Starting today at 2 pm ET. Subscribers to the Athletic can read my latest minor-league scouting post, on Kyle Harrison, Jay Groome, and others; and my second mock for the upcoming MLB draft.

Keith Law: It’s the sound of a brand new day. Klawchat.

Aaron C.: Off the top of your head, is this year’s midseason top 50 going to feature the most new names due to graduations in the history of Klaw? Celebrators of chaos unite! *cackles*
Keith Law: Yes, certainly seems that way. I’ll do this a few days after the draft, as I did last year, so I can include some of those players as well. Looking back at my preseason top 100 I think 8 of the top 9 will be off the midseason list (where I just go by whether they’re in the majors, not rookie status as I do in the offseason). So the top of the midseason list will be especially fun and different.

Jason S: Who’s the more promising breakout player Ceddanne Rafaela or Ezequiel Tovar?
Keith Law: Tovar. Better chance for + defensive value. Rafaela is a lot smaller, too.

Erica: Couldn’t someone just put Ben Joyce in their big league bullpen right now?
Keith Law: They could, but I don’t think he’d do very well. He walked 10% of hitters in college this year. That’s going to be much higher even in AA, let alone the majors.

Mike W: Gavin Stone not slowing down in AA, has he passed up Bobby Miller?
Keith Law: Stone’s a good prospect but he’s not close to Miller. That’s stat-line scouting. Miller was in my preseason top 50 because he has a very good chance to be not just a starter, but a good one.

Bret S: I appreciate all of the book reviews you do. Maybe a dumb question but how do you finish books you don’t like? I have so many I want to read I bail out the minute I realize I don’t like the one I’m reading.
Keith Law: Sometimes I don’t, especially if the book is long. I’m not pushing myself to finish books I read for pleasure. I do read a few books a year for completist purposes, like the Pulitzer and Hugo winners, but otherwise I don’t see the reason to force myself to read something I don’t love. I gave up on How late it was, how late, even though I’m sort of working my way through the Booker winners, because it was so hard to read and unpleasant too. (A book can be hard to read, but enjoyable, like some Faulkner.)

Thomas T: Hi Keith;
Thoughts on either Wingspan expansions? I’ve followed many of your recommendations over the years (and have been glad I did). I love Wingspan for its short gameplay, so I’m wondering if the added time isn’t really going to bring enough value to take it from a <90 min game to closer to 2 hours.
Keith Law: I’ve actually never played the expansions – they just announced a third one this week, Asia – mostly because I don’t play many expansions to any games. I own so many games, and play so many new games each year for reviews, that I play very few games enough to want to alter the experience with an expansion. It has to really add something good to game play, like Carcassonne’s Traders & Builders does, or add better components, like Ticket to Ride’s 1910 expansion. But a lot of expansions just add complexity or extend game time, and that appeals to me less. I do have one expansion I want to play & review, for Paris: La Cité de la Lumière, but haven’t gotten to it yet.

Mike: Last week, You and dvr discussed the rebuilding teams but left out one clear one – the Nats. Is it just because they are so early on it it/whats your take on their current state?
Keith Law: I don’t think we tried to cover every single rebuilding team – that would have taken more than the time we have for the show. They are early in their rebuild, but I also think when they get closer the (current) owners are likely to spend big in free agency to supplement, which isn’t true for all rebuilding clubs.

David: Hi Keith, Does the pitching Elijah Green faced at IMG compare at all to what Cam Collier saw in junior college? You had previously mentioned Green faced perhaps the toughest high school pitching in the country this year (please correct me if I’m wrong). Thanks!
Keith Law: I think that the second part about Green is fair, but no high school pitching is going to be close to what Collier saw facing Florida jucos.

Mike: Welcome back! Any reason the Yankees don’t drop Joey Gallo now, even if they have to eat his salary? And, do you know why he has been so historically, abysmally bad with the Yankees?
Keith Law: Seems very overreactive. Also, there’s no question another team would take him, even if it’s just to take the rest of the contract.

Casey: Masyn Winn seemed like a high risk/reward draft pick in 2020 that has done well this season…do you think he could be an above average regular at SS?
Keith Law: Yes. Huge credit to the Cards for that draft – Walker and Winn were both very high risk/high reward guys, for different reasons, and so far both have performed at or near the top end of expectations. It’s like betting eight the hard way, twice, and hitting it both times. (Not really because that is a stupid bet in craps, but I hope you get the general idea.)

PghJake: Will Ben Cherrington have the draft pool to pull off this year what he did last year?
Keith Law: They only have one extra pick this year, and they pick 4th rather than 1st. That’s a lot less money in their pool.

Casey: As a Cardinals fan I keep reading about the success of Gordon Graceffo this season. What’s the word on him within the industry?
Keith Law: I had a note on him in late March in a scouting post and what I wrote then still stands. He’s a legitimate mid-rotation starter prospect.

Erik: Can Christopher Morel be a legitimate starting outfielder? Or do you get Junior Lake vibes?
Keith Law: There’s a whole lot in between those two outcomes. I think he’s in the middle of that. Probably not a regular.

Casey: How has Tommy Edman turned into this? I remember you saying you thought wouldn’t be much more than a backup infielder but now he leads the league in WAR…what changed with him?
Keith Law: Multiple things have changed – he’s a pretty different player now, and while I would bet the under on him repeating this in the second half, he’s become such a valuable defensive player that his floor is way higher. I don’t think he was ever this good a defender in the minors. He also makes more hard contact than I expected, or than he did as a prospect. Right now he’d probably be the first guy on my “guys I was wrong about” list.

Alex: When do you see Jud Fabian getting selected in the draft?  In other words, did he make the right choice by not signing with the Red Sox last year?
Keith Law: I don’t think he goes any higher and probably ends up with less money than what he turned down. He’s the same guy he was a year ago, except now he’s almost 22. There’s just way too much swing and miss here, with no improvement over two seasons in his main areas of weakness. You can read more about him on my Big Board.

Ryan: Do you think the Dbacks will promote Carroll this year? The lineup could really use a boost
Keith Law: That’s the wrong reason to promote your best prospect, though. You promote him because he’s ready, and needs the bigger challenge.

Billy: The teams who passed on Lawlar because he was “old” for the class are probably kicking themselves right now.
Keith Law: Did anyone really do that? I’m sure it was a small factor in some models, but I don’t think any team flat-out passed on him for that reason. He was old for the class, though – no scare quotes needed. 19 is old for a HS senior.

Aaron C.: Restaurant you’re most looking forward to hitting up during All Star weekend in LA?
Keith Law: I’m afraid I won’t have much time for food tourism on that trip. Might be more breakfast & lunch and then I improvise for dinners with the Futures Game on Saturday evening (followed by a lot of writing) and then the draft on Sunday night (followed by more writing and sleep).

Aaron C.: May I selfishly request any modicum of positive prospect-related news you might have from the A’s farm system for those of us who are still inexplicably A’s fans?
Keith Law: Yes. Zack Gelof is both justifying my choice to rank him in the “just missed” column and making me wish I’d gone even further. (He’s out now with a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, though.)

Jesse B: How concerned are you about Noelvi Marte’s season?
Keith Law: I’m not.

Finney: Mark Appel finally made it to the majors, and I couldn’t be happier for him. What is the main reason he never became the top-of-the-rotation arm that he once seemed destined to be? Was the quality of his stuff eroded by injuries and/or misuse? Did he simply fail to develop past what he was in college? Or did everyone overestimate how good he was in the first place?
Keith Law: Everyone has an explanation on that one, and I think it was a combination of many things. One is that his fastball played well below its velocity in pro ball. I would bet that in the trackman era, he doesn’t go 1-1, because advanced data is not as kind to his stuff as the radar gun was.
Keith Law: I do also think pitching in Lancaster, which was a ridiculous hitters’ park that I often compared to playing baseball on the moon, really hurt him as a pitcher, because of the way it amplified any mistakes and imposed a greater cost on his stuff than any other park might have. I’m so glad that park is gone.

Charlotte: If you had to take one going forward out of Adley, Witt and JRodriguez…who ya got? Still small enough sample that you would default to preseason rankings?
Keith Law: I might go J-Rod given youth and now that he’s demonstrated 80 speed across the board. DVR and I discussed on him on last week’s podcast and why I should/would have ranked him higher if I’d seen that before.

Anthony: Is the hype on Jackson Chourio justified?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s really good.

David: Keith, if you had to rank in likelihood for Cubs at 7, between Lee, Parada, Termarr, and Collier…. What order do you have?
Keith Law: I’ll have another mock in less than two weeks.

Phil: Thoughts on Bo Naylor’s season and is this the type of offense you thought you’d see from him when he first came out?
Keith Law: Yes but bear in mind that he was repeating AA. Still optimistic. Also I’d like to point out that my habit of calling breakouts a year early may now extend to Josh Naylor, who is doing this year what I said he’d do last year.

JR: Is all this college realignment good, bad or neutral for college baseball? I wish college football and mens basketball (the $ makers) would form their own league and leave the rest of the non-money making sports in their geographical footprints
Keith Law: I think it’s bad for college baseball because of the huge travel that might be imposed on players if we lose all of the geographical ties on the conferences. One point college coaches like to make to recruits is that going pro means lots of times sitting on buses for road trips. I’d rather do that than fly cross-country and try to play while jet-lagged, and also not getting paid.

Jack: Any chance Colson Montgomery has played his way into the top 100?
Keith Law: I just saw him two nights ago, blog post to come later this week, but the short answer is no.

Mike: Chances that the “franchises heretofore known as the Oakland A’s and Tampa Bay Rays” actually relocate? And, where?
Keith Law: In what timeframe?

Rick: Has your long-term outlook of Detmers changed after his initial MLB time? On a side note, thanks for all your non baseball posts and links.
Keith Law: I’m a little less optimistic but maybe like 10% so.

Craig: You recently teased a possible visit to London (and/or elsewhere in the UK).  Are you able to expand on that possibility?
Keith Law: The store event I was working on fell through, so while I’ll be there in August, I don’t currently have a place for some sort of meet-up. I’m still open to it and will see what else I can do, though. More than enough of you said you’d be game for it.

Kahlil (Jupiter, FL): What happens to my hit tool? Why am I striking out so much? Can I develop a two strike approach?
Keith Law: One of the bigger and more shocking disappointments of the season.

Freddie Freeman: How tired are you of hearing about how my agent screwed me and how much I miss Atlanta?
Keith Law: I really do not have any desire to get involved in that storyline at all.

Eric: Do you garden? If so, how much? What do you grow? Is it therapeutic for you?
Keith Law: I do! We grew radishes this year, which were done by early June; and arugula and English peas, which are finishing up now. We have tomatoes, cucumbers, beets, bell peppers, and possibly one watermelon plant all still going, plus some herbs in the garden and in pots. This was our first year doing it in the new yard, so some of this was an experiment to see what would work in that space, but everything has grown beyond our hopes. I don’t know if I’d say it’s therapeutic but I love the reward of eating what we grow. I’m less interested in things we can’t eat.
Keith Law: I always want to have thyme and rosemary plants going. I use those herbs enough and fresh is so much better than dried that they’re essential IMO. And we have several basil plants which I need to be more diligent about harvesting and pruning (you want to remove the buds before flowers appear, as that will make the leaves more bitter).

JK: Did you watch House of Gucci just to make fun of Leto? Worth it, but it wasn’t even the best Scott-Driver movie last year.
Keith Law: No, we actually wanted to watch it. I was surprised by how boring it was. I knew the accents would be an issue, and I am not a Leto fan at all, but the movie just sucked. All that money and time and effort for such a big nothing? How do you turn a story with multiple scandals into such a dull script?

Jay: How much has Gunnar Henderson improved his stock this year? His season, at his age, has been incredible.
Keith Law: I’ll put it this way … he’ll figure quite prominently in the midseason rankings update.

Justin: Does trading Bryan Reynolds make sense for the Pirates right now? Do you think they’re at all close to winning if they keep him or do they stand to gain more by obtaining the haul they would get in a trade?
Keith Law: I think they have to trade him now – both from a rebuilding perspective and that of his likely value going forward.

Kevin: Hi Keith, love your whole deal.  The White Sox are in shambles at the major league and their minors offer little immediate help.  Should they, in the up coming draft, select a college player (who they can rush to the majors to avoid signing a FA) or draft a HS player (they trade in the offseason to avoid  spending in FA)
Keith Law: Best player available. I don’t like the “rush a guy to the majors” idea – I think that has failed more often than people realize when they make such a pick.
Keith Law: And if the general sense that the gap between the minors and the majors right now is bigger than ever is true, doesn’t that make that idea – that we can take, say, a great college reliever and race him to the majors – even less plausible?

Jon: Still playing guitar?
Keith Law: Yep, as much as I can, at least. Finding time is always tricky but I do sneak some in every day.

Caleb: How excited should O’s fans be about Coby Mayo hitting AA already? Also, Is Gunnar Henderson a GUY?
Keith Law: I didn’t understand that promotion, although the others all made sense. He wasn’t actually playing that well until the last 7-8 games, and then went on a little tear, but it obscured some of the approach issues I’d seen earlier in the year. Not saying he can’t figure it out, but I don’t think the move up was justified by the production or how he looked doing it.

Anonymous: You’ve commented previously on how you really do not like Twenty-One Pilots. Can you explain further what you don’t like about their music?
Keith Law: Literally everything.

Appa Yip Yip: You are standing in front of a treasure chest. Do you immediately open it for the sweet, sweet loot, or do you hit it with your sword on the off chance it’s a mimic that will eat you?
Keith Law: Can I cast detect traps?

Russ: Is your reading done on planes, or at home on the porch?  At night, or whenever you get a free period (what is the minimum time you need to set aside to set down and read?)
Keith Law: On planes, in the evening before bed, waiting in line or other places, and yes sometimes on the porch. I’ll read 2 pages if I have the time. If I’m at a game and am not sitting with anyone I know, which is more common with so many teams cutting pro scouts the last few years, I’ll read between innings and for pitching changes. It might be 2 pages each time but I might get through 20-30 pages over the course of a game.

Aaron: Has Michael Harris II’s hot, albeit unsustainable, start changed his floor/ceiling at all for you?
Keith Law: No.

Chris: Keith, you scouted Ceddanne Rafaela against one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and Marcelo Mayer the day after he came back from a wrist injury, and was immediately shut down with the same injury. Why do you hate my team?
Keith Law: It is rather unfortunate. Fortunately I know I’ll see those guys again by virtue of geography.

Pat: Baltimore is one of the most reliant teams on its draft models, right? I am surprised Collier isn’t linked to them more. Seems like he would do very, very well for model-heavy teams given his age
Keith Law: Same. But we also don’t really know what their plan is.

Scott (NYC): I recall you were high on Dom Smith. Any thoughts on his struggles? Does he just need consistent playing time? Stop putting him in the outfield? It seems pretty certain Mets are going to trade him and he will revert to 2020 form
Keith Law: Agreed. Needs regular playing time at a position he can play, and probably to get the hell away from a front office that has clearly had no use for him for over a year now.

Randall: What are your thoughts on the timing of the draft this year?
Keith Law: I hate it. The draft should be this week.

Sam: Where are teams with Kumar Rocker?  I assume the medical issue still exists.  Do you think some team is willing to take him in the first round?
Keith Law: We don’t know what his medicals say and as far as I know no team has seen anything other than the Mets.

Dallas: Bryce Harper currently is the vote leader in NL DH for the ASG. 2nd place is William Contreras. Harper will win but won’t play. Will Contreras be the replacement starter or do you think they treat it like past games and choose the best hitter to be the replacement starting DH?
Keith Law: I actually didn’t know Harper was leading that position in voting. I just pay no attention to AS voting.

Dallas: Vaun Brown just got promoted to Hi-A after crushing the Lo-A Cal League and crushing his college league when a 5th year senior. He’s old. Need to wait and see until 2A, correct?
Keith Law: Yes. He’s 24. Same for Niko Kavadas in the Sox system – just had an incredible June, but he’s 23.5 and most of that came in low A.

Dave: Is Joey Bart going to be anything more than an all glove no hit player?  The strikeout rate is unbelievably high, probably even higher than what most expected.
Keith Law: now I just hear Jimmy McMillan saying “the strikeout rate is too damn high!”

Brittney: Wainwright HOF?
Keith Law: I don’t see it.

Greg: Any quick thoughts on your trip to see Oscar Colas and Colson Montgomery?  No way Colas sticks as a CF right?
Keith Law: Blog post later this week. Also saw Griff McGarry last night, and will go back again for some of those other Jersey Shore pitchers (Abel, Painter, Brown).

Eric: Re: Gardening, we just closed on a 5-acre property, so excited to really be able to build a big garden. Love eating what we grow, and agree, we are not about growing things we can’t use.
Keith Law: I don’t think we could ever be those people who grow a huge part of the produce they eat – we have the space, but not the time – but now that we’ve shown a lot of plants will grow very well in that space, we’re going to be more aggressive about it next year.

Portofbrandon: I really enjoy the Stick to Baseball posts, and it would be a shame if you couldn’t keep doing them
Keith Law: They’re still going. Already started this week’s.

addoeh: How was teaching your oldest how to drive?
Keith Law: She learned most of it in school – I can’t take any credit here. She’ll just practice with me. Driver’s ed was so much better anyway; as any parents of teens know, they learn and accept criticism much better from anyone who isn’t a parent.

Chris: Could Jacob berry fall to the 20s or is he a lock before then?
Keith Law: I don’t think he gets near that far. Heard Rockies as a floor.

America: remember when we a functioning democracy? me neither …
Keith Law: We were more of one not that long ago.

Salty: Keith – have not seen you mention Black Map in your new music write-ups – didn’t check out the new album yet, or not feeling it?
Keith Law: I think I included one of their singles on a playlist in maybe March? New playlist in the next few days too.

Pat: Is there too much good TV right now? I find I have to keep a list of what I want to watch because at every given time there are 5-8 shows that are really good. Invariably, i catch half of them, forgot about/delay the other half & maybe never catch up.
Keith Law: We feel like we’re hopelessly behind. We did finally start Abbott Elementary last night and watched 5 episodes (of 13) … it’s fantastic. It’s really just Parks & Recreation set in a Philly elementary school with a majority POC cast, but I’m on this show’s wavelength and already love the character development. Also the principal had one line that made me laugh so hard we had to pause the show.

Tom: Noone from AA Harrisburg stuck out to you on your recent trip to see them vs altoona?
Keith Law: Correct.

Mahatma Kane Jeeves: Late to the chat, so apologies if you’ve answered this. But do you like how Tink Hence is being managed so far in 2022? I know he’s a short & skinny guy (and the small sample results have certainly been fun) but it’s late June and he’s throwing 3 innings over and over….
Keith Law: Didn’t he miss almost all of last year too?

Jim: How much of the Phillies’ failure to produce good young talent is bad timing (having 1-1 in a historically bad draft), bad development (screwing up Kingery) or bad luck (Haseley). Still hopeful for Bohm and Stott and the Jersey Shore arms.
Keith Law: I think there was a combination of bad choices in the draft + poor development under the last regime. It’s going to take a little time to turn that player development ship around, but I believe Mattingly/Fuld will get them there.

Dan: Like, you seem to legitimately believe that there is a female soul wandering through the ether that actually, accidentally found a host in a male human forming in utero. That is the basis of all “trans rights” ideas. Buying into this just obliterates my perception of you as a man of science.
Keith Law: This is just wrong. There’s quite a bit of research on the biological basis for gender identity; you are either unfamiliar with it, or choosing to ignore it. It took me a few seconds to find this research paper on the subject: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7139786/
Keith Law: And here’s another: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21334362/

There’s plenty of publicly available research on this. Mischaracterizing it as woo, as you have, is quite a tell.

Milana and Stevie: Best baseball movie, to you? We just saw Bull Durham again, and Tim Robbins is a real hoot, but that CAN’T be the best baseball movie ever…can it? (We like Long Gone, with Bill Peterson & Ginny Madsen the best.)
Keith Law: Sugar. And so few people have seen it

Drew (mpls): Any new 2 person games you’ve tried lately? Love Lost Cities and Jaipur, both from your recommendations. Thanks!
Keith Law: No but I’ve got two in the queue.

Jay: Funny or Sad?  Jays meet the Red Sox in the post season and the deciding game comes down to the Red Sox Hauck-less bullpen blowing a late lead.
Keith Law: Am I wrong to think that there has been way too little criticism of Houck for this? Not only is he wrong on the science, but the choice is selfish for him as a teammate and as a member of his community. There’s no defense.

Jibraun: Re best baseball movie, Sugar is fantastic, but may I suggest Everybody Wants Some by Richard Linklater?
Keith Law: I love that movie. Excellent choice.
Keith Law: Time to go record the next podcast with DVR, so I have to wrap this up. Thanks so much for all of your questions. Stay tuned for more minor league scouting blogs and two more mock drafts over the next 2 1/2 weeks as we head to draft day, plus a Futures Game recap the night of the game. Stay safe!

Starting at 3 pm ET. My latest column for subscribers to The Athletic looks at the first few weeks for players who debuted in MLB this month. For Paste, I reviewed Skull Canyon: Ski Fest, a new Ticket to Ride-like game with an extra phase that lets you pick up more gear for the next day on the slopes.

Keith Law: In the final seconds, who’s gonna save you? Klawchat.

Matt: Why doesn’t MLB just stick Angel Hernandez at 3B rather than let him call strikes in a nationally televised game?
Keith Law: Don’t think they can dictate that? The umpires rotate through their positions, and I imagine there’d be a huge fight – maybe another lawsuit – if they denied him the right to work the plate in a nationally televised game.

Aaron C.: Cristian Pache has two walks in his first 63 PAs. A’s seem content to bat him 8th/9th. Even in a lost/rebuilding year, when does it become untenable?
Keith Law: He should be in triple A, and I say that as someone who is a longtime Pache believer.

JR: If the choices for the Mets next Monday are to cut Cano or Jankowski, or demote Smith, cutting Cano is the smartest option right?
Keith Law: Yes. If they don’t want to use Smith, and clearly someone in that FO does not like him, demoting him would hurt any trade value he has less – and I know other teams that like him.

Matt: When you worked in Toronto, did you ever get the sense that players “know” when a teammate sucks? Like say a #4 hitter is up. Does he feel pressure because the #5 hitter ( I’m talking to you Joey Gallo) couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn from 2 feet away? Or is the mindset more along the lines of hitting is hard, he’s a professional, he’ll get the job done.
Keith Law: I don’t remember that per se, but I do remember we could tell when players clearly didn’t like someone as a teammate – you could see the body language differ in the clubhouse, or who was talking to whom.

Aaron C.: Understand if you’d rather not name names, but have you ever scouted a kid with significant “make up” issues who ultimately turned his sh t around and thrived in the bigs?
Keith Law: Yes. But in some cases I can think of, I have wondered if the makeup concerns were overblown. Javy Báez comes to mind – his makeup was fine, he was just a ‘showy’ Latino player and (white) people didn’t respond well to it. They were wrong.
Keith Law: I don’t know about someone with, say, REAL makeup issues, like a drug problem, getting to the show and succeeding. The ones who come to mind never panned out.

JR: If you were in a front office for a team that planned on contending next year, after the draft would you try and sign Conforto to a 2 year/20-22MM contract? Basically guarantee him the QO $ he turned down last December + a little extra for this year to get him in your system? Or would it not be worth trying?
Keith Law: Yes. Not sure Boras would go for it, but yes.

zuke: Ugh….Bench clearing brawls. When will baseball start suspending guys for leaving the dugout and especially the bullpen to go push each other in a scrum?

10….over/under on how man bench clearing incidents the mets are involved in this year. Not even may and already over the old-school baseball macho BS.
Keith Law: I haven’t watched any of this stuff, sorry. I would much rather watch actual baseball. If I’m at a game and a brawl breaks out, I take out whatever book I’m reading. Never liked it in hockey either.

Aaron C.: Any new weeknight meals/recipes in the rotation? My ungrateful ass family has apparently grown weary of the usual blood, sweat and tears I serve them during the work week.
Keith Law: Have been doing one of pasta alla vodka or all’amatriciana more or less every week lately. Neither is very hard, and you can just use good-quality bacon if you’d rather not hunt down pancetta (which is unsmoked, and definitely has a more porky flavor) or guanciale (my favorite, but it’s expensive and harder to find). Otherwise it’s all stuff you probably have in your house. Trader Joes now sells bucatini for $1.70 a pound, and it’s great for pasta all’amatriciana.

Aidan: Is Ezequiel Tovar a top 50 prospect? What he is doing in the Eastern League at age 20 is impressive.
Keith Law: He’s a prospect. It’s only two weeks, though.

Snit: Thoughts on Kyle Wright so far this season?
Keith Law: Cautious optimism. Was so high on him out of college, but his fastball didn’t play the same in pro ball and he was heavy on the slider, which I thought would be the out pitch. His curveball is easy plus now and he’s locating his fastball as well as ever – he might have 70 command, although SSS applies.

ProjectHanyo: What do you think of the NIL and the potential changes in scholarship caps and third paid assistant? Thinking the threat of college becomes a bigger risk which could lead to a few things, like higher minor league salary. But my fear is that MLB will take the NCAA like the NBA and NFL have and make it its de facto minor league system and get rid of the minors.
Keith Law: I think Rob Manfred would be very happy to farm out player development to the colleges, which would be worse for baseball and for players. I don’t think the NIL rules affect baseball. More scholarships would.

Terrified Citizen: Are we going to full-blown war with Russia if this course of events continues?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but, hey, I’m no Eric Feigl-Ding.

Buster: Hi Keith, do you think Maddux Bruns is the real deal based off his early showings this year and what he showed in spring training? Also, how much longer can the cardinals keep Michael McGreevy in High A as he’s just mowing em down and quite frankly, it’s unfair for those hitters lol.
Keith Law: Don’t think McGreevy’s developing there either. Command starters from college should do this in A-ball. I’m in on Bruns.

Jeff: Hi Keith, Twins fan here. Is this Joe Ryan for real?
Keith Law: No – see my comment under today’s piece. It’s not sustainable.

Noah: Are any of the royals “starters” salvageable. Talking Kowar, Singer, and Bubic. Brady just got sent down
Keith Law: Bubic is the one I think just needs to pitch. Kowar needs a breaking ball. Singer needs to go to the bullpen.

Seth: Your thoughts on Bryan Ramos? Is he now the Sox best prospect?
Keith Law: He was #11 on my White Sox top 20 before the season. I think he’s in their top 3 now.
Keith Law: Colás is off to a great start in A+, too.

ProjectHanyo: What do you think is causing all the higher than normal TJ/elbow injuries among the draft class? Last year would have made more sense given how colleges and high schools were restricted due to COVID with training.
Keith Law: Hypothesis: Guys barely pitched in 2020. Then they all pitched in 2021 like they hadn’t missed a year. Now the piper comes calling.

Eric: Why do I have to watch Cavan Biggio when Samad Taylor exists?
Keith Law: Preaching to the choir on that. The Jays fans mad online about my opinions on Biggio have been quiet.

Johnny Mo: If you’re the Cardinals can you rationalize moving Edman to SS and bringing up Gorman?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine that … I feel like it’s a big defensive hit to take. I also was looking at Edman’s batted ball data the other day, and, jeez, I missed on that guy completely.

Michael: I made an insensitive comment to you on your CODA review and want to apologize for that
Keith Law: Oh, thank you, but that’s truly not necessary.

Book: Sorry if I missed it, but have you recently made any good reading recommendations fiction/non
Keith Law: I’ve been reading more the last few weeks with more travel. Jason Mott’s Hell of a Book was amazing. Black Swan Green was excellent too. Emily Fridlund’s History of Wolves was very good. Non-fiction … I interviewed Dr. Ellen Hendriksen (How to Be Yourself) and Kathryn Schulz (Lost & Found) for my podcast after reading and enjoying both of their books.
Keith Law: Currently reading Eating to Extinction by Dan Saladino, about rare foods we’re at risk of losing due to globalization, climate change, or other stupid human tricks.

BD DC: Luis Garcia is killing the ball at AAA.  Has the light gone on?
Keith Law: I don’t believe in any hitter who has that much big-league time going back down to beat up inferior AAA pitching until he does it again in the majors. Not saying he hasn’t changed, but any varsity player should be able to hit JV pitching.

Elon Musk: Gonna stick around, Keith? Free speech for everyone!
Keith Law: I’m not going anywhere. I did set up an account on counter.social, @keithlaw, for folks who fled there from Twitter, but I am not deactivating my Twitter account.

Joe: I assume Gore is getting some help from bad teams but he looks pretty damn good considering where he was a year ago?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time. I’m very pleased with where he is. I still see work to do.

Bob: You mentioned passivity in your report on Evan Carter. Have you found that to be somewhat innate and hard to change or the kind of thing a good development team should be able to help improve?
Keith Law: Depends on the person. No hard & fast rule there. Jeremy Hermida just watched this question go right by him.

Kevin: What’s up Klaw. Hope all is well. Long term for A’s…Murphy or Langeliers? Who would you prefer?
Keith Law: I would trade Murphy and promote Langeliers. Nothing against Murphy, but Langeliers provides a similar skill set, and Murphy should return a big haul. Of course, when you’re playing Christian Bethancourt at first base…

John Standing: Hey Keith, are you a believer in Taylor Ward’s start? Thanks
Keith Law: He has a .531 OBP. I am going to boldly predict that that will come down.

zuke: Does the international draft help players. They already gave away any real benefit when they capped it. But does the draft at least help with the “agent” issues?
Keith Law: If that’s coming to pass, I will write about it at length on the Athletic. I don’t think I could do it justice in a chat answer.

David: Does Jacob Berry have the type of elite bat where he could be a top 5-10 pick even if he ends up at 1B/DH?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. Maybe someone takes him there. He’s a DH.

addoeh: Any resto recs in Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads?  Couldn’t find any articles on The Dish.
Keith Law: I actually have not been down there since high school, other than a day trip to Norfolk to see Neil Ramirez about 15 years ago.

Adam: When Manny Machado says to the media that he’ll be “a very mad, mad, man” if Hosmer gets traded off the Padres, should that affect the FO’s actions at all?
Keith Law: No.

J: Another make up question-how does a parents make up issues (thinking of Jay Groome in the past, Justin Crawford this year with Carl’s record label fighting with an artist) affect the player’s standing
Keith Law: The Groome stuff was bullshit. Groome’s father ended up in jail for a whole host of crimes. Jay has had no makeup trouble I’ve heard of in pro ball – just trouble staying healthy.

Pepe: Thanks for your coverage of mental health topics over the years Keith. I suffered from social phobia my whole life but only later learned there is a strong comorbidity with ADHD, which i was recently diagnosed with. One aspect of ADHD is the ability to hyperfocus on things that a person is interested in or when a deadline is looming. This is sometimes framed as a superpower, but most acknowledge ADHD overall is burden to live with.

I saw a recent high draft pick mention he had ADHD on twitter and immediately wondered if teams factor conditions like this into evaluations? I feel like statistically an ADHD person may or may not be more likely to succeed in the bigs (not sure which). To me it seems like being able to focus in the moment or hyperfocus in preparation/training/theory would be a superpower, but also if baseball becomes unfun it would be much easier for these players to “check out”. Have you heard anything about this line of thinking when selecting amateurs?
Keith Law: Teams have different philosophies on such players – some view it as a negative, some don’t care, most I think would just want to know beforehand. A player with a real ADHD diagnosis can get an exemption to take medications, most of which are amphetamine derivatives, while playing, and those medications can confer real advantages to players – which is why some players try to use them without the exemptions.
Keith Law: I don’t know if I can answer any more concretely than that. How specific teams view these diagnoses I do not know.

J: With the NFL draft today, who is the biggest loss that you think baseball as a sport has lost to another sport
Keith Law: As a player? We’ve lost a few two-sport guys out of high school – Brandon McIlwain comes to mind – who could have been really good if they’d stuck with baseball, and then didn’t pan out in football either. (He’s with the Mets now and struggling.) Pat Mahomes was a prospect but everyone knew in HS he’d end up playing football, which I think was the right choice for him.
Keith Law: It’s often hard to say because even the best baseball prospects need a lot more time and reps before they get to the big leagues, and if they quit, it’s at age 17 or 18, before they’re finished products.

Adam: Have you noticed any specific changes that has allowed Nestor Cortes to become this effective? Granted between last year and this year we are still only looking at about a 1/2 year of innings, so it’s still small sample size territory? Is this likely just a great stretch, or do you see a potential mid-rotation guy going forward?
Keith Law: The cutter is the new thing, right? I don’t think he had that before he was waived and traded and sent to Scriberia or wherever. It might be a 70, though.
Keith Law: He might have the most interesting zero-to-hero story of anyone, though. The Yankees had him, lost him in the rule 5, got him back, got rid of him, got him back again, and now he’s (waves hands) this.
Keith Law: Lindsey Adler wrote about some of the Yankees’ pitch design stuff earlier this month, including the slider they call the “whirly” (there’s got to be a better way to say that).

addoeh: Can Keegan Thompson be a back of the rotation starter or is he more of a multi inning reliever?
Keith Law: 5th starter maybe?

Deke: Literally any reason to believe in Eric Hosmer being productive (not THIS productive, but productive)?
Keith Law: All available data says no.

Guest: Matt McLain- guy, Guy or GUY?
Keith Law: Guy. Maybe a 55 in the end.
Keith Law: He was on my top 100, and here in my Reds org report.

Tony: What is missing with Mitch Keller? Pretty much since he came up, his adjusted numbers make him seem like a solid pitcher, but his results are just so bad. Is he basically the anti-Matt Cain?
Keith Law: No changeup, for one thing. The FB is pretty true and I think hitters see it too well. LHB have given him trouble since AA, but now right-handers are too. I’d love to see him try a splitter.

SG: Do you think Elly De La Cruz will stay at SS or do you see a move to the outfield in the future?
Keith Law: He’s awfully big for SS. If he hits, we won’t really care where he plays.

Jon: What are your thoughts on Bauer’s leave being endlessly dragged out? I’m surprised the PA wouldn’t be urging for a quicker decision.
Keith Law: I do not understand it … it feels like both the union and league are kicking the can down Sinister Street (this is an obscure reference even for me).

Dr. Bob: RE: Today’s piece. If a young player is being overmatched, should the team send him down to the minors for a few weeks or let him try to figure it out in the majors? Is there a best development path?
Keith Law: I would not advocate for any of the players I mentioned today to be sent down. I don’t think it would benefit any of them.

Guest: Who would you draft first- Prelipp or Lesko?
Austin: Does Ivan Melendez (the Hispanic Titanic!) have a pro future or is hitting dingers every night in Austin his baseball peak?
Keith Law: Top 5 rounds.

Michael: We are seeing pitchers throw 104 now.  That was unthinkable 20 years ago. Do you think it can go much higher?
Keith Law: I don’t. There has to be a physical maximum, right? I recall an old study that put it around 105.

Appa Yip Yip: Any notes on Samad Taylor?
Keith Law: I was surprised they didn’t protect him. See my Blue Jays top 20 for more.

Mike: How does the last week or so change how we look at Andrew Painter? Does he start sliding up prospect lists?
Keith Law: It doesn’t. A week of performance shouldn’t change anything. And the #1 thing I would want to see from Painter this year is health.

Matt: Have you watched Winning Time? Gotta love the real life Lakers Barbara Streisanding the whole thing.
Keith Law: I haven’t. Never been much of a basketball fan.

Jonathan: Are you buying Tyler O’Niell going forward? Not necessarily as a consistent top 10 MVP candidate but as a legit above average player or is there still too much swing and miss?
Keith Law: He’s been horrible. He homered Opening Day and is slugging under .200 since then.
Keith Law: I’m just saying I don’t know what I would buy. I expected regression. This is more than that.

Pat D: Will starting pitchers ever pitch 7 innings again?  How many teams do you think will keep 14 pitchers during May with the new ruling?
Keith Law: I think the new normal is starters twice through the order. Expanding rosters might keep pitchers healthy but it will also ensure that we see more pitchers per game and no more 200 inning starters.

Cal: Hey Keith, I remember you being higher than most on David Calabrese in the 2020 Draft. Still very young, but any update on him?
Keith Law: Very young but the lost summer/fall really killed him. He needs to get stronger, and he needs to play. He’s in extended and I think he has a ways to go.

ProjectHanyo: Speaking of 2-way players, wonder how much Maurice Hampton regrets rejecting 1.8 million out of high school as he plays baseball only at Samford
Keith Law: I agree, but he did get a championship ring at LSU (football). That’s something. He’s actually hitting a little better lately at Samford and could go in the top 10 rounds

Walt: Following up on losing prospects to other sports, am I recalling correctly that you thought Jake Locker was potentially a high-level baseball player? Got a nice payday as a high draft pick, but never really panned out on the football field.
Keith Law: YES. That’s the name. Great memory.

UGW: Any chance Brady House stays at SS?
Keith Law: I would say zero.

Matt: Jan 6th Committee just said there will be 8 public hearings starting in June. Think it matters?
Keith Law: I think they are right to do it but I doubt it matters. A third of the country thinks those traitors were right.

Frank: What are your thoughts on using an opener?  Have you seen any data related to its effectiveness or lack thereof?  Lastly, is TB use of openers primarily to protect its young arms?
Keith Law: I understand the rationale. I find it annoying to my inner fan.

Rob: Acknowledging that it’s two weeks, are there any other prospects who look arrows up similar to Bryan Ramos?
Keith Law: Not for nothing, but he’s walked 2 times all year with 12 Ks. That’s at least worth considered as a counterbalance to the strong performance on BIP.

Andrew: What’s better for you- clicking to your articles through your Twitter account or just read from the Athletic app?
Keith Law: Doesn’t matter. I’m happy you’re reading. And so are my bosses.

Guest: What was the answer to my Prelipp/Lesko question- didn’t see the answer posted below the question
Keith Law: Prielipp will be able to throw before the draft, and that higher level of certainty helps him quite a bit. But we have basically no scouting looks on him since high school – four starts before the pandemic in 2020, seven innings total before he blew out last spring.

Pei: When someone asks a question such as “Is Joe Ryan for real” and you point out that his current start is obviously SSS and unsustainable, are you implying that you do not see nor have heard anything that suggests the player is tangibly different from how you evaluated him before the season? Because as a reader, when I see a question like that, I am interested in if there is any difference in the player at all, not if his SSS is real or not, which is an obvious answer
Keith Law: I see no difference in Joe Ryan 2022 versus Joe Ryan 2021. But, for better or worse, I take most questions literally. Is his performance this year sustainable? No, absolutely not. Is he a major-league starter? Hell yeah. I believed he was before 2022, too.

JR: I know you’re not a NBA guy, but can you recall the equivalent of Ben Simmons in the MLB? a seemingly healthy, all star caliber player, that can’t play likely due to mental health issues.
Keith Law: I can recall some minor leaguers, but not a major leaguer.

Marilyn: You as shocked as I am with what James Wood is doing?
Keith Law: Mostly. He mailed it in last spring, according to multiple scouts I know who saw him several times. Does he respond the same way when he struggles in pro ball?

Jay: Prediction time. Do you think the GOP flips one or both houses in midterms?
Keith Law: Yes

Ian: Obviously Daniel Espino is not going to have a K/9 approaching 20, but is he legitimately a #1 starter at his peak?
Keith Law: Yes.

TomBruno23: Wet Leg…9/7 at Delmar Hall, looking forward to that one.
Keith Law: The album disappointed me. I often like that droll sing-talky British style of vocals … but theirs annoys me more often than not.

Jim: Didn’t Greinke take time off because of mental health/social anxiety issues?
Keith Law: He’s going to the Hall of Fame. I was trying to think of a player whose career was derailed or substantially altered by mental illness.

Kevin: Would you consider yipps a mental health issue?
Keith Law: Depends very much on whom you ask.

Sam: Where does Kumar Rocker go in this draft?  Will he regret not taking the offer from the Mets, however low it may have seen?
Keith Law: My understanding is that the Mets did not make an offer. They did not have to do so because he declined to submit an MRI to MLB before the draft. Had he done that, they would have had to make a minimum offer to guarantee compensation in this draft if he didn’t sign. (which is a long way of saying the MRI program is unfair and anti-labor, but participating in it is better for the player than not.)

Guest: Is Dewon Brazelton Jr a prospect? Did you scout his father at all?
Keith Law: He was at NHSI. Looks a lot like his dad (who was before my time – saw him in the majors, not as a prospect). I don’t think Jr is a prospect, not now.

zuke: khalil greene comes to mind on players impacted my mental health.
Keith Law: Excellent one, yes. Clearly I should have you guys answer these questions.

Ed: Gordon Graceffo had the velo jump this spring. Short sample, but rolling in HighA.  Seems to be overqualified for that level.  Anything interesting there?
Keith Law: Yes, see my March scouting notebook that mentioned him.

Johhnycakes: James Triantos an MLB regular?
Keith Law: See the link in the last response.

Michael: College seasons are short and they use metal bats. So it’s SSS and has a huge variable. So how do you scout hitters there an feel that you are accurate?
Keith Law: You’re not scouting the stats, though. You use systems to handle statistical analysis. You scout the swing, the approach, the athleticism.
Keith Law: The metal bat is a problem, though.

Mike: Andrew Toles re. Mental health?
Keith Law: Schizophrenia, in fact. Talented, but not a very skilled prospect. The Dodgers continue to keep him under contract so he can have health insurance. That’s a kind thing that they’re doing and a sign that our country’s health care system is a fucking travesty.

Jim: Regarding mental health impacting a career, you could also make an argument for Jimmy Piersall, no?
Keith Law: Came to mind, but that is literally before my time, and I don’t know his story well at all.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Stay tuned for a draft ranking next week, going to 100 names, and then my first mock the week after that, probably going up on May 12th. I should have a draft notebook early in the week on some more players I’ve seen in person. Thank you all for reading, as always, and for your patience with the absence of these chats – Thursdays are often very busy for me and I’ve been traveling a bit more than usual. I’ll do more chats here and some Q&As on the Athletic too. Take care.

Subscribers to the Athletic can see my top 100 prospects ranking, ranking of all 30 farm systems, and top 20 prospects for every organization. I also have a new game review, the tableau-building game Subastral, over at Paste.

Keith Law: That’s right, here’s where the talkin’ ends. Klawchat.

TomBruno23: Moreno, Castellini, Kendrick, Illitch are quite a Mt. Rushmore
Keith Law: Yep. Kendrick and his wife are among the biggest donors to right-wing dark-money groups, along with Charles Koch and the Uihleins (boycott U-Line, folks). And we know where Moreno’s loyalties lie. It’s some of the strongest anti-labor voices in the country.

Dave F: Hi Keith. Can you explain again your resistance to a salary cap if MLB also had a salary floor? With the lucrative regional tv deals of bigger markets, it seems like they are able to buy out their mistakes and take on salary for a playoff push. I would think a salary floor would still get the Union what they want with higher wages and also level the playing field for teams, similar to the other major sports.
Keith Law: The cap does more to limit player incomes than the floor does to help it – and a floor doesn’t guarantee higher wages, either. Teams could easily reach the floor with one or two bloated deals for veterans. You want to raise wages? Make the minimum salary $1.5 million. Then the floor is automatically $39 million.

Dr. Bob: Greetings, Keith. Moneyball’s Michael Lewis tried to paint the analytics revolution as replacing traditional scouting. You have opposed that position and credited the work of scouts. So, here’s my question: Have the methods employed by scouts changed? If so, can you speak as to how?
Keith Law: Absolutely. Lewis was wrong – what analytics has done is changed the way teams evaluate players, including by empowering scouts to look at players in new ways while also helping streamline the process of figuring out who best to go see and when. Most scouts I know talk comfortably in the language of the analytics era, discussing spin rates and extension as much as they talk about feel and pitchability.

JT: I abandoned hockey once upon a time after it lost a season to a strike. I can’t even remember: 2003-4 or 2004-05. I only watched out of habit, an easy thing to fall into in Canada, esp. when you grew up with 3 channels and 2 were hockey some nights.

Does MLB not have any sense that it might lose similar casual fans?
Keith Law: No. I said on a radio hit in Jacksonville this morning (the Drill was the show) that MLB might be banking on the fact that live sports is one of the most coveted places for advertisers now, since people stream so much more content than they watch live. That could be driving the false confidence.

Ken (Cleveland): I know your more player than owner (understandably so for a multitude of reasons).  I’m curious, is there any specific position that you support the owners’ perspective of over the players?
Keith Law: In this current round, not that I’m aware of. They’re so focused on breaking the union that their policies seem aggressively geared to that end. Labor should earn its marginal revenue product. MLB doesn’t want to be subject to this general economic “law.”

Jim: Hey, Keith, hope you’re feeling better.  In the absence of anything constructive coming out of MLB, re you going to continue your “Keith answers x questions about Team Y’s farm system” interviews, or are they an ad hoc exercise?  Thanks as always.
Keith Law: I just did one for the Blue Jays today and will do one for the Angels in the next few days (Sam just sent the questions).

Kip: Thanks for all the great content over the last few weeks.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. Thank you all for reading and subscribing. Links to all the prospect content are up top.

Francisco: Hi Keith, Thanks for chatting. I would like to know your thoughts on Tommy White. Thanks !
Keith Law: Let’s see what happens in conference play. He wouldn’t be the first guy to go off against non-conference pitching and then come down to earth when the better pitching shows up.

JBisson: Hi, Keith. Thanks again for taking time out of your day to chat with us die-hards! I realize it might be difficult to narrow this down to one, but if you can, which player on your top 100 prospects lists do you believe has the widest range of potential outcomes?
Keith Law: I don’t think I could answer that off the cuff – I’d have to give it a lot of time and thought. Might be fodder for a future column or something.

Brutus Beefcake: Would you mind explaining why you didn’t vote for Billy Wagner for the HoF?  I don’t mean to suggest you needed to or should have–he seems very borderline–just that in your HoF column I didn’t see his name come up, and I was curious.
Keith Law: Not even close. He pitched less than anyone in the Hall of Fame – I don’t think there’s a HoF pitcher under 1000 innings, and he barely cracked 900.

Tony: I don’t know if you’ve gotten into the latest Alt-J album at all, but I found parts of it quite good while other parts sounded like the band was parodying itself. This isn’t a question, I guess, but I’ll hang up and listen, regardless.
Keith Law: I’m just out on them at this point. I agree with you that they’ve descended into a sort of parody of their earlier selves. They’ve certainly become less ambitious musically and lyrically, and seem more geared towards the commercial than ever before. It’s a shame; An Awesome Wave remains one of the most interesting and inventive albums I’ve ever heard.

Evan: Favorite restaurants in New Orleans
Keith Law: god, it’s been so long since I was there. I’m sure the best destinations have turned over a ton since then. I think the last time through I went to Cochon and/or Cochon Butcher, which were great.

Adam D.: Any under-the-radar college prospects on the west coast we should know about? I follow San Diego State and Cal pretty closely, but wondering who else I should be keeping an eye on. Thanks!
Keith Law: I think it’s too early to say. I’ll have a draft ranking up next week, hoping midweek after I make a quick trip to GA.

Condor: Chris Russo has been, not surprisingly, pro-clubs and pro-Manfred. He works for MLB and golfs with Manfred. Plus, if you differ from him, he yells over you.
Keith Law: Look at the voices who support owners right now and see who might pay some of their bills. A lot of them have ties to MLB (via TV or radio), or to individual clubs. Not all, certainly, but many do.

Gil: In your time w the Blue Jays were there ever any specific moves based solely on saving the owner money?
Keith Law: I mean, we traded Raul Mondesi just to get rid of his contract. I don’t think that’s that bad or unusual, though.

Steve F: Point of order: 2004-05 in the NHL was a lockout not a strike, and the owners locked the players out again in 2013.
Keith Law: Important distinction. Thank you.

Dr. Bob: Thanks. Follow up, please. Did most scouts at the time (1) resist the new ways and fade away, (2) slowly get on board, (3) quickly adapt to the changes?
Keith Law: I would be reluctant to make generalizations like that. I couldn’t possibly know enough people to give a fair and accurate answer.

Dave: Could a whole bunch of problems or “problems” (pace of play, lack of baserunners, pitching to strikeouts) be solved by changing walks to 3 balls? I’m sure there would be initial growing pains but it seems like a quick way to increase offense without weird shit like moving the mound back.
Keith Law: Eek. No thank you.

David: Hi Keith, When evaluating prospects for the Top 100 list, do you consider a person’s character as much as it can be known? For example, I know you’ve been a critical of the Pirates’ Ji-hwan Bae (and rightfully so). Would you exclude someone from your list if they had a history like his? Thanks!
Keith Law: Bae was on my Pirates list a year ago, with the note about his assault on his girlfriend. He wasn’t on it this year because I just don’t think he’s that good a player – beyond any considerations about whether he should be employed by the team.

Zac: The Jackson Jobe pick is a huge risk as you’ve pointed out, but what is his ceiling in compared to the Tigers other pitching “prospects” (Mize, Skubal, Manning)?
Keith Law: As high a ceiling as any of those guys, with the higher risk of zero return as well.

Sage: Thoughts on recent Jack McDowell interview about current state of MLB?
Keith Law: Didn’t hear it. Not sure I need to?

Anthony: I know its REALLY early as neither are draft eligible this year but do you have any thoughts on Tennessee RHP Chase Dollander and UCLA RHP Thatcher Hurd?
Keith Law: I almost never spend time looking into players who aren’t eligible. The audience for that information is close to nonexistent and it doesn’t support my draft coverage.

Jace: Is there any scenario where we get away from the performative dip-shittery that we saw at the SOTU, on Twitter, talk shows, etc or is this just who we are now?
Keith Law: I think this is who we are now. Those people do that stuff because it works. If you want a behavior to stop, don’t reinforce it with attention.

Nick: I know the MiLB players are not part of the union, but will the lockout impact the minor league season?
Keith Law: It shouldn’t. About 14 players will be missing from every system, because they’re on the 40 man and thus are locked out, but everyone else can play. MLB teams will have to decide what to do – do they sign some extra indy ball types or other older FAs to fill AAA rosters, or promote players in the system and backfill in low A with guys who’d be in extended or some undrafted college seniors from 2021?

Mike: Why you gotta rank everything and make lists ?  What put things in box?
Keith Law: Gotta give the people what they want!

Jace: Austin Eats beyond Franklin BBQ? Qui is closed
Keith Law: I have to look up one place, stand by…
Keith Law: Better Half! I always forget its name. Loved that place. Backspace pizza was solid. People rave about Interstellar BBQ; I haven’t been, and Texas Q is tough for me since i stopped eating cow about five years ago.

Insert Witty Name Here: Keith, been reading you since time immemorial. You were always open with mental health and your struggles with it. Two parter: 1) How have you been doing? 2) Do you think the national conversation regarding mental health is doing a good job communicating and educating on causes and conditions of mental health?
Keith Law: Thank you for asking. I’m doing well, I think. I’m in therapy regularly, and I at least know what I need to work on, and what I need to do to take care of myself. I’m exercising again, as the weather allows, which will only get easier going forward (we belong to a gym, but I will take running outside over the treadmill any day now that I’ve gotten accustomed to it). Any conversation about mental health is a good conversation, but there’s still too little understanding and way too many opinions from people who don’t have the background or knowledge to insert themselves into that conversation.

Guest: Would there be a different attitude among the owners if the owners had to answer any specific labor issues to the media themselves instead of having the commissioner do it?
Keith Law: Probably. Also, we assume the owners are monolithic. I guarantee you there are at least two or three saying, “just strike a deal, we don’t care, we’re making plenty of money even if we take the players’ last offer!” But we don’t hear that – we hear one voice.

Romorr: I think it’s funny when Oriole fans harp on rankings. I looked at your list and came away thinking, I need to pay more attention to Joey Ortiz. Same with Gillaspie.
Keith Law: I think it’s funny too. When someone accuses a national writer of bias against a team, they’re telling on themselves, not the writer.

Deeeedeeee: What new films are you looking forward to this year?
Keith Law: I have to admit i don’t track what’s coming, unless I happen to catch a trailer. We’re still catching up on 2021 – we have four BP nominees left to see, and all five international nominees as well.

chauncey: thoughts on the lockout?
Keith Law: I mean, could you narrow it down a bit?

JT: I don’t only subscribe to the Athletic for you, but I definitely value having access to your writing a whole lot. Keep passing this along to your editors.
Keith Law: Thank you! I wouldn’t expect anyone to subscribe just for me, or if they did, they’d probably realize we have a lot of great writers.

Phil: Is it fair for Lia Thomas to compete in Ivy League women’s swimming?
Keith Law: Yes. She’s a woman.

Nick X: Have you ever listed to a musical artist who was on Top-40 radio?
Keith Law: Is top 40 radio still a thing? Anyway, yes, of course. I grew up listening to top 40 radio – literally, in the case of America’s Top 40.

TacoCharlton: hattie b’s or princes for Nashville hot chicken ?
Keith Law: I tried Hattie B’s for the first time last year and really liked it, but I also think my limitations in that department are pretty clear. I was not made to eat really spicy foods.
Keith Law: Like, I think chili particles show up in my sweat after I eat it.

addoeh: Still out on Top Chef?  New season started last night.
Keith Law: Well, after they glossed over an alleged sexual harasser winning last season, I haven’t felt the call to return to watching. Are they hawking NFTs now too?

TacoCharlton: What are your go-to sides at bbq place ? Get pecan pie ?
Keith Law: Fried okra, if they have it.

Paul: Random question but are you loyal to a specific airline and hotel chain in order to increase your status/upgrades with a particular company? Or do your employers just book you on whatever flight they can.
Keith Law: I am, not for status purposes but to collect points for personal travel.

Anthony: I kind of struggle with believing in Chase DeLauter but given his ranking I seem to be in the minority. Does him not facing top competition on a regular basis make his evaluation tougher? When he actually did play a team with a solid amount of talent he did not do well.
Keith Law: Florida State’s two main lefties depantsed him – and word got around. He’s going to go in the first round, I think, but people are aware of the very issue you raise.

bobby: You’re need to lift heavy waits broseph.
Keith Law: This has to be a joke.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: I know you’ve discussed this elsewhere, but lost track between your chats, articles, and tweets:  where do you stand on the three proposed rule changes for a pitch clock, larger bases, and no shifts?
Keith Law: Pitch clock is a double-edged sword – it may increase some pitcher injuries. Banning the shift is stupid. I have no opinion on the bases.

Matt: You may have addressed this before, but with Sal Perez under contract for 4 more years, could you see the Royals breaking MJ Melendez in in some sort of hybrid role where he’s the backup catcher and plays somewhere else in the field other days? I know these things tend to work themselves out, but Melendez is essentially knocking on the door at this point and Sal’s not going anywhere!
Keith Law: I did, in fact, address it right here in my Q&A with our own Alec Lewis.

mss: Your’re telling me you don’t eat Italian Sausage !?!!
Keith Law: I do if it’s pork, which it should be.

stixx23: Do you think we will see a woman play in the major leagues in our lifetime (say, next 30-40 years)?
Keith Law: I’d give you about even money odds on that. She’ll face discrimination at every possible step, though.

Paul: Given everything going on – would it make sense for Biden to come out today and announce another massive infrastructure/energy bill? One that in the short term, yes increases the amount of drilling for fossil fuels, but longer term projects of nuclear plants in WV, wind farms in the midwest and solar farms in the southwest? Surely if there is ever a chance for us to break free from our dependence on autocratic petrostates this would be our last best chance?
Keith Law: Agreed. It could even force some Big Oil advocates in Congress to take a stand on the issue – would they turn down a short-term investment in our petroleum industry to score a political point?

Dave: Any sense of how teams are planning to handle April for prospects on the cusp of the bigs, but not on the 40-man? Thinking of Greene and Tork with the Tigers specifically, but I think Julio Rodriguez fits that bill too. Start them at AAA? Keep them around for big league camp?
Keith Law: There is no big league camp, right? So they’ll go play in AAA. Not the perfect outcome but a good enough one.

TomBruno23: We have discussed him before in the chat, especially in regards to graduating HS early and enrolling at Vandy…what is going on with Christian Little pitching in middle relief this season?
Keith Law: Is he just another kid who enrolled in college early only to end up worse off? Nate Savino looked like he’d be one of those guys, but he’s had two good starts in non-conference play for UVA.

Mike: Have you read any of Erik Larson’s books? They seem up your alley.  Also just finished A Gentleman in Moscow by Amor Towles that had a very “Confederacy of Dunces” vibe.
Keith Law: I have not; I read part of Devil in the White City and his emphasis on the lurid aspects of the HH Holmes half of the story really turned me off. I have zero interest in that.

TomBruno23: What can I, as a schmuck living in St. Louis County, Missouri, do to help the Ukrainians? Donate to organizations and, if so, which ones?
Keith Law: I gave to World Central Kitchen, Jose Andres’ nonprofit.

Omead: Will Jeren Kendall ever figure it out?
Keith Law: I highly doubt it.

JT: There’s no hope left for the GOP now. How does America play out over the next decade? How far from democracy will your country descend?
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s a bottom. We are headed towards a theocracy, in a country that is becoming more secular all the time.

Tim: One of the players’ main grievances is that some teams are not trying hard enough to compete. In that vein, aren’t deadline trades problematic? How is it good for competition when bad teams send good players to good teams for the last two months of the season, leading to greater competitive disparity? Max Scherzer hates “tanking,” but he was happy to abandon the listing Nats for the already loaded Dodgers. It seems hypocritical.
Keith Law: I don’t see this parallel at all, sorry.

Guest: Is this the hardest year to rank prospects given how atypical the development path has been for so many in the last two years? e.g. Ed Howard might suck or might just have a huge learning curve due to time off
Keith Law: Last winter was harder, with almost no new information available on players. At least this past cycle, we could discuss 2021 performance and scouting reports, with the caveat that the lost 2020 season affected different players in different ways. I would counsel all fans to be more open-minded on players who struggled in 2021 than they might have in previous years.

Aaron G: Please, won’t you think of the owners? You’re such a shill for the players, some of whom might even play in the majors for a few years at minimum salary!
Keith Law: There’s a weird group of Twitter accounts who love to run around calling anyone who advocates for the players’ positions a “Boras shill” or something similar. It seems artificial – like someone spoonfed them that phrase.

Nels: Am i wrong to be a little annoyed at some of the reporting that went on in Florida last week? There was a lot of over-dramatization of people walking across parking lots and at the end of the day the reporting was filtered through PR anyways. Not sure I saw the point of a lot of it.
Keith Law: It ended up much ado about nothing but I assume there was value in having people on the ground there in case the two sides had struck a deal.

Anthony: I know injuries to pitchers definitely vary player to player but given how some college teams really overwork their pitchers, is it fair to be wary of said teams in terms of projecting their starters for overuse? (UCLA comes to mind as relatively recent starters like James Kaprielian and Griffin Canning have definitely struggled with health)
Keith Law: I know teams consider this. There were several Rice pitchers who were drafted later than they might have been from other schools because the whole industry knew that, under Graham, Rice pitchers got hurt a ton.

Nick X: My buddy Joe F. once got schooled by you on Twitter in a Pete Rose debate.  We were roasting him about it recently and he claims he won because MLB promotes gambling now.  We already made fun of that point but would you care to roast him one last time? We’d truly appreciate it
Keith Law: I’m pretty sure MLB doesn’t promote its own players gambling. That’s kind of the key difference, no?

Jasper: Ever had overnight oats ?
Keith Law: I just can’t get into them. I have tried it, but despite the fact that I like almost anything with oats in it (okay, perhaps not haggis), I find oatmeal pretty boring. It needs way more salt than most people put in it – it’s a grain, like rice, not a ‘cereal’ like Lucky Charms.

TomBruno23: My lovely state of MO is considering a bill that will finally legalize sports gambling but only in casinos and inside pro sports stadiums. Cannot make this shit up.
Keith Law: Sure. Follow the money and see who funded those legislators.

John: You’ve often referred in passing to your belief that a drafted HS player should go ahead and sign, rather than going to college. I apologize if you’ve done this and I missed it, but can you elaborate? I suspect part of your opinion is based on MLB’s scholarship for players after they stop playing. But considering that scholarship is taxable income (still valuable, but effectively not a full scholarship), is there a certain level in the later rounds of the draft where the player should consider going to college instead?
Keith Law: It’s a generalization, but yes, the scholarship plan is a big part of it, as is the need to capitalize right now in case your value as a player is peaking. The blanket assumption that all players will be better at 21 than they were at 18 is not accurate. Guys get hurt. Guys plateau, or regress. Guys get out of shape. They flunk out of school, or get in trouble. Sometimes you peak at 18. I’m not a Bruce Springsteen fan but isn’t that the whole point of that insipid song?

Sage: Any interest in coming to Chicago’s pizza fest?  
https://chicagopizzafestival.com/
Keith Law: Are they serving actual pizza, or just the thing they call “pizza” in chicago?

Daniel: Does Will Smith or Diego Cartaya have the versatility to play a different position? Seems that will have to come up soon
Keith Law: Cross that bridge when you get there – which I think is at least two years away.

TomBruno23: What are your thoughts, if any (I guess some if you post this Q) about Jeter leaving the Marlins?
Keith Law: I really don’t know what the cause was, which leaves me feeling like there’s little I can say of value here. I did point out that Jeter brought Gary Denbo and some other people over from the Yankees, and I don’t know if their job status was tied to him at all.

Dr. Bob: It seems to me that the guys who might really benefit from the lockout are guys who were probably going to be called up this year but aren’t yet on the 40-man roster. They’ll get a normal ST and then play in AAA to show how they’re advancing. Then when play starts, they’ll be ready.
Keith Law: Quite possible, and then maybe they get a full year of service out of the shortened season?

Matt: Honest question, not intended to be confrontational. Is there any political issue that you lean right (or even moderate) on? You seem to take a very left, progressive position on every issue I’ve seen discussed.
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s accurate at all; I take pro-science, evidence-based positions. I believe in the separation of church and state, as the Establishment Clause of our Constitution guarantees. I believe that tax policies should be guided by evidence on what is likely to do the most economic good, and that using the tax code to guide behaviors is, at least, not always good policy, and often amounts to paternalism. (A tobacco tax to fund health care may make economic sense; a tobacco tax to deter people from smoking may not, and do I really care if you smoke yourself to death as long as I’m not trying to eat over here?) I think your inaccurate impression is a framing problem: When the “right” is this far from the center, rational, evidence-based ideas may seem “left.”

David: For the reader who asked about New Orleans food, I can vouch for Cochon. I still remember the ribs, pickled watermelon and iced tea that I got there.
Keith Law: Glad to hear they’re still going.

Mike P: Isn’t it sad that we consider things like acknowledging the threat of climate change, making it easier rather than harder for people to vote and allowing women to control their own reproductive rights to be “liberal” or “progressive,” and not mainstream?
Keith Law: Or accepting what scientists have known for a half a century, that gender and biological sex are not binary? Or that vaccines are safe and effective, which is backed by a hundred years of evidence?

Brian: We’ve officially hit the point where Tucker Carlson is demanding to see the LSAT’s of the first ever African-American female Supreme Court nominee (which even potting aside the obvious and not subtle racism is stupid for about 10000 different reasons) because he can’t possibly believe a black woman would be smart. But hey teaching CRT is still clearly the biggest issue in this country (eye roll)
Keith Law: I think 90% of the CRT “debate” was astroturfed bullshit designed to rally the right’s base, but there’s 10% “we don’t want to teach kids how bad our history is” so they don’t realize how racist that Carlson thing was.

stixx23: Following up on my Q about the first female player. Any thoughts on a more likely position? Reliever seems the easiest path (don’t have to hit usually and could be a specialist – lefty, knuckler, etc.) especially since it would take an exceptional talent to overcome the “horror” of a “girl” replacing a position player on the roster.
Keith Law: Pitcher. Not sure whether the role matters necessarily and they’d never have to it. Why couldn’t a woman develop the arm strength to throw 90-92 and get high spin rates on a breaking ball?

Insert Witty Name Here: no question I just find this funny: this guy at work agrees with every single principle that Bernie says, but still claims he’s a conservative.
Keith Law: That is funny.

Nick: Do you enjoy Brandywine coffee from Wilmington? They have it at my local shop in Detroit, and I find it to be quite delicious..
Keith Law: They sell it in Detroit? Crazy. We can walk to one of their shops (Brew Ha-ha) and I think as local coffee shops go they’re solid. I do prefer the coffee from Re-Animator in Philly, as my nearby options go, though.

Paul: To respond to the earlier question about leaning right – eliminating tariffs (lower manufacturing costs) and having looser immigration policies (lower labor costs) have, from my understanding, been at least right wing from an economic perspective. (I may be wrong that those are two positions of yours, but I thought I read a previous chat where you were in support of eliminating tariffs.)                                  With today’s republican party though – who the f- knows.
Keith Law: Agreed. I’ve always advocated for open immigration. Most economists will tell you tariffs are bad. I’d certainly oppose federal or state wage/price controls. I don’t agree with the idea of government ownership of industry, which is, you know, what actual socialism is. (Ask anyone who throws that word around as a pejorative to define it. Fun will ensue.)

Mike P: Knowing how strongly you feel about climate change and fossil fuels’ unmistakeable contribution to it, I’m surprised that you are OK with even a short-term nod to that industry on more investment. Don’t mean to be rude or antagonistic, just a bit confused.
Keith Law: I’m a pragmatist. And if we do nothing, and then the GOP takes over again in 2024, the long-term damage to the planet may be irreversible. If passing an energy bill like that now creates some positive change, while also decreasing the changes of a right-wing autocracy coming, so much the better.

Jay’s friend: Does Jay Allen have 30/30 .300/.400 CF potential? Possible top 20 end of year? What could stop him from reaching his ceiling?
Keith Law: I’ll send you to my Reds top 20 for the answer to that. What could stop him = what could stop 95% of HS position player prospects: We have to see how he hits decent pro pitching.

Greg: If Jeter had played a different position (more adequately than SS I mean), would he have been a surefire Hall of Famer?
Keith Law: If he’d been an average defender at third base for 20 years? Probably.
Keith Law: Might actually improve his statistical case, at least.

Insert Witty Name Here: Any thoughts on the possibility that analytics are the root cause of the current labor strife? I know owners always repressed salaries, but once the really smart people got into the FO, the shift of player salaries for really skewed.  So basically this is all your fault? /s
Keith Law: I don’t buy that argument at all. The owners were always going to find a way to win more while paying players less. Analytics were just another tool. If it wasn’t that, it would have been something else.

Clay, Rutherford: What can MLB do differently to expand the game to Europe and develop more quality players? A handful of their teenagers get signed every year, though most are released before they even graduate from the complex leagues. I know Mike Piazza manages the Italian National Team; more involvement from MLB veterans seems like a good place to start.
Keith Law: I joked on Twitter a week ago that MLB players who are locked out should go play overseas to stay ready while also growing the game. Imagine if Xander Bogaerts and Didi Gregorius went to play in the Honkbal Hoofdklasse for a month – crowds would swell, it’d be front-page news, and even though everyone would know they were leaving in a few weeks, it would help expose the sport more in that country. (Gregorius was born there, and Bogaerts is a Dutch citizen as an Aruba native.) There are smaller leagues all over the world, some of which only play in the MLB offseason, but many of which play now. Send a few to Italy, a few to Germany, a few to Czechia, a few to China, and so on. It’d be a bit of a goodwill tour. I know the counterarguments – if a player gets hurt, then what happens – but from a top-down perspective, I think it would do so much good for the sport.
Keith Law: That’s all for today. Thank you all again for reading. I’ll have my first MLB draft content for 2022 up next week – I hope a top 30 ranking plus some notes on Jones and Johnson, if the weather is more favorable this time around. In the meantime, you can see all of my pro prospect rankings content here, on this handy index page. Stay safe everyone.

It’s been too long, so let’s do one more of these before the holiday.

Keith Law: It was Christmas Eve (Eve), babe … in the Klawchat…

Joe: For the Eppler and Showalter hires, fair to say they are bad process, but good result?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. Eppler, maybe a bad process, but a great result. Showalter is a terrible process leading to a bad result. The owner saw the red flags, and ignored them. They may win a few more games this year, maybe even advance in the playoffs (although Showalter doesn’t have a great playoff track record), but the internal personnel cost will supersede that.

Hank: At what point in the lockout will we have to worry about a delayed season and/or missed games?
Keith Law: If the players can get in 3 weeks of spring training, we won’t miss regular season games.

Mac: If Carter Young cuts down on the swing could he go in the top half of the first round?
Keith Law: Cuts down on the strikeouts, yes. Right now, he’s Logan Davidson, at best, which is the very back of the round.

Evar: Best guess…who is the fastest player to even play in MLB?
Keith Law: Billy Hamilton.

Bruce: Is it feasible for the Phillies to use Stott at SS starting in 2022, both from the is he ready to hit in MLB side and also can he succeed as a SS long-term and improve their defense?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: On what evidence would you say he’s ready to hit in the majors right now? I mean, it’s possible that he is, but the evidence doesn’t seem to suppor that.

addoeh: Least favorite household chore?  Washing the dishes is the worst for me.
Keith Law: Don’t mind that. I hate chores that don’t produce a visible or tangible result. Wash the dishes? Clean dishes, clean sink, clean counters. That’s sufficient psychic reward for me.
Keith Law: Laundry, vacuuming, ironing – all produce a visible result. I don’t mind those. I actually like ironing. I get in the flow of that one. For least favorite … I mean, weeding produces a tangible result, but it’s endless.

Chris: What’d you think about Jerry dipoto’s comment about trying Julio in centerfield some this year?
Keith Law: Not out of the question. I don’t think he’s a CF long-term, but sounds like he could handle it on a part-time basis now.

Ethan: There was talk of Heaney having a Robbie Ray like breakout in LA. Buying it?
Keith Law: There is a lot of space between Andrew Heaney 2021 and Robbie Ray 2021. I’ll take something in the middle.

Molly: What should we expect from a full MLB season from Joey Bart?
Keith Law: 20+ homers, some walks, low average, OBP in the low .300s, plus defense.

Skrip: Is Ted Cruz actually serious about running for president in ’24? Or is this yet another blatant attempt to keep himself in the news as often as possible? I’d sooner vote for Big Bird as governor of Texas.
Keith Law: If you’d asked me in 2014 if Trump was serious about running for President in ’16, I would have said it was a blatant attempt to keep himself in the news, and he’d never win. I overestimated the country.

Johnny Utah: I really wanted to listen to your interview with Alton Brown but I boycotted your podcast because you gave Julie DiCaro a platform. She’s literally the worst. Literally.
Keith Law: I’ve never interviewed Alton Brown, and you’re a moron. Fuck off.

Dana: Can Gallo handle a season in CF if the Yanks sign/acquire a corner OFer?
Keith Law: I think he can handle the defense, but worry about him being healthy and productive if he’s playing 150 games there.

Aaron Rodgers Family: We told you he was nuts.
Keith Law: He’s about two webcast interviews away from endorsing Q.

Tom: What’s your Favorite Alcoholic Holiday Beverage?
Keith Law: I don’t drink anything different around the holidays, unless there’s homemade eggnog around, but I haven’t made that in years because no one drinks it from me.

Brenden: Critical race theory gets a lot of attention. But I haven’t been able to find a good read on what it actually is in practice that isn’t coming from a political angle. What is a good source I can learn more about it?
Keith Law: I’d go back to Kimberlée Crenshaw, who coined the term, for her definitions. She also gave a great interview with Vanity Fair this summer about the made-up controversy around CRT. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/07/how-critical-race-theory-maste…

Troy: Is Keston Huira fixable offensively?
Keith Law: Yes, but someone has to undo whatever the Brewers did to his swing. He looks like he’s swinging an axe, but upside down.

JR: Were you surprised how many deals were completed before the lockout? Wouldn’t both sides have an incentive to wait and see what new CBA looked like? Or the uncertainty made the existing rules more appealing?
Keith Law: I was – but your second question might be right. Maybe both sides just wanted to lock in what they could.

Matt: Why did free agents sign deals if they knew they were gonna be locked out? Aren’t they missing out on what’s probably gonna be more money in a new CBA?
Keith Law: We don’t know that. What if the minimum salary goes up by 80-100%, so there’s relatively less money going around for veterans.

Don: Do you buy that the Sox didn’t give the qualifying offer to Rodon as a favor to him? Or did they just mess up?
Keith Law: They know his arm better than anyone.

JR: You were about the only one I saw to note how little sense Thor’s signing was for both sides. Thor wants to rebuild value and stay healthy; LAA will push him hard to make playoffs and will have no incentive to limit his innings if they are in contention late. Seems like a potential for both sides to end up regretting it.
Keith Law: Agreed.

section 34: Who is the Carson Wentz of baseball?
Keith Law: I’m sorry, your question was intercepted on its way to the chat.

xxx(yyy): favorite Christmas cookie?
Keith Law: We make tricolor cookies, sometimes called 7-layer cookies (wrong, there should only be chocolate on one side) or rainbow cookies (wrong, unless your rainbow has three colors) or Italian flag cookies (I’ll allow it). They’re such an endeavor that we almost never do it any other time.

Brian: What’s the early timeline on offseason prospect list updates?
Keith Law: If you’re asking when my prospect lists will come out, we are aiming for January 31st.

Matt: Did you know the “War on Christmas” started when southern evangelicals complained to Ronald Reagan that they didn’t like people saying Merry X-mas, and not Merry Christmas. The Right ran with it for 40 years and here we are.
Keith Law: Anyone who falls for the “war on christmas” nonsense probably also thinks we’re teaching critical race theory in kindergarten and that vaccine mandates are communism. Also, the real threat to christmas is the inexorable decline of religiosity in developed nations. Good luck with that one!

xxx(yyy): 2021s best new cookbook?
Keith Law: Nik Sharma’s The Flavor Equation.

Jason: When are players no longer part of the union? When they officially retire? I’m mainly curious about retired players who now work for teams
Keith Law: You’re in the union if you’re on a 40-man roster. That’s it.

Adam D.: If the reports are true that the Giants are no enamored enough with the current free agents to hand out any nine-figure deals, do you agree with Farhan and company sticking to that process, or do you feel like a big-market team like the Giants owe it to the fanbase to make a splashy move?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with the idea that a team has to mollify a fanbase with a deal they think isn’t good from a baseball perspective.

Chris: Keith, have you had a chance to scout Boston’s Brayan Bello? Does he have the ceiling of a MLB Starting Pitcher in a system thin (barren?) on SP prospects?
Keith Law: Reliever risk there for sure. I don’t think he’s their most likely big-league starter.

Dave: True or False. Trump endorsing the vaccine will begin the MAGA backlash against him
Keith Law: Already has, no?
Keith Law: The cognitive dissonance around that one will be enough to cloud out the sun for weeks.

Joshua: As a Nats fan, is there any chance that Victor Robles becomes even close to the top 10 prospect player many thought he would become? Or is it time to maybe trade him and let him get a clean start? Thanks.
Keith Law: Not until he starts hitting the ball harder.

Don: Andrew Vaughn and Garrett Crochet for Matt Olson? Who says no?
Keith Law: Why would the White Sox do that? If Vaughn is what they believed him to be on Draft Day, he’ll become Olson or better.

Matt: If pitching velocities keep going up, doesn’t there reach a point where hitters can’t hit?
Keith Law: They can’t go much higher than they are now, but also, we’ve learned that hitters can hit 100 mph+ if they can figure out when it’s coming.

JR: Did you get to meet Lauren Mayberry in person when you saw her on tour recently (if so, you’re a lucky bastard)? Or did your podcast not result in an in person invite? PS – I caught the tour in Vegas, show was excellent. I was glad they didn’t have the guys sing a song, like they did last time I saw them live lol.
Keith Law: We did not, alas, but the show was still wonderful.

Joe: The Cubs keep saying they’re going to “spend intelligently,” which is probably a euphemism for “continue to be cheap.” But with their resources and lack of long term commitments, wouldn’t Correa be the most intelligent way to spend?
Keith Law: They spent on Stroman, so they weren’t cheap on that one.

Joshua: What type of ceiling do you believe Cole Henry has? He looked pretty good in the AFL (or so I’ve heard because I saw none of the AFL haha).
Keith Law: He’s had so many injuries already that his probability of staying a starter isn’t that high.

Grant: Do you see Congress enabling section 3 of the 14th amendment if Trump officially announces his intent to run?
Keith Law: I doubt they have the courage.

Cormac: Read Blood Meridian yet? Thoughts?
Keith Law: Yes, maybe 10 years ago. Great novel if you can stomach the violence.

Tom: D-backs will have a top ___ farm system after the 2022 draft.
Keith Law: Depends on who they take, no?

Appa Yip Yip: Rewild your lawn throw down clover and wildflowers. Grass is for suckers.
Keith Law: Better for the environment, too. Just not sure the neighbors would be cool with that.

JR: Toronto had Ray on their team for a year, so probably knew him better than anyone and essentially elected to give Gausman (a year older than Ray) the same money Ray got (OK, Ray got $5MM more), but does this alarm you at all? Obviously we don’t know Ray’s mindset (maybe he was adamant about not going back to Tor), but  wouldn’t you rather have Ray at 5/115, then Gausman at 5/110?
Keith Law: Would you? I’m not sure I would. It’s at least extremely close, to the point that I would not draw any conclusions from Toronto’s choice here.

Dude: Thoughts on Buxton signing? They do a good job of meeting in middle?
Keith Law: Yes, and I like the idea of him staying with the Twins, and the Twins potentially getting his MVP-level years, too.

Sedona: Did you get to watch Owen White at the AZL?  He was awarded as the best pitcher and seems like he has the tools.  Do you think he’s a legit rotation arm?  Ceiling?
Keith Law: Saw him, he looked good, and it’s great to see him healthy. Further than that, you’ll have to wait for the prospect rankings.

xxx(yyy): favorite Christmas movie?
Keith Law: Muppet Christmas Carol, obviously.

Mike: Keith, what did you think of the Red Sox trade with the Brewers?
Keith Law: Yawn. Binelas does hit the ball very hard, at least.

Turner: You have mentioned in your system rankings that the Orioles need to be much better on the international signings, when is a realistic time to check in and see if they have made improvements on that front?
Keith Law: They’re not there yet, at least. That takes years, maybe 4-5 years after you first reinvest in that side of the business, since you have to strike oral agreements with players when they’re 13 or 14 years old.

Ml: Is Ryan mountcastle a good enough hitter to be valuable despite his lack of defense?
Keith Law: To be more than replacement level? Yes. To be consistently above-average? Given his lack of defense and lack of patience, no, not yet.

Uncle Aaron: Weren’t you on track to have a HOF vote at one point?
Keith Law: I’ve had one for three years already.

John: Do you see Triston Casas eventually developing significantly more power?
Keith Law: I’d bet on yes.

Dude: Haven’t seen any Jud Fabian talk on ‘22 draft boards. Is there ANY chance he goes higher than last year?
Keith Law: Slim chance. The guy struck out at an excessive rate and couldn’t make adjustments.

John: The Brandon Walter emergence is interesting.  Considering that he was in your backyard in college, was ever on your radar?
Keith Law: Never. Not a prospect out of HS, of course. Missed his junior year with TJ, and wasn’t throwing this hard as a senior at UD.

JJ: Jesus was never vaccinated!
Keith Law: I mean, he also died at 33, so perhaps that’s not the W you think it is…

R. Mann: Have you ever heard the NYPD choir sing “Galway Bay”? It. Is. Stunning.
Keith Law: Only the Bing Crosby version.

Pat: How worried should Mets fans be about Showalter’s track record with young pitchers. Granted, they’re trying to win now & it won’t affect DeGrom & Max,, but, if he pulls the same idiocy that he pulled in Baltimore, it’ll affect them down the line.
Keith Law: Do they have any young starters to worry about? The system is heavily weighted towards bats right now, they don’t have a young starter in the potential OD rotation right now, and by the time someone like Matt Allan is on the radar, Buck will either have won a WS or been fired.

Henry: Thoughts on Joan Didion? Saddened about her passing.
Keith Law: Likewise. I feel like she’s remembered more for her novels and memoirs and not enough for her feature writing in the 1970s.

Curious in Seattle: Best guess on Harry Ford’s long term position?  Enough bat for the outfield?
Keith Law: Catcher.

Bob: Will the IFA date be pushed back if the lockout is still in effect, as expected?
Keith Law: Shouldn’t affect that.

Fradog: Why are Jays fascinated with Biggio? Can he play 2B at MLB level?
Keith Law: 1. I don’t know. 2. Not well.

Matt: Do you think Schilling gets in? Im seeing an alarming number of public votes for him.
Keith Law: Don’t know. I didn’t vote for him.

Heather: Did you have a reaction to everybody and their dog getting into the HOF a couple of weeks ago?
Keith Law: That process has become a farce. It’s largely invalidated the writers’ votes. Jim Kaat was never a Hall of Famer. Neither was Harold Baines. The players and managers on the committees are just putting in their buddies.

John: As a lefty who loves to cook, how do you feel about the municipalities banning gas stoves in new construction?
Keith Law: Sucks for cooking, but the environmental damage wrought by fracking is no joke.

JR: Have/will you watch new Spiderman or Matrix movies? Or not your thing?
Keith Law: Zero interest in the Matrix movie. I only watched the first one and thought it was fine but incredibly derivative.

Fradog: Can Espinal be MLB avg for Jays? Love the glove but not sold on bat.
Keith Law: Great extra player. Not a regular for me. Same reason you said.

ChrisP: I had someone go off about “big pharma” and how it’s impacting society…and it just made me think that these people have no idea what the reason is behind people living longer today than 100 years ago. It’s just this big elusive “evil” thing to them.
Keith Law: It’s something they read on Facebook, not something they understand. There’s this sort of magical thinking about the human body that occupies most of the people who oppose Big Pharma … sometimes it’s a religious belief, sometimes it’s a false appeal to nature, sometimes it’s just ignorance, thinking the body is like a car or other machine that behaves predictably in response to treatments. We’re just not smart.

Sedona: Out of Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson and Brandon Pfaadt…. which ones has the best chance to be a mid rotation arm?
Keith Law: That will certainly be answered in the Dbacks top 20 in January.

Cubbie Blue: Reginald Preciado, Kevin Alcantara, and James Triantos seemed to be getting a lot of buzz in short season ball.   You find them at least interesting as well?
Keith Law: I definitely answered that in the Rizzo trade writeup and Prospect of the Year columns.

John: This might seem like an odd question, but if you had a chance to do it again in the present day, would you go to Harvard again?  I hold the Ivy League schools in high regard, but depending on your major, I’d bet you might get a slightly better education at one of the top liberal arts schools.  (No bias — my alma mater is not in either category.)
Keith Law: Yes, because of the value of the name, and the power of the school’s network. But I agree I would have gotten a better education at a smaller school, and probably would have enjoyed it more.

Chris: What do you think about sports leagues shortening quarantine rules for vaccinated players who test positive?
Keith Law: As long as that’s based on the latest evidence, sure.

Chris: Just FYI I watched new Matrix last night and it was pretty terrible.  And I liked the first 3 (esp the first 2)
Keith Law: I’m not shocked. Fan service films/books usually aren’t very good.

Chris: i know youre usually *yawn* about the R5 draft, but im still having Whitlock PTSD, do you think someone could take Josh Breaux as DH/3rd C and I’d watch him bash homers?
Keith Law: Doubt that one.
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s that good and I don’t think he gets taken/kept.
Keith Law: Maria Torres wrote up a list of some Rule 5 candidates, and while I wouldn’t select all of those guys if I were a GM, there were some good names on there. Gilberto Jimenez is the best prospect who was left unprotected: https://theathletic.com/3020049/2021/12/16/a-rule-5-draft-candidate-fr…

Jenna: I know you have no interest in this whatsoever, but I’d seriously vote for you for president. Thoroughly impressed with your ideas, common sense, analytical abilities, virtually everything you opine. This country would be better off, I have no doubt.
Keith Law: Thank you, but that job would destroy me. I’m not cut out for that line of work, even assuming I could get more than my immediate family to vote for me.

Appa Yip Yip: My favourite thing (I hate it) about the people complaining about big pharma vaccines is that treatment is orders of magnitudes more profitable than prevention. Big pharma would love nothing more than to sell monoclonal antibody treatments in perpetuity to unvaxxed idiots.
Keith Law: Or a pill you have to take every day for the rest of your life. That’s the business model, and it’s why we have far more treatments for things like depression or high cholesterol or ADHD, even in the absence of clear evidence of efficacy, and fewer new antibiotics.

Jay: I watched the Veterans’ Committee HOF announcement on the MLB Network.  All of the announcers, without exception, acted like it was Babe Ruth, Walter Johnson, and Satchel Paige finally getting the call.  Are the announcers told to keep it upbeat, and to keep any dissenting opinions of HOF unworthiness to the themselves?
Keith Law: State Television.

Yinka Double Dare: Less perturbed at getting rid of gas ranges now that there’s an alternative to the electric coils, which are horrid. Induction ranges do pretty well for changing your temp quickly more like gas, although you have to get compatible cookware.
Keith Law: Which is a big expense for most people.

Joe: A lot of HOF voters have tied themselves in knots making excuses not to vote for anyone they can loosely tie to PEDs in any way. Now the same guys are tying themselves in knots trying to explain why it’s not hypocritical to vote for David Ortiz on the first ballot. It’s almost like it was never really about PEDs, and was just about keeping out the guys they didn’t like personally.
Keith Law: No question. If you vote for Ortiz, and not A-Rod, you’ve dropped the curtain.

John: I learned from my aunt last night that there is an underworld of children being farmed for their adrenaline.  News you can use.
Keith Law: Do they do that in pizzeria basements?

CY: I know it’s early, but thoughts on Druw Jones or Elijah Green for the Rangers at #3?
Keith Law: There are a lot of other players in this draft class. Those are just the most famous ones.

Sedona: Do you think Mize becomes a #2 starter?
Keith Law: Yes. I’m still a fan, even though we haven’t seen what I thought we’d see from him when he was first drafted.

Nick: In reference to your Eric Davis response as to players you wanted to see without injury…is Buxton on that trajectory?
Keith Law: I certainly hope not.

Tom: Think with emerging SP’s bailey ober and Joey Ryan, that the twins can emerge to be competitive in 2022?
Keith Law: I don’t believe those guys are the answer.

Tom: Anything to Jon Singleton getting buff this offseason? Are you buying him?
Keith Law: Meh. He’d be a great story, but the odds are well against him.

Sedona: Trevor Story’s away stats are atrocious.  Especially last year.  How much will teams take this into consideration when offering what seams will be a long term deal
Keith Law: Most Rockies hitters have had large home/road splits that have closed at least partway when they left Denver.

Adam: Growing up did kids ever sing “ i fought the law and the law won”?
Keith Law: Not really. I’m the wrong age for that. Lot of “Breaking the Law,” though.

Dude: Hamilton’s faster than Gore?
Keith Law: I’ve timed both guys multiple times and Hamilton was consistently faster home to first.

Guest: Should the dodgers move will smith   off of catcher? If so, which position?
Keith Law: Why?
Keith Law: Like, did something happen with Smith that I missed?

Sedona: Do you have a favorite off the radar / non pedigree prospect?
Keith Law: I love seeing guys who weren’t high picks or big bonus guys come from nowhere to become real prospects. Someone mentioned Walter above. Matt Brash is another. Players do change in unexpected ways. That’s the fun way to be wrong.

Appa Yip Yip: Didn’t they drop the curtain when Bud Selig was elected to the hall?
Keith Law: Every Commissioner gets in, right? Except Fay Vincent, because he dared to go against the owners.

Will Smith: Cartaya is coming up and Smith’s bat plays at other positions.
Keith Law: Cartaya looks like a superstar in the making, but he’s not exactly MLB ready now.

Chris: do you agree with the Yanks’ plan of going stopgap til Peraza/Volpe are ready, given their massive long term commitments to Cole and Stanton aleady, w Judge possibly coming? (proviso obv they could do all of it)
Keith Law: It’s risky, but I understand it … at some point, you do have to decide THIS prospect is the one you’re going to let develop.

xxx(yyy): what is the story with Profar? was he just not able to recover after the injury? were folks too high on his floor?
Keith Law: I feel like it was the two lost seasons. That’s the most parsimonious explanation.

Matt: How did a guy like Mike Piaaza get drafted in the 63rd round? And as a favor to Tommy Lasorda more or less. Like, how do so many scouts miss that?
Keith Law: Scouts didn’t miss anything there. He was awful his first two years in the minors, too. He repeated high-A and suddenly had huge power, and that carried over as he moved up the ladder. He didn’t play at all as a freshman at U Miami, then went to junior college, so who knows how much he was even scouted as an amateur.

Brutus Beefcake: Apologies if I’ve missed it already, but do you plan to publish a column explaining your HOF votes?  I know in years past you’ve contemplated not voting at all but I take it from your mention of not voting for Schilling that you did vote this year.
Keith Law: I have voted every year, and I will absolutely reveal my ballot. The Athletic just wants us all to reveal ours at once, I think next week?

Appa Yip Yip: Is Nate Pearson the Jays closer for the next five years (or until his arm explodes)?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t give up on him starting yet. I understand the reason for the question, but consigning him to a 70 inning a year role really cuts off a lot of upside.

xxx(yyy): ballpark, how often do NPs actually make the major leagues? 1% of the time? 3%? 5%? less than 1%?
Keith Law: I would bet under 1%. One in a hundred sounds aggressive. If you’re calling 1 in every 50 future big leaguers a non-prospect, you need to adjust your bar.

Henry: I’ve always found Gary Sheffield to be an interesting HOF candidate, but his defense was beyond atrocious.
Keith Law: It was, but if he were a DH, he would have probably sailed into the Hall – or at least gotten in sooner. His WAR numbers would have been much stronger and enough voters lean on that now that I think it’s worked against him.

Joe: There’s one anti-vax meme I’ve seen that says something along the lines of “If the vaccine is free to keep the nation healthy, then why aren’t chemo and insulin free?” It’s a meme that just blows my mind that they think that’s an argument in their favor. The anti-vax voters are the ones who are electing Senators who refuse to address the cost of medicine.
Keith Law: That’s almost true, but there’s also a sizable chunk of anti-vaxxers on the far left too. Strange bedfellows etc., but not every anti-vaxxer is a Q-supporting nutjob. (they’re all nutjobs, though.)

Marani: Which is more irksome:  the HOF voter who doesn’t vote for Jeter, Seaver, Pedro, et al because “nobody deserves to go in on the first ballot”, or the guy who tosses a vote to Tim Salmon or Tony Phillips because they were super nice to reporters after the game was over?
Keith Law: The latter. Don’t care about unanimous votes. Mariano didn’t get a special plaque, did he?
Keith Law: But don’t cheapen the process by voting for a player who was nice. If that’s how unseriously you take it, don’t vote.

DEF: No question, just wishing you and yours a happy holiday.
Sedona: Glad to have you back for chat after a few weeks off.  Happy Holidays!!
Keith Law: Happy holidays to all of you as well. I’ll try to get back on a regular schedule with these as we approach prospect rankings – and then I’ll do several around the launch of the rankings too. Have a safe holiday, everyone. Thank you all for reading.

Starting at 1 pm ET. Subscribers to the Athletic can read my second scouting notebook from the Arizona Fall League.

Keith Law: Look here junior, don’t you be so happy. It’s Klawchat.

Tim: What should be the first priority for the Cubs? Sign Correa?
Keith Law: That seems like the wrong direction. This team isn’t rushing back into contention in 2022, not with that rotation. They’re building now, whether they say so or not.

Millie: Who has the highest ceiling out of the AL rookie pitchers this season?
Keith Law: Does Shane Baz count in your mind? He’d be my choice.

James: How big a deal the DBACKS won the final game of season and pick second instead of first ?
Keith Law: History says it’s a big deal, based on how much more valuable 1st overall picks have been than 2nd. In this particular draft, I think it might be less of a big deal, because the class looks deep up top in bats, and I don’t think there is a clear 1-1 guy (yet).

Noah: Hi Keith, I’m just here once again to thank you for your reporting and chatting and also to do my weekly “how the hell is Sandy Alderson still running the Mets?” spiel.  But seriously, why and how?  (same goes for his son)
Keith Law: I don’t understand why he has any say in the new President/GM hires. I can only imagine it’s a Manfred thing. As for Brynn, the midyear promotion and new contract raised a lot of eyebrows around the sport. It doesn’t matter if he deserved it – that decision should be reserved for the new GM, and since his father gave it to him, it’s impossible to see it as anything other than nepotism.

James: What places have you gone to eat in AZ for the fall league ?
Keith Law: I wrote that up here yesterday.

Javis: Given the rough left-side defense and the wealth of SS talent available this offseason, should the Red Sox consider realigning Devers and Bogaerts to make room for a premium SS?  (Bogaerts to 2B? Bogaerts to 3B and Devers to 1B?)
Keith Law: I’m pretty sure they view Nick Yorke as their 2b of the future, and would probably avoid moving Bogaerts there as a result. OAA has both Xander and Devers among the worst in baseball at their positions this year, but is that their talent level, or perhaps a function of positioning? If it were just one, I’d blame the player, but with two guys on the same side of the infield both grading out that way, perhaps it’s systemic.

James: Been to tratto by Bianco in Phx to eat yet ??
Keith Law: Yes, right when it opened. Wonderful.

Deke: If you were in charge of the Padres, what would your offseason strategy be?

(Personally, mine’s “experienced manager, try to find some bullpen reinforcements, do whatever it takes to find a real first baseman, and do almost nothing else.” Getting healthy is the biggest task without a close second.)
Keith Law: Agree on the biggest task part. They probably make the playoffs if their rotation stays healthy. And with Gore looking like he’ll be ready to help, I’m more bullish on their starters. They’re also going to have to make a decision on Abrams/Tatis in the near term. One moves to CF, I assume, and then Grisham goes to a corner?
Keith Law: As for the manager, I don’t agree it has to be someone with experience in the majors. Just don’t hire someone with no managerial experience at all.

Aaron in Indy: Yeah, Klawchat.  

OK, looking at this from a outsider, but was stunned about the Mgr. change in St. Louis.  No bias (I’m a reds fan) but it seemed like Shildt had a decent but flawed team that played hard all year long and did reach the playofffs.  Any inside reason why the Cardinals organization made this move??
Keith Law: The local press has indicated it’s that he wouldn’t work with the R&D department as much as Mozeliak liked. To which I say, why the hell wouldn’t he?

Tim: Do you think Luis Robert will win an MVP in his career?
Keith Law: He has the tools to do so, but I think the approach at the plate will be the thing that keeps him from getting to the top. Of course, Abreu won last year, and wasn’t even close to the most valuable player in the league – or even top 5 – so who the hell knows.

JL: As an Atlanta fan, please tell me why I should feel this one won’t end differently than all the other heartbreaks they’ve given me in my lifetime. Please, Keith? I’m begging you.
Keith Law: I never made LCS picks before the series because I was in Arizona, but I said on TSN Vancouver after game 3 that I would have picked the Dodgers before the series started, even though the odds were now more stacked against them. I’m sticking with that. They have the pitching advantage now, even though they have to win two games.
Keith Law: I guess that’s not the answer you asked for.

Deke: Did you see the incredibly assholish JD Vance tweet mocking the Alec Baldwin situation? It’s just incredible where we are these days.
Keith Law: No, but I wish folks would just ignore his performative assholishness, because attention is all he’s after.

bk: Are you still in AZ? Will you get to see Gabriel Moreno?
Keith Law: I left on Sunday. He wasn’t there.

Dave: Are you team dark mode or light mode on iPhone?
Keith Law: Light mode. Much better for your eyes.

Gabe: im looking to get into the fiction genre , what book would be a good start?
Keith Law: It depends a bit on your tastes, but if you’ve really not read fiction since high school, try something genre that appeals to you – a good mystery, sci-fi, fantasy, whatever fits. You’ll learn what you like as you continue reading, and then if you decide you want, say, more “serious” literature, you can move up to that.

Brian, CT: Keith, Tennis has effectively gotten rid of line judges and gone to all electronic calls. How much longer are baseball fans going to have to put up with what happened in Game 4 of the ALCS?
Keith Law: The automated strike zone is coming. Maybe 2023.

Alex In Austin: Your reporting from the AFL and automated strike zone was informative.  Do you think with more time and adjustments that pitchers would be more aggressive in the zone and long-term it could lead to more swings and a faster pace?  Or, should the zone just be expanded an inch on both sides?  I guess the good news is it seemed accurate.
Keith Law: My personal opinion is that they’ll have to widen the zone a little bit to avoid games like the last one I saw, with 22 walks in 7.5 innings. But with an automated zone, you can fine-tune it (during offseasons, please, not midyear or even midgame) to get the desired levels of called balls and strikes.

Alex: Just curious, but did you ever end up reading Klara and the Sun?  Always enjoyed your thoughts about Kazuo Ishiguro’s books but didn’t see a review posted here.
Keith Law: Not yet. It hasn’t been out that long.

Clayton: After Gore, Abrams, Campusano and Hassell, anyone stand out to you in the Padres organization?
Keith Law: I mean, that’s good enough, no?

KM: What are good body wash / deodorant / etc options for someone with sensitive skin and no toxic chemicals / ingredients? (I know you’re well educated on a variety of issues and value you your opinion)
Keith Law: I’ve never looked into that, but beware products that claim to be “non-toxic.” The dose makes the poison. “Non-toxic” is pandering marketing speak. Also, don’t drink your body wash. Selenium sulfide is extremely effective at treating dandruff. Selenium itself is an essential trace mineral with antioxidant properties. It’s also poisonous at less than 1 mg/day.

Deke: I’m sure there’s an Athletic piece about this at some point, but if there’s not — how do you expect the big five (or four?) at SS to shake out? Who goes where?
Keith Law: I don’t do team predictions for free agents – I don’t see why my guesses provide any real value to you – but I have already begun free agent rankings, with some thoughts on what I think these players merit in the current market, and those will run on The Athletic right after the World Series.

Justin: Are you in favor of something like a $100 mil salary floor?  Even the Pirates might be watchable if they were forced to spend the $60 mil to get there and did so intelligently .
Keith Law: Not if it comes with a cap.

Cold Turkey Stearnes: Do the Padres get Gore on the 40-man this winter, hope rule 5 status keeps him in the org, or are they down enough on him to not care much?
Keith Law: Are you actually asking if the Padres would consider not protecting him? That’s … well, just read what I wrote about him last week.

Cole: Any thoughts on the Angels parting ways with Matt Swanson as scouting director?
Keith Law: I’m assuming Minasian wanted his own guy in that role – Swanson was an Eppler hire. Certainly not Swanson’s fault that the Angels rushed Adell, or traded Wilson to save a few bucks.

Zack: What app / device did you use to track your running? I know you mentioned it in a blog post way back?
Keith Law: Fitbit. Does the job well enough.

Adam: All I want for Christmas is a full, healthy season from Trout and Buxton in 2022.
Keith Law: Don’t we all. Throw Tatis in there too.

Jeff: Keith, what would you do with the glut of righthanded 1B/DH/LF on the White Sox?  Is to too early to consider trading Eloy and looking to get more balanced between LH/RH?
Keith Law: That’s an interesting thought. Not so much about getting more balanced L/R, but using the corner bat surplus maybe to address a need elsewhere.

This is about politics: SCOTUS is likely to uphold the Texas abortion ban. If they do, will this be the tiger-catches-its-tail moment for the GOP?
Keith Law: My gut reaction is yes, in that it will mobilize a lot of independent voters, but 1) that’s really not an evidence-based opinion and 2) if the GOP has gerrymandered the shit out of the country, will it matter?

gjf: I know you listen to music a lot , what headphones / earbuds do you recommend?
Keith Law: I have Bluetooth headphones from Raycon I really like for audio. They’re not great for phone calls but the audio quality is tremendous and their battery life is very strong.

Randy: I recall you saying you’ve heard mixed things about Elijah Green (before the showcase circuit). Where do you see his general range after his performance this summer? Top 5? Top 10? Closer to back of the first?
Keith Law: He’s going in the top 10 for sure, barring injury or some weird disastrous James Wood-type spring. I hear the same things on him – off the charts physical gifts, real questions on the hit tool.

Chris: If the Yanks give Seager over 300m and he has to move to 3B in a year or two, will he hit enough to justify it?
Keith Law: Yes.

Michael: have you seen or heard anything about how Nolan Gorman is taking to 2B?
Keith Law: Looked okay in the brief look I had in AFL, but not as good as he’s looked at third.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Is there a way to make a pitch clock work?
Keith Law: Yes.

Steve: Keith: has Houck shown enough of a 3rd pitch to profile as a starter next year.
Keith Law: Not yet.

nb: Hey Keith – As a suffering Phillies fan, I’m glad they’re making changes to the player development area.  I mean at this point guys like Kingery, Howard, Moniak are simply organizational failures.  My question is this:  When evaluating and rankings, how much stock do you put in the organization they’re with?  Let’s say there are 2 prospects who you had similar scores on heading into the draft and they both play the same position.  One gets drafted by the Phillies, the other by the Dodgers.  Does the fact that LA does a much better job developing their guys make the LA draftee a better prospect?  Thx!
Keith Law: I don’t consider it at all. Any player might be traded at any time, and an evaluation of the player should be team-agnostic.

R. Mann: Do you buy into “moving Torres to 2nd base makes him a better hitter”?
Keith Law: Helped Luis Urias this year.

Guest: What’s the slot money drop from picking #1 versus 2nd? The Pirates were able to pay for an extra 1st roundish player using savings.
Keith Law: About $600K this past year. That’s not what paid for the Pirates’ bonus to Solometo, though – they signed Davis well under slot, and that paid for it.

JR: Had Lindor not signed an extension and played out his last year making him a free agent, what type of contract do you think he gets this off season? More or less $/years?
Keith Law: Similar. Maybe the down year gets him a little less, but I doubt it – it’s not like he seemed to be an appreciably different player and he’s still quite young for a free agent.

Cold Turkey Stearnes: What is the lowest grade a defender will play a position at as a regular in the Majors?  Obviously a well-below average 1B would become a DH, but what is the line for say a CF moving to a corner, or a SS moving elsewhere on the infield?
Keith Law: Depends on your alternatives, no? Teams play below-average defenders at SS, CF, etc. because that’s the best option (sometimes to get a bat in the lineup).

PK: Best newish board game for 10 year old son to play with parents? We like cooperative games but he’s gotten better about losing recently (we’re Cubs fans).
Keith Law: How about Juicy Fruits? That’s my review from August or so. One of the best new games I’ve played this year and definitely good for a 10-year-old.

Jay: Given the Red Sox’ history with Mookie Betts (deciding to deal him, rather than give him a long term contract), do you see them shopping Devers this winter, when his value will be at its highest, rather than next winter, when he’ll be eyeballing free agency after the 2023 season?
Keith Law: My guess is they’ll try to extend Devers. Sounded like Betts was always determined to get to free agency.

Shane: Still reason to believe in Jeter Downs?
Keith Law: Yes. Two-level jump was probably too much to ask.

3EB: Is Anthony Volpe headed towards being one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball to start the season next year?
Keith Law: No.

Dan: Have you been following the local Ben Simmons drama? I generally always on the players side – holdouts, strikes, opt-outs – go get your money while you can and don’t let the team take advantage of your rare talent. But I can’t understand Simmons’ perspective here. It seems like he thinks some valid criticism of his play have made his team relationship irreparably damaged (as an outsider with limited inside knowledge, of course). I’m curious as to your thoughts given your experience with team-player relationships.
Keith Law: He plays basketball, right?

Chris: Keith, I don’t know what to make of Tristan Casas. I know a lot of people are very high on him, but stats-wise, the numbers aren’t there. I saw he hit a HR in the AFL the other night, but then also saw it was on a 93mph fastball. What’s the proper expectation for him next season, and then in the future?
Keith Law: I like him, obviously, given past rankings, although I think there’s a fair amount of projection involved there – that he’s going to hit for more power as he gets older. Looking back, I’d compare him in that way to Freddie Freeman, who didn’t get to power until several years into his MLB career (around when the league-wide HR spike began, too). Freeman was a solid producer in the minors, then a solid big leaguer for a few years, then became a superstar. That used to be a pretty typical career path. I’m not saying Casas will be Freeman but I could see a similar slow trajectory towards his ceiling.

Gerry in Philly: Preston Mattingly a good hire by Philly?  Minor league system is seriously flawed
Keith Law: I’ve heard excellent things. Met him a few times but never chatted more than casually.

Dave: I recall you being extremely bullish on Derek Hill when the Tigers drafted him.  He obviously hasn’t lived up to expectations, but seemed (to my untrained eye) to hold his own in the majors this year. Is there still room for growth there and/or reason for optimism?
Keith Law: Loved the swing, the defense, the speed. He’s disappointed for two reasons – he’s been hurt a lot, and he has refused to develop any kind of patience, which his sort of hitter absolutely has to have. You can’t be a fast low-power low-OBP guy unless you’re Andruw Jones on defense.
Keith Law: That said, he could still do it. I’m a Hinch fan, and I’d like to see what he and his staff can do with Hill over a full season.

Matt: Thanks for the chat, and the recent AFL writeup. As a Cleveland fan, I’m curious about Palacios. Kind of a guy who popped at the upper levels, and from everything I’ve read, finding a defensive home might be the biggest issue. I know AFL is a short look, but do you see him at 2B? Chances he could hit enough for LF? Or is this just an “interesting” guy who probably fits somewhere on the bench?
Keith Law: More than a bench guy for me. Maybe a Tampa Bay-style multi-position guy. He can hit/get on base, though. I’m in.

Ryan: Will the owners lock out the players? It would be really stupid to do so since the owners are making so much money on their teams, franchise values … and those greedy greedy players… how dare they want more money for the services they provide.
I just hope CBA talks stall we get a more balanced take on what’s going on as opposed to every
Keith Law: I think we get some kind of interruption, but I am just hopeful that the two sides see there’s too much money at stake to lose a chunk of the season.

Tony: About two years ago, I wrote to you in a chat asking about how you feel about prospects who you doubt certain skills. And how, you don’t take pleasure in saying, “See, I told you guys he wouldn’t make it.” It was actually centered around Austin Riley when his bad speed was getting majorly exposed at the MLB level. I believe your response was along the lines that you are delighted when you are proven wrong because that means a kid made it. I’m sure that has to be what you feeling for Riley now considering how much he really did struggle out of the gate. I’m glad that his team gave him the chance to keep working on his game to make those adjustments.
Keith Law: Absolutely. Can’t believe you remember that (I didn’t), but I appreciate you bringing it back up. Having spoken to Austin for my story, too, I can tell you he’s someone you want to root for. And I told him how proud he should be of himself for doing something so unusual – very, very few hitters can make this big of a change to their approach in the majors, and especially now with pitching as good as it’s ever been. It’s incredibly impressive and I’d say it’s one of the things I most love about my job – watching players grow and improve, whether I predicted it or not.

Jeff: Were you able to see CWS prospect Jose Rodriguez at the AFL?  If so, thoughts?
Keith Law: Yes, a little. (Sorry, just went to grab my notebook.) Kind of a slap hitter, bit stronger than that but below-average power, with no approach. See ball, hit ball.

Matt: What should our endgame for COVID be?  I don’t see the virus ever fully going away, and I don’t want to carry on with restrictions forever, either.
Keith Law: The restrictions are the price of ignorance. If everyone were vaccinated, the virus wouldn’t go away but its circulation would be diminished enough that we could get back to semi-normal. I’ll probably wear masks for a long time, though. (It’s nice to not get the flu or many colds, either.)

Mike Trout: Feels like a while since I’ve seen a movie review on your blog. See anything good lately?
Keith Law: Nothing in a while now. We’ll do more movies when the season ends.

Ted: FWIW, I agreed with your take at the time that the Cubs didn’t get enough for Darvish.  Looking at it now, do you see any of the four prospects obtained becoming a “guy”?
Keith Law: Preciado stands out. Still think the return was light, though.

Michael: My kid is a freshman in college. He seems depressed. Loves school, having a ton of fun, but not going to class and has trouble getting out of bed. I can’t make an adult go in to therapy and am trying to be supportive and also give tough love from afar. Any tips?
Keith Law: You did mention the one thing I’d push for – there should be tons of resources for him. You could reach out to the school as well. Not going to class is a big red flag, to say nothing of the possibility he fails a class or two.

Ryan: Saw the headline “MLB clubs plan to give housing to minor leaguers” this week. It was great that they cut all those minor league teams so teams had more to spend on things and do that to start this year… oh wait, MLB had to be dragged through the mud and see other teams use it as an advantage before telling everyone to do it. Those stories about minor league life are terrible and MLB should be ashamed for how they’ve treated minor leaguers… just because they were treated this way in {pick a year} doesn’t mean it’s ok now.
Keith Law: Yep. It’s a good step. Still too little and way too late. Call your Congresspeople if you care. The hashtags and wristbands are cute and all, but they aren’t going to create real change.
Keith Law: You know what got the housing policy changed? News stories about players sleeping in cars and the like.

Clayton K: Most healthy water for you?
Keith Law: I shoot for a hydrogen to oxygen ratio of 2:1. I try to avoid heavy water, though. It doesn’t deu any good.

Jon: What are your thoughts on the Eagles this season?
Keith Law: We’re not that good. But maybe it’s a development year for Hurts?
Keith Law: Sucked to see Zach Ertz go, though.

Tom: The long nightmare of the Albert Pujols contract is finally over, however, the Angels weren’t close at all to making the playoffs, and they still have Upton’s money pit deal (he’s secretly been as bad as Pujols the past few years). What do they do this off-season? I guess try to address pitching as best they can?
Keith Law: That’s what I would do. Plow it into starting pitching.

Joe: High school teacher here – will the pledge of allegiance ever go away in schools? We still have it on the announcements every day but almost no one stands or recongnizes it anymore. Can we just let this thing go or would we hate America too much if we did that?
Keith Law: Eventually. It’s an absurd exercise in performative patriotism.
Keith Law: I’m glad to hear kids don’t stand for it. You don’t have to pledge allegiance to our government, let alone a piece of cloth.

Danny: You said before the season that if scouts thought Austin Wells had even a 20% chance of catching, he’d be a top 100 prospect. Have those odds of catching changed after his first pro season?
Keith Law: Nope.

Marani: From afar, I always got the impression that Aaron Boone was neither part of the problem nor part of the solution for the Yankees, but Yankees fans seem to be near unanimous in their disappointment that he’ll be back next year.  How would you evaluate his managerial skills?
Keith Law: I would agree with you – he’s certainly not part of the problem.

Deke: Allison Williams leaves ESPN because of the vaccine mandate and goes to the Daily Wire, where Matt Walsh said “Yes, I said that I don’t like female analysts and reporters in football. No, I don’t care if that upsets you. No, I don’t apologize. Yes, I think women are feminizing traditionally male spaces. Yes, I think that’s bad. Yes, I’m right. No, your whining doesn’t change any of this.”

No question, just … damn, what an incredible self-own on all sides.
Keith Law: He’s a fountain of bad takes. Also, as someone who left ESPN, imagine leaving them for that site. That’s a choice, all right.

Graham: I tweeted you about this the other night—the Braves used a defensive replacement in CF Wednesday night that wasn’t Pache. If they aren’t using Pache there, why is he on the roster, and as a follow up, have they totally given up on him?
Keith Law: First question, agreed, second one, I don’t think so at all.

Shane: RIP to the perpetually underrated Peter Scolari
Keith Law: Oh wow. He was indeed underrated. So good on Newhart.

Max: Should the Cardinals be giving Alex Reyes a shot as a starter or just accept that he’s bullpen material and ride him that way?
Keith Law: His delivery & injury history really say “reliever.”

Paul: Not sure I saw him come up on any of your playlists. Have you listened to Bartee Strange?
Paul: and nevermind you did recommend some of his stuff please disregard.
Keith Law: Hah, yep, Mustang was pretty good, looking forward to what he does next.

Paul: Are you familiar with Seiya Suzuki at all? Any comparisons or what to expect?
Keith Law: If he’s posted, I’ll write him up.

Nate: Idk if you saw where the Astros apparently just lost Ehsan Bokhari to the Cubs FO…do you have any thoughts on what the Astros FO is currently like now? Like has Click made any effort to bring his own lieutenants to offset the brain drain, or done anything different to help reshape things from the Luhnow regime? Seems like we’d already had a pretty big exodus of guys to begin with even before that
Keith Law: Known Ehsan for a while, he’s extremely sharp. I think Sarah Gelles has taken over his role, and she’s also very well-regarded, although I don’t know her personally.

Alex: Have you ever thought about doing board game video reviews?
Keith Law: Funny, I have. Hoping to do something along those lines this winter.

Luis Urias: You claimed moving Luis Urias to 2B helped him become a better hitter this year, but who’s to say that he couldn’t have improved this year regardless of his position? I thought correlation doesn’t equal causation?
Keith Law: OK. It was pretty easy to see the change from watching him, but you do you, I guess.

JBisson: Thanks so much for these chats, Keith. Always one of the highlights of my day. Do you think Leody Taveras made enough improvements with the bat to warrant an extended look in the TEX lineup in 2022?
Keith Law: I really hope to see him back in CF for them next year. Way too young to give up on him.

Eric: Will 2022 be another completely lost year (Top 5 pick) for the Orioles?
Keith Law: Hard to see them competing with the pitching currently in the organization & the competition in that division.

SD: Is Abrams playing in the fall league? Have you seen him?
Keith Law: He did not play at all last week. I was told he wasn’t physically ready but I don’t know if that was the broken leg or something else.
Keith Law: I mean, still related to the broken leg. Obviously if he had a broken leg now he wouldn’t play. That would be a bad idea.

Pat D: I know you mentioned doing movies after the season, and I know you’ve brought up the book several times, so any interest in seeing the new “Dune?”
Keith Law: 100%.

Bob: You made a brief comment on Pedro Leon. I know it’s tough when a player doesn’t do much in a live look, but was your negative tone suggestive that others have not seen big tools?
Keith Law: I thought I acknowledged the big tools, just that he looked really bad against a lot of different pitchers last week.

Mike Trout: James McCann isn’t blocking anyone. ETA for Alvarez?
Keith Law: 2023 for Francisco.

Mike: And for heaven’s sake, don’t you be so sad.
Keith Law: Glad someone got it. I was afraid my age was showing.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thank you so much for reading, as always, and for all of your questions. Free agent rankings will be up around November 5th, so keep an eye out for that. And don’t forget my books The Inside Game and Smart Baseball as you do your holiday shopping! Stay safe, everyone.

You can see my playoff picks and a one-paragraph explanation here (for subscribers to the Athletic).

Keith Law: Klawchat. Because you have to make this life livable.

addoeh: I see Dayton Moore’s son is projected to be a draftee in 2022.  From the outside, there could be a conflict of interest if he knows where other teams view his son and where they may draft and offer him.  This probably isn’t the first time this has happened, but do you see a potential issue?
Keith Law: Happens every year. IMO, the best move would be for the Royals’ owner to say you can’t draft your own kid, and move on. The information imbalance you mention is, I think, unavoidable.

Noah: I’ve written to you about this before, but it still gets under my skin when I see Sandy Alderson make a move (like letting Rojas go).  While I know the next GM or President will pick their own guy, I just would rather the Mets hire that next FO guy than have to read about Sandy Alderson doing anything other than retiring after his involvement in turning a blind eye to sexual harassment in previous hires.  Why won’t the Mets announce Alderson’s firing or retirement?  It’s a stain on an already stained organization.  Thanks for doing these, Keith!
Keith Law: I have no idea. Whatever you think of Alderson’s legacy, his tenure with the Mets has been disastrous, and he shouldn’t involved in this hiring process. You didn’t mention the conflict of interest he faces with his son in the FO as well. Will he hire someone who has no real plans to use his son or retain him beyond the contract they just gave him in July (which was itself suspect, as that’s a decision the new GM should be allowed to make, not HIS OWN FATHER).

Matt: Can you please explain to all the Yankee fans out there that it does no good to fire Aaron Boone unless there is a plan to replace him. It’s why the Yankees ended up with Aaron Boone in the 1st place.
Brian: Hey Klaw, thanks for hosting this chat. Highlight of my week. Inevitable Yanks question from an impatient fan – how do they move forward? Fire the coaching staff? The GM? Nobody? How do they get over the hump?
Keith Law: These both seem like the same sort of question. I don’t think Boone is the problem here. The team just had a great season with a rotation that was often cobbled together, and they lost the WC game primarily because their ace has been dealing with a hamstring injury the last few weeks and wasn’t able to give them a quality start. That doesn’t call for wholesale changes. Go sign Correa and a starter.

Dark Knight: Who do you think is better offensively:  Wander Franco or Bo Bichette?  Big debate from a circle of loyal followers.  Thanks Keith!!
Keith Law: This is a debate?

Barry: It seems like there are lots of Kickstartes for board games, even when the games are published by for profit game manufactures. Is there a reason why?
Keith Law: Aha! I know the answer to this. One is marketing – Kickstarters build a big buzz for upcoming titles. And the bigger reason is that it guarantees a sales figure for the first printing – you aren’t printing 10,000 copies and hoping you sell them but with no idea if you’ll sell out or only move 2500. It’s not the original purpose of crowdsourcing, but I think it ensures the financial health of publishers because they aren’t putting big piles of cash at risk and sometimes ending up with a warehouse full of unsold games.

Mo: Do the Cardinals need to look into the SS market this off-season given DeJong’s been pretty rough for 2+ years now?
Keith Law: I like Sosa. I think I’ve always kept him reasonably high on my Cards rankings and he finally justified that this year. Would like to see him get a full shot at the job.

Daniel: Keith, outside of Stearns/Beane… would you mind giving us a few names that you think would be good hires as president of baseball operations by the Mets? Who are you high on to run a franchise? Thanks in advance.
Keith Law: So I heard last week secondhand that those guys and Theo had already turned the Mets down … then the report of a Theo conversation that happened this week came out, so maybe what I heard was wrong, but also, I can’t imagine either guy taking that job. It would be great if the Mets didn’t just recycle the same names all over again.
Keith Law: I know several people within MLB who are rooting for Bobby Heck to get the GM job there, and he’d make a lot of sense as a respected exec who comes from one of the best-run orgs (Tampa Bay) and can bring that knowledge as well as his experience managing a staff (he was scouting director for Houston when they took George Springer).

ATR: Do you anticipate Torkelson and Greene to be in Detroit’s opening day lineup? Thanks!
Keith Law: No, just because of service time stuff. So few teams do that.

Jason: is it unfair that a team can withstand the loss of Bauer and Kershaw and still be a WS favorite? Seems unfair to me. Any other team this wouldve been a death blow. Thats what like 70 million bucks in pitching?
Keith Law: Define “unfair.”
Keith Law: I mean, should they sign Harrison Bergeron instead?

Chris: Is there any optimism for Rockies fans with Bill Schmidt?
Keith Law: Derek and I discussed this on the pod we just recorded for tomorrow (The Athletic Baseball Show), and the answer is … maybe. It really depends on what he does next, and especially who he hires.

A Salty Scientist: So has Logan Webb really leveled up on command and the change to become a legit #2? Nothing in the expected stats screams fluke to me, but curious if you’ve seen anything notable.
Keith Law: I think this is his peak, in the sense that he executed his pitching plan about as well as he possibly could this year. I don’t want to say it’s luck, because that seems to discredit him, but more that everything went right for him. If he’s a 60% groundball guy who can really limit hard contact like he did this year, he can be an above-average starter for a while. But I would bet the under on 2022 because of the above – everything seems to have hit at the 90th percentile.

Anthony: I know minors stats shouldn’t always be used for prospect evaluation but I’ve read stuff on  Julio Rodriguez’s hit tool being closer to a 50 than a 60 based on his long swing. Given his career minors BA is well over .300 why isn’t his hit tool given more praise?
Keith Law: Because batting average is really not a great measure of hit tool, especially not when you’re facing a lot of bad pitching in the minors (and some good, too, he’s not only able to hit the bad ones).

Seth: MLB is missing a golden opportunity with the Giants Dodgers series starting so late on the east coast.  This is the series all baseball fans have wanted to see this year for so many reasons.  If this was Yankees Red Sox it would be in prime time on the east coast without question.  Seems like there has to be a way to get these games on earlier so they dont end at 1:30am EST.
Keith Law: If you start the games earlier then the west coast fans – which, I would assume, includes most of the Giants’ and Dodgers’ current fan bases – miss the beginnings of the games, and that’s worse.

Philly Phantasmic: How much playing time will the Royals give Melendez and at what positions?
Keith Law: He’s a catcher. They have to use him as a catcher, and yes, I’m aware of the catcher they already have, but that guy isn’t going to hit 48 homers again, and catchers, especially ones who’ve caught as much as he has, are not great bets to age well into their 30s.
Keith Law: OTOH if the Royals just want to keep Salvy as the everyday guy, I imagine they could get a king’s ransom for MJM.

Jason: Did everyone who worked in the Trump White House just keep saying to themselves “Think of the book deal, think of the book deal…”
Keith Law: Well, they were clearly just thinking about themselves, so this fits.

AES: Aside from a long history of normalizing racism, why hasn’t there been a bigger outcry about Mcdonough’s comment about Zaidi?
Keith Law: It was showing up on Twitter’s “trending” sidebar for me all night, but there should be some kind of reaction from his employers. It was inappropriate.

Mcf1417: Michael Harris had a rough end to the year. What’s your thought on him going forward?
Keith Law: Harris in the Atlanta system? He didn’t have a rough end to the year at all. You can see my notes on him from when they came through Wilmington.

Chris Mitchell: Should the playoff format be changed to reseed the teams after the WC games without regard to division winners? If this were done in the NL, it would be Giants-Braves and Dodgers-Brewers in the NLDS with a possible matchup of baseball’s best teams in the NLCS. A playoff format that results in the teams with the two best records in the sport meeting in round 1 needs changing.
Keith Law: No. No format will be ‘perfect’ and trying to tinker with it to achieve a desired result in year N will probably yield an undesirable result in year N+1, and then we’ll hear a bunch of ideas to tweak it further.

J. Brenner: Any surprising omissions from AFL rosters? Personally, I expected to see Corbin Carroll show up.
Keith Law: Not surprised after his surgery. I was hopeful, but not optimistic. That said I am so fucking happy to see how many good prospects will be there, and that they’re having the AFL at all, that I’ll take whatever i can get out of the trip. (By which I mean a trip to Changing Hands and very tough decisions on where to eat between games.)

Matt: Was a little surprised that Joey Wiemer didn’t get a mention in your prospects of the year column. Age? Position? Don’t believe in the swing? Something else?
Keith Law: Older guy in single A, and also, I can’t mention every single player who had a good year.

Famous Twitter User @Whitey_83: Any insight into how the Ozuna saga might play out in Atlanta? I would very much like to never see him again, but I have serious fears about the org either bringing him back (when/if it is allowed to do so) or crying poor because of his contract for the next three years.
Keith Law: I truly don’t know, although I share your wish and your fears. I could see Liberty demanding that he play as long as they’re paying him.

SD: I know it’s hard to evaluate managers because there is so much we can’t see. From what we could see I thought Tingler was pretty good. Do you have thoughts you could share?
Keith Law: From what we could see, I agree. There are a lot of reports of the players not wanting to play for him, and while you don’t necessarily want to let the lunatics run the asylum – or to blame the manager for their own play – if the manager has lost the clubhouse, that’s a reason to move on. I think Tingler will be a great manager if he’s given a second opportunity, a la AJ Hinch and Terry Francona.

John: Hey Klaw, how rare is it for 2 prospects in the same system to essentially come back from being almost written off like Pratto and MJ? Is what they are doing sustainable?
Keith Law: Both are for real. In their cases I believe there’s a common cause – the Royals changed how they were working with several of their hitters, and they had all of 2020 to do so with these guys. I don’t ever want to see another lost minor league season, but it turns out a few players might be substantially better off from a year of instruction without games, or just from the year of rest.

Dave: Do the Mariners seem ripe for regression? Seems like they could be better next year but have a worse record with how much they outperformed their pythag
Keith Law: Yes. Future is bright, 2022 may feel disappointing.

Ethan: Keith, what are your thoughts on this Padres season?  What should be the priorities this offseason?  And what should be their profile as they look for a new manager?  Thanks as always for your good work!
Keith Law: Darvish and Snell both had 4+ ERAs, in that ballpark, and pitched a lot less than I would have expected. It all starts there, doesn’t it? If you knew going into the year that both of those guys would be average-at-best, would you pick them to make the playoffs? I wouldn’t have – I thought their rotation would be a major strength, bolstered in the second half by Gore (now going to the AFL!) and maybe the arrival of a more developed Weathers (who was pushed into making 18 starts that I’m sure were not part of the plan). Whose fault is that? The manager? The GM? Or just rotten luck?

Guest: Anything to read into Daniel Lynch’s struggles with command / control this season? Young guy figuring it out or does it dampen your enthusiasm?
Keith Law: Young guy figuring it out. They’re not all good right away. Some guys take a year or more.

Robert Axelrod: What due diligence did MLB pay to Cohen’s “dark money” past and its role in our political mess? Not to mention his grey dealings in the investment world.
Keith Law: The Kendricks are established MLB owners and their dark money habits are well known. MLB doesn’t care.

Tony: Do you think Mike Elias should spend some money this winter to not be embarrassingly bad again? And do you think he’ll do that?
Keith Law: I’d think ownership would want to do so. You have the game’s #1 prospect on the cusp of the majors. Do you want to field a 60-win team around him?

Ciscoskid: What is this Giants team in 2022 regardless of the this postseason results. A lot of cap flexibility but also a lot of holes to plug again.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t bet on a lineup with key players this old repeating the way they did, but I also think they’ll be more active this winter knowing that they are clear contenders going into the year.
Keith Law: That’s all assuming the CBA stuff gets settled. who knows what happens there.

Henry: Dave Roberts did an excellent job managing the Scherzer/bullpen yesterday, and Mike Shildt managed it like a regular season game. He’s lucky Wainwright wasn’t worse but he kept him in too late. It still befuddles me why managers make stupid decisions.
Keith Law: I was a little surprised to see Scherzer start an inning and come out with 2 men on … I’m not saying it was wrong but it felt more ad hoc than it needed to be. Shildt got very lucky on Wainwright. If Turner doesn’t chase a pitch he seldom chases, the Dodgers might put 2-3 on the board in the 4th (?) inning and change the whole course of the game.
Keith Law: Good pitch by Wainwright, of course. Just surprised Turner offered at it.

Neil: As a Jays fan this weekend hurt, but the last month was awesome.  I see tons of people pushing for expanded playoffs, but I really think that would devalue September, which can be so much fun.  Im guessing expansion of playoffs is inevitable, any way MLB avoids it?
Keith Law: No, there’s too much money in it for MLB. They will always take the option that increases their revenues in the short term regardless of any deleterious long-term consequences. Always.

Snarfle: Do you see a viable compromise on the whole service time thing? Start the clock when the player is drafted?
Keith Law: Can’t see that taking. I like the idea of at least connecting free agency to the player’s age at debut, or when drafted, to recognize that players who go to college are at a relative disadvantage (since they likely won’t see free agency until at least 29, versus ~27 for the best HS draftees and international FAs).

Luke: Will the 2022 MLB season start on time or are we looking at a work stoppage?
Keith Law: I believe there will be a deal, we won’t lose all or even half of the 2022 season, but the hot stove will be delayed and maybe even spring training will too.

Pete: Hey Keith, I was really excited to see Gabriel Moreno so high up on your rankings in the middle of the year. What’s his ceiling stat line? Is it higher than someone like Francisco Alvarez? Or was he ranked higher because he’s so close to being ready for the majors?
Keith Law: Moreno is closer to ready but as hitters they’re quite different – they will both probably be stars, but get there in different ways.

Josh: Were you a fan of the Dune novel or the David Lynch movie?
Keith Law: Loved the first novel. Never saw the Lynch movie. The sequel novels get increasingly ridiculous and I wouldn’t recommend anyone read past the first.

Jason Bersani: should I stay in on Corbin Martin, for sim/DMB purposes? I bought when shortly after the draft Calls thought there was a chance he trend into the best arm of the class.
Keith Law: He made my top 100 then too. Hold.

Kevin: Why would ESPN have Arod call the wild card game on Tuesday? He was incredibly biased the entire game, not to mention he isn’t good.
Keith Law: But he’s famous. Between him not really knowing the players or how most teams think about players & roster construction, and Vasgersian shouting the extremely cringey “What up Holmes” when Clay Holmes pitched, it was a pretty lousy experience. (And no, I don’t get ESPN2, haven’t since I left the company.)

Deke: The Jessica Berg Wilson death — obviously the vaccines are good and necessary and the mandates help, but when someone (not a bad-faith actor, someone genuine) holds that up to you, what do you say in response? How do you address their concerns in that regard? “It’s vanishingly rare” just isn’t going to sway those people.
Keith Law: It’s a terrible tragedy, but that’s the 4th death in 15 million doses of the J&J shot administered (and, I think, the second since the pause, after which the medical community was supposed to be more aware of the signs to watch for). The odds are minuscule, and it’s possible she didn’t get the proper care for a known if very rare side effect. On the other hand, we’re at 700,000 deaths from COVID-19. More people die of the virus every 10 minutes than have died from this blood clotting disorder.

Noah: I’m getting my booster next week (immunocompromised) and I have a hard time sussing out why there is debate in the medical community about whether or not boosters are necessary.  It seems like there is waning efficacy, but a lot FDA/CDC folks are still saying we need to get the unvaxxed vaccinated and well…that doesn’t seem likely to happen until mandates are more broadly used.  So, shouldn’t we be promoting those who want boosters to get them?
Keith Law: STAT had a good piece on this. The connection between science and policy, while certainly better than it was under the circus, has not been great under Biden.

Snowy: Elly De La Cruz got a lot of buzz this year, is he a possible top 100 guy next year?
Keith Law: He has top 20 overall tools but his approach is really not very good at all. It’s a bunch of 7s on the scouting report, though.

Jason: Does this week just prove Facebook has too much power and influence over our lives and needs to be regulated?
Keith Law: I don’t love that phrasing. I prefer to say that if Facebook can’t police itself – or won’t – then they should be prepared to face the consequences of their own actions. Don’t take down anti-vaccine content? Fine. Help pay for the costs that unvaccinated people impose on our economy.

Matty: What do you make of Bellinger’s season?  Is this an anomaly, a result of the shoulder injury, or are there long-term concerns with his hit tool?
Keith Law: I assume he was hurt.

Ben: Would you consider Witt to be the MiLB POY? If not him, who?
Keith Law: I wrote a whole column about it.

Chris Mitchell: Did you have similar thoughts about Kapler the second time around – seems like he’s learned a lot from the PHL experience.
Keith Law: Yes, and also he was allowed to hire more of his own people. Always thought he got a raw deal in Philly, and subsequent events proved he wasn’t the problem. The roster was.

Matt: I’ve never been a doom and gloom guy over MLB popularity, but a game that’s 1-1 in the 9th and over the four hour mark is insane, right?
Keith Law: Great game. I was hurting this morning from staying up for it.

Santos: Am I just an old man yelling at clouds or is MLB creeping towards an aesthetic problem? I know advertisements have been there forever – I have no problem with them around the ballpark and on the broadcasts (though I’m not fond of how many are behind home plate now), but they put the Nike swoosh on the jerseys and that was a small change….now they have the FTX logo on the umpires’ shirts…they have betting kiosks and advertisements in stadiums…I’m not a luddite but I just can’t get behind this. I don’t mind european sports (I’m a cricket fan) but their uniforms are awful. You can’t tell what the team name is or the player unelss you wade through a stack of other companies first. Am I overreacting?
Keith Law: Oh, just wait till your screen is crowded on three sides with interactive betting tools. It’s coming.

David: Any interest in the Dune movie?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

Bill: Just FYI. People do read your completely dishonest political takes and other dishonest takes and realize that dishonesty is likely to show up in your other work
Keith Law: And yet, here you are. Really appreciate you looking out for me, though.

Henry: Nice Strangelove DM reference.
Keith Law: I give in to sin.

section 34: I’m a lifelong baseball fan but increasingly I find the game boring: too much take-and-rake, too little action. Do you feel this way too? For an analyst there’s still plenty to analyze, but do you find the game less interesting to analyze now that the Three True Outcomes make up such a high percentage of plate appearances?
Keith Law: I miss basestealing and more balls hit into play (and not finding fielders). I don’t want to see the league ban the shift, though. Deadening the baseball even a little bit would go a long way. So would raising the bottom of the strike one (although, TBH, I haven’t seen data on whether that happened this year).

James: With the huge incoming growth of sports gambling, have you ever read The Fix by Declan Hill about matchfixing in soccer? Any concerns about seeing that happen in MLB (or the minors in particular where players and umps aren’t paid well)?
Keith Law: That is inevitable. We will have a scandal around betting in baseball. I feel like we’ve already had a few, actually.

Dark Knight: what are your thoughts on Drew Rasmussen and Ranger Suarez?  Drew for example pitched well against TOR 3 x, BOS 2x and even against PHI.  Do you think they’re for real?
Keith Law: Rasmussen is a two-time TJ guy who was worked extremely hard at Oregon State. I’d really be surprised if he stayed healthy as a starter despite all of that – he’d be a big outlier, at least. I like Suarez as a back-end starter.

Joshua: Is there still hope for Victor Robles? Would he be best that he start fresh somewhere else? Thanks.
Keith Law: Has to start hitting the ball harder.

Alex In Austin: I missed how Shane Baz is postseason eligible.  What happened to the rule of being on the roster on Sept 1st or did he arrive in the IL loophole?
Keith Law: That rule has been a laughingstock for a few decades now. If you’re in the organization on 9/1 you can be on the postseason roster.

Dan: Pedro Leon seemed to start putting it together after a tough start, all while learning a new position. Do you think he can be a star?
Keith Law: I think so but he’s near the top of my list of guys to see in the AFL.

Wayne: Is Votto a Hall of Famer in your opinion?
Keith Law: Yes.

Scott: You seem like a guy who likes good smart pop tunes, you should give The Beaches a listen if you havent already. I think they would be up your alley, punky yet very catchy.
Keith Law: I’ll check out their new EP. I can’t remember if I listened to Talk Show when it came out – too many indie bands with Beach in their name (Beach House, Beach Fossils, Beach Slang).

Dave: I would to see either Jamey Stegmaier or Elizabeth Hargraves on the podcast to talk about Wingspan and board game design. Would be fascinating.
Keith Law: Great idea. I’ll get on that.

Dave: Did anyone see this kind of season coming from Cedric Mullins?
Keith Law: I know some Orioles scouts who thought he could be a good regular but thought he was underappreciated in the org (and especially by Showalter). I don’t know if any of them would have expected (waves hands around) this.

Arturo (Mexico): I think Soto was better this season than Harper, but it seems to me than Harper was more relevant to the Phillies winning than Soto (for example many hits that were decisive in victories in an order at bat with little contributions from his teammates). Would it be a good argument in favor of Harper’s candidacy to MVP?
Keith Law: Sure, especially with the two fairly close, although I only use that as a final arbiter when I can’t decide otherwise.

Matt: Political takes are dishonest? Funny, I thought they were opinions.
Keith Law: He just means he doesn’t like them.

Dana: Any idea what happened to Gleyber Torres the past two seasons?
Keith Law: Not really. I think he’s a buy-low candidate for someone. But I also know that I don’t know what happened.

Dark Knight: Will Michael Kopech be a starter for the Chisox next year?  How good do you think he’ll be?
Keith Law: If he starts, he’ll be really good. Might take a year or two. But he’ll be really good.

Guest: If you’re the Yankees, you sign Correa, and then what with Peraza and Volpe? Trade Peraza when he’s ML ready and trade Gleyber if Volpe turns out to be the star he looked like this year?
Keith Law: Volpe can play SS, but I’m okay with signing Correa and then either moving Volpe to 2b when he’s ready OR moving Correa to third. Peraza isn’t good enough to merit changing the plans around those two guys.

Mac: Trey Sweeney will be in the Yankees SS mix too.
Keith Law: I don’t know any scouts who think he stays at shortstop.

Margarita: Hi Keith, how did you manage to invite Lauren Mayberry to your podcast? How did it happen? Probably an interesting story.
Keith Law: Just used my network. I was thrilled to get her and she was an amazing guest, too.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. No chat next week as I’ll be out at Fall League, but I’ll write up what I see there. Hope to see a few of you at the games as well! Stay safe and thank you as always for reading.

Starting at 1 pm ET. My 2021 Prospect of the Year column is now up for subscribers to the Athletic, and my ranking of the ten best out-of-print board games is up at Paste.

Keith Law: It’s that time of year again – I can taste the air. Klawchat.

Steve: Please rank eventual ceiling of Rays’ pitchers  McClanahan, Baz, and Patino. Thanks.
Keith Law: One of those guys was top 5 on my midseason prospect ranking. He’s the clear answer. I also think McClanahan is limited to a five-and-dive starter – if he stays healthy – because he’s always going to have some trouble with right-handers.

Deke: I’ve noticed you appear to be fairly adamant about not ending a sentence with a preposition, sometimes (IMO) to the detriment of the sentence’s flow. It’s a rule that was taken from Latin and has no actual application in English — essentially a fake rule forced into a rule it doesn’t belong. I am basically 100% sure that you know this, so I’m curious — do you do it because you think the rule SHOULD apply, or just to avoid annoying pedants yelling at you and having to go through the conversation?
Keith Law: I write the way that sounds right in my head. Prepositions take objects, so a preposition should come before an object if possible. The terminal preposition just sounds wrong to me. The Latin thing is a myth though.

David: Do you have any thoughts on how Preller has kept this job so long? He’s certainly acquired considerable minor league talent, but the organization has shown a remarkably poor ability to assess talent at or near the major-league level during his tenure (Myers’ extension and the signing of Hosmer being perhaps the most egregious examples, but certainly not the only ones), and none of the managers he’s chosen have worked out very well. I can’t help thinking that it’s time for ownership to clean house and hire someone with a different approach (Jason McLeod?).
Keith Law: I wonder if Hosmer was him or ownership. It’s diametrically opposed to anything else he’s done as GM. As you said, they have acquired an absurd amount of talent, through all channels, and I don’t think one year of some horrible injury luck should outweigh that. The fire Preller camp is extremely reactionary.

Michael: Hi Keith – Any thoughts on the NL MVP race?  I know Tatis and Soto have had great years, but watching Harper the last few weeks has been a revelation. I am shocked when opposing managers pitch to him he is so locked in. Thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: If I had a ballot – I don’t, of course, because the powers that be don’t want me to vote – I’d have Harper on top. Tatis is the best player in baseball, but he’s missed 25+ games, and that’s a factor in the MVP award.

Guest: Would love to see Sam Bachman get some work in the AZFL. He hasn’t pitched since Sept. 1st after COVID protocols in High-A, and then again after his promotion to AA. With only 14IP in pro ball would you send him to AZ or sit him down knowing he’s been throwing on and off since Feb.?
Keith Law: I’d love to see him, but since he had a shoulder scare in the spring, resting him is probably the better option. Start fresh next year with a single plan for the entire season.

Devon: What’s your outlook on William Contreras? I think he’s actually looked really good at the plate (given his age and big defensive responsibilities) but Braves fans have been frustrated by his defense. Do you think he just needs more reps behind the plate or is a move off the position necessary to keep the bat in the lineup?
Keith Law: I have never thought before that his defense was a problem –  if you read my pre-season capsule on him, you can see I was pretty positive about it – and I also think judging a catcher in his first year in the majors is probably unfair.

Mike: Keith, I know we can’t scout the stat line, but it seems Mark Vientos had a great year. I read his defense is not great though. What are your thoughts on him?
Keith Law: He can hit, and the power is legit. I had him as a fringy defender before the season and it sounds like that’s about right … maybe even a tick worse. But they already have more first basemen than they can use, so I wouldn’t try to move him just yet.

Trevor: You’ve touted the Mets and their home grown talent, yet no playoff appearances amongst the group since 2016. Failure fall on the players, the front office, or other?
Keith Law: You kind of skipped over the part where they hired a completely unqualified person to be GM (when they could have hired Chaim Bloom) and let him trade away their top prospect for nowhere near enough in return.

Troy: What is the Tigers Ryan Kreidler ceiling?
Keith Law: I saw him this summer – I think he’s an extra guy.

Mac: Are you feeling better about Jarred Kelenic’s long term future?
Keith Law: Yes. I was never actually worried about him – the gap between the minors and the majors right now appears to be the biggest it’s ever been. A lot of good prospects are going to struggle right out of the chute.

Mike: Keith, you are named POBO of the Mets. What do you do with Stroman, Conforto & Syndergaard? Who do you sign/ offer QO?
Keith Law: I’d offer all three. Take the picks if they leave. And I’d have interest in bringing all three guys back, too – the first two on long-term deals, Thor maybe a make-good one since he’ll be working his way back into next year.

Tim: Should the winner of the NL West with the best record in baseball have the choice of who they want to play vs. mandating they play the wildcard winner in the Division Series?  This year more than ever it would seem the Brewers are going to have the advantage of facing a much weaker team regardless of who wins the east and who wins the wildcard game.
Keith Law: Nah, the system is what it is. I have issues with the playoff structure but the #1 seed facing the second-weakest team rather than the weakest team isn’t one of them.

Mike: Klaw, I read some executives say Cohen’s tweets will scare some people away from the Mets. Do you believe this? Big market team/wealthy owner (still feels good to say that), why wouldn’t anyone want the job, especially for top $$$.
Keith Law: I think it’s complete bullshit. And so are these candidate lists that recycle the same white men who’ve had that job before. I saw one “list” that included a guy who clearly failed in previous stops as a GM. Why would the Mets do that? There are plenty of good candidates out there, some of whom haven’t had the opportunity yet, some of whom aren’t – gasp – the same white men who’ve already had that chance!

Billy: Will you be chatting every week again come this off-season?  These are the highlight of the internet each week.
Keith Law: I appreciate that, but it’ll really depend on what else I have going on.

Trevor: Kevin Maitan was said to be the greatest international signee since Miguel Sano. What did the scouts miss about his profile?
Keith Law: I don’t believe I ever said that – he was hyped up at age 14 but he was already very physically developed for the age, and at 16/17 he made it clear that those evaluations were in error. He wasn’t that good of a hitter and his body had gone the wrong way.

John: Your thoughts on Austin Martin?  Where does he help the Twins ? CF?   Next year?
Keith Law: I’d refer you back to my writeup of the trade – I think that all holds true. We’ll see how he looks in March after the Twins have had a chance to work with him on his swing, and once he’s farther removed from the wrist injury/

John: Why do you folks think Trump is still presidential material?  Amazing how much loyalty he attracts even with his craziness.
Keith Law: He exploits his adherents, still they love him.

Luca: Keibert Ruiz and Joe Ryan…yay or nay?
Keith Law: They’re both prospects, yes. Ruiz was on my top 50 (see above).

Friar Fan: Meulens, Alomar Jr, Alou, Boch? Have a prediction for a new manager in SD if Ting goes?
Keith Law: If Preller is picking, it’s more likely someone he knows from the Texas system. Those sound like names that reporters throw around.

Chris: If you had to pick one long term, Kelenic or Julio?
Keith Law: Kelenic. Middle of the diamond player.

Kevin: Is the complete game going away ? How would you run a pitching staff?
Keith Law: Oh it’s gone. CGs are oddities now.

Zac: When Chris Illitch took over, the public opinion is he was in to make money and he won’t spend money to win. Do Tigers fans have the right to be angry if he doesn’t sign one of the premium shortstops this off-season?
Keith Law: I hate that mindset – sign one of these players, or you suck.

Alex In Austin: I found Wingspan to be a bit too solo and lacking interaction.  Is it just me?
Keith Law: It does lack much interaction. I don’t think that’s a flaw; it’s a matter of taste.

Scherzers_Blue_Eye: What do you make of Josiah Gray? Very up and down rookie year–a couple of really good starts, a couple of stinkers.
Keith Law: I think there’s a lot of learning how best to use the stuff he has there. He has the stuff to be a legit above-average starter. He has to use it more effectively – location, command, pitching plan.

CHOP: Indigo Diaz? What are the reports you have heard?
Keith Law: He’s a one-inning reliever. He could be very good in that role in the majors, but the attrition rate of pure relief prospects is really high.

Robert: Arte Moreno, worst owner in baseball? The sheer number of terrible stories coming out of Anaheim, from the Skaggs tragedy and lawsuit to the minor league treatment, that don’t even approach the problems within the lines is nothing short of embarrassing.
Keith Law: Don’t forget his open support of Trump!

Mac: Is the elimination of short season the only reason so many teams had so aggressive assignments this year?
Keith Law: It is *a* reason. I don’t think it’s the only one. I think it’s hurting the lowest tier of players, though.

Hunter: Thoughts on our current administrations performance. Afgan, border, covid, oil, Hunters laptop cover up, seem to not be going so well. Haven’t seen any criticism from you yet.
Keith Law: Your mistake was the “Hunters laptop cover up” part. You are actually looking for r/thedonald.

Bill: Thoughts on Mountcastle’s season?
Keith Law: Kind of what I expected. Not sure where they’re going to play him long term.

Ben: Hi, Keith. Heard on your podcast that you came to Taiwan to meet with two former players in Keng Buo Hsuen and Cheng Chi Hong,. As a scout, what are some of the biggest challenges when scouting players outside the U.S.?
Keith Law: I’m not sure I’m the best person to answer that, since I haven’t really covered the international market. I can say that the way Taiwanese amateur pitchers are used – throwing side sessions every day, at least back when we were there – is a pretty big problem if you’re trying to sign guys and keep them healthy.

Will E.: Was Alek Thomas under-scouted out of HS? Looks like him vs Kelenic is now debatable as the top bat in that HS class.
Keith Law: Don’t think so – I had him as a first-round talent, and he was at some major events like the NHSI. Everyone saw him.

Chris: In the 20’ish years you’ve been doing prospect lists, what is the most you’ve seen a player in a year(in person, video)? Perhaps maybe like 25IP and 25 PA for a few players every year?
Keith Law: When Pratto/Melendez were here two years ago I probably saw 40-50 PA from each. I stopped taking notes because they weren’t making adjustments and it was futile waiting for something to improve. It’s all the more remarkable that they’ve done what they’ve done this year.

ProjectBiscuit: Has any player or his parents/close ones ever thanked you for being the high guy on him as a prospect compared to other evaluators? For example, I think Trae Turner’s dad thanked Kiley in person for being higher on him than most evaluators going back to when he and Rodon were teammates.
Keith Law: Yes, quite a few times. It’s a nice feeling when that happens but I don’t know if it would be appropriate to disclose their names.

Ken: Hey Keith, I was the guy on twitter a week or two ago arguing that Dave Parker shouldnt be in the HOF due based on  his career WAR and little value he provided after ’79 (other than ’85).  Broadly, speaking when I discuss WAR with others in terms of HOF, assuming standard 15 year career (ages 23-38) I working working with a model of anything over 70 is auto placement, anything under 60 doesnt get you there, 60 is where the conversation begins and really 68 is the minimal sweet spot thus i call a 4.5 WAR season a HOF worthy season.  Understanding everyone has a different floor for the HOF, am I off in my thinking using this as a loose but reasonable guideline for 15ish year careers?
Keith Law: I would say that’s a good starting point, but you always want to consider the context of a player’s career rather than just creating those hard cut-offs. I can say that, okay, Salvador Perez isn’t even getting to 40 WAR in his career, that’s not a HoFer, but I would take more serious looks at players starting in the 50s in WAR.

Rodney: Do you think it would’ve been in the best interests of player and team for the Reds to call Hunter Greene up to work out of the bullpen in September? Any thoughts on why they didn’t?
Keith Law: He missed a start with soreness in his AC joint in August. I’m assuming that’s why.

Famous Twitter User @Whitey_83: At this point, should any of the young outfielders in Atlanta’s system figure into the team’s 2022 plans?
Keith Law: I want to be open-minded on Pache, who did show a good bit more patience in AAA this year, but for a team that’s trying to win he might be a risk they can’t take in the short term. So probably not.

JL: No question, just wanted to plug for people to vote in their local elections this November. Here in Kansas, some anti-mask nuts are running for open seats and I imagine that’s happening throughout the rest of the country, too.
Keith Law: Amen.

Luis Robert: I am hitting .355/.393/.559 with a 160 wRC+ and .404 wOBA over my 262 PAs this season. That’s 3.1 fWAR in just 60 games. If I stay healthy next year, am I a top-5 player in baseball?
Keith Law: With a .424 BABIP. So, yes, if your true talent level is a .424 BABIP, you will be a top-5 player in baseball.

Bob: Seems like Adley Rutschman has gotten better at AAA. How long do we have to wait to see him in the big leagues in 2022?
Keith Law: I’d note that pretty much every prospect is hitting for more power in AAA than below. But Rutschman should be their Opening Day catcher.

David: Any update on the Rockies’ GM search? Local media seems resigned to Schmidt keeping the job, with the caveat that he might well be a good candidate in the end.  But having no external candidates seems like a real problem, given how the last few years have gone.
Keith Law: I bet it’s Schmidt. I’d take him over the field at this point.

Chris: How concerned should the Yankees be with Jasson Dominguez strikeout numbers? Is it just his adjustment after a lost season, or something more?
Keith Law: Isn’t he 18? in full-season ball!

JJ: Speaking of MVP voting, isn’t MLB concerned about John Henry owning both the Boston Red Sox and the Boston Globe?  Last season, Julian McWilliams of the Globe voted for two Red Sox on his ballot — including putting Alex Verdugo at 5th — while the team was hideous.  Does MLB just not care that one employee was essentially voting for his coworkers?
Keith Law: The team being hideous is irrelevant. The conflicts of interest are rife – MLB.com writers can vote, because they’re eligible for BBWAA membership now (as they should be), but that means they’re now paid by the league.

Jeff: Where do you come down on the Kiermaier fiasco? I say he did nothing wrong.
Keith Law: I say he did. Sketchy.

HGarcia81: Hey Keith – Hope all is well with you and your family. Is your wife feeling better now?
Keith Law: Still dealing with a lot of residual fatigue, even a month after she was done with the main sickness from COVID-19. I can’t imagine how deluded you must be to think you’d rather risk getting that sick than get a safe, effective vaccine.

MS: Frank Schwindel and Pat Wisdom starting next year?
Keith Law: I would bet against that.

Aaron C.: How does Klaw “watch” baseball? (Not just “with my eyes” lol) Is it background noise while you’re cooking? Are you armed with a list of recent call ups and flipping channels to get another look at players you’ve scouted? Do you watch milb dot tv, instead? Just curious.
Keith Law: MILB.tv is too frustrating to watch … it’s such a poor substitute for being there. I watch more major league games if I’m home, just bouncing game to game to see interesting players.

ChrisP: Gore has made it back up to AA, but are you hearing any update on how his delivery has progressed from the complex?
Keith Law: You’ve probably seen the video – Longenhagen posted some. That’s the delivery now.

FWIW: FWIW, Stroman can’t be QOed
Keith Law: Ah yes, he took a QO last year. Thank you.

MS: When you go to these board game conventions, where do you stand on nerd level 1-5; 5 being super nerd
Keith Law: I mean, we’re all big nerds there, and happy to be so.
Keith Law: I feel pretty socially capable there, though. Like, no one is looking at me like I’m the biggest nerd in the (giant) room. I think.

Kevin w: Overall, have you been happy with this administration?  I personally can quibble with a few things (lack of progress on voting rights being one), but overall been very pleased.
Keith Law: Yes, and yes. I have no idea what this Haitian immigrant decision is about – it seems antithetical to anything the party should stand for, like it’s just a fear of riling up the people who are never voting blue anyway. They’re just not doing enough overall, given the control of the White House and both houses of Congress.

Aaron C.: Should I read anything into Nick Allen slugging .254 at AAA-Las Vegas (in a teeny sample) other than dude might be worn out from crisscrossing the globe to hit a little white ball in 2021?
Keith Law: Very small sample.

Jay: Red Sox vs. Yankees this weekend — if one of those teams misses the playoffs with a $200 million payroll, should their season be viewed as a failure?
Keith Law: Not a fan of that mindset either but it’s endemic. They’re in a really tough division – four teams contending, one of which went to the WS last year, two spending that kind of money, and Toronto a strong playoff team last year with a higher payroll than they’ve had in, what, 15 years? They literally can not all make the playoffs.

Bob: I truly appreciate you baseball coverage, but personally think your a Liberal nut case.
Keith Law: *you’re

Gabe: Spencer Howard. Too early to throw in the towel?
Keith Law: Let’s see him get healthy and get a regular role in Texas. The phillies jerked him around quite a bit, and his shoulder barked a few times this year and back in 2019.

Bill G: Keith, you were high on Detmers in your mid-season update.  He struggled in his MLB games.  Is this SSS, or did you see something that gave you cause for concern.  Does the gap in MLB vs. minor leagues apply to pitchers as well?  Thanks.
Keith Law: I think it applies to everybody.

Dungeon Master: Any idea if CJ Abrams, Corbin Carroll, or Royce Lewis are recovered enough to participate in AZ Fall League?
Keith Law: I don’t know, but I am assuming Lewis won’t be, given the injury. I’d be thrlled to see any of them.

Joe: You recommended a book by N. K. Jemisin to me a while ago. It’s still on my reading list but I picked up The City We Became by the same author and am really enjoying it. Thanks. And when you’re in San Diego if you haven’t already checked out Mysterious Galaxy I recommend it.  Great book store that focuses on fantasy and sci-fi but does have other genres.
Keith Law: Excellent, thank you.

Mac: i.e. Alek Thomas “and he was at some major events like the NHSI. Everyone saw him.” He was bad at that event and many teams killed him. Yet another example of teams giving up on a northern hitter too soon.
Keith Law: I was there. He wasn’t bad at that event. And teams saw him after that too, since it was basically the start of his spring (and near the end of a lot of southern kids’ springs).

Mike: Also, Mets fans want Luis Rojas gone immediately after game 162 but I can’t help but see his resume as someone who is going to be a great manager elsewhere. I’m sure you know Rojas well from the minors, what are your thoughts on him going forward?
Keith Law: He should be on every team’s short list if he’s scapegoated in NY.

Rick: I have a friend from college who won’t stop texting me shit about “Hunter’s laptop” – he’s a doctor and he refuses to get the covid vaccine because of unknown long-term side effects. So, that guy is in good company.
Keith Law: It’s a disease.
Keith Law: Well, COVID-19, and Trumpism.

Matt: A national baseball reporter with an endless fixation on the Orioles rebuild tweeted today that, while the Dbacks are equally as bad, at least they tried and spent $80 million on Bumgarner. How do you feel about the perspective that even if you throw $80 million a way on an aging pitcher, it was worth just because you spent it?
Keith Law: I mean, sure, they did try, and that’s worth praising, but it also hasn’t worked out, and that’s worth acknowledging. I am not going to criticize the Orioles for choosing not to do that. They will have to spend on pitching at some point, but last winter wasn’t the right time and maybe this winter isn’t either.

Daniel: Any thoughts at all on Ryan Garko being hired as the Tigers director of player development? There’s basically no information about him since he retired from playing.
Keith Law: I’m a fan. He coached at Stanford for a year, had an important role with the Angels, very smart guy. Stanford should have hired him to be their head coach, to be honest.

Snoogans: Who are some early candidates for the top 10 songs of the year? Albums?
Keith Law: Little Simz’ Sometimes I Might Be Introvert is my top album of the year. Arlo Parks’ Collapsed in Sunbeams, Mdou Moctar’s Afrique Victime, Gojira’s Fortitude, and Kid Kapichi’s This Time Next Year are up there for me. Top songs besides some of the tracks on those records … Robert Plant/Alison Krauss’ “Can’t Let Go,” Jonah Nilsson’s “Diamond Ring,” Wolf Alice’s “Smile,” CHVRCHES’ “How Not to Drown,” Jungle’s “Truth,” Jorja Smith’s “Addicted,” Royal Blood’s “Typhoons,” and Griff’s “Black Hole” are all contenders.

Lido: Torey Luvollo got an extension yesterday. Good move or bad move?
Keith Law: I was surprised. People who cover that org tend to criticize his in-game management.

Jack: A bit confused by the Alek Thomas questions in this chat – does drafting a toolsy high school hitter in the second round and seeing them have significant prospect success a miss by the industry?  Not exactly Albert Pujols here
Keith Law: Yeah, I’m not really sure either. If I had him ranked in the first round, then it’s not like the industry was unaware of him.
Keith Law: Meaning I take a lot of my cues from scouts/execs – not the other way around.

Guest: Would people in red states not benefit just as much from things like child tax credit and universal pre-K? Are there not households with two working parents? Single parents?! So frustrating.
Keith Law: One of the great tricks of dark money efforts has been convincing people that expensive government policies and programs that would help them directly are somehow bad ideas.
Keith Law: There are real arguments for and against those programs. I support universal pre-K, but I also know it’s going to be expensive, and hard to implement fairly across the country (look at public education from K-12 … don’t pretend kids in majority Black areas are getting the same caliber that kids in majority white areas are). We could have a real debate over the pros and cons. That can’t happen because one side just screams “socialism.”

Pat: 30 years ago today- Nevermind, Badmotorfinger, Blood Sugar Sex Magik,& Low End theory were released. that’s the album that killed hair metal, the best album from one of the biggest bands of the last 35 years, Soundgarden’s breakthrough & a seminal hip hop album. Helluva day!
Keith Law: I mean, I have a hard time putting RHCP in the same tier as the other three … but I’ll allow it.

Larry: Alek Thomas has really been raking this year. Is his ceiling 60 hit, 55 power in center? If so, that’s a legit star, no?
Keith Law: I’m a big fan, obviously, but I do not believe he’ll get to 55 power.

Kevin: Would Rickey Henderson be valued different as a prospect now than when he came up 40 years ago?
Keith Law: If anything he’d be valued more highly.

Daniel: Aaron Ashby: starter or reliever or something in between?
Keith Law: Reliever.

Matt: My brother is a huge Trump supporter. He has a son on disability that would qualify for SSDI. He refuses to get it because he doesn’t “want any help from the Government.” Even though his taxes pay for it and it’s provided.
Keith Law: I feel bad for his son.

JP: I’d add, the dark money efforts you cited convince people that government programs help “those kinds” of people, if you know what I mean
Keith Law: You know who pours a lot of cash into those dark-money efforts? The Kendricks – owners of the Diamondbacks. Read Jane Mayer’s Dark Money for more. Randi Kendrick’s name comes up a few times.

Pat D: Tucker Carlson, Charlie Kirk, or Ben Shapiro: who’s the worst of the worst?
Keith Law: Carlson. With the larger platform comes greater responsibility.

Bob: The racist narrative is getting old.
Keith Law: You know what’s really getting old? The racism.

Larry: Talk to me about expensive programs when the Government isn’t Trillions of dollars in debt
Keith Law: If you can explain the actual import of that debt to me, we can talk.
Keith Law: Also, slash the military budget.

Joe 2: Follow up on Robert, assuming his BABIP isn’t sustainable, what is the ceiling?  30/30 with HR upside and middle of the road OBP with continued near gold glove defense?  Or is there potentially more?
Keith Law: That’s a ceiling. I’d bet on a lower OBP than that.

Matt: I mean we spent $8 Trillion on a BS war for 20 years. Conservatives never complain about that though.
Keith Law: No, and if you start to wonder why, just follow that money.

Pat: RE RHCP- There’s a reason I said “biggest” bands, not “best. 🙂 That said, I had a lot of good times in college listening to BSSM.
Keith Law: Fair point. And that album was huge while I was in college. I don’t think it’s aged as well as the others, though.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks for all of the questions and for reading. Check out that Prospect of the Year post I linked above, and keep an eye out for my Gen Con wrapup today or tomorrow over at Paste. Stay safe and go get vaccinated!

Keith Law: Pain finds me everywhere. Klawchat.

Heather: If you don’t answer my question, I’ll give you a thumbs down.
Keith Law: Dammit, I’m already downvoted before we begin.

Guest: Keith, I am an RN who cannot seem to get through to my family members about the vaccine. What would you suggest is the best way to objectively reason with people who are listening to bad sources, or have we just lost a significant portion of the country to a cult?
Keith Law: It’s some of both, really. I had an argument with an anti-vaxxer recently – in person, of all things, and she wasn’t masked! – who trotted out every dumb anti-vax trope, from microchips to vitamin D to fake side effects. There was no getting through to her. But we are also prone to overweight highly memorable anecdotes, which skews us towards negative ones – if you see a facebook post that claims the vaccine has killed 5000 Americans (they haven’t, and the correct number is probably 0), that’s going to lodge in your mind, and it will take a lot of patient counterarguments to dislodge it. So I’d pick your battles here, find a family member who is hesitant but not refusing, and start slowly with them.

Pat: Glass Tiger? You’ve hit a new low!!
Keith Law: That song has been in my head for three days. I have no idea why.

Guy B: Just curious if you suffered any storm damage in your area of the country?  If so, stay safe.
Keith Law: We did not, but we were fortunate. If you’ve seen images of the Brandywine River overflowing its banks – it reached 22′, which is believed to be a record high – that is less than 4 miles from our house, and multiple roads near us were impassable. We also know someone whose backyard was damaged by the tornado up in Mullica Hill, NJ. We happen to live on slightly higher ground – nothing is THAT high in Delaware – and just far enough from the river here that we did OK. Thank you for asking.

Pj (Jersey City): What is wrong with cody bellinger at the plate? He looks completely lost.
Keith Law: My guess is it’s a lingering effect from the shoulder injury. He’s getting beat on fastballs. You don’t just forget how to hit a fastball.

ben: Hi, I’m the guy who said hello at the setbreak of the Hershey show. How was your Phish experience?
Keith Law: Good! And I’m glad you popped in here, because I have felt bad since then for failing to ask your name. Anyway, the shows were good, and I’m glad we didn’t get “Tweezer” but did get a bunch of the songs I know best from when I was in college. A “YEM” would have been nice, but I’m not complaining. I think I saw you at the second show, which had the encore of Trey solo stuff? That’s not really my cup of tea.

Joe: Nick Yorke’s bat seems to be living up to the Sox expectations. Have you heard any reports on his defense? Ave glove at 2B, below average, but playable or maybe a LF but the bat will probably play?
Keith Law: Heard raves on the bat and maybe 45 defense at second. More than playable as long as he hits like this. Maybe he was just underscouted because of the pandemic – I have still never seen him.

John: Daniel Lynch has been good his second time up. Is this what you expected from your Wilmington looks?
Keith Law: Getting there. I think there’s more improvement ahead of him, especially working more as a 3-4 pitch guy who doesn’t rely too much on the fastball (up to 99, regularly at 97, but plays below that because of lack of life/movement).
Keith Law: The Royals are going to get very interesting very soon. Next year they should have a better rotation, plus Witt, Pratto, maybe MJM.

Bob: How is the business of minor league ball? I’ve been shocked at how sparsely games I’ve attended have been and the crowd shits on MiLB.tv have been similar. Should we be concerned that minor league ball is something that never really comes all the way back?
Keith Law: I’ve noticed the same when I’ve been out at games this year. Nobody is drawing. It’s definitely a concern because that’s their main revenue source – and I don’t want a situation where more MiLB owners feel compelled to sell to MLB.

Bill S.: Keith, (accidentally hit send too soon, I’ll try again).  The Dodgers organization has clearly been successfully through the minors with player development.  However, does their perennial contender status actually hurt them with the final stage of player development – young players in the majors?  
Thinking about Gavin Lux, and to a lesser degree Zack McKinstry this year.  To finish their development young players need to play regularly in the majors.  Yet, the Dodgers divisional race makes it hard for them to roll out players who are not fully baked.  How should they handle Lux, as well as other talented minor leaguers that will eventually come up and need regular time?  Thank you!
Keith Law: It’s a reasonable concern, especially for players who come up at positions where the Dodgers have established regulars – Lux (Seager), Keibert (Smith, plus Cartaya behind). Easier on the pitching side because they can always work in those guys in long relief first. I think the Dodgers are among the top 2-3 organizations for drafting & development, but even they can’t ignore those structural issues and it may mean certain players don’t develop fully unless there’s an injury.

Bob: I think you mentioned some concerns about Michael Harris’ approach earlier in the year. His BB rate has improved some recently, have you heard if he’s made some real improvements there?
Keith Law: It’s not his walk rate – it’s his recognition of offspeed stuff. Be careful not to scout the stat line.

Derek: Has Kevin Made’s second half performance and tools he’s displayed elevated him to the same or near-prospect level of Ed Howard?
Keith Law: I mean, they’ve both been pretty bad. They’re really young & inexperienced for pro ball, so I’m not saying they’re no longer prospects, but I don’t know what you’re seeing here.

JJ: Red Sox failing to sign their high second round pick — is that on Fabian (and his “advisors”)  for way overvaluing himself, or on Chaim Bloom for not having a clear understanding of what it would take to get him to sign before making the selection, thereby wasting the 40th pick in the draft?
Keith Law: That’s 100% on the advisers and the player too. Failure to understand the market, to recognize what a bad year he had, and most of all, to get that it’s a draft – the system sucks for players, but this is the system. He’s going to be a fourth-year junior next year and pretty much has to go top 20 to beat what he would have made from Boston. When you go a whole spring and don’t make adjustments to the way pitchers are getting you out, you’re not a first-rounder.

Deke: So what’s your strategy to avoid feeling despondent about **waves generally at the entire world**? Because my strategies of late are not working.
Keith Law: I’ve avoided reading too much about a lot of the awfulness in the world. Texas turning into a fundamentalist theocracy, which has been coming for years, is beyond depressing, but reading more about that isn’t going to accomplish anything except reminding me of the high cost of low education.

Jackie: It used to be that 300 victories was the benchmark for automatic entry into the HOF for starting pitchers, but no one’s coming close to that number in the foreseeable future.  The 500 HR threshhold went out the door for hitters with Sosa/McGwire/Palmeiro.  Do you think there are any automatic statistical threshholds left?
Keith Law: There might be for some voters, but I don’t think there are any more.

C-Note: Best guess….% chance Bauer pitches in the MLB again?
Keith Law: It sounds like 0%, and I’m fine with that.

Robert: I’ve seen it said that Yoelqui Cespedes has some pitch recognition issues.  Can some of this be attributed to rust (not playing)?  Either way, is this a skill that can develop?
Keith Law: It is a skill that can develop, but it’s rare, and I think this is just what he is right now – a big tools guy without that core skill.

Stevo: I get that MLB pitchers spend all of their time focused on pitching which is why their hitting suffers but why haven’t we seen a pitcher/hitter like Ohtani before?
Keith Law: Ohtani strikes out in a third of his PA. Before the last 2-3 years, the industry would have considered that unacceptable and made him just a pitcher.

Joe Don: Keith, there’s a very loud contingent of Texas fans demanding that the team sign one of the soon-to-be big money free agents, specifically mentioning Trevor Story and Carlos Correa. Given how far the Rangers are from being competitive again, does it make any sense for them to dive head-first into this year’s free-agent pool?
Keith Law: I would say no – not that I’d oppose them doing so, because I don’t think there’s huge downside, but I think they’re a good 2-3 years from contending.

Mitch: Any thoughts on the Wingspan app?
Keith Law: It’s great other than the AI, which I think needs to be stronger. Anything below ‘hard’ is too easy. But it plays great on the iPad and I love how they’ve set up navigation of your tableau.

Josh: I think I remember you saying you wanted to cover Labor negotiations when you joined at the Athletic. That still a plan? I’d like to hear your (balanced) thoughts as this gets messy.
Keith Law: Yes, the pandemic and then some life stuff have all kind of gotten in the way.

Jon V: How does A. Rosario fit in the Guardians long term plan? More reps in CF? Move Ramirez back to 2B and see if he can play 3B?
Keith Law: If they trade Jose Ramirez, which I think is the right move for them at this point, I’d try Rosario at third … but just pick a position and let him hit. He’s finally turning into the guy he was supposed to be and I think it’s no coincidence that it comes 1) outside of Queens and 2) with more consistent playing time.

Guest: I’m 35 and in my lifetime the number of climate disasters has gone from once every 5-10 years to all the time. How can such a large part of the population be so blind to what is right in front of them and greatly impacting their lives?
Keith Law: Two reasons. One is so much of the messaging from the media and one entire political party tells them it’s not real, even though a lot of that is funded by oil & gas. And two is that I think it threatens a lot of folks’ blind faith in a deity who will protect humanity, even from our own mistakes. We’re going to make the planet uninhabitable. I don’t care what God you believe in – nobody is coming to save us from ourselves.

Nick: How concerned are you about Alec Bohm’s season?
Keith Law: Long term, I think he’s still going to be an above-average bat. But you can add him to the pile of Phillies prospects who haven’t developed. The player development changes were overdue. There’s a lot of lost value in players who’ve stalled or regressed after entering that system.

Jason: Austin Riley’s now put together almost an entire great year at the plate. In the past, you were skeptical of him having prolonged success because of his bat speed. And I also thought he couldn’t hit a slider. Is it now time to say we both underestimated him and he’s maybe going to be a borderline all star third baseman going forward?
Keith Law: I think he’s better than that. I’d put the over/under on his WAR next year at 5.5. He is absolutely an all-star.
Keith Law: I have more to come on that topic on Monday. My latest post was supposed to go up today but they’re holding it for next week instead.

Lara: My parents named me after the love theme from “Dr. Zhivago” — no offense to them, but that movie stunk out loud.  Is there a universally praised classic movie that you thought was unwatchable?
Keith Law: I couldn’t finish Unforgiven. I think An American in Paris is a boring plotless mess. I also couldn’t finish Tom Jones despite loving the novel.

David: What chance does CJ Abrams have of being the Padres’ starting shortstop in 2022, with Tatis moved to the outfield permanently?
Keith Law: I feel like that has become much more likely this year, although we do have to see how Abrams comes back from the knee injury.

Romorr: There are a few 2B options for the Orioles.  I’m more hyped for Vavra since he’s a LHB.  Any chance he’s a regular there?
Keith Law: If he’s a regular, that would be the position. I do like him – he’ll get the most out of his tools.

Chipper Jones: Should the Braves organization distance themselves from my crazy statements?
Keith Law: Yes. They should part ways with you, as the Nats did with Bob Boone.

Romorr: Have you noticed the Orioles approach in the minors?  Lots of guys putting up insane walk numbers.
Keith Law: Yes, and I’ve seen some of their prospects – it’s passivity, not selectivity. Maybe it turns into the latter in time, but it’s not the kind of quality AB I’d want to see.

Josh: The Orioles farm seems position player heavy from a birds eye view.  Does the team have any pitchers besides Rodriguez and Hall that can be mid rotation starters?
Keith Law: Maybe there’s someone in the Florida Man League I don’t know about yet, but I would say no, you have the two, and Hall has to get healthy.

Brett: What do you think of Vinnie Pasquantino as a prospect moving forward in the Royals organization?  He is mashing in AA but as an 11th round pick I’m just wondering if he has a big hole or weakness that will be exploited as he moves up further in the org and faces better competition.
Keith Law: Wasn’t he a side character in The Irishman? Does he paint houses? He’s too old even for AA and while his performance is great it’s not that meaningful given his age.

Doreau: The (Devil) Rays have the best record in the AL, yet the last three home games, they’re drawing 8500 a night, and half of them are Red Sox fans.  It’s been almost 30 years; when does MLB pull the plug on the market, and move to San Antonio/Portland/Vegas/Memphis/anywhere where people would show up?
Keith Law: It’s not quite that simple – there’s a lease involved, for one thing, and MLB isn’t letting any team move without a sweetheart stadium deal at the destination.

Guest: Do you think we lose any part of 22 before a collective bargaining agreement is reached ?
Keith Law: If MLB’s most recent offer is any indication of their stance, yes, definitely.

PJ (Jersey City): I read a rumor that the Orioles planned to use underslot money to pay Fabian. Would the Red Sox intentionally take Fabian to throw a wrench in another team’s draft strategy?
Keith Law: No, that would be pretty self-defeating – but they’re also under no obligation to adhere to a deal a player may have struck with another team, either.

Danny: Do you have any early observations/thoughts on Jasson Dominguez’s first season?
Keith Law: He’s exceptionally young for full-season ball. That he’s doing anything at all there is a good sign. But I do think for whatever reason – bad evals, the lost year – he’s not going to race through the minors the way some scouts/execs thought he might.

Chris: why did Deivi roll out of the Gas Station a lemon, and can he be repaired?
Keith Law: They lowered his arm slot. I have NO idea why.

Buck: Garrett Mitchell starting to rise up prospect lists?
Keith Law: No.

Andy: With the current scandal about a non-real football program playing games against high schools, is there any worry that the top high school prospects in baseball will leave their high schools and only do elite teams? I’m reminded of Kelenic who didn’t play high school baseball at all, though most kid’s parents can’t build a baseball complex for them.
Keith Law: That has been rumored for as long as I’ve been in the industry and it still hasn’t happened. In Kelenic’s case, he had a real reason to do so – his HS season was so short that it would have been hard for teams to scout him. You’ll always see a few cold-weather kids just do travel teams, and some will move south (like to IMG). But for most, the path of least resistance is to play for your high school.

Danny: Any notable observations of 2021 draftees in their first couple weeks of games?
Keith Law: That’s all SSS stuff. Just be careful.

Skippy: I asked in spring training and you were still skeptical so I was hoping to see what you think now, is Tyler O’Neill improvement at the plate real? He’s dropped his pull% about 5% while adding it to his center%. Still a high K guy but he’s held it steady at 31% and a 7%BB rate. .343 OBP and Slugging .503, is it real? Or just a talented guy who’s had a good season but still maybe isn’t sustainable longer term?
Keith Law: I’m taking the under on this.

addoeh: Patrick Wisdom is a great story but he strikes out a ton and he’s hit a lot of home runs (25) but not a lot of doubles (8). It just seems like he’ll be the opening day 3B, because the Cubs have a ton of areas to address, but by June that  might look like a mistake. Am I way off base here?
Keith Law: Nope, I would say exactly the same thing.

Leites: Hi Keith!  Thanks for doing these as often as you do.  Any reason for optimism for Bo Naylor’s hit tool?  or Jeter Down’s?
Keith Law: I really think the Guardians erred by bumping Naylor up two levels this year. Still a believer in both players, but they’ve been disappointing nonetheless.

Mac: Termarr Johnson is the best High School hitter since?
Keith Law: Depends on who you ask. One scout told me it’s the best HS hit tool he’s seen in maybe a decade; another said he thinks the way Johnson’s swing works will cause a lot of trouble when he gets to see better pitching.

Sean: Is Casas ready for opening day next year?  I know dalbec has shown some signs of life but it’s hard to see him ever being more than a fringe MLBer.
Keith Law: Dalbec is below replacement level. I don’t get why people keep trying to make him a thing – if he had a few more PA to qualify, he’d have the second-worst K% of any hitter this year. I think Casas is more of a second half callup.

Noah: Also, sorry, this is a second question from me and I don’t want to inundate you with too much, but as a Mets fan I have to ask: shouldn’t job one be to fire Sandy Alderson?  The guy has presided over an organization that has had multiple sexual harassers/abusers, an acting GM with a DUI, and men who have committed domestic violence.  I am really shocked that he has so far skated.
Keith Law: I can’t imagine he is still there by November. Whether he’s fired, resigns, or is just pushed aside, he’s been the one overseeing the mess you described. It’s not even about the team on the field.

Mike: Isn’t it horrific that the worst part of Trump’s “legacy” is his ability to turn SCOTUS into an extension of the Catholic Church that has obliterated the separation of church and state?
Keith Law: Yep. Also, I can’t believe Democrats still don’t get that a huge part of the GOP strategy is to put younger judges on the court so that they hold those seats forever.

Matt: I have a really hard time believing Bauer won’t pitch again. He may be suspended for all of next year and by 2023, I could certainly see some team hoping the public won’t remember what he did and take a chance on him because of the talent. If he was a lesser player, his career would be over, but I have to think some team will think it’s worth whatever PR hit they take.
Keith Law: I don’t think so.
Keith Law: He’s always been a headache. Now he’s a headache who has admitted in court to violent behavior towards women.

Nick: Guessing Greensboro is a pretty good hitters park but So it would it be better for Pirates to move up Nick Gonzalez and Peugero to get a better indication of progress ?
Keith Law: Agreed – and yes, it’s a great hitters park.

Todd Boss: Cade Cavalli now in AAA: based on your scouting reports earlier this seems kind of surprising perhaps?  Or is the promotion evidence of the team making him face guys who can actually hit 100 and force him to work on command?
Keith Law: Yes, I would bet that’s exactly their belief – and I agree with it. He did get hit around in his first AAA outing, and now he gets to make some adjustments.

PJ (Jersey City): Rosario has been good in Cleveland, Gimenez has….not. Is he just a 4A guy at this point? Or is he still too young to give up on?
Keith Law: More than a 4A guy but never that good a prospect for me. Classic case of a team promoting a guy who’d be young for his levels and look good for teams that rely heavily on models that take that into account. But I think he can be a good utility guy or maybe have a long career as a regular SS on teams that don’t have a better option around.

Buck: Aaron Ashby back of rotation type?
Keith Law: Really think he’s a reliever. Delivery and command point there.

Mrs. Webber: “2001” was so pointlessly boring — nothing happens for three excruciating hours.  But I thought Stanley Kubrick was incredibly overrated; he ruined both “The Shining” and “A Clockwork Orange” by straying too far from the books.
Keith Law: I didn’t find 2001 boring, but I also didn’t like how far it strayed from its source book. I still have actually never seen The Shining, though.

Brett: Vinnie Pasquantino is 23 years old in AA FYI
Keith Law: I am aware of that, thank you. He’ll be 24 in a few weeks.

Bort: Do you prefer Frelick over Mitchell?
Keith Law: Frelick has the higher floor, and yes, in this case I would take him over Mitchell.

Max: Is Matt Brash on the verge of surpassing Hancock and Kirby in the Mariners stable of young arms?
Keith Law: No, definitely not. A prospect, yes, but not better than those guys.

Dan: Just scouting the box scores, Bryson Stott has had a really impressive year. Have you heard or seen anything that suggests that his major league outlook has improved?
Keith Law: Actually have heard the opposite from scouts this year.

Mac: Can Andrew Vaughn be anything more than a mistake hitter?
Keith Law: Yes. Isn’t he already more than that?

Danny: Do you think we’ll have more prep pitchers in the 2022 first round because of the purported depth or do you think the industry’s recent aversion pushes a lot of those guys to later rounds?
Keith Law: Most teams don’t want to take that risk; we might see 3-4 HS arms in the first round in a good year, but teams see the opportunity cost and would rather take those guys in the comp/second rounds. Also I think the HS bat group for 2022 is pretty strong.

Stan: Brendan Rodgers. Your thoughts on his progression this year? Future outlook? Thanks!
Keith Law: Two things I am pleased about. He’s playing regularly, finally. And he’s actually showing power on the road, too. I would still guess he’s more likely to hit .300 than hit 30 homers, but this is still good to see. I loved his bat in HS, and have been disappointed that his eye at the plate hasn’t been better at any level in pro ball – which could be a side effect of playing in great hitters’ parks, or a player development issue. But this is a good start and I still think he becomes an All-Star at 2b.

Mike Sixel: Pick one to answer: What happened to Max Kepler? Is there any realistic path to the Twins starting the year with a good MLB rotation next year? thanks!
Keith Law: Aaron Gleeman had a great piece on Kepler’s low batted ball quality leading to consistently low BABIPs.

Matt: To everyone shocked about what’s happening in Texas, elections have consequences and if you were paying attention, you knew this was gonna happen.
Keith Law: Yep. But I also think a lot of Texans are extremely happy with what’s happening there. They want to live in a theocracy as long as the victims are someone else.

Alex In Austin: Is it appropriate to comment on the atrocious details Jonah Keri admitted to this week?
Keith Law: Sure. Fuck that guy. I hope he rots in jail for a long time. But white men tend to get lighter sentences, and I’m not optimistic he’ll get a sentence commensurate with his crime or the possible threat he still poses.

Thomas: It’s been like thirty minutes and you’ve already already suggested that three people (Bauer, Chipper, Alderson), who are accomplished in the game, should be removed from the sport. Who made you the hall monitor? Doesn’t this get tiring?
Keith Law: Bauer is the only one on that list who might be removed from the sport, and if you’re arguing against that, we don’t have a whole lot of common ground here.

Keith Law School: Before I ask my question, I want to say I enjoy everything you write about outside of baseball.  My question though, is do you ever get “outrage fatigue”? I get that there’s a lot wrong in the world, but I feel like it’s always been that way and it always will. Do you ever take a moment or two and just smell roses and feel content and happy at all?
Keith Law: Remember what I wrote earlier about overweighting certain anecdotes? You’re doing that right now. And making a really absurd inference about my overall state of mind from a superficial view of things I write and say online – especially in a forum like this, where people are asking pointed (and very good!) questions.

Trevor: Thoughts on a Mark Appel comeback?
Keith Law: Completely rooting for him. We have more track record of pitchers coming back after years away than hitters doing so. But he’s not even close to average control yet and that’s a big hurdle.

Ned: Who are you higher on long-term: Jake Burger or Gavin Sheets?
Keith Law: Give me Burger.
Keith Law: mmmm …. burger

Andy: Jose Barrero – guy or GUY?
Keith Law: GUY. Top 75 or so.

Guest: Is Drew Rasmussen a legit starting pitcher?
Keith Law: Two time TJ recipient with heavy use in college. Odds are against it.

Good Eye: How do you distinguish between being a hitter being passive and not selective?
Keith Law: I am not being flippant here when I say you have to watch the games.

Jay’s Dad: Tanner Houck seems like a possible future closer.  As a starter?  I’m not feeling it.
Keith Law: He has a great arm, but he doesn’t have a decent weapon for LHB and that’s going to be a problem in the long term. I think he’d be superb as a closer, but I also wouldn’t advocate moving him to relief yet.

Brett: Hey Keith – just FYI, I don’t think you’re an idiot and knew you knew Pasquantino’s age. Whoever that “Brett” is that added to my original question is not me. Weirdo.
Keith Law: I think Brett2 was trying to say Pasquantino wasn’t old for AA, but he is. Also, to be absolutely clear, I’m not saying Pasquantino is not a prospect, but that the extremely impressive production is not evidence that he’s suddenly a good prospect, if that makes sense. I feel like I should be rooting for him as a fellow paesano.

Danny: Luis Medina was great down the stretch in 2019 in A ball, was very good to start this season in high A, struggled for the better part of this season but has been much better as of late in AA. Has your opinion of whether he can stick in the rotation changed much this year?
Keith Law: I feel like you may be mis-stating my opinion on him. I was hoping to get him this week in Bowie but the storm threw everything off here. I’m hoping to get him in Somerset next week, maybe Wednesday if they hold to their current rotation.

Icarus: Do you think that Ha-Seong Kim will become an average hitter?  Should he be playing everyday in AAA instead of riding the bench in MLB?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s going to hit here, so I’m not sure sending him to AAA will address anything. Maybe he’s just a nice bench player.

Ben: Casey Mize has taken a giant step forward this year… is he our future ace?
Keith Law: I think so – but I’d like to see him use his splitter more.

Josh: Are there any expected long term issues with Jordan Lawlers injury?  The DBacks can’t afford this.
Keith Law: Not that I know of.

Guest: How good is Julio Rodriguez going to be?
Keith Law: He’s going to hit for a ton of power. Maybe a 30 doubles/35 homer guy. RF only and he has some length to his swing that he’ll have to learn to work around.

Matt: Re: Rays. I was at the Reds-Cards game on Wednesday and attendance was ~10K. It’s just a different world right now and the Rays aren’t the only team failing to draw fans.
Keith Law: Also true. Pandemic, economic inequality, and the fact that MLB teams don’t have to draw fans to make money any more.

Matt: Interesting thing about 2001 – the book and the movie were written together by Kubrick and Clarke, so neither is really a “source” for the other.  There’s a terrific book about the entire creative process; I highly recommend it!
Keith Law: I did not know this. Thank you.

Paul: Has Tavares figured things out after spending some time in AAA and not having to work out his struggles in Texas?
Keith Law: For a guy who’s spent about 2/3 of a season in the majors, Taveras hasn’t hit as well in AAA (facing easier pitching) as I would have hoped. It’s more power, but less avg/BABIP.

Josh: I know vaccine mandates for 40 man guys have to be negotiated with the union, but could a team have a mandate for non-40 man players?  Would players have enough leverage to fight it?
Keith Law: Probably a better question for a lawyer.

Noah: I can’t believe some of the people here are suggesting that you talking about shitty people being removed from their jobs (in response to people like me asking some of these questions) makes you some kind of scold.
Keith Law: Me neither.

John: Is there a reason to have hope this country can ever get along?  Seems like a large portion would rather see it burn than learn the meaning of compromise
Keith Law: How do you compromise with people who don’t accept the reality of climate change? Who think vaccines are dangerous (but horse paste isn’t)? Who don’t want basic science taught in schools? Who think women are chattel? Who refuse to see hard evidence of racism in front of them? You can’t compromise with religious fundamentalists. We learned that in Afghanistan. Why is it different here?

Keith Law School: You totally misread my question. I wasn’t trying to be a dick, I was just stating that most of your links are regarding the problems of the world.  It was an innocent question asking if you do take moments to enjoy the good parts of the world.
Keith Law: If you mean the Saturday links, it’s because that’s where the best writing tends to be. But when I find great writing on other topics, I include it too.

Uncle Eddie: Was this strikeout rate from Jarren Duran expected?  I feel like he’s taking too many hitting tips from Bobby Dalbec.
Keith Law: Also his first go-round in the majors. The gap between the minors and MLB seems to be bigger than ever right now.

Matt: Did you see that Bobby Flay and Giada special on the Food Network where they travel to Italy? Man, Italy has shot to the top of my places to visit.
Keith Law: I did not, but I don’t think I’d want to visit Italy with someone who thinks you put heavy cream in pasta alla carbonara. Italy is my favorite place in the world to visit, though. It’s not just the food, although the food is incredible. Italy may be a mess in a lot of ways, but the entire ethos – that work is a means, not an end, and life is to be enjoyed and appreciated – should be our model.

Jesse B: Andy Pages is striking out 30% of the time albeit with big time power. Do you think that’s something he can improve or will he always be a 3 outcome player?
Keith Law: He’s striking out 24% of the time, and with everything else he does, he’s a hell of a prospect.

Paul: I think more than ever the Republicans have done a great job of making issues black and white. So if its vaccines, voting rights, climate change, reproductive rights etc. as long as it “pisses of the libs” it must be good. As long as the issues continue to get drawn that way I don’t see how we ever pull out of this death spiral.
Keith Law: I agree.

Matt: Johnny Bench just tested positive and won’t be at Hall of Fame induction. He was vaccinated and still got sick.
Keith Law: You can get vaccinated and still get sick – but you are substantially less likely to require hospitalization, to require intubation, or to die. And you’re contagious for a shorter period of time. My wife had a breakthrough infection, and she did get sick, with some lingering symptoms even two weeks later, but she didn’t have to go to the hospital, and my daughter and I, who were both vaccinated later than my wife was, never so much as tested positive.

Eric: I’m not anti-vax or pro-ivermectin or any of those things – but don’t you think it is counterproductive that I can’t read a mainstream news report on ivermectin that actually discloses it’s a legitimate safe drug for human use? Not recommended for covid, but it has legitimate uses. Instead, 99% of the coverage would leave the reader believing it’s only used for farm animals.
Keith Law: I’m wondering what the benefit of including that point would be. It does have legitimate uses for certain worm parasites in the GI tract, although, unfortunately, it doesn’t work against guinea worm disease. But in an article on IVM and COVID, that seems like it’s not germane.

Keith: will Colas immediately be the White Sox top prospect and what do you think his ETA and impact might be on the big league club?
Keith Law: No, and I’d really like to see him face some actual pitching first.

Stephen: Is it worth Witt Jr. and/or Pratto getting some time in the majors this month?
Keith Law: I think so. I know the business side would say no, but I’d love to see those guys get 50-60 AB and a month in the MLB clubhouse.

Dr. Bob: RE: Passivity vs. selectivity. I could tell the difference by watching like you can, but player’s comments are sometimes telling. Kolten Wong said that STL wanted him to take more pitches. He intimated that he became more passive as a result. Now he’s being more aggressive and it’s working for him.
Keith Law: Some guys just shouldn’t hit like that. Some guys shouldn’t try to change their swings to hit for more loft. There is no one size fits all approach to hitting. I fall into that trap sometimes too, downgrading players for aspects of their swings that might not work for the majority of players but might work for them.

Brett: Is it entirely plausible that Kristian Robinson never plays another game for MLB?
Keith Law: I think that scenario is unlikely, but sure, not entirely impossible. It would be a shame because this seems to be a clear case of mental illness.

Guy B: Also the problem with the folks sucking up all the ivermectin is that they are making it harder for people who actually need the product, it’s pretty simple really.
Keith Law: Yep. And these ding-dongs are now taking up space in emergency rooms because IVM can cause terrible side effects when taken in non-therapeutic doses.

Corey: This season has demonstrated a significant difference between AAA and MLB pitching ad we’ve seen most prospects struggle when they come up. That being said, what to make of Franchy Cordero ?  He’s an MVP in Worcester but awful in Boston.  Is he a Wily Mo Pena-esque AAAA guy or does he figure it out eventually ?
Keith Law: I think he’s a 4A guy.

Paul: When you go to concerts etc. are you masking up? Are you taking any Covid precautions? ie  Are you only going to shows that require proof of vax or negative test?
Keith Law: Haven’t been to an indoor concert but the plan/hope is exactly that – we’ll mask, of course, but stick to shows that require those things. Philly venues can do so – my daughter and I went to a restaurant that asked to see our vax cards last week – but not all have chosen to. I know Johnny Brenda’s is asking for proof of vax.

John: Fair point on compromise, and agree on all of those issues as not really offering opportunity.  However, even areas where there is need (infrastructure, health care) there is zero compromise for any improvement.  I’m not saying to compromise principles but there should be reasonable areas of common ground to build better roads, or is that all lost as well?
Keith Law: That is a better question for someone who covers the swamp, really.

Rick: Do you still think Gore can be an ace down the road or are the struggles he’s had just too much to fix to get to that level?
Keith Law: Ace upside, positive signs in his return, long way between AZL success and the majors. Stuff is still top of the line.

Wil: Wanted to ask something I don’t know if you’ve been asked lately and everyone should be asked – How are you doing?
Keith Law: I’ll end with this, which Wil asked at the top of the chat. All things considered, we’re good. The last few weeks weren’t fun, but we’re fortunate, and we recognize it. We’re just trying to be prudent about the choices we make. Things are good here, and I hope that most of you can say the same, if not right now then very soon.
Keith Law: Thank you all for reading and for your patience with my relative absence the last few weeks. I do have a column due up on the Athletic on Monday, and should be able to get to games & to write more regularly this month. Stay safe this weekend, everyone – not only because of the pandemic, but because Labor Day is such a heavy travel weekend. Thanks again.

Subscribers to the Athletic can check out my ranking of the top 50 prospects in the minors right now as well as all of my trade deadline breakdowns.

Keith Law: I’m getting older too. Klawchat.

Kevin: Crossing my fingers that whenever they sign a new CBA, they allow trades of draft picks. Are you in favor of this as well?
Keith Law: I wrote a column for ESPN in either 2006 or 2007 arguing that it was in all parties’ best interests to allow trading of draft picks. My view hasn’t changed. Unfortunately neither side has a strong incentive to push for this in the CBA negotiations.

davealden53: I find referring to the extra-inning gimmicks as “phantom runners” to be confusing imprecise.  Those are real flesh-and-blood players on second base, unlike the imaginary runners of backyard wiffle-ball games.  What’s “phantom” is how the players reached second base.  I propose retiring “phantom runners” in favor of “phantom doubles”.  But whatever we call it, I hope it goes away.
Keith Law: Yeah, call it whatever you want, it’s gimmickry of the worst sort.

Frank: The biggest issue to me with the whole Rocker situation is he now has to sit out another year.  If the team that drafts a player doesnt want to sign him for medical reasons, then he should be free to go sign with whomever he wishes.  Seems incredibly unfair to the player to force him to delay his professional career by an entire year.
Keith Law: Hold on – that’s not accurate. He had the choice to submit his MRI to MLB, and thus to all teams before the draft. Had he done so, and any team drafting him then declined to make him an offer of at least 40% of slot, he would be a free agent. He declined to submit the MRI, and this is the consequence of that action. This mechanism of submitting MRIs predraft is not perfect but it better protects player and team than the old system. If a player chooses not to use that system, he must accept the consequences of that choice. The draft itself is a labor-exploiting farce, but this mechanism is one of the few aspects of it that does protect the player’s rights.
Keith Law: What if some other team saw Rocker’s MRI and disagreed with the Mets’ doctors? Then he would have gone somewhere fairly high and gotten paid accordingly – maybe not what the Mets offered, but more than the $0 he has now. And if all teams saw the MRI and said “oh hell no,” he’s no worse off than he is today anyway.

Sam: Were you surprised at how much of a discount Henry Davis signed for?  With no clear cut #1 did the Pirates put out a number to 3-4 guys and he was the one who said yes?
Keith Law: Not surprised, not in this draft class without a clear-cut #1.

Marlin Guy: Hi Keith! What’s your evaluation of Jazz Chisholm at this point? Thanks!
Keith Law: No change. I still think he’s got a real chance to be a star.

Tom: Luis Garcia of the Nats looked great in AAA and even hit 2 homers last night. I know you’ve never been particularly bullish, but is there a chance he has really turned a corner offensively at just 21.
Keith Law: Unless there’s been some real change in his swing that I don’t know about, no, not really. I’m not a huge believer in players who spend a good amount of time in the majors and then go back down and rake in triple-A, facing far worse pitching than they did in the majors. Imagine if a player was promoted to double A, struggled badly, then was returned to high- or even low-A and mashed. You’d look askance at that performance too.

Tom: this may be more of a nate silver question, but do you think theres data to suggest that the anti-vaxxers, most of whom are GOP, that are passing away from COVID, are going to hurt future election results for GOP?
Keith Law: I’m sorry, you stole that take from Nate, although I’m glad it’s getting some visibility.

JP: What did you think of Luis Gil’s MLB debut?
Keith Law: Great fastball, not enough of anything else.

Appa Yip Yip: What’s up with Kevin Smith (of the Blue Jays, not Silent Bob)?
Keith Law: Now that is a swing change guy. Different player than he was pre-COVID (or at Maryland, for that matter). He’s gone from a 3 (nothing) to a 5 (everyday player).

Tom: Other than a not so fast fastball, gotta like what we see from braxton garrett. Is there no. 2 upside here?
Keith Law: No, there’s not. He’s been pretty lucky so far, and the stuff just hasn’t come all the way back post-surgery. I would love to be wrong – he pitched one of the best games I’ve ever seen from a HS pitcher – but even with another mph on his fastball his arsenal is still light.

Fitzy: Is Austin Martin still a top 100 prospect in your view? I believe a lot of my fellow Jays fans were too hung up on his pre-season ranking and believe we got absolutely fleeced for Berrios.
Keith Law: He was on the top 50 linked at the top of this post.

JG: JR Richard passed away last night.  Thoughts…  If he hadn’t had that stroke was he on a HOF trajectory?
Keith Law: Died of COVID-19. Get your vaccine, folks. And yes, I think he was, if he held up – he was throwing exceptionally hard for his era and he might have had the sort of arm problems we saw often at the time.

Jonesy: Should the Jays be doing everything in their power to extend Semien and Ray right now?
Keith Law: No. It all comes down to cost.

Dan: Granted it’s a selected sample size but the Tigers look like a good(!) team since April ended. How much should be attributed to finally having a competent manager as well as positive contributions from Baddoo etc?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t undersell the switch to a competent manager. Also some of the rebuild is starting to hit the majors now.

Jeff: After the Cubs’ firesale, where you would now rank the Cubs’ farm system?
Keith Law: Eyeballing it, around the median. Huge improvement over preseason.

Justin: Would you rather have Henry Davis+Lonnie White, or Leiter+Some College Senior for the identical $7.9 mil of bonus pool?
Keith Law: Davis and White, although I think Davis + Chandler is the better 1-2 combo. Hitters over pitchers, for one thing, and Davis > Leiter anyway.

OJ1977: Seems like Austin Martin’s prospect standing has really dropped, at least in the eyes of Jays management…has his ceiling dropped given his lack of a defensive position and absence of power?
Keith Law: I wrote that. All of it.

Mike: can brett baty stick at 3B long-term? 30 hr potential??
Keith Law: I think he has a real chance to stay at 3b, maybe 50/50, up from maybe 10-20% odds back in HS.

Jake: Thanks for the chat, Keith! In your estimation has Jake Eder shown enough to be a back end top 100 guy? If so, was he close to your updated top 50?
Keith Law: Yes and yes. Legit. Might be better than Meyer, really.

Dark Knight: Riley Greene performing well at AA as a 20 yr old is impressive.  Does he have enough power to hit 20+ hrs in the majors?
Keith Law: I would put the o/u at 25. He’s real. I think I’m seeing him tonight.

Steve Cohen: What do I do now?  The system seems pretty top heavy with high A and AA players.  The failure to get any trades done is a consequence of the top heavy system – the list of desirable prospects is short.  Missing on Kumar I assume is a huge mistake (so much for the opposite of lolMets). What does this mean for the system and the future?
Keith Law: see above on Rocker. It is just wrong to peg this as a Mets error when nobody but the team and Rocker’s group know what was in the medicals. They also swapped a lot of talent in previous deals. I still think they’re well positioned to continue contending into the next several years.

Tom: Kyle Stowers is putting up pretty big numbers in AA (although in only 161 PA).  Any hope for him?
Keith Law: Fourth OF. Seen him a bunch.

Andrew: How would you grade the O’s rebuild to date. When is it fair to start building expectations for the major league club?
Keith Law: It’s fair, not great, hurt by the fact that the veterans were all traded (generally for not enough return) before the new regime came in; the awful luck with Kjerstad; and a continued lack of any production from the international side.

Ira: How can the Mets ever build up a farm system when they purposely draft under slot value for the entire draft for the purpose of signing a top pick, and then not sign that pick? Seems to me if many teams were afraid of Rocker’s physical status and he dropped, then the Mets should have maybe picked a different player.
Keith Law: Revisionist history. Don’t know any teams that were “afraid of Rocker’s physical status.” However, I would argue the Mets should have taken Will Taylor or another high-bonus HS kid in the 11th round and handed him the money they didn’t give Rocker.

Jay: Of the things Theo Epstein has discussed for improving the game (moving the mound, limits on shifts, pitch clocks, limiting # of pitchers on the roster) do you like any of them and which do you think can have the biggest positive impact?
Keith Law: Pitch clocks are a mixed bag – they do move the game along in an appreciable way, but may increase pitcher injuries. I like limiting the number of pitchers on the roster to try to discourage too many mid-inning pitching changes. But if you really want to speed the game up, you need shorter commercial breaks, and nobody wants to touch that.

Newt: If Dermis Garcia ever got a season with 600 PAs in the majors, would he be the inaugural member of the 30 HR, 350K Club?
Keith Law: He has 40 homer power and would probably strike out 50% of the time, enough that he’d never sniff 30 or even 20 homers.

Sean: Hi Keith, anything in Detmers start that gave you pause on his upside?  Curve looked great but fastball didn’t seem to get many misses, even holding the mid 90s velo.  Maybe just command jitters in his first start?
Keith Law: I don’t like judging any pitcher on his first major league start.

Vin: Hi Keith. Thanks for these chats. How do you evaluate the job Kapler has done with the Giants? Are there specific things he’s doing differently now than when he was in Philly?
Keith Law: Entire organizational approach to hitting has changed under him. I think he’s the manager of the year. That club has no business being this good.

Dallas: There is a Voltaggio brother’s cooking competition on Discovery+ that’s fantastic. Nicky Lopez is past 2.0 WAR on both BR and FG and could finish around 3.0 WAR. If this is who he is, is that a starting 2B going forward or still more of a very quality utility player (as a lot of that WAR is based on SS defense). Thanks.
Keith Law: I think he’s an everyday guy.

Vin: Could Luis Matos make a leap into the top 100 next season?
Keith Law: Yes. I think he was my Giants sleeper prospect this year or maybe last year before the shutdown.

Guest: I thought the Mets had to offer Rocker 40% of the slot to get the pick last year? Did that rule change?
Keith Law: No, the rule is the same, but only applies if the player complies with the MRI program.

Guest: What do you think the PA should be aiming for in the next CBA? Reduced service time requirement to FA? Arb eligible earlier?
Keith Law: I mean, yes, all of the above. distributing more money to players with less than 6 years service time should be a goal – those are the players whose salaries are artificially suppressed by the current system.

Luke: Anecdotally, 80-grade tools seem more commonly placed on players for arm strength, speed, raw power. Less common for hit and glove. The latter are more difficult to measure and thus harder to have confidence in. But given 20-80 is based on a distribution, would we expect the same number of 80s league-wide for each tool?
Keith Law: 20-80 is not based on a distribution. That story has been retconned on to the scale.

Justin: Is Adam Frazier a pretty good comparison for Tucupita Marcano?  Maybe Marcano needs to bulk up a little bit to make that possible?
Keith Law: I hate comps but I don’t hate that one.

Justin: Do you think Hoy Park can be a 1.5 WAR type SS and/or Super Util?
Keith Law: No. Way under that one.

Tony: This might require a tinfoil hat on my end, but is there a chance that the Orioles are keeping Rutschman in Double A for the whole year, so they have a ready-made excuse for keeping him down next year, too? Given where we are in the calendar, it feels unlikely they’d promote him for three weeks
Keith Law: TFH. I don’t believe this for a second. I do wonder if they’re keeping him in Bowie because it’s the nearby affiliate and they’ve always tried to keep Bowie competitive.

Shaun: How have you seen Torkelson progress this year,’? Expected? Over expectations?
Keith Law: Looked very good at the Futures Game. Should see him tonight too.

Steve: Is a Sox fan and liked Madrigal, though not devastated to see him gone. As a scout, what makes you so certain that power can’t develop like it did with Jose Altuve or other similar bodied players? Is he just an outlier and it’s unfair to compare? What are the metrics that show potential power with maturation?
Keith Law: He doesn’t look anything at all like Altuve. Really – just look at their builds and frames. They’re both short. I’m 5’6″, Altuve is 5’5″ if that, but I couldn’t possibly be as muscular as Altuve was, even if you put me on a weight training program (and I wasn’t 48, etc., etc.). You need strength, including real hand and forearm strength, to hit for power, or even just to hit with any authority.

Ryan: Who do you think has higher upside between Jordan Lawlar and Corbin Carroll? As a Dbacks fan, I can’t remember the last time I was this excited for the future.
Keith Law: Carroll.

Reb Wiseau: Are you surprised that Jud Fabian didn’t sign with the Red Sox?
Keith Law: No, but that’s not to his credit. Dude punched out 79 times this year and was just as bad at the end of the year as he was at the beginning. He was lucky to get an offer of first round money. Now he’ll be an older 21 in what might be a stronger draft class next year. He’d better be WAY better at the plate to get that kind of payout again.

Ben: Is this season out of nowhere for Willy Adames, or did the Brewers get a real star at SS?
Keith Law: Top 100 prospect several times, on my breakouts list for 2020, so definitely not out of nowhere, but maybe a year late.

Andy: Anyone who thinks of Tommy John as riskless should look up Brady Aiken, who went from #1 overall pick to being out of baseball by 24.
Keith Law: Well, he had something wrong in his elbow that made TJ itself a riskier proposition. (He’s also still in Cleveland’s system, just on the IL.) But some players don’t come back all the way from TJ. And, in an extreme outlier, a pitcher at George Mason died after TJ surgery – I don’t know if it was an infection or bleeding or something else – which I think should remind us all that Tommy John surgery is surgery, and not minor surgery at that. No surgery is riskless.

Noah: Hi Keith, as always, thank you for your chats.  As a fellow anxiety-sufferer and believer in science and feminist, the baseball stuff is just the icing on the cake for me.  But my question is: given what Sandy Alderson has overseen in terms of hiring personnel with red flags (i.e. multiple  sexual harassment hires), why isn’t there more of an outcry for him to resign?  It seems that not only the media, the Mets organization, but also fans are just sweeping this under the rug and forgetting about it.
Keith Law: I’ve had a few people around MLB ask the same question. If Sandy was responsible, then why isn’t he being held accountable, and if he wasn’t responsible, well, why not? I don’t have an answer to that. I wouldn’t be shocked if he stepped aside at the end of this year, especially now that a few of his top lieutenants have been promoted/extended.

Brendan: Hi Keith! Its highly unlikely that to ever happen but in the wake of the Rocker situation I’ve seen a couple sport writers and many fans call for the end of the draft (unfair labor practices/manipulation and all). If that were to happen, what could be done to prevent all the top prospects from signing with one team? Perhaps a hybrid system where teams still receive the equivalent of their bonus pools and they can sign as many “draft picks” as they want with that money with fines and penalties similar to the international pool rules for exceeding your allotted money? Thanks!
Keith Law: Why would all of the top prospects sign with one team so they can fight for the finite amount of playing time available?

Dungeon Master: any change on Triston Casas evaluation this year? Results seem solid but not spectacular. Is he the Red Sox 1B by next summer? I know tough for a 1B to hit top 50, but hoping the bat is good enough to play there for a first division team.
Keith Law: No change. Good prospect, waiting for more thump to show up.

Ian: Any changes to the view of Nick Yorke and/or Blaze Jordan after some of their recent successes?
Keith Law: Small samples, and Jordan did it in the Florida Man League, but it’s all very promising, especially seeing Jordan show some power in games (while playing below sea level down there). Also don’t sleep on Brandon Walter. Delaware lefty, 26th rounder, now up to 97 with a starter look.

Mike: Any restaurant recommendations near Rehoboth/Dewey?
Keith Law: The Station & Eggcelent in Lewes. Rise Up coffee in Rehoboth. I try not to eat down at Rehoboth because it’s basically Grotto’s and Thrasher’s on an infinite loop.

Bradley: What are your thoughts on how the Cubs did overall on prospects received in their trades?  Specifically Madrigal and Heuer for Kimbrel?
Keith Law: I wrote up all my Cubs deadline thoughts here.

Evan R.: Astros prospect Hunter Brown…the next Walker Buehler?
Keith Law: I mean, Brown has great shit, top 25 prospect in baseball kind of shit … but he’s only had anything approaching average control for about six weeks now.

Sean: The Graveman trade broke our hearts, but this Abraham Toro guy seems like an infielder that can switch hit with power and speed. What do you see in him?
Keith Law: The trade of a journeyman reliever in the midst of his first really good season broke your hearts? I like Toro, more like a  multi-position utility guy who can play close to every day, but much prefer him to Graveman.

Coffee Drinker: You like coffee. I like coffee. What beans do you typically get and from where?
Keith Law: All over. I buy beans whenever I travel. Right now I’m using some Royal Mile Breakfast Jawn (light roast) beans for espresso and a Colombian from GIV coffee in Canton, CT, for pour-over.

Dark Knight: Dodgers have been giving Gavin Lux opportunities for couple years… do you see him more as a Carter Kieboom/ Biggio?  or still someone who will be an above avg regular?
Keith Law: Chance to be a star. Way better than those other two. Not even in the same league in tools or ability.

Sean: Any intel as to why the Red Sox didn’t beat the Yankees offer for Rizzo?  It seems like it wasn’t a prospect quality issue and the SSS results are…frustrating
Keith Law: Disagree. Prospects the Cubs got were good.

Mike: Along the same line as the Luis Garcia question – do you feel the same about Jose Barrero? He seems to be walking much more than he did in the past.
Keith Law: Yes, but I feel a little better about his power potential because it was always there.

Jon: Have you been able to see or hear anything new about any Cardinals prospects like Gorman, Liberatore, or Thompson?
Keith Law: I saw Gorman and Liberatore in Denver and wrote them up.

Mike: I’ve seen Riley Greene a bunch of times and see flashes of Eastern League top prospects Gregory Polanco and Dom Brown with him due to a slow bat, is he closer to a 5 level talent than a 6?
Keith Law: Uh … no, that’s not accurate at all.

John: Are you a believer in Samad Taylor? The power has kind of come out of nowhere.
Keith Law: He’s a real prospect. Possible regular.

Guest: Hi Keith– I was curious what, if anything, you’ve heard about George Valera this year. Walk rate seems pretty impressive for such a young guy at that level.
Keith Law: Very positive reports. Wanted to see him in the Futures Game too.

Josh: You seem fairly high on Randy Vasquez.  Where does he rank compared to endless amount of right handers the Yankees have like Medina, Gil, Way, Yoendrys Gomez, etc.
Keith Law: Less famous, more likely to be a starter than Medina, Gil, or Way, I think.

Dark Knight: Andre Jackson just pitched well in AA and promoted to AAA.  LA has Pepiot & Miller/Beeter that looks like they’ll be ready soon.  Will LA use the Gonsolin model for these guys?
Keith Law: I definitely would with Jackson, who is still ‘young’ in pitching experience (but not young for a prospect).

Mac: Are you surprised the White Sox moved on from Nick Madrigal so quickly?
Keith Law: No. They’re smart people. They saw his ceiling as well as his floor and made a calculated decision.

Chris: Trying not to read the stat lines on less heralded guys but do the Yanks have anything in Waldichuk, Wesneski, and Sears?  (Was gonna ask about Hauver, Otto, and Junk too but no longer care!)
Keith Law: I wrote up Wesneski, think he’s a reliever, but I know guys who have him in as a starter. Waldichuk is more on the starter/reliever bubble.

Alex In Austin: Is there any value in bringing up Witt Jr now to start getting challenged at the major league level or does it make more long term sense to wait to start the clock?
Keith Law: I’d love to see him up in September for that very reason. They might not do so for 40-man reasons but I think it’ll help his development to come up for a few weeks, even if he gets overpowered. He’ll make the adjustment.

Jason: Kelenic has been really bad in MLB and the list of other players who have begun their career this bad is very discouraging despite the great MiLB numbers. How much do you weigh historical trends when projecting his future?
Keith Law: Not at all, since we are in the highest K% era in the sport’s history.

Matt: Is the Jose Miranda breakout legit?
Keith Law: Been talking about him for years, and I think I said this in the last chat too. He can hit.

Ben: So a lot of Tiger’s fan understand the circumstances with Manning being up now, even though he is clearly not ready. But I saw a comparison between his statcast and Mike Pelfrey’s and made me sick. Even tho he isn’t ready, shouldn’t he be putting up better metrics than that as is? Has your overall outlook on his future changed?
Keith Law: He wasn’t 100% last year, with a sore shoulder, and then hasn’t been good at any level this year. My inference is that he never got ‘right.’ It seems awfully coincidental that he should get hurt for the first time, and then after that struggle like he hasn’t since he was still in extended spring training a year after the draft.

Dave Mayer: Hi Keith, Thoughts on Nick Lodolo?  Was he close on your mid season top 50?
Keith Law: Not close – top 100, not top 50. Big leaguer for sure, not a huge ceiling.

Jason: The Jays obviously soured on Austin Martin. Do you think the trade also speaks to them thinking highly of Groshans and how do you feel about Groshans future?
Keith Law: I don’t have great reports from this year on Groshans.

Arnold: In last week’s deadline deals, which team is most likely to regret the prospect they gave up for the two-month rental they received?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t shock anyone if Martin became a star after all. If you want a slightly more obscure name, Kevin Alcantara is a longshot, but also probably has the most upside of all the guys the Cubs got.

Roger: What do you think is the ETA on Volpe and does he have what it takes to stick at SS?
Keith Law: Could be up by end of 2022; my best guess is he’s good enough to stay at short, maybe even be a 55 defender there, but that the Yankees (or whoever) would try to get a 60 or better guy to replace him and move him to second. He’s not going to hurt you with his glove, though.

Barry: I’ve read The Inside Game and know your thoughts on drafting high school pitchers. Do you think the industry agrees with you and maybe the Phillies think they found a market inefficiency or (based on recent history) are they just bad at drafting?
Keith Law: I know some execs agree with me, but obviously not all do, and if nobody is taking HS pitchers in the first round at all, that would probably change the data, right? Suddenly if there are only 1 or 2 HS arms going in the first round each year, we might find their failure rate is similar to that of other player types.

Andy: Could the Mets have seen the MRI on Rocker, said nothing, signed him, rested him due to a full college season and then tried to trade him in the offseason? Would that have gone afoul of disclosure rules, even though he didn’t have an injury per se?
Keith Law: Other teams would have asked to see the MRI.

Ryan: Can Touki still be a #2 or better starter for the Braves?
Keith Law: He has that potential. I think he has ace stuff, really, but prior to those two starts when he came back this year (before the one against the Brewers), he’d never really shown the command to be a starter. It was always a bet on ridiculous stuff and +++ athleticism.

Dark Knight: Is Josh Winder for real?  Has a chance to be a #3?
Keith Law: Yes.

Ryan: What happened to Hiura? Does he just need a change of scenery?
Keith Law: The Brewers tried to turn him into a big launch-angle, swing-up for power guy, and it has ruined him as a hitter. He’s a zero at the plate right now. I don’t know anyone who could hit the way he’s swinging. It’s aggravating – this kid was going to make a ton of money just hitting for average with lots of doubles, and someone took that away from him to chase the latest fad. Swing optimization has worked wonders for some players, but it is not a one-size-fits-all solution.

Buck: Does Rowdy Tellez have at least platoon potential or not even that?
Keith Law: Not really. A platoon DH isn’t worth the roster spot.

ssinole: What are your thoughts on Andrew Vaughn? Learning a new position,  playing it pretty well and now he’s starting to mash RHP.
Keith Law: Big fan. Thought for bat alone he was better than Rutschmann, but Adley had the positional value.

Zac: Even if Jackson Jobe becomes the greatest pitcher of all time, doesn’t Al Avila still deserve criticism for taking a huge risk at 3? I’m sure if Jobe becomes a star, people will compliment Avila for the pick when he actually should be criticized.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s a process vs results issue. This was not a great process, given who else was on the board and the base rate of HS pitchers. It may still yield great results.

Dave: A lot of people seem to think that the A’s to Vegas is going to happen. Is that really a great market, especially considering Lake Mead is drying up and they already have two pro teams?
Keith Law: Worst market. Bad demographics, bad weather, and as you said, too much competition already.
Keith Law: The NBA has been quite savvy about moving into new markets, and they haven’t toyed with this idea yet. Says something.

Danny: I read on Baseball America that Austin Wells’s defense is looking rough? Have you heard similar sentiments and where would you move him if he’s not a catcher?
Keith Law: Said that before the draft. He can really hit but he’s not a catcher.

Paul: Reading your reviews, you mentioned Fabian has some big holes in his swing. Do you think  he jumps up to the top of the first round next year?
Keith Law: Extremely unlikely. Can’t say never, but he has to make some huge adjustments that he didn’t make this year, and he’ll be evaluated against a higher standard for his experience level.

Dark Knight: Seth Beer the future 1B for ARI as soon as next year?  Can he be the prototypical power bat at the corner?
Keith Law: I don’t buy it. Below average defensive 1B, for one thing.

Kretin: Chris Rodriguez seemed to do ok in his first MLB start. Do you think he will be durable enough to stick as a starter?
Keith Law: Great arm, tough delivery and history of back problems make me skeptical.

CVD: Surprised by the James Wood overslot?
Keith Law: Floored. Area scouts I know were very wary of him.

Justin: What’s the deal with Bryse Wilson?  Is he a guy who needs to move to relief to see if the stuff ticks up?
Keith Law: No, the velocity isn’t the issue, but the secondary stuff is. Eager to see if working with a new coaching staff/org can help him develop a better slider, in particular.

Mike: It’s still a small sample, but to clarify the two homers Luis Garcia hit last night were vs. the Phillies, not in AAA
Keith Law: I mean …

Ken: Have you written about Jose Miranda at all? Just read a Gleeman post noting he has the best OPS for a minor leaguer in the orgs history. Curious how this boosts his stock.
Keith Law: Several times. He’s been on my Twins rankings for a few years.

Jerome: Have you been watching Olympic baseball? Thoughts on kazmir thinking he can pitch in the MLB again
Keith Law: Not a single pitch.

Zach: What will it take for there to be actual, impactful changes to the minor league system a la the Astros providing housing for all their minor leaguers? I know it’s a battle between billionaires wanting to cheap out as much as possible vs protecting their investments, is there anyway we can help move the needle?
Keith Law: Public pressure. Britt Ghiroli’s article today should help. MLB did an end run around labor laws to get minor leaguers declared “seasonal employees.” The only thing that will change their minds is public pressure to do so.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all so much for reading. I’ll have a scouting notebook up in the next few days for subscribers.

Starting at 3 pm ET. My team-by-team draft recaps are now up for subscribers to The Athletic:
• AL East
• AL Central
• AL West
• NL East
• NL Central
• NL West

Keith Law: D4 damage with the ill behavior. Klawchat.

Debbie: What kind of offensive ceiling does Francisco Alvarez possess? Did his Future Game BP change your raw power grade on him?
Keith Law: I think it’s 70 power, but no, I didn’t change anything off the Futures Game look. I’d just seen him two weeks earlier in regular games anyway.

Carl: Can Cole Winn be a mid-rotation starter? Despite the home run during the Futures Game, he looked impressive.
Keith Law: He did look impressive and that’s what I think he is.

mike sixel: Buxton: traded in the next 12 months, or signed to stay in MN? How about Berrios?
Keith Law: I’d guess they sign Buxton and trade Berrios. Buxton might give them some discount given how often he’s been hurt. I can’t see them going 5 years on Berrios, but he could get that in free agency.

Joel: Hi, Keith. Thanks for the fantastic draft coverage throughout the past three months. If you were given the authority to make unilateral changes to improve the draft, what changes would you make?
Keith Law: Make picks tradeable, first and foremost. I’d also consider a lottery for the top picks in the draft, or something to deter any thought of teams tanking (although I doubt anyone is explicitly tanking for draft position).

JJ: Are Jarren Duran’s home/road splits a concern?  The new ballpark in Worcester seems to be a hitter’s park.
Keith Law: It is a hitter’s park – it’s on a hill, right? – but his power is real.

Robert: 20 pitchers! It’s concerning that despite going pitching heavy the last few years they still felt the need to do this.
Keith Law: It’s a gimmick, I think. But I like what they did up top.

David: Any idea what’s wrong with Blake Snell? He’s denied injury but has looked utterly lost on the mound this year.
Keith Law: I’m assuming it’s an injury of some sort.

Nacho: Thoughts on Brennan Davis? Futures game aside, he’s seems to be making adjustments and is crushing AA at a young age. Could he be a top 25 prospect by year-end?
Keith Law: He’s top 50 now, at least. I’m a fan.

Jon G: The Cubs used their first two picks on day 3 on preps that publicly said no within a day. Is this necessarily a sign of bad process within the draft room?
Keith Law: No, those picks are usually throwaways, or just senior signs to fill rosters.
Keith Law: You take those HS kids on the off chance that they come to their senses change their minds before heading to college.

Nils: What exactly makes a pitcher “home run prone”?  Hear that as a knock on some prospects, but is that a trait that is fixable?
Keith Law: Usually it’s a fastball thing – their fastballs lack life or movement, and if they get too much of the heart of the zone, hitters hit them. Far.

Himself: When a team like the pirates are able to draft 4 elite guys like they did, are they concerned that they’ll be available at each pick or fairly certain because of the relative cost and bonus pool management for other clubs?
Keith Law: Those teams have negotiated with those players’ advisers to come to verbal agreements – if your player is there, we will take him and pay him $X – and the advisers will then try to deter other teams from taking those players.
Keith Law: There are no guarantees, but that’s the tacit agreement that holds up the system.

Shaughn B: Hey Keith, read the recaps – thanks for those! Were there any team drafts you thought were more in line with the approach you would’ve taken? Any that went way against the grain of an approach you agree with?
Keith Law: The Phillies went heavy on high school pitching, which you know I don’t favor, especially not in the first round. I think the Reds had my favorite draft and the one that most mirrored my philosophy.

Nate: It’s been a very disappointing season to be a Twins fan, but one of the pleasant surprises has been seeing Jose Miranda’s improvement. How much has his outlook changed from a year ago? Can he be an everyday third baseman?
Keith Law: I loved him in his draft year and the Twins, to their credit, have always been steadfast in their (outward) belief that he’d hit. He could be a regular, yes.

John: Aside from the feature ASG events themselves, how was your experience in Denver this week?
Keith Law: Great! Good city for this event. Loved that I could walk everywhere. Had amazing coffee at Little Owl and grade 80 sushi at Sushi Den. The light rail is great too. Not sure where the city put all the oxygen, though.

Eric: With the performance of Tork, Greene & Dingler, not to mention the emergence of Baddoo, is it fair to say Detroit’s rebuild all of a sudden looks much more promising than one might have thought before the season?
Keith Law: Yes, I think so. Manning’s regression hurts a little.

John: The Red Sox seem to think their history with training hitters means they can fix the holes in Fabian’s swing.  Any reason to believe that?
Keith Law: Didn’t work with Dalbec. It’s not a “hole” per se but a complete and utter inability to make an adjustment. He couldn’t hit sliders when the season started, and he couldn’t hit them when the season ended.

Sandy Alderson: Is Rocker’s ETA 2022?
Keith Law: Maybe end of 2022, but I’d rather take it a little slower with him than I would with Leiter.

John: What’s the youngest player that you’ve ever scouted?
Keith Law: I saw Bryce Harper at 15. I was in the DR once, primarily to see Cuban free agent Eddy Julio Martinez, and saw some 14-year-olds. Stir Candelario, who is now in the Rays’ system, was one of them.

Bill S.: Keith – great work on the draft!  Your work is very much appreciated.  Regarding Henry Davis – he impressed me when I listened to him on your podcast this spring.  He seems very confident and cerebral, yet humble.  Seemed to have strong leadership qualities.  When evaluating a prospect for the draft, how much stock do teams put in those characteristics?  Thank you.
Keith Law: Some teams weigh that stuff extremely heavily, some don’t care at all. I would consider this kind of makeup – he made it very clear he’s a student of the game and determined to improve even in small areas. I wouldn’t be as concerned with leadership skills; not every player has to be a leader and I think in general teams that do weigh that characteristic end up putting too much weight on it because it is impossible to objectively measure.

Reb Wiseau: Will Marcelo Mayer need appreciably more money over slot to sign with the Sox?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine why.

Pat: Did the Cubs just get Bryce Ball Player, or Bryce Broken Prospect?
Keith Law: He’s flawed, but has real power. The lost year really kills players like him.

Cole: As an Angels fan, I was pretty upset with Bachman over Rocker at 9 when it first happened, but the more I look into Bachman, the more intrigued I am. What are your thoughts on that specific decision?
Keith Law: Rocker is the better prospect, but by a small margin.
Keith Law: He’s also never missed a start, as far as I know, and Bachman did.

Sean: Thoughts on detmers at the futures game?  When will he be ready for the major league rotation?
Keith Law: He was in my Futures Game writeup. I would absolutely call him up this year.

Hanyo: I know it’s early for the 2022 draft, but since Conor Prielipp is most likely out for the entire 2022 season, how would you expect teams to look at him draft wise barring any setbacks? 1st round? Or is it more likely he comes back for the 2023 season to prove himself and that he’s healthy?
Keith Law: Teams really have no looks at him in college – 4 starts last year, 3 abbreviated ones this year, and then he blew out. The timing was terrible for him … but if ever there was a prospect who should consider the Draft League, it’s him. He’d be 13-14 months off surgery then. He could go to the Cape too, as long as he’s healthy.

Schmo: Do you see the draft being longer than 20 rounds in the future? I don’t see a reason for it, considering the cut short season leagues
Keith Law: Nope. It might end up shorter.

Kevin: how high as a newly drafted prospect debuted on your top 100 prospects? Has one every been a top 10 prospect?
Keith Law: Yes, almost certain that’s happened with Harper & Strasburg. I’m looking Harper up now…
Keith Law: Harper was #2 going into 2011, after Trout. That’s the record.

JP: The Braves have had many pitching prospects throughout their rebuild and recent success, with Muller maybe the last of the group from the rebuild years. Is Fried, Anderson and some of Soroka about right for what should have been expected from that group? It feels 1-2 players too low.
Keith Law: I hoped they’d get more out of that group – Toussaint, Wright, Wilson, Newcomb – but the clock hasn’t run out on them all, either. Maybe one or more of those guys find success elsewhere.

Schmo: What are your thoughts on a strategy about drafting guys after the 10th round? Think teams should go for a mix of unsignable, fringe signable, and signable guys, go for mostly fringe signable guys since it won’t lose any bonus money to not sign them, or go for mostly signable guys?
Keith Law: In the 11th and 12th rounds you should just take the best guys still on the board and offer them all your extra pool money, if you have any. Or, if they change their minds at the last second, you hold their rights.
Keith Law: After that just take the best guys you can for the limit and for whom you have playing time.

Joel: Keith, there’s been a lot of reporting about what a hard worker Henry Davis is, with a true drive to get better and maximize his talent. Honestly, I’ve always been somewhat skeptical about these accounts because they tend to feed into the traditional sports narrative of hard-working white guys vs. people of color relying on their natural ability. When you were working for the Blue Jays did you try to assess intangibles like attitude and, if so, how did you do it?
Keith Law: It’s more than that – players of color are far too often assumed to not work hard. The right way to interpret those data would be to gather all of it from your scouts, and then check to see if they have any implicit biases and adjust those makeup grades accordingly, That is, if Johnny Scout always has Black players’ makeup grades 5 points below those of white players, you adjust so they’re on the same scale. (And then maybe show Johnny the data and explain what’s going on.)

Sam: Where does Mayer fit into Boston’s rankings, for you? New #1?
Keith Law: I’m going to write a piece for next week on which teams just drafted their new #1 prospects. It’s fewer than usual, I think, in part because you had teams drafting high who already have elite prospects in their systems (Detroit, Baltimore).

TorkelsonMVP2028: If you were the Tigers GM, who would you have taken at 3? I feel like the selection of Jobe is textbook base rate neglect. The opportunity cost just isn’t there. Mayer or Kahlil Watson were my preferences.
Keith Law: Yep, Mayer would have been my pick.

Warbiscuit: I know you’re not a fan of comparing your lists compared to others, but MLB.com and BA and a few others had Ryan Bliss ranked around the 60’s-70’s range while you had him ranked 38 in your list and mocked him as the 28 pick. Do you think he will stick at SS(where others don’t think he will) or do you really believe in the bat? I know you liked he proved himself in the SEC.
Keith Law: I think he stays at shortstop, enough of a chance that it justified the higher ranking. The mocks were based on teams showing interest, though, not my personal opinion.

Preston: My 9-year-old just finished first year of kid pitch and got to play some catcher. But I’m burying the lede. He’s lefthanded! Are you coming across any LH catchers? And what’s the rationale against it from a strategic standpoint? There are so many RH hitters it would disrupt throwing out baserunners, though nobody steals anymore …
Keith Law: If your kid is LH and throws hard at all, he’s going to end up on the mound.

Nathan: There are some players that have been openly against vaccines (Simmons comes to mind).  Do you think less of them as a result?
Keith Law: I think less of them as people, not as players.

Mac: its fairly obvious money is the biggest factor in the MLB draft. What has to be changed to make talent the biggest factor?
Keith Law: Hard slotting would do that. It would also completely fuck the players over, especially the best ones.

Zach: Which twins arm of winder, balazovic or Duran do you have the most faith in?
Keith Law: Balazovic, Winder, Duran, in that order.

Bob: Has Vlad exceeded your expectations at this point or simply lived up to what you expected?
Keith Law: This is what he was supposed to be. Just took him an extra year or so.

Buster Bluth: Do you consider yourself high, low or about even with other scouts on Jarren Duran?  And does it seem odd to you to make the call when Kikè was finally starting to hit a little bit to go with the excellent defense?
Keith Law: Kiké is who he is. What he did in the last two weeks doesn’t change that at all.

Brett: Best chance of becoming a GUY between Tyler Freeman, Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Volpe?
Keith Law: Volpe, Gunnar, Freeman, in that order.

Sam Tiger: What do you think the upside is of Dillion Dingler?
Keith Law: All-Star catcher.

Guest: Your Yankees review was better than I expected (given that Sweeney was something like 89th on your top 100 and I don’t think Selvidge or Beck were in your top 100). Do you get the sense that Selvidge (and maybe Fitts) gets any overslot deal? Do they have a chance of signing either of the post 10th round high school Seans? (Hermann and Hard)
Keith Law: Selvidge and Fitts were better prospects in October than now, and I think they have to take less than they probably expected. I wonder if they can sign Hard because he’s a local kid and played on their scout teams. They were one of the only teams scouting him the day I saw him.

Arnold: Will Bednar’s draft stock rose through the College World Series as he pitched the Mississippi State Bulldogs to the national title, but with only two proven good pitches–fastball and slider–does he have enough for the major league level or can he develop his change-up that he did not have to use much in college?
Keith Law: I don’t really believe his stock rose then – he wasn’t as good as he was in his last outing every time out.
Keith Law: I wrote about his strengths and weaknesses in the Giants team report (linked up top).

Eh Team: Did Arizona really pick Lawlar without a deal in place?
Keith Law: Maybe. I mean, if he wants to walk away from $5.7MM+ and go to college, go for it. I don’t think any player has ever turned down a bonus that large.

Owen Sharts Stanalyticsplant: Is there any hope for an AFL season this year?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything yet. I am afraid they’ll cancel it to save the $4.73 they spend on the league each year.

The Jolly Roger: Adam Frazier for Nick Madrigal. Who says no?
Keith Law: Man, that is really interesting. I would guess the White Sox would say no … but it seems good for both sides, especially with Chicago in great position to win this year.

Bob: Gunnar Hogland might be a great pick for the Jays at 19, but what is the track record of pitchers who have had TJ in college?
Keith Law: I don’t believe it’s any different from pitchers who’ve had it in the minors.

Neez Duts: Why is the futures game just 7 innings? That maybe gives you one at bat for the prospects who start out on the bench. I hope they go back to 9 inning games in the future (totally intended)
Keith Law: Because of fears they wouldn’t have enough pitching for 9 innings. I hate the 7-inning format and hate that it’s on TV against a full slate of 15 MLB games.
Keith Law: Just do it another night. Do it Monday afternoon. Do it literally any other time the field is available.

Stevo: Hi Keith, thanks for the chat. How surprised were you that Rocker landed in the Mets’ lap?
Keith Law: I wasn’t, I mentioned that possibility at least a month ago. Everyone knew it was in play, at least.

Alex: Do you think the Orioles’ farm system has improved overall since the start of the season with the positive developments of Rodriguez, Henderson, Rutschman, Hall (barring health) etc.? What is their biggest need?
Keith Law: Yes, so far, so good, other than Kjerstad (totally beyond their control). Solid start for Joey Ortiz too. They still need more pitching, but who doesn’t?

buccoguin: Do teams have “agreements” or at least detailed conversations about demands with certain players.  IE did the Pirates have a good idea what Chandler and White would require to get them out of their football commitments?
Keith Law: Oh absolutely.

Tom: We should be expecting a very different Kelenic this time around, right?
Keith Law: Yes, I predict he has at least one hit in his first 35 at bats.

Guest: Damon Oppenheimer said that Brendon Beck is a guy who could move quickly and doesn’t have much to work on- just get innings. Do you agree and does that timeline sound like 1st half of next year for a debut?
Keith Law: I agree. Low ceiling, high floor.

John: You had Jarren Duran at #93 on your prospects list in the offseason. Approximately how far would he have moved up the list if you updated the ranking now?
Keith Law: I’m updating it next week. I’ll have to decide if I include players in the majors who haven’t exceeded rookie limits, though.

BD: Nats draft you said was low ceiling?   Why?
Keith Law: I said that because it was low ceiling (after House, who is all ceiling, no floor).

buccoguin: Thoughts on Mitch Keller at this point in the season?  Was he overhyped or just a rough start to his career?
Keith Law: He has needed a pitch for lefties for four years now, and we’ve seen no change (pun intended). He seems like a good candidate for a splitter, which would help solve the problem.

Brett: The Royals have been heavily criticized for taking prep arms with their early picks this draft. Dayton Moore stated they did this because they didn’t want college guys with “4th or 5th starter ceilings.” Besides seeming like an unnecessary shot at his 2018 class of college arms, do you see this as being a valid defense? Were the college arms available to KC at 7 “4th or 5th starter ceiling” types? I certainly hadn’t seen that ceiling placed on Rocker.
Keith Law: Even if that’s true, it omits the part about college starter prospects often having higher floors.
Keith Law: Rocker ain’t a 4th/5th starter, either. Nor is Bachman.

El Guapo: Jo Adele’s k% is below 24% and his OPS is north of .900 for the last month at AAA. It’s a small sample but the trend lines across all of his AAA works supports this directional improvement. This is basically what he was doing at AA in 2019 when everyone had him as a top 10-15 prospects at worst. He’s still only 22 and by most statistical standards doing well in AAA. Is this a case where we can’t unsee 2020? Or is there still a star player on there?
Keith Law: There ight still be a star there, but Salt Lake is a great place to hit, and I’m sure AAA pitching looks a good bit easier to hit than what he saw in the majors. He has to come back up to the majors at some point and show the progress is real.

Joe D.: Any idea how far over slot the Dodgers will have to go to sign Heubeck?  I assume Bruns will sign under-slot to balance things out within their draft pool?
Keith Law: I think they’ll go under in most of the rounds from 4 to 10 to cover any shortfall.

Guest: Do you see Pratto and Witt being promoted to Triple A this year?
Keith Law: Witt yes. Pratto maybe.
Keith Law: Witt will be up in September. I don’t have inside info; I’m just speculating based on how they feel about him. And I’m in favor of the move.

Noah: What do you think about a Duran Duran cover band called Jarren Duran?  “His name Jarren and he bats with his left hand.” (to the tune of “Rio”)
Keith Law: Needs work.

buccoguin: Just curious what makes some questions attractive and others not?  What is your question to answer ratio?  Cheers
Keith Law: I am lucky if I answer 20% of what I get. I do try to answer questions I haven’t answered in articles already, though.

TomBruno23: My son is in a 6U league and is showing pretty strong exit velocity and launch angle. One more game on the slate if you want to hit up the Ballwin Athletic Association Field #7 later this afternoon.
Keith Law: I heard his makeup is terrible.

James: I’ve seen most people speculating Rocker’s ETA as 2022. Can you elaborate on how himself and his situation differs from Crochet who was able to be a bullpen piece for the Sox down the stretch of his draft year
Keith Law: Because Rocker is a starter and Crochet is a reliever.

Finny: What’s up with Jesus Luzardo? He has been a hot mess, even after his demotion. Is it mechanical? Lost confidence? Or is he just not as good as we thought?
Keith Law: He’s good when healthy, but is infrequently healthy. Maybe he’s just not 100% right now, but not hurt enough for the IL?

Robbie: Not much of a question – but have to see this all star week as a monumental success for the future of the MLB. While Manfred and other’s try and hold back the game, the younger generation of the game puts baseball in the best place that it has been in in a long time. Ohtani’s all star jersey is up for auction for over 100K!
Keith Law: Yes. And I think the draft event was a big success.

TJ: Klaw, working under the presumption that both Jobe and Mayer have similar odds of success, why would a team pick a player who contributes once every five days over one who contributes every day?
Keith Law: A starting pitcher has several times more impact on his days than a position player does on any one of his days.

frank: SSS aside, Based on the reports about volpe, do you think he would have gone higher in the draft?
Keith Law: No. He didn’t show these tools in HS – especially not the speed – and that class of HS position player has historically been disdained by scouts/directors. Now this year it’s different. I wonder if him going off and Nick Yorke holding his own is causing the pendulum to swing too far the other way. We can be sheep sometimes.

Johann Sebastian Vogelbach: This is from a bit out of left field but am I crazy for thinking “innings” limits are a bit silly when what should really be tracked are total pitches? Am I thinking far too much into it or is it likely teams are aware that pitches more precisely capture workload instead of innings
Keith Law: Teams use pitch counts. And more.

Ryan: MLB.com said that Lawlar was the highest ranked player on the Dbacks board. Have you heard if this is true?
Keith Law: Yes, I’m 99% sure that’s right.

Taylor: Is Jordan Lawlar the Dbacks highest upside position player since Justin Upton? Also, Kevin Goldstein said that Lawlar night be a tough sign and there’s concerns he may go to Vanderbilt. Have you heard these signability concerns with him?
Keith Law: I wrote about those concerns before the draft – that if he didn’t go 6th, he might go to school.

Mike: You still wear husky sized jeans ?
Keith Law: Someone clearly has no idea what I look like.

Nate: What position do you like bubba Chandler at? Should the pirates let him pitch and hit for at least a couple of years?
Keith Law: Pitcher. Don’t fuck around with two-way stuff. Just let these kids learn one thing.

Jay: Has Biden being President caused noticeable traffic issues for you in Wilmington with frequent visits?
Keith Law: We do get JoeJams near here sometimes.
Keith Law: It’s only on certain weekends, though, and you just avoid 141 & Barley Mill road. You see the electronic signs that say “NO DRONES” and you know Joe’s home.
Keith Law: I’ve got to run, but thank you all for the questions and for the kind words on my writeups this week. Stay safe!