keith — Page 12

→ February 24, 2024
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 2/24/24.

My entire prospect rankings for 2024 are now up for subscribers to The Athletic, including:

I held a Klawchat earlier this week to take questions on the lists and more.

Over at Paste, I reviewed Apiary, the latest game from publisher Stonemaier Games (Wingspan, Scythe, Tapestry); The Search for Lost Species, a deduction game and sequel to my #1 game of 2020, The Search for Planet X; and The White Castle, my #1 game of 2023, designed by the folks behind The Red Cathedral.

I also sent out a new edition of my free email newsletter last week, about how we had to put our cat, Hexie, down when a blood clot traveled to his descending aorta and paralyzed his hind quarters. It’s been tough.

And now, the links…

Longreads first: Religious zealot and billionaire Tim Dunn is behind the Texas GOP’s hard shift to the right as he tries to remake the state into a Christian theocracy. Imagine if a Muslim billionaire used his money in a similar way. It’s certainly not about following the teachings of Jesus – as does this Catholic charity in El Paso, which is now facing closure at the hands of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
I’ll also just mention here that religious ‘nones’ are now the largest single group in the U.S. The term refers to anyone who does not identify themselves as affiliated with a church or religion, including atheists, agnostics, ‘spiritual but not religious’ people, deists, and others.
The New York Times had an excellent story on the athletes recruited to The New School in Florida, as the state pours money into the once-liberal institution to try to turn it into a southern version of Hillsdale College. The kids are going to be all right, despite the adults’ best efforts.
Gary, Indiana, has an ongoing lawsuit against gun manufacturers over their tacit allowance of illegal gun sales. The Indiana Republican Party is trying to pass a bill that would invalidate the suit and protect gun manufacturers from liability.
A former minister in the Christian cult The Truth admitted to molesting a young boy through his role in the ‘church,’ part of a decades-long pattern of abuse and cover-ups in the home-based movement, also known as Two by Twos.
A doctor who went to Gaza to help victims of Israel’s ongoing assault wrote in the LA Times that what he saw “wasn’t war – it was annihilation.”
In the face of growing hate towards Palestinians, some chefs and restaurant owners who come from or trace their ancestry to Palestine are choosing to emphasize their identity
The 76ers’ proposed downtown arena is likely to cost the city millions in lost tax revenue while also risking Philly’s vibrant Chinatown neighborhood. Let the owners pay for it themselves.
There’s a huge measles outbreak in Florida thanks to parents rejecting universal medical advice and skipping the MMR vaccine. Florida’s Surgeon General is telling parents they can still send their unvaccinated kids to school. Measles is the most contagious virus that infects humans, and it can kill children and adults, either during the infection itself or up to a decade later due to an incurable neurological condition called SSPE. This is abject insanity. The MMR vaccine is safe, effective, and led to the (temporary) eradication of measles from the Americas, until Andrew Wakefield and the fucking idiots who follow him brought it back.
KFF Health News looks at how these fringe anti-science views became so dominant in American politics, and what it might mean this November.
Meanwhile, vaccine denialists are everywhere, downplaying the severity of measles. I see it every day on the disinformation hellhole of Twitter. Measles kills, maims, deafens, and more. It can lead to weeks of hospitalizations. I would love to see health insurers insist on vaccinations for coverage, because why should my premiums go up just because someone else was too dumb or misinformed to make the right choice?
West Virginia Republicans saw this outbreak and decided to exempt private schools from the state’s strict vaccination requirements, because I guess having the nation’s highest death rate from opioids wasn’t good enough!
Timor-Leste (formerly known as East Timor) is battling simultaneous outbreaks of three mosquito-borne diseases: Zike, dengue, and chikungunya. We need more releases of genetically modified mosquitoes and mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia bacteria to reduce their numbers before these diseases spread further.
Tim Burke, formerly of Deadspin, was indicted in Florida for allegedly hacking Fox News video streams of Kanye West and Tucker Carlson … that Burke says were unprotected by passwords or other encryption. This is a freedom of the press issue. You could contact your Representative or Senator, especially if any serve on their respective Judiciary Committees, as I’ve done. An attack on any journalist is an attack on all of us.
A Texas attorney poisoned his pregnant then-wife with abortion pills, which didn’t cause the pregnancy to terminate but caused enough damage to the fetus that their daughter has developmental delays. He was sentenced to merely 180 days in jail, because abortion bans are not about saving babies (or fetuses), but about subjugating and controlling women.
Abortion rights are a consistent, winning issue for Democrats, writes Ilyse Hogue in the New Republic, and the party needs to lean into that more.
We got an answer, belatedly, on the Hugo Awards’ exclusion of certain works, notably those by Chinese or Chinese-American authors, and it was craven submission to Chinese government involvement. Dave McCarty, a sci-fi fan who was head of the Hugo Committee for 2023, and others resigned and/or were censured. One of the winners, Adrian Tchaikovsky, has already said he will no longer cite or list the award among his honors.
This satirical column from The Crimson mocks national reporters’ obsession with campus life at Harvard.
Posts from the transphobic ‘activist’ LibsOfTikTok led to at least 21 bomb threats against schools, libraries, small businesses, and more. Twitter has done nothing to shut Chaya Raichik down, despite the real-world consequences to her actions.
Pamela Paul wrote an anti-trans editorial in The New York Times. It was riddled with inaccuracies.
The co-founder of the anti-LGBTQ, book-banning advocacy group Moms for Liberty engaged in threesomes with her husband and another woman. Bridget Ziegler is on the school board in Sarasota County, Florida, and her husband Christian (heh) was the former head of the Florida Republican Party. MfL’s influence appears to be waning as more people catch on to their radical agenda.
Seattle cops raided several LGBTQ+ bars in the city, taking photos of patrons, citing regulations banning “lewd conduct.” Owners and patrons fought back, and the state’s liquor board, which oversees such businesses, agreed to knock it off and end this collaboration with the police.
New York’s Nassau County issued an order banning teams with trans athletes from using public fields or arenas, yet another pointless, cruel rule pandering to bigots, a solution in search of a problem.
Republicans smeared Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) over comments she made – but they used a bogus translation to do so.
An old indie blog called The Hairpin that closed in 2018 has come back to life as a zombie clickbait farm.
A mother of four was shot and killed while driving to work in Philadelphia in November, and her family says the police aren’t doing enough to try to solve the case.
There’s a Kickstarter open for Conservas, a new solo bag-building game from designer Scott Almes (Tiny Epic Galaxes, Beer & Bread).

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: abortion, board game news, florida, guns, harvard, hugo awards, indiana, lgbt rights, links, longreads, new york, philadelphia, religion, seattle, social media, stick to baseball, texas, vaccines, west virginia

→ February 20, 2024
→ By keith

Klawchat 2/20/24.

Starting at 1:30 pm ET. Subscribers to The Athletic can read my entire prospect rankings package, including the top 100 prospects, the ten guys who just missed, my farm system rankings, and my top 20 prospects & org reports for all 30 teams.

Keith Law: I started drifting to a different place. Klawchat.

Ben (MN): I’m traveling for work but have one free day in San Diego. Any food recommendations?
Keith Law: The Crack Shack, Juniper & Ivy, Bird Rock Coffee, The Mission.

Brett: FYI, Petty up to 99 in Reds camp today. Good early sign but increases injury risk as well I suppose…the baseball gods giveth and taketh. Thank you for all you do especially with the mental health side of things. It’s so important to make people feel like it is OK to get help, that nothing is wrong with them. I am in healthcare and have been getting mental health services since Covid in part because of your example. My life is much better for it, thank you…
Keith Law: He just hasn’t held that velocity as a starter for two years now. I did have delivery concerns with him in HS when he was 97-100 or so, but he toned that down last year. And you’re welcome – I probably should be talking about that stuff even more.

Joe: The Dodgers gave up two players with some value for Trey Sweeney, so I was surprised that he didn’t get a mention in the LA write up. Do you think they did the trade because they needed the roster spots, or do they see something you don’t?
Keith Law: Maybe they see something they can do with the swing, but I just don’t think he’s anything but an up-and-down guy. He would have made a lot of top 20s, just not the Dodgers’.

SamStead: Hi Keith! Do you think Brett Baty settles into an above-average regular at 3B? What’s his outlook? Thanks!
Keith Law: The bat will be. The glove is debatable but I would let him stay there for now.

Mike: What do you make of the Brewers trying Frelick out at 2B/3B? Is it a move because of a crowded OF or more of an indictment of their options in the infield?
Keith Law: Chourio’s got the contract, Mitchell can play center, Black could play center if you can live with the arm … I think this is about getting Frelick into the lineup.

Guest: Chances Jett Williams gets called up before the AS break? I think the kid is legit.
Keith Law: I’d say zero. He’s barely 20 and has 6 games above A-ball. Also they have this guy at shortstop, you may have heard of him…

Chris: Keith, you wrote that Wilyer Abreu might be a 4-WAR player if he sticks in Center. If he can’t handle Center and ends up in Right, what’s the equivalent of that? I assume that’s still a productive regular, just not a star?
Keith Law: Yep, spot on.

Richard: You rock Keith! Very much appreciate the effort you put into the prospect / org rankings…it’s the primary reason I have the Athletic each year.
Keith Law: Thank you! It’s exhausting but now it’s all on the site and I can turn the page to the draft.

Adam: Is Michael Harris better than you expected? If so what did you miss?
Keith Law: I don’t think so … I might have been light on the contact, as he’s not striking out as much as I’d feared given his mediocre pitch recognition.

Jason: when will the corporate welfare for stadiums end? now the dbacks want to hold phoenix hostage on a 26 year old stadium
Keith Law: When voters consistently tell these owners to fuck off – and tell their legislators the same – the corporate welfare will end. if your state rep/senator votes for one of these handouts, you vote against them.

Tom: I really enjoy your podcasts on the athletic! Are you doing more anytime soon?
Keith Law: Nothing imminent.

Preston: At what point will any of the Boras Four just tell him to get a deal done? I presume they are along for the ride but can’t imagine they would want to go too long, right?
Keith Law: They know the deal. Scott gets his guys paid in the end, but it can take a while. You choose him as your agent, you’re signing up for this.

Bobby B.: Thoughts on Puerto Rico? Obviously an older board game, but imo one of the greats
Keith Law: Agreed it’s one of the greats, looking forward to the revised edition some time this spring.

Troy: Was Robert Gasser anywhere near the Top 100?
Keith Law: He was not.

Morgan: Who are a few prospects you see shooting up the rankings for 2025?
Keith Law: For every team, I included a Sleeper prospect, who is someone not currently on the top 100 but who I predict will make the top 100 next offseason. I think I had 6-7 guys do that this year (and I promise I’m not juking the stats – I don’t put guys on the 100 just to make myself right!).

Garrett: I loved this line in your assessment of Elijah Green (while also being said this has to be said now): “We can’t draft and develop this type of player as an industry if MLB prevents teams from giving them the development challenges they need.”
Keith Law: People often ask what rule change I would make if I were Commissioner. It would be allowing teams to operate a short-season affiliate if they want to. I’m pretty confident 20+ teams would choose yes.
Keith Law: This chat is brought to you by Oreos. They didn’t sponsor it. I’m just eating Oreos right now.

Guest: So glad to have KLawchats back. Just passing along a note, that while you don’t write your lists for fantasy baseball, many of us subscribers do love to use them to advise our fantasy decisions. While I get the timing of releasing the lists post Super Bowl, many of us would get more value from them earlier prior to our early February drafts. Appreciate the work.
Keith Law: Thank you. That decision was made above my head.

Mike: Hi Klaw, tough 2023 for former Dbacks prospect Ryne Nelson. Do you think he can become a viable number 4ish starting pitcher still for them?
Keith Law: I do. Might give him a half year or more in long relief this year.

Alex: Have you seen the new Master and Margarita movie? I haven’t yet, and the book has always struck me as kind of unfilmable.
Keith Law: A reader told me about it the other day but I haven’t seen anything about it otherwise, and I agree, it always seemed like it would lose way too much on the screen.

Holly: On the Nats’ writeup, no mention of Mason Denaburg. Is he still a prospect at all?
Keith Law: He walked 49 guys in 36 innings in low A last year, mostly in relief. I imagine he’s a release candidate at this point.

Alex: Can’t say I was surprised by Atlanta’s ranking – as you said, they traded everybody. On the other hand, as an Atlanta fan, it seems to me that you’re *supposed* to trade your prospects to improve the major league roster. Are there any of Atlanta’s major moves that you would seriously question?
Keith Law: I think giving up Malloy for Joe Jimenez was an overpay. And I believe I said at the time that I wasn’t convinced Sean Murphy would be better than William Contreras, certainly not enough to justify trading everything they did. But overall, no, I think Anthopoulos has done an excellent job, including his big trades.

Tom: Can you give some detailed thoughts on the Red Sox royals Schreiber trade?
Keith Law: The David Sandlin prospect writeup is now in the Red Sox top 20. No-brainer trade for them.

RC: Two completely unrelated questions for you…
1) What level of panic would you have if you were Mike Elias regarding the rotation regarding Bradish and Means? Is it worth shelling out money for another starter or making another trade?
2) I’m considering a job offer in Newark, Delaware. How do you like living in the state? What would you recommend for food and activities for a second visit on home scouting?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t panic, but they still have more position players in AAA/majors than they can use and I would at least see what trading some combination of them – Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Westburg, etc. – might get back in a starter. More worried about Bradish.

As for Delaware, it’s great overall. Lots to do here, great little downtown in Wilmington with some fantastic restaurants (Bardea, Le Cavalier, La Fia, two food halls), two art-house cinemas, two venues for concerts and traveling theater, low cost of living for the mid-Atlantic. Public schools are underfunded, though, and there hasn’t been great appetite to remedy that. Check out Winterthur, Longwood Gardens (just over the line in PA), & the Nemours Estate.

Egan: What are you expectations for Brandon Barriera this year development wise? Future rotation arm?
Keith Law: Let’s see how the body looks. Had high upside in 2022, has supposedly shed most of the extra weight he put on last year, but when a guy lets himself go like that I want to see the commitment to his conditioning.

John Sterling: (on the Dominguez v Spencer Jones question) I know you avoid being influenced by other expert rankings, but I know you also do take in information from other analysts/experts. Help me understand why there seems to be some uncommon divergence about two high profile prospects in same org who both spent most of last summer in the Somerset Patriots outfield. Thanks.
Keith Law: I assume we’re valuing different things.

DH: Suppose Samuel Basallo were a solid average defensive 1B, and not a catcher. Where do you suppose he’d rank in top 100?
Keith Law: Middle, probably 40-60 range.

Adam D.: Obviously without naming names, have you ever found yourself gravitating away from a scouting source after too many reports that turned out to be mostly untrue?
Keith Law: Yes.

JW: Have contracts to pre-arb players started to turn in the direction that they aren’t actually good for teams? The news of the potential Alvarez extension got me thinking that the Mets would need to be getting so much value on the back end to give up the cheap early years. They way they are structured based on actual cash basically aligns with what these guys would be making anyway, so all the teams are actually getting is the ability to have the player for more prime years without having to commit to post prime years (the value of which we dont know yet), but the cost of that is giving up years where they are actually cheap (the value of which we do know). Am I over thinking this?
Keith Law: I don’t think the early year salaries in those deals are close to high enough to make these a negative for the teams. If they’re right, they’re getting like $30 million of production (or more) for $2 million.

Andrew: Anything in Elly’s rookie year that makes you concerned about him long-term? Is it all about contact with him?
Keith Law: Yes, primarily about contact. Could end up in CF rather than SS but I expect he’d be plus there.

Bobby: Who do you predict will win ROY in NL and AL?
Keith Law: I’ll do full predictions in late March when we see who’s actually getting the playing time. Just a stab right now, I’d say Caminero and Noelvi.

dallas: Do you believe there is a flaw in stockpiling middle infield prospects like the pirates and Cleveland have done over the years? It seems like (with PGH) especially all their minor leaguers have the same profile.
Keith Law: There’s no flaw in that specifically, but maybe there’s a flaw if they’re all 5’7″ and unlikely to stay at short?

Robert: Putting aside the economics of whether or not public financing of sports stadiums makes sense, what do you think of White Sox ownership asking the public for $1 billion to pay for a new stadium, when they are one of only two franchises who’ve never offered a $100M contract to a player?
Keith Law: I don’t see a connection between those two. The purpose of public subsidies for private enterprise is economic development, not helping the team win. The economic development doesn’t justify the subsidies, of course, but that’s a separate question.

DH: Did his first year performance decrease Volpe’s best-case ceiling for you?
Keith Law: No. He didn’t belong in the majors to start the year.

Pool: Who is the international prospect that will be stateside for the first time this season that you are most excited to get eyes on?
Keith Law: Felnin Celesten.

Morgan (NY): You buying into Stanton’s body transformation as a harbinger of athleticism and renewed success at the plate?
Keith Law: No, it’s a function of health, not conditioning.

James: It’s spring training. I’m in the worst shape of my life. Any thought as to why the Boras 4 hasn’t signed yet? Can the Cubs really go with PCA and Morel at 3B instead of Bellinger/Chapman and expect to contend?
Keith Law: Yes, they can expect to contend in that division. I have a feeling they end up re-signing Bellinger though.

James: Ever play Code Names? We’ve been playing it a lot lately, lots of fun.
Keith Law: Yes, solid party game. Not my favorite of the genre but I’ll always play it.

Marlins Fan: Marlins have a bunch of (very) young and raw 18/19 year old pitchers outside of Meyer/White like Juan De La Cruz, Walin Castillo, Karson Milbrandt, Julio Mendez, Lester Nin, Damelvi Tineo. Any of those that you like outside of De La Cruz who you ranked fairly high?
Keith Law: Milbrandt was up there too.

Guest: I assume Caleb Durbin and Tyler Hardman are nothing more than org players? The latter not even getting an NRI is a bad sign.
Keith Law: that’s how I view them.

Neal: The Phillies can’t possibly consider extending Bryce Harper can they?
Keith Law: I hope not, he’s tall enough as it is.

kevin: surprised to see Jake Gelof blurb about him just being a corner OF. Is 3B not possible any longer? thanks!
Keith Law: Don’t see him every sticking at third.

Bobby: You are higher on Cam Collier than most. I have him on my dynasty baseball team. Just curious, why should I stay optimistic with him despite a lackluster 2023. I know he’s obviously young, but what is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Middle-of-the-order bat ceiling. Started the year slow as he had a lot of adjustments to make, but improved substantially as the season went on – and was only 18, younger than some high school draftees last year.

Zak: What’s the next rule change you’d like to see implemented at the MLB level?
Keith Law: ABS is coming eventually, but in the meantime just raising the bottom of the strike zone slightly would probably get us a lot more balls hit into play.

Troy: Donaldson over Black last season. This season it doesn’t appear he’ll have a starting job to start the season. Does Black need more time in AAA? Seems odd the Brewers aren’t carving out a spot for him. Even if it’s super utility guy.
Keith Law: He can’t throw enough for third so I’m not sure what their intention is, with Frelick perhaps getting the nod at second.

Brent: Noah Schultz is an exciting prospect for the White Sox. Seems like the biggest concern for him is health. If he can pitch like he did for 120 plus innings instead of 20 something. Can he become the team’s top prospect next year? Thanks.
Keith Law: Yes, but he ended the year on the IL with a shoulder impingement so I doubt they push his workload that much.

James: Was looking at the 2016 draft. Will Smith the only all star in the first 41 picks before round 2 which has three all stars and round 3 which also has three. Two best players (Burnes, Bieber) went in round four. Was that just an odd year? I feel like normally teams nail at least half the top ten picks
Keith Law: Yes, that year’s draft wasn’t great at the time and it’s been awful in hindsight. Moniak, Senzel, Ray, Puk, Pint, Collins, Groome … yeeeeesh.

gach zreinke: Thoughts and timetable on Dodgers’ Hyun-Seok Jang?
Keith Law: Hasn’t thrown a pitch yet. I imagine we’ll all see him in spring training.

Mike: Is Colson Montgomery a middle of the order hitter on a contending team?
Keith Law: That would be his absolute ceiling – if he gets to his peak hit/power and also stays healthy. He just did not look right last year even after he returned, which is why I had him outside the top 25.

Mike B: Great job as always with the prospect lists. So I know you didn’t have time yet for a full write up of the O’s/Brewers trade. Do you think this was the O’s finally doing a good job of digging into their prospect depth to get a top mitch pitcher? I thought it was a good trade for both despite Yankees fans saying the O’s gave up less than the Yanks were asked for!
Keith Law: Yes, I think it was a good trade for both sides.

Guest: Everything I read about Wilken makes him sound like.a legit bat. Just on O, is he a Guy?
Keith Law: I think so.

Matt: Assuming Franco never plays again, are the Rays off the hook paying him?
Keith Law: If he’s in prison or simply unable to secure a work visa, yes, they’re off the hook.

kevin: what was the biggest reason for cartaya’s down season and is it fixable?
Keith Law: I asked a lot of people that question and the consensus answer was “I don’t know.” If he was hurt enough to destroy his performance, no one seems to know about it. It wasn’t an obvious failing, like an inability to hit a high fastball. People who loved him a year ago were befuddled too. That’s concerning because if you don’t know what’s wrong, you don’t necessarily know what to do next. I would return him to AA to start the year, at least.

CVD: Are the Lerners actually keeping the Nationals, or is this just posturing like Angelos did with the Orioles?
Keith Law: I assume this is posturing.

Caleb: Have you played any of the Wingspan expansions? I have the Euro expansion and love the new birds, but I’m afraid the Oceania expansion (with Nectar) will change the mechanics too much.
Keith Law: I have not, unfortunately.
Keith Law: My Wyrmspan review copy is on its way, though!

Guest: Did the Padres ruin Luis Torrens?
Keith Law: Taking him in the rule 5 draft may have ruined him.

Hoobastank: Trying to make sense of the Tigers big improvement in farm rankings. Would you credit it mostly to the difference between how Harris and Co handle player development compared to Avila? Anything specific in differences? Such a huge turnaround, in a years time, all from guys drafted from the previous regime. Has to be one of the quickest impacts a new FO has a had on existing talent on a farm, no?
Keith Law: Strong draft, some big steps forward from guys in the system thanks to new PD folks, and a lot of other teams sliding due to promotions or other factors. I do think the minors as a whole are down – the #5 team this year might have been #8-10 a year ago.

James: You put so much work into these rankings and the draft. Are there any cheap teams that aggregate your and other’s thoughts, especially with the draft, since it’s such a crap shoot? Or could your thoughts on someone like Owen Caissie be used for/against them in trade discussions?
Keith Law: I know teams that take my rankings, MLB’s, BA’s etc. for the draft and use them in their draft models. I always say that’s not the purpose of the rankings, but I can’t stop them from doing so.

Jay: Atlanta is stretching out Reynaldo Lopez in the Spring. Any chance he can stick as a starter?
Keith Law: He’s never had the arsenal or command to start. He can hold his velocity deep into games, but that’s never been enough for me to consider him a starter – I got a ton of grief for leaving him off my top 100 for that reason.

Shodai: Who would you rather have starting in CF in 2025- PCA or Cody Bellinger ignoring salary?
Keith Law: I’ll go on a limb here and say Bellinger.

Ryan: Assuming he stays healthy and remains a starting pitcher, how long will it take to build Reggie Crawford up until he is MLB ready?
Keith Law: Feels like it could be two more years in the minors, no? He barely pitched this past year coming off TJ and never pitched that much before.

Brian: Who are some former prospects who’ve faded that you anticipate a breakout for this year? Last year you called Leody Taveras and Cole Ragans. Alek Thomas? Brett Baty?
Keith Law: I’ll do the breakouts list in mid-March – I haven’t thought much about that piece yet.

Brian: Who was your biggest disappointment when doing the rankings? Was there one player going in you thought would have had a bigger impact in 2023 and would be a star that just didn’t materialize?
Keith Law: Cartaya was originally on the list in the 70s or so, but as I circulated it to sources & also considered him further I realized I had no argument to put him on the list except that he was on it last year.

James: Who would you have taken 1-1 in the last draft?
Keith Law: Crews or Langford. Not a pitcher.

Ryan: Your report on Jun-Seok Shim was really encouraging. Do you have any additional info or that you could share?
Keith Law: I don’t hold information back. It’s all in the articles.

Andrew: Cleveland traded Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers. Why’d they do that? And has Clev. turned into a sneaky bad FO? Caminero, Nolan Jones, and Yandy would look pretty good in that lineup.
Keith Law: Brito’s going to be good and I don’t think Jones has that kind of year if he’s not playing at altitude. I think they didn’t know what they had in Caminero and the Rays out-scouted them. (Cleveland has cut its scouting staff, and that may be hurting them.)

Adam D.: Love the sleeper note on Rayner Arias potentially making a big jump. Am I crazy to think that this time next year the Giants could have five top-100 players (Eldridge, Arias, Whisenhunt, Martin and Crawford)?
Keith Law: Seems really optimistic on the last two. Maybe one of them gets there, but both is a lot to ask.

Steve: Is there any hope left for Luis Patiño ?
Keith Law: I’d still take a flier on him.

James: Who has better chance of winning the pennant again? Dbacks or Rangers?
Keith Law: Rangers but if I were betting I’d bet the field instead.

James: Is Lawlar blocked? Is he better than Perdomo? Will Lawlar start at AAA?
Keith Law: Perdomo shouldn’t block Lawlar when they believe Lawlar is ready.

Jason: what is the ceiling with jackson chourio? given all the factors (his deal, etc) should he be on the MLB club opening day?
Keith Law: I would really rather they give him time in AAA, now with no pressure around a call-up since he’s getting paid regardless. I think he’s going to be a superstar – a top 10 player in MLB at his peak.

Brian: Do you ever discuss your sources with other prospect writers? I’m curious how secretive the world is/isn’t when you all know the same people (and most say they cross reference lists with scouts), and how that plays into the differential product of the lists.
Keith Law: Not names, necessarily, but I might say “the Mets told me” something when talking to Eric or Jonathan.

Red: What are your thoughts on the Fanatics jersey fiasco? Seems like everyone agrees that they are crap.
Keith Law: Not really my lane but they did look bad.

Chris: Keith – we just heard another sob story for a billionaire owner (this time out of Arizona) laying the groundwork for extending a hand out to taxpayers to fund a stadium deal that (i) isn’t necessary, and (ii) will NOT create any economic benefit for the community. It seems like a simple solution is for Congress to make the anti-trust exemption conditioned on no public financing for stadiums. For every senator that accepts money from wealthy owners that is impacted with the prospect of security a MLB franchise in her or his home state, there’s another that is impacted by a franchise leaving. Not necessary a question, but more of a commentary. /fin
Keith Law: You’ll never get this to happen, though. MLB lobbies Congress and there is no real opposing entity pushing money into DC like that.

James: Will Skenes debut this year?
Keith Law: I imagine so.

Bobby: Thoughts on Jung Hoo Lee? Probably harder to scout international guys but you would have more information than the average American fan has access to
Keith Law: I wrote about him and the signing here.

Blood on the Tracks: Chase Burns or Brody Breckt?
Keith Law: I saw Brecht Friday, think I’d lean Burns.

James: Was Gabe Kapler a good manager? I feel like the giants were always over performing
Keith Law: I think he was. He got fired for failing to overperform last year.

AnalyticsPlant: Klaw – your prospect work seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train. Why are you so popular?
Keith Law: I am not contaminating the planet.

Dave: The Pirates handling of Henry Davis seems … odd? He struggled in right field with minimal experience at the position, which seemed to carry over to the plate. With Endy hurt, it looks like he would catch but is now fighting for a backup role behind Grandal. What would you do with him this season?
Keith Law: Catch him every day. I’d be surprised if he really was the backup behind Grandal – I haven’t heard/read anything about that, and Grandal was below replacement level last year.

Matt: I thought it was funny the 49ers didn’t know the rules of overtime. Imagine that happening in the 10th inning of Game 7 and the closer didn’t know the game would be over if he gave up a hit.
Keith Law: Same.

Aaron: The Oceania expansion mechanics updates are very nice and go a long way to balancing actions on the board. Egg spamming is not quite as viable
Keith Law: And Asia has a two-player mode I’d love to try.

Ryan: Speaking of Padres and Luis. Is Campusano just another example of catchers needing more time to develop?
Keith Law: I think so.

Gsteve27: I know u often remind the listeners/readers that baseball is hard but what do you think was the cause for Gavin Stones and Miguel Vargas disappointing season after having a lot of success in the minors? Are you still believing in Vargas as you are in Stone?
Keith Law: Read what I wrote about Stone in the top 100.

James: Hunter Goodman from the Rockies just a guy? Could he be a GUY?
Keith Law: He’s 1b only, maybe, and swings and misses way too often. I don’t see it.

James: Are you surprised more teams haven’t used the Braves strategy more of locking up young players to long deals early?
Keith Law: Oh I think a lot of them try.

James: Does the transfer portal influence the way you look at a player or not or are baseball evaluations mostly immune to that?
Ryan: What’s a reasonable MLB peak for Ethan Salas look like, assuming he gets past the inherent teenager catcher risk?
Keith Law: Transfer portal doesn’t affect player evaluations – I have no issue with players moving to another school for NIL $ or playing time or any other reason.
Keith Law: Salas looks like a monster, could be ++ defense with power and patience. We haven’t had a prospect this young with this performance since Harper.

Brian: Can we expect more Klawchats soon?
Keith Law: I plan to, travel permitting.

Caleb: Cards fan, and they have the #8 pick this summer. I’m going to guess this year’s top 10 isn’t as loaded as last year’s, but how does it compare to an average draft?
Keith Law: Right now it looks below the norm because the high school hitting class is very weak.

Adam: Hey Keith. Thank you for all your work. It’s always a fun time when your lists come out. Have you ever thought about compiling a ranking of your sleepers that you do for each team? Would be interested in the their order of where you see them ranked against each other.
Keith Law: All 30 sleepers ranked? I had never considered that.

AJ: Vlad Jr. settling in as a .270, 30 HR guy would be a bummer after what he did in 2021. Do you give him a mulligan for the last 2 years? Or did he just have his career year early? Troy Glaus style
Keith Law: A two-year mulligan is a lot. Kind of stunned by the low BABIPs. Not like he doesn’t hit the ball hard. His actual stats were well below what you’d expect from his batted-ball data, so there’s some reason to hope he’ll bounce back beyond just a .270/.340/.460 line.

Jay: Who would you take 1.1 in this year’s draft as of today?
Keith Law: The most honest answer is that I don’t have enough feel for these guys yet. If you really, really want a name, I think it’s Wetherholt, who also left last night’s game with a hamstring injury so I may have to wait a bit to see him.

Shodai: Last year there were a lot of negative opinions out on Miguel Amaya, did his MLB stint help answer any of those questions for him going forward? Also do you ever randomly wonder what Junior Lake is up to these days? #callback
Keith Law: Last year, I wrote this: “he could end up the Cubs’ catcher before the year is out as a 20-homer type with some patience and better defense than Willson Contreras offered.” Probably too high on the power, but I think the rest is going to turn out to be right.

Steven: Any thoughts on Jason Benneti moving to Detroit broadcast team?
Keith Law: He’s one of the best. Glad he found a good spot.

Ryan: Only two years for Crawford? That surprises me because like you said, he has barely pitched. Thanks for the work you do!
Keith Law: I imagine they’ll try to get him 15-20 starts this year for 60-80 innings, then bump him up some more in 2025, and in 2026 hope to get him to the majors – unless they want to make him a straight reliever before that.
Keith Law: Of course that assumes he performs well. Has the stuff, certainly.

Guest: When talking to people, why do they value prospects over actual MLB talent. One guy told me he likes Jackson Holliday over Bo Bichette…isn’t Bichette Holliday’s peak??
Keith Law: I think Holliday can be better than Bichette, but how I value the two would depend on the team. Are you trying to win in 2024? You’d rather have Bichette.
Keith Law: I think Holliday will be better than Bichette, to be clear.

David: What should the Red Sox starting OF be this year if you had your pick?
Keith Law: Abreu, Rafaela, Duran, with Yoshida DHing?

Richard: Excited that we get to see Yainer Diaz catch most days (so long Maldy!). What kind of output do you think is reasonable for him as an everyday guy?
Keith Law: .270/.300/.475, 20 homers or so?

Harold: Although it would be hard to gather the data to answer this definitively, what percentage of the time does a pitcher, such as Bradish, end up requiring TJ after a UCL sprain that they try to remedy through PRP?
Keith Law: I don’t know if anyone knows the answer to this, but that players try PRP because it’s not major surgery and in most aspects of life you pick the non-surgical option first before the surgical one.

J.P.: Thoughts on Dom Smith’s signing? Here I thought Busch was all set to play 1B for the Cubs, and now he’s as blocked as he was with the Dodgers, apparently.
Keith Law: The Cubs signed Smith to a minor-league deal. He’s not blocking Busch.

Zane: I feel like the Reds have a slew of talented young international prospects. Who is your favorite out of Carlos Jorge, Hector Rodriguez, Alfredo Duno, and Ricardo Cabrera?
Keith Law: That’s answered in the Reds top 20 – it’s the guy I ranked highest.

Sammy: Thoughts on Colt Keith this year? Will he be able to handle 2B?
Keith Law: I think his bat will play anywhere and second base might be a challenge for him, at least in the short term.
Keith Law: I know scouts who think he should just play first base and rake. I’m not there yet.

James: If you notice a player in another club is undervalued like the Rays did, how do you go after them without tipping the other team off?
Keith Law: Subtlety. It’s a negotiation – you don’t tip off the other side to what you really want, and you might ask for more (give us Brayan Rocchio!) and when they laugh, you say “oh okay fine we’ll take some rando off your DSL roster.”

Guest: Hey Keith, reading through the Rockies Top 20 right now and truly blown away by how bad they’ve been drafting in the first round. All of Veen, Montgomery and Hughes showing real signs of missing. This has been a long-running issue with the team, it feels like. What strikes you as the issue? Scouting, development, pure dumb luck?
Keith Law: Hughes got hurt – different than the other two, although Veen’s had injuries too. But I don’t see Hughes as a bust at all.

Sammy: Amed Rosario just signed with TB- what does that mean..
Keith Law: He’s about to have the best year of his career?

Woodsy: I, too, am traveling to for work, but going to Atlanta. Any food recommendations? Thanks, KLaw!
Keith Law: I haven’t had a regular dinner in Atlanta in some time, although I love Ponce City Market (Spiller Park for coffee) and Krog Street Market. A few of my ATL favorites have closed, including Empire State South and the Lawrence.

James: We are somehow even more divided politically that four years ago. Any chance a player wouldn’t sign with a TX/CA team because of their political beliefs?
Keith Law: Haven’t heard of that, although I can imagine someone not wanting to raise their daughters in Texas (or, if there were a team there, in Alabama).

Chris: Manfred seems pretty intelligent and self aware. But every time he opens his mouth when asked to comment on the A’s move to Las Vegas, he seems petty, dismissive, and completely out of touch, particularly when it comes to empathizing with Oakland fans. Is he that beholden to ownership where he can’t even seem to acknowledge reality?
Keith Law: I think Manfred doesn’t have an ‘inside voice,’ so to speak. He doesn’t soften the message or speak in platitudes when talking to the public – which on the one hand is refreshing, even though it’s also rather telling.

Matt: Even the mayor of Vegas thinks the A’s should go back to Oakland. Is Vegas a long term answer for a MLB team?
Keith Law: I do not think Las Vegas will ever be a good market for MLB. It doesn’t have the population/demographics for 81 home games, and climate change is only going to make it harder to play or live there. There are other markets with more favorable characteristics, including Nashville, Portland, and Austin.

Ty: what pitch data stats do you look at when compiling your lists?
Keith Law: Not to be glib, but everything I can get my hands on. I want to know everything I can, and then I try to work from the facts – data, scouting reports, my own observations – to the conclusion.

Guest: Should the Tigers have taken Jenkins?
Keith Law: They should have taken Langford, although that in no way is a knock on Clark (or Jenkins).

Ben (MN): Is there any trustable data on how much money MLB teams make per season? Reporters discuss the Twins receiving a lower payment from their TV deal this season as if the team would be operating at a “loss” by maintaining the same payroll as last year. I find it hard to believe that they are breaking even in a normal year and that any increased expenses would mean a loss. Wouldn’t a lower TV payment but a similar payroll likely mean the team just makes less of a profit for this one year?
Keith Law: I do not believe any MLB team is actually operating at a loss. You can make a paper loss on your income statement but these businesses generate stupid amounts of cash.

Morgan: First time in Savannah and Charleston. 2 days each. What are some can’t miss things?
Keith Law: Was just in Charleston over the weekend. Finally ate at FIG, which was a bucket-list place for me. Best part was actually the sticky sorghum pudding dessert.

JRG: Thanks for all the writeups on prospects. There are a number of guys who seem to have all the tools, but just never can put it together. Over the course of your career, what was the best example of a guy that didn’t seem like he would put it together, but then everything finally clicked for him and he made the leap?
Keith Law: Josh Hamilton’s probably not the best answer, although his name was the first to come to mind. I’ll have to think about this one as I can’t find a really apt example.

ZAS: Do you expect Cleveland to be aggressive and try to get Deyvsion De Los Santos AB’s? I assume Manzardo will be forced to start the year in AAA although I feel like he’s ready.
Keith Law: I don’t think Deyvison is going to hit at all. He wasn’t even a top 20 guy for Arizona and wasn’t on my Guardians list. I really am not a fan.

Thai: Where in the top 100 would Roki Sasaki rank if he was eligible?
Keith Law: He’s not eligible and I haven’t given him anywhere near the consideration I gave all the guys I did put on the rankings (or just beyond it).

Leonard: Does Taj Bradley have enough effective pitches to solidify a spot in the TB rotation>
Keith Law: Yes.

Shodai: Speaking of Manfred and things that are bad for baseball, where would you put the odds of an industry shaking gambling scandal in the next 10 years of so? Based on other sports I’d say it’s a dead lock that some players are gonna get popped but I’m worried about something bigger.
Keith Law: 100% chance some player gets suspended for betting on games. Maybe 25% chance of a broader scandal. We have had a few scouts get caught up in gambling stuff, back in the early 2000s. The pervasive nature of sports betting now just makes it way more likely we have problems.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week but yes I do hope to do these more regularly again now that the top 100 is behind me. Thank you all for reading and for your questions. Stay safe!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ February 3, 2024
→ By keith

Music update, January 2024.

PSA: The top 100 prospects ranking runs on Monday for subscribers to The Athletic, followed by the ten guys who just missed on Tuesday.

January ended up a big month for new music, especially for new albums – it seems like a lot of artists/labels held stuff back from mid-November until after the New Year. Not included were some new tracks from ‘90s faves like the Jesus & Mary Chain, Buffalo Tom, and Black Grape. As always, if you can’t see the widget below, you can access the playlist here.

Liam Gallagher & John Squire – Just Another Rainbow. I can’t believe these two British rock icons (of Oasis and Stone Roses, respectively) have gotten together to put out an album, or that either of them sounds this good at their respective ages. The second single, “Mars to Liverpool,” was a bit of a letdown, though, and I’m hoping the record isn’t a bunch of mopers. Also props to Liam for knowing the order of colors in the visible spectrum.

Sprints – Heavy. This Irish punk act’s debut LP Letter to Self is going to end up on my top albums of the year, with this, “Adore Adore Adore,” “Up and Comer,” and “Literary Mind” all standouts.

Courting – We Look Good Together (Big Words). And Courting’s latest album, New Last Name, is also going to end up on my top albums of the year, leading with the poppy banger “Throw” followed by this track, with “Flex” and “The Wedding” also highlights.

Folly Group – Pressure Pad. Will Folly Group’s Down There! also make my top albums of the year list? We’ll have to wait on that one, but I’m a new fan of their experimental art-rock sound.

Bob Vylan – Hunger Games. “What will you win yourself tonight/spin the wheel for a chance at a hot meal.” The righteous anger here harkens back to the earliest days of punk, when working-class angst found its outlet in loud, short bursts of guitars and shouts.

Softcult – Heaven. I wasn’t familiar with Softcult until they popped up on my Spotify Release Radar playlist, which … well, sometimes the algorithm works, as they remind me a ton of early Lush (shoegaze era, not “Ladykillers”).

The Lemon Twigs – My Golden Years. I didn’t love the Lemon Twigs’ 2023 album Everything Harmony, although it made a slew of best-of lists for last year. This track has a way better melody than anything on that LP, with that same ‘60s power-pop sound that has some Beach Boys influence in the harmonies.

Talk Show – Red/White. Talk Show have been on my playlists for a few years now, so I was surprised to hear that their upcoming LP, Effigy, due out on the 16^th, is actually their debut. This last advance single has clearer vocals than in some of their other tracks, but still has that mélange of punk, goth, and industrial.

Waxahatchee & MJ Lenderman – Right Back To It. I’m here for just about anything Waxhatchee does, and it says something that I have a track by Lenderman, whose work as a solo artist and with the band Wednesday does nothing for me, on my playlist.

Ride – Peace Sign. Ride were part of the original shoegaze movement, so it amuses me that they’ve moved into a much different space, more psychedelic dream-pop than the minor-key noise of shoegaze. I like both iterations, for what it’s worth.

Shabazz Palaces feat. Stas THEE Boss & Irene Barber – Angela. Shabazz Palaces is Ishmael Butler, formerly known as Butterfly while he was in the seminal jazz-rap trio Digable Planets. His output under the new moniker, which used to be a duo until Tendai Maraire departed the group, is more experimental, with funk, jazz, and electronic elements, although hip-hop still finds its way into many of their tracks. This song comes off their upcoming album Exotic Birds of Prey, due out March 29^th.

Jamie xx – It’s So Good. Yes, yes it is. Jamie xx – of the xx, of course – had two all-timers from his first true solo effort, “Loud Places” and “SeeSaw,” but this is the first thing he’s released since that 2015 record that’s captured that same ebullient feeling.

Etta Marcus – Girls That Play. Marcus’s second album, The Death of Summer & Other Promises, came out on January 24^th. Her alt-pop style reminds me of Ingrid Michaelson, but less cloying.

Yard Act – We Make Hits. I loved Yard Act’s debut album, and they’ve clearly evolved their sound to incorporate some new elements without losing the sardonic, witty lyrics and offbeat rhythms that made The Overload so good. Where’s My Utopia? comes out March 1^st.

Sheer Mag – Moonstruck. Sheer Mag’s third album, Playing Favorites, comes out March 1^st, and this track might be the poppiest thing the Philly garage-rockers have ever put out.

The Libertines – Shiver. The likely lads are sounding older, wiser, and … sober? Carl Barât’s vocals will always give their music a rougher edge, but the Libertines may actually have grown up a little.

Khruangbin – A Love International. A peak-form instrumental track from the Texas Thai-jazz trio ahead of their new album À la Sala, due out April 5^th.

Bill Ryder-Jones – If Tomorrow Starts Without Me. The best track on Ryder-Jones’s acclaimed new album, Iechyd Da (a Welsh toast meaning “good health”), this is also one of the only ones that doesn’t move at the pace of a funeral dirge.

swim school – Give Me a Reason Why. More shoegazey goodness from this Glaswegian trio ahead of a headlining tour in the UK.

Sunny Day Real Estate – Novum Vetus. I don’t know if it needed to be seven minutes, but hey, any SDRE track is good by me. It’s their first new release in ten years, although the song itself originated in the sessions for the 1997 album How It Feels to Be Something On.

Real Estate – Haunted World. I had to put these two back to back, didn’t I? Otherwise I might have lined this up with the Lemon Twigs, as it’s got a similar vibe, an acoustic track that reminded a lot of the Shins.

GEMZ – Younger. GEMZ is Jen Wood and Ted Chen, and if you’re close to my age, you might remember Jen Wood’s short-lived band Tattle Tale from the early 1990s, or maybe you know her from her contributions to The Postal Service. This is her newest endeavor, but her vocals are the draw no matter the style of music.

TORRES – Happy Man’s Shoes. What an Enormous Room, TORRES’s sixth album, came out on January 26^th, and the tracks I’ve heard seem weirder than their previous output, but in a good way. I saw one review compare the LP to Goldfrapp, which I can definitely hear on this track.

Masta Ace & Marco Polo feat. Coast Contra – Certified. Yes, that is Masta Ace of the Juice Crew, which also featured Big Daddy Kane and Kool G Rap, and for a man of 57 who’s fighting MS he sounds damn good.

Judas Priest – Crown of Horns. These Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductees will release their nineteenth LP, Invincible Shield, in March, featuring this oddly upbeat track (which still has some great soloing). Glenn Tipton is credited as appearing on the album, although he’s now 76 and has been dealing with Parkinson’s for over a decade.

Tom McGovern & Cory Wong – Everything Smells Like Salmon. I’m not much for joke songs, either because they’re not funny or because the joke wears thin after one listen, but this one has some staying power. It’s pretty funny, the lyrics are very clever, and Wong’s guitar work is always worth a spin.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2024 in music, alternative, hip-hop, Music, shoegaze

→ January 27, 2024
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 1/26/24.

The top 100 prospects ranking will run on The Athletic on Monday, February 5^th, followed by the farm system rankings later that week, and the team top 20s start running on February 12^th.

My friend and one-time colleague Chris Crawford has had a tough year, losing his mother and just last week his stepfather while a site for which he was writing & producing podcasts decided to just not pay its people. He started a GoFundMe last week to help cover the mortgage on his parents’ house.

I’ve got a newsletter about 80% written and just need to finish it up this weekend. It’s free and you can sign up here.

And now, the links…
Longreads first: The New York Times reveals the extensive playbook behind the war on “wokeism” and DEI programs at major universities in red states. It’s a coordinated attack, much as the war on trans people and the war on abortion and the war on CRT, yet people keep falling for it – even people at major, nationally-read newspapers.
From the guardian Long Read, how the fact that so many hipster coffee shops look the same exemplifies the “tyranny of the algorithm.”
Martin Luther King, Jr., warned against the evils of militarism, racism, and poverty, yet the media outlets who praise him every January seem quite inured to the existence and impact of those three facets of our society.
Speaking of the death of journalism, a member of the family that runs the right-wing Sinclair Broadcasting Group – the same company that botched a bunch of MLB rights deals – bought the Baltimore Sun and immediately insulted the staff. This Twitter thread has more details on the meeting between David Smith and the Sun’s newsroom.
Right-wing troll Christopher Rufo’s push to oust Harvard President Claudine Gay cited the work of a data scientist with close ties to eugencists and so-called “race scientists.”
Climate scientist Michael Mann, who co-created the famous “hockey stick” graph showing the rapid warming of the planet, sued two conservative hacks who compared him to a serial child molester back in 2012. The case finally reached trial this week. One of the two, National Review’s Mark Steyn, stands by his comments, which I think tells you all you need to know.
Meanwhile, that bastion of leftist thought The Financial Times wrote that the world’s cities are not ready for climate change.
I reviewed R.F. Kuang’s Nebula-winning novel Babel earlier this week, right around the time that news broke that it had been declared ineligible for this year’s Hugo Awards – with zero explanation why. Those awards were held in China, and there’s reason to believe that she and at least one other author were targeted for their views by the Chinese Communist government. The head of the awards committee has steadfastly refused to provide any insight or further details on why it was declared ineligible; I reached out to the committee myself and have received no response. John Scalzi, himself a Hugo winner, wrote about it as well.
We are not ready for the onslaught of disinformation around the 2024 election that’s about to hit us, writes Brandy Zarozny for NBC News.
A midwife on Long Island (of course) faked vaccinations for 1500 children, giving them a worthless homeopathic pill, and won’t serve a day in prison, instead paying a $300,000 fine. I would much rather see her jailed for ten years than ever see someone behind bars for drug charges.
Jared Woodfill (R) is running for the Texas House of Representatives, with an endorsement from the state’s Attorney General Ken Paxton. A new lawsuit alleges that Woodfill covered up his former law partner’s Paul Pressler’s rapes of multiple boys even when alerted to Pressler’s crimes.
Big Tech will save no one but itself: Netflix caved to pressure from India’s Hindu nationalist movement by removing a film about a woman overcoming caste prejudice from its service.
Sam Altman really comes off like he has zero empathy for other humans in some of his latest comments about the future of AI.
Aaron Rupar interviewed the man behind the hilarious Twitter account New York Times Pitchbot.
Pitchfork reviewed the 25^th anniversary reissue of Swervedriver’s 99^th Dream album, which was plagued by label troubles and a rapidly shifting British music landscape. The title track is one of their best songs from any era or LP.
Can New Haven-style pizza spread beyond Connecticut? My guess is yes, of course, but most places will offer poor imitations of the real thing.
Asmodee and the LEGO Group jointly announced the fall release of a new board game, Monkey Palace, from two relatively new game designers.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: board game news, climate change, disinformation, diversity, hugo awards, india, journalism, links, longreads, pizza, racism, shoegaze, social media, stick to baseball, texas, vaccines

→ January 26, 2024
→ By keith

Sail.

Sail was one of the most unusual new games I played in 2023: a cooperative trick-taking game where you’re trying to jointly steer a ship around obstacles and sea monsters to reach the end of the path before you run out of turns or your ship takes too much damage. It’s a retheme of a Japanese game called Hameln Cave, published in a tiny box by the folks at Allplay, who specialize in publishing ‘big’ games in small boxes, including Pollen (a retheme of Reiner Knizia’s Samurai: the Card Game) and the underrated little dice-rolling game Sequioa.

Sail has a deck of cards in three suits where each number has a specific symbol on it, and the combination of symbols on the two cards played in each trick determines what happens on the map. You and your partner will each get a hand of cards, exchanging some before the first turn, and then you’ll play a series of tricks – without communicating with your partner – where you must follow suit if possible, which of course means trying to get rid of a suit and/or find a way to indicate what you have to your partner.

The map varies by game, and you can pick a scenario to suit your desired difficulty level, play through them in sequence as a campaign, or even design your own. Every map has obstacles in rocks and Kraken monsters, plus lines you must cross by the end of the Nth turn to stay in the game. You have a set number of turns to reach the finish line, the distance to which also varies by scenario. One major catch is that the spaces on the map are diamonds, so moving to an adjacent space isn’t the same as moving in a straight line, and you’ll have to try to tack back and forth to keep moving while also trying to avoid the islands and monsters. One great card combination lets you move straight to the diamond that only touches your current space at one point, but as you might imagine it’s hard to pull that off. If moving the ship would put the ship on an island or off the map, it doesn’t move at all, which results in a wasted turn.

The remaining combinations can run from the ‘not too bad’ to the ‘very bad,’ with many of them dealing damage to your ship. Cards numbered 1-3 have a Kraken symbol and when played with other cards numbered 1-3 or cards that just move your ship to an adjacent space, they damage your ship. The game begins with all cards numbered 1 or 2 in a separate Kraken deck, but those will enter the player deck any time you take damage from the Kraken. You might even take two damage if you both play a card numbered 1-3 in the same trick. You can deal damage to the Kraken, which allows you to take the lower card in the trick and discard it to the Kraken deck, improving your deck for the next round and also giving you more time, as you can lose the game when the Kraken deck is exhausted. If you both play cards with cannon symbols, you flip the next card in the deck and get something positive – moving the ship either to an adjacent space or forward, or discarding a low-numbered card to the Kraken deck.

Each round ends when one player wins their fourth trick, so you can extend rounds by trying to balance the number of tricks each player wins. When a round ends, you take damage based on where the Kraken meeple is on its board; this meeple moves up any time you take damage but the top card in the Kraken deck isn’t a numbered card but the Kraken card itself, after which you move that to the bottom of its deck and bump up the Kraken meeple so you take more damage after each round. If you ever take damage from the Kraken but there’s nothing else in its deck, you lose.

If you steer the ship on to the End Token on the map, you win immediately. As in most coop games, there are more ways to lose than to win: If you haven’t reached the End Token after 5 rounds, haven’t passed the checkpoints after rounds 2/4, exhaust the Kraken deck, or move the Kraken meeple to the final space, kindly labeled as “Dead.”

What really, really works about Sail is that it’s extremely tight – I don’t think this is a game you can ever win easily. I played this with my father, an experienced bridge player, and once we got the rhythm going, we did quite well … yet whenever we won a scenario, it was by the skin of our teeth. It made for an intense but fun gaming experience: there’s such satisfaction in pulling off the series of moves you need to win without being able to communicate. After a few rounds, we started to ‘read’ each other a bit more as well, so we could strategize without communicating, which I think is also key to this sort of game (The Mind would be the best-known example, I think).

You can buy it directly from Allplay for $1 cheaper than you’d pay on Amazon, including shipping, and you could check out Sequoia as well. I also just learned that they’re reprinting the Reiner Knizia classic Through the Desert, a top 100 game for me since I started making those lists, but which has gone out of print twice in the last decade or so. I own a copy of a prior printing but I’m excited that folks will be able to buy it later this year.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: boardgames, cooperative games, highly recommended, trick-taking games, two-player games

→ January 24, 2024
→ By keith

North Woods.

Daniel Mason’s North Woods is the story of a house. I mean, it’s the story of the people who live in it, and some who just pass through, but the only constant in this peculiar but beguiling book is the house, located on what becomes an apple orchard in western Massachusetts. The house becomes the site of a number of tragedies – there’s a lot of death in the book, some comic but others just sad – and some truly eccentric characters who remind us of the transience of life and the things we leave behind.

The house, described as lemon-yellow and assembled piecemeal over many years, first goes up in the 1760s and sees everyone from young lovers to Revolutionary soldiers to a woman kidnapped by Native Americans to an escaped slave and the slave-hunter trying to abduct her and more, although none leaves more of a mark than the Osgood family. Their patriarch discovers an apple there he calls the Wonder, becoming an evangelist of the strain and developing the giant orchard that envelops the property and that his spinster daughters will eventually make their livelihood – at least, until one of them finds a beau. Much of the action in the book is botanical, as apple seeds, acorns, beetles, and fungal spores also leave their mark on the house, its environs, and thus the people who inhabit it. Eventually, we enter the 20^th century, with a woman whose son believes he can hear the voices of the dead people who previously lived in the house – which leads to his diagnosis with schizophrenia – and the house’s decline into ruin.

Mason challenges the reader twice over, once with the unusual structure and once with his use of the supernatural in a subtle but central way. The book’s many sections vary in length and style, with interstitials that come in the form of letters, pamphlets, a real estate listing, poems, and more digressions from the prose format. Some work – the real estate listing is one of the funnier bits, and it’s just a single page – but there’s a sense of Mason trying harder than he needs to in a book that is in and of itself a creative marvel. The poems especially do not work, not because they’re bad poems – I am not in a position to judge their merits – but because they add nothing to the novel as a whole. They take up space without advancing story or character, and unless I’m missing some great Parnassian achievement here, I’d have preferred he omit them entirely.

The supernatural elements are harder to understand, but also more essential to the novel. Without spoiling what those elements are, they appear slowly, without much in the way of warning or foreshadowing, building as the novel progresses until they are woven thoroughly into the fabric of each story. By the time we reach the final character to visit the house, it’s easy to see where that chapter will end, because each successive tale has leaned a little more on the supernatural elements to complete its narrative. North Woods could exist, and excel, without the interstitial bits and style variations, but it could not exist without the spirits. (As an aside, I did not catch that the twelve chapters were supposed to represent the twelve months of the year, later reading that in the NPR review of the book. It’s another clever trick that, in hindsight, was also quite effective because of its subtlety.)

That last character refers to the world as either “a tale of loss” or “a tale of change,” and North Woods does not seem to take sides in this debate. The characters themselves experience loss, sometimes plural, often unexpected and unfathomable. The house and the land persist, but their denizens change, as do the ways in which the humans use the building and the trees. And all of the death begets new life, even, in its way, the eventual death of the house by fire, which we know can regenerate the land (e.g., certain morel mushrooms fruit well after forest fires). Death is not final in Mason’s novel, which is obviously a spiritual view that readers may or may not endorse, but he uses this as a device to connect the dozen stories and characters, as one death often sparks the series of events that lead to the next character or chapter in the house itself. It’s an unusual novel, and a slow one to start, but Mason’s lithe prose and gift for characterization ultimately wins out, even with some distractions in his literary flourishes.

Next up: Bryan Stephenson’s Just Mercy, which my daughter had to read for school last year. (He’s a Delaware native.)

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2023 novels, american literature, contemporary novels, highly recommended, historical novels, magical realism

→ January 23, 2024
→ By keith

Nautilus Island.

Nautilus Island is a simple family-friendly game that first appeared at Gen Con this past August, combining set collection with a tiny bit of press-your-luck that’s great for younger gamers but that I found too simple for my own tastes.

In Nautilus Island, players will try to collect sets of treasure cards from the board, which represents a shipwreck and has stacks of cards aligned in rows, with some stacks face-up and others face-down. On your turn, you’ll move your Castaway meeple to the other side of the board, next to any row except the one you just left. Once there, you may either take the top card from every stack in that row, or play a number of cards from your hand, all of one color, equal to the number of stacks in your row (one to three). If there’s an active bonus token available for that card color, you can claim it. You then have the choice to ‘close’ your set, which precludes you from playing any more cards of that color for the rest of the game (although you may take them), at which point you take the most valuable Porthole token left for the number of cards in that set. For example, if you have four blue cards in your set, and you close it before anyone else has closed a four-card set, you’ll get the Porthole token worth 8 points. Those tokens decline in value as more players claim them. There are six different colors of cards, five of which you can collect in sets plus the yellow treasure cards that are just worth straight victory points. Once players have exhausted the stacks in any row of the board, the game ends, and players add up the points from their bonus tokens, Porthole tokens, and any treasure cards to determine the winner.

There isn’t that much strategy in Nautilus Island other than the turn order aspect of where you place your meeples. The number of stacks varies by player count, but the board always has at least one stack alone in a row at the front of the boat, and at least one row of three stacks at the back. After a round, when all players have placed their meeples on one side of the boat, the new turn order is determined by who’s closest to the front of the boat – so if you moved to the one-stack row at the very front, you had a less powerful move (take or play just one card), but you go first in the next round, which might line you up to get cards you really wanted. Beyond that, however, you’re just collecting cards, and eventually have to decide how much to push your luck around closing sets, because you only score for sets you’ve closed and for which you’ve claimed a Porthole token – once all tokens for a set size are claimed, future sets of that size are worthless.

The game was co-designed by Théo Rivière and Johannes Goupy, who also co-designed last year’s Rauha and have contributed to the designs of Sea Salt & Paper, Orichalcum (still on my Shelf of Shame), and Draftosaurus, so they’ve got some pretty strong designs under their belts. This feels a bit like a throwaway design, though; my seven-year-old nephew loves it, and that’s worth something, but I’ve played this with adults and we all thought it was too light. Your best option on each turn is pretty obvious, and when to close a set isn’t that hard a decision if you’re old enough to figure out how many cards of each color might still be left in the stacks. You can play a complete game inside of 20 minutes with two or three players – I haven’t played with four but I can’t imagine it would run longer than about 25 with that player count. I’d recommend this if you have younger kids who want to join the big people at the game table but are between games strictly for kids and those for older or more experienced players, but that’s a narrow window.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: boardgames, family games

→ January 22, 2024
→ By keith

Babel.

R.F. Kuang won the most recent Nebula Award for Best Novel with her first novel for adults, Babel, a long and intense fantasy story that upends many of the conventions of the ‘youth goes to magic school’ subgenre while also attacking serious questions of colonialism and privilege. It’s dark and riveting, and perhaps its best feature is how unsentimental it is about its subject and characters.

The book’s full title is the unwieldy Babel: Or the Necessity of Violence: An Arcane History of the Oxford Translators’ Revolution, which I think makes the book sound boring when it’s actually a thriller for the majority of its 500-odd pages. Set in the 1830s, it follows a Chinese orphan who is adopted by a strange English academic and brought to Oxford to study at its translation school, which is the most powerful institution in the country and perhaps the world. In this alternate history, translators can create powerful objects from silver by taking advantage of the meaning gaps between words in different languages that might have the same denotations but that have cultural or other contextual differences not captured by a word-four-word translation. These silver bars power much of the world at the time, but Oxford is their only producer, making England the world’s most powerful nation and allowing them to dictate the terms of trade with their partners … and to leave much of the non-European world in a state of underdevelopment because they refuse to share the technology. The orphan, who takes the English name Robin Swift, finds himself torn between the comfortable world of his academic setting and his own values, including his ties to China, which drive him to fight the ivory tower and try to bring silver-making to the broader world.

Kuang begins her novel with a familiar trope – the orphan is plucked from poverty by a mysterious (white) person who brings them to a school that reveals hitherto unknown talents and opens up a world of power and possibility to them. Robin is fluent in Mandarin and becomes so in English, while his professor-benefactor, who takes him in as a ward until he’s old enough for Oxford’s Linguistics Department, drills him in other languages to better prepare him for academe. Once there, Robin becomes fast friends with a few classmates and acclimates quickly to a life of privilege and sudden respect, as the linguistics tower is the jewel in the Oxonian crown, and those ticketed for its top floors – where the silver-making is done – are the Big Linguists On Campus. (I’m not making that other joke, sorry.) The plot begins to diverge from the archetype shortly after Robin matriculates, as an outsider attempts to recruit him to a shadowy, decentralized activist group that wants to pilfer silver bars from Oxford to share them with the developing world. Robin doesn’t choose his fate immediately, although he ultimately chooses – or is forced to – side with the rebels, opening up the second portion of the book, where Kuang continues to explore the same themes of exploitation and social justice, but shifts the style from Magic School Wunderkind to a spy thriller with tons of action and many, many surprising twists.

As a straight read, Babel is a smart and clever thrill ride up to the very last page. The gimmick around languages, using what gets lost in translation as the proxy for magic, is incredibly clever and a credit to Kuang’s intellect and her own linguistic prowess; it feels like the sort of idea you’d have if you’re fluent in several languages without much or any relationship and have tried to translate something but found the words lacking. That alone won’t power a book, but Robin is a superb protagonist, principled but cautious, anxious yet willing to make bold decisions, flawed but ultimately heroic in his own way. His friends are fun side characters, perhaps not as fleshed out as they could be other than the Indian-born Ramy, but this book is already long and giving any of them more time would probably just pad the length.

This particular subgenre has many smart and entertaining books in it, but I can’t think of an other example that is this serious at its core. At heart, Babel is an angry book, based loosely on the leadup to the Opium Wars and the English crown’s exploitation of both its colonial empire and of China after it subjugated the latter by use of superior weaponry. It’s also a metaphor for the two centuries since then, where the West has seen enormous economic advancement, leading to longer life expectancies and better health outcomes, that it has not shared with the developing world. Some Asian countries – the so-called “Tigers” – have caught up, but did so by selling to the west and undercutting labor costs, while a few western financiers played God with their currencies and nearly killed their economies in the process. The same imperialist-capitalist philosophy that leads fictional England to keep silver-making to itself drives nations and drug manufacturers to charge market rents for treatments or cures for diseases that are devastating sub-Saharan Africa. Over 90% of the children with HIV and over 90% of the pregnant women with HIV in the world live in that region. People with HIV make up over 2% of the population of Africa as a whole. The virus is driving a co-epidemic with tuberculosis. The developed world has not stepped up with sufficient funds to stem the spread of the virus and reduce the death rate through antiretroviral drugs. Even ignoring the potential economic benefits of helping a continent with over a billion people fight an epidemic, isn’t there a moral imperative to help people not die of a disease that is 1) mostly preventable and 2) mostly treatable, just because they don’t have the money or even a way to get it?

Robin’s answer, ultimately, is yes. How he gets there, and what he and his friends end up doing to try to topple the tower, literally and figuratively, makes Babel one of the smartest and most thought-provoking page-turners I’ve read in years. I can even see why readers who’d read this first might have been disappointed by her next novel, Yellowface, which feels insubstantial by comparison. Its ideas are also important, but Babel creates a universe to call out universal ills, and forces you to reckon with its themes by plunging you into a story you won’t want to put down.

Next up: Currently reading Daniel Mason’s North Woods.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2022 novels, american literature, highly recommended, nebula award, science fiction, speculative fiction

→ January 19, 2024
→ By keith

The Boy and the Heron.

I’m an avowed Hayao Miyazaki fan, having seen every film he’s directed or written other than his first, 1978’s The Castle of Cagliostro, some of them multiple times. My Neighbor Totoro is a favorite of all of my kids, and my daughter has a modest collection of Totoro-themed trinkets, while I’d rank Spirited Away among the best animated films I’ve ever seen for the complexity of its story and the way it blends fantasy and a very specific form of psychological horror. After 2013’s The Wind Rises, Miyazaki announced his retirement (not for the first time), and it seemed right as that was one of his weaker films. Maybe he’d just lost his fastball in his 70s.

He unretired at some point in the interim, spending seven years making his latest and likely final film, The Boy and the Heron. It certainly feels like a swan song, with a story that’s inspired by his own childhood and is told through his typical lens of fantasy, nature, and food, and ending on a beautiful note that seems to say goodbye to all that. It’s very Miyazaki, enough to satisfy his longtime fans, but takes a darker tone for much of the story than anything else he’s done in the last twenty years.

The Boy is Mahito Maki, a young child in Japan in World War II whose mother dies when the Tokyo hospital where she works burns down. Soon after, Mahito’s father marries his late wife’s sister, Notsuko, and they move to her estate in the countryside to escape the bombing. While there, Mahito encounters a talking, taunting heron, and wanders into an abandoned tower on the property with a haunted history. You can probably guess that we’re going in that tower, with the heron, and very strange things are going to happen there, which would be correct, as Notsuko – by then very pregnant – wanders into the forest as if in a trance, and Mahito goes on a quest to find her that takes him into another world, one populated by angry parakeets, starving pelicans, little white sprites called wara-wara, and the solution to more than just the mystery of Notsuko’s disappearance.

The Boy and the Heron is chock full of Miyazaki staples, starting with the unbelievable landscapes, lush with greens and vibrant floral tones – a reminder that hand-drawn animation is still capable of blowing us away by evoking the same sort of sensations we get from the ultra-realism of modern CGI. There are adorable tiny creatures made for merchandising in the adorable wara-wara, just like the soot sprites of Totoro. There’s food, a lot of it, which somehow looks delicious even when it doesn’t look very real. And there’s magic of the Miyazaki variety, like fire witches and talking herons (well, just one) and a hallway of doors that lead to different worlds. It’s not fan service, but it’s comfort food for fans all the same.

Where The Boy and the Heron succeeds is the way it layers a metaphorical version of Miyazaki’s life and career on top of the actual story of Mahito. Mothers in hospitals and cities under attack are common motifs in his films, both drawn from his own childhood, as is the distant relationship Mahito has with his own father – a pattern Miyazaki has said he’s repeated with his older son Goro, who has directed several Studio Ghibli films himself. A large portion of the plot concerns the ideas of world-building and the responsibilities of a creator (or, by extension, an artist), and when the movie ends by closing a literal door on one of those worlds, it feels like Miyazaki himself saying he’s done as a filmmaker. Mahito’s entire story arc from the moment he meets the heron – voiced in the English dub by an unrecognizable Robert Pattinson – seems to serve as a loosely figurative interpretation of Miyazaki’s career in animation, from his first encounters with the form through the fifteen years he worked before writing and directing his first feature to his reluctant decision(s) to walk away.

There’s a long period where Mahito is in the other world where the story loses some momentum, between his encounter with the wara-wara and his entry into the tower, and the film probably could have benefited from some editing here – not that anyone was likely to tell Miyazaki what to do with his own film. Some of this comes together in the ending, including the meaning of the tower, although Miyazaki also leaves some things unexplained, as is his wont; the conclusion turns out to be incredibly moving, especially through that lens of him using the hall of doors and Mahito’s choice to pass through one as his own way of saying to audiences that he’s done. It’s in the upper half of his films, and if it doesn’t quite reach the heights of Spirited Away or Princess Mononoke or the sheer joy of Totoro or Kiki’s Delivery Service, it’s a wonderful and moving way to end a Hall of Fame career.

The Boy and the Heron just won the Golden Globe for Best Animated Feature, which has gone to the eventual winner of the Oscar in that category in 75% of the years since the Globes introduced their category, including the last three winners. The Oscar race feels like it’s coming down to this film, a hand-drawn marvel that’s the Academy’s final chance to honor a legend in the field, against Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, one of the most innovative animated films ever and the sequel to a past winner. I think the Spider-Verse movie is the more worthy winner, but The Boy and the Heron is more likely to win, and my sentimental side hopes it does. Miyazaki has only won this honor once, for Spirited Away, and only been nominated two other times, as the Academy passed over Ponyo and two films he wrote but didn’t direct, Arrietty and From Up on Poppy Hill. Giving The Boy and the Heron this award would be the sort of lifetime achievement honor the Academy seems to love, and the film itself would be the easy choice in most years anyway.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2023 movies, 2024 best animated feature nominees, animation, highly recommended, japanese films, miyazaki, movies

→ January 15, 2024
→ By keith

May December.

If you’re at least in your mid-30s, you probably remember the tabloid saga of Mary Kay LeTourneau, a sixth-grade teacher who committed statutory rape by sleeping with one of her students, 12-year-old Vili Fualaau. She served about six years in prison, but had two children by Fualaau and they eventually married, staying together for fourteen years until they separated, shortly after which she died of cancer. It was played for laughs, but it was a very real tragedy, with Fualaau a victim of her grooming and abuse, while she herself had a history of private tragedies from alleged abuse in her first marriage to having her three-year-old brother drown in a pool while she was playing in it at the other end.

The new film May December, streaming exclusively on Netflix,takes this story and very, very thinly veils it with some new names and modest details, envisioning the couple as still married twenty-plus years later with one kid in college and two more about to graduate from high school. Within this movie, there’s a film in production about their story at the time of the actual abuse, and an actress, Elizabeth (Natalie Portman), arrives at the family’s house to spend time with them as she prepares for her role as the younger Gracie (Julianne Moore). Elizabeth at least thinks of herself as an extremely serious actress and embeds herself in the family’s daily routines, following Gracie to things like a flower arranging class and helping her with her home baking business, but also clearly flirting with Gracie’s husband, Joe (Charles Melton), who is now just about the same age as Elizabeth. She also meets Gracie’s ex-husband and one of her children from that marriage as well as some neighbors who offer their own interpretations of events that may be unreliable but at least tend to upset the standard narrative about the couple, both the original crimes and their marriage today.

The tone and atmosphere of May December seem like those of a serious drama, but the script is far more that of a dark comedy. Elizabeth and Gracie are utterly ridiculous people, ridiculous in different ways but similar enough that they clash many times throughout their partnership here. Elizabeth’s preparation for the role borders on parody, such as when she visits the pet store where Gracie and Joe worked when she groomed him – and asks to see the stockroom where they first had sex (or, where Gracie first raped Joe). She seems reasonable at first, just affected, but as the film goes on she comes across as either unhinged or perhaps just not that smart, as if she’s going through the steps she believes a good actor takes but doesn’t understand how to translate the checklist into practice.

Gracie, meanwhile, appears to be arrested development in senior citizen form, crying and throwing tantrums like a small child, with a slight lisp or impediment that comes and goes depending on what impression she’s trying to make. She has, or at least has had, the power in her relationship, but as they get older and the kids that bound them together are about to leave them with an empty nest, she might see the odds of Joe leaving her as higher than ever – and perhaps she sees this new film as a way to prevent Joe from leaving their history behind him.

It all leaves Joe, oddly enough, as the film’s most nuanced and interesting character, giving Melton, previously best known for the C.W. drama Riverdale, a great chance to prove himself as a serious actor. Joe insists that he wasn’t a victim, and that the way the world sees him isn’t at all how he sees himself. He’s not happy in the marriage, or at least not happy enough, but it’s less overt than it might be – he hasn’t woken up one day to realize he was groomed, or suddenly decided he doesn’t want to be married to an old lady when he’s still in his 30s. He’s also perplexed by Elizabeth, who comes from another world that he never got to experience, which leaves him vulnerable to her charms.

Joe also raises monarch caterpillars as a hobby, and Haynes is not the least bit shy about beating the viewer over the head with the metaphor here. I’m all for metaphor and symqbolism in films, but the script here lays it on so thick that you have no room for thought or interpretation, and it ends up a distraction from the tripartite character study that’s at the heart of the film. The script’s ambiguous conclusion forces Elizabeth to rethink much of what she believes she saw and learned while visiting Gracie and Joe, and opens the whole film up to more interpretations, enough so that the caterpillar stuff just wasn’t necessary.

All three leads are excellent, unsurprising for the two who’ve already won Oscars themselves, although the current odds seem to show Moore and Melton on the bubbles for the two supporting categories. It’s possible that May December will only get a nod for original screenplay, which might be merited as it’s looking like the 2023 movie crop ended up a very strong one, but this feels like a film that should earn more acclaim for its actors, without all three of whom it just can’t work. After Haynes’ distracting Velvet Underground documentary, which was sunk by the split-screen gimmick and didn’t give enough story about the band’s incredible influence, it’s good to see him return with a film this complex and challenging.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2023 movies, 2024 best original screenplay nominees, movies

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