My ESPN+ column listing my (hypothetical) postseason awards ballots went up this morning.

Keith Law: Birth. School. Klawchat. Death.

addoeh: Who would bring back the Cubs a greater return; Baez or Bryant?
Keith Law: I have to think Baez given positional scarcity/flexibility, right?

Sad Canadian: Hi Keith. I live in a country where the voters are probably going to re-elect as Prime Minister a “woke bae” who has been found to have, on at least 3 occasions, worn blackface. Any reason why I shouldn’t dig a very large hole and hide in it for, I don’t know, forever?
Keith Law: It does depend a bit on the alternative, no? I mean, I’d vote for Woke Bae if it were him vs. Trump.

Sam: Who do you think is more likely to still be employed as manager of their current team this time next week: Joe Maddon or Mickey Callaway?
Keith Law: Maddon. Not that I entirely blame Callaway for the Mets missing the playoffs, but I feel like he’ll be the scapegoat.

Brian G: Good day, Keith – CBA expires season after next I believe. Rough odds we’ll have a work stoppage? (Full disclosure: I have cc’d Rudy Giuliani and Willy Barr on this message to you, normal stuff.)
Keith Law: excellent, I can trust those two guys to keep a secret. I say 20% odds. I hope I’m being pessimistic.

Nelson: Despite the juiced ball, why has there has been only 1 50HR season in the past 2 years?
Keith Law: Well, two of the players most likely to get to 50+ missed too much of this season to injuries to do so. We’ve also got a player at 49 this year, and in 2017 we had two guys cross 50 (the same two who missed part of this year). But I think the best explanation is that juicing the ball isn’t going to help every player exactly the same way, right? It’s not some linear function where we just add X feet of distance or multiply every distance by (1+x) where x is somewhere between 0 and 0.2 or something.

Mike: With Giminez coming soon, do you think Rosario can move to CF? Unfortunately, Cano will be holding onto 2nd base for a while longer.
Keith Law: Gimenez had a .309 OBP in AA, and doesn’t project to hit for power. I don’t think he’s coming soon.

mark: My kids are big pancake fans. I find mine tend to be a bit flat. What is the secret to a big fluffy pancake?
Keith Law: Separate the eggs, then whip the egg whites (with a pinch of cream of tartar) to stiff peaks before folding them into the rest of the batter.

Carl: Tommy Edman more than a 4th OF for the next few years?
Keith Law: I think he’s an extra guy, not a regular.

John : What are your thoughts on the dynasty fantasy baseball industry and how it affected your industry? Your articles and rankings (along with others ie. BA, Pipeline) are the main tools used in group chats, trade proposals, etc. etc. Would you participate in some way within this community?
Keith Law: I don’t play fantasy, but of course I am happy to have folks read & use my content for that.

Sedona: Has Tony Gonsolin shown enough to win a rotation spot next year? What do you think his ceiling is?
Keith Law: Ceiling of mid-rotation starter. Five extra points for the hair.

Sam: The Giants will undoubtedly extend a QO to Maddison Bumgarner. Considering his declining analytics, age and the amount of innings he has thrown do you see much a market for him this offseason. Is he going to be this years Dallas Keuchel where he may have to wait until after the draft to sign because of the QO? Thanks
Keith Law: Keuchel was hurt a bit by concerns about his injury history and durability. I don’t think Bumgarner faces either, although I agree with your points about declining fundamentals and general workload.

Buscon Bob: Position players who can draw walks and hit for power are seemingly the must-have for all baseball teams, why does it seem as if Avila is allergic to this in Detroit?
Keith Law: I think the Tigers are targeting different players than the rest of the industry across the board, and I don’t exactly know why. It does seem like, in the draft at least, they tend to take guys who are more famous – and more toolsy – than guys who pass the sort of contemporary filters teams use, which includes Trackman or similar data.

Sedona: Amed Rosario has taken a huge step offensively this year at age 23. He’s improved his #’s year over year. What do you think his ceiling will be?
Keith Law: I think by 26-27 he’ll be a star. I am no longer sure where he’ll play, as he has regressed on defense since reaching the majors, and I don’t know if 1) I overrated his defensive ceiling or 2) the Mets are just not good at developing gloves.

Aaron: Joey Votto recently mentioned that he would rather retire (quit) than struggle thru the last years of his contract. The reds could never publicly support this. Buttttttttttttt, what percentage chance do you think they quietly hope he does this before his play turns into a Albert Pulojis type situation (or do you think it does with him).
Keith Law: I’m sure they hope he does so, or takes a buyout, or there’s an injury that gets them an insurance payment.

JR: I’m trying to reconcile this Mets season. On the one hand, it was very entertaining with some great performances by deGrom, Alonso, McNeil, Conforto. On the other hand, nearly everything went right with the starting rotation and the key positional players were mostly healthy and this is the best they could do (obviously the bullpen weighed them down). There is every reason to expect some regression next year – especially from the rotation and they’ve sacrificed their top prospects in the meantime. In sum, I enjoyed this season but the short term benefit does not outweigh the long term cost they paid to field this team.
Keith Law: I agree, but I think they’ll go all in for 2020 now that they’ve traded Kelenic/Dunn and acquired Stroman (trading Kay and SWR). Because they’ve gutted their system – which still has some prospects of value – they’ve increased their incentive to win in the short term. The long term looks much worse.

Brad: Keith, I think Trump relishes this latest development: (1) He KOs Biden, who he considers the main opponent, with lies and smears; and (2) He again sucks out the room’s oxygen by dominating the news with his persecution complex while Dem candidates and key issues again get bumped off the airwaves.
Keith Law: Thirteen months before the election probably mitigates your second concern. As for Biden, uh, okay, bye.

Corey: If a billionaire with a sports empire who owns one of the richest clubs in pro sports trades off one of the best 5 players in the game in his prime to save $ + get under an arbitrary threshold, i’m thinking it’s time he sell the team Is Boston really going to do something that dumb ?
Keith Law: There’s a good baseball rationale for trading Betts, but they have to get an impressive return for him, and that’s not easy – also, they don’t have a GM yet.

Dean Mavrides: Is Vidal Brujan TB’s future 2b?
Keith Law: Yes.

Craig: Dom Smith for Trent Grisham. Who says no?
Keith Law: Does Grisham fit the Mets? Not a bad deal for value but I’m not sure it addresses a need for NY.

Buscon Bob: Joe Ryan or Shane Baz, better floor and better ceiling?
Keith Law: Baz better both. Ryan’s a prospect though.

Ben: Can Mauricio Dubon be a legit starter, or is he a utility guy at best?
Keith Law: Nonzero chance he starts. Love the player, will get the most out of his tools.
Keith Law: Turns out the electric kettle only works if you plug it in!

Nathan: I noticed Arraez not in the top 3 for AL ROY? How far behind the other 3 was he, and can he be anything more than a good UT going forward? His contact rates are insane and he’s been walking
Keith Law: I only ranked 3, sorry, I didn’t rank anyone past that and I don’t think he’s ahead of any of those guys (not by WAR, certainly). Probably a good UT, chance for a regular (grade 55 ceiling, if you are inclined that way).

Joe: I’m not sure if you want to comment, but: do you have a list of things (not including money) that you’d like to have (e.g. your own podcast) if you returned to ESPN?
Keith Law: I do have a list, but I don’t know that I should share it. The people who would make such a decision know what matters to me.

Ken: with the Orioles farm system in the bottom 5 pre 2019 draft and moving to the mid teens post draft. Is there anything reason they shouldn’t have a top system system this time next year
Keith Law: They’re in the mid-teens? I think they’ve improved, but I haven’t reranked.

John: 2020 Red Sox first baseman — FA signing, or Chavis/Travis?
Keith Law: I could see them trading Betts and then signing a 1b. I’d like to see Chavis get that shot, though.

Dallas: The NBA today has come out and said that everybody has to give their exact age and height; no more fudging. I’m 5’7 and 3/4″; if the NBA doesn’t list me at 5’9″, I riot. Thanks for your support.
Keith Law: Can we do that in baseball? And add weight?

Derek: Is this enough to get republicans to stand up or will they just be concerned about it and move on?
Keith Law: My guess is they just voice concern and continue to confirm appointees. If the House impeaches Trump, however, we’ll actually force everyone to make some public stand.

Brian: Gleyber Torres has a 125 wRC+ on the year but it goes down to 103 if you remove games vs the Orioles. Which do you think is closer to his true talent level?
Keith Law: I think he’s closer to the latter, but his ceiling is the former and then some.

xxx(yyy): Good Afternoon Keith! I have an itch to make some new stuff but not sure what to make…where do you look for new culinary ideas/recipes/food?
Keith Law: Either from things I eat at restaurants that inspire me, or when I see a recipe online/in a magazine that really catches my eye. I did that last night with something I saw in Bon Appetit, chicken legs braised in coconut milk and thai green curry paste. It was good but I think needed more salt and a lot more lime juice than just “serve with lime wedges.” Good with rice to soak up the cooking liquid.

Joules: Hey Keith. If the Braves extend Donaldson should they seek to move Riley or is he more of a bench bat at this point?
Keith Law: Could try Riley in RF, or keep him as Donaldson insurance. I feel like his trade value would be slightly depressed after the rough rookie year.

Eric: My wife and I are thinking about a move from the big city (LA) to a more rural/smaller town within the next few years. We have two little kids. Any advice on a decision like this, since you have made a number of moves over the years, and settled in a smaller city?
Keith Law: I’m really close to Philly, and in the NY-Washington belt you’re never really far from a big city, so I get the best of both worlds. But there are some wonderful small cities around the country that still offer a lot of the art, culture, food, etc. I’d want. Nashville, Louisville, Minneapolis, hell even Omaha (not very diverse, otherwise wonderful) have all impressed me on my travels.

Dave.: Trout or Bregman for MVP?
Keith Law: That column went up today.

xxx(yyy): what is (or should be) the next logical step for Lauren Mayberry?

girl has 70+ grade vocal talent but has probably done all she can with CHVRCHES at this point, right?
Keith Law: Agreed, I think she’s constrained by their musical style and also seemed to mail in the lyrics on the last album.

Jason: Do you have any sense of why you were shut out on awards voting two years in a row? Is it just random or is there some metric by which they select the writers who vote for particular awards?
Keith Law: (shrug)

Kevin: Tigers have 1st pick in next year’s draft. Narrative suggests Torkelson is pick for a position player starved farm system but could Austin Martin uptick in power and be choice? Any other reasonable possibilities now?
Keith Law: Torkelson is famous, not necessarily the clear 1-1. It’s a loaded class with college bats and pitching, and I think it’s folly to just assume Torkelson is the clear top guy right now when there are plenty of other candidates.

Rob: If you’re the angels do you pay Cole $250 million this off-season? I know they need pitching but I’m uneasy, should I not be?
Keith Law: You should be uneasy but he is by far the best fit for them.

Brian: Small sample (less than 50 games), but is there any indication that Bo can stick at short?
Keith Law: I don’t believe he will.

Brian: what’s your top 3 MLB stadiums strictly based on food and drink options
Keith Law: I very rarely eat in MLB stadiums, but if I do I find a local vendor in the park.

Dallas: It’s no secret that HS RHP are incredibly volatile. I know last year’s draft didn’t have a top of the draft HS RHP but do you think the days of HS RHP going in the Top 10 are gone?
Keith Law: Not gone but definitely trending down. There will be years where the college crop disappoints and HS P get elevated, though.

TP: Agree that BVW got fleeced in the Cano/Diaz trade. What should the Mets have offered at the time to get a deal done? Not saying it was a good idea, but how much did they overpay?
Keith Law: It was all Kelenic for me. Take him out of the deal, replace him with some other prospect from their system, it’s nowhere near as bad.

Ben: In your opinion, is an offensive “core” of Riley Greene, Paredes, & Tork (or any other 1-1 bat) a good enough compliment to Mize, Manning, Skubal, Wentz, etc. to make a winning baseball team? The Tigers would have a lot of money to spend as well on additional bats as well
Keith Law: I think you’re overrating that offensive core. They’ll have money, but they’ll have to make better decisions on hitters.

Jerry: I’m a 50-something unapologetic progressive. But even I can see that the upcoming, imminent collapse of the gop is probably not a good thing for the country. Or am I overrating the appeal of checks and balances from opposing sides/povs?
Keith Law: I am hopeful a more rational conservative party will emerge after this is over – one that argues for smaller government, say, but doesn’t deny science or oppose basic human rights for anyone other than straight white men.

Gest : Who do you like more in 2020, Giolito or Paddack?
Keith Law: Giolito, although bear in mind he’ll pitch in the AL in a good hitters’ park, while Paddack will be in the NL in a good pitchers’ park, so if this is a fantasy question I might go the other way.

Phil: True or False: Bryce Harper is having a pretty damn fine season.
Keith Law: True.

Gest : Do you play the Catan expansions? Would you say it’s worth the added investment?
Keith Law: They make the game longer, so while I like their concepts I don’t play with them.

Sage: Any tips to change chords quicker?
Keith Law: Practice, and maybe considering alternate fingerings that set you up for the next chord.

Kendra: I get that reasonable minds can disagree on things, but how did we get to the point where if you are a dem the sky is blue and if GOP it’s green? Objectively speaking both the Muller report and the whistleblower report show impeachable offenses. It’s so sad to see the “greatest country” on earth be a banana republic and “reputable” men behave the way they are. Not one GOP rep asked a question about the actual report today when talking to the DNI. It’s insane.
Keith Law: We got here because it worked for the GOP. Their irrational statements are rational if you assume their sole goal is to get and hold office. If people stopped voting for them when they said climate change was a hoax or handwaved away Trump’s various offenses, they’d change their tune. Political parties are pretty responsive to voter habits. If the GOP gets trounced in 2020, they’ll pivot.

Adam: What band has had the most influence over your musical taste?
Keith Law: I would say Nirvana, specifically with Nevermind, did the most to form my musical taste as an adult, both for the specific sound of the album and in creating a still-ongoing interest in finding new music outside of the mainstream.

FTN: Keith, is Austin Hays back to being a top 25 prospect in baseball?
Keith Law: Well, he never was one, so … no.

Dallas: If the current state of baseball remains, the home run numbers are really going to skew arbitration values. I think we may see a lot of hearings this off-season because players like to go off of good seasons and I think the LRD is going to want to curb values. Only way to do that is to go and win arb cases to prove your point.
Keith Law: It’ll be hard in year one because you use comparables from the recent past and so many current players will have higher HR and SLG than the players to whom they’re being compared from 1, 2, and 3 years back.

Mitchell: I see many (far too many, imo) Brewer fans that do not like to give Craig Counsell any credit for the way he manages the Brewers. I’m not sure how much of an impact a manager can truly have, but it appears his strategy, especially in pitcher usage, has paid great dividends. How much credit does Counsell deserve?
Keith Law: He’s good, no? I think he’s done a really nice job, and has evolved over his tenure.

Mike: Vlad is going to be fine…….right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Mike: Do you (and perhaps your ESPN) colleagues negotiate directly with the company, or do you have an agent?
Keith Law: I have an agent who negotiates with the ESPN talent office. My boss isn’t directly involved, and I’m not really either. It’s better for maintaining these relationships going forward.

Kendra: My son’s friend is a really sweet, kind kid. I was hanging out with his parents and the Dad called a NFL player the n word. I told him that I find that talk objectionable, ended my time with him and don’t plan on hanging out again. I agree with you in cutting racists out of your life, but what would you do if this was your daughter’s friend? Does she still get to play with him?
Keith Law: I’d probably decline to let my daughter go to that house again, knowing that such language is probably typical (you don’t just bust out that word in front of company).
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say she couldn’t be friends with the kid, though.

Sedona: Do you see similarities between Paddack and Jefferies?
Keith Law: I do not.

Ben: Keith, regarding your response about the Tigers, would Torkelson be a more likely 1-1 candidate for the Tigers than anyone else? Famous, and loud tools, but with positional/value concerns that a more modern FO would shy away from?
Keith Law: Heh, I didn’t think of that, but it’s a good point. I think the industry sense is that the Tigers are a good bit behind other teams in the analytics department.

John: Any rumblings about who the Phillies are considering for the Almaraz vacancy?
Keith Law: Yes, but nothing I can share, sorry.

Bill: Can we start with the idea that a U.S. President can’t ever have a conversation with another foreign leader about investigating his opponent…and go from there? I can’t believe we even have to argue that point.
Keith Law: Well, we had previously said that a US President had to divulge his tax returns, and divest himself of most of his assets, and not use the office for personal financial gain, yet here we are.

dave: Did you see bernie sanders tweet saying Billionares should not exist?? smh..
Keith Law: I did. I understand his point, although I’m not sure that sound byte is going to hit well with enough voters to make it beneficial. People get to billion-dollar wealth because our economic system allows it, and because our capital gains tax rate is so low.

Zac: Jack Morris just said if the Tigers rank Torkelson and Hancock the same they should take the pitcher because he says pitching prospects hold more value than hitters…What are your thoughts on that?
Keith Law: I know you’re shocked, but he has it backwards.

jimmyb: As a pretty accomplished home chef, I’m hoping you can help me with something I’m struggling with. I’ve been using (brand) for dinnertime, and really am enjoying the convenience and ease of meal prep, but without sacrificing complexity or flavor. However, I feel like I’m cheating. I’ve got a busy schedule, so meal planning is kind of out of the question – is there something wrong with using these services?
Keith Law: Sorry, I took the brand out just so it doesn’t look like an ad, but jimmyb is talking about one of those companies that deliver ingredients and recipes to you. I see absolutely nothing wrong with using them if you’re happy with the ingredient quality. You’re cooking, and that’s better than eating out or eating lots of highly processed foods.

Chris: Do you see the baseball changing next year?
Keith Law: Yes but I have no idea how.

Ron: Taking my 10 year old daughter to Cooperstown next month – Have not been there for 25 years maybe (all I remember is the who’s on first movie) – any suggestions on exhibits to avoid and must see – thanks
Keith Law: I actually haven’t been since 1989.
Keith Law: It’s not close to me … or to anything else.

Moe Mentum: Which movies from your own childhood (70s or 80s) have you shared with your daughter? And were they met with adulation or contempt?
Keith Law: She bailed on the Dark Crystal! That was a bummer. But she loved Who Framed Roger Rabbit? and I loved it just as much as an adult.

JR: Do you cook as much as you used as a single guy? Obviously if you are with your daughter/GF I’m sure you still do, but do you enjoy “cooking for one” or do you eat out more instead? If so, what’s your game plan when cooking solo? small portions or plan on leftovers?
Keith Law: Plan on leftovers, usually. Good nights to experiment; I can always feed myself if something goes horribly wrong. Now that the season is ending I’ll also probably go see some movies in Philly on those nights and eat up there.

Dallas: According to report from Tim Britton on the Athletic, the Mets worked with Amed Rosario on positioning his feet. Since the work, I’ve noticed his DRS which was horrendous has basically stayed the same while his UZR has improved to just about average. I think a little more experience for Amed may end up in making your grades on him look good.
Keith Law: I didn’t see that, but thank you, I’m glad to hear it as I saw Rosario as a prospect and never thought he’d struggle this much in the field.

Chris: O/U on Wheeler total dollars this offseason: $65M
Keith Law: Buster thinks over and he tracks this more than I do.

Stu: Do either Zach Collins or Jake Rogers have futures besides maybe backup catching?
Keith Law: Rogers is a perfect backup for me – good defensive catcher without much bat. Collins is a really bad catcher with power and I don’t know what that is in MLB today

Chris: O/U McNeil BA in 2020: .300
Keith Law: Probably the under; he’s way under that in the second half. Seems like he’s selling out just a little for power, which isn’t a bad tradeoff.

Nick: Hey KLaw, no question, I just wanted to say thanks for all you do. We had a very slight dustup a few years ago when I was in college over Austin Romine and his defensive abilities at catcher. All these years later, I just wanted to say, you were very right at the time. I subscribe to insider entirely for your content. And your openness with mental health has helped me a lot. Thanks again, I really enjoy reading your work.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I don’t remember the dustup but I’m glad I was right. (I kid!)

Joe: Do team executives from losing clubs believe the only way to become competitive is to lose as many games as possible for several years in order to build their prospect base? Since Houston and the Cubs were successful, it seems like this is a road map for many teams.
The system has to change – five teams began this season in a race to the bottom and its not likely to change next year. As much as I hate the NBA lottery system, it seems like the way to go – MLB should provide no incentive to build a last place team. Thoughts?
Keith Law: It’s an easy (lazy?) strategy. I would love to see MLB alter the top of the draft to discourage this.

TomBruno23: Great call on Omaha, we took our three kids (ages 7,5,3) there last Thanksgiving weekend and were very impressed with all the things to do and food to eat)
Keith Law: Very walkable downtown with lots to do/eat. Great board game cafe maybe 10 minutes outside of downtown called Spielbound.

Jw: Wait, you were asked a question about coming back to ESPN. What did I miss? You posted a story on espn today. So confused.
Keith Law: Sorry to confuse everyone – I am still at ESPN, but my contract is up on December 31st. I have made no decisions on my future yet.

Todd: Josh Stowers or Caanan Smith legit OF prospects for the Yankees?
Keith Law: I mentioned Smith in a previous chat – I think he’s a potential extra guy, maybe a little more. Not a Stowers believer.

Hector: Would a package starting with Vaughn and Madrigal be enough to get Mookie on the South Side. Would it be worth it for the White Sox with no assurances Mookie re-signs with them
Keith Law: I don’t see what Madrigal does for the Red Sox.

Arnold: Just curious…who are the top high school or college prospects that you hope to personally go see in the Spring?
Keith Law: I’ll decide that as we get closer; it depends as much on budget and my own schedule – I have a book coming out in April, and that will require some of my time too – as anything else.

Drew: Are you a Baroness fan, and if so, what are your thoughts on their latest record?
Keith Law: I’ve listened to a bunch of their previous stuff but nothing ever grabs me. It’s great from a technical perspective but I don’t connect with the songs.

Sedona: Has Brady Singer’s AA performance changed your valuation at all?
Keith Law: No, since nothing about him has changed.

Joey: How do you grade pitchers deliveries? You talk a lot about “bad delivery” but you never once have indicated what it is you like/dislike
Keith Law: That’s utterly and completely false. When I write up players, I explain what I do and don’t like about their deliveries.
Keith Law: If you’re only reading my chats, well, the bulk of my content is on ESPN.com.

Jeff: Is Tatis the most probable candidate to be a perennial MVP the next 10 years?
Keith Law: Acuna certainly gives him a run for his money there.

Ryan: What do you think the floor is for Tatis next season. 30/30 with maybe outside shot at 40/40 if he stays healthy for the whole season?
Keith Law: I wonder if they try to get him to steal a bit less so he doesn’t get hurt.

J.: Weeks ago you mentioned something about the Tigers not having any all-time draft busts – care to share the reason why?
Keith Law: I didn’t say that.

Stu (UK): I’m going to a World Series game! What city should I be hoping for? What would be most disappointing? -Cheers, Stu
Keith Law: I mean, hard to beat NY or LA. Oakland means you can stay in San Francisco. Don’t sleep on Minneapolis which is a wonderful city, even when it’s cold.

Buddy: Scherzer is still great obviously, but lefties roughed him up a bit this year. Any concern on your end?
Keith Law: Not yet. One-year platoon splits can be misleading.

Joey Joe Joe: Jakson Reetz back to being a prospect?
Keith Law: Not really.

Jeff: A lot of comparisons between Judge and Alonso – is Judge the better overall player?
Keith Law: Fully healthy, yes.

Zach: Re: Meal Prep. I used meal prep in the past to learn new recipes and/or cooking techniques. Not to use 52 weeks a year. Sometimes cookbooks can be too intimidating, it’s different when the ingredients are already there and you’re “forced” to try
Keith Law: Great point. I’m never going to shame anyone for cooking their way and not “my” way. Hell, my way is a bit over the top because I work from home and I can start dinner at 2 pm if I want.

Nick: Fan of The Good Place? Final season premier tonight!
Keith Law: I am, but haven’t watched S3 yet. That’s a show I have to binge … the episode cliffhangers stress me out.

Todd: If you think billionaires should exist, something inside you is broken
Keith Law: That’s not helpful either. There is actual research on the harm of income inequality, such as in rising crime rates, but simply attacking billionaires for being billionaires isn’t going to change anyone’s minds.

dave: whens the last time a team had a 1-2 punch like the stros do/ are they WS faves for you?
Keith Law: I would pick them right now but I don’t really think there’s such a thing as a playoff “favorite” since any team that gets into the playoffs can win, and statements about any team being much more likely than another one to win a series/the whole thing are not supported by history.

Buddy: Whatever you decide, PLEASE keep these chats going next year and beyond.
Keith Law: They’ll still be here, trust me.

Jeff: Is Mike Trout the best player you’ve ever seen in all your years of doing this?
Keith Law: Yes.

Mevo: If you are Theo Epstein, would you trade Biaz for luis Severino 1 for 1? Would yanks do that?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t trade for Severino coming off a year where he had a significant shoulder issue.

Buddy: Doesn’t “utterly” mean the same thing as “completely”?
Keith Law: Totally.

Cameron: I asked on periscope what the best restaurant in Houston was and I didn’t write it down and slipped my mind. Can you remind me, please. Thanks.
Keith Law: Xochi. Get the duck and the chocolate river/rocks thing.

Jon: FWIW, I just red Tom Cotton said “no comment” on the allegation of WH trying to bury the report. The fact that a guy like him didn’t jump to “this is all a farse by the democrats to renew the mueller report” is, in my view, a little telling that this is a bigger deal.
Keith Law: That’s interesting. Also, Red Tom Cotton is a pretty good nickname.

Andy: LOL@ Tigers not having draft busts. It was only 22 years ago that 1-1 in the draft was a relief pitcher.
Keith Law: Yeah and they’ve whiffed on a lot of high picks. Scott Moore. Jacob Turner.

Robbie: Hey Keith, appreciate the chat as always. Do you see there being anyone in the braves minor league system with the potential to be a star outside of Pache?
Keith Law: Sure, several guys. Waters maybe, although I’m a little lighter on him with his low walk rate. Contreras could be. One of those pitchers has to be a star … it would be improbable that none of them turns out to be more than an average starter.

JP: Report on Jaleo….amazing (and pricey, obviously). Croquetas, gambas al ajillo, and chorizo were all out of this world, along with the spanish wine. disappointed we didn’t get the paella. highly recommend.
Keith Law: Dying to get down there to support Chef Andres.

Craig: You’ve talked about guys that you got wrong. Which scouting report are you most proud of, where you nailed a guy’s potential (or lack thereof) exactly, while most of the industry was wrong?
Keith Law: Part of why I don’t love talking about that is that so many are of the form that I said a player wasn’t good, got shit for it, and was right. It feels a bit tacky. I am pleased to see Lucas Giolito justify my long-held faith in him, or Jorge Soler finally show at least some of the potential I saw from him back in the AZL.

Diamondbacks: Purely scouting the stat line here, but Jamie Westbrook in the DBacks system put up some pretty good numbers. Very little out there about him though…what’s the story? He’s 25, so maybe a little old for his level. Is he a butcher in the field or something?
Keith Law: Doesn’t really have a position, not a good swing either.

John: What position is Devers long term?
Keith Law: Third base.

Joe: Better than Bonds?
Keith Law: Bonds was already huge when I saw him, and no longer the elite defender he was in the 1990s.

Chris: Your readers enjoy these chats. But why do you?
Keith Law: Why not? It’s fun to talk to you guys (most of you guys, at least!). I get to crack jokes and answer questions that many of you have, and sometimes I learn stuff too, or get ideas for future content. It is tiring, because I have to be “on” for an hour or more, but I do enjoy them.

Ted: More likely to get more starts in the Rangers rotation next year? Brock Burke or Palumbo?
Keith Law: I feel like both guys get 20+ starts.

Tim Robinson: The President basically suggested the whistleblower and source should be killed. Perfectly normal Thursday here.
Keith Law: Yep. And, again, the GOP falls in line. Mo Brooks did. Thom Tillis did. It’s astonishing.

Adam: You should try Crujiente while youre in PHX. Best Tacos I have ever had!
Keith Law: I tried to get there in the spring but there was something … maybe weird hours? … that prevented me. Thanks.

Jeff: Any general advice for a new parent?
Keith Law: Buy “The Happiest Baby on the Block.” And try to get whatever sleep you can. My ex-wife and I eventually settled on alternating nights – I would feed our daughter one night, she would feed her the next – so every night somebody got something approximating a full night of sleep. It worked for us; experiment and figure out what works for you.

Eric: The New York Times just basically gave really specific identifying information about the whistleblower. Dean Baquet should be ashamed of himself for putting that info in the paper of record.
Keith Law: I’ll add it to the list of things Baquet should be ashamed of, behind employing Bret Stephens and Bari Weiss for their opinions.

Andy: Your long-time readers remember the ones you got crap about for saying they weren’t very good. Junior Lake is dominating the Mexican League though.
Keith Law: Yep. Not the only Cub on that secret list of mine, either.

Eric: Advice for a new parent: onesies are stretchy at the top so they can be put on/taken off from the bottom without having to go over the head. helps a lot when a newborn is sleeping.
Keith Law: Oh god, I forgot about onesies…
Keith Law: My daughter is 13, folks. Longtime readers probably remember me talking about her when she was a baby, doing chats while she napped. They grow up fast.

Eric: I don’t know a “Bret Stephens.” Only a “Bedbug Stephens.”
Keith Law: Yep, my mistake. That’s the guy.
Keith Law: Thanks for all the questions this week! I will try to do one more next week and then skip the week I’m in Arizona. I am buried in book-writing right now – past 3/4 of my word count, at least – but I’m trying to at least keep to a regular chat/Periscope schedule for the time being. Enjoy this last weekend of regular-season baseball!

ESPN+ subscribers can see my annual list of players I was wrong about, which includes Shane Bieber and Jeff McNeil.

Keith Law: The wind will carry us. Klawchat.

Dana: I’m curious what you thought of Brett Gardner as a prospect. Probably didn’t think he’d be a consistent 15-25 homer guy?
Keith Law: I think (hope) he was on one of the earliest versions of the “guys I got wrong” column. He had no power in college and his swing wasn’t geared for it at all. He really remade himself into someone who had average power and could take particular advantage of Yankee Stadium’s RF fence. That plus CF level defense in LF made him kind of a star, if not necessarily widely known as one.

Marani: So, who wins AL MVP now?
Keith Law: Trout.

Moe Mentum: Have you seen any evolution in how Gold Gloves are awarded in recent years, or is it still pretty much a joke? Do you think these awards will ever improve their perception among the Smart Baseball generation?
Keith Law: I know the process is better than it used to be but I still do not take them seriously.

TP: You have mentioned Austin as a potential MLB expansion city. While there would be a lot of interest down here, there has also been a lot of backlash to using public land for the new, privately financed MLS stadium. Politically, Austin is similar to Portland, OR, and it is unlikely that there would be political support for a publicly funded stadium within the city limits. Austin has a long history of opposing such ideas (which is one reason the Express play in Round Rock). San Antonio might be more realistic if MLB wants a third team in Texas.
Keith Law: I would think any stadium location would be chosen to take advantage of both metro areas, which are only about 80 miles apart and could make a mammoth media market – especially with just one major league sports team (the Spurs) between them. Austin has somewhat better demographics, though.

BigDaddeh: Do different teams treat the AFL different or is it just a year by year thing? The Yankees seemed to really punt on this year’s attendees
Keith Law: Some teams always send org guys; some send real prospects. It’s a philosophical thing. I would always send guys who were either real prospects or 40-man bubble guys.

Moe Mentum: Fill in the blank for yourself (past or present) : I’m likely interested in any movie that has _______ acting in (or producing or directing) it.
Keith Law: I’ve seen about 20 Hitchcock movies and maybe 15 Cary Grant movies. I’ll also watch anything Billy Wilder did.

AJ: Who plays (or should play) the middle infield positions for the Reds in 2020? VanMeter just doesn’t look like a regular at this point, nor does Peraza.
Keith Law: I’d return Senzel to 2b and try to find a better CF option.

Nate: Keith, when trying to evaluate pitchers, the difference between fWAR and bWAR is confusing. Reynaldo Lopez, for instance, has been worth 2.3 fWAR (this year and last) while only being worth 0.6 bWAR. How would you best look at these two numbers in trying to evaluate whether he should be used as a back-end starter or potentially high leverage reliever moving forward?
Keith Law: Part of that difference is fWAR’s assumption that his LOB% is going to regress to league-average levels. Given how homer-prone he is, and the fact that he wasn’t appreciably worse from the stretch this year (he was actually better!), I’m not sure I buy into that. I always look at both versions, but I think the 2.3 for this year probably overstates his future value.

Jackie: Did you know that Matt Barnes is tied for third in most career wins for the Red Sox in this century by a homegrown pitcher — tied with the immortal Felix Doubront, behind Lester and Buchholz. Why have the Red Sox been so terrible for so long at developing starting pitching? Everyday players, they’re great — Betts, Boegarts, Devers, Benintendi, etc. But they can’t draft a pitcher to save their lives. Is it an incorrect organization philosophy, bad luck, bad minor league coaching?
Keith Law: It’s not the drafting … Trey Ball was a huge miss, but since him, they’ve taken Groome (consensus top 3ish guy in the class, still a prospect), Kopech in the comp round (still a great prospect, used to acquire Sale), and Houck (role unclear but absolutely a prospect). Look out for Thad Ward too – fifth rounder from 2018. They’ve traded some guys and had some developmental misses, but I think on the whole the bigger issue is a lack of numbers. They haven’t used that many high picks on pitchers, preferring to draft bats and trade for or sign arms.

Portmantoter: Hi Keith. I’m listening to the audiobook of ‘Smart Baseball’ right now and really enjoying it. I wanted to ask if you had input into who would be the narrator — I was hoping to hear your voice when I turned it on. And couldn’t anybody tell the poor guy that it’s pronounced Laj-a-way? Thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: They asked me if I wanted to listen to the three candidates but I said no as I was in the middle of something – maybe writing my top 100.

BigDaddeh: I know it’s just a few months into the career, but seeing Witt Jr in the top 10 of prospect lists seems off. Are you still all in?
Keith Law: He’s not in my top 10.

Mark: What’s a realistic trade for Mookie Betts this offseason and should the BoSox consider it given their financial commitments on the books and what it would take to sign him long-term? Would 1 year of Betts be worth multiple top 100 prospects to the team getting him? Is 1 top 25 prospect enough?
Keith Law: If you’re a team on the cusp of a playoff spot, yes, it’s probably worth giving up two of your top prospects for the boost Betts would give you. I can see many teams that would love an immediate six-win gain (conservatively) in the standings.

Jerry: Astros are about to make it through a full season without issuing an intentional BB. Assuming this makes KLAW happy….
Keith Law: Extremely.

Arnold : Nice scene at Fenway the other night with Mike catching Granddaddy Yaz’s 1st pitch (a strike!), then homering and expertly playing a ball off the Green Monster like Carl used to do. Young Yaz’s 20 jacks is more pop than the Giants have seen in years. Is that repeatable or is it likely that pitchers will figure him out with a year’s worth of scouting?
Keith Law: I think this is entirely the juiced ball. He’s never been a prospect beyond maybe an emergency callup.

Mark: Has Tim Anderson and Moncada shown enough defensive skills to stay in their respective positions long-term? Do you believe changing positions can negatively impact a player’s offensive production?
Keith Law: Yes to both players, yes to the latter question but it will vary by player.

Harper – Bat speed: Is there any chatter in the scouting community about Bryce Harper’s bat speed and/or ? His exit velo numbers aren’t awful, but watching him in person it really looks like he’s cheating to pull and it leaves him really exposed to high and away fastballs. He’s had a ton of injuries at a young age, and I worry we’ll never see anything resembling his 2015 season again.
Keith Law: Nope, have neither heard nor seen any such thing.

Felix: I’ve heard rumblings in chats that Casey Mize wasn’t the same when he came back from injury. What was the issue and how much concern should there be?
Keith Law: Don’t think he came back healthy. Stuff was much less crisp. Hoping it’s nothing, but aware there’s a good chance it’s a serious injury.

JT: I’ve been curious about a component of BA: is it possible that the lower the level of competition it is, the more important it becomes?
Keith Law: In general, no. There are, however, absolutely reasons to be concerned when, say, a guy with a plus hit tool fails to hit for average AND isn’t making quality contact on top of that.

Epsthoyer: Enjoy your chats, Klaw. My dilemma…JHey is not opting out, so do I trade Schwarbs and resign Castellanos or allow myself to believe that 2nd half Kyle is a sign of better things to come and fix the lineup through free agency (hello Rendon)?
Keith Law: Don’t you have to make a run at Rendon? Every contender that can sign him should be trying to do so. Best FA bat on the market, bar none.

Ian: Should Justin Trudeau resign and/or end is campaign?
Keith Law: Yes.

Rich: Did you see Chris Paddock having the year he did? Can he front a playoff caliber team’s rotation or do you think he’s more a #2 type in a playoff rotation?
Keith Law: Yes, I’m all in on him, as I mentioned in today’s column.

Champdo: Can Isaac Paredes be an above average regular?
Keith Law: Can, yes. Will, ehhh … needs a position, for one thing, and there is no projection left there whatsoever.

Brian: What do you think the Padres should do at 2B next year? Do they give Urias the first crack at the job?
Keith Law: Yes.

Brian: Is Ronny Henriquez going to be a big riser in the prospect rankings this winter? Numbers are impressive for a 19 year old in A Ball.
Keith Law: Age relative to league is a much less important indicator for pitchers – and his numbers are a mixed bag. Not saying he’s bad, just that your premise needs work.

Ben: What kind of MLB player does Austin Martin project to be? More Swanson or Bregman?
Keith Law: He’s not like either of those guys but I think he has star upside.

Ben: Who puts up better MLB OPS’s: Vaughn or Torkelson?
Keith Law: I don’t like or use OPS. It’s a math error. Vaughn is the better pure hitter. Torkelson will hit for more power.

G: I understand this Vazquez situation was out of the Pirates organizational control, but the entire team is in disarray, fights in the clubhouse, and their development of pitchers has been terrible under the current administration (Morton, Cole, Glasnow all improved dramatically after leaving.) Should everyone from the President down be fired at this point?
Keith Law: Lindsey Adler pointed out on Twitter yesterday that ownership was totally absent when the Vazquez news broke, and to me that’s a real symptom of the bigger problem there. Yeah, Hurdle’s probably toast, but he was put in an impossible situation.

Brian: What are you looking for next season to buy Jhoan Duran as a starter?
Keith Law: He’s been missing more bats with his fastball which I’d say is a very good sign.

Scott Upham: Like the Eugenio Suarez trade debacle, will Red Sox fans eventually regret the huge package Dombrowski sent to the White Sox for Sale (Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz)?
Keith Law: It helped the Sox win a World Series. That’s what you want, right?

Mike: I think Brandon Woodruff is a prime guy to become a #2 next year, what are your thoughts on him, health permitting?
Keith Law: Yes, he got an honorable mention on my breakouts column in March, and kind of made me look bad for not talking him up more until he got hurt!

Matt: Why isn’t my [player from my favorite team] on your list of players you were wrong about. I know you get dumb questions like this about specific players, but what sorts of things make you think a player is different than what you expected as opposed to over-performing and due to regress?
Keith Law: Two things: Some sustained level of performance at a new level – so, you know, half a season ain’t it, chief – and some tangible explanation for why the player is different. That could be a chance in mechanics or stuff, or something I missed when evaluating him.

Dallas: Dumb question: is it more likely someone trying to throw high strikes misses down (thus middle of the plate) or someone trying to keep the ball down misses up (middle of the plate)?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to that. My gut says neither, but that’s pure guessing.

Yan: How do you assess Corbin Martin assuming he fully comes back from TJ? Still a #2-3 type arm?
Keith Law: Yes.

Adam: When evaluating AJ Preller’s tenure as GM of the Padres, are the Myers and Hosmer contracts fireable offenses?
Keith Law: No, and besides, you don’t know if the Hosmer deal was Preller – it is unlike every other deal he’s done – or ownership.

section 34: Can you say nice things about the Orioles?
Keith Law: Their minor league pitching looks improved.

Carl: Miguel Yajure – What kind of upside does he have? How would you rank him against Gil, Roansy Contreras, and Luis Medina?
Keith Law: More chance to start than Gil. Medina is still kind of a wild card – seemed like he figured out some consistency late this season, always had the athleticism and enough of a repeatable delivery to get to this, but you have to see him do it for more than a third of a year.

Jack: Who should the A’s start in the Wildcard game? Fiers? Manaea? Hendriks (lol)?
Keith Law: Isn’t Fiers hurt?

Scott Upham: Is Tanner Houck a legit SP? Where does he slot in the Sox rotation eventually? Looks like a back end starter/middle reliever to me.
Keith Law: I think more likely reliever but am not at 100%.

Jimmy Kimmel: When looking at Pacific Coast League offensive statistics, are wRC+ and wOBA the only stats worth note?
Keith Law: No. I actually never look at wRC+ or wOBA for minor leaguers. It can be wildly misleading.

Reader: Parker Mushinski had a nice little season in Fayetteville albeit older for the level. Does he have MLB potential?
Keith Law: Saw him last week. He does not.

Marc: Not so much a question, but looking back at your older annual players you missed on pieces a lot of those guys actually didn’t turn out to be very good. Most of them were 1-2 good year(s) and done guys. Maybe you need to do a players I thought I missed on, but actually I was kind of right about column.
Keith Law: I’ve noticed a few of those but talking about it feels crass. No takebacks, right?

Jordan: What do the Astros do with Kyle Tucker next season? He has absolutely nothing left to prove in Triple-A, but the outfield is still crowded with Springer, Reddick and Brantley. Do they try and move on from Gurriel and stick Tucker at 1B?
Keith Law: I think he’s trade bait.

Dallas: Cavan Biggio hit for the cycle yet he wasn’t listed in your “I’m wrong” column? I’m confused.
Keith Law: That was funny.
Keith Law: I did point out to some crank on Twitter that other recent cycles came from Brandon Barnes (0.8 career WAR) and Jake Bauers (-0.6).

Reggie: Does Emerson Hancock have a Mize level ceiling if he puts together another big year?
Keith Law: I don’t quite think so.

Colin: Not really a question but just want to say that I’m happy Kolten Wong finally broke out after getting away from Matheny and want to give you credit for always being high on him even as Matheny dicked him around.
Keith Law: To be fair, I was low on him at first, then realized he was better than I thought, and got on Matheny for dicking around with him.

Dan: Yordan Alvarez tore up the MLB like the fucking dance floor this year, to the tune of a .318/.419/.671 line in 339 PAs with a 50 HR full season pace. I know you weren’t high on him as a prospect but has this year changed your expectations for his longterm potential, provided he can play at DH?
Keith Law: I never said anything remotely negative about his bat. It’s all about his lack of a position and the poor long-term outlook for a player with his body and poor athleticism. He can certainly hit and has power, although the 50 HR pace isn’t quite so special as it was a few years ago.

Jax: Adrian Houser’s starts have been somewhat uneven this year. He still project as a starter for you? He was tremendous out of the bullpen. Maybe he’s better suited there?
Keith Law: Still has starter stuff/build.

Pat D: Considering all of the stonewalling by this White House (evidently continuing as we speak), how am I supposed to think that this won’t be the norm going forward, regardless of what party occupies the WH and Congress?
Keith Law: I share your concern that this – not just the stonewalling, but the persistent lying and gaslighting – is the new normal.

Reader: The Astros sent Cody Deason to the AFL, did you get to see him in the Carolina league? Anything there?
Keith Law: Saw him too, and no, not really.

Curious George : I read an article about growth plate testing done on Ohtani as an amateur to project his growth expectancy at maturity. Is this common practice by organized baseball as part of the amateur scouting process?
Keith Law: I have never heard of this before and it kind of weirds me out, to be honest. I don’t want DNA testing either.

David: Keith, who do you think the Red Sox will target as their GM? And is there any chance Raquel Ferreira stays in charge?
Keith Law: Someone from outside the org with some name value. I have not heard anything to make me think Ferreira will or should stay in charge.

Craig: Orlando Arcia has been a replacement-level shortstop for the last two years and has been discussed as a possible non-tender candidate for this off-season. His talent and potential are obvious, but so is his lack of production. Should the Brewers keep him around in the hopes that he will realize that potential (like Carlos Gomez did) or stop throwing good playing time after bad?
Keith Law: If they’re trying to contend in 2020, they should at least explore other options. He’ll be 25 next year, young enough to still improve, but their ability to wait on that – and risk another cipher year at the plate – depends on their overall plan for the year.

David: Do you drink dairy milk?
Keith Law: Yes. Lactose-free, of course.

Ricof: Buying or selling Griffin Canning moving foward?
Keith Law: Buying if healthy but higher than average injury risk.

Mike: Can the pirates just cut vasquez right now?
Keith Law: No, they can not.

ScottyD in Downingtown: Who ends up being a more successful starter on their career – Puk or Luzardo?
Keith Law: I lean Puk.

Jake: Thanks for doing the “Players I was wrong about” articles. I find them fascinating because you not only admit you were wrong, but examine why you missed on a guy, what he’s changed or what you might have missed. The Castillo bit was the most interesting because you discussed how being wrong about him has had an impact on how you rate Paddack. I get to the end of this and realize I don’t really have a question, but I did want to let you know I appreciate what you’re doing and sharing the process with us.
Keith Law: It’s why I do them. Glad you enjoy those columns.

Mark: I like your music write-ups and use them to find new artists, songs, etc. Have you watched any of the Ken Burns Country Music episodes? Outside of my fondness for Johnny Cash, I wouldn’t call myself a country fan, but Ken Burns has done a fantastic job IMO.
Keith Law: Really not a fan of country music.

Bradf: You wrote earlier in the year that Austin Beck didn’t look good and he backed it up with a subpar year. Are you optimistic that he still possesses the tools to improve and eventually make it as a solid contributor in the majors? Thanks Keith.
Keith Law: I would say I’m pessimistic.

Andy: As I Lay Dying has a new album coming out. Everyone should entirely avoid this right? I mean dude served his time, but is still a giant POS.
Keith Law: Never liked their music anyway, but yeah, I could not fucking believe he was out of jail and recording again.

addoeh: From your article today on players you’ve missed on, it looks like Luis Castillo’s success has made you re-evaluate pitchers with a similar profile like Paddock. Have any other players had an impact on how you evaluate similar players going forward?
Keith Law: Absolutely. Every miss is a learning opportunity.

Adam: Does Soroka have better velo now than when you were not as high on him? (the delivery was your main contention i believe)
Keith Law: No, don’t think that’s changed.

Drew: Will the Cardinals sending Dylan Carlson home to “add muscle” instead of playing in the AFL benefit him?
Keith Law: I would have loved to have seen him play more, but he must also be exhausted from the long season. He’s played a lot, and very well, against tough competition.

JR: Enjoyed the guys you were wrong about column. Of the players you mentioned, who do you see as most likely to sustain their current production, and who do you see regressing?
Keith Law: I led with Bieber because I think he’s the most ‘real’ of the group. McNeil has already shown some regression, so while I don’t predict a big flop I think we may have seen his peak.

Jerry skurnik: While we in NYC focus on Edwin Diaz’ disastrous record, “proven closers” around MLB have been pretty terrible all season. Do you have any thoughts on why? Juiced ball?
Keith Law: The changed baseball has absolutely affected some pitchers more than others – for example, I think it’s played havoc with Diaz’s slider.

addoeh: Will Joey Bagodonuts or Tommy Hackenstein make your new book?
Keith Law: Joey Bagodonuts is in the new book. I can confirm this.

A big dumb idiot: What are the mechanics of a guy like Jordan Groshans being a decenly regarded mid first rounder to a consensus top 100 guy despite missing the whole season? It it similar to amateur scouting where a few looks displayed new and real skills?
Keith Law: For me, it was hearing a few pro scouts who caught him early say they bought his approach and power.

JJ: Speaking of Trout and the MVP, it seems like every years there’s an argument of Trout’s individual greatness vs. the non-competitiveness of the Angels. This seems, in large part, to be fueled by the BBWAA’s (intentional?) vagueness in defining the MVP. If you were asked to boil the award description down to one sentence, what would you say?
Keith Law: Which player did the most on the field to increase his team’s win total in that season? He’s the MVP.

Mike: Is the reason Felipe Vasquez wasn’t traded before the trade deadline due to the recent news? Did teams know?
Keith Law: Nobody knew. That’s kind of gross.

Steve: “It helped the Sox win a World Series. That’s what you want, right?” Unless you’re one of the vast majority of MLB owners and GMs who seem to value cost control and “glide slopes” above all else.
Keith Law: Yeah, winning the efficiency trophy isn’t really the ideal goal. I’m a prospect guy, and I still say trade prospects if it gives you a chance to win.

WhiteSoxAndy: Has the juiced ball reduced the value of outfield defense? Since the ball is flying out of the park anyway, is it better to just have power bats out there and not be concerned with average at best defense?
Keith Law: No, that doesn’t quite make sense … some balls that would have fallen in just behind the infield become playable for outfielders, and balls are coming at all fielders faster than ever.

Josh Nelson: Who doesn’t make the playoffs: Nationals, Cubs, or Brewers?
Keith Law: I think the safe guess is the Nats make it and the other two are in a dogfight that goes to game 162 (or 163!).
Keith Law: Yikes, Domingo German is on administrative leave for a possible domestic violence policy violation.

Kevin: Is Matthew liberatore a part of Tampa’s rotation in mid 2020?
Keith Law: Too soon.

Scott: I was happy to see Jeter Downs get honorable mention in your Prospect of the Year column.
Do you think his bat profiles well enough to carry him regardless of a possible position switch to CF?
Keith Law: Yes, it does, but why not 2b?

Jacob deGrom: Did anyone think I would becomne the best of the Mets starters? I was never ranked a shigh as Harvey, Wheeler, Matz or Noah
Keith Law: I think I can say this safely now. I know one person who believed in deGrom before anyone else in the industry: Paul Depodesta.

Brian: How come the Tigers seemingly always have solid pitching prospests but can never draft a postional player. Avila seems to be doing the same thing Dombrowski did. Hill was the last ” guy”
Keith Law: I think they still overdraft ‘name’ guys and focus more on traditional tools than most other clubs. They’ll nearly always be in a position where they think a player slipped to them, but in fact the rest of the industry has decided based on additional information that the player isn’t as good as previously thought.
Keith Law: Hill is a bit of an exception, though … his defense was there, he just hasn’t hit consistently or developed enough of an eye at the plate to get to it.

Steve: If Miguel Yajure makes it in MLB, I hope his nickname ends up “Force Yajure”.
Keith Law: That is excellent.

Ian: Cycles aside, Cavan Biggio’s combination of baserunning, defensive versatility, and power/patience at the plate seems at least interesting. What are the red flags? Where do you see him regressing?
Keith Law: He’s not good at any position, and what power? I checked yesterday and he ranked around 180th in HR this year – with 4 of his 14 coming off the Orioles, the worst pitching staff in baseball (en route to 300 HR allowed this year). The sudden optimism seems to be mostly because he’s had an outlier September.

Portmantotebag: Is Victor Reyes (.298/.329.421 with speed) growing into a regular, even if a second-division regular, instead of a 4th OF, or is it all still SSS?
Keith Law: Chance for a regular. Definite fourth OF.

Mikhail Bulgakov: I would love a return to the old baseball, but what incentive does Manfred have to make sure that happens?
Keith Law: The union could go a long way to making it happen. Pitchers aren’t happy.

JR: you’ve been doing these chats for about 15 years now, right? (Thank you BTW). How have the questions changed over the years, if at all? Do you think you get better questions now or the same? Do you get accused of bias as often? just as many dumbasses?
Keith Law: Over 13 years. First one was July 2006. Question quality improved when I had to move them here from ESPN.com. Still plenty of trolls and dumbasses, but I think the regulars among you help drown them out.

Arnold: If Yaz’s 20 HRs are entirely the product of the juiced ball, what does that say about the rest of the Giants’ team, where only one player, Pillar, has more HRs (21) in 200+ more ABs?
Keith Law: It says exactly what you think it says, and I’m sorry.

Josh: There seems to be some between the lines discussion about Will Smith’s catching. Talk about Ryu not as good with him, etc. Just noise or a little signal there? Not sure how much you have watched him since he’s been in the bigs
Keith Law: That sounds like bullshit to me. Nothing but raves for Smith’s catching all the way back to Louisville where he caught McKay.

Andy: Keith–your thoughts on DD being fire for doing what was seemingly his exact effin’ mandate?
Keith Law: That’s not really accurate.

Tim: You’ve written that Trevor Bauer’s 2018 season now looks like an outlier. Going into this year, were you thinking it was probably a fluke year?
Keith Law: I will be honest: I don’t think I gave it enough thought either way.

Scott: If the season ended today, who is Keith Law’s NL MVP?
Keith Law: Bellinger.

Ridley: On Twitter, Geraldo Rivera asked “At what point should a guy’s past no longer be counted against him?” Is it just me, or was that more of an admission of guilt than a question?

(p.s. The issue was as much with Kavanaugh lying about his past as with the contents of said past.)
Keith Law: Yikes. Also, the lying is the problem here. He lied under oath to Congress. That should be a disqualifying condition for any judicial candidate.

Alex: Whenever my brother-in-law starts getting on my nerves, I will invariably tell him, “At their peaks, Nomar was better than Jeter, and you know it.” It drives him nuts when I say this, but is it accurate?
Keith Law: Depends on how you say it. “Nomah was bettah than Jeetah” would be more powerful than the way you wrote it.

Todd: Can Jonathan Loaisiga be a real back end of the pen option?
Keith Law: Yes.

Kyle: Pete Alonso would be the most negatively affected player if the Happy Fun Ball goes away next year, right?
Keith Law: He’d still be an above-average regular, but guys like him and Suarez wouldn’t be 50 HR hitters.

Heather: As a Red Sox fan, in the last few years I’ve enjoyed watching Devers, Xander, and Mookie get better from year to year. Andrew Benintendi, however, doesn’t seem to be getting any better. It’s like he came into the league as a slightly above average player, and has never changed. Does he have another level, or is this it?
Keith Law: If anything he’s gone backwards this year. It’s surprising as he’s had a solid year vs LHP, which seemed like his big weakness, but it turns out he’s just not hit for anything close to the power projected for him (including myself in that, I would have thought the Happy Fun Ball would mean 30 HR).
Keith Law: I want to believe there’s another level but have no specific reason to argue that.

Bruce: Corey Seager came back this year after a couple of major injuries. What are your thoughts on his season and do you expect him to put up better numbers offensively next year after having an offseason where he does not have rehab? Do you expect Seager to move off SS for Lux in the near future?
Keith Law: The Dodgers seem disinclined to move Seager, and 3b is occupied at the moment. Not sure where else he would go.

Lee: Why is everyone talking like the Red Sox won’t re-sign Betts? Seems to me that with the Price and Sale contracts, they are pretty well committed to going over the luxury tax for the foreseeable future. Why would they all of a sudden pull back when one of the best players of his generation is up for free agency?
Keith Law: People are assuming that the Dombrowski firing indicates, at least on some level, an unwillingness to continue to blow past the LT threshold.

Nick: What is Zac Gallen going forward? Seems like a nice get by the ‘Backs.
Keith Law: Nice get for them indeed. Starter, not a high ceiling one.

Tony: Do you avoid use of the word “clutch” altogether? I get the samples are too small to have statistical significance, but is it colloquially fair to just say a walk-off HR is a clutch hit?
Keith Law: There are clutch hits, but not clutch hitters.

Chris: It turns out that I did indeed have that third pull of intelligentsia Black Cat the other day. So thanks for the confirmation in your video chat. Much appreciated.
Keith Law: Always a good choice. If my stomach could tolerate it I’d drink coffee all day.

Dan: Kind of a vague question, but when you’re cooking – how crazy are you about cleanliness? I see some of the Alton Brown stuff and, sorry, but I just don’t have the wherewithal to have separate poultry-only cutting boards or wear gloves whenever I touch a piece of meat.
Keith Law: I am not at that level either. I do have cutting boards I only use for raw meats, and a wooden cutting board I use for everything else. I stopped wearing gloves to handle raw meat in most cases because it seemed wasteful.

Luis: Not really a question but just a thank you for all the content (especially on board games). We just started out collection of board games and have established board game Thursdays as date night with my wife. Enjoying it very much and all thanks to your recommendations. Thanks!
Keith Law: Great to hear! Much more to come this fall on that front.

Mr. Bonnie Smalls: Hey Klaw, any reports on how Moniak looks in AFL? Do you still see him as a 4th OF/AAAA guy?
Keith Law: Saw him three weeks ago. Still the same.

Chris: Mariano has been my favorite player since 1995, sad I had to cancel him after the gag-inducing sight/sound of him walking into Roosevelt Room w Cheeto to Enter Sandman.
Keith Law: I mean, you can still love what he did on the field, right?

Jon: Paul Depodesta, the fat guy in Moneyball?
Keith Law: No, that was Peter Brand.

Mike: When the Tigers traded Suarez was he considered a “prospect”?
Keith Law: Yes. I don’t think they evaluated him correctly internally.

Todd: Been on anti anxiety meds for 3 years. Starting to get off them now. Any advice?
Keith Law: Do it slowly. Some new research showing that people tapering too quickly have very negative experiences.

Chris: It blows my mind how many so-professed “cooks” that I know acknowledge never using a thermometer like a Thermapen when cooking (particularly grilling meat or fish). Am I making too much of this?
Keith Law: Every serious home cook should have a thermometer and a scale. The thermometer I use most cost about $9. You can get a good digital scale under $20. They’re essential.

Frank: Thoughts on Bochy getting his 2000th win last night? Is there any doubt he is bound for Cooperstown?
Keith Law: He’s definitely getting into the Hall.

Mr. Bonnie Smalls: Love your chats Klaw, If you had to pick between tatis and Lindor for the rest of there careers who is your choice? Personally i’d take Lindor especially w the consideration of home ball park.
Keith Law: Love both. Tatis has more overall upside.

Jeff: There have been talks of the Diamondbacks relocating to Las Vegas or Henderson, Nevada. Do you think MLB will ever put a franchise in the Las Vegas area?
Keith Law: No. I answered this somewhere recently – maybe on Periscope? – but Vegas’ demographics are awful and they will now have two major league franchises there already.

Greg: Is Klentak’s most fireable offense not just failing to sign Keuchel, but showing almost no interest in doing so? Given the dearth of starting pitching, I still don’t understand how they weren’t seriously looking at him in June.
Keith Law: At the time, it seemed like their bigger need was the bullpen, not the rotation. Should they have signed Kimbrel? You should be glad they didn’t. So no, I don’t think Klentak has committed any fireable offenses.

JT: As a Canadian, I can’t say I’m not miffed at Trudeau’s unfortunate brown face, but his principal opponent is a guy who refuses to apologize for being anti LGBTQ today. Trudeau embraced Syrian refugees; his old opponent promised to stop accepting them.

The left eats itself; the right carries on, gaslighting and awful.
Keith Law: That’s a separate issue; there’s no way Canada should vote Conservative given how much that party has embraced the white nationalist and anti-LGBTQ movements.

Dan: Iced coffee? Cold brew? Or iced americano?
Keith Law: None.

Luis: My 7-year-old daughter loves Catan Jr. Im just worried that she is getting too good at the game (hahaha). Is there another boardgame you would recommend to play with a 7 & 5 year olds? My 5 wont commit to Catan Jr. for the whole game but she will at least play 50-60% of the game before she needs to turn her attention to another thing.
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride is great for those ages.

Andres: How in the world does Mike Minor have a higher WAR than Verlander? Minor has allowed more hits, runs, higher ERA, higher WHIP, less SO, more walks, less innings pitched … How is it possible? Defense alone cannot be it, can it??
Keith Law: I posted a link to a great Twitter thread on this from James Smyth.

Robes-4: Who is the next six gm? Keith law?
Keith Law: Hah, thank you, but that’s not happening.

JT: Vote splitting on the left in Canada (3 parties) leads to 37% majorities for the right.

Similar effect to the Stein/Sanders holdouts in ’16.
Keith Law: Yeah. Please don’t do that. The last thing we need is Trump Lite up there.

Bill: Not to be grim, but what musician’s death would impact you in the way that Ric Ocasek’s or Eddie Money’s has for many?
Keith Law: Prince’s did. Cobain in his era, especially since I was 20 and music was more integral to my life at the time. I still love music, of course, but it’s less central now.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week – back to book writing and a haircut appointment today. I plan to send out another issue of my email newsletter tomorrow, and this edition will talk about my new book, due out in April of 2020. Thank you all as always for reading and for your questions!

ESPN+ subscribers can read my Prospect of the Year column for 2019.

Keith Law: A war that must be won in the name of truth. Klawchat.

Lyle: How soon could the M’s run out an outfield of Lewis-Kelenic-Rodriguez? April 2021? Later?
Keith Law: Later, and while Lewis has had a nice debut, he hasn’t performed nearly well enough in the minors to pencil him in as their LF of the future.

addoeh: Have the Dodgers stumbled upon the Garden of Eternal Prospects? They called up a bunch the last few years (Smith, Lux, Buehler, etc) and it looks like there’s still plenty in the pipeline (Downs, Ruiz, etc).
Keith Law: I think they’ve drafted really well, have developed hitters particularly well (and used similar methods with castoffs like Muncy and Taylor), and then took advantage of the Reds this winter.

Sam: When can we expect any information about your second book?
Keith Law: I mentioned in this week’s newsletter that I will have information on it soon.

Moe Mentum: I know you’re a big FSF fan. And I just read O’Hara’s “Appointment in Samarra” based on your recommendation – thanks. Any other authors who might approach (but of course never match) Fitzgerald’s gift for storytelling and prose?
Keith Law: Specific books you might like: The Magnificent Ambersons, The Age of Innocence, The Awakening, and probably anything by Steinbeck.

Jim: North Carolina GOP, really?
Keith Law: Totally unsurprising.

Richard: Keith, in a chat of yours about a year ago, you said that Yoan Moncada is the kind of player who you think could have a lot of yearly fluctuation in terms of offensive production. He had a 97 wRC+ last year and has a 133 wRC+ this year. BABIP is high but quality of contact is elite. Is it reasonable to think that he puts up a bunch of seasons fluctuating between 110-135 wRC+ going forward, or do you think he’ll see significant regression/improvement?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on this year’s performance, at least. If you made that range more like 100-135 wRC+, I’d buy in.

Richard: Does JD Martinez opt out this year and if so, who signs him? Seems like his only serious suitors would be the Rangers, White Sox, and Blue Jays.
Keith Law: I don’t think so, because I don’t think the White Sox or Jays would bid on him at a level that would make opting out the right move.

JR: Pete Alonso is an easy guy to like, both as a player and human being. Donating part of the HR derby proceeds, engaging the fan base in a positive manner (i.e., not disparaging fans for not coming out but encouraging them to do so while coining an updated rallying cry – LFGM), and now defying MLB to an extent with the cleats to honor 9/11. Agreed?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Dr. Bob: Thanks for chatting, Keith. What is going to happen now in the NL Central? Cards win it? 2nd WC to ???
Keith Law: Fangraphs has STL at 76% to win the division; I won’t disagree. I still think the Cubs limp into the second WC spot.

Dave: Do you think Hoerner starts the season for the cubs at 2b and leading off in 2020.
Keith Law: No. He wouldn’t be up if they hadn’t had injuries that forced their hand; nice player but nothing in his 2019 line says he’s ready to be an average regular.

Chris: Keith, I have to ask the obligatory question: What should the Red Sox do now?
Keith Law: What they usually do: Rebuild without ceding major-league wins. They’ve done it before.

Craig: Campusano seems a little slept on. Do you like him?
Keith Law: Disagree that he’s “slept on.” High draft pick, well known within the industry. He’s very good.

Jerod: Thoughts on Trent Grisham so far and how do you see him going forward?
Keith Law: I’m buying. He was very much in that “guy you thought would hit but were wrong about” category for me till this year.

Appa Yip Yip: A lot of times you get people trying to play “gotcha” on you with players you’re not particularly high on based on small samples. I was just wondering how long you yourself need to see sustained big league success (like, 2 WAR season) before you shrug your shoulders and go, huh, guess I was wrong about that guy. Good for him.
Keith Law: I’d really like to see more than a full year for that. I don’t always have that luxury of time, but we’ve seen so many players have fluke years that it’s too easy to say “welp, I was wrong,” only to have the pendulum go right back the other way a year later.

JR: Can you work your bias magic against the various NL teams to ensure we get a five way tie for the second wild card? TIA
Keith Law: Jay Jaffe coined #TeamEntropy and I am a charter member.

Jeff: Time to move Posey to 1B on a full-time basis, trade Belt and ride Vogt for a year and hope Bart is ready in 2021?
Keith Law: If you think Belt has enough trade value, yes.

Craig: You into guitar pedals?
Keith Law: I only have two, a regular distortion pedal and a “full bore metal” one I got on sale because, fuck yeah, metal.

Bryan (Montclair): Do you think that J.D. Davis’ bat is for real, or was that just a ridiculous August?
Keith Law: I’m inclined to the latter.

Eric: North Carolina is the Florida of Ohios.
Keith Law: That works, especially with the whole “several big cities ruled by a gerrymandered GOP legislature” comparison.

David: Do you think the Henry et. al. were unsatisfied with Trader Dave emptying the farm system? Flags fly forever, but man, one year later, and it’s a disaster there.
Keith Law: It’s gotten a lot weaker, but I don’t think it’s a disaster, and some of this stuff (Groome blowing out, Flores passing away) isn’t anyone’s fault.
Keith Law: I think that was a factor. I can’t believe that would be THE factor.

Chris: Do you like Tool? Listen to the new album?
Keith Law: Not a fan, sorry.

Jerod: Last year the Brewers got within one game of the WS with an average run differential. This year they are negative and near the second wild card. Is this just noise or are they doing something different than other teams?
Keith Law: Some luck but also generally great bullpens.

Ben: With Yelich out, who’s your favorite for MVP – or is it still him?
Keith Law: It was never him, FTR. Bellinger has had the edge over him all year.

Luke: This is probably a dumb question, but why does the minor league season end with a month left of major league games?
Keith Law: Aside from this is how we’ve always done it? I think so teams could recall players for September.

Andrew: Thoughts on Blue Jays C prospect Alejandro Kirk? Posted a 153 wRC+ in high A this year.
Keith Law: I’m not sure how long he catches, given his body, but he can hit.

Zac: Do the Tigers have a hitting prospect that you are excited to watch or is it only pitching?
Keith Law: Riley Greene for sure. Paredes can hit, but I’m not sure where he plays and he has no projection at all. Hill can really run and defend but the bat has never progressed.

TK: I feel things like “clubhouse culture” are a bit overstated, but the Pirates must have serious problems in theirs. Three separate incidents (including a fight that has now caused a pitcher to miss the rest of the season) with their bullpen? Something has got to change there, no?
Keith Law: At some point, the manager has to take the fall, if only for failing to prevent such incidents.

Andres: 5 more good-to-great seasons, is Jacob deGrom a future HOFer? Despite the low counting stats.
Keith Law: No, that’s not close to enough. The bar is really high for modern starters and what you’re talking about probably leaves him short of 60 WAR>

Cole: It’s probably too early for this but who do you see as the major players for Gerrit Cole this offseason?
Keith Law: Any contender should be interested, but I assume the Yankees and Angels will both be bidders and could blow anyone else out of the water. They both have the resources and the critical need for him.

Jeb: Thoughts on O’Neil Cruz? Could he be a top 20-25 prospect by mid-season next year?
Keith Law: Way too optimistic.

Dan: How does Mickey Callaway still have a job? Dude constantly seems overwhelmed.
Keith Law: I would guess he’s the manager most likely to be fired by October, followed by Hurdle and perhaps Kapler. (That’s not my opinion on who should be fired.)

Jordan: I know it’s only 42 games in rookie ball, but it feels like Francisco Alvarez really has a chance to be something for the Mets. A 17-year-old catcher with that kind of pop in his bat is fun to see. Think he should start next year in Columbia?
Keith Law: I would probably start him in extended … after seeing the Phillies push Luis Garcia from the GCL to low-A, only to have him flop, I’m a little loath to suggest other 18-year-olds make that leap. Franco was an obvious exception, but I don’t know if Alvarez is ready – and 35 games in the Appy, while better than the GCL, don’t tell us a ton.

Ian: Would you agree that you enjoy being wrong about players? I always laugh when people get mad at you like you’re some kind of prospect magician.
Keith Law: Yes, if I were always right, this job would be boring. I get frustrated or even upset when I’m wrong for specific reasons – e.g., I didn’t listen to the opinion of someone I trusted, I didn’t see a player (at all, or just enough) and thus missed key information. But you can’t do this job unless you embrace being wrong.

Aaron: How many states would you refuse to live in based on politics?
Keith Law: Woof, probably 15-20 right now.

Guest: Matt Olson has been among 1b leaders since 2016 in drs/uzr/uzr150. When he was a prospect even the most optimistic outlets projected him as an average defensive 1b. Where do you think the disconnect between drs/uzr and the scouting community comes from?
Keith Law: I don’t think UZR/DRS do a very good job measuring 1b defense.

danny: I think you mentioned recently having The Nightingale on your list of movies to see. It’s fairly long, quite grim, with multiple rapes and killings along the way. I wouldn’t say it’s a bad movie overall, but really grim.
Keith Law: Yeah, a few readers have suggested it, but given how many other films I’d like to see + the fact that it’s not really new (it came out in 2018 in Australia, I believe), it’s lower priority.

Sean: Is Miguel Vargas a top 100 guy for you next year?
Keith Law: Possibly.

Mike: As a fellow liberal, how do we reconcile support for affirmative action and unions with the fact that Angel Hernandez and Laz Diaz have jobs?
Keith Law: I don’t see the disconnect. You’re conflating a macro issue with individual examples.

Pat D: I know he was an older rookie and not really that good a player, but what do you make of Daniel Palka’s season? Can he replace Kevin Maas in the baseball lexicon?
Keith Law: I think he can be a solid bench player.

Sean: Who has a higher ceiling between Matthew Allan and Manoah?
Keith Law: Allan. But much further from his ceiling than Manoah is.

Stu (UK): Cheers, Keith! My mates and I are big into baseball and have adopted the White Sox (don’t ask) – Will Luis Robert be great, or merely very good?
Keith Law: Either one of those outcomes is possible. It will depend on how he handles ML pitchers who have better stuff and can locate it more – I’ve spoken a few times about his issues with velocity inside.

Mike: Do you attend many music concerts (live)? Or do the ridiculously high prices of most concerts turn you off?
Keith Law: Saw Phish twice in June, tickets for another show in October, couple of others I might hit this fall depending on my own schedule. I can’t imagine going to a big stadium show but seeing a show in one of the many clubs around Philly isn’t very expensive.

Darin: Which would you rather see in person?

Immaculate inning

Unassisted triple play
Keith Law: I don’t even notice the whole “immaculate inning” thing.

Derek: Miguel Yajure another pop up Yankees prospect with starter upside?
Keith Law: Yes.

Johnny: It sounds like the Jays are not going to do much this off-season since they’ve repeatedly said they’ll spend when the team starts winning. What do you think they should do this off-season, and how far away are they, really?
Keith Law: There’s a small issue with that in that they may not start winning (enough) until they spend more money.

Jason: What’re your thoughts on Mike Tauchman? Can he be a reliable starter or 4th OF type?
Keith Law: Someone else asked how I ranked the Yanks’ three reclamation projects this year by confidence they’ll sustain their gains and I feel like Tauchman is third of the three, with Voit first and Urshuela second.

Zach: Mitch Garver has 30hrs in <300 PA. That’s Just Ridiculous.
Keith Law: Nice player, but come on. The Happy Fun Ball has screwed up everyone’s stat lines.

Steve: long term outlook on Austin Riley? He got hurt, but slumped badly both before and after. Should the braves attempt to resign Donaldson?
Keith Law: Not sure I buy Riley ever being a regular. Bat speed has always been questionable and we saw in the majors how that led to unworkable BB and K rates.

Marc: Julio Pablo Martinez looked like he started to turn things around the second half of the season. Any chance this turnaround is for real and he turns into the player the Rangers hoped?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he has the tools to be more than an extra OF. He’s really small. ++ run, maybe there’s a leadoff type (OBP and speed) if he’s strong enough to get to it.

mike sixel: Would you call up Kiriloff at this point? thanks<
Keith Law: Probably not.

Alex: Who should I be listening to if I liked Botanist’s Shape of He to Come? Also — over the next 10 years, what’s the over/under on additional Soroka All-Star appearances? Two?
Keith Law: I’m not sure who to compare to the Botanist … I’m not particularly a fan of black metal in general or that sort of largely non-melodic extreme metal in particular. Insomnium and Alcest both had new recent tracks I liked that had some death-metal vocals but also far more interesting music. If you put the O/U at 2.5 I’d probably take the under.

Pat D: Considering all the time he dedicates to it, would you consider yourself a bona fide celebrity if Trump started picking a fight with you on Twitter?
Keith Law: Not sure if that would be worth the aggravation.

Santos: Overall Kingery looks really good this year. Good defense, versatility, speed, decent power, etc. But his OBP is low. What’s your outlook on his on base skills going forward?
Keith Law: He’s never been a high OBP guy but I think he can hit for average and bring his K rate down over time. I still think he’s a ++ defender at second. Maybe after this year they turn the position over to him.

Sean: What is Ketel Marte’s “real” talent level at this point? Can he be an annual 5+ WAR player for the next few years? If this year is a mirage, what will change?
Keith Law: I think he’s a legitimately good hitter, although the .342 BABIP and the HR rate both feel like functions of the Happy Fun Ball … but if you told me he averaged 4 WAR over the next five years, with maybe 20 HR/year and a .320 BABIP, I’d buy it.

Jerry: Do either of Urquidy or Tucker have a chance to make the ALDS roster? How much of an impact can Toro make or is he just a guy?
Keith Law: Toro’s the least valuable of the three for the playoffs, I think. I’d try to get the other two on the roster.

BigDaddeh: Do you think McCleod has a good job scouting for the Cubs or is this a case of letting a guy do something different?
Keith Law: I assume the latter. Maybe getting him off the road so much. The travel of amateur scouting in particular really wears guys out. I couldn’t do it.

Pat D: Building off the refusal to live in a certain state question, would population size be a factor? Like is North Dakota more preferable to North Carolina because there’s less people to deal with?
Keith Law: North Carolina has both Raleigh and Durham, sizable urban centers with progressive populations, diversity, and the kinds of services I want in my community. I’d take that over an entirely rural red state like ND.

Bruce: Will Smith is off to a great start as a hitter – is his power for real? How does he rate defensively?
Keith Law: Power was there last year too and I wrote on my offseason top 100 that it was legit.

Rob: i know you like Elizabeth Warren. Any other D candidates that you hold in high regard?
Keith Law: Of the likeliest candidates, it’s her or Harris for me. Maybe Booker. I’m way out on Biden or Bernie.

Chewy Rich: Are you high on Jose Devers?
Keith Law: Not really.

Matt M: Best chance to become a 1 or 2 in a big league rotation: Spencer Howard or Luis Patino?
Keith Law: Patino has #1 upside; Howard doesn’t. Howard could pitch in a MLB rotation next year; I don’t think Patino could.

Jesse: Does Rendon make sense for the White Sox or should they be focusing more on wheeler or Hamels ?
Keith Law: Pitching.

Yan: Thoughts on Phillies pitcher Francisco Morales? Do you think he can be developed into a front of the rotation arm to pair with Nola/Howard?
Keith Law: Reliever all the way.

Matt M: When do you see Oneill Cruz debuting with the Pirates, 2020? Is he the SS of the future?
Keith Law: There is a 0% chance he’s a MLB shortstop for me.

Boris: Is the hate against the new ball old man “get off my lawn” nonsense because baseball is different than when i was a kid or are there legit reasons to be mad about it?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s “get off my lawn” nonsense when homers are up 22% from one year to the next. That’s a vastly different game.

Matt the Brewer Fan: Does Trent Grisham have enough arm to be a right fielder, so Yelich can move back to left next year? Is Grisham a .350 OBP guy, long term? Love your stuff …
Keith Law: I’d try Grisham in RF – yes on the OBP, I am really not certain about his arm.

Todd Boss: So, if Rendon walks and Strasburg opts out, the Nats are in serious trouble no? Either that or they commit $60M/annually for both guys on the wrong side of 30. WWKLD?
Keith Law: I think they could survive Strasburg leaving but without Rendon they don’t have a viable second option.

Pat D: Ever watch The Dark Crystal or have any interest in the Netflix show? Gotta admire that they kept it “low tech” and it looks phenomenal.
Keith Law: Loved the movie as a kid. Will watch the show this offseason.

Mike: Which prospect do you think the Reds will regret giving up most? Don’t know what to make of Trammell right now, but Gray seems special.
Keith Law: And Downs. It’s not really been a banner year for them, trading three of their top ten (maybe top five?) prospects, plus losing Greene to TJ.

Scott: If James Kapriellian stays healthy (big IF), is it reasonable to expect him to push for a rotation spot in Oakland next spring? It sounds like his velocity is almost all the way back finally.
Keith Law: I just don’t know if you can count on him to handle a starter’s workload in 2020, if ever. Loved him prior to the injuries but he has 97 professional innings over 4 full seasons plus one summer since he was drafted.

Dr. Bob: Riffing off of you Blue Jays take, both the Astros and Cubs–the two most successful tanking operations–stopped spending money and concentrated on acquiring young talent. Then when the talent was ready, they opened the pocketbooks for FAs. Right? The problem for other tanking teams (hello, Detroit) is that they don’t seem to be very good at building the farm system and getting the young talent.
Keith Law: Right, that works better if you draft in the top 5 a few times, nail many of those picks, and are aggressive at spending a bit before it seems like you’ll need to.

Joe: While it seems like the Orioles’ pitching prospects took a collective step forward this year, is it fair to say that the hitters took a step back? Feels like none of Hays, Diaz, Mountcastle, McKenna improved.
Keith Law: I would agree with all four of those assessments. Adam Hall took a step forward.

Yinka Double Dare: Every time I see Mitch Garver’s name I think of “Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute” from SNL – is it just me?
Keith Law: Well, not any more.

Brodie Van Wagenen: Should I be a believer in Amed Rosario for the long term? Over Giminez?
Keith Law: Yes and yes.

Jason: You are the new Red Sox GM. What are you doing with Mookie Betts?
Keith Law: Throwing large piles of money at him.

Tom C: Was listening to a podcast the other day and the usual “how can Trout be MVP, the Angels could be way under .500 even without him, it’s only cause of WAR, but wow the Yankees wouldn’t be where they are without LeMahieu.” Do people not realize that by their own logic there that NYY would still be in first place without LeMahieu?
Keith Law: No, they don’t, because they are not using logic.

Nicole: Will Gore pitch for the Padres next year?
Keith Law: Yes, probably midyear/later but yes.

Peter Hook: Do GM’s ever take into consideration a player’s popularity among fans when deciding whether to re-sign a free agent? Or is it strictly performace and cost?
Keith Law: Owners probably do, but good GMs should never consider that.

Mike: I know you don’t like the sac bunt, but do you want a hitter going to the right side with a runner on 2nd & no outs or would you want him to just focus on a hit?
Keith Law: Just try to hit the ball hard. Especially with the Happy Fun Ball.

Eric: Just a reminder that someone screamed at you incessantly that Ryan Howard was the preeminent power hitter of his time and his contract extension was a good idea.
Keith Law: And that someone is, last I checked, still employed to scream at people.

Boris: Does Elizabeth Warren’s stance on nuclear power concern you at all?
Keith Law: I disagree with her – nuclear power is pretty safe and doesn’t contribute at all to climate change – but 1) no candidate is going to match all of my views and 2) she’s shown herself to be fairly pro-science and may change her mind.

Joseph: Has Jordyn Adams impressed you this year? Just held his own?
Keith Law: Scouting reports were not favorable. He came into pro ball with less experience than most HS hitters, and the low K rate/total are promising.

Anthony: Do you think Willie Calhoun will hit enough to be an above average regular in the OF?
Keith Law: No, if we’re considering the value he’ll give back on defense.

Dave: You should look into adding chorus and delay pedals into your setup. Both add so much to guitar playing
Keith Law: It’s just me around the house, though. If I were playing with a band or even with friends, sure, but I’m just a hobbyist.

Preston: Assuming Soroka, Fried, Teheran & Folty are locks for starting rotation spots, who is the fifth starter for the Braves next season? Or instead of one guy, mix and match Anderson, Wright & Wilson?
Keith Law: Teheran has one year left on his deal and a 4.29 FIP this year. Folty can’t be counted on as a lock for 30 starts; neither can Soroka. I think they need to think more flexibly about their rotation for 2020 than assuming those four guys are locked in and the guys you mentioned + Touki are fighting for one spot.

Sean: What is the best case for Puk next year? ~20 starts and finishing the year as a power bullpen arm around 130-150 total innings?
Keith Law: Sure. Maybe on the lower end by innings, but it’ll depend on how he holds up.

Buddy: Do you follow the NFL? If so, did you see that OBJ wore a $300,000 watch during a game?
Keith Law: I did see that but I don’t understand why it was a big deal. If anything, shouldn’t he be concerned about breaking it?

Ben: Do you have a favorite one-player game?
Keith Law: I think Coffee Roaster is the best I’ve tried, with Friday a close second and definitely easier to learn.

Mike: I’m a pro-science guy, but I have to admit I’m really not a nuclear power fan. Yes, there are benefits to it, but that downside….I know, it’s very unlikely to happen. But I view nuclear power plants like idiots who ride motorcycles without helmets. Odds are nothing bad will happen, but when it does, oh boy!
Keith Law: We could start by, say, not building nuclear power plants on or near fault lines or on coasts that might be hit by tsunamis. The history of nuclear plant disasters is that of bad decisions, not really problems with nuclear power per se.

Jim P (TN): Do you think the success of BVW will lead to other clubs adopting the Mets model?
Keith Law: (spits out coffee)

Brent: Do you own an electric guitar as well?
Keith Law: Yep, a strat I’ve had for probably 20 years.

Josh: You watch (or watching) The Magicians show? My wife and I enjoyed the books, but the show seems much…lighter?
Keith Law: It’s on my “maybe some day” list. Loved the books.

Sean: Has Happy Fun Ball helped certain hitters more than others?
Keith Law: Of course it has, but I don’t think we really know who it’s helped more/most and won’t until the ball changes back – and it will. I don’t know what the baseball will be like in 2020, but I feel confident it won’t be the same as it was in 2019.

Joey: Hi Keith. As a recent divorcee who’s daughter has really taken to my new sig other, congrats. Moving on is always hard and having a child makes it scarier. But I’m glad you and your daughter nailed the landing.
Keith Law: Thank you. My daughter has really made me proud with how well she’s handled everything and how much maturity she’s shown in a situation where it would be perfectly fair and understandable for her to act like a kid, which she still is.

Sean: For anyone that thinks that the “downside” of nuclear power (catastrophic failure) makes it far worse than the benefits it provides, just retort with airplanes. Modern engineering is so ridiculously rigorous and robust that failures at a nuclear power plant require some sort of human-induced flaw and multiple steps before anything catastrophic happens.
Keith Law: Good points. Also, the downside of fossil fuels is a lot worse than the downside of nuclear power plants, and the former happens merely by using those fuels, whereas the latter only happens when there’s an actual disaster. (Availability bias!)

Joey: Luis Urías deserves at least another yr or 2 right? I get the Padres want to move to contention, but trying to rush development on a 22 yr seems like a sure fire way to sabotage a rebuild
Keith Law: For sure.

Jason: Is this the real Jorge Soler?
Keith Law: I think so, allowing that the Happy Fun Ball may be helping too.

Will: What should the Reds do with Gausman this off season? He’ll likely command $10MM+ in arbitration.
Keith Law: I’d give him that chance. The upside is there, and while the odds keep slipping … if that clicks, you get way more than $10 million in value.

Dr. Bob: If you get any more pedals, then you’ll need a pedal board to mount them on, add a tuner, maybe a volume pedal, then a better amp, and soon you’ll be haunting Craigslist looking for a deal on a Les Paul. It grows.
Keith Law: Yeah I love the hobby but I’m not looking for ways to spend more money or even acquire more stuff.

Matt M: Does Alek Thomas make it to big leagues sometime in 2020? Is he the future Dbax table setting lead off hitter?
Keith Law: He’s 19 and played just 23 games above low-A. That does not put any player on a timetable to see the majors a year later.

Jordan: Shane Baz started off early in the year with good BB/9 but it progressively got worse as the year went on. Control/command has always been the question about him. And while his BB/9 was manageable, I saw a lot of publications instantly move him up into their top 100. But I don’t think he is there yet.
Keith Law: Whether he’s on a top 100 – he was on mine – is not a function of his BB/9 (use BB% instead, by the way), but of his stuff, delivery, and projection.

Oscar: To play devils advocate on the nuclear power discussion, you say “the history of nuclear plant disasters is that of bad decisions.” But bad decisions ARE going to happen, inevitably, so don’t we want the results of those bad decisions to, I dunno, not kill us all?
Keith Law: The results of fossil fuel usage will kill us all.

Brodie Van Wagenen: Do I resign Wheeler? At what price? Seems like he’ll get $15-$20m or likely more a year for multiple years from someone, but I don’t think I can replace what he’s done— and in NY…
Keith Law: Make the QO, maybe offer 2-3 years, but my guess is someone outbids the Wilpons.

Raul: Manuel Margot since July 1
Keith Law: .254/.347/.486. Not quite the player I envisioned: I would have guessed more AVG/OBP and less power. He doesn’t strike out much at all, which is one reason I haven’t given up on him.

Guest: At some point does MLB have to realize that broadcasting playoffs games on FS1–with its relatively limited availability (especially in hotels)–is detrimental to expanding the game’s profile?
Keith Law: Well, that would mean MLB taking less money in the short term to grow the game in the long term, and the entire history of the league dating back to the 19th century says they won’t do that.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions. I should be back as usual for a chat next Thursday and a Periscope either Tuesday or Wednesday. Book details soon … just not quite yet. Thanks again!

ESPN+ subscribers can see my column on prospects who’ve gotten the call this September.

Keith Law: I’m being held up by invisible men. Klawchat.

JR: If Alonso was having this type of season 20 years ago (or even 10) would he be a lock for NL MVP (or at least top 3 candidate) solely based on the fact he leads MLB in HRs (assume for purposes of my question he does end up as league leader)
Keith Law: Probably, given how voters thought 20 years ago. I’m not sorry that this has changed.

Joey: Is Wil Myers toast?
Keith Law: Seems dramatic … but he’s been so bad for just about two full years now I don’t see any reason to forecast an improvement.

Guest: Klaw, Thanks for the chats. Appreciate your time and insights. any thoughts on Brailyn Marquez?
Keith Law: Saw him pitch on Sunday (as those of you who follow my mostly non-baseball Instagram account @mrkeithlaw know) and he was 96-100 for six innings with a plus slider and below-average changeup. It’s not a great delivery for a starter, and every scout I’ve asked about him has said they wrote him up as a high-leverage reliever. I think I’d feel better saying he could end up a Hader/Aroldis type out of the pen than saying he could be a mid-rotation stater.

addoeh: Why is the President more concerned about a state Dorian won’t come within a couple hundred miles of than states and territories and it has/will hit?
Keith Law: Might have to do with the electoral map.

Joe: Would you give Hunter Harvey another chance to start or just keep him in the pen?
Keith Law: I can’t see him starting after all those injuries and the extreme cross-body delivery he adopted back in low minors.

Bill G: Hi Keith. Thanks as always for doing these chats. I fail to see the logic of the opener, especially when they are followed by a bulk pitcher. Why use a good reliever in the first inning, followed by a bulk guy. It seems more logical to use the good reliever late in the game when there are fewer innings to recover from giving up a run. Please help me understand. Thanks!
Keith Law: The logic is that the first inning is the one inning where you’re guaranteed to face your opponent’s best hitters (1-2-3). You seldom get such an opportunity to line up your most effective one-inning arm against the best hitters in the other team’s lineup.

BigDaddeh: Is the prospect dream over for Florial?
Keith Law: No. I’ve never ranked him that highly because his pitch recognition is so bad, but you can also point to his youth and the fact that he’s had two significant injuries (hamate and wrist) in the last two years that probably hurt his performance as well.

Ben: What has Lux done differently to his game this season? It can’t be just the ball.
Keith Law: Just physical development, as far as I can tell.

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Hey KLaw.

Benyamin Bailey is putting up an interesting .324/.477/.454 slash line in rookie ball as a 17 year old, with a 21% walk rate (with a 16% K rate). I’m having a hard time finding much info on him. What can you tell me about him? Is he a legit prospect? Thank You.
Keith Law: He’s not in rookie ball – he’s in the DSL, which is a step below that. I don’t pay any attention to stats there because the level of competition is so uneven.

mike sixel: Berrios seems to be fading again this year. A: Is he, or is it random? B: what, if anything, can be done about it (this year or next)? thanks.
Keith Law: I didn’t realize how pronounced his career splits were by time of year – he’s clearly less effective in August and September, at least. Better question for the Twins people, obviously, who might have a better handle on any biomechanical indicators, but I would at least ask if using him less early in the season would help him hold his performance later.

Ben: Your thoughts on the AFL beginning almost a full month earlier than usual?
Keith Law: I understand why they did it: teams didn’t like shutting pitching prospects down for almost a month and then having them ramp back up to pitch in the AFL. That’s a good reason. But it sucks for just about every other stakeholder, including scouts – and most teams seem to value the scouting reports they get from that environment.

barbeach: Thanks as always for doing these chats. This week was another reminder that Brodie’s bullpen construction borders on malpractice. Is there anyone in that group with a real future?
Keith Law: First, I don’t think Diaz is toast; I’d bet on some regression to the mean next year, and I wonder if the altered baseball is helping make his slider so ineffective. Lugo’s been good and I think he’ll continue to be so. I think guys like Gsellman and Sewald are capable back-end relievers. It’s not a good group on the whole, but the Mets aren’t starting from scratch in 2020 either.

James: Last week the Royals bunted for a single, sac bunted which resulted in an error, then sac bunted again which also resulted in an error. The announcers talked about the great strategy. Then an assistant to the GM said that one of the stats that he thinks is UNDERAPPRECIATED is the RBI because not everyone can drive a guy in from second base with two outs.
Keith Law: Well, this might explain why they’re 13th in runs scored.
Keith Law: By the way, did I see a rumor that their new owner wants to extend Moore’s contract? Is that even possible?

BigDaddeh: The Rangers have been playing Solak at 3rd base. Even good shifting can’t hide the glove, right?
Keith Law: I’d agree with you on that.

J.P.: Do you concur with the decision not to call up Robert?
Keith Law: I understand it. The flip side is that he’s getting away with stuff in AAA that major-league pitchers will exploit, and for him to keep developing he has to come to the majors.

PA Prospects: Any chance Spencer Howard can legitimately help the Phillies over the final 3 weeks, or not worth the risk of health or mental issues if not ready?
Keith Law: Not a bad idea at all. I wonder if they’ll call him up when Reading is done, and thus have him skip the AFL.

Mark: Anthony Rendon is really turning on the Jets towards the end of the season.Does he enter into the MVP discussion in the N.L ?
Keith Law: His stats are virtually indistinguishable from Bellinger’s and he’s not far behind Yelich. He should already have been in the MVP discussion, if we’re discussing serious, worthy candidates. I don’t know if voters have already made up their minds though.

Sedona: Will Canario be in consideration for Top 100 next year?
Keith Law: I don’t know for sure but right now would say probably not.

James: Did you play Tapestry and do a write up of it?
Keith Law: The game isn’t out yet. My review copy should be here in a few weeks, and I will review it. That’s a priority game for me even though my review queue is at least a dozen titles long (just for Paste etc., not counting games I’ll review on the dish).

Tim: Is there a plan with Vlad Guitierez usage next year? He was dominant last month as a starter. 10-15 starts for the Reds next year?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a starter long-term.

Chris: So…Good Eats: The Return. Must-see TV for you?
Keith Law: Yes.

Matthew: What do you make of James Karinchak? Clearly he’s not a viable major league pitcher with his current walk rate, but the K rate is so absurd, is there possibly anything to dream on?
Keith Law: Just a novelty until he stops walking guys. Relievers sometimes turn that corner without warning – look at Kimbrel’s walk rates in the minors – but I have never thought we know which guys will do so.

Dana: I know the BABIP is unsustainable, but Bryan Reynolds has been incredible and he hit everywhere he’s been. Why was he never a top prospect?
Keith Law: He didn’t hit everywhere he’s been. He only slugged about .450 between high-A and double-A and was a touch old for both levels. Bear in mind I ranked him as a first-rounder out of college, so I thought those years were disappointing, but I also couldn’t rank him highly when he showed so little power for a corner OF.

Johnny Asel: What is wrong with Trevor Bauer this year?
Keith Law: Last year was the outlier.

JG: Should the Twins have concern about Buxton’s health going forward? Royce Lewis did play CF earlier this week…
Keith Law: Lewis can’t play SS. He has to move somewhere and CF makes the best use of his skills. I think that’s independent of Buxton’s injury history, but if BB doesn’t show he can stay healthy Lewis could usurp him.

Nick P: Have you read Fearless by Eric Blehm? Phenomenal read!
Keith Law: No, not really my genre.

Andy: Should the Tigers DFA Cabrera in the offseason? I’m not sure his spot on the major league roster is actually hurting the team long term?
Keith Law: I see 0% chance of that happening.

Nick P: Who is more valuable, Mike Soroka or Acuna Jr?
Keith Law: Acuna Jr. Not close.

Aaron G: Are the Astros the only (postseason) team with more than two starters that could reasonably get 3+ times through the order with any degree of confidence? I guess the Nats also fit that description, but that seems about it.
Keith Law: At a glance, those two are it.

mike: your weekly Biggio question, Defence is below average, good eye – seems to have average power but he’s nothing for a Jays fan to be excited about. Maybe a utility type bench guy right
Keith Law: Not even since he has no position. I enjoyed one Jays fan trying to troll me when Biggio had one good game, though. Stay dim.

Jubilant Earl: Last year, around this time, I asked if Christian McCafferey was going to be a top 5 RB in PPR. You’re response was terse; “what sport is that?” I need to know this year: will Aaron Jones be a top 5 RB in PPR?
Keith Law: Not close. Saquon, Elliott, the aforementioned McCaffrey, Kamara, David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Gurley, Josh Jacobs … is Jones even top ten?

Hank: Has the Fernando Rodney trade lottery ticket Dakota Chalmers piqued your interest at all to follow in the AFL?
Keith Law: It’ll be interesting to see him but his delivery was pretty rough before the TJ. Maybe a two-pitch reliever?

Nick: Andrew Vaughn’s had a decent pro debut the numbers don’t jump off the page the way I would have expected them to so far. Maybe there’s some fatigue after a long season. What do you make of his first taste of pro ball? For a player whose value is almost entirely tied up in his bat, I would have liked to see a little more this summer.
Keith Law: He’s been playing since Valentine’s Day. I’m sure he and Adley are exhausted.

Rick: Hi Keith, Do any teams use RBI’s to judge players anymore. I sure hope not. Yet you will hear GM’s mention a players RBI’s many times Is the GM usually doing that because that is what the fans want to hear?
Keith Law: Probably yes, and because it’s easy (or lazy) to do so. But I don’t think any GMs still actively use RBI.

Hank: If Twins make a move for a frontline pitcher in the offseason, who would you rather hold on to: Kiriloff or Larnach?
Keith Law: Keep Kirilloff. I think he’s a superstar. Shame he was also pulled from the AFL.

Mr. Bergstrom: Hi Keith: would it make sense for MLB to return to a 154 game schedule in order to introduce another round of playoffs? Is there any reason to not do it?
Keith Law: Yes. One reason is that it takes 8 games (4 home games) away from ~18 of the teams. The other reason is that I fucking hate it.

Buscon Bob: Carlos Colemaneres, Venezualen SS, Top 2020 IFA?
Keith Law: No clue. Better question for Jesse Sanchez or my friends at Fangraphs.

Jon: Thank you for the chats Klaw. Thoughts on Joey Cantillo’s future? I know the velo isn’t there but it seems deceptive. Thanks
Keith Law: Correct, deception over stuff. Has value, hard to project starter.

Jared: Do you think James Karinchak will be closing for Cleveland by early 2020?
Keith Law: No. See above.

Mitch: What’s Patrick Sandoval’s ceiling? Mid rotation starter?
Keith Law: More back end.

Eric: fun stat:

In 2007, a 42-year-old Barry Bonds had a 1.045 OPS, and couldn’t find a job the next year because of reasons.

In the 12 years since, only 12 players have eclipsed that mark.
Keith Law: NO COLLUSION!

JG: Would you consider this a “bounce-back” year for Nick Gordon? Any improvement in his stock?
Keith Law: No. League-average OBP and below-average SLG while repeating the league.

Connor: Is Framber Valdez going to be anything more than a back end starter? That command just seems poor
Keith Law: Below-average for a starter, likely a reliever.

Jordan: I find it absolutely ridiculous that some Mets fans don’t care about losing Kelenic because he’s “just a prospect” and then they allude to guys like Fernando Martinez and Lastings Milledge. Do they not understand that the deal was bad no matter how Kelenic turns out because Van Wagenen completely undervalued him in a trade for a reliever, the most volatile position in the sport? Diaz posting a 5+ ERA this year is just the cherry on top of an already terrible deal.
Keith Law: Exactly. And he also undervalued Dunn. And overvalued the guys he got. It reeked of a GM in over his head, trying to make a big splash in his first week on the job, and DiPoto saw an easy mark.

Mike: Do you see a guy like Brujan looking like a candidate to substantially boost his hitting profile once he moves up to AAA/MLB playing with the juiced ball?
Keith Law: No. I don’t really think the premise works – everyone hits better with this juiced ball.

Max: So, Jack Flaherty looks like an ace in his last 10 or so starts. Could he become that? Or more of a #2?
Keith Law: I think I’d previously said #2 for him and would stick with that, but I’m not arguing. He’s good. Harvard-Westlake should produce more pitchers.

Max: Does Miguel Vargas have the potential to be the next great Dodgers position prospect?
Keith Law: He is a good prospect. The hyperbolic questions don’t really help, though.

Matthew: Tarik Skubal seems like a pop-up guy to a degree. His Double-A stats are pretty fancy though. Might he have a mid-rotation ceiling?
Keith Law: Answered last week. Real prospect, not a pop-up guy.

JR: Who’s the favorite right now for NY Cy Young?
Keith Law: DeGrom. Scherzer leads him in fWAR but DeGrom’s innings lead and counting stats will probably carry the day.

Eric: hey keith, can i go ahead and borrow some guns? a us representative said it’s cool to do that willy nilly.
Keith Law: Yep. Also drive my car. Doesn’t matter if you have a license.

Pete: Will Smith LAD is good but he’s playing over his head right now right? Is the ceiling a .350 OBP/30 hr bat?
Keith Law: More OBP. Maybe 25 HR but that’s quibbling.

Buscon Bob: Are you surprised more about Austin Meadows nearing 30 HRs or Travis d’Arnaud reaching 20?
Keith Law: Literally nothing surprises me with HR totals.

addoeh: The Cubs seem to have such an patchy record with developing their position players in the majors. Baez and Contreras have improved over time, but Almora, Schwarber, Russell, Bote, and Happ have either stayed the same or regressed. Are these outcomes about what one would expect or is it a concern?
Keith Law: Throw Russell out, not literally but … okay, well maybe literally. The others are all kind of surprising to me especially Almora. Thought he’d at least hit for empty average.

Matt: Give me some optimism here Keith, spencer Howard, how high is his ceiling? Did the Phillies finally find a gem in the draft with him?
Keith Law: See my post on him from last week.

ARod: You definitely would rather have a 2-run lead than a 13-run lead because even leads are gold.
Keith Law: He said that two straight weeks. It’s like he heard “sabermetrics” and googled “numerology.”

HH: If you had the choice between expanded rosters in September (as now) or expanded rosters in April, what would you prefer? I kinda think the latter would be more fun, and less disruptive to playoff races.
Keith Law: Yep and I think it would allow for slightly shorter spring training too, which I believe most players would favor.

Joey Joe Joe: Are you still in on Jakson Reetz? Seems to have put it together this year.
Keith Law: 23 repeating high-A. Wasn’t good when I saw him in the first half. Really need to see him do it at a higher level to buy in.

Stephen: I had submitted my question too late on Friday, so i will try it here: How would you rate the drafting decisions of Damon Oppenheimer over the last 4 or so years? in 2015 he drafted James Kaprielian & Kyle Holder while skipping over players like “Walker Buehler” “Austin Riley” not qbing from a distant, I just wonder if a team that will always be drafting low it is imperative that they hit on those picks. DO seems to miss more often. 2016 Blake Rutherford over so many others with more upside
Keith Law: Buehler needed TJ at the time and that may be why they passed – and why they took the same risk on Clarke Schmidt two years later. They’ve also found a lot of value lower in the draft.

Kevin: What is the bail amount set on Solar for murdering that baseball last night ?
Keith Law: That was a monster shot with any baseball. I go back and forth on how much of his breakout to buy, given how power-centric it is.

Ben: If you had only two nights in Chicago where would you eat for dinner those two nights?
Keith Law: Monteverde and Purple Pig.

romorr: DL Hall had a good season in A+ ball. The walks are a worry to me, but all I see is the stat line. Do you think it is a worry, or something fixable? Keeping him in A+ to work it out seems the smart play for 2020, right?
Keith Law: Great athlete with good delivery. I don’t see any reason he couldn’t improve.

Dylan: You say Brailyn Marquez has a below average changeup and is likely a reliever. But if I take this sharpie and add a few lines to his scouting report, he becomes a future #1 starter.
Keith Law: Yes, Mr. President. The truth is whatever you want it to be.

Keith: What is your POV on how teams should be handling high school pitchers in their first year after the draft? What were the varying approaches that different orgs took, and what are the pros and cons of each?
Keith Law: Other than being conservative with in-game pitch counts, which we know is a good idea, I think teams are mostly just guessing at how to keep them healthy.

romorr: Santander has been a bright spot for the Orioles this year, it’s not a seasons worth of ABs, but the results are there. Think he can be a viable starter in RF for 150+ games a year? I remember he wasn’t a nothing prospect, just lots of injuries.
Keith Law: Yeah I’m buying that one. Average regular.

Jerry: Thoughts on the Astros/Verlander flap with the Detroit reporter. I found it disappointing that the Astros and Verlander were that petty. One of the Astros former beat writers said on Twitter that this wasn’t the first time they’ve done something like that.
Keith Law: Astros were completely in the wrong, as was Verlander. Unequivocally so. If there’s an issue with the writer, it has to be handled at another time. The team is obligated to respect his credential.

jack: Can Alec Bohm be a competent 3rd baseman for a few years? Until the NL implements the dh
Keith Law: If “competent” means average, no. If it means a 45, yes.

JR: when you do the podcast with Buster, do you know what questions he will be asking you in advance so you can prepare? Or just shooting from the hip?
Keith Law: He tells me a few things before we start recording but that’s it. I think I do better when it’s extempore anyway.

John O’Reily: What is Roasny Contreras best case scenario
Keith Law: Tightens the CB and becomes a #3 starter.

Robert: Luis Basabe has had a better second half. Could some of his issues in the first half be related to the broken hamate? Is he a candidate for a bounceback in 2020?
Keith Law: I believe all of this is true.

Dice Throne: Have you played any of the games in the Dice Throne series? Hearing good things and wondering what you think
Keith Law: I have not, sorry.

Chad: Does Seager or Lux profile better as a shortstop going forward?
Keith Law: Lux, for me.

SK: So we’re now two years into Max Kepler hitting lefties as well as he hits righties. Considering how bad he was against lefties earlier in his career, is this sustainable?
Keith Law: I’m in. Now MLB needs to get his face on billboards all across Europe.

Buscon Bob: With the FSL playoffs cancelled, should Wander Franco be given a taste of AA?
Keith Law: Why not? I see no downside.

Ira: Aren’t the Yankees best served letting Didi walk and moving Torres to shortstop and using that money on a front line starter? I assume Didi will want long term deal.
Keith Law: I would.

Dan: Are there any literary classics like 1984, To Kill a Mockingbird, Catch 22, etc. that you make a point to read every so often just to make sure they’re always fresh in your mind?
Keith Law: No, just because there are too many other books I want to read.

Sarah: This was reported in late June – given the year he’s had, do you think it explains Bauer’s struggles? “On multiple occasions this year, Bauer has mentioned after starts that he’s been battling something physically. It hasn’t allowed him the mobility he needs during his deliver to really rear back and get the bite and spin on his pitches that he wants. He said on Wednesday that he felt better, but, he still hasn’t felt entirely comfortable on the mound. He hasn’t given any details on what he’s dealing with, but, something is there.”
Keith Law: Of course, yes, it’s the reed.

Andy: I must have missed all the articles about how attendance plummeted for the White Sox, Nationals, and Dodgers. I was told (by others) that was the only possible outcome of extending the netting.
Keith Law: Yes, please send me those links.

Dallas: Do you have a preference between DRS and UZR? They can be so different for example Bogaerts is -20 DRS but 1.8 UZR; Rosario is similar -14 DRS -1.8 UZR?
Keith Law: I look at both, but prefer UZR slightly.

Henry: Your cat was outstanding on Baseball Tonight a a couple of weeks ago. Can’t wait for your new book.
Keith Law: He made a real racket this morning and I have no idea why. Thanks.

Guest: Small sample size for Aristides Aquino? Legit or somewhere in the middle?
Keith Law: Somewhere in the middle.

Scherzer’s Third Eye Color: With the likely Cole departure, and A’s getting Manaea,Puk, Luzardo and Montas back in the rotation. And a full season of Murphy at catcher, can A’s challenge Houston for the division in 2020?
Keith Law: I don’t necessarily buy that rotation. All four have had injury issues this year. Three have had multiple injuries in their careers. Montas never projected as a starter for me. How many total starts do you think the A’s get from that quartet next year? 75?

Anchen: Phillies fans seem to mostly hate Gabe Kapler at least as their manager. Do you have any views on him either on field decision making or off field? Example, he has for the most part not benched players who didn’t hustle. What do you think of the general cost/benefit of benching a player for something like that?
Keith Law: I don’t quite get the vitriol directed at him – my gut says that a lot of it is “he’s different, so we don’t like him.” He’s made good moves and bad moves, been good for some players and maybe not good for others, but I think he’s been a net positive, and I don’t blame him for the utter implosion of their opening day bullpen.

JM: If Rendon walks, can Kieboom play 140 effective games at 2nd or 3rd in 2020?
Keith Law: It’s an enormous drop in production. I think he needs to play 2b over 3b.

Jason: Can you name the one prospect whose stock has increased the most this season, and one whose stock has dropped the most?
Keith Law: Not right now. Maybe in December or January when I’ve taken a thorough look at everyone.

Dallas: Sheldon Neuse’s BP defensive rate stat FRAA is very good at 3B while in Triple-A; could he start at 3B for other teams giving Oakland a nice trade piece?
Keith Law: I don’t use that stat. Having seen him in the low minors, I think he could be average at third, probably the same at second.

Vincent Adultman: Have you traveled to Japan and how long of a stay would you recommend for a first time visiter?
Keith Law: Never been. Would love to go, for work or tourism.

romorr: Orioles have been bad, no denying. But this is a good bad right, giving guys playing time to see if anything sticks. Maybe find some value to build, or trade.
Keith Law: Yes. Elias et al inherited a very weak foundation.

Mike: Thoughts on Braxton Garrett this year? Any chance he’s going to crack the top 100?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he on my midseason top 50? He was a top 50 prospect before the injury – chance for plus command with an average fastball and plus breaking ball. Stuff is definitely back.

Ryan: Pavin Smith has had a very good season, and he really turned it up in the last couple of months. Have you heard about anything he may have done to improve in the second half? Thank you!
Keith Law: He’s had an okay season, for a first baseman. Still nowhere near enough power.

Matthew: Since acquiring Carson Kelly, has the door closed on Daulton Varsho as a catcher? Might he be a part-time backup?
Keith Law: Other teams doubted Varsho would stay at C before the trade, between his own defensive issues and the desire to get a bat/athlete like him to another position. So I think he moves permanently in the next 12 months.

A. person: First trip to NY in a few weeks. Staying in Manhattan. What should we eat?
Keith Law: I mean, it would depend entirely on what you like to eat. NYC has just about everything. You could go full New York and focus on pizza and bagels and Jewish and Italian-American food … but you could also take advantage of the cornucopia of cuisines available in the city’s innumerable ethnic communities.

Chris: Logan Gilbert seems to have answered most of the doubts some had about him at draft time. Is a #2 starter too lofty of a projection?
Keith Law: It’s within reach.

Brett: Do you ever wear hats? You strike me as someone who doesn’t wear hats.
Keith Law: If I’m at a game I almost always have a hat on.

Adam: Thoughts on the season Gabriel Arias is having?
Keith Law: So young for high-A … glad to see the good contact, but the low walk rate/moderately high K rate aren’t great. I hold to the fact that he’s just 19 in high-A, though.

Bill: Hey Keith. What was the most recent election in which you voted for a Republican?
Keith Law: 2004, I think?
Keith Law: Actually I may have voted for one or two downballot in 2008, when I lived in Massachusetts and there often weren’t two candidates listed for certain offices.

Jeremy B: Keith, no real question, just a thank you for suggesting Juniper & Ivy in past chats. Was in SD two weeks ago. Not sure I’ve ever had a meal that good. Thanks again
Keith Law: I haven’t been in 2+ years but am going in December come hell or high water. It’s one of the best restaurants in the country.

Jason: How easy is it to teach a group of people to play Everdell and to understand the game quickly?
Keith Law: I think it’s easy to start. The game is structured in a way that the beginning round is simple, and the complexity increases as you go along, so you’re not just thrown to the wolves in round one.

Sam W : RE- Cy young. With the way he’s pitched the last two months and the cardinals ascent to the top of the division seemingly in conjunction, do you think that Jack Flaherty should be in the conversation with seemingly no clear front runner at the moment.
Keith Law: Absolutely not. This is a full-season award, not a last-two-months award.

Eric: while it’s more fun to make drawing on a hurricane map the news cycle for four stupid days, let’s not forget that there are children being locked up on our border and families being cruley separated every day. this should never be out of the news cycle as long as it is happening.
Keith Law: And efforts to legislate trans people out of existence. And rollbacks of environmental regulations that threaten our water supply, air quality, and global climate. And persistent attacks on women’s rights. And now the gutting of funds for our armed forces. And just wait until the next epidemic hits and we’re underfunded or just unwilling to send help.

Guest: Is Derek Hill’s glove still good enough to make him an everyday starter in Detroit?
Keith Law: He’s at least a half-grade of bat from that. The glove/speed make him a bench piece.

Aaron: What kind of upside do you think Simeon Woods has? Top of the rotation potential?
Keith Law: Hah, no, not close. Wrote him up here.

Chris (Raleigh, NC): Hi Keith — No question, just wanted to say thanks for all the great columns, chats, etc. I look forward to reading them every week. When you write your next book maybe you could consider a book signing in the Raleigh/Cary area. It would give you an excuse to partake in some of the food options here…
Keith Law: It’s on my personal short list of places where I didn’t do signings last time but would love to hit this time.

Mike: Re: Garrett – would you believe I looked at the 2019 and 2018 lists, but not the midseason? Apologies Keith – love the chats!
Keith Law: Thanks, I was unsure if I’d included him when you asked.

Mike: Favorite Minneapolis restaurant?
Keith Law: Revival.

Paul: I appreciate you keeping us up to date on your varied interests. What do you do to stay active? Are you into Tennis, Golf or anything like that?
Keith Law: I bike around the neighborhood in the spring and fall, usually with my daughter, and go to the gym in the winter. Never cared for golf. Would play tennis but am terrible at it.

Mark: So you went to Jamaica and stayed on the resort with a bunch of white people?
Keith Law: Good try, but no, the guests were mixed, whether by race or national origin. The only thing we all had in common was that we were all adults.

Kendra: You need to try Cloak and Petal and King and Queen Cantina in SD. Both just up the street from J&I. Also Craft and Commerce for drinks. And there’s a Salt and Straw there too. Really a great food city.
Keith Law: Excellent. I think I tried C&C once a few years ago. Thank you.

Jason: I’m very enthused by the start both Will Smith and Gavin Lux have gotten off to, but would you have traded one or both for a lockdown Closer like Vazquez knowing that it’s awfully tough to get to the World Series 2 yrs in a row, let alone 3x
Keith Law: No.

GOTCHA: why do people come to your chat to try to get you, like dumb mark?
Keith Law: It’s one dumb guy, pretty much every week. He doesn’t learn.

Brett: Are you an Apple Watch guy?
Keith Law: I’m not. I need fewer devices, not more.

Nick: When you say that a pitcher could be a 3 is that like Tanaka? Eduardo Rodriguez? The rotation is so different for each team a comp would be helpful.
Keith Law: I have two definitions I try to use for that. One is that there are roughly 15 aces (#1 starters) in any given year, 30 #2s, 30 #3s, etc. The other is that a #3 starter should be league-average, and you work outward from there. Both are a bit wibbly-wobbly timey-wimey but you get the gist.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions. I’m hoping to resume semi-regular periscopes now that the season is winding down, and my email newsletter should become more regular too. I should be back for another chat next Thursday as well. Thanks again!

Keith Law: I guess I didn’t know. Klawchat.

Otto Adamvino: With Deivi Garcia, Schmidt, Gil & Medina all looking good lately, has the Yanks’ minor-league pitching taken a step forward overall this season? Do you project any/all of those four to be good MLB starters?
Keith Law: Garcia is the highest probability starter of the group for me. I’d project Schmidt to start, with some caveats about his durability. Medina probably has the highest ceiling, based on pure stuff and delivery, but the shortest track record of adequate performance (he’s been great recently, a complete turnaround from everything that came before). You didn’t mention Roansy Contreras, who I also think is a definite starter, or Luis Gil, more likely a reliever than the others in the group but nonzero starter potential. So yeah, pretty solid crop.

Bruce: Will Bo Bichette stay at SS? Does he have an All Star hit tool?
Keith Law: I would bet on him moving off shortstop, but I think he has at least a 60 hit tool.

Will: How close are Matt Olson and Ramon Laureano to their ceilings?
Keith Law: I would say they’re both at or right near their ceilings. Laureano has even exceeded my expectations for him when I saw him and wrote him up positively after the AFL in 2016, before the Astros tried to change his swing.

Tony: Man, Rhys Hoskins looks terrible. I know he’s not as good as he looked when he first came up, and probably isn’t this bad, but it really is starting to seem like he’s more Pat Burrell than Paul Goldschmidt at this point
Keith Law: A 120 wRC+ isn’t terrible; I think you’re reacting to how he gets to that figure (power and walks, lot of Ks, low average) rather than considering the total production. I’d say I’m more concerned about his defense than anything else.

VernRudyVanceDerekKeith LAW: The Pirates seem to have several rookies & young vets having pretty strong offensive years. I know they have no pitching, especially given Taillon’s injury, but is there enough of an offensive core there to build a contender?
Keith Law: Yes. But they need a lot of pitching to get there and right now I don’t see it in the system.

Danny: So I’m torn. I want Trump gone because he’s the most divisive and destructive American politician we may have ever seen. Recessions are terrible, although inevitable in economic cycles. Am I wrong to want this recession within the next year or so if it means helping get him voted out?
Keith Law: I had this same conversation with someone the other day … you can’t root for a recession, not if you have any sort of conscience, but the realistic view is that 1) recessions are inevitable, as you said, and 2) they often bounce a lot of incumbents, especially the President.

Paul: Hey Keith – my wife and I are trying to plan a trip in early December. Somewhere tropical, looking for something adults only, nice beache etc. I know you have been to a few any place that you have been that you would recommend?
Keith Law: My girlfriend and I just stayed at Sunset at the Palms in Negril, Jamaica, this month, and we thought it was fantastic – adults only, all inclusive, never had any need to leave the resort, incredibly friendly and helpful staff. The food was better than we’d expected too. We did see the largest stingray either of us could ever remember seeing, right on the beach, maybe three feet from the water line, so … swim carefully.

Tony Gonsolin: I have a legitimate 4 pitch mix with + grades and pitched well against NYY, ATL, STL and @ COL. What is my realistic ceiling?
Keith Law: Slow down. You do not have four pitches with plus grades.

Sedona: Will Joe Palumbo and Justin Dunn be in their respective rotations in 2020? What are their ceilings?
Keith Law: That feels like a strong maybe in both cases (better than even odds, far from definite). Dunn potential #3 starter, Palumbo maybe a tick below that. I believe both guys can start.

Tevin: It got very little publicity at the time, but is the Randal Grichuk extension by the Jays the most confusing deal of the year? They gave him $50+ million for 5 years despite having him under control through 2020. He’s already 27, he’s a 1-2 win player (this year he’s even less) at a non-premium position.
Keith Law: I have always been befuddled with industry evaluations of Grichuk as more than an extra outfielder, which date back to when he was in the low minors. His strengths and weaknesses are pretty clear and I don’t think they’ve changed at all since he was a prospect, have they? That’s not a core player you try to lock up. You keep that guy, and pay him fairly, but save your long-term investments for guys like Bichette.

Sedona: Why can’t lefties hit lefties while righties can hit righties?
Keith Law: Right-handed batters have platoon splits; they’re just not as severe. I think the main reason is that there are so many fewer left-handed pitchers, so left-handed batters don’t get the same quantity of reps against same-side arms as RHB do. There could also be some selection bias at work, with teams particularly favoring LHP who have the breaking ball(s) to get lefties out.

Mark: Were you surprised Blake Swihart passed through waivers ? Kind of feel bad for the guy, the ankle injury ,parasites,his brother passing away. Is his career likely over ?
Keith Law: Surprised, a little. Career over, not at all.

Hank: Bryan Reynolds. How much of this is mirage, how much of it is sustainable?
Keith Law: The .410 BABIP is obviously unsustainable, by a large margin. His secondary skills are enough to make him a regular even when that bubble bursts.

Jason: On Monday, Atlanta had Billy Hamilton on third with 1 out, down by 1. The hitter (not very good) walked, bringing up the pitcher’s spot, and the two options were Tyler Flowers and Hechevarria. Although Hechevarria hit a sac fly to score the tying run, was that a rare situation where an out in play would probably have been preferable to a walk?
Keith Law: I may have missed something in your question, but I don’t see why that’s preferable; the walk loads the bases for whoever was on deck, who was not the pitcher.

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Hey KLaw. You wake up tomorrow as Rick Hahn. Do you view your team as ready to compete for the playoffs next year? If so, what moves do you make? Thanks.
Keith Law: I do view them as contenders in 2020. First order of business would be adding a starting pitcher, probably via free agency.

Chris: O/U on David Peterson innings next year in majors: 100
Keith Law: With most teams I’d say over. I can’t figure out anything the Mets are doing; they are operating with such a short horizon that I find it hard to predict how they’ll use players or even who they’ll keep.

BigDaddeh: Would you be in favor of a mercy rule in baseball? And at what point? Up 12 runs after 7?
Keith Law: In the majors, no, please God no. In the minors, I’d be open to that rather than having position players pitching, because at that point the development is over.

davealden53: James Kaprielian keeps putting up competent or better 4 to 5 inning starts in Double-A. Might he be multi-inning option for the A’s in September and a #4 starter next year?
Keith Law: Yes to the former. I can’t predict his health after the TJ and long recovery … I thought he had #1 starter potential before he blew out, but can he hold his stuff and handle a starter’s workload? I don’t think anyone can reasonably answer that question.

Lee D, LA: Keith — Here in LA it felt like the Dodgers chances to win the WS dropped from 33% to 20% after the Yankees beat up Ryu and also will likely get home field advantage — and the Astros might too. Over-reaction to one 3 game series?
Keith Law: There is no reaction to a 3-game series that is not an overreaction.

addoeh: While he’s in Poland next week to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the start of WW II, do you think the Chosen One will pull aside the Czech Republic leader to ask if the Sudetenland is available for sale?
Keith Law: No, he’ll ask Czechia to give the Sudetenland to Putin.

Jon: Do you think the Phillies should bring Spencer Howard up in September?
Keith Law: If the weather holds, I’ll see him tonight. I have heard the stuff has tapered off since he came off the IL.

NMN: Please weigh in on Joe Girardi using R+RBI-HR, in two-thousand-freakin-nineteen, to come up with an MVP candidates list.
Keith Law: I missed that, and oh my god, no.

Kik: What are your general thoughts of the Jays pitching prospects besides Pearson?
Keith Law: Manoah is next in their pitching prospect rankings. I haven’t seen Murphy this year around his injuries, but the stuff has apparently been legit for a starter … if he can stay healthy. Maybe he’s a multi-inning reliever, but either way, he’s a real prospect. I think there’s a big dropoff to their next arm – they have some intriguing bats in short-season, but the pitching is pretty short.

Sebastian: Francisco Alvarez’s stat line looks great for a 17 year old in the Appy league. Top 3 prospect in the Mets system?
Keith Law: Top 5.

Chris: Amed Rosario has looked better at dish. Is his glove at SS league average?
Keith Law: It hasn’t been, and maybe they decide to give up on him there because they believe in Gimenez, but I don’t see any tangible reason Rosario can’t be a competent shortstop – not tools, not mental skills. His regression has been shocking.

Steve: I know they won’t do it, but given that the Rays are locked in a battle for a wild card spot would calling up Wander Franco be worth it or would it be too premature?
Keith Law: Premature.

Johnny Utah: Any restaurant recommendations for Maui or the Big Island?
Keith Law: Never been, unfortunately, only Oahu and Kauai. Enjoy, though – I’m jealous. Would love to see Volcanoes National Park.

Matthew: I completed my first ever script late last year for a potential tv show and I’m debating writing a fiction book or another script about a redemption story and how love of a sport brought a family together from turmoil and I’m wondering if it would be better it being a book or a screenplay?
Keith Law: I feel like you may have asked this before … it’s really a question for either a literary agent or someone on the publishing side. I don’t know anything about it; I just writes the words.

Mark : What was the difference between Billy Hamilton as an amateur SS in the minors and Trea Turner as an amateur SS defensively in the minors?
Keith Law: About four grades.

Zac: Of the Erie Seawolves rotation (Mize, Manning, Skubal, Faedo, Wentz) who are starters long term and who is a reliever
Keith Law: Skubal, Manning, and a healthy Mize are all good starters. Faedo is a reliever for me. Wentz is in the middle.

John: Would you say the Phillies biggest issue right now is player development or bad drafting? Or is a combination? How do you quickly and efficiently overhaul and entire dev department or scouting department?
Keith Law: They’ve had very poor results in the first round in particular, and I think you have to start there, but it is also fair to point to all the players who’ve regressed in their farm system over the last two years as well. The system-wide hitting approach this year really hasn’t worked out.

Coffee Grind: New to French Press but such a production for one cuppa coffee! Buying coarse ground coffee at local roaster but when do u get accustomed to the labor of warm up cup, carafe, presumably buy a kettle with temperature gauge , wait 4/5 min, then have coffee get cold some 10 min after plunge?
Keith Law: I don’t use a french press – I use a V60 pour-over – but really, you don’t need to do all that. Boil the water, wait about 30 seconds, and pour over the grounds. Splash a little of the extra hot water in the cup so it’s not cold when the coffee hits it. Steep the coffee for four minutes and pour. That’s it. The rest is eyewash.

MikeM: Whats Glyber’s ceiling? Hes 22 and hitting for more power than anyone projected (juiced ball caveats apply) and seemingly improving. Is he in the same class of player as Acuna and the other young phenoms?
Keith Law: He’s in the same class as Acuna for me, although I think both guys have benefited a lot from the juiced ball and Gleyber has especially benefited from, uh, his strength of schedule.

NMN: What’s current boardgame #1?
Keith Law: I’ve been debating that this year, since I’m about 2.5 months from my annual top 100 update. Tough to dislodge Carcassonne but all else being equal I think I’m more likely to pull out 7 Wonders if we have enough players and they’re okay with the game’s slightly more complicated rules.

Hank: Can we expect to see Luis Robert this year? If so, what can we expect? I know he doesn’t seem to hit when you are there, and you had concerns with his hit tool in the past.
Keith Law: I don’t know if he comes up this year due to service time/40-man space, but if he does I expect a lot of inconsistency with some real high points. A lot like Moncada so far, actually, at least in terms of the production. Major league pitchers are going to exploit Robert with velocity in, in a way he hasn’t seen much in the minors, and he has to show he can adjust to that.

addoeh: How would you rank the Caribbean islands you’ve visited?
Keith Law: The Jamaica experience was top-notch, but it was all within the resort, not about the entire island (friends of mine who were born there discouraged me from exploring). Aruba is probably my favorite and the most user-friendly. Puerto Rico has the benefit of an urban environment and culture that lets you get the best of both worlds – beach in the afternoon, dinner or nightlife in the evening. Bear in mind I haven’t been to PR or St. Thomas since before the twin hurricanes, though.

Trevor: Daulton Varsho in consideration for a top 100 update?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he already on mine?
Keith Law: Also, probably not a catcher. Seems like AZ agrees.

Juice: Where do you land on Tahnaj Thomas? Is he getting by solely on velocity or is he a legit arm in the Pirates’ system?
Keith Law: Big velocity guy. Not enough of a complete pitcher.

Jake: What are your impressions of Bubic this yr? Has he made any adjustments you are aware of or just a case of needing to be moved up/challenged?
Keith Law: Too advanced for A-ball, but the stuff is a lot of average. Back end starter without real upside.

Moe Mentum: Just curious whether you’ve read Cathy O’Neil’s “Weapons of Math Destruction” and if so, what you thought of it? If not, you might want to add it to your non-fiction reading list.
Keith Law: Heard of it but haven’t read it. Thank you. Still reading Wolf Hall and listening to Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel’s Autism.

John : When’s the best time to take anti-anxiety medication in the morning or at night before bed? Also, does clonazapam do damage to the brain? I’d take it everyday but I’m worried about the long term effects.
Keith Law: That will depend on the specific medication and your own body. I take escitalopram, and I take it mid-afternoon. I would definitely ask a doctor about clonazepam; I know benzodiazepenes can be habit forming.

Moe Mentum: At this point, I’m assuming Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer all cruise into the Hall of Fame in their first year of eligibility. Do you agree, and are there any other active pitchers who are also likely to get voted in via BBWAA balloting? (Greinke? Hamels? Sabathia? F.Hernandez?)
Keith Law: Yes to all three (and I’d vote for them). Sabathia I think will get in, but slowly. The others are probably all on the Very Good side of the line.

Alex: Would you consider Masahiro Tanaka a disappointment relative to his contract? 17.2 bWAR for $132,000,000 through 6 years seems decent. I think people kind of expected more when he was coming out of Japan
Keith Law: I would not. That’s a good outcome, especially since he came here with a wonky elbow and has pitched through for years.

Amir: You might have answered this before but where are you on the issue of legal sports betting? On the surface it seems like it would be great for state revenue but curious to hear your thoughts.
Keith Law: Hate it, but I accept it’s inevitable. Gambling in general is not a good industry for local economies; any rise in revenues from taxes or tourism (people coming to your state/town to gamble) will likely be offset by rising crime rates, including increased rates of domestic abuse. The flip side of this is that people are going to gamble even if it’s not legal, so it might as well be legal, taxed, and regulated.
Keith Law: This is essentially my take on prostitution … I would rather that be legal and out of the shadows, in that case for the protection of the sex workers themselves, since it’s going to exist whether it’s legal or not.

Beeds: Manoah, Pearson, Pardino, Kloffenstein, Kay, Simeon Woods … where does this group of pitchers rank in minors? Too 5?
Keith Law: Gah, I missed Kay. Sorry about that. Would go Pearson, Manoah, Kay, Murphy. Not top 5 in the minors, though. I’d say 15-20 systems could rattle off a list of names that’s at least comparable.

JT: I coach low A little league for 14 to 18 year olds (the lowest level): I’ve only ever let my charges throw 2 seamers, 4 seamers and circle changes.

The research seems to be clear on sliders being for the next age group up. Curveballs and knuckleballs aren’t as clear. Some sources say as low a 14 for curveballs is fine.

Thoughts? I value the arm over any win or pitch.
Keith Law: There’s some mixed research on the effects of breaking balls on young arms, but I agree with your conservative view. I think – this is a better question for researchers, I’m just cribbing what they’ve found – that total workload and avoiding maximum effort (don’t throw every pitch as hard as you can) is more important for arm health.

JT: You’ve never been high on Cavan Biggio, and certainly, there’s a lot to be desired this year. Still, his OBP is fine, his eye is excellent, and he’s got a 25/20 pace for homers and steals.

I know you’re unlikely to now be wearing his shirtsey, but do you have a little more hope for him now?
Keith Law: Not at all. He’s not worth the roster spot.

Jason: My apologies for not being clear enough. The walk led to runners on the corners with 1 out, setting up a potential double play by either Hechevarria (bad hitter) or Flowers (better, but really slow). With Hamilton on third, it doesn’t take a whole lot to get a run home with a ball in play, but a ball in play by Hechevarria or Flowers could have been a game-ending double play
Keith Law: Ah, I see, I did not understand the situation at all. I think I’d need some estimate of the probability of a double play in that situation to answer your question. My gut feeling is that we tend to overstate that probability in the general case, but perhaps for someone like Flowers it’s high enough that your hypothesis (that the out was preferable in this one specific situation) would bear out.

Moe Mentum: Nick Pivetta – the tools are there, but can he ever get results at the big-league level (in the rotation or the bullpen)?
Keith Law: The tools aren’t really there – he has never had a viable weapon for LHB.

Nick: Do you see Logan Gilbert making the M’s rotation by mid season 2020? Has been a fast riser this year and seemingly done well in AA so far.
Keith Law: He might be ready now, but they have no real need or impetus to promote him.

Steve: You mentioned earlier about your girlfriend and you going on vacation. You do a great job of sharing your personal life (you personally have helped me with anxiety by reccomending a book), have you talked about this previously. Please disregard if this is too personal
Keith Law: I’m divorced, and have been dating someone seriously (who reads my chats every week, hello my love) since the spring. I did discuss it in an email newsletter a few weeks ago but I don’t mind the question, since it seemed to come as a surprise to a lot of readers.

Pat D: It’s pretty obvious that we just need to cut ties with Puerto Rico at this point, right? I mean, they are constantly in the path of hurricanes, which is so unfair to the rest of us.
Keith Law: It’s sad when you can read that question in the President’s voice and find it totally plausible.

David: What weekend are you headed to AFL? Any reader meetups in the works while there?
Keith Law: I may go for the Fall Stars weekend (and the few days prior), but haven’t booked it yet. The change to the AFL schedule really screws up scouting plans.

Matt: Does Toronto have to go through customs every time they leave for a road trip and come home? If true, that’s gotta be annoying and a disadvantage over a full season.
Keith Law: It is annoying but how is it a disadvantage?

Jason: Keith…is Dylan Carlson a RF long term? Do you think he cracks the big league club next summer?
Keith Law: Yes, and probably yes.

Ridley: So…trade wars are a subject your educations would give you some insight into. Are there situations where they make sense, and, if so, is this one of them?

Completely unrelated, but any time he says “There is no one more X than me,” or “I’m the least Y person in the world,” that’s a helluva tell. I’d love to play poker with that guy.
Keith Law: The default assumption should always be that a trade war will damage both parties. You have a very high bar to clear to make a trade war economically advantageous in the long run, since they are always harmful in the short run. You could argue that a trade war with a country that is engaging in illegal or deleterious trade practices – we often hear of countries ‘dumping’ goods, although that’s often a misunderstanding of comparative advantage and lower labor costs – would restore long-term balance. I’m pretty confident that if you said every trade war was bad, however, you’d be right in just about each individual case.

Nick: Who’s your NL ROY?
Keith Law: With Tatis Jr. out, it has to be Alonso, no? Am I forgetting someone?

Pat D: Are there any potential Oscar contenders that have shown up on your radar yet this year? Would you watch “Joker” if it garners any nominations, even though it’s ostensibly a “comic book” movie?
Keith Law: Seems like the potential contenders, other than Once Upon…, haven’t come out yet. I’ll watch Joker if it’s supposed to be good, and not just “good for a comic book movie.”

Mat Ji: What sort of ceiling does Triston Casas have?
Keith Law: Above-average regular.

MTL: Mike Yastrzemski has been a good story for the Giants this season. Is he for real?
Keith Law: Extra OF, tops. Juiced ball has helped him, as well as just small sample size.

Zach: Do you think the ball has made GMs pause for a second for locking up young players? As a Yankee fan, watching Torres hit 40hrs as middle infielder, but if MLB changes the balls back to “normal” is he suddenly “just” 30hr power? (Yes the power numbers are just round numbers for this hypothetical).
Keith Law: To your general question, yes, it’s affecting how teams value players, and we’ll see that more this offseason (I think). Torres is pretty great at 20 HR, though.

OC Joe: @Johnny Utah: Mama’s Fish House in Maui is fantastic. Book well in advance.
Keith Law: Multiple people responded with this suggestion.

Kevin: Could Gilberto Jimenez be the Red Sox best prospect this time next year?
Keith Law: I saw him, and I like him, but I’d be very surprised if he made that large of a leap over guys like Casas and perhaps Groome now that he’s back and pitching.

Erik: how far along are you in Doctor Who? thoughts?
Keith Law: Finished S4, including the specials. (They really do lay it on thick when an actor leaves, don’t they?) I enjoy it, even though a lot of it is silly; they poke sufficient fun at themselves, and the point is nearly always the relationships between the Doctor and Companion(s), and the Doctor and certain other recurring characters.

Jay: Riley Greene has been struggling a bit at the plate since his move to full-season A. Is he still just getting adjusted to professional-level pitching or do you think it’s a bigger issue of swing mechanics?
Keith Law: That’s a huge jump for a kid who was still in high school three months ago.

Dylan: you have said previously that you do not believe zack collins has made any adjustments but Rick Hahn and the stats seem to indicate that he has (.365/.464/.713 with 10 hr and 21 bb in 33 games since he has returned to AAA compared to 9 hr 36 bb .2500/.374/.482 in the 50 AAA games prior to his call up)
Keith Law: I saw him. It’s the same guy. Be careful slicing that thinly or you will see what you want to see.

Roxanne: I hate Christian Yelich.
Keith Law: Roxanne, you don’t have to click that send tweet button.

Zach: Thoughts on non-meat alternatives reaching “mainstream” fast food restaurants? Yay for alternatives, but Nay for 900 calorie sandwiches?
Keith Law: Yay for alternatives, especially since many of these are substantially more environmentally friendly than beef. If you want to eat a 900 calorie sandwich, it’s your body. I don’t love policing how healthful others’ diets are; I’m more concerned with ensuring sustainable food and water supplies.

Tom: But seriously… What would you do if your parents were serious Trumpers? It really sucks since, you know, I love my parents. It’s just unfathomable to me how they’ve gone this far. It really is the Fox News effect.
Keith Law: I haven’t faced anything like this, fortunately, but I would cut off any family member who was a serious Trump supporter. You can’t approve of the white nationalism, the anti-LGBT policies, the environmental destruction in the name of profits, and still act like we have some sort of emotional bond. If you don’t think trans people are people, well, fuck off.

Julie : I’m an O’s fan looking for good news in the minors, and I realize I should take overall team performance there with a large grain of salt, but is there anything positive to be gleaned from Delmarva’s success this year? I feel like just being in a winning environment has to help the psyche a bit, although obviously that does not necessarily translate to success down the line. I know you’re not as high on Grayson Rodriguez as some are, but outside him and Adley, are there any solid ML prospects there? Also, it’s cool that Ryan Mountcastle won the IL MVP, but I already knew that didn’t mean a whole lot historically without even looking at the list, then saw that last year’s league MVP is already playing in Japan.
Keith Law: Adam Hall for Delmarva has also had a good year and I think he’s a regular. Some quality relievers there. There are some signs of hope in the low minors. I’m not a big Mountcastle believer, though; he lacks a position and his low OBPs are probably chronic.

Larry: That Nick Solak players I missed on article is writing itself.
Keith Law: After 25 at bats? Go call the people who tried to troll me when Austin Riley had a great first two weeks and see how they’re doing. I haven’t heard from them in a while.

Bret: Keith – has a certain type of pitcher been hurt by the juiced baseball or is it something that affects everyone equally? Thinking a guy who might make a rebound of sorts…assuming they change the ball back. Thanks.
Keith Law: Probably yes. Almost certainly yes. I would love to have Statcast data to explore that question, as I think that’s where you might find them.

Dylan: Do you see Nick Madrigal being able to sustain his 3% k rate in the majors next season?
Keith Law: No.

KC: Kyle Hendricks is a player you missed on. No biggie of course. Is there a way to ID any other 88 mph wonders?
Keith Law: He was in one of my year-end columns on those guys, too. I’d still bet against any RHP throwing a below-average fastball; their margin for error could be measured in microns.

Danny: Re comic book movies- did you watch/enjoy the second Christopher Nolan Batman- fun thriller with some great individual performances but you do have to ask why this dude is running around dressed like a bat growling like a schmo
Keith Law: The Dark Knight was fine, but I didn’t quite understand the acclaim. I thought it had one incredible performance, was generally well written, but still relied on conventions of the genre and went on a bit too long. I never saw the Dark Knight Returns.

Glenn T : At an A’s meet and greet event in Tokyo during the Opening Series in March, an A’s official hinted at the A’s returning to Japan within the next few years. Are you privy to any future plans MLB is considering for visits to Japan and other countries?
Keith Law: London again next year. Regular trips to PR/Mexico/perhaps somewhere else in Latin America. The rumor I’ve heard, but that is totally unconfirmed, is that MLB would like to play games in continental Europe. The Netherlands seems like such an obvious spot if they can find a facility, since the sport has a real following there.

tj: Now that you saw Clarke shmidt, would you say all things combined u like him better than Garcia?
Keith Law: I would not.

Tevin: Soroka for NL ROY over Alonso, no?
Keith Law: I’d vote for Alonso over Soroka.

Matt: How do we sign up for your newsletter?
Keith Law: Sign up here. I send them once every two weeks or so, when I have content to tell you about.

Sean: Do you think Jhoan Duran’s emergence this year is real and what is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Real, yes. Whether he’s a mid-rotation starter or high-value reliever, I don’t know. I hear both. Maybe that ‘splinker’ is more than just a once-through-the-order weapon?

Zach: Republicans/Trans people – I feel like most Republicans are pissed they “lost” the gay rights battle, so they’re going all out not to “lose” the trans rights battle.
Keith Law: That’s a good point, and at least has the ring of truth. Also, I think GOP strategists have found more ignorance of or outright prejudice against trans people, and they’re exploiting it. It’s venal.

Jon: When Conforto was coming up through the minors, did you ever view him as a streaky hitter? He gets bashed by a lot of Mets fans because of this, even though his overall numbers are still very good.
Keith Law: No, I never thought that. Not really sure ‘streaky’ hitters are a thing … a hitter’s hits are never going to be uniformly distributed throughout the season.

Paul: Is the juiced ball here to stay? Per that earlier question, if this is the new normal, and teams are valuing players based on that – it can really screw something up long term. For instance a player like Alonso, probably loses a lot/all? of his value if he is more of a 30hr guy at 1b.
Keith Law: MLB will almost certainly tinker with the ball this winter, but we can’t predict how, or what the effects would be. To your point, however, yes, I think we will see some contracts that look fine in this high HR environment that suddenly look worse if the ball even goes halfway back to where it was. I’m trying not to sound like I’m yelling at a cloud, but seeing one baseball in the majors and another in AA and below is kind of maddening when it comes to writing about or evaluating players.
Keith Law: Thank you all for your questions and for the many notes of support and empathy that I didn’t post for the public. I really appreciate the kind works. With my daughter back in school the chats should be more regular and I will try to get back on to an every Thursday schedule starting next week. Thanks for reading. Have a safe Labor Day weekend.

Keith Law: True identity hidden inside secret tabloids. Klawchat.

Mickey Callaway: Given the silly ball, are groundball pitchers like Stroman more valuable than in a normal environment?
Keith Law: I don’t think so offhand, but that’s a question someone could answer with empirical evidence.

Ben: Have you read (or do you plan on reading) The Luminaries by Eleanor Catton, winner of the 2013 Man Booker? If you haven’t yet gotten to it, I’d offer a slight nudge against any aspirations to do so. Too fat for such little character depth has me questioning that Booker panel..
Keith Law: I haven’t because of its weight (been reading shorter books this summer or e-books since I’m traveling/going to games a lot).

James: Thoughts on the Blue Jays rookie hitters so far?
Keith Law: I’m buying Vlad and Bichette, of course. Gurriel’s power is real, not sure there’s much OBP there. That’s it.

Moe Mentum: Adam Haseley – SSS, but is he performing above, at, or below your expectations in the majors so far? Anything sustainable as a long-term starting/platoon OF?
Keith Law: Probably above expectations. Just an extra OF.

Joe: Can you think a reason why Chris Davis is still on the Orioles? The only reason I have heard is that he isn’t blocking anyone, but even though that is true it is a silly reason.
Keith Law: I would just cut him at this point. He’s below r-level, never getting better, and not worth the roster spot.

zuke354: Is it ok to start believing in Arozarena? Just a little bit?
Keith Law: I think the .432 BABIP might be both a fluke and driven by the silly ball in AAA.

Bob: Can Isaac Paredes ride his contact ability/bad body combo to become an above average infielder at either 2B or 3B?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on that. Maybe an average regular. No projection there.

zuke354: How long before somebody skips the walmarts and opens fire in a crowded stadium?
Keith Law: It’d be hard to get a weapon into a major league stadium, but the minors … there are simply too many guns out there. It seems inevitable that this will happen in an extremely crowded place and we’ll see 100+ dead.

Chris: Mets should offer Wheeler QO regardless, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bob: Cal Raleigh has started to hit in AA. Can he be an average regular?
Keith Law: I would buy that.

Robert: Is Luis Campusano on the short list of top C prospects behind Adley, Bart, Ruiz and may he be a first div regular?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes. Behind Cartaya, I think.

ndrah: some talk about the twins calling up one or two of their top pitching prospects this fall. Do you think Graterol could contribute?
Keith Law: Maybe in relief?

Robert: I was pleasantly surprised to see X Edwards on your top 50. Do you see more upside with him long term than Urias?
Keith Law: Absolutely. Urias is more ready Edwards has more upside.

Christopher: Should I expect a reasonably intelligent 6 year old (my son) to have reasonable chance of being able to play Splendor?
Keith Law: My daughter played it competently at age 7.

JSG: What do the Dodgers do with Gavin Lux? He appears, judging from his small AAA stat line, to be MLB-ready or close to it. But Seager can’t be moved to third while Turner’s there, and Turner is still productive.
Keith Law: Second base?

Jason: Is Anthony Santander just a guy having a hot streak, or is he something more?
Keith Law: Something more. Might be a regular there. Shouldn’t his nickname be “Banco” by now?

Devin: Have the Nats pushed Luis Garcia too aggressively? Only 19 put struggling at AA 258/285/309 at AA
Keith Law: They have pushed him aggressively, but I also don’t find any support for him from scouts.

Allison: Thanks for allowing a glimpse into your life away from baseball in your newsletters. The benefit of hindsight notwithstanding, do you understand argument (not necessarily agree with) that the A’s were prudent in taking high risk prospects like Austin Beck and Kylar Murray with consecutive top-10 picks because they couldn’t sign players with tools like than in an open market? Do you see a 10% chance that Beck could ever perform well enough to justify his high draft position? Thanks.
Keith Law: I do understand the philosophy, but perhaps not those specific picks. What happened with Murray was a bit out of nowhere – I don’t think anybody saw him as a first-round NFL talent until last fall – but I’m not sure he was really a top ten MLB talent anyway.

MHG: What is the spread of what teams spend on scouting and player development? Tigers can’t seem to do either. Is it lack of resources or personnel or both?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s financial. I think in this case it’s philosophical.

Aaron C.: Do you have the correct opinion on the movie “Field of Dreams” like Craig Calcaterra or do you like it?
Keith Law: I like it. It’s fine, not my favorite baseball movie, definitely on the sappy side, but it’s fine.

Fan of team you hate: How have the reports been on Trevor Rogers? Surface numbers look solid.
Keith Law: Reports have also been solid, not spectacular, but solid enough to say 4th starter.

Uli Jon: Just returned from a trip to Colombia and could not recommend it more (well at least Medellin and Cartagena, Bogota is just ok). What is the baseball program like there? Obviously soccer is king, but from what I understand there’s a bit of baseball on the Caribbean coast.
Keith Law: Would love to go there for vacation or work. Good baseball there, just not enough volume of players yet to think of it in the same breath as DR/Venezuela, but it’s coming on.

Tribe called jest: Aaron Bracho seems to be holding his own in the AZL, anything to get excited about? Thank you.
Keith Law: Yes, wrote him up positively in March when I saw him.

BigDaddeh: Was Frazier+Schmidt fair for Robbie Ray? Or did Dbacks truly need more from NYY
Keith Law: What is Frazier’s upside at this point? Can you bet on him becoming a regular? I wouldn’t.
Keith Law: And Schmidt’s delivery has always been a big red flag for me even before he had TJ.

Todd: Who do you ultimately think becomes the better ML pitcher between Sixto and Edward Cabrera?
Keith Law: I have Sixto ahead of Edward right now, but a healthy Garrett is ahead of both of them.

Ben: Is Luis Arraez a potential GUY? The Twins’ coaching staff just gushes about him but he looks kind of like a slap hitter with limited upside. He also seems to have taken Schoop’s job.
Keith Law: I think a good utility guy.

Derek: Do you envision Brock Burke as a future rotation piece for the Rangers?
Keith Law: Sure.

Jason: Seems like the Mets have found a hot streak, but that the the front office still has no real long term plan. Just a little luck.
Keith Law: And a very soft schedule the last month.

Nick: Seth Corry is currently having a breakout season. What’s his ceiling? TOR potential?
Keith Law: No. Mid-rotation potential.

Pramit: Can you recall a GM who’s made as many absurd comments talking up an organization the way Ross Atkins has?
Keith Law: He’s really bad at the PR part of his job. Saying less would be better.

Jeffrey : What do you think about the hard and fast July 31 trade deadline? With all the brains in the front offices I’m surprise that waivers is complicated. Is that why they change the rules?
Keith Law: Preventing teams from trading DFA’d players in August is both dumb and regressive. They’ll need to fix that.

J: This isn’t a question, this is a comment. Every time someone is a dipshit about you being light on someone you should just cough and say you had Tatis, Jr. in your top 50 when he wasn’t in BA’s Padres top 20.
Keith Law: One thing I’ve learned in this job is that far more people will point out my misses than will acknowledge my hits. I had people argue I was wrong about Zack Godley, Tony Kemp, and Maikel Franco when those guys had brief periods of productivity, and not one of them came back when those players were DFA’d in the last few weeks to say they were wrong.

Carl: Thoughts on Joey Cantillo? Does he need to add some velocity to be a guy? His numbers/age seem impressive.
Keith Law: He does need to add velocity to be a GUY, still potentially a major leaguer as is.

Jason: Early thoughts on Unbearable Lightness? The movie with Day Lewis, Binoche, and Olin is terrific, but loses Kundera’s philosophical views.
Keith Law: Almost done; this sort of novel is a bit out of my wheelhouse as I have so little background in philosophy. Kundera renounced the movie for the reason you mentioned. I’m moving through the book rather quickly – 50 pages left, trying to finish before vacation – but I haven’t connected with whatever he’s trying to say.

Joseph: What are your thoughts on Brailyn Marquez? Not sure how excited to be about him.
Keith Law: Every scout I’ve asked about him has been positive but said he’s a high-end reliever rather than a starter.

Mike: Ryan McMahon has been decent for Col this season, what do you think his offensive output ultimately is like in his prime?
Keith Law: I’m still shocked he strikes out as often as he does, but he can be productive at this level. I think he’s a .500+ SLG guy by next year.

BigDaddeh: Mlb game at Field of Dreams site. Cool, tacky or eh whatever?
Keith Law: I’m out. Play these games where we can grow the audience. Maybe that’s overseas, but what about putting games in potential expansion markets, like Portland or Austin or Charlotte? Bring MLB games to markets that typically don’t get to see them.

Kevin: Could Dalbec next year hit 30 HR with a 340 OBP in the majors?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on that OBP.

Jason: Did Zaidi make a big mistake in not selling everything, including Bumgarner? The hot streak has faded and they just got swept by the Nationals.
Keith Law: I think they should have sold everything, but who knows what ownership told Zaidi to do.

John: I read this evaluation of Dustin May earlier today – how many people in the industry think like this? “He’s not part of the exciting crop of starters that present legit upside for years to come. His sinker has life at 95+, but he didn’t have great command with the pitch. His cutter is solid and was effective here against the lowly Cardinals, but that’s it. His curveball is nothing to write home about, and I’m worried the heater is too susceptible to blowup games without enough upside.”
Keith Law: Nobody. That’s a big miss.

Adam: Like the promotions of Pache, Waters and Anderson to AAA? Would Pache, Waters and Acuna be the best defensive OF in baseball?
Keith Law: Three guys who could play CF.

Felix: Do you have any information on Tahnaj Thomas?
Keith Law: Up to 100 without command.

Andrew: KLaw: “Il meglio è l’inimico del bene” – i mean, no philosophical chasm across Dem candidates is as consequential or enormous as that between any of them and the current president – surely people will understand this by Nov ’20 and do the right thing, right? I’m disturbed by those who stubbornly go with the “my candidate or bust” stance…seems selfish, short-sighted and, well, stupid.
Keith Law: I got some of this today from Mariane Williamson supporters, who appear to all be made of stardust and oblivious to the strongly anti-science views she’s espoused for thirty years, to say nothing of her outright promotion of pseudoscientific bullshit or bigoted statements against people with disabilities. They don’t care. They want to talk about peace and love and good happiness stuff. The fucking mediots falling for this shit – AGAIN – should be ashamed. Cover the candidates who talk policy, not the ones who shoot rainbows out of their asses.

Corey B: Braxton Garrett is producing in A but is 22. What should I make of the success?
Keith Law: Age is largely immaterial for pitchers. Also, he’s 21 by seasonal age (turned 22 last week), and in high-A, which is appropriate for a 21-year-old player.

Aaron Houston, Tx: Klaw, I mentor a young college bound boy who recently changed his career path from engineering (my field) to journalism. Can you provide a few insights where I can advise him to get his feet wet. I feel blogging could be a good start. Maybe some volunteer work for a local paper or club. Any thoughts are greatly appreciated.
Keith Law: Eek, tough field to get into right now. Unfortunately, I didn’t come up through any sort of traditional career path, so I don’t know how people typically get into journalism.

romorr: Dean Kremer has looked sharp of late, is he still back end? What could he do to raise his profile, if he can that is. TY
Keith Law: Still a back end guy with that cross-fire delivery.

romorr: Most Oriole fans love Mountcastle, but I can’t get over the 3-4% walk rate. He is 22, but isn’t that a harder skill to teach? Just worried he is going to have to hit .290-.300 to have a respectable OBP.
Keith Law: Unlikely he gets to the point he can be a regular. I know some people were angry I didn’t have him on my top 100, but he clearly didn’t belong between low on-base skills and lack of position.

David (OR): Hi, Keith. Thanks for everything. Will Smith (Dodgers) – what’s his future with Keibert Ruiz on his heels? Are his solid numbers offensively just a result of SSS or is he a legitimate first-division starter?
Keith Law: Smith is an All-Star. Ruiz is probably trade bait at this point, but a very good prospect in his own right.

Brendan: Is Dante Bichette Jr a future major leaguer?
Keith Law: Org guy.

Robbie: How big is the gap between Nick Allen and Nick Madrigal? Am I way off in thinking that Allen is underrate estimated as a prospect?
Keith Law: Not that big. Not sure I would have Madrigal above Allen, since the latter can play a good SS.

Adam: Alex Jackson isnt setting the world on fire in AAA but if he can produce that stat line isnt he a MLB Regular at catcher?
Keith Law: He’d have to be a good enough defensive catcher to do that.

Oscar: Is it time to accept that Buxton’s body is just not going to cooperate with him? I love seeing him play, but it saddens me to think that injuries are going to rob him of the opportunity to do so.
Keith Law: No.

Dean: Have you heard from anyone inside baseball that that there will be an effort to revert to the pre-2016 baseball? This silliness can’t continue. The baseball currently being used in MLB is making a bigger mockery of statistics then PEDs ever did. Agree?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything along those lines – MLB does not seem to want to discuss the altered baseball, at least not in public. I agree it’s making a mockery of the game, not just stats, but in trying to evaluate players … imagine being a scout who’s assigned the AA and AAA affiliates of a specific team. You see the same hitter at both levels, but in AA he’s nothing special and in AAA he’s launching balls over the fence. How do you write *that* up?

Cashman: Garcia or Gil long term?
Keith Law: Garcia. I haven’t seen Gil myself but I hear he’s more likely a pen guy. Contreras > Gil right now.

Phanatic: Been hearing positive things on Phillies OF Johan Rojas. Got any intel on him?
Keith Law: Good feel to hit, with some speed and a good arm, not sure if he’s a CF in the long run.
Keith Law: A real prospect, though.

Ryan: The Brewers Devin Williams a legit late inning RP prospect, or more of a middle reliever?
Keith Law: He’s a real prospect as a reliever, but I don’t feel confident saying exactly what sort of reliever.

Graham: Why is Joey Bart so well regarded when reports generally hold that he possesses 2 subpar tools (defense and hit)?
Keith Law: His defense is subpar? What?

Craig: Keith, what you got on DBacks OF Alex Thomas? Just promoted to High A which I believe makes him one of, if not the youngest player in the entire A+ level.
Keith Law: He was on my top 50…

Ryan R: What is Jesse Winker’s ceiling? Guy consistently puts up a high OBP but defensive metrics haven’t been kind to him. Is his offensive profile strong enough to carry him into a everyday lineup spot?
Keith Law: He’ll never be a good defender, most likely, but I think he’s capable of getting on base like he did in 2018 and hitting for 200+ ISO like he did this year.
Keith Law: That’s an everyday player.

Mike: Jeff McNeil seems like an odd situation with him being 27 and finally being in the big leagues/MLB. What held him back from being a prospect?? General health or did he just improve?
Keith Law: Missed several years – 2.5? – to injuries. Also has one tool, really, the hit tool, specifically his ability to put the ball in play, which tends to be harder to scout/not something you want to bank on in the absence of any other tools.
Keith Law: I know he’s a fan favorite but by the time he’s arb-eligible he’ll be 30, and that skill he has does not typically age well.

Andrew : Giants are apparently promoting Ramos to AA today. Is this a little too aggressive?
Keith Law: Yikes. After last year, I wouldn’t be rushing him up the ladder.

Beau: Why did the Padres give up on Franmil? Will it come back to haunt?
Keith Law: Low OBP/improved pitch recognition from last fall hasn’t held up, also a poor defensive OF who may have to go to 1b or DH. I get it. They have better OF options coming and already have two 1b who don’t hit enough for the spot.

Mary: What is Thairo Estrada’s upside? He looked good in small sample size
Keith Law: Just saw him again on Tuesday – I really like him, probably as a utility infielder, just a really solid player who’ll put the ball in play and help out at 3 positions.

Jason: Does Michel Baez have a future as a starter, or is he in the right spot as a reliever?
Keith Law: Reliever for me.

Gun Control: PASS ME NOW PLEASE!
Keith Law: Mitch says no, while counting his NRA money.

Cole Fired: Do you think given how his profile fits their organizational philosophy (spin rate, k’s, etc) and his age fits their contending window the Yankees should aggressively pursue Cole this offseason?
Keith Law: Yes and I would bet they will.

Joe: Did the Tigers do the right thing trading Castellanos? Seems like the compensatory pick value may have been higher had they simply kept him and made a QO. Admittedly though, some of the new QO rules have my mind twisted in a pretzel so I may be misunderstanding all this.
Keith Law: I think they should have traded him sooner, but the trade was probably fine.

Dylan : Could you see a guy like Micker Adolfo or Luis Basabe get called up in September due to them being on the 40 man already and only having 2 option years remaining
Keith Law: Not for that reason, no. Adolfo could end up getting a fourth option in time.

BBTN: It’s really been a pleasure listening to you on the baseball tonight podcast the last two days, thanks for doing it
Keith Law: My pleasure – always good to get back with Eric again, plus I had two longtime friends on as guests in Alex Speier (buy his new book Homegrown, it’s good) and Joe Sheehan.

Craig: How come Joey Bart and Carter Kieboom did not make your midseason top 50? What are the shortcomings?
Keith Law: Neither was really close. I had more than 50 players ahead of each.

Jeff: JD Davis! Has no position but bat seems legit, right?
Keith Law: SSS.

Zihuatanejo: Austin Barnes almost immediately started killing it in AAA after looking done in the bigs. What are the odds he be a good (or at least serviceable) major league hitter?
Keith Law: Near nil.

Ted: You were on Balazovic as a stud pretty early. What are your thoughts on Jhoan Duran?
Keith Law: That one ‘splinker’ pitch he throws is legit. I hear some starter, some reliever; depends on whether you think that one pitch is enough of a carrying tool to let him turn a lineup over 3x.

Rahn: Sorry if I’m late to your opinion on this, but re: the Pirates holding onto Vasquez, what have you heard/read about the package(s) the Pirates were sifting through from L.A., Atlanta, etc. and why in the world did they not deal him?
Keith Law: No idea. I try not to get too deep into the rumor weeds because some of it is always bullshit.

Eric: I went to journalism school at Florida. My advice to Aaron’s mentee would be to major in something else (polsci, biz, etc), and minor in/take classes in journalism. Much more productive route I wish I chose.
Keith Law: I did wonder if developing subject matter expertise would be more useful. Hell, I took one writing class after high school, only because my college required it, and got a fucking B+ because the clown who taught it (an adjunct) was a poet, not a prose writer, and struggled with the basics of syntax and punctuation.

Will: What kind of player do you expect Isan Diaz to be? Is he another guy that’s tough to evaluate based on this season due to the AAA/MLB baseball?
Keith Law: We have some history on him, though, that says he should be at least a regular, chance for an above-average one.

Mike: Brudsar graterol – solid number 2 in his prime?
Keith Law: Uh, no. No.

westin: yordan alvarez incapable of playing 1B, or Astros just being overly cautious?
Keith Law: I think he’s a DH only. Bad body, doesn’t move well.

Chip: Surprised by Will Smith’s start, or has he always had this power?
Keith Law: Dodgers altered his swing to unlock more power before 2018. He’s legit.

Jason: Has Cartaya progressed to the point the Dodgers would be better served dealing Ruiz in the winter to help an area of need?
Keith Law: IMO, yes, he has.

Roger: How did you rate James Kaprielian before the arm injuries?
Keith Law: Potential #1 starter.

Roger Megardy: Does Pete Fairbanks have a future as a legit MLB reliever?
Keith Law: A reliever, yes. A good one, I don’t know.

Joel: Every prospect site I check still has Travis Swaggerty as a promising prospect. I’m scouting the stat line, but I see almost nothing to recommend him as a top prospect dating back to his junior year in a non-elite conference. Can Swaggerty actually be an impact outfielder in the majors?
Keith Law: At this point he won’t be on my top 100. College products pretty much have to hit right away.

JT: You’ve been down on Lamet because of his 2 pitch repertoire (and down is of course relative). Is his breakout as a SP real, or is he still consigned to the late innings with that FB/SL combo?
Keith Law: He’s had a breakout? He’s a two pitch guy, still, and as a result lefties are killing him.

Josh Nelson: What did you like, and dislike, about watching Luis Robert recently?
Keith Law: I disliked all the swinging and missing. I liked that he was actually in the lineup, though. That’s a welcome change for me.

Pat: As to the “open fire in a stadium” question, you don’t need to get in to the stadium. A bigger concern to me is someone opening fire just outside a football or baseball stadium right about 15-30 minutes before gametime when everyone is being herded like cattle thru a few entrances.
Keith Law: I feel like some other writers pointed that out when MLB started this security theater bullshit of metal detectors … they just create vulnerabilities outside the park rather than inside.
Keith Law: I really don’t think I’d attend many MLB games if I had to pay for them and go as a fan, not as a member of the press. The experience of getting to and into most ballparks is too onerous.

El Zilcho: Has there been any change in perception of the Mariners’ player development system over the last couple of years? It seems like it was terrible for so long…
Keith Law: I mean, they have better players now. That sort of helps.

Chris: Regarding today’s ICE raids in MS, why focus on the immigrant worker and not the employer (prosecution is very rare)? I personally don’t approve of either, but if you believe immigration is a problem it seems more pragmatic to focus enforcement efforts at the massive corporations.
Keith Law: Massive corporations tend to donate more to political candidates than undocumented workers do. I think that might be a factor.

Kevin: Would you consider it an accomplishment or a failure if the Dodgers made it to the WS 3 straight years but lost every year
Keith Law: I would. I know Eric said on the pod this morning he would think that would be seen as a failure.

Chris: Amed Rosario turning a corner? I’m still surprised at how bad is defense is, can you explain how scouts missed that?
Keith Law: Scouts didn’t miss it; it has been markedly worse this year than ever before. I don’t know what the Mets are or aren’t doing but it seems like that has to be on the coaching staff.

Jason: Is Trent Grisham legit?
Keith Law: Yes. I’m in.

Chris: Is Tim Beckham’s career over?
Keith Law: Remember those two weeks when Rays fans were apoplectic they traded him and people thought the Orioles had gotten a steal? That was fun.

Kevin: I know Jake Rogers isn’t going be an All-Star but do you think he is a starting C
Keith Law: Maybe with the defense but I don’t think he’s going to hit.

Chris: ETAs for Peterson and Szapucki? Also is Kevin Smith any good?
Keith Law: Next year for Peterson, maybe 2021 for Szapucki, and I have never liked Smith’s movies.

Mucho: How do you manage to get so much done (work, family, reading a thousand books)? Any tips?
Keith Law: I don’t watch much TV at all and now I’m spending less time online (especially Twitter).

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: I’m always curious about discrepancies in rankings (i.e Garcia). You–and people you talk to–have him down. But evaluators at BA, for example, have him in the 2nd half of the Top-100. What do they see you don’t, or vice versa?
Keith Law: No idea. You’d have to ask them. I’ve seen Garcia and talked to many scouts about him. He’s a nice player, but not a top 100 guy. He’s just young.

JT: I still regret that the Jays didn’t get Dom Smith out of the Mets even at the cost of having added another player to the deal. Rowdy is another case you could use as a feather in the cap, by the by.
Keith Law: People complaining to Mike Wilner (a friend from my Toronto days) about my takes on Tellez was fun.

spcohn: Moniak has really picked up performance and has very good numbers (excluding a April) for a 21 yo in AA. I know that you had been down on him in the past…change your view?
Keith Law: Nope. Saw him a month ago. He’s not good. Reading is the best hitter’s environment in the Eastern League, BTW. Didn’t you try to gotcha me over Deivy Grullon back in the spring when he had a hot start? He’s at .236/.314/.390 since June 1st and still can’t catch.

Brian: I’m wondering if you read any of the reporting (especially Matt Gelb’s piece in the Athletic) on why the Phillies are so aggressive pushing kids to Lakewood after you questioned the move. I’d be curious as to your thoughts on their rationale.
Keith Law: I’ll have to check that out, but the proof is in the pudding: I don’t see any players who’ve benefited from that aggressive promotion philosophy in their system. Their Luis Garcia, who does have tools, looks woefully overmatched, and should have been sent down to Williamsport (which he skipped) a month ago. I have seen him three times already and just feel bad for the kid.

Mickey Callaway: Marianne Williamson has policies worth hearing on reparations. She’s not a good candidate, but she’s leading that charge.
Keith Law: She doesn’t belong on the stage. The Democrats are the one party that thinks science is real. Putting an anti-science crank on the debate stages merely cedes one of the party’s actual advantages.

Jay: Joe Ryan, Rays. Decimating Hi-A ball. Aberration, or for real?
Keith Law: He’s killed one tenth of A-ball hitters? Damn. He’s a back-end starter – a real prospect, just not much upside. Tommy Rancel just saw him a few weeks ago but I don’t know if he wrote him up.

Adam: it seems Padres are planning big offseason moves, Everyone other than Gore and Tatis considered untouchable to you?
Keith Law: Patiño too.

Jim: I know you’re not super high on him, but just curious what your thoughts are on Nick Madrigal?
Keith Law: Soft regular. Saw him again Tuesday, will write that game up this afternoon.

Nick G: Not a question, but the difference in where you rank Carter Keiboom and the rest of prospect evaluators is large. If I read correctly, you have Carter outside your top 100 but many outlets have him in their top 25. Not a criticism, I just find that interesting since I typically lean to your opinion.
Keith Law: I don’t know what they think of him. I see a non-shortstop without speed or power. He can hit but he’d have to have a 65 hit tool to be a top 25 prospect for me.

CB: Will we ever see Alex Reyes after this latest setback/reoccurrence of shoulder pain?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say “never,” but his odds keep going down. I did not like his delivery when I first saw him, and when I last saw him this spring it was the same. Short stride guys tend to get hurt.

Larry: It looks like Zack Collins made a swing adjustment. How do you think it will affect his future outlook?
Keith Law: I just saw him Tuesday. He did not make a swing adjustment. He was also atrocious behind the plate.

Krontz: My 6 yr old son loves Kingdomino and does well with it. Any other game recommendations based on that for him?
Keith Law: I’m glad to hear that – it’s such a good gateway game. Splendor might work. Ticket to Ride or its kids’ version First Journey would be on my list of suggestions. Lost Cities is good if he’s comfortable with numbers (you really just have to be able to order numbers 1-10, as the rest is just a sort of gambling game).

Craig: Can Cavan Biggio be what he has been thus far? An average-ish hitter (factoring in the walks) who is below average defensively but plays enough positions to aid a Major League roster?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: What position can he actually play? He’s been bad everywhere I’ve seen him, and he doesn’t hit.

Jim: Are you buying the breakout from Giolito?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jason: Is there a specific reason for Heliot Ramos’ improvement this year over last year?
Keith Law: Some physical development, some that he was just too young/not ready for low-A.

Sean: Is bukauskas a reliever at this point?
Keith Law: Possible. Would think the Dbacks will try him as a starter for now.

Nathan K: Rosario seems to be improving drastically this summer. Do you still hold him in high regard or do the deficiencies he’s shown to date at the MLB level bring him down future projection-wise
Keith Law: As a hitter, unchanged. But this year at SS has been a disaster.

Jamie: Why wasn’t Yordan on your top 100 before the season?
Keith Law: Because it’s not a list of the top 100 prospects for this season, but for the long term, and it’s not a list of offensive prospects, but of total value. He’s most likely a DH, not a good athlete, and doesn’t move well or project to age particularly easily. He can hit and has power – omitting a player from my top 100, or a midseason top 50, or even a team’s top 10 is not tantamount to saying he’s a bad player or a non-prospect. You’ve probably made one of those mistakes: thinking it’s just about this year, thinking it’s just about offense, or thinking a non top 100 guy must be bad. None of those are true.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – I’ve got to write up the Luis Robert debacle, and then it’s vacation time for me. Thank you all as always for reading and for the kind words after my last few newsletters. I appreciate you all. I’ll be back next Thursday for another chat.

Keith Law: Motives changing day to day. Klawchat.

Wilson Ramos: Do you think BVW pulls a Preller? The Mets have a solid number of controllable assets to trade, and they have time to rebuild a team around McNeil and Alonso.
Keith Law: He should pull a Preller, but McNeil is 27, likely to be 30 by the time this team is good again, and not someone you’re building around. I wonder what he’d be worth in trade, given his minimum salary and the high probability he’s peaking right now.

Matt: Prospect junkies seem to always be looking for the next mega prospect. On the heels of Guerrero and Franco, who do you see as the next fixation? Luciano? Someone else? Thanks.
Keith Law: There isn’t a next Franco or Vlad (or Tatis). There are some very good teenaged Latin American prospects in low-A and short-season, including Luciano, Ronny Mauricio, George Valera, and Diego Cartaya, and don’t sleep on Corbin Carroll.

Brian in Austin: Doesn’t it make more sense for the Rangers (indeed, any team in the same position), to just keep Minor and Lynn since they are signed beyond this year, as opposed to trading one or both for some middling prospect(s), which seems to be the only type of prospects teams trade anymore?
Keith Law: I doubt Minor gets traded for middling prospects. Lynn, maybe, but Minor is worth more than that.

Ker Pal: If you were running the Jays, would you trade Stroman or extend him? He’s only 28, appears willing to stay, and is the only MLB-caliber starter they have at the moment. Why deal him?
Keith Law: Because they need more than just him, and there isn’t much other pitching there in the majors or high minors beyond Pearson.

Greg P: In reading Joe Sheehan yesterday, he still seems to think the Giants should be sellers despite this recent hot streak. I tend to agree. What say you?
Keith Law: I completely agree with Joe.

Jim L: Do the Cubs have any internal options to help their playoff push or who should they target? Also, when are you going to The Athletic?
Keith Law: Seems like Alzolay in some role is the only internal help they’re likely to get. My contract with ESPN is up at the end of the year; I can’t tell you where I’ll be writing in 2020.

JT: Is the Nomar Mazara experience always going to be this boring, or should we have more appreciation for a consistent performer at his age?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time.

JR: So, Jonah Fucking Keri, huh? Fuck him.
Keith Law: I might not have phrased it exactly the same way, but I agree with your sentiments.

Jerry: Have Whitley’s or Tucker’s ceilings taken a hit this year? Should the Astros be willing to deal either or both for a Syndergaard, Stroman, etc?
Keith Law: Ceilings, no. I certainly wonder if Whitley is truly healthy. Tucker would be my “good prospect most likely to be traded” for this year.

If only I could hit: I follow the Yankees so this may be true of other teams as well, but I’ve been struck at how well the AAA players employed this year in stints of varying length with NY have played. It made me wonder what percentage of Triple A players might be able to carve out a career if luck intervened, but otherwise might never get to the show. Do you have a sense of this? Thanks!
Keith Law: My inference, without hard evidence, is that the Yankees are doing something differently in evaluating players to bring in as AAA filler, and finding guys whom they can help make adjustments who can be productive essentially for free.

Scott: Miss you on Twitter but hope it’s helping your mental health. I was surprised to hear your personal news also but glad that is going well for you.
Keith Law: Thank you. I miss Twitter’s ability to catch me up on news quickly, but given the continued trash fire in my replies in my daily glances at it, I’m not sorry I took it off my phone.

Ryan: What are your thoughts on Dylan Cease? Results at the big league level have not been great so far. Can he be a top of the rotation guy?
Keith Law: I don’t think he was ever a top of the rotation guy … when he was throwing super hard, he couldn’t stay healthy. I get questions like this a lot, but I wonder why it’s always about “ace” or “top of rotation?” If he’s an above-average starter, that’s a huge win for the team – those guys cost a mint in trade or free agency. And I think Cease can be that, given time.

Chris: Thanks for doing these chats. If the Red Sox are still a few games out of the wildcard race by the trade deadline, should they trade some of the players on the last year of their contracts or hope that things turnaround with their rotation and bullpen for the remainder of the season?
Keith Law: I don’t know if they could get any real value from trading the Porcello types; given their market & owner expectations, they should probably ride it out.

Michael: Should Cleveland trade Bauer? Will they?
Keith Law: Yes. I’m not sure, but I would certainly do so.

Zihuatanejo: Will all of Ruiz, Smith, and May to still be in the Dodgers organization on August 1?
Keith Law: My guess is no. Ruiz feels most likely to be traded with Smith ready now and Cartaya looking like a GUY.

Jack: Was there any indication Tatis was this good when the White Sox traded him? I saw him the other day and he’s electric.
Keith Law: I’ve had him highly ranked since the trade, and I know the Padres couldn’t believe their luck in getting him.

j: Thoughts on Anthony Seigler?
Keith Law: Three major injuries in 13 months, and he’ll finish this year with just 54 pro games since he signed. He has ability but he needs at bats he hasn’t getting, and catchers who get hurt a lot are worrisome propositions.

Deke: An interesting thing to ponder: At this point, would you say Trump’s presidency has been better than you expected, about as bad as you expected, or even worse than you expected?
Keith Law: Worse.

JAS: How good can Tarik Skubal be? He’s really pitched well the past few weeks, and he’s at AA and dominating. Is he a top 100 candidate?
Keith Law: He is a real prospect, but not likely to see my top 100.

Dan: Ok, notwithstanding that the Rays subs were (probably?) done legally and had no bearing on the outcome- how much more bungling from Angel Hernandez can MLB possibly tolerate at this point? Is the ump union that powerful to protect someone so utterly incompetent? In any event, I at least hope he is not allowed within 500 miles of a postseason venue this October after his debacle last October.
Keith Law: I only saw this after the fact, but the umpires’ lack of preparation really showed, and I agree it reflects poorly on Hernandez in an objective sense – yeah, we all pick on him, because we think he’s bad at his job, but this was an actual failure.

Jay: Do the Yanks have enough to land Thor? I assume any package would have to center around Garcia.
Keith Law: Buster said to me on the BBTN podcast this morning that he can’t imagine the Wilpons trading Thor to the Bronx and risking having him turn into an ace. I agree. I mean, we know the Wilpons aren’t rational.

Adam: Please tell me it’s okay to buy in to Manuel Margot’s last 40 game sample size.
Keith Law: He’s always had a good eye and high contact rates; now he seems to be starting to turn more contact into times on base. I’m in.

Frank: If you are the Giants please tell me the right move is still to sell the desirable pieces and not make a push for a one game playoff. Logic would seem to say they are most likely more of the team of the first 80 games than the team of the last 20.
Keith Law: Absolutely. Outscored on the year, bunch of overperformers on the roster.

Gloria: How are the Dems so bad at this? They have literal sound bites of Mueller essentially calling Trump an un-indicted felon, plainly stating he obstructed justice and all the talk is on optics? And why did nobody ask him about Cohen and if Trump directed that behavior?
Keith Law: The leadership is bad at this, and when younger Democrats disagree with the “shoot self in foot” strategy, the leadership goes after the dissidents. The Keystone Kops were better at catching the bad guys.

ben: You flagged Leonardo Rodriguez as a sleeper a couple years ago. He’s had a great start in Aberdeen this year but is a little old for the level. Is he still a legit prospect worth watching?
Keith Law: I saw him again last night – he hasn’t progressed.

Mike: Kiriloff has had a few injuries this year, but all in all hasn’t been as dominant in 2019 even when healthy. Any cause for concern?
Keith Law: Zero cause. Still a star.
Keith Law: And his injury this year was to his wrist (two IL stints), which you would expect to sap some of his power and contact quality. So saying he’s “had a few injuries” (it was one injury, and one that affects hitter performance even after it heals) isn’t really fair to him.

Wander: What could the Mets get for Dom Smith— a prospect in the top 150ish? Rockies seem like a fit but I cant think of a player coming back who’d make sense, Freeland maybe?
Keith Law: I think he’s worth more than that although the Mets haven’t done much to support his value.

Adam: So, umm, the first unanimous baseball HOF’er is an unabashed Trump supporter? That’s…something.
Keith Law: I was pondering this – if the news, not just his Trump support but his alignment with an openly anti-Semitic evangelical pastor, had come out before the vote, would he not have been unanimous? I can’t say it would have stopped me from voting for him, but I think it would have stopped someone.

Billy Pilgrim: Should the Tigers call Rodgers up?s The guys they’re playing at catcher seem to lack a pulse.
Keith Law: He’s not the solution either.

Adam: How arrogant are front offices about their prospect development processes? When a struggling player leaves their system and succeeds (like Alex Dickerson), then turns around and “criticizes” the coaching of their prior team, do the teams re-evaluate their process or shrug such things off as an anomaly?
Keith Law: Depends on the people, right? Some folks take the criticism personally, some see it as a chance to improve. I’m not comfortable generalizing here.

Matt : If you are the GM of a team like the Giants or As who have real shots at the wild card but a low chance at a deep playoff run how would you handle the trade deadline? A shot at a play in game isn’t worth getting value on tradeable pieces, right?
Keith Law: I’d never give up prospects if I didn’t have a shot to win the division. More so for the Giants, who I think are a mirage.

Amir: As an Afghan American who still has family living in Kabul, hearing the President muse about wiping out 10 million Afghans is both frightening and infuriating. It also makes me all the more frustrated that Dem leadership refuses to start impeachment hearings; It’s like they don’t have the same sense of urgency as their constituents. Just needed to get that out.
Keith Law: It is maddening. A party that once had many policy positions I supported doesn’t give a shit about the country or the planet as long as they get conservative judges and tax cuts.

Gloria: Alzolay is hurt. Seems to be done for the year
Keith Law: Ah sorry, I missed that, thought he was supposed to return.

Pat D: Would you consider trading Garcia as part of a package for any of Stroman, Syndergaard or Bumgarner, even though the latter two are highly unlikely to end up in the Bronx for differing reasons?
Keith Law: I think they’d have to, but I’d probably only include him for Stroman, maybe Thor, not Bumgarner.
Keith Law: My guess is the Yanks trade from their next tier of pitching prospects – guys like Gil, Gomez, Contreras, etc.

Mike: Lewis Thorpe of the Twins intrigues me, he’s got pretty nice k:bb numbers in the minors. Can he be a mid rotation guy, or is he more back end rotation?
Keith Law: More back end, but I like him and root for him to give us an Australian player with enough impact to help grow the game.

Todd: Does Luis Gil have Deivi Garcia type upside?
Keith Law: You couldn’t pick two more different players. Both prospects, but Gil is at least five inches taller, with more velocity and spin, more physical, without Deivi’s deception or mix of offspeed.

Trace: Were/Are you friends with Jonah Keri and what are your thoughts on that situation? It seems as if the baseball community has been quiet about that
Keith Law: I knew him but was not friends with him. I don’t agree the baseball community has been quiet – I’ve seen criticism all over. Julie DiCaro weighed in pretty early. Craig Calcaterra did. Jay Jaffe commented. Every site that used him cut ties right away.

danny: Did I hear you actually gag when Buster said Angel Hernandez’s name on the podcast today?
Keith Law: I laughed.

Big Fan: Is there any merit to Austin Riley going back down to AAA, or does he need to be at the MLB to figure out the adjustments he needs to make?
Keith Law: I think he’ll just go beat up AAA pitchers again.

Sage: Addison Russell days as a Major League Cub over?
Keith Law: Fine with me!

GJ: Went to Pizzeria Bianco this week before the O’s/Diamondbacks game based on your recommendation. Needless to say it was awesome! Do you believe in the resurgence of Corey Sedlock? Former first rounder finally healthy and pitching well. Future starter or bullpen piece?
Keith Law: Based on what I saw I think a bullpen piece.

Nathan : Not sure you’re a Sinclair Lewis fan but have you read Babbitt? Seems like a book due for a revival
Keith Law: I’ve only read Arrowsmith and It Can’t Happen Here, the review of which I boosted in March of 2016 when it appeared that it could indeed.

Mark: Would Eloy’s injury, though not as bad as originally feared, give you concern to move him to 1B/DH? Seems like the White Sox have a lot of prospects geared towards that position, albeit not as talented a hitter as Eloy.
Keith Law: Yes, and yes. But you probably have to leave him in RF and hope he can be a 45 defender there because they’ll have too many 1b/dh types unless they can convert someone else (e.g., Vaughn to 3b).

Lark11: Hey Keith, Any reason for concern on Reds Taylor Trammell? His control over the strike zone and athleticism still stand out, but he’s struggled at double-A. Just the usual struggles/adjustments to a higher level of competition? Or, cause for concern? Thanks!
Keith Law: No concern.

Jay: “I can’t tell you where I’ll be writing in 2020” – meaning, you know but can’t say, or you legitimately don’t know?
Keith Law: Meaning I don’t know.

Zihuatanejo: “Hey Keith, it’s Twitter. The Worst People In The World send their regards.”
Keith Law: Exactly.

JC: I assume Kristian Robinson is one of the youngest players in the NWL and he is destroying the ball right now. Any chance he jumps Chisholm for you next update?
Keith Law: No chance. Good prospect, though.

Gus: How concerning is Duplantier’s shoulder injury?
Keith Law: Very, since he’s had it before (sophomore year at Wayne Graham’s School of Arm Shredding).

Jerry: It was only a couple of years ago that Frances Martes was a highly ranked prospect. After TJ, suspension, and now visa problems, is there any reason for optimism that he’ll ever be a contributor to the MLB club?
Keith Law: Contributor, sure. Star, unlikely.

Curt: Thoughts or rumblings on Touki Toussaint? Seemed to be developing into an ace the last couple years but seems like that has stalled and now he’s destined to the bullpen. Only 23 still, but have the Braves mis-managed him?
Keith Law: I don’t think they’ve mismanaged him, but they have a lot of starter candidates and can’t give him starts he hasn’t earned (yet) as they try to win. I think he’d be a very valuable trade piece, though – how can you not love the combination of stuff, athleticism, youth, and makeup?

Ryan R: Is Griffin Roberts already a wasted pick? Many reports on him when he was drafted suggested he was one of the most MLB ready players in the draft but his current stat line suggests he is struggling mightily at A+ despite being old for the level. What’s the deal with Roberts?
Keith Law: He was never going to be a starter, and they should just put him in the pen.

Eric: Do you listen to music on vinyl at all?
Keith Law: Never.

Ridley: We miss you on Twitter but don’t blame you at all. Are you going to use any other platform to fill the void, or are you thinking of just reducing the social media time/effort/exposure?
Keith Law: Still on Facebook, IG, the dish, here. Plenty of places to find me, but where I have a bit more control over the conversation and can rid the place of any vermin who show up.

Dan: Has Deivy Grullon improved his stock or is his ceiling still a No. 2 catcher in the Majors?
Keith Law: I’m not sure why he would have improved his stock at all.

Matt: The Angels have inched their way back into the race but have almost no pitching left. What would you do in their spot?
Keith Law: At least explore trading for one. Adell off limits, make anyone else potentially available.

Eric: Do you have a garden at home? We’re about to build ours out (we currently have guava, lime, blood orange and plum trees, and passion fruit vine) to include herbs and veggies so our kids can learn where their food comes from. What are some of your garden essentials?
Keith Law: I do, mostly tomatoes and herbs right now, although I try to grow peas every spring (rabbits got ’em this year) and typically grow arugula and other leafy greens.

Matt: Reynaldo Lopez just threw his third strong start after the ASB, is his best long-term role still likely a high leverage reliever, or is he good enough to project as a quality back-end starter going forward?
Keith Law: Still a future reliever for me. And that last start came against one of the worst teams in baseball.

Jason: If Riley isn’t quite ready to hit consistently, and the alternative option is Inciarte in center, does it make sense for Atlanta to bring up Pache now? Or is he just not ready with the bat?
Keith Law: Love Pache, obviously, glove was ready yesterday, I think he’d post a .280 OBP right now.

John Zirinsky: Keith: Since the SP market is pretty thin, if you’re the Yankees do you cross your fingers, hope Severino returns and maybe get some additional bullpen help, or say “screw it” and overpay for a Stroman since you have a chance to win it all this year?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t cross my fingers on Severino … he’s been out so long, I’m not sure you can bet on him starting.

Todd: Where do you expect Spencer Howard to fall in next year’s prospect ranking if he stays healthy the rest of the year?
Keith Law: Around the same range he was at last winter, I think. Missing time with shoulder soreness is a concern.

Jason: Not too familiar with Yordan Alvarez’s journey to the bigs, but how do the Dodgers trade a guy like him for a middle reliever?
Keith Law: I think they got him in, saw the body & lack of athleticism, and had some quick buyer’s remorse (they had just signed him) that undervalued him.

Eric: I never thought I’d see a player as ridiculous as 2000s cartoon-numbers Bonds, but, man, Trout is there. He’s gonna end up the greatest player ever, isn’t he?
Keith Law: I think so, or at least good enough that we can have a rational debate about it.

Andres: Hey Klaw, this might be nuts to suggest. But, I think Smith has a brighter future than Pete Alonso. Would it be better for the Mets to explore an Alonso trade and play Smith in the future? I think Alonso, with the numbers and years of control, would fetch a nice amount.
Keith Law: I like Smith a ton as well, but I can’t see them considering trading Alonso given his hot start, 5+ years of control remaining, and popularity.

Billy: Are Adam Duvall or Travis Demeritte worth anything as trade fodder, or is it the juiced AAA ball?
Keith Law: I tried to buy into Demeritte when he was first traded, but he hit .222/.316/.416 while repeating AA last year, and when a guy does that, then goes to the juiced ball and goes bananas, I’m skeptical. I haven’t heard any good reason to think he’s a different player. (He has always had great bat speed & power, though. That’s real.)

Greg: The Indians would be crazy not to trade Bauer right? But could they at least wait- should they wait- until after the season?
Keith Law: Yes, if they don’t like the offers they’re getting now they could wait, but I don’t think they want to wait past this winter, as his value will drop … he’s had all of one good season, and he’s otherwise been really inconsistent.

Frank: Could Dodgers get Edwin Diaz for a deal around Keibert Ruiz? I’d do that in a second, but sounds like the Mets are looking for something like May and Ruiz (maybe we could get Wheeler + Diaz in a deal like that?)
Keith Law: Yes, I think that deal has potential – and Buster essentially said the same on the podcast today. He and Passan are more in tune with what’s likely than I am.

JAS: Is Bryan Mata the next great Red Sox starting pitcher? They haven’t developed a homegrown starter in a long time, but does he have a chance to break through? He’s 20 at AA and holding his own, with increased velocity this year…
Keith Law: Velocity was good last year too; it’s a tough delivery for a starter though.

Manny: What do you think about all the Royals college guys who have come through Wilmington? It looks like a pretty impressive group but how would you rank Lynch/Kowar/Singer/Bubic/Bowlan/Cox? Seems like we have seen a lot of deviation in how analyst have ranked them.
Keith Law: Lynch was the one sure starter (if healthy) of the group for me. Bubic second most likely to start. Kowar > Singer for me. The hitters, though … they’ve struggled a lot.

Nick: Hey KLaw, I really appreciate the chats, I read every single one! I know comps aren’t in for minor leaguers anymore. It’s a high bar, but I see a little Tim Lincecum in Deivi Garcia in terms of stuff and mechanics. Am I just a dreaming Yankees fan? Thanks again!
Keith Law: I don’t see it, sorry. Deliveries aren’t similar, Lincecum threw harder with a better CB (more vertical, too), Deivi has better deception and better SL/CH than Lincecum did at this age.

Pat D: Leaving aside the question of whether they SHOULD get in, do you think Vizquel and Yadier WILL one day get in? I’m assuming you’re a no vote on both.
Keith Law: I’m a no on both. Molina might, Vizquel unlikely.

Pete: If you run the Indians and, as you say, try to trade Bauer, how do you sell that to the fanbase that you’re trading one of your top pitchers in the middle of a playoff race?
Keith Law: He’s a pitcher; is he a top pitcher? A 4.18 FIP, leading the league in walks. He’s valuable because he takes the ball every fifth day, not because he’s an elite performer, and we haven’t even discussed what you’re getting off the field.

JR: Will Parker Meadows be as good as his brother?
Keith Law: I don’t think so given the hitch in his swing.

Matteo Salvini: We await your arrival to our paradise Mr Law. We love all immigrants. About my Mets: Have you seen SWR at all this season, enough progress to reach top 100 status?
Keith Law: No, reports are great, but I haven’t gotten to see Columbia yet. They’re on my hope-to-see list for August. Charleston & Greenville are up here this weekend, so I’ll see them.

Yanns: RE: Rivera, I’m sure politics changed some votes for Schilling so I definitely could see it having an impact for Rivera.
Keith Law: Schilling made comments on his beliefs; Rivera simply had those beliefs. And Schilling’s comments were virulent – he reposted a meme about killing journalists, and openly attacked Muslims and transgender people.

Keith: Do you see Luis Robert more like Starling Marte or Lewis Brinson?
Keith Law: I see him go 0-fer every time I’m there, so I’m the wrong person to ask. (Probably Marte. Maybe more K%.)
Keith Law: OK, gotta run, radio hit & digital video thing coming up shortly here. Thanks for all the questions. I may not chat next week depending on whether I go to Bristol at all for the deadline, but then would return to chat on the 8th, after Gen Con. Have a safe weekend.

My latest review for PasteMagazine covers Century A New World, the last game in the Century trilogy (Spice Road, Eastern Wonders).

Keith Law: This can’t go on – I must inform the Law. Oh, that’s me. Klawchat.

Craig: Does Corbin Burnes still have a lot of trade value? If you were a seller (i.e. Toronto, Texas, Detroit), would you be willing to accept him as the centerpiece for a Stroman/Minor/Boyd deal?
Keith Law: He was just placed on the IL with a shoulder injury, so I think his value right now is zero until he shows he’s healthy.

Rob: What are your thoughts on Robel Garcia? His path the MLB is quite interesting. Do you thinkk he’s an everyday 2B?
Keith Law: His path is unprecedented. I would guess his high strikeout rate will keep him from being an average regular, but I don’t feel very strongly about that (since we have no history with him), and I’d like to see him prove me wrong.

Matt: Hi Keith, is Nick Economos a legit prospect? He’s been solid in two levels of A-ball this seaon.
Keith Law: He’s also 24 years old and should be at least in double-A. We’ll see if/when he gets there.

Oscar Mercado: Am I an above-average regular / occasional All-Star? Or am I playing a little above my head right now?
Keith Law: You’re not playing above your head, but I don’t think you’re playing at an above-average level yet. I wish Cleveland would give Mercado the CF job full-time; he’s best there of all three positions and his bat there could make him an above-average regular in time.

Inky Dink: Brandon Sproat was the highest draft pick not to sign — did the Rangers screw this up or do you think the player changed his mind (which I’m not criticizing him for if he did — that’s his right)
Keith Law: I don’t know the details and don’t want to speculate, since he is going to college and I don’t want to give anyone cause to question his eligibility.

BushThrushRush: Joe Palumbo has struggled in his brief major league auditions this year. Have you dropped him from his just outside the top 100 status that he held pre-season?
Keith Law: No, that’s not how this works. If anything, he’s moved on to the back of the top 100.

addoeh: Were you able to try any new eats in Cleveland for the Futures Game, despite your illness?
Keith Law: Yes, but I realized afterwards everything tasted flat to me because I was sick. I went to Greenhouse Tavern (best place I ate), Mabel’s, Barrio (worst), Spice Kitchen. Pour Coffee was excellent too. And there’s an ice cream sandwich place right downtown – Cathy’s? – that was outstanding. THAT I could taste.

Rando : I know you’ve said before that you weren’t interested in Game of Thrones but can you just reaffirm that a show that uses the murdering of children and rape as a plot device isn’t interesting or edgy.
Keith Law: That is partly my view, at least. It deters me from watching.

Alex: Re: Cashner trade– Os get 2 DSL guys with decent stats. Do you think that Elias or K Perez targeted these specific guys (i.e., we wanted them while we were at Houston/Cleveland) and/or they figured 2 lottery tickets had higher upside (but greater risk) than an A/AA prospect (see what Royals got for Homer Bailey). Thanks
Keith Law: I’m sure it’s the former.

xxxYYY: How did we get to a point where “socialism” is being defined in this country as things like “public schools” and “universal health care,” rather than “government ownership and management of businesses” and “centralized planning”?
Keith Law: This has been true to some degree since at least the 1980s, when Republicans used “socialism” against Mike Dukakis in the ’88 election. Economics education in this country is bad, so the average American doesn’t know what the term means – I think very few people truly understand what socialism the economic system entails, because how would they learn it if it’s not taught in school and politicians use it incorrectly all the time?

Herten for Sherten: Sherten Apostel was just promoted to high-A despite middling numbers in the Sally League. Is this the Rangers rushing another guy who should be held back?
Keith Law: Uh, no. He slugged .470 in low-A.

Zach: If you’re Atlanta, would you have any prospects that are off-limits in trade talks (Anderson, Pache for example)?
Keith Law: Pache would be untouchable for me.

Salty: Would you start playing Gavin Lux at 2B in anticipation of a mid/late August promotion, or would you let him finish out the year in AAA at SS, then give him some reps at 2B at AFL and/or spring training?
Keith Law: I would only do this if the plan was to play Lux regularly at 2b in September and then have him stay there next spring. AFL starts too early this year so it screws up any plans to have such a player in the majors in September (opening day is 9/17, I think, so dumb).

Christopher: sigh, should the Mets just trade everyone?
Keith Law: I’d say yes, but do you want the guy who traded Kelenic/Dunn for Cano/Diaz really overseeing the fire sale?

Brandon J: Hey Keith, Josiah Gray recently got promoted to AA and has had a phenomenal year, do you think this is a sign of things to come and would he be approaching your top 100?
Keith Law: He shouldn’t have been in low-A to start the year. Double-A is a much better test for him.

Christopher: If I don’t agree with our Dear Leader have I passed the statute of limitations where I can’t be sent back? I think my ancestors on both sides have been around for a few generations. I’m safe, right?
Keith Law: I’m only a second-generation American if you go through my maternal grandfather. I assume i’ll be deported to Italy shortly, which … okay, that might be okay.

Kevin: Think a team gives into Tigers high demand for Matt Boyd? Or do Tigers blink and lower asking price a bit? Or neither?
Keith Law: Probably will have to lower the price because there seem to be a few other SP on the market right now. But I’d be inclined to take the best offer now rather than hold him (assuming they get an offer worth considering … that assumption is always built in) to the winter and risk injury.

Ryan (NY): KLaw, thanks for the chat! As a Mets’ fan, trying to keep the faith. Looking to next year, is it possible that Rosario could transition to CF with Gimenez or Guillorme taking over at SS? I want to believe he could stay at SS but it seems that the instincts are lacking there. Additionally, could Kay and/or Peterson slot into next year’s rotation with Vargas, Wheeler probably gone? There seems to be talent in A Ball, so trying to be patient until 2021-2022.
Keith Law: Mauricio is the long term SS there, so they could slot in Guillorme for his defense, taking the offensive hit, and moving Rosario to CF where they’ve had a defensive black hole since Lagares got hurt. That said, who’s the last Mets player to actually get better on defense in the majors?

Aaron C.: Do you do any in-person scouting for the short-season leagues and/or the 2019 draft class or are you off the road until Arizona in October?
Keith Law: Yes, I was actually in Aberdeen last night but got rained out. Will try again next week, by which point Rutschman should be there.

Steve: Does Wander Franco stay at shortstop, or will he end up at 3rd or 2nd?
Keith Law: 50/50 he stays at short.

Andrew: Would you evaluate pitchers at AA or below differently with the new ball implemented in AAA?
Keith Law: I’m probably going to skip AAA entirely this year.
Keith Law: There’s no point – you can’t evaluate players in that environment, with more AAA homers hit by the All-Star Break this year than there were in AAA in *all* of 2018 – and it’s just shitty baseball now.

Yuri: Even though none of them made your top-50, fair to say that this is the most excited Giants’ fans should be about their system in a while? Bart, Ramos, Luciano, Canario, Bishop is probably more position player pure talent than they’ve had in a loooong time.
Keith Law: That’s probably fair. Best position player crop since the Posey/Crawford years.

Aaron C.: You: “If Nick Allen (current OBP: .363) can get on base, the A’s might have something.” I know you’re waiting until next year (AA) to see if it’s real, but I can only save this seat on the bandwagon for a little while longer, Klaw.
Keith Law: I’m in. Can really play short and he’s also making a good bit more hard contact than scouts in general expected (given his size).

Derek: If your the Pirates, what kind of return are you holding out for with Vazquez?
Keith Law: I read they wanted two of the Dodgers’ top four prospects, which is entirely their right to demand, but there is no way on earth I’m giving that up (two top 50 overall prospects?) for any closer. As for what I’m holding out for, it’s really about getting the best offer you can and taking it, since relievers go poof! all the time.

Ker Pal: Vlad’s hitting a whole bunch of ground balls. I know he’s 20. No real cause for concern…is there?
Keith Law: No.

Larry: When O’Neil Cruz makes his MLB debut, it will be at what position?
Keith Law: Third base, or the outfield.

Kyle KS: What happened to keeping one foot in the box for hitters from a few years ago? It’s not a huge time saver but it did seem to help the feel of pace of play.
Keith Law: Never truly enforced in my experience.

Leroy : Does James Marvel have any big league potential?
Keith Law: Possibly. Not a high likelihood.

Kevin: Is this what you expected from Devers, or do you think there is still a lot of room for growth for the 22 year old?
Keith Law: This is what I expected, but I think he’ll grow into even more power.

Joe B: How did Razza match up against the other places you’ve been to?
Keith Law: It’s top 20 for me for sure, bordering on top 10. I will probably update that ranking this winter – I’ve been to at least eight places worthy of adding (Razza, Pequod, Backspace, Bruno, 2 Amy’s, Pizza Rock, Settebello, Apizza Scholls) and am hoping to hit Beddia in the fall.

JP: why wasn’t Luciano on the top 50? doesn’t he have as much upside as anyone in the minors?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with the upside claim, but more importantly, the top 50 is not strictly a list of the players with the most upside. He’s a good prospect; he’s not top 50 good yet.

Jake: Thanks as always for the chat! Who do you believe has the higher ceiling between Kowar and Lynch and who has the higher probability of reaching it?
Keith Law: Lynch to both, assuming he’s healthy.

Jason: What’s keston Hiuras ceiling?
Keith Law: Above-average regular, bordering on star because he hits for high average, held back by defense.

Zihuatanejo: Hi Keith — IIRC you’ve mentioned that you rarely or never drink alcohol. Any beverage recommendations for the newly sober who are accustomed to wine and such with their meals?
Keith Law: That’s not accurate – I’m a moderate drinker – but when I don’t want to drink, I’ll do soda water with lime, or soda water with bitters (“bits and bubs”).

Pedro: How good can Jake Fraley be?
Keith Law: Extra OF for me.

Brandon Warne: Fast forward one year — Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff have hypothetically exhausted their prospect status.

Who do you think would be No. 1 on your Twins prospect list?
Keith Law: Balazovic, probably. Cavaco and Larnach would be possibilities; need to see Larnach show some power now that he’s out of the FSL.

JR: Tarik Skubal having a great year. Is he apart of the future for the Tigers?
Keith Law: Yes, but in what role I don’t know yet.

Brendan: If you’re Neal Huntington – full on rebuild, or sell off veteran pieces? I think a lot of Pirate fans feel like we’re stuck in 78-83 win purgatory.
Keith Law: Seemed like they were trying to win this year and they’re not exactly out of it, but maybe not quite good enough to make it? Hard to advocate selling given that they’re only 6 out in the loss column but that is what I would do in their situation.

Rybo: Longtime fan, Keith. Just wanted to say thank you for your recommendation of “The Happiest Baby on the Block” – it’s been an absolute game changer for my wife and I with our newborn
Keith Law: That’s great to hear – I’m glad you found it as useful as I did.

Pat: Thoughts on Alex Wells? I know I’m scouting the stat line, but he just keeps on keeping on. 1.95 ERA, 2.63 FIP at AA. Can a guy with that limited velocity be a GUY?
Keith Law: I think there’s a chance he’s a back-end starter – a very small chance, but I wouldn’t say zero.

Brandon Warne: With regards to depression/anxiety — how much tweaking did your prescriptions need before you felt “normal” again. Did you ever?
Keith Law: Normal is always a relative term to me. I felt different on each medication I tried, and differently on 10 mg of escitalopram (current dose) vs 20 mg (previous dose, stronger benefit, worse side effects). It is worth tweaking the meds and doses to find a combination that makes you feel the best you can.

Drew: Is Michael Baumann a legit prospect, or was his no-no in Bowie a fluke?
Keith Law: Relief prospect.

Dylan Carlson: I had a big game last night, 2 HR, what do you think my future is? (Ceiling, eta, comparison)
Keith Law: See my top 50 from last week.

Epsthoyer: Thanks for doing this, Klaw. Long time first time.. Will Roederer & Davis be 2/3 of our OF in 2021?
Keith Law: I would guess that if both continue to develop one ends up traded for major-league help before then.

Realist: % Chance a Dem or Reporter is seriously injured in the lead up to the election this time around because of Trump’s rhetoric?
Keith Law: Over 50%.

Noah: Have you been to Yountville for the restaurants and wine? Any favorites (other than French laundry)
Keith Law: Never. I think there’s a pizza place out there on my to-try list too.

Micah: Knowing the year to year volatility of relievers, would you ever trade a top prospect for said reliever?
Keith Law: Nope.

Lyle: Cal Raleigh! How fast can he move up the system?
Keith Law: Should spend the rest of this year in AA. Did okay in high-A, but he’s a D1 product and he should have done well there.

Chris: Syndergaard and Wheeler for Patino, Morejon, Baez, Weathers. Who says no?
Keith Law: The Padres, with howls of derisive laughter.

Brian: You didn’t seem particularly impressed with Mickey Moniak. And yet, in May he hit .290 with a .755 OPS, in June it was .294 w/an .872 OPS and a big spike in walks & in July it’s been .320 with an .850 OPS. That sounds a lot like the Steve Finley type player discussed when the Phillies drafted him. What are you seeing and hearing from scouts that the stat line isn’t showing?
Keith Law: OPS sucks for individual players, more so for trying to evaluate prospects. It’s not a good swing at all, not going to generate power, and his approach isn’t good. He’s also probably not a CF long term.

Johnny: Which catcher has a better chance of being an all-star Sean Murphy or Keibert Ruiz?
Keith Law: Keibert.

Danny: Can Deivi Garcia be an option for the Yankees in September or the playoffs? Either as a starter or out of the pen?
Keith Law: Yes. Either but not sure I’d push him into a playoff rotation right out of AAA.

Chris: Logan Gilbert thoughts?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter? Sounds like he’s got all his 2017 velocity back and the other elements were already in place.

Chris: Justice Sheffield struggled with control and the ball in triple A and has since crushed double A. He’s only 23. Why did he fall in the rankings if triple A performance is so unscoutable for pitchers?
Keith Law: Because his velocity dropped.

Aaron: Hi Keith, thanks for sharing your views on health and science in addition to your baseball opinions. My 12 year old daughter suffers from anxiety. Her mom (my ex wife) strongly believe that abstinence from gluten and sugars are scientifically shown to lower anxiety. One can find studies & ‘proofs’ to pretty much anything on the internet. I have no idea how to
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s pseudoscience. There’s no effect, and your daughter is just going to be miserable because she can’t have Oreos. Eat the sugar and the flour and use actual, evidence-based treatments, like meditation, medication, exercise, and therapy.

Financial Flexibility: What should the Braves do with Austin Riley the next 2.5 months? He’s slumped terribly since his hot start, but sending him to AAA seems silly. Do you just keep sending him back out there to LF everyday or put him in some sort of platoon/rotation with Ender Inciarte?
Keith Law: If he’s up, he plays. Platooning him is probably the worst idea (he’d never get at bats, and thus have little chance to develop).

Rob: You mentioned last week that the new baseball “may” be affecting the quality of Syndergaard’s off speed stuff. Do you think this may be a factor in Aaron Sanchez’ struggles as well? (along with the tighter seams possibly affecting his finger)
Keith Law: Yes, plausible.

J.T.: Are you buying Barreto as a regular 2b?
Keith Law: No.

Aiden: What do you think about all the people complaining that the left “demonizes” Trump supporters and then the reality that they chant things like “send her back” at his rallies?
Keith Law: I was going to say that Trump supporters demonize themselves with their words and actions (and hats).

Brian: Can you clarify something in your top 50 about Spencer Howard: you mentioned the shoulder injury, but he’s been dynamite since he came back. Just too much risk for reinjury with a shoulder?
Keith Law: It’s two starts. (One came after the top 50 was posted.) Shoulder injuries are much worse for a player’s value than elbow.

Los Hermanos Waner: You could eat all the oreos you want (for free) with no negative effects for the rest of your life OR wipe the memory of the last 2 seasons of Orioles baseball from the collective minds of the people of Baltimore. Would you be so altruistic?
Keith Law: LOL no

Chris: Have you had a chance to scout julio Rodriguez. He’s fun
Keith Law: Unfortunately he was hurt when WV came to Lakewood. Been good since he came back.

Benji: Do you think there’s any way the Rays would offer up both Sanchez & Brujan in a Boyd deal?
Keith Law: Doubt it.

Rob: Chance Seth Beer makes the top 100 if he can play serviceable defense at first?
Keith Law: No shot. Platoon guy right now, until he shows he can hit LHB even passably.

Brett V: Any hope for Royals prospects Pratto or Matias or at this point do you start to write them off as ever developing into MLB regulars
Keith Law: I do not project either as a regular. I’m not sure Pratto is a big leaguer at the moment.

Steve: How did you maintain your reading habits/schedule with a newborn?
Keith Law: I read less that year than in any other year in the last ~15. It wasn’t until she started sleeping through the night that I got back to my regular reading habits (because I was sleeping more).

El Perezoso: Best pizza you’ve ever had?
Keith Law: Pizzeria Bianco in Arizona. Keste in NYC is second. Of course I’ve had great pizza around Italy in places I couldn’t name, too.

Jason: Is Brandon woodruff for real?
Keith Law: Yes.

The Sloth: How was the Phish show? Which night of Camden did you go to?
Keith Law: One and two (not three). Both were fun. Can’t say I knew more than 3-4 songs each night. It was the company that made it fun for me, though.

Alex: >OPS sucks for individual players
Pardon my ignorance but I hadn’t heard this before. What circumstances is OPS useful for then- just evaluating team performance, or entire careers vs. individual seasons?
Keith Law: OPS underweights OBP severely. Don’t use it for hitters. It correlates well with run-scoring at the team level, so it’s okay to use for that, I guess, although I find that a little unsatisfying anyway because I know it’s a kludge.

Mike: Why do people (including people in positions of real authority, like ahem….) insist on dismissing scientific evidence for things like climate change, vaccinations/autism, etc?
Keith Law: There’s a lot of psychological research on the subject. Cognitive dissonance is a powerful thing.

Adam: Another recent report has Allard at 91-93 again. Can you substantiate that?
Keith Law: No.

ugotwilcoxed: Thoughts on Jackson Rutledge? Seems these big kids need a lot of work to standardize their mechanics.
Keith Law: Yeah, his delivery needs work, for consistency and maybe for long-term health. I think he’ll need help throwing strikes the way he throws now.

Scott: Thanks for all your hard work and these chats! Now that Dom Smith is playing up to his potential, do you see any team giving the Mets close to what his value is? If not, how do they keep even one of his and JD Davis’ bats in the lineup without compounding their defensive problems?
Keith Law: I feel like Smith won’t return full value because teams know he’s blocked by Alonso (and Davis and McNeil to a lesser degree), and Smith hasn’t quite held his great start with inconsistent playing time, which may also hurt.

Beth: Mike Soroka or Chris Paddack long term
Keith Law: Paddack. Soroka has great shit but he’s had some real injury scares and I prefer Paddack’s delivery.

Joe: Keith, I live just outside of DC. What is the quality of baseball in the Cal Ripken league?
Keith Law: I’ve been to a game in that league, and it’s lower than the Cape or Team USA, but it was comparable to a decent college game. Definitely worth going just to watch.

Nate: You have always been skeptical of Madrigal’s ability to drive the ball enough to be an above average regular. Does his defense project plus to you to offset some of the value lost in lack of power?
Keith Law: No, it doesn’t.

Rob: Any chance for George Valera to make the top 100?
Keith Law: A full, healthy summer would make that possible.

Steve : Hi Keith, Joey Cantillo in San Diego is busting out, does he have a chance to be a GUY?
Keith Law: Big leaguer, yes, not sure he’s a GUY.

JG: An ESPN analyst “suggested” the Twins try to acquire Syndergaard and offered Lewis or Kirilloff and Graterol or Balazovic. Does that get it done and would you do it?
Keith Law: That’s a strange proposal because Lewis’s value is down a bit and Graterol’s been on the shelf with a shoulder injury for two months.

Kyle: Preference of region in Italy, north or south?
Keith Law: North, primarily for food, but really you could send me anywhere in Italy and I’d be happy.

Randy: How do you rate/rank a player like Brendan Rodgers following the season ending surgery?
Keith Law: No change unless someone tells me there’s a reason this injury/surgery might affect him long-term – for example, if he has to move to second base, as seems possible, that hurts his long-term outlook

Pete: Are you going to the Cape this year?
Keith Law: No. Under Armour for me, then lots of minor league scouting around here, then Gen Con.

Dr. Bob: Is there a concern about Vlad Jr.’s weight going forward? Guys like Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder didn’t age well, in part, because of their weight.
Keith Law: Yes. That was one of the reasons why I ranked him #2 behind Tatis Jr.

Steve: Kirsten Gillibrand has a “little girl” voice. Do you think such things matter in terms of elect-ability? How about height?
Keith Law: There is verified research that the timber of a candidate’s voice and a candidate’s height have a significant effect on their appeal to voters. Taller men are also more likely to believe in their own leadership abilities and to pursue such positions.

Rick: KLaw, you’ve spoken often about the insanely low wages paid to MiLB players (1st year players make a max monthly amount of $1,075) and how owners needed specific legislation passed which exempted minor league players from federal labor law. What do you think is the best way for the industry, and for the average fan to address this situation?
Keith Law: The best way was to call your representatives in Congress before the GOP tax law passed. I’m not sure there’s a good way for fans to express that interest now, at least not until the players themselves take action.

Brian: Thanks for the chat – really appreciate the time you dedicate to this. I’m always curious about player development. I think you’ve indicated (apologies if I’ve got it wrong) that Bichette can’t stay at shortstop. Why would the Jays keep developing him in Triple A at a position he won’t play in the majors? Wouldn’t it be better to get reps (lots of them) at 2B?
Keith Law: They think he can stay at shortstop. They also insisted Vlad Jr. could play third and Tellez could play first, so perhaps they skew in a different direction.

Matt: Is there any chance the White Sox will push Vaughn to High A before the end of the year? Low A doesn’t appear to be giving him much of a challenge thus far, and his bat has universally been praised as “advanced.”
Keith Law: Yes, they did so with Madrigal last year.

Gerald: Poorly phrased, in your years in baseball, is there one draft pick that caught your attention as player not worthy of the draft slot.
Keith Law: Hayden Simpson is the most obvious choice. Kevin Matthews comes to mind too.

Lee: Do you agree with Pelosi’s strategy of avoiding impeachment at all costs? I understand her thinking in that it will unify the GOP around Trump in an election season and I agree to an extent because it’s very important he’s out of office ASAP. But not impeaching him for political reasons sends a really horrible precedent for all future presidents. That you can commit as many crimes as you like as long as your party controls one house of congress. Dark times.
Keith Law: No, I would support impeachment, even knowing it will fail in the Senate.

JR: Riley Greene killing it thus far. When does he get called up to A ball?
Keith Law: That’s who I was trying to see last night. I’m guessing he starts next year in low-A. You want him to stay in one spot long enough to face a team or two twice, so maybe they adjust to him.

Sanjay: Are teams required to obtain MLB approval to install netting around the field of play or can they move forward on their own? If the latter, why haven’t more teams installed it already?
Keith Law: They either don’t need approval or MLB is granting it to everyone who asks, so in practical terms, they’re good to go.
Keith Law: Why not? Inertia, I guess?

Draftnik: Not going to argue with you about Moniak’s swing — I’m certainly no expert — but he has a wRC+ of 137 since May 1st. That’s over 250 plate appearances, and that is as a barely 21-year-old in AA. You don’t see him as a first-division regular in, say, 3 or 4 years?
Keith Law: No I don’t see him as that, and that’s still a small sample – and wRC+ is not useful for prospects. Chase Vallot had a 136 wRC+ in a full season in high-A as a 20-year-old, and he’s a non-prospect.
Keith Law: Stop scouting the stat line.

Robert: How excited should Padres fans be for Munoz? Can you reasonably project him to be a high leverage reliever or is the command and slider worrisome?
Keith Law: High-leverage reliever with high bust/blowout risk.

Mickey Callaway: I think you deserve a victory lap for Tatis over Vlad, but people praising you miss the point that the difference was one spot and both should be excellent.
Keith Law: The people who missed the point were those angry I had Tatis over Vlad in January. I never said Vlad wasn’t good.

Robert: At this point is Michael Gettys an org guy?
Keith Law: In pragmatic terms, no, he’ll probably get a cup of coffee, but I do not project him to have any positive major league value.

Aaron: If the Phillies set their defensive requirements at 3B at Maikel Franco, is Alec Bohm good enough to play 3B for them?
Keith Law: I made that argument with someone at the Futures Game – if you’re willing to tolerate Franco, you can tolerate Bohm, at least in the short term. And I think Bohm’s going to hit for more average at the very least.

Jason: An Atlanta beat writer has a top 4 he would make untouchable: Pache, Waters, Anderson, and Muller. Was Muller near your consideration for the top 50?
Keith Law: No, and I would only have Pache untouchable out of that group.

Brandon Warne: When is your next reason to visit Minneapolis?
Keith Law: Probably visiting friends rather than coming for any baseball reason.

Adam: Thoughts on Makhi Backstrom?
Keith Law: He was in my draft recap for Atlanta.

Randy: What is it you enjoy so much about Italy (haven’t been but my fathers side if from there)? Obviously the food. But, culture?
Keith Law: Culture, history, and most importantly their way of life.

Eric: Please end the chat on this: VACCINATE YOUR DAMN CHILDREN
Keith Law: You got it.
Keith Law: Thanks as always for all the questions. I’ll be back next week for a chat, and then probably skipping the following week between the trade deadline and Gen Con. I’ll be at Under Armour on Monday, barring another family emergency (!), and will have a writeup afterwards.

Starting at 1 pm. My ranking of the top 50 prospects in baseball is now up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: I try to hear the music but I’m always losing time. Klawchat.

Greg P: Loved the Mid-Season 50 and I DID read the intro. I already knew you hated my team. Is service time really the only thing keeping Bichette in the minors?
Keith Law: Thank you. I don’t know that for a fact, but I don’t see any good reason he’s not in the majors; he’s better than the team’s current options at SS and 2b.

Trevor: KLaw – Missed the chat 2 weeks ago but wanted to mention the #SmartBaseball move from Michigan’s coach to bat the previous day’s SP 9th as a DH then pinch hit for him with the batter of his choice based on the situation. I don’t ever recall an AL team trying this
Keith Law: I missed that entirely. I like the idea.

barbeach: No question today. Just thank you so much for the chats and the content–so awesome.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. I’m just relieved I got the top 50 out given that my fever hit 101.3 *again* yesterday. (I think it’s gone now.)

Greg P: As others have said before, you are the only reason I keep ESPN+ and if you leave, I leave. So, is Lou Bob (I love that nickname you gave him) going to get to Chicago this season?
Keith Law: Credit to Eric Longenhagen for the nickname. I think he will, although I am not basing that on anything from the team.

Nick: Can Alec Bohm potentially play corner outfield at all?
Keith Law: I highly doubt this.

Dana: Do you think the Yanks should bring up Deivi in September/playoffs and use him out of the bullpen?
Keith Law: I think he could help them, but don’t think that he needs to be recalled this year to keep developing.

Brian: Gurriel Jr. looks real (and even decent in left). Biggio seems to be able to get on base, but strikes out a ton (and can’t play D). What do you make of the young Jays?
Keith Law: Don’t think Biggio is anything … he can walk, but that’s it. Gurriel’s power is out of nowhere (juiced ball?), and he has just average bat speed; he’s killed sliders this year, and I wonder if teams will start pitching him differently since he doesn’t handle velocity well. The young guy you didn’t mention, Vlad Jr., is still going to be a star IMO even with the slower-than-projected start.

Jeff: Do you have a sense of why the Padres haven’t called up Urias yet? Is he still working on things at AAA or are they just waiting to clear roster space (e.g., Kinsler)? Thanks
Keith Law: The only thing I’ve heard, and this was secondhand, was that there were concerns about his swing – he may be too power-happy, and of course AAA/El Paso isn’t exactly the place to un-learn that.

Jeff: Given the Padres current/future middle infield depth, do you think either or both of Abrams and Edwards wind up in center field?
Keith Law: Abrams could. Really depends on how he looks over the next ~year at short. He’s physically able to play it, but also looks like he hasn’t had much coaching there.

David: Could Ke’Bryan Hayes get called up in September or is early next summer more likely? What would you do?
Keith Law: Should be up in September.

Trav: It feels less and less likely each day that we make it through Nov 2020 with our democracy remotely intact. No question, I just want to remind everyone that we’re not powerless until Election Day.
Keith Law: Agreed. Never too early to get involved or make your voice heard.

Andy: The players are in serious trouble in the upcoming CBA. There’s a whole lot of things they should want: Higher minimum salary, sooner free agency, no draft, better minor league pay, more on the revenue split. But they have little to negotiate with. Do they have to agree to a salary cap to get any of those? They’ll obviously punt on the minor leaguers/draft issue to help the current MLBPA members more, but that may not be enough. The only actual threat the players have, to increase their revenue vis a vis the owners, is a strike, which will be tough to gather enough momentum for.
Keith Law: Your last sentence is the key. They can strike. They may need to do so simply to remind owners of their willingness to take collective action for the long-term good of the union even if it hurts them in the short term. And striking for a higher minimum salary and for a greater share of industry revenues to reach players is as good a reason as there will ever be.

Brian in Austin: Keith, has Sam Huff put himself in top 100 consideration with his play this season?
Keith Law: No.

Kevin : You are the Astros GM- trade Tucker for pitching? Is a Tucker- Boyd trade good for both teams?
Keith Law: I think it’s fair.

Key Flaw: After actually seeing Vlad Jr. play third base, it certainly feels like he is a DH (he defense was ugly in the O’s series). With the Jay’s out of contention, it makes sense to keep running him out there. But how long does that last, and is there any chance that he actually improves enough to play 1st base, let alone 3rd base?
Keith Law: I really think his body is going to make him a full-time DH.

addoeh: You’ve talked about both recently. Who has better frozen custard, Culver’s or shake shack? Valdosta had your go to Concrete Mixer order and it was pretty good.
Keith Law: I like Culver’s a lot, but Shake Shack seems to have a better product – I don’t know if they use better inputs, or if their blending/freezing process is faster and produces less overrun.

Todd: Where does Robert Puason fit into Oakland’s prospect rankings right now? And if he develops at a typical pace, how long until we start seeing him in Top 100 discussions?
Keith Law: Eyeballing, I would say in the 6-10 range. He’s a LONG way off from the top 100.

Liam: About where on your top 50 would Carter Kieboom rank if he were eligible?
Keith Law: He is eligible. He just doesn’t have that kind of upside.

Kevin : Liberatore in the rotation for Tampa by June 2020?
Keith Law: He’s in low-A now on a tight innings limit. Think about it: Even if he’s promoted today to high-A, the season ends in less than eight weeks, and he’s not going to double-A until at the absolute earliest next April. There’s just no way this happens.

Jesse B: Are Daniel Lynch and Spencer Howard both still in the 50-60 range? Both have looked good but they’ve both had minor injures. Seems like since they’re both 22, they could move quickly if the injures don’t crop up again.
Keith Law: Lynch would have made it had he come back from this shutdown, but Howard’s issue is his shoulder and he’s been out too long.

Brian: Hey Keith, thanks for the insightful new prospect list this morning. I was a little surprised Heliot Ramos did not make your list (19 years old and performing well in High A). Do you see him as a top 100 prospect at this point? What pd
Keith Law: Probably top 100.

Carl: Is Yordan Alvarez still not a top 100 prospect for you?
Keith Law: He’s ineligible, since he’s in the majors.

Eric: Thanks for the chat, and the top 50 Keith. I know you’ve been a big Isan Diaz fan in the past. What are your thoughts on him after his big season so far? Too much question with the AAA ball to get him in the 50?
Keith Law: It’s the lack of recent performance and then he goes to AAA and hits like this … so is this the real Diaz, the guy I hoped he’d become maybe three years ago when I ranked him pretty highly, or is this a juiced ball mirage? He’d have been in the next 50 guys if I’d ranked 100.

Eric: What are your thoughts on George Valera? Chance for big helium and a spot on the offseason list?
Keith Law: I hear good things but he has barely played around injuries.

Andy: With all the tributes to Jim Bouton, I am reminded that Bowie Kuhn is in the HOF, but Marvin Miller isn’t. That was my biggest takeaway from the book, having an asshole in your corner is really good for the labor side.
Keith Law: Yep. Bowie Kuhn did more to destroy the game of baseball than anybody since Judge Landis. The Hall honoring him is a sick joke.
Keith Law: Oh, and by the way, the BBWAA still hasn’t removed Jim Reeves – who wrote an article just two months ago defending a former player accused of serial sexual assault of a child – from the Spink ballot. What a fucking joke.

John : Are Brady Singer and Daniel Lynch Mlb starters? Add Jackson to make up KC rotation by 2021?
Keith Law: Lynch, if healthy, is a very good starter. Singer still looks like a reliever to me between the low slot and lack of a weapon for LHB. Kowar’s probability is somewhere in between the two. Bubic has a low ceiling but his starter odds are higher than Singer’s for me. Haven’t seen Bowlan here yet.

Rick: Afternoon KLaw, non-prospect question for you. Jake Arrieta seems to be quite the curmudgeon. His willingness to “be a team leader” in Philly (ie throw teammates and coaches under the bus when things don’t go his way while getting batters out at a replacement level clip) hasn’t exactly endeared him to either teammates or fans in the city. My question is was he always like this and just wasn’t held accountable in Chicago because he actually got batters out? His temper tantrum over an equally washed up Todd Frazier this past week was a bad look that didn’t portray either him or the organization in the best light.
Keith Law: I think your assessment is accurate – and I don’t see how MLB can avoid suspending him for threatening Frazier (“I’ll put a dent in his skull”). You can’t say that. You can think it, but MLB has to put the clamp down on public threats.

Pat D: Something that is annoying me mightily right now from the great cesspool that is NYC sports talk radio is the assumption that because Bumgarner was great in the postseason 5-7 years ago, he’ll be great in the postseason now, and for that reason alone, the Yankees should acquire him above anyone else. Is there any way you can even hope to present a counter-argument to someone entrenched with that belief?
Keith Law: No, probably because the basic premise is flawed, and you won’t convince someone one of their core beliefs is wrong.

Liam: What’s wrong with Thor?
Keith Law: Here’s one guess: this year’s super-smooth baseball is killing his slider.

Adam: At this point, would you rank Luciano, Ramos and Bishop ahead of Bart in the Giants farm system?
Keith Law: maybe, yes, no.

MJ: Fantastic work on the list, Keith. Any brief thoughts on Tyler Freeman? Seems to have some of the same plate/OBP skills as Alek Thomas and Nolan Jones, albeit without the athleticism of the former and potential pop of the latter.
Keith Law: He’s more in Thomas’ vein – and he’s pretty small, so his impact is really likely to be limited.
Keith Law: Nice player, though. Probably top 100, not close to this.

Denis: Surprised to see Gavin Lux at #5. If he switched to 2B is he still in the top 10? Also, if you are the Dodgers, who would you keep out of Smith/Ruiz? Does Ruiz still have the higher ceiling?
Keith Law: Ruiz has the higher ceiling but I’d keep Smith because he’s ready now. Not that either is a wrong choice. no reason to bump Lux from SS.

Ridley: Just to expand on Trav’s point, now that the Supreme Court has decided that gerrymandering is beyond their reach, there’s no better time to get involved at the local and state levels to ensure that independent commissions are in place to ensure that neither party abuses redistricting.
Keith Law: Right, because if your state is gerrymandered next time around, it may become de facto permanent.

SGz: What is the rationale for Jesus Luzardo missing the Top 50? Thanks.
Keith Law: What is the rationale for him making it? He’s 21 with a pretty lengthy list of injuries already.

Rick: As a constitutional conservative who didn’t vote in the 2016 presidential election (both candidates made me physically ill) I can’t see myself going to the ballot box in 2020 [again]. Trump is Trump, and the takeaway from the Dem debates so far was: keep southern border open for potential votes and cheap labor, expand healthcare to illegal aliens, pay off existing college debt, offer voting rights to felons and mid-teens. This is supposed to motivate me to vote? Still waiting for the voice of sanity to step up.
Keith Law: If that’s your takeaway from the debates, I think you went into the debates having already decided what you want to hear. A non-vote in 2020 is a vote for Trump. It means you’re fine with a status quo that is imprisoning children, mistreating them, exposing them to trauma, just because they’re brown. It means you’re cool with the world’s largest economy still pretending climate change isn’t real – even though huge portions of our economy and our country will be adversely affected by it. People will die needlessly because of this. It means you’re fine with a government that turns its back on democratic allies to support autocratic governments that assassinate political opponents, including journalists, because it suits short-term political aims. It means you’re fine with the kleptocracy that ignores rampant conflicts of interest, enriching officeholders across the government, because you just want low taxes and a ban on abortion. Yeah, you’re a Trump supporter. You just lack the courage to admit it.

John: Has Seth Beer impressed with his performance so far?
Keith Law: Really needs to show he can hit LHP.

mark: Dinelson Lamet recently returned to the Pads after TJS. What kind of upside does he have… #3 starter?
Keith Law: Two-pitch guy who’ll end up in the pen if that doesn’t change.

Paul: I’m sure some of my fellow Braves fans are bitching about Waters’ omission; already saw one person on Twitter. Not here to do that, but am curious what you think of him? BABIP is absurd (.457) with an alarming K-rate and not many walks. Something he can fix or overcome with the rest of his game? And likelihood of him doing that? Thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: Solid prospect but he’s a corner guy long term. The K rate isn’t alarming on its own, especially since he’s young for AA, but the combination of low walk rates his whole career and rising K rates is concerning. Again, like a lot of guys folks are asking about here, he’s a top 100 type, but this is just a 50, and that means I’m only ranking the best.

Justin: When players makes their major league debut why is the note that the player has been recalled by the team? Shouldn’t that be for players that were demoted and then brought back?
Keith Law: If a player is recalled, then he was demoted when he was optioned in spring training. When a player is recalled, it means he’s already on the 40-man; if he’s already on the 40-man, but was in the minors, then he was in major league spring training (the entire 40-man comes) and was sent to the minors on optional assignment before the spring ended. If the player isn’t on the 40-man, his contract is “purchased,” which means he’s added to the 40-man at the time he’s brought to the majors.

romorr: Hall and Rodriguez both have a reliever chance, Halls BB% is going the wrong way, and Rodriguez has funk in the delivery. But if you had to pick to stick in the rotation, would it be Rodriguez still?
Keith Law: It would not, and I think my ranking of them today and in the winter makes that clear.

addoeh: Two prospects from Wisconsin (Kelenic and Lux) in your top 8 and one from Chicago (Thomas) at 45 and I may have missed others from the Midwest. Along with Priester just being drafted in the 1st round, will the fear of prospects from cold states start to subside?
Keith Law: I don’t think it will, but I’m sort of okay with that. Some is just structural: we get fewer looks at high school players in cold climates. It’s also a reason for MLB to do more (and they’re doing some) to give those players chances to play in front of scouts against better competition.

Liam: My apologies if there is an obvious example I’m missing but have we ever seen an administration so blatantly go against a supreme court ruling as the current admin plans re: citizenship/census question?
Keith Law: Did Nixon? This is way out of my area.
Keith Law: Again, that’s another thing that anyone who abstains in 2020 is supporting: An overt rejection of the rule of law that has defined our system of government for nearly 250 years. You can even hate Trump’s opponent, but if you don’t vote him and his swamp dragons out, then you’re saying you are tacitly okay with what he’s doing.

Todd: With the news that Bubba Starling is getting called up to KC, do you think there’s even the tiniest chance he’ll spend time as a true big league regular?
Keith Law: No.

Ben: Why would anyone listen to sports talk radio? Have you ever encountered a decent STR station throughout your many travels across the country?
Keith Law: I don’t listen to terrestrial radio, ever, so I have no answer to that. I appear on a few sports radio programs and I know they treat me well by asking good questions.

Ron: I was surprised that Lewis even made your top 50 beings his first half was poor and his mechanics changed. Although he has started to heat up. Did he make any changes that you know of back to how he was before? Thanks!
Keith Law: I addressed that in the piece.

SGz: You had Luzardo at 31 on pre season rankings and he’s been very good when playing this year. Health was the knock in the pre season, so it seems like a reasonable question to ask why he was omitted.
Keith Law: Health was the knock and he’s been banged up again.

Joe: Justus Sheffield has put up good numbers after being sent to AA. Still the same guy he was before the season started in your mind?
Keith Law: I want to know why his velocity dropped off this year.

John: One concern about Dustin May – even to those who like him – is the results haven’t always matched the stuff. How legit is that concern for you?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s accurate. He’s been outstanding this year.

mike sixel: Royce Lewis…..is his fall mostly that your fears of him at SS are confirmed? A year of not hitting in A+? Clearly his change to his hitting is not going well. Did he do that on his own? Thanks,
Keith Law: Much more about not hitting/visible changes to his mechanics. I have never bought into the claims that he’ll stay at short: He’s not good there, and he could be very good in CF, maybe a 70 or better defender there. Most organizations would probably have moved him but the Twins have an 80 defender in center in the majors, so that may be one reason why they haven’t.

Devin: Thoughts on Kristian Robinson? Candidate to crack your top 100 next year?
Keith Law: He was on my top 100 in the winter, so yes.

Tmh: What is Rutchman”s ETA?
Keith Law: I would say end of 2020 if they want.

romorr: Having a hard time getting a read on if Keegan Akin is ready for the majors. Orioles are starting guys they pick up off waivers like crazy, so it seems Akin needs to work on some things before a promotion.
Keith Law: I agree that seems to be the implication, although I’m not sure what they think is going to change in his profile, either.

John: Alexander Canario just hit his 8th hr in under 80 abs. Will he be a legit prospect for the org?
Keith Law: He is one.
Keith Law: He’s a legit prospect, I mean.

Rick Sanchez : Worried about Mize at all?
Keith Law: Not yet.
Keith Law: yeah I just triple-checked, the MLB.com story says there were no setbacks last night. After I sent that response I thought I might have missed something.

OC Joe: Newcomb and Touki have thrived in relief this season. With all of the starting pitching depth in the high minors for Atlanta, should they stay in the pen?
Keith Law: I think that’s Newcomb’s role, but Touki still has starter potential.

Rick: In regard to Liam’s comment on the Supreme Court this pains me as a holder of a BA and Master’s in History. Did your school system teach you literally NO AMERICAN HISTORY? Andrew Jackson’s response to the court’s ruling in Worcester v. Georgia: “Justice Marshall has made his decision now let him go enforce it.” Christ almighty I understand that you may have serious issues with this White House and it’s actions but try not to be completely ignorant on history when making “all encompassing” claims. When Trump says that then we can call it the greatest attack on the Supreme Court in our history. Until then its not on the medal stand.
Keith Law: I admit to having forgotten that entire case until I saw your quote from Jackson (it’s a good line by a terrible person), probably because it happened 140 years before I was born.

Matt M: Would Nico Hoerner crack your top 100?
Keith Law: Probably. A lot of people asking why he’s not on the top 50 and … again, why would he be? He has barely played this year due to injury and it’s not like he’s a huge tools guy: His value is in the expectation that he’s going to hit.

Valentin: Hi Keith. big fan from Bern, Switzerland. have you ever heard of Prospects coming from Switzerland? Kind regards
Keith Law: The Swiss have fielded teams in youth tournaments in Europe for a while, but I’ve never heard of a player signing from there. The most likely places for teams to find European prospects right now are Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy, i think.

Tim: Vavra has been outstanding this season. Has he passed Vilade for you yet?
Keith Law: Vavra is two years older than Vilade (who is performing) and a level below. Both are prospects, but there’s not a strong argument right now for Vavra over Vilade – and Vavra is yet another college D1 product who should NOT be in low-A.

Jason: Harris or Warren?
Keith Law: I was about to ask what team. I might not be fully recovered yet.

John: Were you a big mixtape guy? I don’t know if you ever listen to my favorite local Seattle station (KEXP) or not, but they’re running a cool little mixtape contest. Given your affinity for music and playlists, seems like something you could have some fun with.
Keith Law: A little bit, yes – I would nearly always choose to listen to my own tapes and later CDs rather than listen to full albums or put on the radio.

addoeh: Have you ever heard of a player have a similar journey to the majors as Robel Garcia’s?
Keith Law: No, and I mean that literally: I don’t know of another player who went from Italy’s semipro league to the majors. It is movie material if he’s any good, maybe even if he’s not. Those are my people but the quality of baseball in Italy is not good.

Johnny O: Yankees seem to develop mid draft and int’l players well (#woo) but their first round picks have been questionable among the consensus and also aren’t panning out (Judge as the outlier in more ways than one). Volpe probably a reach, Siegler, Schmidt, Rutherford, Holder, Kaprielian, Clarkin. If Yanks are good at development, why are the missing on so many 1st round picks?
Keith Law: They are good at development, and they’ve had some very successful draft picks after the first round. Perhaps their process up top is different? Many teams approach their first picks a bit differently, and the Yankees often draft late in the round, where the types of high-upside players they value (they’re not looking for soft regulars – they want stars, or guys they think they can trade for stars) are either gone or carry some high risk.

Jeff: Stranger Things S3 thoughts?
Keith Law: Never seen the show. I need to finish Good Omens this weekend.
Keith Law: Well I never even got to announce this on Twitter – sorry, I feel bad about that – but I jumped right into it and forgot to post the tweet. Thanks to you diehards who saw this on my Facebook page or just checked the dish since it’s Thursday! I’m going to wrap this up before I pass out. I believe I will be back to chat again the next two Thursdays before taking a week off (Gen Con!). Enjoy your weekends and the return of baseball tonight.

My ranking of the top 25 MLB players under age 25 is up for ESPN+ subscribers, as is a scouting post that covers Grayson Rodriguez, Deivi Garcia, and more.

Keith Law: Well known in the streets and the gutters. Klawchat.

Dave C: If the Mets didn’t make that ill advised Cano/Diaz trade would they have a top 5 minor league system after this past draft?
Keith Law: Probably? Have to factor in what other teams have done since as well, but with Kelenic/Dunn both doing so well plus a very strong draft and only one major graduation (Alonso) they’d be in great shape.

Chris: What is Tony Gonsolin going to be long term?
Keith Law: Still TBD. Starter potential.

Scott: How close was Victor Robles to making your top 25 under 25 list?
Keith Law: I didn’t go beyond 25. Sorry.

Dave C: Now that he’s signed where would Allan slot versus the Mets other top pitching prospects- Kay, Peterson, Szapucki and Woods-Richardson?
Keith Law: Behind Kay. I think ahead of the others.

Zach: Are we finally seeing the version of Kevin Newman you’ve long championed?
Keith Law: Mostly. Bear in mind his BABIP is not going to stay at .400+ – same for Bryan Reynolds – but Newman’s high contact rates will help him even as that drifts downward.

Dave C: Can Dominic Smith be an effective Left Fielder? He’s at 0 DRS, -.2 UZR on fangraphs but I don’t know if that’s sustainable.
Keith Law: My guess is no, although I’d like him to prove me wrong on that.

Hollis: Cody Bolton just got promoted to AA. Is he a Top 100 guy in your next round of evaluations?
Keith Law: No.

Moe Mentum: Is the skepticism more about the two-city model in general, or specifically about Montreal’s and/or Tampa’s support system (investors, fans, voters, etc.)? In other words, could other cities pull off a shared team approach?
Keith Law: Two cities that were closer might pull it off, but why would two different cities fund stadiums that would only be used 40-41 times a year? No team is paying to build two; most refuse to even build one.

Scott: How do you grade the year that Carter Kieboom is having? He was over matched in the big leagues although in a very SSS. He has however absolutely RAKED in Fresno. How do you reconcile that and how has it changed your thoughts on him as a prospect either for better or worse?
Keith Law: Raking in AAA doesn’t change my view on any prospect given the juiced ball there.

Dan: Jazz Chisholm seems to be hitting the ball hard, just not all that often. Any reason to be concerned about the hit tool in his exposure to AA pitching?
Keith Law: Nope. I’m still in.

Keith Law Disciple: Should I have any optimism for Logan Warmoth – got promoted to Double A, but not showing much in the way of power and strikes out a ton.
Keith Law: I’m out … every scout I’ve asked who’s seen him has buried him.

Jake: Are you downgrading Royce Lewis because of his swing change? Do you still think he can be a 60 hitter or is there legitimate concern here?
Keith Law: He’s not a future 60 hitter with the current swing/setup, but what prevents him from going back to his old mechanics? I take guys like him and slide them down a little bit to acknowledge the change, but it’s not like I’d drop him out of the top 50 for this. There is no reason he can’t just restore the way he hit last year and become a top 10-15 prospect again.

Andrew: Who would you rather have for the next ten years, Paddock or Gore?
Keith Law: Gore.

Jake: Kowar got the bump to AA and had a nice first start. How long before Lynch follows the former Gators?
Keith Law: He hasn’t pitched in almost four weeks, so it may be a while.

Todd: Whats Deivi Garcia’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Good mid-rotation guy. Lot of risk with that frame, but the stuff is real.

Jose: Do you go to Cape this year?
Keith Law: Although I’d love to, my schedule in July is not cooperating and I may skip it this year for minor league stuff, Under Armour, and non-baseball commitments.

Tim : I watched the college World Series and thought it was great baseball. But I didn’t understand why there was so much bunting. Can you explain it? Aren’t the analytics against bunting at the mlb level the same at the highest college level?
Keith Law: Yes, but college coaches are obsessed with sac bunting as a whole. It’s easier to teach bunting than to teach hitting, I guess.

JC: Hi Keith- I know you haven’t been as high on Torkeleon as others. While he isn’t a good defender, has anything on your opinion changed at all?
Keith Law: That’s simply not true.

cm: Are you aware of any studies that say changing arm slot while pitching can increase arm health? If not, any thought on this idea?
Keith Law: Doesn’t it depend on the before and after?

Nelson: Keith, ever consider putting more uplifting links in your stick to baseball page? Sometimes its 25 downright depressing links
Keith Law: Well, the world is burning, diseases are spreading, and the Supreme Court just told voters democracy is optional. My links aren’t depressing; reality is.

Dd: I would have a really hard time getting excited for Biden, his voting record, Anita Hill, the gaffs.. 100% of my energy would be Anti- Trump. Not sure that Biden turns out young/unreliable voters out either because he isn’t that progressive.
The Dems are probably running at least 10 people who are a better choice.
Do you think we see Biden drop in the polls as people learn about his lousy voting record and voters get to know any of the four female Senators, all whom would be excellent choices?
Keith Law: I really don’t think he’s going to end up the candidate.

Steve: Think Adell gets a call up at some point this season?
Keith Law: No.

Jeff: With the picks Atlanta made from rounds 11-19, how much did that increase their draft haul? Is this a long-term strategy or just a one-time thing?
Keith Law: Very good strategy for this year’s draft class. It turned their draft class from “huh” to “pretty good.”

Jordan: What the heck are the Astros going to do with Kyle Tucker? Springer, Reddick, Alvarez and Brantley are blocking him and he needs to be playing in the big leagues right now.
Keith Law: Feels like trade bait. Doesn’t help that someone in Houston keeps leaking stories that he’s not liked in the clubhouse.

Neema: Hey Keith, love your work on ESPN! What are your thoughts on JP Crawford’s improved play this year? Do you think the breakout we’re seeing so far is legitimate?
Keith Law: Like Newman, his BABIP is unsustainable, but I still think the rest of the skill set is real – he’s always had a good eye and willingness to get to two strikes, and he has all-fields doubles power, but he got very pull-happy in Philly (and in AAA). He’s gotten back to using the whole field again and it’s helping.

Matt: How uncommon is it that Giolito has found success by largely going away from his curve, which it seems like most prospect evaluators (including you I believe) saw as his strongest pitch when he was coming up through the minors. Thanks!
Keith Law: It’s very surprising but if the pitch isn’t working for you you can’t force it. The changeup is plus, and he’s commanding the FB like never before.

Mac: You a Tesla or other EV guy?
Keith Law: Would love one but not at the current cost. I have had a Civic hybrid for six years and love it.

Kevin : In a fair world MLB would help pay for a new Rays stadium in Tampa Bay after using the region to create leverage for other teams for decades, but because life is shit should I just resign to losing my team in 8 years?
Keith Law: Yep, I think they’re toast.

Gary: What do you think is Jeff McNeil’s true talent level?
Keith Law: He’s third in the majors in BABIP, so we can probably bet on a good bit of regression. (Sorry, I didn’t mean to make this the “so-and-so’s BABIP is unsustainable chat.”) That said, as long as he keeps his K% so low he’s going to have plenty of value even without much power. Probably makes him a soft regular whenever the BABIP comes down to earth – although his ‘natural’ BABIP is probably higher than league average, given what we’ve seen in the last 11 months.

Brian: I’m not sure if you saw deadspin’s piece today about foul ball injuries but after reading it, how can MLB defend not extending netting at every park?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen the piece, but come on, are we waiting for a child to die?

Joe: Aside from drastic moves organizationally (like the Astros a couple years ago) is it common for scouts to change teams somewhat frequently? Or would it not be uncommon for one scout to spend an entire career with an organization despite several changes in GM?
Keith Law: Scouts change teams all the time. There’s still too much of a sense in front offices that they’re … not quite disposable, but more easily replaced than they actually are.

Ryan: The Dbacks tried hiring an agent to be their GM and it was a train wreck. Same thing seems to be happening to the Mets
Keith Law: Never hire off the interview. Hire off the CV, and maybe references, but never, ever hire off the interview.

Todd: Did you think Gleyber would have 30HR type potential?
Keith Law: No but the current baseball has skewed any HR projections I had for players. I thought Alonso would be a 35-40 HR guy and he’s on pace for 50.

Jack Meoff: Keith big fan!! Thank you for all you do. Is Catan a top 10 board game for you?
Keith Law: In historical importance and influence, yes. It might be #1. In my personal preferences, no. It’s a fine game, but you can wait too long between turns, and it doesn’t work with two players.

Josh Nelson: Is having just three starting pitchers the new market inefficiency? Asking for White Sox fans.
Keith Law: It’s a bold strategy, Nelson. Let’s see how it works out for you.

Kevin: With the Red Sox bullpen struggles is there any chance someone like Tanner Houck can provide relief help in the 2nd half of the season or is it too soon for him? Keep up the good work!
Keith Law: Would love to see him.

Eric: Was Yordan Alvarez eligible for your 25 under 25 list?
Keith Law: Players who still have ROY eligibility are not eligible for the list.

Ben: Would you guess we see some more deals happen earlier in July this year? 1 win would make a huge difference for a ton of these bubble teams
Keith Law: Yes. That’s my hope as well.

TheLostBoy: Are you a weekly watcher of “Last Week Tonight”?
Keith Law: I was, and I still like the show, but in this environment it’s just more things to get angry about when I am already angry enough about the world we’re creating for the next generation. (Or the generation after that, if we haven’t scorched the planet by then.)

Adam: Mackenzie Gore is dominating A+ and doesnt look like he’s being challenged. Do you see a quick ascent to the majors in the next 12 months or is he still a few years away?
Keith Law: I could see him mid-next year; the Padres don’t wait, and why would you wait on an arm that good already? But I can’t see them pushing him to the majors this year.

J: Do you happen to have like an author page, that has all of your articles for e+?
Keith Law: No, ESPN discontinued those. I asked for a new one but was told they don’t do them. (shrug)

Ben: Starting Adley at a bad level?
Keith Law: Have they announced where he’s starting? I haven’t seen that. Also, I assume that was a typo.

J: Okay, so instead of changing the literal distance a pitcher must pitch the ball, the chance MLB addresses the problem with the ACTUAL ball?
Keith Law: First they’d have to admit they have a problem.

Jason: Drew Waters is raking in AA, but he’s only 20. What’s a realistic ETA for him? And how excited should I be about him, recognizing I’m just scouting a stat line.
Keith Law: He’s raking but also striking out a lot and barely walking, which isn’t a fatal flaw but could indicate some deficiencies in the approach that are getting masked by the high average and power.

Ben: How come the Dbacks didn’t select Matt Allen with any of their picks if he was so good?
Keith Law: Because they didn’t want to commit well over slot to signing him.

Baltimurph: Following up on your scouting report, do you think Grayson Rodriguez is a future MLB starter as is or do you think his mechanics need to be totally rebuilt?
Keith Law: I can’t think of an MLB starter who throws like that. Any examples I could come up with who were close ended up getting hurt.

romorr: Adley was thought of as a fast riser. Him going to GCL/A- should put that to rest, right?
Keith Law: Wrong.
Keith Law: Where he starts isn’t really relevant to the question of how fast he’ll move. He may start in Aberdeen because it’s so close to Baltimore, for example.

Zac: Is Kumar Rocker trending towards a top 5 pick in 2 years?
Keith Law: I said on the podcast this morning that I’d go top 10, but not stronger. There’s a whole class of players we’ve barely seen for the 2021 draft, and putting Rocker in a bucket like that now doesn’t adequately consider the rest of the candidates.

John: Esteban Florial a future all star?
Keith Law: I don’t see it. Pitch recognition is still a problem.

Ben: Have you ever had surgery? Would you be scared?
Keith Law: Twice. Wasn’t scared but can’t say I enjoyed any of it.

Chris: Given how bad the Mets pitching is, I’d consider selling incredibly high on Alonso for 4-5 good young arms and bump Smith to 1B. Am I crazy?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine ownership would allow it, and fans would riot, but trading Alonso now for something – they’re not getting 4-5 good young arms, those deals do not exist – would have merit. I think it’s way more likely they deal Dom.

Rick Saul: What happened to Manuel Margot’s offense?. Has ship sailed on him being a productive MLBer?
Keith Law: Still just 24.
Keith Law: All the ex-prospects who broke out this year should serve as a nice reminder to stop giving up too soon on ex-prospects.

Sally: Hello Keith big fan. Is the Ooni oven great?
Keith Law: I love it. I’ve gotten it up to 900 degrees (actually too hot, the bottom of the crust started to burn), can hold it in the 770-800 range for a while, found it easy to work with. You just have to keep feeding it pellets to keep the temp up; once it drops, it drops fast and takes a while to heat back up.

Ryan: Did you see the article on The Athletic on the Ranger’s failed de-load program? Are there any other teams trying new throwing programs to help prevent arm injuries?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen that either but I have heard a lot of whispers of something they were trying that pitchers/agents suspected was contributing to their rash of injuries. Always hard to tell what’s legit and what’s griping.

cm: On the arm slots, I meant using more than one slot while pitching. For example, like David Cone used to at times.
Keith Law: Ah, thank you, I did not understand. I don’t think so; I would guess that for most pitchers it would increase injury risk because you’re trying to use muscles you don’t normally use to throw.

Adam: WIth so much young talent under the age of 24 succeeding early in MLB, do you see arbitration years being adjusted with new CBA? Seeing players like Judge/Bellinger/ getting under 1Mil per year is insane
Keith Law: I would really like to see that. The union has to change its focus for the next negotiation towards paying young players more, whether via more arb years or earlier free agency.

Mike: Are Casey Mize’s mechanics going to lead to continues arm problems?
Keith Law: No.

Frank: As a D-Backs fan how excited should I be about Tommy Henry? He was dominant in the CWS. While he doesn’t have the velocity everyone is obsessed with now the control and movement looked outstanding.
Keith Law: Back-end starter.

Indians system: Is Mahoning Valley key to Indians’ future? Rocchio, Valera, Hankins, Delgado
Keith Law: Their strongest affiliate for future talent.

Sally: How often do you and Chris Crawford hangout? Love you both on twitter
Keith Law: We’ve only hung out 2-3 times, but we talk online every day. Mostly baseball and movies but other stuff too. Great dude.

Robert: Does the uniqueness of Nick Madrigal’s profile make him more difficult to assess as a prospect?
Keith Law: No.

Uli Jon: My friend is going to Gen Con. Do you have an updated dining guide or just a few places you can recommend?
Keith Law: I eat at the food trucks that line up next to the convention center. There are some great ones – Keplinger’s Fresh Catch is the first place I eat each year.

Feeling A Draft: Based on what you said about this coming year’s draft on the BBTN podcast do you think it would be smart of teams at this year’s trade deadline to try to acquire competitive balance picks?
Keith Law: For sure. But most teams want to retain those, so my guess is only 1-2 get moved.

BigDaddeh: Do you think the Mets success is going to lead to other teams using former agents as GMs?
Keith Law: (spit take)

Paul: Hey Keith – your love for Oreo’s is well-known and righteous. I saw your tweet last night as I happened to be eating an Oreo Blizzard from Dairy Queen, and it got me wondering: any KLaw thoughts on Oreo Blizzards? Also if this question makes the chat, I’d just like to also announce that Oreo McFlurries are trash and don’t deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Oreo Blizzards, thank you for your time.
Keith Law: I do love oreos mixed into ice cream. When I go to Culvers (rare, but I love it), my go-to is a chocolate concrete with oreos and pecans.

Bob Pollard: Sorry if you’ve addressed this (probably have many times), but where do you stand on “clutch is a myth/no it’s real”?
Keith Law: It’s a myth. I explain at length in Smart Baseball.

BigDaddeh: Is Nick Solak an every day guy one in the majors?
Keith Law: I’d bet the under.

Tom C: Why don’t you think Adell will get called up this year? Setback because of his injury earlier this season? I was thinking maybe it could be like a Trout scenario where they call him up late and prep to be up for good next year.
Keith Law: He’s barely played this year, and they’d be adding him to the 40-man before they needed to do so.

Andrew: Corbin Martin BB/9 at A and AA was 2.5, now this year 4.5 in AAA (was 5.5 w/ HOU). Reason for concern or just growing pains?
Keith Law: Again, the ball in AAA is different than in AA.

Dave: What did you think when you heard that the Mets were having Rosario take reps in CF? I don’t know what the heck happened to his defense at SS but it has been atrocious going on two years now. Do you think he could make a plus defensive CFer?
Keith Law: His regression on defense has to be laid on the coaching staff. I saw him in the minors, so did everyone else. Nobody had him playing like this.

Mat Ji: I’m old enough to remember back when Bauer was going to stop being an internet troll….way back in January of 2019.
Keith Law: He’s gone out of his way to attack at least two women writers I know just since this season began. He can say whatever dumb shit he wants to me, but the story I heard the other day – I don’t know if I can repeat any of this – is beyond trolling. Writers who continue to talk him up are just enabling him.
Keith Law: And, by the way, there are 750+ other players out there. I’m sure there’s at least one more guy who is analytically-minded and focused on self-improvement through modern methods, and would be happy to talk about it on the record.

JP: Is Yamamoto a mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: No.

alek: what is Alec Bohm’s offensive potential
Keith Law: I think there’s some middle-of-the-order potential there. He’s 90% likely to do it at first base, though, and the Phillies have a pretty good one.

John: What’s Luis Arraez’s ceiling, everyday 2B? More likely outcome utility guy?
Keith Law: More likely utility guy but I wouldn’t rule out everyday.

romorr: Adley to GCL to knock off rust, then to A-. From press conference.
Keith Law: Yeah I don’t see how that would mean he’s not a fast mover … why couldn’t he start next year in AA?

Chris: Would you include C Will Smith in a trade for Felipe Rivero? What else would the Dodgers have to kick in?
Keith Law: I would not but I value relievers lower than the trade market seems to.

Mark: When do you think Luis Urias gets recalled?
Keith Law: I mean, he should have been up a month ago.

Jackson: Do you project Alzolay as a SP? Ceiling?
Keith Law: I think so, as long as he can get LHB out with the FB/CB (or his CH really improves).

Capt. Gore: “if we haven’t scorched the planet by then” he said as he hoped in a plane and flew across the country….again…
Keith Law: Capt. Gore: “Yet you participate in society. Curious! I am very intelligent.”

Jonathan: Thoughts on Jake Cronenworth. Hitting well and heard he was up to 95 from the mound.
Keith Law: Interesting. Up to 96 with a plus CB, small mechanical tweaks last year at the plate that let him drive the ball better. Older guy for a prospect, so I’m skeptical as always of how much is just age vs level, but there are tangible skills there.

Trey Anastasio: Have you ever seen Phish live?
Keith Law: OK someone’s trolling me. I’m seeing them for the first time this weekend and I think you know this.

James: Do top College pitchers get time to rest their arms? Seems like it is year round pitching with fall ball, summer Ball and then the season?
Keith Law: More college arms skip the summer than ever before. As much as I would like more chances to see them, this is the right call for the pitchers.

Craig: Do you think a “deader” ball would reduce the reliance on 3 True Outcomes baseball, mainly because it would quickly become inefficient for average/mediocre players?
Keith Law: Yes. That said, I don’t want a ball that leads to even more strikeouts. I just want a HR rate more in line with historical levels.

Jonathan: Is Shane Bieber the next James Shields, which is a good thing, or is there more there?
Keith Law: No, this is it. And it’s fine. Back end starter type because he’ll always be HR prone.

Kev: What is your % belief that Vargas actually has legit dirt/excuse for why he was being a gigantic asshole bully to the reporter last week?
Keith Law: Zero. And frankly, even if he does have it, just apologize in public and deal with this in private.

Jesse B: Keibert Ruiz has really struggled this year, obviously he’s still really young. Meanwhile, Will Smith is thriving in AAA, and done well in his cup of coffee. Is it safe to say that Will Smith will be the starting catcher for the Dodgers next year?
Keith Law: Yes but that doesn’t dim Ruiz’s potential, as he’s so much younger.

Jeries: Could Nick Madrigal play shortstop? Tim Anderson has been BAD this year
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Trey Anastasio: My take on the Red Sox future is that they would be wise to lock up Devers & Betts (Xander already signed)… and use Benintendi as a trade chip for a young SP. What you be on board fo that strategy?
Keith Law: Yes but it sounds like Mookie wants to go to free agency, no? Devers I’m sure they could lock up.

Alex: Hey Keith, I haven’t had the chance to write in since the Kumar Rocker 19 K start. I 100% agree that he was left in too long, especially seeing as he hasn’t received his baseball millions yet. Still, in the moment, that was the most fun random baseball game I have watched from beginning to end in ages. It’s kind of similar to knowing that home runs and fly balls above all is a better strategy than small ball and putting the ball in play. I don’t really have a question, except to bemoan that the more we learn, the less exciting baseball can be.
Keith Law: Sure, I don’t disagree. But I will say that this idea that Rocker did something he’ll remember forever is a bit much. Maybe in the moment it felt that way, but “threw a no-hitter in a college playoff super regional” is pretty niche. Great personal achievement but hardly worth pushing a kid’s arm too far.

Jon: Never hire off the interview. Is that for all jobs in your opinion or just baseball? If the former, why have interviews? Thanks.
Mat Ji: “Never hire off the interview. Hire off the CV, and maybe references, but never, ever hire off the interview.” Having sat through multiple pointless interviews with candidates this week, I am not sure I could agree more.
Keith Law: I feel like Mat just answered Jon a bit. Why have interviews? Aren’t they 90% eyewash? They likely often deter decision-makers from hiring the better employee because they hire the person they liked more (perhaps for subconscious reasons, perhaps even biased ones) or the person who was more animated or funnier or energetic.

Ben: This time next year Reilly Greene will be playing at ____ level?
Keith Law: Low A.

fish: christian pache will be an elite defender T/F? pache will be a league-average hitter at best T/F?
Keith Law: He is an elite defender. He will find his way to league average with power.

Sally: Why have you not be as hard on Dodgers Urias for domestic violence as you have on others? Such as Addison Russell
Keith Law: Charges were dropped and MLB declined to suspend him. Russell was suspended, so MLB found sufficient cause, and his ex-wife came forward with a very detailed account of the abuse.

Mike: What do teams do with players and prospects like franklin Perez and Roman Quinn who always seem to be hurt. Do you rush them and hope you can extract value until they are inevitably hurt again or try and move them to a team that thinks they can unlock the potential and cure their injury issues.
Keith Law: If you have the playing time to give them, you try to hold on to them and give them opportunities until you either have a better option or you need the 40-man spot.

romorr: I just figured since the Orioles are so far away from being good, that they would be conservative with him. You know, maybe 3 years down instead of 2. Was thinking he was bound for Delmarva from the start, so just trying to understand.
Keith Law: I would guess he starts next year in Frederick, moves quickly to Bowie, and is in position for a major-league callup by August. They may choose not to do so, as you said, because they’re not good, but in terms of his readiness, I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t blitz his way through the low minors to double-A.

Biff: What do you make of Alex Reyes’ inability to stay healthy?
Keith Law: I’ve always disliked his delivery. Maybe that’s why. Maybe it’s just bad luck.
Keith Law: I mean, maybe he can’t stay healthy because of his delivery, not because I don’t like the delivery. I’m not that powerful.

EG: Gerrymandering okay, says US Supreme Court. The 2016 Electron will haunt us for decades.
Keith Law: Yep. We got what we deserved.

Magoo: Hey Keith, huge board game nerd with a 9 month old here. Obviously still quite early for me, but good suggestions for beginner games, and what age would be good to start?
Keith Law: There are really good games aimed at kids 4+. Before then just play anything at all that they like – it’s the playing with them that matters, not the game.

Jofp gallagher: Do you believe the Lucas Giolito in the future will be more like this year’s Giolito or last year’s Giolito?
From worse to one of the best pitchers is a remarkable achievement so I wonder.
Keith Law: I’m in. Real changes to delivery and stuff.

Jason: Ceiling on Austin Riley?
Keith Law: Got to make more contact first.

Ridley: I’m always excited to see Elizabeth Warren speak. Is that legit, or is it just the novelty of potentially having a President who is willing to do the work to learn a subject and come up with an intelligent policy for it?

P.S. Regarding interviews: Never hire off an interview, but you can absolutely disqualify candidates based on ’em.
Keith Law: She’s my favored candidate right now, as she has real policy proposals with substance behind them, and everything she says seems well-considered. What a concept.
Keith Law: Gotta run – thanks for all your questions, as always. I’ll be back next week for one more pre-Futures Game chat. And come see me at the Hudson Library & Historical Society on July 8th in Hudson, Ohio. Thanks again!