Starting at 1:30 pm ET. Subscribers to The Athletic can read my entire prospect rankings package, including the top 100 prospects, the ten guys who just missed, my farm system rankings, and my top 20 prospects & org reports for all 30 teams.

Keith Law: I started drifting to a different place. Klawchat.

Ben (MN): I’m traveling for work but have one free day in San Diego. Any food recommendations?
Keith Law: The Crack Shack, Juniper & Ivy, Bird Rock Coffee, The Mission.

Brett: FYI, Petty up to 99 in Reds camp today.  Good early sign but increases injury risk as well I suppose…the baseball gods giveth and taketh.  Thank you for all you do especially with the mental health side of things.  It’s so important to make people feel like it is OK to get help, that nothing is wrong with them.  I am in healthcare and have been getting mental health services since Covid in part because of your example.  My life is much better for it, thank you…
Keith Law: He just hasn’t held that velocity as a starter for two years now. I did have delivery concerns with him in HS when he was 97-100 or so, but he toned that down last year. And you’re welcome – I probably should be talking about that stuff even more.

Joe: The Dodgers gave up two players with some value for Trey Sweeney, so I was surprised that he didn’t get a mention in the LA write up.  Do you think they did the trade because they needed the roster spots, or do they see something you don’t?
Keith Law: Maybe they see something they can do with the swing, but I just don’t think he’s anything but an up-and-down guy. He would have made a lot of top 20s, just not the Dodgers’.

SamStead: Hi Keith! Do you think Brett Baty settles into an above-average regular at 3B? What’s his outlook? Thanks!
Keith Law: The bat will be. The glove is debatable but I would let him stay there for now.

Mike: What do you make of the Brewers trying Frelick out at 2B/3B? Is it a move because of a crowded OF or more of an indictment of their options in the infield?
Keith Law: Chourio’s got the contract, Mitchell can play center, Black could play center if you can live with the arm … I think this is about getting Frelick into the lineup.

Guest: Chances Jett Williams gets called up before the AS break? I think the kid is legit.
Keith Law: I’d say zero. He’s barely 20 and has 6 games above A-ball. Also they have this guy at shortstop, you may have heard of him…

Chris: Keith, you wrote that Wilyer Abreu might be a 4-WAR player if he sticks in Center. If he can’t handle Center and ends up in Right, what’s the equivalent of that? I assume that’s still a productive regular, just not a star?
Keith Law: Yep, spot on.

Richard: You rock Keith! Very much appreciate the effort you put into the prospect / org rankings…it’s the primary reason I have the Athletic each year.
Keith Law: Thank you! It’s exhausting but now it’s all on the site and I can turn the page to the draft.

Adam: Is Michael Harris better than you expected? If so what did you miss?
Keith Law: I don’t think so … I might have been light on the contact, as he’s not striking out as much as I’d feared given his mediocre pitch recognition.

Jason: when will the corporate welfare for stadiums end? now the dbacks want to hold phoenix hostage on a 26 year old stadium
Keith Law: When voters consistently tell these owners to fuck off – and tell their legislators the same – the corporate welfare will end. if your state rep/senator votes for one of these handouts, you vote against them.

Tom: I really enjoy your podcasts on the athletic! Are you doing more anytime soon?
Keith Law: Nothing imminent.

Preston: At what point will any of the Boras Four just tell him to get a deal done? I presume they are along for the ride but can’t imagine they would want to go too long, right?
Keith Law: They know the deal. Scott gets his guys paid in the end, but it can take a while. You choose him as your agent, you’re signing up for this.

Bobby B.: Thoughts on Puerto Rico? Obviously an older board game, but imo one of the greats
Keith Law: Agreed it’s one of the greats, looking forward to the revised edition some time this spring.

Troy: Was Robert Gasser anywhere near the Top 100?
Keith Law: He was not.

Morgan: Who are a few prospects you see shooting up the rankings for 2025?
Keith Law: For every team, I included a Sleeper prospect, who is someone not currently on the top 100 but who I predict will make the top 100 next offseason. I think I had 6-7 guys do that this year (and I promise I’m not juking the stats – I don’t put guys on the 100 just to make myself right!).

Garrett: I loved this line in your assessment of Elijah Green (while also being said this has to be said now): “We can’t draft and develop this type of player as an industry if MLB prevents teams from giving them the development challenges they need.”
Keith Law: People often ask what rule change I would make if I were Commissioner. It would be allowing teams to operate a short-season affiliate if they want to. I’m pretty confident 20+ teams would choose yes.
Keith Law: This chat is brought to you by Oreos. They didn’t sponsor it. I’m just eating Oreos right now.

Guest: So glad to have KLawchats back. Just passing along a note, that while you don’t write your lists for fantasy baseball, many of us subscribers do love to use them to advise our fantasy decisions. While I get the timing of releasing the lists post Super Bowl, many of us would get more value from them earlier prior to our early February drafts. Appreciate the work.
Keith Law: Thank you. That decision was made above my head.

Mike: Hi Klaw, tough 2023 for former Dbacks prospect Ryne Nelson. Do you think he can become a viable number 4ish starting pitcher still for them?
Keith Law: I do. Might give him a half year or more in long relief this year.

Alex: Have you seen the new Master and Margarita movie?  I haven’t yet, and the book has always struck me as kind of unfilmable.
Keith Law: A reader told me about it the other day but I haven’t seen anything about it otherwise, and I agree, it always seemed like it would lose way too much on the screen.

Holly: On the Nats’ writeup, no mention of Mason Denaburg.   Is he still a prospect at all?
Keith Law: He walked 49 guys in 36 innings in low A last year, mostly in relief. I imagine he’s a release candidate at this point.

Alex: Can’t say I was surprised by Atlanta’s ranking – as you said, they traded everybody. On the other hand, as an Atlanta fan, it seems to me that you’re *supposed* to trade your prospects to improve the major league roster. Are there any of Atlanta’s major moves that you would seriously question?
Keith Law: I think giving up Malloy for Joe Jimenez was an overpay. And I believe I said at the time that I wasn’t convinced Sean Murphy would be better than William Contreras, certainly not enough to justify trading everything they did. But overall, no, I think Anthopoulos has done an excellent job, including his big trades.

Tom: Can you give some detailed thoughts on the Red Sox royals Schreiber trade?
Keith Law: The David Sandlin prospect writeup is now in the Red Sox top 20. No-brainer trade for them.

RC: Two completely unrelated questions for you…
1) What level of panic would you have if you were Mike Elias regarding the rotation regarding Bradish and Means? Is it worth shelling out money for another starter or making another trade?
2) I’m considering a job offer in Newark, Delaware. How do you like living in the state? What would you recommend for food and activities for a second visit on home scouting?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t panic, but they still have more position players in AAA/majors than they can use and I would at least see what trading some combination of them – Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Westburg, etc. – might get back in a starter. More worried about Bradish.

As for Delaware, it’s great overall. Lots to do here, great little downtown in Wilmington with some fantastic restaurants (Bardea, Le Cavalier, La Fia, two food halls), two art-house cinemas, two venues for concerts and traveling theater, low cost of living for the mid-Atlantic. Public schools are underfunded, though, and there hasn’t been great appetite to remedy that. Check out Winterthur, Longwood Gardens (just over the line in PA), & the Nemours Estate.

Egan: What are you expectations for Brandon Barriera this year development wise? Future rotation arm?
Keith Law: Let’s see how the body looks. Had high upside in 2022, has supposedly shed most of the extra weight he put on last year, but when a guy lets himself go like that I want to see the commitment to his conditioning.

John Sterling: (on the Dominguez v Spencer Jones question) I know you avoid being influenced by other expert rankings, but I know you also do take in information from other analysts/experts. Help me understand why there seems to be some uncommon divergence about two high profile prospects in same org who both spent most of last summer in the Somerset Patriots outfield. Thanks.
Keith Law: I assume we’re valuing different things.

DH: Suppose Samuel Basallo were a solid average defensive 1B, and not a catcher. Where do you suppose he’d rank in top 100?
Keith Law: Middle, probably 40-60 range.

Adam D.: Obviously without naming names, have you ever found yourself gravitating away from a scouting source after too many reports that turned out to be mostly untrue?
Keith Law: Yes.

JW: Have contracts to pre-arb players started to turn in the direction that they aren’t actually good for teams? The news of the potential Alvarez extension got me thinking that the Mets would need to be getting so much value on the back end to give up the cheap early years. They way they are structured based on actual cash basically aligns with what these guys would be making anyway, so all the teams are actually getting is the ability to have the player for more prime years without having to commit to post prime years (the value of which we dont know yet), but the cost of that is giving up years where they are actually cheap (the value of which we do know). Am I over thinking this?
Keith Law: I don’t think the early year salaries in those deals are close to high enough to make these a negative for the teams. If they’re right, they’re getting like $30 million of production (or more) for $2 million.

Andrew: Anything in Elly’s rookie year that makes you concerned about him long-term? Is it all about contact with him?
Keith Law: Yes, primarily about contact. Could end up in CF rather than SS but I expect he’d be plus there.

Bobby: Who do you predict will win ROY in NL and AL?
Keith Law: I’ll do full predictions in late March when we see who’s actually getting the playing time. Just a stab right now, I’d say Caminero and Noelvi.

dallas: Do you believe there is a flaw in stockpiling middle infield prospects like the pirates and Cleveland have done over the years? It seems like (with PGH) especially all their minor leaguers have the same profile.
Keith Law: There’s no flaw in that specifically, but maybe there’s a flaw if they’re all 5’7″ and unlikely to stay at short?

Robert: Putting aside the economics of whether or not public financing of sports stadiums makes sense, what do you think of White Sox ownership asking the public for $1 billion to pay for a new stadium, when they are one of only two franchises who’ve never offered a $100M contract to a player?
Keith Law: I don’t see a connection between those two. The purpose of public subsidies for private enterprise is economic development, not helping the team win. The economic development doesn’t justify the subsidies, of course, but that’s a separate question.

DH: Did his first year performance decrease Volpe’s best-case ceiling for you?
Keith Law: No. He didn’t belong in the majors to start the year.

Pool: Who is the international prospect that will be stateside for the first time this season that you are most excited to get eyes on?
Keith Law: Felnin Celesten.

Morgan (NY): You buying into Stanton’s body transformation as a harbinger of athleticism and renewed success at the plate?
Keith Law: No, it’s a function of health, not conditioning.

James: It’s spring training. I’m in the worst shape of my life. Any thought as to why the Boras 4 hasn’t signed yet? Can the Cubs really go with PCA and Morel at 3B instead of Bellinger/Chapman and expect to contend?
Keith Law: Yes, they can expect to contend in that division. I have a feeling they end up re-signing Bellinger though.

James: Ever play Code Names? We’ve been playing it a lot lately, lots of fun.
Keith Law: Yes, solid party game. Not my favorite of the genre but I’ll always play it.

Marlins Fan: Marlins have a bunch of (very) young and raw 18/19 year old pitchers outside of Meyer/White like Juan De La Cruz, Walin Castillo, Karson Milbrandt, Julio Mendez, Lester Nin, Damelvi Tineo. Any of those that you like outside of De La Cruz who you ranked fairly high?
Keith Law: Milbrandt was up there too.

Guest: I assume Caleb Durbin and Tyler Hardman are nothing more than org players? The latter not even getting an NRI is a bad sign.
Keith Law: that’s how I view them.

Neal: The Phillies can’t possibly consider extending Bryce Harper can they?
Keith Law: I hope not, he’s tall enough as it is.

kevin: surprised to see Jake Gelof blurb about him just being a corner OF. Is 3B not possible any longer? thanks!
Keith Law: Don’t see him every sticking at third.

Bobby: You are higher on Cam Collier than most. I have him on my dynasty baseball team. Just curious, why should I stay optimistic with him despite a lackluster 2023. I know he’s obviously young, but what is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Middle-of-the-order bat ceiling. Started the year slow as he had a lot of adjustments to make, but improved substantially as the season went on – and was only 18, younger than some high school draftees last year.

Zak: What’s the next rule change you’d like to see implemented at the MLB level?
Keith Law: ABS is coming eventually, but in the meantime just raising the bottom of the strike zone slightly would probably get us a lot more balls hit into play.

Troy: Donaldson over Black last season. This season it doesn’t appear he’ll have a starting job to start the season. Does Black need more time in AAA? Seems odd the Brewers aren’t carving out a spot for him. Even if it’s super utility guy.
Keith Law: He can’t throw enough for third so I’m not sure what their intention is, with Frelick perhaps getting the nod at second.

Brent: Noah Schultz is an exciting prospect for the White Sox. Seems like the biggest concern for him is health. If he can pitch like he did for 120 plus innings instead of 20 something. Can he become the team’s top prospect next year? Thanks.
Keith Law: Yes, but he ended the year on the IL with a shoulder impingement so I doubt they push his workload that much.

James: Was looking at the 2016 draft. Will Smith the only all star in the first 41 picks before round 2 which has three all stars and round 3 which also has three. Two best players (Burnes, Bieber) went in round four. Was that just an odd year? I feel like normally teams nail at least half the top ten picks
Keith Law: Yes, that year’s draft wasn’t great at the time and it’s been awful in hindsight. Moniak, Senzel, Ray, Puk, Pint, Collins, Groome … yeeeeesh.

gach zreinke: Thoughts and timetable on Dodgers’ Hyun-Seok Jang?
Keith Law: Hasn’t thrown a pitch yet. I imagine we’ll all see him in spring training.

Mike: Is Colson Montgomery a middle of the order hitter on a contending team?
Keith Law: That would be his absolute ceiling – if he gets to his peak hit/power and also stays healthy. He just did not look right last year even after he returned, which is why I had him outside the top 25.

Mike B: Great job as always with the prospect lists.  So I know you didn’t have time yet for a full write up of the O’s/Brewers trade. Do you think this was the O’s finally doing a good job of digging into their prospect depth to get a top mitch pitcher?  I thought it was a good trade for both despite Yankees fans saying the O’s gave up less than the Yanks were asked for!
Keith Law: Yes, I think it was a good trade for both sides.

Guest: Everything I read about Wilken makes him sound like.a legit bat. Just on O, is he a Guy?
Keith Law: I think so.

Matt: Assuming Franco never plays again, are the Rays off the hook paying him?
Keith Law: If he’s in prison or simply unable to secure a work visa, yes, they’re off the hook.

kevin: what was the biggest reason for cartaya’s down season and is it fixable?
Keith Law: I asked a lot of people that question and the consensus answer was “I don’t know.” If he was hurt enough to destroy his performance, no one seems to know about it. It wasn’t an obvious failing, like an inability to hit a high fastball. People who loved him a year ago were befuddled too. That’s concerning because if you don’t know what’s wrong, you don’t necessarily know what to do next. I would return him to AA to start the year, at least.

CVD: Are the Lerners actually keeping the Nationals, or is this just posturing like Angelos did with the Orioles?
Keith Law: I assume this is posturing.

Caleb: Have you played any of the Wingspan expansions?  I have the Euro expansion and love the new birds, but I’m afraid the Oceania expansion (with Nectar) will change the mechanics too much.
Keith Law: I have not, unfortunately.
Keith Law: My Wyrmspan review copy is on its way, though!

Guest: Did the Padres ruin Luis Torrens?
Keith Law: Taking him in the rule 5 draft may have ruined him.

Hoobastank: Trying to make sense of the Tigers big improvement in farm rankings. Would you credit it mostly to the difference between how Harris and Co handle player development compared to Avila? Anything specific in differences? Such a huge turnaround, in a years time, all from guys drafted from the previous regime. Has to be one of the quickest impacts a new FO has a had on existing talent on a farm, no?
Keith Law: Strong draft, some big steps forward from guys in the system thanks to new PD folks, and a lot of other teams sliding due to promotions or other factors. I do think the minors as a whole are down – the #5 team this year might have been #8-10 a year ago.

James: You put so much work into these rankings and the draft. Are there any cheap teams that aggregate your and other’s thoughts, especially with the draft, since it’s such a crap shoot? Or could your thoughts on someone like Owen Caissie be used for/against them in trade discussions?
Keith Law: I know teams that take my rankings, MLB’s, BA’s etc. for the draft and use them in their draft models. I always say that’s not the purpose of the rankings, but I can’t stop them from doing so.

Jay: Atlanta is stretching out Reynaldo Lopez in the Spring. Any chance he can stick as a starter?
Keith Law: He’s never had the arsenal or command to start. He can hold his velocity deep into games, but that’s never been enough for me to consider him a starter – I got a ton of grief for leaving him off my top 100 for that reason.

Shodai: Who would you rather have starting in CF in 2025- PCA or Cody Bellinger ignoring salary?
Keith Law: I’ll go on a limb here and say Bellinger.

Ryan: Assuming he stays healthy and remains a starting pitcher, how long will it take to build Reggie Crawford up until he is MLB ready?
Keith Law: Feels like it could be two more years in the minors, no? He barely pitched this past year coming off TJ and never pitched that much before.

Brian: Who are some former prospects who’ve faded that you anticipate a breakout for this year? Last year you called Leody Taveras and Cole Ragans. Alek Thomas? Brett Baty?
Keith Law: I’ll do the breakouts list in mid-March – I haven’t thought much about that piece yet.

Brian: Who was your biggest disappointment when doing the rankings? Was there one player going in you thought would have had a bigger impact in 2023 and would be a star that just didn’t materialize?
Keith Law: Cartaya was originally on the list in the 70s or so, but as I circulated it to sources & also considered him further I realized I had no argument to put him on the list except that he was on it last year.

James: Who would you have taken 1-1 in the last draft?
Keith Law: Crews or Langford. Not a pitcher.

Ryan: Your report on Jun-Seok Shim was really encouraging. Do you have any additional info or that you could share?
Keith Law: I don’t hold information back. It’s all in the articles.

Andrew: Cleveland traded Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers. Why’d they do that? And has Clev. turned into a sneaky bad FO? Caminero, Nolan Jones, and Yandy would look pretty good in that lineup.
Keith Law: Brito’s going to be good and I don’t think Jones has that kind of year if he’s not playing at altitude. I think they didn’t know what they had in Caminero and the Rays out-scouted them. (Cleveland has cut its scouting staff, and that may be hurting them.)

Adam D.: Love the sleeper note on Rayner Arias potentially making a big jump. Am I crazy to think that this time next year the Giants could have five top-100 players (Eldridge, Arias, Whisenhunt, Martin and Crawford)?
Keith Law: Seems really optimistic on the last two. Maybe one of them gets there, but both is a lot to ask.

Steve: Is there any hope left for Luis Patiño ?
Keith Law: I’d still take a flier on him.

James: Who has better chance of winning the pennant again? Dbacks or Rangers?
Keith Law: Rangers but if I were betting I’d bet the field instead.

James: Is Lawlar blocked? Is he better than Perdomo? Will Lawlar start at AAA?
Keith Law: Perdomo shouldn’t block Lawlar when they believe Lawlar is ready.

Jason: what is the ceiling with jackson chourio? given all the factors (his deal, etc) should he be on the MLB club opening day?
Keith Law: I would really rather they give him time in AAA, now with no pressure around a call-up since he’s getting paid regardless. I think he’s going to be a superstar – a top 10 player in MLB at his peak.

Brian: Do you ever discuss your sources with other prospect writers? I’m curious how secretive the world is/isn’t when you all know the same people (and most say they cross reference lists with scouts), and how that plays into the differential product of the lists.
Keith Law: Not names, necessarily, but I might say “the Mets told me” something when talking to Eric or Jonathan.

Red: What are your thoughts on the Fanatics jersey fiasco? Seems like everyone agrees that they are crap.
Keith Law: Not really my lane but they did look bad.

Chris: Keith – we just heard another sob story for a billionaire owner (this time out of Arizona) laying the groundwork for extending a hand out to taxpayers to fund a stadium deal that (i) isn’t necessary, and (ii) will NOT create any economic benefit for the community. It seems like a simple solution is for Congress to make the anti-trust exemption conditioned on no public financing for stadiums. For every senator that accepts money from wealthy owners that is impacted with the prospect of security a MLB franchise in her or his home state, there’s another that is impacted by a franchise leaving. Not necessary a question, but more of a commentary. /fin
Keith Law: You’ll never get this to happen, though. MLB lobbies Congress and there is no real opposing entity pushing money into DC like that.

James: Will Skenes debut this year?
Keith Law: I imagine so.

Bobby: Thoughts on Jung Hoo Lee? Probably harder to scout international guys but you would have more information than the average American fan has access to
Keith Law: I wrote about him and the signing here.

Blood on the Tracks: Chase Burns or Brody Breckt?
Keith Law: I saw Brecht Friday, think I’d lean Burns.

James: Was Gabe Kapler a good manager? I feel like the giants were always over performing
Keith Law: I think he was. He got fired for failing to overperform last year.

AnalyticsPlant: Klaw – your prospect work seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train. Why are you so popular?
Keith Law: I am not contaminating the planet.

Dave: The Pirates handling of Henry Davis seems … odd? He struggled in right field with minimal experience at the position, which seemed to carry over to the plate. With Endy hurt, it looks like he would catch but is now fighting for a backup role behind Grandal. What would you do with him this season?
Keith Law: Catch him every day. I’d be surprised if he really was the backup behind Grandal – I haven’t heard/read anything about that, and Grandal was below replacement level last year.

Matt: I thought it was funny the 49ers didn’t know the rules of overtime. Imagine that happening in the 10th inning of Game 7 and the closer didn’t know the game would be over if he gave up a hit.
Keith Law: Same.

Aaron: The Oceania expansion mechanics updates are very nice and go a long way to balancing actions on the board. Egg spamming is not quite as viable
Keith Law: And Asia has a two-player mode I’d love to try.

Ryan: Speaking of Padres and Luis. Is Campusano just another example of catchers needing more time to develop?
Keith Law: I think so.

Gsteve27: I know u often remind the listeners/readers that baseball is hard but what do you think was the cause for Gavin Stones and Miguel Vargas disappointing season after having a lot of success in the minors? Are you still believing in Vargas as you are in Stone?
Keith Law: Read what I wrote about Stone in the top 100.

James: Hunter Goodman from the Rockies just a guy? Could he be a GUY?
Keith Law: He’s 1b only, maybe, and swings and misses way too often. I don’t see it.

James: Are you surprised more teams haven’t used the Braves strategy more of locking up young players to long deals early?
Keith Law: Oh I think a lot of them try.

James: Does the transfer portal influence the way you look at a player or not or are baseball evaluations mostly immune to that?
Ryan: What’s a reasonable MLB peak for Ethan Salas look like, assuming he gets past the inherent teenager catcher risk?
Keith Law: Transfer portal doesn’t affect player evaluations – I have no issue with players moving to another school for NIL $ or playing time or any other reason.
Keith Law: Salas looks like a monster, could be ++ defense with power and patience. We haven’t had a prospect this young with this performance since Harper.

Brian: Can we expect more Klawchats soon?
Keith Law: I plan to, travel permitting.

Caleb: Cards fan, and they have the #8 pick this summer.  I’m going to guess this year’s top 10 isn’t as loaded as last year’s, but how does it compare to an average draft?
Keith Law: Right now it looks below the norm because the high school hitting class is very weak.

Adam: Hey Keith. Thank you for all your work. It’s always a fun time when your lists come out. Have you ever thought about compiling a ranking of your sleepers that you do for each team? Would be interested in the their order of where you see them ranked against each other.
Keith Law: All 30 sleepers ranked? I had never considered that.

AJ: Vlad Jr. settling in as a .270, 30 HR guy would be a bummer after what he did in 2021. Do you give him a mulligan for the last 2 years? Or did he just have his career year early? Troy Glaus style
Keith Law: A two-year mulligan is a lot. Kind of stunned by the low BABIPs. Not like he doesn’t hit the ball hard. His actual stats were well below what  you’d expect from his batted-ball data, so there’s some reason to hope he’ll bounce back beyond just a .270/.340/.460 line.

Jay: Who would you take 1.1 in this year’s draft as of today?
Keith Law: The most honest answer is that I don’t have enough feel for these guys yet. If you really, really want a name, I think it’s Wetherholt, who also left last night’s game with a hamstring injury so I may have to wait a bit to see him.

Shodai: Last year there were a lot of negative opinions out on Miguel Amaya, did his MLB stint help answer any of those questions for him going forward? Also do you ever randomly wonder what Junior Lake is up to these days? #callback
Keith Law: Last year, I wrote this: “he could end up the Cubs’ catcher before the year is out as a 20-homer type with some patience and better defense than Willson Contreras offered.” Probably too high on the power, but I think the rest is going to turn out to be right.

Steven: Any thoughts on Jason Benneti moving to Detroit broadcast team?
Keith Law: He’s one of the best. Glad he found a good spot.

Ryan: Only two years for Crawford? That surprises me because like you said, he has barely pitched. Thanks for the work you do!
Keith Law: I imagine they’ll try to get him 15-20 starts this year for 60-80 innings, then bump him up some more in 2025, and in 2026 hope to get him to the majors – unless they want to make him a straight reliever before that.
Keith Law: Of course that assumes he performs well. Has the stuff, certainly.

Guest: When talking to people, why do they value prospects over actual MLB talent. One guy told me he likes Jackson Holliday over Bo Bichette…isn’t Bichette Holliday’s peak??
Keith Law: I think Holliday can be better than Bichette, but how I value the two would depend on the team. Are you trying to win in 2024? You’d rather have Bichette.
Keith Law: I think Holliday will be better than Bichette, to be clear.

David: What should the Red Sox starting OF be this year if you had your pick?
Keith Law: Abreu, Rafaela, Duran, with Yoshida DHing?

Richard: Excited that we get to see Yainer Diaz catch most days (so long Maldy!). What kind of output do you think is reasonable for him as an everyday guy?
Keith Law: .270/.300/.475, 20 homers or so?

Harold: Although it would be hard to gather the data to answer this definitively, what percentage of the time does a pitcher, such as Bradish, end up requiring TJ after a UCL sprain that they try to remedy through PRP?
Keith Law: I don’t know if anyone knows the answer to this, but that players try PRP because it’s not major surgery and in most aspects of life you pick the non-surgical option first before the surgical one.

J.P.: Thoughts on Dom Smith’s signing? Here I thought Busch was all set to play 1B for the Cubs, and now he’s as blocked as he was with the Dodgers, apparently.
Keith Law: The Cubs signed Smith to a minor-league deal. He’s not blocking Busch.

Zane: I feel like the Reds have a slew of talented young international prospects. Who is your favorite out of Carlos Jorge, Hector Rodriguez, Alfredo Duno, and Ricardo Cabrera?
Keith Law: That’s answered in the Reds top 20 – it’s the guy I ranked highest.

Sammy: Thoughts on Colt Keith this year? Will he be able to handle 2B?
Keith Law: I think his bat will play anywhere and second base might be a challenge for him, at least in the short term.
Keith Law: I know scouts who think he should just play first base and rake. I’m not there yet.

James: If you notice a player in another club is undervalued like the Rays did, how do you go after them without tipping the other team off?
Keith Law: Subtlety. It’s a negotiation – you don’t tip off the other side to what you really want, and you might ask for more (give us Brayan Rocchio!) and when they laugh, you say “oh okay fine we’ll take some rando off your DSL roster.”

Guest: Hey Keith, reading through the Rockies Top 20 right now and truly blown away by how bad they’ve been drafting in the first round. All of Veen, Montgomery and Hughes showing real signs of missing. This has been a long-running issue with the team, it feels like. What strikes you as the issue? Scouting, development, pure dumb luck?
Keith Law: Hughes got hurt – different than the other two, although Veen’s had injuries too. But I don’t see Hughes as a bust at all.

Sammy: Amed Rosario just signed with TB- what does that mean..
Keith Law: He’s about to have the best year of his career?

Woodsy: I, too, am traveling to for work, but going to Atlanta. Any food recommendations? Thanks, KLaw!
Keith Law: I haven’t had a regular dinner in Atlanta in some time, although I love Ponce City Market (Spiller Park for coffee) and Krog Street Market. A few of my ATL favorites have closed, including Empire State South and the Lawrence.

James: We are somehow even more divided politically that four years ago. Any chance a player wouldn’t sign with a TX/CA team because of their political beliefs?
Keith Law: Haven’t heard of that, although I can imagine someone not wanting to raise their daughters in Texas (or, if there were a team there, in Alabama).

Chris: Manfred seems pretty intelligent and self aware. But every time he opens his mouth when asked to comment on the A’s move to Las Vegas, he seems petty, dismissive, and completely out of touch, particularly when it comes to empathizing with Oakland fans. Is he that beholden to ownership where he can’t even seem to acknowledge reality?
Keith Law: I think Manfred doesn’t have an ‘inside voice,’ so to speak. He doesn’t soften the message or speak in platitudes when talking to the public – which on the one hand is refreshing, even though it’s also rather telling.

Matt: Even the mayor of Vegas thinks the A’s should go back to Oakland. Is Vegas a long term answer for a MLB team?
Keith Law: I do not think Las Vegas will ever be a good market for MLB. It doesn’t have the population/demographics for 81 home games, and climate change is only going to make it harder to play or live there. There are other markets with more favorable characteristics, including Nashville, Portland, and Austin.

Ty: what pitch data stats do you look at when compiling your lists?
Keith Law: Not to be glib, but everything I can get my hands on. I want to know everything I can, and then I try to work from the facts – data, scouting reports, my own observations – to the conclusion.

Guest: Should the Tigers have taken Jenkins?
Keith Law: They should have taken Langford, although that in no way is a knock on Clark (or Jenkins).

Ben (MN): Is there any trustable data on how much money MLB teams make per season? Reporters discuss the Twins receiving a lower payment from their TV deal this season as if the team would be operating at a “loss” by maintaining the same payroll as last year. I find it hard to believe that they are breaking even in a normal year and that any increased expenses would mean a loss. Wouldn’t a lower TV payment  but a similar payroll likely mean the team just makes less of a profit for this one year?
Keith Law: I do not believe any MLB team is actually operating at a loss. You can make a paper loss on your income statement but these businesses generate stupid amounts of cash.

Morgan: First time in Savannah and Charleston. 2 days each. What are some can’t miss things?
Keith Law: Was just in Charleston over the weekend. Finally ate at FIG, which was a bucket-list place for me. Best part was actually the sticky sorghum pudding dessert.

JRG: Thanks for all the writeups on prospects. There are a number of guys who seem to have all the tools, but just never can put it together. Over the course of your career, what was the best example of a guy that didn’t seem like he would put it together, but then everything finally clicked for him and he made the leap?
Keith Law: Josh Hamilton’s probably not the best answer, although his name was the first to come to mind. I’ll have to think about this one as I can’t find a really apt example.

ZAS: Do you expect Cleveland to be aggressive and try to get Deyvsion De Los Santos AB’s? I assume Manzardo will be forced to start the year in AAA although I feel like he’s ready.
Keith Law: I don’t think Deyvison is going to hit at all. He wasn’t even a top 20 guy for Arizona and wasn’t on my Guardians list. I really am not a fan.

Thai: Where in the top 100 would Roki Sasaki rank if he was eligible?
Keith Law: He’s not eligible and I haven’t given him anywhere near the consideration I gave all the guys I did put on the rankings (or just beyond it).

Leonard: Does Taj Bradley have enough effective pitches to solidify a spot in the TB rotation>
Keith Law: Yes.

Shodai: Speaking of Manfred and things that are bad for baseball, where would you put the odds of an industry shaking gambling scandal in the next 10 years of so? Based on other sports I’d say it’s a dead lock that some players are gonna get popped but I’m worried about something bigger.
Keith Law: 100% chance some player gets suspended for betting on games. Maybe 25% chance of a broader scandal. We have had a few scouts get caught up in gambling stuff, back in the early 2000s. The pervasive nature of sports betting now just makes it way more likely we have problems.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week but yes I do hope to do these more regularly again now that the top 100 is behind me. Thank you all for reading and for your questions. Stay safe!

My most recent post at the Athletic covered most of the prospects I saw in the Arizona Fall League last week.

Keith Law: I built this thing for you. Klawchat.

TomBruno23: What role, if any, should the Democrats play in helping to solve the issue of the next Speaker?
Keith Law: None. Not their circus. Let the other side struggle.

Sam: Any good food recommendations in the Raleigh area?
Keith Law: Bharvana Brewery, MOFU, Beasley’s, Poole’s Diner, Jubala Coffee.

mac: Is there a systemic problem in the yankees’ approach to hitter development? Do you see Volpe, Peraza, Pereira, and others’ helplessness against major league breaking balls as linked or coincidental?
Keith Law: I don’t see the link other than that two of those guys (Volpe and Pereira) were promoted to the majors before they were ready. I think Volpe will adjust. Pereira was having trouble with contact in the minors so the promotion was pretty risky.

Dave: Does the tremendous success of Jackson Holliday impact how teams view his brother, Ethan?
Keith Law: Yes, naturally, but I’m not sure that it should. It’s just human nature to assume they’ll follow similar paths. Everything I’ve heard on Ethan is wildly positive, though, even before Jackson became the #1 pick in 2022.

Ian: What in the world is going on with the Red Sox?
Keith Law: I have no idea. Some of the names that have been floated have been … uninspired?

Chuck: Glad to see you posting on Bluesky a bit. With Twitter suppressing links and non-blue checks, it’s become increasingly useless. The conversation on Bluesky seems like Twitter 10 years ago.
Keith Law: I’m on Bluesky more than any other place because of what you just said – there’s some actual conversation, and a lot of my favorite Twitter follows migrated there already. I’m still on Threads and Spoutible as well. I’m not that invested in any particular site taking off, but I want to be where you folks are.

Alex: Maybe too long for a chat, or maybe not possible with publicly available data, but… while your player analysis is franchise-agnostic, is it possible to apply sabermetric analysis to team-level competencies? E.g. we know that Cleveland and Los Angeles have a track record of success at improving pitchers in their farm system. Tampa is *really* good at assembling a bullpen. How rigorous can we get in analyzing those kinds of skills?
Keith Law: We do know these things, but they’re also quite subject to change – if one particular coach leaves an org, do they take that competency with them? I don’t view any of those things as permanent to a specific club.

Sedona: hey Keith, I enjoyed your read on the MVP predictions. Too bad we couldn’t get your thoughts on NL ROY. Wanted to see your thoughts on Nolan Jones. He’s shown even splits home and away as well as righty vs. lefty (very unusual). He’s gonna strike out a ton, but hits for a high avg. What to make of this? The next CGON?
Keith Law: I’m not really buying that as sustainable … there’s still a ton of swing and miss there even with the benefit of altitude. He had a .401 BABIP this year! I do think the L/R evenness is a function of playing half his games in Denver, so the LH breaking stuff that gave him trouble in AAA isn’t breaking as well, giving him more of a chance. I think he’s a useful but flawed player.

Bret: Have you seen Jung Hoo Lee play enough to have an opinion on his MLB potential?
Keith Law: He’ll be on my free agent rankings later this month.

Greg: I just can’t imagine Vaughn Grissom is in the Atlanta organization next year. What would his value be in a trade? Could he bring back a controllable starter like Cease?
Keith Law: By himself, no, but in a package, sure. He’s valuable – I think a lot of teams would see him as a future starter.

doug dennis: When might we expect an updated prospects list?  thank you for your work.
Keith Law: Prospect rankings will be in late January/early February.

Andrew: Any thoughts on the Tigers moving Jung to 3B, as has been reported? I was surprised because I thought Keith would play 3B and Jung 2B. Can either be an above average defender?
Keith Law: Keith probably ends up at 1b. I wish I’d see Jung play third in the AFL but he DH’d the one game I saw him play, and didn’t start the other two times I saw his team. It was not my most productive AFL trip with several days where all games were at the same time plus some odd lineup choices.

Ryan: Two part question. When do you see the Brewers bringing up Jackson Chourio, and when should they bring him up? I assume both answers will be sometime in 2024?
Keith Law: Yes to both. I wouldn’t rush him, and I don’t think they will since CF is one place where they have depth.

Louie: Do you think Tyler Stephenson has any trade value left after a pretty poor season both at the plate and behind the dish? With Reds bringing Luke Maile back, it feels like he could be on the way out.
Keith Law: I thought his 2021 was kind of his ceiling, but 2023 seems way below his true talent level. I’m shocked that he’s not making harder contact – that was his profile as a prospect, in HS and in the minors when healthy, a catcher who might be power over hit but you can live with that for that position. So yes, I think he has trade value, since there are always 6-8 teams looking for help behind the plate.

Marc: Keith, have you seen enough of Nick Gonzales to say he’s not a first division 2B? Not a big board game person but bought Lacrimosa based on your review and my wife and I love it. Anything you’d recommend that’s similar is style of play? Thanks!
Keith Law: I’m probably the wrong person to ask on Gonzales because I’ve always been a skeptic, at least since he signed; I took a fair bit of grief from Pirates fans for leaving him off my top 100 several times, but I saw below-average D and too much of a dead-pull approach. He needs to make several changes to be a regular. I’m thrilled you like Lacrimosa – check out Red Cathedral and Merv: Heart of the Silk Road.

Larry: Why don’t the Astros play Chas McCormick every day? 3.8 fWAR, above average vs lefties and righties. Am I missing something?
Keith Law: About ten years too young, maybe?
Keith Law: I don’t know any details, but I thought the Astros dismissing Sara Goodrum, kind of a rising star over there, when that system keeps kicking out players who exceed expectations was surprising, even before we consider the bad look of firing one of the highest-ranking women in any baseball ops department. She’d be a good hire for any team.

JJ Picollo: Is trading Salvador Perez to the White Sox an actual thing?
Keith Law: Why would the White Sox do that?

Matt C: Who is your preferred pitching prospect between Chase Hampton, Tekoah Roby, and Jairo Iriarte?
Keith Law: Roby.

Guest: I saw your report on Chase Delauter’s wonky swing mechanics. Do you think he gets exposed in AAA and MLB?
Keith Law: I think that’s the risk; it’s what several area scouts around here expected, given the hips and the swing and his tendency to cheat to get to good velo. I noted that there are guys who get away with suboptimal swings, so I don’t mean to say this is definitive, but I’m more worried about him getting exposed at those levels than other hitters of comparable performance and backgrounds.

James: Will Twitter still exist in 2 years?
Keith Law: Yes, but it’ll be like Gab or any of those other highly siloed right-wing sites.

Mike: Is Luis matos just a manny margot offensively? I want to think he has more pop but was curious on your thoughts
Keith Law: More raw power, yes. I thought Margot would hit for more average than he has – .274 is his season high – given his contact skills. Matos is similar in a few ways but he’s got more now power.

Jake: Michael Fulmer is going to miss 2024 with a UCL and is out of contract. If he filed for workers compensation to put some money in his pocket, do you think teams would retaliate against him over it?
Keith Law: I saw that news this morning and took him off my rough cut at a top 50 free agents – he was on the bubble – but I thought maybe someone signs him for two years.

Brian: Do you think the Phillies will resign Nola or will he leave?
Keith Law: I can not imagine they let him walk, especially if they get to the World Series again. They have to be so flush with cash, he’s their one FA of note (everyone loves Hoskins, but they just don’t need him), and you’ve seen the old Nola again the last two months.

Codey: Almost 1 year later. What would your update be to the DBacks BlueJays trade? Varsho/Moreno/Gurriel
Keith Law: AZ definitely ahead so far. Surprised Varsho regressed that much.
Keith Law: I had Moreno as a top 6 prospect in baseball before he came up, though, so I could have a little confirmation bias here.

Ryan: The Dbacks have a gaping hole at third base. The Rays have a ton of depth at third base (Paredes, Diaz, Caminero, Mead, and Aranda). They also have a need at shortstop right now. Does a trade involving Perdomo for Mead make sense for both teams?
Keith Law: Three months ago I would have said yes. After seeing Mead play defense in the big leagues, I’m less sure. The game sped up on him really quickly.

Brad: Would you have Schwarber in the leadoff spot if you were managing the Phillies?
Keith Law: No.

Mike: Dj herz looks like a weapon, but in what capacity? Not many bullpen arms throw only 92
Keith Law: Might throw a little harder in the pen. I think he’s a reliever, FB/CH only with deception, maybe he becomes a bulk guy who goes once through the order?

Codey: Why do you think prospects are going through the minors what feels like quicker than ever these days?
Keith Law: Great question without a single explanation. Some I think is teams realizing players can be ready sooner than the one-level-per-year norm. Some is teams realizing those players are cheaper than veterans – 80% of the production for 5% of the price. Some is the advent of better data that should help teams make better decisions (e.g., Boston promoting Roman Anthony to high A). But I also worry it will encourage MLB to further contract the minors.

Duncan: Do you think Alek Thomas will ever be a decent or better major league hitter?
Keith Law: Yes. He’s only 23 and boosted his contact quality quite a bit this year.

addoeh: If there is anything to change with regards to the wild card round, I would get rid of off days.  If there has to be double headers, so be it.  Thoughts?
Keith Law: Players hate doubleheaders – they’d oppose that. I sort of agree with you about off days in general … I think days without baseball are bad for the sport. This is one of our strongest times of year, with NHL/NBA barely starting, the NFL obviously there but in a quieter part of their season, and yet we just give away real estate with days that would never have games.

JR: Can you pray to the baseball gods we get some close postseason games and/or game 7s? This postseason has lacked much drama to date.
Keith Law: Some great individual games but I agree that we need a long series or two. TEX/HOU might go that way after last night. Houston’s bullpen remains ridiculous.

SJ: Any hope Elly stays at SS? If not, can he stick at 3B or will he follow his fellow Cruz Oneill to RF?
Keith Law: I give Elly a way better chance than Cruz.

Brad: Long time fan, love your work. Am I right to be very underwhelmed by the Chris Getz promotion seeing as how he had a major hand in making this roster what it is?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think he had anywhere near as much of a hand in the MLB roster as you seem to think. I’ll be very curious to see what he does with far more autonomy. He’s definitely a change from Williams/Hahn.

Codey: would any of next years top 100 ranked hire than this years Corbin Carroll or Gunnar Henderson to start this season?
Keith Law: I don’t know. Holliday is obviously still my #1, and he’s in that range too. I might have gone Carroll, Holliday, Henderson? Hard to say because we now have a year of big league data on two of those guys and they were, to use the technical term, fucking awesome./

George: Questions about two guys you didn’t touch on in your AFL article: Hassell and Herz from WSH. Whats your outlook on Hassell now, after almost a year and a half of poor performance following his hamate injury? and is there anything there with the crazy k/9 numbers with Herz?
Keith Law: Herz I just answered. Hassell has gone backwards, unfortunately. Maybe he just changed his approach too much because he didn’t have his hand strength back earlier in the year, but now he’s kind of stuck in the wrong gear.

David: How much do you care that the best baseball team each year is likely not going to win the World Series? Should we celebrate the best regular season teams more? Or should this whole debate just stop and we all just enjoy baseball?
Keith Law: You know what I’m going to say. Just enjoy the baseball. And by the way, is anyone really going to argue that the Phillies or Rangers or Astros aren’t actually the best team? They all look pretty damn good to me. Isn’t October as much about who’s got their A roster healthy as anything else?

Harry Potter: When evaluating a prospect, how do you factor in something like Tommy Troy playing most of the year with a broken foot? Or do you factor it in at all?
Keith Law: I always factor injuries into evaluations.

Codey: do you still believe in Drew Jones as a top flight prospect potential wise? Or has his struggles/ injuries since draft day scared you off of that?
Keith Law: I see a lower floor than I did before. I also know we haven’t seen him fully healthy since he signed.

Cwsoxfan: Please come to FPAZ, eventually. ?
Keith Law: First Pitch? It’s really too late for me to come to the fall league. By that point a lot of the better prospects are gone.

Brad: Everyone here in Chicago seems to believe that trading Burger is like trading Sosa or the cubs trading Lou Brock.  To me this is his ceiling and it’s about a 2 WAR player. What do you think?
Keith Law: Yeah the OBP problem really caps his ceiling. Nice player. If he turns into a star, I would say that wasn’t likely to happen in Chicago.

Jay: I wouldn’t say I struggle with mental health, but I can’t put the damn Twitter down and as a result I cannot get my mind off this dumpster fire of a country and world we’ve got here. Have you benefited from not being on Twitter as much as you used to, or do you just keep up with the shit show in other ways?
Keith Law: I’ve definitely been happier using it far less. Some fan of a specific team got mad because I tweeted about one bad strike call but not others, and it was just such a reminder of how stupid that site has become. (I was on a plane most of that day and happily offline.)

Dr Who: Do you have any thoughts on Kim Ng leaving the Marlins? I thought she was doing a pretty good job over there.
Keith Law: It sounds like she stood up for herself in the best possible way. The most concerning detail I’ve read is that the owner wouldn’t let her hire her own people for some scouting and PD jobs. If that’s true, then she’s not really the GM! I believe she’ll get another opportunity this winter or next. I’m not saying the glass ceiling is gone, but it’s cracked, at least.

Matt: Apologies if I missed your coverage on this, but curious about your thoughts on Rintaro Sasaki forgoing the NPB draft to play college baseball. Are there development advantages to going this route or is this more about earning potential?
Keith Law: He’ll get paid a lot sooner this way, assuming he stays healthy and performs as expected. I’m not sure we want a flood of Japanese and Korean amateurs coming here and damaging NPB/KBO, though. I’m all for players getting paid, but I don’t want to see two of the three strongest leagues in the world destabilized, either.

John: What is the deal with Andrew Vaughn? Seems to have actually taken a step backward this year. With his limited defensive value this worries me
Keith Law: He was one of my breakout picks for this year who plateaued instead. Really thought that approach from college would carry over to pro ball but he has never gotten the patience back.

Sedona: Is Jakob Marsee in consideration to make your top 100 on your  next update?
Keith Law: No.

Cwsoxfan: Will Montgomery / Ramos actually be the future of our MI? Thanks
Keith Law: I wouldn’t bet on either guy being in the middle infield

Rich Campbell: Do you play Immaculate Grid, Keith? If so, thoughts?
Keith Law: I do not, sorry.

John: Is Colson Montgomerys ceiling Seager? To me I see maybe a light Seager. Not as good defensively and not the same power but just solid all around. Agree?
Keith Law: Seager Lite is a good way to put it. I was a little disappointed to see Montgomery look less mobile in the field in the AFL.

George: Yohandy Morales really popped in pro-ball after the draft. Did you see enough for you to bump your evaluation on him?
Keith Law: No, a major college product going off in low A (where he spent the most time) isn’t that meaningful.

Matt: I went to Ocotillo last week on your recommendation. My friends were skeptical when I explained that a baseball analyst I had never met recommended it, but everyone loved it. Just wanted to say thank you.
Keith Law: Awesome – I haven’t been in some time and am glad to hear it lived up to what I wrote several years ago. I always run into this challenge in Arizona, where I want to revisit old favorites but feel compelled to try new places so I can write about them.

Adam D.: Obviously Reggie Crawford (pitching) and Bryce Eldridge (hitting) are far superior on one side of the ball than the other, but do you see any real issues with the Giants approach to at least give them each some chances to show what they can do on the other side? At what point in their development would you say doing so becomes detrimental?
Keith Law: Yes, it risks needless injury (more a concern for Eldridge) and takes time away from developing in the role where they’ll end up.

Jim: Keith, no skin in the game, but a follow-up to your Nolan Jones comments.  The Rockies AAA club plays at over 5,000 feet in ABQ (as are several other PCL cities), so wouldn’t the issues regarding breaking balls be at least as relevant, if not more so because of the talent level?
Keith Law: Jones spent 2022 in AAA in Columbus because he was still with the Guardians.

Codey: Do you think Ivan Melendez could grow into an every day 1B or DH at the MLB level? His power seems top of the charts
Keith Law: No, it’s way too power over hit.

Matt: Does it feel like Counsell is the likely guy for Mets skipper?
Keith Law: I don’t know any gossip on this but he’s done a great job in Milwaukee and really grew into the role. I was a big skeptic, and remain so with managers who have zero experience, but he’s a success story.

E: Trey Sweeney upside? Platoon type or something more?
Keith Law: Maybe? Or utility infielder? I’ve seen him a bunch the last two years and I don’t think there’s enough stick there for more.

Sam: If I offered you the choice between winning 54% of your games every season for a decade (and the corresponding chance at winning a WS) or a decade with a guaranteed title and 9 years of 2023 A’s performance, which one would you pick?
Keith Law: Flags fly forever.

mcgiveittome: Is there enough untapped upside for players like Lewis, Julien, Ober, etc., to help the Twins take the next step toward World Series contention? It feels like they’re so close, yet so far.
Keith Law: They’re going to miss Gray’s production if they can’t re-sign him, but I think they’re still contenders. A healthy Lewis is a potential star, now that they’ve fixed all his swing issues. Still some talent marching up that system too.

KC: Gold Glove award is a joke, kinda surprised a DH doesn’t win it someday. Oh forgot that already happened when Palme8ro won it
Keith Law: Yeah I stopped paying attention to it a while ago. They tried to update the criteria but it’s still flawed.

Sedona: I read your piece on Chase Delauter’s swing for the AFL.  He describes his swing as a “Scissor Swing”.  He has a high contact/hard hit rate, low strike out rate, and seems like he hits the ball oppo on pitches that he’s late on and it still flies w/ strong wrists.  Built like a freak athlete.  I’ve seen Kyle Tucker comps.  Does he have to adjust his swing to succeed?
Keith Law: Lots of guys have scissor swings – that’s not really an issue.

George: What do you think about the player dev and scouting hires in DC? Cause for optimism? Or more of the same from a Rizzo-led FO?
Keith Law: Haas, Ciolek, Dunn are all great hires.

Guest: Hello Mr. Klaw. it’s been awhile since I’ve been able to catch one of your chats, so today’s a good day for me. It’s getting close to end-of-year lists, including music. Any top-of-mind thoughts about which certain albums will land on your upcoming list?
Keith Law: In no particular order – Slowdive, Noname, Arlo Parks, Corinne Bailey Rae, Geese, The Hives, Grian Chatten, Cory Wong, Altin Gun. I probably forgot a few in there.

Codey: Will Jordan Lawler be close to a top 10 prospect for your next rankings? Or did his s.s.s. MLB struggles worry you about his future?
Keith Law: I don’t worry about tiny samples like that.

Heather: When people say of a GM/Head of Baseball Operations, “Oh, that guy’s really good at drafting and developing”, are they praising the wrong person?  Chaim Bloom, for instance, was killed for his trades, but lauded for rebuilding the Red Sox’ farm system.  But how much did he see of Roman Anthony, Mikey Romero, or even Marcelo Mayer before he drafted them?  Do GMs run a team’s draft, or is it the scouting directors/
Keith Law: The GM hires the scouting director, normally. They might see the first-rounders, and have input into that one pick. The GM also sets the overall philosophy, such as determining that the team will use a model to make the picks vs. the scouting department doing so subjectively. But saying such-and-such a GM signed or drafted all those players is nonsense.

AHume92: Barger or Martinez at 3B for Toronto next year? Seems like either plan could easily end badly.
Keith Law: Yes but I’m more hopeful on Orelvis than I was a year ago.

Shawn: I enjoyed your summary of The Zone of Interest by Martin Amis. Had you read any of his earlier books? I liked a few of them a lot, but his style could be exhausting. I haven’t read Zone of Interest yet, but I suspect he would have been more understated with that kind of setting and storyline.
Keith Law: Yes, I read Money some time ago. I liked Zone of Interest more.

Shawn: You always hear about pitchers trying to increase the spin rate on their fastball, but is it possible for a spin rate that’s much lower than the normal range to be especially effective too?
Keith Law: Yes. Spin rate in a vacuum isn’t all that telling – more isn’t necessarily better.

Shawn: What should Bobby Dalbec’s future hold? Is he just a classic AAAA player?
Keith Law: To me, yes.

Santaspirt: I don’t understand… Is Alec Bohm good at defense now and Trea Turner bad? What if defense we’re a zero sum game all this time?
Keith Law: Bohm’s clearly better, and Turner’s defense was already sliding a little bit even last year. I said when they signed him that Stott at SS and Turner at 2B would be a better alignment. I doubt that happens any time soon.

Duff: Are you down on Baty?
Keith Law: No.

Lefty: They might call me Lefty, but I will be voting Republican next Presidential election.
Keith Law: Sure.

Marani: Is Adrian Beltre the only candidate elected to the HOF this winter?  Or does Todd Helton sneak his way in as well?
Keith Law: My guess is only Beltre.

Anthony: How would you sort the Rangers OF going forward, with Langford likely ready at some point next year?
Keith Law: Keep all four – him, Taveras, Garcia, Carter – and cycle them through the DH spot to keep everyone fresh.

Anthony: Shouldn’t the Rangers be celebrated for taking a losing team and actually spending money to try and win?  I know it all didn’t work out perfect (Degrom), but they now have foundational building blocks to mix with their young, upcoming talent.
Keith Law: Absolutely. You don’t have to win every move – they tried enough that they’re two wins from a pennant. That’s a success.

Jake: Does Bellinger get paid as if this year is who he is?
Keith Law: Yes.

Tommy: What’s your biggest baseball heresy?  Mine:  Fenway Park is a dump, that should’ve been torn down 20 years ago.  I’ve been going there since 1979.  It’s grimy, the seats are so tiny that even Keith Law finds them uncomfortable, the clubhouses are supposedly much too cramped — if it wasn’t for that GD Wall, Fenway Park would just be the site of some Boston University dorms.
Keith Law: I don’t love Fenway or Wrigley like many/most fans do. They are very uncomfortable places to watch a game. I understand the nostalgia value and I’m definitely not advocating for premium seats in every ballpark (at taxpayer expense) … but those two aren’t especially high on my list.

Tracy: Movie talk: Oppenheimer might be the best film I’ve seen this century. Have you seen it? Review?
Keith Law: Not yet. Will see it soon now that it’s coming to digital.

Thomas: re: Ng… did any team have a worse run of draft picks in 2021 and 2022 than the Marlins? Watson already got traded and Jacob Berry looks like a complete bust with the 6th pick.
Keith Law: Berry was a huge reach; Watson seemed like a great pick, although I guess the makeup was as bad as or worse than advertised. Either way, though, the scouting director who made those picks wasn’t Ng’s hire.

John Poles: Senator Steve Garvey?
Keith Law: I’d be surprised.

Jud: Keith, I know you appreciate some shoegaze.  Check out Film School’s newest album if you haven’t already.  Been really enjoying the new Slowdive and FA records.
Keith Law: New name to me – thank you.

Scott: Thoughts on Johan Rojas’s playing ability and future?
Keith Law: Defense and speed are legit. I don’t think he’s ever much with the bat but there is contact skill there to carry him enough so the rest of it plays. It would help if he gained a little strength – that frame isn’t going to allow much, but any increase in contact quality is a big boost to his chances to be a regular or more.

Jon v: Think Manzardo opens 2024 at 1B with big league club with Naylor mostly at DH?
Keith Law: Seems too soon? Maybe June.

PhillieJake: Late to chat sorry if this was asked. Why did The Pirates send Carter Bins to AFL? He’s at best fourth in depth chart. No real future in majors with team.
Keith Law: They were probably required to send a catcher – teams are given certain spots to fill – and chose him.

Sagya Williams: Believer in Wilyer Abreu?  Will he stick as an above-average regular?
Keith Law: Don’t see it.

Patrick: As one of the skeptic/rationalist types I follow, can you help explain why so many – yourself included – have taken the maximalist position on transgenderism? There isn’t much in the way of “science” to support it. The science I’ve seen you cite is flimsy at best, and reliant on language games to confuse/distort reality (“sex is not binary” is not true in any sense when every human being on the planet has exactly two parents). Is it just fear of social/professional consequences? And if so, do you see any potential downside to introducing unreality to science and politics? A concern I have is with vaccine advocates promoting an easily disprovable lie, like “trans women are women” – who would trust anything you say on vaccines when you’ve proven yourself to be willing to throw rationalism out the window when it suits your politics?
Keith Law: You kind of took the mask off there at the end. There’s plenty of science demonstrating that sex is not binary – the “two parents” thing has nothing to do with it – and that the transgender brain is real, with some genetic influences. But the important point here is that my advocacy for trans rights comes in the face of a hate-filled, anti-science, highly partisan attempt to demonize trans people, very much in the way that the Nazis othered Jews and Roma people, and very much in the way that Hannah Arendt explained would-be autocrats do as they try to rise to power. Laws that ban gender-affirming care for minors don’t improve any outcomes, and they increase suicides and self-harm. What those laws do do, however, is play to a base of voters that has been primed by a decades-long disinformation war that has told them that tobacco is safe and the climate isn’t changing and vaccines don’t work and the earth is flat and the 2020 election was stolen.
Keith Law: You have a choice: You can stand up for the rights of one of the most vulnerable populations in the country, even if it amounts to no more than opposing laws designed to isolate or harm them, or you can side with the people shouting “groomers” and “pedophiles” and doing everything they can to other trans people. I don’t think this is a very hard choice, especially given all of the evidence from the neuroscience world that the transgender brain is different.

Bartleby: Why can’t people just STFU about sexual issues that have nothing to do with them?
Keith Law: It’s the disinformation war I mentioned. Most of these people never gave a shit about trans folks until the alt-right threw a target on their backs.

Sedona: Have you had a chance to evaluate Yamamoto?  Potential #1?  Prediction where he does?
Keith Law: He will also be on my free agent rankings.

Heather: Local radio show was talking about the Red Sox’ GM search, got deep into the weeds, and started talking about Billy Beane.  One of the radio guys was adamant:  Billy Beane should be in the HOF, for the way he changed how front offices approached the game.  Should a GM who never got a team to the World Series be in the Hall?
Keith Law: I have no opinion on Beane’s Hall candidacy but I wouldn’t use pennants or WS rings as a strict, binary criterion.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for reading and all of your questions. My free agent rankings will drop right around November 1st, give or take a day or two, and that will probably be my next major piece for the Athletic. Stay tuned for that, some new game reviews, and some great podcast guests coming up as well.

For subscribers to the Athletic, I posted columns on players I was wrong about and on Boston’s firing of Chaim Bloom. I also reviewed the excellent new board game 3 Ring Circus over at Paste and updated my list of the best new games of 2023 at Vulture.

Keith Law: And more and more I get a tightness ’bout right here in my chest. Klawchat.

Dave: Hi Keith,

Have you watched The Bear? I saw you mentioned it in a recent post, but I’m not sure if you’ve written about it at length. I love the show, although sometimes it is so emotional it is hard to watch (the flashback episode of Thanksgiving dinner was especially tough.)
Keith Law: Love it. Not totally sure about the S2 cliffhangers – they felt a little overdone, especially the Marcus part – but I think the series is so well-written and acted, with the food photography especially worthy of praise.

Aaron: We’ve seen young players like Jackson Holliday and Thomas Saggese struggle in their first taste of AAA before settling in – is the jump to AAA that much of an adjustment or are we just seeing some end of year fatigue?
Keith Law: Tiny samples.

Adam (Viroqua, WI): Not a question, but I just wanted to let you know I finally pulled the trigger on an Athletic subscription because of your content.
Keith Law: Thank you! I certainly appreciate that, especially as I come to the end of my contract.

Hank: If Trout requested a trade, how much money would the Angels have to send with him? He’s owed 259M over 7 years.
Keith Law: I don’t think very much at all. He’d probably get that in free agency.

I’m Not Joey Gallo, I’m Joey Callo, C- Allo: If were were heading a team, how would you choose to manage Shohei Otani going forward. Is there a plan that makes sense, or is it just such unknown territory that you roll the dice and hope for the best with health?
Keith Law: I’d plan to have him pitch whenever he’s capable – it depends on what surgery he has, of course, but I think people saying he’ll never pitch again are being catastrophic.

Andy: Where do you stand on sleeve ads?
Keith Law: I don’t even notice them.

Pramit: Why do you think so many Jays hitters have underperformed this year?
Keith Law: I don’t have a good answer for that, sorry. Vlad and Varsho have been especially disappointing but I haven’t spent time looking at why.

Les: Should Atlanta pick up Eddie Rosario’s option, and then still look to upgrade LF if a opportunity presents itself, or decline it, maybe try Grissom in LF?
Keith Law: I think $9 million is probably reasonable for a one-win player, but I think Atlanta needs to aim for more than that. I would be about 60/40 for declining it.

Jackie: I asked you a year ago about Chaim Bloom’s job security, and you poo poohed that idea.  Three last place finishes in four years in a large market like Boston is a career killer.  Any guy who knows how to read a spreadsheet can be the assistant to the assistant GM in Tampa; being The Guy in a large market like Boston is a completely different animal, and Red Sox ownership (and you) forgot that.
Keith Law: “Any guy who knows how to read a spreadsheet can be the assistant to the assistant GM in Tampa” is a real tell here. You have zero idea what you’re talking about, don’t even know what Bloom’s last (most senior) role was in Tampa, and didn’t read the column I posted this morning which is linked atop this chat.

Tom: Would Chaim Bloom make sense as the GM in Detroit? Surprised Harris hasn’t hired one by now.
Keith Law: Wouldn’t it be odd to go from President of Baseball Ops to GM?

Heather: The Angels will begin shopping Mike Trout this winter, supposedly.  What’s the market for a guy that hasn’t played 120 games since 2019, and is signed for megabucks through 2030?
Keith Law: The durability issue is real, but he was a 6-win player last year, is still very good when healthy, and he’s Mike Fucking Trout. You sell tickets when you trade for that guy. He’s going to be a better investment than most free agents this winter.

Doug: Do you see Anthopolous making another big trade this upcoming offseason? Looks like SP will be the main need, definitely if Morton chooses to retire.
Keith Law: The betting should always be on Anthopoulos making a big trade.

JJ: This makes three GMs (or the equivalent) in a row that haven’t quite lasted four years in Boston.  That seems … rash.  Do potential hires look at that recent track record and say, “No, thanks”, or do those candidates still think, “Yeah, but it won’t happen to me“?
Keith Law: Those jobs are so scarce, and so well-paid, that I don’t expect them to have any problem finding a good candidate. Even with the ownership issues I outlined, it’s not like working for Arte Moreno or Dick Monfort or even Jim Crane.

Michael: Do you believe in the success of Orlando Arcia? Seems like they really did a nice job making adjustments with him once he came over. Very good value if he’s just a average regular, only a 2M salary or so. Or do you think they look to upgrade, looking for more upside.
Keith Law: I’m buying this. When he was a prospect I thought he’d be a much better big leaguer, but this version looks pretty sustainable.

Kevin: Going to Portland tonight to see the Sea Dogs. Could Roman Anthony be a top 5 prospect in baseball this time next year?
Keith Law: Hm. It’s a top 5 swing in the minors. If the question is “could,” then yes. I wouldn’t go to “will.”
Keith Law: I have a scouting notebook coming that will discuss him a little

Matt: Is Perry Minasian the next head of baseball operations who’ll get fired?
Keith Law: He’s the one I’m most worried about, with them missing the playoffs and his boss being crazy.
Keith Law: Also Ng, what with the owner saying they didn’t want the “distraction” of her contract situation … if that’s the case, just give her an extension. The team is better than expected this year and looks like it’s trending upwards.

Kevin w: If you were running the reds, is there anything you would have done differently in 2023?
Keith Law: Upgraded at the deadline.

Scherzers_Blue_Eye: I’ll join in with Adam, you’re one of the only reasons I keep my Athletic subscription. If you go, I go!

An overall observation from this year–it seems everyone at Harrisburg has a K-rate that makes Mike Cameron blush. Is it the player
Keith Law: They’ve rushed some guys there, too.

Kevin w: Is Vegas going to exist in 20 years?
Guest: what would you do if you were the cardinals gm.  I would trade em all and start over.  Goldy and Arenado included
Keith Law: I would have at least put their names out there in July, and would do the same this winter.

Alex: Curious why you think Kevin Alcantara has fallen off for so many? Seems like he’s proven himself pretty well after struggling the first month or so.
Keith Law: I don’t know – I remain extremely high on him.

Erwin: What do you make of Henry Davis?  Promoted too soon?  Future position?
Keith Law: Not concerned about the bat. I wish he were catching but they have Endy too and there aren’t enough AB for both.

Mike: Concern for Robert Hassell given his struggles?
Keith Law: Saw him Tuesday. Really needs to get stronger.

Adam D.: In the wake of Bloom’s firing, how much longer do you think the Giants should give Farhan? I’m of the opinion that he should get at least 3 more years to prove out the farm system improvements, but it seems many among the fanbase want him gone ASAP.
Keith Law: Owners/execs who let fan sentiment sway them are destined to make bad decisions. The Giants are also heading in the right direction, albeit more slowly than I’d thought a year or so ago.

Reggie: Do you think Max Fried will ultimately leave like Freeman and Swanson? Should they ride it out, hope for a awesome walk year, or should they explore what they could get in return for 1 year of Max on the trade market?
Keith Law: If they’re not planning to sign him, they should probably shop him, but I’d be inclined to go long-term with him.

Check our the Herz while DJ revolves it: Did Mike Rizzo just Tanner Roark the Cubs?
Keith Law: Is that about Herz? I don’t think so.

Mike: Why are so many people giving cherington a pass? Hes had 4 years and inherited a solid core. How much longer would you give him?
Keith Law: He inherited a solid core? News to me.

Marani: The Red Sox fire GMs on a weekly basis, but Brian Cashman has more job security than Clarence Thomas.  Sometimes, I miss George Steinbrenner.
Keith Law: Check Cashman’s flight records.

Bill: Is Spencer Torkelson finally over the hump? He’s had a very productive second half not only with HRs but drawing walks, and he looks more comfortable at the plate.
Keith Law: Yes.

Bret: Hey Keith. Was Richie Palacios ever a prospect of note moving through the Indians system? Does he have any chance of being a MLB level 4th OF’er/utility guy moving forward?
Keith Law: Yes and yes. Limited ceiling but I really liked him for what he was.

Dave: Did you see the announcement for Apiary? Looks pretty amazing.
Keith Law: Yes and I put in for a review copy (Jamey’s very good about that but I know there are only so many to go around).

Jay: Jett Williams .. how high could you see him rising in your prospect rankings? He has seemed to have gotten better and better
Keith Law: I’m a fan. Mets keep drafting well even when other things are going wrong for them.

Dan: CJ Abrams is a stud that will make Nats fans forget about Trea Turner. True or Truer?
Keith Law: Abrams is going to be a very, very good player, and will not make Nats fans forget about Trea Turner.

Rappa: I am very disappointed in you KLaw. In your defense of Deleware as a state, you overlooked it’s greatest invention: Scrapple. A scrapple-egg-and-cheese bagel is a big slice of Heaven.
Keith Law: I have never eaten scrapple because I know what’s in it.

Chris: Does the authority someone gets from expertise make their opinions worth more? Many people cite arguing from authority as a logical fallacy, and obviously not all authority and expertise are equal, but how do you determine the fallacy from actual authority?
Keith Law: The fallacy is saying that someone’s expertise/position makes their arguments correct. It is not a fallacy to give their arguments more consideration, or to make their background one small part of a larger evidence-based argument.

Jeff: How should the BlueJays manage Alek Manoah this offseason?  Is he tradeable? hang on in hopes of a rebound? or a sunk cost?
Keith Law: The real answer to that depends on what is actually ailing him, and I don’t think we know that.

Kip: How do view Jhancarlos Lara’s upside after this minor league season?
Keith Law: Good delivery, looks like two good pitches, some issues with LHB even at a low level this year. Intriguing arm with starter potential.

Jason rogers: Do you think the pitch clock is adding to pitcher injuries or is this just the new normal with pitchers
Keith Law: The rise in elbow injuries predates the pitch clock. It may be exacerbating the ongoing trend, but it didn’t cause it.

John: What position do you see Tyler Black playing if he’s on the Brewers opening day roster next season?
Keith Law: Third base?

Mike: Is there any hope for the Pirates being a World Series contender in the next 3-5 years? Asking for a friend
Keith Law: Yes.

Oren: What do you make of Davis Schneider? Real bat?
Keith Law: Not really. And no position.

Mike: Gavin Cross has been one of my biggest prospect disappointments this year. What’s gone wrong and has his long-term outlook changed?
Keith Law: Long-term outlook has changed dramatically. Hard to even project him as a regular given how bad his season has been.

Alex: If you were David Ross would you be playing Tauchman or PCA the rest of the way?
Keith Law: PCA, even if just for defense.

ChicagoSteve: Keith, any thoughts on former T100 guy Mets OF Alexander Ramirez. Scouting the stat line, he really seems to have regressed badly.
Keith Law: Don’t scout the stat line.

Fox: Who do you anticipate having a better career: Skenes or Yamamoto?
Keith Law: Unfair comparison.

Chris: Any comments on the George Kirby situation.  Reactions (including from Ron Darling unfortunately) seemed way over the top and typical “in my day” and “young pitchers today are coddled too much” garbage.
Keith Law: Kirby is absolutely right to say he felt gassed or tired, and all of these old guys, most of whom couldn’t have sniffed Kirby’s average velocity on the best days of their lives, should shut it.

Jay: What are your general thoughts on David Stearns? Seems to be exactly what the Mets needed
Keith Law: What about Stearns fits what the Mets needed?  I think a lot of fans advocating for Stearns don’t have any real sense of what he brings to the team.

Sedona: Do you see Cowser and Westburg the odd players out when the dust settles w/ Holliday, Heston, Mayo, Norby, Ortiz, Basallo, etc. come up?
Keith Law: Yes. Ortiz probably too, with Henderson/Holliday the left side of the infield for the next forever.

Mike: Would Bellinger’s 2023 excellence give you the confidence to give me a long term, big money deal or is there still lingering concern given how awful his previous two years were?
Keith Law: I’m leaning towards the former and I think he’ll be paid like 2021-22 never happened.

Sedona: Do you like Mason Barnett or Chayce McDermott?
Keith Law: McDermott’s a reliever for me. Barnett had some command/control questions but has been better in AA late in the year – could be real, could be a small sample issue.

Mike: Thoughts on Victor Scott II? He’s seem to have had a coming out party this year with insane numbers on the basepaths while showing some value at the plate too.
Keith Law: Extra guy. 80 speed, bat isn’t everyday.

Frank: Does Anthopolous have enough ammo in the farm system to pull off another substantial trade? It would decimate the farm if they made another from the looks of it.
Keith Law: Decimating the farm to keep the team a WS contender is worth it. I think they could.

BK: Love your monthly music lists – they turned me on to my favorite band the Wombats a few years ago. If I love the Wombats, what are some other bands I may like?
Keith Law: Maybe Sundara Karma and Two Door Cinema Club.

TomBruno23: If Wainwright ends up at 199 I know it is your fault (and Tim Lincecum and Javier Vazquez).
Keith Law: Quite possibly.

Andy: Elly is too good to not make adjustments, right?
Keith Law: I will always bet on a player this young and athletic to make adjustments.

Sedona: Believer in Ha-seong Kim’s breakout year?
Keith Law: Yes.

Dan: Whats the ceiling for guys like Trey Lipscomb and Handy Morales? Morales hits well but 0 HRs in a small sample.
Keith Law: I really don’t care if a player doesn’t homer in two months in his pro debut after he played a full college season in the spring.

Keith: Seems like Preller is safe, but should he be?
Keith Law: I wonder if he’s safe, but the fact that the Padres are so bad in extra innings doesn’t seem to be on the GM. Did he build a contending roster? Yes. That would be my #1 criterion. But finishing ~10 games under .500 in a year when you were supposed to compete is not good for one’s short-term career prospects.

Kyle: Could you ever see Oklahoma City as a future expansion market? It’s the nation’s 20th largest city in terms of population (but only 40th-something in terms of media market) – but a lot of growth in recent years.
Keith Law: It’s nowhere close. I think it’ll be decades before that’s reasonable.

Rjd: Yankee fan here, any hope for volpe? Roster construction wise, seems like the team needs him to be a superstar for 24-27 and he will probably end up a league avg ss (3 war player based on d) . I don’t have faith in this current staff of guiding him to anything more and fear the org too slow/prideful to change course, thoughts?
Keith Law: Oh I think he’s going to be much better than a league-average player.

Guy: Will it matter who Red Sox pick for GM because of ownership’s ridiculous take on being cheap these last 5 years?
Keith Law: This is one of the premises of my column today.

Steve: Are you down on Parada?   Seems to have been mediocre behind the plate, and he didn’t mash like some expected.
Keith Law: Reports from pro scouts weren’t great this year, mostly on the defense. I think he’ll hit more than enough, but he has to stay behind the dish.

Jay: A new GM fires Alex Cora, right?  Gotta have your own man in the dugout — the relationship between Bloom and Cora was downright frosty.  Cora spent many a press conference passively/aggressively telling us that Bloom was the source of every problem in Boston since King George III.
Keith Law: I don’t see that, plus I think Cora is ownership’s guy anyway. In my view he’s a good tactical manager and the right person if you’re expecting to bring up a slew of position player prospects in the next few years.

Chris: I’ve been reading you for a while and correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems you’ve become less libertarian and more liberal since 2006? Do you think this is true and if so have you thought about why?
Keith Law: I think it’s the Overton window affecting your view here. The rise of the alt-right, Christian nationalism, hate & violence towards LGBTQ+ people … I’m not going to sit quietly by while this shit takes over our country.

Mike: Do you have a sense of what Deion Sanders’ ceiling would have been had he committed to baseball?
Keith Law: He was more tools than skills, really – the lack of at bats really showed in the majors. A credit to what an incredible athlete he was that he could even accomplish what he did in MLB in what was essentially his hobby sport.

Steve: Love what the Mets did at the deadline, but while they seem stocked on position players, I’m not sure I see a pitcher in their system who projects as more than a #4 starter or middle reliever.    Am I missing anyone?
Keith Law: It’s definitely their system’s weakness. I like Sproat more than you do, I think. High beta prospect, but definitely more than #4 starter upside.

Jibraun: Re Goldschmidt and Arenado, several local writers have reported that ownership doesn’t want to trade them. The decision not to trade them can’t be pinned on Mo and Co. accordingly.
Keith Law: That’s fair, but then you have to ask ownership if they want to win, or want to just market those two stars and be happy with a .500 team.

Sedona: Jeremy Pena was unfairly destined for stardom by many… does he still have a chance?  Or has he shown who he’ll be?
Keith Law: He’s a very good player, no? League average hitter with plus defense? I’ll take it. Not a star, doubt he ever will be, but he added enough strength to make the bat play.

Guest: Do the Royals have to move MJ Melendez back to Catcher, or has that ship sailed?  Seems that the bat isn’t good enough to be an every day outfielder.  His defense has been in league worst range at both C and OF too.
Keith Law: He should be catching regularly because nobody gets better by not doing something.

Dan: MacKenzie Gore–I feel like he has the stuff, but doesn’t miss as many bats as he should. What’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: He misses plenty of bats, but his four-seamer plays well below its velocity and he needs to deemphasize it in favor of all of the other weapons he has. He’s allowed 17 homers on the four-seamer alone. That would put him in the top 50 pitchers in baseball in homers allowed even if we ignore the ten he’s given up on non-FB.

Tyler: Are you lower, higher or about the same on Kyle Harrison than a year ago? He has done a better job at limiting walks in a small sample with San Francisco but hasn’t found his groove otherwise yet.
Keith Law: Lower.
Keith Law: Tiny sample, again, and one of his outings was against a Reds team that was on the bus before they finished swinging the bats.

Sedona: Seems like Sig was big part of the Cardinals, Astros and Birds rebuilds
Keith Law: Yep. And he should get consideration for open GM jobs.

Dan: How many questions per chat do you get and just think “this person is a moron?” (other than this question, of course)
Keith Law: That’s way more common on Twitter than anywhere else. Lot of people there comment without reading an article, or comment based on something they heard I said/wrote but actually didn’t.

Jibraun: Have you considered doing a year-end books you read post? You don’t have to rank them from top to bottom, but maybe do them tiered on the 20-80 scale. I know some readers (read: me) would like that.
Keith Law: Fair idea.

Jason S: Does Langford have a higher ceiling then Crews?
Keith Law: I think so. Crews is higher probability.

Zirinsky: Yankees offense: older players having down years or an organizational philosophy that needs a rethink? Or both?
Keith Law: Why not both?

Seymour: What is Jasson Dominguez’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Superstar, top 10 player in the AL type.

Jt: Is fixing the Blue Jays just a matter of going out and getting a corner OF with some thump?
Keith Law: More than that but I think that’s a good start.

Sedona: Christopher Morel talented enough to hold down an everyday role?
Keith Law: I would bet the under.

Jibraun: Re Jay’s question and your answer, then let me ask: what do you think Stearns brings to the Mets?
Keith Law: I’m not really sure, to be honest. The most notable part of his tenure in Milwaukee was the gutting of their scouting staffs. What credit, if any, do we give him, versus Matt Arnold or Craig Counsell or the various directors involved, for their drafts? For building a great defense? For the development of the big 3 starters?

Steve: I’ve heard a bunch of people like Ryan Clifford since the deal…but that’s an awfully high strikeout rate he’s running.    How concerned should I be?
Keith Law: High risk, high reward guy.
Keith Law: There is real upside there and he may have been rushed.

Dan: Did you see Brady House yesterday? 104 MPH, 410-ft. Oppo-taco. A wise man once said “Brady House destroys baseballs.” That Nats lineup is going to be so much fun next year
Keith Law: No, I saw him Tuesday. Actually hit one ball extremely hard that was just a foulout to the RF in the box score.

Steve: Do you think the Mets should pencil Mauricio in for 2B next year (and switch McNeil to the OF), or go shopping for an OF in the winter?
Keith Law: Yes. The extension to McNeil might be an albatross … his value is so dependent on his AVG that it’s easy for him to underproduce, and now they’re kind of stuck with playing him unless they accept the sunk cost.

Jt: T or F: Babe Schnieder is a better use of a 40 man spot than is Cavan Biggio.
Keith Law: T.

Matt: Any thoughts on PCA’s first few games?
Keith Law: No.

Jeff: Will Colson Montgomery grow into more in game power?
Keith Law: I think he’ll be much more of a hitter for average/doubles than HR power.

TomBruno23: Jordan Walker…does he have to put up a 125 wRC+ to be an average player?
Keith Law: That seems too high.

Donny: Have you seen any of the robo umps in action this year? Is ke’Bryan hayes right in that we need it now?
Keith Law: My argument, based on what MLB execs have said for years, is that the ABS might not improve the overall accuracy of calls, but it will trade egregiously wrong calls for ones in the gray zone just around the plate. I believe most players would accept that – I can live with the ball 1″ off the plate being incorrectly called a strike much more than I can live with the ball 5″ off the plate being incorrectly called a strike.

Tyler: Samuel Basallo has picked up a ton of helium in the past few months. Do you see star-level potential with the bat, and where does he fit in defensively long term?
Keith Law: Blog post coming. Didn’t see him catch, unfortunately. He DHd with Ardoin, who can really catch and throw but is no more than a backup, behind the plate that day.
Keith Law: Basallo’s a big kid, BTW.

Longtime reader, first time chatter: With the explosion of prospect content in recent years, how has your job changed since you first started? Some prospect sites have multiple writers working for them, but it appears that you are flying solo – do you ever feel the need for someone to help support you in your work?
Keith Law: I like having colleagues who want to write about prospects – and when we had Zach Buchanan he did an excellent job – but I’ve got my system down for producing the key content throughout the year.

TomBruno23: Need your thoughts on Travis Kelce/Taylor Swift dating speculation, thanks.
Keith Law: Seems like he’s slumming it.
Keith Law: (I kid.)

Josh: Thoughts on this year’s draft class? Seems like a pretty uninspiring prep position player group
Keith Law: Prep class is easier to evaluate in the spring, I think. The college crop, however, is not so hot.

Joe: Do you think the way the Red Sox ownership treated Chaim Bloom will make finding his replacement difficult? He did the job they asked him to do, allowed him to build for the future with the assumption he’d see it through and then fired him in a PR move to act like the organization was turning a page. I’m a Red Sox diehard and I’m sick over this. It’s a disgrace.
Keith Law: No, for the reasons I cited above, but I said on the Athletic Baseball Show today that if you’re a candidate you should at least ask two questions: 1) will you allow me to spend to acquire pitching from outside the org and 2) was the lack of any pitchers taken with high draft picks or signed for big bonuses as international free agents an ownership mandate?

Kevin: Not sure if you have a vote this year but any thoughts on Betts vs Acuna for MVP?
Keith Law: I have NL RoY. I’ll do my column with hypothetical ballots for the other 5 awards in two weeks.

Guy: You think Biden’s too old for round 2?  Meaning competent.
Keith Law: I think Biden, Trump, Feinstein, McConnell, are all too damn old. It’s absurd.

Matt: How should Cubs fans be thinking about Miguel Amaya going forward? Hard contact, but not enough of it.
Keith Law: Does he even have 150 PA yet? You have to be more patient than that. He can hit. He will hit.

Dave: To follow up on the Kyle Harrison answer, why are you lower on him? What’s changed or not improved with profile?
Keith Law: It’s a tough delivery to repeat and his control took a real step back this year.

Kak: What’s your favorite meal to cook at home?
Keith Law: Pizza, indoor or outdoor (I have an Ooni oven, big fan); or pasta, very al dente, several ways – all’amatriciana, alla vodka, carbonara.

Jason: Listened to any of Lauren Mayberry’s solo stuff yet?
Keith Law: Just the one song. It’s fine but I hope the whole album isn’t very slow piano-driven music.

Kak: If I was starting to play board games, what would you consider the best intro game?
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride is usually my rec.
Keith Law: Five minutes to learn, and easy to find.

Kak: Will we ever have a franchise in Nashville?
Keith Law: I think yes.

TomBruno23: Sig…that list of SP drafted and developed by the Cardinals since Luhnow/Sig/Strom left after 2011 is not encouraging: Wacha, Flaherty………..Luke Weaver…………………a bunch of other guys.
Keith Law: The Weaver one I did not get. Or Hudson. Don’t sleep on Ian Bedell, though.

Josh Donaldson: What’s your album of the year so far, and why is it Geese’s “3D Country”?
Keith Law: Heh, it’s up there. Top five of the year, at least. Young Fathers’ Heavy Heavy is in there too. Grian Chatten’s Chaos for the Fly, Noname’s Sundial, Protomartyr’s Formal Growth in the Desert, Belle & Sebastian’s Late Developers, Slowdive’s Everything Is Alive. Lot of good albums this year that I liked but wouldn’t go so far as to put on a best-of list.

Steve: What would your plan with Baty be?   Give him the 3B job in 2024, bring in competition, have him start in AAA, or shop him in the offseason?    I’m guessing he won’t have much trade value at this point.
Keith Law: Third base, every day.

Fox: What was your first job out of college?
Keith Law: Management consultant. Liked it for about 6-9 months. After that it became very repetitive.

Steve: Junior Caminero’s future position with the Rays? He seems more a corner guy but I’d think it’d tough to dislodge Diaz & Paredes. They could obviously use him most at SS assuming Wander is done. 2B in place of Lowe, who never seems to stay consistently healthy or hot?
Keith Law: I think he’s a corner guy, and you dislodge whoever because he’s that kind of bat.

Pat: Grayson Rodriguez has been electric since he’s returned. Ready to believe his early season struggles are behind him and this is what’s to come?
Keith Law: I expect a lot of ups-and-downs. He wasn’t very  good his last outing, either, which I think is kind of where he’s at – stuff is more than good enough, but he’s still working out command, how to attack hitters multiple times, etc.

Matt: Jackson Jobe has been unbelievable the past few months. What’s been clicking for him this season and what’s his long-term outlook at this point?
Keith Law: Completely healthy, more than everything else.

A Salty Scientist: Is it fair to say that Eury has #1 pitcher in baseball upside? And if yes, is it just an increase in command that gets him there?
Keith Law: Yes, and I think yes.

Chew Stu: Have you ever been to Sedona?
Keith Law: Yes. I was a little hung over.

Todd: Can Wicks be a mid rotation guy?
Keith Law: That’s about right.

Kyle: How can us Orioles fan cope with talent that could turn into a dynasty but a truly horrendous Owner/Chairman set on not cashing in on it?
Just tune it all out and hope he sells?
Keith Law: Yes. Enjoy what’s on the field. Stay present. Good advice for life in general.

Bill: Love watching Bryson Stott … has he outperformed your expectations?
Keith Law: By a degree or two, yes.

Caleb: Which Wingspan habitats do you find yourself gravitating to?  I usually like to stick with building out the grasslands and wetlands.
Keith Law: I tailor it to the bonus cards. Wetlands is probably my least used, though.

Fox: In regards to my earlier question, let me rephrase. Who would you want to be the ace of your staff- Skenes, Yamamoto or other?
Keith Law: Right now, Yamamoto is an ace for someone. Skenes may be one some day.

Tom: The Anthony Rendon signing has been yet another unmitigated disaster for the Angels. I remember he was at or near the top of your free agent list that year, so my question is, how do I blame Arte Moreno for this?
Keith Law: Maybe blame him for not going all in on Cole?

Chew Derek: Have you ever played fantasy baseball?
Keith Law: Yes, from 1990 to 2002.

Mallios: Whats your favorite stadium? Least favorite?
Keith Law: PNC Park is my favorite. Tampa Bay is my least. Still haven’t been to the new Atlanta one.

Mallios: Do you agree that NYC has the best pizza?
Keith Law: Depends on what style you like. The best single pizzeria in the US for me is Pizzeria Bianco in Phoenix, but that’s Neapolitan style, and may not be everyone’s preference. For NY style, well, yes, it’s NYC.

Dana: Austin Wells has looked perfectly fine behind the plate and the pitchers have praised him. Aside from the throwing problems, what makes you think he can’t catch?
Keith Law: I’m surprised you think he has “looked perfectly fine.”

Andy: Shana Tova to you and your family.
Keith Law: Thank you, although none of us is Jewish. L’Shana Tovah to you as well.

Tom: Logan Gilbert… I remember you had him as a mid rotation guy.  Have your thoughts changed?
Keith Law: Velo jumped (twice, if you count the jump back after his junior year when he had mono) and he added a pitch. Loved the delivery & command in college.

Doug: Do you think Columbus OH will be considered for an expansion team?
Keith Law: No. I doubt we see a team added to the rust belt given population trends.

Ken from E720: over the last several years me, my wife, her brother, and nephew take a trip and visit a few mlb parks (have 7 left).  I had always wanted to go to Oakland, especially with them probably leaving.  I know people always say it is a dump and I know where is a lot of history there.  I’m sorry and I am sure I am in the minority and I know it isn’t modern but I was 6 rows a little beyond third base.  I loved sitting at that stadium.  i really enjoyed the experience and had a big ol grin on my face the entire time.
Keith Law: It is a dump, but you know what? It’s outside. You get to watch an MLB game outside, and that puts it above Tampa, and frankly above a whole lot of other experiences in life.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you so much for all of your questions and the kind words. My minor league player(s) of the year column will run at some point next week and I’ll have my last regular-season scouting notebook in the next day or two. Have a great weekend, everyone.

Keith Law: Speaking as a child of the ’70s … it’s Klawchat.

Jeb: When would expect Skenes to make his debut in the MLB?
Keith Law: If healthy, probably June or so of next year, depending maybe on whether the Pirates need him (if they’re contending in the first half). I do think he’ll have to work with his changeup a lot more before he comes up.

Jacos: Should cubs bring up PCA?
Keith Law: I don’t see the harm, but is there really playing time for him?

Nick: Do you have any concerns about Justin Crawford’s groundball rates? Is that something that will change as he gets stronger?
Keith Law: Not really. Getting guys to elevate the ball more is one of the easier things to do, according to player development folks I’ve asked over the years.

Kevin: Is Ke’Bryan Hayes turning into an elite 3B? Seems like he is finally figuring it out.
Keith Law: Defensively? I have always thought he was elite. I know he’s been on a tear at the plate recently but it’s a small sample. I’m still a fan, always ranked him pretty high, but I don’t want confirmation bias to push me here into buying into a 30-game stretch.

Steve O: I know it’s a small sample, but have you caught any Jasson Dominguez at bats in the bigs?
Keith Law: Yes but not to alter my opinions of him at all.

PJ: What is the track record of starters like Justin Steele who primarily only throw 2 pitches.  Is success sustainable long-term as a starter?
Keith Law: It’s rare, but there are exceptions. The main thing that makes me think this is sustainable is that he gets RHB out better than LHB, and as a lefty he has some natural advantage against LHB anyway, holding them to a .301 OBP this year.

addoeh: Is Justin Steele a candidate for your annual “guys I was wrong about” column?
Keith Law: He’s on it. It’s running at some point next week.

Alex (Austin): Giants seem to be stuck in this weird place of having money to spend, no one takes their money, and then it seems like they were lucky to miss (Correa, Judge).  Are they ever going to spend this money?
Keith Law: Yes, eventually they’ll find a fit, but as a fan you’d rather they spent that money on the right guys.

Tyler: What are your thoughts on Termarr Johnson’s first full season? 100 walks and around 20 HRs for an 18/19 year old in A/A+ seems like a good start….
Keith Law: That’s not the whole picture, though. He’s hit .243 on the year with a 26% strikeout rate, not great for a guy whose main tool was his ability to hit. You can’t just cherry pick those two counting stats without looking at the entire body of work. I do still like Johnson quite a bit but I really thought he’d make more contact.

JG: Keith, thanks in advance for the chats and the insight. I always learn something new.
Help me make sense of Dusty continuing to start Maldonado over Diaz and Dubon over McCormick.
Keith Law: I’m sure the Maldonado preference is about defense, right or wrong. Isn’t McCormick basically playing every day, just in RF when he’s probably the better choice in CF?

Tony: What are your feelings on Evan Carter this year? Do you believe his profile will succeed in the majors?
Keith Law: Wrote a little about him last night: https://theathletic.com/4843398/2023/09/07/rangers-promote-evan-carter…

Shatkins: Thoughts on Davis Schneider’s Ruthian start? Just a guy, or a starter on a contending team?
Keith Law: Just a guy, without a position.

Mike: Thoughts on Kyle Schwarber, leadoff hitter? Appropriate, if unorthodox, lineup construction? Or waste of a power bat before other runners get on base?
Keith Law: Would prefer to see him bat lower for that reason – HR leader in the leadoff spot seems to leave some runs on the table.

Long Time Listener: What’s wrong with Javier?  He was almost untouchable last year and he looks mediocre this year.
Keith Law: His stuff is down – lower velo on the FB, much less break on the SL – so he’s missing a lot fewer bats. Could be injury, could be fatigue.

Mike: Hi Keith! Do you think Reese Olson will be a solid starter for years to come?
Keith Law: Back-end starter, yes.

Jack: How would you grade Ben cheringtons rebuild up to this point?
Keith Law: He’s significantly boosted the talent in the system, and you’re seeing some of that in the majors. The challenge will be converting that into big-league wins – getting more pitching, getting all these guys to develop at the same time, finding the key to the fourteenth lock on Nutting’s pocketbook.

Alex (Austin): What’s going on with Jack Leiter?
Keith Law: I don’t have a great answer beyond that maybe we were all wrong about the command/control back in college.

G: First of all I want to thank you for standing up for trans rights love you Keith!!! Second, seems like Cade Horton is something to be really excited about as a cub fan. Ive seen people on twitter say he has 4-5 real pitches but don’t really trust that. Just how good is he?? How many real pitches does he have?
Keith Law: Three for sure. Cubs helped him develop a real CH since drafting him – really since the fall – and that changes his whole outlook. Good job by player development on that one.

Tony: With the Reds pumping up all of their prospects, do senzel and india get bumped out to make room for everyone else next year?
Keith Law: Senzel’s time seems like it’s up, but I don’t think they’re as keen to move on from India as that.

Braydon: Has Thomas Saggese’s stock gone up since the trade deadline, or is he just on a huge hot streak?
Keith Law: He’s good. I don’t know if his stock has changed since he’s been on an upward trend for about 15 months now. It’s not like Ragans, whose value today would be way higher than it was at the time of his trade.
Keith Law: Sorry, that is Keith Law Breakout Pick ™ Cole Ragans.

Mark: What in gods name is going on with the Nationals? Some really damning stuff coming out that’s taking the bloom off what has been a surprisingly fun season up until this point.
Keith Law: Are they just dumping salaries to try to prep for a sale? It’s pretty ugly. They let go of a lot of good people, and for a team that needs to keep acquiring talent to get rid of scouts seems really foolish.

Jeremy: I’m going to be in the Chicago area for about a week this fall; what are your must visit places? (Not spending Alinea money, but I’ll be on per diem, so I’m ok spending a bit)
Keith Law: If I could have just one meal there, it would be Monteverde or maybe the Purple Pig.

Alex (Austin): Seiya Suzuki’s statcast page is all red and he seems to be putting up corresponding numbers the last month.  Any reasons for the success spike?
Keith Law: He’s hitting about the same relative to the league as he did last year, at least overall, so I don’t want to read too much into it. I would interpret what he’s done over the last two years as a good indication of his true talent level – above-average bat, solid-average regular.

Carl: Is it concerning that Marcelo Mayer has dealt with nagging injuries in both his pro seasons? Is it fair to say he’s been surpassed by Lawlar?
Keith Law: It would be concerning if it were the same body part getting injured over and over. I’m less concerned since he’s had seemingly unrelated injuries. I don’t think it’s fair to say he’s been surpassed by Lawlar unless your main measure is proximity to the majors. They’re both great prospects.

John: When do you expect Chourio to debut with the Brewers? Is Tyler Black a candidate to be the opening day starter at 3rd base for 2024?
Keith Law: Maybe middle of next year? The good thing for Milwaukee is that they don’t need him with all the other CF options they have (including Garrett Mitchell next year). Chourio’s the long-term answer there but they can take their time with him. It was a tough call between him and Holliday for the #1 spot on the midseason rankings, but Holliday’s a shortstop and that carried the day for me.

Redraft: Knowing what you know now, would you draft Bobby Miller over Strider?  I think I take Miller.
Keith Law: I would too but it’s close.

Deke: Think there’s much chance the Rangers right the ship at this point?
Keith Law: Sure.

Tyler Y: As a lifelong A’s fan, the Las Vegas move is killing me (and also my 8 year old son, who naturally is really struggling to understand why this is happening). I’m not really sure what being a baseball “fan” will mean to me anymore if this happens. Anyway, my question is simply this–can baseball do anything to avoid the short-sighted thinking that would allow a team to flee a top 10 media market to go to Las Vegas purely to get subsidies for a stadium? It isn’t in the best interest of the sport, the players, or really even the A’s in the long-run. But here we are.
Keith Law: MLB can vote to block any team move or sale they want. I don’t think they’ll exercise that in this case because they want the public spigot to keep flowing. If Oakland or California decides to donate a bunch of taxpayer money to John Fisher, that would be better, and then another team could use Vegas as leverage (White Sox? Orioles?), but I don’t see that happening.

Romorr: Sammy Basallo is having a really great season across A/A+, what are the odds he sticks at C? And without catching, a top 100 guy at 1B/DH?
Keith Law: Sounds like he’s a catcher, which makes him a top 50ish guy for me.

Rich Campbell: Of the A’s young position players, who will be viable big leaguers in 5 years? Tyler Soderstrom (21 years old), Lawrence Butler (22), Jordan Diaz (22), Zack Gelof (23), Esteury Ruiz (24), Nick Allen (24), Shea Langeliers (25)?
Keith Law: I feel best about Gelof (bat) and Langeliers (glove) on that list.

Alex: Is Steele one of the guys you’ve missed on the most? 2020 you said he was a 2 pitch reliever.
Keith Law: In 2020 he wasn’t throwing a cutter. I’m fine saying I’m wrong, but he’s not the same guy now that he was in 2020.

Mike: I am infatuated with Nolan Schanuel. Do you think he can tap into meaningful powet?
Keith Law: Some power, not elite power, I think.

Guest: should Colson Montgomery be in line to start next year in Chicago?
Keith Law: I could go either way on this. He missed so much time this year that I don’t think they need to rush him. I’d probably vote for starting him in AAA with the intention for him to stay there for two months or so.

Romorr: I remember a write up you did about Beavers, and it seems since then, he’s taken off a bit. Have you seen him recently, and is there anything different? Surprised the power hasn’t shown up in Bowie yet.
Keith Law: Haven’t seen him recently, sorry.

Kevin: Kyle Teal opening day catcher in 2025 or is that too aggressive?
Keith Law: Any other position I’d say fine, but catching is a much harder job and they may be less inclined to push him.
Keith Law: There’s just way more to learn to be a big-league catcher than to be a big-league anything else.

Hank: What should the Braves do with Vaughn Grissom?
Keith Law: Seems like a trade piece for them.

DNL: Ronnie Mauricio is hitting the ball hard in his cup of coffee, but he’s not getting a lot of lift on the ball. Small sample size, I know, but is his AAA power going to translate to the Majors?
Keith Law: Yes, the power is real. His wrists are so loose and strong that I don’t think he’ll ever have a lot of consistency to the launch angle, though.

DJ: I hate having to ask this, but can we hopefully assume that Urias is fully done, as in will never put on an MLB uniform again?
Keith Law: Assuming the latest allegations are true, then yes, I think this would be the end of the road for him. Let’s say MLB finds sufficient cause to suspend him – he’s probably out for all of next year, and no team is going to rush to sign him after two confirmed DV events, even if he avoids legal consequences. Maybe he works his way back through Japan or another non-MLB league. He got a second chance. If this allegation is true, then what reason would any team have to believe he won’t do this again and again?

Guest: Given that the Phillies play as a 95-win team with Schwarber batting leadoff, are they committed to the bit or is that the best spot for him in their lineup?
Keith Law: Correlation is not causation.

Dave C: How appealing is the Guardians managerial job?  Any thoughts on where they might turn to replace Tito?
Keith Law: Appealing because the front office is considered a good one to work with/for, and there’s certainly some talent there. A bit less than other jobs because the ownership won’t spend. I haven’t looked into candidates, sorry.

Steve O: Is Ben Rice an MLB level talent and does he have a position?
Keith Law: Not really, and no position.

DNL: The Mets are obviously out of it. How important is it for them to get the kids (Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio, Vientos) as close to 100% playing time here on out? Is it a big failure if Showalter doesn’t do that?
Keith Law: I’m in favor of playing the kids as much as possible.

Leo: How the heck did Kyle Teel make it to the Red Sox? He looks like a major leaguer already.
Keith Law: I don’t understand why he and Matt Shaw slid out of the top 10. I had them ranked 6 and 7 in the draft and I know plenty of scouts who saw them in a similar light, probably more for Teel than Shaw. (I had a few guys tease me about how highly I ranked Shaw before the draft. I just really believe in the bat.)

SJ: Long term, do you take Jordan Lawler over Volpe? Do both stick at SS?
Keith Law: I think they have an even chance to stick at short but Volpe is more likely to get that opportunity. If you saw that play Lawlar made last night, though, you see why I don’t want Arizona to rush him off the position. Probably leaning Lawlar overall at this point but it’s close.

Ed: Is Owen Caissie getting close to the top 100 prospects list?  K’s are obviously a concern but he’s still putting up decent OBP and power numbers.
Keith Law: No. This can’t be a serious question.

Mike: Zack Litell had another nice outing. What do you make of him?
Keith Law: Could be a back-end starter. He’s been a bit lucky on BIP, but we’ve seen plenty of guys hang around as starters because they post super low walk rates like he does, which means even the higher HR rates that often come with that are less damaging.

Ruben Amaro (Renaissance Man): Who would you bet on to have a brighter future, Aidan Miller or Justin Crawford?
Keith Law: Crawford is only five months older and has better tools.

Frank: Is Henry Davis going to be a RF long term or does he eventually move back behind the plate?
Keith Law: In the absence of Endy Rodriguez, Davis is probably still catching full-time.

Tracy: Keith, you were somewhat critical about the Nats decision to move Crews from Low A to AA without going to Wilmington (high A).  However, you had mentioned some time ago that balls fly out of Wilmington’s stadium (and therefore a reason *not* to send top pitching prospects there).  Could it be that the Nats didn’t want Crews to become less selective in his swings because it’s easier to hit home runs there?   Thanks in advance.
Keith Law: That’s incorrect – Wilmington is a tough place to homer, while Harrisburg is slightly homer-friendly.

Ken: NL CY, who ya got? Am I wrong to think it’s a 5-6 person race?
Keith Law: Agreed, even trimming the ballot to 5 would be difficult, and I don’t think that race is close to settled. I have NL RoY this year.

Eric: Can the Dodgers have enough starting pitching for the playoffs without Buehler and assumedly Urias?
Keith Law: I wonder what Buehler’s role will be after his rehab. Maybe they’ll let him go a few innings per outing with long rest? Anyway, the short answer is yes, I think they can.

Matt: Is there a team other than the Angels that will allow Otahni to be a 2 way player if he signs with them?
Keith Law: All.

DNL: DJ Stewart: Late bloomer or Mike Jacobs 2.0?
Keith Law: More Jacobs.

Tyler Y: Any chance Gelof’s start is anything but SSS?
Keith Law: I’m in. He can hit.

Tim: With Patrick Bailey establishing himself as the Giants long term catcher, what would you do with Joey Bart?  Does he have any value at this point?  Seems like a change of organizations maybe his best option at this time.
Keith Law: Yes and I think a lot of teams would still value him as a backup for his defense/power with some chance he could be a starter elsewhere.

Ooglas: AL/NL MVPs if season ended today? Has to be Shohei/RAJr, no?
Keith Law: No. There’s this guy in LA, real good bowler…

johnny g: What do you think of the KW/Hahn situation, looking back? Too much dysfunction that resulted in Reinsdorf moving on, or was there a single incident like the Burger trade?
Keith Law: Reinsdorf is the source of the dysfunction.

Ed: Seems like the Cubs need to take a legitimate shot at re-signing Bellinger in the winter.  If they were to land him, though, is it as a 1b once PCA comes up?
Keith Law: Seems like the best solution all around. They’re in a really good spot right now where they’re likely to have more players than lineup spots, and could use some of that position-player depth to swing a trade.
Keith Law: Someone asked me offline about Shaw’s eventual position. I’d consider moving Hoerner to third, where I think he’ll be just as good as he is at second, and put Shaw at the keystone.

Alex: How surprised are you with how well Patrick Bailey has played?  The defense is elite level.  The caught stealing rate is amazing especially considering the new rules.
Keith Law: He was considered a plus defender out of HS, then in college became more valued for the bat while scouts seemed to question the glove more. Maybe they undervalued the glove because he was hitting so well?

Nick V: Do you think there’s any significant benefit to expensive cast iron cookware (e.g. Le Creuset) or is cast iron cast iron?
Keith Law: Le Creuset is enameled cast iron, so it is coated with a very durable nonstick surface, making it very different from traditional cast iron. I own and use both – I used a LC Dutch oven last night, in fact – but you also don’t need to get the most expensive brand.

DNL: How much money does the injury cost Shohei Ohtani?
Keith Law: I wrote a whole column about that: https://klaw.me/3R28MP0

Henry: Do we have any data yet on how the pitch clock may be contributing to pitcher injuries? It seems like the pitcher injury rate is higher overall compared to previous seasons.
Keith Law: I don’t believe the pitcher injury rate is significantly higher than in previous seasons – and I haven’t seen data either way. There has been research pre-pitch clock indicating that it could lead to more injuries if pitchers didn’t ease up on the throttle.

addoeh: How excited are you for the Rugby World Cup?  Would your wife rather see Wales win the RWC or Eagles win the Super Bowl?
Keith Law: She’s in a meeting but I’m pretty sure she’d say the Eagles.

Sedona: Hey Keith.  What do you think about Kerry Carpenter’s breakout?  Is he for real?  Above avg regular?
Keith Law: I think the power/hit is real – low OBP slugger, average to 55 regular. 19th round!

John Cazale: Has Kevin Parada’s development been disappointing, or is it too soon to conclude anything?
Keith Law: Or he’s been fine? I’m not sure what’s disappointing.

Heather: What do you make of the Red Sox’ hitting/pitching mix in the minors?  Are they incapable, or unwilling, to develop any decent pitching?  The two decent guys they’ve come up with, Bello and Crawford, are holdovers from the Dombrowski Era, and there doesn’t seem to be anyone on the horizon.
Keith Law: They don’t seem to want to draft pitching, at least not high, and haven’t brought it in on the international side, at least not to the extent they’ve gone after bats. I understand that to some extent, because the attrition rate on pitchers is so high, but the game still does require pitching and they have next to none in their system. They do have a hell of a group of position player prospects, though. That Portland team is stacked right now, even without Mayer.

Paul: Keith, love all your books. Any plans for a future tome?
Keith Law: Working on something but no official plans yet.

Chad (STL): What do the Cardinals even do? It doesn’t seem like they have the guys coming. Nolan and Paul older, young bats not hitting and ownership that has always been scared to go much above where they are currently salary wise?
Keith Law: I thought trading Arenado would have been the best choice, but if they sign one good FA starting pitcher, is there any real reason they couldn’t contend next year?

Greasy Nick: Just wanted to say I appreciated your review of Trust! I enjoyed it quite a bit and am challenging myself to be a more frequent, thoughtful reader. Reading your review helped me think about the book differently, which is really helpful for building a habit!
Keith Law: you’re quite welcome! I like those book reviews to start conversations – reading is such a subjective experience that I enjoy hearing about how different books hit my readers differently.

Chris: Thoughts on Yanks moving Pereira, Wells, and esp Martian through the system and all the way to bigs?  Too aggressive or might as well?  Also has your opinion on Wells not being a C changed at all?
Keith Law: Wells can’t catch, and he’s probably a platoon bat. I thought the promotions of the two outfielders were a little aggressive, but Pereira’s on the 40 and I think Jasson has to go on this winter so it’s not the end of the world. More “what the heck” than WTF.

DNL: Mitch McConnell (81) froze twice and Nancy Pelosi (83) just announced she’d seek re-election. Putting the Presidential election aside, how should citizens ensure that leader step aside later in their careers?
Keith Law: Dianne Feinstein’s case is the worst of all. She needs to resign yesterday. The system is rigged to keep politicians in their jobs as long as they want them.

addoeh: For Jeremy going to Chicago.  I tried Kasama, a Michelin starred Filipino restaurant a few weeks ago and thought it was really good.  The chicken adobo was excellent.
Keith Law: Call now to try to get in. That restaurant was on The Bear and apparently it’s impossible to get in now.

Jim: Has Johan Rojas done enough in 100 PA to take over full time in CF for the Phils in ’24?
Keith Law: I like Rojas but that’s a hard no.

Ryan: Keith, as best as I can recall the Diamondbacks haven’t been able to convert a pitching prospect into a successful major league pitcher in quite some time now, and the early returns on Pfaadt/Nelson/Jameson aren’t exactly promising on this front. What is your level of concern on these three? Do you think maybe having launching pad environments in Reno and Amarillo at the AAA and AA levels plays some part in this organizational difficulty?
Keith Law: They are early returns, and that’s the most salient part of your question. None of those guys has pitched that much in the majors yet, and guys do adjust and change over time.

Henry: Is Manfred ever going to get off his high horse about baseball stadiums producing local economic growth? It simply doesn’t.
Keith Law: Of course not. He’s not paid to tell the truth. He’s paid to increase the financial well-being of the 30 owners who employ him. If that means lying about decades of economic research showing that sports stadia do not produce local economic growth, so be it.

Sedona: What is the most likely scenario for Michael Busch?  Traded?  3B of the future?
Keith Law: Seems like he’s headed for a trade, no? Not basing that on gossip or anything concrete.

Tom: Hey Keith, been enjoying your content (sports and non-sports) for years, much appreciate it!  Thoughts on Chiam Bloom potentially being out of Boston this offseason and that team’s direction as a whole?  He’s done well with the ML system, trades have been mixed but he seems reluctant to add in free agency as most big market teams do.  Or is that ownership more likely?
Keith Law: I do not understand the ire towards Bloom. The position-player depth in their farm system has improved substantially just in the last six months, and I think the FA reticence you cite is from ownership, not him.

Sedona: Do you buy Frasso as a starter?  Has River Ryan confirmed your outlook by his performance this yr?  Regular starter?
Keith Law: If you watch Frasso, you’ll see why it’s hard to project him as a starter. All in on Ryan as a starter, though.

Zirinsky: Keith: Lots of “the Yankees are too analytics focused” in the NY media. This is dopey but do you hear anything around the game that validates this in any way?
Keith Law: I think that is a valid criticism at a very micro level that is getting blown up by writers who lack the curiosity to understand what they’re talking about. The Yankees may be focusing a little too much on the wrong metrics. That is not “too analytics focused.” This is a quest for knowledge that will see a lot of teams chase the wrong things. The Cubs bet big on the pitch metrics around Cade Horton’s breaking ball last June, and it had a chance to blow up spectacularly. It didn’t, but that’s the kind of risk you’ll see teams take as data and our analysis of it continue to grow and evolve.

TomBruno23: I have a friend, let’s call him Sean, who is very concerned about Chase Davis’ performance so far in the FSL. What can I tell him to assuage his worries?
Keith Law: The FSL is a pretty lousy place to hit.

TomBruno23: Are you an Immaculate Gridder?
Keith Law: I am not, sorry.

Jon V: Thoughts on what Cleveland is doing? They seem to be all over the place and are now giving ABs to guys like Calhoun and Laureano who have a very small chance of impacting the 2024 roster.
Keith Law: A little confused by the seemingly contradictory directions they’re taking. I also don’t get playing Arias at SS over Rocchio.

Kevin: If Wander never plays again, is that the biggest waste of talent you have ever seen?
Keith Law: That phrasing makes me a little uncomfortable … I guess if you’re saying is that the most talent to go unfulfilled, yeah, he would be up there.

Jackie: When I was a kid, we did the Chevy Chase vacation, and loaded up the station wagon to drive from Massachusetts to Disney World and back one summer.  On our way down, my dad pulled off I-95 unexpectedly, pulled into a parking lot, and said, “All right, everybody out!”  We got out of the car, confused, and Dad said, “All right, you can tell everyone you’ve been to Delaware.  There’s no reason to ever come back here.  Back in the car!”  And we drove on.
Keith Law: He was so wrong. Winterthur, Nemours, several art museums, the Blue Rocks, the beaches, Market Street in Wilmington… hey, we even have a murderer on the loose just over the state line!

Ken: NL CY follow-up: how does Strider trail two of his fellow Atlanta pitchers in WAR, is the ERA that big a component?
Keith Law: Isn’t he leading in fWAR? I haven’t looked in a few days. rWAR is ERA-based, fWAR is component-based.

wickethewok: Any interest in Baldur’s Gate 3? I recall you being a fan of a previous iteration
Keith Law: Yes but I’m terrified to start it and lose 80-100 hours of my life.

Bob: Crews’ timeline the same as Skenes’ – next June?
Keith Law: He gets there sooner, IMO. Wouldn’t shock me if he debuted this month.

Marani: So, which B- two-time All-Star from the 80s or 90s gets into the Hall of Fame this winter?  I can’t believe we haven’t enshrined Scott Cooper yet.
Keith Law: Bob Knepper is disappointed you didn’t push for him.

Expos: Have you been to Montreal recently? Any good food recommendations?
Keith Law: No, sorry. Been 25 years, I think.

Nick: What are Os doing to be hitting on so many of their hitting prospects they draft
Keith Law: They draft and develop well. It’s a combination of things.

TomBruno23: Credit to Nick Ahmed for maxing out his MLB career. 3rd all time in games played by a UConn Huskie (Walt Dropo, George Spinger) and over 500 more than the next guy on the list (Roberto Hernandez).
Keith Law: Yep. Saw him in college, never thought he’d get this kind of run as a position player. Pretty good reliever in college too.

TomBruno23: Is Kade Kretschmar getting close to the top 100 prospects list? Already up to Peoria after signing as an undrafted free agent in July.
Keith Law: No, not in the least. He’s 23.

DevilInLaw: is Elly De La Cruz a future superstar or is the bloom a bit off that rose at this point?
Keith Law: Has superstar ceiling.

Scott U: Is Mason Miller a top end SP or a back end SP at the end of the day?
Keith Law: Reliever. No history of staying healthy. It’s a lot of shoulder stuff, too.

Bobby Cox: LAD just announced Buehler is done for year
Keith Law: Ah, well. Nevertheless

Steve O: Is Drew Thorpe a Guy, or is he more of a 5th starter/good reliever?
Keith Law: Could see a fifth starter there, but the FB is too light to see league-average.

Jon V: Bibee or Williams?
Keith Law: I’m a Bibee guy.

DNL: If you were a closer, what would your walkup song be?
DOB: Keith Law is always pro NY or LA
Keith Law: right, those are the same city
Keith Law: christ, how tiny is your world view if you think someone is biased towards NY and LA

John 2: Kevin Alcantara basically had the same season at a higher level this year as last year. Is it just a matter of time before he breaks out? Is getting stronger really the key, or does the hit tool need to improve?
Keith Law: I like the trend but yes, I think there is (and needs to be) some more strength. He’s gained muscle and improved his body control and coordination so the swing is far more consistent. He still has room for 20+ more pounds and that should be the kind that leads to power.

Matt: Bernie a 80 tool guy? https://twitter.com/janeosanders/status/1700181183567433976
Keith Law: Hey, that’s pretty impressive. I hope I move that well at that age.

Jason: In response to the question about our gerontocracy, thanks for not advocating for term limits that just shift power to bureaucrats, lobbyists, and career staff. At least voters have the option to vote for somebody else (especially in Senate races that can’t be gerrymandered)
Keith Law: Agreed. Term limits are a bad solution.

Jon: All signs are pointing towards Steve Cohen finally being able to hire David Stearns.  What do you see him being able to do with all of the resources the Mets (finally) have at their disposal?
Keith Law: I mean, the Mets went out and spent a bunch of money last winter and that didn’t help. They’ve drafted extremely well over the last decade. What did Stearns do while running the Brewers that would apply to the Mets?

TomBruno23: KLaw I was totally kidding about Kretschmar playing off that one from earlier.
Keith Law: oh sorry, I often can’t tell when questions are sarcastic on here.

Paul: No idea whether the pizza is any good or not, but its great to see customers supporting Dragon Pizza and standing up to that A$$hole.
Keith Law: Yep. Nobody likes a bully.

Yinka Double Dare: I’d much rather hang out in the Delaware beach towns than the Jersey ones.
Keith Law: Agreed. Visit The Station on Kings in Lewes for lunch and take it to a picnic on the beach.
Keith Law: OK, I went a little long this week since it had been ages since my last chat. Thanks so much for all of your questions. My column on guys I was wrong about should run next week, followed by my minor league player of the year column, and then my hypothetical awards ballots in the final week of the season. Stay safe.

Check out my redraft of the 2013 MLB draft class if you’re a subscriber to the Athletic. The companion piece, looking at the first-round picks from 2013 who didn’t pan out, will run on Friday.

Keith Law: Pick me up and shake the doubt. Klawchat.

Ben: favorite restaurant in Newark DE?
Keith Law: I almost never eat down there – there’s plenty up here by us in Wilmington, or in Kennett Square if we want something a little different.

Adam: Is Orlando Arcia’s season real? Or SSS
Keith Law: A .394 BABIP isn’t sustainable, especially not for a guy whose career BABIP in the majors was around .290 coming into this year. That said, I think a little of the improvement is real this year – he’s making a lot more hard contact than ever, after already showing some improvement in that area in 2022, so I would buy him as a regular, just not a star like he’s been so far this year.

Adam: When Acuna goes 40/60 while hitting .320 and winning MVP will that be the greatest single season ever?
Keith Law: No.

ChicagoSteve: Hate to be a total homer, but I have to ask about George Wolkow’s draft prospects. How does his commitment to South Carolina affect the likelihood that he’ll be drafted? Any insights into his signability?
Keith Law: I don’t discuss signability unless it’s very public already – and in many cases what I know about signability is hearsay to the point that I can’t be certain it’s accurate.

Dave: I read that Dylan Crews pulled himself out of the draft when coming out of high school. Do you remember where he was graded from a talent perspective? Would he have been a top-10 pick? First round? Later? Thank you for all the great insights about the draft.
Keith Law: I saw him in HS, right before the world ended. He came into the year as a likely first-rounder, probably top 15, and then got off to a subpar start with more swing and miss than usual, only to have his season end due to the pandemic. The thought at the time he withdrew was that he knew he wasn’t going to be drafted as high as he wanted/expected so he chose to skip it entirely. Can’t say it was a bad decision.

addoeh: Looking forward to the mushroom and truffle pizza at Serious Pie in Seattle?
Keith Law: I am not familiar with this – haven’t been to Seattle in over 20 years, actually.

Brendan B: No question. Just screaming into the void for Bo Naylor to catch 6 days/week in MLB and Amed Rosario to stop blocking 5 shortstop prospects in Cleveland.
Keith Law: Yep. Naylor and Rocchio and LFG.

Greasy Nick: Interesting to see PCA slightly downgraded by some folks (presumably) due to the swing and miss in his game. Do you think he has the chops to be an above average hitter?
Keith Law: Not sure what you mean – I haven’t downgraded him anywhere. He’s driving the ball more this year, if anything.

Slothburg: Victor Bericoto & Tyler Fitzgerald both having great starts to the season. Any chance either of them profile as regulars at their respective positions?
Keith Law: Fitzgerald was 25 in AA – I’ve seen him, don’t think he’s more than an up and down guy. I haven’t seen Bericoto.

Adam: Has AJ Minter exceeded your expectations? I understand he’s a reliever but during his rise through the minors you were pretty low on him I feel like
Keith Law: No, I said he’d be a reliever and he has been.

Mike: Think the nats should give cj abrams some time in aaa?
Keith Law: I don’t think that would do him any good. He needs to get stronger, not to go face lesser competition.

Matt W: What do you see as Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s likely upside? MLB regular, bench player..?
Keith Law: Platoon or part-time player. I think RH breaking stuff is going to give him a ton of trouble in the majors.

Chris: Would Giolito as a rental fetch a top 100 prospect at the deadline?
Keith Law: I think so, but I also don’t spend any time asking FO people about hypothetical trade value. It’s more from seeing what comparable guys returned in past years.

Deke: So … Wingspan. My brother’s family and my family have gotten together to play board games regularly. Catan, Carcassonne, Ticket to Ride, we love that sort. We tried Wingspan a while back and the whole collection of us could not make heads or tails of the instructions. It was a huge letdown after seeing you and so many others talk it up as the best game ever. Is there some trick we needed to try? We couldn’t even figure out how to get started in a “start playing and you’ll figure it out” sort of way.
Keith Law: I would suggest finding the Watch It Played video on youtube for it – Rodney Smith does those, in conjunction with the publishers, and I think he has the best and clearest instructional videos out there. Wingspan is daunting to start, but actually not that complex to play once you get going. It’s just of information to gather a lot up front.

Mike: When does ben brown get the call? Is he more of a mid rotation sp or back end?
Keith Law: Could be mid rotation, of course back end more likely.

Michael: Hey Klaw- wondering if you’ve had a chance to see Orion Kerkering? Or heard anything from scouts. Any chance there is something there other than an 80 grade name? Could he be a GUY? Thanks!
Keith Law: Straight reliever, huge spin on two pitches, command and control very questionable. I’d move him up quickly though – he’s just getting guys out with pure stuff now, not being forced to work on locating.

Mike: Is Trey Lipscomb a potential regular?
Keith Law: No.

Aaron C.: Please build us your perfect sandwich. Type of bread, condiments, protein(s), etc. Spare no details, klaw.
Keith Law: Something like this: Turkey on any sort of rye, some kind of flavored mayo like chipotle or sriracha or failing that a little mayo and mustard, lettuce, pickles, pickled onions, roasted red peppers, oregano, salt. If I’m home, I use Penzey’s sandwich sprinkle.

Ryan: Small sample size but Salas almost has a .400 OBP in Low A as a 17 year old. Do you think he could make the majors by the time he’s 20?
Keith Law: You’re cherrypicking a little there – he’s drawing walks at a crazy clip (over 20%), but the rest of the line is just fine until you consider his age. I do think he can see the majors by the time he’s 20, but I don’t think this small sample so far has changed anything except maybe to indicate that he’s not overmatched like most 17-year-olds would be.

Matt: Not an A’s fan, but why can’t MLB force the owner to sell? I remember when Oakland had the highest payroll in baseball back in the Bash Brothers days. They clearly have the fanbase.
Keith Law: On what grounds?

Alex in Austin: Would you move Luis Matos in your rankings at all based on the first 2 months performance?
Keith Law: Less on performance specifically but on health & return to how he looked in 2021 pre-injury when he did make my top 100.

Guest: I doubt that Vientos is a star but why bring him up just to sit him? Why not leave him in the minors if they aren’t willing to play him?
Keith Law: I wonder if this is another case where the FO brought up a guy Buck doesn’t like so he won’t play him.

Mac: Probably didnt make the cut for your first round misses piece but, as a Stanford fan, what was the downfall of Austin Wilson?
Keith Law: He wasn’t a first-rounder, so no. I thought the swing never recovered post-Stanford. I know some scouts who never thought he was that advanced a hitter.

Alex: Have you changed your long term outlook on Kyle Bradish based on his performance this year and last, or do you still see him as a future reliever?
Keith Law: No change. He had a nearly 5 ERA last year, so I’m not sure how that would change anything. Baltimore’s defense helps him a lot (which is to the team’s credit).

Andrew: I read a stat that the Tigers have produced 20 less WAR from their hitting than the next worse club. I’m really hoping Langford falls to 3, as a fan tired of bad at bats.
Keith Law: They have to take the right guy, and then develop him. I was never wild about Torkelson, but come on – I don’t think anybody thought he’s struggle as much as he has (acknowledging that he’s started to hit more this month).

Aaron C.: Almost time for the 2023 half-year award. Best meal you’ve had so far this year? Best dessert?
Keith Law: Best meal I’ve had this year was at Talula’s Table in Kennett Square. Honorable mentions to Laser Wolf in Philly, Juniper & Ivy in San Diego, Baba in St. Petersburg. Best dessert was the coffee ganache-topped ‘yodel’ at Juniper & Ivy.

Dana: Should the Yankees bite the bullet and swap Volpe for Peraza, at least in the short term?
Keith Law: Not a bad idea. Also, again, a reminder that making major roster decisions off spring training performance is generally not a good idea. It’s like hiring off the interview rather than the resume.

Dallas: Liover Pegiero seems to be heating up in AA and is still only 22. Do you foresee him having a future in the big leagues, and what should the pirates do with their glutony of middle infield prospects?
Keith Law: I like Peguero but he’s repeating the level, so we need to see him carry over these improvements to AAA.

James: Are we concerned about Emmanuel Rodriguez’ K rate yet? Any change on his potential outcomes or still too early to make any difference?
Keith Law: He was promoted to high A after just 47 games in low A and then a season-ending injury. And he’s only 20. I’d have a lot more patience with him.

Jesse B: Any concern with Kevin Alcantara not walking or hitting hrs?
Keith Law: More the BB and K numbers. The homers will come. Still young, but not what I was hoping for.

Mike: Favorite east coast beach?
Keith Law: I am not a beach person, sorry.

Ryan: Where do you think Tanner Witt fits in this upcoming draft? Obviously he hasn’t looked incredible this early off TJ, though it seems like what you would expect. Dodgers first pick(seems very Dodgersy) to the Comp B round seem realistic for him?
Keith Law: I think something like that – some team hoping they’re nabbing a first-rounder on the cheap.

Duder: How far does Jacob Wilson drop?
Keith Law: Who says he’s dropping?

Duder: Who’s got the most helium and could slip into the 1st round who you never would have guessed would get there at the start of the year?
Keith Law: That is easily Joe Whitman at Kent State.

HH: I have heard much less about pitcher abuse by college coaches the last couple of years. Have thing actually improved?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. I think one big reason is they know people are watching, including scouts and recruits.

Chris: How excited should I get as a Brewers fan about Jacob Misiorowski’s early-career returns? Can be become an elite pitching prospect?
Keith Law: I wrote him up last month – that delivery is not going to let him be a starter. https://bit.ly/3BFXPtJ

JR: Remember all the weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth about universal DH? And now you hear almost nothing about it? Guess it didn’t ruin the game after all!
Keith Law: Yep. Now they’re complaining about other things that might “ruin” the game.

chauncey: what is wrong with the mets?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s one single thing but perhaps betting that much on older starting pitchers wasn’t a great plan.

Brian in NoVA: At what point does Baltimore start thinking of trading about some of their position players prospects to get some pitching? It feels like they have their window of contention is getting close.
Keith Law: Now, right? I feel like this July is that time.

Reedy: Is there anything to fix with Cam Collier? He oozes talent but the numbers are not following thus far.
Keith Law: He’s fine. He’s younger than many high school guys in this draft.

Jason: thoughts on Roman Anthony?\
Keith Law: Interesting choice to promote a guy based primarily on his batted-ball data without expecting to see more in-game results. He was a really interesting upside play in last year’s draft, though, so I believe it’s real and he’s going to be one of their top prospects by year-end.

Guest: With the passing of Cormac McCarthy, what are your thoughts on his legacy? I know you have a couple of his books on your all-time favorite list. Will he be regarded as one of the best American writers?
Keith Law: I think he already is. Look at a lot of what was written about him this past week. And I know Harold Bloom had already said McCarthy was among the American greats.

Drew: Sheehan, Frasso, and Knack have all been outstanding. Do any of them project as an ace? Or mid/back end guys?
Keith Law: If Sheehan sticks in the rotation, he’ll be an above-average one. The other two I think are very likely relievers, albeit good ones.

Teej: Are you making your way to San Diego this year? Any thoughts on Luis Matos that wasn’t already covered in your “just missed”?
Keith Law: I was out there in April. Matos looks completely healthy and like everything that was wrong last year, into the AFL, may just have been about being less than 100%.

Alex: Any sense of how the league values Jordan Westburg? Seems weird that the Orioles haven’t promoted him yet.
Keith Law: I agree that it’s weird that he and Ortiz are still in AAA. I understand Mateo provides a lot of value on defense, but he’s a .250 OBP guy. He might be the worst everyday hitter in baseball right now.

davealden53: Happy belated 50th.  How sustainable is Ezequiel Duran’s 2023 performance?  The BABiP shows some luck but not enough to explain his output.  And where will he play?
Keith Law: My only real question is whether a guy who’s this much of a free swinger will continue to get enough pitches to hit hard – and he does hit it hard, often – to keep this up.

Joshua: What are your thoughts on who Rizzo would take at #2 if both Crews and Skenes were available? Thanks!
Keith Law: I think they take Crews if he’s there, for a whole host of reasons, not least of which is that he’s the best player in the draft and I can’t think of a time when Rizzo had that opportunity and didn’t go for it. He took Strasburg and Harper and paid them accordingly. He took Rendon at 6 when Rendon came into that year as a probable 1-1 guy, or at least on the very short list, before he got hurt. Mike’s a scout at heart. He’s not passing on the best talent.

Alex in Austin: You have been pretty tough on UVA development in the past, particularly with pitchers.  Is there a specific reason that many of their arms improve after leaving Charlottesville?
Keith Law: For years they’ve pushed pitchers to all adopt the same ‘crouch’ delivery, and it doesn’t work for most guys. So then pitchers like Mike Vasil get into pro ball and take off because they can restore their old deliveries or at least find something that works better for them.

rob: have you watched enough of Pierce Bennett from Wake forest to know if he’s a an MLB prospect?
Keith Law: He’ll be a nice senior sign next month. I have seen him but I don’t know if he’s more than that – it’s very much a contact approach without any juice.

Jon: Favorite McCarthy novel?  RIP.
Keith Law: The Road. Although that’s more of a “I respect the hell out of this novel” than something I would say is a great summer read.

Jason: What can Georgia expect from Wes Johnson as a head coach?
Keith Law: Really have no idea – what makes you a good pitching coach doesn’t necessarily make you a good head coach/manager.

Wampus Cat: Any starting pitching help in the minors not named Andrew Abbott that might be able to help the Reds’ stay relevant in a weak NL Central this season?
Keith Law: Not this year – I think they’ve tried everyone. Some bright spots further down like Lyon Richardson but he’s not coming up in 2023.

Dodgers: Outside of changing ownership, what lessons could an also-ran like the Rockies learn from the Dodgers?  The Dodgers seem to have mastered — or as close to it — player evaluation and development.
Keith Law: I know Schmidt just became GM less than a year ago, so I’d like to give him more time, but under the previous regime they just fell further and further behind other clubs in basically anything R&D.

Guest: Where is Westburg’s likely defensive home: 3B or 2B?
Keith Law: I think 3B but also think he can handle 2B.
Keith Law: They’ve done a really good job with him.

Matt: Signs you are in a good restaurant? For me, it’s no salt and pepper on the table because the food is going to be seasoned properly.
Keith Law: Fair.

Brent: Wait, no cheese on your sandwich?
Keith Law: Correct. A lot of that is being hilariously lactose intolerant – literally had a GI doctor laugh at my test results – so I never acquired the taste for most of the cheeses you’d put on a sandwich.

Maitan: What went wrong with Kevin Maitan?
Keith Law: He peaked around age 14.

TheRealHenryFPotter: Other than C. Montgomery, assuming he ever gets healthy, do the White Sox have ANYONE on the farm who can be considered A GUY? And do you have any insight as to why they have such a hard time developing pitching at the minor league level?
Keith Law: I would like to think Bryan Ramos could be now that he’s back playing. They haven’t drafted a lot of pitching high, have they? And not a college arm in a while.

RA: How strong of a case is Junior Caminero making for your mid season top 25?
Keith Law: I do a midseason top 50 and he would be on that, I believe. That’s for after the draft … another reason I hate the late draft date, it pushes the post-draft prospect ranking too far back.

Guest: Two questions – is Skenes likely to go to the Washington Nationals and are there any board games on the ratification of the 19th Amendment that you can recommend?
Keith Law: That seems like a plug for Votes for Women!

Carrie: Thoughts on Daniel Lynch going forward?
Keith Law: He hasn’t looked like the same guy this year. Velocity down, fastball was always too true but it’s even more so now and it looks like his breaking pitches have backed up too.

Big Fan: Hi Keith, have you dug into what’s going on with Spencer Strider his last few starts?
Keith Law: Nope, sorry.

Austin: Who do the pirates take #1 overall?
Keith Law: I had them taking Crews in my last mock and I’ll have another one up next week.

G: Are the Cubs doing things right? Entering the 3rd year of a sell off is excruciating from a fans perspective
Keith Law: In general, yes.

Jon: How is the college process going?  Any suggestions for a parent?  Not looking forward to this.
Keith Law: It’s certainly overwhelming. There’s too much information out there and I know I am not well-equipped to process it all. We’re lucky that my daughter has a counselor at her school who is an expert and is helping guide us through the process – I can see now why parents pay for that kind of service.

Reid: I love watching Bobby Miller pitch and I re-read your LAD prospect writeup in February and found it to be very accurate.  It’s interesting to me that his performance has improved since being promoted, against some good competition too.  Do you think this is because of better pitch sequencing, an adjustment to the slider, and the early shoulder injury affecting him in AAA?  4 starts is not the biggest sample size but do you think he’ll continue to pitch at this level for the rest of the season?
Keith Law: The safe bet is to say he’ll regress somewhat the rest of the season because he’s been so good. I also think the environment in AAA is so different now for several reasons that the stat lines there are less reliable than ever.

Justin Y: Thoughts on Carson Whisenhunt, starter or reliever?
Keith Law: Starter.

Guest: Would you be interested in replacing Padma?
Keith Law: Did she step down?

Jay: Have you checked your fridge lately?  Is your milk, ketchup, and mustard, and eggs woke?  Seriously, my head explodes knowing that there are about 50% of people who think this is a major concern.
Keith Law: I regret to announce that (checks notes) Organic Valley has fallen.

Subscriber: Care to share your opinion on the recent layoffs at The Athletic?
Keith Law: Really?

Todd Boss: Wyatt Langford Question: if he’s really that good a CF, why wasn’t he playing there full time all season?  Why is he playing a corner so Florida can give the majority of its CF innings to a redshirt freshman hitting .230?
Keith Law: He’s not that good a CF and don’t believe anyone claiming the contrary. The hope is some pro coach(es) can help him become a CF, given his speed, but he’s not a good CF right now.

Ben: The Twins continue to bench or pinch hit Alex Kirilloff against LH … He’s never had poor splits and has probably been the best bat on the roster all year. Kyle Garlick doesnt deserve ABs over him due to splits. Any idea what they are doing ???
Keith Law: It’s disappointing – he’s old enough now to just let him play every day.

Carl: Have we seen enough from Nick Yorke this year to say he’s back on track?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

Drew: Has Chase Hampton jumped Warren in prospect status? He seems to have some real helium.
Keith Law: I think he’s probably their best SP prospect now.

Noah: Does Moises Ballesteros have a chance to catch in the majors? His future outlook?
Keith Law: He can hit, but that body is going to make it very, very tough for him to stay anywhere on the field.

Jon: Soccer has for years been dealing with sovereign wealth fund ownership, and now golf (the sport) is practically owner by sovereign wealth.  To this point, the major American sports have avoided this.  With team prices continuing to increase, do you think it is inevitable?  Hope not.
Keith Law: I do.

Chris: Just reading Chase Hampton has been moved to AA, thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Saw him in May and wrote him up here: https://klaw.me/42co3ih

Guest: Will Encarnation Strand be in your mid season top 50?
Keith Law: No.

Matt: Elly DLC came in firing on all cyclinders, but was cooled off by Royals pitching???  What are your thoughts on his start?
Keith Law: Contact is going to be an issue for him for a while – he got to the majors really fast, and I think there’s going to be a lot of adjustments going forward to pitch types & locations. He’s aggressive because he’s so talented but MLB pitchers can take advantage of that.

TheRealHenryFPotter: Follow up to the White Sox minor league pitching question: in recent years they’ve drafted Matthew Thompson, Drew Dalquist, and Jared Kelley (High School, but still) and they all seem to have plateaued, and not very high. The exception is Garrett Crochet, who I don’t feel they developed… he was drafted ready for his role.
Keith Law: And Kelley was always pretty high risk. Still, that’s just 3 HS arms, not that many to draw any broad conclusions.

Nathanael: Hi Keith, do you ever get down to Richmond, VA for Double A scouting?  Great town for food if you’re ever out here.  Great work on the redraft today as usual.
Keith Law: Last year, to see Kyle Harrison.

Colin: Who of the dodgers pitchers left in the minors has the best chance to become an ace or even a #2?
Keith Law: River Ryan.

shaff: Which happens first: I-95 fully reopens or Jackson Holliday makes the majors?
Keith Law: Given the incentives to reopen the highway and the incentives to hold guys down in the minors, I say I-95 reopens.

Nathanael: With the A’s pending departure, I wonder why the Giants were so adamant about the potential move to San Jose in 2013.  Wouldn’t moving further away to San Jose have been preferable to playing 15 minutes away in Oakland.  Vegas just seems like an awful market.
Keith Law: I’ll believe they’re moving when they actually play a game there. This is a disaster on many levels – Vegas will be the smallest media market in MLB, they already have two major sports teams there and at least one minor one I know of (not counting the Aviators), and the whole area is going to run out of water.

Appa Yip Yip: I really want the anti-woke people to learn that Glenn Burke was the co-creator of the high five along with Dusty Baker. Glenn was gay, high fiving is gay, I didn’t make the rules they gotta boycott high fives now.
Keith Law: There’s a kids’ book about it – I think it’s called A High Five for Glenn Burke.

Howie: Keith – when in Seattle consider getting the Caribbean Roast sandwich at Un Bien in Ballard. Amazing baguette, fall apart (not shredded) pork, thick caramelized onions, garlic aioli, romaine and pickled jalapenos. A messy sandwich, but one to remember.
Keith Law: That sounds great, and like it would be the only meal I would eat that day.

Danny: I asked a couple weeks ago but you responded Austin Wells just got back from injury. Now he’s had 30+ games in AA and has 340ish AB at that level. Is defense the only thing keeping him down and shouldn’t the Yankees at least start trying at him at different positions in that case?
Keith Law: That’s less than a full season in AA, and even this year in a small sample he’s still punching out 35% of the time vs LHP. I do agree they should try him more at first base, at least. I wonder if they’re leaving him in AA to try to keep up some trade value.

Shawn: What’s the appropriate level of skepticism for a pitcher under 6 feet tall?
Keith Law: To me it’s mostly a function of how the stuff plays from that height, rather than an injury issue. I don’t know of any evidence that being sub 6′ makes a guy more injury prone. I do know a lot of those guys don’t work out as starters because they don’t get good angle on the fastball. But guys who sink it or otherwise get a big vertical break can mitigate that.

Danny: I think you had Brock Porter going to the Yankees in your last predraft mock last year and we now know Porter signed for almost a million more the Yankees gave Spencer Jones. Do you know if the Yankees had Porter higher than Jones if the money was equal?
Keith Law: I think I had them on Jones somewhere – maybe the prior mock? – so he may very well have been their target all along.
Keith Law: Gotta run but thanks as always for all of the questions and for reading. I’ll try to fit in a Q&A next week around the mock, and I’ll have a third mock the week after that, and before you know it it’ll be draft day. Take care & stay safe.

Keith Law: May the lines sag heavy and deep tonight. Klawchat!

Dan: What to make about Torkelson? He’s just not gonna be a guy huh?
Keith Law: I don’t know what to make of him – he does make hard contact, enough that he should at least be hitting for more average and at least occasional power. I’ll say I was thrilled to see Riley Greene fulfilling my breakout prediction until this very unfortunate injury, not just for me or even for the kid, but because the Tigers need a development success story. Here’s hoping he’s the first of many. But Torkelson … I’m not giving up on him, at all, but I keep going back to when I saw him the first time and didn’t think the tools matched the huge production. I thought he was just a guy, a solid college hitter without the huge upside you’d want at 1-1. I figured I got him wrong.

J.P.: Happy birthday, Keith. Do you believe Josue DePaula is ready for the Cal League? What’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: I honestly can’t say if he’s ready or not – we have so little data of any sort, and when I saw him this spring all he did for me was walk.

Ross: Happy 50th Keith! Keep up the great work and thank you for attempting to use your platforms for the greater good as well. Many of us see you and appreciate you.
Keith Law: Thank you. And Happy Pride Month to all my readers.

Appa Yip Yip: What is Anthony Bass’s greater sin in the eyes of MLB, posting anti-LGBT propaganda, or the specific propaganda calling for the boycott of one of his own team’s biggest sponsors? Also shout out to the CN Tower crew that was some excellent trolling.
Keith Law: I don’t know what the league thinks, although history tells us going after corporate sponsors is not the smartest plan. But I don’t think MLB wants to be associated with anti-LGBT sentiment, either. The historical trend here is clear – public sentiment is shifting towards tolerance and acceptance, and away from bigotry, and away from religiosity in general, something that’s been happening for decades. Brands aren’t stupid. They follow the money.
Keith Law: I’m a little surprised Trevor Williams’s comments haven’t gotten more attention. I’m an ex-Catholic, and he pretty much got everything wrong.

JT: Ethan Salas’s campaign seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train. Why is he so popular?
Keith Law: Heh. He might be the next Wander Franco. He’s got everything you want in a prospect that young.
Keith Law: I’m going to be fascinated to see how fast they move him. He’s an advanced defender and he’s bilingual, so two of the factors that can slow catching prospects down are already taken care of.

Brian: Do you think the breakout seasons for Estrada and Wade are real or will the come back down to earth?
Keith Law: Thairo? Not sustainable. Nice bench player, but the approach isn’t there, and he’s rocking a .371 BABIP that’s about 80 points above anything he’s done in the majors before. Lamonte Wade’s is a little more ‘real,’ and I think he could carve out a few years as a soft regular because he’s always had a decent approach and I think Kapler & co. do extremely well with those guys.

Brian: Is Luis Matos a top 50 prospect right now?
Keith Law: Let’s say he’s back on the top 100. I’m thrilled, really – liked him a ton going into last year, still saw the athleticism in the AFL.

Johnny Mo: Happy Birthday Keith! Nolan Gorman… Are the off-season changes to approach and swing mechanics legit or are we looking at a SSS?
Keith Law: I think he’s legit.

Guest: Happy Birthday Keith! Cubs fan here. What are your thoughts on last years Cubs draft so far? Horton, Ferris, and a few other pitchers have been looking good so far.
Keith Law: Horton’s really been up and down so far, and Ferris is throwing 3 innings a start. I think the jury is still out on those guys – or we should still have the opinions/outlooks we had coming out of the draft until we see a lot more from them.

Karl: Happy Birthday!  Thank you for all that you do.
Keith Law: Thank you!

Trey: Has Luis Matos showed enough this season to warrant a call up?
Keith Law: No. Way too little of a sample.

Benjamin: Thoughts on Jose Miranda & his future?
Keith Law: Victim of circumstance. He’s a regular for someone. Twins might just not have a place for him. Would really help if he had more (any) defensive value.

Tim: Have your EROD thoughts changed much since preseason?
Keith Law: He looked like the old E-Rod before the injury. I have no idea what to make of this particular issue with this finger, but if he recovers fully I see no reason he can’t be the same pitcher again.

Johnny Mo: Have you heard any industry chatter about what actually went down with Willson Contreras saga?
Keith Law: No, but I also haven’t asked anyone. Not really my beat.

Kevin W: You mentioned you eat worse traveling? Why is that? I tend to eat less calories on the road as I’m busy, less snacks, etc.
Keith Law: I often have to eat quickly to get to a game, or eat late after a game, which limits my options. And eating out almost always means more calories than when I eat at home.

Josh: Louie Varland & Bailey Ober — middle rotation guys? BOR?
Keith Law: Varland might prove me wrong. I didn’t think he was a long-term starter but he looks really, really good.

Keith: David Festa — just a guy, or a GUY?
Keith Law: I think just a guy.

Chuck: Have you heard any reports on Kristian Robinson’s progress? I’m rooting for him.
Keith Law: No but he homered last night and that’s great to see. He’s lost so much time, though, that it’s hard to see him ever recovering his prior prospect status.

Jay: Happy 200th birthday, Strong Bad!

Is there any reason for the A’s not to deal Brent Rooker for a horde of teenage lottery tickets?
Keith Law: No reason at all. Would be good for him too.

Kevin W: when should the reds trio be called up? Ces, Abbott, and dlc.
Keith Law: Abbott should be up already. I don’t think there’s a rush with Elly – his approach is still a work in progress – and I think Encarnacion-Strand is going to struggle big-time with big league breaking stuff.

Dave: How much should I believe in Ronny Mauricio’s breakout?
Keith Law: This may sound paradoxical, but I’m more inclined to believe in it because it’s not driven by a big bump in BB rate. Walks are way up in AAA because of the use of the automated system – last I looked it was 15% in the IL, 20% in the PCL, although that’s from at least two weeks back. Mauricio’s just making better contact. He might still come up and walk once a month, which isn’t great, but this looks way more like the Alfonso Soriano comp I put on him last year.

Max: Happy Birthday! Any thoughts on the Astros first base options?
Keith Law: They’re not going to bench Abreu, so I’m not sure what options they have. I hated that contract, and it’s biting them sooner than I expected.

Jobu: Happy Birthday! Friend is turning 50 later this month & was looking to gift him a really nice bottle of rum. He loves Ron Zacapa was wondering if you’ve had the Negra or XO? Or another comparable brand?
Keith Law: Ron Diplomatico Ambassador is probably the best rum I’ve ever had. Zacapa XO is excellent.  If you want something a little more affordable in that quality range, try Ron Zaya Gran Reserva.

Jason: From before this industry was your work, what is one of your greatest baseball memories?
Keith Law: I was at Jim Abbott’s no-hitter. Nothing will top that.

Zac: Is Colt Keith start to the season legit? Can he become a top 20 prospect before the end of the year?
Keith Law: He’s a legit hitter, not a top 20 prospect – that’s an extremely high bar.

Isaac: Has your view of Jonathan Clase changed? We could you see him ranking by mid season? Thanks Keith, love the chats!!! Happy birthday ? ?
Keith Law: Clase was my sleeper pick for the Mariners going into 2022, and he broke out halfway (to quote my own capsule from February), so my view on him has held steady. He’s legit. Probably a top 100 guy at this point.

Drew: Ceiling on Evan Carter?  Happy Birthday
Keith Law: Above-average regular in CF.

Josh: Hey Keith, what is wrong with Jordan Lawlar… should we be concerned? Also, is Brandon Pfaadt overrated or just needs to fine tune some things? his stuff looks pedestrian…
Keith Law: Lawlar’s 20 in AA. If he were destroying high A right now, which would be appropriate for his age, I don’t think there’d be any concerns. As for Pfaadt, I think he’s overusing the four-seamer right now. Stuff is far from “pedestrian,” though.

Guest: Happy Birthday!
Keith Law: thank you!

Deke: What’s your opinion on those “mental therapy by text” outlets? I think I could use a therapist in some form, but with the kids home for the summer and my spouse working banker’s house, finding time is real rough. Just don’t want to throw money after a joke of a service.
Keith Law: I had no trouble finding a real, PhD/PsyD-level therapist around here who’d do virtual meetings. That’s your best option.

Ken: Should we worry about grayson Rodriguez? I want to think a minor tinker is all that’s needed, he seemed like a sure bet to be a 1/2 in a mlb rotation
Keith Law: Yeah, he was never a sure bet for that. He’s had issues with the quality of his breaking stuff forever. I still think he’s going to be a mainstay in a rotation for a long time, but he’s a good example of how scouting the stat line can lead you to the wrong conclusions – what works in the minors doesn’t necessarily work in the majors. His slider especially backed up at the end of last year and it wasn’t more than a fringy pitch to begin with. The FB-CH is good enough for him to be a mid-rotation guy but he’ll need more to be a 2.

Darin: Could Spencer Horwitz help the Blue Jays in a reserve role? They need hitting and he seems to be the best of what they’ve got on the farm at the moment.
Keith Law: No. There’s really no place for a guy like him in the majors right now.
Keith Law: Although when you’re still wasting a roster spot on Cavan Biggio…

Ken: Would you consider Jackson Holliday the top prospect by the end of the season? Could he be right now??
Keith Law: I think he’s top 5 in baseball right now.

Matt W: Is there any possible justification to the Reds keeping Elly and CES in the minors while they have a 3rd catcher, Newman, Myers, and Benson wasting active roster spaces?
Keith Law: See above.
Keith Law: You don’t want to bring those guys up to struggle, or harm their development in any way.

Guest: Who has more upside Bryce or Mason Miller?
Keith Law: Bryce. Mason has no history of staying healthy and doesn’t have Bryce’s full arsenal.

Bob Pollard: What position do you think Elly de la Cruz ends up playing when he’s called up this year and beyond?
Keith Law: I have a hard time seeing him staying at SS long term but it’s not out of the question, and I think he could probably play literally any other position except catcher. He might be a 70 defender in center if they try that, and his arm would make him a natural at third. But I’d leave him at short for now until he proves he can’t stay there.

aholla: If Stephen Strasburg was coming out of San Diego State this year, would he be a unanimous lock to go No. 1 overall or would there be some arguing for a hitter given rising concerns about pitcher durability?
Keith Law: Paul Skenes is, in effect, Stephen Strasburg in this draft. And Skenes isn’t a lock to go 1.

Marc: Keith, are you a believer in Mitch Keller? Happy birthday
Keith Law: The cutter seems to be enough to keep lefties in check – he still gives up too much power to them, but also is getting them out enough to mitigate that. That was the knock on him since probably AA, that he lacked a third pitch for LHB. So yes.

Zack twink: Was Emmanuel rodriguez over hyped… or it there not a reason to worry yet. Thank! Happy birthday
Keith Law: He’s very young, with less than a half-season in low A last year, and it’s only two months.
Keith Law: I’m more concerned about Gavin Cross, who’s 22 in high A, hitting much better the last 3-4 weeks but striking out a third of the time at a level he should be crushing.

G: Considering Crews and Langford are considered some of the favorites for 1st overall, it got me wondering: The history of college OFs drafted 1st overall is small and not great overall. Is there a reason for this? Is college OF generally considered too limited in upside for 1st overall?
Keith Law: I think a lot of it is selection bias – the type of player who’d be 1-1 out of college as an outfielder probably gets drafted high out of HS enough of the time that he never gets to this point.

Robbie: What’s your opinion of the Braves decision to call up AJSS? Clearly rushing his development with such a short stint in the minors.
Keith Law: Is it, though? Or is this a case of he’s good enough to help us now, so why waste his bullets? I have said he’s basically a two-pitch guy and it will be very interesting to see if he can get lefties out just like that, which Strider has as a two-pitch guy, or if he needs to develop (almost from scratch) a third pitch.

Tom: think kyle manzardo gets the call in the next month or so?
Keith Law: No, unless there’s an injury.

James: What should the Yankees do with Oswald Peraza? Seems like he’s ready for the big leagues but they don’t have room for him. Easy answer would be to cut Donaldson and let him split time with DJ but they don’t seem to want to do that.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s the answer. Not sure why they still have Donaldson at this point.

ChicagoDude: Happy 50th birthday! May your every endeavor turn out better than baseball in this town this year.
Keith Law: Thank you! That’s a low bar to clear.

G: Recent buzz has Max Clark as an option for the Pirates at 1st overall. I know the top-5 in this class is very strong, but would passing on Crews/Skenes/Langford be a Bryan Bullington level error on the Pirates part?
Keith Law: I think that’s been the buzz all spring – if they wanted to go HS, he’d be the choice. And in some drafts he’d be 1-1. It doesn’t hurt that he plays about 20 minutes from Pittsburgh’s AAA affiliate, so any exec in town to see their prospects can just pop over and see him too. I think the risk they run if they take Clark is that a year from now Crews and Skenes are in the big leagues and Clark is in A-ball, even maybe doing well there, but they’ve missed a chance to get someone who gets there almost right away.

Isaac: The guardians HAVE to move some of their SP depth for probably 2 hitters.. at least.. right? Is there any chance they can package a deal for Jordan walker? Would the cards move him? It seems like 2 teams dealing good pieces from positions of strength. What would that take?
Keith Law: Don’t see the Cards trading Walker but I wonder if they’d move another young OF like Carlson, who I still believe in but who might be superfluous there.

Joe: Is Vogelbach proof that high OBP in itself does not make a good player, or is he just an outlier? He currently has .364 OBP (great!), but 0 WAR because he can’t do anything else.
Keith Law: Also a platoon guy. 121 PA vs RHP, 8 PA vs LHP this year. His OBP would be a lot worse if he had to play every day.

Jim: There’s been some some suggestions by White Sox fans to move Moncada or Tim Anderson to 2B to fill the hole that’s seem to have been there since Tadahito Iguchi. How easy or difficult is it for a guy to move from 3B or SS to 2B strictly from a defensive perspective?
Keith Law: It’s not difficult, at least based on past cases of guys making the shift to second, but I’m not sure why you’d move an average-ish SS like Anderson off the position unless you have a better defender right there to take his spot.

Tim: What is your current read of Drew Gilbert? I’m guessing we are looking at a 2024 arrival, though AA, I guess, kind of means it could be any time. Do you see him as a regular? An occasional all star? A 4th outfielder?
Keith Law: I think occasional all-star is a fair ceiling, more likely a quality regular who’s a little better than average. The power he showed in hitter-friendly Asheville hasn’t shown up in AA yet, and I think this level is going to be more telling.

Tom: Do you think Jameson Taillon turns it around?
Keith Law: If healthy, yes.

Jibraun: Happy Birthday!
Keith Law: thank you!

Ryan: Should Brave fans be concerned about Michael Harris?
Keith Law: I think some regression was inevitable. He’s never had a particularly good approach, notably in pitch recognition, and at some point that was likely to bring down his production. He’s also been pretty unlucky this year.

JD: Does Gavin Williams have more to work on before the Guardians call him up?
Keith Law: Yes, getting LHB out.

addoeh: Congrats on completing another lap around the sun!  Have you ever, or would you ever, want to throw out the first pitch at game?
Keith Law: I have not. I’d consider it, if I knew ahead of time and could make sure I could practice enough to have a chance to throw a strike. I’m not going to get cute out there and try to throw hard or be funny.

JD: With Henry Davis looking fully recovered from last year’s injury, how does he project compared to this year’s breakout catchers?
Keith Law: I’m all in. This was my hope, that the hand injuries held him back last year and he’d be the hitter I saw in college once again.

Luke: Do you see anything different in Alex Faedo? Has some nice peripheral stats (26:2 K:BB) in his 26 innings this year.
Keith Law: He is throwing more strikes, so the drop in his walk rate might be real, but I don’t think he can limit hard contact enough to be more than a back-end starter.

JD: Does Ben Joyce have enough control to thrive in the majors? The stuff is obviously top-shelf, but you have to throw it over the plate occasionally…
Keith Law: He’ll stay in the majors and probably have stretches where he looks unhittable and stretches where he can’t get it over the plate or gets hit hard. It’s primarily that one pitch.

Daryl Andrews: Favourite board game in 2023 (new or new to you)
Keith Law: So far it’s probably Earth, but I have a terrible backlog of new games to play!

Drew: Accidentally hit send before finishing my thought…

Is it rational to be pissed at the Nationals org for treating Trevor Williams’ statement like a fart in an elevator? I get that the Sisters are provocative, but if you just do a little bit of research into them, you’ll discover that they’ve done a lot of good work, sometimes even in concert with religious organizations. He’s entitled to his opinion and free to speak his mind, but it’s a colossal bummer.

Anyway, happy birthday!
Keith Law: I agree with you. And again, as an ex-Catholic myself, I have little time for people who rail against the Sisters but have said nothing at all about the Catholic Church’s systemic cover-ups and enabling of abuse of thousands of children, maybe tens of thousands, across the world, something the Church continues to minimize and obfuscate.

Jamestown met: Has your evaluation od Ronny Mauricio changed since your last overview on him? He seems to be making positive adjustments that I never fully expected. Thanks for the chat on your b-day!!!!!
Keith Law: More that he’s hitting all the right notes, and maybe getting a little lucky.

Dave: Happy big birthday! With Joulien sent down today because of Polanco’s place on the Twins’ depth chart, do you think his bat and on-base skills will ultimately translate from MiLB to MLB?
Keith Law: I think he has a long career but is only a sometime regular.

Tim: Hey Keith! Happy birthday. Have you heard anything about what Matt McLain has done better/differently this year compared to last? He seems to have righted the ship but wanted to see if you still have reservations. Thanks!
Keith Law: He looks a lot stronger than he did at the end of last year. In the AFL he looked like a high school kid all over again, both in body and results.

Nick H.: Ethan Wilson is showing power in AA and it doesn’t look like it’s all because of Reading’s park. Is there any substantive change with him?
Keith Law: Yes. The Phils have worked to try to get his swing back to where it was when he was a sophomore in college and I think it’s working.

Derek: I turn 42 today. June 1 represent
Keith Law: We share a birthday with Oscar the Grouch. Not sure how old he is. I asked him, but he told me to scram.

Nick H.: Jhailyn Ortiz has significantly cut his K% in AAA after he was removed from the 40-man roster. Is this just random or did something change?
Keith Law: With the ABS in AAA I’d beware of players who seem to improve their plate discipline overnight. That said, if Ortiz really has made a change there – I don’t know either way – he has always had the swing for hard contact and power.

Brent: Happy birthday Klaw! What’s your birthday meal going to be?
Keith Law: We’re going out to a very fine restaurant in Philly tonight. I’m excited. I’m eating too little for lunch just to prepare.

Jackass Penguin: happy bday to one of my favorites, Keith Law, keep doing what you are doing, you are necessary!
Keith Law: thank you!

Santaspirt: How often do you make it to Norfolk for Tides games? Or Hampton roads in general? Any guys in the coastal plain league worth scouting?
Keith Law: Actually never been to Norfolk for a game. I don’t do much AAA work because there are fewer prospects there relative to AA and below. CPL often has prospects but I don’t know offhand who’s there.

BD: Happy Birthday.   

What are you hearing about Elijah Green?  Looks like the K’s have started to come down, but I was hoping for more power.
Keith Law: Really struggling with pro breaking stuff. I saw him briefly a few weeks back – hell of an athlete, but was overmatched at the plate. I think he’s a guy who suffers from the elimination of short-season.

scratchandspit: What are the Jays to do with Manoah?
Keith Law: Guys like him & Taillon, my first thought is always that something’s physically wrong. It doesn’t have to be huge like a blown UCL. It could be a slight oblique strain or something that’s just enough to throw off their mechanics, but being ballplayers they don’t want to sit or even say they’re not 100%. You play through minor pain. That’s just the baseball ethos. I don’t know in either case if that’s true but in my experience that’s a common explanation.

Gregory: What are the chances the Big 5 draft prospects are not the first 5 taken?
Keith Law: I think there’s a 95% chance that the top 4 picks come from the Big 5. The Twins are the wild card for me.

Romorr: As a fan, I never saw a consistently good change up with Grayson, and his location was inconsistent. Anything you saw in these 10 starts, and anything I am missing?
Keith Law: He had a very good CH in the minors through last year. That pitch he has, and he developed it after signing, so credit him & the Orioles.

JP: No question here. Just a thank you for your continuous support of the LGBT community. When people and organizations with large audiences continue to show support, it reminds us all that it’s ok to be who you were born as. And that continued message of acceptance can hopefully sand down the hate that still exists outside and inside sports, giving closeted athletes hope that they can be themselves.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I stand with all of my LGBTQ+ readers and will always have your backs.

Romorr: I think you will agree, Ortiz should be playing for Mateo. But with Gunnar, Frazier, and Urias, what do you do with Westburg? Trade bait come July, and just keep him down? Seems silly if that is the thought process.
Keith Law: I do agree – isn’t Mateo’s OBP like .250 since that weird first week? – and I think Westburg would be a very valuable trade piece.

James: Any thoughts on Jasson’s slow start? His plate discipline seems to be there. Is he just hitting into bad luck?
Keith Law: Slow start last year too, no? He’s a baby, and it’s early. I am not worried about guys who are young for their levels and struggling in two months.

Guest: Happy Birthday, Keith! From what we have seen so far from MacKenzie Gore, do you think he is moving closer to being the pitcher that we thought he may be a few years ago?
Keith Law: I do. It’s funny, I found a tweet from someone trying to dunk on me for my top 5 prospects from a few years ago not panning out. The list included Gore and Kelenic. Sometimes, you just have to be patient.

Ooglas: Is Alvarez early success for the Mets sustainable the whole year? Thanks.
Keith Law: I’m in.

Chris: Any thoughts on the Cards handling of Jordan Walker? Seems like they had no real strategy at all for their outfield glut of mediocrity, and then allowed spring training to dictate bringing him up.
Keith Law: The last part is the big one. It feels like they reacted to spring training, as the Yanks did with Volpe. I just don’t believe that’s ever a good process.

James: How should we look at Jackson Chourio’s stat line give that the AA league is using the new pre-tacked ball? Realistic to say he may have even more success in AAA due to that?
Keith Law: It’s realistic to hope for that, yes. Excuse my language, but MLB is really fucking up some stat lines, and maybe some development, by experimenting with this stuff in affiliated leagues.

Pat: Thoughts on the Lasso finale?
Keith Law: I want to write something longer about the whole season, but my short take is that the finale was very good, and the episode before was great, but the rest of S3 was a huge disappointment.

Erik: Josh Jung is hitting well but is striking out a lot. I haven’t done a deep dive on the numbers, but is he more likely to sustain this or crash? Also, Happy Birthday!
Keith Law: I believe he’ll cut down on the K% over time.

Matt: If conservatives boycott everything, how are they gonna eat? Starving to death to own the libs.
Keith Law: I don’t see any evidence these boycotts do anything except stir up online anger and maybe put money in grifters’ pockets.

Optimistic Nats Fan: One analyst I read said he did not see more than one above-average MLB player out of MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz,  CJ Abrams, James Wood, Brady House, Elijah Green, Jarlin Susana, or Rober Hassell.

Agree or disagree?
Keith Law: I disagree. A lot.

PJ: This may be a dumb question, but in yesterday’s Cubs game, they had to send up Edwin Rios in a critical spot in the game.  Rios has hit under .100, struggled in minors, is 29yrs old, and was never a prospect.  Why are guys like that on big league rosters?
Keith Law: Rios was a prospect, just never got a chance. The Cubs have a lot of non-factors on their roster, though.

Sean: Happy Birthday, KLAW.  Love all your work!  Question on Bryce Miller… With his fastball spin rate, are hitters going to start figuring him out?  Or is it so unusual that he is going to be a step ahead?
Keith Law: Spin rate in a vacuum isn’t that telling.

wickethewok: Is it acceptable to be excited about the Pirates having the first pick? I’m still cautious due to their player development track record
Keith Law: Yeah, I think they’re doing a better job with some of the guys in the system already. Keller’s a win. Chandler and Solometo are coming along.

Romorr: Any trips to Aberdeen recently, or soon? Interested in what you think of Fabian, Wagner, and Willems.
Keith Law: Saw them once earlier in the spring, need to see more and will definitely get down there this month.

Guest: What are a couple of your favorite boardgames a 6-year-old can handle? We’ve played My First Carcassonne, and she liked it, but it pretty quickly felt maybe a little too simple. If you have any recommendations for collaborative games, those would be especially appreciated. So far we’ve played Outfoxed, which she enjoys.
Keith Law: Outfoxed is great. So is Dragomino. Also Quacks & Co.

Optimistic Nats Fan: Scouting the statline: Carter Keiboom and Brady House have similar numbers in A-ball. How are they different?
Keith Law: House destroys baseballs.

Ryan: Corbin Carroll is turning into an absolute beast already. Not a question, just marveling at how good he is already.
Keith Law: My guy. I said it in 2019 – if he were 6’2″ rather than 5’10”, he would have been in discussion at 1-1.

Michael: You are the reason I finally subscribed to the Athletic. For those who aren’t aware, you can get it for $20 a year now. It’s a pretty good deal
Keith Law: Thank you!

Timmy: No response needed. Just hear to say happy birthday. I’ve enjoyed following meadow party, and appreciate your honest, open newsletters. Followed you for awhile now and I’m happy for you and your family that y’all seem to be doing so well. Happy 50th!
Keith Law: And thank you.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – I’m sorry I couldn’t get to even half of your questions. Thanks for reading and for all of the birthday wishes. I’ll resume hating your favorite teams momentarily – and I’ll have a new draft prospect ranking up next week. Stay safe, everyone.

You can read both of my Cactus League dispatches plus my latest draft blog post if you subscribe to The Athletic.

Keith Law: A moment, a love, a dream aloud, a Klawchat.

Guest: Frisco RoughRiders have 8 infielders on the roster for 4 spots (and DH).  I assume that Acuna & Frainyer Chavez will have 2 spots. Does Thomas Saggese get the start and consistent playing time? At what position? How do you see their infield shaking out?
Keith Law: There is no way in hell Saggese gets less than full playing time. He’s a prospect and they see him as a prospect. I wouldn’t sweat positions too much as most teams move their infielders around a ton, both to give those players some added versatility and to try to improve their potential trade value – e.g., you may not think your guy Joey Bagodonuts can play shortstop, but what if the New York Mammoths do?

JT: I asked this of you on your Salas post on FB, but I’m following up now because it’s still interesting. I’d asked whether catchers have different attrition rates, and you correctly pointed out that their development takes longer. I’m curious to follow up: for a Salas or similarly fundamentally sound defensive catchers, do the ability and willingness to receive pitches with good hands increase the floor substantially? I know he’s only 16, but is it already possible to know that he’s at least Luke Maille if he learns nothing more about the sport? It’s curiosity about catching as a distinct player pool driving this.
Keith Law: I think the floor is quite high for Salas if he stays healthy – it is very hard to imagine him failing to become at least a quality backup catcher. This is Reese McGuire’s skill set from his draft year, but with more future power. McGuire wasn’t a good first-round pick but he has played 234 big-league games already through age 28. That’s a floor, mind you, not a projection for Salas.
Keith Law: I think catchers develop more slowly as a class because of the added wear and tear plus the difficulty of learning two jobs. No other fielder has to do as much work during or between games as the catcher does. That doesn’t mean that no catcher will develop as quickly as the best players at other positions. Salas could be in the big leagues before he’s 20, but that wouldn’t change or invalidate the axiom that catchers overall come more slowly.

addoeh: All Marmol should have done is say “We’ll take care of it internally.” with regards to O’Neill. And doubling down was even worse.
Keith Law: I completely agree. You don’t handle that stuff in public – ever. That’s true in just about any business. Handle internal discipline privately.

Isaac: Do you think Ronny Mauricio has an impact on the Mets this season? If so, at what position?
Keith Law: I do not.

JT: For a guy like Berrios who’s cratering now into another season, how do you go about judging what’s wrong and whether continued hope is possible?
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s any easy fix there, or someone would likely have spotted it. The one thing that’s jumped out at me is that his four-seamer was always flat but now it’s so straight you could hang laundry from it. He’s also putting the thing belt-high often, which I would advise that he stop doing. I know this is all very helpful.

Freddie: Should the Reds transition Elly de La cruz to the OF once he’s healthy? Seems like a good fit compared to all the other IF prospects that have
Keith Law: If you really think he can stay at SS, you leave him there. I might try him at third base before sending him to CF, because I think if and when he goes to center he’s never coming back to the infield again.

Colonel Homestar Runner: Draft dodger, eh?  We’ll see if those trees you’re always hugging save you when Gordon Lightfoot’s creeping ’round your back stair!
Keith Law: So funny story – I never entirely got that joke until almost 20 years after I first saw that Homestar sketch when I heard “Sundown” (and learned to play it – it’s four chords) and realized that was a quote from the lyrics. Fun fact – “Sundown” was Lightfoot’s only #1 single here in the U.S., even though he’s far better known for “The Neverending Song about the Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald.”

Billyball: I never seem to read much good on gunner hoglund. The brief stats he’s put up doesn’t scream anything bad. Has his stuff not fully returned? I thought he had a #2/high 3 type of future. Is it performance or merely staying healthy?
Keith Law: Never a #2 – a strong command guy pre-TJ whose stuff hasn’t come all the way back and now projects more like a 4 or a 5.

Guest: What do ypu think about Brody Brecth from U of Iowa? He recently left football to focus on baseball.
Keith Law: 24 walks in 33 IP this year. He throws really hard, but that is not the performance of a top 10 pick.

Freddie: As purely prospects, who would you of had rated higher, Soto or chourio?
Keith Law: I never rated Soto as high as I had Chourio – Soto played about a month or so in low A, got hurt, made my top 100, and then was ineligible a year later because he was already in the majors.
Keith Law: Claiming I would have had Soto higher would be just revising my own history.

KEN: Here in Cleveland, we love the way the guardians have won the past few years, but can they really contend without more pop in the lineup? Maybe even a few bats? Is Valera a realistic option when healthy?  Thanks Keith
Keith Law: I wouldn’t bank on Valera helping the lineup this year – it’s possible, just unlikely, given his contact questions in AAA. And yes, they do need to find some more pop. Maybe Josh Naylor is finally having the breakout year I predicted for him (in 2021).

Athletics fan: Your thoughts on Kyle Muller? Esteury Ruiz?
Keith Law: They’re both in my top 20 A’s prospects ranking.

Orioles GM: You are the Orioles GM.  What trade(s) would you consider?  Front line starter?
Keith Law: In theory, sure, although I’m not sure which front line starter is available right now. I would try to package some of the upper-level bats who are probably superfluous – Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz, possibly even Mountcastle – given who else is coming to try to get the best starter I can get who’s more than a rental. If they could make such a trade now, which is historically rare for this time of year, it could easily add 4-5 wins to their total for the year.

Jason: Do you think Chourio could be called up mid year with a big showing at AA/AAA?
Keith Law: A big showing at AA gets him to AAA by midyear. He’s only 19. I’d be surprised if he debuts this year, especially with all of their other CF.

Twinkie: Jose Salas was a player I thought could be a star a few years back. Now that his brother is getting all the attention, are people sleeping on jose, or did the projections just never materialize?
Keith Law: I don’t think either is accurate – he’s 5th in the Twins’ system right now, not a superstar but a very solid prospect with upside.

Guest: Is PCA’s floor what Almora became?
Keith Law: I would call that a disappointment. Almora’s approach never improved past about AA or so.

Guest: Keith, thanks for all the great work. I followed you to the athletic when you moved.
Keith Law: thank you! I’ve never regretted the switch for a minute.

benjamin: thoughts on the Angels mgmt and their attempts at censorship. if i was Ohtani id run as far away from them as possible
Keith Law: They have a right to say certain people can’t appear on their flagship station, and we can mock them mercilessly for being the only snowflakes in Anaheim. All they did was buy themselves worse publicity than they would have gotten had they just used Sam Blum less without actually banning him from the show.

Guest: Does Jasson make to the Bronx this year?
Keith Law: It would be just for show if he did. I doubt he’s up early enough to make an impact.

Luke: What is your take on Lodeil Chapelli in the White Sox system? Excites me that he is starting in AAA.
Keith Law: He’s not – he’s starting in high-A, on Winston-Salem. He ranked 20th in a weak farm system this winter.

Zac: Can I start believing in Torkelsons exit velo from spring training and the start of the season or SSS?
Keith Law: Still SSS, but I’m optimistic. The three Tigers bats I liked coming into the year are off to promising starts, at least. Shame they won’t prevent many runs…

Michael: With alvarez about to come up, do you think he holds onto the job for good?
Keith Law: I do not.

Michael: Is there a legitimate development purpose for the mets keeping vientos down in AAA, or is it more about roster management? Seems like he more or less is who he is at this point
Keith Law: Not sure where he fits on the roster.

Mike Rizzo, Washington, DC: Is there any conceivable way I pass on Paul Skenes?
Keith Law: Yes. There are two premium college bats in this draft, Crews and Langford.
Keith Law: I don’t understand any ranking of those three guys that claims any one is clearly above or below the other two. Stick ’em in the dice cup and roll ’em.

Tim: Do you think Justin Steele can have a Mark Buehrle type career or is that too optimistic?
Keith Law: I’d take the under on that. Buehrle was a pretty rare bird.

NIck: Do you see Andres Chapparo being anything more than a AAAA player? He seems to be developing more than expected with his bat.
Keith Law: I do not.

Colin: Who’s your favorite offensive prospect that will stick at shortstop but is currently not on the top 100?
Keith Law: Jett Williams.

Matthew: A couple Guardians questions: 1- Any word on which random pitching prospect they magically added 5 mph to since being drafted last year? 2- Aggressive assignment for Leftwich, starting in AA. What should we be looking for early in the year from him?
Keith Law: Leftwich finished last year with 10 starts in high A – I don’t think AA is aggressive for an SEC product who’s 24 this year.

Salty: Do you have any favorite local eats when checking out the Blue Claws, or do you head back home with maybe a stop along the way?
Keith Law: I haven’t been since the pandemic, because they play in Wilmington 2-3 times a year. The place I used to like most in Lakewood closed in 2019.

Brian in NoVA: How much longer should Washington wait before ending the Corbin experiment and cutting him outright? I know they still owe him 60 million or so but he’s unplayable at this point.
Keith Law: Whenever they need the roster spot.

Rob: Is there a Marlins prospect you like that maybe isn’t well known yet? I’ll hang up and listen.
Keith Law: I think if Joe Mack were a Mets prospect he’d be far more well known. As I said, the story goes.

Kerry Wood: The Cubs talk a lot about their “pitching lab” and a couple of their free agent signings said that was a big deal in choosing them. Is that a real thing or just fancy talk for we watch film with you?
Keith Law: Teams do have pitching labs of varying degrees of sophistication. I would like to see the Cubs have some real success stories out of that lab before getting too high on it.

Marc: Who has the higher ceiling, Mike Burrows or Quinn Priester?
Keith Law: Priester.

Dallas: Of the 3, are any of these the Pirates 2B of the future? (Nick G, Rodolfo Castro, Ji-Hwan Bae?)
Keith Law: I hear Bae far more in CF. Could see them pushing Gonzales there to justify the pick.

Bye Bye Balboni: Giancarlo Stanton to Mets for a couple non prospects. Yanks get the contract off the books and Mets offense instantly improved. Who says no?
Keith Law: Why on earth would the Mets do this?

John: Any hope for Ian Anderson? Crazy downfall from what looked to be a solid MOR guy for years to come.
Keith Law: I think he’s like Berrios – I don’t think he’s hopeless, but clearly he needs a significant change to his approach. Anderson always got away with a mediocre breaking ball because its spin-based direction was the opposite of the FB/CH, but that doesn’t work when guys are hitting the fastball this hard.

Chris: If you were in charge of a draft like the mariners have where they have the 6th most money, would you try to buy a top 10 guy down or would you prefer 3 bites at the apple?
Keith Law: Someone they rank as a top 10-15 guy gets to them naturally. Just set up to take that guy if/when it happens.
Keith Law: You don’t want to pass on someone you think is the best player available just to save money for later picks.

Candler: Of all the young Braves starters rotating through the 5 spot, who do you see sticking long term? Shuster, Elder, Dodd, maybe even Soroka?
Keith Law: Shuster’s a starter if healthy. Soroka is too, but he’s never healthy. Elder’s a 6th starter type for me.

Andrew: Has Dylan Crews pretty much locked up 1-1 (absent below slot  etc)?
Keith Law: Absolutely not.

Rahj Da Dodge: What are your impressions on Gleyber Torres’ strong start? Is he finally reaching his peak?
Keith Law: It’s been one week.

SG: I know it’s quite early, but do you think Paul Skenes has a shot to overtake Crews or Langford as the number 1 prospect in the draft?
Keith Law: See above. Any of those three could go 1-1. If I had to bet, because it’s Pittsburgh, I’d bet on a position player, though.

Dave: The new rules seem to have worked exactly as the owners wanted them.  I like all aspects of them but for the limited amount of throw overs to 1st since it drastically changes the game and strategy.  Any chance they change that or do you think we are stuck with it going forward?
Keith Law: I hate the endless throws to first that have polluted the college game like dioxin in the Love Canal.

Frank: Does Henry Davis make it to the Majors this season or is next year more likely?  Do you still believe he stays behind the plate?
Keith Law: This year if healthy, I believe he’s a catcher but not everyone agrees.

Zirinsky: Hi Keith. Thoughts on the impact of the rule changes so far?
Keith Law: It’s been one week.

Mike: as of right now, is it: crews 1, skenes 2, langford 3?
Keith Law: See above.
Keith Law: Langford might be … uh, half the man he used to be, but I don’t think he’s any less of a prospect.

Guest: Any new or classic games, etc. to recommend for a soon to be 8 year old (he didn’t type this btw)? Thanks!
Keith Law: I’m happy to recommend a bunch but it does help to know what he has played and what he likes, so I’m not just saying games you know (e.g., Ticket to Ride is always my first suggestion for that age and new gamers).

Mike: think masyn winn gets the call by June?
Keith Law: I do not.

Mike: can Josh Lowe be an every day regular? How do you evaluate him now?
Keith Law: Still like him a ton, might end up a platoon guy rather than a regular but does have the fielding/athleticism/power to be a regular if he hits LHP enough.

Shawn: Can you tell me anything about Luis Perales in the Boston system?  Just starting to hear about him for the first time.
Keith Law: Very good arm, still a ways off beyond arm strength, not a good delivery for a long-term starter. I believe he’s starting on a loaded low-A Salem roster (Bleis, Romero, Anthony, Coffey).

Nick: Is Clayton Beeter a GUY or do you see him as more of a reliever?
Keith Law: Probably a reliever between health issues and lack of FB quality.

Shawn: How can it be that Cleveland has so much success developing pitchers? I watch my team’s prospects come up and get shelled, but theirs just plug in and get good results, year after year. How can one team be doing something that different on the player development front?
Keith Law: I think there are a lot of ways teams can differentiate themselves on the player development front. Cleveland has identified certain characteristics in pitchers that make them candidates for improved velocity in their system, and they target those guys in the draft & trades.

Alex: It’s early, it’s small sample size, but there’s a real buzz around Josh Lowe in Tampa.  (1) do you buy that he could still be an impact bat and (2) if so is there anything more to glean from his early struggles than “MLB is really hard and sometimes it takes time?”
Keith Law: Players don’t all develop on our timetables. They develop on their own. Giving up on talented players before they’re even 25 is just foolhardy.

Mike: How excited are you to see a stacked wilmington blue rocks lineup this year?
Keith Law: Always nice when the home team is stronger. I should be there for the opener, weather permitting.

Evan: Do you think the padres org will be ranked top 18 or so by end of year? Salas and lesko enough to boost them?
Keith Law: Top 18 is … awfully specific?

Michael: When you talk about a players floor or ceiling, do you consider that in absolute terms (barring a major change in circumstances) or more like X standard deviations from the average possible outcome?
Keith Law: A floor, to me, is “barring injury or 34 felony counts, this is the worst case scenario.”
Keith Law: Ceiling is really “everything goes right.”

ChicagoSteve: Is Mitch Keller ever going to happen? This has really been an amazing five-year odyssey for a once highly regarded SP prospect who has never been derailed by a major injury, but instead by constant tinkering.
Keith Law: Two things. One, I think he’s never going to be more than a fourth starter if he can’t get LHB out consistently, and right now he doesn’t have that weapon. Two, I wonder if we’d all have ranked him lower after his big A-ball year if we’d had more advanced data that showed that the fastball was pretty ordinary for its velo.

Kerry Wood: Is the Padres owner blowing the small market fallacy out of the water or do places like KC, Cleveland, Cinci, etc not actually notice?
Keith Law: Both.
Keith Law: Can’t notice what you refuse to see!

Billy: Can Ryan Noda be an everyday player in Oakland? I wasn’t familiar with him before the As picked him up.
Keith Law: Unlikely. He might play regularly for them, but I interpret “everyday player” as someone who produces enough to play every day for most teams.

Shawn: Does Triston Casas end up looking like Nick Johnson?
Keith Law: More power.

Seth: A question for you about HS baseball in general.  When trying to develop a good player at that level, considering size and growth come into play so much for a 14-17 year old, should hitters just be trying to make solid hard contact while developing sound mechanics know the results will come?  I hear so many parents concerned with results vs. mechanics and fundamentals that I am starting to wonder if I am on the wrong side of the discussion.  Thanks.
Keith Law: Just try to hit the ball hard and don’t get hurt.
Keith Law: We have seen guys get paid more for HR power as teenagers but I think their overall track record isn’t great. (Joey Gallo is a little bit of both – he did show enormous HR power at 17-18, but was also a great athlete who sat 95 mph as a pitcher.)

Sean: Has Jaden Hill recovered his stuff from pre injury?
Keith Law: I have heard no. He wasn’t great in March. Still has some time.

Jon: You worried about the lack of preciptation in this area? We had no snow up here in Lancaster County this winter and now we have a string of eighties days with no rain coming up. I feel this does not bode well.
Keith Law: Half inch of rain coming tonight, and yes, we need it.

Derek: If Skenes maintains the same performance for the rest of the year, would you consider him at 1-1? Or is it just impossible for any breakable pitcher to be preferable to Crews/Langford given how good those guys are?
Keith Law: Personally, I would not take a pitcher at 1-1 with an elite college position player available, and this year there are two of those guys. Skenes looks Gerrit Cole-level good right now, but all pitchers are breakable – even if you think he IS Gerrit Cole, you’ve got two hitters who project to that kind of output as well.

Shawn: Why is the “AAAA player” a thing?  Are there just as many guys who are too good for AA and not good enough for AAA, and we just don’t hear about them?
Keith Law: AAAA player = too good for AAA, not good enough to be more than a bench or up-and-down guy for the majors.

Kevin: Anyone interesting I should try to see in the Florida State League (or whatever it’s called) this year? Thanks for doing the chat!
Keith Law: I don’t have the rosters in front of me (or memorized), sorry.

Jon: What happened to Jackson Ferris? The Cubs drafted him and I thought signed him but he has yet to play.
Keith Law: He just signed last July, out of HS, and none of those kids has played this year yet. The non-AAA teams start tonight.
Keith Law: He’s fine, he pitched in Mesa last month.

Chad: I realize that it has no impact whatsoever on your job, but do you find the Savannah Bananas fun and a way to get the youth excited about baseball? I’m seeing them in June, with my kids, and they’re so pumped for it.
Keith Law: Eh. It’s not exactly baseball, is it? I don’t object to them like some old curmudgeon, but I don’t see the appeal myself.

Freddie: Watched Miguel Bleis’1st preseason game. He really jumped off the screen compared to what I had imagined. Is he star talent type, he’s been getting hype, but I’m surprised he’s not getting more considering his market
Keith Law: It’s superstar upside with swing and miss concerns, which is probably why he’s not getting more hype.

Candler: Michael Harris’ approach at the plate doesn’t seem to be improving much to my untrained eye. Anything to be concerned about, or just young player growing pains?
Keith Law: I’ve had that concern on him since A-ball. Just something he’ll have to work on to maintain or improve on last year.

Pat: How many teams provide nutritionists for their minor leaguers? &/or provide healthy food in the clubhouse? Asking because Jace Jung mentioned yesterday that Detroit did neither of those last year..which seems like criminal negligence to me
Keith Law: I actually thought every team did at least some of that by now.

Chris: Somerset is gonna be a fun team this year – Martian, Pereira, Wells, Sweeney, looking fw to first road trip up here to Portland
Keith Law: Dominguez & Pereira are big draws for me. The others less so.

ML: Keith, what do you think about Vaun Brown? Seems like a “scouting the stat line” guy, but more and more evaluators seems to like him…
Keith Law: I’ve talked to plenty of evaluators, all of whom think he’s a big leaguer but none of whom thought he was more than a solid regular. Older guy whose best tool is his speed but who’s already had issues with both knees.

Rob: Cam Collier is starting with my home team of Daytona in the FSL this year.
Keith Law: And he’ll be 18 all year, I believe.

Mj: Did you watch The Last of Us? If so, thoughts?
Keith Law: Zero interest, sorry.

ML: Do you think a player’s name has an actual impact on how he is viewed by scouts/front offices?  Does a guy names Wilmer Flores suffer  because of the blandness and common nature of his name, in comparison to a guy like Cedanne Rafaela?
Keith Law: I do not. I do think it matters if his name is, say, Gwynn, or Marichal, or Holliday.

Trey: What does Kahlil Watson have to do to make it back to your top100 list in 2024?
Keith Law: Make a LOT more contact, and probably avoid any on-field conflict.

ML: Is DL Hall ever a quality MLB starter?
Keith Law: Has the stuff. Has to throw more strikes. He’s too damn athletic not to figure this out.

Derek: Strasburg vs. Cole vs. Skenes as a college pitching prospect?
Keith Law: I’ll see Skenes later this month, but Strasburg was the best I’ve seen, and was slightly ahead of Cole. Strasburg showed you four pitches and the fastball played. Cole was more three pitches, but he’d get hit on the fastball more (and Savage called it too often).

Tyler: Does anyone currently playing specifically stand out to you as someone has reached their “everything goes right” ceiling?
Keith Law: I think that’s true of a lot of the guys I got wrong over the years, or guys like Arenado and Betts who just blew past even pretty favorable evaluations when young.

JR: If game times stay shorter (fingers crossed) do you see teams moving game start times around, maybe pushing start times back 30 minutes?  And who will be the first owner to gripe about food and beverage sales being down since games tend to be shorter?
Keith Law: Aren’t the start times about selling commercials early in the game?
Keith Law: Manfred claimed yesterday that concession sales aren’t down even with reduced game times. I don’t really care if I get home 20-30 minutes sooner without losing any baseball.

Zihuatanejo: Is it too early to proclaim Miguel Vargas the next Ed Yost?
Keith Law: It is pretty impressive that he’s become this patient (SSS) this quickly.

Chris: Why would the Yanks keep Franchy over Florial?  While theres no evidence Florial can hit, he has speed and defense.  We know for a fact Franchy has none of the three.  Is it simply a matter of him having an option for when Bader comes back?
Keith Law: Honest question – is it likely to matter? If either guy is playing often for you, something has gone seriously awry.

Heather: As a HOF voter, do you think the Baseball Hall of Fame has lost its luster?  It feels like every decent player eventually gets in these days.  The other night, on MLB Network, I actually heard Dan Plesac and the guys beside him start to make a case of John Olerud’s candidacy.
Keith Law: Yes, I think it’s lost its luster for many reasons. The various vets committees letting in guys like Baines and Morris have made it a bit of a farce.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat – thank you all for reading and for all of your questions!

Keith Law: To the chair in the room where I live and breathe. Klawchat.

Joe: Did you post an article about your scouting trip in Minnesota?  Maryland fan here hoping the first hand reports were not as bad as the box score.
Keith Law: No, I’ll file something after this weekend – I wanted to wrap both trips up into one post since this one probably wouldn’t be enough for its own.

Guest: Have you heard anything about how Thomas Saggese looks at Rangers minor league camp? Is he opening at AA Frisco this year?
Keith Law: Minor league games haven’t begun yet. I assume he’ll go to Frisco since he finished there after spending nearly all of the year in high A – he’s not going back down and I see no reason they’d jump him to AAA.

JT: Tennessee just allowed denying interracial couples marriage licenses.

How the hell does the GOP have a single voter? #%#*%$#*
Keith Law: Because there are a lot of people in this country who agree with their policies. Although I admit that Tennessee, with more than half of its population living in/near cities, should be far less reactionary than its legislature is.

JT: The Blue Jays have a certain MiLB hitter killing it in ST: is the best reaction from Jays fans that it’s cool his heights include this and then stay the course?
Keith Law: Spring training stats do not matter. They just don’t, and we do this every year, and they still don’t matter. Jays fans should just remember the year Gabe Gross led ST with 8 homers.

Scott: You have been evaluating prospects for quite awhile. Are you able to get the sense from young players who might become a future MLB coach or manager? If so, can you provide some examples?

I’m curious if those skills are able to be seen at such a young age.
Keith Law: No, that’s not what I’m looking for when I go to the ballpark to see a player.

Chris H: Thoughts on Ronny Mauricio?
Keith Law: You can see my report on him in my Mets top 20 and org report.

Snapper Bean: Any insight on why its taking the Phillies so long to announce what exactly is going on with Andrew Painter?
Keith Law: I mean, they don’t exactly owe us an answer immediately, right? Some of the hand-wringing I’ve seen online is a bit much. They might be getting a second opinion, or discussing options with the player. My only complaint is that they promised an update and didn’t deliver – just don’t promise the update.

Benito: Keith! Are you watching any of the WBC? Excited to see a fellow paisan like, uh, Matt Harvey, pitching for Italy?
Keith Law: I’m not – I like the WBC as a way to market the sport but the majority of the players involved aren’t prospects for me to cover, so I never watch much of it.

Edward: I heard chatter from the hosts on MLB Network Radio this morning saying the pitch timer should be eliminated after the eighth inning.

As someone who (I think) supports the timer, do you think turning it off in late innings makes any sense?
Keith Law: I do support the timer and I do not support turning it off in late innings. Players will adjust to it soon enough and then this won’t be an issue any more.

Ryan: Hi Keith. I know you’ve said spring stats hold little value but is/has there ever been a situation where your thoughts on a prospect’s MLB readiness what changed by how they performed in the spring?
Keith Law: Nope. Performance in ST does not matter. It has no predictive value.

Sean: Suffering Tiger fan here. Reports out of spring are that – despite not getting many hits, Torkelson is hitting the ball hard. Have you heard anything about that? We still believe in Tork? Thanks.
Keith Law: I still think Torkelson will be a solid big leaguer. Didn’t he hit the ball reasonably hard last year in the regular season?
Keith Law: He did, actually. So I don’t know what we would take from him doing the same thing against worse competition in games that don’t count. (I understand they probably count for him, as he’s trying to prove he deserves a spot on the roster.)

Iohn T.: How worried should the Yankees be about Rodon?
Keith Law: I don’t love hearing about pitchers with forearm strains, regardless of health history. But he’s also had so much arm trouble, including a TJ, that it seems like worse news than for a pitcher with a clean track record?

matt: Griff mcGarry seems to falling off the prospect radars a bit, what kind of factors are influencing that?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with that at all.

Brett: What do you think about Encarncion-Strand? Seems like he may actually have a shot at the OD roster with Votto still on the mend?
Keith Law: Power over hit with a lot of chase. I don’t think he’s ready to hit MLB pitching. He was #17 on my Reds top 20: https://klaw.me/3xdfXZz

Radar: How has working at The Athletic changed — if at all — since it was acquired by The New York Times?
Keith Law: For me, it hasn’t. I can’t speak for anyone else.

Brent: Any planned visits to central Indiana for Max Clark?
Keith Law: Yes but probably later this spring when he’s got some games under his belt. I’m hoping to see the big 3 HS bats – him, Jenkins, Nimmala – as well as McGonigle and Eldridge since they’re near me. Otherwise I’m focusing more on college guys since it’s a college-heavy draft.

Ryan: The Cardinals seem set on starting Lars Nootbaar every day this year. What was your projection of him as a prospect and do you think this was the right direction to take during the offseason?
Keith Law: I don’t think I ever wrote him up – he was a big swing change guy and he’s very different now from who he was in college or even pre-pandemic in the minors, when he had no power and you couldn’t project him as even an up-and-down guy.

Guest: Is a catcher’s game calling ability something to consider in evaluation, or not at all?
Keith Law: I think it is.
Keith Law: But I do rely on others to tell me when a catcher is good/not at that. There’s no way I could infer that from watching even several games, not without knowing who’s really calling pitches and game-planning behind the scenes.

Chase: I’m going to my 1st Spring training game in Scottsdale at the Diamondbacks park in a couple weeks. Any recommendations on the stadium, food, or another team/park I should try to visit?
Keith Law: Beautiful park. Probably my second favorite in AZ after the Giants’ place, but Salt River is also much bigger and easier to get into/out of. It’s close to Soi4, a Thai place at Via de Ventura/Scottsdale Rd that I’ve liked for a decade; and Andreoli Grocer, an Italian market and sandwich place. But you’re also a stone’s throw from Old Town Scottsdale which has easily a dozen or more strong food and drink options (plus a Cartel Coffee).

Holly: Early reports are that big Jackson Rutledge is impressing in Nats camp.  Is he a guy who could be a fast mover now?
Keith Law: If he’s healthy and he throws strikes and we see more of a third pitch, sure.

John: Can Andre Lipcious push for playing time with the tigers this year?
Keith Law: Sure, although there’s no ceiling there for me. Unless his swing has changed, he’s a low-power bat who doesn’t play anywhere he could be a regular. Fine to give him a shot and see what you have, though.

Matt: Will the Yankees listen to Judge about Volpe staying on the parent club, or are they gonna stick him in the minors for control?
Keith Law: I’m not a fan of letting players pick who else makes the roster. I do like Volpe a ton but I do not see how a month or two in AAA hurts him, while it could also let them give Peraza an extended look at SS.

Mike: Who do you see making the biggest impact between Jackson Rutledge, Jake Irvin, and cole henry over the next few seasons?
Keith Law: Irvin has the lowest ceiling of the three. All of them have substantial injury histories or questions. I think I’d take Henry but man I don’t feel good about any of them making a big impact because of health.

Chris: Just got back from a week and a half in Ariz for my first ever ST there. Saw 6 ballparks in 9 days.  Couldnt get into Pizzeria Bianco (line was way out the door at 11am open!) but did go to MBB and CRUjiente on my last day in Scottsdale, thanks for the recs!
Keith Law: You’re welcome! I’m looking forward to a trip out there at the end of the month, for scouting and for food.

Ryan: With Willson Contreras signed long term, Should the Cardinals look to trade Ivan Herrera, similar to how they traded Carson Kelly, or should they hold on to Herrera as insurance/backup?
Keith Law: I would look to trade him – he’s good enough to start for someone.

Mike: Think Caleb Kilian can turn it around and be a post-hype sleeper?
Keith Law: Can, yes. Will? I don’t feel great about it. He was a real mess in the second half last year.

Laci: Luis Garcia – top 50 SP this season?
Keith Law: I feel like the way they use him makes that unlikely – he is a good enough pitcher to be a top 50 SP but probably won’t pitch enough innings to get there by total value, if that makes sense. Maybe a top 50 SP on a per-inning bases, but not on a WAR basis.

Mike: Do you ever listen to podcasts like Rates and Barrels, effectively wild, or any other baseball podcasts?
Keith Law: I don’t, but it has nothing to do with the podcasts themselves – when I’m in the car, which is my only listening time, I either listen to new music or to non-baseball podcasts. The job eats up enough of my time that I’m rigid about carving out space for non-baseball time.

Ken from Entertainment 720: If the Yankees have a prospect that they  grade at 45 but the Twins grade him at 55 and the Twins have a prospect they grade at 45 but the Yanks think is a 55, why arent trades like this done?  It would theoretically improve each farm system
Keith Law: That happens sometimes, but I do think there’s the fear that you’re wrong about the 45 and he goes somewhere else and becomes a 60 while the guy you thought was a 55 comes over and becomes a 45 and suddenly you’re a 0.

Mike: Cj abrams got 6 lbs heavier… i know you mentioned he needs to bulk up, but i’m guessing thats not nearly enough?
Keith Law: He needs to get stronger, which sometimes means bulking up but can just be more strength in his hands/forearms. He joked about how hard it is for him to gain muscle, so the 6 lbs is a big deal for him whereas for, say, Aaron Judge, it’s a rounding error. The proof will be in the exit velos.

John: Do you watch Ted Lasso?
Keith Law: Yes, we watched S1 and S2. I like it, but I’m glad it’s ending after S3. I felt the premise started to wear thin by the end of the second season. I think this is the ceiling for a feel-good TV show.

Romorr: How did you feel about the Frazier signing for the Orioles, vs. say, a Vavra/Urias platoon? Add on some other 2B prospects being close, still not a fan.
Keith Law: Didn’t like it for the reasons you mentioned (esp prospects coming) and also because any money they spend should be on pitching at this point. Their lineup is not the issue.

Leith Kaw: Do you think J Walker should start the season in St Louis? Cardinals writers seem split on if the team will keep him down for more OF experience or start him in MLB to hopefully gain a draft pick if he finishes top 3
Keith Law: They have other OF options to sift through. I won’t criticize it if he makes the team – he has handled every promotion so far, no matter how aggressive – but I see a baseball reason to try other players first.

Karl: Should Bryce Miller start the season in AA? Does he have the opportunity to make it to Major Leagues this year or is 2024 the more likely scenario?
Keith Law: I think he makes the team this year at some point.

Mike: does isaac paredes have a good offensive profile to you?
Keith Law: So he is almost the complete opposite of the player I thought he’d be. I thought he’d make a lot of hard contact and hit for average with doubles power, but struggle to play any position at an even average level. Instead, he was a plus defender last year and made a ton of weak contact. So I think the answer to your question is no, but also I have no idea what to make of him at this point.

Mike: Do we have permission to believe in a Kelenic breakout?
Keith Law: Granted.

Edward: Do you ever miss being on TV regularly?

I’m sure the reflexive answer is “no,” but there are few better ways to build your brand.
Keith Law: It’s no and yes. There are things I miss, and things I don’t. But I also recognize people don’t watch those shows anywhere near as often as they used to. MLB Network has been kind enough to have me on a few times a year, and I always say yes if I can. I’d rather have the evenings either to go see players or spend time at home.

Bob Pollard: Should the Mets just give Baty the 3B job and see what happens? Do you think they will, or will they start him in AAA?
Keith Law: I would give him the job.

Lois: What are the biggest things that have changed about the way you evaluate players versus 5, 10, and/or 20 years ago?
Keith Law: Far more data today, of course, and widely available video.

Maddie: How legit is Addison Barger? Someone to watch if Merrifield or Biggio struggles?
Keith Law: When hasn’t Biggio struggled? Barger is already the better version of that player.

Mike: How do you feel about mackenize gore heading into 2023
Keith Law: If he’s healthy I’m still a big fan.

Erik: Any chance of a JJ Bleday breakout after moving to a new organization?
Keith Law: Needs a big swing change.

James: As a “new to football” fan was the Super Bowl a crushing loss for you, or just more of an “oh well”?
Keith Law: It was a crushing way to lose, but what a tremendous season for the Eagles. I can’t be too disappointed.

Carlock: Can Strider repeat with only two pitches?
Keith Law: Yes.

G: The Ricketts family’s republican donations / values have killed my Cubs fandom. Putting us cubs fans on the left in a really weird spot. Are most MLB owners this right leaning and just the Ricketts publicly are?
Keith Law: Yes. The Kendricks might be even more so. Randi Kendrick has donated millions to right-wing causes, including attacks on public education.

Jake: I know you aren’t a huge Mervis fan, but he has to be a better choice than Hosmer, right?
Keith Law: I would go Mancini > Mervis > Bryan LaHair> Gary Scott > Kevin Orie > Hosmer.

Chris: for Chase, I just got back from a week and a half in Ariz, i thought Cubs and Dodgers/Rangers stadiums were also nice (in addn to Dbacks), Angels in Tempe is kind of a dump and right on a busy highway
Keith Law: I can’t stand the Dodgers stadium. You’re right in the sun the whole game if you’re behind the plate. I wish they could put the thing on a turntable and spin it around.

JD: Seems like kids of MLBers have higher rates of making the Show and of being stars, compared to non-legacies. Is that just confirmation bias, or a real phenomenon?
Keith Law: The bias is in opportunities – if you’re the son of a big leaguer, you’re probably (not certainly) growing up in a higher-income household, and you will always get more attention from coaches, scouts, etc.

Paul: Is there a reason Langford isn’t universally considered a better hitting prospect than Crews outside of the famous name? They seem to have similar contact and walk rates and Langford clearly has more power. Am I missing something?
Keith Law: Langford’s also a better runner, but Crews plays CF now while Langford plays a corner. Crews is definitely more famous and has been a GUY since he was a HS junior. There’s a comfort level with the longer track record. I have had several scouts come back to me to say they’d take Langford over Crews, though.

Candler: Speaking of Luis Garcia, any indications that the Nats’ Garcia will take a leap forward this year? Still only 22 years old.
Keith Law: I don’t know of any reason to think so.

Juwan: Is Skenes a viable candidate to go top 3? Do you like his secondary offerings enough for that type of ascension assuming he stays healthy and continues performing well?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s on track to pass Dollander at this point.

James: If you were Rizzo, would you shy away from taking a Wyatt Langford second overall because of the prospect pool already accrued or would you leap at the opportunity to add another high end prospect in that area to give yourself a better chance of assembling your outfield of the future? Question’s really a resource allocation consideration.
Keith Law: Best player available.

Mike E: Thanks for sharing your anxieties on the airport in the newsletter. I also don’t have any fear in the actual flying part but the process of going through the airport can give me anxiety days in advance.
Keith Law: Thank you for reading. You can sign up for my free email newsletter here.

Brian: Is there a breakouts article forthcoming?
Keith Law: I have written one every year for as long as I can remember.

Matthew: Any hope for Forrest Whitley making the majors at this point?  Even as a reliever?
Keith Law: Yes.

Guest: FYI on the Tennessee marriage bill: it only allows people to refuse to “solemnize” a marriage; in other words, perform it. It does not allow county clerks to refuse to issue licenses, which is purely ministerial
Keith Law: There’s some disagreement over this.

Pat: Correction- The Tennessee HOUSE passed a bill that allows county clerks to ban interracial (& same-sex & interfaith) marriage. It still needs to pass the Senate & the Governor has to sign it.
Keith Law: Thank you. The Tennessee Senate is 81% Republicans, and the Governor is a Republican, so I think the odds are in the bill’s favor.

JD: Any guesses what will come out of the totally-not-about-Steve-Cohen baseball economics committee?
Keith Law: A bunch of complaining about players making too much money.

Jake: The Cubs are considering Madrigal at third. Can any team win with a lineup that doesn’t have one player projected to hit more than 25 HR’s and most under 15?
Keith Law: I suppose it’s possible, but you’d better prevent a lot of runs.

Danny: I’m going to Scottsdale for the first time next month- is Pizza Bianco easier to get into for lunch? Any other pizza reccos for Scottsdale/Phoenix?
Keith Law: Try the second location near the Biltmore. The crowds have been crazy at both spots, but especially the tiny original location, since the Netflix show about it aired.

Matt: Are velocities expected to come down with the pitch clock? Seems like it’s gonna be hard to tbeo
Keith Law: I think BA had a piece that the velocities didn’t come down in the minors last year with the pitch clock?

Kevin: Does Brandon Walter have a chance to be a mid rotation starter or is he destined to be a bullpen arm?
Keith Law: I think he’s most likely a reliever. Just watch some video of him to get some idea.

JR: As a Mets fan, which trade is going to end up “hurting” the most, Kelenic or PCA?
Keith Law: I feel like PCA at this point, although I refuse to give up on Kelenic.

Ben: What roasters are you buying from these days? You recommended Archetype a few years ago, and it’s become one of my favorites. Thanks!
Keith Law: I buy when I travel, mostly, Hoping to hit Foxtail when I go see the Rays’ kids next week and Cartel of course when in Phoenix. But I try to mix in some new places when I go to other cities.

Matt: Any idea what Sarah Huckabee is doing allowing 9 year olds to work? It sounds insane, even for the GOP.
Keith Law: Cheaper for employers than raising the minimum wage!

James: Is there an offseason for college pitchers? From the regular season to Summer league to Fall ball…. it seems like college pitchers have no break from throwing. I wonder if that has anything to do with these college injuries?
Keith Law: More college pitchers take the summer off every year to rest.
Keith Law: It’s hurt a lot of summer leagues’ caliber of competition but it’s better for the pitchers’ arm health.

Ike: Any reason to hold out hope on Nick Pratto? What do you see his role being in a year?
Keith Law: Yes, I still think he’s a potential starter, although he may need to do it somewhere else.

Matt: How concerned are you about Chase Dollander’s inability to find his slider this year? It looked like a legit plus plus pitch last year and now it’s just disappeared. Would an MLB team feel confident that they could help him get it back after they drafted him?
Keith Law: I get more concerned each week. Is it health? Hard to think of a comparable example of a guy going from a 70ish breaking pitch to a wildly inconsistent pitch that’s mostly a 45 without an injury.

Henry: If you’re Andrew Friedman do you stick with Miguel Vargas at SS, and hope to get someone before trade deadline? I feel awful for Gavin Lux.
Keith Law: Vargas at SS seems like a huuuuge stretch.

Jake: What do you expect to be the fastest pitcher eventually? When we were young, 100 mph seemed like a unicorn and now there are hundreds of people who can do that with of course varying results. Reminds me of the 4:00 mile but even that eventually plateaued.
Keith Law: I think the 104-105 range is the ceiling. I feel like there was some research on this maybe ten years ago that argued that 105ish was the absolute maximum given human anatomy. Maybe I’m remembering wrong?

JP: what do you expect from Brayan Bello this year?
Keith Law: League-average or better starter.

Isaac: Have you seen Jacob Misoroski live? The reports sound promising. Do you feel he can add a 3rd pitch and be a #2/3 type?
Keith Law: No, he’s only pitched in juco and then instructs last fall, before I got to AZ. Adding a third pitch is certainly possible but not a small thing.

JR: March Madness fan at all? Do you fill out a bracket (even if it’s just for a friendly competition with family/friends?)
Keith Law: No, basketball has always been my least favorite sport, and since I went to a college that rarely makes the tournament (and where athletics in general weren’t a huge part of campus life) I never got into it that way either.

GlennMo: I haven’t heard really any hype on Mikey Romero, which is odd in that market. Is he someone to be excited about possibly added some strength?
Keith Law: I like Romero as a potential solid regular at 2b or above-average one at SS.

SadinLa: Any hope for Jo Adell? Still looks enticing, but maybe I’m just fooling myself
Keith Law: I don’t know how you undo the damage done by the over-aggressive promotions. He didn’t belong in AAA and then he didn’t belong in the majors, offensively or defensively. He’s never recovered. When I talk about sending a player like Walker or Volpe or (pre-injury) Painter to AAA for a month rather than rushing him to the majors, this is what I’m talking about. You don’t want to derail a kid over what amounts to a few extra weeks of games in the big leagues. There’s very little downside to being conservative with a player who has little to no AAA experience or success.

Josh: Is Manzardo a guy you could see making a singnificant impact in the majors? Your write up was glowing, but seems like he may have been dinged for being relegated to 1st.
Keith Law: I think he’s the only true 1B on my top 100, no? That should tell you that I believe in his bat – I do ding those no-position guys quite a bit.

SadinLa: Does Will Benson get a fresh start in cincy? Watched him many times in A ball , he looked like a man among boys. Physical phenom back then
Keith Law: Gets a fresh start in a ballpark that rewards guys with power, even if the hit tool is lacking, but I think he’s got a long way to go with the bat still.

Trevor: This season may be the most I’ve looked forward to going to games and it’s all bc of the pitch clock
Keith Law: It removes so much dead time from the game that the experience of watching is just much better.

Isaac: Would you keep Harry Ford at catcher? Can he be a top 20 type prospect by years end?
Keith Law: I’d try to keep him at catcher until he either shows he can’t handle it or the bat turns out to be way more advanced than the glove (like Bryce Harper or Wil Myers) so moving him is the right developmental move.

foolsgold1971: Gavin Stons’s changeup is even better than advertised.  Am I overreacting?
Keith Law: It’s pretty good. Freaking Dodgers, man.

David: Have you read any books by JG Farrell?  I just finished Troubles and thoroughly enjoyed it.
Keith Law: No but I’ve sort of been working through the list of Booker Prize winners so I’ll likely read that and/or The Siege of Krishnapur.

Isaac: Evan Carter, crow-armstrong or Robert Hassel? Seem like similar players. A year ago it seemed like Hassell then a huge gap to the other 2, but I’m guessing that’s closed or reversed. Thanks as always!!!
Keith Law: Carter probably has the highest ceiling, PCA is the best prospect of the three because he has a high floor but also some ceiling.

AWC: Just when MLB inserts changes to make their games more watchable… They can’t reach an agreement with YouTube TV to carry MLB Network so their games are literally unwatchable. Make it make sense!
Keith Law: I feel like that might get worked out in time.

Not a cow: M.Bleis and de Paula have been getting a ton of helium. Are they elite talent type prospects?
Keith Law: Bleis was on my top 100 for that reason.

Ken: The guardians lack thump in their outfield. As much as we love watching Kwan and straw and etc, is valera an instant upgrade as soon as he’s ready? He seems to suffer from prospect fatigue, does he still have that impact upside?
Keith Law: Still has impact upside but definitely needs to improve some of his contact rates before he’s ready.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I’ll be traveling a lot this month so I don’t know when the next chat will be, but I will post a few scouting blogs as I see players, both amateur and pro, including one on Monday or Tuesday about some draft guys. Thanks as always for reading and for all of your questions!

You can see my writeup of four trades from earlier this week that came right before the 40-man deadline if you’re a subscriber to the Athletic.

Keith Law: When I get free, you won’t see me, here for dust. Klawchat.

Richard: Happy Thanksgiving Keith!!  Just a quickie:  with Jeremy Pena generally flying under the radar pre-season (not making the 100 prospects, etc…), was his strong season a credit to the major league staff, or rather he just wasn’t seen often enough by scouts in his brief minor league career?  Thanks!
Keith Law: I disagree with your premise. I had him second in the Astros’ system coming into the year and noted the jump in his exit velocities in 2021. He was hurt almost all of that season, though.

Signing Nimmo: It strikes me that Toronto wouldn’t have traded Hernandez without having a fairly certain replacement. Do you think they made the trade expecting to land Nimmo (he seems like the best fit) or do teams regularly gamble on this sort of thing?
Keith Law: I wonder if they believed Teoscar was more likely to repeat 2022 or regress and felt he wasn’t worth that expense given what else they could do with that cash in free agency or trade. He’s a solid player but hardly irreplaceable.

Signing Nimmo: Are Bellinger’s struggles mainly related to the shoulder injury or something else?
Keith Law: At this point, it seems odd to still blame the shoulder injury, but I suppose it’s possible.

TomBruno23: How can I enjoy the World Cup without thinking about how terrible Qatar and FIFA are?
Keith Law: You shouldn’t. I might watch a match or two, but my interest is low anyway with Italy out, and I won’t do anything to promote the event. The entire thing is repulsive.

addoeh: Any chance for a video chat, on whatever platform allows it, for your annual spatchcocking your turkey?
Keith Law: Yes, not sure when but I plan to carry on this annual tradition

The World’s Best Soundsystem: It seems like Miguel Vargas is going to get a legitimate shot to make the Dodgers roster out of Spring Training. Do you foresee anyone from the Busch-Pages-Outman-Amaya group getting regular ABs by mid season?
Keith Law: Busch seems like the closest/most likely of those four. Amaya’s not a regular, and I’m not sold on Outman as a regular given his swing and miss issues.

Noveau: Bit random, but putting aside the money they made, did the Upton brothers have disappointing careers?
Keith Law: I’d say so. Justin was done after age 30. How many highly athletic players like him are done that early without a catastrophic injury?

Jackie: When you BBWAA types gather in your secret clubhouse, do you ever question each other’s awards votes?  Do you go up to that one random voter who put Julio Urias 3rd on their ballot (and Daniel Bard 8th on the same ballot), and same, “Um, what?”   Or do you as a group just not care about the individual oddball votes, as long as the award ends up in the right place?
Keith Law: I care to some extent, like if a writer appears not to take his responsibility seriously, or has a history of favoring the home team (Tom Gage of Detroit, who of course won a Spink award, had Tigers atop his ballots several times when they were demonstrably not the best candidates). But  it’s not like we all see each other very often.

Jamie: What happened to Bobby Miller last year and has it affected the way you view his potential?
Keith Law: Um, nothing? what do you think happened to him?

KLB: Are you going to do a write-up of your NL ROY vote?
Keith Law: No, just because I had a couple of other things to write right as the award came out, and I’ve been busy with some family stuff. I had Strider over Harris because Strider’s season was so historic, but I have no issue with Harris winning.

PhillyJake: Pirates fan here.  Why does the owner of my team hate the the team?
Keith Law: Are you kidding? Bob Nutting loves the Pirates. He loves the free cash they generate even when they lose!

Sandra: Is AJ Preller’s approach going to lead to a sustainable contender or will shipping off every good prospect bite him in the ass by 2025?
Keith Law: Well, they contended in 2020, were in the race for a decent chunk of 2021, and then made the NLCS this year without their best player, so I’d say he’s already done that – but they could also hit a cliff in 2025 too.

Ray: Is Nick Gonzales the Pirates 2bman in 2023 and beyond?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Krontz: How do you think the Oakland stadium saga ends up?
Keith Law: In some way that screws over the taxpayers.

Moon Man: Do the Rays have significant lineup fixtures developing with Carson Williams and Mason Auer, or just some very smooth defense?
Keith Law: Auer has huge tools but I don’t think the contact skill is there to project him as a regular right now. Williams does too, but he was just 19 last year and he’s a shortstop, so he has a lot more time to improve and his position helps buoy his chances.

Guest: Hi Keith, thanks for the chat!  Seems the Mets really screwed up trading Endy Rodriguez for Joey Lucchesi.  Endy did not seem to be on anyone’s radar-was this a case of poor evaluation by the Mets?
Keith Law: Yes, it was a bad trade at the time that only looks worse now with Lucchesi getting hurt and Endy continuing to improve. He was enough of a prospect then that I praised the Pirates for snagging him in that deal (which sent Joe Musgrove to San Diego). I think Brodie just didn’t bother – he dealt prospects for big leaguers without regard to the relative values.

Mtd: Dave dombrowski calls you and makes you the GM starting now. What is your first player-related move you make?
Keith Law: They certainly don’t need me – they’re in very good hands with Sam Fuld. I’d say either work out an extension with Nola or go after Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts to play 2b.

Bill: Dodgers have until 5pm today. What would you do with Bellinger
Keith Law: Seems like a non-tender.

seans: Keith, what are your thoughts on Colt Keith and his performance in AZ?
Keith Law: He wasn’t very good for me … still young, but I wish I’d seen more from him at the plate.

Chris: Given the way the relief market has progressed, do you think a reevaluation of the way teams value elite relievers may be in order?
Keith Law: Until I see evidence that elite relievers’ performances over multi-year periods have changed, no.

Adam D.: How surprising has it been to you to see Farhan and company consistently miss on high draft picks? His entire philosophy is built on being to able to supply the major league club with cheap, young talent while also using some of that talent to trade for stars. Instead, seemingly everyone outside of Kyle Harrison has either stalled big time or is so far away that it might not matter when they’re ready because this regime may be gone by then.
Keith Law: Casey Schmitt is in the plus column for them, and I know Patrick Bailey has had back issues, which are pretty detrimental for a catcher, but I agree their first-round picks have not been inspiring. They’re all college guys (okay) but after whiffing on Hunter Bishop, a high-ceiling guy with huge exit velos and swing and miss concerns, they’ve gone lower ceiling and have missed there too. This year was a change in direction again, as Reggie Crawford is a very high-risk, high-ceiling college LHP coming off TJ.

Moon Man: After Adley was ROY runner-up, do you think the Birds are inclined to break camp with G-Rod in the rotation to increase his chances of taking home the hardware and bagging the extra draft pick?
Keith Law: I don’t think so given how they slow-played his return from an oblique injury this year and didn’t call him up to the big leagues at all.

Ben (MN): The Twins CF was not great when Buxton was out and involved way too many Gilberto Celestino at bats. In a situation with an extremely injury prone player like that, what would be your approach to the backup CF spot? Would you plug in the next person up, prioritize a corner outfielder who can handle center for 60-80 games if needed, or something else?
Keith Law: I like your second idea, getting a COF who can handle CF.

Tom: Keith, Nats SP Jake Irvin was recently described by Eric Longenhagen as a mid rotation SP and a 45FV. How do you evaluate him?
Keith Law: I’m quite a bit lower on him. Saw him in April, below average command and really scary arm action.

HH: Off-season reminder: the Australian Baseball League is up and running, and streams most of their games for free on YouTube. Witness the birth of a new market. Go Perth Heat.
Keith Law: Great tip.

Tom: Who should wsh draft with the first pick in rule 5 draft
Keith Law: No idea. I hate the rule 5 draft. The CBA in 2010 gutted it and the MLBPA missed a chance to fight for players’ rights. The available player pool has very few prospects in it and the results are even worse – in the last three rule 5 drafts, I think the only decent big leaguer has been Garrett Whitlock. Akil Baddoo had one okay season and then was awful in season 2; a team with a better system probably would have outrighted him by now.

Ben (MN): I went on a trip to Ireland this spring and went on an Irish literature kick after visiting the Irish writer’s museum. I’ve especially enjoyed reading modern Irish authors like Kevin Barry. Do you recommend any Irish authors other than the obvious ones (Joyce, Wilde, Shaw, etc.).
Keith Law: David Mitchell, Flann O’Brien, John Banville. Plus Anna Burns’s Milkman.

Chris: The Astros’ farm system has been ranked by many outlets as being a bottom-five system the last few years, yet they continue to produce home-grown talent? Is there anything you have seen in their graduated prospects you think you (or any other pundits) missed while they were in the minors?
Keith Law: Who have they produced other than Peña in the last two years? It’s a lot of guys who were already up and then improved in the majors, which is still a credit to the org but doesn’t impact their rankings in any of our eyes – Framber Valdez is a great development story, but he hasn’t counted as part of their farm system since the 2019 rankings.

Christian (Raleigh, NC): Hi Keith — As a fellow Agatha Christie enthusiast, I appreciate your review of ‘See How They Run’ and hope to see it soon. I am very much looking forward to ‘Glass Onion’ as well. Do you think we will see more of the classic-style whodunits in theaters and/or on TV given the success of  movies like Knives Out, etc.? I would definitely watch…
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. The American movie industry is as risk-averse as it comes. If the budget is more than a few pennies, the movie has to be a reboot, a sequel, or a knockoff of something else successful. Or by Jordan Peele.

Josh: Of all the shortstops do you believe that Correa will age the best?
Keith Law: Yes. Helps that he’s the youngest.
Keith Law: If you give him and Judge deals of the same length – say, 8 years – you’re getting both of their age 31-35 years, but you’re getting Correa’s age 28-30 seasons and Judge’s age 36-38 seasons.

Don Keedic: Who is the bigger injury risk: Rodon or Nimmo?
Keith Law: Oh Rodón, for sure. He’s a pitcher.

Mike: After seeing his rookie year, how likely is it that Oneil Cruz reaches his ceiling? And what would that look like? Seemed like he started making adjustments towards the end of the year, giving me hope he won’t be a .200 hitter
Keith Law: He was good enough in the minors that I am not less bullish on him now after a partial season in the majors that had some very high points amidst the struggles.

Samwise: Given that players on megadeals mostly aren’t worth the amount they’re paid in their final years, but also that you’re not going to land one without a willingness to commit those extra years – how far would you be comfortable going on Judge (if you had the money/need)?  Six years at a high AAV, understanding that the last 2 might be rough?  Seven?
Keith Law: I’m fine with six years with that understanding. It’s the talk of eight to ten years that makes me roll my eyes. That’s talk -radio stuff.

Prospect hound: What are your current thoughts about Matt McLain?  Average gonna be there?  Can he be above avg reg?
Keith Law: Fringe regular at this point. Not enough impact and definitely not a SS.

Francis Ford Coppola: You’re not a huge fan of my first two “The Godfather” films? I believe they’re not on your list of the top movies from the 1970s.
Keith Law: I don’t recall ever posting a list of my favorite movies of the 1970s.

Baseball: It’s Fun!: Many predictions see Adam Macko as a future lockdown reliever. What in particular holds him back from being a starter, besides durability? Is it something mechanical you think the Blue Jays (who seem to view him as a starter) could unlock, or is relief a surer bet?
Keith Law: Durability is by far the biggest reason. I also don’t think he has the command.

Jim: Keith, thanks as always.  Any thoughts (or care) about who’s going to be the House Minority leader?  (And nice shade by Pelosi saying she served under 4 Presidents when it’s been since Clinton…)
Keith Law: I’m glad it will be someone under 60.

Jay: Should the Angels trade Ohtani this winter?  I don’t see a realistic way they’re contenders  in 2023, and he seems like a guy looking to bolt for more successful pastures.  I can’t fathom what a reasonable return for him would be.
Keith Law: They should, but they won’t. I did hear, sort of third-hand, that he produces so much revenue for the team that no trade could make financial sense for them. And I believe that.

Gandalf: Who are a couple injury-prone or injury-history free agents that you see as a good gamble for 2023?  Heaney, Conforto, Brantley?
Keith Law: Yep, all three were on my top 50 free agents ranking. Conforto does worry me with his lower exit velocities in 2021 … this was a guy who needed a bit better contact quality, not worse.

Alex: No surprise Joc accepted the Giants QO but how surprised were you they offered him one?  They must think we no shifts allowed next year his production is going to go way up.
Keith Law: Maybe they just valued him as close to the QO number and preferred the devil they knew on a one-year deal than perhaps having to replace him with someone else on a two- or three-year deal without getting any more production.

Heather: Any red flags you see in Triston Casas, or should the Red Sox pencil him in for 150 games at first base next year?
Keith Law: I think he should get the majority of starts at 1b next year.

Gary R: Genuinely not trying to be a jerk, but how do you reconcile “I might watch a match or two” and “the entire thing is repulsive”? I ask because I am personally torn – I want to watch but it seems like tuning into any matches is just giving them my support in a small way.
Keith Law: What does me watching, say, the Wales-U.S. match (important in this household) do to support the World Cup? Very little. And once those teams are out I doubt I’ll watch another minute.

John: Sad news about Seth Romero.   Given that his curveball was once ++, will someone take a chance on him since it was “only” alcohol and weed?
Keith Law: His curveball wasn’t ++. His changeup was. He struggled with the breaking ball, and with control, and of course off the field. I don’t think he gets another chance until he shows some evidence that he’s willing to undertake major changes in his life. I hope he does so.

J.D.: After allowing Tyler Anderson to leave, are the Dodgers OK with what they have or do they need to go out and sign a good starter?
Keith Law: I bet they go sign someone.

chauncey: you opinion on the mlb award winners?
Keith Law: I think those were my choices for everything but NL RoY (ironic, since I actually voted on that), and I said above I’m totally fine with it. I don’t care about MoY. That’s just whoever ran a team that won more regular season games than expected.

HH: Why don’t more teams try to do what Cleveland did with Tony Wolters and try to convert more blocked prospects to catcher? Cleveland alone has a glut in IF, why wouldn’t they try again?
Keith Law: I don’t have a great feel for why more teams don’t do it other than perhaps risk aversion (don’t want to screw up a good prospect?). Wolters is a great example because he had a MLB career only because they converted him.

Heather: Any predictions on the upcoming “Contemporary HOF” vote next month?  Do Bonds/Clemens peers care less about the PED issues?  Any chance the committee says, “Yeah, all eight of these guys were a lot better than Harold F. Baines, so they all get in”?
Keith Law: I doubt Bonds/Clemens get in. I’m still fuming that Whitaker isn’t even on the ballot. It’s a fucking joke.

Jack: Hey Keith.  Love your chats. Do you believe Tatis when he says he got clostebol from ringworm medication?
Keith Law: I do not.
Keith Law: I’ve had ringworm, because I like to garden. It’s really annoying. It’s also easily treated with an antifungal.

Jamie O: If Jake Eder survives TJ, how high is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter, maybe more.

Villepont: Which top prospects with the shine worn off are prime for a change-of-scenery trade?  Kelenic, Adell, Robles?
Keith Law: I read Adell as “Adley” at first and was like, whoa, what did I miss
Keith Law: Those are all good choices although I think Kelenic can and will improve in Seattle. Forrest Whitley, maybe? Senzel comes to mind but I don’t know that changing orgs will do anything for him.

Paco: Hola desde España! f you could use statcast on any ballplayers of yesterday, who and what would you want to see? I’ve always
Keith Law: Willie Mays is the easy choice, no? Sprint speed and exit velocity?

Romorr: I know it’s hard to put a successful off-season on money spent. But with Elias saying it’s liftoff from here, and a payroll of 41 million heading into 2023, what is the least amount of money spent for this to be considered a successful off-season in Oriole land?
Keith Law: Really depends on who they get. They could spend a lot of money for limited return.

Holly: The worst Christmas song of all time (besides Christmas shoes) is?
Keith Law: “Step Into Christmas” or “Simply Having a Wonderful Christmas Time.” Both make me want to clean my ears with Brillo pads.

Jesse B: What are you thoughts on Daniel Lynch at this point? Does he still have a decent upside or backend starter?
Keith Law: He seems like job 1 for the new coaching staff in KC. They have had way too many top-flight pitching prospects fail to launch after reaching the majors. I think the new regime & pitching coach will at least help one or two of that group figure it out, and Lynch seems like the best bet, as he was the best prospect coming up and has the best arsenal right now.

Jay: Ten and a half months, and counting, left in the Chaim Bloom Era in Boston.  Are you as giddy with anticipation as New England is for the first Monday after the 2023 season?
Keith Law: No, but I’m not delusional.

Jamie: I guess I just meant statistically it didn’t seem like he had the great year that was expected. But I also wasn’t exactly watching his starts.
Keith Law: re Bobby Miller? He struck out over 30% of batters faced in AA and AAA with low walk rates and acceptable HR rates. I’m not sure what you’re seeing here but he’s fine.

Alex in Austin: If you had to pick one from this group for next year, who would you take: Gunnar Henderson, Josh Jung, Nolan Gorman.
Keith Law: Henderson.

Guest: Can you think of any logical reason to add a player to your 40-man ahead of the Rule5 draft who’s never played above A-ball?  Asking for my friend, Mike Rizzo, GM of the Nationals…
Keith Law: Because you believe someone else might select him and try to keep him.

Marani: Thanksgiving’s cool.  What’s your dumbest American holiday?  I have to go with “St. Patrick’s Day”.  What’s the point?
Keith Law: As someone with a bit of Irish heritage, I have zero interest in St. Patrick’s Day, also known as “Amateur Night.”

Tim: Isnt every elite reliever a failed starter?  Seems like if you can get 5-6 innings out of a guy vs. 1 inning per appearance you would every time.
Keith Law: Yes.

Salami Iconic: I know your feelings about Volpe but am not sure I have a clear understanding of how you view Oswald and Oswaldo- potential above-average regulars?
Keith Law: Cabrera no, Peraza maybe.

Kevin: What would you do to change the MLB offseason to make it more condensed like the other pro sports? I feel like if the MLB offseason ended by Xmas would be ideal as then you get football playoffs up to when pitchers and catchers report
Keith Law: I think an artificial deadline like that might only help owners, and I don’t want to do anything to help owners. They are doing just fine on their own.

Josh: Are you going to write up the Sea-Ari trade from yesterday? Would love your take
Keith Law: Probably not. Lewis has pretty much zero history of staying healthy and all the missed time has hurt him at the plate too. I’d rather have Hummel.

RAWagman: Klaw – as Twitter continues its rapid descent into hateful chaos, do you plan to run newsletters more often, or switch to posting your thoughts on a different platform?
Keith Law: I’ll stay there while it’s up, but I just sent out another newsletter today (it’s free! sign up here) and I’m on a few other sites as we wait to see what happens.

Finnegan: Garrett Whitlock is often cited on Red Sox message boards as being Chaim Bloom’s “best” move.  What am I missing?  I’m seeing an injury-prone middle reliever with vaguely above-average stuff.
Keith Law: Got 4+ WAR in two years for $50K and took a reliever from their direct rival. Nice move, no?

Ray: will Dalton Rushing stay at C! And where should he start the 2023 season? He tore up Low A.
Keith Law: Yes, and double A.

Anthony: I think Sox need to make Devers their best offer now and if he doesn’t accept trade him.They cannot afford to lose him next year for a draft pick.What say You?
Keith Law: Sure. I guess you could trade him in July, too.

Dr. Rich: Is Brent Rooker a pick up of note for rebuilding A’s or just another in a revolving door of 40 man COFs in the last 12 months?
Keith Law: I like Rooker for what he is but he is a stretch for everyday duty. Great Twitter follow, though.

Campbell: Now that he’s finally (fingers crossed) gone, what will you miss most about Tony LaRussa?
Keith Law: The easy to mock in-game strategic blunders?

Michael: Is Matt Mervis going to be Bryan LaHair 2.0? Or is he just a late bloomer because Duke had him pitch?
Keith Law: LaHair was nothing at all, and I don’t Mervis is that. Calling him a late bloomer is a bit of wishful thinking, though.

Quinn: Any plans to review Tár or Armageddon Time?
Keith Law: Yes but I have to see them first.
Keith Law: I have a policy of not reviewing movies until I see them. It’s an integrity thing.

CW: Lucchesi was traded by the sex pest, not Brodie.
Keith Law: Ah, thank you.

vogslaw: Wasn’t Trevor Stephan a Rule 5 success for the Guardians?
Keith Law: If that’s a success, it proves my point. He’s a solid but replaceable middle reliever. That’s what you get in the rule 5 draft.

Kevin: most overrated traditional thanksgiving dish? For me, it’s the turkey, better cold on a sandwich.
Keith Law: Longtime readers know I hate the gloppy gooey mess of green bean casserole. I also really don’t like any traditional sweet potato dish … they’re already sweet, why the fuck did you put brown sugar in there? And marshmallows? Are you eight years old? They’re a root vegetable, not Lucky Charms. Just double the stuffing and move on already.

Moe Mentum: Scott Kingery – what happened, and what’s next?
Keith Law: Phillies messed with his swing and he’s never quite been the same.

Caleb: Will be playing 7 Wonders for the first time this weekend.  Any advice for a newb?
Keith Law: It can be intimidating because there is so much to track on the cards. The main advice I’d have is try to balance your card plays so you have access to all six of the game’s resources by the end of Age II, either on brown/gray cards you played yourself or via yellow cards that let you ‘buy’ them from your two neighboring players.

Moe Mentum: I’ve never read an Agatha Christie novel. Where do I start?
Keith Law: Death on the Nile. I think that’s the first Poirot novel.’

Tom: What would you think of a Gallen, Kelly, Jameson, Nelson, and Pfaadt rotation?
Keith Law: Solid, but you might need a little more in that division. I’m not totally sure Jameson’s a starter although I’d start him out there.

Guest: Is Austin Wells a candidate to play C/1B for the Yankees this year? Do you think they’ll give him time at other positions this year for a multi-positional role?
Keith Law: I do not think he can catch on more than an emergency basis in the majors.

alex: DL Hall more likely long term, starter or reliever? Any comps based on stuff + lack of command recently?
Keith Law: I will continue to bet on his athleticism and that his command will improve. It’s not “recently,” as he’s had command and control issues since high school, but he went from a 15.6% walk rate in high A in 2019 to a 13.4% walk rate between AAA and the majors last year.

Guest: Is the Martian on the radar to contribute next season? He’ll enter this season with about 100 PA between AA and the AFL
Keith Law: Maybe in September.

Ken: Billy Beane moving to a “senior advisor” role for the A’s. Does this mean he’s basically one-day-a-week consultant? Any meaning for staying in Oakland versus moving to Vegas?
Keith Law: I don’t think this is any real change.

Ken from Entertainment 720: I know Clayton Beeter is a 50 grade on MLB.  Does he have top 3 upside or is he a 4/5 guy?  Also who is the  most likely prospect to end up at first base in the current Yankee system?
Keith Law: Durability & questions about third pitch make me think back end starter.

Jack: You don’t think Harris deserved NL ROY?
Keith Law: I said twice that I thought he was deserving.

David: Do you ever feel like there are too many books and not enough time? I have a list of things I want to read and every time I finish one I feel like I’ve added four more.
Keith Law: Always. I think I have 20-25 in my queue right now. Currently reading Nadine Gordimer’s The Conservationist, which I got for like £3 at a used books stall in Cardiff in August.
Keith Law: I do tend to read books in the order in which I got them, especially physical ones since it’s like a FIFO queue in real life.

Clay, Rutherford: Are you excited that the WBC is returning in the spring?
Keith Law: I am. I think it’s great for the sport.
Keith Law: Very much rooting for Team Czechia.

Appa Yip Yip: The Jays added Spencer Horwitz to their roster. Do you think he has a big league future? Can he stand in LF and not look foolish?
Keith Law: Tough choice there – if they didn’t protect him, someone takes him, but I think he’s an emergency call-up guy. No position, nowhere near the bat for a DH/1B type.

Greasy Nick: Would you rather work in a fine dining kitchen or an MLB front office?
Keith Law: I’m only qualified for one of those jobs.

Ken: Is there a reason that posters keep using Bloom’s full name when asking you about him?
Keith Law: I can’t possibly imagine what you mean…

BK: Kevin Smith had a rough year in his first season in Oakland. Do you see him bouncing back as the regular at third or will he fill more of a utility role?
Keith Law: Still buying.

davealden53: Question about the Tyler Anderson signing.  With the Dodgers’ qualifying offer of $19.65M, Anderson only needed to earn $10M each in 2024 and 2025 to exceed the deal he signed with the Angels.  That would seem a fairly low hurdle.  Does this imply that Anderson is risk-averse or is stability worth the potential lost income?
Keith Law: If you had his injury history, with just one good year since ~2017, wouldn’t you lock in the extra $20 million guaranteed?
Keith Law: I think it’s very rational.

James: What is the greatest individual tool you have ever scouted.  Like for example amateur Bryce Harper power
Keith Law: Joey Gallo’s power.

Old Hoss Radbourn: With twitter coming to an end, should we admit we are the same person?
Keith Law: We take this to our grave(s).
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for today. Keep an eye out … um, somewhere, maybe Twitter, but IG Live if Twitter isn’t functioning, probably on Wednesday as I take your questions while spatchcocking our turkey. Thanks as always for reading and following. Have a wonderful holiday!

Starting at 1 pm ET. I have two posts up (one and two) covering about three dozen players I saw in the Arizona Fall League, both for subscribers to The Athletic.

Keith Law: You’re calling all the shots. Klawchat.

James: Dave Roberts did nothing to warrant losing his job, right ?
Keith Law: Right. Really don’t understand the hand-wringing over the Dodgers losing a short series to a very good team.
Keith Law: This is the playoffs. We have upsets. It’s not about crowning the best team, but about crowning a champion. You have to accept that distinction or stop watching.

Jimmy: Team farthest away from being a playoff team?
Keith Law: The Rockies, for me.

Jimmy: Julio Wander or Witt next 10 years?
Keith Law: A healthy Wander. But I would bet all 3 make many All-Star teams.

Heather: What will you miss the most about the Liz Truss Era?
Keith Law: The lettuce.

Turner: Do you plan to read Cormac McCarthy’s new novels when they come out this fall?
Keith Law: I wasn’t aware he had any new novels coming, if that says anything.

Turner: The Orioles have a lot of hitters and few pitchers in their system. Is turning some of those hitters into an established frontlineish type starting pitcher something that can actually be pulled off or does it just sound reasonable in theory.
Keith Law: I think they have to do this, and it’s feasible. They have surplus at a couple of spots, including shortstop and the outfield. They’re not going to be able to get at bats for all of them if these guys all continue on their current trajectories, so converting a package of 3-4 of their hitting prospects into an above-average starting pitcher would be ideal.

RD: Kirby or Gilbert long term?
Keith Law: Kirby, given equal health.

Ken from Entertainment 720: Question on BABIP.  How do I know when it is skill or luck.  If a player is hitting .325 and has a certain BABIP how do I know if that .325 is based on skill versus luck on an elevated BABIP.  If his BABIP is sitting at .425 okay I get it it is luck (or the next Ted Williams) but if his BABIP is say .340 what factors do I use to determine luck versus skill here.
Keith Law: For starters, it depends on the hitter’s history of BABIPs – if he’s got a .340 BABIP this year, is that higher than his career norm? Much higher? OK, is he hitting the ball consistently harder? Or have some groundballs become line drives? Has his swing changed? Andres Gimenez went from under .300 in his first two stints in the majors to .353 this year. He changed his swing and started making much harder contact. That increase is some skill and some randomness. In his case I think it’s more of the former, based on what we see and what the data say.

barbeach: Hello KLaw!  Thanks for the chat.  What are your thoughts on what you’ve seen in the MLB so far from the Yankees’ Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera (SSS alert, I know!)?  Thanks much.
Keith Law: Peraza barely played. Cabrera showed similar skills to what we saw in the minors; he’s a low-OBP guy with power.  Probably not a regular for the Yankees.

xxx(yyy): big picture – was Kumar Rocker the right or wrong choice for the Rangers at #3? not asking if they should have taken another specific player, just if you think the process they went through to end up with Rocker was sound in your opinion
Keith Law: It truly depends on what’s going on with his arm, and I just don’t know the answer to that. If his arm turns out to be fine, it’ll be a solid pick. If not, meaning Texas evaluated the issue incorrectly or ignored/undervalued it in choosing him, then that was the wrong choice with Collier, Termarr, Green, etc. all still on the board.

addoeh: Being compared to Daniel Vogelbach only sounds bad if you think you have Anthony Rizzo 2.0.
Keith Law: Agreed. It was also very strange to get that kind of reaction about a prospect in a system that’s loaded with guys who are top 100 prospects or banging on the door – PCA, Triantos, Alcantara, Made, etc. It’s not like it’s Mervis or nothing over there.

Alex: With some luck, I can see the Pirates’ position players forming the core of a contender but it seems like their best young pitchers have #2/#3 ceilings. Do you think the Pirates can build a playoff-worthy rotation out of their system if their window opens in the next few years?
Keith Law: That’s probably right on the upper minors pitching. We’ll see how guys like Chandler and Solometo come along in the next year or two. This was their first full pro season, and both looked very good in limited time.

AM: I wasn’t a big fan of the Bucs picking Nick Gonzales and I worry that Termarr Johnson is similar- no clear defensive home and some questions about the projectability of the offensive tools given they’re a bit undersized. Am I overreacting?
Keith Law: Very different players. Gonzales was a college guy, so less risk for that reason and less upside. He also played at altitude, 4000 feet above sea level, which really skewed his performance and data. Termarr was a high school draft, so more risk there, but a better athlete with a better present hit tool on draft day. I’d be very surprised if Termarr didn’t become a better defensive 2b than Gonzales is.

Jibraun: Do you have an ETA on when Masyn Blaze Winn could be called up to the majors? Is mid-2023 too optimistic?
Keith Law: I think that’s too optimistic. You asked about Herrera taking over as catcher – I would like to think that’s their plan, and then Walker comes up later, and then Winn after that or even in 2024. He’s very talented but nowhere near as far along in his development as Walker.

Yankees Homer: Hey Klaw, what do the Yankees do about the left of their infield next year? IKF and the Racist are clearly not the answer. Is Volpe ready next year? How about 3B? Thanks!
Keith Law: I’m a Volpe guy. I’d try to get him 120 games or more in the majors next year. Even if he struggles at the start I believe he has the aptitude and athleticism to make adjustments.

Scott: It came up in your last chat that you haven’t seen Miguel Bleis yet.  I had noticed he wasn’t mentioned in your preseason prospect summary on the Red Sox.  Is that because he’s so far away?  The consensus seemed to be that he was the best FCL prospect this year.  I’m curious if you’ve heard enough from your sources that he might be in consideration in your next top 100.
Keith Law: He was only in the DSL in 2021 and didn’t stand out in performance or to scouts I know who saw that league. Different now that he’s played in the US against better competition and in front of more people.

Sage: You spent any time with Steve Stone?
Keith Law: Not really. Met him once over a decade ago. He was very friendly.

Jeff: I wonder if the Dodgers “failures” in the postseason are more due to approach and strategy towards a short series more so than anything else.  They seem to have a bullpen game in virtually every series including the most recent game 3 which was after not playing in round 1 and a day off between games 2 and 3.  I know the postseason is a small sample size so its not entirely indicative of who is the best team but when you have so much talent and you lose more than you win, something has to be the cause other than the randomness of the outcome of a baseball game/series.
Keith Law: How could we truly distinguish that from the randomness of a short series? I don’t know if we could. I also kept thinking the series might have been different with a healthy Buehler, although that’s all hypothetical (and then don’t you have to ask the same about Padres/Tatis?).

Alex: The Giants have been fairly clear they expect Kyle Harrison to be part of their rotation next year.  Maybe not at the start of the season but sometime during the season.  Is this a realistic expectation and what do you see as his ceiling/floor?  Thanks for all the great content and taking my question.
Keith Law: During the season seems very realistic to me.
Keith Law: Ceiling/floor is the kind of thing I will discuss at length in offseason prospect rankings. He’ll be on the top 100 again, and was on the midseason rankings.

Dave: So if gender identity is not metaphysical, but rather a matter of observable biological reality with (as you say) “clear scientific evidence” then shouldn’t we be able to test for it? That would allow us to prevent “false positives” and separate the truly trans from the future detransitioners, who are an ever-growing group of mostly-young people and whose stories are genuinely heartbreaking.
Keith Law: Autism is a matter of observable biological reality with clear scientific evidence, and we can’t test for it in the sense you mean. The last clause of your question is anti-trans propaganda.

Aaron C.: Did you hit up any new restaurants in the valley during the AFL or did you opt to play the “greatest hits” instead?
Keith Law: I have either four or five new ones to write up.

JT: Have we seen a statistically reliable post season series yet this year?
Keith Law: Is that a thing? Is it even desirable?

Greg: Hey Keith, do you see Justyn-Henry Malloy as a future every day left fielder or is he not at that level?
Keith Law: Yes.

Philip: Jackson merrill top 30 prospect now?
Keith Law: My gut is no, but I also haven’t sat down to start that exercise of ranking the top guys yet.
Keith Law: Top 100, sure, that’s an easy call. Top 30 is a very different question.

James: predictions for both series ??
Keith Law: I said Padres and Astros for the site.

Mo: Is it a fair criticism of the Cardinals that they seem to do very well in developing mid-level talent from out of nowhere, but have struggled to develop stars the last decade?
Keith Law: Is it? Flaherty would qualify as a star for me. I guess you’re not giving them Gallen, which is fair given where he became an actual star. Who have they had prior to Carlson/Gorman and the next wave who should have become a star, though? They had the 2017 draft where they had no picks till the third round. Prior to 2015 they had a lot of reach picks and have always drafted late in the first round anyway. I see a lot of value produced in the system overall but not many “he should have been a star but isn’t” guys.
Keith Law: If Carlson and Gorman flop, then the question is different.

Aaron C.: 30 years ago, guys like Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor were considered top prospects despite the lack of secondary pitches and an astronomical walk rate, respectively. Was there a singular turning point (a failed prospect, a draft year, an organization?) that opened the door to your predecessors/peers getting smarter?
Keith Law: The advent of the data era. We went from teams ignoring even basic performance data in the 1990s and prior to now teams hunting for tiny advantages in more granular data, finding a lot of hidden value but sometimes missing the forest for the trees.
Keith Law: I’ll take this mode of thinking over the old way, though.

Mo: What kind of slash line do you see from Masyn Winn when he gets to the majors? Will the bat a weapon or will he be a glove-first guy?
Keith Law: The glove will be valuable before the bat is.

Dave: As the only Cubs fan not currently furious with you, what did you see from Owen Cassie at AFL? I promise not to throw a tantrum if the answer isn’t to my liking.
Keith Law: I wish I’d seen more, actually. I liked him in the spring, but didn’t get many swings from him in the AFL.

Adam: Do you see Hunter Brown as a starter (top or bottom of rotation) or bullpen arm long term. Been very impressed so far.
Keith Law: Reliever, due to command.

Zac: Is Kerry Carpenter anything more than a 4th outfielder?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

nelson: every postseason i’m struck by how seemingly fragile a starting rotation is. in your opinion do teams generally do a good job with pitching strategy in the postseason? it’s often so different than what you would see in the regular season. is there anything that could better prepare them for success?
Keith Law: I don’t have a good answer to that.

Michael: Thoughts on the potential of Kodai Sanga?
Keith Law: He’ll probably get paid to be a starter, but I know a lot of folks question whether he can be a starter over here. He’ll be on my free agent rankings when they run next month, but isn’t in the top tier of guys.

Mason: So when do we cancel the playoffs and annoiunt the LAD rightful champs?
Keith Law: That was such a bizarre column – the first one, at least – and then someone tried to pit me against that writer on twitter, which I am not interested in doing at all.
Keith Law: And then other people piggybacked on this stupid idea. I think the Dodgers were the best team in baseball in 2022. The best team doesn’t always win – not in the playoffs, not in a series, not in any particular game.

James: Do padres have a legit shot to win it all ??
Keith Law: Don’t all four teams still in the playoffs have a legit shot? Once you’re in, you have a shot.

Jason: I got my (senior) parents Everdell last year and they play it daily, often four times or more in a day. Any suggestions that could follow the style of game but with a new/different play style? They love the fact that there’s so many ways to play.
Keith Law: That’s great to hear. Wingspan has a good bit of that too – you can win lots of ways, and often your best strategy is based on your starting cards, requiring you to play differently each time – and I think Lost Ruins of Arnak has some too, although that game is about twice as long as Everdell (2-player Everdell can be 35-40 minutes).
Keith Law: Raiders of the North Sea might fit too.

Aaron: First you criticize the Cubs for getting overly cute in the draft and taking a pitcher in a top-heavy hitting class. Then you trash an UDFA with a short track record of success. Why do you hate us so???
Keith Law: Heh. To be fair, I didn’t trash Mervis. I explained what I saw, which is consistent with the data from his time in the high minors AND with what other scouts who’ve seen him told me. I think he has some big league value.

JT: How ridiculous is the count the rings means of ranking individual players?
Keith Law: Doesn’t Clay Bellinger have three rings? So he’s miles better than Ernie Banks, right?

Chris: Do you think Carlos Correa would stay healthier at 2b? And do you think he’d be a good 2b or would he be better at 3b? Asking as a mariners fan whose president said yesterday they are looking to sign a SS who wants to move to 2b
Keith Law: I’d try third base if I wanted to move him. Second base isn’t necessarily a better position for staying healthy – the double play is always more hazardous for a 2b than a SS.

grobaba: How often do you buy frozen vegetables?
Keith Law: We always keep a supply in the freezer. Peas are the #1 choice, but we usually have that, corn, broccoli, one or two other things.

JT: Is there any chance that the Truss produce fail signifies a potential end to reckless austerity programs and small government?
Keith Law: Seems unlikely, no? But I don’t know British politics well at all.

Appa Yip Yip: What would you do with the Jays catcher situation? I’ve seen people floating the idea of playing Moreno at 3rd and the outfield but that seems like a poor use of resources.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t move Moreno. Defense is a huge part of his value. They could try to mix and match him & Kirk this year, and then trade one for something else they need.

Steve: Can Gorman hit enough for 2b or is he a DH going forward?
Keith Law: Oh his power will play anywhere. Are you asking if he can handle 2B defensively? I always thought he would.

Justin: Hi Keith. The Pirates currently have some pieces in place and coming soon like Cruz, Hayes, Reynolds, Bae (f*** him, but just reality that he’s here and decent at baseball), Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis, and some decent pitching.   Their payroll projects around $45 million next yr.  Do you think the better path would be to do something like trying to catch lightning in a bottle by getting payroll to $90 mil with additions like Jose Abreu and a few decent SP, or to just tank again with the cheap team they have?
Keith Law: If the owner were willing to spend – stop laughing – I’d go more for up the middle than an older corner bat like Abreu. You probably want to be more risk-averse in free agency, and more risk-loving in amateur player acquisition.
Keith Law: And yeah, some innings guys might help.

Chaz R: Verlander will likely opt out of his contract and become a FA. Should Astros resign him? If so what do you think the contract would look like ?
Keith Law: Yes, any contender should be interested, and given what he’s said about chasing wins milestones they’d remain a good fit.

Chris: Is Jake McCarthy real player? And who from the outfield mix is the odd guy out in Arizona? I know all players won’t develop and it’s not a surplus but who gets the chances?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s legit, and I wonder if Alek Thomas ends up elsewhere.

Ana: Regarding your claim that the sex binary is a myth, how is that true? Are you using “sex” to define something other than gametes? Every mammal is the product of *two* parents, one providing a small mobile gamete (sperm) and one providing a large stationary gamete (egg), and nobody produces both. This is fundamental science and the basis of complex evolution, which requires heritable traits that get passed down from *two* parents to their offspring. Two parents, two gametes = sex is binary. Any attempt to complicate beyond these facts is no longer an attempt to define “sex” but rather something else entirely. It’s a semantic game.
Keith Law: That’s just wrong. Biological sex is determined by chromosomes, not gametes, and there are more than just the two most common combinations (XX and XY). (Ana and Dave are the same user.)

Jim: Keith, what are your thoughts on the draft lottery in place for 2023?  On the one hand, it should somewhat lessen the urge to tank (with only a 16.5% chance of the worst team getting the top pick).  On the other hand, with it being instituted late in the off-season (well, in the middle of what should have been ST), does it unduly punish teams that may have planned the season under the old rules?
Keith Law: It seems like it has altered teams’ behavior, so I’m a fan.

JR: What has been the most disappointing adaptation of a beloved book into movie/TV show for you? For me, it’s Pachinko (which I believe you’ve read) for two reasons: 1) they tried to tell all facets of the story at same time by sharing a little bit of each era each episode; and 2) instead of using the book story as season one, they went it it with the idea it would be a 3-4 season story, so added a ton of extra details/characters/back stories (which I get you have to do in TV), but overall a huge disappointment to me – and I loved the book.
Keith Law: American Gods. Book is amazing. I never bothered with season 2 after the disappointing first season.

Henry: The NBA has established a great model by canceling all games on Election Day, and encouraging voting. MLB has done nothing, and their equity marketing is abysmal. What’s it going to take for MLB to catch up?
Keith Law: The players. The NBA and even the NFL are ahead because the players pushed it. In MLB, that’s not a thing. I’d guess a nontrivial minority of MLB players believe in the Big Lie.

Mike Trout: Should the Mets prioritize Nimmo? Of all their free agents he seems most likely to live up to his next contract.
Keith Law: Does he? Two full healthy seasons as a big leaguer. I’d be concerned about durability.

Bob: Is Endy Rodriguez a regular or is there more ceiling? Seems to be some question about his power. What days KLaw?
Keith Law: At least a solid regular.

Guest: In your estimation, what went wrong in the development of Corey Ray? I thought he was a near “can’t miss” prospect
Keith Law: Great question and I don’t have a simple answer. I do think it’s telling, and was probably a sign, that someone with his speed and athleticism couldn’t handle centerfield and wasn’t even very good in left. I do wonder if another organization might have handled him differently when he struggled right out of the gate, too. Eventually he changed his swing to get to power but at the cost of contact, and at that point he was pretty much finished.

Insert Witty Name Here: Oh been so long since I can get to a live Klawchat.  My wife and I have been discussing the whole transgender issue, and we have a question we want a third party to answer: what’s the threshold for a percentage of a population to where their rights become a “priority”.  Example: black people represent 16% of our population, I should prioritize their civil rights.  Transgender people are about 5%. While I personally believe that everyone should be treated fairly and with respect, is 1 in 20 people enough to where we need to prioritize their struggle? I believe you even said so yourself that it’s really a political strategy to demonize a small minority to rally up the base, is that correct?
Keith Law: What does “prioritize” mean to you here? Black Americans, gay Americans, women, trans people … they’re asking for the same rights as everyone else. Nobody is trying to give trans people more rights than cis people. However, a large movement – which is demonizing a small minority to rally their base, with the complicity of most of the national media – is trying to deny trans people basic rights, and to deny women basic reproductive rights, and so on. I do not lose anything when other people have the same civil rights that I do. I think I gain, because our society is better when we treat others as equals, and extend kindness rather than fear, ignorance, and hate.

TomBruno23: Unless you want to play a best of 75 it is not possible to have a statistically reliable postseason series, whatever that means.
Keith Law: Yep.

JJ: The stat line says that Nick Yorke took a solid step backwards this season.  He was viewed as a reach when the Sox took him in the first round in 2020, but he had a big 2021.  Is he still the second baseman of the future?
Keith Law: Maybe? I am uncertain after a not-great look in the AFL. He still has a great fucking swing, though.

addoeh: When you went to Alaska, did you do a cruise or just fly into Anchorage?  Did you go to Denali?
Keith Law: Only to Sitka for a weekend while I lived in Seattle. I would love to go to Denali and other parts of Alaska. My wife has never been so it’s on our short list of trips we’d like to take.

James: Do you do these chats at a coffee shop ??
Keith Law: I have, but I’m home right now.

Jon: How confident do you still feel about Dylan Carlson? I know you were high on him I’m still hopeful but this year was a tough one for him
Keith Law: I’m still in. The history of my breakout picks (he was one of mine for this year) says he’ll break out in 2023.

Scott (nyc): this may be a dumb question, but catchers seem to be the worst hitters, but shouldn’t seeing so many pitches as a catcher help them recognize spin and break while hitting?
Keith Law: Don’t catchers usually know what’s coming? Aside from the angle being so different, catchers know the pitch type, so they’re not using part of their brains to decipher that, while hitters must.

Ryan: Should we be concerned about Geraldo Perdomo? His average exit velocity is in the second percentile. It seems like he just needs to get physically stronger.
Keith Law: Yes, I share that concern, for that reason.

Kruk93: more surprising Phillies squad – 1993 or 2022?
Keith Law: I think 2022. The 1993 team won the NL East.

Steve: What would be your prescription for the Rays to improve their anemic offense? Seems like they should trade one of Glasnow/McClanahan/Rasmussen/Springs for hitting (the latter two more likely). A healthy Wander will obviously help but even aside from him and a couple others (Arozarena, Y.Diaz) it’s a wasteland, and guys who were supposed to inject some life into it (J.Lowe, Brujan) haven’t looked like they can hit much at the big-league level.
Keith Law: When you’re below the league median in both OBP (barely) and SLG (by a fair amount), you’ll be below the league median in runs per game. So fix one or both of those things. Wander will help. They may have to be patient with Lowe and Brujan. And going out to get a thumper wouldn’t hurt.

Marvin: How aggressive should the Yanks be with Jasson Dominguez next season? He seems to have shown the ability to make adjustments.
Keith Law: They already have been – he finished the year in AA and the AFL as a 19-year-old. He’ll start next year in AA in his age-20 season and I bet he’ll be in AAA by the All-Star Break.

TomBruno23: Aaron C…check out Bobby Witt’s numbers in college and in the minors. Man.
Keith Law: Funny, that’s exactly the name that came to mind. Zero chance he goes in the top ten today (he went third overall).

xxx(yyy): was Evan Carter just a guy who fell through the cracks and would in a “typical” year, or just a result of a COVID year draft?
Keith Law: Scouts saw a lot of swing and miss from him in high school. Texas took him high, so I don’t think he fell through the cracks – we don’t know if a bunch of other teams were waiting in the wings on him, either. I still think he’s too passive at the plate.

Jon: Assuming Cruz moves off SS, is Liover Peguero a guy or a GUY?
Keith Law: More of a guy. Disappointed in multiple looks at him this year. Needs to get stronger, but also his approach was behind where I thought it would be.

Sharlott: Gut on what Judge signs for (whether its the Yankees or not)?  Even with the superb season, I just don’t see him getting astronomically more than he turned down because of the age/injury-risk, no?
Keith Law: I think he gets more years than is prudent, but a lower AAV.

James: Do you like Joe Davis broadcasts or do you still watch on mute ?
Keith Law: Joe is fantastic. I’m very happy any time I hear his voice. Unfortunately I have not found the app that lets me hear him and mute Smoltz.

James: Thoughts on gas prices, inflation, direction of economy ? What grade would you give Biden so far ?
Keith Law: I don’t think any President has much if any control over gas prices or inflation, unfortunately. Lot of things a President can affect, but gas is a global commodity, and we are subject to the whims of the market. When the Saudis choose to cut production – and that’s a whole can-open-worms-everywhere situation – we’re largely at their mercy. I also think inflation would be less of a concern if wages were keeping pace, and that is something that the President could do more to help when his party controls Congress.

Tracy: Book question: any recommendations of mysteries? Thanks!
Keith Law: The Magpie Murders by Anthony Horowitz.

JR: Are tommy john surgeries/serious pitching injuries trending down? The past season or two feel like there have been less. Perhaps all the steps organizations are taking to protect arms are working? O
Keith Law: I don’t think TJs are trending down across the whole sport, but I believe that other significant arm injuries are down.

Chris: About how much of your boardgame time is spent replaying tried and true games from your collection vs trying new ones?  Back when I first started playing games, we’d get a lot of plays in on a smaller set of titles and really get to explore the different strategies and meta-strategies that develop from repeated plays.  It’s much harder to do that now when folks around the table want to try the shiny new thing (and the collection has gotten much bigger as well).
Keith Law: Way more playing new stuff. I would prefer to balance it more with family favorites, but I get so many new games to review and I want to try them all.

Nick: Thanks for the chat. Did you get a chance to see any of the Tigers contingent in AZ? Meadows appeared to make some improvement this year and Keith was off to a good start before the injury.
Keith Law: Meadows wasn’t good for me. Keith also had a rough week.

TomBruno23: Ryan Loutos…not exactly a top prospect although his background as a Wash U pitcher on the doorstep of the majors is cool. Also cool is the scouting analyst who signed him is Julia Prusaczyk. Women in Baseball. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/cardinals-righthander-ryan-lou…
Keith Law: 93-95 with what I thought were two distinct breaking balls. Reliever all the way. He’s something, though.

Michael Bluth: Where does Bryan Reynolds settle in as a player? 3-4 WAR most years?  Better than that?  And defensive metrics hated him in CF, is that likely to change at all?
Keith Law: I think a 3-4 WAR corner outfielder is about right.

Billy: How does Jordan Lawlar look in the Fall League? AZ Republic quoted a scout who said he looks better than all the rest of the Dbacks players. That’s incredible, since Carroll looks like a stud.
Keith Law: He was in my first AFL notebook, linked at the top of this chat.

JT: “Two parents, two gametes = sex is binary. “

Remind Ana that there aren’t only two eye colours, too, hey? How two gametes mix has to produce an I/O sitch?
Keith Law: It’s a rather weird, new to me transphobic argument. Just leave other people and their bodies alone. It’s not your business.

John: To what extent does WAR take into account how often a player is on the field?  I assume it doesn’t.  But if I sign a high WAR player with an injury history (thinking Correa), then I really need to make sure I have a relatively strong utility player who can fill the gaps. Viewed through that lens, would it be preferable to sign a player with a slightly lower WAR but who stays on the field more (e.g., Bogaerts, if we ignore that his WAR was slightly higher than Correa’s this year)?
Keith Law: Of course it does – if you hit at the same rate in 80 games vs 160 games, your WAR for the latter total (ceteris paribus) will be a lot higher.

Swinging A’s: Zack Gelof, just a guy or a GUY.  Thanks Keith
Keith Law: I’m in. He’s a GUY.

twinkie town: Did you get a chance to see Edouard Julien in Az?   If yes, your impression?
Keith Law: All I saw was him taking pitches. My gut reaction was that he is also too passive.

Michael: “When should I prioritize their civil rights?” What a joke. How about not try to willfully hurt anyone?
Keith Law: Do unto others, no? I thought that was in that book the transphobes are so fond of?

Todd: Thoughtrs on Will Warren Yankees? Legit MLB starter?
Keith Law: Reliever. Wrote him up in August.

Mike: Do you think it’s a coincidence that Bader, Donaldson and Torres will all have their contracts run out when Volpe, Peraza and Dominguez should be ready for MLB full time?
Keith Law: I do not think it’s a coincidence, at least around Volpe. I’m pretty sure they were low key betting on him being ready for 2023, recognizing that the free agent market would probably cover them if he wasn’t (and that’s before we knew Correa would get an opt out).

Ollie: Did you have Daulton Varsho becoming an elite defensive outfielder on your 2022 bingo card? Because I sure didn’t! Wow, he’s such a good athlete.
Keith Law: I absolutely, 100% did not have that.

Michael: Hey James, check out how inflation is in other countries compared to the US. Much lower here
Keith Law: The Euro zone is around 10%, almost 200 basis points above ours.

Insert Witty Name Here: By prioritize, I mean changing my usual behavior.  For example, is a pronoun really a rights issue? If I mistakenly call a “they” a “him”, that person gets upset. Is 5% of the population a large enough sample size to where I have to be fully cognizant of what language I use? And if so, what’s the threshold for us to have to worry about everyone preferences? 2%? 5%? 10%?
Keith Law: Using proper pronouns is a hardship?

Dave: You’re running the Orioles. Do you spend on a starter and let the young position players play?
Keith Law: Yes, and see above for more on what I would do (and expect them to do).
Keith Law: I don’t think they were actually as good as their record this year, but I also think they will be a flat-out better team next year even without outside help. So give them outside help and they might be a 90+ win team.

Kevin Made: Did you get Cristian Hernández and I mixed up in your earlier response to the Mervis question?

Also thoughts on Jordan Wicks’ new slider? Stuff+ loves it. Does it bump his ceiling up?
Keith Law: I did not confuse the two of you.

TomBruno23: Interesting episode of The Daily this morning about how Republicans are using Inflation, Crime and Immigration as the issues to sway swing voters.  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000583…
Keith Law: I saw a ridiculous number of political ads and billboards in Arizona, and the two most common themes for Republican candidates were the border (overblown, but at least they’re a border state) and … fentanyl. It’s like some focus group told campaign managers that fentanyl was a new four-letter word or something. Nobody is putting fentanyl in your kid’s Halloween basket. You can’t get sick just by touching it. All these myths about papers soaked in fentanyl and fentanyl wiped on car doors … they’re hoaxes, and also ridiculous, because what user or dealer is just throwing the stuff away anyway?
Keith Law: You know what I didn’t see mentioned anywhere? The pandemic, which has killed over a million Americans. Or wages.

Mike: Global inflation is the product of 10+ years, and multiple adminstrations, artificially depressing interest rates by increasing the money supply.  Inflation at some point was a mathematical certainty – it was just a matter of when and how high.
Keith Law: Good point.

Michael: Hey Keith- I know changing of a manager is usually not worth more than a couple wins. Was there something specific in the change from Girardi to Rob T that made it such a huge impact on the Phils season? Or are you not buying that the change was the reason for the subsequent success. Post hoc ergo propter hoc or no?
Keith Law: I am more inclined to believe such a change mattered when specific players improve after the change in meaningful ways – like Stott.

Appa Yip Yip: If you meet someone named Thomas and they’re like actually I prefer Tom is it a hardship to call them Tom?
Keith Law: Don’t a lot of people get irrationally upset if they’re called ma’am instead of sir or vice versa?

ChrisP: How soon before Neto gets to the big leagues? His skill set seems like he might be a quick mover
Keith Law: I would guess by mid-2024.
Keith Law: Although it’s the Angels, he might be up next week.

Guardians: What do we have in Nolan Jones? Future big leaguer?
Keith Law: Big leaguer, more likely a platoon or bench guy than a regular.

Insert Witty Name Here: You’re not getting the point of my question.  We haven’t been using “they/them” for that long as a social issue.  Because they only represent 5% of the population, is there another population of people that represent 5% to where we have to change our usual behavior to their preferences because of their feelings? If I call a they/them a him because they look like a typical man, why should I feel bad about that?
Keith Law: The singular they/them has existed for centuries. Just ask people and try to use their pronouns. Also, I’m 1000% certain that the biggest issue for LGBTQ+ folks isn’t pronouns. It’s their right to exist.

TomBruno23: Has Mike Matheny managed his last MLB game?
Keith Law: Nothing personal against the guy, but I think that is for the best.

xxx(yyy): what is your at home coffee routine/process?
Keith Law: I either use a V60 pour-over or make an espresso macchiato (so a double shot with a small amount of foamed milk). I go back and forth. The former has more caffeine because I use about 20% more coffee by weight, so sometimes that’s the determining factor. Today I needed that extra 20%. And then that’s usually my only coffee for the day.

James: Did you watch the Pizza show on Netflix ? With Bianco in it
Keith Law: No but I need to. I tried to go to the original location when I had an unexpected window on Saturday and they had a four-hour wait – it hasn’t been like that in years. Great for them. Less so for me.

Todd: How much of a concern is it that after the November elections, Republicans will have so much control that a plain sight coup is actually possible? Validate elections that only benefit them
Keith Law: Everyone should vote their conscience. I do believe that our democracy’s health is very much at stake this November, though.

Tracy: Too many books, so little time?
Keith Law: Absolutely. I’m about 3 behind in reviews now, too. And I have the Hugo winner (A Desolation Called Peace … what a pretentious title) checked out from the library, and would like to get the Booker winner soon too. Plus I bought seven books at Changing Hands in AZ.
Keith Law: I could live in a very small house if I didn’t have all the books and board games.

Todd: Piggy backig off the above, how far removed from Trump’s mere existence do we have to be to actually get back to pre Trump politics? Or a sense of rationality
Keith Law: Last question for this week … No political movement is going to go away if it works. If voters reject a movement, it’ll die off, and in our case the party in question will swerve to something else. That’s true for either party, for any movement. Trumpism will endure as long as it wins elections. When that stops, the Republican Party will shift to a different set of ideas or policies, or perhaps another candidate. The same would be true for Democrats – it’s not the same thing, but the party abandoned a lot of its principles during the Clinton era for the sake of retaining power. I don’t think this is any big insight.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat. My next big post for the Athletic will be my free agent rankings, which will run after the World Series ends, maybe the next day depending on the schedule. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions!