Uncategorized — Page 51

→ March 6, 2021
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 3/6/21.

For subscribers to the Athletic, I ranked the top 30 prospects in this year’s draft class, with the caveat of course that we’ll likely see a lot of movement this spring because most college players didn’t play at all last summer or fall. I also answered some questions on the Padres’ farm system for our beat writer Dennis Lin. And I held a Klawchat on Thursday.

My guest on the Keith Law Show this week is Aaron Fitt of D1baseball.com, talking about this year’s draft class, Kumar Rocker vs. Jack Leiter, and other topics around college baseball. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify.

The latest edition of my free email newsletter was about how it feels when the face in the mirror finally starts to catch up with your biological age. Also, you can still buy The Inside Gameand Smart Baseball anywhere you buy books; the paperback edition of The Inside Game will be out on April 6^th.

And now, the links…

Longreads first: WIRED looks at the strange economy of scandals in Hollywood and the man who often inserts himself into the deals made around them.
In 1963, Alderman Ben Lewis, a rising political figure in Chicago and one of the most powerful Black men in the city government, was killed in his office, execution-style, but the city made sure not to investigate it thoroughly. ProPublica examines why not, and whether the police may have been involved in the murder.
Anti-vaxxers are now misusing federal data to lie about COVID-19 vaccines, claiming they pose dangers that aren’t supported by evidence. Alex Berenson, once a promising New York Times reporter, has now gone from cannabis alarmist to COVID-19 denialist to full-blown anti-vaxxer, using his sizable Twitter following to encourage fellow deniers and discourage people from getting the vaccine.
The Washington Post examines the history of lies and fraud that propelled Madison Cawthorn to the House of Representatives.
From last August, Current Affairs explains that police aren’t the answer if crime isn’t actually the question.
The Guardian has the story of the battle over the Wentworth golf club in Surrey, England, which they describe as a battle between the rich and the very, very rich.
Georgia Public Broadcasting has an update on the voter suppression bills currently in the works in the state.
Kayla Parker, a 25-year-old Black activist, is trying to mobilize Tennessee voters the way Stacey Abrams did in Georgia.
Dr. Richard Pan, a state Senator in California, writes that anti-vaccine extremism is a form of domestic terrorism.
David Leonhardt, writing the daily briefing for the New York Times, explains why the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is just as effective as the other two vaccines on the market already, even though misleading headlines show lower efficacy rates.
The University of Texas is embroiled in a completely avoidable controversy over a racist song sung by some fans of their football team. Some angry white donors sent some rather telling emails to the school, threatening to pull their donations if the racist song was banned, because you can’t have college football if you don’t get to do a racism.
The Atlantic reports on the success of a small Universal Basic Income experiment in Stockton, California. The United States is the stingiest developed country when it comes to helping people in our lowest income strata. That needs to change if we don’t want to lose the economic and social gains of the last century.
New York Times opinion page writer David Brooks, who hates millennials but married one anyway, has been taking a second salary from the Weave Project, funded by Facebook and by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’ father, without disclosing the potential conflict of interest to his editors or his readers.
A U.S. diplomat has been railing against Jews and promoting the idea of a Christian nation-state online for years and is somehow still employed by the Foreign Service.
Wealthy residents of one town in the Florida Keys received COVID-19 vaccines before most of the state … and, oh, hey, a bunch of donors to Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) live there.
Dan Dakich, an announcer for ESPN and a former assistant coach who has denied being there when Bobby Knight choked Neil Reed, doxxed a UNC teacher and threatened to sexually assault an Ursinus professor. Somehow, four days later, ESPN hasn’t suspended him or taken any other action. Sure seems like they move a lot faster when the tweets are about evolution, doesn’t it?
Former WNBA owner and former Senator Kelly Loeffler lost control of her basketball team to a player whom she refused to meet to discuss their differences of opinion.
The former head of the agency that oversees the Voice of America racked up over $1 million in taxpayer-funded expenditures to investigate his own employees to find reasons to fire them. I thought the Republicans were the party of smaller government and less waste?
These transgender athlete bills pushed by Republican lawmakers – who don’t care about athletes of any identities, only about staying in power – are a solution in search of a problem, according to critics of one such bill in Missouri.
Hundreds of scientists and researchers have signed an open letter to President Biden saying that evidence-based policy should mean decriminalizing sex work. Doing so would be the best way to protect the interests and health of the workers themselves.
Board Game News: Red Rising, the latest release from publisher Stonemaier Games (Scythe, Charterstone, Pendulum), is now available for pre-order.
Alderac has a Kickstarter up for Meeples & Monsters that funded fully in just 15 minutes.
And there’s also a Kickstarter for High Noon, a card-based strategy game for 2+ players, where the first 4000 people to fund the game will get their copies as soon as the Kickstarter closes – the first I’ve seen of this in a board game crowdfunding effort.
The British Museum offers a look at ten board games from ancient history.
And finally, watch a doctor dismantle Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene’s ignorant claims on sex and gender in about 30 seconds.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: florida, lgbt rights, links, longreads, social media, texas, the swamp, vaccines

→ March 5, 2021
→ By keith

Wolfwalkers.

Wolfwalkers is the latest film from the Irish animation studio Cartoon Saloon, the 2-D specialists who have received Academy Award nominations for all three of their previous full-length films, Song of the Sea, The Secret of Kells, and The Breadwinner. Based on an original story by Will Collins, writer of Song of the Sea, this film – available only on Apple TV+ right now – is Cartoon Saloon’s best yet, with its most cohesive story and stunning hand-drawn animation, enough that it should win the studio their first Oscar, even though that won’t likely come to pass.

The story takes place in the 1600s in Kilkenny, a town in southern Ireland, where Robyn and her father Bill Goodfellowe have just arrived. The town is threatened by wolves in the nearby forest, which the town’s Lord Protector wishes to clear-cut, which would kill off the wolves or force them to move to another stand. Bill is a soldier, and wants Robyn to stay at home, for her own protection and other reasons that will become apparent, while Robyn is every young person in every animated movie ever – she wants to go out, explore, be a warrior, and so on. She gets into trouble multiple times, and ends up in the forest herself, where she discovers a Wolfwalker, a young girl named Mebh who can project herself into a corporeal wolf, leaving her human body in repose. The two become friends, and Robyn realizes that her father and her town will destroy Mebh’s entire pack – and kill Mebh’s mother, who left in her wolf form some weeks before and has yet to return.

The themes here are pretty straightforward – mankind’s inability to find balance with nature or respect other sentient species, and the dangerous combination of superstition and ignorance – and the Lord Protector character is fairly one-note, although he’s less overtly evil than the typical villain in animated fare. The relationship between the two girls is the real heart of the story, and the best sequences are when the two are together in human or wolf form, from their initial bickering to a very real argument that starts because Robyn tries to protect Mebh without respecting the latter’s agency. The relationship between Robyn and her father could have been more fleshed out early in the film, although it’s authentic enough as it is.

What sets Wolfwalkers apart from other animated films, and even Cartoon Saloon’s prior work, is the animation style. Cartoon Saloon’s animated people have a certain look to them, which is no different here, but the world around the characters explodes off the screen in color and texture – and that includes Mebh’s hair, which you’ve seen if you’ve seen any promotional materials for the film. The Breadwinner‘s setting required a grim color palette and harsh backgrounds, but Wolfwalkers is set on the Emerald Isle and the animators make sure you never forget it. It’s a visual feast, and even the occasional shot within the town walls, where colors are muted and you can almost feel the dust and soot in the air, can still be a marvel of layering and imagination.

You can guess most of the story’s ending by its midpoint, although the way our heroines defeat the Lord Protector has at least one surprise in it, so the development of Robyn’s character, and her relationship with Mebh, end up carrying the weight in the plot. It’s fortunate that the script is up to that task, and the two young women who voice those lead characters, Honor Kneafsey and Eva Whittaker respectively, are so good, with an on-screen relationship reminiscent of the one the Fanning sisters showed in My Neighbor Totoro. There’s a little violence here that would make this inappropriate for the youngest viewers, but less than you’d find in a typical super-hero movie (including Into the Spider-Verse). I haven’t seen all of the possible nominees yet, but I’m high enough on Wolfwalkers to say it’s going to be the best animated film of 2020.

Wolfwalkers was nominated for the Golden Globe for Best Animated Feature Film, but lost out to Pixar’s Soul, which seems likely to recur at the Oscars, where Onward (meh) and Over the Moon will probably get two of the other three nominations but have no chance to win. I don’t think there’s any comparison here; Soul is the more technically impressive film, and funnier, but has a far less interesting story, worse character development, and isn’t as visually appealing.It’s just very hard for other studios to beat Pixar/Disney; those studios have taken 13 of the 19 Oscars in this category, and 7 of the last 8. They often deserve the wins, but have also won several for no apparent reason other than commercial popularity – Frozen over both The Wind Rises and Ernest & Celestine comes to mind, as does Brave over, well, anything decent – so the odds seem to be stacked against any competing studio. Wolfwalkers is clearly the better film, however, and if you are one of the 18 people in the United States who has Apple TV+, add this to your queue.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2020 best animated feature nominees, 2020 movies, animation, highly recommended

→ March 4, 2021
→ By keith

Klawchat 3/4/21.

My ranking of the top 30 prospects for this year’s MLB Draft is now up for The Athletic subscribers.

Keith Law: Gold’s just around the corner. Klawchat.

Bradley: What do you think Sal Frelick’s potential MLB comp is?
Keith Law: I don’t like player comps, for various reasons. As he is now, he’s a leadoff type, high average/OBP, speed, defense in CF. Aaron Fitt and I discussed him on the podcast this week and he really thinks there will be more power in there. I could see that with some swing help.

JD: You said on the podcast that this seemed like a weak draft class. Same with 2022? Any particular standouts there already – Green, Johnson, someone else?
Keith Law: I don’t think I said that – it’s not a weak class, it’s kind of a good one. Strong in college RHP, high school shortstops, more catching than usual. Light on college bats – there may not be a college bat in the top ten – and left-handed pitching.

Tom G: Is there a comp for Lewis that you know of? 2 years off of baseball at such a young age?
Keith Law: Which Lewis?

Flavia: Do you have any concerns about the shape of Leiter’s curveball translating to MLB?
Keith Law: No. That’s … weird. I don’t think I’ve ever heard that complaint about a player.

Jared: Do Antonetti and Francona need to go? Still some fact-finding to do, I suppose, but it reeeally looks like they knew and covered it up.
Keith Law: If executives know a potential employee has a history of the kind of behavior Callaway exhibited, and hire him anyway, yes, they should be let go.

Jason: Thoughts on the JBJ signing? I guess you can never have too many OF. Are we a pitching and D team, hoping to win 1-0?
Keith Law: What if you made the whole team out of centerfielders?
Keith Law: I actually love the deal. But i wonder if there’s a trade coming too – do they really need him, Cain, and Garcia?

David P: Who is the better pitcher? Grayson Rodriguez or Edward Cabrera. I’m torn but lean towards Grayson.
Keith Law: I ranked them both on my top 100, so the one I put higher is going to be my pick.

whyaremen: If I get the vaccine is there any reason for me to not attend games, from a public health perspective?
Keith Law: No, but wear a mask so you don’t spread the virus unknowingly.

David P: Any sense on who the Red Sox prefer at 4? Would they really draft a bat over one of the 3 pitchers?
Keith Law: WAY too early. Anyone trying to claim they know who’s drafting whom, or even who teams are targeting, is misleading you. I was with the Jays for five springs, and we never had anything narrowed down this early. This year it’s even less likely teams will do so.

Noah D: Hey Klaw, who do you see winning the Cleveland SS job between Gimenez and Rosario? Both were highly touted at one time
Keith Law: No inside info here, but I’d guess Gimenez is the regular SS and Rosario ends up playing multiple positions.

@RichCampbellPhD: I’ve had some fun watching ASU streaming games while waiting for April 1. How will the scouting of college players go for this year’s draft? Are word-of-mouth/network effects going to be even more pronounced than usual?
Keith Law: Teams are able to send scouts to most colleges right now. I only know of a handful of prospects who can’t be scouted in person right now, like Mason Black (who was scouted at Coppin State last week, but whose school, Lehigh, isn’t allowing anyone into games yet).

Barry: Will you be doing an Eagles draft preview this year? Seriously though, it would be fun if you joined The Athletics’s Eagles podcast as a guest at some point.
Keith Law: I don’t know how to define my Eagles fandom if I can’t complain about how Carson Wentz must be color blind since he never seemed to distinguish between his own receivers and the other team’s secondary.

Rocky: Do you think Gabriel Moreno has the chance to crack the top 100 prospects this year?
Keith Law: If you read all the way to the end of my Blue Jays org report, I answer that question directly.

Guest: RE SF Giants. Is this a draft class that allows the Giants to load up on arm talent? It seems the Giants farm system, while getting stronger generally, is lacking high ceiling arm talent. Thoughts?
Keith Law: They’re definitely lighter on arms than bats. They could probably grab 2-3 quality arms in their first three picks, although I’d always advise best player available.

Adam: The Padres 5th OF job appears to be Brian O’Grady’s to lose going into Spring Training. More importantly, he is likely the primary back up to Trent Grisham in CF. If Grisham were to get banged up a bit, how much faith (both defensively and offensively) would you have in him starting for an extended amount of time?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t let him play there on more than an emergency basis.

Adam: Now that Fernando Tatís Jr is locked up for the next 14 years, would you project CJ Abrams as a CF or as a 2B long term? Which of the two positions is deemed more valuable?
Keith Law: He’s a shortstop.

Mason: Do you follow what’s going on in Independent ball much? Noticed some former 1st round picks will be coming to a city near me in Nick Travieso and Ty Hensley. Any chance they can break back through to affiliated ball?
Keith Law: Hensley’s main issue was health – and it wasn’t his fault. All depends on how hard they’re throwing, and in Travieso’s case I’d ask where his arm slot is these days.

Joe J: What is Franco’s ceiling? Can he be better than Tatis?
Keith Law: He’s not as dynamic as Tatis, or as fast, but he’s a better pure hitter.

Ben: Keith, why do you hate my draft prospect?
Keith Law: I hate all draft prospects equally.

Adam: Agree or disagree: Preller teaching himself Spanish and Japanese, never having an arbitration hearing during his tenure with the Padres, and not playing service time games with top prospects shows that he understands how valuable a track record of good faith is when you negotiate extensions. This is on top of building one of the best scouting and player development programs in the league. The man is simply a great executive.
Keith Law: That you, AJ?

Geordy: What has caused Luke Leto’s star to fall so far?
Keith Law: I don’t know how a high school player’s star could have “fallen.” When was he … whatever you think he was?
Keith Law: It’s not like we’re talking about a drafted kid who flopped in pro ball or something.

TomBruno23: I cannot bring myself to give a ____ about rules in spring training games. Am I ok?
Keith Law: They’re just practice for profit. I don’t get too worked up about it as long as no one does anything stupid.

Aaron C.: Have you ever written at length about pitcher usage in college (or high school)? Forgive my ignorance, but a hasty Google didn’t bring up anything.
Keith Law: Probably lost to the ESPN site re-design a few years ago.

Jon G: I’ve seen a couple of early mocks with catchers going to the Cubs. I’m not taking mocks very seriously at this point, but the team has given out a lot of its bigger bonuses in the draft and J2 market to catchers. Given the eventual shift to robo umps, how smart of a strategy would cornering the market on young, bat-first catchers be? Does a rule change mitigate the risk of targeting that demographic to any degree?
Keith Law: Don’t pay any attention to “early mocks.” They’re just guesses; no team has any idea who they’re taking now.
Keith Law: The risk of catchers isn’t related to framing. It’s related to the huge wear and tear of the position, as well as the difficulty of learning to hit while also learning to be a catcher.

Chris: How many negative reports on a prospect’s off-the-field traits does it take for you to be comfortable mentioning said traits about that given player? I imagine that would be a difficult situation to handle, you don’t want to besmirch a player’s reputations because some former coach or teammate didn’t like them for some reason. Guessing if you hear “man, player A is difficult to work with/is a nightmare off the field” enough times you’d be okay mentioning it in a story, just curious where that line is. (Apologies if my wording is clumsy)
Keith Law: I have to hear it from multiple, clearly disconnected sources.

John: Now with Triple-A being delayed, do the Mariners start Kelenic on opening day?
Keith Law: I would. The Mariners might. Kevin Mather wouldn’t have.

Tom G: Sorry Royce Lewis
Keith Law: That helps. Josh Hamilton did, and both were #1 overall picks (although quite dissimilar as players, and as people). Sucks for Lewis, though, because he had real swing issues he had to fix, and now he can’t really work on them for a least 6-7 months.

Guest: Hi Keith! What are floor and ceiling of the Braves Contreras? Who is the long term catcher for Atlanta, him or Langeliers?
Keith Law: Either. One ends up traded. Both are everyday catchers.

Thomas: Hi Keith; Thanks as always for these. You’ve been pretty vocal (which I agree with) about Cavan Biggio not really being an everyday player. However, given the front office has talked him up as being a core player for a couple of years now, do you actually envision them doing a 180 at some point, or do you think front offices feel like they’ve painted themselves into a corner when they make comments like these? (side note, it sounds like Montoyo is going to bat Springer leadoff. I was legit worried he would keep Biggio up there).
Keith Law: The signing of Semien told us far more than their words ever did.

Matt: Keith – I really love that you appreciate progressive metal. I’m a huge Mastodon fan and have recently been getting into Gojira. What other bands would you recommended in that genre?
Keith Law: Alcest, Pallbearer (doom), Toundra come to mind.

HH: Have you noticed any changes in the college ranks to how college coaches are (ab)using their top prospect starters? Are coaches doing it less? Are prospects & their parents avoiding coaches with such reputations?
Keith Law: Not that I’ve noticed.

Jeff: Which do you think is more anti-player, the draft or the international signing cap? As I get older, I am really starting to understand how unfair a draft is to labor. But is the international process any better?
Keith Law: They’re both anti-player and pro-owner.
Keith Law: Both shift money from players to ownership. Full stop.

Oscar: Klaw, what are the chances we see some fans in the CWS in Omaha? Also what’s the chance we see you come out for a few games?
Keith Law: Nebraska never even bothered with a mask mandate, right? And didn’t give two shits about workers in their meatpacking factories? They’ll probably allow 100% capacity by June.
Keith Law: I don’t go to the College World Series. In the past it was after the draft, so it was useless, but even now it’s not a good scouting environment.

Todd: Any thoughts on todays inauguration?
Keith Law: Just how many Great Disappointments can these people undergo before realizing they’ve all been duped?

TomBruno23: Thinking about whyaremen’s question as well…I am lucky enough to be getting my 2nd dose next Thursday, my favorite ballclub announced they are selling 15k per game…yet I am kind of like, “Nah, TV is fine.”
Keith Law: I can certainly understand refusing to support a team that is acting against the community interest, but once I’m vaccinated I will go to games, wearing a mask (or two), with little concern about catching the virus.

ATR: What do you think Willi Castro’s ceiling is?
Keith Law: Could be an everyday player.

Rob: Do you put any stock into raving spring training reviews of a young prospect’s work ethic and attitude?
Keith Law: No. I would put stock into a major league manager saying, “Joey Bagodonuts? He’s the laziest kid I’ve ever had. Rolls in at 5:30 for the five o’clock meeting, beer in one hand and cigarette in the other.”

Nelson: Didn’t see Huascar Ynoa on your Braves prospect report (maybe he’s ineligible, i am not clear), but do you think he can be useful at the MLB level? Think you were pretty high on him in your 2020 system report.
Keith Law: Ineligible. He was a prospect, will probably be a solid reliever for them this year.

Don: How does Ian Moller compare to other recent HS catchers?
Keith Law: Bat is well behind.

Pat: Assume Leiter is 1-1, Rocker is 1-2, who should Detroit take at 1-3? One of the HS SS, right? Lawler?
Keith Law: They should probably wait until July to decide, but Lawlar and Hill are the best choices right now.

Mike: Do you think Danny Jansen still has a shot to be an average regular? I’m excited about Kirk, but if he’s starting, that’s sort of it for Jansen, no?
Keith Law: I’m leaning towards no on Jansen. No history of durability, for one major reason.

Guest: Who are the best local players? Lonnie White?
Keith Law: Quite a few – Benny Montgomery, Solometo, Petty are all pretty close to me.
Keith Law: Black, if Lehigh opens its doors.

Jeff: Political prediction: do the Democrats “amend” the filibuster rules in some way to pass much needed legislation to combat the voter suppression going on in red states?
Keith Law: I sure as hell hope so, because you know the Republicans would have zero hesitation in doing so if it suited them.

Thomas: I’m a bit surprised to see Hajjar being mocked in the first round some places despite having close to twenty total college innings. Was he considered a legit draft prospect out of high school?
Keith Law: He’s not a first-rounder right now. That’s absurd. He could be one by July – I’m not going even hazard an opinion on that – but people saying he’s going in the first round are just making shit up.
Keith Law: Everyone’s a draft expert now.

Jake: Comparing the offspeed pitches from Leiter and Rocker – more that the Leiter’s curve is just that good or that Rocker’s slider may not have the same success in professional baseball?
Keith Law: Rocker’s slider is great against college bats, but multiple scouts told me they don’t think it’s going to be the same sort of weapon in pro ball.

Rob: At this point in his career, do you see Michael Chavis as having the ability to be an average every day player or is he a bench bat at best?
Keith Law: Bench guy more likely.

Drew: Do you believe that the Republican part is truly fracturing? I certainly hope so and the divisions do seem to be real and somewhat insurmountable for a rational human. But every time over the last 4-5 that I’ve gotten that feeling of “ah, this is where it end” I end up feeling foolish for believing it.
Keith Law: Oh I don’t think so. I think they’re quite happy with their newfound cohesion.

TomBruno23: I believe you were a Yankees fan growing up. Was Mattingly your favorite player? Any under the radar deep cut favorite players?
Keith Law: Willie Randolph was my favorite.

Patrick: Could Chris Rodriguez sneak into the Angels bullpen by the end of the season? He looked filthy in his spring debut
Keith Law: He has never pitched above A-ball and has 9 innings in the last three years.
Keith Law: Sure, teams do stupid stuff all the time, but you’d have to lay 1000-to-1 odds against a kid with his history getting time in the majors this year.

ProjectHanyo: I know this is gonna be a guy not on your list and more of a maybe top 5 round guy, but what have you heard about Ryan Bliss of Auburn? Thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Exactly – rounds 3-5 sort of guy, scouts may love him, can’t play short and doesn’t have real power.

Dougie Fresh: Andrew Stevenson a league average regular?
Keith Law: Platoon guy.

Important spring update: Taylor Rogers just yelled “It’s a spring training game, come on man” to home plate umpire Manny Gonzalez after getting squeezed like five times in six pitches.
Keith Law: Good for Rogers.

Ben: So… Dylan Crews is pretty good, huh?
Keith Law: We should probably hold off until LSU plays someone decent. They beat the hell out of Nicholls, Youngstown St, and Southern the last five games.

Mike: It seems like a lot of A’s fans are perpetually excited about Lazarito being a future star, but seems like a bit of a long shot to me. What do you think?
Keith Law: Zero shot.

Drew: The Twins having their AAA affiliate 10 miles away in St. Paul is pretty cool as a Twin Cities resident but it actually feels like it would offer some real opportunity for the Twins brass. Do you think they push more players that might have otherwise been in AA up to AAA? Or is this as dumb as I’m starting feel like it is as I close in on the end of my question?
Keith Law: Could be a good business decision but not a good baseball one.

Matt: You were high on Max Pentcost right? What happened to him?
Keith Law: Was I? I feel like I was a little lighter on his bat, but the truth is he just got hurt, a lot, and we’ll never know if he was any good.

Tom: Hey Keith, have you had a chance to spend any time at the Delaware beaches? Any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law: Really loved the Station in Lewes. Haven’t spent much time down there overall though.

Harry: Apologies if you have addressed this already, but what led you to leave Jud Fabian off of the top 30?
Keith Law: He can’t hit a breaking ball. Guys his age with that issue don’t go in the first round much, if at all, any more. Kam Misner is a good comparison – an SEC player who got off to a huge start, fell off when conference play began, and went in the comp round. Anfernee Grier was similar too.

Drew: Lewis Thorpe is in the best shape of his life by all accounts. If he’s back at 92-93 does that make him an appealing option for the Twins when Matt Shoemaker gets hurt?
Keith Law: Sounds like he’s in a better place mentally too. I think he’s at least a back-end starter if his velocity is back to where it was years ago, pre-TJ.

Aaron C.: I know baseball is BACK when my A’s-leaning newsfeed is filled with “Buddy Reed’s Done It Again” headlines. Jesus, people.
Keith Law: I know we’re a little more accustomed to fringe guys – Max Muncy comes to mind – changing overnight and becoming stars, but yeah, I’ll believe in Buddy Reed’s bat when he does this in regular season games. He’s a great athlete, 7 run, 7 glove, with some power, but his swing has always been a problem.

Justin: Do you think MLB has a full season lockout next year ?
Keith Law: I hope not but I think it’s a real possibility.

Guest: What’s the next project for you at the Athletic with the prospects overview complete?
Keith Law: Draft stuff, a couple of new feature ideas, and some labor commentary.

Claudio: What do you see in Braden Shewmake? Is he an everyday MLB shortstop and potential replacement for Dansby, utility guy, AAAA?
Keith Law: He was on my top 100.

Dan: Does Ronny Mauricio stick at SS?
Keith Law: Yes, no doubt.

Chris: Do you have a type of prospect that you find harder to scout than the others? Or is there a type of prospect that is more likely to “fool” scouts because they’re difficult to project?
Keith Law: Catchers are very hard to evaluate as amateurs. The hit tool is the hardest tool for hitters, command for pitchers.

TomBruno23: How long are we going today? I have a meeting in an hour and want to get a walk in while it is 65 outside. Asking for myself.
Keith Law: Till about 3:15 ET. Had to start late because I was recording something for my next podcast.

Dan: Any thoughts on NBA Top Shot and how MLB could get into the virtual collectable space?
Keith Law: I think that space is ridiculous. You don’t own a digital “collectible.”

Guest: In 2021, is there a phrase that is supposed to imply intelligence but in fact signals the exact opposite more than “I did my own research?”
Keith Law: Nope. That just means they have access to the internet, and no capacity to distinguish real from bogus information.

Robbie: Hi Keith. Any sense as to MLB/Manfred’s reaction/response to the Callaway, Porter, Ellis situations. MLB seem to have been mostly silent to date. Would think MLB has a role to play in expunging this behaviour from the sport through fines, penalties, suspensions etc. to players/clubs. Are you hearing that anything is in the works/being contemplated at the MLB level?
Keith Law: I know for a fact there are multiple MLB investigations ongoing.

JR: I guess I shouldn’t be surprised, but I am a little that the Suess estate’s personal decision to stop selling certain books has turned into “Biden and the Dems have cancelled Dr. Suess” lol. They made the decision on their own (and a very cynical person may even wonder if they did it in part to drive up book sales)
Keith Law: I’m more amazed at how many people on the left seem to see this as actual concern over “cancel culture” rather than obvious pandering to the base. It’s the same as the bills requiring trans athletes compete in the sexes they were assigned at birth. It’s not a real problem. Nobody actually cares about this issue. But it buys headlines, and appeals to the Neanderthal base.

addoeh: Split loyalties seemingly for you next weekend for Six Nations. Will you cheer for Italy or Wales?
Keith Law: Italy has no chance in the 6N, so it’ll be easy to root for Wales.

Dan: Do you like backgammon?
Keith Law: Never got into it.

Don: Is Jake Burger a guy again after losing 40lbs?
Keith Law: I’m optimistic that he’s going to turn back into a prospect this year.

Anon: On a scale of 1-10, just how threatened is our democracy? The proliferation of social media disinformation, stupid people generally, and naked attempts at voter suppression have me afraid. Am I overreacting?
Keith Law: At least a 7. The media – and not just right-wing media, but most mainstream media – are complicit. Why are people who encouraged the Big Lie appearing on my television? Who the fuck is booking these people?

TomBruno23: Any thoughts on DC as a 51st state?
Keith Law: It is absurd that they’re not one. The same for Puerto Rico. Why should those American citizens lack representation in Congress? Because they’re mostly people of color?

Chris: Tatis, Soto, and Acuna – Between their actual baseball ability and the way they play the game, have we had a more enjoyable trio of young stars in recent memory? And that’s before you add in more established guys like Trout, Betts, Baez, and so many others!
Keith Law: MLB should be marketing the hell out of those guys already.
Keith Law: I’m sure we’ve had comparable trios, but those are the guys we have right now. They should be household names.

Frank: What are a few great baseball documentaries you’ve watched?
Keith Law: Pelotero.

Trevor: KLaw – Appreciate the draft prospect write-ups. Happy to see Bachman high on your list as a former Miami (OH) grad myself. No question just in agreement that the teaching of critical thinking to kids would vastly improve the educational system
Keith Law: It should be a major part of any state or local education reform.

Matt: I know this is a subjective question and open to interpretation, but if you had to pick the team that has the least amount of hope of being a consistent winner in the next decade, which would you pick?
Keith Law: I feel like Colorado is in the worst shape, because they don’t seem to have a clear direction for the major-league roster, the farm system is below the median, and that is the hardest MLB environment in which to build a team. They have to be 10% better than everyone else.

Guest: Seuly Matias has a ____ chance of being Joey Gallo
Keith Law: Zero.

Jason: How long until the other teams catch up to San Diego’s discovery of the market inefficiency in spending money to win?
Keith Law: Sssh. It’s still a secret.

Thomas: I might be one of those rare few people that actually read your prospect stuff entirely to apply to my fantasy league. I’ve won a handful of times so thank you for all your help. Well worth the subscription. Whose bat would you prefer long term, Jazz Chisholm or Brandon Lowe?
Keith Law: Chisholm has way more risk but way more upside. Your choice.

Alex A.: In Atlanta, 3rd appears to be the only position of any significant concern in the near term (assuming one of the two catching prospects hits). Do you see a scenario in which Riley becomes a serviceable regular, or is the future Shewmake/outside acquisition?
Keith Law: Shewmake could end up there, or stay at SS, but I’ve never really bought Riley’s bat and we now have a year-plus of data showing he’s not able to hit enough to be a regular. His bat speed has always been an issue.

That guy: with regular season baseball still about a month away and this cold weather I’m looking for something new to play. Whats your favorite 2 player board game?
Keith Law: Favorite of all time is Jaipur. Would also recommend 7 Wonders Duel and Patchwork.

Greg: What player on a 10+ year contract would you bet is the first to leave their team? Most likely to finish their contractt?
Keith Law: I am all in on the Padres’ plan, but if I’m being realistic, the odds of both of their 10+ year guys staying in San Diego for the durations of their contracts are probably low.

Jase: What’s the best way to address competitive and/or financial imbalance in the game? Booting certain owners? How would they legislate that? Cap and floor? Or just shrug and accept it?
Keith Law: Tie revenue-sharing payments to some form of competitiveness. If you lose 110 games, you don’t get any cash.

Rob: Kyle Wright or Bryse Wilson? Who do you think has a better year
Keith Law: Leaning Wilson but not that confident in the pick.

Don: Is Andrew Vaughn’s lack of power so far in pro ball a concern?
Keith Law: He played for three months. After a full college spring.

Fernando G: Hey Keith, Hope you’re doing well. Do you have any insight into the front office culture across MLB right now? I am interested in getting started in the industry, but worry if the culture is more ‘traditional’ (i.e. tattoos and piercings are frowned upon). Sorry if that’s a bit of a loaded question, but it’s something I have been curious about and didn’t know where to look for any useful info on it. A traditional culture wouldn’t be a complete turnoff for me, but it would certainly be a negative that I would like to be able to take into account beforehand. Thanks!
Keith Law: If tattoos were frowned upon you’d never see a former pro player in any front office job.

Pat: Many of the local media around Detroit are saying Tigers need to take a college player at 1-3, so the timeline matches up closer with the “Big 5” prospects that are all supposed to hit within the next yr-18 mos..that has to be some of the worst reasoning ever, right? Pass up a potential star SS like Lawler because he may not debut until 2024-25?
Keith Law: Local media are probably not in a good position to make that call. Not that that ever stopped anyone. You take the best player available, period.

Jon G: Have draft evaluators (scouts, higher ups, public analysts) begun to incorporate seam-shifted wake into their lexicon as it relates to draft prospects? Would that make any meaningful difference from simply describing “late movement”? Has the concept as demonstrated changed the way you value certain pitch types?
Keith Law: Scouts don’t evaluate that … I mean, how could they? You can’t see it with your eyes. That’s why we have the technology. But scouts can see how hitters react, or how a pitch breaks in an unexpected way. SSW is just the hot new term – not saying there’s anything wrong or untrue about it, but it’s been in a few articles this week and now it’s the new toy. (EDIT: Just to be clear, I’m not diminishing SSW, or anyone writing about it, at all, but to argue against a sort of recency bias in ideas – the last new thing you heard isn’t necessarily the best thing, or even true. To answer the remainder of Jon G.’s question, I think SSW is different from late movement, or even movement; it describes a cause and an effect, with the effect a specific type of movement and the associated deception.)

Guest: I badly wanted the Yankees to draft Jack Leiter in 2018 (no offense to Volpe). How has he developed in the last 2 years?) Higher velocity, better command and sharper breaking stuff?
Keith Law: All of that. Filled out some too.

Tom: Is there any chance of Jon Gray becoming anything more if he were to move outta coors field?
Keith Law: I think so. Would love to see it.

Mike M: Any plans to make it to Bridgewater to see the new Yankees AA affiliate?
Keith Law: Of course, once it’s safe to do so.

Drew: Boy, the longer Cuomo stays in office despite his incompetence on COVID and multiple harassment allegations, the more he looks like a Democratic mini-Trump, huh? I feel like we should really not emulate the “shamelessness as a political superpower” on the left.
Keith Law: Agreed. I’m glad at least some Democrats have called for his resignation.

JD: What should be looking for in Andy Pages’ game this year?
Keith Law: Contact.

JD: Your writeup of Matt Allan was pretty much all positive, but I gather he’s missing something he needs to be a true ace. What’s that?
Keith Law: I said in the writeup that his fastball plays below its velocity. That’s his main drawback. He’s going to have to work more with his offspeed stuff than most starters.

Steve: You think Mondesi can be a star?
Keith Law: Career .284 OBP, .292 in the last two seasons if you want to give him a pass on the early call-ups. He has never developed an adequate approach at the plate, and I doubt he ever will. He can still be valuable because he does so many other things, but hitters with neither patience nor power have limited ceilings.

Green New Deal: I have a hard time seeing how we’re going to convert to renewables at the scale needed without more investment in nuclear energy. The main arguments are expense and waste, but from the cost perspective, it’s a drop in the bucket compared to potential GDP loss from more natural disasters and overall instability.
Keith Law: Agreed. Unfortunately, the green energy crowd tends to be anti-nuclear because availability bias leads them to believe that it is more dangerous than it actually is.

Frank: Any reason why you do not typically include recent j -2 signings such as diaz and martinez in teams’ top 20 reports/other notables ?
Keith Law: Because they’re 16.

Adam: Would you give Pache more time at the Alt Site/AAA and trot Ender out there or start him in the Majors then re evaluate come may?
Keith Law: I’d play him now and get the benefit of his defense, but I won’t argue if they want him to go to AAA to work on pitch recognition.
Keith Law: Once AAA starts, that is.

John: Why bother keeping the filibuster anymore? If protecting voting rights isn’t important enough to remove that nothing will ever be and unfortunately only one side sees that as a problem.
Keith Law: My question is why the filibuster ever existed. It seems antithetical to our system of government.

Nolan: I know it’s crazy, but I find myself hopeful about Anderson Espinoza. Seems like starter is out of the question, but could he be an impactful bullpen piece?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s that crazy and I would like to see if he can start. Few guys do after two TJs, but there have been exceptions.

Mac: Was surprised Alex Binelas made the top 30. He’s looked horrible at the plate and they’re starting to play him at 1B more often because he’s been just as bad at 3B.
Keith Law: I said in the piece that he’s gotten off to a bad start, but the rankings aren’t just based on this year. He may very well end up in the second round or later, though.

Jason: Re: Puerto Rico, it’s unclear whether they actually want statehood. In 2012, a bare majority wanted to even change its current status (and then was split between free association, statehood, and independence), and in 2020 statehood barely received a majority over independence (“no” meant a commission to determine the next steps toward independence)
Keith Law: That’s not really true; a majority of PR residents want statehood, with three nonbinding votes in the last 15 years showing that, but opponents have done a good job of casting doubt on that. Just another episode in our country’s long and shameful history of disenfranchising nonwhite voters.

Steve: How far along are you playing My City? We’re 4 episodes in, so Chapter 2, and enjoying it so far.
Keith Law: We hit the gold mines, which I think is about halfway? It’s fun. A nice light game we can play 2-3 times in a sitting. Put it aside for a while as my wife was extremely busy with work and I was plowing through prospect rankings.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat. Thank you all so much for reading and for all of your questions. I’ll try to keep these chats going weekly now that we have a season, depending on my travel commitments once those get starter. Stay safe, and go get vaccinated as soon as you can!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ March 4, 2021
→ By keith

Pieces of a Woman.

Vanessa Kirby stole so many scenes in the first two seasons of The Crown, often overshadowing her co-star Claire Foy, who played the actual Queen of England. As the tragic (and later tragicomic) figure Princess Margaret, she was by turns charming, fashionable, jealous, and, as in Margaret’s real life, heartbroken and betrayed. I’d seen her previously in the short-lived BBC series The Hour, but didn’t recognize her when I saw her in 2020’s Mr. Jones or when she took on the role of Margaret.

Pieces of a Woman represents her critical breakthrough, as her command performance as a woman grieving the loss of a baby during a home birth gone awry earned her the Best Actress Award at the Venice Film Festival in 2020, a Golden Globe nomination for the same, and, most likely, an Oscar nomination as well. The movie is uneven, and the resolution of the story feels more like fantasy than reality on multiple levels, but Kirby is a knockout in this role and makes this arduous film well worth the time investment.

Kirby plays Martha, a very pregnant woman whose husband, Sean (Shia LaBoeuf), is a blue-collar worker and clearly not respected by her mother (Ellen Burstyn). Martha and Sean have chosen a home birth, but their midwife isn’t available when labor begins, so they call another midwife their original one recommended. The new midwife, Eva (Molly Parker), seems a little overmatched when things start to go wrong, and after it seems like they’re out of the woods and their baby girl is born, she starts to turn blue and stops breathing. Martha and Sean are both left to grieve their loss, but both Sean and Martha’s mother become invested in the criminal case against Eva, pulling them away from Martha when she needs them, and the family dynamics become even more complicated when Martha’s cousin Suzanne (Sarah Snook) is the prosecuting attorney.

The film opens with its best scene, a 24-minute single-shot depiction of the labor, delivery, and death of the baby that is intense not just because you know how it’s going to end, but because it’s so slow relative to most films. This is a more detailed depiction of childbirth than you get in most films, and it’s only to the movie’s benefit, especially because it shows the physical labor (no pun intended) required of the mother and thus further underlines both the level of Martha’s anguish and the emotional distance she feels from everyone around her, including her husband, when their baby dies.

Kirby is just powerful in this role, even in grief; there’s no lower gear anywhere in the performance, regardless of the mood or situation. She’s especially good in scenes with her mother – and Burstyn, who seems unlikely to get an Oscar nod, is also excellent – who seems completely unable to understand her daughter in multiple conversations. She’s also good in scenes with LaBoeuf, who is … fine. He’s received praise for his performance, or at least did before FKA Twigs accused him of emotional and physical abuse; I couldn’t stand him in American Honey, either, and I just couldn’t find him credible here, but I concede that it’s difficult to separate the actor from the character in this case. At least here, we rarely see him without Kirby, who is very much the emotional center of the movie.

The ending, however, doesn’t live up to the previous 90-plus minutes. We end up in a courtroom, where the case is resolved with something out of Law & Order – well-acted, but, still, unrealistic and maudlin – that is an ostensible attempt to show the end of Martha’s emotional arc. I don’t buy it, because it’s not something we would see in the real world, and because Martha’s arc would have no real conclusion. My lay understanding of the psychology of grief is that it doesn’t go away; it may fade, or just be blunted by time, but it persists. That point leads me to wonder if the final scene is meant to be real, fantasy, or just ambiguous, which is something I’ll leave you to answer in the comments if you’re so inclined.

There’s more than enough in Pieces of a Woman to recommend it, even with the flawed ending and my personal distaste for LaBoeuf. The opening scene is masterful, and I imagine people will refer to it for years the way they did The Player‘s opening scene. Burstyn will probably miss out on what would be her seventh Oscar nomination, especially with Jodie Foster winning a Golden Globe for The Mauritanian, but she’s superb in a pivotal role, a better foil for Kirby in character and in ability. And, if nothing else has convinced you, watch it for Kirby, who may not win in a stacked Best Actress category, but did deliver one of the best performances of 2020.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2020 best actress nominees, 2020 movies

→ March 3, 2021
→ By keith

Music update, February 2021.

My first draft prospect ranking for 2021 is now up for The Athletic subscribers.

I didn’t post a playlist for January, as that month didn’t give me anywhere near enough new tracks even if I’d accepted that I’d have to make the playlist shorter than usual, but now, with two-plus months since my last music post, we’re back to normal again. Three great albums have helped kick off 2021, with a few stragglers from 2020, and a slew of singles heralding upcoming LPs from artists new and old. As usual, I’ve pushed the heavier material to the back of the list. You can access the playlist here if you can’t see the widget below.

Kid Kapichi – Working Man’s Town. This Time Next Year, the debut record from this Hastings quartet, sounds like something Alex Turner might have cooked up if he wanted to do something grittier and more abrasive. The record is brilliant, witty, and surprisingly full of hooks, featuring this track, “Sardines,” and “Don’t Kiss Me (I’m Infected).”

Arlo Parks – Hope. Parks’ debut album Collapsed in Sunbeams dropped in January, featuring all of the great singles she’d released in the preceding eighteen months, including “Hurt,” “Green Eyes,” “Black Dog,” and “Caroline.” This track has more of her gorgeous vocals, sharp lyrics, and soulful, jazzy (but not jazz) backing music, making it the best of the new songs on the record.

Gum Country – Somewhere. As the year came to a merciful close, I found more and more best-of lists to peruse, including some great genre-specific ones over at Paste. Gum Country’s debut album Somewhere took the last spot (that is, #50) on Paste‘s top 50 albums of 2020 list, and it’s worthy of the praise, combining elements of power pop, indie rock, and psychedelia, like Velocity Girl met My Bloody Valentine by way of early Mercury Rev.

Black Honey – Believer. Black Honey have been among my favorite indie pop/rock bands for at least three years now, and they put out two songs since my last playlists went up, this straight-up pop track and the much harsher “Disinfect,” although even that song has an undeniable hook.

HAERTS – Shivering. HAERTS’ third album Dream Nation will be out on March 12^th, and I can’t wait, even though I think you could argue their sound hasn’t really changed in the nine years since they first appeared.

The Lottery Winners feat. Frank Turner – Start Again. I missed the Lottery Winners’ self-titled debut album last March, but it’s fun, hooky indie-pop, and their sound works really well with Turner’s vocals here.

Royal Blood – Typhoons. I’m cautiously optimistic that Royal Blood are going to correct course a little bit and get closer to the heavy hooks of their debut album, although nothing will ever touch “Out of the Black.” This song really grooves with more bottom than a good splitter.

FRITZ – Jan 1. FRITZ’s sophomore album Pastel feels like something out of the mid-90s, kind of Lotion meets early Lush, fuzzy, reverbed-out, guitar-driven indie-pop with a coming-of-age theme to it.

Griff – Black Hole. This is Griff’s eleventh single, according to Wikipedia, although she has yet to release a full album, although I suppose we can forgive her since she just turned 20 in January. This was the first track of the pop singer/songwriter’s to cross my radar, but the hook in this chorus – “there’s a big black hole where my heart used to be” – is a hell of an earworm.

Allie X – GLAM! That intro sounds like I’m about to play a video game … 15-20 years ago, maybe? But then the singer/model Allie X starts with a whoa-oh-oh-oh that would have fit in on pop radio in 1985. I mean, listen to this chorus. How is this song not already an enormous hit?

Noname – Rainforest. I confess Noname’s laconic delivery has never done much for me, but the syncopated beat and her somewhat faster tempo here caught my ear in a way none of her previous tracks had.

Potty Mouth – Let Go. Speaking of Velocity Girl, I feel like this Massachusetts all-girl trio is sort of VG’s spiritual heirs with their sunny power-pop tracks, although I think their lyrics slipped a grade here.

Django Django feat. Charlotte Gainsbourg – Waking Up. The third new album of 2021 that’s likely to show up on my year-end list – although I’d rank it third of those three – is the Djangos’ fourth album Glowing in the Dark, which has this surprising collaboration with erstwhile Lars von Trier muse Gainsbourg.

YONAKA – Seize the Power. This Brighton quartet, led by the charismatic singer Theresa Jarvis, plan to release their sophomore album this year, with this first single a slight departure from the style of Don’t Wait Til Tomorrow.

King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard – East West Link. This prolific Australian prog/psych rock band just released L.W., their 17^th album in just eight and a half years. I assume the title refers to the vaguely “eastern” sounds – I’d say more south Asian, or even the southwestern part of Asia, but I’m no expert in music from either region – which sort of give this whole thing a Physical Graffiti vibe.

Greentea Peng – Nah It Ain’t the Same. Peng’s debut album MAN MADE is due out this summer, and I’m at least curious after this lead single, which has elements of hip-hop, soul, funk, andthe sort of Thai jazz brought to the mainstream by Khruangbin.

Freddie Gibbs – Winter in America. Gibbs is an unusual but inspired choice to cover Gil-Scott Heron and Brian Jackson’s 1975 track, which originally appeared on The First Minute of a New Day. This cover is part of a partnership between ESPN’s The Undefeated and Hollywood Records and appeared on an EP called Black History Always – Music For The Movement Vol. 2.

Iceage – Vendetta. This Danish post-post-punk band’s fifth album Seek Shelter is due out May 7^th, with this tense, sludgy track the lead single.

Death from Above 1979 – One + One. Driven by a guitar riff to make Josh Homme blush, this song also has a real groove to it, like a lost track from the Mark Ronson-produced QotSA album.

Gojira – Born for One Thing. I think Gojira is the most interesting metal band going right now, as they’ve gotten more progressive and creative with each album, moving from straight death metal to more technical material to their current hybrid of thrash, prog, and even “groove” metal sounds. I never got into Pantera, but I can hear the influence of Diamond Darrell on the guitarwork here as I did on Magma.

Angelus Apatrida – Bleed the Crown. These Spanish thrash stalwarts released their self-titled seventh album late last year, showing a strong influence from both Bay Area thrash and the giants of Teutonic metal like Kreator and Destruction, although the vocals are mostly death growls and in many cases overtook the pleasure of the guitar riffs.

Memoriam – Failure to Comply. Memoriam are often tagged as straight death metal because of Karl Willetts’ (ex-Bolt Thrower) guttural vocals, but they have more in common with traditional thrash than current extreme metal. This track is directly inspired by the BLM protests that took place across most of last summer in the US, as Willetts has a friend who participated in and recorded one event, ending up in jail and receiving community service (in his telling) for protesting.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2021 in music, alternative, hip-hop, indie, metal, Music, progressive metal, thrash

→ March 2, 2021
→ By keith

Judas and the Black Messiah.

Daniel Kaluuya’s Golden Globes win might bring some more attention to the superb Judas and the Black Messiah, available now on HBO Max, a biopic that focuses on the final months of Fred Hampton’s life by focusing equally on the man who betrayed him. It’s a different angle than a more typical biography, and I can see an argument that it gives Hampton short shrift, but the two lead performances absolutely drive this movie.

Fred Hampton (Kaluuya) was the head of the Illinois chapter of the Black Panther Party when Edgar Hoover’s FBI decided he was a threat to the nation and, with the help of the members of the Chicago Police Department who weren’t busy assaulting protesters, executed him in his bed while his pregnant girlfriend listened from the next room. The FBI was able to do this because one of Hampton’s lieutenants, William O’Neal (LaKeith Stanfield), was an FBI informant who ratted out Hampton to avoid a felony charge of car theft. O’Neal not only provided information to his FBI handler, Roy Mitchell (Jesse Plemons), but slipped a sedative into Hampton’s drink the night of the execution so he’d be unable to flee or fight back.

Judas and the Black Messiah follows O’Neal’s story from his arrest to Hampton’s murder, bookending the film with footage from Eyes on the Prize II, in which O’Neal gave his only public comment on his involvement in Hampton’s assassination. The narrative focus shifts away from O’Neal to Hampton as needed, giving more time for Hampton’s character to develop, and more time for Kaluuya to show how a magnetic speaker like Hampton could develop such a strong following in such a short period of time – he first became active in social justice movements at 18, and the FBI had him executed when he was 21. (Kaluuya and Stanfield are both much older than the men they portray.)

Stanfield is the lead actor here, at least by how the film’s producers have submitted the pair’s names for awards, but most of the film’s strongest moments belong to Kaluuya. It’s unsurprising, given his superb performances in Get Out and Widows, but he is an unbelievably compelling Hampton whenever he’s speaking to any sort of crowd, friendly or hostile. Kaluuya was positively creepy in Widows as a remorseless, vindictive killer, and here he channels that same implacable calm in any situation, such as when Hampton speaks to a group of Appalachian whites, transplants in Chicago, who rallied under the Confederate flag but also shared some progressive views with the Panthers (a meeting, and subsequent alliance, that occurred in real life).

Meanwhile, despite a strong performance by Stanfield, the script doesn’t give us enough insight into why O’Neal was willing to betray Hampton, to work with the FBI and against his own community, even when he gets clear evidence that the Panthers were creating positive change. His initial willingness to sign up as an informant, avoiding what the film says would have been six years in prison, is easy to grasp, but as the demands on him grow, and he’s more entrenched within the Panther organization, why wouldn’t he balk? Where’s the hesitation beyond what the script gives us in a phone call or two where he threatens to walk away and then changes his mind when reminded of the charges hanging over his head. Stanfield is very good at portraying anguish, speaking through clenched jaws with his head slightly bowed, but there’s something lacking in the character’s portrayal here – although even the actual interview O’Neal gave shortly before his death (the same day that Eyes on the Prize II aired) fails to provide a satisfactory explanation, as he seems unwilling to confront the consequences of his own actions. It’s at least plausible that director Shaka King and writers Keith and Kenneth Lucas made an active choice to leave O’Neal’s character vague because of the paucity of information on his motivations and feelings after the fact.

Between this film and the contemporaneous The Trial of the Chicago 7, it’s a strong year for ACAB in movies (or perhaps ACCAB, since both films involve gross misconduct by Chicago police), which speaks to much of the present mood in large portions of the country even though both events took place over 50 years ago. The idea of our own government executing a 21-year-old citizen in his sleep, where the police fired 90 shots and the Panthers in the apartment fired just one, should still shock and horrify us, and Judas and the Black Messiah doesn’t shy away from the corruption and police-state authoritarianism that allowed these events to take place – and the men behind them to walk away unscathed. It’s infuriating without feeling manipulative, unlike Sorkin’s film, because Judas’ script hews far more closely to the true story. It’s a film-world crime that The Trial of the Chicago 7 got a Best Picture – Drama nomination at the Globes, and a screenplay win, when Judas received neither, something I hope is remedied when the Oscars come out with their own slate of nominees in two weeks, with Kaluuya also deserving of a nod. Judas is an imperfect film in a few ways – I could have done without some of the inside-the-FBI stuff too – but between Kaluuya’s performance and the sheer power of the story behind it, it’s one of the year’s best.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2020 best cinematography nominees, 2020 best original screenplay nominees, 2020 best picture nominees, 2020 best supporting actor nominees, 2020 movies, african-american history, highly recommended

→ February 27, 2021
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 2/27/21.

Nothing new for subscribers to the Athletic this week now that my entire offseason prospects package has run. I held a Klawchat on Thursday.

Over at Paste, I reviewed Canvas, a new card-drafting and card-crafting game with some of the best artwork I’ve ever seen on a board game. It’s so visually appealing that you’ll want to play it more.

On this week’s episode of the Keith Law Show, I spoke with Blue Jays VP of International Scouting Andrew Tinnish about their loaded farm system and what it’s like to scout players in Latin America, including ones as young as 13. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify.

For more of me, you can subscribe to my free email newsletter. Also, you can still buy The Inside Game and Smart Baseball anywhere you buy books; the paperback edition of The Inside Game will be out in April.

And now, the links…

Longreads first: BuzzFeed has the inside story of how Mark Zuckerberg and other Facebook execs enable and encourage right-wing demagogues who push misinformation and hate on their site. Facebook is really trash.
Texas regulators served electricity providers rather than Texas, leaving the state’s grid vulnerable to the type of disaster that left most of the state in darkness and freezing temperatures last week.
An LA Times investigation reveals corruption and self-dealing inside the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the organization that runs and votes for the Golden Globes (coming up tomorrow night). Of note is that more than half of the electorate was flown to visit the set of Emily in Paris at the studio’s expense, and the frivolous show ended up with two nominations. Speaking of which, my friend Tim Grierson, whose new book This is How You Make a Movie comes out on March 9^th, listed the worst Golden Globe nomination in each of the last twenty years.
Sports Illustrated‘s Steph Apstein examines whether the baseball was juiced in 2020.
Also from BuzzFeed, Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC) has a long history of sexually and verbally harassing women. Here’s my prediction: It won’t matter. His party will close ranks around him.
This 2009 piece from author Simon Winchester, “Take Nothing, Leave Nothing,” the story of how and why he has been banned for life from returning to the island of Tristan da Cunha, is weird and lovely and speaks to a certain type of wanderlust that I feel like I truly understand.
I discussed optimism bias in The Inside Game, and ProPublica has a piece on why it impeded pandemic response plans.
If you live in Delaware, please consider signing this petition asking our state government to enact paid medical and family leave.
The Washington Post profiles the doctors and nurses who spend their limited non-work time fighting coronavirus and anti-vaccine disinformation online.
The Republican Party has started a fresh round of voter suppression efforts across the country.
The opposition leader in Georgia was arrested in a “violent raid” on his party’s headquarters. I’m referring to the small nation in the Caucasus, but would you be surprised if Gov. Brian Kemp authorized this?
Judas and the Black Messiah is getting some well-deserved Oscar buzz. The film adheres to the true story of how the FBI and the Chicago Police assassinated Fred Hampton, including how Hampton rallied a group of white southerners who carried the Confederate flag to work with the Black Panthers.
A Pennsylvania bird-watcher snapped a now-viral photo of a cardinal that is intersex, meaning that it has physical characteristics of both male and female birds. The condition, called bilateral gynandromorphism, means that the cardinal is male on one side of its body, from red feathers to one testis, and female on the other. I wonder which bathroom Marjorie Taylor Greene thinks it should use.
My editor at Paste, Garrett Martin, ranked the five best episodes of the Muppet Show. I’d agree with three (Moreno, Martin, and Burnett), and don’t remember the other two that well, but would include John Cleese and Zero Mostel.
I linked to this in chat this week but it’s worth reposting: The reopening of a detention center for migrant children is not a return to Trump’s xenophobic, inhuman immigration policies. We still shouldn’t be bombing in the Middle East, though.
The IceCube neutrino detector in Antarctica picked up a neutrino from a star that was destroyed 700 million years ago.
Illinois became the first state to eliminate cash bail.
CPAC, with a slate full of voter-fraud charlatans and seditionists, cancelled a scheduled appearance by the anti-Semitic QAnon adherent Young Pharaoh. The convention’s actual theme this year is “America Uncancelled.”
Smith College found itself embroiled in a conservative-fueled nontroversy last week, but they issued a scathing, evidence-based response that their critics, like Bari Weiss, have ignored.
George Will wrote of the tough choices facing Pres. Biden as he tries to hold a hard line with China, including continuing the policy that began under Trump of labeling the Chinese genocide of Uighur Muslims as such.
Board game news: Cryptozoic has a Kickstarter up for a board game based on Batman: The Dark Knight Returns.
Another Kickstarter is up for a second edition of Orconomics, itself a reimplementation of an earlier, self-published game called Economicus.
I don’t know much about the game itself but Brew, coming in June from Pandasaurus, looks amazing.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: baseball, board game news, coronavirus, links, longreads, science, stick to baseball, the swamp

→ February 26, 2021
→ By keith

The Nest.

Writer-director Sean Durkin’s first feature film, 2011’s Martha Marcy May Marlene, was a marvelous, gripping story with a star turn from a then-unknown Elizabeth Olsen – or, if she was known, it was for being a younger sister – that seemed to herald great things for Durkin once he had more resources available for another project. He finally returned to the screen in 2020 with The Nest, another extremely taut, well-acted, psychological thriller, returning again to themes of emotional manipulation and broken people, this time in a nuclear family where the couple are frantically trying to ignore the cracks in their marriage’s foundation.

Set in the 1980s, which is evident from the music to the clothes to the hairstyles, The Nest follows Roy (Jude Law) and Allison (Carrie Coon) as they relocate from New York City to the English countryside, where Roy believes he’ll find new business opportunities with a previous employer. They move into a giant Victorian house in Surrey that’s far too big for them and their two children, but it becomes evident that it is another symptom of Roy’s penchant for magical thinking and aspiration. The move isn’t for new opportunities, but because he’s broke, as Allison learns when construction on the stables for her horse-training business comes to an abrupt halt, and the lucrative deal he thinks he’s going to strike with his old firm turns out to be another pipe dream. The illusory world Roy has built around himself begins to crumble, while Allison tires of pretending everything is fine and becomes increasingly contemptuous of him, while her teenaged daughter, adrift and also recognizing an opportunity as teenagers do, rebels against them and the changes they’ve forced upon her.

The Nest is a movie of privilege, not about its exercise, but about its mere existence. Roy and Allison worry about things like status and appearances because they can – somehow, even with his chicanery and extravagance, they still have enough money to support themselves, and send the kids to private school, and, in Allison’s case, to keep a cash box hidden in the house because she knows full well that Roy is unreliable when it comes to money. The wounds here are self-inflicted, and we do get some brief glimpses of why as we learn a little of Roy’s and Allison’s histories, so this film is concerned with the suffering we create for ourselves rather than that the world imposes on us – more so if we are poor, or nonwhite, or just outside the circles in which these two people travel.

Coon is a treasure, as always – she was the best part of the one season of The Leftovers I watched – and she gives Allison all of the texture that this three-dimensional character requires. She becomes openly derisive of Roy, but also reckless in her own way, and runs the gauntlet of emotions and moods over the course of the film, notably in her growing unease in this house that they can’t afford and that could hold them and all their possessions many times over. She also takes a small step that emphasizes her independence, or at least her refusal to be dependent on such an unreliable man, that also has the side benefit of embarrassing her husband when it comes to light. My cousin Jude is also quite good as Roy, and certainly convincing as that sort of suave confidence man who is just plausible enough that you can see what Allison may have seen in him, but Coon is the absolute star of this movie, and it’s a shame she’s received so little attention on the awards circuit for it, with just a few nominations from local film critics’ circles.

The Nest, like Durkin’s first film, is a slow burn, and the tension lies mostly beneath the movie’s surface, although there’s more of an overt climax in this story than there was in Martha Marcy May Marlene, and also a less ambiguous conclusion. It’s a more polished work, with stronger characterization and a better story arc, although the first film’s ending played better into the idea of a sort of existential terror that this film evokes but doesn’t entirely drive home. They’re both quiet, simple films, however, in a way that might make them hard to sell to a larger audience, but that draw you in because they have the immodesty of reality, and all the pain and suffering it can bring.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2020 movies, highly recommended, psychological dramas

→ February 25, 2021
→ By keith

Klawchat 2/25/21.

Keith Law: I know there’s got to be a break in the monotony. Klawchat.

Nate: With the lost year of development for many minor league players has there been any talk of pushing Rule 5 eligibility back a year?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard that. It would have to be collectively bargained, and it would be a disaster for minor leaguers. Let’s hope the union stands up for them, even though they’re non-members.

Max G: Hey Keith, thanks for taking the time to do this. You had mentioned (I believe in your last chat) that a factor in you ranked big-name-heavy systems, such as the Tigers, Ordeals, and WSox, where you did was because of their historically poor international programs. What does improving these club’s international scouting look like, and is there any hope for these orgs?
Keith Law: I like the autocorrect of the Orioles as “Ordeals.” I’m sure fans who’ve lived through the last few years would concur. It’s not just one solution for all teams – in Baltimore’s case, it was the previous regime’s choice to eschew that market completely, while in Detroit and Chicago, they tended to avoid the higher-bonus guys, and did not get great results when they did go for the seven-figure players.

xxx(yyy): thoughts on NBA Top Shot? chances we see an MLB version of that same kind of concept?
Keith Law: Had to look this up. I really don’t know anything about this idea. Digital assets aren’t assets. You don’t own the ebooks you think you bought. You’re just leasing them.

Mitchell: What first year players, J2 or 2020 draftees are you most excited to see in person in Sprint Training?
Keith Law: This will be a column in March.

Ben (MN): Have you tried playing any board games with others virtually? If so, any that work well? I’m getting so sick of two player games because my wife beats me all the time.
Keith Law: On gaming sites, yes. Across Zoom, only more social games. I wrote about some for Vulture back in November. https://klaw.me/2HdYUAl

Terry: I patiently waited for your NL Central Top 20 prospects lists to see where Drew Rasmussen was going to land….quickly learning after his name didn’t appear that he lost rookie eligibility (face, meet palm). Thoughts on him?
Keith Law: One-inning reliever. Horrible overuse at Oregon State ended any chance he’d be more.

bROOKS: Matt Thaiss – major leaguer? Bench likely, or every day guy?
Keith Law: Bench ceiling. Not enough bat for every day guy.

Billy: Is Cubs fans dragging of the Ricketts family warranted?
Keith Law: I mean, there are so many reasons…

Stu: Have you heard anything about Verlander’s progress? Best guess: does he pitch in the majors again? He’ll be out of a contract at the end of the season
Keith Law: Oh, he’ll pitch in the majors again. Someone will give him a chance even if he’s throwing 87.
Keith Law: I have no idea how he’s doing.

Duchess: Hey Keith, Pedro Leon seems unique in that he’s a older than many of the international prospects and has some pro experience. Understand that the long layoff introduces a huge variable, but what are the chances he sees a rapid run through the minors and ends up in Houston later in the summer?
Keith Law: He’s really interesting in that he has the tools of a top 50 or even top 25 prospect, is older than the typical J2 signing, but is younger than most of the good Cuban position player prospects who’ve come over (other than Robert, I think). We just have no idea how advanced he is as a hitter because the Serie Nacional has been so bad since the waves of defections began 8-10 years ago.

RobD: Do we really know how valuable it is for prospects to play in real minor league games vs other ways to develop their skills? I often hear about needing more time in game situations – is there really no other way to teach them those things than games? I have been wondering if something like 2-3 games a week plus alternative training ala Driveline might be a more efficient means of development. I know I am colored by my high school baseball days where we’d spend hours on a bus just to play a game where I’d get 4 ABs and a few groundballs hit to me.
Keith Law: I don’t buy that at all. The hardest things to do in baseball involve other players who are trying to do the other hardest things against you – getting hitters out, hitting real pitching.

Andy: How do ratings on the Athletic work, from the writer perspective? If I rate everything as solid, but occasional things as awesome, does that help ratings or is it like Uber, that awesome is the standard and anything below it could be an issue?
Keith Law: No one has ever mentioned those ratings to me.

barbeach: Belated congrats on your nuptials. Wishing you many decades of happiness. Bought Azul to play with the family based on your recommendation…has been great fun as we navigate Covid cabin fever. So thanks. Question: Is this the year Clint Frazier really breaks out?
Keith Law: If he’s healthy, he’ll play and be fine. I don’t think he’s a star because the same swing and miss issues that were there in high school are, as far as I know, still there.

Todd Boss: Texas frozen windmills == root cause of Texas’ power grid failures. Right. At what point does the disingenuity of right wing media become so ridiculous that even the brainwashed masses who watch it call BS?
Keith Law: Never. That will simply never happen. Denialism is too entrenched in American culture, the result of poor public education, income inequality, and our high degree of religiosity compared to other developed nations.

Andy: How long until you feel comfortable going to a game? How long until you feel comfortable taking your family to a game (since there won’t be a vaccine for kids until at least 2022 season?) It’s outdoors, but the yelling and close proximity, makes me hesitant.
Keith Law: I’ll go when I’m vaccinated, or I’ll go if it’s just media and scouts but no fans. I don’t see taking the kids till next year.

JT: Is using Biggio as a stop gap until Austin is ready a perfectly OK solution for the Jays? All of the rumored links to 3B seem to reveal that they get it on Biggio–he’s not a long term starter.
Keith Law: The signing of Semien was the clearest indicator to me that they see what I have always said about Biggio. He shouldn’t be playing every day for a contender.

JT: How hard is it to consider guys like Yadier Alvarez when doing your lists and organizational charts? In a normal year, we would have seen how he reacted to adversity, and it’s possible he could have broken through. Now, it’s almost like we’re forced logically to assume the worst–which tends to happen, ‘natch.
Keith Law: I say this facetiously, but … who?

John Olerud: So… how do the Ms best handle this? Indeed, as a (now more embarrassed and more reluctant than ever) fan of this sorry team, what would you say is the best approach going forward, both on a responsible/ethical and (less importantly) competitive level? To be sure, these are not mutually exclusive outcomes, and any suggestion of such is no doubt complete BS. But I’d be grateful to get your analysis of the situation and your suggestions for any ideal hires. Thanks as always for taking the time.
Keith Law: The M’s need an actual investigation into their internal culture, because, in most cases, if the President feels this way, it’s reflected throughout the organization. Any solution depends on just how widespread these sentiments are.

Todd Boss: If you were the Nats, would you stick Seth Romero as a starter in AAA or have him compete for the lefty reliever MLB bullpen slot?
Keith Law: Can’t see him being a starter with his persistent knuckleheadedness.

JT: I signed up for the Athletic for you and for Eno. Thank you for what you do.
Keith Law: Thank you. Your subscriptions allow me to do what I do.

Jake: What did you hear about Seth Corry in instructs that jumped him into your top 100? Do you think he starts in AA and at least starts the clock for giving the Giants pitching a much needed youth infusion?
Keith Law: The answer to the first question is in the player capsule for Corry. The answer to the second is yes to AA and no to the majors.

Aaron: Agree with your take on the Chicago 7 – it shows the full Sorkin experience, with the good and bad that implies (maybe he created the female FBI agent to have a bad female character).
Keith Law: In fairness, and I don’t feel any real need to be fair to Sorkin, the real story has no women in it. Creating a fictional female character to avoid that is probably a good thing. Creating THAT fictional female character was just stupid.

Phillip P.: Thanks for the chat, Keith! By every measure, Ronald Acuna has been a star. And if he maintains his level of production for a long time, he’ll be a HOFer. But what are the chances he makes the leap from being a 5- to 6-win player to being an 8-plus-WAR guy? What adjustments does he need to make to get there?
Keith Law: He’s still just 23, and B-R had him at 2.3 WAR in 46 games played last year (a rate of 8.1 WAR per 162 games) after a 5.7 WAR in 2019. Your question sort of presumes he’s not already heading towards a 7-8 WAR peak and I don’t agree with that.

JJ: What will you miss most about the Tim Tebow Era?
Keith Law: Oh, no question, the whining from people who claimed I hate Tebow for his religious beliefs, as if he was the only Christian in baseball.

Dan: Thanks as always for the chat Keith! Who in the Twins system do you think has the best chance to have a helium year and jump up the rankings?
Keith Law: Every team report has a Sleeper section at the end that answers this precise question.

Rob: I’m curious now that you’ve gone through the whole prospect exercise (and thanks for all 80,000 words, by the way), did you end up getting more usable and reliable (aka independently sourced) scouting information than expected?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think so. I’m glad this book is closed and we will get games this year, with scouting reports and data, to make the whole exercise better and more enjoyable in 2022.

Joe: Does Antoine Kelly project as a starter or more a 2 pitch reliever?
Keith Law: Starter with high variance.

Guest: With Lindor, Baez, Correa, Seager and Story all free agents at the same time, what do you think those contracts look like? My assumption is that all of them expect $150 million+ but I have a hard time finding 5 realistic teams that will bid at that level.
Keith Law: Depends on whether there are any more free agents out there as a result of the new CBA – or if the CBA negotations are drawn out and we get some sort of labor stoppage.

Tom: I think we’re probably ok to just throw out Kris Bryants 2020 and say he’s still a .380 OBP 500 SLG guy, right?
Keith Law: I would work off that assumption if I were Hoyer.

JJ: Ten years, $240 million, and three total playoff games — do you think, if given a redo, either the Angels or Albert Pujols would do that contract again?
Keith Law: I’m sure Pujols would. I doubt the Angels would.

Jackie: Do you think Jeter Downs takes over at second base for the Red Sox some time in 2021? I’m not too excited by the thought of Enrique Hernandez on an everyday basis.
Tim: How close to being a MLBer is Khalil Lee? What’s his most likely future? Thanks.
Keith Law: I think Downs could, yes.
Keith Law: Lee is probably not far at all from being a big leaguer, but he has a real adjustment to make before he’s a regular (and the hope is that he started to make it at the alt site).

Salty: You mentioned last chat about not investing in crypto partially because it’s an environmental disaster. I don’t get involved with it personally due to a lack of understanding and confidence in it, but never thought of it in that light. Can you please expound on that, unless you feel this isn’t the best format to do so?
Keith Law: I believe I linked to it in the last chat. Cryptocurrencies require tremendous computing power, and the energy used to support them already rivals some countries’ entire energy usage. And to what end? None, other than speculation.

Heather: What’s your favorite conspiracy theory that you secretly think, “Yeah, that one might actually be true”? Roswell, the JFK assassination, the Patrick Ewing Lottery Fix, pedophile pizza parlors?
Keith Law: I mean, one of those things (Ewing) is not like the others. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to hear a pro sports league rigged something to ensure that a player went to a specific market – or, worse, to ensure that, say, Michael Jordan never fouled out of a game because it would crush TV ratings. The other three things you mentioned are all basically nuts.

Brian: I had a question there (I’m the Dylan Cease guy) and hit send too soon. My question was if you were the WSox, would you rather have Dylan Cease or Dane Dunning?
Keith Law: Cease.

Chris P: Didn’t see Derek Hill in your top 20 for the Tigers. You had been higher on him than most in the past due to his athleticism, but has he gone past the prospect level now?
Keith Law: With no evidence to say he’s going to either make more contact or hit the ball harder than he did in 2019, we have a 25-year-old whose ceiling is fourth outfielder.

Todd Boss: When Jared Kelenic is sent to AAA on April 1st for two weeks, how big will the outrage be?
Keith Law: He has more reason for a grievance than Kris Bryant did, given Mather’s comments. That said, is Kelenic actually ready for the majors? Do we know that? The Mariners might have a good answer, but with no minor league season in 2020, we’d just be guessing.

Kori: Hi Keith – if Austin Beck can (a big if) bring his hit tool to 40, does that rest of the package make him an average regular?
Keith Law: Don’t think so. 45 yes, 40 no.
Keith Law: Well … even at a 45, is the power he shows in BP also showing up in games? Or does he get to that grade 45 (thus still below average) hit tool by shortening up and trading power for contact?

Matthew: Catcher of the future in Toronto: Jansen, Kirk, or…?
Keith Law: I might bet on Moreno over Kirk, but it’s not Jansen.

Old Prospector: Do you think Francisco Mejia can be an everyday player in MLB?
Keith Law: I do. There are few guys who hit like he did in the minors and then completely fail to hit in the majors. Andy Marte comes to mind. But they’re rare.
Keith Law: And Mejia didn’t just put up empty numbers. He really hit, with some impact, and a good swing, and scouts agreed with the stat lines.

Old Prospector: Obviously it is going to be a rough year in Pittsburgh. Beyond Hayes and Keller, is there anyone on the big league roster you think could be a valuable contributor the next time the Pirates are competing for a playoff spot?
Keith Law: I could see Reynolds ending up on that roster 3-4 years from now. Anyone else of merit would be gone by then, though.

Jay: Do you think we’ll ever see two DHs? Or teams use their DH for their catcher instead of the pitcher? It feels like catcher’s are getting worse offensively as a collective for some time now.
Keith Law: No, I don’t, and I don’t agree on the latter point. I think catchers hit about as well as they did 30-40 years ago, but they catch better.

Dan: Do you think Vlad will be able to make the adjustment(s) to get the ball in the air more this year? I know it’s super early in his career, but was that ever a concern of yours/anyone’s regarding his swing? I can’t recall ever reading anything about his GB%.
Keith Law: I think he will at some point, but all the people excited about his weight loss seem to think the two are connected and they’re absolutely not.

Sandy Alderson: Is Biden reopening the child detention facility as bad as it sounds? What do we do to hold him accountable?
Keith Law: It isn’t as bad as it sounds, but that didn’t stop everyone from reacting to a headline. They had to reopen the facility to comply with COVID-19 prevention guidelines. The Washington Post and NPR both fact-checked this claim.

Dr. Bob: Isn’t the problem that Kelenic can’t file a grievance if he’s sent down because he won’t be represented by the union until he comes up?
Keith Law: Bryant wasn’t either. He still filed one (and lost).

Jay: When COL signed Arenado to his extension, I thought COL signed him for a good $/WAR/year and it was a good value. Why did they have to kick in an extra $50M to trade him for prospects with such limited ceilings and FV?
Keith Law: Poor negotiating by the Rockies? I don’t have another answer.

Prospector: Who would your project for better offensive production if they both reach close to their ceilings – CJ Abrams or Ronny Mauricio?
Keith Law: Abrams.

Jay: Give me hope that Blaze Jordan will be an all-star. Not because I like the Red Sox, but because we need more Dodgeball named guys in MLB
Keith Law: Extremely unlikely. Singles hitting first baseman. Needs a massive swing overhaul to get to his power.

Old Prospector: Any thoughts on Elijah Greene? Is he a potentially generational type 1-1 pick type guy?
Keith Law: He’s going to be a high pick in 2022 – there was some talk he’d try to reclassify into 2021 – but I am not putting that tag on him yet.

JJ: I don’t think everyone involved in the JFK assassination was arrested. Oliver Stone made everyone who thinks that way look like a lunatic, however. Thanks, Oliver.
Keith Law: I haven’t seen that movie, essentially for that reason: ultimately he’s trafficking in, and profiting from, conspiracy theories. I know people say the movie is great. I can’t watch it with clear eyes.

davealden53: First time since your wedding that I’ve stumbled upon one of your chats while it was still going on. Congrats on the wedding and especially on the letter you wrote about it. The letter was so sincere and quietly joyful that I’ve yet to delete it but instead return to reread it regularly.
Keith Law: thank you! you haven’t missed many chats – this is only my third since I got married – but I appreciate the kind words.

Andy: I know you haven’t done draft rankings yet but Leiter v Rocker, who are you leaning towards having higher? Also, is that top 2 better (in college) than UCLA’s of Cole-Bauer?
Keith Law: Draft rankings next week. I have never understood the idea that Rocker was some obvious 1-1 guy. He’s not. And I don’t think he’s going to be 1 on my ranking. This is some combination of him throwing the no-hitter two years ago and being famous and good in high school (he was), but those aren’t reasons for a player to be taken first overall.

Todd Boss: Will the ill-advised comments of now resigned Mariner’s president have a profound effect on the next CBA? Or will his comments be spun as the words of a raving mad-man that are completely untrue?
Keith Law: I’m hopeful it encourages the players to take a harder line this time around, after they went for quality of life improvements in the last negotiations but ended up conceding too much ground on other fronts, including the luxury tax and the international free agency system.

Lacey: Hey Keith, do you have any baseball podcast series you’d recommened? I just finished The Edge about the Astros and loved it. Anything along those lines?
Keith Law: No, sorry, even in a pre-pandemic world I only listened to 3-4 podcasts, and now without time in the car I have a hard time keeping up with those.

Matt: What’s your take on Mitch Keller….didn’t allow a hit in his last eleven innings, but walked ten guys….
Keith Law: We know by now that pitchers not allowing hits is at least partly a function of luck/defense, and not exclusively a credit to the pitcher. You’re also asking about a sample so small it’s meaningless. Keller’s main problem is the lack of a third pitch to get lefties out – in 2020, he walked 11 LHB and struck out 6, and he’s had problems with LHB going back at least to AA.

Guest: What will be the highest priority for the union in the next CBA: fixing service time manipulation, making drastic changes to the luxury tax, reducing the number of controlled years from 6 to something like 4, something else?
Keith Law: It should be the luxury tax, although I would also like to see them reduce the number of years to free agency to 5.

Chris: You’re forced to answer, which team is the best run organization in baseball right now?
Keith Law: Fun fact: I am not forced to answer, so I won’t. There are many well-run organizations in baseball right now.

Len: Macro Luciano – can he become a GUY?
Keith Law: Yes.

Chris: I’m a huge Dodger fan, but I just absolutely love what the Padres have done the last couple of years (minus Hosmer). It is just so refreshing to see a team trying to win (and what a weird thing to say about professional sports).
Keith Law: It’s great for baseball, but isn’t it good business? Sure, you can take easy profits from revenue sharing, but if you want the bigger payoff, doesn’t it make sense to exploit the inefficiency of other teams essentially doing as little as possible and try to win? If the Padres end up with their first World Championship, it will also result in a large windfall for the owners.

Dee Arby: Our educational system needs a massive overhaul, what core subjects outside of science and math should we be teaching the kids?
Keith Law: Critical thinking. That’s more of a multi-disciplinary thing, but teaching students to read with a critical eye – perhaps using the SIFT method – and understand how to tell when someone is lying or misleading them, or when a conclusion isn’t supported by the evidence provided, or how unconscious biases might affect what they see and think.

Nate: Not a baseball comment — having the league fix the draft lottery so the Knicks win the rights to Patrick Ewing, then never winning a championship with Patrick Ewing, is so typical of the Knicks. They can’t even cheat properly.
Keith Law: That joke was the best thing in all of Soul.

Guest: Just saw Royce Lewis, top prospect of Twins shows up for Spring Training and under preliminary physical is revealed to have torn ACL and out for the year. As an athlete, how can you have that serious an injury and not know???
Keith Law: Perhaps he was hoping for a better outcome? I’m sure lots of us have had health scares, or know people who’ve had, where you knew something was wrong but hoped or prayed (if you’re so inclined) for a better diagnosis than the worst case scenario.

JR: Has tanking gone so far that it’s become a strategy for not really trying but we can tell our fans it’s our plan? I feel like Cubs/Astros started this trend, and it worked for the most part for them. Other teams have tried but seemed to only be serious about the tanking aspect and not the “spending once we get good” aspect, yet they keep using tanking to stay bad/not spend.
Keith Law: The “we’ll spend when we get good” line is the key here. As long as fans buy it, they’ll sell that … and never spend.

Pat: Courses that should be mandatory in school- Some type of personal finance. Teach kids about credit, stocks, interest, borrowing, student loans, etc. I wonder how much lesser the student loan debt crisis would be if young people at least had a basic understanding of what they’re signing.
Keith Law: Yes. I’d rather see a full year of economics – half on personal finance, half on how the economy actually works – than a fourth year of English (or literature). I say that as an avid reader, too. The former is a lot more useful for life after high school than reading Pride and Prejudice and An American Tragedy.

Rules for Thee: Why did you feel it appropriate to have a wedding ceremony amidst the pandemic? I know you said you were in compliance with Delaware regulations but you’ve also criticized those regulations. So which is it? Abiding the regulations makes approved activities safe? Or the state’s regulations are putting people needlessly at risk?
Keith Law: That’s simply false. I did not criticize Delaware’s regulations on gatherings, which were very strict and right to be so. We adhered to those, with a tiny reception, and to mask and distancing guidelines as well. I have criticized the lax rules on bars being open, though. Go troll somewhere else.

Frank: Please fine “Rules for Thee” $5 for baiting.
Keith Law: Oh, absolutely.

Chris: I’m wondering if you have an opinion on a team having a fixation in the international market for specific countries. The Dodgers seem to skew heavily towards Venezuela right now, for example.
Keith Law: That was true at some points in the past – Houston had a longstanding affinity for Venezuelan prospects in the 1990s – but I don’t know if that’s feasible now with a hard cap on international bonuses. That said, the failed state in VZ and danger of travel there could also mean an opportunity for teams willing to take that risk or spend more for personal security there.

Guest: Keith, what does it say about an organization that just a year or so ago would sign a young player like Arrenado (or in NFL, Wentz or Goff) to huge 9 figure contracts and then move on??
Keith Law: Aren’t those NFL deals non-guaranteed? I don’t think it’s a perfect analogy. Also, Carson Wentz held the ball for your entire question and just got sacked.

Oscar: Have you ever considered designing your own board game? It’s not like you have too many other things going on . . .
Keith Law: Yes. It’s a time-consuming task, though, and I have so much else I need or want to do.

Guest: Keith, as a follow-up to the Mather talk: Don’t these multi-billion dollar organizations have internal media training and updating memos of how and what to say in public?? It seems like such an easy answer to a lot of stupidity.
Keith Law: Yes. I’m not sure they think to include Presidents and CEOs in those. Isn’t there an assumption (wrong, obviously) that if you’ve risen to that point you already know how to deal with the public?

Joe: What percentage which you say AAA games happen in early April at home stadiums? How about the other levels in May?
Keith Law: I think the games will happen – figure maybe 20% are cancelled due to positive tests – without fans until at least May. MLB may just have to accept that they need to subsidize some of those teams, which is only fair since they just executed a hostile takeover of the minors anyway.

Mike Trout: Longtime reader so seeing you comment and watch football is a little jarring. What do you like about it now that you didn’t seem to like before?
Keith Law: I married an Eagles fan. Although I have to say I prefer watching rugby. As long as we beat the English, I don’t care!
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks so much for reading, especially with the large amount of content I dumped on you in the past month. I will have a draft ranking up next week, and remember that The Inside Game is coming out in paperback on April 6th. You can pre-order it now, and maybe I’ll get to do some signing events this summer once more of us are vaccinated too. Stay safe everyone!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ February 24, 2021
→ By keith

The Trial of the Chicago 7.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (now on Netflix) has a great movie at its heart, with all of the quick, witty dialogue you’d expect from an Aaron Sorkin script, but it is the most over-Sorkined thing imaginable. The actual story of the Chicago Eight (later reduced to seven, when Bobby Seale was granted a mistrial) is compelling enough that Sorkin had to do nothing more than supply the dialogue. Instead, he fabricated events and added melodrama to a story that didn’t need it.

The Chicago Seven were seven men who were involved in some way in the protests against the Vietnam War held in Chicago during the 1968 Democratic National Convention, which itself took place in the wake of the murder of Robert F. Kennedy. Those protests descended into violence when the Chicago Police Department responded with violence to the protesters’ mere existence, but the city, and then the new Republican Administration of President Nixon, chose to charge eight men with conspiracy to incite violence. The eighth, Seale, wasn’t at the protests, but was the co-founder of the Black Panther Party, and had the misfortune to be in Chicago for a few hours during the convention, so he was arrested too on a charge that was even more bogus than those faced by the other seven. The trial was a farce, over before it started, thanks in no small part to a judge who kept one foot on the scales the entire time.

Sorkin chose to tell the story of the trial, giving us the protests and the violence through flashbacks, which is a reasonable device for explaining this part of history, especially given the historical populiarty of courtroom dramas on TV and in film. With the cast he’s assembled here to play the courtroom principals, he can get away with most of the action taking place inside that room, giving them the dialogue and letting the likes of Sacha Baron Cohen (Abbie Hoffman) and Eddie Redmayne (Tom Hayden) handle the rest.

There are portions of this film that work, which makes it all the worse when Sorkin decides to tinker with the story. The actual courtroom was something of a circus; Hoffman and fellow Yippies co-counder Jerry Rubin (played by Jeremy Strong) did pull a lot of the antics you see in the film, the judge (Frank Langella, good in a one-note role) really was this crooked, and what happens to Bobby Seale in the movie did happen in the real trial. So why would Sorkin insert so much fiction into this narrative? Why would he have the pacifist David Dellinger (John Carroll Lynch) punch a bailiff in the courtroom, when no such thing happened? Why do we get this fake honeytrap storyline around Rubin, with an FBI agent who never existed? Why wouldn’t Sorkin show any of the testimony from the many celebrities, including Phil Ochs, Judy Collins, and Allen Ginsburg, who did appear at the real trial? And the ending of the film, while certainly stirring, is a complete fantasy, and it is maddening that Sorkin decided that actual history wasn’t good enough for him or for us.

Cohen may not quite have the most screen time, but he’s clearly the star of the film, and if anyone gets a nomination for this movie – and the oddsmakers have it getting a whole bushel – it should be him. The secondary framing device showing Hoffman retelling the story of the protests and trial during a standup routine doesn’t work either, but Cohen is tremendous inside the courtroom and in the flashbacks, especially when he’s on the stand – he and Rubin were the only two of the seven to testify – and we get more of Hoffman than just the wisecracks. It’s not really an Oscar-worthy performance because the role itself is too slight, but Cohen runs it right up to its ceiling. Rylance also stands out for his performance here, also in a limited role, and this might be the movie that truly deserves the Best Ensemble Cast award rather than any individual honors.

How this got a nomination for the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama over Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom or The Nest, to name just two superior films, is beyond me. It’s entertaining, beyond a doubt; the movie never drags, and Sorkin can write some great dialogue, but this script is too bombastic, too overwritten, and, weird as it is to say, too slanted in favor of the defendants to call it a great work of art. I’m not even arguing for the side of the prosecution and certainly not the cops, not one of whom was convicted of any crime in connection with the riot they started, but Sorkin is trying so hard to canonize these seven men that he often turns them into cartoon characters. They can be heroes without Sorkin’s help, and the film is worse for his efforts.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2020 best original screenplay nominees, 2020 best picture nominees, 2020 best supporting actor nominees, 2020 movies, netflix

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