Top Chef, S14E11.

If you’re looking for this week’s Klawchat transcript, click that link.

Down to the final four, with no rookies remaining, and the final episode in Charleston before the series heads to Mexico for the final rounds.

* Quickfire: Guest judge Michael Solomonov of Zahav here in Philly. I’ve still not been to Zahav, although I’ve been to their hummus bar Dizengoff a couple of times (it’s incredible). With a name like Solomonov, does he just split all his dishes down the middle?

* It’s that stupid partition challenge where they have to give instructions to someone they can’t see. It was on Top Chef Masters once and was painful to watch then. The winner gets $10K and a Joule sous-vide machine, which J. Kenji Lopez-Alt reviewed favorably on Serious Eats last year.

* It’s John’s wife, Sheldon’s wife, Brooke’s sister, and Shirley’s husband. This is ridiculous – there’s no way three of them didn’t recognize their spouses’ voices.

* OK, Sheldon figured it out. The face he made when he realized it was priceless. “Knowing the skillset of my wife, I’m going to keep this one super simple.” If I said that to my wife, I would not have a wife any more.

* Brooke’s got her sister poaching eggs, which is not easy at all – they can stick to the bottom, they get very stringy and wispy if you don’t strain the extra liquid from the white, etc.

* Sheldon’s a former WDW cast member! I’ve asked him on Twitter what his job was.

* Tesar doesn’t have a guess who he was working with. He’s surprised when he sees who it is, saying his wife is shy and didn’t want to be on TV. Their dishes are pretty similar.

* Shirley seems legitimately surprised too. “I’m glad I didn’t recognize your voice, otherwise I would be flustered.” Her husband Jimmy’s dish is slightly better seasoned.

* Brooke sees it’s her sister and asks, “how did I not recognize her voice?” Theirs look pretty similar and taste very similar. Padma seems to pick on Jessica’s poached egg, but I think it looks good for a novice; I’ve probably poached eggs a dozen times or so and I’ve read a bunch of tips (Ruhlman’s in Egg is probably the best recipe) and mine still don’t come out perfect.

* Sheldon and his wife also got their dishes to look very similar, right down to the knifework. He wins the challenge and is closing the gap between him and Brooke to be the favorite to win.

* Elimination challenge: Mary Sue Milliken of Border Grill and Top Chef Masters is there. The chefs must prepare dishes that represent their journeys in Charleston, and the winner will get to serve it at the James Beard House there. Padma is cooking dinner at the house for the four chefs and their family members.

* Sheldon’s going to make noodles from rice flour by grinding his own Carolina gold rice rather than buying rice flour – but the rice noodles aren’t forming. He ends up adding more rice flour and some tapioca starch, which is a strong thickening agent and often found in gluten-free recipes and wheat-flour alternatives.

* Brooke is braising her pork shoulder in cola in a pressure cooker. Braising liquid tends to reduce a lot over the course of cooking, so anything in the cola, like the sugar or the various acids, will end up concentrated in the resulting dish.

* Tesar’s making a fairly simple seafood dish with clam broth, coating his fish in what he’s calling a “soo-frito,” but which looks to me like a made-up mirepoix of onions, garlic, and bell peppers. He says he’s leaving the peppers unpeeled because he doesn’t want the peppers to turn too soft in the pan. Really, this is a saute of aromatics, which is fine, just not what he’s calling it.

* The diners are Ken Oringer, Renee Erickson, Sean Brock, Milliken, and Solomonov. That’s some serious heavy hitters at one table. I’ve been to a couple of Oringer’s places, both of Brock’s Husk spots, Milliken’s Border Grill, and Solomonov’s Dizengoff. They’re all pretty fantastic.

* The food: Tesar serves “soffrito”-topped scallops with braised leek “sea broth.” He says he kept it simple, with very few ingredients, and wanted to get the sense of the ocean into the dish. The broth has clam broth, butter, lemon juice, and green Tabasco. Brock says it captured the ocean. Tom doesn’t like that John didn’t peel the peppers, which produced a real bitter note in the dish. (I’m not sure what the process is here, though – do you scorch the peppers to get the skin off?)

* Shirley made oil-poached grouper with meat-and-bone herbal tea consomme, collards, and cracklings. She says she combined her heritage with Charleston cooking. Tom says it “should be a signature dish.” Brock says “I’d really like for you to open a Chinese soul food restaurant in Charleston.” Chinese soul food sounds like something I would greatly enjoy.

* Brooke isn’t in love with her dish; she wanted to make it beautiful and it’s not, saying she wished she’d had more time to “fine-tune.” She serves braised pork shoulder and tenderloin on smoked island sweets, with braised radishes and egg yolk. MSM loves the radishes and greens. Gail loves the texture. The egg yolk nods back to a challenge earlier in the season. But Brock doesn’t like the texture of the sous-vide tenderloin and everyone seems to agree the cola’s sugars became too concentrated and overpowered other notes in the dish. I really don’t like cooking with sodas for this main reason – to me, it’s like cooking with full-sodium boxed chicken or vegetable broth. You’ve taken away my ability to control a central taste (salt) in a way that I can’t dial down unless I dilute everything.

* Sheldon made Carolina rice chow fun with pork belly, okra, annatto seed, and turkey neck broth. Brock says it’s “insanely good. … you should be proud that Tom ate the okra.” Later says “I’m going to steal that technique” of making noodles from the Carolina gold rice.

* It’s clear that nobody failed this time around; Brock says he was “pretty blown away” by the whole meal.

* The top two were Shirley and Sheldon, so they’re through to the finals. Sheldon wins – of course he does, he made fresh pasta!

* It sounds like Tesar’s was really good except for the pepper skins. Padma asks if he “worried it would be too simple.” Brooke’s dish was comforting, with “homey” flavors, but the sous-vide may not have been necessary given how small pork tenderloin is, and the dish was a little too sweet. I find pork tenderloin kind of boring; it is very easy to cook, as long as you don’t overcook it, but it’s really lean, doesn’t have the flavor of shoulder or belly, and the texture is kind of bleh. For me, that cut is entirely about what’s around it on the plate.

* Brooke is eliminated. The season-long favorite goes down.

* Tom reminds her that “I will see you in LCK,” to which Brooke says “yeah, shut up.”

* Of the remaining chefs, I’d rank them Sheldon, Shirley, Tesar. One of Brooke or Casey will rejoin the group in Mexico; I’d probably still slot Brooke in at 1 if she wins Last Chance Kitchen, and Casey behind Shirley if she wins.

Klawchat, 2/9/17.

My latest boardgame review for Paste covers The Blood of an Englishman, an asymmetrical, two-player card game based on the Jack and the Beanstalk story.

You can preorder my upcoming book, Smart Baseball, on amazon, or from other sites via the Harper-Collins page for the book. Also, please sign up for my more-or-less weekly email newsletter.

Klaw: There was music in the cafes at night and revolution in the air. Klawchat.

Ryan: Cubs traded for Alec Mills yesterday, is he a starter long term?
Klaw: Yes. Opinions I’ve heard range from okay fourth starter (so, think a little below league average) to swingman. I think he’s probably a decent fifth starter option, which the Cubs needed. Nothing really exciting.

addoeh: My favorite Dylan song! Would she change it all if her hair was still red? Starting pitching depth the biggest concern of the Cubs? Top four is set. Fifth, and in case of injuries beyond, not so much.
Klaw: I think acquiring Mills gives them at least 3 viable options for the fifth spot with him, Anderson, and I guess Montgomery (who I still think is better suited to relief). The issue is as you said that they’re not well set up to fill an extended opening in the front four.

Steve: Very much agree on your ranking for Quantrill. Not a lot to there to not like. How soon before we see him in the majors? Late 2018 too aggressive?
Klaw: On stuff/command it’s not too aggressive, but I imagine his workload this year will be heavily restricted, and that may push his debut further back even if he doesn’t suffer any further injuries.

Dan: You said in the last Klawchat that if you knew you’d be in this industry you wouldn’t take the same education path. What would you study if you could go back?
Klaw: I’d major in applied math and take a bunch of foreign language classes, because I love all of that stuff and would have enjoyed college much more had I done so.

guren: I seem to recall reading somewhere (on Twitter?) that you will not be providing the narration for the audiobook version of Smart Baseball. Was this your decision? I personally would be more inclined to purchase the audiobook if you were the narrator, but rest assured I will still purchase the hardcover book.
Klaw: Publisher’s decision. Not sure I have a good voice for that, and of course there’s a time commitment involved too.

jay_B: Do you think Jeimer Candelario has a MLB-regular future? Tough to tell from your capsule on him but it doesn’t sound great.
Klaw: Yes, but not with the Cubs. I have seen him very bad at 3b. Other scouts claim he’s better than that.

J: In the past couple years, I feel like you’ve been ahead/higher on a couple guys who are now moving up lists in general – thinking of Alex Verdugo and Kevin Newman specifically. Not a compare/contrast to others’ work, but do you think there’s anyone who fits that description this year?
Klaw: I haven’t compared my list to Mayo/Callis’ yet but I imagine we have some wide differences. I probably had Quantrill a lot higher?

Marky Mark: Why is one 6 WAR player more valuable than 2 3 WARS
Klaw: Because roster spots are scarce.

Cory: Lots of positive press about Hunter Greene going #1 to the Twins in the draft. Why should the Twins take someone other than Greene?
Klaw: Because high school pitchers are a high-risk class, and this draft has several college players who are 1-1 worthy.

Paul: Bundy bringing back the cutter this season. Reason for optimism or added risk to the injured wing?
Klaw: I think it’s good for Bundy, but he wore down badly at the end of the summer and already had shoulder damage before the season. I don’t think the cutter adds to that concern, but I’m bearish on him staying healthy.

Nick: Rhys Hoskins, Dominic Smith, Rowdy Tellez. Hoskins is 23 w/ a lot of question marks for me. But Tellez and Smith are both 21, I would argue Tellez had a far superior 2016, both were in AA. How is Smith a top 30 guy, and Tellez nowhere to be found? Also like the Tellez is 6’4″ instead of Smith’s 6’0″. Thoughts?
Klaw: I dispute that Tellez had a “far superior 2016,” since NH is a very good park for LH pull power hitters. Smith’s a much better pure hitter, able to hit velocity Tellez can’t touch, and is a much better defender at first (Tellez is more likely a DH).

Joe: Keith, do you have any opinion on the Bart Hubbuch saga?
Klaw: I’m not familiar enough with that NY labor law to have an opinion.

ND republican: I’m not a fan of Trump in the slightest, but just curious if the republican nominee would’ve been Romney instead of Trump, would you still have voted Clinton?
Klaw: It depends on which Romney – the 2012 nominee version, or the Massachusetts Governor version (for whom I did vote back in ’04 or whenever that was).

Andres Alvarado: Hey KLAW, I’m at work and won’t be able to log on today, so I’m taking a sec to send in my question. Hopefully I can get you to answer and read up on it late. What do you think of the full LP by Ten Fé? It finally released!!
Klaw: Liked it quite a bit, although all the best songs were the ones we’d already heard as singles.

Ted: What is your assessment of Bobby Dalbec and was he close to making your top 100?
Klaw: Power over hit right now, never had a consistent stance or swing in college. 70 arm at third. Not close to the top 100; wasn’t even on my predraft top 100 after he had a horrendous spring with an unacceptable K rate.

Andy: I know you place emphasis on depth in ranking the farm systems, but I’m having a hard time understanding how the Indians, with two top 100 guys (and a couple more HMs) are next the the Red Sox, who still have so much elite talent. How deep/shallow are the relative systems that they can be so close? Is this almost anomalous?
Klaw: I think you answered it – after Boston’s top 4 guys there’s a big dropoff.

Adam: Is there a team whose 11-20 is better than another’s 1-10?
Klaw: No. I get this question pretty much every year, BTW, and I don’t think I’ve ever answered “yes.”

Adam: Jacob Nix is consistently ranked 6 or 7 on most Padres prospect lists. Could you expand on what Padres fans can dream on in regards to him?
Klaw: Potential #2 starter. Three pitches, good delivery, control already there.

Tyler: Keith, you left guys like Dietrich Enns and Jordan Montgomery off of your Yankees prospect list. Both guys dominated AA-AAA last year. I understand that success in the minors does not translate to the pros and that there are so much that goes into it. (1) Can you give a brief explanation why they are ranked so low to give me a better understanding and (2) can I expect to see them get called up during the season to fill a back end starter role with the Yankees rotation being so thin? Thanks.
Klaw: I don’t think either is a big-league starter, so what are they then? Middle relief options? I think guys like those are a dime a dozen, and while a few will end up having big-league value – an unexpected velocity spike, a new pitch, magic pixie dust – I don’t see anything to separate them right now from all the other similar guys in the upper minors.

Nelson: When scouting, do you take all height/weight listings with a grain of salt? If Fransisco Lindor is listed at 190lbs, hes gotta be the strongest skinny person Ive ever seen
Klaw: I ask teams if I think a listed height/weight is wrong. Often public sites still have info from when the player signed or was drafted.

Ben (Washington, DC): In your review of “The Blood of an Englishman” you mentioned that you hadn’t come close to the 30 minute suggested game time. Does this mean it took you longer or shorter to get through a game?
Klaw: Much shorter. We finished in 15-20 minutes every time.

Jesse: Are there any board games currently in the 101-150 range that could move way with a good season?
Klaw: Nicely done.

Michael: I’ve never been political until now, but in the last month have called and written by Senators/rep, attended a town hall, called Congress to oppose Bannon.What I can’t comprehend is how each party isn’t up in arms that Trump is blatantly and brazenly profiting off the office. How is this not a bigger deal? It violates the constitution and our basic principles of democracy.
Klaw: I think today’s Kelly Anne Conway exhortation to buy Ivanka products is a bellwether. She appears to have violated a federal law. If the Republicans won’t support an effort to charge her, well, then you’ve got your answer.

Pei: What happened to Gordon Beckham? Went from projected star to utility player almost overnight it seems
Klaw: I flip-flopped on him – was way out after seeing his swing when he was a sophomore, he had a huge junior year and easily a dozen people told me I was wrong, so I figured hey, maybe he’s like Hunter Pence and can hit with that huge hitch. So I was right, and then wrong. Anyway I think that’s the explanation – he never could get over the hitch and get the bat to the zone on time.

Nelson: Gleybar Torres held his own at a young age, but didnt really break out last year unless you consider the AFL. Why the big surge in your rankings?
Klaw: He spent most of the year in Myrtle (great pitchers’ park) and then some in Tampa (good pitchers’ league in general) and hit for more power with a higher walk rate. I think that’s a breakout.

Nelson: Not all republican senators are dummies, so how can you explain them voting in DeVos? Are the afraid of going against Trump? Against Ryan?
Klaw: I assume so. Follow the party line and you’ll get something that matters to you down the road? I think the majority of Congresspersons operate that way.

Elf: What are your thoughts on Daniel Murphy getting close to repeating last year’s numbers? An ESPN cohort of yours has an article saying yes, but uses a lot of loathsome phrases like “eye test” and “lineup protection” to make his argument.
Klaw: I guess it depends on “getting close” but I’d bet the under. He set career highs in BABIP and ISO last year, and while there’s some mechanical explanation there, there was almost certainly some good fortune involved too. If you offered me three choices for his performance in 2017 – his 2015 line, his 2016 line, or right down the middle of those two – I’d take the third option.

Freddie Gibbs: Have you ever seen Oscar De La Cruz pitch?
Klaw: Nope. He hasn’t pitched that much due to injuries. But after I listed him as a Cubs sleeper a scout I know texted me to say he approved of that choice.

Geno: Appreciate all of your hard work Keith. What are your thoughts on the Alec Mills for Donnie Dewees swap? Thanks!
Klaw: Mills I discussed earlier. Dewees can run and put the ball in play but has no power and a 20 arm. I don’t think you can use him in CF, so what is he? Bench bat?

John Liotta: Will you be updating your KLaw Top 100 novels soon? This year?
Klaw: I think I’m due, but of course last year was crazy busy so it wasn’t a priority. I need to update my iOS boardgame apps list too.

Ben: Is AJ Minter being a bit overhyped with people saying he’s best braves reliever prospect since Kimbrel? Or is he really that good?
Klaw: Wildly overhyped because people are scouting the stat line.

HugoZ: So which is worse, the seven-inning game, or a runner on second to begin extra innings?
Klaw: The seven inning game might end me as a baseball fan.

Tim: I believe you have contested the idea that PEDs led to the spike in offense during the 1990s/200s. I think part of your reasoning is lack of evidence. But what level of proof are you looking for? If the standard was simply more likely than not – such as in a civil case – would that change your opinion? Asking because it seems your belief is based on a lack of scientific evidence, which is a pretty high standard of proof.
Klaw: Offensive levels spiked very quickly from 1992 to 1993, so unless you think everyone started using the good shit all at once, the PED explanation doesn’t pass even your “more likely than not” test. I’m sure PEDs were part of it, but they don’t suffice as the whole explanation or even a major part of it. Just to be clear, though, my issue with steroids/HGH/similar drugs is that we don’t know what their effect on performance is or was, so trying to say “well, this guy wouldn’t be a Hall of Famer without them” is pseudointellectual masturbation. We just don’t know, and we can’t know, so it’s a waste of time.

Andrew: Bummed Ohani won’t be playing in the WBC. Or exhibition games so who cares?
Klaw: This killed my number one reason to watch. I shouldn’t say that, I guess, because I love the concept of the WBC, but he was the main attraction for me.

Frank: Can we finally agree that if the Marlins, one of the worst run baseball teams are actually going to sell for 1.6 Billion that no owner is ever allowed to cry poor again and ask the public to pay for a stadium.
Klaw: We can agree but voters will derp every time they’re asked for a “bond guarantee” or some other euphemism for a handout.

Nelson: Any interest in the Twin Peaks re-boot coming out in May?
Klaw: I liked TP season one back in the day, but I think 2-3 episodes into season 2 it petered out completely. I’ll wait and see what Sepinwall etc. say about it. I did record Legion last night so that might be my next new series.

Tim (KC): KLaw – Thoughs on the Minor League implementation of having a runner start on 2nd base for every extra inning? (And possible MLB implementation?) Personally, I feel it is stupid as they are fixing something that is not broken… I mean extra- innings are a gift. MLB wants people to get their sleep in the playoffs I guess?
Klaw: Agree. It’s a solution in search of a problem. And was anyone complaining about how WS game 7 played out?

Matt: Why do the Mets feel the need to take guys like Anthony Kay in the draft who projects as a 5th starter when they seem to crap out an Ace every other year?
Klaw: I thought he projected as more than that.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Which is more foolish: the 4-year/5-year deals to Melancon, Jansen, et al; or what the Nats are doing: rolling the dice on Kelley, Glover, Treinen, et al.
Klaw: The long-term deals. I think there’s a closer in that mix for Washington – Glover has the stuff and aggressiveness, just not the command – and that Rizzo has played this out very wisely.

Sam: Javier Lopez retired yesterday. Greatest LOOGY of all time? If nothing else he helped define one of the best baseball terms ever.
Klaw: He retired as the best MLB pitcher to ever come out of UVA by WAR.

Johnny: Is Victor Robles pronounced “Rob-LES”, or “Ro-blay”
Klaw: ROBE-less, like he left his robe at home.

Dave M: Are you a fan of Philip Roth? Have you read American Pastoral or Portnoy’s Complaint?
Klaw: Read both and didn’t love either. I think I particularly dislike Zuckerman the character, and in AP, the scene where Swede sees his daughter again and doesn’t attempt to physically rescue her is unfathomable to me.

Marty: Do you have any thoughts on the Eddie Butler trade for the Cubs?
Klaw: If healthy, he’s got great shit. I’d take that flier and see if it was either the injury or the altitude that killed him.

Jobu: Hi Keith. Thanks for your recommendations of coffee roasters. I’ve really enjoyed several of their selections. Any Boston/Cambridge are roasters you’ve had in the past that you’d recommend?
Klaw: I haven’t been to George Howell but he’s a legend in third-wave coffee and I want to try his stuff out this summer.

Matt: if you had to put odds on Frankie Montas sticking as a starter, what would it be? 1/10?
Klaw: Yep, that sounds about right. Lacks the third pitch or maybe even a good enough second one, the command, or the body.

Ron: Hi Keith- If Buxton is up all of 2017 and is the full-time CF for the Twins, Where would you rank his arm among CF in both leagues? One of the best or above average? Hope he can hit decent and get on base. Packs a lot of wallop in that frame!
Klaw: It’s at least a 70 arm. He’s a legit 5 tool guy, and regular readers know I hate when that term is thrown around loosely.

Jer: How far would have had to list the Mets prospects to have Tim Tebow? 316?
Klaw: Maybe 23.2.

Alec: What do you think of raising the minimum wage? Every time this comes up–as it has in my state now–it makes me angry. I feel it’s just catering to a high voting base, and anyone with any sense sees it does nothing good–creates job loss due to higher costs, raisers prices, puts businesses out of business, etc.
Klaw: The academic research on the subject doesn’t favor your appeal to common sense argument; its effects on employment are mixed, at least. Doesn’t it also depend on the new wage level? Raising from $7 to $8 won’t have the same effects as raising from $7 to $15.

Jay: PECOTA projecting the Dodgers to win 98 games (and score more runs than most AL teams) with mostly the same roster (except Forsythe) which had among the worst wOBA against lefties in all MLB?
Klaw: Does PECOTA consider platoon splits? I don’t know the answer.

Rick: I heard an explanation that Otani can’t pitch and play the outfield on “off” days because of the throwing that outfielders have to do, so what about using him as a DH in between starts?
Klaw: Yes, you definitely want your ace to miss 4-6 weeks after straining an oblique muscle while swinging the bat as a DH.

Lyle: Did the Mariners get enough in return for Gohara?
Klaw: His stock was way down, so while I prefer Gohara, I understand their side of the deal.

Tim (KC): RE: 90’s and 2000’s power surge: 4 Expansion teams in the 90’s… which means more pitchers to pitch those increased number of innings/games. Basically, the talent level of the average pitcher decreases due to the increase in pitcher spots to be filled from what is a finite supply of quality pitchers.
Klaw: Yes, also very true – we’ve seen outlier individual seasons in every expansion year, I believe, including 1961 and 1998. And new ballparks, some of which played more hitter-friendly than the parks they replaced.

Mike: Why is PECOTA consistently way off on the Orioles? For example projecting 71 wins this season. Underrating the bullpen?
Klaw: Again, I can’t answer anything about PECOTA. I would say that they project to have one of the worst rotations in baseball (again) and that their offense is almost certain to be worse this year after a career year from Trumbo and no apparent upside there. And can Britton possibly match what he just did? I’ve long been a big believer in his stuff, but I could never predict any pitcher to put up a year like that.

Mike: Any business that claims it will go out of business because it had to pay a higher minimum wage was going to go out of business anyway. Seriously, if you build your business on having the cheapest possible labor, you are just wasting your time and money.
Klaw: if you build your business on having the cheapest possible labor, you can become Secretary of Labor!

Zac: Is Lucas Erceg a guy you could see “vaulting” up your rankings with a strong season?
Klaw: I was pretty aggressive with him this year. Lowest drafted player (2016) on my top 100, I believe.

Jim: When you say a player might get too big for SS, do you really mean too slow? If a guy got bigger but could maintain his lateral quickness somehow, wouldn’t he be just as good or better?
Klaw: Slow would imply foot speed; I’m talking about agility and yes lateral range. Rare is the guy who can get bigger without losing either or both of those.

Anonymous: Does Houston really NEED to add a starter? Where do you rank a Keuchel/McCullers/McHugh trio, given the play near their “reasonable expected level,” whatever that is? Do Musgrove/Martes/Morton/Fiers round out a solid enough 4-5? I feel like the rotation is very middle of the pack, could be top 10, or bottom 10 also though.
Klaw: Need, no. Would help, yes. I don’t think you can reasonably expect 25 starts from McCullers, but I think they have five other solid starter options. Adding Quintana would still be a 3-win upgrade though.

Scott: Any good Environmental/Climate Change organizations that you recommend donating to?
Klaw: I haven’t given to any yet – so far it’s been Human Rights Campaign, ACLU, and a lot to our local food pantry, Food Bank of Delaware.

Mitch: Youve said before that you voted Republican in the past. May I ask which GOP candidates you voted for? Reagan?
Klaw: I’m too young for Reagan; my first Presidential election ballot was 1992. I’ve voted GOP at all levels – mentioned Romney above, voted against Ted Kennedy every ballot I had, etc. Last year, however, I was straight-line Democrat, and I won’t vote GOP again until this strand of white nationalism is out of the party.

Tristan: The Blue Jays aren’t exactly blocking Dalton Pompey with their planned platoon of Carrera & Upton. Can he still be a long-term asset, with speed and defence, even if the bat never fully blooms? He’s still young and has upside. What’s your take on his future?
Klaw: Still think he’s got value. Obviously came up too soon, had a hard time adjusting, but the talent that made him a top 100 guy is all still there.

Joe: Kevin Gausman had, in a lot of ways, one of the 15 best seasons of any AL starter last year. Is there another step for him to take?
Klaw: Yes, sort of. I think he started to take that step in the second half. Breaking ball was consistently better after he moved back towards the middle of the rubber.

Liberal Fringe: am I paranoid waiting for Trump’s Reichstag?
Klaw: Nope.

Nelson: Ever been to Iceland? Have any recommendations?
Klaw: I have. Go to Gullfoss. Breathtaking.

Alberto, Dom. Rep.: Hi Keith. What’s your interest level in the WBC? and what are your thoughts on it? Here in Latin America we take it very seriously but it sure doesn’t seem that way in the States.
Klaw: This is why it matters – it’s good for marketing the game in Latin America and east Asia. I don’t ever want the US to win because that defeats the tournament’s whole purpose.

Greg: So you don’t think Minter is elite RP prospect since people who are really high on him are just scouting the stat line?
Klaw: Strawman. I don’t think he’s an elite prospect because I’ve seen him and don’t evaluate him that way. Really, did you think you had a point with this question?

Ridley Kemp: The governor of Texas is actually trying to foment a constitutional convention and bring back nullification and has taken to use the phrase “You’re fired!” As bad as things are in D.C., they could always be worse, huh?
Klaw: Just leave us Austin and Texas can go back to being its own country.

Santino: Are you going to do your “breakout players” under 25 this year? I truly tried to look up the schedule that was posted a while back but could not dig it up.
Klaw: Two separate pieces. Breakouts in March. Top players under 25 I don’t know.

Bulgakov: What do you make of the recent paucity of African American big league catchers? Ever since Charles Johnson last played 12 years ago, I think only Russell Martin (technically Afro-Canadian) is the only one to log significant, if any, playing time. Do you think there’s a bias somewhere along the line that keeps African Americans away from the backstop position?
Klaw: I don’t even see African-American HS catchers very often, so if there’s a bias (likely) it may be happening even before scouts see these kids. Martin was a converted infielder, too.

Dave: Klaw, on raising the minimum wage, wouldn’t the higher minimum wage lead to less need for welfare, etc which could lead to tax breaks for businesses offsetting the raise? Or am I delusional…..
Klaw: It’s a very complicated economic question. It’s not as simple as drawing a supply and demand curve. And a fair minimum wage in NYC would be a lot more than a fair minimum wage in Utica.

Andy: Based on various terrible laws, will that impact your traveling to see prospects this year?
Klaw: I don’t think so, although where I have discretion I’ll try to see certain players on the road (e.g., JB Bukauskas) to avoid spending extra money in states with discriminatory laws on the books.

Chris: Wondering if you have seen the 13th on Netflix? It seems like the white nationalism has been in the Republican party since it migrated from the Democrats in the 60s. Amazing that some people think the impact of race is in this country is overstated. It has defined politics in this country since the beginning.
Klaw: This is next on my watchlist.

Ethan: Have you ever read or spoke with anyone at Pirates Prospects? I value their work on Pittsburgh minor league system and was just wondering if you had any reason to ever come across it?
Klaw: Spent some time with Tim last March. Really enjoyed my chat with him.

Stan: Higher wages don’t lead to less welfare. Less welfare would be the result of forcing people to choose a way to support themselves outside of welfare. The old “work or starve” analogy.
Klaw: Actually, the best way to get people off welfare is to cut welfare. We tried that c. 1995 and it worked fantastically.

Hank: As a Twins fan, I fear that Miguel Sano is going down the Chris Carter path. I still believe, but I also think this year is a make or break year for him….as far as for the Twins, not for his career by any means. Do you think he can improve and be the star everyone thought he would be?
Klaw: I think he’s a better hitter now than Carter ever was.

Nathan: Percent chance Glasnow reaches his upside?
Klaw: A year ago I would have said over 50%. Now, maybe 30-40%.

Scott: Do you think Manaea has the durability to become a #2?
Klaw: I’m not sure he has all the elements to be a #2 (someone who’s ranked somewhere between, say, 20 and 50 in MLB). I feel better about saying he’ll most likely end up a #3, with a fairly small chance to be more.

Henry: I am intrigued by the welfare question. Welfare is a lifestyle for many, even if most on it are struggling to survive. There are simply people who choose the path with the least amount of responsibility attached. So, if you want to get the most people off of welfare, the best way is to eliminate welfare so that people have to find other ways to feed themselves and their dependents.
Klaw: What ways would you suggest they find? You can tell them to get off welfare and get a job, but what if there isn’t a job there for them? Who takes care of their kids? How do they get to/from work? What if they’re physically unable to work? What if it’s more lucrative for them to do something illegal? And is welfare really “a lifestyle for many?” I fully understand the economic disincentives of handouts, but let’s not pretend this issue is as simple as “get a job.”

Ethan: Making Shrimp Po Boys and can’t decide what to serve with it; any suggestions?
Klaw: Something with acid. Fresh cole slaw?

Andy: The problem with the “work or starve” mentality, is that some people would starve, which creates a problem with crime/vagrancy, without even getting into the moral issues.
Klaw: And you have victims there – kids who are malnourished, perhaps otherwise abused, who then grow up to become financial burdens on the state. There’s a financial incentive to take care of these kids now, but there will be adults who take advantage of any such system.

Pat: I am very concerned about the Orioles’ cavalier approach to Bundy’s health. Last year, they set a 75 inning limit and blew way past it (he threw almost 110), and he wore down. Now going into 2017 they seem willing to let him loose with no innings limit. What gives?
Klaw: It became more important to make the playoffs (for one game, as the last entrant) last year than to protect him or Tillman going forward. I didn’t like the abrupt change in plans, and if I were publishing forecasts on individual players I’d adjust both pitchers down for 2017.

Patrick: What do you think are the best coffee(s) or types of coffee for cold-brewing?
Klaw: I’ve never cold-brewed. It’s all pour-over or espresso for me.

Joe: Some of these questions on welfare are borderline stunning in their cruelty. Is this what we’ve actually become?
Klaw: I’d just say they lack some compassion. Stories of “welfare queens” are generally unfounded. Any government program that transfers wealth to specific individuals or companies will be abused. You want to limit such abuse, yes, but there’s still a policy goal here, or several goals, that we can’t just throw away.

Timothy: An argument of fairness and striving for something. I’m college educated and make $17.50/hour, so why is it right for a fast food worker to make $15?
Klaw: Why does that fast-food worker’s wage matter to you? Is he holding your wage down?

CJ: As relievers are typically pitchers who can’t handle starting, do you think that a starter with non-traditional closer stuff – think Tom Glavine – would have been a dominant reliever?
Klaw: Relievers are often guys who couldn’t handle the starter workload, lacked the third or second pitch to start, lacked the fastball command to start, or got hurt. I don’t think Glavine, working with a lot of average stuff, would have been a dominant reliever.

Tim (KC): RE Immigration: When you over generalize a group of people (like say those on welfare) and give them a certain stereotype (they are all lazy and looking for a handout)… then you lead to further illogical thoughts like “let’s ban everyone from a specific country” or worse.
Klaw: I’d agree with all of this. I wouldn’t generalize any group – those on welfare, or those who pay the most into the system and thus end up supporting those on welfare.

Ridley Kemp: On Anthony Bourdain’s Part Unknown, he had an interesting discussion with Jiao Tong University who noted “The difficulty is that the technology is so advanced that we don’t really need that many people.” His premise was that there simply isn’t enough need for work to provide sustainable employment for everyone (or that there were too many people). Is there any reasonable solution to this problem that isn’t monstrous? That seems like a looming issue of almost global warming dimensions.
Klaw: That’s the argument behind a Universal Basic Income. I truly don’t know what to make of that – I think the arguments around it are too far beyond my education – but I agree that we’re going to face questions around finding sufficient employment for future generations, not because of immigration but because of automation.

Garrett: Speaking of converted catchers, you think Texas’ Josh Morgan makes it as a big league backstop?
Klaw: If he moves there permanently, I think he’ll be at least a 55.

BD: Not saying I agree with this, but the flipside to a guy like Bundy, is go ahead and “fire the bullets” so to speak, extract what value is there, as he is a ticking time bomb.
Klaw: Understood, but he and Tillman had worse results as they fatigued too.

Zach: Your response to the fast food eage question is everything. Just because someone gets a raise doesn’t mean it comes out of your pocket. I’m noy sure why people have a hard time understAnding that.
Klaw: The only time I’ve ever cared about what someone else was making was when it was someone in the same role as mine or one similar enough that it was useful in comparison for negotiations, or as a sign that I was underpaid and should leave the company.

Kyle: Re: Lack of black catchers; Do you think it could have something to do with the high price of catcher’s equipment? Not to over generalize, but anecdotally the majority of high-end african american players seem to have been either multi-sport athletes at some point, or came from inner city baseball leagues. Is the several hundred dollars requisite for a good set of gear a road-block for players who a) play several sports and don’t want to make a heavy financial investment in just one, or B) do not have the wiggle-room in their budget to afford to?
Klaw: I think that’s the argument, or at least an argument, why we don’t see enough black players in youth baseball, period.

Archie: Is there any single pitch that you think specifically causes injury to pitchers?
Klaw: No. I guess it’s possible the screwball does, but we have almost no samples to examine anyway. I think it’s less what you throw and more how you throw it.

Mikey: Are the Rangers mishandling Jurickson Profar? I realize he hasn’t been truly healthy but isn’t he being stifled by lack of playing time? Wouldn’t he make for a better fielding 2B than Odor, who by many metrics is below average?
Klaw: I would like to see Profar get 500 AB if healthy this year. Wherever it happens is fine with me. (But yes, I think he’ll be a better defender at 2b than Odor.)

Billy: Unintentionally, I think we have gotten to the crux of Trump’s Detroit campaign speech wherein he built on his immigration stance by saying the jobs illegals have been working will now be available for Americans, particularly those struggling in the inner city. Which begs the question….is it unreasonable to expect people receiving handouts to take available jobs in construction, agriculture, or other industries that they do not feel like working in?
Klaw: Many of those jobs require skills that the working poor or unemployed poor don’t have, or physical access they lack (you can’t tell someone living in the inner city, hey, go take a farm job).

Timothy: In some ways, yes, the fast food worker’s wage does affect me. As middle class, my wage does not go up, but doubling wages will affect what I have to pay for goods/services, thus lowering my spending power.
Klaw: I don’t believe that will apply at the lowest end of the income scale. The point of a “living wage” is to cover basic living expenses, which have relatively inelastic prices. Raising the minimum wage to $25 or $40 an hour might do so, because then you’re giving a whole new class of people disposable income they can use on nonessential items with greater price elasticity.

JR: Your response on wages reminds me of this excellent Louie CK quote: “The only time you look in your neighbor’s bowl is to make sure that they have enough. You don’t look in your neighbor’s bowl to see if you have as much as them.”
Klaw: Compassion. Pass it on.

Klaw: OK, that’s all for WelfareChat this week. I’ll be back next Thursday to do it all over again, and will have another Insider column up on Tuesday too. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions. I’m sorry I couldn’t get to more.

Louder than Bombs.

Louder than Bombs is the first English-language film from Norwegian filmmaker Joachim Trier, after his critically-acclaimed 2011 film Oslo, August 31st, which I found kind of unwatchable because it was … just … so … slow. But Louder than Bombs also garnered great reviews, has a treendous cast (four actors with past Oscar nominations, plus Golden Globe winner Gabriel Byrne), and made Will Leitch’s top ten films of 2016. It’s also free for Amazon Prime members, which meant I really had no good reason not to watch it.

Of course, it’s pretty great. It’s a very understated film, and often painfully quiet, but the story here really works and even takes advantage of those long silences. The performances are good across the board, and the film includes some clever dream sequences and re-enactments that introduce its only true dramatic elements. It’s certainly not for everyone – I don’t think I would have liked this movie twenty years ago, but now I have both age and patience I lacked back then.

Louder than Bombs looks at the aftermath of the death of Isabelle Reed (Isabelle Huppert, herself nominated for an Oscar for Elle this year) on her family, husband Gene (Byrne), not-large adult son Jonah (Jesse Eisenberg), and 14-year-old son Conrad (Devin Druid), who is the movie’s central figure because his grief, coupled with his apparent introverted nature, is the most obvious from the outside. All three men are hurting, but Conrad wears it on his sleeve a bit more, and his father and brother are unable to figure out how to help with him or cope with their own issues surrounding Isabelle’s death, which they believe, at least, was a suicide.

What works best in Louder than Bombs is the excruciatingly frail relationship Gene has with Conrad. Gene is flawed, aware of his flaws, but still a pretty reliable screw-up, and even continues to do so by having an affair with one of Conrad’s teachers (played by Amy Ryan). Conrad doesn’t know that his mother killed herself, or that she’d suffered from depression, which you’d think would be relevant given that he too may be showing signs of the same illness. He’s a little bit of a stock character – the sullen teen who hides in his room and plays video games – but there’s some complexity there that becomes apparent later in the film.

Jonah is the least well-developed of the three men in the movie, a functioning adult with a wife and newborn child, but whose marriage isn’t what it seems and who is more than willing to rekindle an old flame when he returns to his hometown to help his father go through Isabelle’s papers and files. He’s dealing with his own grief by compartmentalizing it, and thus stands in the way of his father (who might be too impetuous) telling Conrad the whole truth about their mother, because doing so might force Jonah to confront the full reality of her suicide. The film doesn’t delve into Jonah’s emotions the way it does Conrad’s or Gene’s, which is only a shame because Jonah himself could have been a more interesting character, especially if we saw why it seems like he’s acquired some of the less desirable personality traits of both his parents.

Huppert plays Isabelle’s depression in the film’s many flashbacks as a sort of sleepwalking, awake but rarely present, with a vacancy in her eyes that may not be perfectly realistic but conveys the sort of emotional absence that depression gives the sufferer. I would have enjoyed seeing more of her performance, but the film isn’t really about her; revelations about her, many of which come about because her former colleague (played by David Strathairn, whose voice is just such a pleasure to listen to) is writing an article about her life, appear to show their effects on the survivors.

It’s hard to avoid a comparison to the other big grief movie of 2016, Manchester by the Sea, but the two films differ both in story and in performances. There’s no tour de force by anyone in Louder than Bombs, but there are also signs of marginal progress for the three men by the time the movie reaches its somewhat ambiguous conclusion. Where Casey Affleck’s character can’t escape his grief (and role within it), Gene and his sons might just move beyond theirs. It’s a little bit more hopeful, but just as compelling in its portrait of survivors struggling to cope with unthinkable, unexpected loss.

Stick to baseball, 2/5/17.

My organizational reports for all 30 teams, featuring at least ten prospects ranked for each club (and as many as 25), went up this past week for Insiders. You can find them all here on the landing pages for each division:

American League East
National League East
American League Central
National League Central
American League West
National League West

My list of thirty sleeper prospects, one for each MLB organization, for 2017 went up on Friday, wrapping up the prospect rankings package for the year. I also held a Klawchat on Friday.

For Paste, I reviewed the complex strategy game Forged in Steel, a citybuilder with some worker-placement and card management aspects that, once you get the first few moves underway, really gets going and manages to be both smart and fun.

You can preorder my upcoming book, Smart Baseball, on amazon, or from other sites via the Harper-Collins page for the book. Also, please sign up for my more-or-less weekly email newsletter.

And now, the links…

  • The must-read piece of the week – actually published in early January – comes from British journalist Isabel Hardman, who wrote about how even England’s vaunted NHS doesn’t do justice to people with mental illnesses, although the piece itself also provides a great window into her own difficulties recognizing what was happening to her and getting properly treated.
  • It’s Super Bowl Sunday! If you wouldn’t let your kids play football because it’s dangerous (and has led to the premature deaths of many players), is it moral to still watch the NFL?
  • I thought this New Yorker profile of Evan McMullin, who has emerged as a major Trump critic from the center-right was both an excellent piece of balanced journalism and a good window into someone who, even though I disagree with him on a couple of major policy issues, speaks very clearly to my concern that the man in the Oval Office – well, that man, and the one pulling his strings – needs to be stopped.
  • The batshit insane people who claim Sandy Hook was a hoax believe Trump’s election furthers their cause. I’m just glad these hoaxers are facing legal consequences when they harass relatives of the deceased.
  • As if Betsy DeVos’ awful answers in her confirmation hearing and embrace of creationism and other anti-science bullshit weren’t enough to disqualify her from running the U.S. Department of Education in everyone’s eyes except, well, our President and 50 Senate Republicans, she’s also a major investor in an utterly useless pseudoscience business of neurofeedback that claims it can use brain waves to diagnose and treat autism, depression, and why are we even talking about this it is such obvious bullshit? If you have a U.S. Senator who is planning to vote for DeVos – that’s every Republican right now except Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Sue Collins (Maine) – get on the phone on Monday morning, or send a fax, or go to their offices and make it clear you want a no vote on DeVos. One more Republican will end her candidacy, and while we aren’t guaranteed that the next nominee will be better, I’m not sure they can find one who’s worse.
  • You want more about DeVos being delusional in her belief in anti-science folderol? Look at her use of code words for creationism. While her camp has hidden behind the federal law and court rulings that intelligent design can’t be taught in public schools – it’s religion, thinly disguised as pseudoscience – that opens the door for her to push to change such laws, or challenge the court rulings, to suit her own misguided beliefs.
  • The House Science Committee is something between a joke and a modern-day Spanish Inquisition, thanks to its science-denialist head, Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas, where else?), and the new Holman Rule that allows House appropriations bills to target any federal employee and reduce his/her salary to $1. Boys, all you boys, you think you’re so American.
  • Is the white-supremacist (and possible fascist) Steve Bannon positioning himself to be the de facto President? Fifty Democratic Congresspersons have called for Bannon’s removal from the National Security Council, co-sponsoring a House bill that would ban political strategists from serving on the council. (Reports that the appointment requires Senate approval were false or at least incomplete.) Meanwhile, filings from Bannon’s second divorce include accusations that he failed to pay child support and was abusive toward his daughters.
  • I think this ProPublica piece has the wrong title. It’s not can the Democrats be as stubborn as Mitch McConnell, but will they? Of course they can, but so far, I see no signs that they well. Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley is prepared to lead a filibuster of Trump’s SCOTUS nominee Neil Gorusch, who’s filling a seat that should have been filled last year by Merrick Garland. (By the way, if you saw the claims that Gorusch had created a pro-fascism club while a student, those were false.)
  • Eric Trump’s business trip to Uruguay – that is, a trip to benefit the Trump family business, not on U.S. official business – cost the taxpayer over $97K in hotel bills. This is a good example of where the Democrats need to be obstructionist – Elizabeth Warren introduced a bill requiring him to divest, but even the Dems appear to have little interest in this fight.
  • How about that immigration order, now halted, that served as a de facto Muslim ban? The Archbishop of Chicago spoke out against it. The order stranded a Brooklyn doctor in the Sudan. VICE published a list of doctors and researchers thus barred from returning to the United States. Don’t you feel so much safer now?
  • Bloomberg published a short op ed that argues that Trump has failed his Wall Street and big business backers twice over, by putting all permanent resident employees at risk of deportation or refused re-entry, and by failing to repeal the Department of Labor’s fiduciary rule, which – get this – which requires financial advisers to act in the best interests of their clients in retirement accounts. I don’t know what’s worse: that Trump’s camp wanted to repeal the rule, or that the rule was ever necessary in the first place.
  • The farewell message from Tom Countryman (!), Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation, who was summarily dismissed along with five other State Department lifers last week, is well worth your time.
  • Who’s behind the fake-news site CGS Monitor, which uses real experts’ names in bylines on articles they didn’t write? It could be Russia – I mean, of course it’s Russia, right? – although this piece speculates it could also come from Iranian interests.
  • This post from “The Jester” on Russia’s infiltration of our federal government pissed someone off enough that the site was hit with a DdoS attack a few hours after the article went up. Within it, he points out that the ex-KGB/FSB official suspected of helping MI6 agent Christopher Steele assemble that dossier on Donald Trump was found dead in his car on December 26th, and the the author accuses the Kremlin of orchestrating his murder.
  • Republicans are further trying to rig the electoral college system in their favor by pushing blue states to adopt “proportional” electoral voting, which, as that FiveThirtyEight piece explains, means that Clinton could have won the popular vote by five percentage points and still lost the election.
  • A new law in Arkansas allows rapists who impregnate their victims to stop the latter from getting abortions, or a husband to sue to prevent his wife from doing so, and so on. Even setting aside the clear infringement of religious belief into law here, this is as blatantly anti-woman as you can get. I’ve got one state left to visit to be able to say I’ve visited them all, but you know, I think any trips to Arkansas can wait until they start to treat women like actual people. UPDATE: Snopes has more details on the law, such as pointing out that rapists can’t sue for damages, and that the law delays rather than prevents the abortions. The ACLU is still planning lawsuits.
  • Abortion is an important, sometimes lifesaving medical procedure, and keeping it legal and available reduces deaths from unsafe abortions, while improving access to abortion and contraception reduces abortion rates overall. Again, women are actual people, and the infamous photo of Trump signing an anti-abortion executive order while surrounded by men sort of says it all – and that’s why the photo of the Swedish Prime Minister trolling Trump is such a thing of beauty.
  • Protesters plan to shadow Trump whenever he travels so he feels their dislike, an extension of the idea that he thrives on public adulation.
  • The apparently random murder of a woman walking on a Reykjavik street after dark has shaken the city, which is known for its low crime rate and 24-hour party culture.
  • I tweeted about this earlier in the week, but donors across the country are helping pay students’ lunch debts. It’s such a little thing, and so easy to do if you have any cash to donate. We called our daughter’s school, asked how much it would take to clear any outstanding tabs, and wrote them a check. You’ll make a lot of families’ lives easier, and will reduce the shame these kids feel for something that’s no fault of their own.
  • The Brits have all the legislative fun: A Labour MP held up a sign saying “He’s lying to you” behind Nigel Farage in a televised address by the far-right UKIP leader.
  • The University of Nevada joins the growing list of NCAA football programs reneging on scholarship offers weeks or even days before the official signing day. I’m no lawyer, so I’ll ask the crowd: at what point does such an oral agreement become binding on either party?
  • I’d never heard of the Chinese delicacy fat choy, a bacteria that grows long, noodle-like strands, but it turns out its farming is harmful to the environment, and the Chinese government is now cracking down on its production and sale.
  • Recode has a long, fascinating interview with my former colleague Bill Simmons on The Ringer, the rise and abrupt end of Grantland, the demise of his HBO TV show Any Given Wednesday, and much more. I’m still not sure I get the mission of The Ringer; they’ve mixed some great sports content with some head-scratchers where they offer advice to the movie or music industry. But it’s early in the site’s history, and I’m 100% behind any site that supports good journalism and pays its writers.
  • I’m linking here to a piece I saw on Google’s home page (I think) but that I really thought was trash: you could read 200 books a year in the time you waste on social media. There’s a lot wrong with this piece, but let me highlight two things. One, not everyone is wired for the kind of sustained attention required to read a lot of books, and no one should make someone feel bad because s/he isn’t a book reader. I love finding fellow bibliophiles, but if you don’t read books, you shouldn’t feel guilty about it. Two, his math suchs. He says “typical non-fiction books have ~50,000 words,” which is wrong; that’s under 200 pages, and even Smart Baseball, which I did not want to be too long, runs over 80,000 words. He also says he reads 400 words per minute and assumes that most Medium readers will too; I doubt he reads that fast unless he’s speed-reading, which doesn’t work (you don’t retain what you read as well), because reading 400 wpm would mean reading about 80 pages an hour, which I think would put anyone at the far-right end of the scale for reading speed … or means he’s reading books written for children. I read a lot, and I read fast, and I doubt I read 400 wpm unless it’s something simple and incredibly engrossing, like genre fiction or a Wodehouse novel. So, yeah, if you don’t read 200 books a year or 100 or even 20, don’t feel bad. This article was just stupid.
  • Is the hunt for paid editors tearing Wikipedia apart from the inside? That seems a bit dramatic, but I think the mere existence of paid editors is cause to retain or recover our skepticism about the reliability of information found on the site.
  • From McSweeney’s: The Rules of This Board Game Are Long, But Also Complicated. I don’t understand why this is supposed to be funny.

Top Chef, S14E10.

I skipped last week’s recap and didn’t even see the episode until Wednesday night in my hotel room in Bristol. I don’t think there’s anything I have to say about it; the worst remaining chef went home, one of the top two remaining chefs won the quickfire and the other won the elimination challenge. And we didn’t see enough cooking. This week’s gives us a little more to discuss, at least.

By the way, the entire prospect rankings package finished up yesterday with the sleeper prospects for each team, from which you can link to all of the other content.

* Brooke is terrified of vomit. She’s also a parent. Those two things do not go together, as I was reminded again about a week ago.

* They’re all going shrimping. No word if they’ll be pimpin’ or B-boy limpin’.

* The shrimp they catch are just enormous. The chefs are eating them raw, which I think is gross (I’ve had raw shrimp, just once). This is after the episode was filmed, but the Carolina coast has had an unusually long shrimp season this year thanks to the warm waters (perhaps due to climate change).

* Quickfire: make a dish with shrimp. Oh, and it’s a sudden-death QF. My favorite kind.

* Sylva has to open a can with his $400 knife. Do they really have no can openers available?

* Shirley thinks she’s stoned from the motion sickness pills. I feel like we missed some good comedy from this.

* Sheldon wants shrimp with roe still in it, as if I weren’t already sufficiently weirded out.

* Several of the chefs used “sea beans,” which is the plant I knew as glasswort. They’re delicious – salty and crunchy and bright green.

* The dishes … Casey made red curry shrimp with coconut broth, tomato, grilled pineapple, and sea beans … Sylva made togarashi- and orange-marinated shrimp in light coconut broth with dill, orange juice, and mango … Shirley made garlic shrimp with charred sea bean and jalapeño .. Brooke served shrimp and clarified butter with pickled sea beans in a tomato seed vinaigrette … Sheldon made poached shrimp in tomato water with yuzu, radish, and sea beans; he also grilled the shrimp quickly with pine on the hibachi … Tesar made ceviche with lightly poached shrimp, with fennel, peppers, jalapeño, lime juice, and olive oil. Apparently it’s very spicy.

* The winning dish was Sheldon’s. The three worst were from Casey, Shirley, and Sylva, meaning they compete in the sudden death round. (So Tesar and Brooke are safe.) Casey’s was a tiny bit salty. Shirley’s could have used more finesse; the plate was messy and her shrimp was rubbery. Sylva’s was really salty.

* Sudden death QF: make a dish using the bycatch from the shrimp trip. There’s shark, squid, skate, and ling (similar to cod); Tom later clarified on Twitter that the shark was actually dogfish, which is sometimes called mudshark.

* Casey was definitely having the most trouble during the cooking process, if that meant anything. Shirley served grilled baby squid with roasted fennel, mirin, ginger, garlic, and chili broth. It was very “flavor-forward,” so now I guess we’re talking like Project Runway. Casey made charred squid with mushroom-soy broth, fennel, and radish. Tom called it an “umami-bomb.” Sylva made seared and butter-poached redfish with tarragon butter, tomato, red cabbage, fish sauce, and champagne vinegar. Tom says it was the most subtle of the three dishes. Casey’s eliminated; Shirley and Brooke are in tears. I kind of get it, because it’s a crappy way to get eliminated, but at this point in the series anyone can get bounced. Five chefs remain.

* Elimination challenge: Guest judge Dominique Ansel, the super-imaginative French chef who created the cronut. I don’t own his cookbook but I’ve seen it, and yes, the cronut recipe is in there. The chefs must make a brunch dish that mashes up breakfast and lunch. Tom mentions one of his restaurants serving a “foie-grasffle,” foie gras served in a waffle. I would probably just prefer the waffle by itself, thanks.

* Brooke won previously with a brunch dish, but of course she can’t make it again.

* There’s no prep time – two hours from start to service. That got a bit underplayed during the episode, because nearly every elimination challenge involves some prep on day one and then final cooking on day two.

* Shirley says she’s been making potstickers since she was four or five. She’s making her wrappers from scratch, which is no small task. But if she’s doing cheeseburger filling in a dumpling, where’s the breakfast element?

* Sheldon is shown unpacking premade frozen waffles, which is what got Kwame sent home last season, although it turns out that he’s got another idea for them.

* What the hell is Padma wearing on her head? Most of these women look ridiculous in those stupid hats but hers was particularly bizarre. (My daughter liked Gail’s, though.)

* The dishes … Shirley made beef and cheddar dumplings with bacon-tomato jam. The meat inside is a little dry, but Dominique likes the cheese inside the dumpling. (I can only assume that, when he said cheese in a dumpling was unusual, he was referring to Chinese or Japanese dumplings.) Gail likes the crispy bits from the bottom of the pan. She’s like the voice of the regular person here, who just wants the stuff to taste good.

* Sylva has to call an audible in the kitchen because … well, I’m not quite sure how he ended up where he did. He was going to make a frittata, which is cooked on the stove and finished in the oven, but I think he just ran out of time. His dish ends up as arctic char with a “fritatta” with morels, beet sabayon, and pancetta. It’s really a scrambled egg now. Dominique loves the fish preparation, but wishes it was more creative. Tom says it screams that he was struggling.

* Brooke’s plating isn’t working; she was going to make cups of yogurt that would hold her hibiscus-strawberry broth (like a soup), but cups she’s piping aren’t tight enough and she has to just pour the broth around the plate.

* She says her dish is a “play on a parfait.” She serves matcha and chia yogurt with hibiscus and strawberry broth and peanut butter crumble. Dominique can’t taste the matcha and says it’s not creative enough. Tom says liquid nitrogen “could have been your friend with this one.” Even if it was perfectly executed, though, I don’t think this would have hit the creativity or flavor marks they wanted.

* Tesar made an octopus hash with kimchi scramble, chorizo, and hollandaise. Tom misses the crispiness he expects in a hash, as does Dominique. It also doesn’t look very clean on the plate.

* Sheldon made Korean fried chicken with a compound butter of seaweed & oyster sauce and waffle crumble. He fried the chicken twice and then pressed it in the waffle iron. Dominique seems to love it, but wishes there was “a little bit more of the waffle.”

* Judges’ table: Sheldon and Shirley had the only dishes that worked. Gail said that Sheldon’s had the most flavor. But Shirley won. No one mentioned that her dish had nothing I’d call “breakfast,” other than that dim sum itself is a breakfast (or brunch?) style in Chinese cuisine.

* Tesar’s octopus and egg were cooked well, but the hash didn’t really work; he says he didn’t have time to conceptualize it. Brooke says she’s “embarrassed” that she wasn’t whimsical enough; the hibiscus ended up overpowering the matcha, and the presentation looked sloppy. Sylva says he couldn’t execute the frittata, although I still don’t understand why. The scrambled eggs he did serve were completely overcooked – you could see that on TV, where they looked like the separate piles of egg curds you get out of a hotel pan at a buffet.

* Padma didn’t get Brooke’s dish as a mashup. Tom thinks Sylva overcooking two elements is the bigger sin. Gail agrees with Padma. Tesar cooked everything well enough to be safe.

* Sylva is eliminated. I get it, given the dish, but man, would I have preferred to see him stay and Tesar go at this point.

* So we’re left with four veterans after all. Brooke may have just lost her biggest competitor; she’s still the favorite, followed by Sheldon and Shirley, then Tesar fourth. I haven’t kept up with LCK this year, but I saw Sylva didn’t make it out of the most recent round, so he’s officially done.

* This ep continued the season-long trend of not showing us enough of the actual cooking, although this time around, we did get more explanations of the finished dishes and there was legitimate drama in the kitchen to cover (as opposed to, say, Tesar and Katsuji bickering like schoolchildren). And unfortunately it looks like the next episode starts with that quickfire where the chefs give instructions to someone (a family member or friend) they can’t see, which is all gimmick and little cooking.

Klawchat, 2/3/17.

You can preorder my upcoming book, Smart Baseball, on amazon, or from other sites via the Harper-Collins page for the book. Also, please sign up for my more-or-less weekly email newsletter.

My last prospects piece went up this morning for Insiders, identifying one “sleeper” prospect from all 30 teams.

Klaw: The grabbing hands grab all they can. Klawchat.

Jeremy: How do you feel about the Cardinals’ punishment? Just right, not enough, too much? Also, where were YOU during the Bowling Green Massacre?
Klaw: I’m not sure how we could tell – it’s not as if we have any sort of precedent for this. It’s harsh, but it’s not the baseball equivalent of the NCAA death penalty. And it needed to be harsh, so I guess that means it’s just right? During the BGM, I was in bed, tweeting about my great TV ratings.

Ed: Does Joey Gallo still have former top 20 prospect value? Do you think TX is / has mis-handled him or he still has a shot?
Klaw: He’s no longer eligible for the list, still a very high-risk/high-reward guy. I do think they mishandled him in one way – when he was called up last year, he spent way too much time on the bench. He needs to play, specifically to get reps at the plate, if he’s going to turn into anything at all.

Mike: First of all I want to thank you for what you’re doing on Twitter. Most people with your type of platform don’t advocate. Spreading the message of resistance is very important. My question is do you think that the Cubs’ starting rotation in 2020 could be Hendricks, Cease, Clifton, Monty, and de la Cruz?
Klaw: You’re welcome. I don’t think that’s their 2020 rotation for a few reasons. One is that I’m sure they will add a veteran starter or two between now and then. The other is that you’re being quite optimistic on all those young guys – and Montgomery, whom I don’t believe can be an effective starter.

Jason: Keith, thanks for all the work you put into your rankings, etc. For Sandy Alcantara, is the development of a breaking ball what determines if he will be a reliever or starter for you? Can he be a No. 2?
Klaw: That’s his main developmental need, and fastball command is second. Pretty exciting package though. Number one upside.

Jason: Best guess…does StL get Cordoba back from Padres?
Klaw: There’s no reason to think he’s going to hit coming straight from the Appy League, so the question is whether the Padres are willing to carry him for a year and take zero offense (but maybe adequate defense) just to have him in their system? I could see that.

Gene Mullett: Who was your “gateway” band into grindcore? Did you tell us once it was Pitch Shifter?
Klaw: I don’t know Pitch Shifter. I wouldn’t say I’m a grindcore fan – I’m just aware of the genre. Carcass came out of that but ended up essentially founding melodic death metal, and that’s the genre I like.

Joe: I see all types of people on the internet stating that surely Trump won’t last four years. As someone with a grounded viewpoint, do you see this as hyperbole or an actual inevitability?
Klaw: I think there’s some wishcasting in there. If you want Trump out before 2020, then you’d better work for the Democrats to retake the House in 2018, and that’s no easy task. The current GOP has shown zero interest whatsoever in stopping the rollbacks of civil rights or of regulations set up to protect the public from corporate malfeasance.

Bill G: Keith, I want to thank you for all the hard work you do to deliver the prospect lists and information. Outstanding job! Question: I do not want to get into differences in player ratings between your list and those from MLB Pipeline, but are there philosophical differences at play here, or is this truly the “eye of the beholder”. Thanks!
Klaw: There’s one thing to bear in mind between our processes, which is that I rely more on my own first-person scouting than Jonathan and Jim do on theirs. It doesn’t make one better than the other, but it does make ours different.

Zach: I was almost certain the Pirates sleeper prospect was going to be Gage Hinsz, but Escobar a solid choice as well. What can Gage develop into?
Klaw: Every scout I asked who saw Hinsz said he projects as a reliever. Escobar has starter upside that Hinsz might lack.

Andy: What happened with Andy Marte (in his playing days?) I remember that he was a top prospect for years. It doesn’t seem like he had makeup issues. What caused him to be basically a non-entity as a pro?
Klaw: Raked in the minors, had a great swing, never had a big plate discipline problem. I’ve wondered about this myself, and I don’t know that he ever got enough of a chance in the majors – would other teams have just let him play through mediocre years, figuring he wasn’t a .250 BABIP guy forever? I mean, yeah, he struggled some with major-league breaking pitches, but a lot of guys do right out of the chute.

Nick: Keith, if Wilmer Difo was prospect eligible would he have had a shot at the top 100? Or is he kinda stuck in neutral until hes traded out of the logjam in DC? Thanks
Klaw: Two separate questions there. One, I don’t try to rerank guys who’ve lost their eligibility, just as a policy. Two, I don’t consider a prospect’s current status, such as being blocked by other players, when ranking him, so I would still rank Difo as a probable everyday middle infielder rather than considering him a bench guy because he’s stuck.

Horacio: Hi Keith, several weeks ago I asked you on Twitter if your book was going to be available on the UK. Your answer was that you didn’t know then and were going to find out. Do you have more info now? Looking forward to read it!
Klaw: It will be, and you can pre-order it on amazon.co.uk already.

Van: How can Jeren Kendall be at the top of so many lists when his K/BB ratio is so bad? Aren’t evaluaters worried about that? How does he stack up against someone like Corey Ray?
Klaw: Because K/BB isn’t the only thing that matters, and Kendall is a very toolsy player with power, speed, and defensive value – and while he strikes out more often than we want, he’s not undisciplined. He has more upside than Ray in power and defense.

Todd: A lot has been made lately of college students and recent graduates working for free in order to break into their desired field. I understand you went to Harvard and then got an MBA. I was wondering what was your own experience as you broke into baseball with Toronto?
Klaw: I wouldn’t get the MBA again if I’d known I’d end up in this career. I didn’t work for free in Toronto or ever, actually – I didn’t even take any unpaid internships in college, although at the time they were much less prevalent. I would never advise anyone to work for free, especially not if you have skills to offer.

Travis: I observed that Rio Ruiz didn’t make your Braves report. I admit to knowing nothing other than his stat line but it seemed solid if unspectacular at age 22 in AAA after a few years of inconsistency. Is there anything new to report on him from this past season and what do you think the future holds for him? Now on the 40 man with not much above him on the depth chart, it seems the opportunity is there if he can seize it.
Klaw: He’s a below-average defensive 3b without power. I don’t see what the value is there.

Paul: Hi Keith, I live nearby Stanford and college baseball is coming up. Are there any Standford players that could be drafted high this year or next year that I could focus on (instead of getting frustrated by Marquess 1950’s strategy)? Thanks!
Klaw: Tristan Beck for sure. Maybe Colton Hock.

Donald: when you say a kid is too young or too old for a league, what do you mean? what are the age ranges a kid should be in a league? I am in Fort Wayne with a Low-A team
Klaw: If a player is much older or younger than his competition, that’s going to affect his performance or how we evaluate it. It matters more for hitters than pitchers. Anyone over 20 in Fort Wayne is too old for the level, especially if he’s a college product.

JRG: Just wanted to say nice job on all the prospect work on ESPN – I really enjoyed it.
Klaw: Thank you. It’s exhausting, but this is truly why I do it.

Chris F: Hi Keith, I was surprised that Sandro Fabian didn’t get a mention in your GIants write-up. Is he too far away or do you not see him having above average regular potential?
Klaw: Both. I don’t shove short-season players into reports unless there’s something particularly notable about them, good or bad.

Smrt: I’ve seen a few articles marking Robbie Ray as a breakout candidate, mainly based on his strikeout rate last year. Do you buy that logic. Is Ray more than a mid-rotation guy?
Klaw: I had him as a breakout guy last year, and he sort of broke out, I think. But I don’t think this is strictly a matter of bad luck for him in 2016 that you forecast a big bump from better fortune.

Nick: You mentioned Moniak may be able to generate more power with some tweaks – is Moniak with 70/45 hit/power more valuable than 60/55? 60/50?
Klaw: If he’s got a 70 hit tool, you’ll live with 45 power. He’s not super rotational at the plate, but I wouldn’t change him to try to gain power and risk contact.

CP: For Top Chef, I feel this season (and to be honest, the last few) to be less food-focused and more on the “confessional camera” interview side. Which wouldn’t be as bad if the chefs are more likable or interesting. What do you think? Also, I am strongly against this season’s half returning chefs and half newbies. All new chefs gives viewers more people to learn about and possibly new food destinations to visit across the country.
Klaw: I agree with nearly all of this. The only thing I’d say in favor of the format is that Brooke is awesome and I’m rooting for her to win. Otherwise, no more mixed vets and rookies, please. (I haven’t watched last night’s ep yet.)

Mr. Pink: Eliezer Alvarez didn’t make your Cardinals list, but other lists have had him in their top 10. What are your thoughts on him and why doesn’t he make the cut for you? Thanks.
Klaw: I have no idea why “other lists” would do that. Scouting the stat line, I suppose.

Michael: How can you trust the information given to you about prospects when it is given by an employee of a club? They have a pretty big conflict of interest, even if they work for a different team from the player, no? I remember Ricciardi and other Blue Jay people making Curtis Thigpen out to be the next Craig Biggio…
Klaw: “Trust but verify” is a good motto. But in most cases these are relationships I have going back five to ten years, so there’s a level of trust I’ve established where I get more candor off the record than those public comments you might see. Plus, if someone’s always lying to me, I’ll figure it out.

Ken: The Nationals think Koda Glover might be able to close for them this year or soon after. What are your thoughts on him?
Klaw: Yes, I think that’s about right.

Nick: You have Jahmai Jones with potential 60 power but others have him with 45-50. Are these types of difference purely projection (aka preference)? In other words is there that big a difference between what scouts actually see at present?
Klaw: Again, no idea what “others” you mean. I know I saw him show off plus raw in HS, and he’s shown it some in pro ball. I don’t think it’s really debatable. We can argue over things like a hit tool, but a guy’s got power or he doesn’t.

Rod: Higher upside, Michael Fulmer or Sean Manaea?
Klaw: Fulmer.

Nelson: What type of player is Cole Stobbe ?
Klaw: Thought he was 4th-5th round talent, bit old for a HS senior, don’t love the defense or the power yet, but he hasn’t played a whole lot, coming from Nebraska (ergo short spring seasons). I don’t love being real definitive on lower HS position player drafts, because sometimes they get into pro ball and show us wildly different plate discipline than expected.

Mike: I face a dilemma; I used to be blissfully ignorant, never knowing anything past what ESPN had to say. Now, I’ve started to become slightly more informed about what’s going on in the world–which society seems to think is important I do–and now I’m just depressed. So, what’s better–to be ignorant and happy or informed and sad with nothing I can do about it?
Klaw: You can do something. You can call your elected reps regularly. You can attend their town hall meetings. You can donate to non-profits that fight for causes that matter to you. You can volunteer your time. I’m getting more involved myself because I’m disgusted with the state of the nation, not least because we are turning away from rational, science-based policies. I may not have an impact on anything, but I’m trying.

Sean: Any traction to the Robbie Cano comps for Isan Diaz?
Klaw: Cano is about two seasons away from being a Hall of Famer. I’m not hanging that on any prospect. And if I thought Diaz was Cano, he’d have been #1.

paul d.: Keith, getting an idea of college talent. Roughly, where would Kyle Wright rank on your Top 100? Thanks for all you do and the hard work!
Klaw: The first overall pick in the draft usually lands between 10 and 20 on my list. Last year’s, Moniak, was lower because that draft class didn’t have a clear best prospect, and I didn’t have him at #1 on my board before the draft.

Dusty: What do you think about Twins SS prospect Wander Javier. Does he have a chance to be a star?
Klaw: Think he’s a long, long way off. Less than even money he’s a shortstop for me. Swing was a mess when they signed him – power over hit for sure.

Nick: Long term, do you prefer Jeren Kendall over guys like C. Ray or K. Lewis? How does he stack up vs recent OF draftees?
Klaw: Definitely have him over Ray or Lewis now, or even comparing to those guys last January.

Henry: Keith, I have to admit the cover for your book seems a bit bland. I have no doubt about the quality of the prose and analysis but did you have a say in the cover?
Klaw: I did. You’re the first person to say anything negative to me about it.

Tony: Hey Keith, what would be your best advice to a young kid who is struggling to find his way in life? I’m a pretty young male and I see all my friends who know what exactly what they wish to major in at college, and I’m clueless. It’s depressing not to know, and it is a decision that keeps me up at night. I’ve had numerous sleepless nights over it. It’s absolute hell when relatives always pose the question and I’m always telling them, “I don’t know.” Just feels like they look at me like I’m some sort of failure for not knowing. How do I go about solving this problem? Are there any books you could recommend regarding the subject perhaps? It has reached the point where I legitimately don’t believe in myself that I’ll ever solve this problem. I’ve already spent my two years at a community college (which I’ve been on the Deans list every semester), but I’m still clueless. What do you think is the best way to solve this problem? Thanks Keith!
Klaw: Whoa, heavy question. I don’t think you actually have to know what you want to do in life right now – I didn’t start at ESPN till I was 33, at Toronto until I was 28, so I went a lot farther than you did without finding my career. But you would probably feel better if you figured out something you love to do, whether it’s a subject or a skill or even a hobby, and looked at pursuing that as a career, or even as a college major. I would have enjoyed college more if I’d just majored in stuff I liked.

Classiest Question Ever: I’ve read most of your work the last 7-8 years, and on a few occasions you’ve written or Tweeted the following about Michael Young: ‘Classiest double play ever’ (after he grounded into a DP), and ‘Total class on that E5’ (after he kicked a groundball). These may not be exactly what you wrote, but they’re close. My question is this: Is that a poke at MY himself (because maybe he’s not as classy and slick as his reputation suggests), or more of a dig at the fans/media folks who perpetuated that idea?
Klaw: A dig at the media who always talked about how classy he was, and who refused to acknowledge his declining skills because they felt he was just so classy.

Jeremy: In a recent interview, Tyler Glasnow mentioned that his stride length was too long causing him to land on his heel with his plant foot causing his stuff to fluctuate. He said he was going to shorten his stride a bit to correct the problem. I know you wrote that Tijuan Walker shortened his stride length and you believe that it had a negative effect on his stuff. Is it a bad idea for Glasnow to do this? I know from reading his perceived velocity was about 3mph faster do to his overwhelming stride length.
Klaw: If you’re not landing cleanly, your stuff and command will suffer. Shortening your stride is a problem if the result is short itself. If your stride is too long, you can shorten it a little without harm.

Jack C.: It seems as if many of the baseball writers I follow sway (actually, more than sway) to the left when it comes to politics. Now, it may just be coincidence that the people I follow and listen to have these viewpoints. From your perspective, does this seem to be the case? If so, why?
Klaw: I’m sure it’s true, because writers tend to be well-educated, with at least bachelor’s degrees and sometimes master’s, and the more education you have, the more likely it is that you lean left and/or vote Democrat.

Pat: Am I wrong to think that Dylan Cease is a reliever long term?
Klaw: You are wrong if you think there’s 0% chance he’s a starter. You’re not wrong if you think there’s more chance he’s a reliever, although i disagree.

Grant: I’ve recently decided to get into coffee. Up until this year I’ve been a folgers drip in a Mr coffee guy. I’ve been mostly cold and pour over brewing while manual burr grinding beans from a local roaster and of course its been awesome. I want to start learning about beans (this far I just ask roaster recs) but the subject seems so vast that I don’t know where to start, like a sandwich too big to bite into. Any suggestions on where to start?
Klaw: I think you’re doing exactly the right things. Just keep trying new stuff. That’s what I do, mostly.

JJ: Who are your early ROY favorites for 2017? I’m assuming Benintendi in the AL gets your vote.
Klaw: And Swanson in the NL.

mike R: I was somewhat surprised to see that you ranked josh bell higher than Margot given the opposing ends of the defensive spectrum. Are you that much more confident in Bell’s bat or were there other considerations (MLB success?) that created the separation? thanks
Klaw: I may be higher on Bell than the industry, but I see a guy who can hit, use the whole field, get on base, and hit for power. We like those guys, right?

Justin: Heading to Nashville in 2 weeks and I need to plan dinner for a group in their mid 30’s, any recommedations?
Klaw: Husk if you can get in. Also Two Ten Jack, 404 Kitchen, City House.

TC: I knew Kevin Grendell wouldn’t be close to the top 100 because he’s a reliever. But I was surprised I didn’t see him in your prospect coverage at all this offseason. What do you think his future is? Could he be an elite reliever?
Klaw: He’s in the Angels’ writeup as the #17 prospect in their system.

Nick: Any thoughts on Giants OF Austin Slater? He looks intriguing but I know that lots of hitters coming out of Stanford seem to have a bad rep.
Klaw: Not enough power to be a LF regular, hits enough to be a big league bench bat.

Michael: All the talk about the Yankees farm system being so good by the NY media seems to overlook that a bunch of their top prospects which they drafted/signed (Mateo, Judge, etc.) seemed to have regressed a bit (or not developed as hoped). Fair to be concerned about their development process? (Yes, I’m ignoring Sanchez’s graduation, but it’s been two months so hard to be supper bullish)
Klaw: I don’t think Judge has regressed or stagnated; he’s got one of the biggest strike zones in baseball but has made several gradual adjustments to get to the big leagues. Mateo has regressed. Jagielo flopped. Otherwise you’d have to go further back to the culver/bichette years.

Tim (KC): Keith… the Rockies off-season is really confusing… specifically signing Ian Desmond playing first base… with a stacked young infield and a logjam in the outfield (the positions that better align with his defensive versatility) in Dahl, Cargo, Blackmon, Parra and Tapia on his way . What are your thoughts? Were they planning on trading OF this off-season (and maybe that got torpedoed by the Eaton trade?) or maybe they just signed the Cargo-replacement a year early because they did not like the OF free agent crop next year (but that does not account for Tapia)?
Klaw: I don’t understand the Desmond signing at all. Not the player, not the contract, not the lost draft pick.

Philip: What you hearing about Luis Robert? Sounds like a top 150 prospect type? No
Klaw: Haven’t heard anything to put him up there. I haven’t seen him myself.

Fred: Why is Gimenez considered a “sleeper”? I know you often wouldn’t be accused of being conservative, but 16th on the Mets list after the season he had? Its not like he’s a pop-up guy, as you said in the report, big money guy. Is it simply the lack of experience playing in the states?
Klaw: You’re asking me how a guy who just turned 18 after the season and has never played outside of the DSL is a “sleeper?” Next year, do you want me to pick some T-ball slugger who’s still in diapers?

Matt: I’m 41 and thinking of starting a new career; possibly in writing. What are your thoughts on writing for free to build a resume and writing samples, content mills, etc.?
Klaw: I wouldn’t advise it. While there isn’t great money in freelancing, there is some money. Even a token payment means the publisher has some skin in the game too.

Mike: Nomar Mazara: Future superstar, all-star or solid regular?
Klaw: All-Star.

Farquat: Steve Bannon is: a) the devil. b) the devil. c) the devil. d) seriously, he’s the devil.
Klaw: He’s the devil without Mr. Woland’s charm.

Alex: Hey Keith. I very much enjoy your book reviews. Recently finished Station Eleven off your recommendation and loved it. I was wondering whether you had plans to update your ranking of top novels. Thanks for your work!
Klaw: Eventually, but between the prospect stuff and the book I haven’t had a ton of time for extra dish content in a while now.

Don: Dave Cameron said that Nate Jones “has a ton of value. Not quite as the Giles level, but he’d get a big return”. Do you agree with this? I can’t imagine a 31-year old reliever with a TJ in his past getting a ton in return.
Klaw: That’s probably not fair to Dave because I haven’t seen his explanation, but on its face, I don’t think he’d get a return like Giles or even the two closer trades last summer.

Tracy: We are living in increasingly dangerous times when I can call you an elitist east/west coast snob who spouts “facts” as truth and feel justified in doing so because our president can do the same thing to anybody or any institution without the slightest regard to legitimacy. You say climate change is a grave threat to our future? Hell, now I can retort by tagging you as fake news and go on my way without a second of meaningful consideration because it directly counters my narrow worldview and now I have a convenient “out.” Keith, I don’t know what else can be done to counteract this institutionalized ignorance beyond the standard Twitter warfare. Thoughts?
Klaw: My plan is to never shut up.

Chris: Your writeup on Nolan Jones mentioned that he k’d too much with no power, but he obviously has plenty of upside. How much leeway would you give him at this point and will he even get to full season ball this year?
Klaw: If he starts in extended spring training, that’s not necessarily a problem, although I would hope he’d do well enough in the Penn League that he might end the year in low-A.

Mike: Do you have a take on what happened in Berkeley this past week? When does it become appropriate, if ever, to resort to non-peaceful means in order to be heard and have something done?
Klaw: I don’t see how that neo-Nazi’s free speech rights were impacted at all. And I wouldn’t want that guy speaking on my campus or in my town and potentially fomenting further racial animus.

Chris: Keith, I saw your comment on Javier Guerra and was a little surprised. I thought most of his struggles this year were due to character issues. Does he have a shot to be on the top 100 next year?
Klaw: Character issues? Absolutely not. Anyone who says that – and I understand you’re saying you heard that somewhere – should be embarrassed. Yes, he does have a shot to return to the top 100 if fully healthy.

Steve: A non prospect question if I may. Peavy, Lincecum and Ryan Howard are former cy young/MVP winners looking for a job. Do you think any of them are on an opening day roster?
Klaw: Nope. Someone pointed out to me on twitter that years ago I’d predicted Lincecum wouldn’t make it to 30. I kind of can’t believe I said that – even for me, that sounds awfully harsh – but, well, here we are.

Nick: Hi Keith, any chance Peter Alonso can play a passable 3b? Since he is blocked by Smith, would be his best path to the bigs with the Mets.
Klaw: I highly doubt it.

Harrisburg Hal: I was looking for a carnitas recipe – you speak highly of them so I looked here first. I came across your pressure cooker recipe. We don’t have a pressure cooker. Can I use a dutch oven or crock pot?
Klaw: Yes, and it’ll probably be even better. Use the Dutch oven. Cook ’em low and slow.

Nick: Hi Keith, any chance Peter Alonso can play a passable 3b? Since he is blocked by Smith, 3b would be his best path to the bigs with the Mets.
Klaw: I don’t think he will.

Michael: Removal of Trump would require 2/3 of the Senate, meaning he would have to upset plenty of Republicans too. That “answer” was just a shot at the GOP.
Klaw: You don’t the GOP deserved that shot? Where exactly have they been, including the ones who had plenty of criticism of Trump and his proposed policies before the election? I’ve voted Republican many times in my life, but they are dead to me now.

Red Sox are better: Wasn’t Gary Sanchez monster quarter season the definition of SSS? He never hit for much power in any level before this. How can he be so well regarded by Zips and projectors as a 30+ HR catcher when he’s never done it before, never caught 130 games and faces wear and tear and pitchers figuring him out? What’s your projection for him?
Klaw: Oh, he has power. At 19 that guy was making incredibly hard contact off older pitchers.

Don: Has Alec Hansen floor raised or is there still significant Ankiel potential?
Klaw: Never thought he was Ankiel, but I wouldn’t say the concern that he’ll be too wild is gone yet.

Excited Book Buyer: If eligible, where would you slot Otani in the Top 100?
Klaw: He’d be #1, but again, it’s a bit unfair to comp a guy who is essentially a big leaguer already (in NPB) to prospects.

Vince: I am the parent of a 3 year old. My daughter just started watching TV (Daniel Tiger and Sesame Street). Curious what your TV and technology policy with your daughter was and how that has evolved as she got older. What worked/didn’t work.
Klaw: She can’t watch any shows we haven’t approved. We axed some for being dumb, some for humor we found offensive (including Disney’s Jessie, which I thought had dialogue that was rude to the point of bullying), but never really cut her off completely because it seemed futile.

Jeb: Why doesn’t Mateo make hard contact? Poor swing path? Lack of strength? Poor pitch recognition? Something else?
Klaw: I think it’s a hand strength issue.

Chris: Can Kodi Mediros make it even in the pen at this point?
Klaw: I’d just move him there now and see. Gotta throw strikes there too.

Baseball Dad: Hi Keith. I have a son, a high school freshman, who is being recruited by college baseball programs. Is there value in committing this early? In your opinion, what are the pros and cons? Thanks.
Klaw: Zero value, and as we’ve seen this winter with a bunch of football programs, no commitment is worth anything until it’s on paper.

Matt: Just want to say, I started watching Top Chef because of you. I know nothing about cooking, but now I watch and read your recaps. So thanks.
Klaw: I’ll do a recap later today or tomorrow too. Last week’s just never happened with all the prospect writing.

Greg: How do you deal with people who preach intolerant views who claim “liberals claim to be tolerant! Unless you don’t agree with them!” Nothing drives me more insane than the fact that they’re complaining about intolerance of their intolerant views and somehow think they deserve “equal time.” but i’ve yet to come up with a cogent, or at least semi-witty response. Or is that just impossible? HELP ME KLAW
Klaw: It’s the paradox of tolerance.

Elliott: O/U 20 hrs for Jorge Soler this year?
Klaw: I’ll go over. He’s been okay when healthy.

Jon: Keith, If I wanted to stock up on rookie cards of a Pennsylvania corner infielder to finance my retirement, would you say Ke’Bryan Hayes or Rhys Hoskins would have the best chance of being a HOFer? Either better than 1% chance? Thanks!
Klaw: I won’t say HoFer but Hayes is the better prospect.

Jason: Is DJ Peterson anything more than just a guy?
Klaw: Just a guy for me.

Henry: Going back to an earlier question, how do you deal with a scout who violated your trust by providing an inaccurate evaluation? Its one thing to ignore him but doesn’t that leak throughout the industry and compromise organizational trust?
Klaw: I just won’t ask that guy for help again. We can still be friends, or friendly.

Nelson: I’m admittedly not deeply knowledgeable about all of the things you write about board games, but most of the time i don’t recognize any of the games. I’m just curious if you have positive feelings about any of the “classic” games that you may have played as a kid. Any of them still in rotation for you?
Klaw: None of them. Monopoly – whoever gets lucky in the first round probably wins. Scrabble – that’s work, I’m not memorizing any fucking wordlists. Sorry – all luck, might as well go play roulette. Stratego – see you in a few hours. Risk – decent idea, poorly executed.

Harrisburg Hal: You are probably above bribery, but I’d gladly buy the hardback edition of your book if you sign it with something like….”and by the way I do actually hate your team”
Klaw: I’ll do that for free if I get out to do some signings.

Randy: We know G Stubbs can hit and play good defense but we don’t know how many games he can catch; we think Nido and Diaz can catch more games but don’t know whether they can hit–why not prefer the Stubbs uncertainty?
Klaw: Have you seen him up close? He’s a little dude. Like, I’m calling him a little dude. And I’m tiny.

Louie: I asked this last week but it went unanswered, so I’m not as clear on details; I think it was something like 7 out of the top 24 prospects would have been the Red Sox if not for trades within the last year, and that’s not even other pieces they gave up. Where would that kind of top talent have ranked since you’ve been doing these rankings?
Klaw: I don’t think any team has pulled that off, ever.

Al: Do i put questions in the comment section?
Klaw: imma smack you

Jer: When America crumbles are you going to Canada or Italy?
Klaw: I looked into Italian citizenship, but even though my grandfather was born there, I can’t get it because my mom never got hers.

Klaw: That’s all for this week; thank you as always for all your questions and for reading all that prospect content. I’ll be around next week but I’m also going to get some rest for a change. I’ll try to bring the chats back to Thursday starting this week and going forward.

Music update, January 2017.

My rankings of the top ten prospects by position are now up for Insiders, along with just about all of my offseason prospect rankings. I also have a new boardgame review, of the complex strategy game Forged in Steel, up over at Paste.

I couldn’t find enough new music to fill out a playlist at the end of December, but the last two months combined gave me more than enough material – twenty songs and nearly an hour and a half of new stuff. The beginning of this list feels really strong with singles I’ll have on the year-end list in ten and a half months, and there’s even some good new metal stuff at the end.

If the widget below doesn’t work, you can access the Spotify playlist here.

BNQT – Restart. This supergroup has members of Midlake, Grandaddy, Band of Horses, Travis, and Franz Ferdinand, and just announced their debut album this past week. This song is great, but I don’t think it’s necessarily unique – the main line reminds me of Tame Impala’s “Elephant,” which is a compliment but makes me wonder if having so many cooks in the kitchen will lead to a sound that lacks distinctive elements.

Bad Sounds – Wages. The Guardian named Bad Sounds their best new band of the week back in November, comparing them to early Beck and hip-hop, but I hear more Madchester and baggy sounds here, especially the groups that spun those into something poppier like the Soupdragons and Space Monkeys.

The New Pornographers – High Ticket Attractions. TNP are kind of an auto-include for me, but this is very similar to the better songs from Brill Bruisers, which I loved for its open embrace of pop melodies.

Slowdive – Star Roving. This is the first new single in 22 years from these shoegaze stalwarts, who were, I think, more critically acclaimed in their day than they were ever popular – but it’s good, a classic shoegaze song that doesn’t sound outdated.

Japandroids – True Love And A Free Life Of Free Will. I was not a fan of their 2012 album Celebration Rock, which made a slew of best-of lists for that year, but their latest record, the eight-song Near to the Wild Heart of Life, is cleaner, more polished, and more overtly melodic. The title track is good, this track is good, and the seven-minute “Arc of Bar” manages to fill its length with so much interesting material that I would have guessed it was two minutes shorter than its actual running time.

Spoon – Hot Thoughts. Another auto-include artist, and this song has a good Spoon hook, although the lyrics seem a little beneath them.

Lucius – The Punisher. Lucius put two songs on my 2016 year-end list, with one track at #10, and then rolled out this new single in December, which has a couple of really good melodic lines working in concert in the song’s second half.

Daughter – The End. This song didn’t appear on the Irish trio’s album Not to Disappear, released in January of 2016, but was a bonus track on certain later editions and then showed up as a single in October. It’s similarly melancholy, bordering on depressing, but with musical twists as the song crescendoes that almost hint at hope.

Heavy English – Shake. I loved this band’s first single, 2015’s “Twenty-One Flights,” but their full album didn’t quite fulfill that song’s promise; the whole record dropped in November and other than that song this was my favorite track, bringing in some of the bluesy riffing that made the first song grab my attention.

Slime Girls – Meteor Showers. Slime Girls’ Pedro Silva calls his music “laptop pop,” but this song rocks a little more with heavier guitar lines than that term implies. Apparently he’s been putting out records for years, with four longer releases, but this is the first song of theirs to cross my desk.

Ten Fé – Twist Your Arm. At some point, this electronic pop/rock duo has to release an album, right? I think this is now four great singles, and two I didn’t love, without a full-length record. I do love their sound, clearly – they’re in the same vein as White Lies, doing a more modern twist on synth-driven new wave.

Sundara Karma – Deep Relief. Their single “The Night” was #34 on my 2016 year-end list, and like that song, “Deep Relief” reminds me a lot more of Arcade Fire than the music of their stated influence, Bruce Springsteen. If they sounded more like Springsteen, I wouldn’t have any of their songs on these lists.

Arcade Fire with Mavis Staples – I Give You Power. All proceeds from the band’s first new song since Reflektor, a collaboration with Ms. Staples, will go to help the ACLU.

Goldfrapp – Anymore. This duo’s been around for 18 years, and I could swear I’ve heard some of their music before, but can’t figure out what song(s) that might have been. Anyway, their seventh album, Silver Eye, will be out early this year.

Tei Shi – Keep Running. This Argentine-born singer/songwriter is sort of Grimes Lite, mining similar territory but without Grimes’ vast musical reach, and I think aiming for a more atmospheric sound overall.

Gone Is Gone – Dublin. Mastodon singer/bassist Troy Sanders appears twice on this list, once here and once with his main band. Gone is Gone just released, Echolocation its second album in less than a year, and while I’ve yet to go through that whole album this lead single is strong and similar to the music (like “Violescent”) from their self-titled debut.

Black Map – Ruin. This heavy-rock trio will release its debut album, In Droves, in March; the first single, “Run Rabbit Run,” was #65 on my 2016 year-end list.

Overkill – Mean, Green, Killing Machine. Overkill were one of the better true thrash acts of the 1980s that never rose to the level of the big 3 or 4 (Metallica, Megadeth, Slayer, and maybe Anthrax) but have stayed very true to their original sounds while more popular acts have tried to evolve to chase more sales. Testament and Overkill put out the best records of any of those 1980s/1990s US metal stalwarts that released new albums in the last 24 months.

Mastodon – Sultan’s Curse. Good Mastodon songs are progressive without sounding prog-rockish. This is one of them.

Pallbearer – Thorns. These critically acclaimed doom metallers can get a little long – which is inherent in the genre – but “Thorns” is shorter, tighter, and thus really holds your attention without losing the heavy gloom that makes their music compelling.

Stick to baseball, 1/28/17.

My ranking of the top 100 prospects went up this week, and my org rankings went up last week, so ESPN set up a landing page that links to all my prospect content. When the individual team top tens and reports go up next week, you’ll be able to reach them from this page as well.

ESPN split my top 100 ranking into five posts this year, twenty prospects per page, so here they are from the top to the bottom:

I held a Klawchat Friday after the whole list was up.

And I even got another boardgame review up, this one of the new edition of the 2000 game Citadels, which is actually designed for 4 to 8 players, with rules variants included for 2 or 3. It’s definitely best with four or more, though.

You can preorder my upcoming book, Smart Baseball, on amazon, or from other sites via the Harper-Collins page for the book. Also, please sign up for my more-or-less weekly email newsletter.

And now, the links…

Klawchat, 1/27/17.

The whole top 100 is now up; you can see the top 20 prospects here or go to this landing page with links to all parts of the prospect rankings package.

You can preorder my upcoming book, Smart Baseball, on amazon, or from other sites via the Harper-Collins page for the book. Also, please sign up for my more-or-less weekly email newsletter.

Klaw: It’s the highest in commodity grade, and you can get it today. Klawchat.

jay_B: Brendan Rodgers writeup mentions he struck out “just” 98 times in 110 games. Is that actually a good number or am I just misunderstanding that whole section?
Klaw: That’s actually a good number for a guy his age. Look at strikeout totals across the minors – they’re really high now, just as they are in the majors.

Carl Spackler: How close were guys like Clifton, De La Cruz, Almora and Candelario to your top 100? Would those guys all be in your 100-150ish range?
Klaw: None was terribly close, although I bet de la Cruz would have made it had he been healthy all season (or just lacked those concerns going forward).

Oden: Hi Keith– I was a little surprised that David Paulino wasn’t in your top 100. Future reliever for you, or something else keeping him out? Thanks!
Klaw: Future reliever. Like 90/10 odds. Delivery is out of control for me, can’t see starter command or ability to repeat it 100 times a game.

Phillip: Do you have a list of “next ten” that didn’t make the top 100? Or at least the guys who you remember having just missed the cut?
Klaw: That list of ten goes up tomorrow.

Mike: I did not see Reynaldo Lopez on your list. Is this because you think he is 100% a reliever or was he not eligible?
Klaw: Another one I think is absolutely a reliever. Can’t start with that delivery.

Danny: Are you shocked how bad this first week of know nothing politics went?
Klaw: Shocked, no. Dismayed, yes.

Alivio: Keith, looks like you let your ego get the best of you once again with that Yoan ranking. Seems he’s a shoe in as a top 5 prospect. Why so low on him?
Klaw: Yes, it’s all my ego, not a rational examination of each player’s strengths and weaknesses, which I then spelled out at length for everyone to see. It’s just me.

Aaron C.: As the father of a 12-year-old ball player, I was encouraged to see so many prospects of African-American descent in your top 100. In your view, is this indicative of any burgeoning reconciliation between black youth and baseball? Is the RBI program bearing fruit? Or, is it just small sample size snapshot? Thanks!
Klaw: Probably just an upturn in the cycle. I’ll feel better about it if and when we get more African-American players in the majors in regular roles that have often been closed off to them, like starting pitchers or catchers.

J.P.: Curious not to see Luke Weaver anywhere. Thoughts?
Klaw: Not even close. Two-pitch guy who lacks plane on the fastball.

Allan: Mike Soroka must have been close to being included on your top 100, right? What other Braves prospects warranted consideration?
Klaw: He’s the top Atlanta prospect who missed, but I’m not sure I’d say he was close either. Low slot guy with slight frame. Scouts were very mixed on him staying a starter; one scout I talked to who saw Rome’s whole rotation put Weigel over Soroka.

Ben: Chances of Bellinger moving to the OF permanently?
Klaw: What I’ve heard is that you’re trading a 7 glove at 1b for a 5 glove in the outfield. I don’t think the Dodgers would do that.

Mike Sixel: Would you have traded Dozier straight up for De Leon, from the Twins’ side? thanks!
Klaw: No. I don’t think that’s enough value given what Dozier has been the last two years.

Adam: Fernando Tatis Jr is someone a lot of people are including on Padres Top 10 lists, but to consider him a Top 50 prospect in all of baseball is pleasantly surprising. Is this ranking based on what he’s done, or what you expect him to do in 2017?
Klaw: It’s based in this case entirely on scouts’ feedback about him specifically and the list as a whole. I have yet to see him play.

Tom: You have mentioned teams trying to avoid sending prospects to extreme environments (Colorado Springs, Lancaster, High Desert, etc.) or ballparks (Savannah) that might adversely impact their development. What factors do teams consider when seeking player development contracts with minor league affiliates? Is there a reason some teams get stuck with affiliates that don’t really make sense for player development, geographic, or business reasons (thinking the Brewers in Colorado Springs or the Mets in Las Vegas)? I understand there are only a limited number of markets and minor league teams, but why aren’t teams more aggressive in seeking agreements with affiliates, or owning them outright (like the Braves)?
Klaw: Proximity to MLB club, quality of facilities, hitting environment, attendance are all factors. More clubs are buying affiliates to avoid the biennial shuffle.

Stevie: Hey Keith, thanks for all the great work. If you had to pick a Mets prospect to jump into the Top 100 next yr between Andres Gimenez, Wuilmer Becerra, Tomas Nido, Luis Carpio and Dez Lindsay…….who would you choose? Do you think any of them (or even more than one of them make that jump? Thanks again.
Klaw: I pick a sleeper for each team, which is exactly what you describe, in the org reports that will run next week. The 10 East teams run Monday, Central Tuesday, West Wednesday.

Johnny: No Tyler O’Neill, Keith? That’s just baffling to me, especially given his breakout year away from the CAL. Please explain!
Klaw: Breakout year? Interesting, given the mediocre contact rate. He’s also a bat-first guy who’s physically maxed out already and won’t provide value on defense. Now, to be clear, omitting a guy from the top 100 is not saying he sucks. I’m saying he’s not one of the top 100 prospects in baseball. There are more than 100 prospects in the minors right now, and always.

Danny: How close was Bradley zimmer to making the 100 cut? Thought he might eke in there after his strong afl. Thx!
Klaw: But he didn’t have a strong AFL. Lefties destroyed him there – 14 K in 30 PA.

Johnny: I assume Calhoun missed because of his defensive (lack of) prowess, but which position would suit him best?
Klaw: Batters’ box.

Jake: Did Anthony Banda get any consideration in such a desolate system such as AZ’s? (Cue “High Noon”)
Klaw: No – I wouldn’t force a guy on the list just because he’s the best guy in a bad system.

Grant: Come on, where is Tyler O’Neill? This is a GLARING omission!
Klaw: Oh, well, if it’s GLARING, I’d better get on that.

addoeh: Without giving anything away, I was surprised by your Tebow ranking. Thoughts?
Klaw: He’s ranked #666.

Ethan: Keith, I am curious your thoughts on Hunter Renfroe. With him not being in your Top 100, are you most concerned with strikeouts? Thanks for your work!
Klaw: Not just strikeouts but lack of offspeed recognition period.

Lenny: I was surprised not to see Gavin Cecchini crack the top 100. You’ve said in the past that he’s likely to stay at SS and while I know you don’t think his offensive profile is as good as the top shortstops, he had an expected year in AAA. What happened that caused you to drop him?
Klaw: He’s no longer likely to stay at shortstop. His throwing problems from 2015 got worse.

Travis: What fan base usually asks the most questions on a weekly bases?
Klaw: Right now it’s Atlanta, although there’s been a strange uptick in White Sox questions lately.

KLaw is out of his mind: A guy with makeup issues (and hasn’t pitched above High-A) is the top SP prospect over two SPs who can throw nearly as hard, have better secondary stuff – and both have seen the bigs. Well, I’m convinced. (sarcasm detector in the red)
Klaw: You lost me right there at “makeup issues.” You almost certainly know nothing about Kopech’s makeup except the secondhand stuff you’ve read. I would bet good money I know more about the subject, and obviously I’m comfortable ranking him where I did even knowing that information. And hey, feel free to omit the delivery questions I had on Reyes, since they don’t support your whining.

Craig: As a Brewers fan, I am really happy to see so many players in your top 100 at various positions (2 SPs, 2B, 3B, 2 OF) to go with Orlando Arcia. But is there anyone in the Brewers system who profiles as a future starter with good power (40 HR potential). For a team long known for sluggers, it seems odd that there isn’t a big power guy already in the minors.
Klaw: Brinson has 30 HR power, least. 40 HR power is pretty rare.

G: I know you’ve reviewed the board game “Tak” for Paste, but I was wondering if you’ve given any consideration to reading the Kingkiller Chronicle books. I’m halfway through the 2nd book at the moment, and really enjoying it, even though it falls into a lot of the traps of the fantasy genre.
Klaw: Nah, too long.

Luke: Hi Keith, love your work! The aspects of Boston/Cambridge that you miss the most/least are…?
Klaw: The cultural opportunities Boston offered.

Parrot: Assuming Zack Collins can’t stay behind the plate, how much of a gap exists between him and Matt Thaiss?
Klaw: Large. He’s got way more power. And I think he’s a better hitter than I credited him for being before the draft.

Fan of Tyler: Surprised to see Tyler O’Neill miss the list. What don’t you like about him?
Klaw: Wrong question. It’s not “like.” This is what I believe the player to be, or to lack.

Nolan LeMond: Touki Toussaint fell outside your Top 100, not terribly surprising. Do you see his future more as a wipe-out reliever than a starter at this point?
Klaw: I’d still develop him as a starter, but he has to repeat the delivery better to stay there. The reps of starting will help him even if he ends up in the bullpen.

Adam: What are your thoughts on relief pitchers in the Hall of Fame? The top four relievers per JAWS are Eck, Mariano, Hoyt Wilhelm and Goose. I would be inclined to draw the line right there. I am not in favor of Trevor Hoffman for the HOF, and I thought Bruce Sutter was a very bad selection a few years back. However, I am willing to give Rollie Fingers a pass on account of the mustache.
Klaw: I feel pretty much the same way, although Eck was a dubious choice too, sort of compounding the error of the MVP award he got.

Crumb: Any thoughts on the Dodgers Julian Leon? Or is he too far away to really project?
Klaw: He hasn’t hit in two years and can’t catch.

Van: You rated Nick Senzel extremely highly. Assuming he is still prospect eligible at this time next year, do you think there’s any chance that Taylor Trammell could be ranked higher than Senzel?
Klaw: Not really. But I think Trammell is a candidate to make a big jump this year.

Nick: One of my favorite things about the prospect list is seeing the balance between ceiling and proximity to the majors. Ever give any thought to extending it to still-young major leaguers? I.E. I would love to see how the added certainty of Addison Russell compares to the upside of Ahmed Rosario.
Klaw: No, because this is already more work than I can handle.

Jeff: Reading the reports for Yadier Alvarez & Kopech…they seem fairly similar yet one is in the mid 40s and the other in the top 10. Can you elaborate on why such a difference between these two specific players? Thanks as always for the work…this package is the whole reason I pay for insider.
Klaw: Big command difference between the two even right now. Alvarez could barely throw a strike a year ago. I don’t know if he ever gets past 40 command. Kopech I think will.

Paul: How far has Brady Aiken’s stock fallen for you?
Klaw: He was pitching with a 45 fastball last summer, so until he gets all his velocity back, he’s not a top 100 candidate.

Jeff: A lot of mentions of “too big to stay at SS”, even going back to Seager and Correa. Obviously a lot of guys will move off the position for various reasons, but at what point might we have to adjust the thinking in terms of size based on how athletes in all sports are getting bigger, faster, stronger than in prior generations?
Klaw: Correa’s defensive numbers are not good, so I think size still matters for shortstops. Perhaps Seager is an exception, although based on one year I don’t think I’d give up on the old maxim.

Denis: You once thought very highly of Jorge Soler; are you still a believer?
Klaw: Yes. Just gotta stay healthy.

Joshkvt: PEDs and assault of an elderly employee aside, it would be fair for a HOF voter to reject Manny for tanking an at-bat in an important game because he was pouting, right?
Klaw: Or for simply giving up on defense. There are fair reasons to omit him in favor of ten other candidates.

Henry: Keith, what are your thoughts on the Forsythe/De Leon trade?
Klaw: Liked it a little more for Tampa Bay. De Leon needs some tweaking but I think he’s a surefire back-end starter now.

Democ..libertari…idk: Everyone’s fine with a big government as long as their party is in charge. But once the opposition takes control they freak out because they know/realize how much power the President & company has. Sure, big governments in the right hands can do some good things, but it also makes it easier for what’s happening right now to happen. Am I wrong?
Klaw: That sounds reasonable to me. Although I feel like the Republican party pushed for smaller government for so long (something I could buy into, although as always the devil’s in the details) that it’s weird to see them now advocating lots of big government expenditures.

Nick: Have an opinion on Jose Albertos? Crazy young and small sample sized, but what’s the upside look like?
Klaw: Four innings is about as small a sample as you can get, but he’s in my Cubs top ten, so check that out on Tuesday. It’s legit stuff. Albertos’, I mean, not my Cubs top ten. Well, both, really. OK, next question.

Nick: Apparently the Cubs had the choice to send Jimenez or Torres to New York for Chapman. Think they blew it, or is it too early (and excessive knitpicking)? I’m aware of their rankings in your top 100.
Klaw: No. Either guy was going to be a big price to pay, and obviously I feel like both guys are going to end up stars. No matter who they gave up, you’d feel a little mixed right now about losing that kind of prospect even with the World Series win.

The Kid: Have you ever released a teams top 10 within the top 100 before? Braves almost snuck in there (I assume they will with the honorable mentions)
Klaw: No. I believe they did set the record with 9 guys on this year’s list, though. I don’t recall any team ever getting to 9 before.

Shaun: Jorge Mateo vs. Gleyber Torres: Who is the Yankees future SS, and does the other move to CF?
Klaw: Torres. Mateo has to show he can make good enough contact to play at any position right now. That’s two years of weak contact, and while he’s way faster than Torres, Torres has better hands and actions at short.

Randy: If Willie Calhoun could play average defense at 2nd would he have made your top 100?
Klaw: And if my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.

Jack C.: The big issue on Twitter today is the debate on whether or not people should write for free. For example, Daren Rovell and Matthew Berry argue that you should write for free for companies to make connections, gain exposure, etc. Everyone has to start somewhere and that is how they did it. On the other hand, people are arguing that you should never write for free and that you are being taken advantage of when it comes to your hard work. I guess this relates to many things – but in relation to working in baseball (bb ops department) or writing about baseball, what is your stance on this issue? I worked in a non-baseball ops internship role in baseball for minimum wage and have been writing about baseball for a few years now with zero pay.
Klaw: I never work for free. Even now, when I can afford it, I wouldn’t write for anyone else for free. Now it’s part principle, part ensuring both parties have some skin in the game. I also truly wish – not that it’s happening in the next four years – that the federal government would call free internships what they are, an illegal circumvention of minimum wage laws.

Chris Garosi: Not really a question, but a suggestion for a book tour should one come to fruition. If you come to DC, Politics & Prose would be a great choice and then an “after party” at Comet Ping Pong which is just around the corner.
Klaw: Hell, I’d go visit CPP just to show my support for them after what the tin-foil hat Nazi crowd has done this year.

Joe: Is is too early to say the Phillies made a mistake taking Moniak first overall since Rutherford is ranked higher and cost about half as much? I could understand not taking Groome if they didn’t want a pitcher, but Rutherford plays the same position.
Klaw: It’s too early and I didn’t rank them THAT far apart.

RiverCity: This seems intuitive, but do team with major local prospects actually see them more than teams further afield? Like the Reds and Jordon Adell in Louisville or players from the University of Louisville for instance?
Klaw: I think that’s much true of someone like Josh Hader, who was a local kid for the Orioles but was not on the national radar, than someone like Adell, whom even I’ve seen 2-3 times already and I don’t live anywhere near there.

Dennis: Christian Arroyo fell from #65 all the way out of the top 100. I had been hoping he would take over 3rd base for the big league club at some point this season. What do you see happening with him long term?
Klaw: First of all, there is no “fell.” I said in the methodology piece that I do this list from scratch each year, so where a player ranked before has zero impact on where he ranked this year. This isn’t the Billboard Hot 100 and I am not Casey Kasem. As for Arroyo, he got exposed a bit by better pitching in double-A, and I don’t think he has the power for third base in the long run (or the arm?).

Richard: I’m assuming there is not much separating the top 4 shortstops for you but who among them do you think has the highest ceiling and who has the highest floor? Lowest ceiling and floor?
Klaw: I’m the most sure about Swanson, and I think Rosario has the best chance to be a superstar from that quartet.

Jason: Has a team executive ever bribed you to put one of their prospects on the top 100 or higher on the list than they deserved to be?
Klaw: No. But everyone pushes their guys – that’s normal.

Dennis: What would it take to get you out to Hawaii this year for a book signing?
Klaw: Not much convincing.

David: I get that Bobby Bradley has some holes in his game. But how much value do you put on the age vs. level metric? Led high-A in homers at 20? Seems like a good profile to have. Devers is another example, where a lot of his talent is still hypothetical.
Klaw: Age vs level is useful, but hardly definitive. Bradley is a below avg 1B with huge swing and miss.

Patrick: Keith, you got it from here. Question on reading to/with your daughter–do you do different voices for different characters in the books? Or just read them more or less straight?
Klaw: Different voices. The Harry Potter series was a real challenge.

Ty: How high could Acuna have ranked with a full season of his production?
Klaw: Not that much higher unless he’d moved up a level and performed against better pitching.

ssimo02: Klaw, I was going to print this question out and send to you in a box… Anyway, what’s your take on writing for free (for a profit-making enterprise) as an advancement strategy? Were you paid from Day 1 at BP? Thanks as always.
Klaw: I owned a piece of BP. That’s a different story.

Dave: I know you’re not an economist, but any thoughts on this idea? What if the government forgave all student loan debt? I know I’d have a lot more money to spend every month, but I’m not sure if this would have much of an impact on the economy overall.
Klaw: I’ve thought about that too. I think it’s a huge economic stimulus, albeit one that doesn’t directly help the lowest economic classes. But what’s the process – the government then pays the banks that hold all this debt? The feds don’t actually own the loans.

JP: the readers at River Ave Blues (great Yankees blog), think the reason you dropped Moncada is simply because he’s no longer a Red Sox #Meow
Klaw: That is a great blog, and that is a really fucking stupid thing for them to say.

Tracy: For all the books you read year in and year out, do you keep any sort of catalog that keeps track of what you read?
Klaw: I have a spreadsheet with everything i’ve read (and dates) for the last nine years.

Dave: Trump holds the nuclear codes. I think that’s what scares me most of all right now.
Klaw: Yes but his teeny tiny fingers won’t be able to push the button. (I have tiny hands too, so I would know.)

Rob: In regards to your tweet about not being interested in seeing “a Mel Gibson movie.” Is this solely because of his actions that landed him in so much trouble? If so, are there other artists — Polanski, Kazan, Michael Jackson — whose actions put up similar red flags? In this era, where it’s impossible to separate artist from the art they produce, what does this say about how we can suspend our disbelief and appreciate a work of art?
Klaw: I won’t see a Woody Allen movie or a Roman Polanski movie either.

Joseph: I understand your ranking of Yoan Moncada; but for those that see at 70 FV prospect ranked elsewhere, how do you explain the massive drop? Is his swing and miss issues that pronounced? Does he not still project to be a 70 FV to you?
Klaw: I simply don’t see a 70 Future Value as a likely enough outcome.

PHM: Better bat now and in the future: Bregman or Benintendi? Thanks!
Klaw: Bat alone, Bregman.

Mike: Is Juan soto any good?
Klaw: Yes, quite.

Peet: What does it mean to get on top of a fastball? Thanks
Klaw: Think about pitchers’ release points; the higher it is, the more your hand is on top of the ball at release and can drive the pitch down (with “angle”) towards the bottom fo the zone. A lower slot merely makes that more difficult, but not impossible.

Tyler S: Glad to see Tapia get some respect with a Top 60 rating. Who was the top Rockies prospect that missed your list? Any consideration for German Marquez or Ryan Castellani? Marquez advanced quickly to the majors with three consecutive seasons of a consistent ERA around 3.30 and many think Castellani is poised for a break out
Klaw: They have someone on the just missed list tomorrow.

Thomas: Is there a group of people who love telling other people what they’re allowed to do/feel more so than straight white men?
Klaw: You’re not allowed to feel that way, Thomas.

JP: was it a coincidence that Guerrero Jr and Tatis Jr were ranked back-to-back?
Klaw: Yes. I didn’t realize I did that.

Matt: Is this your least favorite chat of the year? How much hate can one person endure?
Klaw: Nah, there’s always a mid- to late-April chat or two where the “YOU WERE WRONG” people show up armed with 13 games of data. Some of the questions now are great, and a few are the whole “I read something on some blog and you don’t agree so you’re wrong!” thing.

JP: Jorge Mateo dropped significantly, how much was due to performance vs suspension?
Klaw: I’ll just add that the suspension had zero impact on where I ranked him this year. It was over something trivial.

Mikey: Any opinions on Bo Bichette’s potential upside?
Klaw: I’m a big fan of the bat, and he could be a top 100 guy next year if he settles at a position (2b for me) and hits like I expect him to.

JP: Is Javier Guerra a glove-only type SS prospect at this point?
Klaw: There’s more potential there than you’d think from the stat line.

Adam: Thoughts on Alex Jackson going back behind the plate again? How did he project there before he moved to the OF?
Klaw: He needs to be there to restore his chance of having value, and I thought in HS that he could catch. He has the arm and his body is right. That’s a position that requires hard work, though, and I think that’s his challenge now.

Tom: 2016 was certainly a disappointing year for the Phillies’ prospects but do you still think the future is bright soon for the system to produce some big league value other than Crawford? What kind of potential does ths system have tget back in the Top 10 with just bounce back/breakout years from some guys even with the graduation of Crawford?
Klaw: Yes. It’s not a bad system by any means and I think it will end up producing a lot of big leaguers, but a lot of their main guys seemed to lose something off the right tails of their distributions of potential outcomes.

Donald J: Zips has Mazara having a 1 win season. As he ascended through the minors, I saw you state a few times that he “could” be a superstar. Is that still his ceiling? How far away is he from achieving that?
Klaw: I would bet the over on that.

Nils: Hi Keith, thanks for the top 100 list. From what you have seen and heard of Moncada, does he have the potential to become more than average defensively at 2B?
Klaw: No. I liked him better at 3B, where the explosiveness plays up and his trouble getting down on balls is less of an issue.

Kevin: Do you know if they’re putting up an index of all 100 prospects like in years past? It’s a quick resource for finding GUYS instead of hunting through the different sections.
Klaw: I am going to ask about that.

Joseph: How close or far off this list is Tom Murphy? He looked solid in September, and seems to have a solid bat, is his defense what holds him back?
Klaw: Defense and dead-pull approach. Was not a consideration.

Philip: how do you usually make your eggs?
Klaw: Love a poached egg or a soft-scrambled one.

Aaron (Houston): Klaw, I think it’s amazing the amount of content (baseball, cooking, board games, music, politics, etc.) you supply, plus reading so much and providing good family time. How do you do it? Also, what kind of power potential can we see from Rafael Devers. Will the defense ever come around, or is he destined for 1st base? Thanks!!!
Klaw: I think there’s 30 HR power in there given time. He got big this winter, so I wonder if he’s just going to grow off third base – his defense there right now is actually pretty good, but man he is huge.

Matt: Just to dive a little further into Reynaldo Lopez, if you don’t mind. Two years ago, when he had very little experience and, presumably, the same delivery, he ranked 75th on your list. Two years later, after a breakout season in which he dominated the minors as a starter and looked at least passable in the Majors (8.59 K/9), why has he only fallen in your eyes?
Klaw: He hasn’t “fallen,” and that’s your entire problem here. He doesn’t have the delivery to start, ergo, he’s not on the list. He even had a big split between starting and relief work in the majors (small samples for both, though).

Philip: Do you think Mason Thompson could be a top 100 guy in a year
Klaw: I do. He’s pretty exciting. Showed up post-draft with a changeup no one, including the Padres, seemed to know he had. (He threw one inning his whole senior year due to TJ.)

Fred: Were you hesitant to put Gsellman in your top 50 given his improvements seem to have only been a few at the end of the season? I thought your scouting report of him sounded very safe.
Klaw: I think he is very safe, so that’s good. But no one thinks he has the kind of upside he’d need to be top 50.

Garrett: Didn’t expect to see him on the list given the questions on his contact, but do you think Travis Demeritte coudl eventually profile at 3B for ATL? I know you aren’t to high on Riley and I am just trying to get a glimpse of a potential future.
Klaw: Demeritte’s a 2B and might be a 70 defender there. He’s got range and quick actions there that i never saw from him at short.

Denis: Do you ever get tired of explaining to Trump supporters that a tariff on Mexican goods would simply raise the cost on American consumers and in turn, Americans would be the one’s paying for the wall? I think most people (Trump supporters) think we lose jobs to Mexico and China when the #1 job killer is technology and automation.
Klaw: Given the abysmal state of economics education in this country, I’m not surprised by any of the reaction. It’s also worth pointing out that once upon a time, the GOP was the party of lower taxes and free trade (and that was a period when I would regularly vote Republican). I miss those days. I felt like I had an actual choice.

Eduardo: As a phd student in history, I’m curious about your approach to writing. Do you sit down and type it all? Handwrite first? Handwrite notes and then type? Staring at a blank screen is panic inducing so I hand write everything first. Of course, this also handicaps my output in terms of volume. Just curious!
Klaw: I never hand write. I sit down, I type, I get up to take a leak, I type some more.

Miller: You’re obviously 1,000 times more plugged in than we are (no sarcasm, honestly), so is it fair to say you’re more down on Tyler O’Neill than other analysts are, or like most fans of teams/players, have we M’s fans been overvaluing him?
Klaw: I think if you’re just looking at his age and the stat line, you’d like him more than if you saw him and went through a process like I do to get more info on him. Part of the benefit of being young for one’s league is that the player is expected to mature physically but is already showing the approach or other skills that will make future successes even stronger. If the player’s already maxed out physically at 21 – seriously, O’Neill is jacked up like a bodybuilder – then you lose out on the projection.

Jason: Can Kyle Zimmer bounce back and be a top-100 prospect again?
Klaw: That poor guy has to stay healthy. The latest was surgery to repair thoracic outlet syndrome. Check back in March.

Dobis: What are your thoughts on Cornelius Randolph in Philly?
Klaw: Can hit, questionable in left, not sure if it’ll be more than average power. Had some injury troubles last year that probably obscured his skills.

Dobis: What do you think of the upside for Nolan Jones in Cleveland? Was he really a first round talent?
Klaw: I think he was a first-round talent, but he was a little overmatched in the AZL.

Jim: Keith, regarding the De Leon-Forsythe trade, I’ve read some claims that you dissed De Leon’s MLB stint, focusing on his low swing-and-miss rate (over 300 pitches). Given your long-held stance on SSS, I find their charge curious. Are you being trolled?
Klaw: Two things. One, the original capsule on De Leon was messed up (on my end, not my editors). It had his number of swings and misses on changeups (9) as if that were his total number (32, I believe – all from baseballsavant). Two, no, that wasn’t the basis for his ranking, but something that I felt supported the point that his high K rate from triple-A and double-A might not carry over to the majors. He has no breaking ball, and his fastball is just average and a little true. He’s aggressive, he throws strikes, he’s an awesome kid, and the changeup is a solid 55 for me. I like him, but if you just look at the minor league stats you might see an ace, and he’s not that.

G: Was pleasantly surprised by your Josh Bell ranking. Do you think with the weight he’s lost this offseason he could play a passable right field were a McCutchen trade to happen?
Klaw: I would just leave the guy at first and let him work on the position. I never thought he had the arm for RF – I figured he’d end up in left.

Jake the Snake: Was Jake Bauers left off the list because he can’t hit a homerun out of coors field? If he add power this year could he make the mid season top 100 or is that like saying if my aunt had balls, she would be my uncle?
Klaw: I just don’t see big upside for a guy with no projection and, as you said, limited power. We don’t see many 1b with good OBPs but fringy power, so it’s hard to look at him and say he’s more than a regular, but he might be an exception there.

Ben: Are you going to take a trip down to Vanderbilt soon? A couple friends of mine are big fans and would love to buy you a beer if you’re seeing Kendall and Wright.
Klaw: I fully intend to come to Vanderbilt this year to see those guys and be in Nashville because Nashville is awesome. Just don’t pass any hate bills before I get there.

Daniel: Hi Keith, Great work as always. I appreciate all the work. How close was Luis Urias to the top 100? I understand the lack of power, but Ive read some scouting reports where they mention some pop in that little frame .
Klaw: Not close. Not even the first or second Padre off the list.

Jake: I know you’ve questioned Austin Rileys bat speed in the past, but did his second half numbers change your mind at all on him?
Klaw: Not in the least.

John: Can’t Brandon Nimmo get some back of the list love? 159WRC+. How many guys are doing that?
Klaw: Doesn’t hit lefties, has to play a corner, and that stat you cited is an extreme outlier from his partial season in Las Vegas.

Tom(2): How frustrating does it get each year when the following scenario happens repeatedly: You: Research player by talking to scouts, execs, and actually SEEING the player in person, give detailed explanation of player ranking. Fan: Scans another writer’s list, sees player ranked high, satisfies own confirmation bias, claims you know nothing because player isn’t ranked high enough.
Klaw: Well, it’s part of the job, I guess – plus the rise in the cult of the amateur, where anyone who can buy a video camera thinks he’s a scout. (I’m not a scout, BTW, but I talk to a lot of them.)

Dobis: Does Donnie Dewees have potential to ever make the top 100?
Klaw: Not in my opinion.

Alex: As has also been pointed out on twitter, hiring only those who have worked unpaid internships basically guarantees you will only hire affluent people who can afford to work for free.
Klaw: And I’d bet your talent pool would be rather homogenous at that point.

Matt: I’m curious to get your take on Nats’ OF prospect Juan Soto, who is getting a lot of buzz around these parts. Is he a guy who could jump way up the list with an impressive full season debut this year?
Klaw: He’s #2 in the Nats’ top ten.

Eric: You’re consistently the “high” prospect guy on Dom Smith. What do you think his career looks like? Peak seasons? Thanks for the chats as always!
Klaw: High averages and OBPs, 20+ homers, good defense, and too many GIDP.

Adam: Does Christian Arroyo profile best as a second baseman?
Klaw: I’d like him a lot more over there.

Lark11: Awful news about Matt Imhoff. Do you have any anecdotes or final thoughts on what he might have become on the mound?
Klaw: He was a bit of a longshot because he was such a soft tosser, but that is as bad a break as you can imagine. For folks who don’t remember, he was doing some routine stretch-band work when the metal piece to which he’d attached his band came off the wall and damaged his eye so much doctors had to remove it. I really hope he just has a good quality of life going forward. That’s beyond baseball.

Tom(2): Glad the Angels finally got someone in the Top 100 again, but realistically, how far away from the ML roster is Jones? 2-3 years?
Klaw: More like 3-4 years.

Joe: Any opinions on Dante Bichette Jr’s potential upside?
Klaw: The Yankees guy? Org player. No upside. If you meant Bo with Toronto, I discussed him earlier in the chat.

BD: Have you ever rated a 17 year old as high as you have Maitan at 59?
Klaw: Yes. Sano was around #50 at one point, and I had Villalona way too high on a list one year before we knew (or I knew) he would swing at everything and was going to kill somebody.

Kay: Would (have?) you ever do a list based on position? The Top 100 is always crowded with SS-CF types (reasonably so) but it would be neat to see where prospects stacked up against their positional compatriots
Klaw: We do this every year after all the lists run. I don’t know exactly when that’s running this year, but it’ll be soon.

Tom: Sorry my question about the philosophy behind Watchmen and how it relates to humanity wasn’t good enough to deserve an answer.
Klaw: It was way too long, and I have over 500 unanswered questions in the queue (although 100 are Eric submitting that Dom Smith question – please don’t do that again, Eric).

Alex: Do you agree that the problem with Trump is not so much his policies but rather the man delivering the message? Another person trying to implement the same policies would not have the same amount of resistance as he does.
Klaw: Oh, some of his policies would get resistance, like ACA repeal or making federal park land essentially worth zero dollars.

Kevin: Is Adam Walker just AAA filler at this point? I see that he was a top 20 prospect for the O’s on MLB.com’s final 2016 update
Klaw: He can’t hit and has no position. I don’t see ranking him anywhere.

Dave: Could Marcos Molina stay healthy/have value if shifted to the bullpen?
Klaw: I think that’s where he ends up, but why not start him this year and see how it goes? Lets the Mets manage his innings more easily anyway.

KS: No Verdugo or O’neill??
Klaw: Verdugo is on the list.

Philip: Did Greg Allen get some consideration or no? Seems like he could have a Inciarte type career
Klaw: No. Nice player, maybe a good fourth OF, has to bump up at least a grade on defense to be what you’re describing.

Keith: What kind upside does Joe Rizzo have? Any chance he surges up the rankings with a big year?
Klaw: I don’t see the upside there for this. Short, squat guy with hit tool but no projection and unclear position.

Pat D: Just to be fair to RAB, it’s the commenters, a lot of whom I can tell you from first-hand experience are blithering idiots, making those Moncada comments, not Mike or any of the actual people working at the site.
Klaw: I know that – the folks who run RAB are good people and have been very, very supportive of my work for a long time.

Bob: The Braves had 9 prospects in your list this year. Impressive. Have you had years when a team placed no one in the top 100?
Klaw: The Royals and Dbacks had none this year. The Angels missed last year. The Brewers missed in either 2013 or 2014.

Jack C.: Is it worth spending 50K+ on an MBA nowadays? I just graduated with my undergrad and managed to score a pretty decent paying job. I still hope to break into baseball ops one day. Thoughts?
Klaw: No. In most fields, the MBA doesn’t pay off. If you have a promotion or raised promised to you if you get an MBA, or are in one of the few fields that truly values the MBA, that’s different. For baseball, though, no.

Ridley Kemp: My wife just got hired at a board game bar. Do we live in marvelous times or what?
Klaw: That’s a good job. I might do that for free.

MikeM: Does your projection of Mateo change if the Yankees move him to CF? His speed has the potential to make him a plus defender there.
Klaw: His speed gave him the potential for plus defense at shortstop but it’s not happening.

Mark: Your Moncada ranking is interesting as I figured he would be a shoe in for the #1 spot just based off of all the hype I’ve read about him and him being Minor League Player of the Year. Granted ranking him 17 isn’t anything to sneeze at but from the write up it sounds like you’re very concerned with his swing and miss. Obviously there have been former #1 prospects that were busts (like Delmon Young) how would you rank Moncada’s bust potential?
Klaw: Minor League Player of the Year doesn’t affect my opinion of a player – it’s just a vote. I think the swing itself leads to swing and miss and a major hole that he’s going to struggle to close.

Jack C.: If Lucas Erceg puts on another 10-15 pounds of muscle, could he be a legitimate 30 HR guy? Obviously, some other things have to break his way, but I like his upside.
Klaw: The swing isn’t built for that.

J.J.: Keith, you’re put in charge of Top Chef next season and can do whatever you want. What would you do? What city would you film out of?
Klaw: Nashville deserves it.

Joseph: What do you think about Brandon Marsh? I know he didn’t play, and was injured, but reports going into the draft sounded very encouraging
Klaw: Yep, that’s about right – encouraging, but we need to see him face pro pitching. The injury was a stress fracture in his lower back that isn’t supposed to cause any long-term problems.

HugoZ: Say, isn’t citing a “Nobel Prize winning” economist to support your point just an appeal to authority?
Klaw: No, because I didn’t cite his prize as the reason his argument was valid. His argument was valid because it matched mine!

Jeff: What are your thoughts on Conor Jones, Cards rookie? Any consideration for this list or 100-150 ranking?
Klaw: No consideration. Needs to get the Virginia out of his delivery.

Nelson: Thinking of Mike Soroka’s justified exclusion from you too 100 would a young Tom Glavine make it at a similar stage in his career? If so, why?
Klaw: Glavine probably wouldn’t make it, because I’ve never projected a pitcher to get a strike zone six inches wider than everyone else’s.

Klaw: That’s all for this week – thank you as always for the questions and for reading all that content this week. Just missed column runs tomorrow, org reports next week, and other stuff, with another chat likely next Friday. Have a good weekend, everyone.

La La Land.

My top 100 prospects ranking is rolling out this week, with prospects #40 to #21 in today’s post. Over at Paste, I reviewed the new edition of Citadels, a classic game from 2000 that plays 2-8, and comfortably plays five-plus – I’d say it’s best with at least four.

Imagine if Once were set in L.A., opened with a classic musical-film song and dance number, and starred two ridiculously beautiful people wearing nice clothes and singing happier songs?

Once didn’t get the love it deserved from the Oscars, although it later became a cult hit and a Tony Award-winning musical. La La Land is a lot more ambitious and bigger-budget than Once was, and it’s going to win a lot more Academy Awards, but at their hearts are quite similar stories about love affairs that just can’t last, set to music.

Of course, that’s a bit glib – La La Land is more than just that. It’s part homage to the bygone era of the big Hollywood musical. It’s a feast for the eyes, with vivid colors in the background and on Emma Stone. It’s a little bit parody, and then it folds a little back in on itself and plays along with its own gag. It’s also a really good time, which makes it a rarity among the Best Picture nominees this year. La La Land is an outright pleasure to watch, even with the half-and-half ending, and with so many movies draped in grief, regret, sorrow, and isolation this year, it stands out even more.

Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling play Mia and Seb, two beautiful people struggling in their careers in LA – she an aspiring actress working in a coffee shop, he a jazz pianist playing Christmas music in a nightclub and then, in a sight gag that Stone turns into something much more, in a bad ’80s cover band. They meet more than once and don’t hit it off right away, but eventually the movie keeps pushing them together until there’s a spark, along with a song about how there’s no spark between them. Eventually, he gets a medium break, playing in a jazz-pop band led by his old frenemy Keith (played by John Legend), which forms the first wedge between the star-crossed lovers, although they manage to careen back and forth until the movie’s epilogue, five years later, where we see that, even in the movies, sometimes you just can’t have everything after all.

This is a musical, but not an old-time musical. If you just saw the opening scene, a huge ensemble dance number set in a traffic jam on a highway on-ramp, you’d expect something like the classics, where people just spontaneously start dancing while singing their dialogue. Instead, this is a regular movie with a handful of songs, and it isn’t until the end, when Emma Stone sings for her Oscar with “The Audition Song” (earning the movie one of its two Best Song nominations) near the very end, that we get another flashback to the halcyon days of Hollywood. Did critics who’ve said of La La Land that “they don’t make movies like this any more!” realize that Hollywood never made movies like this in the past?

Stone really owns this film in just about every way. Her character is better-developed, more three-dimensional, and shows real growth over the film. When Mia and Seb have their first quarrel as lovers, Mia holds her own in the argument, and Stone manages to portray inner turmoil on a face that’s outwardly composed until Seb finally insults her enough for her to leave. That’s Stone’s greatest achievement in the movie – her character is often put in situations where she’s turning from one emotion to another in a flash, and she can do this without making you aware that this is just someone acting.

The movie also uses her as a blank canvas of sorts, running her through an array of dresses in solid, vibrant colors that seemed to underscore the fact that, hey, we’re in California, where everything is sunny and bright and colorful all the time. It doesn’t hurt that she can get away with wearing all of those colors, or that her eyes seemed to be green in one scene and blue in another, but it ensures that your eyes are on her in nearly every scene.

Gosling, meanwhile, can turn on the charm when his character permits, but Seb is prone to this sort of insular, sulking behavior that I thought was as offputting as his strange amalgam of New York and Philly accents. And neither of these two is winning any awards for dancing, although, as always, we must give more credit to the woman for dancing backward and in heels.

Some of the L.A. jokes were a little too on the nose – the Prius gag, the gluten-free line – and the movie is funnier when it draws humor from situations rather than punchlines. When Seb is trying to explain jazz to Mia, and she answers with, “What about Kenny G?” it’s his reaction that drives the entire scene. He is totally beyond exasperated, like he wants to claw the skin off his face, yet is so passionate about the subject and obviously smitten with her that he tries to talk her down off the smooth-jazz ledge. It’s probably my favorite Gosling scene in the movie, especially since Seb’s ego returns to the center of his character towards the end of the film.

The movie ends with a dream sequence that shows an alternate reality five years on, what might have happened if things went … well, the other way, and I think here director and writer Damien Chazelle did two things: paid homage to classic musicals in more explicit fashion, and reminded the Academy just one more time to vote for him. I caught direct allusions to An American in Paris and Royal Wedding, and Funny Face, but I’m no expert on the genre and assume I missed many more. In that sense, it was the most engrossing part of the movie – you’re looking at the flip side of the movie’s internal reality, and also watching the two of them move through a rolling reference to Hollywood history.

I’ve seen four of the Best Picture nominees and hope to see as many as eight – I have zero interest in a Mel Gibson movie, and even less in that particular one – although I might only get Lion after the awards ceremony. Of the four I’ve seen, I think La La Land would get my vote. It just does more, and does more well, than Moonlight or Manchester by the Sea, both great movies but less ambitious than this one. I think any would be a worthy winner, but I rank things, and I currently have La La Land at #1.