For The Athletic subscribers, I wrote about the Starling Marte trade, and looked at the Reds’ moves and chances of contention for 2020. Over at Paste, I reviewed Hadara, a 7 Wonders-like civ-builder with card-drafting and lots of simultaneous actions for fast play.

Keith Law: Wait in silence while planning your attack. Klawchat.

Bruce: Sam Hilliard played well last year though it was a small sample size. I was impressed the way he hung in there against Hader in a late season game and took him deep the other way. Does he have the chance to be a solid regular or maybe more?
Keith Law: Definitely has the tools to be no worse than a solid regular, but I do think the swing and miss, esp on breaking stuff, will be an issue in him getting there.

Bryan: Over/Unders on Oscar Mercado this season. 345 OBP, 18 HR, 26 SB.
Keith Law: I’m a big Mercado fan but I would go under, over, under, although HR totals for 2020 are impossible to predict until we see what the ball is like.

Justin: Know you’ve been a fan in the past, are we beyond the point of Gregory Polanco being productive? Would a good half-season net some trade value at the deadline for PIT?
Keith Law: Let’s see if him getting fully healthy this year gets him back on track.

Laurel: Does Jon Gray need a new home?
Keith Law: I think he would benefit from one, but “need” is too strong.

addoeh: Did you compare Skyline Chili to Olive Garden or something?  Reds fans have their torches and pitchforks out because you offered a measured opinion on their offseason.
Keith Law: It was kind of embarrassing to see how those fans conducted themselves over a piece that I don’t think was harsh at all. I got a similar reaction 13 months ago when I said the Wood/Puig deal was awful.

Mike: Can Justus Sheffield still turn into a mid-rotation piece? What are your expectations for him this season?
Keith Law: If his velocity is back to at least the low 90s, touching 94-95, in spring training, I’d say yes.

Paul: With spring training a little over a week away, how does not having a manager impact the Red Sox? How big a role does the manager play in developing the ST plans and practice schedule?
Keith Law: Not a big issue yet. I don’t think it matters at all till the games start.

Andy: Would Verdugo, Ruiz, and a couple non top 100 prospects get Betts? I’d rather the Dodgers hold on to Gonsolin for a 1 year rental.
Keith Law: No. You’re trying to trade the prospects you don’t like as much, instead of looking at it from Boston’s perspective, where they are fielding offers from other clubs too.

Jon: When is the correct time to trade Josh Bell? Boras guy, they’re obviously not going to re-sign him. With the DH coming to the NL, does it make sense to hold him until next offseason when more teams could have a use for him? Does he fetch two top-100 guys?
Keith Law: Still three years to FA, right? So I’d say there isn’t any urgency yet. See when the market emerges – 1b/dh types haven’t been valued that highly recently so they really need a contender with prospects to have a sudden need at that position.

Seth: Excited for Jesus Sanchez this season? Does the change in development team positively or negatively impact his future?
Keith Law: Neither.

Nick: Lost season for Urias already with the hamate surgery? He’ll certainly be able to play after his recovery but won’t that sap any true power reads until ’21?
Keith Law: Power was the least important aspect of his game, so as long as he plays, I don’t think so.

Andy: In the Betts to LA scenarios, I see people putting Bellinger in CF. Who do you think is a better CF, Betts or Bellinger?
Keith Law: Bellinger.

Arnold: Hey Keith, what are your thoughts on the Bryant grievance ruling? Seemed like a foregone conclusion since the rules were set up in a way teams could exploit it. Can the union do something in the next negotiation to address the issue and does the Cubs handling of the situation increase the odds of Bryant leaving in free agency and/or the Cubs trading him before them figuring Bryant won’t come back voluntarily?
Keith Law: I agree it was a foregone conclusion. It’s a hard issue to regulate, because proving service time manipulation is hard (even though we all see it), and if you try to move the thresholds teams will just alter how they manipulate the time. My suggestion at the time they did this to KB was to allow for a one-year right of first refusal option when a player was at 6.000 on the dot, so that at least teams would lose some disincentive to call up players to debut on Opening Day. That doesn’t solve the problem, but I think it’s a bit more fair to players, and gets the Kris Bryants of the world into the majors two weeks sooner.

Bruce: Will Dustin May be in the Dodgers rotation by the All Star break?
Keith Law: He’ll be on the staff by then.

Leo: Adam Frazier’s name popped up a lot as a possible trade candidate during the Winter Meetings. Was there any substance to that and should he return some value? Maybe a handful of 10-20 guys in an org?
Keith Law: No idea about substance but sure, a non-top ten prospect or two would make sense.

Kevin: Planning on watching the Super Bowl this weekend? It’s more of a social activity than a football game anyway. Anything interesting on the menu??
Keith Law: Probably not; we might go see a movie instead.

Jon: Keith, why do so many people in chats, both in yours and others around the web, suggest ridiculous one-sided trade proposals? And why respond to them?
Keith Law: My guess: most of these people don’t think their proposals are ridiculous. It’s not easy to value players when you don’t work inside the sport, and they are basing their opinions off the opinions of others (who may, in turn, be basing their opinions on those of others).
Keith Law: I respond to a tiny fraction of the proposals that come my way.

Luke: Matt Carpenter going to return to relevancy this season? Not sure what went wrong with him.
Keith Law: He got old. Time is a motherfucker.

Adam: I’m asking this specifically about Jasson Dominguez, but it applies to any prospect his age. How do teams balance focusing on his development as a player — i.e., better technique in the outfield — with cultural and general maturity that also has to go on at that age? It seems like an enormous task that would require a lot of cash and effort.
Keith Law: It is an enormous task and not every team does it well. Some teams prefer to target players who might be more mature, or speak English already, or have more education. Some have more extensive development programs for such players, and are doing things like building dorms at their spring training sites (e.g., Cleveland) to give players housing and feed them and just generally keep an eye on them.

dan: Do you see any common factors in prospects that in prior years you have projected highly who haven’t succeeded or in prospects you’ve rated fairly low who do well?  Is there a type of player, position, age, organization or the like which is a factor on missing either high or low?
Keith Law: If I notice any sort of bias like that in my evaluations, I change my process. Otherwise I’ll just keep making the same mistakes.

Nick: If/when O’neil Cruz moves off shortstop, can he make it work in center?
Keith Law: Right field is the floor. I’d try him at third first.

Gunther Centralperk: I asked the Kershaw/CH question (in a poorly-worded way) in last week’s chat. He’s been quoted as saying it’s “tough” for him to throw one and he “doesn’t have very big hands.” You said there were no mechanical issues, so it’s just a feel thing for him then? I’m trying to understand why a CH would/could be tough for him when he so quickly developed an excellent SL in 2010.
Keith Law: Maybe he has never found a grip that works? You do need to hold the ball in one of a few ways to make a changeup effective.

Mark: A report in the SD paper said the Pads / Sox have discussed either Lucchesi or Quantrill and either Neylor or Margot, plus Myers and a top prospect (but not in their top 5) for Betts. Assuming that’s accurate, what prospect would consider including – Baez? Morejon?
Keith Law: I’d include either of those in a deal for Betts. I’ve heard from multiple teams that their internal defensive metrics rate Margot very highly in center.

Steve: What do you know about Luis Rojas? Right hire by the Mets?
Keith Law: Great hire. Lot of managing experience, loved by players, data savvy, works well with R&D folks. They accidentally got it right.

Brian B: Hi Keith.  Thanks for moving to a platform where this Canadian can read your work.  I’m curious whether Outs Above Average has changed your outlook on any players?  As a Blue Jays fan, I was unsurprised by the Vlad Jr. (last place) ranking, but pleasantly surprised by Bo (maybe can stay at short?) and Biggio (not your favourite, I know, but perhaps there is something there?)
Keith Law: I like it a lot for outfielders. For infielders it’s incomplete, per comments from Mike Petriello, so I’m not using it.

Mark: Think Kris Bryant gets moved soon, now that his grievance has been decided?
Keith Law: The last I’d heard the Cubs hadn’t discussed him much with anyone, so I would still guess no.

Ben: Any favorite places to eat in Nashville? I’ve never been but may have a few days there soon.
Keith Law: Tons. Tremendous food city. Search this site for nashville (search bar up top) and you’ll find my posts.

Scott U: With the Astros hiring of Dusty Baker, how will that affect the development and 2020 playing time of the team’s up and coming young players like Kyle Tucker, Forrest Whitley, Jose Urquidy et al?
Keith Law: I don’t think it will. One, Baker was better at handling pitchers at each stop after the Cubs. Two, they’re going to need those players you mentioned to play and do well to win, so I am not worried that he might choose not to play a player who’s helpful – I’m not sure why he’d even do that at this point – because they don’t have great alternatives available.

Jim : How screwed is our republic if the Republicans vote no on witnesses? Corruption floodgates open wide, right?
Keith Law: You have to hope enough voters see this for what it is – and the media reports it accurately – that something changes in November. Otherwise, yes, we’re likely to see corruption expand to unprecedented levels.

Ian: Do people realize that saying that it is too soon to talk about Kobe’s rape case in the context of his legacy is the same thing as people (conservatives?) saying it is too soon to talk about gun control after a school shooting?
Keith Law: They don’t realize it. And now is exactly the time to talk about Kobe’s history, including the rape accusation and public treatment (including by the media) of his accuser. There is no  such thing as a “former rapist.”

Jason: Keith, are you troubled by the actions at the Washington Post in suspending their reporter for posting a link to an article (but now backtracking) and their reasons for suspending her especially with hundreds of reporters there supporting her and now with what has come to light about how in 2008, they were basically fawning over Kobe and divided the newsroom then?
Keith Law: Yes, and I contacted one of the editors involved in the decision to voice my support for Sonmez. They reversed the suspension, but it speaks to a poor process that catered to sentiment rather than reason.

Debra: Is George Valera a possible top 100 candidate or do we need another year of actual production at the plate before that happens?
Keith Law: Eventually, yes, he has that kind of upside.

Marcus: I have really hit it off with a person we hired for our company, but technically I am a superior on the chain of command. Others have remarked to me that they can tell this person likes me and I like this person for sure, but last thing I want is to make her feel uncomfortable if that is not the case. How do I go about things? Wait for her to say something to me or be honest about it?
Keith Law: I’d ask a lawyer – or HR – but boy does that sound like a terrible idea to me.

JJ: Soft class next year for the HOF.  How does this affect Curt Schilling’s candidacy?  Are there really voters so wishy-washy, that they won’t vote against Curt because of his racist tweets, but will change their minds if they have no one better to vote for?  That’s just bizarre.
Keith Law: I think he gets in next year.

Justalittleoutside: Hi Keith – If the robo-ump idea prospers, will that benefit hitters like Aaron Judge who (anecdotally) seems to get a fair number of pitches outside the strike zone called on him?
Keith Law: Such a change won’t affect all hitters and pitchers equally, but I’d like to see some data to support a claim that it will help/harm a specific player.

Dark Johnny: Does Tyler Anderson have a chance to start in SF?  Can he be a back end starter now that he’s out of COL?
Keith Law: I would lean no.

Marani: Matt Harvey’s still a FA.  What kind of contract would be reasonable for him?  I remember him as being the toast of NYC just a few years ago, but he’s been pretty awful the last 3+ years, and I’m wondering if anyone would give him more than a Triple A contract at this point.
Keith Law: Triple-A with invitation to spring training. He has to show he can get someone out at this point. It’s been too long.

Ryan: Have you noticed yourself getting more aggressive in ranking J2 signings earlier than you perhaps would have in the past?
Keith Law: No.

Matt: What would you guess is holding up a Betts to Dodgers trade at this point?
Keith Law: Probably the two sides not agreeing on the players involved. Just a guess.

Dave : Would you vote for Helton in the future? Crosses the 60 war mark on Baseball-Ref
Keith Law: I didn’t this year, even though I had spots open. He’s just short for me. I reserve the right to change my mind on any votes, though.

Jeff: More productive year in second year with new team ? Bryce or Manny Machado ?
Keith Law: I think both will be better, but Machado has more room to improve right now.

James: Have you seen Hjelle of the SF Giants pitch?  And how does his size impact his effectiveness against hitters?
Keith Law: In college, yes. Would love to see him extend a bit more out front to take advantage of the height, but he’s already deceptive and last year his velocity crept up a half-grade or more.

Lester: Do you prefer Cartel or Press for coffee in AZ ?
Keith Law: Cartel. Also love crepe bar, which uses local roasters and has a real barista on site.

King Felix: any chance for me making the Braves 25 man, or am I toast ?
Keith Law: I’m very pessimistic given your stuff the last year-plus.

Dave : I’ve been reading your film reviews, thank you for those. Is Parasite your best pic choice?
Keith Law: Yes, it’s still my #1 for 2019. I haven’t seen Uncut Gems, Jojo Rabbit, or Ford Vroom Ferrari.

Scott U: After Jorge Soler’s breakout season in 2019, how much regression, if any, will we see in 2020?
Keith Law: Some for sure. How much may depend on the Happy Fun Ball. He always had talent but don’t we have to be suspicious of any hitter whose big breakout came in 2019?

Pat D: Now that he’s got two years under the belt, do you have any opinions on Boone as a manager?  It seems like he’s done a good job, but he’s also obviously been blessed with loads of talent.
Keith Law: That’s fair. He inherited a very good team and they’ve been very good.

Lester: Shluld the Indians cash in on a Lindor trade now or at deadline?
Keith Law: Now, if they get an acceptable offer.

Trey: 2019 GDP number released : 2.3%. That’s nominal growth, slightly better than tepid, and def not as Trump markets “best economy in the history of the US.” So, why can’t dems capitalize on 1) lowest corporate taxes in history, 2) close to lowest income taxes on wealthy, 3) lowest capital gains taxes in history, 4) absurdly low ongoing federal fund rates, and yet…..only 2.3% gdp? GOP economic claim that they help the middle class is laughable, by ‘almost’ any metric.
Keith Law: I’d really like to see a change in how the media – and many universities – discuss macroeconomics. Things that the econ world long believed would lead to economic growth just haven’t in the last twenty years. Some have led to modest growth but income inequality; some haven’t led to growth at all. Anyway, whoever gets the Democratic nomination should campaign at least in part on the economy.

Mike @ Seattle: As a Mariners fan, this is the most excited I’ve ever been to see your prospects package. That said and based on the little I know, I found it odd they put so much faith in White as a first baseman that doesn’t have a ton of power. What did you think of that contract? Has he turned a corner at the plate, where he’s more than just elite defense at 1b?
Keith Law: He’s a solid regular, at least. I think there’s hard contact that might lead to power down the road.

Harrisburg Hal: My sons (youngest 8) really enjoy Azul.  While I’m not a programmer, it would seem an easy game to replicate as an app.  Do you understand the process why some games become apps, and others do not?
Keith Law: Licensing.

Mason : Hey Klaw, Mike Hazen has done a really good job of walking the line of competing and still building the farm system. amazing what happens when you get a real GM
Keith Law: I wrote that the other day. I completely agree.

JP: do you anticipate the Red Sox losing draft picks for the Alex Cora situation?
Keith Law: Yes, since Houston did.

Louis: Dusty seems like a bad fit. Astros are high tech and Dusty is as old school as it gets. Didn’t he once say guys who walk but can’t run just clog the basepaths
Keith Law: He did, although I think that was 15+ years ago.

Brian: Betts is obviously great but does he provide that much surplus value given that it is 1 year and close to $30 million? Are the calculations different when talking about a 7 WAR guy?
Keith Law: If those 7 WAR put you into the playoffs, then yeah, he would.

James: How good do you think the dodger rotation minus Ryu and Dick Mtn is? With the Kenta Maeda situation, Stripling being underwhelming, And the youth of Gonsolin and May, do you think it was a colossal failure not to get any SP help thus offseason?
Keith Law: They’ve held on to their young arms for a while now; I believe it was in part a bet on those guys being ready to fill out a rotation around this time.

Nick: No question, just a recommendation. I saw your review of American Factory, and thought I would recommend One Child Nation, which is streaming on Prime Video. Excellent documentary about China’s one child policy. Thanks for the great work.
Keith Law: Will check it out once I get through my Oscar list. Still too many films to see. I did watch Pain & Glory last night – Banderas was outstanding.

Jeff Campbell: I don’t get why the Dodgers wouldn’t give up their two “top” prospect, plus more, for one year of Mookie Betts.  It’s almost a cinch that at least one of those two will be a bust — that’s just the way it is with prospects — and Mookie would make them the prohibitive favorite.  Flags fly forever (even in Houston).
Keith Law: Aren’t they already the favorites to win the NL West?

Dan: Are you legitimately concerned about the Coronavirus or do you think it’s being a bit blown up in the news due to its quasi-mysterious status? At this point, 8000 people in the US have already died from the regular old flu this season, so that remains a much larger worry for me.
Keith Law: It’s Ebola all over again. Get your flu shot, and get your kids fully vaccinated, and if you’re of the right age for other shots get those too. Stop worrying about the disease that isn’t even here yet – and, so far, doesn’t seem to be as serious as SARS or MERS, although that could change – and worry about the ones that are.

JP: when with your prospect package start to drop at The Athletic?
Keith Law: February 24th.

Alex: Heading to San Diego next week for sun– do you have any new recommendations of restaurants to try  (Juniper & Ivy, Crack Shack for chicken sandwiches are my usual go tos)
Keith Law: Herb & Wood is spectacular. Cucina Urbana. RoVino the Foodery. And always breakfast at the Mission.

Spider Puig: How, exactly, is Moose not an upgrade at 2B when the Reds received a total WAR of -0.6 from the position in 2019?
Keith Law: Because they had Senzel ready to go at 2b; the difference between his defensive value there and his defensive value in CF is probably a win, and that’s before considering his trouble staying healthy and whether 2b is better for that.. Also, Moustakas’ defense at 2b is a complete unknown. He’s barely played it and I don’t think he’ll be average on defense.

BIll: Mize, Manning and Skubal: Do all three make their debut this year (health being the wild card), or do you see one or more of them being held back until ’21?
Keith Law: Health permitting they should all be up this year.

JP: unpopular opinion? do not do some half-assed DH to the NL option (DH as long as the starting pitcher is still in). either go full bore, or don’t change anything.
Keith Law: Full DH, please. Same rules everywhere.

Nick: I’m thinking of moving to Omaha. Have you ever been through there? Any thoughts on the city?
Keith Law: Once, really enjoyed it, great food scene, very manageable city, nice walkable downtown. It is, however, the least visibly diverse city I’ve ever visited.

Morris: The weirdest take I see on your Reds piece is that the trade for Puig got them Bauer, as if Taylor Trammell does not exist
Keith Law: In general, the Reds fans who were civil – I got more vile comments on Twitter yesterday than I had in some time – in disagreeing all seemed to dismiss the key point that they’ve traded three top 100 prospects in the last 13 months for not much return.

Matt: Careful, Keith.  Kobe was never even brought up on rape charges, much less convicted.  That story was extremely muddled, even for a “he said/she said” case.
Keith Law: GMAFB.

Michael: Co-worker of mine is suffering from major depression.  Cries all the time, can’t get out of his car, etc.  He’s seeing a psych and on meds.  Anything I can say/do that will help other than tell him I’m here for him, care about him, etc
Keith Law: That’s the best thing you can do. Don’t shy away from him at a time when others probably will.

Nick: Sonmez shouldn’t have been suspended, but can’t you agree that it was callous and tacky to re-tweet a 2017 article regarding Kobe’s rape case mere hours after his death?  THAT’s what she was compelled to announce upon hearing the news?
Keith Law: No, I don’t agree. I think it’s callous and tacky to praise him as a hero – especially talking about him as some sort of feminist – and completely ignore one of the most significant, public, and well-evidenced events of his life. Imagine how his victim felt seeing him lauded to the stars.

BIll: Do you see a scenario in which Lou Whitaker ever gets elected to the Hall of Fame? (At least the Tigers are finally retiring his number.)
Keith Law: I feel like the answer is no. Maybe if the Hall changes how it selects the people on the committees, but that seems unlikely.

Jason: I know your top 100 list isn’t coming out for a few weeks, but who do you think you’ll have higher: Dominguez or Abrams? Does Dominguez have too much risk to have him ranked super high or is the upside too good to ignore?
Keith Law: Abrams. Dominguez is 16 and hasn’t played a game yet.

Mike: In regards to the Kobe question – the stans for Kobe (or anybody) will always sound like idiots defending whomever it is they blindly follow. But a family is grieving a massive loss of both a husband/father and daughter/sister. Other family’s that were clearly connected to Kobe and his family are grieving their massive losses. IMO, this feels like the wrong time to take a stand on Kobe’s legacy, and add that to the discussion.
Keith Law: See above. This consider’s Kobe’s family, but doesn’t consider the woman who accused him of rape.

Brian: After a couple of run based cocktails do you ever think about your decision not to join the Astros front office and wonder if the highs (World Series win) would have been worth the lows (seemingly everything else)?
Keith Law: LOL, no. I have never regretted any of my decisions to decline chances to return to a front office – I think of all the time with my daughter I would have missed and I know I made the right calls.

Lara: Democrats campaign on an appeal to your greatest hopes  — health care for everyone, a perfect environment, everyone gets along, etc.; Republican campaign on an appeal to your greatest fears.
Keith Law: Fear sells.

JR: Are you a fan of The Good Place? If so, thoughts on final season (if you’ve been watching). I’m enjoying it, but it’s definitely run it’s course. Always better for a TV show to leave too soon then stay too long.
Keith Law: I loved S1-2, need to watch S3-4. I couldn’t do it weekly – that is a show I think I have to binge.

Sean: As a giants fan, I kept hoping for a Brandon Belt break out…which never came and likely never will…however he has been an average-good major leaguer for a while now. I should be happy with the production he’s provided and not disappointed that he never became a superstar right?
Keith Law: Yes – can’t control the injuries, either.

J: I recently saw in a documentary that Mick Jagger used The Master & The Margarita for inspiration when writing the lyrics for Sympathy For The Devil
Keith Law: Yep, he’s said that before. That book is far more influential than I ever realized in college when I was first assigned it.

Trey: Brailyn Marquez, finally a solid recent Cubs s pitching prospect, TOR starter or power closer? And do the Cubs have any other prospects that could hit the rotation soonish?
Keith Law: More likely a power closer IMO.

Uli Jon: Did you ever review “Left Hand of Darkness”? Halfway through and it’s my genre holy trinity of concept, world building, and writing skill, the last of which is sometimes lacking in sci-fi.
Keith Law: I did indeed, and loved it.

JP: would MLB consider it a “problem” if the same 10 teams from 2019 made the 2020 playoffs? or does it not matter?
Keith Law: They wouldn’t, and I’m not sure I would. If that continued going forward, yes, that would become one.

Michael: For anyone who thinks Kobe maybe didn’t rape her, read https://www.thedailybeast.com/kobe-bryants-disturbing-rape-case-the-dn…
Keith Law: Is that what Sonmez tweeted?

Spencer: A finance professor in college once told me that we can argue over policy and how that policy will affect economic growth all we want, but at some point certainty becomes more important.  Based on the proposal differences from the right and left, I’m beginning to think he may have been on to something.  Not saying where we should land; just saying people can’t plan when both sides are advocating for large changes every four years.
Keith Law: Perhaps, although to some extent I think all the macro stuff I was taught (20+ years ago) assumed too strongly that people would alter basic decisions around work and life in response to small changes in tax rates.

Lee: It’s been reported that Betts is seeking 12 years for 420 million.   A deal that long just seems like it’s destined to blow up in the teams face.  I’d love for the Red Sox to keep him but after seeing what’s happened to Dustin Pedroia on a much cheaper/not as many years deal, I’m not surprised that ownership is balking at doing that.   I’m all for Betts getting as much money as he possibly can but I also understand why it’s almost certainly going to be a bad deal for the team.
Keith Law: He can ask for that, doesn’t mean he’ll get it or close to it.

Giuseppe: Do you have any tips for stretching pizza dough? Mine always suffers from springback.
Keith Law: Might need to rest it longer. Also I stretch mine over the backs of my hands – knuckles, no fingertips – so gravity does some of the work. But I think the gluten in your doughs hasn’t relaxed enough.

Dan: Speaking of vaccines, I live in NJ and am incredibly frustrated by recent anti-vaxxers’ “wins” in the state. Really hope exemption loopholes are closed soon, but it’s so demoralizing to see anti-science bullshit continue to proliferate across the country.
Keith Law: Especially in a state that would like to claim it has good schools.
Keith Law: Keep calling your reps.

John: Why is Dusty’s reputation from 15 years ago still so difficult for him to shed? He has obviously always been one of the best at the managing people aspect of the job. And now that analytics and/or front office drive so much of the strategic aspect of the game, his weaknesses have been covered up.
Keith Law: It was extremely visible. You screw up in the playoffs and no one ever forgets.

Shaun: favorite Homestar Runner bit of all time?
Keith Law: The Homestarmy episode. Will you, stupid?

Erik: Do you endeavor to watch as many Oscar noms as possible or just ones that peak your interest
Keith Law: I try to see as many as I can and only skip ones to which I have a real objection – Richard Jewell this year, Hacksaw Ridge a few years ago.

Kip: Keith, why does the left reject nuclear energy at face value?  The technolgoy has improved, creates the majority of energy in France, and the amount of waste generated is less than advertised.  It seems foolish to reject emissions free energy entirely.
Keith Law: Fear. It’s unpopular, even though it’s quite safe overall. It’s a science literacy issue.

TomBruno23: Enjoying some brussels sprouts (thanks for the receipe from long ago) with some kung pao sauce. Thinking about taking down the entire 1lb bag. Will I be ok?
Keith Law: You stay … over there.

JB: It looks like Vandy will roll Austin Martin out at 3B again this year, but Corbin has also said Martin is one of the best defensive CFs he’s coached. Assuming Martin is plus out there as well, do you think pro teams will draft him as a CF where the bat plays even more than at 3B?
Keith Law: I thought I read that their plan was to try him some at SS. He played tremendous third base defense for me last spring.

Joe: Reds fans would like to point out that it’s embarrassing for a senior writer to claim that their pitching needed upgrading and not their hitting, whole also saying that a 2 or 3 WAR moose isn’t a big upgrade over the negative WAR they accumulated at that position last year.
Keith Law: I’m sure they would like to claim that, but they’d be wrong. Their pitching last year rested on the backs of multiple pitchers having career years of sorts that are not likely to be repeated. Sonny Gray had a career high in WAR after three years of far inferior performance, and then had minor elbow surgery. Luis Castillo hit a career high in innings to get to his new WAR high, and some of the underlying data looks fluky. I’ve pointed out that Desclafani has career-long issues with LHB, lacking a good pitch to use against them. Those three guys combined for around 11 WAR last year, with Desclafani throwing less than a full season. I don’t think you would reasonably bet the over on that, or even bet for a straight repeat. Multiple Reds fans claimed I said their pitching wasn’t good in 2019, but I never said that because it’s not true. I said it is a weakness for them in 2020, an opinion I hold based on what I just said above (and more). As for second base, I answered that above. Sorry, Joe.
Keith Law: Adding this after the chat … I also think Senzel and Winker are going to be much more productive at the plate this year.

Mike: I respect your consistency when it comes to defending sexual assault victims. I’m trying to look inward and figure out why I find it so distasteful to be brought up right now, and I guess it’s just an overwhelming sadness I have for that poor mother. But you’re right, I’d hate for that poor victim to think the world had forgotten that this man was (at least on one occasion) a monster.
Keith Law: The part of all of this I find most objectionable is the argument that it’s too soon to point out negative facts about someone’s who’s died. When is it okay? The next day? A week later? Ever? Why does someone’s death mean we can’t discuss the complexity of their life and/or their legacy? It seems like the ideal time to do so, even if that means touching on sensitive topics.

Jason: What was your objection to Hacksaw Ridge?
Keith Law: Its anti-Semitic domestic abuser director.

E.H. Zwick: Any Athletic podcasts on the horizon?
Keith Law: Yes.

Nolan: don’t talk about guns after a school shooting, don’t talk about rape after a rapist dies, but the second a virus spreads in an asian country and people are dying, start in on that orientalist bullshit!
Keith Law: Some day, one of those viruses will start here. It’s inevitable. Then we’ll see what it’s like to have the world close its doors to us, and maybe we’ll regret how we’ve acted in the past to countries that needed our help rather than our scorn and our prejudice.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Reminders: My prospect rankings run on The Athletic the week of 2/24, and my second book, The Inside Game, will be out on April 21st from Harper Collins. You can pre-order the book here. Thank you as always for all of your questions and for reading. I’ll try to keep these going until the rankings are ready!

Keith Law: It can’t all be wedding cake. Klawchat.

Krontz: Taylor Trammell ever hit enough for a Jacoby Ellsbury comp to be reasonable?
Keith Law: I don’t see them as similar players, really. I believe Trammell will hit, though.

Keith: Clay Davenport’s preseason win projections really like the Mets (96 wins) in the National league behind only the Dodgers (102). What have they done this offseason to improve so significantly, and do you buy into it?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on both win totals there.

Keith: Who do you project as the White Sox starting rotation in July 2020?
Keith Law: Giolito, Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Cease, Kopech. I wouldn’t rule out seeing Stiever in the majors before the season ends. Obviously I’m putting Lopez in the bullpen, which I’ve always thought was his ideal role.

addoeh: With Terry Jones’s passing, what was your favorite Python sketch?  Upper Class Twit of the Year has to be mine.
Keith Law: That’s a contender. Argument Clinic. The Piranha brothers. And the entire show built around the Michael Ellis gag is probably my favorite thing they did, although that’s a series of sketches. It’s hilarious and also wonderfully paranoid.

Keith: Hey Keith, thanks for the chat. Does Dylan Carlson’s breakout last year fit is profile? His BA was 50 points higher than his career average and his slg perctange was .150 points higher. He did do part of this at AAA in his age 20 season. Thanks and good luck at the Athletic.
Keith Law: Not sure about your question but I’ll say I think the breakout was real.

Dee Arby: Klaw, I really enjoy how you speak up regarding domestic violence.  My question is, how do you deal with the issue that because these athletes are so rich, their accusers can have ulterior motives? For example, how would you have done with the Brian Banks issue? He was the USC linebacker who spent six years in prision because he was falsely accused? Genuinely curious, not being snarky.
Keith Law: The “ulterior motives” thing is kind of bullshit. Most abuse/assault victims don’t report. Of those who do, nearly all are telling the truth. There’s a substantial social and often financial cost to coming forward. Just because every once in a blue moon there’s a case of a false accusation – which gets over-reported, of course – doesn’t mean we can or should generalize and think that many more accusers are lying. They’re not. The data say so, and ignoring that is classic base-rate neglect.

Lyle: In BA’s 2023 Opening Day Lineups for the Mariners, they had Tom Murphy at catcher. (I know, I know, not your list.) Can you come up with any legitimate reason other than a trade as to why Cal Raleigh would not be the starting catcher by then (especially wrt Murphy)?
Keith Law: No, I’d put Raleigh there.

bartleby: Keith, your comments on the Clemens/McReady relationship were interesting- what do you think of Woody Allen?
Keith Law: He’s canceled, appropriately. (I only saw … three of his films, I think, the last being Midnight in Paris whenever that came out.)

Michael: Your thoughts on the Metz Hiring Louis Rojas?
Keith Law: I wasn’t really kidding with my tweet the other day – the process ended up with them hiring a highly qualified manager, one with ~1000 games of managing experience, a bilingual guy who’s considered forward-thinking, comfortable with data, and good with players. Their second choice was the better candidate.

Buckner 86: Is Balazovic‘s upside a top 25 SP?
Keith Law: That might be aggressive but I’m a big fan.

Mike: You may have covered it in a previous chat, but are you going to be doing any podcasts with the Athletic or elsewhere?
Keith Law: Yes, with the Athletic, starting later this spring.

Tyler: Congrats on the move to The Athletic. Will you still be holding chats here regularly or moving to a different platform (presumably theirs)?
Keith Law: Klawchats will continue here for the foreseeable future.

Del, Venice CA: Whenever anyone talks about the Mets the consensus seems to be that Dom Smith is the odd man out and he should be traded. Since JD Davis’ value could never be higher after his 2019 season AND he fields multiple positions like a DH shouldn’t he be the one of the two to be shopped?
Keith Law: The assumption built into those statements is that Smith would have a higher trade value because he’s younger and a plus defender at 1b.

John Olerud: Full disclosure, I have posed this question to other baseball writers I respect, as I am truly interested to see if there are different perspectives on this subject. Based on the numbers, I’m surprised there hasn’t been much discussion (at least none that I’ve seen) about how Larry Walker’s career is truly a lot closer statistically to Jeter’s than impressions would imply. Indeed, Jeter has the milestone numbers that are important with HOF voters. And he was especially good when it ‘mattered’, but that has a lot to do with who and what teams he was lucky enough to play with and for. Indeed, this is not so much to disparage Jeter, but more a reflection of the “fame” element inherent to the HOF. Whatevever the reasons, do you personally find it at all strange that there seems to be this prevailing feeling that somhow Walker doesn’t breathe the same air as Jeter? Or maybe you disagree entirely with this premise? Thanks.
Keith Law: Jeter is a clear HoFer, but benefited from playing for the team that gets on national TV most often, and from having great teammates that helped him appear in the playoffs almost every year and in six World Series, and from announcers falling all over themselves to praise him even for things he did poorly (coughdefensecough). He was a great player and I voted for him. I just don’t understand why we have to inflate his accomplishments rather than respecting him for exactly who and what he really was.

Moe Mentum: I know you favor board games that involve strategy and puzzles (e.g. Carcassone), but do you ever play more mainstream “party” games that reward creativity with words? I think it would be fun to play games like Balderdash or Wise & Otherwise with a man with your wit and flair for language.
Keith Law: Wise & Otherwise is cool. I like Taboo as well, and there’s a game from about two years ago called Trapwords that works similarly but where the opposing team picks the words you can’t say. When I’m in a group setting and we want a party game I’ll usually suggest One Night Ultimate Werewolf (since it requires almost no instruction to play) or Codenames.

Craig: The only way I can make sense of the Brewers offseason is that they want a bunch of interchangable parts at 1B, SS and 3B in the hopes that with platoon splits and pinch hitting, they can be league averagish at those positions and have Yelich/Huira carry the team offensively. Is this accurate?
Keith Law: I don’t like assuming any team is done at this point in the offseason. Still some decent FA out there and a lot of trade chatter.

The Sloth: KLaw, are you attending any Phish concerts on the summer tour?
Keith Law: My girlfriend pulled up the schedule last night … decent chance we’ll go to one of the two mid-Atlantic venues in August.

The Sloth: What are your thoughts on the upside and most likely outcome for Brennan Davis?
Keith Law: That’s a question I’ll answer in the top 100, which will run the week of February 24th on the Athletic.

Joe: How does the Beltran news affect his HOF candidacy?
Keith Law: My guess is not at all.

Sammy So-So: If you’re a GM trading for a player like Nolan Arenado who has an opt-out after two years, are you offering assets in return to the other team just for those two years if a new arrangement with the player can’t be reached before the deal is done?
Keith Law: I’m valuing my return as two years of Arenado and assuming he’s opting out. I wouldn’t pay in prospects on the assumption he’s staying.
Keith Law: If he doesn’t opt out, something has gone wrong.

Christian (Raleigh, NC): Keith, which Braves pitching prospect has the best chance of making a big jump this year and helping out at the major league level? Anderson, Wright, Toussaint, Muller, etc.  P.S. — I hope things work out and you are able to come to the Raleigh/Cary area for a book signing. I would love to come out and meet you.
Keith Law: Anderson is the best, but Touki has the biggest potential to make a jump. Such a great athlete and a loose, quick arm.

Kevin: What are the chances that Anthopolous opts not to resign Freeman to a worthy extension?
Keith Law: Freeman will be 32 when his current deal ends. I’m not sure what a “worthy” extension means but I’m not rushing to extend him into his mid-30s.

Joe: Orioles are going in on BA for leaving Mountcastle off their top 100.  Seems like it would be odd for a guy who doesn’t walk or offer defensive value to actually make a top 100, no?
Keith Law: He’s not a top 100 candidate for me at all.

Matt: What board game do you think is underrated? What do you like about this game?
Keith Law: New Bedford – a worker placement game with a lot of fun elements (including the whaling aspect) that plays well under an hour. Glen More – a medium-weight game of tile-laying where one of the main goals is to convert wheat into whiskey. I’ve been playing La Isla a bit more lately, and I really like the way it forces you to plan ahead a few turns but also prevents you from having to plan ahead more than that, so it doesn’t become too heavy a game.

Tony: I’m not sure how to phrase this as a question, but the thing that I’ve never been able to make peace with about Andruw Jones’ Hall of Fame candidacy is that while he was truly one of the best defenders at his position in history for a decade, he then spent the last five years of his career being so bad defensively that not only was he moved off of center field, he was pretty much moved off the field entirely.
Keith Law: Because of his knees. He was so elite a defender that he’s become the modern standard for CF defense.

Bighen: Mets are going to make a bad Marte trade because Wilpons and Bvw know this is basically their last shot. No real question here but a little frustrating
Keith Law: Maybe. The Padres seem motivated to make a deal, and they have the prospects to acquire anyone, so there’s some chance they make a bad trade too.
Keith Law: (FTR, I wouldn’t deal Gore for any of these 1- or 2-year players.)

Professor Woland: I’m worried that the narrative now with regards to Altuve is going to be that he owes his success to the sign stealing stuff instead of natural talent, which would have a negative impact on future players of a similar size. Do you think that will be the case?
Keith Law: I have had that thought too. I hope it’s not the case; it’ll help if Altuve has a typical Altuve year in 2020.

Jerry: What kind of peak slash could you see for Kelenic? Is .300/.400/.500 in the realm of possibilities? Is he an MVP-caliber type of prospect (all things considered of course)?
Keith Law: MVP caliber prospect. He was in my midseason top 10 in July.

Casey: Is Zach Thompson a guy who could contribute sometime late this season or would it be wiser to get him through a full minor league season healthy and let him compete for a spot next year?
Keith Law: Seems aggressive especially since he had the Kentucky Forearm flu just two years ago.

Logan: Should the contracts of Acuna and Ozzie allow the Braves to go bigger in other areas? Seems like Alex is not interested in any kind of long term type additions..
Keith Law: Other than 3b, where would he really upgrade? I feel like they’re set at so many spots.
Keith Law: I guess if you could convert the pitching prospects into a top-end starter, sure, but I don’t know of any one that’s available.

Dan on Oahu: Keith- congrats on your move to the Athletic, I had been on the fence about subscribing but jumped on the bandwagon as soon as I saw the move and it’s well worth the price of admission. What would be a reasonable return to the Cubs for Bryant from either the Braves or Dodgers? Same question for Arrenado?
Keith Law: I heard from one exec that the Cubs weren’t really talking Bryant with suitors. This was a club that, in theory, would be in his market.

Nathan: I have a 7 year old daughter who loves all things Disney. With Disney+ available she is wanting to watch some of the “classic” movies. How would you handle some of the blatantly racist movies of the past? I’m thinking specifically Dumbo (the crows) and Peter Pan (native Americans). Do I not let her watch those? Let her watch those but explain why they’re bad portrayals of these groups of people?
Keith Law: I had forgotten how racist Peter Pan was until I re-watched it with my daughter. She saw it once and that’s it; we didn’t let her watch it again. I don’t think she’s seen the animated Dumbo.

Hank: Why haven’t the Angels received much heat for sacrificing their 1st rounder Wil Wilson just to shed Cozarts salary? DBacks caught hell for the same type deal Arroyo/Touki..
Keith Law: The Angels used that money to sign Rendon. The Dbacks did it because they’d screwed up elsewhere.

Doug: Do you see Dansby Swanson ever being more with bat? Seems like his EV and Hard Hits improved, hopefully better results are coming. Maybe a Brandon Crawford type late bloom with the bat?
Keith Law: Yes, I think there’s more there.

Nick: Re: Daulton Varsho, does the bat play if they move him down the defensive spectrum?  And do you think he can contribute for AZ this year?
Keith Law: Yes, it does. No, probably not.

Larry: Who is the college pitcher and hitter you think will make the biggest jump this spring?
Keith Law: I’m still figuring out when it’ll run but I will have something on the draft up at the Athletic within the next month. I really liked Cole Wilcox in HS, but scouts I’ve asked have him more back of the first; I feel like he could end up in the top ten if he does what I think he can do all spring.

Doug: Lucius Fox and Anderson Tejeda – do they both stay at SS?  Who has the better future?
Keith Law: Fox for sure does. I think he’s the better prospect but I also haven’t done as much work on Texas for my top 100 yet.

Kevin W: What do you think of 3 batter tule and september rosters down from 40-28
Keith Law: I preferred a 2-batter rule but I’ll take this. September roster reduction I think addresses a real problem in a way that hurts players.

Steve : Seems like the Mets have taken a lot of unnecessary abuse for this Beltran saga.  It feels to me that they did the right thing firing him and Rojas was the right choice with his experience managing (and maybe should have been hired in the first place.)  You agree?
Keith Law: Their mistake was hiring Beltran in the first place, because he has no experience whatsoever. They have since done all the right things. (Also, if I were Beltran, I’d offer myself to any interested club as a manager in the minors this year. Go get a year of experience and odds are you’ll get interviewed for every opening next October.)

Kevin W: What is longest home run you have ever seen in person?
Keith Law: I’m not sure about in-game but I saw Barry Bonds take BP in Toronto in 2003 and hit one off the restaurant in CF that is the hardest-hit ball I think I’ve ever seen. Gallo at the Futures Game might be the longest HR in a game.

Dusty: I appreciate the candidness in your newsletter about the difficult moral judgments involved in voting for the Hall of Fame.  I just wanted to say that I appreciate having you as a voter and I hope you will continue to vote, as I feel like you give a voice to those of us who read you regularly and there need to be more voices like yours and not less.  Either way, I respect your decision and the thoughtfulness and openness with which you wrestle with it.
Keith Law: I feel like voting is a privilege and a responsibility. If I can’t fulfill the duties of a voter to my own standards, I won’t vote.

Beau: Chris Murphy (BOS) have any chance of remaining a starter? Didn’t seem to walk as many as expected in his prob debut.
Keith Law: Yes, definitely.

Kevin W: Do you think the best movies today are better than the best movies of 70’s and before?
Keith Law: Yes, but the gap between the best movies and the most commercially successful ones has widened.

James: My first Klawchat since you joined the Athletic so want to start off saying congrats. I’m seemingly one of the few who have no issue including Francisco Alvarez in a deal for Starling Marte. In brief, him being 3-4 years off at best, the overall “failure rate” (for lack of a better term) of catching prospects, and Marte’s no doubt talent and fit on the win-now Mets roster are all reasons why I see his inclusion as a headliner as a no-brainer. Am I crazy?
Keith Law: Crazy, no. But I don’t think I’d do it.
Keith Law: Not saying I wouldn’t trade Alvarez, just that I wouldn’t do it for a year of Marte (EDIT: Two years of Marte, including the team option). Plus, you just traded Kelenic in a deal that was an abject disaster … don’t further gut the system for more short-term help.

Kevin W: Do you think cora gets a lifetime ban?  And should altuve and bregman (and whoever else) be punished if they are caught cheating?
Keith Law: I hope not (for Cora). The players got immunity; we can’t change that now.

Matt: I watched American Factory last night. What a dystopian movie. And it’s REAL! How on earth can those workers justify not having an union when they went from making $30 to $14? I just don’t get how people fall for this garbage.
Keith Law: People falling for propaganda and voting against their own interests has been going on in the U.S. for over a century. It’s particularly stark now because, at least in my opinion, better information is available, and it’s easy to see how corporate money pushes its messages more strongly than, say, the pro-union forces were able to.
Keith Law: (Also, no idea how that movie didn’t immediately result in NLRB investigations into Fuyao. Its executives violated federal labor laws on camera!)

Steve: My wife is due for our first kid in two weeks. Any advice on fatherhood?
Keith Law: Get The Happiest Baby on the Block. And help your wife get as much sleep as she can.

Vincent Adultman: Has Josh Breaux passed Anthony Siegler (even if neither look like starting catchers) and does Antonio Gomez have a higher ceiling than both?
Keith Law: No.

Vincent Adultman: BA’s recent mock draft had Pete Crow-Armstrong falling to the Yankees at the bottom of the round- leaving the team pairing aside, has he “fallen” this much in the eyes of evaluators (or is it that deep of a draft) and if he fell that far, would you expect him to go to college?
Keith Law: He’s not a top half of the draft guy right now; I’m not sure he’d make my top 30 if I wrote one today.

Joe: Please explain how Sammy Sosa is not a HOF ?
Keith Law: 58.6 career WAR with a short peak is actually on the low side for Hall of Famers.

Roger: What do you make of Coors field splits? Arenado’s BA and OPS are pretty staggering such that I’d be very cautious in a trade, no?
Keith Law: Plenty of evidence that Rockies who leave Coors outperform their road stats from when they were with Colorado.

Alex: I 100% agree that a discussion needs to be had regarding DV and the HOF.  As a family law lawyer, though, I struggle with the suspensions that leagues hand out to players that involve withholding their pay.  In a lot of these cases, the victim is awarded a percentage of the abusers earnings as spousal support, child support, etc.  By docking an abuser’s pay, you are taking money out of the victim’s pocket.  That isn’t ideal.  Of course, a domestic abuser getting to appear on the national stage isn’t ideal, either.  What’s the answer?  The suspension holds but equalizing payments are made to the victim directly from the team withholding salary?
Keith Law: I appreciate the insight & sentiment in your proposal, but in the cases we’ve had so far, many of the victims have stayed with the suspended players, so I’m not sure how you could pay a player’s wife while he was suspended without pay.

lucas: If Amed Rosario struggles again at SS this year (acknowledging he improved in the 2nd half), would you move on, knowing Gimenez and Mauricio are knocking on the door?
Keith Law: He was much better in the second half. I’m not giving up on him.

Jason: What is  the ceiling for Luis Urias?
Keith Law: Above average regular. Curious to see how Milwaukee gets him 500 AB this year, which he needs.

Brandon: Related to my Fire Bridich question–Bridich said, regarding Arenado’s opt-out, that it was Bridich’s suggestion.  Two questions: (a) if that is true, is there any rational justification for the team to suggest a player opt-out unless needed to make the deal; (b) if not true, is there any good PR reason for the team to assert that the opt-out was the team’s idea.  Thanks.
Keith Law: I have no inside knowledge on this but I would be shocked if Arenado would have signed an extension without an opt-out.

Kevin: To the people who think Scott Rolen is not a HOFer, but vote in Omar Vizquel….what is wrong with you
Keith Law: A great question.

Joe: Disney+ will preface these movies now acknowledging they’re from another era.
Keith Law: Yes, and I’m not sure if that’s the right approach, or if they should do what they did with Song of the South, which is bury the movie below a million copies of the E.T. video game.

Oscar: All of the brouhaha regarding Jeter not getting 100% of votes has allowed me to realize just how much I don’t care about the HOF.
Keith Law: It’s so dumb. You get the same plaque with 75.00001% and with 100%.

Gary C: How good of a prospect is Neovli Marte for Seattle? What is his scouting report?
Keith Law: Another one for the top 100/org rankings next month.

Mark: EXTREMELY HAPPY to hear you’re going to be doing a podcast in the near future. Any chance we can get regular segments with Karabell? There’s still a Baseball Today-sized hole in my heart. #FreeBiasCat
Keith Law: I don’t know if ESPN would allow that, but of course I’d love to get the band back together.

Lee: I read a report that Triston Casas grew an inch and gained 10 pounds this offseason.  His bat seems legit but any chance he could stick at 3B?
Keith Law: For me, no. 1b only.

Sammy Sosa: Have you ever played Secret Hitler? Curious how the gaming community feels about it.
Keith Law: I hate the name and theme.
Keith Law: It’s just not funny.

Ben: If healthy, and that’s a big if, could Daulton Jeffries be a #4 starter?
Keith Law: TBH, I have no idea what he’ll look like when healthy. He was very good for a hot minute in college and then got hurt.

Chris: Has Julio Rodriguez passed kellenic as the mariners best prospect in your opinion?
Keith Law: Come on.

Matt W: The Mets wouldn’t have taken so much flack if they were quick and decisive with the move. They waited what, 3 days before making any comment at all, said there was gonna be a statement and then never gave one. Then, there was the ridiculous “I’m just here to talk about Mike Piazza Way” press gaggle the next day, followed by the news dropping a couple hours later. Even that wasn’t straightforward, did Beltran step down? Was it a mutual parting of ways? For all the things the Wilpons are terrible at, and they are numerous, PR/Comms is possibly the worst. So many self-inflicted wounds, even if they ultimately come to the correct decision.
Keith Law: Yes, they are PR-unsavvy, but in the end they got it right. I’m good with that. I’ll still mock the Wilpons for their incompetence, though.

Robert: True or false: the luxury tax penalties are toothless enough that it should never be a priority for the Cubs (or Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers) to get under the threshold if they have any realistic chance at the postseason.
Keith Law: True.

TP: Excited for your work on labor issues with The Athletic.  Apologies if this is too personal, but are you currently or have you been in a union? How might your experiences help shape your coverage?
Keith Law: I’m not now and have never been in one – never worked in a union shop. My parents didn’t either.

Joe: Do you have any favorite board game apps?
Keith Law: I ranked the top 25 for Vulture last year, and then ranked the 8 best new apps of 2019 for Ars Technica. Bear in mind the Carcassonne iOS app, #1 on the first list, is going away on March 1st as the developers’ license is expiring, so buy it now if you want it.

K: Just how good is Kumar Rocker? Strasburg/Harper tier or less?
Keith Law: Way less. That is some rarefied air there.

Nick: Over/Under 25 homers for Evan White in 2020?
Keith Law: I’ll take the under.

Luke: Why We Sleep is fascinating, thanks for the recommendation. In what ways, if any, has the book altered your sleep habits?
Keith Law: I try to be more rigorous about getting to bed on time and giving myself a sleep window of 8 hours. (I am not always successful.) I also am less likely to have a single drink on a weeknight, and I put room-darkening shades in my bedroom.

Aureliano Buendia: Keith, are you planning to watch Jojo Rabbit? I did it recently and it was so much better than expected considering the subject. I’m not saying it should win Best Picture but I think it is worthy of the nomination
Keith Law: Yes, maybe this weekend.

Dave: When do you play boardgames– evening, weekend afternoon, other?
Keith Law: Yes. I play online too – I played one of you this week, in fact. (Good game, reader person whose name I don’t know!)

Gunther Centralperk: Do you see any mechanical issues with Kershaw regarding his lack of a change-up? I really wish he’d work on it and get back to being close to his old self.
Keith Law: I’m missing something here. He’s never really used a changeup – Fangraphs has his highest rate at 5.5% in his first year – and there’s no mechanical issue here. He’s lost his fastball. His average velocity has dropped to a career low for two straight years. That’s his problem.

Robert: No real question…just wanted to point out how mind-blowing it is that the Ricketts family has used up every ounce of good will from the World Series win in just three years. They should’ve been heroes for life, but they’re already disliked as much as the Tribune company was.
Keith Law: It is rather astonishing. All they really had to do was keep the status quo. But I don’t think they care one iota about good will. They care about making more money.

Sean: Will the padres be able to find 500 ABs for trent grisham this year?
Keith Law: As the roster currently stands, yes.

Mike: I know many people ask for parenting advice.  A must have book for parents with children who are challenging, are easily frustrated, and exhibit temper issues is The Explosive Child.  Key theme from the book is thqt children behave well when they can, not when they want to.   Really helps parents better understand what our job is
Keith Law: Thank you. I’d be interested in that myself.

Matt W: What are the chances the one non-Jeter ballot was a blank ballot?
Keith Law: I suppose it’s possible but we had no blank ballots last year.

KF: Do you think the Twins will trade for an impact starter before the season starts, or wait until the trade deadline? What are some names to keep an eye on?
Keith Law: I don’t see any impact starters available in trade.

X-man: Mr. Keith Law, The latest Betts rumor seems ludicrous. “Major prospect haul” but not including any of their top 5?  Is their next group good enough for any combination to be worth it to Boston, even before the supposed poison pill of including Myers (even if including Myers also meant that Price was in the deal but just left out of the stories)?
Keith Law: If the Padres are taking the whole salary, sure – and while I probably wouldn’t do this, you could put together a good package of prospects from outside of the Padres’ top five. Morejon, Weathers, Miller, Baez, Arias – these are all really good prospects but not top five in that system.

Pat D: If Andujar is healthy enough, should he DH and Stanton play in left?  Or is Stanton best to just DH all the time anymore?  This isn’t really a major problem though, is it?
Keith Law: Depends on Stanton’s health, no?

Mat Ji: Did you ever explain to us why you maliciously changed this website so that some of us couldn’t access it via our phones?  For the record, that was probably the most hilarious criticism of you I have ever heard.
Keith Law: For folks who missed it, someone commented and accused me of blocking mobile users from seeing the site. There is an issue here, from something Hostgator did, that I’m trying to unravel, but the idea I would block an entire swath of the audience from the site is WTF.

DJ: Were you aware of any shenanigans going on with the center field restaurant “spying” rumors in toronto and would a gm be aware of it like in the case of houston
Keith Law: None of that was while I was there.

Chris: Favorite homemade condiment? I’m contemplating trying the XO sauce recipe from Serious Eats, and am struggling to make a decision.
Keith Law: I pickle onions regularly (also a Serious Eats recipe, I think). Homemade mayonnaise is the best. I haven’t made chimichurri in a while but it’s great and keeps a while with all the acid.

Matt W: Speaking of outdated disney+ offerings, my wife and I watched Davey Crockett the other night when we were babysitting after the kids went to sleep. I loved that movie as a kid but wow
Keith Law: Fortunately (?) I’ve never seen that.

Jason: Does Michel Baez have a future as a starter (I don’t mean to take any thunder from your prospect package)
Keith Law: Nonzero chance.

pakkap: the in-division hiccup is a problem, but assuming arenado is truly pushing his way out of coors after their baffling handling of him, is keibert ruiz/gonsolin/pederson not a totally equitable (even a bit too much given the opt out) package?
Keith Law: Seems like good value, if the Rockies believe Gonsolin fits their environment.

EG: Through listening to Chvrches and Broods (thanks to reading you), I came across Meg Myers. Have you listened to any of her stuff?
Keith Law: Her name seems familiar but as I look on Spotify none of this rings a bell.

Bill: Who in your opinion is the most underrated actor/actress out there? In my view, it’s Toni Collette, who can do just about any accent and is pretty adept at both comedy and drama. She’s been nominated only once for an Oscar.
Keith Law: Just sticking with Knives Out, I’d say Michael Shannon.

John: What do you think of the most recent Vampire Weekend or Bon Iver album?
Keith Law: I hate VW. Bon Iver doesn’t do much for me.

Stuckeyville: Re the Carcassone app, are the expansions worth it? Thanks
Keith Law: Some are. Traders/Builders and Inns/Cathedrals are my favorite in the physical game.

Dave: Would you buy a baseball team if you had the money to do so?
Keith Law: Sure, they’re great investments. But I’d hire baseball ops people and let them do their jobs.

Robert: Re: Vizquel/non-Rolen voters—I feel the same way about Vizquel/non-Andruw Jones voters. I’m not sure Jones is a HOFer…but if Vizquel is, then Jones is way over the line.
Keith Law: This is also true. There’s this weird bit of revisionism over Vizquel that bothers me because of what it says about our society – he was never viewed as an elite player while he played (he got ONE MVP vote in his entire career), and all objective data say he wasn’t close to Hall of Famer caliber. His supporters simply want to ignore the facts and rewrite history to suit their whims. That’s reprehensible.

Riveryanks: Didn’t notice if you put up a review of Lathe of Heaven. Curious on your thoughts.
Keith Law: Not her best.

Dave: Haven’t been to one of your book events previously, but hoping to make the DC one this spring. What’s the vibe? KLawchat live?
Keith Law: I think that’s a better question for folks who’ve been to one, but I do take a lot of questions and try to crack jokes and generally have a good time. No singing, though.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you as always for all of your questions. You can pre-order my next book, The Inside Game, now via Harper Collins’ site or anywhere fine books are sold. I’ll try to keep the chats going the next few weeks but as I get busy writing the prospect rankings I might have to skip a week here or there. Enjoy your weekends!

Starting at 1 pm ET. I have two new posts up at the Athletic – a breakdown of the Twins signing Josh Donaldson and a brief look at the ten best prospects to change teams this offseason. My latest board game review for Paste covers The Taverns of Tiefenthal, a great new midweight title from the designer of The Mind, That’s Pretty Clever!, and The Quacks of Quedlinburg.

Keith Law: We already did this. Klawchat.

JR: What are your thoughts on Beltran’s involvement with the Astros scandal? Should he be fired as Mets manager? Or does the fact that he was a player at the time and not management absolve him and he shouldn’t be fired?
Keith Law: I’m not sure why players were absolved en masse, but Beltrán’s status as player at the time doesn’t exculpate him, and yes, I think the Mets should move on.

addoeh: Which would have been worse for the Astros, losing their 1st and 2nd round picks for the next two drafts or being frozen out of the international market for two years?
Keith Law: I think the draft.

Wyatt : A different type of Question for You: Do you Prefer light or dark mode on your iPhone?
Keith Law: Light mode is substantially better for your eyes.

Mike: Hi, Keith! I write quite often for my occupation and was wondering what laptop / computer you prefer when writing?
Keith Law: I write on both my windows laptop and my iPad, depending on where I am and what I’m writing.

Greg: Hey, Keith. So glad you’re at the Athletic now. Will you still be able to do ESPN hits though? I know you just left, but there are still people from the Athletic on there all the time (though I can’t think of many who went straight from ESPN to the Athletic).
Keith Law: There’s nothing preventing me from doing so, but then again, they just put a part-time MLB team employee on to comment on an issue that touches the team that employs them, so … maybe not?

Mark: People follow you for your strong opinions. You were a huge supporter of Cora, are you disappointed that someone you thought so highly of, was a large part of this whole sign stealing fiasco? Or, is it more, oh well it was just my guy that got caught?
Keith Law: I am disappointed. I advocated for Alex for years, publicly and privately, because I believed he’d be excellent at the job. I never once expected an outcome like this – if you’d asked me about his integrity at the time I would have said I had zero concerns about it whatsoever.

CyMature: Hi Keith. Has Alex Kirillof “gone backwards?” Injuries? Out of shape?
Keith Law: Uh, what? This is arrant nonsense.

Steve: Granted, everyone needs more pitching but how do you see things shaking out for the White Sox rotation in 2020? Keuchel and Giolito seem like they should give 6+ most of the time. But Lopez gonna Lopez, Gio Gonzalez had a dead arm most of last year, Kopech is going to have some sort of post-TJS innings cap and Cease is sort of a wild card. Tandem starts part of the solution?
Keith Law: Don’t know that I buy your pessimism on Gio, but I agree Lopez remains ill-suited to starting, and they might need another fifth-starter/depth guy. I don’t think it’s out of the question that Stiever makes some starts for them this year.

Greg: A vocal minority of Phillies fans seem to read that Maikel Franco is in FL working in cages and getting to know his new KC teammates and think that THIS is HIS YEAR. Especially now that “he’s free of Kapler and his launch angle nonsense.” This is nuts, right? He’s been in the majors 5 years. And it’s not like he didn’t play for two other managers before Kapler.
Keith Law: That’s nuts. Franco’s issue was never launch angle-related. His approach hasn’t improved since double-A.

Matt: You’re transparent about prospects you whiff on. How about a boardgame. What game did you review too harshly or what game grew on you over time? Any game you reviewed too generously In hindsight? Appreciate your game reviews. Currently playing Imhotep Duel heavily thanks to your review.
Keith Law: I was definitely too high on Bruges and Skyward on first plays. Bruges in particular started to annoy me the more I played (online) because you’re so at the mercy of the cards you draw. It’s a shame as I think there’s a good idea inside there somewhere.

TomBruno23: In your review of Dark Money you mentioned not buying Georgia Pacific products. What about investing? I lean to the left on many issues, but also have holdings in Exxon Mobil and who know what else in some of these mutual funds. Can I still sleep well at night?
Keith Law: For folks who didn’t read that review, I don’t believe individual ‘boycotts’ like that accomplish anything but to make the individual feel better. I try not to buy products from companies owned by Koch industries, I’d never shop at Menard’s, etc. I wouldn’t make direct purchases of stocks in such companies, but I don’t think investing passively in them via index funds is morally questionable. YMMV.

Burton Ernie: Do you see Hinch, Cora or Lunhow (and possibly Beltran) working again in baseball? I think teams wouldn’t want to deal with the fallout.
Keith Law: Yes, maybe (depending on the penalty), unlikely, in that order.

Moe Mentum: Which repeal of an archaic democratic system is the bigger no-brainer – the electoral college, or Iowa/New Hampshire always launching primary season?
Keith Law: Well, both, but I think the Iowa/NH thing would be easier to uproot.

David: Should KeBryan Hayes start the year as Pittsburgh’s starting 3B or does he need more time in AAA? I feel like he is currently the team’s best option, but didn’t know if he was ready yet. (I say all of this knowing they will probably play with his service time and hold him down until July.)
Keith Law: Glove is ready, bat perhaps not, but I also don’t see the harm in starting him now and letting him work with the big league coaches, since he has a full year in AAA already.

Tom: What can a healthy Jordan Montgomery look like?
Keith Law: Fifth starter.

Moe Mentum: What’s Adam Haseley’s ceiling, and has it improved since his major league debut last season?
Keith Law: His ceiling would not have changed just by reaching the majors. A player’s ceiling is his ultimate outcome, a best case scenario based on what he is now and what scouts or analysts project him to become. Getting to the majors doesn’t change that.

mike: If you were the Wilpons (thankfully for you you aren’t), what would you do about Beltran?
Keith Law: Part ways with him.

Ron: Hi Keith- If they would be so inclined, what would it take for the Twins to get Gray from the Rockies? Would Rosario, Gordon, Larnach, Rooker do it or would you have to include a Graterol or Balazovic instead? Thanks
Keith Law: I can’t imagine the Rockies deal Gray and don’t demand one of the Twins’ top four prospects.

Ben: Hi Klaw. With the Donaldson upgrade, should the Twins still look to trade for a pitcher right now? Or, at this point, would it make more sense for them to roll with what they have to start the year, hope they can compete in the regular season like last year, and look to upgrade for “impact” pitching at the deadline when they see how the team shakes out?
Keith Law: They’ve added a lot of pitching already, just not famous pitching.

Dr. Bob: Hi, Keith. The Astros have had a problem with their circle-the-wagons culture and lack of transparency. So they’re looking at Buck Showalter to manage?
Keith Law: Well, if you want someone to come in and impose order, he’s a good choice.

BigDaddeh: Do you think Bernie said a woman couldn’t win?
Keith Law: I think people who’ve defended him, claiming he didn’t/couldn’t have said that, are basing it on their fandom rather than any rational arguments. This coming out presented nothing but downside for Warren, and I think it’s imperfectly analogous to how we treat women who accuse powerful men of harassment and are disbelieved because the accusations are inconvenient. (Meanwhile, The Met Philly is hosting Louis C.K.’s new tour. I’ll cross that venue off my list.)

Matt: Cora is getting a lifetime ban isn’t he?
Keith Law: This is my fear, given the delay in announcing it.

Youngman: What are thoughts on Kyle Wright? Just seems like he’s not meeting expectations and for his age should already be more established.
Keith Law: I don’t agree with anything in that second sentence, sorry.

Alex: What is Emerson Hancock’s upside? Potential ace, Top of rotation, etc– and what is holding him back (other than health)
Keith Law: Best or second-best college starter in the class. Above-average or better starter upside. Health is the major concern.

Ed: Will you reveal your Hall ballot this year? Presumably on the Athletic, if you do …
Keith Law: That is/was my plan.

Aaron C.: Been eyeing pork belly at Costco. You’ve made homemade bacon before, yes? Ruhlman’s recipe from “20”? Any tips/lessons learned?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s the recipe I used, hardest part was maintaining the temperature of the smoker (keeping it from varying too much either way).

ck: Reading Bud Selig’s book. He constantly insists teams were losing money. I know he obviously has his own angle, but could this be true?
Keith Law: No, it’s not true, but I suppose if you repeat a lie often enough eventually you start to believe it.

Guest: And now Beltran is stepping down. Who do the Mets hire now?
Keith Law: Heh, happened right after I started this chat, so I didn’t see it. It’s the right move. Also, this is unrelated, but Beltrán had absolutely no experience relevant to the job. The Mets could end up better off in the end, assuming they hire someone who has some relevant experience.

Chris: I thought the Nats pivoting to Harris and Hudson was solid. They keep cheap, IMO.
Keith Law: They stay flexible, but I don’t think they’ve done poorly and wouldn’t say they were “cheap,” not after they paid to keep Strasburg.

Dave: Which CTY site did you attend? (Dickinson ’95-’97 here)
Keith Law: Franklin & Marshall, ’86-88.

Tyler: Do you think Mitch Haniger is worth a Top 100 prospect in trade?
Keith Law: Probably.

Jason: Thoughts on former colleague Jessica Mendoza’s comments this morning? Should she have to choose between being an ESPN analyst or being a Mets rep?
Keith Law: Yes, she should. You can’t do both. I don’t think she should have commented this morning, and I don’t think the producer(s) in question should have even asked her to do so.
Keith Law: I can’t work for a team. It would present me with endless, insoluble conflicts of interest.

John S: Is predicting pitchers’ health in five years is such a futile exercise that the Padres should just call up Gore?
Keith Law: I mean, you’re not wrong. I don’t know if you’re right, but I know you’re not wrong.

Dave: Can you expand on your answer re: loss of draft picks vs. loss of access to int’l market? Essentially, why do you think draft picks would be dearer?
Keith Law: Those players are two to five years older than July 2nd players and thus much closer to major-league value.

rufreshterp: Can Carter Kieboom play the outfield or is he stuck at 2B/3B? I’ve heard some scouts question his eyes in the outfield (ability to pick up the ball off the bat) so don’t know if OF is viable for him going forward.
Keith Law: Has he played the OF enough to say that? I don’t think so. He’ll be fine at 2b or 3b. I don’t think he can handle SS at all.

Dungeon Master: KLaw, really excited to see you at The Athletic, especially as the timing lined up perfectly with the expiration of my ESPN+ subscription.
Keith Law: That was a big part of my decision. I told my agent we have to delay this until Dungeon Master’s subscription to ESPN+ expires.

Nick: As an Indians fan, am I just off my rocker to expect Ethan Hankins to have a breakout season that launches him into the top 100?
Keith Law: I would bet against that right now.

Bill: Who was punished worse by MLB, the Braves for their signing infractions or the Astros for cheating in games?
Keith Law: Coppolella’s punishment seems even more egregious now with these punishments. Of course, he was accused of violating rules designed to keep owners from having to spend more money on players, and that is an eternal sin in the church of baseball.

Aaron C.: Please rank, in order of deliciousness, pancakes, waffles and French toast.
Keith Law: Waffles. You can have the other two if I get all the waffles.

Scott: Any plans to come through Louisville again this college baseball season?
Keith Law: Not on my current schedule but that can always be subject to change. Nashville and Athens are on the schedule, though.

Bryan: What are your Top 3 board games for families with young kids?
Keith Law: Depends on how young, but if you’re looking for stuff for kids old enough to play family games (not just kid games), I’d say Ticket to Ride, Splendor, and King of Tokyo.

TP: Since you are no longer working for ESPN, any plans to move out of Delaware?
Keith Law: Those two things are not related at all.
Keith Law: And no, I’m not moving.

Guest: What do you make of thr moved St Louis has made. They’ve taken talent away from the major league roster without really replacing it. Are they looking to improve this year or eyeing the future? And for the record i Dont think they will add Arenado. Just not a move they typically make
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re done.

JC: Your Donaldson writeup made the Braves current situations seem…bleak at best, but if you are the Rockies, are you even interested in Riley as part of a return? Is he the type of cheap guy with upside you
Keith Law: Colorado could certainly put together a strong package of Atlanta prospects – Waters/Pache plus two of the better arms plus one of the two catchers – that would make the deal worth their while. Riley isn’t necessary.

Bruce: I know you are a fan of Agatha Christie. Having never read any of her books, which ones would you suggest I read?
Keith Law: I think Death on the Nile is the first Poirot novel … I’d start there. It’s not necessary but it does introduce the character.

Nolan: Which is more likely for 2020: Wil Myers has an above average year at the plate, Franchy Cordero plays more than 100 games, or Manuel Margot improves his offense enough to become a 3 win player?
Keith Law: Myers least likely of the three.

Zach D: Trump tax cuts saved the 6 biggest banks $32billion lol (https://news.yahoo.com/trump-tax-cut-hands-32-171229065.html)
Keith Law: Just as his supporters intended, I’m sure.

Jason: I initially thought absolving the players was utter nonsense, but it did resonate that many of the players are not on the Astros anymore. If you punish the player, you’re punishing other teams, including teams that will play the Astros this year. I’m not sure how you solve that problem. What did you have in mind?
Keith Law: Why couldn’t you just fine the players? How does that punish their new employers?

Darren: Now that the Joker movie has won some awards and nominated in many categories for the Oscars, are you interested in seeing it? It’s similar to Black Panther that it is not just good for a comic book movie, it’s a great movie.
Keith Law: I will see it for completeness’ sake, but I don’t believe that it’s a “great movie.” I guess we’ll see.

TP: How many of the players on your Top 100 prospects list will you have evaluated in person?
Keith Law: It’s usually around 70, with some variance of course.

Tony: Keith, a real draft question to put our expectations in perspective. I have a draft eligible son here in Wisconsin. Currently theres snow and 25 degrees. He’s a RHP and we know how the cold effects pitchers arms. We are all aware of Gavin Lux and think his situation is fantastic for him, his family, and our state. However my concern is that his draft result is anomaly. Wondering with your pro background, considering the climate, the likelyhood of upper level scouts coming to games, and the lack of good “looks” for my son due to the snow, and no directors coming to see him until May, what is the reality of him having a true shot of being drafted within the first couple rounds? My concern is the deck is really stacked against him with things out of his control. Even if he is as good/better than another pitcher his age from FL or CA, I worry by the time an executive comes to see him in May that it is too late to warrant a top 2 round selection. Therefore our only hope is a potential overpay later on. True?
Keith Law: Lux, Kelenic, and Rortvedt were all Wisconsin HS kids who went on day one in the last four years. I don’t know who your son is, obviously, so I can’t comment on his outlook, but if he’s already on scouts’ radar now, he’ll be seen. My concern would be if he wasn’t that well known enough now that teams aren’t already planning to see him, since the window to scout a player in the tundra is pretty short.

Don Gately: Any plans to read Trust Exercise?
Keith Law: I don’t really plan to read many books far in advance … that’s a possible Pulitzer winner, so maybe I’ll read it. I’m just finishing up Michael Kinch’s Between Hope and Fear: A History of Vaccines and Human Immunity, which also explains how anti-vaxxers are the worst people on earth.

Bryan: Is Nolan Jones a .300/.400/.500 guy at peak or is that overly optimistic?
Keith Law: That’s really optimistic.

Daniel: Rough day for Puerto Rican managers
Keith Law: Ugh, I didn’t even think of that, but yes, it is. Bad week for diversity in a field that needed it, too.

Thomas: Hi Keith;
Congrats on your move to The Athletic (and a bonus for me since I already subscribe). Since I think it went down just as your ESPN contract was finishing, I didn’t see you do any write-up on the Jays’ signing of Ryu. Curious about your thoughts on it. Thanks!
Keith Law: Great move. I was technically on vacation when that happened – my last work day at ESPN was 12/19, then I used some vacation days and had the holidays, so we wouldn’t get the weird situation of me writing for ESPN on Monday and then showing up at the Athletic three days later or something.

Mike S: HI Keith, Do you believe trammel or grisham can be an everyday CF? The Padres seem to believe so, while the public opinion greatly differs.
Keith Law: Centerfield? They don’t think that. And I don’t either. Trammell doesn’t have the arm for it and Grisham definitely doesn’t have the range.

Aaron: Given 600 AB this year, you would put the Austin Riley strikeout total at ___.
Keith Law: 200+, but I don’t think he gets 600 AB.
Keith Law: I’d feel better about Camargo splitting the difference between 2018 and 2019 than I would about Riley hitting better enough in the majors to justify playing him.

Lars: What is a gender-neutral replacement for sir/ma’am? I know it’s a little dated, but I live in an area where it’s common to use those terms and I’d like to find a compromise (show respect, but not in a gendered way).
Keith Law: That’s an interesting question – I don’t know the answer.

Matt: Beltran is gone. Rosenthal reported it 5 min ago
Keith Law: Bear in mind that I see questions here often several minutes after you post them – I’m 23 minutes behind in the queue right now.

Don Gately: Holding hope that Walker gets the HoF nod this year?
Keith Law: I would love to see that. I voted for him.

Scherzers_Blue_Eye: The Mets get a lot of flack, but how poorly run are the Rockies, already looking to deal Arenado a year after his mega-deal?
Keith Law: They’re probably the front office with whose moves and strategy I disagree most right now. Not saying I’m right, by any stretch, but that I think I don’t understand what they’re doing, at least more so than I do for other orgs.

Noah: Why wohld the Rays give Matthew Liberatore up seemingly so easily. Any red flags?
Keith Law: No red flags. I’ve looked into it.

Extra Spicy: With three managerial openings and Dusty Baker still wanting to manage, do you think he gets one of the jobs? And do you think he’ll be good at it?
Keith Law: Given where we are in the calendar, yes, I do, and I would like to think – given his improvement each stop – he would indeed be good at it.

John: Nolan Arenado has a OPS of 770 to 880 away from Coors the past 3 yrs w/ a batting avg around 260-275. Does that mean he’s a Moustakas or Chapman offensive type talent if he gets traded?
Keith Law: There’s 25 years of data now that you can’t just look at the road stats of Rockies’ hitters to project what they’ll do away from Coors (or Mile High). I think he’ll continue to hit at a well above-average level.

Kevin: Can we get Jim Leyland back as a manager just to get shots of him smoking cigarettes in the dugout?
Keith Law: He’d probably be Juuling.

Jeff: Which Corbin will have the better 2020 as a starter – Burnes or Martin? Patrick will obviously top the list.
Keith Law: Still very high on Martin when he returns, but that probably won’t be in 2020. Burnes I think has a mechanical adjustment to make to get back to where he was in 2018, but I don’t see any reason he can’t do so.

Grant: Judas Priest got passed over for the Hall of Fame. I mean come on…
Keith Law: The R&R Hall is kind of a joke. It’s like if the Baseball Hall didn’t have the writers vote, and just used the crony committees for every selection. Priest, Pat Benatar, Motorhead, and Soundgarden were all snubbed and all have excellent cases (Soundgarden especially as influencers, and I guess Benatar for similar reasons as the rare woman in rock, although I’ll never get over how bad the “Love is a Battlefield” video is).

Matt W: Any chance Eduardo Perez would still take the Mets job? Otherwise it seems like it’ll be Jeff Wilpon as Mr. Manager
Keith Law: I’d support that.

Larry: Fangraphs mentioned Corbin Carroll’s exit velocity being surprisingly high. Do you think he has 25+ home run upside? If so, that probably makes him a superstar, no?
Keith Law: He might be a superstar, yes. He has more power than people expect given his height. I had him #4 in the draft class for a reason (that reason being I think he’s a star).

addoeh: If you gave me a choice for “Emerson Hancock, college baseball pitcher or signer of the Declaration of Independence” I would have chosen the latter.
Keith Law: I swear I made that exact joke to Emma Span the other day.
Keith Law: Three of the four 1-1 candidates have great names. Hancock is one. Spencer Torkelson is another. Austin Martin is practically a British luxury car brand. Poor JT Ginn is so ordinary in comparison.

Ridley: Do you watch any online/YouTube cooking shows? We’ve been, um, binging “Binging with Babish” and “What’s Eating Dan” and I find myself enjoying them far more than anything that’s being broadcast these days.
Keith Law: I haven’t – the only cooking show I’ve watched in the last year is GBBO.

Robert: Watching Luis Robert, I am impressed by how hard he plays (scoring from 2nd on a sac fly, beating out infield grounders, etc.). If he wasn’t so physically gifted, would he be more likely to get the “grinder” label?
Keith Law: Well, that’s one reason he’s not tabbed as a “grinder,” but there’s a more prominent reason I can think of…

Dan: Unless Costco has become a purveyor of high-quality meat, I would really suggest not purchasing pork belly there. Find a local small producer and support them. Yes it will be quite a bit more expensive, but meat should be. There’s a reason most of humanity didn’t eat it in large quantities until pretty recently.
Keith Law: I missed that but yes, I don’t buy much red meat these days anyway, but when I do it’s from Whole Foods or a local butcher. That’s a privilege I have, of course, but also I’d rather spend more per pound but buy less of it in total.

Drew_Tomlinson: Where do you think board games go from here? Already some discussion the bubble is bursting.
Keith Law: I haven’t heard any such discussion. I do think there are too many games getting released, but that’s not the same thing; the level of demand is nowhere close to its potential.

Mike: Is organic fruit BS ?
Keith Law: I mean, it’s organic, it’s just not any better for you. Buy what tastes best. That’s probably local; it might be organic but doesn’t have to be. I think organic makes the most difference in eggs, to be honest; unless you can get eggs from a local farm organic eggs will probably give you the highest quality (especially the strongest membrane around the yolk, so they stay intact while cooking).

Dave: Losing their 1st and 2nd round picks effectively tanks their entire drafts, right? Something like 60% of the total slot $ is tied up in those two picks.
Keith Law: Yes, teams that have had this situation recently have gotten nothing from their drafts: the Cubs in 2016 and Cardinals in 2017 had zero day-one picks between them, and neither has produced a big leaguer or a significant prospect yet.

Matt: Favorite Richard Russo book?
Keith Law: 1. Empire Falls 2. Straight Man 3. Nobody’s Fool 4. The Risk Pool

KT: do you plan on watching 1917?
Keith Law: I plan to see the remaining four Best Picture nominees I haven’t seen – that, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, and Ford v. Ferrari – even though I can’t say I’m terribly excited about any of them. I just like to talk about the awards, and to do that you have to see all or most of the nominees. I will see all the international & animated nominees too.

Matt: Chris Shaw anything more than replacement-level in San Fran?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Jake: Do you find any benefit from self-journaling?
Keith Law: I have never done so, sorry.

Matt: Mendoza just released a statement saying that being an employee of the Mets doesn’t shape her opinion LOL. She must be reading the chat.
Keith Law: The criticism of those comments has been very widespread.

Chris: Hi Keith, Based on initial pro scouting looks are their any recent draft picks that you have heard being ranked higher than where they were picked last summer?
Keith Law: You’ll see in a month.
Keith Law: Actually it might be the week of 2/24, rather than 2/17. It’s my editors’ call but I believe it’ll be the former (later).

Mark: What do you see as the most likely role for Jazz Chisholm?
Keith Law: Star at shortstop.

Ben Z: Florence Pugh is now signed up to be in a bunch of Marvel movies. Let us wallow in sadness.
Keith Law: Well, good for her for getting paid, I guess.

Nolan: Keith, I live in a capitol city with truly dismal bagel options. I’ve toyed around with the idea of trying to make my own (on a small scale, at least at first) but ideally I’d like to replicate Montreal style bagels, which need a wood oven. Do you know of any way to replicate that process without actually having a wood oven?
Keith Law: I have made NY-style bagels with a baking soda solution for boiling (no lye, that seemed excessive) and was happy with the results, although I clearly need work on shaping.

Turner : Hi Keith. I’m leading an after school board game club and would like to add a few games from your list. Any suggestions for 10-14 year olds that can be played in an hour or less?
Keith Law: Any of the games I mentioned above would be good for this group. You could expand a bit with Carcassonne, Wingspan (if you can find it), Pandemic, New Bedford, Sagrada, Azul.

Will: Favorite Rush era?
Keith Law: I don’t think of them in terms of eras; I thought the Chronicles two-disc greatest hits set was incredible, but didn’t listen to anything after Roll the Bones (which was not good).

Jay: Proper response to Grant’s R&R HOF comment was that if they think they can keep Priest out they’ve got another thing coming (sorry)
Keith Law: Nice.

Guest: What is your favorite restaurant in the Phoenix area? -Tom J. Gilbert AZ
Keith Law: The Hillside Spot, Crepe Bar, FnB.

Porker: Not to mention, this administration removed quality standards on pork, so all the more important to know where it’s sourced.
Keith Law: The rollbacks in food quality, food safety, and environmental regulations should be the ideal talking point for whoever the Democratic candidate is, because those rules affect every single American, and rollbacks disproportionately hurt those less well-off who lack the resources or even the options that others have (to, say, buy meat at Whole Foods).

Mike Rizzo: If I offer Rutledge, Kieboom amd say tres barrera get me Kris Bryant?
Keith Law: No.

Frank: On your top 10 pros to be traded, how highly rated are they? Are we talking top 50, 100 or fringe level. Thanks
Keith Law: I think only two were on my top 100.
Keith Law: were/would be/whatever, it’s late

Chris: Which is more difficult to learn/teach: Wingspan or Taverns of Tiefenthal?
Keith Law: Taverns is a bit more involved because you have a lot to think about, but I found the turns really rolled (pun intended) once we got into it.

Ben Z: Holy god Joker is not a great movie. Phoenix is admirably going for it, but hes basically Freddie Quill from The Master (an actual masterpiece) but in a Scorsese rip off with no intellectual coherence.
Keith Law: Enough critics and people whose opinions on movies I value and trust have said this, or something similar to it, that I have my doubts that it is worth the accolades it’s received. I’ll see for myself soon.

John: Do you mind if your fans ask you questions about prospects under your articles on FB?
Keith Law: I don’t mind questions at all, but bear in mind I can’t answer every question I’m asked across all fora – I just don’t have time.

James: Any thoughts on the record breaking salary arbitrations? Bellinger, Betts, etc.?
Keith Law: Good. Owners are rolling in it. The players should get paid too.

Ryan: Per your recommendation, my wife and I had a date night just sitting at a bar playing 7 Wonders Duel. It was really enjoyable, thank you!
Keith Law: Love it. I feel like I see folks playing games in public more often now than I did five years ago – but maybe I just didn’t notice it before I was looking.

Brian: What did you eat at the meal at the Love that made it your favorite? I really enjoy it there, but it’s never struck me as being truly great (like Vernick or Vetri), but more very good.
Keith Law: Vernick remains the worst high-end meal I’ve had in Philly. An abject disaster, with one dish coming out burned. It was a process failure.
Keith Law: We had a pasta dish and a chocolate mousse, neither of which is on the menu now.

John-MN: I home make bagels with the baking soda bath too, you also want to get diastatic malt from a home brewing shop as well for the water bath, both for color and flavoring.
Keith Law: Interesting, haven’t heard that.
Keith Law: Thank you.

Dylan: How long does it take you to write a top 100 or top 50 prospect rankings
Keith Law: The top 100 takes about 4-5 weeks in total.

Kyle: what is your suggestion for someone easing alcohol use? AA? Other program? Therapist?
Keith Law: That’s definitely a question for a professional – ask a doctor.

Matt P: What specifically drew you to Vermont and is it the same thing(s) that keep you there?
Keith Law: Well, I’m not in Vermont, so … nothing? Also it’s really cold up there. There isn’t enough maple syrup in the world to overcome that.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions & for reading. Stay tuned for updates on the top 100, and remember you can pre-order my next book, The Inside Game, right now via Harper Collins or wherever fine books are sold.

Starting at 1 pm ET. I have two new pieces up at the Athletic this week: my introductory post and today’s column on some of what I look for when I evaluate players.

Keith Law: I dreamt that I was dreaming, I was wired to a clock. Klawchat.

Shaun: Does Clint Frazier bring back more in trade than a low level arm or nearer term reliever?
Keith Law: I think his trade value has largely evaporated over the last two years.

Ben: If you’re the Twins, would you part with any of Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Larnach for a #2-3 starter? I am assuming no #1s are available unless it’s a ridiculous package. Given their playoff annihilation I wonder whether a mid rotation guy will push the team to the next level.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t trade Kirilloff; I probably wouldn’t deal Lewis even with his swing issues. The second two I would deal for a mid-rotation guy without hesitation, although I agree that’s not really their need right now.

Aaron C.: Who does Klaw give the A’s 2B job to? Barreto, Mateo, Neuse or Pinder? These are all depressing choices.
Keith Law: Yes, yes they are.

PhillyJake: Has Ben Cherington been abducted by aliens? Seems overly quiet on the North shore of the Allegheny.
Keith Law: What should he have done? I’m really not clear on what moves he should have made already, with a bunch of decent free agents still on the market.

Aaron C.: Your favorite (restaurant) meal of 2019 was…?
Keith Law: 1. The Love, Philadelphia 2. Friday Saturday Sunday, Philadelphia 3. Juniper & Ivy, San Diego 4. The Purple Pig, Chicago 5. Brewery Bhavana, Raleigh

Deke: Noticed on Twitter you asked to be omitted from someone’s “best of baseball Twitter” bracket poll. Why didn’t you want to participate?
Keith Law: Why would I lend my name to that exercise? I don’t get anything from it, and the ‘bracket’ was almost entirely white men.

Alex: As a Braves fan, I am mostly feeling bloodyminded and hoping that MLB’s penalties against the Astros are at least as harsh as they were against the Braves. But the rational part of my brain accepts the propriety of fitting punishment to crime. So… in your view, normatively, what *should* be the punishment levied against the Astros and Red Sox?
Keith Law: I think what the Astros and Red Sox are accused of doing is worse than what the Braves did in the international market, but I also strongly believe MLB doesn’t see it that way for a variety of reasons, not least of which is that the Braves committed the greater baseball sin of trying to pay players more money.

xxx(yyy): any (brief?) thoughts on the upcoming season of Top Chef? will you be bringing back your episode reviews?
Keith Law: I have not watched the show in three years and have said several times I’m not doing reviews any more. They take up way too much time.

Arnold: Just wanted to say congrats on joining The Athletic. That’s been my favorite place to read about sports for the past year. I look forward to seeing your stuff there. My question…is there any Giants prospect without any major league time yet, who may have an impact on the team this year, perhaps later in the year?
Keith Law: It wouldn’t shock me to see Bart in the majors by August, if he’s healthy. That’s it, though.

Ray : What can one expect from Nick Solak in 2020? Will he play everyday in the Rangers lineup?
Keith Law: Think he’s an extra guy, not a regular. At the moment I don’t see playing time for him anyway.

Trey: Keith – Congrats on joining The Athletic! (I am a happy subscriber:) Cubs Q: given their current ‘near ready’ minor league talent (not much), current roster, and owner induced payroll cap, any chance the cubs can regain elite top 5 mlb status this year or next? Other than Ricketts giving Theo another $50M-75M to spend each of the next two offseasons, what can he do?
Keith Law: Money is the only real way out for the Cubs right now, who are good-but-maybe-not-good-enough at the major-league level and have a bottom-tier farm system without much trade capital.

TomBruno23: Did the Ricketts spend all of their money on the GOP and Wrigley to the point where we are to believe all they can do is all players on NRI deals?
Keith Law: That’s what they’re selling. Your choice whether to buy it.

Joe: Is there a provision for raising the luxury tax threshold? It seems that, with salaries for superstars (deservedly) rising, the threshold should increase to reflect this.
Keith Law: Yes, it went up $2 million for 2020, and goes up $2 million more for 2021.

Krontz: Can Nolan Jones stay at 3b for most of his MLB career? Or a corner OF/1b move likely?
Keith Law: I see a nonzero chance he stays at third.

Jason: You identified changeups, splitters, and cutters as out-pitches for opposite-side hitters. My understanding of the pitch movements is that changeups fall off toward the arm side, splitters tend to break straight down, and cutters break toward the glove side (though I was never a pitcher and stopped playing in junior high, so I recognize I could be off). Given the disparate natures of those pitches, why are they all so effective in getting out opposite-side hitters?
Keith Law: Nothing to do with movement; everything to do with how the pitches appear out of the pitcher’s hand, and whether they resemble fastballs or breaking balls.

barbeach: KLAW: Happy New Year! Congrats on the move to The Athletic…it prompted me to subscribe. Do you see a path for Deivi Garcia to crack the NYY major league roster this year? Thanks as always.
Keith Law: Yes, I do. Cole is locked in for 30 starts, but Tanaka has long pitched with an elbow issue, Paxton gets hurt quite a bit, Severino missed all of 2019, Montgomery is just barely back from TJ. There will be starts available.

David: Congratulations on the new job Keith! Like you, I spend a lot of time working from home but struggle sometimes separating home life from work. I feel like I’m always doing both (fitting in trips to the grocery store in the middle of the work day; doing work in the evening and night.) How do you balance your time? Do you struggle with time management like I do?
Keith Law: Don’t worry so much about ‘time management’ and focus instead on what you need to accomplish each day. FWIW, I use non-work things to break up my work day, since it’s hard for me to just sit and write for hours upon hours without a respite.

Tariq: It appears that the A’s swung wildly and missed on consecutive top 10 picks in 17 and 18 in Austin Beck and Kyler Murray – do you think that it was a flawed approach from the start or do you understand their high risk/high reward in retrospect? Congrats on the new job!
Keith Law: Two different picks, two different processes. I still don’t think they blew it on Murray … nobody thought he’d become that good an NFL prospect at the time he was drafted. The criticism, if any, would be that they didn’t accurately assess his desire to play baseball.

Hank: Hey Keith! How do you view Tucker Davidson and Kyle Muller and will they contribute in 2020? Thanks!
Keith Law: Davidson’s a fifth starter, Muller more a mid-rotation guy, would guess neither contributes much in 2020 given who’s ahead of them.

Trey: Hi Keith – Any plans on updating your top 100 books this year? And, any spy novel recommendations (a more modern Le Carre perhaps)?
Keith Law: That list requires a lot of work, and right now I don’t have a lot of free time.

Alex: Do you think the 3b from Vanderbilt (Lewis) can play SS at the big league level?
Keith Law: If you mean Austin Martin, I have only seen him play an excellent 3b, but never seen him at SS. He’ll play short this spring, and we’ll get our answer.

Roger: You appear to have been right all along about Austin Riley, but my question is if you were Atlanta would you trade him before his value completely tanks?
Keith Law: He played nearly a whole summer in the majors and didn’t hit at all, with pitch data that really doesn’t help his cause. His value is already at a local minimum.

Jim: First off, welcome again to The Athletic! What do you see as what’s going on with Donaldson? Based on what some sources (e.g., MLBTraderumors) are saying, it looks to me like it’s not so much waiting out a bidding war as the market falling apart because nobody wants to meet his demands. Thanks!
Keith Law: No idea, sorry. That is not an area I cover, and that hasn’t changed with the job. We have plenty of other writers who’ll wade in the rumor mire.

Christopher: You work for the Athletic now????
Keith Law: Big, if true.

BigDaddeh: If the Cubs put Yu Darvish’s remaining contract on irrevocable waivers, would someone take it? Is it not even underwater anymore given the new market climate?
Keith Law: Teams would fight to take it.

TomBruno23: Latest episode of The Inquiry, “Why was Qasem Soleimani killed?”, is a clear, concise and informative listen on the current situation.
Keith Law: Of course it is – The Inquiry (from the BBC) is consistently smart despite being so concise.

David (Denver): The Rockies are going to sell way too low on Arenado, aren’t they? I’m enthused for yet another underwhelming return of young pitching that never develops.
Keith Law: I don’t understand jumping to extend him and THEN trying to trade him. It looks indecisive.

tempo: What are your thoughts on two of my favorite metal bands – Slayer and System of a Down?
Keith Law: I enjoy peak Slayer, basically RIB through Seasons. By the late ’90s they’d really stopped producing anything novel, unfortunately, but that’s true for all the ’80s thrash icons.

ryan: keith, its awesome your with the athletic now. what made you switch jobs?
Keith Law: I have already written quite a bit about that in my newsletter.

Alan: If the Sox move Mookie to LAD and Lux is off the table what is a good return package in your opinion?
Keith Law: If I’m the Red Sox I am insisting on May and one of the catchers in the deal, at a bare minimum. It’s Mookie Fucking Betts, people.

Dee Arby: If Moniak wasn’t taken #1, how far do you think he would have slid down the draft board?
Keith Law: He was going in the top 5-6 picks anyway … he was pretty famous, hit well enough at showcases, and scouts liked the kid’s makeup a lot (too much).

Anthony: Thoughts on the White Sox offseason? Been incredibly busy, but does it translate into anything in 2020 and beyond?
Keith Law: Yes, I think it does.
Keith Law: I also don’t think they’re done.

Kyle B: Do you think there’s going to be a work stoppage when this CBA expires?
Keith Law: I will know a lot more about that once I get into this job some more and start my reporting on the labor talks.

Shlomo Zinger: Thoughts on Mike King?
Keith Law: Reliever.

Tinker: What do you think about Chris Shaw and his future? His career path / numbers remind me of Max Muncy!
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s more than an emergency callup.

John: Hi Keith. Loved Smart Baseball. Can’t wait for your next book. Do you see Loaisiga or any of their other young arms being viable bullpen replacements for Betances or will the Yanks need to sign/trade for another power arm in the pen? Thanks.
Keith Law: Given all of Loaisiga’s arm problems, can he work back to back days like most relievers do? I don’t know the answer but I think it’d be an issue for him.

Salty: Not sure if you saw the story of Lassiter vs NY Yankees. Was wondering if you’ve ever seen a grievance taken that far, and if it reached dismissal status only because he was representing himself.
Keith Law: It wasn’t a grievance, but a lawsuit, and to be honest it sounds like Lassiter isn’t well and might need real help. The media coverage I’ve seen seems to be making fun of him (it’s easy, he’s claiming this massive conspiracy against him).

NYYMatt99: Do you agree with Manfred cutting minor league teams? He seems to be doing everything possible to stop baseball from growing
Keith Law: That’s not a yes/no question. I wrote about it October for ESPN and will certainly revisit the topic for the Athletic because it’s a lot more complicated than “cutting minor league teams.”

Chris: Think the Mets deal Dom Smith or he remains a bench bat this season?
Keith Law: I have to think they trade him … he’s more valuable in trade than as a 300 AB (if that) bench player.

Appa Yip Yip: How do you think the Jays starting pitching looks over the next couple of years? They have Ryu, hopefully Pearson, then an amorphous mass of dudes at AAA lead by probably Anthony Kay. How do you see it shaking out?
Keith Law: Lot of guys who could be average or better if healthy, but who have dicey health outlooks, including Ryu. Murphy might be #2 behind Pearson if we knew he’d stay healthy.

Mike: Do you get the same royalty when Amazon drops the price of your bookin the Kindle store?
Keith Law: No, it’s a percentage of the purchase price.

John G: Clarke Schmidt or Michael King as Yankees’ long-term no. 4 or 5?
Keith Law: Schmidt might be a starter; King is not.

jayB: Thoughts on the new I lnfield Outs stats? Other than Baez was still robbed in GG voting
Keith Law: Mike Petriello pointed out that it’s useful but incomplete, and you can see that in some of the leaders.
Keith Law: A lot of batted ball types aren’t included.

Kuipers HR: Obviously, I’d rather Indians keep Lindor. But if they’re not going to put even half the $ they’ve saved into team, trading him is next less-worse option. No?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Bobby Northside: When will we see SP throw 250+ innings again? How can we make it happen?
Keith Law: Never. Even a pitcher who might be capable of doing so will not be allowed to do so because you’re better off with relievers facing hitters for the first time than starters facing hitters for the 3rd/4th time.

Moe Mentum: There’s a 3rd Siani brother on the horizon. Is he on your radar yet, or is it too early still?
Keith Law: He’s next year.

Kevin W.: Does our country (and democracy) ever recover from the last 4 years?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Ben: Just finished Confederacy of Dunces and loved it. The whole time I was reading it, I couldn’t help but picture Ignatius as Buster Bluth. Did you have anyone in mind for his character as you read it?
Keith Law: I read it ~20 years ago, so I don’t remember thinking he was anything but Ignatius himself.

Kevin W.: What happened to Aubrey huff?
Keith Law: Nothing. This is who he’s always been.

John G: Why aren’t the Rockies talking trades for Jon Gray, not just Arenado? Dude seems prime for a restart somewhere to shine
Keith Law: I agree – he’s done about as well as you could have hoped with the Rockies but I could see him going somewhere else and exploding like Cole did with Houston.

Mike D: Why would Cleveland want to shop Lindor and Clevinger instead of building around them? Does not seem to make sense to me.
Keith Law: Then they’d have to spend money.

Kevin W.: Will you continue free agent write-ups at the athletic?
Keith Law: Yes, depending on how significant the player and contract are.

Mart Yanh: Law! Congrats on the new job! Do u think Mookie Betts *wants* to remain in Boston long term?
Keith Law: He wants to go to free agency to maximize his value. That’s his right as a player.

Andy: Does the proposed shortening of the draft help college baseball (more kids coming and staying longer) or make it worse (top prospects more likely to go the minors.) I know it’ll definitely be a whole lot worse for the college kids with less senior signs.
Keith Law: The better senior signs will still get signed; the worst senior signs will no longer have automatic paths into pro ball, but their odds of seeing the majors were minuscule. They could go play indy ball or in this new “Dream League” if that proposal came to fruition, and if they do well enough, they’d get opportunities in pro ball. Senior signs only typically get $1000 as a bonus, and then the pathetic first-year minor league salary, so it’s not as if MLB is getting rid of lucrative jobs here.

Eric: Just a statement for the MAGA people: If you support the troops, you should be vehemently against war, especially ones based off ego and narcissism.
Keith Law: The best way to support the troops is to bring them all home.

Mike D: Are you heading to ST this year? Florida or Arizona?
Keith Law: I go to both every year.

Moshe Rabeinu: How far away is Florial?
Keith Law: His pitch recognition hasn’t gotten better in the last year-plus, and he’s been hurt, so right now I don’t see what his role is in the majors.

Blangadanger: Had a chance to play Parks over the holidays. An excellent, quick and immersive game with gorgeous art of US National Parks. Have you had a chance to play?
Keith Law: I haven’t, but it was on my list of 2019 games I wanted to try but never got to play. I’ve heard great things.

Dirk Gently: Let’s say MLB suspends Jeff Luhnow for a year — how do they keep Luhnow from simply working remotely, directing his assistants on what to do, etc.? Are they going to be able to spot check cell phones/emails? And would it be that hard for Luhnow to do is job remotely that way?
Keith Law: Yes, they would be able to check or ask for cell phone records, emails, etc.

Evan: Are your prospect packages going to follow a similar format as they did in ESPN, or will you change it up?
Keith Law: Editorial decision. The content will be very similar.

Adam: hey Keith, subscribed to your newsletter but after your most recent e-mail went out. Is there any way to read the post online?
Keith Law: On the signup page there’s a “letter archive” link.

Jason: Will Monte Harrison amount to anything?
Keith Law: The odds are very much against him … the approach is nowhere near good enough, despite the tools.

Nick: What do you make of JD Davis season last year? His defensive struggles aside, do you think he continues to make an ascension to potential star?
Keith Law: No, I think that was his peak.

Big Fan: Hi Keith, congrats on the move! Do you have any insight into where or when Josh Donaldson will sign?
Keith Law: No, that is not and has never been something I cover.

Nick: Dom Smith for Tarik Skubal. Who says no?
Keith Law: Pretty sure the Tigers would say no.
Keith Law: Skubal might be their best pitching prospect at this moment.

Sean: Bart, Ramos and Hjelle are being sold to us Giants fans as the first wave of the future. Should I get excited or pump the brakes a bit?
Keith Law: Their system is improved, but not yet good. They’re a draft or two away from that, and they didn’t add any prospects at the deadline last year, I assume because the team had a bit of a mirage run of contention.

Grant: Which books coming out in 2020 are you most excited to read?
Keith Law: I don’t really track those unless it’s an author I especially like (Jasper Fforde has one coming).

PA Prospects: What high schoolers will you be watching locally this spring?
Keith Law: Near me, probably nobody. Austin Hendrick is a prospect but on the other side of the state from me.

Andy: Bring them home, and then fund the programs to help them with their physical and mental well being.
Keith Law: We both know that’ll never happen. You’re asking politicians to spend money that doesn’t produce results they can show off for the cameras.
Keith Law: Evidence-based treatments for PTSD etc. exist, but they’re tough sells to constituents.

Jesse B: Do you think Honeywell can still throw the screwball? Do you think he can still be a starter?
Keith Law: After two missed years, he’s probably going to end up in relief.

BenL: Congrats on the new gig, Klaw! Just a housekeeping question: Klawchats to continue here, be moved to the Athletic’s site as this new venture takes shape, combination of both? Thanks, as always
Keith Law: Klawchats are here and will stay here for the foreseeable future.

Matt W: I agree the Mets should free Dom Smith but with their depth as thin as it is, can they really afford to part with more of it? Have you seen their list of ST invites?? Egads.
Keith Law: It’s OK, they have Tebow.

John: How much of the Phillies issues in the draft do you think are down to bad draft evaluation (ie, you didn’t love the picks at the start), poor player development after they drafted the guys, or just bad luck? The poor drafts have obviously really hindered their teardown/rebuild
Keith Law: They’ve chosen poorly more than anything else.

Erik: Awkwafina’s gonna lose Best Actress to another cosplayer. Will the Academy ever change?
Keith Law: That’s always the safe bet, right? Who played a historical figure, or played a character with a disability, or played a character who was LGBT+? I only get worked up about the Oscars because they mean money: if your film wins something, more people will go see it, and more money for good films should mean more money for good films in the future.

Dave: Trump: hawk or dove? Displays both at times
Keith Law: LOL, don’t fall for it, Dave.

Bradley: Thoughts on the Luis Robert deal? Seems to be a good deal for the player’s long term financial secure and nice to not see blatant service time manipulation from a team. Win win?
Keith Law: Win win, mostly. He has no leverage in this situation and the team has it all, but he did fairly well for a player with 0 MLB games, and I’m glad to see the White Sox pushing this model of paying prospects early.

PD: Have you addressed how your coverage with interact with Sickels?
Keith Law: It doesn’t. My coverage is independent of anything else at the Athletic. I’ll do more or less the same stuff I did for ESPN+, just at a new site, and over time adding some additional types of content like labor coverage.

dan: Tony Gonsolin Future starter or Reliever?
Keith Law: Yes, he will be one of those things.

jeff: does skubal come up before mize?
Keith Law: Mize finished 2019 hurt, and didn’t look right just before he got hurt, so right now Skubal is closer to his debut despite Mize’s pedigree and superior pitch mix.

Ron: Twins need a first baseman. Wouldn’t trying to work a trade with the Mets for Dom Smith make sense? Better than trying to sign Donaldson? What would it take?
Keith Law: What do they have that the Mets would value for 2020? The Mets are trying to win now, but so are the Twins. Do the Twins have surplus somewhere I’m not thinking of? Maybe if a third team is involved and the Twins send a prospect to team 3 and get Smith, so team 3 sends the Mets whatever it is they need (pitching?).

Brian: Let’s be honest, the guy that claimed he would cancel the subscription to The Athletic that he doesn’t currently have because of your hiring will be tough to top.
Keith Law: That was quite special.

Kevin: Do you think Dalbec will be the Red Sox opening day 1B in 2020?
Keith Law: I do not.

jeff: Gore over 125 IP in 2020? rookie of the year?
Keith Law: Unlikely, and almost certainly not.

Todd: Are Mets fans over estimating Steve Cohen as an owner? Just because someone has ample means doesnt necessarily mean they’re a great baseball owner
Keith Law: I think Mets fans are latching on to the fact that he is Not a Wilpon.

Turner : If DL Hall were to improve his control this year, would he have #2 starter potential?
Keith Law: He has #2 starter potential already, if he improves both his command and his control.

Sam: Will you be active at all in the comments section of your articles?
Keith Law: No, again, no time for that. I’d rather chat here and leave it at that.

Eric: How worried would you be about giving a 4 year deal to 34 year old Donaldson? Better than trading prospects for Bryant?
Keith Law: Someone asked earlier at what point Donaldson should just take the best deal … if he has viable four-year offers on the table, he should take one. Given his age and some of his injury history, that feels like more than he should have reasonably expected from the market.
Keith Law: I’d rather trade something for Bryant, but of course we don’t know what that ‘something’ is.

Danial: Looking forward to more klawtent; does your new job come with new leeway or restrictions and how can we expect that to be reflected in your work?
Keith Law: I don’t know how to answer that other than to say keep reading. I don’t think I have more leeway in prospect coverage. ESPN never restricted me there.

Ben: Theoretical Question: Your world series window is the next 1-2 years. If you have a prospect who is guaranteed to be a lights-out reliever right now and has the potential to be a top-end starter but isn’t ready yet, do you use them in the bullpen now before your window closes, or screw the window and think about the best use of the asset?
Keith Law: David Price 2008. I use the guy in relief right now, judiciously (like, don’t burn him out by using him three days in a row).

Todd: Keith, why do republicans just deny climate change? Is it strictly business related denial?
Keith Law: The Party itself? Yes. Climate change mitigation is bad for many industries, including coal, oil/gas, mining, and much manufacturing, so their opposition to it is a financial matter – they do not face future costs of a warmed and damaged planet.

Mark R: Any decent Disney eats this year?
Keith Law: We ate at the Holiday Festival kiosks more than anything else.
Keith Law: That’s probably it for Disneyworld trips for me for a while, since I no longer have the magic pass.

Oliver: It’s kind of weird that the Padres traded for Taylor Trammell and Trent Grisham then blocked each of them in LF for the next two years with Tommy Pham. With Myers stuck (sigh) in RF because Hosmer is entrenched at 1B (heavy sigh), can either play good enough CF defense to make up for the shortcomings of Myers and Pham?
Keith Law: Myers ends up on the bench or released. He’s not blocking anybody.

Jason S: In 2025, is Kelenic, Rodriguez and Marte the best OF in baseball?
Keith Law: The easy answer is ‘no,’ since 1) that’s five years away and 2) we have no idea if all three will stay healthy and develop up to their potential.

Rico: What are your expectations for Gavin Lux this year and long-term?
Keith Law: I think he’s an All-Star in the long term, an above-average regular right now, and the best argument for the Dodgers not trading for Lindor this winter.

Rico: Benintendi struggled last year after a breakout 2018. Any reason for the increasing K% and lack of power? What do you expect going forward?
Keith Law: I don’t know what’s gone wrong with him; in a year when everyone seemed to hit the ball harder and hit for more power, he hit for less. It’s easy to say it’s in his swing – there is some of that – but his approach, esp vs LHP, has gone backwards too.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all for the kind words on my move to the Athletic, and for continuing to show up here for Klawchats. I’ll keep these going on Thursdays until we get to spring training and travel gets in the way. In the meantime, watch this space or my email newsletter for further announcements on upcoming content!

My latest ESPN+ post covers a few stray transactions from the winter meetings, including the Nomar Mazara trade and the Tanner Roark signing, and my latest Paste column reviews the new games I saw at PAX Unplugged.

Keith Law: Klawchat. When you gonna ring it?

Moe Mentum: Any predictions on where Odubel Herrera will be when spring training starts – or ends?
Keith Law: Not with the Phillies. I wonder if some awful team – the Tigers, the Orioles – will decide he’s worth the backlash, because he has ability and they’d probably just be able to take him off the Phils’ hands for nothing. (I wouldn’t do so, but I’m saying someone probably will.)

JK: What changed from last year to this year to spur so much more activity at Winter Meetings?
Keith Law: I don’t quite know, but I’m thrilled. The Yankees getting in heavy helped, as did the Nats winning the World Series and making a serious, immediate push to retain one of their two big FA. Mike Rizzo doesn’t hesitate when he wants a player – he signed Corbin early last year, and signed Jayson Werth once upon a time while I was between the airport and the winter meetings on day one (or zero). He also probably gave this a nudge.

Delco Debo: Based on the Cole & Rendon contracts, is it fair to say that Harper & Machado deals do not age terribly & neither team should feel buyer’s remorse (contrary to what local Philly sports radio might be spewing)? Phillies & Padres both get longer tail of players primes.
Keith Law: Neither team should have any regrets about those contracts. Sports radio takes shouldn’t dictate what anyone thinks about sports.

Josh L from Garnet Valley: In the event you’ve read, would you recommend Dune?
Keith Law: The first book is wonderful. Everything that comes after it is trash.

Tony: It feels like the Phillies are throwing away so much value by constantly moving Kingery around defensively, and now with the Gregorious signing, there’s talk he’ll be playing third instead of second. Why won’t they just put him at second and let him excel?
Keith Law: That’s also what I would do, but Segura has never played 3b anywhere in pro ball. They needed a shortstop, so they got one, and now they have two second basemen and no current third baseman. If Segura can play third, problem solved. If not, they may put Kingery at third, where his arm doesn’t play, and now we have a new problem.

Josh L from Garnet Valley: What are your favorite modern christmas songs? Feel like the Pogues Fairytale of NY is criminally underrated
Keith Law: I just heard that one for the first time the other day, as it turns out. I still say Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas” is the best new Christmas song of the last ~40 years.

Dave: Lots of rumors that Kyle Seager is on the block. Is it reasonable that Seattle can get anything useful for him, or is this just salary dump territory?
Keith Law: About $40 million left for two years, probably projects to 4-5 total wins in that period. If they chip in a little cash, I think they could get real value back.

Mike: Is it reasonable to think Andrew Vaughn’s ceiling is Freddie Freeman?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s the shape of Vaughn’s production if he hits his ceiling.

Deke: If you’re the Rangers, is it Donaldson or bust now? What do you do with the rest of this offseason?
Keith Law: He’s an ideal fit, but does it have to be him or nothing else? What about upgrading other spots, like second base?

Julio Rodriguez: Where do I rank as a prospect out of these options? Top-5, top-10, top-20, top-50, or top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: I won’t publish prospect rankings until probably the start of February, and I’m not going to spoil them now.

JR: You mentioned the Porcello signing for the Mets in your recent recap, but not Wacha. Guessing you view it same as me – decent depth move at a reasonable price with the hope he bounces back, but easy to cut him if he’s done.
Keith Law: Wacha came after I wrote that, I think. He’s also missed chunks of two straight seasons and last year was a disaster. Bit of a flier, low cost for them. Not a bad gamble.

Greg P: KLaw – any of the Rule 5 picks going to amount to anything or is it just a waste of time?
Keith Law: I wrote up the two picks I liked in the column linked at the top of this post. The rule 5 draft remains largely a waste of time.

Kyle KS: How do you treat Hyun-jin Ryu in free agency if you’re running a team? Plan on 25 starts a year out of a really good pitcher and anything over is just bonus?
Keith Law: Maybe put him on the peak Pedro plan, where he’s getting an extra day of rest every time the schedule permits it, maybe skipping a start here or there, to try to get 150-160 great innings and have him in October.

Sam: What was the difference between this year and the last few where things seemed to return to normal on the free agency market and not waiting until spring training for many of the top tier guys to sign?
Keith Law: One other hypothesis: Boras had the top 3 free agents, plus a few other major ones. It wasn’t Boras vs Lozano, like last year. Maybe one agent controlling the top end of the market made a difference.

Alex: The Giants effectively purchased a first round pick for $12M. What are your thoughts on the strategy and do you think teams will do this more? Do you think MLB has an issue with this because one of the argument against trading draft picks was they will be sold to the high market teams?
Keith Law: I think MLB has an issue with it because it reveals how badly first-round picks are underpaid.

Ben: What comes to mind when you hear “Baz Luhrmann + Master and Marg”?
Keith Law: I said to someone else on Twitter that I take hope in the fact that every previously reported adaptation of TM&M has failed to come to fruition.

Stanyon Turtze: Do you have a gut feeling as to how much (if any) correction there will be to the HR rates & distance in the coming season?
Keith Law: No, not at all. You can’t without knowing what the baseballs will be like this year.

Eric: am i being hyperbolic in thinking the end of the republic is near? one side, for the last 10 years, has broken every rule and norm and gaslights the country on a daily basis, while the other just tries to play nice and get stomped over on the reg. i think we’re at the point where “rules” and “norms” in government aren’t upholdable anymore.
Keith Law: If Trump wins re-election next November, I’d feel that way.

Debra: Do you still project Deivi Garcia to start? Or does the future reside in the bullpen? Still a top 50 prospect in your estimation?
Keith Law: Nothing has changed since I ranked him top 50 in July. He’s small, but I think he has the stuff to start.

Jeff: Dodgers linked to Lindor & Clevinger a lot recently, what would be a fair exchange for both sides in your opinion?
Keith Law: Depends on whether Seager is in the deal, but I think the Dodgers would have to put Keibert Ruiz, one of Josiah Gray/Tony Gonsolin, and Jeter Downs in such a trade. Cleveland shouldn’t sell those two guys for less than a home run package and I think that would be one.

Dylan: Going to Denver-area in May for a show at Red Rocks. Rockies are out of town, but any other recommendations for cool things to do/see/experience/eat in the area? Preferably low/middle budget.
Keith Law: (Nate Dogg voice) Smoke weed every day.
Keith Law: Also, i can’t recommend things to do in Denver unless I know if you’re dead.

Tom: Hey Keith, right before the Bundy trade, I saw posts from multiple people about how the O’s completely mishandled him. Do you agree, and where do you think they went wrong? Converting him to a starter in mid-2016 after he’d missed 3 years with injuries?
Keith Law: I have been banging that drum for at least four years now.

Trevor: What type of package would it take for the Reds to acquire Mookie Betts? It seems that they are trying to go all-in this year and that would be the ultimate all-in move. Does it start with Lodolo? Hunter Greene?
Keith Law: They no longer have the pieces to get it done. They squandered them to get Alex Wood and Yasiel Puig and Trevor Bauer.

Jeff: Klaw, do you think that the Central is there for the taking for a team like Cincinnati? Generally speaking (without knowing the cost), would they be best served by adding another bat like Ozuna/Castellanos, or an arm like Bumgarner/Ryu? Thanks for all that you do.
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re close enough to St. Louis or Milwaukee right now. If they would go pay for one of those starters, that might change the equation for me.

Adam: Fan reaction to the Padres’ trading of Buddy Reed made it apparent that he was one of the most overrated prospects in the farm system. Inversely, which prospect in the Padres’ system do you think the organization values much higher than the rest of the industry?
Keith Law: Who overrated him? I’ve always maintained that he can’t hit, back to when he was at Florida. You can’t watch him swing and think that’s going to work. He was just kind of famous.

Pat D: What’s worse, the ghiblis or the jibblies? (Or the jibblie jibblies?)
Keith Law: The number of people who’d get both ends of that joke (this is about something I tweeted today) is pretty small, but I’m sure I’d be friends with them all.

Jim: Pretty underwhelming first couple of additions to the Chaim Bloom era, no? Any thoughts on the two signings?
Keith Law: Underwhelming? What did you expect them to do? They had no place for Rendon, and it was clear ownership wouldn’t open up the wallet for Cole or Strasburg.

Brendan: Any idea why no one from the MLBPA (or a top free agent they’d be interested in signing) hasn’t challenged the Yankees facial hair rule?
Keith Law: I’ve wondered that myself. It’s such petty bullshit, and would never pass a challenge by a player who grew his beard for his religion (e.g., some Sunni Muslims or observant Jews).

Anthony: Jeter seems like a lock, but since it’s HoF season, what are your thoughts on Abreu, the other good first-year player? He reached 60 WAR & could still be a 5% candidate.
Keith Law: He’s kind of behind Rolen for me in the category of players the writers as a whole will likely undervalue … but Abreu is borderline for me too. As of right now, he’s off my ballot, and that’s even with an open spot.

Anthony: Reports in Milwaukee that the team lost money due to the high payroll despite solid attendance figures. Is this actually possible in this day and age or just media spin to get fans on board with shedding salary for a tear down?
Keith Law: (wanking motion)

Jacoby: Is MLB worried that the Astros sign-stealing mess is just a donut hole in the middle of a donut that’s actually inside of another donut hole in the middle of an even bigger donut?
Keith Law: Nicely played. My gut feeling on this is that they’re dragging out the investigation to try to figure out who the highest-profile figure is they can suspend (or worse) for this.

Max: What are your main reasons for why this Mariners rebuild looks promising thus far?
Keith Law: Objection. Leading the chat answerer.

Matt: Were you surprised that the Angels basically took the offer they made to Cole and just gave it Rendon? I would have guessed any offer to the latter would have been somewhat lower.
Keith Law: Is it? I thought they offered Cole more, but I could be wrong.

SPORTS RADIO: WE DEFINITELY SHOULD DICTATE WHAT EVERYONE THINKS! REMEMBER THAT RYAN HOWARD IS THE PRE-EMINENT POWER HITTER OF OUR TIME, KEITH!
Keith Law: He’ll never, ever admit he was wrong.

Andrew V: Have you or are you planning to read Catch and Kill?
Keith Law: Nope.

MikeM: Where does Betances end up and can he be as effective as he was before all the injuries?
Keith Law: Again, I can’t do much with health questions.

Jason: Would it be wise for the brewers to trade Hader? Or is it dumb to trade a guy who is that dominant with 4 years left of control?
Keith Law: Absolutely I would trade him, because the odds of him staying healthy and this good for four more years, based on the history of relief pitchers, are somewhere south of 10%.

Brandon J.: Probably rightfully so, the Dodgers have made it known that they do not plan to move Lux and or May. But if a Cleveland deal involving Lindor and Clevenger was in the works, should they deal these two plus additional prospects?
Keith Law: See above – and notice that I also excluded Lux and May.

Scott: I read your top music of the year column. I am curious as to where you find your music? I have Sirius and listen to a variety of stations but even then I had not heard of several of them.
Keith Law: All over the place. There is no one place. I ‘try’ a lot of stuff, too, because there’s just so much new music out there.

Aaron: Ashamed to admit I only learned about Jen Mac Ramos’ work after hearing about that tragic car accident. While reading the outpouring of love from you and others, I was genuinely curious if you (or a reader) could point me to some material that would help me better understand – in general – preferred/appropriate pronoun usage?
Keith Law: GLSEN has a good, short resource (PDF) on the topic.
Keith Law: By the way, if it bothers you (not you, Aaron, the general you) to have someone else tell you their pronouns, you should probably have a long talk with yourself about why.

Mike: Was Paying $12 million to obtain Will Wilson a wise use of resources?
Keith Law: Of course.

Paul: Does Mazara still have any mystery to him?
Keith Law: He’s 24, so you can’t give up on him, but his approach hasn’t changed in four years now – even though the Rangers worked extensively with him on it.

James Beard: Do you watch any cooking shows? What about home reno shows?
Keith Law: Right now, just GBBO. Home reno shows tend to bore me.

Jake: I’ve always wanted to read Dune, but the big-budget movie is probably my most anticipated film of 2020 (Villanueve is a genius), and now I have the age-old question: book first or movie first?
Keith Law: I always read the book first if I can.
Keith Law: I read David Copperfield in September because Iannucci’s film version is coming out … eventually?

Brian: Assuming Kieboom is probably going to be the 2nd or 3rd baseman for Washington, should they be targeting the best guy regardless of position for the other spot?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. I also want them to settle on a single position for Kieboom, so they don’t Kingery him.

Michael: What did you eat in SD?
Keith Law: All the things. Mission, Bird Rock, Juniper & Ivy, Crack Shack, Rovino Foodery, Herb & Wood.

The Vandy man can: Where does David Price end up? What kind of return can the sox expect?
Keith Law: Feels like no trade is most likely. Will he pass a physical/review of his records even if someone agrees to take his contract?

Matt: Are the Cubs putting Bryant on the trade block solely for financial reasons? Or are there actual baseball reasons to trade him for pitching?
Keith Law: My guess is it’s 90% money, 10% baseball.

Kevin: Martin Perez for 6.5 million seems awfully high for a team trying to shed payroll. Does this move seem to indicate that the Red Sox feel confident in trading either Eovoldi or Price?
Keith Law: Or they see something they like that they believe they can fix.

Dan: How did the Ricketts get so, so poor? Poor Ricketts…
Keith Law: They gave it all to the GOP.

James: What’s your take on WIl WIlson, and the Giants Angels trade in general?
Keith Law: See my post on ESPN.com.

Snowy: Sitting in the cue for TOOL tickets, I remember reading that you weren’t a fan which kind of surprised me given some of your other musical tastes. Any particular reason or just not your thing?
Keith Law: I mean, I don’t like their music … not sure how else to describe it. It’s boring.

Orwell: How can so many people avoid the truth? What kind of grip does Putin have on our country?
Keith Law: I never thought I’d see this kind of cultlike devotion to a party or a politician, particularly ones that, in this case, have dedicated themselves to unrolling decades of progress in freedom, equality, or environmental protections. People who live in areas adversely affected by rollbacks in environmental laws continue to profess their intentions to vote red. It’s the most effective mass gaslighting campaign I can think of.

Scotty D from Downingtown: What is more probable – an existing team relocating to Montreal or an expansion team being allocated there?
Keith Law: Neither, in my opinion. MLB isn’t keen to revisit a market where they failed once.

Ghost of Josey Wales: Rangers fans and media are hotly debating whether the Rangers’ reported 6 year, $200M offer to Anthony Rendon, with a 7th year vesting option, was a legitimate effort to try to land Rendon, or just the team going through the motions by making an offer they knew would be rejected so the team could say they tried. What say you?
Keith Law: Obviously legitimate.

Jason: What are your thoughts on the Josh Lindblom signing? Can he have success in MLB?
Keith Law: Yes, as a reliever. Fastball/cutter guy, pitches up a lot, don’t see him turning a lineup over with that pitch combo.

Colin: I’m still skeptical about analytics, i feel a bunch of Ivy League guys figured out a way to scramble statistics in a way to push out longtime baseball guys, and that’s not cool. Can you tell me why i should take WAR seriously?
Keith Law: As an Ivy League guy myself, I think you should probably stop talking out of your ass about “Ivy League guys.” It’s embarrassing.

Dr. Bob: It seems to me that the length of years on a contract is almost meaningless as is AAV. Since contracts are fully guaranteed, then what counts is how many points of WAR a team projects a player to give them over the life of the contract. If the total dollars divided by their decision as to how much dollars per WAR represents value is close, then you have a good contract.
Keith Law: The AAV matters for the salary cap – er, luxury tax. The length of contract matters for individual team budgets, because it might affect the owners’ willingness to pay for additional players at some point in the future.

Bob Pollard: Putting aside how great he is, does nine years for Cole give you any pause at all?
Keith Law: Yes, I outlined why in my reaction post. You can’t project any pitcher out that far.

Tyler: Given the young up-and-coming pieces in the A’s rotation and the fact that they overperformed the last two years, do you think there is any chance they push the Astros this year?
Keith Law: More likely they regress. Division will be tougher as well.

Jason: What do you think now that the 3 batter rule is in effect? Ruins some strategy or will be largely inconsequential?
Keith Law: Eliminates one-batter strategies, and I’m fine with that. I hate mid-inning pitching changes, just speaking as a fan.

Matt: I know this is a few years late, but you recently mentioned how Malcolm Gladwell’s Joe Paterno ideas are disgusting (and I agree). It did remind me, though, that I haven’t read Joe Posnanski in years because of his book on the subject. Is that too harsh? As a journalist, was Posnanski in an impossible situation?
Keith Law: I am friends with Joe and probably not in a good position to answer, but I will say that because he was already mid-project when that story exploded, he had no clear way out of or around it. You can’t just up and deliver a different book than the one you signed a contract to deliver.

silvpak: with treinen and (potentially) betances, am i crazy in thinking the dodgers don’t actually need to do anything? madbum on a decent deal would be a good fit (and the compedy value alone with sfg is worth it), but the offense is pretty set (even a bit overstuffed on the roster side) and i’d be perfectly happy letting gonsolin/urias/stripling/may/santana duke it out for slots 4/5/6 in the rotation (after buehler/kershaw/maeda). maybe hill back on a pillow/rehab contract, but other than that i think they’re better suited waiting it out.
Keith Law: I agree. Starting depth would always help, because so many of their guys have injury histories, and if they can go get a superstar like Lindor they should just do it. But they’re the favorites in the division right now.

Max: JA Happ was highly touted in the trade for Halladay. Has he lived up to the hype surrounding him from that time?
Keith Law: Happ was never traded for Halladay.

Federico: What are your feelings on the Nats effectively choosing Stras over Rendon? Is there a route back to high level contention for them if they can’t manage to get a Donaldson/Bryant level replacement?
Keith Law: I think they knew Strasburg wanted to re-sign and chose that route rather than the uncertainy of Rendon. Rendon’s the better player, obviously.

Ben: Do you think Brandon Marsh would be a realistic get for the Tigers, if they were to send Boyd to LAA? Do you see Marsh as more a solid regular or is there some more upside?
Keith Law: Solid regular with upside is about right.
Keith Law: I’d like that trade for both sides, by the way.

Matt: Why are so many old white dudes angry at a 16 year old child that wants to *checks notes* make the world a better place?
Keith Law: Because she’s interfering with their profits, and perhaps their errant belief that we will always be bailed out of our own mistakes.

Tim: Do you think Milwaukee is actually looking to trade Hader or is this just let’s put his name out there and if someone blows us away we will trade him.
Keith Law: The difference is semantic, no? If they put him out there, they’re at least willing to trade him.

Jason: Would you go to four years on Josh Donaldson?
Keith Law: I would not.

Richard: Lots of worry in Toronto about scouting director Steve Sanders leaving -although the team is saying having your mentor Lacava around will help in the transition. Is losing one guy that crucial ? Will they replace internally?
Keith Law: They have been model-heavy in their draft, and that tends to last beyond a single director. I agree with them that having Lacava around will help as well.

Trevor: Braves have a lot of FA/trade options being rumored around for 3B. Has everyone given up on Riley after a strikeout prone 2nd half at age 22 all while trying to play a new position at the highest level?
Keith Law: Well, trying to play a far easier position, and he was strikeout prone for a reason. There’s enough cause for concern about his production in 2020 to justify the team looking elsewhere.

Guest: I know you are high on Luis Urias, but is it possible that he fell in love with the long ball (esp AAA) that killed his OBP bona fides?
Keith Law: That is almost certainly what happened.

Ben: If things all break right, what is a good comp for Issac Parades? I’ve seen Jhony Peralta mentioned a few times in the past, but maybe that needs to be updated because the Tigers seem to have given up on having him as rotund SS
Keith Law: Paredes has zero chance to play short. He wasn’t good when I saw him at third in the summer. He can definitely hit, and has real doubles power, but I see zero projection there and I think this is kind of what he is – high average, doubles, not many Ks, mediocre D at third.

Ray: The latest rumor reported by the NYT is that Trump might skip the debates in 2020, citing an “unfair process”. Two things: One, I actually predicted this like a year ago, so kudos to me if it happens I guess. Two, god damnit his base would love that wouldn’t they? Probably a shrewd move by him.
Keith Law: Yes, and he can probably only lose support by going up against someone like Warren – and I would guess any Democratic candidate will be better prepared to spar with him this time around.

Andrew V: What round in the draft does the first player you’ve never heard of usually get drafted?
Keith Law: It’s been as high as the first round (Hayden Simpson – I had one note on him from the spring, and didn’t remember it at all when he was taken) but it’s usually the third or fourth.

Chuck: Denver: Drink at Falling Rock Tap House, one of the great craft-beer bars in the U.S. Visit Tattered Cover bookstore.
Keith Law: Heard great things about the Tattered Cover. Also I hear Sushi Den is the place to go for sushi.

Eric: I wanted to hire Jen Mac Ramos at a previous job. What a talent and what a great person. I hope the recovery goes well; I cannot imagine the hell it must be.
Keith Law: Indeed, it will be a very long road but I think I speak for all of us in the online baseball community when I say we are behind them 100%.

TJ: If the reports are true that Wheeler didn’t actually take the highest offer, how often does something like that happen with a high profile free agent? Does the MLBPA have an issue with things like that?
Keith Law: Highest reported offer isn’t always the most money. Local taxes come into play, for one thing.

Ray: Don’t you love the assholes online that mock people for things such as announcing their pronouns, and then demand that they educate them on why it matters? Like, if you really wanted to learn, go out and read about it, Sparky. You’ve already told on yourself by telling me it’s MY job to teach you.
Keith Law: I had someone pull that shit on me two weeks ago … saying I was “pandering” by listing my pronouns. Buddy, if eight characters in my bio (which you should never see unless you go to my profile page – it’s not on my tweets) bother you that much, YOU have a problem.

Casey: Do you have any venison recipes?
Keith Law: I do not eat any red meat other than pork.

Tim: Does Bryant win his grievance which was blatantly obvious to anyone at the time. How could a trade be completed without knowing how much control the acquiring team has?
Keith Law: I don’t think he wins because I don’t see what evidence he could use to support the contention that the Cubs held him down solely to manipulate his service time. You and I know it’s true, but how do you prove that?

Matthew F: I play fantasy baseball with with many great owners from all over the world and its great to see MLB heading back to London again in 2020. Have you heard if MLB wants to expose baseball in other markets worldwide?
Keith Law: I have, but I don’t think anything is locked in yet.

Casey: Is Elehuris a candidate for your top 100 again? Just looking at the stats it seems like he took a step back this year?
Keith Law: Look at the stats and where they came. They jumped him two levels (why?) and he wasn’t ready, plus he missed more than half the year with injury. It’s a lost season but I wouldn’t say he regressed.

Monica Lewinsky: Can we impeach Mitch McConnell???
Keith Law: Matt Bevin just pardoned a man convicted of beheading his wife. Maybe we should ask the voters of Kentucky what they’ve been thinking.

Mark: Just made my first Blueberry pie. I was thinking afterwards it might have come out better if I had cooked the fruit before filling the pie. What say you ?
Keith Law: No, you may have needed more starch to thicken it.

Eric: Just how disgusted are you at the Jonah Keri situation. I hope his family is safe, and that they don;’t have to deal with those monstrous allegations anymore.
Keith Law: It’s beyond words. I wasn’t friends with Jonah, but even knowing I worked alongside him at times makes my skin crawl. Also, why does the court keep releasing him on these trivial bonds, even after he contacted the victim in violation of a court order? How many charges does it take to at least require him to pay more in bail?

Ben: Assuming that ownership signs off on the extra money (a big if), Oakland should absolutely jump on Jed Lowrie just for getting Dom Smith, am I right? Dom Smith seems undervalued to me.
Keith Law: Not sure he’s a good fit for Oakland with Olson there, but I agree that some team should pounce on that. Smith could be someone’s regular at 1b. Maybe Baltimore?

Anon: Hey Keith. I think I’ve needed treatment for a while; I don’t sleep or eat well, I’m extremely irritable and moody, and I have constant plaguing thoughts about my state of mind and future. But the issue is I don’t know what kind of professional I should seek. Psychologist? Therapist? …psychotherapist? Any insight would help. Thank you.
Keith Law: You could start with your primary care doctor – that’s how I started after I had that panic attack while driving. She helped me figure out what treatment I needed.

Ridley: With Brexit looking inevitable and Scoex…Scexi…Scotland leaving the UK looking likely, I’m seriously considering it as a landing place. Have you ever been to Scotland? Any thoughts on it as a place to live?
Keith Law: I worry about my inability to communicate with the locals.

Kevin : Where do you expect Ronny Mauricio to begin his 2020? And do you think he sticks at short?
Keith Law: Definitely sticks at short. Probably starts in high-A.

Steve : I know its not the popular decision but doesnt it make sense to consolidate the amount of minor league teams??
Keith Law: Yes. Note that the minors themselves have no problems moving teams around – 80+ relocations since 1990 – but when MLB suggests it, it’s like they’re pissing on the flag. Many of those markets can’t support baseball, or don’t have the facilities needed. Meanwhile, you have amazing spots like Aberdeen only used about half of the season when they could and should be in a higher classification. We could debate one or two specific locations, but the majority of those on the public list need to go.
Keith Law: Also, you can’t say in one breath that you want minor leaguers to be paid more, and then object to a plan that would result in better working conditions for players.

Mick: I read Vandy Austin Martin will get a shot at short. Can he hold that position all the way to the majors?
Keith Law: I’d like to see it. He was ++ at third when I last saw him.

Van Skike: I never saw your thoughts on the new Beck album… I was disappointed
Keith Law: I was too.

Mark: How could the Veterans committee have blown it so badly with Lou Whitaker?
Keith Law: Call me when the Hall manages to find a writer or executive of color for one of their committees.

Ray: Did you see this female reporter who got her butt smacked by a man while she was on air? The insane thing to me is once the guy was identified, there was a very vocal minority online yelling “Leave him alone – he has kids!” I mean, what in the actual F?
Keith Law: Yeah, and he claimed he didn’t know where he was hitting her. He should be charged with assault. Fuck every man who thinks that is okay.

Rahn: If you’re Ben Cherington, who gets moved out in your plan to improve the Pirates?
Keith Law: I’d shop Marte immediately.
Keith Law: Take offers on relievers and even on Archer, see if someone else is willing to pay to try to rebuild him.

Jason: Is Mauricio dubon a major league starter
Keith Law: I think so.

Yinka Double Dare: In Wheeler’s specific case, even considering the local taxes he took less money – Illinois income tax is currently under 5%, income tax for Philly is about 7% incl. the state and local income taxes
Keith Law: I wasn’t saying that was the issue with Wheeler – I cited taxes as one possible explanation. Maybe Chicago’s offer was more backloaded. Maybe it included option years and they were factoring in buyouts. Rejected offers are never fully made public.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week, and I believe that’ll be all for Klawchats in 2019. Thank you all for reading, and for all of your questions. I’ll be posting frequently to the dish in the next week, and reacting to any major signings or trades in the same time period, so keep an eye out for those. Happy holidays!

For ESPN+ subscribers, I wrote about the baseball argument for trading Mookie Betts, even though the Red Sox can certainly afford to keep him. Over at Paste, I reviewed the great two-player game Watergate, which whoa boy is that hitting the market at the right time.

Keith Law: Don’t you wish you knew better by now? Klawchat.

Merkle: Groshans future position? You like him or Bohm better as a hitter? Thanks Keith!
Keith Law: Any reason to think he can’t play third base? Bohm’s pure bat is better, especially since he’s ~3 years older and probably major-league ready in 2020. Would like to see Groshans go around the league twice.

JRussell: Hi Keith, do the Mets have a realistic package to offer for Betts? Would Dom Smith, Diaz and one of their better prospects (Baty, Jiminez) be enough? Figure Brodie may as well go all in even if the Kelenic/Cano trade was a fiasco?
Keith Law: The Mets should go all in but that package doesn’t get you close.

Jim: I’m shocked, yes shocked, to discover an MLB team recognizing the concept of sunk costs with the Yankees cutting Ellsbury!
Keith Law: If anything they’re a year late. Also, seeing media slagging Ellsbury on his way out the door is gross.

Mangle: Lucas Erceg will be 25 on May 1st. He hasn’t progressed much in Brewers system, but has shown glimpses. Maybe a change of scenery will do the trick. Good or bad lottery ticket for Rule 5 Draft?
Keith Law: I’d pass. .306 OBP over two years in AA and probably has to play 1b.

TomBruno23: Is there a resource that you recommend using to tell the story of the real Thanksgiving to my 8/6/4 year olds?
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s a tough one. This might get you started.

TomBruno23: White Castle Impossible Slider Stuffing. Are you in or out?
Keith Law: That sounds unpleasant. Is it with the Impossible meat substitute? I do like that as a burger but I don’t think I want any food product connected to White Castle.

addoeh: For whomever is the Democratic nominee, what percentage of their campaign time would you want to see them devote to talking about issues (healthcare, taxes, etc) vs. reminding voters of the current administration’s corruption? 80/20? 90/10?
Keith Law: I’m not plugged into that at all … what are voters most concerned about? Clinton basically won in 1992 because the economy was slowing and he talked about it constantly. If it’s health care now, the candidates should talk health care.

Jeremy: I’m leery of the Braves investing so much money in the bullpen. Individually, I don’t think the contracts are terrible…Smith’s isn’t my favorite, but do you think this is a good approach to the offseason?
Keith Law: Just posted an ESPN+ column that included that … I thought Smith was the best LHR on the market and would give him three years. Martin’s deal was pretty expensive especially given his age.

addoeh: If found guilty, do you see the MLB handing down stiffer penalties for the Astros pitch-tipping than the Braves international signing violations or the Cardinals hacking?
Keith Law: I’d say in between, closer to the Cardinals’ hacking. If the investigation finds that Luhnow knew and/or approved of the use of technology to steal signs, he might end up in durance vile like Coppolella did.

Hinkie: Haven’t had a chance to ask your opinion on the Phillies hiring of Brian Barber as amateur scouting director. Good hire, or could they have done better? Yankees drafts haven’t been great lately.
Keith Law: Good hire. Yankees’ drafts have been pretty good – not sure why you say that – and their process is one of the best at integrating traditional scouting with analytics.

Aaron G: 4/$73MM for Grandal? That seems…off.
Keith Law: Also in today’s column. Feels about right to me.

Jeff: If Gerrit Cole signs with the Angels (or the Yankees believe that he will), which starter do you think the Yankees should attempt to sign as a free agent?
Keith Law: Strasburg, Wheeler, Ryu … just work right on down the list. They need a good starter, and while Cole is the best, it’s not as if he’s the only viable choice for them.

Joe: Any idea why Didi didn’t get a QO? Seems like the team did him a favor.
Keith Law: I’m not sure either … I think he’s one of the best free agents on the market.

TP: Agree with you on Austin’s potential as an MLB city. But if the MLS stadium fight is any indication, there will be no public subsidies for an MLB stadium, and it won’t be built on public land within the city limits. You could build something between Austin and San Antonio, but it would be out in the country and require significant infrastructure upgrades just to get there. Not impossible, but hard to see it happening in Austin given local politics and current challenges related to growth, traffic, and gentrification.
Keith Law: Fair points, and in reality, MLB isn’t expanding to any city that doesn’t hand them a big publicly-funded stadium. That said, Orlando is a terrible market, even if the free stadium is there. MLB would just end up propping it up with revenue-sharing, and I can’t imagine the owners of the high-payroll franchises would be OK with that.

xxx(yyy): just found out wife may be lactose intolerant – any standout recipes you make that would work here?

(assume that vegan cheese tastes about as bad as sounds like it does)
Keith Law: I use lactose-free milk everywhere. You can make homemade ricotta from LF whole milk and it’s better than regular store-bought.

greggu: Do you come across restaurants that add 15-20 percent to the bill who also claim that it is NOT a tip that goes to the wait staff? We have a few of those here in Hawaii that simply pocket the service charge and put the burden on diners to give up an additional 20-25 percent for the workers.

I always accepted the service charge and added whatever additional amount was necessary to make it to 20 percent. Now I see this at a few of my favorite restaurants. I don’t think it’s fair for me to cough up to 40 percent of the bill so I just stopped going to these places, although some peeps at Yelp insisted I should feel free to add zero tip with a clear conscience. What would you do at a restaurant with such a practice?
Keith Law: I’ve never heard of this in the United States.

Tim Robinson: Home/road splits for OPS and wRC+ don’t show much difference for the Astros the past few years. Their scheme was elaborate but did it actually matter?
Keith Law: That is hardly exculpatory.

Jason: I know you’re a big proponent of compensating collegiate athletes. My question is do you think the ‘likeness’ issue being resolved goes far enough, or do you think the university/NCAA should directly compensate the athletes? Also, do you compensate wrestling, crew, T&F, and other non-revenue generating sports, or just MBB and FB… and maybe a few WBB and BB who do generate a profit… Just curious as to your opinions. Thanks.
Keith Law: Let the market determine who gets paid and how much. Players whose sports don’t generate revenue probably wouldn’t be paid, but the objection I have and many others do as well – that coaches and administrators, nearly all of them white men, are profiting off the free labor of student-athletes who are a far more diverse group – isn’t an issue when the sport doesn’t bring in the cash.

Joe: What happens to players not selected in the rule 5 draft? Do they stay with their original teams? Do they become free agents?
Keith Law: They stay with their original teams, and are just not on the 40-man roster, so to be recalled to the majors they must first have their contracts purchased so they are added to the 40-man.

The Sloth: Any surprises among those left exposed to the Rule 5 Draft?
Keith Law: No, not really. The rule 5 draft is a huge waste of time.

Heater: Byron Buxton is now 25 yrs old. Has his prospect of becoming a star faded and he is what he is? Or will there be more?
Keith Law: He’s been very good when healthy – worth about 3 WAR in half a season last year. I’m not sure why so many fans want to give up on him given how good he’s been when he can take the field. The concern is that he’s on the IL too often, not about his ability.

Aaron C.: 2020 A’s rotation is high on potential, but light innings/dependability past Fiers, I guess. What’s the best way to address this?
Keith Law: They should fish in the lower end of the starter market … I see a few good innings-eater types out there this year. And of course they know to target guys who fit that ballpark.

JRussell: Hey Keith, I See the Mets left Shervyen Newton unprotected in the Rule 5 and he has been on at least one top 10 list for them? Any chance he is selected and was leaving him unprotected a mistake?
Keith Law: He struck out (32.8% of his PA) more often than he got on base (28.3%) in low-A last year.
Keith Law: I don’t even see the issue. If someone wants to burn a 25-man spot most of the year and a 40-man spot all year on a player who has roughly a 0.0% chance to hit, go for it. It’s not even clear if he’s much of a prospect at this point.

Aaron C.: Been to enough new spots to possibly update your pizza rankings in the near future? Can I interest you in creating a new food ranking list like “best desserts” or something?
Keith Law: I have a list of dish projects for the offseason and that’s on it, but first I have to complete the first round of edits on The Inside Game and do some of the regular year-end posts (cookbooks, music). The top 100 board games post went up this week.

DEAN M: There’s alot of helium on Alek Thomas in the prospect circles recently of him becoming a 5 too all-star. Buy in? Too early to tell?
Keith Law: If someone talks about him as a 5-tool All-Star you shouldn’t listen to anything else they say, because they are clearly bullshitting. And I like Thomas a lot, had him on my midseason top 50.

Jason: Any interesting names that were not protected in the Rule 5 draft? I know the extra year has eliminated much of the value in it, but last year pundits were at least talking about Richie Martin
Keith Law: And then Martin was worth -0.6 WAR with a .260 OBP. The rule 5 draft is really bad. MLB ruined it to exert further control over players, and because those players were minor leaguers, the MLBPA didn’t stop it.

Moe Mentum: Lance Berkman finished in the top 20 for league MVP voting 7 different times in his career, but didn’t even get enough Hall of Fame votes to stay on the ballot after his first year of eligibility. Surprised? Bad news for Adrian Gonzalez (8 times) and Matt Holliday (7 times)?
Keith Law: He’s not a HoFer in any sense, and I don’t think the other guys are too. Top 20 in the voting is hardly an achievement with 10 spots on the ballot.

Aaron C.: Been listening to the “Slow Burn” podcast and wondering where you stand on the most divisive question of our time: Biggie or Tupac?
Keith Law: Tupac.

Nate: Why do you think cherington said yes to the pirates but not others?
Keith Law: Good opportunity for a player development guy to enact his own system without the win-now pressure of a Boston.
Keith Law: That’s my guess. I haven’t asked him.

Rob: What are your thoughts on the Jose De Leon trade by the Reds and Rays? Can he fill the fifth rotation spot or is he more of a middle reliever at this point?
Keith Law: I like De Leon as a back-end starter but he seems like a dubious fit for Cincinnati’s home park.

Frank: I read your piece on Mookie. To me the real question for any team interested is do your really want to give up top pieces in your farm system for undoubtedly a great player but one who is going to make 25-30M from arbitration and have no guarantee you can keep him next year. So it’s one year, a lot of money and a couple of high level prospects to get him. When teams trade for players of that caliber at least 1 of those 3 criteria should be in the acquiring teams favor. None are here. Seems like way too much of a risk for me and in turn Boston shouldn’t trade him unless they get that kind of return. I don’t see how a deal gets done.
Keith Law: Sure, all deals like that are unlikely unless the selling team has decided they just can’t (won’t) pay the player, which is clearly not true here. I just wanted to point out that there is a valid baseball reason for the Sox to trade him, beyond just treating the luxury tax like a hard cap.

John: No question but thanks for recommending Homegrown by Alex Speier, I’ve been tearing through it!
Keith Law: Great! Alex is a longtime friend and a fantastic writer.

JR: Torkelson the clear shot pick for the Tigers?
Keith Law: No.

Alan: Next move for the White Sox is?
Keith Law: It should be a starting pitcher.

Kip: Are the Braves still active in the international market with sanctions finally gone in the ’21-’22 class? I don’t really read them being “in” on any player and they’ve had lots of turnover in their scouting department.
Keith Law: They have to be involved now, since those guys agree to terms 2-3 years out, but it might be quiet because they’re trying not to get in trouble.

Todd Boss: Are you ready for another Hall of Fame season? I write this mostly tongue-in-cheek, but there seems like a real chance to get some backlog cleared out with just one sure-fire new candidate on the ballot this year.
Keith Law: I have contemplated my ballot and there’s a good chance I won’t vote for ten players. I think there are ~8 clearly worthy guys, then maybe 4 bubble guys, players I wouldn’t say *don’t* belong in but about whom you could have a good argument.

Ryan: How do you interpret Atlanta’s offseason so far? I would’ve put 3B/cOF/SP/C all ahead of RP as needs.
Keith Law: Signing RP first doesn’t mean the front office thought it was the biggest need.

Mike: How long will the MLB lockout of 2022 go on for?
Keith Law: With as much revenue as there is, I wonder if the owners would shoot themselves in the foot like that for an extended period … the goose still lays golden eggs, and I’m sorry if they’re not all 24 karats.

Mark: can you give a a few thoughts about the Giants GM and manager hirings? I know you like Kapler, any thoughts on Harris?
Keith Law: Heard nothing but good things on Harris from Cubs folks, but I don’t know him personally. Kapler I think is a great hire, especially since they’re likely to run some young rosters the next few years.

Sean: Great article on the Red Sox decision with Betts. Would Gonsolin / Gray / Cartaya be enough for you to pull the trigger?
Keith Law: That’s a good offer by value but if you don’t think Gonsolin is a sure starter it probably doesn’t meet the criteria I laid out.
Keith Law: I think he’s a likely starter, not a certain one. Gray is a certain starter.

Jennifer: Toughest part of being divorced?
Keith Law: Not even close – days without my daughter. I doubt I will ever get used to that. Fortunately she’s old enough that we text pretty regularly even if it’s just for me to joke around with her and her to say “ok boomer” to me.

Rob: How does Spiritual Instinct stack up to Kodama in your opinion?
Keith Law: I have to listen to SI more but i think I liked Kodama a little better?

TFT: Is Chatham a good enough hitter to become the Red Sox regular 2nd baseman?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Sean: do you think trent grisham can find 500 ABs for the brewers next year or will he be stuck in the OF4 role?
Keith Law: He’s good enough to be a regular somewhere, although Milwaukee may want more certainty, and he’d be a really valuable trade piece because he’s ready to play right now.

Eric: how enjoyable is it seeing every single hack gop talking point get destroyed in real time by every single witness?
Keith Law: It’s so perfectly timed that someone needs to send the script back for rewrite.

Sean: with jhoan duran added to the 40 man so you think he gets a crack in the majors in 2020?
Keith Law: Yes, in some role.

Todd Boss: I know you hate Rule-5 but the Washington Natsmosphere is kind of surprised we didn’t see a couple more names get protected yesterday; do you have opinion on Sterling Sharp in particular, or lesser candidates like Taylor Gushue, Mario Sanchez and Steven Fuentes?
Keith Law: I could see someone taking Sharp, not the others.

Congress: HEY LET’S ELIMINATE HUNDREDS TO THOUSANDS OF MINOR LEAGUE BASEBALL JOBS WHILE ALSO ALLOWING MINOR LEAGUERS TO BE PAID RIDICULOUSLY LOW WAGES!
Keith Law: Hundreds to thousands of minor league jobs? I mean, I know facility with math isn’t a requirement for elected office, but jeez.

Matt: KLaw, when you were with Toronto, was there any truh to the rumors of the Jays positioning men in the outfield bleachers and signaling signs to the home team’s hitters? Do you think any other teams today go as far as Houston does to steal signs?
Keith Law: That rumor was after I left.

Paul (NJ): Trying to cook a deep fried turkey for the first time for Thanksgiving. Have you done it and are you a fan? Any recommendations for someone trying it for the first time?
Keith Law: Keep a large, functioning fire extinguisher nearby. Or roast it.

Larry: Have you ever heard of a band called Wintersun? If so, what do you think?
Keith Law: Songs are a bit long for my taste but I do like that style of metal.

KillMonger: Hi Keith, we’ve had three of the year’s best films come out from Asian filmmakers. Knowing you liked “Parasite”, did you see “The Farewell”? If not, I’d highly recommend that along with “Ms. Purple”.
Keith Law: Not yet but it’s on the list.

addoeh: Hosting Thanksgiving this year? Doing the “traditional” chat while spatchcocking the turkey?
Keith Law: I’ll do the Periscope while hacking up the bird, yes. My girlfriend is hosting and we’ll split the cooking.

Davey: Can Dinelson Lamet last at the top or middle of an MLB rotation with a 4.0 BB/9? People knock him for it but he’s posted a 1.25 WHIP and 11.7 k/9 in 2017 and 2019. Heck his xFIP this year was 3.44.
Keith Law: He doesn’t have the third pitch he’ll need to start.

Ciscoskid: Is the middle/lower class of baseball in the greatest risk with the upcoming labor negotiations? Between platooning/load management, it seems Stars are the only people destined to be everyday players. Makes me think MLB needs a pretty big 21st century overhaul and expecting that from MLB owners seems a bit much. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Yes, I think that’s a real concern, and a good argument for the MLBPA to push for a much higher minimum salary.

Adam: Are the Padres and Red Sox each motivated enough to take on the “risk” of a Myers for Price swap?
Keith Law: Why on earth would Boston do that?

Rog: You interviewed for a job with the Astros, no? What do you think about this mess? Did you get any sense ownership was OK with skirting and/or breaking the rules?
Keith Law: I can’t believe they forgot to ask me in the interview if I’d be willing and able to help them cheat.

Adam: The Padres are reportedly surrounding Jayce Tingler with two Showalter guys, Bobby Dickerson and Wayne Kirby. I’m assuming these moves were made to appease Manny Machado, but what are your thoughts on their coaching/development prowess?
Keith Law: Why would that appease Manny Machado? He wasn’t a Buck fan.

Ollie: How much will the Dbacks regret trading away Chisholm?
Keith Law: It’s not how much, but how likely. If he’s any good, he’ll be great. They think there’s too much of a risk that he’s not any good, that the strikeouts and the slightly out-of-control playing style overwhelm his ridiculous talent.

Adam: How do you feel about the new Padres jerseys?
Keith Law: I really don’t care. I’m sure Fashiongraphs will have an opinion for you.

Joey: Can Alek Thomas or Corbin Carroll develop plus power? Which one is the better bet to stick in center? Thank you!
Keith Law: I like Carroll’s future power more than Thomas’s. Right now I have both staying in CF.

John Coppollela: In light of the pending penalties for HOU’s transgressions, was my lifetime ban a bit too Draconian?
Keith Law: We don’t know the pending penalties for Houston, but I think MLB made an example of Coppolella, and that the penalty didn’t fit the crime (or recognize how many teams did similar stuff because the lawless July 2nd market all but requires it).

Eric: Devin Nunes is clearly not a smart person. How the hell does he keep getting elected?
Keith Law: Matt Gaetz sees you and raises you -$50.

Dylan: Out of all the white sox outfield prospects not named Luis Robert or Steele Walker, who (Luis Basabe, Micker Adolfo, Blake Rutherford, Luis Gonzalez) has the Most realistic chance at making the majors and contributing
Keith Law: Adolfo is going to hit his way to the majors. I’d probably pick him.

Kyle: I have the Disney plus bundle that includes ESPN +. Does that allow me to read your insider stuff?
Keith Law: Yes, you can read my stuff while watching The Rescuers.

Paul: A’s DFAd Jharel Cotton. Are you out on him at this point?
Keith Law: Not at all – just waiting to see him return from TJ.

John Zirinsky: Keith if I recall correctly you were never a big Greg Bird fan, so I would imagine you think the Yanks did the right thing?
Keith Law: My issue was that he was a DH only. I think the reason they cut him was that he was so seldom healthy.

Tom: Does Austin Hays have a shot at being a decent everyday CF?
Keith Law: I don’t think he has any shot at CF.

Marty: What’s up with teams not hiring minorities for managers and GM positions? White privilege alive and well. Writers like you sit on your hands and never question it
Keith Law: Oh fuck right off. I point that out all the time. I even spoke to a high-ranking exec last week who hired a white candidate for one such job to ask which candidates of color he’d interviewed. Someone asked me for suggestions for a director-level position they had open this fall, and I made sure to include candidates of color on that list too. And I am *far* from the only person in the media who has pointed out this issue, or the underlying issue that people of color and women do not get the same initial opportunities or the chances for advancement prior to director-level, manager, or GM positions to create a candidate pool beyond the same old white men. If you think no one is talking about it, you have your fingers in your ears.

Zach D: A well-known national baseball writer said that Albert Belle was “one dimensional player” and that’s why he’s not in the HOF…sigh
Keith Law: I think we know what “dimension” that would be.

Gary: MLB owners shielding media with police force is_____.
Keith Law: Were public funds used for that? I have no idea how that works but if Crane didn’t pay for that out of his own pocket I’d be furious.

Ron: A question for you that most likely never will happen. I own a MLB team and we need a stadium. I have so much money, the land to build on and love the city so much that I will build the stadium myself without tax dollars and work out parking and other logistics with the city. I reserve the right to name said stadium after some baseball icon or whatever and tell them to shove the corporate naming rights because I don’t want their money. Would MLB agree? Would it matter if they did or not?
Keith Law: They would. You just kind of don’t exist.

Ridley: FWIW, any non-discretionary amount, say an automatic 18% for parties of six or more, added to a check in a restaurant is considered a “service charge” and not a tip, and the restaurant has the right to do whatever they want with it. This has been the case since January, 2014 in the U.S. and the restaurant is under no obligation to disclose where the money goes. I’ve been in the restaurant industry for 35 years now and this is one of the shadiest aspects of a very shady business.
Keith Law: I didn’t know that those automatic service charges weren’t guaranteed to go to servers. I’ll ask from now on.

Nathan: No question, just wanted to acknowledge your awesome Coldplay reference in your latest article
Keith Law: Tried to keep it subtle, and stick with one of their actual good songs.

Josh : If the White Sox go after Rendon , would moving Moncada to RF make sense?
Keith Law: Or centerfield? Granted Robert’s there too but why couldn’t Moncada play it?

Alex: Is the guy from Vanderbilt who some think is a top 3 pick (name escapes me now), does he have enough arm to remain at SS or 3B? Thanks
Keith Law: Austin Martin, who is definitely a real person and not a knockoff sports car, played ridiculously good 3b when I saw him in May.

Chris: Hey Keith, Do you think Beltran can fix Edwin Diaz?
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s anything wrong with Diaz that a de-juiced baseball can’t fix.

Zac: Im surprised the Tigers decided to protect Derek Hill. I know you have always been high on him so has he done enough last year to belive he can be at least a bench piece?
Keith Law: He can definitely play CF in the majors. I don’t think he’s that far away from being a good bench piece but he isn’t there right now.

Black Cat: Not a question, but just wanted to let you know I’m about 40% through The Master and Margarita. It probably wouldn’t have crossed my radar had I not read your Top 100 list. Thanks for the suggestion! I’m enjoying it so far.
Keith Law: Glad you’ve liked it! It’s such a masterwork of imagination and layered meanings.

Brian: Keith, I just finished Exit West based upon your recommendation and absolutely loved it. Any similar books you recommend?
Keith Law: A Tale for the Time Being, Lincoln in the Bardo, Kafka on the Shore.

Georgie: How do some national writers still not understand trade value whatsoever? Saw an article today suggesting Bryant for Fried, Waters, Wilson, and Contreras.
Keith Law: Yikes.

Kyle: If the server says, “No, the restaurant keeps the 18%”, what will you do? Not tip? Tip and tell the owner you’re never coming back?
Keith Law: Tip, absolutely. It’s not the server’s fault. Sure, I’d call out the owner for misleading customers, but the most important thing is to ensure the servers are paid.

Phil: True or False: Irrespective of his playoff miscues, Clayton Kershaw is the finest starting pitcher of his generation.
Keith Law: True. He had some great playoff outings too, but no one wants to remember them.

Matt: It’s starting to get cold which means I love hot stews/soups. Any favorites and what’s the key to making a good stew?
Keith Law: The stock. Use real stock, make your own, and it’s hard to screw it up.

Craig: a person on the chat accused you of being insufficiently woke on MLB minority hiring
Keith Law: I’m sure I could do and say more, but to say that I and other writers like me haven’t done or said anything is nonsense.

Chris: Most underrated Thanksgiving food and most overrated?
Keith Law: Most underrated is a good-quality scratch pumpkin pie. Most overrated is that gloppy mess of green bean casserole.

Buscon Bob: Baltimore hired a female FO member yesterday, so is her rank higher than Kim Ng’s with LA?
Keith Law: I don’t think her rank is higher but I’ve met Eve and this is a great hire. She’s one of three women to leave Houston’s baseball ops department in the last four months, I think.

Chris: Rick Hahn just said that Grandal is “elite at at a premium position.” Agree?
Keith Law: Obviously yes.

Andy: Do you make money on this website? The ads aren’t obtrusive, thanks for that.
Keith Law: I make a little bit, although if you consider the hours I put into writing, it’s a labor of love.

Chris: Thoughts on Carlos Beltran as Mets manager?
Keith Law: Zero experience managing or coaching at any level. I do not favor those hires at all.

Buscon Bob: Have you seen Jo jo Rabbit yet?
Keith Law: No; the reviews by people I trust have been tepid to outright negative. If it gets some nominations I’ll double back to see it but I have other films i want to see (Pain & Glory, Knives Out, The Irishman).

addoeh: “Matt Gaetz sees you and raises you -$50.”

Steve King says “All in!”
Keith Law: King is a whole different breed than the others. Nunes and Gaetz are dunces. King is terrifying.

Snowy: Giants fans overwhelmingly hate Kapler already. Based on what Farhan has done so far, I think we have to give him the benefit of the doubt. Do you think Kapler is a good fit in SF?
Keith Law: Giants fans who hate Kapler are probably basing it off incorrect or incomplete information. That’s a shame.

Aaron: The Angels just added Jamai Jones to the 40 man to protect him from the rule 5 draft. Just looking at the stat line it looks like he’s been disappointing in his development the last couple of years. What have you seen or heard from a scouting perspective? Will he hit enough to start in the majors? How’s his defense developed since moving big to 2B?
Keith Law: He’s been disappointing at the plate when I’ve seen him. Swing is good, swing decisions haven’t been.

Guest: McCammond/Barkley issue – uncalled for by Barkley. But why do people not delete their twitter accounts when they become “famous”. Countless jokes/slurs by McCammond against the Asian and LGBT community. She doesn’t think people won’t find this?
Keith Law: Irrelevant to the issue at hand. What Barkley said should have been enough to get him fired. Any discussion of her is a de facto argument over whether she ‘deserved’ the insult.

Brett: Have you ever tried venison? If so, did you like it?
Keith Law: Yes, I think just once, and now I don’t eat any red meat other than pork.

Craig: Rumor is that Milwaukee wouldn’t guarantee Yaz a 4th year. I am thinking that is an AL vs NL thing — CWS was willing to go there because they could use him at DH to cut down on his wear and tear and to use his bat into his mid 30s; without that kind of option, MIL couldn’t justify the 4th year. Is this thinking valid?
Keith Law: I have no idea if that’s true but it is logical.

Jack: I saw your comments on twitter yesterday about Gladwell and his chapter on Sandusky and Nassar. Just wanted to see if you could provide more details on your thoughts I am curious to hear your full opinion
Keith Law: What I said covered it – he’s a Penn State truther and now has run roughshod over Nassar victims in some weird, misguided attempt to discredit some of their statements. I won’t read his stuff or listen to anything he’s on.
Keith Law: Gotta run to pick up my daughter for a doctor’s appointment. Thank you all for reading & for all of your questions. No Klawchat next week but as mentioned above I’ll do a Periscope while I spatchcock the turkey, either on Tuesday or Wednesday, so stay tuned for that. Enjoy your weekends!

You can pre-order my new book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Can Tell Us About Ourselves, now through any bookstore.

Keith Law: I am unwilling to uncover my eyes. Klawchat.

Tony: It seems pretty interesting to me that all the coaches the Phillies fired this year (Young, Mallee, Kapler) have either immediately new work or seem to be on the verge of new work. Makes me think that maybe it wasn’t the coaching that was the issue in Philadelphia
Keith Law: I wondered if the Kapler dismissal, at least, was from ownership, not baseball operations. It came far later than a GM would ordinarily like to make such a change, and during the season I never heard anything from their front office that made me think Kapler’s job was in jeopardy.

Royal Pains: You referenced seeing Erick Pena, last week in the chat. Any initial thoughts other than the advanced physique? And being forever away
Keith Law: Not really. I saw one instructs game and wrote him up briefly on ESPN.com, but I don’t want to draw big conclusions from a few at bats in a barely-game from a 16-year-old, either.

Nate: Keith, accepting the QO for Jose Abreu is a no-brainer, right?
Keith Law: I think so.

Jeffrey : Did Tony Clark overreact? Is this sounding like a bad divorce where if somebody sneezes looks at you the wrong way it’s time to close the lawyers? Is this good for baseball? Kind of fans have their say at the table when all is set between labor and management?
Keith Law: I did not read Anthopoulos’ comments as indicative of collusion – it sounds like a GM describing the typical due diligence he would do with the GM meetings coming up. You call other GMs and ask what their plans are to try to see if you might line up on any trades. “Hey, we have extra starters we’d part with in a deal for X, and you have needs in your rotation. Do you plan to fill those via trades or free agency?” That’s not collusion. Asking if another GM intends to bid on Gerrit Cole would be collusion, of course, or even asking how much they might have budgeted to spend on free agent starters would, but I didn’t read the comments like that at all.

Mike: Favorite book and movie of all time?
Keith Law: My favorite book of all time hasn’t changed. As for movies, I don’t have a single, clear favorite. Many I love and recommend, but it’s hard for me to compare watching Double Indemnity and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Amelie. They’re all such different experiences, and Double Indemnity didn’t have the technical advantages of the latter two.

Dan: Favorite razor / shaving cream?
Keith Law: That’s a fun one. I’m boring, though: Gillette Mach whatever razors, Nivea shave gel. And I only shave about every week and a half.

Nate: Keith, will you put out a draft prospect watch list before the season?
Keith Law: Yes.

Sean : Hi Keith, I have a question that I hope isn’t getting too personal.. I know you have mentioned your anxiety before.. I also deal with anxiety quite often – maybe not as much as someone else but still feel like it still takes over a good portion of my life. What are some ways you have found work for you to combat with your anxiety?
Keith Law: I’ve mentioned this acronym before, EMMET: Exercise, Medication, Meditation, Eating, Therapy. That’s not in order but it’s easy to remember. I would say therapy is probably the most important component, and it’s possible that that’s most of what you need. I just would emphasize that you shouldn’t resist medication like I did for years – my life is substantially better across the board since I started taking a low dose of an SSRI.

JJ: No chance Chaim Bloom can trade David Price this off-season, right? Some media types in Boston are playing up an idea that the Rangers might be interested, but I can’t see a reason why any team would be interested in paying $32 million a year for the next three years for his past glory.
Keith Law: His elbow would be the obstacle. I can’t see how the Red Sox could effectively insulate the acquiring team from the risk of Price’s elbow blowing up.

Jacob: Is there an Ivy League school you would discourage your child from attending?
Keith Law: No. They’re all good schools, and they all confer positive name value on graduates in just about any field that might matter – academic, corporate, nonprofit. The biggest reason to go to an expensive private school is either the value of its name or the network of contacts you develop there. I don’t think the typical private school is providing that much higher quality of an education, and your child will likely have a great social experience at less expensive schools. But elite colleges have brand equity that makes a tangible difference.

Ken: How’s your Josh Ritter fandom coming along? He is my favorite live performer.
Keith Law: I’m not a fan, sorry.

Sven Goindon: Hi Keith: where do you think Dellin Betances ends up next year and what kind of contract do you think he’ll get, given he missed all but 2/3 of an inning this season. Thanks.
Keith Law: I imagine a one-year, incentive-laden deal. $2-4 million base, chance to get to $10MM if he’s healthy all year?

Jackie: Anybody catch your eye on the “Modern Era” ballot for the HOF? I would say that the Harold Baines selection last winter really lowered the bar to an unacceptable level, so it would probably be for the best if the veterans’ committee only selected Marvin Miller, just to restore a level of exceptionalism to the player’s side of things.
Keith Law: Whitaker and Evans belong in the Hall, as does Miller. Don’t let the Baines fiasco hurt players who are truly deserving.

xxx(yyy): any major changes expected to your cooking gift guide this year?
Keith Law: Tools, no, but cookbooks yes. I think the biggest addition to my cooking gear of the last 12 months is an Ooni outdoor pizza oven, which I absolutely love, but which isn’t exactly a necessity.

Bruce: Reynaldo Lopez has a few brilliant starts each year that give you hope and then follows that up with a bunch of awful starts. Can he be a reliable starter or should he be in the pen?
Keith Law: I’ve always maintained he needed to go to the bullpen. His delivery is tough to repeat – it’s similar to Severino’s, so I suppose there’s some injury risk too – and he doesn’t have a viable way to get LHB out.

Heather: Which team should offer the most for Mookie Betts this winter, regardless of the fact that he’s definitely hitting the FA market after next season?
Keith Law: A team trying to contend right now that would probably be on the outside looking in if they don’t acquire someone of Betts’ caliber. San Diego, the White Sox, and the Mets all fit. The Cubs would too, but if the Red Sox want young pitching, as I suspect they do, that’s not a fit.

Gene: Kieth, I wanted to ask for clarification regarding your opinion on Buck Showalter. I am a regular reader, an occasional submitter, and, generally, like minded with your opinions in most cases, but I don’t understand your feelings regarding Showalter. I know from past comments that you feel he is an old school instinct coach rather that committed to data application, and you have also voice concern regarding his use of pitchers like Bundy. The Bundy thing always stuck with me because he seemed to have been damaged in high school and travel ball from over use. After the arm injury in the minors, I thought the O’s were just trying to get what they could out of a perishable commodity. While I never understood some of the things the O’s did with pitching prospects during his tenure, the side of the rubber or the insistence of having pitchers shelving the pitches that got them drafted in favor of the FB, CH, CB, repertoires, I wasn’t sure how much of that was on Buck or was organizational.
Keith Law: That was entirely on Buck, as was some of went wrong with the use of Hunter Harvey and Cody Sedlock, as well as the constant messing with Kevin Gausman’s and Jake Arrieta’s positions on the mound, and some other stuff that I’ve heard on background that involved coaches Buck employed. Maybe he’d be different the next time around, but I can’t look at his tenure in Baltimore without noting how young pitchers failed to develop under him.

xxx(yyy): what happened with Jurickson Profar? Literally had the lowest BABIP of any qualified hitter in 2019, and one of the 4 lowest of the last 10 years. While there is hope for some level of bounce back is he cooked?
Keith Law: I don’t have a good answer for that, other than to say I was floored by the low BABIP. Maybe the shoulder isn’t fully healed, or he’s pulling his punches out of fear of reinjury? Either way, if that doesn’t improve in 2020, he’s probably done.

Alex: More viable market for an MLB franchise: Tampa or Montreal?
Keith Law: Tampa, but not with a stadium in St. Petersburg.

brett: when will you start your offseason articles series’?
Keith Law: Prospect stuff? End of January/early February.

@Tepper: Has your opinion changed at all on Willie Calhoun? Seems like he acquitted himself OK in his first year in the Majors…
Keith Law: .323 OBP for a well below-average defensive LF who probably needs to DH. 93 outfielders had 600+ innings in the field in 2019; Calhoun’s UZR ranked him 85th, and his dRS was worse.

Steve: Will Harris should also take his QO, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Brett: Do you still believe in Corbin Burnes as a SP? He was electric in his first year as a RP but was lost this year. Brewers need him to pan out as a SP?
Keith Law: I do, if he’s healthy. Also heard of a small mechanical flaw the Brewers are hoping to fix … we’ll see if that comes to anything.

HH: Is Triston McKenzie still progressing? I don’t see him talked about much at all anymore.
Keith Law: He missed all of 2019 due to injury.

Nash: Mr.Law, has Twins pitching prospect Jordan Balazovic propelled himself onto your radar?
Keith Law: He was already on my radar.

Pat D: I remember you had a harsh view of the current committees for HOF voting. I think that their ballot for this year has 4 guys who I could easily vote for (Evans, Simmons, Whitaker, Miller). Is it at least a decent ballot in your view?
Keith Law: Agreed, and I wouldn’t object to Simmons getting in.

Jacob Zaldin: What do you think is the biggest problem around the league right now? Do you think that the Nationals winning the WS and the subsequent articles ran about their use of old-fashioned scouting over analytics will affect how other teams operate?
Keith Law: I think those subsequent articles were about 90% bullshit, so, no, I don’t think so.

Tracy: Yan Gomes not in your Top 50 FA. Was your list compiled before the Nats declined his option or is he not in your top 50 b/c he’s not that good?
Keith Law: He’s not that good. I considered everyone with an option for the list and adjusted if I guessed wrong (I had Quintana on the list, for one).

Eric: Favorite something/other?
Keith Law: Oh definitely other. Big fan of other.

Hubert: Hi Keith, I was wondering how do you assess the Rays front office after the departure of Chaim Bloom?
Keith Law: He’s great, and I think he’ll do great things in Boston, but the Rays’ front office is very strong down into scouting and R&D and I think they can weather the loss.

Brandon J: I’m not suggesting that the dodgers don’t “go for it” every year, but if you were running the team, would you blast past the CBT to make a couple of big signings this offseason?
Keith Law: Yes.

John: Do you think Odorizzi gets signed to a long term deal with the draft pick penalty or is he a player better off taking the QO?
Keith Law: I would be concerned if he doesn’t get a long-term deal. That would feel suspicious to me.

Dave: Do you have a favorite album of 2019 or one you’re particularly looking forward to in 2020?
Keith Law: I will do my annual best albums of the year post in December; I have several candidates, with a bunch of new ones hitting the last few weeks (Alcest, White Reaper, Michael Kiwanuka).

AA: If you are the Braves would you rather sign Donaldson for 3 years or trade something like Fried and Wright for Kris Bryant?
Keith Law: I’m a big Fried booster so if that’s the requirement, I’d probably pay Donaldson. If they could trade Wright and two other pitchers below Fried, sure.

Jon V : What’s your view on Oscar Mercado? Can he take another step forward next year or was this year a peak performance type year? How about another reclamation project in Daniel Johnson? Indians seem to have quantity but maybe not quality in the OF
Keith Law: Mercado’s a starter in the long run, IMO, while I think Johnson is a fourth outfielder or platoon guy.

Jay: Any thoughts on why the Yankees didn’t give Didi a QO? Seemed strange he didn’t get one, and I feel like I’m missing something.
Keith Law: Same. Didn’t understand that at all.
Keith Law: Like, if he takes it, so what – isn’t one year of a healthy Gregorius at that salary a valuable commodity in trade?

BuccoFan: You worked with Tony LaCava in Toronto. Would he be a good fit as the Pirates GM? A lot rumors about him in the media
Keith Law: Yes, he absolutely would.

Dave: Your piece on the minor league realignment proposal indicated that you were (at least) sympathetic to the idea that the overall population size of the minor leagues is currently too large. From a baseball standpoint, do you have a sense of your ideal minor league population size (and, how that compares to now)? Clearly you’d want a population large enough to occasionally hit on ‘diamonds-in-the-rough’ or late bloomers, but not so large that (for instance) I’m pitching to your elite hitting prospects; but I don’t know how to go about figuring that out.
Keith Law: I don’t have a specific league/system size in mind, other than believing the current system is too large … we don’t need the Appy/Pioneer Level at all, although I think the Rockies should be mandated to add an AZL team in that case. I’d be fine with losing that level and having every MLB org have seven teams: DSL, complex, short-season, A, A+, AA, AAA. But I think some minor league contraction would also be a function of changing demographics and market sizes. Not every town with a team is capable of supporting that team at a financially sustainable level.

greg: what was your major in school and did you know what you were doing when you went in?
Keith Law: I started out as a government major (like political philosophy), switched to a joint sociology/economics major in my third semester, and I would say I still don’t actually know what I’m doing.

Noah: You know that Emmet is Hebrew for “truth”, right?
Keith Law: I did not know that, since I speak no Hebrew at all. Thanks.

Chuck: Is Tork going #1 or do the Tigers load up on pitching with Hancock?
Keith Law: You left out option C, which might be Austin Martin, or perhaps another candidate like JT Ginn if the changeup he’s flashed in the fall is still there when he starts.

Dave: As a relatively new subscriber, I’m enjoying the newsletter so far. Have you considered a section on what you’ve been cooking lately (specific dish, ingredient, technique)? I tend to enjoy your culinary content!
Keith Law: Good idea, thank you.

Morris: My parents never hit me, and I turned out fine
Keith Law: Funny how we don’t hear that line – it’s always the people who were spanked or otherwise received corporal punishment who insist they’re okay.

Zach D: So republicans don’t like the AZ election results because a democrat won when AZ is a “conservative State” because metro areas rule the elections. I can’t keep up with their nonsense anymore.
Keith Law: Vote them all out. There is no other solution; if they think this strategy keeps them in office, they will continue to pursue it. That’s only rational.

Scott: Austin Riley had an odd year. What do you ultimately see as his big league role?
Keith Law: Extra guy.

Jacob Z: What do you think is a good path to get into the industry? Is it really Ivy league/big name school or bust?
Keith Law: Data science. That’s where the jobs are.

Chuck: Does Josiah Gray make double digit starts for LA next year?
Keith Law: How about 2021 for that?

Sok: How egregious is it that Larry Walker is on his 10th HOF ballot? Guy was an absolute stud
Keith Law: I will vote for him; I think he’s deserving. Decent shot since it’s his last year and we did clear a few names last offseason. I have pondered my ballot and there’s a nonzero chance I’ll leave at least one spot blank. There are about eight definites, and then it falls off into borderline guys.

Sam: If you were the Yankees, would you rather give Cole a deal in the 7yr/$245M (35M/yr) range or give Wheeler and Odorizzi each a 4 year deal with a combined annual value of 35M/yr?
Keith Law: Cole. I mean, option 2 isn’t bad, but I think they need the frontline guy for the regular season AND postseason.

Vandal Cunningham: The Braves are allegedly prioritizing a front-line starter, but they’ll surely be out on Cole / Stras, and Bumgarner doesn’t fall into that category. Who can they realistically target? Is Syndergaard an option?
Keith Law: They’re well-positioned to acquire someone in trade rather than free agency (can’t imagine Liberty letting them go get one of those top SP).

Sam: As a Mets fan, am I crazy for wanting them to sign Gregorius and move McNeil to 3B and Rosario to 2B?
Keith Law: No. The one downside I would see is that you might stop Rosario’s development at SS – he was much better in the second half, and I think he can do it long-term.

Ira: Should the MLB have a spending floor to force teams to at least pretend to be competitive while also not letting them take advantage by collecting revenue sharing w/o spending money?
Keith Law: I don’t like the straight salary floor idea, which would provide incentive for teams to pay for veterans who aren’t necessarily any better than the younger players they’d be replacing. I would prefer a system that says, “OK, you can field whatever team you want, but if your total payroll for this year falls below $FLOOR, you pay the rest into a union fund that the PA would distribute to unsigned free agents.” That would solve the problem of teams just pocketing shared revenue without asking anyone to field a worse team just to spend more money.

Roger: Can’t too much go wrong with young pitching for the Red Sox to be like, “Ian Anderson is the main piece for Betts.” Wouldn’t they be better off getting Waters, if not Pache?
Keith Law: If your question is just position player vs pitcher, then yes, better to get the position player, all else being equal. In this case, the Red Sox have a more acute need for starting pitching than anything else, though.

Josh G.: current book you are reading? side note: how many books do you read at a time?
Keith Law: Usually one book/ebook and one audiobook at a time. I’m reading Mary Robinette Kowal’s The Calculating Stars and listening to Safiya Noble’s Algorithms of Oppression.
Keith Law: I think my next read will be The Cloven, the last book of the Vorrh trilogy.

Connor: You wrote “inconsistent arm swing” in George Kirby’s writeup in the top 100 draft prospects. Is that something that, if unaddressed/unchanged, you think will negatively affect his command?
Keith Law: Yes, that is the #1 concern with an inconsistent delivery.

Zach D: How is releasing a whistler blowers name not illegal? And now republicans plan to subpoena the individual in a public hearing. What a s-show
Keith Law: This is the world we chose in 2016.

Jeff: Just a Reds fan, reading an old Klaw article from 2012 with my “Insider” account. “Votto’s 10-year contract might look good for the next four or five seasons, but the deal threatens to be an albatross around the neck of a low-payroll team in a market that might generously be called middle of the pack“
Keith Law: I don’t even remember saying that, so thank you.

Millennium Sports: Hearing LHP Dan Tillo is up to 98 with a wipeout slider for Team USA. He a DUDE for you?
Keith Law: Wrote about him after seeing him in the AFL, where he was throwing harder than I’d ever seen (not 98, IIRC).

Eric: How sad that Bill Gates is so worried he may have to live on $8 billion dollars vs. $108 billion if Elizabeth Warren is elected, right?!
Keith Law: The struggle is real, my friends.

Matthew : Does caffeine help with memory and studying?
Keith Law: I sure hope so!

Josh G.: when is the next periscope happening?
Keith Law: I do not schedule those … it’s a matter of having the time, and the quiet around here.

Max: The Astros should be all over Jon Gray, right?
Keith Law: Did I suggest that last week? I feel like I did.

Geraldo: I have the flu and feel like crap. Tell me something good about the Giants to temporarily relieve my pain.
Keith Law: I have a lot of trust in Farhan to modernize this org and get them moving forward again.

Dan W.: Any thoughts on what happened at Deadspin and/or on the next best way forward for those of us who relied on it?
Keith Law: Follow those writers to their new spots, and read what they write. Also, pay for some content, somewhere. You probably pay for mine if you’re here, and I appreciate that. I pay for the Athletic, Baseball America, the Washington Post, and the New Yorker, plus a cooking magazine or two (Bon Appetit, at the moment). I want to support writers i like, and to support good journalism, period. The best way to do that is with my wallet.

Ryan: How is Wingspan as a 2 player game? My wife and I love Azul, which has been our first real venture into boards, so I’m wondering if Wingspan is worth the purchase or if I should go for 7W Duel instead, thanks for all your work!
Keith Law: Wingspan works well with 2, but 7WD is ‘optimized’ for two-player.

Portmantotebag: Can you give a Tigers fan any hope?
Keith Law: There’s some pitching coming.

OC Joe: Did you have any reaction to MLB’s proposal of a free agent multi-year deadline this winter, which would have come…I believe sometime in mid-December?
Keith Law: The dumbest fucking idea of the year … in a year of some DFIs. Teams would just refrain from offering multi-year deals till after the deadline.

Dave: Scale of 1-10, what’s your excitement for Rise of Skywalker?
Keith Law: 3 or 4.

GF: is there a way to view all the articles you have written over at espn? i just subscribed to espn+ and would like to do some reading of yours but i can’t find a way to view prior posts
Keith Law: There is not an easy way to do that. I’m sorry.
Keith Law: I have asked for an index page that just lists all my pieces chronologically, but was told no.

Andy: Keith–I’m in the same boat at Chris P from last week’s chat. I would much rather read your top 50 FA list than, eg, someone’s who was repeatedly fired for unethical behaviour and doesn’t believe in using evidence. If you don’t jump elsewhere, eg The Athletic, and re-up with ESPN can you please negotiate to be able to send subscription-fee newsletter your Insider content to foreigners?
Keith Law: I am sorry about this as well.

Brian: Keith, we know the idea of “momentum” is bunk in baseball. I know you’re not a huge fan of other sports, but do you think it’s possible that it has an effect on the outcomes of games in other sports, or does the data suggest it’s total nonsense?
Keith Law: I would insist on seeing evidence before believing it is anything other than woo.

TomBruno23: It’s me again saying thanks once more for the book recs…blew through The Queen this week. What a crazy, crazy story interwoven with US Social Welfare Policy.
Keith Law: So, so good. Also, congrats to Tom Baxter, who won our giveaway of a signed copy of The Queen, provided by Josh Levin & his publisher.

Sam: Can you please explain why you ranked wheeler over bumgarner? Virtually the same age, wheelers injuries have been more prevalent and baseball related than madbums and the actual performance year over year favors madbum? Madbum seems like a much safer investment than wheeler.
Keith Law: Wheeler is way better right now. He had ~5 mph more on his FB, was worth about 1.5 more WAR last year, started more games and threw a lot more innings the last two years. I don’t think this is even a little controversial.

Dave: Just for general knowledge, the Ryan Thibs tracker is live https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!17003&ithin…
Keith Law: Excellent, great resource. I always make sure Ryan has my ballot.

Jose: Where do you have Nick Neidert’s ceiling at?
Keith Law: Fourth starter.

RAWagman: If the launch angle revolution is not largely a function of the juiced ball, what impact does that have on the importance of fielders? Thanks, and good luck with the new book
Keith Law: Doesn’t it make them more important? Balls are being hit harder, and more frequently as line drives.

Linus: During the writing of your new book- how much did you interview researchers, or were you primarily reliant on their publications?
Keith Law: My interviews were with baseball people. I exchanged emails with a few researchers – I can think of two immediately – but largely relied on their published papers so that interested readers could follow up and read them if so inclined.

TomBruno23: Your “this tweet just won the 1985 NL MVP” tweet made me smile. Talked with Dave Parker at a card show in STL several years ago and made a point to bring that voting up. “I’ve read where you think you’d be the HOF if Willie McGee hadn’t stolen your 1985 NL MVP.” “Yeah, that’s right. Where you at, McGee?” as he’s mock looking around the room.
Keith Law: I’m not sure if that gets him in the Hall, but it wouldn’t have hurt his case, at least.

TestaDuda: It’s not my money, but doing the math based on known revenue streams and free agent variables and it seems like the Red Sox should be going for it all this year and then trying to get under the tax AFTER 2020. If free agency of Betts, JDM (opt out) and JBJ aren’t enough, Price and Sale have chances to prove health (reducing underwriting on a trade) plus a new CBA all seem to make sliding under more conducive after 2020. Agree?
Keith Law: Here’s my counter to that: Who pitches? Price isn’t 100%, Sale isn’t 100%. Eovaldi wasn’t good. They have one decent, healthy starter right now, and nobody coming out of the system to help them. If they keep Betts, can they build a contending rotation through trades and free agency?

xxx(yyy): bottom of the 9th, 1 run lead in Game 7 of the World Series…do you prefer the best starting pitcher in baseball to come in for 1 inning (say G Cole? Scherzer?) or the best “relief” pitcher to come in for 1 inning (say J Hader) to close it out? Why?
Keith Law: Would depend on matchups (if you have LHB coming up, you want Hader) and how much rest everyone has had.

Ben: Do you think Carter Kieboom could be an every day starter next year?
Keith Law: At 2b, I’d say a strong possibility. I don’t see where else he could reasonably play.

Eric: At early look of the HOF ballot, I think a good ballot would be: Bonds, Clemens, Jeter, Rolen, Sheffield, Walker, Andruw, Helton, Manny
Keith Law: That’s not a bad ballot at all. You do have some of the borderline guys I struggle with, though.

Austin L.: also, favorite baseball book ever?
Keith Law: Lords of the Realm is pretty great, if dated now.
Keith Law: If you want something recent, Alex Speier’s Homegrown was a great picture of how the Red Sox built the 2018 team, with a lot of inside information from their scouts & player development folks.

scott: when does your espn contract expire?
Keith Law: In (checks calendar) 54 days.

Connor: Keith, any tips for pizza dough? Mine frequently comes out a little to dense for my liking
Keith Law: Dense sounds like you’re overworking it a bit. Also would check your hydration levels.

Rob: Thoughts on the new Opeth album? And are you listening in Swedish or English?
Keith Law: English, and I was very disappointed after the first track. Too proggy without the metal.

thatssotaguchi : A loud segment of the St. Louis Cardinals fan base is appalled that Mozeliak was just extended. Good move for the team or nah?
Keith Law: Yes, good move. Mozeliak has done a very good job, as has Girsch. I didn’t get the Shildt extension after we all just saw him playing Candyland and making Snitker & Martinez look like they were playing Gloomhaven.

Bruce: Will the Reds move Nick Senzel to second base?
Keith Law: I’d like to see that; I don’t think CF is a great fit for him, although I worry 2b isn’t going to do anything to keep him off the IL.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all as always for reading, and for all of your questions. I’ll be back next week for another Klawchat and hope to start my annual offseason dish posts (top 100 games, cooking posts, etc.) next week. Enjoy the long weekend!

My second book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, will be out on April 21, 2020. You can pre-order it now on HarperCollins’ site.

I ranked the top 25 board games of the 2010s for Paste this week, and also wrote about some recent programming games, where players issue instructions as if they were writing code, over at Ars Technica.

Keith Law: Conquering the worm. Klawchat.

Joe Torre: No question…I just wanted to say Thank You to Anthony Rendon for bailing us out in Game 6
Keith Law: The umps got it right, though. The rule is pretty clear, and while it’s seldom invoked, the call on the field was correct – and not reviewable.

DF: Is the Pirates offense being held back by bad drafting or bad development? Picking guys with good bat to ball skills in the swing change era feels like to right approach to me, but it isn’t translating to the power numbers other teams are generating.
Keith Law: I think they had a development approach that gave up power for contact, but changed that last year.

Lee D, LA: Keith — Dodgers better off spending $200M+ on Cole than Rendon, right?
Keith Law: Not sure I agree – or disagree. Both would help.

Andy: To anyone who is happy about Deadspin dying: Do you work a job where a new boss came in, made a ton of changes that made the job less fun, less personal, and less profitable? Did you and your co-workers loudly complain about it, but ultimately did nothing? Well the writers of Deadspin didn’t. They left. It’s possible (even likely) to not agree with all the sites/writers decisions, and mourn the loss of a vibrant community somewhat related to sports.
Keith Law: Very well said. I wouldn’t say I liked all their content, or all of their writers, even. That is far from saying I don’t support them, or rue the absence of a site that revels in anti-authoritarian viewpoints.

Brian: Is the 2nd half of 2020 a realistic time frame to start seeing Lynch, Singer & Kowar brought up to the Royals or is 2021 more likely?
Keith Law: I expect them all to see the majors in 2020 if healthy.

TomBruno23: What should I tell my Royals friends who apoplectic with rage at the hiring of The Leader of Men?
Keith Law: … except that I’m not sure I want one of the worst tactical managers of the last decade doing anything with those young pitchers.

Tribe called jest: Better long term offensive profile, Abrams or Royce Lewis?
Keith Law: Lewis. But Abrams has more chance to play short.

Andy: I hope there’s a chapter in your next book about how teams make bad decisions based on interviews, instead of looking at the track record. I mean seriously, who can look at Matheny’s time at the Cardinals and think, that’s the guy who should be managing a young team?
Keith Law: Or any team, really. This is *such* a retrograde decision, and I think it’ll hold the Royals back for a while.

Karma1 Astros 0: Any chance for George Kirby to be more than a 4-5 starter?
Keith Law: Yes.

Lone Star: Higher on Jung or Baty at the plate? I know Jung is a better bet at defensive value.
Keith Law: Baty. I don’t agree with that on Jung; both may end up at 1b.

Sam: How does Cole not get in the game last night? There were multiple high leverage spots they could have used him and saving him for the lead also made no sense. Is there anything to the argument you want him to start an inning clean and not bring him in middle inning with runners on?
Keith Law: This to me is the only thing Hinch did wrong last night. Cole should have been in the game sooner. But ultimately the failing was on the players; Harris is a great reliever and didn’t execute. (Also, Kendrick hit a pretty good pitch.) Harris gets that additional out and we’re not having this conversation.

Devon: True or False: the best part of the World Series was Trump and friends getting booed?
Keith Law: False. Although I think it’s perfectly fine that he was booed. The civility pearl-clutchers really lost their moral high ground when Trump mocked a disabled reporter.

Concerned Fan: What can MLB really do to the Astros about their pretty clear and brazen negative culture in their front office? Obviously they could dock them draft picks or apply some other punitive penalty, but how do you actually *fix* that?
Keith Law: I can’t agree with the premise – we don’t really know about their culture; I think you’re inferring something that might be true and it might not – but *IF* the culture is negative and pervasive, you target the people at the top who created and/or tolerated it.

Bruce: I’m a lover of non-fiction and have recently read a couple of books you reviewed including Bad Blood and Amity and Prosperity. Both were great – can you recommend any others that you enjoyed?
Keith Law: Just recently: Billion-Dollar Whale, The Queen, The Drunkard’s Walk, The Rise & Fall of the Dinosaurs, Big Chicken.

Bruce: Josh Hader for Corey Seager?
Keith Law: I would not trade Seager, a potential 7-WAR everyday player, for any reliever.

Braves: What do you think the Braves rotation looks like by mid-next year? Only three guys I feel (somewhat) confident in are Soroka, Fried, and Folty, but each have some red flags. Apparently Newcomb wants to try starting again, but where do you they the additional 2-3 starters they’ll need to get through the year come from?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t mind seeing them add an innings guy to back up that group, which could also include Touki or Wright or Wilson at some point.

Dr. Bob: I don’t believe in Karma so the Nats win was not caused by Houston’s Taubman fiasco. But I have to admit to a little schadenfreude over the whole thing.
Keith Law: Agreed. The team that traded for Osuna, then proclaimed a “zero tolerance” policy on domestic violence, then taunted a reporter who took a strong, principled stand on the matter, lost, and the pitcher who recorded the last out for the other team is a two-time TJ recipient who was criticized for leaving the team to go attend to the birth of his child. Sometimes the story just works out.

Greg P: Klaw – will the balls be switching back to 2018 levels next year? Does MLB have any idea what their balls are doing?
Keith Law: So, we’re just not doing phrasing any more?
Keith Law: I get the sense MLB wants to restore the baseball’s physical characteristics to pre-2019 levels.

Steve: Have you read Poz’s Houdini book yet? Picked it up this week and it’s riveting so far.
Keith Law: Yes, tore through it in about four days. Really enjoyed it – but I just happen to really like Joe’s writing, too.

The Pirate Parrot: Meadows, Glasnow, and Baz for Archer? Who says no? ???
Keith Law: No takebacks!

Epsthoyet: Do I take a chance on an import and use only cash to get Shogo Akiyama to fill a couple of holes, or do I once again deplete my farm system and trade for Merrifield? I may have a cheaper and younger Merrifield on my team already in Hoerner though, no?
Keith Law: No idea if Merrifield is even available, but I wouldn’t trade multiple prospects for him. He’s helpful, but not the solution.

Nelson: Strasburg can do better than 4/100 on the market this winter, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

JR: Cole going to be well rested for opening day for his new team. Kidding aside, do you think Cole told the coaches he didn’t have it, or did AJ mess this up?
Keith Law: I did wonder if Cole said he couldn’t go – or even declined to pitch – and Hinch is covering for his guy. No idea, though.

Frank: We know the Giants are going to give bumgardner a QO. If you are them would you give one to Will Smith as well?
Keith Law: Probably not, but Smith is pretty good as relievers go. Just not sure he’s worth the QO salary.

Pat D: How much did this World Series increase the likelihood of robo-umps in the near future?
Keith Law: I hope by 1000%.

Mike: Will JD opt out?
Keith Law: I’m assuming yes.

Eric: Who’s reading the audio version of the new book?
Keith Law: Don’t know yet. I think we decided that in January last time around?

jack: I want to get into reading novels… any first suggestions?
Keith Law: Depends on what you like. I really got into reading in high school with science fiction, especially Asimov’s Foundation novels. They just spoke to me, but they might not speak to you. I imagine there’s a whole generation of readers out there who fell in love with books through Harry Potter.

Mike: With Brandon Marsh having a great fall league, where is he looking to be at in the Top 100?
Keith Law: Fall league performances don’t affect my rankings. He was already on the top 100, FYI.

XyXyX: What do you do this offseason if you are Texas? Houston is still a monster, they’ve got some interesting young players but they all have big questions, and the farm system is just so-so. Do you spend big this offseason with a new park opening up and try to build on a surprising 2019, or do you punt 2020 and look to contend again in 2021 or beyond?
Keith Law: Can’t imagine them punting, but I don’t think they can spend their way to contention in one offseason. Would imagine they’d make one big splash, to try to be more competitive in 2020, while also trying to build.

Mike: Weird question: need a good iPhone case — suggestions??
Keith Law: Not weird at all. I have an inexpensive case from tech21 that has protected my phone many times, plus a ZAGG screen protector (lifetime warranty, and I have absolutely used that feature).

HH: For those of us who will miss baseball until February: the Australian Baseball League is a nascent league with their season during US winters. They stream most games on youtube and it’s awesome to watch a league grow up before your eyes. Highly recommended (and I’m just a fan.)
Keith Law: Very true. Some MLB teams have sent prospects or fringe guys there to get them more playing time.

Raul: Obvs Cole and Stras make sense for the Padres. But so do Wheeler and Odorizzi. Do those types of arms push San Diego into WC contention if signed?
Keith Law: It’s all “yes if” for them. If Tatis Jr plays a full season, if Urias hits like he did throughout the minors, if one of their existing young starters takes a step forward, then they’re a player or two away from 90+ wins.

Zach D: So this is an overly simplified question, but which situation is better for manager – Mets or Phillies. (Roster, payroll, farm, ownership. Not media or family factors)
Keith Law: Philly.

Jon Coleman: You like the Bloom hire for Boston? How extreme do you think the makeover will be?
Keith Law: Love the hire. He’ll be great. I expect small changes at first, and never a big makeover.

Wamco: I cannot understand why people seem to hate Bryce Harper so much….why do you think that is?
Keith Law: I think because he was so good so young, and was kind of unapologetic about it. And now because he makes so much money. Those are not good reasons.

HeHateMeTeam: Do you ever get irritated about how intense people react to your opinions and preferences? Whether it’s your disinterest in The Sopranos or your preference for toolsy, high-ceiling prospects affecting minor differences in your rankings, people seem to go nuts over subjective topics.
Keith Law: Irritated is probably not the right word; flummoxed, maybe. Note that this almost never happens in person, though – it’s only online.

Paul: The Giants’ managerial search is “focused on” Joe Espada, Gabe Kapler, and Pedro Grifol (source: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/sources-giants-down-three-can…). Who gets your vote?
Keith Law: Big Kapler fan. He was the scapegoat in Philly, and definitely not the reason the team didn’t get to the playoffs this year. Has strong developmental experience too, which is a good fit for the Giants going forward.

E: Almost through Why We Sleep based on your recommendation. Love it. I feel like it should be required reading for every high school student in the country.
Keith Law: And every school administrator who thinks a 7:25 am start time for high school is appropriate.

Carl c: You hinted for weeks that you were reading The Unbearable Lightness of Being, but I never saw the review
Keith Law: Right here.

Bob Pollard: Unanswerable question perhaps, but assuming the Happy Fun Ball goes away, how do we even evaluate players like Soler, Schwarber, Garver, etc., moving forward? Are breakouts legit or do we have to look at them with a blanket skepticism?
Keith Law: I feel better about guys who we know had power, like the first two, than the guys who could hit and suddenly developed power, like Garver.

Raul: Half of Padres land is upset that Tingler, an unknown, was brought in instead of a “proven” guy like Washington, and that Preller is crazy considering ownership is seemingly getting impatient. My thought process is if you’re gonna lose your job, may as well go with the guy who best fits what you’re looking for instead of a name manager, right?
Keith Law: I’m a big Tingler fan, both from having met him and from his resume with Texas. Fans who don’t like a managerial hire who’s “unknown” are making a simple mistake: Just because YOU don’t know who the guy is doesn’t mean the industry doesn’t know who he is.

Jesse B : Are the WhiteSox close enough that if they grabbed Gerritt Cole they could make a playoff run this year, or are they a year away from making moves like that, ala the Cubs?
Keith Law: I think Cole or Strasburg to the White Sox would make them fringe contenders.

Brint: When do you think Spencer Howard joins the Phillies’ rotation full-time?
Keith Law: If healthy, by end of summer.

Jay: Do you think Kingery’s strong year will lead to regular playing time for a 20/20 in 2020? Pun most definitely intended
Keith Law: He has the speed for the SBs but I’ve had a hard time seeing how he’d get to 20 HR in the majors (Happy Fun Ball aside).

Brett: If you were running a front office, what effect (if any) would MLB’s ball shenanigans have on your roster/FA planning this year.
Keith Law: I’d just be wary of assuming any HR spikes from 2019 were real, and ask my R&D guys to make sure any projections accounted for this uncertainty. Also, I’d consider looking at pitchers who may have been inordinately hurt by the altered baseball – slider guys whose sliders backed up, for example.

Alex: I enjoyed your paste article on board games! Was wondering if you saw the list on greatest novels of the 2010s. What did you think? The Goldfinch was a bit high for me
Keith Law: Looking now, that’s a great list. Lincoln in the Bardo would be a contender for #1. Swamplandia! was just not that good. Station Eleven is amazing. I’ve read 7 of the top 10, then I taper off. The Night Circus is also too high. Swing Time and Americanah seem like they’re placed where they are because of who wrote them, not because they were that good. Biggest omission for me is In the Light of What We Know. I’d also throw All the Light We Cannot See and An Unkindness of Ghosts on there too.

Matt: But what happens if the owner is the one that created/tolerated that behavior? You can’t just Donald Sterling every owner that’s a prick.
Keith Law: No, but there are more remedies than just firing someone/forcing an owner to sell.

Bill: Odds we see Mackenzie Gore in the rotation midseason next year?
Keith Law: Nonzero, below 50/50.

Eric: Any consolation to be found for Braves fans today? They were a better team than the Nats all year, only to blow it vs. a pretty beatable Cardinals team in the NLDS. Every NLE team has won a pennant since they last won a WS game, and thrice now they’ve seen a team they finished ahead of in the standings go on to win the series as a wild card.
Keith Law: Nats were much better built for October, though: strong front 3 in the rotation, more patient heart of the lineup. Could see Atlanta getting there if Soroka stays healthy, Fried keeps growing as a pitcher, and one of Touki/Wright/Anderson/Wilson hits their ceiling.

Matt: In your video chat the other day, you mentioned that Carlson probably won’t see MLB in 2020 because he is only 20 yo and finished year in AA. In fact, he’s 21 and finished season in AAA. Not trying to “well actually” you, just curious if that changes his ETA for you at all?
Keith Law: He played at 20 all season; he only turned 21 last week. I use seasonal ages when discussing players. And he played all of 18 games in AAA, which, while I should have acknowledged it, is a drop in the ocean.

Andy: Despite the FO saying otherwise, seems like Cleveland will listen on Lindor. At this point do you agree with some patch that splits the middle, trying to keep competitive? Or should they just go full-on rebuild?
Keith Law: They should explore trading him now, while his value might be at a peak. Could sustain the franchise for multiple years if you make the right trade.

Buctober: Obviously accounting for your personal connection to with, curious what about Tony LaCava’s skill set would or wouldn’t make him a good GM for the Pirates now.
Keith Law: It’s a bit glib, but the two things that most sunk the Pirates recently were poor returns on trades and position players failing to develop as expected. Lacava certainly has strength in the latter, given his long player development experience. The former could be scouting, analytics, decision-making structure, or some of all of those things; I would say Tony is strongest in the third, also has long experience with the first, and showed real affinity for using analytical tools back when I worked with him in the mid-2000s.
Keith Law: I’m always wary of over-endorsing people I know well, and he was a mentor to me in Toronto, so I absolutely have a conflict when discussing him … but the Pirates would be terribly remiss if they didn’t at least interview him for the position.

Andrew: Any names to look out for in the upcoming Rule 5 draft?
Keith Law: Those rosters won’t be set for three more weeks.

Matt: What is the players union going to do about younger players not getting paid? Aaron Judge can be the face of MLB for 5 years and by the time he faces FA, no team offers him a long term deal because of his age.
Keith Law: Raising the minimum salary or adding salary arbitration for 2+ players (not just super-2 guys) would help.

Dax: Could Mike Montgomery put in a solid year as a starter in KC next year? Probably helps that he’ll no longer bounce back and forth between being a starter and a reliever.
Keith Law: I still think he’s best cast as a long relief guy.

Sean: Regarding your new book, based on the title alone I’m expecting some good analysis of, and references to the psychology of decision making. Can you shed any light on how in depth that gets? Can’t wait to read it.
Keith Law: That’s the idea, focusing on cognitive biases and illusions rather than, say, the neuroscience of decision-making. I rely a lot on popular and scholarly literature on these biases, describing how they were first identified and explaining them in lay terms. I love Thinking Fast and Slow, but that’s not a book for everybody.

JP: it appears the Red Sox did not interview a minority candidate before hiring their new Chief Baseball Officer. will MLB do anything about that?
Keith Law: There is no firm rule like the NFL has. Did they interview anyone else? I never heard another name, just that they interviewed Bloom and hired him.

Michael: Do you have any links to pieces or stories criticizing Hudson for missing game 1 of the NLCS? All I have read/heard is responses to criticism but I haven’t read any actual stories of criticism.
Keith Law: I linked to one two Saturdays ago here on the dish.

Michael: New place for your SD trip, Cafe Calabria (I think). Only certified Napolese pizza maker in SD and it rivals Bianco. In North Park, just tried it Friday
Keith Law: Much appreciated, thanks.

Ryan: I’m starting to become optimistic that Ivan Herrera will actually become a major league catcher. Do I need to slow down a bit or is he legit?
Keith Law: He’s interesting. And they sure do know how to make catchers over there.

Jordan: What did you think of Cole saying he’s not an employee of the Astros anymore and wearing a Boras Corp hat during his press conference? S
Keith Law: ?

Todd: Peter Luger’s Brooklyn got slammed in a new review. What say you?
Keith Law: I’ve never been, and since I don’t eat beef, I never will. Also, who the fuck doesn’t accept credit cards in 2019?

Zach D: Re: Astros Karma. Don’t forget blocking access for a Detroit reporter trying to do their job.
Keith Law: That never seemed to get any public resolution, but I hope MLB (and the BBWAA) don’t just drop that.

Johnny: Recent J2 classes have been producing super stars like Tatis, Soto, Vlad and more on the way like Wander, Robert, Kristian, Julio…etc. Has scouting gotten much better in recent years where top rated J2 players are converting into major leaguers? How early do you peg top prospects status on players from these classes?
Keith Law: Players in general are becoming highly productive big leaguers younger than in the past … but it’s just the guys at the top of the J2 classes, right? It’s not throughout those groups, but the stars who emerge faster. And I do think some of that is just better training, nutrition, etc. from trainers in the major countries that produce players.
Keith Law: I saw Erick Pena (KC) earlier this month. He’s 16, and while he has the baby face you’d expect, that is some kind of build on a kid that young.

Harry: When does the KLT100 drop this year?
Keith Law: I assume around February 1st. Not entirely my call.

Matt: At what point does the GOP stop attacking the impeachment process and start addressing the facts? Never?
Keith Law: Never.

Paul: Final half season of Bojack Horseman – Yay or neigh…
Keith Law: Never seen it. I did enjoy S1 of Big Mouth – just waiting for my girlfriend to catch up before we start S2 (and so I can discuss my favorite line with her).

Michael: Why don’t the Deadspin folk just start their own website and own it? Is it that expensive to do that it would be cost prohibitive?
Keith Law: It requires capital that most people don’t just have lying around.

Grover: Did it feel like people were really trying to will the “Bryce Harper must be so bitter/mad/jealous right now!” thing into existence the last week or two? Isn’t it possible he’s genuinely happy for his former teammates, and also fine with the decision he made last winter?
Keith Law: I’m sorry, that take is way too mature and tepid for online discourse. Please put your traybake back in the oven for another ten minutes and try again.

John Zirinsky: Keith: Would you give 8 years/$300 million to Cole if you felt like he was the one missing piece, or do you think spreading that around is a better play?
Keith Law: I would. He’s a difference-maker.

Jon: Did you get to see Forrest Whitley at all in the AFL? Any thoughts on what realistic expectations should be for him next season and beyond?
Keith Law: Yes, I led my AFL post with him. Stuff was all still there.

Ridley: Thank you for not sticking to baseball. FWIW, I’m excited about the new book and of the opinion that having all of these other interests makes all your writing, even the strictly baseball stuff, more interesting.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I do hope this book opens more possibilities for me to write about non-sportsball topics (well, aside from board games).

Sedona: i would love to hear you on a fantasy baseball podcast!! Some of your industry colleagues participate. Will you consider it?
Keith Law: I don’t play fantasy sports and haven’t for almost 20 years now, so, no, probably not.

John: Odorizzi QO seems like a no brainer. Will anyone sign him away from the Twins if he gets it?
Keith Law: Yes. They absolutely should offer.

Bruce: Yasmani Grandal was fantastic for the Brewers last year but will be 31 years old next season. Is he worth a 3-4 year contract at that age and will he get one?
Keith Law: The gap between the industry view of him and the online community’s (stat-based, especially framing-based) view of him is wider than it is on any other free agent, I think.

Al: I have heard of why we sleep. From what author however, there are several similar titles. Thanks
Keith Law: Matthew Walker. Reviewed it here.

Arnold: Did this World Series validate the importance of starting pitching over what seemed to be a growing preference for strong bullpens and openers?
Keith Law: It helped the cause of the starter, rather than validating it or disproving the alternative.

Zach D: School start time. Isn’t the rationale that school has to start somewhat around the time that adults start work? If school doesn’t start until 9am, and I have to leave my house at 7am for work. Then I need 2hrs of day care each morning to get my kid on the bus?
Keith Law: We’re talking about teenagers, whose circadian rhythms run later than those of younger kids or adults.

Anchen: How does this year’s free agent crop compare to last year? Machado/Harper/Corbin vs Strasburg/Cole/Rendon. Probably would go with last year mostly because of age of the two main stars but this year looks pretty strong as well.
Keith Law: I think it’s a little deeper past the top three this year than last.

Chris P: ESPN cut off my access to Insider earlier this year and I can’t reactivate it because I’m in Canada. It’s really going to suck the most in February when I can’t read your prospect lists, even though I want to give the company money just for that. I don’t have a question, just hoping you can let your bosses know that they are missing out on international reader’s money.
Keith Law: They’re aware, but I don’t think there’s a solution in sight. I’m sorry.

Brent: What do you like about Kapler? Phillies fans were almost all happy to see him gone. Over the top positivity, not holding players accountable, horrendous game day decisions. Girardi isn’t an upgrade? Find that hard to believe.
Keith Law: Wait, positivity is bad? Only in Philly.
Keith Law: The not holding players accountable thing is nonsense, BTW. That feels like a take distilled through the dirty filter of sports radio.

Frank: Is Marco Luciano a GUY or to early to tell?
Keith Law: He’s a prospect. Too early to juice him like, say, Wander at that age.

Harry: Alex Rodriguez made a comment do Juan Soto post game “are you sure youre 21, can I see some ID, hahaha” A joke, but one in poor taste IMO. Any pushback?
Keith Law: I’m surprised that A-Rod didn’t ask Martinez about how valuable it was to have a lead that was an even number.

Pat D: On a scale of 1-14, how shocked are you that Republicans are still whining about the “process” after today’s vote? Gotta be a negative number, right?
Keith Law: Yep.
Keith Law: Y I K E S.

Erik: movies on your docket to see before “awards season” I always appreciate your reviews
Keith Law: Short term: The Lighthouse, Parasite (I couldn’t swing it this week), Dolemite is My Name, Frankie, The Irishman, The Laundromat (I hear it’s not good, I’ll probably still watch it). More coming the next few weeks though.

Ryan: Hi Keith, you seem to be fairly high on Kapler as a managerial candidate. I am curious if his handling of abuse allegations in the minor leagues from 2015 would concern you at all if you were a member of an organization considering hiring him. Im sure you probably know more about that situation than I do, so wanted to get your thoughts on Kapler’s past and how I should view him from someone whose opinions I respect greatly and generally align with my values.
Keith Law: The public story on that is simply false. He didn’t cover anything up; from talking to multiple people involved, including Kapler, it sounds like he handled it appropriately, and the subsequent accusations, which come from an employee the Dodgers fired, are not accurate. If this were a story, I’d write it, and certainly wouldn’t support a candidate who’d mishandled such cases. I believe I have the facts, however, and that just isn’t what happened.

Chris: So, I pre-ordered the Kindle version of the book. Just curious how much of a difference the paper vs digital purchase makes to the author. Thanks!
Keith Law: Virtually none, but I appreciate you asking.

HH: Feel free to punt here, but I’ve been very curious how many copies of Smart Baseball sold and there doesn’t seem to be a good way to find out. (This is just idle curiosity, since you’re the only author I know, and I have zero sense of the scale of the book market.)
Keith Law: It would actually take me a little while to get a precise number. I do get royalty statements, which do tell me that number, but it’s not easy to get to.
Keith Law: I have to take a call right now, so I have to wrap this up. Thank you all for reading, and for all your interest in my upcoming book. My rankings of the top 50 free agents should be up for ESPN+ subscribers on Tuesday, and I’ll chat at some point shortly after that. Enjoy your weekends!

Starting at 1 pm ET. My latest board game review for Paste covers Matt Leacock’s Era: The Medieval Age, an update of his Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age that lets you build your own little fiefdom with 3D plastic buildings on a peg board.

Keith Law: Call them up, tell them about the new trends. Klawchat.

addoeh: MLB’s showcase event is going on. But instead of that, we have Brandon Taubman showing the world he is a complete ass, the Astros seeing nothing wrong with what he said, and Rob Drake itching to start a ‘cival’ war. I can’t blame Manfred is he’s shouting “what the f*ck” at no one in particular today.
Keith Law: Indeed. From a straight publicity perspective, the start of MLB’s showcase event – which features one of the best teams ever against a franchise from a city that hasn’t won a World Series since 1925 – has been a nightmare. And I won’t blame Manfred if he shouts that phrase at the Astros, who bungled the Taubman thing from the get-go. Put him on administrative leave, say you’re investigating, issue a blanket apology, and the issue withers.

Bill: Enjoyed your AFL writeup and was interested in more about Josh Lowe. Will he slow down given his size? What type of slash would you expect from him in his prime?
Keith Law: We all slow down eventually but I don’t think that’s a near-term concern for Lowe. I could see middling average, good OBP with power. Those guys were usually .250/.340/.500+ before the Happy Fun Ball.

Greg: Is Girardi a good hire for the Phils? Are am I just more relieved/thrilled they didn’t hire Dusty “Basecloggers are bad” Baker?
Keith Law: I think Girardi fits the profile of a guy who’ll be much better the second time around (technically third, but year one hardly counts). Baker would have been a fine choice for that club. The hazard they avoided was Showalter, who I think would have been a very poor fit for their current roster.

Kris: Raimfer Salinas project as an everyday player?
Keith Law: Too far away & inexperienced to put that specific a grade on him.

Rob in WI: Like you, I think it’s better if a new manager has had previous managing experience. But is the trend of someone starting in a Front Office and working into the dugout (The Counsell Method?) possibly an effective one if it streamlines the communication of the Front Office and the Clubhouse? (I have other concerns about David Ross, but I guess that’s aspect is a plus?). Thanks for the chats, Keith.
Keith Law: I think we have one successful example, Counsell, who still took a few years to develop into a competent tactical manager, and that’s nowhere near enough. And Ross wasn’t even a full-time front office person.

Greg: I sort of can’t believe it’s now an open question whether the Mets or Phillies manager position was the more attractive. I know he’s not a Wilpon and he helped land Harper, but do you see Middleton as overstepping in the managerial choices? The retread manager seems like a classic overcorrection. Maybe the Kapler hire didn’t work out, but I don’t think the overall philosophy was wrong. Just the personnel.
Keith Law: IMO, the Kapler hire worked out fine. He was fired because the pitching staff fell apart, and I don’t see how that’s his fault.

Moe Mentum: Francis Ford Coppola doesn’t like Marvel movies. Why is this a news story?
Keith Law: I really have no idea. I don’t even really care for Marvel movies, but this is definitely a “sssh … let people enjoy things” moment.

Ron: Kiriloff will be in the majors next July, next September or not at all?
Keith Law: Second half. Depends on his health and where the Twins are.

Regression to the mean: Good to see you, Gerrit, it’s been quite a while.
Keith Law: It’s hard to say from watching on TV but I thought he was overthrowing (overrotating his hips?) and it cost him command.

Ridley: I imagine you’re going to get a lot of questions like this, but that’s never stopped me before: Has there been a darker day for American democracy than yesterday?

The President’s attorney argued that the President not only can’t be prosecuted while in office; he can’t even be investigated.

Meanwhile, a gaggle of Republicans broke into a secure area brandishing cell phones, knowingly breaking the law, in an attempt to invalidate the impeachment process. This despite the fact that many of them were actually entitled to be in the hearings and that the doors were closed to non-committee members as per a rule created by John Boehner.

I’m hesitant to say we’ve reached the bottom, but I’m pretty sure we can see it from here.
Keith Law: The failure of the rest of the Republican party to condemn that little circus – led by perhaps their most embarrassing member – is the most disturbing part. Nothing matters as long as you cling to power.

Bmosc: Gut instinct on where Cole is 2020? If they strike out on him, are there any contingency plans for the Yanks that you think close the gap b/w them/Houston? Also, just announced Hicks is out 8-10 months b/c of TJ surgery. Gardner/Maybin back now or other attractcive options?
Keith Law: Still think Cole has at least as good a chance to end up with the Angels as the Yanks. Quite a few outfield options available to them if they fear Gardner’s age; would expect them to go outside for that.

Brian: Did Hinch panic a little in the 7th? The intentional walk to Soto made no sense given the situation.
Keith Law: I didn’t like the IBB but I understood him trying to get to a platoon advantage there while avoiding a high-OBP, high-damage hitter against whom they didn’t seem to have a great attack plan. He wasn’t the winning run, which to me makes it a tolerable move rather than a dangerously wrong one.

JP: better trade chip for the Mets: JD Davis or Dom Smith? Seems right now neither will have a spot in the field with Alonso taking 1B and Davis not a great glove anywhere.
Keith Law: Smith. Younger, better fielder, year seems less fluky to me.

Juwan: How much has Soto exceeded your expectations? I know that you liked him as a prospect but had him slightly below the elite tier of Tatis, Vlad jr and Acuna. Are you surprised at his ascension?
Keith Law: I am quite surprised. Way better plate discipline than he ever showed in A-ball.

T: Are you worried about the future of the sport? Between the continuing DV problems, and the more transparent-than-ever anti-labor attitudes prevailing (in terms of service time manipulation and valuing ownership profits over on-field product), and now this whole juiced/not-juiced ball…it seems like the entire sport is at a bit of a crossroads, no?
Keith Law: My worries are much more about the on-field product’s appeal and the potential that we’re pricing future fans out of the ballpark than serious but transient issues like DV (which has always been there, it just feels bigger now because these incidents make news & fans are vocal about them).

Gloria: Is there any hope for curing the misinformed Drake’s of the world? It’s one thing to not support impeachment, but a whole other to falsely believe that the GOP isn’t part of the process, it’s all being done secretly, etc. Or is there no hope b/c Fox News and GOP members themselves spew these lies?
Keith Law: From an MLB perspective, he probably needs to be given a very long time off, and required to refrain from posting on any social media.

CP: Any reason for hope of a championship in the next 20 years if you’re a Pirates fan?
Keith Law: Sure. Franchises have turned around in less than half of that time.

Timmins: What’s a realistic AAV we can expect for Cole? Will someone toss him an 8/240 type deal?
Keith Law: I think he’s getting that and maybe more. Maybe more like 6-7 years but a higher AAV. Would be shocked if he comes in under $30MM/year.

Mike: Keith, the Mets have Rosario at SS & 2 of their top prospects are SS also. Gimenez is hopefully a year or 2 away & Mauricio right behind him. Would it be prudent (insert Met joke here) to see if one of them can play OF, where there is a lack of prospects in the system? Of course it’s the Mets, so one might get moved for an overpaid reliever.
Keith Law: Gimenez just isn’t the same caliber of prospect as the other two; he’s there but not really relevant. Rosario’s second-half improvement is enough to leave him at short for the next year, at the least, and Mauricio is 2-3 years away, so you have plenty of time to let that resolve itself. If that makes Gimenez a trade piece, great. They’re already in for a few pennies on 2020.

Eric: Juan Soto should be the face of baseball for the next decade, but some dope pitcher is going to throw at him for having fun, then he’ll be ripped by “old-school” dopes and they’ll ruin our fun.
Keith Law: You know what’s weird? George Springer didn’t run that game 1 double out, and I didn’t hear broadcasters or read mainstream writers complaining about how he was ruining the sport. What’s the difference between him and Ronald Acuña or Manny Machado? No puedo identificarlo.

Rob : Any thoughts on the Padres managerial hire. At least he does have *some* managerial experience?
Keith Law: Great hire. Tingler has real managing experience and developmental experience, and that’s what the Padres need in the next two years. Green is like Kapler to me – the fans blamed him when the reality is the team wasn’t good enough to contend this year, and the manager wasn’t the reason they didn’t. Tingler seems like a great choice to shepherd the development of Tatis Jr., Urias, Gore, Patiño, etc. as the team starts to move more towards contention this year.

Tim: Is there any hope left for Corey Ray?
Keith Law: Not much, but nonzero chance.

Nate: What’s the ceiling for Eric pardinho?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation if everything works out. High floor, not high ceiling.

TP: How does eliminating 42 minor league teams help to grow the popularity of the game? I get some of the facility and travel arguments, but it seems an easier fix would be realignment and MLB teams paying for upgrades. Oh wait, maybe $ is the real issue here…
Keith Law: Nobody’s going to see most of those 42 franchises. I posted some of their attendance figures; they’re not attracting fans as it is.

Kyle: Klaw, The Mets drafted Jake Mangum last year in the 4th round. Can he be anything more than a 4th OF? The system is lacking in OF depth.
Keith Law: That’s his best case scenario for me.

Vander: Quick thoughts about Jose Israel Garcia? Has he become a guy?
Keith Law: Absolutely a GUY. Maybe their top healthy prospect right now.

hotshots1812: I know you generally prefer guys with past managing experience at some level but how do you feel about someone like Tim Bogar who has been a big league coach for ~10 years? Is an extended time as a big league coach roughly equivalent to managing a few years in the minors?
Keith Law: I don’t think I have enough data to answer that.

Jesse B : Assuming good health, is Adrian Morejon the Padres #3 behind Gore and Paddack in 2021?
Keith Law: If they try to make any kind of trade for an impact player this winter, I bet Morejon is in it.

T: Better baseball name right now than Jayce Tingler?
Keith Law: I saw Jax Biggers in the AFL.

AZ: Best 2019 movie you’ve seen so far?
Keith Law: I’ve only seen four, I think, but the good stuff is hitting theaters here now. Hoping to see Parasite Tuesday.

E: Prior to the W.S. the odds were around +195 for WAS and -220 for HOU. While Houston is the better overall team, who would bet on 2:1 odds in a 7 game series when the other team is a formidable opponent?
Keith Law: Those odds seem totally irrational to me. I’m listening to Leonard Mlodinow’s The Drunkard’s Walk right now, and he walks through this exact scenario; I think he’d agree 2:1 series odds would be bonkers.

TomBruno23: Is there a player of your youth that you thought was really good but when you look back on his sabermetrics now you think, “Well, maybe he wasn’t so good after all.”? For me it’s Vince Coleman.
Keith Law: Andre Dawson.

Maximus: Who is getting the job in Boston? I’m a Romero backer.
Keith Law: Every name I’ve heard is someone from outside the org. Jed Hoyer’s name comes up a lot. I don’t know if that’s real or just because he used to work there.

Robbie: Having been able to see prospects get their first taste of pro-ball (albeit a clear SSS), which teams would you say at this point had your top 3 ranked draft classes from this past year?
Keith Law: I would not change any answers based on such tiny samples.

Stephen: If you were Andrew Friedman, what would you do this offseason? Should the Dodgers just run it back, or actually try and chase the Yankees and Angles on Cole or go after Rendon?
Keith Law: Go for it. Team is built to win now. And accept that Kershaw isn’t what he was, which means signing Cole or Strasburg or Ryu, or trading for someone comparable.
Keith Law: I hear they want Rendon, who is a superstar, but they have a surfeit of infielders and I think they need more help in the rotation.

John: RE: Taubman… looks like the Astros might have karma against them this series.
Keith Law: I don’t believe that for a second. The Nats have just outplayed them.

Guest: If you’re Rendon, do you re-sign with the Nationals, knowing they have Turner, Soto, Robles, and the rotation, or do you maybe go somewhere else to either be the man or put a team over the hump? As a Nats fan I know what the easy answer is for me.
Keith Law: He’s taking the most money. I guarantee that, and why not? I would do the same.

Dean M: Hey Keith. I consider you as my top Scouting Dept and you helped me dominate for years. Just wanted to say thank you and keep up the great work!! Just one question… do you think Chris Sale’s best days are behind him? Or is this season just a one yr injury write off? Thanks again!!!
Keith Law: I don’t know – if he had just had elbow surgery, I’d be more comfortable saying he’ll bounce back in 2021, but now I really can’t guess.

Thomas: When it comes to positional prospects, the Tigers have nothing notable in their farm system (and nothing close to ML ready). The rebuild is probably behind schedule as a result. Should they be looking to trade someone like Faedo or Burrows for a hitting prospect or two? Or hang on for a couple years and see if the next two drafts help fill out the system.
Keith Law: Neither of those guys has enough value to get the hitting prospect you need.

Gloria: Fact or fiction? If the Pirates stayed the course and kept all of their guys (and got better coaches) they would have been contenders this year?
Keith Law: That’s two huge ifs together.

kglue: Speaking of Soto and plate discipline more generally, is there an asymmetric payoff coming into play? e.g. if you strikeout a lot but also hit a ton in the minors, you’ll get promoted with the thought, “they’ll get better at pitch recognition or plate discipline”, but that if you walk a ton and don’t show hit or power tools, you probably don’t get promoted. Kind of the old adage that no one walks their way off the island.
Keith Law: That was probably true 20 years ago, but far less so today.

Benji: Without much change in performance next year, what are your thoughts in general on George Springer as a FA next winter? Do you think his skill set will age well into his early-mid thirties or is any team likely going to regret committing to him long term?
Keith Law: Definitely the kind of player I’d project to hold value on both sides of the ball into his 30s.

Ted: What type of prospect is the pitcher from Korea who the Red Sox just signed?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen anything about them signing a Korean pitcher, sorry.

Snowy: What type of deal do you think Bumgarner would get on the open market? Local consensus seems to be ownership is opening the checkbook and re-signing him no matter what
Keith Law: If they want to do that, great, but they should let the market set his price. I wonder if demand will be tepid given how he looked this year.

Randy: What are your thoughts on K Bryant’s grievance? Of course Cubs manipulated time like every other team, but in 2015, both Mike Olt and Tommy LaStella got hurt and went on DL paving way for KB. Do you really think there is any way he is FA after 2020?
Keith Law: My assumption is he’ll get a financial settlement, not free agency. Yes, they manipulated service time, obviously. Can Boras prove this was the sole reason they didn’t promote him for Opening Day, enough to get a ruling that sets him free? That I doubt.

Pat D: If you go to Wikipedia’s page on the 2020 HOF balloting, for the Modern Baseball Committee, in addition to the 8 men not elected by that committee last time, they list 42 other players, umpires, managers and executives as possible candidates, most all of whom it seems you could at least have a discussion on whether they’re deserving. So it’ll be kinda sad when precious few ever get elected, right?
Keith Law: Those committees have really become an embarrassment to the Hall. I’ve had plenty to say about bad BBWAA selections, but whoa boy, we are way better than those guys.

Benji: If the Tigers were to seriously shop Matt Boyd this winter, do you think they’d be able to land a bat in the middle range of your top 100? Do you think they ought to shop him now regardless?
Keith Law: Yes and yes.

Ray: Isn’t it interesting how so many “patriotic” conservative pundits have never said a word about human rights abuses in China, until they saw an opportunity to yell at Lebron James for not saying enough about human rights abuses in China?
Keith Law: I posted a link to a piece from the Guardian this past Saturday that said exactly that.

Gloria: Can someone like Ray be fixed by another organization in the way you said the Astros fixed Cole or is it harder for hitters?
Keith Law: It’s never easy, but he’s had so many swing issues since entering pro ball, and yet has a good underlying sense of the strike zone, that I think there’s something there for the right development group. Would love to see what the Dodgers could do for him, to pick one example. Rays too.

TomBruno23: Finished The Mushroom Hunters yesterday, now all I want to do is try every mushroom out there. Checked out The Queen from my library today. Keep those book recs coming.
Keith Law: I have been on a similar quest for unusual mushrooms lately, but haven’t found any markets that sell them near me. If anyone has a rec for places in Philly or its environs, let me know. DiBruno’s let me down, unfortunately.

Jon G: How much scrutiny does a team that hires Gabe Kapler as a manager or front office executive deserve given how he handled allegations of abuse when with the Dodgers?
Keith Law: The public story on that does not match what I have been able to learn from talking to many people involved at the time (not including Kapler).

Todd: Florial, Garcia and Gil enough for Lindor?
Keith Law: No. The Yanks have done quite a job selling the public on Florial, but I don’t think the industry buys it.

addoeh: Regarding eliminating minor league teams, for the cities losing clubs in the east and mid-west, aren’t most of them fairly close, an hour drive or so, from another minor or even major league club? If the fans want to see professional baseball, they can.
Keith Law: And if an area has enough of a population to support another team, one will move there. Nobody in this system has any interest in keeping teams away from fans. Team owners at all levels want profits, which depend on fan bases. All of the markets I’ve heard might lose their teams are either very small or lack even remotely adequate facilities.

JR: Of the five managers hired so far (with three openings to go), all have been white guys. You think any minorities will get one of the final three positions? Any minority candidates you think that are deserving of a manager position?
Keith Law: I’m not optimistic.

Brad: What is Victor Robles ceiling? Is he a Jackie Bradley Jr.?
Keith Law: Totally different player.

Scott: Do you think Strasburg should opt out?
Keith Law: Yes, and I think he will.

Tom: Do you believe the ball has been de-juiced for the playoffs? Do you think it’s a sign of what’s ahead?
Keith Law: The baseball is clearly different. Not sure I believe it was deliberate, which is the popular accusation.

Joe: Joe Espada has twice been passed by guys who have zero experience (Boone and Ross). Is there something wrong with him as a potential hire?
Keith Law: I know nothing about Espada to answer that question, but passing over an experienced minority twice is a bad look for MLB.

Aaron Houston, Tx: What can we expect from Bobby Dalbec? Can he be a Devers type profile?
Keith Law: Totally different players.
Keith Law: Devers turns 23 today. Dalbec is already 24 and hasn’t reached the majors yet.

Salty: I vote independently and lean conservative. I don’t understand the love affair with the wealth tax proposed by the democratic candidates. It seems great in theory, but won’t the richest of the rich just use their high-priced accountants to avoid paying additional taxes like the plague? No one ever questions the candidates on that scenario? Am I completely wrong on the subject? It seems like there’s no chance the intended (hoped) revenue would ever come close to being realized.
Keith Law: Wealth is pretty hard to hide, harder than income is. I think the argument should be whether taxing the wealthiest Americans has any deleterious effects on our economy. I don’t think it does, but I don’t know the answer and I see very little discussion of it.

Pat D: Do you have an opinion about some films getting very little to no theatrical release and essentially premiering on streaming services? I’ve counted about 30 films between now and the end of the year that are set to be released that I’d like to see, so I’m not going to complain that I can stay home to watch a few of them.
Keith Law: I prefer it too since it’s 35 minutes for me to get to the Ritz art theaters in Philly.

Mike: Keith, where do you stand on the pace of play issue? It seems it takes so long between pitches now. 4 hour 9 inning games is ridiculous.
Keith Law: It’s not pace of play. It’s pace of game. There are too many commercials and too many breaks.

Rob k: NYC media is reporting there’s a potential BOMBSHELL candidate for the Mets job. Is it you?
Keith Law: It’s not, although with Tingler getting the San Diego job, there’s hope for us 5’6″ baseball dorks now.

Jason: Do you have a solution to the service-time manipulation for free agency? Regardless of where lines are drawn, teams will try to stay on the “good” side. Would age or time since signing be a better way to handle it?
Keith Law: I proposed one modest rule change back in March 2015.

Todd: How will teams get to Coors Field next season with the wall surrounding Colorado?
Keith Law: They’ll have to get really high.

Kris: Does the Girardi hire have any significance on the ability for the Phillies to get to playoffs, let alone win a title? Hard for any manager to succeed with a flawed, talet-poor roster and a franchise that’s unable to draft or develop talent. Not saying Girardi is a bad choice, but I think Kapler took the fall for a decade plus of organizational ineptitude (which doesn’t seem like it’s going to end anytime soon unless MacPhail is fired)
Keith Law: They need to go get another starter, and once again rebuild the bullpen. I do think Howard helps them in 2020, but he’s not the entire solution.

Jake: The category is: Guys who throw really hard but don’t get strikeouts because they work down in the zone and then they go to Houston. What’s the next name in this sequence: Morton, Cole…?
Keith Law: I would love to see Jon Gray in Houston.

RJ : What type of contract do you see Zach Wheeler commanding this offseason? I feel like teams might see him as a good player with great potential to take a step forward if he has an opportunity to play with better defense behind him. His advanced metrics seem to be great.
Keith Law: Buster swears Wheeler is getting 4+ years … good for him given how much time he missed with injuries. I do think he’s the third best starter on the market.

Chris: cast iron or carbon steel fry pan?
Keith Law: I own one of each.

Bruce: How well does managing in the minors translate to managing in the majors? With the handling of the players and in-game managment being so different I would think ML bench coach experience would be more valuable.
Keith Law: Is in-game management that different?

B Mand: I wanted to ask a follow-up to a question you answered last week about the Red Sox looking to see what the trade market is for Mookie. What kind of return would the Sox need to get in order to make this a worthwhile move?
Keith Law: At least two projected starters, either young MLBers or top prospects. Not just any ones, but good ones.

Eric: Went to Disney World with my family last week. Saw a guy in a red MAGA hat. It was really unsettling.
Keith Law: Well, he gave a lot of his money to one of the most LGBTQ+ friendly companies in the world to own the libs.

Larry Legend: I understand it’s not as simplistic as this but the old school scouty team beating the cold calculating really smart team makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.
Keith Law: Well, the Nats aren’t really “old school scouty.” They talk analytics as much as most clubs do.

Brian Godish: I’m asking this knowing the answer is “money”, but why don’t MLB teams invest some money in making their minor league facilities/travel a little bit more adequate? Teams are investing in their draft picks to produce, it would seem a decent nights sleep should be helpful for said draft picks/international signing. It seems crazy how the minors work from a financial perspective.
Keith Law: They don’t own the teams. There’s no reason for them to invest in facilities they won’t own, and that could benefit another parent org when the affiliation agreement is up.

John: Should the Twins give Odorizzi a QO?
Keith Law: Yes.

Chris B: Do you think the Indians move Lindor this offseason? If they have no plans of resigning him then this would be the perfect time to maximize the return.
Keith Law: They absolutely should. I don’t get the sense they will.

Oscar: Any cookbook recommendations for a complete novice? I’m talking super simple.
Keith Law: Joy of Cooking was the first real cookbook I ever used, and I think it’s perfect for a newbie.

Chris: If writing about baseball and board games isn’t an option, but you could write full time about either music or food, which would you choose?
Keith Law: Food. I find writing about music harder than any other things I write about; it’s the most subjective topic I hit on, and translating things I hear into words without lapsing into discussions of Phrygian modes or counterpoints is quite difficult. (And who the hell wants to read that kind of writing?)

Ricky: I’ve seen a lot of Blue Jays fans patting themselves and the organization on the back for getting rid of Osuna but…if they wanted to do the “right” thing, shouldn’t they have just cut him rather than exchange his value or something else (even if it’s at a diminished cost)? I’m not sure how much “credit” they (or any team that trades someone accused of DV for something of value) should get.
Keith Law: I have no issue with them handling it as they did. I’m actually unsure if they could just release the player under the DV policy.

Pat: By taxing “wealth”, what do do you do? These people don’t have those $$ lying around in cash, it’s in some non-liquid asset, like stock or real estate, etc. Make the wealthy sell assets to pay the wealth tax? Does that affect the value of the assets? I’m not saying high income shouldn’t pay more taxes, but, the logistics of taxing “wealth” seem fuzzy to me.
Keith Law: You open a separate argument, which is that our capital gains tax is WAY too low. We tax regular income more heavily than we tax capital gains, but capital gains tend to accrue to higher income earners and to the wealthy, not to the majority of American households.

Geralt of Rivia: Gut feeling – even with the talk of trimming the payroll, luxury tax, etc., do the Red Sox come to terms with Betts? Trade him in the offseason? Ride out 2020 with the hopes of being in contention?
Keith Law: Depends on who’s GM and what ownership wants to do, but I don’t see a good path to contention for them in 2020 with their current pitching staff.

Stu: Is toxic maleness endemic to baseball, and other male sports, or can it be fixed?
Keith Law: Toxic masculinity is endemic to any patriarchal society. It’s not just sports; they are the visible tip of a very large iceberg.

Scott: Hi Keith. Looking forward to reading book #2. What are your thoughts on Barber to the Phillies?
Keith Law: Nice guy. Don’t know much about his own philosophy, but he comes from an org that integrates traditional scouting and analytical tools about as well as any team does.

Ben: Any Seattle eats recommendations? I am headed there for work and know nothing about the food scene.
Keith Law: I haven’t been since 2001 (and it kills me).

Pat D: I find the combination of Buck and Smoltz to be pretty unbearable to listen. Do you feel that way or am I just convinced that they both hate the Yankees and make no attempt to hide that?
Keith Law: I have watched all of their games without the sound. Smoltz’s attitude on modern players and especially on analytics does MLB no favors at all. Actually, I did hear a bit of game one, and I think he referred to Scherzer “going to the computer” in Max’s brain to figure out how to get some hitter out. I mean, John, that’s what analytics departments do. So it’s okay if a player uses his fallible memory, but not okay if we use the ACTUAL FUCKING DATA?

Craig: Why aren’t more major league teams simply buying affiliates when they come up for sale? The easy way to guarantee a good location/good facilities is to own the team yourself.
Keith Law: Then you have to run the teams.

Geralt of Rivia: Are fantasy and sci-fi genres that you are less interested in? (movies/tv/books) I think I just see you talk about them less, no judgment just curious.
Keith Law: Not true at all. I’ve read every Hugo winner but four (Cyteen, the two Mars books, and this year’s winner).

Allen: Wealth is actually much easier hide then income, primarily because there is much more ambiguity in terms of what someone’s actual wealth is. Several European countries have eliminated their wealth tax because the costs of collecting it weren’t worth the revenue gained. https://www.accountingtoday.com/articles/democrats-love-a-wealth-tax-b…
Keith Law: Bookmarking this to read later, thank you.

Chris: If invited, would you ever sit for an interview on Hot Ones? And how far up the Scoville Scale could you go?
Keith Law: I would, but not very far.

Vincent Adultman: Do you think Didi would accept a QO?
Keith Law: No. He’s a top ten FA this winter.

Gloria: I’m sure some of your readers/trolls are upset by the MAGA hat comment, but I hope they realize that for me and many others it’s like seeing a KKK hood, swastika, etc.
Keith Law: If you choose to wear that hat, you are doing so with the full understanding that many people will see it and find it offensive – and that, Mr. Luhnow, is “intent.”

Sean: I believe you really liked Zadie Smith’s White Teeth. Do you plan on checking out her new short story collection Grand Union?
Keith Law: Eventually yes. Read On Beauty and Swing Time, both fine, neither measured up to White Teeth.

Buscon Bob: How awful is the Cubs pitching development part of their farm system? Baltimore bad?
Keith Law: They haven’t drafted much pitching either – their strategy was always to draft bats and trade for or sign pitchers. Hard to kill their player development for failing to develop prospects they never had.

John: Did you read beyond the Three-Body Problem?
Keith Law: I didn’t; it was fine, but felt no need to move on from there. The whole unfolding-the-proton gambit was right up against the edge of the envelope for me … I was like, okay, I think I’m good here.

Dave: re Taubman – is it normal for front office types to be in the locker room during celebrations, etc.? Was this always the case?
Keith Law: Yes, it’s normal, and I have no objection to him or any other FO personnel being there.

Pat: Agree on capital gains, it should be higher taxed. Never understood why the tax rate is tied to how long you owned the asset.How about a sloped capital gains tax % based on amount gained, similar to income tax? Maybe the top tier is 50% for any gain over $5M or something?
Keith Law: Sure, at least that’s moving in the right direction – and while it will somewhat disincentivize capital investment, I don’t think that will stop anyone from trying to found the next Amazon or Facebook either. Set it at a rate where investors will still think they can get rich, even though they may give nearly half of it to the government in taxes.

Pat: Odds that Taubman was drunk in the clubhouse? That’s my hunch. Not that that’s an excuse, but it led him to say the quiet part of what surely was an internal talking point about this reporter continuously pointing out that Osuna is a scumbag out loud
Keith Law: If he was, well, in vino veritas.

Moe Mentum: Who was more musically innovative, David Bowie or David Byrne? How about most *influential*?
Keith Law: Don’t know their oeuvres enough to answer the first one but Bowie was certainly more influential.

Patrick: Who do you believe is the top prep righty in the 2020 class? Abel? Kelley?
Keith Law: Probably Kelley right now, with Abel 2. Definitely the top two guys.

Bruce: Thoughts on The Mets interviewing Eduardo Perez?
Keith Law: Very happy for him.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks to all of you, especially the substantial portion of you named “Pat,” for reading and for all of your questions. Keep an eye out for my Paste list of the top board games of the 2010s, and for a formal announcement about my second book, The Inside Game, in the next few days. Enjoy your weekends!

For ESPN+ subscribers, I had a long piece covering all the players I saw in the Arizona Fall League plus some other notes from instructs and games I saw in September.

Over at Ars Technica, I ranked all 18 Ticket to Ride maps available on tabletop. I also reviewed the new strategy game Tapestry, from the designer of Scythe and Charterstone, over at Paste.

Keith Law: Say goodbye to conventional ways. It’s Klawchat.

Trevor: Cole to the Angels sounds like a broken record. Last I checked there’s another team in LA, that wins, with more payroll flexibility
Keith Law: That doesn’t change the fact that Cole is an ideal fit for the Angels. Perhaps the Angels are not an ideal fit for him, or would choose not to outbid other suitors, but he is exactly what they need (actually, they need two of him).

Mike: Hi Keith, what’s your take on the Sox trading Mookie?
Keith Law: They should explore the market for him.

addoeh: Other than the upcoming Italy and Japan maps, what other countries/locations would like to see released for Ticket To Ride? Canada, Australia/New Zealand, Russia, South America?
Keith Law: It’s funny, I’m reading Paul Theroux’s The Great Railway Bazaar and have been thinking about how much train travel itself has changed, and how the Ticket to Ride games (which I love) really have nothing to do with the experience of travelers. Seems like that could be a new avenue for expansions. Anyway, South America seems like the least covered region for the maps so far – perhaps an Old Patagonian Express map is in order.

Trevor: Better California legislation: NCAA Fair Pay Act or prep schooling starting no earlier than 8-8:30am?
Keith Law: Why not both? High schools should all start later, as teenagers’ circadian rhythms run later than those of younger children or adults.

Bruce: Will Dustin May be in the Dodgers rotation next season?
Keith Law: At some point, yes.

Lyle: Could Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez both be on the opening day 2021 roster?
Keith Law: Possible but unlikely. Kelenic is further along.

Bruce: Will Yordan Alvarez continue to be a middle of the order bat next year or do you see him regressing next year?
Keith Law: I think there’s some regression coming, but he’ll still be an above-average hitter.

Mike: Has what Royce Lewis done in the AFL given you more optimism that the swing adjustments are progressing and the talent is still intact? Kiley at Fangraphs said in his chat yesterday he’s still bullish.
Keith Law: What swing adjustments? He looked exactly the same – huge leg kick, big hitch – and did not hit at all during the regular season. Nothing is wrong with him physically, but I don’t think there’s a big leaguer who hits for average with a noisy approach like Lewis’s.

The Bilmo: Why not play the better defender, Dom Smith, at first, and see if Alonso can play left?
Keith Law: Alonso can’t play left.

Brian: Could you provide an assessment of the Toronto front office? Has Shapiro/Atkins really done anything above average in the past 4 years? Bo/Pearson appear to be great draft hits…Lots of what appear to be bad decisions. Thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: The ‘model’ didn’t want Bichette; the scouts had to fight to get him. The model wanted JB Woodman, whom the Jays took a few picks later and who is now completely out of baseball. Pearson was a great pick, for sure, and the early (brief) returns on Groshans are also strong. But overall I don’t think this front office has built up their farm system nearly as well as other teams have in the same time frame, and they haven’t maximized returns well enough in trades.

Greg P: Keith – what’s your opinion on the baseball being used for the playoffs?
Keith Law: The evidence says the baseball is different from the one used in the regular season. Ignore the vaporing coming from the Commissioner’s Office and go with the data.

Matt: Tim Kurkjian mentioned that he liked the Maddon hire because the Angels “went too far” into the analytics, and that Maddon can bring them back the other way. Do you agree with that assessment? Is that something that’s really even possible?
Keith Law: I did not hear Tim say that, and it doesn’t really sound like him, but I’ll respond to the general argument and say it’s balderdash. Scioscia was hostile to analytics; Ausmus simply didn’t implement them well at all. Maddon is more open to integrating analytics than either of those two guys, and that’s good. It won’t matter without more pitching, though.

Ken: With the Harold Baines induction in the HOF and Nick Markakis at 2355 hits at age 35, is there better than a non-zero chance that he is able to hang around long to collect his 3,000 hits. As a die hard O’s fan my wife would be ecstatic (I am a Yankee fan and once lovingly called my wife’s team a cute little franchise 🙂 ) but good god Markakis in the hall? I might never hear the end of it!!!!!!!!!!
Keith Law: I think if Markakis gets to 3000 hits, he’ll be the first non-PED-assumed player to reach that mark and not get in through the BBWAA vote.

Dan: Hi Keith – thanks for your insights! Was wondering if you thought 2020 would be a realistic expectation for the White Sox to challenge for a division title with what they currently have? I know free agent additions could change this outlook. I also know they have a lot of question marks, especially on players coming back from injuries, but I’m not sure the Twins’ run this year is sustainable.
Keith Law: Not as currently constituted, but they should be very aggressive this winter. I do think the Twins’ run is sustainable, but the White Sox can match them with improvements from internal options plus two pieces added this winter.

Bob: No question. Just wanted to say I had a chance to check out the Crack Shack on a recent work trip to SD and it exceeded my expectations. Thanks for the recommendation!
Keith Law: Can’t wait to head there for the winter meetings. I’ve grown to like those meetings less and less over the years, especially with the last two years such duds for actual baseball news, but San Diego is the best city for them.

Brian: Are you bothered at all by the coexistence of wild cards and an unbalanced schedule? Teams are competing for playoff spots while playing vastly different schedules. For example, the Mets played 102 games against teams over .500, while the Brewers played 88, the Cubs 84 and the Diamondbacks 75. I’ve never seen anyone talk about this, but it seems like a pretty fundamentally unfair structural problem. (And it’s not necessarily something that will vary from year to year; the Mets always play 4 to 6 games against the powerful Yankees, for example.)
Keith Law: Playing more teams in your division – which is probably the right schedule when division titles matter so much – will always lead to an unbalanced schedule, and there’s no real fix for that.

Dan: The Cubs have 4 “top 100” prospects. Change my mind.
Keith Law: They do not. And since I make the list, I think that settles it.

Sarah: I saw your write up from the AFL. Do you buy Julio Rodriguez as a potential super star?
Keith Law: Offensively, yes.

edward: hey keith: longtime reader (advocated for you to read anything by gaddis) and i am headed to wilmington tomorrow for an opening at the delaware art museum. i have the afternoon free – any suggestions as to how best to spend my time? thank you!
Keith Law: Uh … maybe go walk around Longwood Gardens?

Jon: Is Gabe Kapler the next manager to ride the AJ Hinch “2nd time around he’s a genius” train?
Keith Law: I think he’ll do very well at his next stop. I don’t think he was in any way the problem in Philadelphia, regardless of what the fans or some of the local media tell you. Their bullpen imploded early, and their rotation crumbled late. None of that is on him.

Jones: What are your thoughts around the managing skills of Dave Martinez. Obviously managerial skills are often soft and hard to quantify but in my mind he definitely deserves credit for keeping the team together, setting the right tone and atmosphere and enabling them to get the most out of their talent and win games. I don’t think he does a good job with the bullpen, but looking back on Trevor Rosenthal, Tony Sipp and the rest of that cast of characters, who could do a good job?
Keith Law: I think he’s been harmless, but this team is doing what they’re doing because they are ridiculously talented. It’s a very deep, strong lineup, and their top three starters rival any top three in the game.

Brandon: Do you eat concessions at the games you attend? If so, what would be your ideal menu throughout the game?
Keith Law: Almost never.

Sedona: Hey Keith! Do you project any player from the 2018 J2 class to become All-Stars?
Keith Law: I think Cartaya is on that path right now. Others have a chance but are still pretty low-probability, like Luciano or Orelvis.

Luke: Is Wingspan the best new board game of 2019? (This could also be asked “What new board game should I get the family for the holidays?”)
Keith Law: Yes, I don’t think I’m spoiling anything by saying so. It’s the only perfect score I’ve given a game since I started reviewing over at Paste.

Ron: Is this off season a good time for the Twins to trade Rosario? Would he bring any decent pitching? Your thoughts. Thanks as always for the chats!
Keith Law: A low-OBP corner outfielder who’s not a great defender and has two years remaining probably doesn’t bring back much pitching, especially if his power spike this year was more the baseball than anything new with him.

David: Any thoughts on Ron Washington vs. Jayce Tingler as the Padres’ new manager?
Keith Law: I’m more familiar with Tingler, and didn’t love what I saw from Washington the first time around in Texas, so I would lean towards the former … but recognize that Wash might be better the second time around.

BD: Besides Luis Garcia, do you have any notes on Sterling Sharp, Jacob Condra, Jakson Reetz, or Cole Freeman?
Keith Law: All my AFL notes were in that column. I didn’t see Sharp pitch at all.

Moe Mentum: What were Gabe Kapler’s primary weaknesses as Phillies manager, and who should they hire as a replacement to address these weaknesses?
Keith Law: His handling of the media was probably his downfall, which is dumb but that’s the world in which we live. They should hire the best available replacement, not someone who is the anti-Kapler.

Beni-getbettah?: The atmospheric pressure isn’t the only thing dropping in Boston, as the next bomb might be Mookie’s departure. The silver lining, if that forecast is true, may be a solid pair of young players remaining in Bogaerts and Devers. Outside of that duo, there appears to be a drought of controlled and productive young talent. I wonder what your barometer reads on Benintendi’s season? It wasn’t a disaster, but the lack of pop in a season of juiced balls raises concerns that this may be more than a blip on the radar.
Keith Law: I’m truly surprised his power has never come on, but at this point you’re probably asking for a swing overhaul to try to find it.

Chris: Thoughts on Dave Roberts’ handling of the bullpen in Game 5 of the NLDS?
Keith Law: I thought using Kershaw for Eaton was fine, leaving him in past an inning break to face one of the best RHB in the game was questionable, and not going to Kolarek for Soto was even more questionable. Roberts managed as if Kershaw were still the 2016 model, but we have a full season of pitch data that says he’s not. Using Joe Kelly in the 10th was a white flag.

Chris: Any buy-low free agents you like this offseason?
Keith Law: I’ll do that ranking right after the WS ends.

Michael: Is there a tangible reason why Cole is so much better now than two years ago?
Keith Law: Yes, with the trade to Houston he changed his approach and went with more four-seamers up.

Adam: If you’re into high-ceiling but risky prospects, are Brailyn Marquez and Brennan Davis — and not Nico Hoerner — the best Cubs’ prospects?
Keith Law: Hoerner does seem lower upside, and he didn’t perform well after an aggressive assignment to AA this year. If you think Marquez is a likely starter, he’s their best guy. If not, it’s probably Davis.

Jesse B : Can Christian Javier be a successful back end starter if he tightens up the command or is he a reliever?
Keith Law: More likely reliever for me.

JR: While I love seeing top talent perform in the postseason, I’m also a sucker for a great story. Seeing a guy like Anibal Sanchez throwing quality postseason innings or Zimmerman having some huge postseason moments and his Nats finally having postseason success after all his years with the team – fyeahbaseball
Keith Law: Agreed – the Nats are a series of great stories, from a fan base that hadn’t seen their team win a playoff series to a city that hasn’t hosted a WS game in 86 years to all the players on that roster who’d never seen an NLCS let alone a World Series.

Michael: What should the penalty be for the Angels if it is proven that team employees knew of Skaggs drug abuse and if a team employee is found to have been procuring the drugs for him?
Keith Law: That’s a legal question, no? Seems like one for the lawyers.

BD: With a salary cap (excuse me luxory tax), shouldnt MLBPA push for a salary floor as well?
Keith Law: Yes, probably. I don’t think it solves much at the macro level but it would funnel more money to players.

Jerry: I’m an Astros fan. I’m in awe of what Cole is doing. That being said, a SP only plays in 20% of the games. Is it really worth it to blow up the salary structure (whether you agree with it or not) to pay Cole what he is going to demand and potentially lose future FAs like Correa, Springer, Brantley whose every day production would be, presumably, harder to replace?
Keith Law: A SP only plays in 20% of their team’s games, but has undue influence on those 30-odd games, so one great SP is as valuable as a great position player. I’d be more concerned with the question of how durable any great starter is versus any great position player.

Pat: Billy Squier? Nice!
Keith Law: I do it for fun.

Jason : Everyone in Philly is blasting the Phillies right now about how bad their farm system is and they “only” have 3 top 100 prospects. What is you opinion of the Phillies system?
Keith Law: They’ve flubbed a lot of first-round picks, especially top-ten picks, and it’s hurting them. I also think several very good prospects – their Luis Garcia and Daniel Brito among them – have failed to develop so far, and that’s got to lead Klentak et al to examine their development processes.

Matt: Is Juan Soto now the most valuable (hypothetical) trade asset in baseball?
Keith Law: Is he more valuable than Acuna, who is signed to a team-friendly deal? I don’t think so.

Jack: Have you heard about any issues with Kelenic’s makeup? I have heard from someone that has played with him at multiple levels that at least part of the reason why New York moved on from him was that he has character issues.
Keith Law: That is some serious ass-covering bullshit right there.

Larry Legend: With every pitcher seemingly throwing 95+ what separator are teams deeming most important? Secondaries, command, arm action or effort level?
Keith Law: All of those are factors. The first two are variables around effectiveness; the latter two speak more to potential durability or role.

Bruce: Are you still high on Dom Smith? Will the Mets deal him this winter to a team where he can play 1B?
Keith Law: Yes, and I think so.

Jeff: Any truth to the notion that the long layoff the Nats have right now will have them out of rhythm?
Keith Law: Nope.

Jack: How have teams not pushed back against a 5 game Division Series? Baseball is too random over a 5 game stretch and really good teams get eliminated at this level of the playoffs.
Keith Law: Players are not asking for more games. Also, plenty of randomness in 7-game series too.

James: What were your impressions of the Robot Umpire in the AFL? Did you see Jacob Heyward get tossed after that questionable call?
Keith Law: I was gone before that, but I thought it worked fine, and saw just one pitch called by the automated strike zone that I thought looked wrong (which isn’t saying it was wrong, just that I thought it was).

JL: Pardon my ignorance, but can you explain generally how age impacts a player’s performance, particularly at the plate? Reduced bat speed? Quicker fatigue? Lower ability to recover from fatigue? I’m curious why players start to decline at the plate due to age. Thanks!
Keith Law: I think reduced bat speed is the #1 issue.

Joe: I’m a suffering Reds fan. I see no path to contending for them anytime soon, but I’m sick of losing and feel like their best play is to see what they can get for Castillo, Gray, and even Suarez. They’ll never unload Votto though, so a total Houston-style fire sale is impossible. Never mind, I’m just gonna go bang my head against the wall for a bit.
Keith Law: They shouldn’t have traded three of their top six prospects (Trammell, Downs, Josiah Gray) for short-term help, but they did, and I’m not really sure how they move forward from this netherworld in which they’ve placed themselves.

Justi: Do you see Dylan Carlson having a chance to be on the Opening Day roster next season, especially if Ozuna walks?
Keith Law: Not likely.

Anthony: Jazz Chisholm: Did he right the ship in the second half?
Keith Law: Sure sounds like it.

Jerry: Barring injury, Whitley is the number ? starter in the opening day rotation, working out of the BP, or refining his stuff/delivery at AAA?
Keith Law: In AAA. Just didn’t pitch all that much this year, didn’t look right until the AFL.

Christopher: Is Jordan Humphreys on the Mets any good? As in what is you projection? Pounding the strike zone is nice. Future starter? Releiver? Thanks
Keith Law: Yes, he’s good, wrote him up in the AFL post.

Robert: Did you have a chance to see Micker Adolfo in Arizona? Do you think he can still unlock his massive tools if he stays healthy?
Keith Law: Yep, can still hit, with power, going to swing and miss but will walk some and hit enough HR to profile as a regular.

Bill: What do you think about the Astros starting Greinke and Verlander over the next two days? It almost forces Houston to win both games, otherwise you’re looking at Cole on three days’ rest and the rookie or a bullpen brigade in a winner-take-all game 7.
Keith Law: Maybe I’m misunderstanding, but why wouldn’t Cole pitch on full rest in game 7?

Kevin: who would you want for the next 10 years? Devers or Torres?
Keith Law: Love both. Probably Torres for position/defense.

Colin: The Padres are screwed with Myers & Hosmer, is the best course of action to run a platoon with them and see what you can salvage? i get the feeling Hosmer would ruin the clubhouse if he were to be platooned.
Keith Law: I think Myers is a release candidate at this point. I doubt it happens, but he’s not even worth the roster spot.

Tom: Trying to lose 15 pounds by year end. Do you recommend any specific low-calorie meals/snacks that’ll tide a normal sized person over for several hours?
Keith Law: Not a nutritionist, but I know from my own perspective, as someone who doesn’t need to lose weight but doesn’t want to gain and also has some minor blood-sugar issues, I do much better when I eat more fiber from whole grains, fruits, vegetables, and nuts/seeds. I also eat yogurt with homemade granola almost every day for lunch.

jk: Keith, who is best positioned to trade for Lindor this offseason and what kind of package would you expect Cleveland to obtain?
Keith Law: Supposedly they’re not going to shop him. I don’t buy that, but that’s the rumor.

Jerry: The Astros don’t seem to be missing any of the bushel full of prospects they gave up for either Verlander or Cole. Why do I get the feeling the Greinke trade may come back to bite them at some point?
Keith Law: They gave up the least for Cole and I think the most for Greinke, but in no deal did they give up more than they should have, IMO.

Ben: Any rooting interest in the World Series? I like when cities that haven’t won in a while get to celebrate.
Keith Law: Same. I don’t care that much either way, but new WS winners are definitely fun.

JR: On twitter (I know, I know) seeing lots of “how does Bryce Harper feel right now?” Honestly, I bet he feels great having $330MM guaranteed and is probably happy and rooting for his former teammates.
Keith Law: Yep. And the Phillies love him, so what’s the problem?

pakkap: pollack, gonsolin, and keibert for mookie make sense? rids LA of an extraneous contract, deltas what they’re going to have to pay mookie to extend him, and gives boston a bottom staff SP/potential closer and a starting catcher. figure betts + cole and LA is set for the offseason.
Keith Law: it makes sense for the Dodgers. It’s a terrible deal for the Sox.

Drew: In his latest column, Boz posits that the Nats are so good because they were willing to buck sabermetric orthodoxy and found market inefficiencies by fielding older players like Sanchez, Cabrera, Zimmerman, Kendrick, and Dozier and focusing on hitting to all parts of the field instead of being so homer reliant. Do you think he’s on to something?
Keith Law: No, since those players were really just a small part of their success, if they were part of it at all. And Kendrick’s season was more of a stone fluke than anything else – he’s 36 and just posted the lowest K% and best average of his career.

Tyler: Does Daulton Varsho have a chance to stick at Catcher?
Keith Law: Probably not.

Dr. Bob: Did you see that Nancy Pelosi took the picture that Trump tweeted of her standing and pointing at him (which he thought would embarrass her) and make it her Twitter cover photo? Serious trolling there.
Keith Law: Yep. Looks like she’s lecturing him in the photo.

Sedona: is KeByran Hayes the future 3B for PIT? Will he develop enough power to start?
Keith Law: Yes, yes.

Bruce: Are you buying Tyler Glasnow long term?
Keith Law: Yes, perhaps not “best pitcher per IP in the majors” good, but good.

Stu: Is there any reason to believe that Buck Showalter can be successful?
Keith Law: With the right personnel, sure. I don’t think Philly is it, though.

Bob: Padres go out and sign Strasburg, and deal for Bryant or Starling Marte, do they make a wild card run?
Keith Law: If they did those things, yes.

Henry: Would Farhan Zaidi not taken the S.F. job if he didn’t have full control? Still surprised he didn’t sell before trade deadline.
Keith Law: Maybe he didn’t like the offers he got?

Ryan: Dillon Tate still a prospect of any kind?
Keith Law: Not really.

Jack: After a disastrous playoffs and nearly 2 decade series winless streak, this offseason is a very important one for AA and the Braves. What should their top priorities be this winter and do you see any of their current prospects playing a large role on the 2020 team? Thanks!
Keith Law: Why is this offseason so important? Because they lost a five-game series they were a few outs away from winning at one point? I don’t agree at all. I think Pache plays quite a bit in the majors in 2020 and at least one of their remaining top arms – Wright more likely than Anderson – does the same.

Eor: Are there any Blue Jays pitching prospects that excite you other than Manaok and Pearson?
Keith Law: Anthony Kay. Patrick Murphy, if healthy.

Michael: Nutritionists generally say that sugar is poison for our bodies, especially in excess. I have a sweet tooth like you. Have you cut back on your sugar consumption (guessing with the granola it’s a no) or do you have any replacements you like?
Keith Law: I don’t think any nutritionists say anything like that. My granola has some sugar but less than just about any commercial brand.

Chris: What are some things that you have recently cooked/baked for the first time that you would do again/never do again? Anything come to mind that you have been meaning to try but just haven’t gotten around to it yet?
Keith Law: Made a genoise layer cake for my girlfriend’s birthday, first time I’d tried that in at least 15 years, and I’m amped to do another one but with a different recipe to try to get a little more body to the cake.
Keith Law: I blame the Great British Baking Show, by the way.

Pat: Fan wanting to watch some actual MLB players here: Is it wrong to want the O’s to sign some competent MLB pitchers to make the 2020 season more watchable? They don’t need to have a $60M payroll, rebuild or not. They still want fans to pay to watch a big league product.
Keith Law: Not wrong at all – and I think having some competent innings guys can help you develop the young pitchers who matter because you’re not overtaxing the rest of the staff.

Trey Harris: Did you see me play at all in the AFL and do you believe that I can hit enough to be serviceable in the majors eventually (even as a bench bat)
Keith Law: There’s a chance, but offspeed recognition remains an open question.

Tracy: Keith, I am looking into reading some science fiction classics, particularly Dune and some of Asimovs earlier works such as Foundation. Have you read any of these? Recommendations?
Keith Law: The first Dune book is great; don’t bother with sequels. Loved the Foundation series, particularly the original trilogy. Other classics I recommend: Stranger in a Strange Land, The Dispossessed, the Left Hand of Darkness, Hyperion, Flow My Tears the Policeman Said or Time Out of Joint.

addoeh: Isn’t every Thomas Boswell article about how someone is going against sabermetric orthodoxy? It’s like he’s constantly mad at math.
Keith Law: Yep, it’s been a crusade of sorts.
Keith Law: It’s a shame as Boswell was once among the most progressive sportswriters in the country.

Sage: Is it still true a bad manager can lose a team many games but a good manager can only win a few games over a season?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d say so.

Steve: Coming in to the 2016 draft was it perceived as weak? Where was Moniak on your rankings and who did you have at the top?
Keith Law: Very weak and it’s been weaker in hindsight. I had Moniak somewhere in the 5-8 range and Corey Ray at the top. Senzel and Puk have been the two best players from the class. The guy I was WAY too high on was Blake Rutherford, whose power with metal bats has been totally absent in pro ball.

Courtney: Jeter Downs potential star? How do dodgers sort out Lux Downs and Seager?
Keith Law: At least a potential above-average regular. I think you let it sort itself out, see how Seager looks his second year back from surgery, and if he has to move you put Lux at short.

Brent: Are you a fan of the Great British Baking Show? I really like how the show displays good competition where everyone wants everyone to do their best. Less about the contestants and more about the competition.
Keith Law: I am now, and I completely agree.

Michael: Nutritionists do say that unfortunately (link removed)
Keith Law: Come on – you have to be more discerning with your sources than that. Some random television station from a developing country isn’t a reliable source on a subject like this.

Bill: Did you ever read A Confederacy of Dunces? I found to be a wildly entertaining book, and am stunned it took a decade after his death to get published.
Keith Law: Yep, a top 20 all-time novel for me.

Sedona: Do you still see Brenden McKay having #2 upside potential? Or will his low velocity FB push him down a nothch?
Keith Law: Yes, and he doesn’t have a low velocity FB.

Todd: Other than Garcia, Yankees have any upside starter prospects?
Keith Law: Schmidt maybe. Yoendrys Gomez and Roansy Contreras could be too.

Matt: Since the Mets (stupidly) went all in for 2019 with the Cano/Diaz deal and later the Stroman deal, shouldn’t they just double down on 2020 and make a strong offer for Betts? Sure, it will deplete their system even further but they’re pretty effed beyond the short term anyway and maybe they raise a flag before the dark days come back.
Keith Law: Sure. I do think at this point the best option is to just empty the cupboard, as much as I hate that they got to this point in the first place.

Walton: What’s your opinion of Josh Lowe as a prospect? Do you think that he’s made key adjustments recently that have improved his approach or is his recent success too SSS to take into consideration?
Keith Law: Read the AFL post to which I linked at the top of this page. I think he’s the first guy I discussed.

Benji: Klaw, what’s the name of the coffee press or thingy you use again? I’m trying to wean off kurigs
Keith Law: A Hario V25 pour-over cone. Uses paper filters.

Matt: The concept of the Phillies flubbing on their first round picks has come up a bunch in chats this year, and while I won’t deny that none of them look like the type of star you hope to get from a top 10 pick, all of the players (with the exception of Randolph) were taken at least close to where you had them ranked. Is this just a development issue? Or do you consider being unable to develop players, even when drafting properly, part of screwing up the draft?
Keith Law: Moniak wasn’t taken close to where I ranked him either. I do think Bohm is good and will justify being taken 3rd overall. But they have definitely failed to develop some key guys from the draft and international.

PD: Blake Rutherford was a very old HS prospect, right? Will this apply to Witt as well, where he was a lot older and looked much better due to his physical differences?
Keith Law: Rutherford turned 19 a month before the draft; Witt did so a week after his draft. I think it’s always a variable to consider, but not definitive. JT Realmuto was 19 a few months before the draft. I’m very curious to see how Brett Baty, who was about 19.5 at the draft, develops – and how fast the Mets move him.

Barry: I eat yogurt with fruit almost everyday for breakfast. If you’re having yogurt for lunch what do you eat for breakfast? Thanks!
Keith Law: At home, usually a cereal that has at least 3 g of fiber per bowl.

HeHateMeTeam: Are the Cubs one of the teams most affected negatively by the juiced ball? Seems like they already had power and none of those guys took it to the next level. Also didn’t have any pop up power hitters.
Keith Law: Their power has backed up when most teams saw their power increase. Poor timing, to say the least.

Bruce: What are your thoughts on AJ Puk and Jesus Luzardo? Will both be top end starters?
Keith Law: Puk looks like a #2, Luzardo has that upside but still has yet to have a healthy season in pro ball.

RE: Sci-fi books: Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
Keith Law: Book is good, not one of my favorite PKDs.

addoeh: Super Colon Blow?
Keith Law: I’m convinced!

Nick: Is it just me or does the term “analytics” mean next to nothing now? I see it used a lot in the local media (I’m in Philly) as almost a pejorative term, and the people using it don’t seem to have any clue what they’re actually mad about.
Keith Law: I think that’s absolutely right. If you hear someone using it as a derogatory term, they don’t know what it means. The best concise explanation I could give is that it means using all available information to make better decisions on and off the field. Who in their right mind doesn’t want their favorite team to do that?
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks as always for reading and for all of your questions. I’ll be making a formal announcement of my next book in the next week or so, and will also have some fun board gaming pieces for Paste and Ars Technica later this month too. Enjoy your weekends!