My most recent post at the Athletic covered most of the prospects I saw in the Arizona Fall League last week.
Keith Law: I built this thing for you. Klawchat.
TomBruno23: What role, if any, should the Democrats play in helping to solve the issue of the next Speaker?
Keith Law: None. Not their circus. Let the other side struggle.
Sam: Any good food recommendations in the Raleigh area?
Keith Law: Bharvana Brewery, MOFU, Beasley’s, Poole’s Diner, Jubala Coffee.
mac: Is there a systemic problem in the yankees’ approach to hitter development? Do you see Volpe, Peraza, Pereira, and others’ helplessness against major league breaking balls as linked or coincidental?
Keith Law: I don’t see the link other than that two of those guys (Volpe and Pereira) were promoted to the majors before they were ready. I think Volpe will adjust. Pereira was having trouble with contact in the minors so the promotion was pretty risky.
Dave: Does the tremendous success of Jackson Holliday impact how teams view his brother, Ethan?
Keith Law: Yes, naturally, but I’m not sure that it should. It’s just human nature to assume they’ll follow similar paths. Everything I’ve heard on Ethan is wildly positive, though, even before Jackson became the #1 pick in 2022.
Ian: What in the world is going on with the Red Sox?
Keith Law: I have no idea. Some of the names that have been floated have been … uninspired?
Chuck: Glad to see you posting on Bluesky a bit. With Twitter suppressing links and non-blue checks, it’s become increasingly useless. The conversation on Bluesky seems like Twitter 10 years ago.
Keith Law: I’m on Bluesky more than any other place because of what you just said – there’s some actual conversation, and a lot of my favorite Twitter follows migrated there already. I’m still on Threads and Spoutible as well. I’m not that invested in any particular site taking off, but I want to be where you folks are.
Alex: Maybe too long for a chat, or maybe not possible with publicly available data, but… while your player analysis is franchise-agnostic, is it possible to apply sabermetric analysis to team-level competencies? E.g. we know that Cleveland and Los Angeles have a track record of success at improving pitchers in their farm system. Tampa is *really* good at assembling a bullpen. How rigorous can we get in analyzing those kinds of skills?
Keith Law: We do know these things, but they’re also quite subject to change – if one particular coach leaves an org, do they take that competency with them? I don’t view any of those things as permanent to a specific club.
Sedona: hey Keith, I enjoyed your read on the MVP predictions. Too bad we couldn’t get your thoughts on NL ROY. Wanted to see your thoughts on Nolan Jones. He’s shown even splits home and away as well as righty vs. lefty (very unusual). He’s gonna strike out a ton, but hits for a high avg. What to make of this? The next CGON?
Keith Law: I’m not really buying that as sustainable … there’s still a ton of swing and miss there even with the benefit of altitude. He had a .401 BABIP this year! I do think the L/R evenness is a function of playing half his games in Denver, so the LH breaking stuff that gave him trouble in AAA isn’t breaking as well, giving him more of a chance. I think he’s a useful but flawed player.
Bret: Have you seen Jung Hoo Lee play enough to have an opinion on his MLB potential?
Keith Law: He’ll be on my free agent rankings later this month.
Greg: I just can’t imagine Vaughn Grissom is in the Atlanta organization next year. What would his value be in a trade? Could he bring back a controllable starter like Cease?
Keith Law: By himself, no, but in a package, sure. He’s valuable – I think a lot of teams would see him as a future starter.
doug dennis: When might we expect an updated prospects list? thank you for your work.
Keith Law: Prospect rankings will be in late January/early February.
Andrew: Any thoughts on the Tigers moving Jung to 3B, as has been reported? I was surprised because I thought Keith would play 3B and Jung 2B. Can either be an above average defender?
Keith Law: Keith probably ends up at 1b. I wish I’d see Jung play third in the AFL but he DH’d the one game I saw him play, and didn’t start the other two times I saw his team. It was not my most productive AFL trip with several days where all games were at the same time plus some odd lineup choices.
Ryan: Two part question. When do you see the Brewers bringing up Jackson Chourio, and when should they bring him up? I assume both answers will be sometime in 2024?
Keith Law: Yes to both. I wouldn’t rush him, and I don’t think they will since CF is one place where they have depth.
Louie: Do you think Tyler Stephenson has any trade value left after a pretty poor season both at the plate and behind the dish? With Reds bringing Luke Maile back, it feels like he could be on the way out.
Keith Law: I thought his 2021 was kind of his ceiling, but 2023 seems way below his true talent level. I’m shocked that he’s not making harder contact – that was his profile as a prospect, in HS and in the minors when healthy, a catcher who might be power over hit but you can live with that for that position. So yes, I think he has trade value, since there are always 6-8 teams looking for help behind the plate.
Marc: Keith, have you seen enough of Nick Gonzales to say he’s not a first division 2B? Not a big board game person but bought Lacrimosa based on your review and my wife and I love it. Anything you’d recommend that’s similar is style of play? Thanks!
Keith Law: I’m probably the wrong person to ask on Gonzales because I’ve always been a skeptic, at least since he signed; I took a fair bit of grief from Pirates fans for leaving him off my top 100 several times, but I saw below-average D and too much of a dead-pull approach. He needs to make several changes to be a regular. I’m thrilled you like Lacrimosa – check out Red Cathedral and Merv: Heart of the Silk Road.
Larry: Why don’t the Astros play Chas McCormick every day? 3.8 fWAR, above average vs lefties and righties. Am I missing something?
Keith Law: About ten years too young, maybe?
Keith Law: I don’t know any details, but I thought the Astros dismissing Sara Goodrum, kind of a rising star over there, when that system keeps kicking out players who exceed expectations was surprising, even before we consider the bad look of firing one of the highest-ranking women in any baseball ops department. She’d be a good hire for any team.
JJ Picollo: Is trading Salvador Perez to the White Sox an actual thing?
Keith Law: Why would the White Sox do that?
Matt C: Who is your preferred pitching prospect between Chase Hampton, Tekoah Roby, and Jairo Iriarte?
Keith Law: Roby.
Guest: I saw your report on Chase Delauter’s wonky swing mechanics. Do you think he gets exposed in AAA and MLB?
Keith Law: I think that’s the risk; it’s what several area scouts around here expected, given the hips and the swing and his tendency to cheat to get to good velo. I noted that there are guys who get away with suboptimal swings, so I don’t mean to say this is definitive, but I’m more worried about him getting exposed at those levels than other hitters of comparable performance and backgrounds.
James: Will Twitter still exist in 2 years?
Keith Law: Yes, but it’ll be like Gab or any of those other highly siloed right-wing sites.
Mike: Is Luis matos just a manny margot offensively? I want to think he has more pop but was curious on your thoughts
Keith Law: More raw power, yes. I thought Margot would hit for more average than he has – .274 is his season high – given his contact skills. Matos is similar in a few ways but he’s got more now power.
Jake: Michael Fulmer is going to miss 2024 with a UCL and is out of contract. If he filed for workers compensation to put some money in his pocket, do you think teams would retaliate against him over it?
Keith Law: I saw that news this morning and took him off my rough cut at a top 50 free agents – he was on the bubble – but I thought maybe someone signs him for two years.
Brian: Do you think the Phillies will resign Nola or will he leave?
Keith Law: I can not imagine they let him walk, especially if they get to the World Series again. They have to be so flush with cash, he’s their one FA of note (everyone loves Hoskins, but they just don’t need him), and you’ve seen the old Nola again the last two months.
Codey: Almost 1 year later. What would your update be to the DBacks BlueJays trade? Varsho/Moreno/Gurriel
Keith Law: AZ definitely ahead so far. Surprised Varsho regressed that much.
Keith Law: I had Moreno as a top 6 prospect in baseball before he came up, though, so I could have a little confirmation bias here.
Ryan: The Dbacks have a gaping hole at third base. The Rays have a ton of depth at third base (Paredes, Diaz, Caminero, Mead, and Aranda). They also have a need at shortstop right now. Does a trade involving Perdomo for Mead make sense for both teams?
Keith Law: Three months ago I would have said yes. After seeing Mead play defense in the big leagues, I’m less sure. The game sped up on him really quickly.
Brad: Would you have Schwarber in the leadoff spot if you were managing the Phillies?
Keith Law: No.
Mike: Dj herz looks like a weapon, but in what capacity? Not many bullpen arms throw only 92
Keith Law: Might throw a little harder in the pen. I think he’s a reliever, FB/CH only with deception, maybe he becomes a bulk guy who goes once through the order?
Codey: Why do you think prospects are going through the minors what feels like quicker than ever these days?
Keith Law: Great question without a single explanation. Some I think is teams realizing players can be ready sooner than the one-level-per-year norm. Some is teams realizing those players are cheaper than veterans – 80% of the production for 5% of the price. Some is the advent of better data that should help teams make better decisions (e.g., Boston promoting Roman Anthony to high A). But I also worry it will encourage MLB to further contract the minors.
Duncan: Do you think Alek Thomas will ever be a decent or better major league hitter?
Keith Law: Yes. He’s only 23 and boosted his contact quality quite a bit this year.
addoeh: If there is anything to change with regards to the wild card round, I would get rid of off days. If there has to be double headers, so be it. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Players hate doubleheaders – they’d oppose that. I sort of agree with you about off days in general … I think days without baseball are bad for the sport. This is one of our strongest times of year, with NHL/NBA barely starting, the NFL obviously there but in a quieter part of their season, and yet we just give away real estate with days that would never have games.
JR: Can you pray to the baseball gods we get some close postseason games and/or game 7s? This postseason has lacked much drama to date.
Keith Law: Some great individual games but I agree that we need a long series or two. TEX/HOU might go that way after last night. Houston’s bullpen remains ridiculous.
SJ: Any hope Elly stays at SS? If not, can he stick at 3B or will he follow his fellow Cruz Oneill to RF?
Keith Law: I give Elly a way better chance than Cruz.
Brad: Long time fan, love your work. Am I right to be very underwhelmed by the Chris Getz promotion seeing as how he had a major hand in making this roster what it is?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think he had anywhere near as much of a hand in the MLB roster as you seem to think. I’ll be very curious to see what he does with far more autonomy. He’s definitely a change from Williams/Hahn.
Codey: would any of next years top 100 ranked hire than this years Corbin Carroll or Gunnar Henderson to start this season?
Keith Law: I don’t know. Holliday is obviously still my #1, and he’s in that range too. I might have gone Carroll, Holliday, Henderson? Hard to say because we now have a year of big league data on two of those guys and they were, to use the technical term, fucking awesome./
George: Questions about two guys you didn’t touch on in your AFL article: Hassell and Herz from WSH. Whats your outlook on Hassell now, after almost a year and a half of poor performance following his hamate injury? and is there anything there with the crazy k/9 numbers with Herz?
Keith Law: Herz I just answered. Hassell has gone backwards, unfortunately. Maybe he just changed his approach too much because he didn’t have his hand strength back earlier in the year, but now he’s kind of stuck in the wrong gear.
David: How much do you care that the best baseball team each year is likely not going to win the World Series? Should we celebrate the best regular season teams more? Or should this whole debate just stop and we all just enjoy baseball?
Keith Law: You know what I’m going to say. Just enjoy the baseball. And by the way, is anyone really going to argue that the Phillies or Rangers or Astros aren’t actually the best team? They all look pretty damn good to me. Isn’t October as much about who’s got their A roster healthy as anything else?
Harry Potter: When evaluating a prospect, how do you factor in something like Tommy Troy playing most of the year with a broken foot? Or do you factor it in at all?
Keith Law: I always factor injuries into evaluations.
Codey: do you still believe in Drew Jones as a top flight prospect potential wise? Or has his struggles/ injuries since draft day scared you off of that?
Keith Law: I see a lower floor than I did before. I also know we haven’t seen him fully healthy since he signed.
Cwsoxfan: Please come to FPAZ, eventually. ?
Keith Law: First Pitch? It’s really too late for me to come to the fall league. By that point a lot of the better prospects are gone.
Brad: Everyone here in Chicago seems to believe that trading Burger is like trading Sosa or the cubs trading Lou Brock. To me this is his ceiling and it’s about a 2 WAR player. What do you think?
Keith Law: Yeah the OBP problem really caps his ceiling. Nice player. If he turns into a star, I would say that wasn’t likely to happen in Chicago.
Jay: I wouldn’t say I struggle with mental health, but I can’t put the damn Twitter down and as a result I cannot get my mind off this dumpster fire of a country and world we’ve got here. Have you benefited from not being on Twitter as much as you used to, or do you just keep up with the shit show in other ways?
Keith Law: I’ve definitely been happier using it far less. Some fan of a specific team got mad because I tweeted about one bad strike call but not others, and it was just such a reminder of how stupid that site has become. (I was on a plane most of that day and happily offline.)
Dr Who: Do you have any thoughts on Kim Ng leaving the Marlins? I thought she was doing a pretty good job over there.
Keith Law: It sounds like she stood up for herself in the best possible way. The most concerning detail I’ve read is that the owner wouldn’t let her hire her own people for some scouting and PD jobs. If that’s true, then she’s not really the GM! I believe she’ll get another opportunity this winter or next. I’m not saying the glass ceiling is gone, but it’s cracked, at least.
Matt: Apologies if I missed your coverage on this, but curious about your thoughts on Rintaro Sasaki forgoing the NPB draft to play college baseball. Are there development advantages to going this route or is this more about earning potential?
Keith Law: He’ll get paid a lot sooner this way, assuming he stays healthy and performs as expected. I’m not sure we want a flood of Japanese and Korean amateurs coming here and damaging NPB/KBO, though. I’m all for players getting paid, but I don’t want to see two of the three strongest leagues in the world destabilized, either.
John: What is the deal with Andrew Vaughn? Seems to have actually taken a step backward this year. With his limited defensive value this worries me
Keith Law: He was one of my breakout picks for this year who plateaued instead. Really thought that approach from college would carry over to pro ball but he has never gotten the patience back.
Sedona: Is Jakob Marsee in consideration to make your top 100 on your next update?
Keith Law: No.
Cwsoxfan: Will Montgomery / Ramos actually be the future of our MI? Thanks
Keith Law: I wouldn’t bet on either guy being in the middle infield
Rich Campbell: Do you play Immaculate Grid, Keith? If so, thoughts?
Keith Law: I do not, sorry.
John: Is Colson Montgomerys ceiling Seager? To me I see maybe a light Seager. Not as good defensively and not the same power but just solid all around. Agree?
Keith Law: Seager Lite is a good way to put it. I was a little disappointed to see Montgomery look less mobile in the field in the AFL.
George: Yohandy Morales really popped in pro-ball after the draft. Did you see enough for you to bump your evaluation on him?
Keith Law: No, a major college product going off in low A (where he spent the most time) isn’t that meaningful.
Matt: I went to Ocotillo last week on your recommendation. My friends were skeptical when I explained that a baseball analyst I had never met recommended it, but everyone loved it. Just wanted to say thank you.
Keith Law: Awesome – I haven’t been in some time and am glad to hear it lived up to what I wrote several years ago. I always run into this challenge in Arizona, where I want to revisit old favorites but feel compelled to try new places so I can write about them.
Adam D.: Obviously Reggie Crawford (pitching) and Bryce Eldridge (hitting) are far superior on one side of the ball than the other, but do you see any real issues with the Giants approach to at least give them each some chances to show what they can do on the other side? At what point in their development would you say doing so becomes detrimental?
Keith Law: Yes, it risks needless injury (more a concern for Eldridge) and takes time away from developing in the role where they’ll end up.
Jim: Keith, no skin in the game, but a follow-up to your Nolan Jones comments. The Rockies AAA club plays at over 5,000 feet in ABQ (as are several other PCL cities), so wouldn’t the issues regarding breaking balls be at least as relevant, if not more so because of the talent level?
Keith Law: Jones spent 2022 in AAA in Columbus because he was still with the Guardians.
Codey: Do you think Ivan Melendez could grow into an every day 1B or DH at the MLB level? His power seems top of the charts
Keith Law: No, it’s way too power over hit.
Matt: Does it feel like Counsell is the likely guy for Mets skipper?
Keith Law: I don’t know any gossip on this but he’s done a great job in Milwaukee and really grew into the role. I was a big skeptic, and remain so with managers who have zero experience, but he’s a success story.
E: Trey Sweeney upside? Platoon type or something more?
Keith Law: Maybe? Or utility infielder? I’ve seen him a bunch the last two years and I don’t think there’s enough stick there for more.
Sam: If I offered you the choice between winning 54% of your games every season for a decade (and the corresponding chance at winning a WS) or a decade with a guaranteed title and 9 years of 2023 A’s performance, which one would you pick?
Keith Law: Flags fly forever.
mcgiveittome: Is there enough untapped upside for players like Lewis, Julien, Ober, etc., to help the Twins take the next step toward World Series contention? It feels like they’re so close, yet so far.
Keith Law: They’re going to miss Gray’s production if they can’t re-sign him, but I think they’re still contenders. A healthy Lewis is a potential star, now that they’ve fixed all his swing issues. Still some talent marching up that system too.
KC: Gold Glove award is a joke, kinda surprised a DH doesn’t win it someday. Oh forgot that already happened when Palme8ro won it
Keith Law: Yeah I stopped paying attention to it a while ago. They tried to update the criteria but it’s still flawed.
Sedona: I read your piece on Chase Delauter’s swing for the AFL. He describes his swing as a “Scissor Swing”. He has a high contact/hard hit rate, low strike out rate, and seems like he hits the ball oppo on pitches that he’s late on and it still flies w/ strong wrists. Built like a freak athlete. I’ve seen Kyle Tucker comps. Does he have to adjust his swing to succeed?
Keith Law: Lots of guys have scissor swings – that’s not really an issue.
George: What do you think about the player dev and scouting hires in DC? Cause for optimism? Or more of the same from a Rizzo-led FO?
Keith Law: Haas, Ciolek, Dunn are all great hires.
Guest: Hello Mr. Klaw. it’s been awhile since I’ve been able to catch one of your chats, so today’s a good day for me. It’s getting close to end-of-year lists, including music. Any top-of-mind thoughts about which certain albums will land on your upcoming list?
Keith Law: In no particular order – Slowdive, Noname, Arlo Parks, Corinne Bailey Rae, Geese, The Hives, Grian Chatten, Cory Wong, Altin Gun. I probably forgot a few in there.
Codey: Will Jordan Lawler be close to a top 10 prospect for your next rankings? Or did his s.s.s. MLB struggles worry you about his future?
Keith Law: I don’t worry about tiny samples like that.
Heather: When people say of a GM/Head of Baseball Operations, “Oh, that guy’s really good at drafting and developing”, are they praising the wrong person? Chaim Bloom, for instance, was killed for his trades, but lauded for rebuilding the Red Sox’ farm system. But how much did he see of Roman Anthony, Mikey Romero, or even Marcelo Mayer before he drafted them? Do GMs run a team’s draft, or is it the scouting directors/
Keith Law: The GM hires the scouting director, normally. They might see the first-rounders, and have input into that one pick. The GM also sets the overall philosophy, such as determining that the team will use a model to make the picks vs. the scouting department doing so subjectively. But saying such-and-such a GM signed or drafted all those players is nonsense.
AHume92: Barger or Martinez at 3B for Toronto next year? Seems like either plan could easily end badly.
Keith Law: Yes but I’m more hopeful on Orelvis than I was a year ago.
Shawn: I enjoyed your summary of The Zone of Interest by Martin Amis. Had you read any of his earlier books? I liked a few of them a lot, but his style could be exhausting. I haven’t read Zone of Interest yet, but I suspect he would have been more understated with that kind of setting and storyline.
Keith Law: Yes, I read Money some time ago. I liked Zone of Interest more.
Shawn: You always hear about pitchers trying to increase the spin rate on their fastball, but is it possible for a spin rate that’s much lower than the normal range to be especially effective too?
Keith Law: Yes. Spin rate in a vacuum isn’t all that telling – more isn’t necessarily better.
Shawn: What should Bobby Dalbec’s future hold? Is he just a classic AAAA player?
Keith Law: To me, yes.
Santaspirt: I don’t understand… Is Alec Bohm good at defense now and Trea Turner bad? What if defense we’re a zero sum game all this time?
Keith Law: Bohm’s clearly better, and Turner’s defense was already sliding a little bit even last year. I said when they signed him that Stott at SS and Turner at 2B would be a better alignment. I doubt that happens any time soon.
Duff: Are you down on Baty?
Keith Law: No.
Lefty: They might call me Lefty, but I will be voting Republican next Presidential election.
Keith Law: Sure.
Marani: Is Adrian Beltre the only candidate elected to the HOF this winter? Or does Todd Helton sneak his way in as well?
Keith Law: My guess is only Beltre.
Anthony: How would you sort the Rangers OF going forward, with Langford likely ready at some point next year?
Keith Law: Keep all four – him, Taveras, Garcia, Carter – and cycle them through the DH spot to keep everyone fresh.
Anthony: Shouldn’t the Rangers be celebrated for taking a losing team and actually spending money to try and win? I know it all didn’t work out perfect (Degrom), but they now have foundational building blocks to mix with their young, upcoming talent.
Keith Law: Absolutely. You don’t have to win every move – they tried enough that they’re two wins from a pennant. That’s a success.
Jake: Does Bellinger get paid as if this year is who he is?
Keith Law: Yes.
Tommy: What’s your biggest baseball heresy? Mine: Fenway Park is a dump, that should’ve been torn down 20 years ago. I’ve been going there since 1979. It’s grimy, the seats are so tiny that even Keith Law finds them uncomfortable, the clubhouses are supposedly much too cramped — if it wasn’t for that GD Wall, Fenway Park would just be the site of some Boston University dorms.
Keith Law: I don’t love Fenway or Wrigley like many/most fans do. They are very uncomfortable places to watch a game. I understand the nostalgia value and I’m definitely not advocating for premium seats in every ballpark (at taxpayer expense) … but those two aren’t especially high on my list.
Tracy: Movie talk: Oppenheimer might be the best film I’ve seen this century. Have you seen it? Review?
Keith Law: Not yet. Will see it soon now that it’s coming to digital.
Thomas: re: Ng… did any team have a worse run of draft picks in 2021 and 2022 than the Marlins? Watson already got traded and Jacob Berry looks like a complete bust with the 6th pick.
Keith Law: Berry was a huge reach; Watson seemed like a great pick, although I guess the makeup was as bad as or worse than advertised. Either way, though, the scouting director who made those picks wasn’t Ng’s hire.
John Poles: Senator Steve Garvey?
Keith Law: I’d be surprised.
Jud: Keith, I know you appreciate some shoegaze. Check out Film School’s newest album if you haven’t already. Been really enjoying the new Slowdive and FA records.
Keith Law: New name to me – thank you.
Scott: Thoughts on Johan Rojas’s playing ability and future?
Keith Law: Defense and speed are legit. I don’t think he’s ever much with the bat but there is contact skill there to carry him enough so the rest of it plays. It would help if he gained a little strength – that frame isn’t going to allow much, but any increase in contact quality is a big boost to his chances to be a regular or more.
Jon v: Think Manzardo opens 2024 at 1B with big league club with Naylor mostly at DH?
Keith Law: Seems too soon? Maybe June.
PhillieJake: Late to chat sorry if this was asked. Why did The Pirates send Carter Bins to AFL? He’s at best fourth in depth chart. No real future in majors with team.
Keith Law: They were probably required to send a catcher – teams are given certain spots to fill – and chose him.
Sagya Williams: Believer in Wilyer Abreu? Will he stick as an above-average regular?
Keith Law: Don’t see it.
Patrick: As one of the skeptic/rationalist types I follow, can you help explain why so many – yourself included – have taken the maximalist position on transgenderism? There isn’t much in the way of “science” to support it. The science I’ve seen you cite is flimsy at best, and reliant on language games to confuse/distort reality (“sex is not binary” is not true in any sense when every human being on the planet has exactly two parents). Is it just fear of social/professional consequences? And if so, do you see any potential downside to introducing unreality to science and politics? A concern I have is with vaccine advocates promoting an easily disprovable lie, like “trans women are women” – who would trust anything you say on vaccines when you’ve proven yourself to be willing to throw rationalism out the window when it suits your politics?
Keith Law: You kind of took the mask off there at the end. There’s plenty of science demonstrating that sex is not binary – the “two parents” thing has nothing to do with it – and that the transgender brain is real, with some genetic influences. But the important point here is that my advocacy for trans rights comes in the face of a hate-filled, anti-science, highly partisan attempt to demonize trans people, very much in the way that the Nazis othered Jews and Roma people, and very much in the way that Hannah Arendt explained would-be autocrats do as they try to rise to power. Laws that ban gender-affirming care for minors don’t improve any outcomes, and they increase suicides and self-harm. What those laws do do, however, is play to a base of voters that has been primed by a decades-long disinformation war that has told them that tobacco is safe and the climate isn’t changing and vaccines don’t work and the earth is flat and the 2020 election was stolen.
Keith Law: You have a choice: You can stand up for the rights of one of the most vulnerable populations in the country, even if it amounts to no more than opposing laws designed to isolate or harm them, or you can side with the people shouting “groomers” and “pedophiles” and doing everything they can to other trans people. I don’t think this is a very hard choice, especially given all of the evidence from the neuroscience world that the transgender brain is different.
Bartleby: Why can’t people just STFU about sexual issues that have nothing to do with them?
Keith Law: It’s the disinformation war I mentioned. Most of these people never gave a shit about trans folks until the alt-right threw a target on their backs.
Sedona: Have you had a chance to evaluate Yamamoto? Potential #1? Prediction where he does?
Keith Law: He will also be on my free agent rankings.
Heather: Local radio show was talking about the Red Sox’ GM search, got deep into the weeds, and started talking about Billy Beane. One of the radio guys was adamant: Billy Beane should be in the HOF, for the way he changed how front offices approached the game. Should a GM who never got a team to the World Series be in the Hall?
Keith Law: I have no opinion on Beane’s Hall candidacy but I wouldn’t use pennants or WS rings as a strict, binary criterion.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for reading and all of your questions. My free agent rankings will drop right around November 1st, give or take a day or two, and that will probably be my next major piece for the Athletic. Stay tuned for that, some new game reviews, and some great podcast guests coming up as well.
I just want to make sure I understand this fully.
Every house representative votes on speakership. There are 435 representatives, so a majority requires 218 votes.
There are 221 republicans. So, if all the democrats and the independents vote “No” on every speaker, it means a republican would need 218 out of those 221 votes to be elected Speaker?
Do I have all this correct?
Shold the democrats try to get 4 republican votes for Jeffries? That would never happen, right?
I don’t think that would happen today with this GOP. Anyone who voted for Jeffries would be ostracized by the mainstream Republicans, primaried from the right, and likely targeted by death threats.
A lot of that is already happening. Most of the 20 that didn’t vote for Gym are going to be primaried from the right, even in purple districts that would just hand it to the Democrats if the far right opponent won. They’re getting death threats as well, though there would be a lot more. But it would kill their political career and any potential political consultancy career after their term ends.
Because of two vacant seats right now, it’s actually 217.
Thank you for that response. It needed saying but not everyone would have said it.
I really appreciate the way you framed your view on the transgender issue. I am principally supportive of them and their rights, even though I have questions about some things. However, you pointed out what’s important. Having all my questions answered is a lower priority when a vulnerable community is under attack.
@ George and
@ Keith
Yes, I agree – that was an excellent way to frame the issue succinctly, matter-of-factly, without hyperbole, and accurately. I’ll repost it here – because it bears repeating – while truncating the final part, because A) I know nothing about the actual science myself, and B) I don’t want anyone to take issue with the final portion of the remark, because I think the statement stands very well on its own even if there were not the evidence mentioned in the final part:
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Another music rec for you, more on the dream/power end of the fuzz pop spectrum: The Sewing Club. Don’t think they have an album yet, just singles.
The right-wing gotcha trolls are everywhere, aren’t they?
The Red Sox GM position is not an attractive job. Ownership is cutting payroll. The last three GMs, regardless of success, were canned in their fourth season on the job. And, for reasons unexplained, the Red Sox have already committed to Alex Cora as the 2024 manager, regardless of the new GM’s wishes. That’s the same Alex Cora who piloted the team to two consecutive last place finishes, where the team was consistently unprepared, bad on the basepaths, and horrible at fielding. The only thing Alex Cora has done well in the last two years is undermine his former boss.
Nobody of consequence is going to want to be saddled with all that. The Sox will be stuck with a bunch of Bloom 2.0s as their candidate pool. That’ll go over well in New England.
Missed the chat, but with the Rangers in the postseason, Marcus Semien stands out as a potentially interesting “player you were wrong about.” Maybe it’s happened before, but I can’t remember a player crushing both offensive and defensive projections.
To be fair to Klaw, Semien is a ridiculously different player from the one who came up with Chicago and was traded to Oakland. Perhaps it’s anecdotal, but a million stories were written about the work he put in with A’s infield coach Ron Washington to get better on defense. Offensively, notwithstanding any other work he put in, dude got a lot stronger and those doubles started clearing the walls.
Oh yes, this isn’t intended at all to be a dig at Keith. I’m really just curious about how Semien did it, and whether there is anything to learn from this scouting-wise, or whether this is just one of those fluke things that was utterly unpredictable (and incorporating into projections would make them less accurate). Mostly just posing the question as fodder for a future blurb if Keith finds him interesting enough to write about.
It’s possible Semien was included in a prior “guys I was wrong about” column but it got lost in an ESPN purge like some of his other articles. Keith didn’t see this type of player in the Jeff Samardzija trade write-up in 2014, but by the end of 2021 Keith said he was one of the most valuable players in baseball after two very good seasons.
I checked, since I have local files of everything I’ve written, but I never included him in any of those columns on guys I was wrong about – it looks like I never mentioned him in a column/article between 2015 and 2021. The defensive change is well-documented but he also changed his game as a hitter, which I think is worth exploring at some point.
I’ll tell you one guy who apparently still isn’t sold on Semien: A-Rod. I had avoided FOX’s pre- and post-game shows all postseason because he and it are terrible, but I ended up seeing the ALCS Game 5 postgame, in which A-Rod, who hit 696 homers but is obsessed with sacrifice bunts for some reason, said that he would have had Semien bunt the runners over in the bottom of the ninth of Game 5. (Semien came up with no outs and runners on first and second, with the Rangers trailing 5-4. He scorched a line drive that the Astros’ shortstop snagged with a nice play for the first out.)
Another time, A-Rod defended the bunt by saying that Hank Aaron sacrificed 21 times and “if it was good enough for Hank Aaron, it was good enough for me.” He didn’t seem to be aware that 18 of those 21 sacrifices were in Aaron’s first three years before he became, you know, HANK AARON. A-Rod himself had 16 sacrifices before the year 2000, and zero sac bunts from 2000 through 2016. What is he trying to prove with this bunt fetishization?! Then again, this is the same guy who insists that a grand slam is a rally killer.
Small correction…for the Raleigh food recs, there is no r in “Bhavana” and the words are actually reversed from normal. It’s “Brewery Bhavana.”
Also, the food there is very good, but headsup to potential diners that there was quite the to-do about them a few years ago. Alongside Bida Manda, which is another excellent restaurant.
https://carolinas.eater.com/21611662/bida-manda-bhavana-brewery-misconduct-sexual-assault-allegations-van-nolintha-raleigh
Thank you for your trans response Keith. That was really beautifully written. It’s not a question of science at this point, it’s a question of basic human decency. Thank you.
Hey Keith, I love your columns on guys you got wrong but have ever thought about doing guys you were wrong about in terms of who you thought would be stars but didn’t pan out? I could be missing something but I don’t recall reading anything like that from you.
I haven’t, for two main reasons – injuries are a huge factor, and the other stories are kind of bummers. I’m not opposed to the concept but the guys I was wrong about in the other direction are all positive stories and I prefer writing those.
Actually I can think of at least one guy I was too high on and am about 90% sure that there was some chemical enhancement going on before he was drafted. I will probably never know for sure, but even so I would never ‘out’ a player like that just to defend my errant projections.
Just wanted to drop in a quick “fuck you,” to Patrick up there in the chat. What a piece of dogshit.
I don’t understand these ‘just asking questions’ trolls. Honestly, don’t they have something better to do with their time? If not, that says more about them than anyone seeking to live their lives as they desire.
Patrick’s turd take was worth it for the response, capping off another enjoyable chat. Thanks for continuing to do these.
Keeping on with the music recs, I saw Wheel (mentioned in Keith’s most recently music update) open for Vola last month. I’m guessing Vola isn’t a new name to you, Keith, but if so another group putting out some good prog stuff. They recently released a one-off new track called Paper Wolf.
And one more – IIRC you’ve never been into the Deftones sound, so this might not hit the spot for you either, but Chino’s side project Crosses just released a new album, which includes a collab with Robert Smith (Girls Float † Boys Cry).
Patrick outed himself the moment he said that the science is flimsy.
Unless there’s a good trade offer, the Reds will likely give Stephenson another year to click. The Maile signing has nothing to do with Stephenson. Maile is strong defender who caught a lot of Hunter Greene’s and Andrew Abbott’s games, is the power over hit back-up archetype, and bringing him back was a no-brainer with Casali a goner.
The Phillies finished 14 games behind two different teams in their division last year, and they finished 14 games behind one of those teams again this year. I will argue that they are not the best team, regardless of the fact that they outplayed the team that finished ahead of them in two four-game series. And the Diamondbacks are worse than the Phillies, even though they might win the series between the two teams.
So what? Should we cancel all tournaments because one team or individual is probably better than the others?
You were probably the only American who was disappointed by the Miracle on Ice back in 1980.
No, we should just stop expanding the tournaments to the point where they include mediocre teams that could not demonstrate over the course of the long season that they were superior, especially in a sport where the outcome of short series are toss-ups. This is not the NBA, where short-series outcomes are much more predictable. And it’s not the NHL, where there is a long tradition of the playoffs as a second season (as there is in the NBA). When I was a kid, sixteen of 21 NHL teams made the playoffs. For most of baseball’s modern history, only league or division winners got to compete for a World Series title. Even as late as 2011, at worst, the top second-place team got that opportunity. Now third-place teams, and eventually a fourth-place team– in five-team divisions– are getting the opportunity. Why not just throw out the season and have a 30-team tournament?
With respect to the Miracle on Ice, the United States was the host country in 1980 and, by Olympic rules and tradition, received an automatic berth in the ice-hockey field. The United States had also qualified for and competed in ice hockey in every Winter Olympics since their inception, so I’m missing the analogy here as to how Team USA didn’t belong in the field in 1980.
I’m not against upsets. I’m against a team clearly outclassing its opponent over 162 games, by 22 games or 16 games (as the Dodgers did in 2022 and 2023) or by 14 games (as the Braves did in 2022 and 2023), and then having to beat that outclassed team all over again in a short series to earn the right to play for the pennant. I’m against a system that could end up allowing the sixth-best team in the National League to win the pennant for two consecutive years in a sport with a long tradition of reserving the postseason for the teams that performed best during what is still officially called the championship season (a.k.a. the “regular season”). And, for the record, I’m not a fan of the Dodgers (I actually rather actively hate them and usually delight in their annual postseason failures) or the Braves.
I agree on postseason expansion – I didn’t want the sixth team added, or the fifth – but I will not spend energy or time criticizing a team that got in via one of those spots for winning games in October. That’s the nature of the playoffs. We can debate the academic question of who was the best team over the course of the season, but the playoffs, at best, determine who is the best team in October, if that.
An aside about the Phillies – though this was asked in the chat –
What exactly is the rationale for batting Schwarber leadoff???
A friend of mine actually defended the decision (rather passionately – he’s a die-hard Phillies fan), by saying, “He scored 108 runs this year. It’s working. They’re two wins away from the world series.”
“Working” compared to what?
Why would some someone with 47 Homeruns (home runs are more valuable with people on base, right?) bat leadoff if that same someone is incredibly inefficient at scoring a run when he does NOT hit a home run?
If a player hits a homerun, he does not need to be batted in by anyone else. (And as mentioned earlier, it’s better if people are on base when a home run is hit). So, as a curiosity and because I like making statistical spreadsheets, I ranked each team’s leadoff hitter by (PA – HR) / (runs – HR), thus indicating each hitter’s number of non-HR plate appearances needed, on average, to score a run. (I used a team’s aggregate stats for teams that did not have a clear leadoff hitter.)
Schwarber finished 29th, ahead of only the 50-win 585-run-scoring Athletics.
And that’s with some decent hitters batting behind Schwarber in the lineup, and with quite a few of those other teams having abysmal lineups behind their leadoff hitters.
Collectively, we don’t care about regular season excellence. Of the teams with the most regular season wins in each of the four major sports, ( ’06 Cubs/’01 Mariners, ’23 Bruins, ’07 Patriots, ’16 Warriors) none won the championship that year. For the NHL, none of the top three teams with most regular season wins won and two of them lost in the first round of the playoffs. I’m not a particular fan of it either, but it is the way it is.
MLB and the MLB teams will do whatever makes the most profit. (As expected. Why would a team or company do otherwise?)
If the sport thought it would increase revenue and profit by having a 30-team tournament after the 162=game season, it would do so. As a sports fan, I hate it. I think divisions are stupid and arbitrary, and I think it’s ridiculous that a team with a better record can miss the playoffs to a team with a worse record. I’d prefer to see the top 8 teams out of 30 make the playoffs in an 8-team playoff bracket like the one that existed when I first started watching baseball in the 1980s, with reach series being a best-of-7. Or maybe even 9 or 11 (That would help offset some of the lost revenue from cutting out the first couple rounds of the payoffs.)
Also, part of succeeding in the regular season is having a deep pitching staff. In a 3-game series, obviously a team with two ace starting pitchers and 3 mediocre or lousy starting pitchers has a big advantage over a team with 5 solid but non-ace starting pitchers, even if the team with only two good starting pitchers did not have as much success over a 162-game season.
But, as the sport’s revenue and profits skyrocket, so too have player salaries. Everyone involved is happy with the situation and the wealth they gain from the current structure of the sport. They don’t seem to be bothered by the fact that they may have seasons where teams inferior over a lo season advance while 104-win teams get eliminated.
So, as addoeh said, it is what it is.
To be clear, Keith asked in the chat, “Is anyone really going to argue that the Phillies or Rangers or Astros aren’t the best team?” My post was in response to that. Clearly, I will argue that they are not. I’m not criticizing the Phillies for winning in the postseason, Keith. What else are they supposed to do but try to win? I’m criticizing a system that gives them a huge mulligan for a regular season in which they underperformed a team (in 2023) or teams (in 2022) in their division by a lot, in a sport where postseason outcomes are somewhat arbitrary. It’s not their fault that they have taken advantage of this opportunity, but I’m not going to pretend they’re the best team just because they outplayed the Braves over four games after the Braves outplayed them by a wide margin over 162 games.
I also don’t think the Rangers or Astros are the best team, but I don’t have a problem with their inclusion in the postseason. They essentially both won their division. (Tangent: The tiebreaker makes sense for logistical reasons, but it is asinine as a measuring stick. Last year, the Braves won the tiebreaker over the Mets by virtue of winning the season series 10-9– with 10 games played in Atlanta and 9 in New York. With an odd number of games between intradivisional opponents, one team will always have an extra home game. If they have to use a tiebreaker for a division title, why not use all division games? It’s a more meaningful sample size, and it entails equal numbers of home and road games. Last year, the Mets would have won that tiebreaker instead of the Braves. The Astros would have won the division either way this year. The tiebreaker for wild cards is even more half-baked. It’s intradivision record. In other words, they break a tie between teams in different divisions by looking at their records within their own divisions, meaning there are no common opponents in the comparison. It makes no sense.)
Of course, MLB expanded the playoffs because there was money to be made by doing that. And, of course, “it is what it is.” But, as a fan, I can express my disappointment and frustration with it, and lament how it has both diminished the regular season *and* the postseason.
I did understand your point – I was trying, perhaps too bluntly, to make a more general statement about the current system. Sorry if that seemed like a critique of you.
This is a wacky postseason. As a Twins fan, I think the Twins (’87 and ’91) and Dbacks (’01) are the only postseason teams to win the first two at home, drop three straight on the road, then win the last two at home to cap it off. Now the Rangers somehow pulled off the opposite trick – winning a couple on the road, laying an egg at home, only to brush it off and take two more in Houston. It’s the postseason – nutso stuff is gonna happen regardless of format.
(The regular season is too long, but that aint here nor there.)
I like the expanded playoffs–though it’s gone plenty far–giving additional teams/fanbases reasons to pay attention to baseball past July, coupled with the additional drama we all get to watch play out down the stretch. Whether four teams or a dozen teams, the MLB postseason is inherently unfair relative to what’s accomplished during the marathon regular season.
*My* ’87 Twins winning it all off an 85-win season was kinda silly, but it took none of the shine off the trophy. As Keith reminds us, flags (and homemade homer hankies) fly forever.
(Things were looking very dry about a week ago, and now we’ve gotten a Game 7 for each pennant. Hopefully the World Series can yield similarly cool stuff… sign me up for Corbin Carroll WS MVP.)
Hat tip to @addoeh for pointing this out:
Of the teams with the most regular season wins in each of the four major sports, (’06 Cubs/’01 Mariners, ’23 Bruins, ’07 Patriots, ’16 Warriors) none won the championship that year.
That provides important foundational context to these types of discussions/debates – pick a sport, pick an era, pick a postseason format – outcomes are inevitably unpredictable, which is the beauty of competition between sportsmen and ballsmen.
It bothers me less that the team with the best overall record might lose– there are multiple teams that “earn” their right to play for the championship through sustained excellence over six months, not just one– than it does that a team tied for the 12th-best overall record might win. There are 30 teams. A system with only league champions in the postseason would make less sense than when there were 16 teams. But going from 26.7 percent of teams making the postseason, as it was as recently as 2011, to 40 percent as it is as of 2022, waters things down too much and really puts a damper on the regular season, a six-month endeavor.
I also find the retconning kind of comical as I read and hear all kinds of takes explaining how the Diamondbacks really were excellent all along despite none of the people claiming that ever giving them a snowball’s chance in hell of advancing through the playoffs, and despite the fact that their hidden excellence still didn’t prevent them from being outscored for the season and “backing in” to a postseason spot. (No one really “backs in,” but my point is that they essentially nailed down the sixth seed by being the least worst team of the group with the Cubs, Giants and Reds, none of whom could capitalize on the D-backs’ losing their last four games of the season.)
Having said all that, I’m rooting wholeheartedly for Arizona. Better a team that tied with the 12th-best-record wins than that Max Scherzer wins.
“JJ Picollo: Is trading Salvador Perez to the White Sox an actual thing?
Keith Law: Why would the White Sox do that?”
Keith’s question is one we White Sox fans ask a lot. Why would they spend all their money on the bullpen instead of right field or 2nd base? Why did they focus on (and whiff on) Machado, who played two positions they were good at during that time and batted right handed, instead of the left handed mashing right fielder Harper (who they didn’t even offer), when they badly needed a lefty hitting basher and a right fielder? Why would they trade for Sal Perez? Why indeed, but it seems like something they’d do, even though most of us think it’s a dumb idea.
When’s the last time both league championship series went the distance?
Road team wins all seven ALCS games, and the final three critical NLCS games.
Dbacks lose both Gallen starts; win both Pfaadt starts.
Baseball, y’all.
The Rangers & Dbacks lost a combined 394 games the past two seasons.
Predictions seem silly at this point but I’ll say the Texas offense wins it this year. If not, Corbin Carroll is MVP.