should be dominating in Low-A right?
Keith Law: Exactly. Rushing too. Props to Baltimore for pushing Dylan Beavers to high A, even just for two weeks.

Tim: Besides an injury is there anyway Andrew Painter’s not a top half of the rotation guy?
Keith Law: Sure, but I would not take that bet. I think he’s at least an above-average starter.

Aaron C.: The Oakland A’s have the worst OBP in MLB and have sacrifice bunted the third most times. Is intentionally giving up outs (on top of all the outs you’re ALREADY making) the new market inefficiency?
Keith Law: Imagine if I’d told you in 2004 that the 2022 A’s would be third in the AL in sac bunts. You would have asked me if Billy Beane was dead.

Jesse: Should Mets have known sproat wouldn’t sign? What exactly is going on there with him?
Keith Law: Why would they have known? My understanding is that the number he asked for after the draft differed from what he asked for before the draft. I have heard that he did something similar with Texas in 2019. At some point, you have to just accept that this is how the industry values you.

Robbie: This time next year – who will be the #1 prospect in baseball
Keith Law: Right now I’d guess Chourio.

Leites: Hi Keith!  Who would you rather have at this point – Bo Naylor or Ivan Herrera?  Which do you think has a better shot at becoming an average or above average MLB hitter?
Keith Law: I was a big Naylor guy in the draft, just sort of threw my hands up with his miserable 2021. Couldn’t be happier to see him develop into the player I thought he’d be. Athletic, quick-twitch, with feel to hit and more power at his age than I anticipated.

Jake: Any thoughts on Nick Yorke? Can you chalk this year up to injuries or are there deeper issues from what you’ve seen/heard?
Keith Law: Not giving up on him but he does highlight the risk of players whose value is entirely in their hit tool. He’s looked more like a regular this year than an above-average or better one.

Nick: Is Spencer Jones a top 100 candidate? He’s had a pretty hot start to his career and apparently the exit velo number are off the charts.
Keith Law: My top 100 is most definitely not a ranking of exit velos.

Tre: If you were running the Orioles, who would you target this offseason?
Keith Law: Every starting pitcher with a pulse.

Dave: Have you read anything else by Emily St. John Mandel besides Station Eleven?  I have The Glass Hotel and Sea of Tranquility on my shelf; was curious if you’d cracked either open.
Keith Law: Glass Hotel is beautifully written but Mandel didn’t stick the landing.

ZIrinsky: Would you sign Judge to a long-term (8+ years) contract or reallocate that money under the assumption that he’s probably already played his best baseball?
Keith Law: Unfortunately, the latter. His age, body, injury history point to an 8-year deal ending very poorly. Love the player, would try to go for a market-topping 4-5 year deal.

Codey: Do you believe the DBacks trade Gallen this off season? Also the cardinals trading him in the Ozuna trade feels like one of most lopsided in years yeah?
Keith Law: Yikes, I wouldn’t counsel that – he’s your ace next year, Kelly and Nelson behind him, hopefully Pfaadt gets there, try to get to 85 wins.

Leites: Who do think is a better bet at this point to develop a workable hit tool – Josh Lowe or Jarred Kelenic?
Keith Law: Not giving up on either player, although I wonder if Kelenic is just way too hard on himself, and might be better off in another place where he’s not dealing with the same expectations. I rarely say that about players but he looks like a different guy in the majors.

Tommy: What is Garrett Whitlock, long term?  A starter?  A closer?  A multi-inning reliever?  I suppose it’s OK that I’m not sure what he is, but I get the feeling the Red Sox aren’t sure, either.
Keith Law: Multi-inning reliever works for me. Don’t think he’s a starter.

Adam: If Busch stadium is not selling a confection called the Noot Bar, I will be severely disappointed.
Keith Law: It’s just Noot very good!

Zach: I recall you weren’t too high on Nick Lodolo when he came up, but he’s had an impressive rookie season despite another dumpster fire of a year from the Reds. Any change in his outlook from your perspective? Thanks.
Keith Law: He hasn’t, though – he’s been on the IL yet again, and has a huge platoon split, as predicted.

James: Have you heard anything about GCU shortstop Jacob Wilson for the 2023 draft ?
Keith Law: Saw him and wrote a little about him in March. Potential first-rounder, more like a clear day-one guy.

JL: I can’t recall if you’ve stated here or elsewhere before your stance on some of the new CBA items. But what is your stance on the shift being banned and pitch clocks?I vaguely remember  Would you consider a piece before next year on the various new rules?
Keith Law: Don’t like banning the shift. That’s just stupid. The pitch clocks in the minors have been a huge help for game times, though.

Sean: With Griffin McGarry at LHV as reliever do you forsee him being the first to see Philly out him Painter and Abel with Painter having the largest upside?
Keith Law: Yes. Even money they call McGarry up as a reliever this month.

addoeh: What would your entrance song from the bullpen be?  Think I’d go with Pink Floyd’s One of These Days.
Keith Law: Butthole Surfers’ “Who Was in My Room Last Night?” Tell me that guitar riff wouldn’t get the crowd going.

James: Keith what ever happened with Scott Kingery ?? He looked promising as a prospect and I know you liked him – just get a bag of money and stop caring ?
Keith Law: Jeez, that’s an uncharitable assumption. They messed with his swing. He’s never recovered from it.

Jason: Can Matt Brash be an effective starter?
Keith Law: I don’t believe so.

Tom: What do you think Pfaadt’s ceiling is? He’s been mowing ’em down in Reno
Keith Law: More like a solid-average starter, less ceiling than Nelson/Jameson but very predictable.

Chris: I always struggle looking at players with big AA/AAA stats who never show up on prospect lists. What are typically the flaws in those players that you notice? Example- Andres Chaparro. 23 with a 922 OPS at AA. Not on NYY top 30. Is he a non-prospect?
Keith Law: He’s not a prospect. I’ve seen him a bunch. Bad body guy and power over hit. OPS isn’t a great stat for evaluating players but especially not prospects.

addoeh: Nico Hoerner.  About what you expected at SS or a bit better?
Keith Law: Much better defensively than I expected. Will be curious to see if that holds up.

Lark11: If you were starting a baseball team and had the power to pick the position at which your best/star/leader player would play, what position would you pick? Starting pitcher? Catcher? Shortstop? Somewhere else?
Keith Law: Shortstop.

JC: What is going on with Kyren Paris and his recent ’76 Joe Morgan impersonation? Is he just on a SSS lucky streak or has he tapped into something?
Keith Law: Bit of both. Very young when drafted, like Calabrese. Needed to gain a lot of strength.

romorr: Kyle Bradish has shown flashes this year, but has he shown enough to start in the rotation next year? I’ll throw Kremer in there as well as a bit of a question mark.
Keith Law: Kremer can start, Bradish is a reliever for me with that delivery.

Mike: Do you think KeBryan Hayes can revamp his swing?  Seems to hit the ball hard when he makes contact, but mostly on the ground.
Keith Law: I think he could, and he’d be a 20-25 homer guy if he did.

JL: Pardon the ignorant question, but could you explain why a changeup is more affective to a batter of opposite handedness?
Keith Law: If you’re a RHP, your breaking pitches will break in to lefties, and thus right into their bat paths. If you leave those pitches up at all, even if they’d be good strikes against RHB, lefties can and should hit them. Without a change/split, opposing-side batters just have to decide “fastball or breaking ball,” and if they get that right, they have a great chance to make contact.
Keith Law: I’m a strong advocate of the splitter for any pitcher who can’t figure out a good CH, which can be an issue for guys who throw everything hard.

stixx23: There’s another Yankees single-season record in jeopardy this year. Cole is only 30K behind Guidry’s 248 in 1978. Do you find this list as strange as I did? Eight different pitchers (it was nine before last night) on the list as opposed to one dominating.
Keith Law: That Guidry year was something else, too. I wish I remembered it – I was five, probably saw a bunch of his starts but at that age would have had no real concept.

stixx23: Sorry, didn’t know return key would send message. Here’s the Yankees top 10 K in a season list:
1.Ron Guidry•1978 248
2.Gerrit Cole•2021 243
3.Jack Chesbro•1904 239
4.CC Sabathia•2011 230
Luis Severino•2017 230
6.David Cone•1997 222
7.Luis Severino•2018 220
8.Gerrit Cole•2022 218
Melido Perez•1992 218
10.Al Downing•1964 217
Keith Law: MELIDO PEREZ?

Ben: If Judge passes 61 dingers, do you consider him the “rightful” single season HR leader?
Keith Law: No, because I live in the real world.

Harrisburg Hal: when playing a new game, do you start with written instructions or online videos?
Keith Law: Depends on the game & its complexity level. Online videos can be great.

Punk in Drublic: Little off topic but do you have a link to a page where you have recommendations for different kitchen items (cutlery, sous vide, cast iron pan, etc). Just bought a home and need to outfit my 1st decent kitchen.
Keith Law: Yep, last time I updated it was 2019 but it all still holds: https://klaw.me/2DB4rf5

Jason S: A lot of teams are going to regret drafting Cam Collier, agree?
Keith Law: Not drafting him – yes, I think they are going to regret it.

Nick: So no? I mean exit velo is  predictive of success at the major league level. Teams use it in the minors for a reason. Seems pompous to dismiss it.
Keith Law: In isolation, it doesn’t tell us a whole lot, no, and that is all you offered. I mean, ONeil Cruz hits the ball as hard as anyone, ever, and he’s struggling at the moment. As for “teams use it in the minors,” they track it, but they do not “use it” as the sole measure of a player.

Ken: Why is there still a Royal family in 2022?
Keith Law: Cause tourists are money.

JT: Corbin Carroll’s swing (shut off stance) and body type (midget/anorexic) look exactly like Mike Fontenot’s. How can be possibly be a #1 overall prospect
Keith Law: I debated not posting this, but I wanted to tell you how incredibly offensive your language is. Grow up.

Walt: Way early to think about the 2023 Draft I’m sure, but do you have any early thoughts on the chances Chase Dollander going 1-1?
Keith Law: I’ll take the field right now.
Keith Law: There is no clear 1-1 candidate for next year, not right now.

Lark11: Regarding Elly De La Cruz, how exactly do you go about developing a “plate approach” when the player has such absurd tools? Do you keep advancing him until he *has* to get a better approach to succeed? Do you instruct him to take until he gets to a certain count? Do you teach him how to look for certain pitchers in certain counts? How do you develop/improve a plate approach with a sublimely gifted athlete?
Keith Law: Yes – you push him. He’s going to outathlete his level for a while. Make him struggle and hope he’s up to the challenge, mentally and intellectually.

James: Did you see Bill Simmons had your book Smart Baseball on his shelf behind him in recent tik tok ?
Keith Law: I didn’t but that’s great to hear.

Bo: Will KC ever move on from Sal Perez, and give the Catching job to MJ Melendez
Keith Law: They need to, yes.

Nick: I didn’t say exit velo would be the only reason. I said is he in consideration for the top 100 considering he’s off to a hot start and the exit velo has been good. As a first round pick I thought it was a legitimate question. Most top prospects coming up now have elite exit velo numbers.
Keith Law: He shouldn’t have been a first round pick, and you’re affirming the consequent here: Most top prospects coming up have elite exit velo numbers, but that doesn’t mean that most players with elite exit velo numbers are top prospects.
Keith Law: Jones has big power. He’s 6’7″ with a below-average approach and the history of position players his size is not good at all.

James: Do you still play Catan ?
Keith Law: Almost never. Too long, requires 3 players minimum, lots of other games I prefer.

JR: Does an author’s public views ever sour your perception of their body of work, and make you refuse to read their future work, even if it’s enjoyable? I’m currently reading the new Cormoran Strike book because I’m a fan of the series, but feel a little guilty about it.
Keith Law: Yes, in some cases. I would have a hard time reading her new work, at least.

Guest: Carson Whisenhunt looks like an absolute steal for the Giants. Do you think we could see him in SF in 2023?
Keith Law: 2024 is much more likely. I agree that pick was great value.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks for joining me and for your patience while I was on vacation etc. during August. Scouting blog & several new columns coming soon! Stay safe and go get that booster.

I’ve got a new mock draft up for subscribers to the Athletic, a ranking of the top 100 prospects in the draft class with scouting reports on each, and another file with scouting reports on 30+ additional players in this draft. I’ll post a final mock on Saturday morning, a Futures Game recap that night, and then draft analysis starting Sunday night.

Keith Law: And other times I feel like I should go. Klawchat.

Carl: Do you think more teams will do deals like the Braves just made with the Royals to get a high draft pick?
Keith Law: Most teams value the picks more highly than KC seems to have valued this one. I think there are more buyers than sellers, so to speak. That also tells me that MLB needs to wake up and make all picks tradeable – even this minor trade got quite a bit of attention.

Josh Smith: What should do the Mets do with Francisco Alvarez considering their lack of production at catcher and DH? What is the ETA for him?
Keith Law: I don’t know about his defense being ready for the majors … my take from seeing him a good bit last year and talking to scouts this year is that it’s probably not, and that’s before you consider who he might be catching for the Mets. But the bat would be valuable right now if you could live with him developing on defense.

Deke: I got a promoted ad on Facebook today that said if you took Tylenol multiple times during pregnancy and your child has autism, you may be entitled to compensation. Sooooo, new nonsense conspiracy theory just dropped.
Keith Law: Facebook’s “efforts” to fight disinformation are just laughable. We need to accept they don’t care and deal with them accordingly.
Keith Law: (I just finished reading Dan Pfeiffer’s Battling the Big Lie, and he makes some rather pointed arguments about Facebook being worse than pretty much any other site for this.)

TomBruno23: I have asked about Christian Little before because he is a local kid and I follow his career…put up a 6.94 ERA in 11 2/3 with Cotuit and is transferring to LSU under Wes Johnson. What is a reasonable expectation for him 2023 and going forward?
Keith Law: Yep, for folks who don’t know, Little matriculated early at Vanderbilt, even though he might have been a first-round pick out of HS. By forgoing the draft, he gave up a shot at probably $2-3 million and the benefit of professional coaching. He hasn’t been anywhere near expectations since going to school. Maybe the new program turns it around, but it’s not like Vandy is some slouch at developing pitching, either. I don’t rank guys a year out for the draft but if he were in this year’s class he wouldn’t be on my top 100.

John: What is your overall assessment of Elly De LA Cruz? Considering it’s likely his biggest shortcoming, how much improvement would you like to see with his plate discipline to where it wouldn’t be a major concern?
Keith Law: He’s a top 10 prospect in baseball right now. Probably the best pure athlete in the minors. Has risk, for sure, but the upside is absurd.

Deke: The winner of the 2024 presidential election is…
Keith Law: TBD.

John: If you could use the information you now know, and go back and re-rank your pre-season top 10, how different would it look?
Keith Law: Pro prospects? I don’t think there’s a huge difference in the order of a top 10 – people get way too caught up in specific rankings, and don’t spend enough time reading what I write about each player. The only one I don’t feel great about now is Torkelson. I should have listened to my instincts more there and had him lower, out of the top 10.

MJ: Thoughts on Max Castillo? Has he shown enough to make you think he can be at least a 4/5 starter type?
Keith Law: No chance. Below average fastball and bad delivery for a starter.

Dave: Is the answer to the question who will be the first one to the majors from this years draft anyone other than Kumar Rocker or he is a certainty to be the first one.  Does he make it this year?
Keith Law: I think so – the team that takes him will likely be the one that views him as a potential reliever for September.

Paul: Any reason to think the same thing could happen to Rocker again this year after a team looks at his medical records? I’m still wondering what could have been so bad that the Mets didn’t want anything to do with him. (I’d assume even if it were something required TJ surgery they’d still have signed him.)
Keith Law: I agree that if it were just TJ they would have worked it out – they took JT Ginn after TJ and paid him. Rocker also had a minor shoulder operation last fall, so that’s also an indicator that it wasn’t just some minor elbow thing. But I think someone will bite this time around because everyone has more information than they did last year.

Mason: The A’s have gambled on high risk, high reward talents in recent years (Beck, Murray) b/c they can’t afford top end talents in the open market. By that logic, would Prielipp at #19 make sense? Thanks, Keith.
Keith Law: Haven’t heard them with him at all, but yes, your logic is sound. They almost always do it with hitters, rather than pitchers. Puk is the last pitcher they took in the first round at all.

Chris: What are your thoughts on Julio Rodriguez?  It looks like he’s going to be a super star, but maybe some of this is unsustainable.
Keith Law: Superstar. Stays in CF, which I did not believe would be the case out of last season. He’s gotten faster, which is very unusual, and done great work to avoid becoming too big, something I did worry about with his frame.

Ben: If Dylan Crews were in this draft, around what pick would he go?
Keith Law: The corner bats are mostly in the 10-25 range. He’d be near the top of that.

JT: Is it fair for me to think of the Montoyo firing as “you can’t fire the players”? I know my fellow Blue Jays fans had some quibbles with his in-game management style, but by all accounts, he seemed very well respected and capable.
Keith Law: I thought Kaitlyn McGrath’s piece was very good, but also made the team’s reasons for firing Montoyo seem pretty shallow. Maybe something else will become public eventually but my take was yours – this was a “we can’t fire the players” firing.

Bucco Brad: As a pirates fan when should I expect this team to compete for a playoff berth again?
Keith Law: I think you’re 3+ years from that.

Nate: Keith, what are your thoughts on Dodgers SP prospect Gavin Stone. He recently catapulted to mid 50s on BAs updated top 100. Just curious if he pops up as much for you. thanks!
Keith Law: He’s a great story – signed under slot from Central Arkansas in the pandemic year – and definitely a prospect but there’s too much reliever risk to have him in the middle of a top 100.

Mike: How do you explain the success of the M’s and O’s? Legit or SSS?
Keith Law: Winning streaks are nothing but SSS. They have no predictive value.

Kyle: Sam Horn going to Mizzou?
Keith Law: I assume so. I wrote about him in the extra capsules page linked up top. He’s already in Columbia for football stuff.

Miguel: Are you as high on Gunnar Henderson as others seem to be?
Keith Law: I don’t know what that means exactly. I think he’s a top 15 prospect in baseball if you view him as a 3b, where he’s a ++ glove.

Stephen: As a Royals fan I’m pretty embarrassed today. How do you think the org is viewed by the rest of the league after this? I know the news  is less than 24 hours old, but curious if you’ve heard anything.
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything, but I don’t understand people blaming the org for the idiocy of the players.

Drewy: Bo Naylor appears to have figured it out. Is he back on your radar, having fallen off your top 100 list in recent editions?
Keith Law: Yes.

Booby M: Who do you see the Yankees connected with at pick 25?
Keith Law: See my mock draft linked up top.

Appa Yip Yip: What’s your opinion on Spencer Horwitz? MLB bat, or fringey reliever trade bait?
Keith Law: The latter. Can’t hit LHP, not enough thump for a no-position platoon guy.

Brett: Last year we had some surprises in the top 10, do you see that happening again? And who could potentially sneak in the top 10 that’s not being mocked there?
Keith Law: Yes. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Justin Crawford, Brandon Barriera, or Dylan Lesko end up in the top 10 with under-slot deals.

Zac: What is Cam Collier’s floor in the draft? On the athletic you wrote his ceiling but I didn’t see what his floor would be?
Keith Law: I don’t put floors for every player – I have to hear that such-and-such a team would not pass on a player. In the unlikely event he gets to 11, I believe the Mets would just take him.

Slurpie: I thought Johan Rojas’ promotion was too aggressive considering his performance, but all the numbers seem to be really good so far at the new level. Do you think he’s back on a good trajectory?
Keith Law: Rojas’ batted ball data was better than his results in high A, but also this is a really small sample size and Reading (AA) is the best hitters’ park in the Eastern League.

Moe Mentum: Do you have a favorite college stadium to scout players? How about a favorite college town on your scouting list?
Keith Law: Nashville and Louisville, if you’re considering cities. If you’re talking actual college towns, I love Charlottesville and Athens.

Darren: Should I stop kidding myself that Will Benson has figured something out and may still have a chance to be a MLB option?
Keith Law: It might just be the switch to a different baseball in AAA. A lot of hitters seem to have “figured something out” by moving to triple A this year and I don’t know how we could easily tell which is which.

Moe Mentum: Have you explored/read any of the winners (or finalists) of the Thurber Prize for American Humor? Would any have been worthy of study in your favorite undergraduate course “Comedy and the Novel” (though the Prize wasn’t established until after you graduated)?
Keith Law: That’s all nonfiction, I believe. That class I always talk about was just fiction.

Jon: Quinn Priester’s curveball looked pretty damn pretty in his last outing. Slower start to him for the season, but does he still have #2/3 starter upside?
Keith Law: Yes, he had an oblique strain, I believe, nothing that would change his upside.

Guest: What are your thoughts on Trey Faltine? I assume he’s expected to be drafted and sign this year but is his bat going to be good enough in pro ball?
Keith Law: He struck out 104 times this spring. I don’t think I’d even draft him this year, not as a junior who I presume would want to be paid enough to get him to forgo his senior year.

Joshua: You’ve stated the Nats don’t really keep their draft intentions too hidden, and you have them taking Kevin Parada. To the best of your knowledge is there a realistic player they would take over him or who they would take if Parada is off the board? Thanks.
Keith Law: Elijah Green isn’t out of the question but right now I think he goes ahead of them.

Alex: Does the ability to get paid for NIL have any impact on mid to late round Juniors from signing and instead going back to school?
Keith Law: Don’t know of that specifically but there’s a rumor Paxton Kling pulled his name out of the draft to go to LSU in part because he has some NIL money lined up. Good for him, if so.

Mark: Best board game you’ve played in the past 6 months?
Keith Law: Three Sisters.
Keith Law: New game, i assume you mean.

Michael: When do we get to see your midseason top-50? One of the things I look forward to most every year – thanks for all your work!
Keith Law: After the draft, so I can include those guys.

David: Who are some HS players you could see making it to the Cubs at pick 47, that would be solid value?
Keith Law: No idea, sorry. That’s way too far down the draft for a prediction, and I don’t want to just give you a WAG.

Tom: i’m excited to see your thoughts on Dustin Saenz and Jeremy de la rosa now that they’re in wilmington
Keith Law: Trust me, I’m excited they’re here. The Blue Rocks lineup was … not an area of strength.

John B: Thank you for all the great info.  I wanted to make sure I am clear on something you said on a recent Nats podcast.  Paraphrasing here, but you made it sound like if Jones, Holliday, and Parada are gone that they would take a college player with a lower ceiling.  I am curious who to look for in that situation.  Neto?  Cross?  Jung?  Also would not signing the pick and getting #6 in 23 be worth considering?  Thanks.
Keith Law: I don’t recall saying that. Also, not signing the pick is never worth considering. People suggest it every year and it is always a terrible idea. It’s a full year of wasted value. If it happens organically, like the Mets/Rocker, fine, but you never do this by choice. Unless you want the next scouting director to get the extra pick!

Aaron: What are some reasonable expectations for Zach Neto and Brooks Lee? Worried the Cubs are again going hit tool + makeup over upside
Keith Law: Regular at shortstop and above-average regular at 2b or 3b, respectively. Full scouting reports available in the top 100 link at the top of the chat.

T: Where would you rank Kevin Parada if at the end of the day if his arm is not good enough to be a 1st division catcher? Or better said, Kevin Parada’s bat at 1B/DH?
Keith Law: Arm isn’t going to keep anyone from being a catcher any more. There isn’t enough baserunning for that. And I don’t think Parada has to move off C for his glove.

Chad: They don’t have the #1 pick to have the huge bonus $ this year, but do you think the Bucs will try to use the draft this weekend in similar ways to last year? Would Termarr Johnson be a guy that might take a cut to help out going over slot with the next couple picks?
Keith Law: I don’t know bonus expectations for Termarr (or most players, really). The Pirates do have an extra pick at 36, though, and could get creative with that – going under slot at 4 to go over for some HS player who gets to the later pick. My guess is several teams go after that type of player in the 31-39 range.

David: Hi Keith, Thanks for all the great draft work. I’ve been impressed with Oneil Cruz’s defense at short stop, although my expectations were low. Do you think he could stay there for at least a few years before moving to the outfield?
Keith Law: They may choose to leave him there but I think he’s best suited to another position.

Walshy: Aaron Ashby ever a guy that will get to 5 or 6 innings consistently or better in smaller spurts? The stuff and K rates are absurd.
Keith Law: don’t think he’ll have the command for that.

Grover: I recall you weren’t bullish on Julio Urias being able to come back after his shoulder injury (I wasn’t either) but was this basically an outlier/one in a million type of thing or are we reaching a point with those types of shoulder injuries that they are more recoverable in the same way we started to see with elbow injuries in the last decade or so?
Keith Law: Extreme outlier – I think he’s the only pitcher ever to come back from that injury/surgery and hold up as a starter.
Keith Law: Which is good news, but one exception does not disprove the rule.

Clay, Rutherford: Have you had a chance to see Myrtle Beach SS Kevin Made in action? 19 years old, has hit 9 HR this year in an offensively repressed league, is walking about five times as often as he did last year, and carries a .975 fielding percentage at SS (I know, not a great measure of defensive prowess, but still).
Keith Law: Saw him in the spring. The boosted walk rate is great news and a surprise, as I thought he was a good bit behind even his teammates in that regard. That club is pretty loaded with hitting prospects.

Tom: Ok ok i’m prepared to get denied here, but can we at least say Nats Luis Garcia is a regular?
Keith Law: Based on what? Sub 0 WAR again this year, 2 BB and 30 K so far in the majors.

Tim: Does Strider’s slider play up because of how good his fastball is? His slider is running a pretty high whiff rate despite reports of it being a below average pitch
Keith Law: Yes, the fastball has exceptional vertical movement. Great piece by Justin Choi on Fangraphs today about it.

ProjectHanyo: So with the Paxton Kling news that he will skip the draft and go to LSU, I saw a comment that one should go to colleges like Vandy or LSU than pro ball because of the minor league life is horrible and college life is great and among your peers, and MLB training staffs are 1/100th of the value of the training staffs of LSU or Vandy’s. I facepalmed so hard, surely MLB teams can’t be that incompetent not to mention the other stuff
Keith Law: College is right for some guys. It’s not right for everyone. That’s certainly not true about training staffs, but I think there is – or was, with this silly realignment happening – an argument that the life of a college player is easier than the life of a minor league player when it comes to travel.

Frank: When Henry Davis was selected last year there was some question if he could stick behind the plate.  Is there any question now that he will be a full time catcher or does that question still remain?
Keith Law: I never had that question about his glove, so of course I’m saying no, there’s no question now.

Guest: Is there any defense for Shane McClanahan not being the ASG starter?
Keith Law: That the all-star game is a silly marketing event and we shouldn’t care about it? OK fine there’s no defense.

Ian: Is Enrique Bradfield Jr. as good as he is fun to watch? Not sure how he profiles as a pro.
Keith Law: Yes. He’ll be in the 1-1 discussion next year, I think.

Rob: Thanks for answering my question re Blaze Jordan on The Athletic. Although he was known for power as a prep you mentioned we’re not seeing it now. I would have thought this (presumed) emphasis on contact would be part of the development process and that not showing power wouldn’t be a concern. Am I misunderstanding? Was there a swing change to emphasize contact that makes his power inaccessible or is there still a chance all of his skills consolidate?
Keith Law: I’ve seen him twice now. That swing isn’t going to produce game power.

Larry: Is Jobe going to be an ace? How is his stuff looking in the limited innings
Keith Law: It’s been down. Multiple scouts have told me more mid-rotation guy, like 3rd/4th starter, based on what they’ve seen this year. Could always come back.

Jeff: Should Orioles look to still sell Santander or Mancini?  Stay the course?  Not sure they should be buyers.
Keith Law: They shouldn’t let a winning streak divert them from their long-term plan. They should sell opportunistically.
Keith Law: That’s all for this chat, as I have a radio hit right now. I’ll do a Q&A over at The Athletic on Sunday afternoon and again at some point on Monday once the draft has begun. Thank you as always for all of your questions!

Starting today at 2 pm ET. Subscribers to the Athletic can read my latest minor-league scouting post, on Kyle Harrison, Jay Groome, and others; and my second mock for the upcoming MLB draft.

Keith Law: It’s the sound of a brand new day. Klawchat.

Aaron C.: Off the top of your head, is this year’s midseason top 50 going to feature the most new names due to graduations in the history of Klaw? Celebrators of chaos unite! *cackles*
Keith Law: Yes, certainly seems that way. I’ll do this a few days after the draft, as I did last year, so I can include some of those players as well. Looking back at my preseason top 100 I think 8 of the top 9 will be off the midseason list (where I just go by whether they’re in the majors, not rookie status as I do in the offseason). So the top of the midseason list will be especially fun and different.

Jason S: Who’s the more promising breakout player Ceddanne Rafaela or Ezequiel Tovar?
Keith Law: Tovar. Better chance for + defensive value. Rafaela is a lot smaller, too.

Erica: Couldn’t someone just put Ben Joyce in their big league bullpen right now?
Keith Law: They could, but I don’t think he’d do very well. He walked 10% of hitters in college this year. That’s going to be much higher even in AA, let alone the majors.

Mike W: Gavin Stone not slowing down in AA, has he passed up Bobby Miller?
Keith Law: Stone’s a good prospect but he’s not close to Miller. That’s stat-line scouting. Miller was in my preseason top 50 because he has a very good chance to be not just a starter, but a good one.

Bret S: I appreciate all of the book reviews you do. Maybe a dumb question but how do you finish books you don’t like? I have so many I want to read I bail out the minute I realize I don’t like the one I’m reading.
Keith Law: Sometimes I don’t, especially if the book is long. I’m not pushing myself to finish books I read for pleasure. I do read a few books a year for completist purposes, like the Pulitzer and Hugo winners, but otherwise I don’t see the reason to force myself to read something I don’t love. I gave up on How late it was, how late, even though I’m sort of working my way through the Booker winners, because it was so hard to read and unpleasant too. (A book can be hard to read, but enjoyable, like some Faulkner.)

Thomas T: Hi Keith;
Thoughts on either Wingspan expansions? I’ve followed many of your recommendations over the years (and have been glad I did). I love Wingspan for its short gameplay, so I’m wondering if the added time isn’t really going to bring enough value to take it from a <90 min game to closer to 2 hours.
Keith Law: I’ve actually never played the expansions – they just announced a third one this week, Asia – mostly because I don’t play many expansions to any games. I own so many games, and play so many new games each year for reviews, that I play very few games enough to want to alter the experience with an expansion. It has to really add something good to game play, like Carcassonne’s Traders & Builders does, or add better components, like Ticket to Ride’s 1910 expansion. But a lot of expansions just add complexity or extend game time, and that appeals to me less. I do have one expansion I want to play & review, for Paris: La Cité de la Lumière, but haven’t gotten to it yet.

Mike: Last week, You and dvr discussed the rebuilding teams but left out one clear one – the Nats. Is it just because they are so early on it it/whats your take on their current state?
Keith Law: I don’t think we tried to cover every single rebuilding team – that would have taken more than the time we have for the show. They are early in their rebuild, but I also think when they get closer the (current) owners are likely to spend big in free agency to supplement, which isn’t true for all rebuilding clubs.

David: Hi Keith, Does the pitching Elijah Green faced at IMG compare at all to what Cam Collier saw in junior college? You had previously mentioned Green faced perhaps the toughest high school pitching in the country this year (please correct me if I’m wrong). Thanks!
Keith Law: I think that the second part about Green is fair, but no high school pitching is going to be close to what Collier saw facing Florida jucos.

Mike: Welcome back! Any reason the Yankees don’t drop Joey Gallo now, even if they have to eat his salary? And, do you know why he has been so historically, abysmally bad with the Yankees?
Keith Law: Seems very overreactive. Also, there’s no question another team would take him, even if it’s just to take the rest of the contract.

Casey: Masyn Winn seemed like a high risk/reward draft pick in 2020 that has done well this season…do you think he could be an above average regular at SS?
Keith Law: Yes. Huge credit to the Cards for that draft – Walker and Winn were both very high risk/high reward guys, for different reasons, and so far both have performed at or near the top end of expectations. It’s like betting eight the hard way, twice, and hitting it both times. (Not really because that is a stupid bet in craps, but I hope you get the general idea.)

PghJake: Will Ben Cherrington have the draft pool to pull off this year what he did last year?
Keith Law: They only have one extra pick this year, and they pick 4th rather than 1st. That’s a lot less money in their pool.

Casey: As a Cardinals fan I keep reading about the success of Gordon Graceffo this season. What’s the word on him within the industry?
Keith Law: I had a note on him in late March in a scouting post and what I wrote then still stands. He’s a legitimate mid-rotation starter prospect.

Erik: Can Christopher Morel be a legitimate starting outfielder? Or do you get Junior Lake vibes?
Keith Law: There’s a whole lot in between those two outcomes. I think he’s in the middle of that. Probably not a regular.

Casey: How has Tommy Edman turned into this? I remember you saying you thought wouldn’t be much more than a backup infielder but now he leads the league in WAR…what changed with him?
Keith Law: Multiple things have changed – he’s a pretty different player now, and while I would bet the under on him repeating this in the second half, he’s become such a valuable defensive player that his floor is way higher. I don’t think he was ever this good a defender in the minors. He also makes more hard contact than I expected, or than he did as a prospect. Right now he’d probably be the first guy on my “guys I was wrong about” list.

Alex: When do you see Jud Fabian getting selected in the draft?  In other words, did he make the right choice by not signing with the Red Sox last year?
Keith Law: I don’t think he goes any higher and probably ends up with less money than what he turned down. He’s the same guy he was a year ago, except now he’s almost 22. There’s just way too much swing and miss here, with no improvement over two seasons in his main areas of weakness. You can read more about him on my Big Board.

Ryan: Do you think the Dbacks will promote Carroll this year? The lineup could really use a boost
Keith Law: That’s the wrong reason to promote your best prospect, though. You promote him because he’s ready, and needs the bigger challenge.

Billy: The teams who passed on Lawlar because he was “old” for the class are probably kicking themselves right now.
Keith Law: Did anyone really do that? I’m sure it was a small factor in some models, but I don’t think any team flat-out passed on him for that reason. He was old for the class, though – no scare quotes needed. 19 is old for a HS senior.

Aaron C.: Restaurant you’re most looking forward to hitting up during All Star weekend in LA?
Keith Law: I’m afraid I won’t have much time for food tourism on that trip. Might be more breakfast & lunch and then I improvise for dinners with the Futures Game on Saturday evening (followed by a lot of writing) and then the draft on Sunday night (followed by more writing and sleep).

Aaron C.: May I selfishly request any modicum of positive prospect-related news you might have from the A’s farm system for those of us who are still inexplicably A’s fans?
Keith Law: Yes. Zack Gelof is both justifying my choice to rank him in the “just missed” column and making me wish I’d gone even further. (He’s out now with a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, though.)

Jesse B: How concerned are you about Noelvi Marte’s season?
Keith Law: I’m not.

Finney: Mark Appel finally made it to the majors, and I couldn’t be happier for him. What is the main reason he never became the top-of-the-rotation arm that he once seemed destined to be? Was the quality of his stuff eroded by injuries and/or misuse? Did he simply fail to develop past what he was in college? Or did everyone overestimate how good he was in the first place?
Keith Law: Everyone has an explanation on that one, and I think it was a combination of many things. One is that his fastball played well below its velocity in pro ball. I would bet that in the trackman era, he doesn’t go 1-1, because advanced data is not as kind to his stuff as the radar gun was.
Keith Law: I do also think pitching in Lancaster, which was a ridiculous hitters’ park that I often compared to playing baseball on the moon, really hurt him as a pitcher, because of the way it amplified any mistakes and imposed a greater cost on his stuff than any other park might have. I’m so glad that park is gone.

Charlotte: If you had to take one going forward out of Adley, Witt and JRodriguez…who ya got? Still small enough sample that you would default to preseason rankings?
Keith Law: I might go J-Rod given youth and now that he’s demonstrated 80 speed across the board. DVR and I discussed on him on last week’s podcast and why I should/would have ranked him higher if I’d seen that before.

Anthony: Is the hype on Jackson Chourio justified?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s really good.

David: Keith, if you had to rank in likelihood for Cubs at 7, between Lee, Parada, Termarr, and Collier…. What order do you have?
Keith Law: I’ll have another mock in less than two weeks.

Phil: Thoughts on Bo Naylor’s season and is this the type of offense you thought you’d see from him when he first came out?
Keith Law: Yes but bear in mind that he was repeating AA. Still optimistic. Also I’d like to point out that my habit of calling breakouts a year early may now extend to Josh Naylor, who is doing this year what I said he’d do last year.

JR: Is all this college realignment good, bad or neutral for college baseball? I wish college football and mens basketball (the $ makers) would form their own league and leave the rest of the non-money making sports in their geographical footprints
Keith Law: I think it’s bad for college baseball because of the huge travel that might be imposed on players if we lose all of the geographical ties on the conferences. One point college coaches like to make to recruits is that going pro means lots of times sitting on buses for road trips. I’d rather do that than fly cross-country and try to play while jet-lagged, and also not getting paid.

Jack: Any chance Colson Montgomery has played his way into the top 100?
Keith Law: I just saw him two nights ago, blog post to come later this week, but the short answer is no.

Mike: Chances that the “franchises heretofore known as the Oakland A’s and Tampa Bay Rays” actually relocate? And, where?
Keith Law: In what timeframe?

Rick: Has your long-term outlook of Detmers changed after his initial MLB time? On a side note, thanks for all your non baseball posts and links.
Keith Law: I’m a little less optimistic but maybe like 10% so.

Craig: You recently teased a possible visit to London (and/or elsewhere in the UK).  Are you able to expand on that possibility?
Keith Law: The store event I was working on fell through, so while I’ll be there in August, I don’t currently have a place for some sort of meet-up. I’m still open to it and will see what else I can do, though. More than enough of you said you’d be game for it.

Kahlil (Jupiter, FL): What happens to my hit tool? Why am I striking out so much? Can I develop a two strike approach?
Keith Law: One of the bigger and more shocking disappointments of the season.

Freddie Freeman: How tired are you of hearing about how my agent screwed me and how much I miss Atlanta?
Keith Law: I really do not have any desire to get involved in that storyline at all.

Eric: Do you garden? If so, how much? What do you grow? Is it therapeutic for you?
Keith Law: I do! We grew radishes this year, which were done by early June; and arugula and English peas, which are finishing up now. We have tomatoes, cucumbers, beets, bell peppers, and possibly one watermelon plant all still going, plus some herbs in the garden and in pots. This was our first year doing it in the new yard, so some of this was an experiment to see what would work in that space, but everything has grown beyond our hopes. I don’t know if I’d say it’s therapeutic but I love the reward of eating what we grow. I’m less interested in things we can’t eat.
Keith Law: I always want to have thyme and rosemary plants going. I use those herbs enough and fresh is so much better than dried that they’re essential IMO. And we have several basil plants which I need to be more diligent about harvesting and pruning (you want to remove the buds before flowers appear, as that will make the leaves more bitter).

JK: Did you watch House of Gucci just to make fun of Leto? Worth it, but it wasn’t even the best Scott-Driver movie last year.
Keith Law: No, we actually wanted to watch it. I was surprised by how boring it was. I knew the accents would be an issue, and I am not a Leto fan at all, but the movie just sucked. All that money and time and effort for such a big nothing? How do you turn a story with multiple scandals into such a dull script?

Jay: How much has Gunnar Henderson improved his stock this year? His season, at his age, has been incredible.
Keith Law: I’ll put it this way … he’ll figure quite prominently in the midseason rankings update.

Justin: Does trading Bryan Reynolds make sense for the Pirates right now? Do you think they’re at all close to winning if they keep him or do they stand to gain more by obtaining the haul they would get in a trade?
Keith Law: I think they have to trade him now – both from a rebuilding perspective and that of his likely value going forward.

Kevin: Hi Keith, love your whole deal.  The White Sox are in shambles at the major league and their minors offer little immediate help.  Should they, in the up coming draft, select a college player (who they can rush to the majors to avoid signing a FA) or draft a HS player (they trade in the offseason to avoid  spending in FA)
Keith Law: Best player available. I don’t like the “rush a guy to the majors” idea – I think that has failed more often than people realize when they make such a pick.
Keith Law: And if the general sense that the gap between the minors and the majors right now is bigger than ever is true, doesn’t that make that idea – that we can take, say, a great college reliever and race him to the majors – even less plausible?

Jon: Still playing guitar?
Keith Law: Yep, as much as I can, at least. Finding time is always tricky but I do sneak some in every day.

Caleb: How excited should O’s fans be about Coby Mayo hitting AA already? Also, Is Gunnar Henderson a GUY?
Keith Law: I didn’t understand that promotion, although the others all made sense. He wasn’t actually playing that well until the last 7-8 games, and then went on a little tear, but it obscured some of the approach issues I’d seen earlier in the year. Not saying he can’t figure it out, but I don’t think the move up was justified by the production or how he looked doing it.

Anonymous: You’ve commented previously on how you really do not like Twenty-One Pilots. Can you explain further what you don’t like about their music?
Keith Law: Literally everything.

Appa Yip Yip: You are standing in front of a treasure chest. Do you immediately open it for the sweet, sweet loot, or do you hit it with your sword on the off chance it’s a mimic that will eat you?
Keith Law: Can I cast detect traps?

Russ: Is your reading done on planes, or at home on the porch?  At night, or whenever you get a free period (what is the minimum time you need to set aside to set down and read?)
Keith Law: On planes, in the evening before bed, waiting in line or other places, and yes sometimes on the porch. I’ll read 2 pages if I have the time. If I’m at a game and am not sitting with anyone I know, which is more common with so many teams cutting pro scouts the last few years, I’ll read between innings and for pitching changes. It might be 2 pages each time but I might get through 20-30 pages over the course of a game.

Aaron: Has Michael Harris II’s hot, albeit unsustainable, start changed his floor/ceiling at all for you?
Keith Law: No.

Chris: Keith, you scouted Ceddanne Rafaela against one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and Marcelo Mayer the day after he came back from a wrist injury, and was immediately shut down with the same injury. Why do you hate my team?
Keith Law: It is rather unfortunate. Fortunately I know I’ll see those guys again by virtue of geography.

Pat: Baltimore is one of the most reliant teams on its draft models, right? I am surprised Collier isn’t linked to them more. Seems like he would do very, very well for model-heavy teams given his age
Keith Law: Same. But we also don’t really know what their plan is.

Scott (NYC): I recall you were high on Dom Smith. Any thoughts on his struggles? Does he just need consistent playing time? Stop putting him in the outfield? It seems pretty certain Mets are going to trade him and he will revert to 2020 form
Keith Law: Agreed. Needs regular playing time at a position he can play, and probably to get the hell away from a front office that has clearly had no use for him for over a year now.

Randall: What are your thoughts on the timing of the draft this year?
Keith Law: I hate it. The draft should be this week.

Sam: Where are teams with Kumar Rocker?  I assume the medical issue still exists.  Do you think some team is willing to take him in the first round?
Keith Law: We don’t know what his medicals say and as far as I know no team has seen anything other than the Mets.

Dallas: Bryce Harper currently is the vote leader in NL DH for the ASG. 2nd place is William Contreras. Harper will win but won’t play. Will Contreras be the replacement starter or do you think they treat it like past games and choose the best hitter to be the replacement starting DH?
Keith Law: I actually didn’t know Harper was leading that position in voting. I just pay no attention to AS voting.

Dallas: Vaun Brown just got promoted to Hi-A after crushing the Lo-A Cal League and crushing his college league when a 5th year senior. He’s old. Need to wait and see until 2A, correct?
Keith Law: Yes. He’s 24. Same for Niko Kavadas in the Sox system – just had an incredible June, but he’s 23.5 and most of that came in low A.

Dave: Is Joey Bart going to be anything more than an all glove no hit player?  The strikeout rate is unbelievably high, probably even higher than what most expected.
Keith Law: now I just hear Jimmy McMillan saying “the strikeout rate is too damn high!”

Brittney: Wainwright HOF?
Keith Law: I don’t see it.

Greg: Any quick thoughts on your trip to see Oscar Colas and Colson Montgomery?  No way Colas sticks as a CF right?
Keith Law: Blog post later this week. Also saw Griff McGarry last night, and will go back again for some of those other Jersey Shore pitchers (Abel, Painter, Brown).

Eric: Re: Gardening, we just closed on a 5-acre property, so excited to really be able to build a big garden. Love eating what we grow, and agree, we are not about growing things we can’t use.
Keith Law: I don’t think we could ever be those people who grow a huge part of the produce they eat – we have the space, but not the time – but now that we’ve shown a lot of plants will grow very well in that space, we’re going to be more aggressive about it next year.

Portofbrandon: I really enjoy the Stick to Baseball posts, and it would be a shame if you couldn’t keep doing them
Keith Law: They’re still going. Already started this week’s.

addoeh: How was teaching your oldest how to drive?
Keith Law: She learned most of it in school – I can’t take any credit here. She’ll just practice with me. Driver’s ed was so much better anyway; as any parents of teens know, they learn and accept criticism much better from anyone who isn’t a parent.

Chris: Could Jacob berry fall to the 20s or is he a lock before then?
Keith Law: I don’t think he gets near that far. Heard Rockies as a floor.

America: remember when we a functioning democracy? me neither …
Keith Law: We were more of one not that long ago.

Salty: Keith – have not seen you mention Black Map in your new music write-ups – didn’t check out the new album yet, or not feeling it?
Keith Law: I think I included one of their singles on a playlist in maybe March? New playlist in the next few days too.

Pat: Is there too much good TV right now? I find I have to keep a list of what I want to watch because at every given time there are 5-8 shows that are really good. Invariably, i catch half of them, forgot about/delay the other half & maybe never catch up.
Keith Law: We feel like we’re hopelessly behind. We did finally start Abbott Elementary last night and watched 5 episodes (of 13) … it’s fantastic. It’s really just Parks & Recreation set in a Philly elementary school with a majority POC cast, but I’m on this show’s wavelength and already love the character development. Also the principal had one line that made me laugh so hard we had to pause the show.

Tom: Noone from AA Harrisburg stuck out to you on your recent trip to see them vs altoona?
Keith Law: Correct.

Mahatma Kane Jeeves: Late to the chat, so apologies if you’ve answered this. But do you like how Tink Hence is being managed so far in 2022? I know he’s a short & skinny guy (and the small sample results have certainly been fun) but it’s late June and he’s throwing 3 innings over and over….
Keith Law: Didn’t he miss almost all of last year too?

Jim: How much of the Phillies’ failure to produce good young talent is bad timing (having 1-1 in a historically bad draft), bad development (screwing up Kingery) or bad luck (Haseley). Still hopeful for Bohm and Stott and the Jersey Shore arms.
Keith Law: I think there was a combination of bad choices in the draft + poor development under the last regime. It’s going to take a little time to turn that player development ship around, but I believe Mattingly/Fuld will get them there.

Dan: Like, you seem to legitimately believe that there is a female soul wandering through the ether that actually, accidentally found a host in a male human forming in utero. That is the basis of all “trans rights” ideas. Buying into this just obliterates my perception of you as a man of science.
Keith Law: This is just wrong. There’s quite a bit of research on the biological basis for gender identity; you are either unfamiliar with it, or choosing to ignore it. It took me a few seconds to find this research paper on the subject: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7139786/
Keith Law: And here’s another: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21334362/

There’s plenty of publicly available research on this. Mischaracterizing it as woo, as you have, is quite a tell.

Milana and Stevie: Best baseball movie, to you? We just saw Bull Durham again, and Tim Robbins is a real hoot, but that CAN’T be the best baseball movie ever…can it? (We like Long Gone, with Bill Peterson & Ginny Madsen the best.)
Keith Law: Sugar. And so few people have seen it

Drew (mpls): Any new 2 person games you’ve tried lately? Love Lost Cities and Jaipur, both from your recommendations. Thanks!
Keith Law: No but I’ve got two in the queue.

Jay: Funny or Sad?  Jays meet the Red Sox in the post season and the deciding game comes down to the Red Sox Hauck-less bullpen blowing a late lead.
Keith Law: Am I wrong to think that there has been way too little criticism of Houck for this? Not only is he wrong on the science, but the choice is selfish for him as a teammate and as a member of his community. There’s no defense.

Jibraun: Re best baseball movie, Sugar is fantastic, but may I suggest Everybody Wants Some by Richard Linklater?
Keith Law: I love that movie. Excellent choice.
Keith Law: Time to go record the next podcast with DVR, so I have to wrap this up. Thanks so much for all of your questions. Stay tuned for more minor league scouting blogs and two more mock drafts over the next 2 1/2 weeks as we head to draft day, plus a Futures Game recap the night of the game. Stay safe!

Starting at 3 pm ET. My latest column for subscribers to The Athletic looks at the first few weeks for players who debuted in MLB this month. For Paste, I reviewed Skull Canyon: Ski Fest, a new Ticket to Ride-like game with an extra phase that lets you pick up more gear for the next day on the slopes.

Keith Law: In the final seconds, who’s gonna save you? Klawchat.

Matt: Why doesn’t MLB just stick Angel Hernandez at 3B rather than let him call strikes in a nationally televised game?
Keith Law: Don’t think they can dictate that? The umpires rotate through their positions, and I imagine there’d be a huge fight – maybe another lawsuit – if they denied him the right to work the plate in a nationally televised game.

Aaron C.: Cristian Pache has two walks in his first 63 PAs. A’s seem content to bat him 8th/9th. Even in a lost/rebuilding year, when does it become untenable?
Keith Law: He should be in triple A, and I say that as someone who is a longtime Pache believer.

JR: If the choices for the Mets next Monday are to cut Cano or Jankowski, or demote Smith, cutting Cano is the smartest option right?
Keith Law: Yes. If they don’t want to use Smith, and clearly someone in that FO does not like him, demoting him would hurt any trade value he has less – and I know other teams that like him.

Matt: When you worked in Toronto, did you ever get the sense that players “know” when a teammate sucks? Like say a #4 hitter is up. Does he feel pressure because the #5 hitter ( I’m talking to you Joey Gallo) couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn from 2 feet away? Or is the mindset more along the lines of hitting is hard, he’s a professional, he’ll get the job done.
Keith Law: I don’t remember that per se, but I do remember we could tell when players clearly didn’t like someone as a teammate – you could see the body language differ in the clubhouse, or who was talking to whom.

Aaron C.: Understand if you’d rather not name names, but have you ever scouted a kid with significant “make up” issues who ultimately turned his sh t around and thrived in the bigs?
Keith Law: Yes. But in some cases I can think of, I have wondered if the makeup concerns were overblown. Javy Báez comes to mind – his makeup was fine, he was just a ‘showy’ Latino player and (white) people didn’t respond well to it. They were wrong.
Keith Law: I don’t know about someone with, say, REAL makeup issues, like a drug problem, getting to the show and succeeding. The ones who come to mind never panned out.

JR: If you were in a front office for a team that planned on contending next year, after the draft would you try and sign Conforto to a 2 year/20-22MM contract? Basically guarantee him the QO $ he turned down last December + a little extra for this year to get him in your system? Or would it not be worth trying?
Keith Law: Yes. Not sure Boras would go for it, but yes.

zuke: Ugh….Bench clearing brawls. When will baseball start suspending guys for leaving the dugout and especially the bullpen to go push each other in a scrum?

10….over/under on how man bench clearing incidents the mets are involved in this year. Not even may and already over the old-school baseball macho BS.
Keith Law: I haven’t watched any of this stuff, sorry. I would much rather watch actual baseball. If I’m at a game and a brawl breaks out, I take out whatever book I’m reading. Never liked it in hockey either.

Aaron C.: Any new weeknight meals/recipes in the rotation? My ungrateful ass family has apparently grown weary of the usual blood, sweat and tears I serve them during the work week.
Keith Law: Have been doing one of pasta alla vodka or all’amatriciana more or less every week lately. Neither is very hard, and you can just use good-quality bacon if you’d rather not hunt down pancetta (which is unsmoked, and definitely has a more porky flavor) or guanciale (my favorite, but it’s expensive and harder to find). Otherwise it’s all stuff you probably have in your house. Trader Joes now sells bucatini for $1.70 a pound, and it’s great for pasta all’amatriciana.

Aidan: Is Ezequiel Tovar a top 50 prospect? What he is doing in the Eastern League at age 20 is impressive.
Keith Law: He’s a prospect. It’s only two weeks, though.

Snit: Thoughts on Kyle Wright so far this season?
Keith Law: Cautious optimism. Was so high on him out of college, but his fastball didn’t play the same in pro ball and he was heavy on the slider, which I thought would be the out pitch. His curveball is easy plus now and he’s locating his fastball as well as ever – he might have 70 command, although SSS applies.

ProjectHanyo: What do you think of the NIL and the potential changes in scholarship caps and third paid assistant? Thinking the threat of college becomes a bigger risk which could lead to a few things, like higher minor league salary. But my fear is that MLB will take the NCAA like the NBA and NFL have and make it its de facto minor league system and get rid of the minors.
Keith Law: I think Rob Manfred would be very happy to farm out player development to the colleges, which would be worse for baseball and for players. I don’t think the NIL rules affect baseball. More scholarships would.

Terrified Citizen: Are we going to full-blown war with Russia if this course of events continues?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but, hey, I’m no Eric Feigl-Ding.

Buster: Hi Keith, do you think Maddux Bruns is the real deal based off his early showings this year and what he showed in spring training? Also, how much longer can the cardinals keep Michael McGreevy in High A as he’s just mowing em down and quite frankly, it’s unfair for those hitters lol.
Keith Law: Don’t think McGreevy’s developing there either. Command starters from college should do this in A-ball. I’m in on Bruns.

Jeff: Hi Keith, Twins fan here. Is this Joe Ryan for real?
Keith Law: No – see my comment under today’s piece. It’s not sustainable.

Noah: Are any of the royals “starters” salvageable. Talking Kowar, Singer, and Bubic. Brady just got sent down
Keith Law: Bubic is the one I think just needs to pitch. Kowar needs a breaking ball. Singer needs to go to the bullpen.

Seth: Your thoughts on Bryan Ramos? Is he now the Sox best prospect?
Keith Law: He was #11 on my White Sox top 20 before the season. I think he’s in their top 3 now.
Keith Law: Colás is off to a great start in A+, too.

ProjectHanyo: What do you think is causing all the higher than normal TJ/elbow injuries among the draft class? Last year would have made more sense given how colleges and high schools were restricted due to COVID with training.
Keith Law: Hypothesis: Guys barely pitched in 2020. Then they all pitched in 2021 like they hadn’t missed a year. Now the piper comes calling.

Eric: Why do I have to watch Cavan Biggio when Samad Taylor exists?
Keith Law: Preaching to the choir on that. The Jays fans mad online about my opinions on Biggio have been quiet.

Johnny Mo: If you’re the Cardinals can you rationalize moving Edman to SS and bringing up Gorman?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine that … I feel like it’s a big defensive hit to take. I also was looking at Edman’s batted ball data the other day, and, jeez, I missed on that guy completely.

Michael: I made an insensitive comment to you on your CODA review and want to apologize for that
Keith Law: Oh, thank you, but that’s truly not necessary.

Book: Sorry if I missed it, but have you recently made any good reading recommendations fiction/non
Keith Law: I’ve been reading more the last few weeks with more travel. Jason Mott’s Hell of a Book was amazing. Black Swan Green was excellent too. Emily Fridlund’s History of Wolves was very good. Non-fiction … I interviewed Dr. Ellen Hendriksen (How to Be Yourself) and Kathryn Schulz (Lost & Found) for my podcast after reading and enjoying both of their books.
Keith Law: Currently reading Eating to Extinction by Dan Saladino, about rare foods we’re at risk of losing due to globalization, climate change, or other stupid human tricks.

BD DC: Luis Garcia is killing the ball at AAA.  Has the light gone on?
Keith Law: I don’t believe in any hitter who has that much big-league time going back down to beat up inferior AAA pitching until he does it again in the majors. Not saying he hasn’t changed, but any varsity player should be able to hit JV pitching.

Elon Musk: Gonna stick around, Keith? Free speech for everyone!
Keith Law: I’m not going anywhere. I did set up an account on counter.social, @keithlaw, for folks who fled there from Twitter, but I am not deactivating my Twitter account.

Joe: I assume Gore is getting some help from bad teams but he looks pretty damn good considering where he was a year ago?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time. I’m very pleased with where he is. I still see work to do.

Bob: You mentioned passivity in your report on Evan Carter. Have you found that to be somewhat innate and hard to change or the kind of thing a good development team should be able to help improve?
Keith Law: Depends on the person. No hard & fast rule there. Jeremy Hermida just watched this question go right by him.

Kevin: What’s up Klaw. Hope all is well. Long term for A’s…Murphy or Langeliers? Who would you prefer?
Keith Law: I would trade Murphy and promote Langeliers. Nothing against Murphy, but Langeliers provides a similar skill set, and Murphy should return a big haul. Of course, when you’re playing Christian Bethancourt at first base…

John Standing: Hey Keith, are you a believer in Taylor Ward’s start? Thanks
Keith Law: He has a .531 OBP. I am going to boldly predict that that will come down.

zuke: Does the international draft help players. They already gave away any real benefit when they capped it. But does the draft at least help with the “agent” issues?
Keith Law: If that’s coming to pass, I will write about it at length on the Athletic. I don’t think I could do it justice in a chat answer.

David: Does Jacob Berry have the type of elite bat where he could be a top 5-10 pick even if he ends up at 1B/DH?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. Maybe someone takes him there. He’s a DH.

addoeh: Any resto recs in Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads?  Couldn’t find any articles on The Dish.
Keith Law: I actually have not been down there since high school, other than a day trip to Norfolk to see Neil Ramirez about 15 years ago.

Adam: When Manny Machado says to the media that he’ll be “a very mad, mad, man” if Hosmer gets traded off the Padres, should that affect the FO’s actions at all?
Keith Law: No.

J: Another make up question-how does a parents make up issues (thinking of Jay Groome in the past, Justin Crawford this year with Carl’s record label fighting with an artist) affect the player’s standing
Keith Law: The Groome stuff was bullshit. Groome’s father ended up in jail for a whole host of crimes. Jay has had no makeup trouble I’ve heard of in pro ball – just trouble staying healthy.

Pepe: Thanks for your coverage of mental health topics over the years Keith. I suffered from social phobia my whole life but only later learned there is a strong comorbidity with ADHD, which i was recently diagnosed with. One aspect of ADHD is the ability to hyperfocus on things that a person is interested in or when a deadline is looming. This is sometimes framed as a superpower, but most acknowledge ADHD overall is burden to live with.

I saw a recent high draft pick mention he had ADHD on twitter and immediately wondered if teams factor conditions like this into evaluations? I feel like statistically an ADHD person may or may not be more likely to succeed in the bigs (not sure which). To me it seems like being able to focus in the moment or hyperfocus in preparation/training/theory would be a superpower, but also if baseball becomes unfun it would be much easier for these players to “check out”. Have you heard anything about this line of thinking when selecting amateurs?
Keith Law: Teams have different philosophies on such players – some view it as a negative, some don’t care, most I think would just want to know beforehand. A player with a real ADHD diagnosis can get an exemption to take medications, most of which are amphetamine derivatives, while playing, and those medications can confer real advantages to players – which is why some players try to use them without the exemptions.
Keith Law: I don’t know if I can answer any more concretely than that. How specific teams view these diagnoses I do not know.

J: With the NFL draft today, who is the biggest loss that you think baseball as a sport has lost to another sport
Keith Law: As a player? We’ve lost a few two-sport guys out of high school – Brandon McIlwain comes to mind – who could have been really good if they’d stuck with baseball, and then didn’t pan out in football either. (He’s with the Mets now and struggling.) Pat Mahomes was a prospect but everyone knew in HS he’d end up playing football, which I think was the right choice for him.
Keith Law: It’s often hard to say because even the best baseball prospects need a lot more time and reps before they get to the big leagues, and if they quit, it’s at age 17 or 18, before they’re finished products.

Adam: Have you noticed any specific changes that has allowed Nestor Cortes to become this effective? Granted between last year and this year we are still only looking at about a 1/2 year of innings, so it’s still small sample size territory? Is this likely just a great stretch, or do you see a potential mid-rotation guy going forward?
Keith Law: The cutter is the new thing, right? I don’t think he had that before he was waived and traded and sent to Scriberia or wherever. It might be a 70, though.
Keith Law: He might have the most interesting zero-to-hero story of anyone, though. The Yankees had him, lost him in the rule 5, got him back, got rid of him, got him back again, and now he’s (waves hands) this.
Keith Law: Lindsey Adler wrote about some of the Yankees’ pitch design stuff earlier this month, including the slider they call the “whirly” (there’s got to be a better way to say that).

addoeh: Can Keegan Thompson be a back of the rotation starter or is he more of a multi inning reliever?
Keith Law: 5th starter maybe?

Deke: Literally any reason to believe in Eric Hosmer being productive (not THIS productive, but productive)?
Keith Law: All available data says no.

Guest: Matt McLain- guy, Guy or GUY?
Keith Law: Guy. Maybe a 55 in the end.
Keith Law: He was on my top 100, and here in my Reds org report.

Tony: What is missing with Mitch Keller? Pretty much since he came up, his adjusted numbers make him seem like a solid pitcher, but his results are just so bad. Is he basically the anti-Matt Cain?
Keith Law: No changeup, for one thing. The FB is pretty true and I think hitters see it too well. LHB have given him trouble since AA, but now right-handers are too. I’d love to see him try a splitter.

SG: Do you think Elly De La Cruz will stay at SS or do you see a move to the outfield in the future?
Keith Law: He’s awfully big for SS. If he hits, we won’t really care where he plays.

Jon: What are your thoughts on Bauer’s leave being endlessly dragged out? I’m surprised the PA wouldn’t be urging for a quicker decision.
Keith Law: I do not understand it … it feels like both the union and league are kicking the can down Sinister Street (this is an obscure reference even for me).

Dr. Bob: RE: Today’s piece. If a young player is being overmatched, should the team send him down to the minors for a few weeks or let him try to figure it out in the majors? Is there a best development path?
Keith Law: I would not advocate for any of the players I mentioned today to be sent down. I don’t think it would benefit any of them.

Guest: Who would you draft first- Prelipp or Lesko?
Austin: Does Ivan Melendez (the Hispanic Titanic!) have a pro future or is hitting dingers every night in Austin his baseball peak?
Keith Law: Top 5 rounds.

Michael: We are seeing pitchers throw 104 now.  That was unthinkable 20 years ago. Do you think it can go much higher?
Keith Law: I don’t. There has to be a physical maximum, right? I recall an old study that put it around 105.

Appa Yip Yip: Any notes on Samad Taylor?
Keith Law: I was surprised they didn’t protect him. See my Blue Jays top 20 for more.

Mike: How does the last week or so change how we look at Andrew Painter? Does he start sliding up prospect lists?
Keith Law: It doesn’t. A week of performance shouldn’t change anything. And the #1 thing I would want to see from Painter this year is health.

Matt: Have you watched Winning Time? Gotta love the real life Lakers Barbara Streisanding the whole thing.
Keith Law: I haven’t. Never been much of a basketball fan.

Jonathan: Are you buying Tyler O’Niell going forward? Not necessarily as a consistent top 10 MVP candidate but as a legit above average player or is there still too much swing and miss?
Keith Law: He’s been horrible. He homered Opening Day and is slugging under .200 since then.
Keith Law: I’m just saying I don’t know what I would buy. I expected regression. This is more than that.

Pat D: Will starting pitchers ever pitch 7 innings again?  How many teams do you think will keep 14 pitchers during May with the new ruling?
Keith Law: I think the new normal is starters twice through the order. Expanding rosters might keep pitchers healthy but it will also ensure that we see more pitchers per game and no more 200 inning starters.

Cal: Hey Keith, I remember you being higher than most on David Calabrese in the 2020 Draft. Still very young, but any update on him?
Keith Law: Very young but the lost summer/fall really killed him. He needs to get stronger, and he needs to play. He’s in extended and I think he has a ways to go.

ProjectHanyo: Speaking of 2-way players, wonder how much Maurice Hampton regrets rejecting 1.8 million out of high school as he plays baseball only at Samford
Keith Law: I agree, but he did get a championship ring at LSU (football). That’s something. He’s actually hitting a little better lately at Samford and could go in the top 10 rounds

Walt: Following up on losing prospects to other sports, am I recalling correctly that you thought Jake Locker was potentially a high-level baseball player? Got a nice payday as a high draft pick, but never really panned out on the football field.
Keith Law: YES. That’s the name. Great memory.

UGW: Any chance Brady House stays at SS?
Keith Law: I would say zero.

Matt: Jan 6th Committee just said there will be 8 public hearings starting in June. Think it matters?
Keith Law: I think they are right to do it but I doubt it matters. A third of the country thinks those traitors were right.

Frank: What are your thoughts on using an opener?  Have you seen any data related to its effectiveness or lack thereof?  Lastly, is TB use of openers primarily to protect its young arms?
Keith Law: I understand the rationale. I find it annoying to my inner fan.

Rob: Acknowledging that it’s two weeks, are there any other prospects who look arrows up similar to Bryan Ramos?
Keith Law: Not for nothing, but he’s walked 2 times all year with 12 Ks. That’s at least worth considered as a counterbalance to the strong performance on BIP.

Andrew: What’s better for you- clicking to your articles through your Twitter account or just read from the Athletic app?
Keith Law: Doesn’t matter. I’m happy you’re reading. And so are my bosses.

Guest: What was the answer to my Prelipp/Lesko question- didn’t see the answer posted below the question
Keith Law: Prielipp will be able to throw before the draft, and that higher level of certainty helps him quite a bit. But we have basically no scouting looks on him since high school – four starts before the pandemic in 2020, seven innings total before he blew out last spring.

Pei: When someone asks a question such as “Is Joe Ryan for real” and you point out that his current start is obviously SSS and unsustainable, are you implying that you do not see nor have heard anything that suggests the player is tangibly different from how you evaluated him before the season? Because as a reader, when I see a question like that, I am interested in if there is any difference in the player at all, not if his SSS is real or not, which is an obvious answer
Keith Law: I see no difference in Joe Ryan 2022 versus Joe Ryan 2021. But, for better or worse, I take most questions literally. Is his performance this year sustainable? No, absolutely not. Is he a major-league starter? Hell yeah. I believed he was before 2022, too.

JR: I know you’re not a NBA guy, but can you recall the equivalent of Ben Simmons in the MLB? a seemingly healthy, all star caliber player, that can’t play likely due to mental health issues.
Keith Law: I can recall some minor leaguers, but not a major leaguer.

Marilyn: You as shocked as I am with what James Wood is doing?
Keith Law: Mostly. He mailed it in last spring, according to multiple scouts I know who saw him several times. Does he respond the same way when he struggles in pro ball?

Jay: Prediction time. Do you think the GOP flips one or both houses in midterms?
Keith Law: Yes

Ian: Obviously Daniel Espino is not going to have a K/9 approaching 20, but is he legitimately a #1 starter at his peak?
Keith Law: Yes.

TomBruno23: Wet Leg…9/7 at Delmar Hall, looking forward to that one.
Keith Law: The album disappointed me. I often like that droll sing-talky British style of vocals … but theirs annoys me more often than not.

Jim: Didn’t Greinke take time off because of mental health/social anxiety issues?
Keith Law: He’s going to the Hall of Fame. I was trying to think of a player whose career was derailed or substantially altered by mental illness.

Kevin: Would you consider yipps a mental health issue?
Keith Law: Depends very much on whom you ask.

Sam: Where does Kumar Rocker go in this draft?  Will he regret not taking the offer from the Mets, however low it may have seen?
Keith Law: My understanding is that the Mets did not make an offer. They did not have to do so because he declined to submit an MRI to MLB before the draft. Had he done that, they would have had to make a minimum offer to guarantee compensation in this draft if he didn’t sign. (which is a long way of saying the MRI program is unfair and anti-labor, but participating in it is better for the player than not.)

Guest: Is Dewon Brazelton Jr a prospect? Did you scout his father at all?
Keith Law: He was at NHSI. Looks a lot like his dad (who was before my time – saw him in the majors, not as a prospect). I don’t think Jr is a prospect, not now.

zuke: khalil greene comes to mind on players impacted my mental health.
Keith Law: Excellent one, yes. Clearly I should have you guys answer these questions.

Ed: Gordon Graceffo had the velo jump this spring. Short sample, but rolling in HighA.  Seems to be overqualified for that level.  Anything interesting there?
Keith Law: Yes, see my March scouting notebook that mentioned him.

Johhnycakes: James Triantos an MLB regular?
Keith Law: See the link in the last response.

Michael: College seasons are short and they use metal bats. So it’s SSS and has a huge variable. So how do you scout hitters there an feel that you are accurate?
Keith Law: You’re not scouting the stats, though. You use systems to handle statistical analysis. You scout the swing, the approach, the athleticism.
Keith Law: The metal bat is a problem, though.

Mike: Andrew Toles re. Mental health?
Keith Law: Schizophrenia, in fact. Talented, but not a very skilled prospect. The Dodgers continue to keep him under contract so he can have health insurance. That’s a kind thing that they’re doing and a sign that our country’s health care system is a fucking travesty.

Jim: Regarding mental health impacting a career, you could also make an argument for Jimmy Piersall, no?
Keith Law: Came to mind, but that is literally before my time, and I don’t know his story well at all.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Stay tuned for a draft ranking next week, going to 100 names, and then my first mock the week after that, probably going up on May 12th. I should have a draft notebook early in the week on some more players I’ve seen in person. Thank you all for reading, as always, and for your patience with the absence of these chats – Thursdays are often very busy for me and I’ve been traveling a bit more than usual. I’ll do more chats here and some Q&As on the Athletic too. Take care.

Subscribers to the Athletic can see my top 100 prospects ranking, ranking of all 30 farm systems, and top 20 prospects for every organization. I also have a new game review, the tableau-building game Subastral, over at Paste.

Keith Law: That’s right, here’s where the talkin’ ends. Klawchat.

TomBruno23: Moreno, Castellini, Kendrick, Illitch are quite a Mt. Rushmore
Keith Law: Yep. Kendrick and his wife are among the biggest donors to right-wing dark-money groups, along with Charles Koch and the Uihleins (boycott U-Line, folks). And we know where Moreno’s loyalties lie. It’s some of the strongest anti-labor voices in the country.

Dave F: Hi Keith. Can you explain again your resistance to a salary cap if MLB also had a salary floor? With the lucrative regional tv deals of bigger markets, it seems like they are able to buy out their mistakes and take on salary for a playoff push. I would think a salary floor would still get the Union what they want with higher wages and also level the playing field for teams, similar to the other major sports.
Keith Law: The cap does more to limit player incomes than the floor does to help it – and a floor doesn’t guarantee higher wages, either. Teams could easily reach the floor with one or two bloated deals for veterans. You want to raise wages? Make the minimum salary $1.5 million. Then the floor is automatically $39 million.

Dr. Bob: Greetings, Keith. Moneyball’s Michael Lewis tried to paint the analytics revolution as replacing traditional scouting. You have opposed that position and credited the work of scouts. So, here’s my question: Have the methods employed by scouts changed? If so, can you speak as to how?
Keith Law: Absolutely. Lewis was wrong – what analytics has done is changed the way teams evaluate players, including by empowering scouts to look at players in new ways while also helping streamline the process of figuring out who best to go see and when. Most scouts I know talk comfortably in the language of the analytics era, discussing spin rates and extension as much as they talk about feel and pitchability.

JT: I abandoned hockey once upon a time after it lost a season to a strike. I can’t even remember: 2003-4 or 2004-05. I only watched out of habit, an easy thing to fall into in Canada, esp. when you grew up with 3 channels and 2 were hockey some nights.

Does MLB not have any sense that it might lose similar casual fans?
Keith Law: No. I said on a radio hit in Jacksonville this morning (the Drill was the show) that MLB might be banking on the fact that live sports is one of the most coveted places for advertisers now, since people stream so much more content than they watch live. That could be driving the false confidence.

Ken (Cleveland): I know your more player than owner (understandably so for a multitude of reasons).  I’m curious, is there any specific position that you support the owners’ perspective of over the players?
Keith Law: In this current round, not that I’m aware of. They’re so focused on breaking the union that their policies seem aggressively geared to that end. Labor should earn its marginal revenue product. MLB doesn’t want to be subject to this general economic “law.”

Jim: Hey, Keith, hope you’re feeling better.  In the absence of anything constructive coming out of MLB, re you going to continue your “Keith answers x questions about Team Y’s farm system” interviews, or are they an ad hoc exercise?  Thanks as always.
Keith Law: I just did one for the Blue Jays today and will do one for the Angels in the next few days (Sam just sent the questions).

Kip: Thanks for all the great content over the last few weeks.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. Thank you all for reading and subscribing. Links to all the prospect content are up top.

Francisco: Hi Keith, Thanks for chatting. I would like to know your thoughts on Tommy White. Thanks !
Keith Law: Let’s see what happens in conference play. He wouldn’t be the first guy to go off against non-conference pitching and then come down to earth when the better pitching shows up.

JBisson: Hi, Keith. Thanks again for taking time out of your day to chat with us die-hards! I realize it might be difficult to narrow this down to one, but if you can, which player on your top 100 prospects lists do you believe has the widest range of potential outcomes?
Keith Law: I don’t think I could answer that off the cuff – I’d have to give it a lot of time and thought. Might be fodder for a future column or something.

Brutus Beefcake: Would you mind explaining why you didn’t vote for Billy Wagner for the HoF?  I don’t mean to suggest you needed to or should have–he seems very borderline–just that in your HoF column I didn’t see his name come up, and I was curious.
Keith Law: Not even close. He pitched less than anyone in the Hall of Fame – I don’t think there’s a HoF pitcher under 1000 innings, and he barely cracked 900.

Tony: I don’t know if you’ve gotten into the latest Alt-J album at all, but I found parts of it quite good while other parts sounded like the band was parodying itself. This isn’t a question, I guess, but I’ll hang up and listen, regardless.
Keith Law: I’m just out on them at this point. I agree with you that they’ve descended into a sort of parody of their earlier selves. They’ve certainly become less ambitious musically and lyrically, and seem more geared towards the commercial than ever before. It’s a shame; An Awesome Wave remains one of the most interesting and inventive albums I’ve ever heard.

Evan: Favorite restaurants in New Orleans
Keith Law: god, it’s been so long since I was there. I’m sure the best destinations have turned over a ton since then. I think the last time through I went to Cochon and/or Cochon Butcher, which were great.

Adam D.: Any under-the-radar college prospects on the west coast we should know about? I follow San Diego State and Cal pretty closely, but wondering who else I should be keeping an eye on. Thanks!
Keith Law: I think it’s too early to say. I’ll have a draft ranking up next week, hoping midweek after I make a quick trip to GA.

Condor: Chris Russo has been, not surprisingly, pro-clubs and pro-Manfred. He works for MLB and golfs with Manfred. Plus, if you differ from him, he yells over you.
Keith Law: Look at the voices who support owners right now and see who might pay some of their bills. A lot of them have ties to MLB (via TV or radio), or to individual clubs. Not all, certainly, but many do.

Gil: In your time w the Blue Jays were there ever any specific moves based solely on saving the owner money?
Keith Law: I mean, we traded Raul Mondesi just to get rid of his contract. I don’t think that’s that bad or unusual, though.

Steve F: Point of order: 2004-05 in the NHL was a lockout not a strike, and the owners locked the players out again in 2013.
Keith Law: Important distinction. Thank you.

Dr. Bob: Thanks. Follow up, please. Did most scouts at the time (1) resist the new ways and fade away, (2) slowly get on board, (3) quickly adapt to the changes?
Keith Law: I would be reluctant to make generalizations like that. I couldn’t possibly know enough people to give a fair and accurate answer.

Dave: Could a whole bunch of problems or “problems” (pace of play, lack of baserunners, pitching to strikeouts) be solved by changing walks to 3 balls? I’m sure there would be initial growing pains but it seems like a quick way to increase offense without weird shit like moving the mound back.
Keith Law: Eek. No thank you.

David: Hi Keith, When evaluating prospects for the Top 100 list, do you consider a person’s character as much as it can be known? For example, I know you’ve been a critical of the Pirates’ Ji-hwan Bae (and rightfully so). Would you exclude someone from your list if they had a history like his? Thanks!
Keith Law: Bae was on my Pirates list a year ago, with the note about his assault on his girlfriend. He wasn’t on it this year because I just don’t think he’s that good a player – beyond any considerations about whether he should be employed by the team.

Zac: The Jackson Jobe pick is a huge risk as you’ve pointed out, but what is his ceiling in compared to the Tigers other pitching “prospects” (Mize, Skubal, Manning)?
Keith Law: As high a ceiling as any of those guys, with the higher risk of zero return as well.

Sage: Thoughts on recent Jack McDowell interview about current state of MLB?
Keith Law: Didn’t hear it. Not sure I need to?

Anthony: I know its REALLY early as neither are draft eligible this year but do you have any thoughts on Tennessee RHP Chase Dollander and UCLA RHP Thatcher Hurd?
Keith Law: I almost never spend time looking into players who aren’t eligible. The audience for that information is close to nonexistent and it doesn’t support my draft coverage.

Jace: Is there any scenario where we get away from the performative dip-shittery that we saw at the SOTU, on Twitter, talk shows, etc or is this just who we are now?
Keith Law: I think this is who we are now. Those people do that stuff because it works. If you want a behavior to stop, don’t reinforce it with attention.

Nick: I know the MiLB players are not part of the union, but will the lockout impact the minor league season?
Keith Law: It shouldn’t. About 14 players will be missing from every system, because they’re on the 40 man and thus are locked out, but everyone else can play. MLB teams will have to decide what to do – do they sign some extra indy ball types or other older FAs to fill AAA rosters, or promote players in the system and backfill in low A with guys who’d be in extended or some undrafted college seniors from 2021?

Mike: Why you gotta rank everything and make lists ?  What put things in box?
Keith Law: Gotta give the people what they want!

Jace: Austin Eats beyond Franklin BBQ? Qui is closed
Keith Law: I have to look up one place, stand by…
Keith Law: Better Half! I always forget its name. Loved that place. Backspace pizza was solid. People rave about Interstellar BBQ; I haven’t been, and Texas Q is tough for me since i stopped eating cow about five years ago.

Insert Witty Name Here: Keith, been reading you since time immemorial. You were always open with mental health and your struggles with it. Two parter: 1) How have you been doing? 2) Do you think the national conversation regarding mental health is doing a good job communicating and educating on causes and conditions of mental health?
Keith Law: Thank you for asking. I’m doing well, I think. I’m in therapy regularly, and I at least know what I need to work on, and what I need to do to take care of myself. I’m exercising again, as the weather allows, which will only get easier going forward (we belong to a gym, but I will take running outside over the treadmill any day now that I’ve gotten accustomed to it). Any conversation about mental health is a good conversation, but there’s still too little understanding and way too many opinions from people who don’t have the background or knowledge to insert themselves into that conversation.

Guest: Would there be a different attitude among the owners if the owners had to answer any specific labor issues to the media themselves instead of having the commissioner do it?
Keith Law: Probably. Also, we assume the owners are monolithic. I guarantee you there are at least two or three saying, “just strike a deal, we don’t care, we’re making plenty of money even if we take the players’ last offer!” But we don’t hear that – we hear one voice.

Romorr: I think it’s funny when Oriole fans harp on rankings. I looked at your list and came away thinking, I need to pay more attention to Joey Ortiz. Same with Gillaspie.
Keith Law: I think it’s funny too. When someone accuses a national writer of bias against a team, they’re telling on themselves, not the writer.

Deeeedeeee: What new films are you looking forward to this year?
Keith Law: I have to admit i don’t track what’s coming, unless I happen to catch a trailer. We’re still catching up on 2021 – we have four BP nominees left to see, and all five international nominees as well.

chauncey: thoughts on the lockout?
Keith Law: I mean, could you narrow it down a bit?

JT: I don’t only subscribe to the Athletic for you, but I definitely value having access to your writing a whole lot. Keep passing this along to your editors.
Keith Law: Thank you! I wouldn’t expect anyone to subscribe just for me, or if they did, they’d probably realize we have a lot of great writers.

Phil: Is it fair for Lia Thomas to compete in Ivy League women’s swimming?
Keith Law: Yes. She’s a woman.

Nick X: Have you ever listed to a musical artist who was on Top-40 radio?
Keith Law: Is top 40 radio still a thing? Anyway, yes, of course. I grew up listening to top 40 radio – literally, in the case of America’s Top 40.

TacoCharlton: hattie b’s or princes for Nashville hot chicken ?
Keith Law: I tried Hattie B’s for the first time last year and really liked it, but I also think my limitations in that department are pretty clear. I was not made to eat really spicy foods.
Keith Law: Like, I think chili particles show up in my sweat after I eat it.

addoeh: Still out on Top Chef?  New season started last night.
Keith Law: Well, after they glossed over an alleged sexual harasser winning last season, I haven’t felt the call to return to watching. Are they hawking NFTs now too?

TacoCharlton: What are your go-to sides at bbq place ? Get pecan pie ?
Keith Law: Fried okra, if they have it.

Paul: Random question but are you loyal to a specific airline and hotel chain in order to increase your status/upgrades with a particular company? Or do your employers just book you on whatever flight they can.
Keith Law: I am, not for status purposes but to collect points for personal travel.

Anthony: I kind of struggle with believing in Chase DeLauter but given his ranking I seem to be in the minority. Does him not facing top competition on a regular basis make his evaluation tougher? When he actually did play a team with a solid amount of talent he did not do well.
Keith Law: Florida State’s two main lefties depantsed him – and word got around. He’s going to go in the first round, I think, but people are aware of the very issue you raise.

bobby: You’re need to lift heavy waits broseph.
Keith Law: This has to be a joke.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: I know you’ve discussed this elsewhere, but lost track between your chats, articles, and tweets:  where do you stand on the three proposed rule changes for a pitch clock, larger bases, and no shifts?
Keith Law: Pitch clock is a double-edged sword – it may increase some pitcher injuries. Banning the shift is stupid. I have no opinion on the bases.

Matt: You may have addressed this before, but with Sal Perez under contract for 4 more years, could you see the Royals breaking MJ Melendez in in some sort of hybrid role where he’s the backup catcher and plays somewhere else in the field other days? I know these things tend to work themselves out, but Melendez is essentially knocking on the door at this point and Sal’s not going anywhere!
Keith Law: I did, in fact, address it right here in my Q&A with our own Alec Lewis.

mss: Your’re telling me you don’t eat Italian Sausage !?!!
Keith Law: I do if it’s pork, which it should be.

stixx23: Do you think we will see a woman play in the major leagues in our lifetime (say, next 30-40 years)?
Keith Law: I’d give you about even money odds on that. She’ll face discrimination at every possible step, though.

Paul: Given everything going on – would it make sense for Biden to come out today and announce another massive infrastructure/energy bill? One that in the short term, yes increases the amount of drilling for fossil fuels, but longer term projects of nuclear plants in WV, wind farms in the midwest and solar farms in the southwest? Surely if there is ever a chance for us to break free from our dependence on autocratic petrostates this would be our last best chance?
Keith Law: Agreed. It could even force some Big Oil advocates in Congress to take a stand on the issue – would they turn down a short-term investment in our petroleum industry to score a political point?

Dave: Any sense of how teams are planning to handle April for prospects on the cusp of the bigs, but not on the 40-man? Thinking of Greene and Tork with the Tigers specifically, but I think Julio Rodriguez fits that bill too. Start them at AAA? Keep them around for big league camp?
Keith Law: There is no big league camp, right? So they’ll go play in AAA. Not the perfect outcome but a good enough one.

TomBruno23: We have discussed him before in the chat, especially in regards to graduating HS early and enrolling at Vandy…what is going on with Christian Little pitching in middle relief this season?
Keith Law: Is he just another kid who enrolled in college early only to end up worse off? Nate Savino looked like he’d be one of those guys, but he’s had two good starts in non-conference play for UVA.

Mike: Have you read any of Erik Larson’s books? They seem up your alley.  Also just finished A Gentleman in Moscow by Amor Towles that had a very “Confederacy of Dunces” vibe.
Keith Law: I have not; I read part of Devil in the White City and his emphasis on the lurid aspects of the HH Holmes half of the story really turned me off. I have zero interest in that.

TomBruno23: What can I, as a schmuck living in St. Louis County, Missouri, do to help the Ukrainians? Donate to organizations and, if so, which ones?
Keith Law: I gave to World Central Kitchen, Jose Andres’ nonprofit.

Omead: Will Jeren Kendall ever figure it out?
Keith Law: I highly doubt it.

JT: There’s no hope left for the GOP now. How does America play out over the next decade? How far from democracy will your country descend?
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s a bottom. We are headed towards a theocracy, in a country that is becoming more secular all the time.

Tim: One of the players’ main grievances is that some teams are not trying hard enough to compete. In that vein, aren’t deadline trades problematic? How is it good for competition when bad teams send good players to good teams for the last two months of the season, leading to greater competitive disparity? Max Scherzer hates “tanking,” but he was happy to abandon the listing Nats for the already loaded Dodgers. It seems hypocritical.
Keith Law: I don’t see this parallel at all, sorry.

Guest: Is this the hardest year to rank prospects given how atypical the development path has been for so many in the last two years? e.g. Ed Howard might suck or might just have a huge learning curve due to time off
Keith Law: Last winter was harder, with almost no new information available on players. At least this past cycle, we could discuss 2021 performance and scouting reports, with the caveat that the lost 2020 season affected different players in different ways. I would counsel all fans to be more open-minded on players who struggled in 2021 than they might have in previous years.

Aaron G: Please, won’t you think of the owners? You’re such a shill for the players, some of whom might even play in the majors for a few years at minimum salary!
Keith Law: There’s a weird group of Twitter accounts who love to run around calling anyone who advocates for the players’ positions a “Boras shill” or something similar. It seems artificial – like someone spoonfed them that phrase.

Nels: Am i wrong to be a little annoyed at some of the reporting that went on in Florida last week? There was a lot of over-dramatization of people walking across parking lots and at the end of the day the reporting was filtered through PR anyways. Not sure I saw the point of a lot of it.
Keith Law: It ended up much ado about nothing but I assume there was value in having people on the ground there in case the two sides had struck a deal.

Anthony: I know injuries to pitchers definitely vary player to player but given how some college teams really overwork their pitchers, is it fair to be wary of said teams in terms of projecting their starters for overuse? (UCLA comes to mind as relatively recent starters like James Kaprielian and Griffin Canning have definitely struggled with health)
Keith Law: I know teams consider this. There were several Rice pitchers who were drafted later than they might have been from other schools because the whole industry knew that, under Graham, Rice pitchers got hurt a ton.

Nick X: My buddy Joe F. once got schooled by you on Twitter in a Pete Rose debate.  We were roasting him about it recently and he claims he won because MLB promotes gambling now.  We already made fun of that point but would you care to roast him one last time? We’d truly appreciate it
Keith Law: I’m pretty sure MLB doesn’t promote its own players gambling. That’s kind of the key difference, no?

Jasper: Ever had overnight oats ?
Keith Law: I just can’t get into them. I have tried it, but despite the fact that I like almost anything with oats in it (okay, perhaps not haggis), I find oatmeal pretty boring. It needs way more salt than most people put in it – it’s a grain, like rice, not a ‘cereal’ like Lucky Charms.

TomBruno23: My lovely state of MO is considering a bill that will finally legalize sports gambling but only in casinos and inside pro sports stadiums. Cannot make this shit up.
Keith Law: Sure. Follow the money and see who funded those legislators.

John: You’ve often referred in passing to your belief that a drafted HS player should go ahead and sign, rather than going to college. I apologize if you’ve done this and I missed it, but can you elaborate? I suspect part of your opinion is based on MLB’s scholarship for players after they stop playing. But considering that scholarship is taxable income (still valuable, but effectively not a full scholarship), is there a certain level in the later rounds of the draft where the player should consider going to college instead?
Keith Law: It’s a generalization, but yes, the scholarship plan is a big part of it, as is the need to capitalize right now in case your value as a player is peaking. The blanket assumption that all players will be better at 21 than they were at 18 is not accurate. Guys get hurt. Guys plateau, or regress. Guys get out of shape. They flunk out of school, or get in trouble. Sometimes you peak at 18. I’m not a Bruce Springsteen fan but isn’t that the whole point of that insipid song?

Sage: Any interest in coming to Chicago’s pizza fest?  
https://chicagopizzafestival.com/
Keith Law: Are they serving actual pizza, or just the thing they call “pizza” in chicago?

Daniel: Does Will Smith or Diego Cartaya have the versatility to play a different position? Seems that will have to come up soon
Keith Law: Cross that bridge when you get there – which I think is at least two years away.

TomBruno23: What are your thoughts, if any (I guess some if you post this Q) about Jeter leaving the Marlins?
Keith Law: I really don’t know what the cause was, which leaves me feeling like there’s little I can say of value here. I did point out that Jeter brought Gary Denbo and some other people over from the Yankees, and I don’t know if their job status was tied to him at all.

Dr. Bob: It seems to me that the guys who might really benefit from the lockout are guys who were probably going to be called up this year but aren’t yet on the 40-man roster. They’ll get a normal ST and then play in AAA to show how they’re advancing. Then when play starts, they’ll be ready.
Keith Law: Quite possible, and then maybe they get a full year of service out of the shortened season?

Matt: Honest question, not intended to be confrontational. Is there any political issue that you lean right (or even moderate) on? You seem to take a very left, progressive position on every issue I’ve seen discussed.
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s accurate at all; I take pro-science, evidence-based positions. I believe in the separation of church and state, as the Establishment Clause of our Constitution guarantees. I believe that tax policies should be guided by evidence on what is likely to do the most economic good, and that using the tax code to guide behaviors is, at least, not always good policy, and often amounts to paternalism. (A tobacco tax to fund health care may make economic sense; a tobacco tax to deter people from smoking may not, and do I really care if you smoke yourself to death as long as I’m not trying to eat over here?) I think your inaccurate impression is a framing problem: When the “right” is this far from the center, rational, evidence-based ideas may seem “left.”

David: For the reader who asked about New Orleans food, I can vouch for Cochon. I still remember the ribs, pickled watermelon and iced tea that I got there.
Keith Law: Glad to hear they’re still going.

Mike P: Isn’t it sad that we consider things like acknowledging the threat of climate change, making it easier rather than harder for people to vote and allowing women to control their own reproductive rights to be “liberal” or “progressive,” and not mainstream?
Keith Law: Or accepting what scientists have known for a half a century, that gender and biological sex are not binary? Or that vaccines are safe and effective, which is backed by a hundred years of evidence?

Brian: We’ve officially hit the point where Tucker Carlson is demanding to see the LSAT’s of the first ever African-American female Supreme Court nominee (which even potting aside the obvious and not subtle racism is stupid for about 10000 different reasons) because he can’t possibly believe a black woman would be smart. But hey teaching CRT is still clearly the biggest issue in this country (eye roll)
Keith Law: I think 90% of the CRT “debate” was astroturfed bullshit designed to rally the right’s base, but there’s 10% “we don’t want to teach kids how bad our history is” so they don’t realize how racist that Carlson thing was.

stixx23: Following up on my Q about the first female player. Any thoughts on a more likely position? Reliever seems the easiest path (don’t have to hit usually and could be a specialist – lefty, knuckler, etc.) especially since it would take an exceptional talent to overcome the “horror” of a “girl” replacing a position player on the roster.
Keith Law: Pitcher. Not sure whether the role matters necessarily and they’d never have to it. Why couldn’t a woman develop the arm strength to throw 90-92 and get high spin rates on a breaking ball?

Insert Witty Name Here: no question I just find this funny: this guy at work agrees with every single principle that Bernie says, but still claims he’s a conservative.
Keith Law: That is funny.

Nick: Do you enjoy Brandywine coffee from Wilmington? They have it at my local shop in Detroit, and I find it to be quite delicious..
Keith Law: They sell it in Detroit? Crazy. We can walk to one of their shops (Brew Ha-ha) and I think as local coffee shops go they’re solid. I do prefer the coffee from Re-Animator in Philly, as my nearby options go, though.

Paul: To respond to the earlier question about leaning right – eliminating tariffs (lower manufacturing costs) and having looser immigration policies (lower labor costs) have, from my understanding, been at least right wing from an economic perspective. (I may be wrong that those are two positions of yours, but I thought I read a previous chat where you were in support of eliminating tariffs.)                                  With today’s republican party though – who the f- knows.
Keith Law: Agreed. I’ve always advocated for open immigration. Most economists will tell you tariffs are bad. I’d certainly oppose federal or state wage/price controls. I don’t agree with the idea of government ownership of industry, which is, you know, what actual socialism is. (Ask anyone who throws that word around as a pejorative to define it. Fun will ensue.)

Mike P: Knowing how strongly you feel about climate change and fossil fuels’ unmistakeable contribution to it, I’m surprised that you are OK with even a short-term nod to that industry on more investment. Don’t mean to be rude or antagonistic, just a bit confused.
Keith Law: I’m a pragmatist. And if we do nothing, and then the GOP takes over again in 2024, the long-term damage to the planet may be irreversible. If passing an energy bill like that now creates some positive change, while also decreasing the changes of a right-wing autocracy coming, so much the better.

Jay’s friend: Does Jay Allen have 30/30 .300/.400 CF potential? Possible top 20 end of year? What could stop him from reaching his ceiling?
Keith Law: I’ll send you to my Reds top 20 for the answer to that. What could stop him = what could stop 95% of HS position player prospects: We have to see how he hits decent pro pitching.

Greg: If Jeter had played a different position (more adequately than SS I mean), would he have been a surefire Hall of Famer?
Keith Law: If he’d been an average defender at third base for 20 years? Probably.
Keith Law: Might actually improve his statistical case, at least.

Insert Witty Name Here: Any thoughts on the possibility that analytics are the root cause of the current labor strife? I know owners always repressed salaries, but once the really smart people got into the FO, the shift of player salaries for really skewed.  So basically this is all your fault? /s
Keith Law: I don’t buy that argument at all. The owners were always going to find a way to win more while paying players less. Analytics were just another tool. If it wasn’t that, it would have been something else.

Clay, Rutherford: What can MLB do differently to expand the game to Europe and develop more quality players? A handful of their teenagers get signed every year, though most are released before they even graduate from the complex leagues. I know Mike Piazza manages the Italian National Team; more involvement from MLB veterans seems like a good place to start.
Keith Law: I joked on Twitter a week ago that MLB players who are locked out should go play overseas to stay ready while also growing the game. Imagine if Xander Bogaerts and Didi Gregorius went to play in the Honkbal Hoofdklasse for a month – crowds would swell, it’d be front-page news, and even though everyone would know they were leaving in a few weeks, it would help expose the sport more in that country. (Gregorius was born there, and Bogaerts is a Dutch citizen as an Aruba native.) There are smaller leagues all over the world, some of which only play in the MLB offseason, but many of which play now. Send a few to Italy, a few to Germany, a few to Czechia, a few to China, and so on. It’d be a bit of a goodwill tour. I know the counterarguments – if a player gets hurt, then what happens – but from a top-down perspective, I think it would do so much good for the sport.
Keith Law: That’s all for today. Thank you all again for reading. I’ll have my first MLB draft content for 2022 up next week – I hope a top 30 ranking plus some notes on Jones and Johnson, if the weather is more favorable this time around. In the meantime, you can see all of my pro prospect rankings content here, on this handy index page. Stay safe everyone.

It’s been too long, so let’s do one more of these before the holiday.

Keith Law: It was Christmas Eve (Eve), babe … in the Klawchat…

Joe: For the Eppler and Showalter hires, fair to say they are bad process, but good result?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. Eppler, maybe a bad process, but a great result. Showalter is a terrible process leading to a bad result. The owner saw the red flags, and ignored them. They may win a few more games this year, maybe even advance in the playoffs (although Showalter doesn’t have a great playoff track record), but the internal personnel cost will supersede that.

Hank: At what point in the lockout will we have to worry about a delayed season and/or missed games?
Keith Law: If the players can get in 3 weeks of spring training, we won’t miss regular season games.

Mac: If Carter Young cuts down on the swing could he go in the top half of the first round?
Keith Law: Cuts down on the strikeouts, yes. Right now, he’s Logan Davidson, at best, which is the very back of the round.

Evar: Best guess…who is the fastest player to even play in MLB?
Keith Law: Billy Hamilton.

Bruce: Is it feasible for the Phillies to use Stott at SS starting in 2022, both from the is he ready to hit in MLB side and also can he succeed as a SS long-term and improve their defense?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: On what evidence would you say he’s ready to hit in the majors right now? I mean, it’s possible that he is, but the evidence doesn’t seem to suppor that.

addoeh: Least favorite household chore?  Washing the dishes is the worst for me.
Keith Law: Don’t mind that. I hate chores that don’t produce a visible or tangible result. Wash the dishes? Clean dishes, clean sink, clean counters. That’s sufficient psychic reward for me.
Keith Law: Laundry, vacuuming, ironing – all produce a visible result. I don’t mind those. I actually like ironing. I get in the flow of that one. For least favorite … I mean, weeding produces a tangible result, but it’s endless.

Chris: What’d you think about Jerry dipoto’s comment about trying Julio in centerfield some this year?
Keith Law: Not out of the question. I don’t think he’s a CF long-term, but sounds like he could handle it on a part-time basis now.

Ethan: There was talk of Heaney having a Robbie Ray like breakout in LA. Buying it?
Keith Law: There is a lot of space between Andrew Heaney 2021 and Robbie Ray 2021. I’ll take something in the middle.

Molly: What should we expect from a full MLB season from Joey Bart?
Keith Law: 20+ homers, some walks, low average, OBP in the low .300s, plus defense.

Skrip: Is Ted Cruz actually serious about running for president in ’24? Or is this yet another blatant attempt to keep himself in the news as often as possible? I’d sooner vote for Big Bird as governor of Texas.
Keith Law: If you’d asked me in 2014 if Trump was serious about running for President in ’16, I would have said it was a blatant attempt to keep himself in the news, and he’d never win. I overestimated the country.

Johnny Utah: I really wanted to listen to your interview with Alton Brown but I boycotted your podcast because you gave Julie DiCaro a platform. She’s literally the worst. Literally.
Keith Law: I’ve never interviewed Alton Brown, and you’re a moron. Fuck off.

Dana: Can Gallo handle a season in CF if the Yanks sign/acquire a corner OFer?
Keith Law: I think he can handle the defense, but worry about him being healthy and productive if he’s playing 150 games there.

Aaron Rodgers Family: We told you he was nuts.
Keith Law: He’s about two webcast interviews away from endorsing Q.

Tom: What’s your Favorite Alcoholic Holiday Beverage?
Keith Law: I don’t drink anything different around the holidays, unless there’s homemade eggnog around, but I haven’t made that in years because no one drinks it from me.

Brenden: Critical race theory gets a lot of attention. But I haven’t been able to find a good read on what it actually is in practice that isn’t coming from a political angle. What is a good source I can learn more about it?
Keith Law: I’d go back to Kimberlée Crenshaw, who coined the term, for her definitions. She also gave a great interview with Vanity Fair this summer about the made-up controversy around CRT. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/07/how-critical-race-theory-maste…

Troy: Is Keston Huira fixable offensively?
Keith Law: Yes, but someone has to undo whatever the Brewers did to his swing. He looks like he’s swinging an axe, but upside down.

JR: Were you surprised how many deals were completed before the lockout? Wouldn’t both sides have an incentive to wait and see what new CBA looked like? Or the uncertainty made the existing rules more appealing?
Keith Law: I was – but your second question might be right. Maybe both sides just wanted to lock in what they could.

Matt: Why did free agents sign deals if they knew they were gonna be locked out? Aren’t they missing out on what’s probably gonna be more money in a new CBA?
Keith Law: We don’t know that. What if the minimum salary goes up by 80-100%, so there’s relatively less money going around for veterans.

Don: Do you buy that the Sox didn’t give the qualifying offer to Rodon as a favor to him? Or did they just mess up?
Keith Law: They know his arm better than anyone.

JR: You were about the only one I saw to note how little sense Thor’s signing was for both sides. Thor wants to rebuild value and stay healthy; LAA will push him hard to make playoffs and will have no incentive to limit his innings if they are in contention late. Seems like a potential for both sides to end up regretting it.
Keith Law: Agreed.

section 34: Who is the Carson Wentz of baseball?
Keith Law: I’m sorry, your question was intercepted on its way to the chat.

xxx(yyy): favorite Christmas cookie?
Keith Law: We make tricolor cookies, sometimes called 7-layer cookies (wrong, there should only be chocolate on one side) or rainbow cookies (wrong, unless your rainbow has three colors) or Italian flag cookies (I’ll allow it). They’re such an endeavor that we almost never do it any other time.

Brian: What’s the early timeline on offseason prospect list updates?
Keith Law: If you’re asking when my prospect lists will come out, we are aiming for January 31st.

Matt: Did you know the “War on Christmas” started when southern evangelicals complained to Ronald Reagan that they didn’t like people saying Merry X-mas, and not Merry Christmas. The Right ran with it for 40 years and here we are.
Keith Law: Anyone who falls for the “war on christmas” nonsense probably also thinks we’re teaching critical race theory in kindergarten and that vaccine mandates are communism. Also, the real threat to christmas is the inexorable decline of religiosity in developed nations. Good luck with that one!

xxx(yyy): 2021s best new cookbook?
Keith Law: Nik Sharma’s The Flavor Equation.

Jason: When are players no longer part of the union? When they officially retire? I’m mainly curious about retired players who now work for teams
Keith Law: You’re in the union if you’re on a 40-man roster. That’s it.

Adam D.: If the reports are true that the Giants are no enamored enough with the current free agents to hand out any nine-figure deals, do you agree with Farhan and company sticking to that process, or do you feel like a big-market team like the Giants owe it to the fanbase to make a splashy move?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with the idea that a team has to mollify a fanbase with a deal they think isn’t good from a baseball perspective.

Chris: Keith, have you had a chance to scout Boston’s Brayan Bello? Does he have the ceiling of a MLB Starting Pitcher in a system thin (barren?) on SP prospects?
Keith Law: Reliever risk there for sure. I don’t think he’s their most likely big-league starter.

Dave: True or False. Trump endorsing the vaccine will begin the MAGA backlash against him
Keith Law: Already has, no?
Keith Law: The cognitive dissonance around that one will be enough to cloud out the sun for weeks.

Joshua: As a Nats fan, is there any chance that Victor Robles becomes even close to the top 10 prospect player many thought he would become? Or is it time to maybe trade him and let him get a clean start? Thanks.
Keith Law: Not until he starts hitting the ball harder.

Don: Andrew Vaughn and Garrett Crochet for Matt Olson? Who says no?
Keith Law: Why would the White Sox do that? If Vaughn is what they believed him to be on Draft Day, he’ll become Olson or better.

Matt: If pitching velocities keep going up, doesn’t there reach a point where hitters can’t hit?
Keith Law: They can’t go much higher than they are now, but also, we’ve learned that hitters can hit 100 mph+ if they can figure out when it’s coming.

JR: Did you get to meet Lauren Mayberry in person when you saw her on tour recently (if so, you’re a lucky bastard)? Or did your podcast not result in an in person invite? PS – I caught the tour in Vegas, show was excellent. I was glad they didn’t have the guys sing a song, like they did last time I saw them live lol.
Keith Law: We did not, alas, but the show was still wonderful.

Joe: The Cubs keep saying they’re going to “spend intelligently,” which is probably a euphemism for “continue to be cheap.” But with their resources and lack of long term commitments, wouldn’t Correa be the most intelligent way to spend?
Keith Law: They spent on Stroman, so they weren’t cheap on that one.

Joshua: What type of ceiling do you believe Cole Henry has? He looked pretty good in the AFL (or so I’ve heard because I saw none of the AFL haha).
Keith Law: He’s had so many injuries already that his probability of staying a starter isn’t that high.

Grant: Do you see Congress enabling section 3 of the 14th amendment if Trump officially announces his intent to run?
Keith Law: I doubt they have the courage.

Cormac: Read Blood Meridian yet? Thoughts?
Keith Law: Yes, maybe 10 years ago. Great novel if you can stomach the violence.

Tom: D-backs will have a top ___ farm system after the 2022 draft.
Keith Law: Depends on who they take, no?

Appa Yip Yip: Rewild your lawn throw down clover and wildflowers. Grass is for suckers.
Keith Law: Better for the environment, too. Just not sure the neighbors would be cool with that.

JR: Toronto had Ray on their team for a year, so probably knew him better than anyone and essentially elected to give Gausman (a year older than Ray) the same money Ray got (OK, Ray got $5MM more), but does this alarm you at all? Obviously we don’t know Ray’s mindset (maybe he was adamant about not going back to Tor), but  wouldn’t you rather have Ray at 5/115, then Gausman at 5/110?
Keith Law: Would you? I’m not sure I would. It’s at least extremely close, to the point that I would not draw any conclusions from Toronto’s choice here.

Dude: Thoughts on Buxton signing? They do a good job of meeting in middle?
Keith Law: Yes, and I like the idea of him staying with the Twins, and the Twins potentially getting his MVP-level years, too.

Sedona: Did you get to watch Owen White at the AZL?  He was awarded as the best pitcher and seems like he has the tools.  Do you think he’s a legit rotation arm?  Ceiling?
Keith Law: Saw him, he looked good, and it’s great to see him healthy. Further than that, you’ll have to wait for the prospect rankings.

xxx(yyy): favorite Christmas movie?
Keith Law: Muppet Christmas Carol, obviously.

Mike: Keith, what did you think of the Red Sox trade with the Brewers?
Keith Law: Yawn. Binelas does hit the ball very hard, at least.

Turner: You have mentioned in your system rankings that the Orioles need to be much better on the international signings, when is a realistic time to check in and see if they have made improvements on that front?
Keith Law: They’re not there yet, at least. That takes years, maybe 4-5 years after you first reinvest in that side of the business, since you have to strike oral agreements with players when they’re 13 or 14 years old.

Ml: Is Ryan mountcastle a good enough hitter to be valuable despite his lack of defense?
Keith Law: To be more than replacement level? Yes. To be consistently above-average? Given his lack of defense and lack of patience, no, not yet.

Uncle Aaron: Weren’t you on track to have a HOF vote at one point?
Keith Law: I’ve had one for three years already.

John: Do you see Triston Casas eventually developing significantly more power?
Keith Law: I’d bet on yes.

Dude: Haven’t seen any Jud Fabian talk on ‘22 draft boards. Is there ANY chance he goes higher than last year?
Keith Law: Slim chance. The guy struck out at an excessive rate and couldn’t make adjustments.

John: The Brandon Walter emergence is interesting.  Considering that he was in your backyard in college, was ever on your radar?
Keith Law: Never. Not a prospect out of HS, of course. Missed his junior year with TJ, and wasn’t throwing this hard as a senior at UD.

JJ: Jesus was never vaccinated!
Keith Law: I mean, he also died at 33, so perhaps that’s not the W you think it is…

R. Mann: Have you ever heard the NYPD choir sing “Galway Bay”? It. Is. Stunning.
Keith Law: Only the Bing Crosby version.

Pat: How worried should Mets fans be about Showalter’s track record with young pitchers. Granted, they’re trying to win now & it won’t affect DeGrom & Max,, but, if he pulls the same idiocy that he pulled in Baltimore, it’ll affect them down the line.
Keith Law: Do they have any young starters to worry about? The system is heavily weighted towards bats right now, they don’t have a young starter in the potential OD rotation right now, and by the time someone like Matt Allan is on the radar, Buck will either have won a WS or been fired.

Henry: Thoughts on Joan Didion? Saddened about her passing.
Keith Law: Likewise. I feel like she’s remembered more for her novels and memoirs and not enough for her feature writing in the 1970s.

Curious in Seattle: Best guess on Harry Ford’s long term position?  Enough bat for the outfield?
Keith Law: Catcher.

Bob: Will the IFA date be pushed back if the lockout is still in effect, as expected?
Keith Law: Shouldn’t affect that.

Fradog: Why are Jays fascinated with Biggio? Can he play 2B at MLB level?
Keith Law: 1. I don’t know. 2. Not well.

Matt: Do you think Schilling gets in? Im seeing an alarming number of public votes for him.
Keith Law: Don’t know. I didn’t vote for him.

Heather: Did you have a reaction to everybody and their dog getting into the HOF a couple of weeks ago?
Keith Law: That process has become a farce. It’s largely invalidated the writers’ votes. Jim Kaat was never a Hall of Famer. Neither was Harold Baines. The players and managers on the committees are just putting in their buddies.

John: As a lefty who loves to cook, how do you feel about the municipalities banning gas stoves in new construction?
Keith Law: Sucks for cooking, but the environmental damage wrought by fracking is no joke.

JR: Have/will you watch new Spiderman or Matrix movies? Or not your thing?
Keith Law: Zero interest in the Matrix movie. I only watched the first one and thought it was fine but incredibly derivative.

Fradog: Can Espinal be MLB avg for Jays? Love the glove but not sold on bat.
Keith Law: Great extra player. Not a regular for me. Same reason you said.

ChrisP: I had someone go off about “big pharma” and how it’s impacting society…and it just made me think that these people have no idea what the reason is behind people living longer today than 100 years ago. It’s just this big elusive “evil” thing to them.
Keith Law: It’s something they read on Facebook, not something they understand. There’s this sort of magical thinking about the human body that occupies most of the people who oppose Big Pharma … sometimes it’s a religious belief, sometimes it’s a false appeal to nature, sometimes it’s just ignorance, thinking the body is like a car or other machine that behaves predictably in response to treatments. We’re just not smart.

Sedona: Out of Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson and Brandon Pfaadt…. which ones has the best chance to be a mid rotation arm?
Keith Law: That will certainly be answered in the Dbacks top 20 in January.

Cubbie Blue: Reginald Preciado, Kevin Alcantara, and James Triantos seemed to be getting a lot of buzz in short season ball.   You find them at least interesting as well?
Keith Law: I definitely answered that in the Rizzo trade writeup and Prospect of the Year columns.

John: This might seem like an odd question, but if you had a chance to do it again in the present day, would you go to Harvard again?  I hold the Ivy League schools in high regard, but depending on your major, I’d bet you might get a slightly better education at one of the top liberal arts schools.  (No bias — my alma mater is not in either category.)
Keith Law: Yes, because of the value of the name, and the power of the school’s network. But I agree I would have gotten a better education at a smaller school, and probably would have enjoyed it more.

Chris: What do you think about sports leagues shortening quarantine rules for vaccinated players who test positive?
Keith Law: As long as that’s based on the latest evidence, sure.

Chris: Just FYI I watched new Matrix last night and it was pretty terrible.  And I liked the first 3 (esp the first 2)
Keith Law: I’m not shocked. Fan service films/books usually aren’t very good.

Chris: i know youre usually *yawn* about the R5 draft, but im still having Whitlock PTSD, do you think someone could take Josh Breaux as DH/3rd C and I’d watch him bash homers?
Keith Law: Doubt that one.
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s that good and I don’t think he gets taken/kept.
Keith Law: Maria Torres wrote up a list of some Rule 5 candidates, and while I wouldn’t select all of those guys if I were a GM, there were some good names on there. Gilberto Jimenez is the best prospect who was left unprotected: https://theathletic.com/3020049/2021/12/16/a-rule-5-draft-candidate-fr…

Jenna: I know you have no interest in this whatsoever, but I’d seriously vote for you for president. Thoroughly impressed with your ideas, common sense, analytical abilities, virtually everything you opine. This country would be better off, I have no doubt.
Keith Law: Thank you, but that job would destroy me. I’m not cut out for that line of work, even assuming I could get more than my immediate family to vote for me.

Appa Yip Yip: My favourite thing (I hate it) about the people complaining about big pharma vaccines is that treatment is orders of magnitudes more profitable than prevention. Big pharma would love nothing more than to sell monoclonal antibody treatments in perpetuity to unvaxxed idiots.
Keith Law: Or a pill you have to take every day for the rest of your life. That’s the business model, and it’s why we have far more treatments for things like depression or high cholesterol or ADHD, even in the absence of clear evidence of efficacy, and fewer new antibiotics.

Jay: I watched the Veterans’ Committee HOF announcement on the MLB Network.  All of the announcers, without exception, acted like it was Babe Ruth, Walter Johnson, and Satchel Paige finally getting the call.  Are the announcers told to keep it upbeat, and to keep any dissenting opinions of HOF unworthiness to the themselves?
Keith Law: State Television.

Yinka Double Dare: Less perturbed at getting rid of gas ranges now that there’s an alternative to the electric coils, which are horrid. Induction ranges do pretty well for changing your temp quickly more like gas, although you have to get compatible cookware.
Keith Law: Which is a big expense for most people.

Joe: A lot of HOF voters have tied themselves in knots making excuses not to vote for anyone they can loosely tie to PEDs in any way. Now the same guys are tying themselves in knots trying to explain why it’s not hypocritical to vote for David Ortiz on the first ballot. It’s almost like it was never really about PEDs, and was just about keeping out the guys they didn’t like personally.
Keith Law: No question. If you vote for Ortiz, and not A-Rod, you’ve dropped the curtain.

John: I learned from my aunt last night that there is an underworld of children being farmed for their adrenaline.  News you can use.
Keith Law: Do they do that in pizzeria basements?

CY: I know it’s early, but thoughts on Druw Jones or Elijah Green for the Rangers at #3?
Keith Law: There are a lot of other players in this draft class. Those are just the most famous ones.

Sedona: Do you think Mize becomes a #2 starter?
Keith Law: Yes. I’m still a fan, even though we haven’t seen what I thought we’d see from him when he was first drafted.

Nick: In reference to your Eric Davis response as to players you wanted to see without injury…is Buxton on that trajectory?
Keith Law: I certainly hope not.

Tom: Think with emerging SP’s bailey ober and Joey Ryan, that the twins can emerge to be competitive in 2022?
Keith Law: I don’t believe those guys are the answer.

Tom: Anything to Jon Singleton getting buff this offseason? Are you buying him?
Keith Law: Meh. He’d be a great story, but the odds are well against him.

Sedona: Trevor Story’s away stats are atrocious.  Especially last year.  How much will teams take this into consideration when offering what seams will be a long term deal
Keith Law: Most Rockies hitters have had large home/road splits that have closed at least partway when they left Denver.

Adam: Growing up did kids ever sing “ i fought the law and the law won”?
Keith Law: Not really. I’m the wrong age for that. Lot of “Breaking the Law,” though.

Dude: Hamilton’s faster than Gore?
Keith Law: I’ve timed both guys multiple times and Hamilton was consistently faster home to first.

Guest: Should the dodgers move will smith   off of catcher? If so, which position?
Keith Law: Why?
Keith Law: Like, did something happen with Smith that I missed?

Sedona: Do you have a favorite off the radar / non pedigree prospect?
Keith Law: I love seeing guys who weren’t high picks or big bonus guys come from nowhere to become real prospects. Someone mentioned Walter above. Matt Brash is another. Players do change in unexpected ways. That’s the fun way to be wrong.

Appa Yip Yip: Didn’t they drop the curtain when Bud Selig was elected to the hall?
Keith Law: Every Commissioner gets in, right? Except Fay Vincent, because he dared to go against the owners.

Will Smith: Cartaya is coming up and Smith’s bat plays at other positions.
Keith Law: Cartaya looks like a superstar in the making, but he’s not exactly MLB ready now.

Chris: do you agree with the Yanks’ plan of going stopgap til Peraza/Volpe are ready, given their massive long term commitments to Cole and Stanton aleady, w Judge possibly coming? (proviso obv they could do all of it)
Keith Law: It’s risky, but I understand it … at some point, you do have to decide THIS prospect is the one you’re going to let develop.

xxx(yyy): what is the story with Profar? was he just not able to recover after the injury? were folks too high on his floor?
Keith Law: I feel like it was the two lost seasons. That’s the most parsimonious explanation.

Matt: How did a guy like Mike Piaaza get drafted in the 63rd round? And as a favor to Tommy Lasorda more or less. Like, how do so many scouts miss that?
Keith Law: Scouts didn’t miss anything there. He was awful his first two years in the minors, too. He repeated high-A and suddenly had huge power, and that carried over as he moved up the ladder. He didn’t play at all as a freshman at U Miami, then went to junior college, so who knows how much he was even scouted as an amateur.

Brutus Beefcake: Apologies if I’ve missed it already, but do you plan to publish a column explaining your HOF votes?  I know in years past you’ve contemplated not voting at all but I take it from your mention of not voting for Schilling that you did vote this year.
Keith Law: I have voted every year, and I will absolutely reveal my ballot. The Athletic just wants us all to reveal ours at once, I think next week?

Appa Yip Yip: Is Nate Pearson the Jays closer for the next five years (or until his arm explodes)?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t give up on him starting yet. I understand the reason for the question, but consigning him to a 70 inning a year role really cuts off a lot of upside.

xxx(yyy): ballpark, how often do NPs actually make the major leagues? 1% of the time? 3%? 5%? less than 1%?
Keith Law: I would bet under 1%. One in a hundred sounds aggressive. If you’re calling 1 in every 50 future big leaguers a non-prospect, you need to adjust your bar.

Henry: I’ve always found Gary Sheffield to be an interesting HOF candidate, but his defense was beyond atrocious.
Keith Law: It was, but if he were a DH, he would have probably sailed into the Hall – or at least gotten in sooner. His WAR numbers would have been much stronger and enough voters lean on that now that I think it’s worked against him.

Joe: There’s one anti-vax meme I’ve seen that says something along the lines of “If the vaccine is free to keep the nation healthy, then why aren’t chemo and insulin free?” It’s a meme that just blows my mind that they think that’s an argument in their favor. The anti-vax voters are the ones who are electing Senators who refuse to address the cost of medicine.
Keith Law: That’s almost true, but there’s also a sizable chunk of anti-vaxxers on the far left too. Strange bedfellows etc., but not every anti-vaxxer is a Q-supporting nutjob. (they’re all nutjobs, though.)

Marani: Which is more irksome:  the HOF voter who doesn’t vote for Jeter, Seaver, Pedro, et al because “nobody deserves to go in on the first ballot”, or the guy who tosses a vote to Tim Salmon or Tony Phillips because they were super nice to reporters after the game was over?
Keith Law: The latter. Don’t care about unanimous votes. Mariano didn’t get a special plaque, did he?
Keith Law: But don’t cheapen the process by voting for a player who was nice. If that’s how unseriously you take it, don’t vote.

DEF: No question, just wishing you and yours a happy holiday.
Sedona: Glad to have you back for chat after a few weeks off.  Happy Holidays!!
Keith Law: Happy holidays to all of you as well. I’ll try to get back on a regular schedule with these as we approach prospect rankings – and then I’ll do several around the launch of the rankings too. Have a safe holiday, everyone. Thank you all for reading.

Starting at 1 pm ET. Subscribers to the Athletic can read my second scouting notebook from the Arizona Fall League.

Keith Law: Look here junior, don’t you be so happy. It’s Klawchat.

Tim: What should be the first priority for the Cubs? Sign Correa?
Keith Law: That seems like the wrong direction. This team isn’t rushing back into contention in 2022, not with that rotation. They’re building now, whether they say so or not.

Millie: Who has the highest ceiling out of the AL rookie pitchers this season?
Keith Law: Does Shane Baz count in your mind? He’d be my choice.

James: How big a deal the DBACKS won the final game of season and pick second instead of first ?
Keith Law: History says it’s a big deal, based on how much more valuable 1st overall picks have been than 2nd. In this particular draft, I think it might be less of a big deal, because the class looks deep up top in bats, and I don’t think there is a clear 1-1 guy (yet).

Noah: Hi Keith, I’m just here once again to thank you for your reporting and chatting and also to do my weekly “how the hell is Sandy Alderson still running the Mets?” spiel.  But seriously, why and how?  (same goes for his son)
Keith Law: I don’t understand why he has any say in the new President/GM hires. I can only imagine it’s a Manfred thing. As for Brynn, the midyear promotion and new contract raised a lot of eyebrows around the sport. It doesn’t matter if he deserved it – that decision should be reserved for the new GM, and since his father gave it to him, it’s impossible to see it as anything other than nepotism.

James: What places have you gone to eat in AZ for the fall league ?
Keith Law: I wrote that up here yesterday.

Javis: Given the rough left-side defense and the wealth of SS talent available this offseason, should the Red Sox consider realigning Devers and Bogaerts to make room for a premium SS?  (Bogaerts to 2B? Bogaerts to 3B and Devers to 1B?)
Keith Law: I’m pretty sure they view Nick Yorke as their 2b of the future, and would probably avoid moving Bogaerts there as a result. OAA has both Xander and Devers among the worst in baseball at their positions this year, but is that their talent level, or perhaps a function of positioning? If it were just one, I’d blame the player, but with two guys on the same side of the infield both grading out that way, perhaps it’s systemic.

James: Been to tratto by Bianco in Phx to eat yet ??
Keith Law: Yes, right when it opened. Wonderful.

Deke: If you were in charge of the Padres, what would your offseason strategy be?

(Personally, mine’s “experienced manager, try to find some bullpen reinforcements, do whatever it takes to find a real first baseman, and do almost nothing else.” Getting healthy is the biggest task without a close second.)
Keith Law: Agree on the biggest task part. They probably make the playoffs if their rotation stays healthy. And with Gore looking like he’ll be ready to help, I’m more bullish on their starters. They’re also going to have to make a decision on Abrams/Tatis in the near term. One moves to CF, I assume, and then Grisham goes to a corner?
Keith Law: As for the manager, I don’t agree it has to be someone with experience in the majors. Just don’t hire someone with no managerial experience at all.

Aaron in Indy: Yeah, Klawchat.  

OK, looking at this from a outsider, but was stunned about the Mgr. change in St. Louis.  No bias (I’m a reds fan) but it seemed like Shildt had a decent but flawed team that played hard all year long and did reach the playofffs.  Any inside reason why the Cardinals organization made this move??
Keith Law: The local press has indicated it’s that he wouldn’t work with the R&D department as much as Mozeliak liked. To which I say, why the hell wouldn’t he?

Tim: Do you think Luis Robert will win an MVP in his career?
Keith Law: He has the tools to do so, but I think the approach at the plate will be the thing that keeps him from getting to the top. Of course, Abreu won last year, and wasn’t even close to the most valuable player in the league – or even top 5 – so who the hell knows.

JL: As an Atlanta fan, please tell me why I should feel this one won’t end differently than all the other heartbreaks they’ve given me in my lifetime. Please, Keith? I’m begging you.
Keith Law: I never made LCS picks before the series because I was in Arizona, but I said on TSN Vancouver after game 3 that I would have picked the Dodgers before the series started, even though the odds were now more stacked against them. I’m sticking with that. They have the pitching advantage now, even though they have to win two games.
Keith Law: I guess that’s not the answer you asked for.

Deke: Did you see the incredibly assholish JD Vance tweet mocking the Alec Baldwin situation? It’s just incredible where we are these days.
Keith Law: No, but I wish folks would just ignore his performative assholishness, because attention is all he’s after.

bk: Are you still in AZ? Will you get to see Gabriel Moreno?
Keith Law: I left on Sunday. He wasn’t there.

Dave: Are you team dark mode or light mode on iPhone?
Keith Law: Light mode. Much better for your eyes.

Gabe: im looking to get into the fiction genre , what book would be a good start?
Keith Law: It depends a bit on your tastes, but if you’ve really not read fiction since high school, try something genre that appeals to you – a good mystery, sci-fi, fantasy, whatever fits. You’ll learn what you like as you continue reading, and then if you decide you want, say, more “serious” literature, you can move up to that.

Brian, CT: Keith, Tennis has effectively gotten rid of line judges and gone to all electronic calls. How much longer are baseball fans going to have to put up with what happened in Game 4 of the ALCS?
Keith Law: The automated strike zone is coming. Maybe 2023.

Alex In Austin: Your reporting from the AFL and automated strike zone was informative.  Do you think with more time and adjustments that pitchers would be more aggressive in the zone and long-term it could lead to more swings and a faster pace?  Or, should the zone just be expanded an inch on both sides?  I guess the good news is it seemed accurate.
Keith Law: My personal opinion is that they’ll have to widen the zone a little bit to avoid games like the last one I saw, with 22 walks in 7.5 innings. But with an automated zone, you can fine-tune it (during offseasons, please, not midyear or even midgame) to get the desired levels of called balls and strikes.

Alex: Just curious, but did you ever end up reading Klara and the Sun?  Always enjoyed your thoughts about Kazuo Ishiguro’s books but didn’t see a review posted here.
Keith Law: Not yet. It hasn’t been out that long.

Clayton: After Gore, Abrams, Campusano and Hassell, anyone stand out to you in the Padres organization?
Keith Law: I mean, that’s good enough, no?

KM: What are good body wash / deodorant / etc options for someone with sensitive skin and no toxic chemicals / ingredients? (I know you’re well educated on a variety of issues and value you your opinion)
Keith Law: I’ve never looked into that, but beware products that claim to be “non-toxic.” The dose makes the poison. “Non-toxic” is pandering marketing speak. Also, don’t drink your body wash. Selenium sulfide is extremely effective at treating dandruff. Selenium itself is an essential trace mineral with antioxidant properties. It’s also poisonous at less than 1 mg/day.

Deke: I’m sure there’s an Athletic piece about this at some point, but if there’s not — how do you expect the big five (or four?) at SS to shake out? Who goes where?
Keith Law: I don’t do team predictions for free agents – I don’t see why my guesses provide any real value to you – but I have already begun free agent rankings, with some thoughts on what I think these players merit in the current market, and those will run on The Athletic right after the World Series.

Justin: Are you in favor of something like a $100 mil salary floor?  Even the Pirates might be watchable if they were forced to spend the $60 mil to get there and did so intelligently .
Keith Law: Not if it comes with a cap.

Cold Turkey Stearnes: Do the Padres get Gore on the 40-man this winter, hope rule 5 status keeps him in the org, or are they down enough on him to not care much?
Keith Law: Are you actually asking if the Padres would consider not protecting him? That’s … well, just read what I wrote about him last week.

Cole: Any thoughts on the Angels parting ways with Matt Swanson as scouting director?
Keith Law: I’m assuming Minasian wanted his own guy in that role – Swanson was an Eppler hire. Certainly not Swanson’s fault that the Angels rushed Adell, or traded Wilson to save a few bucks.

Zack: What app / device did you use to track your running? I know you mentioned it in a blog post way back?
Keith Law: Fitbit. Does the job well enough.

Adam: All I want for Christmas is a full, healthy season from Trout and Buxton in 2022.
Keith Law: Don’t we all. Throw Tatis in there too.

Jeff: Keith, what would you do with the glut of righthanded 1B/DH/LF on the White Sox?  Is to too early to consider trading Eloy and looking to get more balanced between LH/RH?
Keith Law: That’s an interesting thought. Not so much about getting more balanced L/R, but using the corner bat surplus maybe to address a need elsewhere.

This is about politics: SCOTUS is likely to uphold the Texas abortion ban. If they do, will this be the tiger-catches-its-tail moment for the GOP?
Keith Law: My gut reaction is yes, in that it will mobilize a lot of independent voters, but 1) that’s really not an evidence-based opinion and 2) if the GOP has gerrymandered the shit out of the country, will it matter?

gjf: I know you listen to music a lot , what headphones / earbuds do you recommend?
Keith Law: I have Bluetooth headphones from Raycon I really like for audio. They’re not great for phone calls but the audio quality is tremendous and their battery life is very strong.

Randy: I recall you saying you’ve heard mixed things about Elijah Green (before the showcase circuit). Where do you see his general range after his performance this summer? Top 5? Top 10? Closer to back of the first?
Keith Law: He’s going in the top 10 for sure, barring injury or some weird disastrous James Wood-type spring. I hear the same things on him – off the charts physical gifts, real questions on the hit tool.

Chris: If the Yanks give Seager over 300m and he has to move to 3B in a year or two, will he hit enough to justify it?
Keith Law: Yes.

Michael: have you seen or heard anything about how Nolan Gorman is taking to 2B?
Keith Law: Looked okay in the brief look I had in AFL, but not as good as he’s looked at third.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Is there a way to make a pitch clock work?
Keith Law: Yes.

Steve: Keith: has Houck shown enough of a 3rd pitch to profile as a starter next year.
Keith Law: Not yet.

nb: Hey Keith – As a suffering Phillies fan, I’m glad they’re making changes to the player development area.  I mean at this point guys like Kingery, Howard, Moniak are simply organizational failures.  My question is this:  When evaluating and rankings, how much stock do you put in the organization they’re with?  Let’s say there are 2 prospects who you had similar scores on heading into the draft and they both play the same position.  One gets drafted by the Phillies, the other by the Dodgers.  Does the fact that LA does a much better job developing their guys make the LA draftee a better prospect?  Thx!
Keith Law: I don’t consider it at all. Any player might be traded at any time, and an evaluation of the player should be team-agnostic.

R. Mann: Do you buy into “moving Torres to 2nd base makes him a better hitter”?
Keith Law: Helped Luis Urias this year.

Guest: What’s the slot money drop from picking #1 versus 2nd? The Pirates were able to pay for an extra 1st roundish player using savings.
Keith Law: About $600K this past year. That’s not what paid for the Pirates’ bonus to Solometo, though – they signed Davis well under slot, and that paid for it.

JR: Had Lindor not signed an extension and played out his last year making him a free agent, what type of contract do you think he gets this off season? More or less $/years?
Keith Law: Similar. Maybe the down year gets him a little less, but I doubt it – it’s not like he seemed to be an appreciably different player and he’s still quite young for a free agent.

Cold Turkey Stearnes: What is the lowest grade a defender will play a position at as a regular in the Majors?  Obviously a well-below average 1B would become a DH, but what is the line for say a CF moving to a corner, or a SS moving elsewhere on the infield?
Keith Law: Depends on your alternatives, no? Teams play below-average defenders at SS, CF, etc. because that’s the best option (sometimes to get a bat in the lineup).

PK: Best newish board game for 10 year old son to play with parents? We like cooperative games but he’s gotten better about losing recently (we’re Cubs fans).
Keith Law: How about Juicy Fruits? That’s my review from August or so. One of the best new games I’ve played this year and definitely good for a 10-year-old.

Jay: Given the Red Sox’ history with Mookie Betts (deciding to deal him, rather than give him a long term contract), do you see them shopping Devers this winter, when his value will be at its highest, rather than next winter, when he’ll be eyeballing free agency after the 2023 season?
Keith Law: My guess is they’ll try to extend Devers. Sounded like Betts was always determined to get to free agency.

Shane: Still reason to believe in Jeter Downs?
Keith Law: Yes. Two-level jump was probably too much to ask.

3EB: Is Anthony Volpe headed towards being one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball to start the season next year?
Keith Law: No.

Dan: Have you been following the local Ben Simmons drama? I generally always on the players side – holdouts, strikes, opt-outs – go get your money while you can and don’t let the team take advantage of your rare talent. But I can’t understand Simmons’ perspective here. It seems like he thinks some valid criticism of his play have made his team relationship irreparably damaged (as an outsider with limited inside knowledge, of course). I’m curious as to your thoughts given your experience with team-player relationships.
Keith Law: He plays basketball, right?

Chris: Keith, I don’t know what to make of Tristan Casas. I know a lot of people are very high on him, but stats-wise, the numbers aren’t there. I saw he hit a HR in the AFL the other night, but then also saw it was on a 93mph fastball. What’s the proper expectation for him next season, and then in the future?
Keith Law: I like him, obviously, given past rankings, although I think there’s a fair amount of projection involved there – that he’s going to hit for more power as he gets older. Looking back, I’d compare him in that way to Freddie Freeman, who didn’t get to power until several years into his MLB career (around when the league-wide HR spike began, too). Freeman was a solid producer in the minors, then a solid big leaguer for a few years, then became a superstar. That used to be a pretty typical career path. I’m not saying Casas will be Freeman but I could see a similar slow trajectory towards his ceiling.

Gerry in Philly: Preston Mattingly a good hire by Philly?  Minor league system is seriously flawed
Keith Law: I’ve heard excellent things. Met him a few times but never chatted more than casually.

Dave: I recall you being extremely bullish on Derek Hill when the Tigers drafted him.  He obviously hasn’t lived up to expectations, but seemed (to my untrained eye) to hold his own in the majors this year. Is there still room for growth there and/or reason for optimism?
Keith Law: Loved the swing, the defense, the speed. He’s disappointed for two reasons – he’s been hurt a lot, and he has refused to develop any kind of patience, which his sort of hitter absolutely has to have. You can’t be a fast low-power low-OBP guy unless you’re Andruw Jones on defense.
Keith Law: That said, he could still do it. I’m a Hinch fan, and I’d like to see what he and his staff can do with Hill over a full season.

Matt: Thanks for the chat, and the recent AFL writeup. As a Cleveland fan, I’m curious about Palacios. Kind of a guy who popped at the upper levels, and from everything I’ve read, finding a defensive home might be the biggest issue. I know AFL is a short look, but do you see him at 2B? Chances he could hit enough for LF? Or is this just an “interesting” guy who probably fits somewhere on the bench?
Keith Law: More than a bench guy for me. Maybe a Tampa Bay-style multi-position guy. He can hit/get on base, though. I’m in.

Ryan: Will the owners lock out the players? It would be really stupid to do so since the owners are making so much money on their teams, franchise values … and those greedy greedy players… how dare they want more money for the services they provide.
I just hope CBA talks stall we get a more balanced take on what’s going on as opposed to every
Keith Law: I think we get some kind of interruption, but I am just hopeful that the two sides see there’s too much money at stake to lose a chunk of the season.

Tony: About two years ago, I wrote to you in a chat asking about how you feel about prospects who you doubt certain skills. And how, you don’t take pleasure in saying, “See, I told you guys he wouldn’t make it.” It was actually centered around Austin Riley when his bad speed was getting majorly exposed at the MLB level. I believe your response was along the lines that you are delighted when you are proven wrong because that means a kid made it. I’m sure that has to be what you feeling for Riley now considering how much he really did struggle out of the gate. I’m glad that his team gave him the chance to keep working on his game to make those adjustments.
Keith Law: Absolutely. Can’t believe you remember that (I didn’t), but I appreciate you bringing it back up. Having spoken to Austin for my story, too, I can tell you he’s someone you want to root for. And I told him how proud he should be of himself for doing something so unusual – very, very few hitters can make this big of a change to their approach in the majors, and especially now with pitching as good as it’s ever been. It’s incredibly impressive and I’d say it’s one of the things I most love about my job – watching players grow and improve, whether I predicted it or not.

Jeff: Were you able to see CWS prospect Jose Rodriguez at the AFL?  If so, thoughts?
Keith Law: Yes, a little. (Sorry, just went to grab my notebook.) Kind of a slap hitter, bit stronger than that but below-average power, with no approach. See ball, hit ball.

Matt: What should our endgame for COVID be?  I don’t see the virus ever fully going away, and I don’t want to carry on with restrictions forever, either.
Keith Law: The restrictions are the price of ignorance. If everyone were vaccinated, the virus wouldn’t go away but its circulation would be diminished enough that we could get back to semi-normal. I’ll probably wear masks for a long time, though. (It’s nice to not get the flu or many colds, either.)

Mike Trout: Feels like a while since I’ve seen a movie review on your blog. See anything good lately?
Keith Law: Nothing in a while now. We’ll do more movies when the season ends.

Ted: FWIW, I agreed with your take at the time that the Cubs didn’t get enough for Darvish.  Looking at it now, do you see any of the four prospects obtained becoming a “guy”?
Keith Law: Preciado stands out. Still think the return was light, though.

Michael: My kid is a freshman in college. He seems depressed. Loves school, having a ton of fun, but not going to class and has trouble getting out of bed. I can’t make an adult go in to therapy and am trying to be supportive and also give tough love from afar. Any tips?
Keith Law: You did mention the one thing I’d push for – there should be tons of resources for him. You could reach out to the school as well. Not going to class is a big red flag, to say nothing of the possibility he fails a class or two.

Ryan: Saw the headline “MLB clubs plan to give housing to minor leaguers” this week. It was great that they cut all those minor league teams so teams had more to spend on things and do that to start this year… oh wait, MLB had to be dragged through the mud and see other teams use it as an advantage before telling everyone to do it. Those stories about minor league life are terrible and MLB should be ashamed for how they’ve treated minor leaguers… just because they were treated this way in {pick a year} doesn’t mean it’s ok now.
Keith Law: Yep. It’s a good step. Still too little and way too late. Call your Congresspeople if you care. The hashtags and wristbands are cute and all, but they aren’t going to create real change.
Keith Law: You know what got the housing policy changed? News stories about players sleeping in cars and the like.

Clayton K: Most healthy water for you?
Keith Law: I shoot for a hydrogen to oxygen ratio of 2:1. I try to avoid heavy water, though. It doesn’t deu any good.

Jon: What are your thoughts on the Eagles this season?
Keith Law: We’re not that good. But maybe it’s a development year for Hurts?
Keith Law: Sucked to see Zach Ertz go, though.

Tom: The long nightmare of the Albert Pujols contract is finally over, however, the Angels weren’t close at all to making the playoffs, and they still have Upton’s money pit deal (he’s secretly been as bad as Pujols the past few years). What do they do this off-season? I guess try to address pitching as best they can?
Keith Law: That’s what I would do. Plow it into starting pitching.

Joe: High school teacher here – will the pledge of allegiance ever go away in schools? We still have it on the announcements every day but almost no one stands or recongnizes it anymore. Can we just let this thing go or would we hate America too much if we did that?
Keith Law: Eventually. It’s an absurd exercise in performative patriotism.
Keith Law: I’m glad to hear kids don’t stand for it. You don’t have to pledge allegiance to our government, let alone a piece of cloth.

Danny: You said before the season that if scouts thought Austin Wells had even a 20% chance of catching, he’d be a top 100 prospect. Have those odds of catching changed after his first pro season?
Keith Law: Nope.

Marani: From afar, I always got the impression that Aaron Boone was neither part of the problem nor part of the solution for the Yankees, but Yankees fans seem to be near unanimous in their disappointment that he’ll be back next year.  How would you evaluate his managerial skills?
Keith Law: I would agree with you – he’s certainly not part of the problem.

Deke: Allison Williams leaves ESPN because of the vaccine mandate and goes to the Daily Wire, where Matt Walsh said “Yes, I said that I don’t like female analysts and reporters in football. No, I don’t care if that upsets you. No, I don’t apologize. Yes, I think women are feminizing traditionally male spaces. Yes, I think that’s bad. Yes, I’m right. No, your whining doesn’t change any of this.”

No question, just … damn, what an incredible self-own on all sides.
Keith Law: He’s a fountain of bad takes. Also, as someone who left ESPN, imagine leaving them for that site. That’s a choice, all right.

Graham: I tweeted you about this the other night—the Braves used a defensive replacement in CF Wednesday night that wasn’t Pache. If they aren’t using Pache there, why is he on the roster, and as a follow up, have they totally given up on him?
Keith Law: First question, agreed, second one, I don’t think so at all.

Shane: RIP to the perpetually underrated Peter Scolari
Keith Law: Oh wow. He was indeed underrated. So good on Newhart.

Max: Should the Cardinals be giving Alex Reyes a shot as a starter or just accept that he’s bullpen material and ride him that way?
Keith Law: His delivery & injury history really say “reliever.”

Paul: Not sure I saw him come up on any of your playlists. Have you listened to Bartee Strange?
Paul: and nevermind you did recommend some of his stuff please disregard.
Keith Law: Hah, yep, Mustang was pretty good, looking forward to what he does next.

Paul: Are you familiar with Seiya Suzuki at all? Any comparisons or what to expect?
Keith Law: If he’s posted, I’ll write him up.

Nate: Idk if you saw where the Astros apparently just lost Ehsan Bokhari to the Cubs FO…do you have any thoughts on what the Astros FO is currently like now? Like has Click made any effort to bring his own lieutenants to offset the brain drain, or done anything different to help reshape things from the Luhnow regime? Seems like we’d already had a pretty big exodus of guys to begin with even before that
Keith Law: Known Ehsan for a while, he’s extremely sharp. I think Sarah Gelles has taken over his role, and she’s also very well-regarded, although I don’t know her personally.

Alex: Have you ever thought about doing board game video reviews?
Keith Law: Funny, I have. Hoping to do something along those lines this winter.

Luis Urias: You claimed moving Luis Urias to 2B helped him become a better hitter this year, but who’s to say that he couldn’t have improved this year regardless of his position? I thought correlation doesn’t equal causation?
Keith Law: OK. It was pretty easy to see the change from watching him, but you do you, I guess.

JBisson: Thanks so much for these chats, Keith. Always one of the highlights of my day. Do you think Leody Taveras made enough improvements with the bat to warrant an extended look in the TEX lineup in 2022?
Keith Law: I really hope to see him back in CF for them next year. Way too young to give up on him.

Eric: Will 2022 be another completely lost year (Top 5 pick) for the Orioles?
Keith Law: Hard to see them competing with the pitching currently in the organization & the competition in that division.

SD: Is Abrams playing in the fall league? Have you seen him?
Keith Law: He did not play at all last week. I was told he wasn’t physically ready but I don’t know if that was the broken leg or something else.
Keith Law: I mean, still related to the broken leg. Obviously if he had a broken leg now he wouldn’t play. That would be a bad idea.

Pat D: I know you mentioned doing movies after the season, and I know you’ve brought up the book several times, so any interest in seeing the new “Dune?”
Keith Law: 100%.

Bob: You made a brief comment on Pedro Leon. I know it’s tough when a player doesn’t do much in a live look, but was your negative tone suggestive that others have not seen big tools?
Keith Law: I thought I acknowledged the big tools, just that he looked really bad against a lot of different pitchers last week.

Mike Trout: James McCann isn’t blocking anyone. ETA for Alvarez?
Keith Law: 2023 for Francisco.

Mike: And for heaven’s sake, don’t you be so sad.
Keith Law: Glad someone got it. I was afraid my age was showing.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thank you so much for reading, as always, and for all of your questions. Free agent rankings will be up around November 5th, so keep an eye out for that. And don’t forget my books The Inside Game and Smart Baseball as you do your holiday shopping! Stay safe, everyone.