Stock-market forecasting.

Interesting Wall St. Journal article today on why most stock-market forecasts are wrong. The whole article is a good read, but here’s the part that surprised me:

History shows that the vast majority of the time, the stock market does next to nothing. Then, when no one expects it, the market delivers a giant gain or loss — and promptly lapses back into its usual stupor. Javier Estrada, a finance professor at IESE Business School in Barcelona, Spain, has studied the daily returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to 1900. I asked him to extend his research through the end of 2008. Prof. Estrada found that if you took away the 10 best days, two-thirds of the cumulative gains produced by the Dow over the past 109 years would disappear. Conversely, had you sidestepped the market’s 10 worst days, you would have tripled the actual return of the Dow.

I wonder what bearing this has on the debate over whether or not share prices follow a random walk.

Security for tots.

The Playmobil Security Check Point is funny enough – yes, it’s just what it sounds like – but the reviews are priceless. My personal favorite, a two-star writeup:

My family was planning a vacation to Europe, so I purchased this item to teach my twins about what to expect at the airport and hopefully, alleviate some of their anxiety. We also downloaded the actual TSA security checklist from the American Airlines website and then proceeded with our demonstration. Well, first we had to round up a Barbie and a few Bratz dolls to play the other family members, so that cost us a few extra bucks at the Dollar General and it is aggravating that the manufacturer did not make this product “family-friendly.” Of course, since the playmobil Dad could not remove his shoes or other clothing items, unlike the Barbie, the playmobil security agent became suspicious and after waving her wand wildy a few dozen times, called her supervisor to wisk the Dad into a special body-cavity search room, (which incidentally led to quite an embarasing and interesting discussion with my twin daughters about personal hygiene and a slight adjustment to the rules we had them memorize about touching by strangers). But worst of all, since the suitcase did not actually open, the baggage inspector made a call to the FBI and ATF bomb squads which then segregated the family’s suitcase (which btw was the only suitcase they provided for our educational family experience) and according to the advanced TSA regulations, had to blow it up, (since they could not otherwise mutilate the luggage, break off the locks and put one of those nice little advisory stickers on it), which we had to simulate out in the backyard with a few M-80s and other fireworks. The girls started crying. They became so hysterical by the whole experience that we could not even get them in the car when the time came to actually take our trip, and so we had to cancel the whole thing at the last minute, losing over $7,000 in airfare and hotel charges that we could not recoup do to the last minute cancellations. We’ve now spent an additional $3,000 to pay for the girls therapy and medication over the past year since this incident occurred, and the psychologists have told us that this will affect them for life, so much for their college fund and our retirement. Then, to top it all off, when we tried to use to playmobil phone to call the company to ask for reimbursement, as you might expect, of course the damn thing didn’t even work; neither did our efforts to e-mail them using the computer screen on the baggage checkpoint; and our real-life efforts to contact them to obtain re-imbursement have also likewise been ignored. Worse yet, we had the product tested and found out that it was positive for both lead paint and toxic chemicals, having been manufactured in China by workers holding formerly American jobs, so now we all have cancer and have been given only another year or so to live. My advice – educating your kids about airport security with this toy may actually be more harmful to them than just packing them in the damn luggage with some bottled water & hoping they survive. 🙂

Top 100 prospects.

Just about everything is up. The top 100 ranking starts here with 1-25. I also ranked the top ten by position, the top 5-10 by organization (top 10 prospects for the top 10 orgs, top 5 for everyone else), and quick notes on ten who just missed the list.

I’ll be chatting in English at 1 pm EST and in Spanish at 4 pm EST. You can also chat with Matt Wieters at 4 pm EST.

UPDATE: Chat transcripts – English and Spanish.

Farm system rankings for 2009.

The first article in the top prospects series is up on ESPN.com; I think the top 10 are free and the remainder is Insider, although I’m not certain.

Tomorrow’s content includes the global top 100, with capsules on each player (averaging 190 words per player); the top 5-10 prospects in each organization; and the top 10 by position. I’ll also be chatting in English at 1 pm EST and in Spanish on ESPNDeportes.com at 4 pm EST.

Tuesday links.

I’m not huge on brownies with nuts, but this “luxury brownies” recipe, from a woman who sells them in a London market stall, looks amazing. (Hat tip to Chocolate & Zucchini.)

It Is About the Money, Stupid’s series on “Commissioner for a day” ideas starts with one from yours truly about territorial rights.

I’m mildly hooked on Mental Floss quizzes, and today’s is appropriate: Can you name all of the U.S. Presidents in under eight minutes?

My friends at River Ave Blues join the chorus of proposals to alter free agent compensation.

I weep for our language, part 7.

Courtesy of Kevin at Fan Interference, we have BC basketball coach Al Skinner:

“I tried to pre-warn them . . . We were capable of being this team and capable of being another team.”

As Kevin points out, a warning that isn’t pre- is kind of useless. Reminds me of the old Bill Cosby routine about the “dip” signs in California. I’m thinking this is roughly as embarrassing as BC’s athletic director throwing a tantrum over his football coach interviewing for a better, higher-paying job.

Reader blogs.

So someone pointed out that my blogroll didn’t make it through the database export/import, which means the list of reader blogs is kaput. If you’re a regular reader/commenter and your blog was listed in my old blogroll – or should be in the new one – drop a comment here. As long as your content isn’t obscene or highly objectionable, I’ll add it.

It’s bad enough…

…to get your tongue stuck to a metal light pole.

It’s worse when the incident makes the news.

Chat today.

Klawchat today at 1 pm EST.

The Mambo Kings Play Songs of Suck.

I don’t think I have completed and hated a book as thoroughly as I hated Oscar Hijuelos’ Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, The Mambo Kings Play Songs of Love. I can hardly decide where to start in listing what I disliked.

    • The two main characters. The Mambo Kings are two brothers who emigrate from Cuba to the United States. Nestor, by far the more interesting of the two characters, is either depressed or just lovelorn, and is dead before the book’s midpoint. Cesar, the older brother, is dissolute, obsessed with his penis, drunk nearly all of the time, and depressing as hell as he approaches his own death.
      The sex. I don’t mind if there’s sex in a novel as long as it’s well-written and not gratuitous, but this entire book was full of passages that would have won the Bad Sex in Fiction award had it existed at the time of the book’s publication. The novel must hold the record for the most uses of the word “pubic” in any publication that isn’t sold with a black wrapper around it. Hijuelous treats us to images like “the head of his penis weeping semen tears;” a woman’s “bad habit of yanking hard on his quivering testicles at the moment of his climax;” almost clinical descriptions of straight-up, oral, and anal sex; and – most disturbing of all – a reference to Cesar thinking about being in his mother’s womb while he performs oral sex on women.
      The story – or lack thereof. This isn’t about the rise and fall of the brothers’ band, called the Mambo Kings. When Nestor dies, the band dies; the book is almost two separate novels cobbled together, although neither would have been much better had it stood alone. It’s not about Cesar’s descent into a physical condition that matches his broken emotional state, or his lifelong struggle to overcome the abuse he suffered as a child at his father’s hands. It’s not about Nestor’s depression or melancholy, since he’s dead before we get much insight into that. It’s about Cesar whoring and drinking and eating his way through middle age into an early death.
  • The best explanation for this awful mess that I could conceive is that Hijuelos was trying to offer some sort of meditation on mortality, how potentially short our lives are (Nestor) or how we might look back when at death’s door and consider and reconsider our actions (Cesar). What we get, instead, is a catalog of Cesar’s sexual exploits and regular references to his acid reflux. Hijuelos even manages to make food boring, with lists of foods at the huge meals the Cuban brothers would eat but none of the descriptive language needed to bring those foods to life – although, given the crude and methodical descriptions Hijuelos gives us of sex acts, perhaps we should be thankful that he didn’t ruin food for his readers as well.

    I have actually seen the 1992 adaptation, The Mambo Kings, starring a then-unknown-in-America Antonio Banderas as Nestor, but the film was very loosely based on the book, and the interpretation of what comes after Nestor’s death bears little relation to Hijuelos’ text. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

    Next up: Fantasia: An Algerian Cavalcade, by Assia Djebar, named one of the twelve best African books of the twentieth century by the Zimbabwe International Book Fair in 2001.