The Antidote.

We are inundated with messages and products that promise to tell us how to be happy. A quick amazon search for “how to be happy” yields books with titles like The 18 Rules of Happiness: How to Be Happy, How We Choose to Be Happy: The 9 Choices of Extremely Happy People–Their Secrets, Their Stories, and Be Happy! – How to Stop Negative Thinking, Start Focusing on the Positive, and Create Your Happiness Mindset. You can spend even more money to attend seminars like “How Positive Psychology Changes Our Lives,” “Happiness and its Causes,” and “The Happiness Habit.” All of this, as you might imagine, is just so much bullshit, and I fail to see how someone else taking my money for it is going to make me any happier.

In fact, as Oliver Burkeman argues in The Antidote: Happiness for People Who Can’t Stand Positive Thinking, much of this material is actually deleterious to our efforts to be happier. The feeling that we should be happy just makes us less so, and attempts to be happier by pushing out negative thoughts creates anxiety and, as you probably know, does nothing to keep those negative thoughts at bay. Burkeman approaches the happiness paradox – how those of us in developed countries, especially those of the west, seem to be so much less happy today even though our most basic existential needs are largely met – from a novel angle, instead looking at ways to find happiness through understanding and even embracing the things that tend to make us unhappy.

Burkeman begins the book at a rah-rah positive-thinking seminar held by Dr. Robert Schuller, at the time the leader of a megachurch in Texas, who would end up filing for bankruptcy a few months after Burkeman attended the rally. (Schuller died of cancer in 2015.) Schuller’s words – and those of President George W. Bush, who spoke briefly at the rally as well – appear to have been a lot of empty if not outright counterproductive advice, like banishing the word “impossible” from your vocabulary. Fortunately, this book isn’t just about knocking over mountebanks like Schuller; Burkeman instead explores seven avenues of finding happiness that not only seem to work (or at least to help) but also run counter to the “think positive” mentality that poisons everyone’s attempts to get happier.

Burkeman begins with the stoics, the ones from ancient Greece and the folks still practicing and teaching stoicism today, and moves along to Buddhism, to the secular aspects of Eckhart Tolle’s writings, and even to the Mexican tradition of celebrating death. He visits a museum of commercial product failures in Michigan and explains how our refusal to reconsider our failures leads us to make the same mistakes – as many businesses do, conceiving the same products repeatedly despite past evidence that they’re bad ideas.

Several of those philosophies revolve around the fact that trying to avoid negative or unwanted thoughts makes them harder to get rid of (demonstrated in the white bear experiment). Thinking about the worst-case scenario – when it’s extremely unlikely to occur, that is – can in fact reduce your anxiety about bad things that are likely to occur, because you’ll better understand that they too shall pass. If you’ve practiced mindfulness, or traditional meditation, you know that you are not supposed to suppress negative thoughts when they occur because it doesn’t work; you are supposed to observe them “without judging” and let them float on by. If you’re obsessed with things going wrong, simply saying – or having someone tell you – that they won’t go wrong isn’t helpful. You have to acknowledge those possibilities and put them in the proper context before you can get around them, and then, perhaps, you can be happier.

Along the way, Burkeman demolishes a lot of happiness and productivity myths. Setting goals does not, in fact, make you more likely to achieve them, but it does make you less happy when you fall short. The management scholar Chris Kayes coined the term “fatal magnetism” when analyzing the 1996 Mount Everest disaster, where many climbers who should have known better continued toward the summit in conditions that all but guaranteed they’d die on the way down. Kayes argues that these climbers were so hellbent on achieving their goals that they couldn’t think rationally about failing to do so, an extreme example of how goal-setting can distort our thinking. Burkeman also discusses “security theater,” Bruce Schneier’s term for how we enact visible efforts to stop terrorist attacks – think metal detectors at baseball stadiums – that don’t make us any safer but do impose significant costs on us in time and money. So while The Antidote is ostensibly about happiness, it covers a lot of other areas of life where we go wrong, including obstacles to productivity, inability to properly assess danger (of the physical or financial kinds), and our susceptibility to the placebo effect.

I learned quite a bit from Burkeman’s book, much of which will directly change how I go about my daily life and my work. I am fortunate in that, by nature, I’m a happy, optimistic person; my anxiety disorder is not about dwelling on what might go wrong, but more about reacting badly when things do go wrong, as well as the ongoing static in my brain that didn’t abate until I started a low dose of medication. But like most people, happy or not, I have sources of stress – myriad work responsibilities, like that whole writing-a-book thing right now, and the challenge of balancing work, family, personal interests, and being a homeowner, to pick a few examples – and The Antidote explains how to change your mindset around these questions. Burkeman also gets repeated counsel from the people he interviews or sources he consults about living more in the present; we worry too much about the future and we probably dwell too much on the past, which is why we don’t appreciate what we have now enough to enjoy it. There is no single key to happiness, nor are there 18 steps to take you there, but I think The Antidote can at least help you realign your thinking so you have a chance to be happier.

Next up: I’ve been reading faster than I can write reviews, but I expect to finish Connie Willis’ Hugo and Nebula Award-winning novel The Doomsday Book today.

Stick to baseball, 9/3/16.

I wrote three pieces for Insiders this week, on the death of September callups, on Yoan Moncada, and on Alec Hansen (White Sox) and Alberto Tirado (Phillies). I also held a Klawchat on Thursday afternoon.

For Paste, I’m going to be reviewing a game a week for the rest of 2016. The latest review is of Mysterium, a fun cooperative game where one player is the ghost and must deliver clues in the form of “vision” cards to the other players. The base game is $36 on amazon, and there’s a new expansion called Hidden Signs that adds more cards.

And now, the links…

Music update, August 2016.

First, some non-music links – my thoughts on the Yoan Moncada promotion for Insiders, and my review of the coop murder-mystery boardgame Mysterium for Paste.

August was pretty fertile for new releases – I ended up cutting a few songs from the list this time around – with a number of singles out previewing albums due to drop in the next six weeks. I feel like overall this is the worst year for strong albums in a while, but it’s at least a solid-average year for great tracks. We still have time for something to grab me as the clear album of the year, though, so I’m trying to keep a positive attitude and take it one playlist at a time. Spotify users can use this direct link to the playlist if the widget doesn’t show up.

Swet Shop Boys – Tiger Hologram. If the voice with the British accent sounds familiar, that’s Riz Ahmed, the actor who played Naz on HBO’s The Night Of, paired here with Heems (ex-Das Racist) over a beat that was the best bit of new music I heard all month. The New Yorker profiled the duo ahead of the release of their debut album, Cashmere, in October.

Dinosaur Jr. – Goin Down. This is my favorite track right now from their new album, Give a Glimpse of What Yer Not, mostly because it just rocks and that’s when I’ve tended to like their music and not find myself bothered by J Mascis’s vocals.

Dawes – When The Tequila Runs Out. This song is just goofy-fun, more upbeat than stuff I’ve heard before from the brothers Goldsmith, who’ve also been working with Van Pierszalowski on his new project under the name Van William.

Atomic Tom – Someone to Love. Atomic Tom is new to me, even though they’ve been around for a decade and released albums in 2010 and 2015, with the latter, ERA, including this incredibly infectious 1980s-style pop gem.

The Naked And Famous – Laid Low. Never has this New Zealand quintet sounded more like CHVRCHES than they do here – and that’s a compliment. Now I’m going to ruin the song for you by pointing out that the two notes in the chorus where she sings “Taaaaake me” are the same two notes of “Tell me” from the chorus of “Always on My Mind.”

Christine and the Queens – Tilted (Live From Spotify London). I don’t think I’ve ever included a live track on one of these playlists, but I didn’t highlight “Tilted” when it came out last year and the song has grown on me, especially with this strong live performance. I still don’t think the French language is well-suited for rapping, though.

Kate Nash – Good Summer. I’ve got mixed feelings on this pop song from Nash, who peaked commercially and critically with her debut album and UK hit “Foundations;” I still love her voice and her ear for melody, but these lyrics are such a step down, as if she’s dumbing it down for the sake of sales.

Tall Heights – Spirit Cold. This song was first released as a single last summer, with a video out over the winter, but there’s a new push behind it with their August release of a new album, Neptune; I’ve seen them called “prog folk” but I think that’s misleading. This song is more atmospheric, driven by the two singers’ harmonies and Paul Wright’s cello, with some influence from the late ’90s quietcore movement evident as well.

Jagwar Ma – Give Me a Reason (Radio Edit). This Australian outfit, now based in the UK, go full-Madchester with this second single from their album Every Now and Then, due out October 14th. I hear Soup Dragons, Charlatans UK, even a little Happy Mondays here, so needless to say it’s my favorite song by Jagwar Ma yet.

Coast Modern – The Way It Was. I’m not a big Cage the Elephant fan, so saying this sounds just like a CtE – boy, that’s an unfortunate acronym – track doesn’t explain its inclusion, but in this case I found the chorus stuck in my head for a while after my first listen.

Midnight Faces – Heavenly Bodies. Another not-new artist I hadn’t heard before, this trio started out in Grand Rapids where one of its members was in a band (Saxon Shore) with Father John Misty. “Heavenly Bodies” is dream-pop with a better tempo and that moaning guitar riff earworm that was enough to land it on my playlist.

American Football – I’ve Been So Lost for So Long. Apparently this is a big deal; I don’t remember American Football from their late-1990s activity, after which they were on hiatus for sixteen years. Nothing says “emo” like “If you find me/Please remind me/Why I woke up today.”

Softer Still – Bliss. A quartet from Surrey whose sound reminds me a ton of Real Estate and a little bit of the Sundays (without Harriet, though, so it’s not quite the same).

The Head And The Heart – Rhythm & Blues. This Seattle folk-rock act’s third album, Signs of Light, drops next Friday. I think “Shake” is still my favorite song of theirs, but this would be a strong second; they’re better when they rock a little more like Okkervil River.

Bloods – Bring My Walls Down. Modern punk with sweet, layered female vocals. It works.

Dinosaur Pile-Up – Nothing Personal. This British rock act put out their third album, Eleven Eleven, last October outside of the U.S., but it’s just appearing here for the first time. I know they don’t call themselves a metal band, but the dropped tuning and riffing here are strongly reminiscent of classic (pre-thrash) metal.

Prophets Of Rage – The Party’s Over. As with their previous single, Prophets of Rage’s riffs are stronger than their rhymes. I get the political motivation behind the group, especially in light of the upcoming election, but I wish we were getting more vintage work from Chuck D and B Real.

Sabaton – Shiroyama. This song is such an unabashed throwback to 1980s thrash that I love it in spite of all of its anachronisms – or perhaps because of them.

Metallica – Hardwired. Obligatory. The lyrics are dumb, the drum work is amateurish, but I do like the early 1980s speed-metal riffing.

Klawchat 9/1/16.

My one Insider piece so far this week covered why September prospect callups are a thing of the past – or, why prospects who are going to be called up are probably already up.

Hey, while you’re here, pre-order my book! And sign up for my newsletter!

Klaw: What to do when suckers are preyin’ up on my well-guarded spreadsheets? Klawchat.

Kenny: Dansby has 1 UIBB in 12 games, is this what we can expect from him going forward or does he have some understanding of the strike zone? His ABs haven’t seemed to show someone completely lost.
Klaw: It’s 12 games. Remember when Alex Bregman started 0 for 15? I just found a tweet from that week where someone asked me if a demotion was coming. The big leagues are hard. Stop overreacting to minuscule samples.

Brian: Jemier Candelario having a second nice season after really struggling in 2014. Is he a potential everyday guy (maybe not with Cubs if blocked)? Will the glove play at 3b?
Klaw: He can hit, but I don’t think he can play 3b, and he’d be their … what, third best defender at the position right now?

Darnell: for my 11th grade honors American lit course I get to choose a novel from a list of about 200 for a research paper. My favorites are down to Catch 22, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, The Sun Also Rises, All The Kings Men, and A Farewell To Arms. Any thoughts on these books?
Klaw: My favorite of those is Catch-22. I wouldn’t wish Hemingway on anybody.

Dennis Swanson: Keith, so I watched Tim Tebows workout. Evaluate my scouting prediction please: weak arm (grade 40, by comparison I’m 60 and with a couple of weeks work, I would still grade at about 50). First year high school player footwork in the outfield. rarely lined up a ball to throw properly. Clunky catching the ball, glove to throw motion is on the low end of the scale. Batting practice fast ball power. Overstrides and is easily fooled by off-speed pitches. But has plus power when he does connect. In running, fast but not quick. Some team with a good AA park in the SE or S will sign him and he will attract people to the gate. Right coaching and practice could smooth out some flaws to get him to AAA, but he’ll be 30+ by then.
Klaw: A washed-up quarterback who can’t even square up 88 mph in a workout isn’t even as good as your bearish report would even imply. He’s an absolute zero, a 29-year-old with a 20 hit tool, and shame on everyone involved in this charade – including any team that might be foolish enough to sign him.

DrMike: Could Andrew Toles be an everyday player?
Klaw: I don’t think so, although he’s a different person (makeup) now than he was in the past. Always had tools, lacked real baseball skills and had little to no commitment to improvement. As an amateur and a Rays farmhand, he was a guy who could run and that’s about it.

Dave: KLAW, is there a consensus number one pick in next year’s draft?
Klaw: No, but there’s more talent up top than there was in this year’s. I’d put Vandy OF Jeren Kendall at 1 right now ahead of SoCal RHP/SS Hunter Greene.

Jim L: Why wouldn’t the Angels, who stink and their farm system stinks, try and work out a trade for Puig? The asking price can’t be too high.
Klaw: Why can’t it be too high? I think it would be.

Rich (Rochester): Inside baseball question from your time in Toronto: do minor league affiliates lobby for prospects? What do ‘minor league relations ‘ look like from an MLB FO perspective?
Klaw: They would rather win than just get highly rated prospects. Two years ago Wilmington was loaded with prospects and didn’t have a great season. Last year they had almost no prospects and made the league championship series. Any team that isn’t owned by the parent club would prefer the latter to the former.

mcgive_it_to_me: I agree with Sheehan. Every pace of play issue in baseball is directly correlated to pitcher velocity. I’m in the camp that they just need to move the mound back though not sure how far. The only downside I see to this is the unintended consequences towards soft-tossing/control pitchers. Where do you stand on this?
Klaw: Moving the mound seems like it would have a lot of unintended consequences. Also, speeding up pace of play means less rest between pitches or innings for pitchers, and less rest means more fatigue which means more injuries.

Marshall: Ronald Acuna is back from his hand injury and is already showing signs of greatness again. Will he be a fast riser on prospect lists next season?
Klaw: I’m a big fan.

Marty: Austin Riley is raking again- has 17 home runs the second half. What are your thoughts on him
Klaw: I’m not a big fan.

Tim: Hey Keith, thanks for the chat! Seems like Christian Pache is handling Danville pretty well. Thoughts on his future ceiling?
Klaw: I think he’s a potential star, but beware of these tiny samples – he’s hitting far better in Danville than he did in the GCL and that should make you at least question how indicative either stat line is of his true talent.

Disgruntled: Watching the Diamondback dumpster fire has passed the point of humor, is it safe to assume that LaRussa and Stewart will be jettisoned before next season?
Klaw: I don’t think that’s safe to assume at all; you saw how they circled the wagons when my article was posted, slandering me rather than addressing the very real mistakes they’ve made as a front office.

Disgruntled: Moncada up on Friday, odd’s he get’s full-time ab’s going forward at 3B?
Klaw: I don’t think he will, or should.

Amos: Desmond Lindsay’s numbers look great, albeit in Brooklyn. Any word from people scouting the player and not the stat line?
Klaw: That he looks great. He’s not old for Brooklyn. Hell, usually the Cyclones’ average age is closer to 30 than 20.

Carl Youstremsky: Yankees have been extremely active for once. What do you think of the Gamel for Orozco and De Paula deal? Also, out of those two and the couple PTBNL they received from PIT (Tarpley and Polo), can any of the four become solid ML regulars? Thank you
Klaw: I like Gamel for what he is but he’s been crowded out by better OF prospects in their system, so they flipped him for two high-upside teenage arms they can wait on. Polo looks like a good fourth OF, definite big leaguer. Tarpley has a million dollar arm and the proverbial ten-cent head, probably a LH reliever in the end but athletic enough that if he gets his act together at some point and turns into a quality starter I won’t be totally shocked.

Ryan: Trevor Clifton was recently named the Carolina League Pitcher of the Year, how do you project him as a MLB pitcher
Klaw: Mid-rotation starter.

Taco Timmy: Isan Diaz is nearing the obsession that Victor Robles once had… How bullish are you on this guy?
Klaw: Very bullish. Great feel to hit. Sneaky pop, don’t think he’s a huge power guy, but lot of hard contact. Could play 2b or 3b. Segura’s had a big BABIP year for AZ but I think losing Diaz is going to hurt them in the long run.

Gary: Jed Bradley called up to Atlanta after they got him for basically nothing from Milwaukee earlier this year. I know he’s a former first rounder, and his numbers in the Atlanta system have actually been good so far. Any optimism here long term?
Klaw: He’s regained his college velocity again and I think could be a swingman for Atlanta, maybe a 5th starter, more likely a little less. Not bad for, as you said, a guy acquired for nothing.

Steve: Higher ceiling, Soroka or Allard? Soroka has been absolutely dealing.
Klaw: Allard. Good results, especially for pitchers in the low minors, are nice but not as strongly predictive as you might believe (or as they are for bats).

Ryan: It’s amazing how people talk about the 1st amendment and how they value it, until someone actually exercises it. This divide astonishes me a little, yes other people have a right to disagree but you can’t say don’t protest. I’m not sure how people are wired to think that is a coherent thought. Also, so many terrible ‘hot takes’ on this came out this week, thank you for being a voice of sanity.
Klaw: Did you ever really learn about First Amendment rights at any point in school? I don’t recall any of that, even in American History in HS. I vaguely remember having to learn the five main freedoms of 1A but nothing further. So it’s hardly surprising that we have a nation of people who don’t understand what freedom of speech or censorhip of it mean in practice. Also, I have no idea why we need to turn sporting events into patriotic pep rallies. I’m here for the baseball, not for public displays of jingoism.

Frank: How do you factor in hitter tendencies in BP vs a game? If a batter pulls everything in BP, but sprays to all fields in a game, how would you describe him?
Klaw: What he does in the game is more important. The BP might show you what his raw pull power, but that’s subordinate to how he hits live pitching.

Nick: What have you heard about Yusniel Diaz’s season? The numbers are pretty so-so, but he’s very young for his league and seems to have at least shown some solid tools.
Klaw: Yep, good tools, good swing, decent approach, missed too much time with injury. He finished well after the lost five weeks and his overall line is solid for a 19-year-old in a decent hitters’ park in high-A, so I remain very bullish on his future. I was hoping he’d get an AFL spot to make up for the lost ABs.

DPF: Is there a level of performance that Jameson Taillon could achieve that would make passing on Machado the right choice?
Klaw: No, but Taillon’s clearly going to be good enough that this won’t be a “how the hell did you pass on Machado” conversation for the next decade.

Anonymous: According to Fangraphs, Kris Bryant currently gas the most WAR in baseball. We all know he is the front-runner for MVP in the NL, but is he the best player in baseball?
Klaw: The best player in baseball is Mike Trout. I don’t think there’s even a real debate at this point.

Zach: So far, I love what I see out of Josh Bell. He’s got a matured approach at the plate, can drive the ball opposite field, and is way more athletic than anyone with his build should be. That said, does his swing concern you at all? I’m not an expert, but at times it feels like its very long/slow to develop and very upper cut.
Klaw: I don’t think it’s “upper cut” in the least; if anything the criticism of him in the minors was that he wasn’t lifting the ball as much as a big man should. I saw enough hard contact from him that I was fine with his swing as is – he has a great approach, likes to go the other way, and isn’t afraid to drop the bat head and murder something middle-in.

Chris: The Mets ignoring Matz’ various arm issues and relying on specious evidence that the bone spur isnt affecting his shoulder is truly bizarre. Just sit him the rest of the year.
Klaw: And he’s *always* been hurt. He’s never reached 150 innings in a regular season in seven innings (including 2016) in pro ball. He’s hurt everything but his spleen. How do you not treat him with extreme caution given his history of DL stints?

Drew: Do you follow players on twitter? I recently followed Amed Rosario on twitter and found another reason why i hope he is in NY soon.
Klaw: Some, mostly players I know or who follow me.

John: Why are you rarely included when ESPN does large panels like the post season awards article up today?
Klaw: I decline to participate. I have too much else to do, including writing things that appear under my name.

Troubled (Cincy): It seems like Bryan Price has adopted a strategy you’ve recommended: multiple inning relievers separated by at least 1-2 days off. He’s been doing this with Lorenzen and Iglesias to most importantly keep them healthy and also to bolster the horrific bullpen. Long term, I believe Lorenzen is a reliever due to his lack of secondary pitches. But Iglesias looks like he has the arsenal to start, he reminds me of El Duque throwing pitches from multiple angles with movement. Do you think Iglesias can start, or is the better long term strategy to keep him healthy in the bullpen?
Klaw: Lorenzen’s been mostly one inning per outing, occasionally two; I’d be happy to see him go 2-3 and then get more time off. He’s a reliever for me all the way. Iglesias has the stuff to start but may not be able to hold up in that role … but that says to me that pitching him back to back (to back?) days in the bullpen isn’t going to be any better.

Mark: Pro: Hunter Renfroe has put up good all-around numbers this year at El Paso (top three in the league in total bases, homers, RBIs, hits, slugging and runs). Con: It’s the PCL. How much should I temper my excitement due to the league he plays in? Do you use sort of baseline to evaluate guys who play in hitter friendly environments (like factoring in that stats are artificially inflated by a certain percentage, etc.)?
Klaw: Not just the PCL, but El Paso, which appears to be a great place to hit – and he had terrible BB/K numbers and a big home/road split (.247/.276/.461 on the road). Since we already knew he had issues with contact and breaking ball recognition, the cons here ‘convince’ me more than the pros.

Sitting 95: What wizard did Warthen submit to? Because the Mets ability to crank out interesting pitchers is frankly obscene at this point in time. Gsellman and Lugo both looked good.
Klaw: Yes they did. Gsellman is suddenly bumping 95 with some regularity and that makes him more than just a 5th starter.

Jack: Will you be at Alec Hansen’s start tonight? Just curious if you will do a write up.
Klaw: Weather permitting, that is my plan, but it’s supposed to rain again.

JJ: Is Moancada ready to help the Red Sox? His lefty/righty splits seem a bit extreme, and I’m worried about this “drop him at third base” noise after he spent so little time there in the minors.
Klaw: Is Moancada a Freudian slip? I don’t like that idea either – he wasn’t that good at second base, third base isn’t an easier position, and if you don’t make enough contact in AA you’re not going to suddenly make more in the majors.

Paul Furlong: What the hell is going on with Kyle Hendricks? Is this a case of SSS or has he done something to make this a more long lasting improvement?
Klaw: It’s both. That .244 BABIP says a lot about how good the Cubs’ defense (their fielders and the team’s positioning) is. But he’s also got a plus changeup that allows his fringe-average fastball to play. So some of both. You just can’t separate him from the value he gets from the fielders around him.

sam: when your daughter’s a bit older, would you enjoy spending a summer traveling around the country with your family, stopping in to see minor league players/parks you might not see otherwise (while your wife/daughter are doing something else for a few hours if they’re not interested)?
Klaw: When she’s older I’d enjoy a summer traveling around the country with my family and not seeing any baseball at all. I call such a thing a “vacation.”

Kevin: Proud papa of a 9 month old who has yet to travel long distance with him. Would it be pure hell to put him on a plane now? Several people have suggested not traveling until he is at least two years old.
Klaw: We traveled with my daughter when she was six months and it went fine.

Bruce: You had recommended Jasper Fforde’s Dragon Slayer series for my 12 year old son last year. He read all three books and loved them. He now keeps asking me when the 4th book will be coming out. Do you have any other books or series to recommend for him?
Klaw: Try Diana Wynne Jones’ Howl’s Moving Castle series. And I too would like to know when the 4th Dragonslayer book is coming out.

Oren: Nick Kingham has apparently looked excellent in his rehab back from TJ. I almost forgot that before he went down, he was considered by some a Top 100 prospect. Could he regain his old prospect status as a good middle of the rotation piece?
Klaw: Yep, don’t see any reason why not.

Marcus: Giants made Blach a September call-up. Could he be useful in the 5th starter role instead of Cain/Peavy. He has great command and total innings on the year doesn’t look like a problem.
Klaw: I think long term he’s a reliever, but they need a 5th starter and he’s probably better than those guys, neither of whom seems likely to post an ERA south of 5.50.

NIC AZ: What do you make of the season that Trinson McKenzie has had? Do you think he will be considered for your Spring top 100 prospect list?
Klaw: If I say I’ll consider him that’s unfair because I consider just about everyone (and discard most of them right away), but McKenzie is a very exciting prospect with tons of projection left. You could just dream on him and see a future 1 or 2.

EC: Could Bukauskus go top part of round 1 next year? For guys like that, is it better to go to college, or just come out of HS? Seems like you can always go to college… but the big leagues provide an opportunity right away that might not be there next time around.
Klaw: Could go first round. Hard to see him going top 10 with that reliever-ish delivery and lack of size or plane. It’s all now – what you see is what you get, so get him to the majors quick.

Zach: Hi Keith, I asked you at the beginning of the season about Jon Gray, and you mentioned the fastball was straight and the delivery has no deception (amongst other problems). I was just wondering if you’ve seen anything from him this season that’s made you more optimistic about his potential as an above-average starter?
Klaw: Yes, they’ve lengthened him back out (or he did it himself) a bit so that his velocity has ticked up and he’s getting a little more plane on everything. The slider was there in college, not there last year, is basically there again. So I’m back on the bandwagon after I was off it last year and was on it when they drafted him.

Walter: My wife and I are expecting a child soon. We live in an apartment and our neighbor has a two month old. Based on who their doctor is, I think there is a high likelihood they aren’t going to vaccinate. This worries me. We can tell them they should vaccinate and try not to let the kids near each other. Any suggestions?
Klaw: Do just what you said. Please vaccinate your kid or we can’t be near you. I see no problem at all with ostracizing parents who make such utterly selfish, irrational choices.

JWP: Wasn’t an option pick-up due for someone in AZ’s front office yesterday? What happened with it?
Klaw: Dave Stewart. Don’t believe it was picked up.

Drew: If Trea Turner had been called up earlier in the year (assuming he consistently performed at his current level) do you think he’d give Seager a run for his money in terms of ROY voting?
Klaw: I think Seager came into the year as the favorite and would thus have had a leg up on Turner anyway, but Turner could have locked in to the #2 spot.

Vin: Could Tyler Beede step into the Giants’ rotation in 2017? What do you think his ceiling is?
Klaw: Don’t think the command is there for him to step in next year. He’s back to throwing four- and two-seamers rather than that 88-89 mph sinker, though, which is a big positive.

Mike: Last year, Kyle Lewis really put his name on the map as a prospect with his play on the Cape. What player(s) have done that during this summer’s Cape Cod League?
Klaw: Nobody to that extent. Michael Gigliotti of Lipscomb or Peter Solomon of Notre Dame were the breakout guys I know of.

Blergher: True or False: 1) Jake Locker holding a private workout would–on merit–be of more interest to MLB teams than a Tebow workout? 2) Fewer teams would send scouts nonetheless.
Klaw: First is true, second is false. Locker had real baseball skill. He played a summer during college in the West Coast League and still showed real ability. He’d get scouted and signed.

Johnny: Trumbo is obviously a large factor of playing half his games at OPACY, but he is still having a big year, and hitting on the road as well. Has he made a positive leap in your mind, carer wise?
Klaw: It’s not the ballpark at all – Camden Yards is neutral or slightly above, and Trumbo’s been just as potent on the road anyway – but this spike at age 30 without a significant change in his underlying skills screams fluke. Great season, and I hope he gets to 50 homers because that’s just cool when anyone does that, but I’d bet on him returning to the player he was previously in 2017.

Anthony: Have you seen anything with Jorge Soler to suggest he can finally put it together?
Klaw: I’m the wrong person to ask. I’ve always thought he’d put it all together.

Mike: Is Nick Storz a 1st Round pick for next season right now with the summer he has put in?
Klaw: I don’t think so. Long way off, though. Any round prediction on a guy right now is marginally better than throwing darts.

Keith: Re: Vacation – do you still enjoy going to the ballpark? It’s kinda funny to me – something everyone else would consider a leisurely day off is like a trip to the office for you. Granted, it’s probably a fun job at times but still…
Klaw: Nope. True vacation for me means no baseball at all. Don’t watch, don’t check scores, nothin’.

James: Can Mondesi Jr hit? His average in the minors wasn’t good and he looks lost on offspeed stuff.
Klaw: I think he will hit, and he could hit, except he’s always been so young and small for his levels that he’s never really had the chance to catch up physically.

BD: Not worried about Giolito’s very limited MLB showing so far, but am a little worried about his velocity. Despite all the scout talk of an 80 grade fastball, it seems to sit 94 with little movement. Is he “aiming” it? Are scouts worried?
Klaw: Second question about him having an “80 grade fastball” I’ve gotten this week. He has never had an 80 fastball that I know of. He hit 98 in high school, pre injury. Supposedly he hit 100 the week before I saw him; I didn’t see that and don’t believe it ever recurred. And he’s pitched in pro ball at 93-98, at best, which isn’t an 80 fastball although it’s really good. So I don’t know where the “80 grade fastball” came from, and him sitting 94 with his four seamer is about right. I’d like to see him throw more two-seamers, especially since he’s not commanding the four-seamer enough to get away with it in the zone.

Nate: Zack Collins is start at HiA has been pretty solid. Any reports on his catching?
Klaw: He’s not a catcher. He’ll hit his way to the majors at another position.

Bob: Big believer in vaccines. That said, what is the danger of letting your vaccinated child play with one who is not? They are protected from the diseases they’re inoculated against, right?
Klaw: Not necessarily. Vaccines aren’t 100% effective, just like any medical treatment isn’t 100% effective. Some, like the pertussis vaccine, are well under 100% effective, and we rely on herd immunity to make up the deficit.

Juan: A friend of mine has a son, who seems to be a very good player, go to a Division 2 school in Southern California. How does that talent at D-2 schools in hotbeds for talent like SoCal stack up against the talent at some of the lower level D-1 schools?
Klaw: It’s well below even the lower level D1 schools.

Jeff: What is your opinion on Arenado’s MVP chances? Does the fact that he plays half of his games in Coors take him out of the race?
Klaw: That kills him and the team being a non-contender kills him. Park-adjusting his stats takes him out of the race on merit anyway. He’s legitimately great, but not up to Bryant/Seager.

Mike DC: Are they Yankees making a mistake shifting Luis Serverino back and forth from starter to bullpen ala Joba? They sent him down recently to work on his change up and now have him back up to help ML team in bullpen – does this increase his risk of injury?
Klaw: Yeah, not a fan of the back-and-forth. Put him in the pen, in whatever role you want, and leave him there.

Pete: I know your employer is the chief culprit, but please explain the sports world’s fascination with Tebow? He was a huge 1st round bust in the NFL and has been out of the league for years.
Klaw: He gets clicks. I like clicks too, but would rather not sell my soul to get them.

marty: Last chat you mentioned it was down to Bryant and Seager for NL MVP. Why is Murphy not a legit candidate?
Klaw: Because defense matters.

davey: Where do you stand on Public Enemy and De La Soul?
Klaw: I’m a fan of their classic stuff. The new DLS is very mixed.

Lee: I don’t get the problem with Moncado coming up now? The Sox haven’t said he’s going to be the everyday 3rd basemen so what’s the problem with him spending a month with the big club and maybe pinch running/ grabbing a couple ABs?
Klaw: One problem is adding him to the 40-man roster before it was close to necessary. If what you say is correct and he’s just an extra guy it’s not a big deal. If they try to play him more, I don’t know if that’s good for the club or for his development.

Elton: The Dodgers’ offseason of depth-building seems to have paid off since they’ve been weathering Kershaw’s absence quite well. With a weak free agent crop coming up do you expect more of the same this offseason?
Klaw: I don’t think there’s an alternative out there – there’s no Greinke on the market this time. But what helped them weather Kershaw’s absence: the depth signings they made over the winter, or the players already in the system who came up and contributed?

Nate: Any chance that Zach Burdi is a starter?
Klaw: Yes, a small chance, but a definite chance.

Rich (Rochester): Why do the Triple-A leagues even bother staging playoffs?
Klaw: For money. It’s the answer to almost every “why” question you could ask about baseball, really.

William Bradley: Hi Keith – do you feel Brendan Rodgers will advance quickly through the minors to become a MLB player by 2018? Also, should I give up on Matt Olson as an MLB prospect given his dreadful year? (although he is still walking at a good clip)
Klaw: That’s aggressive, improbable but not impossible. Needs a full healthy year though – the ABs he lost this year didn’t help speed up his timetable. I was a little lukewarm on Olson anyway and I think his window has mostly closed.

James: Is the 40 man roster an outdated idea? I really don’t understand the purpose of having it.
Klaw: It defines who is and isn’t a union member, and players on the 40-man thus have more rights, clearly delineated in the CBA, than players not on the 40-man. Players on the 40-man are also invited automatically to spring training. It serves a lot of purposes. We could debate whether that number should be 42 or 45 or something else, but I think having that second roster serves many purposes.

Rich: Any recommendations for games, activities, flash cards to help a 2 year old learn very basic math/science?
Klaw: We never tried anything like that with my daughter. We let her interests dictate what we got but never really tried to teach her much directly. She also spoke a little late (after help from a speech therapist provided by the state of Massachusetts, so, hey, sometimes government actually does work for you) so we weren’t thinking about pushing her to learn anything.

Elton: I know in the past you’ve been higher on Hoskins than Cozens in the Phillies’ system. After pummeling AA this year do you think one or both makes it up next year?
Klaw: Likely we see both next year. Still prefer Hoskins as a better hitter.

Ridley Kemp: Andrew Pullin retired this spring, came out of retirement, and he’s having a pretty strong season. Do you know what the story is, and how good a prospect is he?
Klaw: I don’t know the story of the retirement but he is a legit prospect and possible everyday guy.

Jeff R: Is it weird to see Dusty not bury Turner on the bench?
Klaw: Dusty has done the best thing he could possibly do this year: he’s let the players play. He’s had his foibles but hasn’t buried any young players, hasn’t been wildly overmanaging, hasn’t pulled a Terry Collins at any point. I had it backwards – I said the Mets had the managerial advantage this year but it turns out the Nats have had a huge edge in that department.

Jeff Chisholm: Is there anything Trump can do or say to reconsider not voting for him?
Klaw: There’s a pretty lengthy body of work behind this guy that should eliminate any consideration a rational, open-minded individual might give him on Election Day.

Jeff Chisholm: Are you related to Jude Law?
Klaw: He’s my identical twin brother.

Edward: I have long debated getting a Vitamix. Is it worth it?
Klaw: I think so. Very expensive, but very powerful. You know how sometimes you read a soup recipe and it says to put it in the blender, which is a great plan if what you really wanted was imperfectly pureed soup all over the ceiling? Yeah. The Vitamix won’t do that to you. It actually works.

Chris: I read somewhere that LAD inquired about trading for Greinke. Do you think he would have gotten far enough through waivers to reach them??
Klaw: He cleared waivers.

Mike: It’s early, but Bryan Reynolds looking like a guy?
Klaw: I thought he was a mid-first round talent this spring. He will have to improve his contact rate, but the other tools are all there, hit power run glove.

TK: No question, Keith. Just want to say thanks for all the hard work you do (baseball, boardgame and book reviews, etc.) It’s a pleasure reading your work and I hope one day to make it to one of your fan meetups.
Klaw: You’re quite welcome. I hope to do more fan meetups next year once my book is out; between writing that and dealing with a family matter this summer, I haven’t been out and about as much as usual, but that should change next spring.

Klaw: That’s all for this week’s chat. Thank you all for coming and for all of your questions. I should be back next Thursday at the usual time.

Love and Friendship.

My latest Insider post discusses why September prospect callups are a thing of the past.

If it’s possible for a Jane Austen work to be unknown, her novella Lady Susan likely qualifies. Written before her six completed novels but unpublished until fifty years after her death, the shortepistolary work tells the story of the widowed Susan’s attempts to marry off her daughter to a wealthy, amiable dunce, as well as her own juggling of affairs with two men, one the married Lord Mainwaring, one her sister-in-law’s brother Reginald de Courcy. As in most of Austen’s works, Lady Susan is full of dry wit, and the pressing need for women of that era to marry well for their own financial security is a major plot point.

American director Whit Stillman adapted the work for the 2016 film Love & Friendship (amazoniTunes), which peculiarly takes its name from an entirely separate work written by Austen as a teenager (with the title misspelled as “Love & Freindship”) and stars Kate Beckinsale as the conniving seductress of the novella’s title. Stillman’s direction is heavyhanded at times, but the dialogue is sharp and sparkling, while the key performances, especially Beckinsale’s, absolutely carry the film.

As the movie opens, Lady Susan is seen leaving the Mainwarings’ estate, having been thrown out by Lady Mainwaring – who is in hysterics every time she’s on screen – and arrives at Churchill, the estate of her late husband’s sister and her family, having nowhere else to go. Shortly after her arrival, she begins her temptation of Reginald, the young, handsome brother of Lady Vernon, an eligible bachelor who is intelligent but naive and quickly succumbs to the beautiful and more worldly Lady Susan’s efforts. The plot thickens when Lady Susan’s daughter, Frederica, arrives, trailed by the amiable dunce Sir James Martin, who has £10,000 a year and is as dumb as a sack of hair (although one of the script’s greatest strengths is making comedy gold of Sir James’ stupidity). Frederica wants no part of Sir James, while Lady Susan, who cares little for her daughter except as a means to a lucrative end, tries to put her maternal foot down, a move that eventually causes a conflict between her and her late husband’s entire family.

Austen’s plots are all straightforward, but she never crafted another central character as venal as Lady Susan, whom Beckinsale plays to the hilt as by turns coquettish and condescending. Beckinsale, now 43, fits Austen’s description of Lady Susan (“from her appearance one would not suppose her more than five and twenty, though she must in fact be ten years older”) quite well, but given her history of playing one-dimensional characters in mass-market action films, her acting prowess here came as a pleasant surprise; her performance drips with disdain for just about everyone around her, except her American friend Alicia Johnson (Chloe Sevigny), who appears to live vicariously through her avaricious friend. (The character’s nationality is unspecified in Austen’s novella, and Sevigny’s American accent is jarring amidst all of the upper-class British characers.) Beckinsale has to drive the film, as she’s at the center of every strand of the plot, but she does so with alacrity.

The one other key performance is Tom Bennett’s turn as Sir James Martin, looking and sounding a bit like Discount Colin Firth but managing to pull off his performance of an extremely likable, well-meaning dimwit, to the point where the viewer has real empathy for him even while understanding why Frederica might balk at his companionship. Although the trailer highlighted Sir James’ confusion over Churchill boasting neither church nor hill, his scene around the “twelve commandments” was the film’s real comic highlight.

We get just a bit of Stephen Fry as Lady Johnson’s husband and Lady Mainwaring’s guardian, but he’s woefully underutilized, as are Jemma Redgrave and James Fleet (Four Weddings and a Funeral) as DeCourcy’s parents. But the novella itself comprises mostly letters from Lady Susan, so Stillman’s script had to invent much of the dialogue and reimagine most of the characters beyond hers. He was more deft with that than with some of the peculiar shots in the film, from the odd way the characters are introduced to the strange close-ups we get of characters (one near the end of Lord Mainwaring looked like a mistake) at various points. Lady Susan is a trifle of a story compared to Austen’s novels, so the challenge for Stillman here was greater than it might have been in adapting Emma or Persuasion, but he and Beckinsale in particular have developed it into a fast-paced, often hilarious movie where no one gets what they want yet Lady Susan still seems to come out on top.

Stick to baseball, 8/27/16.

This week, for Insiders, I ranked the MLB players with the best hitting tools, fielding and throwing tools, and pitching tools. I held my weekly Klawchat on Friday.

For Paste, I reviewed the upcoming boardgame Tak, which was designed based on the fictional depiction of the game in Patrick Rothfuss’s Kingkiller Chronicles novels.

My last run at the helm of the BBTN podcast for this year came on Monday’s show, with guests Jerry Crasnick and Joe Sheehan.

And now, the links…

Klawchat, 8/26/16.

Starting at 1 pm ET. Questions go in the frame below, not in the comments!

My latest boardgame review for Paste looks at Tak, a game derived from Patrick Rothfuss’ Kingkiller Chronicles novels.

Klaw: Singing love songs can’t begin to fill your day, so try Klawchat.

Aaron C.: Apologies if you’ve addressed this already, but do you have a vote in any of the BBWAA awards this year?
Klaw: I have NL ROY again. Which is fine – it fits my job, certainly – although I think it’s funny that I’ve been sequestered from other votes.

Dave: I see you linked to the boardgame based on the Kingkiller books – have you read them? Thoughts? Personally I dont see any way there can only be 3 books…..
Klaw: No, I haven’t. Overlong fantasy novels are generally not my thing. But the game, Tak, is good, especially for something that was designed out of someone else’s fictional concept.

Steve G.: Hey Keith, so far, the results have been kind of OK for Dylan Bundy, despite the condition of his shoulder. What would you do if you were the Baltimore GM? Just have him start for as long as he can, knowing it might only be a year or two? Try to keep him in the pen? Thanks!
Klaw: I don’t know the correct answer for keeping him healthy, but I’ve noticed the last few starts that they’ve pushed him harder than I would have, and his stuff in his last three outings hasn’t looked like it did in the previous three or four. Perhaps the answer is he will always be plagued by arm trouble and they should just get what they can out of him. I think they are also so short of starting pitching – aside from whatever you’d call Bundy, they have one effective starter healthy right now – that they may feel they have no choice.

Alex: Gary Sanchez, is he for real? What can we expect from him going forward? Is he the next Posada?
Klaw: For real as in going to hit 9 homers every 20 games, probably not. But I have ranked him I think four straight years on the top 100, once pointing out that if he could stay at catcher he’d have MVP upside. That appears to be happening now.

Greg: One of the big bugaboos for Dom Smith until now (aside from lack of power) had been that he simply did not walk enough. That being said, he now has 11 walks in his last 11 games. This all aside from the fact that he’s mashing everything in sight. How excited should we be getting for him? Has he finally reached his potential?
Klaw: The amount of stat-line scouting on Smith the last few years was just comical. He was a young HS senior with a great swing, great feel to hit, and plus raw power. The Mets put him right into full-season ball, and he didn’t put up huge numbers right away, so the fake-scouting started – but he was never overmatched, never really struggled, always made contact, and if you saw him or talked to folks who did you knew he was working on going the other way because his pull power wasn’t resulting in HR. I could rant for a while but I’ve always thought he was at least an above average overall player at 1b and I still think that’s what he’ll be.

Michael Easter: There have been a lot of critical articles written about Jeff Luhnow and the Astros lately. What is your take on the Astros front office and the decisions they have made?
Klaw: He’s an easy target, especially since they’re playing well but not playoff well. They’re also a very young, very inexpensive team that is going to be highly competitive for several years to come.

Bill Center: Pads Luis Urias the next Altuve?
Klaw: Don’t see it. I like Urias but his body type is nothing like Altuve’s.

Biscuit: Read a few reports last year that Adam Engel had made some swing changes in the AFL with great results, allowing him to finally unlock some of his hit tool. Have you heard whether those changes have stuck? Stat line does not seem to indicate any sort of improvement.
Klaw: I thought it was a dubious claim and that his tools overall were too light for him to have any impact.

Derek: Scouting report on Trea Turner in CF?
Klaw: If you can run like that, you can play CF. And his routes have looked good so far.

Eric: With Duda likely to be non-tendered, do you think Smith will be ready for 1B for the Mets next year?
Klaw: I think that would be aggressive.

Biscuit: Given how far medicine has advanced it still amazes me how little recourse we have against common cold viruses. Is this truly an inability to develop treatments, or simply a decision to allow our bodies to fight them naturally in order to minimize viral evolution (like how we minimize antibiotic use).
Klaw: I think the problem is that there aren’t just a few common cold viruses, but three species with over a hundred serotypes. You may have more distinct viruses in your nose in one infection than there have been primate species in the entire history of life on earth. So, between that and the fact that colds rarely kill, it’s not going to be an efficient use of research time or money.

Timmy: It’s only 10 IP in the bigs, i know, i know, but Matt Strahm looks great. He’s only thrown a few changeups – understandable in a relief role – but those few have looked pretty good including the whiff of Realmuto last night. His fastball is leading MLB in whiffs/swing, the curve looks nasty and his walk rates in the minors and MLB this year have been strong. Can he hold down a rotation spot next year, and what should reasonable expectations be?
Klaw: I think he has the three pitches to start. Saw him in Wilmington last year and while it’s a little funky for the rotation I’d absolutely let him do it.

Matt: Any idea around what date Crawford and your draft top 30 is coming out? -Padres fan
Klaw: We’ve had to push it back a little with other stuff running on the site.

Chris K.: Michael Kopech is on a pretty ridiculous run right now. What are the odds that he remains a starter long term (putting injuries aside)?
Klaw: How many guys who throw that hard – okay, almost that hard – have lasted as starters? Syndergaard has. Strasburg didn’t maintain his fastball although he’s worked out very well. Eovaldi throws that hard and needs a whole new arm. So you can argue that Kopech has so few comparables that we don’t know, or that the few comparables we have say he’s at very high risk if he remains in the rotation. But I’d still rank him fairly aggressively even with the risk because it’s an 80 fastball and he’s athletic enough that I think he can improve in other areas to at least profile as a starter.

Brent: Is there something fundamentally flawed with Minnesota’s player development (looking at Berrios, Sano, Buxton, etc.), or is this just normal growing pains / the inherent unpredictability in prospects. I know projecting prospects is inherently a difficult task, but it just feels like there’s got to be more here…the player development seems fundamentally flawed. Thoughts? How do you even go about fixing something like this?
Klaw: I think the hitters’ issues are more the coaching staff – and I’ve mentioned that before – but with Berrios, look at all the pitching prospects who’ve come up this year and struggled out of the chute. It’s not just him and not just the twins.

Will: Brando Nimmo is scorching lefties at Triple A this year. Now we’re talking about 116 plate appearances in Vegas, but have you heard any reports that this aspect of his game has improved?
Klaw: It’s Vegas. Someone pointed out to me on Twitter that Nimmo’s AAA stats were better than Seager’s. The ballpark destroys any value in the stats.

Jesse: I know you’re not a football fan, but do you have any thoughts on the Joey Bofa situation?
Klaw: You really think I just fell off the turnip truck?

John: Anything to the s guys the Braves got in the Francoeur deal?
Klaw: Nope, org guys.

Chris: Can’t make it to the chat today because of work, but should the Angels trade Andrelton Simmons this winter? I imagine there would be a lot of interest, and it logistically makes more sense than trading Trout.
Klaw: If the mandate from the owner is to build the best possible team around Trout, then no.

Marty: Who do you take going forward, Gary Sanchez or Willson Contreras?
Klaw: Gosh, I like both. A lot. Probably Contreras because he’s the better athlete and I think will end up the better receiver, but Sanchez’s bat is pretty special and he wouldn’t be the wrong answer.

Dave M: Who are your top 5 current contenders for NL MVP?
Klaw: Right now I think it’s Bryant or Seager.

Nelson: Just statistically speaking, there must be some pitchers today that can handle Cy Young’s workload (400+ IP) over a career and not have any injuries, right?
Klaw: Doubtful given how much harder pitchers throw today.

Eric W: Addison Russell has tapped into some major power in the 2nd half and is now on pace for around 25HR. And he’s 22. What do you think his power ceiling is at this point? Has he raised it?
Klaw: Given his hand strength 25 HR/season would not surprise me. I think overall he’s developing into the player I thought he’d be (I mean, he’s doing it NOW).

JWP: Any guesstimate as to when/if Shoehi Ohtani comes to MLB?
Klaw: Absolutely none. I assume he will because it’s in his financial interest to do so, but he could choose to stay home as long as he wants and I wouldn’t question it.

Michael Conforto: Why am I in Las Vegas? And why would you put me at first base or centerfield?
Klaw: You’re in Vegas because the Mets’ manager hates youth so much he watches the Little League World Series and boos the television.

Bruce K: My kids are 7 and 13. Can you recommend some board games that will be simple enough for my youngest but still challenging for the rest of the family? Its tough finding games the whole family can play together.
Klaw: The 7-year-old is the gating factor here – but I think there are plenty of good Euros that someone that age can handle. I always suggest Ticket to Ride to start. I think Splendor is simple and elegant enough for that age – the rules are 2 pages, which is a great sign.

Eric W: Have you gotten to vote for CY Young since your somewhat famous (and correct) 2009 vote?
Klaw: Nope, ROY every year since but one (Manager). Never had an MVP vote.

Kevin: Do you think David Ross has what it takes to be a solid manager without getting coaching exp first?
Klaw: I would answer that by asking how big league managers without any prior managing experience have fared overall.

Anonymous: Kyle Higashioka has had a breakout season for the Yanks. Has he turned into a real prospect or is it just a case of being old for his level?
Klaw: Where does he play? He can hit some but I don’t know at what position.

CL: Hey Keith, lot of talk about figuring out ways to make baseball relevant/interesting for young people. What would you do to generate more appeal for the game (both the sport and MLB)? Thanks.
Klaw: The one thing I wouldn’t do is start changing the core product. That will just start an endless cycle of trying to predict consumer tastes. I think getting players out there more in marketing efforts and in the community is huge – MLB has long had trouble marketing its stars, and when it does so it often focuses too much on one or two players. Of all of the ideas Manfred floated recently about altering the game itself, the only one I liked was reducing pitching changes, because they create so much dead time and I’m not even sold that they’re an effective strategy on the whole.

Lyle: I saw where a sportswriter was advocating that the Olympics should be cancelled just a few weeks before they were due to start. Given the lack of disasters related to Zika, sewage, etc. what would say to that sportswriter now?
Klaw: If you saw the VICE piece on what a disaster the Rio Olympics really were, you’d say he was right. Brazil would be better off if the games had never happened. I hope we never have another Olympics here in the US unless the IOC wants to pay to build everything.

Brian: Desmond Lindsay has a 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio and an OPS near 1.000 for Brooklyn. Does he project as a big league regular? What is his ceiling?
Klaw: That’s a long way off to be focusing on his stats but I happen to think he is a future regular with a star ceiling because of his speed and athleticism.

Ben: Did your pitching tools piece get posted yet? Realize I may have just missed it.
Klaw: Yes, it’s up.

JP: Reds fans are drooling over Senzel’s performance in Dayton so far. But isn’t this what he SHOULD be doing against A-ball pitching?
Klaw: Yes, exactly. It’s great to see, but I don’t think it tells us anything about him we didn’t already know. Dude can hit.

Brian: I asked you this on Twitter last night prior to Loney being unable to put his foot on first base last night. How many would Conforto have to be defensively at first to be a worse all around player than Loney? Would he have to drop 50% of the balls thrown to him? Tackle Thor mid windup?
Klaw: It doesn’t matter. Terry won’t play Conforto unless he can show a birth certificate that says he’s 30.

Tom: Keith, the government (FDA) advises that American’s eat too much sodium. I recall you writing years ago that sodium is not harmful. How do you choose to follow science in some areas (global warming), but ignore it in other areas (nutrition)?
Klaw: I love these questions. Your mistake is that you assume that what the government (FDA) says is founded in science, when it’s not. There is no scientific research supporting the position that consuming salt is harmful to people with normal blood pressure. The government (FDA and USDA, I believe) also claimed for years that a high fat diet was harmful in spite of evidence that it’s sugar, not fat, behind our rising incidence of heart disease, obesity, and possibly (although it’s very complicated) certain cancers.

Archibald Meatpants: How long until you are in Williamsport, analyzing the slash lines of 12 year olds and giving up future projections for them?
Klaw: When is hell scheduled to freeze over?

Colin: On twitter you expressed disdain for xFIP. What’s the problem with it?
Klaw: Doesn’t work. It’s an experimental (x) stat that has not panned out in reality. It doesn’t predict what it was supposed to predict. Don’t use it.

Tom: Do you get to watch a lot of Cubs games? If so, what are your thoughts on Baez v. Russell at ss? I swear that Baez has better range and a much stronger arm, and that Russell should move to second instead. I acknowledge that they are both very very good, but Baez makes some ridiculous plays.
Klaw: Russell’s less flashy and more consistent. Baez does have the better arm. At a position that handles that many balls in play, I’d rather have the guy who’s probably going to make more plays in total.

Petey: Has there been anyone since you have been in the business that you saw as nothing more than an org guy, yet worked their way into becoming a big league regular?
Klaw: Oh yes, probably quite a few. Think of it this way: I rank 100 players in every draft class, but no draft that I can remember has produced even 40 big league regulars … and that list always includes a few players taken beyond the fifth round. So right there you will have players I know and chose not to rank who ended up several grades better than I said or implied they would be.

Philip: Quantrill or Puk at this point?
Klaw: I talked to two scouts who saw Quantrill in the last month, and based on that, I’d take him. But I have not seen Quantrill, ever, so I’m comparing scouts’ reports on him to my own looks at Puk (too many).

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: What are your thoughts on Bochy leaving Moore in for 133 pitches last night, chasing the no-hitter?
Klaw: I was asleep, so i didn’t see it and don’t know how he looked or if he was showing signs of fatigue. Given his injury history, I’d handle him fairly cautiously.

Steve: Does a team like the braves have any sort of impetus to keep the “rookie eligibility (under 130 abs?)” intact for a guy like swanson so he could potentially be ROY in 2017? Marketing opp?
Klaw: There’s a disincentive to do so because a player who wins ROY gets paid more in arbitration.

Frank: What do you make of “safe spaces” and “trigger warnings”? Kudos to U of C, right?
Klaw: What they said in their letter was generally positive. Unfortunately it appears that what they say and what they do are not quite the same thing; a former student body president at U of C had some things to say about this on Twitter last night that, if true, put the university in a very poor light on subjects like sexual assault.

Preston: What teams do you think have the most to gain from their September call ups?
Klaw: Who’s getting called up? I couldn’t give you five prospects of any significance whom I think will be recalled next week who haven’t already been up. Most of the guys who matter are up already. Teams aren’t waiting till September for that, and we don’t see many prospects recalled in September if they’re not going to play regularly … so teams just call them up whenever the opportunity arises, September or August or July or whenever that may be.

John: He wasn’t on anyone’s midseason list but Luiz Gohara has some pretty interesting numbers. What’s the skinny on him?
Klaw: Nothing skinny about him. Picture a young CC Sabathia arm with a mid-20s CC Sabathia build. It’s legit though – kid’s got big velo and a potential hammer.

Tom: Britton gave up an earned run — gasp! Should we assume the narrative voters are deserting him now?
Klaw: Plus he’d given up a run in June so the streak was basically accounting bullshit anyway.

JP: Is defensive WAR largely a product of chance, in addition to ability? I see certain guys dWAR fluctuate wildly from year to year, but I can’t imagine their innate skill set diminshes or improves all that much over the course of a year.
Klaw: It’s the product of chance in the sense that the set of balls in play a fielder might get to field in a given year is totally beyond his control, and it will vary from year to year.

A: Help me understand why my Phillies are calling up Alfaro now? I thought they were making it a priority only to call guys up when they could stay up.
Klaw: They only have three catchers on the 40-man. One is Rupp. One is Ellis, who isn’t physically with the team yet. The third is Alfaro, so he gets the call.

Brian: Why did you say Arrieta is second in command? He has been walking a ton of batters this year and I think teams have figured out how to get his pitch count high.
Klaw: Because it’s not a list of who’s done what in 2016 as if nothing before that ever happened. (Also, I thought about making a VP joke here but I figured I should just answer the question.)

John: When’s the next spotify list coming?
Klaw: I do them at the beginning of every month.

Jon: Reds have looked good since All Star break, What do you think are the chances they can compete in 2017?
Klaw: Zero. Less than zero, if that’s possible.

Bruce K: Lewis Brinson has been off to a great start since being traded to the Brewers though he is in a huge hitters park. How do you project him and when will he be in Milwaukee?
Klaw: He’s in a huge hitters’ park and I don’t think anything has changed about him at all. He could debut at some point next year, and I think his defense will carry him for a while but he’ll probably have a year or two of excessive strikeout rates before he becomes the sort of complete player I project, with All-Star upside because he has 30-homer power.

Matt: Faedo or Lange currently top college pitcher in 17 draft?
Klaw: Faedo or Wright or Houck but Lange is not in their class at all.

Lyle: Overall? Sure. The Olympics are a big money drain and the higher-ups are very corrupt. But once you’ve spent the money, it would have been an even bigger disaster to the Brazilian economy to not then hold the games.
Klaw: Would it? They spent a ton of money to operate the games, such as security costs. They would have done better had they skipped the bid and simply handed out the $20 billion they spent to their citizens.

A’s Brand Merlot: A’s got a good return for a pitcher whose name I can’t spell, right?
Klaw: Eh, he’s fine. Nice return for a lefty specialist. Not a significant prospect, more a college guy beating up A-ball pitchers.

Tom: In your opinion, who will make more plays at ss, Russell or Baez? Sorry for the follow-up but your answer was a bit unclear.
Klaw: Russell.

Brian: Do you limit your sugar intake given your love of pies, oreos and dining out?
Klaw: At a certain point the questions about what i eat border on “none of your business.”

Tim: Winker’s power this year is zippo (though he is coming off a wrist injury). Still project him as at least an avg regular in LF or having second thoughts?
Klaw: Wrist injuries sap power. No change.

Brad: I have made several pies now. Fillings always turn out. But I have been hit and miss with the crust. Any tips?
Klaw: Without knowing what recipe you’re using and what kind of pie dish I can’t give you any advice.

Bob: What bothered me about Moore throwing 133 pitches last night is the continued fascination everyone seems to have with the no-hitter. Garbage pitchers have had a great day (along with some luck) and thrown a no-hitter. It ignores walks (Moore had 3 last night). And it forces managers to manage in a way that elevates the stats of one player above the team. That was proved last night when Moore was removed immediately after giving up a hit. Bochy didn’t risk the game last night, but if Moore’s arm can’t recover, he may have jeopardized other games. The goal is to win games not give a player a thrill.
Klaw: Bud Smith! Jose Jimenez! I agree, I love no-hitters as a fan but their importance as entertainment is not connected to their importance as a game in the standings.

David: During this chats, how many questions are about baseball, politics including health policy and vaccination, and just pure hate?
Klaw: The pure hate mostly went away when ESPN ended the chats and I started them up over here.

JJ: Who was your favorite player when you were a kid?
Klaw: Willie Randolph.

JR: Regarding interest in baseball for young kids – I think it’s still very strong. the little league team my son played on last season continues to grow and add more teams/kids. This fall he will be joining a club team and there is tons of interest. One area that should be concerning to MLB is making the game available for minorities/lower income families. It’s expensive. I’m fortunate that I can afford it for my son, but I’m sure many cannot.
Klaw: That’s especially the travel ball problem. You shouldn’t have to spend thousands of dollars for your kid to play baseball.

JR: You still watching “The Night of?” The pilot was excellent, but I feel like the quality has been dropping off each week.
Klaw: I haven’t had time since episode 3. I’ll pick it up again soon.

Brian: Would you trade Trout if you ran the Angels? I imagine a Herschel Walker situation where a star player brings so much in return that it lays the foundation for success? If you can get a TOR pitcher, and four good-great bats, isn’t it a deal you have to do if you aren’t a contender and your minor league roster sucks?
Klaw: If the owner would permit it, yes, because I don’t see another way to make this team good before his contract is up.

Jonah: Austin Meadow or Lewis Brinson?
Klaw: Meadows because I think he has a more advanced feel for the strike zone. Brinson has more power and is the better defender.

Jay: Have you changed your opinion on Chad Kuhl? Seems to be adjusting well to the majors
Klaw: He has a 4.22 FIP and lefties are hitting him hard, so, no.

Chris: How should someone assess a guy like Brian Dalbec, who looked like a solid, if risky and unspectacular, prospect before the year, had a terrible college season in not-so-many at bats, and a terrific start to his pro career in even fewer at bats? Split the baby?
Klaw: He’s changed his swing quite a bit already, so I’m a little more optimistic about him now than I was in June.

Brad: Follow up: I have been using shortening, butter, flour, water recipe for the crust. Switched from glass to metal dishes on the last pie.
Klaw: I prefer tempered glass and Stella Parks (@thebravetart on Twitter) recommends them too. Her all-butter recipe is pretty easy to work with and produces a pliable dough, but I’ve used shortening and butter like you do and have had success. I use the food processor to mix in the fat, then add the water (ice cold) by hand with a rubber spatula. Handle gently and don’t let the fats melt. I hope any of that helps.

Len: You don’t want to answer all food questions? Seems like you want to have your cake (pie) and eat it to.
Klaw: I’m happy to answer food questions.

Elton: Have you ever thought about designing a board game?
Klaw: Yes. I need the time. I have 2-3 ideas kicking around in my head. GenCon was an eye-opener in two ways: on the one hand, there are a TON of games in the market already, but on the other hand, the barrier to entry is as low as it’s ever been.

Biscuit: I feel like water temperature is almost always the issue with pie crust…needs to be ice cold.
Klaw: Yep, no question. And on warm days I will put an ice pack on the part of the marble counter where I expect to roll out the dough.

Dave: Have you ever used a Big Green Egg or other ceramic grill? Thoughts?
Klaw: I have not but Jason Grey (RIP) always raved about his BGE.

Graig, MN: In the past you’ve said you didn’t think Seager was too big for SS and wouldn’t stick; how long do you think he stays there?
Klaw: He’s looked great there. He’s defying history every time he takes the field there.

Albert: Keith, I think the unwritten rule (except in rare cases of total dominance) that the MVP must come from a contender is stupid and unfair. Do you agree and if so would you be willing to write a blistering post about it like your piece about the Diamondbacks front office?
Klaw: I’ve done that. Hasn’t worked.

Harry: If Global warming was proven to be 95% increased solar activity and 5% humans, would you be more upset (because we can’t really change it) or relieved that it wasn’t caused by humans?
Klaw: Woof. I think more upset that we’re kind of screwed.

Josh: Do you think Austin Slater could be an everyday outfielder? Is his recent power surge in Sacramento sustainable?
Klaw: Probably not an everyday guy. Five of his 12 HR in AAA came in a series at Reno, which is 4500 feet above sea level. But I like his swing and think he’s a big leaguer.

Pete: Do you like Josh Bell at 1B? All star potential?
Klaw: All-Star potential with the bat. Hoping for ‘tolerable’ with the glove.

Matt K: Jake Bauers or Dom Smith? Numbers @ AA this year are nearly identical. 4 months apart in age. Who do you like more and why?
Klaw: Smith. Way better fielder, far more raw power.

Chris: I live in Nevada, a state where there was a civil war last legislative session to slightly raise taxes to help fund education in a state where education is among the worst in the nation. However, these same legislators seem to have no issue giving one of the world’s richest people $750M in tax money on the Raiders’ stadium. Why are our representatives always so bedazzled by building sports stadiums with public money?
Klaw: Because there’s little reward in improved education but big reward in building a stadium. Elected officials will do what they need to do to get reelected. And as long as people vote like they do today this won’t change.

Jack: I am really confused on your opinion on Kuhl. So your saying no chance of sticking as a starter? Not even a No. 5?
Klaw: Why are you confused? If you can’t get lefties out, teams will stack their lineups with lefties, and you’ll end up a reliever.

Jace Peterson: Would the Braves giving Albies a Sept call up serve any valuable purpose?
Klaw: No, since he’s not on the 40.

Gabe: Mr. Law, what do you make of the season that Greinke has had? How concerned, if at all, should Arizona be?
Klaw: Well, signing Greinke, who really relies on his fielders, after Andy Green left for San Diego, leaving Arizona without any plan for another coach to handle shifting and positioning, wasn’t a terribly good idea and isn’t Greinke’s fault.

Anthony: When selecting questions, do you tend to go more for questions posted during the chat or questions posted before? I know you get a ton and there is no way of answering all of them, but just trying to work the odds so my question has a better chance of getting answered. Although, I could always just ask a better question…
Klaw: I look at all of them. It’s much easier in this format than it was on ESPN.

Harold Bloom: Was a little surprised by the title of your book, if only because the snarky sort of “kill the win” stuff seems very 1) Sabrmetric 1.0 and 2) designed to appeal to fans who already think the way you do. Why do that route?
Klaw: The subtitle was the publisher’s idea, not mine, and I don’t think it’s set in stone either.

Rick: But Swanson wasn’t on the 40 man either until they decided to call him up.
Klaw: They needed a shortstop after Aybar was traded.

Scrapper: What would you set the over/under at for Steven Matz’s innings pitched next season?
Klaw: Probably 125. He has great ability and no history of staying healthy for full seasons.

A’s Brand Merlot: Hope Solo suspended and fired for calling opponents “cowards.” Your thoughts? Would a man be suspended for such?
Klaw: Actually she was fired for multiple violations of team policies, after something like five or six warnings.

Mike: Think the Rangers catch lightning in a bottle with Carlos Gomez? What happened to that guy?
Klaw: His approach melted, and he got thicker. The former can be fixed – stop swinging out of your shorts every time – but the latter isn’t changing before the end of the season.

Lee: What’s the typical recovery period for an ACL/ MCL tear? Worried that Benintendi could be out a lot of next season as well.
Klaw: I think about nine months but I still don’t see anything about him having a ligament tear.

Franklin: Have we reached the point in our society that Ben Franklin predicted: When elected officials utilize their influence to create more power for themselves, the whole system will crumble?
Klaw: I think we reached it a little while ago, at least the first half of it.

Mike: Would you put Reyes in rotation or leave him to the bullpen for the year?
Klaw: A few starts in September wouldn’t be a bad idea if they have the flexibility to do so (e.g., they’ve already clinched a wild card spot). It can help set him up to start for them next year.

Mike: Any hope that Bird can learn to play a ‘tolerable’ first base with major league coaching?
Klaw: He was really bad there before the injury. I thought he was far more likely to end up a DH.

Rick: The Braves could have played any combination of d’Arnaud, Jace, and Beckham at SS, as they had been the many times they sat Aybar. If it doesn’t make sense to bring up Albies just because he’s not on the 40 man, I’m not seeing how the logic is any different with Swanson.
Klaw: Except none of those guys is even a remotely capable shortstop. You’re running young guys out on the mound; you can’t put a 40 defender at short behind them. And if you want Swanson to be your OD shortstop in 2017, you call him up now to get him some reps.

Mike: Another thing regarding Hope Solo. Sports teams are really good at making a stand when they no longer have any use for the player that they are making a stand against.
Klaw: True dat.

CB: Re: The Ben Franklin question. Please. The love of power is hardly new among politicians. Boss Tweed (to take one example) was at the height of his power 150 years ago.
Klaw: Or the girth of his power.

Bob: Are you surprised what Taillon has done? Seems to be a future Cy Young contender
Klaw: Not entirely surprised. I was surprised when he came out like he did in AAA, but after talking to scouts and to Taillon himself it made sense – his delivery’s streamlined, he’s definitely thinking much more like a pitcher (he had a bit of a “thrower” mentality before) and he had more time to recover from TJ than most guys get. I do think there’s some Cy potential there, yes.

JR: How much of writing a book is a passion project vs money grab (not judging anyone looking to maximize revenue – I would do the same). It just seems like most successful sports columnists write a book at some point, so I’m curious what the main motivating factor is (mine would be the $$).
Klaw: For me, writing a baseball book is about learning to write a book, period, and I hope allowing me then to write books on other topics in the future. The money didn’t hurt, though; it paid to remodel our two full bathrooms, which turned out to be good timing since we learned that the wall between them was floating rather than sitting on a joist.

Tom (not the other Tom): And lastly on Hope Solo – based on comments by the players’ rep, does it boggle your mind how many people do not understand what constitutes First Amendment violations?
Klaw: It doesn’t because I know how little civics education I had at any point in school. In a related story, if I hadn’t made it part of my major in college, I would not have taken a single economics class anywhere in my life. And Americans as a whole suck at those topics.

Rick: The Braves also could have called up Daniel Castro, who is certainly a capable SS.
Klaw: Except he has a .239 OBP in the majors for his career, .266 in AAA this year. That doesn’t accomplish much.

Jonathan: Your answers re: Swanson since he was called up have been consistent and mirror what Atlanta FO has said. The “We want Swanson to be our 2017 OD Shortstop so bring him up now” answer completely ignores the fact that bringing Swanson up now makes him a FA after 2022, whereas bringing him up in mid-April next season makes him a FA after 2023. The Braves stink now. They are going to stink in 2017. The club control over Swanson in 2023 is far more valuable than anything else in the equation. The “we want him to be OD shortstop in 2017” rationale is cheap cover for “We need to market Dansby to sell tickets to our shiny new stadium in 2017”.
Klaw: Does that really matter that much? Do we know that he’s going to be so good that his free agency is going to matter? That he won’t sign a long-term deal? That giving him an extra 200 AB between now and next May 1st won’t make him a better player by 2018-19, when they hope to be more competitive? The overemphasis on what is essentially just money at some date six years in the future baffles me. It’s not the only variable in play, and perhaps not even the most important one.

steve: I know you have advocated for relief pitchers having little or no chance for a cy young award. I believe you advance ( and rightfully so) that since a starter pitches so many more innings that relievers can’t compete. I agree with you mostly. But I think a reliever who transcends the normal year as Brittan has done so far ( what will happen in the future will mostly likely fall apart) I contend that a starter pitcher only pitches in 28-32 games with his 190 -220 innings while a reliever can pitch in 70 innings and save 60 games. ( not that Brittan will) But that reliever is affecting twice the games sans the less innings. All things being equal the starter wins but with average starting pitchers and great reliever I say the reliever could win
Klaw: He’s affecting twice as many games but is not affecting them as much as the starter who faces seven times as many batters.

Rob: Have you followed the Epipen disgrace? Can anything be done about such obvious price-gouging?
Klaw: Yep. The feds could enforce existing antitrust laws.

Tom (not the other Tom): The other day on Twitter when you said “oh they read it alright” in regards to the DBacks brass reading your column, were you being mostly facetious or did you actually hear that they did?
Klaw: I know they did. They’ve been bashing me personally ever since.

JT: Is Albies even ready for a major league trial?
Klaw: I don’t think so; he’s still just 19. The silliest question of all is why Swanson (22, with SEC experience) came up and Albies (19) didn’t. I also happen to think that any player with Swanson’s experience should be in the majors in that 14-month range; Bregman and Benintendi are up, and I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Newman came up for Pittsburgh (and then started next year in AAA).

Walter Mondale: Read where you said you’re a Reagan fan. Why? Supply side doesn’t work.
Klaw: Reagan’s legacy is a lot more than “supply side,” and I don’t think saying “supply side doesn’t work” is universally true. Economic policies that work in one economic environment might fail in another. If I learned anything in all those econ classes I took, it’s that treating economics like a hard science is a good way to look stupid (and that’s why I don’t talk much economics outside of baseball).

Frank in Chicago: What has Alec Hansen been doing differently since his college days? I like this version. How many years away is he?
Klaw: Hoping to see him next week if schedule and weather permit. The White Sox sahy they’ve cleaned up the delivery. I was afraid he wasn’t healthy this spring, but so far so good on that front.

Happy: So, Yoan Moncada is confirmed for the AFL, playing third. Who else are you most looking forward to seeing?
Klaw: Haven’t checked the rosters, or decided which week I’m going, but I have been there ten straight years now and don’t think I’ve ever had a bad trip out there. It’s always loaded with hitters if nothing else.

PJ: Thoughts on Jeff Hoffman coming up this soon? Got roughed up and obviously pitching in Coors, but Jon Gray seems to have somewhat figured it out. Bright future for Hoffman?
Klaw: Great arm without deception. Pitches up too often with the fastball. Not the ideal formula for Coors.

Ted: I don’t know if the epipen is patented, but isn’t the point of a patent to share the idea with everyone in exchange for an exclusive right to sell for a period or time? What does that have to do with anti-trust?
Klaw: I believe the patent has expired. The issue is that Mylan spiked the price when their lone competitor had to suspend production.

Niall: What was dodgers offer for Archer? and will Jose de Leon pitch in the bigs this year
Klaw: I don’t know, and yes I believe he will be back.

Archie: Re: EpiPens….the senator who orchestrated the vote on giving one company and exclusive patent to market that type of pen, while also pushing though legislation that schools could only use that type of pen, happens to be the father of the company’s CEO. But, there won’t be an investigation because the senator is from the same team, I mean party, as the sitting president, who has appointed his cronies to the justice department with instructions to look the other way when the Ds do something that might look a little suspicious.
Klaw: Last I checked, the other party controls both houses of Congress and wouldn’t mind a bunch of cameras in a committee room watching them grill the CEO over her company’s price-gouging.

Corey: You’ve said that Moncada probably ends up in the OF. How does Boston handle that given that they don’t need another OF (assuming Benintendi isn’t out the next year with a torn ACL though I bet that’s what he has)
Klaw: I’ve said that I don’t like how he fields groundballs right now, and that it’s not ideal for an infielder. He could change that, or he could end up somewhere else. The latest is that he’s going to move to third, which then blocks Rafael Devers, who can already play third and I think has more offensive upside but is younger than Moncada and lacks the latter’s plus speed.

Jason: Isn’t this also a story of overregulation? The FDA wouldn’t approve competitors, which allows Mylan to raise prices with impunity
Klaw: You’re reaching the end of my knowledge on this topic, so i’m going to post your question and nod like I know what I’m talking about.

Ryan: To follow up on Jonathan’s long comment re: Swanson…if they aren’t going to be good next year, why not just wait until mid April 2018 to call him up then? At some point, you gotta bring people up. Sheesh.
Klaw: That’s a good rejoinder. Atlanta has certainly made mistakes – trading for Olivera was bad at the time and looks a thousand times worse now – but recalling Swanson isn’t one, IMO.

Klaw: That’s all for this week. Thank you all for reading and for your questions. I should be back on target for a Thursday chat next week, barring unexpected travel. Enjoy your weekends; for us it’s the last before school starts and I have to start getting up early on weekdays like a grownup again.

Adios, Cowboy.

The Croatian writer/poet Olja Savičević’s first novel, Adios, Cowboy, is a bizarre, darkly comic, postmodern fable set in Zagreb’s “Old Settlement,” a part of the city untouched by the Croatian war of Independence. (Zagreb itself is closer to Slovenia than Serbia, but was attacked by Serbian air and ground forces over the war’s five years.) This isolation drives the plot and the mood of the novel, where protagonist Dada, her mother, and her sister are trying to understand their brother’s suicide in the wake of their father’s death from an unspecified disease. And somewhere in here an American film crew shows up to film a western just outside of the Old Settlement because … I actually don’t know why, to tell you the truth, although its grizzled John Wayne-like co-director, Ned Montgomery, hovers over Dada’s family in posters and old VHS tapes.

The war may not have reached the Old Settlement, but the village exists in the war’s shadow. This is a town of survivorship, and the postwar generation is inured to suffering and crisis; Dada says early in the book that “people who have been lucky talk about the worst and the best days of their life. We who have been less lucky don’t talk about that.” Her name is no accident, as Dadaism emerged after World War I as an antiwar, anticapitalist, “anti-art” movement in reaction to what its adherents saw as the bourgeois underpinnings of that pan-European conflict. Here Dada exists in a circle around life rather than within it, heavily detached from her romantic affairs and the problems of her addled mother, yet obsessed with solving the mystery of why Daniel took his own life.

There’s no single plot thread in Adios, Cowboy, in case you couldn’t tell from those two paragraphs; the narrative, such as it is, is as scattered as the prose, producing a constant sense of unease in this reader, similar to that of reading the work of an unreliable narrator. Here, Dada isn’t unreliable so much as muddled, only partially present in her own life as she tries, like a bad noir detective, to unravel what drove Daniel to throw himself in front of a train Anna Karenina-style. She uncovers a partial plot involving their veterinarian neighbor who is probably gay but doesn’t appear, despite the suspicions of the local thugs, to have molested Daniel or any other boys, and finds some of Daniel’s last correspondences to the professor, which only serve to show how confused Daniel himself was becoming over the last few months of his life.

The main story of Dada and Daniel sputters out when she learns some of what was bothering Daniel but fails to find the smoking gun you’d expect in a story like this – if those books, where a survivor finds out some big secret that drove a loved one to suicide, are a type of art, then Adios, Cowboy is its anti-art – and the narrative jumps to the film shoot just outside of the Old Settlement. This bit reads like a related but disconnected short story, where the shoot descends into comic tragedy over a dead chicken and a local Roma woman whose grip on reality is tenuous. Ned Montgomery, of the posters on Daniel’s wall and the VHS tapes that Dada discovers, appears in the flesh on these pages, but as a relic, past his prime, trying not to admit it to himself, dependent on his assistant to function, working on this film as a last gasp back towards the embers of his old career.

Adios, Cowboy appears to have been met with universal praise when it was first published in English in 2015, and it is indeed a highly literary novel, rich with allusions, with a unique prose style and an unconventional structure. But I don’t think I fully understood Savičević’s point(s) here, perhaps because I don’t know much about the Croatian War of Independence or Croatian culture since the war, or perhaps because I couldn’t follow her peripatetic plot. It’s probably best for folks who like reading experimental literature, but not for those who read for story first.

Next up: I’ve finished Michael Ondaatje’s The Cat’s Table and have moved on to Jan-Philipp Sendker’s The Art of Hearing Heartbeats.

Stick to baseball, 8/20/16.

I discovered that my upcoming book has an amazon page for pre-orders! The tentative title is Smart Baseball (not #smrtbaseball, although we’re playing off that) and the tentative release date is April 27th. I suppose I need to finish writing it soon.

My main Insider piece this week covered the Reign of Error in Arizona under Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart, both of whom should be replaced now that their contracts are expiring. I held a Klawchat here on Thursday afternoon and discussed that piece a little more.

I was the guest host on the BBTN podcast this week, on Tuesday with Jayson Stark and WATERS singer Van Pierszalowski (a big Dodgers fan), Wednesday with Eric Karabell and Tim Kurkjian, and Thursday with Jerry Crasnick and Nick Piecoro.

I’ll be reviewing a boardgame a week for Paste through the end of the year, and the latest review is on Costa Rica, a light family game from the designer of Relic Runners and Elysium. It’s fun for the kids but I think too unbalanced for adults to play on their own.

And now, the links…

  • Juanita Broaddrick was the most credible of all of the women – and there were a lot – to accuse Bill Clinton of sexual improprieties; her accusation that the then-Governor of Arkansas raped her stood up to what scrutiny was possible twenty years after the incident. Buzzfeed talks to Broaddrick about her opposition to Hillary’s candidacy and asks why her case hasn’t gotten the attention today it deserves. (Hint: it might be because pretty much all non-right-wing media want Trump to lose.)
  • Florida’s Duval County prosecutor Angela Corey tried to charge a 12-year-old kid with second-degree murder while appearing to conspire with his public defender to coerce the kid into accepting it – then charging the same kid with molesting his 5-year-old brother after he rejected it. Corey and Jacksonville’s elected public defender, the delightfully-named Matt Shirk, appear to be crossing numerous ethical lines, including frequently charging minors as adults in felony cases. Corey is up for re-election this fall and if you live in Duval County you should examine her record.
  • Forget Zika or Ebola; yellow fever could be the next pandemic, and we are totally unprepared for it.
  • If you have young kids, when they turn 11 get them vaccinated against HPV. Just fucking do it.
  • A year ago it appeared that vaccination efforts had eradicated polio in Nigeria and thus in Africa as a whole, but it’s back thanks to Boko Haram. So vaccine deniers and murderous Islamists have something in common!
  • Why did NASA, an agency of the U.S. government, issue a $1 million grant to study theology? And why is it now refusing to reveal details of the grant?
  • You could see this coming a mile away: The Austin American-Statesman has run a redemption story for Paul Qui, the former Top Chef winner who was arrested for a domestic violence incident in March.
  • The Atlantic looks at the imminent climate change-induced demise of Kiribati after one of its weightlifters does a dance following a lift.
  • A new study published in Nature Communications found more evidence that neonic pesticides are harming bee populations. Neonics probably aren’t safe, and we should curtail their use until manufacturers can prove they are.
  • Gay BYU students who are victims of assault are disciplined for being gay when they try to report the crimes.
  • The 2016 Olympics haven’t had a major disaster, but the Guardian‘s Marina Hyde notes that they’re a disaster for the host country anyway. Her best point: arguing that the IOC itself should build a permanent home for the Games.
  • Arranged marriages are still common in many poorer parts of the world; NPR ran a fascinating story on one father’s campaign to free his daughter from a marriage he helped arrange.
  • Popular Mechanics explains that chemtrails aren’t real no matter what you read on tinfoilhat dot com.
  • I’m 36 and not on Facebook. You probably shouldn’t be either.” doesn’t quite make the case the headline promises, and I don’t agree with the conclusion, but I think it’s a point worth considering especially as social media, especially Facebook, change the nature of friendships in my generation and those that follow.
  • WIRED endorsed Hillary Clinton for President, the first official endorsement of a Presidential candidate in the publication’s history.
  • Those of you aged 35 and up might remember the Gopher internet protocol, which eventually lost out to the world wide web despite some early promise as the first user-friendly way to access information on the Internet.
  • British physicist and professor Brian Cox took on a climate change denier politican from Australia on the ABC (Australia) TV show Q&A, where the politican came off pretty clearly as a conspiracy theorist loon.
  • Physicists at UC-Irvine, building on research by another group working in Hungary, found evidence of a new subatomic particle that may carry an unknown force. The standard model of physics has long held that there are four fundamental forces; three of them, the weak, strong, and electromagnetic forces, appear to have all been unified at the moment right after the Big Bang, but a solution unifying gravity with the other three has proven elusive. This particle, thirty times heavier than an electron, might carry a fifth force previously unknown and unaccounted for in standard or modern models.
  • The “proton radius puzzle,” where the measurements of that subatomic particle’s radius differ depending on what is orbiting the proton, was further confirmed in experiments using deuterium, a hydrogen isotope with an atomic weight of 2 due to the presence of a neutron in the atom’s nucleus.
  • An experimental physicist in Haifa, Israel, created an artificial black hole to test one of Stephen Hawking’s predictions, namely that black holes will emit a type of feeble radiation (now known as “Hawking radiation”) that, over time, will lead to the black holes shrinking and vanishing entirely – taking all information lost in those black holes over their existence with them. These are early results and incomplete ones at that, but the linked piece gets into Hawking’s predictions and the information paradox.
  • The Romanian soccer team recently donned uniforms with math equations instead of numbers to encourage kids learning math, with kids also getting soccer-themed math questions to work on.

Klawchat 8/18/16.

Chat at 1 pm ET. Questions go in the chat frame, not the comments!

Klaw: I can feel the earth begin to move … for Klawchat.

Carl: Keith, what are the Braves doing with Swanson? Numbers in Double A are just OK and they aren’t going to compete next year. What’s the point?
Klaw: What’s the downside? If they think he’s going to be their OD starter next year at short, giving him 100+ at bats this year is a good developmental step. You don’t wait to bring up your top prospects until you’re ready to compete; you bring them up when it’s the right time for their development so that you can be ready to compete in the future.

Chris Sale’s Scissors: Love the work you’ve done this week subbing for Buster. Been a must listen all week. What’s your take on the supposed rift between Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams? As a fan of the team I don’t think they’ll ever be serious contenders as long as Williams is on the premises as he has no long-term vision whatsoever. His ego won’t allow a rebuild. I actually feel for Hahn, who SEEMS to understand what’s needed but can’t act due to the egos above him.
Klaw: I don’t know any details on the rift, but I agree that Hahn is the more progressive thinker while Williams is more reactionary and operates from an older playbook.

Frank209: Do you think KC’s plan with Strahm is to use him out of the pen this year and then move him into the rotation next year?
Klaw: I think he can be a starter and would hope they’d give him that chance at some point.

Billy: You have better access than me, so can you help get this done: if it takes more than a minute, minute and a half, to review a replay, there isn’t enough evidence to overturn and it stands. Please tell Manfred to make this happen. Thanks
Klaw: Nah, if you’re willing to wait 90 seconds to get the right answer you can wait three minutes.

Kyle: Why are you bias against the Diamondbacks? Just kidding, great write up.
Klaw: Thanks. I believe that is only the second time I have said a GM should be fired, after Bowden was accused of skimming Latin American player bonuses or simply allowing it to happen on his watch while with the Nationals.

Dan Lincoln: Altuve or Trout for best player in baseball right now?
Klaw: Trout. Altuve is having a Trout-like year. Trout is having his fifth straight Trout-like year.

Jacob Paukner: What have you thought of Musgrove so far?
Klaw: Only 18 innings but I’m surprised at the strikeout rate. Sinkerballer with control, so the other stuff isn’t surprising. Definitely a big league starter, average floor. Rare example of a guy who missed a lot of time with a shoulder issue and came back as good as ever.

James: How do you view Swanson relative to Trea Turner? Braves fan here, but I’ve watched a lot of Nats games over the past month and Turner looks like a star player with a better than advertised hit tool and a dynamic trait that Swanson doesn’t have (speed), does Swanson’s all-around prowess still give him the advantage in your mind?
Klaw: Turner has much more speed, Swanson’s more physical and will have some more power. As prospects, Swanson has/had the better floor, Turner had the better chance to be an impact player because the speed could be game-changing if he gets on base enough (which so far he has).

Dario Sanchez: What do you think about Encarnacion signing with Houston in the offseason? Seems like a good fit to fill in at DH and hit at Minute Maid.
Klaw: No. They have lots of guys who can fill the DH spot for them without giving up a draft pick or paying EE’s cost. They already have more bats than spots for them.

Jack C.: Hey Keith, have been real busy the past couple of days and have finally caught up with the flooding in Louisiana , especially Baton Rouge. Now please correct me if I am wrong because this may sound awful or morbid, but why do we (our country) keep funneling time, effort, and resources to parts of Louisiana that are already below sea level? Did we not learn anything for Hurricane Katrina? While people continue to believe that global warming is some hoax, homes and businesses will be underwater in those areas in the next couple hundred years. It’s happening now. It is just a matter of time until those sea levels rise a couple of feet and nothing can be saved.
Klaw: This came up after Katrina, and the best argument against it that I saw was that such places as the Ninth Ward of New Orleans were heavily populated by African-Americans, and thus such a policy would displace far more minorities from their homes. I tend to agree with you, though, that the cost of allowing those residents to stay in areas below sea level is going to escalate over time and that we need to find permanent housing solutions for all of those citizens rather than bailing them out, literally and figuratively, every five to ten years, including the attendant disruptions to their lives and their work.

Jack C.: Hey Keith, finally got the opportunity to do my first freelance scouting trip this past week to a Snappers – Timber Rattlers game. I loved it. I loved it so much I went down to Clinton, IA on Monday and Peoria, IL Tuesday to watch some more prospects (K. Tucker, A. Jackson, J. Woodford, T. Blankenhorn). I wanted to ask about something I saw in my first game regarding Trent Clark. He was playing CF when there was a ball hit to him off a broken bat. He took a pretty awful first step backwards and the ball eventually fell in front of him. Are broken bat hits extremely difficult to judge (as I imagine)? Does your average defensive outfielder make that play more routinely or is that something only seen out of gold-glove caliber players?
Klaw: He’s not a very good CF; I think he ends up in a corner anyway. Broken bat hits are tough to gauge, but a first step back is not a good sign for his instincts. He’s also just not fast enough to be an average defender in center.

Burlin: Can you recommend chapter book for a precocious 3.5 year old? I got the original Wizard of Oz on hold, but I’m not quite sure. I’ve got some lined up in the next year or two, but would like to start something sooner. Thanks.
Klaw: The Winnie the Pooh books are my go-to rec for that age. The vocabulary isn’t too high and the stories are very gentle.

Chris: Is Gavin Cecchini a viable option for Mets next season at 2B? I’d like to see him get some reps in bigs this season, totally understand the Vegas inflation factor on offensive numbers but would bringing him up for a look hurt at all?
Klaw: Yes, it would hurt because Terry Collins would have to come up with new excuses not to play him, then would criticize him to the local press, and then try to get Sandy to demote him to AAA even when Vegas’ season is over.

John: Is it a huge blunder that the rock bottom Braves called up its top prospect and waste his service time?
Klaw: No, because you have Dave Stewart level understanding of the rules. Giving Swanson 45 days of service this year isn’t going to affect his free agency or arbitration dates.

Nick: Any guys from the complex leagues or even DSL that have popped up or you’re hearing good things about that might make team top 20s or do next year? I’ve heard Jonathan Guzman referenced a couple time times.
Klaw: He’s one of the best names I’ve heard about. Legit 96-100 as a starter.

Nick: Seems like a repeat of last year for Soler: early struggles, prolonged hamstring injury, excellent hitting upon return. What is it with this guy, and what do you think his future looks like?
Klaw: I still think he’s a star if he stays healthy. He’s showing these last 2-3 weeks what he’s capable of doing, and I think he’s adjusting to that slider low and away that just killed him earlier in the year.

Jonas: What happened with Joba Chamberlin and Phil Hughes? Why didn’t they pan out as expected?
Klaw: Joba was jerked back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen, and eventually blew out. Maybe he was going to blow out anyway but a single consistent role would have helped. I thought he had the three pitches he’d need to start. Hughes was always a bit overrated for me with the flat fastball and lack of an average third pitch, so I think he probably met realistic expectations for him but not the hype around him.

Dana: Who do you like better to be the Yankees’ first baseman of the future, Bird or Austin?
Klaw: Bird is a bad defender at first.

Tony: Worried about Cody Reed after a rough start to his big league career?
Klaw: No. I don’t worry about any player after a “rough start;” I remember getting a few tweets asking if the Astros had made a mistake/could continue to live with him when he went 0 for 15 to start his career. And I think the differences in the baseball between the minors and majors are making it harder for pitchers to make the adjustment.

Mack: Regarding Chad Kuhl, when you say “doesn’t have a pitch to get lefties out”, are you saying that he just doesn’t utilize a 3rd pitch (like a changeup) or are you saying that the changeup he has is completely unusable? I saw him throwing changeups pretty frequently against a LHH-heavy Dodgers lineup and wasn’t sure if that was a new step for him or if it doesn’t matter because the pitch itself is just horrible. Thanks!
Klaw: It’s just not a good enough pitch.

Patrick: Who is a potential riser in the Sox farm over the next year? Josh Pennington? Roniel Raudes? Luis Alexander Basabe?
Klaw: Raudes for sure. They kept the good Basabe – I wonder if Arizona knew which one they were getting – and I’m definitely buying on him. I still like Travis Lakins quite a bit despite the rough debut season.

Nick: Any intel as to who the PTBNL in the Lucroy trade is?
Klaw: My understanding is that the player has not yet been decided on. So he will be named … later.

Joe: I agree with you re: closers and Cy Young/MVP potential. But I saw you interact with someone on twitter yesterday who was using WPA as an argument. Am I correct that your argument against that was that WPA for closers is somewhat like RBI for hitters, in that it is arbitrarily inflated by [managerial decisions]/[spot in lineup and quality of hitters a batter hits behind] and thus not reflective of actual talent and value?
Klaw: Yep, that’s pretty much it. And what WPA thus loses is how much of, say, Zach Britton’s very high WPA is a function of how he’s been used versus how he’s performed.

Kraig: Why did the Padres agree to take back Rae? Seems strange considering he made a start with the Marlins and he would have taken a physical before the trade was completed?
Klaw: He would not have taken a physical before the trade was completed. You can’t do physicals for in-season trades. The Marlins claimed the Padres had not disclosed something that should have been in Rea’s medicals.

Andy: Is Patrick Corbin’s major regression due to something that the org has done or is it just a cautionary tale that TJS is not a definite.
Klaw: I think they rushed him back – and I said so at the time, even suggesting this past offseason that they consider putting him in the bullpen for some of 2016 to try to slow things down – but I’m hopeful that he’ll be better in 2017 after another offseason of rest.

Walligator: Rowdy Tellez is up to .295/.387/.499 after a brutal start to the season. He is walking almost 13% of the time, while only striking out 18% (with 16 homers to boot). He is just 21 years young. While he undoubtedly has a “bad body”, and is likely to be a DH, is there nothing to like in his profile, given his age and inexperience at the level? Admittedly, I’ve only scouted his stat line–is he someone that you have to watch in person to pick out his flaws? I believe you said he has a long swing or one that can’t handle high velocity…is there any way he can make it work? His slash line at his age just seems excellent, and I would think some AA pitchers can hit the mid to high 90’s…does Rowdy have a chance at a big league future?
Klaw: New Hampshire’s a good place for LH power – remember Eric Thames – and no, he’s not facing mid- to high-90s that often. I think good pitching will eat Tellez alive, like it did in the AFL.

Jackson: Keith, loved the debate with Stark and was totally on your side. Who do you think is the frontrunner as of now?
Klaw: In the Cy Young debate? I don’t think there is one. Whoever has a great final six weeks gets it. And that could be Britton, because voters love a good narrative.

Andy: I commend you for you D-Backs article. Usually it seems, national press tries to stay above the fray to not give the appearance of impartiality. Nothing that was said was factually inaccurate, and the results have not been there, in large part likely due to the process. I am sure that you have your share of accusations of bias, (#meow) but analysis from people more in the know than I am, is why I pay for ESPN insider.
Klaw: Thank you. As I said to an exec who texted me about the story today, these are their mistakes. I just organized them.

Chase: Missed your amateur coverage this summer Keith, hope you’re ok. Can you give us a couple of your top names? This class better than last?
Klaw: Thank you. I have been going to fewer games this year for two major reasons – working on my book (which has an amazon page now!) and due to a family matter that required me to be home more. Chris Crawford did Team USA, Area Codes, and PG All-American for me, and I saw the Under Armour game. Between all of that and notes I’ve gotten from scouts who went to the Cape, I think it’s a better first round crop, lots of college arms, great HS crop in SoCal, weak in the northeast and northwest.

Nelson: The fact that an Olympian in High School cant accept an endorsement or even a concert ticket or else 2 years later she wont be eligible to compete in the NCAA has to be one of the dumbest things I learnt this olympics
Klaw: And another reason why the NCAA is a cartel that should be broken up by the government.

Mark: Earlier this month Preller said SD’s farm system had bottom 5 talent when he arrived and now has top five talent. Do you agree with the first part of that comment?
Klaw: They had Ross and Turner there when he arrived, among others he traded, so no, I don’t.

Bruce: Most people hit right-handed. Why is being a lefty pitcher so coveted?
Klaw: Because left-handed hitters are more likely to have extreme platoon splits.

Chris: Long time reader, first time questioner. Seems like it’s been a positive year on farm for Padres in many areas but not at SS. Granted I’m mostly “boxscore scouting” but looks like a lost year for Guerra….Giron and Rondon just mediocre. Wondering what you think about Luis Urias. Is he a possible avg MLB regular in the future and, if so, can he play short?
Klaw: Urias is a solid prospect, probably not a star, outstanding feel to hit and general baseball instincts. Giron was overrated off the hot start last year. Guerra did indeed have a lost year and I’ve heard some of that is makeup-related.

Henry: Keith, outstanding post today on the Arizona front office. Do you ever get concerned about the backlash you might get from teams when you draft such things? Nevertheless, I’m really glad you’re speaking out vs organizational ineptitude as it hurts the game and your recent post on domestic violence was very much needed.
Klaw: I’m cognizant of how what I write might be received in front offices, but my job is my job – I can’t not do it out of fear that people will be mad at me. I have spiked some ideas or held back some things over the years to maintain relationships or to stick to my own standard of journalistic ethics (and I’ve made some serious mistakes on that front too), but I think I’ve found a balance I can work with.

Speedtrap: There is so much unwarranted emphasis on pitch velocities during a major league broadcast that with some broadcasts it’s almost the dominate topic. Scouts bring their own guns apparently. In your experience what it the difference between the stadiums guns and the readings a scout is getting?
Klaw: Depends on the stadium. Also I think your point about velocities is broader than just broadcasters getting hung up on it. If you’re 14, and you hear all this raving over this guy throwing 101 and that guy throwing 98, what are you trying to develop most as a pitcher? Hint – it ain’t command.

Kelly: You’ve been skeptical about Luis Severino’s ability to start long-term, but you also tend to advocate letting a player start until it’s clear they no longer can. Given the lack of upper-level Yankees pitching prospects, would you let Severino try starting again next year? Or should they just leave him in the bullpen as a potential multi-inning relief ace?
Klaw: My guess is they will try starting him again, but I would probably shift him to the bullpen for a full season, and if he does well there and wants to start, consider transitioning him back to the rotation in 2018. This way he gets a season of success and adjusting to major-league hitters under his belt.

Jonas: What are your go to quick meals when you have a busy week and limited cooking time?
Klaw: It’s summer, so our vegetable each night is usually a salad – no cooking, just prep, make dressing once or twice a week and use it several nights. Our tomato plants are going bonkers, too, so we’ve been doing tomato salads with basil a few times each week. Then the main dish is often a quick-cooking protein, something I can grill or that I can cook quickly in a skillet, often with a basic rice dish on the side because it cooks in 15 minutes without much work. My sister-in-law is Indian and showed me how she makes basmati rice – soak five minutes, toast spices in butter, toast the drained rice for a minute, add broth/stock (2:1 ratio), cook 15 minutes.

Tom: What are your thoughts, if any, on Derrick Hall? Do you think he should go to? It seems, after two failed two failed general managers, he bears a lot of the responsibility for where the team is now, especially since he could have kept Jerry DiPoto and avoided all of this.
Klaw: I think Ken Kendrick has made those decisions, not Hall.

Tim: Yadier Alvarez going to be a top 100 guy for you? I know Longenhagen says he has him valued at 60 FV. Thoughts on his performance in his debut year?
Klaw: I have not seen him, but Eric’s seen him a few times and we’ve discussed him quite a bit, in addition to what I’ve heard from others, all of which makes him a top 100 guy. Huge arm, good athlete, and he’s throwing strikes.

Barry: Do you like UA and PG separating their games so that the best players can participate in both showcases, or would you rather have them closer together so that more kids get the exposure?
Klaw: I like this better. No more competition for the players. They’ll still get some differences on the rosters due to geography, and in recent years one or both games have suffered when they’ve been on the same weekend, like the 2015 UA game when almost no one could throw strikes.

Joe: Manny Machado still in the MVP discussion?
Klaw: I don’t think so; he’s about 60-65 points of OBP behind Trout/Altuve, with similar power production, so to make him a viable candidate you’d have to argue his defense is Andrelton Simmons-level. I don’t think it is. Top 5 candidate but not top 3. I think the AL MVP race is Trout/Altuve/Donaldson, then Betts/Machado. But I think it will end up Altuve/Betts, Donaldson/Trout/Machado.

Wes: What exactly is a “hitch” in reference to a player’s swing?
Klaw: A big move (with the hands) down, back, or down and back from the load position – that is, not the way the bat needs to go to get to the ball.

Kevin: What are your thoughts on Newcomb’s improvement?
Klaw: Improvement?

Lev: As a GM, how do you properly value an injury prone superstar like Stanton? He’s clearly capable of hitting 50, but will he ever have a season with enough at bats to reach those levels?
Klaw: I think the problem for Stanton is that he can’t stay healthy enough to ‘earn’ the salary he’s guaranteed. The Marlins may end up in a spot where they’re trying to move that contract and can’t. You can hope you get that full season of production, but if you’re running a projection how could you assume it?

Bill: Am I wrong in my thinking that a prospects hit tool is the most important tool by a wide margin? Are prospects that don’t have a lot of exciting tools but can just flat out hit underrated by the industry?
Klaw: It’s the hardest one to evaluate, and it’s incredibly important – if you hit, we forgive lots of other sins, and if you can’t hit, you’d better have something like a 70 glove.

Alex: Do you believe Alex Reyes will be able to develop into a frontline starter?
Klaw: Can, yes. Will, not sure. Stuff is there. Apparently a bright kid and good worker. Delivery needs some tweaking, which I think would help him stay healthy and add power to the breaking ball.

Jordan: Could you see the Yankees starting the 2017 season with 4 starting rookies? (Greg Bird, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin)
Klaw: Bird’s not a rookie and Sanchez won’t be by then either. I could see all four starting the season with the big club, though.

Brad: Keith, we hear a lot about Greene, Faedo, Wright and others as potential 1-1 candidates. Where are the potential 1-1 bats?
Klaw: Jeren Kendall is the best of the group. Jordan Adell is pretty exciting but I think might be too raw for 1-1 right now.

Joe: Does Jordan Montgomery have enough fastball to be a starter?
Klaw: I don’t think so.

Michael: I like that you do it, but can it ever be awkward running into people you criticize? What happened if you saw Dave Stewart or Terry Collins at the Winter Meetings and they said something to you, even something innocent?
Klaw: I would be friendly and open. If such a person wanted to have a real discussion about what I wrote, I think I have an obligation to do it (and I would). If someone wanted to come yell or swear at me, I don’t think I have an obligation to take that.

Jeb: No love for Manowar : )
Klaw: Never could get into them. Power metal kind of left me cold.

Robby: Looks like everyone agrees Luke Weaver’s drop and dive delivery won’t allow him to have an average breaking ball. Can you get by as a #3 or #4 with a fastball, changeup, and cutter?
Klaw: Think he’s a 5th starter or long reliever. Definitely a major leaguer with value, so that’s not some code for writing him off. Just can’t see him having that breaking ball he needs.

JP: Aaron Judge or David Dahl?
Klaw: Dahl ends up the more valuable player thanks to position/defense. Judge does more with the bat, if you’re asking a fantasy question.

MeisterNJ: With so many companies claiming they use ‘all natural this’, ‘wild caught that’, ‘small batch’, somebody has to be lying right? Any way to verify these things short of going undercover?
Klaw: Nope, it’s basically on regulators, who don’t have the time/budget to investigate them all, or independent organizations like journalists or consumer-rights groups.

Davey: You mocked energy drinks on Twitter a little while back. What’s the criticism? Overreliance on placebo effect? Caffeine not as effective as people say? Does your criticism hold even for sugar-free ones?
Klaw: They don’t do what they claim to do, are loaded with ‘nutrients’ that don’t help, and taste like shit.

Marty: Matt Manning is striking a ton of guys out, but also getting hit pretty hard, especially when the lineup turns over against him. Do you think his secondary stuff develops enough for him to start in the big leagues, or do you see him more as an eventual reliever?
Klaw: See him as a future starter – grade 70 or 80 athlete, limited pitching experience, golden arm. Not surprised at all that he’s struggling to turn a lineup over since he was fastball-spike CB in high school.

Alex: What do you see in a player that makes you think that player will be able to make adjustments in the future? You seem optimistic on Soler. Randall Grichuk could also be a great player if he could learn to make adjustments and hit stuff soft away. My question is what do you see in a swing that sways you one way or the other?
Klaw: Athleticism. Looseness/flexibility. Some selectivity – if you show me now you can sort of recognize a breaking ball, or a pitch that’s inside, then I’m more inclined to think you can improve that recognition (Joey Gallo, for example) than to take a guy with no clue and believe he can make that adjustment. Grichuk has never recognized breaking stuff, going back to HS, which is why I’ve never really projected him to figure that out.

JC: It could even be ignorant to ask, but is Dave Stewart’s….sub-par tenure as GM going to be detrimental to future minority front office candidates? Or will teams know well enough that pushing for more diversity shouldn’t backpedal at all due to one man’s failure?
Klaw: I certainly hope not. I think it’s reflective of a Chief Baseball Officer hiring his buddies, and of the flaw in hiring someone who hasn’t been involved in the game for 13 years.

Fritz: Any hope for DJ Stewart or is he another bad Baltimore first round pick like Hobgood?
Klaw: I was not a fan of his in college but in no way did I expect him to fail to hit for any power like he has this year. I didn’t like the body or athleticism and thought he was a slow-bat DH type but would run into 20 bombs.

Steven.: AJ Minter 2017 NL Roy?
Klaw: As a middle reliever? No.

Darren: Thoughts on the jays firing their scouting director? He had done a good job getting the jays the prospects they needed to make all those trades last year.
Klaw: If this was just “we want our own guy,” fine, that’s how the business works. Parker had had a few good drafts until this past one, where I assume the new regime changed his mandate. I also thought firing Blake Davis, one of their cross-checkers, was totally bizarre – that should be the decision of the new scouting director. I don’t see why the GM or President would have any reason to fire someone below the scouting director.

Cara: If a stud HS hitter is facing relatively weak competition, how do you get a true sense of their abilities?
Klaw: You’re looking at his swing, his body, his athleticism, his BP, and hope that you’ve seen him the previous summer with a wood bat against better competition.

James: I can preorder your book and get it on April 25, 2017? I also find it interesting that the book will be 304 pages. Just giving you crap, love you man. And yes, I will be preordering the book.
Klaw: I also find it interesting that the book will be 304 pages. But yes, it’s due out in April.

Ian: Wait, is that Amazon link you provided legit? That title is spectacular and I’m pre-ordering on the spot if that’s the actual Amazon page….
Klaw: Yes, it’s legit, and I believe that’s the final title.

Jason: Trent Clark or Kyle Tucker, if you could only have one who would it be?
Klaw: Clark. Better pure hitter.

Kelly: Do you see Tyler Austin as a potential regular, or is he more likely a very good bench player? Either way, I’m very happy that he’s healthy enough to get a chance after a few rough years.
Klaw: I’m willing to buy Austin as a starter.

JP: Do you think Kopech could be an effective reliever for the Red Sox in September?
Klaw: I brought this up somewhere yesterday – podcast? – but I think it’s a stretch. He’s killing guys with one pitch, and yes it’s an 80 fastball, but big league hitters will get to that.

Chris: What is your favorite way to cook/grill Salmon?
Klaw: Pan-seared, cooked right to medium, with a beurre blanc.

Tim: Thank you for being so high so early on Mookie Betts. I picked him up in a fantasy keeper league just prior to his promotion in 2014. In a related story, my team is killing in this season.
Klaw: You’re welcome but I was way too light on him, in hindsight.

Nic AZ: With a little pro data on Cal Quantril, what kind of ceiling/floor do you see for him?
Klaw: All I’ve heard on him from scouts so far is positive. He could turn out to be 1-1 good now that he’s healthy.

DP: Keith, you were okay with the Cubs signing Heyward to the big contract this past offseason. He is the type of player I worry advance metrics tend to overvalue. Thoughts??
Klaw: I was, but I never thought he’d evaporate at the plate like this. I thought he was a great defender who could hit but put the ball on the ground too often.

Alex: So, is Moancada the third baseman of the future for the Red Sox? That seems to be the only position currently in flux for them. Can he handle the gig defensively? I assume he’d need a full season as a minor league third baseman to get ready.
Klaw: I think he might end up in the OF. Athletic enough to play anywhere (CF?) but actions at 2b aren’t really right for the infield. Not ruling any position other than SS out, though. Also he could probably moonlight as a tailback for the Patriots.

Frank: The Giants said publicly that one of the reasons they felt they could trade Matt Duffy was because Christian Arroyo is the going to ready shortly to take over 3rd base. How would you compare Arroyo to Duffy and how soon do you think he will be ready? Thanks.
Klaw: Although I liked the trade for Moore I don’t think Arroyo is that close, not with the bat at least, and I don’t think he has the arm for third base.

Nan: I often think about your controversial 2009 NL CY Young vote and appreciate you stuck to your guns using real analysis. In a similar vein, using advanced stats like FIP, how do your views on Cole Hamels’s season compare to the mainstream media
Klaw: His ERA is great, his FIP is over a full run higher … but the main reason is because he’s been so much more effective with men in scoring position. He’s been slightly better from the stretch than the windup, a small enough difference to dismiss it as noise. But is pitching better from the stretch, or with men on base, a specific skill? For a hitter, it’s absolutely not. But Kluber has been worse with RISP this year than with the bases empty, while Hamels has limited hitters to .206/.281/.310 with RISP. I do not know the answer to this – how much we should factor that in, when FIP doesn’t consider it at all.

Bryan (Montclair, NJ): Any recommendations for a daily coffee maker? My Cuisinart grind and brew machine just kicked this week.
Klaw: I use a V60 ceramic pour-over … uh, thing by Hario. Takes about 5 minutes total to make a cup, including grinding etc. Much prefer that to machine drip.

Jason: Is Scivicque just a guy, a backup catcher, or a starting catcher (even if a lower-tier one)?
Klaw: Backup catcher. For Aybar, you couldn’t expect anything better.

Jordan: Can you please make a scouting trip to Vanderbilt to see Jeren Kendall and Kyle Wright next season? (But mostly so me and a couple of buds an meet you)
Klaw: Oh, I’ll be there. You think I ever turn down a chance to go to Nashville? I might retire there.

Kenny: What are your thoughts on Seattle not playing games during instructional league and instead using the time to work on specific player skills, or to institute their organizational philosophies?
Klaw: I applaud the novel line of thinking. Instructs can be useful, but they’re hardly the only way to do things. I remember seeing Luiz Gohara in an instructs game in 2012, for one inning, on a 100 degree day, and thinking if I stayed any longer I might die. I doubt the players were any happier to be there than I was. (Gohara’s a GUY, by the way.)

Evan: In your opinion, what is the most likely explanation to the Fermi Paradox?
Klaw: The weight of the fuel.

Drake: Oldest a prospect has ever been drafted in the 1st round?
Klaw: Jeremy Guthrie was 23, I think. James Ramsey of FSU was at least 22.

Aaron Houston: KLAW, can you provide link to Diamondback story?
Klaw: Yes, here it is.

Jay: Are Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez future starters for Toronto, or solid backups?
Klaw: I think McGuire’s a backup and Ramirez might sneak into average regular LF.

Casey: Think the Blue Jays will hire someone from the Indians as their new Scouting Director?
Klaw: I had two guesses: Chuck Ricci, Rays cross-checker, who used to work for Cleveland in the same role; and Marc Tramuta, Mets cross-checker, former Jays area scout and regional cross-checker.

Chris A: When do you think you’ll get to see Kevin Maitan in person?
Klaw: Probably in the spring, assuming we do TV in Florida that pulls me down there in late March. He’ll be a priority guy.

Brian: Honest question: do you think your book will be worthwhile for someone (say, myself) who already thinks pitcher wins are for losers, batting average is for suckers, and saves don’t mean shit?
Klaw: Fair question. I certainly hope so, because I’m trying to make the book entertaining enough that you’ll enjoy it even if you agree with what I’m saying, and maybe I’ll have some new arguments or anecdotes that will make it worthwhile. That’s been an issue for me as I write it – balancing the need to make this accessible to everybody and the desire to write a book that my regular readers would still enjoy.

Braden: What’s your favorite song to play on your guitar?
Klaw: It changes. Seasons in the Abyss is one of my favorites.

Gerry: Dom Smith is hitting a robust .351/.418/.580 over his last 196 pa’s with just a 12.8% k rate – safe to say he’s finally becoming the prospect you always thought he would be?
Klaw: Yes, I think this is closer to what he is, although I’d like to see him do that over a full season.

Tim: Should Rookie of the Year factor in future potential? Or should it just go to “rookie who had the best season.” Looking back it’s pretty comical that Chris Coghlan won ROY over Andrew McCutchen, for instance.
Klaw: I’ve argued for the former, which means things like considering age – a 21-year-old and a 25-year-old having the same season are not equivalent.

Aaron: In one of your last boardgame ranking posts on the dish, you mentioned you had Village but needed to play it more. Have you played it more? Write-up in the works, or any general feelings? Thanks
Klaw: Nope, haven’t played it at all. I own at least ten games I’ve never played, because I get new games to review all the time. I think Paste has three reviews from me that haven’t run yet and I’ll file another, for Saloon Tycoon, in the next day or two.

Klaw: That’s all for this week’s chat – thank you all, as always, for all of the questions. I’ll be back at some point next week, maybe Friday, to chat again.