I’ve got a new mock draft up for subscribers to the Athletic, a ranking of the top 100 prospects in the draft class with scouting reports on each, and another file with scouting reports on 30+ additional players in this draft. I’ll post a final mock on Saturday morning, a Futures Game recap that night, and then draft analysis starting Sunday night.

Keith Law: And other times I feel like I should go. Klawchat.

Carl: Do you think more teams will do deals like the Braves just made with the Royals to get a high draft pick?
Keith Law: Most teams value the picks more highly than KC seems to have valued this one. I think there are more buyers than sellers, so to speak. That also tells me that MLB needs to wake up and make all picks tradeable – even this minor trade got quite a bit of attention.

Josh Smith: What should do the Mets do with Francisco Alvarez considering their lack of production at catcher and DH? What is the ETA for him?
Keith Law: I don’t know about his defense being ready for the majors … my take from seeing him a good bit last year and talking to scouts this year is that it’s probably not, and that’s before you consider who he might be catching for the Mets. But the bat would be valuable right now if you could live with him developing on defense.

Deke: I got a promoted ad on Facebook today that said if you took Tylenol multiple times during pregnancy and your child has autism, you may be entitled to compensation. Sooooo, new nonsense conspiracy theory just dropped.
Keith Law: Facebook’s “efforts” to fight disinformation are just laughable. We need to accept they don’t care and deal with them accordingly.
Keith Law: (I just finished reading Dan Pfeiffer’s Battling the Big Lie, and he makes some rather pointed arguments about Facebook being worse than pretty much any other site for this.)

TomBruno23: I have asked about Christian Little before because he is a local kid and I follow his career…put up a 6.94 ERA in 11 2/3 with Cotuit and is transferring to LSU under Wes Johnson. What is a reasonable expectation for him 2023 and going forward?
Keith Law: Yep, for folks who don’t know, Little matriculated early at Vanderbilt, even though he might have been a first-round pick out of HS. By forgoing the draft, he gave up a shot at probably $2-3 million and the benefit of professional coaching. He hasn’t been anywhere near expectations since going to school. Maybe the new program turns it around, but it’s not like Vandy is some slouch at developing pitching, either. I don’t rank guys a year out for the draft but if he were in this year’s class he wouldn’t be on my top 100.

John: What is your overall assessment of Elly De LA Cruz? Considering it’s likely his biggest shortcoming, how much improvement would you like to see with his plate discipline to where it wouldn’t be a major concern?
Keith Law: He’s a top 10 prospect in baseball right now. Probably the best pure athlete in the minors. Has risk, for sure, but the upside is absurd.

Deke: The winner of the 2024 presidential election is…
Keith Law: TBD.

John: If you could use the information you now know, and go back and re-rank your pre-season top 10, how different would it look?
Keith Law: Pro prospects? I don’t think there’s a huge difference in the order of a top 10 – people get way too caught up in specific rankings, and don’t spend enough time reading what I write about each player. The only one I don’t feel great about now is Torkelson. I should have listened to my instincts more there and had him lower, out of the top 10.

MJ: Thoughts on Max Castillo? Has he shown enough to make you think he can be at least a 4/5 starter type?
Keith Law: No chance. Below average fastball and bad delivery for a starter.

Dave: Is the answer to the question who will be the first one to the majors from this years draft anyone other than Kumar Rocker or he is a certainty to be the first one.  Does he make it this year?
Keith Law: I think so – the team that takes him will likely be the one that views him as a potential reliever for September.

Paul: Any reason to think the same thing could happen to Rocker again this year after a team looks at his medical records? I’m still wondering what could have been so bad that the Mets didn’t want anything to do with him. (I’d assume even if it were something required TJ surgery they’d still have signed him.)
Keith Law: I agree that if it were just TJ they would have worked it out – they took JT Ginn after TJ and paid him. Rocker also had a minor shoulder operation last fall, so that’s also an indicator that it wasn’t just some minor elbow thing. But I think someone will bite this time around because everyone has more information than they did last year.

Mason: The A’s have gambled on high risk, high reward talents in recent years (Beck, Murray) b/c they can’t afford top end talents in the open market. By that logic, would Prielipp at #19 make sense? Thanks, Keith.
Keith Law: Haven’t heard them with him at all, but yes, your logic is sound. They almost always do it with hitters, rather than pitchers. Puk is the last pitcher they took in the first round at all.

Chris: What are your thoughts on Julio Rodriguez?  It looks like he’s going to be a super star, but maybe some of this is unsustainable.
Keith Law: Superstar. Stays in CF, which I did not believe would be the case out of last season. He’s gotten faster, which is very unusual, and done great work to avoid becoming too big, something I did worry about with his frame.

Ben: If Dylan Crews were in this draft, around what pick would he go?
Keith Law: The corner bats are mostly in the 10-25 range. He’d be near the top of that.

JT: Is it fair for me to think of the Montoyo firing as “you can’t fire the players”? I know my fellow Blue Jays fans had some quibbles with his in-game management style, but by all accounts, he seemed very well respected and capable.
Keith Law: I thought Kaitlyn McGrath’s piece was very good, but also made the team’s reasons for firing Montoyo seem pretty shallow. Maybe something else will become public eventually but my take was yours – this was a “we can’t fire the players” firing.

Bucco Brad: As a pirates fan when should I expect this team to compete for a playoff berth again?
Keith Law: I think you’re 3+ years from that.

Nate: Keith, what are your thoughts on Dodgers SP prospect Gavin Stone. He recently catapulted to mid 50s on BAs updated top 100. Just curious if he pops up as much for you. thanks!
Keith Law: He’s a great story – signed under slot from Central Arkansas in the pandemic year – and definitely a prospect but there’s too much reliever risk to have him in the middle of a top 100.

Mike: How do you explain the success of the M’s and O’s? Legit or SSS?
Keith Law: Winning streaks are nothing but SSS. They have no predictive value.

Kyle: Sam Horn going to Mizzou?
Keith Law: I assume so. I wrote about him in the extra capsules page linked up top. He’s already in Columbia for football stuff.

Miguel: Are you as high on Gunnar Henderson as others seem to be?
Keith Law: I don’t know what that means exactly. I think he’s a top 15 prospect in baseball if you view him as a 3b, where he’s a ++ glove.

Stephen: As a Royals fan I’m pretty embarrassed today. How do you think the org is viewed by the rest of the league after this? I know the news  is less than 24 hours old, but curious if you’ve heard anything.
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything, but I don’t understand people blaming the org for the idiocy of the players.

Drewy: Bo Naylor appears to have figured it out. Is he back on your radar, having fallen off your top 100 list in recent editions?
Keith Law: Yes.

Booby M: Who do you see the Yankees connected with at pick 25?
Keith Law: See my mock draft linked up top.

Appa Yip Yip: What’s your opinion on Spencer Horwitz? MLB bat, or fringey reliever trade bait?
Keith Law: The latter. Can’t hit LHP, not enough thump for a no-position platoon guy.

Brett: Last year we had some surprises in the top 10, do you see that happening again? And who could potentially sneak in the top 10 that’s not being mocked there?
Keith Law: Yes. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Justin Crawford, Brandon Barriera, or Dylan Lesko end up in the top 10 with under-slot deals.

Zac: What is Cam Collier’s floor in the draft? On the athletic you wrote his ceiling but I didn’t see what his floor would be?
Keith Law: I don’t put floors for every player – I have to hear that such-and-such a team would not pass on a player. In the unlikely event he gets to 11, I believe the Mets would just take him.

Slurpie: I thought Johan Rojas’ promotion was too aggressive considering his performance, but all the numbers seem to be really good so far at the new level. Do you think he’s back on a good trajectory?
Keith Law: Rojas’ batted ball data was better than his results in high A, but also this is a really small sample size and Reading (AA) is the best hitters’ park in the Eastern League.

Moe Mentum: Do you have a favorite college stadium to scout players? How about a favorite college town on your scouting list?
Keith Law: Nashville and Louisville, if you’re considering cities. If you’re talking actual college towns, I love Charlottesville and Athens.

Darren: Should I stop kidding myself that Will Benson has figured something out and may still have a chance to be a MLB option?
Keith Law: It might just be the switch to a different baseball in AAA. A lot of hitters seem to have “figured something out” by moving to triple A this year and I don’t know how we could easily tell which is which.

Moe Mentum: Have you explored/read any of the winners (or finalists) of the Thurber Prize for American Humor? Would any have been worthy of study in your favorite undergraduate course “Comedy and the Novel” (though the Prize wasn’t established until after you graduated)?
Keith Law: That’s all nonfiction, I believe. That class I always talk about was just fiction.

Jon: Quinn Priester’s curveball looked pretty damn pretty in his last outing. Slower start to him for the season, but does he still have #2/3 starter upside?
Keith Law: Yes, he had an oblique strain, I believe, nothing that would change his upside.

Guest: What are your thoughts on Trey Faltine? I assume he’s expected to be drafted and sign this year but is his bat going to be good enough in pro ball?
Keith Law: He struck out 104 times this spring. I don’t think I’d even draft him this year, not as a junior who I presume would want to be paid enough to get him to forgo his senior year.

Joshua: You’ve stated the Nats don’t really keep their draft intentions too hidden, and you have them taking Kevin Parada. To the best of your knowledge is there a realistic player they would take over him or who they would take if Parada is off the board? Thanks.
Keith Law: Elijah Green isn’t out of the question but right now I think he goes ahead of them.

Alex: Does the ability to get paid for NIL have any impact on mid to late round Juniors from signing and instead going back to school?
Keith Law: Don’t know of that specifically but there’s a rumor Paxton Kling pulled his name out of the draft to go to LSU in part because he has some NIL money lined up. Good for him, if so.

Mark: Best board game you’ve played in the past 6 months?
Keith Law: Three Sisters.
Keith Law: New game, i assume you mean.

Michael: When do we get to see your midseason top-50? One of the things I look forward to most every year – thanks for all your work!
Keith Law: After the draft, so I can include those guys.

David: Who are some HS players you could see making it to the Cubs at pick 47, that would be solid value?
Keith Law: No idea, sorry. That’s way too far down the draft for a prediction, and I don’t want to just give you a WAG.

Tom: i’m excited to see your thoughts on Dustin Saenz and Jeremy de la rosa now that they’re in wilmington
Keith Law: Trust me, I’m excited they’re here. The Blue Rocks lineup was … not an area of strength.

John B: Thank you for all the great info.  I wanted to make sure I am clear on something you said on a recent Nats podcast.  Paraphrasing here, but you made it sound like if Jones, Holliday, and Parada are gone that they would take a college player with a lower ceiling.  I am curious who to look for in that situation.  Neto?  Cross?  Jung?  Also would not signing the pick and getting #6 in 23 be worth considering?  Thanks.
Keith Law: I don’t recall saying that. Also, not signing the pick is never worth considering. People suggest it every year and it is always a terrible idea. It’s a full year of wasted value. If it happens organically, like the Mets/Rocker, fine, but you never do this by choice. Unless you want the next scouting director to get the extra pick!

Aaron: What are some reasonable expectations for Zach Neto and Brooks Lee? Worried the Cubs are again going hit tool + makeup over upside
Keith Law: Regular at shortstop and above-average regular at 2b or 3b, respectively. Full scouting reports available in the top 100 link at the top of the chat.

T: Where would you rank Kevin Parada if at the end of the day if his arm is not good enough to be a 1st division catcher? Or better said, Kevin Parada’s bat at 1B/DH?
Keith Law: Arm isn’t going to keep anyone from being a catcher any more. There isn’t enough baserunning for that. And I don’t think Parada has to move off C for his glove.

Chad: They don’t have the #1 pick to have the huge bonus $ this year, but do you think the Bucs will try to use the draft this weekend in similar ways to last year? Would Termarr Johnson be a guy that might take a cut to help out going over slot with the next couple picks?
Keith Law: I don’t know bonus expectations for Termarr (or most players, really). The Pirates do have an extra pick at 36, though, and could get creative with that – going under slot at 4 to go over for some HS player who gets to the later pick. My guess is several teams go after that type of player in the 31-39 range.

David: Hi Keith, Thanks for all the great draft work. I’ve been impressed with Oneil Cruz’s defense at short stop, although my expectations were low. Do you think he could stay there for at least a few years before moving to the outfield?
Keith Law: They may choose to leave him there but I think he’s best suited to another position.

Walshy: Aaron Ashby ever a guy that will get to 5 or 6 innings consistently or better in smaller spurts? The stuff and K rates are absurd.
Keith Law: don’t think he’ll have the command for that.

Grover: I recall you weren’t bullish on Julio Urias being able to come back after his shoulder injury (I wasn’t either) but was this basically an outlier/one in a million type of thing or are we reaching a point with those types of shoulder injuries that they are more recoverable in the same way we started to see with elbow injuries in the last decade or so?
Keith Law: Extreme outlier – I think he’s the only pitcher ever to come back from that injury/surgery and hold up as a starter.
Keith Law: Which is good news, but one exception does not disprove the rule.

Clay, Rutherford: Have you had a chance to see Myrtle Beach SS Kevin Made in action? 19 years old, has hit 9 HR this year in an offensively repressed league, is walking about five times as often as he did last year, and carries a .975 fielding percentage at SS (I know, not a great measure of defensive prowess, but still).
Keith Law: Saw him in the spring. The boosted walk rate is great news and a surprise, as I thought he was a good bit behind even his teammates in that regard. That club is pretty loaded with hitting prospects.

Tom: Ok ok i’m prepared to get denied here, but can we at least say Nats Luis Garcia is a regular?
Keith Law: Based on what? Sub 0 WAR again this year, 2 BB and 30 K so far in the majors.

Tim: Does Strider’s slider play up because of how good his fastball is? His slider is running a pretty high whiff rate despite reports of it being a below average pitch
Keith Law: Yes, the fastball has exceptional vertical movement. Great piece by Justin Choi on Fangraphs today about it.

ProjectHanyo: So with the Paxton Kling news that he will skip the draft and go to LSU, I saw a comment that one should go to colleges like Vandy or LSU than pro ball because of the minor league life is horrible and college life is great and among your peers, and MLB training staffs are 1/100th of the value of the training staffs of LSU or Vandy’s. I facepalmed so hard, surely MLB teams can’t be that incompetent not to mention the other stuff
Keith Law: College is right for some guys. It’s not right for everyone. That’s certainly not true about training staffs, but I think there is – or was, with this silly realignment happening – an argument that the life of a college player is easier than the life of a minor league player when it comes to travel.

Frank: When Henry Davis was selected last year there was some question if he could stick behind the plate.  Is there any question now that he will be a full time catcher or does that question still remain?
Keith Law: I never had that question about his glove, so of course I’m saying no, there’s no question now.

Guest: Is there any defense for Shane McClanahan not being the ASG starter?
Keith Law: That the all-star game is a silly marketing event and we shouldn’t care about it? OK fine there’s no defense.

Ian: Is Enrique Bradfield Jr. as good as he is fun to watch? Not sure how he profiles as a pro.
Keith Law: Yes. He’ll be in the 1-1 discussion next year, I think.

Rob: Thanks for answering my question re Blaze Jordan on The Athletic. Although he was known for power as a prep you mentioned we’re not seeing it now. I would have thought this (presumed) emphasis on contact would be part of the development process and that not showing power wouldn’t be a concern. Am I misunderstanding? Was there a swing change to emphasize contact that makes his power inaccessible or is there still a chance all of his skills consolidate?
Keith Law: I’ve seen him twice now. That swing isn’t going to produce game power.

Larry: Is Jobe going to be an ace? How is his stuff looking in the limited innings
Keith Law: It’s been down. Multiple scouts have told me more mid-rotation guy, like 3rd/4th starter, based on what they’ve seen this year. Could always come back.

Jeff: Should Orioles look to still sell Santander or Mancini?  Stay the course?  Not sure they should be buyers.
Keith Law: They shouldn’t let a winning streak divert them from their long-term plan. They should sell opportunistically.
Keith Law: That’s all for this chat, as I have a radio hit right now. I’ll do a Q&A over at The Athletic on Sunday afternoon and again at some point on Monday once the draft has begun. Thank you as always for all of your questions!

Starting today at 2 pm ET. Subscribers to the Athletic can read my latest minor-league scouting post, on Kyle Harrison, Jay Groome, and others; and my second mock for the upcoming MLB draft.

Keith Law: It’s the sound of a brand new day. Klawchat.

Aaron C.: Off the top of your head, is this year’s midseason top 50 going to feature the most new names due to graduations in the history of Klaw? Celebrators of chaos unite! *cackles*
Keith Law: Yes, certainly seems that way. I’ll do this a few days after the draft, as I did last year, so I can include some of those players as well. Looking back at my preseason top 100 I think 8 of the top 9 will be off the midseason list (where I just go by whether they’re in the majors, not rookie status as I do in the offseason). So the top of the midseason list will be especially fun and different.

Jason S: Who’s the more promising breakout player Ceddanne Rafaela or Ezequiel Tovar?
Keith Law: Tovar. Better chance for + defensive value. Rafaela is a lot smaller, too.

Erica: Couldn’t someone just put Ben Joyce in their big league bullpen right now?
Keith Law: They could, but I don’t think he’d do very well. He walked 10% of hitters in college this year. That’s going to be much higher even in AA, let alone the majors.

Mike W: Gavin Stone not slowing down in AA, has he passed up Bobby Miller?
Keith Law: Stone’s a good prospect but he’s not close to Miller. That’s stat-line scouting. Miller was in my preseason top 50 because he has a very good chance to be not just a starter, but a good one.

Bret S: I appreciate all of the book reviews you do. Maybe a dumb question but how do you finish books you don’t like? I have so many I want to read I bail out the minute I realize I don’t like the one I’m reading.
Keith Law: Sometimes I don’t, especially if the book is long. I’m not pushing myself to finish books I read for pleasure. I do read a few books a year for completist purposes, like the Pulitzer and Hugo winners, but otherwise I don’t see the reason to force myself to read something I don’t love. I gave up on How late it was, how late, even though I’m sort of working my way through the Booker winners, because it was so hard to read and unpleasant too. (A book can be hard to read, but enjoyable, like some Faulkner.)

Thomas T: Hi Keith;
Thoughts on either Wingspan expansions? I’ve followed many of your recommendations over the years (and have been glad I did). I love Wingspan for its short gameplay, so I’m wondering if the added time isn’t really going to bring enough value to take it from a <90 min game to closer to 2 hours.
Keith Law: I’ve actually never played the expansions – they just announced a third one this week, Asia – mostly because I don’t play many expansions to any games. I own so many games, and play so many new games each year for reviews, that I play very few games enough to want to alter the experience with an expansion. It has to really add something good to game play, like Carcassonne’s Traders & Builders does, or add better components, like Ticket to Ride’s 1910 expansion. But a lot of expansions just add complexity or extend game time, and that appeals to me less. I do have one expansion I want to play & review, for Paris: La Cité de la Lumière, but haven’t gotten to it yet.

Mike: Last week, You and dvr discussed the rebuilding teams but left out one clear one – the Nats. Is it just because they are so early on it it/whats your take on their current state?
Keith Law: I don’t think we tried to cover every single rebuilding team – that would have taken more than the time we have for the show. They are early in their rebuild, but I also think when they get closer the (current) owners are likely to spend big in free agency to supplement, which isn’t true for all rebuilding clubs.

David: Hi Keith, Does the pitching Elijah Green faced at IMG compare at all to what Cam Collier saw in junior college? You had previously mentioned Green faced perhaps the toughest high school pitching in the country this year (please correct me if I’m wrong). Thanks!
Keith Law: I think that the second part about Green is fair, but no high school pitching is going to be close to what Collier saw facing Florida jucos.

Mike: Welcome back! Any reason the Yankees don’t drop Joey Gallo now, even if they have to eat his salary? And, do you know why he has been so historically, abysmally bad with the Yankees?
Keith Law: Seems very overreactive. Also, there’s no question another team would take him, even if it’s just to take the rest of the contract.

Casey: Masyn Winn seemed like a high risk/reward draft pick in 2020 that has done well this season…do you think he could be an above average regular at SS?
Keith Law: Yes. Huge credit to the Cards for that draft – Walker and Winn were both very high risk/high reward guys, for different reasons, and so far both have performed at or near the top end of expectations. It’s like betting eight the hard way, twice, and hitting it both times. (Not really because that is a stupid bet in craps, but I hope you get the general idea.)

PghJake: Will Ben Cherrington have the draft pool to pull off this year what he did last year?
Keith Law: They only have one extra pick this year, and they pick 4th rather than 1st. That’s a lot less money in their pool.

Casey: As a Cardinals fan I keep reading about the success of Gordon Graceffo this season. What’s the word on him within the industry?
Keith Law: I had a note on him in late March in a scouting post and what I wrote then still stands. He’s a legitimate mid-rotation starter prospect.

Erik: Can Christopher Morel be a legitimate starting outfielder? Or do you get Junior Lake vibes?
Keith Law: There’s a whole lot in between those two outcomes. I think he’s in the middle of that. Probably not a regular.

Casey: How has Tommy Edman turned into this? I remember you saying you thought wouldn’t be much more than a backup infielder but now he leads the league in WAR…what changed with him?
Keith Law: Multiple things have changed – he’s a pretty different player now, and while I would bet the under on him repeating this in the second half, he’s become such a valuable defensive player that his floor is way higher. I don’t think he was ever this good a defender in the minors. He also makes more hard contact than I expected, or than he did as a prospect. Right now he’d probably be the first guy on my “guys I was wrong about” list.

Alex: When do you see Jud Fabian getting selected in the draft?  In other words, did he make the right choice by not signing with the Red Sox last year?
Keith Law: I don’t think he goes any higher and probably ends up with less money than what he turned down. He’s the same guy he was a year ago, except now he’s almost 22. There’s just way too much swing and miss here, with no improvement over two seasons in his main areas of weakness. You can read more about him on my Big Board.

Ryan: Do you think the Dbacks will promote Carroll this year? The lineup could really use a boost
Keith Law: That’s the wrong reason to promote your best prospect, though. You promote him because he’s ready, and needs the bigger challenge.

Billy: The teams who passed on Lawlar because he was “old” for the class are probably kicking themselves right now.
Keith Law: Did anyone really do that? I’m sure it was a small factor in some models, but I don’t think any team flat-out passed on him for that reason. He was old for the class, though – no scare quotes needed. 19 is old for a HS senior.

Aaron C.: Restaurant you’re most looking forward to hitting up during All Star weekend in LA?
Keith Law: I’m afraid I won’t have much time for food tourism on that trip. Might be more breakfast & lunch and then I improvise for dinners with the Futures Game on Saturday evening (followed by a lot of writing) and then the draft on Sunday night (followed by more writing and sleep).

Aaron C.: May I selfishly request any modicum of positive prospect-related news you might have from the A’s farm system for those of us who are still inexplicably A’s fans?
Keith Law: Yes. Zack Gelof is both justifying my choice to rank him in the “just missed” column and making me wish I’d gone even further. (He’s out now with a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, though.)

Jesse B: How concerned are you about Noelvi Marte’s season?
Keith Law: I’m not.

Finney: Mark Appel finally made it to the majors, and I couldn’t be happier for him. What is the main reason he never became the top-of-the-rotation arm that he once seemed destined to be? Was the quality of his stuff eroded by injuries and/or misuse? Did he simply fail to develop past what he was in college? Or did everyone overestimate how good he was in the first place?
Keith Law: Everyone has an explanation on that one, and I think it was a combination of many things. One is that his fastball played well below its velocity in pro ball. I would bet that in the trackman era, he doesn’t go 1-1, because advanced data is not as kind to his stuff as the radar gun was.
Keith Law: I do also think pitching in Lancaster, which was a ridiculous hitters’ park that I often compared to playing baseball on the moon, really hurt him as a pitcher, because of the way it amplified any mistakes and imposed a greater cost on his stuff than any other park might have. I’m so glad that park is gone.

Charlotte: If you had to take one going forward out of Adley, Witt and JRodriguez…who ya got? Still small enough sample that you would default to preseason rankings?
Keith Law: I might go J-Rod given youth and now that he’s demonstrated 80 speed across the board. DVR and I discussed on him on last week’s podcast and why I should/would have ranked him higher if I’d seen that before.

Anthony: Is the hype on Jackson Chourio justified?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s really good.

David: Keith, if you had to rank in likelihood for Cubs at 7, between Lee, Parada, Termarr, and Collier…. What order do you have?
Keith Law: I’ll have another mock in less than two weeks.

Phil: Thoughts on Bo Naylor’s season and is this the type of offense you thought you’d see from him when he first came out?
Keith Law: Yes but bear in mind that he was repeating AA. Still optimistic. Also I’d like to point out that my habit of calling breakouts a year early may now extend to Josh Naylor, who is doing this year what I said he’d do last year.

JR: Is all this college realignment good, bad or neutral for college baseball? I wish college football and mens basketball (the $ makers) would form their own league and leave the rest of the non-money making sports in their geographical footprints
Keith Law: I think it’s bad for college baseball because of the huge travel that might be imposed on players if we lose all of the geographical ties on the conferences. One point college coaches like to make to recruits is that going pro means lots of times sitting on buses for road trips. I’d rather do that than fly cross-country and try to play while jet-lagged, and also not getting paid.

Jack: Any chance Colson Montgomery has played his way into the top 100?
Keith Law: I just saw him two nights ago, blog post to come later this week, but the short answer is no.

Mike: Chances that the “franchises heretofore known as the Oakland A’s and Tampa Bay Rays” actually relocate? And, where?
Keith Law: In what timeframe?

Rick: Has your long-term outlook of Detmers changed after his initial MLB time? On a side note, thanks for all your non baseball posts and links.
Keith Law: I’m a little less optimistic but maybe like 10% so.

Craig: You recently teased a possible visit to London (and/or elsewhere in the UK).  Are you able to expand on that possibility?
Keith Law: The store event I was working on fell through, so while I’ll be there in August, I don’t currently have a place for some sort of meet-up. I’m still open to it and will see what else I can do, though. More than enough of you said you’d be game for it.

Kahlil (Jupiter, FL): What happens to my hit tool? Why am I striking out so much? Can I develop a two strike approach?
Keith Law: One of the bigger and more shocking disappointments of the season.

Freddie Freeman: How tired are you of hearing about how my agent screwed me and how much I miss Atlanta?
Keith Law: I really do not have any desire to get involved in that storyline at all.

Eric: Do you garden? If so, how much? What do you grow? Is it therapeutic for you?
Keith Law: I do! We grew radishes this year, which were done by early June; and arugula and English peas, which are finishing up now. We have tomatoes, cucumbers, beets, bell peppers, and possibly one watermelon plant all still going, plus some herbs in the garden and in pots. This was our first year doing it in the new yard, so some of this was an experiment to see what would work in that space, but everything has grown beyond our hopes. I don’t know if I’d say it’s therapeutic but I love the reward of eating what we grow. I’m less interested in things we can’t eat.
Keith Law: I always want to have thyme and rosemary plants going. I use those herbs enough and fresh is so much better than dried that they’re essential IMO. And we have several basil plants which I need to be more diligent about harvesting and pruning (you want to remove the buds before flowers appear, as that will make the leaves more bitter).

JK: Did you watch House of Gucci just to make fun of Leto? Worth it, but it wasn’t even the best Scott-Driver movie last year.
Keith Law: No, we actually wanted to watch it. I was surprised by how boring it was. I knew the accents would be an issue, and I am not a Leto fan at all, but the movie just sucked. All that money and time and effort for such a big nothing? How do you turn a story with multiple scandals into such a dull script?

Jay: How much has Gunnar Henderson improved his stock this year? His season, at his age, has been incredible.
Keith Law: I’ll put it this way … he’ll figure quite prominently in the midseason rankings update.

Justin: Does trading Bryan Reynolds make sense for the Pirates right now? Do you think they’re at all close to winning if they keep him or do they stand to gain more by obtaining the haul they would get in a trade?
Keith Law: I think they have to trade him now – both from a rebuilding perspective and that of his likely value going forward.

Kevin: Hi Keith, love your whole deal.  The White Sox are in shambles at the major league and their minors offer little immediate help.  Should they, in the up coming draft, select a college player (who they can rush to the majors to avoid signing a FA) or draft a HS player (they trade in the offseason to avoid  spending in FA)
Keith Law: Best player available. I don’t like the “rush a guy to the majors” idea – I think that has failed more often than people realize when they make such a pick.
Keith Law: And if the general sense that the gap between the minors and the majors right now is bigger than ever is true, doesn’t that make that idea – that we can take, say, a great college reliever and race him to the majors – even less plausible?

Jon: Still playing guitar?
Keith Law: Yep, as much as I can, at least. Finding time is always tricky but I do sneak some in every day.

Caleb: How excited should O’s fans be about Coby Mayo hitting AA already? Also, Is Gunnar Henderson a GUY?
Keith Law: I didn’t understand that promotion, although the others all made sense. He wasn’t actually playing that well until the last 7-8 games, and then went on a little tear, but it obscured some of the approach issues I’d seen earlier in the year. Not saying he can’t figure it out, but I don’t think the move up was justified by the production or how he looked doing it.

Anonymous: You’ve commented previously on how you really do not like Twenty-One Pilots. Can you explain further what you don’t like about their music?
Keith Law: Literally everything.

Appa Yip Yip: You are standing in front of a treasure chest. Do you immediately open it for the sweet, sweet loot, or do you hit it with your sword on the off chance it’s a mimic that will eat you?
Keith Law: Can I cast detect traps?

Russ: Is your reading done on planes, or at home on the porch?  At night, or whenever you get a free period (what is the minimum time you need to set aside to set down and read?)
Keith Law: On planes, in the evening before bed, waiting in line or other places, and yes sometimes on the porch. I’ll read 2 pages if I have the time. If I’m at a game and am not sitting with anyone I know, which is more common with so many teams cutting pro scouts the last few years, I’ll read between innings and for pitching changes. It might be 2 pages each time but I might get through 20-30 pages over the course of a game.

Aaron: Has Michael Harris II’s hot, albeit unsustainable, start changed his floor/ceiling at all for you?
Keith Law: No.

Chris: Keith, you scouted Ceddanne Rafaela against one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and Marcelo Mayer the day after he came back from a wrist injury, and was immediately shut down with the same injury. Why do you hate my team?
Keith Law: It is rather unfortunate. Fortunately I know I’ll see those guys again by virtue of geography.

Pat: Baltimore is one of the most reliant teams on its draft models, right? I am surprised Collier isn’t linked to them more. Seems like he would do very, very well for model-heavy teams given his age
Keith Law: Same. But we also don’t really know what their plan is.

Scott (NYC): I recall you were high on Dom Smith. Any thoughts on his struggles? Does he just need consistent playing time? Stop putting him in the outfield? It seems pretty certain Mets are going to trade him and he will revert to 2020 form
Keith Law: Agreed. Needs regular playing time at a position he can play, and probably to get the hell away from a front office that has clearly had no use for him for over a year now.

Randall: What are your thoughts on the timing of the draft this year?
Keith Law: I hate it. The draft should be this week.

Sam: Where are teams with Kumar Rocker?  I assume the medical issue still exists.  Do you think some team is willing to take him in the first round?
Keith Law: We don’t know what his medicals say and as far as I know no team has seen anything other than the Mets.

Dallas: Bryce Harper currently is the vote leader in NL DH for the ASG. 2nd place is William Contreras. Harper will win but won’t play. Will Contreras be the replacement starter or do you think they treat it like past games and choose the best hitter to be the replacement starting DH?
Keith Law: I actually didn’t know Harper was leading that position in voting. I just pay no attention to AS voting.

Dallas: Vaun Brown just got promoted to Hi-A after crushing the Lo-A Cal League and crushing his college league when a 5th year senior. He’s old. Need to wait and see until 2A, correct?
Keith Law: Yes. He’s 24. Same for Niko Kavadas in the Sox system – just had an incredible June, but he’s 23.5 and most of that came in low A.

Dave: Is Joey Bart going to be anything more than an all glove no hit player?  The strikeout rate is unbelievably high, probably even higher than what most expected.
Keith Law: now I just hear Jimmy McMillan saying “the strikeout rate is too damn high!”

Brittney: Wainwright HOF?
Keith Law: I don’t see it.

Greg: Any quick thoughts on your trip to see Oscar Colas and Colson Montgomery?  No way Colas sticks as a CF right?
Keith Law: Blog post later this week. Also saw Griff McGarry last night, and will go back again for some of those other Jersey Shore pitchers (Abel, Painter, Brown).

Eric: Re: Gardening, we just closed on a 5-acre property, so excited to really be able to build a big garden. Love eating what we grow, and agree, we are not about growing things we can’t use.
Keith Law: I don’t think we could ever be those people who grow a huge part of the produce they eat – we have the space, but not the time – but now that we’ve shown a lot of plants will grow very well in that space, we’re going to be more aggressive about it next year.

Portofbrandon: I really enjoy the Stick to Baseball posts, and it would be a shame if you couldn’t keep doing them
Keith Law: They’re still going. Already started this week’s.

addoeh: How was teaching your oldest how to drive?
Keith Law: She learned most of it in school – I can’t take any credit here. She’ll just practice with me. Driver’s ed was so much better anyway; as any parents of teens know, they learn and accept criticism much better from anyone who isn’t a parent.

Chris: Could Jacob berry fall to the 20s or is he a lock before then?
Keith Law: I don’t think he gets near that far. Heard Rockies as a floor.

America: remember when we a functioning democracy? me neither …
Keith Law: We were more of one not that long ago.

Salty: Keith – have not seen you mention Black Map in your new music write-ups – didn’t check out the new album yet, or not feeling it?
Keith Law: I think I included one of their singles on a playlist in maybe March? New playlist in the next few days too.

Pat: Is there too much good TV right now? I find I have to keep a list of what I want to watch because at every given time there are 5-8 shows that are really good. Invariably, i catch half of them, forgot about/delay the other half & maybe never catch up.
Keith Law: We feel like we’re hopelessly behind. We did finally start Abbott Elementary last night and watched 5 episodes (of 13) … it’s fantastic. It’s really just Parks & Recreation set in a Philly elementary school with a majority POC cast, but I’m on this show’s wavelength and already love the character development. Also the principal had one line that made me laugh so hard we had to pause the show.

Tom: Noone from AA Harrisburg stuck out to you on your recent trip to see them vs altoona?
Keith Law: Correct.

Mahatma Kane Jeeves: Late to the chat, so apologies if you’ve answered this. But do you like how Tink Hence is being managed so far in 2022? I know he’s a short & skinny guy (and the small sample results have certainly been fun) but it’s late June and he’s throwing 3 innings over and over….
Keith Law: Didn’t he miss almost all of last year too?

Jim: How much of the Phillies’ failure to produce good young talent is bad timing (having 1-1 in a historically bad draft), bad development (screwing up Kingery) or bad luck (Haseley). Still hopeful for Bohm and Stott and the Jersey Shore arms.
Keith Law: I think there was a combination of bad choices in the draft + poor development under the last regime. It’s going to take a little time to turn that player development ship around, but I believe Mattingly/Fuld will get them there.

Dan: Like, you seem to legitimately believe that there is a female soul wandering through the ether that actually, accidentally found a host in a male human forming in utero. That is the basis of all “trans rights” ideas. Buying into this just obliterates my perception of you as a man of science.
Keith Law: This is just wrong. There’s quite a bit of research on the biological basis for gender identity; you are either unfamiliar with it, or choosing to ignore it. It took me a few seconds to find this research paper on the subject: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7139786/
Keith Law: And here’s another: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21334362/

There’s plenty of publicly available research on this. Mischaracterizing it as woo, as you have, is quite a tell.

Milana and Stevie: Best baseball movie, to you? We just saw Bull Durham again, and Tim Robbins is a real hoot, but that CAN’T be the best baseball movie ever…can it? (We like Long Gone, with Bill Peterson & Ginny Madsen the best.)
Keith Law: Sugar. And so few people have seen it

Drew (mpls): Any new 2 person games you’ve tried lately? Love Lost Cities and Jaipur, both from your recommendations. Thanks!
Keith Law: No but I’ve got two in the queue.

Jay: Funny or Sad?  Jays meet the Red Sox in the post season and the deciding game comes down to the Red Sox Hauck-less bullpen blowing a late lead.
Keith Law: Am I wrong to think that there has been way too little criticism of Houck for this? Not only is he wrong on the science, but the choice is selfish for him as a teammate and as a member of his community. There’s no defense.

Jibraun: Re best baseball movie, Sugar is fantastic, but may I suggest Everybody Wants Some by Richard Linklater?
Keith Law: I love that movie. Excellent choice.
Keith Law: Time to go record the next podcast with DVR, so I have to wrap this up. Thanks so much for all of your questions. Stay tuned for more minor league scouting blogs and two more mock drafts over the next 2 1/2 weeks as we head to draft day, plus a Futures Game recap the night of the game. Stay safe!