Klawchat 10/26/17.

Starting at 1 pm ET. Questions go in the frame below, NOT in the comments!

Keith Law: You can do it your own way – if it’s done just how I say. Klawchat.

Keith: How important a role does a particular team’s development capability and track record play in your rankings? It strikes me that the abilities of individual teams to develop talent varies widely and often is underrated when assessing a prospects progress. What teams do you think are better in this area? Does it vary by positions? Any prospects you think we harmed because they were drafted by the wrong team?
Keith Law: I don’t consider it at all. The rankings of players are team agnostic because a player can change orgs at any time.

Deacon Phillipe : What’s your reaction to the Girardi firing?
Keith Law: Confusion. But I know there may be details we don’t know.

Guy F.: Am I correct to profile you as an index fund guy? Do you own individual stocks outside what you might get from Disney as part of your comp package?
Keith Law: I am an index funds guy, period.

Deacon Phillipe : I’ve been rooting against the Astros because I hate seeing their blatant tanking rewarded. I know they were playing by the rules of the game, but they basically made a mockery of 3 seasons worth of games to get higher picks. Even the Cubs never sunk so low when they tanked. (I rooted against them last year).
Keith Law: I disagree. One, what they did wasn’t just legal, it was smart – the rules gave them every incentive to do this. Two, asking teams that aren’t going to win anyway to throw away cash on veterans just to win a few more regular-season games does nothing for me. I’d rather see prospects and fringe players get those opportunities. Maybe you’ll find a JD Martinez or a Chris Taylor or a Marwin Gonzalez in there.

Chris: Pax Unplugged will be my first gaming convention. I’m only able to go for one day (Friday) and was wondering if you had any tips for how to approach it? I’m feeling overwhelmed by all the options and going solo so my schedule is whatever I make it.
Keith Law: They can be pretty overwhelming. I’d say leave yourself lots of time to wander the floor and just explore all the new stuff on display, and if you have certain games you love, look for their tournaments or for any free-play sessions. I’ll be at PAX Unplugged all 3 days, and on the Saturday (Nov 18) I’ll be signing copies of Smart Baseball if you bring yours along.

Jimmy Z: Keith, (sorry, screwed up and hit enter before asking question): Joe Girardi. 2014 – Yanks have a -31 run differential, yet win 84. 2016 – Yanks have a -22 run differential, yet win 84. 2017 – Yanks are picked by no one to make the playoffs, and in their “2nd rebuilding year” Joe takes them to Game 7 of the ALCS. Am I missing something here?
Keith Law: I can’t believe that this was about Joe’s on-field results. I also don’t think he can be blamed in any way for their ALCS loss. He made some mistakes, and had some weak spots, but they were legitimately beaten by a better team.

Angel: Hey keith do you see Albert abreu in the top 100 at some point next season?
Keith Law: Possible but not likely. Secondary stuff isn’t that advanced right now.

Joe: As someone who spent so much time in recent years scouting many of the guys killing it in the World Series this year, how cool is it personally to see them all come together like this on the biggest stage?
Keith Law: It’s very rewarding to watch these guys reach the pinnacle.

edward: thanks, keith – thoughts on who the phillies should be looking at for their next manager?
Keith Law: Someone with a strong developmental track record. Gabe Kapler is on their list, and I know him fairly well, enough to recommend him. (The reports that they’d chosen Dusty Wathan already were not accurate. I don’t know where that came from.)

gus johnson: Do you think a player’s salary should be considered in the MVP Voting? To measure the true value of a player, shouldn’t we consider both the results AND the cost? For example, Stanton’s 6.9 WAR isn’t as valuable as Rendon’s 6.9 WAR from a cost perspective.
Keith Law: No. No. Also no.

Chris J: How do you see the Red Sox setting their lineup with Pedroia out around 2 months? Mookie at 2B? Chavis at 2B? Brock Holt?
Keith Law: Probably Holt. Chavis is pretty questionable at third, no reason to think he’ll be able to go right to 2nd and handle it.

Jimmy Hillman: Thanks for the chat! Of the two Pirate prospects that were exalted by many in 2015-2016 but had a rough 2017 – Glasnow or Meadows – which one do you think has the better chance to bounce back in 2018 and reclaim some (all?) of that shine?
Keith Law: Meadows. Health will go a long way for him.

Lyle: The last several Mariners GMs have generally failed to develop and keep position player prospects (essentially Kyle Seager and Mike Zunino are it for the last dozen years). Everyone else either busts (Ackley, e.g.) or is traded away for pennies (Adam Jones, Chris Taylor, etc.) How do the Mariners go about changing that culture in their system before Kyle Lewis and Evan White arrive?
Keith Law: They already changed GMs since all that. But also ownership has to say they’re willing to take a few years of losing to rebuild it – I think the mandate now is for DiPoto to try to win, and that may mean trading someone like Lewis for major-league help.

Mike: Bote has been crushing in the AFL but I’ll give that to a SSS and the Arizona climate. A story came out that he has changed his swing over the last couple of years. He is already 24, but do you think he has a chance as a starter?
Keith Law: Probably a bench guy. Think he can hit some, maybe not enough bat + defense to be more than a second-tier regular at 2nd base, but likely a real utility guy you can plug in at four or five positions.

Brian: Keith what is your take on Nicky Lopez in the Royals system? Looks to be good defensively at short and has a good approach at the plate. Utility infielder or potential starter? Thanks.
Keith Law: Outside chance to start. Can hit, can play short. Power is light, approach isn’t actually that great. Good instincts, though. Stands out in a weak system.

Evan: What are your thoughts on the Mets new manager Mickey Callaway?
Keith Law: He’s never managed, so we just don’t know. I’m not a fan of hiring managers with zero managerial experience at any level.

jp: Does the huge number of cord cutters mean clubs are gonna struggle with future TV deals? Seems like a bubble that could burst, but then again, plenty of fans are still gonna want to watch the games.
Keith Law: It depends on where and whether cord-cutters go for their baseball content. If MLB.tv ends up with a local team option, then that might balance out the revenues – but also provides another chance for MLB to smooth out the revenue gaps between the largest and smallest markets. If 100% of TV revenue came from MLB.tv, for instance, then they could simply divide it equally among all teams. Then the revenue gap would be from attendance and corporate sponsorships, so large market teams would still have an advantage, but much less of one, and maybe revenue-sharing could even go away.

Moltar: If the Mets don’t add Guillorme to the 40 man, he’ll definitely get rule-V’d, no? I feel like the glove would play off the bench at the minimum.
Keith Law: I’m not sure – I wouldn’t say it’s definite. It might be an 8 glove and a 3 bat. That’s not easy to carry.

Dan: Albert Almora Jr. improved mightily against RHP in the second half (123 wRC+). With his above average defense and ability to crush LHP seems like he’s turning into an above average regular.
Keith Law: I do think he’s a regular.

Ben: Have you gotten a chance to see much of Andrew Knizner at AFL? How would you compare to Carson Kelly?
Keith Law: Not even close to Kelly for me. Kelly’s the same seasonal age and already has succeeded in AAA, with good receiving skills and more bat. Knizner has to catch or he’s not a prospect, and I don’t think the glove is a sure thing.

John S: Houston makes the world series. Its rebuild has been marvelous even if not perfect (Aiken, Appel). And… they fire their scouts. What gives? I read that the org wants to focus even more on analytics. Fine and well, but it’s not like there is some cap on what can be spent on scouting. Is it an issue of too much information dilutes useful information?
Keith Law: They believe pro scouting is becoming obsolete. I disagree, of course, but it is their philosophy that trackman data and video ‘scouting’ can replace it.

Stuxnet: Its been a disappointing few years for the Texas Rangers, and they look like they have a mediocre major league team with a bad farm system, putting them in a bad spot for the future. Is it time for them to get a new g.m. in place, since it appears the rest of the league has passed Jon Daniels by?
Keith Law: They won the AL West in 2016, Van Winkle.

Moltar: Consensus seems to be that Calloway is a good hire, but what kind of impact can we expect to see him make on the Mets’ pitchers in the upcoming season?
Keith Law: I would guess very little, now that he’s the manager and not the pitching coach. The latter will be the name that matters to your question.

Amy: Cora got his gig! What will you do with all this free time? Also, thoughts on how Sox get some power in there?
Keith Law: I’m thrilled for him. It’s a good situation given the solid young core on that roster … and potentially difficult given some of the personalities among the veterans. Devers has power, Betts showed more power in 2016 than 2017, Bogaerts has power when his hand isn’t hurt, I think Benintendi will be a 25-30 homer guy. What they could really use is a power hitter at 1b, but the four big 1b free agents (Hosmer, Santana, Morrison, Alonso) aren’t really power bats. I like Sam Travis a lot as a prospect, but I think he’s more a hitter for average than for power.

Craig: I keep thinking back to Brett Gardner’s amazing at bat in Game 7 of the ALDS. I was rooting for the Indians, but by about pitch 10, I just wanted the at-bat to be over. If I felt that way watching it, I can’t imagine how Cody Allen felt trying to pitch to him.

Is being able to continually foul-off pitches a skill that can be taught? If so, how?
Keith Law: I think it’s a function of hand-eye coordination above all else. That is the biggest thing I didn’t see with Pedroia as a rookie (well, that and he was out of shape in September 2006) – he was exceptional at fouling off pitches he couldn’t hit, which is how he made that really unconventional swing work.

Jake: How has Tyler Jay looked in AFL?
Keith Law: What I saw was great, but I talked to Eric Longenhagen last week and he saw about 2 mph less on the fastball than I did.

Dennis: Which are your favorite Agatha Christie novels?
Keith Law: Murder of Roger Ackroyd always stands out for me. I’m nervous about this movie … the ending of Murder on the Orient Express is so iconic that they can’t change it, and I think a lot of people know it, so how will they craft a compelling story where a decent portion of the audience knows the culprit?

Warren for Pres 2020!: Do you think that whenever Trump’s reign of terror is over, we’ll see a cascade of books from various current/former WH staff, such as Sean “Puffy” Spicer and Sarah Huckabee “Don’t Call Me Colonel” Sanders, detailing their true feelings about the human bottle of Ipecac they’re forced to defend and rationalize on a daily basis?
Keith Law: No question. Once it’s safe, there will be dozens of books, documentaries, even some “Game Change” style TV series about it.

Alex: Keith what do you make of all the coaching/front office changes the Giants have made? From the outside the coaches seem like the least of their problems.
Keith Law: I’d heard they felt like the clubhouse had gotten stale. Whether that’s true, or at all relevant to the on-field performance, is another matter.

RSO: Is Brett Gardner criminally underrated? He has the 47th best WAR all-time for a left fielder, and was second this year in WAR (ahead of Gary Sanchez) on the Yankees.
Keith Law: He’s spent about 1/3 of his games in CF, which probably skewed those rankings, and I’ve noticed some centerfielders who play left end up with crazy defensive numbers there because the average at that position is pulled down by the Matt Kemps of the world (hey, we can’t play this guy anywhere, so put him in left). His WAR puts him right with Jeff Heath, a player from the 1940s who played in a roughly similar number of games, and whom I’d never heard of till just now.

Dennis: Are Jahmai Jones and Brandon Marsh of the Angels top 100 prospects? If not, are they close?
Keith Law: Jones was on my top 100 already.

Bort: Hey Keith, thanks as always for your writing and for the chat. If Luis Castillo’s changeup continues to be effective against lefties (21% whiff rate, .110 ISO this year) but his fringy slider doesn’t improve, do you think he will still be an above-average starter? Do you think he’ll be better than Dinelson Lamet, who seems to have a fringy changeup but an effective slider?
Keith Law: I think I’d rather have the FB/CH guy than the FB/SL guy. You can still get same-side hitters with the CH but it’s really hard to get other-side hitters out with a breaking ball (as a starter – lots of relievers do this).

Ron: HI Keith- Any thoughts on the Twins hiring of John Manuel? Good, bad or not any impact? Do you think Molitor is going to embrace more analytics or still old school? Thanks!
Keith Law: Very happy for John. I wouldn’t say the hiring of any area scout, no matter how good, would have an impact the average fan would see. That’s no slight on John, whom I expect to do excellent work for the Twins.

Darryl: Starting a MLB team from scratch today…who’s your 1st pick? Trout? Harper? Correa? Seager?
Keith Law: Still Trout. All great choices. Machado belongs in the discussion set, though.

Amy: Do you think Mookie could still play 2b? Is he capable?
Keith Law: I do, he was very good there, but you’d lose a lot of defense in the OF from doing so.

Matt: The Cards have put together a pretty nice, cost-controlled rotation ( Weaver, CMart, Reyes, Flaherty). Knowing that young SP can be fickle, how do you think this sets them up for the next few years?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s enough in bulk innings or starter certainty. They can certainly supplement from outside – and you didn’t include Hudson or Alcantara, both reasonably close – but that’s only a beginning, not a complete solution.

Sam: Considering the success Altuve is having do you see scouts being more open to not rule someone out because of size or other traditional measures or is he just so far of an outlier that it will have no impact?
Keith Law: Bregman was the #2 pick in the draft, and wasn’t going much later than that anyway, and he’s maybe 5’8″. Benintendi’s no giant. Stroman might be 5’9″, Sonny Gray 5’8″. Nick Allen is 5’6″ and got $2 million (I think) in the draft last year. So teams are open to it. It’s just one factor among many – if you’re small, but strong, with a sound swing, and play a skill position, you’ll still get lots of consideration. Altuve was just so small at 15 that he couldn’t even get the Astros to sign him – they cut him the first time from their scout team in VZ and he had to come back the next day with his dad to beg for another chance.

Jesse: Have you tried Century: Spice Road yet? I think you and your family might really enjoy it. It’s similar to Slendor with maybe a little more strategy.
Keith Law: I played it at GenCon and agree it’s very similar to Splendor, with maybe a little more variation in how you can approach the game. But I didn’t think it was novel – it felt familiar to me.

Evan: Was Avi Garcia’s season a BABIP driven mirage, or is he actually good now?
Keith Law: Can it be both?

Chris: Do you have more info on Jhailyn Ortiz, stats looking good and as a Phillies fan never heard of him
Keith Law: Very interesting power bat with feel to hit, better athlete than expected given his size. They gave him a lot of money as an amateur, and I know some scouts were down on him because they thought he’d get fat, but so far he’s looked great.

Matt: I haven’t seen this mentioned, but the way the Dodgers managed the game last night was…odd. Using 9 relief pitchers in a game vs Verlander?
Keith Law: Hill was wobbly early, no problem with going to Maeda. Really, I can’t blame Roberts for anything. Hinch pressed the “HIT DINGERS” button and that was that.

Eddie Gaedel: If Kong is allowed to return in 2018, do you have the same moral aversion to him as you do to domestic abusers? After all, he risked people’s lives by driving drunk, and he was a serial offender. Can baseball allow him to return on a probationary period, and should they?
Keith Law: I would have no problem with MLB banning him, or even the government saying he can’t get a work visa now. He’s dangerous.

Jimmy: How much do teams factor in Coors for free agents leaving Colorado? I’m mostly wondering if teams will overlook some of Jake McGee’s struggles and treat like he’s the same guy he was with the Rays.
Keith Law: Statcast data will help players in extreme environments, I think. I’m a big McGee fan and will have him fairly high for a reliever on my FA rankings, which I believe go up 11/6.

Matt: What is your degree of confidence that any of De La Cruz, Albertos, Clifton, or Alzolay will be able to help Cub rotation at some point in ’18 or ’19?
Keith Law: 2018, very low. 2019, Alzolay or maybe Clifton. De la Cruz can’t stay healthy and Albertos, while very talented, has barely pitched.

RSO: I know in the past you said Gleyber Torres is best suited for SS, but with Didi Gregorious in tow, what position would you rather play him at 2B or 3B?
Keith Law: Moving Torres off shortstop wastes a good portion of his value.

Ed: I spatchcocked my Turkey last year, and am already getting request this year for it despite not even hosting TG. There is no going back
Keith Law: Really is a game changer. Plus it cooks faster.

Evan: Do the Braves have a hidden gem at catcher in Alex Jackson or is he still too big of a liability behind the plate?
Keith Law: You need to read my AFL posts. He was the lead item in the second one.

Harrisburg Hal: Thanks for posting about the board game apps last week – after feeling like I’d mastered Splendor, I purchased Jaipur and got repeatedly pummeled by the AI.
Keith Law: The Jaipur app’s medium AI kicks my ass. I am not good at that game.

Pete: Last night’s game was fun to watch, but to me, the best play was Hernandez’s tying single that scored Forsythe, which was more fun than watching solo home run after solo home run. If baseball keeps the same ball, combined with the length of games, this isn’t a good long-term outlook for the enjoyment of the sport. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Agree – the last three innings were exciting, but I’d much rather see more balls in play and fewer HR/K. It also felt like we were just waiting for the next homer. It’s aesthetic, though – it was still a great game.

Kelly : How does being on the disabled list affect the Rule 5 draft? (For example, Sam Coonrood in the Giants system was Rule 5 eligible but is on the DL for Tommy John’s.)
Keith Law: There is no offseason DL. All those players must be activated and assigned to a roster.

Steven: Last night Smoltz implied the analytics were to take Hill out after 4 but that seemed to hurt them later when they were very low on bullpen depth when it mattered. Seems like this was a case of over analysis rather than a manager observing that he had a guy who was pitching well with a decent pitch count. Had the been able to get another inning or two out of him it may have made a big difference in the 8-11 innings.
Keith Law: Maybe, but I didn’t think Hill looked sharp, and you really can’t manage inning 5 around innings 10 and 11.

BigPapaChuck: Do you think the Braves already know their fate but have to keep silent until MLB announces it after the WS? They have to have a lot of contingency plans in place, no?
Keith Law: I don’t think that is the case.

Pat D: The word is that the Yankees will look for someone with a mind to analytics. So obviously Dusty isn’t a candidate, right? Is there anyone you know of who might fit that bill who’s ready?
Keith Law: I never heard that Girardi was anti-analytics, so maybe they just want someone even more in favor of using it? It’s a little strange to me. I also don’t know if they’d consider a rookie manager again, or if they want someone who’s managed MLB teams before. Manny Acta is one of the latter who I know is very open to analytics, since I worked with him on BBTN.

JP: % chance Stanton is traded this offseason? And best guess where to?
Keith Law: Low. 20%.

Tom: In the post game last night, Frank Thomas said he didn’t like bringing guys in for a 6 out save essentially because they haven’t been in those situations all season, and hence haven’t practiced it. Granted this was on the heels of Jansen and Giles both blowing leads, but do you find merit in this logic?
Keith Law: I don’t, and I don’t think it was the reason they blew those leads. Jansen threw one bad pitch to Marwin. Is that because he wasn’t used to facing five batters in an outing?

Chris : Who’s going to shell out years and dollars to this year’s starting pitcher FA class? It seems like all clubs realize second contracts for SPs dont make sense unless your name is Scherzer or something.
Keith Law: Except that they’ll all get to the GM meetings, look at their depth charts, and realize they need pitching, and this market is all they have. Guys will still get paid, at least on a per-year basis.

Daniel: Shipley is now old for a prospect but is he still a SP for you? Stillhas two solid secondaries and is a great athlete despite the dip in velocity.
Keith Law: Still a starter, but he needs his old fastball back to be more than a five.

Dr. Bob: You go to the AFL every year. If it is a lot of SSS and guys working on things, what are you and other scouts hoping to see there?
Keith Law: It’s not really guys working on things – that’s instructional league – just guys getting more reps. So it’s a good way to look at swings, deliveries, BP, guys facing better competition than they saw during the year, plus a lot of players on the 40-man bubble (like Guillorme) on whom you might want one more scouting report.

Chris : Would you move Wheeler or Matz to the bullpen? Does it even matter, bc more likely than not they’ll both just get hurt anyway?
Keith Law: I’d consider it depending on what the doctors say. Relief work isn’t a panacea for arm trouble; some guys would get hurt with all the back-to-back usage too.

Daniel: I read that you had Houser 92-95 with a good CB in the AFL. If he can remain healthy he’s a SP, yes?
Keith Law: He’s a starter.

Martha Stewart: Are there any cooking shows you watch besides Iron Chef? Do you have a favorite ‘ethnic food’?
Keith Law: I don’t watch Iron Chef, just Top Chef. Isn’t pretty much all food ethnic?

Jimmy: I’ve read a few times that the Yankees’ player development people have great success helping their pitching prospects throw harder. It always comes up in profiles about Chance Adams. Do you know if there’s any evidence that they’re actually better at it than other teams? Or is this just an anecdote someone noticed and a bunch of other people grabbed?
Keith Law: It’s anecdotal evidence across a pretty long list of players, so I’m inclined to believe it. I know I’ve seen a lot of these guys in Trenton the last few years. Adams isn’t even the best example, with a slightly above average fastball. They got Tate’s fastball back. Sheffield throws harder than ever now. And they keep finding these relievers, like Cody Carroll, late in the draft who get into the system and suddenly start bumping 98.

Craig: How do you feel about Trump’s tax plan announcement?
Keith Law: I think the evidence does not support their claim that tax cuts for the highest income levels will boost economic growth. That may have been true in the 1960s, when the top marginal rates were over 50%, but it appears to be untrue today, when even the top rates are moderate for a developed country. I do think tax cuts can stimulate the economy, but need to go to people who’ll increase consumption as well as investment, and I think no one wants to talk about the benefit of radical tax reform because both parties love to regulate behavior through taxation. (But please, tell me why anyone should be able to deduct mortgage interest – up to $1 million of it! – on a *second* home.)

Timothy : How much stock do you put into the AFL? (Ex: Alex Jackson)
Keith Law: AFL performance is close to meaningless. It’s too small of a sample, in a very hitter-friendly environment. Joey Terdoslavich led the league in homers one year and Atlanta fans went nuts when I said he wasn’t really a prospect.

Patrick: What do you think of Thario? Can he be marketed as a starting infielder and used as trade bait, or is he better served in a utility/depth role? Do you like him or Wade better?
Keith Law: Thairo is a second division starter for me, or a good utility guy. Might have more value in trade in a package given their depth chart.

Clyde: Did Michael Gettys make any progress this year? 191 whiffs certainly suggest not, but he did up his walk rate, I believe.
Keith Law: He was repeating high-A. No.

Nick: Does Justus Sheffield have #1 stuff?
Keith Law: Sure looked like it in the AFL. We’ll see if he can pitch with that stuff for a full season, but it’s very promising.

Brian: Can we please kill the K Zone, now also appearing on Fox? I would like to see the pitch with my own eyes. If it’s a debatable call, show me the K Zone on replay. Am I wrong?
Keith Law: Not a huge fan either. I have Gameday for that stuff. I tend to watch games both ways.

Antonio: What is it about Chance Adams that doesn’t really get him prospect list love? Supposedly throws hard and the numbers are obviously there. I don’t get it.
Keith Law: Doesn’t throw that hard, doesn’t have a real out pitch, undersized without great fastball plane.

Patty O’Furniture: Giancarlo’s not really going to the Giants, is he?
Keith Law: It makes no sense for either club. The Giants’ system is weak at the moment, so the Marlins wouldn’t get much of a return. And the Giants would be taking on an albatross contract for a player who doesn’t make them a contender right away.

Sean: Keith, having just finished your book and reading about the Astros use of high-speed cameras and such in their pro scouting, I have a question about player development. How much is this stuff being used in the minor leagues?
Keith Law: It’s all over the place. You can’t go to a minor league game without seeing the cameras the parent clubs have set up to record their own guys and the visitors.

Daniel: Is it just injuries that have derailed Gilbert Lara so far? Or is he not that good?
Keith Law: I think he’s just not that good, but he’ll turn 20 on Monday and I don’t want to entirely write him off.

Pete: Isn’t a stale clubhouse what you get when all your players are old?
Keith Law: You might say that, yes.

Ridley Kemp: Are you aware of any benefits that Major League Baseball is involved with for Puerto Rico? I’ve been poking around and can’t find anything, which surprises me given the league’s ties to the island.
Keith Law: They gave $1 million in the wake of the hurricane, and individual teams have done more as well (I think the Pirates in particular have).

Patty O’Furniture: Would a bad contract swap of Matt Kemp for Jacoby Ellsbury be beneficial for either team? Or is that just kicking the can down the road?
Keith Law: I’d rather have Ellsbury. I don’t think Kemp has any value at all.

addoeh: I assume you have started your free agent list. How difficult is it to get to 50?
Keith Law: Getting to 50 isn’t hard, but the quality drops off right around 30. Beyond that, my capsules will be much shorter.

Ryan: What are your thoughts on the direction the Pirates are heading? They obviously had a fantastic 3 year run, but are now coming off of back to back losing seasons and the young reinforcements that were supposed to be arriving to bolster those playoff rosters have not lived up to expectations aside from Bell and maybe Taillon. I’m concerned the window already shut without them ever even getting out of the NLDS.
Keith Law: Might be time to churn the roster a bit – not a full rebuild, but to trade away some guys approaching free agency before they leave. They also had disappointing years from four of their top five prospects, and that has to turn around, obviously.

Dennis: As an Angels fan, I’m glad that Mike Scioscia’s ridiculous 10 year deal is up after next season. Do you agree that they should hire a new manager?
Keith Law: Yes. If they won’t just fire him, they should tell him beforehand this is it, and if he wants to stay and manage, they’ll honor him at season-end with some big celebration or whatever. I don’t care. They just need new thinking in the dugout and he’s not providing it.

Matt: I’ve heard you mention often that the Orioles aggressively revamp their young pitchers’ deliveries. Zach Davies also mentioned this briefly in a Fangraphs interview. Could you give us some specifics? What are they doing? Is this a Dan Duquette thing? Or a Buck thing? Or just a long-standing Orioles thing?
Keith Law: My understanding is that it’s been Buck and also some of their pitching coaches, not Duquette. I personally don’t like it – I would never change a pitcher’s delivery unless he was having injury or effectiveness problems. You’re asking for trouble.

Alex: Have you heard any scouts discuss Kolby Allard’s year? Was his velocity as down as reports say – 88-92. I know you had him in your Top 50.
Keith Law: He was 88-93 the last time I saw him in HS, and generally is 90-93 anyway, so I don’t know how this is “down” enough to worry about, especially for a young guy who doubled his workload this year.

Sage: Thoughts on Chili Davis new cubs hitting coach.
Keith Law: Who knows? I really don’t think we know much about the values of most coaches, unless they have several big successes or several big failures.

Max: What kind of return do you think the yankees would get if they traded Didi this offseason?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t deal him for less than a mid-rotation starter. And you might get more, if one was available. With Torres coming off TJ, though, there’s no urgency for a deal.

Ghost of Randy Smith : Do you think the Red Sox would take Miguel Cabrera?
Keith Law: They’d be foolish to do so.

CL : I saw on Baseball America that Max Fried was comped to James Paxton, would you agree with this assessment?
Keith Law: I would not. They’re so different from delivery to stuff to health history.

Matt: Pete is wrong. The best play was clearly the 2nd Base Ump getting drilled in the nads.
Keith Law: It worked on so many levels!
Keith Law: I just realized we’re way past 2 pm, so I’ll wrap this up now. Thank you all as always for reading and for all of your questions. I should be back as usual next Thursday to do this again. Enjoy the rest of the Series! #fyeahbaseball

Tokaido.

Tokaido came out in 2012, the third hit title in three straight years from designer Antoine Bauza (7 Wonders, Takenoko), and like those previous two titles, it combines elegant rules and beautiful artwork into a short game time that allows for frequent replay. This year brought a Tokaido app (iOSAndroid) that has fantastic animations and a solid tutorial, although I did hit one glitch in one game.

The Tokaido was the most important of the Five Routes of the Edo period in Japan, all government-regulated paths for travel and trade, with the Tokaido connecting Edo (now Tokyo) to the imperial capital of Kyoto. In this boardgame, each player takes on a specific character of a Japanese traveler who will move along a straight track that includes various stops where the player can take a specific action, as well as four inns where the player can buy a meal for victory points. The order of the stops varies along the track, and the player who is furthest back on the track gets the next turn. There are six distinct types of stops in the game: gain 3 coins; take one “encounter” card (which gives you something good at random); donate to the temple for one point per coin; buy one or more souvenirs; take a hot springs card for either 2 or 3 points; take the next card for one of the three panoramas in the game. The souvenirs come in four types, and cost 1 to 3 coins each; you gain points for each different type you collect in a set, 1 for the first card, 3 for the second, 5 for the third, 7 for the fourth, so potentially 16 points for each quartet you collect. The three panoramas are all different lengths, and you gain points for each card you collect; the longest is five cards, and you’d get 15 points for completing it (1+2+3+4+5).

At each inn, you can choose to buy a meal, each of which is worth six points. Some cost 1 coin, some cost 3, and the first person to reach the inn thus gets first choice of all of the meals for that round (you draw one card per player plus one more). If you get there last, you get the last choice, and may have to pay more, but you will be the first to leave the inn for the next round. You can’t buy the same meal twice in the same game, however.

There are also seven bonus cards for 3 points apiece. The first player to finish each panorama gets a 3-point card. The player with the most encounter cards, the most meal cards, the most hot springs cards, and the most souvenir cards at game-end gets a 3-point bonus card for each as well. The temple gives bonuses to the most generous players, 10 to whoever gave the most over the course of the game, then lower bonuses to each donor below that.

The nature of the game means blocking other players can be an effective strategy, especially given the way the scoring rewards players for hitting the same destination type (or color) repeatedly. I think it’s more valuable in 2- or 3-player games, where only one player can occupy any stop on the track at a given time, than in 4- or 5-player games, where some track locations have a second spot for another player. You may wish to stop another player from finishing a panorama, or keep a player who’s low on cash from hitting the 3-coin space. That said, even in a smaller game, I wouldn’t use this as a primary strategy; there’s a big opportunity cost to skipping spaces if you’ve visited that color type earlier in the game.

Although you can move as far along the track as you want on your turn, in reality, your best move is nearly always to take the next open space. Skipping spaces can give other players additional turns before you get to go again, so until the fourth section (the last set of spaces before the game ends), you’ll probably want to take the next space every time, maybe occasionally skipping just one space to get something specific, like moving to a yellow spot to get 3 coins if you’re out of cash. In the fourth section, it can make more sense to move ahead to complete a panorama or try to get the fourth souvenir in a set because those deliver higher points rewards than other moves. Those will depend on what you’ve accomplished earlier in the game, and sometimes what others have done – there’s a 3-point bonus for being the first to complete each panorama, and end-game temple bonuses depend on who donated the most – will alter your choices.

The app, by Funforge’s digital division, looks fantastic. Rather than simply implementing the boardgame as a 2D experience, they’ve animated everything, so you see the board from an isotropic view and the player-characters jog from space to space. There’s also a line at the bottom of the screen that represents all the possible stops between inns, so you can see what’s coming up, and you can press there to select your next destination or you can scroll through the 3D view to get there. Each time you stop at any place that will require a decision, you get a fresh screen that shows you all of your options – for example, at the souvenir stand, you’ll see the three choices for you at that stop, and on the left side are the four symbols with numbers indicating how many of each you already own. (I played the iOS version.)

I did experience one bug in the app, just the second time I played it, and it hasn’t recurred since: one of the animated AI characters ran to the next stop but couldn’t quite get there and ended up sort of running in place. I had to kill the app and restart it to get out of that. There’s only one level of AI player, but I’ve found it to be perfectly competent, enough challenge for me as a relative newbie to the game.

Bauza’s got quite a track record of successful designs, and I’d rate Tokaido behind three of his better-known titles – 7 Wonders, Takenoko, and the two-player game 7 Wonders Duel – but ahead of the Spiel-winning coop game Hanabi or 2016’s Oceanos. My daughter, now 11, loved it right out of the box and picked up the strategy pretty quickly, so I’m comfortable recommending it as a good family game that you can easily play on a school night given its 30 to 40 minute playing time.

Years of Grace.

I’m deep in the forgotten winners of the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction – mostly titles that won while the award was still called the Pulitzer Prize for the Novel, as it was until 1948. At least a dozen winners from that period are either out of print or only available for an exorbitant cost (likely intended only for sale to academic readers and libraries). T.S. Stribling’s The Store was one of the latter, but the dated, racist language in the book more than explained why it’s almost completely forgotten today. Margaret Ayer Barnes’ 1931 winner Years of Grace, also only available at a ridiculous price ($42 on amazon as I write this), differs greatly from some of the other ephemeral winners of its era, in that it’s actually a fine book that holds up adequately despite the 80-plus years since its publication. The moral compass of the protagonist (and, I presume, the author) seems old-fashioned, but the same is true of novels from the Regency and Victorian eras of England, and no one seems to mind those. Instead, Years of Grace, seen through today’s lens, reads as a contemporary look at the changing roles of women in American middle- and upper-class society at a time when their rights were starting to expand.

The plot here is a bit by-the-numbers, salvaged by the rich development of the main character, Jane Ward. The three sections of Years of Grace cover three distinct periods of her life: her teenage years, where she has a girlish crush on a young French artist, but their plans to marry are scotched by their parents; the early part of her marriage, where she nearly consummates an affair with her best friend’s wayward husband; and when her children are grown and similar extracurricular activities complicate their lives and Jane’s as well. Jane evolves over the course of the novel, from innocent and somewhat flighty teenager to a young mother feeling hemmed in by her solid but unexciting marriage to her later years, where she takes the role of her own parents but lacks the same power over her children. The parallels in situations are too on the nose, and the transition from her teenage years to her ennui in marriage is rather abrupt – it’s never clear whether the problem is Jane playing “what if” in her mind or if she just married a really boring man.

The real flaw in Years of Grace, however, is that there’s so much talking and not a lot of doing. In the third section, when there’s a scandal among Jane’s children (a plot device that also appears in another Pulitzer winner, Ellen Glasgow’s In This Our Life), it’s shocking not because of what the characters involved have done, but because the book has been so sedate up until that point. Jane’s brief dalliance with Andre while they were still teenagers feels like nothing to us today, and would feel the same to her children if they knew. The mores of her generation and those of the the next generation are worlds apart, and she can’t make the adjustment – that, in and of itself, is enough to fill a novel. Barnes’ heroine makes difficult choices, but because she pulls up short, her subsequent regrets seem overly dramatic:

“When you love people, you’ve got to be decent. You want to be decent. You want to be good. Just plain good – the way you were taught to be when you were a little child. Love’s the greatest safeguard in life against evil. I won’t do anything, Jimmy, if I can possibly help it, that will keep me from looking anyone I love in the eye.”

Barnes’ prose is the novel’s other strength beyond Jane’s characterization, as the book flows quickly despite a relative paucity of action. Perhaps writing ten or twenty years later would have allowed to her to do more with the character – to have her put her marriage into real danger, or to go further in the mental what-if gymnastics that bother her throughout her married life. Perhaps some of the more dismal entries in the early years of the Pulitzer Prize have made me go soft, but I actually didn’t mind Years of Grace even with those flaws. It’s a quaint read, but a well-written one, with a main character you will like even if you don’t agree with her choices or feelings.

Aside: There’s very little about the book available online, but it makes an incongruous appearance on a Real Simple list of 50 books recommended by modern authors. It didn’t even merit a full review in the New York Times when it was first published, appearing as the first review in a two-page collection of shorter writeups.

Next up: I’m reading Ellen Glasgow’s In This Our Life, which I mentioned above.

Entropy: Worlds Collide.

Entropy: Worlds Collide is a very quick-playing card game of simple set-collection and not-so-simple actions, because you can’t do the same thing another player wants to do on the same turn. These “clashes” can result in players repeatedly unable to do anything – unless one of them takes the card that resolves clashes in their favor, which can spur a whole new set of fighting over who gets that card.

Entropy has players take one of six potential character cards, each with a unique ability, and asks players to collect the four cards (called “shards”) representing that player’s “reality.” The players are supposed to be characters from parallel universes whose realities have become jumbled, and thus must fight to be the first to reassemble one’s reality – placing all four shards face up – to win the game. The four shards from each player’s reality are shuffled into a central deck (the “nexus”) along with four cards from another, unused reality, plus one wild shard, and each player starts the game with one such card, face down, in his/her “hold.”

Each player has the same set of six action cards, numbered 1 through 6. Once you play an action card, you discard it to the table in front of you, and can’t reuse it until you have used all your actions or played your Reset (card 5) action. Card 1 allows you to use your character’s ability. Card 2 allows you to flip over one face-down card anywhere on the board – including in another player’s hold. Card 3 lets you take the top two cards from the nexus and place one in your hold (discarding what’s already there if you have one). Card 4 lets you take a shard from anywhere on the table – the nexus, the discard pile, or an opponent – except from an opponent’s reality. Once a card is played to someone’s reality, it’s there for the rest of the game. Card 5 is the aforementioned reset, and Card 6 lets you take the Anchor card.

Players all play their actions simultaneously, but if two or more try to play the same action, they clash and no one gets to play that round – unless one of those clashing players has the Anchor card. If you have the Anchor, you win any clash and can take the action in question, while everyone else in the clash has to sit the round out. So the game truly hinges on the Anchor, which starts the game in the middle of the table but should change hands frequently (unless you want one player to run away with things).

Because the deck of shards is so small and you can go through the discard pile, there isn’t much deduction involved in collecting your cards, other than perhaps trying to guess what’s in other players’ holds. The deduction in this game is around the action selections – you need to figure out what other players need to play, and then try to play something different, unless you have the Anchor.

Entropy is a light, diversionary game, although I think it aspires to a bit more. The clashes would seem to invite negotiation (and lying), but there’s no direct mechanism for this in the game, and no currency to use to try to ensure compliance or convince someone else to do what you want. There are certain character/action combinations that seem overly strong, such as the character who can play an action and force all other players to discard that action card … which, if you do it with Reset, kind of blows the other players out of the game.

Entropy: Worlds Collide also has a separate expansion called Echo of Time that introduces a second storyline, some new roles, a one-versus-many option, a way to play with five players (although the rules warn you there will be many clashes), and a second, stronger Anchor card for players to fight over. We found Entropy enjoyable, but a filler game, and probably not one we’ll go back to a ton because there seem to be little imbalances in the game play. The game was available at Rule & Make’s booth at GenCon but won’t ship to buyers until December 2017. The publishers do have another game out, Skyward, that we like a lot more, and that will be the subject of my next review for Paste in early November.

Stick to baseball, 10/21/17.

I wrote two scouting posts for Insiders from my week in the Arizona Fall League, which you can read here and here. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

I reviewed the card/dice game Valeria and its new expansion here on Friday; my next boardgame review for Paste will go up in early November. I also posted about a big boardgame app sale going on right now from Asmodee Digital.

The schedule for PAX Unplugged, a new boardgaming con to be held in Philadelphia in November, is now up. I’ll be signing copies of Smart Baseball there on November 18th and plan to attend the entire event.

And now, the links…

Valeria: Card Kingdoms.

Valeria: Card Kingdoms came out in 2015 from Daily Magic Games and has been steadily expanded ever since, including the latest release, this summer’s Flames & Frost, which is also the largest Valeria expansion to date. The game combines some great elements of other games, including the extensibility of Dominion, but more than anything else it takes the core mechanic of Machi Koro and improves on it dramatically. The theme is different, and there are other major variations, but this really is Better Machi Koro, to the point that I can’t imagine pulling MK out again now that we have Valeria on the shelves.

Valeria will at least start out as familiar to Machi Koro players: Each player starts with two cards, a Peasant (with the number 5 on it) and a Knight (number 6), and on every turn, the active player rolls the two dice to ‘activate’ certain cards. In Valeria, three cards are typically activated with each dice roll – the number on each individual die and the total of the two. (If they’re equal, some cards will thus be activated twice.) If you are the active player and you have any cards with those numbers on them, you get a specific reward in gold, magic, or strength tokens; if you’re not the active player, you also get a reward, but it’s usually smaller than what the active player gets.

On each turn, you get two actions, and can do one of four things. One is to just take a single gold, magic, or strength token, which is especially useful at the beginning of the game, but isn’t exactly why you’re here. The second action is to buy a Citizen card from the table. Citizens are numbered from 1 through 8, plus a 9/10 card and an 11/12 card. Citizens with higher-probability dice rolls on their cards cost more to buy, and, unlike in Machi Koro, you pay more to buy multiple copies of the same card – face value plus one more gold coin for each copy of the card you already have.

The third action is to buy a Domain card, which range from 5 coins to at least 12 coins, and give you end-game victory points as well as some recurring extra abilities or bonuses during the remainder of the game, such as reducing some card costs or allowing you to steal tokens from other players every turn. The fourth is to ‘defeat’ a Monster card on the table; there are five stacks of Monsters, sorted by type (a symbol in the upper left), and they get increasingly difficult to defeat as you move down the stack. You defeat Monsters with strength tokens and sometimes with magic tokens as well, earning an immediate reward (usually gold and/or other tokens, sometimes a free Citizen card instead) and end-game victory points.

There’s one other avenue to points that is unique to each player. At the start of the game, you’re dealt two Duke cards that detail specific game-end bonuses that are tied to the symbols found in the upper right of all cards (Domains, Monsters, and Citizens, especially the first two), or just to the number of Domains you bought or Monsters you defeated, and something for the leftover tokens you have. Add the points from your Duke to the points on your Domains and Monsters and any extra points you picked up during the game (some Citizens let you take a victory point rather than, say, two gold) and you get your total. The game begins with twenty card stacks in total, and when the number of Exhausted (depleted) stacks reaches twice the number of players, the game ends.

Here Be Monsters.
Here be Monsters.

The expansions mostly add twists with new Citizens, Monsters, Domains, and Dukes, varying the possible ways to score and altering how you might combine cards, while also giving the game the Dominion-like aspect of allowing you to mix and match cards so the game has functionally infinite replayability. The Flames and Frost expansion is larger than the previous ones, large enough that you can play a complete game using only cards from the new box other than the starter Knight and Peasant cards and the Exhausted cards from the base game. Several expansions introduce Event cards as well, which are shuffled into the Exhaustion deck; if you draw an Event card when a pile is exhausted, something happens to all players, usually something not good.

Game play takes about 30 minutes for 2 to 4 players – we haven’t tried it with five – not including setup time, which can get longer if you want to craft your own custom set of Citizens for that particular game. My daughter and her friend, both 11, had no trouble understanding the rules, and my daughter even tied me in our first two-player match. The iconography within the game, which limits its reliance on English (for the global market), can be a little confusing at first, but we kept the rules handy as a reference to walk us through it. If you liked the main idea of Machi Koro but found the game somewhat broken, especially given the way players could monopolize certain dice rolls, then I give Valeria my very strong recommendation.

Asmodee Digital app sale.

A bunch of the best boardgame apps out there are on sale right now courtesy of publisher Asmodee Digital, and since there are too many to squeeze into a tweet or FB post, I’m going to list my favorites among them (they have over 20 titles on sale) here with links to my reviews and to the iOS/Android stores.

Ticket to Ride ($1.99): Review, iTunes Store, Android version

Splendor ($1.99): Review, iTunes store, Android version

Pandemic ($1.99): Review, iTunes store, Android version

Small World 2 ($1.99): Review, iTunes Store, Android version

Jaipur ($0.99): Review, iTunes store, Android version

Ticket to Ride First Journey ($1.99): Review, iTunes store, Android version

Also, I have only played Twilight Struggle ($1.99) on Steam and haven’t reviewed it, but it’s also on sale for iPads and Android tablets. It’s a two-player game that I think requires a lot of playing experience to play it well because you must be familiar with the cards in your deck.

The New York Trilogy.

Paul Auster’s New York Trilogy is a collection of three novellas that are just barely connected enough that I would call this one novel, although it certainly bends the boundaries of the form. Each part starts out as a detective story, but turns into something else entirely, exploring questions of identity and meaning, with the three protagonists devolving into madness as their “cases” go awry. The work appears on the Guardian‘s 2003 list of the hundred greatest novels ever written, which is the only reason I even knew of its existence.

The first novella, City of Glass, covers a writer named Daniel Quinn who works under a pseudonym, William Wilson, about a detective named Max Work. Quinn gets a strange call one night asking for the detective Paul Auster, and after dismissing the first call, receives another one a few nights later and decides to play along, pretending to be Auster and taking on the case, which involves protecting a young man, Peter Stillman, from his abusive father as the latter is about to be released from prison. Peter speaks in a unique, stilted fashion, the result of the abuse his father, who was gripped by a sort of religious mania, put him through. Quinn decides to take the job, following the father, also named Peter Stillman, from Grand Central Station on the day of his release to the flophouse where he settles, eventually forcing a meeting with the older man, while also tracking down Paul Auster, the writer (not a detective), who is working himself on an article on the narrator character of Don Quixote. Quinn assumes the identity of the Auster-detective and goes undercover to an absurd extent, such that the case gets away from him and he begins to lose his own sense of self.

Ghosts, the shortest of the three acts, covers a detective named Blue, who is hired by the unseen White to stake out a target named Black. Every character has a color for his/her name – sometimes just part of the name, sometimes that’s all we get – but Blue, like Quinn in the first story, veers off the path, as he finds that watching Black day in and day out seems increasingly pointless, and eventually he decides to try to stalk White and find out what the purpose of the assignment is. It doesn’t go well, as you might imagine.

The Locked Room has the most conventional narrative of the three stories, and works less like a detective story and more like a psychological study. The unnamed narrator finds out that his childhood friend Fanshawe, with whom he’s had no contact for a decade, has disappeared, asking his wife to contact the narrator if he doesn’t reappear within a certain length of time and to have the narrator look through his collected writings. Fanshawe’s unpublished works turn out to be critical masterpieces and become commercially successful enough to allow the narrator, who quickly falls for and marries Fanshawe’s wife, to walk away from his own life and become Fanshawe’s agent, of a sort, as the steward of his friend’s various works. Of course, Fanshawe isn’t dead, and the narrator can’t leave well enough alone, especially once rumors start that Fanshawe is just a fabrication, so he tries to track his friend down despite explicit instructions not to do so. The resolution of this ties the three stories together in an unexpected and (by design) incomplete fashion, which I would argue makes the three novellas together a single work of narrative fiction despite the incongruities between stories.

Postmodern with metafictional elements, The New York Trilogy plays with layers of reality to push the three protagonists through varying levels of internal and external rebellion, against their senses of self and against the perception that they lack free will in a universe that is forcing action upon them. Blue and the nameless narrator both try to find the scriptwriters directing their lives. Quinn, himself an author, is presented with an entirely new script, but becomes obsessed with its narrative to the point that he completely loses himself, as if he’s playing a role that consumes him. In all three stories, Auster gives us less-than-reliable narrators and causes to doubt whether the antagonists or their backstories are real. Even when he unites the three narratives in the last few pages of The Locked Room (with a few scattered hints before that), the truth remains ambiguous – it’s possible that the stories all share a character, or that a character from one story created one of the others. It’s a work that asks questions without answering them, but still manages to grab the reader with the detective-novel paradigm and determination (if not entirely hinged) of its lead characters. I’m a devoted fan of noir detective fiction; this might be more gris than noir, but it works well with its foundation.

Next up: I’m reviewing out of order, but I’m currently on Frederik Pohl’s Hugo & Nebula Award-winning novel Gateway.

Klawchat 10/19/17.

My two Arizona Fall League roundup posts are both up for Insiders – part one and part two.

Keith Law: Most of all you’ve got to hide it from the kids. Klawchat.

Tom Flannery: What every day position players do you see the Cubs possibly shopping this offseason for a pitcher to replace Arrieta, assuming they definitely do not re-sign him? Also, are there any free agent bullpen arms you can see them going after?
Keith Law: I feel like they already did that with the trade for Quintana. He’s the Arrieta replacement. The FA class is fairly weak overall but I will have full rankings as usual after the World Series.

Tanaka: If Tanaka opts out (which he probably will $67 mil shouldn’t be hard to beat) what would you be willing to offer him?
Keith Law: I don’t know if he’ll opt out given the known issue with his elbow. The weak class works in his favor, but I’m not sure about teams offering him much more given that he’s seen as more of a risk for a season-ending injury than your average starter.

Greg: A couple Alex Jackson questions: 1) are the issues you saw fixable ones behind the plate? 2) if he has to move back to the outfield, what were the reports on his defense in a corner when he was with Seattle? 3) is the bat enough to profile as a corner OF in the big leagues? Thanks for the chat.
Keith Law: I don’t think they are fixable, he’s playable in the outfield but not average, the bat may still profile.

Brian: I’ve become frustrated with the Cubs starting Jon Jay in now 7 straight playoff games. Jon Jay is fine, but I refuse to beleieve Jon Jay should be starting 7 straight playoff games. Am I right to be frustrated…or is it just that Heyward has lost himself and Schwarber can’t hit lefties, etc.?
Keith Law: I don’t see the great alternative here, especially with Schwarber essentially a platoon guy at the moment.

Chris : Marcos Molina and Peter Alonso for Dee Gordon with Mets taking on all of his solid contract, who says no? (I think Marlins would probably want more but asking as a delusional Mets fan)
Keith Law: Delusional indeed.

Peter: Assuming Cora gets hired by the Red Sox, do you have any views on the managerial qualities of any of the remaining candidates for the Mets already interviewed (Callaway, Long, Acta and McEwing)?
Keith Law: I know Acta, having worked with him a few years at ESPN, and think he brings a strong mix of analytical and traditional thinking to the table, and the ability to work with a lot of different sorts of players. Also bilingual, which I think is a huge advantage. I’d absolutely recommend him. I don’t know the others personally, but have heard nothing but praise for Callaway as a pitching coach (which is a very different role than manager).

Frank: North Korea’s rhetoric is really beginning to scare me. Will we still be around in a year’s time?
Keith Law: I’m more scared of our guy than their guy. They have everything to lose by launching a real attack – their economy is only propped up by imports and foreign aid, or else there’d be famine.

Bob: I think you have mentioned it somewhere in a chat before, but do you have any book recommendations for a first time expecting father?
Keith Law: The Happiest Baby on the Block.

Jay: If you could pick one show that’s been cancelled to come back for one more season, what would it be?
Keith Law: I’d take as much Broadchurch as I could get. Others: Pushing Daisies, Atlantis, Firefly.

Rahn: How does Shane Baz slot in the Pirates’ rankings for you? Does he have Mitch Keller kind of upside? And how do you feel about Ke’Bryan Hayes with his stops and starts due to injury?
Keith Law: I haven’t even looked at org top 10s or 20s yet. I think Baz has a bigger arm than Keller, but is a different kind of pitcher, more power, less command/breaking ball.

Ryan: Has Corey Ray’s swing changed dramatically from when you saw him in the spring of 2016 and if so, is it fixable?
Keith Law: I detailed the changes in his setup in my first AFL post (linked above). Fixable, but why hasn’t anyone done it yet?

Eddy: Learned about a couple of power bats in the twins system, Brent Rooker and Lewin Diaz. Anything of note with them?
Keith Law: Couple of power bats. Rooker has been old for almost everywhere he’s played, and you’re hoping he can work in left field. Diaz is younger, maybe more hit tool right now, but also might not have a position.

Matt: Last night Tim Kurkjian said the Yankees best hitter was Sanchez and not Judge. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I do not. I think it’s Judge.

Mac: Do you think an amateur pitcher can learn to throw strikes or is strike throwing an innate skill?
Keith Law: I think pitchers can improve control and command, but there are other variables that make it easier or harder, like athleticism or repeatability of a delivery.

EricVA: Greg Bird has looked great…when healthy. Do you think his true level is what we saw in 2015 or is that too optimistic?
Keith Law: Probably a little below 2015, but more than good enough to write him into the 2017 Opening Day lineup. This is part of why I’ve never bought them as a Hosmer destination – they have Bird, and they love him as a player. If they believe he’s healthy, going outside for a 1b makes little sense.

David: If you were named GM of the Braves, what moves would you look to make for this upcoming season? Would you just go with the kids, or try and acquire a guy like Stanton?
Keith Law: Would explore the market for hitters, especially at spots where the farm is weaker (3b comes to mind), and see if some of the upper level pitching depth could be packaged in such a deal.

Jshep12: Most interesting Arizona Fall League team??
Keith Law: Eh, they’re all interesting, but I wish I’d seen Peoria another time or two.

Cora: So from what it sounds like right now Alex Cora is going to have his pick of managerial openings which opening would you say is most attractive?
Keith Law: Depends on what he wants. Boston is a win-now situation with a tremendous and talented young core, but comes with high expectations and a couple of strong personalities to deal with. Philadelphia might be more interesting to someone who’s focused on development, given the wave of young hitters who’ve already arrived or are on their way.

Dana: Putting career length aside for the moment, is Didi Gregorious a better player than Derek Jeter? More power, better defense for sure.
Keith Law: Does he have more power, or is he playing with a juiced ball?

RSO: Is Gleyber Torres better suited to play 2nd base or 3rd base?
Keith Law: He’s best suited to play shortstop.

Dr. Bob: Though the paradigm established by the use of Andrew Miller and others last postseason did not really carry into the regular season, it has broken out in a huge and unexpected way this postseason. Few starters going beyond the 4th inning, 4-6 relief pitchers most nights and 4 -hour games. Is this an anomaly or a trend?
Keith Law: I think it’s a trend, but as others have pointed out, it might be a bit overused too. The rational argument behind it is largely the “times through the order” issue. That doesn’t necessarily support the “let’s empty the bullpen” strategy we seem to see.

RSO: After his performance so far in the playoffs would you resign Masahiro Tanaka if he opts out if you were the Yankees?
Keith Law: Yes, in that they know more about his health than any other team. If they’re not interested, that would be a tremendous negative signal.

Angel: What you think the Yankees should do with Torres/Andújar situation? It seem like one of the two don’t have a spot on the team for next year.. same goes for Clint Frazier if they can’t get rid of ellsbury
Keith Law: Does Andujar have to make the team next year? Seems like both guys would benefit from starting in AAA again, Torres to make up for lost reps, Andujar to continue to work on recognition and defense.

Moe Mentum: If I get accepted at an Ivy League college, should I go? There’s a “next-tier” school that I might like a little better, but that’s a pretty big opportunity I’d be declining.
Keith Law: I think going to an Ivy confers two tangible benefits: the value of the name on your resume, and the value of the alumni network. They’re not all equal in those regards, though. On the other hand, they can be prohibitively expensive, and I wouldn’t advocate them if you have a much more affordable “next-tier” option available, especially if the latter school is strong in your desired area of study.

Daniel: You think Fried’s most realistic outcome is an underachieving 3/4?
Keith Law: No, I think his most realistic outcome is a solid 3 with a chance of a 2-plus. Will probably need to work more with his offspeed and less with his four-seamer.

Daniel: Tapia should take over for CarGo, right?
Keith Law: Yes. CarGo very quietly had an atrocious season this year – under replacement level by FG.

Gene Mullett: Thanks for heads up on Twitter. Are you a fan of that site? I find it a necessary evil. Hate going there, but it’s where all my favorite baseball & hockey writers are now.
Keith Law: Yep. There’s value there, but they remain underequipped (or insufficiently motivated) to deal with the real problems of harassment, hate speech, and fake accounts. Oh, by the way, I just got a notification on my phone suggesting I watch the Periscope feed of a neo-Nazi speaking at some school in Florida. Not helping, Twitter.

Daniel: Tanner Scott the best RP prospect in the minors?
Keith Law: No.

Daniel: Julian Merryweather seems to have a 4/5 profile to me. That sound right to you? Or is he more of a long-man?
Keith Law: Sounds right to me.

DH: How much do you suppose Austin Hays will hit? is he a .280 hitter with 29 hr’s at his peak?
Keith Law: The HR projections all depend on what the baseball is like, no? Just about every regular hit 5+ homers more than I would have projected or, I think, most projection systems would have had for them a few years back. I think he can hit for average and power, yes, with moderate to low OBPs.

Christian: Hello, big fan of you work and thank you for all of the quality content. I was wondering if you can explain why minor league teams are not in Canada anymore? I remember minor league teams in Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa, etc. Now if I do not believe any minor league team plays in Canada, just wanted to know if this was an MLB decision or individual teams? Thank you in advance.
Keith Law: I believe low attendance & expense of travel to/from those places (Edmonton is just this side of Yellowknife) were the two drivers.
Keith Law: Vancouver has a short-season team, BTW.

Danny: Do you know why Dillon Tate wasn’t sent to the AFL? Concerned about another injury?
Keith Law: Don’t know, players are pulled all the time for trivial reasons, and he pitched quite a bit down the stretch as Trenton made the playoffs.

addoeh: Why would Houston fire all of its scouts?
Keith Law: They believe pro scouting is becoming obsolete thanks to trackman data becoming available at nearly every minor league park and the prevalence of minor league video. I don’t agree, but it’s a take.

Mike: Do teams get access to prospects’ medical reports prior to the draft ? Didn’t Brady Singer go unsigned as a 2nd round pick out of HS after Toronto found something iffy on an MRI ? How will that affect his 2018 draft status ?
Keith Law: Teams only get the medical reports players submit, and if a player hasn’t had an MRI before the draft, there’s nothing for him to send to teams. I won’t comment on an amateur player’s medicals unless they’re already public.

Adam D.: Do you think Duggar can take over as the starting CF in San Francisco by June?
Keith Law: He looked off his game last week; I think the lost season has really held him back.

Gary: The Stanton to the Giants rumor persists….would simply taking on his contract while adding a low grade prospect or two be enough? Because, the Giants really have nothing but lower grade prospects to offer.
Keith Law: Who’s pushing that rumor? It doesn’t make much sense to me.

Adam D.: If the Giants are intent on getting Chris Shaw on the field, would you have him try to fake LF or send Belt out there?
Keith Law: Shaw can’t play LF. That’s not an option.

EricVA: Is the characterization of Tanaka being more injury-prone a fair one? I hear this a lot, but it’s been years and he hasn’t had an issue.
Keith Law: He’s not injury-prone. He has a known issue, but he’s pitched with it for years.

RSO: What’s your take on Jordan Montgomery going forward? What is his upside?
Keith Law: This is it, or perhaps less. He already did more than I expected given his stuff, but was worse in the second half as teams saw him more.

James: Bo Bichette, smoke and mirrors or the real deal?
Keith Law: He was on my midseason top 50 prospects update.

Hinkie: Cesar Hernandez for Tyler Skaggs and Brandon Marsh. Who says “no” ?
Keith Law: Angels would say no, with obscenities.

Tom: While watching Granderson strike out twice in the same at bat, I couldn’t help but notice that if he had just bunted against the shift, he could have downed an Old Style before trotting to first base. Why don’t more players take advantage of this?
Keith Law: Pride? Discomfort? Lack of experience bunting? I don’t know, since it’s an easy hit if it’s executed right, and you don’t have to execute it every time for it to be a net positive for the team.

Patty O’Furniture: Will the Braves lose draft picks in addition to IFA fines (and possible, but less likely, loss of prospects)?
Keith Law: It’s possible but unknown. From reading some of the media coverage around it, there’s a lot of covering of asses going on right now.

Dennis: Have you read any of Knausgaard’s “My Struggle” books? Any interest if you haven’t?
Keith Law: No interest.

Andy: Is there an org with a bleaker future than the Royals’? Bad contracts, no help coming, Twins rising, Indians dominant, White Sox to emerge.
Keith Law: Their near-term could be ugly, but if they stockpile draft picks from the impending FA losses – and then draft well – they could get back on track pretty quickly.

Dennis: Have you read Proust? If so, would you recommend?
Keith Law: I read Swann’s Way and the first part of book two. It’s a grind. The man couldn’t complete a sentence to save his life. It’s pathological.

Andrew: I’m growing increasingly frustrated with my psychiatrist because I feel he feels I’m too stable which is a good thing but deep down, I struggle to finish my own sentences and I’m still depressed. I suffer from bipolar disorder and I’ve brought up things like Wellbutrin/Adderall and he tells me that he feels the medication I”m on is ok and there’s no need to switch out of fear that I may end up back at the hospital with a manic episode. This guy’s such a nice man but Is it best I find a new psychiatrist? Man that’ll be one tough conversation.
Keith Law: If you’re not getting the results you want, then you should find a new doctor. There are so many medication options, individually and in combination, and the results seem to be so personal that I think it’s foolish to advise a patient to just accept the status quo even when he’s not satisfied with it. Good luck.

Carl: The O’s tossed out the idea of putting Hunter Harvey in the ML bullpen in 2018. Am I right in thinking that’s nuts?
Keith Law: Bonkers.

Dennis: If Justin Upton opts out, should the Angels try to bring him back? Would a 5 year, $110 million deal be reasonable or potentially another Hamiltonian disaster?
Keith Law: I think he’s in line for a big deal like that if he opts out; Hamilton was such an exception AND was seen as a bad deal at the time, whereas Upton lacks his off-field or physical problems.

Jason: If expansion happened (big if, I know), would the introduction of 25 or additional bullpen slots and diffusion of talent reduce the number of strikeouts, or are there more guys available who can throw hard and get Ks in short stints?
Keith Law: I think we’d see the shortage of starters exacerbated, at least in the short term. If MLB ever expands, which I do believe will happen eventually (just not imminently), I would hope it would come along with increased investment by the league in developing talent outside of the U.S.

Sven: Do you give any credence to the Hillary/Russia/Uranium story that appears to be gaining legitimacy? If it actually happened, she and everyone who knew about the deals being cut should all be in jail, or worse.
Keith Law: Please take your fake-news bullshit back to Stormfront. Thanks.

Eric: Keith did you ever listen to any Tragically Hip stuff, either during your time with the Jays or otherwise? We’re hurting up here.
Keith Law: I did, but it wasn’t my cup of tea.

Josef: Any reason why a pro pitcher can’t throw a strike on 3-0 when they know the hitter is taking and they throw a fastball? I’d think that location wouldn’t be that hard.
Keith Law: Two things. One, you don’t want to throw a perfect, down-the-middle strike 100% of the time on 3-0, because the batter might swing. Two, pitching is hard.

Chris: Who do you see being the more impact starter for the Tigers, Burrows or Faedo?
Keith Law: Burrows is much more likely to be a starter; I think the odds on Faedo are more likely that he’s a reliever.

TJ: Do you buy this idea that the Yankees are going to sell low on Betances this offseason? They don’t need the money so it doesn’t make sense. Addition by subtraction makes no sense either as they are still rolling right now even with him sour
Keith Law: I don’t think it makes sense, not given his struggles of late and low salary. He’s superfluous to that loaded bullpen, but they’d be selling for maybe 85 cents on the dollar.

Marcus Wilson: When will I get some recognition?
Keith Law: Define recognition. You had a great season, but it was your fourth year in pro ball.

Alex: Have you heard anything from Braves instructs? Eric Longenhagen was saying the big names have disappointed and I could only assume that means Maitan.
Keith Law: I did, and of course I spent a lot of time with Eric last week too. I saw some video of Maitan (did I say this last week?) and his swing was ugly, esp from the L side.

Ken: Would this hypothetical MLB expansion be the nightmare it seems to be on paper?
Keith Law: I think so, especially if, as the unsourced speculation says, they expand to two cities that will likely end up revenue-sharing recipients in the long term. It makes no sense to move to small markets. If you believe Montreal will support a team with a different stadium, which I think is unclear, then that is the largest market in US/Canada without a team. I have argued for a while that Austin and San Antonio would be one market for MLB purposes (they are two MSAs, and two markets in radio’s definition), which would encompass nearly 4.5 million people currently served only by triple-A teams.

Eric Rodriguez: What is the ceiling of Heliot Ramos?
Keith Law: Above-average everyday RF.

Erwin: Edmonton is 900 miles south of Yellowknife! And has a great ball park and had a terrific run in PCL for 24 years.
Keith Law: It’s really far from other PCL teams, and the weather isn’t great for baseball.

Worldwide Leader: Any changes on the horizon for you professionally? Seems like you’re one of the few ESPN Insiders still publishing…
Keith Law: Insider decisions are made above my paygrade. I’m still under contract for a while.

Drew: Any thoughts on the Nationals’ complete lack of post-season success? Bad luck? Poor managing? All of the above?
Keith Law: Bad luck more than anything. Dusty didn’t help this year, what with batting a sub-replacement level player 2nd in the lineup, but I can’t pin the loss on him.

Elton: Did you ever read “The Magicians” trilogy? I have been enjoying it immensely as a send-up of Potter/Narnia but also as a really enjoyable fantasy story in its own right.
Keith Law: Yep, loved it, reviews here on the site (books one, two, and three).

TJ: Fair to assume that the Marlins will be filled with known Jeter loyalists like Posada and Pettite in key roles?
Keith Law: Doesn’t it seem that way? It’s not as if he did an exhaustive search before hiring Denbo.

Colin : If a player is diagnosed with ADHD and is prescribed adderall are they allowed to take it or will they get suspended for banned substances.
Keith Law: They can apply for a TUE (Therapeutic Use Exemption). Something like 1 in 7 MLB players has a TUE for an ADHD drug, which means that more than 10% of the league is using speed, legally.

JR: Half way through book 12 of A Dance to the Music of Time and it’s been an enjoyable journey. Did you read all 12 books straight through or break it up by reading other books in between? I had to break it up to make the length not feel so overwhelming.
Keith Law: I broke it up, reading about one a month.

Justin Y: Super impressed by Albies down the stretch. Does he have 20 hr a season power in his prime?
Keith Law: With this ball, absolutely. With a regular ball, I might have said 15.

Terry: Have you seen the story about the Long Beach restaurant serving reheated Popeyes?
Keith Law: No, but that is fantastic.

Ozzie: Anything new on the situation in Atlanta? Do you think they lose players (Maitan) or receive significant penalties?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything I think I could print. There is a lot of unsourced speculation out there, including claims of criminal activity (which I believe team execs denied when they forced Coppolella and Blakely out), and I’m inclined to doubt everything until MLB weighs in.

Ed: Your liberal social stance sucks
Keith Law: Yes, I’m truly a terrible person for believing in science and supporting equal rights for everyone.

yo knows: Is there enough of a track record for the type of injury Urias had to have an idea of whether he’s going to be back where he was?
Keith Law: The limited number of players who’ve had that surgery should make you very pessimistic. He may be done. In fact, I think it’s at least even money that he is. And that, Ed, is something that actually sucks.

Moltar: There was a Fangraphs Community article recently that said a pitch at the corners was %25 more likely to be called a strike in a 3-0 count than an 0-2 count. That’s infuriating! Pace of play is a huge issue, why are we needlessly extending at bats? Robot umpires now!
Keith Law: That was in the book Scorecasting, published maybe five years ago. And yes, it’s ridiculous.

Blue Jay Way: Ryan Borucki good enough to make Toronto rotation next year? Top 100 consideration?
Keith Law: He is a prospect, but I don’t think he’s ready and he’s not a top 100 guy now.

Gene Mullett: Cleveland has drafted a lot better over the past few seasons, but the results they’ve had in trades (Santana, Kluber, Carrasco, & Bauer for example) are pretty remarkable. Is there an org that you think excels in asset management?
Keith Law: I think the Astros have done a remarkable job both in the draft and in finding low-level talent in trades, although the scout responsible for several of those finds (including Martes) just left for the Diamondbacks.

Luke: Best Dominion expansion outside of Intrigue?
Keith Law: Seaside really changes the game for the better, IMO.

Dischord40: Hi Keith, Are you planning on playing Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 and what is your opinion of legacy games in general?
Keith Law: My daughter and I are still on April of season one. It’s just hard for me, since I have to play so many new games to review, to play one game 12+ times, but the concept is great – really, anything that gets more people into the hobby is fine with me.

Matt: Keith, playing devil’s advocate here, I know you’ve advocated the Yankees trading Didi away to make room for Torres, but wouldn’t that be insanely risky for a contender to do? Didi’s not a star, but he’s a 3-4 win SS, and as good as Torres might look, he’s played just 55 games above High A. It seems like, at best, there’s a decent chance he never becomes the player Didi is right now, and that move would certainly make the Yankees worse-off in the short run (depending on the return for Didi, I guess).
Keith Law: I disagree that “there’s a decent chance he never becomes” a 3-4 WAR player. Very few shortstop prospects his age with his track record and favorable scouting reports have whiffed entirely like that. How often has the industry completely missed on a player who was a top prospect at 15 and then performed right out of the chute?

Moltar: Re: expansion, I have always been confused at how Atlanta is the only team in the South (excluding Florida). North Carolina, New Orleans and Tennessee support other big-4 franchises, yet never seem to be considered for Major League expansion.
Keith Law: Other sports don’t require the attendance or local population (for TV revenues) MLB does. I believe New Orleans’ MSA would be the smallest in MLB. Nashville’s would be in the bottom five.

Jim: And again, why are so many high on the Braves when their 2016 J2 class has underwhelmed and they have no other bats aside from Acuna and Pache.
Keith Law: Answered last week. They have a tremendous amount of pitching, and there are other J2 guys from 2016 beyond Maitan who have promise.

Bruce: Jorge Alfaro had some success in limited playing time this season though his walk rate continues to be horrendous. What are your expectations for him going forward offensively and defensively?
Keith Law: Can’t forecast him ever posting acceptable OBPs given his allergy to walks. He can really throw, he has 80 raw power, and I think he can put the bat on the ball enough to be a regular. The one deficit he can improve upon is his receiving – that can improve with work, and he has to commit to that to be their everyday guy next year.

Xandyfixit?: MrKeithLaw, what’s the future for Bogaerts? In the first half, before injuries, he seemed to be focusing on contact and not power. That’s great if he’s getting on base a substantial clip, but it wasn’t happening. Then the hits to the hands/injuries derailed everything and he seemed lost. Should he just sell out for power (as if that’s easy to do)?
Keith Law: Nice pull there. I think there’s more than average power there if he’s healthy, but couldn’t make hard enough contact once the hand injuries came. I’m still all in, and I wouldn’t advise him to change his approach at all.

Andrew: Was Keon Barnum much of a prospect coming out of high school?
Keith Law: I did not think so.

Chris: Did you see Calgary re-elected their mayor after the NHL essentially tried to interfere to get someone that would give more public money to the Flames? This is a small victory against giving public money to make rich people richer.
Keith Law: Let’s hope the people of Columbus, Ohio, do the same thing as their soccer team tries to extort money from the town.

Chris: Your liberal social stance doesn’t suck. Politics should be about arguing what to do with taxes…not fighting over equality and equity for all.
Keith Law: Agreed. And I don’t think my views on taxation would be characterized as “liberal.” (Probably not truly conservative either.)

Biscuit: Where are we at with Isan Diaz? Is the swing and miss too much to overcome, or does he end up having a few big power years in the majors?
Keith Law: Hamate injury this year. Check back in after a few months of 2018.

Marshall MN: What are your thoughts on Akil Baddoo as a prospect for the Twins, he broke out big time this year but its was low level A ball and its hard to know if those numbers will translate to anything.
Keith Law: Cautiously optimistic. Did get some very good reports on him this summer too.

Biscuit: Recently read Lonesome Dove. Loved every minute of it, and (unexpectedly) found myself laughing out loud at some of the verbal exchanges between McRea and Call. Having not seen the TV Series (which everyone seems to agree is legendary), I of course was excited to see this excellent book brought to life. Watched the first two episodes and….it’s garbage? I mean, books are generally better than movies but- man these two are not even close. No real question here, but thanks for yet another great book recommendation.
Keith Law: I never bothered with the series, given its length and age, but I’m glad to hear I made the right call.

Tex: What happens to the league when the tv bubble inevitably bursts?
Keith Law: I think MLB is already repositioning itself to sell more directly to consumers – which, by the way, could help smooth out revenue gaps between teams.

Dennis: Do you underline or write margin notes when you read fiction?
Keith Law: No, that’s heresy. But I’ll highlight on the Kindle when I read there.

Greyson: Is there any evidence of pitchers newer to pitching having a lower injury risk because they have more “tread on the tires?” When I hear that I always think of Hunter Harvey.
Keith Law: No, I think conversion guys get hurt at at least the same rate if not higher.

Science is Faith in NASA: Did you know that there are 0 pictures of earth? Even NASA’s Robert Simmon says that everything is photoshopped. Is that because the earth is geocentric and the sun and moon rotate around the earth like hands on a clock? Why does NASA need green screens and VR for live broadcasts?
Keith Law: I assume this is a joke, but there are pictures of earth (the last full photo of earth from above low orbit was taken in 1972) and Simmon (the “Blue Marble” image guy) said no such thing.

Matt: Apparently a school in Mississippi is changing it’s name from Jefferson Davis to Obama. Oh the racists are gonna be mad!
Keith Law: My wife and I enjoyed envisioning that reaction.

Andrew: Man, I know it’s early but the Brewers appear to have had a monster 2017 draft! Thoughts?
Keith Law: I think Ray Montgomery has drafted very well for years, going back to his time with Arizona, but I don’t think their 2017 class is a “monster.” They did well, and if Hiura never has to have surgery (as many teams believed predraft that he would) then so much the better.

Corey: Could Michael Chavis do a Devers and be ready for some MLB at-bats late next season ?
Keith Law: Could be ready, but not over Devers.

jp: Favorite Carcassone expansion/edition?
Keith Law: Traders and Builders is still the best, IMO. I haven’t played some of the latest ones – I feel like every game reaches a saturation point with expansions after maybe three or four.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks as always for all of the questions and for reading. Free agent rankings will be my next big Insider project, appearing whenever the World Series ends. I’ll be back some time next week for another chat.

Our Souls at Night.

The new film Our Souls at Night, now available on Netflix, reunites Robert Redford and Jane Fonda for the first time since 1979’s The Electric Horseman in an adaptation of Kent Haruf’s final novel, published shortly after his death in 2015. It’s a slow, sentimental story of two neighbors, both widowed, who end up in an unlikely romance that brings each of them out of their long, dark nights of mourning while exposing the past wounds that haunt them both … but really, it’s about watching Redford and Fonda remind everyone why they were iconic actors of their generation.

Addie (Fonda) knocks on Louis’s (Redford) door one evening with a proposal: That he come to her place some night to sleep with her, literally, rather than in the Biblical sense. They’re both alone, she says, and she’s finding the nights particularly troublesome. It’s a cute conceit, but of course, the more they spend time together, the more they both open up, and we learn that each has a major, life-altering event in the past that remains unresolved – a death for one, an affair for the other – only to have their pasts sneak up on them as their romance blossoms. When Addie’s son asks her to watch her grandson for an indefinite period, the boy bonds with Louis, Louis himself opens up further to Addie, and Addie’s own mistakes come full circle and threaten to derail their newfound happiness.

The story is bookended by two less-than-credible events – Addie’s proposition to Louis that sets the story in motion, and her decision near the very end of the film that at least temporarily splits them up. The first is a necessary plot device, and it’s at least played out well by Fonda (nervous, but determined) and Redford (reticent and befuddled). The second is a bit harder to accept, because the plot gives Addie a false choice – she could have both, and for reasons that aren’t fully justified in the script, chooses to sacrifice her relationship with Louis. That leads to a very cute and somewhat more credible conclusion, but I could never quite buy into how we got there. It is primarily to the credit of the two actors and the familiar, comfortable chemistry between them that any part of this story plays out seriously, and that the audience can be absorbed in the minutiae of their relationship – the small-town gossip, the first-date hesitancy, the reactions of their adult children. (Judy Greer appears in one scene as Louis’s daughter, playing the character type at which she excels – off-kilter, goofy, effusive, and seeming younger than her actual age.)

The details are what really sell Our Souls at Night, as the plot itself is limited; the script just sort of throws these two characters together and sees what will happen. It avoids the worst cliches, like a forced conflict between the two where they fight and “break up,” and instead gives us two kind but hurting people who choose to be kind to each other. The deaths of secondary characters underline the idea that this is a last shot at happiness for Addie and Louis, rather than saddle the two of them with morbid dialogue, which further allows the script to focus on the organic evolution of the two characters’ relationship and their discussions, largely prompted by Addie, of the old wounds they each suffered that never fully healed.

Our Souls at Night played briefly in a few theaters in September, which should make it eligible for awards, which may really matter for the two lead actors, both of whom are previous winners and, at 79 (Fonda, who’ll turn 80 in December) and 81 (Redford) may not have many more leading roles in their careers. Fonda has won Best Actress twice, with five other nominations, and has three more Golden Globe wins for the same. Redford, to my surprise, has never won a Best Actor Oscar, earning just one nomination in the category (The Sting), with a win for Best Director (Ordinary People) his only regular Oscar, along with a Lifetime Achievement Award in 2002. The Best Actor category is so competitive that I wouldn’t predict a nod for Redford here, even given the natural boost he’ll get from his reputation and age, but Fonda, who carries a little more weight with her role in this movie, has a fair shot at some nominations for playing Addie. It’s more than a mere nostalgia play, though; Our Souls at Night showcases two great actors in a movie unadorned by anything but dialogue and some beautiful panoramas of the Colorado landscape, with performances that elevate the simplistic plot into something memorable.