→ July 17, 2021
→ By

Stick to baseball, 7/17/21.

All of my draft coverage is now up for subscribers to The Athletic, including my team-by-team draft recaps, posted by division:
• AL East
• AL Central
• AL West
• NL East
• NL Central
• NL West

I also recapped the Futures Game with notes on prospects who stood out or who I saw for the first time. I held a Klawchat on Friday.

And now, the links…

  • Longreads first: A new preprint on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 states that “there is substantial body of scientific evidence supporting a zoonotic origin for SARS-CoV-2” and “there is currently no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 has a laboratory origin.” This failed hypothesis isn’t just the province of the right-wing; the anti-GMO movement has also latched on to it.
  • A conservative activist invented the nontroversy over critical race theory. If someone tells you CRT is bad, just ask them to name an author who’s written about it, or a book on the subject. Like this Alabama columnist did to a state lawmaker.
  • This ran a few weeks ago, during my hiatus from these posts, but former sportswriter Kat O’Brien detailed how she was raped by a major league ballplayer while she was on the Rangers beat.
  • Influencers who peddle anti-vaccine misinformation are raking in cash from their efforts. It’s almost entirely a grift, with a societal cost measured in bodies.
  • The Delta variant’s threat explained in three simple points by Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Ed Yong.
  • The “mystery Chinese seeds” that made the rounds of the news last summer? Probably just a brushing scam.
  • Why don’t we have a vaccine against Lyme disease? It’s complicated. Anti-vaxxers, a dubious claim about side effects, and the regional nature of the disease all contributed.
  • A nurse in Louisiana who posted anti-vaccine views and misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines has, in fact, died of COVID-19.
  • Poynter spoke to Walter Hussman, the conservative megadonor to UNC who led the school to deny Nikole Hannah-Jones tenure and ultimately cost them her services. He doesn’t think he did anything wrong, but also disputes some of the story that’s been publicly reported.
  • MEL magazine is coming back.
  • A power plant in upstate New York is primarily powering a bitcoin mining operation, warming Seneca Lake and polluting the air (as well as contributing to climate change). I’m not sure what the solution is – taxing bitcoin is the most rational economic move, but tricky because of its nature – but cryptocurrencies are an environmental threat that demands some sort of government action.
  • Why did three people in different states contract the often-fatal tropical bacterial disease melioidosis?
  • The state of Alabama took a man’s gun after he shot his wife. Nine months later, they gave it back to him, despite a protection order, and he used it to kill her. I’m sure the fact that he was a cop had nothing to do with this.
  • Men read far fewer books by women than women do. This has real-world implications for the way readers’ minds work.
Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: , , , , , , ,
→ July 16, 2021
→ By

Klawchat 7/16/21.

Starting at 3 pm ET. My team-by-team draft recaps are now up for subscribers to The Athletic:
• AL East
• AL Central
• AL West
• NL East
• NL Central
• NL West

Keith Law: D4 damage with the ill behavior. Klawchat.

Debbie: What kind of offensive ceiling does Francisco Alvarez possess? Did his Future Game BP change your raw power grade on him?
Keith Law: I think it’s 70 power, but no, I didn’t change anything off the Futures Game look. I’d just seen him two weeks earlier in regular games anyway.

Carl: Can Cole Winn be a mid-rotation starter? Despite the home run during the Futures Game, he looked impressive.
Keith Law: He did look impressive and that’s what I think he is.

mike sixel: Buxton: traded in the next 12 months, or signed to stay in MN? How about Berrios?
Keith Law: I’d guess they sign Buxton and trade Berrios. Buxton might give them some discount given how often he’s been hurt. I can’t see them going 5 years on Berrios, but he could get that in free agency.

Joel: Hi, Keith. Thanks for the fantastic draft coverage throughout the past three months. If you were given the authority to make unilateral changes to improve the draft, what changes would you make?
Keith Law: Make picks tradeable, first and foremost. I’d also consider a lottery for the top picks in the draft, or something to deter any thought of teams tanking (although I doubt anyone is explicitly tanking for draft position).

JJ: Are Jarren Duran’s home/road splits a concern?  The new ballpark in Worcester seems to be a hitter’s park.
Keith Law: It is a hitter’s park – it’s on a hill, right? – but his power is real.

Robert: 20 pitchers! It’s concerning that despite going pitching heavy the last few years they still felt the need to do this.
Keith Law: It’s a gimmick, I think. But I like what they did up top.

David: Any idea what’s wrong with Blake Snell? He’s denied injury but has looked utterly lost on the mound this year.
Keith Law: I’m assuming it’s an injury of some sort.

Nacho: Thoughts on Brennan Davis? Futures game aside, he’s seems to be making adjustments and is crushing AA at a young age. Could he be a top 25 prospect by year-end?
Keith Law: He’s top 50 now, at least. I’m a fan.

Jon G: The Cubs used their first two picks on day 3 on preps that publicly said no within a day. Is this necessarily a sign of bad process within the draft room?
Keith Law: No, those picks are usually throwaways, or just senior signs to fill rosters.
Keith Law: You take those HS kids on the off chance that they come to their senses change their minds before heading to college.

Nils: What exactly makes a pitcher “home run prone”?  Hear that as a knock on some prospects, but is that a trait that is fixable?
Keith Law: Usually it’s a fastball thing – their fastballs lack life or movement, and if they get too much of the heart of the zone, hitters hit them. Far.

Himself: When a team like the pirates are able to draft 4 elite guys like they did, are they concerned that they’ll be available at each pick or fairly certain because of the relative cost and bonus pool management for other clubs?
Keith Law: Those teams have negotiated with those players’ advisers to come to verbal agreements – if your player is there, we will take him and pay him $X – and the advisers will then try to deter other teams from taking those players.
Keith Law: There are no guarantees, but that’s the tacit agreement that holds up the system.

Shaughn B: Hey Keith, read the recaps – thanks for those! Were there any team drafts you thought were more in line with the approach you would’ve taken? Any that went way against the grain of an approach you agree with?
Keith Law: The Phillies went heavy on high school pitching, which you know I don’t favor, especially not in the first round. I think the Reds had my favorite draft and the one that most mirrored my philosophy.

Nate: It’s been a very disappointing season to be a Twins fan, but one of the pleasant surprises has been seeing Jose Miranda’s improvement. How much has his outlook changed from a year ago? Can he be an everyday third baseman?
Keith Law: I loved him in his draft year and the Twins, to their credit, have always been steadfast in their (outward) belief that he’d hit. He could be a regular, yes.

John: Aside from the feature ASG events themselves, how was your experience in Denver this week?
Keith Law: Great! Good city for this event. Loved that I could walk everywhere. Had amazing coffee at Little Owl and grade 80 sushi at Sushi Den. The light rail is great too. Not sure where the city put all the oxygen, though.

Eric: With the performance of Tork, Greene & Dingler, not to mention the emergence of Baddoo, is it fair to say Detroit’s rebuild all of a sudden looks much more promising than one might have thought before the season?
Keith Law: Yes, I think so. Manning’s regression hurts a little.

John: The Red Sox seem to think their history with training hitters means they can fix the holes in Fabian’s swing.  Any reason to believe that?
Keith Law: Didn’t work with Dalbec. It’s not a “hole” per se but a complete and utter inability to make an adjustment. He couldn’t hit sliders when the season started, and he couldn’t hit them when the season ended.

Sandy Alderson: Is Rocker’s ETA 2022?
Keith Law: Maybe end of 2022, but I’d rather take it a little slower with him than I would with Leiter.

John: What’s the youngest player that you’ve ever scouted?
Keith Law: I saw Bryce Harper at 15. I was in the DR once, primarily to see Cuban free agent Eddy Julio Martinez, and saw some 14-year-olds. Stir Candelario, who is now in the Rays’ system, was one of them.

Bill S.: Keith – great work on the draft!  Your work is very much appreciated.  Regarding Henry Davis – he impressed me when I listened to him on your podcast this spring.  He seems very confident and cerebral, yet humble.  Seemed to have strong leadership qualities.  When evaluating a prospect for the draft, how much stock do teams put in those characteristics?  Thank you.
Keith Law: Some teams weigh that stuff extremely heavily, some don’t care at all. I would consider this kind of makeup – he made it very clear he’s a student of the game and determined to improve even in small areas. I wouldn’t be as concerned with leadership skills; not every player has to be a leader and I think in general teams that do weigh that characteristic end up putting too much weight on it because it is impossible to objectively measure.

Reb Wiseau: Will Marcelo Mayer need appreciably more money over slot to sign with the Sox?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine why.

Pat: Did the Cubs just get Bryce Ball Player, or Bryce Broken Prospect?
Keith Law: He’s flawed, but has real power. The lost year really kills players like him.

Cole: As an Angels fan, I was pretty upset with Bachman over Rocker at 9 when it first happened, but the more I look into Bachman, the more intrigued I am. What are your thoughts on that specific decision?
Keith Law: Rocker is the better prospect, but by a small margin.
Keith Law: He’s also never missed a start, as far as I know, and Bachman did.

Sean: Thoughts on detmers at the futures game?  When will he be ready for the major league rotation?
Keith Law: He was in my Futures Game writeup. I would absolutely call him up this year.

Hanyo: I know it’s early for the 2022 draft, but since Conor Prielipp is most likely out for the entire 2022 season, how would you expect teams to look at him draft wise barring any setbacks? 1st round? Or is it more likely he comes back for the 2023 season to prove himself and that he’s healthy?
Keith Law: Teams really have no looks at him in college – 4 starts last year, 3 abbreviated ones this year, and then he blew out. The timing was terrible for him … but if ever there was a prospect who should consider the Draft League, it’s him. He’d be 13-14 months off surgery then. He could go to the Cape too, as long as he’s healthy.

Schmo: Do you see the draft being longer than 20 rounds in the future? I don’t see a reason for it, considering the cut short season leagues
Keith Law: Nope. It might end up shorter.

Kevin: how high as a newly drafted prospect debuted on your top 100 prospects? Has one every been a top 10 prospect?
Keith Law: Yes, almost certain that’s happened with Harper & Strasburg. I’m looking Harper up now…
Keith Law: Harper was #2 going into 2011, after Trout. That’s the record.

JP: The Braves have had many pitching prospects throughout their rebuild and recent success, with Muller maybe the last of the group from the rebuild years. Is Fried, Anderson and some of Soroka about right for what should have been expected from that group? It feels 1-2 players too low.
Keith Law: I hoped they’d get more out of that group – Toussaint, Wright, Wilson, Newcomb – but the clock hasn’t run out on them all, either. Maybe one or more of those guys find success elsewhere.

Schmo: What are your thoughts on a strategy about drafting guys after the 10th round? Think teams should go for a mix of unsignable, fringe signable, and signable guys, go for mostly fringe signable guys since it won’t lose any bonus money to not sign them, or go for mostly signable guys?
Keith Law: In the 11th and 12th rounds you should just take the best guys still on the board and offer them all your extra pool money, if you have any. Or, if they change their minds at the last second, you hold their rights.
Keith Law: After that just take the best guys you can for the limit and for whom you have playing time.

Joel: Keith, there’s been a lot of reporting about what a hard worker Henry Davis is, with a true drive to get better and maximize his talent. Honestly, I’ve always been somewhat skeptical about these accounts because they tend to feed into the traditional sports narrative of hard-working white guys vs. people of color relying on their natural ability. When you were working for the Blue Jays did you try to assess intangibles like attitude and, if so, how did you do it?
Keith Law: It’s more than that – players of color are far too often assumed to not work hard. The right way to interpret those data would be to gather all of it from your scouts, and then check to see if they have any implicit biases and adjust those makeup grades accordingly, That is, if Johnny Scout always has Black players’ makeup grades 5 points below those of white players, you adjust so they’re on the same scale. (And then maybe show Johnny the data and explain what’s going on.)

Sam: Where does Mayer fit into Boston’s rankings, for you? New #1?
Keith Law: I’m going to write a piece for next week on which teams just drafted their new #1 prospects. It’s fewer than usual, I think, in part because you had teams drafting high who already have elite prospects in their systems (Detroit, Baltimore).

TorkelsonMVP2028: If you were the Tigers GM, who would you have taken at 3? I feel like the selection of Jobe is textbook base rate neglect. The opportunity cost just isn’t there. Mayer or Kahlil Watson were my preferences.
Keith Law: Yep, Mayer would have been my pick.

Warbiscuit: I know you’re not a fan of comparing your lists compared to others, but MLB.com and BA and a few others had Ryan Bliss ranked around the 60’s-70’s range while you had him ranked 38 in your list and mocked him as the 28 pick. Do you think he will stick at SS(where others don’t think he will) or do you really believe in the bat? I know you liked he proved himself in the SEC.
Keith Law: I think he stays at shortstop, enough of a chance that it justified the higher ranking. The mocks were based on teams showing interest, though, not my personal opinion.

Preston: My 9-year-old just finished first year of kid pitch and got to play some catcher. But I’m burying the lede. He’s lefthanded! Are you coming across any LH catchers? And what’s the rationale against it from a strategic standpoint? There are so many RH hitters it would disrupt throwing out baserunners, though nobody steals anymore …
Keith Law: If your kid is LH and throws hard at all, he’s going to end up on the mound.

Nathan: There are some players that have been openly against vaccines (Simmons comes to mind).  Do you think less of them as a result?
Keith Law: I think less of them as people, not as players.

Mac: its fairly obvious money is the biggest factor in the MLB draft. What has to be changed to make talent the biggest factor?
Keith Law: Hard slotting would do that. It would also completely fuck the players over, especially the best ones.

Zach: Which twins arm of winder, balazovic or Duran do you have the most faith in?
Keith Law: Balazovic, Winder, Duran, in that order.

Bob: Has Vlad exceeded your expectations at this point or simply lived up to what you expected?
Keith Law: This is what he was supposed to be. Just took him an extra year or so.

Buster Bluth: Do you consider yourself high, low or about even with other scouts on Jarren Duran?  And does it seem odd to you to make the call when Kikè was finally starting to hit a little bit to go with the excellent defense?
Keith Law: Kiké is who he is. What he did in the last two weeks doesn’t change that at all.

Brett: Best chance of becoming a GUY between Tyler Freeman, Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Volpe?
Keith Law: Volpe, Gunnar, Freeman, in that order.

Sam Tiger: What do you think the upside is of Dillion Dingler?
Keith Law: All-Star catcher.

Guest: Your Yankees review was better than I expected (given that Sweeney was something like 89th on your top 100 and I don’t think Selvidge or Beck were in your top 100). Do you get the sense that Selvidge (and maybe Fitts) gets any overslot deal? Do they have a chance of signing either of the post 10th round high school Seans? (Hermann and Hard)
Keith Law: Selvidge and Fitts were better prospects in October than now, and I think they have to take less than they probably expected. I wonder if they can sign Hard because he’s a local kid and played on their scout teams. They were one of the only teams scouting him the day I saw him.

Arnold: Will Bednar’s draft stock rose through the College World Series as he pitched the Mississippi State Bulldogs to the national title, but with only two proven good pitches–fastball and slider–does he have enough for the major league level or can he develop his change-up that he did not have to use much in college?
Keith Law: I don’t really believe his stock rose then – he wasn’t as good as he was in his last outing every time out.
Keith Law: I wrote about his strengths and weaknesses in the Giants team report (linked up top).

Eh Team: Did Arizona really pick Lawlar without a deal in place?
Keith Law: Maybe. I mean, if he wants to walk away from $5.7MM+ and go to college, go for it. I don’t think any player has ever turned down a bonus that large.

Owen Sharts Stanalyticsplant: Is there any hope for an AFL season this year?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything yet. I am afraid they’ll cancel it to save the $4.73 they spend on the league each year.

The Jolly Roger: Adam Frazier for Nick Madrigal. Who says no?
Keith Law: Man, that is really interesting. I would guess the White Sox would say no … but it seems good for both sides, especially with Chicago in great position to win this year.

Bob: Gunnar Hogland might be a great pick for the Jays at 19, but what is the track record of pitchers who have had TJ in college?
Keith Law: I don’t believe it’s any different from pitchers who’ve had it in the minors.

Neez Duts: Why is the futures game just 7 innings? That maybe gives you one at bat for the prospects who start out on the bench. I hope they go back to 9 inning games in the future (totally intended)
Keith Law: Because of fears they wouldn’t have enough pitching for 9 innings. I hate the 7-inning format and hate that it’s on TV against a full slate of 15 MLB games.
Keith Law: Just do it another night. Do it Monday afternoon. Do it literally any other time the field is available.

Stevo: Hi Keith, thanks for the chat. How surprised were you that Rocker landed in the Mets’ lap?
Keith Law: I wasn’t, I mentioned that possibility at least a month ago. Everyone knew it was in play, at least.

Alex: Do you think the Orioles’ farm system has improved overall since the start of the season with the positive developments of Rodriguez, Henderson, Rutschman, Hall (barring health) etc.? What is their biggest need?
Keith Law: Yes, so far, so good, other than Kjerstad (totally beyond their control). Solid start for Joey Ortiz too. They still need more pitching, but who doesn’t?

buccoguin: Do teams have “agreements” or at least detailed conversations about demands with certain players.  IE did the Pirates have a good idea what Chandler and White would require to get them out of their football commitments?
Keith Law: Oh absolutely.

Tom: We should be expecting a very different Kelenic this time around, right?
Keith Law: Yes, I predict he has at least one hit in his first 35 at bats.

Guest: Damon Oppenheimer said that Brendon Beck is a guy who could move quickly and doesn’t have much to work on- just get innings. Do you agree and does that timeline sound like 1st half of next year for a debut?
Keith Law: I agree. Low ceiling, high floor.

John: You had Jarren Duran at #93 on your prospects list in the offseason. Approximately how far would he have moved up the list if you updated the ranking now?
Keith Law: I’m updating it next week. I’ll have to decide if I include players in the majors who haven’t exceeded rookie limits, though.

BD: Nats draft you said was low ceiling?   Why?
Keith Law: I said that because it was low ceiling (after House, who is all ceiling, no floor).

buccoguin: Thoughts on Mitch Keller at this point in the season?  Was he overhyped or just a rough start to his career?
Keith Law: He has needed a pitch for lefties for four years now, and we’ve seen no change (pun intended). He seems like a good candidate for a splitter, which would help solve the problem.

Brett: The Royals have been heavily criticized for taking prep arms with their early picks this draft. Dayton Moore stated they did this because they didn’t want college guys with “4th or 5th starter ceilings.” Besides seeming like an unnecessary shot at his 2018 class of college arms, do you see this as being a valid defense? Were the college arms available to KC at 7 “4th or 5th starter ceiling” types? I certainly hadn’t seen that ceiling placed on Rocker.
Keith Law: Even if that’s true, it omits the part about college starter prospects often having higher floors.
Keith Law: Rocker ain’t a 4th/5th starter, either. Nor is Bachman.

El Guapo: Jo Adele’s k% is below 24% and his OPS is north of .900 for the last month at AAA. It’s a small sample but the trend lines across all of his AAA works supports this directional improvement. This is basically what he was doing at AA in 2019 when everyone had him as a top 10-15 prospects at worst. He’s still only 22 and by most statistical standards doing well in AAA. Is this a case where we can’t unsee 2020? Or is there still a star player on there?
Keith Law: There ight still be a star there, but Salt Lake is a great place to hit, and I’m sure AAA pitching looks a good bit easier to hit than what he saw in the majors. He has to come back up to the majors at some point and show the progress is real.

Joe D.: Any idea how far over slot the Dodgers will have to go to sign Heubeck?  I assume Bruns will sign under-slot to balance things out within their draft pool?
Keith Law: I think they’ll go under in most of the rounds from 4 to 10 to cover any shortfall.

Guest: Do you see Pratto and Witt being promoted to Triple A this year?
Keith Law: Witt yes. Pratto maybe.
Keith Law: Witt will be up in September. I don’t have inside info; I’m just speculating based on how they feel about him. And I’m in favor of the move.

Noah: What do you think about a Duran Duran cover band called Jarren Duran?  “His name Jarren and he bats with his left hand.” (to the tune of “Rio”)
Keith Law: Needs work.

buccoguin: Just curious what makes some questions attractive and others not?  What is your question to answer ratio?  Cheers
Keith Law: I am lucky if I answer 20% of what I get. I do try to answer questions I haven’t answered in articles already, though.

TomBruno23: My son is in a 6U league and is showing pretty strong exit velocity and launch angle. One more game on the slate if you want to hit up the Ballwin Athletic Association Field #7 later this afternoon.
Keith Law: I heard his makeup is terrible.

James: I’ve seen most people speculating Rocker’s ETA as 2022. Can you elaborate on how himself and his situation differs from Crochet who was able to be a bullpen piece for the Sox down the stretch of his draft year
Keith Law: Because Rocker is a starter and Crochet is a reliever.

Finny: What’s up with Jesus Luzardo? He has been a hot mess, even after his demotion. Is it mechanical? Lost confidence? Or is he just not as good as we thought?
Keith Law: He’s good when healthy, but is infrequently healthy. Maybe he’s just not 100% right now, but not hurt enough for the IL?

Robbie: Not much of a question – but have to see this all star week as a monumental success for the future of the MLB. While Manfred and other’s try and hold back the game, the younger generation of the game puts baseball in the best place that it has been in in a long time. Ohtani’s all star jersey is up for auction for over 100K!
Keith Law: Yes. And I think the draft event was a big success.

TJ: Klaw, working under the presumption that both Jobe and Mayer have similar odds of success, why would a team pick a player who contributes once every five days over one who contributes every day?
Keith Law: A starting pitcher has several times more impact on his days than a position player does on any one of his days.

frank: SSS aside, Based on the reports about volpe, do you think he would have gone higher in the draft?
Keith Law: No. He didn’t show these tools in HS – especially not the speed – and that class of HS position player has historically been disdained by scouts/directors. Now this year it’s different. I wonder if him going off and Nick Yorke holding his own is causing the pendulum to swing too far the other way. We can be sheep sometimes.

Johann Sebastian Vogelbach: This is from a bit out of left field but am I crazy for thinking “innings” limits are a bit silly when what should really be tracked are total pitches? Am I thinking far too much into it or is it likely teams are aware that pitches more precisely capture workload instead of innings
Keith Law: Teams use pitch counts. And more.

Ryan: MLB.com said that Lawlar was the highest ranked player on the Dbacks board. Have you heard if this is true?
Keith Law: Yes, I’m 99% sure that’s right.

Taylor: Is Jordan Lawlar the Dbacks highest upside position player since Justin Upton? Also, Kevin Goldstein said that Lawlar night be a tough sign and there’s concerns he may go to Vanderbilt. Have you heard these signability concerns with him?
Keith Law: I wrote about those concerns before the draft – that if he didn’t go 6th, he might go to school.

Mike: You still wear husky sized jeans ?
Keith Law: Someone clearly has no idea what I look like.

Nate: What position do you like bubba Chandler at? Should the pirates let him pitch and hit for at least a couple of years?
Keith Law: Pitcher. Don’t fuck around with two-way stuff. Just let these kids learn one thing.

Jay: Has Biden being President caused noticeable traffic issues for you in Wilmington with frequent visits?
Keith Law: We do get JoeJams near here sometimes.
Keith Law: It’s only on certain weekends, though, and you just avoid 141 & Barley Mill road. You see the electronic signs that say “NO DRONES” and you know Joe’s home.
Keith Law: I’ve got to run, but thank you all for the questions and for the kind words on my writeups this week. Stay safe!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With:
→ July 8, 2021
→ By

Klawchat 7/8/21.

My sort-of-final mock draft will go up Friday morning at The Athletic.

Keith Law: And I feel like a beetle on its back. Klawchat.

barbeach: So happy for another Klawchat! So tired of watching Brett Gardner and Rougned Odor strike out…is promoting Hoy Jun Park from Scranton a legit option for 2B/SS/OF?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. Would be nice to see him get a shot but this is way out of line with anything he’s done before.

Howie: Hi Keith, thank you for these chats. If you were running the Yankees, would you consider a moderate sell off? Gio, Britton, Green? A larger sell off including Judge? The self imposed limitations to the luxury tax were seemingly imposed by Hal, but this team would be in a better place with different SP acquisitions this offseason. Yeah – captain obvious, pointing out the obvious…Thanks again!
Keith Law: I can’t imagine ownership allowing a sell-off, but they’re also not far enough out of the race to justify that right now. If they have a Cubs-level meltdown in the next two weeks, perhaps.

Annan: Spencer Strider have a chance to be a GUY?
Keith Law: Outside chance, but keep in mind he had no business in low A to start the year. Double A is a much better test of his secondary stuff.

Greg: Any rumors on which high schoolers could price themselves to college?
Keith Law: I mean, yes, and no. Most of that stuff is bullshit for posturing purposes. Lorenzo Carrier took his name out of the draft. I heard Thatcher Hurd might. But anyone else is just jockeying for more money – and there is a TON of money to be spent in the supplemental and second rounds.

Mike: Any rumors on what the Red Sox might be thinking at 4? Seems like if Leiter isn’t there it’s pretty wide open as to what they’ll do.
Keith Law: If Leiter isn’t there I’m pretty sure they’d take Davis. Rocker is also a possibility. That’s probably it – definitely not wide open.

G: I was disappointed to see Roansy Contreras recent forearm tightness will prevent him from pitching in the Futures Game. Potential injury issues notwithstanding, did his early season velocity bump and improved results elevate him above other pitchers like Priester in the Pirates organization, and was he looking like a  top-100 contender in a mid-season update?
Keith Law: I usually do a top 50 midseason, not 100, but Contreras would be in the latter group not the former.

Jason: I saw your tweet recently about Luis Urias production since moving off SS. Do you think he can be a GUY at 3B for the brewers in the short and longer term?
Keith Law: Yes. I thought 2B would be better for his defensive skill set, but either way, getting him off shortstop should help him. He could always put the bat on the ball.

Danny: I think you’ve praised Anthony Volpe in recent chats and on twitter (even giving a mea culpa). He was your 18th ranked Yankee prospect coming into the season. Where do you think he roughly ranks on their list now? Top 3 or 4 behind Peraza?
Keith Law: Ahead of Peraza. He might be 2 after Dominguez. Deivi’s a mess. Schmidt is hurt. Who am I forgetting?

Danny: Deivi Garcia has been pretty awful in just 33+ innings in AAA as a 22 year old. Is this cause for concern? Are you less convinced he can start after the first half of this year?
Keith Law: Yeah someone fucked up his delivery. He’s a low slot slider-slinger now. Complete disaster. If I were the GM there I’d be on the warpath over this – he was one of their top 3 prospects and right now he has no value.
Keith Law: All the deception, the depth on the CB, all gone. I don’t get it.

Tom: Good to have klawchat back! Zach Thompson for the Marlins has looked great, both in the minors and in his 5 or so appearances in the bigs. Can he be a middle of the rotation guy?
Keith Law: More back of the rotation IMO.

Jason: Who do you like better long-term, Patino or Baz?
Keith Law: I really like both guys. I had Patiño higher in the offseason top 100 but that’s not a slight on Baz.

Sean S: How are you able to incorporate spin efficiency, exit velocity, and other newer tools when evaluating players in person?  Do you use 3rd party sources for this?
Keith Law: I don’t – no one does. Those are two separate evaluation processes. You can’t pretend to evaluate “spin efficiency” in person. Let the machines handle that stuff; go scout the player, not the metrics.

Ryan: the warning signs for bauer were flashing for some time. Please tell me we didn’t just look the other way because he gives a good sound bite and has a YouTube channel
Keith Law: The warning signs that Bauer wasn’t a good guy were there – he’s a bully, he didn’t play well with others, etc. I do not agree with any argument that his public behavior was some indicator of a propensity for violence against women. Saying that just gives a false sense of security that we can spot the abuser – plenty of men show a different face to the world than the one they wear at home. The BTK killer presented himself as a family man who was active in his church. It’s just not a straight-line relationship.
Keith Law: If Bauer is guilty of even a fraction of the accusations, I hope we never see or hear from him again, and all the people who enabled him are called to account for doing so – from the people in his camp to the writers who kept boosting him as ‘quirky’ or ‘eccentric.’ But I can’t take that last step to saying anyone on the outside should have known he was (allegedly) physically abusing women.

Question: Can people be racist against white males?
Keith Law: No. Saying they can is a fundamental misunderstanding of what racism is.

Hoke Moseley: Pittsburgh talk radio has seized on the “Bob Nutting is cheap” narrative to explain why they are looking to “save money” with their 1st overall selection. I’ve been banging my head against a wall trying to explain to family the rules of the MLB draft as a result. Do you think changes to the slotting/allotment system in the draft will be discussed in the upcoming CBA? It seems like another bar for casual fans to clear in order to understand the game that could be remedied in the future.
Keith Law: I think the draft will be tweaked in the next CBA because the two sides can’t help but tweak it. I’m not sure that’ll make it any better, though. They really should just allow teams to trade draft picks already.

Tom: Casey Mize pitching to the tune of a 4.74 FIP per Bref..he’s not there as a top of the rotation guy. What’s he need to do to get there?
Keith Law: It’s all in the home runs. And that’s mostly his four-seamer. I do wonder if the changes to the baseball are hurting him, but I’m also surprised he’s not throwing more splitters and fewer four-seamers.

Jordan: How cool is it that Jake Burger is doing what he’s doing after missing the past three years of professional baseball?
Keith Law: It’s great. One to root for.

Tom: Joe Ryan of the rays. Great bb:k numbers in AAA. Think he gets the call post allstar break and what is his most likely outcome as a big leaguer?
Keith Law: I worry he’ll be homer-prone, but yes, he should be in line for a callup some time in the next month. For his most likely outcome etc. I’ll refer you back to my Rays prospect rankings: https://klaw.me/3d0vAe3

Peter: Recently saw that Jered Eickoff and Mason Williams opted for free agency rather than accept a minor league assignment from the Mets – then resigned a minor league deal with them like the next day and are back in the minors. What are the machinations going on there. Obviously, I’m assuming money?
Keith Law: Could also have included opt-out clauses or other language. Call me up by 8/1 or I get to be a free agent; I get to leave if another team offers me a major-league spot.

Shane: Klaw, what is your take on Jo Adell still being in Salt Lake (unintended rhyme)? On the one hand, he is still striking out at a 30% clip and only walking 7% of the time. But on the other, he has to better than any of the Angels healthy outfielders, right?
Keith Law: The first hand is a lot bigger than the second one, especially if you want to develop him.

incandenza: You’ve said the Red Sox are focused on college guys, but does that mean they’d take Leiter/Davis/Rocker over *any* of the HS shortstops (including Mayer) if the latter are available at the fourth pick? Is Jobe in the picture for them at all?
Keith Law: Yes, I think they’d take those college guys first. Jobe isn’t, and he shouldn’t be. HS pitchers in the first round are way too risky; at pick 4, the opportunity cost is through the roof.

Tim: Is there any chance Henry Davis goes lower than 4 to the Red Sox?
Keith Law: Yes. If they pass, I’m actually not sure where he goes.

addoeh: You’ve talked about on your podcast recently that your daughters played softball this year.  Was there any pressure from the league or coaches for you to help coach once they find out what you do for a living?  How was the experience overall?
Keith Law: Nobody knew of my day job and that was fine by me! I tried to stay out of the way … I think the only things I suggested were some really basic points like ensuring their hands were together on the bat. Otherwise, I’ll let the coaches do their thing for now. They’re both so young that the goal here is to have fun, not to turn either one into Jennie Finch.

Arnold: Hey Keith, has the low-power, high-average contact hitter become so undervalued that some team could Moneyball the game with a squad of such players and be successful?
Keith Law: I feel like the Pirates tried this and it didn’t work. Low power often means insufficiently hard contact. You can’t win with a team of Madrigals.

Larry: Do you have any plans to do any book signings in the Phoenix area soon?
Keith Law: I have nothing scheduled, but I’m always open to doing them if stores reach out. I really enjoy them. Speaking of which, come see me at the Tattered Cover across from the ballpark on Monday at noon MT!

Ryan: What do you make of Person’s season so far? Still young for the level, but his offense has been dreadful. Have you heard anything about how he’s looked?
Keith Law: He’s kind of generic.
Keith Law: I assume you meant Robert Puason? He’s a perfect example of a player adversely affected by the termination of short-season leagues. That’s where he belongs.

Carlos: I’ve read that AJ Vukovich has looked really good so far. Do you think he has a shot to make the top 100 next year?
Keith Law: Yes, a shot.

Akiva: Is Mark Vientos for real? His June was god-like.
Keith Law: I’ve always bought the swing. He has to do this for more than a month.

Dylan: I’ve read some glowing reports on Elijah Green. Have you ever seen him? Do you agree that he’s the top player in the 2022 draft?
Keith Law: I haven’t yet, and no, I don’t agree. Anointing someone the top player a year or more out rarely works out. Brady Singer was one. Kumar Rocker was one. Brice Turang was one. Harper & Strasburg turned out to be those guys. Rendon and Buxton were at least good enough. But often it’s just that we haven’t started to bear down on those players enough to separate them into more than rough tiers.

Moe Mentum: IIRC your favorite college course was “Comedy and the Novel.” Have you read any more recent novels in the decades (sorry) since you were a student that would have been worthy of that class?
Keith Law: Tons. Lucky Jim. A Confederacy of Dunces. The Sell-out. Maybe Money. Inherent Vice. I’m not sure if Jasper Fforde’s books are literary enough, but several of his would work for their comedy and mix of high- and lowbrow humor. I’m also a bit surprised the course included Joseph Andrews but not Tristram Shandy, the latter of which is funnier if a little harder to read.

Joe: Keith, which of Peraza or Volpe (or neither) is the Yankees shortstop of the future?
Keith Law: I’d really like to see how he’s changed, but the reports I’ve gotten on Volpe from other scouts point to him.
Keith Law: I wrote this last week, but again, I was way off on that one.

Josh: Keith, better long-term prospect, Gunnar Henderson or Anthony Volpe?  For a fantasy league that drafts minor leaguers.
Keith Law: Like ’em both but I’d take Volpe right now.

Jerry: On Sunday, when Aroldis Chapman melted down, Mets broadcaster Gary Cohen said team losses when a closer loses his stuff are demoralizing. I think that might be true. Isn’t one way to avoid that if teams to stop having just one closer and actually try “bullpen by committee”?
Keith Law: Aren’t all losses demoralizing? What about getting your clocks cleaned 12-1 and your left fielder comes in to pitch? What about losing 11 games in a row and you wonder if you’ll ever win again? I just don’t buy it. Losing sucks. But eventually every team wins one.

xxx(yyy): as a Rangers fan, which way should I hope the team goes? pitching or hitting (generally)?
Keith Law: Best Player Available. Pick 2 you go for broke.

xxx(yyy): what cookbook have you cooked the most from in 2021?
Keith Law: Been a mix of them but I’ve used Parvana quite a bit. Can’t wait to crack The Flavor Equation next.

Fitz: As a Jays fan, should I be concerned about Nate Pearson’s long-term outlook? Is there reason to believe he will magically start staying healthy?
Keith Law: I’d be worried about his health, yes.

Snowy: Ty Madden to the Giants at 14 has a lot of buzz online, are you hearing similar things?
Keith Law: I have not, actually. That’s a bad pick. I’d be disappointed if I were a Giants fan, given who they’d be passing up

Indians fan: Is Bobby Bradley the future at 1st for the Indians?  Rest of season?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. He’s been awful since those first few games.

Mike: How you feel about drafting high school players in the 1st round?  It seems to take 4-5 years to get to the majors.
Keith Law: Position players, sure. Plenty of them turn into stars and their attrition rate isn’t any worse than that of college guys. Pitchers, though, I wouldn’t ever do it in the top 15.

Guest: Looking for any Phillies draft info.  You previously mentioned Jonathan Vastine as a kid they were connected to (maybe in the second round).  Anything changed with that?  And is there any chance Tyler Black or Trey Sweeney make it to the Phillies at 2-49?
Keith Law: No chance. Both those kids go in the late first, I think. Sweeney could even go in the teens, even though he didn’t face any good pitching all year and isn’t a shortstop.

Orioles: What is your opinion on the drafting strategy of not paying top 1st round money ?  (Seems like a team would rather have Martin than Kjerstad and better 2nd round). Explain the strategy
Keith Law: The strategy makes sense on paper, but you have to get the right guys with later over-slot picks.

Mike: Keith, I know you don’t draft for need, but due to lack of arms in upper minors, don’t the Mets have to take a college arm unless Jobe or one of the shortstops fall?
Keith Law: The Mets do not have to do that, no. Also, Jobe is not the answer.
Keith Law: Jackson Jobe might be a stud. He’s also a high school pitcher who throws hard. The odds of that class of player succeeding are lower than the odds of any other class of player.

John: Is it true that most MLB teams only expect 1-2 players from the Draft  to be a consistent contributor(s) in the MLB?
Keith Law: If you get two regulars, that’s a good draft.

Hinkie: What are your thoughts on the MLB Draft League?  What player(s) helped themselves the most by playing in that league this spring/summer?
Keith Law: It didn’t work. I don’t know of anyone who really helped himself there. The big pop-up name of the summer was Rohan Handa, the Yalie (sneers) in the NECBL.

Aaron C.: Is “Stick to Baseball” and the Saturday links post a victim of your current schedule? Will they be back after the draft? I fucking loved them if you can’t tell.
Keith Law: Yes, but with the draft & some (good) personal stuff, I’ve been way too busy.

Kyle: Klaw, how low could Rocker fall in this draft? Any chance he falls to the Mets at 10?
Keith Law: Yes, there’s a chance. I think 10/11 is his absolute floor.

Ben (MN): Any non-baseball vacation spots you are looking to hit now that it is more feasible to do so?
Keith Law: We’ve been talking about going to Wales to visit my wife’s cousins there for a year, but I think that’ll have to wait until 2022. (I’m not going there in the winter unless absolutely necessary. Dw i ddim yn hoffi’r gaeaf yng nghymru. Mae’n rhy oer a rhy gymylog.) And eventually we’d like to take that honeymoon to South America …

SG in SD: Thanks for the chat Keith! When will your next mock be up?
Keith Law: Tomorrow, as it says up top.

nate: How do you think NIL would effect high school players? Do you worry that two sport guys might go to college just for football because there’s more money there?
Keith Law: Those are the guys most affected (helped) by this – the two-sport guys who could make real money off their likenesses in football or basketball. Maybe one baseball player a year is like that, but will he make enough via NIL to pass up $5MM now (compared to the NIL income plus whatever bonus he expects in 2-3 years)?

droopydave: Have you ever been hunting?  Would you consider it?
Keith Law: No. No.

Steve: Hi Keith, thanks for the chat. Do you think the NYM go top heavy again like that past few years ( Allan and Ginn ) or revert back to normal with Alderson/Scott ?
Keith Law: Same guys running the draft and you can’t argue with their results. Look at how much of the current team came through their amateur work. I bet they do the same – go big on someone in the 2nd/3rd rounds and then save money elsewhere. But at 10 the only name I’ve heard that would be a discount would be Colson Montgomery, and I think they’ll have better guys available.

Bob: After a brutal 1st month, Pedro Leon has been pretty good. Is he one of the most intriguing players at the Futures Game? Do you think he’ll hit enough to get to his tools in games?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes. Really looking forward to seeing him.

Chris: Which of the tier of 8 (rocker, leiter, jobe, house, mayer, Lawler, Watson, Davis) are most likely to slip? What’s the latest you could see one of them falling to?
Keith Law: Rocker I mentioned. Jobe could go 3, or he could slip out of the top ten.

Drew: I know he’s young and I’m not too worried, but I’m not too familiar with him so I wanted to get your opinion on the Cards’ Johan Oviedo.  Makeup seems good, and that slider could  be fun but the lack of control is tough to watch, even if it’s expected for a kid that young.
Keith Law: He’s 23 and he’s never been good anywhere. He’s just big. I’m not a big believer.

Darren: Hi Keith,
   Would be interested to hear your thoughts on children playing baseball that have some anxiety. Our son got hit a few times early this season and now is afraid of getting hit. He steps back when he swings and if he stands in there, he steps out of the box at anything close to being inside. Have you had issues with anxiety going back to full stadiums? We still have not been to a game yet. Hope all is well
Keith Law: That’s a question for a medical professional, but I’m going to guess they’ll at least argue for some exposure therapy.

Bryan: With Jarren Duran not making the Olympic roster, do you believe a call-up to Boston is imminent?
Keith Law: Yes.

mRNA BTN162b2: Have you heard/seen any more about Noelvi Marte? Worth the trip to Modesto?
Keith Law: Nothing new, just that he is what we expected so far, and I’m bummed he’s not in the Futures Game.

Joe: Keith, I am in full agreement with you about the overuse of college pitchers with major league careers ahead of them. But is there a discussion to be had about what a college coach owes the other players on his team? For some, major league baseball is not an option, and winning the College World Series may be the highlight of their sports life. What obligation does the coach have to those players to do everything he can to win those games?
Keith Law: Any such obligation should not come at the expense of one particular player.

Ben: If you were advising Mayer what number would you be looking to get from the Pirates? It doesn’t seem like it makes any sense for him to ask for less than the 2nd bonus slot, given Pittsburgh’s ownership situation and how much the Rangers and Tigers seem to like him.
Keith Law: He shouldn’t take less than slot at 3. I don’t really know how strong Texas’ interest is.

Adam: Had been a few straight down years but Jhailyn Ortiz, who you’ve ranked well previously, seems to be coming into his own. Can he be a future regular still?
Keith Law: He’s repeating high A, and is 22, so I don’t want to get too excited yet, but it’s nice to see a stat line more in line with what I expected. I hope he gets a month in Reading to finish the year.

Justin: Obviously “taking a slightly less talented player in order to spend more on picks later” is an accepted strategy.   At what point do you think it doesn’t make sense anymore?  Like, if the Pirates took, I dunno, Frelick #1 for $4 million to be able to spend an extra $4 mil later as opposed to taking Mayer for $7 mil and being able to spend $1 mil later, should Pirates fans be annoyed/upset?
Keith Law: Yes, there’s no way they’re getting enough talent to justify the opportunity cost of taking Frelick at 1 over anyone else.

TDC: Why do the Nationals only ever seem to target pitchers with their early round picks? This trend has left Mike Rizzo with possibly the weakest position player group of any farm system.
Keith Law: They have some arms, though. Cavalli appears to be a stud.  If Rutledge is healthy, he’s a potential high-end reliever. I agree that mixing in a bat every now and then would be a good idea, but they obviously have a clear philosophy.

Sweeney: If and when the Pirates save some $ on the first overall, who would you see as a few guys they could target overslot in the second round? I’ve had my eyes set on Joe Mack assuming one of the SS goes #1, but is there any way they can push him down enough?
Keith Law: Mack’s almost certainly gone. Look more to the HS arms, the  Painter, Mozzicato, Coppola, Morales, Bruns group.

Rob: There’s no salvaging the Arenado trade but I’m curious if Eli Montero is at least salvaging some of his former promise? All I can see is the numbers but those at least appear positive.
Keith Law: I thought he was a prospect in low A, but then he hurt his hamate and jumped to AA and struggled. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him turn into a regular.

Justin: People who think that acquiring Adam Frazier should require a huge prospect package are off base, right?  Do you think they view him as anything more than just “solid .280/.350/400 type leadoff guy with decent defense”?  Obviously that’s worth *something* in a deal, but I feel like he’s become overrated by fans/media because of some babip luck.
Keith Law: Yeah, this is a fluky year, no way you give up a top prospect for him now.

Christian (Raleigh, NC): Hi Keith — Thank you for recent write-up on some of the Braves prospects you have seen (Michael Harris, Freddy Tarnok, etc.). Do you think Harris has an approach at the plate that will allow him to tighten up some of the swing-and-miss issues he has shown with non-fastballs? As a Braves fan I am hoping he can actually develop some kind of plan at the plate unlike other Braves prospects (for example – Waters) who really never have. Thanks.
Keith Law: The swing is fine, but the recognition isn’t. Saw the same problems with Jesse Franklin, but more so. I wonder if AA pitching will eat Franklin up.

Alex: I know Jobe is a HS pitcher and there is a lot of inherit risk- with taking one high first- but I have heard he has two plus pitches (plus plus?) and the makings of third.   He also does not seem to have been ridden into the ground (IIRC, he got more attention at SS) like other HS pitchers Dylan Bundy.    What am I missing?
Keith Law: He’s a HS pitcher. That is his ‘class’ and the base rate for that class is lower in odds of seeing the majors and odds of success.

Justin: Who would be your “dark horse” for the #1 overall pick?   Anyone outside of the consensus top 7ish guys?  I have a weird feeling about Frelick or Cowser.
Keith Law: Kahlil Watson.

Kip: Thanks for all the great draft coverage.  If you saw it,  what were your thoughts on the Ken Burns Hemingway doc?
Keith Law: Haven’t seen it. Never a big fan of his writing.

Darny: What kind of $ increase did Will Bednar earn himself closing out the CWS? 15-25 range now?
Keith Law: I don’t know, maybe $5000.

Mac: What is Harry Ford’s best position?
Keith Law: Batters box? He might be a right fielder.

Mac: Is Colson Montgomery the riskiest player considered to be a first round talent?
Keith Law: Him or Benny Montgomery. Benny for his swing, Colson for his age/position.

Justin: Do you think Henry Davis is a solid MLB C when it’s all said and done?
Keith Law: I do – but I know some scouts think he’s not a catcher in the long term. He’s good enough now that with professional coaching I think he’ll be an above-average defender.

Josh: For all the (valid) talk about how modern baseball strategy is making the sport less watchable, I really enjoy watching what the Giants and Gabe Kapler are doing in terms of getting most of their position players into every game (15 batters with >100 PA; very few true “full-time” players). It feels engaging as a fan to think along with the decision-making and it keeps me interested through high-stakes pinch hitting choices and “line changes” when a new opposing pitcher comes in. It’s non-traditional, but I find it compelling and sort of fresh as a viewer. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I agree. And FTR I don’t think shifting makes baseball less watchable. the damn rabbit ball does.

Dan: Has Dillon Dingler solidified himself as a top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: He might be. He’s very good, certainly.

Jesse B: Has Jordan Walker’s pitch perception been better than you anticipated, and if so are we looking a potential star down the road?
Keith Law: Yes, way better, and yes.

In A Big Country: I’m not expecting to grow flowers in the desert…damn you Keith, been stuck in my head for two days now.  By the way, ever heard the “Wonderland” EP, because it’s pretty great.
Keith Law: It’s such a quintessentially ’80s song. Adamson was brilliant. They just got pigeonholed by MTV. Wonderland is great, too.

Mac: Do you think MLB will keep a mid July draft date?
Keith Law: Yes. It’s not like Manfred ever listens to any feedback from club execs or scouts.

Jason S: Do you think Jazz always as swing and miss issues? His swing looks so quiet to me. Is it just pitch recognition?
Keith Law: Yes and maybe some inexperience. I think he’s going to end up a superstar at least in some years. He’ll be worth The Wait.

Mac: Madden or Bednar?
Keith Law: Bednar for me.

Uli Jon: Any chance the Giants go pitcher, or are they committed to position players and hoping Farhan and the ballpark can continue to weave magic with former prospects?
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re committed either way.

ChrisP: Do you think Adrian Del Castillo can stay behind the dish, and if not, then what would his ceiling be?
Keith Law: At the end of the day (spring), no, I don’t think he will, and unless someone gets him to power, he’s a bench guy.
Keith Law: Now, there’s probably power in there, but he’s a swing overhaul guy who needs a position. I don’t take that guy in the first round.

Justin: do any of the prospects in this draft crack your overall top 40 or 50?
Keith Law: Yes, at least 5-6.

Pat: It’s interesting to hear you say the Red Sox are choosing out of conventional candidates after what they did last year with Yorke. No chance they just go way off script again?
Keith Law: Not at pick 4, I don’t think. They picked later last year.

James: How worrisome is Matt Manning right now? He can’t get anyone to swing and miss, has no secondary stuff, and no spin on his fastball.
Keith Law: He was hurt last year in August and hasn’t looked right at all this year. Something’s up.

Kevin: Do you think it is better for Triston Casas’ development to go with team USA to Tokyo, or to stay in AA for the next month+?
Keith Law: Staying in AA.

ChrisP: What’s happened to Gore this year? Is he hurt or tinkering with his mechanics?
Keith Law: Blister. The Padres are also working on his mechanics but every time his blisters return this happens.

Brian: I have a hard time believing Detroit would take Jobe at 3 if Leiter and Mayer are gone. Who should they take in that situation? One of the shortstops or Davis?
Keith Law: Jobe or House. Not Davis.

Danny: Any idea what’s up with Alexander Vizciano and TJ Sikkema for the Yankees? Haven’t pitched at all this season. Are they expected to come back this season?
Keith Law: Sikkema has had a “lat” injury for like three months.

Rick Sanchez: Baz, Cavalli, and Detmers have all seen their prospect status soar this year. Is it too aggressive to say these guys have ace upside?
Keith Law: Detmers is hitting 97 now. He’s way better than we thought.

Appa Yip Yip: I read that draft pick trading was nixed in the 80s because the commissioner was worried cheap teams would trade all their picks so they never had to pay draft bonuses, which is hilariously on brand for baseball, but do you know if it’s actually true?
Keith Law: That was the rationale, but it turned out to be totally wrong. Cheap teams want more picks. The draft remains the best value in baseball.

xxx(yyy): Wife and I are taking a trip (long weekend) to one of the following cities late this year, which of these do you (most) recommend? Charleston, Denver, New Orleans, Portland or somewhere else? Mainly a food/exploring trip so open to other places!
Keith Law: Charleston is amazing. Portland might be the best combo of food + stuff to do, though.

Drew: Have you followed any of the Bret Weinstein / anti-vax / Ivermectin saga? It’s kind of sad to see a scientist use his credentials to spread such paranoid tripe.
Keith Law: Yes. Not sure if he’s really lost his mind, or if this is just a grift. He’s a good example of someone on the political left who has delved into pseudoscience and anti-vaxxerism, though. It’s not solely the province of the right.

Brad: On the podcast, you mentioned Benny Montgomery as possibly a Rockies pick. Would he be a reach there? BTW, I will see you Monday, and I don’t need a note from you to miss work for the event.
Keith Law: Oh cool, I assume your boss is coming too, then. It would be a reach but perhaps an under-slot pick.

Roy: Have you always felt averse to taking HS pitchers early? I thought you were on board with Hunter Greene going top 2 a few years back–this is not an argument, by the way, but a genuine question. I wasn’t sure if there are exceptional talents, or if I was wrong about that, or if this is a more recent development in drafting strategy. Thanks!
Keith Law: No, this is somewhat new for me, after I looked at the data while writing The Inside Game and realized just how significant the differences between classes of players were. It’s not just a scouting axiom; high school pitchers really are way riskier.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I’m still not 100% sure what I’ll be doing during the draft itself, but I’ll be at the Futures Game on Sunday and will make myself available on the concourse some time between the end of BP and the first pitch, plus I’ll be at the Tattered Cover on Monday at noon MT for a talk and book signing. I hope to see many of you there!

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Music update, June 2021.

Life is busy here, in good ways, and with the draft now just a week away I’ve been extremely preoccupied … but the good new music keeps coming, so here’s a new playlist for you.

CHVRCHES featuring Robert Smith – How Not to Drown. I did not see this collaboration coming. So many pairings of current artists with some of their heroes from prior generations only serve to highlight how the older artists have lost their fastballs – especially singers whose voices have started to go. Smith sounds the same as ever, and this is the second great CHVRCHES single ahead of their upcoming fourth album.

Gang of Youths – the angel of 8th ave.GOY are stars in their native Australia, but they might be a little too indie to see that kind of success here. There’s some Echo & the Bunnymen, The Church, and even early U2 in here.

Wolf Alice – How Can I Make It OK? Blue Weekend is one of the best-reviewed albums of the year … and I think it’s good, but it has some of the same issues I had with Visions of a Life. When Wolf Alice rocks, they rock. When they slow things down, the formula doesn’t work as well. That’s not a universal truth – “Safe from Heartbreak” is a 150-second acoustic track that has a strong hook in the chorus, and “How Can I Make It OK” has a slower tempo but is boosted by a big guitar riff. I just like their music best when they let it rip.

Little Simz – Rollin Stone. I’m all in. Little Simz’ new album, Sometimes I Might Be Introvert, comes out on September 3rd, and the songs she’s released so far make me think it’s going to be her best yet.

Tom Morello, The Bloody Beetroots, Pussy Riot – Radium Girls. Morello and the Italian electronic duo The Bloody Beetroots have an EP coming out in the fall called The Catastrophists, featuring this track co-written by Pussy Riot’s Nadya Tolokonnikova, Savages’ Jehnny Beth, and frequent Morello collaborator Carl Restivo.

YONAKA – Raise Your Glass. YONAKA’s new stuff is veering towards the anthemic, which is fine in and of itself as long as the hooks are good (this one is), although I hear this song and worry it’s going to show up in a Heineken commercial in two years.

James BKS – Kusema. James BKS’s debut album Wolves of Africa is due out in the fall, and the son of the late Cameroonian musician Manu Dibango (who died last year of COVID-19) has released at least three tracks from the album so far, including this one, with a Swahili title that means “to express” and that features BKS rapping for the first time.

Jungle – Talk About It. Jungle’s third album Loving in Stereo comes out on August 13th, and this second track from the record is among the most straight-up dance tracks they’ve done (lighter on the ’70s soul and funk elements) to date.

SAULT – London Gangs. SAULT just released Nine, their fifth album in the last 25 months, although this is the shortest one to date, clocking in at just over a half an hour. The band is also saying they’re removing the album from the internet after 99 days, which means it’ll vanish from streaming sites (and from my Spotify playlist) at some point in October, which strikes me as a stunt. You can (and should) grab the album for free from their official site, although I don’t think it’s as strong as either of their 2020 releases.

Inhaler – It Won’t Always Be Like This. Solid work from this Irish band, although they can’t really get away from the U2 comparisons when the lead singer sounds so much like his father, Bono.

Everything Everything – Natural’s Not In It. The Gang of Four tribute album The Problem of Leisure was delayed five months but came out on June 4th, featuring two covers of this track, which gives the album its title, two of “Damaged Goods,” and three of “Not Great Men,” but none of “At Home He’s a Tourist.” At least EE’s singer Jonathan Higgs pronounces “migraine” in the American style.

Wye Oak – Its Way With Me. That’s the second single from Wye Oak this year, along with “TNT,” to go with singer Jenn Wasner’s solo effort as Flock of Dimes.

Kiwi jr. – Cooler Returns. I wasn’t familiar with this Canadian indie band until my friend Paul Boyé named their new LP one of his favorites of 2021 so far. There’s something a little too hipstery in their lyrics and vocals for me, but this title track from the record is strong.

Floatie – Shiny. “Math rock” is kind of a meaningless term, no? This is experimental music, and I don’t mean that adjective in the way anti-vaxxers use it, although I doubt Floatie’s debut album Voyage Out is FDA approved.

The Lottery Winners – Favourite Flavour. I’m becoming a bigger fan of The Lottery Winners all the time, and I can’t get over how prolific they are, approaching King Gizzard level, but in this case churning out one catchy indie-pop single after another.

Descendents – Nightage. I mean, all good Descendents songs sound pretty much the same, but that’s what we pay for, right?

Quicksand – Missile Command. If bands still released singles with B-sides, Quicksand should have paired this with a cover of Killing Joke’s “Asteroid.”

Accept – Zombie Apocalypse. I had no idea Accept was still around and recording music, and while I suppose purists might object that it’s not Accept without Udo, but I don’t have that same history with the band that I might with other ’80s metal acts, so the new vocalist doesn’t faze me. Their newest album, Too Mean to Die, leads off with a pair of impressively heavy songs for a band that was often lumped in with hair-metal acts in their heyday, with thrash elements in both this song and the title track.

FALSET and James Labrie – Kickstart My Heart. “Kickstart My Heart” is actually my favorite Mötley Crüe song, and this track is quite faithful. FALSET’s drummer is the son of James Labrie, longtime lead singer of Dream Theater, who does a very reasonable imitation of Vince Neil here.

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→ June 17, 2021
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Spicy.

Spicy is a bluffing party game that came out in 2020, the first English-language release from Hungarian designer Gy?ri Zoltán Gábor, released last July by HeidelBÄR and probably something I would have seen at Gen Con had the normal convention season taken place.

Spicy plays 2 to 6 players, although I think it needs at least 3 to work well. The deck has 100 cards in it, ninety of which have a number from 1 to 10 and a color/spice – red (chili), green (wasabi), or blue (pepper). There are five wild cards that can be any number from 1 to 10 but have no color, and five color wilds that have no number. Each player begins the game with six cards from the shuffled deck.

The start player must begin a new pile in the center of the table by playing any card with value 1 to 3, stating the card’s value and color when they place it face-down on the table. Play goes around the table, and each player must then play a higher-valued card in the same color, until someone plays a 10 card in that color, after which the next player must play a 1, 2, or 3 card to keep the pile going. A player can pass and draw a card rather than playing.

Because all of the cards are played face-down, however, you can bluff, lying about number or color or both. If nobody challenges the play, it stands. Any other player can challenge it, though, placing a hand on the pile and saying whether they’re challenging the declared number or color. If the challenge succeeds, the challenger takes the pile and the challenge loser draws two cards and must start a new pile. If the challenge fails, the challenger draws the two cards while the player who placed the card wins the pile. Wild cards win any challenge for their shown variable and lose any challenge for the one they don’t show.

There are also three 10-point trophy cards you can win during the game. If you play the last card in your hand and it’s not challenged, or if it’s challenged and you win the challenge, you take a trophy card. If any player gets two trophy cards, they win the game immediately. Otherwise, the game continues until either all three trophies have been claimed, or until someone draws the World’s End card that’s placed about ¾ of the way down the deck when the game begins. Players then get one point for each card they’ve gained in piles from challenges won, and add 10 points for each trophy card. Whoever has the most points wins.

This is a bluffing game, and as such, it’s only fun when players lie – a lot, preferably. If everyone just tells the truth, and then draws cards when they don’t have a legal (true) play, the game is going to be boring. You have to go for it, and have a good poker face, and recognize that people probably aren’t going to challenge every single time – and the bigger the pile, the less someone will want to challenge and potentially hand an opponent a large stack of points.

There’s an advanced mode, where you randomly add one of the “Spice It Up!” cards that add or change something in the rules, such as letting you change the color of the stack to red if you play a 1, 2, or 3; or where playing a 5 lets you add two cards to the pile and draw two new cards to your hand. I don’t think these add a whole lot to the game, but your mileage may vary. This game is a ton of fun if you get into the spirit of it, so if you get the right group – and, although I haven’t tried this yet, I imagine if you get the right drinks on the table – it’s absolutely worth getting, especially at $15. I don’t think it works with 2 people, and if your group doesn’t bluff well or like games of deceit, you might not like it as I did.

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→ June 10, 2021
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How Lucky.

As a general rule, I don’t review books by people I know. For one thing, I know a lot of people who write books. I’m a writer, and I wrote some books, and either of those things would probably put me in contact with lots of people who also write books. And life beyond that has also put me in contacts with people who write books. Sometimes people I didn’t know were writing books write books. There are a lot of books in my world. It’s a good thing I like to read.

Anyway, I’m going to break my own rule for a moment – not the first time, I think, but it’s rare – to talk about Will Leitch’s novel How Lucky. Will’s a longtime friend, and someone whose work I enjoy. He’s also one of the most prolific writers around, and when I see his newsletter come in on Saturday, I just can’t get over how many words he writes each week. I would never tell you that writing is hard for me, but I feel like an absolute sluggard compared to Will.

How Lucky is fabulous. It’s not what it seems to be, at first, and I wonder how well the book world will appreciate it for what it truly is – a character study of the highest order, full of empathy, insight, and humor. There’s a Rear Window-ish mystery here, and Will does a fine job executing that plot without resorting to too many clichés, and when the main character is in danger (as he must be, at some point, because the conventions of the genre say so), it doesn’t last too long. There are also some fun side characters who add a lot of humor in addition to giving the protagonist some sort of foils against whom he can work. But this is about Daniel, the narrator, the star, and eventually, the hero.

Daniel works from home, handling some social media work for a fictional, regional airline in the southeast, which means he’s extra busy on college football game days. He also has spinal muscular atrophy, a genetic, progressive disease that has him using a wheelchair and unable to speak without the aid of a speech-generating device. He lives in Athens, Georgia, and gets help a few times a day from a home health worker named Marjani, as well as frequent visits from Travis, Daniel’s best friend since childhood, a sort of lovable stoner right out of Inherent Vice.

Daniel’s days have a predictable routine, and over the few weeks right before the novel starts, he sees a University of Georgia student, whom we later learn is a recent arrival from China named Ai Chin, several mornings at the same time as she’s walking and he’s on his front porch. One morning, however, she gets into a tan Camaro Daniel hasn’t seen before, and within a day, there are reports that she’s gone missing, and Daniel suspects that he saw her abductor. The story becomes a little less straightforward than that as it moves along, but that is all secondary to what we get from Daniel. The mystery exists in service to the main character, to give Leitch more room to expand on Daniel’s personality and thoughts on his life in a body that is betraying him a hell of a lot faster than the rest of our bodies are betraying us.

The conceit that Daniel, despite being what most people would probably consider unlucky to an extreme degree, doesn’t see himself that way is central to the book. Will mentions in the acknowledgements (where, full disclosure, I am also mentioned) that he and his family are close with a family in Athens whose son was born with SMA as well, which introduced him to the community of families dealing with this disease. SMA is progressive, and degenerative, so while the life expectancy of children born with it has increased substantially over the last few decades, notably since the approval of a drug called Spinraza in December of 2016, it is ultimately terminal, and people with SMA see a faster decline in their quality of life as the motor neurons in the spinal cord shrink and lose function. I can’t speak for anyone with SMA, or even as a family member of someone with it or a similar disease (like ALS), but I didn’t find Will’s portrayal of Daniel here to be facile, or overly optimistic. Daniel strikes me as a realist, just a life-positive one. He’s not denying what’s happening, or what’s in front of him. He’s just determined to make the best of it, and appreciative of what the world – especially his mom, Travis, and Marjani – has given him. He combines that with some dry wit that, because I know the author and have listened to lots of his podcasts as well as read quite a lot of his work, is very much Will’s, and I heard much of Daniel’s inner monologue in Will’s voice.

I tore through How Lucky in just three days, even though I was pretty sure how the plot itself was going to conclude – not down to the details, of course, but in general, there are a limited number of ways Leitch could end this book, and one in particular that made the most sense given the rest of the novel. I just couldn’t get enough of Daniel’s character. Will has created a memorable, likeable protagonist whose voice is unique and who stands out especially today in the era of the antihero. I’ve seen comparisons of Daniel to all sorts of main characters from literary history, but he reminded me quite a bit of one of my own favorites, Miles Vorkosigan, the hero of Lois McMaster Bujold’s series of sci-fi adventure novels, himself born with a genetic disease that limited his growth and left him with brittle bones. Miles’ novels all work pretty much the same way: He throws himself into ridiculous situations, often with insufficient regard for his own well-being, and uses his brains to work his way out of trouble. It’s formulaic, but a formula I can’t help enjoying. Daniel is more well-rounded, and as the narrator, he gives us far more insight into his personality than Bujold gives us into Miles over multiple novels, but they share the same general outlook on life, and while Miles never says it explicitly, I think he’d echo Daniel’s view. We are all just lucky to be alive, and to experience the world with each other is one of life’s greatest gifts.

Next up: I’ve just finished Nella Larsen’s Passing, a film adaptation of which will appear on Netflix later this year.

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→ June 5, 2021
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Stick to baseball, 6/5/21.

For subscribers to the Athletic this week, I did my annual redraft column, looking back at the best players from the 2011 draft class, as well as the first-rounders who didn’t work out.

Over at Paste, I reviewed Umbra Via, an afterlife-themed game with route-building elements that just did not click for us at all.

My free email newsletter has returned, with my first edition in over a month, where I explain why I just haven’t felt much like writing lately – an unusual feeling for me.

My second book, The Inside Game, is now out in paperback, and I don’t think I’m just being a buy-my-book marketing guy when I suggest that it would make a great Father’s Day gift. Midtown Scholar still has a few signed copies of the paperback available, and you can buy the book via bookshop or amazon or anywhere else you buy books.

And now, the links…

  • There’s growing evidence that UNC’s decision not to grant tenure to Nikole Hannah Jones was driven by the interference and objections of mega-donor Walter Hussman, Jr, for whom their journalism school is named. In one email to a board member, he wrote that “he was concerned about how Hannah-Jones’s work could clash with his vision for the school and what it teaches.”
  • A group of unvaccinated staffers at a Houston hospital have filed a lawsuit against the hospital’s vaccine mandate, aided by a Houston lawyer with a long history of deranged legal actions including homophobic and anti-trans moves. I can’t speak to the legal issues here, but the plaintiff’s claims (e.g., that the vaccine can alter your DNA, which, come the fuck on already) are crazy, and if a hospital can’t mandate vaccinations, we are going to have to live with the pandemic forever.
  • Sharyl Attkisson, a faux-journalist who has spread anti-vaccine disinformation for years and made the news in 2020 when she tried to air an interview with a conspiracy theorist who claimed COVID-19 was the product of a secret a government plan, is threatening to sue Dr. Peter Hotez, author of Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel’s Autism, for defamation, a baseless threat aimed at silencing one of the most vocal and erudite advocates of vaccination.
  • A new editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine explores incentives for increasing COVID-19 vaccine uptake, including mandating it in health care settings, requiring it for access to events that “involve close person-to-person contact,” and raising life and health insurance premiums for people who refuse to get the shot. I’m a big fan of the last approach: people respond strongly to financial incentives, and those of us who have gotten vaccinated shouldn’t be subsidizing those who won’t.
  • We loved Mare of Easttown, especially since we caught many of the local references, living just a mile or two away from the border between Delaware (state) and Delaware County. The show’s depictions of the residents of DelCo, however, isn’t very accurate. That county has historically been quite red, with deep racial tensions going back to the Civil War.
  • The best reaction I saw this week to the French Open telling Naomi Osaka that she can go fuck herself was from the Guardian‘s Jonathan Liew, arguing that we in sports media are not the good guys here, and that press conferences are problematic. Indeed, the day after Osaka withdrew, some asshole reporter asked 17-year-old Coco Gauff an insulting, racist question that should have gotten his credentials yanked. (Apparently that only happens if you dial into a press conference from a supermarket.) Scottish tennis coach Judy Murray, mother of two tennis champions in Andy and Jamie Murray, supported Osaka and talked about the absurd demands of the press on players.
  • New York Times health writer Tara Parker-Pope writes about four lessons we’ve learned in the last year for your anxious brain. Strengthening your connections seems like an especially valuable one in a year when most connections have become slack (pun intended).
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→ June 4, 2021
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Music update, May 2021.

I’m not sure if this was a weak month for new tracks or if I just missed a lot as I spent more time seeing games and working on some stuff around the house. It ended strongly, however, with a slew of important album releases on the last Friday in May and the first one in June. As always, if you can’t see the widget below you can access the playlist here.

black midi – Chondromalacia Patella. black midi are back, with their second album, Cavalcade, dropping on the last Friday in May. It’s frenetic, cacophonic, and deeply unsettling music, similar in attitude to their debut record, Schlagenheim, but differing enough in tone and style to mark a real progression in their sound. This was one of the lead singles and remains one of the better tracks on the record, which in some ways is more accessible than the first LP but which, on first listen, doesn’t have enough great hooks in the longer tracks like “Ascending Forth” or “Diamond Stuff.”

Pond – America’s Cup. Pond have always been weird, sometimes to good effect but sometimes to the point where it was easy to dismiss some of their experiments. Whatever the hell this is, though, I want more of it. This is early ’80s funk, still bearing the influence of peak disco, around lyrics about the rapid gentrification of Fremantle in Western Australia after that country’s entry won the America’s Cup sailing race in 1983 and the city hosted the Cup in 1987. This is the good shit.

YONAKA – Call Me a Saint. That’s three new singles this year from this Brighton quartet, whose feminist alt-rock made Don’t Wait ‘Til Tomorrrow one of my favorite albums of 2019. Still no word on a release date for a second LP.

Little Simz feat. Cleo Sol – Woman. The second single ahead of Little Simz’s sophomore album, Sometimes I Might Be Introvert, due out in September, “Woman” is also her second collaboration with singer Cleo Sol. Little Simz is easily one of my favorite rappers working today, both for her own vocal style and her choices of backing music.

Bobby Gillespie & Jehnny Beth – Chase It Down. That’s the lead singer of Primal Scream and the lead singer of Savages, respectively, and their album, Utopian Ashes, will be out on July 2nd. There are hints of Primal Scream’s more psychedelic leanings in here – rather than the straight-up Rolling Stones homage they did on “Rocks” – along with a fantastic guitar solo at the end.

Emma-Jean Thackray – Say Something. I’ve seen Thackray called a jazz musician, but this isn’t jazz – this is smart, textured dance music, with elements of jazz, and R&B, and house, and more. She has her own record label, Movementt, and appears to be building up towards a debut album after releasing two singles in the last two months.

Jorja Smith feat. Shaybo – Bussdown. Smith’s EP Be Right Back feels like a tease, as the nine-song, 25-minute release just isn’t enough from the talented R&B singer/songwriter, whose debut album Lost & Found came out three years ago this week. I’ll take any Jorja Smith I can get, though.

Freddie Gibbs, Swizz Beats, and Shoota93 – We Want Justice Dammit! This track comes from season 2 of the series Godfather of Harlem, and both Gibbs and Swizz Beats deliver strong verses despite the near lack of a beat beneath them.

Atlas Genius – Elegant Strangers. I was seriously concerned these guys had hung it up for good, with only one new track in the last four years, but it appears we will get a third album from the guys behind “Trojans,” “If So,” and “Molecules.”

Renée Reed – Neboj. Reed is from Louisiana and sings in both English and French, but it’s the intricate finger-picked guitarwork that drew me to this song, from her self-titled debut album.

The Lottery Winners – Times Are Changing. I was very late to this parade, but damn can the Lottery Winners churn out pop bangers as fast as anyone. Their next album, which will be their second in 18 months (third if you count their lockdown covers record), is due out on September 24th.

The Wombats – Method to the Madness. There’s a distressingly slow start to this new track from Matthew Murphy and the lads, but it picks up in the second half and sounds far more like a Wombats song. They haven’t announced when their next album, which will be their fifth, will appear, but are planning their biggest concert ever at London’s O2 Arena next April.

Cœur de Pirate – Plan à Trois. Béatrice Martin released a surprise EP of instrumental piano tracks last month, and now she’s back with the kind of synth-heavy alternative pop for which she’s known. This isn’t quite up there with “Prémonition,” still my favorite song of hers, but it’s promising.

Greentea Peng – Dingaling. Peng’s debut album MAN MADE came out on Friday, June 4th, so it’s still in my queue, but her lead-up singles have all shown off her incredible ability to combine widely divergent genres. I feel like fans of the short-lived jazz-rap movement that started with Native Tongues and peaked briefly with Digable Planets will especially appreciate this track (and, I assume, the album).

Superbloom – Pollen. The title track from this group’s debut album couldn’t sound any more ’90s – I hear Hum more than anything else – if they tried, but as someone who wanted the music of that decade to last forever, I’m here for it.

Squid – Pamphlets. The British music press loves Squid’s debut album Bright Green Field, but it’s just too much of itself for me. I can do modern punk, I don’t mind music with a sneer, and I certainly like the art-rock stylings of Squid’s guitar work, but the lyrics combined with the deliberately obnoxious delivery just leave me feeling a bit too “oh shut up already” before the record is half done. I thought this was the best song on the record, but it’s nearly eight minutes long, and that is absolutely enough of Squid for me.

Mastodon – Forged by Neron. Mastodon has so many sides to its music that saying this is my favorite style of Mastodon track does something of a disservice to their ingenuity and breadth. But I do like when they pick up the pace a little and ensure their tracks have stronger melodies.

Sabaton – Defence of Moscow. These guys are ridiculous but I love it – it’s right out of a 1989 episode of Headbanger’s Ball. Savatage would be proud.

Gojira – Into the Storm. The French avant-garde metallists returned with the long-awaited follow-up to 2016’s Magma, which Decibel named the best metal album of the decade and which earned the band a Grammy nomination for Best Rock Album, a rarity for any extreme metal band. Highlights from the new record, called Fortitude, include this track, “Sphinx,” “Amazonia,” “Born for One Thing,” and “Another World.”

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→ June 4, 2021
→ By

The Vanishing Half.

Brit Bennett has popped up as a favorite to win the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, to be announced next Friday, June 11th, for her second novel, The Vanishing Half, which HBO is already planning to adapt into a limited series. It is a fascinating work about “passing,” where lighter-skinned Black people pass as white (itself the subject of a novel, Nella Larsen’s Passing, that will appear on the big screen later this year), but with multiple dimensions of intersectionality as well, exploring what happens when two twins take divergent paths because one passes and the other does not.

Desiree and Stella Vignes are identical twins who live in a peculiar town outside of New Orleans called Mallard, a Black enclave where all the residents have relatively light skin – to the point that Mallard looks down on Black people with darker skin tones in many of the ways that you might associate with subtle white racism, even though Mallard residents themselves face racism subtle and unsubtle from white people from surrounding towns. That touches the girls’ lives when they’re seven years old and white men lynch their father as they watch, hiding with their mother, the devastation of which leads indirectly to their decision to run away from home as teenagers. They move to New Orleans, barely able to take care of themselves at first, but eventually settle into menial jobs, one of which comes to Stella because she can pass as a white woman, and the hiring person doesn’t even consider that she might be Black. Stella becomes the vanishing twin of the book’s title, leaving New Orleans without giving her sister any warning, leaving no trace of herself and cutting off any contact with her remaining family. The novel traces their two paths, and how each has one child, a daughter, the two of whom will eventually come into coincidental contact in California, forcing both Vignes sisters to confront their pasts, both shared and separate.

For a novel that isn’t very long – 343 pages, and a brief read for that length – The Vanishing Half has a lot to unpack, starting, of course, with its core examination of race and identity. Race is a social construct, and Bennett uses that as a launching point for the very unparallel lives first of the Vignes sisters, who find themselves in very different circumstances as they move into adulthood, and then their daughters, two cousins who come back together as if driven there by fate. (How Desiree’s daughter, Jude, first encounters and recognizes the aunt she’d never met requires some suspension of disbelief.) The interplay between race, identity – can you be who you are if you shed the race society first thrust upon you? – and later social status is the clear strength of the book, but it becomes muddled in places as Bennett’s approach becomes more intersectional, bringing in additional characters who are well-developed for secondary players but who aren’t additive to the main story. The narrative is more potent when she’s using the two sisters’ stories to explore different aspects of race and racism in the United States in the 1970s and 1980s, which seems like the most likely argument for this book to win the Pulitzer.

Of the two main characters, Desiree seems the more developed, although there might be some primacy bias at work there – we get a few chapters of her story before we meet Stella at all. It’s also likely that Bennett left Stella more inscrutable by design, the “star” who is always just far enough away to remain somewhat impossible to truly know. Desiree’s daughter, Jude, shares a name with the Biblical figure who wrote about how God would punish false prophets, those who preached in his name without his truth, imploring the faithful to stand up for their beliefs – which she does, pursuing Stella and Stella’s daughter Kennedy with the tenacity of a true believer. As the twins fade into the background, it’s Jude who emerges as the novel’s most complete and compelling character, dealing with the consequences of both sisters’ choices in life, and a society that imposes such a cost on Blackness that her aunt chose passing – and giving up her sister, her mother, and her own identity – rather than continue to pay.

Next up: My friend Will Leitch’s first novel, How Lucky.

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→ June 1, 2021
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The Ardent Swarm.

Tunisian author Yamen Manai’s slim fable The Ardent Swarm first appeared in the U.S. this February to wide acclaim, as the longtime novelist’s work hadn’t appeared in English before. Set in an unnamed country that bears a strong resemblance to Tunisia in the wake of the overthrow of the dictator Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, the story follows the humble beekeeper Sidi, who sees one of his colonies of bees (whom he calls his “girls”) ravaged by what we all now know as murder hornets – Vespa mandarinia, the Asian giant hornet, which preys on honeybees. When he discovers the cause of the collapse of his colonies, two of his friends offer to fly to Japan to gather queen bees of the Apis cerana japonica subspecies, the only honeybee with a known defense mechanism against the murder hornets: the “ardent swarm,” where the honeybee workers surround the invader, exhale more carbon dioxide, and beat their wings furiously to raise the temperature up near 50 Celsius, cooking the hornet to death.

In Manai’s novel, the dictator, just referred to as Handsome One, has been deposed just as Ben-Ali was.  In the wake of his overthrow, various factions are competing for power, including the military and a radical Islamist group called The Party of God that tries to buy votes by distributing free food to rural villagers – a more extreme depiction of the Islamist party Ennahda, which won the most seats in the first parliamentary elections after Ben-Ali’s ouster, although secularist parties took power in subsequent elections. Sidi resists the The Party of God’s inducements, only to discover that they bear responsibility for the deaths of his “girls,” forcing him to make a choice that stands as a metaphor for the choice that faced Tunisia – and that other countries faced in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, often choosing less wisely than the Tunisians did.

The Ardent Swarm is an obvious parable, with obvious parallels to the Arab Spring while also serving as a lament and a warning over our cavalier relationship to our environment, and how fragile the ecosystem on which our species depends can be. We depend on these pollinators, including domesticated honeybees and wild bumblebees, to maintain our food supply, but a combination of stressors from parasites (notably the Verroa mite), habitat loss, and pesticides appears to be contributing to the decline of domestic stocks in North America and Europe. Minai ties the corruption of the Party of God to a breakdown in this historical relationship between humans and the land, short-circuiting it in a way that will leave people dependent on their government for basic needs – and thus more compliant to its demands – if they can’t, or forget how to, take care of themselves. Sidi stands nearly alone in his resistance to this pressure, and faces extremely difficult odds when trying to resurrect his colonies, an effort obstructed by further corruption by Islamist authorities in the government and in the university where one of his allies works.

A cynical take on The Ardent Swarm might compare it to the over-the-top fables of Paolo Coelho, which are well-written but simplistic. I saw this more as a modern and less oblique twist on the short novels of Italo Calvino, one of the greatest fabulists in literary history, an author very concerned with the relation between person and place. There’s wit here that reminded me more of Calvino, or even a little of Murakami, but with the seriousness of the French satirists of the mid-20th century. The Ardent Swarm is a plea, for democracy, for our environment, and for a different future than the one towards which we’re heading. It deserves a wider audience.

Next up: Brit Bennett’s The Vanishing Half, one of the favorites to win the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction when that award is announced next Friday.

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