Uncategorized — Page 137

→ May 27, 2017
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 5/27/17.

My one Insider piece this week was on Luis Robert, his deal with the White Sox, and the poor history of Cuban position player free agents. I did not hold a Klawchat, and will have another mock draft up on Tuesday.

Smart Baseball continues to sell well and I am very grateful to all of you who purchased it. I have about 100 signed bookplates that I can send out to readers who’ve bought the book, and I’ll get that info to everyone soon – probably in my next email newsletter.

And now, the links…

Longread: Pro Publica exposes abusive working conditions at Case Farms, the chicken purveyor that provides meat to many major brands including KFC, Taco Bell, Popeye’s, and Boar’s Head. Skip those brands if you’re horrified by what you read here.
Another longread: The Guardian looks at the great London property squeeze, as affordable housing disappears from the metropolis. The same is happening in some American cities – New York and San Francisco come to mind – where many people who work in the city can’t afford to live in or even close to the city. I’m talking about people you expect to be there, like teachers, first responders, even the ‘invisible’ workers in restaurant kitchens and late-night cleaning crews. They need and deserve a place to live.
Make Michigan sick again! A Republican lawmaker there claims rules to let parents opt out of vaccination mandates hurt ‘parental rights,’ oblivious to the irony that it hurts the rights of those parents’ kids to avoid preventable diseases. All religious and philosophical exemptions for vaccinations should be eliminated, period. The science on this is as unequivocal as it gets.
The Washington Post‘s Dave Weigel explains how the Seth Rich conspiracy hoax shows how fake news still works, which was followed two days later by a piece from Rich’s parents asking these nutjobs to stop politicizing their son’s murder. Fox News blowhard Sean Hannequin has taken a “vacation” in the wake of his own reprehensible role in promulgating this insanity. If you want to see how incredibly stupid, gullible, and obstinate otherwise normal-seeming people can be, search Rich’s name on Twitter. But really, don’t do that.
The last 50 years of climate change have brought exceptional plant growth to Antarctica.
Actress-turned-loon Gwyneth Paltrow said recently that anyone who wants to “fuck with” her needs to “bring (their) A-game,” to which one scientist responds, we’re not fucking with you, we’re correcting you.
The NY Times looks at Twitter co-founder Evan Williams’ (@ev) quixotic quest to ‘fix’ the Internet by developing a new model for selling content. I don’t think it’s going to work.
A South African hunter was crushed to death by an elephant after it is fatally shot. I have just one question: Why the hell are we still shooting elephants?
A sociology professor from Occidental College (not the deliberate one) writes in TIME that all universities should ban fraternities. I think she gets half the argument right; what she misses is how such social ‘clubs’ can also serve to undermine institutional efforts to fight discrimination and allow wealthy kids to isolate themselves from less privileged classmates – and thus to reinforce the old boys’ network that came about when universities were limited to families who could afford the tuition up front. (That’s the main purpose of “finals clubs,” Harvard’s unofficial, not-exactly-banned alternatives to fraternities, which are under attack and yet have been defended by unlikely voices. I was not a member of any finals club.)
Gunning for Snowflake of the Year honors, Alabama’s Governor Kay Ivey (a Republican) signed a bill preventing local governments from removing Confederate monuments. Remember, this is the same GOP that preaches decentralizing power from the federal government to the states. It’s almost as if the Republican party’s core platform is based on self-interest rather than actual principle.
Not to be outdone, Ayatollah Greg Abbott of Texas joked about shooting reporters just two days after now Representative-elect Greg Gianforte physically assaulted a reporter who asked him about Trumpcare.
The City of Commerce, Texas, is under attack after its police chief illegally let his 14-year-old drive, then accosted and arrested a black woman for driving around them, calling her a “black bitch.” The City has denied the woman’s claim that Crews called her that term, but has offered no explanation for why she was forced to spend a night in jail; she claims it was because she refused to apologize to whoever called her that slur.
A Baltimore attorney was arrested this week for offering a rape victim $3000 to decline to testify, then threatening to deport her.
Morrissey (as in the Smiths) has outed himself as a bigot, especially when it comes to Islam.
An African-American student at Bowie State University was killed by a white University of Maryland student in what authorities are bizarrely not calling a hate crime even though the suspect was a member of a Facebook group that called itself “alt-Reich.”
Meanwhile, the man accused of killing two people on a Portland, Oregon, train is a well-known white supremacist in that area. The victims had tried to intervene when the killer was harassing two Muslim women on the vehicle.
Is the key to fighting superbugs ending our war on less harmful bacteria? In other words, does every bacterial infection need antibiotics? The more we dose ourselves (and our pets and our livestock) with such drugs, the faster we end up with bacteria our drugs can’t kill because we create a process of unnatural selection.
Our President is now actively hurting the U.S. dollar. Add to the list of things I thought Republicans would care about, but that they’re ignoring because it’s inconvenient.
More from Pro Publica: Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, is a landlord from hell.
Charles Blow wrote las week for the New York Times that there was blood in the water around this Presidency … and in five days it has already been lapped by new disclosures of the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia.
Could economic stratification and ecological strain lead to the collapse of western civilization? Of course, the United States is doing its best to find an even faster and more efficient way to achieve the same end.
A physician wrote about the potential disaster of the Administration’s anti-abortion views and proposed policies, which she says “are not grounded in reliable evidence.” The money quote, not just on reproductive rights but this entire Administration: “These appointments are a stunning example of what happens when willful ignorance gains a powerful platform.”

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: anti-science, chicken, climate change, environment, food safety, harvard, hoaxes, links, stick to baseball, vaccines

→ May 24, 2017
→ By keith

Dragon’s Teeth.

Upton Sinclair is best remembered today for two of his early novels, the expose The Jungle and the novel Oil!, the latter of which was the basis for the movie There Will Be Blood. (Little-known fact: when Sinclair was on his deathbed, he had a clause put in his will that the movie version had to star Daniel Day-Lewis, who was just 11 years old at the time.) Sinclair later penned a series of eleven novels starring the charismatic socialist Lanny Budd, and the third one, Dragon’s Teeth, won the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction in 1943. It was out of print for years before the entire Budd series reappeared last year in ebook form, which is how I picked up Dragon’s Teeth (on sale one day for $2).

The novel is very much a product of its time, a blend of wartime patriotism and unrealistic action, with Lanny almost too good to be real and yet surrounded by many flawed characters, including his shallow socialite wife. (There isn’t a female character worth a damn in the book.) The story is the real driver here, as Budd, who’s living abroad in Europe for most of the novel, becomes an early prophet of doom as Hitler begins his rise to power in the late 1920s, even as those around him continue to try to do business with the German government or claim that the worst won’t come to pass. The novel’s second half becomes more action-oriented, where Budd has to rescue two Jewish friends, first a father then the son, from imprisonment by the Nazis, where Sinclair also provides a window into what’s really happening in Nazi Germany – perhaps a bit late by the time it was published, but certainly a reaction to the belief by some Americans that stories of Nazi atrocities were exaggerated or false.

There’s a lot more story than I just gave you – in 600+ pages, there had better be – but much of it is window dressing, or weak criticism. Sinclair appeared to have little or no use for the idle rich, and his depictions of their total indifference to the suffering of the poor and of the Jews in Germany are hard to take – although I concede they may have been very real. (We’re certainly seeing lots of indifference to the poor in our country today.) Sinclair ratchets up the tempo by raising the stakes – there’s really no reason to believe either or both of the Jews Lanny is trying to rescue will be found alive, or come out of the camps intact. But he doesn’t give a ton of depth to most of his characters; it’s a serious novel, but breezes along in parts like a comedy of manners.

What did surprise me, however, was Sinclair’s treatment of the two Jews at the heart of the story. American authors prior to 1950 or so tended to depict Jewish characters using hackneyed stereotypes, if they depicted them at all. Sinclair has Lanny related to the family by marriage, which I imagine would have been scandalous in polite society of the time, and his desire to rescue his friends/relatives is both philosophical and personal. The father Johannas is a businessman, but the Germans are the ones obsessed with money here – the price of freedom in both cases is money, everything Johannas has in the first case, then another exorbitant sum to free his son.

Throughout the Lanny Budd series, Sinclair puts the protagonist into major world events, here having Lanny meet with Hermann Göring and Adolf Hitler multiple times, putting Lanny right in the middle of The Night of Long Knives, and sending Johannas’ son (and thus Lanny) to Dachau. Other real-world events appear via news reports so that Lanny can react to them (or expound his socialist views) and scold the Pollyannas who take Hitler at his word or try to continue to do business with Germany after the Nazis took over. In the moment, it probably felt like an important book that captured a time that was eight years in the past but also relevant to ongoing current events. Today, though, it seems heavy and dated, saved by brisk writing and plenty of action in the book’s second half, but not enough to make it stand up like Sinclair’s better-known works.

Next up: I’ve been reading Connie Willis’ Blackout/All Clear diptych, winner of the Hugo and Nebula Awards for best novel, and have about 350 pages to go in the second book.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: american literature, historical novels, pulitzer prize, world war ii

→ May 24, 2017
→ By keith

Lion.

Lion (now out on amazon and iTunes) was the last of the 2016 Best Picture nominees I needed to see (I’ve said before I’m skipping the anti-Semite’s film) and just never got around to it while it was in theaters because I saw a bunch of other movies I thought would be more interesting and then hit draft season. It turns out that I’d shortchanged the movie, which is based on a true story, largely because the commercials and trailer made it look like a much more sentimental, cloying film than it actually was. It’s still driven more by great performances – Dev Patel and Nicole Kidman both earned well-deserved Oscar nominations – than by a great script, but Lion still delivers a compelling story without resorting to too much claptrap.

The movie follows Saroo from age four to adulthood on a story that would be hard to believe if it wasn’t true. Saroo becomes separated from his brother in a train station in northern India while they’re begging for money, falls asleep on a train, and ends up over a thousand miles away, in Kolkata, where he doesn’t speak the language (Bengali) and can’t help anyone find his family because he mispronounces the name of his village and doesn’t know his mother’s name (he tells a police officer her name is “Mum”). He’s then adopted by an Australian family and seems to assimilate well into the new culture, but as a young adult, is spurred by a handful of fairly minor events and a diverse circle of friends to try to find out where he came from, a quest that relies heavily on Google Earth and eventually gets him back to the village of his birth.

What truly surprised me about Lion was how thoroughly it affected me. I’m used to mainstream films (and TV) trying to manipulate my emotions, and I’m largely immune to it at this point, because I see it coming and often find it hackneyed. Lion certainly cranks up the intensity of some of its emotional payoffs, but they’re grounded in reality, and many of those moments rely on universal sentiments – especially the scene where Saroo returns to the village of his birth for a reunion with his family that comes with a heartbreaking corollary. There’s a bit of that scene that feels very Hollywoodized, where the women of the village come around a corner, almost marching, in a stunning array of colors (thanks to their saris, which can really put Western fashions to shame), to come meet Saroo … but it’s trivial, and it’s over in a flash, after which you get the moment you’ve waited 100 minutes to see.

That’s not to excuse the numerous tweaks to the true story that did detract from the film’s impact. Saroo has another (biological) sibling who’s simply erased from the film. The beautiful woman who seems to be trying to kidnap or sell the young Saroo was a man in reality. And Saroo’s girlfriend is a total cipher of a character – I forgot her name (Lucy) because the character was so utterly bereft of any defining qualities, and is played by Rooney Mara, who has always struck me as a fairly bland actress, which compounds the problem. Lucy is a plot device, not a character, and it’s hard to understand why Saroo, depicted here as a sensitive adult who starts to lash out at loved ones because he’s struggling with his identity, would be attracted to her in the first place.

The critical consensus around Lion seemed to be that it was a good film kept from being great by slow pacing, especially in the second half, where Saroo distances himself from family and friends while immersing himself in the needle-in-a-haystack quest on Google Earth to find his village. I actually appreciated the reduced pace, in part because so much is thrown at the viewer in the first 45 minutes, but also because … that’s how it would have been, right? This had to have taken hundreds of hours over a period of weeks or months, with lots of dead ends and a sense of futility. It’s the one big element in this film that felt anti-commercial, and I think it ended up a strength rather than a weakness.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2016 best picture nominees, 2016 movies, movies

→ May 21, 2017
→ By keith

Los Angeles eats, 2017 edition.

This isn’t ideal, writing up food from a trip I finished two weeks ago, but given everything that happened between the end of that trip and today, it’s the best I can offer. Fortunately I ate some memorable stuff.

The best meal I ate was at P.Y.T., a new ‘vegetable-forward’ restaurant right in downtown Los Angeles, not entirely vegetarian but mostly so, with only two real meat-centric dishes and plenty of options that were vegetarian or even vegan. I am not a vegetarian, as regular readers know, but I have curtailed a lot of my consumption of red meat for health reasons (because I don’t metabolize the amino acid leucine properly and because my cholesterol is the highest it’s ever been) and I actively seek out vegetables when eating on the road. I ate a completely vegetarian meal at P.Y.T. and was totally satisfied and still full afterwards, because the dishes managed to be decadent without being heavy.

I had three plates at P.Y.T., which does mostly smaller plates but without going to tiny portions. The baby beets salad with mandarin segments, arugula, pumpkin seeds, and coconut labneh (like Greek yogurt, but Lebanese) was light and offered an unusual combination of flavors that worked well even if I didn’t get everything into each bite; the citrus + beets combo is pretty classic, but the arugula leaves were too mature and kind of tough. I’ll definitely try to replicate that coconut labneh at home at some point. The hand-torn pasta with green garlic cream, shishito peppers, cilantro, and mint was the most unique pasta dish I’ve ever tried, very green (obviously) but bringing together flavors I’ve never had with pasta; it was intermittently spicy, and I suspect there may have been a little jalapeno in there, and it was properly sauced (not drowning in it, not dry). If there was heavy cream in the dish, it was scant, which is a positive – too much and suddenly you’re at Olive Garden (and not even family). The dessert was a peanut butter mousse by another name, with chocolate wafers crumbled on top of alternating layers of whipped cream and the mousse. If that had had just one little layer of dark chocolate it would have been an 80.

I went to Son of a Gun for lunch, and tweeted the picture of their enormous fried chicken sandwich, which I split with a friend. It’s right up there with the Crack Shack (San Diego/Encinitas) and nocawich (Tempe) for fried chicken sandwiches, and it might have had the crispiest shell around the meat of any I’ve ever had. We also got the lobster rolls, which are basically two bites big, and the garlic fries, of which I ate way too much, and I seem to remember a salad of apples and cheese that I thought was just fair. The chicken sandwich, though … I still think it’s a two people per sandwich choice, but it’s double-plus.

The Son of a Gun team – owners of Animal and Jon & Vinny’s – co-own Petit Trois, an offshoot of their fine-dining place Trois Mec, but this one is run by chef Ludo Lefebvre, who was actually in the restaurant in his chef’s whites the night I ate there. It’s lighter fare, still Parisian French but more like French bar food than classic French gastronomy. The best item I had was their English pea tartine, which had English peas over honeyed chevre spread on a thick, grilled slice of crusty bread. The peas just made the dish, of course, since they were at peak sweetness. I also had butter-poached shrimp served in avocado, which was fine but probably fussier than it needed to be; and the “beignet,” which I would just call a donut but what do I know.

Both Petit Trois and Sqirl showed up on Eater’s list of the best 38 restaurants in America for 2017 – I’ve been to ten, plus Publican’s offshoot PQM – and while I totally get Petit Trois’ place, Sqirl … I think it’s more about a novel concept than anything else. It’s a breakfast and lunch spot with mostly non-traditional fare, including their specialty rice bowls, with sorrel pesto, sliced radishes, feta cheese, and a poached egg, with the option to add other meats. It’s filling, certainly, although I find rice for breakfast, a staple for maybe half the world’s population, a jolt to my palate. I thought the food was good, but nothing spectacular; the rice/pesto mix is made in huge batches anyway, and there was nothing I ate that I couldn’t easily replicate at home. They used good inputs, but what came after was just fair. The place is Full Hipster, if that sort of thing matters to you.

I also went back to Square One for breakfast a different day; it’s one of my absolute favorite breakfast spots in the country, and there’s bonus value in watching the zombies walk around the Scientology complex across the street. I always get the same thing – the house-cured salmon benedict, which is served over a hash brown pancake of sorts rather than bread. I don’t even look at the menu any more. And it’s a lot more chill than Sqirl.

In San Diego I just went with my standbys, The Crack Shack (where a reader of mine works, and we discovered later that he’d made the matzoh ball posole I ate for lunch) and Juniper & Ivy (menu always changing, and everything so good). I don’t mess with perfection.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: breakfast, fried chicken, los angeles, socal, vegetables, vegetarian

→ May 20, 2017
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 5/20/17.

My one baseball post this past week was the annual ranking of the Top 25 MLB players under 25, which causes more “read the intro” violations than anything else I write every year. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday while in Minneapolis; I will do a quick eats post from there soon, but I’m about six topics behind here due to travel and lack of sleep.

For Paste, I reviewed the new puzzle game Shahrazad, which has a solo version and a two-player mode, both pretty clever with fantastic artwork and very few rules to learn.

My book, Smart Baseball, came out on April 25th from HarperCollins in hardcover, ebook, and audiobook formats. I traveled to Atlanta and the Twin Cities for readings/signings this past week, and am very grateful to all of you who came out to buy the book, have yours signed, or just say hello; we had 50+ folks at each event and Moon Palace Books sold out of the book Thursday night. Smart Baseball also got a very positive review from an unexpected source, the political site The Federalist.

I’m still sending out my email newsletter when I can, and the last edition, about some recent troubles I’ve had with my anxiety disorder and the medication I take for it, got the strongest response yet – so many replies and comments, in fact, that I haven’t been able to respond to the majority of them. I did see them all, though, and I really appreciate all the kind words.

And now, the links…

I’ll start with a baseball article. Russell Carleton, whom I had the pleasure of meeting in Georgia on Tuesday night, wrote for Baseball Prospectus about why the increase in home runs doesn’t mean the ball is juiced. OK, but you’ll never convince me 1987 was legit.
How a paper purporting to prove ESP is real shows scientific research has a methodology problem. The credibility of much published research, especially in social sciences, is at stake.
If you live in Florida, Indiana, Alabama, or any state considering a so-called “academic freedom” bill, those are just backdoor creationism bills that would allow teachers the “freedom” to teach bullshit in science classes. Make yourself heard: these laws are wrong, damaging, and possibly unconstitutional.
Read about voters actually disenfranchised by voter ID laws in Wisconsin, along with quotes from sleazy politicians who blithely promised no registered voters would be denied their legal right to vote.
You probably saw The Atlantic article, published posthumously, called My Family’s Slave. You can put me in the camp of people who found the author’s tone and words troubling, and I recommend this Twitter thread for some well-articulated thoughts on the article’s many problems. Here’s my biggest one: Why didn’t he go to the police once he realized his parents were keeping Lola in involuntary servitude?
A new study shows that NSAIDs, including Advil (ibuprofen) and Aleve (naproxen), are correlated with a small but significant increase in heart attack risk, even with just moderate use.
You may have seen me refer to the Dunning-Kruger effect, especially when I’m talking to vaccine denialists on Twitter, saying that they suffer from this “illness.” Here’s a good lay piece on the phenomenon, which refers to people overestimating their knowledge or abilities under certain circumstances.
This USA Today profile of Chris Cornell, who took his own life this last week, was the best I found on the singer/songwriter.
A reader of mine sent along this post from a family member, a woman who was sexually assaulted at Case Western Reserve and who discovered that the university chose to settle a suit by her rapist that may allow him to return to campus.
Professor Lawrence Tribe of Harvard Law School wrote that Trump must be impeached … and that was May 13th, a full week ago, before the laundry list of revelations about his obstruction of investigations into his campaign’s ties to Russia.
Two days later, the Washington Post revealed that the President had revealed classified intelligence to Russian emissaries, which kicked off a cavalcade of revelations about POTUS and his cronies. The Lawfare blog had the best breakdown of that first story.
House Republicans are targeting programs that help disadvantaged Americans for budget cuts, including food stamps and benefits for veterans. I’d personally enjoy seeing the reaction from veterans’ groups to such a proposal.
A white lawyer in southern California is leading the charge to get people of color adequate representation on city councils. California may be among the most progressive states overall, but there’s a lot of garden-variety racism in local jurisdictions.
The Department of Justice is resorting to authoritarian tactics to get retribution against lawyers who helped fight their ill-conceived, xenophobic Muslim ban in January.
The FDA, a regulatory agency that suffers from serious mission creep, is considering a draft proposal that recommends quackery like acupuncture and chiropractic “medicine,” neither of which has any hard evidence proving efficacy.
Liberals, leftists, and just plain old never-Trumpers need to stop promoting bullshit conspiracy theories found on social media, promulgated by non-journalists and attention-seekers like Louise Mensch.
North Carolina Republicans are proving themselves to be the scum of American politics, between gerrymandering, voter disenfranchisement, a law that effectively legalized discrimination against LGBTQ residents, and now a 3 a.m. maneuver to strip education funding from Democrats’ districts. I used to love North Carolina and we thought several times about relocating there. Not any more.
New Jersey Representative Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-11) outed an activist in his district in a letter to her employer, a move that, while legal, is ethically questionable given his position. The weekly protests at his office saw a boost this week, and the seat is no longer considered safely Republican for 2018.
That last bit sounds great if you’re against Trump & Co., but the Democrats are struggling to win the three special elections coming up to fill House seats, clear opportunities to take advantage of the President’s historic unpopularity.
A NY Times editorial asks is it time to move to Norway?, but the headline doesn’t really do the piece justice.
The Chronicle of Higher Education profiles English Professor Seth Abramson and his crusade against Trump, along with explanation of how he’s promoted his content so aggressively, the mixed nature of his messages, and why Twitter is a poor venue to persuade others.
A research paper by a Harvard Professor of Public Policy found no evidence that Lebron James’ relocations helped the economies of Cleveland or Miami. In Miami, there was no evidence of any economic boost; in Cleveland, there was a statistically significant uptick, but only very close to the arena itself, not to the metro area as a whole (which may be substitution rather than actual economic growth).
Paper book sales are up and ebook sales are down, and The Guardian speculates that increased production quality in physical books is one reason.
The competition to create a vegan burger that looks and feels like meat is increasing with the new entry from Impossible Foods, a startup with nearly $200 million in venture backing. If one of the criticisms of beef is the environmental cost of raising cows, shouldn’t this article consider the cost of producing these fake-meats, which includes “producing vats of it in a lab by mixing genes in soybeans with yeast,” then adding “heme … to wheat and potato proteins with coconut oil.” That’s a lot of processing and probably a lot of energy input.
Here’s Illinois Representative Darin LaHood (R-18) blatantly lying about the Trumpcare bill’s treatment of preexisting conditions in a message to constituents:
This sculpture/art installation in Venice, designed to raise awareness of the dangers of climate change, just makes me think of some giant sea monster coming to kill us all.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: anti-science, baseball, books, environment, health, links, mental illness, science, vegan

→ May 18, 2017
→ By keith

Klawchat 5/18/17.

My annual ranking of the top 25 players under 25 is now up for Insiders.

Also, just your regular reminder to go buy my book Smart Baseball, out now from HarperCollins!

Keith Law: Klawchat, top of the food chain.

Phil: What is your quick, reasoned, non-hyperbolic assessment of Jeter’s career?
Keith Law: Great player, Hall of Famer, not the Second Coming.

Bertil: What should Atlanta do with Swanson?
Keith Law: Play him every day. I assume this was a question about sending him down or something, but that would be pointless and possibly harmful. Just play him every day this year and be patient.

Tim: Castro and Hicks. Mirages or is there something real going on with both that should give the Yankees long term hope? Castro has fooled us all before after all..
Keith Law: I’m a little more bullish on Hicks, since he’s shown flashes of all of this before, just never for long enough to matter – and he’s getting consistent playing time for the first time in a while.

Squire: Are the Phillies connected to anyone else at #8 other than Shane Baz?
Keith Law: Trevor Rogers. Other HS arms, but I’ve also heard that they’re not specifically focused on that category.

Ben: Does Padres AAA reliever Phil Maton have a future in a big league bullpen?
Keith Law: Yes. Very high spin-rate fastball.

Kieth’s Friend: Any tips on cooking an omelette? I bet if you saw mine you would run away
Keith Law: Without knowing what you’re doing, I’ll blindly suggest lowering the heat.

John: Leading up to draft day, Hunter Greene was a consensus 1/2. No win some mocks I’m seeing him slip down to the Padres at 3. Whats the cause of this and what are the odds it actually happens?
Keith Law: Nah, he was never consensus 1 or 2. He’s the consensus number one talent. There was always a chance that he’d go below that, just like Jason Groome was (IMO) the #2 talent last year and went 12th. Well, not just like that, because Groome slid on some makeup concerns, while Greene, if he goes 3, hasn’t exactly “slid” and also would buck history if he goes 1 overall because no HS RHP has ever gone there.

Tim: Any thoughts on the Dodgers thought process with Bellinger? Seems like with Gonzalez out, playing him at 1st would improve the defense pretty significantly over him in left with Utley at first. Have seen several misplayed balls over at 1st by Utley/Van Slyke.
Keith Law: I think they’re temporarily prioritizing contract (AG is signed through next year for too much money) over the best alignment of players (Bellinger at 1b, AG on the bench). If they get everyone healthy and play AG at first and Bellinger in left, then I think you’d have cause for complaint.

Michael: Proper punishment for Pillar?
Keith Law: Five game suspension, roughly.

Justin: What your take on German Marquez?
Keith Law: Two-pitch guy. Can’t see him staying a starter like that. Speaking of which, he’s pitching like a mile away from me at the moment.

Tim: What do you make of TJ Rivera?
Keith Law: Just a bench guy, if that.

Brandon Johnson : Thinking long term, do Alex Verdugo and Willie Calhoun have more value to the Dodgers in LA or as trade bait?
Keith Law: I don’t see where Calhoun ever plays for them because he has no position. Verdugo has a very good chance to be a star or at least an above average regular, so I wouldn’t rush to put him in a deal, but Calhoun has more value in trade than he can ever have for the Dodgers.

Dane: Will Devers be in Boston before Sept callups?
Keith Law: I would have said no shot in March, but now it seems like that might happen.

Michael: Any thoughts on what the issue is with JP Crawford? SSS? Or do you think there is real concern regarding his ability to play against real competition?
Keith Law: I’ve had on and off but very trivial concerns about his effort level in the past, like he was coasting on ability but was so much better than everyone else that it didn’t matter. And I’ve heard he’s not playing hard all the time now, either. So is that it? Or is he actually overmatched? I find the latter hard to believe.

Tommy Wright: Luis Robert – how high will he be in your top 100 and do my Padres have a shot at him?
Keith Law: I don’t know if he’ll be on it at all. Every team has a shot at him unless they’re locked out of the international market for this period.

Ben: Headed to Nashville next weekend…going to Catbird Seat. Any other suggestions?
Keith Law: Husk, City House, Two Ten Jack, 404 Kitchen, Rolf & Daughters, Mas Tacos, the Pharmacy, Pinewood Social.

John: How do you feel about strawberry-rhubarb pie?
Keith Law: Done right, it’s an 80.

ExExpos: Any 2018 draft guys that we should keep an eye on next year? Like Seth Beer? Or way too early?
Keith Law: Beer’s on the list, definitely, but I think it’s worth remembering that no one is truly bearing down on 2018 kids right now. They all look better from a distance; once this year’s draft is over, they’ll get more than a cursory look.

Sean: Is Saunders’ Lincoln in the Bardo on your to be read list? I’m halfway through it and find it a very interesting and quick read.
Keith Law: It’s a maybe. Reviews are great, I liked Saunders’ short stories, not sure how much the subject appeals.

Ralph: Most likely to be used by Cubs in a trade for a SP- Schwarber, Baez, Happ?
Keith Law: I’m sure they’d prefer to use Baez, but teams will start the ask with Eloy and Happ.

Mike: How late do you think you’ll be at Moon Palace Books tonight?
Keith Law: I think the talk is an hour or so (it’s me and two other authors), and then I’ll sign and chat. The event in Atlanta ran about two hours, so I’d bank on that. I don’t know when Moon Palace closes.

Roger: Will there ever come a day where an SP throws 275-300 innings again?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. And I say that with 99% confidence.

Jack: Thoughts on Marcus Wilson slaughtering the Midwest League?
Keith Law: Great to see, and I think it’s fair to say he’s reestablished some value already, but he also played a month there last year so while he’s not truly repeating the level, I’m at least trying not to get too far ahead of myself. I think this is probably a real step forward, but let’s see him carry it longer.

Steve: Vladdy Jr. is turning heads, but Bo Bichette is ripping the ball too. Any chance BB sticks at short in the majors? What’s his offensive ceiling?
Keith Law: Zero chance he sticks at short, but I loved his bat in the draft (and the pick) and I think he’s at least a 55 overall at 2b. Good thing for the Jays, too, since JB Woodman has been a disaster.

Cory: Please tell me the Twins will take Wright #1. And, as a Minnesotan, any chance at all that Sam Carlson falls to their pick at #35? I have my doubts.
Keith Law: Nonzero chance of Carlson falling, just because there are too many HS arms for them all to go in the first round, and then I think Carlson gets an overslot deal in the sandwich. Couldn’t tell you who they will take; I think it’s Wright, McKay, or Greene.

PhillyJake: Why is Alen Hanson still on the Pirates roster?
Keith Law: Because he’s out of options.

Seany: Any Rumblings on who the A’s may be high on for the draft?
Keith Law: Nothing new on that since my last mock.

Joe: What’s your opinion on Mueller being appointed to the special counsel
Keith Law: People who know about these things seem unanimous in their praise of him and the move, I have nothing I could possibly add to that.

Johnny O: What’s the last non-fiction book you read? I know you did a NF top 100 years ago but you haven’t posted a review of a NF book in forever.
Keith Law: I posted a review of The End of Ownership last week, and reviewed the excellent I Contain Multitudes a few weeks before that.

crawdaddy: Do you think Aaron Judge can be the Yankees long-term answer in RF.
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s any question he is.

Jason in Detroit: Keith, Beau Burrows is having a nice season. Too soon to say or is he sort of back on track?
Keith Law: I don’t think he was off track, but the main concern from last year, the lack of a good third pitch to get LHB out, remains (I just checked his platoon splits, and, yep, still a wide gap).

Jack: Who would perform best in MLB right now if Yankees needed another OF, Fowler or Frazier?
Keith Law: I’d call up Fowler over Frazier today.

Justin: Thanks for the chats. Assuming the Pirates continue to be “meh,” or worse, what would be the best path forward? Deal Cole for a trade deadline premium price, and then spend on new pitching in the offseason? stand mostly pat (while dealing… say… Watson)? I don’t feel like they need a full rebuild.
Keith Law: Don’t see them spending on new pitching – free agent pitching has largely gotten out of the reach of the lowest-payroll teams – but trading Watson makes sense for sure, and trading Cole if healthy and likely to get a huge return would be smart for the long term even if painful for 2017.

Tracy: Any Dickens’ recommendations?
Keith Law: I loved The Pickwick Papers, and liked Bleak House although its length may scare some folks off.

Michael: Any concerns about Trea Turner or still a SSS
Keith Law: Nah, he’ll be fine.

Sloth: Does David Peterson sneak into the first round? What’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: I think I had him going 15th or 16th in the mock, and I’ve heard him as high as Miami’s pick at 14. Ceiling is a 3, reasonable ceiling a 4.

Tom: Walker Buehler. 1.4 FIP so far in A+/AA seems good. Any chance we see a peak out of the bullpen this year, or will his innings cap prevent it?
Keith Law: They could manage him in a way that gets him to the majors this year, but they’d have to decide that sooner rather than later.

Jim: What have you heard about Matt Tabor? Potential 2nd rounder?
Keith Law: Up to 95 with bad delivery. Was told not a top 100 guy.

Ben: Thoughts on Sierra after seeing him for a stint with the Cards?
Keith Law: Nothing new. Plus run, plus field, will eventually be above average hitter with below average power. I wouldn’t judge him differently on performance in 30 at bats.

Gregory: With Freddie Freeman now out, and the season about to be lost, should the Braves start the parade of prospects to MLB?
Keith Law: Didn’t they already start that? Guys will come up when they’re ready, but I don’t think you’ll see any elite guys like Fried (or Acuna, if at all) till after the ASB.

Justin: Hearing anything new on the Luis Robert front?
Keith Law: I do not follow that market at all.

Steve: Have you heard anything about Duplantier this season? Couldn’t ask for better results thus far and he’s been healthy. Does he have a chance to be a top 100 guy come the end of the season?
Keith Law: Heard in spring training he looked great and felt completely healthy again; I thought he was the one pick they made last year that could really explode for them this season, because he might have been a first rounder if he had a clean medical and weren’t at Rice. Teams really do discount Rice pitchers given their injury history, as they should. Until Wayne Graham is gone, that should be the draft room norm.

Jim: Tristen Lutz and Jacob Pearson, both top 100 proepects?
Keith Law: Pearson was on my draft top 50, no? Lutz I don’t think so but I haven’t done a full 100 yet.

Wendy: Any interest in being a teams GM?
Keith Law: I’ve never been offered that job, so this is an academic question, but I don’t think I’d take such a drastic change in my work/life balance. I wouldn’t like it, and it would be cruel to do that to my family.

Andy: Enjoying Smart Baseball on Kindle. I’m curious, have all MLB scouting departments fully embraced Sabermetrics or do any still rely on the traditional baseball card statistics and metrics?
Keith Law: Thank you! All 30 MLB teams have full-fledged analytics departments; they vary in how much they integrate that work into other areas.

Matt: In your “just missed” column, you described Zimmer as a possible 20/20 guy. Do you think he has the speed to steal 30+ in the bigs like he has in the minors each year?
Keith Law: Gotta get on base at a decent clip for that, and he has really never hit LHP (aside from a tiny sample this year in AAA), which may mean he’s a platoon guy.

Marco: Is Clarke Thomas a Dodger profile for the first round? They selected Buehler two years ago, I don’t see that so unlikely.
Keith Law: Schmidt? I think that’s very unlikely. Buehler was a way better prospect pre-injury than Schmidt.

Steve: Erick Fedde was moved to the pen. Is he a future starter or reliever to you?
Keith Law: I thought he was maybe 60/40 reliever. Saw him last week, still lacks an average changeup. Great arm, definite big leaguer, maybe he could still fake it enough to start because the fastball and slider both flash plus. But I feel extremely confident he’ll be a good reliever.

Gerard: Favorite Melvins’ recording?
Keith Law: Stoner Witch. Is there another answer?

Zihuatenejo: Any advice on finding time to read? I was a voracious reader in my teens and twenties, but as a busy adult I can’t seem to find the time to settle down with a book anymore.
Keith Law: Two suggestions. One is finding hidden moments where you’re otherwise not doing anything – or screwing around on your phone – like waiting in line at stores or waiting for appointments or riding the bus or subway. I read a ton in those places. The other is choosing to dedicate some time every night to reading, even if it’s just 20 minutes. I find that it’s extremely calming, in addition to the pure pleasure I derive from reading.

Parker: Who surprised you more about their stardom from where they were in the minor leagues. AJ Pollock or Paul Goldschmidt?
Keith Law: Goldschmidt. Pollock was a first rounder. Goldschmidt was a lower round pick whom pro scouts weren’t even that high on – I have notes from when he was in the minors from pro scouts who saw him and called him an “up and down guy” or a “platoon 1b.”

Brian: What’s Christin Stewart’s MLB potential?
Keith Law: Solid average everyday LF with plus power and minus defense.

Jean: Are you still a big fan of Jordan Hicks? He has an underwhelming strikeout per 9 right now for a guy that hits 100 mph. Is he more stuff then results right now because of his age?
Keith Law: Yes, still a big fan. Stuff is there, but he’s not just young but inexperienced.
Keith Law: Also, it’s 35 innings.

Theo: Delvin Perez for Brad Hand who says “no”?
Keith Law: The Cardinals are not giving up last year’s first rounder for a guy who was just waived a few months ago.

Parker: how did Nolan Arenado go from a bad defender to pure amazing?
Keith Law: I’ve never delved into the full story but the hints I’ve gotten over the years are that the kid worked his ass off and the Rockies coaches did an amazing job with his footwork and reads. He was a legit 45 defender (or below) in the AFL, and a year later he’s a Gold Glover.

Elliott: Do you sear your meatballs or drop them in the sauce with a covered lid?
Keith Law: Sear and then braise in the sauce.

Andy: Assuming Sandy finally gets it and lets him play everyday, can Conforto maintain this level of production, or do you expect some natural regression ahead?
Keith Law: I think Conforto is a star. He has a .393 OBP, which I think is entirely sustainable for him, but is on pace for 45 HR with a .638 SLG, which I think is not.

Keith: Will Albert Abreu eventually be moved to pen or can he stick in rotation?
Keith Law: More likely to the pen, but absolutely let him start for now and the near future. He could become a starter.

Chad: A question I wanted to ask you in Atlanta on Tuesday: With the caveat that it’s seven weeks in, most of the Braves top 20 prospects have met or exceeded expectations despite being aggressively promoted. Plus, Demeritte’s and Jackson’s flaws look legitimately improved. Credit to Clark and Bridges’ scouts, player development, luck? All of the above? After Freddie’s injury, my focus is now pretty one-directional.
Keith Law: Also pro scouts, and the front office’s aggressiveness. It has been a tremendous year so far on their farm.
Keith Law: Credit everyone there except Kiley. We know he’s just there for the food.

Danny: Would you deal Tommy Joseph to a contender at the deadline and call up Hoskins? He seems legit, no?
Keith Law: I think Hoskins is legit, but what would a contender do with Joseph?

Jose: Is Josh Ockimey improving his outlook at all? I am hoping he can be a power hitting 1b in the next 3-4 years.
Keith Law: Yes – remember he was on fire till about mid-July last year and then absolutely stunk afterwards. I asked, and was told he wasn’t hurt, but he ran out of steam. So I guess I believe this is real but he has to show he can hit all season, not for half a year.

Seath: Could you see Tyler Jay working the bullpen in the Majors and transition to the rotation eventually (2-3 years)? Or do you think the move is permanent?
Keith Law: I got the sense this was a permanent move but I believed he could develop as a starter and would love to see them keep the door open for him.

John: If the Twins keep this up through the All Star break should they stand pat or flip Dozier and Santana for younger pieces to put around the young core?
Keith Law: I do not believe they’re going to keep this up till the ASB and they’d be remiss in failing to get value for their older players.

Theo: if the MLB players association were the Beatles what would the NFL players association be? My guess would be a tone deaf rabbit trying to play the banjo.
Keith Law: The NFLPA can’t comment because they’re currently fetching Goodell’s dry cleaning.

Marcus: You mention Fried as an elite guy, no concerns over him scuffling a bit so far?
Keith Law: Obviously not.

Ben: What are the cubs doing with Jose Albertos? Is he hurt? Why hasn’t he started in the minors? Still see him with front of the line potential?
Keith Law: They claimed a minor injury last year, and of course he’s got no innings under his belt, so it’s not like he can go out and pitch a full year.

Mark: Jacob Gatewood has already walked more this year at a higher level than all of last year. Is this a legit change or are we still in SSS territory?
Keith Law: He got LASIK, no? The story – not that I could dispute this in any way – is that he can see the ball properly for the first time in years. Works for me.

Jesse: How soon before Rosario is up? With the season lost, might the Mets be better off keeping him at triple-A all season?
Keith Law: How would that make them better off, exactly?

Carter: What to make of Carson Fulmers AAA numbers he doesn’t seem to be missing bats anymore.
Keith Law: I’ve said since he was a college sophomore that he’s a reliever. He can’t command his fastball well enough with that delivery, and he got college hitters out too often on breaking stuff out of the zone.

Kevin: Kyle Funkhouser just got a promotion to high A. Think he has a future of 2-3 or is that too bullish?
Keith Law: I’ll buy that. He dominated low-A on stuff, and he was way too old/experienced for the level. Now he gets a real test.

Mike: Thanks, Keith. Hopefully my stats class gets out early. Moon Palace closes at 8 according to their website – for others who might want to know.
Keith Law: Thank you. It starts at 6:30, and I’ll certainly try to stay to accommodate everyone. I signed the books of everyone who stayed on Tuesday.

Tyler: I admit I overreacted when I saw Judge wasn’t on your 25 under 25 list. Had his birthday not been 3 weeks ago, roughly what range would he have fallen in? (Also, Judge’s age makes you realize how everyone has different time tables of developing their talent.)
Keith Law: I didn’t consider anyone who didn’t qualify – once I include one guy who’s 25, I’d have to include or at least consider them all, and then the whole list is kaput. But yes, he did develop on a different path, and credit the Yankees for how they handled him.

Chris: Will Kyle Tucker be a top 10 prospect at years end he is killing it. Has he changed anything or just a body maturing
Keith Law: Great hitter. Not likely to be a top 10 prospect as a corner OF.

JD: is the political chaos as bad for your mental health as it is for us in DC, or does it not take up a big part of your mindspace?
Keith Law: It’s impossible to avoid this stuff if you’re online as much as I am. I’m happy with chaos if it slows the implementation of dangerous policies. This administration hasn’t given me any reason to think they have pro-growth economic policies coming.

Theo: Renfroe has suddenly started walking, did someone say “you shouldn’t swing at balls”? What would go into getting him to make this adjustment?
Keith Law: It’s been a week. That’s not necessarily an adjustment; guys who rarely walk can still have a seven-game stretch where they draw seven walks without any material change in their games.

Bob: The thing that boggles my mind is that though every team has an analytic department and most teams seem to use it in picking players, there are still so many managers that don’t seem to be on the same page.
Keith Law: Same. How guys like Scioscia and Collins have infinite job security – thanks to their owners – in the face of industry upheaval just boggles my mind. For everyone else, it’s evolve or die.

Larry David: How important is it for Triston McKenzie to pack on like, 50 pounds and how much can that mess with a guys mechanics?
Keith Law: Doubt he’s got room for 50 pounds, but he could gain 20 naturally over the next few years. He doesn’t really need velocity, but the prevailing belief is that size equals durability and if that’s true (I don’t know that it is) then it would be very important because he has to walk around storm grates.

John: Are you excited about Daniel Brito at all? He is small, but seems to have a useful tool set. Any chance he is better than a utility player down the line?
Keith Law: Oh I think he’s got a good chance to be a lot better than a UT. He’s so young his range of outcomes is high but he has star potential.

Jason: Heard of the band Temples? You should check em out.
Keith Law: Yep, at least two of their songs have made my monthly playlists, and one was on an annual top 100.

Ruth Bader: Any thoughts on the Cornell passing? Were you a fan of any of his music or appreciative of his versatile voice tool?
Keith Law: Loved, loved, loved Soundgarden, especially Louder than Love and Badmotorfinger. I remember an early interview with Cornell, maybe around 1991, where he cited Kafka, Camus, and Celine as influences on his lyrics. And while they were called grunge because they were Seattle-based and contemporaries of grunge acts, their music was quite progressive until Down on the Upside. I know their best output was behind them, but what a huge loss nonetheless. If you’re in the US and you need help, the national suicide prevention lifeline is 1-800-273-8255 and someone is there 24 hours a day.

addoeh: Any chance in the future that Statcast is used to determine errors in place of some dude in the press box? If say a fielder had a high percentage chance (say 90%) to make a play and doesn’t, they’d get an error.
Keith Law: We can only hope. Or just kill the error completely.

Jon : I know you’ve questioned the process behind the Craig Counsell hiring. But he’s also the only Brewer manager who has never had me pulling my hair out with stupid decision making. Can we say the process was flawed but result was good?
Keith Law: That can certainly happen.

Jason: Would Sixto Sanchez be a top 100 prospect for you if the rankings were redone?
Keith Law: No.

Tracy: Thanks a lot for sharing your story about your recent struggles with anxiety and dealing with medication. Like any other disorder, it has to be dealt with regularly and it never completely goes away. Hopefully, for those who also struggle with anxiety, they were able to take some measure of solace from your story. Thanks, Keith.
Keith Law: I’ve gotten a lot of responses from readers to that newsletter edition, more than anything else I’ve sent out, and I apologize for not getting back to everyone yet. But I saw all your notes and am thankful for everyone’s concern and well wishes, and glad I could do some good for those of you facing the same kind of mental illness issues.

Nate: Do you have any advice for a current college student who has aspirations to work in a baseball operations department from the analytics side? Thanks
Keith Law: Learn to code. Study topics relevant to big data, like machine learning and signal processing.

Nick: Mark Appel had one of the worst innings I’ve ever seen today. Struggled all year. Org guy or is there still hope for some value?
Keith Law: Stuff is still good, results are atrocious. Can’t pitch from the stretch at all. I think you have to move him to the bullpen to try to hit reset, but guys in the bullpen pitch with runners on base too. Hate to give up on a healthy arm with stuff, but at some point he has to show he can miss more bats and find a way to pitch with men on.

Moltar: Going to Philly for a long weekend, any eat/drinks recommendations?
Keith Law: High St on Market, Dizengoff, Barbuzzo, High Street on Market, Pizzeria Vetri, Pizzeria Stella, Osteria. There are some great high-end places like Vernick and Zahav but it can be extremely difficult to get a table there – I tried to get into Zahav for my anniversary, which is in mid-June, and they had nothing even though I called over a month ahead.

Troy: Keith, what is going on with Lucas Erceg? He was hitting just .211 the other day but less than a 20% strikeout rate. Just bad luck or something more? Also, Corey Ray starting to hit more!
Keith Law: It’s mid-May, and the minors have played a lot fewer games than the majors have. Don’t get too worried about players we knew were good, who were good last year, but haven’t performed yet.

Nate (Seattle): For players under suspension (such as Brickford or S Marte), what kind of contact can they have with their team? Do they get sent to Arz/Florida for extended spring training type workouts?
Keith Law: I believe they can work out in extended, but TBH I’m not really sure what the restrictions are.

Zach: I’m disappointed I can’t make it to Moon Palace tonight, I’m sure you’ll have a good turnout. Peace Coffee around the corner will help get you through, too. What places will you be dining at while in town?
Keith Law: Thank you – I’m excited to meet everyone. I’ll probably just have one dinner with my friend Evon, who lives in the area, but I’m not sure what the plan is. And then tomorrow I’ll get breakfast and go to Dogwood for coffee.

Ken: Just wanted to say thanks for your newsletter. I’m stable on medication for OCD and anxiety, and have been for a few years, but I always want to be careful not to take it for granted, or think I can’t have a rebound.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I took it for granted.

Chris: Is health and stature the knock on Cease? Does he have the durability to be a true ace
Keith Law: Stuff isn’t quite what it was in HS, and I think the FB plays down. I do like him, just maybe not what we thought he’d be.

Bob: In general, should guys who project to be very good relief pitchers start to specialize in the minor leagues or should they start to get in the innings? After all, their development is a higher priority than wins at that level.
Keith Law: I’m fine with starting those guys so they work on developing secondary stuff and pitch on a regular schedule.

Brett: Did you make it to Staplehouse while in Atlanta?
Keith Law: No, I ate at Cakes & Ale in Decatur, within walking distance of the venue. And the meal was spectacular.

Eric: Khalil Lee doesn’t have a great average in the minors, but his OB%, homeruns and SB look really encouraging. Have you hear anything about him?
Keith Law: He’s young for low-A, so it is encouraging, but he’s striking out a ton and the majority of scouts I know who saw him in HS had questions about the hit tool.

Santos: By career wRC+ Votto has the 7th best mark in baseball history, and is 14th on the list (lots of ties). It could be argued that he is a top 14 hitter in all of baseball history. Remember when people wanted him to change his approach a few years ago? RBIs are a hell of a drug.
Keith Law: By people, you mean Marty Brennaman, right?

Jeremy: Also Tim Tebow on cover of baseball america. They should know better over there right?
Keith Law: Gotta sell papers! The Tebow scouting piece I wrote in Arizona got huge traffic numbers. I wouldn’t revisit that topic because then I’d be pandering, but the reality is that sometimes a washed-up non-prospect moves the needle.

Mary: Will Flaherty be close to top 100 by midseason?
Keith Law: He was on my top 100 this past offseason, and of course would still be on it.

Brett: Keith, when ranking prospects how much do you factor in the ability to make adjustments? A lot has been made of Aaron Judge’s ability to improve once he gets comfortable with a level and he’s certainly made positive changes on his stance and laying off pitches he swung at when he was first called up last year.
Keith Law: That’s always in there and I cited it specifically when writing about Judge.

Mickey: Will you be going to Changing Hands in Phoenix or Tempe anytime soon for a signing?
Keith Law: I think I’ll do one there in October when I’m out for fall league – I’ve discussed it with Changing Hands and they’re game, but we haven’t fixed a date yet.

Jack Law: I thought Allen Cordoba would log a few dozen PA and be terrible. Is he doing better than you thought?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

John: Too bad you can’t find time to stop by the Twins broadcast booth. They seem to spend half their time talking about errors, batting average, and the virtue of sacrificing runners over.
Keith Law: In Smart Baseball I mention the irony of Bert Blyleven, who is only a Hall of Famer because of sabermetrics and the lobbying of people in the sabermetrics community, hating sabermetrics.

Mike: Of the HS outfielders potentially at the top of the draft – Royce Lewis, Austin Beck, Jordon Adell – who do you think has the best hit tool now and hit tool potential?
Keith Law: Lewis now & potential. Adell probably has the highest overall ceiling, though; I think he’s the best athlete of the three by a long shot.

Pop: Love the book! Is there anything I/We here in Austin could do to get you down here for a signing?
Keith Law: I’ll end with this even though there a lot of great questions in the queue – I have to get a move on here. If you want me to do a signing in your city, it has to come from a venue there (usually an independent bookstore) that asks HarperCollins. If I can work it into my schedule – I’m in MSP for ESPN, and doubling up with the signing – we’ll work to make it happen. But the inquiry has to come from the store or, as with Atlanta, a venue where I can do a talk or Q&A or whatever. I’m definitely doing signings in Toronto (6/26), Miami (7/8), and Harrisburg (7/15), tentatively in Brooklyn, Indianapolis (GenCon), Phoenix (October/AFL), and Philly (November, PAX Unplugged). I’m happy to do more; Tuesday night was fun, and while I admit to some raised anxiety, it went great and the readers were all great to talk to afterwards. And I didn’t even share the best story of all – maybe in the next newsletter.
Keith Law: Thank you all for all of your questions, for reading, and for al the kind words on the book and on my last newsletter. I am planning to go to Louisville next week for the ACC tournament and may have to move or skip the chat, so please stay tuned.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ May 13, 2017
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 5/13/17.

My one Insider post this week was my first ‘mock’ draft for 2017, although it’s really too early for that sort of exercise. And I held a Klawchat on Thursday.

Smart Baseball is out now in the U.S. and Canada; you can order it here or get it at any local bookstore. We are working on getting an ebook version out in some international markets, but I can’t promise anything there yet.

I have two signings/talks this week, for which I’m very excited (and a little anxious, to be honest). The first is in Decatur, Georgia (Atlanta area), at the Georgia Center for the Book on Tuesday at 7 pm, and the AJC was kind enough to lead their book events page with a note about my appearance. The second is in Minneapolis at Moon Palace Books on Thursday at 6:30 pm. I hope to meet many of you at these events, both of which are free to attend.

I’ve been asked by many of you about organizing other events. If a bookstore reaches out to Harper Collins to invite me, and I can work it into my schedule, I’m certainly open to doing more. I do have further events scheduled for Toronto, Miami (July 8th), and Berkeley (July 19th), plus am hoping to do signings at GenCon and PAX Unplugged later this year.

I spoke with SUNY-Oswego Professor of Digital Media Brian Moritz about the book, analytics in sports, and being a writer. I joined The Young Turks’ video show to discuss the book and media resistance to advanced stats. I also spoke with ESPN Radio in Dallas, with ESPN 1530 in Cincinnati, and with SI Now about the book & Mike Mussina’s Hall of Fame case.

And now, the links…

The best thing I heard this week was NPR’s half-hour program looking back at the riots in LA after the Rodney King verdict.
TIME is running a series on the rise of antibiotic-resistant bacteria that’s worth your time. I’ve said a few times that the #1 reason I buy organic dairy and eggs is to avoid contributing to the overuse of antibiotics in livestock.
A Nature editorial argues we need standardized language around antibiotic resistance to help combat the problem.
“Nobody dies because they don’t have access to health care,” said GOP Representative Raul Labrador in a quote that will one day go on his tombstone. But it turns out people with C. Difficile infections often don’t get medication because of lack of funds, even though the drug (vancomycin) is available as a generic. (Abstract only; article requires subscription.)
Dr. Chad Hayes explains why anti-vaxxers who demand double-blind studies are delusional, if not outright cruel. Such studies would violate basic medical ethics.
Norway is reopening a 46-year-old cold case around the murder of a still-unidentified woman who’d been traveling in the country with numerous passports and aliases.
The New York Times has been producing some great journalism this year … and some absolute trash, like an editorial by the head of an anti-abortion group that relied on pseudoscience and didn’t properly identify the author’s role with that organization, which runs “crisis pregnancy centers” that primarily exist to try to deter pregnant women from getting abortions, and has called abortion “the worst holocaust in human history.”
And then the Grey Lady comes back with Tim Egan’s strong editorial asking who will save our republic, a call to Republicans to stand up against the ongoing battle between the Administration and the Constitution.
A West Virginia journalist was arrested for yelling questions at HHS Secretary Tom Price. Did he break the law by trying to get past security? Or was this a violation of our right to a free press?
The failed state of Venezuela continues its downward spiral, a story with real implications for MLB and hundreds of players in organized baseball. The latest protest saw police pepper-spraying a “grandparents March” in Caracas.
VICE Sports goes back to how the Timberwolves drafted a 27-year-old player in Qatar over Isaiah Thomas, a bizarre story that reminded me of the old days of MLB teams giving large signing bonuses to Dominican players who’d faked their ages and even names.
Reading more books is good for your brain. I knew I wasn’t just wasting my time! This Quartz piece reviews seven tips to increase your reading output, although I’d say tips 1 and 2 are by far the most valuable. (Also, it’s cute that they hold up Bill Gates reading 50 books a year as amazing.)
A North Carolina reverend and political activist told NPR that the recent executive order on “religious freedom” is just thinly disguised religious bigotry.
Texas, continuing its own downward spiral, is now considering a bill that would allow adoption agencies to reject gay or non-Christian couples, even if they receive state funding, under the guise of “religious freedom.”
Iowa Republican Congressman Rod Blum walked out in the middle of a scheduled interview because he didn’t like the questions. He’s under fire for voting for the Trumpcare bill even though it appears his constituents don’t (or may not) support it.
Is American capitalism inherently anti-innovation? And are the ongoing cuts to government-funded research killing our economy’s capacity to innovate? I don’t know, although I wish the author hadn’t used Juicero as a jumping-off point for his arguments.
Can other countries replicate Germany’s success in retaining manufacturing jobs? The differences between their culture of innovation and skills development and ours are stark.
Three classic Atari videogames will be adapted as boardgames within the next year, although I’m not sure how these solo games will work in cardboard.
Goofy fun: mental floss looks at eleven bizarre international borders, including the famous Baarle-Nassau/Baarle-Hertog borders where a town is split between Belgium and the Netherlands, but not by anything resembling a straight line. (And yes, they flipped East & West Germany in one of the graphics.)

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: anti-science, boardgames, Economics, links, science, stick to baseball, vaccines

→ May 11, 2017
→ By keith

Klawchat, 5/11/17.

Chat starts at 1 pm ET; questions go in the frame below, not in the comments!

My first first-round projection for this year’s draft is now up for Insiders. And you can buy Smart Baseball, my first book, online or in any bookstore now.

Keith Law: Twisting like a cat on a hot tin shine. It’s Klawchat.

Greg: Hey Keith, is it bad that I’m disappointed in your projected Atlanta pick being a guy with an average fastball? Is that really the best pick at 5, or does he make up for it in other ways?
Keith Law: By all accounts Gore has great secondaries for a HS arm and an advanced feel to pitch. The ball also comes out of his hand really well – I wouldn’t be surprised if his release point was especially far towards the batter and if his fastball plays above its velo. I think it’s a strong consensus that he’s the second best prep arm in the class.

Frank: What was your reaction to Ronald Acuna being promoted to Double A so quickly?
Keith Law: I think it’s strange. I love the player, but he hadn’t dominated high-A – he had two great weeks and still struck out a lot.

kimchidad: Do you have any interest in doing live scouting in South Korea or Japan to get a better idea of the level of play in those leagues?
Keith Law: I mean, if you’re paying, sure.

Andrew: Thoughts on Tatis Jr so far this year?
Keith Law: None. He’s 18, in low-A, and it’s been a month. Unless he was totally overmatched (he’s not) or dominating (he’s not), there’s nothing here to change my preseason opinion of him.

Burns: Who has a better chance of becoming more than a backend starter, Beede or Honeywell?
Keith Law: Beede.

Wayne: In your top-five scenario, what other player(s) do you think Atlanta would be considering besides Gore?
Keith Law: I believe they’d kill for Greene or Lewis, but I don’t see either of those happening. Bear in mind that last year they weren’t really linked to Anderson by anyone until maybe two weeks before the draft.

Wayne: Through 126 PAs in Double A, Travis Demeritte is walking 11% and striking out 22%. When is it alright to put stock in the decreased K%?
Keith Law: I think it’s probably meaningful now. He had 150 AB after the trade last year, all in high-A, with a 33% K rate. So he moved up and is already making more contact. And bear in mind I think he might be a 7 defender at second.

Scott: American Gods – Impressed? Disappointed? I think they’ve been pretty true to the book so far. I’ve enjoyed the first 2 episodes.
Keith Law: I haven’t watched E2 yet. I thought E1 was compelling and McShane was great but the gore was stupid and undermined the episode.

Paco: Imagine prime Maddux was a prospect now. Would he be difficult to evaluate? Is it hard to project command/movement guys? I can’t imagine there’s too many rhp throwing high 80’s that are getting much hype.
Keith Law: Maddux could get into the low 90s, up to 94, in his peak, and he could really sink it with 80 command and a good changeup. He would probably be underrated, because everyone would question his ceiling, but he’d be considered a solid prospect for sure.

Danny: I’m a big fan of Chase Vallot. Think despite the strikeout issues, he pairs that with being able to walk (career 12% BB% in the minors – 16% this year in Wilmington). Of course the sticking point with him is if he can stay at catcher? Thoughts there? He also clearly has SOME idea of the strikezone given his walk rate, but why are the K’s so high?
Keith Law: Just saw him the other night; don’t think he’s a catcher, don’t agree that he’s got much plate discipline either.

Danny P: Evan White might fit in with the Cubs philosophy of the best college bat, though Rizzo would still be blocking him in a few years, can he be a decent Corner OFer. They also seem to love USA baseball guys. Is it a fit?
Keith Law: I’d be quite surprised if they took a 1b (who could definitely play the OF) with a career college walk rate of under 8%.

Eli: Where would Seth Romero rank on talent alone? How far do you see off-field concerns dropping him?
Keith Law: He would have gone in the first, I would have ranked him more towards the second (it’s not a good delivery), and I think he now goes second or third with a significant discount. Getting in a fight with a teammate on top of a mountain of previous incidents tells me either he’s got a real mental illness or he’s totally irresponsible.

GS (Minneapolis): My heart loves Miguel Sano while my head loved Max Kepler. Kepler seems so well-rounded to me and I think his net value is under appreciated by Twins fans. Well he develop 30 hr power?
Keith Law: Kepler? I’d say 20+, 30 is not impossible but not likely.

Greg: How much of the rumored desire of Hunter Greene to avoid Cincinnati, should Reds fans be concerned about?
Keith Law: I’d call that bullshit.

Ryan Philip: What’s your guess on how DD handles Devers down the stretch given their obvious need at 3b and the disaster Moncada was last year? At what point is it ok for them to throw Devers in the fire without sacrificing his development?
Keith Law: Buster said on the podcast this morning that he’s heard they might call Devers up; I said I thought that was aggressive, but that I also think Devers could handle the big jump without getting derailed. He’s a special talent at the plate.

David: Hi Keith,

When you see two-way players with the abilities of McKay and Greene would you push them, by default, to being either a hitter or a pitcher? I understand the need for pitchers, but with the injury risk there might be better value in being a hitter. I’m assuming it is all a case-by-case situation based on the player, but was just curious if you had any thoughts. As a Pirate fan I’m always reminded of John Van Benschoten when I hear about two-way players and wonder if there is an industry consensus on the way to go.
Keith Law: Case by case for me. I’d put Greene on the mound for sure. McKay I prefer on the mound but there’s a better case for him to hit than there is for Greene.

Chris: I always love your take on books, Keith, and was wondering if you’ve read The Sellout, by Paul Beatty, which won the Man Booker. I finished it a week or two ago and have never been more conflicted, in a good way, by a novel, especially a comic one. I left it having enjoyed it and its thematic point but feeling totally insecure and out of place, which might’ve been part of the point. Anyway I was wondering your thoughts. Thanks for all your great work.
Keith Law: Yep, I read it last July (my review). Very good, but also made me pretty uncomfortable. Only a black author with a confident voice could have written that book.

guren: A few weeks ago, SI ran an article where anonymous “scouts” provided comments for each team. A “scout” said that Eric Hosmer is “MVP caliber, a Triple Crown candidate.” On a scale of 1 to Tim Tebow playing baseball, how ridiculous is that scout’s statement? Also, what is it about Eric Hosmer that causes some scouts to over-rate him?
Keith Law: Although I occasionally quote scouts anonymously, I vet the quotes myself first. That writer did not. Or the scout isn’t real.

guren: Do you happen to know HarperCollins’ break-even point in terms of unit sales of your book? If so, is that something that you can share? I am just curious about the economics of the publishing industry.
Keith Law: I will only share this – the royalty structure in my contract is not linear. The rate for hardcover books is a step function, but it’s a straight line for ebooks.

Cedric: How many names are the Reds truly considering at #2? Anyone beyond Greene or McKay?
Keith Law: Maybe Wright. But I think he’s 3rd in a two-car race, so to speak.

Dana: Has Aaron Hicks finally figured it all out?
Keith Law: I want this to be true. It’s just too small a sample to say, but boy does it look like he’s rewarding my faith in him.

guren: Keith, I have noticed that you always use the phrase “begging the question” correctly (unfortunately you are in the minority), plus you rarely if ever have typos. I would surmise that proper grammar and spelling are important to you. Do you have any grammar or usage pet peeves?
Keith Law: Yeah, although I don’t trot them out in public because it’s mostly just pedantry (and can come off as classism). I’ll give you one, though: “is comprised of.” The word “comprise” means “contains,” in the sense that a group comprises its members (and the members constitute the group).

Andy: Knowing that you think he’s the #1 talent, would you pick Greene #1 if you were the Twins GM? While there’s risk no matter who you pick, a HS RHP with huge velocity has more red flags than other categories.
Keith Law: No, I think a college 1b without another position has more red flags. The history of that profile is god-awful. I’d take Greene.

Henry : Keith, sorry, accidentally posted this on comment box. Have any of your broadcast/journalist colleagues changed their view/reporting as a result of your book?
Keith Law: You’d have to ask them, sorry.

Kevin: Why did Gausman struggle in April? Do some pitchers not like pitching in cold weather or cold weather affects their pitches?
Keith Law: He’s from Colorado. I think he’s pitched in the cold before.

Mike: When do you think Leodys Taveras of Texas plays in the MLB? (Yes I know he is 18)
Keith Law: In 2019.

Nick: Buxton has been putting together some pretty solid ABs lately. It’s a low bar, but how long do you think it takes before he gets his AVG into the .220s and OBP in the .320s?
Keith Law: Aaron Gleeman’s been … um … gleefully tweeted about Buxton’s rise. After the first 50 or so AB, Buxton’s been on fire with more BB and fewer K. I would bet on him keeping it up.

msubin26: what is your take on the Matt Harvey situation now and historically?
Keith Law: No take. I don’t know the truth behind it all, and any take I offer would be like a cream puff right out of the oven: Hot on the outside, totally empty on the inside.

Kyle KS: How difficult was it to resist the urge of putting a picture of yourself holding a bat or leaning on a bat on the cover of your book? Seems like the go-to for baseball books.
Keith Law: HC never suggested that, but I would have gone to court to stop it if they had.

Rob: Do you foresee any of Senzatela, Freeland or Marquez becoming long-term rotation options for the Rockies? Freeland & Senzatela aren’t striking anybody out, so I’m planning on some major regression soon, but could one (or more!) of them stick around for the long haul?
Keith Law: Freeland is most likely for me. Marquez needs a third pitch. Senzatela does too, and lacks the velocity or any sort of swing and miss option to be a starter.

Erich: Showalter seems to be running starters out at pretty high pitch counts, including Bundy. Bundy has started the 7th/8th inning this year a couple of times over 100 pitches. Ubaldo was at 91 going out for the 8th and didn’t get pulled until 115 pitches and 3 runs given up. Gausman started the 6th or 7th last week at over 100 pitches. With the bullpen being their strength, this seems counter intuitive, especially with Bundy in his first healthy season and the data showing his velocity decreasing later in games.
Keith Law: I think his usage of Bundy has been criminal. I know the kid’s results have been good, but he’s showing clear signs of fatigue within starts and he’s compensating for the average (or worse) fastball by throwing a ton of sliders. I know the bullpen is nicked up with Britton out for a while and Brach returning to normal, but this isn’t the solution.

Rob: Other than a couple of gems (Kreator, Gone is Gone, Pallbearer), it’s been a pretty mediocre year for metal. Any records you can recommend that I might have missed?
Keith Law: The Mastodon album, for sure. I liked the new Sepultura album although I know some folks refuse to listen to anything post-Max from them. I need to listen to the whole Memoriam album too – I liked the first song I heard, “Memoriam.”

Dave: I know the long standing best practice is draft what you consider best player available regardless of team needs. However I can’t think of anything else I’d buy using that strict rule. I think stocks might be one but the conventional wisdom for investments is diversification. If marginal difference why not draft what you need?
Keith Law: Because you’re selecting players you won’t use for anywhere from one to five years. Are you that good at forecasting your needs five years out?

Fuzzy Dunlop: Next is a food/coffee question. Im going to be in Atlanta next month to watch my Braves play my best friend’s Mets in a contest of which team can be more dysfunctional. Im vaguely familiar with good places to eat, but what food and coffee places can you recommend?
Keith Law: Spiller Park for coffee (I’ll be there on Tuesday morning!). Food, man, it’s a great town. Empire State South, The Lawrence, Cakes & Ale, the Luminary, Gunshow (I didn’t love it, most people do), Staplehouse (haven’t been), The Optimist (haven’t been). Feels like I’m forgetting a couple of spots too.

Xolo: At what position do you see Royce Lewis ending up?
Keith Law: Centerfield.

Mike: The Mets are planning to continue to use Jose Reyes at third. At what point should they call up Rosario?
Keith Law: Yesterday.

Greg: I just finished reading your book (very enjoyable). I have a question about whether there has been any recent work done on pitch sequencing or the complementarity of certain pitches with one another (i.e. having two pitches with opposite breaks). I hear a fair bit about this during broadcasts, but haven’t ever read anything concrete to back up the intuition.
Keith Law: Thank you. I believe BP wrote something on the subject last year but don’t have the link handy.

Jack: If I recall you considered Brent Graves as good value for A’s 3rd pick in 2014. Up until this year he’s basically been a total bust. Certainly SSS his strikeout to walk ratio has improved drastically. Is it a case of 24 year old pitching in High A ball or have you heard anything to suggest he has a future as a decent major league starter.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t buy into 26 innings for a guy repeating the level; last time I saw him was March 2016.

Jeff: Andrew Toles is now out for the year, but what’s his ultimate ceiling going forward? I see a 4th OF, but many fans think he’s much more than that. Can you please provide a final verdict?
Keith Law: Never thought he was more than that.

Brian: Dave Cameron at Fangraphs had a chat yesterday and commented about Lucas Giolito, “the stuff is down, the results are bad, and he’s been overrated for a while now.” Everyone would agree the results are bad. Is the stuff really down, though? And if so, how down?
Keith Law: The stuff was down for maybe two starts. There’s a lot of 94-95, still, but the delivery isn’t back to where it was through the end of 2015.

Billy: Outside of Faedo, where do you project the rest of the Gators going in the draft?
Keith Law: Guthrie in the second or third, I would say third but college infielders tend to go high. Schwarz to me is undraftable – he has no position and doesn’t hit enough to take as a bad 1b/dh.

Stanyon Turtze: Congrats on the book sales. I’m sorry your joy has to be tempered by the fact that your son is playing for the worst team in baseball. At least he (barely) picked up a save yesterday. You must be so proud! BTW, I think you called him your 6’5 son in a chat last year. ESPN lists him as 6’2. BAD DAD! 🙂
Keith Law: Oh, like THEY would know.

Sam: If Sean Spicer had a sense of humor, he’d go on SNL and play Melissa McCarthy in a spoof of one of her movies or Mike & Molly.
Keith Law: Well, it sounds like he’ll have some free time on his hands soon.

Carlos: How does Gore compare to Allard coming out of high school? Both seems to have similar profiles based on your synopsis. Thanks!!!
Keith Law: Allard had a better CB (but a back injury). Gore I think has a bit more projection.

Rick: Despite no homers in AAA, Tapia is crushing to the tune of a 1.031 OPS. When does he get the call?
Keith Law: He’s in Albuquerque, perhaps the best hitting environment in any full-season league. No homers there is kind of … not good. (And I like Tapia a lot as a prospect. I’m just saying a 1.031 OPS there doesn’t tell us anything.)

mike sixel: No Sam Carlson in your mock, unless I missed it. You don’t think he’s one of the top players, or he’s not tied to any teams?
Keith Law: I ranked him in the top 20. I just don’t think he’s that likely to go in the first. He might be a sandwich/second-round overpay to buy him out of a good college (Florida) commitment, like Joey Wentz or Kevin Gowdy last year.

Gabriel: Hey Klaw! thanks for the mock draft, i read the other day that some scouts think gore is a better prospect than greene.. is this possible?
Keith Law: Is it possible that one scout said that? Sure. But I don’t agree.

JimLindeman15: The Cardinals have ten successful sacrifice bunts, and all ten have dropped their win expectancy.
Keith Law: Maybe they should cut that out. Also, Matheny IBB’d the tying run last night in the 9th inning.

Andrew: Any 70/75/80 tool guys in this year’s draft besides Hunter Greene’s infield arm and Kendall and Thompson probably being 80 runners? I remember you being spot on with AJ Reed having 70-80 raw power as an amateur when most people had him pegged at lower.
Keith Law: Greene’s fastball too. Baz has reached 98, so you might claim it’s a 70 fastball, although I don’t think he’ll pitch there.

Kevin: Who is the first big leaguer from the 2017 draft class? Thanks for your time. Enjoyed your book!
Keith Law: I think McKay could appear this year as a LHS if someone wanted to move him fast.

ritchie vanian: I am currently reading “The Master and Margarita” -thanks for the tip. My wife is waiting for me to finish so she can start it.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. Such a great, imaginative read.

Bryan: Thomas Pannone has a scoreless streak of 51 innings. Is he legit? A future ML starter? Career minor leaguer?
Keith Law: To be clear, he gave up a run, but it was unearned, which I mention because I talk about the worthlessness of the earned/unearned run distinction in Smart Baseball. Also, I don’t think he’s a prospect unless something changed in the last few weeks.

Vin: Looks like Collins can no longer hold Conforto back (hopefully)…what can we expect his end of season numbers to look like?
Keith Law: Don’t doubt Terry’s ability to screw with young players – and to do so with impunity, since it seems like nothing will get him fired. I think Conforto’s a 400 OBP guy with 20+ HR.

George: Is Pavin Smith too high for Oakland at #6?
Keith Law: Smith’s performance this year is unimpeachable. I even ranked him in my top 10. But gah, a college 1b with a single-digit pick?

Jim: I need to open a new bank account, and I wanted to get your advice. Do you have any thoughts on BofA?
Keith Law: Make sure you ask them for their Updog promotion.

Jon: I get San Diego what is trying to do with the Rule 5 picks. But aren’t they doing a disservice to a guy like Luis Torrens, who isn’t going to play the entire year, and then next year is going to get sent down to A ball again. This is a guy who didn’t play much the past few years because of injury. Does his career survive this?
Keith Law: He gets a year of service and major-league pay, which isn’t nothing. But I agree that it can screw up some guys’ careers and I don’t think it’s that likely to work out for the team either.

Mike: Have you heard anything about how Ryan McMahon has looked defensively at 2B at Hartford, and do you think playing 2B significantly affects his path to the majors and/or future value?
Keith Law: It sounds like he’s ultimately going to end up at first.

Bill: Anthony Banda has been pretty wild overall this year, but much better the last couple of starts. Do you think the Miller injury gives him a shot sometime this summer? Chance at a #3 or more back end for you?
Keith Law: Chance at a #3 is about right.

Ryan: Luiz Gohara appears to be a steal for the Braves. Are there any red flags that i’m not aware of that lead to Seattle giving him away for nothing?
Keith Law: Off-field stuff, including issues with drinking.

Adam: Not writing him off or anything, but has some of the sheen worn off of Fernando Tatis Jr as he strikes out at a high rate in Single A? Especially as the similarly aged Vlad Guerrero Jr dominates his level?
Keith Law: Answered above – he’s 18. He’s younger than Conner Uselton. It’s really ridiculous to think he’s lost any “sheen.”

Ken T: I just wanted to say Thank You for Smart Baseball. I’ve been waiting a long time for a book that wasn’t written for stat geeks to help me understand a lot of the sabermetric stats in use by MLB today. It’s also helped me articulate to my friends WHY the stats they still cling to are useless – although I’ve never had trouble arguing why the save should be sbot at sunrise. Any chance you might do a book signing in the Boston area?
Keith Law: If I end up there over the summer, I’ll try to set something up – or if a bookstore asks, I can try to work a trip around their schedule.

Buck: You were weirdly dismissive of Luis Urias last week (“Have you…even seen him walk around?”). He won Hi-A MVP at 18, and is now putting up a .944 OPS as the youngest player in the Texas League. He’s got more walks than strikeouts for his career, and is said to be a soid defensive 2b. What is it that keeps a guy like this off all the prospect lists?
Keith Law: I was dismissive of the question, which was merely scouting the stat line. As for Urias, he’s not an everyday SS and he’s quite small for a regular. And yet I still ranked him in the top 10 for the Padres, who have a top 3 system in all of baseball.

Hugh: Really enjoying the book. It was the first one I’d preordered since The Deathly Hallows. My only complaint was the lack of a strong female character. Please address in the sequel.
Keith Law: My book utterly failed the Bechdel test.

HT from Tokyo: Have you been to Japan to scout players or for vacation? I’m a huge fan of yours and would love to know your reactions and experience in my country!
Keith Law: Never been. My lone trip to Asia was to Taiwan in 2004.

Mattey: I’m sure I won’t be the only Phillies fan asking for your thoughts on Altherr today..
Keith Law: It’s 85 PA and he has a .413 BABIP with power like he’s never shown before at any level. I’m a bit skeptical that he’ll keep this up.

Josh: Outside of one bad start, Dinelson Lamet has been dominant in a hitter-friendly environment. Has the changeup improved enough for him to remain a starter, or is he just relying on the fastball/slider combo still and destined for the pen? Thanks
Keith Law: LHB still killing him.

JR: Do you think you will ever read all the books on you list to the point your only options are basically reading new books and/or re-reading favorites?
Keith Law: Nah, there are way more good books out there than I’ll ever get to.

Jean Lazure: Hi Keith – reading your book, really enjoying it. I just get sad when I go through my old baseball books and see a good many examples of players who didn’t cut it under yesterday’s stats – BA, RBI, etc. – yet mastered the then-unappreciated skill of getting on base through walks, and thus never got a proper and deserved shot at MLB. Any such favourites you can recall?
Keith Law: Roberto Petagine had a little fan club among us online statheads back in the 1990s.

Matt in the Bronx: Keith have you heard anything if the Mets like Brooklyn product Nick storz or Queens product Quentin Holmes? We are very excited around here see if we can get some more hometown guys on the team.
Keith Law: Neither has been very good this year.

Josh: So this Cody Bellinger kid is decent, huh?
Keith Law: I ranked him 6th on my top 100, and actually moved him down after sending my list around to a bunch of scouts/FO guys. He was originally 2nd. Maybe I should have stuck to my guns?

JR: In your opinion, would there be any downside to holding the MLB draft over All Star break? There is literally no other sporting events going on, so it would be a good way to get the draft more attention. Would pushing it back a month be detrimental in any way?
Keith Law: It would hurt short-season leagues, which isn’t nothing but shouldn’t be the primary consideration for MLB. It would mean every player is done playing, though, and could attend the draft.

Sage: Fav player growing up? I’m guessing you were a Don Mattingly guy
Keith Law: Willie Randolph.

Josh: Given the strong start to the season, how long would you wait to move Cal Quantrill up to AA?
Keith Law: Not long. If he’s on a low innings cap, might as well have him throw them somewhere where hitters will challenge him more.

Carl: IIRC Bubba Starling was considered a great pick for the Royals. What went wrong?
Keith Law: Never really hit in pro ball. He had lots of tools but the hit tool was questionable, and his competition in HS was atrocious. They wanted one of the four pitchers taken ahead of him and those guys went 1-2-3-4.

Alex : Who do you think Robert signs with? Think he will have an unofficial deal in place before 20th?
Keith Law: I’ve heard Cardinals, and I’ve heard Astros, but I really don’t have any inside info.

NYTT: Weigel moved up to AAA. What have you heard on him and is he a long-term starter?
Keith Law: Definitely a long-term starter for me.

Chris: Jay Bruce has been solid but when Cespedes returns would you consider trading him so Conforto can play full-time NOT in CF? I would.
Keith Law: I would too. Or benching him. Conforto is one of their top 2 outfield bats; therefore, he must play.

Jon: Keith, I’m thinking of taking a job with the DE Courts system. Having not eaten at Cocina Lolo, should it’s presence play a part in my decision making? Thanks.
Keith Law: Yes, it’s good enough to push you to “yes.”

Josh: Is Calvin Mitchell a possibility at the end of the 1st, or do you see him sliding into the 2nd/3rd because he’s 1B only?
Keith Law: 1B only and hasn’t hit very well this spring, so I think he slides to the second.

Matt: Maikel Franco’s advanced numbers look pretty different this year, especially in terms of patience. I think you’ve liked his hands but not his approach in the past, has that changed at all?
Keith Law: Way too small of a sample to draw any conclusions on his patience changing.

Matt: From what I understand, the Cape Cod league is the premier Summer league for collegiate players. I live near a field that hosts a team playing in the Northwoods League. Is there a steep drop in talent between the two leagues? Am I watching any future big leaguers when I attend these games?
Keith Law: Big drop, yes, but the NWL still produces lots of big leaguers.

NYTT: I’m surprised that the Braves would be in on Kyle Wright. He’s been that good the past couple of months? What is his outlook like if he can be consistent with what he’s shown lately?
Keith Law: He’s been so good he shouldn’t get to their pick. (BTW, I don’t think I said anywhere they’d be on him.)

Danny: Does Sixto Sanchez have more potential than anyone in the Phillies organization? What is that potential?
Keith Law: It’s a 70 fastball with control, but secondary stuff isn’t there now. I know some folks would say a guy with that kind of velocity and a good delivery has a #1 ceiling but I would take less velo and a better breaking ball or changeup.

Chris: Any comment on this Kapler/Francona/Dodgers drama? The fact Francona rejected a $150K settlement has to give one pause.
Keith Law: Again, I know nothing about it, and thus can’t offer an opinion.

MikeM: Can Greg Bird’s struggles at the plate be explained by his bone bruise on his front ankle? I am not an expert on hitting mechanics but that kind of injury would seem to disrupt mechanics and timing.
Keith Law: Or maybe his shoulder isn’t at 100% strength? Either would explain it. I’m fine with them taking it slow with him if they feel like sending him to AAA for a few weeks to rake would help.

Matt : Is there anything different in Serevino’s approach this year to make you think he says in the rotation? His walks are down significantly….just SSS?
Keith Law: Slider has gotten much better and he’s more physical up top than he was. I haven’t seen the delivery except the centerfield view which isn’t great for looking at a guy’s lower half.

JL: Just finished reading your book – very well done! Are you going to hate me since I borrowed a copy from a library instead of buying one?
Keith Law: Nope. I like libraries. I use the one down the street from us quite a bit.

Ridley Kemp: I just finished the book, and as someone who worked in the shallow end of the baseball analysis pool for a few years…man, I wish I had been able to explain what I was trying to do as well as you did. No question to ask, I just wanted to say that yours is the best baseball book I’ve read this century, and the most enjoyable to read.
Keith Law: Wow, thank you so much.

Evan: Do you think that the MLB should allow all draft picks to be traded? If so, how do you think it would change the trade market?
Keith Law: Yes, perhaps with the caveat that a team can only trade up to $X million, or up to Y% of its bonus pool total. It’ll help create more trades and make the draft more interesting too.

Matt : Thoughts on the Comey firing? Really trending to Watergate territory here….
Keith Law: I think you’d have to make a strong argument why this isn’t the same thing as Nixon firing the special prosecutor.

JJ: During the run-up to the Oscars, you were pretty vocal about your distaste for Mel Gibson, for his past anti-Semitic comments. Do you feel the same way about Roman Polanski over his past actions? How do you separate the art from the artist?
Keith Law: I do. I’ve seen the Pianist, before I really knew anything about RP, but that’s it. I won’t watch films by him, Gibson, or Woody Allen. I don’t really feel the loss. And I’m not a professional critic who has to watch any movies s/he doesn’t want to watch.

Andrew Stevenson…: 4th OF or MLB regular?
Keith Law: MLB regular.

JP: Michael Ruhlman speaking at Powells Books on Wednesday. Maybe he can have his store contact call your people to set up an event?
Keith Law: I think my publicist said they’re not big on baseball books. Could be wrong.

Jon: Were you/are you a fan of Faith No More?
Keith Law: Yes, those two big albums, then I thought they fell off fast after Angel Dust.

Sam: By the way, in additional to my needy NY/BOS themed questions I really appreciate how vocal you are about vaccinations as a dad to a 17 month old. You seem to not mind the trolls, I’m just sorry that it’s necessary.
Keith Law: But it is necessary, and I think I have some obligation to use my podium for good purposes.

Dave: Loved your appearance on MLB Now, hopefully there will be more in the future. Any chance that Jeren Kendell moves up into the top ten or has his season this spring been to damaging?
Keith Law: It was really fun to do – Brian & co were great, and the staff behind the scenes couldn’t have been friendlier. As for Kendall, it’s probably too late for that.

Jon: What’s Updog?
Keith Law: Not much, dog, but the chat’s over. Thank you all for all of your questions and your patience with me this week. I will be in Atlanta next Tuesday evening for a signing at the Georgia Center for the Book and Minneapolis on Thursday for a signing at Moon Palace Books. I’ll try to squeeze in a chat next week as well. And, finally, thank you again to everyone who’s bought and read Smart Baseball!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ May 6, 2017
→ By keith

The End of Ownership.

Aaron Perzanowski and Jason Schultz’s book The End of Ownership gives a surprisingly strong argument that our rights as consumers are rapidly being eroded by changes both in the law and in technology, so that we no longer own many things we might believe we do. In the era of digital goods from books and music and movies to software, we are still paying for the same content, but when once we purchased, now we merely “license” – even though most consumers probably aren’t even aware of the change.

For most of the history of commerce, if you bought a good, you got the good, and that was essentially that. If you bought a book, you owned that copy of the book. You were free to do with that copy as you wished, so long as you didn’t make unauthorized copies of it. You could lend it to someone, or you could sell it outright. The owner of the copyright on that book could not stop you from doing any of those things, nor could s/he repossess the book from you for any reason. The same is true of a patented good: if you buy a widget, you can resell the widget, even if the widget itself is covered by a patent. This is known as the “exhaustion principle” or the “first sale doctrine.” (I’m sticking with U.S. domestic laws on intellectual property here; the rules laws on international exhaustion are often less clear.) I own a special green-vinyl edition of A Tribe Called Quest’s single “I Left My Wallet in El Segundo;” I still own that record, but I could lend, sell, or donate it as I please, without the group’s permission, and without affecting ATCQ’s copyright to the underlying work.

In the digital realm, however, this principle has been superseded by licensing agreements – those things you’re given when you download a digital good or install a software update, which you don’t read but you click “Agree” anyway because let’s get on with this already. Those licenses say you don’t own the goods you’re paying for, even though you probably clicked on something that said the word “buy,” which strongly implies a purchase, not a license. Those agreements, known as end-user licensing agreements or EULAs, curtail the consumer’s rights in ways that the consumer may not understand or expect, resulting in an imbalance of information between buyer and seller where the former probably believes he’s acquiring more rights than he actually is, including the rights to make copies of the good for his personal use, and the right to retain the product in perpetuity.

Law professors Perzanowski and Schultz argue that this is a three-pronged problem. One, consumers believe they’re getting something they’re not. Two, companies are unilaterally abrogating rights afforded to consumers by federal and state laws. And three, Congress and federal courts have totally dropped the ball on the entire issue, passing laws that favor content creators at the expense of both consumers and the public good, or issuing contradictory rulings that reduce our rights in ways that consumers don’t understand and that help take away any semblance of ”ownership.”

The authors give copious examples, some of which were truly non-obvious to me. As the so-called “Internet of Things” expands to include more devices that don’t obviously need an internet connection but have one anyway – like the microwave in that Conway twit’s kitchen – then our rights of ownership are also affected. You might own the physical parts of the refrigerator, but you’re only licensing the software on it, so you can’t sell the fridge because you don’t own the whole thing. You may not be able to sell your smartphone for the same reason – the manufacturers can argue that you are only licensing the software on it, which means you own the device but not the entire unit to be able to sell it.

Why is this OK? The authors give the example of a hat that is only licensed to the purchaser, not sold, so the purchaser can’t transfer ownership of the hat via any method to anyone else. Would you buy that hat? Would you even understand the legalese that accompanies it? In another example, the authors pose the hypothetical of “single-use” car tires, which your tire license would prohibit you from repairing once they were damaged or worn out. Consumers have a specific expectation when they purchase something, but when you ‘purchase’ a digital good, those expectations exceed the reality, yet for some reason we accept this loss of purchaser rights in the digital realm without any real pushback.

What about libraries in the digital world? Some publishers, including HarperCollins (mine), have created programs for libraries to buy digital books, but with heavy restrictions on how libraries may lend them out; HarperCollins only allows one ‘copy’ of the book to be on loan at any time, and after a fixed number of borrowings (I think it’s 24), the library’s license to the book must be renewed. The publishers argue that such restrictions are necessary to avoid cannibalizing the market for book sales, and that the restrictions mirror the physical decay of books that are repeatedly handled and borrowed. I can understand the former, but the latter doesn’t hold water for me, since I recently borrowed a book, Martin Flavin’s Pulitzer-winning novel Journey in the Dark, from my local library, and the edition – worn, but intact – dated back to the late 1940s.

The authors do an excellent job of translating thorny legal questions into accessible language, and offer some very specific solutions that Congress could enact to solve many of these problems – and if Congress had ever shown an iota of interest in protecting consumer interests over those of copyright holders, well, I might have some hope. The legislative history of copyright law in the U.S. is essentially all anti-consumer, with copyright terms becoming longer and such laws on digital goods reducing consumer rights even further. The mere concept of copyright was to ensure content creators were sufficiently rewarded so that they’d continue to create – if you can’t make money off your creations, you’ll have to do something else to pay the bills. The concept was not intended to provide such legal protections for two human lifetimes, but that’s about where it stands now, because there are some very big companies out there who depend on long-term copyright protections, and they can spend to ensure that works don’t fall into the public domain when they were originally scheduled to do so. The parade of degradations of consumer rights seem unlikely to cease any time soon, and the end of that path could be the end of ownership.

Next up: Upton Sinclair’s novel Dragon’s Teeth, winner of the 1943 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: business, copyright, Economics, non-fiction

→ May 6, 2017
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 5/6/17.

Smart Baseball is out! Buy it here or at any local bookstore. It’s available in the US and Canada, in print, ebook, and audiobook forms. I have inquired about distribution elsewhere in the world but I can only report that we’re looking into it and nothing is imminent.

My one piece for Insiders this week covered the very limited market for Eric Hosmer this upcoming winter, given his lack of production and how few teams have openings at first or DH. I held a Klawchat, a bit shorter than normal, on Thursday.

I did an interview with the folks behind the Pocket bookmarketing app, and appeared on the public radio program AirTalk, both to talk about Smart Baseball. I also spoke with ESPN’s Jeremy Schaap on his radio show The Sporting Life.

* Anti-vaxxers have targeted Somali immigrants in Minnesota and caused a measles outbreak there. While I understand that we try not to criminalize speech here, how is this – claiming vaccines cause autism, a bad hypothesis fully debunked by science – any different than shouting “fire” in a crowded theater, causing needless panic and great public harm? (And yes, the Holmes quote is itself problematic, and he started walking it back almost immediately.) And why do we permit Wakefield to operate in the U.S.? We could easily deny him entry; he’s a greater threat to the broader population than suspected Islamic militants.

* George Will dropped two strong columns this past week for the Washington Post. The one you might have seen says the President has “a dangerous disability” and calls him unfit for office. The one you might have missed argues for repealing the mortgage interest tax deduction, which costs the US government about $100 billion annually in foregone revenues. This is an unpopular and controversial proposal; passing it would cause a one-time hit to housing prices and put many people underwater on their loans. But the exemption amounts to a regressive tax, and at the very least we should limit such deductions to primary residences (not second or third houses).

* Will’s column about the President came a few days after the vulgar talking yam was inconsistent and even incoherent after a long day of interviews. Remember when he questioned whether Hillary Clinton would have the stamina to be President? That was fun.

* Dion Walters of the Miami Heat wrote a hilarious and poignant piece for the Players Tribune at the end of April, which I missed because it went up the day Smart Baseball was released.

* NPR wrote about northerners flying the Confederate flag while openly denying that it is a racist symbol that stood for and will always stand for slavery. If one of my neighbors put one up outside his house and refused to remove it, I’d take it down by force. It’s no better than flying a flag with a swastika.

* While driving around southern California this week, I spent a lot of time listening to the indispensable NPR One app, which brought me some great stories and several episodes of a new podcast, The Grift, which I highly recommend. Two stories I liked enough to share: how the autocratic state government in Texas is destroying local government powers, and on the development of the Cosmic Crisp apple in Washington, which might be the next big hit apple with consumers.

* An epidemiologist explains why science is never perfect – that studies nearly always have some sort of flaws or biases, but that those don’t invalidate the results or make the studies worthless (a common claim of deniers like anti-vaxxers).

* How’s this for a bad headline. Something called the “Washington Free Beacon” wrote that a Democratic Congressional candidate in Montana said climate change deniers should kill themselves. What he actually said: “If any those of you that feel like this is not a problem, I challenge you to go into your car in your garage, start your car, and see what happens there.” This is obviously a ham-handed and scientifically weak attempt to point out the effects of burning fossil fuels on our atmosphere. But hey, gotta get dem clicks.

* ThinkProgress’ Lindsay Gibbs weighs in on the myth that ESPN is “liberal” simply because we argue against domestic violence or discrimination.

* Speaking of which, those liberal firebrands at Consumer Reports write that the Affordable Care Act led to a decline in personal bankruptcies.

* Someone in Russia is blinding Putin’s opponents with chemical attacks. It can’t happen here, though, right?

* You’ve probably seen the outrage among scientists that the New York Times hired a climate-change denier, Bret Stephens, in the name of “balance.” Did you also catch their publication of a bogus story on “alternative” medicine? Remember: There is no “alternative” medicine. If it works, it’s medicine. Otherwise, it’s bullshit.

* The passage of the AHCA, with many Congresspersons voting for it against the wishes of their constituents, has led to some direct financial results already:

In less than 24 hrs since #AHCA vote:

– Daily Kos raised $800k
– ActBlue raised $500k
– SwingLeft raised $500k

To fund GOP challengers

— laura olin (@lauraolin) May 5, 2017

* The Washington Post explains why that organic milk you bought might not be organic. The USDA’s organic labeling program has been a total failure, one of many examples where that agency has raised costs and wasted taxpayer money with no benefit to consumers. FWIW, I do buy organic milk because I want to support antibiotic-free husbandry, and “organic” is a fair proxy for that, but I don’t think the claimed health benefits of milk from grass-fed cows are proven.

* The James Beard Restaurant/Chef Awards are out! The winners include former Top Chef contestant Sarah Grueneberg, who won Best Chef: Great Lakes; her restaurant, Monteverde, provided one of the best meals I’ve ever eaten when I visited last July.

* This piece exhorting us to stop using public wifi networks makes sense, but is not terribly practical. Mobile data remains expensive and can’t match wifi speeds. The solution would seem to lie in making such networks more secure for most uses – although logging into your bank or credit card accounts on those networks will always be a bad idea.

* A new bill in Hawai’i’s legislature is essentially a sweetheart giveaway of state land rights to private tenants.

* Author/writer/Twitter wit Kelly Oxford discusses coming to terms with her panic disorder in an excerpt from her new book, When You Find Out the World Is Against You: And Other Funny Memories About Awful Moments.

* The Atlantic‘s Conor Friedersdorf argues that smugness isn’t a liberal characteristic, but a universal one. People at either extreme can veer into condescension of those with opposing views. Of course, the targets of condescension may have earned such disdain if they’re spouting conspiracy theories or outright falsehoods; treating cranks with respect isn’t going to accomplish anything either.

* If you live in Florida and believe convicted felons who have completed their jail terms should regain their rights to vote – as they would in 40 other states – there is a petition you can sign and group you can join to try to help make that a reality.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: anxiety, links, organic agriculture, stick to baseball, top chef, vaccines, voter suppression

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