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Keith Law: Take one for the team; you’re a cog in the machine. It’s Klawchat.

Dr. Bob: Hey there, Keith. The NL ROY was obvious. I was curious about your second and third place votes since they went against the grain of other voters. Not a complaint. Can you educate us as to your reasons?
Keith Law: I was floored to see all the votes for Josh Bell – a fine player, but worth under a win because 1) he’s a first baseman and 2) he’s a *terrible* first baseman. It’s 2017; we know position matters and we know defense matters. I’m not saying my ballot was ‘right,’ but Margot was clearly worth more than Bell, thanks to defense/position, and he’s over a year younger to boot. Hoskins was worth more than Bell too, and there you’ve got the direct positional comparison. There was a clear #1, and there wasn’t really anyone in the NL who was a clear #2, or someone you’d say “well, if Bellinger hadn’t won, this guy would have probably won it.” But the downballot totals didn’t make much sense to me.

Nick: Turkey question: How would you approach seasoning a turkey that’s been dry brined and spatchcocked? I’m thinking unsalted herb butter during the cooking process?
Keith Law: I cook it at high temp with nothing else on it (just put water in the roasting pan so it doesn’t smoke), then leave seasoning to the gravy. At 425-450 I’d be concerned about burning any butter on or in the bird.

Casey: Do the Cardinals go with Paul DeJong as their opening day starter at SS? If so what are the chances he’s an average regular there?
Keith Law: I’m fairly sure they will; I’d probably say 33% chance.

Nick: Do you podcast often? If so, what are you’re favorites (I’m big on Radiolab)?
Keith Law: Grierson & Leitch’s movie podcast; The Hidden Brain; Joe Sheehan’s podcast. That’s it right now. I always listen while doing something else – driving, mowing, cooking/cleaning.

Casey: Which Cardinals SP prospect has the highest ceiling…Hicks or Alcantara?
Keith Law: Hicks.

Adam: Thoughts on the Anthoupolos hire in ATL? Did you work with him in Toronto?
Keith Law: I did, for 2+ years, and remain a huge fan. I think it was a perfect hire, someone with a great track record, lots of respect around the industry, and a philosophy that should dovetail well with their existing amateur scouting practices. They made the best of a terrible situation.

Eric: By Monday, we’ll find out if Tony Clark wants to toss a monkeywrench into Ohtani’s plans or not. Predict for us – will a posting agreement be reached?
Keith Law: I’ll predict yes, but if this deal doesn’t pay Ohtani fairly, I’d rather the answer be no. Why let the Yankees (for example) pay $5 million for a player worth $25 million-plus a year when they can clearly afford it.

Ben: Thoughts on Vieira going to the Sox?
Keith Law: Seen him 3x. 98-102 with well below average command and no average second pitch. Have seen a CB (awful) and slider (below average). Big arm strength guy. Fine pickup for international money, but high chance he never produces any value in the majors given the command issues.

Adam: So what’s the story on Andres Munoz? Are we looking at a guy with potential to be a high-leverage reliever/ future “closer?”
Keith Law: The Padres’ teenager? Yes, that’s the most likely outcome. Very hard to see him ever becoming a starter.

Dan: Will it be Stanton/Altuve tonight?
Keith Law: That’s my expectation.

Dana: Looks like Gleyber will compete for 3B and Didi won’t be traded. Time for the Yanks to extend Didi?
Keith Law: I’ve said before I think this wastes Gleyber’s defensive value.

Adam: How many picks have to work out for a draft class to be a success? Or is it more about nailing 1 superstar than a handful of role players?
Keith Law: If you get a superstar, it’s hard for anyone to argue it was a bad class … but I think any class should be judged in the context of both the picks a team had and the caliber of the class overall. So the Rays’ 2011 class, with 7 picks in the first ~80 or so, would be judged against a higher standard than a draft where a team didn’t pick until round 2 or 3.

Adam: If you ever get a Manager of the Year vote, what basis would you use to decide who you’ll vote for?
Keith Law: I had one once. I called a bunch of GMs and other front office folks in the league and asked what they thought. I don’t think there are valid, objective criteria for that award. “They won more games than we thought they would” is a terrible proxy.

Jim: Which of the Cardinals 7 or so outfielders do you see most likely to get dealt?
Keith Law: Feels like Grichuk, Mercado, O’Neill could all be available. Wonder if they’d sell low on Piscotty; I wouldn’t. I’ve always believed he could hit.

Alex: Do you believe Stanton will actually get traded? If so, who would you guess it would be to?
Keith Law: I have said for months I think it’s unlikely – that is an enormous contract with huge risk given his injury history.

Jack: Ohtani have ace potential? 3-4 plus pitches?
Keith Law: He’s a #1 starter here.

Perry: If you’re not doing a write-up, can you give us your thoughts on the Ryon Healy trade?
Keith Law: (yawn)

Juwan: How do you view the Robles v Acuna debate (and by debate I mean petty squabbling between their respective fan bases)? They both look like future stars, do you view one more highly than the other?
Keith Law: I’ll have to put one over the other when I rank prospects in January. There are no ties.

Carlo: What role do you think Luiz Gohara ultimately fills? Thanks!
Keith Law: Starter.

Nelson: What do you hope to acheive by responding to tweets like Aubrey Huff’s? You know that theres no chance youll make any impression on him, right?
Keith Law: I had no intention or expectation of changing his mind. I want to provide a factual rejoinder for any other readers who might see his tweets. If you don’t fight ignorance or falsehoods, they spread.

Alex A: So there are rumors that the Braves are going to lose prospects. I personally don’t believe Maitan will be one of them but what do you think? If you had to put a percentage chance on it, what would it be?
Keith Law: From what I heard this summer, losing Maitan wouldn’t be the devastating blow it might have seemed a year ago. As for what will happen, it really depends on what the infractions were, and I really have no idea what gossip to believe any more. Earlier this week, I had one source tell me he heard the infractions were deep on the draft side as well as amateur … and an hour later, someone else called and said he heard the amateur side wasn’t involved at all.

John: When a high level exec is hired out of a big time analytics operation like LA, how much of the organizational “secret sauce” can they feasibly or legally bring with them? I’d imagine any actual models are proprietary, but it’s not like he can just forget player valuations or concepts, right?
Keith Law: I believe that’s part of what gets people hired from other orgs – you’re brought on because of who you are and because of what you know.

Mike: Do you think there is any chance the Rockies turn first base over to McMahon next year? Bonus question: odds Helton is one-and-done in hall of fame balloting on a crowded ballot?
Keith Law: They should, and I don’t think he’ll be one and done but I don’t think he’ll get in either.

Jake: What would the Padres signing Hosmer accomplish? They already have Myers (you can debate who’s better but I’d argue that the difference isn’t worth what Hosmer would cost) and I feel like they would be smarter to go after positions of need (SP, SS). Besides, if you’re willing to spend that much, just go for Ohtani IMO. Thanks.
Keith Law: Makes zero sense. Terrible use of limited funds for them.

Meadow Party: Thoughts on Austin Meadows? I think he can rebound from injuries. Would an offensive profile similar to prime Hunter Pence be realistic? More/less?
Keith Law: Can’t project him to Pence’s power until he starts driving the ball more consistently.

Jon: Sandy Alderson on Dom Smith: “He didn’t win it [Starting 1B job] in September, let’s put it that way.” Will go into ST competing for the gig….what to even make of this?
Keith Law: My hope is that this is a motivational tactic; I know there were questions about his work ethic in the big leagues, and of course he has to keep an eye on the scale as well. My fear is that they’re overreacting to two mediocre months and ignoring the previous body of work (and his age).

Steve: Does one WS title validate trading of Torres, Jimenez, Candelario?
Keith Law: Yes. Is this even a question?

Nils: Hi Keith, loved your book. It got me thinking about prospect evaluation. We always hear about a “5 tool prospect”, where hitting is always one of the important tools. But if a .230 hitter (with poor hit tool) can get on base at a .330 clip, and a .300 hitter (with a great hit tool) also gets on base at .330, then shouldn’t plate discipline be a 6th tool? Or is it viewed less important with a prospect with the idea it can be learned?
Keith Law: Plate discipline is seen as a skill rather than a physical tool, but at this point, it’s on many scouting report forms anyway and the five-tool rubric is a bit of an anachronism.

Justin: Did the A’s get enough for Healy? I know he is a liability in the field, but a relief pitcher doesn’t seem like a great return for a competent bat under team control
Keith Law: Liability in the field and poor OBP skills.

Joseph P: Are there any prospects from the 2017 Draft that have surprised you or is the sample size too small to mean anything?
Keith Law: Too small for most guys. I will say I was pleased to see the Twins push Brent Rooker, who turned 23 two weeks ago, to high-A out of the draft, and to see Rooker respond with very strong results in 160 or so AB there.

Jeff: Brandon Woodruff a solid mid-rotation guy? Chance to be more?
Keith Law: That’s about right.

Jibraun: Every team seemingly now has a “Quality Control Coach,” but none of them can seem to give a clear delineation of the job duties. Can you clear it up?
Keith Law: I don’t know of any standardized description of that role.

Nate: Do you have (or know people in the industry that have) any concerns about Michael Fulmer for next season? Looked to be pitching hurt his final handful of starts. Rest all that is/was needed?
Keith Law: He was hurt. Elbow injury. Supposed to be fine for spring training.

KLawGod: I’ve heard a lot of people blaming the MLBPA during this whole Otani situation. As someone who is not familiar with their role, why are they at fault here in the situation? I thought the MLBPA is advocating for Otani so why are they catching flack?
Keith Law: The MLBPA was involved in the CBA negotiations, and didn’t fight to carve out any sort of protection for Ohtani or players like him, probably because he’s not a union member and any money spent on him would, in theory, not be spent on union members. However, the clearest beneficiary of the cap is the team that signs him, and you would like to think the union would recognize that even if Ohtani isn’t currently a member, the moment he signs a contract here he will be one, and the more he’s paid the more it bumps up the top end of the starting pitcher salary scale.

Eric: Griffin Conine or Seth Beer?
Keith Law: Leaning Conine, but that’s based more on secondhand reports.

Xavier: When you were in college, what did you envision yourself doing for the rest of your life?Did you ever consider becoming an investment banker or entering the finance industry in any way?
Keith Law: I did not. Many classmates did. I heard the hours those people were working and I was very not interested.

Greg: True or False: The Red Sox Opening Day 1B will be Sam Travis
Keith Law: False.

Aaron Boone: Do you have any particular opinion on Aaron Boone’s potential as a manager?
Keith Law: He’s never managed, right? So we just don’t know.

Gene Mullett: Kershaw, Kluber, Scherzer, & Sale really seem to be the elite of MLB arms & have been for a while now. With the exception of Strasburg’s health & Verlander’s hit-or-miss seasons, which SP do you think is most capable of joining them?
Keith Law: Archer has the potential – the stuff, the athleticism, the intelligence – to join them, but has never had the consistent command for it. Carlos Carrasco might be the next tier, but he’s quietly been excellent for a few years now.

Seath: ok last question. If Maitan is one of the prospects that is forfeited by the Braves how would his FA work (or any lost prospect for that matter)? Would teams need to use their International pool money or is it a free for all?
Keith Law: Precedent says it’ll be IFA money, under the cap. But he’d keep his previous bonus, so he’s protected.

Stanton: Given that Stanton was a 7.5 win player last year and is essentially payed at or under market value aren’t the Marlins right to ask for the moon in return?
Keith Law: They can ask for whatever they want, but he was a 2-win player in 2016, and I don’t believe he’d get 10 years and $290 million in free agency this winter. Not a chance.

Gene Mullett: What album(s) is/are on your household heavy rotation lately?
Keith Law: Beck, INHEAVEN, Hundred Waters, Portugal. The Man, Death from Above.

Mike Mott: I’m cooking turkey for the first time for my Friendsgiving. Any advice? I’ve been told brining is a must.
Keith Law: I’ve brined with success, but the last three years I’ve spatchcocked the bird and “dry brined” (really, salted) instead.

Jeremy: I think it is safe to say there are waaaaaay more powerful people, particularly in politics, who are serial abusers, than we can even imagine. What ticks me off the most, is that Congress has a special fund, made up entirely of taxpayer dollars, that is specifically to take care of settlements in legal complaints against our representatives. Aren’t these guys all rich enough to take care of their own business?
Keith Law: Yes, and they’re powerful enough to make us take care of their business. I agree, there are WAY more of these cases coming, in politics (both parties, so please, stop the partisan whining), entertainment, business, and sports.

Ryan: Thoughts on Urias? There seems to be a wide spectrum. With his bat I can see the ceiling as an above average 2B competing for batting titles year in and year out.
Keith Law: I’m a fan. I don’t really care about batting average titles, but Urias can hit.

John: I know conventional wisdom is not to trade within your division, but if you were Jeter, would it make sense to find a partner for Stanton in the Braves/Mets/Phillies? If he’s good, he probably opts out before you’re competitive and if he’s not, it’s a long term hamstring for whoever ends up with him.
Keith Law: That conventional wisdom is stupid. Of course they should explore in-division trades … but the Mets aren’t touching a contract like that.

Drew: With his second consecutive, and third overall, Cy Young, do you think Scherzer is a Hall of Famer? I admittedly can be a bit of a Nats homer, but was surprised that Boswell wrote that “Cooperstown talk is a long way off because Max was a bit of a late bloomer who became good in 2010, then great by ’13 as he added a curveball to his repertoire.” Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Ask me this after Mussina is elected.

David: Hi Keith, You mentioned on Twitter that Beltran should make the Hall of Fame. I agree. He was a tremendous player with a great career. I noticed his career WAR and JAWS totals were similar to Kenny Lofton (about a 1 WAR difference on B-R over their careers and peak). Why do you think Lofton never got a push? Was it simply a lack of power in a power-heavy era?
Keith Law: Yes, and that Lofton moved around a lot so he didn’t have a fan base or local writers stumping for him.

David: What do you see as the future for Jordan Luplow? Everyday player? 4th OF? More? Less?
Keith Law: Fourth OF.

Mattey: You’re aware of the beautiful baseball stadium slated for demolition in Camden. I think it’s obvious that an affiliated minor league team would have much better there than the independent league that was there, but is that right? How much would having an affiliated team there hurt Phillies ticket sales?
Keith Law: Don’t think it’d hurt at all. Might even help, as fans would have a better chance to see prospects on their way up.

Russ: Define projectability. We have a 13yo outfielder/2nd baseman who is already 5’9 and 163. He’ll naturally add height and mass as he gets older, but does he want to leave room for “projectability” or get as strong / athletic as possible……….
Keith Law: I am not a fan of kids that young doing heavy weight training to get bigger. I doubt we know the consequences of that over the long term. Just stay in shape and have fun.

Michael Izen: Hi Keith, which team do you think will land Otani, and how much of an impact will he make on that team?
Keith Law: No idea who’ll land him.

Richard: Do you still think Ohtani’s hitting is being way overhyped?
Keith Law: Absolutely. But facts don’t matter much any more, do they?

DHugh: If Ohtani comes to the MLB this off-season, would it be permissible for a team to promise that they’d release him to free agency after a year or two?
Keith Law: MLB has made it clear they’d consider that a violation of the rules. After the Atlanta imbroglio I doubt anyone would flaunt the Commissioner’s authority so brazenly.

tom: My eleven year old granddaughter has become fanatical about baseball. When asked what she wants to do when she grows up she answers,”I am going to Yale to study economics so I can train to be a GM”. Can you recommend any books that will provide her a better understanding of the dynamics of a baseball game as well as the construction of a team. While very bright, she is just eleven years old with the expected math skills for that age. Thanks. Tom PS – she chooses Yale over Harvard, because her dad is an alum.
Keith Law: I don’t know of many books on the topic – if you’re here, then you probably know about my book – but I’d certainly suggest Moneyball too, even with its flaws. Also, tell her she should study whatever subject she loves. Economics isn’t necessary or even that useful for this sport.

Jason: Given the statistics on how rare false accusations are (and how many victims stay silent), what would it take for you not to believe an accuser of sexual violence/harassment?
Keith Law: That’s a good question without an easy answer. Certainly, if the accused can produce evidence that, say, he wasn’t in that place at that time, or something else that’s clearly disproof, that would settle it. But you’re right about how rare false claims are.

Pat D: Hate to ask this, but what’s your guess on how many people use the Franken story to justify/excuse/outright ignore the Roy Moore story?
Keith Law: I don’t follow any alt-right nitwits on Twitter, but that stuff shows up in my feed anyway, and I’m seeing a lot of that nonsense. Here’s a real hot take: Franken should resign immediately. Maybe we should just go with a Senate of 100 women instead.

Greg: What’s your outlook on Gregory Polanco? Was he just constantly hurt last year? Or has he maybe taken a step backward?
Keith Law: Seems to be a lot going wrong – not healthy, but not as selective as he was, and not making hard enough contact either. The disconnect between his physical ability and his major league performance is huge. I can’t give up on that talent, but perhaps the Pirates need to find a different coach to work with him.

Dennis: Best choice for Angels to fill the chasm at second? Sign Neil Walker? Trade for Kinsler or Gordon? Convince Cozart to switch to second?
Keith Law: Lots of 2b available now – Gordon would be the best fit if they can afford him (in prospects).

Justin Y: Rumors were flying around of a Melancon/Heyward swap. Worth the risk for the Giants? Play him in CF.
Keith Law: Andy Baggarly said it was nonsense.

Jim: How long will it take AA to make a move or two in Atlanta? At some point, they have to start trading prospects for ML talent, right?
Keith Law: Knowing Alex, I’m kind of stunned he didn’t make three trades before leaving Orlando.

Jim: What’s your favorite Thanksgiving food to cook that doesn’t contain any dead animals?
Keith Law: Dead animals can be delicious. But my Thanksgiving menu is typically turkey, two stuffings (one with chicken stock, one with andouille sausage), and then a LOT of vegetables. I roast 2-3 pounds of Brussels sprouts at high temp and toss them in a sweet and sour sauce; that’s often a big hit and it scales well for the crowd.

Adam Trask: Does Al Franken’s apology matter, or should we throw him out, too?
Keith Law: I thought the apology was weak – but does an apology unring the bell? Does it un-violate the victim? There are plenty of candidates out there who didn’t grope anyone. Step aside for one of them instead.

JR: At my kids 10u game last Friday, the pitcher for the opposing team threw 99!! pitches over 5 innings. It was the second game of a double header and after the fact we found out he had thrown an inning in their first game, so between in game and warm up pitches, etc, he probably threw around 150 pitches that day. Our team was literally in shock that they had him throw so many pitches. Crazy what adults will do too young kids to win game. Sadly, the tournament has an innings limit for each kid, but not a pitch count, so they didn’t break any rules.
Keith Law: You should approach the tournament directors and push for a rule change, then.

Dr. Rob: Which player from the 70’s or 80’s do you think should be in the HOF that would surprise the most people? For me it’s Bobby Grich.
Keith Law: Whitaker is my main guy, but I agree on Grich and also Trammell.

Andrew Vargha: How much stock do you put into 1st time through the order stats when projecting how a starter could be as a reliever?
Keith Law: Not a ton because we expect a pitcher’s stuff to tick up in a relief role. It’s more that a pitcher who struggles the 2nd/3rd time through is probably not going to work out as a starter.

Alex: After seeing/hearing about Austin Riley – don’t you think 3rd base should be what AA targets this offseason?
Keith Law: I would explore it, but you can only acquire what’s available, and I don’t think 3b is that strong (not like 2b, which is deep).

Foster: In the Verlander trade, the Tigers had to pay a reported $8 mil. a year of his salary to get Perez, Cameron, and Rogers. At the deadline, if the Yankees paid all of Verlander’s salary, but insisted on sending back Ellsbury, how much of Ellsbury’s salary and what prospects would the Yankees have had to send to complete the deal? Thanks.
Keith Law: I really can’t answer that at all. I’d just be making shit up. But I should point out that any team below Houston in the standings could have just claimed Verlander on trade waivers, even to block him, but didn’t. That alone may have been the difference between Houston winning the World Series and them losing in any of the three rounds of the playoffs, especially the last two.

Doug: I read an article last week that the Sox are thinking about trying Chavis at 2B. Does he had enough range to be passable there?
Keith Law: Worth a try. Don’t think it’ll work, but it’s a good experiment.

Brad: I’m a college student that loves board games but I don’t find video games enjoyable. One of my other three roommates have the same view as I do, but the other two won’t even give them a chance. Is there anything I can do to convince them?
Keith Law: Boardgames inspired by videogames? X-COM is out. Fallout is coming. Seeing more of these as we go along.

BrandonW: Part of me is like “good on the Twins for being transparent about an issue with Marte that can be tested and proven” and another part is “are they allowed to disclose this? Are there HIPAA issues at play?” Thoughts?
Keith Law: He’s not a citizen – does that matter? I don’t know any specifics of HIPAA. Maybe it would have gotten out anyway.

Brad: Can you explain the new tax law they’re trying to pass? I had a professor come in my class and said that it was very good for America, and that it would help all of us college students with finding a job, because more jobs would be created. I just don’t understand it and everyone seems to have an agenda these days.
Keith Law: I doubt I could do a bill that complex justice here, but that professor seems to have given you a very one-sided view that isn’t supported by the history of such tax cuts. Trickle-down economics hasn’t worked; the top marginal rate in the US and the effective corporate tax rate are low enough by global standards that cutting them hasn’t led to the sort of growth proponents have promised.

John: Long term- Kevin Maitan or Vlad Jr.?
Keith Law: Vlad Jr. Not even close. Maitan might not be a top 100 prospect any more; Vlad is top 10.

Leroy: Now that Alex Cora is a manager, who will be your new top recommendation for manager jobs?
Keith Law: That should be my new offseason project – finding the next Alex Coras out there.

KJohn: Just curious how much time you spend on baseball-related matters? A 40 hour week would be about 2,000 hours/year, with intermittent peaks and valleys. How does your time investment compare?
Keith Law: Dunno. My days are so unstructured that it would be hard to count it. I’m certainly not working 9-5 on baseball each day.

Elton: Hello Keith. I think you were the first source from which I heard about the allegations about Louis CK. You must have seen Michael Schur’s apology regarding this. I’m very conflicted and ashamed myself as a (former) big fan of CK who was hoping the stories were somehow not true. Do you think this extraordinary cultural moment where men are being held more accountable will spread to athletes, when so many of them have seemed to continue unscathed after allegations of serious sexual misconduct?
Keith Law: I really hope so. Because you KNOW this is happening across sports. But the handful of times that women have come forward, they’ve had their lives torn apart. Look at Jameis Winston’s accusers – and, by the way, he skated on everything. In the time you asked that question, Jerry Jones signed three more players with histories of violence.

Bobby: Keith – First, as always, thanks so much. I look forward to these chats every week. I don’t want the Yanks to sell low on Betances – particularly if they are at least going to try Green in the rotation – but it is hard to have someone who, while generally dominant, has 2-3 periods during a season where he just loses his mechanics. What would you do w him if you’re Cash?
Keith Law: I’d consider moving him because the bullpen is such a strength for them and he’s superfluous – and could be a closer option for a team that doesn’t want to spend on a Wade Davis. Related: I don’t like moving Chad Green back to the rotation.

Jacob: Should Roy Moore win the special election, and there is a strong chance he will, will you publicly blast Alabamans for sticking behind an obvious pervert….or will you admit that there are many Democrat policies that are so unappealing to many people that they would rather vote for a pedophile than a Democrat?
Keith Law: What policies would those be? I’m genuinely curious. Incidentally, if I had a comparable choice here, I’d simply abstain. I wouldn’t vote for someone who did what Moore has done even if I agreed with all of his policy plans.

Bobby: Again, love the chats. Thanks. Best side dish for Thanksgiving? Also, do you think a sous vide machine is a good purchase or not necessary? If so, which one do you recommend? Finally, Yanks next manager – guess as to who?
Keith Law: Definitely not necessary but very fun to have. Anova is what I own and the only one I’ve used. Best side dish … depends on what you like. I have a mac & cheese recipe here on the site. I mentioned the Brussels sprouts. I really try to jazz up the vegetable sides, because people say they want turkey and starches, but you can only shove so much of that into your stomach before you want to curl up and die.

Andy: Isn’t there a concern with the Braves about their position player prospects? There aren’t many after Acuna and they are about to take away Maitan, Gutierrez, Severino potentially.
Keith Law: Hi, I’m Keith Law, President of the Cristian Pache Fan Club. Can I come in and show you some literature on this fine young centerfielder? I promise it’ll only take two to three hours.

G: Being a Pirates fan, after watching Pelotero, I was no longer comfortable rooting for their acquisition methods in Latin America. The dismissal of Rene Gayo seems like a move in the right direction, but ultimately, is there a way to compete for LA talent while still playing fair, or is the problem systemic?
Keith Law: If MLB enforces its rules, we might see a real sea change in practices down there – but they must keep in mind that impoverished players have nothing to lose by breaking the rules. You police the teams, not the players.

Another Cody: Cody Carrol has gotten hype from the AFL – is he a future big leaguer?
Keith Law: Great arm. Definite big league reliever for me.

James: Given how few free agents actually live up to their contracts why are teams so willing to give out long term contracts? In your opinion did capping the draft and international free agents actually hurt small market teams because it limited the talent they could bring in and develop?
Keith Law: It’s a constrained market: Teams have lots of money to spend and strong incentive to spend it to win now, but the pool of players on which they can spend freely is always limited. The players who’d be the best investments rarely reach free agency. And yes, those caps hurt low-revenue/low-payroll teams the most.

Patty O’Furniture: Nice use of imbroglio
Keith Law: My sesquipedalian proclivity comes in handy at times.

Drew: Follow up to my Scherzer question: I *completely* agree with you about Mussina. Do you think he makes it there eventually?
Keith Law: I do. He’s going to be the next cause celebre for those of us who pick causes celebres for the Hall.

Joe: Can you explain how position affects the defensive side of WAR? I’ve tried reading about it but don’t completely understand. Is it bumped up or down depending on what position one plays?
Keith Law: Think of it this way: All MLB first baseman, in aggregate, hit .265/.347/.487 in 2017. All MLB shortstops hit .264/.319/.416. Therefore, to be an above-average hitter for a first baseman, you must hit above that mark … which would make you a superstar hitter for a shortstop. An above-average hitter at shortstop could still be a below-average hitter at first base. Positional adjustments take this into account: The standard varies by position.

JR: Thoughts on Bitcoin? Do you own or staying away?
Keith Law: Don’t own any.

Dr. Bob: If every powerful male who abused women loses his job, there’s going to be a lot turnover in politics, top levels of business, sports, etc.
Keith Law: I’m good with that.

Sal: Sorry if this is too personal, but could you talk about your daily routine a little? For example do you read eary in the morning? I’m trying to increase my productivity.
Keith Law: My routine varies more than it should, depending on how much sleep I get. But I do like writing first thing, after I drop my daughter off, because it seems to get my brain going.

Johnny O: If you’re hiring a new manager with a team that is young and at least 50% Hispanic, how much importance would you place on finding a candidate who speaks Spanish? Or is that a factor if you have two equally qualified candidates but one of them is bilingual?
Keith Law: I’d consider Spanish skills a requirement for a managing job at any level of the system, from complex leagues on up.

Chris J: What do you expect from Julio Urias going forward?
Keith Law: I’d be surprised if he pitches again.

Steve: That should be *flouts* the commissioner’s authority. Flaunting it would be the opposite.
Keith Law: You are correct; they’d be flaunting their flouting, so to speak.

Frankie: Francis Martes — does he still have a future as a starter?
Keith Law: Not impossible; more likely a reliever for me, but far from certain.

Tom: I have a product I spent a lot of money on but now I don’t like the company. So I’m going to smash said product to smithereens even though the company already has my money cause that’ll learn em. That’s how this works, right?
Keith Law: I was so torn, because Keurigs are awful for the environment, and they make terrible coffee (the grounds are stale by the time you brew that cup), but my God was it funny to see the reactions. And, by the way, no one seemed to want to admit that Hannity claimed on air that a 14-year-old could consent to sexual contact, which is false.

Carl: Did you know Ingenious is no longer available for purchase on the App Store? That game got me through several long plane trips!
Keith Law: I didn’t – that’s a bummer. Maybe I can talk to some industry contacts about bringing it back. I think the company that did Caylus went under too.

Jay: Garvey Murphy Trammel Morris Whitaker Bill Madlock all 80s guys that got so little respect from HOF
Keith Law: Well, Garvey, Morris, and Madlock are all well below the line. Dale Murphy is a tougher one: he had a Hall of Fame peak without the longevity.

Buck: I keep seeing good reports on Austin Riley in the AFL. SSS, or could there be a little bit of a breakout here?
Keith Law: I saw him. Same guy at the plate. AFL stats aren’t useful, given the small sample, good hitting environment, and highly variable levels of competition. He has improved defensively since 2016, though – I saw it, and I have heard the same from scouts who saw him this year too.

sk: Will Hunter Renfroe ever hit for average in the majors?
Keith Law: Gotta hit or lay off the slider away for that to happen.

Sam: Are the critical reports on Maitan accurate? or a little over the top being that he’s a 17 year old playing just one season over here. Also how much time does Blake Rutherford have before people start to grumble that he could be a bust?
Keith Law: I’ve heard a lot of reports about his body that I think were over the top, but his swing looks awful now. Rutherford is probably at that point now. Another bad year and he’ll get written off. (Not without reason, given his age.)

Brian: Will you do a Periscope this year as you prep your bird?
Keith Law: Absolutely. I get requests for this every November.

addoeh: People always bring up Duke lacrosse as a counterpoint to any sexual assault claim. But in addition to a single accuser who made it up, there was also a DA, Mike Nifong, who made many serious prosecutorial errors that weren’t uncovered until later. If Nifong had done his job, we probably never hear about it.
Keith Law: Agreed. Or an ethical DA (I think Nifong was disbarred for his actions?) might have uncovered lesser crimes that didn’t become a national news story.

Jesse: Mastodon’s Emperor of Sand a candidate for your top 10 albums this year?
Keith Law: I liked it, doubt it makes my top 10 offhand.

Brian: Pressure cooker or slow cooker?
Keith Law: Pressure cooker.

Jim: How do you come up with your opening statement for Klawchat?
Keith Law: Tends to be from a song I heard in the last week.

Dennis: Funner read: Don Quixote or The Count of Monte Cristo?
Keith Law: Monte Cristo by far. It’s a hell of an adventure.

Jason: What’s Pache’s ETA? And assuming the Braves move Inciarte before he’s ready, who is the better defensive CF between Pache and Acuna?
Keith Law: Three years away. Pache might be a 70 defender now.

Bryce Harper: Keith Hernandez: Hall of Famer?
Keith Law: Not for me.

Brent: If you’re the White Sox, it’s a smart move to trade your intl cash for Vieira? That arm and Cooper, it’s not crazy to hope for another Kahnle type, no?
Keith Law: Sure. I don’t mind the trade. But I don’t think he’s a great prospect. He might not be top 20 in that system now.

Lance: Were you classmates of Radhika Jones? Know her?
Keith Law: Don’t know her. I think she was ’95.

Ham Bone: With all the allegations of sexual assault, how is Peyton Manning not brought up again. He is still the face of State Farm and Papa John’s.
Keith Law: Because no one believes women who accuse athletes.

Jackie: Dwight Evans was much better at baseball than Jim Rice. And Dewey didn’t snub my autograph request when I was eleven …
Keith Law: Evans had a legit HoF case but didn’t have any hack writers stumping for him.

Vince: Mixed feelings about the situation in Zimbabwe. Mugabe was a tyrant, but military rule is almost never the answer. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Same. Mugabe’s reign of terror has impoverished the country, though. Unless they fall into anarchy like Somalia, it’s hard to fathom anything being worse.

JP: can Profar still be an above-average regular with a change of scenery?
Keith Law: I think so. Would love to see him get the chance.

Ty: Hi Keith! Shouldn’t baseball make teams at minimum ask teams to bid draft picks for Ohtani? Seems insane that they are letting a player send $100M-$200M in surplus value to one lucky team. Obviously, the better solution is to declare him a free agent which would take care of the surplus value question.
Keith Law: That’s an interesting idea. Detroit picks first; what if MLB said hey, you can take him, today, and pay him #1 pick slot, but give up that pick? If they pass, go to the next team. That’s crazy and impossible and I kind of love it.

Iowa Cowtipper: I’m glad that the many sexual assaulters are finally being exposed and agree that most accused are guilty. Still, I’m troubled by the rush to judgement that follows accusations today. I fear a new Macarthyism of sorts.
Keith Law: The accusations we’ve seen so far have either been supported by concrete evidence or been exceptionally well sourced by the journalists who’ve brought them forward. I can think of one recent allegation that didn’t fit that – George Takei – and that has, for the moment, failed to gain traction as a result. (Which is not to say it’s false.) I’d love to say we’re at or approaching some equilibrium, where every assaulter/harasser is called out and faces the consequences of his actions, but there are no false accusations out there. That’s an impossible goal, and right now, I don’t think we’re anywhere close to it.

mike : being ifa can keep previous bonus, whats stopping them from lying during interviews to get paid twice?
Keith Law: If a player lies about his age or name or something similar, he won’t get to keep the money. IFAs have no incentive to balk at illegal deals, though; in fact, the system probably discourages them from balking at them. But I think the solution is to crack down on teams offering such deals, as Boston did and apparently Atlanta did too.

Steve: Has the beer industry gone too IPA happy?
Keith Law: You mean too hoppy?

Kilgore Trout: If a male engaged in any of this boorish or offensive behavior as a minor, but later grew up and realized the errors of his ways, should there be consequences?
Keith Law: Consequences like disqualification from public office? Sure. But that’s separate from any judicial process.

Bill: A lot of people are writing off Gardenhire as an old school manager, but he seems to have embraced the analytics training he got with the Diamondbacks, an idea backed up recently by comments from Torey Lovullo. Old dog/new tricks?
Keith Law: This will only be borne out by his actions on the job. He can say the right things now, but it’s all just words until we see a real change in his style.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week, and with the holiday next week I will not chat again until the 30th. I will do a Periscope video chat while I’m prepping for the big meal, though, so I hope some of you will join me there. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions!

I’ve been busy! I have a new boardgame review at Paste, covering the card-drafting game Skyward. I also had two Insider posts go up earlier this week, one previewing some potential offseason trade targets, the other ranking the top 50 free agents this winter.

I’ll also send out the next edition of my free email newsletter either this evening or tomorrow.

Keith Law: It’s the school exam and the kids have run away. Klawchat.

Erix: Why is it that pitchers go in the top 10 in the draft but are seldom top 10 intl prospects?
Keith Law: Is that true? I assume you mean pitchers are seldom among the top 10 bonuses in IFA. I would guess that the reason is that predicting arm health for 15- or 14-year-old pitchers is rather difficult.

Ronald Acuna: What type of package could Ender Inciarte return? Could he be a centerpiece of a top-of-rotation arm?
Keith Law: I would think so – or a middle-of-the-order bat at a position of need (third?). If you don’t get something like that, you don’t trade him.

Wally: What would you do if you were Mike Rizzo? All in for 2018 then let harper, Murphy maybe Stras leave and do a total rebuild? Or, do you think there is enough room between them and 2nd place in the NL East to make some changes now (trade one or more of Murphy/Gio/Roark/heaven forbid Harper?) to extend the window while still giving them a good (albeit lesser) chance to win the East in 2018
Keith Law: All in for 2018 while you have this group. Hard to forecast assembling another roster with 2 real MVP candidates, 2 real CYA candidates, and so much additional talent. Have to go for it.

Bored Lawyer, Esq. : Forrest Whitley had rather high BABIPs throughout his stops in the minors. Is that a blip? What could it mean relative to his stuff?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t take anything away from it. Research on BABIPs has focused on the majors, not minors.

ssimon: Your Stick to Baseball links from last weekend included the L.A. Times’ investigation of Disney’s tax breaks in Anaheim. Are you as opposed to these subsidies for corporations as you are for owners of baseball teams?
Keith Law: No, because there’s at least some economic benefit from such subsidies or tax breaks. Financing a sports stadium doesn’t bring economic benefits; any jobs created are unskilled and temporary, and “new” spending is generally shifted from other (local) outlets. A city or state can subsidize the construction of, say, an Intel fab or a Toyota factory, and thus create skilled jobs that will generate new tax revenues and increase local consumption. That said, there has to be an actual cost/benefit analysis there, and the LAT article claimed that Anaheim isn’t getting what it pays for.

Dan: A thought on the home run spike. Obviously the ball is juiced and that is clear as day. But isn’t interesting that the spike seemed to affect the lower-middle power guys? The players who’d normally hit 10-15 were hitting 20-25 instead. But the top end guys maybe didn’t that big of a spike? Everyone thought Stanton could do this if healthy, this might be Judge’s peak but it wasn’t out of nowhere, and bellinger is also a freak.
Keith Law: I disagree. Stanton, Judge, Bellinger all benefited, clearly. Khris Davis hit 43. Justin Smoak nearly doubled his career high to 38, putting him top 10 in the majors. It seemed to affect everyone.

Same question different day: Given the new bal environment, is it at all possible to project potential power output from minors to majors?
Keith Law: It’s probably doable but I would guess a large adjustment is required to any model – and of course it could become irrelevant if the ball gets un-juiced.

Jay: I think I’ve asked you before but am curious if you think teams are much closer to wanting more studys or medical access to this – How much do you think deteriorating eye sight for hitters as they get older factors into rising strikeout rates compared to just the physical decline component?
Keith Law: My guess, again just off the top of my head, is very little. I believe it’s mostly loss of quickness & reaction time.

Jack: What do you make of the Giants reported interest in Heyward? Is it even legitimate to think that such a trade is possible?
Keith Law: Baggarly said it’s not true. I’ll go with him on anything Giants, other than Omar Vizquel’s legacy.

Patrick: Good day Keith! As a favored source of baseball knowledge, I instead want to tap your knowledge of European metal music.
My hockey playing friends are clamoring for more of that type music, and I don’t know where to start. Recommendations that won’t scare off the rest of the on-ice skaters?
Keith Law: Maybe go for some classic German thrash like Destruction, more contemporary thrash like Hammerfall, Viking metal acts like Tyr, or, if they can handle it, something a little more experimental like Gojira.

Adam D.: I am struggling to see a realistic way for the Giants to contend before 2020. Given what they have now, would you advocate for an Astros-style tear down and who would you make untouchable? I’ll be honest, I am leaning that way and would probably only keep Bumgarner and Posey.
Keith Law: If you’re doing that, you don’t keep anybody. You trade Posey now, because a 30-year-old catcher with 3 years left on his deal and 800 games behind the plate isn’t going to gain value.

Harrisburg Hal: With your math and science interests, did you consider engineering?
Keith Law: My dad was an EE, and he liked his job, but he didn’t encourage that as a career path for me, primarily because he saw how much the job tended to change with each new generation of technology. I did enjoy programming, but I’m not sure it would have worked for a career for me, given my desire to express myself creatively too.

Stupid hypo guy: If their defensive values were the same, Vlad Jr is well above Acuna, right?
Keith Law: That’s true.

Derek: Others (maybe you too?) have said Acuna is by far the best player in the AFL. Is he really much better than Robles? 2017 minor league hitting stats look awfully similar (of course noting that Acuna is half a hear younger, and spent time in AAA and Robles did not). Does Acuna’s defense profile better in CF? It’s hard to believe Acuna has more speed.
Keith Law: I didn’t say that, because I only saw one Acuna AB (and then a HBP). Robles wasn’t there yet, but he might be the better prospect anyway.

ssimon: Based on your estimation of what the QO free agents will receive, which among Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, Lance Lynn, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Alex Cobb, Greg Holland, and Carlos Santana, would you encourage a competitive team to sign?
Keith Law: I might consider giving up a pick for Arrieta, Cain, and maaaaaybe Santana. That’s it.

Jeff: What are the best mobile boardgames that you would recommend?
Keith Law: One of my offseason projects will be a new ranking of all the iOS/mobile boardgames I’ve played, which has to be over 40 by now. Carcassonne is still the best. Agricola is great. Caylus is too, if it’s still supported. All the Days of Wonder titles are good. 7 Wonders comes next week…

John: How much is Otani actually losing? If he is as good as advertised (an ace and a top five DH in the AL) what kind of money could he get in arbitration?
Keith Law: He won’t get to arbitration until he has three years of service. He’s leaving well over $100 million on the table by coming now.

Dale Cooper: Most murder investigations don’t take as long as MLB’s Braves investig……..wait…..did…..did the Braves……murder someone?
Keith Law: This and the weird leaks have me wondering what on earth is going on over on Park Ave.

Ryan: Enjoying the annual freakout over early offseason Boras asking prices? You’d think people who watch the same movie year after year would get wise to the plot, but apparently not.
Keith Law: And then we had the freakout over the freakout, which was really hard to fathom. I’m in favor of players asking for and getting every dollar they can, but if I think a team overpays a player, darn right I’m going to laugh at them.

Kevin: Out of the HOF veterans committee nominees, who do you think gets elected and who do you think should get elected?
Keith Law: They should elect Trammell and Miller and then fire the entire institution into the sun.

Jason: I find it odd that Corey Ray has fallen down the charts so much? Are his struggles that bad or can he turn it around?
Keith Law: I detailed his swing/stance change in my AFL post. He has to restore his old toe-tap and stride.

Ben: Sooo……Roy Moore is a pedophile. Who knew? Does it sink him? Nah. Theocratic pedophiles are all the rage now. And America’s decline continues.
Keith Law: I am morbidly curious to see how many of his supporters, who must by and large be evangelicals, stand by him by either attacking/doubting his victims or by saying it doesn’t matter. Because … yeah, it matters. Those are felonies.

Jack: thoughts on the college basketball/shoe company scandal?
Keith Law: I have no idea what this means.

Rob: Such sad news regarding Roy Halladay. A great pitcher and from everything you hear, a great person too. As trivial as this may seem right now, is he a HOF’er for you?
Keith Law: I’ve been asked this repeatedly in the last 48 hours and have declined to answer it, because it feels both trivial and a bit macabre to discuss him in such terms.

Chris : I think there’s a lot of value on the “lower end” of this year’s FA market. Guys like Joe Smith, Luke Gregerson, Jeremy Hellickson, Yunel Escobar and Chris Tillman all strike me as solid buy-low guys. Do you have any favorite one-year deal guys that could be this year’s Brandon Morrow or Alex Avila?
Keith Law: I had a few on the back of the 50, and I think I’m doing another piece on that soon? Hellickson made my list. I don’t see Escobar, who seems to have lost any defensive value, in that light, and Tillman’s stuff and results have both been awful since the mid-2016 shoulder injury and heavy use after he returned.

Bobby: Otani. I believe you think he will be a legit SP but the bat won’t play (or not enough to stop him from pitching). Think he comes over as a #2? Better/worse? Thanks, as always…
Keith Law: I think he’s a #1 starter, and opposing pitchers will tell us rather quickly if he’s anything with the bat.

Fatherz: Who are the pitchers in the Padres system that have the highest ceilings? Do Gore or Baez have #1 stuff?
Keith Law: Those are probably the top two ceilings, but I don’t think either has pure #1 stuff.

Bobby: Keith – thanks for these chats. Love them. Now that Tanaka has opted not to become a FA what do you think the Yanks should do re their pitching moving forward? Presumably their BP is more or less set…I know they would get Otani if they can…sign Sabathia maybe – anything else? What do they need to do to make it to the WS next year?
Keith Law: Bulk innings. Offense is great, bullpen is great, you don’t need to go sign Arrieta. You need some league-average quantity from your rotation, especially as insurance – Tanaka’s elbow, Montgomery’s fade in the 2nd half, any pitcher can get hurt.

Bobbo: happy Klawchat day and thanks again for answering questions. liked your positive review of Cave vs Cave; i’m intrigued. any chance it surpasses Jaipur as your fave 2p game? if not, why?
Keith Law: Jaipur is so much more elegant. I’d still have that at 1, and 7 Wonders Duel has really moved up my list from last year.

JQ: Was it ever publicly reported that Daniel Flores was battling with cancer? I do no recall ever hearing about this until the sad news yesterday.
Keith Law: I was totally unaware of this. Heartbreaking news.

Mike: I was thinking about doing a spatchcock turkey this year. Do you need to prep the turkey in anyway like a brine (either dry or wet) or just put salt and pepper on it before cooking?
Keith Law: Spatchcock and salt. Check serious eats for the exact timing but I think I salted the morning of cooking.

AC: If you could wave a magic wand and fix one thing about baseball, what would it be? (Anything from the actual game to contracts, to manager’s outfits)
Keith Law: Gosh. I would probably spike the antitrust exemption, as I think that’s led to many other problems in terms of franchise ownership/locations and labor relations.
Keith Law: Although they did carve out an exemption to the exemption for CBA talks.

Morris Buttermaker: KLaw, I have seen you refer to a pitcher’s mechanics or a batter’s swing when evaluating their chances at further success. Where did you learn this? Years of observation? Learning at the foot of older co workers?
Keith Law: Both.

Gabriel: I’m curious as to what the recent death of Daniel Flores will mean to the Red Sox’s international class this year. Would mlb be scared at the prospect of them blowing past any caps for Otani after the death of Flores and their international signing scandal? Thanks keith. Love your work
Keith Law: You can’t blow past the caps any more. These are hard limits. I don’t know if MLB would grant them additional cap space in light of Flores’ passing, though. It seems only fair to the team, no? The Flores family would still have his bonus – and yes, I understand that is no consolation for them – so they would not be further affected.

Ron: I think Mauer was a better choice for a Gold Glove than Hosmer. Course, he didn’t hit 25 homers. Maybe Dozier wasn’t as good a choice as Pedroia or Altuve? What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: Oh, were the Gold Gloves announced this week? I was all out of fucks to give, sorry.

B: Jake McGee had some odd splits last season and was much better against RHB rather than LHB (SSS WARNING). Do you think he could be a sneaky good sign for a team in need of a LH reliever?
Keith Law: I think he’s a full-inning reliever, not just a LH specialist, given his whole history and his pitches. But one-year splits are probably not reliable.

addoeh: The new Marlins ownership group has already said they want to reduce payroll. They now may be looking to trade their potential MVP winner and only real marketable star. They expect little, if anything, in return and may end up trading him to the team that is willing to pick up the greatest amount of what remains on Stanton’s contract, not on what prospects the other team could give. Does this new group have some short term financing deals that could become onerous if not paid off quickly? It doesn’t make a lot of sense otherwise.
Keith Law: This is my concern – that they trade Stanton to clear the money, but don’t get baseball talent in return – because that farm system is awful right now. Eyeballing it, I’d guess it’s #30.

Augustus: Blayne Enlow looks impressive. Could he start in the future or do you think he’s more suited for back of the bullpen?
Keith Law: I think he’s a starter … he’s also 18.

Logic: There has been much discussion about the timing of pitching changes during the world series. The manager is typically given credit or blame. Do you think that front office may actually make some of these calls once the game has started? I understand a lot of decisions are scripted with some organizations, but I am thinking about when things start to go south. Do you think the front office should intervene during the games? Thanks for continuing the chats, they are appreciated.
Keith Law: I don’t think the FO does this, or should do it. You hire the manager who is an extension of your approach, but you empower him to make these decisions in-game.

Tiberius: Do you think Trent Clark ever reaches the majors at this point?
Keith Law: I do.

Devon : Hey, Keith! Thank you as always for the chats. I was wondering who you prefer offensively in terms of overall future value: Eloy or Acuna?
Keith Law: Eloy.

Caligula: Jesus Luzardo: Is he a GUY or just a guy?
Keith Law: I hear he’s a GUY, unlike your proposed consul.

Jon (Philadelphia): I recently became a vegetarian. So far, the most challenging aspect has been finding decent options when I don’t have time to cook for myself, which is not infrequent as I basically live in the hospital as a surgical resident. In response, I have tried to cook in bulk for the week whenever I have time but am new to this cooking approach. Do you have any practical advice on how to optimize this process while ensuring that I do not compromise on flavor/nutritional content? Thanks Keith
Keith Law: Veg dishes are tricky to do in bulk because most veg don’t survive reheating well. When I have a lot of leftover cooked vegetables, I try to repurpose them. A batch of leftover roasted broccoli goes into the blender with some stock and maybe a little cream to make soup. Leftover aromatics can become the sauce or accompaniment to whatever your main protein is, or added to a cooked bean dish when served.

Joe-Nathan: Is Alex Speas Stetson Allie 2.0?
Keith Law: He’s better than that. But still might never have the control he’ll need to pitch in the majors.

Rick: You’ve said before that you don’t think that Chris Taylor hasn’t turned into anything and that it’s a SSS. Do you still feel that way even after the season and the postseason he had?
Keith Law: Only a fool would change his opinion of a player based on a postseason performance. It’s not just a small sample, it’s a skewed one.

Galba: Jahmai Jones or Jo Adell?
Keith Law: Jones for me.

Adam: In the broadest scope possible, how many WAR is required to even warrant consideration for the HOF?
Keith Law: I do not favor this approach, sorry. WAR is not precise enough to discuss thresholds, only comparisons.

Onomatopoeia: Kepler and Thorpe too much/too little for Chris Archer?
Keith Law: Too little. Archer’s contract is extremely club friendly.

Zirinsky: Hi Keith. I’m curious: is there any way to structure a pitching staff so that a team could have someone only pitching once per week (I’m thinking of the Yankees/Tanaka but this could apply to others)?
Keith Law: Yes, teams used to do it with “Sunday starters” in the four-man era. No reason you can’t do it today with the use of swingmen/long relievers.

Devon: For the first time in months we have an actual policy (tax reform) being debated in Congress, but it is already devolving into the typical echo-chamber politicization of the issues in the same way every other issue has in the last two-plus years. Is society ever going to go back to a point where people actually research issues and develop their own opinions or are we in a “new normal” where people only do what their political parties tell them to do without questioning?
Keith Law: I don’t see that happening in the next twenty years.

Vespasian: Does Carson Kelly have a future in St Louis? They seem to be pretty dead set on Yadi as a starter. Given the typical lifespan of a catcher, wouldn’t it make more sense for the Cards to flip Kelly for someone who plays a position of need?
Keith Law: Probably, if they don’t see Kelly starting in the next two seasons. But I think he’s a starter, maybe an above-average one if he can get some of the raw power he’ll show in BP into his game swing.

Jim Nantz: In your free agent piece, you named the Rangers as potential players in the 2B market, which I get since Odor was terrible last year. However, he’s still young and I know you rated him highly as a prospect. Any chance he keeps developing and bounces back, or is he simply a high HR/low OBP guy now?
Keith Law: He’s gotten worse for two straight years, and UZR even killed his defense last year (dRS didn’t, so we have a real discrepancy there). Can he improve? Yes. There are very few positive historical comparables, however. And if they want to win in 2018, getting a certain upgrade makes more sense than rolling him out there and hoping he isn’t sub-replacement level again.

Titus: Is Zack Granite just a 4th outfielder or could he be more?
Keith Law: Fourth outfielder most likely.

Joe-Nathan: I remember that you wrote a few posts about Reggie Lawson when he was in HS, and that you liked him but his stuff backed up in his senior year. No one seems to talk about him in the padres system, so I can only scout the stat line. K’s are there, so should people be talking about him?
Keith Law: My understanding is that the stuff isn’t really as good as it was his junior year. I saw him briefly in the spring and it hadn’t gotten that much better. Still a good athlete with some arm strength.

Tony: Is it outrageous to think brad hand could fetch a top 30 prospect
Keith Law: If that’s the ask, then we know why he hasn’t been traded.

Matt: Has Tatis passed Robles/Senzel as a prospect?
Keith Law: He’s clearly above Senzel. Robles … I’ll leave that till the rankings.

Dr. Bob: J.D. Martinez looks to me to be a sucker bet, especially for a National League team. In 2016 his defense was so bad that even though he had a 4.0 oWAR, his overall WAR was 1.8. He’ll be 30 with some injury history. At, say, 5 years, $150 million, you would be looking for an average of 4.0 WAR per year on the wrong side of 30. I’d talk, but probably stay away. What say you?
Keith Law: I agree – I saw that he’s looking for $200 million and thought that I wouldn’t give him half that. He seems like the type of player who could decline in a big hurry.

Jesse: What is it about Carcassonne that makes it so unique of an experience for you to consistently rank it so highly? I love the game too, but find with all the recent new games that have come out in the past five years or so, that it often gets forgotten come game nights.
Keith Law: It’s simple, elegant, extensible, and easy to teach newcomers without a loss of complexity for regulars. I also try not to succumb to recency bias on my rankings. The iOS implementation is considered the best app version of any boardgame, not just by me, but I believe by many in the industry too.

Roy Moore: How sadly unsurprised are you by the latest news about him?
Keith Law: Those who rail against immorality are often compensating for their own immoral desires.

Buck Dancer: The Cardinals appear to be the favorite to acquire Stanton. In your eyes, what is a fair package for them to send to Miami? What would acquiring Stanton do to the Cardinals chances of overtaking the Cubs and holding off the Brewers?
Keith Law: Why are they the favorite? I missed that entirely.

Mark: What prompted you to get into board games? I’m constantly mocked by my family, friends, and even strangers that I’m grown man who is engrossed in board games. How should I respond to these people?
Keith Law: There were 65,000 people at GenCon this year, mostly adults. Some were even … women. Also, if someone mocks your hobby, then they’re not your friends. Unless you’re a brony. Those people are weird.

Daniel : I have great respect for your musical tastes, so I’m interested in your insights on this simply query: Mellencamp or Springsteen?
Keith Law: Pass.

Nerva: Understanding that every prospect is unique, there seems to be a sentiment that some systems are more prone to failing in a type of player’s development (e.g. Orioles with pitchers or the Jack Z. Mariners with hitters). With that in mind, do you factor in organizational structure when rating and ranking prospects? If you have two identical pitchers and one is drafted by the Orioles while the other is drafted by the Dodgers, would you rank the latter above the former?
Keith Law: I don’t. My rankings are team-agnostic because prospects can change orgs at any time.

Charlie: If the Red Sox don’t sign a 1B, what are the odds Michael Chavis gets the most PAs there next year?
Keith Law: Travis will get a long look there if they don’t acquire one from outside (I think they will, someone with power).

Josh: Could Luis Urias be a +10 DRS guy at 2B or is that too rich?
Keith Law: Seems high, but he’s also never played there full-time, has he? He’s played a good bit of short and is competent there.

Rick: Thoughts on barstool ? I think some of the gimmicks are funny but they ripped Cortea for getting married so young and not hooking up with a bunch of different like Jeter ? #cringeworthy
Keith Law: I thought that Correa thing was some movie reference (Anchorman?) I didn’t get.

Jay: You mentioned the Giants as a possible destination for Donaldson in a trade. Would the Jays really trade him in offseason rather than the trade deadline in ’18 (assuming they are not in contention)?
Keith Law: Why not? In the offseason, far more teams think they’re contenders, and budgets are much more flexible.

Cassidy : What restaraunts did you dine at while at AFL ? The usual ? (Bianco, Matt’s, etc.?) anything new ?
Keith Law: The only new spots were Casa de Falafel in Peoria (Iraqi food, in a gas station, really great) and Forno 301 downtown. Otherwise it was Keith’s greatest hits – Hillside, Cartel, Giant, Matt’s, crepe bar, Republica Empanada, Pane Bianco, FnB, etc.

Daniel Morton: Tirso Ornelas stick in a corner or have to move to 1B
Keith Law: Corner OF.

Brandon: Would it not be a good idea for both the Rockies and CarGo to reach a one-year deal, with some playing time at 1B?
Keith Law: He didn’t hit enough to be a regular in the OF last year. Not sure why you’d want him at 1b.

Rex: A FG writer recently said that he thinks it’ll be a while before a team other than the Yankees, Indians, Astros, Red Sox, Dodgers, Nationals or Cubs is in the WS. What do you think about that?
Keith Law: I would take the other side of that bet.

Cassidy : So a GOP candidate is being accused of sexual assault (awful, if true) but do you think an accusation should merit being pulled from running for office ? One person could come forward lying and your life is ruined …?! Just doesn’t seem fair (although I do believe most accusations are true)
Keith Law: It’s one accusation of assault and several of enticement of a minor, plus other accounts of untoward behavior.

Chase: Percent chance that Ohtani will be in an MLB uniform on Opening Day?
Keith Law: I’d go up to 40% now from about 20% before he hired CAA and we heard that the parties have been negotiating or at least discussing. MLB has really, colossally screwed this up. Just waive the cap for him and forget about it.

Jason: Do you prefer dominick smith to greg bird, (Birds health issues aside?)
Keith Law: Smith is a much better hitter with less power and much more defense, so yes.

John C.: I know he’s not great by any stretch, but Ryon Healy would be a huge upgrade at 3B over Garcia and Ruiz for the Braves. Given his youth and contract, which young starter would you be willing to trade to acquire him from Oakland?
Keith Law: He can’t play third.

Jason: Would you care if your daughter smoked weed, but was still productive ? Struggling with my daughter wether to allow it or not
Keith Law: I would not.

Jerry: What are the chances Ohtani already has a deal in place with a team?
Keith Law: Zero. Unless some GM wants to get fired.

Moe Mentum: Rank and defend these decades-old parody movies that end with exclamation points: Airplane! Hot Shots! Top Secret!
Keith Law: Top Secret, Airplane, I never even finished Hot Shots.

David Stearns: Help! I can’t tell if 2016 Jonathan Villar is the mirage or if 2017 Jonathan Villar is the fluke…which one is right?
Keith Law: 2016 seemed way out of line with the rest of his career.

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: So I started reading The Master and Margarita based on the fact it’s your number one book. Any suggestions on what to pay attention to while reading?
Keith Law: Remember that Bulgakov wrote it as an anti-communist fable while he was writing as a state playwright for the Soviet government.

Dan: I know that injuries kinda derailed Isan Diaz’s 2017 but is he still a top 100 caliber prospect for you?
Keith Law: I think so, since the hamate probably wrecked his year.

Tom: I realize I run the risk of being struck by a lightning bolt, especially where I live, but when I heard Vin Scully’s national anthem comments, all I could think of was “89 year old white grandpa misses the point completely.” (Ducking)
Keith Law: Yep. I felt the same. Met Vin once, as nice a man as you’ll come across, but that was quite ignorant given the players he covered in his career.

Dan: Is a line of .280/.350/.400 a pretty accurate projection for Kevin Newman?
Keith Law: A year ago I would have said yes. Given how little power he showed in AAA, just in terms of hard contact, I’m thinking less now.

PD: Really sad story about Daniel Flores. I was looking at video of his release and swing and he looked really good. Where would he had ranked for you?
Keith Law: As with Halladay/HoF, I would simply prefer not to discuss the recently departed in those terms. I’m sorry.

Andy: The last two WS winners have largely done it with home grown hitters carrying the bulk of the load. If you want to throw the Dodgers and Indians into the mix, they also did it with more homegrown hitters (with Kershaw being an exception.) Do you think that the additional certainty with a hitter could make teams value bats above pitching in the top of drafts?
Keith Law: Some teams, notably the Cubs, have argued that you want bats in the top 10-15 picks, then go pitching later. They’ve drafted that way quite a bit. I think the Dodgers have too. There’s more predictability in their performance and lower attrition rates.

Nick: What’s the ideal path for the oriole’s at this point? I say Trade Manny and Brach now, and Britton mid season hoping he stays healthy the first half, sign a couple bounce back candidate starting pitchers to high AAV short term deals and hope to flip them as well? Don’t see a path to winning next year so maybe try to rebuild on the fly without completely tearing it down?
Keith Law: Trade Britton and/or Brach now. If they intend to compete this year, then they keep Machado and ride it out. If they intend to rebuild, then trade everyone now.

Sage: Everyone mentions the ball is juiced, but I’ve heard the seams are not raised like they used to be, causing a decline on effective pitching, and spike in distance a ball does. Are these same thing, or am I misinterpreting ?
Keith Law: Two different things. The coefficient of restitution has changed too (the ball is bouncier).

Chris: interesting trade idea on RAB today: Yelich for Acevedo, Adams, Solak, and Frazier. I know youre not super high on the first two, but what do you think? Obv Denbo knows their system well.
Keith Law: Supposedly they don’t want to deal Yelich at all. That seems like a bunch of quantity over quality.

Andrew: Would a solution like Toastmasters help me with a problem with my public speaking?
Keith Law: I know people who swear by them, but I’ve never participated in it (or done anything for public speaking).

JJ: Keith, weird question, but with as health conscious as players/teams are today, are there players who are major smokers (similar to Leyland)? I know smokeless tobacco is still popular among players and isn’t healthy but was curious how much of that is hidden from public image.
Keith Law: The answer depends completely on what leaf we are discussing.

Joe: Do the minor league use the same balls as the major leaguers?
Keith Law: They do not.

Nick: Greatest mankind accomplishment of all time? Moon landing? Building of Pyramids? Internet? Something else?
Keith Law: Eradicating smallpox.

Andrew: I know you mentioned in one of these chats or your twitter that the interview process isn’t a good way to evaluating a potential hire (Dave Martinez). What is a good way of seeing if someone is a good hire?
Keith Law: Resume and references.

Nick: Who is the most surprising top 10 draft pick you’ve seen since covering the draft?
Keith Law: Hm. Most surprising first rounder was Hayden Simpson, but I think he was 15th or 16th overall. DeShields Jr at 8 to Houston in 2010 was a surprise, just that he went that high, although I think I had him projected to them at pick 19 (they took Foltynewicz there). Hobgood in 2009 and Townsend the second time around to Tampa Bay in 2005 come to mind too.

Jock: Austin Beck – do you think he was a reach at #6 last year or do you think that he represents a good departure for the A’s as they aim to develop more “toolsy” and “high reward” players in hopes of landing a new stadium in a few years? Thanks, Keith.
Keith Law: Not a reach, but huge risk huge reward type of guy.

JJ: Care to make an early prediction on the 2018 ROYs?
Keith Law: I do not, thanks.

Ed: There’s no way Davis doesn’t accept the QO, right?
Keith Law: If he thinks he can get multiple years elsewhere, then he would decline it.

Nathan: Keith! Love your work … I need some help. I’m trying to acquire the taste for straight black coffee. Can you give me some tips on what roast or brand I should start with? Much appreciated…
Keith Law: I never drank my coffee black until I tried Intelligentsia, and from there branched out to other “third wave” roasters (very light roasts, usually from single estates or small regions). Adding dairy to coffee introduces fats that block the bitter receptors on your tongue, but really good coffee that is properly roasted has very little to no bitterness.

yankees fan: I know you have been impressed by sheffield recently. Has he considerably improved since last years trade? If yes, in what way?
Keith Law: He has. He’s throwing harder and has switched to a slider.

Tim: Cooking question. Is it safe to feed a toddler food cooked with wine (braised, risotto, etc.)? I see so much conflicting information online.
Keith Law: Yes. Most of the alcohol will cook out – it evaporates at about 173 F. And a batch of risotto should use 1/2 cup of wine, which works out to about 14 ml of alcohol. Even if your toddler ate the entire batch, well, he’d get sick from all that rice first.
Keith Law: I need to wrap this up to pick up my car from the mechanic’s. Thank you for all of your questions and for reading all the content I’ve put together this week. I should be back next Thursday for a chat, and there will be a video chat as usual when I spatchcock the turkey before Thanksgiving. Have a safe weekend, everyone.