The Shadow King.

Maaza Mengiste’s 2020 novel The Shadow King was nominated for the Booker Prize last year, making the shortlist before losing to the Scottish novel Shuggie Bain. An epic war novel that also comes across as deeply personal – which, it turns out, it is – The Shadow King also tells a forgotten story of the roles women play in wartime, roles that are not limited to staying home waiting for the men.

Set in Ethiopia in 1935, the main narrative revolves around Hirut, an orphaned girl taken in as a servant by a neighboring couple, Kidane and his wife Aster, as well as the nameless cook who also works for them. Kidane was friendly with Hirut’s parents and agreed to care for her, but Aster sees her as a romantic rival, and becomes increasingly abusive to Hirut through the novel’s first section. The cook has her own complicated, longtime relationship with Aster, and now tries to protect Hirut, as the two share cramped quarters while the vain Aster appears to live in relative luxury, demanding material rewards from Kidane and clutching them like heirlooms.

Then war arrives, in the person of the Italian fascisti, as the Italian tyrant Benito Mussolini attempted to annex the kingdom of Ethiopia, which they had tried previously to control via two prior wars and a disputed treaty. Their arrival leads Kidane to head off to war, but rather than waiting behind, Aster also grabs a gun and departs separately, also intending to fight, bringing Hirut and the cook with her. While at the front, they meet Minim, a poor man who happens to bear a strong resemblance to the Emperor, Haile Selassie, who ruled from 1930 to 1974 and was the last in a dynasty of rules that dated back to the 13th century. Selassie had fled to England, where he was ruling in exile (and comfort), so the leaders of the Ethiopians’ untrained army, with simple weapons and no armored vehicles (compared to the Italians’ modern weapons and tanks and highly trained soldiers), realize that seeing their king would help motivate the soldiers, so they use Minim as a stand-in so the fighters would believe Selassie had come to join them at the front.

Mengiste sets you up to think Hirut will be the downtrodden heroine with whom you should sympathize, with Aster the antagonist, but the novel isn’t that linear in plot or purpose. Aster takes on a new role when the war begins, while Hirut also just becomes less central, and Kidane turns out to be less a protector than Hirut originally thought. Mengiste also introduces a second subplot around the Italian photographer Ettore, a Jewish man who is serving a government he knows may choose to end his liberty or his life at any time, and that he learns has likely killed his parents, even as he continues to document the war and the army’s killings by photographing every Ethiopian they execute in their final moments. His story and that of the women will, of course, intersect before Ethiopia falls and the novel ends.

This is a war novel, and a feminist one too, but in no way does Mengiste let the latter mitigate or soften any part of the former – her women are strong, and unwilling to be limited by any social customs that keep women from fighting when the country’s existence is at stake. The Shadow King is brutal and violent. Her descriptions invoke the dry, hot, dusty climate where the soldiers gathered to plan guerrilla attacks and futile defenses – the Ethiopians fought for about 16 months, but succumbed in 1937 – and where Minim takes on the role of body double. They also add to the sense of desperation around Ettore, a noncombatant in the service of a country that views him as less than human and that will, soon enough, be willing to send him to his death, but who is every bit the stranger in a strange land in Ethiopia and visibly an intruder and enemy to the native population. The juxtaposition of the stories can be jarring, certainly incongruous, but their intersection is one of the novel’s most powerful moments, combined with the return of Haile Selassie from exile and the aftermath of the Italian occupation. I haven’t read Shuggie Bain and can’t comment on whether this is better, but I easily understand its nomination.

Stick to baseball, 2/13/21.

For subscribers to the Athletic, my ranking of all 30 organizations ran this week on Wednesday, followed by my team-by-team reports and top 20s for the AL East and AL Central:

The remaining four divisions will run on Monday through Thursday of this week. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

My podcast guest this week was Bobby Heck, Special Assistant to the GM of the Tampa Bay Rays and one of the architects of the Rays’ 2020 AL champs and the multiple pennant-winning Astros teams of a few years ago. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify.

At Paste, I reviewed the press-your-luck game 7 Summits, co-designed by the designer of Sagrada.

My last edition of my free email newsletter shared some details of my recent nuptials; I’m overdue for another issue because I’ve been writing the team reports and top 20s. You can still buy The Inside Gameand Smart Baseball anywhere you buy books; the paperback edition of The Inside Game will be out in April.

And now, the links…

  • Longreads first: New Republic looks at QAnon and the cultification of the American right, which will continue without Trump and without the nonexistent Q. The same publication argued that the Democratic Party does not understand the QAnon phenomenon, which has enraptured more educated, well-off people than the Democrats think.
  • Also from the New Republic – this is a coincidence – the alt-right problem in standup comedy, where people like Gavin McInnes have tried to use comedy to legitimize their racist beliefs.
  • The Republican Party has willingly allied itself with armed self-styled militias.
  • Louisiana’s Attorney General Jeff Landry, a Republican, has sued a reporter for filing a FOIA request. The only way you could more directly assault freedom of the press would be to arrest the reporter – which I assume is next.
  • Donald Trump’s incompetence and science denial has helped the U.S. have the highest case and death rates from COVID-19 in the developed world. A new panel estimates that 40% of the deaths were attributable to federal government policies – not just our late response, but structural problems like reduced access to health insurance and growing income inequality. Trump inherited a bad public health situation and made it much worse.
  • Governors across the U.S. are allowing more and more indoor dining before enough people are vaccinated to control the pandemic, which could lead to greater spread of the more infectious variants already present in the country. Delaware has been among the best states in testing and in vaccinations, but we’re already moving to 50% occupancy in restaurants, which seems contrary to scientist’s recommendations.
  • “The only truly clean energy is less energy.” So-called “clean” energy requires a lot of dirty infrastructure.
  • Phoenix police may have specifically targeted Black activist Bruce Franks, Jr., when they arrested him and hit him with a variety of serious charges after his arrest during an August 2020 protest. The grand jury that indicted him didn’t see any video from the event, but were only given police testimony, which this ABC15 investigation found included multiple false statements.
  • Earwig and the Witch, the first 3-D animated film from Studio Ghibli, is a disaster across the board. It’s directed by Goro Miyazaki, the son of Ghibli founder Hayao Miyazaki.
  • Instagram has banned anti-vaxxer and COVID-19 denier Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. for spreading disinformation about COVID-19 vaccines. All platforms should do the same. He’s a menace to public health, and his words will lead to more deaths.
  • If you’ve been to a baseball game in Arizona, you likely have heard vendor Derrick Moore and his signature “Lemonade, lemonade, like grandma made!” call. He’s facing some sort of serious medical issue and doesn’t have health insurance – nice country we have here, folks – so there’s a GoFundMe to try to help him.
  • My daughter and I have been watching The Mandalorian, which is entertaining but hasn’t quite lived up to the hype for us – nearly every problem the main character faces is solved by shooting everyone in sight. Anyway, Gina Carano, who played Cara Dune, will not be returning for season 3 after months of tweets that ranged from transphobia to COVID-19 denial to false claims about the election, with a recent post comparing the negative consequences she’s facing to the Nazi genocide against Jews. My best guess is that Disney had warned her they wouldn’t renew her contract if she didn’t knock it off, and she did it anyway.
  • TikTok might be good for the music industry, but it’s not good for good music, as the recent soporific “Drivers License,” which has spent four weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100, demonstrates.
  • President Biden promised to fire any of his subordinates who harassed colleagues or otherwise treated them inappropriately, but the first major test of that came this week when a Deputy Press Secretary threatened to “destroy” a Politico reporter for writing about a relationship he had with an Axios writer. As of Friday night, the Deputy Press Secretary had only been suspended for a week. It’s not acceptable.
  • France has arrested five people so far for making online death threats against a teenager known as Mila, who posted several Islamophobic statements on social media.
  • Board game news: Renegade announced pre-orders for the June release of the second edition of Gravwell.
  • Asmodee’s years-long acquisition spree went in a new direction this week with the purchase of BoardGameArena, one of the most popular online board gaming sites. W. Eric Martin has some analysis of what this means over at BoardGameGeek.

Klawchat 2/11/21.

Starting today at 1 pm. I ranked all 30 farm systems for subscribers to the Athletic yesterday, and my team-by-team top 20s and org reports began today with the AL East – Baltimore, Boston, NY Yankees, Tampa Bay, and Toronto. Also, I reviewed the fun press-your-luck game 7 Summits for Paste.

Keith Law: Use your detour, life’s like a seesaw. Klawchat.

RJ: How much of a change does the Khalil Lee trade make for the Royals and Mets
Keith Law: In their system rankings? None. But Lee is now on the Mets’ top 20, which will run early next week, and was 8th on the Royals’ list.

Trevor: Klaw – even amidst the financial uncertainty teams still PAID the top tier players with high-dollar or long-term contracts. Of the four, 5+ year or 9-figure contracts (Springer, JT, DJ, Bauer), which would you be most comfortable investing in holding it’s value?
Keith Law: Springer. That’s why he was #1 on my list – best long-term impact.

Max: I know it hasn’t been a full two years, but are you seeing changes with the Astros under Click re: incorporating traditional scouting alongside the advanced metrics?
Keith Law: Not yet, but I also think he wasn’t able to staff up effectively during the pandemic.

addoeh: Ford Proctor; new compact sport-utility EV being released later this year or Rays IF/C prospect?
Keith Law: Or protagonist in a bad 1980s action movie?

John Olerud: Why do you hate my Mariners? Seriously, though, on a pure baseball front, no matter where one is to rank the Ms farm system overall, it does seem that (despite maybe a few cringe-worthy moves during Dipoto’s “trade a paperclip for a house” phase) for the first time in a long time Seattle might  finally have some workable approach to drafting and development. That said, in knowing what you know and talking to the people you trust to put together these lists, would you agree with this sentiment? Or do you think in your estimation that the Ms ownership would do better not to extend Dipoto’s current contract and look elsewhere?
Keith Law: I do think they’re heading in the right direction on multiple fronts, not least of which is that they’re keeping prospects rather than trading them. I think the confusion among some Mariners fans is that the top of the system is so good – and hasn’t been like this in at least a decade – but it falls off very quickly after the top tier of seven guys.

NYT Parody Lede: Former President Trump may have incited the insurrection at the Capitol on January 6, but these five people in this Ohio diner think he didn’t do anything wrong.
Keith Law: Don’t give the Grey Lady any ideas.

nickolai: Thoughts on MLB’s decision to deaden the ball for 2021?  A return to sanity, or just something else MLB will F up?
Keith Law: Half measure. Really need to see the strike zone change as well, or we’re going to end up with fewer home runs but no reduction in strikeouts.

Ben (MN): The running joke is that you hate every fan’s favorite team, but do you ever get negative feedback from people in the business (non-players or family members)? I’d imagine it would look a lot different than the internet comments, but any angry voicemails or texts over the years saying something like “how can player X not make your list”?
Keith Law: Extremely rarely. It’s what makes fan complaints so hilarious. Team execs know my information is good and my opinions are at least backed by research and evidence (which doesn’t make them right, of course). But this is the time of year when every fan is an expert on the other 29 teams’ prospects.

xxx(yyy): favorite cold weather food?
Keith Law: The most honest answer is pizza, which is also my favorite hot weather food, and my favorite lukewarm weather food.

Deke: I’m sure the massive deadline was a good motivator, but how are you/have you been dealing with 2020/2021-based ennui? I feel like everybody I know has hit a wall over the past few weeks.
Keith Law: What’s really hurt is the sudden arrival of more snow and ice than we’ve had in Delaware in at least five years, so I haven’t been able to run much at all. I’m playing some more games online, and trying to meditate more, but like you I am just over all of this. I will finish all the team writeups by EOD Monday and I’m going to take a couple of days to recharge somehow.

Alex: Looking at the Marcell Ozuna contract as a Braves fan, I can’t help thinking that it was an outright steal. Of course, it feels like every corner outfielder has been underpaid this winter. Since he’ll be playing the field for one more season, how many runs do you think he’s likely to give back with the glove? Do you feel that his negative defensive value is overstated or is he really Adam Dunn out there?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s as bad as Adam Dunn and I agree the deal was great value for them.

Guest: While I’m not disappointed with the Mets offseason (Porter notwithstanding) I thought there were some head scratching moves. The Springer thing I could understand because of DH uncertainty. I thought they overpaid for Mccann. Also, why not try and make a better offer for Darvish? I’d rather get him than pay $40m for Bauer. OR try and get Arenado.
Keith Law: They could have topped the Arenado offer, certainly, although I have no complaints about them acquiring Lindor and Carrasco.

John: Hi Keith! Could you please compare Robert Hassell vs Zac Veen in terms of overall raw tools ? Who is better prospect ? Thanks
Keith Law: I think that question is answered more fully on my top 100 than I could give you here.

Ben: Hi Keith. Thanks as always for your work. Do you hear any scuttlebut or have any theories on why the Yankees seem to have so much trouble keeping their players—at both the minor and major league level—healthy?
Keith Law: Is that true? More so than other clubs?

Fred: Besides Dylan Carlson, which Cardinals’ prospects have the highest ceiling? Walker? Winn? Hence?
Keith Law: Probably Walker, but his probability is low – he has a ways to go with the bat. He’s as raw a hitter as the typical Mississippi high school product (he’s from Georgia, so I’m saying he’s analogous to MS kids, who have the worst track record in the draft of any southern state).

Onion Bubs: You may have addressed this somewhere before, and if so, I apologize: When ranking farm systems, how much do you weigh the top few prospects vs. the depth of the system?
Keith Law: You need both. A system with 4-5 high-end prospects but no depth is not going to rank ahead of a system with 3 high-end prospects but depth of 10-12 more guys with everyday upside.

Chris: Thoughts on the Bauer contract?
Keith Law: No.

Arty: If you’re the Cardinals, given how the infield is looking, do you feel comfortable going into the season with an outfield mix of O’Neill/J. Williams/L. Thomas/Bader/Carlson or do you think they should add another OF to the mix?
Keith Law: I really hope they give Williams a shot. He’s never been an elite prospect but I think he’s a big leaguer, and he may surprise us and be a soft regular.

Jason: Pecota has the brewers winning the central. Do you agree? and, do you think they should sign Turner if they can?
Keith Law: Without doing any real work to investigate the question I would pick the Cardinals.

Dave: Thanks for the time today.  From the prospect stable of middle infielders – who do you ultimately see as the 2B/SS combo for Cleveland?
Kane: What can you tell us about the Diamondbacks host of pitching prospects? Anyone stick out to you as someone who pitches near the front of their future rotation?
Keith Law: If Arias hits, he’s your shortstop, but that’s a huge if. Rocchio at 2b seems like the most probable of their current MIF prospects to stay at a position and hit.
Keith Law: Dbacks report will be up next week but I think Walston’s their top pitchiing prospect in terms of ceiling and also present value.

Chris: Hi Keith I’m looking at the mariners ranking of 13th compared to being 11th last year and noticed you increased the rankings of their 1, 3, 4 and 5 prospect from this year to last and that they retained prospect eligibility of the majority of their top 15. What led to this drop, did other systems improve a lot, was last year a down year, or did the graduation of sheffield and lewis (7 and 10 last year) effect their ranking more so than the addition of hancock (rated higher than white) and trammell (rated higher than dunn)?
Keith Law: There are 29 other teams in baseball and their systems also changed in the last year.

Jason: Thoughts on Keston Hiura playing first?
Keith Law: I wonder if he’s really going to hit enough to be more than a 50 there. He can hit, but I don’t see more than average power, and his other tools are all limited.

Ben: Do you think Brian Cashman sees the Dodgers acting like a big market team with big revenues and feels frustrated that Steinbrenner won’t let him do likewise?
Keith Law: I mean, I could see 28 other GMs playing a symphony on the world’s 28 tiniest violins.

Mike: Hi Keith. Love your books and all your writing! Question about PTBNL. When the Sox have 3 of them in this deal do they have an actual list of names they can choose from in the future or are there just parameters of the types of guys? Thanks!
Keith Law: In this deal I assume there’s a list for each team – you can take 2 of these 5.

Thomas: Your ranking of my team’s prospects isn’t as favorable as some other media outlets’. Therefore, I will choose to assume yours must be wrong. Definitely no confirmation bias here.
Keith Law: Every year.

Jake: I’m curious about what you heard about Seth Corry to jump him into your Top 100. I don’t believe he ever made it to the alternate camp so not even that meager bit of playing time last year.
Keith Law: Instructs.

Reverend Cory: Thanks for all your hard work Keith! Long winded question here. I grew to appreciate and generally love the use of analytics in the game over the past 15 years, but the last 2-3 I’ve started to sour on how organizations use them. Seems like we now have a league where every team is run like a hedge fund. It provides a great ROI for the owners, but it’s taken a toll on my enjoyment for the game. Do you think there is a solution for this? Thanks again.
Keith Law: MLB is set up as an effective profit machine in which it is no longer necessary for teams to win to make money.
Keith Law: I don’t know how you fix that other than creating incentives for teams to win.

MannyKay: I’ve never seen any mention of The Strokes on your music lists. They’re easily my favorite band of the 2000s. Are you not a fan?
Keith Law: Not really. Not not a fan, but I don’t find their music that interesting.

Ben (MN): Keith, I appreciate your willingness to discuss your own experiences with mental health. My wife has struggled to control anxiety, and often has trouble sleeping more than 5-6 hours a night (or less), largely due to her anxiety. The problem can spiral out of control at times, with poor sleep leading to anxiety about sleep, leading to more poor sleep, leading to more anxiety in daily life, etc. It seems to be at least partially genetic as her mom had a similar experience. She has been reluctant to seek help, largely because she is worried they will recommend medication, which she doesn’t want. Do you have any advice for positively encouraging people who may be reluctant to seek help for anxiety/mental health needs?
Keith Law: The most significant point I would make to your wife is that there are many medications available for GAD, and they are effective for many people at low doses that have limited side effects. I have been on SSRIs for over 8 years. I was also worried about starting one, worried that it would change my personality (it did, sort of, but for the better!) or that it would dull my thinking (it has not). I understand the hesitancy, but medication for my anxiety has been an unmitigated positive.

Jake: Have you heard anything more on how teams will organize their non full season prospects without the short season leagues? Any chance we see teams evolve towards 2 complex league teams mirroring hi and lo A ball?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s what will happen, which I think is kind of stupid in that there are communities out there that would gladly host these teams and allow someone to make a little money off attendance while baseball continued to build the national fan base, but instead they’re going to run twice as many teams in AZ and FL in the middle of the summer when it’s a thousand fucking degrees outside and all those players will play in front of no fans.

Arnold: Although the pandemic hospital rates are falling, it still seems like a bad idea to be opening spring training so soon.  MLB proposed pushing back the start, but the players objected and MLB caved.  I am pro-player on most disputes with management, but the players seem short-sighted on this.
Keith Law: The players didn’t object; they held to the terms of the collectively bargained agreement. I do think the season should be pushed back, but I don’t blame the players on this.

Arty: Reports are that Nolan Gorman is going to get a position switch now that Arenado and Goldschmidt have the corners locked down for a few years.. Can he handle 2B or is more likely going to have to move to LF?
Keith Law: I’d say right field.

Eric: Wader Franco+Fernando Tatis Jr+Ronald Acuña+Juan Soto=baseball is in good hands
Keith Law: Yes, if MLB gets more serious about marketing its nonwhite players. Especially those whose first language isn’t English. I think Tatis should be on the cover of everything, in every commercial, and to be fair I’m seeing more of him out there in the non-baseball world than I can remember seeing previous Latino stars, but MLB has to build massive campaigns around these guys.

Guest: Hi Keith, I’m wondering, if at all, how do certain teams developmental infrastructure impact your rankings? For example if a pitcher with the Rays get the benefit of the doubt more than say the Cubs who haven’t developed a pitcher in what seems like decade. I’m assuming evaluators like yourself would say not at all, but even subconciously
Keith Law: No, you can’t do that because any player can change organizations at any time (like Khalil Lee!). The player evaluations are all team-agnostic.

MannyKay: Based on your positive comments about Jahmai Jones’ potential, is it fair to say the Orioles won that trade in your opinion?
Keith Law: Yes, no-brainer for them. I love Jones and think he’ll thrive there.

Chamaco: Apologies if he is on your top 100 list or graduated off of it (and I just missed this), but I was wondering what you thought about Michael Kopech’s potential this year and in the future? If you Google “Michael Kopech,” you find a lot of non-baseball related articles, which can make it more challenging to find good information on him.
Keith Law: He’s on the top 100.

Matt: FYI- Many board games, including some on your Top 100, are buy 2 get 1 free at Target and Amazon today.
Keith Law: I’m looking at the amazon list now – from the BOGO list, I would recommend Splendor, Ticket to Ride, Blokus, Castles of Burgundy, and King of Tokyo.

Chris P: While I think Cavan Biggio is at least deserving of a roster spot, I really think the Jays should try to move him now while his value is likely going to be at its highest. The fact he struggles against quality fastballs is concerning.
Keith Law: It’s fatal. He can’t hit what is now an average major-league fastball. That’s why his best month in the majors has been September – he sees lower-quality pitching and pads the stats against them. I agree, I would shop him now, but to be honest, most other teams see the same flaws. His value is very low.

xxx(yyy): anything specific on the valentines menu for this weekend?
Keith Law: I haven’t planned that yet … I’ve got some CSA options still here and will figure something out around whatever veg I haven’t used elsewhere yet. I have a few ideas at least.

Jose: Do expect fans to be allowed at the minor leagues games this season ?
Keith Law: I do not, and if we’re not mostly vaccinated I don’t want fans at the games even (or especially) if they allow scouts and media.

Dee Arby: What are your thoughts on how we can become a more intellectual society? Or is that just a pipe dream and the masses will always be extremely gullible?
Keith Law: Greater investment in public education. Unfortunately we’re heading the other way, with huge dark-money efforts undermining public education (funded in part by the Dbacks’ owners) or trying to push right-wing ideologies into schools.

Rodney: Loved reading your Jays list this morning. How do you think time at the alt site changes a timeline for a player like Gabriel Moreno? The hitting approach seems advanced for his age, but catching takes time. Could he start at High-A, but see AA this year with a mid-2022 timeline, whether it’s in Toronto or elsewhere via trade?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d say that’s a possible-optimistic timeline.

Chris P: There were a few goons in the comments of an article on The Athletic about the health and safety protocols MLB and the PA agreed on, that were saying this is stupid because it’s all based on fear of something that isn’t *really* that dangerous. Regardless of if they are correct (they aren’t), how can people not see that this is also a huge financial issue. Imagine a player, staff, ump, or someone associated with them dies from Covid when it could have been prevented or at a minimum, addressed by the league like this. The money they’d have to pay out is worth way more than just a few health and safety rules.
Keith Law: Or, if you want to be really callous, the lost productivity when there’s a community outbreak, with associated quarantining, caused by MLB activity.

Santaspirt: I know you look back on previous top 100 lists you make and are always trying to improve your evaluations. You mention specifically undervaluing Goldschmidt as a prospect and using that example to evaluate Hoskins. The majors is littered with players who never made a top 100 – are there any other types you’ve noticed that are being undervalued at the moment? Types who don’t look like much but consistently break in to the show?
Keith Law: You may notice in a lot of my writeups this year acknowledgments of players who are under six feet but still project as big leaguers, even as stars (Corbin Carroll). I think that industry bias is still strong.
Keith Law: I mean, if Carroll was 6’3″, he goes top 3.

Nolan: I’m curious why Bauer seems to be causing such a clear divide within the baseball fandom. The most generous read of his behavior is he’s a troll. That’s just who he is and the online presence he’s cultivated, regardless of your take on it. But people seemed to have reacted so strongly to writers just pointing out that he has a history of behavior that any club would have to consider when deciding if they should sign him. Is that the main issue, that what some view as “censorship” or “cancel culture” is really just due diligence on a guy someone is about to pay an obscene amount of money to? Wouldn’t any club *rather* their 40m a year pitcher not also be an internet troll?
Keith Law: I do think some of his fans view this as cancel culture stuff, but I would be far more concerned that, given the chance to acknowledge his history of bullying on social media and promising to learn from the feedback, he chose to deny it all. That unwillingness to take responsibility for his words and actions does not speak well for the accountability he will have to take as a player and member of a new team.

Zac: Can you explain the difference between a #1 and #2 and #3 pitcher is?I think it would help me understand your prospect breakdown and why a pitchers ceiling is where it is?
Keith Law: I think of them in tiers. There should be about 15 aces (#1 starters) in any given year, give or take a few. Each tier below that – 2, 3, 4 – would have about 30 guys, one per team. There might be 30 Opening Day starters, guys who are first in their teams’ rotations, but they’re not all truly #1 starters who’d be aces on a majority of teams.

Alex: Does Tevin Vavra have enough of an arm to play 2b (one of the Os blogs had concerns of him playing 2b, much less filling in at SS)?
Keith Law: Yes.

Chris P: It has been pretty tough since the holidays with the weather and tighter restrictions, so I just want to say thanks for keeping up with the prospect rankings and giving us something to look forward to. My interest in baseball feels like it’s been waning, so this is coming at a great time.
Keith Law: Here’s hoping we get games soon for us to watch and argue about.

Aaron C.: Any new recipes/cookbook endeavors in klawland?
Keith Law: Cookbooks no, but the CSA has pushed us to try a lot of new recipes. This has been a huge hit – pasta with sausage, broccoli rabe, and chickpeas. I used chicken sausage and about 50% more pecorino romano than the recipe called for.

xxx(yyy): wife and i are going to go back and watch some classic movies she hasn’t seen – any comedies you think that stand the test of time?
Keith LawHis Girl Friday.

Dan: Thanks for that chat even though it’s so obvious you hate my team. I was surprised by what seems like a light return for Benintendi. Had the bottom really fallen out that much for him? Do you expect a return to the performance from even his rookie season?
Keith Law: He seems like he needs swing help, maybe something significant, and/or the Red Sox just felt they couldn’t help him develop any further. I’m shocked – I thought he’d be far better than this, at least hitting for consistently high averages even if he didn’t have 20+ HR power.

Tristan: Reading your org rankings, I’m struck by how quickly the Jays have rebuilt. They started after teams like Baltimore and Detroit who still seem years away from being years away. Is the credit deserved org-wide, or are there key personnel you look at driving this success?
Keith Law: It’s org-wide IMO but I also think their international scouting department deserves to be singled out for their substantial contributions.

Aaron C.: When you penned your “joined the Athletic” piece, you mentioned possibly writing about labor relations IIRC. Still in the cards for you/your editor?
Keith Law: Yes, hoping to get to that soon, now that we’re in CBA negotiation time.

Jon Weisman: Hi Keith. Would you be able to name your five favorite comic-strip characters of all time? (BTW, I’m not strict about it being exactly five.)
Keith Law: Opus, Steve Dallas, Hodgepodge, Portnoy, Calvin.

Dee Arby: Hitters who make the majors by age 20 usually turn out to be stars.  Is this the year Devers goes full bonkers?
Keith Law: He was pretty good in 2019. I’m still a buyer.

PJ: any chance the new CBA will allow players to hit free agency earlier? Seems like front offices are more weary of giving big contracts to 30/31yr olds, and that is what is driving these slow and underwhelming hot stove winters
Keith Law: I’d love to see that. Owners supported it in 1994 – they tried to force through much earlier free agency, I think after 4 years – but I don’t think they would do so now.

Pat D: I feel like this is the least interested I’ve been in the Oscars since before I became capable of seeing movies independently, even though it seems like I can watch all of the contenders through various streaming services.  I’m not sure if this is due to not being constantly bombarded with trailers and promotion due to lack of theater-going, or just general malaise from the year of COVID.  What’s your interest level this year?
Keith Law: Interested but we haven’t had time to see enough contenders yet, and the fact that the overall favorite, Nomadland, is still trying to do theatrical runs not only dims my interest but actively pisses me off. There’s a pandemic going on right now. Nobody should be watching movies in theaters.

Eric: Is Donald trump the worst American alive?
Keith Law: High bar to clear.

Jason (D.C.): If you’re the Rays, what do you do with middle infield when Wander Franco ready? Should they trade Adames or move to 2B? I assume Brujan will be there.
Keith Law: I bet Adames ends up traded. Not a knock on him, but he’d have more value in trade than he would as a 3b for them.

Tom: Can Brian goodwin be a league average OF for the pirates?
Keith Law: No. I’d bet on Oliva over Goodwin, although I think Oliva is a food 4th OF.

Todd Boss: In all your time ranking organizational farm systems, what would you say were your individual best and worst systems?  Like, 2018 Atlanta or 2019 San Diego as best and maybe Baltimore 2018 as worst?
Keith Law: The Angels had the worst ever, maybe five years ago. This year’s Rays’ system would make my top 3. San Diego 2019 is probably the best.

Casey: Do you think the Reds offseason was bad enough that they should look into kick starting a rebuild? Suarez and Gray look like great trade assets, and with the coming compensatory picks, that could move the Farm System in the top 10 in my opinion.
Keith Law: I’d trade Suarez to try to fill shortstop, move Senzel back to the infield, and still hope to compete this year.

xxx(yyy): What prospect were you the most “sure” on that ended up missing? Why? Assuming that guys like Josh Hamilton doesn’t really count since his issues were off the field-based
Keith Law: Justin Smoak.
Keith Law: It wasn’t just me – I remember pro scouts seeing him in his first go-round in pro ball, saying how did this guy get to the 11th pick.

Adam: Should the Padres regret not delaying Tatis’ service time? He’s already two years closer to FA without even playing 162 games.
Keith Law: I don’t think they regret it one bit after that playoff run in 2020.

JL: Assuming they have rotational health this year (a big assumption), what happens with Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint and Bryse Wilson? Especially for Wright and Touki, proving they can pitch in AAA isn’t the problem. If feels like a waste to have them not getting big league innings. Will it hurt development to have them pitch in Gwinnett for most of another season?
Keith Law: I’d put Touki in a longman role. He needs reps in the majors and that’s the best way to get them.

Sim: You mentioned in your last chat that Oneil Cruz’s legal issues had no bearing on him dropping off of your top-100. Was there something specific in his performance in the Dominican this past year that caused you to drop him 30+ spots in the rankings? I’m assuming the Pirates list will clarify some things.
Keith Law: There is no “dropping.” This isn’t Billboard where players move up or down with a bullet. I start each list from scratch.
Keith Law: I couldn’t tell you without looking where O’Neil Cruz was a year ago on my rankings. I can tell you I really don’t think he’s a shortstop.

Eric: Is a regular-stuffed Oreo still an Oreo?
Keith Law: That is the only Oreo.

Scully: In the Red Sox ’21 prospect rankings, you mention Dalbec could wind up on the roster depending what they do with Devers.  Would that be a positional move to 1B for Rafael?
Keith Law: Yes, I know that’s been discussed.

Ed: What do you see as probability of a Vlad Jr breakout this year? He seems to be more committed after his down, by his standards,  last season and seeing his contemporaries explode on the scene.
Keith Law: It’s really about the swing. He’s a bright enough kid to figure it out on his own but my understanding is he’s not someone they’re going to be able to take aside for a whole swing optimization.

nb: Keith – Mazel Tov on the wedding!  Glad something good came out of 2020!  I get that the Phillies system is bad, but do you think there’s hope for it to move up?  Seems like the oast 2 drafts have been good and they have some younger guys like Kendall Simmons.  Thanks!
Keith Law: I agree. Also one of their best prospects, Luis Garcia, had a horrible 2019 (not entirely his fault) and didn’t get 2020 to reestablish himself.

Scully: I’m sure you’ll write up an analysis of the KC-BOST-NYM trade… any quick thoughts you’d like to share here?
Keith Law: I won’t write it up, not with 3 players’ identities still unknown.

JL: No question, but just wanted to say that I re-read Smart Baseball this winter and am halfway through Inside Game and they’re two of the best books I’ve read in a long time. I even got a co-worker who is marginally interested in baseball to read Smart Baseball and he loved it.
Keith Law: Thank you. You can pre-order the paperback edition of The Inside Game, due out April 6th.
Keith Law: Sorry, I suddenly needed to eat some Oreos.

Paul: What does GM do all day? Not sarcastic, but when they’re saying we’re monitoring the trade market etc. does that mean they’re on the phone with 29 other GMs just asking if they’re buying or selling? If you’re Al Avila and you’re know you’re not making any big moves in the offseason – what are they doing all week?
Keith Law: Running an entire organization. The job of a GM is a lot more than just player acquisitions.

Jim Ed: Thoughts on the Red Sox returns in the Beni trade?
Keith Law: I like PTBNL #2 more than PTBNL #1 or PTBNL #3.

Jeb: No desire to have this posted. Just wanted to say thanks, as an Athletic subscriber. Love the content. I used your signup code so hopefully you get credit for my account in some manner.
Keith Law: I do get ‘credit,’ at least in the sense that the Athletic keeps track of such things, and I do too to see what readers particularly like or don’t like.

Ridley: I’ve seen you list “True Faith” as a perfect song and I wholeheartedly agree. Are there any others on your list? *stares in “Under The Milky Way”*
Keith Law: Great song as well.

Don Gately: the O’Neill Cruz situation just kind of went away and it seems like he’ll just be back with the club for spring. Was anything released about how/why it didn’t go further?
Keith Law: He was exonerated. And most importantly alcohol was not a factor.

Eric: @Ben – I have severe anxiety disorder. It took a full-on breakdown for me to seek help, and I wish I had sooner. Lexapro (for anxiety) and thc/cbd (For sleep) have been godsends.
Keith Law: I can’t vouch for the weed part personally but I appreciate your comments here.

John Olerud: Thank you so much for your response. If there is time for a follow up and continuing on with what you said: even if the Ms or any top-heavy farm system lacks depth, if they were to “really hit” on, say, four or more of those top 7 (given the overall quality of that bunch), would  you say they might be in a better position to compete down the road than some of the teams you rank above? That is, given that generally teams are trying to get as much value or WAR as they can out of each key position on the field, I guess I’m just wondering or trying to calibrate how to assess quality vs. quantity in a albeit unrealistic vacuum where every prospect were to reach their “future value” potential.
Keith Law: OK, but then why are we assuming the M’s will hit on 4 of those top 7 but not assuming a similar ‘hit’ rate for any clubs around them?

J. hawley: IF YOU KEEP CANCELING AND SILENCING ME I WILL KEEP GOING ON NATIONAL NEWS SHOWS TO TELL YOU HOW SILENCED I AM BEING!
Keith Law: I worry he’s going to end up some sort of hero to the alt-white and will end up a strong candidate in the 2024 primaries, which we’ve now seen, at least on the GOP side, are structured in a way that favors extreme candidates.

Dan: You called Mick Abel the best HS arm in last year’s draft, but he finished in your ‘just missed’ range. Is it especially difficult for a HS pitcher to make the top 100 just due to the proximity to the majors? Or was it a less than stellar HS pitcher class?
Keith Law: In The Inside Game I went through the history of high school pitchers in the draft, especially in the first round, and their lower success rate relative to other classes of players. I incorporated that into my draft rankings and am doing so as well in my pro rankings. It’s about avoiding bias in the rankings – I love Abel and think he’s a stud, but the base rate for HS pitchers just out of the draft is low.

Perry’s Relief Core: Was Jordyn Adams anywhere near your Top 100? Thanks for taking the time, Keith.
Keith Law: No. 80 runner, 80 athlete, but if you put him in the majors now it might be a 30 hit tool.

Kelsey: How diverse is the scouting world? How many women are in the industry?
Keith Law: Few women, but when I worked for the Jays I don’t believe there were any women in baseball operations jobs other than office roles. Now there are a few dozen, I think. We’re at the point where a team hiring a woman as a scout is no longer notable, and that’s great. What we need now is more GMs who come from underrepresented minority groups, and more managers too.

Uli Jon: I always mean to tell you that the Athletic comments section is not the cesspool those things tend to be, not vintage Deadspin but usually well thought out and some good interaction with writers.  Then the “Keith Law hates my team” brigade came out yesterday.  Hoo boy.
Keith Law: Yep. I didn’t even look at the comment thread yesterday, because if I want whines I’ll go to the liquor store.

Jason: Can Corbin Burnes be a Cy Young GUY?
Keith Law: Yes.

Morris: Been following you a long time, and my two favorite accusations of bias against you all time are 1) you get both “Klaw hates the Jays because he used to work for them” and “Klaw overrates the Jays because he used to work for them” and 2) “Klaw hates Lavarnway because he went to Yale.” What are your favorites?
Keith Law: I forgot about Lavarnway. The people who insist I hate the Yankees are extra-special, since I grew up a Yankee fan and my parents & sister are still Yankee fans, and my grandmother was one until she was about 98 or so. Also, anyone crying about East Coast bias really needs a pacifier.
Keith Law: My patience for these complaints declines every year. Grow up already. I do not have the capacity to hold all of these supposed biases against teams in my head. My cognitive load is high enough as it is.

JT: Are you still very much hopeful for Tirso Ornelas? Do we just have to be patient until we have some game action for him?
Keith Law: Yes.

PJ: What do you think would be the key to getting us consistent games under 3 hours?
Keith Law: Fewer commercial breaks. No commercial breaks for pitching changes. And raise the bottom of the strike zone.
Keith Law: We’re not getting to 2.5 hour games, though. That’s over.

Jason: When ranking farm systems, do you assign points (e.g., players’ FV, probability, etc.), or is it more of a feel?
Keith Law: It’s feel. Any point system would be arbitrary at its heart.

Jill: Do you own any Bitcoin? Or any crypto? Thoughts on it?
Keith Law: No. I doubt its long-term value, and it is an environmental disaster.

Uli Jon: Forgot to say…congratulations to you and your bride.  Best wishes to the new family.
Keith Law: Thank you. Approaching our one month anniversary (menoversary?) already!

Jimmy: Any good deals to sign up for The Athletic you have in your pocket?  Looking forward to signing up!
Keith Law: theathletic.com/klaw is the current promotion.

Guest: Re Austin Wells- I thought you list a prospect at a position where you think he’ll play but you list him as a catcher despite your (apparently majority view) he can’t catch. Where does he play- RF? 1B?
Keith Law: No, I list guys where they play now. Not sure where he’ll best profile.

Monte: Just to second what you said for Ben, I resisted getting help for depression/anxiety until this past year (I’m 37) for the same reasons (changing my personality, becoming a Xanax Zombie, etc.).  It’s nothing like that.  Outdated stereotypes.  All it does it let my brain quiet down and not freak out about, like, laundry.
Keith Law: Exactly. I could really get anxious about some ridiculous things. Or, frequently, nothing.

Don Gately: Plans to read A Children’s Bible? Loved the voice
Keith Law: I had not heard about this book but it looks interesting.

Tom C: The team hate accusations have been hilarious as usual. Take the Orioles fans – I looked it up, the team has made the playoffs 3 times this century. They have 6 total winning seasons. What have they been so happy about that they get mad because your assessment doesn’t match other reviews?
Keith Law: Also, the expectation that a team that has completely ignored international scouting – you know, where the best player in the NL came from, where the #1 and #3 prospects on my top 100 came from as well as the guys at 16 and 19 and 20 and 24 and 25 and 25 – for a decade, and that has zero international prospects of their own signing in their top 20, would have a top ten system is delusional.

John: Friends in Baltimore are worried the O’s are eventually going to leave, with Nashville as a potential destination. Have you heard these rumors and, if so, any sense of it actually happening?
Keith Law: I’ve never heard that. Only one team has relocated in my lifetime, and that was an extraordinary situation. MLB does not want to allow franchise relocations without an extremely high bar to clear. They just want to use the relocations as a threat.

Tom: Can singer be a good number 3? He’s got the command for it i feel like
Keith Law: He doesn’t have the command and he doesn’t have the third pitch for it.

Appa Yip Yip: Cancel culture isn’t real. Anyone who claims to have been “cancelled” is just experiencing consequences for the first time and they still get to publish self indulgent screeds on the opinion pages of the new york times. The literal opposite of having their voice taken away.
Keith Law: I agree. Bari Weiss got “cancelled,” even though her entire career started with her trying to cancel professors she didn’t like, and she was rewarded with a job at the New York Post. It’s all a giant grift, pandering to the alt-white. And it works.

G: Nick Gonzales’ profile (hitter friendly college environment, small sample strong performance in the cape,) gives me bad Kevin Newman vibes. Is there concern his bat won’t ever play enough for 2b?
Keith Law: Newman was a better runner and played shortstop better in college than Gonzales did. I would say Gonzales shows more with his present hit tool, though.

Michael: Do surprise players that make it big ever make you recalibrate how you look at things?  Being a Brewers fan, it seems like most of our high rated prospects tank, but we get gems out of left field like Brandon Woodruff (though I will admit you were earlier on him than most).
Keith Law: Yes, they do, and I appreciate you remembering I had Woodruff on a top 100 (and I’m still hanging on to Zack Brown, pecan pie, and homemade wine).

Max: Keith, you’ve mentioned “CSA” a couple of times in the chat.  What is that?
Keith Law: Community Supported Agriculture.

addoeh: If you had a wedding reception with a large group of friends/family, what songs would have made your “do not play” list?
Keith Law: Oh, we had one. Maybe I’ll publish our Spotify wedding playlist?

Brian: I havent been able to join in a while and wanted your opinion on something that came up a few months back – there was an inaccurate statistics floating around social media about suicides and a line about the Prevention Hotline. I hate made up stats as much as anyone but at what point does the message (call the Hotline) become greater than the means by which it went viral (the made up stat)?
Keith Law: The message wasn’t call the hotline, though. The message was “end the lockdowns.” And it was manipulative folderol from people whose real interest was not saving lives, but making money.

Eric: Just want to send prayers and love to Pedro Gomez’s family, friends, loved ones and anyone who knew or followed him. What a horrible loss.
Keith Law: Horrible. Absolutely unfathomable. We have lost way too many people just in our little corner of the sports world in the last twelve months.

Cryptologist: How is crypto an environmental disaster?
Keith Law: Mining bitcoin uses 121 TWh per year, almost as much electricity as the entire country of Norway. And it has no societal value at all.

Pat: In regards to international scouting “Where the best player in the NL came from” doesn’t narrow it down enough. Tatis? Soto? Acuna? That, alone, is reason enough to scout internationally, no?
Keith Law: You would think. Of the four fan bases most whiny about my org rankings, three are fans of teams – the White Sox, the Tigers, and the Orioles – who have gotten little to nothing from the international side.

The Sloth: Was there a Phish song in your wedding playlist? and why was it “Waste”?
Keith Law: “Heavy Things” and “Bouncing Around the Room.”
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week, but I will try to do another one next Thursday once the top 20s have all run. Thank you all so much for reading and subscribing and for all of your questions. The AL will run this week and the NL next. Stay safe and please wear your masks – two masks, really – as we’re finally seeing the light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel.

Gods Love Dinosaurs.

Gods Love Dinosaurs is the latest game from the designer of Magic Maze, a Spiel-nominated family game from 2017 that I still have yet to play or acquire (although I’d love to … so many games, so little time). Magic Maze is cooperative, while Gods Love Dinosaurs is competitive, but both games have simple rulesets and mechanics that make both setup and learning fairly quick processes. I’m not sure that GLD follows through on its promise, though – the game might actually be too simple, and I found it hard to get any sort of strategy or plan going as a result.

The premise of the game is that you’re trying to build out an ecosystem, placing one new tile each turn, that has six main species in it, three prey, two predators, and an apex predator in a dinosaur. The prey don’t do much except multiply; the predators in your ecosystem will move in prescribed ways and eat prey in their path, but they must eat something each turn or they’ll “go extinct” (die). Every few turns, the dinosaurs activate, eating everything in their path, predator or prey, but only when a dinosaur eats a predator do you get a bonus egg, which you can keep as a point at game-end or use to hatch another dinosaur to eat more predators and get you more points. The game ends when the tile supply is exhausted.

You draw those ecosystem tiles from a central board that has five columns, with one of each animal species (excluding dinosaurs) underneath each, and then a dinosaur meeple that will move left to right as columns are cleared. You place one tile into each column per player, but don’t refill those vacated spaces immediately. Most tiles show one animal species on them, and when you take that tile, you take a meeple (animeeple?) of that type. When a column is cleared, its associated animal is activated. For prey, that means reproduction: Each prey meeple you have spawns one more prey meeple (one assumes via parthenogenesis) into a neighboring hex as long as it’s of that species’ preferred terrain type. Predators move in a very specific pattern, with each species moving differently, and must eat at least one prey to survive, so placing your tiles and your prey becomes one of the most important decisions – I would argue the only important decision – you’ll make in the game.

The dinosaur activates if that meeple is under a column when it’s cleared, after which it slides to the right to the next column. Each dinosaur may move five hexes, in any pattern, and eats everything in its path, but it must end on a mountain hex – the one on which it started, or a different one. Each prey it eats is merely consumed, its existence a meaningless speck on the fabric of time, while each predator consumed yields an egg. If you have an empty mountain hex when dinosaurs activate, you may pay one egg and place a new dinosaur on that space.

That’s all there is to the game – the process repeats until you’ve run out of tiles, and then everyone adds up their eggs and dinosaurs, one point for each. There’s no player interaction, and in our experience it’s hard to get enough predators on the board to have many (if any) left after you have at least two dinosaurs and activate them. You can’t plan for the long or even medium term here; you just have to plan for the next dinosaur activation. That makes it sound like a kids’ game, and my daughter did like the game more than I did, but I don’t think you could play this with children under 10 or so because of some of the spatial reasoning involved in setting up the next feeding. I might be wrong about that age limit, as the box says ages 8+, but I think I’m also just not very fond of the game and may not be giving it enough credit. I’m still hoping to pick up Magic Maze in the near future, though.

Stick to baseball, 2/6/21.

I had two new posts for subscribers to the Athletic this week: a breakdown of the Nolan Arenado trade, and a look at a dozen prospects who just missed my top 100 ranking. That ranking ran the previous Thursday. I did a video chat via the Athletic’s Twitter account on Tuesday. Org rankings will run on February 10th, and team by team reports begin the next day.

I’ve had two podcasts since my show returned from my holiday break last month, with guests Britt Ghiroli, national baseball writer for the Athletic; and Seattle Mariners prospect Adam Macko, who was born in Slovakia and first learned to play baseball in Bratislava. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify.

Over at Paste, I reviewed the game Cloud City, by one of my favorite designers (Cacao, Gizmos, Silver & Gold), but it was a huge disappointment.

My last edition of my free email newsletter shared some details of my recent nuptials; I’m overdue for another issue because I’ve been writing the team reports and top 20s. You can still buy The Inside Game and Smart Baseball anywhere you buy books; the paperback edition of The Inside Game will be out in April.

And now, the links…

The White Tiger (film).

Aravind Aviga’s first novel, The White Tiger, won the Booker Prize in 2008 for its grim, satirical look at the pernicious effects of caste and economic discrimination in India, just as the country was working to change its global image to that of a more modern society. (As if modern societies were somehow free of this sort of discrimination.) It seemed perfectly suited to an adaptation for the screen but it took over ten years for filming to begin, and the movie finally saw the light of day this winter, appearing on Netflix in January. I loved the book, and the film, which is very faithful to the original text, is also great, with some reservations.

The White Tiger tells the story of Balram, a poor child in the state of Rajasthan, who realizes early on that there’s no escape from the underclass if you’re not out for yourself, and the promise of upward mobility is a fiction for people like him. He manipulates his way into a job as a chauffeur for Ashok, the son of the village’s wealthy landlord, known just as “The Stork.” He gets the job, and tries to ensure his job security, by being obsequious to his bosses no matter the insults or abuse they throw at him, until one night, Ashok’s wife, Pinky, has an accident while driving, and they make Balram take responsibility. After that, the gloves are off, and Balram’s loyalty to himself takes priority over his loyalty to his employers. Yet Balram is no saint, and rationalizes away some of his own worst behaviors even before the accident, arguing that this is India and it’s every man for himself.

Balram is played by Adarsh Gourav in his first film role, and he’s spectacular. Balram narrates the book and the movie, and the film just wouldn’t work without the right actor in that role. The character has show many faces in the story – among them simpering, wounded, and righteously angry – and make it credible that they’d all come from the same human. He’s at his best in the moments when Ashok and his family turn on him and he realizes they view him as somewhere between hired help and farm animal.  Priyanka Chopra helped the film become reality and served as executive producer; she also appears as Pinky, playing her as an Indian woman who grew up in the United States and has more worldly values, including viewing Balram as, at least, an actual person, in contrast to her husband or, worse, her father-in-law. Her character probably has the most depth after Balram’s, but I’ve never found Chopra that convincing as an actress (in English language works, though), and she’s pretty stiff in this role.

The framing device for the film feels somewhat extraneous. As the film opens, we see Balram, grown up, at the head of his own business, as he writes a letter to then-Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, bragging about his life story, praising the Chinese economy, and asking for a meeting. It’s mostly just padding, and it spoils a few plot points if you’re watching carefully. I also would have preferred not to see the successful Balram until he reached that point in the story.

Gourav really does drive the film. Balram is a great character, an antihero inhabiting a story that usually provides us with a simple, easy to cheer for protagonist, like some sort of modern Horatio Alger tale. Instead, Aviga’s story reveals layers of cunning and venality in Balram as a way of indicting the hollowness of India’s economic miracle, and exposing how income inequality might replace the caste system as an obstacle to upward mobility in class or just personal wealth. I suppose that actually makes it a lot like the United States, just not in the way they intended.

Stick to baseball, 1/31/21.

My ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball ran this Thursday for subscribers to the Athletic; the column of guys who just missed the list will run on Monday. Subscribers can also read my breakdown of the Jameson Taillon trade. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday afternoon.

Over at Paste, my review of the game Cloud City, a disappointing game from a designer whose work I really love, is now up.

I joined my friend Eric Longenhagen on the Fangraphs Audio podcast this week to talk top 100s and the process of assembling them, especially in this weird year.

My most recent edition of my free email newsletter shared some details of my recent nuptials, and I’ll send another issue at some point this week. You can still buy The Inside Gameand Smart Baseball anywhere you buy books; the paperback edition of The Inside Game will be out in April.

And now, the links…

One Night in Miami.

One Night in Miami marks the directorial debut of Oscar-winning actress Regina King, and seems set to earn a passel of nominations, including one for King and one for Leslie Odom, Jr., the current favorite to win Best Supporting Actor. It’s originally a play by Kemp Powers, but King expands the zone here to avoid the often claustrophobic sense we can get when scripts move from stage to screen, the result gives the four lead actors room not just to breathe but to fill out their roles as four towering figures in Black history. (It’s available on Amazon Prime.)

The night in question is February 25th, 1964, when Cassius Clay defeated Sonny Liston at the Hampton House in Miami, a significant upset at the time that was followed ten days later by Clay’s announcement that he had joined the Nation of Islam and would thenceforth be known as Muhammad Ali. The script brings together Clay/Ali (Eli Goree), Nation of Islam leader Malcolm X (Kingsley Ben-Adir), singer-songwriter Sam Cooke (Odom Jr.), and NFL star Jim Brown (Aldis Hodge), who had just rushed for a record 1863 yards and would later lead the Browns to the NFL championship that December. The four men engage in a wide-ranging and often contentious conversation about the civil rights struggle, their roles in it, and what responsibilities they might have given their platforms.

The script is talky, like most plays, but with four lead characters and multiple side characters appearing (two played by actors from The Wire), it doesn’t feel so much like you’re watching a play on screen, and King’s direction – particularly the shifting camera angles – gives the audience more the sense of being in the room while the characters are talking. The dialogue is quick, alternating between banter and more serious philosophical commentary (as well as some insults), so the pace only lags when we get one of the four men away from the others. And all four of these men deliver performances that would be strong enough to lead the film if there weren’t three other guys doing the same thing.

Odom, Jr., is masterful as Sam Cooke, the least militant man in the room by a mile, who comes under fire from the other men for their perception that he’s selling out, as an artist and as a Black man, for money and fame, although he has a rejoinder to the argument and the debate circles onward. All four men get their fair share of dialogue, but Malcolm X is probably the next most important character to the plot, and Ben-Adir is just as good as Odom Jr. – perhaps aided by the makeup, hair, and glasses that make him a reasonable likeness for the man he’s portraying, but also because his character might have the most emotional range of the four. Ben-Adir has to give us Malcolm X the confident firebrand, and Malcolm X the ordinary human, with large ambitions and deep self-doubts. And his character is the straw that stirs the drink of this particular conversation (which did really happen, although we don’t know what was discussed).

The four men are certainly more complicated than the script allows, and in some ways it makes Cooke and Brown seem more heroic than they were or are. Cooke had multiple issues with women and was killed in highly dubious circumstances. Brown’s history of violence against women and men was well-documented thirty-plus years ago, before the cultural awareness of domestic violence was a fraction of what it is today. If you knew nothing of Brown before watching One Night in Miami, you’d think he was a pretty cool cat, but this is a decidedly one-sided view of a man with a long history of domestic violence allegations.

King has done something quite marvelous here by making a stage play feel less like a stage play than just about any recent film I’ve seen that made the same shift to the big screen. The film hums along, and there’s so much good dialogue here that I’d like to watch it again to see if I missed anything – and I say that as someone who almost never re-watches films, and certainly not twice in quick succession. Much of the praise for Onie Night in Miami might be because the film and its subject are important and timely, but don’t lose sight of the fact that this is a good story, well-acted and well-told, regardless of the moment in which it appears.

Klawchat 1/28/21.

My ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball is now up for subscribers to the Athletic.

Keith Law: But the names you drop are secondhand. Klawchat.

addoeh: If Heston Kjerstad had a couple rock umlauts in his name, like Motörhead or Sp?n?al Tap, would he rank higher?
Keith Law: I feel like I burned my best Kjerstad joke in the draft writeup last June.

Jackie: As someone who watched Scott Rolen every day for six seasons in St. Louis, I say this:  he was not a Hall of Famer.  You can very easily tell the story of Major League Baseball in the 2000s without mentioning his name.If you have to explain to me why he deserves enshrinement, then he doesn’t.
Keith Law: I checked the rules for the Hall of Fame voting process. It turns out we do not have to explain to you why a player deserves enshrinement for him to be voted in.

Pierce: When the voting results were announced the other night, I said to myself, “Well, if Curt Schilling can keep his mouth/twitter account shut for one year, then he’s in.”  He only missed by 364 days, 23 hours, and 40 minutes.  I have to admit, a perverse part of me is saddened to miss out on his induction speech — it probably wouldn’t have been boring.
Keith Law: I don’t think we need to give any more platforms to white nationalists or insurrectionists right now.

Alex: I’m probably not the only crazy Braves fan on the internet with a Drew Waters question — nevertheless, what would he have to show you with his hit tool in order to merit a top-100 ranking? *If* he started to show you, how much time would it take for you to be convinced that he was for real?
Keith Law: He wasn’t on the top 100 last year and it’s not like we have new data or information to say he’s a different player now than he was in 2019.

Frank: Thank you for the rankings.  Always a must read.  With so much of the MLB season up in the air, what is the outlook for minor league baseball in 2021?  For development of talent alone they cant repeat what they did last year.  What should we expect to see for the minor leagues?  Oh and thanks as always for still hating my team!!!
Keith Law: I have said a few times that MLB may have to subsidize some minor-league operations this year to allow teams to play without fans or with limited attendance just so the prospects have a place to play.

Alex: It seems highly likely that some teams handled the development of talent much better than others during the pandemic especially for players who were not at the alternate site last year.  Do you think we will see that play out over the next 12-18 months and do you have any insight into which teams did more than others for their younger players?
Keith Law: We will probably see some of that this year, but i have no idea who actually handled the layoff better – it’s all just talk for now.

Jackie: Still waiting for Roger Clemens to fail one drug test, ever … but at least Bud Selig, the guy in charge during the “Steroid Era” got inducted into the Hall of Fame a few years ago.  Gotta draw the line somewhere.
Keith Law: Selig and Kuhn are embarrassing selections for the Hall, as are Bill Conlin and Bill Madden (who won the Fink Award), but they were all voted in by groups other than the BBWAA. It’s not quite equivalent. The real hypocrisy will be when writers who refused to vote for Bonds (zero failed tests) or Clemens (also zero failed tests) do vote for David Ortiz (one positive PED test in 2003).

Brian: Keith, thanks for the Top 100.  What does Leody Taveras being the only Ranger in your top 100 say about their system?  Have they just missed on too many of their recent draft picks and trade targets?
Keith Law: Jung was just outside the 100 – I’ll do a just missed column next week – but their biggest problem has been a horrendous run of pitching injuries. Whatever they were doing, and I sort of have an idea, it not only didn’t work, but it probably contributed to the blowouts of at least four of their pitching prospects.

Matt_: I have a question not related to the Top 100 prospects.  For the last few years I have noticed my interest in baseball draining away.  I’m a diehard Cubs fan, and even when the team was awful in 2012-2014 I read fangraphs every day, listened to baseball podcasts all the time including EW and your short-lived ESPN show.  Now I just don’t really engage with baseball content much.  I’d blame the general malaise surrounding the Cubs franchise the last few years, the utterly odious Ricketts family running the team, and what seems like a larger phenomenon that teams don’t really care about winning all that much in a way that makes analysis of transactions almost seem beside-the-point.  As you can imagine this offseason has been extremely demoralizing.  My reaction to the Ricketts fam selling off the team for parts has been less anger than apathy.  What do you recommend I do to reignite my interest in baseball?  Who should I be following that could help spark joy in following the sport?
Keith Law: That’s a tough question to answer without knowing more about what you personally enjoy(ed) about baseball, but I at least get the most joy from watching the best and most entertaining players doing their thing – players who aren’t just talented, but play with enthusiasm, style, panache.

Chris: I saw this question on Reddit a few weeks ago, but with your prospect rankings dropping today, now feels like the time to ask: If every pro baseball player were suddenly entered into a draft today (but their contracts moving forward would stay the same), what round would Franco get drafted? What if contracts didn’t matter?
Keith Law: Franco would probably go in the first round because you know you’re getting all of his prime years (assuming that the six years of team control still existed).

Bob Wagner: Is there a basic reason why MLB has much more labor strife than other professional sports?
Keith Law: MLB’s union is much stronger, and has done a better job representing the interests of its members, than the unions in the NFL or NHL have.

MannyKay: Did Ryan Mountcastle graduate from prospect status or do you not like his profile much?
Keith Law: Still eligible. LF only with no real history of patience or plate discipline before 2020.

Bill G: Keith – No questions, just a comment.  Excellent job as always.  It is also obvious that the listing is abnormal, in that there appears to be a higher percentage of players on the list with MLB experience.  That does contribute to some prospects being left off the top 100.  I would assume your just missed list could be a bit longer!  Thanks again for all the work you put in to create this list.
Keith Law: I have to talk to my editor about it but I had ~14 players on the just missed list right now.

Jake: Spencer Howard dropped quite a bit from last year. Your report focuses on location issues, but doesn’t mention in game velocity loss noted in other places. Do you feel that was mostly just health related? We’re there any signs of that being an issue previously in the minors?
Keith Law: The velocity stuff was a symptom of the shoulder issue that eventually shelved him. I saw him twice at the end of 2019 and he didn’t lose velocity in either of those starts.

Guest: Hi Keith, is there any reason Nick Gonzales was not ranked in your top 100 when players you ranked lower in the 2020 Draft top 50 (Hassell, Kjerstad, Detmers, Crow-Armstrong) were included?
Keith Law: Because they’re not the same list. I don’t just take the draft rankings and plug them into the pro list. I start the top 100 from scratch every year. And in this case there will be more variation from the draft ranking to the pro ones than there would be in other years, since I only saw a half-dozen draft guys before the world ended, and the industry didn’t get a lot of looks at these players either.

John Olerud: Thanks again for the chat. And congratulations to you and your family! I don’t think I’m alone when I say that the world of international signings is still somewhat confusing to me (not to mention cringe-worthy and concerning in many regards). But can you quickly remind us why some teams seem to always sign the elite prospects? And why others never seem to? Specifically, as an Ms fan (sigh) should I be “mad” that they never seem to contribute any of their budget towards signing the elite prospects (especially in recent years when they are trying to rebuild and have less budget going towards their MLB roster)?
Keith Law: That’s a philosophy – the new hard cap on international bonuses means all teams have essentially the same opportunity to sign the elite players, and some teams will want to spend all of it on one guy each year (e.g., Jasson Dominguez) while other teams say those players are so high-risk that it’s better to spread it around.
Keith Law: Also, thank you!

Tim: New to espresso making and got a good quality breville. I’ve found that even while using the same grind/volume settings merely a different type of coffee will drastically change the pressure settings. Do you know why? And where can I get some damn good beans?
Keith Law: Different beans will indeed require different grind settings and even slightly different amounts to get a perfect shot. It’s an iterative process each time I get a new bag. For beans for espresso, I love Re-Animator’s Foundation and Archetype’s Espresso.

Ben: No Adell? I realize his ML.debut didn’t go as planned, but really? Have his tools and ceiling just vanished since this time last year?
Keith Law: Not eligible. I explain the eligibility rules in the intro.

Bobby Higginson: One word to describe the depth of the Tigers farm system.
Keith Law: Top-heavy.

Rob: For the angels, would you rather have odorizzi and quintata, or bauer. I’m trying to rationalize their inaction on above average starters…again.
Keith Law: Signing two second-tier guys may make more sense for them given their current rotation and lack of depth in the upper levels.

Mark Shapiro: Was Groshans left off the list due to injury concerns? If he has a good 2021 would he be back into the top 100?
Keith Law: He’s just barely played – last game action was May of 2019, I believe.
Keith Law: Still a good prospect. Please bear in mind that omitting a prospect from my top 100 is not tantamount to saying that he sucks.

Billy: Really enjoyed the Top 100 this morning!  It seemed like more draft picks jumped right into the list this year.  Is that more about the quality of the last draft, or about you having better more up to date information for many of them?
Keith Law: Lot of graduations this year too. I actually think the number of draft picks going into the top 100 is about average. Have had as many as 15 in past years, I think.

Jon V.: What do you think the strategy is in Cleveland? They appear to be trying to walk a fine line of staying marginally competitive while building for the future.  For example, they have an abundance of prospects at 2B/SS but then get Rosario back in the Lindor deal and resign C Hernandez.
Keith Law: I think the strategy is dictated by ownership refusing to spend, so they have to play this weird game of competing while constantly planning to trade players before they leave as free agents or just get too expensive for the owner’s tastes. I do think that Rosario could move to CF there.

G: Did you have a difficult time weighing reports from instructs vs being able to actually see guys in games? Quinn Priester in particular seemed to be getting almost hyperbolic praise from scouts
Keith Law: I would say that actual games > instructs > alt site. It was just a worse process this year all around and I tried to make the best of what I had.

Mike: I assume the Dodgers end up trading Keibert, but what happens with Will Smith and Diego Cartaya when hes ready? Can either effectively play another position?
Keith Law: Got at least two full years before we come to that and a lot can change before then.
Keith Law: I don’t worry about those situations until they’re imminent. When CJ Abrams is banging on the door in San Diego, they’ll decide if Tatis stays at SS and Abrams goes to 2B/CF, the reverse, or if Abrams becomes a trade piece for another ace or a star at another position.

Steve: Keith: You seem to be higher on Jazz Chisholm more so than other outlets/rankings. Most have seemed to indicate his potential will hinge on his contact ability. What gives you optimism he will be able to do that/reach his ceiling?
Keith Law: Don’t know about other outlets but I see electric bat speed, an inexperienced hitter with an idea at the plate, and a guy still growing into his frame and I think working on coordination. I’ve seen him before and he’s not hacking, or unable to pick up spin, to think of two possible red flags I don’t see here.

John: Apologies if you’ve covered this before.  I’m just starting to grind my own coffee and use a French press.  Do you have any suggestions on how to get started in finding coffee beans locally?  How do you find a good source?
Keith Law: There are some great lists and sites online (sprudge is one), but you can also just google “third wave coffee CITYNAME” and you’ll find some good guides for any decent-sized town in the country. When you’re in one, chat up the barista – tell them what you like in coffee, that you’re using a French press, and listen to recommendations. They will probably also be able to tell you what other roasters they like in town.

Dr Bob: Congratulations on you recent marriage and felicitations to your new bride.
Keith Law: Thank you! For those who missed the news, I got married earlier this month, and wrote about in my free email newsletter.

John: Keith, thanks for the chat. Love your work. Wondering if you could give us some names of players who “just missed” the top 100 list?
Keith Law: Next week, I believe.

Ben: Did Ryan Pepiot come into consideration at all? If not, what were the reports you heard on him?
Keith Law: Not a top 100 consideration but definitely a prospect who’ll be in my Dodgers top 20.

TinCaps: What would keep Gore out of the Padres rotation this season?
Keith Law: They don’t need him right now, at least, and if he has any issues throwing strikes, which he did in 2018 when he had blisters, they’re clearly not going to rush him.

Joe Random: Will there be follow up breakdowns on individual teams/divisions?
Keith Law: In the intro to today’s rankings, I explained that top 20 lists by team would appear in early February, likely the week of Feb 8.

Mike: BlueJays questions – Simon Woods Richardson not on the list due to a higher reliever risk? Groshams drop off because of injury and low activity, do you see him with potential to be an everyday MLB 3B?
Keith Law: Significant reliever risk there. His arm is extremely late relative to his front leg landing.

Miguel: Are teams evaluating prospective catchers knowing that pitch framing eventually will have limited or no value w “robot umps”? How does that change the importance of the catcher moving forward?
Keith Law: That came up a lot the last two winters. There are certainly some catching prospects who’d see their value jump quickly if we get the automated strike zone, like Tampa’s Ronaldo Hernandez.

CP: Kumar Rocker a lock for Pirates at 1? And (I apologize in advance but this is all we have): Who are top contenders for first overall in 2022?
Keith Law: Not a lock at all; I’d bet on the field rather than Rocker. I’ll do a draft ranking towards the end of February but right now my entire focus is on the pro stuff.

Santaspirt: Serious question Keith. Do you want to start a band? It’s like impossible to be in a band and social distance. You record the guitar/vocals, then send to me to record drums. It’ll be like the Postal Service but through the internet.
Keith Law: I’m in. I even got a bass guitar for Christmas so I’m ready.

Guest: Most Braves fans want Ozuna back because he was awesome last year. However, even setting aside the DH/LF thing, his OPS+ was 175 in a short 2020, 149 in 2017. In his other 6 years, he’s averaged a 103.5 OPS+. Seems kind of crazy to assume he’s going to be above average, let alone great. Thoughts?
Keith Law: There were some differences in 2020 that I think can carry over – I’d bet on a 110-120 wRC+ the next couple of years.
Keith Law: I detailed it in my free agent writeup of him.

Jake: Could Wander Franco start on day one of this season? Should he?
Keith Law: Probably could but no reason for him to be in the majors now or for the Rays to rush him.
Keith Law: If we have the minors, let him go smash AA/AAA pitching for a month to make sure he’s good to go.

Jeremy: It seems like everyone agrees we should keep the DH in 2021 and beyond. Are the owners really willing to hurt their own game just for the extra leverage? (rhetorical)
Keith Law: The owners have limited points of leverage and this is one of them. I hate it, but thinking of it as if I were a lawyer on their side of the table, I’d say this is the right negotiating strategy.

Jay: How to you balance injury risk, development path, and speed to majors with two way prospects?  I ask because it seems like guys like McKay, Greene, and even Ohtani, could’ve contributed more WAR to their team by skipping the pitching development part entirely and focusing on the position part.
Keith Law: Disagree on Greene – he was way behind as a hitter vs as a pitcher – and not even clear that’s true of McKay, who at least needed more time as a hitter.

Jay: Of the recently collected prospects by PIT, who’s the most likely to become a star? Or did they just get a bunch of future regulars for a 78 win team 4 years down the road to repeat the process all over again?
Keith Law: Hudson Head, who just missed my top 100.

Kevin: Happy with Biden 2 weeks in (I am ecstatic)?
Keith Law: Yes. Could always ask for more, but this is a good start. He’s going to spend way more time unraveling the mess he inherited than a lot of people want to accept.

BenL: Thanks for all the hard work on the top 100.  Much appreciated, as always.  I know comps for prospects are crappy to do, but I’ll ask one anyways because you hate my team… or something… Am I wrong to hope that Dylan Carlson ends up being Miami-Christian Yelich? Can play all 3 spots, CF while younger and will age into a corner, doubles high OBP guy.
Keith Law: who could come into power in his mid- to late 20s? Sure, I’m in.

Robert: I just re-listened to a White Sox podcast you were on when they signed Luis Robert.  You took some criticism at the time for being low on him.  At the time you indicated that you heard concerns on the swing, but that he had elite foot speed and bat speed and that if everything “clicked” the White Sox could have a superstar.  That projection seems to have held up pretty well.
Keith Law: Thank you. There was some talk about Robert being the best prospect in the world when he signed, but you should automatically be skeptical when you hear hype like that on a player who’s never played pro ball and has only been scouted in workouts. Robert is a hell of an athlete but you saw last year that he has real vulnerabilities at the plate he has to address.

Marc (DC): What do you think about the future of the sport where there are 200+ FAs and less than a month before pitchers and catchers report? Also, without telling teams if there will be a universal DH, again, with less than a month to go?
Keith Law: We’re heading for labor strife. I hope it’s not an actual work stoppage, but this CBA negotiation will be the most acrimonious in 20 years.

Mntwins21: How close was Larnach to being in your top 100?
Keith Law: Not very.

Marc (DC): How many more wins do you think Bauer would mean for a team?
Keith Law: I’d say about 4. BTW, I know there was some contention about the article Ken Rosenthal wrote about Bauer’s free agency and his behavior on social media. I thought Bauer did not come off particularly well in there; he gave a statement that he’s “not a bully,” but Rosenthal gave direct evidence of Bauer bullying a college student on Twitter, and there are many other such stories out there in the open, which all says to me that Bauer isn’t taking responsibility for his own actions. The easiest thing in the world for him would have been to say he was sorry, and seeks to learn from his experiences so he doesn’t repeat them. Instead he’s acting like they never happened.

Frank: Oneil Cruz dropped out of your rankings- is any of that due to his unknown legal status or merely because there were more deserving players?
Keith Law: More deserving players. As far as I know his legal status is clear.

JeremyK: How does age factor into your prospect rankings? Is it basically a depreciation on your projected upside?
Keith Law: Yes. Arozarena being in the top 50 despite being age 26 is a reflection of just how good he was in a tiny sample, and the possibility that he hits for ++ power on a regular basis now.

Carrett Grochet: Assuming no Crochet on your rankings is because you see him as a reliever (so do I), but were you as surprised as I was to see him pumping 102 and looking super sharp in MLB last year?
Keith Law: No, not surprised – he’d hit 100 in college, at least, and the White Sox used him very gently. He hasn’t shown us an above-average secondary pitch yet and has some health issues in his history.

Tom: Is it fair to say that if anyone is withholding a vote for Schilling for a non-baseball reason is due to “character” and not “politics” – as if some belief in trickle-down economics is what the voters detest?
Keith Law: When someone says Schilling is being punished for his “political views” or for voting for Trump, don’t even engage. It’s a bad faith argument.

Appa Yip Yip: If a player struggles to catch up to velocity, is that something they can work on or is it an immutable characteristic?
Keith Law: If it’s a slow bat, it’s probably not fixable. If it’s bad timing, or a noisy approach, that you might be able to fix.

Andy: How do you think teams will approach workloads for pitching prospects this year (assuming we have a relatively complete MILB season)?
Keith Law: It’ll depend on how much those guys were able to throw at alt sites/instructs. Some guys did log 50+ innings that won’t show up on Fangraphs, but do count in terms of building up arm strength.

addoeh: I know teams are claiming the loss of gate revenues last year is impacting teams payroll this year.  But there could be something else going on.  Teams could be hoarding cash because there may not be a ’22 season.  It doesn’t fill me with a lot of hope.
Keith Law: That’s a perfectly reasonable concern.

Michael: When working with Schilling did you realize he’s this batshit crazy? It’s one thing to be “conservative” but to support an insurrection, openly racist, etc???
Keith Law: I never had any issues with Schilling while we worked together. In his last year at ESPN he began sharing offensive content on his Facebook page, including the Islamophobic and transphobic memes that led to his dismissal, but he never brought that into the office, so to speak. If he always held those views, he kept them to himself.

Chris: How would you describe the difference between linear and rotational hitting? Is there a player that comes to mind for each type?
Keith Law: There may be exceptions but pretty much any guy who hits for power has a rotational swing – rotating his hips, using his lower half, getting loft in the swing finish (for an optimal launch angle). Linear hitters often make a lot of contact but not much hard contact. Any guy you think of as a slap hitter is probably ‘linear,’ hitting mostly with his hands and not using his hips or legs.

Andy: I see Detroit, Boston, and the White Sox all trying their 1B prospects at 3B. Given there’s a very low chance any of the three stick, is this worthwhile? What about preparing for 3B defensively translates into improved 1B defense?
Keith Law: I don’t see any harm in trying it. I might even argue it would encourage those players to work on their conditioning so they stay more agile for workouts at third, even if that’s not their ultimate position.

JR: What, if anything, should the Mets have done in their vetting of Jared Porter? I highly doubt this was a one time incident from Porter, but also not sure what they could’ve done differently , or what they should do differently going forward.
Keith Law: I liked Hannah Keyser’s question – did they ever ask a woman in the industry what her opinion of Porter was? The answer was no. Maybe that should be an essential part of the interviewing process for everyone.

Andy: Which players outside of the top 25 would you say are most likely to top your list in the next year or two?
Keith Law: Orelvis Martinez, Jasson Dominguez, Robert Hassell could all make huge leaps.

KC: If Gilbert comes out this year with an above-average change, does that change his outlook to more TOR, or would it not enough to move him off MOR?
Keith Law: Hard to see him as a #1, but I could see him having a long career as a 2/3 where one day you look up and say, holy shit, Logan Gilbert has 35 WAR?

Nolan: I’m curious about Chris Paddack. If you talk to your average Padre fan, they think he should just be released, but based on the fact that he’s still in silky PJs I have to assume the front office has faith? I refuse to believe the Rays/Cubs didn’t ask for him in their trades.
Keith Law: Oh I’d hang on to him for sure.

JG: If Royce Lewis doesn’t pan out at SS and moves to CF, Twins have to trade Buxton right?
Keith Law: That could be.

DJ: Thoughts on this GameStop/Reddit situation?
Keith Law: I don’t really know enough details about it to have a worthwhile opinion, other than that short-selling has a pretty long and controversial history and I’m not sorry to see shorts get squeezed. Profiting off someone else’s misery like that isn’t ethical and isn’t necessary to the proper functioning of a marketplace.

Pat D: If there is any kind of limitation to this year’s minor league season, in the sense of limited games played at any level, is there any chance this manifests at the Major League level at some point?  Like is there some time within the next few years where there’s a clear decline in talent and/or quality of play because of missed reps?
Keith Law: I think so. Especially hitters – pitchers will probably mostly be OK, but a lot of hitters’ developments will be slowed by a second lost season.

chauncey: who do you think will be voted in the hall next year?
Keith Law: My guess is Ortiz gets in, and maybe Rolen, but that’s it, and there’s a chance nobody gets in at all.

j: I know you didn’t like Fetch The Bolt Cutters, but can you appreciate the artistic value? Or do you think it just sucks?
Keith Law: I thought it was incredibly boring. I have no idea why it was so acclaimed. “Sucks” is a strong word especially for a work of art, but I can say I don’t see the artistic value you cite.

JR: Will you be writing a report on Matz trade? If not, thoughts?
Keith Law: No because despite all the tweets about “three prospects” going to the Mets, it was a replacement-level major leaguer and two guys who weren’t on my Jays top 20.

Chris: If Rolen is a HoF player, what criteria is he meeting that Murphy and McGriff aren’t?
Keith Law: Elite defense at a skill position.

Evan: Julio Rodriguez is not a top 20 prospect. Discuss.
Keith Law: That is a statement of fact, so I’m not sure what there is to discuss.
Keith Law: He was not on my top 20.

Keith: Keith – there are now gluten free oreos.  I believe you’ve posted something about avoiding gluten before, and you’re a known oreo lover.  Will you try the gluten free ones, or are you an oreo purist?
Keith Law: I can’t get over the texture of gluten-free versions of regular cookies.

addoeh: Should players accept that the luxury tax is going to act like a hard cap and work towards getting a hard floor?
Keith Law: Or they should push back on the luxury tax.

Key Flaw: I believe you said you had an Ooni outdoor pizza oven. They seem awesome, but how much do you use it? It seems like you have to heat it up and use a lot of propane or wood pellets for just a couple pizzas, or does it turn on and heat up quickly? I want to justify purchasing to my wife one and need your help!
Keith Law: Heats quickly, would take me a year to go through a bag of pellets most likely, but cools off quickly so if you’re trying to make a lot of pizzas or roast something (which would be odd, since it’s a small oven and gets up to 800+), you would go through a lot more. A pizza cooks in 90 seconds in mine.

Rodney: Triston McKenzie is obviously a pretty unique talent and physical profile. Your analysis of his ability is awesome to read – is there anything you could expand on about any concerns that exist related to his velocity drop, or his ability to be a top-of-the-rotation starter?
Keith Law: I feel like his velocity drops were a bit overplayed – for one thing, this was such an abnormal year, and the fact that he just stayed healthy through it is a win for him, and for another, he can pitch at 90-92 and still be really, really good.
Keith Law: At some point he’s going to put on some weight.

Brodie Van Wagenen: Is there anything I can do to not fail up?
Keith Law: I had that exact thought yesterday.

John: Any quick thoughts on Jack Kochanowicz and Gunnar Henderson? Thanks in advance!
Keith Law: Both will appear in their respective team reports in two weeks. I have a lot more prospect content coming, so please be patient with the roll-out schedule.

Joe: I know it’s said every year…but I’m shocked that there are still so many Vizquel voters who don’t vote for Rolen and/or Jones. Vizquel was a great (but not quite elite) defender and was an average hitter at his absolute best. Rolen and Jones actually were elite defenders at their position and would have fringe HOF arguments even if you just looked at their hitting.
Keith Law: Baseball writers love and overrate Vizquel as much as they love and overrate Bruce Springsteen.
Keith Law: Vizquel’s defense was not that good and we know this because the data tell us so. There are otherwise intelligent writers who just won’t hear it because they think they know what they saw. Now, this probably becomes immaterial in light of the very serious allegations of domestic violence against him, but before that, I think he was on a path to get in.

Dallas: Jays signed Marcus Semien to play 2B. Keith, I don’t think the Jays think Biggio is as good as you do. Wait, hold on a second …
Keith Law: I was actually surprised they didn’t sign him for SS with Bichette going to 2B. That would be a hell of a defensive middle infield.

xxx(yyy): from a travel standpoint, where have you considered honeymooning? not asking for specific places unless you want to share but regions/countries/events?
Keith Law: We have a plan but are waiting until it’s truly safe to take a long flight somewhere.

Turner: Thank you for the rankings and the chat. I’m probably overthinking this, but when you describe a player as having good hand acceleration what are you referring to exactly?
Keith Law: That’s for hitters and I’m talking about how fast they can get the bat moving forward from their loaded position.

Will: Keith, love the chats.  Do you see Deivi Garcia as a top of the rotation SP or will he eventually be relegated to high leverage bullpen because of his frame?
Keith Law: Not a top of the rotation guy – can’t imagine him going 200+ innings and maintaining those K and BB numbers.

Mike: Due to no MiLB last year, was it harder to do your list? Especially since you couldn’t see guys who were at teams complexes, but didn’t pitch in the majors.
Keith Law: I answered that in the intro too.

Chris P: Nick Madrigal had 35 hits and only 3 of those were for extra bases (all doubles). I know this is the type of guy you said he would be, but at what average/obp would say that he needs to stay at to be a viable big leaguer? Or is the total lack of power just too strong?
Keith Law: If he really hits .340, sure, that’s valuable, although even that couldn’t get him more than a .376 OBP. But how does this guy become a star? I don’t see it, and I don’t think he hits .340 forever, especially if pitchers realize they can pitch him anywhere without worry about giving up a homer.

barry: It seemed like there were a bunch of older players on your list this year – ages 24+. Is this due to the minors not having a season last year or am I just wrong about prospect ages? Also, do you have an age cut off to be considered a prospect? Thanks.
Keith Law: You are correct. Arozarena and Puk might be the two oldest players ever to make my top 100.

Mike: Surprised to see Julio Rodriguez so low on your list (I know you pay no mind, but other publications have him higher, some have him above Kelenic) when I know you value potential a little higher than most. Is the hit tool and eye that concerning with him?
Keith Law: I don’t think there is any way to justify Julio over Kelenic. Julio has real hit tool concerns, and he’s a corner guy all the way.

Brad: I just wanted to thank you for an amazing job and wish congratulations to you on your nuptials. Your writing is enjoyed and appreciated in my household.
Keith Law: Thank you, to all of you who offered best wishes and congratulations. We couldn’t be happier.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week but I will chat again once the team reports start running, which is tentatively scheduled for 2/9. I also joined Eric Longenhagen on the Fangraphs Audio podcast, running Friday 1/29. Thank you all for the kind words and for reading. Stay safe.

Boys State.

One casualty of the new streaming wars is that some good films are going to go unseen by a wide swath of the audience, and may miss out on awards consideration for the same reason. The documentary Boys State looks like one of those, as Apple bought its rights after it won the top documentary prize at Sundance, so now it’s on Apple TV+ and unavailable any other way. I only know about it because Will and Tim discussed it on the Grierson & Leitch podcast, and both had it on their top 25 for the year (Will had it at #3), but right now it’s one of the ten best movies I’ve seen from the 2020 slate.

Boys State takes its name from a nationwide series of events run by the American Legion – yes, there is also a separate slate of Girls States – where high school students from around each of the 50 states gather for a long weekend, split into two fictional parties, and then hold elections for major state offices all the way up to Governor. The filmmakers followed the kids at Boys State in Texas in 2018, focusing on four boys in particular who went into the event hoping to run for prominent roles, from party leaders to Governors, while also getting solid representation of ethnic backgrounds and political views.

It’s hardly surprising that we hear a lot of reactionary political statements from these boys as they give speeches early in the film to vie for various positions in their two parties’ apparatuses, notably hardline opposition to gun control and misogynistic views against any sort of abortion rights, with a dash of homophobia and some generally anti-government sentiments thrown in for added flavor. (I do wonder how different that last bit might be whenever they next hold Boys State events, in the wake of the terror attack on the Capitol earlier this month.) What is far more interesting, however, is the extent to which at least some of those comments are performative, or just plain Machiavellian, as one participant who seems to be a hardliner says in a one-on-one moment with the filmmakers that he doesn’t believe these things – he just sees Boys State as a game, and voicing those views is a path to winning.

The four main stars of the film all turn out to be extremely compelling for their presences on camera and for the diversity of their backstories. Steven Garza, who runs for Governor, is the son of a woman who came to the U.S. from Mexico as an undocumented immigrant, and makes his mark on the conference with his compassion and his willingness to find common ground with potential voters through individual discussions. René Otero grabs your attention early in the film with a powerful speech that helps become chairman of one of the two parties, coming across as progressive compared to the room but also managing to sound that way without committing himself too strongly to specific policy ideas. He’s Black, and Garza is Latino, which is notable given how overwhelmingly white the entire student body at Boys State is – the filmmakers clearly made a choice here to follow some nonwhite students. The other two boys at the center of the film are Ben Feinstein, a double-amputee due to childhood meningitis, and seeks to lead the opposite party from Otero; and Robert MacDougall, a good likeness for a young Blake Jenner, and more of what I expected to see from the film – a good ol’ boy, an athlete, and someone who says all the right-wing things.

Where it goes from there surprised me, as not every kid is quite what they seem to be at first, various conflicts arise between and within the two parties, and we see some real growth from a few of the boys even though the event takes place in just a few days. There’s also some organic drama in the run-up to the final elections, including some underhanded tricks on social media, and the ending is far more emotional than I anticipated given the film’s subject. There’s some fat the filmmakers could have trimmed, like the glimpses we get of the event’s talent show, time that could have gone to showing more of the conference’s press corps, who seem to play a more important role than the film lets us see. I might have a little more of a connection to Boys State because I attended some similar events in high school (but not Boys State specifically) and helped run a Model Congress event while I was in college, but Boys State is so well-crafted, and so generous towards its subjects, that I think it’ll appeal to anyone who is able to see it.