The dish — Page 142 — The collected thoughts of sportswriter, bookworm, & food critic Keith Law

→ July 10, 2017
→ By keith

Miami eats.

My recap of the 2017 Futures Game is now up for Insiders.

Downtown Miami itself is … not that great, really. The city was badly overmatched by the traffic and crowds in town for the weekend, with cops stationed at many corners but not doing anything to direct traffic or stop the many drivers doing illegal things (right turn from the left lane, blowing through red lights). I ended up spending most of my free time in the artsy Wynwood area, which seems to be the booming neighborhood for food, bars, and culture.

Lung Yai Thai Tapas is not really a tapas place, but it does indeed appear to be a Thai place, and I’d read several glowing reviews before my trip. I also rarely eat Thai food at or near home, since my wife is allergic to shellfish and Thai cuisine has a lot of hidden shellfish (oyster sauce, shrimp paste) in its recipes. Lung Yai’s lunch menu had mostly familiar dishes, so I went with the green papaya salad and with the first dish in the ‘chef’s recommendations’ section, khao soi gai, a northern Thai noodle dish served like a soup, with a coconut milk-curry sauce over boiled egg noodles and chicken, with crispy fried noodles on top. My experience with northern Thai dishes is pretty limited, but the khao soi had a huge umami base with the natural sweetness of the coconut and the flavors of yellow curry without any heat. It’s a tiny spot, with maybe 15 seats around a long counter, in a rundown neighborhood, but the food justified the trip out of my way. I’ve seen comments online that there’s a soup-Nazi atmosphere here, with rules you have to follow, but service was friendly and attentive, and if there were unwritten rules I guess I didn’t break any.

Kyu is an uber-trendy see-and-be-seen sort of restaurant that happens to serve great food, although it certainly wasn’t my sort of scene, and the front of house staff had a little bit of that “we’re doing you a favor by letting you eat here” vibe that drives me up a wall. But the food itself was worth the wait. Their duck breast “burnt ends” is really just a slow-smoked duck breast that develops a bbq char on the outside of the skin and the texture of a high-quality pork chop in the center despite being cooked through (which would ordinarily dry a duck breast out). I think there was five-spice in the rub and/or the sauce it’s served on, which, by the way, is all it’s served on: you get a large duck breast cut into slices and that’s it. I had ordered one side, the grilled baby bok choy with crispy garlic and chiles, which is the best bok choy dish I’ve ever had – garlic and chile are the two main flavor affinities for bok choy anyway, but this version had multiple textures and really crushed the salt-spice component. The garlic was there but didn’t overpower the dish, which I think is often a copout for dark green vegetable preparations. Kyu is particularly well known for their coconut cake, with what I think is a cream cheese-based icing (it was sweet and a little tangy, not just straight sweet), served with a scoop of coconut ice cream, and I can vouch that 1) it was amazing in every aspect and 2) when it showed up there was suddenly a lot of attention from the folks sitting and standing around me.

Panther Coffee is the best-known third-wave roaster in south Florida, maybe in all of Florida, and they do both outstanding espresso and some unique varietals for pour-over preparations. The espresso was bright and balancced with a ton of body, just lacking that sweetness that some of my favorite espressos (Blue Bottle in particular) offer. For a pour-over, I tried a Tanzanian that had a lot of berry and stone fruit notes but not the citrus of a lot of East African beans. Panther also has a big selection of high-quality pastries – I had a croissant, because coffee on an empty stomach is not a pleasant experience for me – from area bakeries, including some donuts that looked like little works of art.

I had drinks on Sunday night with longtime friend Will Leitch, which we realized is probably the longest conversation we’ve ever had in person despite knowing each other for a really long time. (I first met him when he did a reading for his book God Save the Fan in LA, so that had to be the spring of 2008.) We met up at the bar portion of Edge Steak & Bar inside the Four Seasons, which is actually not priced like a Four Seasons hotel restaurant might be and has a great bar menu of small plates as well as an enormous whiskey selection if you’re inclined to that sort of spirit. I tried two dishes – the bay scallop crudo with grapefruit, pomegranate seeds, and cucumbers, which had the perfect acid/sweet ratio; and the tostones with an avocado spread that was kind of a mild guacamole, also very good but on the heavy side. I can also verify that two of their Boulevardier cocktails, in essence a negroni with rye, were enough that I was glad I hadn’t driven to the hotel.

I left first thing Monday morning, but if I’d had one more dinner in Miami I would have tried to get to Niu Kitchen, a tapas place specializing in regional Spanish dishes, with jamón iberico and boquerones on the menu. That’ll have to wait for a scouting trip down there next year.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: coffee, dessert, florida, miami, thai cuisine

→ July 8, 2017
→ By keith

The Beguiled.

Sofia Coppola won the Best Director prize at this year’s Cannes festival for The Beguiled, making her just the second woman ever to win that honor (which is sort of an ‘honorable mention’ next to the Palme d’Or, which has only gone to a woman once in 70 years) and I would expect making her a very likely nominee for the same Oscar category. The film didn’t quite live up to that kind of billing for me, but is still very good, a thought-provoking, moody, well-shot and extremely well-acted movie that suffers just slightly from a thin and not entirely credible plot.

The story takes place in 1863 at a Virginia ‘seminary’ for girls, really more of a boarding and finishing school, run by Martha Farnsworth (Nicole Kidman) with help from teacher Edwina Morrow (Kirsten Dunst), with five pupils remaining after others’ parents have pulled them out. The girls are also the school’s staff, as the slaves also fled the fighting in the area, with troops passing by the large estate that houses the school regularly over the course of the film’s 94 minutes. As the story opens, one of the youngest students finds Corporal John McBurney (Colin Farrell), a wounded Union soldier unable to walk, and brings him back to the house, where Martha decides to take him in and help him recover from a bullet wound to his leg before turning him over to Confederate troops or even passing Union soldiers. The introduction of a male contaminant into the all-female household has some predictable results, as sexual tensions and internecine rivalries spring up between the women, with the younger girls all flirting or just plain acting silly while the oldest three – Martha, Edwina, and Alicia – show signs of real attraction to the convalescent, who, by the way, isn’t real keen to get back to the front himself. Of course, this can’t abide, and eventually the pot simmers over and someone gets hurt, which turns the movie from a genteel and often funny look at gender dynamics into a dark, psychological thriller that pits the Corporal against the women and flips the power balance back and forth in the last half-hour of the film.

The performances sell this movie more than the story does; I am no expert at spotting movie twists, but the moment the key element in the story’s resolution appeared on screen, I knew what Coppola was showing us. But the three main women and Farrell all deliver right-tail level performances in their roles, especially Kidman and Dunst, whose characters have more nuance than Fanning, who is just frighteningly seductive despite rarely doing anything beyond looking at McBurney or the camera. (It kills me that the voice of Mei from My Neighbor Totoro is now making sexy eyes in grown-up movies.) Martha is the head of the school and the house, a woman in control who confesses to the corporal how exhausted she is by the role and, I presume, by the lack of anyone else in whom she might confide. Her attraction to the patient is slower to build and more reluctant, while Edwina exposes herself as the more miserable character, one whose romantic innocence doesn’t line up with her worldly upbringing. Both Kidman and Dunst fill out the corners of these characters with little aspects like Kidman’s clipped speech or Dunst’s mournful, almost haggard expressions, communicating their attractions to McBurney almost entirely through non-verbal and still era-appropriate body language and gestures.

Farrell’s character is less nuanced – it becomes clear after a bit that he’s playing the women individually, altering his language and tone to flatter each of them, even the children who are just mesmerized by the presence of a man, but it’s only after the major plot event around the two-thirds mark that Farrell gets to do something more than turning on the charm. This character has been deeply affected by what he’s seen and suffered at the front, but none of that surfaces until it’s provoked. Between In Bruges, The Lobster, and now The Beguiled, Farrell’s certainly shown remarkable acting prowess along with a willingness to take on some unconventional roles.

The Beguiled is also remarkable to look at, with lush sets and hazy, dark lighting that accentuates the moody nature of the script and its characters. The house is dim in the daytime and forbidding at night, while the characters are often surrounded by a slight fog or smoke that might be coming from nearby battles (we frequently hear gun and cannon fire in the distance). There are some exceptional close shots showing detail in the dresses and jewelry worn by the women, as well as some tremendous shots outside the house in the garden and the nearby forest. The two large scenes at the dinner table are incredibly evocative between the candlelight, the details of the table itself – even something as simple as one of the girls pouring wine from a decanter – and the visual transformation of the girls as they all get dressed up to impress their guest.

The story itself is based on a novel (originally titled A Painted Devil) by Thomas Cullinan and was previously filmed in 1971, and while Coppola has made a film that puts the women more at the center of the story, the plot remains a little thin. I mentioned the predictable ending above, and there’s also a gun that disappears and suddenly reappears as needed in a different character’s possession later in the film, with no explanation of how that happened other than that it was necessary for the plot. Edwina’s actions in the final third of the film also seem to come out of nowhere, or at least to be incongruous with what happened before in a way that I don’t think gives her character enough emotional consistency to seem real.

The Beguiled works because of the performances and the visual style, enough that I’d recommend it if you can enjoy a movie that brings you something beyond plot. If your tastes in movies are story-driven, this one just didn’t hold me; it feels like a short story stretched into 94 minutes rather than a novel condensed into that window. It lurches too much from A to B to C for me to give it a full recommendation, perhaps a result of my own obsession with plot constructions in literature, so that I left feeling like I would praise the actors involved for weeks but could give the entire plot with spoilers on one side of a 3×5 index card.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2017 movies, cannes winners, movies

→ July 8, 2017
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 7/8/17.

For Insiders this week, I previewed the Futures Game and broke down some of the worst omissions from the All-Star rosters. I held a Klawchat on Friday.

On the non-baseball front, I reviewed the high-strategy boardgame Great Western Trail for Paste this week. I also have a new piece up at Vulture looking at how the TV show Orphan Black has used boardgames as an integral part of several episodes.

Thanks to everyone who’s already bought Smart Baseball; sales spiked this month between Father’s Day and the positive review in the Wall Street Journal. I’ve got book signings coming up:

* Miami, Books and Books, today at 3 pm
* Harrisburg, Midtown Scholar, July 15th
* Berkeley, Books Inc., July 19th
* Chicago, Volumes, July 28th, 7:30 pm
* GenCon (Indianapolis), August 17th-20th

If you’re with an independent bookstore and would like to host a signing, please contact Danielle Bartlett at HarperCollins; we’re trying to accommodate everyone we can within my work schedule. I’m talking to one store about a signing/talk in Brooklyn (along with another author) in August or early September.

And now, the links…

The headline may be salacious, but the problem is serious: Antibiotic-resistant gonorrhea is spreading, due in large part to unprotected sex (including oral sex), resulting in some patients with untreatable cases. And given what we know about horizontal gene transfer in bacteria, this should terrify you even if you aren’t at risk of contracting this particular disease.
Longread of the week: Nathan Fenno, who wrote the definitive piece on Rays prospect turned accused murderer Brandon Martin, has another, similar piece, on former NFL player De’von Hall, who killed his mother during an argument, apparently after a quick decline into mental illness and homelessness.
Digg has a riveting first-person account of post-partum psychosis. The girl who grew up next door to me, two years my senior, took her own life about a decade ago a few days after giving birth, the result of post-partum psychosis.
James Beard winner Sean Brock, the celebrity chef behind Husk (Charleston, Nashville, and soon two more locations), opened up to the New York Times about getting sober after friends staged an intervention around his drinking.
Bloomberg profiled a strange, remote, popular hotel on Newfoundland’s Fogo Island in a piece from May of 2016. The photos are as incredible as the story.
WIRED looks at the unlikely rise of mathematician June Huh, who didn’t come to mathematics until college and is doing his best work now at age 34, well past the typical peak years of most mathematicians. Clearly we should be testing him for Proof Enhancing Drugs.
From Gizmodo, why people with implanted medical devices should fear automatic doors and the general rise of devices operating in the same frequency ranges as, say, brain implants or pacemakers.
Austin is a rare bastion of progressive thought and policy in Texas, a state with one of the country’s most reactionary governments, leading to conflict between the citizens of the state’s capital and the politicians working in it, particularly over “preemption laws,” whereby states tell cities and counties they can’t pass certain ordinances or enact policies that might run counter to what the state governments want.
A white man shot and killed an 18-year-old black woman in a road rage incident in Pennsylvania last week. It doesn’t appear their races played a role in the crime, but they seem to have affected the news coverage of the incident. David Desper had a permit for the 40-caliber semi-automatic he (is alleged to have) used to kill Bianca Robertson.
A Kenyan woman told the BBC how she missed her own wedding because she’d been abducted and gang-raped outside of Nairobi.
Flights in the southern US (and beyond) are increasingly facing high-heat delays due to climate change, which our current federal Administration still denies even exists.
John Le Carré gave a speech, transcribed in the Guardian, extolling the virtues of learning German in a post-Brexit world, although I think his points can apply to anyone learning any foreign language. Not only does it facilitate communication, but different languages can express different concepts and can give the speaker new perspectives.
Are humans insignificant in the cosmos, and if so, does life have meaning? A fellow of philosophy and epistemology examines a question often reserved for clergy and theologians.
Eighteen states are suing the Department of Education for delaying implementation of a rule aimed at helping students conned by for-profit universities. For-profit colleges aren’t necessarily bad, but the field is certainly ripe for scams, particularly since federal aid is so easy to come by.
The Guardian‘s editorial page also came out in favor of mandatory childhood vaccinations, while accurately comparing modern anti-vaccine movements to the religious fundamentalists – the article mentions the Taleban, but Christian Scientists have the same bad beliefs – who also oppose vaccinations.
Lindy West, who deleted her Twitter account in January due to the service’s refusal to deal with abusive trolls, writes about how the same class of trolls threatens free speech rights.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: charleston, climate change, links, math, stick to baseball, texas, vaccines

→ July 7, 2017
→ By keith

Klawchat, 7/7/17.

New content: I reviewed the boardgame Great Western Trail for Paste this week, and previewed the Futures Game for Insiders. I also have a new piece up at Vulture looking at how the TV show Orphan Black has used boardgames as an integral part of several episodes.

I’ll be at Books and Books in Coral Gables, Florida, on Saturday at 3 pm to discuss my new book Smart Baseball and sign copies for readers.

Keith Law: Klawchat: One man on a lonely platform.

Eddy: If we want to say hi during futures game, when would be the best time? And where?
Keith Law: After BP is done, which is usually about an hour before game time, I’ll find a spot on the concourse to meet folks. If anyone has a suggestion for a good location – I’ve never set foot in Loria’s Boondoggle before – I’m all ears.

Jack: Who among the A’s young position players is likely to see success in the big leagues? Other than Barreto and Chapman, are any of Pinder/Healy/Olson/Brugman/Maxwell likely to be MLB regulars or better?
Keith Law: I would not bet on any of those five guys, individually, becoming average big leaguers.

Philip: What have you heard about Logan Allen’s stuff this year? Could he merit offseason top 100 consideration?
Keith Law: I’ve heard it’s been good like it was last year, but if I say he’ll get consideration for the top 100, that’s kind of a non-answer because I consider hundreds of players.

Jim: Is there a way to read your work without receiving gay porn in the mail?
Keith Law: I don’t care for or about the body issue, but characterizing non-explicit photos as “gay porn” is a little dramatic.

Shawn: Does Forrest Whitley have ace potential? Ken Rosenthal said he’s hearing that Whitley is basically untouchable in trade with the Astros.
Keith Law: He’s got pretty high upside, clearly a top 50 guy at this point. Hard to call any teenaged pitcher “untouchable” given how fragile arms are.

Greg: As a fan following GCL/AZL leagues, I know there’s not a ton of value in the stats — if any at all. Is there anything of value in the numbers of a player in those leagues?
Keith Law: The problem is the wide variance in levels of competition makes the stats almost impossible to interpret without scouting context. Look at Dante Bichette Jr’s GCL line from 2011: he was 18, hit .342/.446/.505 with a strikeout rate around 16%, and has been awful ever since. In 900 PA in AA he’s got a .233/.310/.343 line.

Hank: Max Fried has been horrible this year, and there are reports of the stuff not being as good this season. Have you heard anything?
Keith Law: I have heard multiple reports that the stuff is every bit as good as it was last year. I have no idea where you’re getting that info.

Coolguy: Thought’s on Austin Hays?
Keith Law: I think average regular, trending upwards as he continues to hit better pitching.

Fred: Bellinger’s HR production has dropped significantly the last couple of weeks. Realistically, the previous pace was not sustainable, and I assume the league has made adjustments, and now its his turn to do same. Given that the overall AB quality looks good, he should start hitting them out again in time, agree? Also, what kind of ceiling for him is realistic?
Keith Law: I think he’s a regular 30-HR guy who’ll have a few 40+ seasons, with strong OBPs and ridiculous defense at first. MVP type of player.

Jshep12: Yankee brass anonymously criticizing Bird for being hurt. Warranted or are they jerks?
Keith Law: Jerks. Even if it’s true, don’t slag your players to the press. And put your fucking name on it if you do it, you cowards.

Bill: Do you believe Maikel Franco will ever be good enough to start on a good team?
Keith Law: I think he still has the potential but he’s shown no adjustments in almost two years now.

Coolguy: If Carter Kieboom comes back soon and continues to hit could he still make to p100 lists, or has he missed too much time?
Keith Law: There are a lot of ifs in there that make it hard to answer. Even if he misses the rest of the season, it might be difficult to justify putting him on my top 100, but lack of information isn’t the same as negative information. He would still be a good prospect, but I would be working with less evidence (stats and scouting) to justify a high ranking.

Matt: Does Joe Gray have 1-1 potential
Keith Law: Yes, from what I’ve seen/heard.

Esteban: Is Daniel Brito a riser for you? Is he someone you’ve gotten any eyes on?
Keith Law: Yes, I saw him last week. Completely overmatched. Very interesting projection, but he looked like a kid playing grown-ups.

Stomper: Austin Beck is off to a putrid start in Rookie ball – be concerned? SSS? Other factors like an 18 y/o living on his own? All of the above?
Keith Law: Just the contact rate – he never faced good pitching as an amateur, missing the 2016 summer due to injury and playing weak competition this spring (I saw his school win a 15-0 game via mercy rule in 3 innings, and he got 4 PA). But he could whiff 40% of the time this summer and still end up a good player – it depends on whether he can make any adjustments to his approach now that he’s 1) swinging a wood bat and 2) facing guys with better stuff on a semi-regular basis.

Rob: Favorite QOTSA album? Era Vulgaris is last, but I can see an argument for every other album of theirs being best.
Keith Law: I don’t know that I’ve ever loved any of their albums start to finish; I tend to like 3-5 tracks from every record. Era Vulgaris had the most songs that I liked, but I don’t know if any song from that record makes my QotSA top five.

AlmostSmartBaseball: Eloy Jimenez untouchable for you?
Keith Law: No. If you can get a young, high-end starter with some years of control left, you trade him. And I think Eloy is a future superstar, too.

Mike: What’s been your assessment of Alex Wood? Is he this good or is this not sustainable?
Keith Law: He’s got very little history of health, and is now throwing harder than before, so I think he’ll continue to dominate as long as he can stay on the mound but am skeptical that he can do that all year.

Benjamin: What would you say is Royce Lewis’ ceiling?
Keith Law: A 60 overall player as a CF – a sometime All-Star who adds value on defense, with his bat, and especially on the bases.

James Williams: Any suggestions you could give to a 23 year old trying to figure out what they want to do in life?
Keith Law: Find something you love to do and see if there’s any potential for a career in it. Many people don’t get that opportunity at all, but you’re young enough to give it one shot.

Jerry: I got rid of my cable specifically because of ESPN. Chord cutting and ESPN’s general crapiness are not independent of one another. What’s it like to work for a failing company?
Keith Law: You seem to have some issues, not the least of which is your atrocious command of the language. ESPN isn’t failing and Disney, which is my actual employer (my paychecks say Disney, my benefits are Disney), is thriving.

Benjamin: What is Brent Rooker’s potential?
Keith Law: I think there’s a low probability of him hitting enough high-level pitching to be a regular, but that potential is there – he could be a regular at 1b/dh. The swing itself is fine and he’s strong as heck.

Nick: Bobby Bradley seems to be getting better as the year goes on, any chance he makes enough contact in the majors to be a starting 1B?
Keith Law: Any chance, yes, but a low one. Didn’t look good when I saw him last month, especially in terms of picking up pitches.

James: Do you think players like Fulmer and Aaron Nola will be available at the deadline for huge returns?
Keith Law: I would be surprised if either was traded.

Nate : Keith, Chicago media is pumping Collins defensive improvement. Have you heard anything to validate this?
Keith Law: Not at all.

Kris: What are the chances of Aaron Blair and Jake Thompson regaining their footing on possible MLB careers?
Keith Law: I’d give Blair more of a chance than Thompson, but both have lost stuff, not just results, and I don’t know why or when to forecast a pitcher recovering lost velocity.

John: I have read several articles about the ball 100% being juiced this year. What say you?
Keith Law: I interviewed Rob Arthur (538) on the BBTN pod yesterday, and he mentioned the Ringer article on the same topic. The evidence is quite clear. The ball is different, enough to explain more than half of the rise in HR.

Todd Boss: How is Seth Romero getting an overslot deal? He has no college team to return to and all these well-known character issues. What leverage does he have?
Keith Law: I think some teams told players pre-draft, “we’ll give you $x if you get to our pick, so tell teams above us you won’t sign.” That’s not legal, of course, but everyone does it and I don’t see any harm at all in it. However, if you picked above Washington and liked Romero, wouldn’t you just take him and dare him to turn you down? Maybe give him Matt Harrington’s phone number? Or Karsten Whitson’s?

Jon: Any concerns over Austin Meadows’ injury history?
Keith Law: Yes, very much so.

Jon Orr: What’s Jack Flaherity’s upside and when can Cards fans expect to see him up?
Keith Law: It’s mid-rotation/average starter sort of stuff, with plus command. I would like to see him Sunday vs the good World bats to see how guys who haven’t seen him before seem to pick up the ball out of his hand; he’s always had a very clean delivery, but I don’t know how much deception is there. I do like him quite a bit, just not sure how high the upside is.

Brian: Bashing JP Crawford and downgrading his potential has become a common media theme in recent weeks. But does his performance since a week on the DL indicate that he’s a young guy who was pressing and just needed a break and is now reverting to the mean for someone with his natural talent?
Keith Law: I can’t and won’t speak to what anyone else might have said about him. I can tell you I am getting consistent, negative feedback from scouts who’ve seen him, saying he’s swinging too far uphill and isn’t playing the same caliber of defense as in the past.

Jon V : What are your early thoughts on Zimmer at the major league level?
Keith Law: I think he’s been as expected – solid vs RHP, atrocious vs LHP.

fortekay: Klaw! Thomas Nido made the futures game and Pat Mazeika is having a big offensive year (even if he’s a bit older for the league). Either long term options at Catcher?
Keith Law: Nido at least as a backup. Mazeika less. Hasn’t held up since the hot start and he’s too old for A-ball.

Jake: Buxton seems to have figured some things out. Swing looks shorter, eliminating some holes. Have you seen the changes and do you think they are sustainable?
Keith Law: I do think so – better swing decisions, better contact in the zone.

John: Hey Keith. Anything new to report on Alec Hansen. Was looking at his numbers and he is just dominating guys. But that is reading the stat line. Do you think he has legit #1 upside or more like 2 or 3?
Keith Law: He dominated guys in low-A, where he was last year, and has been fair in 3 high-A starts. Stuff is huge, command not there yet.

Evan: Is it time to start worrying about Thomas Szapucki with his injuries?
Keith Law: No.

Mike Mitchell: Is there an argument for the Astros to do nothing? They have 5 of the top 57 in Baseball America’s update. The playoffs are a crapshoot. Long window. Why shorten it?
Keith Law: I think the argument for pushing now is that they may never be this good again in the window, even if they have other good years. It’s rare to be in this comfortable a position in July, so Luhnow can patch around the edges and focus on acquisitions likely to improve their October odds.

Your fan: Healy not likely to be an average MLB regular? that’s a bit of a surprise……
Keith Law: It’s a surprise that a bad defensive 3b with a .304 OBP isn’t an average regular?

Matthew: Can we talk about Jose Ramirez? You seemed to be higher on him than most (IIRC, he was on a “just missed” top 100 list), but I don’t think anyone saw this coming, right? Last 365 days, 144 wRC+???
Keith Law: He was on a just missed list, then wasn’t eligible the next year when he might have made the list, but no, I would never have forecasted this kind of star-level offense from him. Thought he’d be a good player, but if I thought he’d be this, I would have been way more aggressive.

Paul: I’ve been really excited reading the box scores for Gohara this year. I watched him for the first time last night, and I’d read that he was large, but he’s even bigger than I thought. Can that body work and hold up as a big league starter?
Keith Law: I’m not concerned about the body as much as the fact that he’s been throwing so hard at such a young age. I guess eventually he could have knee and back issues from his size – he looks like CC Sabathia already – but for now it’s just arm health and command that I’d focus on .

Derek: Brian Goodwin has been playing well at the MLB level recently. Has the former top-75 prospect regained some of his luster? What do you expect going forward? Related, who do you like more for the Nats in 2018 – Goodwin or Michael A. Taylor (who also has been hitting well, though may be coasting on some BABIP fuel). MAT can clearly stick in CF. Can Goodwin? So far the arm looks plus but what about Goodwin’s range?
Keith Law: I think there’s some SSS going on with Goodwin, but at least he’s turning on good fastballs again. I’d like to know where his speed went – dude was a plus runner as an amateur. Would probably bet on Taylor over Goodwin going forward.

Derek: The Nats aren’t foolish enough to give up Robles for a reliever, are they? Soto, too, has to be untouchable in a reliever trade, right?
Keith Law: Don’t think Robles is going anywhere. Soto’s intriguing but the guy has barely played this year and is still on the DL (now rehabbing in the GCL). If he’s untouchable too, what do they have left to make a big move? I think that’s tantamount to saying you’re not going to swing a Miller/Chapman type of trade.

Evan: What are you thoughts on Mets first rounder David Peterson?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter type. Big groundball guy, deception, average fastball, can really pitch – feel, command, control. Thought he was a little light for a first-round pick but I think the industry as a whole valued him in the top 20.

Joe: I’m assuming Ryan Mountcastle ends up in the OF but how good of a prospect would he be if he hypothetically played just average defense at SS?
Keith Law: If he were capable of playing average D at short he probably wouldn’t hit like he does.

Mike M: Is J.B. Bukauskas a top 100 guy? The Astros sure love drafting electric two-pitch guys and insisting on starting them.
Keith Law: He’ll probably be on the back of the list; anyone I’ve ranked in the top 10 in a draft class who has signed right away has made a subsequent top 100 barring something catastrophic (like surgery).

Ryan: I keep hearing Cards draft pick Fuller being referred to as “intriguing.” Do you have any additional insight on him?
Keith Law: I wrote him up in the Cards draft report. There’s some Larry Green comparisons there.

Jay: Planning a board game night with my 6 year old son and some of his friends. Some suggestions?
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride would be appropriate for that age. Mole Rats in Space is a great coop game that you could probably play with them, just giving them a little guidance.

BobbyL: Can Juan Soto make a jump into top 20 range by the end of the season
Keith Law: I said this last week too – people in general want their own prospects to be too high. Look at the typical top 20: it’s guys who are performing at a huge level for their ages, guys who were very high picks/big bonus kids, or otherwise guys with plus tools.

Logan: If you’re the Jays, 4.5 back in the WC, do you sell or buy at the deadline?
Keith Law: Probably sell.

Isaac: Have you had a chance to see Maitan yet, any initial reactions other than his original write ups. Obviously he just got in games, but hadn’t heard anything from extended
Keith Law: I haven’t. I think he’s played 2-3 games.

Al : Really enjoyed the podcast yesterday. You’re truly great in that format. What can your readers do to get you a regular podcast?
Keith Law: Thank you – it was great to be at the helm and to get back together with Eric. ESPN doesn’t run many podcasts, however; they’ve decided at a corporate level that it’s not an area for investment.

Matt: The Orioles appear to not be signing Conlon. How does that happen? Don’t they agree to a number prior to the selection?
Keith Law: Sometimes one side or the other changes their minds post-draft. Also, it sounds like they’re going to go way over for Cameron Bishop, a UC-Irvine starter who missed the whole spring with a strained oblique* but has been dealing on the Cape with an average fastball and two plus secondary pitches. (*Bishop strains his oblique and doesn’t pitch for four months. Clarke Schmidt at South Carolina strains his oblique, misses one start, comes back to throw 100+ pitches a few times and then blows out his elbow. Weird.)

Jason: Fair to say that the whole “voter fraud” phenomenon is the Rs way of trying to insulate against the coming demographic wave that (if they don’t change their message) is going to wash over them?
Keith Law: I interpret it as “we’re going to purge voter rolls of people who aren’t likely to vote for us.”

fortekay: Best Futures Game prospect no one has really heard of?
Keith Law: Yordan Alvarez.

Dave: How is Greene not signed yet? Chances he doesn’t sign?
Keith Law: Doesn’t matter until the deadline. I believe he’ll sign.

Larry: As a University of Florida baseball fan, I’m curious your thoughts on Brady McConnell. I know he was a top-100 draft prospect, but what kind of player is he?
Keith Law: More tools/athleticism than performance. Could develop into a first-rounder if he hits, but I saw a guy who couldn’t wait to swing at the first strike he saw.

John: There’s been plenty of talk about Rosario; but, how far away is Dom Smith? September? 2018? Thanks!
Keith Law: Ready this fall, but I’m sure the Mets will wait a good three or four more years just to be on the safe side.

AJ: Have you heard anything about Jesus Luzardo recently? Eric Longenhagen said he was throwing in the mid 90s.
Keith Law: I believe it. He was doing that pre-injury too.

Mark: Hi Keith – my sister is moving to Milan and I’m looking to get her some (translated) Italian novels as a parting gift. So far my ideas are The Betrothed (Manzoni), The Leopard (Tomasi), and Christ Stopped at Eboli (Levi). Do you have any (other) recommendations that give nice background/introduction on Italian/Milanese culture? Thanks!
Keith Law: Perhaps the Elena Ferrante novels? I also liked Alessandro Piperno’s books, but they are weird and in some ways a little testosterone-fueled like Portnoy’s Complaint (Roth is a clear influence).

Tye: Would someone like Stroman, Gray, or Archer be a reasonable get for the Twins?
Keith Law: It makes absolutely no sense for the Twins to trade prospects for major-league help right now.

Your fan: One thing that surprised me about your book is that you didn’t discuss the value of traditional scouting more as online you’re a big advocate for those skills.
Keith Law: I gave scouting a whole chapter in a book about analytics.

Will: Lucas Sims still a reliever for you?
Keith Law: Yes, more likely than starter.

Tye: Has Zack Granite changed his prospect status from fringe prospect to an actual one with his play this season?
Keith Law: No.

Mike M: K. Tucker, Franklin Perez and Martes for Gerrit Cole. Who says no?
Keith Law: Doubt the Astros would consider that. Tucker is ridiculously good for his age. Actually, so is Perez.

romorr: Cedric Mullins a future regular, or 4th OFer?
Keith Law: Probably a fourth OF but a real (nonzero) chance he’s a regular. Kind of undersized but strong for his build.

Morris: We all got a chuckle out of bookcase-gate. But it wasn’t really funny at all – the guy got on your case because he’s an Oregon State fan that didn’t like what you said about Luke Heimlich. That seems incredibly dangerous to me – the rush to defend someone who molested a girl aged 4-6 because he’s good at baseball.
Keith Law: I saw some of his other tweets about Heimlich and he was kind of a truther – not denying the crime, but handwaving it away as something that’s over, that no one should be concerned about going forward, which at the very least is a naive interpretation of events about which none of us knows very much at all.

Steve: How concerned are you over Anderson Espinoza’s lingering injury? How much of it is legitimate worry about a smaller pitcher who throws that hard, albeit with an easy delivery? How much might be the Padres just trying to manage his innings?
Keith Law: He’s not small, but I wonder if they’re delaying the inevitable here. He’s going to miss the entire summer anyway.

Scott: What should oakland do with Alonso? Is he an ok guy to offer something like 3/36 to?
Keith Law: Age 30, so no, I wouldn’t.

Steve: What do you think of the O’s strategy to sell off all of their international signing pool money?
Keith Law: I think it’s awful but it’s par for the course for that org. You can’t ignore an entire swath of the player pool and suffer no consequences.

Jason: Talk dirty to me about Fernando Tatis. Star or Superstar?
Keith Law: I would say ‘likely’ to star with a chance to be a superstar. Scouts are all in. I saw him in March and physically he reminds me a lot of Machado at that age.

Greg: Is it time for the Pirates to move Chad Kuhl to the bullpen?
Keith Law: If they have a better option for the spot, yes. I don’t think Kuhl can start, never did.

Johnny O: Chance Adams? I can only scout the stat line but he’s been promoted to AAA and jumped into BA’s midseason top 100. What have you seen/heard about him?
Keith Law: Performer, not big ceiling, get very mixed opinions from scouts, definitely a big league starter.

Nick: Thanks for the continued hard work, Keith. Have you hard anything more about Lucas Giolito’s mechanics and delivery?
Keith Law: Mechanics largely back to where they were and his velocity is up again. Just not consistent start to start like he needs to be.

Steve: I once hit a homerun in Little League the day after we got our flu shots. So flu shots must cause power breakouts. I’ll make a YouTube video and soon everyone will agree.
Keith Law: If you ever want to see some of the most facepalm-inducing arguments ever, check out that mammoth vaccine/anti-vax Twitter thread I’m on. The denialists are the best cherrypickers I’ve ever seen, on top of their innumeracy and inability to distinguish correlation from causation.

Devin: What should the Brewers do? Stand pat and see if they can still win the division?Trade a top 100 prospect for Quintana? Weird since they are technically still in a rebuild.
Keith Law: I think so. Can’t sell if you’re in first place, right? What a terrible message to the fans. But I wouldn’t buy, especially not with several major prospects (Ray, Clark, Erceg) having disappointing years.

Tom: So last year it was Brach, this year it’s LeMahieu… actually, my question is, why do you think Andrelton Simmons didn’t get any consideration for the AL team? If nothing else, he’s sporting a 3.4 WAR this year which makes him equal with Trout (shut up).
Keith Law: Simmons should probably be an All-Star regular, but his value is so much on the defensive side that he’s rarely recognized for what he is.

Justin: The cable industry is failing, ESPN is just caught in the tailspin. Eventually the cable industry with have to make adjustments.
Keith Law: I agree with that. Can ESPN sell directly to consumers via an app and streaming package? I don’t know, but I think we need to try that, as do most cable channels.

Guest: Any chance you have gotten to see Domingo Acevedo this year? Do you think he has a future as a starter?
Keith Law: Last year. Not with that delivery he doesn’t.

BEN : Is Yordan Alvarez a top 10 1b prospect, even if that’s not that much
Keith Law: Yes, he’s legit.

Matt: You might not remember this, but last year I asked you about Kingerys potential and you said Altuve with more power. I thought you were crazy because no scouts said Kingery would develop power. I just wanted to say that, you sir, are very good at what you do.
Keith Law: Sometimes I get something right.

Aaron: What does this injury do to Torres? Will he still become a star?
Keith Law: Not worried about it. It sucks for us, and maybe pushes back his arrival by a few months, but he’s still going to be a star.

John: What do you make of the Rays’ failure to sign Rasmussen? Who, pardon the pun, dropped the ball here?
Keith Law: Because the player didn’t participate in the predraft voluntary MRI process, he loses the protection granted by rule 4 if, hypothetically, the Rays found something wrong with his arm in their post-draft physical. (I must be very clear that no one has told me what, if anything, they found.) So the Rays can walk away and still get same-slot compensation, while Rasmussen has to re-enter the draft next year rather than gaining free agency. Do I blame anyone? I think the lesson is that there’s a benefit to submitting an MRI pre-draft if MLB includes you in that program – had he done so, and whatever team took him declined to offer him the minimum for that slot, he would have gained free agency. But Griffin Canning submitted an MRI, and whatever was on it – supposedly he might need TJ surgery – was enough to knock him out of the first round completely.

Joe: Can Rutherford or Frazier play cf or is Fowler the CF of the future for Yankees?
Keith Law: Rutherford and Frazier are corner outfielders only.

Will: Speaking of Karsten Whitson, what do you make of Kyle Serrano’s situation? Talented pitcher turns down $$$ to play for his dad, has an underwhelming college career+TJ, and then leaves the team in his final season for personal reasons but just signed an overslot deal with Houston.
Keith Law: “Overslot” was $200K. He turned down seven figures out of HS. If you’re a pitcher and you get that kind of offer, take the money.

Jake: No chance for R. Lewis to stay at short? Nick Gordon?
Keith Law: Gordon is a true SS. Lewis has no chance IMO.

Reds Fan: Why Herget over Mahle in the Futures game? Please explain this to me.
Keith Law: I think you’re taking that a little too seriously. Herget’s really good as a reliever – and putting one or two good relievers on each roster is a good plan, IMO, given the nature of the game and the fact that every year we get someone who comes in and can’t get an out (or throw a strike).

Nate : Keith, how frequently are you speaking with scouts on players? Daily, Weekly
Keith Law: Daily is about right.

Your fan: do you ever film when scouting? If so, what equipment do you use?
Keith Law: Always, HD-quality sony camera (so we can use the footage on air).

Steve: Since you saw Brito recently, did you get any eyes on Jojo Romero?
Keith Law: No, I saw Medina, great arm, really loose, not very polished but the breaking ball is in there.

Moltar: Who names all three of their kids Wander? Is he lost?
Keith Law: I think this is a custom in some countries/cultures – same first name, differing middle names – although I’m not certain.

Dan: What’s your projection for Derek Fisher? Is he a regular as a corner OF?
Keith Law: Yes, potentially a star.

Ryan: I read Delvij Perez was upset about being sent to a short season team and then he was benched for throwing his helmet after a K or something silly like that. Add on the steroid test, are there real makeup issues at play there?
Keith Law: There were real makeup issues pre-draft too. Lot of reports of immaturity. Got in a yelling match with an opposing coach once before the draft. He needs to grow up.

Greg: Keith, my brother is having a tough time. 25, unemployed, living at home. He never smiles and only responds to our parents with yes/no answers. I think he’s depressed but it’s impossible to talk to him about it. Any advice?
Keith Law: Sounds like it. Any chance you could get him to talk to a doctor? Even his primary care doc might have something to offer.

Dan: Do you do a midseason prospect rankings update?
Keith Law: Yes, it’ll be up on Thursday, and that’s why I’ve avoided some questions about players who’ll be on it.

Paul: Hey Keith – you’ve probably been asked this before, so forgive me if I’ve missed it, but have you ever thought about creating a board game? Or maybe if not creating from scratch, co-creating or consulting on one? Now that you’ve written a book (one that I loved, by the way), it seems like that should be next!
Keith Law: Yes, of course, but I wonder if I know the math/modeling aspects enough to do it well.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thank you for all of the questions, as always, and I hope to see many of you this weekend in Miami. I’ll be back to chat again next week once the midyear top 50 is up.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ July 3, 2017
→ By keith

Dancing in the Glory of Monsters.

Five or six years ago, at least, I was at a game in Lake Elsinore when a reader whose name I unfortunately have forgotten recommended a book to me called King Leopold’s Ghost, a meticulous, infuriating non-fiction work on the colonial history of the country now known as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which for a few decades was the personal property of that king of Belgium. Leo’s abusive misrule was followed by colonial rule by the Belgian government that was only marginally better, with both regimes characterized by plundering of the massive territory’s natural resources, abuse of its natives, destruction of longstanding social and tribal structures, and the failure to establish any foundation for native rule after independence. It’s a great description of how white Europeans gave Africa’s second-largest country no shot at stability or progress once they left and are largely responsible for the failed state that the D.R. Congo has been for the last twenty to thirty years, including the seemingly neverending civil war(s) that have plagued it since late in the rule of Mobutu Sese Seko.

So at some point in 2016, while sharing a table with a woman in a Starbucks in LA, I started chatting with her about books – she was reading something that related to Africa, so I suggested King Leopold’s Ghost, and she recommended two books to me, one of which was Jason Stearns’ Dancing in the Glory of Monsters: The Collapse of the Congo and the Great War of Africa. Stearns’ thorough history provides much of the second half of the history of the failed state, explaining how Mobutu came to power, how his regime fell, how the civil war in the Congo was itself an outgrowth of regional tensions and the Rwandan civil war and genocide, and why the country remains one of that continent’s biggest disasters in every definition – political, economic, and humanitarian. (A Human Rights Watch director just wrote an op ed in the Washington Post last week entitled “The crisis in Congo is spiraling out of control”, as the current dictator, Joseph Kabila, refuses to cede power and is backing increased violence against dissidents, which also includes the murders of two UN observers this spring.)

Stearns’ book focuses primarily on the civil war itself, beginning with a detailed description of the collapse of Rwanda after its President, Juvenal Habyarimana, died in a plane crash in 1994 that his supporters claimed (without evidence) was an assassination, touching off the country’s civil war and humanity’s worst genocide since the Holocaust. The post-genocide government in Rwanda blamed Mobutu Sese Seko, who had a long history of supporting rebel movements and terrorist groups in the region, for supporting the Hutu majority who carried out most of the killings. Rwanda’s new government teamed with other regional leaders to form a coherent rebellion against Mobutu, recruiting a semi-retired Marxist revolutionary named Laurent Kabila to lead a new army called the AFDL to topple the Congolese dictator, who had renamed the country Zaire. Mobutu’s forces crumbled quickly under the advance of better-funded and somewhat more disciplined rebels, although the invaders were guilty of massive war crimes themselves, and the new boss proved to be no better than the old boss – true of Laurent Kabila, who was assassinated himself in 2001, and his son Joseph, who took over and showed authoritarian tendencies of his own. Laurent alienated the foreign leaders who helped him to power, leading to yet another attempt to overthrow him, and the two wars together (called the First and Second Congo Wars, although you could argue it’s all just one long ongoing conflict) have led to over five million deaths and over two million displaced persons along with the continued deterioration of the Congolese state.

This history gives more detail than you could ever want on the atrocities of the two wars and the direct causes of the conflicts – Rwanda’s civil war, the involvement of regional powers, the misrule of Mobutu, Laurent Kabila’s fast alienation of his backers. Stearns spent years on the ground in the D.R. Congo and includes numerous first-person accounts of massacres from survivors. There are no “good guys” here; every group appears to have committed crimes against humanity, including rape, torture, murder, even mutilation of the dead, and while it’s easy to handwave it away as racial animus, even that facile explanation seems to fall short under Stearns’ scrutiny. And the bulk of the deaths came not from violence – horrific as it was – but from starvation, malnutrition, and disease caused by the disruptions of the civil war. The total breakdown of the Congolese state, the displacement of millions of Congolese civilians, the inadequate international response to the humanitarian crisis, and the attacks on refugee camps by rebel and foreign armies all led to these preventable deaths. Stearns gives us plenty of stories of abject violence, which will shock and disgust the reader, but the majority of the deaths from the two wars occurred in more mundane fashion, making them less salacious on the page but no less tragic.

Where Stearns’ book falls short for me, however, is in assigning blame for the ongoing failure to establish a functioning state in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on the Belgians, because at least one of the major causes of the catastrophe is that the country itself is a European fabrication. Most African borders today are based on European colonial borders, ignoring tribal or ethnic boundaries that dated back hundreds of years, but few nations are as constructed as the DR Congo’s, which still has the shape of “everything King Leopold could claim” and combines 80 million people from over 200 ethnic groups who speak over 240 languages under one national government. The country is also among the world’s richest in mineral resources, with over 70% of the world’s deposits of coltan (columbite-tantalite), the main source of tantalum for electrolytic capacitors found in many consumer electronic devices, and over 30% of the world’s cobalt and diamond deposits. The role of these “conflict minerals” in fueling the wars is debated and probably unanswerable, but their existence and uneven distribution – the country’s “mining capital” and second largest city, Lubumbashi, is over 2000 km away from the national capital, Kinshasa, and sits on the border with Zambia in the relatively well-off Katanga Province – means dividing the country along ethnic or historical lines would create huge economic disparities among the new nations. (Witness the problems with South Sudan, which was carved out of Sudan six years ago and took most of the country’s oil reserves with it – but not the pipeline to the Red Sea, which goes through Khartoum.) Perhaps the D.R. Congo was doomed to failure from before independence because the country itself is a creation of outside, white forces, and because the successful rebellions have taken over the national government rather than carving out independence for specific regions that might have a chance to function because they’re easier to run and combine fewer ethnic or linguistic groups.

Dancing in the Glory of Monsters covers a tremendous amount of ground, literally and figuratively, even without delving into the question of whether this country can ever function properly given its colonial history; there’s enough detail in here on the two Congolese civil wars to give any reader more than enough insight into what happened, a good shot at understanding why, and plenty of despair over the future of that godforsaken country. The book was published in 2011, and nothing has improved in the D.R. Congo since then. A rebellion in the eastern Kivu region continues to roil, and the political crisis that began in 2015 is worsening as Joseph Kabila refuses to cede power and has been cracking down on opposition, a situation that has only further deteriorated since the main opposition leader, Étienne Tshisekedi, who was supposed to oversee a transitional post-Kabila government, died in February. Stearns tries to end the book with a little optimism, explaining at least what the international community might do to try to stabilize the country, but given everything that has come post-publication, I think the D.R. Congo is more likely to become the new Somalia than to become a functioning state again.

Next up: Louis Bromfield’s 1926 Pulitzer Prize-winning novel Early Autumn.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: africa, african history, non-fiction, world history

→ July 1, 2017
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 7/1/17.

Couple of Insider posts this week – one with reactions to the initial rosters for the Futures Game and one on top prospects for tomorrow’s international free agent signing period. I also held a Klawchat on Friday afternoon en route to Lakewood from Bristol.

My latest boardgame review for Paste is the two-player game Santorini, which has some light chess/Othello elements to it but is played on a smaller board (5×5) that keeps the games a bit shorter.

Thanks to everyone who’s already bought Smart Baseball; sales spiked this month between Father’s Day and the positive review in the Wall Street Journal. I’ve got book signings coming up:

* Miami, Books and Books, July 8th
* Harrisburg, Midtown Scholar, July 15th
* Berkeley, Books Inc., July 19th
* Chicago, Volumes, July 28th, 7:30 pm
* GenCon (Indianapolis), August 17th-20th

If you’re with an independent bookstore and would like to host a signing, please contact Danielle Bartlett at HarperCollins; we’re trying to accommodate everyone we can within my work schedule.

I also spoke with Sportsnet about the book, anxiety, and the 2017 Blue Jays.

And now, the links…

Russell Carleton looks at the utility of pickoff throws over at Baseball Prospectus.
This isn’t surprising if you follow Zack Greinke at all, but the pitcher told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert how he used Statcast data to help turn his 2016 season around.
“The Time I Got Recruited to Collude with the Russians.” Long, and you may have seen it, but it seems like more evidence of wrongdoing from the Trump campaign last summer.
VICE details a planned (or, really, hypothetical) pay-for-play college basketball league that would focus on the Historically Black Colleges & Universities that have largely missed out on the financial windfall of modern college basketball.
The mother of an immune-compromised daughter who was hospitalized recently because she was exposed to chicken pox lashed out at vaccine deniers for putting her daughter’s life at risk. Your decision not to vaccinate your kids isn’t just about your own neglect, but potentially harms other vulnerable people in your community.
If you heard that a European Union court ruled against vaccine safety, well, not really.
A research paper in the New England Journal of Medicine looks at benefits of increased health insurance coverage under the ACA, including lower costs of reduction in mortality rates compared to other policies. (One of the authors is Dr. Atul Gawande, the author of Being Mortal and The Checklist Manifesto.)
Eater has a great profile of gelato maker Meredith Kurtzman, who recently retired after two decades in the NYC food scene, working at restaurants (notably at Mario Batali’s Otto) and earning plaudits from chefs and restaurateurs for her work. It’s a wonderful piece because it doesn’t shy away from the fact that Kurtzman isn’t a very engaging or even likable subject.
The NY Times is now charging for access to its cooking site, which … is fine, actually. I know there’s always a backlash when sites charge for content, but if you want good content, you’re going to have to start paying for it somewhere. I subscribe to their main site, the Washington Post, and Fine Cooking magazine, among others. However, charging for recipes is tricky because they can’t be copyrighted – you can copyright text, but not the specifics of a recipe – which makes this a little different than most subscriber walls.
The great BBC series Broadchurch just returned on Wednesday for its third and final season, and IndieWire ran a Q&A with star David Tennant that’s more insightful than the standard “actor talks about series he didn’t write but explains everything anyway” sort of piece.
The Koch Brothers plan to spend $400 million to help elect conservative Republican candidates in 2018. Repealing Obamacare and reducing taxes on the highest earners are two of their main policy priorities.
Daniel Vaughn’s latest list of the top 50 BBQ joints in Texas came out a few weeks ago for Texas Monthly, and if you’re visiting that state, it’s a great resource. (If you live there, well, I’m sorry.)
The new Presidential commission on so-called “voter fraud” – which does not actually exist on any significant scale – is really just an attack on voting rights. Even some GOP-led states are declining the requests for state voter information. Delaware hasn’t made any statement yet, but I have reached to the Secretary of State, asking them to refuse to comply.
Sen. Al Franken very calmly de-pantsed Energy Secretary Rick Perry on climate change, helped by Perry’s apparent lack of any knowledge on the subject whatsoever.
Whole Foods had long contributed to local farmers both in access to markets and in providing low-interest loans to help farmers ramp up operations to serve the chain. Now the farmers worry these programs will end after amazon’s purchase of the retailer.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: bbq, british television, climate change, gelato, links, Sports, stick to baseball, vaccines, whole foods

→ June 30, 2017
→ By keith

Klawchat, 6/30/17.

My Insider post looking at the top free agents in the international class is now up. Also, did you know I wrote a book, called Smart Baseball? I did. I hear it might even be good.

Keith Law: Let’s shock the world with what we know. Klawchat.

Adam: What is a realistic ceiling for Juan Soto?
Keith Law: Funny you ask. I’ll be seeing him tonight at 7 pm at Lakewood.

Billy Beane: Who was more upside, Anderson Espinoza or Sixto Sanchez?
Keith Law: If healthy, Espinoza, by quite a bit. But he’s not healthy and Sixto is.

Adam: Chris Rodriguez seems to be skyrocketing up prospect lists. What about him stands out and just how high do you see him rising?
Keith Law: He isn’t “skyrocketing” up any of my lists. I heard he looked good in extended, but those are glorified practice games. He’s gotten bombed in two actual starts this year. He was a pop-up kid in Florida in last year’s draft, very projectable, started to show more velocity this spring, still a work in progress.

Mason: Will Gregory Polanco ever figure it out?
Keith Law: I think he figured a lot out last year. I don’t think he’s a .264 BABIP guy (his figure this year).

CJ: How many career games will it take for Nick Williams to earn his first walk?
Keith Law: I’ll answer this: I think it’ll take at least 50 games for him to draw his 10th walk (unless they bat him right before the pitcher, that’s cheating).

Sloth: Higher ceiling – Barreto or Chapman?
Keith Law: Barreto, with Chapman, a 70 defender at third right now, having the higher floor than Barreto, who still may end up at another position.

Bob: Luis Castillo was very impressive against Milwaukee this week. Specifically, that looked like a plus changeup and he sat 97-99 all game. Future two perhaps?
Keith Law: Not without a better breaking ball, which is going to be hard for him given his arm action/slot.

Jennifer: Do the Braves have a solid argument/reason to make a move now for a front-line, cost-controlled starter that will help next year and the year after or are they still better off waiting?
Keith Law: If the right one is available, sure, but I have a feeling if they call on someone like Sonny Gray the price is going to be exorbitant because wouldn’t you ask Atlanta for the moon?
Keith Law: I guess that’s me saying I doubt they end up doing that.

G: It seemed like Calvin Mitchell’s stock dropped a good amount in the past 10 months or so. Were his problems mechanical? His swing looked nice in the HR in his first GCL game.
Keith Law: He didn’t hit well all spring, and when your only tool is your bat, and scouts come see you not hit, it’s kind of a problem.

Anthony: There are myriad teams in the AL technically “in the race.” Who of KC, SEA, TEX, ANA, TOR, BAL should be selling?
Keith Law: I can’t see the Angels selling, and unless the Orioles are willing to sell Machado I don’t know that it makes a ton of sense for them. The Royals and Mariners should probably sell. The others probably should wait another 2-3 weeks before deciding. A 2-10 or 10-2 fortnight can change your strategy.

Adam: Is there anything left for Vlad Jr and Bichette to prove offensively in Low-A? Their numbers are ridiculous even when comparing them to a similarly vaunted prospect like Tatis Jr.
Keith Law: I would move Bichette before Vlad, since Bo’s a year older. I don’t think it’s imperative that Vlad move right away.

Bertil: Do you think Astros should switch positions for Correa and Bergman? And if so, when?
Keith Law: I do, now, but I don’t think it happens.

Jay: Just got back from Phoenix. Thanks for all the food and drink recommendations. They were all incredible. Blue Hound especially!
Keith Law: It’s a better food town than its reputation would indicate.

Raphael: How outlandish is it to believe that Vladdy Jr is the #1 prospect in baseball?
Keith Law: It’s 80 on the 20-80 outlandish scale. You must be a Jays fan.

Chad: Has Jorge Ona been dissapointing, or is he doing fine (despite being 20 yrs old in A-ball)
Keith Law: He’s doing fine.

nb: Keith – Been a horrible season here in Philly. I need some good news. What have you seen or heard about Sixto Sanchez? Thanks!
Keith Law: Throwing very hard (regularly topping out at 99) with plus control but fringy to below average secondary stuff.

Adam D.: Should I be excited about what Brian Reynolds is doing at High-A, or skeptical because he is a college guy playing in an offense-friendly league against young(ish) competition?
Keith Law: I’d like to see more power and walks, really. San Jose hasn’t historically been good for home runs, but I’m surprised he isn’t walking more.

Pat: Mitch K. or Walker B. ?
Keith Law: It helps if you give me the last names. If that’s Mitch Keller, I have him ranked well above Walker Buehler.

Casey: Rockies have lost 8 straight… do you think they have the pitching to make the playoffs?
Keith Law: The odds of them missing the playoffs are pretty low, given how far ahead they are in the standings. I don’t think they have the pitching to do much in the playoffs, but that’s another question.

Jeff: Bellinger’ future average will look like? Sub .280 due to aggressive nature of swing?
Keith Law: I don’t know what you’re referring to about his swing, but I think his feel for the zone is so advanced that he’ll gradually get up to high batting averages and OBPs.

Josh in DC: What are you feelings about Red Sox’ trade for Tyler Thornburg? With full hindsight, it’s as bad a trade as one can imagine. But it still made sense (to me, anyway) at the time. How do you evaluate something like this?
Keith Law: I agree, it made sense on the day they made it. And really, Shaw’s having a great season, but he’s still a platoon player (.293 OBP vs lefties) and is already 27. It’s not like they gave up a top prospect.

Emily: Hi Keith,

I don’t have a question, but as someone who has suffered with depression, I was just hoping you could share this link with your readers. I came across an article today about someone sharing the story of their own battles with depression and how baseball has helped them through it.

http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/30/staying-in-the…
Keith Law: Thank you. The more we talk about mental illness, the more we reduce the stigma around it.

Sam: Yandy Diaz…Where do you see him long term?
Keith Law: Think he ends up a regular at 3b.

Casey: Ever had any roommate conflicts?
Keith Law: I’ve been married for 22 years, so, yeah, a few.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Soto is on the DL, dammit.
Keith Law: Dammit is right – I didn’t even check the rosters.

Chris: It doesn’t seem like many people believed Bo Bichette had this in him. Can he keep it up, and where would he fall in your top 100 today?
Keith Law: I’ve always liked him and spoken well of his bat, but really, if anyone thought he’d do this, he would have been a top ten pick last year, and even I didn’t argue for that. I’ll do an updated top 50 after the Futures Game and I assume he’ll be on it – but I haven’t actually sat down to make up the list, so I reserve the right to change my mind.

Joe: What do you think about the Cardinals sending guys down to the minors to work out their swings; such as Grichuk and others? Is this a good thing or a sign that the major league coaching staff isn’t able to help them?
Keith Law: I would think it’s easier to alter a swing in the minors than it is while your MLB club is trying to win. Also, his issue is less his swing and more his chronic problems with recognizing offspeed stuff.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Thoughts on Daniel Johnson? He’ll be at Lakewood too–would love a report!
Keith Law: Watson is pitching too, plus Adonis Medina throwing for Lakewood … should be a productive night anyway.

Levi: What does an Andrew McCutchen trade return look like at this point? Seems like a 4 WAR bat in left field
Keith Law: He didn’t seem like a 4 WAR bat in left field a month ago, so I wouldn’t expect a trade return to value him as such. I think he gets them a couple of mid-level prospects.

Guy Smiley: With Gurriel Jr., the recent draftees, and the on-fire Bichette in the Jays’ system, is Urena the odd SS out? What’s he worth as trade bait?
Keith Law: Bichette isn’t staying at short, and I wouldn’t bank on G(o)urriel just yet.

Casey: Is Anthony Banda in Arizona minors anything special? A 3?
Keith Law: A 4 with a chance to be a 3.

Guest: Why can’t Nats fans have nice things? Is it because of the whole relocation from Montreal? We didn’t actively solicit the team or steal the team like some other cities, release us from this curse fickle Baseball tyrants.
Keith Law: Well Baltimore stole an NFL team from Cleveland, only to have them win two Super Bowls, so I’m going to say that the fates don’t seem to care about morality in sports franchise success.

Iggy: New QOTSA song, yay or nay?
Keith Law: Yay, it’s on my latest new music playlist.

Rob K: Could any Mets with expiring contracts (Bruce, Asdrubal, Grandy, Walker, Addison Reed, Duda, Reyes) bring anything back that could help the team in 2018? Keep in mind the Wilpons will eat zero money.
Keith Law: Bruce might get something now that he’s hitting again. Reed would. Reyes they can fire into the sun for all I care.

Braves Fan: They say you can never have too much pitching but are the Braves getting close? It seems like every level has multiple good prospects
Keith Law: No, because you’re already seeing some of the attrition, like Weigel getting hurt.

Mike: In the end Lindor, Correa, or Seager?
Keith Law: Oooof. Seager’s the best bat, but Lindor is probably the best all-around player including defense and baserunning. Except the bunting. Stop bunting.

Vic: Does Mountcastle stick at short? Enough bat to play left?
Keith Law: Zero chance he sticks at short. Maybe on LF. I was hoping he or Austin Hays (more Hays) would make the Futures Game, rather than Tanner Scott, who throws hard but is just a reliever in the end.

Taylor: Most upside out of Tyler Austin, Tyler Wade, Miguel Andujar, and Dustin Fowler (get well soon)?
Keith Law: Fowler or Andujar. What a horrible, freak injury for the kid.

Matt: Given the trajectory of Cubs’ season, should they be aggressive with their inventory of prospects to acquire a controllable, young SP?
Keith Law: Yes – and I said in April on the BBTN podcast that I believe that’s been their plan all along. Maybe not young, but with years of control.

SJ: Rabbit-cocktail sounding name aside, does Victor Caratini project as a league average catcher or is he destined for another position?
Keith Law: OK, now he’s Victor Carrot-ini forever. I had him as more a multi-position UT who can also be your backup catcher, so maybe a guy who’s more valuable because he essentially frees up a roster spot than his performance might indicate.

Kevin: I know we are less than ecstatic about comps but is Kyle Wright a strong one for Brady Singer? I couldn’t help but conclude that during the CWS. Wright is a tick or two higher with velo and a deeper repertoire while Singer has the better breaking ball. Thoughts? Thoughts on the Florida fireballer?
Keith Law: Don’t think Singer has a better breaking ball, and he has a worse arm action. I saw them pitch against each other in April; Singer was 90-91 all night, Wright 92-96. Singer has thrown harder since then, and I did see him 92-95 in a short start as a freshman, but I don’t think he’s close to Wright as a starter prospect.

Brad: How soon do you think before you think we’ll be seeing Devers man the hot corner in Boston? Just after the ASB, or will he be a September call-up? Thanks!
Keith Law: I think he gets up in September, but why is he still in AA? He should be in Pawtucket to try to get him more ready for a callup.

Pat D: If someone is going to write, “Considering Frazier’s perceived bravado, could Frazier have asked for a Yankees number to be unretired? Yeah, it’s possible.” should I ever read that person’s work again? This is kind of thing that it seems only a sportswriter can get away with, and I find it infuriating.
Keith Law: I would not read that person’s work again, no. That’s basically the “you have to ask the question” backhanded accusation bullshit we’ve seen with bogus PED claims. It makes me insane.

JoeNathan: Hey Keith, I just wanted to say thank you again for signing my book and I enjoyed our chat. I wanted to ask you about what you meant when you said that you would be much further along with your career had you started 5 years earlier? Was that a comment on the landscape of MLB offices at the time or something else?
Keith Law: I was referring to the benefit of experience seeing players to my ability to evaluate players.

Tony: Do you ever read a book where you can definitely see why it’s considered “great,” but it’s not necessarily good? I’m about 2/3 of the way through EAST OF EDEN and struggling. I respect it as a work of literature, but I’m not sure I actually like it.
Keith Law: All the time. I’ve commented on some of the Pulitzer winners I’ve read that I understand why they won but didn’t enjoy them.

nb: Keith – Just bought the book and it’s set to be my beach reading next week. Are you planning on ant Trenton trips soon? Book can use an autograph. Thanks!
Keith Law: I’m sure I’ll be there again soon, but I don’t plan minor league trips more than a few days in advance because of weather and pitching matchups.

Mike Maddux: Over/under 200 Ks for Giolito next year with him discovering his old form after I screwed him up?
Keith Law: I’ll take the under, but I think he’s eventually a 200 K guy.

Rob K: Do teams really avoid trades that otherwise make sense if it’s with a division rival? Is that wise?
Keith Law: I think that is going by the wayside with the changes in front offices around the game.

Arin, D-town: Is Scott Kingery a future starter or utility guy?
Keith Law: Come on, he’s at least an above average everyday 2b. I just wrote and raved about him a week ago.

AJ: Fernando Tatis Jr comp?
Keith Law: I don’t do comps, sorry … but I will say that I think he’s modeling himself a bit after Manny Machado. He does have a similar frame to Manny at 18, and it looked like he’s adopted some of Manny’s actions and mannerisms. That’s a pretty good guy to imitate.

Asdrubal: Think Duplantier could crack the top 100 this year?
Keith Law: He’s just dominating younger competition. I liked the pick a lot and it’s great to see him healthy, but he needs to get to high-A or even AA now that he’s rolling.

Guest: Hi Keith! Any updates on Morejon and Espinoza of the Padres?
Keith Law: Morejon’s been pitching for Tri-City in the Northwest League. Espinoza is just playing catch and I don’t know if we’ll see him at all this summer.

Juwan: To your mind, did Anthony Rendon live up to your pre-draft eval? Some analysts predicted that he’d win a batting title or two, and he hasn’t quite been that level of hitter, but he’s been red hot for 50 games now and he’s stacked together multiple very solid seasons.
Keith Law: Fangraphs has him at 17 career WAR already, so I’d say yes, he’s living up to it, and he’ll end up a great pick at 6th overall.

Eric: Is Luis Urias a top 20 prospect now?
Keith Law: No. I feel like when people ask “is my favorite team’s prospect in the top X now,” the instinct is to make X too low. Top 20 is ridiculously selective.

Gerard: How did Z Collins get in the Futures game this year?
Keith Law: Getting enough catchers is hard.

Chris: Nick Williams from Phils just called up… he anything good?
Keith Law: See above. Has raw power, some tools, chronically undisciplined at the plate.

John S: Any reason to believe that Lamet should stay in the rotation? His numbers against lefties have been… bad. But, four of his six starts have been better than any other padre this season
Keith Law: It won’t hurt his development to get smacked around by lefties as a starter, but he can’t remain one long-term without a viable third pitch.

Dylan: Is there anything preventing Francisco Mejia from being the top prospect in baseball? His bat at catcher just seems so absurdly good, I’m not sure what the comparison is outside of the elite.
Keith Law: He’s not that advanced a defensive catcher.

Arnie: When the Astros picked up Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields, I assumed he was a marginal or (non-) prospect. Is there real prospect value there beyond his loud stat line?
Keith Law: He’s legit, no question. Dodgers had given him $3 million, I think.

Andy: Urias going out with a shoulder issue like this is really bad right?
Keith Law: With *that* shoulder issue, yes. That’s heavy surgery. Definitely bad.

JC: Is Flaherty for real, or just having a great year? What does he project to be in the majors?
Keith Law: Been on my top 100 the last two winters. Command/control right-hander, durable, maybe more mid-rotation than top two but still very good.

Ed: Can we stop pretending moderate republicans exist? Can we stop pretending they are going to save us?
Keith Law: That’s not fair. They exist. They’re just not anywhere to be found in the federal government right now.

Mark: What % chance would you give to each Acuna, Allard, and Soroka being September call ups?
Keith Law: Zero or effectively zero to all three.

David: Have you read any good nonfiction recently ?
Keith Law: I just finished a great audiobook, Dancing to the Glory of Monsters by Jason Stearns, right before I pulled into the parking lot here. It’s about the series of wars in the DR of the Congo since 1990, and tries to get at why the country is such a disaster. I also loved Ed Yong’s I Contain Multitudes, about the microbiome, which I reviewed in March.

Josh: David Lynch fan? If so, wondering your thoughts if you’ve seen the Twin Peaks revival
Keith Law: Not a huge fan. Haven’t seen the revival.

MP, San Jose: Who is the pitcher on the cover of your book, and why that pitcher in particular?
Keith Law: Stock photo.

Vic: Does Franklin Perez make it to Houston by 2020?
Keith Law: I would guess 2019.

Dave: Can Josh Bell be a top 5 first baseman in the game?
Keith Law: Probably not? But I had to think about it. I do think he’s going to be very good, and if he really unlocks all that raw power in games, then he probably could be.

Tom: Tyler Glasgow – starter or reliever?
Keith Law: Ah dinnae ken.

Robert: What happened to AJ Reed? Does he still have a shot to fulfill last year’s promise?
Keith Law: Zero adjustments in big leagues. They throw offspeed stuff for strikes in the majors. He’s going to have to figure out how to adjust to that.

Tom: Kevin Newman going to hit enough to be an everyday player?
Keith Law: He’s been disappointing this year, especially since he was hit in the head by a pitch about 5-6 weeks ago. I would have said yes without hesitation in March, and he’s still making a lot of contact, but scouts have told me it’s just not hard enough contact.

Tim: You’ve been relatively modest about your long time praise of Judge, but even from the get go during your draft review, you were extremely positive about him. What’s more rewarding for you, on guys that you are high on? An immediate breakout like Judge or late bloomers like Hicks and Smoak?
Keith Law: Smoak is beyond “late,” so I can’t take credit for that one, but it is gratifying when a guy like Judge or Hicks becomes the player I thought he could be, especially if I was higher than the industry was (e.g., having Judge ranked higher than where he was drafted – same is true for Kingery, whom I had as a late first round talent).

Brian: Nathan’s hot dogs and bud heavy on the menu for the KLAW July 4th cookout?
Keith Law: I don’t really eat beef any more but I do have a sentimental soft spot for Nathan’s.

Josh in DC: It’s interesting that you’d judge the Thornburg trade by noting Travis Shaw isn’t a “top prospect.” The fact is, the Red Sox need a third baseman for THIS season. The Sox already HAVE a top prospect at third base. Aren’t you undervaluing the importance of the present season in judging this trade?
Keith Law: He’s a below-average defensive third baseman, so, no, I’m not.

Andy: Now that we’re actually in negotiating season, is there any picks that you’re hearing have raised their bonus demands that there is a question about signing before the deadline?
Keith Law: Nope. Assume everyone in the top ten rounds will sign unless someone fails his physical.

Jason: Any concerns about Jahmai Jones’ struggles this year?
Keith Law: He’s 19 in low A, making plenty of contact, don’t think I’d say he’s “struggled,” just hasn’t blown up.

Ed: Tell me that the Cubs aren’t trading Jiminez for any rentals this year.
Keith Law: I think – but have no inside info – that he’ll be the one guy they won’t deal, unless they were getting some star young pitcher with years of control left. I don’t think Stroman is or would be available, but if he were, that’s a guy I’d deal Eloy for.

Damien: In honor of the Buerhle jersey retirement, is he solidly in the “Hall of Very Good”? Could a few more productive years have garnered him serious HOF consideration?
Keith Law: He never had HoF peak for me. Just longevity, which makes him HoVG.

Jason: What percent of the increase in home runs this year do you attribute to changes in the baseball?
Keith Law: I’ll leave that to the experts, like Rob Arthur, who’s done some great work on the topic.

Ryan D: Has your opinion on Jordan Montgomery changed? I know SSS, but he looks like a solid 4 sp this year, or do you still think he ends up in the pen long term?
Keith Law: He might be a back-end starter. It’s still pretty average stuff across the board, but he’s throwing everything for strikes enough that I would revise him up to ‘starter.’

Tony: In your chat last week, you mentioned that a scout said JP Crawford’s swing changed. Is this a case of a launch angle change gone bad?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. I think the kid is overswinging right now to try to hit for power he probably doesn’t have.

Jason: Is Chris shaw starting in San Francisco by the trading deadline?
Keith Law: Meh. Not a big believer in his bat.

Rob K: I know you don’t like talking about Tebow, but: does his promotion High A over AA (where he’d be downright embarrassed by good breaking stuff) mean we’ll see 2 years of this sideshow?
Keith Law: As long as he’s willing to play (and get his cut of jersey sales), we’ll see this sideshow.

hg: how was your trip to Toronto. Get to any restaurants? has the city changed, in your opinion, since your last visit?
Keith Law: Pitch Talks was a lot of fun, but I didn’t get to explore at all due to time constraints. My one good rec was Sorry Coffee on Bloor, which is excellent.

Vic: Odds of Josh Ockimey being a productive 1B?
Keith Law: Low, not zero, maybe 20%.

JC: Thoughts on the Mo/Girsch move today?
Keith Law: These tend to be paper moves, so I wouldn’t think anything of it until we see any real operational changes.

Nate: What would you say the chances are the White Sox trade Q…60/40?
Keith Law: That’s probably about right. I think they should shop him aggressively, but they don’t *have* to trade him.

Mike: With Terry Collins likely retiring after this year, do you have any early favorites as far as who the Mets should interview to replace him?
Keith Law: Judging by his work, I thought he already retired.

Christian: Any update on Willie Calhoun’s defense? Bat is certainly holding up fine
Keith Law: This sounds like wishful thinking. He’s almost certainly a DH.

John: Why would it be that Bogaerts doesn’t hit for power these days?
Keith Law: More generally, why doesn’t he make hard contact? He was a power prospect when he was still a teenager. I don’t understand how or when he made that tradeoff.

Zach : Hey Keith, How quickly so you think Brendan Rodgers moves through the Rockies system? Thanks!
Keith Law: I think he’s going to have a big adjustment to make in AA now to guys with better secondary stuff. I still rate him very highly, but he hasn’t been challenged much yet, playing in two great hitters’ parks.

John K: Is Mookie Betts a good comp for Scott Kingery?
Keith Law: No, Betts is a borderline MVP, Kingery is … not that.

Steve: Travis Blankenhorn a potential everyday guy?
Keith Law: Yes, although I’m not sure where.

Nick: Is expansion to 32 likely in the next decade?
Keith Law: Depends on whether owners decide they want more money.

Jeff b: Thoughts on Sean Newcombe so far? Had little control at AAA.
Keith Law: Very skeptical that this has improved in the majors just via magic.

Patrick: What’s the ceiling for Christin Stewart? And how close is Jairo Labourt?
Keith Law: Solid average regular in LF; close but likely to be wild in the majors.
Keith Law: OK, my battery is dying and I’m not near an outlet, so I’ll wrap this up. Thank you as always for all of the questions and for joining me for this impromptu chat. I’ll be back next week, almost certainly Thursday, for a pre-Futures Game chat.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ June 29, 2017
→ By keith

Music update, June 2017.

Huge month for new music – 31 songs on this playlist is a new record for me, but this is after I cut a few tracks just to try to limit it to the best songs I’ve heard since June 1st. You can access the Spotify playlist below or via this direct link.

Oh Wonder – High On Humans. I know a few of you are big Oh Wonder fans, but they’re pretty new to me, and so far I’m a fan – this is good, smart, alternative pop.

Portugal. The Man – Rich Friends. Their latest album Woodstock dropped two weeks ago and is really strong, their usual mix of bombastic, melodic rock, with more R&B influences than I’ve heard on previous records.

The Amazons – Black Magic. Fairly new English band from Reading who’ve gotten a ton of hype in the British music and mainstream press; I’m a fan of the huge guitar riff driving this song.

Sløtface – Nancy Drew. The Norwegian punk-popsters who gave us “Empire Records” last year are back with another subtly poppy track with slightly twisted lyrics.

Waxahatchee – Never Been Wrong. Katie Crutchfield’s next album, Out in the Storm, comes out on July 14th, and this track is more in the folk-rock vein of 2015’s “Under a Rock.”

The Preatures – Girlhood. This Australian quintet is about to release its first album since 2014, with a similar ’60s British pop/rock vibe. Also, I couldn’t figure out what the repeated line was in the verse, but according to my Internet it’s “a morning girl.”

Beach Fossils – Tangerine. Brooklyn indie-rockers Beach Fossils just released their latest album, Somersault, of stoner/surfer/lo-fi tracks, with this track offering the best hook on the album.

The Districts – If Before I Wake. I didn’t love the Districts’ acclaimed 2015 album, A Flourish and a Spoil, but this song is absolutely anthemic.

No Win – You’ll Be Fine. Apparently No Win is a side project of a member of FIDLAR, although I’m not a big fan of FIDLAR’s music so I was totally unaware of this, but hey, this song rocks.

Ride – Lannoy Point. The shoegazers’ first album in 21 years, Weather Diaries, starts out very strong and has probably four songs that would fit in very well with their vintage output, but I felt like it tapered off towards more maudlin lyrics and less inventive music.

Radiohead – I Promise. Radiohead has reissued OK Computer for the seminal album’s 20th anniversary in a two-disc set called OK Computer OKNOTOK 1997 2017, including three previously unreleased tracks from the recording sessions, including this melancholy acoustic track, which would have fit very well on The Bends.

Manchester Orchestra – The Alien. Speaking of melancholy acoustic tracks, one of two new singles from Manchester Orchestra off their upcoming album A Black Mile to the Surface, is a surprisingly melodic, gentle song from a band I typically associate with huge, crunching guitars and with Andy Hull screaming himself hoarse.

Birdtalker – One. Another acoustic track, this one more like vintage folk with some smart and incisive lyrics, from a new Nashville band founded by the wife-and-husband duo of Dani and Zack Green.

The War On Drugs – Holding On. At least this time, the boys kept the song under six minutes! The Bob Dylan overtones can still be a bit much but this song has a driving, memorable hook that really powers the track even when Adam Granduciel starts to sound more like Richard Belzer doing a Dylan impression.

Liam Gallagher – Wall Of Glass. Yep, that’s the former Oasis singer, with what sounds like a solid post-Be Here Now sort of Oasis track.

Death From Above (1979) – Freeze Me. They’ve dropped the ‘1979’ from their name, although it still appears on Spotify. After a decade-long hiatus, they’re about to release their second album in three years, with this lead single probably my favorite track from them yet.

Washed Out – Get Lost. To borrow a malaprop from my daughter, I’m just so-and-so on Washed Out, the nom de chill of Ernest Greene, whose latest album Mister Mellow drops on Friday. This song encapsulates what I like about Washed Out – a melodic, upbeat, highly layered track that brings more complexity than just calling it a dance song would indicate.

Sparks – What The Hell Is It This Time?. Sparks have been around since the early 1970s, although if you know them at all, it’s probably from their one-off collaboration with Jane Wiedlin, “Cool Places,” which reached #49 on the Billboard 100 and became a staple of new-wave compilations. Now aged 71 and 68, the brothers Mael are about to release their 22nd album, Hippopotamus, and this very catchy lead single finds them just as weird as ever.

Floating Points – Kelso Dunes (Edit). Experimental music is an acquired taste and I won’t pretend to be an expert, but I’ve liked some of Sam Shepherd’s stuff so far, and not just because he’s a neuroscientist who happens to make music.

Phoenix – Ti Amo. The title track from the Grammy winners’ latest record is a throwback to the two-step/garage era of the early ’90s on top of the new wave stylings they usually bring.

Arcade Fire – Creature Comfort. I liked “Everything Now” more, but that’s a top five track of the year for me, so that’s not exactly a slight to this second single from their upcoming fifth album.

Queens of the Stone Age – The Way You Used To Do. Anything from QotSA is an automatic inclusion. Their upcoming album Villains comes out August 25th.

Royal Blood – Hole In Your Heart. The duo’s second album, ?How Did We Get So Dark? , came out earlier this month and it really rocks – it’s a step ahead of their debut – with this, “Lights Out,” “Hook, Line, & Sinker,” “I Only Lie When I Love You,” and “Where Are You Now?” my favorites.

Wolf Alice – Yuk Foo. The first single from the British quartet’s upcoming sophomore album, Visions of a Life, is harder and harsher than anything I remember from their debut album, which had a great balance of hard, fast, driving rock and mellower passages that showcased singer/guitarist Ellie Rowsell’s vocal range.

A Giant Dog – Bendover. It’s so loud and obnoxious it’s almost shtick, but it works on this track.

Superchunk – Up Against the Wall. Not only have Superchunk not changed their sound in their nearly 30 years of recording, they don’t even sound like they’ve aged on their new two-track release (the other song, “I Got Cut,” is more of the same).

Jason Loewenstein – Superstitious. Hard rock from one of the guitarists in Lou Barlow’s Sebadoh and the Fiery Furnaces.

Big Boi with Troze – Chocolate. Big Boi’s album Boomiverse is … fine, I guess. I like his vocal style, but I think the album suffers from too many guest spots and from some mediocre beats. Highlights include this track and “Kill Jill” (with Killer Mike and Jeezy).

Ice Cube – Good Cop Bad Cop. A bonus track on the 25th anniversary reissue of Death Certificate, this new song has Ice Cube actually sounding a bit like his old self on a very angry track about police shootings of unarmed black victims and the blue wall of silence that protects the perpetrators.

Less Art – Pessimism as Denial. The new band featuring Ian Miller (Kowloon Walled City) and Riley Breckenridge (Thrice) of the old Productive Outs podcast and of the, uh, grindcore (?) band Puig Destroyer strongly reminds me of early ’90s post-hardcore acts like Quicksand. This first single is off their first album, Strangled Light, due July 28th.

Danzig – Skulls & Daisies. Here primarily for its novelty, as Glenn Danzig is now 62 and sounds it throughout his namesake band’s latest album, salvaged on this track by the guitar work of Tommy Victor, whose main band, Prong, also has a new album due next month.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2017 in music, alternative, metal, Music, rap

→ June 28, 2017
→ By keith

The Handmaiden.

A psychological and erotic thriller built around a classic con story, the South Korean film The Handmaiden made a number of critics’ top ten lists for 2016, but wasn’t even submitted by the Korean Film Council for consideration for the 2016 Academy Award for Best Foreign Language film even after the film was generally praised on release at Cannes that year. Directed by Park Chan-wook (Oldboy, Thirst), The Handmaiden manages to combine a double-cross story worthy of Hitchcock, a drawing-room mystery worthy of Charlotte Heyer, and erotica worthy of Cinemax into a single, stunningly shot film that still manages to compel even as Park’s train wobbles off the tracks in its final third. It’s free on amazon prime and can be rented via iTunes.

Adapted from the novel Fingersmith by Sarah Waters, The Handmaiden is told in three parts, beginning with the story of Sook-hee, a peasant thief who is recruited by the con artist “Count” Fujiwara to become handmaiden to a wealthy heiress and convince the ingenue to marry the fake count so he can then dump her in an insane asylum and make off with her money. Sook-hee agrees after negotiating a better cut of the proceeds for herself, only to fall in love with her mark, Hideko, and lose her commitment to the con. No one’s motives are truly clear here, and Lady Hideko’s uncle isn’t merely the reclusive rare book collector he appears to be; once the first part of the con is revealed, the narrative shifts back to the beginning and shows much of the same material with missing details restored. Everything you see in part one has a purpose, even if it takes most of the film to discover it.

The con drives the plot, but the power of The Handmaiden resides in the scenery and the lead performances. The film is gorgeously shot, from the uncle’s mansion to the Japanese gardens even to the night scenes among the trees, with Park manipulating light and dark or introducing bursts of color to enact quick shifts in tone. There are very obvious parallels to Hitchcock’s Rebecca, and there are scenes in the gardens on the estate where you’d expect to see the girl from Fragonard’s The Swing swaying to and fro.

Kim Tae-ri, making her feature film debut as Sook-hee, nails the urchin’s mixture of overconfidence and naivete, while Ha Jung-woo is perfect as the suave, unctuously charming con man Fujiwara. (The two are both in the upcoming South Korean drama 1987, about the student protests that year that brought down South Korea’s military regime.) Kim Min-hee won several awards for her portrayal of Hideko, perhaps the most thankless role of the three because so much of the script requires her to act numb, although the character gains complexity once the depravity of her uncle becomes apparent in part two; her role just seems less demanding, other than the makeup and hair she’s required to wear while Hideko delivers readings of the books in her uncle’s collection.

The film would almost certainly have received an NC-17 rating here for the two sex scenes between Sook-hee and Hideko, which some critics have tabbed “soft porn” but which would probably escape remark if they involved a hetero pairing. If there’s something objectionable here, it’s the scenes’ length, or some of the dialogue, perhaps badly translated, from Sook-hee that I think was supposed to show that she’s just as naive as Hideko. (Waters herself defended the scenes, saying the women are appropriating a very male pornographic tradition and that queer audiences welcomed them.) Establishing the attraction between the two women as genuine is critical for the credibility of the overall story, and while the second scene is probably too long by half, skipping them entirely would have left the film worse off. The movie’s conclusion, however, brings the off-screen violence from implication to reality with a needlessly grisly torture scene that would have survived just as well without showing us any severed fingers; I haven’t read the novel but I believe that scene was Park’s invention.

I doubt any film would have topped The Salesman for the Best Foreign Language Oscar, given the political circumstances around the latter’s nomination, but I would rank The Handmaiden above the four other nominees. You can argue it’s pornographic, but I think those scenes are both transgressive and true to the original author’s intent; the violence is far more disturbing and less essential to the plot. And the plot is reason enough to watch the film – it’s an old con done up in a new way, with double dealing and secret schemes, by actors who fully inhabit the devious characters they’re portraying. It’s easily among my top ten movies of last year.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2016 movies, con men, highly recommended, korean films, lgbt films, lgbt literature, psychological thrillers

→ June 27, 2017
→ By keith

The Windup Girl.

Paolo Bacigalupi’s 2010 novel The Windup Girl, which won the Hugo and Nebula Awards for the best sci-fi novel of that year, manages to be both fantastical and realistic, with an all-too-believable setting in a world after a series of environmental catastrophes where food supplies are controlled by “calorie” companies and nations have fallen under their extortionary practices. The title character is a genetically modified human, grown in a lab in Japan as a sort of modern servant and concubine, whose mistreatment will lead to the fall of the Thai government and a shift in the area’s ongoing power struggle. Bacigalupi’s story is violent and his worldview bleak, but in a time when the world’s largest economy is pulling out of a worldwide agreement to try to slow man’s effect on the global climate, it seems entirely plausible – and his take on corporate ownership of genes and species doesn’t seem quite so cynical as it might have even seven years ago.

The multifacted plot gives us Anderson Lake, ostensibly an American managing a foreign factory in Thailand but in reality a researcher hunting for unusual genes and species bred or developed by Thai scientists – especially the location of the country’s seedbank, a potential goldmine of new genes for Lake’s employer to use to create new species of grains and other plants to resist the latest waves of diseases and pests. (Bagicalupi has created a rather terrifying-sounding array of these biological threats, including the evocative “blister rust.”) The factory Lake oversees uses animal power to create kink-springs that are used in this post-petroleum world as portable power sources, while also growing species of algae to help generate power to be stored in these springs. He stumbles on Emiko, the “windup girl” of the title, who is now owned by a strip club owner after her original Japanese owner decided to abandon her in Thailand rather than pay the dirigible fare to fly her back to Tokyo. The Thai government’s power is split between two warring factions, Trade and Environment, each of which plays a role in protecting the insular kingdom from outside threats and influences – like the importation of plants carrying new diseases – with each requiring its own sets of bribes and connections before shipments of outside goods can enter the country. When one of Trade’s enforcers, Jaidee, goes too far in punishing an importer who hasn’t paid sufficient bribes, it sets off a chain reaction that will eventually envelop Lake, Emiko, Jaidee’s forces, the heads of Trade, Environment, the army, and the queen’s regent in a political cataclysm that threatens to bring the country down.

The story is violent, especially to Emiko, often way beyond anything necessary for the plot to move forward. While the one major scene where she’s raped and forcibly sodomized leads to a revenge sequence that is integrated into the political storyline, there’s just more detail of her degradation than any reader should need – or than any author should want to offer. It engenders sympathy for her character, but she’s already such a pariah in this society that this is superfluous. Instead it seems like pandering to the worst elements of the audience.

Yet beyond Emiko, is there really a compelling character anywhere in the book? Lake is a blank page; his compassion for Emiko doesn’t fit with the rest of his behavior, and if it’s just sexual attraction, that doesn’t exactly explain the compassion either. There’s no explanation for why he’s one person in his work mode and someone else entirely once he encounters Emiko and ends up saving her from officials chasing her in the street a day or two later. The closest thing to a fully-developed second character in the book is Kanya, Jaidee’s top lieutenant who ends up taking over his squad and finds the agency that Emiko lacks. Their paths don’t intersect – Kanya has a marked disdain for the windup who temporarily helps her hunt for Emiko – but they do represent contrasting sides of the issue of women establishing any sort of control over their lives in a male-dominated world.

Post-environmental catastrophe novels have been around a long time – A Canticle for Leibowitz, set after what appears to have been a nuclear disaster, won the Hugo over forty years earlier – but Bacigalupi manages to fold a number of current problems or concerns into his setting that make it seem immediate where others in the subgenre have been remote. Global temperatures have risen with predictable consequences like higher sea levels. Food insecurity is a political destabilizer in this world, and food shortages are exacerbated by more tumultuous weather patterns and new plagues that evolved around monocultures foisted on the world by GMO food monopolies. Petroleum is gone, presumably exhausted, and methane use is tightly regulated. That means airplanes are gone and cars are luxury items. Air conditioning doesn’t seem to exist, which is particularly relevant to Emiko, who has been designed with smaller pores that mean she can’t sweat properly to cool her body. None of this seems that improbable or that far off, especially with our current government backpedaling on virtually all initiatives to protect the environment.

This novel winning major awards makes sense given the themes it tackles and the level of detail Bacigalupi has invested in his world, but I don’t think it’s that great of a novel in a literary sense due to the lack of compelling central characters. It’s thought-provoking, as many of the great sci-fi novels are, and there’s an immediacy here that stories of interstellar travel or time-shifting can’t bring. After I finished, however, I found the characters had completely vanished from my mind – the setting stuck, but none of the individuals did. That keeps it from the top echelon of sci-fi novels I’ve read in my run through the Hugo winners.

Unrelated, but “Bacigalupi” sounds like something the Hoobs would say.

Next up: I’ve run through three short books since finishing this, including Fritz Lieber’s Hugo-winning novella The Big Time, which is free for the Kindle because it’s in the public domain but which I found boring, and am now reading Ursula K. Le Guin’s A Wizard of Earthsea.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: american literature, dystopian, environment, hugo award, nebula award, science fiction

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