Keith Law: Let the melody shine. It’s Klawchat.

Rob D: Is Adley a better prospect than Posey was in his draft year?
Keith Law: No, not in my opinion. I do think there are scouts/execs who disagree; Posey wasn’t projected to hit for as much power as he did, and Adley is a better defensive catcher right now than Posey was on draft day, but I think Posey was a much better pure hitter at that time.

Mark: Has Anthony Kay pushed into a top 100 guy? Seems like his stuff is back and maybe better than ever.
Keith Law: Stuff is back, healthy, don’t think the stuff is any better but he needed more time to recover his command and be able to hold his stuff deep into games. I’m like a broken record on this but not every guy who has TJ comes back fresh as a daffodil the moment he returns to pro ball. Some guys take way longer, some need a second surgery (Espinoza and Ragans already this year), some just never come back.
Keith Law: Anyway, yeah, Kay’s pretty damn good.

TC: what has been the craziest/most intense high school or college game you have ever scouted at?
Keith Law: I saw Byron Buxton create the tying run in the bottom of the 7th with his speed when I saw him in HS, in Baxley, Georgia, and his team ended up walking it off a few batters later. I think it was an important game for the team and there were far more people there than at almost any other HS game I’ve ever attended.

addoeh: How many Republicans will look the other way when Trump inevitably ignores both the Courts and Congress with regards to investigating his finances?
Keith Law: All of them? All of them. Susan Collins will express her concern, though.

Eric: Barring an unexpected drop by Adley, is Abrams the pick at 3 for the White Sox?
Keith Law: He’s a possible pick. If 1-2 are Adley-Witt, I think the White Sox would choose between Vaughn and Abrams. They’ve been linked to HS guys a few times in recent drafts only to revert to college on draft day.

Justin: A couple of years ago you correctly predicted the twins regression after a hot start to the season, any thoughts on the team this year?
Keith Law: Legit. I said this winter I thought they were a more likely contender than people thought. Granted, I don’t think they hit 400 homers this year or whatever they’re projected to hit, but I do think they are a 90+ win team.

addoeh: Would you ever take your dog to a bark at the baseball park promotional event?
Keith Law: I don’t have a dog but if I did I wouldn’t, mostly because I’d be so focused on the dog that I wouldn’t enjoy the game. I was at a Wilmington game recently and sat next to a very large, sweet-tempered dog … who just didn’t like this one other dog who kept walking past us and so he’d briefly lose his mind.

Phil: Hey Keith. Has Gio Urshela made sustainable changes or is this still small sample size?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time.

Jesse B: What are your thoughts on the season Dylan Carlson is having so far?
Keith Law: That kind takes some really exceptional at bats for his age.

Matt B: I know you weren’t a fan of how Jim Penders handled his pitchers, but Anthony Kay and Tim Cate are having darn good years this season. What are you seeing or hearing on them?
Keith Law: Answered a little above, but I think those guys are succeeding in spite of Uconn’s handling of them.

Damien : Has Giolito finally arrived?
Keith Law: I’m in. It’s weird, the guy who kept asking me in chat when I was going to admit that Giolito would never be more than a fifth starter hasn’t asked me that in a long time.

Jeff: Any truth to the underslot deals for Brett Baty in the top 10 that’s going around? He seems to be either be loved or down on the board because of his age.
Keith Law: I never want to say never, but I don’t think he goes that high. If he were 18, then yes, he’d go top ten, we might even talk about him as a top five talent. But analytical models are going to destroy him for his age. Part of me wonders if that’s too extreme because we simply don’t have comparables – when was the last really good HS position player who was 19.5 or more on draft day?

Brian: I know you’ve commented on the Phillies disastrous first round picks in recent weeks. But is it a little early to give up on Moniak at 21? He’s had a very good May after a strong second half last year & his power is up, with it actually being better on the road than at Reading.
Keith Law: Avoid that kind of thin-slicing unless you know of an actual mechanical or physical change to justify it – and there isn’t one here.

G: So..this version of Josh Bell came out of nowhere, huh? I don’t recall ever seeing raw power grades on him equating to the types of bombs he’s hitting lately.
Keith Law: I think he’s always had that kind of power, but didn’t execute in games in a way that would get to it – like many Pirates hitters he was more focused on contact and going the other way until this year.

Matt: How does a guy like Torres hit 10 HR’s vs 1 specific team but 2 vs the rest of MLB? Is it SSS or is he able to see the ball better in Baltimore?
Keith Law: There is no “see the ball better in” park X. The Orioles’ pitching is kind of terrible. I also think Gleyber’s pretty good, BTW.

Jeff: First player to the big leagues from the 2019 draft?
Keith Law: I think Vaughn and Rutschman will move very quickly, or a polished starter like Manoah. I don’t see a reliever who’s going to fly through a system (and half the time that doesn’t work anyway).

Chris: How do you think Kevin Cron will fare in the major leagues?
Keith Law: I think he’s going to strike out way too much. Those 21 HR are a function of real power + Reno’s ridiculous environment + AAA using the silly ball now.

Dylan: Stupid question that likely only I am interested in – any thoughts on which potential top 5 pick has the most fantasy upside?
Keith Law: Abrams, if he goes top 5, has 80 speed and might be a 30-40 stolen base guy. Rutschman I suppose has a lot of value as a catcher who should hit 20-25 HR a year.

Nate: If Bryan reynolds has below average power and can only play left field can he still be a major league starter?
Keith Law: I don’t think either part of your premise is true.

Cw: Who do you think is the ideal fit in the draft for the Phillies system?
Keith Law: The best player available.

Paul: So glad to see your expectations for Devers come true. Approach, conditioning and natural skills all coming together now!
Keith Law: Still young, too. More power to come.

Jeff: Is Bobby Witt’s age any concern too or is he that good where it won’t end up mattering in the top 5?
Keith Law: I think that his age should be a little more of a concern and Baty’s should be a little less, but that neither guy should be eliminated or massively downgraded for it. Witt’s good. Baty’s good. Their age is one variable among many. I also think Witt’s going 2 so it’s probably not affecting him at all.

Bradley: Congratulations on staying aboard the Giolito train. White Sox fans have to be feeling very encouraged after his start to the year and especially last night. Does he still have the TOR potential that was expected of him as a prospect? Ceiling?
Keith Law: I do think he does, especially with that plus changeup he’s using now.

88 Skis: Lots of talk about the Rangers going under-slot at 8, overslot at 41 and/or 50. Assuming they go underslot at 8, who are the names we should be watching for them to go over for with the next two picks?
Keith Law: Yes, I’ve heard this, but then again the advisers of the players they’ve supposedly tried to negotiate deals with already say nothing of the sort has happened. I think this is more Texas casting a wide net, knowing that they may not get anyone they love if 1-7 all go with slot guys.

Kevin: Buxton looks like a bust for former #1 prospect. Why everyone projects he will hit for average and power in the minors?
Keith Law: Buxton has a 111 wRC+ and 1.6 fWAR already this year. Did you type this question in February and only hit send today?

MMitchell: What do you make of teams no longer waiting until the projected Super 2 cutoff to call up premium prospects. Should the Astros move on Yordan Alvarez now?
Keith Law: Where would they play him?

Ker Pal: When you worked for the Jays, were you aware that Victoria Day was a big deal in Canada? The tone deafness of giving your only attraction (Vlad) a routine day off on one of the biggest attendance days of the year was pretty incredible.
Keith Law: I was made aware of it by the Canadian natives in the office, so, yeah, this was a surprising choice by the team.

joe random: have the Giants been linked to any player in particular?
Keith Law: A lot of players, including a couple of HS arms (Allan), and Hunter Bishop if he gets there.

Jeff: 2 former SS to play for us. Who is the more surefire big leaguer? Shewmake or Will Wilson?
Keith Law: Wilson, I think.

Beau: Why do you think so many teams/ scouts missed on Franmil. What has he changed?
Keith Law: He changed his approach midyear 2018, after a demotion to AAA. Before then, he was overly aggressive and very vulnerable to breaking stuff. He came back a different guy.
Keith Law: He went from someone I tabbed as a low-OBP fourth OF before 2018 to one of my breakout picks for 2019 (so far, that one looks good).

romorr: Have you heard of any concrete changes to the Orioles pitching philosophy in the minors? Some guys are putting up some huge K numbers than before, and a few control/command guys are walking more.
Keith Law: No and I saw Frederick’s whole rotation but one and I don’t think anything has changed there … they just have some good arms. No bats though.

Jeff: How close was Quin Cotton to the top 100? 4th OF or future starter if it all works out?
Keith Law: Fourth OF most likely. In the next 20-30 names.

Jarred Kelenic: How good will i be and will trading me be one of the Mets’ worst moves ever?
Keith Law: Frequent all-star and yes. Dunn’s good too.

Mike: How can we get legislators to understand that giving huge subsidies (tax breaks, cash incentives and gifted municipal property) is a really, really bad idea that does not pay off economically in any way, shape or form?
Keith Law: Only by voting them out every single time. For now, legislators see it as a way to stay in office.

Eric: Best way to cook a whole chicken?
Keith Law: Spatchcock.

Zac: Has Jake Rogers changed his approach this year or is it a case of SSS?
Keith Law: SSS.

G: Have you watched Fleabag season 2? Easily my favorite show of 2019 so far. Phoebe Waller-Bridge is so talented it makes me angry with myself.
Keith Law: That’s my next binge-watch, actually. She’s amazing. I’m also still working through Doctor Who, of course.

Jordan: Who will win the Indy 500 on Sunday?
Keith Law: It won’t be the measles! http://www.espn.com/racing/indycar/story/_/id/26807623/indy-500-offici…

Ryan: Will Gore be the #1 pitching prospect in baseball at the start of next year?
Keith Law: Probably … depends on whether Whitley turns his season around and gets the call.

Cape Guy: Where do you see Tyler Dyson being drafted? Was impressed with him this summer at Falmouth but looks like there was some regression at UF.
Keith Law: I don’t think he goes in the top three rounds. He could fall to the eleventh if he still wants top 100 kind of money.

Ant T: Who are the Mets most linked to at 12?
Keith Law: College guys, mostly, a bat if one falls, an arm like Manoah or Kirby if not.

romorr: Zac Lowther continues to pitch well, chances he is more than a back end guy? Dreaming of a Hall, Rodriguez, Lowther 1-2-3.
Keith Law: More back-end guy with the marginal stuff but a good/fun one. Some #4/#5 starters are just more fun to watch than others.

Josh: Did Buck’s abuse of Bundy in 2016 contribute to what he is now, or do you think the damage was already done and this is the best version of Bundy that could possibly manifest given his injuries?
Keith Law: I think it is impossible to separate the two. He was overused badly in HS, leading to elbow and shoulder injuries, then came back quickly and was forced into a heavier workload than you’d want for someone with his history.

Josh: Zach Plesac have a chance to be a mid rotation type or more back end?
Keith Law: That sounds like his range of outcomes, barring injury.

mark: If Vaughn is the only “top 6” hitter left at 6 , who do you think the Padres take?
Keith Law: They should take him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they passed for Lodolo and the Reds took Vaughn.

Hank: Biggio is coming up, and he wasn’t on your top 100. He has good numbers, but I know you say not to scout the stat lines. So what is it about him that you (and others) feel sets him apart from others with similar numbers, and what can we expect in the majors?
Keith Law: I’ve seen him a lot and he has never hit decent quality pitching. It’s dead-pull power, not a good feel to hit, with a passive approach, and he has no real position.

Alex Failla: Has Kevin Newman recaptured the magic he had at the Cape? Bat has looked good this year, and he looks smooth at SS. I know, SSS, but it’s been promising. I feel he’s been overlooked.
Keith Law: I was always a fan, so I’m probably too inclined to say yes … but yes.

Paul Q: It is fairly common in the other Big 3 professional leagues for a college coach to make the leap to the pro’s. Would that ever be feasible in baseball, and if so, who are some of the coaches you think are potentially most capable?
Keith Law: Several college pitching coaches have done so recently and I think that’s the most likely pipeline, rather than head coaches, who make a lot of money at top colleges and may not see the benefit.

TP: Kevin Cron a guy or a GUY?
Keith Law: No, just a guy.

Jeff: Do you think rushing a guy like Ryan Wagner to the bigs hurt his career or it was bound to happen? Thank you!
Keith Law: He was a blowout risk from the start, so moving him quickly was a good idea, but he had about 9 minor league innings before he reached the majors – because the GM at the time was trying to not get fired – and that part did hurt him.

Timothy: Sorry if I missed it but did you give your thoughts on Stewart going to Japan?
Keith Law: Yes, on Buster’s podcast. Until Stewart signs a contract, this is all hypothetical – and could be posturing. I want to see the draft abolished, but I don’t think this is the right test case, and I believe Stewart is walking away from a non-guaranteed but potentially much higher payday in the US. He would benefit far more from going into an MLB farm system and getting the coaching he needs – he regressed badly this spring, in part a function of going to a JC without any track record of developing players because he could stay at home, and a pro system would likely straighten him out (literally!) in short order.

Alan: Any chance Mets could go underslot at 12 and float Leiter to round 2?
Keith Law: If the rumored ask for Leiter is true, then no. I’ve heard he might only consider the Yanks or Mets, or that he wants a top 5 bonus, or that he’s unsignable at any price.

Chad: I remember you not being high on Ryu when he first came over. Was that a miss or has something changed that has allowed him to pitch like an ace since coming back from injury last year?
Keith Law: He’s thrown a lot harder here (when healthy) than he did there or even when I saw him that first spring training, when he was working 87-90.
Keith Law: Didn’t one of the other Dodgers pitchers also teach him a curveball? I have a vague recollection of that. He was a big changeup guy in Korea.

Matt: Since reaction time slows when you age, do you think the day is coming where it will be rare to see a player over 30? At some point, pitchers are throwing too hard for the hitter to react in time.
Keith Law: It’s already starting to happen. Rare might overstate it, but this is becoming more and more a young hitter’s game.

Eric: Man, Keith, you totally got got by that guy trying to Old Takes Expose you by saying [checks notes] … Gleyber Torres was the second-best prospect in all of baseball when he was 20?
Keith Law: That was a strange one. Don’t people know Fred (the guy behind OTE) is pretty sharp, and tries to highlight the most egregious takes?

BigDaddeh: Is this version of Joey Gallo real?
Keith Law: The .400+ BABIP won’t last but as an above-average to star-level offensive player, yeah, I’m in.

Tone Deaf: How about the Cubs starting Addison Russell on Women’s Empowerment Night.
Keith Law: The most tone-deaf of all.

Josh: Thank you for never sticking to sports
Keith Law: You’re welcome. It sort of amazes me when (a small fraction of) people think you can separate sports from the rest of the world. Sports encompasses politics, race, gender, economics, even a little science. There are no silos any more.
Keith Law: Maybe there never were.

Blake F: Usually in the draft, the Nationals like to go for players who have dropped a little due to injury and chase their ceiling. But I can’t see an obvious candidate for that at #17, so where do you see them going in round one?
Keith Law: Next mock will be Tuesday but I think there will be enough famous, higher-ceiling guys around for that pick that they’ll get a typical Nats guy.

Brian: The Phillies system seems to be off to a rough start. But are there any players who you have heard good things about in the first two months?
Keith Law: Unfortunately the answer was Spencer Howard but he’s still on the IL.

AJ: Which 2nd base prospect do you think will stick this year – Biggio or Urias?
Keith Law: Biggio isn’t a 2b.

BigDaddeh: What’s the deal with this Callihan that the Yankees are connected to? Seems like a stocky LH hitter with no real defensive position?
Keith Law: One of the best pure hit tools in the class. Stocky might be misleading – he’s strong, and not fat or heavy or anything.

paul q: Niche request, but who are some of the top prospects coming out of the AAC this year and what are their landing spots?
Keith Law: Hoese could get into the first round, very likely top 40. Brickhouse and Feoli should go in rounds 3-4.
Keith Law: (I had to look at the list of AAC schools. I’ll never keep that conference straight.)

Paul: On the earlier question about Vlad, would the front office ever relay to a manager not to bench a certain player – or advise them to bench that player on the road?
Keith Law: Of course. All the time.

Joe: Martin Pérez? Real or fake?
Keith Law: I think the breakout is real. Using that cutter like a third of the time (HT to Aaron Gleeman for tweeting that stat) and it’s a legit weapon for him – especially since his lack of a real average breaker was always a problem.

Eric: If you were Rick Hahn/Nick Hostetler and Adley and Witt were off the board, who would you select?
Keith Law: Vaughn. Big gap between him and next best available player.

Dylan: Does Gilolito getting it back together cement your status as not just a genius but certainly a very stable genius at that?
Keith Law: I’m very calm. Aren’t I calm? Dylan, tell them I was calm.

Rick: I’m having my “no more kids” surgery next week and figured that weekend would be a good time to start getting back into reading. What are a couple of good, immersive/enthralling books you’ve read over a few-day span recently that you’d recommend?
Keith Law: Shame Alex Speier’s book Homegrown isn’t out yet – I just tore through it in about 36 hours. Lisa Halliday’s Asymmetry and John Carreyrou’s Bad Blood are two of the best books I’ve read this year.

Adam: We got Pandemic, got Catan, got Ticket to Ride – family loves all of them. What’s the next family game to get?
Keith Law: Splendor, Azul, Stone Age (longer playing time), 7 Wonders (I think you need kids to be at least 10 to grasp it).

Joe: Too early to give up on Austin Hays?
Keith Law: I don’t want to, but he looked terrible rehabbing here with Frederick.

jbar: Higher upisde, Michael Busch or Logan Davidson?
Keith Law: Davidson has more upside but I would pick Busch.

Eric: Bundy’s high school coach is who should be to blame, right?
Keith Law: Yes, but his father has to take some of that too – especially when, at the time, he would talk openly about how durable Dylan was.

Ridley Kemp: ’bout time The Verve got some love (and money).

As an unabashed fan of Good Omens, I have to ask: Did you laugh when you got to the bit about the four other bikers of the apocalypse? That one gives me the giggles every time.
Keith Law: Yep, that was a bit of genius. The book is a little uneven, unsurprising with two authors and a bit of a slapdash premise, but there are some parts that are really brilliant.

RJ: In the scenario where Vaughn falls to Detroit, I assume you’d take him over Greene?
Keith Law: Yes. I would probably take Adley 1, and then if he’s gone, Vaughn would be the next name I’d take over anyone. When I posted my top 100 this Tuesday, that is my best approximation of what my board might look like if I ran a draft room (bearing in mind that an actual scouting director would have seen all of the candidates for his first pick, and has an entire team of scouts plus an R&D department to help build that board, not just me playing pretend).

Ryan: Has Biggio changed something this year to lower his k%? Is it real?
Keith Law: Yeah, he got to AAA where the ball is different and lots of not very good hitters are going off.

Dave: If you could un-do one prospect injury from the last 10 years and see how the player would have turned out, which would it be?
Keith Law: I will always wonder what Fernando Martinez’s career would have looked like without the leg injury/issue that more or less ended his career.

HankQQ: Braves at 9. If not hunter bishop, who do you think they would take?
Keith Law: Corbin Carroll. Could be a wild-card third name in there, I’ll hold that till Tuesday because I’m not that certain.

Michael: Could you explain the logic behind why you would want to bat your best hitter at #2? I get that it is the most optimal, but is it just because it maximizes the number of plate appearances as well as having runners on base for them to drive in?
Keith Law: That’s quite a good summary.

jay_B: Albert Almora seems to be swinging for the fences a lot more this season. Think he can be a league average bat to go with his solid CF glove, maybe a 3 win player?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s the logic I had in mind when putting him on my breakout list. His breakout has really just been a few weeks, though, so I don’t want to get too confident.

Jack: Has Owen Miller in the Padres system registered anywhere on your radar? All the kid does is hit wherever he goes. I know many of his tools seem average, but it feels like he could be a solid utility player at the next level.
Keith Law: Yes, he was on my Padres’ farm report in January.

Andrew: I know you don’t eat beef anymore Keith but what’s the best way to cook beef or pork ribs?
Keith Law: Smoke.

Noah D: What do the Brewers do with Huira when Shaw comes back from the DL?
Keith Law: I’d rather play Hiura ROS than Shaw.

Ryan: Soooo are you still worried about Austin Riley’s bat speed? Or has your opinion changed at all?
Keith Law: Soooo are you saying a week of games should change my opinion? People who rush to gotcha anyone over this tiny a sample must have just started watching baseball in the last few days. Junior Lake had a pretty good first week too, as I recall. (Austin Riley is a real prospect; Lake wasn’t. Riley was on my top 100 this winter and Lake might not have made a top 500.)

Andrew: Do you buy guys that are older ages in high school tend to bust more?
Keith Law: If they bust more, the difference in bust frequency is small, and you risk missing some pretty good players if you just dispense with all 19+ high schoolers.

Andrew: I have an anxiety disorder since my diagnosis of bipolar disorder and with my main medication, I’ve been given an anti-anxiety medication to help me not feel anxious all the time. The only problem is that they make me drowsy and I haven’t taken it in years. Should I stop tryna find ways to deal with my anxiety head on (Toastmasters/cold showers) or take the anti-anxiety medication daily?
Keith Law: That’s really a question for your doctor and/or psychiatrist. I do take anti-anxiety medication and tried several, including varying doses, until I got to a combination of efficacy and minimum side effects that I could live with.

Noah D: Can Jung from Tech rise up much more than in the 20s and teens where he is currently projected?
Keith Law: Don’t think so.

Bill: Love your stuff. Rhulman 20 recommendation was a game changer. My question is: why are there any yankee fans who dislike Cashman? He rarely gets burned in trades and he seems to repeatedly discover cast offs.
Keith Law: I’m not sure. Don’t you also have to credit their R&D strength and the player development machine that takes those castoffs and some unconventional-looking prospects and turns them into valuable big leageurs or trade pieces to him? He oversaw the construction of this organization.

Mike: How soon after the end of the draft can the remaining free agents be signed by teams without giving up draft compensation? Like, immediately after the last pick or midnight, the next business day, etc?
Keith Law: I think after the draft ends on the 5th.
Keith Law: I’m not totally sure.

Warren G: In a previous article you mentioned that Corbin Carroll’s arm doesn’t project to average, but Perfect Game has him recorded as having hit 91 from the OF. This is not intended to be a gotcha question, but I’m curious what about his throwing has led you to believe that it will not reach average. Is it lack of carry? Velocity? Accuracy? Thanks for all your draft work.
Keith Law: I didn’t say that. Sorry.

Paul: You weren’t as high on Andres Gimenez as others, but do you think he’s better than what he is currently showing?
Keith Law: He’s only 20 in AA – can’t give up on him yet. The slow start shows a tiny bit of my concern about his lack of ceiling, but it’s also less than two months and he’s so young.

Alex: Let’s take the prospect injury question and expand it to any player, any era of baseball. Who do you wish had stayed healthy? I’d have loved to have seen Eric Davis meet his potential.
Keith Law: Brien Taylor.

Michael: Hey Keith- What should the Phillies do with Nick Williams? Does he have any trade value whatsoever at this point?
Keith Law: Almost no trade value there.

Seth: If Bart were in this draft where would you have him ranked?
Keith Law: Somewhere in the 6-10 range, as opposed to around 12 where I believe i had him last year.

Nate in Seattle: Wondering your take on Corbin Burnes struggles. Knowing your success rate with breakout guys, Will he start the 2020 all star game?
Keith Law: Heh. Giolito was a breakout pick for me in 2018, so maybe?

Jay: On Busters’ podcast, you mentioned that scouts don’t like dealing with Vanderbilt. Why is that?
Keith Law: They complain they have a hard time getting access to players (which is part of the scouts’ jobs) and that seating behind the plate for scouts is very limited (true, although the park is small). I will say that they have always treated me very well, going back over a decade now. This is the first time in ages I didn’t go to Nashville to see them at home – I saw Bleday on the road, along with Austin Martin, who looks like a top ten pick for next year.

Soto: As great as Paddack has been in 2019…..Can he continue to succeed with only a fastball and a changeup?

Only throwing his curve 7-8 times a game.
Keith Law: I think so. 7 change, 7 command, 6 fastball, just a show-me breaker. Rare package, but it works.

Jake Lawson: The Rangers should be looking to move Minor at the deadline, right? What sort of return do you think Daniels should be looking for?
Keith Law: I say yes. Could get two prospects for him, right?

Michael: Do you have any thoughts on the use of cbd to treat anxiety?
Keith Law: If you believe it works, go for it. Clinical evidence is lacking.

FunInTheSun: Best sophomore or 2020 draft eligible player in college baseball?
Keith Law: Lot of candidates. Two named Martin – Austin I mentioned, Robby at Florida State (whoops, see below). Torkelson. Wilcox and Hancock at Georgia, Wilcox better for me right now. Saw Mitch Abel at the Future Stars event in Arizona over Labor Day and he’s a GUY. So is Zac Veen. JT Ginn is draft-eligible next year. I’m probably missing ten guys, too, since I don’t typically look a year ahead – those are mostly guys I’ve seen myself plus a few I’ve heard about from scouts. It looks *loaded*.

Steve: “Gotcha” people might be the worst. I feel like they are very unhappy in their lives.
Keith Law: It’s one of the worst parts of Twitter for me personally, although as a straight, white, cis male, I don’t get a fraction of the abuse some other folks get. But still, if that’s your instinct, to come be obnoxious to me because i didn’t sufficiently praise your favorite team’s prospect, save your breath.

Ricky Dempsey: My brother is very liberal and is all about letting his child make its own decisions (he gives the child clothes and toys targeted to both genders to play with). He wants to give his child the choice of whether he should be vaccinated. The child is almost 2 now. What is do you think is the best way to talk to discuss vaccination this with him without being offputting and infringing upon the child?
Keith Law: Point out to your brother that the child can only make that choice later if he’s not dead.
Keith Law: Also, it’s the fucking responsibility of a parent to make that choice.

Jessica: Robby Martin is a freshman at FSU and not draft eligible until 2021
Keith Law: Yep, you’re right, thanks. De Sedas too. Had Robby on the brain because I just edited the video I shot of him an hour ago. He can hit.

Ken (Cleveland): Very strange question but it is an issue I am thumbing through in my head. I consider myself somewhat of a blend between a conservative and liberal whatever that really means today. I believe in fiscal responsibility but I believe in investing in long term social programs that work to help those who need assistance. I am pro-choice and believe governments shouldn’t own our bodies. However, in a certain sense, they do. Prostitution is illegal. Ingestion of certain drugs is illegal. Mostly suicide and assisted suicide is illegal. Selling a kidney to pay for a surgery to save your child’s life is illegal. Literally, the government (if they brought back the draft) could force you to fight and die for your country or otherwise jail you. To me, the government clearly owns our bodies. Based on that, although again I am very pro-choice for an individual even if my own personal choice is pro-life, why should abortion be legal when these other things aren’t from an owning your body perspective.
Keith Law: The things you cite as illegal aren’t signs that the government “owns our bodies” but that we have a 250-year history of legislating morality. Why shouldn’t sex work be legal, as long as all parties are consenting? If we took the resources spent on arresting, trying, and imprisoning sex workers, and put that towards stopping sex trafficking, who would be worse off?

Gus (Portland, ME): I read at the beginning of the season about Trejyn Fletcher maybe being a 1st rounder. Now I see he’s maybe at the bottom of a top 100, if ranked at all. Did his move back to Maine cause the drop or something else?
Keith Law: He was never that kind of prospect. Not sure where that sort of hype started. Anyway, I think he ends up at school.

Tom: Does ASU have any legitimate MLB prospects on its roster besides Bishop?
Keith Law: Torkelson for next year. Marsh should go rounds 3-5 this year.
Keith Law: Time to wrap this up to write some things and also go out to dinner with my daughter – we are celebrating both of our birthdays tonight, since mine falls right before the draft (thanks, MLB) and hers was the night before my last trip and a crack-of-dawn flight. I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable Memorial Day weekend. Please don’t drive if you drink, and if you drive, be extra careful on the roads. I’ll be back with a mock draft Tuesday and another chat on Thursday. Thank you as always for reading.

My 2009 redraft piece and note on that draft’s first-round misses are both up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: (Brief delay – I’m just finishing up a call with a scout)
Keith Law: And when I die, put a soundsystem in my hearse. It’s Klawchat.

Joe: “Josh Bell can’t play. He’s not a good defender. He’s a big lump. He has bad agility, bad footwork. He can’t run. Supposedly he’s a big power threat, but he hit 12 home runs at first base. This is not a kid! This is his third year in the big leagues! I don’t think he’s got the ability to get better.” – Anonymous Scout, SI

Has any ever been owned harder?
Keith Law: I’ve said this on twitter – if that scout was real, he should not have a job any more. His evaluations were poor, but worse, he was borderline racist.

Sean: Keith, I have two questions regarding Matt McLain: 1) How far has he fallen as a draft prospect this year? 2) Do you think the Dbacks intentionally drafted him and undercut his asking price to either get him cheaper or not sign him, giving them an extra first round pick in this draft knowing they’d have a huge bonus pool?
Keith Law: He’s not in this draft, so I don’t think it’s fair to assess his draft stock now, when he’s got 25 months until he’s back in the draft. As for 2, no, that is absolutely, 100% inaccurate. They wanted to sign him.

Zach: The Pirates have had a suspect recent history in developing raw power prospects, so I remain cautious of Josh Bell. Should I drop the skepticism? I was burned by Pedro Alvarez!
Keith Law: No, you should buy in – I wrote in March that I thought they could have one or more breakout hitters thanks to the new coach/change in approach, and I think I mentioned Polanco specifically.

PhillyJake: As someone who’s given up red meat, are you a fan of either Impossible or Beyond?
Keith Law: Yes to both.

Bobby: When scouting a prospect, do you change seats between innings to view at bats or pitches from different angles, or is there one “best” angle from which to see everything? Thanks, klaw!
Keith Law: For a pitcher, I try to watch at least two innings behind the plate and at least one up the line from his open side. For a hitter, I just want to go up the line to watch his hands.

BigDaddeh: Are there certain orgs/GMs that get attached to prospect pedigree well after the shine has worn off? It seems like when there is a former top 10 draft pick who washes out and is a minor league FA, the same two or three teams have to take one last look at him.
Keith Law: It’s a good question without a firm answer. You might also say that former top 10 picks were often top 10 picks because of fundamental physical attributes that may still be present when they wash out.

Kevin: Do you think Jarren Duran has the potential to be an everyday player on a 1st division team?
Keith Law: Potential everyday player, yes. I don’t know how to answer that more specifically yet.

Mike G: Should we expect Jordan Balazovic to recieve helium during the midseason reranks? Numbers aside, his stuff looks very impressive.
Keith Law: He barely missed my top 100 this winter, so I think I had him in the right range then. He’ll move up due to so many graduations ahead of him. He could move up more now that he’s pitching at a higher level.

adrags: If one was to scout a stat line they may look at what Nate Pearson is doing and consider him one of the top pitching prospects in the game. In reality, what have you been hearing, and what do you think he is? Can he be an ace at the next level? His per inning numbers this year are off the charts, even when factoring in the level he is pitching at.
Keith Law: Two-time top 100 guy – he already was one of the top pitching prospects in the game, certainly. On the right night you will see two pitches that are 70s. But he’s also being used judiciously, to manage his innings, and that may skew the results too – he threw just two innings his last outing, a planned short start, and so he’s not taking on the same workload (or pacing himself, or turning lineups over three times) that most starter prospects would. Doesn’t make him a worse prospect in any way, just a factor to consider when watching his line scores.

Eduardo: Looking at your 2009 recaps, how surprised are you that Tim Wheeler never got a chance with the Rockies, or anyone for that matter?
Keith Law: If I had had more time, I would have looked into that one. It doesn’t make any sense to me.

Mike: What is Griffin Canning’s perceived ceiling, floor? Is he anything other than a potential mid rotation guy?
Keith Law: Potential #2 if healthy.

Blueberry Johnson: Hey KLaw, you going to be at PAX this year? I’m designing a board game that I hope to have ready by then… Would love to meet you and maybe get your thoughts??
Keith Law: PAX Unplugged, yes. Actually going to Origins for two days, Gen Con, and PAXU.

Ameen: Keith – you mentioned that your contract is soon up for renewal and I wanted to let you know that you’re the sole reason why I pay for the ESPN subscription. Hope that you will be justly rewarded soon. SSS aside, how do you assess Nick Allen’s current standing/future outlook? Could he be one of those prospects who somewhat flies under the radar and ends up being an average major leaguer? Is his ceiling of an average major leaguer a reasonable outlook at this point?
Keith Law: I like that kid quite a bit despite his size. He can run, he can really play short, and when I saw him in March I thought he had enough hand strength to hit for average without power, even as the pitching gets better. He’ll always be dinged for his height and concerns about future strength – the difference between him at the plate and Nick Madrigal is small.

Joe: Which bat profiles better: Riley, Huira, Rodgers?
Keith Law: Hiura.

Greg: Any belief that Austin Riley can handle LF this season?
Keith Law: Don’t see why not but I’d rather see him get more reps at 3b.

Mason: I think we made a mistake by forgetting about Aramis Ademan after last year
Keith Law: He’s hitting .255 (with a lot of BB) while repeating the level, and it’s still a lot of weak groundouts. He’s only 20 so I am in no way burying him, but you’re getting way ahead of yourself.

Jon: When you do your re-draft, are you going straight best (in hindsight) player available? Eg/ would the Braves have taken Brandon Belt with Freeman already in the system?
Keith Law: I don’t consider the teams drafting at all for that.

Amed Rosario : What do you think of me? Seems like the bat is coming around but now defense has been iffy
Keith Law: Cautiously optimistic – early days, small sample, but he’s young and showing real across the board progress. No idea what’s going on with his defense.

Ralph: Do any of the Yankee fill-ins- Urshela, Tauchman, Thairo- project as a MLB regulars or at least solid bench contributors?
Keith Law: The Yankees seem to have some sort of woo with these hitting castoffs they find, but I will say I liked Estrada as a prospect before he got shot, and Urshuela was a prospect once upon a time.

Robby: Did Anthony Kay’s stuff jump or something?
Keith Law: No, stuff was great last year too, but he tired a little bit and was also just back from TJ. Fully recovered now. Very promising.

TC: New Of Monsters and Men album coming soon. Have you heard the first single & have any thoughts on it?
Keith Law: Really liked it.

Arnold: The Giants top pitching prospect, Shaun Anderson, made a good debut the other day. Is he good enough to be a top of the rotation starter or are we looking at #3 or #4 guy?
Keith Law: Back of the rotation.

Plz: Giolito. I want to believe but I’ve been hurt before. Can I embrace it yet?
Keith Law: I’m in, but then again, I’ve probably been his strongest advocate as a prospect.

AGirlHasNoName: Been thinking about the Ben Zobrist news, and how impossible it is to keep stuff private, people seem to love to consume the scandalous stuff, but does that mean someone has to provide it to them?
Keith Law: I don’t think this should be any of our business whatsoever. If a player does something criminal, that’s one thing, but the private lives of players should be off limits.

Jordan: Any chance Corbin Carroll falls to the Mets at #12?
Keith Law: Nonzero chance, but very unlikely IMO.

Andrew: Best way to cook a chicken spatchcock style with what seasonings?
Keith Law: Just salt it heavily, set it on a rack in the sheet pan, and pour water in the pan itself so you don’t set off your smoke alarm.

Dave: When do you expect Baum (UNC) to come off the board? Been the Friday guy for UNC this year, shown good velo with a good chance but kinda lackluster off speed. That’s my .02 couch analysis
Keith Law: Third round … I think? College arms may fly off the board this year because there are so few real first-round onezs.

Mike: Hey Keith, after viewing your top prospects for the upcoming MLB draft I noticed that Vanderbilt Ace Drake Fellows was not listed. Where would you rank him/ what round(s) (if any) would be the range for him?
Keith Law: Third to fifth rounds.

Dave: What makes the time travel in Doctor Who tolerable if it’s a dealbreaker for you going to see Endgame? Asking as a fan of both
Keith Law: It’s baked into the premise of Doctor Who. It was tacked on as a plot device in Endgame.
Keith Law: Doctor Who is a time traveler by definition. Same as Connie Willis’ time travel novels – they are inherent to the stories.

Mike: How high are you on the bat of Dodgers Will Smith?
Keith Law: Above average regular if not more. I think the power he showed last year is real, the result of a tangible swing change.

JG: That Balazovic pick of yours is looking good. Kis has been nearly lights out
Keith Law: No, some guy on twitter told me I’m never right about anything.

Andrew: Does Triston Casas really have 70/80 raw power?
Keith Law: Not what I saw form him in HS.

Joe: What do you make of Christian Walker? I thought he was more of a AAAA type player going into this season and so far he has done way more than I expected. The .380 BABIP and 30% strikeout rate have me questioning how sustainable it is though.
Keith Law: It’s not sustainable.

Mark: I suffer from depression and anxiety and I have a big problem with public speaking. Any ways to overcome this?
Keith Law: I’m not a therapist, and that’s something you should discuss with yours … but I can speak to my own experience, that I have found public speaking became easier with practice, and that I still experience a lot of anxiety right before starting that fades quickly once I’m in front of the crowd.

Ethan: Just a comment . . . I have learned a ton about baseball and other things from you. And while I don’t always agree with your stance(s) (I am a strong Christian), I will say that I am most impressed with you as a dad and your care for your daughter, especially as it is clear the high priority she is in your life. I have an 11 y/o daughter dealing for the first time with some mental health stuff, and I think we need more dads like you. Thanks!
Keith Law: Good luck to you and your daughter – it sounds like you’re on top of it, and getting her real medical help now could avoid a lot of problems for her in her later teen years.

Tom: Hey Keith, it seems like the Orioles actually have some pitching talent in the minors.. Rodriguez, Hall, Kremer, Knight, Lowther, Akin, even Harvey. Is that reason to be optimistic, or just wishful thinking?
Keith Law: I’ll see Hall tonight, and have a post up on him, Kremer, Sedlock, and Bishop tomorrow or this weekend. I don’t think all of those guys are starters, but they have some bulk pitching on the way.

Keith: Does Moncada being in the 99th percentile for exit velocity make you believe his production is sustainable? 3-4 WAR season?
Keith Law: I believe his ability to make hard contact is real, and that he’ll continue to strike out at a rate that makes a WAR higher than that unlikely.

Andrew: Any 80 raw power guys in this year’s draft like Nolan Gorman was last year? How about 70-75 raw power guys? Your tools assessments on draft prospects is what helped me determine Nolan Gorman should be ahead of Casey Mize who’s been a stud.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t put Gorman over Mize, FWIW. Hinds has 80 raw, and swings and misses more than Gorman. Bishop probably has 70+ raw. Bleday too.

ck: First round in 2009 looks historically bad in retrospect. Can you think of any worse?
Keith Law: 2000 is the gold standard for bad first rounds, I think.

Josh Nelson: Hey Keith. Andrew Vaughn fits what the profile of who the White Sox have drafted since Nick Hostetler took over. How likely do you think they go in a different direction by selecting CJ Abrams?
Keith Law: At this point, I don’t have enough information to answer that other than to say I believe they are looking at both players, and aware that Rutschman could slip to them.

John Farrell: Can a guy who swings and misses as much as Chavis project out positively? Also, do you think he can stay at 2B longer-term?
Keith Law: 2b would really surprise me.

Eric: From a fair labor stand point, what’s the best replacement to a draft? Is there a way to do it that protects labor and keeps things competitive to avoid too much going to one team? Or am I overstating competition issues?
Keith Law: I don’t care much if at all about competition issues – I want players to be paid what they’re worth, not what some artificial regime says they can get. League officials and owners have so successfully brainwashed fans (not you specifically) into believing that drafts are necessarily to maintain competitive balance that fans respond negatively to discussions of how players like Zion W are exploited by drafts, and forget that MLB instituted its draft to stop the “bonus baby” phenomenon of the late 1950s/early 60s.

Mom’s spaghetti: Assessments of Yordan Alverez vary…what do you think of him? Can he at least hit…and I think he really needs to HIT to be successful, right? Any prospect of him playing 1B at all or just OF?
Keith Law: Well below average in LF or 1b. Probably a DH ideally. Should hit.
Keith Law: So your second point, that he needs to hit more to be valuable relative to his position, is accurate.

Brandon: Good to see Mitchell White back and healthy this season. Can you see him getting starts in LA this year if he keeps this up?
Keith Law: Yes, or in relief.

Redefined racism?: Hey Klaw, not trying to troll, but … can you explain how Anonymous Scout up top is “borderline racist”? I keep rereading it and I don’t see it. Thanks.
Keith Law: Read the whole SI piece. I didn’t say those specific comments were racist.

Huge KLaw Fan: Hi Kieth, do you think that you rate Hiura higher than the others as some sort of white guilt? Like you said in the Bell question, that guy was definitely racist towards Bell. But do you think you may go too far the other way and subconsciously try to be not-racist and like Hiura more than you should? Thanks! I second only having insider because of you.
Keith Law: This would be a great argument if Hiura were white, which he is not.
Keith Law: Also, j/k, it’s a stupid fucking argument.

Matthew: Do minor league results ever drive prospect tools grades? Or are those always based directly on scouting observations?
Keith Law: No, results do not determine tools, ever.

ck: When do you sous vide as opposed to any other cooking method?
Keith Law: When a precise internal temperature is paramount, or when I want to cook something a long time at a low temperature without using the oven.

Butts: Feasible for the White Sox be able to grab Abrams at a savings and float a mid 1st round talent to 45?
Keith Law: Probably not. Abrams’ floor is pick 6 or so.

Amari: Is Lodolo’s stock enhanced by simply being the best arm in a pitching-weak draft class? 1st round sure, but doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who would’ve gone top 10 in years past
Keith Law: I think so. I think the industry would disagree.

j: Are you surprised that Anthony Seigler isn’t on a full-season team? Figured a player with his skills would have broken camp with the Yanks low-A club Charleston
Keith Law: He’s been hurt.

Ryan: Corbin Carroll reminds me a lot of Alek Thomas. Could you please compare and contrast them? Thank you!
Keith Law: Similar but Carroll has more pop.

Steve: In your updated top 50, you didnt have Austin Riley. Other than your question about his bat speed, why did you keep him out of the top 50?
Keith Law: I’m not sure what list you mean; the only updated top 50 I’ve posted recently was for the draft.

Lee: It’s pretty obvious that our dear leader would be looking at prison time right now if he weren’t president. Should Congress do the right/moral thing and impeach? Or should they hold off on the chance that it may lead to voter backlash and actually lead to 4 more years of this buffoon? A very difficult choice IMO
Keith Law: I don’t think any Congress should delay impeachment for political expediency. If you think an elected official has committed some crime worthy of impeachment, then you should do something about it.

mike sixel: I don’t think I’ve ever seen your thoughts…..do you like Dr. Who?
Keith Law: I’m a fan through two seasons at least.

Bill: Jose Israel Garcia was a near miss guy for you. Had a good 2nd half in warmer weather and seems to be maintaining that this season. Is he a guy worth monitoring?
Keith Law: Only 18 games so far, so tiny sample, but yes, a guy worth monitoring. Chance for high contact with good defense.

Sean: Ketel Marte is showing legitimate raw power from both sides of the plate, though he still has issues hitting enough fly balls to take it to the next level. Are you buying on him at 25 years old?
Keith Law: He was on my breakouts list for 2018. I have a bad habit of being a year early on those.

Kevin: Do you think Devers can have a 300/420/550 slashline either this year or in the near future?
Keith Law: That’s MVP level … I love the kid, believe fully in his bat, but that seems like a best case scenario and is way out of reach for 2019.

Greg: Whens the next mock?
Keith Law: I think the day after Memorial Day. Big Board next week, ACC blog post, then mock.

Jordan: Does Jackson Rutledge have serious ace potential?
Keith Law: No.

Conine: I’m going to Marlin’s Park for the first time this weekend. Anything worth checking out while I’m there?
Keith Law: Lol no.

Dr. Bob: You talk about watching players from different angles. HS shouldn’t be a problem, but do you ever run into problems at colleges or minor league parks? Or do they accommodate scouts?
Keith Law: Usually fine – high schools are actually more of a problem because sometimes you can’t get down one or both lines. That’s also an issue at Duke – I won’t scout a pitcher there because of it.

silvpak: jeren kendall is now 23 and still at A ball, with no perceptible improvement in his approach at the plate, other than walking more (which doesn’t really matter, given he’s hitting under .200). two and a half years in – was this a wasted pick?
Keith Law: It was a decent gamble that isn’t working out.

Garrett: What are you hearing on Josh Lowe? Anything moving the needle there?
Keith Law: Great athlete, power/speed combo, hitting .226 with lots of swing and miss so no, needle is steady.

addoeh: Any new Chicago eats from scouting Priester?
Keith Law: Only one: My daughter tagged along and she wanted to try deep dish, so we went to Pequod for lunch before the game, and it was … well, she loved it.

Dave: If Trout’s the best player of the last 50 years… does that mean you think Bonds’s late-career surge should be discounted? Bonds averaged 11 WAR in his late-30’s prime.
Keith Law: Bonds had 50.3 WAR through his age-27 season. Trout will clear 70.

Often Sad: How do you separate seemingly good people from their horrible opinions? This weekend, my father-in law and his sister were really lobbing it back and forth with horrible takes, such as “AOC is the next Hitler, I’m serious,” and constant babble about “Fucking Democrats” ruining the country, even though I’m not sure an actual point was made. These are the people in my life, like it or not, and are what I think good people, but sometimes it’s hard to see that.
Keith Law: Sorry to hear that, but my only solution is to cut those people out of my life.

Joe: Fair to be a bit disappointed in Gleyber Torres so far? I was expecting better plate disciple than he has shown. Outside of games against Baltimore, he hasn’t played well.
Keith Law: He’s 22 with a 118 wRC+ … I don’t understand why you’d be disappointed in that.

Bob Pollard: How’s Wander Franco looking this year? Still #1 prospect-y?
Keith Law: He is the #1 prospect in the minors right now.

Jameson: Do you tend to grade trades purely on the factors at the time, or is hindsight a fair way to grade trades?
Keith Law: We can discuss whether a trade worked out for one side, but it is not fair to criticize a trade based on factors that no one could have known at the time of the deal.

Hinkie: WVU LHP Nick Snyder isn’t getting much attention, but is having a great junior season. What do you know about him, and how can he go in the draft?
Keith Law: Not a draft prospect, sorry.

Josh: What is your guess onthe root cause of the Phillies recent draft woes? Klentak has done a fantastic job, overdelivering on this re-build. Is this more a scouting issue or driven by guidance from ownership?
Keith Law: I don’t know – and BTW, it’s really the first round. They’ve botched several first-round picks, at least the three outfielders (Randolph, Moniak at 1, Haseley). Whether that is people or process I do not know.

Michael: Did the Angels know what they had in Trout that summer?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jack: Even if the consensus is that Zack Collins can’t catch at a major league level, is there a chance the Sox call him up this year and let him try anyway?
Keith Law: There’s some risk to doing that with a catcher that isn’t present at other positions – viz. that it will adversely affect the pitchers he’s catching. So I think not.

Mike: Keith, with your travels & your love of coffee, do you ever stop for a quick cup somewhere or always coffee houses? Any favorite quick stops?
Keith Law: No, nothing I would say I like.

wickethewok: Is this the power that Josh Bell was originally projected for or just an early season fluke?
Keith Law: This is the power I projected for him. Whether it’s real or a fluke is another question … I think it’s real, that the Pirates as a whole are encouraging hitters to drive the ball more even at some cost of contact.

Huh?: Is there any logical point that could be made to call Cortez the next Hitler? Is one of her main proposals genocide?
Keith Law: This is from the same people who think the Nazis were socialist because they used the word in their party’s name (they were textbook fascists, not socialists).

J: What is your favorite guitar riff?
Keith Law: The opening riff to Crazy Train is absolutely brilliant, and fun to play; Rhoads’ classical background showed better on that riff than anywhere else. Nothing in music makes me sadder than to think of the songwriting we lost when he died.

Ron: HI Keith- Buxton is healthy this year. Just sayin’! He looks so much more relaxed this year, even only if it is a SSS. His arm is as good as his speed and if he just hits .250-270, he is a star. There is some serious pop in that bat when he squares one.
Keith Law: I thought he was a star in 2017, then he was hurt most of last year, and now he’s healthy and what do you know, he’s a star again.

Michael: Do you ever scout a player who looks the part including the swing and bat speed, but just doesn’t put up numbers? I’m thinking Josh Vitters
Keith Law: Vitters is often my go-to example for this – beautiful swing, ton of power, and in the games he could never figure out when to swing and when to take.

OC Joe: What’s the ceiling for Soroka if he stays healthy? His ERA (duh) won’t be this low all season, but the only real negative in this SSS is a higher than expected walk total
Keith Law: Health is the #1 concern, obviously. Second is whether he can continue to dominate LHB as he has, despite not really using his CH and a low arm slot. If those stay true, #2 starter for me.

Joe: Keith, why do some minor league games start so early during the week, like at 9:30 or 10?
Keith Law: Schoolkids’ special. I love those games – I can go to one and be home in time to pick my daughter up from the bus.

James: Why do prospects generally lack a quality changeup? Hard pitch to master, or less sexy to have than a slider or curve?
Keith Law: In high school, especially, they almost never need one – the axiom is that, when you throw 95, throwing a HS hitter a changeup instead of your fastball is doing him a favor.

Andy: Do teams have portable Trackman things? Like can they go a couple hours early and set things up in a high school stadium to get spin rate on a high school pitcher in game?
Keith Law: Yes. Rapsodo makes a portable device teams use for some of those measurements.

Jonas: Keith, is Urshela’s performance sustainable? And at this point, is Luke Voit for real?
Keith Law: I think Voit is for real, given the details we have now (Lindsey Adler wrote about it for the Athletic) on changes to his swing and approach. Also, Yankee woo. I’m telling you.

Clifton Law : So Keith, based on your earlier Urshela response, you think there is something extra to putting on the pinstripes
Keith Law: I actually think they have some developmental ideas that haven’t generally spread out to other teams, yet, and that they’ve taken very good advantage of this temporary edge.

Harold: I, for one, can’t wait until the next election when a Democrat can be elected and the death in the streets, innocent people being locked up for not being white supremacists, and puppy kicking will finally end.
Keith Law: It’s really stupid to send me this shit from your work computer, buddy.

La Pantera: Do you think the Rodon, Jones, Dunning and Kopech injuries should make the White Sox reconsider their organizational pitching approach, more than an annual self-scouting review would do? Could this just be normal for clubs and freak occurrence that it’s happening to higher profile players for the Sox?
Keith Law: Nah. Rodon had a tough delivery and was badly overused in college, but also had one of the best sliders in amateur history. Kopech wasn’t even in their system all that long and almost nobody who throws that hard (other than Verlander?) can maintain it for long without elbow trouble. Bad set of coincidences.

Joe: Zac Gallen a potential Ace?
Keith Law: No.

Erik: you stated in your re-draft post that Trout would have went to the Yankees at pick 25 but wouldn’t it have been likely that the Angels would have snagged him at 24 instead of 25
Keith Law: If you’re assuming the Yankees kept that pick at 25, you should also assume the Mets kept pick 24.

Dan: It’s 2019 and some Boston sports media and plenty of fans were actually complaining that Cora took out Chris Sale when he did (108 pitches) because he could have gone for 20 strikeouts. Ntm, his injury issues the last two years.
Keith Law: I’m shocked (not shocked).

Bob: How would you rate Daniel Lynch’s secondary pitches?
Keith Law: Will write up on Friday. I am all in, though.

Tyler: Who has a higher ceiling: Fried or Soroka?
Keith Law: Fried.

addoeh: At least your daughter liked Pequods. I’ve probably recommended it a time or two here.
Keith Law: It’s not that it was bad – I just don’t like that style of pizza.

PD: Pretty big assumption that person actually has a job.
Keith Law: Oh I know exactly where he works now. And he’s been insulting me for a few weeks here.

Mike: At this point, do you think Drew Rasmussen can still start? The stuff is great, but the injury history still making me think he’s better off in the bullpen.
Keith Law: Two time TJ guy … I wouldn’t even chance it.

Mom’s spaghetti: What do the Astros do with Fisher, Tucker, Alvarez, and to a lesser extent Reed (seem to have ruined him)? Fisher almost has to be in a trade this summer but does he have enough value? Also, would you sell high on Alvarez? His stock can’t get higher!
Keith Law: Tucker and Alvarez would have some real trade value now; the others don’t seem to have much at all. I know they shopped Fisher in bigger deals this winter but he wasn’t enough to lead a package.

wickethewok: If the the 2009 Nationals were given Storen’s stats from 2010-2015, would they still make the pick? I know by most reasonable measures, including yours, he is a bust, but was this what the Nationals expected?
Keith Law: I didn’t call him a bust – that was an editor’s decision – and it’s not possible to separate the pick from the fact that it was unprotected and they had to have a predraft deal in place. (Of course, Trout would have signed for slot there, no question.)

Ozzie Albies: Have I ever seen a pitch I don’t like?
Keith Law: Pitch, or contract offer?

addoeh: What are the odds Keuchel, and perhaps Kimbrel, get close to their original asking price once the draft pick compensation goes away after the draft?
Keith Law: Keuchel more likely. Kimbrel I think gets one-year offers.

JR: Should the Mets aggressively be trying to give Conforto one of those extensions that are all the rage these days? I would.
Keith Law: I would too. Not sure he’d take one, but worth trying.

Dave: Sorry I should have been more specific: I was assuming Trout wouldn’t suddenly improve markedly in his late 30’s for, y’know, whatever reason. If he does, no argument, but I was wondering if you were assuming a similar path, or discounting Bonds, or really thought Trout was so much better young that he could reach 162 with a normal aging pattern. I’ll take your answer as meaning the latter.
Keith Law: I don’t think we can ever predict anyone to have Bonds’ aging pattern, but if there were a player alive today whom you might predict to have it, isn’t it Trout? Plus he might enter his 30s with a substantial WAR ‘lead.’

Sean: Gonsolin ceiling?
Keith Law: He and Balazovic were both on this list of : prospects who just missed my top 100.

AJ: Balazovic! Great call on your part. Do you see him as an above average starter and is it crazy to think we could see him before the end of 2020?
Keith Law: Above average starter but not in the majors before 2021.

Dr. Bob: One unknown factor in the redraft discussion is how a team may have mishandled a player’s development. It is possible that some ‘busts’ might have been solid major league regulars given a different course of development, maybe with a different team, right?
Keith Law: Absolutely. I wonder if Ackley’s career is different if he doesn’t go right to AA.

Zander: Hey Keith – any recent non-fiction recommendations?
Keith Law: Bad Blood, on the Theranos scandal.

Bobby: Best way to cope with death? Burying a family member tomorrow and it’s been rough.
Keith Law: See a counselor if you can. I don’t know any good way to cope, but I know lots of bad ways and it’s important to try not to fall into those traps. I’m very sorry for your loss.

Thornton Mellon: You ever read the Three Body Problem?
Keith Law: Yep, three years ago: my review.

Drew: I’m having trouble cutting activities out of my life that I’m pretty sure I don’t actually like or enjoy, but just kind of doing them out of obligation or fear of change; any opinions on how to stop?
Keith Law: Got me wondering what you might mean, but in the absence of that information, what about simply prioritizing other activities you do like or enjoy, so that the choice goes from “not doing X” to “doing something instead of X?”

Thornton Mellon: Is the new Tommy La Stella legit? You really see a 4-5 WAR player here?
Keith Law: It seems incredibly hard to believe, given the absence of any such power in his track record, but there’s also nothing obviously fluky in his numbers (other than the sample size).

alex: You mentioned the possiblity of the O’s not drafting Adley R. to save money on tougher signs. Doesn’t AZ have a lot of pool money and picks before the Os 2nd pick to scoop up these folks? Any candidates who are worthy tough signs?
Keith Law: Lots of HS guys who’d be worth it but the O’s can’t set their hearts on any one guy, because of Arizona specifically.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – more phone work to do before the top 100, plus another ESPN project for draft week that needs my attention. Thank you all, as always, for all of your questions. I don’t know my exact schedule next week, other than that I’m planning to hit the ACC tournament briefly – I don’t think I’ll be revisiting the SEC tournament, held in Alabama, any time soon after the law they just passed – and may not be home for a Thursday chat. I’ll keep everyone posted on social media, though. Thanks again.

My first mock draft for 2019 went up on Monday, and I have a blog post up on JJ Bleday and other Vandy/Louisville prospects.

Keith Law: Go and run yourself a million miles. Klawchat.

Trevor: Casey Mize is the best college pitching prospect since __________?
Keith Law: Gerrit Cole.

Bob: Forest Whitley has been mediocre in his short starts and terrible in his relief appearances, so bad he’s not even building up IP. Whatever the Astros plan, it doesn’t seem to be working on any level. What would you suggest?
Keith Law: I don’t draw that conclusion. It’s five appearances, characterized mostly by more home runs – and they’re using the MLB ball in AAA. Unless he’s hurt I’m unconcerned. Steady on.

Mark: In what order would you place these, Shake Shack,5 guys,In N Out ?
Keith Law: I no longer eat beef, so this is based on my memories from beyond two years ago – Shake Shack > In n Out > Five Guys.

Trevor: At what point can an umpire call a balk/ball on a pitcher for stopping mid windup with no one on base? Ryu did it multiple times (4-5) in his last start where it got to the point of annoying. Would the ump call it if Inciarte squared around it bunt and then Ryu stopped?
Keith Law: It’s not a balk if there’s no one on, right?

addoeh: I saw recently that you said weren’t a fan of Moby Dick. I have to say, though, I think that it is some of John Bonham’s best work.
Keith Law: Agreed. Melville got better treatment than he deserved.

Aaron C.: SSS *and* zero gravity home field *and* “scouting the stat line” notwithstanding; I am ALL IN on Jorge Mateo. Am I a crackpot?
Keith Law: Not a crackpot, but 1) the power definitely isn’t real and 2) he’s repeating triple-A, just now in a better ballpark. But he also has long had real ability, especially his speed, that we can’t ignore.

Kyle: People seem to be making a big deal about you taking Yordan out of your top 100 based on the season he is having. Even without much defensive value, the bat seems quite impactful. Do you want a redo yet?
Keith Law: No, I don’t, and that’s really the wrong way to ask that question.

Elton: Is Alejandro Kirk a name to monitor? Bat seems special and particularly intriguing at catcher.
Keith Law: Yes, he was in my Toronto org writeup as a real prospect, and who doesn’t love a fat catcher? I’m all in on the fat catchers.

Nick: Daniel Norris is finally getting regular starts. What are your thoughts on how he’s looked so far? Do you think he can stay in the rotation long-term throwing this many curveballs?
Keith Law: Fangraphs only has him throwing the curveball 6% of the time, the lowest rate of his four pitches, so I’m not sure if you’re just conflating that and the slider or if you mean something else. I do think he has to be offspeed-heavy, maybe more so than he has been, because his secondary stuff is good but his fastball is below-average now. I also think he has the offspeed weapons and the aptitude to be an average or better starter even averaging just 90 mph.

Bookz: Keith, big fan of your fiction recommendations and I wanted to pass one back. Based on your “Swamplandia” recommendation, I looked for similar authors and hit on Amy Bloom’s “Lucky Us.” Strong authorial voice, with a bit less of Russell’s sense of impending dread. Great read!
Keith Law: Thanks! I’ll add it to the endless list.

Manny: If you were KC, would you take Witt Jr, Vaughn, Bleday, or Abrams at 1.2?
Keith Law: When I rank players, that’s my ‘board.’ So my #1, Rutschman, is gone in your scenario, and then I’d take my #2, Vaughn.

Nomah: I know he’s still really young…but is this kind of what Mazara is? Everyone says they see more potential in him. What might it take to bring it out? Different hitting coach/approach? Change of scenery (even though the ball jumps out of his current park)?
Keith Law: He’s still putting the ball on the ground too often, and not getting deep enough into counts. I don’t know what will bring that out but I am positive the Rangers have tried to get him to make adjustments along those lines.

Ben: When young hitters come up, struggle, and then need to “make adjustments,” what does that even mean? It seems like the easy answer for fans to grasp is that they need to be more selective and not swing at sliders down and away. There has to be more going on, but as a fan we rarely hear what those “adjustments” actually are. Are there common things young players need to do, or is it too individualized?
Keith Law: Hah, there’s the phrase in question. It can be as simple as recognizing that pitchers will attack the hitter in a certain way because he’s shown some vulnerability, and then changing his approach so he’s not chasing whatever pitch(es) he’s getting. It can be more significant, like mechanical changes, from adding a trigger to changing the stride or setup to adjusting hand positions. It’s a catch-all term.

Dana: Domingo German seems to have figured out how to throw strikes. Still a reliever for you?
Keith Law: His command/control was never the reason I thought he’d end up in relief.

bryan: Hi Keith – I know that you had projected a college bat to the A’s in your first mock draft. Do you think that they could still look to target high ceiling players like Hampton, Toglia and Paris in the first couple of rounds? Thanks and keep up the great work.
Keith Law: Toglia’s not a high-ceiling guy but I do not believe they’re definitely taking a college bat. They could certainly go after some ceiling; I did not hear them on Hampton at all, FWIW.

Griz: Greatly enjoy your work. Any thoughts on the board game, “Planet”? Just heard of it and wondered if you’ve played it
Keith Law: On my list for the summer. Blue Orange did offer me a review copy in advance of Earth Day but I couldn’t get to it in time for that with other games I’d already lined up to review. Hoping I’ll get to Planet before GenCon.

Tyson: What do you think about Joe Ross? Starter? If so, could he be a trade piece for a solid BP arm to a team that isn’t “win now” and could let him develop as a starter?
Keith Law: Starter if he can stay healthy. That’s been an issue since he signed, though.

Patrick: Keith, are there certain college stadiums you enjoy visiting more than others? Ones that have a great view/ambience/sightlines, etc?
Keith Law: It’s more about the cities than the ballparks. I love going to Nashville, Louisville, Oklahoma City, so any scouting trip that gets me to places like those works for me.

Patrick: Hey Keith, one thought from last week leads to this week’s question. On your dislike for superhero movie violence, does that also extend to horror films? I struggle with both of those tropes, and wonder if you view them through the same lens?
Keith Law: Even more so. I watch almost no horror films, and if there’s gore I’m just out. The idea of finding pleasure in watching even fictional depictions of graphic violence is abhorrent to me. I’ve said this before, but if you just arrested everyone who goes to see torture-porn films like Hostel on opening nights, you’d probably grab half the future serial killers in the country.
Keith Law: (I don’t think the films make people into killers, btw.)

Luke: Does Theo keeping in contact with Russell’s ex-wife do anything for you? If the victim appears to be accepting of Addison returning (meaning, hopefully he’s been sincere and taken steps to better himself), does that make this awful situation any less heavy?
Keith Law: Nothing will matter until Russell takes some actual responsibility here instead of talking about this as a “challenge” for him to overcome.

SGz: What do you see as the biggest benefit of seeing a player live versus tape?
Keith Law: Additional angles, and seeing the ‘small’ things that a player does – setting up before plays, watching him warm up, etc.

Clark: Is people flipping out over the OK sign proof that we do indeed live in clownworld?
Keith Law: Calling it “the OK sign” when it has gone from dumb internet joke to actual symbol used by white nationalists might make you the clown, Clark.

Matty K : Re: Moncada. Last year his strikeouts were in large part due to taking called third strikes on “border line pitches” (I.e. pitches within 1 inch or less of the zone). He led baseball with 60, trout was next with 41. (1) curious if this issue is more “fixable” than pure swing and miss issues (2) also when does the detriment in the drop in walk rate overshadow the benefits of less strikeouts from a more aggressive approach? Thanks as always for the thoughtful insight.
Keith Law: I don’t have a good answer for (2). For (1), it probably depends on the player. Swing choices and pitch recognition are different skills that have different underlying features – visual recognition/decision-making versus hand-eye coordination. I imagine that will differ by player.

Danny: Any reports on Spencer Howard before he got put on the shelf?
Keith Law: Stuff has been very good, again, was told the arm issue was minor.

Julie: Do you see any reason why the Orioles wouldn’t take Rutschman? Seems like a no-brainer, and Mike Elias seems like a reasonable guy. Are there any doubts that he’s the #1 pick?
Keith Law: He’s not the clear 1-1 guy in my mind. He’s the best prospect, but the gap between him and Vaughn is small, and the question for Elias is whether he’d rather have Rutschman + good HS prospect (at pick 42) or Vaughn + better HS prospect because he can cut a better deal with Vaughn at 1.

Brett: Do you believe the top 3 players in the upcoming draft, in whatever order, are Rutschman , Witt, Vaughan? Could Vandy OF Bleday move into the top 3?
Keith Law: I ranked them all here: https://klaw.me/2vrX6tV

Jeff: Sorry buddy, people have a right to refuse vaccines for any reason they choose- personal, private, or religious.
Keith Law: That may be true, pal, but you don’t have a right to refuse vaccines FOR YOUR CHILD, any more than you have a right to deny your child medicine, food, shelter, or other care. Do you want the right to beat your child too?
Keith Law: Also, it’s not even clear you have the right you think you do, except in your own head. Courts have ruled the government can force vaccinations during outbreaks and epidemics.

Fitz: Do you think Vlad Jr. early struggles (ie not seeing anything to hit) could be solved by moving him up from the 5th spot?
Keith Law: I don’t think where a player hits, other than batting in front of the pitcher, has any effect on his performance.

Greg: Any new top 10 buzz since your mock?
Keith Law: Not in the last 72 hours.

Rick: Office door closed with sign that reads “In Webinar – Do Not Disturb”. Actually just my weekly escape aka Klawchat. No question – just a simple thanks!
Keith Law: I’ll write a note to your boss.

Aaron C.: Earlier this year, you wrote that the A’s might have something with Nick Allen if he could get on base more. I *know* it’s silly to get excited about three weeks at Stockton (.356 OBP!), so should I follow up with you in, what, 2020? 2021?
Keith Law: It’s promising but I think double-A is the best test.

Sam: Do you allow your daughter to curse? My younger son has finally learned curse words, and I’m torn on how to react.
Keith Law: I never did much to hide those words from her in songs, but pointed out that some people don’t like those words and she shouldn’t use them (this was years ago). So far, she hasn’t started, but that could change at any time.

Guest: So what are your great American novels? It is tough because we are not talking about best I think but something different
Keith Law: I think Beloved is the best choice – I don’t see how you tell the American story without acknowledging such a massive piece of our history and cultural heritage. I understand why The Great Gatsby is often chosen, but I think it’s too narrow a slice of our past. Absalom, Absalom! does a better job of covering more ground – it’s the history of the American south, told through the rise and fall of one family – although it’s such an arduous read that I think it leaves a lot of people behind. Empire Falls is a dark horse choice for me, and maybe a little too narrow, but the way Russo interweaves the setting of a declining mill town into the lives of his characters makes it a very distinctive American story.

Andrew: What’s the best way to exercise for someone with mental health issues (depression, anxiety)?
Keith Law: There’s no best way. Every doctor or therapist I’ve ever talked to about this has simply said exercise is good. So whatever you can get yourself to do regularly is fine.

Mark: Love the brief guitar shows you do sometimes. I played a bit in high school ages ago and now I’m looking to get back into it. My question is if you’re self-taught, and if so what are some resources online that you’ve used to help yourself learn?
Keith Law: I taught myself in high school with magazines like the old Guitar for the Practicing Musician, then would find tabs on alt.guitar.tab and the like. I use Ultimate-Guitar a lot now (I pay for the pro tabs) but still do a lot by ear.

Eric: What is Sixto Sanchez’ ceiling? When should he be expected to be up; Sept? 2020?
Keith Law: Has to stay healthy for a full season before we think about him coming to the majors. I think it’s #2-3 ceiling in reality despite the huge velocity.

Cade: Austin Riley has been on an insanely hot streak for the past week or two. Have you come around on him as a prospect? What do you think his ultimate upside is?
Keith Law: A hot week or two doesn’t change my opinion of a prospect. He was in the right place on my top 100, with the same strengths (power, defense) and weaknesses (bat speed) today he had two months ago.

John: Does James Karinchak have a chance to be an impact reliever in MLB?
Keith Law: A chance, yes, not a large one. History of wildness and I believe shoulder issues.

Andrew: What’s the difference between Nolan Gorman leading up to the draft last year and Rece Hinds leading up to the draft this year?
Keith Law: Gorman’s power was bigger, and he had hit better the previous summer and fall than Hinds did.

Eric: You subpoenaed me to be here, but I’m just not gonna show up, cause, laws are fake, apparently.
Keith Law: Yep. And an entire party has decided it doesn’t care about laws as long as they can retain power.

Michael: With SSS, it’s amazing how batting averages and ERA’s can change so quickly. Fiers ERA went down by 1.4 in his no hitter. At what point in the season do stats not fluctuate so much off of one start or one week?
Keith Law: It’s gradual, but that is one reason I’ve always said Memorial Day is a good time to start looking at current-season stats in the majors – by then, we can still be in SSS territory, but the daily fluctuations are smaller.

Chris: Cal Quantrill was throwing hard Tuesday but control seemed iffy. Do you see him as a rotation piece long-term?
Keith Law: More interesting as a rotation piece now that he’s 92-96 again. Didn’t think he could start when he was 90-92 like he was last year. Still some concerns – it’s not a high quality FB, breaking ball isn’t great – but now he has a chance.

Joe: Sorry if I missed it, but did you do a write up on Deivi Garcia?
Keith Law: No, that’s in my back pocket till I see some more minor league games. I don’t usually wait this long but I try to avoid blog posts that are too short because of the subscription format.

Eric: Do you understand what Jeter et. al are doing with the Marlins, or are they just destined to last place for the rest of time?
Keith Law: I do understand it, I just don’t entirely agree with it.

Tim: Why was Kyle Hendricks overlooked as a prospect? Purely the radar gun?
Keith Law: That’s a major reason, but it’s not like he had some knockout breaking ball too. He’s an extreme outlier. That’s very fun, but if you figure out a way to identify the next Hendricks among all the minor leaguers throwing in the upper 80s with good control and no plus curveball or slider, please let me know, because I’m not that good.

Chris: I’m sure you’ve answered this before, but do you have a Top 5 for baseball movies? I just saw Major League for the first time and it was…fine? Not even sure it’d be in my Top 5, even though I know so many people love it. Just wondering what yours is!
Keith Law: And it’s aged very poorly. Jake flat-out stalks Lynn, and it’s supposed to be romantic. Sugar is my go-to rec, since so few people have seen it. Pelotero if you’d consider a documentary. I think Eight Men Out is solid. I enjoy Field of Dreams but it’s not much of a baseball movie, and neither is Bull Durham. Most baseball movies get the baseball very wrong, and/or rely on baseball to paper over bad plots.

randplaty: Is Paddack really a #1 or #2 starter? Or is he pitching over his head?
Keith Law: At least a #2.

Matt W: Any recommendations for a good vacation read? Something with a fairly engrossing plot rather than something meandering.
Keith Law: Eh, depends on your tastes, but one of my absolute favorite recent novels is Anthony Doerr’s All The Light We Cannot See.

Texas Bill: Is there definitive proof that MLB is using a “juiced” ball?
Keith Law: There is proof that changes to the physical characteristics to the baseball have contributed to the rise in home runs, yes. Dr. Meredith Wills has also argued it has contributed to the rise in blisters among pitchers.

Steve : What would you do if you are the Mets with Dom Smith? Have him get everyday ABs in AAA and work out a trade? What do you think they can get for him?
Keith Law: I would think you could get a similar player – a young, ready, potential at another position or a back-end starter. I don’t think sending him to triple-A helps his trade value, though.

Erin: Besides McKenzie Gore, which Padres minor leaguer are you most excited about?
Keith Law: Do I have to choose just one? OK, Luis Patino. Or maybe Tirso Ornelas. Xavier Edwards is really intriguing though.

MikeM: Deivi Garcia went 5 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K last night. The strikeouts are there but he seems to have some control issues. I know you saw him in his first AA start this year. Do you think he has the athleticism to gain control or will he always be wild? What is a realistic outcome for him? There is ace upside there with the pure stuff but you can say that about a lot of guys.
Keith Law: Definitely not ace upside there – I like Deivi but that is not ace stuff or size. I also don’t think he’ll always be wild; he wasn’t wild last year, certainly.

Jeff: What type talents are Quin Cotton & Braden Shewmake? Rounds 3-5?
Keith Law: Shewmake more comp/second. Cotton you are spot on.

Minong: I really enjoyed Neil Gaiman’s American Gods, do you read his stuff?
Keith Law: I just finished Good Omens yesterday. American Gods is the best of his novels I’ve read.

Noel: Miguel Amaya has had an interesting year, with a 17% walk rate but a .226 BABIP. Has his early season results changed his future outlook at all?
Keith Law: SSS.

Andy: Rutschman is a switch hitting college catcher, who can field, with power. I’ve never seen him, but this screams Wieters, even without the Orioles conncetion.
Keith Law: He’s a much better receiver today than Wieters was, and we have better data to back that up.

Jeff: Will Brett Baty go out as a 3B? Do you think he stays there long term?
Keith Law: Yes. Probably not?

Fishing with E: I think there were 2 first rounders that didn’t sign last year. Do you expect that again this year?
Keith Law: That was a huge surprise to me, although those two players had several things in common that may have contributed to them not signing. I do not expect a repeat of that.
Keith Law: As in, I don’t think those factors are going to become more common, and teams may shy away from certain HS players to avoid that situation.

Andrew: Shouldn’t players in the final year of their contract (ie Z. Wheeler) be begging to be traded? That way they can’t be offered a QO. Which shows how ridiculous the QO system is. Are you in favor of any type of FA c compensation?
Keith Law: I’d eliminate FA compensation entirely. Of course, I’d eliminate or totally overhaul the draft, too.

Jay: Have you read Early Riser yet? Have you enjoyed Fforde’s non Thursday Next novels?
Keith Law: Own it, haven’t read it, enjoyed Shades of Grey in particular.

Chris Paddack: How would you handle my innings this year?
Keith Law: At some point you’re going to have to shut Paddack down, but I wouldn’t put a number on it now; see how the team’s season progresses and if Paddack shows any signs of fatigue at any point you move aggressively to rest him or end his season.

Jim Leyland Palmer: KLaw, if you were running the Tigers during this draft would you prioritize a guy like Belday (safer, closer to contributing) or Greene (More upside, but more risk and further away)? Our current crop of pitching should be due 2020/2021, would it be wise to line this pick up with that window or is that foolish?
Keith Law: Take the guy you like best.

Dave: You seem far less bullish on Rutschman than other people in the industry. What do you see as his limitations?
Keith Law: Don’t know about other people in the industry, but I know plenty of scouts who agree with me that his hit tool isn’t anywhere near what Vaughn’s is.

Matty K : It looks like Lucas Giolito is really starting to throw the ball better. Much improved k/swing and miss rate. I know you have stayed aboard when everyone else has jumped ship. Is this a result of the mechanical reversions you oft-referenced? (I.e, have you seen enough of a change to justify my excitement as a Sox fan?)
Keith Law: I’m in. Changeup is plus now. Velocity is back to where it was. Also he’s fully healthy this year.
Keith Law: Sorry, plumber is here fixing my dryer vent. Previous owners did everything so cheaply that any little problem becomes a large one (in this case, they cut the hole for the exhaust vent in the wrong place, so it was more than half obstructed by part of the wall dropping down into the pipe).

Pat D: I was watching the news yesterday and hearing a 12-year old say about how he was prepared to grab a metal baseball bat and not go down without a fight while some people were shooting up his school. And all I could think to myself was, “How fucking sad is it that a 12-year old kid even has to CONSIDER that?” Am I wrong?
Keith Law: You are not wrong, not at all.

John: Any chance at this point that Abrams makes it to the Reds at 7?
Keith Law: Extremely low, but I could never say zero. What hurts is that I’m not hearing any teams above there exploring under-slot deals – highest team I’ve heard doing that is Texas at 8.

bill wilhelm fan: projection for Logan Davidson to get selected?
Keith Law: Back half of the first round.

Eric: Saying the OK sign isn’t now the white nationalist movement’s symbol is like saying the swastika is just a Hindu symbol.
Keith Law: Good analogy.

Jeff: How much does a pre draft workout with a team mean in the weeks leading up to the draft? Does that mean serious interest? Is there a cutoff of say players we like in top 5 rounds or is it players an area scouts like etc. Thanks!
Keith Law: I wouldn’t read too much into that, but it does help teams narrow decisions.

Andy: Re Cubs contacting writers: How often are you confronted by a parent or club about your opinions?
Keith Law: Parents very rarely. Clubs sure, from time to time, but nobody has threatened me (in any sense of the word) in years.

Dave.: Is Yodan Alvarez similar to AJ Reed?
Keith Law: I think he’s better than Reed, but you have hit on a couple of my concerns – things that held Reed back that may also hold back YA.

Daniel: Would you say its counterproductive to trade relevant prospects for JD Davis and then not play him because you are overpaying the terrible Todd Frazier?
Keith Law: I really didn’t understand their trades this offseason. They created a lot of redundancy they didn’t need. That said, their issue now is playing the right guys – the trades are made, you can’t undo them – so the argument to play Davis isn’t that you gave up value for him but, as you said, that he can’t be worse than Frazier.

Chris J: Keith, clearly every player is an individual and no 2 are perfectly alike. With that said, some Os fans are leery of taking Rutschman first overall due to Weiters never really having hit the ceiling he displayed as a prospect. Is there something in the scouting, skillset, or other component of the process to indicate he could be more Posey and less Weiters? Thank you.
Keith Law: I’ll add to what I said above – not only is Rutschman a better defender, but I think we know he’s a better defender, and the industry also knows him as a person better because (I think) his grandfather played and then helped teach him to be a great defensive catcher from when he was pretty young.

Rick: C Randolph, M Moniak, A Haseley. We’ve gone from “pour bleach in my eyes” to “what were they thinking” to “we’ll he’s not terrible”. At what point do the Phils revamp their Amateur Scouting Dept??
Keith Law: Their double-A outfield is three first-rounders, all top ten picks, all off to brutal starts this year. I don’t like talking about revamping departments – that’s talking about scouts’ jobs – but I do think a different philosophy in the first round is required.

DH: Can Cavan Biggio be an every day 2B in Toronto this year?
Keith Law: No.

Jordan: Outside of a lack of power, what does Corbin Carroll need to improve on the most?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he really has a lack of power – he’s not Nick Madrigal. He’s pretty strong. He’s just 5’10”. So I guess he needs to get taller?

Sunny: How do you stay positive with the constant barrage of “world ending” news (animal extinction, climate change)?
Keith Law: I have always been fortunate in my ability to compartmentalize enough so that I’m aware of that shit but still able to get out of bed in the morning and look forward to good things each day. We could all live in existential dread, all the time, but it’s not exactly the quality of life to which I aspire.

Erin: Any thoughts on Brady McConnell? His numbers look good this year but haven’t heard much about him since he was a projected first rounder a couple years ago
Keith Law: He’s hit enough the last two months or so to put himself into the top two rounds for sure, maybe even late first. I have some questions about the hit tool and ability to stay at short, but he’s a really good athlete and maybe in the second round you roll the dice on that?

Ker Pal: Nate Pearson – a guy, a GUY, or a GUY!!!
Keith Law: Between the latter two. He’s been on my top 100 the last two years because there’s potential for a Syndergaard-like arsenal.

Jonathan: Has Alex Faedo turned a corner? Can’t find current scouting reports on him, but he’s pitching well through six starts in AA.
Keith Law: SSS. Stuff is the same.

Tim: Kris Bubic! SSS and a college guy in the Sally Lg. But has been impressive. Arrow up, or inconclusive till he gets to a more appropriate challenge?
Keith Law: Doesn’t belong there. Nothing negative, just can’t read anything into a Pac 12 guy going to low-A.

Kris: Missed the last chat to say that I’m absolutely pissed that I didn’t get to meet you in Morgantown, considering I currently live there. I’ll tell you now what I would’ve told you then. Thanks for everything. Although politically I’m more conservative, with your chats I’ve became more open minded to new ideas and ways to view policy. I genuinely thank you for that. I also greatly appreciate your baseball coverage. I hope you enjoyed Morgantown and everyone was hospitable.
Keith Law: That’s all very kind of you. Don’t feel too bad, though – I was in Morgantown for all of about four hours, just there for the game and then back to Pittsburgh.

DH: Kelenic or Gorman? It seems like Gorman has a higher ceiling if he can get to that power but Kelenic’s ceiling isn’t far behind and his floor seems so much higher?
Keith Law: Kelenic. Better hit, defense, run tools. May stay in CF.

Tom C: With Addison Russell and Tyreek Hill being the latest DV players in the news, it’s brought the usual assortment of fanboys/fantasy players with their usual “so, are they NOT supposed to be able to work now” takes. Which I always find amazing because if they were Addison the truck driver or Tyreek the CPA, literally none of them would give a crap whether those guys worked again. But hey, don’t ruin my entertainment bro.
Keith Law: Every damn time. Why are they so concerned with that player’s “right” to work? Oh, right, because laundry.

Dallas: White Sox have drafted Walker (18 2nd), Burger (17 1st), Sheets (17 2nd), Gonzalez (17 3rd), and Collins (16 1st) who all seem like potential 1B/DH (though I’m not entirely sure). Is Vaughn such a good bat that they would continue down this same path? Rutschman seems like an obvious selection for them if available but I question Vaughn.
Keith Law: I’ve also heard them with Abrams, because Kenny Williams likes him. (That’s the story, at least.) I’d much rather take Vaughn given his history. Also, although you’re correct on their last bunch of picks, I don’t think Collins and Sheets matter, and Gonzalez is definitely an outfielder.

Joe: Fearless prediction: if/when the banned Cubs fan’s name becomes public, it’ll take less than 20 seconds of viewing his Facebook/Twitter profiles to understand exactly why the Cubs are so sure it was a racist gesture.
Keith Law: Now there’s a story on Twitter (just since I started this chat) that he wasn’t racist, so who the hell knows. Here’s another suggestion, though: maybe don’t be a dumbass on live TV? Like, just wave and smile?

JP: Not a fan of horror or gratuitous violence, but do you avoid historical violence in TV/movies, such as war or slavery?
Keith Law: War, no. Slavery, sometimes. I never saw 12 Years a Slave for that reason.

Jonathan: What’s good on TV/Netflix these days? Looking for a show to watch this summer when I finally grab some free time.
Keith Law: Russian Doll is the last new show I binged.

BK : Does Jordyn Adams become a top 15 by seasons end you think?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

dmitry: BTW, agree with your answer to the exercise question. As a sports physical therapist who deals with anxious NYers, my best answer to which kind is “whatever has the best chance of getting you there”!
Keith Law: Good! Love to hear from experts. I talk mental health stuff because people ask, but ultimately I’m not an expert, just someone who is going through it myself and asks a lot of questions.

Fred: The Yordan take is not a good look for you.
Keith Law: Well, I ain’t good looking, but I’m someone’s child.

wrburgess: When players like Liberatore and Jhon Torres are held back in Spring, does that concern you or is it just a routine process?
Keith Law: No concerns unless we have definite word of something amiss.

Jonathan: Dream retirement spot?
Keith Law: Italy.

Geordy: I’m intrigued by the tools of Maurice Hampton, have you heard any word on his signability with his LSU dual-sport commitment?
Keith Law: I’ve heard he wants to play baseball. After the Murray fiasco, that’s the biggest question of all.

Kirk: I’ve seen you mention overhauling the draft a few places recently now. So…bulletpoints, 10,000 foot view, how would you do that?
Keith Law: I’m going to have to make that a column at some point soon because it’s too long to write anywhere else.

DH: I don’t think Mateo would move Semien off short so is there a path for Mateo? 2B over Profar? OF?
Keith Law: Centerfield.

Dr. Bob: RE: the OK/White Power sign. I had never heard of this when the Wrigley story came out. So I googled it, read a couple of article, and then I knew. Research. With the internet, it’s really easy to do now. Clark should try it sometime.
Keith Law: I don’t know why people are arguing so hard *against* the idea that there could be new ways to express hate.
Keith Law: Like, have we learned nothing the last three years

Mac: I’m sorry but I can’t wrap my head around a power switch hitting plus defensive catcher and an undersized R/R first base only being evaluated that closely. I just can’t see it
Keith Law: What if the first baseman projects to regularly post .400+ OBPs but the catcher might be in the low .300s? There are obviously thresholds where the two are close or even flipped.

Robert: Do you think part of the consternation that built up with Giolito is due to the fact he has been a prospect for so long? Hard to believe he is just 24!
Keith Law: Drafted at 17, very famous even before then, included in a high-profile trade … lot of factors going into people wanting to give up on a player.

Reader from 2015: Have you read “The Three Body Problem” trilogy yet? If you dig existentialism, it re-defines the idea.
Keith Law: Read the first book, enjoyed it but didn’t feel driven to go to book two.

James: Non-zero chance we see Brendan McKay in the majors this season?
Keith Law: Non-zero but below 5%.

Pat: Houston took Correa way below slot in 2012, then took McCullers at like 41. Would Vaughn be the only option for the O’s if they went the underslot route? Could anyone else like Abrams get in the discussion?
Keith Law: Sure. Abrams, Greene. If Carroll were 6’2″ he’d be a candidate.

Iris: I am conflicted….if it is a white nationalist symbol, why does President Obama still flash the okay sign so often?
Keith Law: I know this is very hard to believe, but sometimes words and gestures mean different things depending on who’s using them or in what context.

Cyril: Not a question but your comment in last week’s chat about Marvel characters solving disputes by throwing one another into buildings made me laugh out loud.
Keith Law: It was my #1 complaint about the Spider-verse movie. Like, guys, it’s a cartoon. You can make the characters do literally *anything* … and they just swing from their spidey-silk and throw each other into buildings!

Matt: Have you heard much about the Padres’ decision to convert Javier Guerra to a RP? When was the last time this guy actually pitched!?
Keith Law: I don’t think he had ever pitched before instructs. Eric Longenhagen has seen him twice now – he’s your best source on that.

Eric: My 3-year-old son is starting preschool in a few weeks. Any tips for getting him prepared so it’s a smooth transition?
Keith Law: I wish I did have good advice. My daughter was all in – the day we dropped her off she ran right in to play with the other kids and introduced herself. She is the opposite of me in so many of the best ways.

Will: Thanks for the update on Bleday & the other #VandyBoys prospects. Any thoughts on Phillip Clarke? He’s another draft-eligible sophomore.
Keith Law: Given that he’s a Vandy sophomore, I didn’t think he was good enough to be drafted (and signable) this year. I could be way off but that was my take.

Kirk: when you put Balazovic on your near miss list, you caught a lot of Twins fans off guard. Stat line looks good so far – still see the same ceiling so far?
Keith Law: Yep, no change.

Hufflepuff: Sam Huff is a 21 year old catcher repeating at low-A in the Sally League. He’s also got 15 home runs this year, and is putting up video game numbers for Hickory. Is it premature to start mentally sliding him up a few rungs on the Rangers prospect rankings list?
Keith Law: Yes, too old for the level.

Andy: Wasn’t Brandon McIlwain supposed to be a surefire first round pick this year?
Keith Law: No, definitely not. Just a name to watch now that he was finally supposed to play regularly (before he got hurt).

Jason: Cristian Pache’s slash line is .319/.366/.540; since all I can do is scout the stat line, should I be concerned about his low walk rate, or is his average so high that you wouldn’t expect him to be walking more?
Keith Law: I doubt he’ll ever be a high-walk guy. I think he’ll hit for enough average, with 20+ homer power, and absolutely elite defense.

Debo: Hi Keith. I am relocating to Wilmington for work. Many of my future colleagues are advising against the Delaware public school system. What was your approach when moving to area? Thanks.
Keith Law: It’s a little district-by-district. There are also a lot of charter schools here, some very good (and some terrible), if you don’t have a philosophical objection to them. And there are many private schools with long histories, some of which are focused on specific areas (e.g., I know of one that’s known as a good sportsball school). Feel free to hit me up outside the chat if this looks like it’s happening.

Josh: I have written ESPN my Plus subscription walks the moment you do. Thanks for all of the consistently high quality work.
Keith Law: You’re welcome – and thank you for that, especially since I’m in the last year of my deal.

JJ: Prospects to watch at a Yardgoats game? Is Phil Nevin’s kid a guy?
Keith Law: He is a guy. Also, what a great ballpark.

Josh: Curious what newspaper(s) you subscribe to, if any?
Keith Law: Digital only: Washington Post, New Yorker.

Jeff: Why does Brett Baty’s age come up a lot more than Bobby Witt Jr.? Is the 6 months that big or is it more the level of talent top 5 vs. mid-late 1st?
Keith Law: Sliding scale – your actual age (probably the delta between your age and the average) goes into the formula. The more days away from the mean you are, the more you get dinged.
Keith Law: Or I guess raised if you’re young.
Keith Law: OK, I went long today to make up for the lost time earlier. It’s been a series of house calamities this week but at least now I can do laundry again. Thank you for your patience and for all of your questions this week. I’m sorry I couldn’t get to more. I will chat again next week and hope to resume the Periscope chats very soon since the draft is just around the corner.

My ranking of the top 50 prospects for this year’s draft is up now for ESPN+ subscribers, as is a new scouting notebook covering six prep prospects I saw in April, five of whom are on the top 50.

Keith Law: Sometimes you break a finger on the upper hand. Klawchat.

Randal Grichuk: Tim Anderson is on an insane streak right now, but even though he has made some improvements, a lot of it is BABIP related. Moncada has cut his K-rate by 10% and has been awesome, but also has a high BABIP (although, with his contact profile and high exit velocity/speed, he could honestly be a .350 BABIP guy like Baez/Judge). Which of the two do you think is gonna end the season as better offensively, and do you agree that Moncada’s BABIP doesn’t need to regress *that* much due to his contact profile?
Keith Law: I’d rather bet on Anderson’s long term future.

Ray: I’m a big fan of Samin Nosrat’s show and cookbook , Salt Fat Acid Heat. Curious if you’ve seen/read either and what you thought?
Keith Law: I own the book but haven’t read it yet.

Bob: I hear a lot of complaining about the MLB ball wildly inflating AAA HR rates. If the point of bringing the MLB ball to AAA was to help players make the transition to MLB (I think that’s true?), then is this actually a problem or is this the policy working the way it was supposed to?
Keith Law: The bigger problem is that the MLB ball sucks. The answer to the problem was to un-juice the MLB ball, not bring the bad ball to AAA.

David: Enjoy your game lists. A long time ago you recommended Metro, a tile-laying game that has a similar format as many on your current top 100. Just wondering what happened to it – did you stop playing it because of the flood of new games, is it out of print, or did others just surpass it in your mind? Metro has long been one of our favorites, and it’s faster to play and simpler to set up and score than many of the more current games on the list, which is a plus for us. We just picked up Carcassonne finally (thanks for the link to the one-day sale!) and the game mechanics seem pretty similar so far, so I’m sure we’ll enjoy that one too.
Keith Law: Haven’t played it in years mostly because there are many better games in that vein – Carcassonne of course, but also Cacao, Karuba.

Kyle KS: I’ll eat some crow today on my Dexter Fowler question from a few weeks ago. He’s been a force since then and it has been fun watching him and Martinez get playing time and be all smiles in the outfield. You were right that they should keep giving him playing time. So no question, just a thanks for your work!
Keith Law: It’s still so damn early – everyone wants to react to the tiny samples of a few weeks of games but we have no real way to distinguish signal from noise in this little data.

Bob: Tirso Ornelas is off to a solid start, but not showing much HR power in the CAL. I’ve heard his called a potential middle of the order hitter. Does he have 25 HR/yr pop when he matures or a bit less than that?
Keith Law: He’s 19 in high-A. I don’t think he’s a future 30 HR guy, but please stop stat-scouting teenagers playing that far above their age level.

addoeh: Looks like you were able to see Quinn Priester on one of the few recent nice days in the Chicago area. Do you have any more thoughts on him beyond what you wrote in the top 50 draft piece or was there a draft prospect blog post I missed?
Keith Law: I have a blog post covering him, Barco, Callihan, Nunez, Siani, and Newell that should go up today.

Bob: Daniel Lynch has been extremely hitable in Wilmington. Have you seen him at all? I’m wondering to what extent that’s bad defense, bad luck or perhaps a sign that his stuff is a bit short for a mid-rotation projection.
Keith Law: I saw him. He’s fine.
Keith Law: Again, don’t scout the stat line.

James: Gallen for the Marlins and VanMeter for the Reds have big changes in their stats this year compared to last, are either of them good enough to be a regular going forward?
Keith Law: Gallen’s a back-end starter, still. Van Meter isn’t a shortstop, and obviously not a 50 HR guy, but he can hit and has come into more power even going back into last year, enough that I think he’s a clear big leaguer, maybe not with a set position but someone who can play semi-regularly while moving around.

Mike Greer: Is Devers slow’ish start mostly a product of not barreling the ball & poor launch angle (1.1% Barrel% | 5.6% LA) or is it a product of the skills not being as good as we thought? I know you’re bullish on him, but I wanted to see if your early season assessment has changed at all.
Keith Law: No, my early season assessment has not changed at all.

Frank V: Jesse Winker’s early season power numbers look great, regardless of his low AVG and poor BAIBP luck – do you think we are looking at a star in the making?
Keith Law: Yes, he was on my breakout list for that reason – that I think the power he showed last year was real.

Este: Thots on The hype surrounding Vladdy already. I saw video in the streets of d.r. of people cheering on his routine putouts. I love it
Keith Law: I love it too. I’d love it more if he’d been treated fairly, and if MLB and the Jays hadn’t been promoting him while also suppressing his salary.

Mike: Keith, love the chats. I know you can’t draft for need, but the Mets really have no OF prospects in full season ball. Would you recommend they draft an OF in first 2 rounds or still draft BPA?
Keith Law: Always, always, always draft best player available.
Keith Law: That said, don’t be shocked if they end up with a college bat at 12.

Patrick: Did you do Endgame? If so, had you seen all the movies leading up to it?
Keith Law: Hell no. One, I won’t go sit through any three-hour movie in a theater. But two, time travel is the *laziest* plot device ever. I don’t bother with movies that insult the audience’s intelligence like that.

Joe: Keith, how would you rate Adley compared to other recent top draft prospects? Is he the best prospect since Harper?
Keith Law: No, definitely not “the best since Harper.” He’s fine, not clearly 1-1 in every draft though.

Mike G: Worried about Royce Lewis’s slow start?
Keith Law: About his start, no. About the changes to his mechanics – he’s gotten very noisy, with a hitch now and multiple triggers – yes.

Drew W: Totally SSS, but Nolan Gorman’s power sure is playing up in Peoria. Would you put it as high as 70?
Keith Law: I put it at 80 in 2018 before he was drafted.

JAS: Is it reasonable to expect the Padres to contend when most of their hitters seem allergic to taking walks? They are next to last in OB%, and it seems to be a system wide issue.
Keith Law: Their system as a whole and major-league roster in particular are all very young.

BigDaddeh: Has Gosuke Katoh taken the leap or is this SSS noise?
Keith Law: SSS. He slugged .335 last year.

Dr. Bob: Hey there, Keith. Cardinals, Rays, and Twins are making your preseason predictions looking pretty good right now.
Keith Law: It’s nice to get something right occasionally.

Elizabeth Warren 2020: How depressing is it that we (myself included) feel comfortable writing off Mayor Pete in the primary, largely over a weak position on vaccines, but at the same time would take Richard Nixon’s head in a jar over Trump in the general election? Really shows how far apart the two parties are.
Keith Law: Are those even the same question, though? The former is Buttigieg vs the field of candidates; the latter is Buttigieg vs Trump. Of course I’d take the field in the former and Mayor Pete in the latter. (He did clarify that he opposes nonmedical exemptions.)

Robert: How high are you on Xavier Edwards? I know it’s still early but batting 400 with strong BB skills first year out of HS in the cold MW league is impressive. Even with the lack of power can he be a 55? See any Dee Gordon to his game?
Keith Law: I’m a fan, but he’s nothing like Dee Gordon.

Robert: Would you cut bait on Kinsler and just start Urias if you’re the Padres?
Keith Law: Yes.

Moe Mentum: Nick Pivetta. Should he convert to the bullpen, or can he figure it out to be a mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: I’ve thought he would go to the pen for a while because he doesn’t have a viable pitch for lefties.

Meeeeeeeeeee: Do you think hitters are getting used to the higher velocity of the past decade, and (if so) could that possibly lead to teams giving more chances to pitchers who rely on guile and pitching knowledge (like a Jamie Moyer type, for example)?
Keith Law: Teams seem to be more concerned with guys who have strong secondary stuff now – Matt Allan is the top prep arm this year because he has the best breaking ball of that group – or who have clean deliveries and athleticism so that they can go into a player development system that works to develop new or refine existing pitches.

KLAU: Where does Shea Langeliers go at this point? Still a 1st rounder?
Keith Law: yes. Somewhere in the 15-30 range.

Meeeeeeeeeee: What is the political atmosphere like in Delaware regarding Biden? Are people excited, or do they have a ‘been there/done that’ attitude about him running?
Keith Law: He’s less popular locally than you might think.

Sage: Is Jon Lester best FA signing by Cubs EVER ?
Keith Law: Dawson in 1987 is tough to beat, but that’s not a fair comparison.

Greg: Hey Keith, Austin Riley’s K rate went from 29% last year to 21% in 100+ PAs this year. Is that enough sample size to believe in, or still small sample size?
Keith Law: Take a guess.

Gene: I miss Jarred Kelenic and I didn’t even like the trade at the time
Keith Law: He’s had a funny/weird season too. He started out 2 for 25 in his first seven games, with 7 BB and 9 K. Since then he’s hit in every game (17) and is at .456/.513/.868 in that stretch.

steve: Keith: Very impressive year plus for Red sox prospect Jarren Duran. Profile seems to be slap hitter with speed/ What are your thoughts here. Also does CJ Chatham have a big league future in him?
Keith Law: Duran is legit, chance to be a regular. Can really hit. Chatham probably a UT.

Jeff: To be clear, you think there is such a thing as a 9 year old “trans” child?
Keith Law: What I think is immaterial. Nine-year-old children can be transgender; that is just a fact. That’s not to say that all children who exhibit gender nonconforming behavior are trans, but a child nine or even younger can identify as a different gender than the one they were assigned at birth. Denying this fact will just do more harm to these children, who already experience sky-high rates of suicide and violence.

Tom: Who’s the best reliever only draft prospect this year, and could they be ready for October in the majors?
Keith Law: I have yet to hear of any relief prospect in this draft who is good enough to get to the majors this year.

Eric: Do you think Pete Alonso is an All-Star caliber player?
Keith Law: I think he’ll make the team this year, almost certainly.

David: Should the Braves bench Ender and play Camargo everyday? Ender hasn’t been good at all offensively and with Acuna shouldn’t he be in CF anyway?
Keith Law: Yes, I’ve been arguing that for a while now.

Steve: With the top 4 probably gone, who should the Tigers target?
Keith Law: I’ll do a mock for Monday but I don’t know that the top 4 will be gone either.

Eric: What is the ceiling for Simeon-Woods ?
Keith Law: #2 starter? Heard very good things back to last summer, have not seen him myself yet.

Zach: Is there an adjusted BABIP stat that accounts for hard-hit and line drive %?
Keith Law: Several, but I don’t think any of them has a high enough predictive value to rely upon.

Chris: Can Chavis play 2nd long term? Or is he strictly a corner infielder?
Keith Law: I’d be surprised if he could play anywhere but first base as a regular. He might hit enough to be a regular at 1b though.

Eric: At what age would starting books with actual stories and chapters be appropriate?
Keith Law: I can only speak to my daughter’s experience but I was reading her simple books like the original Mary Poppins stories and Winnie-the-Pooh when she was 4. There’s so much value in the interaction itself – the time you’re spending with your child as you read to them – that I wouldn’t worry if your kid isn’t grasping every word. It’s just so valuable to be with them one-on-one like that.

Zac: What does Derek Hill have to hit to be a glove first center fielder?
Keith Law: If he keeps doing what he’s done in a tiny sample this year – which is brand new for him, so I’m not saying I buy into it – then he’s going to be at least a quality fourth outfielder for a long time.
Keith Law: He’s that good a defender and runner. He’s also barely getting on base right now, even with much improved power, so maybe it’s nothing.

John: I read an article today saying the Dodgers already won the Puig-Kemp trade because they got back Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I liked the trade more for them at the time, since they acquired two real prospects for guys whose contracts were ending soon anyway.

Beans Mahones: Corbin Carroll with some helium. Anything on fellow WA HS OF Joshua Mears?
Keith Law: Mears maybe 30-60 range in the draft. Someone I considered for the top 50 but just left off.

Raani: You would cease contact with your parents if they hadn’t vaccinated you when you were young? Dude, are you mentally ill?
Keith Law: Technically, yes, I am, as I have been diagnosed with anxiety disorder, but since you’re using “mentally ill” as an insult, kindly go fuck yourself.

Ryan: any good HS prospects in Minneapolis this year?
Keith Law: Not on my top 50 but Drew Gilbert and Will Frisch at Stillwater HS, both committed to Oregon State, are both prospects even though they might end up at school (to be overused like Abel and Rasmussen?).

Jim: Keith, I know it’s SSS and all that, but at what point do you sit someone who’s not hitting and not looking particularly good (I’m looking at you, Brian Dozier & Ryan Zimmerman)? After all, while it’s early, it’s not too early to dig too deep a hole for a team to get out of. Thanks, and welcome back!
Keith Law: Feel like Dozier is someone you’d give up on more than Zimmerman.

Chris P: When you say “non-prospect” that obviously means a guy isn’t going to become a star, but what would you call a guy that wont make your lists but likely can stay in the big leagues for 5-7 years?
Keith Law: Sometimes I would just say “big leaguer,” or extra guy or reserve. I think some readers would view any of those as denigrating the player, but it’s really not – it takes a lot of ability to get to that point.

Stubbs: Julio Rodriguez (SEA-OF) is a Guy?
Keith Law: He’s a prospect – but he’s hurt now, unfortunately.

alex: Who has the bigger upside, DL Hall or Grayson Rodriguez? I think Hall because he is LH, but GRod seems to be doing well and is a big dude. Thanks
Keith Law: Rodriguez has more size and velocity but I’d bet on Hall having the better career.

Troy: What is your favorite protein to cook with?
Keith Law: Duck.

Chris P: I try to remind myself that nothing really matters until the end of June…but I’m definitely enjoying this Buxton comeback so far
Keith Law: He was also pretty good the last five months of 2017, before injuries ruined his 2018. I’m more inclined to buy into a good April when there is preceding performance to support it.

Michael: How much confidence do you have in ranking a player in the top 50 that you’ve never seen but have heard great things about from others you trust?
Keith Law: I do enough work on those players that I feel pretty confident in the 50 guys I listed. I’ve seen 25 of the 50 on my list so far this spring, not counting anyone I saw last summer.

Snowy: Is McKay’s ceiling an ace? Or more of a #2?
Keith Law: More of a #2 due to lack of a clear plus pitch.

Troy: Does Dakota Hudson rate out as a 1 or 2 starter long term?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a starter long term.

Tyson: Keith, who is the most talented high schooler outside of Harper you have ever evaluated?
Keith Law: Of course we didn’t know at the time but the accurate answer would be Mike Trout.

Alex: Is Yordan Alvarez a major leaguer given his defense liabilities?
Keith Law: Definitely a major leaguer.

Peter Brand: Thoughts on Caster Semenya ruling?
Keith Law: Gross and scientificially inaccurate. There is no such thing as a “male hormone;” all humans produce testosterone, and calling that a male hormone is just ignorant. Gross because this feels like white women mad they couldn’t beat the black woman so they got a court to rule her some kind of freak.

Chris P: What’s the deal with Quantrill now? I know his 2018 was a disaster, so has something changed?
Keith Law: Yeah, his velocity is mostly back. He was 93-96 last night, which is much closer to his 2016 self. I’m intrigued.

Bynd : What is your impression of Beyond Meat?
Keith Law: I’ve cooked their burgers a few times and they’re great. My biggest complaint is how wasteful the packaging is.

Luke: No question, just wanted to say thank you for all the work you do. My wife’s son and I greatly enjoy it.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. I’m glad many of you enjoy it.

John: I’m seeing Cal play next week at USF, do you see Darren Baker as an early round prospect?
Keith Law: No. He can run, not sure there’s much else. Their first baseman is pretty good though…

Troy: When is it a trend instead of a SSS? June1?
Keith Law: There is no concrete date after which all sample sizes are automagically non-small. As the sample sizes grow, our confidence in the signal should gradually increase.

Frank: if you had to chose 1, Waters or Pache? (luckily the braves dont have to make this decision)
Keith Law: Pache. Elite defender with power.

Michael: For those confused on small sample size, Betts went from .239 to .290 in six games. It’s so early.
Keith Law: Perfect example.

Tadd: Josh Bell is…..very good? That boy has been CRUSHING baseballs this year.
Keith Law: He’s always had the ability, but for whatever reason he didn’t seem to try to drive the ball even in AA and certainly not in the majors. The Pirates signaled a whole new hitting approach for this year; maybe he’s the big beneficiary.

Sam: Thoughts on CHVRCHES saying they refuse to work with Marshmello again after he worked with Chris Brown and Tyga?
Keith Law: Good for them.

Jeff: Is there a Dominic Smith solution? He’s been raking when getting AB’s but you can’t really blame NYM for playing Alonso. Has to be a trade in the near future right?
Keith Law: Yep. Can’t bench Alonso, can’t let Smith rot on the vine. Best solution is a trade, once they decide what they most need.

PD: Will we see another draft pick go straight to the majors again?
Keith Law: I can’t say never, but it’s not bloody likely.

Jay: Do you think Cole Tucker has the ability to stick with the Pirates all season or will one of the Seinfeldian Kevin’s push him back to the minors due to service time considerations?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t surprise me if he ended the year as their shortstop or second baseman – his arm has been inconsistent for me post-surgery – but I don’t think they’re gaming his service time.

Frank: Tapia looks like an exciting player in Colorado…i wish they’d release Desmond but its nice to see him sit 3-4 days a week.
Keith Law: Tapia is unconventional but he’s got crazy hand-eye and I think he’ll hit as long as he’s given playing time.

Victoria: Luis Urias showcasing some previously unheard of power. Any thoughts for this to continue this year / into the bigs? A mirage?
Keith Law: Small sample + crazy hitter’s environment + new juiced balls in AAA. (The baseballs are juiced, I mean. Stop that.)

Eric: (can we not refer to josh bell as “boy,” please …)
Keith Law: Sorry, I completely missed that. You are correct.

Uli Jon: It seems you get a lot of response on your philosophy on hiring domestic abusers. I imagine there’s some scenario where you might allow it – the perpetrator is genuinely contrite, accepts their punishment, is open to exploring underlying issues that led them there, engage personally, financially, and in perpetuity with organizations and victims. As far as examples of this…wait, still checking.
Keith Law: Right – can we have one such case of a player expressing actual remorse and acting upon it in a meaningful way first? Trea Turner handled the revelation of his past homophobic tweets extremely well, so the community as a whole forgave him and moved past it. Josh Hader didn’t, and plenty of us still think he got away with something. In the case of (more serious) DV suspensions, every single player has talked his way around what he actually did.

Marco: We have nearly 2 full baseball seasons, including playoffs and World Series, until the next Presidential election. Do you agree that the breathless media coverage of every schmoe that announces their candidacy is bordering on lunacy?
Keith Law: Yes. I’d go further, that I think the ridiculous coverage and the desperate need to rank all these candidates, including the various slapdicks throwing in their hats when we’ve never heard of them before, subverts any semblance of a rational process.

Danny: Is Andrew Dalquist a Yankee target at 30/38 (he’s the only SoCal prep arm on the list)
Keith Law: I haven’t heard them at all with him or any prep arms for them right
now.

Grover: Any chance you think we might see May or Gonsolin called up for LAD this fall?
Keith Law: Doubtful. Again, I don’t like saying never, but it doesn’t make a ton of sense.

Moose: White Sox seem allergic to prep players with 1st round picks. Would they consider Witt if Adley & Vaughn go 1 and 2?
Keith Law: I don’t think Witt gets to them right now, but I don’t think it’s an “allergy” but a preference. They have a good system with a young core in the majors and a few more prospects near the majors, so it makes some sense to focus on guys who’ll move quickly.

Devon: What’s the story with Jamie Westbrook in the DBacks system? He’s hitting well (granted, its in the PCL) but is he a prospect?
Keith Law: I don’t think he is.

Corey: Boston’s slow start has resulted from many things, bullpen not really being one of them despite the media’s off-season worry beads. And there appears to be quite a bit of reliever depth in the system. Can we stick a pin in the Boston needs to sign Kimbrel thing ? Not going to happen given the actual cost after tax penalties. I don’t think the Sox need anything other than just to play better (and a 2b staying healthy)
Keith Law: Agreed. I feel like the bullpen is not near the list of their biggest problems, and also something they could fix more easily.

Danny: Do you think Luke Voit’s success is sustainable and did prospect analysts “miss” on him?
Keith Law: Lindsey Adler has a great piece on him in the Athletic (in the Athletic or on the Athletic?) that talks about the changes in his entire approach since the Yankees acquired him. I think much of it is sustainable because there’s a foundation of tangible changes there.

Dick Hickock & Perry Smith: Have yu ever read In Cold Blood? Thoughts?
Keith Law: I did. Capote falling in love with one of the murderers is problematic, to be kind, but it’s a hell of a read.

Minny: Alex Kirilloff was just activated today at AA. Does his injury to start the season remove any hope (if there ever was any) of seeing him in September? Or does the Twins competitive team and full OF make it a moot point anyway?
Keith Law: Yeah it’ll take an injury to find a spot for him, I think.

Jerry: Astros team offensive numbers looking pretty good. Except for hitting with RISP. Reason for concern or simply wait for regression to the mean?
Keith Law: Batting with RISP is just batting. There’s no such thing as a hitter who only hits without RISP.

Adam D.: I get what you’re saying about time travel being lazy as a plot device. And certainly if you aren’t invested in the characters and stories they’ve built up, Endgame doesn’t make much sense to go see. That said, for those of us who are invested, I did not feel insulted by the use of time travel at all. It’s handled far better than just about any movie besides maybe Looper, and the payoffs are tremendous.
Keith Law: Meh. If you guys like it, great, but my daughter watched Infinity War last week and I couldn’t get through a half hour. I also kind of have an issue with the whole characters throwing each other into buildings, off buildings, into walls, etc. as a means of conflict resolution.

Mark: Chris Sale, there’s obviously something wrong with his arm/shoulder right? You would think the Sox have done countless tests on his arm since last year, especially before signing him to an extension so what the heck is going on?
Keith Law: He doesn’t look healthy at all. I can’t speak to what the Red Sox did before the extension, but he looks (from his stuff and command) like someone who is pitching hurt.

MacDaddy: Thoughts on the possibility of George Valera finishing the year as a top 25 prospect?
Keith Law: No.

Jeff: Thanks for the chats/tweets/content. Are there any college games you are planning to scout in the near future?
Keith Law: I’m planning to hit the ACC tournament and I want to go see Vanderbilt before then. That’s probably it – it’s writing/phone calls/texting time for me, with the draft 32 days away (cue @infinite_scream).

Nate: Why do you spend so much time arguing with random people on Twitter? Wouldnt that time be better spent on your family or on your marriage or some other worthwhile endeavor?
Keith Law: The irony of someone coming to my free chat, which I do on my own time for no direct compensation, to ask this question is really quite something.

Randy: Just started getting into coffee recently, what kind of coffee maker would you recommend starting off?
Keith Law: I got a Hario V60 pour-over setup, which uses paper cone filters, for making myself a cup of coffee. It’s like $25, doesn’t require a fancy grinder, and aside from the fact that it takes about five minutes to make a cup it’s easy and convenient.

Hi: Despite you being Luis Robert’s Kryptonite, what are your thoughts on him? Has his performance warranted a bump up on top prospect lists?
Keith Law: I wrote him up last month, but I don’t move players up my lists after three weeks in the minors, sorry.

Joe: Keith, Blake Rutherford has been bruuuutal so far. Safe to write him off?
Keith Law: Just set him to the side. I really hate the idea of calling a player a bust, or assuming he’ll never turn into anything. Look at Voit, for example. Or, less extreme, Max Kepler, who is having his first good (maybe very good?) MLB season right now (SSS) *ten years* after he signed as an amateur. Guys change, they grow and mature on their timetables, and so they can always surprise us.

Josh: What are your thoughts on how Alex Verdugo has looked so far? Seems even better than I anticipated, especially holding his own against lefties.
Keith Law: He’d earned the opportunity on the field, at least. I feel better about him hitting .300+ going forward than about him slugging .600+.

Troy: I know you’ve mentioned autism is far more likely in older fathers. As a 41 year old having one last child should I be concerned?
Keith Law: Not sure you can do anything about it. Just hope for the best!

Danny: You saw Deivi’s “debut” in AA (he had a spot start in Trenton last year)? How is his changeup coming along and do you think he stays in the rotation?
Keith Law: I’ll write up the start soon, but his changeup was above average for me.

Questioning: What’s the difference between transgender and intersex? I know that the brain can be wired differently to not match genitalia, or there are both or no genitalia. But I’m confused on the specifics and want to understanding.
Keith Law: The Intersex Society of North America has a great answer to this Intersex encompasses a lot of conditions, but the best lay explanation I can think of is that they are born neither clearly male nor clearly female, which includes their genitalia. Many of these theocratic, GOP-pushed laws punishing trans people will also adversely affect intersex people, which is an added layer of injustice.

Mike: What do you think about how the Cubs have/are handling the Addison Russell situation?
Also, when does Kris Bryant start hitting again?
Keith Law: They should have non-tendered Russell in December. That was their biggest mistake.

AGirlHasNoName: If the Cubs were going to extend Baez, what would the numbers look like? Would you try to do it if you were the Cubs?
Keith Law: I would definitely try to extend him. Maybe offer him 6 years $125 million? Covers two arb years, four FA years.

Matthew: SSS of course but has Alec Hansen found a home in the pen? If he keeps the walks down, could he close?
Keith Law: Not sure about closing, but he’s back on the path to the majors. I saw him here a few weeks ago – his delivery is simpler now, just very functional, not great but it helps him throw strikes.

Jerry: RE: Troy. My children were born when I was 42 and 45. Both turned out fine. My nephew was born when my BIL was 31. He’s on the spectrum. Like Keith said, you just hope for the best.
Keith Law: So many of these things are risk factors but far from definitive. I think I mentioned this issue with respect to Robert Deniro, who was 55 when his son, who has autism, was born. Big difference there.

Tim : Heard you were one of the most sought after bachelors in Delaware.
Keith Law: The girls, the girls they love me…
Keith Law: (That’s Heavy D. I know it was recycled into another song more recently, but please, let’s stick with the classics.)

Drew: I just finished the Whiskey Robber book. I have no idea how I wasn’t aware of him, what an incredible story. Great recommendation.
Keith Law: Glad you liked it! One of my five favorite nonfiction books ever. Delightfully bonkers.

Chuck: If I could search all prospect rankings for keywords, would a phrase similar to “great athlete who just needs to make better contact to be a 5 tool stud” have the worst performance relative to ranking?
Keith Law: Agreed. I had this chat with a scout the other day – we can talk tools all we want but you have to hit.

Greg: Do you have any thoughts on the chickenpox vaccine? My kids have all their usual vaccinations, but I do wonder if they even need a chickenpox vaccine. Overkill, or long overdue?
Keith Law: Long overdue and utterly necessary. Varicella can kill adults.

Brett: Do you watch Jeopardy? Have been watching the run James is on? Guy is impressive. Love how he uses his math skills to increase his odds.
Keith Law: I don’t but it’s a great story and apparently he’s a hardcore baseball fan (and stats nerd, a term I use with great endearment).

Justin R: Ever think of doing a juice cleanse?
Keith Law: I don’t believe in pseudoscience, sorry.

Justin R: I know you don’t care about either, but if you’re at a bar and the NHL and NBA playoffs are on, which one are you ignoring less?
Keith Law: More likely to watch hockey.

Ed: You don’t strike me as an overweight lover !!
Keith Law: No, but I am currently in the house.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions and patience with my erratic schedule the last month-plus. It’ll calm down for the foreseeable future as I focus more on draft writing and less on traveling to see players. (I realized I’m also still trying to see Corbin Carroll, as well as Bleday and the ACC guys, then I’m done.) I should be back for a fresh chat next Thursday, and the mock (projected) first round is scheduled to go up Monday for ESPN+ subscribers. Thank you again!

My column on the most loaded minor league rosters this spring is up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: Freeze this moment a little bit longer. It’s Klawchat.

addoeh: Yes, it’s April 11, but the Cubs bullpen might just be dumpster_fire.gif
Keith Law: And they really didn’t do enough to address it this winter. I’m not necessarily on the ‘sign Kimbrel’ train – I’ve said before I have concerns that he’s on the downswing after 2018 – but he’d be a big upgrade over literally every reliever they have.

addoeh: How much is Chris Davis’s roster status and playing time an ownership directive, rather than a front office or managerial decision?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to that. I would guess his playing time will decline if/when they choose to bring other position players up or grab someone off waivers to whom they want to give a trial.

alex: I know it’s easy to make fun of Chris Davis on twitter– but there have been some articles which discusses that he has become depressed– maybe not in a clinical sense (since there is, as far as I know, he has seen a psychologist for depression)– does that make you reconsider some of the things you have tweeted? As an Os fan, I’d like to see him retire/release/buy out, but I don’t want him to decide to end things the way Mike Flanagan did.
Keith Law: I have tweeted very little about him, so no. I don’t want to appear to be exulting in his struggles. I tweeted once about the time I argued that Jim Bowden was bonkers for suggesting the Orioles should give Davis at least a six-year deal, and made one joke specifically about Davis’ stat line yesterday. Anything more would start to feel like I was attacking the person rather the contract or the production.

Kyle KS: Do you roll the dice with Jose Martinez in RFif your the Cardinals at this point? When does the better defense (although not good defense) of Fowler stop outweighing the fact that he hits with a pool noodle?
Keith Law: I’d like to give Fowler more time; it doesn’t seem like he’s hitting with a pool noodle, as you say, as he has some hard-hit balls already this year.

Swagboy: Does Zach Eflin have any realistic chance at becoming a reliable starter for a Phillies team trying to contend? Would his (realistic) best case scenario be a #4, or could he surpass that? I’d be thrilled if he had 3-3.5 win potential this year.
Keith Law: I think he could be better than a #4, yes.

Bob: You tweeted about Daniel Lynch’s velocity in his most recent start. I saw his first start and it seemed like there was a lot of contact on his secondaries and he would resort to the big fastball to get out of trouble. Do you think he can develop a 2nd (and 3rd!) pitch that can be a swing and miss weapon as he moves up?
Keith Law: That’s not at all what happened in his second start, though. His changeup was above/plus and his slider was sometimes above.

Bob: Hans Crouse is off to a great start. Any idea if there’s been improvement on broadening his repertoire or just blowing hitters away with a limited more reliever-ish arsenal. If the latter, what’s a better approach – forcing him to throw secondary pitchers at that level or pushing him up until better hitters force him to adjust?
Keith Law: I’ve heard it’s more of the same. Not that that’s bad, but I agree eventually he’ll have to adjust.

gavin: are the Padres for real?
Keith Law: They are absolutely a real major league team, which I imagine comes as a surprise to a large portion of MLB’s fan base. They’re also probably good enough to push past .500 this year if they stay healthy.

Josh C: Fangraphs wrote up Astros prospect Abraham Toro as being “divisive” within the industry. What are your thoughts on him? Regular, bench player, not even a guy?
Keith Law: Bench player. I’d have to know what Eric/Kiley meant by divisive to say more, although I trust them if they said that.

Keith: How many PAs typically indicate a stabilized view on K%s and BB%s? Any indication that Moncada has changed his approach in a meaningful way to reduce his K% and increase contact?
Keith Law: There isn’t a clear number for that. I know everyone wants a fixed answer, but that’s not how any statistical distribution works – your confidence that the number is ‘real’ will increase with sample size. I’d be surprised if this Moncada start was sustainable.

Mac: If Rutschman and Vaughn go 1-1 and 1-2 have any college hitters moved into the 1-3 discussion or would the White Sox be choosing between Witt Jr. and Abrams?
Keith Law: Witt Jr, Abrams, Greene, and possibly Bleday (there’s your college hitter) would be the top 6. Lodolo is the only pitcher I can think of who might go top ten, although that’s a reach for me.

Matt: Is this the Maikel Franco we’ve been waiting for?!
Keith Law: No, more a function of hitting 8th.

Rangers: What do you think of our new HR celebration? Inappropriate, wtf, or don’t care?
Keith Law: Don’t care. Celebrate all you want. Have fun.

KillMonger: Fried & Swanson — too early to predict whether either can sustain their success this year?
Keith Law: Too early, yes, but optimistic on both.

Santos: If Kuechel’s demands have actually come down, should the Phillies be seriously considering him? Rotation looks thin and/or volatile.
Keith Law: If I were a GM looking for pitching – Klentak qualifies – I’d be more comfortable “overpaying” for short-term production from Keuchel than Kimbrel. One, I think Keuchel is just better period. Two, I feel better about paying a starter than a reliever.

Tony Stromboli: Logan Gilbert is maintaining the velocity he showed end of last year that raised some eyebrows — at least, through 2 starts. Do you have any general thoughts about him you’d like to share?
Keith Law: I heard 93-95 from a scout who just saw him. He pitched through some minor injuries last spring that probably explained the drop from 92-95 on the Cape in 2017 to 88-92 last summer. I still ranked him as a mid-first rounder even with that velocity because I thought the command and breaking ball made him a potential league-average starter anyway.

Hank: During the off-season you praised the Jays for their hire if Charlie Montoyo. How do you feel about the hiring now that he’s come out saying he likes bunting?
Keith Law: I can still like a manager overall even if he is really stupid about one thing (and, come on, Chuck, stop fucking bunting so much).

Salzer: Do you continue to try Alex Reyes as a starter? He just seems too good to put in the bullpen.
Keith Law: Zero track record staying healthy as a starter. Not saying you don’t try it, but at some point the body is telling you something.

Aaron (Houston): KLAW, thanks for the chat. I have several relatives (parents and kids) who swear their kid (or themselves) can make it to the next level in baseball. With the chances being so small (to make it to the next level), is it not better to skip out on that dream, than try, only to fail, and possibly have no back up plan?
Keith Law: Why not make a backup plan? Not much of a life if you never try anything for fear of failure.

Grover: In the position the Giants are in should they consider trading Buster Posey?
Keith Law: Yes, but I doubt they do, given his status with the franchise.

Tom: Trent thorton – whats his ceiling?
Keith Law: It’s top-of-the-line stuff with below-average command, and I’m not sure he can ever have the command to get to starter quality.

Juwan: SSS of course, but the ball seems to be jumping off of Robles’ bat this season. He attributes the low exit velo to the elbow injury he had at the beginning of last year, it the extra base hit power is real and continues going forward, is he a future perennial all star at center, and does that make him one of the best players in baseball in a few seasons?
Keith Law: Yes to your first question and I’m not so sure about the second. I’d define “one of the best players in baseball” as, say, top 5-10 overall. I’d feel better about saying he’ll be a top 20 player in baseball. Not playing semantics games here, just trying to be clear.

James: SSS but are we sleeping on Franmil Reyes? Only hitting .143/.235/.286 but taking the batted ball data in account his expected BA is .324, expected SLG is .703, and expected WOBA is .440, all while posting great BB% & K% with a high average exit velocity.
Keith Law: Breakout candidate for me this year. Haven’t changed my view.

Jerry: I don’t know enough about it to have an informed opinion so here goes. Is there a legitimate reason to terminate the agreement between MLB and the Cuban Baseball Federation?
Keith Law: In my opinion, no. This reeks of 1) let’s undo the thing Obama did and 2) let’s pander to Cuban-American voters in Florida. The agreement solved a serious problem, and was between a private enterprise and a federation run by the Cuban government. The idea that allowing MLB to give money to an undemocratic regime is untenable while our government hands billions in foreign aid to undemocratic regimes that commit far more serious human rights violations is, to be kind, a bit inconsistent. Why does Cuba get special attention here? See 1 and 2.

Carter: Budget not an issue, where is the best place to sit for an MLB game? Right behind home plate?
Keith Law: Just get behind the net.

Samuel: We’re a little past the discussion at this point, but please tell me I’m not crazy. What Tom Izzo did during the NCAA Tournament wasn’t coaching, right? It wasn’t instructive, helpful, and encouraging. It was a person who was belittling, devaluing, and embarrassing someone he’s in charge of guiding, correct? I feel so discouraged that it seems I’m in the minority here, that we not only accept this behavior, but celebrate it.
Keith Law: I was this many days old when I learned that Tom Izzo is a college basketball coach. I think I only know who won on Monday because I follow Sean Doolittle on Twitter (which everyone should).

Brendan: What happens first? Chris Davis hit or Yu Darvish quality start?
Keith Law: I thought Darvish looked OK last night.

Mark: How long before Ryan Weathers is in Lake Elsinore? Is there anything he can realistically do to become a #1 or #2 starter type?
Keith Law: I’d bet on him spending most/all of the year in low-A and I don’t see a #2 in there unless he has a totally unexpected jump in velocity.

Kris: You pumped for GOT to return?
Keith Law: I have never watched a minute of that show. Rape and violence do not entertain me.

John Smoltz: What are your thoughts on Jesse Biddle? Do you think he can be converted into a starter?
Keith Law: I’d leave him right where he is.

Ben: Any new takeaways on M.J. Melendez or Seuly Matias from your recent look at Wilmington?
Keith Law: Blog post coming tomorrow or tonight. Started it right before this chat. I’ll cover Robert, Lynch, those guys. No Madrigal because he missed the two games I saw, supposedly with a cold.

Kretin: How is it in this day and age that people believe any of this anti-vax nonsense?
Keith Law: Dunning-Kruger syndrome.

Mark: Is Nick Margevicious a legit MLB starter going forward or is he just getting by on smoke and mirrors?
Keith Law: Back end starter. Also, I need someone with art or Photoshop skills to make a gif of Marge Simpson sneering like Sid Vicious with that punk hairdo.

John: Is Dylan Carlson a bench guy regular?
Keith Law: More.

Todd: Rep Tom Massie is confusing. He drives an electric Tesla, has solar powered house, talks all the time about conservation & sustainability. He does more to combat climate change on an individual level than most people…..yet denies climate change.
Keith Law: And he went to MIT. He can’t be as dumb as he sounded yesterday, can he? Is he just pandering to his constituents in rural Kentucky?

Justi: What does Nolan Gorman need to do to get into your top 100 at midseason? Is the lack of inclusion on your list due to swing and miss issues?
Keith Law: I had him in my top 50.
Keith Law: I mean, maybe just check my rankings before posting? It’ll make this a better experience for everyone.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Does a smaller sample size for someone like Julio Rodriguez, someone who the organization thought was advanced enough to tackle full season ball at 18, matter ever so slightly more? (enough to get excited, anyway)
Keith Law: No. Sample size doo doo do do do do, sample size doo doo do do do do…

Nick Grit: I’ve seen some pretty differing opinions on Casey Mize, with some referencing a ‘violent’ delivery and/or athleticism concerns. He has always struck me as a pretty complete pitcher coming out of college and pretty safe. It doesn’t seem like you are as worried as others about his health, is that accurate?
Keith Law: Yeah, those opinions to which you refer – and I honestly have never seen that anywhere – are wrong.

Bob: Better longterm outlook: Xavier Edwards, Tirso Ornelas, Josh Naylor.
Keith Law: Ornelas. All big leaguers though.

Blaine: Thanks for your review of the strategy game Wingspan. It’s beautifully made and a joy to play.
Keith Law: So good. I can’t wait till the next print run hits so I can tell you all to buy it.

Robert: Zack Brown has flown through the brewers system much like Corbin Burnes. What’s your report on him?
Keith Law: Also on my top 100.

Justin: Bryan Reynolds’ (obviously SSS, high babip, etc) hot start has me wondering. In general, how much can hamate surgery temporarily sap someone’s power? Would we be talking a full scouting grade?
Keith Law: I have heard estimates of up to 18 months – I remember an NHL player, Jason Allison (?), saying it took him that long to regain full strength after a broken wrist. I don’t think there’s a hard and fast rule, but I like to try to give guys a calendar year to get it back.

Ben: Any potential GUYS at LSU this year?
Keith Law: No.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Do you have any concerns about Vaughn, being a R/R 1B and all, going #2? Or is the bat that freaking good?
Keith Law: The bat is that fucking good, man.

Michael: Hi Keith- Thanks for the chat! I know you have said that baseball content outside of work feels like… well…work. But wondering if you have ever read the classic “Glory Of their Times” by Lawrence Ritter about the old days of baseball and what you thought of it.
Keith Law: I don’t think I ever read that one, although I read some books in that genre maybe 15-20 years ago. The whitewashing of the sordid parts of the game’s history grate on me.

ck: Keith, you had an exchange on Twitter last week about John Anderson of Minnesota allowing a pitch count to get dangerously high. Does he have a history of pitcher abuse? My sense is that in general he is very well regarded, and I had a personal experience with him (albeit over 30 years ago) that gave me a very favorable impression of him.
Keith Law: First time his name had come up in that context with me, but his inaction in that game was a major blunder.

Nelson: Do you think Acuna, Pache, and Waters will be the Braves’ 2021 Outfield?
Keith Law: I’ll buy that. And I’ll watch the hell out of it.

Grover: Why does the hypocrisy go over the heads of guys like Archer who beat their chest and flex after a strike out but take offense to a guy admiring the donger he just hit?
Keith Law: I understand your point, but as I said on Twitter about this, hypocrisy is beside the point. Throwing at a hitter is wrong, no matter who you are, and MLB should drop the hammer on those guys. It should go in the next CBA – you throw at a hitter, you get a mandatory suspension of, say, ten games. Enough to hurt the team, not just your paycheck, so your bosses and teammates might say, hey, cut that shit out, we need you to pitch.

Nils: You mentioned Mason Thompson in your ESPN article earlier this week. Is he long for the rotation or do you see him becoming a RP long term?
Keith Law: Starter.

Justi: Do the Reds bring up Senzel as soon as he’s healthy or are they gonna continue to be cute with him? He’s 23, what’s the holdup?
Keith Law: He’s hurt.

Ira: Do you have concerns about Chris Sale’s decreased average velocity on FB and general lack of usual dominance going back to middle of last season, especially given the extension he just received?
Keith Law: I’m concerned about the combination of reduced velocity and shoulder trouble from last year.

Ben: Any early rumblings at what the Tigers would do at 5? Do you think they would go for Witt if he falls or stick to college bats?
Keith Law: The list of six position players I mentioned above would apply to them too. Greene or Abrams, likely. Feel like they wouldn’t take Vaughn if he’s there.

Nick: Are you planning on seeing the West Virginia Power with Gilbert, Kelenic and Rodriguez?
Keith Law: If they come closer to me, and I’m free to go, sure. I don’t plan that far out.

TP: Can Freddy Peralta succeed as starter without better secondary pitches? Against the Reds last week, he threw 84 fastballs out of 100 pitches, but struck out 11 and gave up 2 hits over 8 IP. His other starts…not so great…
Keith Law: It’s all deception – his fastball isn’t very fast, but hitters don’t see it if he throws it up in the zone. I think he can start but have a lot of disaster starts along the way, to the point where he’s still valuable enough to start but that people in/out of the org wonder if he should be in a different role.

Josh: Was surprised not to see Dodgers’ Tulsa team on your loaded MiLB list. Not enough depth of talent there?
Keith Law: Right.

Michael: Any chance you saw that Gabe Kapler said that the Phillies can’t baby Roman Quinn? After all, Kapler said, he’s “not made of glass”. Wondering if you know if they actually had this confirmed by a medical doctor, as I have my doubts.
Keith Law: I actually thought he was made of glass, so this is big, if true.

Aaron G: Do the Yankees have the depth to lose Severino and not have to pick up Keuchel (and lose the draft pick)?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. At this point how much production would you project to get from Severino, with rotator cuff inflammation and now a lat injury that will probably keep him from pitching in the majors until at least June 1st?

Hoz: Hello Keith! Do you think Domingo German can stick and develop further into a 2 or 3 sp? Much thanks
Keith Law: No, I think he’s a reliever.

Jim: Is Josh Naylor’s bat good enough to supplant Franmil / Renfroe in SD as soon as opening day next season?
Keith Law: Reyes and Renfroe are outfielders, so no.

Everyone: ESPN’s updates on the website are whack. No pitching starts pace indicator and the FantasyCast is garbage compared to years past. So I guess my question is, what the hell?
Keith Law: Well, if I had anything to do with that, that would be useful, but this isn’t even an ESPN chat.

Mark: Do you post Klawchat schedules anywhere?I get the newsletter, is there somewhere else I need to look ? Thanks
Keith Law: I shoot for Thursdays at 1 pm when I’m not traveling. I can tell you now next week I’ll be on the road.

Bloop: So. How’d the mythical Robert look?
Keith Law: He went 0 for 5 with two punches. The universe is mocking me.

Jo-Nathan: How high would Jasson Dominguez go in the draft this year if eligible?
Keith Law: Not that high. The two pools aren’t very comparable to begin with, given the players’ ages, but what I’ve heard on Dominguez doesn’t make him a top ten talent or anything.

Adam Trask: FYI, Cuban Baseball Federation is not run by the Cuban government. It is run by the Cuban Olympic Committee, which answers to the International Olympic Committee.
Keith Law: “Answers to” is not the same thing. Who funds the Federation? Not the IOC, right?

Anya: Michigan State basketball rape story in the NY Times today. OMFG, what is wrong with colleges when it comes to sports…
Keith Law: College sport fandom is like a cult. Last June, Oregon State abused one of its pitchers, Kevin Abel, to win the CWS, throwing him 129 pitches the day after he’d thrown a 23-pitch relief outing. He was 19, so even the 129 was over the PitchSmart limit for his age, and that limit assumes regular rest before the start. I called them out at the time, and Pat Casey, the OSU coach, said people criticizing him were just haters (that we “didn’t want them to win,” I believe, as if I give two shits who wins the CWS). Abel has been hurt much of the spring and now has to have Tommy John surgery. I pointed this out yesterday … and was immediately set upon by OSU fans who are suddenly experts in pitching injuries in mechanics. They believe exactly what they want, and only what they want, rather than consider that the team or its players or its coaches might be less than perfect.
Keith Law: Also, Casey did the same to Drew Rasmussen, running him out for full outings just a year off TJ, enough that Rasmussen flunked his physical with the Rays and required a second TJ less than two years after his first one.

Chuck: Cedric Mullins a AAA guy, AAAA guy or MLB guy?
Keith Law: Bench/up-and-down guy.

Ben: When does Milb present to us a remotely friendly site and app? This is ridiculous!
Keith Law: MILB turning its app from a useful one to a completely useless one is the most bizarre thing I’ve ever seen on that platform. Apps are supposed to improve, and add features, right?

E: You have mentioned a weaker draft class numerous times this year. Is there a chance no draftees crack the top 20 prospects next year?
Keith Law: Rutschman maybe, otherwise no.

Jake L.: Are you a believer in the Forbes Team values? The Rays, to no surprise, scoff that the team is now worth 1.01 Billion dollars
Keith Law: They’re educated estimates, but hardly precise. It’s very difficult to properly value an asset that not only isn’t publicly traded but the sale of which is effectively regulated by a third party.

Brian Godish: Once the season starts, how do you divide up your time between MLB, the minors, and draft prep? I picture your office with 6 screens this time of year.
Keith Law: Watching draft guys on TV is mostly useless to me. The angles are all wrong.

Guest: Can you confirm Luis Robert is real now?
Keith Law: I can confirm this.

scott: Jake Mangum looks like he will finish as the all time hits leader in the SEC. Does he have any professional future?
Keith Law: Professional yes, major-league no.

Jeff: It seems Oregon State lies about the nature of Abel’s injury. Shouldn’t there be some repercussions from the NCAA?
Keith Law: Ahahahahahahahahah oh my god that’s hilarious. No, they’ll probably suspend a different player for accepting a free sip of water.

Jerry: Last night’s performance out of the bullpen for James notwithstanding, if the back end of the Astros rotation isn’t doing the job by summer would James and/or Whitley bring enough to the table to keep the good times rolling or would it be time to start shopping Tucker and others for a big time SP?
Keith Law: Why not both? Try Whitley and James while exploring the market for Tucker.

Big Fan: Is ‘Insert Player’ from ‘Insert Favorite Team’ going to be awesome this year based on ‘Insert Small Sample Stat’?
Keith Law: I’m trying to skip most of those questions this week, but yeah, that’s about the size of it. Nobody knows which great/terrible start is real.

Jeff: Does it make any sense that Abel would feel a twinge in his elbow while rehabbing after being shut down for an alleged bad back?
Keith Law: When I was with the Jays, Jeff Niemann was a potential first-rounder at Rice (heh) and missed some starts his junior year with what was reported as a groin injury. One of my colleagues asked in a group discussion about potential picks if that was the groin that’s attached to the elbow ligament.

Esteban: Have you heard old town road by lil nas x? Thots?
Keith Law: I hate that fucking song already.

Bobby D: It the recent past it seems that you have been reading more. Were/are your motivations tied to your writing or more along the line of personal enjoyment?
Keith Law: I’m still reading at my usual pace. Just started The Inheritance of Loss yesterday.

Eric: Some people on Blue Jays twitter are starting to get excited about Patrick Murphy…justified? Any insights you can share?
Keith Law: It’s two starts.

Brian Godish: Maybe Madrigal played and you just couldn’t see him…
Keith Law: On the contrary, I could look him right in the eyes.

nelson: Talk about the black hole
Keith Law: I’m just trying to figure out how we can fire all the anti-vaxxers right past its event horizon.

Mike: If the over/under was set at “1” on Big League Regulars among McKinney, Jansen, Teoscar, Gurriel, Tellez and Drury, would you take the over?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jay: At what point do the draft picks become unattached to free agents? That’s the day I think we see deals for Kimbrel & Keuchel
Keith Law: After the draft.

Guest: Keith, any idea if ESPN+ will get folder into Disney+ whenever it comes out?
Keith Law: I was just discussing this with someone last night – I don’t know, and my gut is that they’ll be separate services, but how great would it be if they were combined or even bundled like Spotify/Hulu? (UPDATE: Disney announced this afternoon that there will indeed be some sort of bundle.)

Chris: Not even looking at the statline, Amed Rosario looks like a different player this year. Turning on balls inside while displaying better patience. Exciting.
Keith Law: Cautiously optimistic on that one. Hitting balls harder, not getting them quite enough into the air. At some point after Brooklyn his swing got a little flatter.

Mark: I was watching a show on T.V the other day called ,”The best Thing I ever Ate.” Curious what as to what your answer would be.
Keith Law: A longtime reader & correspondent (who seems to have vanished from the internet completely, so I’m a bit worried about her) asked me that years ago, and my answer was the meatballs with tomato sauce and lardo at Boston’s Coppa. I no longer eat beef, so that dish will have to remain a memory, but I could also offer the duck carnitas at Cosme in NYC, the piedras y oro dessert at Xochi in Houston, the Wiseguy pizza at Phoenix’s Pizzeria Bianco, the grilled carrots with jalapeño chimichurri and apricot puree at Juniper and Ivy … okay, this might get long…

Keith: What insights (if any) did seeing Luis Robert in person give you?
Keith Law: Swing is better than I expected. At bats were not. My goodness he is a large man.

Chris: I got to watch a lot of Kyle Isbel and Nathan Eaton play last year in the Pioneer league and came away really impressed by both. Any thoughts on either of those guys? Any reason for optimism?
Keith Law: First two games with Isbel weren’t promising. I’ll see him a ton more this spring, though.

Nick: For the Phils, would signing Keuchel and moving Pivetta to the pen make more sense than just signing Kimbrel? (Not that either scenario is likely.)
Keith Law: Yes but I think they still view Pivetta as a long-term starter. I think he’s too vulnerable to LHB.

Steve (nyc): You have mentioned how it is like work when being in large social settings. I have similar experience and can’t get spouse to understand why I don’t always want to entertain. How do you handle this?
Keith Law: To what extent does your spouse understand why you feel this way? Explaining your anxiety or discomfort may help. Even asking them to read something that gets into what anxiety is and why we feel it could help them understand.

Big Time Timmy Jim: You’ve maintained that you never questioned Luis Severino’s stuff, only whether or not he can hold up longterm given the delivery and body. In two consecutive years, his stuff worn down in the 2nd half, and how with real shoulder/arm issues to start 2019. While I know you don’t advocate for any pitchers to be injured (and actively root for them to succeed, even if it means you’re ‘wrong’), is there just a small part of you that wants to say “This is what I was talking about, guys.”?
Keith Law: Yes, it occurs to me – I took this question, which some readers might interpret as prima facie evidence that I’m gloating – but i find it nauseates me to think about taking pride or pleasure in a player’s injury, if that makes sense. I’ve said this before – that baseball player who fails is a grown-up kid who always dreamed of being a major leaguer. I get physically uncomfortable when fans mock, heckle, or just boo opposing players who fail. I get that most fans do this stuff or think it’s fine or even funny, but that’s still a human on the receiving end of the invective.

Jerry: Carlos Correa has been pretty adamant that he won’t sign an extension. Good for him. I think every player should make as much as they can. Assuming he walks do the Astros have any SS-3B types in the minors who project as better than average MLBers by the time he’s a FA?
Keith Law: I hear Betts is the same way. Right now, no, I don’t think they do.

Mike : Why do you keep saying Kelenic was the Mets top prospect when your list is the only one that has him ahead of Gimenez
Keith Law: Because … it’s … my … list.

Newt: I don’t know if he’ll ever hit consistently, but man, watching Byron Buxton break the sound barrier rounding second en route to his triple last night was jaw-dropping.
Keith Law: And at the plate, he looks like he did for most of 2017, too. I’m optimistic.

Lawl: Too early for top of the draft rumblings? White Sox have a chance at Vaughn?
Keith Law: They pick third so yes. If I had to guess – this is a guess, people, not based on much info at all – I’d say picks 1-2-3 were Rutschman, Witt Jr, Vaughn. Maybe then Abrams/Greene in some order, although neither did himself any favors at NHSI with 20+ directors and several GMs in attendance.

Tim Apple: Do the early struggles of the CWS make it more likely that they will call up Cease, Madrigal, et al this summer or less likely? Stadium is empty but does control outweigh draw or vice versa?
Keith Law: Cease is a no-doubt callup, isn’t he? They’re going to need more starters no matter what, just with typical attrition, and what if Reynaldo Lopez’s bad start is more than just SSS? Madrigal I doubt we see but I would be shocked if Cease isn’t up by July 1st.

Pete: How do you usually watch MLB each night? Lots of flipping between games or mostly settle in for one on each time slot?
Keith Law: Depends on the night. Lately I’ve been watching a lot of the Padres because they nearly always have someone I want to see. Some nights I just bounce around close games.

MikeM: Yankees blog River Ave Blues is closing shop. They were one of the sites that really got me into baseball analytics and led me to learn a lot as a fan. I will miss their contributions to the baseball discussion (not withstanding Mike’s job with CBS sports). More baseball blogs should be like that and less reactionary.
Keith Law: Yes, they were one of the best team-specific blogs, and, in my opinion, a good bit less prone to the sort of jingoistic fandom into which even many decent blogs fall. I’ll always have fond memories of the one commenter there who called me a racist for omitting Donavan Tate from my top 100 the winter after Tate was the #3 pick in the draft.

Ben: How can we tell when a hot start is the 1% of times when it is real and not the 99% when it is a SSS? We hear so much about “swing tweaks” and trying out new pitches now that it seems like there is a report of something “different” on every player with a hot start.
Keith Law: I do not believe we can. We can guess, but that’s all we’re doing.

Chris P: This is the time guys generally pick up helium before the draft, so are there any guys you’ve been hearing about so far that are making the jump?
Keith Law: I wrote about Hunter Bishop a few weeks ago. Josh Wolf is a prep RHP in Texas who has surged. Josh Mears in Seattle is another one. Blake Walston in NC.

BigDaddeh: What are your thoughts on how much rest from baseball preteen kids should have. Not talking showcase circuit or max effort radar gun efforts, but fall ball after spring and summer and things like that
Keith Law: Pitchers should take at least 100 days off from throwing. I know that’s a bit of an arbitrary number but it seems in line with most of the recommendations I’ve heard from people I know with teams and from sources like PitchSmart.

Fan boy : Favorite minor league atmosphere within driving distance of your home?
Keith Law: Reading.

romorr: Adley is it at 1.1, right? No getting cute with underslot than overslot?
Keith Law: Why not? If you could sign Vaughn, save $1MM, and go grab JJ Goss for $3 million at your second pick, wouldn’t you do that?

Daniel: Hi Keith. Thank you for offering your fans this forum. What do you think is the reason that Forrest Whitley is not with the major league club? Is this more to give him innings due to the lack of them last season or a manipulation of the service time rule? I would think he is a better option than Peacock at this point.
Keith Law: Barely pitched last year at all.

Tony Montana: Is Jordyn Adams one of the highest ceiling players in the minors that is currently outside the top 100?
Keith Law: That’s reasonable.

Draft pick compensation: HEY! Don’t blame me for Keuchel/Kimbrel not signing. These guys think they’re getting $18M+ for 4+ years.
Keith Law: I would believe it hurts Kimbrel more than it hurts Keuchel.

JR: How would you handle Smith/Alonso if you were the Mets GM? Seems like two really good candidates at same position, but given Alonso is getting bulk of playing time a trade of Smith would be selling low on him?
Keith Law: I think Smith is trade bait. Even if Alonso slumps, he’s going to hold that job for a while – they’re not going to switch the guys if Alonso has a bad week. Helps that Smith looks good physically and has been solid in his minimal playing time.

Jake L.: When you are on a scouting trip, do you prefer to eat food at local restaurants or do actually eat at fast food chains once in awhile?
Keith Law: Local whenever I can. I do eat at Panera from time to time because I can eat something healthful while working too.

Esteban: Do you get more groupies (fans) from espn, food or writing/ reading books good? I like picturing fans waiting outside your hotel for autographs
Keith Law: I do not have groupies. I’m not sure I’d want groupies, but regardless, I do not have them. As for fans, I’ve been honored by how many of you have come to my various book signings.

Erik: thoughts on Minor League Baseball restricting usage of video from the games? Just saw that Baseball America took down all the in-game videos from their site.
Keith Law: Terrible. Waiting to hear if this is permanent and, if so, what they’re thinking.

MATT DAMON: Have you been able to see Cal Stevenson yet?
Keith Law: A tenth-round senior sign? Did I miss something?

Ben: Re Buxton, watching Billy Hamilton score from second on a fly out (is it scored as a sac fly??) was incredible.
Keith Law: Yep, that’s a sac fly.

Rod: When is the next mock draft coming?
Keith Law: You have never seen a mock from me before May 1st.

MATT DAMON: What happened to Logan Warmoth? He was ranked pretty high in your 2017 draft lift
Keith Law: Contact quality has been totally absent with wood. I’m floored – I thought his swing was good and was told his exit velocities in college were no worse than solid.

Brodie Van Jump on the Bandwagon: I am pleasantly surprised at Pete Alonso’s overall hitting– approach, hitting to all fields, etc. I recall you weren’t super high on him… I know it’s a small sample size, but he’s been pretty impressive on the hitting side, right? I think a 25 HR/90 RBI season and hiting .280+ may not be out of the question, especially if the Mets offense keeps on hitting. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I could see .280/25, and I could see .250-.260/30-35. I think I could see the latter more easily.

Matthew: I have recently entered the world of publicly published articles — I have to ask, how do you block out the unkind portion of a legitimate criticism, especially if the critique is a fair one?
Keith Law: Ignore. It invalidates the entire commentary for me.

Chris: Where does Hayden Simpson rank on your “WTF First Round Picks” list? The Cubs had some whiffs around that time period, but that was an all-timer, wasn’t it?
Keith Law: I believe that was one of only two times since I started this job that someone took a player in the actual first round I hadn’t heard of (although someone reminded me I did know who Simpson was, I had just totally dismissed him from my mind). The other was Kevin Matthews, 33rd overall in 2011 by Texas; he never got out of low-A with the Rangers, and had just one pro outing above A-ball at all, pitching in indy ball in 2018.

romorr: I’ve heard this here and there, but any truth to Trout falling in the draft because of Billy Rowell?
Keith Law: That was one variable among many, yes.

Charlie Indio Montoyo: Keith. I really respect your opinion alot. I just want to know why you think Thornton has below average command and control. He’s had a a 1.7 BB/9 in his entire minor league career (spanning nearly 450 IP), and he’s been able to locate his pitches really well in his first 2 starts (granted small sample size obviously).
Keith Law: Walk rate is not command.

Jake L.: How are you doing today after dunking on “the stick to baseball guy ” in regards to the Schilling thing? I don’t know if I ever laughed so much
Keith Law: I mean, my internal reaction to anyone who says “stick to baseball” is “go fuck yourself,” but rare is anyone so stupid as to non-ironically say “stick to baseball” when I’m actually commenting on baseball.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all so much for reading. I do not think I’ll get to chat next week, and depending on travel/weather, the next chat will probably be April 24th. Enjoy your weekends, and if you’re at any of the Texas Tech/WVU games this weekend, I should be there for the one Alek Manoah pitches.

Keith Law: Cause only when I try am I happier to see. Klawchat.

Tyler Y.: All SSS caveats apply, but the A’s have already gotten one uncharacteristically good turn out of a mediocre (at best) rotation. After last years chicken salad out of chicken sh#$ performance, is there something Oakland is doing to coax a better performance out of the Brett Anderson’s and Aaron Brooks’ of the world than anyone could possibly expect? Or is this all just defense and ballpark (in which case, maybe they are smart to invest less in SP).
Keith Law: No, I think it’s ballpark, defense, and good luck. Their ERA through that one turn is far better than their peripherals might imply.

Jay: I suppose I understand why some people are upset at the upcoming 3 batter minimum rule, but, count me amongst the fans of the rule. Commercial breaks in the middle of an inning are the worst. And, even really bad RPs with terrible splits have a 35% chance of a 1-2-3 inning
Keith Law: I thought a 2 batter minimum would do it. I agree that mid-inning breaks are the worst actual pace-of-play problem (as opposed to overall game length, which I think is what many people mean when tey say “pace of play”).

CH: Do you think Keuchel and Kimbrel end up sitting out this year? Seems more likely by the day.
Keith Law: No, and I don’t think it’s becoming any more likely, either.

Boilermaker: Keith, thanks for the chats. If mlb goes to robot umps for balls and strikes, what does that do to the value of catchers who are good pitch framers? Assuming it nullifies that value, do you think teams are considering that when they negotiate catcher contracts now?
Keith Law: It will nullify that value – as it should – but I don’t think teams are thinking that far in advance.

Jay: My memory is not what it was, but I remember Hunter Greene being a top SS prospect at the time of the draft. Is pitching that scarce when it’s more beneficial to accept near certain injury and a lost year of development than it is to develop a prospect as a position player that can be in the MLB quicker and more than likely have a longer career?
Keith Law: No, he was a great defender at short with some power but a below-average hit tool. He was and still is a much better prospect on the mound.

Greg: If you ran the Red Sox what kind offer would you make to Mookie?
Keith Law: I’d start at Trout and expect him to want far more. He’s worth it, but then again, I think Trout’s deal undervalued him a little bit too.

Jerry: Could the flurry of extensions and the adding of Tatis, Jr, Jimenez, etc to opening day rosters be a bargaining move by the owners to try and fend off a work stoppage?
Keith Law: I do not believe so. I don’t see how that would work anyway, since there are, what, a minimum of 750 MLBPA members?
Keith Law: (I’m blanking on whether all 40-man players are in the union or if they need a day of service.)

Marshall MN: Hi Keith, my mom was recently diagnosed with an incurable terminal illness (I am not fishing for sympathy), and it is insane how quickly the naturopath quacks come out of the woodwork to offer remedies to solve this. It is always done with “best intentions” of course, but it is getting very hard to keep my temper in check with these fools.
Keith Law: I’m very sorry to hear that news, Marshall, but please, lose your temper on those quacks. Naturopathy is woo. It’s just bullshit to separate desperate or gullible people from their money.

Jerry: Has your opinion on Kyle Tucker changed any? I believe the underlying numbers that show he was unlucky in his brief time in the majors in 2019. At the same time I’ve read that some in the organization are souring on his long term outlook. I feel like it would be a panic move and big mistake to move him.
Keith Law: My opinion hasn’t changed, but if they trade him for someone who helps them right now, I wouldn’t necessarily call it a mistake. It all depends on the return – maybe two years of a good major league starter now would justify trading six years of Tucker.

Darren: Hi Keith, so Eric Lauer was the opening day starter for the Padres, which was unexpected. Good young pitcher, but what do you see as his upside?
Keith Law: Fourth starter. Maybe a little below-average over the course of his career. But a starter.

Jerry: What’s your impression of Laureano? Was he projected to be this good? Could the Astros have gotten more for him?
Keith Law: Ramon? 2 WAR player last year. That’s probably about right. I said good things about him after his AFL in 2016, but didn’t put him on my top 100. The Astros’ mistake was altering his swing, which led to the bad 2017 and loss of his value.

John: Thoughts/reactions to the news that Hunter Greene is getting Tommy John surgery?
Keith Law: Disappointed, but hardly surprised – of the three major prospects I can think of who had similar elbow issues last year, two have had TJ (him and Dunning), and Sixto is heading to extended rather than to double-A. I don’t think this is a huge hit for Greene other than pushing his timetable back a year. The funny (peculiar) part is that, as so often happens with guys right before TJ, he apparently looked fantastic in Arizona. Puk had that last year too and then blew out.

Jerry: Nick Tanielu. Possible MLB contributor or just Spring Training noise?
Keith Law: I don’t even look at spring training stats so I don’t know what the noise would be. I don’t think he’s even a bench bat.

Steve: Twitter sometimes recommends tweets liked by who I follow, and frequently recommends tweets that you like. I know “liking” a tweet does not necessarily mean endorsement, but have noticed you like several pro-abortion tweets of late, and was curious how you use science to inform your stance on that issue. Can a mother abort her fetus at 4 weeks, 8 weeks, or 32 weeks? Where do you draw the line (if anywhere)?
Keith Law: I’m not “pro-abortion.” I am pro-choice, and I oppose any intrusion of religion into our secular government. As for your second question, you didn’t give me enough information to answer. If that fetus at 32 weeks is nonviable or going to die shortly after birth, shouldn’t that be a decision between the pregnant woman and her doctor, with no input from you or me?

Scott: Red Sox fan from Delaware…..heading to Frawley Stadium this weekend to see Salem…anyone on their roster that would be of interest?
Keith Law: You can cross-check the Salem roster against my Red Sox prospect ranking: https://klaw.me/2GtRDcK

Evan: True / False: Michael Conforto will end the year as the most valuable player on the Mets? Pitchers included.
Keith Law: I’ll go with true. Always been a huge fan of his bat.

J.P.: Thoughts on the Acuna extension?
Keith Law: Feels like a bad deal for him. I understand any player that age taking the security of the deal, but even considering his lack of leverage in 2019-20, if he becomes the player we all expect him to become, this will be a huge windfall for Liberty Media.

Kyle: KeBryan Hayes is on a June call-up path or does he need a full season remaining in the minors?
Keith Law: June sounds good to me. Don’t think he needs a full season or close to it.

Tadd: If Andujar does need the season-ending shoulder surgery, is there somebody on your Yankees radar who would be an obvious replacement?
Keith Law: Internally? I don’t think so. I guess Estrada could slide over there but he’s not what they would want.

Juwan: If Robles develops 25 hr a year power, is he a superstar?
Keith Law: Yes but nobody I spoke to about him this winter thought he’d end up with that kind of power.

Deke: How hard is it for you to overcome initial evaluations on a player that don’t pan out? I was right with you on Hosmer as a prospect, and to this day I find myself willing it to still happen, but you’ve pretty clearly turned on that.
Keith Law: There’s no ‘right’ time to change an evaluation, but I do think we have to start rethinking probabilities of projections even into a player’s first season in the majors … that 40% chance of a player becoming a star might only be 20-25% a year later. And then…

Marc: Lucas Giolito had some success with a shortened arm motion in his first start. Can these type of adjustments work long term? Any injury concerns?
Keith Law: …you get Giolito working with a shorter but clean arm stroke that had him locating his fastball to the corners along with what might be the best changeup I’ve seen him throw. Prospects are still humans; they don’t develop on our schedule.

W&M: Be glad you didn’t go to college at William and Mary. Terrible record on mental health and punishing students who open up about mental health and anxiety issues. If I could do it over, I never would have gone.
Keith Law: Is that true? Any public record on this? They’re a state school, which makes this even more disappointing.

grant : Do you have any opinion on what education a college kid should get if their trying to go into baseball? Trying to decide if i should study something like stats or computer science
Keith Law: That combination sounds like a perfect one to me.

Kevin W: Has ESPN ever asked you to tone down your twitter feed (and I’m so glad you don’t)?
Keith Law: Sort of. I won’t.

Mac: Is Nick Lodolo going to pitch himself into the top 10 picks?
Keith Law: Possible but I would not take him there.

Patrick: How about my team’s start? Look like division winners! Absolutely I can project their finish from this excellent first half-week!
But seriously Keith, as April snows hit today, I ask–how much can/do you take weather into account when checking out collegiate players? Do you consciously avoid cold-weather scouting trips?
Keith Law: I do – I’d rather see a pitcher on a day with at least moderate weather. I did see Logan Gilbert last spring on a 42 degree day in Newark, which got me a fair look at him but was miserable for everyone involved, myself included.

Dr. Bob: If a team was bad at something last year and they still are through 5 games can any conclusions be drawn or are we still just in SSS-verse?
Keith Law: If the personnel hasn’t changed, then you can carry forward the conclusion you drew from last year.

Dalton: Time worry about the Braves youth on the mound?
Keith Law: It’s April 2nd.

Luke: Does Pete Alonso’s start mean anything to you or too much of a SSS to mean anything?
Keith Law: It’s April 2nd. Sam-ple size doo doo do do do do…

Nelson: Ive been trying to read Booker and Pulitzer winning fiction, but I find most are just not very fun reads. Its like Oscars for best picture, maybe great works of fiction, but not the most fan friendly. Any recent winners that your recommend in a page-turner type of way?
Keith Law: All the Light We Cannot See, The Sense of an Ending, The Underground Railroad, Lincoln in the Bardo, The Sellout, The Orphan Master’s Son.

Dr. Bob: The transactions made by Toronto the past couple of weeks raises the question: What is Toronto’s plan?
Keith Law: I’m not quite sure, to be honest.

Nick: I know its super super super early and I think he only has 1 walk, but it looks like Amed Rosario’s is really starting to turn a corner from a plate discipline perspective. In his game winning hit yesterday, he laid off 2 nasty breaking balls before ripping a 2-0 fast ball for a hit. No doubt last year he would have swung at least one of those sliders. If Amed reaches his potential and learns to get on base more, he adds some seriously needed athleticism to that roster and can make the Mets have a pretty darn scary lineup.
Keith Law: Although I generally agree with you, he needs to try to elevate the ball more – when I saw him in March, he was still coming down at the ball at the point of contact enough that I think he’s going to hit too many groundballs.

Jeff: How do you normally finish off a sous vide bath? Smoking hot grill? Sear on cast iron?
Keith Law: Cast iron/carbon steel.

Michael Conforto: I haven’t seen much downside for Mayor Pete. I don’t even love his “religious left” platform, but the justification is thoughtful and admirable. What have you seen?
Keith Law: I’d agree. I admit that I find his overall intelligence extremely appealing, and might be overreacting to the lack of intelligence of the current occupant. I would like to see Elizabeth Warren getting at least the same kind of adulation for her own, similar practice of putting policy proposals first.

Danny: You see the Mets Columbia roster? Szapucki, Woods-Richardson, Mauricio, Newton, Vientos!! (side note: what are they going to do playing-time wise? Newton get OF reps?)
Keith Law: I would guess Newton slides to 2b. Mauricio needs to play most of the time at SS. Continued positive reports on him from minor league ST.

Sarah: If Vlad Guerrero Jr is up in two weeks does he hit 30 HR? 300 BA?
Keith Law: I’d guess 20-25 HR, .300ish AVG, OBP in the mid-.300s.

Carl: Re: your linked-to deadspin piece on ballparks pricing out fans. Do you think this is detrimental to the long-term health of the sport, even if they are maximizing profits now?
Keith Law: I do. You can absolutely alienate too much of your fan base like that, and if those people stop watching or buying merch or paying for MLB.tv, the sport is in trouble.

Amy: Is anyone left to be a FA this fall? These extensions are fascinating, and probably too comforting for the owners. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I don’t think any extension so far has looked like a bad one for the owners. Some have looked fair, others too team-friendly.

Sage: Trying to teach myself guitar. Struggling with chord change speed. Any recs?
Keith Law: Repetitions, and make sure you’re using the optimal fingering to make those changes. Most chords can be played in 3+ ways, so you can set up the next chord change with how you finger the current one.

Patrick: Oh, sure, just as I’m about to ask a music question, I see you dropped March’s new playlist. See you later, going down that rabbit hole…
Do you ever catch live shows? Anxiety not make it comfortable? Or prefer time w/ the family and ‘consuming’ music at your own convenience?
Keith Law: Haven’t been to a show in a year-plus for a variety of reasons. Just met someone recently who shares a lot of my tastes in music and we’ve talked about hitting shows together once my draft travel slows down. She insists I’m going to learn to like Josh Ritter, though…

Debo: Thoughts on Joe Biden giving kisses?
Keith Law: I was done with him as a candidate before then. I guess I’m extra done now. And shame on Alyssa Milano for failing to back up Ms. Flores, instead talking about what a nice guy Biden is. Just because a man didn’t harass or assault YOU doesn’t mean he never did it to anyone else.

MikeM: Im hoping Mayor Pete will use this platform to get some visibility and turn it into a senate seat the next time one is up in Indiana. The Senate is really important and Democrats seem to overlook everything but the presidency.
Keith Law: Yes, and yes, although I too find it hard to think about anything but the presidency when the President is lying about everything on Twitter (no, we did not send Puerto Rico $91 billion in hurricane relief, we sent a paltry $1.5 billion, and he once again implied it’s not part of the US, which it is).

Kevin W: I used to believe this country would never elect somebody named Barack Obama (especially so soon after 9/11) so it gives me hope most people can get past a gay man.
Keith Law: Fun intellectual exercise: Would American voters sooner elect a gay white man or any woman? I think the former.

Ben: Good recs re the Man Booker/Pulitzer list, but is Sense of an Ending a page-turner, or just short? It’s so bleak!
Keith Law: His prose is gorgeous. I tore through it. The movie was solid too although it can’t pack the same punch as the revelation at the end of the book.

Jonathan: Anything to David Hess, other than a really good start last night?
Keith Law: No, I think he ends up a long man or 5th/6th starter.

Alan: How is Carter Stewart faring these days? Do you view him as a top-10 pick this year?
Keith Law: I saw him last month and wrote it up here: https://klaw.me/2Hk6dF1
Keith Law: BTW I’ll be at the NHSI tournament this week, along with Kiley from Fangraphs and some of the BA guys. Top prospects there include Riley Greene, CJ Abrams, Rece Hinds, Brennan Malone, Kendall Williams, and Jack Leiter.

MikeM: How worried should the Yankees be about Hicks’ back? Its been 2 weeks since his 2nd cortizone shot and he still hasnt started baseball activities.
Keith Law: I’m worried. And I have long been a huge Hicks fan.

Amy: Does the Andujar injury make the Yankees seriously regret not being in on Manny?
Keith Law: You could never have foreseen this injury, so in some sense it would be wrong to say that’s the reason they should regret not trying harder to sign Machado. The better reason is that Manny was an upgrade over Andujar in the first place, and they chose not to get better when they had the financial wherewithal to do so. The cost of doing nothing at third base just doubled.

Kretin: Do you use any programs such as Rocksmith for practicing guitar? Highly recommend if you haven’t checked it out.
Keith Law: Thank you. I just practice by playing/learning new songs (and then playing snippets on Instagram, thank you all for humoring me).

Jay: Speaking of mlb.tv, can we PLEASE do away with blackouts? I’m annoyed I can’t watch my local team without paying for cable
Keith Law: Shame on MLB if they don’t negotiate an end to blackouts for that product. Just air the games and send some of the payments to the local RSNs.

jimmyb40: Keith, no question here. Just want to say that I appreciate all of your writing, at Paste, ESPN, and here. I don’t interact much on chats, I don’t interact on Twitter, and I’ve never met you at a game, but I still appreciate everything you do. I hope the bad apples aren’t getting to you too much, and there are us quiet types that want to be respectful and move conversations forward.
Keith Law: Thank you. I appreciate the kind words.

Ted: Is it too soon to conclude that Oakland completely blew it by drafting Beck and Murray with top 10 picks in the past 2 drafts?
Keith Law: Too soon on Beck but he looks terrible. Murray, I just don’t know what they knew at the time, but I know our draft experts at ESPN didn’t think Murray was going to be a first rounder, much less a potential #1 overall pick. (me, not a football fan: “Oh, like Dan Wilkinson? Or Ki-Jana Carter?”)

Juwan: For posterity, mark me down as a Nats supporter that doesn’t blame Harper one bit for not accepting the Nationals’ two low ball offers, doesn’t begrudge the man one bit for signing the best contract he was offered irrespective of location and how it would impact his former club, and a guy that won’t boo him even once for anything pertaining to his free agency decision.
Keith Law: I would like to think most Nats fans feel this way, but that we just hear from the most vocal ones.

PD: Has anyone tried to determine the risk premium charge that players pay to get the long term security from an extension? Yes, players want to get paid for what they’re expected to produce but there’s value to the player in knowing you’ll get paid long term versus the uncertainty going year to year.
Keith Law: I haven’t seen any research on this (feel free to send me a link if any of you have seen one, even in an academic paper). I completely agree on your second point. If that’s my kid, I’d say negotiate for every last dollar, but plan to sign.

Wayne: How concerned are you about Soroka’s shoulder? And, do you think we see Ian Anderson this year?
Keith Law: Very concerned about Soroka’s shoulder since it’s his second bout of soreness and I’d raised concerns about his arm swing prior to any injuries. For most teams I’d say no on Anderson, but we saw Wright and Touki and Wilson last year before I expected, so maybe for Atlanta yes.

Dr. Bob: Manny Machado 222/263/222 28 OPS+. See? Guys get comfortable after they sign big contracts. (Or was it, He doesn’t play hard? I forget.)
Keith Law: I will not out the writer, but someone posted a troll tweet after Harper had a bad game in the opener, and how Atlanta got so much more out of Matt Joyce, who signed for nothing. Not only was it unfunny trolling, but it was spiteful towards Harper. The fact that he signed that enormous deal should not color our opinion of his value or production.

Nick: re: Marshall MN’s comment and naturopathy. My mom was diagnosed with cancer over the summer (thankfully she is in remission now) and a few people suggested certain naturopath treatments and I straight up told them it was bullshit and that the only way she’ll get any better is by listening to her doctors. It shut them up, at least around me.
Keith Law: Good for you. Fire all those mountebanks into the sun.

Rob: Any hope for Alford as a regular?
Keith Law: He has the physical tools to be a regular, but neither the performance nor the history of durability to suggest he will become one.

Jason: I’m not looking forward to the Democratic primary at all. I can’t imagine a time in history when uniting behind a strong candidate who can win the election matters more, but yet you can already see through early donation amounts and social media people uniting behind Sanders, Warren, and Mayor Pete. As much as we might like their core policies, they aren’t going to resonate with most of the country. Am I crazy to think that a Biden or Klobuchar, while flawed certainly, is the way to go here?
Keith Law: I know too little about Klobuchar to say, but I am out on Biden – the harassment issues didn’t even come into play, as I don’t think Biden’s policy history is promising, and to be quite honest, I’d like someone who won’t turn 80 during his term, you know?

Craig: Obviously Knebel’s upcoming TJ surgery puts a dent in the Brewers bullpen. Other than Kimbrel (who they are wisely unwilling to overpay for) is there anyone they should be targeting for additional bullpen help?
Keith Law: I think/hope they’ll give Zack Brown relief innings as they did Burnes and Woodruff last year.
Keith Law: Maybe look for their Ryan Pressly, too.
Keith Law: (A guy they think they can tweak to improve, someone we would look at now and say is fine, but not the high-leverage solution you seek.)

JR: Pretty cool that Alonso and Tatis, Jr got their first MLB HRs on the same day. Hope they both have solid seasons and make for an exciting NL ROY race.
Keith Law: I wish Tatis’s had been earlier – actually even Alonso’s was after 10 pm, I think, so I’m guessing a lot of fans didn’t see them. I was out by the time Tatis homered. MLB needs to get those clips out on social early and often to push those kids in front of fans.

Jonathan: How is that not age-ism against Biden? Bernie is nearly the same age no?
Keith Law: When did I ever say I wanted Bernie? Age-related cognitive decline typically begins in a person’s 70s. Being younger than that would be a BFOQ.

Gritty: As a Nat’s fan, I’m going to boo Bryce Harper because he’s a phillie, not because he chased the $$$
Keith Law: Well that’s fair.

Brian: Posed this question to my Dad the other day and he basically laughed in my face – Schoop at $6 million to man 2B until Hiura is ready or Moustakas at $10 million to do the same? I still feel like Schoop is the better choice.
Keith Law: Same. Think you’ll get a lot more on defense.

Jco, San Fran: How long does Farhan need to rebuild the big league club and secondly, the system?
Keith Law: I think this one is a 4-5 year rebuild. System is still very thin above short-season ball.

ck: How do teams find out about DFA or waived players. Is there a group email or website or something? Also, how do you reach a player? Does a team have an index with phone numbers of all players and their agents or what? Thanks for all your content. Sorry if this was a dumb question…
Keith Law: When I was with Toronto we’d get multiple PDFs every day (I think three?) with transactions, including all players on the three types of waivers we had at the time. I imagine it’s a bit more streamlined now?

Rick Sanchez: When does Mize crack the majors? Do you view him as a future ace?
Keith Law: June 2020 and yes.

Matt: With the way the Indians OF situation looks, how soon does Mercado make his debut? Is his defense good enough to handle CF everyday?
Keith Law: Early this year and yes.

Chris: It must be in the West Palm Beach water, but but by pure coincidence (I hadn’t read your restaurant dish post) we tried The Leftovers and had the same exact experience with absolutely no seasoning on the fish. We also tried Captain Charlie’s (we were told that the owner of Leftovers and Food Shack used to be the head cook there) and my daughter had the same problem with her fish (mine was blackened and not noticeable). Seriously, how has this not been addressed before?
Keith Law: A slew of people recommended the Leftovers too, and the quality of the fish and other ingredients wasn’t a problem. But bah god i need some salt!

Alex: If you were a baseball fan growing up, would you say working in the industry deepens your appreciation for the sport, or does the work become too “work-like”? Asking because I am interested in getting a job in baseball, but don’t want to lose my passion for the game in the process
Keith Law: Baseball is work. I love what I do, but I have a hard time going to a game to just watch the game, and can’t get caught up in outcomes any more.

Joe: Is Adley R. major league ready now?
Keith Law: Absolutely not.

Ryan: Can Zimmer be a lock down closer, if the Royals decide to use him that way?
Keith Law: Teams typically expect closer to be able to pitch on back to back days, but I don’t think Zimmer has ever done that.

Jonathan: What was the positive development, that almost made you decide to stop writing? (If you can tell us)
Keith Law: I was saying that I felt much less of the typical desire to write because of some good and bad things that have happened recently. I don’t plan to stop writing entirely – a longtime reader emailed to ask if I was taking a team job and I said no. I don’t think I’ll ever go back at this point.

Ira: I know this seems like an oversimplification but regarding abortion shouldn’t the legality of the practice depend on the viability of the fetus? Isn’t that a fair line to determine a woman’s choice to abort?
Keith Law: Who makes that determination? And fair according to whom? I’d leave it to the woman and her doctor, and would rather see public policy focus on providing food, education, and health care to the many, many children who don’t have enough of those.

Mike: Looks like the Mets are going to staple Dom smith to the bench this year. Any chance he’s a solution for the Red Sox in a year? They don’t have any obvious in house candidates for that job next year, and moving Devers seems like quite a waste.
Keith Law: Interesting thought. Not sure I could see the Red Sox going unproven there, but I like it. I think Smith ends up with a second division team and then breaks out.

Ryan: As of right now would you rather have Mookie or Acuna?
Keith Law: Mookie but they’re both stars.

Joe: No way Pache makes it to the MLB this season right? Even if there were a spot for him I still feel there’s a year or more worth of development to go for him. Maybe he hits so much he proves me wrong, but there are fans acting like he’s taking over for Markakis in a few months
Keith Law: Ideally, no. I think the approach has to improve first, and that may require time and some struggling in AA/AAA. His defense was ready a year ago.

Harrisburg Hal: Do you have a good list of short story writers for someone who has read non-fiction exclusively for 25 years, but willing to dip his toe into fiction?
Keith Law: The best short story writer ever, in my NSHO, is F. Scott Fitzgerald. The rest are vying for second place. I read and enjoyed George Saunders’ Tenth of December. The Collected Stories of John Cheever is long but contains some absolute classics, including “The Swimmer.”

Josh: Any way Dom Smith can play OF as a regular?
Keith Law: No. They’ve tried this.

BD: Crazy for Luis Garcia to start at AA Harrisburg?
Keith Law: Crazy, no, but not ideal.

Ben: After seeing the rosters, which minor league team are you most looking forward to see thus far?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen all the rosters. Are they even all out? It’s not like I’m going to any minor league games until the Dash come here Monday anyway.

Brandon: Since someone mentioned Mercado I am wondering if you have seen Jhon Torres and have any thoughts on his long-term outlook?
Keith Law: I had notes on him in my Cards wrapup but I have not seen him in person.

Newt: Ever see a high-speed career implosion like Denise McAllister’s world-record performance on Saturday night?
Keith Law: I rather enjoyed that, since she’s just another preacher of hate. Of course, Bethany Mandel has tweeted some vile transphobic stuff and still has her gig, so (shrug).

Mike: Do you consider 70 games a small sample size? Because Jeff McNeil won’t stop raking and he’s added some pop this year as well. I think the guy’s for real
Keith Law: Yes, 70 games is a small sample size. I’m glad you think he’s for real.

40-man players: We ARE union members…
Keith Law: Yeah, I thought so, but I was second-guessing myself. So 1200+ members.

Frank: Bummed on Andujar. Likeable, hard working and seemingly bright future. From your experience, how bad is a labrum tear (throwing arm) for a third baseman?
Keith Law: I really can’t say. And I would imagine it depends on how bad the tear is, and thus how significant the surgery is. Plus he loses a year of reps in the field and at bats. But as for the surgery, I just don’t know enough to say.

Chris: My 11-year-old son plays little league, and I’ve been managing his teams for the past 4 seasons. He’s not great. But he’s not terrible. He just loves the game. On the other end of the spectrum, we have 3 players on our team that play for the local travel team. Since 3rd grade, they’ve been “conditioning” beginning in January through August, and work with former minor-league players at developing skill sets. 2 of these players are already at the point where they’re tired and just don’t want to continue. And that’s a shame. I feel like we’re doing kids a disservice by forcing them into this where they want to quit. Where’s the line? [ends Jack Morris rant]
Keith Law: That’s insane. It seems like the parents are just pushing the kids rather than letting the kids decide any of their own fates (like, do they want to play another sport too?)

Steve O: If Andujar does require season ending surgery, does that change his long term outlook? Other than losing a year of development, of course.
Keith Law: Probably not but I might reduce the probability of him becoming an average defender at any point.

Joe: Is there enough subjectivity in judging certain prospect tools to create a difference among scouts? For example, it is possible that a scout could be outstanding at judging a hit tool but not as good as another scout at judging the glove?
Keith Law: This is absolutely possible. The question is whether we could tell this about a given scout in time to make use of this knowledge.

Buck: Not trying to be snarky, honest, but can’t you just use the salt shaker on the table to get your fish flavored right?
Keith Law: No. There’s a big difference between salting food before/during cooking and doing to after. Salt draws moisture to the surface, and then some of that same moisture will be reabsorbed into the meat/fish, taking salt with it. If you salt at the table, you get salt on the surface but that’s it.

Mike: Surprised Jordan Balazovic is opening back in High-A?
Keith Law: He only pitched in low-A last year. High-A is what I expected.

Matt: I cancelled my MLB.tv account. I’m a Yankees fan. I’m supposed to shell out $150 for a “season package” when 1/3 of their games are blacked out? No thanks.
Keith Law: I can’t blame you.

Mayor Pete: Warren will be in her 70’s by the next election. Do you think she should also be disqualified?
Keith Law: Nine years younger than Biden. And I never said “disqualified.” Is this what’s next? Bad enough I get strawman-toting baseball trolls.

Riley: Edwin Diaz or Josh Hader best RP in baseball?
Keith Law: Why are those my only choices? Blake Treinen is offended.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I think I’ll be back to Thursday next week, given potential travel & some actual home games here at Frawley Stadium. Thank you all as always for all of your questions and for all of your kind words this week. Hir yw pob ymaros.

My annual list of potential breakout players is now up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: I need for you to be reasonable. Klawchat.

barbeach: KLaw thanks as always for the chat. What are your thoughts on Gio Gonzalez…does he have anything left?
Keith Law: More than that. I think he can be a league-average starter for someone. I find it very hard to believe his claim that he didn’t receive *any* offers before yesterday. Maybe he didn’t get any offers he thought were fair – I can believe that, in this market – but he would make at least 20 rotations better.

Bay of Puigs: hey Keith, can you please suggest a few NL starting pitchers who you expect will take a big step forward this year?
Keith Law: My breakouts column went up this morning: https://klaw.me/2Ctw1us Anyone I feel like that about is in the column.

Kid Koala: Is this the year Tyler Glasnow puts it all together?
Keith Law: I would bet no.

Richard: So it looks like Alex Reyes starts his season in the Cardinals’ pen. Think he can still develop into a Top 50 starter this year, or is health too great an obstacle?
Keith Law: I see two obstacles: The fact that he has barely pitched the last few years, which would make it unlikely he can jump to 100-120 innings without incident, and a delivery that seems to result in him getting hurt.

Ridley: With Miley and McHugh in the rotation, Peacock likely joining them and Whitley around in midseason, do you think Josh James can still be an impact starter in Houston this year? (Or ever)?
Keith Law: Yes, this year and going forward. I’d much rather start James than Peacock.

Moe Mentum: Besides baseball, what was the last professional sporting event you attended? How about attended *and enjoyed* if that’s a different answer?
Keith Law: I don’t remember. I went to a hockey game in Toronto in 2003 or so. That might be it. Even if I’m not working, being at a professional sporting event feels like I’m at work.

Scotty Jetpack: Hi Keith – do you see Kingery as anything more than a super-utility player moving forward? Based on his power/speed combo and success in the minors, I was expecting more, and most likely so were the Phillies’ brass when they handed him 6/$24M (with $65 total possible) before he even made his MLB debut. He was one of the worst position players in the MLB last year statistically, but due to his versatility, he’s currently the backup SS, 2B, and 3B and can also play OF in a pinch, which is valuable. But as long as we have Cesar Hernandez at 2B, I don’t see where he fits everyday. Thoughts?
Keith Law: He doesn’t fit everyday on the current Phillies but I think he’s going to end up a regular. He’s a ++ defender at second.

Ken: Chris Russo took a lame shot at you the other day on the radio saying what in the world did you know about sports in reference to a caller who called saying that the Angels were improving with the 7th ranked farm system. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I think you wasted your time listening to him. Go watch paint dry instead.

Alex: Best book for dealing with anxiety you’ve ever read?
Keith Law: Fully Present.

Perd Hapley: K-Law I have a question for you and my question is this. When does the international signing period begun and end…for those who callers who don’t know an international signing period is what?
Keith Law: Starts July 2nd, although the main prospects have agreements in place long before that, as much as two years before.

Craig Kimbrel: At this point, am I likely to get a bigger contract if I wait to sign until after the draft in June?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. The draft pick was never the issue; it’s the demand for a six-year deal plus the poor performance in October.

Ivan: Given the 2019 rotation uncertainty, should Atlanta sign Dallas Keuchel to a 1 year deal?
Keith Law: It wouldn’t hurt them but they have so much internal pitching depth I think they benefit less from adding Keuchel than most contenders would.

Alan: Hunter Bishop. Give us the deets! The helium legit? Is he a CF long-term? Should we expect a jump in your rankings?
Keith Law: Not a CF. Clearly a first-rounder right now.

Ben: What are you thoughts on what the Tiger’s should look to do at pick 5? Thanks
Keith Law: Best player available. That’s probably a college position player – I don’t think there’s a college starter in the top ten, and there might be just one HS pitcher up there.

Jarry: Thoughts on Ichiro’s two game farewell? I know they won so it didn’t hurt them, but offensively he’s at a Tebow level right now. Seems crazy that they did this.
Keith Law: Crazy how? Hall of Famer on both sides of the ocean gets to play his final games in his home country, with the MLB team where he spent most of his career, in two games that really don’t mean anything to Seattle since they’re not contending.

Zac: Eloy Jimenez extension good or bad? Will this be the new norm for teams to get 8 years of control?
Keith Law: Good for him, good for the team (with some risk), perhaps not great for players as a whole, but how could you tell any player to turn down that money when he has yet to earn a single big-league paycheck?

Dr. Bob: What do you think of Fangraphs incorporation of pitch framing into catcher’s WAR? Yadier Molina now moves up to 13th all time. He is in the negative on offense, but has the highest defensive numbers in history. Does this change the debate?
Keith Law: It doesn’t change the debate, although it was funny how many BFIBs seemed to think it did. This isn’t new data; it is a combination of data we already had. I said on Twitter, though, that I think Fangraphs made a colossal mistake in doing this. You can no longer use their WAR to compare catchers from this era to those in previous eras – was Johnny Bench a great framer, with his gigantic hands? Fisk? Carter? Maybe one of them was terrible, too, and we have no idea.

Zac: Are Michael Fulmers best years behind him?
Keith Law: I hope not.

Sean: Is durability in position players a real thing? Seems like injuries are randomly distributed and you can’t predict future games played based on prior injury history, but not sure which side the data supports, do you have any insights?
Keith Law: Yes. Staying healthy is a skill for position players. For pitchers, though, I don’t think we know much at all; by the time we can say a pitcher is durable his durability may be past tense.

Devin’s Cow: Hi Keith, please moooove this question to the top of your queue: what are your thoughts on these early regular season games in Japan? The week delay between these games and the rest of the opening days seems odd and sort of jarring. These feel more like international exhibition games, especially with the crazy early start times in the US.
Keith Law: Great for the sport, hard on the players.

Tom: So even though service time manipulation is no longer an issue with Eloy Jimenez signing a long-term deal, the Sox will still keep him down in AAA for some period of time, right? I mean, if they call him up right away isn’t that the same as admitting that they sent him down for non-baseball reasons in the first place?
Keith Law: What’s the consequence? If they call him up right away, so what? He’s not filing a grievance after signing this deal (and maybe agreed not to do so).

Sean: I keep reading that Nick Pivetta is going to break out this year. I am still very skeptical. What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: I do not believe so. I think he’s miscast as a traditional starter and see no reason to rethink that.

Jon V: The recent extensions make a lindor long term deal in Cleveland even more unlikely. Would you ride out his contracted window or look to move him at some point after this season?
Keith Law: I’d move him after this season, because I think you can get the sun and the moon for him.

J Dawg: How good can Braves Kyle Wright be this year?
Keith Law: Maybe league-average this year. Would probably guess a little below for now, although I think he has more potential in the long term.

Jon V: Does Bauer’s personality impact his trade value? Does his stated desire to go year by year after his arb years impact his trade value?
Keith Law: I am sure some teams would shy away from him, fearing that he’ll create some unwanted controversy or, worse, do something to get himself suspended, but his talent is also such that (I’m guessing) the majority of teams would just take him. There are teams that have no problem taking domestic abusers as long as they have a modicum of talent remaining. The Pirates welcomed Kang back after multiple DUIs, including a hit-and-run, and a sexual assault allegation.

Drew: How would you handle Chris Paddack this season for the Padres?
Keith Law: Just start the guy.

Jeff: Going up to Corvallis to watch Rutschman and Vaughn this weekend? That’s a nice matchup.
Keith Law: That’s the plan although the weather doesn’t look great.

Joseph: So were you completely against the Ichiro 2019 saga like you are against a hypothetical Tebow callup or are you a hypocrite?
Keith Law: How stupid must you be to compare a Hall of Famer like Ichiro to a guy who hasn’t even hit in the minors? I’m surprised you didn’t somehow mix up your and you’re in there.

Tony: Apologies if you’ve been asked this one before but do you think it’s possible that Oakland knew Addison Russell was a budding dirt bag? If I recall he was rocketing into the top 5 overall when traded. Would a team keep this type of info private?
Keith Law: I never heard a word of this until Russell’s ex first posted about it on IG.

Chris: Just curious, do you regularly get out of the blue replies to 2 year old tweets like Soundsing Mad Yadi Fan yesterday?
Keith Law: No. Some BFIB account retweeted that, and then a handful of people too slow to look at a timestamp started yelling at me.

Ben: Think Daniel Lynch starts in HighA? Or could be pushed to AA?
Keith Law: My guess is high A but not for very long.

CH: Wheeler will be Mets best SP this year. Tell me I’m wrong!
Keith Law: You’re wrong.

Todd: Silly question, all things equal, did the Yankees make the right choice in choosing from the Cubs Gleyer instead of Eloy?
Keith Law: Yes, not that there’s a huge gap.

MJ: Do you think Bryse Wilson pitches a significant amount of innings (say >100) at the major league level this year? Can he be at least league average?
Keith Law: I’m a huge fan but I think he’s probably behind too many other guys in their starter queue at the moment to predict that many starts (that’s probably 15+ starts in the majors).

Erik: I love Jake Bauers’ approach (ie all the walks) last year but his average cratered, especially in the second half. What are your thoughts on him and can he be at least a league average player given his defensive shortcomings?
Keith Law: I think that’s the most he can be, with the lack of power and negative defensive value.

Tribe Called Jest: Higher ceiling youngster, Lenny Torres or Ethan Hankins?
Keith Law: If Hankins’ stuff ever returns, it’s him.

Gritty: Ichiro earned a sendoff. What has Tebow done to deserve the attention he’s gotten thus far?
Keith Law: Threw a football, and not well.

Aubrey: Do you still believe in the Johan Santana development model of using a young starter in the bullpen first, then to the rotation? What makes a young guy like Forrest Whitley a good or bad candidate for that role?
Keith Law: I believe in it wholeheartedly. If I ran a team I’d try to break every starter in that way – in long relief, though, not as a one-inning reliever. It’s a planned development path, not a “stick him in the bullpen, let the manager use him however” deal.

Kevin : Is there a point where you are to tall to be an effective major leaguer?
Keith Law: A fair question. We’ve never had a 7′ big leaguer. Is that because it doesn’t work, or because they’re selected into basketball? There are certainly diminishing returns to height beyond at 6’6″.

Rick Sanchez : I wanted to just give Pete Buttigieg a quick pop. I feel like the only reason he’s behind candidates like Beto and Kamala in the polls is because he doesn’t grab media attention as well as they do, especially through social media. It kills me how much influence social media has these days! I encourage everyone to check out an interview of this guy- he’s super sharp and laser focused, with a great resume to back it all up. I’d recommend checking out his interviews from the Washington Post or Pod Save America. He also came on Chris Wallace’s show, which I wish more Dems would do!
Keith Law: Two thoughts. One, yeah, he’s been very, very impressive so far. He appears to be one of the most intelligent candidates, declared or rumored. And two, it doesn’t take much for a candidate like him to surge in the runup to the primaries – I’ve mentioned before how Clinton was seen as a longshot in 1991 and won the election, and pre-scandal Gary Hart went from extreme longshot to the close runner-up in 1984.

Danny: Is Spencer Jones the type of pitcher the Yankees typically target? (he seems like the only Oppenheimer special-SoCal pitcher- in the top 2 rounds)
Keith Law: No, and he hasn’t been very good in the early going.

Kevin : I know it’s never going to happen but would you be in favor of a relegation system for mlb?
Keith Law: No.

AGirlHasNoName: What’s the best use of twitter as a newbie? I mostly have been using it as a news filter, is that it? Otherwise reading the replies seems to lower my opinion of humanity.
Keith Law: That’s probably the best use. And/or follow people who tweet interesting links.

Discount Steve Urkel: Have you seen Luis Robert this spring?
Keith Law: Nope. Tried Monday, he wasn’t playing. Have had other priorities since. I can only chase a shadow for so long/

Kevin : What do you drink when you are on the road (besides coffee)?
Keith Law: Tea or water. That’s it.

Esteban: what’s the difference between an above average and a plus pitch? Let’s use a curve for instance, is it simply inches of break? Or is it a multitude of things like velo, control etc.? Can a slow breaking ball be as effective as a hard breaking ball?
Keith Law: Do hitters swing and miss at it? How often? That’s really all that matters in the end.

Mark: Do you think we will see more young players sign extensions as a reaction to the uncertainty in the CBA (ie they would be afraid that the union would continue to bargain in favor of veteran players at the expense of young players)?
Keith Law: These deals aren’t new. I don’t think this is a substantial change in philosophy for teams or players.

Sean: How many major league innings will Daniel Lynch pitch this year?
Keith Law: Zero.

Sean: Who breaks settles into a rotation spot first – Adonis Medina or Spencer Howard?
Keith Law: Breaks or settles? Howard is the clear starter prospect. Medina is probably more likely a reliever than a starter.

Joe: Do some associate scouts get paid? I read a news article recently that said that an associate scout had to sign a contract with a team. How many associate scouts do most teams have?
Keith Law: That role barely exists today.

Dan: What are your thoughts on Jeter Downs? Does he have star upside? He had a very impressive debut last year but I haven’t seen a ton about him.
Keith Law: Above-average upside, not star.

Kevin : Any chance the screwball will come back in vogue, or is it to hard on your arm?
Keith Law: There’s a very strong belief throughout baseball that it leads to arm problems. I find that somewhat amusing because so does every other fucking pitch guys throw.

JP: no question, just a kudos to the Blue Jays for being first at Making America’s Pastime Resemble A Living Wage.
Keith Law: Absolutely – they’re not getting quite enough credit, IMO, because it’s easy to say that they didn’t do enough. They did more than any other team has done, by a lot, so why not praise them for it and hope it provides other teams with an incentive to follow suit or further raise the ceiling for minor leaguers?

Greg S: Would Navy RHP Noah Song be a day 1 pick were teams not contending with a 2 year military commitment? Is he the best service academy prospect to pop up?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, and I don’t know the answer to the second question. Probably better for Jim Callis, who’s done this longer.

Rico Brogna : Any reason to think if Pivetta adds more consistency that he can eventually be the #2 starter behind Nola?
Keith Law: No. His issue isn’t consistency.

Shane: Thoughts on the Woodstock 50 line-up?
Keith Law: I could not care less about that.

Jeff: The Mets seem serious about breaking camp with both Smith and Alonso. That’s dumb, right?
Keith Law: I just don’t know how you play either of them enough to figure out what to do with them both. If they had the DH spot for Alonso, sure, but for now they don’t.

Rick C: Again here you brought up the flaw of adding catcher framing to WAR. I would be curious how you reconcile this with the incorporation of other advanced defensive metrics into WAR that have only existed since the early 2000’s.
Keith Law: Because we have reasonable proxies for defensive value for previous eras. That’s a bad analogy.

J: 80’s Aerosmith vs
80’s Motley Crue
Keith Law: Blech. Crue started to go downhill after Too Fast for Love. I don’t think Aerosmith did anything good after the ’70s, though.

Slippery Pete: The Luzardo news makes me sad. Should I cling to the silver lining that it makes it easier for Oakland to navigate his innings limit this year?
Keith Law: Depends on whether his rotator cuff is just sore or actually screwed up.

Mike: The Giants have kept Bart in major league camp a long time. Is there anything to read into that or does it mean anything?
Keith Law: No, teams need extra catchers anyway.

MattB: Whenever I read your work, I always wish there were more people out there like you. People who were broadly curious and interested in the world. Thanks for everything!
Keith Law: Well that’s a very kind comment, thank you. I have always been a curious person, even as a kid. I feel kind of lucky that it never faded.

CH: How would you handle Mets catching situation? Think I’d go Ramos and Mesoraco
Keith Law: Seems like a good plan to me.

Jake L.: If you were given 400+ MIL, what would your 1st purchase be? Would you like to be seen as “rich and irrelevant”?
Keith Law: Rich and irrelevant seems like a wonderful fate to me. Granted, Mr. Trout has to work for that money, but I’d be plotting my retirement in Italy.

Graig: Is Ryan O’Hearn anything? Good numbers last year, seems to have the starting job, but I assume (being a regular reader of yours) I would’ve heard more about him by now
Keith Law: I think he can repeat what he did last year, or something close. Makes hard contact. Poor defender.

Drew: I’ve been struggling with anxiety recently, and reading your Stigma Fighters piece helped me regain equilibrium after trying to go off my SSRIs. I wanted to thank you for your openness in discussing your own mental health, and to ask whether you’ve ever tried the Headspace app for meditation.
Keith Law: Only briefly although my therapist has recommended it. I don’t meditate nearly often enough.

Brodie Van Jump on the Bandwagon: Keith– are you surprised how well Pete Alonso has hit (i.e., more than just HRs) this spring? Also very impressed how Dom Smith has done (don’t know if you saw the piece that he is using a CPAP machine for better sleep, so that is having a + impact.) The Mets say they may carry both. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I am not surprised by how well/poorly any player has done in spring training because it means nothing.

Kevin : Do you think the anti-vax people that attack you on Twitter are actual real people or from a troll factory?
Keith Law: Both. Some are bots. Some are parents whose children are neuroatypical (e.g., autistic) and have been unable to accept that their children are different, thus sending them to find someone to blame. They’re all dangerous to the rest of us, though.

alex: Os are having Mountcastle work at 1B as well as 3B this spring. Given his (lack of arm), would you have tried LF (I heard he has been or 2B) for him? Thanks
Keith Law: He is way too big for 2b. LF should work.

Kevin : Was there any other colleges besides Harvard you were considering?
Keith Law: I applied to 12, which is more to say my parents decided I would apply to 12 (bear in mind I was 16 at the time, hardly capable of deciding what to wear to school on any given day). Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Virginia, William and Mary, Georgetown, Colgate, Washington University, Cornell, Duke, Wesleyan, Johns Hopkins.
Keith Law: I ended up choosing between Harvard and William & Mary, which offered me some kind of scholarship and also seemed to offer a much better student experience. I would almost certainly have enjoyed W&M more, but I’m well aware what the Harvard name has done for me (and the privilege it affords me).

Jake L.: Is the Snell 15K pay raise really a “bad look,” considering he was sent down twice to AAA in 2017 because he was insanely inconsistent and inefficient and then it finally all clicked on for him in 2018?
Keith Law: No, it’s the damn system.

Danny: What charities do you give to?
Keith Law: My #1 charity has been the Food Bank of Delaware for the past several years. It’s direct help to people who need it. I just gave $500 to them last week out of my first advance payment for book number two, because they’re great and they’ve been building a new warehouse/facility. fbd.org.

Hunter Greene: Huge year for me this year. What level should I be pitching in by the end of the year?
Keith Law: Double-A would be great, but healthy is the most important thing.

Dan: What are your expectations on Joe Ross as he makes his full-season return from injury? On a similar note, any concern for Lance McCullers and his ability to keep that curve ball next year?
Keith Law: Considered Ross for the breakouts piece but couldn’t find a real reason for optimism beyond “I’ve always liked that guy.” And his stuff wasn’t as good last year when he did pitch. Concern on McCullers was/is ability to stay healthy with that arm action.

Mark: Have you ever eaten at any of Thomas Keller’s restaurants?
Keith Law: Only Bouchon Bakery which was great.

Jim: I can probably predict it, but any thoughts about the KY governor (guess which party) who took his (nine) kids to a “pox party”?
Keith Law: If you tolerate this, then your children will be next.

Todd: Still relatively high on Domingo Avevedo? It should be time for him to make it to the majors
Keith Law: Have I ever been high on him?

Frank: As a former resident of Arizona do you have anything to add to the general commentary that being president and attacking a deceased war veteran who served his country his entire life is about as classless and petty as someone can be?
Keith Law: Yes. Let him rant and attack. I had this thought the other day: If Warren ends up the Democratic candidate, and Trump spends months calling her “Pocahantas” and other slurs and just generally being awful, will it end up helping Warren by reminding anyone actually on the fence of the kind of person the President is?

Guest: Kirilloff seemed like a great pick in 17 when the Twins were able to get him with a mid round pick. Was the reason he was available that far into the round because he doesn’t play a premium position?
Keith Law: Yes, also a cold-weather kid, and not a premium tools/athlete. Always trepidation over bat-first HS position players.

Kyle KS: If you’re the Cardinals and your 4th starter is Wainwright and the battle for 5th starter is Gant, Gomber, Hudson, etc. you sign Keuchel right? Seems like if you’re going for it then you improve that back end rotation right?
Keith Law: (nods)

alex: Are you expecting any former top prospects to be DFA-ed as we get to opening day (because they are out of options)? If so, who is a great change of scenery candidate? thanks
Keith Law: Isn’t Swihart out of options? Not a DFA candidate but maybe a trade guy.

JP: why not start with a 2 batter minimum, instead of going straight to 3?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to this.

dave m: Seeing as Fully Present is your go to book for anxiety I assume you practice mindfulness. Did you have trouble at first applying the practice to your daily life? I’m struggling to figure it out. Thanks
Keith Law: I would say it took me a few years to get to the point where I could apply it in difficult situations – learning to stay present and not let the anxiety of a moment overwhelm me.

Johny: So Harvard was your safety school?
Keith Law: No that’s Yale.

Jake L.: In a conversation about Brandon Lowe, you said that stats like wRC+ really should not be used to evaluate prospects, what stats should be considered?
Keith Law: The problem with wRC+ is it rewards production in terms of present value, which is not quite what we want from prospects – we are considering future value, more than present. The first time I had a reader try to use a minor leaguer’s wRC+ to argue with me was for Chase Vallot, who posted a 138 wRC+ in just over a year in high-A … but with a 36% strikeout rate. I had seen Vallot a ton for Wilmington and knew he couldn’t hit decent pitching – but he beat up on bad pitching, of which there is enough in A-ball for a player to fatten up his stat line.

Jason: Jake Noll has had a fantastic Spring (.341/.426/.585) for the Nats. What are your views of him as a prospect?
Keith Law: Exactly what they were a month ago – not a prospect.

Brodie Van Jump on the Bandwagon: On your point about Trump and Warren, Trump is going to attack and belittle any candidate on the other side. He has literally jumped the shark and is a super-loose cannon. Whoever opposes him has to tactically use that to their advantage– bait him on occasion to show he’s off his rocker and then also show you can be compassionate, the adult in the room, and know your stuff (which he doesn’t.)
Keith Law: I agree, but I’m not sure every Dem candidate would know to do that, or be able to pull it off.

Kevin : Is it wrong for employers to have facial hair rules (like the Yankees)?
Keith Law: IMO, yes.

Austin: In a previous chat, you were skeptical of Garrett Hampson’s ability to hit in the majors because of his lack of power. Has anything you’ve seen in the Spring changed that at all?
Keith Law: No, because … wait for it … spring training stats are useless.

Jonathan: Mike Shawaryn a back of the rotation guy?
Keith Law: I think more likely a reliever but he has succeeded as a starter, with starter-level skills, so far.

Austin: Any thoughts on McMahon in Colorado?
Keith Law: I still like him but for whatever reason they don’t seem to want to commit to play him?

JP: ___% chance of a work stoppage after 2020
Keith Law: 31%.
Keith Law: I just made that number up but it’s not zero and it’s below 50%.

Austin: Any favorite among Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta?
Keith Law: Well one was in my breakouts column…

Kevin : In favor of shortening the season?
Keith Law: Strongly oppose.

Rick Sanchez : Lunatic goes on murderous rampage. Leadership bans assault rifles. Wait- we can do that??!
Keith Law: Amazing what can happen in a liberal democracy that isn’t overrun by corporate and PAC money.

scott: Do you think the NCAA will ever increase the number of baseball scholarships> and if so do you think we will see more of the top high school players choose college rather than the minors? Would that be good for baseball in general?
Keith Law: I’ve suggested this before, but MLB should fund more D1 scholarships, and in exchange demand better access for scouts at workouts, BP, and to players for predraft info gathering (interviews, psych tests, etc.), as well as mandatory pitch limits.

You Work is Appreciated: Just noticed recently no mention of Hjelle in your write up of SF system, though you had wrote about him predraft in decently positive terms. Just wanted to see if anything in particular kept him off your list for the giants.
Keith Law: He’s there. I just checked again after a brief moment of panic.

Dane: How do people who know/respect your insights enough that they follow you and/or come to your chats continue to ask you about how your opinion of a particular player has changed based on spring training stats? You give the same answer to that question EVERY SINGLE TIME you choose to answer it. Every single time.
Keith Law: Every year, too. It’s wishful thinking, really. I understand wanting your favorite team’s player to be better, but a couple of extra hard-hit balls in March don’t tell us anything.

CD: I know he is extremely young, but is Franco in the same class as a prospect as Acuna was?
Keith Law: Yes.

The Fonz: Has a player, manager, or GM ever admitted to you that he follows your chats?
Keith Law: All the time. Often because they like a joke or catch the song reference in the intro.

Ray: Why is everyone acting like someone getting Trump to act like a jerk will move the needle? He’s always been a jerk and his supporters love it. The only thing that will change 2020 is getting those who didn’t come out at all in 2016 to get out and vote.
Keith Law: Isn’t that a possible motivator, though?
Keith Law: I’d add to that getting people who voted third party in 2016 to vote blue. Every person who voted for Jill Crank’n Stein should be deeply ashamed.

JT: If I’m vaccinated and my children are vaccinated, are we safe from the spread of these diseases regardless of the essential oil crowd, or should I be more worried?
Keith Law: You should still be worried because the immune system, while a marvel of evolution, is still imperfect, and that you can still catch a vaccine preventable disease even if you’ve been vaccinated. Your odds of fighting it off are much, much higher, of course, but they are not zero, so pushing herd immunity – stopping the disease from spreading because enough people in a community have been vaccinated – is still extremely important.

Kevin : Is it a weird feeling being recognized in public?
Keith Law: It is, but readers who’ve recognized me have always been so nice that I have come to enjoy it. It’s also infrequent – it’s not like I’ve got people lined up outside this Cartel Coffee shop to take my picture or something. I’ve been recognized in some fun places, like in line at Disneyworld (twice!), by my server in a restaurant, by the manager in a different restaurant, on a rental car shuttle, etc.

Michael Conforto: Have you watched The Inventor? It must be my bubble but this story managed to fly right past me all these years.
Keith Law: Not yet, on my to watch list. I’m overwhelmed again – my daughter wants me to watch Doctor Who and I’ve watched all of one episode of the reboot (Christopher Ecceleston’s debut), plus a friend more or less ordered me to watch Catastrophe, and I want to watch The Inventor and another film on HBO this month, La Familia.

Brett: Will you get any reports on Southern Miss, any chance wallner will sneak into the teens?
Keith Law: Of the first round? I haven’t heard anything like that.

Hinkie: I know you liked Brandon McIlwaine as a HS player. Any chance he can get back to a top prospect now that he’s playing regularly at Cal. Is he a day two pick this June?
Keith Law: I’d buy day two. He’s hit OK so far but I don’t think cal has faced much good pitching.

Danny: Does it matter if you vote Jill Stein or third party in a safely blue state (NY or CA)?
Keith Law: She’s a raging anti-science crank. Anti-vax, anti-GMO, anti-glyphosate, etc. Hard no.

Tom C: It’s interesting remembering the various opinions that the Angels should trade Trout to build up the farm system, only now they have Trout forever and a budding farm system. Hooray for everything.
Keith Law: Yes, but they don’t have much pitching imminent. They will have to solve that problem next.

Brian: Ugh Corey Knebel heading to an elbow specialist with the Brewers very concerned. Do you think how the Brewers used their bullpen last year will have negative ramifications for this year? Jeffress is on the IL as well.
Keith Law: I’m not sure we know how to prevent relievers from getting hurt.

Kevin : Would you do away with the electoral college?
Keith Law: Of course.

Michael : What do you think of the Brewers adding all three of their young pitchers to the rotation? Good move, highly volatile?
Keith Law: I’m here for it. Teams can be a bit too risk-averse with prospects/rookies yet the Brewers have gone hard the other way, and I think it’s great.

Drew: I’m finally watching Brooklyn 99 and it is incredibly funny. Has Michael Schur become the GOAT in television productoin? his run of 4 shows is unbeatable IMO.
Keith Law: If only he understood the glory of hot fruit, he’d be the GOAT. Instead he’s just rich and irrelevant.
Keith Law: OK, I’ve got to get a few little things done before heading out to games this afternoon, so I’ll wrap this up here. Thank you all, as always, for reading and for all of your questions. I should be on schedule for a Thursday chat next week, after I’m home from AZ. Enjoy this last weekend of meaningless baseball!

I have a new draft blog post up, on Carter Stewart and Matt Allan, as well as a Grapefruit League scouting roundup, both for ESPN+ subscribers. My latest board game review for Paste covers Tiny Towns, a pattern-matching game with a clever twist that makes the game harder but faster.

Keith Law: You expose the film in me. Klawchat.

addoeh: Belated Pi Day greetings. What kind of hot fruit did you enjoy last night?
Keith Law: No hot fruit here, but we did have pizza.

SeanE: Legal issues aside, should the Pirates just put Kang at SS and live with the below average defense and (likely) above average offense?
Keith Law: Probably better to plug him in at 3b; don’t think he’d be even a 45 defender at short now given his age and injuries. (I wouldn’t roster him at all, though, because of his off-field issues.)

John: Hi Keith – big fan of your analysis. With it very unlikely Kimbrel is going to land a long term “Chapman-like” deal, would it behoove him to take a 1-year deal and hope the market improves next off season or take the longest term, most lucrative deal offered knowing that it might be his last big contract now heading north of 30 years old?
Keith Law: I’ve been sympathetic towards the players as a whole this offseason since I think it’s clear the owners are banking profits, but Kimbrel and his agent could not have misread the market any worse. He came off a down year by his own standards, was awful the last time we all saw him, and then asked for a contract that would have been the longest ever given to a reliever. Teams in that market spent their money elsewhere. If someone offers him two years now he should take it. Just maximize short-term earnings, knowing the long-term is always volatile for you as a pure reliever (with control questions now), and that the market’s future is very hard to predict.

Aaron C.: As someone who’s been in the industry, do you have any general insight as to how players *really* feel about these international games? Players always *say* they love it publicly, but I’ve always had a hard time believing these creatures of habit like their routines uprooted to play in Japan, England, etc.
Keith Law: I don’t think they like it from that standpoint – it’s exhausting to change time zones to that extent. But I do think they like the cultural aspect. Players are still people so I’m sure some love it because the latter is more important than the former. I happen to enjoy international travel – granted, I don’t have to roll off the plane on to the mound – so I view the physical toll as a cost I’m willing to bear to go experience another culture.

Jeff: So I’m at the Giants/A’s game in Scottsdale last week, and when Bumgarner was pitching, they had the radar gun off. It was on for all A’s, and for other Giants. Is this a team decision? a Bumgarner decision? A little bit of both. He didn’t look great, just wanted to see if this is common practice, since I have never seen it before.
Keith Law: Probably the team’s decision but I don’t know.

JR: Were you “on” the sailing team or crew team at Harvard?
Keith Law: I was not, although oddly enough, they invited me to try out as a coxswain simply because of my weight and size. (I had no interest.)

Rod: Do you see a 40-HR season for Acuña?
Keith Law: I do not.

Scott Upham: Does Kyle Tucker have anything to prove in AAA? Looks like he is ready for prime time to me.
Keith Law: I agree.

parlay: Austin Hays is having a strong spring for the Orioles- hitting to all fields again, and several XBH. Should we toss out 2018 because of the injuries and jump back on his 2017 hype train?
Keith Law: Don’t toss 2018 out entirely, but consider weighting it less than you would for most players. He was a back-end top 100 guy after 2017, and i think if you project average regular for him you’ll be in a good spot.

Jim: What are you thoughts on the rules changes MLB is tinkering with? If you’ve written that up, apologies in advance and shoot me a link 🙂
Keith Law: There were a lot, so maybe ask me about specific ones if you’re curious. The one that I liked the most was capping commercial breaks in between innings; now get rid of commercial breaks for pitching changes and we’re really cooking. I’m also glad we’re not seeing a pitch clock, and dismayed that MLB is pushing the 3-batter minimum rule through without the union’s consent.

Jscott022: Of the young pitchers who have a chance to crack the braves opening day rotation (Wright, Touki, Wilson, Fried) which two would you take to follow Newcomb, Gaussman, and Teheran?
Keith Law: I’d put Wilson, Touki, and Fried in the rotation and bounce Teheran.

JR: Which team surprises the most this year and is way better than preseason projections?
Keith Law: I’ll do a predictions column in two weeks.

Mark: What happens if teams wont let their pitchers throw from 2 feet back citing injury concerns? Obviously, the league can just say throw like its a normal distance, but I feel like this wasn’t thought out very well.
Keith Law: I think that rule change is 100% likely to cause injuries.
Keith Law: Like, just don’t. It’s a stupid idea. I’d rather they lower the mound if anything.

James: New pizza/pasta place called Fellow in old town Scottsdale area (Giants) might be worth checking out
Keith Law: Thank you, it’s on my to-do list because the menu was designed by Claudio Urcioli (Pa’ La, ex-Noble Eatery).

Josh: Standard small sample/spring training caveats aside, I’m in a mad scramble to buy back my Austin Hays stock. Super impressed with his bat speed and defensive range. What say you?
Keith Law: Defensive range? No.

Jack: Is Luzardo ready to be a major-leaguer right now?
Keith Law: In what role? To simply be on a major league staff, yes. To be a league-average starter, I’d say less than a 50% chance of that right this minute.

Scott Upham: As a Detroit Tigers fan, it seems like Christian Stewart and Daz Cameron will contribute in 2019 but do they have any budding superstar position players in their entire system?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Joel: Keith, I finally was able to watch the movie Detroit. It was unbelievably hard to watch, although I thought it was outstanding. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Never saw/not interested based on reviews.

Julian: Hunter Barco a top 20 pick with improved strength and arm angle?
Keith Law: Not impossible but I think unlikely.

John: Have you seen/heard of any improvement in Chris Paddacks curveball?
Keith Law: No. I don’t think it will ever improve in a significant way.

Dale: So AZ spring training is far far superior to FL spring training. Baseball, weather, food, girls, driving distance to all the parks. Wouldn’t you agree ?
Keith Law: Yes. I like how you slipped “girls” in there as if that’s a major criterion, by the way. But weather, food, proximity, access to non-baseball culture are all there.

Jim: Mostly i was concerned about the 3 batter min… seems like using an AX for a scalpel problem
Keith Law: I would agree. Why not a two-batter minimum?

Thomas: Would you have the same career right now if you had gone to Arizona State instead of Harvard?
Keith Law: It seems unlikely. There is no doubt that having the two schools I attended on my resume has helped me in my professional life and career. That’s why this scandal is a big deal, IMO.

Dale: So a guy on the Royals is starting opening day that I’ve never heard of. Their weak division might be the o my thing to save them from being all time bad.
Keith Law: I think it’s amazing that a rule 5 pick (you’re talking about Brad Keller, I assume) is their Opening Day starter in his second year. I don’t think he’s as good as his 2018 ERA implies, but that’s a solid find in the usually barren rule 5 draft.

Will: With the new 3-batter rule, will teams now consider grooming some would-be starter prospects into middle inning guys?
Keith Law: That’s already happening. More likely that potential LHR in the draft get hurt, unless they show a weapon for RHB.

Julian: When will your next draft projection be?
Keith Law: If you mean a ranking, like the one I just did, probably in mid-April. I won’t project the first round until May because I have always maintained that anything before that cannot be sufficiently sourced.

Steve: General scouting question for you — can seeing a player in one game dramatically change your opinion of them? Say you came in thinking someone had 40 power but then you see them in their first game of the season hit a dinger 425 feet. Does that happen often where what you thought you were going to see one thing and it’s a totally different player?
Keith Law: Sort of? But maybe not for power. Velocity comes to mind, or even just seeing a pitch I didn’t think a guy had before.
Keith Law: Or just seeing that someone’s body is really different.

Thomas: Hypothetically speaking, if you have an OF with three all-stars and then a young stud in waiting like Eloy, couldn’t you just keep him on the 40 man for years until the stars aren’t as good? Thinking the old FL outfield with Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna, there wouldn’t have been any room for an Eloy.
Keith Law: I think the player would have a grievance after some extended period in AAA where, presumably, he’s demolishing the league.

Jim: Do you see the Yankees grabbing another SP with the latest Severino news?
Keith Law: I would absolutely support them signing Gio.
Keith Law: Will they? I don’t know. But I think he fits.

Justin: Can Dakota Hudson eventually be a league average starter? Or do you think he is bullpen bound? Sounds like STL prefers him over Gant for the 5th starter role.
Keith Law: Pen guy for me. Limited history of staying healthy, very reliant on that cutter.

Dale: Did you see Jeters comments saying paraphrase: “many Fans come to the game and leave the stadium not even knowing or remembering who won”
Keith Law: I did. That’s probably true for me, but I don’t attend games as a fan.

PhillyJake: Cole Tucker arrival in the majors?
Keith Law: Could debut this year but I don’t see impact.

Gus: Hello KLaw, The one new rule that I don’t understand the most from either management or the union side is why limit rosters after September 1? Isn’t it the best interest of the clubs to give as many minor league players possible exposure to the MLB environment?
Keith Law: They haven’t been calling up many guys for years now. I would have liked a limit a bit higher, maybe 30-32, but nobody was calling up the entire 40-man roster like they did in the 1980s. Too much expense and particularly risk if the player came up and got hurt in September or in major-league camp the following March.

Scott C: Donaldson was a worthwhile move, but could you have imagined a worse offseason for the Braves? What are they doing?
Keith Law: Standing pat and betting on internal improvements. Not a terrible strategy, but I think there was some low-hanging fruit in free agency they could have chased.

Scott Upham: Tampa’s injury recovering Jose DeLeon was once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. What is the best outcome for him now?
Keith Law: He was a solid prospect, not one of the tops; I think there’s league-average starter potential, but it will depend on how his fastball plays. There was some concern it was a little light for him as a starter.

section 34: Which pitchers historically would have been hurt the most by the 3-batter rule? Jesse Orosco came to mind immediately but he could pitch to righties until the very end.
Keith Law: Tony Fossas.

Mac: How much does Vaughn have to hit to justify being picked ahead of Witt Jr or Abrams? Does he have to be the best hitting 1B in baseball for 5+ years?
Keith Law: There’s an implicit assumption there about Witt Jr/Abrams that I’m not sure we entirely agree on, but you omit the other benefit Vaughn might offer: proximity. He’s in the majors in 12-18 months. Maybe sooner if he’s really this good right now. (I’ll see him in a week.) A win today is worth more than a win in five years to contending clubs – and, I believe, in the trade market.

Pat D: I’m trying to eat better and lose weight. I need to broaden my horizons in terms of what I eat, and therefore need to learn to cook better. Are there any dishes you can recommend that are either way
Keith Law: Center your meals on the plants, not the proteins. I think the American diet has always started with the question of what meat we were cooking, and then what sides go with that (steak, therefore potatoes and something green). Instead, start with vegetable dishes and work ‘inward.’ Ottolenghi’s Simple and Hugh Acheson’s The Broad Fork are great vegetable (but not strictly vegetarian) cookbooks.

Mark: Have you heard anything on Corbin Carroll this year yet?
Keith Law: He was in my draft ranking two weeks ago.

Bob Pollard: Saw data in a couple of tweets yesterday that one-batter pitcher appearances are declining. If that’s the case, then why get rid of them?
Keith Law: Eyewash.

JD: I know he’s only 24, but after three identical years do we know what Nomar Mazara has? Or do you still think there’s more to come?
Keith Law: There is more potential there. The probability of him getting to it has declined, but it is still there. A few of my breakout candidates from 2018 didn’t break out but I would double down on them, including him and Giolito, for 2019.

Brendan: Hey Keith, have you read Field of Dreams? I just found out the film was based on a book and was curious if it’s worth picking up. Thanks!
Keith Law: I haven’t. I don’t read much baseball stuff – reading is a hobby and a sort of meditation for me, so I want something different.

Jim: Do you attend a regular boardgaming group? Any games that work well on the road for you? (solo or otherwise). I travel a bit for work and carry a few sometimes.
Keith Law: I co-host a family game night at my local library, and I’ve played with some readers in the area a few times, and joined Bill Baer (NBC Sports, and a total pinko commie)’s game group a couple of times too. (That’s the only time I’ve played 7 Wonders with 7 people. Still great, but so different from the 3-5 player experience.) I often bring One Night Ultimate Werewolf on trips because it’s portable and quick. Jaipur is a great, portable two-player game. The Mind is always in my scouting bag these days to.

steve: I would think that service time issues would be less important for a pitcher. Do teams reflect that when the consider young pitchers in big leagues
Keith Law: A reader mentioned this around Paddack yesterday and I disagreed with him, saying I didn’t think manipulating a pitcher’s service time (especially one with a TJ already on his dossier) was worth doing because nobody can reasonably project a pitcher’s performance and health seven years out. That is just being too clever by half. There is a reason not to promote a pitcher too soon, which is that he might get hurt, as Michael Kopech did, and cost you a year of service and salary. (I say that having argued for Kopech’s promotion last summer. It didn’t work out.)

Steve: Wander Franco or Willie Adames more likely to move to 3B eventually?
Keith Law: Adames for me.

Mac: I know you said you only scout the top of the draft but when you’re at an amateur game do you only bear down on the guy you’re there to see or do you watch other guys who may be later round picks?
Keith Law: If they’re notable. I mentioned a 2020 guy in my draft post this week because he played against Matt Allan.

JD: I’ve always suspected that Manfred’s pace-of-play push is motivated less by a belief that fans care, and more because shorter games are more profitable for business reasons (concentrating ad revenue opportunities, higher carriage fees because it doesn’t crowd out other programming, who knows). Is that an unfair suspicion? If not, what’s the mechanism that actually makes shorter games more profitable?
Keith Law: I have had this suspicion too – would shrinking ad inventory mean higher prices for the inventory that remains? Does viewership decline with game length beyond some threshold? I lack the data to evaluate those suspicions though.

TP: Any good reasons why Texas wouldn’t just let Willie Calhoun play everyday?
Keith Law: Where?

John: I know you’ve answered the question a 1000 times about working in MLB and your reasons re: family, flexibility etc. are obviously very important and reasonable.

Are there times when you’re evaluating prospects though and feel like this isn’t for real? That you’re scouting but not getting any action from your work product?
Keith Law: I may not quite follow the question, but the ‘action’ i get is from you guys. You read, and you pay to read. What more could I possibly ask for? There’s no gratification for a writer like knowing your work is read and valued.

Tommy Fresh: with all the new All Star festivities this year with the election and stuff – will MLB bring in Entertainment 720 to run the show
Keith Law: Pawnee to Cleveland isn’t too bad of a drive.

Ed: If Elvis Luciano pitches like hot garbage this year, is it still worth keeping him on the Jays roster for future potential? What is 1 spot on the 25-man roster worth to a non-playoff bound team?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s worth doing. Not only is it a dead roster spot, now he doesn’t develop, and he makes more money next year, and there’s the risk he blows out and gets all that salary and service time, and stays on your 40-man, and so on.

Del : Where do you see Dom Smith’s in May: Mets 1st Base, AAA, another team?
Keith Law: Mets 1b.

Rod: Sean Newcomb ever gonna get the walks under control?
Keith Law: I have asked the question of “how” for a while now and I don’t have or hear a good answer.

addoeh: From your last newsletter (insert link to sign-up here), you talked about teams quickly sending up very young players to advanced levels to trick other teams models. Are there teams that will exclusively pick HS seniors and JuCo freshman late in draft to fill-out rosters instead of college seniors to get more opportunities?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard any of that, probably because the HS seniors would ask for more money to sign.

Layne: Recently bought Patchwork after reading your review. Great game. Any 2-player games coming up later this year that you’re eagerly anticipating?
Keith Law: Not off the top of my head but I am always listening. I have Wingspan (1-4 players) here to review, and Solenia (I think also 1-4). I know Corinth, an Yspahan reimplementation as a roll-and-write game, is coming soon, and the original had a solid 2-player variant. But nothing strictly two-player that I’ve heard about just yet.

Scott Upham: Bo Bichette is showing off all his tools in spring training. Other than service time, is there any reason he shouldn’t be the Jays starting SS on Opening Day?
Keith Law: He’s not a good shortstop.

Tim: Any thoughts on Anderson Espinoza return from TJ?
Keith Law: No. Haven’t seen him. Minor league games start today for all 30 clubs, I believe.

JD: I’ve found Splendor to be a great portable game — the whole thing fits in a quart plastic bag, and can be taught in two minutes.
Keith Law: Yes, very good call. Also plays well with two. Carcassonne is also very portable.

Bob Pollard: Sorry, I don’t understand the eyewash comment. Are you saying the data is wrong or MLB is trying to fix a problem that doesn’t exist? Or neither?
Keith Law: Eyewash refers to a solution without a problem, or something you do for perceived value rather than actual value.

Paul Dolan: Do you believe me when I say my team is losing money every year and has lost a lot in the last few years?
Keith Law: I don’t, and even so, your franchise value is appreciating, but that’s not reflected on the income or cash flow statements that you don’t issue to the public.

Geoff: Do you know anything about Trejyn Fletcher who’s now gonna be draft eligible this year as opposed to 2020?
Keith Law: He’s not draft eligible this year, not yet at least. It is possible he will be. He’s a prospect with some questions about the hit tool and a strong commitment to vanderbilt.

Tom: Any thoughts on Ketel Marte playing CF?
Keith Law: If it’s him or Adam Jones, I’ll try Marte. Good athlete, but experience helps in CF.

Tom: Is there any chance that Mountcastle can play a decent 2B, since the issue seems to be his arm, or is he a 1B / COF only?
Keith Law: Cannot see that body and build in the middle of the field.

Confused: This week while visiting my in-laws, my father-in-law–who is a great dad to my wife and grandfather to my child–called Aladdin Jasmine’s “Towelhead” boyfriend. He was quickly reprimanded by his wife, but doesn’t change the fact it happened. How do I reconcile these two polar opposites? It’s extremely troubling, especially as my daughter gets older and Fox News is constantly on the TV…
Keith Law: Harder since it’s not your dad, but consider talking to him about watching his tongue in front of your child. I have had a somewhat similar issue and asked someone to refrain from saying certain things in front of my daughter. It was an uncomfortable conversation but it resolved the issue.

Mike: Amed Rosario look primed for a breakout?
Keith Law: I would like to say yes, but i think he’s still putting the ball on the ground too much.

Lyle: Mariners starting catcher in 2022: 1) Omar Narvaez, 2) Cal Raleigh, 3) Not in system.
Keith Law: Mostly likely 3 but Raleigh is good.

ffballmaster: Have you ever “discovered” a guy? Like went to look at one player scouts told you to look out for and then found another you put on the scouts’ radar?
Keith Law: No, because I don’t go see amateur players unless scouts have already directed me there.

Beetlejuice: Is the service time issue only relevant to players players with a clear path to Major League ABs? Seems easy to imagine a scenario where a player is blocked by an incumbent, held down in AAA so he can get regular ABs, but it’s still unfair to the player from a $$ standpoint because he’s ready to contribute at the major league level. A fix for this problem should be factored into next CBA too, no?
Keith Law: Not sure how you’d fix that, unfortunately. A player who’s blocked by a legitimate major league option is temporarily out of luck.

Ethan: Did you read the story I sent you on Twitter this morning regarding the shootings? I appreciated the like, but just wondering if you actually read it.
Keith Law: Of course, I don’t hit Like if I don’t read and like the story attached.

Mike: Is Logan Davidson a top 10 pick?
Keith Law: Today, absolutely not.

Nick: You see Austin Hays 440 foot shot to dead center?! Think he starts the year in Baltimore?
Keith Law: Gabe Gross led spring training with 8 homers one year.

Bruce: In all fairness, you can’t pay players in Franchise Value, much like you can’t pay athletes in tuition credits.
Keith Law: No, but you can borrow against it, or sell equity, if you’re actually that strapped for cash.

finny: What are the chances at this point that Dane Dunning actually doesn’t have to have TJ surgery? He was hurt last fall, he’s hurt again, and he’s visiting Dr. James Andrews. Isn’t TJ just an inevitability?
Keith Law: I’d like to be wrong but it feels like it.

MJ: Do you think Bryse Wilson can make the opening day rotation, and if so what kind of season do you project for him?
Keith Law: Too many guys ahead of him but I think he could do it. Slider looked better when I saw him Tuesday and he fills the zone.

Brandon J: Aside from taking three years off his age, what does Tony Gonsolin need to do this year to reach or surpass the lofty standing of his fellow Dodgers’ prospect Dustin May
Keith Law: He’s not catching May for potential. He’s plenty good on his own, though. Three legitimately above-average pitches. Good athlete. Heck of a pick by the Dodgers.

Andie: Is tanking for higher draft picks as big of a concern in MLB as it is in the NBA? Are there discussions / conversations about how to minimize / eradicate it?
Keith Law: Less of a concern specifically – as in, teams do not tank specifically for higher draft (and international) position. It’s more like a fringe benefit to deciding you’re not going to spend money to chase after your 71st win. Part of that philosophy was to play your own prospects or hunt for value on waivers/minor league free agents, but not every non-competitive team is doing that second part, and then you get tanking.
Keith Law: Also, I’m good with changing the top of the draft to eliminate any incentive to lose more games. The only reason the team with the worst record picks first is because we’ve always done it that way.

Jordan: Starting to go through your top 100 novels list, will there be an update sometime? Thanks!
Keith Law: I would really like to – it’s on the list of things I’d like to do on the dish. I did get the Philly restaurants list posted, so that was an accomplishment.

Hank: Jesse Winker. Can he add some power to his elite on-base skills?
Keith Law: I think that park helps him more than it will most players.

Nick: Any idea who has registered the highest exit velocity since it’s been tracked?
Keith Law: Judge, right?

KC: What can a healthy Jorge Soler still be for the Royals?
Keith Law: Above-average regular in RF.

Mick: Are you surprised how well Tulo is playing short? Looks like he’s locked in to start there with the Yanks.
Keith Law: It’s spring training. Nothing surprises me, and almost none of it matters.

Ryan V.: Have you had a chance to play Root’s Riverfolk expansion yet? I just saw that Leder Games has a second expansion in the works, but have not yet managed to try out Riverfolk, and am curious to know how the expansions affect the game’s experience…
Keith Law: I haven’t – I rarely play expansions since I’m always trying new games.

Kevin : Weird question…my mom (who is 69) and I are aligned politically (both despise republicans). However, she is very religious…me not so much. The other day her church had a speaker in about evolution vs creationism etc. This guy was going through the earth is only 18,000 years old routine. Mom and I had an argument about it (I even gave her bill nyes book)…how would you handle this?
Keith Law: Nice. I might try sources who try to reconcile or at least don’t try to divide science and faith – really, I think most religious people accept that the earth is 4 billion years old. Young Earth Creationists are dumb, but they’re also a minority.

Kevin : Are you going to arod/jlo wedding?
Keith Law: I assume my invitation is in the mail.

Mike: If you were a GM, would you want your player impeding in the HR derby’s? A lot of money for the player if they win, but seems to mess up swings.
Keith Law: It doesn’t mess up swings – that’s a myth. Let the kids play.

Tom C: Brendan: the book for Field of Dreams is called “Shoeless Joe”. It’s a worthwhile read, but it’s also pretty different than the movie.
Keith Law: Thanks.

Michael Conforto: The Mets should absolutely upgrade from Vargas to Keuchel right?
Keith Law: Yes but they won’t.

Ryan: Do you have any ideas what players the Dbacks are targeting in the draft? If its too early for that, what do you think their strategy should be? Thank you!
Keith Law: Too early. Take the best players available, which may entail moving a little money around to grab some first-rounders who fall, since the Dbacks have several extra picks.

DF: Re. the Reds. If they are out of it in July, do you see a chance to recoup similar value to what they gave up with Puig, Wood, etc.?
Keith Law: Zero chance.

mike sixel: Could use a top 100 movies list……
Keith Law: Someone asked that in the comments recently … I feel like I have too many gaps in my own movie-watching history that I couldn’t do a credible list.

Uli Jon: Started “Lincoln in the Bardo”. I like experimental but almost gave up on it. Now I’m all in and I think it might be genius. Thanks for the recommendation.
Keith Law: Similar reaction – at the start I thought it might be a gimmick, but it’s brilliant.

Ron: Hi Keith-did you check out, Kiriloff, Lewis or Javier at all? Any chance to?
Keith Law: I linked to my ST notes above. I did not go to the west side of Florida at all.

Scott: Have you seen/read Girl on a Train and if so what were your impressions?
Keith Law: No. Not sure I’ve heard of that.

Andy: Who does taking away the August waiver trading period help? Like, who was pushing for that? I would think that some players, especially those nearing the end of contracts, would WANT to go to playoff teams. GMs want to turn their Gios into an A ball reliever with a small chance. Owners want to save small amounts of money if their season isn’t going well. Why was that one of the changes that one side wanted?
Keith Law: I’m not sure but I wondered if players disliked the disruption to their own lives of late-season trades.

Jake Lawson: So…Wil Myers in center and Mike Moustakas at second. Are either of them likely to be even passable at these positions?
Keith Law: Moustakas probably not. Myers hell no.

Todd: In all seriousness, how much is Fox News to blame for our current mess?
Keith Law: A lot. More than people wish to acknowledge. Maybe it’s time to ask establishments you frequent that have televisions going all the time to turn it off.

Rick Sanchez: When do you think Hiura hits the majors?
Keith Law: July.

Adam: Love the chats Keith, thanks for taking the time to do them. With Sano’s latest injury, it’s hard for this Twins fan to see any reason that he’ll be successful consistently long term. Do you think he’ll ever put it together?
Keith Law: For stretches, at least. Lot of hitting ability and raw power, with an idea at the plate.

Imre: Just wanted to pop in and proudly say we got out 4 year old daughter her latest round of vaccinations yesterday!
Keith Law: Excellent news. Most of us are sane. If we convince another tiny sliver of the population to join us in vaccinating our kids, many or most of these outbreaks will stop.

Kevin : I asked my employer to stop playing Michael Jackson on the intercom…small step but hopefully more follow suit.
Keith Law: I’m actually surprised that more outlets haven’t just quietly shelved his music.

SeanE: Would you say the same about CNN? They clearly have bias the other way. Not sure there is objective media anymore….at least in national politics.
Keith Law: AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH oh that is fucking hilarious.

Todd: The democratic nominee in 2020 is…….?
Keith Law: Dunno but I’m voting for them.

Tom: How would you resolve service time manipulation?
Keith Law: You can’t, right? You can make it harder, and you can make it less lucrative/valuable, but you can never truly stop it.
Keith Law: Paying minor leaguers more would help. I’ve seen proposals for tying free agency to total time in pro ball, minors + majors, and for tying it to age. Each proposal has benefits over the status quo and will also disadvantage certain players.

Geoff: Gritty 2020?
Keith Law: Oh hell yes.

Johnny Lecherous: Happy Friday, KLaw. Last week someone asked if 2007 #5 overall draft pick Matt Wieters was a bust. Checking the 50 top 5 picks in the decade from 1997-2006, the average career total was 15-16 WAR — compared to just under 20 for Wieters. (That’s Baseball-Reference WAR, for what it’s worth.) So that very cursory study would claim that Wieters was more or less a typical outcome. Sadly.
Keith Law: But he wasn’t a typical #5 pick. He was #1 or #2 in the draft – I had him at 1, I think BA had him at 2 (They were right) – on most boards. I certainly never heard anyone tell me at the time that he was flawed. He slipped to 5 because teams 2-4 didn’t want to meet his bonus demands.

SeanE: So CNN is right down the middle. You have been spending too much time on the beach in Arizona….oh wait….
Keith Law: Strawman, and I haven’t lived in Arizona since 2013. Take the L, Seane.

Kevin : Is trump worse than you thought he would be…I had extremely low expectations in November of 2016 but somehow he has been even worse.
Keith Law: He’s what I feared. The federal government is slashing science budgets and programs left and right and no one even notices because we’re too busy reacting to him lighting something else on fire.

Ridley Kemp: Speaking of musicians who are best left forgotten: Michael Jackson and R. Kelly are being removed from playlists, but Ted Nugent the Rolling Stones, and The Mamas and The Papas get a pass. Any idea why there would be a different standard?
Keith Law: Timing? Those revelations (and crimes) were longer ago.

Thomas: David Bowie had a teenage relationship, e.g. statutory rape. Should he not be played either?
Keith Law: I can’t tell you where to draw that line for yourself. You should at least ask yourself the question on Bowie and his contemporaries who engaged in similar behavior. I don’t love relativistic approaches to judging such crimes, but I could not agree that Bowie is in the Kelly/Jackson category.

Kevin : who even likes Ted Nugent?
Keith Law: I have never actually met a Ted Nugent fan. I used to really like that style of faux-metal, too, but never liked any of his songs.

Corey: Draft idea, versions of which i’ve seen elsewhere: 1st five picks are the 1st five non-playoff teams, then the rest in the normal order. Incentivizes teams to win
Keith Law: Yep, that’s one I’ve heard and like. Or a lottery. Or take the top N picks and make them a sort of controlled free agency – teams in that range can submit bids on players, who then go to the highest bidders in that group, and then from picks N+1 forward it’s a draft again.

Andy: Add Led Zeppelin to the list of bands who were lucky their scandals happened before the current time frame.
Keith Law: There are some ugly stories with them, if I remember correctly. Motley Crue too, surprising exactly nobody.

Tim: Should any person (even low income blue collar workers) who are guilty of domestic violence be fired and never hired again or does that just apply to MLB players?
Keith Law: MLB players are public figures hired to represent a franchise and perform for (and often spend time with) children in particular. If you can’t see that difference, I can’t help you.

Blake: You (correctly) said Harper would sign with whoever paid him the most. Do you think any players go for fit/location over money? I remember Dawson supposedly told the Cubs he’d play for whatever number they wanted.
Keith Law: Dawson said that to challenge collusion. Some players near the end of their careers will do that – Kerry Wood comes to mind. But peak free agents do not.

JD: Speaking of slashing science budgets, have you read Michael Lewis’s “The Fifth Risk”? Short, demoralizing read about our current government that doubles as a paean to devoted civil servants and the unheralded jobs government takes on.
Keith Law: I won’t for that reason. I’m sure it’s excellent.

Chris: At this point Gio probably couldnt even start a game til mid April at the absolute earliest, so is the idea for the Yanks’ going after him as insurance for Severino being out longer than the first month? Otherwise they could be fine w a month of Cessa/German, no?
Keith Law: He’s depth for the whole year, though. Someone else will get hurt or need some time off. I doubt CC makes 30 starts, for example.

Tom: How did you figure out your red meat allergy/sensitivity? I am going through some issues myself and am wondering if you know about a test that I don’t. A full elimination diet is pretty difficult with a FT job and 2 kids under 3. Hoping for an easier path…
Keith Law: We knew we had the inborn error of metabolism from when my daughter was born and then they tested me and found I had it too. (It’s autosomal recessive, so she got one defective gene from me and one from mom, but I also have two defective genes, and the one I gave my daughter was apparently unique. We were very popular around the hospital for a few days.) My daughter pieced together the “eat beef = feel like crap” connection, although to be honest I was just in denial.

mike sixel: I am all for a controlled FA type “draft”. The teams that don’t make the playoffs get $X to sign 1-3 players, say, for a week or two. Then there is the regular draft, or a new FA where the amount you can spend on one player is capped. Players can choose if team or money is more important. Teams can choose to put more eggs in 1-2 baskets, or spread their risk.
Keith Law: Right? And then the top draft kids might get something closer to market value.
Keith Law: There are really only 2-5 such players in any draft class anyway. They get screwed.

Kevin : People always bring up cutting regulations as why they like trump, but is that a good thing? I mean at some point I like clean water/air plus we cannot have companies like Boeing self regulate.
Keith Law: Right – people who say they want fewer regulations probably don’t mean they want zero safety checks on our food supply (which was never something the USDA etc did well anyway).

adambulldog: Do arb-eligible players receive MLB compensation if they are optioned to the minors?
Keith Law: Depends on their contracts. If they went to arbitration they will get their major-league salary. You can be arb-eligible but accept a split deal if, say, you were non-tendered.

Blake: Any advice on getting someone (teen) to participate in therapy when they really don’t want to? We’ve been through 7-8 therapists so far, tried meds, nothing works.
Keith Law: I wish I had a good answer other than try to find a therapist your teen likes on a personal level, so that therapy becomes like a conversation.

Mike: How fucked up do you have to be to come to a baseball writer’s chat and try to write a gotcha question defending men who engage in violence against women?
Keith Law: Every week.

Henry: Are owners required to report revenue reports to MLB every year? If so, can’t the Union sue as part of the freedom of information act to determine if there is free agency collusion, or an effort to maximize owner profit?
Keith Law: FOIA covers information from government agencies. Doesn’t apply here. The union could demand such information in the CBA but the owners wouldn’t agree to it.

Rick Sanchez: Do you think Wander Franco makes a Soto-like splash in the majors next year as a teenager?
Keith Law: 2020, maybe, but not this year.

Kevin : On average how many questions do you get in these chats?
Keith Law: It’s many hundreds. I don’t have a quick way to count but there are over 330 of you with this chat open right now even though we’re 72 minutes in.
Keith Law: That’s all for me – I have some errands to run and then a weekend at home before I head to Arizona. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions! Look for more scouting posts next week as well as my annual breakouts column.

Keith Law: Today it’s just a place where we meet. Klawchat.

The Fonz: Kimbrel ends up in Atlanta?
Keith Law: I tweeted over the weekend that I heard he was farther down the road towards a deal with Washington. That’s the last info I have (and I haven’t sought more … that just came to me). BTW, let’s chill with the Kimbrel as future-Hall-of-Famer talk. His agent misread the market, and now the player is paying the price for that. Overstating the player’s ability or career doesn’t help.

addoeh: What anti-vaxxers don’t realize is that snake oil sales is a very lucrative business. “Dr’s” Sears and Mercola, Alex Jones, the guy who owns N*****l N**s, and the rest have made a ton of money peddling essential oils, elephant extract elixirs, and other crap they sell.
Keith Law: Yep. It’s a weird, unholy alliance between these mountebanks, parents who need someone to blame for their children’s neuroatypicality, and religious cult members. They can all believe what they want, but if you want to send your kids to school, you need to get them vaccinated.

PhillyJake: Neil Huntington has made the contention that, had he signed a high price free agent, the salary differential could cause a jealousy in the clubhouse, with one player being paid a huge percentage of overall salary. Any thoughts on this type of thinking?
Keith Law: I understand his point, but don’t quite agree. One, if the team wins, every player stands a chance to make more money. Two, the other solution to that is to … sign two players at high prices?

CH: If the Mets have a rough start, an absolute fire sale of their pitching would make sense, right? Get as many good young players for Thor and deGrom as possible?
Keith Law: Yes, especially with that very, very tough division, but I don’t foresee them doing so.

Sam: I’ve been reading the Ringer’s series on the Reds’ scouting reports, and it got me thinking about how scouting has changed over the years. What do you think are the biggest changes you’ve seen in your scouting process or the league’s process as a whole?
Keith Law: Many things – I spoke to Ben about some that may appear in part 3 (that’s not up yet, I think). Scouting reports themselves have changed. Scouts are expected to be more literate in analytical basics, to be better able to provide information R&D can use, to look more at things that we think matter and less at things that we don’t. BTW, one subject I have not seen anywhere was whether the leaking of those reports violated trade secret laws or anything the leaker signed.

JaKob : Hey Keith, how do you see the Brewers 5th spot shaking out between Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta?
Keith Law: I would be very surprised if Woodruff and Burnes don’t both get 20+ starts this year.

JP: Keith – Thanks for the chats and the insider system reviews were great, by the way. I know spring training stats mean diddly, but have you had any looks at anyone or heard reports of anything that jumps out at you?
Keith Law: I haven’t headed to spring training yet – I’ll go Saturday for the first trip. I tend to ignore info from the first week or two, since the stats mean nothing and people react more to how players look (like, best shape of his life stuff) than how they play.

Ron: Hi Keith-Thanks for all your work on prospects and all your baseball write-ups. You and Buster are the only reason I subscribe to Insider. Would it make sense for Minnesota to offer a 1 or 2 year deal to Keuchel if he would take it, or just let that horse leave the barn?
Keith Law: Yes, unless there’s something so drastic in his medicals that they’re uncomfortable even at two years.
Keith Law: The Twins are good. They’re certainly at a point where investing further in the 2019 team is likely to have a positive ROI.

Dean G.: Klaw! My man! Whats good fam? Do you think Chris Paddack makes the Padres rotation early in the year?
Keith Law: Yes.

JaKob : Does Duplantier make the rotation this year for the Dbacks? It appears some injuries would have to happen for that to occur.. What about someone like Jose Suarez for the Angels? Do either of those guys help the big league team if there is no starters role in 2019?
Keith Law: Both probably don’t see the rotation until the second half if at all.

Long Dong Silver: What are your thoughts on Carlos Martinez… this dude is so frustrating… seems like he has the pure talent to be great, but neither the mental durability or “want to” to become an upper echelon pitcher. Would appreciate your thoughts, thanks Keith!
Keith Law: Nice reference in your username. Amazing how a man facing credible accusations of sexual harassment has been allowed to shape US judicial policy for almost 30 years now. I don’t think Martinez lacks “mental durability” or “want to.” He’s a smaller guy who throws hard and gets hurt.

Rodney: No question today, just want to say I’ve enjoyed following you on instagram! I think it’s a good format for you!
Keith Law: thanks! trying different things there since IG is poorly suited to baseball content.

The Dude: My film turned 21 yesterday. Ever seen it?
Keith Law: Did you just ask if I’ve seen The Big Lebowski? Obviously you’re not a golfer.

Moe Mentum: Whose presumed Phillies roster spot did the Bryce Harper signing most likely affect – Altherr, Quinn, or Williams?
Keith Law: Has to be Williams, who went from probable starter to bench guy/trade bait.

Jarrod: Hello Mr. Law, is Ryan Pressly one of the more under rated RPs in the game?
Keith Law: Don’t know how to answer that. Underrated how/by whom? He’s good, a good example of how very progressive teams like Houston target players they think they can improve through R&D-based coaching, but they also gave up two decent prospects to get him.

Nick: What have you heard about Eastlake’s Keoni Cavaco?
Keith Law: Nothing. I only cover top draft prospects at that level.

Bighen: Not that it’s some huge battle but should Mets actually be rooting for Dom Smith to come away with 1B job this spring? Better D, maybe better overall approach at the plate, obviously less power
Keith Law: Yes and also there’s risk he loses any trade value if he has to go back to AAA, whereas Alonso could return to AAA for a couple of months without anyone really batting an eye (pun intended).

Dana: Any book recommendations off the top of your head for somebody who likes Tolstoy, Proust, Stendhal, Dostoyevsky, Balzac and Hugo?
Keith Law: My go-to rec for literary fiction is always Bulgakov’s The Master and Margarita. Bleak House, Middlemarch, The Return of the Native, The Good Soldier all come to mind. But also branch out into some stuff from outside the western canon – how about Ngugi wa’Thiongo’s Wizard of the Crow, GGM’s One Hundred Years of Solitude, Rushdie’s Midnight’s Children (not a favorite of mine, but still a book of great literary merit), or Saramago’s Blindness?

JR: Do you ever go into reading “slumps”? I used to read pretty consistently and have fallen out of the habit of doing so. If you do, how do you work through it?
Keith Law: I do, and I try to read something I know I’ll love – a Nero Wolfe novel, or an Agatha Christie book, or something similarly light and fun.

Mark: Keith, will you be in AZ the weekend of the 15th-16th?
Keith Law: Nope, I’ll be home between trips.

Moe Mentum: Please rank by likelihood of eventual Cooperstown enshrinement: Beltre, Cano, Donaldson, Pedroia, Tulowitzki, Utley
Keith Law: Beltre is a no-doubter. Cano will probably get there. Utley will be on the bubble. The others are not.

Ryan: 13 years seems like a long time for a player that has only played more than 150 games twice. He is always hurt and is a horrible defender. I would imagine by year 5 of this contract the Phillies will be dreading this decision. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Not always hurt, and not a horrible defender until last year, which Mike Petriello showed was probably not predictive.

Daniel L: Is it service time manipulation to keep Tatis Jr down in AAA?
Keith Law: No. He has less than a full season of games above low-A.

JR: Dustin Peterson hitting very well in tigers camp. chances he makes breaks camp with the big club?
Keith Law: Great guy for them to give a shot.

Jake: I love your baseball analysis, but on a different note, can you tell me why you liked Roma so much? I thought it was unique, but really slow and just ok, certainly not best picture worthy.
Keith Law: Great story, amazing cinematography and sound. The only other BP nominee that was close in my opinion was The Favourite. Of course, White Savior won. I wonder if some voters skipped Roma because it’s not in English.

Daniel L: Paddack’s curve seems better so far this spring no?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: Wishful thinking.

eric: Keith,

Just how far under the radar is Dylan Carlson? Big bodied kid, switch hitter and will be one of the youngest players in his league this year.

I’m guessing he will see a jump in power leaving the FSL.

Is it far fetched to see him ascend into the top 100 by midseason?
Keith Law: He’s not under the radar at all.

Cole: Do you trust David Fletcher as the everyday 2B for the Angels, or should they have tried to find someone in free agency?
Keith Law: No, utility guy.

Yu: Do you think Yu gets back to being Yu or is he 2018 Yu? What says you?
Keith Law: Think he’ll get back to his usual self now that he’s healthy.

Roger: Which wild pitcher has the best chance of having a career as a starter between Luis Medina, Jorge Guzman and Alec Hansen?
Keith Law: Medina. Most likely none of them, but Medina is at least healthy and his delivery works.

Roger: It seems that you are the high man on Oscar Mercado. Does he take one of the starting OF spots out of camp?
Keith Law: It wouldn’t be a bad move for them, but I don’t try to handicap who’ll win Opening Day jobs.

Dan: Have you listed to The Black Keys new single?
Keith Law: No, not really a big fan. All their stuff sounds the same to me.

Roger: What do you think attributed to Alex Faedo’s velo dip last year? Is it something that could return to normal this year?
Keith Law: He never really threw that hard in college. It was a bad first-round pick.

Billy: The importance of vaccinations clearly shouldn’t even be an debate. So should we be concerned about the immunization records of illegal aliens? How do we ensure they are (or become) properly immunized?
Keith Law: By making it much, much easier for people to immigrate here legally. They’re coming whether we like it or not, so let’s formalize the process, so that everyone entering the country can, say, show proof of immunization (or just get immunized on the spot), or allow us to conduct background checks for any history of violent crimes.

Zac: You are firmly against giving Luke Heimlich any publicity, but Jeff Passan recently reported accounts think he could be an MLB pitcher, have you guys talked about not giving him any publicity?
Keith Law: Jeff works with me, not for me.

Alex Anthopoulos: I was wise to stand pat with trades because not enough teams are willing to trade now, but likely will by mid season. Fair?
Keith Law: Eh. I don’t think i agree with the premise. That said, Atlanta didn’t have any obvious weak spots either.

Mike: In your Cubs writeup you wrote that Brennan Davis needs to improve his pitch recognition but a 14% BB rate as a raw 2 sport guy shows some polish
Keith Law: Walk rate – especially in complex ball – is not any indicator of pitch recognition.

Mac: I get Bobby Witt’s age somewhat matters now but projecting him out will it matter when he’s 23? 25? 30? Seems to be a lot of overthinking at the top of the draft.
Keith Law: It affects his long-term projection. You’re glossing over the empirical evidence we have that HS position player projections are affected by age on draft day. Also, there are real swing and miss concerns with him.

Beep: Andrew Vaughn. Defensively, any chance he could play the OF? 3B? If relegated to 1B, what kind of defensive potential does he have there?
Keith Law: 1B only. Anything else is wishful thinking.

Alan: Too early for draft intel? Anything on the White Sox at #3?
Keith Law: Way too early. Try me in about six weeks.

JC: Kimbrel would have a team by now if his agent wasn’t trying to convince teams his 2018 & 2016 didn’t exist & price accordingly
Keith Law: Agreed. Also, the last time we saw the guy pitch he couldn’t throw a strike, and his manager used a starter to close out the last game.

Dan: Serious, maybe ignorant question. As a white male who is raising two young boys, what can I do as a father to make sure my children grow up in a completely tolerant, non-privileged way?
Keith Law: You can’t. That’s an unattainable goal. You can raise them to be kind to others, and you can avoid raising them to think ill of those who are different, and as they get older you can point out to them that not all the kids had the same advantages they’ve had. But you can’t make perfect children; nobody can.

Osiris : Do you see DJ Peters playing any kind of significant role for the Dodgers in 2019?
Keith Law: No. I’m not sure he will ever play a significant role for them.

rufreshterp: Is it AT ALL POSSIBLE that you’ve confused Luis Garcia for Yasel Antuna, which would then help explain why you seem to have absolutely no regard for Luis Garcia?
Keith Law: Fuck off.
Keith Law: Really, if you came here to my site to insult me, then leave.

Mark: Do fans really care about the length of games?
Keith Law: I don’t think so; I think that they care about dead time during games – but perhaps that’s because *I* care about dead time during games.

Poke: Any chance Adley could slip to the White Sox at #3?
Keith Law: Any chance, sure. Would I bet on it? No. Seems like he is the safest bet for 1 right now, assuming he doesn’t get hurt (he is a catcher, after all). If the Orioles decided to take Vaughn for his otherworldly hitting performance, l would then guess Adley goes 2.

Jerry: Do you think there are still people who legitimately believe in lower taxes, less regulation, “freedom” of religion, etc? I used to give the benefit of the doubt to my conservative/Republican acquaintances. After living in NE Texas throughout the Obama and Trump years (I lived in Houston before) I am convinced that it was all a cover for people to legitimize their bigotry and racism. I can’t believe how naïve I was all of these years.
Keith Law: I do. There is a real, longstanding school within economics that argues, with some evidence, that lower taxes and less regulation lead to greater economic growth (probably) and thus to greater prosperity for all (that’s becoming less true, if it ever was). I also think that idea works better for countries trying to rapidly industrialize, like Estonia after independence, than a country like ours that is already developed and now trying to support a large and aging population.

Zihuatanejo: With Kershaw looking tenuous, should the Dodgers consider signing Keuchel? Any chance they do?
Keith Law: I was thinking Gio for them.

Zihuatanejo: I see anti-vax, climate change denial, flat-earthers, and similar nonsense as symptoms of a larger problem — the mindset of “I probably know more about this subject than the professionals who study it for a living.” When and how do you think this arose? Was it created by Internet culture, or did the Internet merely enable these people?
Keith Law: The Internet allowed those people to find other deniers and thus cement their views. Denialism goes back centuries. They’re just louder now.

JR: What was your thoughts on the Leaving Neverland doc?
Keith Law: I posted that here yesterday – it’s the post before this one.

Mark: I find that people tend to gravitate to the sort of pizza they grew up with. If i remember the pizza of your youth was Little Vincent’s which seems to be a far cry from the pizza you favor today. Was there a particular pizza that reshaped your taste buds ?
Keith Law: That was near where I grew up but not the specific pizzeria we frequented most often. I first had real Neapolitan pizza on my first trip to Europe during college and it was love at first bite.

Craig R.: Does the young man you tweeted about yesterday for the 2020 draft, Zac Veen have a chance to go 1st overall next year?
Keith Law: Way too soon for that. Impressive prospect, though. He’s at Spruce Creek – I believe I said Spring Creek in the tweet and that was a mistake.

I7LITE: The Rangers are years away from contention and just gave a bunch of guaranteed money to a closer with one good season. Shouldn’t they be dealing guys like Leclerc, Gallo, Mazara, and anyone else with more than a year of service time, rather than extending them?
Keith Law: That assumes the market will give them fair value for such players. Two corner bats, one of whom still hasn’t performed up to expectations, the other is Rob Deer reincarnated, and a reliever with one good year under his belt are not exactly highly valuable assets right now.

Joe: Do you think the Braves scouting approach will change much going from Bridges to Brown?
Keith Law: I do not. I do think Anthopoulos will have a hand in draft strategy, albeit not in specific picks.

Bob from Accounting: Your take on “tampering” as it was so overtly executed by Bryce the other day? Seems to be an outdated concept that exists solely for the sake of posterity, but I can see where the team holding the target of the tamper would get bent out of shape.
Keith Law: Didn’t see any issue with Harper saying he’d like to play with the best player in baseball who happens to be from the area where Harper plays now.

Don: I’m worried about Kyle Tucker. I expected him to rake in spring training but he’s been pretty mediocre. Are you still high on him?
Keith Law: He’s 5 for 19.

Doug: Enjoyed chatting with you and do highly recommend the Smithsonian Documentary on The Green Book. What is Griffin Canning’s ceiling for the Halos?
Keith Law: If you ignore the health questions he had out of UCLA, #2-3 starter.

Joe: Thoughts on the Hicks extension? Not a lot of money, but seems like Hicks is hurt quite a bit (including now).
Keith Law: Yes but even missing a little time a year he’s extremely valuable, and a full year of him is going to be worth much more than he’s paid.

WhiteSoxAndy: Do the White Sox still have a bright future after this epic failure of an offseason or am I doomed to watch crap for quite some time?
Keith Law: Was it a failure? I don’t see that. I’m sure you wish they’d landed one of the two big fish, but both players signed large, lucrative deals, and I wouldn’t want the White Sox to start trading prospects yet since the major league team isn’t contending yet and their system is still shallow.

Cartoons Plural : Allen Webster fulfilling the hype that he once had or SSS?
Keith Law: Can we make NSS a thing? No Sample Size?

Frank: I’m going to new orleans for the first time this summer, so you have any recommendations for good BBQ places? Thanks.
Keith Law: I don’t think I’ve ever had Q in New Orleans. I’ve had the local dish called barbecue shrimp, which isn’t smoked or even grilled, but is shrimp baked/braised in butter. (It’s good.) I haven’t been in years but usually when I’m there I eat gumbo and fried shellfish.

Ty: I need some hope as a Tigers fan… Do you view Mize as a future ace or more of a 2/3? Does he realistically get called up to Detroit this year?
Keith Law: Future ace.

Mike: Angels pitchers have openly criticized Scioscia’s hindrance of progressive pitch coaching. Should we expect measurable performance increases, or is this just excitement about a new boss?
Keith Law: No, I think they’ll be better overall. I criticize Ausmus when he errs – okay, he does that a lot – but my understanding is that the Angels hired him to implement this new information/style of development.
Keith Law: Also, he’s so handsome.

Jerry: Will there be a work stoppage in ’21? Do the players have any chance of prevailing? Why do “fans” take the owners side in these disputes?
Keith Law: My bet now is yes.

Aaron (Houston): Klaw, follow up to twitter question about duck recipe. I baught a whole duck and am looking for your recommendation on roasting a whole duck.
Keith Law: Yes, I remember that – I actually don’t cook it whole. I break it down into two legs and two breasts. You can braise the legs and then just sear the breasts; Ruhlman’s Twenty has recipes for both. I have a sous vide machine and use that for the breasts, then just finish with a quick sear, so they stay medium-rare.

MikeM: Thoughts on Severino’s rotator cuff tendonitis? Does it portend future issues or is this just a one time thing?
Keith Law: We don’t have enough information to say.

Adam: When in spring training is the lack of velocity a concern? Saw Kenley was down to 89 mph the other day. Fulmer was at 91. both said they will be good by the end of March..
Keith Law: If someone’s velocity is still off in the final week, I get concerned. If I see someone live and his effort is higher but the velocity is lower, that might be a concern too.

Nick: Fastest rising “pop up guy” you’ve seen in your scouting tenure?
Keith Law: Benintendi.

VG Jr: Am I a top 5 hitter when I step on the field after service time manipulation?
Keith Law: No, I’d take the under on that.

Nick: Best 2 prospects you’ve seen on one team (h.s or college)? Feel like Trevor Bauer and Gerrit Cole have to be up there
Keith Law: Tough to top that – 1st pick and 3rd. At one point, Harvard-Westlake HS had seniors Luc Giolito and Max Fried and sophomore 3b/rhp Jack Flaherty.

Thomas: Best shows you’ve watched on Netflix?
Keith Law: Haven’t watched many shows at all but Russian Doll was +++.

Todd: Gleyer and Andujar regress at all this season?
Keith Law: I’m not expecting that, especially not from Gleyber.

Nino from The Money Team: Giolito seems to sitting back up in the mid-90s but is still all over the place – are the Sox still undoing a lot of the damage the Nats inflicted upon him or is this what he is and will be?
Keith Law: MLB says he’s thrown 75% of his pitches for strikes this spring. Also, it’s March 7th.

Nick: What country could you see being the next hot bed for international talent that isn’t high on the radar now?
Keith Law: Brazil. South Africa. Uganda has had some very good little league teams the last few years; I heard from a scout who went there with MLB that there were players there who could go to junior college here, which is utterly astounding when you consider its baseball isolation and lack of history with the sport.
Keith Law: Of course India and China are easy guesses … with 1 billion people each there must be some kid there who can run 3.97 down the line or throw 95 mph, just without any baseball skills.

Danny: Not a judgment comment- actual earnest question from a Yankees fan- do you think Cano will get in with the PED suspension?
Keith Law: Yes, by that point so many of the older voters will have stopped voting, lost their badges, or passed away that PED suspensions will be seen as a minor ding but not a disqualification.

Mike: what is the defensive outlook for Tyler O’Neill, looking like he will get serious playing time this year
Keith Law: Below average defender.

Pat D: Hi, Keith. No question, just a comment. We had to put down our dog yesterday. Pretty shitty day, obviously. But I was at least able to take some entertainment and get a few laughs from seeing you excoriate those idiots on Twitter last night. Please don’t ever change and don’t ever stick to baseball. Thanks!
Keith Law: Oh man, I’m sorry to hear that. Very painful to lose a beloved pet.

Nick: How many teams are still heavily working in Venezuela? Seems like employees could really be at risk with current events.
Keith Law: Maybe 6 to 8?

Thomas: Not a Harper hater by any stretch – the guy has talent and he plays hard. I just can’t believe a guy who’s been worth 1.5 WAR or less in 3 of his 7 seasons just got a $330M contract.
Keith Law: Except Fangraphs has him worth quite a bit more, so your premise doesn’t hold.

Ben: Thoughts on the moving-back-the-mound experiment?
Keith Law: Oh hell no, Karen.

JC: Klaw, thanks for another chat. I am as frustrated as anyone about the rule for bringing up players, but is there any reason the players union would make this a top priority? The union has only seemed to care about the stars and not the rank and file. Is there a way to connect this issue to the interests of current players so they would fight for it. Kris Bryant seems to be the only one preaching about it.
Keith Law: Bryant talking about it will help – the union’s motivation is that such players would get to free agency (or even arbitration) faster and, because they’re likely to be premium players, push the upper bounds even further when they get there. Harper and Machado got to the majors at 19, and both just hit the top end of the all-time salary scale as free agents. That’s good for the union as a whole.

Rick: Oops – hit enter by accident before. Anyhow, maybe I’m in the minority and I couldn’t appreciate the “art” of it all, but I thought Roma was horrid to the point where I couldn’t even finish watching it. Not that I was a fan of Green Book but those calling it the worst BP winner in recent memory apparently didn’t see last year’s winner which may be the worst movie ever made. I’d rather suffer through another Avengers movie with my 7 year old than watch that garbage.
Keith Law: The Shape of Water was the worst movie ever made? Wow. I didn’t have it at 1 – that was The Florida Project, which didn’t get a nomination – but I thought it was good, beautifully shot, with a dumb antagonist, and a great lead performance by Hawkins.

Eric: My 3 yr old son loves cooking with me and my wife. When did you get your daughter involved in cooking with you, how did you keep her interested and what tasks are best as they are this young?
Keith Law: At 3 she was just sort of standing nearby, making kneading dough or something simple like that. Now when she wants to help she can man the stove – she’ll do anything but cut or chop, really.

Danny: Do you listen to the Arctic Monkeys and if so, what albums would you recommend?
Keith Law: Yes. Whatever You Say I Am … and AM are my favorites.

Adam: What have you seen in Braxton Davidson? Anything stand out that he needs to change? Power and recognition seem to be positives.
Keith Law: Recognition is a negative. Also seen velocity eat him up in the zone.

Jared: Do you think Jimmy Nelson can get back to his 2017 form?
Keith Law: I do not have any inside info on him at all, but I would generally bet against guys who have shoulder surgery regaining their old form. A few will, the majority will not.

Mike: I have been trying to make the point to some friends on the right that we are already have socialism in our country in that we are not pure capitalist by definition. Programs like unemployment insurance, social security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc. are by definition socialist policies. In a pure capitalist society it’s every man for himself. Why doesn’t the left stand up to the nonsense political messaging the right is clearly setting up for the 2020 campaign?
Keith Law: We are not pure capitalist – no country is – and nobody in the popular sphere is proposing pure socialism. People are proposing a stronger social safety net, which does not require any government ownership of industry. But if you say “socialism” 30% of the country will use the flag as a loincloth and vote for you.

Steve L.: Why can’t both parties admit that what Omar has stated is anti-Semitic yet there is an underlying point that is worth discussing? Or is this just grandstanding to each parties base?
Keith Law: What she stated was not anti-Semitic; what she stated was anti-Netanyahu, and perhaps anti-Israel, but Israel the nation-state is not Judaism the faith.

Dylan: Guy I know told me with a 100 percent straight face that he doesn’t get the flu shot because it gives him the flu. Instead, the vaccinate himself against the flu, he eats expired leftover meats, which helps his immune system. I kind of just backed away slowly to avoid whatever super germs he was carrying. I know people are scared of the big science words that are in vaccines but this was a new level of bonkers.
Keith Law: Yeah, he’s not very bright.

Mac: Will you be seeing Priester this spring? If so, he’s only going 1-2 innings until May. (EDIT: This is inaccurate.)
Keith Law: He’s on the list of guys I’d like to see, but I was unlikely to see him until late April or early May because it’s cold.

Tom: Would you put Jake Lamb or Christian Walker at first this year?
Keith Law: Lamb. Never thought of Walker as anything more than a bench piece.

Stats: wRC+ or OPS+?
Keith Law: wRC+ is better, in my opinion.

Daniel: Can we not call people illegal aliens? I mean many of these people are asylum seekers fleeing violence that is in a large part due to US Foreign Policy.
Keith Law: The term is meant to demean them by ‘othering’ these immigrants – they’re not humans, they’re aliens! Just like in that Genesis video. (Don’t watch it. Really.)

Chris: Hi Keith, what can we expect from Jack Flaherty this year? He struck out a ton of guys last year and has looked good this spring (though that can mean nothing) but can we expect him to really take a step forward on his peripheral stats?
Keith Law: I may have missed a step here – is there an expectation he’ll take a step forward? I think last year was great, kind of what I thought he’d be a year or two down the road, so I’m not projecting improvement.

Jon: Keith, thoughts on Cabello please? I’m reading a 55 hit tool with 50 PWR and 60 SPD, but not sure I’m sold on that. Thank you.
Keith Law: Happy to try to answer questions like this but if the surname is common I need a first name.

Tony: Klaw, no question but just wanted to say that in 2018 I cancelled all my subs in an effort to see what I really needed. Here we are in March 2019 and the only one I’ve gone back to is ESPN+ to read your work. So tell your boss you’re more valuable than Netflix or Amazon Prime to at least one person. Thank you!
Keith Law: Wait till you see my one-man rendition of In Search of Lost Time.
Keith Law: (Two Proust references in one Klawchat!)

Matt: RE: Jerry’s question about small government, free market conservatives – we still exist, we just are no longer republicans. Socially we have long agreed with the democrats. Now, everything we disagreed with the democrats doing economically the republicans are championing.
Keith Law: Very fair. I voted Republican for a while because of such issues, and because I didn’t care enough about social policies. I care more about those now – as I should have all along – and as you said, the GOP no longer stands for small government, lower taxes, or transparency, and they stand for reducing regulations without regard to societal costs and benefits.

SEC Guy: so trading picks is (mostly) not allowed, but could Baltimore accept cash considerations (or even a player) from KC to pass on a guy? Say for example KC offers Baltimore Yefri Del Rosario to pass on Adley (setting aside whether this is a good deal). Could Baltimore send the trade to the commissioner’s office as “for future considerations” and effectively trade one draft spot like that?
Keith Law: Illegal. Good way to get smacked like Atlanta did.

Jonathan: Chances on Jarrett Parker cracking the Angels’ roster? Career 112 wRC+ (in 382 PAs) and his approach this spring has been great (7 BBs and opp-approach with power).
Keith Law: Gotta flag you twice for bad use of wRC+. His career figure is badly skewed by a tiny sample in 2015 where he hit 6 homers in 52 PA; since then his wRC+ is under 100, in most of his career sample. And his limited major league time has also been skewed by platooning – he’s a LHB who’s faced LHP only about 20% of his PA. On top of that, who cares what he’s done in ten spring training games?

Cartoons Plural : Aaron Boone said that he’s not going to start the season with 2 1B bc he’ll have a 3 man bench, why haven’t they already cut bait with Ellsbury and Bird?
Keith Law: Ellsbury isn’t his call – that’s the GM’s. Bird they may just cut at the end of spring training if Voit is the 1b and they can’t find a trade target for Bird (some bad team without a DH should take a shot at him).

Tom: Assuming the D-backs get reasonably good value out of their many early draft picks this year, where could their org ranking end up in 2020? Top 5?
Keith Law: Top 5 is fair.

PhillyJake: Whole Duck: Spatchecock, indirect heat, pan with water underneath the duck to catch fat. Any standard sauce will work.
Keith Law: Interesting. I would assume this would overcook the breasts.

Adam: Any thoughts on the final season of Thrones?
Keith Law: Yes, glad it’s ending so I don’t have to hear about it any more. I hated the first book and never watched the show.

Ytics: I live among Reds fans, and I’ve never seen a group of people so hyped for the possibility of an 80-82 season. A colleague told me “if (8 or 9 separate things) break right, we could be .500 this year!” Makes me wish they’d traded Senzel and Trammell for Kluber. It’d be the baseball equivalent of blowing your savings on a coked-up weekend in Vegas.
Keith Law: Was it worth trading two valuable prospects to LA in pursuit of that goal? I don’t think so.

Cartoons Plural : Jasson Dominguez has gotten Wander Franco-level hype, have you any thoughts on the future Yankees prospect?
Keith Law: If he’s getting that kind of hype it’s not warranted. But I haven’t heard that either.

Mike: do you watch the NCAA basketball tournament (March Madness) and do you fill out a bracket?
Keith Law: No and no.

Matthew: He’s stagnated recently, but do you see a future everyday regular in Lucas Erceg?
Keith Law: Has the ability, but needs to make real adjustments to his approach. Discussed that in the Brewers org report.

Jeff: Are you planning on seeing Luis Robert next week? As a White Sox fan, I hope you’re not!
Keith Law: I’m going to try to see him when I get to Arizona and I expect he will be out with a pulled sphincter or something.

Brian: Can you explain why which position a player plays can impact their bat? I’ve read/heard numerous times that if a player moves to a different position it can impact his bat? I don’t quite understand why that would be the case. I love baseball but never played so I was curious why. Thanks!
Keith Law: Some positions require more work in-game and can lead to wear and tear; asking a player to play a new position, or one he plays poorly, can require more work pregame/between games so that he might be slightly more worn down when hitting.

Grant: Keith, have you ever thought about posting your reading activity on Goodreads? I’d be interested to see what you’re reading. I’m always looking to expand my TBR list.
Keith Law: I mention 90% of the books I read in my posts here – I end every book review with a note on what I’m reading next. I’m not giving my content to Goodreads for them to monetize.

Ryan: I have ESPN+ and The Athletic now. If I want to share something from there with a friend that doesn’t have it, is it okay for me to copy and paste? Also when a writer copies your write up of a prospect and shares it in their own article, is that legal even if they fully credit you?
Keith Law: Copying and pasting something of mine online, such as in a forum or on reddit, is both not okay and a copyright violation. Quoting me in part while discussing a player, or even just discussing my list/column, is fine, and as long as you link to me I appreciate it. I’m not worried about what people copy/paste into emails. Thank you for asking, though – I appreciate that you’ve thought about this.

P.J.: Rio Ruiz is getting good reviews in Orioles camp. He made one of your top 100 lists a few years back. Any chance he’s a late bloomer and an average player at 3B this season for the Birds?
Keith Law: I really doubt it. Hasn’t performed in the high minors at all. When he shines, though, he really shows you all he can.

WAR: Does this mean fWAR is better than rWAR? Is it just a preference, or are you just saying cherry-picking is bad? I believe the big difference between the two for position players is defense, but I’ve never been able to pick up on the industry’s preference.
Keith Law: Regarding Harper, that’s not what I was saying. I meant that when the two differ that much, you can’t cherrypick the worse of the two and wave it around like it’s definitive or even directionally correct.

Spencer: Related to some research I’ve been doing: if you have three players with identical 8 hit tools, how many HR’s should you expect in a full season if their respective power tools are a 2, 5, and 8?
Keith Law: This is too abstract to answer.

J: What is the one ridiculously overplayed classic rock song you NEVER tire of?
Keith Law: The truth is I’ve tired of just about all of them, but Boston’s “More Than a Feeling” has held up pretty well.

Phillies Prospects: Hi Keith – I am the one who asked you last week about people reposting your work. I am happy to make a comment in support, wanted to make sure this is the type of thing that would bother you.
Keith Law: Thank you, I just emailed the site in question.

Tucci Mane: Socialism involves the redistribution of the means of production to the workers, eliminating the non-working owners or investors. The social welfare state is public schools, social security, providing health insurance, etc. We should stop conflating the two things.
Keith Law: Exactly. We don’t teach this at all in school, though. HS economics classes don’t get into economic systems.

Thomas: Shouldn’t a best picture winner be something that can be broadly enjoyed like Black Panther?
Keith Law: No. Many great works of art can’t be “broadly enjoyed.”

Nick: Where have you had the best pasta in the US? Monteverde?
Keith Law: That would be the first name that came to mind. Also Rolf & Daughters, Republique, Barbuzzo, Osteria, and my kitchen.

Ben: I’ve not had the flu since I was a teen (30+ years). I’ve never had a flu shot. I minimize my exposure to others, and wash my hands multiple times a day. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Yeah, you’re lucky, and selfish too. Herd immunity requires more people to get immunized. And if you’re nearing 50, you are at greater risk of serious medical complications if you do get the flu.

Eric: I am Jewish, and have been super pro-Israel most of my life. Only until recently have I realized that defending Israel at all costs was super wrong and I was brainwashed into doing it. Criticizing Israel and AIPAC is definitely NOT antisemetic. Bibi has been absolutely awful, and doing absolutely horrific things to people of different faiths living in Israel. What Rep. Omar said was extremely on-point and not antisemetic. It was, in fact, important for her to point out. We need to stop equating defense of Israel as the only way you aren’t antisemetic. /rant
Keith Law: Thank you. Also, getting Bibi out – he’s in some serious hot water now over corruption charges – would make a huge difference in 1) how much we should support Israel the nation-state and 2) the chances of peace in the region.

Nick: Have you read The Corrections by Jonathan Franzen? I have really enjoyed it so far.
Keith Law: I didn’t care for it that much, mostly because I found the characters so unpleasant.

Chris: No question, but did you happen to hear the Jo Adell interview on “Angels recap podcast”? I was so impressed with his maturity and work ethic as a 19 year old. If he can improve his contact, I expect big things.
Keith Law: I didn’t, but that lines up with everything I’ve heard about him since he was signed.

MikeM: Bird has options left. Why would they cut him. He has no trade value. Stash him at AAA and see if he hits.
Keith Law: Sorry, that’s on me. I should have been more precise – I was thinking “cut” in a nonspecific way. But I do think that Bird has to be a DH, and the Yankees may be better served trading him now rather than burying him in AAA.

Bill: People cite Crash as the worst Oscar winner of recent memory (a well deserved nod) but I find Million Dollar Baby equally hideous…full of one-dimensional characters, manipulative scenes and hackneyed dialogue. Lifetime has done better work…do you have a recent winner that grates on you.
Keith Law: Other than Green Book, which is terrible, I’d say The Artist, which is a trifle and very self-serving (look how important movies are!). The best movie I saw in that cycle was A Separation, which won Best Foreign Language Film, and among BP nominees, Hugo and Midnight in Paris (yeah, I know) were clearly better than The Artist.

Elton: Is Mejia going to become a star in San Diego? Do you think he’s ready this year?
Keith Law: I think he’s ready, and if he stays at C he’s a star.

Chris: I think the guy above may have been asking about Antonio Cabello. Also, they will option Bird to AAA, no reason to cut him entirely, right? It’s not like he’s being blocked by Goldschmidt should things finally click.
Keith Law: That was my first guess – Cabello was my #9 prospect in the Yankees system, and I even had one exec suggest him as a top 100 guy, so yeah, he’s for real.

Andy: With Wieters entering the itinerant stage of his career, if he a disappointment? If you’re the Orioles, are you satisfied with the pick and the value he’s produced? The PECOTA projection skewed expectations, but is 8 years of a starting catcher good value?
Keith Law: Yeah, he’s a bust for a 5th overall pick.

james: how can I get your lists in canada. called espn and they said they can’t do nothing.
Keith Law: did you say signing back up through the VPN didn’t work? Even if you choose digital delivery of the magazine?

Elton: I will be embarking on Charterstone soon with my board gaming friends. Have you played any other legacy board games?
Keith Law: Only that and Pandemic Legacy. Charterstone is wonderful.

Jake: Who is more likely to make an impact in 2020: Vidal Brujan or Gavin Lux?
Keith Law: Lux is closer.

Ryan: How does J.J. Bleday compare to junior year Bryan Reynolds at Vanderbilt?
Keith Law: Bleday more polished, Reynolds more toolsy.

Ben: Do you think Charlotte, Nashville, or Raleigh would be the most viable MLB city?
Keith Law: Nashville of those three. Austin if we’re looking at any city.

PhillyJake: Adding my own $0.02 to the AIPAC discussion – Actually, scratch that. Read Thomas Friedman’s piece in yesterday’s NY Times. I can’t say it any better than he did. PS. Why did Jim Jordan get a pass for his racist reference to Steyer, replacing the S with a $ ? Yeah, I know it’s whataboutism. But there seems to be a double standard.
Keith Law: Of course there’s a double standard. Until the GOP suffers a resounding loss some November, it won’t change.

Dr. Lizardo: Keith, first of all, thanks for the chats and thanks for your postings on vaccinations. Opinion on Jesse Winker, does he make a few all-star teams before he is done?
Keith Law: I feel like he’s the kind of player who deserves to make some All-Star teams and never makes one because high-OBP middling-power LF types don’t make AS teams. But I’m a fan.
Keith Law: Good example of a guy I totally misread in HS. Saw him awful vs a bad prep LHP. Obviously not a tools guy so I didn’t have that as a fallback. Guy gets into pro ball and shows the plate discipline of an advanced 23-year-old. I reversed course right away but that’s still a mistake.

PhillyJake: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/opinion/israel-ilhan-omar.html
Keith Law: That link is Thomas Friedman, trying to make the case against Ilhan Omar, but in the process making the case for Ilhan Omar.

Jake: Your ESPN work is pretty firmly behind a paywall, which actually makes a subscription worth something. What about these sites where you get “10 Free Articles”? Do they not realize that either private browsing or clearing your cache is an easy way around this?
Keith Law: So many people won’t bother with workarounds that they likely find it’s effective enough.
Keith Law: OK, gotta move along … went overtime this week since chats the next few weeks may be intermittent as I travel for spring training. Thank you all as always for reading and for all of your questions – so many good ones, baseball and other, that I couldn’t get to this time. I’ll try to do another chat next Thursday as long as my flight is on time.

My review of the digital version of the board game Evolution is up at Ars Technica, and my review of the Kennerspiel des Jahres-winning game The Quacks of Quedlinburg is up at Paste.

Keith Law: Nature is a language – can’t you read? Klawchat.
Keith Law: (There’s your Obscure Music Quote.)

Arnold: Jays GM Ross Atkins says Vlad Jr. is not ready for the majors. He’s just trying to justify keeping him from being a Super 2 arbitration player right? He can’t be that stupid?
Keith Law: He’s not stupid, but he is too voluble. The less said, the better. Now, he’s denigrated his own player and insulted the intelligence of the fan base, to no benefit. They’re holding Vlad down to delay free agency (not Super 2 – I can’t imagine he’s in AAA *that* long), but can’t say so, so just say as little as possible.

TjF: If you were determined to get a deal done with Bryce and you felt like you had to do shorter term at high value (read: the Dodgers), would you be willing to give a 2 year opt out? Put another way – is it worth losing the pick to pay Bryce 40mm for 2 years?
Keith Law: Interesting idea, although I’d probably want to push the opt out at least one year further out, because he’s had some injury history, and I’d rather roll the dice on 2 healthy years in 3 than 2 in 2.

TjF: Is it me or does Vlad Jr look like he packed on a few extra this winter? I’m not judging, just seems like DH is going to happen sooner rather than later
Keith Law: I thought he looked as heavy as he did in the AFL, which would also point to a DH future.

Kid Koala: Your game reviews and thoughts on physical games are one of the reasons I love coming here. Just wondering if you’ve ever played Fortnite and what you think of it. Also about to be a parent and wonder about how to introduce screen games to a child. Any advice?
Keith Law: Glad you enjoy those reviews – I have not played Fortnite.

Jackson (Oakland, CA): Keith, the Cardinals advised Dakota Hudson that he should stretch out as a starter. Can you share what you believe he’ll need to work on to be effective in that role? Or would be be best suited for the bullpen, moving forward?
Keith Law: Between arm issues and lack of a good second pitch beyond the cutter, he seems better suited to the bullpen.

Oscar Madisbum: Judging from what you’e seen over the years, is it better for a team to use all your IFA money to sign one presumed 50+ player like Jasson Dominguez (supposedly going to the Yankees) or to spread the money around given how young these guys are? Thanks
Keith Law: I’d spread the money around. I haven’t seen Dominguez, but I’ve heard he’s the best player in the class but carries substantial risk factors.

Chris (Willow Spring, NC): Hi Keith – First of all, I love your minor league content, trade analysis, etc. it is the primary reason for my ESPN Insider subscription. Of the top Braves pitching prospects on the cusp of the majors, would any be best suited to a bullpen role?
Keith Law: I think any could go to the pen to develop/limit innings, but I’m not sure any would be better suited to relief than starting among the top tier. Maybe Soroka if he just can’t stay healthy in the rotation but it’s too soon for that.
Keith Law: FYI, this chat is brought to you by Trader Joe’s 73% Belgian Dark Chocolate Non-Pareils, by which I mean I bought them and am eating them while I chat.

Gavin: Regarding a nation minimum wage….do politicians really think a uniform national rate is practical? Do they not realize that it costs a lot more to live in San Francisco than it does in Rapid City? Shouldn’t this issue be one that is decided on a local level, where governments can determine a rate that meshes with the local cost of living? If the federal government is going to establish one national rate to get people in major cities to a living wage for menial work, I am moving to a small midwestern town to cook burgers at McD’s for $40 an hour.
Keith Law: Sure they realize that. Has anyone proposed a national minimum wage of $40/hour? That feels like a straw man. And nothing would stop San Francisco from mandating a higher minimum wage than the federal one. If you want to encourage people to work, it would seem that a higher wage would provide a strong incentive, no?

Tristan: Is Chris Paddack the Padres’ best starter at the end of 2019? Or do you think Lucchesi can get to another level with two pitches?
Keith Law: Paddack as the best starter in their rotation by 9/30? Sure, I’ll buy that. Don’t think Lucchesi has another level.

Nate in Seattle: Klaw, wondering your take on Marwin’s infield defense, which UZR doesn’t like. If he played 2b for a full season, would it rate as average or above average?
Keith Law: I’ll guess average but with the strong caveat that I can’t remember the last time I really watched him play 2b.
Keith Law: Or anywhere but the outfield, really.

Tristan: So it looks like Scott Kingery will start the season without a set position again. Do you think the Phils are messing with his potential by moving him around so much?
Keith Law: Yes, not a fan of doing that to young players.

TjF: Don’t want to discriminate guys based on size and handedness, but is someone really going to burn a top 5 draft pick on a 6 foot R/R first baseman?
Keith Law: Vaughn? His performance last year – against weak Pac 12 pitching – was remarkable, enough that I’m consistently hearing he’s a top 5 pick right now.

E-Rod: He might never be a 200 IP guy, but could Eduardo Rodriguez still develop into a #1 or #2 in your view? Still a lot of positives in the profile, he’s still young, and his arm’s never been hurt (even though the lower body has). Feels like he’s sometimes the forgotten man in that BoSox rotation…
Keith Law: Always been a fan. Must stay healthy, still hoping he’ll find a good enough slider to give him that missing element.

Aaron C.: People *very seriously* replying to you that the NFL uses “N/8” for ease of comparative measurement (re: Kyler Murray) makes me sad for, like, humanity.
Keith Law: If you can’t compare 3/8 and 1/2 in your head, how do you manage to get out of the house without garroting yourself on your own shoelaces?

Aaron C.: When you scout Arizona in the spring, do you (a) hit up all 15(?) camps; (b) only scout pre-determined list of players; (c) select the team/players based on good restaurant proximity?
Keith Law: Target players. Plenty of time to get from an afternoon game to a good restaurant.
Keith Law: BTW, Roland’s Market in Phoenix closed, rather suddenly, last week. Just some news for folks headed out there who might have wanted to visit based on my recommendations. It’s going to become a larger, second location of Pane Bianco.

Matt: If someone like Ben Shapiro or Candace Owens ever engaged you on a retweet or a comment you made regarding one of their posts or ‘thoughts’, would you engage them? With that in mind… has that ever happened to you?
Keith Law: It hasn’t, but the main reason I might demur would be the volume of replies I’d get from their adherents. I do use Twitter to communicate with all of you – well, some of you – and that might make it unusable.

Moe Mentum: Rank the following six retired 2nd basemen (primarily) in terms of their worthiness for Cooperstown: Bobby Grich, Jeff Kent, Willie Randolph, Chase Utley, Lou Whitaker, Frank White.
Keith Law: Whitaker, Grich, Utley, Randolph, Kent, White.

Moe Mentum: College tuition payments are an investment rather than an expense, right? But how should we measure the return on our investment? It’s not just starting salary upon graduation, but how else should (can?) we quantify the benefits, especially compared to other schools?
Keith Law: Are they an investment? I’m not sure the tuition for four years at a private university has a good enough ROI to quality. The tuition for the same degree at a public university might be the investment; the marginal cost of a typical private university would be an expense.

David: What is your opinion on the Francona’s son vs Kapler issue?
Keith Law: That is a personal matter and I don’t see how or why I would get involved.

Jesse B: How good of hitter was Michael Lorenzen coming out of college?
Keith Law: Not good at all.

John: Thoughts on Miles Mikolas extension?
Keith Law: Could be great if 2018 was real. Surprising commitment based on one year of performance, although his underlying numbers were all pretty positive.

Robert: Adley feels like a pretty solid #1 talent. Better than recent years but perhaps not generational. How do you think he stacks up talent wise to recent 1s?
Keith Law: I’ll see him in a few weeks, but I feel like he’s below the last couple of 1-1 picks.

Aaron C.: Previously, you’ve stated you’re “in” on Matt Chapman and “out” on Franklin Barreto from a growth/development standpoint. Standing pat on Matt Olson? Is this kind of…all there is? (Which is fine…I guess.)
Keith Law: He’s fine. Would be surprised if there’s more bat there, and I think his glove isn’t quite as good as his reputation.

Robert: Do you have any hope Quantril will see his stuff return? What if he ditched the breaker and became similar to Paddack if less command. Could he start?
Keith Law: Needs more stuff, period. Nothing like Paddack, unfortunately.

Jeremiah: Hey Keith…love your work. Where do you think the Padres start Tatis jr this year…double aa or triple aaa? Thx
Keith Law: Triple-A. Already has more than 4 months at AA.

JT: *Last year* was the delay in Vladdy’s service time. This year is cruel and unusual.
Keith Law: Agreed. He should have been up in May or at worst June. I said on the BBTN podcast today that if MLB had an incentive for noncontending teams to win now – such as better draft position, more international money, or increased revenue sharing – he would have been up.

DaveAlden53: In looking at prospect listings from various sources, there seems to be more variation between than in past years. I’m not going to ask why you’re higher or lower on particular players. (I’m married so don’t need any more snark.) But will instead ask whether you think increased data (launch angle, exit velo, spin rate), new focus on mechanical changes (DriveLine, etc.), and evolving analytical tools (DRC+, etc.) is causing a divergence of opinions.
Keith Law: Maybe? I use what the teams use, to the extent that I’m able. Never heard a team mention DRC+, for example, but spin rate, exit velo, extension come up quite often.

Robert: How far behind is Luis Campusano from a guy like Melendez?
Keith Law: I think I’d have Campusano ahead of Melendez. Did I rank them the other way somewhere?

Josh: Do you think the A’s will offer Kyler Murray an MLB contract over and above what he would get in the NFL Draft, like Rosenthal suggested? Seems like all of Murray’s actions have provided great leverage, but at the end of the day the money talks. If you offered him $35mm over 7 years, he’d bank that before theoretically hitting arbitration (4 option years and 3 pre-arb provided the CBA remains largely the same).
Keith Law: If I’m the A’s I just walk away. He’s not interested in baseball. Don’t throw good money after bad.

Jen Carroll: Keith – have you followed the rather precipitous fall of Mike Isabella’s empire? The Post did a pretty lurid look at his gross behavior that should be of no surprise to anyone who watched him on Top Chef (“no offense, but a girl shouldn’t beat me!”, even if she’s freakin’ Eric Ripert’s Chef de Cuisine, you tool?). But even with all that, I’m a little shocked at how quickly it all came tumbling down.
Keith Law: He just came to mind the other day when I saw a photo of some other past TC contestants – he’s completely vanished. Well-earned, though. So much toxic behavior in restaurant kitchens, likely more revelations to come.

Ken : when you worked for the BJays – did you and did you enjoy living in Toronto?
Keith Law: I never lived there, but spent a lot of time there and loved the city. Had moving cross-border been easier I would happily have moved.

Gabe: To be a major league regular, what type of line do you think Bobby Dalbec will need to produce? Will a 220/330/450 line get it done?
Keith Law: Don’t think that he gets there. That’s a very rosy OBP scenario.

TK: Another good reason you left Arizona: lawmakers last week advanced not one, not two but THREE bills that would make it easier to get vaccine exemptions and would require doctors to provide information on “potential harms” of vaccines … Ugh.
Keith Law: The population isn’t that insane, but the legislature is.

An angry Mets fan: Given that the two biggest contracts given out this offseason (Arenado and Machado) came from franchises that wouldn’t be considered financial juggernauts, can we start replacing “Team X can’t afford this player” with “Team X doesn’t want to afford this player”?
Keith Law: We should. Too many writers carrying water for owners, though.

Alex: Deranged Braves fan with a question that isn’t about the Braves. In my view, would it make strategic sense for the players union to negotiate with owners about the share of revenue that goes to players?
Keith Law: Yes, I feel like this is inevitable. I think it’s worked in the NBA, no? At least for sustained labor peace and a positive relationship between players and the league?

barbeach: Klaw: Thanks so much for the chat. Luke Voit or Greg Bird? Could Voit be for real?
Keith Law: I’d go with an outside option for 1b.

addoeh: I was pleasantly surprised to see Quinn Priester in your initial top 30 draft prospects ranking. How big of a disadvantage does he have given his season starts much later than prospects in warmer climates?
Keith Law: He’ll do fine – Kelenic went 6th, from the same general area, and with pitchers it’s even easier because you can do a relatively complete evaluation off one start, seeing stuff, size, mechanics, command, athleticism in one shot.

quack quack: Duck legs. Where do you get them? I can get whole duck, but I have to special order leg quarters and pay an arm and (ha ha) a leg for them, $14/lb. It’s cheaper to buy whole duck and cut it up, so why not just braise the breast quarters too as long as you’re at it?
Keith Law: Whole Foods has them intermittently or can order them. They freeze well, too.

Todd Boss: Harper Harper Harper! How relieved are you going to be when he finally signs and we can move on from a narrative perspective?
Keith Law: I’ve certainly had enough of this as a general story and of Philly writers/radio people taking cheap shots at Harper for (checks notes) letting his agent handle negotiations.

Sam: If the first regular season game is on March 20th, does that mark the start of the year for everyone, or just those teams? Asking so I know when Guerrero and Jimenez will magically stop needing minor league seasoning.
Keith Law: Just those teams.

Randall Stephens: How worried should I be about Kershaw? Can his FB get back to 93-94?
Keith Law: I think he can succeed averaging 90 mph, but I’m more concerned that his arm is sore. Seems like he’s never come up with a complaint about arm soreness.

Nick: Do you think Harper will take less to go to the West Coast? And how bad would it be if the Phillies were outbid?
Keith Law: No, I think he’ll take the most lucrative offer, period.

Beetlejuice: Hello Keith. Draft class looks pretty rough on the college pitching side – any guys you think have late life to jump into the top 5?
Keith Law: Right now, no.

Stanley: He just turned 18 a few months ago. Does Luis Garcia (PHI) have enough projection to get to 50 power?
Keith Law: Probably.

Mike: You’ve probably answered this at one point, but have you seen Ex Machina? Finally watched it for first time last night and it’s the best sci-fi film I’ve seen in awhile.
Keith Law: Yep, review is somewhere on this site. “I’m gonna tear up the fuckin’ dance floor” is one of the best lines/scenes of the decade.

Dave: In your organizational write-up, you noted that Detroit hadn’t gotten production from its international signings– is that because of poor scouting, not putting enough resources into either scouting or signing players, bad luck… or something else?
Keith Law: I don’t know what their investment in the region has been, but they haven’t produced players. They’ve had few big-dollar signings, though.

James: Will you have a chance to get out to San Diego to see Spencer Jones and/or Derek Diamond?
Keith Law: Right now, neither is good enough for me to make the trip.

Kevin : Are many players still older than their listed ages (cough:Pujols:cough) or is that becoming a thing of the past?
Keith Law: I still hear of those from time to time. Mostly players from Cuba now, rather than players from the DR, which was most common pre-9/11 and has since become almost nonexistent.

Mason: Who do you think is starting in center field for the Reds on opening day?
Keith Law: Why not Senzel? Who’s the better option?

Jay: Any remarks on Paddack’s ST outing, particularly on fastball location or new curveball shape he’s been working on?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. One brief ST outing when players are still getting into game shape tells us little to nothing.

CJ: Are you reporting to spring training in the best shape of your career?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

Jonny: Mount Rushmore of favorite movies ever?
Keith Law: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. Amelie. North by Northwest. Double Indemnity. Ugh, so many I have to leave out – Charade, To Catch a Thief, WALL-E … didn’t mention any musicals … The Maltese Falcon, Strangers on a Train, The Apartment … I could go on for a while.

Jim: Do teams place any personnel decisions on spring training performance or are those decisions already made in advance?
Keith Law: I think it still happens more than it should. ST should be for making sure everyone is healthy and ready to go, but less for new evaluations unless there is a tangible, physical explanation.

Matt: I was reading your foreign language learning strategy and in regards to the flashcards, would you still use the physical cards or do you know of a good online program or app that you would use now?
Keith Law: I’ve tried some apps and none has really worked for me.

Jay: Tatis callup on May 1 sound about right to you? Or more seasoning
Keith Law: He’s played less than a full season of games above low-A. I don’t know how ready he is right now – he might be so good it doesn’t matter, but I am not banging the drum for him as I am for Vlad Jr. or Eloy.

Mark: Should the Nats offer Rendon the same contract extension that Arenado just got? I’d be more heartbroken if he left than Harper honestly.
Keith Law: Yes.

Mike: Klaw, thanks for your great work. I’m looking for restaurant recommendations for Charlotte. My wife loves chain restaurants, so I want her to try something that perhaps you can recommend.
Keith Law: I have spent very little time there, so I’m sorry but I don’t have any.

AES: I can’t read the rankings because ESPN+ isn’t available to dirty foreigners. So I’m asking, it seems the hosiery trade worked out perfect for the Crimson, as Sale has been great, flags fly forever, but how much hav e koepech/moncada dropped?
Keith Law: If you sign up through a VPN and choose digital delivery, you should be able to subscribe. Moncada is no longer eligible, and Kopech only dropped because he got hurt.

Jack: In your opinion, is this offseason a disaster for the Phillies if they dont get Harper?
Keith Law: No, but it’ll be a bad winter.

John: Plan on ever going to Morgantown, WV to see Manoah or any other guys?
Keith Law: More likely I’ll get him on the road. That’s not easy to get to from here.

Mike: Did you have a chance to watch Kikuchi pitch? If so, any takeaways?
Keith Law: I’ll try to see him live, not on tv.

Beetlejuice: With the service time manipulation in the news – can you point to any players that weren’t ready in one facet and might have benefited significantly from another 2-3 months to refine that one skill (so they wouldn’t have to learn on the job in the majors)? Wouldn’t you say that is a legitimate reason to hold off on promoting a high level prospect? (especially if the player is young/hasn’t had many reps in the minors)
Keith Law: Jose Guillen comes to mind. Jumped to the majors at 19, never progressed much after that.

Greg: Hey, Keith. What do you think is the biggest reason that a large percentage of US citizens don’t seem to care/realize that the president is implicated in many, many crimes? Crimes that would be the hugest scandal in the world for any previous president. Is it a lack of knowledge? Tribalism run amok? Or the gradual normalization and slow trickle of all the crimes just makes everybody shrug. Rick Santorum actually defended Trump’s constant lying about Russia by saying it wasn’t surprising because Trump lies about everything.
Keith Law: Tribalism run amok is a good way to phrase it. Many people do not care about issues beyond those of their religion, such as trying to ban abortion, or protecting their own race.

Teddy Ballgame: Best pizza around Scottsdale, go. I’m there for two days in early March.
Keith Law: Bianco, Pomo, cibo, Craft 64. Apparently I need to try Myke’s pizza truck, too.

Sean: Where do you stand on intangible traits? Some are clearly just voo doo (like clutchiness), while some might be real but just impossible to quantify and therefore shouldn’t be included in contract negotiations? Can you give examples of some of the latter?
Keith Law: If they exist enough for us to identify them, they’re probably not intangible. Work ethic would be one. “Desire” gets a little wonky. Good in the clubhouse is mostly bullshit.

Jon: Nolan Arenado was hardly a league average player with a .772 OPS away from Coors last season. Obviously a different story in Denver. That being said, what are your thoughts on the contract? Too rich for my blood at zero fault to arenado. Go get your money!
Keith Law: Great for the player. It’s not fair to just look at a Rockies player’s road splits, though – if you put Arenado at sea level he wouldn’t post that road stat line. But I don’t think I’d want him at that salary level into his 30s.

Dan: Hi Keith, do you think Miles Mikolas and Shane Bieber can repeat their success from last year? St Louis obviously believes in Mikolas.
Keith Law: Bieber had a 4.55 ERA and will probably be more homer-prone going forward.

Evan: Ke’Bryan Hayes a 25 HR guy if the MLB ball doesn’t change?
Keith Law: I’ll buy that.

Joel: Are you buying Moniak’s second half? Are the tools still there to be a first division regular?
Keith Law: I’m not buying that.

Deke: What do you think of Joe Sheehan’s argument that the pace of play stuff is almost entirely borne of writers wanting to go home sooner, and the industry’s rising revenues prove that there’s not really a problem?
Keith Law: Partial agreement, partial disagreement. I do think there is a pace of play issue, but it’s 90% about commercials, not this other crap (although I’d like to see someone nail hitters’ feet in the batter’s box). Rising revenues do show that the sport is healthy, but revenues have risen faster than fan interest (such as the total # of people interested in the sport).

Brett: Do you feel like a lot of the hype or mystique that usually begins a new season has been lessened or tainted by greedy ownership and the labor strife? In my small group of Baseball friends, I can’t remember a time they were less excited for a new season.
Keith Law: Yes.

Cartoons Plural : Wander Franco starts 2019 in Bowling Green. Where do you expect him to finish the year at?
Keith Law: Port Charlotte.

Kevin : Was you (still are) a fan on early 90’s grunge/alternative?
Keith Law: Yep.

War biscuit : What order do you prefer these college SS: Holland, Stott, Shewmake and Davidson
Keith Law: I just ranked them all on Tuesday.

The Decider: Are you doing a breakout players for 2019 column?
Keith Law: Yes.

Kevin : Seems like Democrats should talk about farm bailouts being actual socialism as opposed to healthcare?
Keith Law: The right’s messaging on “socialism” has been far too effective, because most Americans don’t know what socialism means – really, I’d guess 60-70% could not correctly define the term – and thus saying “we’re not socialists!” isn’t very useful. The left needs better messaging on this: these are policies that will do X, Y, and Z *for you*.

Nathan: I LOVE my Anova but I feel like it’s steak after steak after steak with maybe a chicken thrown in once in a while. Any good ways to mix it up or just use it for what it’s good at? Also, do you vacuum seal bags, use ziplocks, etc.?
Keith Law: Vacuum seal. I don’t eat steak so I use mine for chicken thighs, duck legs, occasionally pork chops, even some vegetables that require a long cooking time like beets.

addoeh: For young pitchers where you see their long term future is as a reliever, when should the team move him to reliever? Is it when he is major league ready? At what point should they stop thinking that there could be a small chance to be a starter?
Keith Law: I think performance will usually tell you.
Keith Law: Or health. If a guy starts breaking down you’d rather move him sooner rather than later.

John: What did you eat at Xochi? Sorry if you’ve posted that somewhere and I missed it.
Keith Law: The crispy duck and some divine chocolate thing (river and rocks, something like that). To die for.

Mark: You’ve probably tackled this before but once more for idiots in the back like me… Why shouldn’t teams behave exactly like the Blue Jays are with Vlad? It just seems like good business given the parameters that exist right now. Baseball writers will wring their hands but I don’t think the teams give a damn about that. I suppose you run the risk of pissing the player off, but 7 years is a long time and feelings can (and probably do) change in that period of time. I agree that the current system is idiotic, but I cant really fault teams for doing what they think is the best business decision, and in most cases, locking in a top young player for an extra year seems like a sound business decision given the squishiness of the downsides.
Keith Law: My main baseball problem with this is the idea that you can accurately predict 1) what the player will be like 7 years from now 2) what your team will be like 7 years from now and 3) what the rules will be like 7 years from now.
Keith Law: Plus, what if the Jays had called Vlad up in June, and he’d hit like Mike Trout for three-plus months? Maybe they like their projections for 2019 more and decide to add to the team rather than subtracting? Maybe more fans show up, or buy season tickets, so there’s more cash in the till going forward? The blanket assumption that holding the player down will be, unequivocally, a positive for the team does not hold water for me.

Paul: I feel like that guy disproved his own point. If he moved because of a similar wage in a low COLA area, then cities would be forced to pay a living wage to keep their residents. Thurs showing a benefit of a Federally mandated minimum wage.
Keith Law: Fair point. We tried to pass one in Delaware a year ago, to $11, and it failed by something like two votes, so I’m planning to work to unseat my Senator, who voted against it.

Scott: Are you getting the new Castles of Burgundy app?
Keith Law: Is it out yet? I will when it’s available.

Craig R.: Keith, early MLB Draft question. Any specific HS player that might have the most helium or chance to jump up come June?
Keith Law: I just ranked a top 30 the other day; if I like a player the way you’re described, he’s ranked that way on the list.

Mike: Loved your oscar podcast, and hoping there is a regular Klaw podcast sometime in the future. Do you have any podcasts (besides G & L) that you listen to regularly?
Keith Law: thanks! I listen to Hidden Brain, Crimetown, Hugh Acheson Stirs the Pot (been *really* enjoying that lately), BBC’s The Inquiry.

Zach: Isn’t it “radical” that AOC was the most rational speaker at the hearing yesterday? Pun intended!
Keith Law: The young women reps were way more prepared and presented better than the majority of the men. Amazing what a little diversity will do for any group.

Robby: As a prospect enthusiast, who is the top Midwest draft prospect that I should go out and see when the snow melts?
Keith Law: I think Misner was the top midwest guy on my list the other day, unless you count Texas as Midwest (I do not).

Jeff: If you had to pick one guy from the Dbacks that has the highest star potential in the minors, who is it? Thomas? Chisolm?
Keith Law: Chisholm now, only real competition for that is Robinson.

Tim: Will Moncada be a horror show at 3B?
Keith Law: I saw him play it in the AFL and I thought he was adequate. Not average, but decent enough to think he might stay there.

Joe: Everyone makes fun of the “best shape of his life” reports every spring…but Cubs Twitter made a good point when David Bote came into camp in great shape. As a lower draft pick who was never a top prospect, this is probably his first offseason where he has been able to concentrate on baseball instead of saving up money for the season. Not paying minor leaguers is so counterproductive.
Keith Law: I like your point although I don’t know that this makes Bote’s projections any different.

Joshue: It’s unfair to think Hudson Potts has to move off 3B now, right? Is he the most obvious trade candidate for SD?
Keith Law: I wrote in my Machado reaction piece that he was trade bait.
Keith Law: I don’t see him profiling as a regular at another position, so dealing him is the best use of his value.

Nick: A thought I had on the whole question of service time manipulation and the depressed FA market…what if MLB decided that teams who didn’t win at least x games for y consecutive seasons, with a combination of low payroll commitment, saw a dip in their share of the league revenue. Like, a team wins fewer than 75 games for 3 years a never cracks the top 22 in league payroll during that times sees their share of the revenue drop from 1/30 to 1/45 or 1/60? Would this provide enough incentive for teams to sing more middle class FAs who will help them be competitive?
Keith Law: Yes – I’d like to see revenue sharing tied to wins. I’ve come around on changing some of these fundamental assumptions about the game, because teams have stopped distributing as much revenue to the players, and that’s untenable both as a practical matter and, to me, as a philosophical issue.

Joel: Which Luis Garcia would you rather have?
Keith Law: The one who made my top 100, of course.

Brian: To address the earlier question on a $40 minimum wage…wouldn’t people deciding to move from San Fran to more rural areas be an overall positive outcome for the country?
Keith Law: Debatable. We may not be at the ideal equilibrium, but getting more people into cities, using public transport & ditching cars, would have positive externalities.
Keith Law: Hey, it looks like Harper might have signed with the Phillies after all. That’s a lot of full diapers over nothing.

Tim: Will we see Madrigal in the show this year?
Keith Law: I would be very surprised.
Keith Law: They didn’t call up Eloy when he was ready last year. Madrigal would be barely a year out of college.

Jesus: Are you even willing to accept that there are plenty arguments that The Green Book was a very good movie? Or do you simply decide anyone who enjoyed it is wrong because you say so?
Keith Law: That would be the loaded question fallacy, “Jesus.” Kindly take the door on your left.

JD: Pretty sure you’ve answered this before, but what board games would you introduce to a ~6-year-old?
Keith Law: That’s one I’m happy to answer regularly – Ticket to Ride First Journey is perfect. I’m told the kids’ versions of Catan and Carcassonne are also fun. You can play One Night Ultimate Werewolf with kids that young too. My niece is 6 and really likes Jaipur now, which is great if a bit surprising because of the foresight required to play it. (She’s bright, though.) I think the base Dominion game could work if you’re selective about the cards you choose for the table.

Edgar: Have you seen Josh Jung? My goodness that is a smooth swing.
Keith Law: Only video. He’ll be a tough get but I will try.

David: Hi Keith. My fellow Cards fans keep suggesting Flaherty is on the same level as Buehler. I disagree – but is it close?
Keith Law: No, not really close, but Flaherty is really damn good (and, cough, I regularly ranked him on my top 100 too).

Guest: Despite the horror show that was most of the main category winners, I actually thought the Oscars were better w no host. Either give me the SNL troika as hosts for everything or go hostless, I say.
Keith Law: Agreed. I thought the show itself was mostly very entertaining, and some of the presenters were great (McCarthy/Henry, Mulaney/Awkwafina). Grierson and Leitch commented on their podcast that if Roma had won Best Picture, everyone would be talking about how great the telecast was.

justin: Are you still a believer in Arcia?
Keith Law: Yep. Still young, very very talented.

Paul: Hey Keith – sounds like UGA has a couple stud pitchers for the 2020 draft. Excited to get back to Athens??
Keith Law: Hancock maybe, Wilcox for ’21. I think I’ll end up there this year to see a road team and get a look at Schunk.

Jay: ESPN subscription renewal coming soon. Are you able to share any insights on your ongoing status at ESPN (ie. beyond 2019)?
Keith Law: I have no updates – my contract runs through December, and that’s all.

Ira: Why aren’t more players taught multiple positions when being developed in the minors? It would give teams more flexibility and the player would have added value.
Keith Law: I feel like most teams do this already, no? I hear it constantly when making calls for the rankings.

Cartoons Plural : Tyler Glasnow’s pause in his delivery, good or bad thing?
Keith Law: Neither. What may be good for one pitcher may be bad for another.

Brian: I really thought nothing would beat Don Jr as the real life GOB Bluth and then came Matthew Calamari
Keith Law: I so wanted to make a Gene Parmesan joke but Lana Berry beat me to it.

EL: Canadian baseball fan who must know: Who’s the better Naylor? The better Pompey?
Keith Law: The younger, and the younger.

Bill: Can Keon Broxton hit enough to be an everyday CFer?
Keith Law: IMO no. Did it once, for most of a year, that’s it.

JR: Do you bother watching Spring Training games on mlb.tv? I’m guessing only if you know a top prospect is going to be playing?
Keith Law: Because I often can’t see the angles I want I find the experience rather frustrating. And it’s spring training, where the games are (Allen Iverson voice) PRAC-tice.

Andy: I am trying to get into earlier Opeth. They are interesting musically, but I really can’t figure out how to like the harsh singing. While I can understand the music needs the harsh singing, it completely takes me out of the music. How do you compensate for music that’s good, other than cookie monster growling?
Keith Law: I hear you (pun intended). I can tune that out with some artists, like Opeth, less with others, like Obituary, who have long done very interesting stuff on the border of thrash and death metal but whose singer sounds like he’s flossing with a chainsaw.

Zihuatanejo: In a recent spring training game, in all but 3 PAs for the entire game the Dodger hitters swung at the first pitch they saw. Do you think that was: 1) a random thing that happened; 2) a directive from the dugout; or 3) an inside joke between the players?
Keith Law: I’d guess 2, then 3, but not 1.

Robert: Did you drop in to any new restaurants in austin last week?
Keith Law: Better Half, Micklethwait, Backspace, Cane Rosso (been to the Dallas one).

JD: Doesn’t keeping somebody down for service time reasons violate the CBA? I thought that was why management always pretends it’s for other reasons, and you occasionally get grievances. So it’s not just “the best business decision,” it’s against the rules
Keith Law: It does. But you can’t prove it if they don’t admit it.

PULLEY: Regarding Vlad Jr and the BS service time manipulation… why doesnt a player like him or kris Bryant in 2015, when it’s obvious they are being held down for manipulation purposes only come out and say something like “if I am sent down I will not negotiate any extension in the future and will fully explore free agency no matter what.”
Keith Law: Idle threat.

Zach: Minimum Wage – Federal steps in because if not Texas and Mississippi would be paying $2.50 an hour.
Keith Law: You think they’d pay that much?

Dave: I was reading Fangraphs Top Prospects list (I know you think highly of them and work with them at times) and in their writeup of Andres Gimenez (on which they had him ranked much higher than you) they mention that ppl may have gotten a different impression on him based on when they saw him. They said he looked pretty blah in the AFL but very possibily couldve been due to fatigue from a long season. I know that you saw him in person at the AFL and came away relatively “meh” on his hitting. Did you factor in the potential fatigue aspect at that point or do you feel that that may be overblown.
Keith Law: I do factor that in, but 1) that’s not the only time I saw him and 2) I ask a *lot* of people before doing those rankings.

Brian: Dylan Cozens has impressed people in Phillies camp. Does a guy like that with massive tools and massive holes always have a chance to break out, or once he hits a certain age/stage of development do the holes become very unlikely to be closed enough to take advantage of the tools?
Keith Law: One massive tool, the power, that’s it. Not a good player, just a guy with raw power.

Tyler: Today Liberty Media showed Braves’ revenue surged to $442M for 2018. Their 2019 payroll is currently lower than last year after winning the NL East. What is wrong with this picture?
Keith Law: Well, an hour ago, you might have argued they were still favorites or close to it to win the division. Now…

Jeremy: No question, thanks for the chats. Also, another newer pizza place in Phoenix that is fantastic is BASE pizza on Lincoln.
Keith Law: Adds to the list. Taking suggestions, of course.

Phillies Prospects: How frustrating is it when people repost your work that was behind the ESPN paywall? Where Siani or Newell close to the top 30?
Keith Law: Not just frustrating – it’s illegal. If you see it, say something, to me or to the site’s operators. Neither was close but I will certainly see both as they play within an hour of me. Also the HS pitcher near Philly whose name escapes me right now.

War biscuit : I believe Wilcox is a draft eligible sophomore so he may be eligible for 2020
Keith Law: Didn’t realize that, so much the better if he is.

Nat: What’s your opinion of Harper getting $330 mil over 13 with no opt-outs according to Passan?
Keith Law: Love it.
Keith Law: Phillies are the preseason favorites for the division now. Granted, that doesn’t mean much when the games start, but still, good deal.

Cartoons Plural : Saw Detroit ranked as a Top 10 farm, mainly because of apparently lots of MLB ready talent? Is it quantity or quality?
Keith Law: They’re not a top 10 farm.

Pierre: Phillis pitching sucks after Nola.
Keith Law: Good taek.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Might do a Periscope tomorrow now that we have more news to discuss, but I’ll wrap this one up here. Thank you as always for reading, and for all of your questions. I’ll write something up on Harper this afternoon. Enjoy your weekends.