My first mock draft of 2024 is now up for subscribers to The Athletic.

Keith Law: So you say I got a funny face. Klawchat.

Mike R: I loved the “Thick as a Brick” reference at the top of the last chat.
Keith Law: I was a big Jethro Tull fan when I was in college, then kind of lost interest for a while. They used “Teacher” in Baby Reindeer (deserves an Emmy for best use of a song in a limited series) and it got me back into them in the last few weeks.

J: Cleveland clearly likes-and is good at-acquiring and developing hit tool driven 2B. Assuming they have Condon and Bazzana graded equally do you think they should double down on that profile or take the player who’s profile would be unique in the org
Keith Law: They should take whoever they think is the best player. Period. You don’t pick first very often and you don’t want to screw it up like the Phils did in 2016.

James: With respect to James Wood, outside of the improved numbers, have you seen or gotten reports that he’s actually taken a step forward in some of the areas of concern that you had for him coming into this season?
Keith Law: His slider recognition seems to be way, way improved from last year. I’m a little skeptical of any player’s improved plate discipline with the ABS in play in AAA, but he seems to have made a real change.

Rick: I know this is about 2024, but as an Astros fan with a likely high pick, how strong is the 2025 draft?
Keith Law: I have no idea. I avoid worrying about next year’s draft until the current one is over, especially since such early impressions are often way off.

Neal: I’m a White Sox fan trying to warm up to the idea of taking a hitter without positional value (to be fair-our guys don’t really hit at the less valuable positions either). I saw Jac as 3 doubles this year. Is this a no wheels kind of slugger? I know he’s hit a lot of home runs, but Condon has 18 doubles by comparison. Thanks!
Keith Law: It’s a very all-or-nothing approach for Cags and I think that’s why some teams are just not on him in the top ten. He swings a lot, he chases a lot, and he’s trying to pull everything. That’s how you end up with all singles and homers but very very few 2b/3b – and you’re correct to worry about what it means going forward.

Punk in Drublic: any updates to the profiles of Owen Cassie, Thayron Liranzo, or Cam Collier based on their 2024 season?
Keith Law: I think all 3 have been pretty much as expected so far, other than Liranzo hitting a little worse on BIP. Was hoping Caissie would cut down on the K’s with the benefit of ABS in AAA.

Drew: It’s not Memorial Day and there are already two public videos of the Nationals coaching staff and CJ Abrams disagreeing about his approach at the plate. 1) how much should an MLB team be telling a player how to swing (feels very Stanford’y) and 2) how concerning should it be that there is such a visible disagreement between the staff and best player?
Keith Law: I hate that stuff becoming public regardless of the player and org – that belongs behind closed doors, IMO. It doesn’t reflect well on the coaching staff, including the manager. That said, it is absolutely the coaching staff’s job to work with players on their swings and their approaches.

Punk in Drublic: It feels like based on his stat line Jonah Tong has shown some marked improvement this season (specifically with his reduction of walks).  Have you heard anything about him imparting a significant way or is it more SSS?
Keith Law: Yep, he’s legit. Would probably be a top 100 guy at this point. Fastball is easily plus in every way.

Dan: With Mitchell Parker and Jake Irving doing well (111 and 128 ERA+, respectively), Andry Lara blowing up seemingly out of nowhere–are the Nationals actually developing pitchers?
Keith Law: No – Parker’s start to his career looks like a raging fluke. He’s giving up more hard contact than the opponents’ avg would imply and is lucky he hasn’t allowed more homers. Both he and Irvin have large platoon splits already, and I would expect that to get exposed as teams stack lineups with LHB.

Sam: How much success does a prospect need to have with unconventional mechanics/skill set before it stops being a concern?
Keith Law: Kind of depends on the mechanics/skill in question. For pitchers with weird deliveries – and this year’s draft has a LOT – I think you focus more on the stuff, and how it plays, and make small adjustments based on your concerns about the delivery, rather than just saying “NOPE” to a guy like Yesavage, who I don’t think has ever had an arm issue and who is dominating with the FB/split. I think it’s more fair to be skeptical of, say, a hitter with a really unusual swing (Chase Delauter comes to mind, although the poor guy is hurt again), because that seems to be way more of an impediment in the majors than an unusual delivery.
Keith Law: Sorry for the non-answer.

Paul in SF: Thanks for all the hard work!  This draft doesn’t have the top 5 of last year, so comparatively, how many “TOP 25” guys do you see overall?  I would assume Condon and Bazzana, but anyone else?  Just curious as to the difference at top.
Keith Law: That’s probably it. And I’m not totally sure that either of those guys cracks last year’s top 5.

M: Christopher Morel’s plate discipline has really improved – walk rate way up, K rate real down, some bad BABIP luck this year. OTOH his defense has been horrendous and he is on pace for 1 WAR again. Is this a player worth investing in?
Keith Law: I think he’s a DH. I did notice the plate discipline stuff you mentioned … he’s also hitting the ball on the ground a decent amount more often than last year, and I wonder if that’s all connected, that he’s trading some whiff for some less favorable contact. If Shaw, who’s also had some awful BABIP luck, performs well enough to get to the majors this summer, he should get the 3B job.

Matt: I noticed Skenes pitched 4 innings but had like 20 pitches that were over 100 mph. Wouldn’t it be better if he threw 96 but was able to go 6 or 7 innings? Or is there not a big difference in 4-5 mph with regards to stress on the arm? It just seems ill advised to throw as hard as you can all the time.
Keith Law: In theory, yes, I agree with you, but the unknowable variable here is how much it taxes Skenes’ arm to throw 100 versus 96. I’m hoping that the splinker helps take some of the pressure off him to throw 100, because the four-seamer doesn’t play as well at the lower end of his range – it doesn’t have much ride or run, while the splinker has a lot more vertical break and I think hitters are going to have a really hard time hitting it anywhere but into the ground.

Mj: Is Brett Bateman a prospect? No power at all, but gets on base at a really high clip and is fast. Or am I just dreaming of lead off men of my youth?
Keith Law: I’d really have to see him do something in AA given his age/experience before buying into it.

SCG: Keith, first of all, thanks for all your work put and also for the chats! Do you see Vance Honeycutt going in the first two rounds? Is it possible he moves into the first round?
Keith Law: It is possible he goes in the first, but on merit he’s a second rounder, and I know teams are well aware of his holes at the plate. He’s at a 30% K rate in the ACC this year, and everyone remembers Jud Fabian, who is punching out too often while repeating AA this year.
Keith Law: It’s a similar profile: ++ power, ++ CF defense, too much whiff.

Braydon: In your mock you said the class overall is one of the weakest you can remember. How does the Top 11 specifically compare to the top of recent drafts?
Keith Law: It’s weaker. A strong top of the draft will nearly always color our collective opinion of a draft.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Your latest mock has the Orioles pointing to several position players, but with Burnes heading out of town, DL Hall gone, and control/command question marks on Povich and McDermott, which pitchers would you have them draft?
Keith Law: I’d have them take the best player available, and in my mock I project what I believe teams will do, not what they should do. I don’t think the O’s have taken a pitcher in the first round under Elias, and I know from mutual acquaintances that the Appel-Aiken-Whitley picks have soured him on doing so again. (Who could blame him?)

Z Chow: Big fan of your work, Keith. Do you collect any baseball cards or memorabilia at all?
Keith Law: I do not. I’m not much for collecting; I do have a large board game collection, but I’d only say about 8-10 of them are ones I have “collected” versus games I like and think I might play again. I have a first edition of Egizia, for example, that is worth a decent amount, and the second edition changed some of the rules and the board in a way I don’t care for, so I’m hanging on to this.

Chris: What kind of trade package would you be comfortable sending over for Luis Robert? Vs what would you be asking for if you were the white Sox?
Keith Law: They should ask for the Juan Soto deal (the first one, with Wood and Gore and Abrams). He’s got three years left after this one, including two club options, and that is worth a TON – he’s under control but you have the choice to walk away if something goes wrong.

William C: What can the Athletics reasonably expect in return for Mason Miller?  Follow up, what would you give up for him? I figure the answers differ given your thoughts on closers.
Keith Law: If I’m trading for Miller, I’m valuing him as if he had two years of control left, because his injury history says expecting anything beyond that is pure fantasy. Even that might be optimistic but if you think he’s only good for another half-season you’re just not trading for him.

Heather: Do you ever watch college baseball on television, or is that just a completely useless way of scouting?
Keith Law: I watch it but it’s not great for scouting – the angles are all wrong – more for just getting the feel for how the players are playing rather than breaking down mechanics. Can certainly see how a player is approaching an at bat, for example.

Matt: What’s with all these athletes being MAGA Chuds? Schilling, Butker, LT, Mariano Rivera, etc. It’s amazing, really.
Keith Law: Those guys don’t all have equivalent beliefs, mind you. But I think they all have similar religious backgrounds, and for some reason, the evangelical movement has moved very, very far to the right – even though I think that’s inconsistent with the secular aspects of Christ’s philosophy (omitting questions of his divinity).

Jeremy: Thru 119 PA, Rowdy Tellez is batting .178/.252/.234 (.486) with a 42 OPS+,42WRC+ after 351 PA batting .215/.291/.376 (.667) with a 81OPS+, 78WRC+ in 2023. How long will the Pirates take to finally start playing him less, and why hasn’t it happened yet?
Keith Law: I don’t know, and I don’t know.
Keith Law: Tellez has over 2000 MLB PA at this point and he’s almost dead replacement level. You have to have someone better than him in AAA or you’ve failed.

Santaspirt: I either miss your chats and remember the question I had for you, or I show up to your chats and forget what I wanted to ask you. There is no in between. Anyway, great mock. I only have the Athletic because of your writing.
Keith Law: Thank you! Maybe you’ll remember before 2 pm.

Rafael G.: What is Coby Mayo’s Ceiling?  He is hitting the cover off the ball, but does he have a chance for passable defense at third?
Keith Law: If you’re betting on an ultimate position, I’d say RF > 1B > 3B. But I don’t think it’s impossible he stays at third, in a vacuum, assuming he didn’t die from the lack of oxygen. They just have a lot of infielders who are better.

Danny: The Yankees have pushed recent draft picks to play premium positions that the general consensus did not agree (Wells at C, Sweeney staying at SS and Jones in CF). Do you think they could do the same with Jordan, Waldschmidt or Moore?
Keith Law: Yes. Even when I don’t agree that the player can stay there, I think it’s a smart developmental approach. What do you lose by playing a guy at the toughest (and most valuable) possible position he could play? Very little, I think. And maybe you prove the consensus wrong.

Josh: Assume if the Guardians go well below slot at 1:1 it’s just a money saving move and a mistake? Those vanity senate runs by Matt Dolan can’t be cheap.
Keith Law: It would be to go after some over-slot guys with later picks. I’ve heard several times that this is their plan. I just don’t think this draft offers the same quantity of over-slot candidates that last year did, or even 2021 when the Pirates took Henry Davis well under slot and then got two of their top prospects today in Chandler and Solometo.

Joe: Possible we are seeing a delayed breakout for Clarke Schmidt or Luis Gil?
Keith Law: I had Schmidt on my breakout list this year so of course I’m hoping that’s true. Gil has always had a great arm, but he’s leading the AL in walks, and it’s especially acute vs LHB.

Dr. Bob: People complain about the Dodgers pricing other teams out of competition. I understand that contracts like they gave to Ohtani and Yamamoto might not fit their budgets, but they could spend much less money to build scouting and player development systems like L.A. has. That’s how they get players like Andy Pages and Teoscar Hernandez.
Keith Law: That so few teams have maintained scouting, development, and R&D staffs like the Dodgers is baffling to me. We can all joke about Dodgers Devil Magic, but jesus it’s right there in front of you. They employ more people in those departments, and they have those departments working together as well as any organization in baseball. It’s not a secret. If you made me a GM or President of BB Ops, I would copy them. Like, print the org chart, change the names, rock and roll.

addoeh: Ryan Sloan a second rounder or compensatory round candidate?
Keith Law: I’d say between picks 20 and 40. Over-slot if he gets past 30. I was supposed to see him last night but the rain was coming so I came home and saw Bryce Meccage instead.

Geoff: What is going on with Bazzana all of a sudden becoming the top guy in most recent mock drafts? Is it solely because of that report from ESPN? Or is there something that is going around that everyone knows about?
Keith Law: What report from ESPN? Bazzana’s been a 1-1 candidate all spring, and he’s had a tremendous year. He and Condon are the only two realistic candidates for 1-1 in my view, although I mentioned a third name in the mock today because I heard Cleveland might consider it.
Keith Law: BTW, I was able to see a live feed of Konnor Griffin’s game last night. It was tied, and with no one on and two outs, Griffin’s coach intentionally walked a batter – the potential winning run – only to see him come around and score. It has to be one of the worst unforced managerial errors I’ve ever seen.

Gabriel: Keith you were always a fan of Mathew Lugo. Is his current production a sign of him finally meeting expectations or is it just a player that is now too old for AA
Keith Law: He’s repeating the level and still striking out too often, but I do think the power surge is real. He might still find a way to the majors.

Justin Y: Kevin Alcantara just can’t seem to get over the hump it feels like. Is he just going to be a late bloomer?
Keith Law: He’s 21 in AA. He’s younger than most of the college guys about to get drafted.

Troy: Would sending Chourio down be a good idea or is there just not much for him to learn in AAA?
Keith Law: Don’t think he has anything to learn in AAA. The gap between that level and the majors is enormous. Teams have to adjust and be willing to let hitters come up and struggle for a few months as they adjust to better pitching. It was true with Holliday and with Henry Davis and Kjerstad too.

Guest: Hey Keith, thanks for the chat. A’s fan here who thought we should have drafted Shaw but not too upset w/Wilson. How would you rank Shaw last year vs other 2B Bazzana & Wetherholt this year? Thanks
Keith Law: Shaw’s comparable to those guys as hitters, probably more power than Wetherholt, less pure hit tool. Can’t comment on Wetherholt’s defense at this point since he’s barely played the field (and barely moved when he has).

Matt: When Harper was drafted, how did teams know he was a generational talent? What set him aside that everyone knew the Nationals were taking him as opposed to a normal draft where you hope the pick pans out?
Keith Law: We’d seen him against older competition since he was 15. He was as obvious a 1-1 pick as we might ever see.

Dugan: What is going on with Jack Leiter? He seemed to dominate AAA, but has been totally lost in all of his MLB games. Anything in particular going on?
Keith Law: Yeah, his 4-seamer has guys racing to the bat rack. He might as well walk to the plate and put it on a tee. Hitters will tell you if a pitch isn’t any good, and they’re telling us, loudly. At this point I’d send him down and see if he can throw a decent two-seamer because the four-seamer is way too straight and doesn’t have other attributes to make up for it.

David: Do you see any chance Condon or Bazzana fall to Rox at 3? and would they still take one of Smith/Burns if one of those guys were still on the board?
Keith Law: I did outline a scenario like that in the mock. I think they’d take the hitter if one fell.

Justin: You previously had some not so favorable reports about Jacob Gonzalez based on what you saw last year. There’s some talk of changes to his swing along with some pretty solid stats to start the year. Have you noticed a change in his swing and are you feeling better about him going forward?
Keith Law: No. He’s too advanced for high-A anyway and we’re not seeing a big change in outcomes.

Tom: Have you seen Tegan Kuhns pitch and what do you think of him?
Keith Law: Tried to see early, got rained out (2″ in two days), and since then I’ve heard the velocity has tapered. Think he’s slid out of any first-round consideration; there’s already a bias against 6′ HS RHP, and if he’s not showing elite stuff maybe he ends up at NC State and tries to be a top 10 pick in three years.

Matt: Does Max Clark have a chance at AA this year?
Keith Law: I think he’ll finish there.

Adam D.: With the draft class being as weak as it is, who would you say is the “best of the rest” after the top-tier guys? One pitcher and one hitter to look out for?
Keith Law: I’ll do an updated ranking next week – I was going to do one this week and the mock next Wednesday, but decided to switch them – but the hitter would be Tibbs and the pitcher would be Cijntjie.

Luis: Hi Keith! Great content as usual! Any new board games worth checking out to play with  my 9 & 12 year old kids ?
Keith Law: Trio, Mycelia, Wandering Towers are the best fits for that age group I’ve played recently. I need to play Pixies again but liked it on first play.

cross: when you say you have teams on college bats, do you look at their draft history and traits that they like when you link them to a bat in said draft or do you go off of intel? (asking for the marlins / blue jays)
Keith Law: Both, but draft history only matters if the decision-makers are the same.

Jackie: Do you watch “The Amazing Race”?  The contestants were in the Dominican Republic last week, and Bartolo Colon made an appearance.  He looked good — I’d say about 30-40 pound less than his playing weight.  Truth be told, I had no idea he had finally retired.  If you had told me he was starting for the Mets last week, I would’ve believed you.
Keith Law: I was hoping he’d stage one more comeback because he was the last MLB player older than I am. (I do not watch the show.)

Matt: What’s really odd is these teams skimping on R&D will also go out and overspend on free agents. Like, you have the money. Put it to good use.
Keith Law: Right, I’d rather have all of that staff than an $8 million free agent who’s unlikely to deliver the same ROI.

Guest: What are your thoughts on Christian Scott? Looking like a legit #3 SP?
Keith Law: I could see that. I said he had above-average starter potential when I wrote him up this winter. But he’s never even thrown 90 innings in a season, so I have a hard time just saying he’s a legit #3 when we assume that pitcher is at least throwing 150-160 innings.

Dugan: Is Matt Wilkinson just overpowering lower levels, or are the skills there real and ready to play at higher levels?
Keith Law: I know in juco he was in the upper 80s and succeeded by changing speeds to get inexperienced hitters out. I don’t have any info from this year, sorry, but I’d be shocked if he was suddenly throwing gas.

Mike: How far out has Jenkins injury pushed him? Does this delay his progress by a year, or it doesn’t matter all that much? thanks,
Keith Law: Walker? Don’t think this matters in the long run.

Richard: Is Luke Holman a back end starter or does he have mid-rotation upside?
Keith Law: Delivery is really iffy for durability. I know he had a longer arm stroke before going to LSU … maybe someone drafts him and cleans it up enough so that he can be more of a back-end starter.

Justin: If you’re the White Sox, do you trade Robert, Fedde, Crochet, etc?
Keith Law: Yes. Anything that’s not nailed down.

Greg: Have you heard anything about an Owen Murphy breakout? I’m just scouting the stat line but it looks good so far.
Keith Law: No breakout, just a good command/control guy dominating hitters who don’t have the plate discipline to compete. He doesn’t have a swing-and-miss pitch in the arsenal.

J: I struggle with players like James Tibbs. I feel like if there was more confidence that he would be a true middle of the order bat, he would be grouped with Kurtz/Cags. But since he seems to be a tier below them, I’m wondering how valuable is a ~6 hole hitter with negative defensive value?
Keith Law: Is he a 6-hole hitter or maybe a 2-hole guy? I think that’s the question teams are facing. I know models love him.

Marc: Keith, the pirates have chosen to go with a 6-man rotation with the unstated but clearly underlying goal of limiting innings for their young pitchers. Is there any evidence that extending time between starts is good for arm health? Also wondered what you thought of Skenes’s first start in the big leagues. Thanks!
Keith Law: My understanding is that more rest is better than less, but I don’t know of evidence of whether six-man rotations are better than five-man. I’d rather see this, and then guys pitching a little deeper into games, than the alternative of a five-man rotation and Jared Jones coming out at 59 pitches.

Mike: Was hoping you could opine on WVU as a baseball program. Back 10+ years ago when i was there, they barely even had a program. Now with manoah, means, whetherholt and i think a few others, theyre generating a lotta talent. Any idea why?
Keith Law: Being in the Big 12 with a tremendous facility has to help from recruiting to development.

Nick: How does Condon compare to Kris Bryant as a prospect coming out of college?
Keith Law: I think Condon’s a better athlete – little twitchier, might stay up the middle – but Bryant had more raw power. HRs are up all over college baseball this year. Every time I go to a college game and see how the ball flies, I wonder, who’s been screwing with this thing?
Keith Law: That’s all for this week … plans may shift slightly with my upcoming travel but I hope to have a top 100 draft ranking up on Wednesday of next week. Thanks for all of your questions and for reading, as always. Stay safe.

Keith Law: Really don’t mind if you sit this one out. Klawchat.

Brett: Is Ralphy Velasquez a guy, or could be a GUY?
Keith Law: The bat looks like a GUY, but he’s only playing first base now and that raises the bar significantly (versus catching).

Matt: How excited should I be about Wichrowski?
Keith Law: Great arm, up to 96-97 with a really sharp slider (maybe a sweeper, I hate that term), no pitch for lefties – it’s FB, SL, cutter, and the cutter isn’t great – so right now it’s a relief profile. Arm action seems fine to start; maybe he can learn a splitter or split-change to give him that extra pitch he needs for LHB?

Josh: Is Matt Wilkinson an actual prospect or just old for his level?
Keith Law: He’s definitely old for his level, and his season line is a bit skewed by one incredible start (6 IP, 15 K!). I’d rather say we just don’t know, and that he should at least be in high A now, given the results. LHB are striking out half the time they face him, which is a pretty good starting point.

Zirinsky: Hey there Keith. Thanks for doing these chats. I’m curious: how would you handle what’s going on on various college campuses (protests, etc.) if you were an administrator at one of them where there was a lot of activity?
Keith Law: I can tell you what I wouldn’t do: send in large groups of heavily armed police and hope I didn’t just create another Kent State. It’d be nice if they learned a single lesson from past protests. There’s also a great piece in the Atlantic today about how some of these same schools have touted their ‘activist’ credentials and talked up freedom of expression … and now they’re zip-tying professors and expelling students.

Dallas: Hi Keith- hope you are having a great day and I throughly enjoy your work. My question is regarding the development of the Pirates position players. We are in year 5 of the Cherington Era and several bats (Suwinski, Davis, Cruz, etc) are struggling mightily. Is there hope these guys can turn it around, or is the outlook as bleak as it appears?
Keith Law: Suwinski was never a ‘guy’ like the other two as a prospect; last year looked like a pretty big fluke. The others were very highly-rated prospects, for totally different reasons, but I think it’s fair to ask the question – and note that some of this goes back to the previous regime, as well. They really haven’t developed a hitter into an offensive star since Reynolds, who they got in a trade when he was 22 and already reasonably developed. Davis fits their mold of guys who can hit the ball hard, but don’t do it often enough. Cruz is unique among their guys in that it’s about approach and his unusual size, rather than too much weak contact.

Justin: Is there anything in Cade Povich’s arsenal thats actually improved from last year, or is this just a small sample stellar chunk where his true talent hasn’t really improved?
Keith Law: He’s working a lot more with a cutter now, and that probably explains a lot of the improvement, along with some good luck on BIP.

Justin: Over or under 60 wins for Oakland?
Keith Law: Over.

SamG: Cam Collier appears to have a nice start to the season. Obviously small sample size. Do you expect he plays the entire season in Dayton, or do you expect a promotion to AA if he continues to play well?
Keith Law: He’s 19; I hope they leave him in Dayton all year, or close to it. He’s performing very well overall, but obviously there’s some aggressiveness there early in counts that pitchers will exploit at some point.

J: Was Theo Gillen close to making your Draft top 50?
Keith Law: No, but he should have been, and he’ll be on the update in the top 30 or so.

Dana: Austin Wells isn’t terrible behind the plate! Not a Gold Glover, but somewhere between below average and average. Are you willing to issue a formal mea culpa on that one?
Keith Law: He is way worse than you are saying. Already a ton of balls getting past him. Also hard eye roll at “formal mea culpa.” The fuck does that even mean?

Matt K: Thank you for chatting, Keith. As a Brewer fan, very excited for the kids they already have up in the majors, and the ones to come. Do you think Sal Frelick will be able to start elevating more to get his ISO into a more helpful area – sorta what Tyler Black has seemed to?
Keith Law: Don’t think Frelick’s ever going to be a high ISO guy – could be a high average, high doubles type.

Matt: Should Drew Thorpe get called up to the majors soon, or is keeping him as far away as possible from Chicago best for his development (and general wellbeing)?
Woody: Are CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore making the leap this year? And where do you think Abrams’s long-term defensive home is? Second base?
Keith Law: Thorpe: No idea why he’s in AA. I would get him to AAA and see what happens there with his below-average FB. He’s not missing a ton of bats in AA right now, but he’s too good of a pitcher (in terms of feel, mixing pitches, command) for that level. I wouldn’t call him up tot he majors now or soon.
Keith Law: Abrams: He was on my breakouts list, so of course I hope this is real. I thought we’d see more hard contact, and we are, even though his top-end contact quality hasn’t changed.

Gore: I want to believe, and there are some things here I think are sustainable, like the improved strike-throwing, and at least some of the reduction in hard contact allowed. He’s such a good athlete that I figured at some point he’d get that delivery consistent enough to be a low walk guy.

Justin: Do we have any idea what’s up with River Ryan?   Any chance this injury results in him having high quality bullets left in September for the big league club?
Keith Law: He was supposed to be out 4-6 weeks, I think. I am assuming we’ll see him rehabbing very soon, based on that timetable. I would not anticipate him pitching in the majors this year.

Guest: Alex Bohm has been hitting really well but his defense has surprised me. I am not saying he’s even average but his turnaround from where he was at his lowest has been a surprise to even get to the point where he is at now.  What do you make of his defense?
Keith Law: I think he’s at least a 50 (average) defender now. He started to show a lot of this last year, and so far this year he’s been that guy more consistently.

Braydon: Brody Brecht has been much better his last two starts. Can his final few starts of the year improve his draft stock significantly?
Keith Law: I don’t think “significantly,” but maybe slightly. He’s probably the fourth college starter taken after Burns, Smith, Yesavage. Word is the Angels would just take Yesavage and rush him to the big leagues. If that’s true those three arms all go in the top ten, and then we may not see another pitcher taken until the back half of the round.

JT: How does Kurtz compare to recent bat first 1B draftees such as Vaughn and Torkelson?
Keith Law: He reminds me a lot of Vaughn, but he’s a LHB, and I think he has better bat speed right now than Vaughn did. Still a worrisome profile. Was very glad to see Kurtz come back from the injury and get way more aggressive – when I saw him this year and even last year I worried he was taking to take, happy to walk, rather than looking to do damage in advantageous counts.
Keith Law: Torkelson was a different profile – nowhere near as disciplined as the other two, more raw power, decent argument he was power over hit. I ranked him highly, so I don’t want to make it sound like I didn’t like him or think he was a good pick, but I didn’t think he was a great athlete and thought he was a guy who’d have to hit from day one because he may not make adjustments that easily.
Keith Law: Vaughn, BTW, may be one of the biggest busts in the last 20 years. That guy dominated in the Pac-12 for three years – the Pac-12 used to be a major college conference, kids – and there was nothing about the swing to make you doubt he’d at least hit for average with high OBPs. The White Sox definitely rushed him, but at some point he needs to make an adjustment, too.

Jibraun: I know it’s only been a month, but is it too early to think Goldschmidt is in age-related decline? He looks like he has lost bat speed, and he is compensating by cheating fastball and guessing.
Keith Law: I think that’s exactly what’s happening. He does seem to have lost bat speed. Father Time is undefeated.

Jordan Walker: What is going on? Why can’tI hit in the majors? A piece in the Athletic thinks hitting too low in the lineup is partially to blame. That can’t be true?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with that premise, and I think “can’t hit” is too strong. He hits the ball extremely hard, and he makes plenty of contact on pitches in the zone. I think there are some minor swing decision issues, and he hit the ball on the ground too often in the majors this year, but man, give the guy more than a month. It feels like they’re scrambling.

Aaron C.: It’s been 30 days. Small sample size caveats duly noted. Have you heard any indication that Jacob Wilson has been eating his Wheaties or hitting the weight room or otherwise gotten stronger? Am I trying to read too much into his hot start at Midland? WHO CAN SAY
Keith Law: Haha. I will say he’s doing all the damage at Midland, a crazy hitter’s park.

Jake: Surprised by the amazing start by Imonaga?
Keith Law: No. He’s a good pitcher doing really well in a small sample. I would be surprised if he did this all year, yes.

Jake: Any thoughts on Sasaki as a prospect or is it too soon?
Keith Law: No idea. He’s too far off the radar for me to worry about.

Louise: I re-read your piece on the Cubs signing Imanaga. Would you say you are feeling better about this concern?

“My main concern is that he cuts himself off in his landing and spins off his front heel, giving right-handed hitters too good of a look at the ball, which is how they tagged him for 13 of the 17 homers he allowed last season in NPB. Getting him even slightly more online plus using the splitter more to right-handers could be a remedy if that turns out to be an issue for him against MLB hitters.”
https://theathletic.com/5191790/2024/01/10/shota-imanaga-chicago-cubs-…
Keith Law: No, because we’re still looking at a tiny sample, and if you think he’s going to maintain a sub-5% HR/flyball rate or a 90% strand rate, well, good luck. He’s a solid major-league starter. When the weather warms up, will all those flyballs stay in the park?

Aaron C.: There’s a popular prompt that asks which pro athlete would you wish had a 100% healthy career. The best answer is usually Bo Jackson, of course. Since you’ve started scouting who is the guy(s) you most wish had been blessed with better health?
Keith Law: How about Byron Buxton?

Aaron C.: Whatcha got in the current weeknight dinner rotation? Looking to appease my beloved, but often ungrateful family.
Keith Law: Spring means more salads, for sure. My wife and I split cooking duties, so I cook about half of the nights, and I try to do at least one pasta dish a week. Sometimes it’s pasta alla vodka, sometimes pasta with fresh pesto (it’s warm enough now for the basil plants to survive outdoors), sometimes a pasta dish I made up with sun-dried tomatoes, white beans, and parmiggiano broth.
Keith Law: oh and pizza – once my travel dies down in 2-3 weeks I’ll get the Ooni rocking again.

mike: Do the BlueJays move on from Bo and Vladdy?? Right now their value is very low but Something sure isn’t working with both guys – and they have looked ordinary for quite some time.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t sell low, if that’s your question.

Ian: What are your thoughts on Marcelo Mayer’s start to the season? It looks like he is healthy and mashing. It felt like a bit of his shine wore off last year with the injuries.
Keith Law: I agree with your last two sentences. I think there was an overreaction to him not performing when he wasn’t 100% healthy. That said, in a limited sample, he’s doing all of his damage off fastballs, and he’s struggling against breaking stuff, especially sliders. Worth monitoring, although I am not backing off my top-10 overall ranking for him.

The Master Without Margarita: Roddery Munoz is obviously not this good, but can he be actually decent?
Keith Law: He walked a man an inning in AAA before they called him up. He walked 15% of guys last year across the Nats’ system. I do not believe he has suddenly found the strike zone on the bus from Jacksonville to Miami.

Tim: Tyler Freeman looks good under the hood – strong plate skills, good contact rates, consistently hitting the ball hard – but the results are dreadful to this point. Do you think the results eventually catch up to the process?
Keith Law: Until this year it’s been all groundballs – I mean, you can see a parallel to Walker, until you look at the two players’ bodies. If Freeman is actually lifting the ball more, he can probably end up an average regular somewhere. I have my doubts that this is really him.

Tim: Is Zac Veen back? Still a chance of an above-average regular here?
Keith Law: This is now his third partial year in AA. I wouldn’t get overly excited about a hot four weeks in a level where he played in 2023 and 2022.

Oscar W: Yoelqui “would be ranked lower as ‘bagodonuts” Céspedes is now playing independent baseball in Fargo ND. Surprised he’s out of affiliate baseball so quick? A lot of Cuban prospects are older but why such a high bust rate (Tomas, Rusney, Yoan L, etc). Even the successes are not as bright Yoenis/Moncada.
Keith Law: I give the White Sox a ton of credit for just moving on. He wasn’t happening, ever, so why waste the time and roster spot on him?

Sean: Have heard some buzz on low-A arms Santiago Suarez and Charlee Soto as early season breakouts. Do you see both as long-term starters? Either with mid or top of rotation potential?
Keith Law: Both have TOR potential, with low probability. Suarez > Soto, I think.

harry coffeeboat: keith – huge fan! what do you know about that palmquist guy from colorado? is it possible he finally becomes a legit rockies starter?
Keith Law: I think that’s a no-doubt reliever with his arm slot.

Mart: How was your trip to Pittsburgh to see WVU dominate the panthers
Keith Law: Great! Caught up with three of my old classmates from Tepper, and we got an absolutely perfect day for baseball. Plus I had a great lunch at Areppita’s downtown – I stayed right near there so I walked everywhere, including to/from PNC.

Guest: Thoughts on loperfido as a prospect?
Keith Law: Right here: https://theathletic.com/5263881/2024/02/14/astros-2024-top-prospects-k…

Guest: Do you consider cam fisher a legit prospect?
Keith Law: He’s 23 and striking out over a third of the time in the hitter’s paradise of Asheville. It’s power without hit.

Andy: How do you feel about Iowa’s strategy on high school baseball, with it not starting until May. It means you’re more likely to get more of the season in, but does it hurt when it comes to recruiting/scouting?
Keith Law: The real prospects end up playing for local travel teams or in the league Perfect Game runs out there, so they get seen anyway. I have mixed feelings; if the real purpose is to benefit the players, then starting later is clearly better, because you can’t bank on decent weather there until about now and you don’t want kids playing in cold and/or damp conditions.

Sedona: Have you watched Ranger Suarez’s starts this year?  Do you think he’s turned the corner and perhaps the best 3 in the game or better?
Keith Law: He’s a 2 on just about any team.

CW Tampa Tarpons: Have you had a chance to watch Leo De Vries, and if so, what’s your first impression?
Keith Law: Got a look at him in spring training: https://theathletic.com/5352531/2024/03/19/scouting-mlb-breakout-games…

Sedona: We’re always looking for the next breakout Ace from the DSL in the Fantasy Dynasty Community.  Who do you think has a chance to be the next Eury?  Have you heard anything about Jeter Martinez?
Keith Law: I saw him in the spring … great arm, chance for a starter, didn’t love the delivery.

CW Tampa Tarpons: Any chance Justin Crawford makes it to the bigs this year, or is 2025 and beyond more realistic?
Keith Law: Zero chance. He’s in high A and is only 20.

Xander: You were the high man on Wilyer Abreu and that’s looking quite savvy at the moment – what kind of player does he settle in as?  His continued BB% and K% improvement is really encouraging, is this a 4-5 WAR guy or more like 3 WAR?
Keith Law: I’d take the 4+ WAR.

PJ: Is Hayden Wesneski’s future as a 2-3 inning guy (like a Scot Shields type) or can he be a long-term starter.
Keith Law: I think he’s more of a bulk guy, but can make some spot starts.

andy: gimme a mlb floor and ceiling comp for charlie condon
Keith Law: I don’t really do player comps unless they are blindingly obvious to me. He’s got a chance to be a superstar – it’s 30 homer power with hard, hard contact and a strong eye. Probably ends up in RF.

Tripp: Possibly odd question about Caminero. Love the opposite field power, but he hits a lot of balls to right. Is him being routinely late a potential cause of concern? Could big time velocity be an issue for him?
Keith Law: Not that I’ve seen or heard.

Sedona: We see an uptick in young pitchers learning the splitter.  Tanner Houck looks like an ace so far.  Is this real?
Keith Law: I think so. I was always down on him as a starter because he had no weapon for LHB, and the lower arm slot gave those guys too much of a look at the ball. The splitter directly addresses that issue. I’ve been a splitter advocate forever, since I was with Toronto – I know of no actual evidence it increases injury risk, and if a guy can throw it, it’s a great alternative to a changeup (and straight changeups are losing popularity).

Justin Y: Will Warren looks like he can pitch, do you have the same concerns you had prior to this season?
Keith Law: I don’t know what you mean when you say he “looks like he can pitch.” Are you saying he has good control? He does. Command? Less so, but sure. My main concern on him going back to forever is that left-handed batters whack him around, and they’re doing so again (.500 SLG).

Bobby: Any of the international free agents looking better or worse to you than expected?
Keith Law: Most of them haven’t even played yet.

Josh: Any new thoughts on Andy Pages? He’s been solid in the bigs so far. Know you liked him in the past and was worried about the injury last year. Just wondering if there’s anything in his MLB performance that has you excited.
Keith Law: I overreacted to the shoulder injury. That’s my mistake. I’m buying, fully. Above-average regular.

Kevin W: Do you feel any different physically at 50 than 40?
Keith Law: Yes. Certainly slower to bounce back from exercise. I’ve got some compression in a disc in my lower back that’s probably age-related, but it’s become a chronic thing. And I need glasses more and more.

Brett: Which Dodgers OF are you higher on as of now, Josue De Paula or Zyhir Hope?
Keith Law: De Paula, same as in February.

Kevin W: How is the college application process going with your daughter?
Keith Law: She picked a school a few weeks ago, so it’s all done, and I think she’s more relieved than anything else. The New York Times has a great story from yesterday on what a shitshow it’s been this year.

Mike Trout: I’m seeing (bad faith) comparisons drawn between things like the college protests and the insurrection or Noem’s puppy killing and the treatment of the Biden dogs. How do we convince people that these things are not at all the same?
Keith Law: I am not sanguine about convincing people who are already convinced. I agree those are bad-faith comparisons, but people offering them aren’t coming from a place of critical thinking.

Adam D.: With Reggie Crawford at Double-A, am I crazy to think he could be a bullpen option for the Giants this summer?
Keith Law: They sure as hell seem to want him that way. At this rate he won’t be built up to start until 2029.

A Salty Scientist: In recent years lots of prospects have really struggled with the MLB transition. One hypothesis I’ve seen is that the reduction of minor league teams has bled out some of the veteran AAAA types that increase the challenge for top prospects. Not sure that I buy that, but curious if you have any thoughts.
Keith Law: I agree, and I’ve been saying so (based on feedback from scouts) since 2021. Mike Elias made very similar, pointed comments on it last week when they sent Holliday down. I also think that the rise of pitching labs & pitch design has made major-league pitching stronger than ever – and if you can make those adjustments, you don’t stay in the minors long, so the caliber of pitching down there hasn’t advanced as quickly.

Jimmy: Is ’Change Shapes’ more the in wheelhouse for Lauren Mayberry’s solo stuff?
Keith Law: I like it more than the first two singles.

A Salty Scientist: A formal mea culpa has to come from the Vatican, otherwise it’s just a sparkling apology. (not sorry)
Keith Law: I’ll allow it.

Rob: Christopher Morel is (unfortunately) floundering at 3B this season, both at the plate and in the field. If you were Jed, when would Matt Shaw start his decade long dominance at 3B for the Cubs?
Keith Law: I’m a Shaw believer but he has cooled off the last two weeks and I wouldn’t rush him to fill a need.
Keith Law: Meaning you don’t call a guy up from AA when he’s not hitting that well overall.

Frank: Why isnt Skenes in the majors?  This seems like pure service time manipulation at this point.
Keith Law: It’s not service-time manipulation; that date already passed. That’s not a fair criticism. I think Skenes belongs in the majors, but I don’t think there’s a nefarious reason why he’s not.

John: Is Konnor Griffin to the Nats possible (I know it is early).  Does he fit what Ciolek and Haas like?  I hope they can get him to 10 similar to House in 2021.  Thank you.
Keith Law: I’d be surprised. I don’t think that’s their type of player.

Tim: What’s up with Corbin?  Sophomore slump or something more?
Keith Law: Last I looked he wasn’t making anywhere near as much hard contact as last year. Could be a fluke, could be he’s fighting some small injury we don’t know about.

Steve: I name you President of a small market team tomorrow (in a city with great food, just so we can keep you).    What are the 3 things you are going to push the owner to spend on that will give him the most return on his spendings?
Keith Law: People. A full scouting staff, amateur and pro. Plenty of coaches and instructors in player development. The same for R&D, even though those employees are the most expensive. I do not believe you can McKinsey your way to a championship.

Steve: Question on Nolan McLean.   As much as it’s 70 power, it looks like it’s a 30 hit tool.    Do you think letting him continue to hit hurts his potential development on the mound, or do you keep letting him go until he fails enough to come to that conclusion on his own?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s hurting him to hit a little because I think he’s going to end up in the bullpen anyway.

Steve: Hi Keith – process question for you.    Given SSS, how do you go about updating your thoughts on prospects who start off hot or cold?   If you see crazy stats (either way) for someone, do you call the team and ask, try to get in and see them, or just ignore until June/July?
Keith Law: There’s a reason I haven’t done that yet. I’ll probably update the pro list later in May or early in June, depending on travel. But right now it would be overreaction theatre, or it would just be me repeating stuff I said in February.

Tracy: I just finished reading Jonathan Strange and Mr Norrell. While it was certainly imaginative and well thought out, I found it long and plodding; it did not grab my attention and I had a hard time finishing it. Just my opinion. Anyway, I’ve always wanted to ask: is there an author whose prose style you enjoy so much that it doesn’t matter what the story is?
Keith Law: Ann Patchett.

CK: Do you find writing to be therapeutic, or not really because it is your job?
Keith Law: I love writing. Doesn’t matter what it’s about. And the more I write the better I tend to feel.

Chris P: I see JJ Wetherholt is back to hitting very well, but has he still been off the diamond or are they getting him reps at short?
Keith Law: I saw him stand at short on Tuesday at PNC Park. He should only be DHing. He hit pretty well for a guy with one leg, though.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions and your readership. I’ll do another one at least when I update my draft rankings in a couple of weeks. Stay safe.

My top 50 draft prospects ranking is now up for subscribers to The Athletic.

Keith Law: I need to lighten my load. Klawchat.

Hogie: You said during spring training that you didn’t think James Wood was ready for the majors. Have you changed your mind at all given his start in Rochester?
Keith Law: No, because it’s April 18th. It’s a minuscule sample.

Guest: have you seen Cade McGee at Texas Tech. Saw him the other night against Arkansas. Good power, looks athletic, been hit by a pitch 20 times this year which has, along with 31 walks really helped his OBP which is around .500
Keith Law: I haven’t seen Texas Tech, but McGee isn’t showing much power or hard contact in games. I also don’t view high HBP totals as a particularly valuable skill.

JD: Is Pages ready to stick at the major league level or do you anticipate this will be a short stay for him and that he needs more time at AAA?
Keith Law: He was really good in the 50 games he did play last year and this year around the shoulder injury, with what looked like a more advanced approach than he’d had in 2022. “Short stay” is really about team needs, but if they’re willing to give him the time to adjust I think he can have a positive WAR this year.

Taylor Swift: Will you be listening to the Tortured Poets Department tonight?
Keith Law: I didn’t know that album was coming out tonight. (I knew it was coming out at some point.)

J: 18 year-old Nelson Rada is at AA for the Angels for no discernible reason.  Why is Nelson Rada at AA? Why skip High-A? Why?
Keith Law: I have no idea.

Lucas: If I remember correctly, Jordan Westburg was seen as a little bit of a gutsy pick in 2020 because there were some swing and miss issues at Mississippi State. How has he gotten better in a relatively short period of time?
Keith Law: He was a COVID year pick, and was off to a good start at MSU. It’s quite possible he’d already started making that adjustment and we didn’t see it in enough of a sample because the world ended.

Drew: As a Cleveland fan, it seems like there’s separation between Condon and everyone else. How worried should I be they’ll cut a deal with a lesser player in a draft that seems weak for overslot guys later?
Keith Law: Very.

Guest: What should we make of Jackson Hollidays slow start at the plate?
Keith Law: Nothing.

Mike: Mike Trout is good at baseball.
Keith Law: He is. But go look at what he did in his first call-up.

BC: With Morel playing improved defense at third recently, is there still a path to the Cubs for Matt Shaw this year?
Keith Law: Improved defense? He’s already at -2 OAA and it’s not even May. Come on.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Matthew Etzel showed up in your Orioles prospect honorable mentions – so far he’s had a handful of multi-hit games (admittedly aided by miserable MiLB infield defense), but do you have any read on his CF play?
Keith Law: No idea, haven’t seen him or much minor league stuff yet while I focus on the draft.

Derek: Hi Keith, been following your work for years and why I paid for ESPN and now the Athletic.  Surprised to see you venture to more in front of the camera with Stadium.  I’ll admit I haven’t had a chance to watch your show yet and didn’t seem like I could go back and watch it.  Curious what made you decide to work with Stadium?  Will it impact any of your writing with the Athletic?
Keith Law: They approached me. It won’t affect my writing – they’re two separate deals.

Heston Kjerstad: Would I be a better piece in the O’s lineup right now than, say, O’Hearn or Mountcastle?
Keith Law: I think so.

Jason: Does DL hall profile more as a reliever long term?
Keith Law: It’s a real risk. I’m surprised that his issue has been lots of contact versus him just not throwing strikes.

J: Brandon McCarthy was talking about the Pirates’ handling of Skenes thus far at AAA, saying, “what are we doing?” Jared Jones was pulled by the Pirates after 59 pitches and 5 innings. At what point do teams stop ‘building’ pitchers up, and let them pitch? Not overworking young arms is one thing; this feels preposterous, counter-productive, and not based in anything but fear. Sorry if the actual question got lost in the shuffle, but I suppose it’s: When will this stop?
Keith Law: I really think we have enough evidence to say that limiting pitch counts reduces the incidence of shoulder injuries, but that limiting them to this extent doesn’t reduce the incidence entirely and it doesn’t reduce the incidence of UCL tears. I haven’t asked any Pirates people what’s going on, but I have the same question from afar. Let them pitch reasonable workloads and respond accordingly if they report pain or discomfort or fatigue (or if pitch data shows it).

Gordon: Didn’t think Michael Busch would be this good this quick. Does he really have this much power or is he still a 20 hr guy?
Keith Law: Still think he’s a 20 homer guy … I mean, maybe he’s a 24 homer guy, there’s always a range around those estimates, but I wouldn’t overreact to a hot start. He’s a good player. If he’s a superstar, I’d be surprised.

Justin: Obviously baseball is a very dangerous workplace as far as injuries go.   If any of our workplaces caused ligament surgeries every day, I’m not sure they’d still exist.  What is it about baseball and sports in general that make it ethical to continue subjecting people to activities that are clearly awful for the human body?  Informed consent?
Keith Law: The potential for seven- or eight-figure salaries.

J: Matt Shaw crushing AA (SSS and all that). Odds he makes the bigs this season? Before September?
Keith Law: I said before the season I thought he’d be up to play third base at some point – I still think more like midyear, and that they’ll push Shaw to AAA first.

Garrett: What’s your take on how CJ Abrams has looked so far?
Keith Law: Also a SSS, but I’m at least happy to see that he’s doing what I said he’d do and making much harder contact. There’s something sustainable here.

RL: Do you think lack of sticky stuff is contributing to arm injuries as some pitchers have said?
Keith Law: I’ve seen no evidence to back that up. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong – I just can’t support or debunk it.

Jacob: Thoughts on Rangers calling up Leiter?
Keith Law: I think he can help in some role – the arm action was cleaner in the spring and his body looked better. Only faced 57 batters in AAA but he at least was way more in the zone.

Steve: M’s seem to have been very aggressive with Clase. Have you heard of any adjustments that he has made that might allow him to stick, or is he destined to K too much?
Keith Law: I don’t believe he’s changed anything. Contact is going to be a chronic issue for him.

Mario: In your piece you noted that the draft class isn’t great after the second tier. Would this make teams less likely to try and spread out money and pick signability players in the top 10
Keith Law: Yes, it’s a terrible year to do that. Your best hope for an over-slot guy at your second pick is going to be a high school pitcher, and while I’m fine with teams taking those guys with later picks, I wouldn’t take a lesser player in the top 10 this year just to go get a better HS arm.

MagicOriole: What do you attribute Colton Cowser’s hot start to? Has he changed much from your prospect evaluation?
Keith Law: A .500 BABIP.

Rick: With all the recent call ups, who’s gonna be your mid-season Top Prospect?
Keith Law: It almost has to be Ethan Salas. He’s the top guy still in the minors, and if I did a live update now he’d be #1.

Nate: From a Stros fan…how much longer do you think it’ll take Jim crane to realize Jeff Bagwell doesn’t, in fact know baseball half as well as he thinks he does?
Keith Law: They have to fail at some point. Or I guess maybe waste another $50 million.

Mike: Think Christian Scott’s strong start indicates hes a potential number 2?
Keith Law: I don’t think his strong start indicates anything different from what we thought about him three weeks ago.

JR: Did you read Shogun? Are you watching/planning to watch the FX series airing right now? I’ve never read, but am really enjoying the show.
Keith Law: Never read. I know my parents liked the 1980s miniseries. They watched all of those like the Thorn Birds.

Jake: Any reason why there are so few HS guys you are high on compared to other years? Is Covid why they didn’t develop or is it just a fluke?
Keith Law: They’re just not out there this year, unfortunately. I don’t think there’s a reason – COVID didn’t hurt the 2023 HS class, for example. Just a down year for HS bats. The result will probably be some of them get drafted higher than area scouts expect – I hear more sandwich/second on Carter Johnson, for example, but I bet he sneaks into the late first.

Caleb: SSS alert!  But Masyn Winn has performed better-than-advertised at the plate so far, especially taking the ball the other way.  Change in approach that might lead to better numbers, or just SSS?
Keith Law: SSS but he’s also hitting the ball quite a bit harder this year, and making some better swing decisions than he did in his callup. That last bit is more in line with the hitter he was in the minors.

Chris: The Red Sox haven’t drafted a pitcher in the first round since 2017 and their farm system certainly reflects that. Could they finally do it this year?
Keith Law: Sure, I am not aware of any rule that prevents them from doing so.

Julie: Thank you for not sounding the alarm on Holliday. He’s less than two years out of high school playing 2nd base every day for a contender. The lineup he’s in is stacked. The O’s can afford for him to go through some growing pains, because the other guys will cover him. He will figure it out in the next few weeks and people will forget his slow start.
Keith Law: And maybe they send him back down at some point. He’ll be fine.

Refugee: Do you think the ball is juiced this year?
Keith Law: I think something is up in the college ranks. Either the ball is different, or the bats are.

I’m Joey Callo…C-allo: Any idea why Atlanta has decided to platoon Jared Kelenic. He didn’t show a platoon split in his breakout year last year and at 24 it seems a little early to pigeon-hole him that way.
Keith Law: He does have a platoon split for his career, and I think between Atlanta trying to win now and the hope that they can develop him into at least a good part-time player, platooning him in the short term is fine.

Kevin: Tanner Houck has added a solid splitter to his arsenal. Any chance he can be a mid rotation starter with this 3 pitch mix?
Keith Law: If that splitter really is the weapon he’s never had for LHB, then yes. That’s always been my main argument against him being a starter.

Alex: Among Braves pitching prospects, Owen Murphy is looking good so far and Hurston Waldrep is struggling. Anything about either of them in the early going that you’d take as grounds for optimism or concern?
Keith Law: It’s two outings for each guy.

Brent: Hey Klaw! Hope you’re enjoying the season more than this ChiSox fan. Boardgame question, have you played Memoir ’44? From the company that made Ticket to Ride. Love history and boardgames. Able to recommend?
Keith Law: Never played it.

Joe: Anything interesting going on with your gardening this year?
Keith Law: We tried to get an early start with our little greenhouse but the weather here has been so bad until this week that I think a lot of our efforts were wasted because we couldn’t transplant, either for cold or for torrential rains. We’re trying mostly to grow stuff that we will definitely eat – right now it’s peas, green beans, radishes, beets (ok that’s just me and my wife), mixed lettuce.

Bill: Gabe Arias for Real ?
Keith Law: Do I think a player with a .417 BABIP is for real? No, sir, I do not.

Sam Roberts: Is Cam Caminiti still a R1 in a better draft year?
Keith Law: I think he’s a first-round bonus guy. That could come after the actual first round ends, but in a strong year maybe he ends up a comp pick.

Tom: What do you about Tegan Kuhns (Gettysburg (PA))?
Keith Law: He’s on the list I posted today.

Bill: Since you’ll be in Chicago weekly….will you be checking out any Northwoods league Games ?
Keith Law: I doubt it. They’re not close to Chicago.

RH: Do you think top college hitters this year will try to force their way to the Angels so they can debut faster?
Keith Law: No, players just don’t have that kind of control over where they’re drafted. I do think the Angels will take whichever guy left on the board could be rushed to the majors this year.

Patrick: Do you see a six-man rotation coming into vogue, in an effort to minimize potential SP injuries?
Keith Law: I don’t see or know of any evidence that it would work. Do guys just exert more effort then because they’ve had the extra day to rest? The one factor for UCL tears which there is some actual research is throwing as hard as you can, as often as you can. In other words, if your personal max velocity is 94, and you sit 93-94 all the time, while personal max velocity is 98 but I sit 95-96 all the time, I might have a little lower risk of a UCL tear than you do.

Yinka Double Dare: How many messages will you send to Montverde begging them to be open on Mondays since that’s when you’re already in the city within a mile or so of them?
Keith Law: As much as I love that place, there are plenty of other places I need to try too.

Andrew: Not a prospect question, but I don’t see/hear anyone complaining about the netting around the ballpark.  What happened?
Keith Law: They’re busy complaining about DEI or trans people or some other non-issue.

Chris P: Hey Klaw, do you see Gage Jump being a starter in the pros and if so, could he likely go in the 2nd round?
Keith Law: He could go in the second round but I don’t think there’s any chance he can start with that delivery.

John: My son (15) just started playing baseball but loves pitching, doesn’t throw hard so he throws off speed mostly is the idea that curveballs shouldn’t be thrown out-dated or does the data support that?  I can’t find reliable information and just want what is best for him
Keith Law: That was an old hypothesis that I don’t think has held up under scrutiny.

James: Jackson Merrill looks better than expected at CF right now. Think he’ll stick there and ever be better than average with the glove?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s a good enough athlete and runner and smart enough kid that he could end up above-average out there. I’ve been pleasantly surprised how quickly he seems to have taken to it.

JR: Any thoughts on current state of college athletics, with unlimited transfers and unregulated NIL money? Has the impact hit college baseball yet? College Basketball/Football players are essentially one year free agents now, lol. On a macrolevel it’s great for the players, on a microlevel, it’s tough to be a fan of school (especially a mid-major school like mine) when the rosters practically turn over every year.
Keith Law: Yes, we see a ton of transfers, especially for players’ draft years, and I say hell yeah. The NCAA exploited players for decades. It’s about time that the players regain some control here.

Jake: SSS and all, but have you heard/seen anything about Marco Luciano changing his approach? A 19% walks rate and a .069 ISO don’t look like the Marco we’ve seen in the past.
Keith Law: tiny sample and it’s the PCL with the ABS half the time.

Jake: A few years ago the Braves got Strider in the 4th round. How did he last that long, especially in what seems like a weakish draft. Any similar hi ceiling, low floor guys this year?
Keith Law: That’s a bit revisionist. Strider blew out and missed 2019, then threw 12 innings in 2020 before the season ended. He was barely seen. As for similar guys … honestly, if I thought there was a Strider type in this draft I’d have had him on the rankings today in the top 20.

Trav: In the limited time I’ve watched Luciano play short, he’s looked awfully… not great. It was surprising how much the Giants publicly positioned him as their plan there before the season. How long can that possibly go on?
Keith Law: The sooner they move him, the better for his development.

Ryan: Druw Jones has struck out 23 times in 40 PAs this year – is he cooked?
Keith Law: 5 Ks two games ago, too. I’m very concerned – maybe the shoulder is still messed up, maybe he’s pressing, but I don’t think you could find anyone who thought he’d struggle like this in low A. I’d consider getting him out of there when the rookie leagues start up on May 4th. Let him go back to the complex, hope he rakes against worse competition, and get him the time with your coaches at the facility. But yeah, this is terrifying.

John: If a team thinks that the 2025 draft is better than this one, would they consider intentionally not signing a pick to get a comp pick in 2025?  Pick 31 in 2025 > pick 30 in 2024?  Too risky?
Keith Law: I get this question almost every year, and my answer is always the same: Absolutely not. It’s the worst idea imaginable, not least because you just increase the chance that someone else is making that pick next year instead of you.

Jackie: Say something positive about the Rockies.  Anything.
Keith Law: Sterlin Thompson can really hit.

Chris P: Who are some of the bigger helium guys so far that are shooting up draft lists?
Keith Law: I’d look at the top 50 today but Lindsey is probably the biggest such name. Tyson Lewis too.

JJ: Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel, Roman Anthony — which one’s the star, which one’s OK, and which one’s the bust?
Keith Law: I think Mayer and Anthony are stars and Teel is a solid regular.

RoyalBlue: Is Salvy Perez a HOFer?
Keith Law: No.

KMac: 100+ velo is looking more like a curse than a gift. Can you see FOs shying away from 80 grade fastballs in the draft (possibly accepting 6’6”+ relievers)? Or potentially avoiding extensions for this group of talent?
Keith Law: I think teams will start valuing very hard throwing teenagers differently.

Section 34: Seriously, Kjerstad over O’Hearn (1.044 OPS) or Mountcastle (.867 OPS)? Why would a team bench an MLB player who’s performing. We’re not talking about Austin Hays or Ramon Urias.
Keith Law: Could do it for those guys too. Do you think ROH is a 1000 OPS guy (ignoring how much OPS sucks as a stat)? I don’t.

CVD: When a guy like James Wood is dominating AAA at 21 yrs old, and hitting lefties as well, playing good defense, etc- what else does he have to do to get called up?   Just keep doing it for another month?
Keith Law: It’s two weeks. You have to read the calendar.

Kris: Noah Schultz, the next Ryan Anderson or someone that can fill a 4/5 SP role.
Keith Law: If healthy, a high-end starter. High injury risk.

Mike: Going to a game in Charlotte this weekend. Any good places to eat there that you like?
Keith Law: Amelie’s for breakfast/lunch/pastries. Inizio pizza. Customshop for fine dining. I rarely stay in Charlotte when I’m down that way – I fly in there a lot but then drive somewhere else.

Chip: Gun to your head, odds the A’s build a ballpark in Vegas and actually move there?
Keith Law: 25%.

Ernest: I stopped following sports for 10 years and have gotten back into it this year and noticed a pitch called the sweeper. Is this a new pitch or did the slider go through a rebranding?
Keith Law: It’s a variation of a slider. And it doesn’t sweep, which is why I think the name is stupid. My stepdaughters agree that the Yankees’ name for it, the whirlybird, is a much better choice.

Danny: Does 50% strikeout rate in only 50 PA show Roderick Arias is not ready for full season ball?
Keith Law: Not in ~ten games.

Jake: Although he seems cooked now, how do you scout a soft thrower like Kyle Hendricks who has had a remarkable career for a guy out of Dartmouth that barely touched 90 at his peak?
Keith Law: I find those guys incredibly difficult to identify – most guys with that stuff won’t even be big-league starters, or maybe just 5th starters. Did anyone foresee Hendricks having this kind of elite command? The Rangers didn’t. I honestly don’t think the Cubs did either.

Danny: You were on Corbin Caroll during his draft year- how does he compare to Caldwell? Caldwell is even smaller right?
Keith Law: Caldwell is smaller and not as strong. Carroll had more power at teh same age.

Ben: Keith – do you celebrate Thanksgiving?
Keith Law: How does one “celebrate” Thanksgiving? Do I cook a meal and eat it? Yes. I do that a lot of days.

Kris: Salas over Caminero? How close is that one?
Keith Law: It’s not that close.

Heather: Why does the media treat Robert Kennedy as anything other than a crackpot?  If you actually remember his dad, you’re almost in your 70s.  The vast majority of voters in this country weren’t around for the Kennedy Dynasty.  Even Teddy died 15 years ago.  Robert Jr. isn’t Yogi Berra; he’s Dale.
Keith Law: The mainstream media is beshitting itself in this election cycle. It’s embarrassment after embarrassment.

Greg: Any early indications on who the cardinals are looking at for pick 7?
Keith Law: Way too soon.

Dan: Do you think a version of Whitey Ball could work today? As a St. Louis kid it was so much fun watching those sliding pits waiting for someone to run.
Keith Law: No, it wouldn’t generate enough runs.

Rob: Do you see Jacob Berry as anything but a bust at this point
Keith Law: I think he’s a bust. What a bad pick that was.

HH: You say trans people are a “non issue” but what have they ever done to prevent foul balls from hitting spectators?;
Keith Law: Fair point!

Mario: In regards to the commenters question about college programs, coaches and universities are free to invest in creating programs where players feel valued, cared for, and want to stay. There’s no rules against it, as it turns out.
Keith Law: Yep. You don’t see a lot of guys transfer out of LSU or Wake Forest.

Patrick: With the time you will spend in Chicago–or really, any of your ‘frequent’ travel spots, do you try to work in an Alinea-type visit?
Keith Law: Those long tasting-menu places aren’t really my cup of tea. I can’t speak to Alinea’s food specifically but I don’t think they’re worth the time or expense.

Ridley: Have you had a chance to check out Polyphia, and, if so, what do ya think? They were originally tagged as “progressive metal,” although “every genre at once” is a better descriptor for the last two albums.
Keith Law: I haven’t but that sounds interesting.

RoyalBlue: Agree on OPS. What’s your go to metric to measure offensive production?
Keith Law: In the majors I prefer to look at wRC+. For prospects I’m less interested in total production than in how they’re getting there.

The Second of the Two Jakes: I’m pretty sure Whitey wouldn’t play Whitey-ball in today’s environment. He built his approach for the low HR context of his day.
Keith Law: I’m not sure. I know he tried to replicate a lot of that with the Angels when HR were exploding. The game had passed him by at that point.
Keith Law: OK, I need to wrap this up a few minutes early today but wanted to get one of these on the books with the draft rankings today. Thanks as always for reading – and to those of you who watched our show on Stadium on Monday. I don’t know if you can watch archived episodes but I’ll ask this week when I’m there. It’s live at 2 pm ET on the Stadium app if you have the time. Stay safe!