New game review over at Paste of the light detective/puzzle game Watson and Holmes.

Keith Law: I’m riding high upon a deep depression. It’s Klawchat.

Greg: What’s the latest draft buzz in the top 5?
Keith Law: I just posted a mock 3 days ago: http://klaw.me/2rfDkiH

Steeeve: How is it possible to have a lower OBP than average?
Keith Law: No walks, 1 sacrifice fly. This is something I decided not to rant about in Smart Baseball because it seemed too wonky/math-nerdy (although I am not ashamed of being a math nerd), but it’s a really obvious flaw in the system. Also, true story, i had a long argument with some Blue Jays front office members in 2002 or 2003 about this … and they all defended making the sac fly a non-at bat, and even argued that a run-scoring groundout deserved the same treatment!

Patty O’Furniture: So…Ronald Acuna is kind of crushing everything right now. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Nothing new, really. I ranked him high this winter, because I loved the bat speed and feel for contact. But a .520 BABIP or whatever he has? There’s no way to interpret that without assuming a huge portion of it is noise – again, even if you really like the player, which I do.

Brian: Devers in Boston by August?
Keith Law: Possible. I’d like to see them bump him up to AAA soon if they’re thinking about that. BTW, I saw Buster tweeted a note from another evaluator saying Devers is too big for 3b; I couldn’t disagree more. Not only is he physically able to stay there, he’s got great hands and a plus arm.

John: Is the Nate Pearson Mets buzz legitimate?
Keith Law: I don’t believe they’d take him unless their board absolutely fell apart. Even then I’m not sure; you’re talking about a guy with an 80 fastball, but questionable secondary stuff and a screw in his elbow. Pretty big risk for top 20 … which isn’t to say it won’t happen, just that I think it’s unlikely to happen.

Jake: Which prospects in the Phillies system are actually worth getting excited about at this point?
Keith Law: Lots? I still think Crawford’s going to be fine. Hoskins is good. Kingery is good, maybe really good. Brito is good. Moniak is good. They have some power arms, although none is really close to ready. It’s a solid system.

Greg: How was Garage Bar?
Keith Law: Excellent. I ate really well in Louisville – there, Gralehaus, Milkwood, Royal Chicken, Mayan Cafe, Sunergos, Quills, Press on Market.

Greg: Sorry, I didn’t realize the teams in the top 5 all were thinking exactly the same way they were 3 days ago.
Keith Law: Wow, that was wildly unnecessary. This isn’t Twitter.

JDB: Are you hearing a lot of talk about the Red Sox and Hiura or just a predictable landing spot in your eyes?
Keith Law: No, they’re linked. But I don’t think it’s better than 50/50 that he’s there; a lot will depend on how teams view his medical and if they’re willing to take that risk to get a bat who projects to plus hit (or better) with at least 55 power. Could go as high as 12, I think.

Sam: What is up with Max Fried? Dude was dominant in A ball and really good in spring training, but his peripherals have not been good this year.
Keith Law: His peripherals are fine, but his ERA isn’t, because he’s been atrocious from the stretch. He’s had a mild split (bases empty/runners on) before, but this year it’s out of control. Too small a sample to say it’s conclusive, but that’s how you post a near-6 ERA with those secondary numbers.

Marc: What albums on the horizon do you have your eye on?
Keith Law: alt-J came out today; I thought it was just so-so. WAVVES new album is great. Less Art’s debut is very good but not out till July (I got a copy because I know two of the members quite well). I think that’s all I know about, but I tend to just take new music as it comes rather than mapping out future releases like I would with movies.

Paul: Mets going for college or highschool with 20th pick. I am hoping for Logan Warmoth. Thoughts?
Keith Law: That’s who I gave them in my mock, so we appear to be on the same page. Kid can really hit.

Ken from AZ: I’m going to reply to your question by quoting it, and you’re not allowed to make any reference to it. So there.
Keith Law: Dammit, Ken, you got me again.

Fred: How good is Derek Fisher? Hitting over .340 in AAA, 4 straight games with a HR.
Keith Law: He’s good, but remember it’s the PCL, and those 4 straight games include 3 against Albuquerque’s atrocious pitching staff.

Dan: With all these rookies coming up and being hot right away (eventually leveling out), is it weird that Mike Trout had his worst half season ever when he came up?
Keith Law: He was only 19, though. Not that weird.

Jack: If the Giants looked to deal Cueto, could Eloy Jimenez be had?
Keith Law: For a half-season rental, I doubt it. Eloy is pretty special.

Jack: Is Pavin Smith to the Phillies just smoke? Have you heard anything else in regards to Austin Beck?
Keith Law: The Phillies were very heavy at the ACC tournament too, but if those games hold any weight, I don’t see how they’d take Smith at 8; in two games he didn’t hit a single ball hard. Haseley did, though. If I revised that mock from the other day right now, I’d have Beck 6 to Oakland instead of Smith.

Nate: who do you see falling in the draft and taking an over slot sandwich round deal?
Keith Law: Pick a dozen high school arms after the group of Greene, Gore, Hall. Half of them will do what you said. Enlow seems likely to do that. Carlson too.

Jack: What position do you think Hiura ends up at post-elbow surgery? Also any other names the Red Sox might be considering at 24?
Keith Law: Batters’ box? No one seems to know if he can really play second base post-surgery. It wasn’t a very good arm before he got hurt. Best college bat there is the most likely pick, although the only thing I think they probably won’t do is a HS arm, not after taking Groome last year.

Chris: Obviously the real Michael Chavis is somewhere between this year and last year, but what is your current assessment of him?
Keith Law: He played hurt last year and didn’t tell the Red Sox. I’m inclined to throw 2016 out the window for him.

Jack: Has there been enough of a sample to be cautiously optimistic that Avisail Garcia may turn into a useful player?
Keith Law: He’s been useful this year, even with the big dropoff in May from April. Do we think he can be a high-BABIP guy, enough to overcome the lack of walks, speed, or big power? I’d buy that. He had a .350 BABIP in May and hit .301/.345/.485; that’s enough to make him a regular in a corner.

Jeff: Love the Garbage reference. What would you say is Cody Bellinger’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Superstar, MVP type of player. He was originally #2 on my top 100 in January, only behind Benintendi, but everyone I sent the rough list out to said I had him too high. I should have bet on myself for a change.

Gary: What are your thoughts on Kevin Kramer? Can he be a starter?
Keith Law: More inclined to say utility guy, since his roll this year is entirely BABIP-fueled … but a shortstop who never strikes out is a beautiful thing, right? Plenty of guys have started out like that and developed into regulars in their late 20s.

DJB: Robbie Ray?!?!! Is this real or just SSS
Keith Law: I think it’s real. Huge K numbers last year, prone to the big inning and bad luck (or bad performance) with sequencing. I had him and Aaron Hicks on my 2016 breakouts list. Guess I should just go back and edit that file…

JDB: If you were a college AD who would your top choices be for manager if you had an opening? The Chad Holbrook experiment looks to be ending. It’s like he spent to much time on Twitter.
Keith Law: Remember how Holbrook came after me when I pointed out the futility of Brandon McIlwain matriculating early, thus removing any chance some MLB team would shove seven figures at him on draft day? Derailed the kid’s career, at least for now, although I’m hopeful he’ll get back on track at Cal next spring. Between that and overworking some arms, including Clarke Schmidt (who may have been destined to break anyway with that arm action), I can’t say it was a great run for Holbrook there. As for candidates, I’ll demur because I don’t think I know enough people to give a good opinion.

Tim: Question regarding McKay/Greene – assuming they don’t take the mound after the draft – are they likely to try their hand at both pitching and hitting next year or will they likely be headed straight to the mound w/o concern for how well they hit this year?
Keith Law: McKay will almost certainly do both. Greene’s future is on the mound, IMO.

Aaron: If I recall this correctly, Kingery was one of your top three 2b prospects this (or was it last) year, but outside of the top 100. Does his sudden power boom (SSS) change your perception at all?
Keith Law: It’s Reading, and lots of guys see power spikes in Reading, but graduations from the top 100 would have likely put him on the list anyway.

John: Can you elaborate on why you think Jack Flaherty (just promoted to AAA) could be a #2? I’ve read others say he’s more of a pitchability 4th starter type.
Keith Law: I’d ask them why they think he’s a “pitchability” type with that stuff. The only knock I’ve ever heard on him is that his delivery is so easy it might not provide enough deception. Hochevar and Appel come to mind with this.

HH: Have you heard anything about Brady Aiken’s progress? I’m trying to resist scouting the stat line as someone taught me.
Keith Law: Throwing upper 80s. So in this case the stat line isn’t lying to you. He hasn’t gotten back to where he was.

Well Played Mauer: How much should one look into the Hunter Greene workout with the Twins 3 days before the draft?
Keith Law: That’s normal stuff. Teams will work out anyone who’ll agree to come work out for them.

Logan: I asked you about a month ago about Beck to the Braves, and we both agreed that would be a stretch.. I’m hoping for for Gore/Lewis, but just wondering who you think has the higher upside between the two?
Keith Law: Gore. People I trust talk about Gore in terms that they’re not even using for Greene.

Ted: As someone who has scouted McKay, can you explain the top 5 interest to me? He’s 1B only with the bat and that profile isn’t great. On the mound, hasn’t he been 89-92? Is that profile really worthy of first-round consideration?
Keith Law: You skipped over the kind of hitter he’s become this year – plus hit with power, good plate discipline, super quiet approach. He hit 95 for me in February with a plus change, but last week he looked gassed and was more 89-92, yes.

DJB: Would Mickey Moniak be 1.1 in this years draft?
Keith Law: I doubt it, given the presence of two college guys who are 1-1 worthy, but I didn’t think he was the #1 guy in last year’s draft class either.

Steve: If you’re a team trying to trade with the Astros, would you rather have Martes or Tucker?
Keith Law: Tucker.

Rich: Will you be at a Regional this weekend? Super Regional next? Hope to see you in Baton Rouge
Keith Law: Nope, I don’t cover college baseball games, just the prospects, so unless something were easy for me to get to where I could see a handful of first rounders, you’ll probably never see me at a regional or super.

Johnny : do you think any of Jermiah Estrada, Garrett Mitchell, or Danner go to UCLA?
Keith Law: Probably, almost definitely, and 50/50.

Chris: Concerns about the hitch in Zack Collins swing? I feel like no one really talked about it leading up to the draft last year…
Keith Law: Yes, I think I wrote about that in March? definitely a concern.

Guest: No question just thanks for writing Smart Baseball. Just finished the audiobook. We read to be informed and entertained, and you managed both. Well done!
Keith Law: Thank you! Glad you found it entertaining – I really wanted to get that material across without making it dry.

Tim: Hi Keith. T. Trammell seems to be handling low-A ball pretty well as a 19 year old. Does he have some serious helium right now or more “we knew he was good”?
Keith Law: We knew he was good, yes, but also, it’s 46 games – you don’t see players’ values within the industry change that fast unless there’s a big underlying skill change or physical change.

Charles Bronson: Hi Keith, big fan of your writing, but whats an easy entry-level pie to start baking?
Keith Law: Blueberry is the easiest I’ve ever made. Skip the quiche, though. It’s not pie.

Evan: What’s your best estimate for when the Super Two deadline will pass? Do you think the Mets would call Amed Rosario up before it passes?
Keith Law: I wish Super Two would die, really, because it does nothing but confuse fans. And it’s not fans’ fault – it’s just a bad system. We don’t know the actual date, and we won’t know the actual date for this year until after 2020. So teams guess, based on past history. Once we get to June 15th or so, we’re almost certainly past it given previous years’ cutoffs.

Rob: Any concerns with Gleyber’s slow start in AAA?
Keith Law: He’s been there a week.

Cole: Is Chris Seise a first rounder? Seems like one of the best prep SS. Major upside in all 5 tools
Keith Law: No. Nor does he have “major upside in all 5 tools.” He can stay at short, which makes him a top 100 guy, but that’s it.

Lukas: So, publications around Atlanta have thrown the idea of trading Kemp at the deadline. With his atrocious defense, high BABIP and extremely high salary, I don’t think this is realistic. Do you have any insight on this?
Keith Law: Probably unrealistic.

Nate: What are your thoughts on small ball in youth and high school leagues?
Keith Law: Depends. Is the goal to win games? Then it might make sense, given the presence of players on those teams who just aren’t very good hitters or fielders (bunt to make the other team make an error!). Is the goal to develop players? If so, then swing the fucking bat.

Tim: “Too big for 3B” – did that scout ever watch Scott Rolen in his prime?
Keith Law: I met Scott Rolen in or near his prime. Dude could carry an 18-wheeler on his back.

ScottyD in Downingtown: Kyle Tucker just got elevated to AA and is continuing to hit well. Is it possible to see a mid-2018 arrival in Houston or would that be overly aggressive?
Keith Law: Yeah, I was pissed about that because Buies Creek comes here next weekend. He’s good, mid-2018 is not insane.

John: I wonder if you could give some advice. My adult sister was recently diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis. The doctor is optimistic that it can go into remission with a powerful drug, methotrexate. I want her to do that, because I’ve seen how much pain she’s been in and they say it’s important to catch it early. She’s reluctant because it’s such a powerful drug, apparently the same thing used for some chemo. But I think she’s also being influenced by her husband, who is a bit of a conspiracy theorist and is always talking about the drug companies influencing the medical studies. Any thoughts, including on how I can help her steer clear of her husband’s loony ideas?
Keith Law: Get her to some other doctors (real doctors, not “alternative” anything) for further opinions. I know nothing about that drug other than, as you said, it’s used for chemo. But maybe hearing it face to face from more qualified experts will help?

Jack: For a guy like Brendan McKay, how many years would he have to spend focused on pitching to lose his status as a top first baseman prospect? Does the skill go pretty quickly?
Keith Law: I would bet good money on him staying at first base for a while, rather than pitching and giving up hitting. He could do both, but if he does one thing, given how he’s worn down on the mound, I think it’ll be hitting.

Matt: What’s up w/ the Paris Accord? Why would Trump withdraw the US if it doesn’t take effect until after the 2020 election? Something about the entire thing smells fishy to me.
Keith Law: Sop to his base? Have you seen his supporters and cheerleaders celebrating this? I’d say it’s bizarre, but with an entire wing of one of our major parties demonizing science, it’s kind of par for the course.

Keith: Hi fellow Keith. I’m staying in Scottsdale in July for one night for my 17th anniversary at the end of a 5000 mile road trip . Recommendation for a restaurant pleas ?
Keith Law: I have a whole guide to Phoenix area eats right here http://klaw.me/21e74em

Rod: Where do you see Mark Vientos getting drafted? He was allegedly working out for the Braves yesterday but I don’t know if he lasts until 41
Keith Law: He might, although I think he probably goes in the 30s to a team with multiple picks.

Carlin: Read Tough Guys Don’t Dance last week and was blown away. Thanks for the suggestion, are you aware of any good noir in the same vein, beyond the obvious Chandler, Hammett, etc?
Keith Law: The Killer Inside Me, The Grifters, pop. 1280, all Jim Thompson. Double Indemnity & The Postman Always Rings Twice, both James Cain. Horace McCoy’s They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? is in a similar vein too. While not noir, I love the Nero Wolfe novels from Rex Stout, because they have such great characters.

Ben: NLE – moving forward, who would you have more confidence in, Vince Velasquez or Robert Gsellman?
Keith Law: Gsellman. Velasquez might be made of glass.

Tim: First to majors – Tyler Mahle or Luis Castillo? Both possible #3 starters?
Keith Law: Mahle more likely to start. Castillo better fastball, needs a breaking ball.

Jacque Jones: What are your thoughts on Nick Gordon after some time in the minors, compared to at draft time, etc? Should Twins fans be excited?
Keith Law: Yes. He’s a damn good player. He’ll produce, and he’ll be one of those players you want to argue is worth even more than the stats say.

John: Thoughts on Giolito this year?
Keith Law: Still undoing the delivery damage done to him last year. His stuff has ticked back up and he’s had outings where he looked more like his pre-2015 self.

James: Hey Keith. Thoroughly enjoying Smart Baseball. Mets question for you. Rosario has tore it up since being promoted to AA last year. Does he eventually entrench himself with the Lindors and Correas? Or fall short (no pun intended)?
Keith Law: I think he’s that kind of talent. His bat speed is ridiculous.

Harry: Could the Nats take Hiura, given their penchant for guys with TJ on their plates?
Keith Law: Don’t think he gets there, but along those lines, I could see them taking Schmidt or Drew Rasmussen.

Dan: It seems that the Cubs are connected to Nick Allen. What are your thoughts on that match?
Keith Law: Not at 27.

Dan: Have you seen any of Severino’s starts this year? Has he changes his mechanics at all that you think might lead to sustained success as a starter?
Keith Law: I have seen him, but can’t tell from the CF camera if the delivery is different. He did bulk up a ton, though. I saw him once on a TV screen at an airport and thought at first that was Pineda.

MikeM: Rumors are that the Yankees want Gleyber Torres to take over at 3B this year. Do you think the jump from AA to MLB will be too much for him?
Keith Law: I don’t, but what a waste of a glove to move him off short.

TD: I’m a bit of a novice when it comes to reading mystery books and looking to include some in my summer reading. Any recommendations?
Keith Law: I think Agatha Christie is considered the best for good reason: her prose is smart but very readable, her two detective characters are wonderful, and her mysteries are well-crafted. I have grown to enjoy Dorothy Sayers’ Lord Peter Wimsey novels too, although the first one (Whose Body?) is the worst.

ScottyD in Downingtown: The Philadelphia sports pundits continue to defend the lackluster play of Cameron Rupp and Tommy Joseph. They say that both will be solid major leaguers and Hoskins & Alfaro just aren’t ready yet. Do you concur?
Keith Law: I would give Hoskins a chance. Alfaro is more of a black box in that his game-calling and receiving needed work, which isn’t going to be evidence unless you go watch him a lot, but that job should be his by the summer too.

Cardinals: How would you approach the draft if you ran the Cardinals? One or two high profile talents and then go underslot with all the 5-10 round guys, or go for depth throughout 3-10?
Keith Law: They don’t have the money to do that. Just take best players available.

Chris: Doesn’t the white sox Jaren Kendall pick just scream Jared Mitchell?
Keith Law: Not in the least. Is that a racial comp I’m not getting? They are totally dissimilar players.

Chris: Speaking of Twitter, I’m surprised you kept at it that long with lawn guy, his “logic” was making my head hurt.
Keith Law: I was truly enjoying myself. I don’t normally take any pleasure in deliberately annoying people, but that was fun.

Bosa: Do you think Paul DeJong could be above average second baseman at ML level
Keith Law: I’d say average, but what I saw of his defense on the left side in the fall didn’t match reports I had from the summer.

Zihuatenejo: In this era of instant analysis how many years should a fair-minded person wait to judge a draft? Relatedly, if the 2013 draft were re-held today, how many players other than Bryant and Crawford would be taken before Aaron Judge?
Keith Law: Too soon, because the high school guys are just reaching the majors now. I don’t like even discussing a draft inside of five years, or truly evaluating one until about ten. But I will pat myself on the back for ranking Judge well above where he was drafted!

addoeh: Please rank the four main regional styles of BBQ; Carolinas, Memphis, Kansas City, and Texas.
Keith Law: Texas, KC, Memphis. We won’t even discuss that vinegary shit.

Mike: Are you still watching Orphan Black?
Keith Law: Yep, returns June 10th. I have to finish S4 though.

Amru: Were Braves doing due diligence by hosting Austin Beck for a private workout, or is there a better than average chance they take him at 5?
Keith Law: When you hear about these workouts, again, bear in mind they are totally normal. We had lots of players at workouts in Toronto – including, in 2002, a Canadian kid named Joey Votto – but it never even meant they were on our shortlists.

Papi: At the beginning of the year i traded Buxton for Dansby and Trent Clark in my dynasty league… who would have thought Clark would be the most successful piece to date
Keith Law: Buxton hit .254/.321/.380 in May. If he just does that, with his defense and speed, he’ll be a hell of a player. And I think that he’s going to be more than that.

George: How do you find all of the news stories that you post every week?
Keith Law: I read a lot. I also see lots of stuff on Twitter – I try to follow a broad mix of people from outside of baseball. I follow a few people just for science. I follow way more women on Twitter than a baseball-only feed would have. And I get some email digests from aggregators that help.

Mattey: The Mackanin extension seemed odd at the time, and looks worse now, only a month outDo you have insight on why the Phillies extended him when they did, and do think they’re regretting it by now?
Keith Law: They love him as a person, but to be honest I am not sure I’d say this year makes it look any better or worse. The team isn’t good and that’s not his fault. My issue is this: You’re hired as CEO. You walk into the office building. Sitting in the CFO’s chair is a guy in a suit. You don’t simply assume that, because he’s in that seat, that he’s the best guy for the job – or even qualified for it.

Tim From Philly: Desperate and way too early question but…any favorites yet to be 1/1 in 2018 draft? Only name that seems to get attention besides Seth Beer is Kumar Rocker. Hoping you have heard more than a future 1B and high school right-hander.
Keith Law: I saw Beer last week. That’s not what 1-1 looks like. I haven’t seen Rocker or done any work on 2018 really.

Pramit Bose: Do you think Vlad Guerrero and Bo Bichette will get promoted if they keep performing as they have? Or are there flaws in their game that don’t show up in their stat lines that need correcting before going to high A or double A?
Keith Law: I think it’s more age – they’re so young that there’s no rush, and I would probably at least let them face some opponents twice to see if anyone makes adjustments. But I’m very high on both guys.

Travis: What is it about the Shane Baz delivery that concerns you?
Keith Law: It’s that he lacks deception and I’ve had scouts say they have seen hitters square him up in the mid 90s. But I had another scout say the other day it’s a 7 fastball, 6 curve, 6 slider, and how do you say no to that? (He makes a valid point.)

Joe: What is your take on Mr. Met flipping a fan off?
Keith Law: Non-troversy. As opposed to, say, Kathy Griffin’s act, which I thought was tasteless and way out of line.

Travis: What grade would you put on Mackenzie Gore’s fastball?
Keith Law: He sits 90-93. That’s a 50, maybe 55 for a lefty.

Mickey: I just realized what a good retort to rudeness “This isn’t Twitter” is. I may have to employ that on the subway.
Keith Law: Good luck. Don’t get shiv’d.

Jake: Are you as impatient as I am for the new Arcade Fire album?
Keith Law: No. I didn’t love Reflector.

Lyle: Anthony Jimenez was not on any Mariners top prospect lists that I recall but he’s at 307/376/518 after two months in the Midwest League. Rising prospect? Anything interesting to hope for?
Keith Law: He’s 21 and striking out about 30% of the time. Old for his level with that K rate = no.

Brian: What is your opinion on AJ Preller? Being in San Diego, most national media coverage doesnt talk about the Padres much except bringing up the hiding injury issue. How has he done so far in your opinion? How long should an owner give a GM who’s doing a mass rebuild like Preller is doing before they look at a new GM?
Keith Law: Rebuild has been great so far. Ridiculous quantity of talent in that system.

Amru: Pardon my ignorance, but has Royce Lewis had any substantial time in CF? Or is it an assumption that his athleticism will make up for inexperience?
Keith Law: Don’t think he’s ever played it. He’s a bad shortstop who’s a plus runner and has shown great instincts as a baserunner, so the assumption is he’ll be able to play CF.

Dave: Hi Klaw, thanks for the chats. Guess what, the head of the EPA has admitted that global warming is due to human activities. He can’t say how much of the planet’s warming is due to humans, that’s too difficult. He also can’t say if POTUS believes what all but flat earthers believe. But progress is progress, although there’s no word on whether the administration has any plans whatsoever to try to fix or even slow global warming. I’m thinking of investing in some ocean front property in Iowa
Keith Law: Meanwhile, teachers in Florida aren’t even allowed to tell their kids about climate change, so we’re trying to raise a generation of dummies … at least down there.

Isaac: Could Ronald Acuna be a top 5 prospect by seasons end? The reports are glowing, have you had a chance to see him this season?
Keith Law: I saw him in March and wrote about him then.

Potato: Julian Merryweather has looked good and ive read that his stuff has improved. Heard much about him?
Keith Law: His stuff hasn’t changed but he’s having more success than before and doing it at higher levels – up to 95, power curveball, good change, it’s 3 at least major league average pitches, definitely a starter, not sure if that CB is the swing and miss pitch he needs.

Aaron: Does Brendan Rodgers have anything left to prove in HiA?
Keith Law: The problem is playing in Lancaster is like playing on one of Jupiter’s moons. Get him to AA where he’ll play in a real environment, even if it means he’s going to start 2018 back there. I like him quite a bit as a prospect and have always ranked him high – #1 in his draft class – but hitting stats in Lancaster are a joke.

Robert: At the time of the Luis Robert signing, you wrote that there was a consensus among your scouting sources about concerns related to his hit tool. Have you heard from any sources since then that disagree?
Keith Law: Not a one.

J.O.: Grilling chicken breasts tonight from a homemade balsamic marinade…..any side suggestions? (we are having grilled corn on the cob as well.)
Keith Law: Just stay at the grill and don’t cook them past about 155. The only thing easier to overcook on a grill than chicken breasts is fish.

Isaac: I know you haven’t been to high on Jesus Sanchez, but he seems to be showing more power. Is he a rising prospect or more hype than anything else?
Keith Law: That’s inaccurate; I’ve ranked him where he belonged. He’s more hit than power, though.

Nick: Thoughts on Lamet?
Keith Law: Discussed on San Diego radio – he has a below average changeup, and lefties have killed him everywhere he’s pitched, including so far in the majors (where they’re on his fastball because his change is ineffective).

Jay: Lots of chat about Bo Bichette lately – do you think his ‘violent swing’ will play at higher levels, or will he need to calm down a bit?
Keith Law: Not a violent swing. That’s out of date.

Tyler: Does Sheffield belong in the HOF? If so, what is keeping him out? Link to steroids, lack of 150+ game seasons, way he treated the media?
Keith Law: No defensive value. His WAR total gets wrecked by below average defense.

Matt R: Sorry if you’ve answered this question but are you planning a Cape trip this year? Less than 2 weeks til the season starts!
Keith Law: Don’t know. ESPN wants me more focused on pro stuff over the summer than amateur, which makes the Cape tough.
Keith Law: (They’re not wrong, BTW. More people are interested in pro content than draft.)

Greg: Rule 5 draft seems to be a dumpster dive, unless of course you’re talking about the Padres grabbing prospects from the Cardinals. Córdoba & Perdomo represent a nice haul–did Mozeilak make a mistake not protecting either on the 40 man roster?
Keith Law: Perdomo surprised me. Cordoba was in the freaking Appy League. It’s crazy that they even took him.

Greg: Keith- help a brother out… Is there any way to engage with or at least quickly end an argument with a close friend who is increasingly buying into climate-change denying claims? Besides ending the friendship? It’s drives me mad that the think they’re thinking critically by not accepting what they’re told and questioning everything, but in reality they’re just ignoring the vast majority of scientists.
Keith Law: I’ve had friends try anti- or pseudoscience bullshit on me. I give them facts. If they don’t want to be friends after that, it’s fine with me. I had someone recently try to tell me that celiac is the result of how we breed wheat in this country and that people with celiac can eat bread in Europe, which is … just very, very wrong. And I said so. I don’t think it went over well.

Sam: What did you think of Jose Ramirez when he was younger? I previously hadn’t thought too much of him, but his run of success is getting to be too long for it to be a fluke.
Keith Law: He’s legit. I had him just off the top 100 one year, highest I ever put him, and then I think he was ineligible the following year because of at bats. I’m fully on board. He was on my top 25 under 25 last month.

Bruce: Jake Gatewood has had a nice season so far making a bit more contact and walking more. What are your thoughts on his future?
Keith Law: Sounds like he’s seeing the ball for the first time in a while thanks to eye (LASIK?) surgery. That’s a good explanation for a massive stat change like that. I’m buying.

Jake: Just ate at Snooze in San Diego. Now I’m taking a nap
Keith Law: Very solid 55 for me. Mission is better, but Snooze is acceptable.

Steve: I know he’s not tooled up, but Austin Slater just keeps hitting. Think he’s a long term solution for SF?
Keith Law: More a short-term solution than long-term. But I like him a little as a plug for their leaking LF situation.

Ross: I know the bigger story on Jake Gatewood was finding out he needed contacts, but there was also talk he made some swing changes. Have you heard anything about them?
Keith Law: I guess it was contacts, not LASIK. Don’t think he’s made swing changes.

Elton: Did you like the new season of Master of None?
Keith Law: Haven’t watched any of it. Sort of got some other stuff going on right now…

Matty D – SF: 1st KLaw thanks for doing the chats they’re amazing. 2nd Does Puig need the proverbial change of scenery? And when are you coming to the Bay for a book signing? Smart Baseball (I’m finally getting to it) is phenomenal.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. Berkeley 7/19 at Books Inc.

Cal: What would Vlad jr have to do over the next year or so to get called up by the Jays in 2018?
Keith Law: He’s 18 in low-A. How about 2019?

Brian: Hunter Renfroe had 15 BBs in May and his OPS was .868. How long before it is safe to say he has made an adjustment that has legs?
Keith Law: About 300 more PA, roughly. Also struck out 30 times in ~100 PA.

Peeeeete: We don’t have a lot of hot seasons here in Iowa, but we’re all excited about Jake Adams. What’s the scouting report on Adams?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t get too excited. Not a top 100 guy; 6′ 250 pound 1b/dh with some power but no wood bat experience.

CharleyT648: SP Jordan Humpreys
Keith Law: Samoans! Do the Humprey Hump.

Jim: Have you seen Gore in person this year? Any chance he could go at 1?
Keith Law: No. That’s my big miss on seeing guys this spring (of those I could reasonably have seen). Book release & personal issues kept me home more. He is in the mix at 1.

Denny Hocking: Anything interesting rumor-wise around the Twins since you blessed us with your last mock?
Keith Law: Same names. I don’t expect much to change until teams get in their draft rooms this weekend.

Dallas: Could Royce Lewis slip out of the top 10 ? Let’s say Wright/Greene/Gore/Mckay go 1st 4 picks; Atl goes pitching again; Oak/Ari go college; Boras scares Phi/Mil/LAA/CWS/Pit/Mia; could he fall to Houston at 15 and get top draft money there?
Keith Law: This is very, very silly.

Erich: whos hot start do you believe is more sustainable? Justin Smoak or Yonder Alonso? Both look like like completely different players this year.
Keith Law: Alonso. But you’re damn right I’m enjoying Smoak’s season.

Arch Stanton: Project Schwarber’s career: better or worse than Matt Stairs?
Keith Law: Better. Kid can hit. Just be patient. They can’t all be Michael Conforto.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions, for buying Smart Baseball, and for quote-tweeting me while letting me respond to you. I will chat again late next week, and my next mock will be June 11th, the day before the draft. I’ll also have a top 100 ranking up on Wednesday. Enjoy your weekends!

My annual ranking of the top 25 players under 25 is now up for Insiders.

Also, just your regular reminder to go buy my book Smart Baseball, out now from HarperCollins!

Keith Law: Klawchat, top of the food chain.

Phil: What is your quick, reasoned, non-hyperbolic assessment of Jeter’s career?
Keith Law: Great player, Hall of Famer, not the Second Coming.

Bertil: What should Atlanta do with Swanson?
Keith Law: Play him every day. I assume this was a question about sending him down or something, but that would be pointless and possibly harmful. Just play him every day this year and be patient.

Tim: Castro and Hicks. Mirages or is there something real going on with both that should give the Yankees long term hope? Castro has fooled us all before after all..
Keith Law: I’m a little more bullish on Hicks, since he’s shown flashes of all of this before, just never for long enough to matter – and he’s getting consistent playing time for the first time in a while.

Squire: Are the Phillies connected to anyone else at #8 other than Shane Baz?
Keith Law: Trevor Rogers. Other HS arms, but I’ve also heard that they’re not specifically focused on that category.

Ben: Does Padres AAA reliever Phil Maton have a future in a big league bullpen?
Keith Law: Yes. Very high spin-rate fastball.

Kieth’s Friend: Any tips on cooking an omelette? I bet if you saw mine you would run away
Keith Law: Without knowing what you’re doing, I’ll blindly suggest lowering the heat.

John: Leading up to draft day, Hunter Greene was a consensus 1/2. No win some mocks I’m seeing him slip down to the Padres at 3. Whats the cause of this and what are the odds it actually happens?
Keith Law: Nah, he was never consensus 1 or 2. He’s the consensus number one talent. There was always a chance that he’d go below that, just like Jason Groome was (IMO) the #2 talent last year and went 12th. Well, not just like that, because Groome slid on some makeup concerns, while Greene, if he goes 3, hasn’t exactly “slid” and also would buck history if he goes 1 overall because no HS RHP has ever gone there.

Tim: Any thoughts on the Dodgers thought process with Bellinger? Seems like with Gonzalez out, playing him at 1st would improve the defense pretty significantly over him in left with Utley at first. Have seen several misplayed balls over at 1st by Utley/Van Slyke.
Keith Law: I think they’re temporarily prioritizing contract (AG is signed through next year for too much money) over the best alignment of players (Bellinger at 1b, AG on the bench). If they get everyone healthy and play AG at first and Bellinger in left, then I think you’d have cause for complaint.

Michael: Proper punishment for Pillar?
Keith Law: Five game suspension, roughly.

Justin: What your take on German Marquez?
Keith Law: Two-pitch guy. Can’t see him staying a starter like that. Speaking of which, he’s pitching like a mile away from me at the moment.

Tim: What do you make of TJ Rivera?
Keith Law: Just a bench guy, if that.

Brandon Johnson : Thinking long term, do Alex Verdugo and Willie Calhoun have more value to the Dodgers in LA or as trade bait?
Keith Law: I don’t see where Calhoun ever plays for them because he has no position. Verdugo has a very good chance to be a star or at least an above average regular, so I wouldn’t rush to put him in a deal, but Calhoun has more value in trade than he can ever have for the Dodgers.

Dane: Will Devers be in Boston before Sept callups?
Keith Law: I would have said no shot in March, but now it seems like that might happen.

Michael: Any thoughts on what the issue is with JP Crawford? SSS? Or do you think there is real concern regarding his ability to play against real competition?
Keith Law: I’ve had on and off but very trivial concerns about his effort level in the past, like he was coasting on ability but was so much better than everyone else that it didn’t matter. And I’ve heard he’s not playing hard all the time now, either. So is that it? Or is he actually overmatched? I find the latter hard to believe.

Tommy Wright: Luis Robert – how high will he be in your top 100 and do my Padres have a shot at him?
Keith Law: I don’t know if he’ll be on it at all. Every team has a shot at him unless they’re locked out of the international market for this period.

Ben: Headed to Nashville next weekend…going to Catbird Seat. Any other suggestions?
Keith Law: Husk, City House, Two Ten Jack, 404 Kitchen, Rolf & Daughters, Mas Tacos, the Pharmacy, Pinewood Social.

John: How do you feel about strawberry-rhubarb pie?
Keith Law: Done right, it’s an 80.

ExExpos: Any 2018 draft guys that we should keep an eye on next year? Like Seth Beer? Or way too early?
Keith Law: Beer’s on the list, definitely, but I think it’s worth remembering that no one is truly bearing down on 2018 kids right now. They all look better from a distance; once this year’s draft is over, they’ll get more than a cursory look.

Sean: Is Saunders’ Lincoln in the Bardo on your to be read list? I’m halfway through it and find it a very interesting and quick read.
Keith Law: It’s a maybe. Reviews are great, I liked Saunders’ short stories, not sure how much the subject appeals.

Ralph: Most likely to be used by Cubs in a trade for a SP- Schwarber, Baez, Happ?
Keith Law: I’m sure they’d prefer to use Baez, but teams will start the ask with Eloy and Happ.

Mike: How late do you think you’ll be at Moon Palace Books tonight?
Keith Law: I think the talk is an hour or so (it’s me and two other authors), and then I’ll sign and chat. The event in Atlanta ran about two hours, so I’d bank on that. I don’t know when Moon Palace closes.

Roger: Will there ever come a day where an SP throws 275-300 innings again?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. And I say that with 99% confidence.

Jack: Thoughts on Marcus Wilson slaughtering the Midwest League?
Keith Law: Great to see, and I think it’s fair to say he’s reestablished some value already, but he also played a month there last year so while he’s not truly repeating the level, I’m at least trying not to get too far ahead of myself. I think this is probably a real step forward, but let’s see him carry it longer.

Steve: Vladdy Jr. is turning heads, but Bo Bichette is ripping the ball too. Any chance BB sticks at short in the majors? What’s his offensive ceiling?
Keith Law: Zero chance he sticks at short, but I loved his bat in the draft (and the pick) and I think he’s at least a 55 overall at 2b. Good thing for the Jays, too, since JB Woodman has been a disaster.

Cory: Please tell me the Twins will take Wright #1. And, as a Minnesotan, any chance at all that Sam Carlson falls to their pick at #35? I have my doubts.
Keith Law: Nonzero chance of Carlson falling, just because there are too many HS arms for them all to go in the first round, and then I think Carlson gets an overslot deal in the sandwich. Couldn’t tell you who they will take; I think it’s Wright, McKay, or Greene.

PhillyJake: Why is Alen Hanson still on the Pirates roster?
Keith Law: Because he’s out of options.

Seany: Any Rumblings on who the A’s may be high on for the draft?
Keith Law: Nothing new on that since my last mock.

Joe: What’s your opinion on Mueller being appointed to the special counsel
Keith Law: People who know about these things seem unanimous in their praise of him and the move, I have nothing I could possibly add to that.

Johnny O: What’s the last non-fiction book you read? I know you did a NF top 100 years ago but you haven’t posted a review of a NF book in forever.
Keith Law: I posted a review of The End of Ownership last week, and reviewed the excellent I Contain Multitudes a few weeks before that.

crawdaddy: Do you think Aaron Judge can be the Yankees long-term answer in RF.
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s any question he is.

Jason in Detroit: Keith, Beau Burrows is having a nice season. Too soon to say or is he sort of back on track?
Keith Law: I don’t think he was off track, but the main concern from last year, the lack of a good third pitch to get LHB out, remains (I just checked his platoon splits, and, yep, still a wide gap).

Jack: Who would perform best in MLB right now if Yankees needed another OF, Fowler or Frazier?
Keith Law: I’d call up Fowler over Frazier today.

Justin: Thanks for the chats. Assuming the Pirates continue to be “meh,” or worse, what would be the best path forward? Deal Cole for a trade deadline premium price, and then spend on new pitching in the offseason? stand mostly pat (while dealing… say… Watson)? I don’t feel like they need a full rebuild.
Keith Law: Don’t see them spending on new pitching – free agent pitching has largely gotten out of the reach of the lowest-payroll teams – but trading Watson makes sense for sure, and trading Cole if healthy and likely to get a huge return would be smart for the long term even if painful for 2017.

Tracy: Any Dickens’ recommendations?
Keith Law: I loved The Pickwick Papers, and liked Bleak House although its length may scare some folks off.

Michael: Any concerns about Trea Turner or still a SSS
Keith Law: Nah, he’ll be fine.

Sloth: Does David Peterson sneak into the first round? What’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: I think I had him going 15th or 16th in the mock, and I’ve heard him as high as Miami’s pick at 14. Ceiling is a 3, reasonable ceiling a 4.

Tom: Walker Buehler. 1.4 FIP so far in A+/AA seems good. Any chance we see a peak out of the bullpen this year, or will his innings cap prevent it?
Keith Law: They could manage him in a way that gets him to the majors this year, but they’d have to decide that sooner rather than later.

Jim: What have you heard about Matt Tabor? Potential 2nd rounder?
Keith Law: Up to 95 with bad delivery. Was told not a top 100 guy.

Ben: Thoughts on Sierra after seeing him for a stint with the Cards?
Keith Law: Nothing new. Plus run, plus field, will eventually be above average hitter with below average power. I wouldn’t judge him differently on performance in 30 at bats.

Gregory: With Freddie Freeman now out, and the season about to be lost, should the Braves start the parade of prospects to MLB?
Keith Law: Didn’t they already start that? Guys will come up when they’re ready, but I don’t think you’ll see any elite guys like Fried (or Acuna, if at all) till after the ASB.

Justin: Hearing anything new on the Luis Robert front?
Keith Law: I do not follow that market at all.

Steve: Have you heard anything about Duplantier this season? Couldn’t ask for better results thus far and he’s been healthy. Does he have a chance to be a top 100 guy come the end of the season?
Keith Law: Heard in spring training he looked great and felt completely healthy again; I thought he was the one pick they made last year that could really explode for them this season, because he might have been a first rounder if he had a clean medical and weren’t at Rice. Teams really do discount Rice pitchers given their injury history, as they should. Until Wayne Graham is gone, that should be the draft room norm.

Jim: Tristen Lutz and Jacob Pearson, both top 100 proepects?
Keith Law: Pearson was on my draft top 50, no? Lutz I don’t think so but I haven’t done a full 100 yet.

Wendy: Any interest in being a teams GM?
Keith Law: I’ve never been offered that job, so this is an academic question, but I don’t think I’d take such a drastic change in my work/life balance. I wouldn’t like it, and it would be cruel to do that to my family.

Andy: Enjoying Smart Baseball on Kindle. I’m curious, have all MLB scouting departments fully embraced Sabermetrics or do any still rely on the traditional baseball card statistics and metrics?
Keith Law: Thank you! All 30 MLB teams have full-fledged analytics departments; they vary in how much they integrate that work into other areas.

Matt: In your “just missed” column, you described Zimmer as a possible 20/20 guy. Do you think he has the speed to steal 30+ in the bigs like he has in the minors each year?
Keith Law: Gotta get on base at a decent clip for that, and he has really never hit LHP (aside from a tiny sample this year in AAA), which may mean he’s a platoon guy.

Marco: Is Clarke Thomas a Dodger profile for the first round? They selected Buehler two years ago, I don’t see that so unlikely.
Keith Law: Schmidt? I think that’s very unlikely. Buehler was a way better prospect pre-injury than Schmidt.

Steve: Erick Fedde was moved to the pen. Is he a future starter or reliever to you?
Keith Law: I thought he was maybe 60/40 reliever. Saw him last week, still lacks an average changeup. Great arm, definite big leaguer, maybe he could still fake it enough to start because the fastball and slider both flash plus. But I feel extremely confident he’ll be a good reliever.

Gerard: Favorite Melvins’ recording?
Keith Law: Stoner Witch. Is there another answer?

Zihuatenejo: Any advice on finding time to read? I was a voracious reader in my teens and twenties, but as a busy adult I can’t seem to find the time to settle down with a book anymore.
Keith Law: Two suggestions. One is finding hidden moments where you’re otherwise not doing anything – or screwing around on your phone – like waiting in line at stores or waiting for appointments or riding the bus or subway. I read a ton in those places. The other is choosing to dedicate some time every night to reading, even if it’s just 20 minutes. I find that it’s extremely calming, in addition to the pure pleasure I derive from reading.

Parker: Who surprised you more about their stardom from where they were in the minor leagues. AJ Pollock or Paul Goldschmidt?
Keith Law: Goldschmidt. Pollock was a first rounder. Goldschmidt was a lower round pick whom pro scouts weren’t even that high on – I have notes from when he was in the minors from pro scouts who saw him and called him an “up and down guy” or a “platoon 1b.”

Brian: What’s Christin Stewart’s MLB potential?
Keith Law: Solid average everyday LF with plus power and minus defense.

Jean: Are you still a big fan of Jordan Hicks? He has an underwhelming strikeout per 9 right now for a guy that hits 100 mph. Is he more stuff then results right now because of his age?
Keith Law: Yes, still a big fan. Stuff is there, but he’s not just young but inexperienced.
Keith Law: Also, it’s 35 innings.

Theo: Delvin Perez for Brad Hand who says “no”?
Keith Law: The Cardinals are not giving up last year’s first rounder for a guy who was just waived a few months ago.

Parker: how did Nolan Arenado go from a bad defender to pure amazing?
Keith Law: I’ve never delved into the full story but the hints I’ve gotten over the years are that the kid worked his ass off and the Rockies coaches did an amazing job with his footwork and reads. He was a legit 45 defender (or below) in the AFL, and a year later he’s a Gold Glover.

Elliott: Do you sear your meatballs or drop them in the sauce with a covered lid?
Keith Law: Sear and then braise in the sauce.

Andy: Assuming Sandy finally gets it and lets him play everyday, can Conforto maintain this level of production, or do you expect some natural regression ahead?
Keith Law: I think Conforto is a star. He has a .393 OBP, which I think is entirely sustainable for him, but is on pace for 45 HR with a .638 SLG, which I think is not.

Keith: Will Albert Abreu eventually be moved to pen or can he stick in rotation?
Keith Law: More likely to the pen, but absolutely let him start for now and the near future. He could become a starter.

Chad: A question I wanted to ask you in Atlanta on Tuesday: With the caveat that it’s seven weeks in, most of the Braves top 20 prospects have met or exceeded expectations despite being aggressively promoted. Plus, Demeritte’s and Jackson’s flaws look legitimately improved. Credit to Clark and Bridges’ scouts, player development, luck? All of the above? After Freddie’s injury, my focus is now pretty one-directional.
Keith Law: Also pro scouts, and the front office’s aggressiveness. It has been a tremendous year so far on their farm.
Keith Law: Credit everyone there except Kiley. We know he’s just there for the food.

Danny: Would you deal Tommy Joseph to a contender at the deadline and call up Hoskins? He seems legit, no?
Keith Law: I think Hoskins is legit, but what would a contender do with Joseph?

Jose: Is Josh Ockimey improving his outlook at all? I am hoping he can be a power hitting 1b in the next 3-4 years.
Keith Law: Yes – remember he was on fire till about mid-July last year and then absolutely stunk afterwards. I asked, and was told he wasn’t hurt, but he ran out of steam. So I guess I believe this is real but he has to show he can hit all season, not for half a year.

Seath: Could you see Tyler Jay working the bullpen in the Majors and transition to the rotation eventually (2-3 years)? Or do you think the move is permanent?
Keith Law: I got the sense this was a permanent move but I believed he could develop as a starter and would love to see them keep the door open for him.

John: If the Twins keep this up through the All Star break should they stand pat or flip Dozier and Santana for younger pieces to put around the young core?
Keith Law: I do not believe they’re going to keep this up till the ASB and they’d be remiss in failing to get value for their older players.

Theo: if the MLB players association were the Beatles what would the NFL players association be? My guess would be a tone deaf rabbit trying to play the banjo.
Keith Law: The NFLPA can’t comment because they’re currently fetching Goodell’s dry cleaning.

Marcus: You mention Fried as an elite guy, no concerns over him scuffling a bit so far?
Keith Law: Obviously not.

Ben: What are the cubs doing with Jose Albertos? Is he hurt? Why hasn’t he started in the minors? Still see him with front of the line potential?
Keith Law: They claimed a minor injury last year, and of course he’s got no innings under his belt, so it’s not like he can go out and pitch a full year.

Mark: Jacob Gatewood has already walked more this year at a higher level than all of last year. Is this a legit change or are we still in SSS territory?
Keith Law: He got LASIK, no? The story – not that I could dispute this in any way – is that he can see the ball properly for the first time in years. Works for me.

Jesse: How soon before Rosario is up? With the season lost, might the Mets be better off keeping him at triple-A all season?
Keith Law: How would that make them better off, exactly?

Carter: What to make of Carson Fulmers AAA numbers he doesn’t seem to be missing bats anymore.
Keith Law: I’ve said since he was a college sophomore that he’s a reliever. He can’t command his fastball well enough with that delivery, and he got college hitters out too often on breaking stuff out of the zone.

Kevin: Kyle Funkhouser just got a promotion to high A. Think he has a future of 2-3 or is that too bullish?
Keith Law: I’ll buy that. He dominated low-A on stuff, and he was way too old/experienced for the level. Now he gets a real test.

Mike: Thanks, Keith. Hopefully my stats class gets out early. Moon Palace closes at 8 according to their website – for others who might want to know.
Keith Law: Thank you. It starts at 6:30, and I’ll certainly try to stay to accommodate everyone. I signed the books of everyone who stayed on Tuesday.

Tyler: I admit I overreacted when I saw Judge wasn’t on your 25 under 25 list. Had his birthday not been 3 weeks ago, roughly what range would he have fallen in? (Also, Judge’s age makes you realize how everyone has different time tables of developing their talent.)
Keith Law: I didn’t consider anyone who didn’t qualify – once I include one guy who’s 25, I’d have to include or at least consider them all, and then the whole list is kaput. But yes, he did develop on a different path, and credit the Yankees for how they handled him.

Chris: Will Kyle Tucker be a top 10 prospect at years end he is killing it. Has he changed anything or just a body maturing
Keith Law: Great hitter. Not likely to be a top 10 prospect as a corner OF.

JD: is the political chaos as bad for your mental health as it is for us in DC, or does it not take up a big part of your mindspace?
Keith Law: It’s impossible to avoid this stuff if you’re online as much as I am. I’m happy with chaos if it slows the implementation of dangerous policies. This administration hasn’t given me any reason to think they have pro-growth economic policies coming.

Theo: Renfroe has suddenly started walking, did someone say “you shouldn’t swing at balls”? What would go into getting him to make this adjustment?
Keith Law: It’s been a week. That’s not necessarily an adjustment; guys who rarely walk can still have a seven-game stretch where they draw seven walks without any material change in their games.

Bob: The thing that boggles my mind is that though every team has an analytic department and most teams seem to use it in picking players, there are still so many managers that don’t seem to be on the same page.
Keith Law: Same. How guys like Scioscia and Collins have infinite job security – thanks to their owners – in the face of industry upheaval just boggles my mind. For everyone else, it’s evolve or die.

Larry David: How important is it for Triston McKenzie to pack on like, 50 pounds and how much can that mess with a guys mechanics?
Keith Law: Doubt he’s got room for 50 pounds, but he could gain 20 naturally over the next few years. He doesn’t really need velocity, but the prevailing belief is that size equals durability and if that’s true (I don’t know that it is) then it would be very important because he has to walk around storm grates.

John: Are you excited about Daniel Brito at all? He is small, but seems to have a useful tool set. Any chance he is better than a utility player down the line?
Keith Law: Oh I think he’s got a good chance to be a lot better than a UT. He’s so young his range of outcomes is high but he has star potential.

Jason: Heard of the band Temples? You should check em out.
Keith Law: Yep, at least two of their songs have made my monthly playlists, and one was on an annual top 100.

Ruth Bader: Any thoughts on the Cornell passing? Were you a fan of any of his music or appreciative of his versatile voice tool?
Keith Law: Loved, loved, loved Soundgarden, especially Louder than Love and Badmotorfinger. I remember an early interview with Cornell, maybe around 1991, where he cited Kafka, Camus, and Celine as influences on his lyrics. And while they were called grunge because they were Seattle-based and contemporaries of grunge acts, their music was quite progressive until Down on the Upside. I know their best output was behind them, but what a huge loss nonetheless. If you’re in the US and you need help, the national suicide prevention lifeline is 1-800-273-8255 and someone is there 24 hours a day.

addoeh: Any chance in the future that Statcast is used to determine errors in place of some dude in the press box? If say a fielder had a high percentage chance (say 90%) to make a play and doesn’t, they’d get an error.
Keith Law: We can only hope. Or just kill the error completely.

Jon : I know you’ve questioned the process behind the Craig Counsell hiring. But he’s also the only Brewer manager who has never had me pulling my hair out with stupid decision making. Can we say the process was flawed but result was good?
Keith Law: That can certainly happen.

Jason: Would Sixto Sanchez be a top 100 prospect for you if the rankings were redone?
Keith Law: No.

Tracy: Thanks a lot for sharing your story about your recent struggles with anxiety and dealing with medication. Like any other disorder, it has to be dealt with regularly and it never completely goes away. Hopefully, for those who also struggle with anxiety, they were able to take some measure of solace from your story. Thanks, Keith.
Keith Law: I’ve gotten a lot of responses from readers to that newsletter edition, more than anything else I’ve sent out, and I apologize for not getting back to everyone yet. But I saw all your notes and am thankful for everyone’s concern and well wishes, and glad I could do some good for those of you facing the same kind of mental illness issues.

Nate: Do you have any advice for a current college student who has aspirations to work in a baseball operations department from the analytics side? Thanks
Keith Law: Learn to code. Study topics relevant to big data, like machine learning and signal processing.

Nick: Mark Appel had one of the worst innings I’ve ever seen today. Struggled all year. Org guy or is there still hope for some value?
Keith Law: Stuff is still good, results are atrocious. Can’t pitch from the stretch at all. I think you have to move him to the bullpen to try to hit reset, but guys in the bullpen pitch with runners on base too. Hate to give up on a healthy arm with stuff, but at some point he has to show he can miss more bats and find a way to pitch with men on.

Moltar: Going to Philly for a long weekend, any eat/drinks recommendations?
Keith Law: High St on Market, Dizengoff, Barbuzzo, High Street on Market, Pizzeria Vetri, Pizzeria Stella, Osteria. There are some great high-end places like Vernick and Zahav but it can be extremely difficult to get a table there – I tried to get into Zahav for my anniversary, which is in mid-June, and they had nothing even though I called over a month ahead.

Troy: Keith, what is going on with Lucas Erceg? He was hitting just .211 the other day but less than a 20% strikeout rate. Just bad luck or something more? Also, Corey Ray starting to hit more!
Keith Law: It’s mid-May, and the minors have played a lot fewer games than the majors have. Don’t get too worried about players we knew were good, who were good last year, but haven’t performed yet.

Nate (Seattle): For players under suspension (such as Brickford or S Marte), what kind of contact can they have with their team? Do they get sent to Arz/Florida for extended spring training type workouts?
Keith Law: I believe they can work out in extended, but TBH I’m not really sure what the restrictions are.

Zach: I’m disappointed I can’t make it to Moon Palace tonight, I’m sure you’ll have a good turnout. Peace Coffee around the corner will help get you through, too. What places will you be dining at while in town?
Keith Law: Thank you – I’m excited to meet everyone. I’ll probably just have one dinner with my friend Evon, who lives in the area, but I’m not sure what the plan is. And then tomorrow I’ll get breakfast and go to Dogwood for coffee.

Ken: Just wanted to say thanks for your newsletter. I’m stable on medication for OCD and anxiety, and have been for a few years, but I always want to be careful not to take it for granted, or think I can’t have a rebound.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I took it for granted.

Chris: Is health and stature the knock on Cease? Does he have the durability to be a true ace
Keith Law: Stuff isn’t quite what it was in HS, and I think the FB plays down. I do like him, just maybe not what we thought he’d be.

Bob: In general, should guys who project to be very good relief pitchers start to specialize in the minor leagues or should they start to get in the innings? After all, their development is a higher priority than wins at that level.
Keith Law: I’m fine with starting those guys so they work on developing secondary stuff and pitch on a regular schedule.

Brett: Did you make it to Staplehouse while in Atlanta?
Keith Law: No, I ate at Cakes & Ale in Decatur, within walking distance of the venue. And the meal was spectacular.

Eric: Khalil Lee doesn’t have a great average in the minors, but his OB%, homeruns and SB look really encouraging. Have you hear anything about him?
Keith Law: He’s young for low-A, so it is encouraging, but he’s striking out a ton and the majority of scouts I know who saw him in HS had questions about the hit tool.

Santos: By career wRC+ Votto has the 7th best mark in baseball history, and is 14th on the list (lots of ties). It could be argued that he is a top 14 hitter in all of baseball history. Remember when people wanted him to change his approach a few years ago? RBIs are a hell of a drug.
Keith Law: By people, you mean Marty Brennaman, right?

Jeremy: Also Tim Tebow on cover of baseball america. They should know better over there right?
Keith Law: Gotta sell papers! The Tebow scouting piece I wrote in Arizona got huge traffic numbers. I wouldn’t revisit that topic because then I’d be pandering, but the reality is that sometimes a washed-up non-prospect moves the needle.

Mary: Will Flaherty be close to top 100 by midseason?
Keith Law: He was on my top 100 this past offseason, and of course would still be on it.

Brett: Keith, when ranking prospects how much do you factor in the ability to make adjustments? A lot has been made of Aaron Judge’s ability to improve once he gets comfortable with a level and he’s certainly made positive changes on his stance and laying off pitches he swung at when he was first called up last year.
Keith Law: That’s always in there and I cited it specifically when writing about Judge.

Mickey: Will you be going to Changing Hands in Phoenix or Tempe anytime soon for a signing?
Keith Law: I think I’ll do one there in October when I’m out for fall league – I’ve discussed it with Changing Hands and they’re game, but we haven’t fixed a date yet.

Jack Law: I thought Allen Cordoba would log a few dozen PA and be terrible. Is he doing better than you thought?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

John: Too bad you can’t find time to stop by the Twins broadcast booth. They seem to spend half their time talking about errors, batting average, and the virtue of sacrificing runners over.
Keith Law: In Smart Baseball I mention the irony of Bert Blyleven, who is only a Hall of Famer because of sabermetrics and the lobbying of people in the sabermetrics community, hating sabermetrics.

Mike: Of the HS outfielders potentially at the top of the draft – Royce Lewis, Austin Beck, Jordon Adell – who do you think has the best hit tool now and hit tool potential?
Keith Law: Lewis now & potential. Adell probably has the highest overall ceiling, though; I think he’s the best athlete of the three by a long shot.

Pop: Love the book! Is there anything I/We here in Austin could do to get you down here for a signing?
Keith Law: I’ll end with this even though there a lot of great questions in the queue – I have to get a move on here. If you want me to do a signing in your city, it has to come from a venue there (usually an independent bookstore) that asks HarperCollins. If I can work it into my schedule – I’m in MSP for ESPN, and doubling up with the signing – we’ll work to make it happen. But the inquiry has to come from the store or, as with Atlanta, a venue where I can do a talk or Q&A or whatever. I’m definitely doing signings in Toronto (6/26), Miami (7/8), and Harrisburg (7/15), tentatively in Brooklyn, Indianapolis (GenCon), Phoenix (October/AFL), and Philly (November, PAX Unplugged). I’m happy to do more; Tuesday night was fun, and while I admit to some raised anxiety, it went great and the readers were all great to talk to afterwards. And I didn’t even share the best story of all – maybe in the next newsletter.
Keith Law: Thank you all for all of your questions, for reading, and for al the kind words on the book and on my last newsletter. I am planning to go to Louisville next week for the ACC tournament and may have to move or skip the chat, so please stay tuned.