→ November 21, 2015
→ By

Stick to baseball, 11/21/15.

Not much from me at Insider this week as I wait for a big trade or signing worth writing up; I did post my NL ROY ballot with my explanation on Monday, and held my regular Klawchat on Thursday. I’ve deferred a couple of trade comments because the PTBNLs might be significant, such as in the Leonys Martin-Tom Wilhelmsen trade.

I know there are many sci-fi fans among you – Robert Heinlein’s first Hugo winner, Double Star, is $2.99 for kindle today. I bought it since I’m reading the Hugo winners and haven’t read that one yet.

Also, if you didn’t see my post yesterday, the Ticket to Ride app (for iOS devices or for Android) received a major update, with upgrades to the base game and in-app purchases for most of the major maps (Europe, Switzerland, Asia, and India) available as well.

And now, my longest-yet collection of links …

  • The closing of Grantland has relit the debate over writers getting paid an appropriate wage for their work, with two strong editorials on the subject appearing over the last few weeks, one from Salon and another from
    Autostraddle. Both followed Wil Wheaton’s tweets about Buzzfeed approaching him about republishing something he’d written on his own blog without any compensation. When people tell me they think it’s “wrong” (or some variation thereof) for ESPN to charge for Insider, they’re falling into this same trap: If you want quality content to survive, you’re probably going to have to pay for it somehow, as ad revenue doesn’t cut it.
  • Buried amidst all the hot takes and thinkpieces after the terrorist attacks on Paris lie some smart writing on the broader topics of fighting Islamist extremists and the Syrian refugee crisis. Military historian Gwynne Dyer argued that terrorism is “overblown” and we shouldn’t bomb ISIS. (Security expert Bruce Schneier has been arguing since before 9/11 that we overreact to terrorist incidents, an overreaction that I think is a combination of availability bias and just plain old-fashioned fear of dying.) Nicholas Hénin, who was held captive by ISIS, also argues against airstrikes, saying we should take out Assad instead, while welcoming Muslim refugees. Freelance journalist David Perry pointed out that the United States has a long history of getting refugee crises “wrong.” And ESPN’s sister site Fivethirtyeight pointed out that of the governors who’ve said they won’t accept Syrian refugees – which is not actually their call, but the federal governments, but, you know, panderers gonna pander – come almost entirely from one party. This manifestation of anti-Muslim/anti-Arab prejudice is exactly the sort of discord ISIS can use to claim to recruits that the West is at war with Islam.
  • The longread of the week, which everyone seemed to be talking about on Twitter already: The New Yorker‘s detailing of the un-conversion of Westboro Baptist scion Megan Phelps-Roper, who, as the primary social media voice of the gay-bashing cult, spewed vitriol and hate for years before social media itself opened her mind.
  • A former Gawker staffer details the site’s problem with female staffers, largely a lack of female voices in the organization but also cases of harassment and other possibly illegal behavior.
  • I’ve long wondered how sellers of used books on amazon get any benefit from selling titles at a penny apiece. The New York Times is on it, describing those sellers’ business models in a way that made me want to go buy more of those books.
  • Christopher Kimball is leaving America’s Test Kitchen. I’ve never been a huge fan of his folksy act on TV or his prolix prose in their books, but I’m in the minority on that, and his personality was a dominant factor in the rise of ATK and success of their various media ventures.
  • Why is Urban Outfitters buying the Vetri restaurant group, which includes the wonderful Pizzeria Vetri mini-chain, modeled after Pizzeria Bianco? I don’t get it, although it seems like a backdoor IPO for Vetri, who will keep only his eponymous flagship restaurant. I just hope the pizzas and the amazing pastas at Osteria don’t change. Maybe now I can convince them to open a pizzeria in Wilmington.
  • NPR’s science desk reports on a contest for sustainable aquaculture startups called Fish 2.0. One winner: SabrTech, which produces substantial Water-filtration Above Replacement by using algae.
  • The Atlantic reports on a 19th century mental hospital in Alabama where the patients produced their own newspaper.
  • The world is on the cusp of a “post-antibiotic era,” based on the discovery of completely antibiotic-resistant strains of two bacteria in livestock in China. This is why buying antibiotic-free meat matters – and mattered a long time ago when we may have had time to prevent this.
  • Two more idiots who won’t vaccinate their baby … except these idiots are famous and someone might listen to them.
  • Friend of the dish Erik Malinowski has a wonderful piece on the 1995 Baltimore Stallions, still and likely forever the only U.S. team to win the CFL’s Grey Cup.
  • Two more strong pieces from Fivethirtyeight: How Alaska is heading for potential bankruptcy and a longread on the difficulty involved in statistical research for scientific papers.
  • This is the best piece I’ve seen on the debate over free speech on campus: In “Confessions of a non-leftist professor,” the author isolates the specific question of academic freedom for faculty members who aren’t in ideological sync with the overwhelming leftist majorities on campus.
  • The libertarian Cato Institute calls out two GOP Presidential candidates (plus Bobby Jindal, who was designated for assignment this past week) for “sucking up to hatemongers” by attending a conference where the keynote speaker called for the execution of gays. You’d think Ted Cruz would be lambasted for this, but the story seems to have slipped under the mainstream media’s radar.
  • Finally, the tweet of the week mocks our idiot friend the FraudBabe:

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: ,
→ November 20, 2015
→ By

Brass app.

Many of you already have the Ticket to Ride app (for iOS devices or for Android), but if not, it’s been overhauled now, with better graphics, some more board-specific AI players, and an all-in-one in-app purchase that gets you all of the various maps beyond the core U.S. map – Europe, Asia, India, Switzerland – in one purchase. It was already a must-have but it’s even better now.

–

Brass is one of the highest-ranked games on Boardgamegeek (#17 overall right now) that I’ve never tried; it was out of print for a while (it’s in print now, $44 new on amazon) and lists a playing time of 2-3 hours, which, since I’m a parent of a fourth grader, isn’t terribly practical right now. (The need to review such games for Paste is why I’ve put out the call for folks in my general area willing to test out some of these longer games with me.) The game, perhaps the best-regarded of all “economic engine” games – where you’re building for immediate points and creating a network that will help you generate more points as the game unfolds – was ripe for an adaptation that speeds setup and does all of the calculations of costs and points for you. Over a year in development, the app finally hit the various online stores last week, and it’s extremely well done if you’re looking for an online experience, but the tutorial is too light and the AI players proved very easy for me, a total novice, to beat. This review covers the iOS version, but it’s also available for Android devices. (There’s an entry for the Android app on amazon, but it’s a fake.)

Players in Brass play 16 turns in two phases set in the Industrial Revolution in England, with the second phase coming after the advent of railroads. Players build four buildings that can produce income as well as points – ports, cotton mills, coal mines, iron works – and must “activate” them by connecting them to networks of canals or rail lines to begin generating revenues. A fifth building, the shipyard, only generates victory points. The exact income and points depend on the “level” you build; you must develop each building type individually over the course of the game to keep up with the times and your opponents. Money is scarce early in the game, but Brass allows players to take loans – as far as I can tell, you can’t get anywhere without it – of up to £30 if you pay 10% interest every turn for the remainder of the game.


In 19th century England, tiny hills were totally impassable.

On each turn, the player gets two actions, choosing from building, developing, taking a loan, shipping cotton (from your own mill to any player’s port), or building a canal/rail link. Players have hands of up to eight cards, with cards showing either one of the towns on the map where players can build or a specific building type; to build, you must discard a card that shows either the town where you want to place the building or that building type, then pay the cost – but in many cases you must also meet another requirement, like having a link to your network or being able to get coal to the building site. You then activate a building by using it – shipping cotton from the mill, shipping it out of a port, providing coal to the network all at once or one bit at a time as you build within the network, or sending a bunch of iron to the market. (Shipyards are activated automatically when built.) Each town allows specific building types; in phase one, you can only have one building in each location, but that’s lifted for phase two. At the end of phase one, all level-one (undeveloped) buildings and all canals disappear; in phase two, you can only build level-two or higher buildings, and can only build rail lines. The AI player always uses its first move of the game to develop ports to level two, so I have adopted the same plan, as it ensures that those ports provide a greater return and stay in place for the remainder of the game. Turn order changes each turn, going in reverse order of spending from the previous turn – if you spent nothing last turn, such as by taking loans with each action, you’ll go first next time around.

Games on the app take about 10-15 minutes, on par with other complex strategy games like Agricola and Caylus. The graphics are clear and bright, the map itself is attractive, and the animations (if you use them) are helpful while you’re learning the game. There are pop-up menus from the sides that can give you all the information you need once you understand what you’re looking for, and I only encountered very minor glitches, such as the app telling me I could ship cotton on some turns when I didn’t have an unactivated cotton mill from which to ship.

The tutorial was a little superficial and didn’t get into some of the details of interactions between buildings or point scoring, so I didn’t understand anything but the basic mechanics and had to learn a lot of the game’s restrictions on building via trial and error. I’ve also found that, once I understood the game, I could beat the AI players every time, even playing against three at once, primarily because they never build shipyards. A level two shipyard is worth 18 points, and there are only three spots on the board where you can build one; with winning scores typically around 100-110, if you build two shipyards, you’re going to win. I haven’t lost any game where I built even one shipyard, in fact. (It also seems to me that there should be at least one shipyard space per player.) I’ve swapped emails with the developers and there will be improved AI players in a later update.

The game itself is very elegant, with a small number of rules and options leading to complex strategic decisions, but has virtually no interaction between players. I found after a few plays that I could simply skip the animations of AI players’ moves and play my own game as if I were going solo. There are rare conflicts over building spaces on the board, and there’s a brief race each phase to ship cotton before the export market’s bottom falls out (which it does, quickly), but otherwise that’s it. The fact that AI players don’t build shipyards means I can wait till the last phase to do so, and even ignoring that, the AI players’ moves didn’t otherwise affect me. You can use anyone’s canals or rail lines, and even ship cotton from someone else’s ports. If you need coal to finish a building, you can take from someone else’s unactivated coal mine; the worst thing that happens is that you take its last piece and activate the mine for your opponent, but that was probably going to happen at some point anyway.

If the designers of Brass – who have had some great blog posts on the process, like explaining their improved method of displaying victory points – improve the AI players, this could be a must-buy for serious boardgamers along the lines of Caylus and Agricola, both of which have AI players that are at least tougher for the novice player. I’d also like to see a tutorial that explains more of the details of building and scoring, so that newbies wouldn’t have to fly so blind for their first few games. But it looks great and plays cleanly, two of the biggest hurdles for new apps that try to implement games of this size and complexity.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: , , ,
→ November 19, 2015
→ By

Klawchat 11/19/15.

Klaw: You gotta go for what you know. Klawchat.

Ryan: What makes you such a believer in Javier Guerra’s power? There have been lots of prospects that hit for power in Greenville, then have it never show up again. Plus he has a distinct lack of power in batting practice, and all his home runs were hit right down the line.
Klaw: I’m not sure what other prospects you meant, or if any of them were 19. I see power in the swing, and he hit for just as much power on the road as he did at home. Home runs down the line are still home runs, last I checked.

Colin: Kapler or Roberts?
Klaw: I don’t know who’ll get it, and knowing nothing of Roberts as a candidate I can’t express a preference either.

SPC: Do you think what Matt Duffy did is sustainable? Improve?
Klaw: I can’t forecast any improvement given how much better he was in the majors than in the minors.

Matt: Are advisers necessary for college players in draft process?
Klaw: Hell yeah. Otherwise negotiating against the team(s) would be like bringing a butter knife to a gunfight.

Adam: How long before Ozzie Albies is ready?
Klaw: Two years.

Michael: What teams have the prospects necessary to land Jose Fernandez if he is traded? Cubs? Red Sox? Astros? Dodgers? Wouldn’t this have been a better use of Margot and Guerra(and Allen and Asuaje) than trading for Kimbrel? Fernandez seems like the perfect Dombrowski target.
Klaw: Yes, if that package would have landed Fernandez, it’s obviously a better use of the resources – but I would guess the Marlins would aim even higher, asking for Moncada for example. Don’t see the Dodgers doing it. Cubs, Red Sox, Astros all could. Braves could but wouldn’t. Rangers absolutely could. Angels absolutely could not.

Chris: Kolby Allard with a 2nd back surgery already, how concern should Braves be?
Klaw: I think that’s his first. March injury was a stress reaction. Not a concern.

Jeremy: what’s the optimal use of Swihart/Vasquez (once healthy). a trade? or having Swihart split time at DH/1B?
Klaw: I think it’s a waste of value to let Swihart play somewhere other than C, so I’d think about a trade at some point. Swihart has superstar potential, but perhaps a bit more risk (volatility in potential outcomes).

Matt: Price, Greinke, Cueto, Zimmerman. Your gut, who ends up where?
Klaw: I really don’t speculate on that stuff, sorry.

Jeremy: can you give your hypothetical 10-man HOF ballot? and full ballot if there were no restrictions?
Klaw: Raines, Bagwell, Piazza, Griffey, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Mussina, Trammell, Edgar. I could add one or two names beyond that, such as Walker, but I don’t feel like anyone HAS to be on there who isn’t.

Luis: Do you think it’s crazy that Hoffman and Wagner are getting HoF consideration? Really their only argument lies in the worst stat in baseball. Besides the fact that relievers don’t pitch enough, I find it baffling that pitchers who weren’t even good enough to crack the starting rotation could get Hall votes. We don’t have to acknowledge every role in Cooperstown with a plaque. We don’t put bench players, pinch-hitters, or pinch-runners in the Hall of Fame, and for good reason. I would argue that pitching so seldom sets the bar extremely, extremlely high to merit induction, and the only full-time reliever to have ever reached that mark is Mariano Rivera.
Klaw: It redefines what the Hall of Fame is about – or, I guess, it continues the redefinition that came with the insane induction of Bruce Freaking Sutter, who barely cleared 1000 innings pitched. Rivera is a yes for me, and that’s it for modern relievers.

Gary: I saw your write up on the AFL and your mention that Rowdy Tellez has trouble with fastballs. Yet, he still seemed to swing it well down there. Do you mean he will be able to hit some of the average heaters he will see in the minors, but will be overmatched by the better stuff in the majors?
Klaw: I’m assuming you’re scouting the stat line. He was behind better fastballs all week when I was there, just as he was in high school. It’s a slow bat.

richard: Does someone claim Becerra if the Mets expose him in the Rule 5? I think yes.
Klaw: I think yes and he gets returned. Can’t carry that guy all year. The rule 5 rules are kind of a mess – they expose Latin American kids to the draft too soon, but absolutely screw college draft picks with the extra year before they can be taken in the rule 5 (extra vs the old system, I mean).

Fitz: Is there any hope for Drew Hutchison? He had a pretty strong 2014 and completely fell off the map in 2015. That adjustment he made to his slider in the 2nd half of 2014 somehow disappeared this season.
Klaw: You answered it the way I would. If they find that missing slider – perhaps it was lost at customs? – then he can be that same guy again. Otherwise I think he’s a reliever.

Oilcan23: I understand that you think the Red Sox gave up too much for Kimbrell, and I really do understand why. That said, does it matter that the pieces the Red Sox gave up probably wouldn’t have played a Fenway over the next three years (maybe Margot makes it)? Do you place any credence in the idea that the Red Sox are a win-now franchise that can’t wait for players like Margot to develop when they have pressing needs today? I can’t speak for all Red Sox fans, but I can’t imagine “trust the process” going over all that well in Boston.
Klaw: No, it doesn’t matter, because the value of those assets they dealt is independent of whether they’re blocked in Fenway. If you insist on trading Margot, then get a fair return for him. They didn’t.

Bill G.: Keith, thanks for doing these chats. If you were starting a team, who would you want long term, Lindor or Corey Seager. Thanks.
Klaw: Seager. Nothing against Lindor, though.

Brandon: Who is most likely to get a shot in Houston first… Tyler White or AJ Reed? Reed looks like the better long-term bet to be good, but White has hit EVERYWHERE. Thanks, Keith.
Klaw: I think they give White a shot first because he’s a lesser prospect and they’ll be more concerned about manipulating Reed’s service time than White’s.

Jay: What are your thoughts on the Nats signing Heyward and moving Harper to CF?
Klaw: Certainly makes them a much better team. I believe Harper can play CF. At that point I’d look to trade Taylor, though.

Devin: Hey Keith, I’ve read a few reputable scouting reports on Jorge Lopez and they are saying he could be a solid #2 or #3 starter in the mlb. Do you share the same opinion? If so, what about him makes him a front/midldle of the rotation type of guy?
Klaw: A two seems a bit optimistic given his stuff, but he can really pitch. I see a three, mid-rotation type with a lot of above-average weapons but nothing that’s an absolute out pitch, and good feel and control. Good pick in the second round – projectable HS arm who came along “slowly” relative to what we demand out of prospects these days but actually advanced at a perfectly reasonable pace.

Tom: Is there any chance that during the CBA negotiations that the union tries to upgrade pay for minor leaguers as part of a proposal to raise the percentage of revenue spent on players? Or, is this a non starter since the union only represents the players already in the majors?
Klaw: Union has zero incentive to do this.

Buck: Mallex Smith, Roman Quinn, Socrates Brito – who’s more likely to become a legitimate top-of-the-order hitter for his team?
Klaw: Probably Smith. Not wild about any of them.

Joe: I saw on Twitter that the White Sox are willing to trade Avisail Garcia. Is that actually news? Aren’t most teams always willing to trade fringe major leaguers who are running low on options?
Klaw: Yes, although maybe it’s news in the sense that he was kind of hyped by his clubs (Detroit and Chicago) a few years back.

Steve: Would Papi get your HOF vote?
Klaw: No. Adjusted for era and position, it’s not a Hall of Fame offensive career.

Dave: I’m about 3/4 through reading “Crime and Punishment”, and I’m surprised by how witty and funny it is. I was expecting a dreary slog, but it’s been delightful (and exciting in places). Is there a book you’ve read out of a feeling of obligation (“I should really read that,”) that especially surprised you?
Klaw: Middlemarch and Tess of the d’Urbervilles. The latter was assigned to me in high school and I watched the movie instead. I read it when I was 33 and was blown away by the prose and the use of irony.

Kevin: Do you expect Beede or Blackburn to be called up to the show in 2016?
Klaw: Blackburn yes, Beede no.

Fonz: If baseball did not exist, do you think your career today would be in writing?
Klaw: I think now that it’s what I was always meant to do, but it’s not the career I originally chose for myself, largely because I was trying to meet others’ expectations for me.

Michael: There seem to be two approaches related to the fragility of pitchers: draft a ton of them and play the numbers OR value position players and hope to find pitchers to plug in. Do you prefer either approach?
Klaw: I’d be disinclined to go heavy on pitching early in the draft; there are always exceptions, but I’d lean hitter up top and look for projectable HS arms after the first or the top two rounds.

Fonz: Now that he’s improved contact, do you foresee Bogaerts starting to pull / drive the ball more, or has he transformed into a slap-the-ball-to-the-opposite field guy?
Klaw: I think the power’s still there, but as you said, he had to work on improving his contact first to get to that power.

Jay: Did you factor in the cost of draft pick forfeiture in the free agent rankings? Seems like that would sway the choice towards Price over Greinke if they were close to a coin flip to start.
Klaw: No, and I didn’t factor in any estimate of cost. It was strictly about on-field value.

Matt: Nothing says Thanksgiving like the xenophobia running rampant in this country. When this topic comes up at the dinner table, and it will, how do I keep my composure?
Klaw: Don’t – just serve kebab halabi made with turkey, some labneh, maybe some falafel…

Ken: assuming McCann is not blocking him, is Sanchez ready to catch full time or still need work defensively? If so, is he the back up this year?
Klaw: Still think he needs work defensively.

Derek Harvey: Do you think Trevor Bauer has room to improve or is back-end starter his likely role/caliber from now on.
Klaw: If he ever finds more control, he could have a huge breakout year. I have no sense of when or how that might occur, though. Remember when some folks argued he had to be the first pick over Gerrit Cole in 2011, based just on the stats? That was fun.

Archie: Is Herrera the starting 2B for the Mets next year? What could be expected from him?
Klaw: I think he could be, although this dalliance with Zobrist could affect those plans.

Zirinsky: What are you making for Thanksgiving dinner (assuming you’re cooking)?
Klaw: I am. I’m going to spatchcock the turkey (NSFW), and sides will include stuffing (at least one, maybe a second with gluten-free cornbread as we will have two guests who can’t eat wheat), a warm potato salad, roasted brussels sprouts, a beet dish, possibly a kale Caesar with duck confit (if I can get the duck legs), the dish-that-must-not-be-named (initials are g.b.c.), and at least one more vegetable side. Desserts will be pumpkin pie, probably apple pie, and a GF chocolate tart with an oat-nut crust.

Thomas: Do you see JD Davis a a future big league regular? If not, is it his bat or seeming lack of a position that would hold him back?
Klaw: Below. Little of both.

Diana G: I agree with the Kimbrel comments, but if he saves four WS games does the end justify the means?
Klaw: Not for me. For the Red Sox, perhaps.

Anonymous: Lance McCullers, you’ve said before you see him as a RP. Did he do anything this year to convince you he can stick in the rotation? Do you believe in the changeup?
Klaw: Three pitches are all there. Long arm action is tough to repeat and explains the below-average command.

ds: Music question – Have you listened to Wolf Alice before, your thoughts?
Klaw: Really liked it. Top ten album of the year for me.

Diana G: Any way to identify who may be a late blooming outlier like Arieta, Bautista, etc? Is it as simple as better coaching?
Klaw: Change of scenery, adding a pitch, tweaking a delivery or a swing, getting healthy, growing up … I try to tab some breakout guys every year, but those two you named were so completely out of nowhere that I didn’t see either one coming, and didn’t buy into Bautista for a while even after he was clearly a star.

Larry: Are you concerned with your cholesteral level? You seem to eat a lot of high-cholesteral foods, at least according to your Instragram
Klaw: My cholesterol is consistently in the 160-170 range, because genes play a big part in it. Also, I’m not a huge fan of food-scolds … it’s my body, I’ll eat whatever the hell I want to eat, and if it doesn’t affect you it’s not your business.

Corey: Darren O’Day looking for 4/$28m – 36 Soria too. With the trend to power pens, is either guy worth that sort of investment ?
Klaw: Neither, but Soria in particular seems nuts – he was borderline replacement level last year and his stuff is down. Teams have to see that, even with the Proven Closer tag.

Matt: I’m trying to eat healthier. What are some good vegetables to roast?
Klaw: Anything that isn’t leafy roasts well. I love to roast broccoli and cauliflower at 450, lightly oiled and salted, till brown and caramelized.

Eric: Maybe you can explain what the Braves are doing? I get “rebuilding” but trading players like Wood and Simmons seems a little odd for a rebuilding club. They were controlled for another 5 seasons.
Klaw: The Wood trade was about Olivera, whom I think Atlanta completely overrates. Simmons was about getting those two arms back (Newcomb and Ellis), and I think an underestimation of Simmons’ future offense. You named my two least favorite moves of their last twelve months.

Corey: Frazier’s rough 2nd half a red flag or a worthwhile trade target for higher end prospects ?
Klaw: I think it’s more fair to say that his huge first half was a fluke and not representative of a new true talent level. Still a good player and worth flipping a couple of prospects for.

Marco: I have read, and also believe, that Greinke will age really well because of the way he pitches, which can withstand declining stuff. Do you see Price the same way? He has 4 solid pitches….will he be able to work off of declining velocity over the next few seasons?
Klaw: I think Price has the intellect and the control to be highly effective even when his velocity drops, but it will require a greater adjustment for him than it will for Greinke.

Silv: Honest question: explain to me how Rich Hill, after a few months of the absolute definition of small sample size and totally inconsistent with his career numbers, gets 6MM guaranteed and David Carpenter, who was anywhere from pretty damned good to mediocre for the past three full seasons, is DFA’ed?
Klaw: Fair question. But if you watched those few starts, he did look like a completely different pitcher, and pitchers are more subject to those wild swings in value that Diana G asked about earlier than hitters are. I thought it was a good signing.

Master Pau: Does Eddy Martinez have star potential my friends think he is going to be a bust given he only signed for 3 million. Saying if he was a better prospect he would go for 10+ Million
Klaw: Something weird happened behind the scenes; I thought he had a $10 million deal with a specific club, yet it never came to fruition. He’s a potential star for me.

Craig: Does Javier Bentancourt project enough power to at least become a doubles guy or is he always going to project as a slap hitter?
Klaw: Line drive guy. Doubles but not homers. Can really play the heck out of 2b. Need to see who the two PTBNLs in the deal are to have a decent opinion on it though.

Larry: Brad Zimmer or Frazier?
Klaw: Zimmer.

Jake: Keith, I know you generally don’t like to use subjective measures in your evaluations, but don’t you think someone like Ortiz deserves some modicum of consideration based on matter that might be more subjective? I mean, isn’t the fact that it would be impossible to write the history of baseball from 2000-2015 without mention of Ortiz’s accomplishments, especially in the postseason?
Klaw: I assume the Hall (I haven’t been in decades) has exhibits on the various postseasons. Celebrate him there.

Steve: How do you expect Zobrist to age over a 4 year deal?
Klaw: Like a fine wine … that has been exposed to the wrong bacteria.

DodgerFan101: Do you think Pederson and DeLeon would be enough to land Shelby Miller?
Klaw: I don’t. I think it’s a good offer, though.

Ryan: At what age can I start reading to my daughter that would actually benefit her?
Klaw: I’ve been reading to my daughter since she was two. Back then I think she just liked having me in the bed with her before she went to sleep. Now of course she’s locked into the stories.

Archie: Are the Reds stretching out Finnegan to start? If not, would he make sense to close w/Chapman presumably being traded?
Klaw: He has to be a closer. Can’t start IMO.

James: Matt – your answer should be – Thank God we killed hundreds of thousands of Indians and Mexicans before the Internet.
Klaw: And then serve the popcorn course.

Corey: Benintendi ready by 2017, fast-tracked like Conforto ? And where would they put him – CF and move Betts to RF ?
Klaw: I’d treat him like the Cubs treated Schwarber. Leave him in CF, move him later when it becomes necessary. Might just end up trade bait, but he’s worth more as a proven CF in the minors.

Addoeh: Mmm, G.B.C.!
Klaw: No. Too much bread, and not even good bread, relative to everything else.

Fitz: Do you think Tony LaCava becomes GM long-term, or does Shapiro bring in someone external?
Klaw: I think they should keep him, but it sounds like they won’t. I saw a Josh Byrnes rumor this morning, which doesn’t make sense to me; I don’t see what he brings that Lacava doesn’t already provide, and Byrnes has had two poor experiences as GM already.

Jon: Keith, you talked in your Periscope chat yesterday about how it would be creepy to game with ballplayers. A friend of mine has suggested I game with you (I live in Lancaster) but it feels the same way to me, a little fanboyish maybe. Am I wrong?
Klaw: Not at all. I’ve played games with a couple of readers over the years. Also, I own the game Lancaster and haven’t played it. So let’s make that happen. I need some folks to help me test all these games to review!

Chris: I get the idea of listening on everyone, but not sure I understand trading Miller. Very reasonable contract, and I thought at the deadline last yr the Yanks were trying to ADD another top reliever a la KC
Klaw: Unless they think something’s wrong with him. Then I could understand it.

John: Freeman shouldn’t be off limits, right? Need to go full rebuild (given return value, of course)
Klaw: Right. In for a penny, in for a pound.

Adam Trask: What’s your Rx for getting more African-Americans into baseball?
Klaw: No easy answer to that. Have to make the game more accessible at the youth level, because kids who play it will be fans of it. But attending MLB games is prohibitively expensive for a wide swath of the population (of all races, of course), and that is going to lose a lot of fans to more affordable alternatives.

RBI, Wins, & Saves: Ah, HOF time, when the rest of the baseball world aside from you, Klaw, bows and worships at our feet! Did you see our new favorite HOF voter who included Smith, Hoffman, AND Wagner on his ballot? Now if we can only get Tommy John and Jim Kaat in through the Veterans Committee…
Klaw: I thought I was rid of you three when we left ESPN’s chat module.

Marco: Is it better to have a plus changeup or a plus breaking ball?
Klaw: Neither. It’s just good to have a plus offspeed pitch.

Alex: How do you split the oven time between the turkey and side dishes on Thanksgiving, without either getting cold?
Klaw: Turkey comes out, gets covered to keep the heat in, get the sides right in the oven. By the time the sides come out 30-40 minutes later the turkey is still hot and ready to slice. Also, I will serve a couple of room temp sides – the Caesar, the beet dish I have planned, the potato salad (served with a warm bacon-mustard dressing).

Addoeh: Never been to Cooperstown. Worth going once?
Klaw: The problem is it is located 80 miles from East Nowhere.

Jon: Keith, you mentioned yesterday about how you felt it would be creepy to game with ballplayers. Why do you think it would be different for you to invite readers to play?
Klaw: I am friendly with a bunch of players and was being somewhat facetious about that – I specifically said it would be creepy to be hanging out in the clubhouse playing a boardgame with them, mostly because I feel like the clubhouse is their place and I’m intruding.

Ron: Klaw, you seem to have a good sense of humor, but also some very progressive sensibilities. Which makes me curious how you feel about some of the “edgy” comics of today that are so successful – Amy Schumer, Louis CK, et. al. who are considered these comic geniuses, but also joke about language and topics that I would presume you do not have a sense of humor about.
Klaw: I know you’ve asked this before but I don’t have a great answer because I don’t know what material you mean. I have heard some of Louis C.K.’s stuff that was hilarious, and then I read about the allegations of harassment (Defamer had them earlier this year) and couldn’t call myself a fan any more.

Tom: Is Ahmed the best SS in the NL, now that Simmons is gone? If not, who is?
Klaw: Defensively? Probably Crawford. Speaking of whom, that contract he got seems to price in a little more power than I think you can reasonably expect from him going forward.

Jonny: How do you evaluate a guy like Ian Desmond? Do you write off the first half of 2015 as an aberration, and assume he’s one of the best SS in the game? Or do you assume he’s on a quick downward slide?
Klaw: Almost certainly better than he was in 2015, but I’d price him at some discount from the player I thought he was coming out of 2014. How much of a discount, I’m not sure. That’s a better question for an MLB analytics department.

Jay: Can you include overall (and optionally on the tools as well) grades with the prospect rankings? That would be a better reflection of value of the prospect than a relative ranking for a particular point in time which is dependent on the strength/weakness of other prospects.
Klaw: I won’t do that. I think they get misused and misinterpreted, and if I’m writing a couple of hundred words on each player I’d rather you read those than focus on a two-digit number.

John C: Most liberal scribe – you or Rob Neyer?
Klaw: I don’t know Rob’s politics. People who call me “liberal” are off base unless they mean the term in the classical sense, which today is somewhere closer to libertarian and combines ideas that are found on both sides of the center, from lower or less invasive taxation to social justice and equality.

Josh: Do you see Brandon Mauer being able to transition back into the rotation, or should the Pads keep him in the pen?
Klaw: Two pitch guy equals pen for me.

Bob: Thanks for the heads-up on the Ruhlman 20 special on Kindle… salting meat and eggs well ahead of time has already yielded some great results. Tried the short ribs… any suggestions on the next recipe to try in the book?
Klaw: Any of the duck recipes, especially the braised legs.

Paul Furlong: Then you are not eating Chicago Pizza!!!! Chicago pizza is like a pie crust. Not bread. Cheese and crust
Klaw: Pizza crust is bread. It’s yeast, water, flour, salt. That’s bread.

Archie: I know he’s still a few years away, but what do you think the Cubs do with Gleyber Torres? Trade bait?
Klaw: Two years out from that point, I think. Potential superstar whom I’d be loath to trade now for fear that I’d be selling too low, because he’s more potential than anything at this point. He’s wildly advanced for his age.

Anthony: Any thoughts on the Rangers/Mariners trade? I know it was minor, but Wilhelmsen is a nice add to a young, hard throwing bullpen. Possibly allows them to trade their “proven closer” for another piece or two.
Klaw: I’m also not much of a Martin fan – great defender who can’t hit. And I heard the PTBNL Texas is receiving is someone of value too.

Tom: You mentioned below that attending an MLB game is prohibitively expensive. I’ve always heard that ticket prices are not related to player salaries. So what drives it? Simply that MLB (and other pro sports) have found enough people to pay what they’re charging?
Klaw: Exactly (the latter). MLB teams are quasi-monopolists and set prices to maximize revenues. They don’t need the hoi polloi to attend games unless those folks are going to buy a lot of beer and food.

Brian: Could Swihart be the centerpiece of a trade for Jose Fernandez?
Klaw: In theory, yes. He’s good enough to be the centerpiece. Whether the Marlins would want him as such is something I don’t know.

alex: You mentioned that you saw Trey Mancini as a AAAA guy– what are the things that are holding him back– walk rate, etc? thanks
Klaw: Bad swing and lack of athleticism.

TJ: Had the conversation at work- what was your favorite Thanksgiving dish when you were a kid? Mine was the stuffing my mom made- loved it so much she had to make an extra side of it to keep me from devouring the turkey like a jackal…
Klaw: I’m Italian so Thanksgiving in my house always started with a pasta dish, usually baked ziti, which at the time I loved. I really don’t eat that kind of food any more, though.

James: Teheran and Newcomb to LA for Seager, who hangs up?
Klaw: Dodgers. They’re not trading him unless it’s for someone like Trout.

Oren: Will Gregory Polanco ever hit lefties?
Klaw: Yeah, i think he’s got tons of improvement ahead of him. That’s one guy I am not worried about (yet, I can always start worrying later).

Alex: Who will the Braves deal next? Do you think Jenkins, Sims, and Newcomb will play for Atlanta at some point this
Klaw: Sims and Jenkins might. Newcomb isn’t close to MLB ready yet. He’s not a sure thing IMO, although I know Atlanta loves him. Command isn’t there yet and it’s not something that they might fix with a delivery tweak.

Brandon: Assuming Boston needs pitching, what do you believe would have been fair return for Margot, Guerra, Asuaje, Allen? Short term control, 200-IP SP (i.e. Shelby Miller)? Mid-tier SP on undervalued contract (i.e. Julio Teheran, Jose Quintana)? All-star, non-arb eligible SP (i.e. Sonny Gray)?
Klaw: If I were Atlanta I would have jumped at that offer for Miller. Two potential impact everyday guys, a likely UT who might hit his way into regular status at 2b, and a quality 18-yo arm. Seems like a great return.

Roke: Have you played Twilight Struggle? I would think it would be right up your alley.
Klaw: No – I’m not really into games that typically take two hours or more.

Kay: Crazy for thinking Conforto will be more valuable than Schwarber, despite less power? He takes excellent at bats, have decent pop, and actually has a position. Schwarber has DH written all over him
Klaw: I think Schwarber is a LF in the long run, but Conforto will be a better defender and I’ll bet on him to have higher OBPs, whereas Schwarber will hit more homers. Not a crazy thought but I think it’s close.

michael: hi keith – saw ur comment re: power that you’re not sure we’ll be repeatable being priced into crawford’s sf contract. based upon that, do you think it’s a slight overpay or a massive overpay at $15M per FA season. The $5M and $8M salaries seemed in line with MLBTR’s arbitration estimates.
Klaw: Slight overpay. Defense should make the in years good value. Out years are what concern me.

Matt: International scouting – if a team like the Cubs or Dodgers goes big and then is out for 2 years, will they trim down the amount of international scouting staff they have? Or continue to deploy those same folks just to gather info for potential trades in the future since somebody is signing these guys?
Klaw: No because you scout guys down there starting at age 14 now. It’s the most incompetently designed system I can imagine.

Chris: Thoughts on Jon Gant and Rob Whalen? They seem like (at the least) useful relievers, which is a nice get for half-seasons of Uribe and Johnson.
Klaw: Yep, that’s about right.

JT: You mentioned Italian thanksgiving below. Ever had a pizelle? It’s a cookie my grandma makes dozens of every holiday season.
Klaw: Yes, I have. Never made them because you need a specialized iron for them and I don’t need more gadgets.

Jon: So assuming I start to feel OK about the whole idea of gaming with you, what’s the best way to contact you if I am not a social media user?
Klaw: Leave a comment anywhere on the dish with your email address. I’ll send you through the government’s vetting system and you’ll hear from me in 18 to 24 months.

Ray: Cody Bellinger – is he an org guy, every day regular, or future all star? 20+ HR power in that bat?
Klaw: i don’t think he’s a regular, or maybe I should say I didn’t, as even adjusting for league and park that’s a nice season for a 19-year-old in high-A. I believe he’s going to end up a full-time 1B, and he has to hit a lot more to be a regular there.

Jeff: Klaw, thanks for answering my question on Twitter re: whether or not you care if a HoF candidate has failed a drug test. Could you briefly expand on your answer, as far as how that information affects your ultimate conclusion? Do you treat players differently if one failed the “anonymous” testing and got outed, as opposed to someone who failed after the new drug policies were implemented?
Klaw: I think what I said was that I don’t care about PED usage in general. I treat all unfounded accusations as bullshit. A failed test is the one thing I might consider because it is within baseball – Bonds’ grand jury testimony was outside of the game’s jurisprudence and should never have become public anyway under federal (?) law, so I think it’s improper to consider it on two separate grounds. Palmeiro flunking a test is hard evidence, and for a player where I might be on the fence about voting for him, I’d consider it. But if a player never flunked a test, rumors and speculations are best flushed down the toilet.

Chris: Reasonable return for Aybar for Braves? Feel like they gotta flip him.
Klaw: He makes no sense for them and he isn’t even very good. One mid-tier prospect would be enough.

Kay: Why have teams moved away from using platoons? If you lack a star caliber player, I feel like you can combine a pair of useful guys into star level production by hiding their weaknesses.
Klaw: Having 12 pitchers on the roster means 13 hitters. In the AL, that’s four bench six spots, and one goes to the backup catcher, while another has to go to someone who can play short. Not much room for platoons. I agree with you that they’re really useful, but I’d also limit the bullpen to six guys and ensure that I had at least one long reliever at all times.

Rob: If the Yankees intent is to keep Sanchez, wouldn’t it make sense to begin giving him some reps at 1B to turn him into more of a Victor Martinez-type player, when he was younger. 50 games at catcher, 40 games at 1B (against lefties to sit Bird) 60 games at DH?.
Klaw: I agree and perhaps they’ll do that now, but I have a feeling that all of the hype now about him being better behind the plate – he was never as bad as reputed, and now he’s not as good as they claim – is an attempt to boost his trade value. He can hit and has power, and it’s a plus arm, but long-term he might not be a catcher at all.

Brad: Isan Diaz have huge upside with the bat?
Klaw: Huge upside? No.

Kyle: How does JBJ’s trade value compare to the returns for Martin and Hicks? Bit higher?
Klaw: More than Martin for sure. Maybe comparable to Hicks – Hicks has better tools overall, JBJ has a shorter period of big-league performance.

Chris Plouffe: Can Max Fried become an above average starter in your opinion, or is he headed to the pen?
Klaw: He’s been hurt for over a year with TJ. Let’s get him back on a mound first.

Jeff: Do you think a Jay Bruce for Zack Wheeler trade is equitable? I know it was discussed at the deadline and ended up not happening. But it could realistically come up again, once Cespedes leaves.
Klaw: If Wheeler is presumed healthy, that’s an inferior deal for the Mets’ side.

Fred: I know he gets a lot of hate for his defense, but what have you thought of Wilmer’s hitting so far in his MLB career? 20 HR 100 RBI guy?
Klaw: I think he’s going to hit – his OBPs are terrible to date, but he’s young, makes contact, has a good swing, and should eventually hit for enough average that his OBPs will end up respectable if never actually good. Not a shortstop, of course.

Tim: Atlanta still have Kevin Maitan lined up?
Klaw: I have answered this many times already. They have an agreement with him, but as it’s totally prohibited by MLB, if either side chooses to break it there’s no recourse. A player who signed a seven-figure deal this past July 2nd reneged on an agreement the day before and signed with another team that offered more money; there’s nothing the original team could do because their deal with the player wasn’t legal to begin with!

JD: Joe Musgrove seemed to move up some prospect rankings this year. I saw him last year in the NYP and he didn’t stand out. Has something changed? Did you see him last season?
Klaw: I think he moved up for people looking at the stat line. Control guy who got healthy but doesn’t have premium stuff.

Adam: You mentioned earlier that the Nats signing Heyward and moving Harper to CF makes them much better…….wouldnt Heyward be the better CF of the two?
Klaw: I think Harper would be, actually. Better runner. Both have great instincts.

Fred: I read such mixed scouting reports on Amed Rosario’s power potential. Some say its gap power, some say its HR power. What have you seen?
Klaw: HR power. He’s still just a baby. Lot of people will tell you Dom Smith doesn’t have HR power either. They are mistaken.

JWP: Would Dylan Bundy even make your top 100 now?
Klaw: Probably not, which is a damn shame. I said yesterday on the periscope that I wonder if he was just overworked so much in HS that he was going to break down no matter what.

Bob Pollard: What do you make of Jon Gray at this point? Can he succced in Colorado?
Klaw: I don’t like his stuff and lack of deception in that environment.

Max Footroom: How did everyone miss so big on Jesus Montero’s bat? It was supposed to be MLB ready years ago. I remember the hype when he was traded to Seattle and people were saying he was the perfect DH who will hit MLB pitching immediate and have 30+HR power. How did the evaluators en mass miss this one?
Klaw: Good question. I don’t see a single smoking gun here: He didn’t work hard at all, he didn’t stay in shape, he did eventually get nailed for PED usage. I got destroyed by Yankee fans one year for ranking him too low, then conceded that I was likely wrong and ended up ranking him too high the next year. BTW, he’s still just 26 this year and I think he carves out a career for himself.

Ray: Is Margot more of a gap power hitter than a HR hitter. How will his power play in SD?
Klaw: Yes, and I don’t think he gets to 15 HR a year as a Padre.

Adam: Wouldnt the Braves best bet be to unload Maybin now so you can play Bourn and Swish? Hope they have good first halves so you can unload them……even if you dont get anything back thats money off the payroll?
Klaw: I think the ship has sailed on both of those guys, unfortunately. They’re probably just dead money, especially Brohio there.

Jeremy: Would head coaching experience at the college level (at one of the major conference schools) be enough for you to hire someone as a major league manager, or is the job too different? Why don’t we see more college coaches making that kind of jump?
Klaw: The job is extremely different but I’d still count it as something. The games themselves are quite different as you’re not managing every day, rosters are different, bats are different, and of course they’re not professionals. But it’s still fundamentally the same sport.

Kingpin: No question, just want to say thanks again for continuing the chats in this format and here’s hoping the best Thanksgiving for you & your loved ones.
Klaw: You’re welcome, and thank you for the kind wishes. A very safe and Happy Thanksgiving to all of you as well; please eat to excess and, if you drink to excess too, stay off the roads. I will resume the chats the week after the holiday and will continue to post here and on ESPN.com in the interim, with a 2016 rule 4 draft preview going up tomorrow.

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→ November 18, 2015
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The Late George Apley.

I’m on a little run of past Pulitzer Prize for Fiction/the Novel winners right now, and just finished John Marquand’s extremely subtle satire The Late George Apley, which won the prize in 1938 when it was still only awarded to novels. The book is clearly a satire of the isolated, self-important life of the patrician class of the early 20th century, especially the so-called Boston Brahmins, but Marquand plays it so straight that I found myself vacillating through half the novel on just what parts he might have wanted readers to take seriously.

The book is a sort of fake biography/epistolary novel, where a longtime friend and former classmate of the title character has been asked by Apley’s family to write a private story of the man’s life, leaning heavily on his correspondence. The author (the fictional one, that is) traces Apley’s story back several generations, explaining the grand history of his family line within the United States, the first of many times when he tries to impress upon the reader the importance of the name. He gives us Apley’s birth and upbringing in a life of privilege and strict expectations, his attendance at the prestigious Groton School in Massachusetts (then all boys, now coed, which would have made for an amusing postscript to the book) and at some liberal arts college in Cambridge, and so forth, with every step already laid out for him by his imperious father and the constraints of polite society of the time. He falls in love with an Irish Catholic girl, is forced to end it when he’s shipped off for a Grand Tour, comes home, marries a woman of proper breeding, bangs out a couple of kids, and so on.

It’s a dull story in its own right, which is part of the point, and how dull becomes apparent in the latter half of the book when Apley’s son and daughter take advantage of the lax attitudes of the 1920s to live a little. Apley’s letters to and about his children seem increasingly ridiculous as the world changes around him – he’s still worried about the shrubbery around the family estate when the stock market is crashing – and only when he realizes he has a terminal heart condition does it dawn on him that life has passed him by. His final letters are reminiscent of Kazuo Ishiguro’s Remains of the Day was, full of regret without hope. Unlike the butler of Ishiguro’s novel, however, Apley’s heartbreak is darkly comic: He admits, not quite explicitly, that he should have sowed his wild oats when he was younger, gotten wasted more, gotten laid more, and told his parents to stuff it and married the girl he loved (she makes a brief cameo again at the end of the book).

I can understand why this would have won the Pulitzer in 1938, when I presume the board considering the candidates was all white males and this sort of American aristocracy was more prevalent in the culture. It didn’t resonate so much with me today, however; even though I went to that liberal arts school, the population was quite diverse ethnically and by gender, and they’ve since done quite a bit to improve the diversity of economic backgrounds too, making Apley’s experiences there seem as anachronistic as the semi-arranged marriage and emphasis on decorum and appearances. It’s an entertaining read, but it feels very dated today.

Next up: Michael Shaara’s 1974 Pulitzer winner The Killer Angels ($6 in paperback!), a novel of the Battle of Gettysburg that was adapted into the four-hour movie Gettysburg in 199.
ppu

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→ November 17, 2015
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Art Angels.

My column on my NL Rookie of the Year ballot is up for Insiders.

Grimes’ Art Angels (buy on amazon or iTunes) is the best album of 2015, and the best album I’ve heard since alt-J’s 2012 debut An Awesome Wave. Canadian singer/songwriter/multi-instrumentalist Claire Boucher, who records under the pseudonym Grimes, has created a masterful indie-pop performance that transcends genres and incorporates wildly diverse sounds into a cohesive, intelligent offering that never lets up from the ninety-second opener to the final song’s declaration of independence.

Grimes’ third album, 2012’s Visions, brought her substantial critical acclaim, notably for the singles “Genesis” and “Oblivion,” which received plenty of airplay on alternative radio and led to multiple recommendations from many of you, but I couldn’t get past the juvenile sound of her high-register vocals and the electropop leanings of the music. Grimes has ditched GarageBand, which she used to record much of that last album, for more sophisticated digital audio workstation software, and it is reflected in the worldliness of the music itself. The maturation process from there to Art Angels was, by all accounts, arduous, including an entire album that Grimes scrapped, the one-off single “Go” (rejected by Rihanna’s people, because I guess her people are idiots), and the song “REALiTi,” which survived the trashing of the lost album and reappears here in a more polished form. This is the Grimes album with vision, delivering rather than promising, with marked increases in the sophistication of her music and her lyrics.

After that brief intro track, Grimes delivers the first of many surprises on the album with “California,” a sunny track that gives off the illusion of an acoustic or folk-rock song, but is largely electronic and hides a dark, cynical take on the record industry through a metonymical use of the state to represent the entertainment industry. (Grimes has spoken publicly before about how the mainstream record industry does not, in her view, treat indie artists well.) From that luminous track we downshift into the album’s darkest song, “Scream,” with all lyrics courtesy of the female Taiwanese rapper Aristophanes, who raps entirely in Mandarin with a menacing, breathy delivery that matches the funereal music beneath her. If you’ve survived this hairpin turn, you’ve gotten the hang of Art Angels, which refuses to choose a single direction yet manages to squeeze a panoply of styles into a single tent.

Lead single “Flesh Without Blood” is the most traditional song on the record in both its structure and the melodic nature of the vocals, but would still jar listeners to straight pop stations if it came on after the latest four minutes’ hate from OneRepublic. “Kill v. Maim” and “Venus Fly” both show Grimes asserting her individuality and particular brand of feminism, with the former seeing her voice as high as it gets on the album, which is fine with me as I think she starts to sound very young at the top end of her range, although here it also seems like an allusion to J-pop traditions and is interspersed with the occasional death-metal scream. “Venus Fly” features vocals from Janelle Monáe, who will appear on your album if you just remember to include a self-addressed stamped envelope, in an articulate rant about how women in music are judged on their appearances, with a number of lines that sound like they should end in “boy” if you’ve been reared on vapid, modern pop music.

The title track is a real sleeper, the kind of song Daft Punk tried and failed to craft on their Grammy-winning album Random Access Memories, between the funk-guitar riff and the layered synthesized drum lines, with lyrics that express her love for her adopted home city of Montréal. I might be alone in preferring the raw demo version of “REALiTi” we got back in the spring, where her vocals were more seductive even when she veered on the edge of falsetto; although the current version maintains the basic hook of the original, her vocals are honed to a finer point, excising the demo’s dreamlike quality.

Grimes’ lyrics have improved enormously over the last three years, with greater use of metaphor and new phrasings, with very few lines that clunk enough to detract from the songs as a whole. (“California” does have a line about how certain music “sounds just like my soul;” I’m not sure I’ve ever heard a song lyric using the word “soul” in a secular or metaphorical sense that didn’t sound like something from a teenager’s poetry notebook.) She’s covering a ton of thematic ground here, but they’re all tied together under the banner of the experiences of a woman in a male-dominated industry that is rife with sexism, harassment, and superficial judgments. When the slightly saccharine closer, “Butterfly,” concludes with Grimes’ assertion that she’ll “never be your dream girl,” it’s clear she’s both refusing to bend herself to be what someone else wants and saying that the song’s target isn’t worthy of her time. It’s a compulsive listen without a dud to be found, with so many changes in musical direction that she grabs your attention from the start and holds it, rapt, until she tells you to kiss off in the closing track. It’s an album that demands repeated listening.

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→ November 16, 2015
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A Summons to Memphis.

My NL ROY ballot will go up tonight for Insiders, once the winner is announced; my last post over on that other site is on the Craig Kimbrel trade. My favorite comments so far have been tweets telling me I’m wrong, from people (at least three) who haven’t actually read the article. Yay Internet.

While working my way through the list of winners of the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction (until 1948 the Pulitzer Prize for the Novel), I’ve been somewhat surprised at how few winners have remained actively read books over the years. Some of the winners were duds, and only a handful made my own top 100 list, but the majority have at least been good books – above-average novels, at least, which should be enough to keep them around; perhaps it’s just the flood of new titles that pushes them off of the mainstream reader’s radar. Peter Taylor’s 1987 novel A Summons to Memphis is one of these – a good novel, amusing and serious, distinctly American in theme and outlook, enough that I’d recommend it but wouldn’t put it on my own rankings.

The narrator, Phillip Carver, gets the titular summons from his two spinster sisters because their widowed father, now 81, plans to marry again, to a somewhat younger woman, which of course raises questions of inheritance as well as of public perceptions. The sisters are comic entities in themselves – virginal in fact and in behavior, as if their emotional development stopped at age 15 while their bodies continued to swell to near-obesity in their fifties – while Phillip, more put together, has also never married, bearing the same scars as his sisters do from the traumatic move of their childhood. When their father was caught up in a scandal in Nashville, he had to move the family to Memphis and restart his career, uprooting them all, including their mother and another brother who later died in World War II, from the comfortable life they knew in the genteel city that sounds like Margaret Mitchell would have approved of it. Memphis is depicted as rougher, déclassé, foreign to the family, with each of the three children having to give up a potential marriage somewhere along the way due to their father’s disapproval or outright meddling. Although the novel opens with the summons, Phillip doesn’t make the actual trip to Memphis – the first of several, as it turns out – until about two-thirds of the way through the novel, after he’s told the reader of his childhood and the lost loves of the three siblings via a series of flashbacks.

There’s an element of King Lear in this book, although it’s not as explicit as the allusion made in a later Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, the torpid A Thousand Acres. King Lear had three daughters, two of whom earn his favor through false flattery with an eye toward increasing their inheritance at their sisters’ expenses, but Lear descends into madness in his old age and the infighting between the siblings leads to … well, it’s a tragedy by Shakespeare, so you know they all die. A Summons to Memphis relies instead on emotional violence: the father wrecked the lives of his children, especially the sisters, so they have now come around to wreck what remains of his by blocking his attempt to marry again. Phillip, the one child who moved away from Tennessee and thus has escaped somewhat unscathed (a slight parallel to Cordelia, especially as both characters are reserved when discussing their emotions), ends up the one with some semblance of a thawing of his relationship with their father, even as the girls continue to plot their revenge to the bitter end.

The move a few hundred miles west, without even crossing state lines, seems to underscore the extent of the betrayal by the father’s business partner, who engineered the kind of financial scam that will never go out of style; while the elder Mr. Carver was cleared of any wrongdoing, it seems that he was unable to escape the shame in his own mind of his involvement, and, more importantly, of the fact that a man he considered his best friend was capable of such treason. This one event fractured their life as a family twice – once when he relocated the whole unit, including their servants, to Memphis; then again, when he exerts his authority over each family member to bend them to his will. So many individual moments and elements of the book are humorous, but the overall effect is one of deep emotional scarring.

I looked to see if any critics inferred the Lear comparison, and one of the greatest living American novelists, Marilynne Robinson, did just that in her 1986 review of the novel for the NY Times. Robinson, author of Housekeeping and the three related books that began with her own Pulitzer winner, Gilead, is a master of words and of characterization, so if she agrees with me on something, I view that as an enormous validation.

Next up: Another forgotten winner of the Pulizter, John P. Marquard’s 1938 satire The Late George Apley.

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→ November 14, 2015
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Saturday five, 11/14/15.

I have analyses up for Insiders on the Aaron Hicks-John Ryan Murphy trade, the Andrelton Simmons trade, and the Craig Kimbrel trade. I also held my weekly Klawchat here on the dish.

My various offseason buyers’ guides all went up this week:
• Catchers
• Corner infielders
• Middle infielders
• Outfielders
• Starting pitchers
• Relief pitchers

Plus, you all saw my ranking of my all-time favorite boardgames, right?

And now, the links…

  • One of the bigger surprises on Art Angels, the outstanding new album from Grimes (née Claire Boucher), is the presence of the female Taiwanese rapper who goes by the name Aristophanes. Fader has a little more info on her with some Soundcloud links.
  • The Atlantic has a good review of Art Angels that talks about Grimes’ emerging fame and choice of musical direction. I’ll try to get a review of the album up early next week.
  • Public schools in Louisiana are teaching kids Christianity and creationism, a blatant violation of federal law and of the students’ rights.
  • The New Yorker has an excellent piece up on using “free speech” to distract from discussions of racism, focusing on the protests at Yale and the University of Missouri. The Yale controversy has seemed particularly easy to parse to me: You don’t get to go around in blackface in a closed environment and then claim you’re exercising your free speech rights. You get expelled.
  • Pennsylvania has the second-worst student immunization rate in the nation, but there are bills pending in their legislature to end the “philosophical exemption” (that is, the opt-out for parents too stupid to understand basic science), while the state’s departments of health and education are working to end the “grace period” that allows kids to attend school before they’ve gotten all their shots. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette‘s editorial board supports these moves, as do I, not least because the state of Delaware told me building a border wall was too expensive.
  • Doctors need to do a better job of encouraging parents to give their kids the HPV vaccine, according to Aaron Carroll, Professor of Pediatrics at Kyle Schwarber’s alma mater (well, technically at IU’s Medical School). The problem, in Carroll’s view, is that it touches on ignorance about vaccines as well as the dirty dirty subject of teens having sex.
  • J. Kenji Lopez-Alt talked to NPR’s Here and Now, and the resulting interview includes three recipes from his new cookbook The Food Lab: Better Home Cooking Through Science.
  • The BBC has a quirky story up on a brand-new record store in Ulan Bator, the capital of Mongolia. And if all you know of Mongolia is “Mongolian barbecue,” well, that’s Taiwanese, sorry.
  • Last week’s links included a story on Elizabeth Holmes, the Stanford dropout whose blood-testing startup Theranos may have lied about its product’s capabilities. The Washington Post has a story on how the NY Times erased Holmes from a story on tech heroes, as well as failing to discuss a potential conflict of interest by that story’s author.
  • This story by a pro-science skeptical blogger about an vaccine-denier nut job is a bit inside-baseball, as the saying goes, but highly amusing.
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→ November 12, 2015
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Klawchat 11/12/15.

My analysis of the Yanks/Twins trade is up for Insiders, as is my buyers’ guide to starting pitchers. As always, questions go in the box here, not in the comments. Thanks!

Klaw: If there’s a new way, I’ll be the first in line. Klawchat.

Brandon: What do the Angels have to give up to land Tehran? Seems like a GREAT buy low guy.
Klaw: What do they have to go get anyone other than Newcomb? System is very thin and much of what’s good is so far away that the trade value is limited.

Nick: What type of ceiling offensively do you see for Conforto?
Klaw: .300+ average, 20 or so HR, high high OBPs. I think he’s a hell of a hitter.

Kevin: What do you think of the return the Padres got for Benoit? Is Nelson Ward a legit SS prospect?
Klaw: Very meh. Ward played six games at short all year, by the way. He’s a 2b.

James: How ridiculous is Simmons not winning the gold glove?
Klaw: Almost as ridiculous as caring about the Gold Gloves. I gave up on them.

Patrick: What’s keeping Christian Colon from being an everyday 2nd baseman? Not consistent enough stick?
Klaw: Yes. Although those high-contact no-power guys often hit their way into more regular playing time.

John: Is Herrera a reasonable upgrade at 2B for the Mets?
Klaw: I think so; what I saw of him in the minors told me he’d be an above-average defender at 2b, but he was erratic in the majors when he played there.

Dan: Not a question, but want to point out to those that call you arrogant that you listed Schilling on your fake HOF ballot. You personally oppose many of his viewpoints (and have had repercussions because of it) yet you are able to put that aside and recognize his accomplishments.
Klaw: I appreciate that, but people who call me this or that aren’t going to change their opinions based on facts because their original opinions weren’t based on facts either.

Addoeh: So no Math 55?
Klaw: Math 21 (multivariate calc with vectors) was it for me. I regret it – I would have enjoyed more math classes but felt burned out on math after HS and didn’t fully grasp what other areas of math (e.g., number theory, topology,, statistics) were out there to study.

Marshall: Speaking of political philosophy, can you recall a presidential primary so devoid of facts as what we have seen thus far on the Republican side?
Klaw: Are any of them ever built around facts? It’s more rhetoric and sound bytes, right?

Jason: Are the Braves truly and honestly rebuilding? Or is there a sense that Liberty Media is in cost cutting mode and mandating some of these trades?
Klaw: They’re rebuilding. I have talked to lots of folks there and no one has said anything about ownership mandating cost cutting.

Sean: 50 games for smoking pot? That has to be one of the most ridiculous things I’ve heard in a long time.
Klaw: And only for minor leaguers. I don’t get why MLB wanted it, or why the MLBPA signed off on it. If they want to come down harder on cocaine, I’d be fine with that – use that and you’re a serious danger to yourself and possibly your teammates, and it can clearly affect your performance negatively. Marijuana? Not so much. And it’s increasingly legal across the states.

Owen (London): What actually gets asked in managerial interviews ? Are GMs and owners looking for dazzling examples of in-game acumen or are they sounding out guys who agree to give good copy and toe the line ? In other words, what magic sentence did Dusty utter to land the gig ? I’m still baffled.
Klaw: I don’t know what exactly is asked, but a lot of those interviews are just eyewash – they’ve already decided who they want to hire, but have to go through the process for everyone else to see it. I do know a few clubs who ask very specific questions on tactics or on developing players, and I think those folks – Tampa Bay is one certain example – get better results.

Todd: Hardest class you took at Harvard?
Klaw: Never took anything that hard (partly my fault; I didn’t exactly seek out the challenges) but had some that were so excruciatingly boring that I didn’t fare so well. I remember a government (political philosophy) class my freshman year where we had to read the classics of the field – Locke, Rousseau, Mill, Huntington – and for the first and only time in my life, I hated reading.

Scott Upham: Alex Meyer had a trying season in 2015 (being polite). What is his future outlook – closer/reliever or starter?
Klaw: Has to be reliever at least for now.

Pat: Lot of angst about giving up Shelby Miller for Heyward, but what people don’t understand is that Heyward now understands what is means to play for the Cardinals. That has to go a long way in getting a hometown discount. Can you see the Cards getting him and a front line starter like Price if both take a little less to win?
Klaw: Hometown discounts don’t exist, and also, it’s not his hometown – Atlanta is, more or less. And by the way, players can get full freight and still go to a winner. It’s not like Heyward would sign with, say, Boston or the Yankees and never sniff the playoffs again.

Marshall: Adam Brett Walker has immense power, but horrid OBP skills – given his age is there much precedent in him developing that ability enough to be a useful MLB player?
Klaw: I can’t think of an example of one. He’ll get an opportunity, but he won’t succeed barring a huge change in approach.

Sam: Do you think Kelby Tomlinson has the tools to play the outfield as the Giants hope?
Klaw: No, nor do I think he’ll hit enough to play every day.

Jay: Chris Young a perfect Schwarber caddy?
Klaw: Yes, but I wouldn’t want to platoon Schwarber – let him face lefties and learn to hit them.

Jason: Keith, did you see Jacoby Jones in the AFL? What do you think is his ultimate position, IF, OF, or both in some kind of UT?
Klaw: Utility only. Don’t think he’ll hit enough to play anywhere every day. And not a shortstop at all.

Archibald Meatpants: How do most scouts weight fastball velocity vs. fastball movement/command when evaluating pitchers? Just asking, because there are some guys in the upper 90s who seem to get smashed, while other guys really make 91-93 play up.
Klaw: Should be two separate categories. You can have an 80 fastball with 30 life. Seriously, you can have it, because I don’t want it.

Todd Benzinger: Would a Betts for Thor trade work for both sides?
Klaw: That’s a lot better although I’d still rather have Betts.

Glen: Is Ian Clarkin going to turn into a decent starting pitcher?
Klaw: If healthy, he should. Still has the size and the breaking ball. Arm actually works fine. Pitching is brutal, man.

Matt: Would you really consider the White Sox having a “surplus of pitching”? Outside of Sale/Quintana/Rodon there isn’t much quality there, right?
Klaw: When I was doing the starting pitcher trade targets today, one thing became pretty obvious: No one has a surplus of pitching, really. Even the Mets are five deep and only five deep. If someone – I’m not even saying a name, not that I believe in such woo but I don’t want to seem like i’m wishing for it – there gets hurt, who steps in? They’ve traded any possible fill-in starter who was close.

Moose: Is Christian Arroyo for real? MLB comp?
Klaw: Can hit, not a shortstop.

Scarface Joe: What kind of package is Chapman going to bring back? He’s dominant, but it’s one year for a reliever. Who’s the team that pays up for that?
Klaw: Dombrowski? Has to be a team with an ardent desire to win now and willingness to move prospects for immediate value.

mike: Haven’t heard the Russell hot rumor but what dj you think about a quintana for baez package?
Klaw: I would want a little more for the White Sox there. Baez has a very high beta – still a good chance he’s not even a regular. Quintana’s very good and cheap.

Flaming Buns: Let’s say Gray and Sale are truly unavailable. Who’s the most logical young #1 starter target for Boston? Carrasco, Ross, Archer?
Klaw: Carrasco. Not saying he’s AVAILABLE, but that I think they’d listen to a rich offer. That’s a guy I’d go after with Swihart.

Tyler: Did you get a look at Manaea in AZ? Possibility for a midseason call-up?
Klaw: Yes. Better than I’d seen him in July. Check my AFL blog posts for more details.

Ken Rosenthal: Benoit to M’s
Klaw: I had this written for the buyers’ guide for tomorrow (and will now be taking it out of the piece): Benoit is a “good when healthy” guy, although even that underrates him a little since he’s thrown at least 54 innings in six straight seasons, just missing most of the last six weeks of 2014. The Padres picked up his $7.5 million option for 2016, which seems awfully steep for a guy who might be worth a win above replacement if he throws 65 innings, but they may also have figured he has some trade value if they agree to pay a third or so of his salary. He’ll show three above-average pitches, with the changeup plus, and was in the top dozen relievers in the majors for contact rate (according to Fangraphs) in 2015. He’s 38 with quite a bit of mileage on him, but would be an upgrade for a lot of teams in the 8th inning.

Ryan: How would you vote with the 10 person limit? Do you just pick the best 10 or do you try to “game” the system and leave off the sure thing to get some other guys in there?
Klaw: Ten best guys because I think that’s the mandate. I don’t like gaming the system even though the system is a bad joke.

JA: What do you think of Baggarly’s proposed trade of Maybin and Teheran for Pagan, Strickland, Beede, and Williamson?
Klaw: Don’t like it for Atlanta. Beede’s value has dropped with his velocity as he’s now a sinkerballer with poor control.

Glen: Thoughts on Mateo possibly moving to 2nd base?
Klaw: Don’t get it – thought he had at least average defender potential at short, maybe more. Certainly fast enough to play anywhere on the field.

Roddy: I truly believe the White Sox are going to surprise people next year. With a surplus of pitching do you see them moving Quintana? Hot rumor is a trade with the Cubs for Russell to replace Alexei.
Klaw: That’s a hot rumor that makes no sense for the Cubs.

Michael: Is the contract Heyward gets a sort of litmus test for how far sabermetrics have come in front offices? It seems like 10 years ago, he would have been way undervalued.
Klaw: I agree … and I agree.

Joshua: Swihart to Nats for Reynaldo Lopez? Start to a discussion, or a complete hang up?
Klaw: Nowhere near enough for Swihart. I think Lopez is more likely to end up in the pen.

Bruce K: My son is 12 years old and a high level reader. It is tough to find books that challenge him that are still age appropriate. Do you have any suggestions?
Klaw: Running into similar trouble with my daughter. Have you tried Fforde’s Last Dragonslayer? That’s a series now, and the vocab is appropriate.

Tyler: Did the Hall Board reject the increase from 10 to 12 names on the ballot as a backdoor way to make it more difficult for PED guys to get in? Otherwise, I don’t get the “not the right time” talking point.
Klaw: There is no question in my mind that that was their intent. All the more reason for us to vote for Bonds and Clemens!

Chris: Any favorite slow cooker recipes?
Klaw: All questions allowed. Still a big fan of throwing a pork shoulder in there for carnitas. Also love short ribs with dried figs and a bright red wine.

Jack: Just curious, at what point after posting a question should I assume that specific one won’t be answered – 5 minutes or so?
Klaw: I could probably stop taking questions now and be set for the rest of the hour. I see all the questions but can’t possibly answer them all. Sorry.

Georgia: Even taking away the “I won’t vote for him first year” crowd, how does a HOF candidate go from 55% to 75% over a few years? Are voters not taking it seriously? If you think Raines is a HOF guy, or not, it shouldn’t change much this year to next.
Klaw: But it does/has over history. The process is awful, and it allows for way too much wanking by the voters over their own ballots. Part of me would like to get that ten years in and get the ballot. Part of me would like to drive the bulldozer that razes the building to the ground.

Mark in Toronto: Have your thoughts on Rowdy Tellez’s chances changed?
Klaw: You’d know the answer if you read my AFL posts…

Chris: Would you trade Swihart for pitching assuming Vasquez comes back?
Klaw: Yes, if the pitching was high-end enough. I think Swihart has a chance to be a star too, a plus defensive catcher who hits. It may take time to get to that value, and that is the only reason I’d be willing to discuss moving him.

Bob Pollard: Max Kepler – star or just a guy?
Klaw: Chance for a star.

Andy: What are the chances of Bagwell getting into the Hall on this years ballot?
Klaw: I think Piazza and Junior – who, by the way, was well-known within the industry as an unpleasant person (I’m being kind) while he was a player, yet is revered by fans who revile other players of higher character – get in, and Bagwell makes a big move up. Raines is the one who worries me most – he needs a big jump this year to get in spitting distance for the final-year bump.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Percentage of GM Speak we should believe: 18%. Over or Under?
Klaw: Under. They have little incentive to tell us the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

Michael: A lot of Yankee blogs suggest Gary Sanchez has matured–apparently he had a kid. Is that not what you’re hearing or are you basing your opinion on old reports?
Klaw: If they reported he had a kid I’m sure that’s true. I just saw the guy play in the AFL a few weeks ago, so “old reports” doesn’t apply here.

Haymaker: Cubs and Royals are apparently asking Boston about Jackie Bradley, Jr. Do you think his bat will play at the Big League level long-term? Also, what is your best guess as to what it would take from the Cubs to entice Boston to move him (based on your knowledge of both systems/needs)?
Klaw: I think it’ll play, without much power. He’s better when he stays short to the ball and uses the opposite field. When he gets long to try to hit the ball out, the strikeouts pile up. Maybe eventually he can do it all at the same time, but I haven’t seen any of that from him.

Scott Upham: Which current minor leaguers resemble the Mike Trout- / George Springer / Mookie Betts multi-tool profile?
Klaw: Benintendi has a lot of that – CF, run/power combo, people love the feel to hit, although he doesn’t have the explosive speed of the guys you mentioned. Lewis Brinson comes to mind too.

Gary: I’ve scene you review a lot of sci-fi novels. Have you ever read Asimov’s Foundation trilogy? If so, thoughts? I’m getting ready to start Foundation.
Klaw: Read it in HS and loved it. Books 4 and 5 started to slip and I never read the books in the series by other authors.

Michael: What would you realistically do if Mike Trout did what Jose Reyes allegedly did? Would you actually release or trade the best player?
Klaw: I’d trade him, yes. Or I’d quit. But you all know I’m weird like that.

Jake: Would the Padres look to deal Ian Kennedy if he accepts their QO?
Klaw: They can’t until June 15th.

Alex in Austin: Aoki’s $5.5M option seemed like a given. Instead Giants buy it out for $700k? If you exercise, at worst is that not a tradeable asset?
Klaw: Probably a tick overpriced given age/health concerns (just in the sense that he’s probably not a 140-150 game player). But salaries are moving up so fast that it could end up seeming like fair value by February.

Mike P.: Would you move Giles no matter what? Or only if blown away? And what would it take to be blown away?
Klaw: He’s in tomorrow’s buyers’ guide post. Only if blown away.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Can the Nats actually expect to field a lineup that has Taylor, Ramos and Escobar/Espinosa and expect to compete?
Klaw: I have a feeling, based on nothing but my own gut, that they’ll do something in CF. Can’t see them running Taylor’s bat out there every day.

Tim: Did you care for the new Grimes album? Any standouts?
Klaw: Loved it – one of the best of the year. Flesh Without Blood, California, the new version of REALiTi, the title track, Venus Fly all great.

Archie: I know you mentioned him in your write up, but do you think Kepler starts Opening Day now that Hicks is gone?
Klaw: I think he’s ready, and he’s already on the 40-man, and this is the team that pushed Hicks to the majors before he was fully ready (so it’s not like they’re wildly service-time conscious). I think there’s a decent chance, at least.

Bob: Thanks for the board game list. However, I’m suffering form information overload here. My wife dislikes board games because I’m too competitive or they’re too complicated. Knowledge-based games are no good because I know so much strange stuff. Therefore, we haven’t played a new game since Trivial Pursuit. Thoughts on a good two-person game that might bridge the gap?
Klaw: I put a list of the best two-player games below the main list. Start at the top of that and work your way down…

Scott Upham: With Hicks now a Yankee, who is the odd men out in Minnesota’s OF between Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Arcia et al
Klaw: I think Rosario is probably out, and I would guess Arcia is/ends up on the outside too. A lot depends on whether Sano can handle an outfield corner.

Justin (DC): Love the board game lists. I didn’t see much turnover this year over last year though. I think Broom Service at 17 was the highest new board game. Quiet year, or just the best games are already out there?
Klaw: That’s correct. Broom Service won the Kennerspiel des Jahres, so I’m not alone in thinking it was the best of the year. Nothing came along like Splendor to upend the whole market.

Mike: Mark Simon wrote an article today about a hypothetical Mookie Betts for Matt Harvey swap. Good deal for both sides?
Klaw: I’m not dealing five years of Betts for three of Harvey.

Tim: Noticed you didn’t include Jay Bruce in your outfielders offseason guide. Is his value (with the option) so low that trading him wouldn’t get the Reds a decent (#75-100) prospect in return?
Klaw: He might – those guides aren’t supposed to name every single player who might be traded. I pick a few I find interesting/likely but I will miss a few who get moved.

Busty Daker: What do you think the Dodgers would realistically have to give up to make a Simmons trade happen?
Klaw: I’ve talked to a few folks in Boca who said the Simmons stuff is overblown – everyone’s talking every player, but unless Atlanta gets blown away, he’s probably not going anywhere. His contract is so cheap they really can ask for the sun and the moon – Seager and DeLeon too much? OK, we’ll keep Simmons instead. Thanks.

Michael: Do teams use advanced stats from minor league games or is evaluation 100% based on scouting?
Klaw: Lots of advanced analysis on minor league data going on.

Marshall: A team like Detroit seems to be stuck in a sort of purgatory – not going to win their division, not many good prospects, aging players signed to long contracts. Do they keep spending until the wheels fall off of Miggy, or make everyone (including Miggy) available right now?
Klaw: Sounds like they’ll spend to patch the major-league roster now while slowly trying to build the system back up. Dombrowski viewed the farm strictly as currency for trades. Avila views it as a real farm system, one that should produce players for the major-league roster too.

JA: Would you buy low on Doug Fister? Do you believe he can be a quality starter in the rotation again?
Klaw: I would, but recognize the risk. You could get him and he posts a 6 ERA by mid-May and you have to release him. It’s not likely but it is a nonzero probability outcome.

Geoff: What can you tell us hopeless Rockies fans about Antonio Senzatela? He doesn’t seem to get mentioned with the other promising arms in the system but his stats suggest he should.
Klaw: I had him 14th in their system going into the year. Strike-thrower without great stuff, needs a better swing-and-miss offspeed pitch.

Tom: White Sox do have a pretty decent “surplus” of pitching prospects, no?
Klaw: They do? I’m not sure anyone really has that right now, but I don’t think the White Sox do. Houston would have a good argument that they have the biggest collection of potential SP prospects.

Rich: Another thank you for the board game list, specifically the mention of the games for which quality apps are available. I can’t decide if having my books and games on my iPad is progress, or something else, though.
Klaw: I do both – apps and physical games, dead trees and ebooks. Sometimes the ebook is just cheaper. And you can’t exactly bust out Stone Age on the plane.

Bob: When Houston tanked a couple of years ago, did they build up the farm system through the draft or through trading vets for prospects or a combo? My real question is if it’s really possible in this environment to significantly upgrade your farm system through trades?
Klaw: Both. They picked first overall three straight years. They hit on a handful of lower-round picks. They traded sharply. It’s a model for other teams – not THE model, but A model that works if you have the right personnel in your front office and on your scouting staffs.

chris: read that the yankees should sign heyward, where exactly would he fit in with that roster? nobody will take beltran to ellsbury
Klaw: Beltran’s got a year left, so that’s just dead money they could even release. Ellsbury is harder to figure – is he a sunk cost at this point? Could they swap him for a bad pitching contract?

Barry. Florida: Would you describe yourself as a progressive or libertarian?
Klaw: Probably neither. I just am.

John: How far away is Dom Smith?
Klaw: Figure he starts at Binghamton, and if he does what I expect, finishes in triple-A and could make his debut as early as September but more likely next year.

Rob: Do you think you’re going to try Pandemic Legacy, or does that concept not really appeal to you? You ranked Pandemic highly and PL is zooming up the BGG charts.
Klaw: Don’t like the concept of destroying the board. Plus the idea of playing a single game 15 or 20 straight times … have you seen my collection? Not happening. The BGG charts are useful but often bonkers. Lots of 3-4 hour games all over the top of their rankings. Those are not my people.

Chris: Would you tender Ruben Tejada at $2M or so? Read something about Mets considering just going w/ Reynolds and Flores next year. That wreaks of cheapness, to me.
Klaw: Feel like you could tender and trade him. That’s peanuts for a second-tier starter/good UT.

Andrew: Does the Astros IF future have Bregman at SS and Correa at 3B?
Klaw: Doubt it. Correa’s a better defender than Bregman.

Jack: Any update on Nimmo? Feels like he isn’t really progressing. Is he a 4th OF?
Klaw: Yes, I’m in that camp now. Gave him a lot of chances, but can’t play CF and has too little power/doesn’t hit LHP well enough for a corner.

Sam: Should I be concerned that mets prospects seem too far away. By the time they are producing, pitching will be close to free agency.
Klaw: I agree. It was the price of those big acquisitions this summer.

sam: I know the thought of a 6 man rotation seems ridiculous, especially given the diminishing return of a 6th starter, but given all the injury concerns for the Yanks (& Severino’s awkward delivery & small frame), would you try it if you were them to try to keep all 6 as fresh & productive as possible? That way, if one breaks down 2 months into the season, you still have a 5 man rotation that’s had its innings reduced for 1/3 the season.
Klaw: Someone’s going to try it soon. I think we’re coming up on an era of experimentation with the whole pitching paradigm. The Rays had three starters in 2015 who were twice-through-the-order guys. Maybe someone goes with a 4-man rotation where no one ever faces more than 18 batters?

Ryan: Reading Lance Lynn knew there was something wrong in June but refused the idea of surgery. He went on to have a pretty poor September and was a non factor in the playoffs. At what point is it the player’s responsibility to recognize you are injured and stop trying to tough it out?
Klaw: Maybe he thought he was helping the team … I agree that players should speak up when hurt but don’t like the idea of criticizing a player for trying to stay on the field.

Marshall: KLaw you raise a salient point, people act as if there is A singular model to building a team. In the end, the teams that most accurately judge and and acquire talent are the teams that win. In a lot of cases that ability is not something that can continually be sustained over the long haul.
Klaw: For example, what Kansas City just did probably isn’t replicable. It took them nearly a decade to win the WS – not criticizing them, BTW – and they had to have so much go right the last two years, in terms of players all developing at the same time, maxing out returns on major trades (the Greinke deal went from “okay” to “holy crap arrest Dayton Moore for larceny”), and key guys staying healthy. You can’t just put that in a business plan.

Johnny: Where the hell has Top Chef been??
Klaw: December 2nd return. Can’t wait.

Chris: Ugh just remembering the Mets traded Meisner for Clippard AND Robles was probably more effective down stretch is nauseating. How could a club give Clippard more than a year in FA?
Klaw: I wouldn’t – that’s why I didn’t list him on my top 50. Everything pointed down for him in the first half; that’s why there wasn’t much of a market for him until the Mets showed up.

Tom: With your characterization of Griffey below, is the lesson to be learned between him and Bonds is that, if you’re going to be a jerk, don’t do it where the public can see you?
Klaw: No question.

Steve: Hi Keith. A difficult question to answer, I’m sure, but here goes. I’m married to a woman from Vietnam, and she’s interested in learning new approaches to critical thinking and logic, because her formal education in those skills just wasn’t very good (her opinion). Do you have any recommendations that might help her improve in those areas? For example, a certain board game, or book, or anything else you think might help her better develop these specific skills. Thanks a lot.
Klaw: That is a difficult question. Most great board games are built somehow on math or logic, even if it’s not directly visible to the players. Knizia’s games, like Samurai or Tigris & Euphrates, have that as a huge component. I’d also suggest books like The Invisible Gorilla or Think Twice as highly accessible books that discuss things like cognitive illusions and improved decision-making. Oh, and don’t watch the Republican debates.

Andrew: There is a narrative out there which suggests that the Astros have a negative reputation and will have trouble attracting FAs. Is this overblown and/or has recent success diluted this notion?
Klaw: Nonexistent. What a dumb narrative. You know what attracts free agents every time, without fail? Money.

Michael: Do you know what it is about baseball that makes injuries to a star or great player diminish him so much that almost any replacement could be better? Is the difference between being good and bad that small?
Klaw: I would guess – no science here, just a quick reaction – that it is a function of the minuscule degrees of timing required in hitting a baseball or throwing one well enough to hit a spot or miss a bat. Interfere with that in the slightest way and the player is a fraction of himself.

Eric. Florida: Are you for free-speech zones? Do you think this is very progressive?
Klaw: I don’t even know what that means. Free speech is a right guaranteed us all by the First Amendment. It means if you want to run around in blackface, the government can’t arrest you for being a racist asshole. But if you want to run around in blackface on campus, the college can suspend or expel you, because that’s a private institution. Do it at work and your employer can fire you. Do it on TV or on social media and the same can happen. Free speech doesn’t protect you from private consequences. It only means that the government can’t stop you or punish you.

Michael, DC: What do you think is the most efficient way for a small market (read, cheap owner) team like Cleveland to allocate its offseason resources? Trading from SP depth to get a power bat, buying a few mid-low level FAs or continuing to develop from within?
Klaw: Developing from within is always the answer, but isn’t an offseason plan: If the players aren’t there yet, you have to do something else. Trading a starter for multiple young pieces when you know you can’t go buy stars in free agency makes sense. You take on the risk and the time lag (acquiring players who might produce less in 2016 than the established pitcher you gave up) as the cost of doing business with low revenues and a tiny payroll.

Tom: Keith, Zack Greinke is the only free agent who said he went to a team (Dodgers) because they offered him the most money. Every other free agent wants a chance to win. That’s what they say. So I think you’re WAY off there.
Klaw: Oh, well, if that’s what they say, it must be true, because no one ever mouthed a platitude to the media just to satisfy the likes of you.

Forsyth: Does JBJ for Carson Smith of the Mariners make sense for both sides?
Klaw: Not at all.

Alex: Do the Cubs benefit more from trading say Baez or Soler or Castro for pitching, and signing say Heyward? Or signing Price, and holding on to the kids a bit longer and see how things shake out?
Klaw: I say keep Soler, who has the best combination of upside and the probability of reaching it. Trade one of the other two, because there aren’t enough AB to go around otherwise anyway: Bryant 3b, Russell ss, Baez/Castro 2b, Rizzo 1b, Schwarber LF, Soler RF.

Dave: How would you rate the Mets big 5 pitchers going forward? Would you think of trading any of then for a bat?
Klaw: Harvey, deGrom, Thor, Wheeler, Matz. I’d deal Matz, who has the worst history of durability of the group. But then they’re short a starter.

N: Out of the box question klaw. First off, thank you for all the non-baseball stuff you indulge in on your blog, perirscope, twitter and here in the chats. I recently started dating someone who considers herself to have a mild anxiety disorder and has been diagnosed as manic-depressive. We’ve been together for a few months and things have been great and are getting serious. Considering your background with anxiety, do you have any recommendations for someone on the other side of it in a relationship? I don’t suffer from either of those illnesses, but want to be as sympathetic and supportive as I can.
Klaw: That’s not an easy question – and I’d advise you to talk to a therapist who deals with such issues if you can, just to better acquaint yourself. Learning to recognize the signs of someone who’s “off” is probably the biggest key; whether it’s forgetting to take whatever meds she’s supposed to be on or facing a trigger like stress or otherwise losing her routine, it can change her personality, and you have to be ready to provide support while also managing the change in her mood, demeanor, even language.

Drew: Any chance you see Roark bouncing back to anything approximating his 2014 form? Or should the Nats replace him with Cole?
Klaw: Scherzer, Strasburg, Gio, Roark, Cole. Did I forget someone?

Noah: Is Maikel Franco a future superstar?
Klaw: I do not think so. I think he’s an above-average regular.

Richie: Any chance the Mets look to trade Plawecki considering they need a bat and arent likely to trade any of their pitchers? What could a guy like him bring back?
Klaw: I think someone asked me that in the periscope yesterday and I don’t have a good answer. D’Arnaud could be an All-Star, a top 25 player in the league, if he could stay healthy and catch 130 games. I don’t have a ton of confidence that he’ll do that. If you keep Plawecki, you can move d’Arnaud around, give him a few days off now and then when he needs it, and still get production from behind the plate. If you move him, you will get a lot of zeroes from back there.

Jay: Are the Braves in on other international FAS besides Kevin Maitan? And is that handshake deal still legit?
Klaw: I haven’t heard about others but I haven’t looked into it. Those deals are totally illegal and nobody cares.

@RationalMLBfan: Lots of talk in NY about the Yankees trading Brett Gardner. Granted, he’s a LHB in a LHB heavy lineup and has slumped in the 2nd half for 2 consecutive seasons, but isn’t a valuable player valuable, regardless of distribution of success of handedness? And he has an affordable contract. What is the urgency to trade him?
Klaw: I don’t see the urgency. I could see them saying they want to move Ellsbury for another bad contract, but Gardner in LF and Hicks in CF and any non-Beltran solution in RF looks pretty good to me.

Drew: Ross is the other potential Nats starter I had in mind. Does he need more time in AA/AAA?
Klaw: Ah, you’re right, I did forget someone. I’d put him over Cole in the depth chart and probably over Roark, although that may be my longtime affinity for Ross speaking.

Patrick: I must have missed your comments regarding Gary Sanchez. Do you think he can be a backup this season and eventually the #1 in NY?
Klaw: I think he needs to go to AAA and catch every day so he can work on receiving, framing, and being focused on every pitch. The one thing he can really do back there is throw, though.

Sean: Cubs need two SP. Would seem one will come from a trade but instead of huge $ pitcher with Arietta voming up mext year, how about Leake? Seems it would be reasonable $/ouput and be a more consistant Hendricjs type of pitcher with more track record and ground balls. Agree?
Klaw: I do agree, but I think Leake is a fit for about 20 clubs, and also I read that as “Arietta vomiting up” next year, which disturbed me.

Jason: With the latest setback for Reyes is he going to be able to break the rotation next year in St. Louis?
Klaw: Maybe midyear? Stuff is there, command isn’t, also missed a lot of time with that shoulder issue and the delivery isn’t helping matters. Don’t think the suspension costs him that much.

Bret: Keith, I know you’ve written about how medications for your anxiety has made such a difference for you. How would you suggest speaking to someone about opting to try medication for mental health challenges if they don’t seem open to the idea?
Klaw: Send him/her to a therapist first. I was fortunate in the sense that I have people close to me who were already taking SSRIs and I knew how they worked and that that was what I needed. Talking to a professional might help your friend.

Noah: if your the Phillies and you’re picking first, do you draft one of the top players that’s willing to sign below slot?
Klaw: If there is no clear 1-1 on draft day – there isn’t one yet – then you make your board, talk to the top 2-3 guys, offer each of them slot for #2 (or maybe #3) and see who takes it. You want that savings so you can go over slot with your next pick, maybe your next two.

FireDrayton: Sorry for re-posting, but figured I’d try again. What level of starting pitcher has comparable value to an elite closer? In other words, you’d rather have X starting pitcher than Chapman, with X being the worst SP who is still more valuable than an elite closer.
Klaw: I’d rather have a mid-rotation starter than an elite closer. 200 innings vs 60. WAR tends to agree with that. You have to place a very high value on performance in high-leverage spots to favor the closer there.

Jason: Who is the best prospect that no one knew of at the beginning of the year?
Klaw: Willson Contreras?

Jack: Was d’Arnaud exposed defensively in the WS like people seem to think? I mean, it was the Royals after all.
Klaw: The Royals exposed a lot of people this year, by which I mean they were just a really fucking good baseball team. That’s all for this week – thank you all so much for coming and firing so many questions at me. I’ll chat next week on Thursday, most likely, and I’ll reveal my NL Rookie of the Year ballot on Monday when the results are announced. Cheers.

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→ November 12, 2015
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Top 80 boardgames.

This is now the eighth iteration of my own personal boardgame rankings, a list that’s now up to 80 titles, up twenty this time from last year’s list. It’s not intended to be a critic’s list or an analytical take on the games; it’s about 80% based on how much we enjoy the games, with everything else – packaging and design, simplicity of rules, and in one case, the game’s importance within its niche – making up the rest.

I don’t mind a complex game, but I prefer games that offer more with less – there is an elegance in simple rules or mechanics that lead to a fun, competitive game. Don’t expect this to line up with the rankings at BoardGameGeek, where there’s something of a bias toward more complex games, which is fine but doesn’t line up perfectly with my own tastes.

I’ve expanded the list to include several games I have only played via iOS app implementations, rather than physical copies. As always, clicking on the game title takes you to amazon.com; if I have a full review posted here or on Paste magazine’s site, the link to that will follow immediately. I’ve linked to app reviews where appropriate too. I’ve got most of these games in my aStore on amazon as well, unless they’re totally out of print.

I’ve added a list of titles at the end that I have played at least once but not enough to offer a review of them or rank them. Many of those will appear on a future list once I get to play them more – I might update this list in a few weeks as we keep playing, as I’ve got a pretty long list of games to try out.

Finally, as with last year’s list, you’ll find a complexity grade to the end of each review, low/medium/high, to make it easier for you to jump around and see what games might appeal to you. I don’t think there’s better or worse complexity, just different levels for different kinds of players. My wife prefers medium; I’m somewhere between medium and high. This isn’t like ordering a filet and asking for it well done.

80. XCOM: The Board Game. Full review. A moderately successful adaptation of a wildly successful cooperative videogame, where players work to protect the planet against a massive alien invasion, facing multiple types of mounting threats as the game advances. Comes with a free app that helps run the game session. I just found the game a bit too complicated no matter how many players we had. Complexity: Medium-high.
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→ November 11, 2015
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Mona Lisa Overdrive.

My buyers’ guide to the outfielder market is up for Insiders. Also, I’ll have my annual boardgame rankings post up later this week, but as a preview, my #1 game is still Carcassonne and it’s on sale now for $22.59 on amazon.

William Gibson’s Sprawl trilogy began with the seminal 1984 novel Neuromancer, which was the first book to win the trifecta of sci-fi awards (the Hugo, the Nebula, and the Philip K. Dick); the book kickstarted the cyberpunk movement, foresaw all manner of cultural shifts that would come about due to the wiring of the world, and may have even helped shape some of the Internet’s early development. I read it in 2005, and it still stands out as a unique work of speculative fiction, one that is overwhelmingly intelligent without ever becoming inaccessible, with a bleak yet expansive vision of a future that isn’t quite dystopian but is certainly light on flowers and rainbows.

I read the sequel, Count Zero, around this time last year, and it didn’t move the needle much for me, as the tripartite storytelling technique felt disjointed, and it was never quite clear why I cared about any of what was going on. The conclusion of the trilogy, Mona Lisa Overdrive, ties the Count Zero plot together with threads from Neuromancer (bringing back Molly, one of that book’s two protagonists), in a highly ambitious storyline that was engrossing but never gets the coherent ending that Gibson probably had in mind.

The narrative of MLO starts from scratch, as we are dropped into four subplots that, as in the preceding book, will all come together by the conclusion, including a not-quite-dead hacker on a stretcher who is comatose and permanently jacked in to the “matrix” and the simstim (a sort of cyberspace reality TV show) star Angela Mitchell whom we met in Count Zero. Someone is after these two people, for reasons that even at the end of the book aren’t exactly clear, leading to a sort of creeping chase throughout the novel where, at first, the targets aren’t even aware anyone’s after them, and various other characters are “used” without their knowledge as part of the hunt.

Gibson’s brilliance in Neuromancer was in his foresight, seeing the potential gains and dangers of the then-nascent technology and concocting a fictional environment that built a culture around the tech – being connected, or interconnected, will change us all in substantial ways, from how we work to how we interact with each other. (It already has, in the First and Third Worlds, albeit in differing ways.) He became a cyberpunk prophet for the depth and incisiveness of his vision; he didn’t just talk about hacking, but about what hacking and hackers might be like. It’s not hard science fiction where we get lengthy explanations of how stuff works; Gibson takes that as a given, which can make his prose a bit confusing at times due to his neologisms and colloquial dialogue, but also has the effect of putting the reader more directly in the story while allowing him to focus on character and emotion.

However, Mona Lisa Overdrive‘s climax falls quite a bit short of his lofty goals. Gibson began to touch on the topic of digital immortality, of uploading one’s “personality” into the matrix to continue to function after the death of the body, but it becomes a mere plot device here, with no exploration of any of the myriad questions around the possibility. The reasons for the conspiracy to kidnap Angela Mitchell or the hunt for the comatose man are still ambiguous after the conclusion, while the actual denouement seems deliberately open-ended and rather unsatisfying. I read Gibson for his vision, but I think here he didn’t offer enough of it.

Next up: Peter Taylor’s 1987 Pulitzer-winning novel A Summons to Memphis.

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