Klawchat 9/12/19.

ESPN+ subscribers can read my Prospect of the Year column for 2019.

Keith Law: A war that must be won in the name of truth. Klawchat.

Lyle: How soon could the M’s run out an outfield of Lewis-Kelenic-Rodriguez? April 2021? Later?
Keith Law: Later, and while Lewis has had a nice debut, he hasn’t performed nearly well enough in the minors to pencil him in as their LF of the future.

addoeh: Have the Dodgers stumbled upon the Garden of Eternal Prospects? They called up a bunch the last few years (Smith, Lux, Buehler, etc) and it looks like there’s still plenty in the pipeline (Downs, Ruiz, etc).
Keith Law: I think they’ve drafted really well, have developed hitters particularly well (and used similar methods with castoffs like Muncy and Taylor), and then took advantage of the Reds this winter.

Sam: When can we expect any information about your second book?
Keith Law: I mentioned in this week’s newsletter that I will have information on it soon.

Moe Mentum: I know you’re a big FSF fan. And I just read O’Hara’s “Appointment in Samarra” based on your recommendation – thanks. Any other authors who might approach (but of course never match) Fitzgerald’s gift for storytelling and prose?
Keith Law: Specific books you might like: The Magnificent Ambersons, The Age of Innocence, The Awakening, and probably anything by Steinbeck.

Jim: North Carolina GOP, really?
Keith Law: Totally unsurprising.

Richard: Keith, in a chat of yours about a year ago, you said that Yoan Moncada is the kind of player who you think could have a lot of yearly fluctuation in terms of offensive production. He had a 97 wRC+ last year and has a 133 wRC+ this year. BABIP is high but quality of contact is elite. Is it reasonable to think that he puts up a bunch of seasons fluctuating between 110-135 wRC+ going forward, or do you think he’ll see significant regression/improvement?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on this year’s performance, at least. If you made that range more like 100-135 wRC+, I’d buy in.

Richard: Does JD Martinez opt out this year and if so, who signs him? Seems like his only serious suitors would be the Rangers, White Sox, and Blue Jays.
Keith Law: I don’t think so, because I don’t think the White Sox or Jays would bid on him at a level that would make opting out the right move.

JR: Pete Alonso is an easy guy to like, both as a player and human being. Donating part of the HR derby proceeds, engaging the fan base in a positive manner (i.e., not disparaging fans for not coming out but encouraging them to do so while coining an updated rallying cry – LFGM), and now defying MLB to an extent with the cleats to honor 9/11. Agreed?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Dr. Bob: Thanks for chatting, Keith. What is going to happen now in the NL Central? Cards win it? 2nd WC to ???
Keith Law: Fangraphs has STL at 76% to win the division; I won’t disagree. I still think the Cubs limp into the second WC spot.

Dave: Do you think Hoerner starts the season for the cubs at 2b and leading off in 2020.
Keith Law: No. He wouldn’t be up if they hadn’t had injuries that forced their hand; nice player but nothing in his 2019 line says he’s ready to be an average regular.

Chris: Keith, I have to ask the obligatory question: What should the Red Sox do now?
Keith Law: What they usually do: Rebuild without ceding major-league wins. They’ve done it before.

Craig: Campusano seems a little slept on. Do you like him?
Keith Law: Disagree that he’s “slept on.” High draft pick, well known within the industry. He’s very good.

Jerod: Thoughts on Trent Grisham so far and how do you see him going forward?
Keith Law: I’m buying. He was very much in that “guy you thought would hit but were wrong about” category for me till this year.

Appa Yip Yip: A lot of times you get people trying to play “gotcha” on you with players you’re not particularly high on based on small samples. I was just wondering how long you yourself need to see sustained big league success (like, 2 WAR season) before you shrug your shoulders and go, huh, guess I was wrong about that guy. Good for him.
Keith Law: I’d really like to see more than a full year for that. I don’t always have that luxury of time, but we’ve seen so many players have fluke years that it’s too easy to say “welp, I was wrong,” only to have the pendulum go right back the other way a year later.

JR: Can you work your bias magic against the various NL teams to ensure we get a five way tie for the second wild card? TIA
Keith Law: Jay Jaffe coined #TeamEntropy and I am a charter member.

Jeff: Time to move Posey to 1B on a full-time basis, trade Belt and ride Vogt for a year and hope Bart is ready in 2021?
Keith Law: If you think Belt has enough trade value, yes.

Craig: You into guitar pedals?
Keith Law: I only have two, a regular distortion pedal and a “full bore metal” one I got on sale because, fuck yeah, metal.

Bryan (Montclair): Do you think that J.D. Davis’ bat is for real, or was that just a ridiculous August?
Keith Law: I’m inclined to the latter.

Eric: North Carolina is the Florida of Ohios.
Keith Law: That works, especially with the whole “several big cities ruled by a gerrymandered GOP legislature” comparison.

David: Do you think the Henry et. al. were unsatisfied with Trader Dave emptying the farm system? Flags fly forever, but man, one year later, and it’s a disaster there.
Keith Law: It’s gotten a lot weaker, but I don’t think it’s a disaster, and some of this stuff (Groome blowing out, Flores passing away) isn’t anyone’s fault.
Keith Law: I think that was a factor. I can’t believe that would be THE factor.

Chris: Do you like Tool? Listen to the new album?
Keith Law: Not a fan, sorry.

Jerod: Last year the Brewers got within one game of the WS with an average run differential. This year they are negative and near the second wild card. Is this just noise or are they doing something different than other teams?
Keith Law: Some luck but also generally great bullpens.

Ben: With Yelich out, who’s your favorite for MVP – or is it still him?
Keith Law: It was never him, FTR. Bellinger has had the edge over him all year.

Luke: This is probably a dumb question, but why does the minor league season end with a month left of major league games?
Keith Law: Aside from this is how we’ve always done it? I think so teams could recall players for September.

Andrew: Thoughts on Blue Jays C prospect Alejandro Kirk? Posted a 153 wRC+ in high A this year.
Keith Law: I’m not sure how long he catches, given his body, but he can hit.

Zac: Do the Tigers have a hitting prospect that you are excited to watch or is it only pitching?
Keith Law: Riley Greene for sure. Paredes can hit, but I’m not sure where he plays and he has no projection at all. Hill can really run and defend but the bat has never progressed.

TK: I feel things like “clubhouse culture” are a bit overstated, but the Pirates must have serious problems in theirs. Three separate incidents (including a fight that has now caused a pitcher to miss the rest of the season) with their bullpen? Something has got to change there, no?
Keith Law: At some point, the manager has to take the fall, if only for failing to prevent such incidents.

Andres: 5 more good-to-great seasons, is Jacob deGrom a future HOFer? Despite the low counting stats.
Keith Law: No, that’s not close to enough. The bar is really high for modern starters and what you’re talking about probably leaves him short of 60 WAR>

Cole: It’s probably too early for this but who do you see as the major players for Gerrit Cole this offseason?
Keith Law: Any contender should be interested, but I assume the Yankees and Angels will both be bidders and could blow anyone else out of the water. They both have the resources and the critical need for him.

Jeb: Thoughts on O’Neil Cruz? Could he be a top 20-25 prospect by mid-season next year?
Keith Law: Way too optimistic.

Dan: How does Mickey Callaway still have a job? Dude constantly seems overwhelmed.
Keith Law: I would guess he’s the manager most likely to be fired by October, followed by Hurdle and perhaps Kapler. (That’s not my opinion on who should be fired.)

Jordan: I know it’s only 42 games in rookie ball, but it feels like Francisco Alvarez really has a chance to be something for the Mets. A 17-year-old catcher with that kind of pop in his bat is fun to see. Think he should start next year in Columbia?
Keith Law: I would probably start him in extended … after seeing the Phillies push Luis Garcia from the GCL to low-A, only to have him flop, I’m a little loath to suggest other 18-year-olds make that leap. Franco was an obvious exception, but I don’t know if Alvarez is ready – and 35 games in the Appy, while better than the GCL, don’t tell us a ton.

Ian: Would you agree that you enjoy being wrong about players? I always laugh when people get mad at you like you’re some kind of prospect magician.
Keith Law: Yes, if I were always right, this job would be boring. I get frustrated or even upset when I’m wrong for specific reasons – e.g., I didn’t listen to the opinion of someone I trusted, I didn’t see a player (at all, or just enough) and thus missed key information. But you can’t do this job unless you embrace being wrong.

Aaron: How many states would you refuse to live in based on politics?
Keith Law: Woof, probably 15-20 right now.

Guest: Matt Olson has been among 1b leaders since 2016 in drs/uzr/uzr150. When he was a prospect even the most optimistic outlets projected him as an average defensive 1b. Where do you think the disconnect between drs/uzr and the scouting community comes from?
Keith Law: I don’t think UZR/DRS do a very good job measuring 1b defense.

danny: I think you mentioned recently having The Nightingale on your list of movies to see. It’s fairly long, quite grim, with multiple rapes and killings along the way. I wouldn’t say it’s a bad movie overall, but really grim.
Keith Law: Yeah, a few readers have suggested it, but given how many other films I’d like to see + the fact that it’s not really new (it came out in 2018 in Australia, I believe), it’s lower priority.

Sean: Is Miguel Vargas a top 100 guy for you next year?
Keith Law: Possibly.

Mike: As a fellow liberal, how do we reconcile support for affirmative action and unions with the fact that Angel Hernandez and Laz Diaz have jobs?
Keith Law: I don’t see the disconnect. You’re conflating a macro issue with individual examples.

Pat D: I know he was an older rookie and not really that good a player, but what do you make of Daniel Palka’s season? Can he replace Kevin Maas in the baseball lexicon?
Keith Law: I think he can be a solid bench player.

Sean: Who has a higher ceiling between Matthew Allan and Manoah?
Keith Law: Allan. But much further from his ceiling than Manoah is.

Stu (UK): Cheers, Keith! My mates and I are big into baseball and have adopted the White Sox (don’t ask) – Will Luis Robert be great, or merely very good?
Keith Law: Either one of those outcomes is possible. It will depend on how he handles ML pitchers who have better stuff and can locate it more – I’ve spoken a few times about his issues with velocity inside.

Mike: Do you attend many music concerts (live)? Or do the ridiculously high prices of most concerts turn you off?
Keith Law: Saw Phish twice in June, tickets for another show in October, couple of others I might hit this fall depending on my own schedule. I can’t imagine going to a big stadium show but seeing a show in one of the many clubs around Philly isn’t very expensive.

Darin: Which would you rather see in person?

Immaculate inning

Unassisted triple play
Keith Law: I don’t even notice the whole “immaculate inning” thing.

Derek: Miguel Yajure another pop up Yankees prospect with starter upside?
Keith Law: Yes.

Johnny: It sounds like the Jays are not going to do much this off-season since they’ve repeatedly said they’ll spend when the team starts winning. What do you think they should do this off-season, and how far away are they, really?
Keith Law: There’s a small issue with that in that they may not start winning (enough) until they spend more money.

Jason: What’re your thoughts on Mike Tauchman? Can he be a reliable starter or 4th OF type?
Keith Law: Someone else asked how I ranked the Yanks’ three reclamation projects this year by confidence they’ll sustain their gains and I feel like Tauchman is third of the three, with Voit first and Urshuela second.

Zach: Mitch Garver has 30hrs in <300 PA. That’s Just Ridiculous.
Keith Law: Nice player, but come on. The Happy Fun Ball has screwed up everyone’s stat lines.

Steve: long term outlook on Austin Riley? He got hurt, but slumped badly both before and after. Should the braves attempt to resign Donaldson?
Keith Law: Not sure I buy Riley ever being a regular. Bat speed has always been questionable and we saw in the majors how that led to unworkable BB and K rates.

Marc: Julio Pablo Martinez looked like he started to turn things around the second half of the season. Any chance this turnaround is for real and he turns into the player the Rangers hoped?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he has the tools to be more than an extra OF. He’s really small. ++ run, maybe there’s a leadoff type (OBP and speed) if he’s strong enough to get to it.

mike sixel: Would you call up Kiriloff at this point? thanks<
Keith Law: Probably not.

Alex: Who should I be listening to if I liked Botanist’s Shape of He to Come? Also — over the next 10 years, what’s the over/under on additional Soroka All-Star appearances? Two?
Keith Law: I’m not sure who to compare to the Botanist … I’m not particularly a fan of black metal in general or that sort of largely non-melodic extreme metal in particular. Insomnium and Alcest both had new recent tracks I liked that had some death-metal vocals but also far more interesting music. If you put the O/U at 2.5 I’d probably take the under.

Pat D: Considering all the time he dedicates to it, would you consider yourself a bona fide celebrity if Trump started picking a fight with you on Twitter?
Keith Law: Not sure if that would be worth the aggravation.

Santos: Overall Kingery looks really good this year. Good defense, versatility, speed, decent power, etc. But his OBP is low. What’s your outlook on his on base skills going forward?
Keith Law: He’s never been a high OBP guy but I think he can hit for average and bring his K rate down over time. I still think he’s a ++ defender at second. Maybe after this year they turn the position over to him.

Sean: What is Ketel Marte’s “real” talent level at this point? Can he be an annual 5+ WAR player for the next few years? If this year is a mirage, what will change?
Keith Law: I think he’s a legitimately good hitter, although the .342 BABIP and the HR rate both feel like functions of the Happy Fun Ball … but if you told me he averaged 4 WAR over the next five years, with maybe 20 HR/year and a .320 BABIP, I’d buy it.

Jerry: Do either of Urquidy or Tucker have a chance to make the ALDS roster? How much of an impact can Toro make or is he just a guy?
Keith Law: Toro’s the least valuable of the three for the playoffs, I think. I’d try to get the other two on the roster.

BigDaddeh: Do you think McCleod has a good job scouting for the Cubs or is this a case of letting a guy do something different?
Keith Law: I assume the latter. Maybe getting him off the road so much. The travel of amateur scouting in particular really wears guys out. I couldn’t do it.

Pat D: Building off the refusal to live in a certain state question, would population size be a factor? Like is North Dakota more preferable to North Carolina because there’s less people to deal with?
Keith Law: North Carolina has both Raleigh and Durham, sizable urban centers with progressive populations, diversity, and the kinds of services I want in my community. I’d take that over an entirely rural red state like ND.

Bruce: Will Smith is off to a great start as a hitter – is his power for real? How does he rate defensively?
Keith Law: Power was there last year too and I wrote on my offseason top 100 that it was legit.

Rob: i know you like Elizabeth Warren. Any other D candidates that you hold in high regard?
Keith Law: Of the likeliest candidates, it’s her or Harris for me. Maybe Booker. I’m way out on Biden or Bernie.

Chewy Rich: Are you high on Jose Devers?
Keith Law: Not really.

Matt M: Best chance to become a 1 or 2 in a big league rotation: Spencer Howard or Luis Patino?
Keith Law: Patino has #1 upside; Howard doesn’t. Howard could pitch in a MLB rotation next year; I don’t think Patino could.

Jesse: Does Rendon make sense for the White Sox or should they be focusing more on wheeler or Hamels ?
Keith Law: Pitching.

Yan: Thoughts on Phillies pitcher Francisco Morales? Do you think he can be developed into a front of the rotation arm to pair with Nola/Howard?
Keith Law: Reliever all the way.

Matt M: When do you see Oneill Cruz debuting with the Pirates, 2020? Is he the SS of the future?
Keith Law: There is a 0% chance he’s a MLB shortstop for me.

Boris: Is the hate against the new ball old man “get off my lawn” nonsense because baseball is different than when i was a kid or are there legit reasons to be mad about it?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s “get off my lawn” nonsense when homers are up 22% from one year to the next. That’s a vastly different game.

Matt the Brewer Fan: Does Trent Grisham have enough arm to be a right fielder, so Yelich can move back to left next year? Is Grisham a .350 OBP guy, long term? Love your stuff …
Keith Law: I’d try Grisham in RF – yes on the OBP, I am really not certain about his arm.

Todd Boss: So, if Rendon walks and Strasburg opts out, the Nats are in serious trouble no? Either that or they commit $60M/annually for both guys on the wrong side of 30. WWKLD?
Keith Law: I think they could survive Strasburg leaving but without Rendon they don’t have a viable second option.

Pat D: Ever watch The Dark Crystal or have any interest in the Netflix show? Gotta admire that they kept it “low tech” and it looks phenomenal.
Keith Law: Loved the movie as a kid. Will watch the show this offseason.

Mike: Which prospect do you think the Reds will regret giving up most? Don’t know what to make of Trammell right now, but Gray seems special.
Keith Law: And Downs. It’s not really been a banner year for them, trading three of their top ten (maybe top five?) prospects, plus losing Greene to TJ.

Scott: If James Kapriellian stays healthy (big IF), is it reasonable to expect him to push for a rotation spot in Oakland next spring? It sounds like his velocity is almost all the way back finally.
Keith Law: I just don’t know if you can count on him to handle a starter’s workload in 2020, if ever. Loved him prior to the injuries but he has 97 professional innings over 4 full seasons plus one summer since he was drafted.

Dr. Bob: Riffing off of you Blue Jays take, both the Astros and Cubs–the two most successful tanking operations–stopped spending money and concentrated on acquiring young talent. Then when the talent was ready, they opened the pocketbooks for FAs. Right? The problem for other tanking teams (hello, Detroit) is that they don’t seem to be very good at building the farm system and getting the young talent.
Keith Law: Right, that works better if you draft in the top 5 a few times, nail many of those picks, and are aggressive at spending a bit before it seems like you’ll need to.

Joe: While it seems like the Orioles’ pitching prospects took a collective step forward this year, is it fair to say that the hitters took a step back? Feels like none of Hays, Diaz, Mountcastle, McKenna improved.
Keith Law: I would agree with all four of those assessments. Adam Hall took a step forward.

Yinka Double Dare: Every time I see Mitch Garver’s name I think of “Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute” from SNL – is it just me?
Keith Law: Well, not any more.

Brodie Van Wagenen: Should I be a believer in Amed Rosario for the long term? Over Giminez?
Keith Law: Yes and yes.

Jason: You are the new Red Sox GM. What are you doing with Mookie Betts?
Keith Law: Throwing large piles of money at him.

Tom C: Was listening to a podcast the other day and the usual “how can Trout be MVP, the Angels could be way under .500 even without him, it’s only cause of WAR, but wow the Yankees wouldn’t be where they are without LeMahieu.” Do people not realize that by their own logic there that NYY would still be in first place without LeMahieu?
Keith Law: No, they don’t, because they are not using logic.

Nicole: Will Gore pitch for the Padres next year?
Keith Law: Yes, probably midyear/later but yes.

Peter Hook: Do GM’s ever take into consideration a player’s popularity among fans when deciding whether to re-sign a free agent? Or is it strictly performace and cost?
Keith Law: Owners probably do, but good GMs should never consider that.

Mike: I know you don’t like the sac bunt, but do you want a hitter going to the right side with a runner on 2nd & no outs or would you want him to just focus on a hit?
Keith Law: Just try to hit the ball hard. Especially with the Happy Fun Ball.

Eric: Just a reminder that someone screamed at you incessantly that Ryan Howard was the preeminent power hitter of his time and his contract extension was a good idea.
Keith Law: And that someone is, last I checked, still employed to scream at people.

Boris: Does Elizabeth Warren’s stance on nuclear power concern you at all?
Keith Law: I disagree with her – nuclear power is pretty safe and doesn’t contribute at all to climate change – but 1) no candidate is going to match all of my views and 2) she’s shown herself to be fairly pro-science and may change her mind.

Joseph: Has Jordyn Adams impressed you this year? Just held his own?
Keith Law: Scouting reports were not favorable. He came into pro ball with less experience than most HS hitters, and the low K rate/total are promising.

Anthony: Do you think Willie Calhoun will hit enough to be an above average regular in the OF?
Keith Law: No, if we’re considering the value he’ll give back on defense.

Dave: You should look into adding chorus and delay pedals into your setup. Both add so much to guitar playing
Keith Law: It’s just me around the house, though. If I were playing with a band or even with friends, sure, but I’m just a hobbyist.

Preston: Assuming Soroka, Fried, Teheran & Folty are locks for starting rotation spots, who is the fifth starter for the Braves next season? Or instead of one guy, mix and match Anderson, Wright & Wilson?
Keith Law: Teheran has one year left on his deal and a 4.29 FIP this year. Folty can’t be counted on as a lock for 30 starts; neither can Soroka. I think they need to think more flexibly about their rotation for 2020 than assuming those four guys are locked in and the guys you mentioned + Touki are fighting for one spot.

Sean: What is the best case for Puk next year? ~20 starts and finishing the year as a power bullpen arm around 130-150 total innings?
Keith Law: Sure. Maybe on the lower end by innings, but it’ll depend on how he holds up.

Buddy: Do you follow the NFL? If so, did you see that OBJ wore a $300,000 watch during a game?
Keith Law: I did see that but I don’t understand why it was a big deal. If anything, shouldn’t he be concerned about breaking it?

Ben: Do you have a favorite one-player game?
Keith Law: I think Coffee Roaster is the best I’ve tried, with Friday a close second and definitely easier to learn.

Mike: I’m a pro-science guy, but I have to admit I’m really not a nuclear power fan. Yes, there are benefits to it, but that downside….I know, it’s very unlikely to happen. But I view nuclear power plants like idiots who ride motorcycles without helmets. Odds are nothing bad will happen, but when it does, oh boy!
Keith Law: We could start by, say, not building nuclear power plants on or near fault lines or on coasts that might be hit by tsunamis. The history of nuclear plant disasters is that of bad decisions, not really problems with nuclear power per se.

Jim P (TN): Do you think the success of BVW will lead to other clubs adopting the Mets model?
Keith Law: (spits out coffee)

Brent: Do you own an electric guitar as well?
Keith Law: Yep, a strat I’ve had for probably 20 years.

Josh: You watch (or watching) The Magicians show? My wife and I enjoyed the books, but the show seems much…lighter?
Keith Law: It’s on my “maybe some day” list. Loved the books.

Sean: Has Happy Fun Ball helped certain hitters more than others?
Keith Law: Of course it has, but I don’t think we really know who it’s helped more/most and won’t until the ball changes back – and it will. I don’t know what the baseball will be like in 2020, but I feel confident it won’t be the same as it was in 2019.

Joey: Hi Keith. As a recent divorcee who’s daughter has really taken to my new sig other, congrats. Moving on is always hard and having a child makes it scarier. But I’m glad you and your daughter nailed the landing.
Keith Law: Thank you. My daughter has really made me proud with how well she’s handled everything and how much maturity she’s shown in a situation where it would be perfectly fair and understandable for her to act like a kid, which she still is.

Sean: For anyone that thinks that the “downside” of nuclear power (catastrophic failure) makes it far worse than the benefits it provides, just retort with airplanes. Modern engineering is so ridiculously rigorous and robust that failures at a nuclear power plant require some sort of human-induced flaw and multiple steps before anything catastrophic happens.
Keith Law: Good points. Also, the downside of fossil fuels is a lot worse than the downside of nuclear power plants, and the former happens merely by using those fuels, whereas the latter only happens when there’s an actual disaster. (Availability bias!)

Joey: Luis Urías deserves at least another yr or 2 right? I get the Padres want to move to contention, but trying to rush development on a 22 yr seems like a sure fire way to sabotage a rebuild
Keith Law: For sure.

Jason: Is this the real Jorge Soler?
Keith Law: I think so, allowing that the Happy Fun Ball may be helping too.

Will: What should the Reds do with Gausman this off season? He’ll likely command $10MM+ in arbitration.
Keith Law: I’d give him that chance. The upside is there, and while the odds keep slipping … if that clicks, you get way more than $10 million in value.

Dr. Bob: If you get any more pedals, then you’ll need a pedal board to mount them on, add a tuner, maybe a volume pedal, then a better amp, and soon you’ll be haunting Craigslist looking for a deal on a Les Paul. It grows.
Keith Law: Yeah I love the hobby but I’m not looking for ways to spend more money or even acquire more stuff.

Matt M: Does Alek Thomas make it to big leagues sometime in 2020? Is he the future Dbax table setting lead off hitter?
Keith Law: He’s 19 and played just 23 games above low-A. That does not put any player on a timetable to see the majors a year later.

Jordan: Shane Baz started off early in the year with good BB/9 but it progressively got worse as the year went on. Control/command has always been the question about him. And while his BB/9 was manageable, I saw a lot of publications instantly move him up into their top 100. But I don’t think he is there yet.
Keith Law: Whether he’s on a top 100 – he was on mine – is not a function of his BB/9 (use BB% instead, by the way), but of his stuff, delivery, and projection.

Oscar: To play devils advocate on the nuclear power discussion, you say “the history of nuclear plant disasters is that of bad decisions.” But bad decisions ARE going to happen, inevitably, so don’t we want the results of those bad decisions to, I dunno, not kill us all?
Keith Law: The results of fossil fuel usage will kill us all.

Brodie Van Wagenen: Do I resign Wheeler? At what price? Seems like he’ll get $15-$20m or likely more a year for multiple years from someone, but I don’t think I can replace what he’s done— and in NY…
Keith Law: Make the QO, maybe offer 2-3 years, but my guess is someone outbids the Wilpons.

Raul: Manuel Margot since July 1
Keith Law: .254/.347/.486. Not quite the player I envisioned: I would have guessed more AVG/OBP and less power. He doesn’t strike out much at all, which is one reason I haven’t given up on him.

Guest: At some point does MLB have to realize that broadcasting playoffs games on FS1–with its relatively limited availability (especially in hotels)–is detrimental to expanding the game’s profile?
Keith Law: Well, that would mean MLB taking less money in the short term to grow the game in the long term, and the entire history of the league dating back to the 19th century says they won’t do that.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions. I should be back as usual for a chat next Thursday and a Periscope either Tuesday or Wednesday. Book details soon … just not quite yet. Thanks again!

Comments

  1. Any chance Andrew Yang makes noise in dem race? Is he anyone that you can relate to?

  2. What is the projection for the Cardinal prospect Dylan Carlson?

  3. Dakota Hudson – breakout year or an anomaly?

  4. Jamie Cureau

    Keith,

    I am pleasantly surprised you are ok with the Alonso 9/11 cleats. I thought you supported minimizing 9/11 when you liked/defended Rep. Omar’s “some people” comments.

    Jamie

  5. I suspect Warren’s positions on both nuclear power and the wealth tax is pandering to the progressive wing, but I disagree with both, particularly the former. For now, I’ll look elsewhere for my candidate among the Democrats unless I see greater clarification related to the wealth tax and significant movement from her related to nuclear.

    I have a fairly negative view on both parties when it comes to climate change and fossil fuels. This dates all the way back to Al Gore’s ‘An Inconvenient Truth.’ My fear at that time is it would politicize something that should be worked on at the highest levels, and not be used to split votes along party lines with the voting public. My fear, sadly, was founded. Republicans, pandering to a segment of their base, embrace climate-change denial, sometimes overtly, other times subtly; Democrats are very supportive, but are often anti-nuclear and the reforms they support are generally non-binding and seem to be designed to claim moral victory as opposed to driving real change. Climate change has become more of an issue about driving votes within political parties as opposed to leading to actionable results.

    Sorry, no question, just a rant.

    • Your’re entirely wrong about Warren pandering on progressive economic issues.

      I suspect her of pandering a little on *social* issues – everybody please stop talking about reparations – but the reason I support her is because she is the best choice (because I suspect she would be more effective than Sanders) for returning the Democrats to being a party of the working class.

      If you don’t have time to read her book, The Two-Income Trap (2004), then just read this:
      https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/12/warren-obama-2020-228068 … I still think Obama administration going soft on Wall Street – inevitable with Geithner and Summers around – is a major reason Trump is in office now.

      Or maybe this, about her rough history with Biden over the bankruptcy bill, which is a microcosm of the rift in the Democratic party: https://www.wbur.org/news/2019/05/21/warren-biden-bankruptcy-bill-democrats

      Curious if there will be fireworks tonight.

      Hope you don’t mind my own rant.

  6. In addition to the other bad aspects of Yang’s UBI scheme, he somehow devised a plan that would benefit billionaires (who’d get the full $1k per month) more than the poorest Americans (who wouldn’t get the full amount unless they’re willing to give up other benefits). It seems like a tidy way to roll the social safety net into a ball so that it can be conveniently thrown into a fire at a later date.

    • It also seems to throw in the towel on full time low-wage workers getting paid a living wage for their work, and would provide political cover for yet more wholesale automation and offshoring of labor.

  7. It sounds like Keith is taunting happy fun ball. Big Mistake. The manufacturer *specifically* warns us, “Do NOT taunt Happy Fun Ball.” Also, it warns that, “Happy Fun Ball may suddenly accelerate to dangerous speeds” and “If Happy Fun Ball begins to smoke, seek shelter and cover head.”

    Happy Fun Ball warned us of what to expect.

  8. @Dave, I don’t mind your follow-on rant at all, although I suspect that question was directed at Klaw! I don’t have an issue with a progressive tax rate, we have one, so it’s a question of percentages, although I do have some significant issues with the implementation of a wealth tax.

    I do agree that Warren would be more effective than Sanders, who I believe offers the potential to be worse than the current president, ultimately creating an ever greater divide in our country, and another lost four years. His election would likely result in mass losses to democrats in the House and Senate in subsequent elections, and probably the loss of the presidency four years on.

    Beyond on that, hey, how ’bout those (insert name of favorite team).

  9. Still legal in 16 states.

  10. I think a big reason (although not the only reason) the minor league season ends at Labor Day is that attendance drops off dramatically when the kids go back to school. The minor league affiliates may not pay the players (of course, neither do the MLB teams) but the costs of continuing to run games with small crowds probably gives them little incentive to keep things going after Labor Day. They run all kinds of discount tickets just to get people to come to playoff games.

  11. Keith, what’s your primary objection to Sanders?

    • He’s a moron who’s never held a job, was so lazy he get expelled from a hippie commune, and has nothing to show for his time in the Senate. Other than that, he’s got my vote/

    • Pretty arrogant to think I’d be interested in your opinion when I have no idea who you are.

    • None of that was opinion. Cheers.