→ February 11, 2023
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Stick to baseball, 2/11/23.

My top 100 prospects and team reports have been running for the last 12 days, finishing up today with the AL West team reports/top 20s. You can see the index of everything I’ve written here, which includes direct links to the reports for every team, the top 100, the farm system rankings, my chats on that site, and more.

My latest review for Paste actually went up last week, and even I missed it in all the hubbub. I reviewed the board game It’s a Wonderful Kingdom, the two-person variant of the popular game It’s a Wonderful World, but I have to say I think the original is a better game, even for two people. It’s a bit like 7 Wonders meets Century Spice Road, but with a little more to it than that might imply. You can buy It’s a Wonderful World here on amazon if you’re intrigued.

My free email newsletter has been almost-weekly this year, and I’ll send out the next iteration this weekend. I skipped my podcast this week because I was writing so much. I think it’ll be back next week. Maybe. Life is full of uncertainties.

And now, the links…

  • The Toronto Star looks at the fall of Jamie Salé into conspiracy theory and denialism. The 2002 Olympic gold medalist, previously best known as one of the two skaters originally cheated out of the gold by corrupt judges, has become a COVID and vaccine denialist – and, of course, now she’s trying to profit off these false views.
  • Intelligencer looks at the increasing “junkification” of Amazon, where legitimate products are getting harder to find as the company tries to muscle its way into more spaces. My outsider’s take: this is what happens when a company needs unbridled growth to prop up a stock price (or a billionaire owner’s wealth).
  • The BBC profiles the French author Colette, calling her “the most beloved French writer of all time,” although in the English-speaking world she’s probably best known for writing the novel Gigi that became a hit musical and film.
  • Is disdain for the less educated the “last acceptable prejudice,” as Michael Sandel writes in the New York Times? He also argues that it’s a problem for the Democrats, and a perception they need to shed.
  • Iowa Republicans introduced a bill that would expand child labor in the state, including jobs previously deemed too dangerous for kids like those in mining, logging, and animal slaughterhouses.
  • We’re seeing fewer big scientific breakthroughs, with the pace dropping steadily for over three-quarters of a century. Part of it is that breakthroughs are harder to come by as the low-hanging fruit is long picked, and part is that nations don’t invest in basic science research without promise of immediate financial returns the way they used to.
  • This blog post arguing that Dominion killed replayability in board games makes a great point – the need to constantly buy expansions to is a great business model for a very small number of games/publishers but not sustainable for the industry as a whole.
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→ February 10, 2023
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Triangle of Sadness.

Triangle of Sadness was a surprise nominee for Best Picture this year, also taking home nods for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay. It’s the first film for writer/director Ruben Östlund since 2017’s The Square, and like that film, it’s a disjointed story that starts out with great ambitions and ends up succeeding most when it focuses on its simpler themes. (You can rent it on amazon, iTunes, etc.)

The triangle of the title refers to the film’s tripartite structure, which I would summarize as “fine, bad, good,” in that order. We start out by following two models, Yaya (Charlbi Dean, who died just before the film premiered) and Carl (Harris Dickinson), who are in a relationship but fight over seemingly trivial matters like who’s paying for the check in a restaurant – she makes far more money than he does, but gender roles dictate that he should pay. She’s also a social media influencer, which leads to an invitation for the two of them to go on a cruise on a luxury yacht, where they meet a bunch of fairly horrible rich people and mostly ignore the obsequious crew, who are themselves divided into the mostly white upstairs staff and the mostly nonwhite cleaning and cooking staff. The ship sinks, and a group of survivors wash up on an island where they have to find a way to survive, but it turns out only Abigail (Dolly De Leon), who barely appeared in the film’s first two parts, has any skills pertinent to staying alive.

The 2022 film and TV cycle was full of “rich people are terrible” themes, from White Lotus to Tár to The Menu, and Triangle of Sadness offers nothing new in this vein, which ultimately is the movie’s undoing. Yaya is vapid and a shallow stereotype of the Instagram model/influencer, right down to having Carl photograph her about to take a bite of a pasta dish that she won’t eat because she’s “gluten intolerant.” The rich people they meet on the boat barely need names, as they don’t even rise to the level of caricatures, with just one of them (Winston) serving some real function beyond being wealthy and horrible, and in that case it’s for a pretty good joke that has a strong payoff later in the segment. It’s only when we get to part three, on the island, that any characters get real development and show some depth, including Abigail, and the script finally makes good use of its ire towards the idle rich. It takes way too long to get to that point, however, and Östlund could have just made the whole movie out of that and given us a better end product.

That middle section, though, is a mess, figuratively and literally – I asked a friend if he’d seen the movie, and he hadn’t, but he asked if I meant the film where everyone throws up on a boat. There’s about ten minutes of people suffering from food poisoning, projectile vomiting around the dining room and in the halls, which is later followed by the ship’s waste disposal system backing up, just in case you weren’t already sufficiently grossed out. It’s a two-minute gag that goes on forever, exacerbated by a dreadful bit where the drunk captain (Woody Harrelson, mostly wasted here) engages in a superficial debate between capitalism and communism with a wealthy Russian oligarch who made his money in fertilizer (or, as he says, “shit”) over the ship’s PA system. It’s unfunny, and consists more of the two men, both thoroughly inebriated, spouting aphorisms from other writers, reminiscent of college students arguing over these subjects because they took one class on Marx and are now experts in the field.

The third section redeems the film to some extent, and ends with multiple points of ambiguity that work extremely well, although it just shows how much better Triangle of Sadness could have been. The Square was also full of interesting ideas, perhaps more so, but also ended with enough ambiguity to soften some of the too on-the-nose aspects of the satire within, right down to the question of whether we should feel any sympathy for the hapless yet arrogant and entitled main character. Here, Östlund’s targets are too easy, and because they’re all stranded on this island – how this is possible, or they could be stuck there for what seems like weeks, when most of these same people were still using their cell phones right when the ship sank – we have some sympathy for all of the characters, since we’re never hoping for any of them to die, or even really to suffer any further. (Not that any of that would be a good thing, either.) There’s a clear intent here to tell us that rich people are useless to society, and while I’m not exactly disagreeing with the point, the final third drifts away from it enough to undermine the first two sections, especially since it’s by far the funniest and best crafted of the film’s parts.

How this film ended up with a Best Picture nomination with a ten-minute scene of emesis and diarrhea is beyond me; I wonder if voters thought this made the film avant-garde. It’s not half as clever as it thinks it is, unfortunately, and other than De Leon, who earned a Golden Globe nomination for her performance, none of the actors has much to work with. Aftersun and Decision to Leave come to mind as two films that the Academy’s voters were at least aware of, having given the former’s Paul Mescal a Best Actor nod and putting the latter on the shortlist for Best International Feature Film, that were both worlds better than this mess. If the final third existed just as a short film, I’d probably extol its merits, and praise the way the ending is open to multiple interpretations, too. Instead it’s just a tantalizing glimpse at what this film might have been if anyone had reined Östlund in. However, I do look forward to his next film, The Trapezoid of Mild Irritation.

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→ February 7, 2023
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Music update, January 2023.

Sorry this is a bit late, but I’ve been writing a few thousand words a day for my regular job. January turned out to be a fertile month for new single and even album releases, more so than usual (I think), so I’ve got a little catching up to do. If you can’t see the widget below, you can access this month’s Spotify playlist here.

Young Fathers – Rice. Heavy Heavy just dropped on Friday, so I haven’t had a chance to dive into it yet, but the reviews are ebullient, and I’ve loved two of the three lead singles. I don’t even know how you can categorize their music, other than that it’s mad and often brilliant.

Belle and Sebastian – I Don’t Know What You See in Me. A Scottish bent to the playlist, at least at the start. Belle & Sebastian returned with their second album inside of a year with Late Developers, which is poppier than last year’s A Bit of Previous and more consistently upbeat. I also loved “So in the Moment” and nearly put that on the playlist instead.

Måneskin feat. Tom Morello – Gossip. I know Måneskin aren’t very admired by critics, but this track, with Morello on guitar, is an absolute banger and was stuck in my head for more than a week after I first heard it.

The Clockworks – Blood on the Mind. This Irish quartet signed with Alan McGee’s Creation Records, the label that signed Oasis back in the early 1990s, in 2019, releasing a bunch of singles and one EP since then but still no proper album. They’re often described in the British press as punk or post-punk but this tack isn’t as hard-edged as those genres, with the high energy of punk but a better groove in the bass and drums.

The Lottery Winners – Worry. These guys can’t miss, at least when it comes to crafting big pop hooks. Their second album, Anxiety Replacement Therapy, is due out on April 28th.

The Rills – Falling Apart. ThisLincolnshire band just missed my top 100 from last year with “Landslide,” but I’m going to guess this one will end up on my top 100 for 2023, as it has an even better hook and is the kind of English indie-rock that, for whatever reason, just speaks to me.

The Empty Page – Dry Ice. This post-punk duo from Manchester released their first album, Unfolding, back in 2016, but their follow-up has been delayed several times since then and is due out sometime this year. “Dry Ice” is the first single from it, released in November, with the next single due out March 3rd.

Etta Marcus – Smile for the Camera. Marcus is a 21-year-old singer/songwriter from London who gets compared to Lana del Rey and who I think would appeal to fans of Phoebe Bridgers and Lucy Dacus, except I’m not a fan of any of those three singers but I love this song from Marcus.

Arlo Parks – Weightless. Auto-include whenever Parks puts out a new single. There’s a slight shift here with an electronic element in the backing music here, the first single ahead of her sophomore album, My Soft Machine, due out May 26th.

Bree Runway w/Stormzy – Pick Your Poison. This came from Runway’s five-track December EP WOAH WHAT A BLUR!, mostly written by Stormzy, and it’s a very sweet and soulful ballad about heartbreak, a big departure from her usual sound.

Obey Robots – Porcupine. This song showed up on my Spotify Release Radar because it’s tagged as a collaboration with Ned’s Atomic Dustbin, but it’s actually a new project from Ned’s guitarist Gareth “Rat” Pring along with singer Laura Kidd. There’s a definite Ned’s vibe to the guitar work here, though.

White Reaper – Pink Slip. Another January album release, Asking for a Ride is the fourth full-length from these Kentucky garage-punk-pop stalwarts, although it’s just 29:21 long so isn’t that almost an EP? Anyway, I don’t think they’ve ever released a single I didn’t like.

Screaming Females – Brass Bell. Apparently I should know this group already, as Wikipedia tells me Spin named their singer/guitarist Melissa Paternoster the 77th greatest guitarist of all time back in 2012, which… seems aggressive? Anyway, not knowing them is on me, and this song has a great guitar hook and an earworm in the chorus.

shame – Six-Pack. shame’s third album, Food for Worms, comes out on February 24th, with this track and last year’s “Fingers of Steel,” this one in a more experimental vein with a frenetic energy that carries it through some of the discord in the guitars.

The New Pornographers – Really Really Light. This song is … fine. Not peak NP, not Twin Cinema or even Brill Bruisers, but it’s a perfectly cromulent New Pornographers song.

Black Honey – Up Against It. A Fistful of Peaches, Black Honey’s third album, is due out on March 17th, with this the fourth single ahead of its release (“Charlie Bronson,” “Out of My Mind,” “Heavy”), further indicating their shift to a darker sound than they started out with on the All My Pride EP and their self-titled debut album.

Rival Sons – Nobody Wants to Die. Have you seen that Chevy Silverado commercial with what sounds like a blatant Led Zeppelin ripoff for its music? I assumed it was Greta van Fleet, but it was actually a track from Rival Sons from about a decade ago. This is their newest track, and it’s in that same blues-rock vein but nowhere near as derivative.

Tribulation – Axis Mundi. Melodic death metal that’s actually just traditional heavy metal with death-metal vocals – this track, and really a lot of Tribulation’s music, derives far more from early British heavy metal and doom bands like Sabbath and Maiden than from death-metal forebears like Death or At the Gates.

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→ February 4, 2023
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Stick to baseball, 2/4/23.

My top 100 prospects ranking ran on Monday for subscribers to The Athletic, followed by the players who just missed the list, and then my ranking of all 30 farm systems. I held a Q&A on Monday, which the site excerpted for a separate article. I also held an old-fashioned Klawchat here on Friday. The team-by-team top 20s will start to run on Monday.

On The Keith Law Show, I spoke with Steve Ives, writer and director of the upcoming documentary Ruthless: Monopoly’s Secret History, which will run on PBS’s American Experience and stream online on February 20th. You can listen and subscribe via iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

I’ve been keeping up better with my free email newsletter recently, and I’ll get back to it again this upcoming week once I get through the last nine team reports.

And now, the links…

  • Mother Jones looks at the troll site Kiwi Farms, and how driving it offline hasn’t worked to stop its users’ campaigns of doxing and harassment.
  • Cory Doctorow examines what he calls the “enshittification” of TikTok and other sites that built up massive user bases on one premise and then switched to another model to make some money – a digital bait and switch of sorts.
  • The New Yorker looks at NY Times opinion columnist Pamela Paul, whose columns seem designed to push buttons and have often engaged in TERF-like arguments.
  • Abortion bans often include exceptions for rape or incest. They’re mostly meaningless, there to make people feel better about discriminatory laws against providing medical care.
  • Georgia cops killed a protestor fighting the construction of a massive training facility in the woods around Atlanta. They’re claiming he shot first. I do not take the word of police as truth.
  • Many consumers say that tipping is getting out of control. This isn’t a yes/no question, really; I think you can say tipping for some services is obligatory, and for others is unnecessary.
  • The role-playing game based on the Hugo-winning novel The Fifth Season is now on Backerkit.
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→ February 3, 2023
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Klawchat 2/3/23.

First Klawchat of 2023! Starting at 1 pm. You can see my top 100 prospects ranking and my ranking of all 30 farm systems if you’re a subscriber to The Athletic.

Keith Law: Let’s do some living, after we die. Klawchat.

Zac: Have you ever seen a rebuild go as poorly as the Tigers have?
Keith Law: We’ve seen some teams in the wilderness for more than a decade, certainly. It’s not unprecedented, and despite the farm system’s ranking, I don’t think this is some scorched-earth situation like the Angels a few years ago. This system isn’t devoid of talent, it’s just shallow, and most of their higher-upside guys have lower probabilities than their peers in other systems. I like the direction player dev has taken in the last year, and maybe a new approach in the draft will help too.

Braydon: Which organization is least likely to win a World Series in the next 10 years?
Keith Law: Tough call. Colorado, probably, as much because of ownership as anything else. Monfort appears to be watching another sport … on another planet.

Guest: Think Jordan Walker with break camp with the Cardinals?
Danny: I was surprised to see Ryne Nelson leading the way for rookie eligible pitchers that impressed in limited time last year. Why does he rank higher than Wesneski, Dray Jameson, and Waldicuk?
Keith Law: I don’t. They have Burleson and O’Neill for right field, and I imagine they’ll want to sort through that before putting Walker in the big leagues.
Keith Law: Nelson’s the best athlete with the highest upside of the group. Waldichuk might be the best bet for 2023 value, though, as he’s got the strongest hold on a job and will make half his starts in a graveyard.

Matt: I remember during Torkelson’s rookie year (or before) you said you wished you went with what you saw vs what you were hearing and ranked him lower on your prospect list. What was it that you saw that made you second guess what you were hearing?
Keith Law: I didn’t love the bat speed or the athlete. Saw power and a good eye, certainly, and he produced so well, even into the low minors, that I just figured I was wrong. The pandemic draft was by far the worst for me to cover, and I already think I’ve revised more opinions from that year than any other, because I saw so few guys that spring (I saw Tork and Martin as underclassmen; that spring I saw Lacy, Mitchell, Hancock, Wilcox, and Veen, and that might be it before the world ended).

Aaron C.: What was your favorite restaurant meal eaten last year?
Keith Law: Tough call. Pizzeria Sei in LA, maybe. Le Cavalier here in Wilmington.

Doug: Would you rather have an elite draft pick (let’s say Top 3) this year, or would you rather have the Mariners’ collection of picks between 20 and 30 (I think 22, 29, 30)?
Keith Law: Depends a little on the year, but I think I’d rather have 1-1. If we’re talking about #3, then I’d rather have the three later picks for the bonus pool value.

Paul: How long will it take for the Atlanta farm system to get closer to the middle of the pack?
Keith Law: Could be five years or more, because I expect Anthopoulos to keep trading prospects to maintain the major-league roster.

BravesFan72: Of all of the extended Braves players, who in your opinion has the biggest chance of being a disappointment?
Keith Law: If we set aside pitching injury risk, Harris’s approach at the plate worries me.

Sean Casey (not the player): More of a comment… I really enjoy the newsletters and the reflections on your own life.  Baseball stuff is good too.
Keith Law: Thank you. I get such a good response when I write about personal stuff like I have been that I’m leaning more into that.

Mike: What would you do to solve the massive payroll disparity between the big and small market teams. It’s beyond rediculous at this point and is killing baseball in multiple cities.
Keith Law: Is it? Or are penurious owners refusing to spend their revenue sharing takings the real problem?

J: If you’re the O’s do you run Henderson out at 3rd and Mateo at SS while you develop Westburg and Ortiz further? Or Henderson at SS, Urias (?) at 3rd and Mateo all over?
Keith Law: I’m a little biased on this because I think Henderson’s glove at third will be a 70 or better, but I know that not everyone sees it exactly that way. But I’d move him there, and Mateo keeps the seat warm at short until they can give Ortiz a go.

Carter: If Grissom can’t stick at SS defensively in a regular capacity, would he fit as a left fielder for Atlanta, or would he end up a trade piece?
Keith Law: Not sure the bat plays as a left fielder.

Jibraun: I recently read Alan C. Logan’s The Greatest Hoax on Earth, which thoroughly debunks most of Frank Abagnale Jr.’s claims in Catch Me If You Can. (Other journalists have also debunked Abagnale’s claims as well.) Basically, Abagnale made up 90% of the stuff he claimed he did. This changed my opinion of Abagnale’s book. I was wondering how it would affect your opinion of the book as I recall it being one of your favorite non-fiction books.
Keith Law: I haven’t read that book but I’ve read other debunkings and now it’s pretty clear Abagnale’s a phony. It’s a shame, as I did enjoy his book a ton. The movie sucked anyway.

Andrew: Thanks for doing these! The Nationals have struggled to have a good farm system and to produce any meaningful talent outside of Soto in years. Is that due to bad scouting, bad developmental coaching, bad investment (in resources) or bad luck?
Keith Law: Biggest reason was that they traded and graduated a lot of guys to build the WS winner, and then didn’t backfill well due to weaker drafts and very little from IFAs after Soto. I think they’re on the right track again, and now they’re not trading prospects, but stockpiling them.

Jose: Beyond the cheapness of ownership, do you think there is a root cause of the A’s inability to draft/sign and develop quality talent at the minor league level? Is it scouting? Development? Any cures?
Keith Law: I think if you go over their drafts, you see a lot of misses on high picks. Since Matt Chapman in 2014, these are their first-round/supplemental picks: Richie Martin, Daulton Jeffries, AJ Puk, Kevin Merrell, Austin Beck, the quarterback, Logan Davidson, Tyler Soderstrom, Max Muncy, Daniel Susac. One of those guys is a top 100 prospect and none are anything more than replacement-level big leaguers. They’re also usually late in the international free-agent cycles and end up with guys like Puason, Lazarito, and Pineda, all seven-figure guys who are non-prospects.

Dr. Bob: Hey Keith. When you say that STL’s system is atypically top-heavy, what does that say about their organizational depth?
Keith Law: Meaning their depth is lacking compared to their depth in previous years.

Steven: If you were the Orioles, would you look to trade Jorge Mateo to a team that missed on the FA shortstops and replace him with Joey Ortiz?
Keith Law: If there’s a market, sure, but I don’t think teams are banging down the door for a guy with a .267 OBP last year.

Jibraun: Do you believe Liberatore has the command/control to go to a heavier changeup/curveball mix? He didn’t seem to show much control, much less command, in his limited time in the majors last year.
Keith Law: I think the control problem was a function of trying to go away from contact, not pure wildness. So, yes, he does, but the Cardinals need to try a two-seamer or a cutter or something instead.

addoeh: So you’ve become an Eagles fan through your wife.  Are you also a Sixers or Flyers fan now?
Keith Law: No, she’s not anywhere near as much of a fan of those teams or sports. We’re busy now though with the Eagles and the Six Nations (Cymru am byth!).

Nolan: Hey Keith! Longtime follower of your work (you were the reason I finally sprung for the Athletic). I have a question I’ve been meaning to ask for a while: Did you (fairly?) recently come into following the NFL? I seem to remember you not following the league at all, and being vocal about it. Am I confusing you for someone else??
Keith Law: See above. I grew up watching football, lost interest in my 20s, only got back into it when my wife and I started dating four years ago.

Babo: Do you scout and write all your prospect ranks yourself, or is there a team that assists you? Any insight on that process?
Keith Law: I write everything myself. I see as many players as I can, talk to scouts/execs, watch video, etc. The words are all mine, though – it’s the equivalent of writing a full book every winter.

Hank the Tank: If Max Fried goes on to have Cy Young caliber seasons in 2023 and 2024, what kind of contract would you expect him to land in free agency?
Keith Law: $30 million a year or more, probably 6/$200MM or so. Maybe more.

Johnny Mo: Outside of his frame, are there big concerns that Tink Hence won’t hold up well with extended outings/a longer season, or is the trepidation moreso that he just hasn’t done it before?
Keith Law: He hasn’t done it and the limited workload in 2021 was due to shoulder soreness. No major injuries, though.

Jason: Hey keith. brewers fan here. What are we doing from your view? Going to arb with burnes over 700k? Starting rookies at multiple positions? has ownership just given up and gone cheap?
Keith Law: Starting rookies is fine. Fighting your best starter over $700K is bizarre.

Troy: Robert Gasser anything more than backend starter on bad team?
Keith Law: Probably not, but I like him.

Brian: What’s the release schedule for the upcoming articles? With so many recent prospects graduating, I hope for a list of top X under 25 type addition this year.
Keith Law: Team reports & top 20s run one division per day starting on Monday, Feb 6th. Anything beyond that will wait till some other time – I head out for my first draft scouting trip on the 17th.

Buck: Turang anywhere near Top 125? Enough bat to be a good regular on high end?
Keith Law: Maybe top 150. Not much ceiling but could be a regular.

Tim O’Donovan: What’s the ceiling and floor of Jett Williams?
Keith Law: Could be a star if he stays at SS and hits with some power. Floor is he never sees the majors.

Tony: Is there something about Painter’s pitching style/delivery that gives him more injury risk than the two pitchers ahead of him? Based on the capsule, it sounded like the risk of injury was the only thing keeping him out of the Top 6, but to me, it seems like the two pitchers ahead of him, who are the same age and one of whom has actually had injury issues already, would share that same risk.
Keith Law: I think you’re misinterpreting what I wrote.

Aaron C.: Have you ever shared or written your origin story on how got so into board games?
Keith Law: No, that’s a good idea, although I worry the story’s not that interesting in the end. Maybe the next newsletter.

addoeh: Anything you can share about Pedro Pineda from the A’s?  Pos and Schur want to know.
Keith Law: I think he’s an NP.
Keith Law: non-prospect, that is.

Brian: What are your thoughts on Spencer Strider?  The industry is enamored with the elite strikeout rate and seems to put him in the class with the other elite SP. I see a big innings jump, max effort delivery and over reliance on two pitches and worry for his ability to repeat 2022.
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s max effort, and the innings jump doesn’t concern me in and of itself. The fastball is elite, and I think he’s one of the few exceptions in that he can be a two-pitch starter.

Patrick Gordon: Hi Keith – I was reading about Drew Rom – He seems like a pretty high end prospect – what do you think of him?
Keith Law: He’s a low-end prospect, but on Baltimore’s top 20.
Keith Law: Full writeup on Tuesday in the Orioles’ org report.

Alex in Austin: Heliot Ramos has been really disappointing.  Are there weaknesses that can be addressed through coaching or is he close to a write-off?
Keith Law: Not close to a write-off at all – way too quick for that given his age and tools – but the year was somewhat inexplicable.

Nick P: I know the Mets are still middle of the pack, but it’s hard to not love what the organization is doing.
Keith Law: It’s the right strategy, no? You’re trying to win now. You keep a few high-ceiling prospects, or players who can help the big league very soon, and everyone else is available. Hell, everyone is available if the right player becomes available. If the Angels suddenly said they’d take offers on Trout, you offer anyone.

Jeff: What do you make of Kumar Rocker at this point?
Keith Law: Big injury/reliever risk. Shows starter stuff and size.

Mike: Hey Keith – i’m very concerned about Elijah Green. If guys like Kelenic/Adell/Brinson all flame out once they get to the bigs (and they have better hit tools to begin with – granted maybe they still bounceback) what chance does elijah green have?
Keith Law: Kelenic is a little different from the others – he hit all the way up to AAA, and he was never as raw a hitter as Adell/Brinson. Adell is the big cautionary tale here. The Angels pushed him way too quickly and it may have effectively ended his career.

Mike: Who makes the bigs first – Tanner Bibbee or Gavin Williams?
Keith Law: There’s no answer. It could just as easily be either.

Patrick Gordon: Keith – Coffee  or Tea?
Keith Law: Yes. I drink both, every day.

Romorr: Did you get a chance to see Beavers in A/A+? Curious if the Orioles changed anything with him or not from his college days.
Keith Law: Yes. They had not, yet, although I expect them to do so.

Patrick Gordon: Will Matt Gorski be an all star?
Keith Law: No, probably not, but he has that upside if you look really hard. It’s maybe 1 or 2% probability.

Kevin from DC: Do you think board games can be educational and fun at the same time?
Keith Law: Yes. I think most good ones teach something under the surface, even if it’s just a matter of thinking analytically, but lots teach probability, and some teach real subject matter (Genotype, Cellulose).

Rod: If Strider and Harris were somehow still in the minors where would you rank ATL’s system?  My guess is they’d be around 18-20 given the lack of position player talent.
Keith Law: To give a fair answer, I’d have to add back every team’s prospects that just graduated.

Jason: How much of a draft prospect is Duce Robinson, the outfielder from Arizona who is also a major football recruit?
Keith Law: Right now, I think his future is in football. Could change this spring when his season starts but it sounds like he’s way more talented there.

Guest: Do you think Florial has any real chance to stick as even the 4th OF (out of options) bc of his secondary skills or is the inability to hit breaking stuff fatal?
Keith Law: I could see them trying to carry him. The tools are outstanding, but I just don’t see him hitting enough to get any real playing time.

comish4lif: Any thoughts on Oriole’s President John Angelos getting snarky with fellow Athletic writer Dan Connolly and offering the open the Orioles books and then ghosting him? And probably anyone else who’s asked.
Keith Law: Terrible look for Angelos. He made an innocuous question into a controversy he never had to have. Now it won’t die.

Pat: What prospect was your all time biggest “miss”?
Keith Law: On the negative side, Paul Goldschmidt. I leaned too much on the opinions of others there. Or Chris Sale, but I actually think my process there was solid and he was more of a unicorn, whereas Goldschmidt was a clearer miss. On the positive side, I’ll go to my grave wondering how Justin Smoak failed to hit.

Freddie: Who do you think has the better career, cam Collier or Tamarr Johnson?
Keith Law: So I love both of them but they’re so different. Termarr is more likely and Collier has more ceiling.

Steve: So- any takeaways from the White Sox and Project Birmingham? Any chance this becomes a league-wide trend where teams elevate more prospects than typical in September for some sink/swim evaluation?
Keith Law: I love the idea, but we have to ignore the AA stats for most of those guys. Not every team could do it though – the White Sox had the right number and alignment of players to pull it off.

Philip Lee: True or False: Albert Pujols was much more effective in 2022 than he’d been on voer a decade – but if his teams had platooned him and used him judiciously, the way the Cards did in ’22, he would’ve been at least as effective as he was last year.
Keith Law: False.

Twinkiefan: is Emmanuel Rodriguez someone to get excited about in Minnesota? I’ve read high praise, but haven’t seen him in person. Thanks!
Keith Law: He’s on the top 100 with a full writeup. I would be excited, if I were capable of feeling emotions.

Chris: I am going to AZ ST for the first time after quite a few FL ones.  How excited should I be for the close proximity of parks?
Keith Law: You will never go back to Florida. I mean, nobody should go to Florida unless they have to, but Arizona spring training will convert you.

Dr: Why do you wear a mask when you walk into a restaurant but take it off as soon as you sit down? Does actively eating make you immune to COVID?
Keith Law: I don’t do this unless I’m going to be waiting a long while before sitting. It seems performative.

Alex: Is there a “next” country to arrive on the radar to produce professional baseball players, like Curacao and to a lesser extent Brazil did in the past decade or two?
Keith Law: It’s the Bahamas right now. After that, I’m not sure. I have hoped one of the European countries would break through – the Netherlands, or maybe Czechia – although the sport is growing in some far-flung places, like Uganda.

Matt: Would you have any issues with Andrew Painter breaking camp with the Phillies, as crazy as that may have sounded 1 yr ago? If so, wouldn’t they be pretty strict with his innings?
Keith Law: I’m not a big fan of that idea.

Russ: Po Boy – Catfish, Oyster, or Shrimp…………and where.
Keith Law: Shrimp for me. They’re just better in New Orleans, almost anywhere I’ve had them. We do have a good spot here at the Trolley Square Oyster House if you live in Delaware.

Mike: Bucs take crews at 1; nats take dollander at 2 sound right as of today?
Keith Law: I’d bet on no. Langford’s in there. Nats could take Clark for the ceiling. It’s a very strong, loaded top of the draft. I wouldn’t bet on any single outcome.

Wojak: Is there a reason you mostly answer softball questions like “where do you like to eat” and “are the tigers bad”?
Keith Law: Try reading some of the longer answers, if you can.

Todd Boss: Do you like the odds of the Nats outfield being Green, Hassell, and Wood by 2025?  Maybe throw in some Vaquero and De La Rosa into the mix?
Keith Law: That’s the best case scenario.

Isaac: The Guardians system is insanely deep, but do you see any if their bats as actual stars? They all seem pretty similar, without any of them wowing.
Keith Law: Valera has the most upside, and Rocchio might be a star, too.

Todd Boss: Foodie question: did you watch Chef’s Table: Pizza on Netflix?  First episode on Arizona’s pizza aficionado Chris Bianco?  Have you tried his “other” restaurant in addition to the flagship (which I know you’ve written up before)
Keith Law: I haven’t watched it yet, and yes, I’ve tried Tratto twice – it’s excellent.

Isaac: Any insight into Jaison Chourio? Looking at the stat sheet, numbers look promising. Or is that just due to the name that we all think he could be a breakout player in that system?
Keith Law: It’s almost all projection at this point, but he’s interesting.

Wojak: You didn’t answer Mike’s question; what would you do to solve payroll disparity? Have a salary floor? Require 100% of rev sharing go to roster? etc
Keith Law: I thought that was fairly obvious – you have to prevent owners from pocketing revenue sharing, and require them to spend it on players, whether the MLB roster or amateurs.

Guest: If you were the Yankees would you look to start Peraza at SS and move Volpe to 2nd long term? Or would you be looking to move Peraza in a deal for pitching or a LF?
Keith Law: I’m not moving Volpe off short unless I have to.

Wild bill pecos: Hudson Haskin- is he a GUY if his power takes another step forward this year?
Keith Law: No.

Chris: Dalton Rushing was a big riser from your draft rankings. Safe to say his pro debut was way better than expected?
Keith Law: Yes and pro scouts were blown away by the feel to hit.

Justin: youve probably answered this 48 times but what was your favorite restaurant in your time in Pittsburgh
Keith Law: It’s long closed, sadly.

Mark: During the regular season do you make it to more major league parks or minor league parks? Which are your favorite cities in both?
Keith Law: Only minor league parks unless there’s a debut I want/need to see. I haven’t been to a major league game since before the pandemic, because it’s just so much more productive for me to see multiple players at a time in the minors.

Patrick Gordon: Keith. I will buy you dinner if you ever visit Madison Wisconsin!
Catcher if you can: Why did you rank Cartaya over Alvarez? They’re the same age, but Cartaya hasn’t passed A ball and Alvarez has already seen major league action, not to mention the success in the minors.
Keith Law: Thank you, but with no minor-league or college team there, it’s not likely.
Keith Law: Cartaya’s a better defender with at least as much upside with the bat.

GaryT: Which minor leaguer has the highest upside if everything possible goes right?Im assuming its a tooled up player with a possible hit tool concern. Maybe Elijah Green, James Wood? De la cruz?
Keith Law: Elly. But he has more failure risk than anyone else in the top ten.

Will: Hey Keith, love your work. I noticed Ezequiel Tovar fell from #25 on your midseason ranking to #69 on the top 100. What was the reason for such a big drop?
Keith Law: That’s the wrong way to look at these lists – they’re not sequential. I don’t look at my own midseason list before creating this one.

Marc: Thanks for the recommendations on games!  I asked about some follow up Q’s about Ticket to Ride sequels, but chose to go with your #2 choice overall (Carcassonne), and my son (age 7) begs to play every weekend morning.  Thanks for your lists!
Keith Law: Wonderful! I love hearing a recommendation worked out. Having analog games to play with kids, family members, friends feels so valuable in a digital age.

Mike: What’s your favorite board game to play online? I use catan universe a lot, but it’s been buggy lately
Keith Law: I play a lot on BGA and my favorite varies. Great Western Trail is a good one.

Jason: What are your thoughts on Luis Campusano? Will he be a legaue-average hitter?
Keith Law: I’m still in. He’s no longer eligible for prospect lists though.

Bob: Do you watch pork with your kids? You seem like someone who would.
Keith Law: We prefer eating pork to watching it. Mostly it just sits there.

Kip: Did you work with Alex Anthopoulos in Toronto?
Keith Law: Yes, for two years. Amazing mind and a great person.

addoeh: Any possibility of a new pizza ranking?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s on my long list of projects for the dish this year.

Groot: Sex is binary, right?
Keith Law: Never has been, never will. Don’t you science deniers ever get tired of repeating yourselves?

James: Will you be seeing Grand Canyon Jacob Wilson at all? Maybe when out here for spring training?
Keith Law: Saw him last spring and hope to see him again. I thought he could be a back-end first rounder, definitely top two rounds, based on last year.

Scott: Curious what other movie reviews are on tap — what you’ve seen but not yet written up and what you’re eager to see but haven’t. #StickToBaseball
Keith Law: I think I have five I could write up, including Triangle of Sadness and Causeway.

Ryan: Hi Keith, it’s hard not to get excited about Arizona’s young core – but is it enough to truly compete with LA and SD without Kendrick opening the pocketbook to spend a bit more than he’s ever really shown he’s willing to?
Keith Law: They’ll have to spend at some point to supplement the core.

Rocco: Any reason why people seem to be more outspoken and outraged over Bauer alleged crimes vs worse crimes of other athletes?
Keith Law: Is that true? I guess it could be because he was also more outspoken about proclaiming his innocence and suing his accusers (and the Athletic). Or maybe he’s just higher profile than others?

Bo: What’s your favorite pizza topping?
Keith Law: Mushrooms.

James: Are you still learning/practicing guitar or did you kind of give it up? Are you still learning/practicing Welch language?
Keith Law: I’ve played guitar since I was 8, and play most days if I can grab a few minutes. I finished the Welsh Duolingo course, so I am sort of ‘done’ learning it for now.

Chris P: Matt McLain fell off pretty badly after not really succeeding in AA, but do you still see him having a major league career if he moved to 2B?
Keith Law: A career, maybe, but he’s not the prospect I thought he was before the ’21 draft.

Scott: I know people often accuse you of being biased about certain teams — an accusation you always push back at. But do you think you could be biased by certain people who talk to you about certain scouts or industry insiders who you especially like and are interesting but don’t always provide good information?
Keith Law: I’m aware of the potential for sources to be biased and recalibrate accordingly. I also talk to a very wide range of people every year for the top 100 etc.

Chris P: Can Jordan Balazovic turn it around to become a starter long term?
Keith Law: Yes. I don’t think he was healthy at all last year.

You Probably Love Your Mother-In-Law: Favorite I Think You Should Leave sketches? Focus group, bones are their money, and safari hat trial come to mind.
Keith Law: Karl Havoc, the Diner friend, Dan Flashes, Brooks Brothers, Parking lot.

James: Will you be watching the super bowl this year since Eagles in it? Making a menu for it?
Keith Law: Yes but my wife is cooking her green chili (for the Eagles, of course).

JDFSBD: What is your all time favorite 2 player boardgame?
Keith Law: Jaipur.

James: do you think Delaware is where you will be long term? Thought of moving to a new city?
Keith Law: I will be here for the long term.

Chris P: I love how fans get so mad at you if you don’t have a certain guy ranked #1 overall, or if you left a guy out of the top 100. Like these rankings are not super fluid and the players you did rank ahead are pretty much the same after a certain point.
Keith Law: Also, these rankings don’t do anything. They don’t affect games. They don’t make players better or worse. They’re information and opinion.

Chris: How close did the new international signings come to your top 100 list? Specifically celestine? How do you personally go about ranking/rating players that young?
Keith Law: I don’t consider any of the guys who just signed on these rankings. There’s way too little information on them. Most of those kids haven’t been scouted for over a year, some for more like two to three years.

James: I remember you went to Jarod Parker’s debut at chase field in AZ… wish he stayed healthy
Keith Law: I did, and yes.

Mike: You ranked a lot of catchers in your top prospects list. Are we in the midst of a catching Renaissance? If so, what do you attribute that to?
Keith Law: They’re also just more valuable if they stay back there and hit. Catchers, shortstops, centerfielders.

Evan: I’m sorry but wtf kind of question is “do you watch pork with your kids?”!?
Keith Law: It’s a typo from someone trying to be an asshole but failing miserably.

James: thoughts on MLB reinstating that scout who was banned permanently?
Keith Law: If you mean the former Atlanta GM John Coppolella, I thought the lifetime ban was absurd. We shouldn’t be punishing those infractions more severely than domestic abuse or sexual assault.

Jed: DL Hall is getting more and more high end reliever predictions. Do you have hopes of him bringing a middle or even possibly frontline rotation piece?
Keith Law: He wouldn’t be in my top 100 if he had no chance to start. Too good an athlete to give up on him starting.

Adam D.: Any opinions as to why the Giants seem to be consistently missing on their first round picks? They keep finding decent value in later rounds, which is nice for depth, but the lack of top tier talent from the one round where you really need to find it is more than a little concerning.
Keith Law: Their particular approach the last few years, before 2022, does seem like it offered more risk than reward – Bishop, Bailey, Bednar, Bart. Maybe they shouldn’t draft players whose surnames start with B?

Justin: Do you see MLB taking any kind of stand against Florida based on the actions and policies of Ron DeFascist?
Keith Law: No.

Appa Yip Yip: Speaking of mushrooms and sex not being binary wait until these people learn about how fucked up mushrooms are
Keith Law: Yep. Or what it means to be intersex.

Scott: Have all Delaware residents met Joe Biden at some point?
Keith Law: I haven’t but it’s amazing how many people have.

Jesse B: is Josh Lowe a starter for his defense but always strikeouts too much and hits for low avg with some power and speed? Platoon player?
Keith Law: Might be a platoon player after all, which would be a big disappointment.

Scott: So you’ll answer oddball questions about gender and mushrooms, but not about the New York Times buying The Athletic …?
Keith Law: I get hundreds of questions in these. I answer a small fraction of them. Have a beer and relax.

Aaron: As an ATL fan I was bummed to lose Dana Brown but very happy for him getting this opportunity. His background, going back to Montreal, reads like the perfect background for a GM role yet this is his 2nd or 3rd attempt at a top job. No question but when people say minorities have to be sterling and near perfect to get the same opportunities an Ivy Leaguer….this is what they mean.
Keith Law: Agreed. I’m also very happy for Dana, and impressed that Jim Crane ended up with a GM and manager from diverse backgrounds.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – back to writing up team reports. Thank you for your questions and for reading all the content this week. More content to come!

Filed Under: Uncategorized
→ January 28, 2023
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All Quiet on the Western Front.

All Quiet on the Western Front took home nine nominations for this year’s Academy Awards, including Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best international Feature (as Germany’s submission). It is, as you might know, adapted from Erich Maria Remarque’s 1929 novel of World War I. It’s big, and epic, and certainly lets you know where everyone involves stands on the subject of war. (They think it’s bad.) It’s also a film that doesn’t have any good reason to exist.

Paul Bäumer (Felix Kammerer) is our protagonist, an idealistic and nationalistic 17-year-old in Germany who signs up to fight for the fatherland in 1917, more than halfway through World War I. He and his schoolmates are quickly disabused of any notions of war as heroic or noble, as they’re thrown right into trench warfare and find one of their number dead before they can fire their first shot. We follow them through the next eighteen or so months, till the Armistice, as one by one they’re killed in battle, often in circumstances that might be ridiculous if they weren’t so tragic. Along the way, we see them hungry, disillusioned, bored, and filthy, along with occasional reminders of the use of chemical weapons that marked World War I for particular brutality. The film cuts away to scenes of negotiations between German and French leaders or discussions among German brass, all of which take place in relative luxury – and clean, dry conditions – compared to the sodden trenches in which Paul and his mates fight and die.

I had to read Remarque’s novel in high school and hated it, yet somehow, despite looking incredible, this film doesn’t do the book justice. There’s a key passage in the book where Paul goes home to visit family from the front and finds that he’s already changed enough that he can’t relate to his relatives and friends any more. They don’t understand what he’s been through, and he’s not the same person they knew before he went to fight. The film omits it entirely, in favor of those stolid scenes of generals and diplomats. The latter provides that strong contrast – there’s a scene where one of the men is upset because the croissants were clearly not baked that same morning – but it also wrecks any momentum the war story has, and it doesn’t help the character development in the way that the book’s scene where Paul goes home would have, something he doesn’t really get until a bit much later in the film when he’s trapped in no man’s land with a French soldier.

The movie does look fantastic, though, even when it’s gruesome. There are tremendous aerial shots of the battlefields, tight shots of the men in battle that put you uncomfortably close to the action, and trenches that I assume they just reused from 1917. One of the Oscar nominations came for Makeup and Hairstyling, and you can see why; these men look disgusting. There’s a clear commitment here to verisimilitude, and while I can’t say this is what World War I really looked like, it’s definitely what I think World War I really looked like.

All Quiet on the Western Front is about two and a half hours long, and not brisk, which gave me a lot of time to think about the bigger picture (pun intended), and I couldn’t escape the conclusion that this film doesn’t need to exist. We don’t really need an anti-war movie, not of this sort, at least, when war hasn’t looked like this in a hundred years, and so much fighting today is done via drones that separate killer from victim. We don’t need another World War I movie, especially since we just had one four years ago, and that war doesn’t have the more enduring lessons to impart that World War II or Vietnam or Iraq (the second one) do. And this movie has nothing new to say about war or the book, which has been filmed at least twice before, including the 1930 American version that won Best Picture. New takes on existing films should bring something new, and this one can only offer better cinematography and makeup.

I can’t believe this film got nine nominations while Decision to Leave, South Korea’s submission for the Best International Feature Film award, was shut out. There’s no comparison here – Decision is an original story, a better story, better acted, and with more to say. Argentina, 1985 is better. La Caja, which didn’t even make the shortlist, is better. All Quiet is more technically ambitious, but it’s nowhere near as compelling as those films, and I don’t think the point of the Best International Feature award, where countries from all over the world should be competing on equal footing, is to reward the film with the biggest budget. This is a big movie, and a fine one, but it is absolutely not a great one.

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→ January 25, 2023
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Blacktop Wasteland.

S.A. Cosby’s 2020 novel Blacktop Wasteland takes the one-last-job gimmick into the back woods of North Carolina, where Beauregard “Bug” Montage, a getaway driver of exceptional skill who has since retired from the larceny game, finds his legitimate business threatened with bankruptcy if he can’t come up with $20,000. Coincidentally, a thief who cost him a huge payout the last time they worked together shows up with the promise of a six-figure score if Bug will drive him and a buddy to knock over a jewelry store in Virginia. Needless to say, the job does not go as planned, leading to a high body count and a mostly predictable ride down the highways and back roads as Bug tries to save himself, his family, and maybe his business too.

Bug’s life is not conducive to being a getaway driver, as he’s now living with his wife and two kids, while he has at least one daughter from a previous relationship, and takes some care of her because her mother is an addict. This, of course, leads to some fairly obvious complications, where anyone involved in the heist gone wrong can threaten not just Bug but any members of his family. His garage is failing because one of his many nemeses in their small town has opened up another, new garage and siphoned off a large portion of his customers – but that garage conveniently burns down, and its racist white owners decide to pay Bug (who is Black) a visit. And the planning of the heist itself turns out to be less than ironclad, as what Bug’s confederates are stealing belongs to someone else who will be very unhappy to see it lost, while the two men he’s working with turn out to be less than worthy of his trust.

It’s a lot, and I don’t mean that in a good way; it feels like Cosby is artificially ratcheting up the stakes as much as he can to produce a specific level of high tension and a dire situation for Bug to escape. While the plot itself isn’t predictable, the plot’s destination is. There’s only one way this can all end, really, and you can paint in broad strokes how Cosby is going to get us there, and who’s likely to be left standing when the story ends.

That’s not to say Blacktop Wasteland is boring – it is tense, and sometimes exciting, and never slow. There’s one particular car chase that is about as well-written as I’ve seen, where Cosby translates the speed of the chase and Bug’s dexterity behind the wheel into prose without breaking the spell of the scene with extraneous descriptions. I’m not a car guy, but Cosby seems well-versed in engines and what cars might be capable of doing in the hands of someone like Bug, who is both expert driver and mechanic. I’m also not immune to the type of narrative greed created by a plot where one man is targeted by just about everyone else in the story except for his own family; Cosby pulls the rubber band as far as it can possibly go without breaking, and when he lets it go, it’s effective, even if you can guess the general outline of things to come.

In the end, however, Blacktop Wasteland felt too familiar, and in some ways too derivative of other heist novels, such as the Parker novels from Richard Stark (a pen name of Donald Westlake). Cosby may have been trying to touch on some larger themes here, especially of race, but if so, it doesn’t achieve that goal – there’s only the story itself, which is enough to sustain the read but not enough to recommend it.

Next up: P. Djèlí Clark’s A Master of Djinn, winner of last year’s Nebula Award for Best Novel.

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→ January 23, 2023
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Aftersun.

Aftersun is the debut feature from director Charlotte Wells, a lovely, bittersweet slice of memory that avoids big moments or clear answers. Featuring two outstanding performances by Paul Mescal and newcomer Frankie Corio, it gets under your skin, and lingers on the palate afterwards like a dessert with complex flavors. (You can rent it on Amazon, iTunes, etc., or watch free on MUBI outside of the U.S.)

Mescal and Corio are Calum, a single dad, and his daughter Sophie, who embark on a long father-daughter vacation with a tour group to Turkey to celebrate his upcoming 31st birthday and her 11th birthday. It’s around the year 1999, based on some of the music (Blur’s “Tender” was released that year), and the two have brought a handheld video camera on the trip, allowing Wells to present some scenes as they would have been recorded by Calum or Sophie. As the trip progresses, it becomes clear that Calum is not doing well, as he shows signs of depression and makes offhand comments that offer a slight glimpse into his inner turmoil. That trip constitutes nearly all of the film; there’s just one brief scene afterwards, as we see an adult Sophie watching the end of the videotape(s) we’ve been watching with her.

To say more about Aftersun risks breaking the spell it casts upon the audience. I have a vague memory of an interview Tom Petty gave around 1991, saying that part of Bob Dylan’s genius as a songwriter was the way he could just drop you into a story without giving you all sorts of prologue or introduction; you’re just right in the story from the start, and he figures you’ll catch up. Aftersun functions exactly like that: There’s almost no introduction to these two characters, other than a brief scene near the start where we learn about their ages and imminent birthdays. Wells allows us to learn about the characters through dialogue, such as that Sophie’s mum and Calum are divorced, or that she lives with her mum in Scotland and only visits Calum in London occasionally – or for a special trip like this one. It is a difficult way to tell a story, but Wells executes it flawlessly. By the end of Aftersun, you know Sophie, and you know Calum well enough to try to understand him as adult Sophie is likely trying to do by watching these old videos. He’s not declining over the course of the trip, but we see the vicissitudes of his mental state, sometimes through Sophie, but also sometimes when he’s on his own, raising the question of how much of what we see actually happened and how much is Sophie trying to fill in the gaps.

Both Mescal and Corio are superb in Aftersun, as they must be, with virtually no other characters getting more than a few lines. I had only seen Mescal in his small role in The Lost Daughter, and he is a presence here, with instant credibility as a young, single dad, adrift in his life, loving his daughter and increasingly aware of his deficiencies (or perhaps exaggerating them) as a father. Corio had never acted in anything prior to Aftersun, which is just shocking given the performance she delivers here, playing a kid her own age with the aplomb of an actor who’s playing down a few years. Sophie is trying to figure out her dad while she’s also at an age when she’s trying to figure out herself – her interactions with some teenagers staying at the resort are unrelated to the father-daughter storyline but crucial both in expanding our understanding of her character and in anchoring us to the time in her life when all of this is occurring. Corio gets even tiny details right, like the look on her face when the teens first invite her to come hang out with them, without her dad; she’s there, quietly smiling, but also so clearly absorbing everything she can take in, as if she’s studying this alien species, the Teenager, to better understand them.

Aftersun ends on an ambiguous note, and I’m fine with that in this case. This isn’t a mystery or thriller that demands explanation. The actual details don’t matter for the narrative in the film – what happened after the camera stopped rolling, so to speak, is immaterial. If anything, Wells’ choice not to give any sort of epilogue redirects your thinking back to what you did see and pushes us into adult Sophie’s perspective. It’s one of the best films I’ve seen from 2022, a story to be experienced, one that touches on universal facets of childhood and parenthood – yet another film about how we can never truly understand our parents – while also telling a very specific story about two very realistic and memorable characters.

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→ January 22, 2023
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Stick to baseball, 1/21/23.

No new content for subscribers to the Athletic as I’ve continued writing capsules for the top 100 prospects ranking, which will run on January 30th. Please stand by.

My podcast did return this week, with guest Seth Reiss, who co-wrote the screenplay for the film The Menu. You can listen and subscribe via iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

I’m planning to send out another issue of my free email newsletter on Sunday, now that I’m back on track with the prospect stuff. I was fairly stressed about it as recently a few days ago, but I’ve caught up enough that I can finish everything with a reasonable daily output of words.

And now, the links…

  • Longreads first: A 17-year-old woman in Texas wanted an abortion. A judge decided she wasn’t “mature” enough to make that choice. ProPublica looks at the ramifications of that decision.
  • The San Francisco Chronicle has the heartbreaking story of a mother’s attempts to help her daughter, a 35-year-old opioid addict living on the San Francisco streets, touching on the city’s lack of services for addicts and for homeless people. There’s a sad baseball connection: The daughter’s boyfriend, Abdul Cole, was a Marlins minor leaguer for three years, but died last April.
  • The School Board of Madison County, Virginia, voted to ban 21 books from its libraries, including The Handmaid’s Tale and four books by Nobel laureate Toni Morrison, because Christian groups complained.
  • Meanwhile, two Christian activists in Crawford County, Arkansas, are trying to remove the library director and defund the system over the display of LGBTQ+ books, calling it an “alternative lifestyle.” Sexual orientation is not a lifestyle, or a choice. Gender identity is not a lifestyle, or a choice. Religion is a lifestyle, and a choice.
  • Iowa Republicans are trying to defund public schools by allowing parents to use vouchers for private schools, including religious schools, which would seem to violate the principle of separation of church and state. You can send your kids to a parochial school, but only without my tax dollars.
  • A couple of Eagles players recorded a Christmas album for charity, hoping to raise about $30,000. It raised $250,000 and will help fund two toy drives and a summer camp for Philly kids with serious behavioral problems. (We have a copy.)
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→ January 17, 2023
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Elder Race.

Adrian Tchaikovsky’s Elder Race made the shortlist for this year’s inaugural Ursula K. Le Guin Prize, which first brought him to my attention even though he’d written twenty-odd novels before this and won a few awards along the way. It’s a quick read with a clever conceit at its heart: what if the person who’s supposed to be a great wizard is, in fact, just a human who possesses sufficiently advanced technology that it appears to be magic?

The ’wizard’ Nygroth Elder is, in fact, Nyr Illim Tevitch, an anthropologist left in stasis to keep an eye on this colonized planet while the remainder of his crew has long since left to return to Earth – which may or may not still be a going concern. Lynesse Fourth Daughter, a princess so junior you might call her a spare to the spare, believes there’s an existential threat to her people, so she treks to Nyr’s tower to try to enlist his help to fight what she calls a demon, which her own mother thinks is a fabrication to try to gain attention or glory. Nyr reluctantly agrees to help, even though his directive is to observe but not interfere, even if refraining might cause harm to the people he’s watching, and they set off on a quest to find and defeat the threat. Along the way, the culture clash between the two emerges through their languages, as Nyr can’t even explain what a scientist is, and the translation engine he uses makes everything sound to Lynesse like some sort of magic.

Elder Race is a quest novel – or novella, which is how the Hugo Awards characterized it, giving it a nomination in that category in 2022 – but one with a metatextual component as well that, in some ways, is the more interesting of the two. Tchaikovsky tells the story by alternating narration between Lynesse and Nyr, thus presenting both sides of most of their conversations, which operates as a commentary on fantasy literature and works that try to blend fantasy and science, as well as a more humanist look at the challenges of communicating across cultures. The fact that Lynesse’s language lacks so many words that Nyr takes for granted and finds himself unable to express even through translation recalled Samuel Delany’s classic novella Babel-17, which takes the Sapir-Whorf hypothesis – that the structure of a language influences how its speakers view the world – and turns it into an entire story, where a language is a weapon that alters speakers’ minds. Here language is less insidious, but stands as a concrete example of the difficulty of communicating across all of the boundaries that separate people, not just language but culture, history, religion, and more. Language is the visible manifestation of what amounts to a religious difference between Lynesse’s people and Nyr; what her family and subjects believe is magic is just technology they’ve lost in the centuries since humans colonized this planet.

Nyr is the more interesting and developed character of the two, in part because Lynesse is, by design, depicted as naïve – she’s young, but also not very worldly even within the confines of this civilization, and her faith in Nyr based on a historical anecdote is almost charming in its innocence. Nyr, meanwhile, has to grapple with both his role as potential savior, or as a failed savior, to Lynesse’s people, while also facing the fact that he might be severed permanently from his own civilization, condemned to a lonely existence where he enters long periods of suspended animation and can’t forge enduring relationships with anyone. He encounters crippling depression and covers it up with the help of embedded tech that takes the old trope about men compartmentalizing their emotions and turns it into software; he can just push it aside and deal with it later.

Tchaikovsky – who spells his name Czajkowski outside of his writing, as he’s of Polish descent rather than Russian – packs a lot into the 200 pages of Elder Race, without skimping on the quest part of the story, which is the real narrative that drives the book forward. You could probably just read this as a straight-up quest without giving the larger themes a second thought and still enjoy it. I found those themes gave this novel more heft and staying power in my mind after I finished. It’s to Czajkowski’s credit that he managed this in such a brief novel that revolves almost entirely around just two core characters.

Next up: I’m many books behind in my writeups, but I’m currently reading Brian Clegg’s Gravitational Waves: How Einstein’s Spacetime Ripples Reveal the Secrets of the Universe.

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