Klawchat 6/27/19.

My ranking of the top 25 MLB players under age 25 is up for ESPN+ subscribers, as is a scouting post that covers Grayson Rodriguez, Deivi Garcia, and more.

Keith Law: Well known in the streets and the gutters. Klawchat.

Dave C: If the Mets didn’t make that ill advised Cano/Diaz trade would they have a top 5 minor league system after this past draft?
Keith Law: Probably? Have to factor in what other teams have done since as well, but with Kelenic/Dunn both doing so well plus a very strong draft and only one major graduation (Alonso) they’d be in great shape.

Chris: What is Tony Gonsolin going to be long term?
Keith Law: Still TBD. Starter potential.

Scott: How close was Victor Robles to making your top 25 under 25 list?
Keith Law: I didn’t go beyond 25. Sorry.

Dave C: Now that he’s signed where would Allan slot versus the Mets other top pitching prospects- Kay, Peterson, Szapucki and Woods-Richardson?
Keith Law: Behind Kay. I think ahead of the others.

Zach: Are we finally seeing the version of Kevin Newman you’ve long championed?
Keith Law: Mostly. Bear in mind his BABIP is not going to stay at .400+ – same for Bryan Reynolds – but Newman’s high contact rates will help him even as that drifts downward.

Dave C: Can Dominic Smith be an effective Left Fielder? He’s at 0 DRS, -.2 UZR on fangraphs but I don’t know if that’s sustainable.
Keith Law: My guess is no, although I’d like him to prove me wrong on that.

Hollis: Cody Bolton just got promoted to AA. Is he a Top 100 guy in your next round of evaluations?
Keith Law: No.

Moe Mentum: Is the skepticism more about the two-city model in general, or specifically about Montreal’s and/or Tampa’s support system (investors, fans, voters, etc.)? In other words, could other cities pull off a shared team approach?
Keith Law: Two cities that were closer might pull it off, but why would two different cities fund stadiums that would only be used 40-41 times a year? No team is paying to build two; most refuse to even build one.

Scott: How do you grade the year that Carter Kieboom is having? He was over matched in the big leagues although in a very SSS. He has however absolutely RAKED in Fresno. How do you reconcile that and how has it changed your thoughts on him as a prospect either for better or worse?
Keith Law: Raking in AAA doesn’t change my view on any prospect given the juiced ball there.

Dan: Jazz Chisholm seems to be hitting the ball hard, just not all that often. Any reason to be concerned about the hit tool in his exposure to AA pitching?
Keith Law: Nope. I’m still in.

Keith Law Disciple: Should I have any optimism for Logan Warmoth – got promoted to Double A, but not showing much in the way of power and strikes out a ton.
Keith Law: I’m out … every scout I’ve asked who’s seen him has buried him.

Jake: Are you downgrading Royce Lewis because of his swing change? Do you still think he can be a 60 hitter or is there legitimate concern here?
Keith Law: He’s not a future 60 hitter with the current swing/setup, but what prevents him from going back to his old mechanics? I take guys like him and slide them down a little bit to acknowledge the change, but it’s not like I’d drop him out of the top 50 for this. There is no reason he can’t just restore the way he hit last year and become a top 10-15 prospect again.

Andrew: Who would you rather have for the next ten years, Paddock or Gore?
Keith Law: Gore.

Jake: Kowar got the bump to AA and had a nice first start. How long before Lynch follows the former Gators?
Keith Law: He hasn’t pitched in almost four weeks, so it may be a while.

Todd: Whats Deivi Garcia’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Good mid-rotation guy. Lot of risk with that frame, but the stuff is real.

Jose: Do you go to Cape this year?
Keith Law: Although I’d love to, my schedule in July is not cooperating and I may skip it this year for minor league stuff, Under Armour, and non-baseball commitments.

Tim : I watched the college World Series and thought it was great baseball. But I didn’t understand why there was so much bunting. Can you explain it? Aren’t the analytics against bunting at the mlb level the same at the highest college level?
Keith Law: Yes, but college coaches are obsessed with sac bunting as a whole. It’s easier to teach bunting than to teach hitting, I guess.

JC: Hi Keith- I know you haven’t been as high on Torkeleon as others. While he isn’t a good defender, has anything on your opinion changed at all?
Keith Law: That’s simply not true.

cm: Are you aware of any studies that say changing arm slot while pitching can increase arm health? If not, any thought on this idea?
Keith Law: Doesn’t it depend on the before and after?

Nelson: Keith, ever consider putting more uplifting links in your stick to baseball page? Sometimes its 25 downright depressing links
Keith Law: Well, the world is burning, diseases are spreading, and the Supreme Court just told voters democracy is optional. My links aren’t depressing; reality is.

Dd: I would have a really hard time getting excited for Biden, his voting record, Anita Hill, the gaffs.. 100% of my energy would be Anti- Trump. Not sure that Biden turns out young/unreliable voters out either because he isn’t that progressive.
The Dems are probably running at least 10 people who are a better choice.
Do you think we see Biden drop in the polls as people learn about his lousy voting record and voters get to know any of the four female Senators, all whom would be excellent choices?
Keith Law: I really don’t think he’s going to end up the candidate.

Steve: Think Adell gets a call up at some point this season?
Keith Law: No.

Jeff: With the picks Atlanta made from rounds 11-19, how much did that increase their draft haul? Is this a long-term strategy or just a one-time thing?
Keith Law: Very good strategy for this year’s draft class. It turned their draft class from “huh” to “pretty good.”

Jordan: What the heck are the Astros going to do with Kyle Tucker? Springer, Reddick, Alvarez and Brantley are blocking him and he needs to be playing in the big leagues right now.
Keith Law: Feels like trade bait. Doesn’t help that someone in Houston keeps leaking stories that he’s not liked in the clubhouse.

Neema: Hey Keith, love your work on ESPN! What are your thoughts on JP Crawford’s improved play this year? Do you think the breakout we’re seeing so far is legitimate?
Keith Law: Like Newman, his BABIP is unsustainable, but I still think the rest of the skill set is real – he’s always had a good eye and willingness to get to two strikes, and he has all-fields doubles power, but he got very pull-happy in Philly (and in AAA). He’s gotten back to using the whole field again and it’s helping.

Matt: How uncommon is it that Giolito has found success by largely going away from his curve, which it seems like most prospect evaluators (including you I believe) saw as his strongest pitch when he was coming up through the minors. Thanks!
Keith Law: It’s very surprising but if the pitch isn’t working for you you can’t force it. The changeup is plus, and he’s commanding the FB like never before.

Mac: You a Tesla or other EV guy?
Keith Law: Would love one but not at the current cost. I have had a Civic hybrid for six years and love it.

Kevin : In a fair world MLB would help pay for a new Rays stadium in Tampa Bay after using the region to create leverage for other teams for decades, but because life is shit should I just resign to losing my team in 8 years?
Keith Law: Yep, I think they’re toast.

Gary: What do you think is Jeff McNeil’s true talent level?
Keith Law: He’s third in the majors in BABIP, so we can probably bet on a good bit of regression. (Sorry, I didn’t mean to make this the “so-and-so’s BABIP is unsustainable chat.”) That said, as long as he keeps his K% so low he’s going to have plenty of value even without much power. Probably makes him a soft regular whenever the BABIP comes down to earth – although his ‘natural’ BABIP is probably higher than league average, given what we’ve seen in the last 11 months.

Brian: I’m not sure if you saw deadspin’s piece today about foul ball injuries but after reading it, how can MLB defend not extending netting at every park?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen the piece, but come on, are we waiting for a child to die?

Joe: Aside from drastic moves organizationally (like the Astros a couple years ago) is it common for scouts to change teams somewhat frequently? Or would it not be uncommon for one scout to spend an entire career with an organization despite several changes in GM?
Keith Law: Scouts change teams all the time. There’s still too much of a sense in front offices that they’re … not quite disposable, but more easily replaced than they actually are.

Ryan: The Dbacks tried hiring an agent to be their GM and it was a train wreck. Same thing seems to be happening to the Mets
Keith Law: Never hire off the interview. Hire off the CV, and maybe references, but never, ever hire off the interview.

Todd: Did you think Gleyber would have 30HR type potential?
Keith Law: No but the current baseball has skewed any HR projections I had for players. I thought Alonso would be a 35-40 HR guy and he’s on pace for 50.

Jack Meoff: Keith big fan!! Thank you for all you do. Is Catan a top 10 board game for you?
Keith Law: In historical importance and influence, yes. It might be #1. In my personal preferences, no. It’s a fine game, but you can wait too long between turns, and it doesn’t work with two players.

Josh Nelson: Is having just three starting pitchers the new market inefficiency? Asking for White Sox fans.
Keith Law: It’s a bold strategy, Nelson. Let’s see how it works out for you.

Kevin: With the Red Sox bullpen struggles is there any chance someone like Tanner Houck can provide relief help in the 2nd half of the season or is it too soon for him? Keep up the good work!
Keith Law: Would love to see him.

Eric: Was Yordan Alvarez eligible for your 25 under 25 list?
Keith Law: Players who still have ROY eligibility are not eligible for the list.

Ben: Would you guess we see some more deals happen earlier in July this year? 1 win would make a huge difference for a ton of these bubble teams
Keith Law: Yes. That’s my hope as well.

TheLostBoy: Are you a weekly watcher of “Last Week Tonight”?
Keith Law: I was, and I still like the show, but in this environment it’s just more things to get angry about when I am already angry enough about the world we’re creating for the next generation. (Or the generation after that, if we haven’t scorched the planet by then.)

Adam: Mackenzie Gore is dominating A+ and doesnt look like he’s being challenged. Do you see a quick ascent to the majors in the next 12 months or is he still a few years away?
Keith Law: I could see him mid-next year; the Padres don’t wait, and why would you wait on an arm that good already? But I can’t see them pushing him to the majors this year.

J: Do you happen to have like an author page, that has all of your articles for e+?
Keith Law: No, ESPN discontinued those. I asked for a new one but was told they don’t do them. (shrug)

Ben: Starting Adley at a bad level?
Keith Law: Have they announced where he’s starting? I haven’t seen that. Also, I assume that was a typo.

J: Okay, so instead of changing the literal distance a pitcher must pitch the ball, the chance MLB addresses the problem with the ACTUAL ball?
Keith Law: First they’d have to admit they have a problem.

Jason: Drew Waters is raking in AA, but he’s only 20. What’s a realistic ETA for him? And how excited should I be about him, recognizing I’m just scouting a stat line.
Keith Law: He’s raking but also striking out a lot and barely walking, which isn’t a fatal flaw but could indicate some deficiencies in the approach that are getting masked by the high average and power.

Ben: How come the Dbacks didn’t select Matt Allen with any of their picks if he was so good?
Keith Law: Because they didn’t want to commit well over slot to signing him.

Baltimurph: Following up on your scouting report, do you think Grayson Rodriguez is a future MLB starter as is or do you think his mechanics need to be totally rebuilt?
Keith Law: I can’t think of an MLB starter who throws like that. Any examples I could come up with who were close ended up getting hurt.

romorr: Adley was thought of as a fast riser. Him going to GCL/A- should put that to rest, right?
Keith Law: Wrong.
Keith Law: Where he starts isn’t really relevant to the question of how fast he’ll move. He may start in Aberdeen because it’s so close to Baltimore, for example.

Zac: Is Kumar Rocker trending towards a top 5 pick in 2 years?
Keith Law: I said on the podcast this morning that I’d go top 10, but not stronger. There’s a whole class of players we’ve barely seen for the 2021 draft, and putting Rocker in a bucket like that now doesn’t adequately consider the rest of the candidates.

John: Esteban Florial a future all star?
Keith Law: I don’t see it. Pitch recognition is still a problem.

Ben: Have you ever had surgery? Would you be scared?
Keith Law: Twice. Wasn’t scared but can’t say I enjoyed any of it.

Chris: Given how bad the Mets pitching is, I’d consider selling incredibly high on Alonso for 4-5 good young arms and bump Smith to 1B. Am I crazy?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine ownership would allow it, and fans would riot, but trading Alonso now for something – they’re not getting 4-5 good young arms, those deals do not exist – would have merit. I think it’s way more likely they deal Dom.

Rick Saul: What happened to Manuel Margot’s offense?. Has ship sailed on him being a productive MLBer?
Keith Law: Still just 24.
Keith Law: All the ex-prospects who broke out this year should serve as a nice reminder to stop giving up too soon on ex-prospects.

Sally: Hello Keith big fan. Is the Ooni oven great?
Keith Law: I love it. I’ve gotten it up to 900 degrees (actually too hot, the bottom of the crust started to burn), can hold it in the 770-800 range for a while, found it easy to work with. You just have to keep feeding it pellets to keep the temp up; once it drops, it drops fast and takes a while to heat back up.

Ryan: Did you see the article on The Athletic on the Ranger’s failed de-load program? Are there any other teams trying new throwing programs to help prevent arm injuries?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen that either but I have heard a lot of whispers of something they were trying that pitchers/agents suspected was contributing to their rash of injuries. Always hard to tell what’s legit and what’s griping.

cm: On the arm slots, I meant using more than one slot while pitching. For example, like David Cone used to at times.
Keith Law: Ah, thank you, I did not understand. I don’t think so; I would guess that for most pitchers it would increase injury risk because you’re trying to use muscles you don’t normally use to throw.

Adam: WIth so much young talent under the age of 24 succeeding early in MLB, do you see arbitration years being adjusted with new CBA? Seeing players like Judge/Bellinger/ getting under 1Mil per year is insane
Keith Law: I would really like to see that. The union has to change its focus for the next negotiation towards paying young players more, whether via more arb years or earlier free agency.

Mike: Are Casey Mize’s mechanics going to lead to continues arm problems?
Keith Law: No.

Frank: As a D-Backs fan how excited should I be about Tommy Henry? He was dominant in the CWS. While he doesn’t have the velocity everyone is obsessed with now the control and movement looked outstanding.
Keith Law: Back-end starter.

Indians system: Is Mahoning Valley key to Indians’ future? Rocchio, Valera, Hankins, Delgado
Keith Law: Their strongest affiliate for future talent.

Sally: How often do you and Chris Crawford hangout? Love you both on twitter
Keith Law: We’ve only hung out 2-3 times, but we talk online every day. Mostly baseball and movies but other stuff too. Great dude.

Robert: Does the uniqueness of Nick Madrigal’s profile make him more difficult to assess as a prospect?
Keith Law: No.

Uli Jon: My friend is going to Gen Con. Do you have an updated dining guide or just a few places you can recommend?
Keith Law: I eat at the food trucks that line up next to the convention center. There are some great ones – Keplinger’s Fresh Catch is the first place I eat each year.

Feeling A Draft: Based on what you said about this coming year’s draft on the BBTN podcast do you think it would be smart of teams at this year’s trade deadline to try to acquire competitive balance picks?
Keith Law: For sure. But most teams want to retain those, so my guess is only 1-2 get moved.

BigDaddeh: Do you think the Mets success is going to lead to other teams using former agents as GMs?
Keith Law: (spit take)

Paul: Hey Keith – your love for Oreo’s is well-known and righteous. I saw your tweet last night as I happened to be eating an Oreo Blizzard from Dairy Queen, and it got me wondering: any KLaw thoughts on Oreo Blizzards? Also if this question makes the chat, I’d just like to also announce that Oreo McFlurries are trash and don’t deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Oreo Blizzards, thank you for your time.
Keith Law: I do love oreos mixed into ice cream. When I go to Culvers (rare, but I love it), my go-to is a chocolate concrete with oreos and pecans.

Bob Pollard: Sorry if you’ve addressed this (probably have many times), but where do you stand on “clutch is a myth/no it’s real”?
Keith Law: It’s a myth. I explain at length in Smart Baseball.

BigDaddeh: Is Nick Solak an every day guy one in the majors?
Keith Law: I’d bet the under.

Tom C: Why don’t you think Adell will get called up this year? Setback because of his injury earlier this season? I was thinking maybe it could be like a Trout scenario where they call him up late and prep to be up for good next year.
Keith Law: He’s barely played this year, and they’d be adding him to the 40-man before they needed to do so.

Andrew: Corbin Martin BB/9 at A and AA was 2.5, now this year 4.5 in AAA (was 5.5 w/ HOU). Reason for concern or just growing pains?
Keith Law: Again, the ball in AAA is different than in AA.

Dave: What did you think when you heard that the Mets were having Rosario take reps in CF? I don’t know what the heck happened to his defense at SS but it has been atrocious going on two years now. Do you think he could make a plus defensive CFer?
Keith Law: His regression on defense has to be laid on the coaching staff. I saw him in the minors, so did everyone else. Nobody had him playing like this.

Mat Ji: I’m old enough to remember back when Bauer was going to stop being an internet troll….way back in January of 2019.
Keith Law: He’s gone out of his way to attack at least two women writers I know just since this season began. He can say whatever dumb shit he wants to me, but the story I heard the other day – I don’t know if I can repeat any of this – is beyond trolling. Writers who continue to talk him up are just enabling him.
Keith Law: And, by the way, there are 750+ other players out there. I’m sure there’s at least one more guy who is analytically-minded and focused on self-improvement through modern methods, and would be happy to talk about it on the record.

JP: Is Yamamoto a mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: No.

alek: what is Alec Bohm’s offensive potential
Keith Law: I think there’s some middle-of-the-order potential there. He’s 90% likely to do it at first base, though, and the Phillies have a pretty good one.

John: What’s Luis Arraez’s ceiling, everyday 2B? More likely outcome utility guy?
Keith Law: More likely utility guy but I wouldn’t rule out everyday.

romorr: Adley to GCL to knock off rust, then to A-. From press conference.
Keith Law: Yeah I don’t see how that would mean he’s not a fast mover … why couldn’t he start next year in AA?

Chris: Would you include C Will Smith in a trade for Felipe Rivero? What else would the Dodgers have to kick in?
Keith Law: I would not but I value relievers lower than the trade market seems to.

Mark: When do you think Luis Urias gets recalled?
Keith Law: I mean, he should have been up a month ago.

Jackson: Do you project Alzolay as a SP? Ceiling?
Keith Law: I think so, as long as he can get LHB out with the FB/CB (or his CH really improves).

Capt. Gore: “if we haven’t scorched the planet by then” he said as he hoped in a plane and flew across the country….again…
Keith Law: Capt. Gore: “Yet you participate in society. Curious! I am very intelligent.”

Jonathan: Thoughts on Jake Cronenworth. Hitting well and heard he was up to 95 from the mound.
Keith Law: Interesting. Up to 96 with a plus CB, small mechanical tweaks last year at the plate that let him drive the ball better. Older guy for a prospect, so I’m skeptical as always of how much is just age vs level, but there are tangible skills there.

Trey Anastasio: Have you ever seen Phish live?
Keith Law: OK someone’s trolling me. I’m seeing them for the first time this weekend and I think you know this.

James: Do top College pitchers get time to rest their arms? Seems like it is year round pitching with fall ball, summer Ball and then the season?
Keith Law: More college arms skip the summer than ever before. As much as I would like more chances to see them, this is the right call for the pitchers.

Craig: Do you think a “deader” ball would reduce the reliance on 3 True Outcomes baseball, mainly because it would quickly become inefficient for average/mediocre players?
Keith Law: Yes. That said, I don’t want a ball that leads to even more strikeouts. I just want a HR rate more in line with historical levels.

Jonathan: Is Shane Bieber the next James Shields, which is a good thing, or is there more there?
Keith Law: No, this is it. And it’s fine. Back end starter type because he’ll always be HR prone.

Kev: What is your % belief that Vargas actually has legit dirt/excuse for why he was being a gigantic asshole bully to the reporter last week?
Keith Law: Zero. And frankly, even if he does have it, just apologize in public and deal with this in private.

Jesse B: Keibert Ruiz has really struggled this year, obviously he’s still really young. Meanwhile, Will Smith is thriving in AAA, and done well in his cup of coffee. Is it safe to say that Will Smith will be the starting catcher for the Dodgers next year?
Keith Law: Yes but that doesn’t dim Ruiz’s potential, as he’s so much younger.

Jeries: Could Nick Madrigal play shortstop? Tim Anderson has been BAD this year
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Trey Anastasio: My take on the Red Sox future is that they would be wise to lock up Devers & Betts (Xander already signed)… and use Benintendi as a trade chip for a young SP. What you be on board fo that strategy?
Keith Law: Yes but it sounds like Mookie wants to go to free agency, no? Devers I’m sure they could lock up.

Alex: Hey Keith, I haven’t had the chance to write in since the Kumar Rocker 19 K start. I 100% agree that he was left in too long, especially seeing as he hasn’t received his baseball millions yet. Still, in the moment, that was the most fun random baseball game I have watched from beginning to end in ages. It’s kind of similar to knowing that home runs and fly balls above all is a better strategy than small ball and putting the ball in play. I don’t really have a question, except to bemoan that the more we learn, the less exciting baseball can be.
Keith Law: Sure, I don’t disagree. But I will say that this idea that Rocker did something he’ll remember forever is a bit much. Maybe in the moment it felt that way, but “threw a no-hitter in a college playoff super regional” is pretty niche. Great personal achievement but hardly worth pushing a kid’s arm too far.

Jon: Never hire off the interview. Is that for all jobs in your opinion or just baseball? If the former, why have interviews? Thanks.
Mat Ji: “Never hire off the interview. Hire off the CV, and maybe references, but never, ever hire off the interview.” Having sat through multiple pointless interviews with candidates this week, I am not sure I could agree more.
Keith Law: I feel like Mat just answered Jon a bit. Why have interviews? Aren’t they 90% eyewash? They likely often deter decision-makers from hiring the better employee because they hire the person they liked more (perhaps for subconscious reasons, perhaps even biased ones) or the person who was more animated or funnier or energetic.

Ben: This time next year Reilly Greene will be playing at ____ level?
Keith Law: Low A.

fish: christian pache will be an elite defender T/F? pache will be a league-average hitter at best T/F?
Keith Law: He is an elite defender. He will find his way to league average with power.

Sally: Why have you not be as hard on Dodgers Urias for domestic violence as you have on others? Such as Addison Russell
Keith Law: Charges were dropped and MLB declined to suspend him. Russell was suspended, so MLB found sufficient cause, and his ex-wife came forward with a very detailed account of the abuse.

Mike: What do teams do with players and prospects like franklin Perez and Roman Quinn who always seem to be hurt. Do you rush them and hope you can extract value until they are inevitably hurt again or try and move them to a team that thinks they can unlock the potential and cure their injury issues.
Keith Law: If you have the playing time to give them, you try to hold on to them and give them opportunities until you either have a better option or you need the 40-man spot.

romorr: I just figured since the Orioles are so far away from being good, that they would be conservative with him. You know, maybe 3 years down instead of 2. Was thinking he was bound for Delmarva from the start, so just trying to understand.
Keith Law: I would guess he starts next year in Frederick, moves quickly to Bowie, and is in position for a major-league callup by August. They may choose not to do so, as you said, because they’re not good, but in terms of his readiness, I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t blitz his way through the low minors to double-A.

Biff: What do you make of Alex Reyes’ inability to stay healthy?
Keith Law: I’ve always disliked his delivery. Maybe that’s why. Maybe it’s just bad luck.
Keith Law: I mean, maybe he can’t stay healthy because of his delivery, not because I don’t like the delivery. I’m not that powerful.

EG: Gerrymandering okay, says US Supreme Court. The 2016 Electron will haunt us for decades.
Keith Law: Yep. We got what we deserved.

Magoo: Hey Keith, huge board game nerd with a 9 month old here. Obviously still quite early for me, but good suggestions for beginner games, and what age would be good to start?
Keith Law: There are really good games aimed at kids 4+. Before then just play anything at all that they like – it’s the playing with them that matters, not the game.

Jofp gallagher: Do you believe the Lucas Giolito in the future will be more like this year’s Giolito or last year’s Giolito?
From worse to one of the best pitchers is a remarkable achievement so I wonder.
Keith Law: I’m in. Real changes to delivery and stuff.

Jason: Ceiling on Austin Riley?
Keith Law: Got to make more contact first.

Ridley: I’m always excited to see Elizabeth Warren speak. Is that legit, or is it just the novelty of potentially having a President who is willing to do the work to learn a subject and come up with an intelligent policy for it?

P.S. Regarding interviews: Never hire off an interview, but you can absolutely disqualify candidates based on ’em.
Keith Law: She’s my favored candidate right now, as she has real policy proposals with substance behind them, and everything she says seems well-considered. What a concept.
Keith Law: Gotta run – thanks for all your questions, as always. I’ll be back next week for one more pre-Futures Game chat. And come see me at the Hudson Library & Historical Society on July 8th in Hudson, Ohio. Thanks again!