→ August 1, 2018
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Music update, July 2018.

July seemed like a weaker month for new music than we’ve had in a while, but it’s possible that after my vacation and around some trips I missed some good new releases, too. If you can’t see the widget below, you can access the Spotify playlist here.

TVAM — These Are Not Your Memories. Joe Oxley, the producer/musician who records as TVAM, is new to me, although he’s released a few singles going back to 2015. This track, from his forthcoming debut album Psychic Data, is shoegazey and atmospheric, but with a clear, defined hook, and some bravado to it that’s generally absent in shoegaze music and its spiritual descendants.

Spirit Animal — The Truth. Another artist with whom I was unfamiliar before this song, Spirit Animal, a four-piece act from Brooklyn, produce guitar-driven rock that calls back to classic rock but with hints of funk and metal mixed in. This track has a wonderfully dark riff behind the verses, then shifts to a soaring and funk-tinged mode for the chorus.

Slash — Driving Rain (feat. Myles Kennedy & The Conspirators). Slash has been churning out memorable, heavy guitar riffs for thirty years now, but because his style of music hasn’t been cool since the late ’80s, he’s never really gotten the respect of other similarly talented guitarists. He has a clearly defined sound, evident here even through the fairly generic vocals – if you like Slash’s work, you’d probably pick this out (no pun intended) as his doing right away. It’s not “Slither” or Appetite-level work, but it’s more than just a nostalgia trip.

Greta Van Fleet — When The Curtain Falls. GVF get lots of praise for their Led Zeppelin-derived sound, but I’ve found them more akin to Kingdom Come, imitators rather than spiritual descendants, especially with the lead singer’s falsetto sounding too much like Lenny Wolf. (I’ll admit to a strange fondness for Kingdom Come’s one hit single, “Get It On,” though.) This is the best track I’ve heard from GVF so far, powered by a memorable guitar riff.

The Twilight Sad — I/m Not Here [Missing Face]. I could have sworn I included a Twilight Sad song on a playlist a few years ago but can’t find it. This Scottish (as if you couldn’t tell) duo seem to have drunk deeply from the spirit of Joy Division, early Smiths, Editors, and others in the tradition of depressing new wave-inflected music … but with more energy than they’ve shown in previous singles.

Death Cab for Cutie — I Dreamt We Spoke Again. DCFC’s ninth album, Thank You for Today, drops on August 17th; it’s their first album without guitarist Chris Walla since 1997. This is the second single and lead track, not as immediate as “Gold Rush” but very much in line with their peak output from the first decade of the 2000s.

Maisie Peters — Best I’ll Ever Sing. The now 18-year-old singer/songwriter behind last year’s “The Place We Were Made” is back with another track, this one driven by piano rather than guitar, once again showcases her sense of melody and adorable voice.

Interpol — Number 10. That’s now two promising singles ahead of Interpol’s forthcoming album Marauder, due out August 24th.

The Golden Age of TV — Television. TGATV, a five-piece indie-rock act from Leeds, has released three singles so far, this the strongest (and most rock-tinged) to date. There’s an anthemic vibe that feels like it was written to open a concert, with the lights coming on just as Bea Fletcher’s vocals kick in.

Cut Chemist — Work My Mind. Cut Chemist, formerly one of the DJs in the rap collective Jurassic 5, reunites with Chali 2Na here for the best track of CC’s latest album.

The Internet — Roll (Burbank Funk). The Internet, who may win any competition for the least google-able band name on the planet, earned a Grammy nod for their 2015 album Ego Death in the ‘urban contemporary’ category; I’m not sure what that term encompasses or excludes, but this song sounds like a modern twist on P-Funk to me and I’m good with that.

Jungle — Heavy, California. This English soul music collective, who had a hit in 2014 with “Busy Earnin'” and made my May playlist with “Happy Man,” will drop their second album, For Ever, on September 14th. They’ve released two other tracks from the album, “Cherry” and “House in L.A.,” but both are more downtempo and not my speed.

St. Lucia – Walking Away. It seems like St. Lucia’s sound is evolving further, this time in a more positive direction than their disappointing last album (aside from its lead single, “Dancing on Glass”), between this and “A Brighter Love.” The B side to that latter song, “Paradise is Waiting,” isn’t bad either, although the faux-gospel chorus is a little hackneyed for me.

Alkaline Trio — Blackbird. The Chicago punk trio veered off into more alternative territory with some of their early 2000s releases – “Help Me” is probably my favorite song of theirs, off 2008’s Agony & Irony – but they returned to their roots with their 2013 album My Shame Is True. “Blackbird” is more of the same, the lead single from their upcoming album Is This Thing Cursed?, due out on August 31st.

Mudhoney — Paranoid Core. Never change, Mark Arm. Never change.

Horrendous — Soothsayer. This Philly-based quartet is producing by far the most interesting and sophisticated music of any American death metal band going – it’s technically proficient, musically progressive, and apparently the lyrics are pretty smart too, not that I can understand a word they’re screaming. Their 2015 album Anareta was Decibel‘s top LP of that year, and Ecdysis was the same magazine’s #3 album of 2014. Idol is due out on September 28th.

Omnium Gatherum — Gods Go First. Omnium Gatherum are Finnish but hew closely to the Gothenburg school of melodic death metal, with progressive and thrash elements along with strong musicianship. Their eighth album, The Burning Cold, comes out August 31st.

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→ July 31, 2018
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Big Chicken.

Antibiotic resistance doesn’t get a ton of headlines, but it is one of the most critical threats to global health, enough so that the United Nations resolved to address the problem at a summit late in 2016. At the time, they estimated there would be 10 million deaths annually from resistant ‘superbugs’ by the year 2050, which doesn’t include people who would die indirectly from the scourge, such as people who can’t have surgery because the antibiotics that you receive before any operation are no longer effective. In a country where a third of the population rejects the truth of evolution, getting people to understand this issue – itself the product of evolutionary processes among bacteria – has been difficult, and never seems to rise very high on the priority lists for policymakers.

Maryn McKenna’s new book Big Chicken: The Incredible Story of How Antibiotics Created Modern Agriculture and Changed the Way the World Eats, the journalist and Schuster Institute fellow explains how we got here by way of the humble chicken, which took over our plates and menus thanks to the prodigious and reckless use of antibiotics, in turn leading to widespread antibiotic resistance in our food supply and outside of it as well. Chicken became an industrial product because someone realized that pumping birds full of antibiotics as part of their feed would make them grow faster, regardless of whether they had any need for these medications. While the chicken world consolidated and counted its profits, bacteria did what they do – evolved, through mutations and gene transfer, to become resist to one drug after another, spreading through and beyond our food supply, abetted by antibiotic residues that washed into the water supply from overuse.

McKenna builds the book around the narrative of one man who nearly died from salmonellosis, an infection caused by bacteria in the Salmonella genus (there are two species, and either can cause this illness), part of a widespread 2013 outbreak caused by unsanitary conditions at the Foster Farms chicken processing plant. The specific Salmonella strain in this outbreak, known as Heidelberg, was resistant to multiple antibiotics, sickened over 600 people, and resulted in at least 200 hospitalizations, although there were no reported deaths. Within the framework of this patient’s ordeal – he survived, but will have lifelong complications, which is common for people who develop these infections – McKenna walks through the history of the chicken as foodstuff, from its advent as an industrial product through changes to the bird to the very recent movement by major chicken producers and consumers to stop antibiotic use.

The very rise of this form of industrialized animal husbandry was an accident, which is one of the book’s most interesting sections (granted, I love history of science stories); there wasn’t any reason to think pumping healthy birds full of antibiotics would make them grow faster, but it did, to a shocking extent. What is infuriating, if not entirely surprising, is how government agencies responsible for ensuring public health rolled over and played dead for Big Chicken and the antibiotic manufacturers themselves even as scientists began to sound alarms about resistant bacteria in the 1950s. The manufacturers played the Big Tobacco game of demanding more proof, aided and abetted by Congressman Jamie Whitten, a Democrat from Mississippi, who abused his power to protect the two industries from proposed restrictions on antibiotic usage until his retirement in 1994. (Whitten wrote a pro-pesticide screed as a rejoinder to Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring, in case you were unclear on his stance on the matter.) Mckenna parallels this narrative with a walk through the tactics of the bacterial world to outflank our best drugs, most recently with the emergence of bacteria with the mcr-1 gene, conferring resistance to colistin, an antibiotic of ‘last resort’ that has been used for bacteria resistant to all other antibiotics.

Blaming the two industries of chicken and pharma, along with the complicity of useless government agencies (the FDA and the USDA), is easy, but the American consumer is also a major part of the problem here. We eat far more meat than we need to meet our dietary requirements, but we insist on meat being cheap, which encourages us to both eat and waste more of it. We’ve also decided we want lean meat, based on nutritional advice from the Useless Department of Agriculture that turned out to be mostly to entirely wrong, leading to greater demand for breast meat, and in turn for farmers to grow chickens with giant breasts and smaller legs, to the point that the broiler-fryer chickens you might get in an average grocery or warehouse store can’t walk or stand up normally. (I rarely see them in stores, but once did buy a pasture-raised whole chicken; it had less than half the breast meat of even a well-raised conventional bird.) McKenna goes into this in more detail – how the rise of ‘chicken fingers’ and the McNugget exacerbated this trend, how consumers prefer buying chicken parts rather than whole birds – while also pointing out how producers bred birds with these un-natural characteristics to suit the marketplace.

There is hope, at least in this book, on both the antibiotic resistance and the chicken-producing fronts. The UN has, at least, paid lip service to the cause of fighting antibiotic resistance. Several major chicken producers, led by Purdue, have stopped or pledged to stop using antibiotics in full, or to only use them to treat sick birds rather than as growth promoters or for prophylactic purposes. Many large chicken buyers, including Panera, Chipotle, and even McDonald’s, have also pledged to go antibiotic-free, or have done so already. Whole Foods has long been antibiotic-free as well. (One reason I buy organic milk and eggs, even though ‘organic’ itself isn’t that meaningful: It guarantees the cows/birds in question weren’t given antibiotics.) And slowing the use of antibiotics on animals should help in particular if and when researchers discover the next big class of antibiotic compounds. We may have gotten much farther with the drugs we had if we hadn’t given them in such huge quantities to the animals we raised and ate.

McKenna also visits chicken farmers who are operating outside of the main supply chain of industrial birds, raising heirloom varieties in the American heartland or raising certified Label Rouge birds in France, chickens that neither look nor taste like the bland if predictable American hybrids. Educating consumers with the disposable income to buy these birds is a challenge, but one that has plenty of precedent in the market for high-end foods. The bigger conundrum is how to provide enough meat, chicken or otherwise, to feed a world that increasingly demands it and doesn’t want to pay more for it, without the overuse of antibiotics that has led us to the edge of a bottomless pit of resistance.

Next up: Dan Simmons’ The Fall of Hyperion.

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→ July 30, 2018
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The Emperor of All Maladies.

Siddhartha Mukherjee, an Indian-born American oncologist who trained at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Boston, won the Pulitzer Prize for Non-Fiction for his 2010 tome The Emperor of All Maladies: A Biography of Cancer, his first book and an enormous undertaking – an exhaustive attempt to chronicle the history of the disease itself and the ongoing scientific fight to cure it. Interspersed with anecdotes from his own oncology work, including several patients he treated – some who survived the disease, and many who did not – Emperor covers a truly incredible amount of ground, often with more detail than I needed to understand the story, and presents a sobering picture of how endless the efforts to treat and cure cancer will be, given the disease’s nature and ability to defeat our best weapons against it.

Mukherjee goes back to ancient Egypt and Greece to give us the earliest known examples of the disease’s appearance and explain how it got its name – it’s from the Latin word meaning ‘crab,’ and the word carcinoma comes from the Greek word for the same – but the bulk of the history in this book starts in the mid-19th century with the first real identification of a specific cancer, leukemia. The story wends its way through the late part of that century with the advent of radical mastectomies to remove breast cancer, disfiguring surgeries that would remove many muscles beyond the breasts and that were the brainchild of the coke-addicted surgeon William Halsted, who also conceived the modern residency program for new doctors that forces them to operate without sleep. We get the discovery that radiation causes cancer, and the related discovery that it might treat cancer as well, as would certain drugs that we now put under the umbrella of chemotherapy. Mukherjee takes the science thread all the way through what were, at the time, the latest developments in oncology treatment and research, including the ongoing identification of oncogenes (genes that, when switched ‘on,’ can produce cancer), proto-oncogenes (genes that become oncogenes with mutations), and anti-oncogenes (tumor-suppressing genes); and therapies that target specific cancer subtypes based on their genotypes – such as Herceptin, which has proven exceptionally effective against breast and other cancers cancer with the HER2 oncogene.

The science bits – my favorite, of course – are interspersed with much of the story of the American public policy fight over cancer, which led to a so-called “War on Cancer,” the passage of the 1971 National Cancer Act to boost the National Cancer Institute, and many breathless pronouncements that we were mere years away from finding a cure. The narrative lags at several points here – the origin story of the Jimmy Fund’s “Jimmy,” real name Einar Gustafson, is the big exception – although it serves as a reminder of how credulous the world was, including early researchers into oncology, about our ability to ‘beat’ or cure cancer. Cancer is not just one disease; it is many, probably hundreds, of diseases that all share the common characteristic of abnormal cell growth, but that can differ substantially by their origin in the body, and even for a specific source or organ can come in vastly diverse forms that require different, targeted treatments. The above-mentioned Herceptin works on HER2+ cancers, mostly breast cancer but sometimes appearing in gastric or ovarian cancers; it will be ineffective against HER2-negative cancers. Someone with ‘breast cancer’ can have any of several forms of the disease – each of which will respond in totally different ways to treatments. This is good news and bad news; the more we know about specific forms of cancer, the better that scientists can come up with targeted treatments to attack them, but there are also far more forms of cancer than we’d ever realized in the history of our fight against the disease. The single ‘cure for cancer’ is probably a chimera, because cancer is not just one thing, but a common attribute of many diseases, and stopping that attribute – rampant cell division – would kill regular cells too.

The Emperor of All Maladies is kind of a depressing read, between the awful outcomes for some of the patients described, but also because the outlook for the future of the disease is not that great. Yes, the medical world continues to search for and find treatments for specific cancers, some of which are the most effective drugs in the history of oncology, but it’s also clear that if your specific cancer isn’t one of those, the medical response is the same drug cocktail approach that has been the norm for decades – better than it was, and with the benefit of drugs to help combat nausea, but still an ordeal for the patient with modest success rates. And finding Herceptin-like advances for all cancers will take many years and billions of dollars that may not be available without a massive public investment. Dr. Mukerjee has put together a remarkable work of research and insight, written with great feeling for the individual patients fighting their cancers, but I left this book feeling worse about the war on cancer than I ever had before.

Next up: Dan Simmons’ The Fall of Hyperion.

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→ July 28, 2018
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Stick to baseball, 7/28/18.

Trade writeups for Insiders:

• Jeurys Familia to Oakland
• Zach Britton to the Yankees
• J.A. Happ to the Yankees
• The Eovaldi, Andriese, and Oh trades
• Cole Hamels to the Cubs

I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

On the board game front, I reviewed Istanbul: The Dice Game for Paste this week; it’s fun, and quick to learn and play, but not as good as the original Istanbul.

At 1 pm today (Saturday) I’ll be at the Silver Unicorn Bookstore in Acton, Massachusetts, talking Smart Baseball and signing books. I hope to see many of you there – and some more of you at Gen Con in Indianapolis next week as well, where I have a signing scheduled on Friday at noon and am happy to sign books any other time during the con.

I’ve been sending out my free email newsletter a bit more often lately; you can sign up through that link and see archives of past editions.

And now, the links…

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→ July 27, 2018
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Perdido Street Station.

I didn’t love China Miéville’s Hugo Award-winning novel The City & the City, but I was and still am awed by its inventive setting – a city-state that is divided in two, but where the two independent entities overlap and intertwine, like a Baarle-Nassau taken to an extreme not just of geography but of thought. The story didn’t live up to the creative setup, but the mere idea has really stuck with me in the years since I’ve read it.

His imagination is on display in his sprawling novel Perdido Street Station, which goes so much further in the direction of bizarre science fiction, set on an unnamed planet in a city that feels like it’s from somewhere after civilization has fallen and risen a few times, populated by strange and biologically improbable alien races, including humanoid insects who have to speak in sign language. The novel starts out as if there are going to be a pair of mysteries around the two central characters, but most of that is just a red herring for what’s really coming – an invasion of sorts by giant moths that feed on the dreams of sentient creatures, leaving their bodies functioning but their minds useless. The stories that occupied Isaac and Lin, the human and insect couple (yeah … put a pin in that), turn out to be related to the larger plot but get pushed way to the back burner once the moths show up, and Isaac in particular becomes the reluctant hero who leads a motley crew of outcasts to try to stop the infestation before the moths can breed and ultimate wipe out the entire city. (Not mentioned, however, is what the moths would do for sustenance once they ate everyone’s souls.)

If you get the sense that I didn’t buy any of this, well, good job, because while the prose moved along well and Miéville can certainly keep the pace of the plot quick enough when he wants to, to do so, Miéville piles detail upon detail and twist upon twist, to the point where I found my interest in the story waning from sheer plot fatigue. Isaac’s side project, which turns out to be relevant to the moth quest, is to build an engine that can harness “crisis energy,” a fictional but functionally limitless energy source. There’s a lot of handwaving and “I have to make the math work out” sort of writing here, but it ends up feeling like juvenilia: Great science fiction either explains its fictional science in terms that tie it to real science to keep it credible, or it pushes the fictional science under the hood and tells you not to worry about it. Perdido Street Station does neither.

And then there’s the whole alien races thing, not least of which is the utterly creepy human-insect love story, which Miéville really goes well out of his way to explain, both in how it happened and in how they have sex, a scene that definitely had me reaching for the Raid. Alien species are hardly novel in the world of science fiction, and they’re often quite ridiculous (David Brin, please step to the front). Miéville here seems to have deliberately created extra-weird species, just for the sake of weirdness. There isn’t any compelling reason here to have an intelligent, evolved, humanoid-insect species in the book. It just makes it all weirder and kept puncturing my suspension of disbelief.

One thing Miéville does get right here, however, is make the stakes high. Central characters are injured and killed. There are certainly points where it seems like the moths might eke out a partial if not total victory. By the end of the book, even though the good guys sort of win, the cost has been very high. More writers operating in this space need to work like that – if I know everyone is going to survive to the end of the book (or movie or TV series), then every crisis or potential tragedy you show me feels forced.

I stuck with this through all 700-plus pages in some vain hope of a big payoff to the main plot, but Miéville didn’t quite deliver that either. There were some parts of the heroes’ plan that were extremely clever, and some that didn’t translate well to the page – to the point where I had a hard time picturing any of what was going on. (The moths, by the way, exist in multiple dimensions, as do some other creatures here, making them exceptionally hard to kill.) And for as much as Miéville seems to want the city itself and Perdido Street Station to sit at the heart of the story, I never got much of a picture of the setting, either. The whole book just ended up feeling like a dumping ground for the products of the author’s prodigious imagination, but there just wasn’t enough meat to the story to make it work.

Next up: Almost through Maryn McKenna’s Big Chicken: The Incredible Story of How Antibiotics Created Modern Agriculture and Changed the Way the World Eats

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→ July 26, 2018
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Klawchat 7/26/18.

My Insider post on the Eovaldi, Andriese, and Oh trades is now up. Also, I have a new board game review up at Paste, covering Istanbul the Dice Game, which strips down the original Istanbul (an amazing game from 2014) to something quicker, simpler, but also more driven by chance.

Keith Law: You left all the lights on, but there’s nobody home. Klawchat.

Nick L: Is this peak Javy Baez? It almost feels like even a little more discipline moves him dangerously close to MVP discussions.
Keith Law: I think this is peak Baez; it’s unlikely (albeit not impossible … just highly improbable) that he finds plate discipline now.

Chris: Hi Keith. Looking forward to your book signing this weekend in MA. What do you think about how the Red Sox made out in the Eovaldi for Beeks trade? Thanks.
Keith Law: That post just went up (Insider).

Frank: The Jays traded a reliever for what MLB Pipeline says is the Rockies 13th & 24th best prospects. Would those qualify as lottery prospects, or is the Rockies system good enough that those are a little better than that? Side question: what would you expect the Jays to get for Happ?
Keith Law: See the link I just posted.

Arnold: Actual SI FB post earlier this week: “Mets Prospect Tim Tebow out for season.” Prospect??? Maybe fate favors the Mets since this means Tebow won’t be blocking any actual prospects for the rest of the season, but the Mets are gonna force this charade on us next season, aren’t they?
Keith Law: There are many people, even within this industry, who treat “prospect” and “minor leaguer” as synonyms. They are not.

Eddie: Wander Franco has looked great so far, can you think of another J2 signee that you rated so highly in his 1st season?
Keith Law: Yes, several, including Sano & Vlad Jr.

Dana: Do you fault Gary Sanchez for not hustling considering he reaggravated his injury in the first inning? I feel like he’s getting unfairly crushed here.
Keith Law: I wish Latino there was Latino some sort of Latino reason why Latino everyone is so Latino quick to criticize Latino certain players for not Latino hustling.

Mark: It seems the Rays take high floor players in trades, and the Padres have a rule 5 roster problem approaching, so could this explain the Padres and Archer rumor? The Rays might be willing to take some of the players the Padres aren’t going to be able to protect in addition to some premium talent. They made a similar deal in the past (can’t remember the details) where Boxberger, Andriese, and Forsythe were the return who have been nice players, but at the time were seen as high floor useful guys. Thanks!
Keith Law: Is the Padres’ rule 5 apocalypse that close? I think they’re a year-plus away from that. I don’t hate this idea like the Hosmer (-0.7 fWAR … but TEH LEADERSHIP) deal, but it’s still not really ideal for the Padres unless they’re somehow doing this without trading any of their top 10 prospects.

Ike: If you had your choice for a franchise player, who would you take between Acuna, Soto or Vlad jr?
Keith Law: Acuna. Or Tatis Jr.

Rich: Any advice for a first-time author? I am about to start writing after years of research. What were some of your biggest stumbling blocks with SB? Also, I hope to make it this Saturday in Acton at the Silver Unicorn!
Keith Law: I wrote that all pretty quickly, so I’m not sure I’d have stumbling blocks to offer. Just carve out dedicated time to write each day, because it’s easy to procrastinate on a project like that with long deadlines.

addoeh: To continue the discussion from the last Klawchat, is Creed worse than Nickelback and would positive comments about either “music” group cause a prospect to fall due to “dumb social media comments”?
Keith Law: My warning to all players at any level: If your walkup music is by Post Malone, I don’t care how good you are, I am slapping a fucking NP label on you and never looking back.

Joe: Keith, are there any good reasons why Ced Mullins and Dj Stewart are still in AAA given the Orioles’ struggles?
Keith Law: Is there a burning reason why either should be up? These aren’t elite prospects.

Joe: Keith, it seems like the Orioles hung on to Britton too long like they did with Machado. Would you have traded him after his huge season in 2016 even though the Orioles had just made the playoffs? His value was never higher and Chapman and Miller were just traded for huge hauls.
Keith Law: I would have, and I think I said so at the time, but it’s also a bit unfair to criticize them on Britton because he got hurt during the offseason and scotched any chance they could trade him then.

Aaron C.: What do you do if you’re Billy Beane/David Forst? (1) Hope the A’s offense continues to make Cahill/B. Anderson/E. Jackson look serviceable? (2) Trade for a back-end starter? (3) Trade some top-tier prospect(s) for a front-end starter? Thanks!
Keith Law: More like (2). Definitely not (3).

Bob: I know Isaac Paredes isn’t likely a SS, but he hit well in the FSL at 19 and Det must think highly of him to promote him to AA as a teenager. How good can he be as a 2B or 3B?
Keith Law: Above-average regular at 2b or 3b, definitely not a shortstop. Little bit of stat-scouting going on around him – good prospect, not an elite one.

Bob: After a rough start to the year in AA, Brent Rooker has been dominant for nearly 2 months. What’s his upside?
Keith Law: Solid-average regular.
Keith Law: I guess maybe a 55, above-average regular. Probably 1b. He is a grade 80 tweeter though.

Bob: Hans Crouse has had a couple recent 7 IP/double digit K starts. Does he have front of the rotation upside or more a reliever for you?
Keith Law: Delivery is reliever. Mentality is probably reliever too. Stuff would let him start.

mike sixel: Some Twins’ fans I interact with think the team should sign Escobar to a QO if they can’t extend him. Thoughts on 18MM for Eduardo Escobar? Admittedly, they have very little payroll committed for next year….but, 18MM?
Keith Law: Hardest of passes.

Bob: Kevin Kramer has followed up his AA breakout with a very similar AAA season. Can he be an above average regular?
Keith Law: In my opinion, no.

PhillyJake: In your write up of Mitch Keller, you wrote “If he finds that third pitch — better feel for the changeup, maybe even a splitter — he has No. 1 starter upside.” On June 28th, the day after Keller was promoted to Indy (AAA), Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects wrote about how his improvement in his secondary pitches lead to the promotion. I realize that ranking him 24th overall means you don’t hate him (Or the Pirates!), but I’m wondering when you’ll get a chance to see him again to see with your own eyes?
Keith Law: I have seen him – I just saw him – and what I wrote is completely accurate.

Bob: Have you had a chance to see Daniel Johnson in Harrisburg? He has not repeated his A ball power numbers, but his overall game looks solid. Can he be a starter or more a 4th OF?
Keith Law: Extra OF for me, some small chance of a regular.

MIKEPCFL: Just a quick thank you for sharing about the loss of your family cat and how your daughter handled it. It was very touching. Never just stick to baseball.
Keith Law: You’re welcome – thank you, all of you, for reading and reaching out after I sent that newsletter.

Harold: Was the White Sox’ 2017 draft as good as it appears with Sheets, Gonzalez, Hentzman, Tyler Johnson, Battenfield, etc. all doing well?
Keith Law: I just wrote up Sheets and Gonzalez … Sheets in particular looks bad, and bear in mind they took a lot of college guys who *should* do well in the low minors. Shame about Berger, though – he seemed like the kind of guy who could finish his first year in AA or higher.

Moe Mentum: Favorite band or musician that your wife was into before you were?
Keith Law: We have wildly different tastes in music. There isn’t much overlap other than bands we both liked from the ’80s.

CD: Ramon Laureano has had a nice bounce back season in AAA. Do you think he can defend well enough to be an average-ish regular in CF?
Keith Law: Astros tried to alter his swing – launch angle! – and it wrecked his 2017. I think definite fourth OF who can play all three spots, maybe 10-15% chance of a regular. I particularly like him as a player, just the way he plays, not the biggest tools but enough athleticism and a really good idea of what he’s doing.

C-Note: Who is the 2nd best player in baseball?
Keith Law: Trout is 1 and Mookie is 2. You can start your arguments at 3.

Seath: Do you have any other plans while in MA? Going to the RedSox-Twins series? I would have loved to go to your book event.
Keith Law: Nope, having dinner with my best friend from grade school and then driving home.

Concerned citizen: Why don’t other countries on par with the U.S. have the same amount of vaccines that are required?
Keith Law: Ask them. The science on this is quite clear.

SeanE: Will Craig has put up solid power numbers but with a corresponding drop in BA and OBP. Can he reach a happy medium and become a productive MLB 1b?
Keith Law: Don’t think so – more like a below-average regular/bench piece.

Jerry: Is Josh James a legit prospect. Seems to have really taken a step forward. Is he a high strikeout mid rotation guy?
Keith Law: Huge arm, has touched 99, bad delivery, command way behind control. Lot of relief risk. I have not seen him myself.

Neal Huntington: Do I put together a package of prospects to add a starting pitcher for the stretch run or was the recent streak just smoke and mirrors?
Keith Law: I would not advocate buying; there are nine other teams competing for the same playoff spots, and I don’t think their true talent level is better than their two divisional rivals.

Kevin: What kind of return could Carlos Rodon catch for the White Sox? Since there are not too many young, controllable SP on the market and they are still a few years away from competing, should the Sox look to maximize his value?
Keith Law: I don’t think the value would be that great for a guy who is less than a year off significant shoulder surgery and who hasn’t had a full season of sustained production.

SeanE: Any chance that Oniel Cruz can stick at SS or is his future at 3b? Is he a candidate for your top 100 next year?
Keith Law: No chance of SS. I’m not sure he can stay on the dirt – dude is like a skyscraper out there.

Dave: Do you have any recs for a good vegetarian cookbook?
Keith Law: Nothing I absolutely love; the best cookbook I have for vegetables is Nigel Slater’s Tender, which is veg-focused but not truly vegetarian. I own one of Isa Chandra Moskowitz’s books (Isa Does It!), which is vegan, but most of the recipes don’t work without significant modifications – I don’t think anyone tested them.

Jack: Does Haseley adding a leg kick, and subsequent success(SSS ik) potentially increase his value at the deadline?
Keith Law: No, pure SSS. Swing has been awful.

David: Have you ever played much chess?
Keith Law: Yes but I’m not very good at it.

Jeremy: I just wanted to reach out and say that I appreciate your willingness to discuss things outside baseball. While I may often disagree with your positions on some matters, I enjoy being able to read other opinions and points of view and discuss them in a civilized manner.
Keith Law: Thank you. That is also why I moderate the comment sections here so strictly – I would rather have a smaller but more civil discussion by keeping anyone seeking to comment in bad faith out.

Harry: Which Under Armour players impressed you the most? Did you write this event up?
Keith Law: There was zero chance I was taking a trip when my daughter needed me home like that.

Trevor: Thoughts on Forrest Whitley being rewarded with an invite to the Futures Game after serving a 50-game suspension?
Keith Law: Not great, Bob, but he ended up getting hurt anyway. MLB was in a tight spot – he’s the best RHP prospect in baseball, and not inviting him would have been weird, too.

Joe: Was there a time in your early days of scouting when you would look past flaws in order to defend guys you essentially “discovered?”
Keith Law: I’ve never discovered anyone. I go see players scouts or execs have identified for me as players to see.

Gerry : Beyond Rhys Hoskins’ obvious offensive talent, when scouting a player, do scouts really take into account leadership qualities as a tipping point for player A over player B, who be more high risk? Thanks KLaw
Keith Law: Not really. I think people tend to retcon that stuff on to a guy after he turns out to be good (or just gets paid a lot).

GEO: My condolences on your loss of Bailey; I once had a black cat of the same name. It’s a difficult decision to have to make. May I ask how you knew he was ill in the first place? They seldom tell you when they are in pain. Or was it uncovered in a regular vet exam?
Keith Law: That very afternoon, he was howling like he’d never done before, and that was the first sign. If you read my latest newsletter (tinyletter.com/keithlaw) I tell the whole story. It was shocking because he seemed fine just days before.

Joshua: I know it was a small, pretty inconsequential trade, but is there anything to be excited about with Jacob Condra-Bogan in the Goodwin trade? Thanks.
Keith Law: No. There were some strange claims that he was throwing up to 99, but he’s not. He’s a great story but I have 90-94 from scouts.

Doug: I think Buster might need to take a breath. What’s the problem with Preller checking in on controllable pitchers?
Keith Law: I agreed with Buster’s point – Archer’s window doesn’t coincide that well with when the Padres’ young core should be in the majors and producing.

Nate: You’ve mentioned the Cards Hudson having the look of a reliever. Is the basis stuff, mechanics, makeup, other?
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: I don’t know about his makeup and can’t think of times that pushed a guy to relief.

xxx(yyy): Any specific recommendations for a Game Night with other couples (so not OVERLY difficult to understand rules/games)?
Keith Law: Something like Coup, Love Letter, One Night Werewolf (if you have 5+ people), Crossfire … social deduction games that move fast, don’t have a lot of rules, work well with alcohol.

xxx(yyy): Who ends up the better MLBer of the Rangers L Tavares or J.P. Martinez?
Keith Law: Taveras for me. He was on my top 50; Martinez wasn’t and wasn’t a consideration.

JB: CJ Chatham seems to have bounces back after the injury. Reason to be optimistic or is he old for high-A? Thanks!
Keith Law: Saw him. Like the glove/hands a lot. Bat is light.

Mark Antoch: Over/Under HR’s if you give Tyler O’Neill if the Cards gave him 550 AB’s in the majors next year? He’s a beast
Keith Law: 28 homers and a sub-.300 OBP.

Bryan: I always forget to show up at chat times, so I just wanted to say thanks for always being helpful and answering random questions on Twitter. But since I’m supposed to ask a question here — were you playing Pandemic Legacy? How is it going/did it go? (we’re about to embark on Season 2, and I’m already stressed out about it!)
Keith Law: We played it 5 times, I think, and liked it, but we’re often bringing other games to the table. Charterstone also sort of leapfrogged it in our legacy game queue.

Nate: Better OF prospect, Pache or Waters?
Keith Law: One was on my top 50…

Steve Culver: While they are all important, is there a particular race you are rooting for in the Nov elections? Really need to flip the house.
Keith Law: Not especially. They’re all important, and I just want to see more pro-science people in government at all levels.

Brian: What has happended in the last decade or so that has helped improve these 19-21 year olds succeed so early in MLB? Before trout and Harper, i dont recall seeing so many young players contribute so early at the major league level (excluding JR and Andrew Jones).
Keith Law: They’re a lot more physically developed now at 19-20 than I remember them being ten years ago, but I don’t know if the data on their performances bears out the impression we both have that they’re succeeding sooner.

Pete: Is Cornelius Randolph still prospect-worthy? 21yrs old at AA. Shows flashes
Keith Law: Not really. young but showing nothing, and he’s a 4 in LF.

Joshua: Do upcoming “mid-tier” free agents like Gio Gonzalez and Daniel Murphy hope they get traded so that they don’t have compensation attached to them in the offseason? Thanks, Keith.
Keith Law: Probably – it seems to hit them worse than it does top-tier guys, as you’d expect.

Mundo: What are your thoughts on Jonathan Loaisiga?
Keith Law: Love him if healthy, but he hasn’t stayed healthy. Mid-rotation upside, reliever downside.

Mark Antoch: Are you watching any HBO shows? Succession or Sharp Objects?
Keith Law: I finished S1 of the Leftovers. No interest in Succession.

addoeh: Favorite music video from the 80’s?
Keith Law: It’s tough to beat “Thriller,” although counting the whole 20 minutes is probably cheating.

Jesse B: Have you seen or heard anything about Nate Lowe to think the breakout is for real?
Keith Law: Saw him in DC. Slugger without defensive value. He’s something, not a star.

Ridley Kemp: Luis Rengifo is rocketing through the Angels’ system this year with some silly looking numbers (.316/.420/.484) with more walks than strikeouts. Have you had a chance to see him, or have you heard anything about him? He was totally off my radar coming in to this year.
Keith Law: I have heard solid utility type. Not a shortstop, maybe a 2b-of type who can fill in at short (not that he’ll do that with Andrelton there). Has played in some very good hitters’ parks this year too.

Doug: Which of the four Missions’ pitchers hits the bigs first? Paddack, Quantrill, Nix, or Logan?
Keith Law: Nix then Paddack.

John: Any non-fiction book recs from the last 12-24 months? Looking for a gift for my Dad’s birthday and he loves NF!
Keith Law: Killers of the Flower Moon or Evicted.

Andy: Could Mookie have been an elite fielding 2B?
Keith Law: Yes. I’m not sure there’s a position where Mookie couldn’t be an elite fielder.

paul: love your work. question about the metropolitans. with cespedes out indefinitely should the mets trade degrom and thor? as a fan I almost think I might just stop watching baseball if they do. if all the players you cheer and root for get traded prematurely or hurt (david wright) and you have terrible ownership (also a redskins fan so its a double ball kick) what’s the point?
Keith Law: The franchise should trade them, but with no clear direction or single decision-maker right now, they should wait to hire a full-time GM and then make those deals. Doing it now, with a potentially restricted market (more teams likely to be buyers in December than July), probably reduces your return.

Adam: Should Touki be in the Braves pen now?
Keith Law: No. that would be counterproductive.

Jax : Is it 50/50 that Zack Collins stays behind the plate?
Keith Law: It’s like 10/90, or maybe less.

Esteban : How likely is it that the Wilpon’s are forced to sell the team? And are there any potential owners out there that would bring excitement to the team? Coming from a Mets fan
Keith Law: I think next to zero chance. They only did this with McCourt when he was (supposedly) about to miss payroll.

John: Do you think we see a multi-inning relief pitcher in a fireman-type role put up 100 IP in the next 5 years? (strictly RP – 0 start guys – have put up even 100 IP since 2010)
Keith Law: Would you consider a guy who makes 1-5 starts still a multi-inning reliever? I’m okay with that. The guy you’re describing would have to be capped at something like 50 appearances a year and we haven’t seen that in … 20 years?

ColinMoran: What do you think of Seth Lugo as an under the radar acquisition as a starter. Small sample but very good xwOBA as a starter.
Keith Law: xwOBA doesn’t work. Lugo’s interesting, more likely a reliever – get him and have him throw that CB a ton.

JJ: Did the Cardinals’ front office screw the pooch with Carson Kelly? Should they try to trade him now, even though his value has declined? I can’t see any way he takes any playing time from Yadi Molina over the next two plus seasons — he’s got more job security than a governor’s brother-in-law.
Keith Law: Could still trade him now/this winter. Everybody needs catching.

Troy: What is the best restaurant in the nation you’ve eaten at?
Keith Law: Juniper & Ivy in San Diego. Would also nominate Monteverde in Chicago, Cotogna in San Francisco, PYT in Los Angeles, Rose’s Luxury in DC, Five & Ten in Athens GA, Husk in Nashville/Charleston, and of course Pizzeria Bianco in Phoenix.

Dave: (Six Seasons and Root to Leaf are both really solid and current vegetarian cookbooks)
Keith Law: I will check these out.

Harry: Kodi Medeiros headed to the White Sox for Soria. Reactions?
Keith Law: I have never bought into Medeiros as anything more than a LH specialist.

Jesse B: Daz Cameron looks way better in AA than he did in High A, does this have anything to do with the two different leagues or is he just getting better?
Keith Law: FSL can be rough on guys with just so-so power. Aaron Judge power, you’re fine. Less than that, might be rough.

Tom C: Sorry about your cat, but I wanted to ask – was that the one that got stuck in the wall a while ago?
Keith Law: That’s him! Good memory. Bailey was a sweet cat but not the brightest bulb in the chandelier.

Simon: Jhailyn Ortiz….real deal or just a guy?
Keith Law: I am completely sold on the bat. I am far from sold that he can play LF.

Bob Nutting: Would Kramer and Newman (not the Seinfeld guys) be and upgrade over Mercer and Harrison? Seems to me they would at least be comparable and I could save mega $. What is not to like?
Keith Law: I’d be OK with this, assuming you think you could deal the two veterans for something useful.

Zihuatanejo: Why is the hit/power/speed/glove/arm scouting rubric still widely used for position players? It always seemed to me that it improperly suggested an equivalence between differently-valued tools.
Keith Law: It’s a useful framework, but the bigger problem is averaging the five grades, or otherwise pretending that, say, speed is as important as hit or power.

Drew: Is Dillon Tate the most promising prospect the O’s have acquired so far?
Keith Law: Diaz is.

Troy: How did you and Curt Schilling get along when he worked at ESPN.
Keith Law: Actually quite well.

Scott Rolan: Am I a Hall of Famer?
Keith Law: yes, but you will have to spell your name correctly to get the 200 points.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Kelenic made your top 50 update but was #6 on your draft board behind Bohm and Swaggerty, who didnt end up making the list. Why the bump up after just a few weeks of pro ball?
Keith Law: Is that OK with you? I didn’t realize I needed to adhere strictly to the draft board. We get more data on players and pro scouts get their first looks at guys once they sign.
Keith Law: I spoke to scouts who saw all three players you mentioned.

Ridley Kemp: Did you see the recent article on Cohl Furey and the quest to find the Grand Unified Theory using obscure algebra instead of by bashing particles together? If not, it’s a heady read (and it makes me a little ill to think some of our top minds are seriously considering busking to further their work):
Keith Law: Yes, this was in my latest Saturday links post … but I won’t pretend I understood the math either.

James: Would you be opposed to a “prospect roundtable” broadcast of yourself and other experts who do lists, such as Callis, Mayo, Sickles, BA staffers, etc, and arguing your lists with each other? Personally I’d pay money to see it.
Keith Law: Mayo and I have discussed doing something like this with Jim for years but could never get all sides to agree. The three of us get along quite well, even though I think readers think we’re rivals of some sort.

Matt : If the Yankees end up in the WC game would you give any thought to them starting anyone other than Severino and rely on the bullpen heavy so they can pitch him in game 1 against the Sox or Astros?
Keith Law: Yes, but that takes some serious stones to actually do it.

Joshua: Is Carter Kieboom a realistic option for the Nats opening day 2019 starting second baseman? Thanks.
Keith Law: I think that’s too optimistic.

Braised Short Ribs: Come back to us, Keith!
Keith Law: I miss you, man. I really do.

Stephen: Take on S1 of the Leftovers?
Keith Law: Amazing. Extremely well-acted across the board. Fascinating themes. Thought the season finale was clumsy, though.

Nick: Any concerns about David Peterson’s struggles in Hi-A? Reports are he has been getting hit hard since the promotion.
Keith Law: And his stuff is off a little too – dead arm, maybe? I’m hoping it’s nothing serious. He was straight dealing for almost three months, with stuff/reports to match.

James: Do you think the wrong Lowe played in the Futures game? I’m partial to Brandon – agree?
Keith Law: Same.

Marshall MN: In regard to TV shows, I give my highest recommendation to the German TV show “Dark” on Netflix.
Keith Law: Thank you. I think someone else rec’d that. Or maybe it was you and you’re just relentless?

Todd Boss: Strasburg to DL: is it officially wave the white flag time in DC? Their comp pick for Harper is almost useless thanks to poor cap management; do they dare make the trade and admit complete failure? Gio, Murphy maybe even Wieters might have trade value?
Keith Law: I could go either way with this. Yeah, if they sell, they could potentially add a lot of talent – if there are buyers for Harper or Murphy. But they’re also a lot better on paper than their record, and the teams ahead of them have both overachieved a lot. If they decide to stand pat, I won’t criticize them.

Joshua: In the past you’ve rated Luis Garcia below Yasel Antuna, is this still how you’d rate them? Thanks.
Keith Law: I rated them just once, but Garcia has moved way past Antuna, whose body apparently has gone way backwards, showing no twitch or athleticism this summer.

Brad: Thanks for the idea to read the Hugo Award winners. Any chance of going back to any other Sci-Fi/Horror books? I’ve just started Name of the Wind (Book 1 of the Kingkiller Chronicle) and it’s really good so far! Thanks for the great work
Keith Law: I’m reading non-Hugo winners too – I have The Fall of Hyperion in my suitcase right now.

Adam: I live ten minutes from Pizzeria Bianco and have still never been there
Keith Law: What is wrong with you?

Matt : Funny how republicans hate socialism but are somehow okay with a $12B handout to farmers being altered by Trump’s crazy trade war.
Keith Law: I pointed out to someone on Twitter who was decrying universal health care as “socialism” (not accurate) that we have seen actual ideas that resemble socialism from this administration – you named one, and the proposal to nationalize coal plants was another – than far more than the philosophy of providing health care for all citizens, which research indicates will lead to a more productive populace and greater economic growth, has to be.
Keith Law: People have been using “socialism” as a pejorative for economic ideas they dislike at least since I was in high school, probably back to McCarthyism. Socialism is a failure. That does not mean that laissez-faire capitalism is the correct solution for every policy problem.

Nate: Would you call up Lazardo to be a pen piece down the stretch and, possibly, in the postseason?
Keith Law: I would not.

Brandon Nimmo: Any interest in writing about politics? Love reading your takes on Twitter.
Keith Law: ESPN wouldn’t allow it, and I’d have to spent a LOT more time reading about those topics to be even close to educated enough to really write about it. It’s one thing to tweet; it’s another entirely to ask someone to pay you to write thousand-word columns that offer cogent arguments.

Jack: Do you think it is just my Philly fandom that I think there is a real possibility that trout comes to Philly when his contract is up? Middleton seems like he wants a splash.
Keith Law: I’m sure Middleton does … and so does every other owner with cash.

Brandon Nimmo: Whoever acquires Zack Wheeler is going to look really smart aren’t they? I just hope the Mets get more than RHP relief prospects.
Keith Law: There is no way I’m taking Wheeler if Woolsey isn’t in the deal too.

Jim: How good is Azul?
Keith Law: I loved it. Best game of 2017 for me. Easy to pick up, plays a little differently each time.
Keith Law: Plays well with 2, 3, or 4 too.

Mike: Does Brendan Rodgers have superstar potential?
Keith Law: Yeah, but more likely a solid 55.

Amy: Wouldn’t Mookie have more value as a 2B? If Pedrioa is done, why not move him to 2B, benintendi to CF, JBJ right, JDM left? Wouldn’t that maximize the lineup?
Keith Law: Sure, if Pedroia can accept the demotion.

Darryl: What is an appropriate age for considering travel ball? I chuckle at the parents who think a kid needs to be on display as a 9 y/o. Always thought anything before high school was a waste of money, time and potential abuse of an arm, but it may be my old school thinking that is getting in the way of things…
Keith Law: I tell parents in my neighborhood that it’s fine for their kids to play travel ball as long as they’re not being asked to fork out hundreds of dollars for events, and as long as they’re making sure their kids who pitch are following PitchSmart guidelines (lord knows the coaches don’t care). Playing more is good. Just don’t fool yourself into thinking you’re advancing his future just by paying more for high-profile events.

Brian: Would you mind clarifying what “Mentality is probably reliever too” means in reference to Hans Crouse?
Keith Law: He pitches like he wants to shove the ball down the hitter’s throat. I love it. And sometimes that kind of guy stays a starter (Scherzer comes to mind). Most end up relievers. It was a compliment, though.

Vladdy & Eloy: Please please please, don’t rank either of us #1 on your next prospect list! Muchas gracias!
Keith Law: Seriously. I don’t believe in hexes, curses, or other superstitions, but I can’t believe Tatis got hurt within hours of me listing him as #1. Hoping he and Vlad Jr. come to Fall League!

Nick L: It looks like Miguel Amaya is certainly the best Cubs prospect, but how good could he be? Do you see him as a top 75 prospect?
Keith Law: He’s a top 100 guy, I feel pretty confident about that. He is their #1 prospect, easily.

Josh: Do you ever see a point where the current ownership of the A’s spends like the average MLB team? Seems like a new stadium is just an excuse. If the Warriors are able to spend and be successful across the parking lot, why can’t the A’s do more?
Keith Law: If they spend more now, it undercuts their claims that they need a new stadium (which they do – not that i think the city should pay for it, but they do need one). They have a strong disincentive.

Devon: Hi Keith. How has your anxiety been? Also, how is it when you travel? My symptoms tend to get worse. Any tips? Thanks!
Keith Law: Thank you for asking. I’ve been pretty good the last few weeks; it’s always higher leading up to the draft. The vacation helped, once we were on the plane.

KO: What is your favorite Cape League Park to watch a game at?
Keith Law: I can tell you my least favorite is Wareham.

BE: Will there be any big names at the August deadline, or was last year just an anomoly?
Keith Law: Last year was an anomaly.

Chip: What’s the top of next year’s draft looking like? I know it’s all highly subject to change, but wondering if there’s a generational talent or at least a Mize up their for the O’s
Tom: Why is Raimel Tapia in the majors if he’s not getting any playing time? Seems like a waste.
Keith Law: Very weak college pitching crop. Adequate HS crop. College bats are good not great. Overall looks like a down year.
Keith Law: I agree on Tapia, although no hitter is learning anything by hitting in Albuquerque either.

Jim: How much would Shin-Soo Choo help the phillies lineup? What would be the cost? Thanks, love your blog.
Keith Law: Does he fit them at all? Probably needs to DH. Their corner OF are both LHB.

Mike: Is there any valid reasons pitchers can’t run hard on groundballs when it appears they will be out?
Keith Law: Yeah, the risk of serious injury on something totally stupid.

Jackie: It used to be that 300 wins, 3K strikeouts, 3,000 hits, or 500 HR were automatic qualifiers for the HOF. Do you think there are any benchmarks for voters these days?
Keith Law: 3000 hits probably still gets you in unless you have the PED stain upon you. The pitching benchmarks have fallen, as they should.

Pat D: Still interested in seeing The Happytime Murders?
Keith Law: Yep. That and Black Klansman are the two films I’m most looking forward to right now.

bartleby: please explain to me why Jose Reyes and Juan Bautista are getting playing time.
Keith Law: #LOLMets?

Bredin: Is Gavin Lux a top 100 guy? Could you just give us your thoughts on him in general as well? Thank you, sir.
Keith Law: I’m very pleased to see his progress this year, although he’s still a cipher against LHP, and I don’t know how much of his power is the Cal League and how much is that the Dodgers try to optimize every prospect’s launch angle. He can play short, though, and his hit and eye tools are already there. Regular for me with lots of potential for more.

Salzer: I love me some Bo Bichette. Has his stock taken a hit at all or is the lower average just normal growing pains?
Keith Law: I just ranked him as highly this month as I had in the winter. Still quite young for double-A, too.

Dennis S: Is there any way the Dodgers sign Machado, move him to second or third base with Seager back or would that just cripple their overall player budget?
Keith Law: Seems like they’ll be outbid, given their general philosophy on free agents – and Kershaw can opt out if he wants to, so they may end up renegotiating his deal to prevent that.

tom: Am I being too optimistic in seeing a #2 starter in Chris Paddack? I mean, to the naked eye both the control & command are 70 grade. I realize he’ll need a 3rd pitch – how has his curveball progressed? He seems to be dominating AA hitters as much as he did in High A
Keith Law: It isn’t impossible to be a #2 with a below-average breaking ball, but it’s rare/unusual.

Matt : Do you have an interest in economics or more specifically stocks/investing. With your background it seems like topics you’d be on board learning about.
Keith Law: I don’t think an individual can beat the market. Used to read a lot more on that topic, and covered a lot of it in school. More interested in the behavioral economics stuff – what drives our thinking, and our bad decisions, and why man isn’t the rational actor that 200+ years of economic philosophy claimed he was.

Brett: Scott Kingery or Luis Urias long term?
Keith Law: Urias. Both good.

Frank: Derick Rodriguez has pitched very well for the Giants. Can he be a solid #2 or #3 going forward?
Keith Law: Way too high. Back-end starter.

Jim, the Frustrated Fan: I’m SOOOO tired of seeing so many injuries as a result of head first slides. Is there any evidence feet-first slides are at all safer?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to that, actually.

Darryl: Recommended restaurants in downtown Chicago? Family is taking a trip next month and would love your input!
Keith Law: Monteverde, Publican & Publican Quality Meats, any Rick Bayliss place, Little Goat (haven’t been to Girl & the Goat, I assume it’s fantastic). Pretty good little food town they got there.

Dave: I was wondering why you think nobody has signed Hanley Ramirez, since all they’d have to pay is the pro-rated minimum. Is he that done? Also wanted to thank you for the chats and for Stick to Baseball. Although I have an issue with Stick to Baseball, because of all the extra reading I have to do. BTW who’d a thunk George Will would become the voice of reason.
Keith Law: Doesn’t have any defensive value and teams are loath to burn bench spots on guys like that, not when everyone wants to carry 15 pitches.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all as always for reading and all of your questions, and this week for bearing with me as I got caught in traffic (!) driving here on the Cape. I may not chat next week because I’ll be at Gen Con – and hope to see many of you there. Also, if you’re near Acton, Massachusetts, come see me Saturday at 1 pm at Paul Swydan’s new bookstore The Silver Unicorn. I’ll talk baseball, take your questions, and sign copies of Smart Baseball!

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→ July 24, 2018
→ By

A Bend in the River.

V.S. Naipaul is one of the most lauded novelists still living, a man whose legacy appears to have been carved in stone long ago and that is now impervious to reassessment. The Trinidadian-Indian author won the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2001, won the Booker Prize in 1971 for In a Free State, won the David Cohen Prize in 1993 (for an author’s entire body of work, limited to the English language), and several lesser prizes. His seriocomic novel A House for Mr. Biswas, which catapulted him to global literary fame, appeared on both the Modern Library list of the 100 best novels of the 20th century and the TIME list of the 100 best novels written in English from 1923 (the magazine’s founding) to 2005.

His 1979 novel A Bend in the River, which was shortlisted for the Booker Prize, also made the Modern Library list and the Guardian‘s list of the 100 greatest novels ever written. Dispensing with the comedy of some of his earlier works, this novel instead paints an unflattering, inside picture of the brief rise of a newly independent African nation, but one that slides just as easily into despotism once the white authorities who provided the country’s power structure have left.

* I should mention that Naipaul’s longtime mistress Margaret Murray accused him of physically abusing her, and author Paul Theroux supported this and also wrote that Naipaul abused his wife but refused to divorce her. You can see letters from both in the New York Review of Books from 2009. Whether you can separate the man from his art is up to you.

The country of the book is never named, perhaps to keep the story generalizable to the dozens of newly formed nations in Africa of the 1960s as the white colonizers, having taken their fill of the country’s natural resources, departed the continent, sometimes with violence (Algeria, Belgian Congo), sometimes without. Naipaul’s narrator is Salim, an Indian Muslim in Africa, an outsider by caste who can observe the changes in the country in somewhat dispassionate fashion, although there are points in the novel where his difference from the majority of the population becomes or at least threatens to become an issue. The bend in the river of the title refers to the location of the small interior city where Salim lives, chosen for its advantageous geography for colonial traders, and thus a relic of a previous and dark era in the country’s history.

Salim is friends with several people who are deeply involved in the economy and/or the government of the new country, one of whom in particular becomes adviser to the leader who turns strongman as the novel progresses. Raymond, the adviser, becomes increasingly impotent even as the President – also called the Big Man – seizes more power, eventually creating a Hitler Youth-like group of young partisans while empowering the army to terrorize the people and plunder at will. It’s a familiar story drawn from dozens of real histories of newly independent nations that fell quickly into authoritarian rule because the white people left nothing behind – no institutions, no guidance, and an uneducated population unprepared for rule after years of forced ignorance from their colonial oppressors.

Naipaul couldn’t be clearer in his disdain for the colonizers and the mess they left behind, but he also seems to have little use or empathy for the populaces now under the thumbs of their new dictators, often men they supported and voted into power. The last section sees Salim traveling to London to see an old colleague, and it becomes clear that Salim is not long for his country, as Naipaul’s depiction has the new nation worse off under native leadership than it was under the white regime. Things did fall apart in many places, but there’s an underlying implication – or perhaps just my inference – that things were better under European rule, and I think that is, at best, an oversimplification.

The other issue with this book and with Mr. Biswas is that I couldn’t connect with the main characters. Biswas was a sad-sack type, born under a black cloud, but also prone to making really bad decisions that exacerbated his bad luck. Salim isn’t quite so unfortunate, running afoul of the authorities just once near the end of the book, but he’s inert as a character – the neutral narrator, involved in some of the action, but betraying none of his personality. If there’s a star in the book, it’s the town, not the people; you get glimpses of the haphazard growth of an interior city in a country that is simultaneously booming and collapsing. But that wasn’t enough to power me through the novel.

Next up: Maryn McKenna’s Big Chicken: The Incredible Story of How Antibiotics Created Modern Agriculture and Changed the Way the World Eats

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→ July 22, 2018
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The Stone Sky.

N.K. Jemisin became the first African-American author to win the Hugo Award for Best Novel, and I believe the first woman of color to win it, when she took the prestigious (but generally white-dominated) prize home for her 2015 novel The Fifth Season, the opener of the Broken Earth trilogy. The story continued with The Obelisk Gate, which also took home the Hugo, and finished with last summer’s The Stone Sky, which is one of six nominees for this year’s Hugo and won Jemisin her first Nebula Award earlier this year. Continuing the saga of Essun and her daughter Nassun, two ‘orogenes’ who can control seismic movements in an earth subject to massive tectonic upheavals that cause lengthy climate disasters, The Stone Sky explains the origins of the post-apocalyptic setting and combines the parallel narratives – Essun’s, Nassun’s, and the nameless narrator of Essun’s sections, who is identified near the end of this book – into one story that answers all of the questions from the first two books. Wrapping up a series of this magnitude is difficult, and Jemisin, who has authored many other books, including series, seems to wobble as she tries to conclude this one. (UPDATE: This novel also won the Hugo, making Jemisin the first author to win the prize for all three books in a trilogy, and the first to win three straight Hugos for Best Novel.)

In the Broken Earth trilogy, humanity is in dire straits, as relatively unpredictable “Seasons” occur that produce catastrophic weather conditions that make survival extremely difficult, driving most humans, especially those near the Rifting (which I sense is by the equator), underground for the duration. If they don’t have food stores to survive, then they die. Somehow, enough humans have survived that the race persists, including some humans with the strange power of orogeny, allowing them to move the earth’s plates enough to try to stop some of those catastrophes from occurring. They also can draw on the power of the planet for combat, defensive or offensive, and there’s some overlap between the orogenes and people with a power the book refers to as magic, of even more obscure origin. And then there are the stone eaters, humanoid creatures who do as their name implies, can move through rock, and are effectively immortal.

Essun and Nassun are mother and daughter, but have been apart since the very beginning of The First Season, when Nassun’s father killed her little brother because he showed signs of orogeny and then absconded with her, leaving Essun to come home and find her son’s body with her family gone. Essun is part of a new ‘comm,’ which is trying to reach a distant haven before the imminent Season arrives, but is also still hoping to find her daughter, and in this book, she becomes aware that Nassun is doing things with her own nascent orogenic powers, driving Essun, herself one of the most powerful orogenes on the planet, to try to stop her daughter from wreaking unimaginable destruction on the world.

Nassun, meanwhile, has now lost her brother and father, and is separated from her mother, leaving her only with her Guardian, Schaffa, who acts as a father figure but also has ambiguous responsibilities beyond protecting his young charge. When his life is threatened, Nassun sets off on a quixotic mission that might save him but bring about an eschatological crisis from which humanity and the planet would never recover.
Although the series’ post-apocalyptic setting appears in the first novel to be the result of unchecked climate change, the cause of the Seasons turns out to be more fantastical than that, and any indictment of man’s reckless misuse of the planet and its environment is strictly metaphorical. The stronger metaphor, played out in parallel with Essun and Nassun, is one of man’s relationship with ‘Mother’ Earth, and the changes in the nature of that relationship over the course of the lives of both mother and child. Nassun needs her mother, but resents her absence (feeling abandoned, although that’s not fair to Essun). Essun is torn between her responsibilities to her comm – which is what’s keeping her alive – and her responsibilities to her daughter. Nassun eventually takes a course of action that reflects her youth and the poor judgment of humans whose brains have not yet fully developed, and it takes a heroic effort from Essun to try to stop her. The parallel with the man/Earth relationship here – there’s a hint of Gaia theory underneath the novel – is not perfect, but similar ideas, like man taking the environment for granted, using it up and discarding it when finished, appear in both the literal and figurative aspects of the novel.

The problem with The Stone Sky and the trilogy as a whole is the resolution of the main storyline, which seems to require Jemisin to create some new magic to complete it. The first book conceived a world that, while strange and often vague, felt self-contained: You didn’t know all of the rules of the environment, but you could trust that the author knew them and worked within their limits. By this third book, however, it seemed like Jemisin had expanded her own rule set to get to the finish line, including the transport method – like a hyperloop train through the earth – that is essential to get everyone in the right place for the slam-bang finish, and I found my suspension of disbelief starting to fall apart. Between that and some plodding prose – Jemisin is clearly brilliant and creative, but I found her style sluggish to read – I finished this book because I felt an obligation to it, but wouldn’t say I enjoyed it to the end.

Next up: still reading John Wray’s The Lost Time Accidents.

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→ July 21, 2018
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Stick to baseball, 7/21/21.

For Insiders this week, I updated my ranking of the top 50 prospects in the minors and posted analyses of the Manny Machado trade and the Brad Hand/Francisco Mejia trade. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

My next game review for Paste will go up next week; this week I reviewed the app version of Istanbul, a great strategic game of pathfinding and set collection, here on the dish.

I’ll be at the Silver Unicorn Bookstore in Acton, Massachusetts, on July 28th at 1 pm to talk Smart Baseball and sign copies.

And now, the links…

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→ July 20, 2018
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Ice.

I get a daily email from a site called Bookbub that highlights ebooks on sale each day, slightly tailored to my tastes by books or authors I’ve indicated I like; I probably buy 20-25 books a year that way, sometimes picking up titles I wouldn’t have heard of otherwise. One of those was Anna Kavan’s final novel, Ice published shortly before her death in 1967, a book and author with which I was completely unfamiliar until I saw the cover in one of those daily emails and thought it sounded interesting enough to pick up (and, at maybe 150 pages total, a small investment to make). It is interesting … and absolutely one of the weirdest things I’ve ever read, defying all conventions of narrative in how it treats characters, time, or even physical reality, giving the reader (well, this reader) the sense of watching or reading someone else’s dream.

Ice is told from the perspective of an unnamed man who is following and possibly trying to protect a frail young woman, also unnamed, in a post-apocalyptic world of nuclear winter, where an ice shelf is pushing civilization back towards the equator. The girl is often with a character called the Warden, who by turns seems to be her lover, her captor, or her protector. But the narrative itself is far from straightforward; the girl is lost, injured, or killed multiple times in the story, only to reappear in the next chapter as if those things never happened. The narrator himself becomes increasingly incoherent as the book progresses, and begins to question his own sanity as the story moves along, and what exactly his feelings are for this girl, who also seems less than happy to be ‘rescued’ by him at several points in the book. Kavan herself called the story a fable, but even that fails to quite prepare the reader for what is now known as slipstream literature, which mimics the jarring, nonlinear nature of dreams or subconscious thought; it’s easier to follow than James Joyce’s attempts to write as the brain thinks, or subsequent authors who’ve done the same (like Eimear McBride), but still brings the sense of being on a rollercoaster in the dark, where you can’t anticipate the turns, drops, or the end of the ride.

Part of what makes Ice simultaneously compelling and offputting is that Kavan never tries to distinguish between what’s real and what is a delusion, dream, or hallucination of the narrator; the prose simply slips from the realistic to the bizarre without any notice to tell you that things have changed or that we’re in the narrator’s head. It’s more than just an unreliable narrator – the narrator here doesn’t seem to know he’s unreliable, and he jumps time and place in dizzying fashion. You have to enjoy that kind of writing to appreciate Ice, and if it were twice the length I would have found it frustrating, but at close to novella size it becomes a sort of thrill ride through a fever dream.

Kavan died mere months after the book’s publication in the UK and a week before its publication in the U.S., so the years of conversation and interpretation that might have followed its release never happened – and the book itself may have come to greater attention because she’d died. There’s an obvious Cold War theme to the story and the setting, both the post-nuclear aspect and the analogy of a frozen world to a war described by temperature, but more interesting to me is the exploration of woman’s agency through the eyes of a man who sees himself as her white knight but may in fact be operating entirely against her wishes. The story starts out in traditional enough fashion, with the Warden the antagonist who is threatening the girl with imprisonment, rape, or death, but it’s never even clear that the narrator and the Warden are on opposing sides, or what the girl, never named and often on the run, actually wants at any point in the book. Her story is actually the pivotal one, yet Kavan gives us barely any details on the girl herself, which seems like a perfect metaphor for the invisible women throughout human history who’ve been ignored by the men who wrote the books.

Next up: I’m reading John Wray’s 2016 novel The Lost Time Accidents.

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