Klawchat 10/20/22.

Starting at 1 pm ET. I have two posts up (one and two) covering about three dozen players I saw in the Arizona Fall League, both for subscribers to The Athletic.

Keith Law: You’re calling all the shots. Klawchat.

James: Dave Roberts did nothing to warrant losing his job, right ?
Keith Law: Right. Really don’t understand the hand-wringing over the Dodgers losing a short series to a very good team.
Keith Law: This is the playoffs. We have upsets. It’s not about crowning the best team, but about crowning a champion. You have to accept that distinction or stop watching.

Jimmy: Team farthest away from being a playoff team?
Keith Law: The Rockies, for me.

Jimmy: Julio Wander or Witt next 10 years?
Keith Law: A healthy Wander. But I would bet all 3 make many All-Star teams.

Heather: What will you miss the most about the Liz Truss Era?
Keith Law: The lettuce.

Turner: Do you plan to read Cormac McCarthy’s new novels when they come out this fall?
Keith Law: I wasn’t aware he had any new novels coming, if that says anything.

Turner: The Orioles have a lot of hitters and few pitchers in their system. Is turning some of those hitters into an established frontlineish type starting pitcher something that can actually be pulled off or does it just sound reasonable in theory.
Keith Law: I think they have to do this, and it’s feasible. They have surplus at a couple of spots, including shortstop and the outfield. They’re not going to be able to get at bats for all of them if these guys all continue on their current trajectories, so converting a package of 3-4 of their hitting prospects into an above-average starting pitcher would be ideal.

RD: Kirby or Gilbert long term?
Keith Law: Kirby, given equal health.

Ken from Entertainment 720: Question on BABIP.  How do I know when it is skill or luck.  If a player is hitting .325 and has a certain BABIP how do I know if that .325 is based on skill versus luck on an elevated BABIP.  If his BABIP is sitting at .425 okay I get it it is luck (or the next Ted Williams) but if his BABIP is say .340 what factors do I use to determine luck versus skill here.
Keith Law: For starters, it depends on the hitter’s history of BABIPs – if he’s got a .340 BABIP this year, is that higher than his career norm? Much higher? OK, is he hitting the ball consistently harder? Or have some groundballs become line drives? Has his swing changed? Andres Gimenez went from under .300 in his first two stints in the majors to .353 this year. He changed his swing and started making much harder contact. That increase is some skill and some randomness. In his case I think it’s more of the former, based on what we see and what the data say.

barbeach: Hello KLaw!  Thanks for the chat.  What are your thoughts on what you’ve seen in the MLB so far from the Yankees’ Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera (SSS alert, I know!)?  Thanks much.
Keith Law: Peraza barely played. Cabrera showed similar skills to what we saw in the minors; he’s a low-OBP guy with power.  Probably not a regular for the Yankees.

xxx(yyy): big picture – was Kumar Rocker the right or wrong choice for the Rangers at #3? not asking if they should have taken another specific player, just if you think the process they went through to end up with Rocker was sound in your opinion
Keith Law: It truly depends on what’s going on with his arm, and I just don’t know the answer to that. If his arm turns out to be fine, it’ll be a solid pick. If not, meaning Texas evaluated the issue incorrectly or ignored/undervalued it in choosing him, then that was the wrong choice with Collier, Termarr, Green, etc. all still on the board.

addoeh: Being compared to Daniel Vogelbach only sounds bad if you think you have Anthony Rizzo 2.0.
Keith Law: Agreed. It was also very strange to get that kind of reaction about a prospect in a system that’s loaded with guys who are top 100 prospects or banging on the door – PCA, Triantos, Alcantara, Made, etc. It’s not like it’s Mervis or nothing over there.

Alex: With some luck, I can see the Pirates’ position players forming the core of a contender but it seems like their best young pitchers have #2/#3 ceilings. Do you think the Pirates can build a playoff-worthy rotation out of their system if their window opens in the next few years?
Keith Law: That’s probably right on the upper minors pitching. We’ll see how guys like Chandler and Solometo come along in the next year or two. This was their first full pro season, and both looked very good in limited time.

AM: I wasn’t a big fan of the Bucs picking Nick Gonzales and I worry that Termarr Johnson is similar- no clear defensive home and some questions about the projectability of the offensive tools given they’re a bit undersized. Am I overreacting?
Keith Law: Very different players. Gonzales was a college guy, so less risk for that reason and less upside. He also played at altitude, 4000 feet above sea level, which really skewed his performance and data. Termarr was a high school draft, so more risk there, but a better athlete with a better present hit tool on draft day. I’d be very surprised if Termarr didn’t become a better defensive 2b than Gonzales is.

Jibraun: Do you have an ETA on when Masyn Blaze Winn could be called up to the majors? Is mid-2023 too optimistic?
Keith Law: I think that’s too optimistic. You asked about Herrera taking over as catcher – I would like to think that’s their plan, and then Walker comes up later, and then Winn after that or even in 2024. He’s very talented but nowhere near as far along in his development as Walker.

Yankees Homer: Hey Klaw, what do the Yankees do about the left of their infield next year? IKF and the Racist are clearly not the answer. Is Volpe ready next year? How about 3B? Thanks!
Keith Law: I’m a Volpe guy. I’d try to get him 120 games or more in the majors next year. Even if he struggles at the start I believe he has the aptitude and athleticism to make adjustments.

Scott: It came up in your last chat that you haven’t seen Miguel Bleis yet.  I had noticed he wasn’t mentioned in your preseason prospect summary on the Red Sox.  Is that because he’s so far away?  The consensus seemed to be that he was the best FCL prospect this year.  I’m curious if you’ve heard enough from your sources that he might be in consideration in your next top 100.
Keith Law: He was only in the DSL in 2021 and didn’t stand out in performance or to scouts I know who saw that league. Different now that he’s played in the US against better competition and in front of more people.

Sage: You spent any time with Steve Stone?
Keith Law: Not really. Met him once over a decade ago. He was very friendly.

Jeff: I wonder if the Dodgers “failures” in the postseason are more due to approach and strategy towards a short series more so than anything else.  They seem to have a bullpen game in virtually every series including the most recent game 3 which was after not playing in round 1 and a day off between games 2 and 3.  I know the postseason is a small sample size so its not entirely indicative of who is the best team but when you have so much talent and you lose more than you win, something has to be the cause other than the randomness of the outcome of a baseball game/series.
Keith Law: How could we truly distinguish that from the randomness of a short series? I don’t know if we could. I also kept thinking the series might have been different with a healthy Buehler, although that’s all hypothetical (and then don’t you have to ask the same about Padres/Tatis?).

Alex: The Giants have been fairly clear they expect Kyle Harrison to be part of their rotation next year.  Maybe not at the start of the season but sometime during the season.  Is this a realistic expectation and what do you see as his ceiling/floor?  Thanks for all the great content and taking my question.
Keith Law: During the season seems very realistic to me.
Keith Law: Ceiling/floor is the kind of thing I will discuss at length in offseason prospect rankings. He’ll be on the top 100 again, and was on the midseason rankings.

Dave: So if gender identity is not metaphysical, but rather a matter of observable biological reality with (as you say) “clear scientific evidence” then shouldn’t we be able to test for it? That would allow us to prevent “false positives” and separate the truly trans from the future detransitioners, who are an ever-growing group of mostly-young people and whose stories are genuinely heartbreaking.
Keith Law: Autism is a matter of observable biological reality with clear scientific evidence, and we can’t test for it in the sense you mean. The last clause of your question is anti-trans propaganda.

Aaron C.: Did you hit up any new restaurants in the valley during the AFL or did you opt to play the “greatest hits” instead?
Keith Law: I have either four or five new ones to write up.

JT: Have we seen a statistically reliable post season series yet this year?
Keith Law: Is that a thing? Is it even desirable?

Greg: Hey Keith, do you see Justyn-Henry Malloy as a future every day left fielder or is he not at that level?
Keith Law: Yes.

Philip: Jackson merrill top 30 prospect now?
Keith Law: My gut is no, but I also haven’t sat down to start that exercise of ranking the top guys yet.
Keith Law: Top 100, sure, that’s an easy call. Top 30 is a very different question.

James: predictions for both series ??
Keith Law: I said Padres and Astros for the site.

Mo: Is it a fair criticism of the Cardinals that they seem to do very well in developing mid-level talent from out of nowhere, but have struggled to develop stars the last decade?
Keith Law: Is it? Flaherty would qualify as a star for me. I guess you’re not giving them Gallen, which is fair given where he became an actual star. Who have they had prior to Carlson/Gorman and the next wave who should have become a star, though? They had the 2017 draft where they had no picks till the third round. Prior to 2015 they had a lot of reach picks and have always drafted late in the first round anyway. I see a lot of value produced in the system overall but not many “he should have been a star but isn’t” guys.
Keith Law: If Carlson and Gorman flop, then the question is different.

Aaron C.: 30 years ago, guys like Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor were considered top prospects despite the lack of secondary pitches and an astronomical walk rate, respectively. Was there a singular turning point (a failed prospect, a draft year, an organization?) that opened the door to your predecessors/peers getting smarter?
Keith Law: The advent of the data era. We went from teams ignoring even basic performance data in the 1990s and prior to now teams hunting for tiny advantages in more granular data, finding a lot of hidden value but sometimes missing the forest for the trees.
Keith Law: I’ll take this mode of thinking over the old way, though.

Mo: What kind of slash line do you see from Masyn Winn when he gets to the majors? Will the bat a weapon or will he be a glove-first guy?
Keith Law: The glove will be valuable before the bat is.

Dave: As the only Cubs fan not currently furious with you, what did you see from Owen Cassie at AFL? I promise not to throw a tantrum if the answer isn’t to my liking.
Keith Law: I wish I’d seen more, actually. I liked him in the spring, but didn’t get many swings from him in the AFL.

Adam: Do you see Hunter Brown as a starter (top or bottom of rotation) or bullpen arm long term. Been very impressed so far.
Keith Law: Reliever, due to command.

Zac: Is Kerry Carpenter anything more than a 4th outfielder?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

nelson: every postseason i’m struck by how seemingly fragile a starting rotation is. in your opinion do teams generally do a good job with pitching strategy in the postseason? it’s often so different than what you would see in the regular season. is there anything that could better prepare them for success?
Keith Law: I don’t have a good answer to that.

Michael: Thoughts on the potential of Kodai Sanga?
Keith Law: He’ll probably get paid to be a starter, but I know a lot of folks question whether he can be a starter over here. He’ll be on my free agent rankings when they run next month, but isn’t in the top tier of guys.

Mason: So when do we cancel the playoffs and annoiunt the LAD rightful champs?
Keith Law: That was such a bizarre column – the first one, at least – and then someone tried to pit me against that writer on twitter, which I am not interested in doing at all.
Keith Law: And then other people piggybacked on this stupid idea. I think the Dodgers were the best team in baseball in 2022. The best team doesn’t always win – not in the playoffs, not in a series, not in any particular game.

James: Do padres have a legit shot to win it all ??
Keith Law: Don’t all four teams still in the playoffs have a legit shot? Once you’re in, you have a shot.

Jason: I got my (senior) parents Everdell last year and they play it daily, often four times or more in a day. Any suggestions that could follow the style of game but with a new/different play style? They love the fact that there’s so many ways to play.
Keith Law: That’s great to hear. Wingspan has a good bit of that too – you can win lots of ways, and often your best strategy is based on your starting cards, requiring you to play differently each time – and I think Lost Ruins of Arnak has some too, although that game is about twice as long as Everdell (2-player Everdell can be 35-40 minutes).
Keith Law: Raiders of the North Sea might fit too.

Aaron: First you criticize the Cubs for getting overly cute in the draft and taking a pitcher in a top-heavy hitting class. Then you trash an UDFA with a short track record of success. Why do you hate us so???
Keith Law: Heh. To be fair, I didn’t trash Mervis. I explained what I saw, which is consistent with the data from his time in the high minors AND with what other scouts who’ve seen him told me. I think he has some big league value.

JT: How ridiculous is the count the rings means of ranking individual players?
Keith Law: Doesn’t Clay Bellinger have three rings? So he’s miles better than Ernie Banks, right?

Chris: Do you think Carlos Correa would stay healthier at 2b? And do you think he’d be a good 2b or would he be better at 3b? Asking as a mariners fan whose president said yesterday they are looking to sign a SS who wants to move to 2b
Keith Law: I’d try third base if I wanted to move him. Second base isn’t necessarily a better position for staying healthy – the double play is always more hazardous for a 2b than a SS.

grobaba: How often do you buy frozen vegetables?
Keith Law: We always keep a supply in the freezer. Peas are the #1 choice, but we usually have that, corn, broccoli, one or two other things.

JT: Is there any chance that the Truss produce fail signifies a potential end to reckless austerity programs and small government?
Keith Law: Seems unlikely, no? But I don’t know British politics well at all.

Appa Yip Yip: What would you do with the Jays catcher situation? I’ve seen people floating the idea of playing Moreno at 3rd and the outfield but that seems like a poor use of resources.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t move Moreno. Defense is a huge part of his value. They could try to mix and match him & Kirk this year, and then trade one for something else they need.

Steve: Can Gorman hit enough for 2b or is he a DH going forward?
Keith Law: Oh his power will play anywhere. Are you asking if he can handle 2B defensively? I always thought he would.

Justin: Hi Keith. The Pirates currently have some pieces in place and coming soon like Cruz, Hayes, Reynolds, Bae (f*** him, but just reality that he’s here and decent at baseball), Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis, and some decent pitching.   Their payroll projects around $45 million next yr.  Do you think the better path would be to do something like trying to catch lightning in a bottle by getting payroll to $90 mil with additions like Jose Abreu and a few decent SP, or to just tank again with the cheap team they have?
Keith Law: If the owner were willing to spend – stop laughing – I’d go more for up the middle than an older corner bat like Abreu. You probably want to be more risk-averse in free agency, and more risk-loving in amateur player acquisition.
Keith Law: And yeah, some innings guys might help.

Chaz R: Verlander will likely opt out of his contract and become a FA. Should Astros resign him? If so what do you think the contract would look like ?
Keith Law: Yes, any contender should be interested, and given what he’s said about chasing wins milestones they’d remain a good fit.

Chris: Is Jake McCarthy real player? And who from the outfield mix is the odd guy out in Arizona? I know all players won’t develop and it’s not a surplus but who gets the chances?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s legit, and I wonder if Alek Thomas ends up elsewhere.

Ana: Regarding your claim that the sex binary is a myth, how is that true? Are you using “sex” to define something other than gametes? Every mammal is the product of *two* parents, one providing a small mobile gamete (sperm) and one providing a large stationary gamete (egg), and nobody produces both. This is fundamental science and the basis of complex evolution, which requires heritable traits that get passed down from *two* parents to their offspring. Two parents, two gametes = sex is binary. Any attempt to complicate beyond these facts is no longer an attempt to define “sex” but rather something else entirely. It’s a semantic game.
Keith Law: That’s just wrong. Biological sex is determined by chromosomes, not gametes, and there are more than just the two most common combinations (XX and XY). (Ana and Dave are the same user.)

Jim: Keith, what are your thoughts on the draft lottery in place for 2023?  On the one hand, it should somewhat lessen the urge to tank (with only a 16.5% chance of the worst team getting the top pick).  On the other hand, with it being instituted late in the off-season (well, in the middle of what should have been ST), does it unduly punish teams that may have planned the season under the old rules?
Keith Law: It seems like it has altered teams’ behavior, so I’m a fan.

JR: What has been the most disappointing adaptation of a beloved book into movie/TV show for you? For me, it’s Pachinko (which I believe you’ve read) for two reasons: 1) they tried to tell all facets of the story at same time by sharing a little bit of each era each episode; and 2) instead of using the book story as season one, they went it it with the idea it would be a 3-4 season story, so added a ton of extra details/characters/back stories (which I get you have to do in TV), but overall a huge disappointment to me – and I loved the book.
Keith Law: American Gods. Book is amazing. I never bothered with season 2 after the disappointing first season.

Henry: The NBA has established a great model by canceling all games on Election Day, and encouraging voting. MLB has done nothing, and their equity marketing is abysmal. What’s it going to take for MLB to catch up?
Keith Law: The players. The NBA and even the NFL are ahead because the players pushed it. In MLB, that’s not a thing. I’d guess a nontrivial minority of MLB players believe in the Big Lie.

Mike Trout: Should the Mets prioritize Nimmo? Of all their free agents he seems most likely to live up to his next contract.
Keith Law: Does he? Two full healthy seasons as a big leaguer. I’d be concerned about durability.

Bob: Is Endy Rodriguez a regular or is there more ceiling? Seems to be some question about his power. What days KLaw?
Keith Law: At least a solid regular.

Guest: In your estimation, what went wrong in the development of Corey Ray? I thought he was a near “can’t miss” prospect
Keith Law: Great question and I don’t have a simple answer. I do think it’s telling, and was probably a sign, that someone with his speed and athleticism couldn’t handle centerfield and wasn’t even very good in left. I do wonder if another organization might have handled him differently when he struggled right out of the gate, too. Eventually he changed his swing to get to power but at the cost of contact, and at that point he was pretty much finished.

Insert Witty Name Here: Oh been so long since I can get to a live Klawchat.  My wife and I have been discussing the whole transgender issue, and we have a question we want a third party to answer: what’s the threshold for a percentage of a population to where their rights become a “priority”.  Example: black people represent 16% of our population, I should prioritize their civil rights.  Transgender people are about 5%. While I personally believe that everyone should be treated fairly and with respect, is 1 in 20 people enough to where we need to prioritize their struggle? I believe you even said so yourself that it’s really a political strategy to demonize a small minority to rally up the base, is that correct?
Keith Law: What does “prioritize” mean to you here? Black Americans, gay Americans, women, trans people … they’re asking for the same rights as everyone else. Nobody is trying to give trans people more rights than cis people. However, a large movement – which is demonizing a small minority to rally their base, with the complicity of most of the national media – is trying to deny trans people basic rights, and to deny women basic reproductive rights, and so on. I do not lose anything when other people have the same civil rights that I do. I think I gain, because our society is better when we treat others as equals, and extend kindness rather than fear, ignorance, and hate.

TomBruno23: Unless you want to play a best of 75 it is not possible to have a statistically reliable postseason series, whatever that means.
Keith Law: Yep.

JJ: The stat line says that Nick Yorke took a solid step backwards this season.  He was viewed as a reach when the Sox took him in the first round in 2020, but he had a big 2021.  Is he still the second baseman of the future?
Keith Law: Maybe? I am uncertain after a not-great look in the AFL. He still has a great fucking swing, though.

addoeh: When you went to Alaska, did you do a cruise or just fly into Anchorage?  Did you go to Denali?
Keith Law: Only to Sitka for a weekend while I lived in Seattle. I would love to go to Denali and other parts of Alaska. My wife has never been so it’s on our short list of trips we’d like to take.

James: Do you do these chats at a coffee shop ??
Keith Law: I have, but I’m home right now.

Jon: How confident do you still feel about Dylan Carlson? I know you were high on him I’m still hopeful but this year was a tough one for him
Keith Law: I’m still in. The history of my breakout picks (he was one of mine for this year) says he’ll break out in 2023.

Scott (nyc): this may be a dumb question, but catchers seem to be the worst hitters, but shouldn’t seeing so many pitches as a catcher help them recognize spin and break while hitting?
Keith Law: Don’t catchers usually know what’s coming? Aside from the angle being so different, catchers know the pitch type, so they’re not using part of their brains to decipher that, while hitters must.

Ryan: Should we be concerned about Geraldo Perdomo? His average exit velocity is in the second percentile. It seems like he just needs to get physically stronger.
Keith Law: Yes, I share that concern, for that reason.

Kruk93: more surprising Phillies squad – 1993 or 2022?
Keith Law: I think 2022. The 1993 team won the NL East.

Steve: What would be your prescription for the Rays to improve their anemic offense? Seems like they should trade one of Glasnow/McClanahan/Rasmussen/Springs for hitting (the latter two more likely). A healthy Wander will obviously help but even aside from him and a couple others (Arozarena, Y.Diaz) it’s a wasteland, and guys who were supposed to inject some life into it (J.Lowe, Brujan) haven’t looked like they can hit much at the big-league level.
Keith Law: When you’re below the league median in both OBP (barely) and SLG (by a fair amount), you’ll be below the league median in runs per game. So fix one or both of those things. Wander will help. They may have to be patient with Lowe and Brujan. And going out to get a thumper wouldn’t hurt.

Marvin: How aggressive should the Yanks be with Jasson Dominguez next season? He seems to have shown the ability to make adjustments.
Keith Law: They already have been – he finished the year in AA and the AFL as a 19-year-old. He’ll start next year in AA in his age-20 season and I bet he’ll be in AAA by the All-Star Break.

TomBruno23: Aaron C…check out Bobby Witt’s numbers in college and in the minors. Man.
Keith Law: Funny, that’s exactly the name that came to mind. Zero chance he goes in the top ten today (he went third overall).

xxx(yyy): was Evan Carter just a guy who fell through the cracks and would in a “typical” year, or just a result of a COVID year draft?
Keith Law: Scouts saw a lot of swing and miss from him in high school. Texas took him high, so I don’t think he fell through the cracks – we don’t know if a bunch of other teams were waiting in the wings on him, either. I still think he’s too passive at the plate.

Jon: Assuming Cruz moves off SS, is Liover Peguero a guy or a GUY?
Keith Law: More of a guy. Disappointed in multiple looks at him this year. Needs to get stronger, but also his approach was behind where I thought it would be.

Sharlott: Gut on what Judge signs for (whether its the Yankees or not)?  Even with the superb season, I just don’t see him getting astronomically more than he turned down because of the age/injury-risk, no?
Keith Law: I think he gets more years than is prudent, but a lower AAV.

James: Do you like Joe Davis broadcasts or do you still watch on mute ?
Keith Law: Joe is fantastic. I’m very happy any time I hear his voice. Unfortunately I have not found the app that lets me hear him and mute Smoltz.

James: Thoughts on gas prices, inflation, direction of economy ? What grade would you give Biden so far ?
Keith Law: I don’t think any President has much if any control over gas prices or inflation, unfortunately. Lot of things a President can affect, but gas is a global commodity, and we are subject to the whims of the market. When the Saudis choose to cut production – and that’s a whole can-open-worms-everywhere situation – we’re largely at their mercy. I also think inflation would be less of a concern if wages were keeping pace, and that is something that the President could do more to help when his party controls Congress.

Tracy: Book question: any recommendations of mysteries? Thanks!
Keith Law: The Magpie Murders by Anthony Horowitz.

JR: Are tommy john surgeries/serious pitching injuries trending down? The past season or two feel like there have been less. Perhaps all the steps organizations are taking to protect arms are working? O
Keith Law: I don’t think TJs are trending down across the whole sport, but I believe that other significant arm injuries are down.

Chris: About how much of your boardgame time is spent replaying tried and true games from your collection vs trying new ones?  Back when I first started playing games, we’d get a lot of plays in on a smaller set of titles and really get to explore the different strategies and meta-strategies that develop from repeated plays.  It’s much harder to do that now when folks around the table want to try the shiny new thing (and the collection has gotten much bigger as well).
Keith Law: Way more playing new stuff. I would prefer to balance it more with family favorites, but I get so many new games to review and I want to try them all.

Nick: Thanks for the chat. Did you get a chance to see any of the Tigers contingent in AZ? Meadows appeared to make some improvement this year and Keith was off to a good start before the injury.
Keith Law: Meadows wasn’t good for me. Keith also had a rough week.

TomBruno23: Ryan Loutos…not exactly a top prospect although his background as a Wash U pitcher on the doorstep of the majors is cool. Also cool is the scouting analyst who signed him is Julia Prusaczyk. Women in Baseball. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/cardinals-righthander-ryan-lou…
Keith Law: 93-95 with what I thought were two distinct breaking balls. Reliever all the way. He’s something, though.

Michael Bluth: Where does Bryan Reynolds settle in as a player? 3-4 WAR most years?  Better than that?  And defensive metrics hated him in CF, is that likely to change at all?
Keith Law: I think a 3-4 WAR corner outfielder is about right.

Billy: How does Jordan Lawlar look in the Fall League? AZ Republic quoted a scout who said he looks better than all the rest of the Dbacks players. That’s incredible, since Carroll looks like a stud.
Keith Law: He was in my first AFL notebook, linked at the top of this chat.

JT: “Two parents, two gametes = sex is binary. “

Remind Ana that there aren’t only two eye colours, too, hey? How two gametes mix has to produce an I/O sitch?
Keith Law: It’s a rather weird, new to me transphobic argument. Just leave other people and their bodies alone. It’s not your business.

John: To what extent does WAR take into account how often a player is on the field?  I assume it doesn’t.  But if I sign a high WAR player with an injury history (thinking Correa), then I really need to make sure I have a relatively strong utility player who can fill the gaps. Viewed through that lens, would it be preferable to sign a player with a slightly lower WAR but who stays on the field more (e.g., Bogaerts, if we ignore that his WAR was slightly higher than Correa’s this year)?
Keith Law: Of course it does – if you hit at the same rate in 80 games vs 160 games, your WAR for the latter total (ceteris paribus) will be a lot higher.

Swinging A’s: Zack Gelof, just a guy or a GUY.  Thanks Keith
Keith Law: I’m in. He’s a GUY.

twinkie town: Did you get a chance to see Edouard Julien in Az?   If yes, your impression?
Keith Law: All I saw was him taking pitches. My gut reaction was that he is also too passive.

Michael: “When should I prioritize their civil rights?” What a joke. How about not try to willfully hurt anyone?
Keith Law: Do unto others, no? I thought that was in that book the transphobes are so fond of?

Todd: Thoughtrs on Will Warren Yankees? Legit MLB starter?
Keith Law: Reliever. Wrote him up in August.

Mike: Do you think it’s a coincidence that Bader, Donaldson and Torres will all have their contracts run out when Volpe, Peraza and Dominguez should be ready for MLB full time?
Keith Law: I do not think it’s a coincidence, at least around Volpe. I’m pretty sure they were low key betting on him being ready for 2023, recognizing that the free agent market would probably cover them if he wasn’t (and that’s before we knew Correa would get an opt out).

Ollie: Did you have Daulton Varsho becoming an elite defensive outfielder on your 2022 bingo card? Because I sure didn’t! Wow, he’s such a good athlete.
Keith Law: I absolutely, 100% did not have that.

Michael: Hey James, check out how inflation is in other countries compared to the US. Much lower here
Keith Law: The Euro zone is around 10%, almost 200 basis points above ours.

Insert Witty Name Here: By prioritize, I mean changing my usual behavior.  For example, is a pronoun really a rights issue? If I mistakenly call a “they” a “him”, that person gets upset. Is 5% of the population a large enough sample size to where I have to be fully cognizant of what language I use? And if so, what’s the threshold for us to have to worry about everyone preferences? 2%? 5%? 10%?
Keith Law: Using proper pronouns is a hardship?

Dave: You’re running the Orioles. Do you spend on a starter and let the young position players play?
Keith Law: Yes, and see above for more on what I would do (and expect them to do).
Keith Law: I don’t think they were actually as good as their record this year, but I also think they will be a flat-out better team next year even without outside help. So give them outside help and they might be a 90+ win team.

Kevin Made: Did you get Cristian Hernández and I mixed up in your earlier response to the Mervis question?

Also thoughts on Jordan Wicks’ new slider? Stuff+ loves it. Does it bump his ceiling up?
Keith Law: I did not confuse the two of you.

TomBruno23: Interesting episode of The Daily this morning about how Republicans are using Inflation, Crime and Immigration as the issues to sway swing voters.  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000583…
Keith Law: I saw a ridiculous number of political ads and billboards in Arizona, and the two most common themes for Republican candidates were the border (overblown, but at least they’re a border state) and … fentanyl. It’s like some focus group told campaign managers that fentanyl was a new four-letter word or something. Nobody is putting fentanyl in your kid’s Halloween basket. You can’t get sick just by touching it. All these myths about papers soaked in fentanyl and fentanyl wiped on car doors … they’re hoaxes, and also ridiculous, because what user or dealer is just throwing the stuff away anyway?
Keith Law: You know what I didn’t see mentioned anywhere? The pandemic, which has killed over a million Americans. Or wages.

Mike: Global inflation is the product of 10+ years, and multiple adminstrations, artificially depressing interest rates by increasing the money supply.  Inflation at some point was a mathematical certainty – it was just a matter of when and how high.
Keith Law: Good point.

Michael: Hey Keith- I know changing of a manager is usually not worth more than a couple wins. Was there something specific in the change from Girardi to Rob T that made it such a huge impact on the Phils season? Or are you not buying that the change was the reason for the subsequent success. Post hoc ergo propter hoc or no?
Keith Law: I am more inclined to believe such a change mattered when specific players improve after the change in meaningful ways – like Stott.

Appa Yip Yip: If you meet someone named Thomas and they’re like actually I prefer Tom is it a hardship to call them Tom?
Keith Law: Don’t a lot of people get irrationally upset if they’re called ma’am instead of sir or vice versa?

ChrisP: How soon before Neto gets to the big leagues? His skill set seems like he might be a quick mover
Keith Law: I would guess by mid-2024.
Keith Law: Although it’s the Angels, he might be up next week.

Guardians: What do we have in Nolan Jones? Future big leaguer?
Keith Law: Big leaguer, more likely a platoon or bench guy than a regular.

Insert Witty Name Here: You’re not getting the point of my question.  We haven’t been using “they/them” for that long as a social issue.  Because they only represent 5% of the population, is there another population of people that represent 5% to where we have to change our usual behavior to their preferences because of their feelings? If I call a they/them a him because they look like a typical man, why should I feel bad about that?
Keith Law: The singular they/them has existed for centuries. Just ask people and try to use their pronouns. Also, I’m 1000% certain that the biggest issue for LGBTQ+ folks isn’t pronouns. It’s their right to exist.

TomBruno23: Has Mike Matheny managed his last MLB game?
Keith Law: Nothing personal against the guy, but I think that is for the best.

xxx(yyy): what is your at home coffee routine/process?
Keith Law: I either use a V60 pour-over or make an espresso macchiato (so a double shot with a small amount of foamed milk). I go back and forth. The former has more caffeine because I use about 20% more coffee by weight, so sometimes that’s the determining factor. Today I needed that extra 20%. And then that’s usually my only coffee for the day.

James: Did you watch the Pizza show on Netflix ? With Bianco in it
Keith Law: No but I need to. I tried to go to the original location when I had an unexpected window on Saturday and they had a four-hour wait – it hasn’t been like that in years. Great for them. Less so for me.

Todd: How much of a concern is it that after the November elections, Republicans will have so much control that a plain sight coup is actually possible? Validate elections that only benefit them
Keith Law: Everyone should vote their conscience. I do believe that our democracy’s health is very much at stake this November, though.

Tracy: Too many books, so little time?
Keith Law: Absolutely. I’m about 3 behind in reviews now, too. And I have the Hugo winner (A Desolation Called Peace … what a pretentious title) checked out from the library, and would like to get the Booker winner soon too. Plus I bought seven books at Changing Hands in AZ.
Keith Law: I could live in a very small house if I didn’t have all the books and board games.

Todd: Piggy backig off the above, how far removed from Trump’s mere existence do we have to be to actually get back to pre Trump politics? Or a sense of rationality
Keith Law: Last question for this week … No political movement is going to go away if it works. If voters reject a movement, it’ll die off, and in our case the party in question will swerve to something else. That’s true for either party, for any movement. Trumpism will endure as long as it wins elections. When that stops, the Republican Party will shift to a different set of ideas or policies, or perhaps another candidate. The same would be true for Democrats – it’s not the same thing, but the party abandoned a lot of its principles during the Clinton era for the sake of retaining power. I don’t think this is any big insight.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat. My next big post for the Athletic will be my free agent rankings, which will run after the World Series ends, maybe the next day depending on the schedule. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions!