→ July 11, 2019
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Klawchat 7/11/19.

Starting at 1 pm. My ranking of the top 50 prospects in baseball is now up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: I try to hear the music but I’m always losing time. Klawchat.

Greg P: Loved the Mid-Season 50 and I DID read the intro. I already knew you hated my team. Is service time really the only thing keeping Bichette in the minors?
Keith Law: Thank you. I don’t know that for a fact, but I don’t see any good reason he’s not in the majors; he’s better than the team’s current options at SS and 2b.

Trevor: KLaw – Missed the chat 2 weeks ago but wanted to mention the #SmartBaseball move from Michigan’s coach to bat the previous day’s SP 9th as a DH then pinch hit for him with the batter of his choice based on the situation. I don’t ever recall an AL team trying this
Keith Law: I missed that entirely. I like the idea.

barbeach: No question today. Just thank you so much for the chats and the content–so awesome.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. I’m just relieved I got the top 50 out given that my fever hit 101.3 *again* yesterday. (I think it’s gone now.)

Greg P: As others have said before, you are the only reason I keep ESPN+ and if you leave, I leave. So, is Lou Bob (I love that nickname you gave him) going to get to Chicago this season?
Keith Law: Credit to Eric Longenhagen for the nickname. I think he will, although I am not basing that on anything from the team.

Nick: Can Alec Bohm potentially play corner outfield at all?
Keith Law: I highly doubt this.

Dana: Do you think the Yanks should bring up Deivi in September/playoffs and use him out of the bullpen?
Keith Law: I think he could help them, but don’t think that he needs to be recalled this year to keep developing.

Brian: Gurriel Jr. looks real (and even decent in left). Biggio seems to be able to get on base, but strikes out a ton (and can’t play D). What do you make of the young Jays?
Keith Law: Don’t think Biggio is anything … he can walk, but that’s it. Gurriel’s power is out of nowhere (juiced ball?), and he has just average bat speed; he’s killed sliders this year, and I wonder if teams will start pitching him differently since he doesn’t handle velocity well. The young guy you didn’t mention, Vlad Jr., is still going to be a star IMO even with the slower-than-projected start.

Jeff: Do you have a sense of why the Padres haven’t called up Urias yet? Is he still working on things at AAA or are they just waiting to clear roster space (e.g., Kinsler)? Thanks
Keith Law: The only thing I’ve heard, and this was secondhand, was that there were concerns about his swing – he may be too power-happy, and of course AAA/El Paso isn’t exactly the place to un-learn that.

Jeff: Given the Padres current/future middle infield depth, do you think either or both of Abrams and Edwards wind up in center field?
Keith Law: Abrams could. Really depends on how he looks over the next ~year at short. He’s physically able to play it, but also looks like he hasn’t had much coaching there.

David: Could Ke’Bryan Hayes get called up in September or is early next summer more likely? What would you do?
Keith Law: Should be up in September.

Trav: It feels less and less likely each day that we make it through Nov 2020 with our democracy remotely intact. No question, I just want to remind everyone that we’re not powerless until Election Day.
Keith Law: Agreed. Never too early to get involved or make your voice heard.

Andy: The players are in serious trouble in the upcoming CBA. There’s a whole lot of things they should want: Higher minimum salary, sooner free agency, no draft, better minor league pay, more on the revenue split. But they have little to negotiate with. Do they have to agree to a salary cap to get any of those? They’ll obviously punt on the minor leaguers/draft issue to help the current MLBPA members more, but that may not be enough. The only actual threat the players have, to increase their revenue vis a vis the owners, is a strike, which will be tough to gather enough momentum for.
Keith Law: Your last sentence is the key. They can strike. They may need to do so simply to remind owners of their willingness to take collective action for the long-term good of the union even if it hurts them in the short term. And striking for a higher minimum salary and for a greater share of industry revenues to reach players is as good a reason as there will ever be.

Brian in Austin: Keith, has Sam Huff put himself in top 100 consideration with his play this season?
Keith Law: No.

Kevin : You are the Astros GM- trade Tucker for pitching? Is a Tucker- Boyd trade good for both teams?
Keith Law: I think it’s fair.

Key Flaw: After actually seeing Vlad Jr. play third base, it certainly feels like he is a DH (he defense was ugly in the O’s series). With the Jay’s out of contention, it makes sense to keep running him out there. But how long does that last, and is there any chance that he actually improves enough to play 1st base, let alone 3rd base?
Keith Law: I really think his body is going to make him a full-time DH.

addoeh: You’ve talked about both recently. Who has better frozen custard, Culver’s or shake shack? Valdosta had your go to Concrete Mixer order and it was pretty good.
Keith Law: I like Culver’s a lot, but Shake Shack seems to have a better product – I don’t know if they use better inputs, or if their blending/freezing process is faster and produces less overrun.

Todd: Where does Robert Puason fit into Oakland’s prospect rankings right now? And if he develops at a typical pace, how long until we start seeing him in Top 100 discussions?
Keith Law: Eyeballing, I would say in the 6-10 range. He’s a LONG way off from the top 100.

Liam: About where on your top 50 would Carter Kieboom rank if he were eligible?
Keith Law: He is eligible. He just doesn’t have that kind of upside.

Kevin : Liberatore in the rotation for Tampa by June 2020?
Keith Law: He’s in low-A now on a tight innings limit. Think about it: Even if he’s promoted today to high-A, the season ends in less than eight weeks, and he’s not going to double-A until at the absolute earliest next April. There’s just no way this happens.

Jesse B: Are Daniel Lynch and Spencer Howard both still in the 50-60 range? Both have looked good but they’ve both had minor injures. Seems like since they’re both 22, they could move quickly if the injures don’t crop up again.
Keith Law: Lynch would have made it had he come back from this shutdown, but Howard’s issue is his shoulder and he’s been out too long.

Brian: Hey Keith, thanks for the insightful new prospect list this morning. I was a little surprised Heliot Ramos did not make your list (19 years old and performing well in High A). Do you see him as a top 100 prospect at this point? What pd
Keith Law: Probably top 100.

Carl: Is Yordan Alvarez still not a top 100 prospect for you?
Keith Law: He’s ineligible, since he’s in the majors.

Eric: Thanks for the chat, and the top 50 Keith. I know you’ve been a big Isan Diaz fan in the past. What are your thoughts on him after his big season so far? Too much question with the AAA ball to get him in the 50?
Keith Law: It’s the lack of recent performance and then he goes to AAA and hits like this … so is this the real Diaz, the guy I hoped he’d become maybe three years ago when I ranked him pretty highly, or is this a juiced ball mirage? He’d have been in the next 50 guys if I’d ranked 100.

Eric: What are your thoughts on George Valera? Chance for big helium and a spot on the offseason list?
Keith Law: I hear good things but he has barely played around injuries.

Andy: With all the tributes to Jim Bouton, I am reminded that Bowie Kuhn is in the HOF, but Marvin Miller isn’t. That was my biggest takeaway from the book, having an asshole in your corner is really good for the labor side.
Keith Law: Yep. Bowie Kuhn did more to destroy the game of baseball than anybody since Judge Landis. The Hall honoring him is a sick joke.
Keith Law: Oh, and by the way, the BBWAA still hasn’t removed Jim Reeves – who wrote an article just two months ago defending a former player accused of serial sexual assault of a child – from the Spink ballot. What a fucking joke.

John : Are Brady Singer and Daniel Lynch Mlb starters? Add Jackson to make up KC rotation by 2021?
Keith Law: Lynch, if healthy, is a very good starter. Singer still looks like a reliever to me between the low slot and lack of a weapon for LHB. Kowar’s probability is somewhere in between the two. Bubic has a low ceiling but his starter odds are higher than Singer’s for me. Haven’t seen Bowlan here yet.

Rick: Afternoon KLaw, non-prospect question for you. Jake Arrieta seems to be quite the curmudgeon. His willingness to “be a team leader” in Philly (ie throw teammates and coaches under the bus when things don’t go his way while getting batters out at a replacement level clip) hasn’t exactly endeared him to either teammates or fans in the city. My question is was he always like this and just wasn’t held accountable in Chicago because he actually got batters out? His temper tantrum over an equally washed up Todd Frazier this past week was a bad look that didn’t portray either him or the organization in the best light.
Keith Law: I think your assessment is accurate – and I don’t see how MLB can avoid suspending him for threatening Frazier (“I’ll put a dent in his skull”). You can’t say that. You can think it, but MLB has to put the clamp down on public threats.

Pat D: Something that is annoying me mightily right now from the great cesspool that is NYC sports talk radio is the assumption that because Bumgarner was great in the postseason 5-7 years ago, he’ll be great in the postseason now, and for that reason alone, the Yankees should acquire him above anyone else. Is there any way you can even hope to present a counter-argument to someone entrenched with that belief?
Keith Law: No, probably because the basic premise is flawed, and you won’t convince someone one of their core beliefs is wrong.

Liam: What’s wrong with Thor?
Keith Law: Here’s one guess: this year’s super-smooth baseball is killing his slider.

Adam: At this point, would you rank Luciano, Ramos and Bishop ahead of Bart in the Giants farm system?
Keith Law: maybe, yes, no.

MJ: Fantastic work on the list, Keith. Any brief thoughts on Tyler Freeman? Seems to have some of the same plate/OBP skills as Alek Thomas and Nolan Jones, albeit without the athleticism of the former and potential pop of the latter.
Keith Law: He’s more in Thomas’ vein – and he’s pretty small, so his impact is really likely to be limited.
Keith Law: Nice player, though. Probably top 100, not close to this.

Denis: Surprised to see Gavin Lux at #5. If he switched to 2B is he still in the top 10? Also, if you are the Dodgers, who would you keep out of Smith/Ruiz? Does Ruiz still have the higher ceiling?
Keith Law: Ruiz has the higher ceiling but I’d keep Smith because he’s ready now. Not that either is a wrong choice. no reason to bump Lux from SS.

Ridley: Just to expand on Trav’s point, now that the Supreme Court has decided that gerrymandering is beyond their reach, there’s no better time to get involved at the local and state levels to ensure that independent commissions are in place to ensure that neither party abuses redistricting.
Keith Law: Right, because if your state is gerrymandered next time around, it may become de facto permanent.

SGz: What is the rationale for Jesus Luzardo missing the Top 50? Thanks.
Keith Law: What is the rationale for him making it? He’s 21 with a pretty lengthy list of injuries already.

Rick: As a constitutional conservative who didn’t vote in the 2016 presidential election (both candidates made me physically ill) I can’t see myself going to the ballot box in 2020 [again]. Trump is Trump, and the takeaway from the Dem debates so far was: keep southern border open for potential votes and cheap labor, expand healthcare to illegal aliens, pay off existing college debt, offer voting rights to felons and mid-teens. This is supposed to motivate me to vote? Still waiting for the voice of sanity to step up.
Keith Law: If that’s your takeaway from the debates, I think you went into the debates having already decided what you want to hear. A non-vote in 2020 is a vote for Trump. It means you’re fine with a status quo that is imprisoning children, mistreating them, exposing them to trauma, just because they’re brown. It means you’re cool with the world’s largest economy still pretending climate change isn’t real – even though huge portions of our economy and our country will be adversely affected by it. People will die needlessly because of this. It means you’re fine with a government that turns its back on democratic allies to support autocratic governments that assassinate political opponents, including journalists, because it suits short-term political aims. It means you’re fine with the kleptocracy that ignores rampant conflicts of interest, enriching officeholders across the government, because you just want low taxes and a ban on abortion. Yeah, you’re a Trump supporter. You just lack the courage to admit it.

John: Has Seth Beer impressed with his performance so far?
Keith Law: Really needs to show he can hit LHP.

mark: Dinelson Lamet recently returned to the Pads after TJS. What kind of upside does he have… #3 starter?
Keith Law: Two-pitch guy who’ll end up in the pen if that doesn’t change.

Paul: I’m sure some of my fellow Braves fans are bitching about Waters’ omission; already saw one person on Twitter. Not here to do that, but am curious what you think of him? BABIP is absurd (.457) with an alarming K-rate and not many walks. Something he can fix or overcome with the rest of his game? And likelihood of him doing that? Thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: Solid prospect but he’s a corner guy long term. The K rate isn’t alarming on its own, especially since he’s young for AA, but the combination of low walk rates his whole career and rising K rates is concerning. Again, like a lot of guys folks are asking about here, he’s a top 100 type, but this is just a 50, and that means I’m only ranking the best.

Justin: When players makes their major league debut why is the note that the player has been recalled by the team? Shouldn’t that be for players that were demoted and then brought back?
Keith Law: If a player is recalled, then he was demoted when he was optioned in spring training. When a player is recalled, it means he’s already on the 40-man; if he’s already on the 40-man, but was in the minors, then he was in major league spring training (the entire 40-man comes) and was sent to the minors on optional assignment before the spring ended. If the player isn’t on the 40-man, his contract is “purchased,” which means he’s added to the 40-man at the time he’s brought to the majors.

romorr: Hall and Rodriguez both have a reliever chance, Halls BB% is going the wrong way, and Rodriguez has funk in the delivery. But if you had to pick to stick in the rotation, would it be Rodriguez still?
Keith Law: It would not, and I think my ranking of them today and in the winter makes that clear.

addoeh: Two prospects from Wisconsin (Kelenic and Lux) in your top 8 and one from Chicago (Thomas) at 45 and I may have missed others from the Midwest. Along with Priester just being drafted in the 1st round, will the fear of prospects from cold states start to subside?
Keith Law: I don’t think it will, but I’m sort of okay with that. Some is just structural: we get fewer looks at high school players in cold climates. It’s also a reason for MLB to do more (and they’re doing some) to give those players chances to play in front of scouts against better competition.

Liam: My apologies if there is an obvious example I’m missing but have we ever seen an administration so blatantly go against a supreme court ruling as the current admin plans re: citizenship/census question?
Keith Law: Did Nixon? This is way out of my area.
Keith Law: Again, that’s another thing that anyone who abstains in 2020 is supporting: An overt rejection of the rule of law that has defined our system of government for nearly 250 years. You can even hate Trump’s opponent, but if you don’t vote him and his swamp dragons out, then you’re saying you are tacitly okay with what he’s doing.

Todd: With the news that Bubba Starling is getting called up to KC, do you think there’s even the tiniest chance he’ll spend time as a true big league regular?
Keith Law: No.

Ben: Why would anyone listen to sports talk radio? Have you ever encountered a decent STR station throughout your many travels across the country?
Keith Law: I don’t listen to terrestrial radio, ever, so I have no answer to that. I appear on a few sports radio programs and I know they treat me well by asking good questions.

Ron: I was surprised that Lewis even made your top 50 beings his first half was poor and his mechanics changed. Although he has started to heat up. Did he make any changes that you know of back to how he was before? Thanks!
Keith Law: I addressed that in the piece.

SGz: You had Luzardo at 31 on pre season rankings and he’s been very good when playing this year. Health was the knock in the pre season, so it seems like a reasonable question to ask why he was omitted.
Keith Law: Health was the knock and he’s been banged up again.

Joe: Justus Sheffield has put up good numbers after being sent to AA. Still the same guy he was before the season started in your mind?
Keith Law: I want to know why his velocity dropped off this year.

John: One concern about Dustin May – even to those who like him – is the results haven’t always matched the stuff. How legit is that concern for you?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s accurate. He’s been outstanding this year.

mike sixel: Royce Lewis…..is his fall mostly that your fears of him at SS are confirmed? A year of not hitting in A+? Clearly his change to his hitting is not going well. Did he do that on his own? Thanks,
Keith Law: Much more about not hitting/visible changes to his mechanics. I have never bought into the claims that he’ll stay at short: He’s not good there, and he could be very good in CF, maybe a 70 or better defender there. Most organizations would probably have moved him but the Twins have an 80 defender in center in the majors, so that may be one reason why they haven’t.

Devin: Thoughts on Kristian Robinson? Candidate to crack your top 100 next year?
Keith Law: He was on my top 100 in the winter, so yes.

Tmh: What is Rutchman”s ETA?
Keith Law: I would say end of 2020 if they want.

romorr: Having a hard time getting a read on if Keegan Akin is ready for the majors. Orioles are starting guys they pick up off waivers like crazy, so it seems Akin needs to work on some things before a promotion.
Keith Law: I agree that seems to be the implication, although I’m not sure what they think is going to change in his profile, either.

John: Alexander Canario just hit his 8th hr in under 80 abs. Will he be a legit prospect for the org?
Keith Law: He is one.
Keith Law: He’s a legit prospect, I mean.

Rick Sanchez : Worried about Mize at all?
Keith Law: Not yet.
Keith Law: yeah I just triple-checked, the MLB.com story says there were no setbacks last night. After I sent that response I thought I might have missed something.

OC Joe: Newcomb and Touki have thrived in relief this season. With all of the starting pitching depth in the high minors for Atlanta, should they stay in the pen?
Keith Law: I think that’s Newcomb’s role, but Touki still has starter potential.

Rick: In regard to Liam’s comment on the Supreme Court this pains me as a holder of a BA and Master’s in History. Did your school system teach you literally NO AMERICAN HISTORY? Andrew Jackson’s response to the court’s ruling in Worcester v. Georgia: “Justice Marshall has made his decision now let him go enforce it.” Christ almighty I understand that you may have serious issues with this White House and it’s actions but try not to be completely ignorant on history when making “all encompassing” claims. When Trump says that then we can call it the greatest attack on the Supreme Court in our history. Until then its not on the medal stand.
Keith Law: I admit to having forgotten that entire case until I saw your quote from Jackson (it’s a good line by a terrible person), probably because it happened 140 years before I was born.

Matt M: Would Nico Hoerner crack your top 100?
Keith Law: Probably. A lot of people asking why he’s not on the top 50 and … again, why would he be? He has barely played this year due to injury and it’s not like he’s a huge tools guy: His value is in the expectation that he’s going to hit.

Valentin: Hi Keith. big fan from Bern, Switzerland. have you ever heard of Prospects coming from Switzerland? Kind regards
Keith Law: The Swiss have fielded teams in youth tournaments in Europe for a while, but I’ve never heard of a player signing from there. The most likely places for teams to find European prospects right now are Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy, i think.

Tim: Vavra has been outstanding this season. Has he passed Vilade for you yet?
Keith Law: Vavra is two years older than Vilade (who is performing) and a level below. Both are prospects, but there’s not a strong argument right now for Vavra over Vilade – and Vavra is yet another college D1 product who should NOT be in low-A.

Jason: Harris or Warren?
Keith Law: I was about to ask what team. I might not be fully recovered yet.

John: Were you a big mixtape guy? I don’t know if you ever listen to my favorite local Seattle station (KEXP) or not, but they’re running a cool little mixtape contest. Given your affinity for music and playlists, seems like something you could have some fun with.
Keith Law: A little bit, yes – I would nearly always choose to listen to my own tapes and later CDs rather than listen to full albums or put on the radio.

addoeh: Have you ever heard of a player have a similar journey to the majors as Robel Garcia’s?
Keith Law: No, and I mean that literally: I don’t know of another player who went from Italy’s semipro league to the majors. It is movie material if he’s any good, maybe even if he’s not. Those are my people but the quality of baseball in Italy is not good.

Johnny O: Yankees seem to develop mid draft and int’l players well (#woo) but their first round picks have been questionable among the consensus and also aren’t panning out (Judge as the outlier in more ways than one). Volpe probably a reach, Siegler, Schmidt, Rutherford, Holder, Kaprielian, Clarkin. If Yanks are good at development, why are the missing on so many 1st round picks?
Keith Law: They are good at development, and they’ve had some very successful draft picks after the first round. Perhaps their process up top is different? Many teams approach their first picks a bit differently, and the Yankees often draft late in the round, where the types of high-upside players they value (they’re not looking for soft regulars – they want stars, or guys they think they can trade for stars) are either gone or carry some high risk.

Jeff: Stranger Things S3 thoughts?
Keith Law: Never seen the show. I need to finish Good Omens this weekend.
Keith Law: Well I never even got to announce this on Twitter – sorry, I feel bad about that – but I jumped right into it and forgot to post the tweet. Thanks to you diehards who saw this on my Facebook page or just checked the dish since it’s Thursday! I’m going to wrap this up before I pass out. I believe I will be back to chat again the next two Thursdays before taking a week off (Gen Con!). Enjoy your weekends and the return of baseball tonight.

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→ July 8, 2019
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The Periodic Table.

Primo Levi’s short story novel The Periodic Table is a strange, interesting, maybe convoluted book, with each chapter built around a single chemical element that usually figures into the story, with Levi’s life from childhood through the Holocaust and afterwards as the book’s through-line. It made the Guardian‘s list of the top 100 novels ever written, and in 2006 the Royal Institution of Great Britain named it the best science book ever written, for which it beat out The Selfish Gene, Double Helix, and Gödel, Escher, Bach, among other titles. It’s also an arduous read, not for the content around Levi’s time in Auschwitz but for his disconnected writing style and prose that is often a difficult slog. I’m also fairly certain there’s some metaphor in here I missed, perhaps because I found his prose so prolix that I couldn’t read the book on two levels at the same time.

The Periodic Table is an autobiographical collection for Levi, a professional chemist who survived World War II in part due to his chemistry skills (and due to some good fortune, like falling ill before the death march out of Auschwitz that killed many surviving prisoners of the Nazis). Two of the stories (“Lead” and “Mercury”) are straight fiction, but the remainder tell some stories from Levi’s life before and during the war, although a few others read like fables rather than renderings of real life.

The two fictional tales and some of the fabulist stories, like “Arsenic,” in which the narrator is asked to examine a sample of sugar that might be tainted, are much easier to follow in prose and story – Levi lets loose, so to speak, and writes more like a fiction writer than a scientist. Some of the earliest stories about his life prior to the Fascist takeover of Italy and his eventual imprisonment are among the slowest to read, with the elements in question also less directly related to the actual story … but when the Nazis arrive, Levi becomes a bit of a different writer too, working with the natural tension that comes from having a murderous regime in charge, with its agents unpredictable and violent. The stark “Cerium,” named for a rare earth element about which Levi knows little other than its use in the flints found in lighters, is set inside the Lager (Auschwitz), where he and a comrade Alberto steal supplies of cerium so they can trade them for rations to survive, making the grim calculus of X flints for Y more days of life.

Levi survives the war, of course, while many of his friends and colleagues did not. The chapters after the liberation skip over some of his worst experiences in the hands of the Russians, but detail his attempts to reintegrate into the greater science world. “Vanadium” has Levi trying to locate an old nemesis decades after their last meeting. “Silver” is a bit of a science mystery, as Levi has to figure out why certain photographic plates are arriving with flaws from their factory. The final story, “Carbon,” is the most literary of all, a fanciful, beautiful meditation on the arc of a carbon atom over the millennia, going from somewhere in rock and earth to forming part of an actual life and back again, a testament to the impermanence of our existence and the survival of the building blocks of the universe beyond ourselves. But I exited the book with the sense that I didn’t fully appreciate what Levi tried to express; it could be the translation, of course, but I think Levi was such an erudite and precise writer that he often sacrificed clarity to find just the right word or phrase, which meant I spent more time trying to follow the literal plot when there was probably a greater layer of meaning I missed.

Next up: Still reading John Berger’s G..

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→ July 7, 2019
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On Spice.

I’m a longtime customer of Penzeys Spices, a massive mail-order operation that consistently delivers some of the highest-quality spices and dried herbs I’ve found anywhere. They offer some hard-to-find options, and sell just about everything in whole or ground form; I prefer to grind my own, so I buy many things (nutmeg, cloves, allspice, black pepper) whole from them, getting enough to last years. They also sell my favorite Dutch-processed cocoa, and the cost per ounce is more than competitive. It doesn’t hurt that the company is unabashedly progressive; their email newsletters have taken on a strident anti-Trump tone, especially when the issue at hand is human rights.

Caitlin PenzeyMoog is part of the family behind the company, and would help bottle or bag spices when she was a kid, although she’s since moved on to a career in writing – she’s an editor for the AV Club. Her first book, however, brings her back to her roots (and rhizomes): On Spice, a breezy, highly informative, yet still entertaining compendium of the best-known spices in your kitchen, as well as some lesser-known ones, and herbs, and alliums, and capsicums, and even salt.

On Spice is loosely organized by the flavoring agent she’s discussing, with each chapter or sub chapter telling you where the spice/herb/whatever comes from, and how it’s used, and perhaps notes on varieties or suggestions on storage or how to buy it. Her approach is evidence-based, even though so much of what she describes appears to come from her personal experience – and that is what makes the book so enjoyable to read. She has stories from three generations of Penzeys; her grandparents, who owned a store called The Spice House that inspired her parents to start the mail-order Penzeys business, appear frequently as side characters.

There’s also some actual, functional kitchen wisdom in the book, including a few things I didn’t know or simply never considered. The book itself came out of a piece PenzeyMoog wrote in April 2017 for The Takeout called “Salt Grinders are Bullshit,” which gets expanded within On Spice‘s chapter on salt. (The short version: We grind many spices to crack open a protective exterior shell and expose volatile, essential oils in the interior that provide flavor and aroma. Salt is a rock. If you grind it, it’s just smaller rocks.) I’ve been putting used vanilla beans in my giant sugar container for probably 15 years now, and I know it’s made all of my baked goods better; she explains the how and why – and also goes into why vanilla is so expensive. Why do we put bay leaves in stocks and soups, and why do we have to take them out before serving? How do you know if the saffron you’re buying is the real thing? You’ve probably never had true cinnamon; the spice we call cinnamon in the United States is nearly always cassia, a more strongly-flavored, and less expensive spice derived from the bark of a related tree. Real Ceylon cinnamon may actually not taste enough like cinnamon for you if you’re used to cassia.

There’s a ton of useful information in here if you’re cowed by the variety of spices available to you, whether it’s the spice aisle at your local supermarket (some of which may be quite stale), the bulk aisle at Whole Foods (better for buying small amounts of spices), or mail-order companies. PenzeyMoog explains the meaning of terms for spice blends, including za’atar, ras-el-hanout, harissa, garam masala, and curry. There are even some unrelated tangents in sidebars and footnotes, my favorite of which informed me that Angostura bitters (a nonpotable bitters that is an essential ingredient in an old fashioned) is named for the village where it was invented, but doesn’t contain any of the bark of the angostura tree.

PenzeyMoog’s writing style is fun and accessible, even when she veers off into slightly nerdier territory, explaining some of the science behind spices/herbs, or going into how to get the scent of garlic off your hands after you’ve handled it. (Those stainless steel things people keep by their sinks? Useless.) The stories from her grandparents’ shop keep the book light and easy to read, and she has the right balance of detail and brevity. I’ve been cooking and buying spices from Penzey’s for a long time, and I still learned quite a bit from it. On Spice even concludes with recipes for spice blends, dishes, and beverages if you’re looking for inspiration, although I got more than enough value from the text proper.

Next up: John Berger’s Booker Prize-winning novel G..

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→ July 6, 2019
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Stick to baseball, 7/6/19.

My one ESPN+ post this week looked at a few of the top names in the July 2nd market, including Jasson Dominguez (Yankees) and Robert Puason (A’s). I also co-hosted the Baseball Tonight podcast twice this week, on Monday with guests Eric Karabell and Eric Longenhagen, and on Tuesday with guests Dr. Meredith Wills and Sarah Langs.

My latest board game review for Paste covers Bosk, a beautiful game that unfortunately is very slow to play, with needlessly complicated scoring.

You can get more of my rants and raves – mostly rants – if you sign up for my free email newsletter, which appears two to four times a month, or whenever my spirit guide tells me what to say.

I’ll be appearing in Hudson, Ohio, at the Hudson Library and Historical Society this Monday evening, July 8th, at 7 pm, talking about baseball and other topics, then signing copies of Smart Baseball. I’ll also be at the Futures Game at Jacobs Field (yes, I know, I’m still calling it the Jake) on Sunday evening, and will tweet about a meetup with fans before first pitch.

And now, the links…

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→ July 3, 2019
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Music update, June 2019.

Solid month in June for new music from some old favorites, plus three singles here from albums released before June that I’ve especially enjoyed (whenyoung, YONAKA, the Amazons). The first song here gets the closest thing I’ve done to a full album review in many years, but it deserved the time. As always, if you can’t see the Spotify widget below you can access the playlist here.

black midi – Reggae. black midi are the critical flavor of the month after their debut album, Schlagenheim, appeared in June, to effusive acclaim … and it’s true, the album is unlike anything I’ve ever heard before. It is dense, intellectual, and challenging, often asking you to rethink the basic tenets of melody and rhythm that have been part of rock music since its inception. It’s also pretentious and at multiple points seems to dare you to skip to the next song, especially with Geordie Greep’s weird intonations and sudden dives into extreme-metal screaming. The album doesn’t include their strong lead-up singles “Talking Heads” or “Crow’s Perch,” which would actually be its most accessible songs if they’d made the record. “Reggae” was my compromise choice for the playlist, because it shows off their tonal oddities and still adheres a little to some rock conventions. The closer “Ducter” has some of the album’s highest points, as does the eight-minute “Western,” but they are endurance tests as well. “Near DT, MI” is a two-minute burst of ideas, but you have to get past Greep screaming at you – and his lyrics typically make little sense. “Speedway” could be a better introduction to what black midi, named after an obscure form of music that can only be played by computers because there are so many notes that sheet music for the songs would appear smudged with black ink, are trying to express through dissonant chords and polyrhythmic drumming. I don’t think it’s my favorite album of 2019, but it is the most interesting by far.

Sløtface – Telepathetic. These Norwegian punk-popsters are back with yet another frenetic, extremely catchy song with quirky lyrics.

YONAKA – Rockstar. YONAKA’s debut full-length Don’t Wait ‘Til Tomorrow is full of catchy songs with smart lyrics about toxic masculinity and modern culture, but this is a diversion, a lighter song with great hooks.

whenyoung – A Labour of Love. The Irish trio whenyoung’s debut album Reasons to Dream is probably my favorite album of the year. I can’t escape the automatic comparison in my head to the first Cranberries album – Aoife Power’s accent evokes Dolores O’Riordan – but there’s more depth here, including tempo shifts and rapid jumps from low to high as you’ll find in this song.

Phantogram – Into Happiness. This is the first Phantogram song I’ve liked where Josh Carter sings; any other song by them that I’ve ever included on a playlist had Sarah Barthel singing alone. I assume this is a precursor to a new album, which would be their first since 2016.

The Regrettes – I Dare You. Critics seem to tag The Regrettes, led by 18-year-old singer/guitarist Lydia Night, as a punk band, but this song could just as easily have come from The Strokes’ catalog.

Metronomy – Salted Caramel Ice Cream. So I thought this was a different band, then pulled up the song on Spotify and realized I had the wrong group but really liked the track. It’s kind of wonderfully silly, and the electronic trappings mask the fact that it’s a basic 12-bar blues pattern.

Temples – Hot Motion. Temples has made my year-end top 100s twice before, with 2013’s “Colours to Life” and 2017’s “Certainty,” although if you know anything by them it’s probably their first hit, “Shelter Song.” The sound here is similarly retro, with a strong dose of psychedelia, with a jangly guitar riff driving the song.

Belle & Sebastian – Sister Buddha. This is the first single from B&S’s upcoming soundtrack to the film Days of the Bagnold Summer, a comedy due out in September from actor Simon Bird.

Floating Points – LesAlpx. Floating Points is neuroscientist and electronic musician Sam Shepherd, whose 2015 album Elaenia was a masterful work of experimental, sparse electronica. This new single seems more accessible and more in line with current trends in EDM, but it’s no less compelling.

Goodie Mob feat. Organized Noise – No Rain No Rainbow. Goodie Mob aren’t just founders of the Dirty South scene, they made the term mainstream in their 1995 song of that name. They’ve only released one album in the 15 years since Cee-Lo first departed the group (he returned in 2011), and this single appeared without any announcement of a forthcoming record. It’s pretty strong for a group that’s barely put out any music in two decades, although I can’t include them without at least acknowledging Cee-Lo’s problematic history: a woman accused him of slipping a drug into her drink and raping her, which led to him pleading no contest to charges of supplying her with ecstasy (but no charges for rape).

Spoon – No Bullets Spent. A solid album track from Spoon from their upcoming Everything Hits at Once: The Best of Spoon.

The Wants – Clearly a Crisis. A new Brooklyn alternative-rock trio, the Wants deliver a funk-tinged slice of post-punk on their newest single, like something captured in the fleeting moments before post-punk decayed fully into new wave.

LIFE – Hollow Thing. We’re really just calling everyone a punk band now, aren’t we? There’s a punk influence here, but this Hull-based quartet, who toured with actual punk band IDLES, are definitely more in the “snotty English rock band” vein – and I mean that in the nicest possible way.

Thrice – A Better Bridge. Thrice’s A Deeper Wells EP includes cuts from the Palms sessions that didn’t make the album, but if anything I think I like several tracks from the EP more than the songs that likely took their place.

The Amazons – Dark Visions. Future Dust, the Amazons’ second full-length album, dropped in May, and it’s a big move forward from their debut, as the great guitar work from their 2017 single “Black Magic” is all over this new record.

Lightning Born – Renegade. Lightning Born features Corrosion of Conformity bassist Mike Dean, but this is more vocalist Brenna Leath and guitarist Erik Sugg’s show, with a clear ’70s classic metal influence all over this two-and-a-half minute track.

Pallbearer – Atlantis. American doom stalwarts Pallbearer haven’t announced plans for a new album yet, but they released this one-off track as part of the Sub Pop Singles series.

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→ July 2, 2019
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Claim.

Claim is a 2017 trick-taking game from designer Scott Almes, whose best-known titles are the Tiny Epic series (such as Tiny Epic Galaxies and Tiny Epic Zombies). Claim pits two players against each other in a two-phase game where the first phase allows players to battle to build their hands for the second phase, where the more traditional trick-taking mechanic kicks in, but is altered by the five factions (suits) in the game that have unique powers.

The Claim deck has 52 cards, and you’ll use half the deck in each phase. Each player starts the game with a hand of 13 cards, and in phase one, the top card in the deck is flipped over for the two players to try to win by playing the highest card. The Leader – the start player, or whoever won the last trick – plays first, and the second player usually has to follow suit; the higher card wins. In most cases, the cards used to bid are discarded, the winning player gets the face-up card from the deck, and the losing player gets the top card of the deck as a consolation prize – which, of course, can be better than the card the winning player got.

Phase one continues until the players have used their entire hands, by which point each player has a new deck of 13 cards to form their hands for phase two. Players then proceed to play another round of 13 tricks, this time with the winning player usually taking both cards. At the end of the game, players will count up how many cards they’ve won in each of the five factions; a majority of cards wins that faction, and with five factions you’ll usually have one player winning three or even four to win the game. Ties are broken by whoever has the higher-valued card in the faction.

The big catch is that the factions have different powers that can apply in phase one, phase two, or both. The base game comes with five factions – goblins, knights, dwarves, undead, and doppelgangers. A knight automatically trumps a goblin, regardless of numerical value, although you must still follow suit. You can play any doppelganger without following suit, and it becomes the suit of whatever your opponent played. (If you lead with a doppelganger, that is the suit for that trick.) In phase one, the player who wins the trick gets to keep any undead cards played by the two players and put them in their scoring pile for the end of the game. In phase two, the player who loses the trick gets to take any dwarf cards played in that trick – so, yes, you can lose the trick but still take both cards. (For example, I lead and play a Dwarf card with value 9, the maximum. You follow suit, playing a Dwarf 6. I win the trick … but you get both of the cards.) Only goblins have no special power.

The factions themselves are fun; each one asks you to think a little differently about how to approach it, and the hands you get in each round will require you to come up with different strategies. The one big negative in Claim is that the first round involves so much randomness – your starting hands are random, of course, but the player who loses each trick gets a random card from the top of the deck and can easily end up with the superior card. You could lose all of the tricks in phase one and still get a better hand in phase two. It’s not really a flaw, but a different kind of game, where you know you can play pretty well and still get beaten by the deck.

I picked this up at Origins, and since I bought the game, I got a bonus faction pack as well – ghosts, where you can choose instead to keep the ghost card you played rather than the card you’d normally get during Phase One. You can replace the dwarves, undead, or doppelgangers with ghosts in the original Claim game. There’s a separate, standalone game, Claim 2, with five new factions, and you can mix and match the factions from both games in certain combinations, so there’s fairly high replay value here if you get tired of the base game. It’s a solid filler, nicely portable (the whole game is the deck), quick to play, although I think there are better trick-taking games out there, like Fox in the Forest.

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→ July 1, 2019
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The Woman in the Dunes.

I’d never heard of The Woman in the Dunes, the 1962 novel by Japanese author Kobo Abe, before literature professor Daniel Burt included it in the expanded second edition of his book The Novel 100, which ranked the 125 greatest novels of all time. This slim, bleak, almost dystopian novel draws on the existentialist traditions of Camus and Kafka, thoroughly dehumanizing its main characters, and pushes its protagonist into a philosophical dilemma that causes him to question the meaning of his life.

The book opens by telling us that a man has been declared dead after going missing seven years earlier, so we know going into the novel at least some of how it ends. The man, Niki Jumpei, is an amateur entomologist, and arrives at a town with interesting specimens, only to find he needs to stay the night. The town is slowly losing ground to endlessly advancing sand dunes, and the home of the woman who hosts him is on the front line of the battle, so that she must work daily to clear some of the sand so that the entire village isn’t lost. The next morning, the man finds that the rope ladder he used to descend into the pit of the house is gone, and within a few days realizes that he’s a prisoner of the village, forced to work on the Sisyphean task of shoveling back the sand with the woman. He rages against her and his captors, and pleads with them, and attempts to bargain with them. He tries to escape once and fails. When the story ends, he’s on the verge of escaping again … but chooses to go back.

Abe rarely refers to Jumpei by name, and never names the woman; their identities are immaterial to their function in the story. The man, as Abe calls him, could be any man, feeling alienated from everything about his life – from other people, from his job, from his community – in an increasingly isolating, urbanized world. I think you can read this novel in multiple ways, but I couldn’t get away from the idea that the sand was time – like sands through the hourglass – and that the villagers’ struggle against it is man’s attempts to deny his own mortality. It’s replayed through the man’s own reactions to his understanding that he’s a hostage with no hope of rescue; even though the book predates Kübler-Ross’ five stages, the man goes through at least four of them once he realizes he’s trapped. While neither he nor the woman fully lose their humanity, Abe writes of them in a disconnected, impersonal way, and he does have them devolve in some ways, like sex, that emphasize our animal nature.

There’s another interpretation that’s a bit less grim, that the man’s decision at the end not to flee when he has the chance is a sign that he’s accepted reality and, given back some agency over his own life, is making a choice on his own terms. It’s a kind of enlightenment that I might associate with Buddhism or even some new age spiritualism, although I couldn’t get to the point where I’d view the man’s journey through the book as any sort of positive.

Abe’s style absolutely presages later Japanese authors, notably Haruki Murakami, whose prose and themes seem to be direct descendants of Abe’s work here. There’s no magical realism here, unless you consider some of the sand stuff to be such; I never could get a reasonable picture in my head of what was happening or what the woman’s house looked like. It probably doesn’t matter, since the point is that the man is trapped on one side by other people and on the other side by an inanimate force that will simply keep on coming and eventually kill him – and lots of other people – unless he starts to help the woman work to hold it back. Abe’s prose is brisk and sparse, presumably influenced by the existentialist masters in that regard as well, but there are passages where I could see a direct influence on Murakami (including the latter’s particular focus on cooking), especially in the dialogue. As bleak as The Woman in the Dunes is, it’s actually a fast read; Abe wastes little time on frivolities and keeps to the plot. I’m not sure why Burt included it in the top 125, but I wonder if it was more for its influence on modern Japanese literature than its own merits.

Next up: I just finished Caitlin PenzeyMoog’s On Spice this morning – and yes, she’s part of the Penzey’s Spices family, although she now works for The AV Club.

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→ June 29, 2019
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Stick to baseball, 6/29/19.

I had two ESPN+ pieces this week, my annual look at the top 25 players under 25 (which has an error in it around German Marquez’s contract status, sorry) and a scouting blog post on Grayson Rodriguez, Deivi Garcia, Alec Bohm and more. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

This piece went up a little while ago but I waited to post it until some small editing mistakes were corrected: I listed eight of my favorite noir and neo-noir films for Caavo and my friend Desi Jedeikin.

I’ll be at the MLB Futures Game in Cleveland on July 7th, and I’m staying in the area Monday night to give a talk and sign books at the Hudson Library and Historical Society at 7 pm. I hope to see many of you there.

I’ll send out the next copy of my free email newsletter this weekend, so feel free to sign up for more of my words.

And now, the links…

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→ June 28, 2019
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Century Eastern Wonders.

Emerson Matsuuchi’s Century Spice Road was a modest hit in 2017 that earned a lot of comparisons to Splendor, although it gave players more of an active role in trading the goods they were collecting before they cashed them in for points tokens. It’s the first game of what is now a completed trilogy with this summer’s release of Century A New World, three games that can be played alone or in any combination of two or even all three, each of which shares a core mechanic (you have four goods of increasing value, and will trade them up so you can collect certain combinations for points on objective cards) but approaches it in a unique way. Spice Road is a card game that focuses on hand management; A New World, which I’ll review for Paste next month, is a worker placement game a bit similar to Stone Age. The second game, Century Eastern Wonders, has players moving around a map, with a bit of pick up-and-delivery to it, but the heart of the game is route planning, as the board varies in each game and you will have to figure out the most efficient way(s) to get around the various tiles to get the cubes you need so you can score.

Once again, we have four goods, in the same four colors – yellow is the least valuable, brown the most valuable – and players try to collect sets of them and then go to one of the four port tiles at the corners of the modular board to trade in a specified combination of the goods for a points tile that is worth anywhere from 11 to 20 points. Each player has a boat to move around the board, moving at least one tile per turn. When you land on a tile, you can place a trading post on it, doing so for free if it’s empty and paying one cube for each opponent’s post already on the tile, after which you can use the trading function of that tile as often as you’d like, including more than once on this turn. (In a two-player game, you pay two cubes to build on a tile with your opponent’s post already on it.) All trades on the board are net-positive, so there are no bad tiles, but some are more useful than others, depending on what objectives are present at that time in the game. You can also move to a tile and choose to ‘harvest,’ taking two yellow cubes for free, rather than trading.

Eastern Wonders adds an additional layer on top of this mechanism, as you gain points and bonus abilities as you place trading posts. Your player card has 20 spaces on it that are covered by posts at the start of the game. Each tile has an icon representing one of the four trade goods, and when you build a post on a tile, you take a token from that row on your card. Once you’ve emptied a column on your card, you may take one of the game’s bonus tokens, which can confer valuable abilities – moving one extra space for free each turn, getting a free pink cube when you harvest, storing 13 cubes instead of 10 – or just give you points at game-end. The second post you place from each row is worth a point at game-end, the third and fourth two points, and the fifth post three points.

Moving around the board gets more difficult as the game progresses. If you move to a tile with an opponent’s boat, you have to pay them a cube, so doing this is generally not a great strategy. Building posts on tiles that already have two or more posts on them, or just one in a two-player game, is costly, and you’ll often find yourself less willing to pay that penalty as the game progresses because you’re trying to scrape enough cubes together to fulfill another contract. The game ends as soon as any player finishes their fourth objective, with players just completing that round, so usually you’ll end up with one player getting four objectives and their bonuses and everyone else ending with three; it’s possible to win with only three objectives, especially if they have higher bonuses, but it’s harder, so there’s a bit of a race to the finish. You can improve your chances by figuring out optimal paths around the board that work a bit like engines – a sequence of three or four tiles that quickly let you go from some low-value combination (usually including two yellows from a harvest move) to the higher-value set that fulfills an objective card, or at least gets you some brown and green cubes you can then trade down for whatever you need for objectives on the board at that point.

Of the three games in the trilogy, Eastern Wonders is the most complex (although it’s still on the lighter side) and takes the longest to play, and while I like it quite a bit, I also think it’s my least favorite of the trio. The Eastern Wonders box includes a separate set of rules and a few additional components that let you combine it with Spice Road for a single game called Sand to Sea, although a glance at the rules seemed to rob the games of the elegance that makes them both fun. Eastern Wonders plays two to four, as do the other games in the series, but in our experience can easily run an hour for even a three-person game with fairly quick turns, longer than the other two require, and I would say this is the least appropriate of the three for younger players because of the route-optimization aspect. For adults and older kids, though, I recommend it.

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→ June 27, 2019
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Klawchat 6/27/19.

My ranking of the top 25 MLB players under age 25 is up for ESPN+ subscribers, as is a scouting post that covers Grayson Rodriguez, Deivi Garcia, and more.

Keith Law: Well known in the streets and the gutters. Klawchat.

Dave C: If the Mets didn’t make that ill advised Cano/Diaz trade would they have a top 5 minor league system after this past draft?
Keith Law: Probably? Have to factor in what other teams have done since as well, but with Kelenic/Dunn both doing so well plus a very strong draft and only one major graduation (Alonso) they’d be in great shape.

Chris: What is Tony Gonsolin going to be long term?
Keith Law: Still TBD. Starter potential.

Scott: How close was Victor Robles to making your top 25 under 25 list?
Keith Law: I didn’t go beyond 25. Sorry.

Dave C: Now that he’s signed where would Allan slot versus the Mets other top pitching prospects- Kay, Peterson, Szapucki and Woods-Richardson?
Keith Law: Behind Kay. I think ahead of the others.

Zach: Are we finally seeing the version of Kevin Newman you’ve long championed?
Keith Law: Mostly. Bear in mind his BABIP is not going to stay at .400+ – same for Bryan Reynolds – but Newman’s high contact rates will help him even as that drifts downward.

Dave C: Can Dominic Smith be an effective Left Fielder? He’s at 0 DRS, -.2 UZR on fangraphs but I don’t know if that’s sustainable.
Keith Law: My guess is no, although I’d like him to prove me wrong on that.

Hollis: Cody Bolton just got promoted to AA. Is he a Top 100 guy in your next round of evaluations?
Keith Law: No.

Moe Mentum: Is the skepticism more about the two-city model in general, or specifically about Montreal’s and/or Tampa’s support system (investors, fans, voters, etc.)? In other words, could other cities pull off a shared team approach?
Keith Law: Two cities that were closer might pull it off, but why would two different cities fund stadiums that would only be used 40-41 times a year? No team is paying to build two; most refuse to even build one.

Scott: How do you grade the year that Carter Kieboom is having? He was over matched in the big leagues although in a very SSS. He has however absolutely RAKED in Fresno. How do you reconcile that and how has it changed your thoughts on him as a prospect either for better or worse?
Keith Law: Raking in AAA doesn’t change my view on any prospect given the juiced ball there.

Dan: Jazz Chisholm seems to be hitting the ball hard, just not all that often. Any reason to be concerned about the hit tool in his exposure to AA pitching?
Keith Law: Nope. I’m still in.

Keith Law Disciple: Should I have any optimism for Logan Warmoth – got promoted to Double A, but not showing much in the way of power and strikes out a ton.
Keith Law: I’m out … every scout I’ve asked who’s seen him has buried him.

Jake: Are you downgrading Royce Lewis because of his swing change? Do you still think he can be a 60 hitter or is there legitimate concern here?
Keith Law: He’s not a future 60 hitter with the current swing/setup, but what prevents him from going back to his old mechanics? I take guys like him and slide them down a little bit to acknowledge the change, but it’s not like I’d drop him out of the top 50 for this. There is no reason he can’t just restore the way he hit last year and become a top 10-15 prospect again.

Andrew: Who would you rather have for the next ten years, Paddock or Gore?
Keith Law: Gore.

Jake: Kowar got the bump to AA and had a nice first start. How long before Lynch follows the former Gators?
Keith Law: He hasn’t pitched in almost four weeks, so it may be a while.

Todd: Whats Deivi Garcia’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Good mid-rotation guy. Lot of risk with that frame, but the stuff is real.

Jose: Do you go to Cape this year?
Keith Law: Although I’d love to, my schedule in July is not cooperating and I may skip it this year for minor league stuff, Under Armour, and non-baseball commitments.

Tim : I watched the college World Series and thought it was great baseball. But I didn’t understand why there was so much bunting. Can you explain it? Aren’t the analytics against bunting at the mlb level the same at the highest college level?
Keith Law: Yes, but college coaches are obsessed with sac bunting as a whole. It’s easier to teach bunting than to teach hitting, I guess.

JC: Hi Keith- I know you haven’t been as high on Torkeleon as others. While he isn’t a good defender, has anything on your opinion changed at all?
Keith Law: That’s simply not true.

cm: Are you aware of any studies that say changing arm slot while pitching can increase arm health? If not, any thought on this idea?
Keith Law: Doesn’t it depend on the before and after?

Nelson: Keith, ever consider putting more uplifting links in your stick to baseball page? Sometimes its 25 downright depressing links
Keith Law: Well, the world is burning, diseases are spreading, and the Supreme Court just told voters democracy is optional. My links aren’t depressing; reality is.

Dd: I would have a really hard time getting excited for Biden, his voting record, Anita Hill, the gaffs.. 100% of my energy would be Anti- Trump. Not sure that Biden turns out young/unreliable voters out either because he isn’t that progressive.
The Dems are probably running at least 10 people who are a better choice.
Do you think we see Biden drop in the polls as people learn about his lousy voting record and voters get to know any of the four female Senators, all whom would be excellent choices?
Keith Law: I really don’t think he’s going to end up the candidate.

Steve: Think Adell gets a call up at some point this season?
Keith Law: No.

Jeff: With the picks Atlanta made from rounds 11-19, how much did that increase their draft haul? Is this a long-term strategy or just a one-time thing?
Keith Law: Very good strategy for this year’s draft class. It turned their draft class from “huh” to “pretty good.”

Jordan: What the heck are the Astros going to do with Kyle Tucker? Springer, Reddick, Alvarez and Brantley are blocking him and he needs to be playing in the big leagues right now.
Keith Law: Feels like trade bait. Doesn’t help that someone in Houston keeps leaking stories that he’s not liked in the clubhouse.

Neema: Hey Keith, love your work on ESPN! What are your thoughts on JP Crawford’s improved play this year? Do you think the breakout we’re seeing so far is legitimate?
Keith Law: Like Newman, his BABIP is unsustainable, but I still think the rest of the skill set is real – he’s always had a good eye and willingness to get to two strikes, and he has all-fields doubles power, but he got very pull-happy in Philly (and in AAA). He’s gotten back to using the whole field again and it’s helping.

Matt: How uncommon is it that Giolito has found success by largely going away from his curve, which it seems like most prospect evaluators (including you I believe) saw as his strongest pitch when he was coming up through the minors. Thanks!
Keith Law: It’s very surprising but if the pitch isn’t working for you you can’t force it. The changeup is plus, and he’s commanding the FB like never before.

Mac: You a Tesla or other EV guy?
Keith Law: Would love one but not at the current cost. I have had a Civic hybrid for six years and love it.

Kevin : In a fair world MLB would help pay for a new Rays stadium in Tampa Bay after using the region to create leverage for other teams for decades, but because life is shit should I just resign to losing my team in 8 years?
Keith Law: Yep, I think they’re toast.

Gary: What do you think is Jeff McNeil’s true talent level?
Keith Law: He’s third in the majors in BABIP, so we can probably bet on a good bit of regression. (Sorry, I didn’t mean to make this the “so-and-so’s BABIP is unsustainable chat.”) That said, as long as he keeps his K% so low he’s going to have plenty of value even without much power. Probably makes him a soft regular whenever the BABIP comes down to earth – although his ‘natural’ BABIP is probably higher than league average, given what we’ve seen in the last 11 months.

Brian: I’m not sure if you saw deadspin’s piece today about foul ball injuries but after reading it, how can MLB defend not extending netting at every park?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen the piece, but come on, are we waiting for a child to die?

Joe: Aside from drastic moves organizationally (like the Astros a couple years ago) is it common for scouts to change teams somewhat frequently? Or would it not be uncommon for one scout to spend an entire career with an organization despite several changes in GM?
Keith Law: Scouts change teams all the time. There’s still too much of a sense in front offices that they’re … not quite disposable, but more easily replaced than they actually are.

Ryan: The Dbacks tried hiring an agent to be their GM and it was a train wreck. Same thing seems to be happening to the Mets
Keith Law: Never hire off the interview. Hire off the CV, and maybe references, but never, ever hire off the interview.

Todd: Did you think Gleyber would have 30HR type potential?
Keith Law: No but the current baseball has skewed any HR projections I had for players. I thought Alonso would be a 35-40 HR guy and he’s on pace for 50.

Jack Meoff: Keith big fan!! Thank you for all you do. Is Catan a top 10 board game for you?
Keith Law: In historical importance and influence, yes. It might be #1. In my personal preferences, no. It’s a fine game, but you can wait too long between turns, and it doesn’t work with two players.

Josh Nelson: Is having just three starting pitchers the new market inefficiency? Asking for White Sox fans.
Keith Law: It’s a bold strategy, Nelson. Let’s see how it works out for you.

Kevin: With the Red Sox bullpen struggles is there any chance someone like Tanner Houck can provide relief help in the 2nd half of the season or is it too soon for him? Keep up the good work!
Keith Law: Would love to see him.

Eric: Was Yordan Alvarez eligible for your 25 under 25 list?
Keith Law: Players who still have ROY eligibility are not eligible for the list.

Ben: Would you guess we see some more deals happen earlier in July this year? 1 win would make a huge difference for a ton of these bubble teams
Keith Law: Yes. That’s my hope as well.

TheLostBoy: Are you a weekly watcher of “Last Week Tonight”?
Keith Law: I was, and I still like the show, but in this environment it’s just more things to get angry about when I am already angry enough about the world we’re creating for the next generation. (Or the generation after that, if we haven’t scorched the planet by then.)

Adam: Mackenzie Gore is dominating A+ and doesnt look like he’s being challenged. Do you see a quick ascent to the majors in the next 12 months or is he still a few years away?
Keith Law: I could see him mid-next year; the Padres don’t wait, and why would you wait on an arm that good already? But I can’t see them pushing him to the majors this year.

J: Do you happen to have like an author page, that has all of your articles for e+?
Keith Law: No, ESPN discontinued those. I asked for a new one but was told they don’t do them. (shrug)

Ben: Starting Adley at a bad level?
Keith Law: Have they announced where he’s starting? I haven’t seen that. Also, I assume that was a typo.

J: Okay, so instead of changing the literal distance a pitcher must pitch the ball, the chance MLB addresses the problem with the ACTUAL ball?
Keith Law: First they’d have to admit they have a problem.

Jason: Drew Waters is raking in AA, but he’s only 20. What’s a realistic ETA for him? And how excited should I be about him, recognizing I’m just scouting a stat line.
Keith Law: He’s raking but also striking out a lot and barely walking, which isn’t a fatal flaw but could indicate some deficiencies in the approach that are getting masked by the high average and power.

Ben: How come the Dbacks didn’t select Matt Allen with any of their picks if he was so good?
Keith Law: Because they didn’t want to commit well over slot to signing him.

Baltimurph: Following up on your scouting report, do you think Grayson Rodriguez is a future MLB starter as is or do you think his mechanics need to be totally rebuilt?
Keith Law: I can’t think of an MLB starter who throws like that. Any examples I could come up with who were close ended up getting hurt.

romorr: Adley was thought of as a fast riser. Him going to GCL/A- should put that to rest, right?
Keith Law: Wrong.
Keith Law: Where he starts isn’t really relevant to the question of how fast he’ll move. He may start in Aberdeen because it’s so close to Baltimore, for example.

Zac: Is Kumar Rocker trending towards a top 5 pick in 2 years?
Keith Law: I said on the podcast this morning that I’d go top 10, but not stronger. There’s a whole class of players we’ve barely seen for the 2021 draft, and putting Rocker in a bucket like that now doesn’t adequately consider the rest of the candidates.

John: Esteban Florial a future all star?
Keith Law: I don’t see it. Pitch recognition is still a problem.

Ben: Have you ever had surgery? Would you be scared?
Keith Law: Twice. Wasn’t scared but can’t say I enjoyed any of it.

Chris: Given how bad the Mets pitching is, I’d consider selling incredibly high on Alonso for 4-5 good young arms and bump Smith to 1B. Am I crazy?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine ownership would allow it, and fans would riot, but trading Alonso now for something – they’re not getting 4-5 good young arms, those deals do not exist – would have merit. I think it’s way more likely they deal Dom.

Rick Saul: What happened to Manuel Margot’s offense?. Has ship sailed on him being a productive MLBer?
Keith Law: Still just 24.
Keith Law: All the ex-prospects who broke out this year should serve as a nice reminder to stop giving up too soon on ex-prospects.

Sally: Hello Keith big fan. Is the Ooni oven great?
Keith Law: I love it. I’ve gotten it up to 900 degrees (actually too hot, the bottom of the crust started to burn), can hold it in the 770-800 range for a while, found it easy to work with. You just have to keep feeding it pellets to keep the temp up; once it drops, it drops fast and takes a while to heat back up.

Ryan: Did you see the article on The Athletic on the Ranger’s failed de-load program? Are there any other teams trying new throwing programs to help prevent arm injuries?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen that either but I have heard a lot of whispers of something they were trying that pitchers/agents suspected was contributing to their rash of injuries. Always hard to tell what’s legit and what’s griping.

cm: On the arm slots, I meant using more than one slot while pitching. For example, like David Cone used to at times.
Keith Law: Ah, thank you, I did not understand. I don’t think so; I would guess that for most pitchers it would increase injury risk because you’re trying to use muscles you don’t normally use to throw.

Adam: WIth so much young talent under the age of 24 succeeding early in MLB, do you see arbitration years being adjusted with new CBA? Seeing players like Judge/Bellinger/ getting under 1Mil per year is insane
Keith Law: I would really like to see that. The union has to change its focus for the next negotiation towards paying young players more, whether via more arb years or earlier free agency.

Mike: Are Casey Mize’s mechanics going to lead to continues arm problems?
Keith Law: No.

Frank: As a D-Backs fan how excited should I be about Tommy Henry? He was dominant in the CWS. While he doesn’t have the velocity everyone is obsessed with now the control and movement looked outstanding.
Keith Law: Back-end starter.

Indians system: Is Mahoning Valley key to Indians’ future? Rocchio, Valera, Hankins, Delgado
Keith Law: Their strongest affiliate for future talent.

Sally: How often do you and Chris Crawford hangout? Love you both on twitter
Keith Law: We’ve only hung out 2-3 times, but we talk online every day. Mostly baseball and movies but other stuff too. Great dude.

Robert: Does the uniqueness of Nick Madrigal’s profile make him more difficult to assess as a prospect?
Keith Law: No.

Uli Jon: My friend is going to Gen Con. Do you have an updated dining guide or just a few places you can recommend?
Keith Law: I eat at the food trucks that line up next to the convention center. There are some great ones – Keplinger’s Fresh Catch is the first place I eat each year.

Feeling A Draft: Based on what you said about this coming year’s draft on the BBTN podcast do you think it would be smart of teams at this year’s trade deadline to try to acquire competitive balance picks?
Keith Law: For sure. But most teams want to retain those, so my guess is only 1-2 get moved.

BigDaddeh: Do you think the Mets success is going to lead to other teams using former agents as GMs?
Keith Law: (spit take)

Paul: Hey Keith – your love for Oreo’s is well-known and righteous. I saw your tweet last night as I happened to be eating an Oreo Blizzard from Dairy Queen, and it got me wondering: any KLaw thoughts on Oreo Blizzards? Also if this question makes the chat, I’d just like to also announce that Oreo McFlurries are trash and don’t deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Oreo Blizzards, thank you for your time.
Keith Law: I do love oreos mixed into ice cream. When I go to Culvers (rare, but I love it), my go-to is a chocolate concrete with oreos and pecans.

Bob Pollard: Sorry if you’ve addressed this (probably have many times), but where do you stand on “clutch is a myth/no it’s real”?
Keith Law: It’s a myth. I explain at length in Smart Baseball.

BigDaddeh: Is Nick Solak an every day guy one in the majors?
Keith Law: I’d bet the under.

Tom C: Why don’t you think Adell will get called up this year? Setback because of his injury earlier this season? I was thinking maybe it could be like a Trout scenario where they call him up late and prep to be up for good next year.
Keith Law: He’s barely played this year, and they’d be adding him to the 40-man before they needed to do so.

Andrew: Corbin Martin BB/9 at A and AA was 2.5, now this year 4.5 in AAA (was 5.5 w/ HOU). Reason for concern or just growing pains?
Keith Law: Again, the ball in AAA is different than in AA.

Dave: What did you think when you heard that the Mets were having Rosario take reps in CF? I don’t know what the heck happened to his defense at SS but it has been atrocious going on two years now. Do you think he could make a plus defensive CFer?
Keith Law: His regression on defense has to be laid on the coaching staff. I saw him in the minors, so did everyone else. Nobody had him playing like this.

Mat Ji: I’m old enough to remember back when Bauer was going to stop being an internet troll….way back in January of 2019.
Keith Law: He’s gone out of his way to attack at least two women writers I know just since this season began. He can say whatever dumb shit he wants to me, but the story I heard the other day – I don’t know if I can repeat any of this – is beyond trolling. Writers who continue to talk him up are just enabling him.
Keith Law: And, by the way, there are 750+ other players out there. I’m sure there’s at least one more guy who is analytically-minded and focused on self-improvement through modern methods, and would be happy to talk about it on the record.

JP: Is Yamamoto a mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: No.

alek: what is Alec Bohm’s offensive potential
Keith Law: I think there’s some middle-of-the-order potential there. He’s 90% likely to do it at first base, though, and the Phillies have a pretty good one.

John: What’s Luis Arraez’s ceiling, everyday 2B? More likely outcome utility guy?
Keith Law: More likely utility guy but I wouldn’t rule out everyday.

romorr: Adley to GCL to knock off rust, then to A-. From press conference.
Keith Law: Yeah I don’t see how that would mean he’s not a fast mover … why couldn’t he start next year in AA?

Chris: Would you include C Will Smith in a trade for Felipe Rivero? What else would the Dodgers have to kick in?
Keith Law: I would not but I value relievers lower than the trade market seems to.

Mark: When do you think Luis Urias gets recalled?
Keith Law: I mean, he should have been up a month ago.

Jackson: Do you project Alzolay as a SP? Ceiling?
Keith Law: I think so, as long as he can get LHB out with the FB/CB (or his CH really improves).

Capt. Gore: “if we haven’t scorched the planet by then” he said as he hoped in a plane and flew across the country….again…
Keith Law: Capt. Gore: “Yet you participate in society. Curious! I am very intelligent.”

Jonathan: Thoughts on Jake Cronenworth. Hitting well and heard he was up to 95 from the mound.
Keith Law: Interesting. Up to 96 with a plus CB, small mechanical tweaks last year at the plate that let him drive the ball better. Older guy for a prospect, so I’m skeptical as always of how much is just age vs level, but there are tangible skills there.

Trey Anastasio: Have you ever seen Phish live?
Keith Law: OK someone’s trolling me. I’m seeing them for the first time this weekend and I think you know this.

James: Do top College pitchers get time to rest their arms? Seems like it is year round pitching with fall ball, summer Ball and then the season?
Keith Law: More college arms skip the summer than ever before. As much as I would like more chances to see them, this is the right call for the pitchers.

Craig: Do you think a “deader” ball would reduce the reliance on 3 True Outcomes baseball, mainly because it would quickly become inefficient for average/mediocre players?
Keith Law: Yes. That said, I don’t want a ball that leads to even more strikeouts. I just want a HR rate more in line with historical levels.

Jonathan: Is Shane Bieber the next James Shields, which is a good thing, or is there more there?
Keith Law: No, this is it. And it’s fine. Back end starter type because he’ll always be HR prone.

Kev: What is your % belief that Vargas actually has legit dirt/excuse for why he was being a gigantic asshole bully to the reporter last week?
Keith Law: Zero. And frankly, even if he does have it, just apologize in public and deal with this in private.

Jesse B: Keibert Ruiz has really struggled this year, obviously he’s still really young. Meanwhile, Will Smith is thriving in AAA, and done well in his cup of coffee. Is it safe to say that Will Smith will be the starting catcher for the Dodgers next year?
Keith Law: Yes but that doesn’t dim Ruiz’s potential, as he’s so much younger.

Jeries: Could Nick Madrigal play shortstop? Tim Anderson has been BAD this year
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Trey Anastasio: My take on the Red Sox future is that they would be wise to lock up Devers & Betts (Xander already signed)… and use Benintendi as a trade chip for a young SP. What you be on board fo that strategy?
Keith Law: Yes but it sounds like Mookie wants to go to free agency, no? Devers I’m sure they could lock up.

Alex: Hey Keith, I haven’t had the chance to write in since the Kumar Rocker 19 K start. I 100% agree that he was left in too long, especially seeing as he hasn’t received his baseball millions yet. Still, in the moment, that was the most fun random baseball game I have watched from beginning to end in ages. It’s kind of similar to knowing that home runs and fly balls above all is a better strategy than small ball and putting the ball in play. I don’t really have a question, except to bemoan that the more we learn, the less exciting baseball can be.
Keith Law: Sure, I don’t disagree. But I will say that this idea that Rocker did something he’ll remember forever is a bit much. Maybe in the moment it felt that way, but “threw a no-hitter in a college playoff super regional” is pretty niche. Great personal achievement but hardly worth pushing a kid’s arm too far.

Jon: Never hire off the interview. Is that for all jobs in your opinion or just baseball? If the former, why have interviews? Thanks.
Mat Ji: “Never hire off the interview. Hire off the CV, and maybe references, but never, ever hire off the interview.” Having sat through multiple pointless interviews with candidates this week, I am not sure I could agree more.
Keith Law: I feel like Mat just answered Jon a bit. Why have interviews? Aren’t they 90% eyewash? They likely often deter decision-makers from hiring the better employee because they hire the person they liked more (perhaps for subconscious reasons, perhaps even biased ones) or the person who was more animated or funnier or energetic.

Ben: This time next year Reilly Greene will be playing at ____ level?
Keith Law: Low A.

fish: christian pache will be an elite defender T/F? pache will be a league-average hitter at best T/F?
Keith Law: He is an elite defender. He will find his way to league average with power.

Sally: Why have you not be as hard on Dodgers Urias for domestic violence as you have on others? Such as Addison Russell
Keith Law: Charges were dropped and MLB declined to suspend him. Russell was suspended, so MLB found sufficient cause, and his ex-wife came forward with a very detailed account of the abuse.

Mike: What do teams do with players and prospects like franklin Perez and Roman Quinn who always seem to be hurt. Do you rush them and hope you can extract value until they are inevitably hurt again or try and move them to a team that thinks they can unlock the potential and cure their injury issues.
Keith Law: If you have the playing time to give them, you try to hold on to them and give them opportunities until you either have a better option or you need the 40-man spot.

romorr: I just figured since the Orioles are so far away from being good, that they would be conservative with him. You know, maybe 3 years down instead of 2. Was thinking he was bound for Delmarva from the start, so just trying to understand.
Keith Law: I would guess he starts next year in Frederick, moves quickly to Bowie, and is in position for a major-league callup by August. They may choose not to do so, as you said, because they’re not good, but in terms of his readiness, I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t blitz his way through the low minors to double-A.

Biff: What do you make of Alex Reyes’ inability to stay healthy?
Keith Law: I’ve always disliked his delivery. Maybe that’s why. Maybe it’s just bad luck.
Keith Law: I mean, maybe he can’t stay healthy because of his delivery, not because I don’t like the delivery. I’m not that powerful.

EG: Gerrymandering okay, says US Supreme Court. The 2016 Electron will haunt us for decades.
Keith Law: Yep. We got what we deserved.

Magoo: Hey Keith, huge board game nerd with a 9 month old here. Obviously still quite early for me, but good suggestions for beginner games, and what age would be good to start?
Keith Law: There are really good games aimed at kids 4+. Before then just play anything at all that they like – it’s the playing with them that matters, not the game.

Jofp gallagher: Do you believe the Lucas Giolito in the future will be more like this year’s Giolito or last year’s Giolito?
From worse to one of the best pitchers is a remarkable achievement so I wonder.
Keith Law: I’m in. Real changes to delivery and stuff.

Jason: Ceiling on Austin Riley?
Keith Law: Got to make more contact first.

Ridley: I’m always excited to see Elizabeth Warren speak. Is that legit, or is it just the novelty of potentially having a President who is willing to do the work to learn a subject and come up with an intelligent policy for it?

P.S. Regarding interviews: Never hire off an interview, but you can absolutely disqualify candidates based on ’em.
Keith Law: She’s my favored candidate right now, as she has real policy proposals with substance behind them, and everything she says seems well-considered. What a concept.
Keith Law: Gotta run – thanks for all your questions, as always. I’ll be back next week for one more pre-Futures Game chat. And come see me at the Hudson Library & Historical Society on July 8th in Hudson, Ohio. Thanks again!

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