Klawchat 4/6/23.

You can read both of my Cactus League dispatches plus my latest draft blog post if you subscribe to The Athletic.

Keith Law: A moment, a love, a dream aloud, a Klawchat.

Guest: Frisco RoughRiders have 8 infielders on the roster for 4 spots (and DH).  I assume that Acuna & Frainyer Chavez will have 2 spots. Does Thomas Saggese get the start and consistent playing time? At what position? How do you see their infield shaking out?
Keith Law: There is no way in hell Saggese gets less than full playing time. He’s a prospect and they see him as a prospect. I wouldn’t sweat positions too much as most teams move their infielders around a ton, both to give those players some added versatility and to try to improve their potential trade value – e.g., you may not think your guy Joey Bagodonuts can play shortstop, but what if the New York Mammoths do?

JT: I asked this of you on your Salas post on FB, but I’m following up now because it’s still interesting. I’d asked whether catchers have different attrition rates, and you correctly pointed out that their development takes longer. I’m curious to follow up: for a Salas or similarly fundamentally sound defensive catchers, do the ability and willingness to receive pitches with good hands increase the floor substantially? I know he’s only 16, but is it already possible to know that he’s at least Luke Maille if he learns nothing more about the sport? It’s curiosity about catching as a distinct player pool driving this.
Keith Law: I think the floor is quite high for Salas if he stays healthy – it is very hard to imagine him failing to become at least a quality backup catcher. This is Reese McGuire’s skill set from his draft year, but with more future power. McGuire wasn’t a good first-round pick but he has played 234 big-league games already through age 28. That’s a floor, mind you, not a projection for Salas.
Keith Law: I think catchers develop more slowly as a class because of the added wear and tear plus the difficulty of learning two jobs. No other fielder has to do as much work during or between games as the catcher does. That doesn’t mean that no catcher will develop as quickly as the best players at other positions. Salas could be in the big leagues before he’s 20, but that wouldn’t change or invalidate the axiom that catchers overall come more slowly.

addoeh: All Marmol should have done is say “We’ll take care of it internally.” with regards to O’Neill. And doubling down was even worse.
Keith Law: I completely agree. You don’t handle that stuff in public – ever. That’s true in just about any business. Handle internal discipline privately.

Isaac: Do you think Ronny Mauricio has an impact on the Mets this season? If so, at what position?
Keith Law: I do not.

JT: For a guy like Berrios who’s cratering now into another season, how do you go about judging what’s wrong and whether continued hope is possible?
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s any easy fix there, or someone would likely have spotted it. The one thing that’s jumped out at me is that his four-seamer was always flat but now it’s so straight you could hang laundry from it. He’s also putting the thing belt-high often, which I would advise that he stop doing. I know this is all very helpful.

Freddie: Should the Reds transition Elly de La cruz to the OF once he’s healthy? Seems like a good fit compared to all the other IF prospects that have
Keith Law: If you really think he can stay at SS, you leave him there. I might try him at third base before sending him to CF, because I think if and when he goes to center he’s never coming back to the infield again.

Colonel Homestar Runner: Draft dodger, eh?  We’ll see if those trees you’re always hugging save you when Gordon Lightfoot’s creeping ’round your back stair!
Keith Law: So funny story – I never entirely got that joke until almost 20 years after I first saw that Homestar sketch when I heard “Sundown” (and learned to play it – it’s four chords) and realized that was a quote from the lyrics. Fun fact – “Sundown” was Lightfoot’s only #1 single here in the U.S., even though he’s far better known for “The Neverending Song about the Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald.”

Billyball: I never seem to read much good on gunner hoglund. The brief stats he’s put up doesn’t scream anything bad. Has his stuff not fully returned? I thought he had a #2/high 3 type of future. Is it performance or merely staying healthy?
Keith Law: Never a #2 – a strong command guy pre-TJ whose stuff hasn’t come all the way back and now projects more like a 4 or a 5.

Guest: What do ypu think about Brody Brecth from U of Iowa? He recently left football to focus on baseball.
Keith Law: 24 walks in 33 IP this year. He throws really hard, but that is not the performance of a top 10 pick.

Freddie: As purely prospects, who would you of had rated higher, Soto or chourio?
Keith Law: I never rated Soto as high as I had Chourio – Soto played about a month or so in low A, got hurt, made my top 100, and then was ineligible a year later because he was already in the majors.
Keith Law: Claiming I would have had Soto higher would be just revising my own history.

KEN: Here in Cleveland, we love the way the guardians have won the past few years, but can they really contend without more pop in the lineup? Maybe even a few bats? Is Valera a realistic option when healthy?  Thanks Keith
Keith Law: I wouldn’t bank on Valera helping the lineup this year – it’s possible, just unlikely, given his contact questions in AAA. And yes, they do need to find some more pop. Maybe Josh Naylor is finally having the breakout year I predicted for him (in 2021).

Athletics fan: Your thoughts on Kyle Muller? Esteury Ruiz?
Keith Law: They’re both in my top 20 A’s prospects ranking.

Orioles GM: You are the Orioles GM.  What trade(s) would you consider?  Front line starter?
Keith Law: In theory, sure, although I’m not sure which front line starter is available right now. I would try to package some of the upper-level bats who are probably superfluous – Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz, possibly even Mountcastle – given who else is coming to try to get the best starter I can get who’s more than a rental. If they could make such a trade now, which is historically rare for this time of year, it could easily add 4-5 wins to their total for the year.

Jason: Do you think Chourio could be called up mid year with a big showing at AA/AAA?
Keith Law: A big showing at AA gets him to AAA by midyear. He’s only 19. I’d be surprised if he debuts this year, especially with all of their other CF.

Twinkie: Jose Salas was a player I thought could be a star a few years back. Now that his brother is getting all the attention, are people sleeping on jose, or did the projections just never materialize?
Keith Law: I don’t think either is accurate – he’s 5th in the Twins’ system right now, not a superstar but a very solid prospect with upside.

Guest: Is PCA’s floor what Almora became?
Keith Law: I would call that a disappointment. Almora’s approach never improved past about AA or so.

Guest: Keith, thanks for all the great work. I followed you to the athletic when you moved.
Keith Law: thank you! I’ve never regretted the switch for a minute.

benjamin: thoughts on the Angels mgmt and their attempts at censorship. if i was Ohtani id run as far away from them as possible
Keith Law: They have a right to say certain people can’t appear on their flagship station, and we can mock them mercilessly for being the only snowflakes in Anaheim. All they did was buy themselves worse publicity than they would have gotten had they just used Sam Blum less without actually banning him from the show.

Guest: Does Jasson make to the Bronx this year?
Keith Law: It would be just for show if he did. I doubt he’s up early enough to make an impact.

Luke: What is your take on Lodeil Chapelli in the White Sox system? Excites me that he is starting in AAA.
Keith Law: He’s not – he’s starting in high-A, on Winston-Salem. He ranked 20th in a weak farm system this winter.

Zac: Can I start believing in Torkelsons exit velo from spring training and the start of the season or SSS?
Keith Law: Still SSS, but I’m optimistic. The three Tigers bats I liked coming into the year are off to promising starts, at least. Shame they won’t prevent many runs…

Michael: With alvarez about to come up, do you think he holds onto the job for good?
Keith Law: I do not.

Michael: Is there a legitimate development purpose for the mets keeping vientos down in AAA, or is it more about roster management? Seems like he more or less is who he is at this point
Keith Law: Not sure where he fits on the roster.

Mike Rizzo, Washington, DC: Is there any conceivable way I pass on Paul Skenes?
Keith Law: Yes. There are two premium college bats in this draft, Crews and Langford.
Keith Law: I don’t understand any ranking of those three guys that claims any one is clearly above or below the other two. Stick ’em in the dice cup and roll ’em.

Tim: Do you think Justin Steele can have a Mark Buehrle type career or is that too optimistic?
Keith Law: I’d take the under on that. Buehrle was a pretty rare bird.

NIck: Do you see Andres Chapparo being anything more than a AAAA player? He seems to be developing more than expected with his bat.
Keith Law: I do not.

Colin: Who’s your favorite offensive prospect that will stick at shortstop but is currently not on the top 100?
Keith Law: Jett Williams.

Matthew: A couple Guardians questions: 1- Any word on which random pitching prospect they magically added 5 mph to since being drafted last year? 2- Aggressive assignment for Leftwich, starting in AA. What should we be looking for early in the year from him?
Keith Law: Leftwich finished last year with 10 starts in high A – I don’t think AA is aggressive for an SEC product who’s 24 this year.

Salty: Do you have any favorite local eats when checking out the Blue Claws, or do you head back home with maybe a stop along the way?
Keith Law: I haven’t been since the pandemic, because they play in Wilmington 2-3 times a year. The place I used to like most in Lakewood closed in 2019.

Brian in NoVA: How much longer should Washington wait before ending the Corbin experiment and cutting him outright? I know they still owe him 60 million or so but he’s unplayable at this point.
Keith Law: Whenever they need the roster spot.

Rob: Is there a Marlins prospect you like that maybe isn’t well known yet? I’ll hang up and listen.
Keith Law: I think if Joe Mack were a Mets prospect he’d be far more well known. As I said, the story goes.

Kerry Wood: The Cubs talk a lot about their “pitching lab” and a couple of their free agent signings said that was a big deal in choosing them. Is that a real thing or just fancy talk for we watch film with you?
Keith Law: Teams do have pitching labs of varying degrees of sophistication. I would like to see the Cubs have some real success stories out of that lab before getting too high on it.

Marc: Who has the higher ceiling, Mike Burrows or Quinn Priester?
Keith Law: Priester.

Dallas: Of the 3, are any of these the Pirates 2B of the future? (Nick G, Rodolfo Castro, Ji-Hwan Bae?)
Keith Law: I hear Bae far more in CF. Could see them pushing Gonzales there to justify the pick.

Bye Bye Balboni: Giancarlo Stanton to Mets for a couple non prospects. Yanks get the contract off the books and Mets offense instantly improved. Who says no?
Keith Law: Why on earth would the Mets do this?

John: Any hope for Ian Anderson? Crazy downfall from what looked to be a solid MOR guy for years to come.
Keith Law: I think he’s like Berrios – I don’t think he’s hopeless, but clearly he needs a significant change to his approach. Anderson always got away with a mediocre breaking ball because its spin-based direction was the opposite of the FB/CH, but that doesn’t work when guys are hitting the fastball this hard.

Chris: If you were in charge of a draft like the mariners have where they have the 6th most money, would you try to buy a top 10 guy down or would you prefer 3 bites at the apple?
Keith Law: Someone they rank as a top 10-15 guy gets to them naturally. Just set up to take that guy if/when it happens.
Keith Law: You don’t want to pass on someone you think is the best player available just to save money for later picks.

Candler: Of all the young Braves starters rotating through the 5 spot, who do you see sticking long term? Shuster, Elder, Dodd, maybe even Soroka?
Keith Law: Shuster’s a starter if healthy. Soroka is too, but he’s never healthy. Elder’s a 6th starter type for me.

Andrew: Has Dylan Crews pretty much locked up 1-1 (absent below slot  etc)?
Keith Law: Absolutely not.

Rahj Da Dodge: What are your impressions on Gleyber Torres’ strong start? Is he finally reaching his peak?
Keith Law: It’s been one week.

SG: I know it’s quite early, but do you think Paul Skenes has a shot to overtake Crews or Langford as the number 1 prospect in the draft?
Keith Law: See above. Any of those three could go 1-1. If I had to bet, because it’s Pittsburgh, I’d bet on a position player, though.

Dave: The new rules seem to have worked exactly as the owners wanted them.  I like all aspects of them but for the limited amount of throw overs to 1st since it drastically changes the game and strategy.  Any chance they change that or do you think we are stuck with it going forward?
Keith Law: I hate the endless throws to first that have polluted the college game like dioxin in the Love Canal.

Frank: Does Henry Davis make it to the Majors this season or is next year more likely?  Do you still believe he stays behind the plate?
Keith Law: This year if healthy, I believe he’s a catcher but not everyone agrees.

Zirinsky: Hi Keith. Thoughts on the impact of the rule changes so far?
Keith Law: It’s been one week.

Mike: as of right now, is it: crews 1, skenes 2, langford 3?
Keith Law: See above.
Keith Law: Langford might be … uh, half the man he used to be, but I don’t think he’s any less of a prospect.

Guest: Any new or classic games, etc. to recommend for a soon to be 8 year old (he didn’t type this btw)? Thanks!
Keith Law: I’m happy to recommend a bunch but it does help to know what he has played and what he likes, so I’m not just saying games you know (e.g., Ticket to Ride is always my first suggestion for that age and new gamers).

Mike: think masyn winn gets the call by June?
Keith Law: I do not.

Mike: can Josh Lowe be an every day regular? How do you evaluate him now?
Keith Law: Still like him a ton, might end up a platoon guy rather than a regular but does have the fielding/athleticism/power to be a regular if he hits LHP enough.

Shawn: Can you tell me anything about Luis Perales in the Boston system?  Just starting to hear about him for the first time.
Keith Law: Very good arm, still a ways off beyond arm strength, not a good delivery for a long-term starter. I believe he’s starting on a loaded low-A Salem roster (Bleis, Romero, Anthony, Coffey).

Nick: Is Clayton Beeter a GUY or do you see him as more of a reliever?
Keith Law: Probably a reliever between health issues and lack of FB quality.

Shawn: How can it be that Cleveland has so much success developing pitchers? I watch my team’s prospects come up and get shelled, but theirs just plug in and get good results, year after year. How can one team be doing something that different on the player development front?
Keith Law: I think there are a lot of ways teams can differentiate themselves on the player development front. Cleveland has identified certain characteristics in pitchers that make them candidates for improved velocity in their system, and they target those guys in the draft & trades.

Alex: It’s early, it’s small sample size, but there’s a real buzz around Josh Lowe in Tampa.  (1) do you buy that he could still be an impact bat and (2) if so is there anything more to glean from his early struggles than “MLB is really hard and sometimes it takes time?”
Keith Law: Players don’t all develop on our timetables. They develop on their own. Giving up on talented players before they’re even 25 is just foolhardy.

Mike: How excited are you to see a stacked wilmington blue rocks lineup this year?
Keith Law: Always nice when the home team is stronger. I should be there for the opener, weather permitting.

Evan: Do you think the padres org will be ranked top 18 or so by end of year? Salas and lesko enough to boost them?
Keith Law: Top 18 is … awfully specific?

Michael: When you talk about a players floor or ceiling, do you consider that in absolute terms (barring a major change in circumstances) or more like X standard deviations from the average possible outcome?
Keith Law: A floor, to me, is “barring injury or 34 felony counts, this is the worst case scenario.”
Keith Law: Ceiling is really “everything goes right.”

ChicagoSteve: Is Mitch Keller ever going to happen? This has really been an amazing five-year odyssey for a once highly regarded SP prospect who has never been derailed by a major injury, but instead by constant tinkering.
Keith Law: Two things. One, I think he’s never going to be more than a fourth starter if he can’t get LHB out consistently, and right now he doesn’t have that weapon. Two, I wonder if we’d all have ranked him lower after his big A-ball year if we’d had more advanced data that showed that the fastball was pretty ordinary for its velo.

Kerry Wood: Is the Padres owner blowing the small market fallacy out of the water or do places like KC, Cleveland, Cinci, etc not actually notice?
Keith Law: Both.
Keith Law: Can’t notice what you refuse to see!

Billy: Can Ryan Noda be an everyday player in Oakland? I wasn’t familiar with him before the As picked him up.
Keith Law: Unlikely. He might play regularly for them, but I interpret “everyday player” as someone who produces enough to play every day for most teams.

Shawn: Does Triston Casas end up looking like Nick Johnson?
Keith Law: More power.

Seth: A question for you about HS baseball in general.  When trying to develop a good player at that level, considering size and growth come into play so much for a 14-17 year old, should hitters just be trying to make solid hard contact while developing sound mechanics know the results will come?  I hear so many parents concerned with results vs. mechanics and fundamentals that I am starting to wonder if I am on the wrong side of the discussion.  Thanks.
Keith Law: Just try to hit the ball hard and don’t get hurt.
Keith Law: We have seen guys get paid more for HR power as teenagers but I think their overall track record isn’t great. (Joey Gallo is a little bit of both – he did show enormous HR power at 17-18, but was also a great athlete who sat 95 mph as a pitcher.)

Sean: Has Jaden Hill recovered his stuff from pre injury?
Keith Law: I have heard no. He wasn’t great in March. Still has some time.

Jon: You worried about the lack of preciptation in this area? We had no snow up here in Lancaster County this winter and now we have a string of eighties days with no rain coming up. I feel this does not bode well.
Keith Law: Half inch of rain coming tonight, and yes, we need it.

Derek: If Skenes maintains the same performance for the rest of the year, would you consider him at 1-1? Or is it just impossible for any breakable pitcher to be preferable to Crews/Langford given how good those guys are?
Keith Law: Personally, I would not take a pitcher at 1-1 with an elite college position player available, and this year there are two of those guys. Skenes looks Gerrit Cole-level good right now, but all pitchers are breakable – even if you think he IS Gerrit Cole, you’ve got two hitters who project to that kind of output as well.

Shawn: Why is the “AAAA player” a thing?  Are there just as many guys who are too good for AA and not good enough for AAA, and we just don’t hear about them?
Keith Law: AAAA player = too good for AAA, not good enough to be more than a bench or up-and-down guy for the majors.

Kevin: Anyone interesting I should try to see in the Florida State League (or whatever it’s called) this year? Thanks for doing the chat!
Keith Law: I don’t have the rosters in front of me (or memorized), sorry.

Jon: What happened to Jackson Ferris? The Cubs drafted him and I thought signed him but he has yet to play.
Keith Law: He just signed last July, out of HS, and none of those kids has played this year yet. The non-AAA teams start tonight.
Keith Law: He’s fine, he pitched in Mesa last month.

Chad: I realize that it has no impact whatsoever on your job, but do you find the Savannah Bananas fun and a way to get the youth excited about baseball? I’m seeing them in June, with my kids, and they’re so pumped for it.
Keith Law: Eh. It’s not exactly baseball, is it? I don’t object to them like some old curmudgeon, but I don’t see the appeal myself.

Freddie: Watched Miguel Bleis’1st preseason game. He really jumped off the screen compared to what I had imagined. Is he star talent type, he’s been getting hype, but I’m surprised he’s not getting more considering his market
Keith Law: It’s superstar upside with swing and miss concerns, which is probably why he’s not getting more hype.

Candler: Michael Harris’ approach at the plate doesn’t seem to be improving much to my untrained eye. Anything to be concerned about, or just young player growing pains?
Keith Law: I’ve had that concern on him since A-ball. Just something he’ll have to work on to maintain or improve on last year.

Pat: How many teams provide nutritionists for their minor leaguers? &/or provide healthy food in the clubhouse? Asking because Jace Jung mentioned yesterday that Detroit did neither of those last year..which seems like criminal negligence to me
Keith Law: I actually thought every team did at least some of that by now.

Chris: Somerset is gonna be a fun team this year – Martian, Pereira, Wells, Sweeney, looking fw to first road trip up here to Portland
Keith Law: Dominguez & Pereira are big draws for me. The others less so.

ML: Keith, what do you think about Vaun Brown? Seems like a “scouting the stat line” guy, but more and more evaluators seems to like him…
Keith Law: I’ve talked to plenty of evaluators, all of whom think he’s a big leaguer but none of whom thought he was more than a solid regular. Older guy whose best tool is his speed but who’s already had issues with both knees.

Rob: Cam Collier is starting with my home team of Daytona in the FSL this year.
Keith Law: And he’ll be 18 all year, I believe.

Mj: Did you watch The Last of Us? If so, thoughts?
Keith Law: Zero interest, sorry.

ML: Do you think a player’s name has an actual impact on how he is viewed by scouts/front offices?  Does a guy names Wilmer Flores suffer  because of the blandness and common nature of his name, in comparison to a guy like Cedanne Rafaela?
Keith Law: I do not. I do think it matters if his name is, say, Gwynn, or Marichal, or Holliday.

Trey: What does Kahlil Watson have to do to make it back to your top100 list in 2024?
Keith Law: Make a LOT more contact, and probably avoid any on-field conflict.

ML: Is DL Hall ever a quality MLB starter?
Keith Law: Has the stuff. Has to throw more strikes. He’s too damn athletic not to figure this out.

Derek: Strasburg vs. Cole vs. Skenes as a college pitching prospect?
Keith Law: I’ll see Skenes later this month, but Strasburg was the best I’ve seen, and was slightly ahead of Cole. Strasburg showed you four pitches and the fastball played. Cole was more three pitches, but he’d get hit on the fastball more (and Savage called it too often).

Tyler: Does anyone currently playing specifically stand out to you as someone has reached their “everything goes right” ceiling?
Keith Law: I think that’s true of a lot of the guys I got wrong over the years, or guys like Arenado and Betts who just blew past even pretty favorable evaluations when young.

JR: If game times stay shorter (fingers crossed) do you see teams moving game start times around, maybe pushing start times back 30 minutes?  And who will be the first owner to gripe about food and beverage sales being down since games tend to be shorter?
Keith Law: Aren’t the start times about selling commercials early in the game?
Keith Law: Manfred claimed yesterday that concession sales aren’t down even with reduced game times. I don’t really care if I get home 20-30 minutes sooner without losing any baseball.

Zihuatanejo: Is it too early to proclaim Miguel Vargas the next Ed Yost?
Keith Law: It is pretty impressive that he’s become this patient (SSS) this quickly.

Chris: Why would the Yanks keep Franchy over Florial?  While theres no evidence Florial can hit, he has speed and defense.  We know for a fact Franchy has none of the three.  Is it simply a matter of him having an option for when Bader comes back?
Keith Law: Honest question – is it likely to matter? If either guy is playing often for you, something has gone seriously awry.

Heather: As a HOF voter, do you think the Baseball Hall of Fame has lost its luster?  It feels like every decent player eventually gets in these days.  The other night, on MLB Network, I actually heard Dan Plesac and the guys beside him start to make a case of John Olerud’s candidacy.
Keith Law: Yes, I think it’s lost its luster for many reasons. The various vets committees letting in guys like Baines and Morris have made it a bit of a farce.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat – thank you all for reading and for all of your questions!