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Music update, March 2021.

What a loaded month for new tracks; maybe the possibility of tours later this year has encouraged artists to put out more new music, or maybe it’s a backlog of songs recorded during the long winter, but either way, this is one of my longest new music playlists ever, with 25 songs and over 100 minutes of music even after I made some cuts. You can access the Spotify playlist here if you can’t see the widget below.

The Lottery Winners featuring the Wonderstuff – Bang. The Wonderstuff’s “Circlesquare” is one of those songs I forget from time to time, only to have something bring it back the front of my memories and remind me of how much I like it. I wasn’t aware they were still active as a group, but they toured with then-rookies The Lottery Winners in 2016, which I assume led to this joint effort that I think is my favorite LW track so far. It’s indie-pop with a rough undertone in the lyrics, just like “Circlesquare.”

YONAKA – Ordinary. The Brighton quartet’s second new single of the year, “Ordinary” might be their best song so far, and I assume this self-produced track heralds a sophomore album at some point this year.

FKA twigs feat. Headie One – Don’t Judge Me. Headie One’s 2020 mixtape GANG had a two-minute song called “Judge Me (Interlude)” that featured FKA twigs on vocals, but it was truly an interlude, hardly a finished product. This, however, is a real song, with twigs elevated to lead status, or at least co-lead with Headie One, and how could you avoid interpreting the lyrics in an entirely new light after what she has gone through in the last six months? Her last album, MAGDALENE, was outstanding, one of my favorites of 2019, and I get the sense whatever she does next is going to top that.

Jungle – Keep Moving. Jungle put two songs on my ranking of the top 100 tracks of the 2010s, “Busy Earnin” (#64) and “Happy Man” (#11), one from each of their first two albums, both heavily influenced by 1970s soul, R&B, and funk. This lead single from their third album Loving in Stereo, due out August 13th, moves forward a few years in the past to the early years of disco, with a great hook but perhaps not the high ceiling of their best songs to date because it’s lost some of the harder edges.

Ghost of Vroom – I Hear the Axe Swinging. I was hopeful that Mike Doughty’s new project would bring back some of that long-lost Soul Coughing vibe after a promising EP last summer, and I think this new single, from the group’s full-length album Ghost of Vroom 1, delivers on that promise, from Doughty’s half-sung, half-spoken word vocals to a drum-and-bass backdrop. The whole album is made of the same stuff, although I think Doughty is more front-and-center than he was on Soul Coughing’s first two albums.

The Horrors – Lout. The Horrors came on the scene in 2006 with the arty, dissonant single “Sheena is a Parasite,” went more mainstream with their stellar album Skying in 2011, and continued evolving in an even tamer direction after that, so their new three-song EP, also called Lout, is a surprise and a callback to their mid-aughts sound, with this title track the most accessible on the record.

NewDad – Slowly. This new Irish quartet is the latest in a sudden surge of shoegaze bands from that country, a quarter-century after the original shoegaze movement peaked in England, although this new wave is often more pop-accessible, as on NewDad’s sixth single, off their new EP Waves.

Japanese Breakfast – Be Sweet. “Be Sweet” is one of the most-lauded tracks of the month as far as I can see, thanks to a big hook in the chorus and a sunny, poppy sounds that should really cross over to mainstream pop radio.

BLOXX – Everything I’ve Ever Learned. I enjoyed this West London group’s debut album Lie Out Loud, including the title track and “Coming Up Short,” comparing it to California indie pop, and that’s still here on this new single, which is a little more mature and layered without losing any of their knack for a strong melody.

Sprints – Ashley. Sprints, like BLOXX, appeared on my top 100 songs of 2021, and they’re back now with another punk-influenced banger, although here the Irish quartet bring more rock/pop elements to their formula for a song that’s less indignant but still rocks, building to a powerful chorus, with lyrics that might take a little from “Every Breath You Take.”

Everything Everything – SUPERNORMAL. These art-rockers released this leftover track from their RE-ANIMATOR recording sessions, and I kind of wish it had made the record – this is the kind of frenetic music at which they excel, and which first drew my attention nearly a decade ago with songs like “Cough Cough” and “Kemosabe.”

Jorja Smith – Addicted. Still waiting for word on a second album from Smith, who has still been busy, including this stunning single and, as I recently learned, a contribution to the soundtrack of Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon.

Sons of Kemet feat. Kojey Radical & Lianne La Havas – Hustle. This British jazz ensemble brings in elements of Afrobeat, Caribbean music, classical, and here rap courtesy of Kojey Radical. Sons of Kemet were shortlisted for the 2018 Mercury Prize for their last album, Your Queen is a Reptile, and their follow-up, Black to the Future, will be out on May 14th.

Daniel Casimir, Moses Boyd, et al – Safe (Part One). Because I’ve listened so much to Dark Matter, the 2020 debut album from jazz drummer Moses Boyd, I’ve discovered numerous other tracks on which he’s played, songs I would never have found otherwise because I don’t really know jazz well at all. Casimir is the lead artist here, a bassist and bandleader who put out his first full-length album (with Tess Hirst) in 2019 and has returned here with his longest song yet, this seven-minute opus that my limited jazz knowledge tells me bears a strong influence from John Coltrane.

DREAMERS, Big Boi, UPSAHL – Palm Reader. You might remember DREAMERS’ 2014 alternative radio hit “Wolves” or 2016’s “Sweet Disaster,” both perfectly cromulent songs, but this track expands their sound and is far more memorable for the contributions of Big Boi and the young singer UPSAHL. Just a reminder that palm reading is not a thing.

James – All the Colours of You. James’ peak output from 1989-1999, from “Sit Down” to Millionaires, should be up there in the pantheon of music in that era alongside the Oasises and the Blurs and other purveyors of smart rock/pop, but for whatever reason they’re just not remembered that way, and their music since the turn of the century has usually left me disappointed. This isn’t the next “I Know What I’m Here For,” but it’s good to hear James turn the tempo back up and bang the drums again.

TEKE::TEKE – Meikyu. Named for a Japanese urban legend about a vengeful spirit, this seven-piece, Montréal-based, Japanese band, incorporates traditional instruments into 1960s rock that sounds like the score to an early spy movie or a James Bond thriller. Their new EP Yoru Ni features two standout songs, this one and the title track.

Black Honey – Back of the Bar. This Brighton indie-pop band just released their second album, Written & Directed, which runs a scant 30 minutes but includes a bunch of catchy pop tracks, including this one, “Believer,” “Run for Cover,” and “Beaches.”

beabadoobee – Last Day on Earth. I do appreciate beabadoobee’s ’90s alternative radio sounds, but when she says “I’ve got something to say,” it just reminds me that she doesn’t seem to have anything to say. Her music isn’t catchy or compelling enough for me to overlook the lyrics yet, but she is a talented guitarist and songwriter, so she’s still a prospect with some upside.

Inhaler – Cheer Up Baby. Poor Elijah Hewson. The lead singer of Inhaler is never going to get away from comparisons to his father, Bono, because he sounds just like him whenever he extends his voice, as he does on the chorus here – but it’s a good song in its own right, and Inhaler doesn’t really sound like U2.

Royal Blood – Limbo. I’m not sure how I feel about this new single from Royal Blood, whose first single “Out of the Black” was my #1 song of 2014 and #13 of the decade, which is catchy and has that heavy bottom all their songs do (because Mike Kerr is playing a bass guitar with an octaver pedal, not a six-string), but it’s … dancy? Am I just thrown because this is a good song that is not what I think of a Royal Blood song? That bass riff at the end is pretty killer, though.

Death from Above 1979 – Modern Guy. “One + One” was the lead single from their new album, Is 4 Lovers, and I think my preferred single of these two, but I haven’t had a chance to dive into this album yet.

Wheel – Ascend. This Finnish prog-metal band has fast become one of my favorite artists in that niche, and their second album, Resident Human, has two standout shorter singles in this and “Fugue,” along with three songs that clock in beyond ten minutes, which I understand isn’t everyone’s taste.

Gojira – Amazonia. Is Gojira the best metal band in the world today? I’m inclined to say yes, especially since this is the third straight single they’ve released (“Born for One Thing” and “Another World”) that retains their trademark heaviness but strike a better balance between the not-quite-growled vocals and the showstopping music behind it.

Moonspell – The Hermit Saints. More gothic metal from these Portuguese stalwarts who seem like a throwback to heavy metal in the pre-death (pre-Death?) days.

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→ March 30, 2021
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Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon.

I wouldn’t normally write up a movie like Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon, now on Netflix, one of the nominees for this year’s Academy Award for Best Animated Feature, because it’s ostensibly a kids’ movie – and I say that as someone who has long loved Shaun the Sheep and Aardman stuff in general. The first StS season came out when my daughter was maybe 3 or 4, and she and I would watch them together and laugh, and her giggle would just make me laugh some more. The episode in season 1 where the sheep are visited by a couple of mischievous aliens helped my daughter come to the conclusion that “aliens have one eye, monsters have two eyes.” (It’s still one of my favorites.)

The first Shaun the Sheep movie was also nominated for an Oscar, and it was funny, but frivolous. That was a great movie for kids, one that you could enjoy as an adult, but not something that had a second layer for the older parts of the audience like most Pixar movies do. Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon, a stand-alone sequel, goes way beyond the first movie, though. It is absolutely packed with references and callbacks to classic science fiction, from H.G. Wells to Doctor Who to 2001 to The X-Files to E.T., over 50 Easter eggs that I saw myself (I watched it twice to try to spot more) and that I read about online after watching. And it’s still really funny, with great sight gags (there is no dialogue in any Shaun the Sheep films or episodes … they are sheep, after all) and a plot that winks at conventions of sci-fi in general and the hoary alien-visitation gag in particular.

Shaun is the ringleader of the sheep at Mossy Bottom Farm where, as with the titular animals in Chicken Run, the sheep are organized, and often try to outwit The Farmer (not that hard) and his dog/foreman Bitzer (a bit harder) to try to get more food, have more fun, or annoy the asshole pigs who live next door. (The pigs are, sadly, not in Farmageddon enough.) This time around, though, they have a visitor – an alien child named Lu-La who crashes their spaceship nearby and ends up in the Farmer’s barn, unbeknownst to the Farmer, who sees a news report about the old man who said he saw the spaceship and decides to capitalize by building a ramshackle attraction he calls Farmageddon. What that really means, of course, is that he makes Bitzer and the sheep build it, while Shaun and Lu-La try to hide from everyone around – including the very Scully-like Agent who is determined to find the spaceship and capture Lu-La.

Hijinks ensue, as they always do when Shaun is involved, but the great surprise of this movie is that it is absolutely packed with allusions, references, callbacks, in-jokes, and more. One Doctor Who bit my daughter and I caught just slayed us, and apparently there’s another one we missed around the Fourth Doctor that was somewhere in the background. There’s a symbol in a pizza box right when Shaun and Lu-La first meet that I didn’t catch the first time around, but it was one of at least two references to that particular movie – and I got the second one. There’s a mechanic’s shop called H.G. Wheels. The Agent’s code to access a locked room is a reference. There are just so many things to catch in this movie that there are still more I haven’t, and I don’t even think the few lists I’ve seen of Easter eggs and trivia are close to complete.

I recognize that in-jokes and allusions don’t make a movie great, but everything Shaun the Sheep is at least good enough, and this sequel has a more entertaining plot than the original. I know Soul is the favorite for the Oscar, but, man, I’d watch this for a third or fourth time before I watched that a second time.

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→ March 27, 2021
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Stick to baseball, 3/26/21.

I had one filler post for subscribers to the Athletic this past week to tide us over until we get to my predictions this upcoming week, looking at some possible trends in player development to watch for as games begin next week. I also held a Klawchat on Friday.

At Paste, I reviewed Renature, the latest collaborative design from Wolfgang Kramer and Michael Kiesling, who’ve worked together before on Torres and Tikal. This game has a good bit more oomph to it – it’s less abstract and definitely more fun.

On the Keith Law Show this week I spoke to Julie DiCaro about her new book Sidelined: Sports, Culture, and Being a Woman in America and how sports leagues can do better on matters of gender, race, harassment, and domestic violence. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify.

For more of me, you can subscribe to my free email newsletter. Also, you can still buy The Inside Gameand Smart Baseball anywhere you buy books; the paperback edition of The Inside Game will be out on April 6th, just 10 days from now.

And now, the links…

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→ March 26, 2021
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Klawchat 3/26/21.

I have another new board game review up at Paste, looking at Renature, the newest collaboration from Wolfgang Kramer and Michael Kiesling, two designers whose games I’ve liked when they work on their own but whose joint efforts have left me cold – until this one.

Keith Law: Pay attention, it’s not hard to decipher. Klawchat.

Ifickey: Did you get a chance to scout Nick Bitsko? If he wouldn’t have reclassified, where would he rank in this upcoming draft?
Keith Law: Never seen him. His season hadn’t started last spring when the world ended. He’d be in the same range, late first round, this year, but given the shoulder surgery he should be very glad he reclassified and signed when he did.

TomBruno23: Jack Leiter, 124 pitches…managerial malfeasance?
Keith Law: No, but pointless. He’s got a $6-8 million payday in less than four months. There’s no good reason to push him just so in 20 years he can say he threw a no-hitter in a mid-season SEC game.

Guest: Any hope for Luis Urias or has that ship sailed? Looks like neither the bat or OBP skills have shown up with him thus far in Milwaukee.
Keith Law: I don’t give up on guys with a history of hitting in the minors that quickly.

Jon: Is Corbin Martin a top-60 (give or take) pitcher this season? Is that expecting too much too soon?
Keith Law: I’m a big fan but since he is still just coming back from TJ that feels like a very optimistic projection.

Bryan: Dylan Cease’s BB problems have never seen to go anywhere. Can he be a competent starter at 4.5-5 BB/9? What is the ceiling if he gets it to 3 or so?
Keith Law: Potential #2 starter if he gets to average control, but can he get there when hitters hit his fastball as well and as hard as they do?

Pete: With the glutton of Braves pitching, do you see Bryse Wilson or Touki Toussaint making an impact this season or beyond, starting or out of the pen? Or will it have to be with another team if Atlanta won’t give them some run?
Keith Law: I assumed after they optioned Wright that Wilson would be in the rotation. Touki really has to work out of the pen for now and earn a rotation spot by throwing more strikes. It’s premium stuff, maybe ace stuff, but he has to be able to get it in the zone consistently.

Scott: Any good plan for Taylor Trammell this season? Just stick him in LF and see how it goes?
Keith Law: I’d start him in AAA. It’s become clear in the last year or so that his bat just isn’t as advanced as we (me, analysts, some scouts) thought it was. I do know one pro scout who was always a skeptic, though. Thought he was too passive in A-ball and wouldn’t hit better pitching.

Kevin: Could Brandon Marsh go .275/.350/.450 with 500 ABs this year? 15+ HR/SB?
Keith Law: I might take the under on the OBP for his rookie season.

Rod: I know to not read into ST stats too much but the Pirates look…..good? And Keller, the supposed ace, is the worst performing pitcher thus far. 1) What are the expectations for him – will he eventually be pushed into a relief role? 2) Obviously Adam Frazier and Kevin Newman aren’t going to hit .500 but the bat-to-ball skills seem elite. Frazier worth anything in a trade? Would you look to move Newman with a hot start or is he one of the guys you can start building around with Hayes, maybe Reynolds too?
Keith Law: The Pirates are not good. Let me disabuse you of that notion up front. They’re one of the two worst teams in the NL, even with some interesting guys. Keller has to find a weapon to get lefties out. He can kill RHB with the FB/CB but without a viable option for LHP he’ll never get close to his potential – I would argue his arsenal right now does not keep him in the rotation. I’ve long been a Newman fan, but he and Frazier may have too similar skill sets to both have roles here going forward.

Dan: I know you listed Gregory Polanco in the breakouts section…but what is a breakout for him? Is it All-Star level? A 2 win season? The tools are just gross if he could do the health thing.
Keith Law: I’m saying a 4-5 win season. 2 WAR would not be a breakout for him, or really anyone. If I think a player is going to break out, I am definitely hoping for more than 2 WAR.

Dan: The starts have been unreal for both Paxton and Robbie Ray – are they reclamation projects that you believe will be reclaimed for lack of a better word?
Keith Law: Both are good gambles, but spring training isn’t telling us anything.

Leo: Are velocities something that we can look for in Spring Training to be useful? It seems like Charlie Morton and Patrick Corbin both have regained a bit on the fastball, should that point towards better success than last year for both?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s one thing I think is potentially useful – a significant change in velocity in either direction. Corey Kluber struggling to hit 90 is a real problem. Dellin Betances did that two years ago and it was a sign he was hurt.

Greg: Any legitimate plan for Garrett Richards this year? Just throw him ’til his arm falls off?
Keith Law: I’m fairly sure the Red Sox have a plan, and that that’s not it.

Adam: I know you’re not a fantasy player, but each year it seems there is a guy drafted in 10th round or later that returns 1st round value. Nick Senzel a qualifier for you? He looks sharp already. Anyone else that you think could fit the profile?
Keith Law: He was a breakout candidate for me in 2020 but then came down with COVID-19 and wasn’t the same when he came back. I’m a believer, though.

Harrisburg Hal: As a fan, what is the best way to pressure MLB to move ASG in light of GA voting restrictions?
Keith Law: I doubt fans can move the needle in any way here, but I had a thought this morning: What if Black MLB players all declined invitations to play in the All-Star Game? Or announced now that they would boycott? The last thing MLB wants is that kind of publicity, not this year, not when they’re supposedly making a big push for DEI across the game.

Andy: Are the Reds kidding themselves trying Suarez at SS?
Keith Law: I mean, he was a shortstop once, and was actually a decent one. It might be a better option than anything else they have on hand.

Rick: Thanks Keith for all your work outside of baseball. Do have a baseball question though. Do you think Chisholm and/or Rodgers will eventually make it to allstar caliber players or just too many warts?
Keith Law: I’m all in on Jazz. Rodgers has two main obstacles: He can’t stay healthy, and he’s not selective enough at the plate. The latter could be improved. The former, though … well, he’s hurt again, and now losing more playing time he needs.

Michael: Hey Keith – not a prospect question, but we are hearing a lot from local media here in Philly about this being a huge Zach Eflin breakout season.  Should I buy the hype?  Have you seen anything that would indicate he is anything more that a potentially solid #3?
Keith Law: I think a solid #3 is about what he can be. The Phillies messed with his repertoire a bit, but I don’t think he ever had a higher ceiling than that, not without some significant change in his arsenal.

Kevin: Blink twice if you need help from someone forcing you to read the “mushroom coffee” ads on your podcast. I thought you pushed back at ESPN about an ad read (many moons ago), and figured fake coffee would have fit that same criteria. Either way, love the pod and thanks for the chats!
Keith Law: I have declined a couple of ads, and I often omit words from copy if I think they’re untrue or too pseudosciencey. That mushroom coffee is actually real coffee with some mushroom powder mixed in. They sent me a bag. I don’t like it.

Isaac: No one was “low” on Bobby Witt, but may we be underrating his potential? Only see his highlights, that swing gets through the zone awfully fast and mixed with that angle, it looks an awful lot like the man in Anaheim. Could Witt be a generational talent type?
Keith Law: I appreciate you prefacing that by saying no one was low on him … everyone’s got him rated pretty highly, especially for a guy who’s nearly 21 and has barely played. Even this winter I had execs from other clubs saying they weren’t sure about his hit tool, and while I know he’s been the flavor of the month, it’s still spring training and the hype is out of proportion. I don’t think he’s anything like the man in Anaheim – Trout was over a year younger on draft day, and at Witt’s age Trout was already the best player in baseball.

Freddie: Is CJ Abrams a potential #1 overall prospect, he seems to check off more boxes every time I blink
Keith Law: He checked off two more while you asked that question. And the answer is yes.

Fred: Do you still view Mize as a top of the rotation type? Seems like he gained a few ticks on his velocity. Is it just experience he needs, or is there another reason he seems to get hit harder than you’d expect considering his apparent raw stuff
Keith Law: I do still view that as his ceiling. He has to either miss more bats with his fastball or pitch with it less.

Scott: Do the A’s stay in Oakland?
Keith Law: Inertia says yes. Economics says no.

Ahammer: Is B.Doyle a legit prospect in Colorado? I have friends that are constantly hyping him, but I need more considering his age and level, or more from someone that knows what they’re talking about. These friends..don’t have the best track record, lol
Keith Law: Yes he’s legit but he really needs to play. He’s 23 with almost no pro experience and he played D2 ball in college, so we really have no idea if he can hit.

IF-land: Hi Keith, you seemed to hold up pretty well this last year, as many of us that battle mental health have had a rough year (not assuming you haven’t, but your writing has been great all year). Personally, I can’t wait for Baseball, getting to ball games will seem like a break from the mundane. Have you got out to games in person yet, last I recall your last game was scouting Veen. Hope your spring allows you to get out to games as we all enjoy your write ups
Keith Law: Thank you. I’m supposed to drive down to UVA tomorrow to see Miami and Adrian Del Castillo, which, as you remembered, will be my first game since Veen. It’s been about 54 weeks. I feel like I’m about to fly to Mars.

Sowers: Cleveland has seem to unlock the secret to develop pitchers that don’t seem to have the highest pedigree. Who would you think increases their value most in their system between Espino, Hankins, wolf, burns or the allens.  Is there a type of pitcher the develop better? Seems like burns falls more in line with the pleasac, Bieber mold
Keith Law: Espino if he stays healthy. Burns if you think Espino won’t do so.

H.cows: If Adley Rutschman was a RF, Would he still be viewed as a top 25 prospect? Is the bat good enough that it would play anywhere, or is it just that good in comparison to others at his position and stage?
Keith Law: Top 50 for sure. Top 25 might depend on the year.

Isaac: With Gimenez looking locked into the SS role in cleveland, who do you see ad the 2B in say 2023-24, seems like they have a ton of players that are pretty similar up the middle
Keith Law: I don’t think Gimenez is good enough to block their parade of SS prospects.

Rick: Apparently Kimbrel hasn’t been looking too good in Spring Training.  He hasn’t looked good since leaving Boston except for a short run at the end of last season.  He still has good stuff, but he’s reminding me of a former Cubs Closer Marmol who was all over the place. Think Kimbrel keeps the closing job or does he end up getting cut mid-season? Thanks
Keith Law: There’s a more likely option in the middle, where they keep him but he’s no longer the closer. The unavoidable truth is that closers – relievers of any sort, really – don’t last. Kimbrel held his peak longer than most.

KIL-cle: Because of the shortened season last year, should we be expecting a noticeable uptick in injuries to position players ad well as pitchers, in your opinion.
Keith Law: I wrote about that this week. I don’t know the answer – no one does – but I have an opinion, at least.

KIL-cle: Amed Rosario had a nightmare game in CF last week, but it was his 1st ever game there. Could be be an ultimate utility type for Cleveland, or would moving him maybe benefit both sides in this case?
Keith Law: As long as they just pick a position and leave him there, I think he’ll be fine. Moving him all over the place when he has no experience doing so wouldn’t help his bat.

Kevin: I know spring training stats dont matter, and last year for Dalbec was a SSS with 8 HR in 80 ABs, but realistically do you think he could hit 35-40 HR playing a full season this year?
Keith Law: I don’t. He’s going to swing and miss too much fort hat.

Jon: RIP Larry McMurtry.  Favorite novel of his?  I love The Last Picture Show.  The movie version is outstanding and might be better than the novel.  One of the great casts of all time.
Keith Law: I’ve only read Lonesome Dove, which was incredible despite its length.

Herb: It seems like many of the rules they are experimenting with in the minors seem geared to helping the running game, is that something you would like to see increase. Personally, I love going to games in the 90s and seeing Kenny Lofton get on 1st. A stolen base got the crowd going seemingly as much as anything. I think it shows the game within the game that the crowd really feeds on.
Keith Law: I do miss the running games of the ’80s and the race for 100 SBs. I think they’re exciting, but as many folks have written, they’re not a great strategy when the cost of a CS is so high.

Tony: It looks like the Marlins are going to have a pretty interesting rotation. I know your prospect rankings discussed Sanchez/Cabrera, but looking at the rotation as a whole how do you feel about those players and how to compare to each other regarding floor/ceiling?
Keith Law: I mentioned Rogers in my breakouts piece, even though I almost never include rookies, because he’s got a new slider that gives him a much higher ceiling than he had previously as a FB/CH guy with a 40 breaking ball. I don’t think the Marlins are going to see .500 this year but they’ll be the most interesting they’ve been in a decade.

Tony: If the draft were today, what would you estimate Jud Fabian’s range to be? Mid first to early second?
Keith Law: Late first to mid second, and dropping.

Wolf: Should transgender girls be able to win college scholarships in women’s sports?
Keith Law: Trans women are women.

Brent: Klaw, any idea who will fill in for Eloy in LF? I’d love for it to be Wild Thing Vaughn, but I’m a realist. Engel’s hurt too. Do you sign someone, just play 8…thanks
Keith Law: I worry about putting Vaughn in left when (as far as I know) he’s never played the OF. He might be Ryan Klesko out there. Maybe he gets hurt, maybe it impacts his bat. It’s not worth that risk.

Dungeon Master: Do you think the Mariners should go hard for one or two of the top free agents next year, especially a SS? Seems like with Kelenic, JRod, Haniger, Lewis, a bunch of solid role players, and the big 3 SP prospects they’re not far away from a pretty good team in a weakening AL West
Keith Law: I agree. Next winter is probably the beginning of the window where they should spend big to compete.

Mike: Not putting a ton of stock in spring training games, but Garrett Mitchell has a chance to be really fun, doesn’t he?
Keith Law: He can really run, and there’s enough bat-to-ball there to make that play, so even if he’s never actually good he should be an exciting player.

Danyul: Hi Keith – what role do you see garrett crochet playing for the sox this year
Keith Law: Reliever only, if he stays healthy.

Nick V: Has Groome’s ceiling lowered significantly due to his injury induced absences? I understand his bust potential is through the roof right now, but has any reports on his stuff being surprisingly good/bad?
Keith Law: No, his ceiling hasn’t lowered significantly. His curveball is more a 60 now than a 70, so it’s a little lower, but that’s the only real negative indicator right now.

Luke: Keith, loved the book. Can you speak to how the base rate affects the evaluation of Mississippi high schoolers (for example)? I understand how HS catchers and pitchers form a base rate, but for a geographic area what’s the commonality that should lump them into the same group? Level of competition?
Keith Law: Yes, level of competition. Applies to cold-weather kids too, although we’ve had more successes from high schools in the northeast than in Mississippi. There could be other variables involved as well – perhaps kids from the northeast are more likely to come from economically advantaged backgrounds that let them pay for outside coaching, or train at better facilities, or just get into more games.

Guest: Loved seeing the highlights of Rocker and Leiter recently. However, every time I see their pitch counts I think of you. Does their workload concern you at all?
Keith Law: It’s at the upper end of what PitchSmart considers acceptable. I’d really like to see Vanderbilt stop pushing them so hard every week. There’s just no good reason for it.

Santaspirt: What to make of DJ LeMahieu? Barely an average hitter by wRC+ in Colorado and then completely changes in NY
Keith Law: He’s made substantial use of the ballpark in the Bronx. Look at his home runs and where they’ve landed.

Guest: I know it’s just spring training, but the way Bell and Schwarber and Zimmerman (always a slow starter) have been swinging the bat in Florida has to bode well for the Nats’ lineup depth, right? Not that they’re all going to carry 1.100 OPS all year, but if they’re hitting pretty well this year that could have a major impact on the NL East. It feels like Washington has the widest variance range between “pretty forgettable” (if the bats aren’t there) and “95 wins” (if they all come up box cars).
Keith Law: Wrong. It’s just spring training. All of those guys could suck this year (I’m not predicting that) and three good weeks in March doesn’t change the probability of that happening.

Justin: Just watching some highlights, it seems like Rocker puts the ball where he wants it more often than Leiter does the same (granted, this is just a small sample in what Pitching Ninja provides on twitter), but I think Leiter is known as being the one more likely to have good command long term.   What are some things that scouts look for to say that someone without good present command may have good command someday.
Keith Law: That’s not accurate – Leiter does that at least as well as Rocker does. The biggest difference I hear from scouts on those two is that Leiter misses more bats with his fastball right now, while Rocker can show you a 70 slider (but hasn’t done so every start).

Generic MLB Player: Just so you know, I am in the absolute best shape of my career!
Keith Law: Good to hear! I am not.

justin g: Fernando Tatis was terrible the end of last year. Is it possible that his initial numbers are a mirage?
Keith Law: You’re asking if about 3 weeks in September tell us more than a year-plus of data that preceded it?

Jason (DC): Keeper league fantasy baseball and looking to add a prospect bat. Who do you like most long-term out of Nolan Gorman, Jarren Duran, Brandon Marsh, or Heliot Ramos? Thank you.
Keith Law: I’d go Duran, Marsh, Ramos, Gorman, in that order.

Pramit: I know that you (and many) tend not to fall for the “he’s in the best shape of his life” narrative that is created during the spring, but would you say Vlad’s weight loss could result in him having a breakout this year?
Keith Law: His weight never affected him at the plate. It’s how he swings. He’s hitting the ball hard but not squaring it up enough, getting on top of it to put it on the ground. Fix that and go have a milkshake.

eric: got my second pfizer shot, no issues, and the piece of mind and hope it brings is amazing.

EVERYONE: IF YOU CAN GET VACCINATED, GET VACCINATED!
Keith Law: Absolutely. I’m hoping Delaware will open it up to my category on the 1st. We’re so behind here.

Frank: Is there any chance Bobby Witt Jr makes the club for opening day?  Considering they are not going to contend this year wouldnt the royals be crazy not to manipulate his service time?
Keith Law: Witt Jr has never played a pro game outside of the complexes. I think promoting him what was once considered six levels and now would be five in one fell swoop would be, to use the technical term, crazy-go-nuts.

Jack: Is there any chance MLB actually moves the all-star game from Atlanta?
Keith Law: I doubt it – I really doubt it – but shame on everyone involved with a conscience if they don’t try.

Dave: Will Ryan McMahon ever happen?
Keith Law: I’m still in the yes camp. I know Sarah Langs of MLB.com called him a breakout candidate for 2021 too.

Eric: the apatow-type early-to-mid 2000s blockbuster comedies (40 yr old virgin, anchorman, old school, etc.) couldn’t – and shouldn’t – be made today. how does one reconcile laughing at and enjoying and quoting content that may have not struck one as super offensive 15-20 years ago, but now realizing how inappropriate and offensive it was to so many marginalized communities?
Keith Law: You have to draw that line for yourself. I believe works of art are largely products of their times. I happen to really like The Scarlet Pimpernel as a novel, but the anti-Semitic trope of the wandering Jew character would make it unpublishable today (for good reason), so it wouldn’t appear on any of my future rankings of novels, and I wouldn’t recommend that my kids read it. It popped up on a reading list for my daughter’s school when she was in 8th grade and I suggested that they reconsider it. Yet I also can recognize that the adventure story within is one of the best I’ve read in literature.

Kevin: what are the odds we see either a work stoppage or a strike for the 22 season?
Keith Law: Better than even.

Cory: Would you say that Lawlar, Rocker, and Leiter are clearly separating themselves from the rest of the draft class in their own tier, or is that still too early to say?
Keith Law: Take Lawlar out of that … he hasn’t looked like a top 3 guy so far. I don’t think 1-1 can be anyone but the two Vandy boys right now, but I also don’t think there’s an enormous gap between them and the next tier of college guys (Davis, del Castillo, Hoglund).

Mike: Banning the shift is ridiculous, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Dan: Is it at least slightly concerning that someone as polished as Torkelson has struck out 13 times in 24 PA this spring?
Keith Law: No.

Guest: In which film did you find the fictitious elements to be more distracting or detracting overall, Mank or The Trial of the Chicago 7?  For me it was the former because it felt out of place to begin with, in addition to being factually inaccurate, whereas in the latter those elements felt somewhat organic to the plot.
Keith Law: The latter, because they were so obviously fake. Sorkin just couldn’t help himself.

Dan: Why do you hate Nick Madrigal?
Keith Law: We were at Frost Gelato in Arizona at the same time. He was in front of me in line and he took the last scoop of Sea Salt Caramel. I’ll never forgive him.

RIP Jessica Walter: “I love all my children equally.”

“I don’t care for Gob.”
Keith Law: I’ll leave when I’m good and ready.

Mac: Do you really think MLB will crack down on pitchers using foreign substances and if so how do you see this affecting the (many) pitchers who doctor the baseball going forward?
Keith Law: Yes, but probably just at a cursory level, to do something without doing everything.

Jason: Will cryptocurrency end badly for a lot of people and investors?
Keith Law: Hasn’t every bubble, ever?

Bob: Bos and Tex both claimed that if scouts had seen more of Yorke and Carter they would have been drafted higher. They’ve both been to instructs and Yorke has been in camp with Bis so they have potentially been seen a bit. Should Sox and Rangers fans be feeling any more confident in those picks?
Keith Law: Not sure I buy that at all … it’s not that scouts didn’t see Yorke or Carter, but that they saw them and didn’t like what they saw. I had no trouble finding scouts who saw those guys last June.

Matt: Any “just missed” breakout predictions or players you considered but didn’t include in your article?
Keith Law: A reader mentioned Gavin Lux in the comments under that article and I think that’s a great call. I’ll gladly co-opt that pick and give them the credit.

Jesse B: How quick do you think Andy Pages can move through  the minors?
Keith Law: Really depends on the swing-and-miss. I just don’t think we know enough on him to say if he’s 3 years away or 4-5 years.

PJ: I’m curious about your view on eliminating the filibuster.  On one hand, it feels like the Dems could get a lot done in the next 18 months.  On the other hand, the Republicans could EASILY take back the Senate in 2022 or 2024, and there isn’t exactly a Supreme Court Democrats could use as a backstop for terrible far-right legislation that could pass.
Keith Law: It’s starkly anti-democratic and there have been calls to remove it from multiple people across the political spectrum for decades. If removing that restores voting rights before 2022, it’s worth doing.

Randy: Looking for some new places to buy coffee beans online. Any recommendations?
Keith Law: My most recent order was from Deeper Roots in Cincinnati (a Rwanda and an espresso blend).

Scott: I know how strong you feel about domestic abuse, do you think there is a legitimate quasi-every day center fielder option in the Phillies mix right now besides Odubel Hererra? Feels like the team is looking for an excuse not to give him the job but unless they’re believers in Roman Quinn bunting twice a game will they end up throwing their hands up and saying ‘we had no other choice’? How do you rank Kingery/Quinn/Haseley/Moniak/Haseley?
Keith Law: I’d put Kingery there in a heartbeat and put Odubel on a slow boat to nowhere.

Ridley: Editors make writers better and the writer gets credit for it. Bragging about an editor-free platform would be a bit of a self-own, wouldn’t it?

Also, the kind of writer who longs to free themselves from the editors is almost always the kind of writer who most needs them (in my experience, at least).
Keith Law: Sacca did back off his comments, and was gracious about much of the criticism he received. I don’t like seeing anyone kick a group that’s down the way editors – whose jobs have been gradually disappearing for 20 years, because, as you said, they do the work and don’t get credit, so any private equity douchebro could walk in and sack them without compunction – are right now.

JT: Would you let Manoah start the year in the pen, or is the surer way to starting still starting in the minors, such as they are?
Keith Law: I’d be fine starting him in relief and moving him to the rotation in June or so. Great way to break in a young starter.

Gerald: I recall that you were bullish on Ohtani as a pitcher but skeptical that he would be a productive MLB hitter. Has he exceeded your expectations as a hitter and, if so, has anything changed in his approach?
Keith Law: Correct and he has exceeded my expectations, but he also hasn’t really hit full-time. His swing gets so long I’m amazed teams aren’t trying to crush him with velocity inside more often. He has to guess right to get to it.

The Seaward: In spite of the governor’s ridiculous statement, most responsible businesses in Texas still requires masks. What on earth do the Rangers think they’re going to gain on opening day that will be bigger than the hit they’re going to take for the outbreak they cause?
Keith Law: They’re betting, as Gov. Abbott and so many political leaders have, that there won’t be an outbreak, and they’ll avoid any repercussions. Even here in DE, the Governor reopened things too early, and all our indicators are rising again … but it’s slow and nobody is making anything of it, even though the connection between looser restrictions and rising R0 and daily case rates is obvious. We’d need an explosion in cases for anyone to get mad. If there’s no explosion in cases after some Rangers home games, no one will care.

Owen: If killing the filibuster means that DC and/or Puerto Rico get admitted as states and there are 2-4 new Democratic Senators who will make it much harder for the GQP to regain power for the foreseeable future (plus, obviously, restored voting rights), it will be well worth it.
Keith Law: Fair point. Senate aside, there’s no fair and reasoned argument why the 3.8 million U.S. citizens in those two jurisdictions should lack the representations in Congress that the rest of us enjoy.

Punk in Drublic: Who are a few guys outside your top 100 prospects who you think have the most offensive upside?  Thanks.  And keep sticking to whatever is on your mind
Keith Law: Austin Hendrick, Pedro Leon, Jeremiah Jackson, Lewin Diaz, Mark Vientos, Patrick Bailey, Brenton Doyle.

Guest: How should MLB reconcile that the methods to win baseball games most efficiently (lots of swing and miss and K’s and not many balls in play) is completely opposite to the most exciting aspects of the game (balls in play, stolen bases, etc)?  Are there rule changes that could actually be effective instead of “ban the shift” windowdressing?
Keith Law: Sure, but they require will, and agreement on both sides. I like the idea of limiting pickoff throws, because it might increase basestealing, and because pickoff throws are the third most boring thing that can happen in a baseball game (number 2 is a manager arguing with an umpire, especially after he’s been ejected, and number 1 is a brawl).
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat – I have to finish my season predictions column in the next hour. I should be back for another chat next Thursday, and if you haven’t already pre-ordered it, the paperback edition of my second book The Inside Game will be out in just 11 days. Thank you all so much for reading.

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→ March 23, 2021
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Another Round.

Among the Big Six categories at the Oscars, the biggest surprise nomination was, I think, the Best Director nod for Thomas Vinterberg, director and writer of the Danish-language movie Another Round (Druk), which also scored one of the five nominations for Best International Feature Film. The latter is understandable, especially given how universal (if very man-centric) its themes are, but the former … well, I have a feeling it might not entirely be because of Vinterberg’s work on the film, which is streaming on Hulu and can be rented on amazon.

Another Round follows four male, middle-aged high school teachers who are bored with their lives and decide to try to maintain a constant level of intoxication, starting at a .05 BAC, throughout the workday, only stopping at 8 pm. The immediate results are positive – they’re happier, they lighten up, they connect more with their students, and in the case of Martin (Mads Mikkelsen), his marriage seems to improve – but the effects are temporary, and as they decide to push their luck and crank up the BAC, the wheels start to come off for all four of them, forcing them to reconsider their plans and their purpose in this experiment in the first place.

For a movie that touches on some deep material like getting to middle age, thinking your best years might be behind you, wondering if some of your major life choices (at work, in marriage) have been mistakes, Another Round is often delightfully silly. All four lead actors do a pretty good drunk impression, reminiscent of Parks & Recreation‘s Snake Juice episode, and watching these somewhat awkward 40- to 55-year-old men (Mikkelsen is 55, and I don’t think Martin is supposed to be any older than that) dance and stumble about, or even just smile the smile of a mildly inebriated man can be charming – especially since their bad behavior mostly comes at their own expense. The script offers some balance, as one of the men struggles to control his drinking once they start ramping up their BACs, but the general tone is one of seizing life and enjoying the moment – and if a little alcohol helps you get there, what’s the harm?

Martin’s reactions especially seem to reflect those of someone dealing with depression who finally gets some form of treatment, whether CBT or medication, and starts to wake up to the life around him. Danish binge-drinking culture (the film’s Danish title literally means “binge drinking”) is strong enough that the story here probably isn’t metaphorical, but if some viewers’ takeaway is to do something about their midlife malaises, Vinterberg would probably consider that a success. On the other hand, this is a very narrow look at life, very much that of men whose biggest problem in life is ennui. Women are tangential to the story, and the two men of the four who have children aren’t exactly carrying much of the child-rearing load here, while they seem to have job security, without any worries about money or health. That doesn’t detract from the film’s entertainment value, but there’s something very frivolous about the whole exercise that doesn’t compare well to the other leading films from 2020.

Another Round swept the four main awards for which it was nominated at the European Film Awards, winning for Best Picture, Director, Actor (Mikkelsen), and Screenwriter, after winning the same four honors at the Robert-Prisen, the Danish equivalent to the Oscars. That leads to the big surprise in the Academy Award nominations, and the truly tragic story behind Another Round. Vinterberg wrote this story in part with inspiration from his 19-year-old daughter’s stories of the drinking culture of Danish teenagers, but four days after filming began, she was killed in a car accident in Belgium, hit by a truck driver who was looking at his phone and didn’t see that her car had stopped. Filming did resume and Vinterberg dedicated it to her memory. Much of the English-language coverage of the movie has included her death and its effect on both Vinterberg and the film (he altered the script to make it more life-affirming), and I wonder if that drove support for him in this category. There isn’t a great argument on the merits for his nomination over Regina King for One Night in Miami or even Armando Iannucci for the overlooked The Personal History of David Copperfield. This just isn’t that kind of film – it’s good, entertaining, ridiculous in a good way, but I don’t think the direction or script really rise to the level of what I’d expect for a Best Director nominee.

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→ March 21, 2021
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Promising Young Woman.

I still can’t believe Camilla Parker-Bowles is now a two-time Oscar nominee, but she absolutely deserves it.

Emerald Fennell, previously best known for portraying Prince Charles’ affair partner on seasons 3 and 4 of The Crown, now has nominations to her credit for writing the screenplay for and directing Promising Young Woman, a brilliant, shocking, and powerful revenge story that feels incredibly well-timed. Featuring a tremendous lead performance from Carey Mulligan, the film earned five nominations – two for Fennell, one for Mulligan, one for Editing, and, perhaps the big surprise of the five, one for Best Picture. (It’s available to rent on amazon and other streaming services.)

Mulligan plays Cassie, who, as the film opens, is in a bar, alone, and so drunk she can barely sit up straight. A guy in the bar offers to help her get home, but then takes her to his place, where he tries to sexually assault her, at which point Mulligan looks right up at the camera to reveal that she’s stone sober – and she confronts the creep before leaving. This is a regular weekend act for her, and we learn that she dropped out of medical school when her classmate, Nina Fisher, was raped by a classmate at a party, and the school did nothing about it. She’s working in a hipster coffee shop when another classmate, Ryan (Bo Burnham), walks in, and the two start gradually start to have a meet-cute – just at the same time that Cassie gets wind that Nina’s rapist is about to get married, at which point she launches a more elaborate plan to take revenge on everyone involved in the rape and abortive investigation.

Fennell leaves all kinds of clues in the film to indicate that Cassie’s calm exterior demeanor hides the fact that she’s not quite right. Over the course of the story, we learn how Cassie’s life seems to have just stopped after the assault and immediate aftermath. She lives with her parents, who say she has no friends and hasn’t had a boyfriend in years. She’s still wearing a childlike pattern of pastel colors on her nails. Her wardrobe, which seems rather extensive, often veers towards clothing maybe ten years too young for her. She’s supposed to be 30, but alternates between looking 25 and 40 throughout the film. She’s our heroine, and there’s a distinct pleasure in watching her dish it out to various awful men across the film, but there’s also something amiss here, from how and why she left medical school on to just how deranged her plans for the rapist and his enablers are, and Fennell does a spectacular job of balancing those elements so that the conclusion can still work.

The ending is shocking and the subject of many thinkpieces already – this Variety piece has spoilers and does an excellent job breaking it down, and the video with Fennell and Mulligan is well worth the time – and I haven’t stopped thinking about it since we watched the movie. Listening to Fennell in that video, in addition to getting a window on to her brilliance as a writer, changed how I interpreted the ending, and that in turn changed some of my thoughts on what came before. Cassie’s life just stopped after Nina was assaulted and everyone – the school administrators, most of their classmates, even one of Nina and Cassie’s best friends – chose to look the other way, and as the film progresses it becomes clearer that the revenge fantasy is at least mixed with the story of Cassie’s unraveling, a satirical condemnation of a system stacked against victims but also a tragedy of a woman whose promise – who was, at least, on her way to living the life her parents wanted for her – is gone. The fact that Cassie would take the risks she ultimately takes without any regard for the effect her injury or death might have on her parents, for example, is a mostly unspoken indicator that Fennell didn’t write Cassie as a flawless heroine.

I’ve seen four of the five Best Actress nominees so far, and Mulligan would be my pick for the award, although the one I haven’t seen is Andra Day, who won the Golden Globe in this category, and the other three nominees are all outstanding – this might be the most loaded category of the season. I’ve also seen four of the five Best Original Screenplay nominees (I’m waiting on Minari), and would choose this over Sound of Metal, Judas and the Black Messiah, or the extra-Sorkiny The Trial of the Chicago 7. I wouldn’t put it over Nomadland for Best Picture, but it might be my #2, with Minari and The Father still on my list to see. I’ll be pulling for this to take home those two honors, though, as it’s tremendous even when there are minor plot points I wish had unfurled differently.

(My wife and I discuss every movie we watch at length, so her opinions always appear somewhere in these reviews, but here she deserves particular credit for shaping my interpretation of this film. As a man, there are issues here I’ve just never had to face in the world, and her perspective was invaluable.)

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→ March 20, 2021
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Stick to baseball, 3/20/21.

I had one new post for subscribers to the Athletic this week, looking at some breakout candidates for 2021. A reader suggested Gavin Lux in the comments as well, and I agree with them – he’s also a very good bet to break out, especially since it seems like he’s going to get the playing time to do so.

On the Keith Law Show this week, I spoke to my friend Tim Grierson about his new book This is How You Make a Movie, the Oscar nominations, and his Cardinal fandom. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify.

For more of me, you can subscribe to my free email newsletter. Also, you can still buy The Inside Game and Smart Baseball anywhere you buy books; the paperback edition of The Inside Game will be out on April 6th.

And now, the links…

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→ March 18, 2021
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Mank.

Mank led all films with ten Oscar nominations this year, and after seeing the film (which is on Netflix), my reaction is best summed up by the GIF of Ryan Reynolds saying, “but why?” I think the answer is actually obvious – it’s a talky black-and-white movie about Hollywood, all things the voters find hard to resist – but it doesn’t make it any easier to accept this adequate if somewhat boring movie taking home spots that could have gone to many more deserving films.

Mank is Herman Mankiewicz, a cantankerous screenwriter who was often called in to ‘fix’ scripts by other writers from the 1920s through the 1940s, and who worked with Orson Welles on the script for Citizen Kane, which won them both the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. The film tells the story of the writing of that script, with flashbacks explaining how Mank managed to become persona non grata in much of Hollywood, and his relationship with actress Marion Davies and partnership with her nephew Charles Lederer.

I really enjoy some of Orson Welles’ work, and appreciate Citizen Kane for its artistic merit and historical importance, and I can certainly get into some making-of stories, but I can’t express how little I cared about what was happening on the screen in Mank. It’s the story of a self-destructive white man handed one gift after another only to throw them away via drink, gambling, or just general assholery. It’s also told through a poorly-structured series of flashbacks that bounce around in time so often it makes it too hard to follow when things are happening, especially since Gary Oldman is 20 years older than Mankiewicz was in 1940, when the latter wrote Citizen Kane, and thus nearly 30 years older than Mankiewicz is supposed to be in flashbacks, with no real concession made to the age gap.

Oldman is busy chewing scenery when he isn’t throwing it back up, and it’s especially frustrating because it seems like he took the message the Academy gave him when they named him Best Actor for a lengthy Winston Churchill impression in Darkest Hour as a sign to go even further in this direction, forgetting the actor he showed he could be in Léon, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, or even Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, where he used his scene-chewing ability to far better purpose. Amanda Seyfried earned her first Oscar nomination for her work here as Davies in a role that doesn’t have a lot of screen time and is probably most notable for her accent here; I’m not sure she does much more than Lily Collins does as Mank’s amanuensis Rita, and really none of the women here are that well-written in the first place. The most compelling supporting performance might be Tom Burke’s as Welles; Burke absolutely nails Welles’ voice in a way I found thoroughly distracting (in a good way), although he loses it a little in a critical scene late in the film where he and Mankiewicz feud and break over the final edits and what credit Mank might receive.

Mank is just so self-indulgent and so insular that I couldn’t help but think back to The Artist, which won Best Picture a decade ago for being a black-and-white movie that told everyone how great movies are, as well as for its central gimmick as a mostly-silent film. They’re movies that appeal not just to the presumed interests of Academy voters, but to their identities: Both give movies an importance beyond reality, and, unfortunately, both rely on the assumption that viewers will care far more about inside-baseball stories about how movies are made than they actually do. The best movies about making movies are great movies first that happen to have elements of moviemaking within their stories – Singin’ in the Rain, ostensibly a story about the first talkies, is far more a tale of fakery and integrity, along with a slapdash romance and some great dance numbers; Boogie Nights, a movie about the golden age of porn, is really about this group of misfits and outcasts who form (and break) familial bonds while working in an industry that embraces them for their weirdness. Mank is a movie about a white guy who got more chances than he deserved and drank them all away. It made me want to pour myself a tall one more than it made me want to go watch Citizen Kane or any of the classic films of that era.

As for those nominations, David Fincher getting a Best Director nod over Regina King for One Night in Miami is just … it’s exhausting. And that latter film missing out on Best Picture with two slots still unfilled and Mank getting one of the eight nominations is baffling. I’d have given Gary Oldman’s spot in Best Actor to Dev Patel for David Copperfield, and I think it’s telling that Mank‘s screenwriter, Fincher’s father Jack, didn’t get a nomination for Best Original Screenplay, especially with the intricate flashback sequences making this story harder to follow. Fincher’s done some great work, and this project had to be more personal to him than anything he’s done before, but if this film had received a theatrical release, I bet it would have tanked, and perhaps taken some of its Oscar helium with it.

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→ March 17, 2021
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Sound of Metal.

This week’s Oscar nominations included a bunch of surprises, including Sound of Metal, available now on Amazon Prime, earning a Best Picture nod among its six overall nominations. It’s an extraordinarily well-acted piece, with well-earned nominations for Riz Ahmed and Paul Raci, with a story that has its heart in the right place but that has some plot holes I found it impossible to overlook.

Ahmed plays Ruben, the drummer for a two-piece hard rock band called Blackgammon along with his girlfriend, singer-guitarist Lou (Olivia Cooke). During one of their shows, he notices his hearing has almost vanished, and a subsequent trip to a doctor reveals that he’s lost about ¾ of his hearing, and while Ruben doesn’t want to accept it at first, it’s permanent and will require him giving up his career. He’s also a recovering addict, clean for four years, but when he tells Lou about his hearing loss, she freaks out and calls his sponsor, who quickly arranges a place for him a house for deaf people recovering from addiction run by Joe (Raci). Ruben spends at least several weeks at the house, gradually adjusting to his deafness, learning American Sign Language and working with some deaf kids at a local camp, but still wants to get the implants he thinks will save his hearing and his career – but that doesn’t work out at all like he planned.

Ahmed and Raci are this film, no offense to Cooke, who is fine in a modest role (other than her eyebrows, which appear to have been bleached in an unfortunate industrial accident). Ahmed wears this haunted look through so much of Sound of Metal that defines Ruben’s inability or unwillingness to accept his deafness, and that cuts through even scenes where he’s supposed to be happy. You can feel his frustration at the hand he’s been dealt – or that he’s dealt himself through his music, although that question is never acknowledged in the film – in almost every scene, but when he can no longer deny that he’s never getting back to where he once was, Ahmed delivers a moment that drives home the devastation. Raci’s nomination has to be the feel-good story of awards season, as he’s 72, with a limited resume in film and TV; Wikipedia has him appearing in just seven films before this, all in minor roles. Raci is the son of deaf parents, so he knew ASL already and I presume is very familiar with deaf culture, but without the credibility and compassion he provides in his role as the leader of the rehab house and a mentor who takes a particular interest in Ruben’s case, the film wouldn’t work. Once he exits the story, you can feel a little of the air escape, because the interactions between Ruben and Joe are the center of the film, and also its most credible elements.

The script works too hard to get Ruben to the rehab house, and struggles to give him a realistic path once he leaves. Ruben sees one doctor for a hearing test, and the doctor tells him about cochlear implants, but there’s no extensive consultation and somehow Ruben thinks the implants will restore his previous hearing – continuing to believe this right up until he gets the implants and has them activated. You don’t get cochlear implants without a long consultation first, and no doctor is going to wait until after the surgery (as Ruben’s does) to explain that implants don’t let you hear through your ears again. When Ruben reveals his deafness to Lou, she immediately reacts as if he’s relapsed, before he’s shown any indications of a problem. After Ruben gets his cochlear implants and asks Joe if he can stay a few more weeks while he waits for the activation, Joe tells him to leave immediately – which itself seems unrealistic, and antithetical to this sort of self-help program – and somehow Ruben, who said he was broke, ends up on a plane to Paris, where he shows up at the house of Lou’s father, who has never met Ruben and didn’t seem to know he was coming. There are just too many of these little plot conveniences for the film’s good, especially since some of them could have been addressed with modest changes.

The film landed six nominations, including the two for Ahmed and Raci; Ahmed has no chance to win against the late Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) but would certainly be a worthy winner, while Raci seems like he’s going to lose to Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) yet would also be deserving of the award. I understand both of those nominations as well as the one for Best Sound, since so much here depends on the way the movie manipulates sound, often putting you into Ruben’s head to show how little he’s hearing. The nomination for Best Original Screenplay, however, seems to reward Sound of Metal for its greatest weakness – a script that takes shortcuts to get its main character where he needs to be – and why the movie ultimately fell short of Best Picture status for me.

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→ March 15, 2021
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Stick to baseball, 3/15/21.

I have one new post up for subscribers to the Athletic, looking at prospects I can’t wait to see when minor league games resume. I also held a Klawchat last week.

On the Keith Law Show last week, I spoke with Cleveland right-hander Triston McKenzie about his development as a pitcher and his experiences as a Black ballplayer. On this week’s episode, I spoke with film critic Tim Grierson about his new book This is How You Make a Movie, the Oscar nominations, and his Cardinal fandom. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify.

Over at Paste, I reviewed the new game Holi: Festival of Colors, played on a 3-D board that’s immediately striking and that lends itself to some novel strategies, with almost no random elements at all.

For more of my writing, you can subscribe to my free email newsletter. Also, you can still buy The Inside Game and Smart Baseball anywhere you buy books; the paperback edition of The Inside Game will be out in April.

And now, the links…

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