Stick to baseball, 1/12/19.

No ESPN+ content this week, as I’m working on the prospect rankings and saving those extra bullets in the hope that someone like Bryce Harper or Manny Machado will eventually sign. I did hold a Klawchat on Thursday.

My latest review for Paste covers the deduction board game Cryptid, one of my top ten games of 2018, in which each player gets one clue, and you need to deduce all other players’ clues to identify the one hex on the variable board where the Creature is hiding for that specific board and set of clues. It’s quite fun, like a board game with a puzzle at its heart.

And now, the links…

All the Birds in the Sky.

Charlie Jane Anders was a founding editor of io9, the Gawker subsite dedicated to science fiction and fantasy, so it’s no surprise that her debut novel All The Birds in the Sky combines those genres and works in many tropes common in those areas, especially coming-of-age novels from the fantasy realm. Despite a slow ramp-up that doesn’t hint at the novel’s greater ambitions, the story builds to a bold climax that recalls many pioneering novels in these fields without ever coming off as derivative or unoriginal.

Anders’ gambit in All the Birds in the Sky is to create two synchronous, intertwined stories, one of which draws from straight fantasy and one from realistic, hard science fiction, with one character at the head of each, and contrast the complicated personal relationship between the two of them with the growing and apparently inevitable conflict that will occur between their two forces. Set in the near future where climate change and runaway capitalism have led to catastrophic weather patterns and rapid societal breakdown, the novel keeps raising the stakes between its two protagonists and pushes them into difficult, sometimes dangerous choices that only might help save the world.

Patricia and Lawrence are those two central characters, both misfits in their junior high school, albeit for different reasons. Patricia lives with her overbearing, judgmental parents, and a too-perfect older sister whose bullying of Patricia borders on the sociopathic. Lawrence lives on the other side of town, with warmer parents who don’t quite understand him, both of whom gave up ambitions of bigger careers to settle into working-class malaise. Patricia discovers one day that she can talk to animals, if only briefly, and ends up following a chatty bird to a giant tree in the middle of their forest where the birds are holding their Parliament (which is not restricted to owls). Lawrence is a gifted hacker who scavenges parts and builds a supercomputer in his closet, giving it a machine-learning algorithm that allows it to grow by talking to real people online, one of whom is Patricia. Of course, both kids are badly bullied – to such a cruel extent that reading the first few chapters was painful – which pushes them together but later pulls them apart, something exacerbated by a guidance counselor who isn’t what he seems to be, and is acting on a vision of the future where the two lead opposite sides of a global conflict between science and magic that threatens to end the planet as we know it.

The prologue was tough sledding, but once Anders gets her characters out of school, thanks to a dramatic flourish where Patricia rescues Lawrence from misery and possible death at a military academy of dubious merit, the pace picks up and the nonrealistic elements, both magic and fictional science, contribute more to the development of both the story and the two characters. Both Patricia and Lawrence are flawed, due to immaturity and the challenges of each of their upbringings, and then are pushed into situations, Patricia by her classmates at magic school and Lawrence by colleagues at a Boring Company-like startup, for which they aren’t well-prepared. Anders’ greatest achievement in the novel is showing those characters’ growth even through failures, one of which would be particularly traumatic, so that they are better prepared when the climax of the story arrives and the decisions they must make have the largest consequences yet.

All the Birds in the Sky will remind you of many great novels in these genres without ever drawing too heavily on any one source. The entire tenor of the book brought the great Magicians trilogy to mind, including the emphasis on the flaws in the two characters and how events in our youth can have long-lasting effects on our personalities and life choices well into adulthood. The influence of the major YA fantasy series like Harry Potter or The Chronicles of Narnia is evident in the background, but never overt, and any similarities are muted by the presence of the parallel sci-fi strand around Lawrence. He’s something out of a Heinlein novel, but better, more well-rounded and a lot more aware of the existence of women as actual people than anything Heinlein ever dreamed up.

I expected the ultimate battle between science and magic in this novel to play out differently, perhaps as some sort of faith/reason allegory, but it doesn’t, and that’s just how Anders rolls – so much of this novel sets you up in a comfortable, familiar way, and then resolves matters in a way that defies expectations without cheap surprises. All the Birds in the Sky won the Nebula Award for Best Novel in 2017, beating The Obelisk Gate (a result that was flipped for the Hugo), and I certainly agree with that result. It’s a fun, smart, compelling read, appropriate for young and full-grown adults alike.

Next up: Rivers Solomon’s An Unkindness of Ghosts.

Klawchat 1/10/19.

My latest game review for Paste looks at the deduction game Cryptid, where three to five players try to identify the location of the Creature by deducing the other players’ clues while trying to hide their own. It’s excellent.

Keith Law: It’s half past four and I’m shifting gears. Klawchat.

Bmosc: Keith, love the chats and content on the site. I always enjoy your levelheaded and logical takes on baseball and other issues. As a Yankee fan, who do you think would present more value, Harper or Machado, and how disappointed should I be that it seems Hal is more intent on pocketing the ridiculous revenue than he is on closing the gap b/w the Yanks and other contenders?
Keith Law: Either would be a big help – and yes, you should be frustrated. All owners have the money to improve, but the consensus among owners is that they should pocket more of the profits rather than passing it along to labor. Personally, I think Machado is a better fit for the Yanks, but if they signed Harper they’d make it work.

TE: With all the talk of Kyler Murray and the NFL draft, what does this mean for the A’s? Does he have to break his contract? Would the A’s get compensation? It seems like a pretty raw deal for them, given that Boras likely assured the team he would sign and play baseball exclusively (otherwise they wouldn’t have drafted him).
Keith Law: Right now it means nothing at all. He’s only declared for the NFL draft, which has no impact on the A’s or his baseball contract. It only starts to matter if he doesn’t show up for spring training/the season, or leaves the team at some point. He could owe the A’s the entire bonus, and no, they’d get no compensation. I suppose he’d make a lot more money in the short term, but there is no amount of money you could offer me that would make me consider risking traumatic brain injuries by playing football.

Ron: Astudillo have a roster spot this spring? Maybe should have one for being able to help out at a couple positions? Is the bat real? Thanks!
Keith Law: He can do enough with the bat that he should be on the roster. I don’t think he’s a regular, if that’s what you’re asking.

PA Prospects: You going to see Chris Newell play at any point this season? Any other SE PA prospects to look at?
Keith Law: Yep, I’ll see him and the younger Siani brother. Both are about 40-45 minutes from me.

dave from boston: Do you see the Redsox using Chris Sale once every five or six of his starts as an opener, pitching an inning or two only, in order to save wear and tear on him? Would you ever recommend something like this?
Keith Law: Not really sure that would do anything to help.

Chip: Does Houston’s recent draft history (hitting big w/Correa and Bregman and lots of hope for Tucker, missing on Appel and Aiken for various reasons) inform us at all as to what Elias likely does at 1/1? How does Rutschman compare to Wieters?
Keith Law: I don’t think it informs anything. There’s no consensus #1 (not Rutschman, not Witt Jr.) and they may simply try to cut the best deal among the pool of candidates and then try to go over slot multiple times with later picks, as the Astros did in the Correa year, and the Phillies and Twins did in ’16 and ’17.

Marvin: Instead of stalking that girl on Twitrter, do you think Trevor Bauer would have been better off tracking down where she went to school and/or worked, then tattling to her principal/dean and or boss while demanding that she be expelled or fired?
Keith Law: That would be seriously fucked up. What an entirely normal question.

Jo-Nathan: Hey Keith, is there any way to access to your work in Canada now that everything is behind ESPN+? I emailed and called ESPN weeks ago but I haven’t received a response. Very odd that they don’t want to take my money anymore (I get that its to block me from streaming content but I would gladly pay the same price to access writing content alone).
Keith Law: Unfortunately I don’t know of an answer yet. I’m sorry.

Susie: Do you see Ian Anderson as a top of the rotation type in the near future? Any concerns with the spin rate of his arsenal?
Keith Law: I do not have concerns about anyone’s spin rate unless the hitters start hitting it. The goal here is not maximizing spin rate, but maximizing results. If improving one’s spin rate gets better results, great, but when the results are good (as Anderson’s have been), why would we concern ourselves with his spin rate either way? (By the way, I have never heard anyone say his spin rates are poor.)

Dana: I think every MLB team should be forced to disclose their revenue and spend a certain percentage of it on player salaries. Agree?
Keith Law: Yes. You should go run the MLBPA.

Dusty: Any update on The Leftovers? I’ve been anxious to see what you thought of the 2nd and 3rd seasons.
Keith Law: I have no immediate plans to continue watching. I let my HBO subscription lapse a while ago.

Chris: What are your thoughts on all the Mets moves last weekend?
Keith Law: They keep trading dollars for 80 cents. Lockett is a waiver claim; Plawecki is at least a solid backup. The Houston deal was worse – Santana is a real prospect, Adolph has tools, while the return was an up and down type and an NP. I had multiple texts from scouts that day asking what the Mets were thinking.

Zarathustra: Do you have any book recommendations for someone who has read (and enjoyed) just about everything Richard Russo has written?
Keith Law: I would say Ann Patchett’s work – she lacks his wry humor, but her novels are also intensely humanist, with well-developed characters and real storylines built around the most universal emotions and themes.

Klentack: Which player fits better – Harper (due to LH power) or Machado (3B more position of need) for Phillies??
Keith Law: Again, either. I’m not sure there’s a club that couldn’t use both. Maybe the Rockies?

Lance: I just read an interesting article about Will Smith. I had no idea how effective he was last year. With his salary and control years, is it possible the Giants could get more for trading him than they would for Bumgarner?
Keith Law: I think the glut of relievers on the market would make that hard.

John: Hey Keith, did you ever write a review for D.H. Lawrence’s The Rainbow? Was curious to see your thoughts.
Keith Law: Never read it. Didn’t enjoy Women in Love.

Phil: Is Adames good enough at SS to stay there until Franco arrives, or does he move earlier?
Keith Law: I’m not sure either is a long-term shortstop; the best SS in the system is probably Fox.

Chris: Would the Yankees have been better off signing Dozier to play 2B and move Torres to SS instead of signing Tulo?
Keith Law: In the abstract, sure, but it’s an $8.5 million difference.

Jim: Hey, Keith. So reports are Dozier has signed with the Nats for 1/$9M. Good deal (2018 was an aberration) or bad (2018 was the first step off the cliff)?
Keith Law: Overpay, but the Nats probably have the greatest benefit from each marginal win, so it may not be an overpay for them specifically. Hell, I’m glad at least one GM is out there to win some games.

HugoZ: Now that the Braves definitely have the #9 pick this year, should it be a position player?
Keith Law: It should be the best player.

Jim: What is your take on the Braves firing Bridges and Clark?
Keith Law: Change in direction for the department. I know both guys, respect them quite a bit, and expect they’ll be out of work for about 20 minutes.

Joe Random: why do you think Kingery struggled last year? were there signs he will bounce back this year?
Keith Law: I don’t think it helped that he had to play so much on the left side of the infield, for which he is ill-suited.

Mark: Do you think it’s fair to judge past player performance on metrics that are valued more today for hall of fame consideration or does context of the era matter?
Keith Law: Other than maybe framing, what has really changed? People who claim OBP wasn’t valued are talking out of their asses – everyone knew making outs was bad. It was undervalued on the market, or as a tool for projection, but we have stuff back to Branch Rickey’s time about the value of getting on base.

BMonster: Do you have a target date for releasing your top 100? Thanks!
Keith Law: I believe I announced this last chat – it starts January 28th.

Mark: Do you think Andujar is a good fit for the Padres? Obviously 3B is a need, and they can be patient on his defense. What kind of package would it take to get him?
Keith Law: No, I do not.

Joe Random: how do you think Pache’s bat will develop? can he develop average power?
Keith Law: He already has average power.

Justin: Are you anticipating a labor strike with the way free agency has gone the past 2 years?
Keith Law: I’m anticipating a difficult negotiation, but that doesn’t have to be a strike/lockout.

Jay from southern IL: The local media is really talking up Cardinals prospects Malcom Nunez, Jhon Torres, and Joerlin de lo Santos. All are very young and far away, but I was wondering if you had opinions on these three? (Looking to eliminate the home team bias)
Keith Law: Torres is on my Cardinals rankings, which again you’ll see later this month.

Alex: Hi Keith.My girlfriend and i are expecting our first kid.any book recommandations to help with whats ahead?thank you
Keith Law: The Happiest Baby on the Block.

Chris: Would you rather give Bryce Harper a 10-year, $320M deal with a couple of opts out or a six-year, $240M deal with one opt out?
Keith Law: The six-year deal.

Nate: Keith, I find it almost incomprehensible that the reporting of only a few teams being in legitimate conversations with Harper and Machado. 26 year old generational talents hitting free agency just doesn’t happen. Do you think there is a lot more going on behind the scenes or is the new CBA really having that large effect on the way teams are looking to spend money?
Keith Law: The luxury tax cum salary cap is obviously having an effect, but it feels … collusive.

Andy: How disappointed were you in the golden globes, and do you think the Oscars will follow suit?
Keith Law: Disappointed is the wrong word – it hardly affects me at all. I do like seeing good work rewarded, whether it’s films, books, TV, music, because that can drive more of an audience to that work, and thus give the artists in question more money and opportunities to create more.

Rick C: Is there anything to the Bridges and Clark firing, or is it really just one of those proverbial changes in direction?
Keith Law: That’s all it is.

Dustin: I’ve finally begun work on Smart Baseball and am about 2/3 of the way through it. Will the final section include a best practices manual for making my father- and brother-in-law read it so we can have some intelligent conversations about MLB for a change?
Keith Law: Um …. yyyyyyyes.

Nils: Sorry, with the link: https://gizmodo.com/how-cartographers-for-the-u-s-military-inadvertent…
Keith Law: Thanks!

Justin: will there be a write up on the Brewers signing of Grandal?
Keith Law: Probably not. Prospect writing time.

Dagoberto Campaneris: $2 million for Shelby Miller — is there upside for the Rangers there? Or is Miller just irretrievably broken after all the injuries the past few years?
Keith Law: Coming back from TJ, very reasonable risk.

Justin: Assuming the Pirates have the ability to add, say, $15 million on payroll, what FA seems like an obvious fit for them? I’m specifically thinking they should take a shot on Lowrie for SS for a year (until Cole Tucker can move him to 2b), but you’ve always liked Newman.
Keith Law: I also don’t think Lowrie can handle short.

Brent: Hi, Keith, hope you’re well. Do you have a sense yet if Corey Ray is likely to reappear in your top 100?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

LukeM: You are going to get a million questions about them so Just get it out of the way and tell us who you predict Harper and Machado end up with?
Keith Law: Nah. I’ve never liked those predictions – it would be based on so little. When I talk to GMs or other top execs I don’t waste time asking them about that stuff. Their time is valuable and my access to it is finite, so I’d rather ask them about stuff they might really want to discuss candidly.

Jason: Whats the deal with grandal signing a one year deal? I love it as a brewers fan but couldn’t he have gotten a better multi-year deal?
Keith Law: On talent, sure. The market is bad this winter, and I think his poor October and reputation for not working well with pitchers hurt his market further.
Keith Law: That reputation goes back to San Diego, FWIW. I don’t think this is just “Kershaw hates him” or something.

Jimmy: Would it be a stretch to see Madrigal in the majors this year?
Keith Law: No, but I think his ceiling is really low.

Jack : Are you rooting for a Harper/Robles/Soto outfield for the next 6 years? I honestly think it has all timer potential if Bryce returns.
Keith Law: That would be tremendous, but it feels unlikely?

Tom: I think that Trevor Bauer question might have been in reference to something Darren Rovell did.
Keith Law: Ah. I missed that. I have contacted employers when I’ve thought I was threatened, though. I think that’s justified. Calling for someone to be expelled, though … jeez.

Canadian Jesus: Why isn’t the ability to have a high walk rate considered a tool? It doesn’t really seem like something that should be lumped into the hit tool with bat-speed etc…?
Keith Law: It’s a skill, but in Toronto we made it a separate grade on the scouting report, and I think now pretty much all teams do that in some fashion.
Keith Law: The tools are physical, though. Your plate discipline is a skill.

Kyle: Given all the recent issues with Facebook, do you have any misgivings about using it? Do you utilitize it for personal use or only work? I try to use it less and less (deleted the app) but so many friends and family use it for planning events or keeping in touch that it’s hard to step away. Curious how you feel about it.
Keith Law: I definitely have those misgivings. I do still use it for my public page (@keithlawwriter) and to communicate with a small number of friends who use Messenger all the time.

Stephen: In your opinion: Top 3 front offices in MLB? Bottom 3 front offices? Would love to see that list expanded in longer form too.
Keith Law: Nope. Never doing that.

Bradley: Thoughts on the Stewart grievance? Seems weird that his camp would claim he didn’t receive the 40% offer when something like that would easily be proved/disproved. Which apparently the Braves did as Stewart has already reported lost the grievance. Was this just spite? or was there something more to this? Any connections to the recent firings?
Keith Law: Was that his camp’s claim? I hadn’t heard that aspect. I thought the claim was that the injury didn’t merit the 60% cut.

Paul: How can mlb discuss pace of play when the off season has been a total snooze fest? Do you think these slow winters hurt the sport?
Keith Law: Yes. The winter meetings used to be a great time for the sport to grab headlines in the dead of the offseason.

Derek: Isaac Paredes – do you think he has a good chance to hit his way up to AAA this summer and debut sometime in 2020? Thanks for chatting!
Keith Law: Yep, that all sounds right.

Ed: Who is someone in the White Sox minors besides Eloy to be excited about thia season?
Keith Law: Cease finished in AA; he could debut this year. Basabe or even Luis Gonzalez could surface too.

Luke: Thoughts on Keon Broxton? Seems like the only deal that the mets didnt get fleeced
Keith Law: His defensive numbers last year were extremely fluky in a tiny sample and he’s probably a .280-290 OBP guy. Whee.

Raphael: Hey Keith, there’s an uncomfortable situation in the UFC at the moment as Rachael Ostovich, who admiringly decided to still compete next weekend despite recent injuries she sustained at the hands of her husband, is on the same card as known domestic abuser Greg Hardy (UFC’s first event with ESPN). I’m not going to ask for your opinion on the sport or of Dana White and his decision, but rather, for your thoughts on Ostovich taking the “everyone deserves a second chance” stance in regards to Hardy and her husband. Should we let victims decide how we should view abusers, or is this attitude, even if it belongs to the victims, simply part of why domestic violence is such a big issue, in that the victims are unable to accept their abusers for the monsters that they truly are?
Keith Law: I know nothing of this situation, but will say 1) we should always listen to victims but 2) it’s very common for domestic violence victims to ‘stand up’ for their abusers, such as declining to press charges. It’s complicated. Supporting victims is the one thing we could probably all agree on.

Mac: How did all 30 teams come to the same conclusion at the same time that they prefer profits over winning? Somethings not right.
Keith Law: It’s kind of weird, right?

PD: Thoughts on triple restaurant week?
Keith Law: should I know this? I think Philly’s restaurant week is coming up, actually.

Tom: What are your expectations for Shane Bieber? Think last year’s peripherals largely carry over and we see the ERA come down a fair amount?
Keith Law: Always going to be a big HR guy.

LukeM: Which board game, that you played for the first time in 2018, was your favorite?
Keith Law: Everdell. I wrote up my top ten for the year. That covers new games, but there were pre-2018 games I played for the first time and loved, including Sagrada. I also finally got and played Clank! in the last week and it’s pretty fun, if a bit luck-driven.

Gary: Is Ramos at 2/18m a better deal for the Mets than the 4/60m Grandal supposedly turned down?
Keith Law: Definitely. My favorite Mets move of the winter.

Clete: You a Tres Barrera guy? On any of the Nat’s catcher prospects?
Keith Law: He’s an org guy for me.

Marcus: I hate the “back in my day” person, but I’m lost on this one. My wife is doing a long-term sub position, and despite students refusing to turn work in on time–or even do it–she has been instructed not to fail anyone for anything. I can understand passing a student who may not do great work but is trying, but just shoving the problem on to the next grade…does that make any sense?
Keith Law: Sounds like a systemic issue – probably they don’t want the hassle of forcing a student to repeat a level. I don’t think that helps the child at all.

Matt: Did you see the movie Eighth Grade?
Keith Law: Not yet.

Andres: I know this is a sports/books/games/music type of chat, but in a simple answer — who’s most to blame for the government shutdown?
Keith Law: The guy who loves Wall and can’t stop talking about Wall.

Sloan: If you were Machado, and money was equal, would you join the Phillies, Yankees or White Sox?
Keith Law: The money is never equal. It’s just not – there are different tax considerations for each market, costs of living, etc.

Brandon: Do you think the recent signings of Grandal and Dozier to 1 year deals means that A.J. Pollock could be heading for a similar deal?
Keith Law: I’d be floored.

Sloan: Thoughts on the Herrera signing?
Keith Law: Surprised a guy who missed half of last year with an injury got that deal.

Alan: Do you think that Peter Alonso will be able to overcome his inability to field to be successful at the MLB level.
Keith Law: I think he’s a 40 defender right now. Either that gets a lot better, or he goes to the AL to DH.

Chris: Best case scenario for Tulo is to somehow stay healthy til Didi returns and give them a dead cat bounce half season, right?
Keith Law: Yep. Aubrey Huff had one of those for about four months. Then he cratered.

Thomas: What of peak offense year would you expect from Willy Adames given his hit and power tool? Is he a .300/.375/.475 type or is that overselling his power?
Keith Law: I think that oversells his power, not his hit tool, although with the silly ball maybe not.

Ben : I am so down with your take on Life and Times of Michael K. Couldn’t get engaged with it. Especially in comparison to the Road, which my eyes were like magnetically attached to.
Keith Law: Yeah, I enjoy fabulist novels but didn’t connect with that one.

Anthony: Grandal an overpay at 1/$18.25M?
Keith Law: No.

Mitch: Do you feel it’s likely that Edgar makes the leap into the HOF this time around?
Keith Law: No doubt.

Patrick: Waiting to board a flight to Chicago. Any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law: Monteverde! Publican, Little Goat, any of Rick Bayliss’ places.

HugoZ: Well yes, but is the best player at nine likely to be a position player?
Keith Law: I honestly don’t know that at this point. It’s probably 55/45 that the best player available is a pitcher, because teams up top tend to avoid HS pitchers, so they get pushed down a bit. It’s also just a bad college crop.

Jeff: Are you a believer in the revamped swing of Kevin Smith (Blue Jays)? Is he a possible regular in the bigs
Keith Law: No. Utility guy.

John: Will Ross Stripling be back in the rotation and pitching like a No.2/3 guy this year?
Keith Law: I think he’s a 5.

Phil: Will smith or Keibert Ruiz?
Keith Law: That’s not close – Ruiz is an elite prospect.

Jordan: Do you think Conforto can return to an all star type of hitter this season? Had a really promising second half. Feels like the Mets rushed him back from shoulder surgery.
Keith Law: Yes and I think that’s probably the reason.

seanj8: MLB wants to expand, so what two cities make the most sense to be awarded teams? Mine are Nashville and Montreal. Portland gets some consideration too.
Keith Law: Nashville is growing like mad, but even so, it would be the second smallest market in MLB. Indianapolis actually has more people (not that I’d put an MLB team there either). Only Milwaukee is smaller. Austin and San Antonio’s MSAs are both over 2 million, and they’re 80 miles apart from each other. That’s a lost opportunity there.

Jeff D.: If you’re Andrew Friedman and offer Harper a short term/high value deal which he rejects, what’s your next move to improve the team?
Keith Law: Offer him a longer deal.

Jerry: Who do you see being the Astros 4th and 5th starters by June? Assuming no injuries of course….
Keith Law: Josh James and Forrest Whitley.

Granfalloon: How much responsibility do you think you and other saber-oriented writers, who spent the last 20 years arguing online that free agent contracts were bloated and that teams were overpaying for veterans, bear for the current state of things where franchises are being cheap and not fairly compensating players? In retrospect, do you think y’all shouldn’t have been making those arguments?
Keith Law: That’s dumb for a few reasons, not least among which is that more analytical writers have talked up players like Harper and Machado, hitting free agency at 26, and their markets are thin too.

Green Book : I am a piece of shit movie that is racially bananas. What is happening and how am I winning things when movies like Beale Street, Favourite, Blackkklansman, and Roma are out there. (Granted this was still a poor year IMO on the film front).
Keith Law: I think it was a tremendous year for movies. I have 40 films ranked over Green Book.

Chris D: What do you think about Nathaniel Lowe? Will he carve out an above average MLB career?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Frank Thomas (not that one): What would your solution be to fix what has become a major problem in MLB as far as owners spending on MLB talent? Salary cap? Higher floor? Less service time before a player hits FA? Limiting lengths and values of max contracts a la the NBA?
Keith Law: Speed up free agency, raise the minimum salary for 0-2 guys.

Mat: Who’s your #1 Prospect for the June 2019 MLB Draft?
Keith Law: TBD. There isn’t a clear one yet.

Ricky: Favorite meal to make during the week when you are tight on time?
Keith Law: You can spatchcock and roast an entire chicken in about 45 minutes. I also like to do simple chicken cutlets – sometimes just panko breading, sometimes adding sesame seeds and maybe some chopped sunflower seeds – as a main dish because they scale well and reheat nicely in the oven.

Mark: Would you ever consider writing a book about your experience as a GM? I think it would be very fun to read about trades, player development, constructing a team, etc…
Keith Law: I’d love to, but I’d need to be a GM first.

Sean: I’m thinking now is the time to go all in if I’m running the brewers. So close last year, why not trade for Bumgarner and sign Keuchel?
Keith Law: Don’t think they need two starters – they have Burnes and Woodruff, both good, both ready for the rotation.

Sean: Hi, Keith. Thank you for doing these and I hope all is well. I wanted to get your opinion on what the Padres should do this offseason. Stand pat? Focus on 2020? Go after an Ace? I still think we’re a year away and would hate to see us make another move like the Hosmer signing of a year ago.
Keith Law: Focus on 2020, try to dump one of Myers or Hosmer for a bad contract at another position.

Econ: Is there a space somewhere in between where “players deserve more” and “overpaying marginal players is a bad idea” that can exist?
Keith Law: The idea of overpaying free agents also oversimplifies the part about how the value of a marginal win varies by team. An extra win for the Nationals, who are in a decent-sized market and really should be a playoff team, is worth more than the same extra win is to the Padres, who are not contenders, or even the Reds, who need to pick up maybe ten or more wins to become contenders.

Everett L: Did Nico Hoerner change how you rate him based on his play in the AFL?
Keith Law: No. I like to watch and think about players there, but try not to make dramatic changes to evaluations off that look because it’s not normal minor league play.

AGirlHasNoName: Ok, I have a crystal ball, if the Cubs cut Russell they win 91 games and miss the playoffs, if they keep him they win 94 and make the playoffs. As a fan, do you still want them to cut him? Is there a point where the cost isn’t worth the benefit?
Keith Law: Then he’s more than worth his salary – the playoff berth is worth a lot more than the marginal $6.5 million or so to keep him. It becomes a moral decision. I personally would not employ a player who did what he did, such as choking his wife (which, I’ve mentioned many times before, is a major precursor to homicide).

Sean: Giants looking at signing potentially trading Panik and signing LeMahieu, that would be a net positive IMO. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Depends on what you get for Panik.

TomBruno23: If Bumgarner is available, I think the Cardinals should be all over that. Fits in well with their older player/short term contract roster and wouldn’t/shouldn’t cost too much in terms of a trade. Dakota Hudson for a year of Bumgarner?
Keith Law: Hudson’s probably a reliever so I’d do it.

Roma : I think I *might* be the easiest choice for Best Picture in the last 10 years. This is like Mike Trout competing against Mike Moustakas, Jean Segura, and a replacement level player who is also racist.
Keith Law: Yes, but I still think A Star is Born wins.
Keith Law: I’d vote for Roma among the likely nominees.

Canadian Jesus: I get your answer, but if plate discipline is a skill shouldn’t fielding be classed as a skill as well? There is obviously way more to fielding than just range or loose hips.
Keith Law: You’re being a little pedantic here, but also, much of fielding is determined by physical skill.

LukeM: Who is a comparable player to Nolan Gorman? Tons of power but strikeouts are a concern. Is a Joey Gallo or Khris Davis comparison fair?
Keith Law: I like him more than I ever liked Davis as a prospect. I think Gorman will hit a bit more than Gallo. Gallo has the most raw power I’ve ever seen on a prospect.

Adam: Is there any logic to the Padres signing Hosmer to that big deal last year and now going back to penny pinching mode? I get that Hosmer contract was a mistake but cant deter you from making any other big financial decisions.
Keith Law: Are they pinching pennies or just avoiding a second mistake?

Spiny Norman: Dinsdale?
Keith Law: He’s nailed to the coffee table.

Andrew Friedman: Who would you rather trade…Verdugo or Ruiz/Smith
Keith Law: Verdugo. I think he’s good but easier to replace than Ruiz.

Ridley Kemp: Thank you for your tireless…well, it’s probably pretty tiring…rebuttal of the antivaxxers. The real danger they represent needs answering, but it can’t be fun.

Have you had a chance to read Michael Pollan’s How To Change Your Mind? I picked it up when my therapist told me she was reading it for the third time. As a non-user of controlled substances, I still found it fascinating and I learned more about the the brain and depression treatments than I have anywhere else.
Keith Law: I haven’t. I did just finish Leonard Mlodinow’s Elastic (as an audiobook), about the power of ‘flexible thinking,’ which also gets into a lot of how we come to conclusions and refuse to change them, often because our brains don’t even accept other possible interpretations or evidence.

Noah Syndergaard: We’re going to get Biden vs. Warren as a sequel to Clinton vs. Bernie, aren’t we? Team Trump would love that.
Keith Law: Biden needs to step aside, now. Next generation, please.

Daniel: Considering the recent reports of MLB’s revenues, are there any competitive teams that can reasonably justify not being willing to spend above the tax? I’m a Braves fan, and considering those revenue reports, and the whole Cobb County/SunTrust Park thing, I really don’t understand why they’re not in on Harper. (Maybe they are, and AA is just really good at keeping it out of the media?)
Keith Law: I think that’s corporate ownership telling them not to spend.

Cjc: Thoughts on Chance Adams having a bounce-back year as a starter? Or is he just an up and down reliever?
Keith Law: Reliever only.

Dan: Hi Keith – thanks for all your work. With Kopech out this year and some important pieces that will at least begin the year in the minors, is 2020 a realistic expectation for the White Sox to start contending for their division? I’ll be honest, I have concerns with the development of Giolitto/Moncada/Rodon and others, and am afraid of the rebuild not panning out.
Keith Law: That division is weak enough that they should be doing what they’re doing – trying to go get a big star now, figuring he’ll be there for the next 4-5 years as the kids arrive and the team gets really good.

Matt W: So wait, do the Mets really not scout below full season ball?
Keith Law: That is correct.

Ben: Keith, you’ve been high on Willi Castro for a little while. But, others in the industry label him as a likely utilityman/fringe regular. Do you think he can be the Tiger’s answer at SS?
Keith Law: I do. High IQ guy, feel to hit, absolutely has to get stronger.

Biff: Do you have any insight into the slow development/ lack of improvement of Moniak ?
Keith Law: Swing issues, possible the team overrated the makeup.
Keith Law: Also, when I’ve seen him, he’s been unable to recognize spin.

Pat D: Since we expect the various veterans committees to make bad choices, which would be “worse”: McGriff getting in via committee (I think we all expect him to) or Vizquel getting in via BBWAA?
Keith Law: The committee’s picks nearly always suck. Vizquel getting in would be a real indictment of the BBWAA even as the electorate has been getting smarter.

Mark: Should cardinals offer Keuchel 1 year at 23M?
Keith Law: Shouldn’t every contender offer him that?

Archie: Any chance the Brewers give up Burnes or Hiura in a deal for Bumgarner?
Keith Law: No. That would be really stupid, and they’re not stupid.

BK: Does Brandon Marsh have any “star” upside?
Keith Law: yes.

JJ: what kind of pro does Kyler Murray project to be?
Keith Law: Enormous range of outcomes. Could make some All-Star teams. Could stall in AA. The guy is 1000 or so at bats behind where he should be at this age.
Keith Law: Maybe 800. You get the point.

Chris : Wouldn’t you rather have Plawecki as a back-up at a$1.5M than d’Arnaud at $4M?
Keith Law: Yes, because d’Arnaud is made of glass.

john: why do minor leaguers get paid so little??
Keith Law: Because MLB slipped a clause into the GOP Tax Bill from 2017 that protected them.

Concerned Teacher: You mentioned in a previous chat not having heard of the vaping company named Juul. I am a high school teacher and a parent I think you should familiarize yourself with them. Kids are entering high school already hopelessly hooked on nicotine because of these Juuls, which look very similar to a USB drive. They were the fastest start up company ever to reach $10B in.
Keith Law: I have now, of course. The Ringer called them a scam for Big Tobacco in a post today. Vile.

EG: Bryce harper will finish the year ranked top _____ in fWAR.
Keith Law: Ten.

Tony B: Is it better to vote for someone you view as a leader and can lead to unity in the nation or someone who you agree with their political views?
Keith Law: why not both girl dot gif

Aaron: Just curious, considering the options at most minor league ballparks, Do you ever eat at a stadium and if so what?
Keith Law: Almost never.

Joe: In general, I’m not a fan of relievers in the Hall of Fame. But if you go by the standards set by the guys already in, Wagner is a Hall of Famer, right? There are 7 pitchers who were primarily relievers in the HOF right now (including Smith), and I think it’s pretty easy to argue Wagner was more dominant than at least 3-4 of them. He just didn’t stick around a few more years and compile saves at the end of his career.
Keith Law: Wagner is better than Smith and probably better than Hoffman. I think he’ll sneak in.

Greg: Keith- Re: Kyler Murray. There’s been some argument that since he plays QB, and since the rules these days protect QBs to a nearly ridiculous degree, the risk to him is much less than if he played a different position. Jeff Samardzija playing baseball over being a tight end made sense, but QB is protected so much more than even two years ago. At this point if he were a catcher I think he’d take more foul balls of the head than he’d take hits to the head as a QB. I originally thought it was a bo-brainer to pick baseball for the reasons you mentioned, but the more I watch football and every roughing the passer penalty, it’s tough to imagine he’d rather ride buses for 4-5 years that be a starting QB in the NFL in 8 months.
Keith Law: It takes just one hit, even an illegal one, to wreck a guy’s life. And he’s small.

Sean: Did you happen to see Sean Doolittle’s thread on twitter regarding ways to improve the game? I think it’s great to see him interacting with fans directly, a lot of good points were made. Unlike Bauer, he seems to have a good head on his shoulders.
Keith Law: He’s one of the best humans in the sport and we are very fortunate to have him and Eireann as ambassadors for the game in general and for just being good, kind people.

Bob: Do you think Faedo can get back to a mid-rotation projection or is he more of a 4/5 type?
Keith Law: Probably reliever.

Andy: What do you think about the movie vice?
Keith Law: I’ll see it this weekend. Tried to see it Tuesday night but the showing was nearly sold out and I will not sit in the front row.

Michael: What did you think of Isle of Dogs?
Keith Law: My review.

Dan: What does the future hold for Sean Reid-Foley? He seemed likely to be in the opening day rotation but that was before they added Shoemaker and Richard to the mix.
Keith Law: Needs a better pitch for LHB or he’s not a starter.

Mark: Future value of Keston Hiura? Can he turn into a Daniel Murphy type player (high avg which helps the power play up, mediocre D)?
Keith Law: RHB so he won’t have the platoon issues.

Dell: Any chance Caleb Ferguson gets another shot to start? And are you out on Urias?
Keith Law: I’m not out on any Uriases that I can think of. If you mean Julio, we are in uncharted waters for someone with that injury.

Dan: Could you see Ronny Mauricio as a guy who could see a catastrophic rise in the rankings over the next 2-3 years?
Keith Law: That’s an interesting choice of adjectives there. He’s got enormous potential, though.

Bob: Any good books to help with anxiety?
Keith Law: Fully Present is my go-to recommendation.

Dr. Bob: What would happen if an MLB team bucked the trend and doubled the salaries of their minor league players?
Keith Law: A very angry phone call from Park Avenue.

Jake Lawson: Just FYI, if you ever check out the Round Rock Express, there’s a Salt Like BBQ in the parking lot. It’s not Franklin’s or Mickelthwait, but it’s miles ahead of most ballpark food.
Keith Law: I’ve actually been to that one. It was solid. Probably a 50.

Lou: Aside from Ruiz and Verdugo, have the Dodgers drained most of their elite talent from the farm?
Keith Law: No.

Rahn: I ask you this every offseason so here goes: Who is one Pirates prospect who most intrigues you and whose development you’ll be tracking closely?
Keith Law: Org reports run the week of February 4th.

Kacey: If a hs player was unknown and then hit their growth spurt and had an incredible year with their HS team, would they likely slip through the cracks because they aren’t known via their travel team?
Keith Law: No, unless he were in some really remote place that is generally undercovered – North Dakota, Alaska, something like that.

Archie: Is Billy Wagner the best small college player you have ever seen?
Keith Law: Dunno, Alex Bregman was a great small college player. He’s only about 5’8″.

Jim: How do you “speed up free agency”? Front offices would sign off on a deadline to signing players? How does that work?
Keith Law: A deadline would help, yes.

Bob: One report I’ve read on Kelenic warns he has some “tweener warning signs” in his profile. Is something you’d agree with?
Keith Law: No. Sounds like a bad source.

Danny: Do you think Deivi Garcia will be a starter and if not, can he be a set up or closer type?
Keith Law: Starter.

Dave: Did you do a review of into the Spider-Verse? Seemed to hate it during the Globes.
Keith Law: I didn’t review that or the two Disney entries. I found Spider-Verse cliched and unbelievably violent for a movie aimed at kids. It had a few laughs (Spider-Ham was legitimately funny). The resolution really didn’t do enough for the Miles character, either.

LukeM: Any thoughts on Malcolm Nunez for the Cardinals. Saw an article showing his ridiculous wRC+ this past year and he looks really promising. I know he’s super young and a long ways off but it’s fun to look for potential future superstars.
Keith Law: Do not use wRC+ to evaluate prospects. And Nunez went into the DSL with more real game experience than most of the competition. That’s not to say he’s a zero, but that this is serious stat-line scouting.

Mark: Did you do voices when you used to read to your daughter ?
Keith Law: Always. After a few books she’d demand it.

SpG: Unbelievably Violent? 80’a Kids were raised on Predator & Robocop, man… it was a love letter to comic book readers.
Keith Law: That doesn’t make it any less violent. And violence is a weak way to write your superhero story.

Kacey: When did white supremacist become an offensive term?
Keith Law: When did Rep. King’s party become comfortable with white supremacists in its house?

Mark: Just curious, given your love of gaming, have you ever played Magic: The Gathering? I know Longenhagen is a fan, and they’ve been making a push into eSports recently with their new Arena product.
Keith Law: No – not interested in CCGs as a genre.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – back to writeups for now. Thank you as always for reading and bearing with me this month. Still more calls to make and words to write. I promise to give you the best words!

The Life and Times of Michael K.

J.M. Coetzee has won two Booker Prizes, the first of them in 1983 for his parable The Life and Times of Michael K., a bleak, opaque novel that seems to draw from Kafka’s The Trial while also influencing Cormac McCarthy’s 2006 novel The Road. The novel was Coetzee’s immediate follow-up to Waiting for the Barbarians, another fable that also puts its main character through the ringer to make larger humanist points, although Michael K.‘s target, the apartheid system of South Africa at the time, seems more overt than that of Barbarians.

Michael K. is the main character, a somewhat simple man, born with a cleft lip and abandoned by his mother to an institution for most of his life, although when her health begins to fail she reconnects with him for entirely selfish purposes. They live in Cape Town, where he has a job as a gardener and she has one as a domestic servant, but when her health slips further and the country devolves into civil war, she asks him to bring her back to the town of her birth so she can die there. Stymied by a faceless bureaucracy that won’t issue him the permits required to leave the city, Michael builds a rickshaw to carry his mother to the countryside, but she dies before they reach their destination, which sets Michael on a perverse series of adventures that find him living off the land as a hermit, impressed into two different labor camps, accused of aiding rebel forces by growing vegetables for them, and eventually in a hospital where one kind doctor takes an interest in him just as he seems to have given up on living.

I compared Waiting for the Barbarians to the writing of fabulist Italo Calvino, and Michael K. has the same atmosphere, one of watching the action in the story at a greater remove, so that even where Coetzee provides detail on Michael’s surroundings – in the camps, for example, or when Michael plants sees to grow pumpkins and other winter crops while he’s living on his own in the valley – there’s a sense of distance and opacity throughout the text. Michael is an unknowable character, not a cipher to the reader but a man without definition even to himself, and thus his interactions with others – government forces, mostly, but occasionally residents of the towns through which he passes or other people in the labor camps – all have an amorphous tenor to them, as if Coetzee passed them through a filter before presenting them to the reader.

Coetzee is South African by birth and he implies that the civil war in the novel is between the white authorities, who still enforced the apartheid policy to subjugate the country’s black majority at the time of the book’s publication, and rebel forces that included people of color and those sympathetic to them. Most characters are not identified by race, although Michael is identified as “colored” early in the book, which would put him at immediate odds with the racialist white soldiers he meets. Yet beneath the theme of racial animus is a strong streak of individualist philosophy – Michael is happiest, if you could call it that, when he is living off the land, supporting himself, living daily with the simple purpose of sustaining himself, with no contact with others.

The Kafka parallel is perhaps a little too overt here. Michael K. has the same sort of experiences with intransigent, oblique authority figures, from the bureaucrats who won’t give him the permit to leave the city and then give him circular explanations for why to the soldiers and officers at the labor camp who explain that he can’t leave but he’s not a prisoner. His name is such an obvious nod to The Trial, and his experiences in the camps mirror those of Josef K. in detention, so that the result is too on the nose. (Wikipedia says Coetzee was also influenced by a German novel, Michael Kohlhaas, but I’m unfamiliar with it.)

Waiting for the Barbarians was bleak, and often more graphic, but I found I connected to both the protagonist and the themes of the novel more than I did to The Life and Times of Michael K., where Coetzee keeps the reader one degree farther away from the material. I can understand why it was honored and is still regarded as a great novel, but its literary merit far exceeds its accessibility.

Next up: Still reading Anna Burns’ Milkman, winner of the 2018 Man Booker Brize.

The Black Angel.

Cornell Woolrich’s name is scarcely heard today, although in his era he was one of the most important writers of pulp fiction, with his stories and novels adapted into acclaimed movies like Rear Window, The Bride Wore Black, and The Black Angel, the last of which is loosely based on his novel of the same name. The book isn’t easy to find in dead-tree versions, but it’s $1.99 right now for the Kindle and is also available on iBooks. First written in 1943 and adapted for film three years later, The Black Angel is classic noir as it follows a young woman on a desperate quest to exonerate her husband, convicted of capital murder, by finding out who really killed his mistress.

Alberta French is just 22 as the novel opens, and, as the narrator, tells of her wonderful love affair with the man she has now married, but whom she knows has been cheating on her because he’s stopped calling her by the nickname “Angel Face.” She figures out who his paramour is – a chorus girl named Mia Mercer – and goes to Mia’s apartment, but finds the woman’s corpse instead. Within hours, her husband, Kirk has been arrested, and the story skips through his trial and sentencing (to death) to get Alberta on the move, following just a few scant clues she swiped from Mia’s apartment to try to find her murderer. Woolrich then sends her on four missions, one to each of the names she found in Mia’s address book who might fit, each of which puts her in dangerous situations until she finally finds the real killer and nearly dies for it.

I’m a sucker for noir fiction, whether novels or films, and The Black Angel delivers that while avoiding at least a few of the worst clichés of the genre. Noir fiction was viewed as pulp in its own time, a style with commercial appeal but minimal literary or critical merit, and as a result much of what was published was hackneyed and predictable – material written to meet the low expectations of the market. The Black Angel has a female protagonist, which is rare enough, and then has her develop from a meek but determined woman into a clever if overconfident one by the end of the novel, someone who perseveres through failures (obviously, or the book would end rather early) and whose character changes as she learns from them. Woolrich also ditches much of the egg salad you’ll see in pulp short stories or radio programs of the era – the easy violence to jump the plot forward, the women all called up from central casting – to focus just on Alberta’s story and her increasingly involved attempts to deceive each of the suspects to try to figure out who killed Mia. It’s unsurprising given his own background as a failed writer of more serious fiction, but it makes Black Angel a good follow-up for folks who, like me, loved the work of Dashiell Hammett and Raymond Chandler but have already read their limited output.

I mentioned the film adaptation of The Black Angel above, but haven’t seen it yet; the story changes so that Alberta’s character, now named Catherine, has to pair up with a man to hunt down the murderer, with other substantial changes to the plot. Alberta’s character as the protagonist and de facto detective was one of the most interesting aspects of the book, so demoting her to half of a team with a big strong man to help her along seems like a downgrade.

Next up: Anna Burns’ Milkman, winner of the 2018 Man Booker Brize.

Music update, December 2018.

I posted my rankings of my top 100 songs of 2018 and my top 18 albums of the year in mid-December, so this monthly playlist is a little shorter than normal – plus artists tend to release less new material during the holidays. I still found fifteen songs worth sharing, though, a few of which were out in time for my year-end list. As always, you can access the Spotify playlist here if you can’t see the widget below.

Are We Static – Weight of Water. A new single from these British alt-rockers who draw on equal parts Britpop, new wave, and classic British psychedelia, this time featuring guest vocals by Sussex-based folk singer Talitha Rise.

White Lies – Finish Line. A middling follow-up to the strong lead singles ahead of the group’s forthcoming record Five, due out February 1st.

Blac Rabbit – Seize the Day. I was sure this was a new Tame Impala track the first time I heard it, but I suppose that’s a compliment, especially since I love that group’s ventures into psychedelic rock. Anyway, Blac Rabbit is a Brooklyn quartet whom Wikipedia tells me often draws comparisons to … Tame Impala.

Sleeper – Look At You Now. All the Britpop icons are getting back together; Sleeper reunited in 2017, and their first album in 22 years, Modern Age, will drop in March. I didn’t realize that in the interim lead singer/songwriter/seductress Louise Wener had written four novels. She still sounds the same, and this track has that same sort of slightly off-kilter riff that Sleeper’s best hits (“Delicious,” “Inbetweener,” “Nice Guy Eddie”) had.

Swervedriver – The Lonely Crowd Fades In The Air. Speaking of ’90s British bands making comebacks, this makes two good songs in three singles ahead of Swervedriver’s upcoming album, Future Ruins, their second since they reunited.

Lauren Ruth Ward – White Rabbit. Ward has put out two covers of classic rock tracks in the last month, this one, which I think is pretty strong and plays well to her vocal strengths, and a cover of the Doors’ “Break On Through (To the Other Side),” where she’s oddly restrained on a song that calls for a bit of bombast.

whenyoung – Given Up. Singer/bassist Aiofe Power looks like Riley Keough and sounds a lot like Dolores O’Riordan, which makes the band’s cover of the Cranberries’ “Dreams,” found on the same EP as this indie-pop track, eerily authentic to the original.

Anteros – Fool Moon. I think this is the most danceable song so far from this London quartet, who seem to dabble in all corners of indie rock.

Hinds – British Mind. A new single just a few months after this Spanish band released their second album, I Don’t Run, which featured one of my top 100 songs of the year in “Tester.”

Ten Fé – Echo Park. A bit of a change of pace from these guys, who specialize in ’70s-tinged soft rock that still manages to feel modern.

Lady Bird – Reprisal. These British punks made my top 100 this year with “Spoons,” and capped off their year with this single, more of the same with spoken lyrics and a catchy guitar riff beneath it.

The Raconteurs – Now That You’re Gone. A new song from the Jack White-led supergroup that accompanied a reissue of Consolers of the Lonely and will also appear on a (surprise!) new Raconteurs album in 2019.

Wheel – Vultures. Another one from my top 100, one of only two metal songs on the list (along with Ghost’s “Rats”), from a new Finnish prog-metal act who have promised a debut album in February.

Teeth Of The Sea – Hiraeth. Teeth of the Sea’s 2013 Master made my list of the best albums of that year, but they’d been quiet since 2015’s Highly Deadly Black Tarantula before this new seven-minute opus appeared last month, with more of the same experimental post-rock stylings, showing their ability to create eerie soundscapes is completely intact.

Children Of Bodom – Under Grass and Clover. I liked 2013’s Halo of Blood, especially for the track “Transference,” which is one of the best melodic death metal songs I’ve ever heard, but the 2015 follow-up I Worship Chaos went too far in the commercial direction (and then the silly death growls sounded even more ridiculous than ever). This track is the first single from their forthcoming album Hexed, due out in March, and I’m cautiously optimistic that they’re not going full In Flames on us.

Stick to baseball, 1/5/19.

Just one ESPN+ piece this week, due to holidays & my work on prospect rankings, this one looking at the Mariners’ signing of NPB star Yusei Kikuchi. I also held a Klawchat this week.

And now, the links…

Sweet Country.

The Australian film Sweet Country, now free on amazon prime, swept the AACTA Awards, that country’s equivalent to our Oscars, last month, taking home Best Film, Best Direction, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Editing, and a Best Lead Actor prize for first-time actor Hamilton Morris, capping off a sixteen-month run that saw it win major awards in Toronto and Venice as well as Best Feature Film at the Asia-Pacific Screen Awards. It’s a beautiful film to watch with expansive scenes of the northwestern Australian landscape, with a simple, timeless story of racial injustice that could have just as easily been set in the United States.

The details set the plot apart a bit, but the framework is familiar: A black man kills a white man in self-defense, flees, and is then tried for murder, with the gallows already built for him before the trial begins. Sam, played by Morris, is the black (aboriginal) man here, a hired hand for the Christian farmer Fred Smith (Sam Neill), who lends Sam and his wife Lizzie (Natassia Gorey-Furber, nominated for an AACTA for Best Supporting Actress) to their new neighbor, a disturbed, volatile war veteran named Harry March. While there for the day, Sam follows Harry’s directions to go do something away from the house, a pretext for Harry to rape Lizzie. On a later day, Harry borrows another hired hand and an aboriginal youth named Philomac, only to chain the kid up on suspicion of theft. When Philomac flees, a drunk Harry goes to Fred’s house looking for him, shooting down the door, after which Sam shoots him dead in self-defense and then takes flight across the outback.

Most of the action in Sweet Country takes place in that first act, which is followed by the extended search for Sam and Lizzie in act two, showing both pursuers and fugitives as they move across territory that is hostile in more ways than one; and then the trial in act three, where a young, progressive judge gives Sam a fair trial despite unfriendly locals and the racist sergeant who led the chase to capture him. Part of director Warwick Thornton’s achievement is weaving them seamlessly into one film despite massive, abrupt shifts in both tone and tempo. The first third is full of (Hannah Gadsby voice) tension, the second contrasts this gorgeous scenery with the injustice of the hunt for Sam and the knowledge that the desert could kill any of these men, and the third becomes an ad hoc courtroom drama without the courtroom, as the trial takes place in the street due to the lack of a town hall in the remote outpost where it occurs. They could play out as three different films, just sharing characters, but Thornton, working from a screenplay by David Tranter and Steven McGregor, keeps the narrative and pace together enough so the entire film can work as a unified piece. That plays out in surprising ways, especially during the trial where the tension comes from silence as much as it does from the revelations during testimony.

Sweet Country is a slow film in many ways, at least in contrast to the pace of most big-studio American releases, and probably would look even better on a big screen where the cinematography would play up, with the second act showing the variety of landscapes and climate types across the northern part of Western Australia. It’s also lighter on dialogue than mainstream films until the trial commences, which is why my attention started to drift during the middle third of the film. I especially appreciated Thornton’s decision to cloak the rape scene in complete darkness; while it would still likely trigger some people by sound, the entire sequence is pitch black on the screen. If you’ve even read the description here of the plot, you can probably guess the film’s ending, although it’s still powerful for the reactions of the characters rather than any real sense of surprise – and again feels timeless for its depiction of a black man trying to find justice in a white man’s world.

Klawchat 1/3/19.

Keith Law: I wish the world was flat like the old days. Klawchat.

Seth: Andrew Vaughn likely to be the first 1b only prospect to be drafted in the top 5 in a long time? If so, is it a reflection on his skills or a weaker draft class?
Keith Law: Possible, not likely. A reflection on the draft class either way.

Nick: Doesn’t it kind of feel like the Cubs are spiraling downwards towards mediocrity ?
Keith Law: No.

J: Trying to sift through the numerous Padres’ pitching prospects. Do you see Paddack, Quantrill, or Allen making any dent in 2019? Is Quantrill just an org guy at this point, or room for redemption?
Keith Law: Paddack for sure. The others possibly. Q is more than an org guy, but he’s also regressed a good bit since the first summer.

J: Framber Valdez. Good enough to start the season in Astros’ rotation?
Keith Law: I’d say probably not, since they’re contenders.

Trevor: Are you in favor of expansion and would it help solve the slow free agent market?
Keith Law: Yes, and probably not.

Ted: Klaw,

What’s your opinion on how we should view movies, music, etc. that was made during times when certain words or actions were, for lack of a better term, more “acceptable”? I was thinking about your recent comments about the Ten Years After song this past weekend when “Money for Nothing” came on the radio, which also infamously includes a homophobic slur. Mark Knopfler has always claimed he got the lyrics from a time he was in a New York appliance store and overheard a delivery worker making comments about a video on MTV (which is also why the characters in the video are dressed that way), and thus is taking poetic license. Of course, no one in their right mind would write those lyrics today. But it seems that if you view a lot of art made 30 or 50 or 200 years ago through the prism of current societal norms, much of it will appear racist, homophobic and misogynist. After all, it wasn’t that long ago when people would commonly say “that’s gay” to mean they thought something was stupid.
Keith Law: I think understanding the context of the objectionable language or ideas is important. For example, in that song, Knopfler is mocking the speaker (who is trying to mock musicians like Knopfler), for his overall attitude and for assuming that a singer with one earring is gay. I hate the word, but have no objection to art that repeats the word in a manner that denigrates someone using it. Compare that to the Scarlet Pimpernel, a novel I really enjoyed as a reader, but one that uses a particularly bad anti-Semitic stereotype for a central character. It’s a blast to read, but when it came up as a possible book choice in my daughter’s curriculum this year, I asked the teacher to consider removing it.

Joe: What’s your opinion of the Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez? Is he getting any consideration for your top 100 or is it too soon? Do you think he has superstar potential?
Keith Law: Nowhere close to top 100 yet.

Mo: What happened to Shane Baz last year? Has his stock dropped dramatically?
Keith Law: No. Did something happen? I can’t even think of why you’d ask about his stock dropping.

Lance: Do you think Kyle Wright will throw significant innings for the Braves this season? It’s hard to project anything for them with the glut of high-upside SP prospects they possess.
Keith Law: As you said, it’s hard to project innings totals for their arms. I would guess, based on very little but my own outside sense, that he doesn’t throw much for them unless they suffer multiple injuries or trade at least two guys ahead of him in the queue.

Lonnie: Javier Baez repeating his 2018 season – buying or selling?
Keith Law: Buying. You didn’t say when; I am buying that he can have that season again.

Yong: What is your read on Adalberto Mondesi? Do you think he’s close to the player he was in the second half last year, or was that an abberation?
Keith Law: I think that’s an aberration, boosted by the juiced MLB ball.

waks: sorry, long q. so i’m a labor advocate (and union councilor, to boot), and i’ve long thought about the power that the MLBPA has, while recognizing that it’s done a fair amount short-sighted things. One of the things i can’t stop thinking about however, is how bizarre it is that average fans are likely to side with billionaire owners over “greedy” millionaire players (despite the fact that people come to see those guys play, not take a tour of the facility). How can the MLBPA combat this? Is it even worth combating it?
Keith Law: They’ve never taken it seriously enough, going back to when I was a kid. I do think it’s worth combating it, and that it would help if the PA would align itself with unions in general – something they’ve eschewed in the past, with players crossing picket lines for other unions.

Dana: If you’re the Yankees, are you comfortable going into Spring Training with Luke Voit and Greg Bird as 1B options?
Keith Law: No.

Rodney: Is there any chance Richard Urena becomes an everyday player? Age and scouting the stat line make it seem like a possibility, but there are plenty of red flags.
Keith Law: Very unlikely.

Fred: Is Kyle Lewis regaining top 100 status simply a matter of putting together a healthy, productive season, or has he fallen further than that?
Keith Law: Not being flippant, but let’s see a healthy, productive season, and then discuss it. We have no idea at this point what such a season would even look like for him.

Ron: HI Keith- The Cruz signing a decent deal? Get the bat if there is something left and maybe an influence on Sano etc? Money wasn’t bad and maybe has a year left in the tank? Your thoughts? Thanks!
Keith Law: Yep, very good deal. Twins are quietly building a legitimate threat to Cleveland.

Eric H.: Daniel Norris has been a mix of unhealthy and ineffective since joining the Tigers. Any realistic chance he regains his form?
Keith Law: I think it’s all about health and velocity, and those two are probably connected. With a plus FB, he’s a GUY. With a slightly below-average FB, he’s more like a middle reliever or maybe a long man.

Jim L: Why didn’t Trump ask Mexico for ONLY $5 billion to build the wall?
Keith Law: Now Mexico is going to pay for it via tariffs. Or something. Is the swamp drained yet?

Moe Mentum: Any rational explanation for Harold Baines beating Edgar Martinez to Cooperstown?
Keith Law: Do you consider corruption a rational explanation? As they say in White Christmas, it’s not good, but it’s a reason.

Rhys: HNY Keith. Do you see Daniel Murphy playing more than 100 games this season at 1B and if so, might that mean the Rockies are betting on Brendan Rodgers seizing the 2B job? What are realistic projections for each if so?
Keith Law: I don’t get that signing at all. Murphy at 1b is barely worth the roster spot, and he can’t play 2b any more. To give him that kind of guaranteed money seemed like extremely wishful thinking.

Jack SF: HNY Keith! Is the Brantley acquisition a foreshadowing of Tucker’s exit from Houston? Traded for Realmuto? Is there Yelich potential there with Tucker in Miami?
Keith Law: I like Tucker but don’t think this means Tucker is getting traded.

Sweeney: At what point do strikeouts become so much of a problem that teams begin preaching about making contact and using the whole field over hitting the ball in the air to the pull side? When teams are averaging 12 ks per game? 15? 17?
Keith Law: Some teams are already doing that, but we haven’t reached an inflection point where the contact-oriented approach is more valuable.

Henry: Hi Keith, any thoughts on Jeff Passan joining ESPN. Seems like a nice addition. Keep up the great work!
Keith Law: I’m thrilled. Jeff is great at his job and I’ve been friends with him for a long time now. He also knows his KC barbecue.

Moe Mentum: What non-academic advice would you give college freshmen, in order to maximize their experience while in school?
Keith Law: This might be more like academic advice but if I could do it over again, I’d focus on taking classes on things I loved, or was truly interested in, rather than trying to figure out what classes or major would be the most valuable. The idea that you should enjoy your social life and hate your academic life is just dumb. (Not that my alma mater had a great social life, or that I was anywhere ready to enjoy one if it did.)

Chris: Do you like eating at restaurants or cooking more?
Keith Law: Eating out. Then I don’t have to clean. It gets expensive, though.

Mark: What chance do you think Donaldson has of posting at least 5 WAR this year?
Keith Law: I’d bet the under, but the odds are not zero.

Ryan: keith, huge braves fan, but wondering why they havn’t done more, price just to high for AA?
Keith Law: It’s January 3rd. Lots of offseason left.

Nick: What do you make of reports like the White Sox won’t go over 7 years for Harper/Machado? Is that just posturing to control the price?
Keith Law: I do not believe those reports.

BeefLoaf: Can you please rank Rick Hahn 1-30 (1 being the best) out of current MLB GM’s
Keith Law: I have never ranked GMs and I’m never going to do so.

Vinny : Are the Padres actually going to make a big trade this year?
Keith Law: Why should they unless it’s a good one? They’re going to be good, maybe as soon as 2020. Do you want them to trade Turner and Ross for Wil Myers and stuff again?

Ron: Fantasy baseball question – who has the best 2019 season out of beiber, toussaint, kikuchi, or Cahill?
Keith Law: No idea – I haven’t played fantasy baseball in almost 20 years now.

Juwan: If you were the GM of the Nats, would you prioritize bringing Harper back, or focus on a Rendon extension?
Keith Law: Love Harper but I think extending Rendon and using any remaining cash this winter to upgrade 2b and the back of the rotation would be the better move to contend in 2019.

Matt: So how does the shutdown end? The Dems can’t cave because if they do, the GOP will always resort to shutting down the government until they get what they want. On the other hand, Trump is a 4 year old child with narcissistic personality disorder. He doesn’t have the mental capacity to “take a loss” even if it’s for the good the country.
Keith Law: I have wondered this myself – if the GOP would eventually rebel against Trump enough to reopen the government, for the good of the people who actually voted for them.

Sheng: Does Harper have the higher upside while Machado the higher floor? Would it make sense for a team to offer a 2 year deal worth 100m? And would either think of accepting such an offer?
Keith Law: Machado has the higher floor; I don’t know that I agree either has a clearly higher upside; and I can’t imagine either player accepting an offer that short when they’re likely to get 8+ years and could end up at 10/$300MM.

Juwan: Are you still as high on Victor Robles as you once were? Still think the McCutchen comp fits?
Keith Law: Yes, maybe yes, could be more defense and a shade less power.

Michael: Why did you make a tweet slamming clickbait rumors/sources, then like a tweet a few hours later claiming that Harper is going to sign with the Cubs, and then block people who called you out for the hypocrisy?
Keith Law: Because that’s not hypocrisy, a word that people like to use on twitter without knowing what it means (or what the Like function is). And the tweet in question, from my pal Brett over at Bleacher Nation, did not claim Harper was going to sign with the Cubs or anything close to it, so the single person I blocked was, to use the technical term, utterly full of shit, as are you.

Steve: Belt for Conforto, who says no?
Keith Law: The Mets should.

Jim: Thanks for the chats. Would Verdugo, Maeda and a bullpen arm be a fair return for Kluber?
Keith Law: No.

James : aside from Vlad Jr., who’s the one prospect you think will come up and have a strong 2019 year?
Keith Law: Robles. Eloy. Whitley. I could see Tatis Jr spending half the year in the majors and producing.

Dan: Curious on your thoughts of JP Crawford as a hitter. Think the move to SEA might help him to concentrate on hitting gap to gap, instead of the “long ball” mentality? Thank you and happy 2019!
Keith Law: I think it’s more about him than the ballpark – he has to accept the type of hitter he is, not try to hit for power, and frankly to be more aggressive in all aspects of the game: ambushing good pitches to hit when he’s ahead, running out key groundballs, getting after balls in the field. He has superstar ability but for reasons I don’t understand his visible effort level was not there last year.

Justin R: When we can expect your 2019 prospects columns to hit?
Keith Law: The week of January 28th. I guess I should start writing those.

Justin R: Just bought the Smart Baseball audiobook…did I make the right call or should I have gone dead tree?
Keith Law: I’m just happy you’re reading it in any format.

Thomas: Can we expect book #2 any time soon?
Keith Law: April 2020.

James: Hey Keith. Great HOF ballot, awesome to see Andruw get your vote. Who else would you have included if allowed unlimited votes?
Keith Law: I listed those in the column on my ballot.

Jeff: Keith – It seems the Dodgers involvement in additional trades is tied, at least in some way, to Harper’s decision. Do you agree? If so, are there any smaller moves you see a positives to help them finally get over the hump?
Keith Law: I do not agree – I don’t know for sure that they’re on him.

Rell: Do you ever gamble on baseball
Keith Law: No.

Kevin: Do you see anything with Soroka’s delivery that would suggest long term shoulder issues?
Keith Law: I don’t love it, the low slot/arm path seems to put a little stress on the shoulder, but 1) I don’t think it’s a huge red flag and 2) some guys have bad deliveries and stay healthy anyway, Chris Sale being the most obvious example.

Steeeeve: Why was Harper’s defense so bad last year?
Keith Law: Mike Petriello at MLB did a great piece where he looked at all of Harper’s key ‘plays not made.’ I got the sense this was a deliberate move by Harper to not sacrifice his body for defense as much as he had in previous years, perhaps (I’m inferring here) to ensure he stayed healthy all year for free agency. I don’t think he was actually a worse defender by skill.

Mo: Re: Baz, I was basing it on his poor results in the second half, being shipped to Tampa as a PTBNL, and him being excluded from the Rays top 10 on BA
Keith Law: Yeah, still not seeing it. He only made 12 starts, all in short-season, and his best outings came in his second half. Being traded isn’t a marker against a player. I don’t write for BA and can’t explain anything about their lists.

Larry: Who has more helium potential- Vientos or Mauricio?
Keith Law: Mauricio has the higher ceiling, Vientos might do the most this year to improve fans’ awareness/perception of him.

Anthony: You ever watch Silence of the Lambs? Thoughts if you have?
Keith Law: Nope, nor do I plan to.

TP: What is the rationale behind having a different ball in MLB and MiLB? How does that impact player evaluations?
Keith Law: There is no rationale – MLB doesn’t even want to admit there is a difference – and IMO it screws up attempts to grade power.

Andrew: Thoughts on Bobby Abreu as a HoF candidate when he appears on the ballot with Jeter?
Keith Law: He’ll be below the line for me.

Concerned Seattle Fan: Is most of Jarred Kelenic value tied into his defensive development? His hit tool seems to be intact but can he become a 25-25 type player?
Keith Law: No, and yes.

Kretin: Is Chris Rodriguez a sleeper prospect this year if healthy?
Keith Law: He was top 100 for me before he got hurt so I don’t think he could be a true ‘sleeper’ this soon.

Fred: Who do you prefer between Anthony Kay and Grant Holmes?
Keith Law: Anthony Kay.

Sean : Favorite movie last year?
Keith Law: Burning. My top ten, as of 12/31, is here.

Kyle: What does Braxton Garrett need to do in your mind to have a “good” year?
Keith Law: Just be healthy.

Matt: Is Kelenic now the Marineers best prospect? Do you think he can hit 25-30 homers in safeco?
Keith Law: It’s probably Sheffield, then Kelenic and Dunn.

JD: Does Charterstone work well as a two-player game?
Keith Law: Yes. You can also use “automa” as neutral players if you want to keep it from becoming too simple for the two of you to rack up goods/points.

don’t wear pearls: HOF induction is the game’s highest honor. If stealing numbers is stealing money, nobody stole more than Bonds and Clemens on their respective sides of the ball.
Keith Law: Well, I don’t know how you steal numbers, nor do I see how this somehow equates to stealing money. If you figure out who stole i, let me know, because for years I’ve been wondering if I just imagined it.

Amy: $400mil to Harper or spread around to Pollack, Kimbrell, Keuchel and more?
Keith Law: Depends on the team, but the latter (excluding Kimbrel, who looks like a time bomb to me) makes more sense.

Luis Rengifo: How do you view my breakout season last year? Has my prospect status risen?
Keith Law: A prospect now, maybe a utility guy, but a big rise from the time of the trade.

Zirinsky: Tulo signing: assuming the Yanks are quick to dump him if he can’t play/isn’t healthy, it’s a decent move right?
Keith Law: Eh. Lot of people seem to be assuming he’ll either be fine, or they’ll just cut him in March. One, I don’t buy that he’ll be fine after almost two years of not playing due to injury, a long history of injury issues before that, and declining defensive skill. Two, I don’t believe they’ll just cut him – more likely he pulls an Alomar and just quits mid-game in March – since he’s a respected veteran and they’ll love his clubhouse presence yata yata. And three, having him precludes bringing in another option for the same role as SS fill-in until Didi returns (or 2B fill-in with Gleyber at SS). It is a gamble, with some risk and some small reward.

Paella Pete: Seems fair to say that you were more excited about the prospect of Chaim Bloom becoming Mets GM than any of the other options… What do you think so far of the job BVW has done?
Keith Law: Bloom was the best choice, but they picked the guy who promised he could contend in 2019. So far BVW has traded the team’s top two prospects for insufficient return, overpaid for a reliever (with a DV history), and signed a catcher to a good deal.

Rhys: If you’re a Phils fan, should you be rooting for Middleton and Co. to spend stupid money on Machado over Harper? I get that Machado plays IF, (likely 3B with the Phils) makes consistent hard contact, but I get the feeling the long term effect is better with Harper on this team. Thoughts?
Keith Law: You should be happy with either guy – the team will be better, likely a contender, if they land either one. The fear should be that they land neither despite having the resources to sign one.

JD: Is Wander Franco the Next Huge Thing, or just the buzziest guy at the moment?
Keith Law: He’s a potential star. I wrote in August that he looks like the next teenaged big leaguer.

Johnny LaRue: Where would you place a new franchise outside of the U.S. mainland, were it up to you?
Keith Law: I don’t think such an option exists. As much as I’d love to see a team in Havana, there really isn’t a market right now in Latin America that has the population, the disposable income, enough security for players, and the proximity to the US to work.
Keith Law: San Juan would be the best bet, IMO, but the island’s economy is not in good shape.

Mark: Do you think Miguel Andujar sticks at third?
Keith Law: I think he can work his way to average in time, but I doubt the Yankees give him that much rope.

Anthony: Does Shed Long profile as a regular? What should the Reds do with Gennett, either now or after the season?
Keith Law: He doesn’t. Minus defender at 2b.

Johnny (Woburn): Hey Keith, Happy New Year! Do you see the Red Sox making any significant moves ahead of the season? Also, what kind of player do you see Dalbec becoming? Thanks!
Keith Law: No idea what moves they might be planning. Dalbec has made himself a plus defender and it’s huge raw power, but I don’t think we’ve ever seen a player strike out this often at his age and then become a regular in the majors.

Z: I got in an argument with a family member, curious to hear your thoughts. Do you view someone that is transgender as someone with a mental illness/disorder (gender dysphoria)?
Keith Law: The American Psychiatric Association’s position on this is ‘no.’ Gender dysphoria refers to the emotional distress resulting from the incongruence of one’s perceived gender and one’s biological sex, not from the difference itself. (And, this should be obvious, I also do not view having a mental illness or disorder as a failing any more than I’d view having a physical illness or disorder as one.)

Greg: Worse HoF vote- Harold Baines or Def Leppard? I feel like Leppard at least had a higher peak.
Keith Law: Yeah, plus the RnR Hall has always had a populist bent.

Matt: Is that guy that made the comments about Sosa gonna be held accountable by the Hall of Fame? (Lose his vote)
Keith Law: I doubt it.

Biff: Any recent Philly dining adventures you’d like to share?
Keith Law: I’ve been planning to do a list of my favorites this month since I’ve been here a while. Cheu in Fishtown was tremendous. Also had a great if pricey meal at Fork last weekend.

Patrick: Is it the responsibility of the Tweeter to keep in mind that some readers will be too lazy/biased/clueless to understand sarcasm, or should we just ignore those folks and carry on?
Keith Law: I have enough followers that no matter how I word something, there will be at least a few people who misinterpret it, inadvertently or deliberately.

John o: Your thoughts on the Orioles and Elias staff so far? Hyde?
Keith Law: So far, very good.

Adam: “Then I could travel just by folding a map.” Happy New Year, Keith! If the Phillies don’t land Harper or Machado, how do they salvage the offseason? Do they hold tight and wait for the trade deadline or next year when someone like Arenado is available, or are there other moves to make?
Keith Law: They could follow Amy’s suggestion above of Pollock & Keuchel.

John: I am a loyal Democrat and I don’t like Elizabeth Warren. I think she unlikable for a number of reasons—all of them unrelated to her sex. I’d also point out that most politicians are unlikable for various and legitimate reasons. You believe that any opinion contrary to yours must be linked to some bias of sex or race. Your ID politics keeps you from fully understanding people or the world around you.
Keith Law: I do not believe any such thing. I do believe that the “unlikable” tag applies to women in positions of power far more often than it does to men, and my belief is based on actual research, as opposed to yours.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Recently got into cooking as I moved into a place with my girlfriend. Got the Anova sous vide you rec, food processor, few books, etc. Any go-to meals that you family loves? Preferably something not remarkably hard.
Keith Law: The sous vide chicken thighs on serious eats are a huge hit here.

Arty23: Do you think the Miller deal was a reasonable gamble for the Cardinals or an overpay?
Keith Law: Good gamble for them.

JR: you have about 6 weeks to get in the best shape of your life before spring training starts. Kidding aside, how much are you praying Bartolo signs this winter so there is still one MLBer older than you?
Keith Law: He’s fun. I definitely want him in MLB as long as he can hack it.

waks: Follow-up to the labor union thing. I think you’re absolutely right re: PA aligning publicly with other unions to show power of organized labor. I think movie actors ought to as well – and some have, like John Goodman stumping against Right to Work laws in Missouri this past summer. If unionized athletes and entertainers would take more of a vocal role, it would go a long way towards winning a PR war.
And hey, the MLBPA should want the piano tuners to argue against the MLB luxury tax.
Keith Law: The MLBPA – I think this is true of the NFL too – has long positioned itself as a union apart from others, and it’s easy to see why since they are arguing over a different magnitude of pay than just about every other union. The principles at stake are the same, however, and they’ve relinquished the most obvious source of public support for their efforts as a result.

JD: Kristian Robinson in Dbacks system – anyone being hyped more right now from someone that was not close to top 100 last year?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he my sleeper for them last year? He’s a guy for sure. I love Chisholm, who’s almost certainly going to be on my top 100, but I know scouts who think Robinson will be better.

Erik: Is Black Panther still in the top 10 of English language films for you in 2018 (said it in your review)
Keith Law: It is 14th right now, but four films ahead of it are not in English, so yes.

RSF: Do you worry about the plastic bags used for sous vide?
Keith Law: No because there is no reason to.

James: Any concerns that Tatis Jr makes it to the majors and is limited by contact problems a la Moncada?
Keith Law: No. Different players, different swings.

Chris B.: Chargers were dropped against Reuben Foster, who was roundly demonized two months ago based on accusations. I’m not sure if you commented on Foster, but I know you typically do not wait for the justice process to play out before castigating those accused of domestic violence. Does Foster’s case (or others where the accuser is lying) give you any pause?
Keith Law: I don’t know who that is, but I know cases where the accuser is lying – and, by the way, charges being dropped don’t mean the accuser lied – are quite rare. You are guilty of base rate neglect here.

Buck: Does David Dahl still have the upside he appeared to have as a prospect? Possible All Star if he can just stay healthy?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bob: Aledyms Diaz a cheaper Marwin for Houston?
Keith Law: Cheaper but not as good.

Archie: Would raising the strike zone and going back to a “normal” ball start to get us back to where balls are being put into play, but not always ending up in the seats when they are?
Keith Law: I have some hope it would.

Cash: Who is the nicest mlb player you have ever met?
Keith Law: Tough call – I’ve liked most of the players I’ve interacted with over the years. Archie Bradley comes to mind though. He certainly was the most enthusiastic I’ve ever met.

AZ: Favorite restaurant in Scottsdale?
Keith Law: FnB.

Rich: Is bo bichette a 2b long term?
Keith Law: That is my guess.

Bob: Are you ready to place some NFL playoff parlays at Stanley’s? I’m happy to buy you a beer and show you the ropes (on how to donate your money to the state of DE).
Keith Law: Are they taking bets there now too? good lord.
Keith Law: I don’t gamble, BTW, and I get the sense you don’t either.

Vinny : How do you feel about David Robertson to the Phillies?
Keith Law: Sure.

Adam: Could Acuna be the 2nd best player in MLB this year?
Keith Law: I’ll say that’s unlikely.

Grant: Do you think Joe Ross can be healthy enough to start?
Keith Law: I think he can be very good if healthy, but I know little more about players’ health than the public does (and if I know anything more I usually can’t share it).

Alex: Why do you think the Yankees are spending only 29% of their overall revenue on their roster, the lowest in baseball? Hal clearly wants to drive in more profit, right?
Keith Law: They’re treating the luxury tax threshold like a hard cap, which does what the league wants it to do but kills the union. I’m not disappointed, because I don’t want to see the Yankees simply field a $300 million team, but the idea of team owners pocketing all that cash doesn’t sit well with me either since the players are the product.

Chris: Can Evan White be the starting 1b for the mariners in 2019?
Keith Law: In 2020, yes.

Ryan: I believe you said you started reading Harry Potter to you hold at age 7. I’d like to do he same, do you feel that was a good age for that?
Keith Law: To my daughter? Yes, and yes, it was.

Amy: Random US city that surprised you as a fun travel destination?
Keith Law: Omaha was great for food and I found a cool board game cafe. Louisville is probably my favorite mid-sized city for food + drink + stuff to do.

Jack: Is it possible that the Mets wanted to move on from Kelenic due to non-baseball issues that you either wouldn’t know about or aren’t willing to share?
Keith Law: No. That’s kind of a bullshit question.

JP: Is legalized gambling good, bad, or neutral for MLB?
Keith Law: Gambling is bad for society in general, but it’s going to happen regardless, so it’s better to have it legal and somewhat regulated (and taxed!) than the alternative.

Amy: Have you ever done Cabo food recs?
Keith Law: I’ve never been to Mexico.

waks: hey john who’s a loyal democrat, lemme guess, you’re a middle-aged white guy
Keith Law: Anyone catch that GOP strategist who tweeted about her 87-year-old dad who wouldn’t vote for Elizabeth Warren in 2020? That’s some real valuable advice for Democrats: definitely tailor your candidate to the portion of the electorate with serious misogyny issues and a 50/50 shot of dying before the election.

Rob: Bought sous vide off your rec and I love it. Now looking into espresso, and I read some of your old posts. Any entry rec that won’t put me over $300?
Keith Law: Gaggia has some low-end models in the $220 range that are okay, not quite real espresso but closer than anything else in the price range.

KC: Do you see Gohara having a rebound year?
Keith Law: If healthy, he has real starter stuff and/or huge bullpen upside.

Jeff: Have you gotten past level 12 playing The Mind?
Keith Law: Nope. BTW, his Kennerspiel-winning game The Quacks of Quedlinburg is now out in the US, and it’s really fun, nowhere near as complicated as the title or the award would imply. It’s a simple push-your-luck game where you draw chips from your bag, but as the game progresses you get to add better chips to improve your odds.

Alec : Would you vote for Nikki Haley in a general election?
Keith Law: No, because of her policy positions and associations with Trump.

Tobias: Did Jack Flaherty just have his best season? The guy was a blast to watch, but it felt like the numbers were a little ahead of the stuff. Is he more of a #3 than a #1?
Keith Law: I think he can pitch like that for a while due to his plus-plus command.

JP: Is Durbin Feltman a potential high-leverage reliever in 2019?
Keith Law: Yes.

DC Deac: Read your HOF article and agree completely. I am a fan of WAR and appreciate it but as a writer do you ever consider not leaning on WAR as much because of your audience? I certainly don’t think it should be an end all be all (and I know you don’t) but do you ever worry readers will take that away from an article like that?
Keith Law: It’s a good starting point but you seem to understand my position on it perfectly. What I have found is that if I mention WAR there will be readers who focus on nothing else.

Kool Karl: Have you seen Holmes and Watson or intend to see it? I saw it over the holidays and thought it was a great film with some clever political overtones. I would love to get your opinion.
Keith Law: God no.

Bench : Griffin Canning? ace? Or potential Andrew Miller-ish type guy
Keith Law: If healthy, #2 starter. Strange that everyone was ready to flunk him on draft day but he’s been totally healthy in pro ball for 19 months.

mike sixel: Will Rooker cut his strikeouts enough to be a good MLB player someday? What position do you think he might play, if so? thanks.
Keith Law: 1B most likely, and yes. I think average regular.

Ben: Would you have voted for Edmonds if he were still on the ballot?
Keith Law: Yes.

Rick Sanchez: Do you think Hiura will be a consistent 20+ homer guy in the majors? There has been a pattern of blue chip prospects with elite hitting tools hitting for increased power once they reach the majors (likely attributed to the ball); e.g., Gleyber Torres, Lindor, Betts, etc.
Keith Law: With the current ball, sure. With a regular ball, I would say no.

Dan: Does Jeter Downs strike you as the kind of hitter that LA can convert into the next version of Turner/Muncy/C. Taylor? Possible 2B option for 2020? Thanks!
Keith Law: I have heard nothing but praise for the hit tool and the makeup. He’s definitely a 2b in the long run, not sure if he has that weird power upside you’re talking about, even with the LAD launch angle obsession.

Mike : My biggest worry about Elizabeth Warren as a Democrat isn’t even Elizabeth Warren, it’s that she’ll give Trump an easy target with which to play to his low info voting base and take advantage of the way the electoral college is stacked against high info areas in the first place.
Keith Law: That would be my worry as well, but at the same time, I’d rather see all of the interested, qualified candidates enter the race, and maybe then sort them out.

Andrew: Higher % between Rivera or Jeter for the HoF?
Keith Law: I think both get 99%, with a few omissions.

Chris P: Have you seen A Private War? I thought it was excellent and Pike really stood out in her role…but I feel like nobody knows about it.
Keith Law: Yes, loved it, she deserves a nomination. It is in my top 20. Review here.

Brian: Gavin Lux and Nolan Jones, likely top 100 guys?
Keith Law: Yes, definitely.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all for the questions and for reading. I’ll try to keep these going all month, although it’s possible I’ll have to skip one while working on the prospect rankings. More details on the new book coming soon. Take care.

Sorry to Bother You.

Sorry to Bother You (now streaming on Hulu), Boots Riley’s debut as director and writer, is a total mess of a film. It’s not a mess in the sense of, say, The Room, which is legendary for its badness, but in the sense that Riley tried to do way too much in a single 110-minute picture, packing in enough thematic material for three movies, attempting to shock the audience at least one time too often, and, when the film starts to go off the rails in the final third, steering hard into the skid when he needed to correct his course. The result is a film with high-concept ambitions that can’t achieve any of them.

Lakeith Stanfield (Get Out) stars as Cassius “Cash” Green, an unemployed Oakland resident who lives in his uncle’s garage and lands a very low-end job with a telemarketing firm, RegalView, at the very beginning of the film. After a bunch of prologue that doesn’t entirely matter, he learns from an older colleague (Danny Glover) that he’ll sell more stuff if he uses his “white voice,” which Cash eventually finds almost by accident (voiced by David Cross). He becomes a star, is promoted to a “power caller,” and goes upstairs to the VIP level at the telemarketing firm, where he finds himself selling some ethically dubious products services. Meanwhile, his girlfriend Detroit (Tessa Thompson, whose earrings are the film’s best running gag) is a progressive artist and part-time agitator who works with a leftist-anarchist group The Left Eye to protest a new company, WorryFree, that promises workers employment, housing, and food for life if they agree to work for the company for life without any salary. And Cash’s colleague Squeeze (Steven Yeun, who had a pretty good 2018 for himself) is actually a union organizer who leads work actions at RegalView. There’s more, but you’re probably getting the idea by now.

Riley is trying to take out a bunch of rabbits with a machine gun here, with entirely predictable results. Unfettered capitalism might be his main target, but he’s also hitting materialism, conscious and subconscious racism, cultural appropriation, worker exploitation, police brutality, police militarization, the dumbing down of American culture, genetic engineering, and a lot more. No film could adequately address that many disparate issues in two hours without turning into a scattershot mess; Terry Gilliam’s Brazil tried to hit fewer than half as many concepts, and was still incomprehensible to large portions of the audience.

One of the keys to effective satire is focus – the satirist picks one target, maybe two at most, and then drills deeply enough to take something essential to that target and use that facet against it. Riley goes the other way here, skimming off the top, and thus relying on superficial depictions of his targets to lampoon them by simply making them more ridiculous. The “white voice” gimmick is the best deployment of this technique, and to Riley’s credit, he doesn’t overuse it – only four characters get white voices at all, and only two get them for more than one scene, while it becomes unremarkable for Cash and his boss upstairs, Mr. _____, after a few conversations. That sort of restraint is lacking elsewhere in the film; the most popular show in the alternate universe of Sorry to Bother You, a game show called “I Got the Shit Kicked Out of Me!,” appears repeatedly without ever saying anything that wasn’t apparent the first time Cash and Squeeze watch it on TV at a bar after work.

The film also has one of the worst endings of any movie I’ve seen from 2018; The Wife‘s was worse, since it was the most predictable, and First Reformed‘s was more of a copout, whereas Riley just decides to go full batshit with his conclusion here, introducing a new plot element in the final third of the movie and making it essential to the resolution. (He also loses five points for casting Armie Hammer, who might know his claret from his Beaujolais but is not and will probably never be a good actor, as the CEO of WorryFree.) Riley doesn’t just go over the top in his conclusion – he pole-vaults over the top and clears it by a country mile. The problem with that approach is eventually you have to hit the ground.

I’d rather have a film with too many ideas than a film with none, and Riley has a lot to say here with enough cleverness that I’m still interested in whatever he’s doing next, even though Sorry to Bother You just doesn’t work. The bravura that Riley brings here does not serve him or the film well, and the best of the ideas – runaway capitalism and the economic inequalities it creates – suffers as a result. If Riley gets an editor, or even a voice over his shoulder encouraging him to pull back on the throttle, his vision could still lead to something brilliant down the road. This just wasn’t it.