The dish — Page 153 — The collected thoughts of sportswriter, bookworm, & food critic Keith Law

→ June 28, 2017
→ By keith

The Handmaiden.

A psychological and erotic thriller built around a classic con story, the South Korean film The Handmaiden made a number of critics’ top ten lists for 2016, but wasn’t even submitted by the Korean Film Council for consideration for the 2016 Academy Award for Best Foreign Language film even after the film was generally praised on release at Cannes that year. Directed by Park Chan-wook (Oldboy, Thirst), The Handmaiden manages to combine a double-cross story worthy of Hitchcock, a drawing-room mystery worthy of Charlotte Heyer, and erotica worthy of Cinemax into a single, stunningly shot film that still manages to compel even as Park’s train wobbles off the tracks in its final third. It’s free on amazon prime and can be rented via iTunes.

Adapted from the novel Fingersmith by Sarah Waters, The Handmaiden is told in three parts, beginning with the story of Sook-hee, a peasant thief who is recruited by the con artist “Count” Fujiwara to become handmaiden to a wealthy heiress and convince the ingenue to marry the fake count so he can then dump her in an insane asylum and make off with her money. Sook-hee agrees after negotiating a better cut of the proceeds for herself, only to fall in love with her mark, Hideko, and lose her commitment to the con. No one’s motives are truly clear here, and Lady Hideko’s uncle isn’t merely the reclusive rare book collector he appears to be; once the first part of the con is revealed, the narrative shifts back to the beginning and shows much of the same material with missing details restored. Everything you see in part one has a purpose, even if it takes most of the film to discover it.

The con drives the plot, but the power of The Handmaiden resides in the scenery and the lead performances. The film is gorgeously shot, from the uncle’s mansion to the Japanese gardens even to the night scenes among the trees, with Park manipulating light and dark or introducing bursts of color to enact quick shifts in tone. There are very obvious parallels to Hitchcock’s Rebecca, and there are scenes in the gardens on the estate where you’d expect to see the girl from Fragonard’s The Swing swaying to and fro.

Kim Tae-ri, making her feature film debut as Sook-hee, nails the urchin’s mixture of overconfidence and naivete, while Ha Jung-woo is perfect as the suave, unctuously charming con man Fujiwara. (The two are both in the upcoming South Korean drama 1987, about the student protests that year that brought down South Korea’s military regime.) Kim Min-hee won several awards for her portrayal of Hideko, perhaps the most thankless role of the three because so much of the script requires her to act numb, although the character gains complexity once the depravity of her uncle becomes apparent in part two; her role just seems less demanding, other than the makeup and hair she’s required to wear while Hideko delivers readings of the books in her uncle’s collection.

The film would almost certainly have received an NC-17 rating here for the two sex scenes between Sook-hee and Hideko, which some critics have tabbed “soft porn” but which would probably escape remark if they involved a hetero pairing. If there’s something objectionable here, it’s the scenes’ length, or some of the dialogue, perhaps badly translated, from Sook-hee that I think was supposed to show that she’s just as naive as Hideko. (Waters herself defended the scenes, saying the women are appropriating a very male pornographic tradition and that queer audiences welcomed them.) Establishing the attraction between the two women as genuine is critical for the credibility of the overall story, and while the second scene is probably too long by half, skipping them entirely would have left the film worse off. The movie’s conclusion, however, brings the off-screen violence from implication to reality with a needlessly grisly torture scene that would have survived just as well without showing us any severed fingers; I haven’t read the novel but I believe that scene was Park’s invention.

I doubt any film would have topped The Salesman for the Best Foreign Language Oscar, given the political circumstances around the latter’s nomination, but I would rank The Handmaiden above the four other nominees. You can argue it’s pornographic, but I think those scenes are both transgressive and true to the original author’s intent; the violence is far more disturbing and less essential to the plot. And the plot is reason enough to watch the film – it’s an old con done up in a new way, with double dealing and secret schemes, by actors who fully inhabit the devious characters they’re portraying. It’s easily among my top ten movies of last year.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2016 movies, con men, highly recommended, korean films, lgbt films, lgbt literature, psychological thrillers

→ June 27, 2017
→ By keith

The Windup Girl.

Paolo Bacigalupi’s 2010 novel The Windup Girl, which won the Hugo and Nebula Awards for the best sci-fi novel of that year, manages to be both fantastical and realistic, with an all-too-believable setting in a world after a series of environmental catastrophes where food supplies are controlled by “calorie” companies and nations have fallen under their extortionary practices. The title character is a genetically modified human, grown in a lab in Japan as a sort of modern servant and concubine, whose mistreatment will lead to the fall of the Thai government and a shift in the area’s ongoing power struggle. Bacigalupi’s story is violent and his worldview bleak, but in a time when the world’s largest economy is pulling out of a worldwide agreement to try to slow man’s effect on the global climate, it seems entirely plausible – and his take on corporate ownership of genes and species doesn’t seem quite so cynical as it might have even seven years ago.

The multifacted plot gives us Anderson Lake, ostensibly an American managing a foreign factory in Thailand but in reality a researcher hunting for unusual genes and species bred or developed by Thai scientists – especially the location of the country’s seedbank, a potential goldmine of new genes for Lake’s employer to use to create new species of grains and other plants to resist the latest waves of diseases and pests. (Bagicalupi has created a rather terrifying-sounding array of these biological threats, including the evocative “blister rust.”) The factory Lake oversees uses animal power to create kink-springs that are used in this post-petroleum world as portable power sources, while also growing species of algae to help generate power to be stored in these springs. He stumbles on Emiko, the “windup girl” of the title, who is now owned by a strip club owner after her original Japanese owner decided to abandon her in Thailand rather than pay the dirigible fare to fly her back to Tokyo. The Thai government’s power is split between two warring factions, Trade and Environment, each of which plays a role in protecting the insular kingdom from outside threats and influences – like the importation of plants carrying new diseases – with each requiring its own sets of bribes and connections before shipments of outside goods can enter the country. When one of Trade’s enforcers, Jaidee, goes too far in punishing an importer who hasn’t paid sufficient bribes, it sets off a chain reaction that will eventually envelop Lake, Emiko, Jaidee’s forces, the heads of Trade, Environment, the army, and the queen’s regent in a political cataclysm that threatens to bring the country down.

The story is violent, especially to Emiko, often way beyond anything necessary for the plot to move forward. While the one major scene where she’s raped and forcibly sodomized leads to a revenge sequence that is integrated into the political storyline, there’s just more detail of her degradation than any reader should need – or than any author should want to offer. It engenders sympathy for her character, but she’s already such a pariah in this society that this is superfluous. Instead it seems like pandering to the worst elements of the audience.

Yet beyond Emiko, is there really a compelling character anywhere in the book? Lake is a blank page; his compassion for Emiko doesn’t fit with the rest of his behavior, and if it’s just sexual attraction, that doesn’t exactly explain the compassion either. There’s no explanation for why he’s one person in his work mode and someone else entirely once he encounters Emiko and ends up saving her from officials chasing her in the street a day or two later. The closest thing to a fully-developed second character in the book is Kanya, Jaidee’s top lieutenant who ends up taking over his squad and finds the agency that Emiko lacks. Their paths don’t intersect – Kanya has a marked disdain for the windup who temporarily helps her hunt for Emiko – but they do represent contrasting sides of the issue of women establishing any sort of control over their lives in a male-dominated world.

Post-environmental catastrophe novels have been around a long time – A Canticle for Leibowitz, set after what appears to have been a nuclear disaster, won the Hugo over forty years earlier – but Bacigalupi manages to fold a number of current problems or concerns into his setting that make it seem immediate where others in the subgenre have been remote. Global temperatures have risen with predictable consequences like higher sea levels. Food insecurity is a political destabilizer in this world, and food shortages are exacerbated by more tumultuous weather patterns and new plagues that evolved around monocultures foisted on the world by GMO food monopolies. Petroleum is gone, presumably exhausted, and methane use is tightly regulated. That means airplanes are gone and cars are luxury items. Air conditioning doesn’t seem to exist, which is particularly relevant to Emiko, who has been designed with smaller pores that mean she can’t sweat properly to cool her body. None of this seems that improbable or that far off, especially with our current government backpedaling on virtually all initiatives to protect the environment.

This novel winning major awards makes sense given the themes it tackles and the level of detail Bacigalupi has invested in his world, but I don’t think it’s that great of a novel in a literary sense due to the lack of compelling central characters. It’s thought-provoking, as many of the great sci-fi novels are, and there’s an immediacy here that stories of interstellar travel or time-shifting can’t bring. After I finished, however, I found the characters had completely vanished from my mind – the setting stuck, but none of the individuals did. That keeps it from the top echelon of sci-fi novels I’ve read in my run through the Hugo winners.

Unrelated, but “Bacigalupi” sounds like something the Hoobs would say.

Next up: I’ve run through three short books since finishing this, including Fritz Lieber’s Hugo-winning novella The Big Time, which is free for the Kindle because it’s in the public domain but which I found boring, and am now reading Ursula K. Le Guin’s A Wizard of Earthsea.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: american literature, dystopian, environment, hugo award, nebula award, science fiction

→ June 25, 2017
→ By keith

Land of Mine.

The Danish-German drama Land of Mine (Under Sandet) was one of five nominees for the Best Foreign Language film at the most recent Academy Awards ceremony and swept the Robert Awards, the Danish equivalent of the Oscars, last year. The story is fictional but is based on the real-life effort after World War II where 2000 German POWs, many of them teenagers or elderly men, were forced to come to Denmark to clear the up to two million landmines the Nazis had planted along the country’s western coast. Half the Germans either died or were maimed in the work, and the question of whether this constituted a war crime still hangs over Danish history. Land of Mine is sparse and taut, rarely sentimental until the very end, and doesn’t let the Danes off the hook one bit for the choice to force children to pay for the sins of their fathers. (It’s available to rent/buy on amazon and iTunes.)

The kids forced to clear the mines arrive at a Danish beach under the command of Captain Ebbe and Sgt. Carl Rasmussen, both of whom appear to be completely unconcerned with their charges’ welfare – they are human fodder for clearing the mines, and if they die in the effort, that’s the Germans’ fault for placing the mines there in the first place. One boy doesn’t even make it out of the initial training. The group includes Helmut Morbach, who is either the most realistic kid of the group or just an asshole, depending on your view; Sebastian Schumm, who is the de facto leader of the troop; Wilhelm Hahn, a naive kid oblivious to what’s ahead of him either in Denmark or after a return home; and the twins Werner and Ernst Lessner, who plan to go home and become bricklayers to help rebuild Germany now that the war is over. There’s no question over their volition here: the boys are barricaded in their little hut at the end of each work day and aren’t even fed for the first few days at the beach.

The kids don’t stand out much as individual characters, but are vehicles for telling the greater story, including how Sgt. Carl (Herr Feldwebel to the kids) ends up caring about their welfare in spite of his own misgivings and the commands from above to treat them like slaves. I don’t think I’m spoiling anything to mention that some of the 14 kids in the original group aren’t going to live to the end of the movie – they’re crawling on a beach looking for and defusing land mines, so of course there will be casualties. The movie’s impact comes more from how they’re injured or killed than how many, such as the effects of failing to feed the kids adequately, and in some of the cases we don’t really know the characters well enough to feel their losses as individuals.

Sgt. Carl, played by a relative novice actor in Roland Møller, is the moral center of the film, and his evolution over the course of the film becomes the movie’s conscience – he doesn’t want to think of the boys as people, comes to see them that way once the suffering and death begin, then is reminded of how they all ended up in this situation in the first place before he has to make one final decision to do the ‘right’ thing. Møller’s performance is dominant because most of it is so understated, and because his character gets the emotional complexity Ebbe’s and even the boys’ characters lack. That makes the ending of the film a little harder for me to accept – it’s the one true moment of sentiment, and the only part of the script that didn’t ring true. When he develops a little camaraderie with the boys, it seems only natural; he’s with them all day and starts to see them as real people, and struggles to transfer his hatred of the Nazis or the Germans over to them once he knows them. Whether the end works may depend on how much you buy into his personal transformation from the initial scene of abject hatred to the last day of work on the beach.

The characters of the POWs aren’t that well defined, but the young actors playing them at least give them depth in their emotional responses to the series of catastrophes that follow their assignment to the beach. They’re afraid every day, and every time the script seems like it’s giving them a few moments of calm, another mine explodes, setting off a new chain of emotional reactions in the survivors. Joel Basman delivers a strong performance as Helmut, the least likable of all of the boy soldiers, while the twins, Emil and Oskar Belton, playing Ernst and Werner get a small subplot of their own that gives Emil in particular a powerful scene in the back half of the film. The script also adds little details, like Sebastian answering a question about whether his father’s still alive with a long pause followed by a remote “I don’t know,” to flesh out the emotional states of these children even without giving us much in the way of biographical details.

Land of Mine is almost old-fashioned in its anti-nationalism; the easy thing to do in any historical drama about World War II is make any German characters the villains and move outward from there, but the protagonists of this movie are all Germans and don’t show the slightest hint of Nazi sympathies or even of German nationalism. They’re just kids, and all they want to do is survive and go home. The Danes are the nationalists, carrying forward their rage at the Nazi atrocities on to prisoners of war who had nothing to do with the mistreatment of Denmark. Sgt. Carl has to face the reality that the kids who’ve been conscripted to clear these mines are victims of the Nazi regime too, and the difficult decisions that the script gives him could apply to any conflict and any attempts at postwar reconciliation too.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2016 best foreign language oscar nominees, danish films, german films, historical fiction, historical films, world war ii

→ June 24, 2017
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 6/24/17.

I wrote two new pieces for Insiders this past week, one looking at teams that just drafted their new #1 prospects and a minor league scouting piece on Phillies, Cleveland, Red Sox, and Astros prospects. I held a Klawchat on Thursday.

Smart Baseball got a nice sales bump last week from Father’s Day and from George Will’s favorable review in the Wall Street Journal (subscriber link). Ty Duffy also mentions the book in passing in a smart piece on how analytics are changing the game on the field, possibly for the worse. Thank you to everyone who’s purchased it. I hope to see many of you at my upcoming signings/appearances:

* Toronto, The Sports Gallery, June 26th
* Miami, Books and Books, July 8th
* Harrisburg, Midtown Scholar, July 15th
* Berkeley, Books Inc., July 19th
* Chicago, Volumes, July 28th, 7:30 pm
* GenCon (Indianapolis), August 17th-20th

Still working on Brooklyn and Phoenix for later this summer/fall, and I believe I’ll be signing at PAX Unplugged in Philadelphia in November. Bookstores interested in hosting should contact Danielle Bartlett at HarperCollins; we’re trying to accommodate everyone we can within my work schedule.

And now, the links…

Chiropractors are bullshit, according to this longread, and in my experience a ridiculously high percentage of them are anti-vaxxers too.
Speaking of vaccine deniers, enjoy this post on how one rabid denier can’t do basic math despite claiming the minuscule amount of formaldehyde in vaccines is harmful. (Your body produces formaldehyde every day.)
WIRED looks at the leading hypotheses on the causes of autism spectrum disorder. Note that vaccines aren’t among them.
Buzzfeed has a great longread on the British scientist likely assassinated by Russian agents, and the British government’s apparent complicity in covering it up. The victim, Dr. Matthew Puncher, had helped prove that a Russian dissident was himself killed, via polonium-120 poisoning, by the Russian state. That’s the same Russian government to which our current Administration is cozying up, by the way.
Missouri, fighting to overtake Texas in the race to the bottom, is considering a law that would allow employers to disciminate against women who’ve had abortions or used birth control.
The Guardian looks at a 19-year-old heroin addict turned dealer in West Virginia as part of its series on the U.S. opioid epidemic.
The tick whose bite makes people allergic to red meat – specifically to a carbohydrate in red meat called alpha-gal – is spreading to the northern half of the U.S.. Use an insect repellent that contains DEET and, if you’re camping or otherwise outdoors in an area likely to have ticks, treat your clothing with permethrin.
Last week brought the shocking (#notshocked) news that coconut oil isn’t a magical health food after all. How did it ever get that reputation in the first place? A couple of isolated studies on individual chemicals found in coconut oil fueled a lot of wacko theories and charlatans selling “alternative medicine” solutions. It can be pretty useful in baking, though.
David French of the National Review had my favorite argument on why the Philando Castile verdict was “a miscarriage of justice”. Many of these cases are about race; this is about a cop who killed an innocent man who followed the cop’s instructions and died anyway.
Vulture’s Kyle Buchanan tells the movie industry to stop blaming critics for their own bad blockbusters.
Everyone’s got an opinion on why amazon is buying Whole Foods; I liked this explanation from The Atlantic‘s Derek Thompson, although I think the real answers are probably even more complex. If Amazon merely wanted to buy a brick and mortar network to reach consumers, was this the best or only option? And what happens to folks like me, who’ve chosen Whole Foods because of the quality of its merchandise and/or because it allows consumers more choices for (ostensibly) responsible spending?
One study on Seattle’s minimum wage hike found it didn’t hurt employment in the food services industry, one of the sectors that was, in theory, likely to be most affected by such a law.
J. Kenji Lopez-Alt, author of the cookbook The Food Lab, is joining partners in opening his first restaurant, a sausage and beer hall in San Mateo, CA.
A Rhode Island teacher got to meet the President after winning a state award, and in his photo op decided to be ‘visibly queer’ to make a statement. The reason I included it here: He asked the President if it was OK before the pic, and Trump said yes.
Those Carrier jobs Trump/Pence claimed they’d saved? The company automated the plant and is moving the jobs to Mexico.
The ransomware attack earlier this year may have distracted authorities from an even more serious attack using tools leaked from the NSA.
I’ve mentioned the NYC cocktail bar Coup before, and they just got a positive writeup in the New Yorker. All proceeds there go to nonprofits fighting or threatened by the current Administration; you get a token with every drink you buy, and you place it in a vase for the charity you want to support.
Former NFL player Ryan O’Callaghan planned to killed himself because he didn’t want admit he was gay, but members of the Chiefs medical staff noticed changes in his behavior and ended up leading him to choose to live and come out publicly. The conversation he had with then-Chiefs GM Scott Pioli is particularly touching.
The “Angry Chef” now has a book coming out detailing how “alternative” ideas like detoxing are mostly just bullshit. Speaking of which, NASA just called bullshit on Gwyneth Paltrow’s fake-medicine site GOOP for claiming a product used the same material found in spacesuits. You are a complete idiot if you give her any of your money.
A Wisconsin ironworker is going to challenge Rep. Paul Ryan for the House Speaker’s seat next year, and while he’s got to be the longest of longshots, his first campaign ad is a doozy.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: beer, cocktails, gay rights, links, pseudoscience, stick to baseball, vaccines

→ June 22, 2017
→ By keith

Klawchat, 6/22/17.

Questions go in the frame below, not in the comments!

My latest Insider posts look at which teams may have just drafted their #1 or #2 prospects and at some Phillies, Cleveland, Red Sox, and Astros prospects I’ve scouted recently.

Keith Law: I still find it so hard to say what I need to say. Klawchat.

addoeh: What was the first MLB game you attended?
Keith Law: You’d have to ask my parents that – I definitely remember going to a Mets game when I was around 7 or 8, but it’s possible I went to one (Mets or Yanks) when younger that I don’t recall. But baseball was always on TV in my house.

Josh: My Royals have played themselves squarely into the middle of the pack. Should they trade what they can by the deadline and plan for the future, or should they just play out the string and make everyone QO’s after the season and let guys walk?
Keith Law: Very hard to see a team this bad at getting on base getting to the postseason. And if they don’t sell, they’re going to end up in terrible long-term shape going into 2018, with one of the game’s worst farm systems AND a terrible ML roster.

HankQ: Sean Newcomb has had good success in his first three starts with the braves. That said, his walk rate in the minors has been high, his stuff and walk rate remind me of Mark Langston. Would you say in the best case scenario that Langston’s career would be Newcomb’s upside?
Keith Law: No way. Mark Langston had a 50 WAR, 16-year career. He’s a Hall of the Very Good pitcher. That might be a top 1% outcome for Newcomb.

Eduardo: Which MLB teams have the strongest presence in Brazil? And what do you think about Eric Pardinho? Obrigado. Valéu!
Keith Law: I’ll have a note up on Pardinho and a few other top July 2nd guys – just the elite names – at the end of next week. He did a bunch of events outside Brazil, including the PG event in Jupiter, so every team had a chance to see him. The Rangers, Rays, Mariners, and Jays have all been active in Brazil, but my understanding from scouts (and that great Pedro Moura series of articles from two years ago) is that it’s a very insular, corrupt baseball community there.

Max: 3 months ago Bellinger was, according to everybody, a better prospect than Judge. Who you think will have the better career? (I still think Bellinger will be better, if slightly)
Keith Law: Bellinger by a lot. He’s more than three years younger than Judge, and he’s a 70 defender at first who can also handle centerfield. There’s no comparison for me here – and I think Yankee fans can vouch for my longtime optimism about Judge.

Brad: Knowing that he was just sent to AAA to “clear his head” a bit, do you have any opinions on what Schwarber has done differently this year that has negatively affected his hitting? Chasing too many pitches? Slow bat? He’s been so much better than this thus far in his career…Thanks!
Keith Law: I really don’t have any good insight to offer on this, sorry.

Dog: Do you think Jonathan Villar’s 2016 was a mirage and his 2015 and 2017 seasons are more reflective of who he is as a player?
Keith Law: I think his 2016 power spike was a mirage. But in 2015, he had just 128 PA – I don’t think that was reflective of anything about him.

Andrew: If you had to re-rank the top three Padres prospects as of today, would there be any change from your pre-season rankings? I believe you had Espinoza, Quantrill, and Margot. Does Tatis crack that group as of today?
Keith Law: I answered this in the link at the top of this chat, on which teams just drafted their new top prospects. San Diego is on there.

Phils Guy: How should a first-time author, who may lack positional assets including name recognition and twitter followers, decide whether to pursue a traditional publisher versus independently publishing an e-book?
Keith Law: My decision was easy – I had access to a literary agent through my regular agent, and when we put a proposal out, a traditional publisher bought it right away. If that’s an option for you, pursue it. The worst that happens is no one bites and you choose to publish yourself.

Ruben Amaro Jr: Keith, the Phillies seem to have a comparatively poor rate relative to MLB in having draft picks contribute at the major league level. Development (see Williams, Nick and Crawford, JP) seems to stagnate, even players on the roster (Franco, for one) don’t seem to break out. Is this a failure to develop talented players, or simply an inability to identify talent in the first place?
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s a single cause, and some of those issues cross regimes, too. Williams didn’t stagnate so much as become the player he’s always been. Crawford, on the other hand, is a major concern – I had a scout who saw him this year say he’s “swinging uphill” and covering much less ground at short – and if he isn’t a 60 or better, then who in that system projects as anything more than an average regular?

Preston: Who has a higher ceiling, Sean Newcomb or Kyle Wright?
Keith Law: Wright.

danny: Why are the Braves going far over slot value for Wright? Would he turn down the slot value at #5? (alternative question: Freeman to 3B? Really?)
Keith Law: My guess? That was worked out beforehand, so that Wright would turn down underslot offers at picks 1-4 if any arose. As for Freeman to third … I’m less disturbed by the thought of him playing there than I am the idea that this is to accommodate Matt Freaking Adams.

Adam: Is Alex Verdugo an elite prospect?
Keith Law: He’s really the Joe Flacco of prospects.

Matt: Do you ever write any articles on potential trade candidates and what teams may be targeting them and willing to give up?
Keith Law: No, because I hate reading those articles. They’re kind of bullshit.

James : Hi Keith, Huge fan of your work. I remember you had Luis Carpio as a guy to watch in the Mets system, but then he tore his labrum and missed most of 2016. Is he still someone who piques your interest? Potential top-100 prospect in a couple years or nah?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen him this year – weather & travel killed me when Columbia came north, but the good news is I also missed the washed-up quarterback – and reports I’ve had from other scouts say he’s definitely lost something, including throwing, post-injury. I wouldn’t give up on him, but I was hoping for a little more this year.

Chris: I was just reading the piece you linked at the top about prospects from PHI, CLE, BOS, and HOU. About Francisco Mejia you said that, because his pitchers weren’t holding runners very well, he still gave up a couple stolen bases. Has that ever been a real problem for you while scouting: a legit prospect being held back (for lack of a better term) by the talent around him? If a team is made up of 24 org guys and one prospect, does that make it harder to scout him?
Keith Law: No, that was more an explanation of why I would say he’s got a great arm but, hey, they were 2-2 off him stealing that night.

Judlow: Suppose you’re Bobby Evans. (Sorry.) Do you read 2017 as bad dream and push through it retaining core of position players intact? Or are you witnessing in real, excruciating time that Span / Pence done, Crawford / Panik / Belt just not that good? If latter, would you blow up team as much as you could?
Keith Law: Joe Sheehan raised the question of how much they really have to deal if they do blow things up. Cueto is hard to price because of the player option (note: teams should never give out player options, and this is one reason why). Crawford would have value, I think: low-OBP plus defender at short who’ll hit a few mistakes into the seats every year. Lot of teams could use that guy. Shark has very little value in trade, I think, given the contract and inconsistency. So what could you really do?

Neema: Do you think AJ Puk’s performance so far this year is more a reflection of his relatively weaker competition in high Class A or has he made significant improvement since he was drafted? Is he a legitimate top 50 prospect now?
Keith Law: My understanding is that he was overpowering high-A hitters – and that his stuff is consistently better than it was last spring too. So, yeah, I think he’s a little better, but also he needs to face better competition too. Not a top 50 guy at the moment, although I won’t actually assemble a top 50 list until after the Futures Game.

Kris: I read your recent post regarding Phillies prospects. Regarding Pullin and his approach (or lackthereof), I know it’s only one game, but doesn’t his seeing only six pitches in four plate appearances expose a pervasive plate discipline issue within their minor league system? Guys like Cozens, Williams, Alfaro all project a similar lack of patience — and graduates like Franco, Herrera, etc have been exposed at the MLB level by demonstrating this flailing approach.
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re really preaching or rewarding patience, but in their defense, how are you going to tell guys like Kingery or Pullin to change their approaches when they’re both raking in AA? Franco would be the one guy in that whole system whom I might argue was allowed to reach the majors without showing sufficient development in his approach … but then he was good his first half-season anyway and it’s possible that his trajectory to this point wouldn’t have been any different.

Andrew: Great timing with scouting notebook including Pullin today – promoted to LHV. Thanks for all your work.
Keith Law: I found that out about a half-hour after the article was posted.

Vin: Is there anything that the stat line isn’t telling us with Ahmed Rosario that is leading Mets mgmt to say he isn’t ready and leaving him in the minors in spite of huge glaring needs and a season rapidly slipping away? What sort of stats can we expect when he is called up?
Keith Law: Any hitter stat line in Vegas may be fool’s gold. I happen to think he can really hit anyway, and he’s a better defender than Cabrera or the domestic abuser, so I don’t know why they won’t call him up.

Dr. Bob: Joe Sheehan ranked Mike Matheny as the last major league manager for tactical managing. Making the sting even worse here in the midwest is that MM finished behind Scioscia, Ausmus, Collins, and Mattingly. Man, if you can’t finish ahead of that group, you are bad.
Keith Law: And I think Joe was spot on. Matheny is really overmatched by in-game tactical decisions. It really shows when he’s managing against one of the better tacticians.

Ron: Could you see Gordon up with the Twins in September and either Polanco or Dozier traded at the deadline? Thanks!
Keith Law: Gordon, no, zero reason for them to do that. Dozier, maybe, but only if they get a sizable return, I think. Again, no real push for them to do so.

Matt: At this point can we assume Dominic Smith is James Loney trapped in a Mo Vaughn-like body? His power numbers in Vegas seem to say “yes”.
Keith Law: That’s not what his numbers seem to say at all.

Sim: I saw your article on drafted players who would be their team’s No. 1 or No. 2 prospect but didn’t see Heliot Ramos on there. Where do you think he’d rank with the Giants?
Keith Law: No higher than third.

kim: Love the chat. Have you been back to TO recently? the city is exploding. Wondering what was your favourite restaurants here. Also the Tulo Hoffman trade – while not quite Dickey Thor debacle – is looking like worse each day. comment? thanks, Keith!
Keith Law: Monday’s PitchTalks event – I think there are still a few tickets left – will be my first trip to T.O. since 2005. Not sure any of my old favorite haunts still exist – and I understand there’s a huge culinary scene there now. Hoffman isn’t going to post a 7% HR/FB rate as a Rockie for very long.

Rob: Rutherford, Andujar, Sheffield & Florial for Quintana. Who says no?
Keith Law: You must be a White Sox fan.

Rick C: I know he can’t run a .400+ BABIP and 2.0- BB% forever, but could Johan Camargo be a guy? The Braves apparently felt he was worth protecting from the rule 5, and he hit well at AAA this year.
Keith Law: Nope.

Jonathan: Thoughts on the new Ride album. Also, with Chavis and Devers now both in Portland, does this mean Devers goes to Pawtucket and/or does one of them switch positions?
Keith Law: Front half of the album is superb, vintage Ride but maybe with cleaner production. It loses steam towards the end. Devers is a better 3b now than Chavis, so I wouldn’t expect them to move him.

Dr. Bob: I am baffled by the number of players expected to be taken in the first couple rounds of the draft of whom it is said, “has no position” or “1B/DH only.” If I were the parent or coach of a player who looked like he had a hit tool, I would try to teach them to play a position. These are decent athletes, right? Couldn’t many of them learn a position if they started early enough? How does this happen?
Keith Law: A lot of them aren’t very good athletes, but they can hit. Or maybe you could say their athletic ability is limited to their swings.

MAS: How does Gleyber Torres recent injury impact his future development? Would it be better for a prospect to play well in AA/AAA as a 20 yo then have a major injury or struggle/ do OK at AA all year and remain healthy.
Keith Law: No impact. Non-throwing elbow, misses half a season of AB. Sucks that he won’t get the callup in September, but long-term I don’t think this means a thing.

JP: Is David Dahl is basically a clone Michael Brantley at this point? Very toolsy, but probably not playing more than 100 games/year?
Keith Law: I’m worried the back issues will be (or are) chronic.

Larry: Question about draft approach. For a team like Atlanta with a loaded farm system, they went all in with their money on basically three draft prospects — Wright, Waters, Tarnok. Do you like that approach or the one they used last year to spread the money out throughout the draft?
Keith Law: This draft class was not a good one to try to spread money out – the 2016 class had a lot of good prep arms to overpay, which they did, but the 2017 class didn’t..

Ben: If Russia hacks affected voter registration & prevented certain people from voting, that’s terrifying. And that our president & other republicans don’t seem to care is worse.
Keith Law: And the cynic in me wonders if the Democrats only care because it may have cost them some elections. But yeah, it’s terrifying, and the national apathy over it is even more so.

Stevie: Shed Long was recently promoted to Double-A after destroying High-A. Has his prospect status changed this year?
Keith Law: It has not.

Brian in ahwatukee: As an A’s fan, did “I believe in Stephan Vogt” ever have trade value?
Keith Law: I think he did at the All-Star Break in 2015, and even suggested it on our SF area radio affiliate at the time, for which I was insulted, flamed, sworn at, etc.

Devin: in your opinion, does heliot ramos project to be a plus center fielder?
Keith Law: That’s probably more than I’d project on his defense.

Nolan: Hey Keith, any thoughts on the Rizzo-Hedges play? A few things bug me about it, mainly: 1. That MLB told Rizzo he broke the rule but has no punishment system in place, and 2. Rizzos comment that “every ump I ask says if the C has the ball he’s fair game.” Is Rizzo lying, or do umps not even understand the rule? Does he go around asking when it’s okay to railroad catchers?
Keith Law: He pretty clearly targeted the catcher, and I certainly wondered if his status as a very popular, face-of-baseball sort of player on a rather important franchise had any effect on MLB giving it a big shrug.

Angel: Keith 2 in one .. chavis was promoted from AA Why the Yankees can’t do the same with Andújar?.. and do you think Torres will be fine after the surgery?.. I mean you think he will change because of that?
Keith Law: Andujar was promoted to AAA the other day.

Jonah: Has then ship sailed on Appel ever becoming a big leaguer?
Keith Law: He just had his best start ever in pro ball, so your timing is curious. He’s clearly going to be a big leaguer. The question is what kind of big leaguer.

Darren: Whom do you believe will be promoted to the majors first. Senzel, B Rodgers, Eloy or Rutherford? Would a good guess for all 4 be in that order?
Keith Law: Yep, that’s just the order I’d suggest.

Jorge: Having read that the Yankees may soon be looking to the trade market to resolve their first base issues, I imagine Matt Adams is a potential target (This Freddie Freeman to third business is nonsense posturing I hope). If a trade like that were to happen, in what prospect range (1-10, 11-20, 21-30) would you put a potential return for the Braves? And could you see a prospect (11-20) included with Matt Adams to get to a (1-10) range? Thanks, reading your book on my iphone while my dad reads the hard copy I bought him for father’s day. We are both really enjoying it.
Keith Law: Really doubt they get a top prospect for Adams. He’s a platoon player, really.

Drew: We know S Romero was kicked off his team for fighting with a teammate, as well as marijuana use. Does his overall character concern paint him as more of a “young guy who needs to grow up”, or a legitimately bad guy you dont want in your clubhouse?
Keith Law: I think there’s enough risk of the latter that I would have passed on him in the draft, especially where he was taken. Let someone else roll that die.

BD: What did the Orioles do to Kevin Gausman and is it fixable??
Keith Law: Kept changing his delivery, moving him on the rubber. They changed Bundy. They changed Harvey and wrecked him. A lot of this is Rick Peterson, who’s now gone, but at some point don’t Buck & co. have to answer for this stuff too?

Darren: Hi Keith, thanks for the chat. We were having a discussion on sending back food at restaurants, and as a general rule I will not do it and ask for a new meal. If it’s completely inedible I will just ask for my money back and eat later. I’ve heard too many horror stories from people that work in the industry. What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: I will only send something back if there is something truly wrong (e.g., I didn’t order that) or if it’s cooked so poorly that it’s inedible. I don’t think I do this even once a year. If I just don’t like something, I simply leave it. If the server asks, I’ll (very politely) explain the issue, but I don’t ask for anything at all – not a refund, not a replacement, nothing.

Buck: Am I right in thinking that Tyler Mahle will be making a big jump onto the midseason list? JJ Cooper recently said he has “front-end stuff” and the AA stats sure seem to back that up. Do you agree? Do you like him better than Luis Castillo?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s front end of the rotation stuff? I like him, had him on the “just missed” list, think he’s a big league starter, but wouldn’t forecast him as a future #2.

Brad: Son’s team won a 13u championship last week in East Cobb. Played against a kid throwing 84. Now another team from Texas is playing in the Semi-Finals of a perfect game 13U tournament at LakePoint. Game is currently in the 10th, but team from Florida has a kid that is sitting 84-86 and has hit 88. That is harder than most HS teams will have on their team next year.
Keith Law: That just strikes me as “not a good thing.” You never really know – the issue isn’t how hard the kid throws, but whether he’s throwing at the max end of his velocity range. But it sounds bad.

norman: now that we’re past the asg would you challenge vladito and bichette with high A? if that even is a challenge for them?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s imperative, but I’d do it with Bichette before Vlad, given their ages.

Mark: Just want to say first how much I enjoy the chats and appreciate the effort on your end. Food question…When making Marinara sauce I know you have said in the past adding wine is key. I usually let the wine reduce down as I saute the garlic , onions, etc. My first question is , Red or White ? I tend to use red , but I think sometime it overpowers the sauce a bit. My second question is , is reducing the wine the right way to go or should I just add to the sauce as it cooks ?
Keith Law: Tradition says red. I use white. I think it’s less overpowering, and reducing red wine can concentrate its bitter flavors. You can simply add with the tomatoes and let the alcohol simmer out – if the sauce is even gently simmering that’ll cook out most of the booze.

Nick: Should the Braves just trade
Keith Law: Probably yes.

Nils: Can we get this out of the way early? Yes, player _______ on your favorite team is going to sign before the deadline. Thanks.
Keith Law: Yep. Last year two players didn’t sign in the top ten rounds. Unless a guy flunks a physical or was never going to sign anyway, he’s signing.

Chris: Just curious of youre aware of this insanity of Mike Francesa seeing nothing wrong with saying “Oriental-Americans”, claiming CNBC used it first (no proof), and thinks finding one single Asian-American person to back him up vindicates him. Shocking that Mike’s a Trump guy.
Keith Law: He probably loves the attention. I doubt any of this was an occident.

Jay: Recently had a chance to see Brady Aiken start and chat with him after a game. Velo was only 88-90. One of the coaches sounded like he was going to reprimand me because he thought I was asking Aiken about his velo. That’s gotta be a red flag they are worried?
Keith Law: The coach is out of line if he thought he was going to do something to you. But yes, he’s only upper 80s now and yes I believe they are concerned.

Ben: So Missouri voted to allow employers to fire women who use birth control? What the fuck, Keith. This country’s going to shit real quick. Idk what to do anymore.
Keith Law: This is proposed, not passed, right? Still, that it is even reaching the legislature floor is absolutely ridiculous. The attempt to roll back basic women’s rights in this country is brazen – just as one side tells us there’s no “war on women” happening.

John: Before this year Zach Granite looked like a 4th OF at best. Has something changed, or are we just seeing SSS at work?
Keith Law: It’s just 200 PA of BABIP madness. Although I look forward to lots of puns if he’s called up.

Wade: STL signs 7th round JR (pinder) at 110k over slot … really necessary there given their situation this year?
Keith Law: That’s really strange. I thought he was great value in the round, but he wasn’t a top 3 rounds talent for me.

Aaron C.: Favorite Mobb Deep track? Or was their heyday after your divorce from rap music?
Keith Law: Flavor for the Non-Believes. I know it’s not considered one of their best, but I thought it showcased their flow best and I like the minimalist feel.

Adam: Any thoughts on Newcomb past that crazy Langston comparison? Command has looked pretty good so far. The walks are up from one bad inning where he was squeezed a bit
Keith Law: You’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who walked as many guys as he did in the minors and then just stone-cold stopped in the majors. Let’s give him some time.

Jeff: I have a daughter that is going to be a senior in high school this coming year. She’s starting to explore her college options and I was curious if you had any tips on picking a school. She thinks she wants to go to med school afterwards but isn’t sure. We are a middle income family and she is smart enough to get a decent amount of scholarships, but not enough to pay her way. What do you think we should look for? Should the school have a med school or can she undergrad elsewhere? In-state vs. out of state? Overall price? The education she’ll be getting? Overall comfortability with the school? Thanks for your tips.
Keith Law: I couldn’t advise you on the med school aspect, having never gone that route, but on the undergrad part itself, I don’t think paying more for private school or going out of state makes sense if you have a reasonable in-state/public option. Few private universities have the brand name to provide sufficient ROI to match what you’d get by her going to state school and, if your daughter is a good student, excelling there.

Lilith: Who would you say was a better comp round pick? Jeter Downs or Taylor Trammell? Who has the better upside?
Keith Law: I think Trammell, but to be fair, I think in hindsight i was light on Downs.

Ben: Writing a book can take a long time. What did you do to keep yourself motivated and to write every day & get it done? I’ve always wanted to write (have many ideas), but I lack patience and discipline to do so.
Keith Law: Knowing that you have a deadline, and that there’s a big check coming when you finish the manuscript, both help tremendously. I tend to write fast, especially under pressure, so that pushed me too.

Dennis: 1st round picks this year, what % had a deal/agreement in place before the pick was made?
Keith Law: I don’t know what you mean, Dennis. Everyone knows predraft deals are illegal. /rolls eyes so hard my retinas detach

Harrisburg Hal: I’m thinking of ducking out of my Mom’s 70th birthday party to see you in Harrisburg. If there is a book left there for you to sign for me at your appearance, it’s because I thought better of it…or more likely my idea was shot down by my better half.
Keith Law: I’ll sign another one for your mom, then.

Stephen: How many variables do you consider when grading someone’s fastball? Velocity is and will always be the top measure. How much can movement, though, make up for lack of premium heat?
Keith Law: A fastball grade should be about velocity. Fastball movement is typically its own category.

Lisa: What % do you think are females asking you questions?
Keith Law: People seem to think I’m more likely to take questions from women. It’s not true – I don’t look at the names other than to make sure there’s nothing offensive there.

Frank Underwood: Do you watch my show? If so, what did you think of Season 5?
Keith Law: Since I don’t know who you are, I think it’s safe to say I do not watch whatever show you’re on.

Ricky: What % of questions go unanswered each week if you had to guess?
Keith Law: 75% or more.

JG: Do you know much about Landon Leach? He wasn’t in your top 100…
Keith Law: I do … and he wasn’t, indeed.

Andy: Sounds like you got a bad look at Mejia. Any way this influences your outlook? Had you heard other things about trouble with offspeed pitches?
Keith Law: Not really, it’s just one night, but it’ll be something I watch for in the future and ask other scouts about.

Jason: When should teams move minor leaguers who are blocked at the big-league level to another position? I remember you thought the Braves moved Peraza off short too early.
Keith Law: Only when absolutely necessary. They did hurt Peraza’s trade value by doing that. That was a Wren decision, though.

Andy: You’ve commented that the 73% gender wage gap is overstated? Why is that?
Keith Law: There is a wage gap (by gender), but the 73% figure doesn’t consider other independent variables that might explain wage differences. Women do get paid less for equal work, though, and that’s a social problem that requires a political solution.

Steve: Austin Slater isn’t gonna slash .310/.365/.466 at the end of the season, but he is now and has always hit. Think he’s a 3 win player next year?
Keith Law: I’d take the under on that. But I do think he can hit. I had him as a top 100 draft prospect in 2014, but the Giants got him in the 8th (!) round. He’s always had a good swing and I saw him hit good velocity in college.

Chris: Not as timely a question as it could be, but since I’ve missed your last few chats: were/are you a fan of Denis Johnson?
Keith Law: I didn’t care for Tree of Smoke.

Franklin: Please help me decide an argument. Is Happ overmatched right now? He has great power and some good peripheral numbers, but he strikes out a ton, usually swings at the first pitch and if he doesn’t hit it out of the park he’s likely to get out.
Keith Law: He’s always struck out quite a bit, even in college, so that doesn’t concern me. The better question is this: are the Cubs better off with him killing AAA again, or trying to develop his approach in the majors? I think the latter, even if he produces less than they need from that spot.

Michael: Any thoughts on what more we as concerned citizens can do to stop the Republican health care bill? The way they have managed this process in darkness, combined with the awful things the bill does, are very frightening.
Keith Law: Probably not much, other than calling all your elected reps and making sure they are aware you oppose the bill. And then get out in 2018 and get involved. I intend to.

Rob: Micker Adolfo seems to have turned a corner this year. Is there still potential there?
Keith Law: I think so but he’s still a longshot with that approach.

Franklin: You’ve been a big Addison Russell fan and (appropriately) against domestic violence. If you are the GM, there have been no charges brought and he’s publicly denied anything. How would Klaw handle that situation?
Keith Law: Wait for the MLB investigation’s results. If they find sufficient cause for action – and you know my bar on that is pretty low – then I’d make a move.

Estuve: How much movement does Hunter Greene’s fastball have?
Keith Law: Not much – it’s a four-seamer, so it’s hard, but it’s up. I think the Reds have a number of things to try to develop here – he needs to pick one breaking ball, and he needs to throw that changeup more too.

Goody: How far off is a Tyler Mahle comparison to Mitch Keller?
Keith Law: Way off. Keller has better stuff.

jon: Didn’t Clay Buccholz had character issues when he was drafted out of college? Was his character issues different than Seth Romero?
Keith Law: He was arrested for stealing computers. One incident, but a very stupid one that speaks to bad character. Romero has had a variety of incidents.

Jared: Orlando Arcia was one of your breakout candidates this year and I now see why. His defense is incredible and his bat is coming around. What kind of player can he become?
Keith Law: I think he makes some All-Star teams … but maybe not this year.

PJ: Do you feel weird signing autographs?
Keith Law: No, especially not since it’s usually my book I’m signing.

Jeries: Should the White Sox put Carson Fulmer in relief? He’s been getting shelled in AAA again.
Keith Law: I have said this since he was in high school. I can’t see him ever commanding anything enough to start. But he could be pretty damn good for one inning.

Jeff: Do you think the Diamondbacks season is sustainable?
Keith Law: I think it’d take a catastrophe for them or the Rockies to miss the playoffs.

NYTT: You talked before about the Braves cleaning up Bryse Wilson’s mechanics a little bit. Anything you’ve heard to believe he can stay a starter?
Keith Law: I saw him. He can start.

JR: Dilson Herrera – still have a chance to be an everyday 2b, or has that ship sailed?
Keith Law: Based on what I’ve heard from scouts this year it has sailed.

Josh: Help! I’ve got 1 day in LA next month, top 2 places to eat?
Keith Law: Need more than one day for LA! Any of the Jon & Vinny places (Animal, Son of a Gun, Jon & Vinny’s, Petit Trois). And find that Guerrilla Taco truck!
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I hope to see a bunch of you on Monday at PitchTalks in Toronto, and I’ll be back next week to chat before a brief trip to Bristol. Thank you all as always for your questions and for reading.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ June 21, 2017
→ By keith

Advise and Consent.

“If you do that you won’t be liked,” a fatherly fellow Senator had advised him on some controversial matter soon after he arrived. “I don’t give a damn about being liked,” he had retorted impatiently, “but I sure as hell intend to be respected.”

Allen Drury’s dry political thriller Advise and Consent, winner of the 1960 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, is set in an alternate universe where the Senate gives careful and thorough consideration to a candidate for a Cabinet post who is nominated by a bullying coward of a President. It’s a quaint novel, built on the extraordinary idea of a Senator standing on principle, even when opposing his own party, for the good of the country. It’s also too long by half and might be the most blatantly white male-centric Pulitzer winner I’ve read, without a single female character of any merit whatsoever in its 600-plus pages.

Drury never mentions political parties in the novel, instead simply casting them as the Majority and the Minority, with the President, also never named, in the Majority party. The novel revolves around the President’s nomination of Bob Leffingwell, a dove on relations with Russia, to be his new Secretary of State, casting aside the current occupant of the position as too hawkish. The book’s four main sections each focus on one participant in the deliberations over Leffingwell – the Majority Leader, Bob Munson; a longstanding Minority Senator, Seab Cooley; a young Majority Senator from Utah with a secret in his past, Brigham Anderson; and Orrin Knox of Illinois, the idealized Senator who is faced with a choice between the Right Thing and his own Presidential aspirations. Each character is richly drawn in two dimensions – we get a tremendous amount of detail, including biographies of each from childhood, so much of it unnecessary – but lacks the real complexity of actual people.

Over the course of the first half of the book, the accusation that Leffingwell was once a member of a communist discussion group comes to light, is disproven, then resurfaces, and the second time the news gets to Sen. Anderson, who had a brief affair with another man while serving in the Navy in World War II in Honolulu. Now married with a young daughter, from the conservative state of Utah, Anderson is an easy mark for blackmail, and when information on his dalliance comes to the hands of the President, he has no compunction about using it. (The entire episode is modeled after the true story of Sen. Lester Hunt, who killed himself in his Senate office after colleagues tried to blackmail him over the arrest of his son for soliciting sex with an undercover officer.) The consequences of this extortion attempt put Leffingwell’s merits on the back burner and put his opponents, including Sen. Knox, in direct conflict with the President, who refuses to withdraw his candidate even with the evidence of his previous flirtations with communism known to him.

The book is as slow as it sounds; Drury’s pace is leisurely and his sentences tediously long. It’s not a book of action, but it’s also not a book of much dialogue, either, which slows its pace further and left me wondering how Drury intended to push the plot forward. There are maybe a half-dozen memorable scenes in the book – the first hearing where Leffingwell confronts his accuser and the resolution of Brigham Anderson’s section come to mind – and far too much time showing the Senators spending time with their generic wives or chatting with the stereotyped ambassadors from India, Russia, France, and England. The backroom dealing that determines the fate of the candidate should be front and center, but Drury distracts the reader from the good stuff too often.

Anderson’s story could have been the center of a better, if less ambitious, novel, but would never have seen the light of day in 1960. As it is, Drury evinces some empathy for his character, but every discussion of his past transgression is in the light of what a terrible sin it was, even beyond what it might have meant for the character’s political career. It doesn’t make the book flawed – every work of art should be evaluated at least in part based on the time in which it was created – but it does make it seem very dated.

There’s also a lot of setup here for future books, ones Drury did eventually write, that brings nothing to the table in this one – notably the marriage between the children of two of the Senators in the story and the decision by that son to begin his own political career. It’s all prologue but for a book I have no interest in reading, and only served to make this book longer. And if you strip out all this extraneous content I’ve identified here, what are you left with? The story itself is quite thing beyond the Anderson scandal, and that’s the one area where Drury gave us too little verbiage. Add to that the fairy-tale idea of Senators who take their job to evaluate nominees seriously beyond mere partisan rubber-stamping and you get a book that seems to talk about an America that never existed in the first place.

I’m down to eight unread Pulitzer winners, the most recent of which is Mackinlay Kantor’s mammoth 1955 novel Andersonville.

Next up: I’ve got about 100 pages left in Paolo Bacigalupi’s The Wind-Up Girl.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: american literature, political novels, pulitzer prize

→ June 18, 2017
→ By keith

Everybody’s Fool.

I loved Richard Russo’s peak novels, including Empire Falls, Straight Man, and Nobody’s Fool, all of which combined great characterization (of men, at least), well-developed settings, and a mix of humor both lowbrow and high to present slices of life in declining Northeastern mill towns. The last one I mentioned followed the exploits of Donald “Sully” Sullivan, a charming ne’er-do-well who twists the folk hero archetype around and makes us cheer for him as he puts one over on his various nemeses in their small community. Sully returns in a sequel, Everybody’s Fool, set ten years after the original story, and while it’s a pleasant read on its own, it can’t stand up to the shadow of its predecessor.

This time around, Russo gives us two protagonists, Sully and the cop he was jailed for punching in the first book, Doug Raymer, who is now the chief of police, and is Sully’s antiparticle. Where Sully is confident to the point of rashness, Raymer is constantly worried that he’s doing the wrong thing, whether in his job or in his now ended marriage to a woman who died by falling down the steps as she was preparing to leave him for an unknown lover. Raymer and his assistant, Charice, are clearly going to end up an item by the end of the book, although he’s hesitating both because of their work relationship and because they’re different races. Meanwhile, Sully has ended his affair with his paramour Ruth, but her daughter Janie is now a mother herself, and Janie’s ex-boyfriend is an abusive asshole who keeps showing up despite an order of protection. Carl and Rub are still around from the first book, Wirf and Miss Beryl aren’t. Peter, Sully’s son, just shows up in passing; the missing cobra at the heart of the funniest subplot gets more page time.

Everybody’s Fool is similar to the first book, but it’s not the same because it can’t be, even though Russo seems deadset on recreating the past. By setting this book ten years in the future and continuing the stroke of good luck that hit Sully at the end of the first book, Russo has flipped his world upside down and has to give Sully a new stroke of bad luck – a bad diagnosis on his heart from a VA doctor – to try to rebalance the scales, but it doesn’t work. Sully was charming in the first book because he used his charisma and wiles to get by; now that he’s living on Easy Street, he comes off as more of a jerk. His best friend, Rub, is a pathetic character, and Sully’s good natured ribbing now appears mean. Carl probably deserves what Sully gives him, but there are moments where Carl is at least trying to reach across the divide for a moment of shared humanity, and Sully can’t be bothered. I loved Sully in the first book, but here, I found him exasperating.

Raymer, meanwhile, ends up with more time at center stage, and the results are mixed, as he’s certainly not as compelling a lead as Sully was. Russo tries to infuse some depth to him by giving Raymer a sort of devil on his shoulder (after he’s hit by a lightning strike) who pushes him to be bold and decisive where Raymer would ordinarily be reticent. In some scenes, such as the resolution to the cobra story, it works beautifully, the sort of serendipitous denouement at which Russo excels; in others, it comes across like Russo is trying to make Raymer sound like a crazy person, and it instead feels like a bad comic device.

I can understand an author wanting to revisit some of his favorite creations, both characters and places, but for a second novel in the same setting to work, it has to tell us something new, and I don’t think Everybody’s Fool accomplishes that in the least. Russo creates new problems for old friends and solves them in mostly expected ways. The one surprise of the book is a new character, Jerome, Charice’s brother, a side character whose depth is slowly revealed over the course of the book, and who probably should have been its main character after all – although if Russo were anxious about writing a book with an African-American protagonist, I could certainly understand that. Jerome and Charice were just what this fictional town needed: a dose of something completely different, an injection of otherness into a sea of white blue-collar folks that could have made Everybody’s Fool feel like a fresh look at an old milieu. Instead, we get a pleasant read that breaks no new ground. It’s like a Pixar sequel, where we’re glad to see the characters we loved, but realize at the end that we didn’t learn anything new about them.

Next up: I mentioned yesterday that I’m reading Paolo Bacigalupi’s The Windup Girl, and the next review will cover Allen Drury’s Pulitzer winner Advise and Consent.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: american literature, contemporary novels, richard russo

→ June 17, 2017
→ By keith

Blackout and All Clear.

Connie Willis’ time-travel novels are a marvel; she’s created an alternate universe where time travel isn’t just possible, but plausible, because it’s intrinsic to her plots but not to the characters or the setting. The first full-length novel, The Doomsday Book, sent a character back to the period of the Black Death at the same time that a pandemic hit Oxford in 2060, where the time-traveling historians reside. The second, To Say Nothing of the Dog, was a comedy of manners that parodied a Brit Lit classic. Her 2010 diptych Blackout/All Clear is a magnum opus in scope and length, a single novel published in two parts because the combination runs over 1100 pages, sending three historians back into World War II only to have everything go awry for them. The duo swept the major sci-fi novel awards (Hugo, Nebula, and Locus) despite some reviews that criticized the books’ length. I adore Willis’ writing and character development, so while the books are long – it took me just over two weeks to finish the pair – my only regret at their length was that I was dying to get to the resolution.

Willis’ time-travel universe keeps that physical impossibility to something of a minimum. Historians travel backwards in time for research purposes, and of course are charged with staying out of the way of history lest they find they alter it. Spacetime itself has a defense mechanism, however; it won’t allow time travelers to land at a point in history where their mere presence may change its course – so, no, you can’t go back and kill baby Hitler, even in fiction. Those who try end up displaced in time or location from their target, and the gap is called “slippage.” Meanwhile, returning through a portal, called a drop, to 2060 is also complicated – the drops must not be seen by “contemps” from that time period, and if the location isn’t secure, the drop won’t open and the historian can’t return home until the next rendezvous. It’s an elegant, concise way to introduce time travel and all of its attendant problems into serious literature that would otherwise collapse under the weight of the details.

Unlike Willis’ previous two novels in this setting, nearly all of Blackout/All Clear takes place in the past. Once the historians start to step through the portal into World War II at the start of the first book, we don’t get back to Oxford until well into All Clear; this is a novel of three historians stuck in World War II, simultaneously trying to find a way back to their present and to avoid doing anything that might alter history … which could in turn mean that time travel is never invented, creating a paradox with unforeseeable consequences (none of them good, though). Michael Davies wants to research heroes, but ends up in the evacuation at Dunkirk. Polly Churchill wants to research the conditions and behavior of people who sheltered in Tube (subway) stations during the Blitz, but ends up in a shelter below a church and falls into an amateur theatrical troupe. Merope Ward wants to research the lives of evacuated children in the English countryside, only to find herself saving one of her ward’s lives and bringing some of the children back to London to an uncertain fate during the bombings. The three all realize soon enough that something’s amiss, between the slippage and the failure of their drops to reopen, and start to look for each other in London to seek a way out before the paradoxes of time travel overtake them.

Willis’ prose captures the cadence and flow of great British authors of the 19th and early 20th centuries, even though she’s an American author writing today, with the clarity and wit of a Wodehouse and a bit of the descriptiveness of Dickens (but not too much). She also creates wonderful characters, a few of whom, like department head Mr. Dunworthy or young Colin Templer, we’ve seen before. Merope, who goes by Eileen in the past, and Polly are a little bit too similar to each other, although some slight personality distinctions emerge in the second book, but the characters around the core trio are wonderfully diverse and well filled-out, from the actor Sir Godfrey to the aging fisherman Commander Harold to the imps Alf and Binnie who plague Merope’s existence. Willis has given her world depth and texture by populating it with believable, three-dimensional characters, even unlikable ones, so that reading her novels, especially this two-part tome, becomes an immersive experience. I was very much reminded of watching the Foyle’s War TV series, which is set almost entirely in World War II and even has one episode that occurs in part in a bomb shelter; Willis recreated that setting in words to the point where I could lose myself in the story.

Blackout itself isn’t much of a standalone novel because it ends mid-story; there is absolutely zero resolution at its end, not even so much as an answer to the question of why these historians have gotten stuck when their colleagues had gone to other points in history and returned without major incident. If you’re going to read one, you’re committing to read both, and that does mean that you’ll be in the past with the trio of trapped heroes for a long time. I’m completely comfortable with that – I will happily spend all day in Connie Willis’ words if my schedule permits.

Next up: I’ve read a few books since this pairing, but just started another Hugo winner, Paolo Bacigalupi’s The Windup Girl, which definitely sounds like something other than a critically acclaimed sci-fi novel.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: american literature, connie willis, highly recommended, historical fiction, historical novels, hugo award, locus award, nebula award, science fiction, time travel

→ June 17, 2017
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 6/17/17.

I recapped the drafts for all 15 NL teams and all 15 AL teams on Friday and Thursday, respectively, and previously had reactions to day one and day two of the draft, as well as a Klawchat during day two.

I did manage to squeeze in a boardgame review for Paste, breaking down the family-level tile-laying game Bärenpark, which has a Tetris/Patchwork-like mechanic and plays well with four but needs a few rules tweaks to keep it fair.

Smart Baseball continues to sell well, according to my editors, so thank you all for buying, reading, and talking it up. I have signings coming up in Toronto (6/26), Miami (7/8), Harrisburg (7/15), Berkeley (7/19), Chicago (7/28, details to come), and at GenCon 50 in Indianapolis (August 17-20).

I was a bit busy this week, and was offline most of the day Thursday as we went strawberry picking, which means we now have jam and strawberry-rhubarb pie, so the list of links is pretty short. I should be back to normal next week.

Longread of the week: Ars Technica looks at the guy who says he invented email and is suing everyone who says he didn’t. No serious outlet agrees with his claim, but he has access to enough cash to fund these suits, one of which is threatening to shut down the site Techdirt because of the ruinous cost of defending itself against the suit. The soi-disant inventor is also a Trump supporter and announced that he’s running for the Massachusetts Senate seat occupied by Elizabeth Warren.
Two pieces this week found that baseball’s home run spike is at least partly the result of changes to the baseball. The first came from Ben Lindbergh and Mitchel Lichtman at The Ringer, and the second from Rob Arthur at FiveThirtyEight.
Want to get more done in a day? Manage your energy, not your time. That means embracing moments of “unfocus,” and ending the futile effort to be productive every minute of your workday. I wouldn’t say this is how I planned to work, but it is definitely how I do work.
Farhad Manjoo makes a rational argument against using Uber, at least until the company cleans up its act. I’ve switched to Lyft and taxis when I need a ride somewhere.
My adopted home state of Delaware took a major step to ensure a woman’s right to choose in the face of threats to abortion rights at the federal level, to say nothing of efforts in states with right-wing governments like Texas and Missouri to enact end-runs around Roe v. Wade.
Meanwhile, in Ohio, women protested that state’s bill to restrict abortion rights by appearing in costumes from The Handmaid’s Tale. I haven’t seen the series, but the book is a must-read.
Have you seen the list of doctors who claim to be vaccine skeptics? If you argue with anti-vaxers at all, this list inevitably comes up. SkepticalRaptor goes through the list and finds they’re not immunologists, and often aren’t doctors at all. What a shock. I’m in favor of any medical board pulling the license of a doctor who advises parents not to vaccinate their kids.
This GQ profile of LA chef Jordan Kahn and his new restaurant Vespertine seems extremely unflattering to me – not because the writer aimed to take down the subject, but because the entire undertaking seems so out of place. The friend who sent me this link called it “pretentious” and I’d go even farther; the article makes Vespertine sound like a chef’s ego trip around the world.
Puerto Rico voted for statehood, sort of, with an opposition boycott resulting in just 23% of voters casting ballots in the nonbinding referendum. The BBC looks at what statehood would mean for the commonwealth.
A lobbyist who represents “Russian interests” in Washington told the Guardian that he can contradict Jeff Sessions’ claims before Congress that the Attorney General never had contacts with any such people during the 2016 campaign.
Maryland and D.C. have sued the President, alleging a breach of the Constitution’s emoluments clause.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: baseball, links, puerto rico, right to choose, stick to baseball, vaccines

→ June 13, 2017
→ By keith

Klawchat, 6/13/17.

My recap of the draft’s first day is up for Insiders. I’ll do team-by-team recaps, as always, later in the week, probably starting tomorrow with the AL.

Keith Law: You can’t have the fire without the flame. It’s Klawchat.

Jason: Hi Keith, what are your thoughts on the Brewers’ first rounder, Hiura? Would you be seriously concerned about his elow?
Keith Law: He may need TJ. I ranked him lower because he’s going to miss 200 or so PA of development. But folks say he can really rake.

Moltar: Today I learned that David Peterson’s father was a legendary horse trainer who trained Seattle Slew. Over/under number of times he’s referred to as a Thoroughbred? And am I right to think of him as a Dallas Keuchel type?
Keith Law: Keuchel’s command has become exceptional; he wasn’t like this in college at all. But Peterson is a similar guy in that he throws strikes and gets a ton of groundballs.

Moltar: Will the Mets have any issue signing Vientos? I really liked their day 1 haul.
Keith Law: You should assume any player taken in the top ten rounds is going to sign. I think last year two didn’t sign. Teams check prices before drafting because it screws up your bonus pool if you fail to sign a high pick.

Adam D.: The Giants did what the Giants always seem to do and went way off-board. Am I wrong to criticize the picks, even understanding the both Ramos and Gonzalez could pan out?

It just seems to me that they really pain themselves into a corner picking guys that the industry is not nearly as high on. If they work out, great, but if they find themselves in a spot where trading a prospect for a ML player is something they want to do, they are stuck with guys that other teams don’t value similarly.
Keith Law: They do have a good track record with bats they liked a lot more than the industry did, though, so I don’t like to just assume they’re doing something wrong. They’ve found nice value that way in the past. The problem I see in their system is they don’t have up the middle guys with trade value.

Todd Boss: Nats Day 1 thoughts: do the picks of Romero (who has no school to go back to) and Crowe (4th yr, 3rd time drafted) indicate perhaps their attempt to save some slot dollars for a run at a prep kid today? Both players they picked have leverage issues.
Keith Law: I assume you sent this before the third round, when they took another college player, but I would have said then that Romero wasn’t going to be an under slot guy. His advisor is Boras and I’m pretty sure he’s getting slot or above.

Ryan: Re Astros’ drafting of Joe Perez: What kind of bat does he profile to have? Is his selection to move money around to grab other talent?
Keith Law: I’ll do recaps for every team in the next 48 hours, so I’ll have more detail on lots of second to fifth round picks especially. Perez is having TJ surgery this week, though, and I assume there’s a deal in place for him – he was hitting 97 and was probably going in this range of the draft anyway.

Bobby: Keith! Thanks, as always, for the chats and your great content. As a Yanks fan it is hard to be excited about their pick. I assume, as you wrote, they are not concerned w violent deliveries, as most others are. That said, can you see any logic here given who else was available? Could Schmidt at least be a cheaper sign leaving them able to go overslot later?
Keith Law: Clearly they see a starter there. Not every bad delivery guy ends up in the pen and not every good delivery guy stays healthy. What gets me on Schmidt is that he blew out and had a bad delivery and wasn’t throwing 97 until this year, so if he comes back and is at his 2016 velocity again, then do you have a mid-first-round result? I don’t think so.

Rick C: What happened to the Braves taking Vientos or Beck at #41?
Keith Law: They took someone else?
Keith Law: Serious answer – teams have LOTS of players on their boards for picks after the first one. We would rank ~50 on our main board in Toronto and then have categories for beyond that so that by the end of the meetings we had something like 400-500 magnets up. The board falls a certain way, a player’s demands change, you just make sure you’re prepared for any contingency.

John T: Looks like the Twins saved their cash for Enlow. Fair to assume that he’ll sign, seeing as how they had a day to work it out with him? If so, that’s a pretty nice move, methinks.
Keith Law: Yes, no way the first pick on day two doesn’t sign – or doesn’t already have a deal in place.

Nate: You said you thought Baz had a predraft deal with a team. Chances pretty high it was the pirates?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think so, nor do I know if he had any deal. That was the rumor in the industry, but no one knows for sure except the kid.

James: Why did Bukauskus fall to the Astros at 15? Teams worried about his size?
Keith Law: Size, delivery, little bit of fatigue at the finish. He went right around where Sonny Gray went and ahead of Marcus Stroman, two even shorter RHP from good colleges.

addoeh: Are there teams that have a history of drafting guys with certain flaws specifically because they have had a good history of correcting them?
Keith Law: I think of the White Sox with unusual delivery guys – they’re at least unconcerned with taking them. Maybe the Yankees have decided to adopt that philosophy.

Tim: How do you think the Reds have made out thus far w/ Greene, Downs, Fairchild & Heatherly?
Keith Law: And Cash Case too. Pretty strong for the first four rounds.

Alex: I think you could fit at least 10 more of your book on the shelf behind you. Go for broke!
Keith Law: That guy is still going and actually complained to the ESPN “Public Editor” (note: i have no idea who that person even is) on twitter.

Nick: Think the Cubs and A’s could partner up on something involving Gray and Candelario+? Am I overvaluing Candy?
Keith Law: I don’t see Candelario as the centerpiece of a deal like that, and the A’s have lots of players in that same bucket anyway.

Marshall MN: Can Royce Lewis develop the footwork necessary to play IF? You seem doubtful of that possibility, is there any track record of players developing that skill?
Keith Law: I’m very skeptical. At least he has to move off short. Then you end up questioning whether you are better off with the player at 2b, where he might be an average or 55 defender, or in CF, where he might develop into a 70.

ReleasetheMckraken: Regarding Brent Rooker’s position, is he truly limited to 1B? I read he can handle the OF but was playing 1st because MSU had a need.
Keith Law: Every scout I asked, even guys who liked him, told me he’s a 1b in pro ball. I haven’t seen him this year.

Nick: Not sure if you follow the NBA, but do you have any issue with Durant’s move to the Warriors? I don’t mind the transfer of talent, but players taking discounts seems to be bad for any league.
Keith Law: I know enough to know what you’re talking about and see no problem with it. Free agency means free agency. A player should be able to go where he wants for whatever reasons he wants.

Cooper: Hey Kieth, thanks for all the work you do. Daulton Varsho fascinates me. Do you think he can stick at catcher, or will he move somewhere else? And, after reading the chapter about stolen bases, how important is it to have a catcher with a good arm? It’s a nice luxury, but is it a necessity?
Keith Law: Much more important to get a good receiver/framer than thrower. Varsho was WAY off my radar – I know who he is, of course, but didn’t think he was a top 5 rounds guy.

Greg P: Keith – how do you characterize the Royals’ selection of Pratto in the 1st round? You’ve stated he’s limited to first and doesn’t have much physical projection. Was there a better selection available to them at 14?
Keith Law: I think they took him in the right range, but there were better players available, and their system is so thin right now that I would have preferred the greater asset value of either some up the middle guys or one of the top HS arms still on the board. That said, if Pratto really rakes, it’s going to be fine. He does have a great swing.

Marshall MN: Are there are any players from the first couple rounds that you would predict right now as not signing with team that drafted them? Sam Carlson seems to be a popular pick, anyone else?
Keith Law: Carlson’s going to sign. They’re all going to sign.

Aaron: In your chat yesterday you said Warmoth might be fastest to the majors. Are you higher on him than industry or is his ceiling not that high? Wondering why he was chosen somewhat lower than Haseley.
Keith Law: I didn’t say that about Warmoth. I said I liked him as someone who could move fast, but would not call him fastest to the majors.

J: Yes, they’re in a relatively unique position to take the chance, but does Kendall to the Dodgers have a chance to be the best value as pick number relative to player in the draft?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes, they’re in a good position to roll the dice on that. Lot of work to do with his swing, though.

Bill: Jim Callis threw around a rumor of the Rays letting Mckay try to pitch and hit. Lets say the experiment works and he does play both relatively well. What would that most likely look like? DH/RP, 1b/RP, or some combo of DH/1b/SP with more days off than a typical position player?
Keith Law: I tweeted yesterday that the Rays WILL let him do both. It’s not a rumor; he’ll be developed both ways, probably starting next year. My guess is that he plays 1b 3x a week and gets some rest by DHing the day before he pitches.

Steve: Brandon Little’s chance to be a starting pitcher and whats his ceiling if everything clicks?
Keith Law: I think he’s got a good chance – 40-50% – delivery isn’t ideal but has the fastball and out pitch in the CB. I saw a decent CH too.

Rick: Hey Keith. You have stated you think Royce Lewis probably ends up an outfielder by the time he reaches the majors. I’m wondering who you prefer as a prospect, Lewis or last years #1 overall, Moniak? Thanks.
Keith Law: Moniak has a higher probability of being a big leaguer but I think Lewis has more ceiling and would take him.

Joe-Nathan: Which guys drafted who immediately becoming the top prospect on their team?
Keith Law: McKay for sure. Wright maybe; depends on where Acuna ends up on my midseason list. Beck. Greene of course, although Senzel’s pretty damn good. DL Hall. I think Pratto would be too. Rogers, by default, since Garrett is hurt.

EricVA: Non-draft question: What do you think would happen (congressional reaction, DOJ reaction, public reaction) if Trump got Mueller fired?
Keith Law: Congressional Republicans will be quick to issue stern comments expressing their Grave Concern.

EricVA: Does the Yankees’ 2nd pick of Sauer make the Schmidt pick any better for you?
Keith Law: No, because I didn’t have Sauer as a top 50 guy either.

Juan: What’s the furthest you’ve ever had to drive from your hotel or an airport to scout a prospect?
Keith Law: Byron Buxton. Flew to Atlanta from Phoenix, drove to Macon, stayed the night, drove about three hours the next day to Baxley (his town), drove back to Macon, stayed the night, drove back to ATL, swapped rental cars, kept on driving to Greenville SC.

mike: There seem to be a lot of two position guys drafted at the top this year. Can you address how teams evaluate which way to go? How about the Jays saying Danner is a C to them?
Keith Law: If the two sides are close, teams nearly always choose bat first, figuring the player could always pitch later.

Marshall MN: Have you talked to people around the league to get their reaction to the Twins taking Lewis 1-1? It seemed to be an ongoing rumor for a while that it was a possibility, but from what you know did any other team have Lewis at the top of their board?
Keith Law: I can think of two teams that I believe had Lewis at 1, but it wasn’t a majority view, and the reactions I got from other teams last night and this morning weren’t favorable.

Arnold: What can you tell us about Giants 1st round pick Heliot Ramos? Is he really a 5-tool player like the Giants are claiming?
Keith Law: He is not a five-tool player.

Ryan: Do you have any information on Matt Tabor? You don’t see a lot of pitchers throwing in the high 90s in Massachusetts.
Keith Law: I do; he wasn’t a top 100 guy, and he doesn’t throw in the high 90s. Up to 95 with really bad delivery and below average breaking ball.

John: Twins fan here. With the Blayne pick should I get off the ledge that the new management team blew their first draft?
Keith Law: That’s way over the top. It’s still mid-draft. No one really has any idea how this will look in five to ten years. We just have opinions.

Dave: Keith, thanks for all your draft coverage. How excited should A’s fans be about Nick Allen? And do you like the A’s draft with up-the-middle talent?
Keith Law: Love this pick. First round talent. But the A’s didn’t go up the middle all the way – Deichmann certainly isn’t, and Merrell’s best chance to stay in the middle is in CF, not SS.

John: Why wouldn’t McKay take an underslot deal at #1 rather than falling to #4?
Keith Law: Because he could get over slot at 4.

Bret: I’m really excited about the Blue Jays selecting Logan Warmoth. If you could take a guess, where will he fit in amongst their top prospects?
Keith Law: Certainly behind Vlad and Bichette.

Dave: Are you exclusively answering draft questions today?
Keith Law: The draft is ongoing right now, so that’s going to be my focus.

Jesse: With Kyle Wright being a more advanced college arm than the Braves have been taking, where do you think he ends up pitching the remainder of this season? Starting next season?
Keith Law: Probably won’t pitch much this year period since he’s already over 100 innings, but I bet he spends the bulk of next year in AA.

Jeries: Should the White Sox move Burger to 1B immediately?
Keith Law: No reason to do that.

Tim: What kind of prospect is Heimlich? Where would he have gone if he hadn’t molested that girl?
Keith Law: I think second round. I don’t think he’ll be drafted today, if at all.

Jeries: Is Carson Fulmer a fair comp for Bukauskus? Who do you like more?
Keith Law: Bukauskas throws better strikes and his delivery isn’t violent like Fulmer’s.

CWS: What is your outlook on Spencer Adams? I remember you had him as a top 100 at one point. He doesn’t appear to be striking out many batters, but isn’t walking anyone either and his ERA and peripherals looks good.
Keith Law: I don’t think his fastball has ever gotten back to where it was in year one.

Mark: If Cincy had not taken Greene, do you think Preller would have or did he likely still favor Gore?
Keith Law: I think the Padres had them ranked Greene, Gore, McKay.

Linda: Does Peterson possibly have more in his arm? I ask mainly bc it seems all Mets pitchers somehow end up throwing a good bit harder once they hit the big leagues…..
Keith Law: Don’t think so, but given his groundball rates, I wouldn’t change anything.

Mike: What’s the knock on Burger besides defense? The stat line looks great (sorry) power, average, obp, low strikeouts
Keith Law: Defense, hasn’t faced great competition in that conference.

Guest: Thoughts on Luis Gonzalez out of New Mexico?
Keith Law: Would have gone higher but there were some late makeup concerns. Thought it was a solid value there.

Mike J: Pirates taking 4 HS players on Day 1 and now two college position players. Your thoughts so far on their draft? Thanks for your time.
Keith Law: I think they’re doing money-savers now to pay Baz, Jennings, etc.

Tom: Is Pavin Smith 1b only, or does he have a chance to move to a corner outfield spot?
Keith Law: I can’t fathom him in an outfield corner. He doesn’t move like an outfielder would.

Tyler: Hey Keith, loving Smart Baseball! Why does it matter what position a draftee is announced at? Does it impact bonus $?
Keith Law: The team asks for him to be announced at a certain position, which can tell us if they intend to move him to another position or, in the case of a two-way guy, which way they intend to start him. Perez, Danner, Greene were all two-way guys announced one way. McKay was supposed to be announced as both but MLB made a mistake.

Tim: How long until players drafted this wee can be traded? Is this another rule (like pre-draft tradeable picks) you might like to see changed in the next CBA?
Keith Law: After the World Series. I wanted this changed like ten years ago.

Tim: Who had the best breaking ball in this draft? Bukauskus slider? Hall’s curve?
Keith Law: Little’s curve.

Archie: If your son had a strong college commitment and was going to get drafted, assuming he would be offered slot money, at what point would you deem the college experience more valuable than what he would get to sign?
Keith Law: The college experience will be there after pro ball if he wants it. If he’s good enough to be drafted in the first few rounds and he wants to go play pro ball, I’d encourage him to sign.

Rob: Are you going to be on Buster’s podcast on Tuesdays from here on out, or is it a temporary thing because of draft/scouting conflicts?
Keith Law: He wanted me to come on yesterday and today to talk about the draft.

Johnny O: Grade instant draft grades on the scouting scale. I believe 20 is lowest but I think we can make an exception and go down to 0 for these useless articles (even if your editor makes you do one).
Keith Law: I have steadfastly refused to do draft grades for eleven years now.

Jeries: Why don’t minor league teams use 6 or 7 man rotations to keep IP down? Is it simply because there isn’t enough SP talent?
Keith Law: A lot of minor league teams use six-man rotations.

Aaron C.: What’s your personal policy on writing about/discussing “makeup” issues? Do you prefer to independently confirm them or do you only address them if they’ve already been publicly reported elsewhere? Thanks!
Keith Law: I rarely discuss them, because it’s dangerous. If there’s an arrest or a suspension, that’s easy. A failed drug test is pretty concrete too. But on a guy like DL Hall, where I think some scouts just didn’t like the kid very much, is that something you need to know about as readers? What if it’s bogus, but still affected where he was picked? That’s where I struggle. I’m supposed to explain to you what’s going on, but if a stupid rumor is the cause, but is just a stupid rumor, how do I present that to you all?

Brett: Kyle Hurt is still on the board. Have you heard anything on him, or is he likely heading to school at this point?
Keith Law: He missed a chunk of the spring after an ACL injury and didn’t come back at 100%, so he may just be a school guy.
Keith Law: Also, keep this in mind. If a player I ranked high doesn’t get drafted till way later, there are three likely explanations – the three M’s: Money, Medicals, or Me. He wanted too much money; there’s a bad medical report that steered teams away; or I screwed up the evaluation.

Jeries: If Hunter Greene insisted on playing the field full time and never pitching, where would he be drafted?
Keith Law: Late first round. Or maybe still top ten because some team would believe they could convince him to pitch eventually.

Joe-Nathan: Gigliotti just went to KC in the 4th, why so late? Rough start to the season but finished very well, solid obp and should be a CF.
Keith Law: Really never played that well and a slew of his hits this year were bunt singles, which doesn’t give you a ton of confidence in the stat line.

Marshall MN: In regard to Lewis’ skill set, how do they compare to Buxton’s coming out of HS? If Buxton had 80 speed and defensive potential, how would Lewis rate?
Keith Law: Buxton was way more tooled up, but Lewis probably has a better hit tool today than Buxton did at 19.

Kretin: Any insight into what is going on with Griffin Canning? Good pick by the Angels?
Keith Law: MLB reported the other day and I mentioned in my writeup this morning that teams didn’t like something on his MRI.

Alex: Do you think McKay will pitch at all this year, or exclusively hit?
Keith Law: No chance he pitches. He’s at 104 innings and Louisville is going to Omaha.

Paul: Is Drew Waters an over-slot guy? Seems like he was picked about where he was ranked, and I assume Wright will get full slot. Braves’ 3rd and 4th rounders both seemed somewhat off the board (not to say they aren’t good, just that I haven’t heard of them), so wondering if there is any room down the board to go over-slot. Thinking it would come down to what Waters gets.
Keith Law: I bet he’s an over slot guy.

Leo: Giants just selected Garret Cave. Do you think he can remain a starter or is he destined for the bullpen?
Keith Law: I would start him. He seemed totally undeveloped – not bad, not violent, just like someone who’d never been taught a proper delivery.

Jeries: What successful big leaguer were you most skeptical about turning raw power into actual game power as a prospect?
Keith Law: AJ Pollock had very little power as an amateur and ended up with quite a bit in the majors.

Robert: What percentage of time do teams not select the BPA from their draft board due to signability or bonus pool considerations?
Keith Law: I don’t know what percentage of the time that would be. Teams sometimes do that because they took BPA with an earlier pick – we went over at pick one, so we have to shave money at picks four and five. The Pirates seem to be doing that today.

Guest: Injuries occuring after the draft aside, which Mets pick do you like better as a college prospect – Peterson or Kay last yr? Are they roughly the same sort of prospect (safe, mid-rotation lefty) or is one significantly ahead of the other?
Keith Law: Peterson more than Kay. Kay was stronger but Peterson has better results and better sink.

Tallulah: Saw the Dodgers just nabbed Marinan in the 4th (your #56). Are you just higher on him or did he slip due to bonus demands?
Keith Law: He came on kind of late this spring and I think some teams had ‘finished’ with him early. He also wasn’t very consistent.

Liam: Non-draft question: I can’t access your Top 100 prospects list from ’09, ’10, ’11. Were they taken down or is there still a way to access them?
Keith Law: The site redesign swallowed a bunch of old content,

Ryan: At what point do you stop researching potential picks? Do you stop at around the top 200, or are you able to give at least a quick nugget of information on most power conference players?
Keith Law: I’ll stop after the fifth round – if a kid drafted after that wasn’t already on my radar, he might still be a prospect, but the odds of him becoming a big leaguer are pretty low.

banksy_: Would you draft a kid from Alaska?
Keith Law: Yes. Talent comes from everywhere. There’s an Alaskan kid in this class who should be drafted today.

Greg: Hi Keith! Thoughts on Kevin Smith (the baseball player)? Did decently well on the Cape last year, but overall college numbers are rather underwhelming.
Keith Law: Thought he was a 4th/5th round guy, probably utility player, just did not perform this spring in a bad conference.

Jeb: Is Garrett Mitchell also going to school?
Keith Law: I think so. He’s also a type 1 diabetic and I believe some teams were worried about that. There are very few everyday players today or in the past who were type 1 diabetics.

Drew: What do you think was the cause of Sam Carlson dropping? It seemed likely to me that he was a Twins target since they may have gone underslot and he was thought of pretty highly by a lot of evaluators. Was he overhyped or is this just a “diff’rent strokes for diff’rent folks” thing?
Keith Law: People assumed he was a Twins target because he’s local. That’s almost never true in practice. We saw a bunch of good HS arms drafted later than folks like me or Mayo had them ranked because that’s how the bonus pools work.

Rod: Any issues with Kyle Wright’s mechanics? Some Braves fans are hating the pick because of the Inverted W
Keith Law: The Inverted W is Utter Nonsense.

Charlie: Has anyone been drafted yet where your reaction was “who?”. No shame in it just curious, as someone who hasn’t know a pick since the 2nd round or so
Keith Law: Yes, the JC kid the Astros took in the 4th, Tyler Ivey. Had nothing on him. (I do now, of course.)

Dave: My brother is anti-vaccination. What can I tell him to get him on the correct side of the issue?
Keith Law: Answer every stupid falsehood with facts. And don’t stop. If he has kids, their health is at risk, perhaps even their lives.

Jace: Best player going to college so they haven’t been drafted yet?
Keith Law: Garrett Mitchell, Kyle Hurt, Adam Oviedo.

Matt: You remain a Kendall believer but if Toffey had better offensive #s across the board is past history and defensive ability the main reason he’s a 4th rd pick? Harder to fall than it is easier to rise?
Keith Law: Toffey’s just not a very good hitter. There’s no upside there.

banksy_: What other arm actions/delivery flaws (i.e. Inverted W) are also nonsense? Any come to mind that are pushed hard throughout the public or industry?
Keith Law: The idea that short pitchers were more likely to get hurt is still around. I have never bought that. My issue with short P is that they need to be able to get the ball down. But I know of no evidence that they get hurt any more often than medium to tall pitchers do.

CVD: You a Will Crowe guy?
Keith Law: I like him. I don’t have to sift through his medicals, though.

Dave: I’m an adult stutterer. I can control it most of the time but I do a lot of delay tactics and things to avoid speaking. Anxiety goes hand in hand with it. Do you have any tips to share? Whether it be something to read, breathing exercises to do etc.
Keith Law: I’ve recommended the book Fully Present to a lot of people – you may find the breathing and mindfulness tips in there useful too.

Jeries: What innings limit should the Sox look at for Kopech? 65 IP in 2015, 56 IP in 2016, and 62 IP already this year.
Keith Law: I don’t really know the science behind this – whether there’s any at all, to be honest. This idea of N+30 or N+50 or whatever, some fixed number above the previous year … if there’s real research demonstarting its value, I haven’t seen it. The claim by one writer that increasing year over year by 30+ innings has been debunked. So with Kopech – I wouldn’t push him excessively, not 150 or something, but I wouldn’t panic if he gets to 100 or 120. And remember he probably pitched more than just those 56 last year if you consider sim games or extended spring.

Benny: Are the Reds the big winners of the draft so far? What do you think about Stuart Fairchild- especially with Waters still on the board?
Keith Law: I don’t like to name winners or losers on draft day. It’s hot-take-ish. I liked Fairchild and Waters would have required a bigger bonus.

MRA: Is there anything to like in the Cardinals picks in rounds 3 (Hurst), 4 (Robertson) or 5 (Kirtley)? Thank you.
Keith Law: They had no money to spend so I’m loath to be too critical. I didn’t rank any of those guys or have them close to the top 100.

Jeff Sessions: And I perjure myself in 3….2….
Keith Law: I’m glad I have the draft to distract me from our crumbling republic.

Ed: Do the Cubs draft a player like Lange with the expectation that they can clean up his delivery? If so, does that often work?
Keith Law: I hope not. That’s faulty logic – and I would be shocked if the Cubs thought that. I bet they saw Lange as a fast to the majors reliever – i heard that from a bunch of scouts this spring.

Charlie: Lucas Giolito thoughts? Seems to be really making some strides as of late, but obviously could just be some SSS
Keith Law: I have heard the delivery is much closer to where it was in 2015.

Drew: How quick could Rooker move? He’s old but I don’t know how that translates to a minor league assignment. Do they move him to AA?
Keith Law: Doesn’t he have to? He’s older than five current big league hitters (I think). Sending him to low-A seems futile.

Kevin: Thoughts on the Tigers 2nd rd pick Reynaldo Rivera. Gigantic dude, but didn’t see him on any of your list.
Keith Law: For good reason. Gigantic, strong, but substantial questions about his hit tool.

Matt: I think a good argument to make for MLB being the hardest sport to play is the fact that the players getting drafted often don’t appear in the majors for 3-5 years. Imagine the Patriots drafting Tom Brady and he doesn’t get to be QB until 2007?
Keith Law: But then we wouldn’t have had deflate-a-lago and all the bloviating that generated … and I think to myself … what a wonderful world.
Keith Law: OK, I have some draft recaps to write. Thank you all for your questions today and yesterday and for reading all my draft content. I will not chat again this week but should be back to my regular slot next Thursday. Look for my team-by-team draft recaps (focusing on the top five rounds) starting tomorrow!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

Archives