Stick to baseball, 10/18/19.

For ESPN+ subscribers, I had a long piece covering all the players I saw in the Arizona Fall League plus some other notes from instructs and games I saw in September. I held a Klawchat on Thursday and Periscope on Friday.

Over at Ars Technica, I ranked all 18 Ticket to Ride maps available on tabletop. I also reviewed the new strategy game Tapestry, from the designer of Scythe and Charterstone, over at Paste.

My second book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, will be out from HarperCollins on April 21st, 2020. You can pre-order it now.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 10/17/19.

For ESPN+ subscribers, I had a long piece covering all the players I saw in the Arizona Fall League plus some other notes from instructs and games I saw in September.

Over at Ars Technica, I ranked all 18 Ticket to Ride maps available on tabletop. I also reviewed the new strategy game Tapestry, from the designer of Scythe and Charterstone, over at Paste.

Keith Law: Say goodbye to conventional ways. It’s Klawchat.

Trevor: Cole to the Angels sounds like a broken record. Last I checked there’s another team in LA, that wins, with more payroll flexibility
Keith Law: That doesn’t change the fact that Cole is an ideal fit for the Angels. Perhaps the Angels are not an ideal fit for him, or would choose not to outbid other suitors, but he is exactly what they need (actually, they need two of him).

Mike: Hi Keith, what’s your take on the Sox trading Mookie?
Keith Law: They should explore the market for him.

addoeh: Other than the upcoming Italy and Japan maps, what other countries/locations would like to see released for Ticket To Ride? Canada, Australia/New Zealand, Russia, South America?
Keith Law: It’s funny, I’m reading Paul Theroux’s The Great Railway Bazaar and have been thinking about how much train travel itself has changed, and how the Ticket to Ride games (which I love) really have nothing to do with the experience of travelers. Seems like that could be a new avenue for expansions. Anyway, South America seems like the least covered region for the maps so far – perhaps an Old Patagonian Express map is in order.

Trevor: Better California legislation: NCAA Fair Pay Act or prep schooling starting no earlier than 8-8:30am?
Keith Law: Why not both? High schools should all start later, as teenagers’ circadian rhythms run later than those of younger children or adults.

Bruce: Will Dustin May be in the Dodgers rotation next season?
Keith Law: At some point, yes.

Lyle: Could Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez both be on the opening day 2021 roster?
Keith Law: Possible but unlikely. Kelenic is further along.

Bruce: Will Yordan Alvarez continue to be a middle of the order bat next year or do you see him regressing next year?
Keith Law: I think there’s some regression coming, but he’ll still be an above-average hitter.

Mike: Has what Royce Lewis done in the AFL given you more optimism that the swing adjustments are progressing and the talent is still intact? Kiley at Fangraphs said in his chat yesterday he’s still bullish.
Keith Law: What swing adjustments? He looked exactly the same – huge leg kick, big hitch – and did not hit at all during the regular season. Nothing is wrong with him physically, but I don’t think there’s a big leaguer who hits for average with a noisy approach like Lewis’s.

The Bilmo: Why not play the better defender, Dom Smith, at first, and see if Alonso can play left?
Keith Law: Alonso can’t play left.

Brian: Could you provide an assessment of the Toronto front office? Has Shapiro/Atkins really done anything above average in the past 4 years? Bo/Pearson appear to be great draft hits…Lots of what appear to be bad decisions. Thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: The ‘model’ didn’t want Bichette; the scouts had to fight to get him. The model wanted JB Woodman, whom the Jays took a few picks later and who is now completely out of baseball. Pearson was a great pick, for sure, and the early (brief) returns on Groshans are also strong. But overall I don’t think this front office has built up their farm system nearly as well as other teams have in the same time frame, and they haven’t maximized returns well enough in trades.

Greg P: Keith – what’s your opinion on the baseball being used for the playoffs?
Keith Law: The evidence says the baseball is different from the one used in the regular season. Ignore the vaporing coming from the Commissioner’s Office and go with the data.

Matt: Tim Kurkjian mentioned that he liked the Maddon hire because the Angels “went too far” into the analytics, and that Maddon can bring them back the other way. Do you agree with that assessment? Is that something that’s really even possible?
Keith Law: I did not hear Tim say that, and it doesn’t really sound like him, but I’ll respond to the general argument and say it’s balderdash. Scioscia was hostile to analytics; Ausmus simply didn’t implement them well at all. Maddon is more open to integrating analytics than either of those two guys, and that’s good. It won’t matter without more pitching, though.

Ken: With the Harold Baines induction in the HOF and Nick Markakis at 2355 hits at age 35, is there better than a non-zero chance that he is able to hang around long to collect his 3,000 hits. As a die hard O’s fan my wife would be ecstatic (I am a Yankee fan and once lovingly called my wife’s team a cute little franchise 🙂 ) but good god Markakis in the hall? I might never hear the end of it!!!!!!!!!!
Keith Law: I think if Markakis gets to 3000 hits, he’ll be the first non-PED-assumed player to reach that mark and not get in through the BBWAA vote.

Dan: Hi Keith – thanks for your insights! Was wondering if you thought 2020 would be a realistic expectation for the White Sox to challenge for a division title with what they currently have? I know free agent additions could change this outlook. I also know they have a lot of question marks, especially on players coming back from injuries, but I’m not sure the Twins’ run this year is sustainable.
Keith Law: Not as currently constituted, but they should be very aggressive this winter. I do think the Twins’ run is sustainable, but the White Sox can match them with improvements from internal options plus two pieces added this winter.

Bob: No question. Just wanted to say I had a chance to check out the Crack Shack on a recent work trip to SD and it exceeded my expectations. Thanks for the recommendation!
Keith Law: Can’t wait to head there for the winter meetings. I’ve grown to like those meetings less and less over the years, especially with the last two years such duds for actual baseball news, but San Diego is the best city for them.

Brian: Are you bothered at all by the coexistence of wild cards and an unbalanced schedule? Teams are competing for playoff spots while playing vastly different schedules. For example, the Mets played 102 games against teams over .500, while the Brewers played 88, the Cubs 84 and the Diamondbacks 75. I’ve never seen anyone talk about this, but it seems like a pretty fundamentally unfair structural problem. (And it’s not necessarily something that will vary from year to year; the Mets always play 4 to 6 games against the powerful Yankees, for example.)
Keith Law: Playing more teams in your division – which is probably the right schedule when division titles matter so much – will always lead to an unbalanced schedule, and there’s no real fix for that.

Dan: The Cubs have 4 “top 100” prospects. Change my mind.
Keith Law: They do not. And since I make the list, I think that settles it.

Sarah: I saw your write up from the AFL. Do you buy Julio Rodriguez as a potential super star?
Keith Law: Offensively, yes.

edward: hey keith: longtime reader (advocated for you to read anything by gaddis) and i am headed to wilmington tomorrow for an opening at the delaware art museum. i have the afternoon free – any suggestions as to how best to spend my time? thank you!
Keith Law: Uh … maybe go walk around Longwood Gardens?

Jon: Is Gabe Kapler the next manager to ride the AJ Hinch “2nd time around he’s a genius” train?
Keith Law: I think he’ll do very well at his next stop. I don’t think he was in any way the problem in Philadelphia, regardless of what the fans or some of the local media tell you. Their bullpen imploded early, and their rotation crumbled late. None of that is on him.

Jones: What are your thoughts around the managing skills of Dave Martinez. Obviously managerial skills are often soft and hard to quantify but in my mind he definitely deserves credit for keeping the team together, setting the right tone and atmosphere and enabling them to get the most out of their talent and win games. I don’t think he does a good job with the bullpen, but looking back on Trevor Rosenthal, Tony Sipp and the rest of that cast of characters, who could do a good job?
Keith Law: I think he’s been harmless, but this team is doing what they’re doing because they are ridiculously talented. It’s a very deep, strong lineup, and their top three starters rival any top three in the game.

Brandon: Do you eat concessions at the games you attend? If so, what would be your ideal menu throughout the game?
Keith Law: Almost never.

Sedona: Hey Keith! Do you project any player from the 2018 J2 class to become All-Stars?
Keith Law: I think Cartaya is on that path right now. Others have a chance but are still pretty low-probability, like Luciano or Orelvis.

Luke: Is Wingspan the best new board game of 2019? (This could also be asked “What new board game should I get the family for the holidays?”)
Keith Law: Yes, I don’t think I’m spoiling anything by saying so. It’s the only perfect score I’ve given a game since I started reviewing over at Paste.

Ron: Is this off season a good time for the Twins to trade Rosario? Would he bring any decent pitching? Your thoughts. Thanks as always for the chats!
Keith Law: A low-OBP corner outfielder who’s not a great defender and has two years remaining probably doesn’t bring back much pitching, especially if his power spike this year was more the baseball than anything new with him.

David: Any thoughts on Ron Washington vs. Jayce Tingler as the Padres’ new manager?
Keith Law: I’m more familiar with Tingler, and didn’t love what I saw from Washington the first time around in Texas, so I would lean towards the former … but recognize that Wash might be better the second time around.

BD: Besides Luis Garcia, do you have any notes on Sterling Sharp, Jacob Condra, Jakson Reetz, or Cole Freeman?
Keith Law: All my AFL notes were in that column. I didn’t see Sharp pitch at all.

Moe Mentum: What were Gabe Kapler’s primary weaknesses as Phillies manager, and who should they hire as a replacement to address these weaknesses?
Keith Law: His handling of the media was probably his downfall, which is dumb but that’s the world in which we live. They should hire the best available replacement, not someone who is the anti-Kapler.

Beni-getbettah?: The atmospheric pressure isn’t the only thing dropping in Boston, as the next bomb might be Mookie’s departure. The silver lining, if that forecast is true, may be a solid pair of young players remaining in Bogaerts and Devers. Outside of that duo, there appears to be a drought of controlled and productive young talent. I wonder what your barometer reads on Benintendi’s season? It wasn’t a disaster, but the lack of pop in a season of juiced balls raises concerns that this may be more than a blip on the radar.
Keith Law: I’m truly surprised his power has never come on, but at this point you’re probably asking for a swing overhaul to try to find it.

Chris: Thoughts on Dave Roberts’ handling of the bullpen in Game 5 of the NLDS?
Keith Law: I thought using Kershaw for Eaton was fine, leaving him in past an inning break to face one of the best RHB in the game was questionable, and not going to Kolarek for Soto was even more questionable. Roberts managed as if Kershaw were still the 2016 model, but we have a full season of pitch data that says he’s not. Using Joe Kelly in the 10th was a white flag.

Chris: Any buy-low free agents you like this offseason?
Keith Law: I’ll do that ranking right after the WS ends.

Michael: Is there a tangible reason why Cole is so much better now than two years ago?
Keith Law: Yes, with the trade to Houston he changed his approach and went with more four-seamers up.

Adam: If you’re into high-ceiling but risky prospects, are Brailyn Marquez and Brennan Davis — and not Nico Hoerner — the best Cubs’ prospects?
Keith Law: Hoerner does seem lower upside, and he didn’t perform well after an aggressive assignment to AA this year. If you think Marquez is a likely starter, he’s their best guy. If not, it’s probably Davis.

Jesse B : Can Christian Javier be a successful back end starter if he tightens up the command or is he a reliever?
Keith Law: More likely reliever for me.

JR: While I love seeing top talent perform in the postseason, I’m also a sucker for a great story. Seeing a guy like Anibal Sanchez throwing quality postseason innings or Zimmerman having some huge postseason moments and his Nats finally having postseason success after all his years with the team – fyeahbaseball
Keith Law: Agreed – the Nats are a series of great stories, from a fan base that hadn’t seen their team win a playoff series to a city that hasn’t hosted a WS game in 86 years to all the players on that roster who’d never seen an NLCS let alone a World Series.

Michael: What should the penalty be for the Angels if it is proven that team employees knew of Skaggs drug abuse and if a team employee is found to have been procuring the drugs for him?
Keith Law: That’s a legal question, no? Seems like one for the lawyers.

BD: With a salary cap (excuse me luxory tax), shouldnt MLBPA push for a salary floor as well?
Keith Law: Yes, probably. I don’t think it solves much at the macro level but it would funnel more money to players.

Jerry: I’m an Astros fan. I’m in awe of what Cole is doing. That being said, a SP only plays in 20% of the games. Is it really worth it to blow up the salary structure (whether you agree with it or not) to pay Cole what he is going to demand and potentially lose future FAs like Correa, Springer, Brantley whose every day production would be, presumably, harder to replace?
Keith Law: A SP only plays in 20% of their team’s games, but has undue influence on those 30-odd games, so one great SP is as valuable as a great position player. I’d be more concerned with the question of how durable any great starter is versus any great position player.

Pat: Billy Squier? Nice!
Keith Law: I do it for fun.

Jason : Everyone in Philly is blasting the Phillies right now about how bad their farm system is and they “only” have 3 top 100 prospects. What is you opinion of the Phillies system?
Keith Law: They’ve flubbed a lot of first-round picks, especially top-ten picks, and it’s hurting them. I also think several very good prospects – their Luis Garcia and Daniel Brito among them – have failed to develop so far, and that’s got to lead Klentak et al to examine their development processes.

Matt: Is Juan Soto now the most valuable (hypothetical) trade asset in baseball?
Keith Law: Is he more valuable than Acuna, who is signed to a team-friendly deal? I don’t think so.

Jack: Have you heard about any issues with Kelenic’s makeup? I have heard from someone that has played with him at multiple levels that at least part of the reason why New York moved on from him was that he has character issues.
Keith Law: That is some serious ass-covering bullshit right there.

Larry Legend: With every pitcher seemingly throwing 95+ what separator are teams deeming most important? Secondaries, command, arm action or effort level?
Keith Law: All of those are factors. The first two are variables around effectiveness; the latter two speak more to potential durability or role.

Bruce: Are you still high on Dom Smith? Will the Mets deal him this winter to a team where he can play 1B?
Keith Law: Yes, and I think so.

Jeff: Any truth to the notion that the long layoff the Nats have right now will have them out of rhythm?
Keith Law: Nope.

Jack: How have teams not pushed back against a 5 game Division Series? Baseball is too random over a 5 game stretch and really good teams get eliminated at this level of the playoffs.
Keith Law: Players are not asking for more games. Also, plenty of randomness in 7-game series too.

James: What were your impressions of the Robot Umpire in the AFL? Did you see Jacob Heyward get tossed after that questionable call?
Keith Law: I was gone before that, but I thought it worked fine, and saw just one pitch called by the automated strike zone that I thought looked wrong (which isn’t saying it was wrong, just that I thought it was).

JL: Pardon my ignorance, but can you explain generally how age impacts a player’s performance, particularly at the plate? Reduced bat speed? Quicker fatigue? Lower ability to recover from fatigue? I’m curious why players start to decline at the plate due to age. Thanks!
Keith Law: I think reduced bat speed is the #1 issue.

Joe: I’m a suffering Reds fan. I see no path to contending for them anytime soon, but I’m sick of losing and feel like their best play is to see what they can get for Castillo, Gray, and even Suarez. They’ll never unload Votto though, so a total Houston-style fire sale is impossible. Never mind, I’m just gonna go bang my head against the wall for a bit.
Keith Law: They shouldn’t have traded three of their top six prospects (Trammell, Downs, Josiah Gray) for short-term help, but they did, and I’m not really sure how they move forward from this netherworld in which they’ve placed themselves.

Justi: Do you see Dylan Carlson having a chance to be on the Opening Day roster next season, especially if Ozuna walks?
Keith Law: Not likely.

Anthony: Jazz Chisholm: Did he right the ship in the second half?
Keith Law: Sure sounds like it.

Jerry: Barring injury, Whitley is the number ? starter in the opening day rotation, working out of the BP, or refining his stuff/delivery at AAA?
Keith Law: In AAA. Just didn’t pitch all that much this year, didn’t look right until the AFL.

Christopher: Is Jordan Humphreys on the Mets any good? As in what is you projection? Pounding the strike zone is nice. Future starter? Releiver? Thanks
Keith Law: Yes, he’s good, wrote him up in the AFL post.

Robert: Did you have a chance to see Micker Adolfo in Arizona? Do you think he can still unlock his massive tools if he stays healthy?
Keith Law: Yep, can still hit, with power, going to swing and miss but will walk some and hit enough HR to profile as a regular.

Bill: What do you think about the Astros starting Greinke and Verlander over the next two days? It almost forces Houston to win both games, otherwise you’re looking at Cole on three days’ rest and the rookie or a bullpen brigade in a winner-take-all game 7.
Keith Law: Maybe I’m misunderstanding, but why wouldn’t Cole pitch on full rest in game 7?

Kevin: who would you want for the next 10 years? Devers or Torres?
Keith Law: Love both. Probably Torres for position/defense.

Colin: The Padres are screwed with Myers & Hosmer, is the best course of action to run a platoon with them and see what you can salvage? i get the feeling Hosmer would ruin the clubhouse if he were to be platooned.
Keith Law: I think Myers is a release candidate at this point. I doubt it happens, but he’s not even worth the roster spot.

Tom: Trying to lose 15 pounds by year end. Do you recommend any specific low-calorie meals/snacks that’ll tide a normal sized person over for several hours?
Keith Law: Not a nutritionist, but I know from my own perspective, as someone who doesn’t need to lose weight but doesn’t want to gain and also has some minor blood-sugar issues, I do much better when I eat more fiber from whole grains, fruits, vegetables, and nuts/seeds. I also eat yogurt with homemade granola almost every day for lunch.

jk: Keith, who is best positioned to trade for Lindor this offseason and what kind of package would you expect Cleveland to obtain?
Keith Law: Supposedly they’re not going to shop him. I don’t buy that, but that’s the rumor.

Jerry: The Astros don’t seem to be missing any of the bushel full of prospects they gave up for either Verlander or Cole. Why do I get the feeling the Greinke trade may come back to bite them at some point?
Keith Law: They gave up the least for Cole and I think the most for Greinke, but in no deal did they give up more than they should have, IMO.

Ben: Any rooting interest in the World Series? I like when cities that haven’t won in a while get to celebrate.
Keith Law: Same. I don’t care that much either way, but new WS winners are definitely fun.

JR: On twitter (I know, I know) seeing lots of “how does Bryce Harper feel right now?” Honestly, I bet he feels great having $330MM guaranteed and is probably happy and rooting for his former teammates.
Keith Law: Yep. And the Phillies love him, so what’s the problem?

pakkap: pollack, gonsolin, and keibert for mookie make sense? rids LA of an extraneous contract, deltas what they’re going to have to pay mookie to extend him, and gives boston a bottom staff SP/potential closer and a starting catcher. figure betts + cole and LA is set for the offseason.
Keith Law: it makes sense for the Dodgers. It’s a terrible deal for the Sox.

Drew: In his latest column, Boz posits that the Nats are so good because they were willing to buck sabermetric orthodoxy and found market inefficiencies by fielding older players like Sanchez, Cabrera, Zimmerman, Kendrick, and Dozier and focusing on hitting to all parts of the field instead of being so homer reliant. Do you think he’s on to something?
Keith Law: No, since those players were really just a small part of their success, if they were part of it at all. And Kendrick’s season was more of a stone fluke than anything else – he’s 36 and just posted the lowest K% and best average of his career.

Tyler: Does Daulton Varsho have a chance to stick at Catcher?
Keith Law: Probably not.

Dr. Bob: Did you see that Nancy Pelosi took the picture that Trump tweeted of her standing and pointing at him (which he thought would embarrass her) and make it her Twitter cover photo? Serious trolling there.
Keith Law: Yep. Looks like she’s lecturing him in the photo.

Sedona: is KeByran Hayes the future 3B for PIT? Will he develop enough power to start?
Keith Law: Yes, yes.

Bruce: Are you buying Tyler Glasnow long term?
Keith Law: Yes, perhaps not “best pitcher per IP in the majors” good, but good.

Stu: Is there any reason to believe that Buck Showalter can be successful?
Keith Law: With the right personnel, sure. I don’t think Philly is it, though.

Bob: Padres go out and sign Strasburg, and deal for Bryant or Starling Marte, do they make a wild card run?
Keith Law: If they did those things, yes.

Henry: Would Farhan Zaidi not taken the S.F. job if he didn’t have full control? Still surprised he didn’t sell before trade deadline.
Keith Law: Maybe he didn’t like the offers he got?

Ryan: Dillon Tate still a prospect of any kind?
Keith Law: Not really.

Jack: After a disastrous playoffs and nearly 2 decade series winless streak, this offseason is a very important one for AA and the Braves. What should their top priorities be this winter and do you see any of their current prospects playing a large role on the 2020 team? Thanks!
Keith Law: Why is this offseason so important? Because they lost a five-game series they were a few outs away from winning at one point? I don’t agree at all. I think Pache plays quite a bit in the majors in 2020 and at least one of their remaining top arms – Wright more likely than Anderson – does the same.

Eor: Are there any Blue Jays pitching prospects that excite you other than Manaok and Pearson?
Keith Law: Anthony Kay. Patrick Murphy, if healthy.

Michael: Nutritionists generally say that sugar is poison for our bodies, especially in excess. I have a sweet tooth like you. Have you cut back on your sugar consumption (guessing with the granola it’s a no) or do you have any replacements you like?
Keith Law: I don’t think any nutritionists say anything like that. My granola has some sugar but less than just about any commercial brand.

Chris: What are some things that you have recently cooked/baked for the first time that you would do again/never do again? Anything come to mind that you have been meaning to try but just haven’t gotten around to it yet?
Keith Law: Made a genoise layer cake for my girlfriend’s birthday, first time I’d tried that in at least 15 years, and I’m amped to do another one but with a different recipe to try to get a little more body to the cake.
Keith Law: I blame the Great British Baking Show, by the way.

Pat: Fan wanting to watch some actual MLB players here: Is it wrong to want the O’s to sign some competent MLB pitchers to make the 2020 season more watchable? They don’t need to have a $60M payroll, rebuild or not. They still want fans to pay to watch a big league product.
Keith Law: Not wrong at all – and I think having some competent innings guys can help you develop the young pitchers who matter because you’re not overtaxing the rest of the staff.

Trey Harris: Did you see me play at all in the AFL and do you believe that I can hit enough to be serviceable in the majors eventually (even as a bench bat)
Keith Law: There’s a chance, but offspeed recognition remains an open question.

Tracy: Keith, I am looking into reading some science fiction classics, particularly Dune and some of Asimovs earlier works such as Foundation. Have you read any of these? Recommendations?
Keith Law: The first Dune book is great; don’t bother with sequels. Loved the Foundation series, particularly the original trilogy. Other classics I recommend: Stranger in a Strange Land, The Dispossessed, the Left Hand of Darkness, Hyperion, Flow My Tears the Policeman Said or Time Out of Joint.

addoeh: Isn’t every Thomas Boswell article about how someone is going against sabermetric orthodoxy? It’s like he’s constantly mad at math.
Keith Law: Yep, it’s been a crusade of sorts.
Keith Law: It’s a shame as Boswell was once among the most progressive sportswriters in the country.

Sage: Is it still true a bad manager can lose a team many games but a good manager can only win a few games over a season?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d say so.

Steve: Coming in to the 2016 draft was it perceived as weak? Where was Moniak on your rankings and who did you have at the top?
Keith Law: Very weak and it’s been weaker in hindsight. I had Moniak somewhere in the 5-8 range and Corey Ray at the top. Senzel and Puk have been the two best players from the class. The guy I was WAY too high on was Blake Rutherford, whose power with metal bats has been totally absent in pro ball.

Courtney: Jeter Downs potential star? How do dodgers sort out Lux Downs and Seager?
Keith Law: At least a potential above-average regular. I think you let it sort itself out, see how Seager looks his second year back from surgery, and if he has to move you put Lux at short.

Brent: Are you a fan of the Great British Baking Show? I really like how the show displays good competition where everyone wants everyone to do their best. Less about the contestants and more about the competition.
Keith Law: I am now, and I completely agree.

Michael: Nutritionists do say that unfortunately (link removed)
Keith Law: Come on – you have to be more discerning with your sources than that. Some random television station from a developing country isn’t a reliable source on a subject like this.

Bill: Did you ever read A Confederacy of Dunces? I found to be a wildly entertaining book, and am stunned it took a decade after his death to get published.
Keith Law: Yep, a top 20 all-time novel for me.

Sedona: Do you still see Brenden McKay having #2 upside potential? Or will his low velocity FB push him down a nothch?
Keith Law: Yes, and he doesn’t have a low velocity FB.

Todd: Other than Garcia, Yankees have any upside starter prospects?
Keith Law: Schmidt maybe. Yoendrys Gomez and Roansy Contreras could be too.

Matt: Since the Mets (stupidly) went all in for 2019 with the Cano/Diaz deal and later the Stroman deal, shouldn’t they just double down on 2020 and make a strong offer for Betts? Sure, it will deplete their system even further but they’re pretty effed beyond the short term anyway and maybe they raise a flag before the dark days come back.
Keith Law: Sure. I do think at this point the best option is to just empty the cupboard, as much as I hate that they got to this point in the first place.

Walton: What’s your opinion of Josh Lowe as a prospect? Do you think that he’s made key adjustments recently that have improved his approach or is his recent success too SSS to take into consideration?
Keith Law: Read the AFL post to which I linked at the top of this page. I think he’s the first guy I discussed.

Benji: Klaw, what’s the name of the coffee press or thingy you use again? I’m trying to wean off kurigs
Keith Law: A Hario V25 pour-over cone. Uses paper filters.

Matt: The concept of the Phillies flubbing on their first round picks has come up a bunch in chats this year, and while I won’t deny that none of them look like the type of star you hope to get from a top 10 pick, all of the players (with the exception of Randolph) were taken at least close to where you had them ranked. Is this just a development issue? Or do you consider being unable to develop players, even when drafting properly, part of screwing up the draft?
Keith Law: Moniak wasn’t taken close to where I ranked him either. I do think Bohm is good and will justify being taken 3rd overall. But they have definitely failed to develop some key guys from the draft and international.

PD: Blake Rutherford was a very old HS prospect, right? Will this apply to Witt as well, where he was a lot older and looked much better due to his physical differences?
Keith Law: Rutherford turned 19 a month before the draft; Witt did so a week after his draft. I think it’s always a variable to consider, but not definitive. JT Realmuto was 19 a few months before the draft. I’m very curious to see how Brett Baty, who was about 19.5 at the draft, develops – and how fast the Mets move him.

Barry: I eat yogurt with fruit almost everyday for breakfast. If you’re having yogurt for lunch what do you eat for breakfast? Thanks!
Keith Law: At home, usually a cereal that has at least 3 g of fiber per bowl.

HeHateMeTeam: Are the Cubs one of the teams most affected negatively by the juiced ball? Seems like they already had power and none of those guys took it to the next level. Also didn’t have any pop up power hitters.
Keith Law: Their power has backed up when most teams saw their power increase. Poor timing, to say the least.

Bruce: What are your thoughts on AJ Puk and Jesus Luzardo? Will both be top end starters?
Keith Law: Puk looks like a #2, Luzardo has that upside but still has yet to have a healthy season in pro ball.

RE: Sci-fi books: Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
Keith Law: Book is good, not one of my favorite PKDs.

addoeh: Super Colon Blow?
Keith Law: I’m convinced!

Nick: Is it just me or does the term “analytics” mean next to nothing now? I see it used a lot in the local media (I’m in Philly) as almost a pejorative term, and the people using it don’t seem to have any clue what they’re actually mad about.
Keith Law: I think that’s absolutely right. If you hear someone using it as a derogatory term, they don’t know what it means. The best concise explanation I could give is that it means using all available information to make better decisions on and off the field. Who in their right mind doesn’t want their favorite team to do that?
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks as always for reading and for all of your questions. I’ll be making a formal announcement of my next book in the next week or so, and will also have some fun board gaming pieces for Paste and Ars Technica later this month too. Enjoy your weekends!

Stick to baseball, 10/12/19.

I’ll have an Arizona Fall League scouting post up Monday or possibly Sunday night, covering everything I’ve seen out here in the desert. No chat this week as I was traveling.

I did review Tapestry, the newest game from the mind of designer Jamey Stegmaier (Scythe, Charterstone), for Paste this week; it’s a quick-to-learn strategy game with a ton of potential decisions and paths for players, pitched as a civ-builder but playing more abstract than that.

My second book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves,
is now available for pre-order on the Harper Collins site and through major retailers. It’s due out in April 2020.

And now, the links…

The Mushroom Hunters.

I love mushrooms – the edible kind, that is. (Never tried the other kind, sorry.) I’m not sure when I first realized they’re among my favorite foods; I do remember seeing the Good Eats episode “The Fungal Gourmet” and deciding to try the various recipes Alton Brown gave on that show, and discovering I liked them all. It was probably the first time I’d cooked mushrooms, and it inspired me to try a recipe in The Joy of Cooking for a white mushroom pizza with goat cheese, a pizza I still make often and have refined over the last 20 years. That may have been the starting point, but it just scratched the surface of what the kingdom of edible fungi has to offer.

A friend of mine from middle school asked me last month on Facebook if I’d read Langdon Cook’s The Mushroom Hunters: On the Trail of an Underground America, a non-fiction narrative work about several people who forage for the wild mushrooms that end up on restaurant plates and occasionally in markets across the country. Not only is the book an extraordinarily interesting study of a gray market industry and two of the eccentrics who live within, but Cook imparts a lot of useful information on various mushroom species – including a few fungi we call mushrooms but that belong to a different phylum, Ascomycota, than true mushrooms – that I’d eaten but never cooked, or seen but never eaten, or just flat-out had never encountered before.

Mushrooms are different from other foods that are foraged in the wild in that their removal does not diminish future supply, and when done responsibly the foraging doesn’t damage the environment. (If the foragers leave trash or are careless with surrounding plants, of course, that’s another story.) Wild mushrooms have extensive root structures below the ground, and humans typically harvest the edible shoots that appear above the surface and allow the mushroom to spread spores. Removing those tips doesn’t kill the mushroom itself, which continues to live in the ground, usually feeding off rotting wood, and will produce new shoots the following year. Different mushrooms live in different climates, with different food sources – sometimes favoring specific species of trees with which they’ve co-evolved over long periods of time – and varying ‘crops’ from year to year. Morels, among the most valuable culinary mushrooms, tend to pop up in abundance after forest fires, although they, like the famous truffles of western Europe and now the Pacific Northwest, are not technically mushrooms but are sac fungi classified in Ascomycota. (They’re also the subject of a great two-player game.)

Cook runs through the main mushrooms you’ll find in restaurants, only skipping the derided and flavorless white button mushrooms, dedicating long chapters to those morels, the meaty porcini (also called king boletes), the prized matsutakes, and the autumnal chanterelles, while giving shorter but still useful descriptions to species as diverse as candy caps, black trumpets, lobsters, yellowfoots, and more. He describes many mushrooms that chefs prize but that aren’t cultivated and would only appear if you went to the right restaurant or perhaps farmers’ market, and with just about every mushroom he describes, he gives a handful of ways he likes to prepare or consume them, or just straight-out tips on what you should or shouldn’t do. For example, just about every mushroom pairs well with cream, butter, and other dairy products, but matsutakes areone exception and are best served without those staples of French and Italian cuisines.

Cook himself is a character in the book, but the two stars are Doug, an iconoclastic forager with some interesting if not entirely consistent life philosophies; and Jeremy Faber, a mushroom buyer who runs a wholesale service to chefs on the west coast and in New York, and who also forages himself and takes Cook on several of his trips, including the morel hunt in the Yukon that fills the last long chapter in the book. Faber has extensive relationships with chefs in Seattle, including James Beard winner Matt Dillon and Faber’s former business partner Christina Choi, who was a rising star in the Seattle scene before dying far too young during surgery to address a brain aneurysm. Cook follows the mushroom supply chain to the tables of restaurants like those, and to special events like a multi-course dinner at the Oregon Truffle Festival, describing dish after dish with mushrooms used in typical and atypical fashions. If this book doesn’t make you want to cook with mushrooms, you probably just don’t like the things in the first place.

Doug is the perfect eccentric for a book like The Mushroom Hunters, with his mix of humanist views and self-serving wisdom, as well as a rather healthy disregard for property rights and the boundaries of national parks. He and Faber rail against federal and state government regulations that treat mushrooms as finite resources and restrict or simply ban foragers from gathering them, even though such activities might be good for the forest and, if done right, do no harm. Their self-interest is obvious here, and Cook acknowledges that not every forager is as responsible about cleaning up their own mess or respecting the other flora and fauna that grow in these environments. It’s also hard to feel much sympathy for Doug when he describes foraging on privately owned land without permission and finds himself threatened or unable to escape with his haul.

The Mushroom Hunters would be a great read if it offered nothing more than its education on mushrooms themselves – how they grow, where they thrive, how they’re gathered, and how to prepare and cook them – within some broader story, but Cook also wraps up the story of each species in some larger trip or escapade starring one of the two men at the heart of the book. It is a book about the foodstuffs themselves, with appearances from a handful of other wild plants the foragers often target, while also giving a window on to this shadow economy that also includes numerous immigrants from Mexico and southeast Asia, and thus serves as a bit of a microcosm of our society as a whole, with stories of racism, economic inequality, and labor exploitation sprinkled throughout the book. If you enjoy the fungus and want to know your chanterelles from your shiitakes, it’s a wonderful, educational read.

Next up: My friend Joe Posnanski’s upcoming book The Life and Afterlife of Harry Houdini.

Stick to baseball, 10/5/19.

Nothing new from me this week other than a Klawchat and a Periscope video as I try to finish off the first draft of my upcoming book The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, now available for pre-order. My next ESPN+ column will be a dispatch from the Arizona Fall League.

And now, the links – fewer than usual, for the same reasons, but these should get back to normal by the end of the month:

Klawchat 10/3/19.

Keith Law: What the hell am I trying to say? It’s Klawchat.

BigDaddeh: Should the Mets fire Mickey?
Keith Law: They already did. That’s probably the right move, but he’s also not the reason they missed the playoffs.

Kevin: Tampa Bay Ray new stadium debacle seems to hinge on what city can build them a new stadium first and the team will eventually locate there permanently? Cant see two cities spending that much coin for 40-something games.
Keith Law: I feel like there’s no viable solution in that metro area. Why would any city there waste public funds when there’s a 20 year history of fan indifference? What economic development could they even pretend will come from such an investment?

Dave: What happened to Felix Hernandez? Just too much wear and tear on the arm?
Keith Law: The flame that burns twice as bright burns half as long.

addoeh: How easy is it to make Kurkjian laugh?
Keith Law: He’s a jovial guy. He’s also as nice and kindhearted as he appears to be.

Wil: Years ago, Bill Simmons wrote an article on Grantland about changing the draft to a revolving pick in the attempt to discourage tanking in the NBA. It guaranteed every team a top 6 pick every 5 years. I think the idea had even more merit now for MLB as it might also improve the recent slow free agency periods. What is you take? (Article: https://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nbas-possible-solution-for-tank… )
Keith Law: I would favor some change to the top of the draft that discourages teams from accepting 110-loss seasons. There are numerous solutions, like a lottery for the top ten picks, or a form of restricted free agency for the top amateurs followed by a regular draft. Decoupling losing from the right to spend more on amateurs would help matters.

Bob: Do you think if the Mariners opened up 2B for Shed Long that he could grow into a solid regular at that spot or is he better fit as a utility guy?
Keith Law: He’s a 40 defender there. I don’t see it.

Phil: True or False: Joey Votto’s seven OBP titles have already punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame.
Keith Law: False. No evidence enough voters care about that.

JJ: What’s your guess for Game 3 in Tampa? My prediction, based on twenty years of experience with the franchise: 6,000 fans in attendance, 4,200 of whom are actually wearing Red Sox gear. When does MLB finally pull the plug on this market?
Keith Law: See above. I bet they get 15-20,000 fans. That’s not close to enough.

Brian: Obviously Tommy Edman is not a .304/.350/.500 player going forward, but can he be a useful starter for a playoff team? Or is he more likely a utility guy?
Keith Law: I think utility guy.

Jackie: If JD Martinez opts out of his contract, can he get more than the 3 years/$63 million the Red Sox would pay him if he stayed? His market two winters ago was non-existent, and it’s clear that he’s incapable of playing the field at this point.
Keith Law: Fair question. I keep reading it’s a fait accompli that he opts out, but his market would seem to be limited, no? And he’d be hitting a much more competitive FA market overall, plus the possibility that names like Betts or Lindor will be on the trade market.

Stephen: Now that the New York Metropolitans have moved on from Mickey Callaway, I would think the follow three will be included for new mgr: Joe Maddon, Joe Girardi or Carlos Beltran? Also should the Mets look into Mookie Betts?
Keith Law: Beltrán? He has zero qualifications. He’s never coached anywhere, let alone managed.

Sam: If you are the Giants do you give Will Smith a QO? I imagine if they do it would substantially hurt him in free agency and there is a decent chance he would accept it.
Keith Law: The counterargument is that he’s not easily tradeable at that salary, and the Giants would be better served spending that money on just about any other roster spot.

Moe Mentum: Name a musician or band from your teen years (1980s?) that you didn’t fully appreciate at the time until after they were no longer making new music. Talking Heads for me, no question.
Keith Law: The Smiths, although with Moz turning into a white nationalist I find them a bit harder to listen to these days.

Matt: What’s your take on Mitch Keller? He’s always been considered a top prospect, but really struggled this year once he reached the majors.
Keith Law: He is a top prospect, the first stint in the majors doesn’t actually tell us that much, but I very much believe he has to develop another third pitch because this is at least three years of him “working on” a changeup that isn’t getting better.

BigDaddeh: Is 9 straight defeats in elimination games SSS?
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: 9 straight defeats over how many seasons?

Sedona: Any hope for Raimel Tapia or Tyler O’Neil to be starters within a couple years? OR are they quad guys?
Keith Law: I have more hope for Tapia as he’s a more well-rounded player who can contribute on defense.

Dean Mavrides: Are you buying in on Frankie Montas’ breakout this year or is it due to PED’s & and luck?
Keith Law: I’m not really buying him as a starter.

Rich J: It’s October, so obviously your readers have one question in mind: who are the standouts so far in the AzFL?
Keith Law: No idea. I haven’t been yet.

Tim Robinson: Is this the downside to impeachment – Trump doubling down and committing more crimes even more out in the open?
Keith Law: I mean, I think that’s probably a positive, no? Hope that he does enough to move public opinion further against him?

Santos: Do you watch the statcast broadcast? It’s awesome and I no longer twitch when I listen to baseball announcers
Keith Law: I didn’t last night because I was multitasking and had the game on with the sound off.

Michael: What ramifications do you expect from the California law allowing College Athelets to be paid for use of their name, image and likeness? Will is force a showdown with the NCAA?
Keith Law: I think it’s only positive, but I don’t know how the NCAA will respond (other than assuming they’ll do something anti-player and then give themselves hefty pay raises).

bartleby: wouldn’t the Mets benefit by hiring a manager with actual managerial experience (unlike Mickey), instead of going after a newbie?
Keith Law: Yes. That’s nearly always the best strategy.

Idaho Nuke: It sure looks like it’s Maddon’s job to turn down for LAA. Do you think Girardi manages again?
Keith Law: I know Maddon’s interviewing in San Diego, too. I expect both guys to be in dugouts on Opening Day.

Kik: Do you think Anthony Kay can be a top rotation type starter?
Keith Law: I don’t, but I think he can be a quality id-rotation starter.

HH: Are we headed for an era of tanking/rebuilding/contending/repeat waves for all but the 3-4 richest teams? Seems like that would be rational for almost everyone.
Keith Law: Yes, barring some changes to the system, that seems like the strategy most teams will take, especially since the owners like saving money.

Tim Robinson: The Mets traded away their future for .8 fWAR. If they didn’t make the Kelenic trade, would they have made the playoffs?
Keith Law: That trade was stupid the day they made it, but I don’t think it cost them a playoff berth.

Dr. Bob: Are the Cubs really going to consider the never-managed-or-coached-anywhere, former player David Ross? The recent track record of those guys hasn’t been so good.
Keith Law: Seems like it but I have no inside info on that. When I talk to front office people I don’t ask about rumors that fifty other people are chasing. They get enough of that elsewhere.

Joe: Kershaw’s looping, parabolic lefty curveball–why do lefties seem to be able to throw these while righties do not? I’m not sure if this is camera angle, or small samples, or what, but I’ve been curious why this sort of pitch seems hand-dependent.
Keith Law: It’s not hand-dependent; I think that’s just an availability bias. You remember more of those from lefties.

Jake: What are your thoughts on the strength of this years draft compared to recent yrs? What do you think KC is looking at at #4?
Keith Law: No team is looking at specific players yet.

BD: What does it say for the game when a team like the Red Sox might trade Betts for money relief?
Keith Law: It says the luxury tax is doing exactly what the owners hoped it would do. There’s a baseball argument for trading Betts, but it’s secondary to this financial consideration.

Adam: Do you believe Forest Whitley can still be a consistent starter for the Astros after this year’s disappointment?
Keith Law: Yes.

Sho: Given what he’s been, has Stephen Strasburgh overperformed or underperformed as an overall #1 pick?
Keith Law: He’s performed. Neither over nor under.

John: If Yellich had played all 162 could he have beaten Bellinger for MVP in your vote or was Belli pretty far ahead at the point Yellich got hurt?
Keith Law: He had a chance had he played the whole year.

Kevin W: Do you frequent the athletic or the ringer?
Keith Law: I subscribe to the Athletic and read articles there rather often.

Rob: Seems rotten for the angels to fire ausmus after that season, doesn’t seem there was anything he could have done to change that. Do you think he is a scapegoat or maybe the FO or arte didn’t like something behind the scenes?
Keith Law: Probably a scapegoat, but did he show any growth from his time in Detroit? I don’t think he did.
Keith Law: Handsome guy, though.

Eric: I wish I knew when I went to college that Grifting was a potential job opportunity. It seems so fun to just make up things when the facts are in front of you and make boatloads of money from it.
Keith Law: Indeed. More schools should offer it as a major.

Jesse B: Does Victor Robles make enough hard contact to be a .300 hitter at some point?
Keith Law: I would bet no, but it’s not out of the question.

Kevin: When I hear that people say the game is now 3rd in popularity why should I care? It won’t go away and the amount of other fans doesn’t change my love for baseball.
Keith Law: Yeah that’s “please like my sport” nonsense. Baseball remains popular. It could do more to get fans in the seats, and to recruit/retain younger fans, but it’s not dying.

Mad Max’s Brown Eye: What do you see as a fair market contract for Rendon, and what teams besides the Nationals are likely to pursue him aggressively?
Keith Law: I’m assuming Boras will be thinking 8/$250MM as a floor, probably asking for more to start. He’ll play at 30 next year, though, so I’m not expecting the length of deals we saw for Machado/Harper last winter. BTW, Rendon was so injury-plagued in his early 20s, but his lowest PA in any of the last four seasons was 597. Give him credit for newfound durability.

John: Seems to me as if the area around Nationals Stadium is an exception to the idea that stadiums don’t fuel economic growth in the area. Any thoughts? Not trying to provoke an argument, and the general rule may still hold; I just find it interesting.
Keith Law: Did the stadium spur that, or other local initiatives to develop a dead area?

Pramit: Do you believe that with heavy bullpen usage and openers that teams may not be developing starters to have enough secondary to turnover a line up 3 times?
Keith Law: If there’s a developmental gap it’s in the minors where pitchers are often restricted to pitch counts of 80 or lower so they don’t learn to turn over lineups.

Eric: Who is your pick to win the WS?
Keith Law: Houston over Tampa, NYY over Minnesota, Houston over NYY. LAD over Washington, St. Louis over Atlanta, LAD over St. Louis. Houston over LAD.

Ben: Why don’t teams simply throw balls to minor leaguers coming to the big leagues until they prove they’re disciplined? It seems like discipline is the main thing most young hitters lack, and we see young hitters come up, start hot, then never find that level of success again when teams stop throwing right at them. There are exceptions for minor leaguers with known discipline, obviously, but it seems like there is a lot of the old school “challenge them” mindset to throw strikes and just see if they can hit it when the opposite may be more successful.
Keith Law: I disagree with the premise that most young hitters lack discipline.

Tim Robinson: Doesn’t Beltran make as much sense as BVW did?
Keith Law: You make a valid point.

JP: Does news of the SI firings today impact your impending free agency on 12/31/19?
Keith Law: Uh, that’s kind of gross. A few dozen people lost their jobs today. This isn’t and shouldn’t be about me.

Eric: Do you see the Mets as a playoff team next year? Is Pete Alonso for real?
Keith Law: He’s for real, although I doubt he hits 53 homers with the 2018 baseball. I don’t think they’re a playoff team as currently constituted, but BVW will certainly make moves this winter. Mind you I didn’t say good moves. Just moves.

Jon V: Cleveland is facing the inevitable with Lindor but have now publicly stated that they won’t shop
Keith Law: I don’t believe that. It makes no sense not to take offers on him.

Eric: I know it’s still months away, but the derek jeter hall of fame voting is going to break the internets, right?
Keith Law: I don’t think so – he’s going to sail in, probably unanimously now that that seal is broken.

Tom: Should I be encouraged by Pavin Smith’s season?
Keith Law: I’m not sure what is encouraging about it.

Brian: With winter meetings in san diego this year, will you visit any breweries or have a book signing?
Keith Law: Probably neither, sorry. I can’t leave the meetings for that length of time, and I’m not staying extra this year.

Eric: NL Cy Young winner?
Keith Law: I did that column last week.

Mad Max’s Brown Eye: What are the requirements for minor league stadia to be acceptable for, say, AA vs. AAA? Wouldn’t it make a ton of sense for the Nationals to use Richmond as a AAA base, and for some more western team to take Fresno? I understand that you’d need to put another team in the AA Eastern League, but some of the affiliations make no sense.
Keith Law: Some is historical, some is driven by market sizes, but yeah, one East team getting stuck with a AAA affiliate in the mountains of Titan is not really very sensible.

Hank: How much do you weigh performance in the AFL vs full season minor leagues (ie Royce Lewis)?
Keith Law: Zero. AFL performance is not predictive: Sample sizes are tiny and competition is highly variable.

John: A different sort of question on Mookie Betts. If we take him at his word about testing the market, then a team is trading only for his 2020 services. That’s still valuable, but it differs from the usual scenario when the trade partner thinks it has a chance at an extension. If that’s the case, then the trade partner has to be a team that’s really close to winning it all now. There really aren’t all that many teams that (a) are in contention, (b) have somewhere to put him, and (c) have major prospects to give. Is it fair to say that it might be harder to trade him than people expect?
Keith Law: That’s a very reasonable argument. I guess I’d counter by saying that teams would make room for a player of Betts’ caliber, even trading the player he might replace, to get one year of possibly 8 WAR.

Joe: Knowing where the Tigers farm system is now, and ownership’s unwillingness to spend in FA, when do you think is a realistic timeline to think the team could contend again? Close to never with this ownership philosophy?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say that but I think they’re more in the 4-5 years away category than closer.

Robert: I heard the Rangers might look to move one of their left handed hitting outfielders. Is Nomar Mazara a good buy low candidate? He’s had a lot of at bats, but is still fairly young.
Keith Law: I wonder if he gets better with a new org, just from a change of scenery/new approach. But maybe this is just what he is.

Jeff: Do you think the Wilpons/BVW combo will make it tough for the Mets to hire a highly sought-after manager? Why would a Maddon or Girardi volunteer to work in that circus?
Keith Law: Money. If they’re willing to pay they’ll get whoever they want.

BE: Avila is talking about not rushing prospects. Is there any reason not to see Mize and Manning in 2020 other than service time manipulation?
Keith Law: Mize ended the year on the shelf and I want to see him fully healthy before I think about a timetable for his debut.

Andy: Can Trammell play CF? In everything you’ve written, he only has the arm for LF, but would his glove play in CF? San Diego has a lot in the corners, but not much in center.
Keith Law: I don’t know anyone who thinks he can play CF.

Patrick: Keith, thx for not just sticking to baseball.
Have to pick options for our next book club–heavy into mystery and romance, but want to branch them out. Anything you might recommend? (I have perused your last Top 100 for tips already!)
Keith Law: For non-fiction, perhaps Amity and Prosperity, this year’s Pulitzer winner. For fiction, how about Elizabeth McCracken’s Bowlaway or Lisa Halliday’s Asymmetry?

Andy: The Braves opted to save Soroka for Game 3 due to his home/road splits (4.14 ERA & 1.303 WHIP vs 1.55 ERA & 0.963 WHIP). With a sample size that small, that’s pretty short-sighted, right? Plus, a road playoff atmosphere will be different from any he has ever pitched in.
Keith Law: I don’t think “he can only pitch on the road” is a thing, either.

Ron: Why do you suspect so many sports pundits (mostly white) are so upset about college athletes being able to…..have money? I will never understand why anyone would care about another person’s bank account.
Keith Law: I’m sure race is part of it – at the very least, you would think such white pundits would have a harder time relating to athletes of color, or putting themselves in the athletes’ shoes – but a lot of it is just defending the status quo.

Jim: Love the chats. Re something from last chat… I don’t keep up on all op-ed contributors at the major papers. What became of Bret Stephens? At WSJ he seemed to be reasonable “never-Trumper”. Something change?
Keith Law: Not sure, but now he’s doing videos for PragerU, the alt-right indoctrination video series on YouTube. The Times should absolutely fire him for that. It is incompatible with a job at a respected news outlet.

Buscon Bob: Between Avisail Garcia, Eric Sogard and Travis d’Arnaud, whom should the Rays consider 1st to attempt to sign an extension before FA?
Keith Law: None of the three for me.

Dave: Regarding the Callaway comment above about experience, does that mean major league pitching coach would be below AAA manager in terms of where you’d look to hire?
Keith Law: Yes.

LB: You’re Theo and Jed.
Keith Law: Woof, I have a hard enough time just being one person.

dave-o: Prez Pumpkinhead just requested China to go after Biden- isn’t that exactly what he’s being impeached for? WTF?
Keith Law: Forget it, he’s rolling.

JP: thoughts on the Joker movie?
Keith Law: No interest.

Dave: Is Kyle Lewis a long term solution in Seattle? Or was it just SSS at work?
Keith Law: SSS. Look at his minor league line from this year.

Ron: Betts for Verdugo, Ruiz, and Josiah Gray. Who says no
Keith Law: The Dodgers.

Jon V: Some interesting comments from Tito on Jake Bauers’ exit interview. Was his attitude a factor in TBs decision to move on from him?
Keith Law: I didn’t hear that specifically, but he did voice his displeasure with Tampa’s attempts to change his launch angle to get him more power. (That lack of power is why I never ranked him that highly; 1b only, not good there, has plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills but never projected for power.) Maybe that was a factor?

pj: Do you think pitchers with really good sliders were affected the most by the new ball? and is there any hope that with a new new ball some of these pitchers will revert back to their pre 2019 form? askin for some friends (diaz, thor)
Keith Law: I have heard this hypothesis several times from baseball people. It is plausible, at least. I’d like to see some evidence to support it.

Sage: KB + Happ for Betts ?
Keith Law: I don’t see how that helps Boston.

HH: Re more young MLB fans: Are Saturday night games really THAT much more profitable than Saturday day games? Saturday day games are the only time I’d consider taking my kid, and there are almost never games then.
Keith Law: I thought the lack of Saturday day games was a function of the Fox TV contract.

Jeff: Did the Mets deplete their farm system beyond the point of being able to make a trade offer for Betts?
Keith Law: Definitely not. Smith + Mauricio + Szapucki for a year of Betts is at least a fair proposal, even if the Red Sox might want more.

addoeh: Some of the arguments against the California college athletes bill have come pretty close to advocating for actual socialism.
Keith Law: From people who would probably tell you they’d sooner turn to satanism, too.

Todd: Think Betances gets a QO or hits free agency?
Keith Law: Guessing FA but I’m not sure.

Buscon Bob: Why is Trevor Bauer getting his own TV show?
Keith Law: Radio, right? Still, I don’t know. There are many other players more deserving of the podium.

Troy: Better next 5 year run: Flaherty or Buehler?
Keith Law: Love both. Would lean Buehler on pure stuff.

Ted: if you’re Alex A. you gotta be sliding into the DMs of yet-to-be-named-Red Sox-GM’s every day this winter right? Or would adding Mookie make the Braves too much fun for the universe to allow
Keith Law: They do seem like an ideal fit. They can give Boston young starters, and they have that spot open in RF.

Troy: Do you think Dakota Hudson has shown enough to be a mainstay in the Cardinals rotation?
Keith Law: No.

Regret: I know the Kelenic trade gets most of the “sh**iest move” press, but the Downs/Gray deal for the Reds has to be just as bad, no? Unjustifiable the second it was done–and horrific in retrospect.
Keith Law: Agreed, and then compounded by trading Trammell at his lowest value point for a fourth starter.

Jason: I asked about Xavier Edwards in Periscope yesterday, and you correctly pointed out he played more at 2B than SS. Now that Luis Urias has been freed, could he or Edwards play CF to get both of them into the lineup?
Keith Law: Edwards seems more suited to CF, although they’re at least two years apart developmentally.

Scott: Is Corbin Burnes still a starter for you long term? IIRC Woodruff followed a similar development pattern on his way up.
Keith Law: If healthy, absolutely.

Stu (UK): We chatted last week about my upcoming visit to the USA where I’ll be attending a World Series game- interesting insight into Minneapolis! Thank you! Where would I NOT want to go? Has to be Tampa, no? -Cheers, Stu
Keith Law: Tampa would be the worst of the 8 cities left, since the team itself actually plays in St. Petersburg, the stadium isn’t near anything worthwhile, and getting around that area is not easy.

Eric: When you listen to audiobooks, do you actively listen, or passively listen while doing other things? If the later, how well do you feel you retain the book vs. reading?
Keith Law: I listen while driving, cleaning, or cooking. While driving it’s passive listening, but the other tasks let me focus more on the book. Current audiobook is Josh Levin’s The Queen, which is very very good.

Fellow Little Man: We have a AAA quality park here in AA Hartford, just a hop, skip and a jump from DC. I nobody here has any say over these decisions but if I keep putting it out into the world maybe it’ll happen.
Keith Law: Incredible park. One of my favorites.

Chris: A bit of a delayed reaction here but my nieces and nephews won’t let anyone else make pancakes bc of my whipped egg whites. Glad to know the technique is Klaw-approved!
Keith Law: Huge difference. Do that and cook them in a thin layer of bacon fat for the best scratch pancakes ever.

Tom C: But you will leave the meetings to go to Juniper & Ivy right
Keith Law: I have to eat, Tom.

Tom: Re Pavin Smith: I was referring to his improved Avg and OBP, while still maintaining low strikeout rate, against AA pitching. I thought it was encouraging
Keith Law: No power. He’s a mediocre 1b without power.

Buscon Bob: Is 2020 the year that Tim Tebow decides that he should quit sports?
Keith Law: Maybe Callaway was sacked for opposing a Tebow callup.

JG: If you’re the Twins and could only keep one: do you extend Rosario or Buxton?
Keith Law: Extend Buxton, trade Rosario.

Andy: The President is using Nickleback memes.
Keith Law: Fitting.

Zach: Eh Prager is garbage brain washing, but it’s more hard conservative than alt-right
Keith Law: They’ve really veered into alt-right crapola lately.

John: Any recommendations via your daughter for YA fiction or fiction that’s adult-level reading but thematically appropriate for teens?
Keith Law: I’ll ask her what she recommends when she’s home from school. I know she read & liked my friend Kelly Swails’ This May Go on Your Permanent Record. She loved the Marissa Meyer Lunar Chronicles series too.

Richie O: Are you still upset at the Jays for firing you?
Keith Law: Well, they didn’t fire me, I quit to join ESPN … most fired people don’t start a new job the day after their last one at the old company. Facts still matter around here, Dick.

addoeh: Hey Keith, you live in Delaware. Could investigate the Bidens as well?
Keith Law: I have some very good dope about Ashley Biden’s sixth birthday party. Just waiting for the New York Times to call.

JL: Re: Soroka and the road… I don’t know if there’s truth to it, but David O’Brien and Eric O’Flaherty have mentioned on a podcast that some Braves pitchers believe the mound is too short in ATL. Could be Soroka is not as comfortable on his home mound. Just the messenger. Do you have thoughts on that as a possibility?
Keith Law: I don’t buy it. If the mound is low, and it’s bothering THEIR OWN pitchers, you don’t think the Atlanta brass would address it?

Matt: Speaking of Bill Simmons, didn’t you guys use to try to have a longest chat record? I think he won w/ like 6 hours but I could be wrong.
Keith Law: I used to do long chats but he always had the record as far as I know.

MIke: At what point does tanking become a diminishing return? I mean the Blue Jays can’t be thrilled about losing 95 games for the priveledge of drafting 6th (and its accompanying draft pool).
Keith Law: Agreed, and that fan base seems like one of the angriest at the current leadership.

Mike: Acuna/Pache/Betts OF? Yikes.
Keith Law: Right? Will they give up any doubles all year?

Robert: Did you see the Phil Rogers take where he asserted that the Cubs collapse in the last two seasons was a result of taking Russell off shortstop for Baez in the second half last year? Quality analysis—playing the better player instead of the domestic abuser leads to losses.
Keith Law: I saw it, but it wasn’t backed with evidence. That claim requires support.

Andrew: Bryan Reynolds…is he a legit MLB hitter?
Keith Law: MLB regular, yes. .400 BABIP guy, no.

JA: Any interest in returning to a front office role in the future?
Keith Law: Not really.
Keith Law: I never say never, but that fits my current life less than it ever has.

A-A-Ron: Is your name pronounced “Claw” or “Kay-law”?
Keith Law: Rhymes with “claw.” It’s been my nickname since high school.

Rob: Nice call on Jose Garcia prior to season. Can he be an above average regular at shortstop for the Reds?
Keith Law: Sure sounds like it. I should share credit with Eric Longenhagen, who was on him just as early as I was.

Sedona: BA seems to be buying in on Bryan Mata? What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: I have delivery questions. Great arm though.

John: Do you have any “never miss” podcasts that aren’t really well known? I do a ton of driving and would like to put a new one in the rotation. Thanks.
Keith Law: I listen to The Hidden Brain, Grierson & Leitch, and BBC’s The Inquiry, which are all weekly. I subscribe to some others that come and go, like Hugh Acheson Stirs the Pot, and have done some single-season ones too.

Mad Max’s Brown Eye: Why do any Democrats think the impeachment process is a bad idea, or that they should whip through it as quickly as possible? At the very worst, you’re getting all of the evidence (that you look for, at least) out into public record and forcing the GOP to defend Cheeto Benito’s actions before voters. People talk about his popularity, but Nixon was WAY more popular pre-hearings than Trump ever was, and look how public opinion turned against him.
Keith Law: This is my thought exactly. I’m neither a historian nor a political pundit, but my common sense meter goes bananas at the thought of a deliberate, thorough impeachment hearing.

Joe: Should the Phils dump Klentak/McPhail, Or Kapler? Or clean house with all of them? Should the injuries spare Kapler?
Keith Law: Keep them all. Who do you blame for the whole bullpen getting hurt?

Tom C: I was reading how attendance hit a 7 year low this year, with one theory being fans don’t like the happy fun ball results. But looking at the standings, there seems to be a lot of lousy to middling teams, and that would seem to me to drop it more because what’s the incentive to go watch teams like that?
Keith Law: Agreed – who is buying a season ticket package, even a partial one, to go see a team that isn’t trying to win and doesn’t bring up its prospects because service time.

Nick: Do you think Marcus Wilson is good enough to be an everyday starter in Boston?
Keith Law: I do not. .319 OBP in AA with a huge K% doesn’t bode well.

Bob: Forest Whitley seems to be pitching well again in the AFL. What does he need to do to give the Hou FO confidence that he can contribute in the rotation next year?
Keith Law: Just pitch well, really. I think they were ready to give him 10-15 starts this year until he struggled, and I don’t know if that was the Happy Fun Ball, or some physical issue, or something else.

Andrew: Random Question–I feel like its rare to find Left handed Catchers…is there a baseball reason for that, like its harder to throw the ball to a certain base- etc.
Keith Law: A left-handed thrower with that kind of arm strength probably ends up on the mound as a kid.

Ryan V.: I came across this longform story about the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. I, for one, am *super* proud to live in a nation where the administration cares not a whit about the murder of a U.S. resident by a foreign government… https://www.insider.com/the-murder-of-jamal-khashoggi-2019-10
Keith Law: Thanks, I’ll check this out. And yeah, we used to stand for some things.

Bill: In terms of music, do you have any guilty pleasures (songs or bands) that you wouldn’t be overly eager to disclose to others?
Keith Law: You see my monthly and annual playlists – I don’t hide anything on there. If I like a pop song, it goes on the lists. Someone will always make a derisive comment but my tastes are what they are.

James: Do you think the Fair pay to Play act could potentially influence tough sign HS draft prospects in CA? Could they use it as leverage to get more $$$ from MLB teams?
Keith Law: I hope so, but college baseball players don’t have the personal revenue potential of football/basketball players.

Mark Emmert: How dare college athletes try to make money off their name and likeness, that should only be for the schools to do!
Keith Law: And for you personally, of course.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – back to book writin’, although I’m near the finish line, at least. I appreciate all of your questions and will be back writing for ESPN+ next week after I visit the AFL. Enjoy your weekends!

Music update, September 2019.

I’m still catching up on some albums from the last month, although I did listen to the Vivian Girls’ latest (nothing new to include) and still need to finish listening to Chelsea Wolfe’s challenging Birth of Violence. As always, if you can’t see the widget below you can access the Spotify playlist here.

Temples – Holy Horses. The best track on their very good new album Hot Motion features what might be my favorite guitar riff of the year. The album features a lot of throwback psychedelic rock but manages to still sound fresh, with this, the title track, “Context,” “You’re Either On Something,” and “Step Down” the strongest songs on the record.

Oh Wonder – Hallelujah. Earworm of the month, and one of the catchiest songs this duo has ever done, whether you like it or not.

Supergrass – Next to You. These ’90s Britpop stalwarts are back after a nine-year breakup with a greatest-hits record that includes this cover of the first track on Outlandos d’Amour, the first album by the Police.

The New Pornographers – Colossus Of Rhodes. I feel like I underappreciate the New Pornographers because they’re so consistent. This new album doesn’t quite have the highs of Brill Bruisers or the critical acclaim of Twin Cinema but still has several solid singles.

TVAM – No Silver Bird. This two-minute track was originally released for Record Store Day and just appeared online last month. It’s a cover of this track by a band of which I’d never heard until TVAM covered it.

Foals – The Runner. I’m very much here for Foals’ big guitar-laden lead singles from upcoming albums. Everything Not Saved Will Be Lost Part 2, their second LP this year, drops on October 18th.

Lower Dens – Hand of God. This Baltimore-based band released its fourth album The Competition on September 6th; it’s somewhere between a meditation and a polemic on late-stage capitalism, led by the 2016 single “The Real Thing.” “Hand of God” has that new wave-y vibe for which I shall always remain a complete sucker.

Bombay Bicycle Club – Eat, Sleep, Wake (Nothing But You). They may never come close to 2011’s “Shuffle,” which will certainly appear on my top songs of this decade list (planning that for December), but this lead single from their upcoming LP Everything Else Has Gone Wrong, due out in January, is my favorite track of theirs since their big hit.

She Drew The Gun – Trouble Every Day. I assume this third single from the political post-punk Wirral group just this year presages an upcoming album

Night Dreamer – Another Life. Night Dreamer comprises the Smashing Pumpkins’ guitarist Jeff Schroeder and keyboardist/singer Mindy Song of Wam Dingis, with a clear late-90s indie-rock sound beneath lyrics that at least try to get philosophical, although I don’t know if they quite hit the intended target.

Bat For Lashes – Desert Man. Natasha Khan’s fifth album, Lost Girls, is more accessible than 2016’s The Bride, although like most of her work I’ve found it improves on multiple listens.

FKA Twigs featuring Future – holy terrain. It’s been five years since FKA Twigs’ debut album, with just two original songs in the interim, but this collaboration with Future marks the second single in advance of the October 25th release of MAGDALENE.

Corinne Bailey Rae – Jersey Girl. Another cover, this one of a Tom Waits song that was also covered previously by Bruce Springsteen. CBR’s voice is still mesmerizing and beautiful 13 years after “Put Your Records On.”

Grimes featuring i_o – Violence. Grimes’ Art Angels was my #1 album of 2015, but her last single “We Appreciate Power” felt like a huge regression; this new track, possibly from her upcoming album Miss_Anthr0pocene, starts slow with Boucher overusing that childlike vocal from “Oblivion” but rallies quickly with a hypnotic beat from i_o. The video is interesting but feels like it’s a chapter of a longer book.

Danny Brown – Best Life. Here because it’s produced by Q-Tip, although I don’t get the sense The Abstract appears on the record itself.

That Dog – If You Just Didn’t Do It. That Dog had a moment in 1997 with “Never Say Never,” not to be confused with the bigger Romeo Void hit of the same name; I don’t remember this band at all from their first iteration, but they’ve been back together for a few years now, and will release their first album in 22 years, Old LP, on Friday.

The Mysterines – Bet Your Pretty Face. I included “Gasoline” on a playlist this summer; both tracks come from the Wirral punk-rock trio’s four-song EP Take Control, released in August – and yes, that’s two bands on this list from Wirral, which was not intentional.

Just Mustard – Seven. Full-on throwback shoegaze from this Irish quintet who would could have opened for Ride in 1992 with this sound.

Alcest – Sapphire. I prefer this to Alcest’s previous single, “Protection,” as it’s closer to the shoegaze/extreme metal blend they showcased on 2016’s Kodama, without the black metal trappings of their early work.

Syberia – Empire of Oppression. These Spanish prog-metal instrumentalists are new to me, but they’re about to release their second album, Seeds of Change, on October 4th. There’s a lot packed into this six-minute track, with tonal and temporal shifts that alternate intense bursts of swirling guitars with moments of relative quiet, ramping up the pace for a big finish.

Stick to baseball, 9/28/19.

My one piece for ESPN+ subscribers this week had my six postseason player award ballots, all hypothetical as I didn’t have any vote this year. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday and another Periscope video chat on Tuesday.

At Paste, I reviewed Silver and Gold, a tremendous new flip-and-write game from the designer of Gizmos and Bärenpark, where players fill in polyomino shapes on their own cards, trying to complete as many cards as possible while racking up various bonuses. It’s due out in late October.

My second book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, is now available for pre-order on all the usual sites. The release date is April 21, 2020.

You can also get more updates from my free email newsletter; the next edition will go out some time this week, before I head to Arizona for an abbreviated trip to the Fall League.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 9/26/19.

My ESPN+ column listing my (hypothetical) postseason awards ballots went up this morning.

Keith Law: Birth. School. Klawchat. Death.

addoeh: Who would bring back the Cubs a greater return; Baez or Bryant?
Keith Law: I have to think Baez given positional scarcity/flexibility, right?

Sad Canadian: Hi Keith. I live in a country where the voters are probably going to re-elect as Prime Minister a “woke bae” who has been found to have, on at least 3 occasions, worn blackface. Any reason why I shouldn’t dig a very large hole and hide in it for, I don’t know, forever?
Keith Law: It does depend a bit on the alternative, no? I mean, I’d vote for Woke Bae if it were him vs. Trump.

Sam: Who do you think is more likely to still be employed as manager of their current team this time next week: Joe Maddon or Mickey Callaway?
Keith Law: Maddon. Not that I entirely blame Callaway for the Mets missing the playoffs, but I feel like he’ll be the scapegoat.

Brian G: Good day, Keith – CBA expires season after next I believe. Rough odds we’ll have a work stoppage? (Full disclosure: I have cc’d Rudy Giuliani and Willy Barr on this message to you, normal stuff.)
Keith Law: excellent, I can trust those two guys to keep a secret. I say 20% odds. I hope I’m being pessimistic.

Nelson: Despite the juiced ball, why has there has been only 1 50HR season in the past 2 years?
Keith Law: Well, two of the players most likely to get to 50+ missed too much of this season to injuries to do so. We’ve also got a player at 49 this year, and in 2017 we had two guys cross 50 (the same two who missed part of this year). But I think the best explanation is that juicing the ball isn’t going to help every player exactly the same way, right? It’s not some linear function where we just add X feet of distance or multiply every distance by (1+x) where x is somewhere between 0 and 0.2 or something.

Mike: With Giminez coming soon, do you think Rosario can move to CF? Unfortunately, Cano will be holding onto 2nd base for a while longer.
Keith Law: Gimenez had a .309 OBP in AA, and doesn’t project to hit for power. I don’t think he’s coming soon.

mark: My kids are big pancake fans. I find mine tend to be a bit flat. What is the secret to a big fluffy pancake?
Keith Law: Separate the eggs, then whip the egg whites (with a pinch of cream of tartar) to stiff peaks before folding them into the rest of the batter.

Carl: Tommy Edman more than a 4th OF for the next few years?
Keith Law: I think he’s an extra guy, not a regular.

John : What are your thoughts on the dynasty fantasy baseball industry and how it affected your industry? Your articles and rankings (along with others ie. BA, Pipeline) are the main tools used in group chats, trade proposals, etc. etc. Would you participate in some way within this community?
Keith Law: I don’t play fantasy, but of course I am happy to have folks read & use my content for that.

Sedona: Has Tony Gonsolin shown enough to win a rotation spot next year? What do you think his ceiling is?
Keith Law: Ceiling of mid-rotation starter. Five extra points for the hair.

Sam: The Giants will undoubtedly extend a QO to Maddison Bumgarner. Considering his declining analytics, age and the amount of innings he has thrown do you see much a market for him this offseason. Is he going to be this years Dallas Keuchel where he may have to wait until after the draft to sign because of the QO? Thanks
Keith Law: Keuchel was hurt a bit by concerns about his injury history and durability. I don’t think Bumgarner faces either, although I agree with your points about declining fundamentals and general workload.

Buscon Bob: Position players who can draw walks and hit for power are seemingly the must-have for all baseball teams, why does it seem as if Avila is allergic to this in Detroit?
Keith Law: I think the Tigers are targeting different players than the rest of the industry across the board, and I don’t exactly know why. It does seem like, in the draft at least, they tend to take guys who are more famous – and more toolsy – than guys who pass the sort of contemporary filters teams use, which includes Trackman or similar data.

Sedona: Amed Rosario has taken a huge step offensively this year at age 23. He’s improved his #’s year over year. What do you think his ceiling will be?
Keith Law: I think by 26-27 he’ll be a star. I am no longer sure where he’ll play, as he has regressed on defense since reaching the majors, and I don’t know if 1) I overrated his defensive ceiling or 2) the Mets are just not good at developing gloves.

Aaron: Joey Votto recently mentioned that he would rather retire (quit) than struggle thru the last years of his contract. The reds could never publicly support this. Buttttttttttttt, what percentage chance do you think they quietly hope he does this before his play turns into a Albert Pulojis type situation (or do you think it does with him).
Keith Law: I’m sure they hope he does so, or takes a buyout, or there’s an injury that gets them an insurance payment.

JR: I’m trying to reconcile this Mets season. On the one hand, it was very entertaining with some great performances by deGrom, Alonso, McNeil, Conforto. On the other hand, nearly everything went right with the starting rotation and the key positional players were mostly healthy and this is the best they could do (obviously the bullpen weighed them down). There is every reason to expect some regression next year – especially from the rotation and they’ve sacrificed their top prospects in the meantime. In sum, I enjoyed this season but the short term benefit does not outweigh the long term cost they paid to field this team.
Keith Law: I agree, but I think they’ll go all in for 2020 now that they’ve traded Kelenic/Dunn and acquired Stroman (trading Kay and SWR). Because they’ve gutted their system – which still has some prospects of value – they’ve increased their incentive to win in the short term. The long term looks much worse.

Brad: Keith, I think Trump relishes this latest development: (1) He KOs Biden, who he considers the main opponent, with lies and smears; and (2) He again sucks out the room’s oxygen by dominating the news with his persecution complex while Dem candidates and key issues again get bumped off the airwaves.
Keith Law: Thirteen months before the election probably mitigates your second concern. As for Biden, uh, okay, bye.

Corey: If a billionaire with a sports empire who owns one of the richest clubs in pro sports trades off one of the best 5 players in the game in his prime to save $ + get under an arbitrary threshold, i’m thinking it’s time he sell the team Is Boston really going to do something that dumb ?
Keith Law: There’s a good baseball rationale for trading Betts, but they have to get an impressive return for him, and that’s not easy – also, they don’t have a GM yet.

Dean Mavrides: Is Vidal Brujan TB’s future 2b?
Keith Law: Yes.

Craig: Dom Smith for Trent Grisham. Who says no?
Keith Law: Does Grisham fit the Mets? Not a bad deal for value but I’m not sure it addresses a need for NY.

Buscon Bob: Joe Ryan or Shane Baz, better floor and better ceiling?
Keith Law: Baz better both. Ryan’s a prospect though.

Ben: Can Mauricio Dubon be a legit starter, or is he a utility guy at best?
Keith Law: Nonzero chance he starts. Love the player, will get the most out of his tools.
Keith Law: Turns out the electric kettle only works if you plug it in!

Nathan: I noticed Arraez not in the top 3 for AL ROY? How far behind the other 3 was he, and can he be anything more than a good UT going forward? His contact rates are insane and he’s been walking
Keith Law: I only ranked 3, sorry, I didn’t rank anyone past that and I don’t think he’s ahead of any of those guys (not by WAR, certainly). Probably a good UT, chance for a regular (grade 55 ceiling, if you are inclined that way).

Joe: I’m not sure if you want to comment, but: do you have a list of things (not including money) that you’d like to have (e.g. your own podcast) if you returned to ESPN?
Keith Law: I do have a list, but I don’t know that I should share it. The people who would make such a decision know what matters to me.

Ken: with the Orioles farm system in the bottom 5 pre 2019 draft and moving to the mid teens post draft. Is there anything reason they shouldn’t have a top system system this time next year
Keith Law: They’re in the mid-teens? I think they’ve improved, but I haven’t reranked.

John: 2020 Red Sox first baseman — FA signing, or Chavis/Travis?
Keith Law: I could see them trading Betts and then signing a 1b. I’d like to see Chavis get that shot, though.

Dallas: The NBA today has come out and said that everybody has to give their exact age and height; no more fudging. I’m 5’7 and 3/4″; if the NBA doesn’t list me at 5’9″, I riot. Thanks for your support.
Keith Law: Can we do that in baseball? And add weight?

Derek: Is this enough to get republicans to stand up or will they just be concerned about it and move on?
Keith Law: My guess is they just voice concern and continue to confirm appointees. If the House impeaches Trump, however, we’ll actually force everyone to make some public stand.

Brian: Gleyber Torres has a 125 wRC+ on the year but it goes down to 103 if you remove games vs the Orioles. Which do you think is closer to his true talent level?
Keith Law: I think he’s closer to the latter, but his ceiling is the former and then some.

xxx(yyy): Good Afternoon Keith! I have an itch to make some new stuff but not sure what to make…where do you look for new culinary ideas/recipes/food?
Keith Law: Either from things I eat at restaurants that inspire me, or when I see a recipe online/in a magazine that really catches my eye. I did that last night with something I saw in Bon Appetit, chicken legs braised in coconut milk and thai green curry paste. It was good but I think needed more salt and a lot more lime juice than just “serve with lime wedges.” Good with rice to soak up the cooking liquid.

Joules: Hey Keith. If the Braves extend Donaldson should they seek to move Riley or is he more of a bench bat at this point?
Keith Law: Could try Riley in RF, or keep him as Donaldson insurance. I feel like his trade value would be slightly depressed after the rough rookie year.

Eric: My wife and I are thinking about a move from the big city (LA) to a more rural/smaller town within the next few years. We have two little kids. Any advice on a decision like this, since you have made a number of moves over the years, and settled in a smaller city?
Keith Law: I’m really close to Philly, and in the NY-Washington belt you’re never really far from a big city, so I get the best of both worlds. But there are some wonderful small cities around the country that still offer a lot of the art, culture, food, etc. I’d want. Nashville, Louisville, Minneapolis, hell even Omaha (not very diverse, otherwise wonderful) have all impressed me on my travels.

Dave.: Trout or Bregman for MVP?
Keith Law: That column went up today.

xxx(yyy): what is (or should be) the next logical step for Lauren Mayberry?

girl has 70+ grade vocal talent but has probably done all she can with CHVRCHES at this point, right?
Keith Law: Agreed, I think she’s constrained by their musical style and also seemed to mail in the lyrics on the last album.

Jason: Do you have any sense of why you were shut out on awards voting two years in a row? Is it just random or is there some metric by which they select the writers who vote for particular awards?
Keith Law: (shrug)

Kevin: Tigers have 1st pick in next year’s draft. Narrative suggests Torkelson is pick for a position player starved farm system but could Austin Martin uptick in power and be choice? Any other reasonable possibilities now?
Keith Law: Torkelson is famous, not necessarily the clear 1-1. It’s a loaded class with college bats and pitching, and I think it’s folly to just assume Torkelson is the clear top guy right now when there are plenty of other candidates.

Rob: If you’re the angels do you pay Cole $250 million this off-season? I know they need pitching but I’m uneasy, should I not be?
Keith Law: You should be uneasy but he is by far the best fit for them.

Brian: Small sample (less than 50 games), but is there any indication that Bo can stick at short?
Keith Law: I don’t believe he will.

Brian: what’s your top 3 MLB stadiums strictly based on food and drink options
Keith Law: I very rarely eat in MLB stadiums, but if I do I find a local vendor in the park.

Dallas: It’s no secret that HS RHP are incredibly volatile. I know last year’s draft didn’t have a top of the draft HS RHP but do you think the days of HS RHP going in the Top 10 are gone?
Keith Law: Not gone but definitely trending down. There will be years where the college crop disappoints and HS P get elevated, though.

TP: Agree that BVW got fleeced in the Cano/Diaz trade. What should the Mets have offered at the time to get a deal done? Not saying it was a good idea, but how much did they overpay?
Keith Law: It was all Kelenic for me. Take him out of the deal, replace him with some other prospect from their system, it’s nowhere near as bad.

Ben: In your opinion, is an offensive “core” of Riley Greene, Paredes, & Tork (or any other 1-1 bat) a good enough compliment to Mize, Manning, Skubal, Wentz, etc. to make a winning baseball team? The Tigers would have a lot of money to spend as well on additional bats as well
Keith Law: I think you’re overrating that offensive core. They’ll have money, but they’ll have to make better decisions on hitters.

Jerry: I’m a 50-something unapologetic progressive. But even I can see that the upcoming, imminent collapse of the gop is probably not a good thing for the country. Or am I overrating the appeal of checks and balances from opposing sides/povs?
Keith Law: I am hopeful a more rational conservative party will emerge after this is over – one that argues for smaller government, say, but doesn’t deny science or oppose basic human rights for anyone other than straight white men.

Gest : Who do you like more in 2020, Giolito or Paddack?
Keith Law: Giolito, although bear in mind he’ll pitch in the AL in a good hitters’ park, while Paddack will be in the NL in a good pitchers’ park, so if this is a fantasy question I might go the other way.

Phil: True or False: Bryce Harper is having a pretty damn fine season.
Keith Law: True.

Gest : Do you play the Catan expansions? Would you say it’s worth the added investment?
Keith Law: They make the game longer, so while I like their concepts I don’t play with them.

Sage: Any tips to change chords quicker?
Keith Law: Practice, and maybe considering alternate fingerings that set you up for the next chord.

Kendra: I get that reasonable minds can disagree on things, but how did we get to the point where if you are a dem the sky is blue and if GOP it’s green? Objectively speaking both the Muller report and the whistleblower report show impeachable offenses. It’s so sad to see the “greatest country” on earth be a banana republic and “reputable” men behave the way they are. Not one GOP rep asked a question about the actual report today when talking to the DNI. It’s insane.
Keith Law: We got here because it worked for the GOP. Their irrational statements are rational if you assume their sole goal is to get and hold office. If people stopped voting for them when they said climate change was a hoax or handwaved away Trump’s various offenses, they’d change their tune. Political parties are pretty responsive to voter habits. If the GOP gets trounced in 2020, they’ll pivot.

Adam: What band has had the most influence over your musical taste?
Keith Law: I would say Nirvana, specifically with Nevermind, did the most to form my musical taste as an adult, both for the specific sound of the album and in creating a still-ongoing interest in finding new music outside of the mainstream.

FTN: Keith, is Austin Hays back to being a top 25 prospect in baseball?
Keith Law: Well, he never was one, so … no.

Dallas: If the current state of baseball remains, the home run numbers are really going to skew arbitration values. I think we may see a lot of hearings this off-season because players like to go off of good seasons and I think the LRD is going to want to curb values. Only way to do that is to go and win arb cases to prove your point.
Keith Law: It’ll be hard in year one because you use comparables from the recent past and so many current players will have higher HR and SLG than the players to whom they’re being compared from 1, 2, and 3 years back.

Mitchell: I see many (far too many, imo) Brewer fans that do not like to give Craig Counsell any credit for the way he manages the Brewers. I’m not sure how much of an impact a manager can truly have, but it appears his strategy, especially in pitcher usage, has paid great dividends. How much credit does Counsell deserve?
Keith Law: He’s good, no? I think he’s done a really nice job, and has evolved over his tenure.

Mike: Vlad is going to be fine…….right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Mike: Do you (and perhaps your ESPN) colleagues negotiate directly with the company, or do you have an agent?
Keith Law: I have an agent who negotiates with the ESPN talent office. My boss isn’t directly involved, and I’m not really either. It’s better for maintaining these relationships going forward.

Kendra: My son’s friend is a really sweet, kind kid. I was hanging out with his parents and the Dad called a NFL player the n word. I told him that I find that talk objectionable, ended my time with him and don’t plan on hanging out again. I agree with you in cutting racists out of your life, but what would you do if this was your daughter’s friend? Does she still get to play with him?
Keith Law: I’d probably decline to let my daughter go to that house again, knowing that such language is probably typical (you don’t just bust out that word in front of company).
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say she couldn’t be friends with the kid, though.

Sedona: Do you see similarities between Paddack and Jefferies?
Keith Law: I do not.

Ben: Keith, regarding your response about the Tigers, would Torkelson be a more likely 1-1 candidate for the Tigers than anyone else? Famous, and loud tools, but with positional/value concerns that a more modern FO would shy away from?
Keith Law: Heh, I didn’t think of that, but it’s a good point. I think the industry sense is that the Tigers are a good bit behind other teams in the analytics department.

John: Any rumblings about who the Phillies are considering for the Almaraz vacancy?
Keith Law: Yes, but nothing I can share, sorry.

Bill: Can we start with the idea that a U.S. President can’t ever have a conversation with another foreign leader about investigating his opponent…and go from there? I can’t believe we even have to argue that point.
Keith Law: Well, we had previously said that a US President had to divulge his tax returns, and divest himself of most of his assets, and not use the office for personal financial gain, yet here we are.

dave: Did you see bernie sanders tweet saying Billionares should not exist?? smh..
Keith Law: I did. I understand his point, although I’m not sure that sound byte is going to hit well with enough voters to make it beneficial. People get to billion-dollar wealth because our economic system allows it, and because our capital gains tax rate is so low.

Zac: Jack Morris just said if the Tigers rank Torkelson and Hancock the same they should take the pitcher because he says pitching prospects hold more value than hitters…What are your thoughts on that?
Keith Law: I know you’re shocked, but he has it backwards.

jimmyb: As a pretty accomplished home chef, I’m hoping you can help me with something I’m struggling with. I’ve been using (brand) for dinnertime, and really am enjoying the convenience and ease of meal prep, but without sacrificing complexity or flavor. However, I feel like I’m cheating. I’ve got a busy schedule, so meal planning is kind of out of the question – is there something wrong with using these services?
Keith Law: Sorry, I took the brand out just so it doesn’t look like an ad, but jimmyb is talking about one of those companies that deliver ingredients and recipes to you. I see absolutely nothing wrong with using them if you’re happy with the ingredient quality. You’re cooking, and that’s better than eating out or eating lots of highly processed foods.

Chris: Do you see the baseball changing next year?
Keith Law: Yes but I have no idea how.

Ron: Taking my 10 year old daughter to Cooperstown next month – Have not been there for 25 years maybe (all I remember is the who’s on first movie) – any suggestions on exhibits to avoid and must see – thanks
Keith Law: I actually haven’t been since 1989.
Keith Law: It’s not close to me … or to anything else.

Moe Mentum: Which movies from your own childhood (70s or 80s) have you shared with your daughter? And were they met with adulation or contempt?
Keith Law: She bailed on the Dark Crystal! That was a bummer. But she loved Who Framed Roger Rabbit? and I loved it just as much as an adult.

JR: Do you cook as much as you used as a single guy? Obviously if you are with your daughter/GF I’m sure you still do, but do you enjoy “cooking for one” or do you eat out more instead? If so, what’s your game plan when cooking solo? small portions or plan on leftovers?
Keith Law: Plan on leftovers, usually. Good nights to experiment; I can always feed myself if something goes horribly wrong. Now that the season is ending I’ll also probably go see some movies in Philly on those nights and eat up there.

Dallas: According to report from Tim Britton on the Athletic, the Mets worked with Amed Rosario on positioning his feet. Since the work, I’ve noticed his DRS which was horrendous has basically stayed the same while his UZR has improved to just about average. I think a little more experience for Amed may end up in making your grades on him look good.
Keith Law: I didn’t see that, but thank you, I’m glad to hear it as I saw Rosario as a prospect and never thought he’d struggle this much in the field.

Chris: O/U on Wheeler total dollars this offseason: $65M
Keith Law: Buster thinks over and he tracks this more than I do.

Stu: Do either Zach Collins or Jake Rogers have futures besides maybe backup catching?
Keith Law: Rogers is a perfect backup for me – good defensive catcher without much bat. Collins is a really bad catcher with power and I don’t know what that is in MLB today

Chris: O/U McNeil BA in 2020: .300
Keith Law: Probably the under; he’s way under that in the second half. Seems like he’s selling out just a little for power, which isn’t a bad tradeoff.

Nick: Hey KLaw, no question, I just wanted to say thanks for all you do. We had a very slight dustup a few years ago when I was in college over Austin Romine and his defensive abilities at catcher. All these years later, I just wanted to say, you were very right at the time. I subscribe to insider entirely for your content. And your openness with mental health has helped me a lot. Thanks again, I really enjoy reading your work.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I don’t remember the dustup but I’m glad I was right. (I kid!)

Joe: Do team executives from losing clubs believe the only way to become competitive is to lose as many games as possible for several years in order to build their prospect base? Since Houston and the Cubs were successful, it seems like this is a road map for many teams.
The system has to change – five teams began this season in a race to the bottom and its not likely to change next year. As much as I hate the NBA lottery system, it seems like the way to go – MLB should provide no incentive to build a last place team. Thoughts?
Keith Law: It’s an easy (lazy?) strategy. I would love to see MLB alter the top of the draft to discourage this.

TomBruno23: Great call on Omaha, we took our three kids (ages 7,5,3) there last Thanksgiving weekend and were very impressed with all the things to do and food to eat)
Keith Law: Very walkable downtown with lots to do/eat. Great board game cafe maybe 10 minutes outside of downtown called Spielbound.

Jw: Wait, you were asked a question about coming back to ESPN. What did I miss? You posted a story on espn today. So confused.
Keith Law: Sorry to confuse everyone – I am still at ESPN, but my contract is up on December 31st. I have made no decisions on my future yet.

Todd: Josh Stowers or Caanan Smith legit OF prospects for the Yankees?
Keith Law: I mentioned Smith in a previous chat – I think he’s a potential extra guy, maybe a little more. Not a Stowers believer.

Hector: Would a package starting with Vaughn and Madrigal be enough to get Mookie on the South Side. Would it be worth it for the White Sox with no assurances Mookie re-signs with them
Keith Law: I don’t see what Madrigal does for the Red Sox.

Arnold: Just curious…who are the top high school or college prospects that you hope to personally go see in the Spring?
Keith Law: I’ll decide that as we get closer; it depends as much on budget and my own schedule – I have a book coming out in April, and that will require some of my time too – as anything else.

Drew: Are you a Baroness fan, and if so, what are your thoughts on their latest record?
Keith Law: I’ve listened to a bunch of their previous stuff but nothing ever grabs me. It’s great from a technical perspective but I don’t connect with the songs.

Sedona: Has Brady Singer’s AA performance changed your valuation at all?
Keith Law: No, since nothing about him has changed.

Joey: How do you grade pitchers deliveries? You talk a lot about “bad delivery” but you never once have indicated what it is you like/dislike
Keith Law: That’s utterly and completely false. When I write up players, I explain what I do and don’t like about their deliveries.
Keith Law: If you’re only reading my chats, well, the bulk of my content is on ESPN.com.

Jeff: Is Tatis the most probable candidate to be a perennial MVP the next 10 years?
Keith Law: Acuna certainly gives him a run for his money there.

Ryan: What do you think the floor is for Tatis next season. 30/30 with maybe outside shot at 40/40 if he stays healthy for the whole season?
Keith Law: I wonder if they try to get him to steal a bit less so he doesn’t get hurt.

J.: Weeks ago you mentioned something about the Tigers not having any all-time draft busts – care to share the reason why?
Keith Law: I didn’t say that.

Stu (UK): I’m going to a World Series game! What city should I be hoping for? What would be most disappointing? -Cheers, Stu
Keith Law: I mean, hard to beat NY or LA. Oakland means you can stay in San Francisco. Don’t sleep on Minneapolis which is a wonderful city, even when it’s cold.

Buddy: Scherzer is still great obviously, but lefties roughed him up a bit this year. Any concern on your end?
Keith Law: Not yet. One-year platoon splits can be misleading.

Joey Joe Joe: Jakson Reetz back to being a prospect?
Keith Law: Not really.

Jeff: A lot of comparisons between Judge and Alonso – is Judge the better overall player?
Keith Law: Fully healthy, yes.

Zach: Re: Meal Prep. I used meal prep in the past to learn new recipes and/or cooking techniques. Not to use 52 weeks a year. Sometimes cookbooks can be too intimidating, it’s different when the ingredients are already there and you’re “forced” to try
Keith Law: Great point. I’m never going to shame anyone for cooking their way and not “my” way. Hell, my way is a bit over the top because I work from home and I can start dinner at 2 pm if I want.

Nick: Fan of The Good Place? Final season premier tonight!
Keith Law: I am, but haven’t watched S3 yet. That’s a show I have to binge … the episode cliffhangers stress me out.

Todd: If you think billionaires should exist, something inside you is broken
Keith Law: That’s not helpful either. There is actual research on the harm of income inequality, such as in rising crime rates, but simply attacking billionaires for being billionaires isn’t going to change anyone’s minds.

dave: whens the last time a team had a 1-2 punch like the stros do/ are they WS faves for you?
Keith Law: I would pick them right now but I don’t really think there’s such a thing as a playoff “favorite” since any team that gets into the playoffs can win, and statements about any team being much more likely than another one to win a series/the whole thing are not supported by history.

Buddy: Whatever you decide, PLEASE keep these chats going next year and beyond.
Keith Law: They’ll still be here, trust me.

Jeff: Is Mike Trout the best player you’ve ever seen in all your years of doing this?
Keith Law: Yes.

Mevo: If you are Theo Epstein, would you trade Biaz for luis Severino 1 for 1? Would yanks do that?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t trade for Severino coming off a year where he had a significant shoulder issue.

Buddy: Doesn’t “utterly” mean the same thing as “completely”?
Keith Law: Totally.

Cameron: I asked on periscope what the best restaurant in Houston was and I didn’t write it down and slipped my mind. Can you remind me, please. Thanks.
Keith Law: Xochi. Get the duck and the chocolate river/rocks thing.

Jon: FWIW, I just red Tom Cotton said “no comment” on the allegation of WH trying to bury the report. The fact that a guy like him didn’t jump to “this is all a farse by the democrats to renew the mueller report” is, in my view, a little telling that this is a bigger deal.
Keith Law: That’s interesting. Also, Red Tom Cotton is a pretty good nickname.

Andy: LOL@ Tigers not having draft busts. It was only 22 years ago that 1-1 in the draft was a relief pitcher.
Keith Law: Yeah and they’ve whiffed on a lot of high picks. Scott Moore. Jacob Turner.

Robbie: Hey Keith, appreciate the chat as always. Do you see there being anyone in the braves minor league system with the potential to be a star outside of Pache?
Keith Law: Sure, several guys. Waters maybe, although I’m a little lighter on him with his low walk rate. Contreras could be. One of those pitchers has to be a star … it would be improbable that none of them turns out to be more than an average starter.

JP: Report on Jaleo….amazing (and pricey, obviously). Croquetas, gambas al ajillo, and chorizo were all out of this world, along with the spanish wine. disappointed we didn’t get the paella. highly recommend.
Keith Law: Dying to get down there to support Chef Andres.

Craig: You’ve talked about guys that you got wrong. Which scouting report are you most proud of, where you nailed a guy’s potential (or lack thereof) exactly, while most of the industry was wrong?
Keith Law: Part of why I don’t love talking about that is that so many are of the form that I said a player wasn’t good, got shit for it, and was right. It feels a bit tacky. I am pleased to see Lucas Giolito justify my long-held faith in him, or Jorge Soler finally show at least some of the potential I saw from him back in the AZL.

Diamondbacks: Purely scouting the stat line here, but Jamie Westbrook in the DBacks system put up some pretty good numbers. Very little out there about him though…what’s the story? He’s 25, so maybe a little old for his level. Is he a butcher in the field or something?
Keith Law: Doesn’t really have a position, not a good swing either.

John: What position is Devers long term?
Keith Law: Third base.

Joe: Better than Bonds?
Keith Law: Bonds was already huge when I saw him, and no longer the elite defender he was in the 1990s.

Chris: Your readers enjoy these chats. But why do you?
Keith Law: Why not? It’s fun to talk to you guys (most of you guys, at least!). I get to crack jokes and answer questions that many of you have, and sometimes I learn stuff too, or get ideas for future content. It is tiring, because I have to be “on” for an hour or more, but I do enjoy them.

Ted: More likely to get more starts in the Rangers rotation next year? Brock Burke or Palumbo?
Keith Law: I feel like both guys get 20+ starts.

Tim Robinson: The President basically suggested the whistleblower and source should be killed. Perfectly normal Thursday here.
Keith Law: Yep. And, again, the GOP falls in line. Mo Brooks did. Thom Tillis did. It’s astonishing.

Adam: You should try Crujiente while youre in PHX. Best Tacos I have ever had!
Keith Law: I tried to get there in the spring but there was something … maybe weird hours? … that prevented me. Thanks.

Jeff: Any general advice for a new parent?
Keith Law: Buy “The Happiest Baby on the Block.” And try to get whatever sleep you can. My ex-wife and I eventually settled on alternating nights – I would feed our daughter one night, she would feed her the next – so every night somebody got something approximating a full night of sleep. It worked for us; experiment and figure out what works for you.

Eric: The New York Times just basically gave really specific identifying information about the whistleblower. Dean Baquet should be ashamed of himself for putting that info in the paper of record.
Keith Law: I’ll add it to the list of things Baquet should be ashamed of, behind employing Bret Stephens and Bari Weiss for their opinions.

Andy: Your long-time readers remember the ones you got crap about for saying they weren’t very good. Junior Lake is dominating the Mexican League though.
Keith Law: Yep. Not the only Cub on that secret list of mine, either.

Eric: Advice for a new parent: onesies are stretchy at the top so they can be put on/taken off from the bottom without having to go over the head. helps a lot when a newborn is sleeping.
Keith Law: Oh god, I forgot about onesies…
Keith Law: My daughter is 13, folks. Longtime readers probably remember me talking about her when she was a baby, doing chats while she napped. They grow up fast.

Eric: I don’t know a “Bret Stephens.” Only a “Bedbug Stephens.”
Keith Law: Yep, my mistake. That’s the guy.
Keith Law: Thanks for all the questions this week! I will try to do one more next week and then skip the week I’m in Arizona. I am buried in book-writing right now – past 3/4 of my word count, at least – but I’m trying to at least keep to a regular chat/Periscope schedule for the time being. Enjoy this last weekend of regular-season baseball!

Stick to baseball, 9/21/19.

My one ESPN+ column this week looked at players I was wrong about, including Shane Bieber and Jeff McNeil. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday and a Periscope video chat on Tuesday.

I discussed details of my new book, due out in April 2020 from HarperCollins, in this week’s edition of my free email newsletter. You can pre-order the book already on amazon.

I joined the East Village Times podcast to talk about the Padres’ farm system this week.

And now, the links…