My latest game review for Paste covers Nyctophobia, a one-versus-many game where the ‘many’ players all wear blackout glasses and must play by touching the board and talking to their teammates.

Keith Law: Like a slow divorce … it’s Klawchat.

Joe: Keith, how bad does the Gausman trade look now the Orioles are very unlikely to be able to sign a top international player with the money they acquired?
Keith Law: As bad as it looked at the time they made the deal. They mishandled Gausman for years, and he’s already looked a little better since they traded him.

Nick: Matt Strahm – your thoughts? Starter? Long RP?
Keith Law: I still think he can start.

addoeh: Top Chef is in Kentucky this season, so expect plenty of bourbon and maybe a burgoo. I know you said you were out last year due to time, but will you come back this season even without the recaps?
Keith Law: I think so, although it’ll depend on how much time I find I have during prospect season + the glut of movies I’m already finding myself facing. It seems like we’re in for an extraordinary three months of very good movies coming out.

Aaron: Absolutely stunned that the reds didn’t choose a retread for their manager position (please don’t be Ausmus, please don’t be Ausmus.) What was his rep as a minor league coach?
Keith Law: Bell has a great reputation from when he managed and his work in player development. I know Giants people had nothing but great things to say about him. I don’t know how he’ll be as a tactical manager, or how well he’ll work with analytics, but I like that he has a lot of relevant experience.

John: Dear Dave Dombrowski, I’m sorry about all the things I said about you when you acquired Eovaldi instead of a bullpen arm. Sincerely, Johnny from Burger King
Keith Law: Turned out Eovaldi was both a floor wax and a bullpen arm!

Rob: Did you get to see Taylor Trammel while in Arizona?
Keith Law: Yep. I saw every position player who played other than a few taxi squad guys (they only play two days a week) and guys who were hurt (Luis Robert, of course).

John: Assuming that the DEA story has been fully debunked, does it make sense that no one ever picked up Hanley Ramirez for the league minimum?
Keith Law: He really has no position; it’s hard to find a spot for a guy like that, basically impossible in the NL.

Bill: I am opening a bookstore/cafe in Worcester, MA soon. Besides good brew, what sorts of things do you enjoy in such places (besides Smart Baseball!)?
Keith Law: The appeal of indie bookstores for me is the curation of the collection. You’re not selling all books, and really, if people want the latest James Patterson tripe, they can get that anywhere. I like to walk into a small bookstore and see that someone has taken the time to choose which books to sell and which books to highlight. Staffers who can talk books with me and help me discover new titles are always a bonus too. Also, donuts.

James: As a Royals fan, when should I realistically expect them to compete again? 2021?
Keith Law: That seems too soon given the state of the system.

Sam: Thoughts on Brodie Van Wagenen being a finalist for the Mets GM job? Do you feel the same way about GM jobs that you do manager jobs with respect to needing some level of experience?
Keith Law: In this case, I do. I don’t think hiring an agent who’s never worked in baseball ops to run the entire baseball ops department makes a lot of sense. The entire Mets GM search process seems badly flawed to me.

wearingwhitesoxinboston: Thoughts on the Baldelli hire? Like Cora and Roberts, he was an average player with bench coaching but no managerial experience. Is this a copy-cat move by the Twins or was he the best option? I am skeptical.
Keith Law: Cora had managerial experience.

Ron: Thoughts o n the Baldelli hire? Sounds analytical, young, has coaching and instructing experience and worked in the front office. Bad hire, good hire or “Meh”? But hasn’t managed.
Keith Law: I discussed this on the BBTN podcast this morning – I know Rocco well, and think very highly of him. He’s very bright and curious. He’s more than just open to new ideas and will work well with the stats guys. I believe he’ll be a good developmental manager. But as you said, he hasn’t managed, and that’s a negative regardless of who the candidate is. I hope he finds someone for his staff who has plenty of in-game experience and can help him learn that part of the game quickly; the track record of no-experience managers is poor.

Moe Mentum: Who starts at 1b for the Phillies on Opening Day 2019 – Santana, Hoskins, or other?
Keith Law: If it’s Hoskins, who’d be the ideal candidate in a vacuum, where does Santana play?

ScottyG: I keep hearing the Cardinals might trade Carlos Martinez this winter – I don’t get it……I know that everybody is available, but what would it take for you to deal him?
Keith Law: I don’t understand trading him now, coming off his worst year, where he didn’t stay healthy and ended up in the bullpen.

Hank: What kind of contribution do you see Eloy JIminez having next season? Is he on the level of Acuna and Soto (and potentially Vlad Jr)?
Keith Law: I think he’s a great prospect but is not on the level of those other three names.

Coarsegold: Thoughts on Manny Ramirez Hall of Fame credentials? B.S. Steroid nonsense aside.
Keith Law: He did test positive for PEDs/masking agents twice, so I’m not sure that’s just “B.S.” His case rests entirely on what you think of his defensive value; his bat clearly belongs. I don’t think he’ll be in my top ten this winter.

barbeach: Thanks for doing this chat. Is there anything that better reflects the Mets incredible dysfunction than the fact they apparently are seriously considering hiring an agent–an agent who reps some of their stars to boot–with no front office experience to run the organization?
Keith Law: Like I said above, it’s clearly a bad process. I get the strong sense they simply wanted to hire Melvin all along – perhaps because Bud Selig recommended him – and the rest was a charade.

Ben: Any chance Price opts out?
Keith Law: With known damage in his elbow? I don’t think so.

Aaron C.: The narrative seems to be that the A’s future is bright…but, is it? Relief pitching effectiveness is notoriously fluid from year-to-year. Question marks at C, 2B and OF. Regression from some A’s in your 2018 top ten team prospects list. And, not one identifiable starting pitcher for 2019 – outside of MAYBE unproven Jesus Luzardo. Weird for a 97-win team, no?
Keith Law: I agree – their system is just middle of the road, and the major league team benefited from a lot of performances that won’t be repeated, plus the likely departure of Lowrie’s production.

Danny: Hey Keith, you’ve previously mentioned that you are not as high on Brandon Nimmo as others because he is ineffective (I don’t remember your exact word choice) vs. lefties (I agreed with you). Though, someone pointed out to me that he actually posted a 112 wRC+ against LHP in 150 PAs this season. Does this change anything for you?
Keith Law: No, because that is a tiny sample, and he still punched out in 1/3 of those PA.

John: With the another team hiring a manager with no managing experience, what do minor league managers need to do to get noticed? Or are most MiLB managers just happy to be still in the game?
Keith Law: I’d really like to know what teams tell minor league managers when they’re hired or re-signed, knowing the old career path there has been largely destroyed.

Nate: Are there any political or social issues on which you take a Conservative position?
Keith Law: That term has no meaning in the abstract. “Conservative” is always relative to the rest of the populace at a specific time.

Dave: Trump is blaming the media for the pipe bombs, not himself, the GOP or anyone in his administration. At this point, does ANYTHING he says surprise you anymore?
Keith Law: No. Watching the same MAGA chuds who pushed pizzagate decry the #MAGABomber hashtag was unbefuckinglievable, though.

Brian: In your Fall League write ups you did not mention anything regarding Royals players participating. A case of nothing new to report or just not performing well enough to elicit a comment?
Keith Law: Khalil Lee didn’t look very good, and otherwise they didn’t send much in the way of prospects, since Matias was hurt, and their other top prospects are all still 19 years old or were just drafted.

Ben: Roberts says he plans to use Urias as a SP next year. Is this feasible to you?
Keith Law: That’s a question for the team doctor and training staff. I can only look at the history of pitchers who’ve had that surgery, which is very poor, but know no specifics on the state of his shoulder.

Nate: Assuming M. Andujar has to move off 3b, is 1b or LF better suited to him?
Keith Law: Probably first base, or right field, although the latter is occupied.

Salty: Heading out to AFL next week – did you stop at any new spots last week that you’d recommend?
Keith Law: Roland’s Market is open now – I went there Labor Day weekend and it was excellent. Glai Baan in Phoenix, serving Thai street food and lots of booze, was also tremendous. Copper & Cotton in south Tempe was solid but perhaps too out of the way for AFL visitors.

Mike: I really like Eppler as GM. He groomed and then hand picked Ausmus. Am I too hopeful?
Keith Law: That seemed like a weird hire to me, since Ausmus was literally 12 months removed from a managerial gig where he seemed to take no input from anyone analytical.

Seath: No question. Just wanted to say we went to Flour yesterday after visiting the MFA (they have a Winnie-the-Pooh exhibit right now) . Up until then only had their pastries. Can confirm their sandwiches are delicious and their bread is amazing!
Keith Law: awesome. flour is one of the places I miss most up in Boston.

Pistol Pete: Hey Keith, thoughts on the Greta Van Fleet album? Thoughts on Pitchfork (high on their horse) giving it a 1.6 review?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say I loved it – I feel like they’re a lot more Kingdom Come than Led Zeppelin – but a 1.6 is way harsher than I would have gone.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Read your review for The Mind and bought it immediately. About to try it out tonight. Any tips to getting through all the levels?
Keith Law: Not really – it’s about learning to play with your partners, understanding everyone’s rhythms. Don’t forget those throwing stars, which are very valuable.

Oscar: Tell me again why we’re all supposed to just be okay with that obvious pine tar/grease stain on Kimbrel’s hat that he touches before every pitch . . . ?
Keith Law: Because every pitcher seems to do it. Price touched the bill of his cap repeatedly last night. I have no idea if there’s a substance there, but no one batted an eye.

Joe: Non-baseball Q: what is your preferred coffee making vessel? We got about four different ones for our wedding, and I’m seeing positives and negatives from all of them.
Keith Law: I use a V60 for pour-over (drip) and then I own an espresso machine. I’ve never used an Aeropress, which is very trendy now.

Pat: In case you needed a laugh today, the Orioles announced this morning that they signed Kelvin LaRoche. They also announced on August 20th that they signed Kelvin LaRoche.
Keith Law: My favorite part of this is that they signed a shortstop named Machado. Just not that one.

Gabe: Any really good iOs app games lately? I don’t have time for actual board games in my life but do have some downtime with my devices at times.
Keith Law: Last new one I tried and liked was Istanbul. I did try the new Onitama app but the AI player was too easy.

ditcow: I noticed Dave Roberts’ mismanagement of his roster is owed less to stats and more to a habit of always matching lefties and righties. Do you find his moves in alignment with the front office?
Keith Law: I doubt the front office is really a fan of his in-game management.

Jesse B: I just assumed when Archer got out of the AL East he would flourish, but he struggled. Do you think that was just an adjustment period and he’ll be a lot better next year, or is the best behind him?
Keith Law: Still hold out hope for him, but there are some clear adjustments he’ll need to make.

Joel: I am embarrassed to say I missed last week’s klaw chat. Like a lot. Do the Braves gain much by trying to go after a big pitcher in FA? Seems like letting the younger kids pitch would allow them to spend a lot more money elsewhere
Keith Law: Yeah, and this year’s FA pitching class is slim; unless they’re signing a Corbin there’s a good chance anyone they sign is worse than the best in-house alternative.

Alec: Can we get the caravan to settle in your state? Care to take some of them in? Your party white state could use the diversity after all.
Keith Law: Actually, troll, Delaware has the 6th-highest percentage of residents who are African-American, and our white non-Latino percentage is well below the median. So fuck off.

Mac: Lots of Corbin Carroll love out there. Does he have the ceiling to be a top half of the 1st round guy?
Keith Law: Little early for that. He’s a day one guy, but beyond that let’s see how he looks in the spring.

Jesse: How has Gerson Bautista looked at AFL?
Keith Law: Just another middle reliever.

Mr. Redlegs: I know positional versatility is a positive, but moving Senzel everywhere but 3rd is a bit worrisome, no? Seems better to move Suarez back to short and platoon Gennett/Peraza rather than hope Senzel can play center.
Keith Law: I’ve argued this for a while now. Moving Senzel after he worked his ass off to be an average to above-average defender at third, and given his bat, is nuts.

Este: So creationism is “fantasy”, yet the THEORY of evolution is 100 percent fact…lol
Keith Law: Imagine finding this chat but not knowing what the word “theory” means in science. It boggles.

JJ: Thoughts on Counsell’s managerial performance in the playoffs? I was pleasantly surprised especially given his lack of managerial experience prior to getting the Brewers job.
Keith Law: I was impressed too – he was nimble in-game, seemed appropriately aggressive with his bullpen (given the weak starters), chased platoon advantages in high-leverage spots. Nice job.

Guest: Is Manny Machado and everyday SS. Per Baseball Reference he had a -1.2 dWAR with Baltimore and and a 1.2 dWAR with the Dodgers. Is it just positioning and if so, what the hell is wrong with Baltimore?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. That’s some small sample size stuff there, and I don’t think he’s really an Andrelton-level defender at short like the Dodgers figure would imply. He’s also really freaking large for a shortstop. Arm would play anywhere and I think his hands are fine, but covering all that ground that we still expect shortstops to cover is probably a bit much. Plus, he’s a 70 or 80 defender at third.

Rick Sanchez: Reds SP Luis Castillo killed it in the second half after an abysmal first half. What do you project for him long-term?
Keith Law: His second half was largely buoyed by an unsustainably low BABIP. He’s a back-end starter who’d probably be more effective in relief given his lack of a decent third pitch.

Jesse: Any of the lesser known mets in AFL showing well?
Keith Law: Nope, bad showing for the Mets guys, but they didn’t send a ton either.

Taco Tuesday: Charles Leblanc has been mentioned as a possible sleeper prospect for the Rangers — decent bat and the ability to play multiple positions in the infield. Did you see anything from him in Arizona that would suggest he could be a major leaguer at some point?
Keith Law: No – he was really bad in the field, too.

Matt: After finding out Schilling wasnt invited to Game 2, I took a gander at his Twitter account. Umm…he thinks the recent mail bombs are a liberal conspiracy to get people to vote. I mean what the actual fuck?
Keith Law: Yeah, I can’t think of a reason anyone could imagine skipping that guy.

Almir Lima Jr.: Hi Keith, greetings from Brazil! What do you read from this Mets GM search? After this brief statement by Chaim Bloom, it appears that Melvin is going to get the job. Is this just sad or is there any reason to believe that Melvin is the right man right now?
Keith Law: Tudo bem! I saw Bloom’s statement and it sounds like what I said above about the process was probably accurate.

Bill: Nico Hoerner is only player from the 2018 draft in the AFL. He was hurt mid-season so he needs at bats. How is he holding up against upper level competition?
Keith Law: Smart player but didn’t make much hard contact and he’s smaller than I thought. I think maybe a high-average/high OBP second baseman?

Adam: All this talk about pitchers throwing harder/more breaking balls as an excuse for passed balls and wild pitches this post season seems to ignore the fact that the playoff teams struggling the most with this either have catching as their weak spot or offensive minded catchers in general. Shouldn’t a strong defensive catcher be more of a commodity around the trade deadline (like RP’s) for reasons like this?
Keith Law: Also, good framers tend to have more passed balls/WP, per … Harry Pavlidis, I think, told me that on Twitter?

Jordan: Considering that he will be 20 next July, would it be a bad 2019 for Kelenic if he wasn’t in High-A by the end of season?
Keith Law: No, it wouldn’t be bad, but I think he’ll get there.

Rob: Now that the Orioles lost out on the Mesa brothers how do you expect them to spend all that international bonus money they traded for?
Keith Law: They signed a few guys today – that’s what the LaRoche/Machado joke was about.

Jesse: How much of a GM job is Baseball ops and how much is it business stuff?
Keith Law: It’s all baseball ops, if you count contracts for players as baseball ops (I do). The only non-baseball responsibilities a GM would have would be on the public relations side, such as talking to corporate sponsors at an offseason event or something.

JR: In a tweet this morning you indicated that the most reasonable criticism of Melvin is that even he admitted the game has passed him by and analytics have changed a bunch in the past 5 years. Do you think the game passed Alderson by while he was still the GM? I know at one time he was seen as being at the forefront of analytics, but it felt like the past few years he was stuck on cruise control while others passed him by.
Keith Law: They weren’t very analytically-minded the last few years, especially when managing the major-league club (much more so in the draft), despite having a real analytics department. I have to assume that came from Sandy.

RyanW: Anything new to report on Cole Tucker after your time in the AFL? Seems like he lacked hard contact this year in AA, is there anymore strength coming is he a 40 raw power type who needs to get to all of his hit tool to be an average regular at SS?
Keith Law: Good athlete who still could grow into a little power, but he’s also very inconsistent at short, especially when throwing.
Keith Law: As in, maybe he doesn’t stay there.

Brian: If Schoop doesn’t rebound from whatever funk plagued him with the Brewers, is Keston Hiura ready to man 2B in 2019? It seems like his bat should be fine, but what about defense?
Keith Law: I think his defense will be adequate, good enough to stay there. I wish I’d seen him hit anything hard last week – it was one groundball after another.

Zac: On a scale of 1-10 how surprised are you that Ausmus got another managing job
Keith Law: Maybe a 2. I figured he’d get it. He went to Dartmouth, he likely interviews well, teams do like to re-hire guys who’ve managed in the majors. O AN HE SEXY.

Andrew: Any books/apps/websites you recommend for meditation?
Keith Law: Fully Present (book) is my go-to.

John Farrell: Isn’t Roberts taking heat for lineup decisions being made by Friedman ?
Keith Law: That’s not how it works … that’s not how any of this works.

Jake: Does Royce Lewis stick at SS long term?
Keith Law: My gut is still no. I got mixed reports from scouts who saw him this year.

Kyle: Is there scientific evidence and support for the dangers of fracking or is it mostly hypothetical at this point?
Keith Law: You can find several papers on this if you search journal papers – on fracking causing earthquakes, for example, or how repeated fracking can contaminate groundwater.

Brian: Hey Keith, love your work. Just wanted to know if you had heard any new industry buzz the Giants next GM. Thanks!
Keith Law: The two names I’ve heard were Jason McLeod of the Cubs and Amiel Sawdaye of the Dbacks, both of whom have roots with the Red Sox, but I have no idea who else is in the process.

Nick: Why do some people think enjoying baseball and liking analytics is mutually exclusive? I enjoy baseball MORE because of the plethora of information available. More data also means my team wins more, which is literally the best thing.
Keith Law: I like to learn things about topics that interest me. I doubt I’m the only one.

Samantha: Any chance Heyward opts out?
Keith Law: Highly doubt it.

Jesse B: Angels still have 3 years and $78 million left on Pujols contract, let that soak in. Assuming Ohtani is going to have to DH next year, what do you do with Pujols at this point? He’s 48, I mean 38, is he just an pinch hitter for 3 years, or do youjust eat the $78 mill and move on?
Keith Law: I would release Pujols. He’s a zero at the plate, he already hit the 3000 hit mark, and he is just burning a roster spot at this point.

Brett: O/U 10 starts for Forrest Whitley in 2019?
Keith Law: In the majors? Over.

Dr. Bob: I think the Dodgers are going to have the most difficult decision of the offseason if Kershaw opts out. A guy moving on the wrong side of 30 who had missed time with injury the last three years and whose velocity has dipped. He will want more than the $30 million and two years left on the contract.
Keith Law: I think you offer to tack on another year or two at a lower salary and see if that solves the problem. He’s not getting 4 and $120 million in this market.

RJS: Follow up on Manny-HOF question. Is he a guy who’d hypothetically be 11th on your list this year, but maybe 9th on your ballot next year after some elections/ballot clearing? Would you vote for the top 10 regardless given the backlog or would you only vote for 7-8 potentially in a given year?
Keith Law: I’ll always vote for the top ten. I don’t like the idea of trying to game the ballot, not least because it’s a good way to outsmart yourself.

Sticky Wicky: The Astros supposedly stealing signs — how much of this is grousing over a really good team, as compared to Houston pushing the envelope on spying compared to the rest of the league?
Keith Law: I’ve heard other rumors about them stealing signs beyond that guy in the camera well. We’ll see if any of those rumors end up confirmed anywhere. I don’t think they’re the only team trying such stuff, though.

Erik: Hey Keith, I just finished “When We Were Orphans” by Kazuo Ishiguro. I couldn’t find your review of it on this site (unless I missed it?). What did you think and how do you think it compares to some of his other works?
Keith Law: I think it’s the only book of his I didn’t review (but I did read it), just because it was kind of meh. Not great, not bad like Unconsoled.

Blake: Random question: Do you like/watch bill maher?
Keith Law: No, and thus no.

Jon: Keith, thoughts on Yusei Kikuchi please? Thank you in advance if answered.
Keith Law: He’ll be on my top 50 free agents post when that goes up after the World Series (assuming he is coming over, which all indications I’ve heard are that he will).

Chris: Keith, I know you favor guys who have actually managed before being hired for MLB mgr gigs, but would managing in the minors be somewhat overvalued since that seems to involve a lot of pursuing organizational development goals for the players and not strict in game tactics/strategy and the like? I admittedly speak from ignorance and am not trying to be a wiseass.
Keith Law: No, I still think that’s valuable – having to set lineups, handle in-game changes, consider tactics, still try to win while also considering usage restrictions, etc.

Jerry: Astros need a catcher in 2019. Marlins are open for business (supposedly). Should the Astros be willing to deal Tucker or Whitley to get the deal done? Any chance the Marlins would be willing to take some combination of Bukauskus, Alvarez, Corbin Martin instead?
Keith Law: I’d consider putting Tucker into that deal, but no way I trade Whitley for Realmuto. The other guys are all distinctly second-tier.

PhillyJake: Re: Archer – he did make the changes. His numbers over his last 30 innings were good. The difference? He stopped shaking off Cervelli.
Keith Law: It’s such a small sample that I don’t want to read too much into it yet.

Nick: Have you seen Arquimedes Gamboa in the AFL? Thoughts?
Keith Law: Yes, borderline non-prospect.

Nate: Besides guacamole, any recommendations for using avocado?
Keith Law: Makes a great salsa for topping fish, pork, even grilled chicken. I’m told it makes a good ice cream but I’ll pass on that.

Andy: Adalberto Mondesi? Real?
Keith Law: He is a real person, yes.

Bob W.: Jim Kaat recently decried the general practice of wheeler-dealer moves at the trade deadlines, using the “rooting for laundry” epithet to describe a team that’s been cobbled together by the GM. Realistically, though, isn’t this the only way small market teams like the Twins, Brewers, Royals, etc. can compete for the postseason?
Keith Law: Yes, and that has existed in baseball since Kaat was playing. I enjoyed Jim’s work for years when he moved into the booth. Watching him turn into this Luddite curmudgeon – he’s attacked me, and my book, specifically, to be completely up front here – has disappointed me in a personal way.

Josh in DC: I’ve been enjoying your book, but there’s one aspect (thus far) that troubles me. You highlight the flaws in the old stats, and make a case for the better ones. But what hasn’t come across (to me) is arguments within the analytical community. There seems to be such consensus (Jack Morris: bad; Scott Rolen: good). Where do you find yourself disagreeing with other analytically minded peers?
Keith Law: Lots of issues. I’ve long argued that Fangraphs’ attempts to put dollar values on players as multiples of their WAR is absurd, since the value of a marginal win will vary by team by year. I think framing numbers are volatile enough that I’d regress them substantially rather than merely adding them to a player’s defensive runs saved. (Framing is real, BTW. I’m not arguing it’s bogus.) I also am probably out of step with the common thinking on delaying prospects to manipulate service time and stave off super two or free agency.

Thomas: You’re on your A game with the trolls today (when aren’t you?) Please keep it coming, it’s making my miserable day much brighter!!!
Keith Law: The great thing about trolls is that they’re not very bright as a species.

William: Just saw Robyn Hitchcock in Chicago! What’s the ethical thing for the Cubs to do with Addison Russell at this point?
Keith Law: Probably trade him for nothing. They don’t need him anyway.

Frank: Has judge exceeded your expectations? I know you mentioned the power would be there, but didn’t expect him to hold a high bb%?
Keith Law: Oh yeah, he would’ve been a top 10 prospect if I’d thought he’d become this kind of hitter.

Jon: Don’t forget your free taco Keith
Keith Law: seriously? are we just not doing phrasing any more?

Tyler: College pitching crop looks weak this year. Any guys currently under the radar that you think could jump into day one conversation?
Keith Law: It’s the worst college pitching crop, for this point in the calendar, that I can remember.

Nick: There was a report yesterday that Harper wants at least 10 years/$350m. Over/under? I say over.
Keith Law: Hm. I’m torn here. I would have said over $300 million, but $350 million makes me pause. I’ll guess under.

John Jacob Astor: New indie book stores are great but if you want a magical experience look at great used bookshops
Keith Law: I do. Many of my favorite indie stores sell new and used (like Changing Hands in Phoenix & Tempe).

Dr. Bob: But Ausmus said that he thinks he needs to try some of these new-fangled stat thingies. Doesn’t that make it all okay?
Keith Law: With all thy getting, get understanding, Brad.

Andy: Whit Merrifield is…*exactly* the sort of guy you have to trade, right? Like, the dictionary definition of same?
Keith Law: Yes, like, yesterday.

Joe: Any thoughts on what to expect from Margot going forward? Anything positive this season? Lots of Padre fans seem down on him but he’s still young.
Keith Law: I’m still expecting an above-average regular. Very young, can play the hell out of CF, needs more strength.

Nuggets & Mac ‘n Cheese: You seem to be raising a healthy, curious eater. Any tips for someone with 3-year-old twins who don’t want to eat anything but waffles and PB&J?
Keith Law: Exposure. My daughter was welcome to try anything I ate, anywhere we went, and I took her to a lot of different restaurants when she was as young as 4-5. She didn’t love vegetables and still doesn’t, but she’ll eat a lot of other things (the child loves mushrooms, so mushrooms we will eat, and often) and she will truly try anything at this point.

VVM: There have been varying opinions on VIctor Victor Mesa. Have seen Almora, Robles and Trammell comps. Would love to hear your 2 cents, thanks!
Keith Law: Below all three of those guys. I hear a lot of “extra outfielder” from scouts.

BG: Any plans to post any of your recipes? I was able to impress my then girlfriend (and now wife!) with your roasted red pepper pesto way back in ’08.
Keith Law: I wing it so often at this point that I’d have to slow down and think about what I’m making to turn it into a recipe. I often just buy ingredients and roll with it.

Jared: As a Brewer fan, it was painfully frustrating to listen to the national media. Why do they not even try to understand analytics or explain them to the common fans?
Keith Law: Mute button is your friend.

Jordan: What have you thought of Amed Rosario’s defense at SS so far? Should Mets try Gimenez there when he comes up and move Rosario to 3B or CF?
Keith Law: I think Rosario is fine at short and will end up plus. Gimenez is a great defensive shortstop with no impact with the bat.

Matt: Corbin Burnes has fallen into that prospect coverage no man’s land where he’s no longer rookie eligible, but also isn’t in his long-term future role. I know you were a fan of his last, and his stuff looked electric when I watched him in the playoffs. Do you think he can still be a SP2?
Keith Law: I 100% do. Brewers could have a pretty good rotation next year with Chacin, Burnes, Woodruff, Anderson.

Gob: Yordan Alvarez is “second-tier”?
Keith Law: Yes. Or third-tier.

Andy: On the Mondesi response – it’s your chat, do what you want, but I was trying to introduce a question without being pandering or you-hate-my-team-baiting. I really am curious to see if (and how) your perspective on him has changed now that he appears to have translated some tools to performance. If he can’t develop a feel for pitching, obviously there’s a hard cap on his upside, but this year was still welcome as a fan.
Keith Law: I needed more from you to answer it – I truly didn’t know what you were asking. He has tools, as you said – real speed, good bat-to-ball skill, hard contact (although I’m still very skeptical of the power, which may just be the MLB ball). But he walks once per solstice, and his approach was stunted by lost time and an organizational decision to have him work on bunting more and thus working the count less. It’s going to take a lot of work on his part to gain some semblance of strike zone knowledge to be more than a better Escobar.

AGirlHasNoName: I live in a country that sends military to stop poor people, where my leader incites violence against the media, calls women he paid to have sex horseface, and draws big crowds of sycophants on the weekly. What brand of whiskey helps most to forget?
Keith Law: Feels like something Irish would be appropriate. Pull up a chair, I’ll pour you two fingers of Teeling.

Joe: Hi Keith. Padres Twitter has been driven by two storylines this fall; trading prospect depth for A TOR arm, and deciding who to keep between Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes. Personally I think they should hold onto depthbefore trading anybody, and I don’t buy into Renfroe or Reyes as future pieces. What say you?
Keith Law: I agree with you on both.

Ian: Franklin Barreto strikes out a lot, but so did Matt Chapman. What’s the difference between the two? And if you’re the A’s do you keep Lowrie or hand the job to Barreto?
Keith Law: Chapman has real power and is an elite defender. Barreto doesn’t have much power and isn’t an elite defender.

Matt: Judd Fabian and Corey Acton are graduating in December of their senior year in high school to enroll early at Florida so they can play college ball. Do you see more kids doing that in the future?
Keith Law: I hate when players do this and have always discouraged players or parents when I’m asked my opinion on this.

John: I just want to say Thank you for calling out those who try to employ “whataboutism” as a rhetorical device. Life’s too short to suffer these people’s “arguments.”
Keith Law: It’s become increasingly popular these days too.

AES: Re: Machado, can we agree he seems to be a dirty player, but whatever he does between the lines is about 8 tiers better than those who hurt people outside them?
Keith Law: Eh, I’m not sure I love that comparison. He’s done some shady stuff on the field this postseason. He’s also ultracompetitive, which is something you do want as a GM or manager.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week’s chat. Thank you all so much for your questions, as always. If I chat next week, it’ll be Wednesday rather than Thursday, so please keep an eye out for an announcement. Enjoy the last weekend of regular baseball for 2018!

Keith Law: Try to click with whatcha got. Klawchat.

Devon: As a Braves fan, I was thinking recently about the weirdest trade I can remember and it always comes back to the Alex Wood for Hector Olivera fiasco. That trade was weird at the time and it’s aged poorly. Did it make any sense to you? What’s a trade you can think of that you read and said “Huh?”
Keith Law: That’s one of the weirdest, worst ones I can think of – Atlanta’s international guys loved Olivera as a free agent, and somehow that became the justification to trade for the guy even after he’d played a little in pro ball and people realized he wasn’t very good. And then they overestimated the odds of Wood getting hurt (which he did, but only after providing a lot of value). Of course, Coppolella was on the good end of the most lopsided deal I can remember in recent years – the Shelby Miller heist.

Gamecocks: You have mentioned in the past that you think Clarke Schmidt is a reliever. Have you heard or seen anything recently that changes your mind?
Keith Law: On the contrary, he made all of two appearances this year before getting hurt again. And it’s a high-risk delivery. I think he’s more likely to be a reliever than I did two years ago, not less.

Nate: Now that each player has a full season at the MLB level, how do you project Albies, Swanson, and Camargo? All average to slightly above? Major concerns?
Keith Law: Albies has the upside of a star, but he got so homer-happy after the hot start that he nuked his own value. He has to become more disciplined first, and then some power will arise as a natural result. Swanson average regular. Camargo somewhere around there too, maybe a shade below. He’s another guy who’s shown unexpected power thanks to the MLB ball, after showing none in the minors.

Dr. Bob: Though the Yanks won 100 games, did Aaron Boone’s lack of experience show in his bullpen usage this series? Or is that unfair?
Keith Law: I think it’s quite fair – and yes, he won 100 games, but he inherited a team that won 91, and the AL was more stratified this year so I don’t think his team faced as difficult a schedule.

Stats Novice: I saw on Twitter you mentioned Bogaerts being 2-25 against Severino is just randomness, and too small of a sample to be considered meaningful data. At what point, if ever, does data like that become meaningful? Is it still possible for a hitter to perform better/worse against a certain pitcher if the sample size is long enough?
Keith Law: By the time such a sample was meaningful, so much time would have elapsed that the players would have changed to the point that the early data have lost their utility.

Nate: Which of these 5 is in the Braves rotation at the end of next season (barring injury of course): Folty, Tehran, Gausman, Newk, Touki, Wright, Gohara, Fried, Wilson, other?
Keith Law: Folty, Gausman, Touki are the three I feel most confident in. Wilson could be back by year-end but I feel like they won’t rush him next spring. I still very much believe in Fried as a starter too.

de la: Hi, thanks as always. Which young starters would be best to build around: Borucki, BKeller, Peralta, DRodriguez or Suarez?
Keith Law: I don’t have any of those guys as long-term average starters. I’m sure one will be, because baseball, but as a portfolio of guys they’re all kind of in that back-end starter bucket. Borucki intrigues me the most.

Everyone: Obligatory Victor Mesa question: Is he (and his brother) worth the hype?
Keith Law: I have heard that they are less than the hype – great workout guys, maybe not such great players. I didn’t see their workout in Miami as it was closed to anyone but team personnel.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Reading post season updates to the Phillies farm and I don’t like what I see. Obviously they haven’t hit on any of their first round picks, could you explain why you think this is? Bad luck? Bad scouting? Bad philosophy? Thanks!
Keith Law: Their philosophy on first-round picks isn’t working out. They’ve done better with some later picks, and international continues to provide depth and length to the system. But they need a change of strategy for the first pick after three straight that appear not to have worked (not counting Bohm).

TF Fredrik: What is your best guess as to where pitching will go in ten years? I would assume that front offices have been running the numbers on every conceivable iteration of filling 9 innings that we could think of. With Rays leading the charge, has the dam broken? What would be best combination of filling innings, keeping pitchers happy, avoiding injuries, & getting highest level of performance?
Keith Law: I think using of pitchers for multiple innings with one to three days off between outings will become increasingly common as a way to balance effectiveness and health.

Bill: Phillies fans should probably be concerned about Sixto’s abrupt removal from the AFL roster right?
Keith Law: Guy hasn’t stayed healthy and apparently his conditioning isn’t so great right now. It’s a concern, yes. I haven’t heard that this is serious, though.

Tom: I was happy to see that the Mets were interviewing Chaim Bloom and considering Mike Chernoff. Guys from front offices that win while not spending money would seem to fit the Wilpon’s vision. Do you think either would be a good choice?
Keith Law: I do. Granted, I’m not sure Mets fans should resign themselves to life as a small-market team…

Eric: The Twins hiring David Ross would be __________.
Keith Law: Repeating a mistake.

PhillyJake: Did you register to vote?
Keith Law: Yes. I’ll be voting pro-science right down the line.

Adam: Does a Byron Buxton for Manuel Margot challenge trade make sense for the Twins and Padres, or does one team have to give up more than the other?
Keith Law: Bad deal for the Twins.

Ryan: braves sign harper?
Keith Law: Extremely unlikely.

Adam: Considering the sheer volume of players the Padres signed from the 2016 J2 class, how would you rate the results/progress from that group so far?
Keith Law: Excellent. Seems like every two months we hear about another guy popping from that class.

mike: what was the point of toronto sending Vlad Jr to Arizona?? He’s killing it as expected
Keith Law: Gotta work (snicker) on his (chortle) defense (GUFFAW).

Ben: Did I catch an Oasis quote in the opening line? What brought out such an old lyric (from my favorite band)?
Keith Law: I’ve been playing that song pretty much every day on the guitar.

Tim: Bone Spurs removed for Nick Senzel. Any reason to fret on this kind of surgery/injury for a position player? Thanks.
Keith Law: No, unless they find the spurs damaged the UCL (I don’t think they did).

Adam: If Manny Machado is the ceiling of Fernando Tatis Jr, is Trevor Story the realistic outcome?
Keith Law: I’d be floored if Tatis struck out with that frequency.

Nick: Who are some names I should I be excited to hear for the Mets GM search? Who are some names I should roll my eyes at that they’ll likely end up with?
Keith Law: The Mets need to hire someone who is comfortable with analytics. That can be someone of just about any age. It would not be, say, Ned Colletti. (Rinse and repeat for Baltimore.)

Jeff: Keith, thanks for your insight and wisdom. Regarding the Dodgers, if money is not a factor, would you consider signing Machado and trying to shuffle Seager or Turner to make room in the infield? What other priorities would you have in the offseason regardless of the playoff outcome?
Keith Law: I’ll answer with a question: What is Seager capable of doing after TJ? Is his arm affected at all, so that shortstop is no longer feasible? That may determine the correct strategy more than anything about Machado per se

A big dumb idiot: How popular would this chat be if your dad was a plumber from Poughkeepsie?
Keith Law: Good question. My dad was actually an electrical engineer from the Bronx, which I don’t know if it’s better or worse.

Adam: Are HS corner only bats undervalued in the draft?
Keith Law: Not in my opinion. Their floor is essentially zero and their failure rate is pretty high. I would not include HS 3B in that group, though – third base is a skill position, much more than the other three corner spots, and a HS player who can play third should be grouped with second basemen.

Hernando: In three years what do you envision from the following: Jarred Kelenic, Amed Rosario, Andres Giminez, David Peterson?
Keith Law: Star, above-average regular to star, regular, mid-rotation starter. I hate the Mets, by the way.

Guest: If you were Brian Cashman, would you: a) sign Manny Machado and move Andujar to the outfield or b) sign Bryce Harper and live with Andujar’s bad defence at 3rd?
Keith Law: If they want to sign Machado, Andujar isn’t a factor. That’s a four- to six-win upgrade at third. You sign Manny and figure the rest out later.

Asking4aFriend: Which prospects are you excited to see in the AFL?
Keith Law: All of them is a little facile .. but it’s my favorite trip of the year. Nate Pearson is one. Luis Robert is another. Lucius Fox. Hudson Potts. Forrest Whitley, of course. Taylor Trammell. Nico Hoerner, Jahmai Jones as a 2b. Jazz Chisholm. Juan Pablo Martinez. And there’s this big guy from the Jays who can rake…

Mike: Is there any reason to believe Gary Sanchez will ever become a league-average defensive catcher? It seems that his defensive struggles are getting worse: I’ve never seen a major league catcher react so poorly in trying to receivable “catchable” pitches.
Keith Law: He’s looked bad, although I feel like he catches a lot of guys who throw really hard with a lot of spin on everything. We’ve seen a lot of catchers get better once in the majors, so I hate to rule it out, but I do feel a bit like he’s regressing from where he was as a rookie or even in double-A when he finally seemed to have taken the defensive side of his game seriously.

Dr. Bob: Is the key for deciding starter/reliever the number of pitches he can command? 1 or 2 pitches = reliever? 3 or more pitches = starter?
Keith Law: Very few ML starters have only 2 average or better pitches. If you don’t have a change or split, you’re going to have a real platoon issue. If you don’t have a breaking ball, you may have a lot of trouble with same-side hitters.

AES: Would you start Price, or move him into a fireman’s role? 10 starts is tiny, but there are other viable options. . .
Keith Law: I don’t think his postseason data tell us anything, but I do worry that he’s not fully healthy.

Ed: If you’re the Cubs, do you pick up Hamels’ option for next year?
Keith Law: Absolutely – or, before that, I offer him something like 2/$35 million instead.

All Mets Fans: Do you think the Wilpons are financially capable of giving out a contract to Machado or Harper?
Keith Law: Whether or not they’re capable, they ain’t willing.

JL: Hi Keith, thanks for the chats. Apologies if this is too personal or you’ve covered this before. But my wife and I have an 11 month old and due to how difficult the pregnancy was on her with some health issues, he will likely be our only child and we are ok with this. Is there any unique advice you can share about having only one child? We try to focus on all of the positives of it! Thanks!
Keith Law: All the stuff we learned or heard about raising an only child turned out to be not that useful. I don’t think we ever did anything different because she was our only one. It was easier for us that she never wanted a sibling, too.

Steve: What did you see as the biggest change in Michael King? What would his upside be given 2018 success?
Keith Law: Addressed a few weeks ago in this column. Stat line is very misleading.

Taylor: Alek Thomas seems like a potential plus hit, plus defense, average power center fielder. What do you think of his potential? Is he a future star? Thank you!
Keith Law: Potential future star, yes. Thought he had first-round ability in the draft but had the downside of playing in the cold against weak competition.

Dana: If the Yanks sign Machado, do you think Andujar has the ability to become an OK first baseman?
Keith Law: Probably, if they’re willing to move on from Bird at that spot. But see above – the presence of Andujar shouldn’t affect their choice on Machado.

Taylor: Lots of rumors in the second half of Severino tipping his pitches…again now after his most recent start. As a scout, how difficult is it to notice when someone is tipping their pitches and do you think this actually happens often or is just a convenient excuse?
Keith Law: Occasionally true, usually an excuse. Here I think it’s an excuse. His command has been noticeably off in the second half.

addoeh: I was reading this book called Smart Baseball (the author’s name eludes me right now) and there were sections about high-spin fastballs and average spin rate fastballs. But what about the effect of below average spin rate fastballs? Is the effect of spin rate linear based on the spin rate or is it more of a curve?
Keith Law: More of a curve. Way worse to have average spin. Better to be near the extremes of the range.

Nate: Do you see Weigel ever factoring into the Braves plans, or did the lost time due to injury result in him being passed by too many other arms?
Keith Law: Oh I think he sees the majors next year. He apparently hit 99 in instructs last month. Just not sure how much he’ll be able to pitch in 2019, but he’s a future rotation piece too.

Jax: Conforto had a great ending to the season. You think he’s primed to have a career year in 2019?
Keith Law: Yes, strictly because I think he’s healthy, and he would have had that season this year had he been so.

Mike: When will America realize that the only tangible form of voter fraud going on is voter suppression, which is primarily perpetrated by Republicans against people of color?
Keith Law: I would say 30% or more of American voters are completely fine with voter suppression. By the way, if you live in Georgia and haven’t called the State House and your state rep and senator to scream about Brian Kemp abusing his power to try to suppress votes for his opponent, you should be doing so today.

Jennyfer: Isn’t there a psychological component to knowing that you’ve had great success against a certain pitcher or have failed miserably against them? That’s not to say you can’t have success, but sometimes I feel like you ignore the mental aspect of the game because it’s not quantifiable across a broad spectrum.
Keith Law: If it exists it has been either too small to measure or too hard to detect in the tiny samples with which we have to work. The result in either case is that it shouldn’t affect our decision-making.
Keith Law: Also, I tend to think that players who are that vulnerable wash out before they reach the majors. The pressure on these guys to reach the top of the pyramid is already tremendous.

Archie: If you were hired to run the Giants, would you consider pursuing Goldy?
Keith Law: No. I don’t think they have the prospects for it, and that roster needs to be turned over, not propped up like Weekend at Posey’s.

Bryce Harper: Should the Nationals sign me for $300M over 8 with an opt-out for me or sign Corbin and a 2B or C instead?
Keith Law: Probably better to do the latter, as much as I believe in Harper returning to stardom. I also think Robles is a stud, and they’d extract more value from their money by playing him and Soto every day, then spending the way you suggested.

Billy: What do you think of the Dbacks potential firesale? To me, I think it’s absolutely necessary. What say you?
Keith Law: Same.

Jim Nantz: Any thoughts on candidates for the next Rangers job? I remember you were high on Cora for a few years and that’s obviously worked out well. Who’s the next guy on your list?
Keith Law: I saw Jayce Tingler’s name come up in some local media coverage and I think he’d be excellent.

addoeh: If Vlad Gurrero Jr’s dad were an undertaker from Uusikaupunki, would he still be a top-10 prospect?
Keith Law: He’d be #1 on my best prospects in pesäpallo rankings.

Rick C: I think you sell Camargo short. Sure, the ball is probably helping him, but he’s also gotten bigger and stronger, and improved his approach at the plate.
Keith Law: Bigger and stronger I buy. I don’t think his approach is actually that good.

Cooper: The Dbacks may have four first round picks and 5 of the top 50 in this upcoming draft. Is this a solid enough draft that Dbacks fans should get really excited about this potential haul?
Keith Law: It’s not a good draft but five of the top 50 is still good enough to make some noise.

Chris: Thinking of heading down to the AFL in a week or two for the first time. What are a couple things to do nearby?
Keith Law: Other than eating? I didn’t do a ton of touristy stuff while living there but the Zoo and Botanical Gardens are both great, the Science Museum is solid, and there’s a lot of good hiking in the metro area.

Steven: Do you feel vindicated at all by Alex Cora’s success? I remember you being a bit annoyed that he hadn’t been given a chance to manage before this.
Keith Law: More relieved to see him get the chance, because I knew he’d do well and respect him tremendously, and because I think it may further open the door for people of color to get legitimate interviews and chances to manage.

Kevin: Give us a conspiracy theory you give the best chance of being true. Use as loose of a definition for conspiracy theory as you need.
Keith Law: MLB knew the ball was juiced.

Steve: Does Loaisiga have a shot to be full time rotation guy next season? Showed flashes in few appearances.
Keith Law: If healthy, which he has almost never been for a full season.

Brian: Have you watched Kyler Murray at all on a football field? Even if you aren’t a fan of the sport his athleticism on the field is jaw dropping. He runs like he has a turbo button.
Keith Law: I’ve seen highlights of him running. I also think he looks kind of small even among college players.

Steve: Blake Snell is the only pitcher in history with 20+ wins, an ERA -2.00 and ave 11+ Ks in a season. Not Johnson, Grove, Koufax etc How can he not win the Cy Young?
Keith Law: Strikeouts are at an all-time high in the game right now. That’s really a bad comparison.

Jack: I know you said last year that the Braves should trade Ender (rightfully, in my opinion) and caught a lot of slack for it. Should the Braves explore that option this summer and what kind of return could they expect?
Keith Law: Yes, I still think so, but the return might be half what it would have been last winter. With Acuna there and Pache’s glove already major-league ready, trading Inciarte still makes sense. He’s a starter for a lot of teams and underpaid, so you might get two decent prospects for him.

Mike: Keith, I like the “pro-science-down-the-line” voting philosophy. Do you know if there is a site that tracks candidates based on their views on science-related issues, or are there a few “litmus test” issues you use to evaluate candidates?
Keith Law: 314action.org is a good resource. Climate change and evolution (teaching it in schools, without fantasies alongside them) are my two main tests – you’ll usually find a quick split with those two alone.

Chris: Some people have floated the narrative that Scott Boras is pissed at the Cubs for manipulating Kris Bryant’s service time by not promoting him until May in 2015 and as a result he would not only dissuade Bryant from signing a long-term contract before he hits free agency, but steer him away from the Cubs once he does. How stupid is that claim? Money talks, no?
Keith Law: It’s more likely that Bryant is still pissed than Boras is. Boras might advise his client not to take a deal, but if the client says “take it,” then they will.

Jake: Any interest in the Giants job? You could love the a very progressive city and run a team with a massive payroll, but has been slapped in the face recently due to their reliance on overpaid, older players. Seems like it could be a solid fix-it-up project.
Keith Law: I’m not on any team’s longlist, but that is a very appealing job for a qualified candidate, for the reasons you said, a longstanding analytics presence, some very good longtime scouts, and an unbelievable local food and coffee scene within walking distance of the ballpark.

Dusty: Any thoughts you have on Wander Javier coming into the 2019 season? Can he shoot his way back into the top 100?
Keith Law: He wasn’t in my top 100 before so that’s a no.

James: If pitcher vs hitter data is not useful on a 1 to 1 basis (1 hitter vs 1 specific pitcher), do you think we’ll get to the point where a pitcher can be grouped into a bucket (power pitcher, command pitcher) and a hitter’s splits against that TYPE of pitcher will be useful? For example, hitter X struggles against hard thrower with a slider, but is better against a hard thrower with a curveball? Is there value to extract from that? Presumably teams are already doing it?
Keith Law: We already do that. That’s what platoon split data are.

Diego: Any thoughts on why LaCava and Cherington would decline to interview for Mets GM job?
Keith Law: Cherington declined, as did Levine. I don’t know if Lacava declined or wasn’t asked. I think the industry impression of that job is negative – that you’re being asked to win while your hands are tied by a low payroll and meddlesome ownership.

Joules: Why would Machado insist on SS suddenly? Top 2 3B in baseball, pretty rough at SS. Is this possibly coming from his agent?
Keith Law: Maybe, but also, I wonder if this is just to open up his market further.

PD: Do you know the typical thresholds for when the P Value becomes significant for batter versus pitcher match ups? It’s dependent upon the current results wouldn’t a .050 BA over 50 or 100 PA for example be enough to say that a certain batter does not bat as well against a pitcher has he would on average?
Keith Law: It’s never. The best answer is never. I’m amazed by how often people want to come up with some number where the data are meaningful. If a batter faced the same pitcher every day for a year, maybe we could talk.

Dr. Bob: When my boys played in Little League, I noticed boys who were better than the others not be better a couple of years later. Some develop earlier than others. That must make scouting high school players tough. Some may have already peaked.
Keith Law: It’s why I ignore any list that pretends to rank high school prospects for any draft beyond the current cycle. Remember how Drew Ward was supposed to be the best player in his class? He ended up a bad pick in the third round. He was 16 as a high school freshman and huge for his age. When the other players caught up physically it turned out that had been his only advantage.

jimmyb: I know you have nothing to do with the selection of ads on the Baseball Tonight podcast, but do you find it odd (or perhaps, concerning) that ESPN is running ads for Juul, given the issues associated with specifically targeting minors?
Keith Law: I don’t actually know what that is.

Fred: Do Execs ever ask you your opinions on prospects in other orgs?
Keith Law: Of course. Now, whether they take those opinions seriously is another question…

JR: You think we get a WS rematch? I think we do.
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s my prediction. Dodgers in 6, Astros in 6. I think I’d rather see Boston get there from the AL for a different mix of players (especially getting Mookie Betts on TV all those games), and of course Milwaukee making it for the second time in franchise history (first in 35 years) would be an amazing story, but I don’t think that happens.

Chris: On a Prospects Live podcast, you were singled out as someone who was down on Andres Gimenez hitting ability because you hadn’t seen him in a while. Has he improved or is he still not an impact bat?
Keith Law: Sounds like a mistake. I just saw him this summer.

andy: If the Rockies make an earnest attempt to extend Arenado and he says no and chooses to enter the year without an extension in place, what would you do were you in Bridich’s shoes? Would you trade him or ‘go for it’ with him on an expiring deal, knowing you might end up losing him for just a comp pick?
Keith Law: No, I’d trade him. You’re talking about a team that barely made the playoffs this year – the odds of them doing so again aren’t so high that I’d value retaining him knowing we might only get that draft pick.

Steve: I realize “fairness” isn’t exactly the best word, so I’ll try this instead. Do you think the MLB postseason offers the best possible outcomes? So many games played for a potential one and done or blip over a 5 game series seems, well, unfair, especially given that the performance is used as a sign of success. Do you think there’s a may to make the postseason more meritocratic?
Keith Law: I don’t, nor do I think that’s the point. We can argue over who’s the best team after the regular season. The postseason is just a tournament for a trophy. It’ll never determine who’s best – it determines who gets the trophy. I think most fans are good with this split, as am I.

Michael K : Hi Keith. I’m a huge fan of the Giants. I haven’t heard any real rumors of who they are talking to regarding their open GM/Head of Baseball ops. Have you?
Keith Law: Not many. One name I did hear was Jason McLeod of the Cubs, who’d be excellent and has the background from working there and in Boston, in scouting and player development for two orgs with strong analytics departments. I haven’t checked to see if there’s anything to it, but he’s the right prototype for the Giants, who have been and should commit to remaining a strong scouting organization.

Deke: Have you heard of CBD gummies? They’re apparently gaining in popularity as a knockoff anxiety helper. Any opinion?
Keith Law: Heard of, there’s a little evidence that they work (it’s extremely hard to research anything related to marijuana because we live in Gilead), but I haven’t tried them.

Matt: A bit of a random question here, but do older pitchers tend to decline gradually or fall off cliffs without warning? The impetus for the question is Justin Verlander, who’s pitching as well as he ever has, but is nearly 36. I can’t help but continually worry that the next start is going to be the one where the wheels come off. Is this rational?
Keith Law: It’s rational, but also a bit irrational in that you should appreciate what he is right now in the present. We all go into that great good night eventually.

Ron: Keith- The talk going around that the Twins are looking at Ross and DeRosa just has to be that, right? I mean come on. Some younger guy with some experience and an analytical approach and rapport with the young players is needed. I hope Falvey and Levine are thinking the latter and not the former. Geeesh!
Keith Law: Again, still don’t understand the fixation with guys who’ve never managed. You have at least 120 guys managing in full-season minor leagues every year. Not one of them is qualified to even interview ahead of two guys who talk real good but have never so much as run a coat check stand?

Chuck: What is the Orioles problem with developing pitchers?
Keith Law: They have a poor track record of keeping them healthy. Getting at the root cause of that would require knowledge and access I do not have, but if I were GM there it would be my first priority, because they have good arms on the way again.

Matthew: You mentioned that Garrett Hampson might not have enough power to be an MLB regular. Do you see Myles Straw in the same light?
Keith Law: I do.

andy: How close is Brendan Rodgers to being ready? Do you think he could take DJ Lemahieu’s job starting next year?
Keith Law: I do.

Skippy : Cardinals just announced bringing Wainwright back for 2019 and Mo’s statement seems to indicate it will be pretty heavy incentive laden. Seems like a solid move? When he came back and said he actually felt healthy his k/9 and BB/9 were great. Cardinals probably didn’t *need* to bring him back but a small risk type scenario?
Keith Law: Yeah, I’m good with that. Low money, I presume, good for the clubhouse, good for the fans, nice tip of the cap to a player who’s been with the org since his debut.

Harvey: Voter fraud goes both ways. The motor voter laws in CA led to thousands of illegals being registered to vote when they picked up their drivers licenses. Both parties try to cheat their way to victory.
Keith Law: That’s not true. Also, can you get the FOH with that bothsidesism? Right now, the Republican candidate for Governor in Georgia is personally obstructing over 50,000 new voter registrations to improve his odds of winning. That is the problem TODAY. Do not give me your fetid bullshit about something that might have happened a year ago somewhere else. We solve today’s problem today. You see another problem? Good. Put it on the fucking list.

David: Hi Keith, thanks for the chats! Is Muncy’s bat worth moving Bellinger (and his strong defense) off of first to play center? Max seems adequate over there, but just curious your thoughts on the trade-offs.
Keith Law: No. I’m betting the under on Muncy repeating this next year.

DraftNut: Would draft pick trading help prevent tanking or encourage it?
Keith Law: I think it’ll help prevent it.

Lyle: The biggest voter suppression of all is closed primaries. If the parties want to have closed primaries, they should pay for them themselves. Otherwise, taxpaying voters should be allowed to vote.
Keith Law: I agree with that.

Mikey: Any chance Jake Locker could come back and play or has it been too long?
Keith Law: He has expressed zero interest in returning to baseball.

Brett: What are your thoughts on Corbin Burnes’s future with the Brewers? Does he end up as a starter next year? Can he be a No. 2 guy in their rotation? Thanks, Keith!
Keith Law: Yes to both questions.

Jd: I saw on deadspin that nobody looked good (including the heckler) in the Osuna incident. It feels fair game to rip a guy for beating his wife but are their limits other than the obvious about using bad language at the ballpark?
Keith Law: I don’t see why that’s not fair game and agree on the language used (you can easily be surrounded by kids there).

Re: Trading Ender: I understand the reasoning, but it seems hard to make the case if they don’t have a valid replacement. Say they don’t resign Markakis or anyone in FA. Then in the summer Pache is ready. I would much rather have an OF of Acuña, Pache, Ender than Acuña, Pache, Preston Tucker/Duvall. It only makes sense to me if they for sure have a For sure everyday LF/RF
Keith Law: I feel good about Anthopoulos finding a short-term replacement for Markakis.

Boa T.: I take it you don’t respect those that believe in God when you refer to it as “fantasies”
Keith Law: I referred to creationism and intelligent design as fantasies, because they are. We know that evolution happened and continues to happen, because we see it, and we are surrounded by evidence supporting it. You can “take it” however you want, but you’re just being an idiot here.

Pei: What are your thoughts on the analyses that suggest framing is worth as much as 20 runs above/below average in a single season, and therefore much more valuable of a skill than blocking/throwing? (obviously still nebulous about game calling)
Keith Law: Seems entirely valid, although I dislike that this is seen as a skill, and not stealing strikes from incompetent or merely incapable umpires.

Brett: Melania Trump recently said that she is the “most bullied person in the world.” [cleans spit-out coffee of desk]. Thoughts on who would be number 2?
Keith Law: How many people referred to her predecessor as FLOTUS as a man, or a simian, or some other animal on a regular basis?

Grover: juul is an e-cigarette I belive
Keith Law: Thank you. I wouldn’t read an ad for that, at least.

Grover: Thoughts on the Dodgers front office legal troubles?
Keith Law: I don’t know anything more than you guys do from the SI report and now the Daily Beast report on them failing to report a sexual assault allegation to MLB, but … not great, Bob.

Grover: If a team owner asked to meet with you to discuss a front office position, and asked to meet at an Olive Garden, do you immediately remove your name from consideration?
Keith Law: That’s a huge red flag for me.

John: Do you think it would help with getting rid of mascots and offensive names if writers would stop using them and instead defer to the city? Seems like outta sight outta mind might help those that can’t grasp institutional racism…
Keith Law: Maybe. Then again, I haven’t referred to the team in Cleveland by name in over a decade, and it hasn’t made a bit of difference.

Brady: You’ve given credit to a few of the ‘no-experience’ managers noting they had a strong support system from the front office and analytics team. Do you think some of these front offices want a manager that they can control, ie) have a say in making lineups, who plays where, how to use the bullpen, etc.? I’m not saying that’s right, but is it easier to accomplish that with someone who’s not had control over all the on-field decision making before?
Keith Law: Why not both? Why not hire someone with the experience to make better battlefield decisions and who’s also happy to work with R&D before and between games?

Jackie: You want voter suppression? 3 million Puerto Ricans get zero senators, 35 million Californians get two senators, and 1.5 million Dakotans get four senators. That’s how you get Kavanaughed.
Keith Law: And 700,000 residents of Washington DC, almost half of them African-American, get zero voting representation in Congress. And I think we know why.

Pat D: My sister just gave birth to her fourth child, second son. He has an older brother who is not quite 2. When should I start getting them to play baseball?
Keith Law: You haven’t started yet?

DEF: Board game question for you: Our family loves to play games, but we’re having a hard time coming up with a game that the entire family can play: my 10 year-old is handling fairly complex games pretty easily, but my 7 year old is developmentally delayed – he’s tired of snakes and ladders and candyland and the like. Got any recommendations for something with a little bit of depth that is also pretty simple/straightforward?
Keith Law: More randomness tends to mean more skill levels can play. I don’t know where your 7-year-old might fall on the skill scale, but games I call low complexity or ‘gateway’ games might be perfect – Ticket to Ride is one that’s easy to learn, has some light strategy, but can still entertain adults and older kids.

Nelson: Do you drink flavored seltzer? And if so, are you worried about the report that came out on Lacroix and some of the ingredients it contains?
Keith Law: I don’t. I drink plain sparkling water. The report and lawsuit are basically just chemophobia in a nice suit, though.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I’m heading to Arizona next week and will be at games Monday through Friday, so I don’t know when the next chat will be, but I do expect to have at least two updates while I’m there for ESPN+ subscribers. Thank you all as always for reading and for all of your questions!

Keith Law: I’m at the wrong end of the looking glass. It’s Klawchat.

Patrick: Keith, anything specific you watch for when playoff time comes around?
Keith Law: Nope, I just watch the games for themselves.

Andy: Will the current trend of bullpening, especially in the playoffs, kill the lower to mid tier starting pitching market? Sure, he’ll be useful during the season, but if I’m not starting a Chase Anderson or Mike Fiers in the playoffs, is that worth 6 or 7 million a year?
Keith Law: Yeah, they’re still worth quite a bit more than that for the value they can provide over 160+ innings. If bullpenning affects that market it’ll be through arbitration, which is still substantially driven by the dumbest stats.

Dr. Bob: At the end of the Periscope chat yesterday, a chatter suggested Led Zeppelin’s “Over the Hills and Far Away.” Have you learned that one? As difficult as it sounds, it is remarkably simple. If you don’t know it, there are a couple of really good YouTube videos showing it.
Keith Law: I mentioned that song in my latest newsletter as my standard warmup – the opening to that is a great way to loosen up your fret hand & fingers before playing.

Moe Mentum: Who’s the odd man out in the Phillies infield next season if they land Machado?
Keith Law: I would think Franco.

Mike: “Openers” may be a clever was of describing this new approach, but it does little to enhance the fan experience. (It does, however, add another half-hour or so of air time for advertisers)
Keith Law: I would agree with that. What’s good for the team isn’t necessarily good for the product’s aesthetics.

Dan: Jomar Reyes had a good finish to 2018. Still a rising prospect for O’s?
Keith Law: No, that ship has probably sailed.

Nick: What is your opinion of Milwaukee going with a bullpen game in Game 1 of the NLDS? I know they’re trying to mitigate a weakness (starting pitching), but aren’t they running the risk of unnecessarily blowing out their bullpen? Why not throw a starter and just keep them on a short leash if they wind up in trouble?
Keith Law: Tend to agree with that, although their bullpen is so damn strong maybe it’s less of a concern?

Rob: Tony Santillan had a nice season for the Reds in the minor leagues this year. Do you believe that he is a top 100 prospect? Do you think that he could be more then a back of the rotation type of starter? Thank you for the chats.
Keith Law: Too much reliever risk to be a top 100 guy.

squeeze bunt: Is hitting suppressed in playoff baseball? Do teams put together more detailed plans to attack hitters with all their resources focused on one lineup?
Keith Law: Pitching tends to be better in October – you don’t see fifth starters or 8th relievers.

Trevor: Is there any precedence of the MLBPA winning a grievance that allowed a player from the Rule 4 Draft to become a FA like Stewart / Boras filed for?
Keith Law: Yes, Barrett Loux.

Gene: Keith, where do the Orioles go next? I was more a Showalter supported than a Duquette supporter, but now they are both gone and there doesn’t appear to be much left to rebuild around.
Keith Law: I’m very curious to see where they go; I thought Showalter had to go, but Duquette had to do that job with one hand tied behind his back, and there was a credible argument that he should stick around to get to fully execute his vision with a manager of his choice who wouldn’t work at cross purposes to his own. I can certainly think of a few names of GM candidates who’d be great fits.

squeeze bunt: Saw an interesting question on Twitter the other day, and thought you might have a good answer. Has there been a book that changed your opinion on something? I think it was implied that this was relating to political things, but answer however you please.
Keith Law: Tons. That’s one of the great pleasures of reading – it opens your mind.

Shaun: Is the AL group of playoff teams as good top to bottom as any recently? The Red Sox won 108 games and could arguably be an underdog in a series against any of the other 3 teams.
Keith Law: It does seem exceptionally strong, at the expense of any decent playoff races this year.

Darren: There have been big arguments among people I know regarding the 1 inning starters. I see the logical and understand why teams like Oakland and TB would attempt this strategy. Some are saying it’s a terrible ideas ruining baseball and point to last night as proof. My point is Oakland used the wrong guy. Hendriks isn’t even a very good reliever and was hot in the month of September when he’s not facing the lineup one would see in the playoffs. I would have seen Petit and Trivino getting trough 4 to 5 innings and then letting any one not named Rodney take over. Would love to hear some of your thoughts on the practice and Oaklands execution last night. Thanks for everything Keith.
Keith Law: I would agree with this – Hendriks was a weird choice, one I haven’t seen explained, but that doesn’t invalidate the strategy.

Ridley Kemp: Am I wrong for feeling like we’re on the verge of the total breakdown of our democratic system? I remember Watergate and this is so much more open and obviously corrupt that I feel like the checks and balances have utterly failed.
Keith Law: It certainly feels that way, with the party in power willing to overlook absolutely anything – sexual assault, perjury, propaganda, foreign interference, environmental destruction – to get what they want (tax cuts and banning abortion).

Fuzzy Dunlop: What’s your guilty pleasure food? Like restaurant or even just a processed food item that you genuinely enjoy but doesn’t fall in line with your generally awesome tastes.
Keith Law: I have no idea what you’re talking about. (munches on Oreos)

J5: Pick one that will be a an all star : Kelenic, Gorman or Liberatore?
Keith Law: Kelenic. BTW I forget to mention Vientos when reviewing the Mets’ farm system last week – another guy drafted by the current scouting department who looks very good so far.

Alex: Does Ryan Mountcastle have enough of an arm to stay at 3B? Does Grenier have enough of a bat to be a regular SS? Thanks
Keith Law: Probably not, probably yes, in that order.

Ian: Thoughts on the Let the Kids Play ad?
Keith Law: Much better than the previous campaign, Don’t Let the Kids Play.

Alex: Does Brady Anderson’s continued presence hinder the Os from getting a good GM candidate to consider taking the job?
Keith Law: One of the questions any candidate should ask in the interview is whether Anderson will report to the new GM or to ownership. The only acceptable answer is the former. The latter is a dealbreaker.

Daniel: Freddy Galvis is a divisive figure in San Diego. The pro crowd is calling for him to be resigned, while the anti crowd says save the 40 man spot on a farm hand that needs to be added and let Guerra play short for a few until Tatis is ready. What say you?
Keith Law: I’d let him walk. Nice player, not worth the 40-man spot for a team that is going to need all of those spots.

Kenny: Do you believe the Ramirez and Swetnick stories?
Keith Law: Yes. Women very rarely lie about sexual assaults. These women told those stories knowing they’d likely end up facing tremendous public criticism and likely death threats. Believing that they lied despite those consequences requires a deeply misogynistic worldview.

Ian: As a young male, I really don’t feel afraid that I am going to get falsely accused of sexually assaulting someone. Is this argument really more of a case where old men are afraid that something from their past is going to get brought up?
Keith Law: I think the “all men should fear this” is basically dog-whistling to men who hate women.

Aaron C.: One of the sillier “accomplishments” tweeted over and over again by fans and beat writers was the A’s 2018 payroll relative to the Yankees. Why is cheap ownership proudly trumpeted towards the heavens?
Keith Law: Because fans and the media continue to side with billionaire owners over players. Yes, it’s wonderful that the A’s front office did more with less. The fact that the team plays in the 8th largest media market in the country is somehow swept under the rug.

George: Thoughts on Pedro’s assertion that Severino was pitching hurt in the 2nd half?
Keith Law: Entirely possible.

james: Has your opinion changed at all on Joey Bart since the draft?
Keith Law: No, because there is no reason it should have.

mike sixel: Byron Buxton was pretty much dead last in wrc+ and any other hitting statistic you want. He can’t be that bad again….but how long do we have to wait?
Keith Law: Didn’t play much and wasn’t necessarily healthy when he did play.

Aaron C.: Big fan of your occasional cooking posts/photos. Curious about your greatest cooking failures, though. Seem to remember you once posting about an attempt to make something like a polenta waffle. Anything more disastrous than that?
Keith Law: I’ve had my share of mistakes. Pizza doughs that tore when I stretched them. Custards that curdled. I burned a simple kale/bacon dish a few years ago when working with a new-ish stove. The polenta on the waffle iron might have worked but I needed to grease the hell out of it first and didn’t.

Aaron C.: I know it’s not your favorite thing to write up, but can we still expect a “Top 50 free agents” piece from you after the World Series? Off-the-top-of-your-head guess at #3 on that list?
Keith Law: I will do a FA ranking, and if Kershaw opts out, it’s him, otherwise probably Corbin.

Zihuatanejo: What board games (if any) would you recommend for a couple where one is an experienced gamer who likes more complex games, while the other is a relative newbie who doesn’t like lots of rules?
Keith Law: Jaipur and Targi are great two-player games that hit the midpoint for a couple like yours.

Tony: If you were Theo, what moves would you make to improve the Cubs chances next year(outside of saying goodbye to Addison Russell)?
Keith Law: I’d definitely move on from Russell as soon as that’s possible. They have to figure out what their regular outfield is going to be, and balance defense (Almora, Heyward) against boosting an offense that wildly underperformed this year – and you can’t pin that all on Bryant getting hurt. The obvious answer is go sign Harper or Machado and figure the rest out, but there’s going to be competition for those two and the Cubs need a plan B. They also had a disastrous dip into free agency last winter (Chatwood, Morrow, Darvish), which may color their view of the process. The one thing I would definitely advocate if I were in the front office is finding a way to retain Hamels.

Jen: How much credit does Coppy deserve compared to AA for the Braves success this season
Keith Law: Anthopoulos has given Coppolella quite a bit of credit for the foundation he laid, and I think that’s very fair. The system was and still is loaded.

David: Hi Keith, Buehler’s been very impressive to date. As a Cards fan, does Flaherty have the same type of pure “stuff” and upside in your mind? If not, what makes Buehler stand out?
Keith Law: Buehler has way better shit. Flaherty has incredible command, and obviously has a better history of health.

Stan: And guesses as to the final round candidates for Mets GM? And if they were to go with a younger more progressive higher, who realistically could that be?
Keith Law: From what I could tell, they’ve barely contacted anybody. Why they’ve waited this long is anyone’s guess.

Sean: Do you think it’s safe to say managers sticking around for as long as Scioscia is going the way of the dodo bird?
Keith Law: Yes, and also, I can’t imagine anyone wanting to do that job for that long.

Guest: I wondered what your thoughts were about the Jays firing Gibbons. Seemed to me that players liked him and responded to him and that the change was arbitrary at best. Why the switcheroo?
Keith Law: I know he’s indicated this was his choice, and I have no knowledge to contradict that – but he also wasn’t Shapiro/Atkins’ hire, and that rarely ends well.

Guest: What should the Braves do with their RF & 3B for next year? Sigh a FA or use a combination of Camargo (who was a 3 WAR player this year in less than a full season) and Riley?
Keith Law: Camargo probably starts the year at 3b, with Riley in AAA, since he missed a lot of time there due to injury. Short-term RF option would make sense, but they have outfielders coming in the system. I don’t like the idea of moving Camargo or Riley to RF and wasting their defensive value.

Taylor: If you were running the Yankees this offseason, what do you do with Andujar, Voit, and Bird? All seem like 1B/DH guys.
Keith Law: Andujar is the one you keep of the three for sure; I also don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that he’ll move off 3b, as bad as he was this year. Voit and Bird are pure DHs for me.

Fun Police: Do you have any baseball-related memories as a child where you actually enjoyed the game, or were you always a stat-obsessed nerd that takes no enjoyment from what he does?
Keith Law: Sorry, I rolled my eyes back so hard at this that I detached a retina.

Xam: Kike Hernandez had an interesting second half, and really turned it up in August/September — more walks than strikeouts, ISO over .200, OPS, wRC+ around 165. Given his defensive versatility and the fact that he overcame his problem with righties this year as well, are we looking at a budding star?
Keith Law: Really solid player, and everyone seems to love him in the clubhouse, but I am not drawing that kind of conclusion off a two-month sample.

andy: Looks like Gray won’t start Game 1 for the Rockies. He might not start at all. Something’s clearly not working there. Do you think he needs a change of scenery? Do you see anything specifically wrong with him?
Keith Law: Pitching in Coors is hard, man. You can be totally fine and still struggle there because your fastball doesn’t move quite as much, or contact is just a little harder than it would be elsewhere. All the more credit to Kyle Freeland for the year he had. If the Rockies want to shop Gray, they shouldn’t sell him for less than 90 cents on that dollar, because there’s a good chance he becomes an above-average starter somewhere else, and there’s still some chance he does it in Denver.

Josh: Chances Cedric Mullins sticks as an average to above average everyday player?
Keith Law: I think average is his ceiling.

Bob: Other than Settlers, what non-traditional (so excluding Monopoly, Risk) board games are good to introduce new people to gaming?
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride, Carcassonne, Dominion but that is better if you have one player who knows it to help introduce the concept. Azul is a little heavier, but it was my #1 game of 2017 and is such a visually appealing game I think it’s a good gateway title anyway.

Xam: Are you buying Max Fried as a starter in 2019 and beyond? The combo of groundballs and strikeouts is pretty sexy.
Keith Law: I am. Always believed in his stuff and athleticism. Not sure Atlanta has a rotation spot for him.

Josh: Any thoughts on Isaac Paredes? He looked to have great seasons at A and AA at a young age
Keith Law: Can really hit. Not sure there’s long-term upside but the bat is real.

Ryan: Klaw, what do you think is more sought after GM job, Mets or O’s?
Keith Law: Mets’ job will be unless the Angeloses are clear about letting the new GM have the appropriate amount of autonomy.

Dr. Bob: One of my favorite Dodgers teams was 1977. Four players (Garvey, Smith, Cey, and Baker) each hit at least 30 HRs, which set a record. How quaint. The entire team hit 191 which was the team record at the time. This year’s team hit a team-record 235. It’s a different game.
Keith Law: Extremely. And that’s both positive and negative.

Evan: How should I feel about Leody Tavares? The game results don’t match the tools and the great reports re his batting practice showings. Is it time to scale back my expectations, or can he be a first division starter?
Keith Law: Still young and physically underdeveloped. I believe he’s a first division starter with upside.

Matt: If a relief pitcher gives up one or more runs but holds a lead, his WPA for the game can be negative. But if a 9th inning pitcher gives up one or more runs without blowing the game, his WPA is automatically positive. Do closers have inflated WPA?
Keith Law: I don’t really care for WPA, since it’s entirely situation-dependent. But to be honest I’m not sure I follow your second statement there about the ninth inning guy.

Norman Golan: whatever happened to Delvin Perez? The Cardinals got him after he tested positive for PEDs, and I recall the reaction was (1) bad on the Cardinals for rewarding PED use and (2) hewas a great talent for the cards to get so late in the 1st round. But since then its been crickets
Keith Law: He’s been kind of terrible in pro ball.

Cameron C: Vladdy Jr or Wander Franco, who are you most excited to see grow into Major League guy and who could be the better player. Wander put up better stats than Vlad did at the same age in the Appy league.
Keith Law: Vlad’s a lot closer, but I don’t think it’s absurd to think Wander might end up better.

Mike: Are you astonished that so many Republicans (and especially evangelicals) say Kavanaugh should be confirmed even if it’s determined that he did commit sexual assault? I mean, where is our basic human decency?
Keith Law: I’m not astonished any more. I’m disgusted, sure, but not astonished.

Mike D: Has there ever been a study on how much “experience” helps, or “youth” hurts a team in the playoffs? You always hear announcers talk about it, but not sure if its fact or just more “chemistry and “it factor” talk?
Keith Law: It’s bullshit. I feel like there was a study years ago about the ages of playoff rosters but I have no memory of who did it. You can also see how young most of the recent WS winning rosters were.

Zac: Tigers are expected to move forward with Grayson Greiner. What is his ceiling? below average starter?
Keith Law: Backup.

Anthony: You’ve been critical of hiring MLB managers with no prior experience. I’m curious what the process looks like for evaluating a minor-league manager. No one cares about wins and losses and player development is probably a reflection of the org as a whole, so how would you evaluate their success? Just interviewing players?
Keith Law: Your player development director & other staffers spend the year visiting affiliates, and reviewing game reports. They’ll talk to the managers, coaches, and players in the system. They should know which managers were able to execute the FO’s plans for each player, and understand organizational philosophies, and which managers did well working with players of differing backgrounds.

Mike: In a few chats, you have mentioned Alex Scherff as a guy to watch in the Red Sox system. What’s his ceiling if he can stick as a starter?
Keith Law: Sounds like #2 starter.

Anthony: What’s your take on Ramon Laureano? Buying him as a regular?
Keith Law: Loved him in the AFL two years ago but he’s not going to post a .388 BABIP going forward. Good tools that might make him a fringe regular, much more likely he’s a very good fourth OF.

Jake: Keith, obviously ranking prospects has some subjectivity to it, however on mlbpipeline’s most recent top 100 KC had one representative. Singer at 60. I find it strange that you could have him at that slot and Lee, Lynch and Kowar nowhere in the top 100. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Lee is clearly a top 100 guy for me; Singer isn’t, but I’ve never been a big believer in him given the delivery and lack of a pitch for LHB. I think Lynch is better at this point. Kowar did not throw well this summer, so leaving him off is understandable and I doubt he’d make mine.

Grant: Thought Scooter Gennett would have made your column about “people you were wrong about” What’s your outlook for the rest of his career?
Keith Law: He’s never been much of anything vs LHP, which was my critique of him going back to the minors. I think he’s had one adequate year, which seems flukish. If this power is real – and he never showed it at all till he got to Cincinnati, but now has 50 HR in two seasons – he’s essentially the strong half of a superb platoon.

Scott: If you were the Phillies’ GM, and assuming that money is not a factor, what moves would you make to roster and/or coaching staff? Which players and/or coaches would you want to stay and let germinate?
Keith Law: People were killing Kapler here at the end of the season, booing him every trip to the mound, which is just so dumb. It was a bad defensive club and nothing he did was going to mitigate that. I’d like to see them move to upgrade their defense, while obviously using some of that war chest they’ve got to acquire some top flight talent in free agency. Pollock would be an interesting target. I already said I’m a big Corbin guy. He’d fit for just about any contender.

The Shrike: Over/under on the amount Carter Stewart will get if he’s declared a free agent and is not subject to any bonus pool restrictions?
Keith Law: If this wrist thing really isn’t a big deal for teams, I think he’ll get $6 million-plus.

Bill: Thanks for the chats Keith. They are easily in my top 7 shirking work activities. Do you think Dansby Swanson can still grow into an average to above average contributor at the plate?
Keith Law: I do, but he’s always going to strike out more than the typical player of his profile. That was the knock on his game in college, too.

Ed: Do you see pitching eventually adjusting to the obsession with launch angle, resulting in a higher concentration on pitchers with whatever attribute counteracts more loft in swings (be it a good high fastball, late lateral movement, or whatever)? And therefore creating a market again for more level swings / higher contact guys? I look at the Cubs this year, and it really struck me how they can destroy teams with their offense on one day and go completely inert the next (including 163 and the WC game) and I start thinking about what I wouldn’t give for someone who can just shorten his swing, put the bat on the ball, and work the count a bit.
Keith Law: I think it already has – that’s why you see teams trying to get guys who either live at the knees or can throw high-spin four-seamers at the top of the zone.

Mike: How far is Hiura away from taking the Brewers 2b job? Would you package him for a top of the rotation starter if you were in the Brewers situation?
Keith Law: If they feel like his defense is ready (and the elbow injury, whatever it was, is no longer a concern), then pretty much any time. I know scouts love his bat, but I feel like lingering concerns over the elbow would suppress his trade value.

Jimbo: Have you seen Luis Patino? How do you account for his ascendance into various Top 100s?
Keith Law: I have not. I don’t comment on other top 100s.

Cole: How soon do you think we could see Jo Adell up with the Angels? I’ve seen some people say they wouldn’t be surprised if he was up by the All Star Break next year, and I was wondering if you felt the same.
Keith Law: I think that’s very optimistic.

James: Hey Keith, I know you have opened up about Anxiety in the past. At what point, did you, or do you know it is a problem to go get help for it.
Keith Law: I had a brutal panic attack at age 39 while driving on Staten Island (insert joke about SI traffic here), and that really forced me to get help.

JR: Rockies tried piggbacking starters in ’12 or ’13 and were mocked for it (probably because it failed), while “openers” and “bullpen” games have, for the most part, have not been mocked (probably because it was successful). Perhaps the Rockies were on too something and just didn’t have the right arms or quite the right approach to make it work?
Keith Law: They had a decent idea but executed it poorly.

Rum Guy: Enjoying the Periscope sessions, This Boomer needs a new acoustic or maybe electro acoustic for playing here at home and so KLaw, what guitar models do u have?
Keith Law: Very simple – a Mitchell acoustic, a Stratocaster electric.

Mac: In this age of awful catchers can Zack Collins be league average?
Keith Law: My bet is no.

JP: would you start Devers at 3B regardless of whether starter is RH or LH? Nunez has similar defensive deficiencies without any of the pop/patience.
Keith Law: I would, yes. Devers’ eye is pretty good for his age.

JT: How has Shapiro done in Toronto? I’ll confess that I’m a little underwhelmed if that’s a word.
Keith Law: I think that’s fair, and it’s why he doth protest too much over my comment that they don’t have a top 5 farm system (note: still accurate). I’ve heard some stories from within the regime that don’t give me great confidence in their model going forward. I’ve also heard that there’s friction between him and Rogers which, if true, would be rather astounding since Rogers’ decision to hire him cost them Anthopoulos.

Ron: Do you think Mauer retires? It looks like it. Will really miss him. But he hasn’t been the same since the concussion. Some in Twins Land still don’t realize what they had. At least in his catching days one of the best around. Should have had 2 MVPs. Borderline HOF?
Keith Law: Sounds like he’s retiring, don’t think he gets into the Hall as his case is solid but not a slam dunk and relies heavily on advanced stats.

Kace: Isn’t it odd that someone would come here to troll you? That’s a lot of effort beyond being pissed off at an article and finding your Twitter.
Keith Law: Same couple of trolls every week, too. I have no idea what their end game is.

Jake: Are you a Doctor Who viewer? If so, thoughts on a woman getting a crack at the role? Looking forward to Sunday.
Keith Law: Actually never seen it, which is such a shame because I couldn’t fill my diaper over a fictional non-human character taking on a female form.

Chris: Are you still buying Franklin Barreto? It’s obvious he’s got some interesting tools in the tool kit, but the lack of contact really scares me. His bat-to-ball skills have definitely gone backwards since he was a younger prospect.
Keith Law: No, I’m out on that one.

Chris: Seems you were right about Newcomb and the Simmons trade. What are your thoughts on it now that it’s played out a little.
Keith Law: I think Simmons is the best defender in baseball, among the best we have ever seen, and Atlanta didn’t get nearly enough in that deal.

Chris: It all worked out, but I thought Boone’s handling of the 5th was bizarre. First, he sent Sevy back out even though he clearly emptied the tank vs Semien, and then, he went to the one guy in the pen who seems least equipped to enter with a jam. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I can’t be too hard on Boone for sending Severino out with a 0 still in the hits column. It would have been the right move to pull him, but between that and the low pitch count, it would have been extremely unusual.

Sean: Do you care about parity in the playoffs or do you just want the best teams to make it each year even if they are the same 8 teams year after year?
Keith Law: Best teams = best baseball. Baseball has parity in the NL right now, just not in the AL at the moment.

Joe: Is Jon Schoop a nontender candidate? Probably looking at over 10MM+ for his last year of arbitration and he had a brutal year.
Keith Law: Brutal year, much better a year ago, maybe not a fit for Milwaukee because of Hiura but not without trade value.

Zac: If I told you Casey Mize was the only Tigers pitching prospect that panned out, would you be shocked?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t be shocked, but I think Burrows has a pretty high floor too.

JR: Is Adam Sasser a potential draft pick? Assuming he is (or even if he’s not, assume he is for this question), if you worked in a front office how would you view him given he was kicked off his college team for using a racial slur. Would you completely remove him from your board or be willing to consider him?
Keith Law: He was draft-eligible in June but not selected. I would probably avoid him because he’d have to come play with many people of color, but I wouldn’t consider him untouchable like the child molester from Oregon State, or a player who’d committed sexual or physical assault on a woman.

Xam: Austin Barnes: what happened, and what should we expect going forward? Last year he looked like a top-3 catcher, and now….
Keith Law: He was never a top 3 catcher, though. Small samples.

Josh: Jazz Chisholm had a pretty strong year. What kind of ceiling do you project for him?
Keith Law: Very excited to see him in two weeks. Above-average regular to star upside.

Ben: Can you explain why “high spin” matters? Like, why not look for Ps who can throw high velocity pitches at the top of the zone?
Keith Law: High spin rate = less/inferior quality contact. High velocity doesn’t do that.

JR: Have you ever asked yourself a question using a pseudonym in a chat because there was a particular question they you wanted to answer?
Keith Law: I haven’t, but that would be kind of funny, if a little dishonest.

JG: Giardi, Bannister, David Ross, Alomor Jr., or Ausmus for Twins manager?
Keith Law: Ross has never managed, so I can’t support that. Ausmus never grew at all as a manager in Detroit, so would you really hire him unless you felt absolutely certain that in just one year off the job he’s changed his managing philosophy? Girardi was pretty solid in NY and I think he’d be a good hire for a lot of situations.

Corey: 5 minutes in one of these chats will provide the core of the KLAW worldview. If you’re offended by that POV but still choose to come to his personal site to troll him + generally be a f’ing asshole, you might want to examine your own life choices + ask yourself why you’re such a miserable person. Anyway… should Swihart be starting at C given that Leon + Vasquez can’t hit or stick with the PH strategy for later in the game ?
Keith Law: Agreed, and thank you. I’m a big Swihart fan and perhaps not totally objective on that one, but I think he’s the best option.

Tom: Thoughts on Mike Bordick as the O’s manager?
Keith Law: Nice guy … with no experience.

Jennyfer: If you were running a front office, I know you wouldn’t sign an abuser. I agree with that. How would you handle someone like Murphy or Turner who have said awful things, but haven’t broken the law?
Keith Law: Turner’s apology was an example of how to handle those situations well, with grace and understanding, so that you can go back into a diverse clubhouse and continue to have good relationships with teammates and coaches. Murphy, to my knowledge, has done none of that, and also does a great impression of Stonehenge in the field.

Eric: Dont hold back because he passed away: how do you feel about John McCain?
Keith Law: The thing that always comes to my mind around McCain is that he used professional sports – including MLB – in a circus hearing on PEDs that served no purpose but to promote himself. There was absolutely no reason for Congress to hold hearings on the topic or threaten to regulate this area in private, professional sports leagues. MLB is still dealing with the fallout from that. That isn’t the total of the man’s career, of course, but I will forever associate him with those hearings.

Jake: Would you ever want to interview Trump, if only to find out why he is the way he is?
Keith Law: I think that would be an incredibly frustrating experience.

Rowdy T: do you basically ignore September results for call ups (or everyone for that matter) due to the expanded rosters and teams playing out the string..
Keith Law: Yes.

Joe Don : I gathered last week that the Banister firing had a sour taste for you. Nonetheless, what qualifications do you think the Rangers need to consider in their new guy?
Keith Law: There’s something about that we don’t know – there were stories in Dallas area papers that he wasn’t communicating well with players, and I don’t know any more than you do about that, but if it’s true it’s certainly a problem that requires action from up top. That’s a developmental situation and a long-term rebuild, so I’d want someone with some real player development experience and willingness to work with young players.
Keith Law: Nobody asked for playoff predictions here, but at least one person did on Twitter and I feel like I have to give them somewhere, so here goes: Brewers in 4, Dodgers in 4, Cleveland in 4, Boston in 5. Bear in mind I rarely do much better than 50% on playoff picks, but there you have it.
Keith Law: And that’s all for this week – thank you all so much for your questions, including the haters, who appear to think I fell off the back of a turnip truck. I’ll be back next week for a chat prior to my AFL trip the week after. Enjoy this last full weekend of baseball!

My annual awards picks and ballots for the six major player awards (MVP, Cy, ROY) are up now for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: Like a crown of thorns, it’s all who you know. It’s Klawchat.

Aaron G: No question, just that tHe mVp cAn’T CoMe FrOm A lOsInG tEaM oR bE a PiTcHeR!!!!!!!

(Even though objectively deGrom was the best player in the NL this season.)
Keith Law: Getting that a lot today, which shows that there is a segment of the fan base that hasn’t matured intellectually since the late ’90s.

Arnold: Poor contract decisions, poor trades, and poor draft picks have cost Bobby Evans and Brian Sabean their positions in the Giants’ hierarchy. Who should the Giants be looking at to take their place?
Keith Law: I think it’s fair to say they should look outside; many of the names you’re hearing for the Mets, like Porter, Lacava, Heck, Elias, should all be on the Giants’ list. I argued on the BBTN pod today that they really need to explore trading Bumgarner, as it’s the fastest way to reboot the farm system, and the odds that Bumgarner is still healthy and effective the next time the Giants are good – in an extremely competitive division – are very slim.

Fangraphs Frank: Will we ever have pre-2002 advanced statistics (i.e. UZR) on sites like Fangraphs? I want to compare Ozzie Smith to the greatest defensive shortstop of all time — ANDRELTON SIMMONS!
Keith Law: We don’t have the raw data for that.

addoeh: Is this the right room for an argument?
Keith Law: I’ve told you once.

Darren: Thoughts on Garrett Hampson and Ryan Vilade. Both were top 10 Rox prospects and had good seasons. They didn’t show much in game power but the strike zone judgement and swing looked good. Are you as concerned when scouting minor league power with the change in the MLB and MiLB baseballs. Many guys are showing power when they get to the majors. I agree Vilade defense will not keep him at SS, do you expect 3B, 2B, or OF to be his final spot?
Keith Law: I don’t think Hampson has enough power to profile as a regular – never mind HR power, but ability to make hard enough contact to sustain the walk rate (that is, why wouldn’t pitchers attack him inside given the lack of hand strength). Vilade will, I think. 3b likely, a regular or more.

Pizza: What was the worst pizza you’ve ever had, and why was it the worst?
Keith Law: Tough call between Papa John’s or Domino’s. The whole cardboard taste is tough to get past.

Jo-Nathan: Do you like what the Brewers have done with Corbin Burnes, or would you rather have seen him come up as a starter?
Keith Law: I like seeing future starters break in as relievers, in general, as long as they’re handled appropriately given that they’ve never been used back-to-back days before. Counsell’s been doing that more with Burnes – twice in the last three weeks – and that’s where I diverge with the Brewers’ plans for him.

Jon: Buying stock in Tyler Glasnow? He has a 4.11 ERA and over a K/inning since joining the Rays. If you take away the one bad start it’s a 2.90 ERA in 50 innings. Take away his best outing after that and it’s still a 3.30. Looks like he’s more calm and relaxed since going to Tampa.
Keith Law: Need to see a lot more than a good month-plus from a guy with that much history of poor performance.

Evan: Am I wrong to think Baez is closer to Trevor Story in MVP voting than Yelich? I get the positional flexibility but that OBP is not MVP-level. Yelich has 68 points on him! (almost nice)
Keith Law: The OBP isn’t, but Baez plays average or better defense at shortstop, and gets a huge boost to any stat that compares him to R-level as a result.

Mike: Do you think the accusations against Kavanaugh are sufficient grounds for his nomination to be voted down? And do any Republicans have the guts to do so?
Keith Law: They are – but frankly there was sufficient grounds beforehand and nobody cared.

Thad: Is Jameson Taillon a GUY? Dude’s been electric.
Keith Law: He is. My breakouts column this year was very much a mixed bag but I’m glad I had Taillon and Snell on it, at least.

Sean: If the Mets gave Dom Smith 550 AB at 1B next season, over/under on: .262/.346/.459
Keith Law: Over. I don’t think they’ll give him that, though.

Victoria: Biggest disappointment this year – Kingery, Bell, Mazara, Margot? Some belief in these guys heading into next season?
Keith Law: I’m most disappointed in Mazara – he looked great in March, lot of talk around AZ about his approach improving, then performed accordingly in April and May, but has totally regressed since then. .218/.279/.403 in the second half. Still young, but that’s now three full seasons of essentially the same thing.

Nate: I’m going to go out on a limb, and say that Mike Trout will get zero first place votes for MVP this year. Does this make you much smarter than everyone else, or out of touch?
Keith Law: I think he’ll get a few, and I think you’ve nicely demonstrated the concept of the false dichotomy.

Jeff: Ian Anderson best upstate NY prospect since…? Corbin ever that high? Jason Grilli?
Keith Law: Highest I can remember.

Jackie: I’m guessing the Red Sox let Craig Kimbrel hit the FA market this winter — gotta save money for Mookie, Sale, et al. What kind of contract do you think Kimbrel gets? I feel like Kimbrel might be in for a bit of a surprise; he probably won’t get the Aroldis Chapman 5 year/$86 million deal, or close to it.
Keith Law: I don’t think the market is going to support paying closers that kind of money now. Could be wrong, just seems like more teams have wised up about overpaying for the save stat, but are just generally focused on getting guys who miss bats for late-inning work, spending the same or more money in total but spreading it over more guys (including pitchers without saves).

Rob D: My friends and I unwittingly planned our Arizona Fall League trip the same week as the stupid skills competition. Are there any other baseball options on Saturdays like instructional league games? How does one access that stuff?
Keith Law: The skills competition is the single worst thing about the AFL and I wish they’d either cancel it completely or do what they did last year and schedule it before the season starts. It is totally fan-unfriendly to shorten the first week to four days. I think instructs are done by then. I’m not going till the second week for this exact reason.

Joe Don: Any thoughts you’d care to share on the Jeff Banister firing?
Keith Law: Nope.

dhakadabay: The Brewers have used a model for Corbin Burnes’ rookie season that you’ve espoused in the past–mostly middle relief, gradually increasing the leverage of the situations over the course of the season–and it seems to have paid off. What’s his upside as a starter going forward?
Keith Law: I think he’s a 3, chance to be a 2 if the command is better than we thought.

silvpak: urias has looked shockingly good in his brief appearances since returning (41 pitches, 31 for strikes, touched ~97[!] in his last appearance). he has no place on the postseason roster, imho (assuming they make it), but any thoughts on the early returns, more from a health/ability perspective than any stats?
Keith Law: I have no idea what’s going on in his shoulder, so no, sorry.

Dr. Andrews: With Morton suffering from the dreaded “shoulder stiffness,” is the Verlander-Cole-Keuchel combo plus a multi-headed super reliever (McCullers?) going to be enough to make it out of the AL?
Keith Law: I think so.

Darren: As a vegetarian I am thankful for all the other options today to help the average person find delicious healthy food. Have you tried the Impossible burger or Beyond Meat burgers? Those two are so far ahead of all other veggie burgers on the market. The impossible meatballs and beyond meat sausages are also great products.
Keith Law: I’ve had the Beyond burgers and was very impressed. They’re meat-like enough that I would say they’re a good substitute (granted, I don’t eat beef any more, but have had it hundreds of times). My only complaint is that their burgers are pre-formed and quite small for a single portion.

JJ: Unless Chris Sale pitches this weekend, he won’t have enough IP to qualify for the ERA title. Should a starting pitcher who throws fewer than 162 total innings in a season be a viable Cy Young candidate (I’d give it to Snell, regardless)?
Keith Law: If he’d pitched well enough, sure – 150 innings of a 1.50 ERA/FIP would probably do it. Verlander is my pick though.

James: I was watching a game on TV and the scroll along the bottom said that Bryce Harper just had his first 100 rbi season. I had to look it up. Dumb question and not some jerk question, what makes him a $300 million dollar player? 2015 was a great year for him but he hasn’t achieved that again in the three years after. Is it ok to say he Is going to be in the 2-4 WAR range per year with maybe a great year mixed in?
Keith Law: RBI are a terrible, useless measure of individual performance. He was worth about 5 WAR last year, and was only below 4 WAR this year because of poor defensive metrics, some of which came from playing out of position in CF. He’s shown himself to be a star hitter when healthy, but has had at least two years wrecked by injuries. The upside is clearly there, though.

Nate: Where do the Orioles go from here? I look at that roster, and I see nobody with any trade value at all. So it will probably be a quiet off-season. Do Orioles fans just sit back, and hope the O’s draft well for the next three years, and tune back in around 2021?
Keith Law: Hope they draft well and do more internationally (after years of avoiding the market) and change up their development processes for pitchers (of which Buck was a part) and find some value on the scrap heap. It’s a long road back to respectability. I have no objection at all to Duquette getting an extension – the reality is he’s done that job with one hand tied behind his back for years – but has any GM kept his job after a 110 loss season before? I guess Dombrowski sort of counts in Detroit, but that thing was on fire when he sat down on it.

Moe Mentum: Favorite rock drummer of all time?
Keith Law: Always was a fan of Barrett Martin of the Screaming Trees, Tuatara, and a bunch of other acts.

Moe Mentum: Besides Italy, which European country do you (or would you) most enjoy visiting?
Keith Law: I’d love to go east – seeing Dubrovnik and the Dalmatian coast of Croatia is a bucket-list item for me, as is spending time in Amsterdam.

Dante: If you were Klentak, would you sign Machado or Harper, assuming the price is readonable enough on either one?
Keith Law: I’d sign either one; I think Machado is the clearer upgrade for them.

Owen: Is Logan Shore a guy?
Keith Law: Back-end starter, maybe.

Kyle KS: How do the Angels get the most value out of Ohtani moving forward? Full starter’s workload and fill in DH ABs, Full time OF with ~600 ABs or a mix of both like they perused this season?
Keith Law: Well he’s not pitching next year, but if we’re talking 2020 and beyond, I would aim to use him as much as a starter as his arm health allows, and mix in part time DH at bats like this year.

mark: Hi Klaw,
Last week you responded to a question about Mejia and Hedges by saying “Hedges is just not a good enough hitter to push Mejia off to another position”… but is he a good enough defender to at least make the Pads attempt to convert Mejia into a guy who plays multiple positions (OF/C/3B) during the season? If not, should they just trade Hedges now?
Keith Law: Sorry, implicit in my response was that Hedges’ defense, while good, isn’t enough to mitigate how bad his bat is.

Joe Cleveland: I have heard great things about Brayan Rocchio. Is he a candidate for the back end of your top 100 list?
Keith Law: A candidate, no real idea what the back of my list will look like until I start working on it in earnest.

JD: If you were the new GM of the Giants, would you trade Bumgarner during the Winter Meetings or at the deadline? And what type of package would you expect to get?
Keith Law: You’ll always get more of a market in the winter, when just about every team has room in its budget to add a major piece, than in July, when only a handful of teams do.

Skip: True or False: The hearing today isn’t going to change the mind of one single person with regard to whether they think Judge Kavanaugh should be confirmed.
Keith Law: True. I think it’s all theater, personally.

Joe: Fair to be a bit disappointed in Gleyber’s season? His approach has been quite poor at times and he has struck out a lot.
Keith Law: Not fair. He’s a kid who was in A-ball two years ago.

squeeze bunt: bold to hold a chat considering what’s going on. Small chatrrom today?
Keith Law: Nope, seems jammed as usual.

Jerry: Should Keuchel and Marwin get qualifying offers? What’s the negative for the Astros if they do give them?
Keith Law: Keuchel yes, Marwin no.

Mark: Do you see the improvement from Zack Wheeler this year as sustainable ?
Keith Law: If he’s able to stay healthy, and maintain this kind of workload, yes.

squeeze bunt: Have you started any draft coverage for next year? Any thoughts on the class after the summer showcases?
Keith Law: I won’t rank guys probably until February, but every single scout or exec I’ve talked to agrees that the class is very down. The college crop is especially poor.

Jax: Will Basabe get consideration for being in your top 100?
Keith Law: The question doesn’t really mean anything – I’ll consider 150-200 players from the start and work down from there.

Anne: Please hold forth on the extreme overshift. Good or bad?
Keith Law: Good as long as it works. Bad when any player starts trying to hit against it.

Dr. Bob: You may have muted him, but the guy who was asking about deGrom’s value was sincerely asking about value. His brusqueness masked that. I think I was able to convince him.
Keith Law: Not sure who that was, but I’m surprised to hear someone changed their mind via a Twitter discussion.

Manuel: What you tell us about Vidal Brujan’s plate discipline? Walk-rate looks awesome, reports say he’s a free swinger.
Keith Law: Not a free swinger, certainly.

James: I’m on a Euro-trip right now seeing: Copenhagen, Stockholm, Lithuania, Prague, Warsaw, Budapest and Dublin. Have you been to any of these places ? Can you rank ?
Keith Law: Been to Dublin, Budapest, Stockholm. Loved them all. Budapest was the most striking visually and the food was the most different. Stockholm was the best for just walking around.

MATT K: Thoughts on Michael King and his performance this season?
Keith Law: He was in my minor league players of the year piece.

section 34: How are you able to chat with these hearings going on? I can only type this during a break.
Keith Law: Why in God’s name would I watch that shit? A bunch of old white men interrogating a rape victim like she’s a damn criminal? Insinuating that she made this story up, subjecting herself and her family to doxing, relentless press coverage, and death threats? And all of this so they can vote as they were going to the entire time? Really? I have more self-respect than that.

carson: Going forward, would you rather have Benintendi or Moncada?
Keith Law: Benintendi. That’s always been my answer – I said Moncada would have trouble with contact and he has.

Joshua: Love Andrew Wood…..that is all. Please continue.
Keith Law: It’s pointless speculation but I think he would have become a superstar between his lyrics and his personality on stage.

Stephen: So can Mondesi be a star?
Keith Law: Not with a 3% walk rate and fringy power.

Mike: What do you think of NSNG diets?
Keith Law: I don’t see the point of eliminating any specific item or ingredient from your diet for non-medical reasons – sugar is bad for you in moderate to large quantities, but in small quantities, it’s fine. Eliminating grains is probably a terrible idea.

Jax: Fried has to be trade bait this winter right?
Keith Law: I think he’s in the mix of starters they’ll peddle because they can’t keep them all, between a 40-man crunch and the fact that they only have so many starts to hand out next year.

Jerry: I’m almost the exact same age as Kavanaugh. I didn’t go to an elite prep school but there were a lot of rich (almost all white) boys at my HS who thought they could do whatever they wanted with no consequences. Why is it so hard for other (mostly white men) to comprehend and accept this?
Keith Law: I have no idea, especially with copious data on the prevalence of such behavior among American teenagers.

Jesse: Your insinuation that Hawk is a racist was a cowardly act intended to raise your own profile. You should be ashamed of yourself and
Keith Law: I quoted Harrelson. If his own words make him sound like a racist, well, quack quack, motherfucker.

Monty: Do you think Kris Bryant gets back to his normal self this season or is it too late?
Keith Law: He hasn’t looked completely healthy since he came back (and just got hurt again on an HBP the other night). I have no idea at what point he’ll feel close to 100%, but he doesn’t look it right now.

kbrown: What is your preferred stat when looking at offensive contribution? I like OPS+ but lots of smart people I know put more stock in wRC+. Why would one be better than the other?
Keith Law: I think wRC+ weights the components better.

Matt: Who is mostly to blame for the Dodger’s failure this season? Friedman? Roberts? Players?
Keith Law: They did lose their best player to injury pretty early on. If they have Seager, they’re probably 2-3 games better, and in first place, and then there isn’t a question.

A Reds Fan in Search of Hope: Trammell had a really nice first half followed by a pretty ordinary second with more Ks and lower power numbers. Any reason to think he wont reach that above avg regular/occasional all-star?
Keith Law: I’m not terribly worried. High IQ player with a good mix of skills and tools, including bat speed.

Anthony: What did you make of Lucchesi’s season? Any reason to think his weird repertoire can work long-term as a starter?
Keith Law: Back-end starter. Dude repeats his delivery like a machine. That’ll make it tough for hitters even seeing him twice through.

Mac: Do you think Maikel Franco would be a good change of scenery target?
Keith Law: Yes. His year has been better than the WAR would imply – he’s had some better results at the plate, and the guy is strong AF, so if he just continues to make better decisions at the plate, he’s going to accidentally slug .480 or so.

Jack: Genuinely curious to hear your opinion on the deadspin Jace Fry story: It’s obvious that Addison Russell should be disciplined for his actions, but where would you land on MLB discipline for somebody like Fry, whose transgressions seem to be constantly cheating on his wife and potentially giving her an STD from it?
Keith Law: Giving someone an STD intentionally or recklessly is a crime in some states. If he’s committed such a crime, then MLB *might* have cause to act, but I also think the union would argue it’s not covered anywhere in existing policies like domestic violence is.

Erin: Nats should let Harper walk, and play a Soto-Robles-Eaton OF next year right? (Then use the savings to lock up Rendon long term and address pitching, 2b, and C? )
Keith Law: I think that’s the right strategy – they can better use that money to fill other spots because the difference between Harper and Robles next year will not be as much as Harper will cost in free agency.

Jim: You play guitar exactly the way I would expect a baseball writer to play.
Keith Law: I’m sure I play it better than you do, sparky.

Josh: Hi Keith, can you give me your quick thoughts on DBax Blaze Alexander, Kristian Robinson and Geraldo Perdomo? Are they good prospects?
Keith Law: Robinson certainly is. Alexander is very TBD for me – great summer after a lot of spring reports that he couldn’t hit.

Mac: Do you think Quinn Priester will be on your spring hit list?
Keith Law: On my long list, so to speak, yes. Depends on lots of things like weather and how well these kids play when their seasons start (and thus if scouts tell me I do/don’t have to see someone).

Jim: Maybe if you cut back on the pizza you wouldn’t be a bloated fat loser.
Keith Law: Yeah, I’m many things, short among them, perhaps a loser, but fat I am not.

Monty: Do you think America is the greatest country in the world? I’ve been raised with all of that rah rah stuff and yes we have so many great qualities, but from guns to medicine to academics to the shit show in DC, so much logical evidence says no.
Keith Law: I’ve never believed that, nor do I believe it is important or patriotic to believe it. I’d rather see the country for what it is, good and bad, and advocate for change where I think it’s needed.

Guest: Always been a big fan of Gibby. What are the chances he lands another manager job in the MLB? Is Texas a realistic possibility?
Keith Law: He was a good tactical manager and handler of players, and if he was forced out – I haven’t heard anything on that situation – that’s not great, Bob. I’d love to see him get another chance but I don’t know if that’s realistic.

Ridley Kemp: If you didn’t see the thread on the official Steak-umm twitter account last night, it’s worth checking out. Also, we live in really strange times when the Steak-umm twitter account is a source of empathy and hard truths.
Keith Law: It was tremendous. At first I was wondering if they were hacked but I guess they just do real talk on their feed.

JT: Has their ever been a year during which Trout wasn’t the deserving, rightful AL MVP? Can you think of another baseball player whose career was similar–even A-Rod wasn’t clearly the MVP every single year, right?
Keith Law: Bonds had that stretch – I know, I know – where no one could touch him, but he wasn’t that way every year from the start of his career.

Scott: Sale was productive last night despite a severe down-tick in velo (also, it was against the Orioles, so large grain of salt). Can that work in the playoffs, or do the Sox need to be sit him for fear of injury?
Keith Law: You have to start him, right? Their odds of advancing are higher if he starts once per series.

JR: Wasn’t Addison Russell already previously suspended for domestic violence? Are these new allegations or is his ex-wife just sharing new details about past abuse? Either way, can he just be DFA’d and go away?
Keith Law: He was never suspended the first time, and the investigation was still open, pending his ex-wife talking to MLB and perhaps additional information.

John: Biggest self own so far is Hatch calling Dr. Ford attractive in a press gaggle. Bets on “What were you wearing?” as a question if he hadn’t surrendered his time to Mitchell?
Keith Law: Calling a rape or sexual assault victim “attractive” is perfectly fine if in your head it’s still 1947.

James: Pollock and Corbin are now free agents so I think the Dbacks should trade Goldy and start the rebuild. What you say Klaw ?
Keith Law: Are they really non-competitive without those two? The division is tough but I don’t think they’re out of it without Pollock. Corbin is the bigger loss. If they do rebuild, Greinke is the first name I’d trade. But I’m not giving up on them even if they lose both free agents. Core is still good enough to make them a 90-win team.

Frank: I know you’re a big fan of board games but do you play any computer games? If so, have you played Out of the Park Baseball (a management sim)?
Keith Law: Very few computer games, just because of time. OotP is excellent but way too time-consuming for me.

Joe: If you’re the Braves: Newcomb or Teheran for game 4? Do you just go with one of them and have Touki ready to go at a moments notice?
Keith Law: Or start Touki and expect him to go twice through the order.

Jax: So Conforto’s been on a terror the past several weeks. He should have a big 2019, no?
Keith Law: I hope so. Love watching him hit, been a big believer in him since the Mets took him.

Mick: Thoughts Kyle Wright vs Gore?
Keith Law: Mackenzie Gore? Better in just about every respect other than FB velocity.

addoeh: There were many reasons to reject Gorsuch’s SC confirmation, but none of them were due to a history of sexual assault like for Kavanaugh. So these fears that anyone and everyone will start to make them up going forward are way overblown.
Keith Law: Right – look at how many people with questionable or minority views on topics sailed through the Senate under this Administration without four women coming out and accusing them of sex crimes.

AGirlHasNoName: I know this is wrong, but I am not angry with you about not having Baez as your MVP. I don’t think you hate the Cubs. I can see why DeGrom has been better. I hope it’s ok that I still think Javy is more fun to root for than anyone and as such I am giving him my fake vote for MFP, an award MLB desperately needs more qualified candidates to compete for.
Keith Law: I’ve said that Baez is my favorite player to watch right now, so no, nothing wrong with that. The tagging, the swagger, the pop-up slide, the enthusiasm – give me 25 more of him across baseball. And let’s stop trying to beat that energy and willingness to display it out of players while they’re young.

Andrew: Should I still be optimistic heading into the offseason that Josh Bell is the immediate answer at 1B for the Pirates?
Keith Law: I’ve asked this question before but don’t have an answer: Why do the Pirates’ young hitters not hit for power in games? Just about every one of their recent hitting prospects back to Polanco’s arrival has hit for less power in the majors than expected in an era where even guys without much power hit 11-20 homers and guys who might have had average raw hit 30+. Bad luck? Coincidence? Are they pushing contact over loft?

Chris: I’m getting really excited about Touki Toussaint after watching him pitch a few times. Walks are high, yeah, but his stuff is unreal. Any reason for me to tap the brakes on my Touki hype train?
Keith Law: Nah, he’s super athletic and his delivery works, so I believe he’ll continue to improve his control and command in a way that I didn’t (don’t) believe Newcomb will.

Doug: I know the draft class is not good, but should I still root for the Padres to be swept so they can try for the 3rd pick?
Keith Law: More money is always better in this draft system.

Mike: What’s the best BlueJays can hope from David Paulino?
Keith Law: High-end reliever. Not sure he gets to that.

Chris: Now that he’s lined up to pitch Sun (and not the WC game), would Sevy be the first guy out of the pen in the WC if it’s before 5th inn, knowing that means neither he nor the starter could pitch until Game 3 of ALDS?
Keith Law: Yeah, because you have to win that game, but it really hurts them in the DS if they have to do it.

Patrick: As a person who lives with anxiety, does it drive you nuts when a sufferer is questioned as to why they aren’t ALWAYS anxiety laden?
Keith Law: People who don’t have anxiety are welcome to ask me about it. They are not welcome to tell me how I should feel, or ask why I don’t do X given that I have it, or to mock it when they wouldn’t mock someone with diabetes or MS or another medical condition.

David: To me, the most disappointing aspect of the Brett Kavanaugh fiasco, is that people are fighting for the win, rather than fighting to find out the truth.
Keith Law: I’d like to agree, but 1) discerning truth beyond a reasonable doubt for something that happened 30 years ago is difficult if not impossible, and 2) the relevant base rate here is that false reports of sexual assault are extremely rare. We probably know the truth. 51 Senators just don’t like it.

Todd: Has Severino regressed due to a lack of confidence in Sanchez catching? Or is it more than that?
Keith Law: He hasn’t looked right to me at all in the second half. Fastball command way down. Fastball and slider both a little worse.

Scott: Learn anything new on the guitar lately? I was impressed with your periscope performance.
Keith Law: Thank you. I try to do a new song or two a day. Chloe Dancer/Crown of Thorns was one from earlier this week (it’s just a few chords, the intro is the only tricky part) so I made it my intro quote.

Tony O: Everyone is looking for the latest market inefficiency. First it was D and OBP and lately fly ball hitters. Could high contact, low launch angle hitters be the next trend, along with fast position versatile players?
Keith Law: I believe teams have already explored that to some extent. If your speed/athleticism isn’t elite, though, it’s probably not enough of an efficiency – unless MLB changes the baseball and tweaks the strike zone.

Owen: Hi, Keith! If you are the Nationals and legitimately interested in keeping Bryce Harper (it’s hard to tell, but I think they are?), do you help relieve the glut of outfielders by using either Harper or Soto (preferably the latter as he is the worse fielder) as your first baseman next year against tough righties and during the inevitable Zimmerman DL stint, then move one of them there full-time after Zim’s contract is up next winter? That would be a way to maximize ABs for all the OF talent, am I right?
Keith Law: If they re-sign Harper, they should explore trading Robles or Eaton. Moving any of those guys to 1b is a waste of their value and they do have Zimmerman in the way.

David: After the severity of the shoulder injury, would it be shocking if Julio Urias was able to carve out a solid career as a SP?
Keith Law: The base rate here is based on a small sample but it is zero – no pitcher has had that surgery and had any kind of solid career as a starter.

Darren: I always find myself wanting more with the Beyond meat burgers too, they need multiple sizes. I usually cook 1 extra for the family and it usually is split.
Keith Law: Glad it’s not just me.

Abe: Hi Keith – Always been a big fan of yours. I’m sure you’ve addressed this before, but is there any reason why you started doing your chats here and not ESPN (which was well before ESPN moved away from them all together)? Just curious to know!
Keith Law: That’s not accurate – I moved here when ESPN spiked their chats.

Scooter: How would you evaluate Gabe Kapler’s first season as an MLB manager? Think there is anything to the rumblings that free agents may not want to play for him?
Keith Law: I think he did a great job and it’s reflected in the standings and in the way several young players improved this year. I don’t believe those rumblings at all.

Greg: Curious how the Sale Snell debate compares to the Carpenter Vasquez voting in 2009
Keith Law: I’m triggered.

Grant: Do you expect all 30 teams to be represented at the Mesa brothers’ workout in Miami next month, considering VVM’s upside isn’t considered to be that of those such as Moncada, Lazarito, etc.?
Keith Law: There’s no reason for a team to skip it. Go see what they are, and if you don’t sign him, you still have information that might be useful later on.

Lemming: You want to go to Amsterdam… have you ever smoked? Would you consume if it was legal? Do you know of any benefits it would have for anxiety?
Keith Law: Never smoked weed or consumed it (or CBD) in any form. No objection to folks who want to. I asked Kathy Jennings, the Delaware candidate for Attorney General, for her view on decriminalization of marijuana possession and was pleased to hear her say she supported it as part of a larger criminal justice reform package.

Matt: A woman went up to Lindsay Graham and told him she had been raped when she was younger. He just shrugged and said “Go tell the cops.” How on earth do these monsters get voted into important jobs?
Keith Law: I mistakenly thought in 2016 that he was a relative voice of reason in that party. He has proven me more wrong than I was on Sale and Goldschmidt combined.

DuffMann: A few days ago I saw you post your appreciation of Evolution’s Lot No. 3 on Twitter. When you’re traveling around the country and decide to have a beer are you usually an IPA guy?
Keith Law: I’m not. That is my favorite IPA though.

Jace: Surprised at how well Ohtani has hit? I thought you said he wasn’t a MLB ready bat
Keith Law: In half a season of judicious usage. I’m more surprised how often I see him get pitches out over the plate, since he’s got such a weakness inside (and a 30% K rate).

Steve: Looks like Duquette is going, Buck is staying. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Keeping Showalter, given their problems developing pitching under his watch, and thus saying the new GM doesn’t get to pick his manager, would be a big concern if I were an O’s fan.

Lumin: BP has Trout ahead of Betts in WARP, so a Trout vote is by no means wrong. However, that difference is not explained defensively – all 3 sites say that Betts has been roughly 1 win better in the field.

But I found your reasoning for putting Trout over Betts interesting, and it’s basically that KLawWAR is constructed differently than bWAR or fWAR, right? With high skepticism of current defensive quantification and high emphasis on TAv (true average)?
Keith Law: I try not to be too slavish to any single WAR because they all impart useful information, and some of the component stats (like defensive metrics) are still a little noisy. I don’t use the BP stats, though.

Kevin: Believer in Marquez? Should Colorado lock him up? Reminds me of the second half Arrieta had a few years ago
Keith Law: His year has been outstanding. I think he’s going to still have trouble with LHB and if he has a bad-luck year in that regard he’s going to lose a lot of value quickly.

Tracy: The Name of the Rose vs. The Hound of the Baskervilles. Go.
Keith Law: I’m in the tank for Sherlock Holmes. Sorry.

Skip: Any chance that Renato Nunez could be the long term answer at 3B for the Orioles? Defense was a real question mark but he’s looked pretty good there since he’s started playing every day.
Keith Law: Seen him a lot as a prospect and he was never close to playable at third for me.

Joshua: Chloe Dancer/Crown of Thorns is a masterpiece. And yes, the chat has now ended.
Keith Law: Let us go in peace to love and serve the WAR. Thank you all for all of your questions, as always. I’ll chat next week as well, likely Thursday again. Enjoy this final weekend and let’s hope we get a game 163 on Monday.

My annual look at players I was wrong about is now up for ESPN+ subscribers. (Please read the intro to that column before asking about it here.) I also reviewed the digital version of Scythe, available on Steam, for Ars Technica.

Keith Law: I can feel no sense of measure. Klawchat.

Nick: Are you at all worried about Machado’s career splits at Camden Yards and away? He’s been league-average outside of Baltimore.
Keith Law: No. Camden Yards is not a hitter’s park despite its reputation as such.

Nick: If you’re the Rangers, do you look to trade Profar or is he a guy that could be a part of the next good Rangers team?
Keith Law: I’d hate to give up on a guy who was my #1 overall prospect before the shoulder injury cost him two years, and who now seems to be getting back on track to at least above-average regular status (and I’m stubborn, I still expect more).

squeeze bunt: A lot of writers are saying Preller is going to do something big to acquire a starting pitcher. What kind of move can you see this taking shape as? Thor or something similar?
Keith Law: I don’t see why he’d do that with all the pitching coming – and some of it quite close to ready.

Chris: As Edwin Diaz continues to accumulate saves, the Mariners message boards are actively rooting for teams to score runs when the Mariners are ahead to bring the margin within three. I get not having anything else to look forward to as they’re not going to make the playoffs, but is there any better example of saves being so arbitrary and non-substantive and of a stat where game strategy might change just to fit a specific situation that may or may not occur? There’s even advocating for him to start the 7th to get a 3 inning save up 10-0.
Keith Law: Fuck the save stat.

Nick: Does Puig still have a star ceiling or is he settled in as a regular that fluctuates between average and above?
Keith Law: He has the tools to be a star but I don’t think it’s reasonable to speak of ceiling for a player whose listed age is 27 (he’ll play all of next year at 28) and hasn’t had a star-level performance in any of the last five seasons.

Dan the Mets Fan: I’m calling it now: Jeff McNeil headlining “Players I Was Wrong About” next year.
Keith Law: If McNeil posts a .360 BABIP in a full season next year, sure. At least you seem like you read the intro, though.

Dan the Mets Fan: Who would you pursue at C if you had no real solution there… Ramos or Grandal?
Keith Law: I’d prefer Ramos.

Kevin : Oriole OF Diaz- does he start next year as your opening day outfielder or does he stay on the farm and
Keith Law: If they want to play service time games, then he starts on the farm, but I’d just give him a regular job next year (and not re-sign Jones) and let him develop.

David: We’re just going to keep doing this stupid Tebow thing, aren’t we?
Keith Law: Yep, and we’re going to make it some weird referendum on America or Christianity or the flag, too.

John: Does major league baseball do anything about the Major disparity among payrolls. I love baseball but it just doesn’t seem fair. Are you amazed at the A’s and Rays have done so well ? It’s also about how much you spend on your scouting and not just payroll
Keith Law: “Fair” is an arbitrary concept, and probably not a great argument for trying to equalize payrolls – which, by the way, won’t do anything but shift money from players to the billionaire owners.

Washington nationals fan: If you were the GM of the Nats does Dave Martinez return as your manager for 2019 ?
Keith Law: Yes. I don’t think he’s any of the problem this year. That’s not saying I think he’s great, or clearly the long-term answer, but evaluating him on this year’s won/lost record would probably not yield meaningful information.

Stanley: Do you agree that the powers that be in D.C. should be pushing Keith Ellison for information about the accusations against him just as much as they are pushing Kavanaugh? The allegations against Ellison are very recent and specific, with photographs and police reports. The fact that someone so high in his party seems to be getting an Osuna-like free pass just proves the hypocrisy that is so prevalent among our national leaders.
Keith Law: I do. I’ve been surprised he’s skated on the accusations – and Democrats who were furious he didn’t get the DNC chair have to be relieved at this point.

Archie: This season will have the most games ever where a team used at least 7 pitchers. Do you see this as a good thing for the game?
Keith Law: I don’t, but I’m loath to make too many changes that might force some pitchers to work more than is safe for their arms. Reducing mid-inning pitching changes – that is, forcing managers to make more changes between innings – would help pace of play, although it probably would increase run-scoring.

BE: Are you able to turn your guitar volume to 11?
Keith Law: Of course. I bought a special amplifier for that very reason.

Meeee: I know you’d probably think it would be too self-congratulatory, but would you ever write a “Guys I got RIGHT (that nobody else did)” column? I’d find it interesting.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t for that reason. Readers are generally quite kind about pointing those out anyway.
Keith Law: Oh, also, how about that Jack Flaherty fella?

Rhys: Daz Cameron spanned 3 levels this year at age 21 – was this surprising to you? He seemed to struggle in AAA (although in only 57 ABs). Do you see him as anything more than a marginal MLB regular someday?
Keith Law: 57 AB is barely worth acknowledging, and I think he’s an above-average regular. I’m totally flummoxed at why you think he’s just a marginal regular.

Dr. Bob: The Cardinals’ Tyler O’Neil was considered the better OF prospect but Harrison Bader was more major league ready so he got the first call-up this year. Now he’s become the everyday center fielder. Safe to say no one else saw this coming either. Great defense and he is lightning quick. We’ll see what kind of hitter he becomes.
Keith Law: Did I rank O’Neill higher? I’ve always been skeptical of his swing and miss, his pull-heavy approach, and his lack of defensive value. Bader, of course, has gotten way better since they drafted him – I find the improvement in his speed, which is extremely rare especially among college draftees, totally fascinating.

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: It’s looking more and more like the Mets poor record won’t cost deGrom the Cy Young…but isn’t it marginally disappointing that he probably could have won the MVP if the Mets didn’t suck?
Keith Law: There’s such a strong bias in MVP voting against pitchers I don’t think he would have won it. I think it goes to Yelich or Baez at this point.

Joe: Keith, did you ever write up the Cutch trade? What kind of players are Avelino and DePaula?
Keith Law: I didn’t, and you can infer my answer from that.

Robert: Impressions on Jake Bauers . Does he have a starting position in 2019 ?
Keith Law: Still think he has a chance to be a regular, but the lack of power – and he’s even said the Rays’ attempts to improve his launch angle screwed him up as a hitter – is a major limiting factor given his lack of defensive value. Might be a bench guy or tweener for them in 2019.

Nick: Can one of the Phillies low-minors MIF take off next year (Gamboa, Guzman, Brito)?
Keith Law: I think Luis Garcia (the SS, not the P) is going to blow right past those guys. Not a big Gamboa believer; Brito has ability but he’s not strong enough to convert that to production yet.

Patrick: I want to ask about Ryan OHearn. 1.2 war in 38 games. SSS range so what’s real and what’s a mirage about him so far?
Keith Law: It’s not real pretty but he makes very hard contact. The major-league baseball is helping him – the guy never slugged .500 anywhere in full-season ball, and now he’s over .600 in the majors? – but I think he could be a second-division regular with some patience and power despite low batting averages.

Chris: Read today: “I just seem to see modern day players age way quicker than the less-muscular, less Strength and Conditioning coached, no Staff Nutritionist players of days gone by.”

This immediately got support from other commenters, but this struck me as inherently false…it’s purely anecdotal. Am I wrong here?
Keith Law: Yes, anecdotal, and certainly counterintuitive.

Chris: Where do you think Baez lands on the NL MVP list? Like everyone else, I loooove watching him play, but it seems strange to me that he could win with such a pedestrian OBP. Am I nitpicking here, or does this put him in the 2nd tier of NL candidates?
Keith Law: No, he’s clearly in the top group of maybe a half dozen guys, because he plays critical positions and plays them well. I could easily justify putting him ahead of some guys who are a half a win (by WAR) over him because of the value of his positional versatility.

jacos: Do you see Cubs moving Schwarber, Russel and or Almora in off season, especially if they sign Harper?
Keith Law: I have no inside information on this but I get the sense they’re about done with Russell. He’s superfluous anyway.

Zac: Michael Fulmer and Daniel Norris seems to always be battling injuries, who do you feel more confident moving forward?
Keith Law: Fulmer, just because Norris’ velocity hasn’t been there this year. Still holding out hope for both guys; Norris is so athletic and has such great baseball acumen that i feel like he’ll put it together if his body allows it.

Ryan: Is it time for the Cardinals to look to trade Carson Kelly in the offseason? Seems like Knizner is close to passing him on the depth chart, if he hasn’t already, and Kelly seems stuck at AAA with Molina under contract for two more season.
Keith Law: Yes – I think they should have done so already.

Alex: Do you think your phone number or social security number could be in sequential order in the number pi?
Keith Law: Funny question. There are sites that let you search within pi, and the answer is no for mine.

Grant: I see a lot of people predicting Adell could be up by next July. Would that be rushing him in your mind?
Keith Law: Yes but to be fair 1) he’s been so much better this year than I expected, now that he’s made a few small but substantial adjustments and 2) the uberathletes like him tend to move pretty quickly.

JR: Did you consider Nimmo for players you were wrong about? IIRC, the past few years you’ve projected him as a fourth/fifth OF – do you still view him as such, or can he be an everyday guy?
Keith Law: My criticism of him has always been that he doesn’t produce vs LHP, and that is still true. He was a top 100 guy at least once for me.

Drew: The Royals are a ways away from contending. Whit is good and not young…so they should probably trade him. With his cost controlled contract, what’s that worth? Top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: Yes, they should have done so in July. I would think he’d fetch two quality prospects of some sort.

WSox Fan: This rebuild is heading nowhere isn’t it?
Keith Law: That seems rather pessimistic.
Keith Law: Also, I don’t agree.

Baseball loves gross narratives: Lots of Rays catching the A’s for the WC2 spot. I’m trying to tell people to simmer down but they won’t listen. Please talk some sense into them for me, will you?
Keith Law: It’s unlikely, but not entirely impossible.

Guest: What is the most common “missed tool or added skill” when a player over performs their minor league scouting evaluations on the big league level?
Keith Law: Hit tool or fastball command.

Tysen: Do we need to blow up the current MLB/MiLB dynamic? It’s appalling how little those guys make in a season
Keith Law: Too late. The GOP Tax Scam law pretty much ended this discussion. I don’t understand how any minor league player or anyone who is close to one could vote for a Senator or Representative who voted for that bill – voted to take the player’s fundamental rights as a laborer away.

Bobwalktheplank: I what point do the Pirates just say maybe Josh Bell isn’t that good. His hitting numbers might be a tick above average but his defense and baserunning are not good. Is their still upside?
Keith Law: There is still upside – but I think it’s fair to ask why so many Pirates hitters who have raw power haven’t shown it, with Bell at/near the top of that list.

Matt, KY: Consider this Trade: Trout to the Braves for the following: Inciate, Touki, Riley, Wright, and Anderson. Who hangs up first, Angels or Braves?
Keith Law: I saw this, and it was so fucking stupid I ignored it and went on with my life.

Jamal: Do WAR totals change? As in, if I look at a player’s WAR after the 2016 season, would it be different now?
Keith Law: No, not in the way I think you’re asking.

HH: Is Tristan McKenzie still too far away to content for the #5 spot in next year’s rotation? Or do I just think he’s young because he’s SO skinny.
Keith Law: Given his workload this year I’d try not to do that to him next spring.

AC: Luke Voit, a blip, a useful future backup, a starter, something else?
Keith Law: Nice backup.

Michael: White Sox GM Hahn hinted at a big prospect-for-prospect deal this winter. Reds seem set at 3B/SS and ChiSox have lots of OF prospects. Who says no to Senzel for Madrigal and Luis Gonzalez?
Keith Law: Reds are set at SS? I wouldn’t say so.

Tired: Is there such a thing as “catching up on sleep”?
Keith Law: According to Matthew Walker & his book Why We Sleep, no, there isn’t.

Gus Johnson: Aside from Kershaw (who will probably resign with the Dodgers?), Patrick Corbin looks like the only high-impact FA pitcher. Would you give him a Yu Darvish-type contract (6 yr/126M)?
Keith Law: I would. I agree on Kershaw, and that Corbin is the best ‘real’ FA pitcher on the market.

Lilith: Do you think Senzel could play CF? How well?
Keith Law: I’d be very, very surprised.

Andrew: Phillies are carrying 40 on their active roster, which many are calling bad for baseball. I think the concerns about pitching changes and substitutions are overblown – I doubt the casual fan really cares about pitching changes, and it really only irks those who have to cover 162 games. What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: Carrying 40 isn’t the problem. Using 33 guys a game would be a problem.

Kevin: with arm issues always a big deal why do prospects continue to pitch through the end of summer and into the fall? If they are that good shouldn’t April – August be enough?
Keith Law: Most guys who pitch in the fall are doing so because either 1) they missed time earlier in the year due to injury or suspension, or 2) the parent club is trying to make a decision on whether to protect them from rule 5 or trying to stir up trade interest.

Kace: Are guys like Chapman, Merrifield and previously Bautista unicorns or can hard work and a change of approach fix a lot of so-so players?
Keith Law: We hear about the players who do all of this and get results; we don’t hear about the dozens more who try these things and don’t improve. It’s always worth trying, but if you’re a GM or a Director of Player Development, you have to understand many attempts will fail.

Sean: Is it best the Blue Jays just do a full-on rebuild or try to rebuild on the fly? I ask simply because the attendance has taken the largest dive this year from what I’ve read, not sure how much doing a full rebuild would hurt the fanbase.
Keith Law: I thought they should rebuild last winter – trade Donaldson, at least explore the markets for Stroman and Sanchez, etc. They could still do some of that although they may have missed their prime opportunity.

Robbie: The great AL ROY debate: Does Ohtani’s innings pitched and superior bat outweigh andujar’s full season of at bats?
Keith Law: Ohtani has outproduced Andujar and Gleyber. I don’t think this is really a debate.

JR: You’ve regularly been asked about Jeff McNeil over the past few weeks, and have always rightly cautioned this is SSS. Having said that, how does an organization evaluate his time at the big leagues to date? They clearly have an opening at 2B and he’s played well (in a short time frame). Do they pencil him in for the role next season, or do they still look to add a 2B in the offseason?
Keith Law: No harm in letting a player like that – already on the roster, making no money – fill that spot next year when you’re unlikely to contend. If they were a potential playoff team, my answer would differ. At that point you don’t want to bet on a tiny sample or a fluky performance.

Ryan: There have been a bunch of articles recently regarding fixes to the service time manipulation. What would be your fix to teams keeping down clearly ready prospects?
Keith Law: One fix I proposed a few years ago, when Kris Bryant was held back to delay free agency, was to give teams a sort of right of first refusal for players who reached FA with exactly six years of service – that is, a player who made an Opening Day roster and never went back down.

Lee_Keybum: On your next periscope chat, can you do it without a shirt?
Keith Law: I’m sorry, I believe you’re looking for Alex Jones, and he is currently banned from everywhere.

Guest: Does Frankie Montas have the secondary stuff to remain as a starter?
Keith Law: I do not think so.

Phil : I am reading your book and I was wondering about pitch framing as a learned skill. Do some organizations focus on teaching it or do they just try to identify the best and acquire them?
Keith Law: Several do try to teach it.

Alex: RE: Ellison v. Kavanaugh- I agree that Ellison’s actions appear to have been repugnant and should be disqualifying from a career in public life, but as a candidate for public office (Minnesota AG) the voters have an opportunity to make their own decision on his suitability for the position he seeks (and, yes, the DNC should turf him out). DC Republicans are doing everything in their power to confirm Kavanaugh before the midterms, and he isn’t even personally on the ballot anywhere.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s a separate question, and of course I think Kavanaugh should be rejected.

Chris: Thanks for your review of Florida. I had gotten up to Above and Below when I saw in your newsletter you were reading the book. I had to put it down for a while after A and B, but I did not know the last story sees the return of the character from the first.
Keith Law: I was surprised how much the stories affected me when Groff’s voice is somewhat distant from her own characters.

Moe Mentum: Odubel Herrera 2019 : Phillies starter, Phillies bench player, or new team? We’ve seen flashes of talent, but his 2018 performance doesn’t seem commensurate with his salary. And he might not fit the Kapler vision. Should (can?) Klentak do something? Is Roman Quinn being groomed to start in CF next season?
Keith Law: He’s making $5 million next year. If he literally shows up to Citizens Bank Park on time on game days, he’ll be worth more than that. And Quinn has zero history of staying healthy – I wouldn’t bet on him for any regular role.

Nat: Who is the one hitter and one pitcher you are most looking forward to seeing in the AFL?
Keith Law: Luis Robert and Nate Pearson.

Anthony: If Colorado misses the playoffs, should they buy, sell or hold this offseason?
Keith Law: Hold/buy. Unless they make the organizational decision to trade Arenado, which I’m not advocating or opposing here, there’s no point to a rebuild. Either you do it all the way, including him, or you do nothing.

Eric: Do you think the Jays really held Alford down for two weeks at the end of the AAA season for service time reasons? Any thoughts of what he might be for the Jays going forward?
Keith Law: They held Vlad down for service time reasons. Why would we be surprised that they’d do this to another player? Alford has above-average regular upside but 1) his power has never translated into games 2) he gets hurt a lot and 3) he’s failed to perform in two of the last three years. There’s plenty of reason to question his eventual role & upside, even though he has been a top 50 prospect in the past.

Anthony: With the slider instead of the changeup, could Taillon be a 1/2 starter or is he going to have too much trouble with LHH?
Keith Law: It’s rare but not impossible for a pitcher to use a pitch like his slider (which is hard like a cutter) to get opposite-side hitters out. I’m just generally a Taillon fan anyway so I am inclined to think he can do it.

John: If you would the Cardinals how would you approach this off-season? See what Carlos Martinez could fetch and sign a starter? Pursue the big bats? Clear up the 2B/3B logjam and sign a real SS?
Keith Law: I think they have plenty of starters; really I look at their core and see a potential playoff team for 2019, although with Carpenter turning 33 in November they need to plan for a lineup without his production in the near future.

JR: As a Mets fan, I know the smart play is to shop deGrom, Thor and/or Wheeler this offseason, but man, aren’t those the types of starters to build around? Sucks to be a small market team in a big market.
Keith Law: You shop them all and see what you get; I doubt the market will offer huge returns for all three.

Sean: I have heard you say that Vlad Jr could be the next Big Papi in terms of position and ability to consistently hit for average and power. How long of a leash would you give him at 3B if you were the Jays next year?
Keith Law: I’ve seen him twice this year and expect to see him again in the AFL, but at this point, I don’t see any chance that body or lack of range works at third. Just DH him and tell him to go hit .360 with 40 bombs.

Dr. Bob: From an article by Jonah Keri, it appears that the Blue Jays are about to go with a youth movement. Don’t you need a better overall farm system to do that? Or is having a few top prospects enough?
Keith Law: They seem to believe they have a better farm system than they actually do.

Matt: Blake Rutherford seemed to make some progress offensively this season, but finished with an OPS under .800. Do you think he hits for enough power to project as a starting corner OF?
Keith Law: No – there’s no impact there and a corner bat has to have that.

Alex: How would you rate Klentak at this point? Should Phillies fans be optimistic? Seems like he’s been pretty hit/miss on player evaluations.
Keith Law: Think he’s done well everywhere but with first-round picks – although Randolph predates him. They haven’t hit on any of their last three prior to Bohm.

Rising tides: Isn’t service time manipulation really a symptom of MLBPA throwing 1-3yr service time players under the bus creating a huge pay inequality at the MLB level?
Keith Law: The union has long focused on free agency and the trickle-down effect it has on arbitration, but the minimum salary has gone up by nearly 70% in the last few CBAs, so they haven’t ignored 0-3 guys – they just might have undersold them.

Steven: Are we seeing the days of the 4th and 5th starter going by the wayside? Honestly, it seems like a much better strategy to let your 2 or 3 best pitchers go as deep into games as they can, while breaking up the other 2 games among your pen.
Keith Law: Nothing in baseball is permanent, but if you’re asking whether more teams will do bullpen days in 2019-20, I’d say yes, definitely.

Anthony: If you’re Counsell, how do you manage a one game playoff without a true ace? Throw out your best starter and be aggressive about bringing in Hader/Jeffress for possible multiple inning appearances?
Keith Law: Yeah, you plan on using Hader for 9 outs and go from there. Hell, what about starting him, knowing he’s probably out by the 4th? Other than one likely out when he bats, is there a downside I’m not considering?

Jake: Adalberto Mondesi has played very well over the last 50 games, do you see an All-star upside for this guy or will his low OBP always limit what he can be? The tools are there!
Keith Law: Low OBP really limits his ceiling – but Rougned Odor isn’t a dissimilar player and suddenly found religion at the plate this year.

Bench: Angels Luis Rengifo seems to come out of nowhere. Is he in their top 5 next year? Top 20 in MLB as well?
Keith Law: Nice pickup in the Cron deal, but not in their top 5, and I assume top 20 was a typo.

Jake: Thoughts on MJ Melendez, and was he projected to his for this much power?
Keith Law: Still very TBD on the bat. Had power in HS – fairly sure I wrote that about him, and I saw him destroy a ball when I went to his school that March. Would really like to see him catch, as he was very athletic and agile back there but almost too high energy.

Chad: When will you be in Arizona for the Fall League? Who will you be watching? Which new restaurant will you try?
Keith Law: Second week, I watch everybody, and I have a list of new restaurants. I did get to Roland’s over Labor Day weekend and it was excellent.

Jim Nantz: Are their enough pitchers to fill out 2 additional teams, if there’s expansion, without seriously diluting the product?
Keith Law: Yes.

JR: Is there any evidence that all the steps teams are taking to protect pitchers arms is working? Seems like a bunch of pitchers still end up needing TJ surgery, despite all the steps teams take. As awful as this sounds, do you think teams will start to treat pitchers the way NFL does with running backs? Realize most will only have a few good/great years, bring them up to the majors faster and just throw them as much as they can in the 6 years of control they have and hope for the best and then let them go (or trade them in year 4/5 if on a non-contender)?
Keith Law: My understanding is that although we’ve cut excessive workloads, which is probably the reason catastrophic shoulder injuries are way down, pitchers throwing as hard as they can just about all the time is still a big factor in UCL tears, and that hasn’t changed.

Chris: Imagine if the Mets let Dom Smith play 1B all year? Maybe he would have gotten the required ABs for a young player to develop and grow like, say, Amed Rosario! Yeeeeeeeesh. Should Mets just pick one of Smith or Alonso moving fwd?
Keith Law: Yes, they should commit to one and shop the other. If that means giving up on Smith, knowing he could very well go somewhere else and perform, so be it. But this is not how you develop a young player.

Jordan: Where would you rank the Mets farm system going into next season? Mid-tier? Seems like almost all their top-20 guys had terrific seasons.
Keith Law: Above the median. Good chance they’ll be top ten. Most of their big names had great years, they landed a stud in Kelenic, their second-rounder Woods-Richardson looked better in pro ball than in the spring, and they had some pop-up guys like Newton establish themselves as prospects too. I get Mets fans on Twitter telling me how bad they think the farm is, but they’re totally wrong. They’ve drafted well, consistently, and hit on some international guys too.

John: is it just me, or do you think one of the biggest issues facing society today is how little people seem to grasp the concept of nuance? not even related to a single issue. people don’t understand how free speech works, and in the case of kavanaugh, they dont understand this isnt a criminal trial, but a high profile job application. is nuance just too difficult to grasp/teach?
Keith Law: I feel like in any argument there’s a reach for a quick answer – oh, don’t you believe in due process? what about freedom of speech, huh? – that sounds good even if it doesn’t apply to the situation. It’s about winning the debate, or just dunking on someone. I’m sure I fall prey to this too.

Joe: You (and a lot of others) weren’t high on Brandon Lowe going into this year. Has anything changed for him? What kind of future does he have?
Keith Law: I know scouts who NP’d him in 2016. I don’t love the swing – what I’ve seen on TV, which isn’t a great angle – and am curious to see whether he can still hit for power without striking out like crazy.

Ridley Kemp: I get most of my book recommendations from Austin’s robust book store scene (I’m very lucky in that regard), from Warren Ellis, and from, um…you. Where you get your recs from, or what typically makes you decide to select a particular book?
Keith Law: I scan a lot of best-of lists, I get recs all the time from friends and readers, and I like to prowl indie bookstores and see what catches my eye.

Jack: Brayan Rocchio – have you seen him? What are your thoughts
Keith Law: I haven’t yet but all the reports I have are glowing.

Ted: I realize you’re not a big college football fan, but do you have any thoughts on Nick Bofa’s injury?
Keith Law: Yeah, sounds like the damage to his ligma is serious.

Zac: In regards to minor league pay, who owns the minor league teams are most of them owned by the major league owner or are most of them owned by people not related to their parent club
Keith Law: Most are independently owned, and when they sell, their values keep increasing. That wouldn’t happen if these teams were actually losing money as some doofuses tried to tell me on the twitters yesterday.

Mike: Have you been surprised at how quickly Ronald Acuña Jr.’s power has come this year? He’s on a 42 home run pace over 162 games as a 20 year old.
Keith Law: The major league baseball is different than the minor league one – Meredith Wills now has two pieces up on The Athletic, one just went up this week, explaining why. Everyone is hitting for more power in the majors.

Felix: I’ve read your list. My girlfriend and I really enjoy playing Ticket to Ride. What’s your favorite 2 player board game? What should we try next?
Keith Law: Jaipur.

Russell : Do you think Everson Pereira will be ready to start 2019 in Low A ?
Keith Law: Possibly but he barely played this summer due to injuries.

Marco: in your answer about Puig, you referenced his “listed age”. Why the qualifier? Is there evidence he could be older than 27?
Keith Law: Cuban players’ ages are all a little dubious, because (as far as I’ve been told) we have little/no access to records from there. I’ve mentioned that on a few Cuban players before.

Tracy: I’m reading The Castle by Kafka. I’m halfway through but it’s so boring I’m ready to dump it and move on. Can I get your blessing?
Keith Law: Yes. Life is too short to read bad books.

Chris: May we have a short review of Florida…the state?
Keith Law: America’s armpit. No, look at it – it’s rather axillary in shape, right?

Tim: You really don’t think the Mets are at least a *potential* playoff team next year if they can run deGrom-Syndergaard-Wheeler-Matz out there as their front 4?
Keith Law: How many starts you think you’re getting from that quartet?

Chris: Do you think Max Kepler has more to offer or is he what he is at this point?
Keith Law: Still expecting more. Again, maybe I’m just stubborn.

Christopher: With Brandon Morrow out, I keep hearing radio and tv analysts lamenting the lack of “closer” in the Cubs rotation for the playoffs. “Closer” this, and “closer” that. Can’t the Cubs just plug their best-available pitcher in depending on the inning/situation, or am I simplifying this too much? I didn’t realize that “closer” was a separate roster spot or position on the field.
Keith Law: They can and they will, or at least they’ll try to, although I think Maddon’s bullpen management has been questionable.

JT: What’s David Bote’s future? And is it with the Cubs or elsewhere?
Keith Law: If they keep him as a UT he’d be outstanding, but he could probably be a second-division starter at 2b.

MJ: Thoughts on Billy McKinney going forward? He’s been impressive for the Jays since the trade.
Keith Law: Extra OF tops.

Chris Bianco : Why were so many troglodytes upset by Pizzeria Bianco topping your pizza list?
Keith Law: Mostly because they’d never tried it. My favorite troglodyte was the one who asked me, a NY native who regularly writes about going to games in Trenton and Lakewood, if I’d ever BEEN to New Jersey.
Keith Law: I wanted to say “yeah, that’s where we New Yorkers sent our garbage,” but that seemed a little mean.

Steve: Don Welke passed away – you talk to him much?
Keith Law: I didn’t see that till just now, but I did, and I always enjoyed listening to him. He was smart, funny, played the clown a little bit but I always thought he was trying to disarm people. He had something like 50 years in the game, and a wealth of knowledge and memories to share. What a terrible loss for all of us in the sport.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat – thank you so much for joining me, and for all of your questions, as always. I’ll be back next week to do this again; my next column will be my postseason award picks, and I think it’ll run on Thursday. Thanks again.

My Prospect of the Year column is up for Insiders/ESPN+ subscribers, while my review of the board game Disney’s Villainous is up over at Paste.

Keith Law: I’ve got no time for private consultations. Klawchat.

PhillyJake: Vlad Guerrero, Jr. as your minor league player of the year? Why, he didn’t even warrant a September call up! <>
Keith Law: Exactly. Meanwhile the Blue Jays’ VP is subtweeting me and making up alternative facts about other sites’ rankings to distract everyone from the manipulation of Vlad’s service time. Baseball fever, baby!

Pete Alonso: Obviously I wasn’t going to unseat Vlad, but no mention of me at all in your writeup? First the Wilpons give me the shaft, now you! Explain yourself.
Keith Law: A .355 OBP and not low strikeout rate in an extreme hitters’ park doesn’t get you on the list.

Rowland’s Office: Wouldn’t the Braves be better off deploying Touki as a multi-inning weapon out of the ‘pen than as a 6th starter, his current role? Going forward, does he profile better as starter or reliever? Same Q on Bryse Wilson. Really hoping they dont opt to spend big on Kimbrel instead.
Keith Law: Both absolutely profile as starters. Three-pitch guys with command and good deliveries.

Dan: You have an NL ROY ballet. Soto or Acuna. Go.
Keith Law: I don’t have an NL ROY ballot (or ballet), and won’t give an answer to that until we’re right near the end of the season.

Dave: Are you ok with Lewis and Kirilloff missing the AFL?
Keith Law: They didn’t miss it – they weren’t chosen, probably because both played full seasons already.

Nick L: Crack Shack was…..just ok. Am I crazy?
Keith Law: I’ve never had a meal there (at the original) that was less than outstanding.

Jay: Upside for Anderson Tejeda?
Keith Law: He could be a star if everything clicks – certainly has the tools for it, but isn’t close to that yet.

addoeh: Great job yesterday with Skating Away On The Thin Ice of a New Day! Do you take requests? Maybe Pink Floyd’s Wish You Were Here?
Keith Law: Thanks! I don’t know if I’ll play again on Periscope but if I do I’ll keep that in mind (certainly one of the first songs I learned on guitar back in the late 80s).

Nick L: Willson Contreras is not slugging at all. Think this is a permanent issue?
Keith Law: I do not.

Bill G: Hi Keith. Thanks for answering my question a couple weeks ago regarding divisional structure when MLB expands to 32 teams. A follow up question – would you prefer radical geographical alignment or a more traditional approach, maintaining historical AL/NL structures? Thanks!
Keith Law: No interest in geographical realignment. This isn’t the NBA.

Eric: What did you think of J.P. Martinez’s campaign with Spokane?
Keith Law: For a 22-year-old, it was not impressive at all. You have to hope this is just rust from not playing for a little while after he defected.

Barbeach: Hope you had a great summer. Are either Bird or Voit the long term answer at 1B for the Yankees? Or should their off season plans include finding the answer?
Keith Law: Neither is the answer there.

Aaron C.: We know Oreos are your “guilty pleasure” food, but in your younger, pre-SABR days, who was your guilty pleasure as a ballplayer? Mine will always be Deion Sanders – a mediocre player who was a joy to watch (for me).
Keith Law: I loved guys who could run. Didn’t matter if they were good. Gary Pettis. Hell, Gary Redus. And the guys who could run and were good, like Rickey, Raines, or healthy Eric Davis – those were my favorites.

Aaron C.: Am I mistaken or is this traditionally the time of year when you write your annual “who I got wrong” column? Not trolling at all, but it one of my faves. (I swear I’m not trolling.)
Keith Law: I think that’s on the calendar for next Thursday.

Mark: At what point does Sandy Leon’s total black hole in the Red Sox lineup, outweigh the love he gets from the pitching staff ?
Keith Law: I feel like he’s a modern example of Nichols’ Law of Catcher Defense: If a catcher can’t hit, people will just assume his defense is tremendous.

Odubel: Can Kopech still be a #1/#2? I thought he looked really great up here, his fastball had a great spin rate. What a shame.
Keith Law: If he comes back 100%, sure.

Jeff: Hi Keith – I saw that you recognized Mike King as a runner up for your prospect of the year but note that he is “probably not a starter in the long run.” He just turned 23, and has made significant improvements in the last year. What would you need to see from him next year to suggest that he could be a 4 or 5 starter?
Keith Law: Given the delivery, I don’t see it at all. His age and those ‘improvements’ (I’m not sure what those would be) are not factors.

Bmosc: Our President is a pathological liar, a narcissist, and more than likely a sociopath. How are so many people ok with that?!
Keith Law: Because he’ll lower their taxes and pack the courts with theocrats.

Jeff: Should the Yankees sign Manny Machado or stick with Didi at SS and Andujar at 3B?
Keith Law: Machado is clearly an upgrade. The question I would have is whether he’s a $30 million upgrade, and I don’t think that he clearly is.

Bob : Do you believe Neidert will be one of the starting pitchers for Miami in 2019?
Keith Law: Yes. Also, so will you.

Wally: Resending: if you are Nats GM and this offseason you can either (1) re-sign Harper or (2) extend Rendon, sign Grandal and sign morton, which would you do?
Keith Law: The latter is the better use of their funds, since they have Robles to fill the vacant OF spot (although I’m not a big Grandal fan).

Jo-Nathan: Should Cleveland think about selling high on Triston McKenzie? He had forearm soreness to start the year then pitched 90 innings and was shut down due to fatigue. If he can’t gain weight (listed at 165 lbs at 6’5) I cant see how he can ever hold up over a full season in the majors.
Keith Law: I don’t know that his weight is necessarily the issue – and isn’t this is first bout of any arm trouble? I could be wrong on the latter but I don’t remember him getting hurt before.

Hank: In light of Alex Bregman’s breakout and his taking the job of Astros’ key offensive piece, do you see this season as an outlier or predictive of his future value? Long term is he a better bet than Correa?
Keith Law: I think he’s entirely for real – although his power spike, like so many, is probably more a function of the baseball than swing changes or strength.

Darin: Why do you disagree with my scouting of minor league stats for my favorite prospect?
Keith Law: Because I hate your favorite team.

Garrett: Did you think Trevor Story would be this good? Also is this his career year or can we expect this from him going forward?
Keith Law: I think this is a career year, and I don’t think he’s close to the same player if he’s not a Rockie. His career K% is *down* to 30.5%, and that’s without facing better breaking stuff or even more movement on fastballs while he’s home.

SeanE: If you are the Pirates what do you do at 2b and SS next year. Can’t see Mercer or Harrison coming back. Do you go with the Seinfeld boys Kramer and Newman. Do you give Frazier a shot at 2b?
Keith Law: I’d go with the Seinfeld tandem.

Doc: Keith, any thoughts on the shake-up in Phils’ minor league department? Jordan out, several hitting coaches fired.
Keith Law: Jordan left – he wasn’t fired.

Nick: When can we expect your early 2019 draft rankings? Who are looking like the top talents?
Keith Law: Probably not until the spring because the summer stuff was so unimpressive, especially on the college side.

Andrew: Is this PR death total comment the worst of all bad DJT comments? Sheesh.
Keith Law: “Very fine people” will be impossible to top, but yes, it’s terrible, and already there are toadies lapping it up on social media.

Jay: He won’t win it, but should Brad Keller be getting some consideration for RoY?
Keith Law: No.

Jordan: Do you see Justin Dunn as a guy who can be a 2-3 starter at the big league level?
Keith Law: I do.

Sandy Kazmir: What broad sweeping changes will we see enacted if the Rays win 90+ games and fail to make the postseason? Same question, but switch Rays to Yankees?
Keith Law: None … and none. GMAFB.

thatssotaguchi: Do you enjoy My Fair Lady or are you Satan?
Keith Law: I love old school musicals, and I’ll watch anything with Audrey Hepburn in it.

Ghost of Guy Fieri: Looking for a good knife sharpener that won’t break the bank, any suggestions?
Keith Law: I recommended one in my gift guide for cooks last November.

17 year old, Wander Franco: How soon until I’m the number one prospect in baseball?
Keith Law: You might be a few graduations away from that.

Gus Johnson: Does JP Crawford need to get away from the Phillies to fulfill his potential?
Keith Law: That is possible, although I couldn’t say for sure.

Craig: Is Mark Shapiro the first executive to (essentially) publicly call you “fake news”?
Keith Law: No, but it never ceases to amaze me when executives do that. I don’t think it works out well for them in the end.

Robbie: Is David Fletcher of the angels a starting 2B? Seems more like a bench guy with the lack of power.
Keith Law: Bench guy due to (wait for it) the lack of power.

SeanE: Are you sold on Musgrove as a starting pitcher? Has had a pretty solid year. What is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Fifth starter, sure. More, I wouldn’t expect.

Marty: Are we allowed to talk to you at the AFL?
Keith Law: Is … is there something I don’t know about? Like a force field around me or something? Yes, of course you can. I’ll nearly always be at each game a little early anyway, which is the best time to catch me.

Chris: Dodgers still win the West?
Keith Law: With the Rockies up 2 and only ~15 games left, you would have to bet on them over any other single team.

Adam: You mentioned Paddack has nothing more to gain from the minors in your newest post. What ceiling do you think he has? #2 starter? Ace if he develops his curve?
Keith Law: #2 starter, but I don’t think he’s developing that curve. That’s very rarely a pitch that gets better with development.

leprekhan: With the extra pick from not signing Carter Stewart, the Braves are at least in a position to make some noise in the 2019 draft. Overall, how deep does the 2019 draft class look and do you think the Braves could get a comparable talent with their compensation pick?
Keith Law: Worse, and no. I had Stewart #2 in the class. This class is worse and the odds are they won’t get the #2 talent picking 9th.

TC: Rosario’s raised his slash line from .230/.274/.346 to .253/.294/.386 since your snark comment to me on Aug. 9. Looks like he’s on the upswing! Thanks for still believing in him!
Keith Law: Players don’t develop on our timetables. Sometimes patience is rewarded. Sometimes patience just ends up looking like obstinacy.

Jd: Love your work. How’s the migraine today? Should the Sox have called up feltman? Will their bullpen and their inability to throw strikes haunt them in the playoffs?
Keith Law: Better today, thank you. Three hour nap yesterday + two Aleve + extra caffeine did it. I think you draft a guy like Feltman high because you intend to call him up, even if it’s just to start in mop-up work.

Michael: Is Daz Cameron a future everyday OF?
Keith Law: For sure.

Danny: Piggybacking on your article, are Deivi or King realistic rotation candidates next year or is the answer these guys are not really starters but they could be reliever options next year?
Keith Law: Deivi is a starter but has one career AA start. Next year is probably optimistic. King is very unlikely to be a starter.

Steve: Keith great chats. Numerous anonymous scouts have comped Jared Kelenic to a young Mike Trout. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: I love Kelenic but at his age Trout was in AA and about 280 days from his major league debut.

Dan: Dylan Cease no mention today, is his fastball overpowering and still lacking secondaries. I’m happy he made it all year.
Keith Law: Today’s column was the best performing prospects, not the best prospects. Two different things.

Shiraz: Hey Keith, would you hold Blake Snell’s innings against him if you were voting for Cy Young? Is 180 IP the new 200?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t vote for Snell over Sale, certainly. The lower IP total matters in that it’s less production – the more you pitch, as long as you’re above replacement-level, the more value you deliver to your team. Snell doesn’t top Sale in either variation of WAR, and I think it’s fair to assume at least some of his low BABIP is good defense/luck.

Doc: Who will get a larger free agent contract, Harper or Machado?
Keith Law: Machado is my guess.

William: Who do you believe is the leader in the NL MVP race?
Keith Law: A pitcher. Nobody wants to hear that, though.

Louis: What’s wrong, if anything, with Adam Duvall?
Keith Law: He was never really good.

Jesse: Will you be able to any book events at changing hands during AFL?
Keith Law: I didn’t ask because the book will be a year and a half old at that point, but if you have a copy at a game I will gladly sign it for you.

Joe: You’re in charge of the Giants. What’s your offseason look like?
Keith Law: That depends on ownership, but I think this is a rebuild situation, and that includes exploring the market for Bumgarner.

Guest: Have you played or seen the board game
Sol: Last Days of a Star? I played it for the first time last night and I’m intrigued by the mechanics, theme, and what seems like high replayability.
Keith Law: I have not. It appears to be out of print at the moment.

Preston : Cubs have right to be upset about 30 days in a row of scheduled games, right? That said, Brewers are better, healthier team.
Keith Law: Cubs have that right, yes. I do not agree the Brewers are a better team.

Will B.: A lot of talk this summer about Jered Kelenic’s successful first pro season. However did you get a chance to see fellow classmate Alek Thomas start as well? Looking like in 10years he might be the best OF from that class…
Keith Law: I was very high on Thomas out of the draft, and said the Dbacks got a first-round talent, but I think you’re reading way too much into short-season stats with that statement.

Matt: Your colleague Michael Wilbon said it would be “Garbage” if Jacob DeGrom won the Cy Young. I think he should be MVP. What do you think?
Keith Law: I think you’re much more on the ball than my colleague, who apparently hasn’t read Smart Baseball.

Rod: Any chance that MacKenzie Gore debuts next season?
Keith Law: I can’t see a scenario where that happens.

John: Do you have a solution for service time manipulation? I see why teams do it what is the best way to fix it.
Keith Law: I’ve suggested a one-year right of first refusal option for players who reach free agency with 6.000 (six years, zero days) of service, to try to encourage teams to call up the Vlad Jr’s and the Bryants for Opening Day, at least. I have seen suggestions of age-based free agency as well, although I think that would primarily help college draftees, not the 19-year-old wunderkinds like Vlad Jr is now or Wander Franco will be in two years.

Bob: Keith – you mention guys that could run – Willie McGee. I am not sure I saw anybody faster on a triple the part from 1st to 3rd. As for the Padres – is Mejia’s bat good for a catcher or all positions – meaning he can find a new spot if Hedges sticks at C and his bat still has value say in OF?
Keith Law: Hedges is just not a good enough hitter to push Mejia off to another position.

Jason : With talk of his possible retirement, is Joe Mayer a HOF player? Is he if he stayed at catcher?
Keith Law: If he retires now, he’s going to be a borderline case who struggles on the ballot because his traditional numbers don’t add up and because he doesn’t ‘feel’ like a HoFer, while folks like me or Jay Jaffe may end up banging the drum for him when he pulls in 21% of the vote in year one.

Jeremy: Following up on Nick L’s question. It’s looking likely that only 1 Cub is going finish the year with 30HRs. Less than you would have predicted right? What do you think is causing the power outage?
Keith Law: Less than I would have predicted, not sure it’s anything other than randomness.

Sam: As an A’s fan, I desperately want to expect Ramon Laureano to keep being this good. I think you pegged him as more of a 4th outfielder when he was traded. Is that still your read?
Keith Law: I really liked him out of AFL 2016, then the Astros changed his swing and he stunk. Fourth OF was a bit of a solomonic answer – I thought he had good tools, but when a guy doesn’t hit for a full year in the high minors, it’s hard to talk about him as a regular. I’d still say fourth OF, but at least now we can have a discussion of whether he’s more, given his tools and now some performance.

Jay: Been playing Small World with my kids. What a fantastic game. Do you recommend any of the expansions?
Keith Law: Yes – we use two, one of which is called (I think) the Ladies of Small World and has some clever new races that really alter the way you play.

Erick Fedde: Am I at least a # 4 starter going forward?
Keith Law: I could buy a #4. I wouldn’t bet on more; still pretty homer-prone, secondary stuff has never been good enough for me to call him league-average.

Andy : With the way the Braves have been aggressive with promotions, do you think there is a chance Pache makes the majors at some point next year? He seemed to make significant improvements in his offense.
Keith Law: That I could see, although if Inciarte is still around there may not be a logical place for him.

Michael: Hi Keith, of the Tigers top pitching prospects (Mize, Manning, Burrows, Perez, Faedo), which, if any, do you see destined for the bullpen?
Keith Law: Faedo and Perez have the highest relief risk of the group. Mize has the least.

Del: Best pumpkin related food or drink?
Keith Law: Pumpkin pie. Obviously.

Andy: Bobby Dalbec possible 50 FV? Or too much chase and swing and miss?
Keith Law: That’s an average regular. I can’t see that with a K rate above 1/3 given his age.

thatssotaguchi: Do you think illegalizing birth control would be enough to get the silent majority to get off their asses and vote in an election? I used to think so but now I’m not sure.
Keith Law: I would hope so, but apparently there are a lot of people in this country who want women they don’t even know to have zero right to control their own reproduction.

Marple: Do you think Griffin Canning can be a part of the Angels rotation next year and what is his long term upside?
Keith Law: I could see that if he’s healthy. Mid-rotation starter?

Tom: When does Yusniel Diaz make it to the majors, and whats his upside looking like?
Keith Law: Thought he might get called up this month. Everyday RF.

Jesse B: Can Myles Straw be an everyday CF who bats .250 with 60sbs?
Keith Law: So little power I don’t see an everyday player.

Michael: Is Alex Faedo’s drop in velocity this season something to worry about?
Keith Law: He wasn’t throwing as hard as reported as a college junior. I think this is just what he is.

TP: Which Padres arms currently in the minors will be in their rotation in 2019?
Keith Law: I assume Nix, Paddack, and Logan Allen are in the 2019 rotation for most/all of the year. Morejon should get there later in the year, as should Baez.

Oren: Jameson Taillon seems like he took a strong step forward this year. Is there anymore ceiling for him or is this right around where you expect him?
Keith Law: This is pretty close. He’s really come a long way given all of the health issues he’s faced. Great guy to root for.

Bob: The John Henry owned Boston Globe wrote an article about how deep the Sox are in the lower levels of the minors. PR move or legit?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with that. I think their system is better than generally claimed (it’s not a bottom 3 or bottom 5 system), but they have had a lot of significant prospects get hurt. Still keeping my eye on Scherff as a breakout candidate.

Andrew: Love the chats (and the periscope yesterday), thanks for doing these. Is Johan Camargo a 3+ WAR/yr. player going forward? If no, why not?
Keith Law: I’d take the under on that too. Add him to the list of guys who had no power until he got to hit with the MLB baseball.

Juan: With hindsight was the Quintana trade a smart one for the Cubs or did they get fleeced?
Keith Law: Smart one. They knew what they were paying, but Q was, at the time, one of the top 5 pitchers in the AL.

Gary : Time to really start talking about Jeff McNeil? Do small sample sizes (3/4 of a season) matter less when you’re talking about guys who made major swing changes/adjustments?
Keith Law: He hasn’t played 3/4 of a season. He’s played about five weeks.

ScottyD in Downingtown: Kiriloff starts 2019 at AA? Would a mid-2020 ETA in Minnesota be accurate?
Keith Law: That’s probably right – although really, he might be ready next September, and we’re all arguing about service time manipulation again.

JP: Thoughts on sites nuking their comment sections (ESPN, RAB). I know they are mostly cesspools, but there are some communties that develop.
Keith Law: Moderation is probably impossible. If you’re not willing to block or ban people fairly quickly, the least common denominator will generally win out.

Ryan: Keith – you were notably not on the Moncada hype train before his debut. At this stage, how much more can he realistically become? Thank you
Keith Law: I said on Periscope yesterday that I think he’ll have above-average years and below-average years, rather than settling in at one level of production.

Adam: I don’t understand the use of the opener. Why not pitch a starter twice through the order then go to the bullpen. What does getting the first three outs with a bullpen arm really add?
Keith Law: Because those first three outs tend to be three of the best hitters in the opponent’s lineup.

Devon: Keith, do you see Eloy as the top offensive prospect in the game now?
Keith Law: No, that would be Vlad.

Oscar: What’s a good boardgame for a large group of people (4-8) that’s relatively easy to pick up?
Keith Law: Citadels, Sushi Go, maybe 7 Wonders. If you want something more party game-ish, One Night Ultimate Werewolf or its offshoot Werewords.

Anthony: Any of Detroit’s pitching prospects beyond Mize you’re confident can start?
Keith Law: Burrows can start but may not have huge upside. Manning can start, with work to do on command and secondaries, but he’s around the plate again and still 91-95.

Franknbeans: Luis Patino sure looked good this year. Do you still have him far down the list in San Diego?
Keith Law: He’s exciting but young and kind of small to start. I don’t know where he is offhand on their list but I wouldn’t put him over Tatis, Gore, Mejia, Paddack, Morejon, Baez.

David: Hi KLaw! Would love to buy you a beer (or just say “hi”) at AFL. When do you plan on heading out there?
Keith Law: Looking at week 2. They’re only playing 4 days of games in week one, which means I get just 8 games rather than 10, because of that stupid (and when I say stupid, I mean STUPID) “hitting challenge” that nobody likes.

JG: Did you have a problem with the Donaldson deal?
Keith Law: Yeah, my problem is that the Jays didn’t get enough back.

Anthony: What do you make of Pivetta? His stuff and strikeouts look really good, but maybe he’s got terrible in-zone command?
Keith Law: LHB kill him, because he has no CH or split to get them out.

BK: I’m struggling with WAR. I get that its a stat that is generally good at approximating but it seems like it’s the answer now to certain questions. where I struggle is defense, I can’t understand for example how Cain is worth nearly 2x Arenado or 3x Baez.
Keith Law: I’m not seeing where Cain’s WAR is twice Arenado’s, or even just his defense is.

Jeff: Has your opinion about Reynaldo Lopez changed this year? Fairly small sample, but he’s looked really good lately.
Keith Law: 4.85 FIP this year sounds about right.

Big Tawn: Does Byron Buxton need a change of scenery for his bat to pan out? Can he realistically be a 50 hitter with 50 power?
Keith Law: I think he can be that guy, but I don’t know if he needs a change of scenery, or just, you know, major league at bats.

Kyle: Which is more likely? Keuchel resigned or Josh James being a fixture in the rotation?
Keith Law: Keuchel re-signing seems more likely. James has a tremendous arm, earned a mention in my piece today, but there’s reliever risk there due to the delivery.

Patrick: Any thoughts on the Lorenzo Cain (non)MVP candidacy?
Keith Law: I must have missed something on Brewers Twitter because I thought Cain was clearly a candidate.

Brent : Not to be that guy, but in your post today you mention Cease as playing for ATL and not CWS.
Keith Law: Probably an editor’s mistake. I just send in the file, man. I don’t post it.

Matt: Are Mauer and McCutchen and David Wright HOF players to you? I heard Buster talk about them on the podcast. Just curious.
Keith Law: Mauer will be close. The others I think are on the outside.

JR: Next time someone argues that holding a top prospect down is smart because you will get an extra year of control in 2025, you should suggest they go look at the opening day roster for their favorite team from seven years ago. At best, they might have 5-6 guys still on the current roster. Between injuries, trades, lack of development, regression, getting better players in your system, etc. rosters just turn over so play to develop top talent and win now and instead of 7 years from now. Also, I would argue calling a top prospect up in Sep and letting them get their feet wet is a better intro to the Show then pushing them back a couple weeks in April because they “aren’t ready” They would be ready if you called them up last Sep.
Keith Law: I think a big problem with the “we have to get that extra year of control!” mentality is that fans don’t adequately discount future production. You know where your team is right now, but you have absolutely no idea where your team will be in seven years. We can talk about windows of contention, but we don’t know how long any one window will last. It’s a delusion to think that we know right now where the team will be 7 or even 5 years down the road, and whether the added cost to retain the player will make sense for the club or not. Meanwhile, that prospect might be worth an extra win or more next year, when maybe you’re contending and could use the boost.

Adam: #PadresTwitter is currently ranking Paddack and Patiño ahead of Mackenzie Gore on their team’s prospect lists. Is there a legitimate argument to be made that this is the case or is this just putting too much emphasis on results?
Keith Law: Way too much emphasis on results.

Bill: JaCoby Jones is a lousy hitter but an excellent fielder. If you are the Tigers, can you look the other way on his bat given the number of runs he’s reportedly saves with his glove?
Keith Law: I think he’s just a bench piece, and not even a great one at that.

Rod: Is it possible the Braves win the World Series?
Keith Law: Sure. Any team that makes the playoffs can win, regardless of whether they’re the best playoff team or the worst.

Dr. Bob: Now that your guitar secret is out, can we add guitars to food, politics, games, and music to the chat? I’ve always thought that Skating Away could be done by fingerpicking, but that was never Ian Anderson’s style.
Keith Law: I almost never play anything by fingerpicking. It’s just never been as comfortable for me. I only do it if the song can’t be played any other way.

Jim: I know you were high on Logan Warmoth during the draft. What kind of upside do you think he has?
Keith Law: I was, and then he slugged .317 in high-A this year. Welp.

Matt: Thoughts on Ross Adolph, outfielder in the Mets system? Named Brooklyn’s MVP, any chance he could carve out a role in the big leagues?
Keith Law: He’s 21 and had a .348 OBP in short-season. Way too old for the level.

Robert: How difficult has it been to assess Luis Robert given his lack of playing time and injuries? I keep hearing that it is difficult to evaluate power when a player has had hand/wrist injuries. Is there anything you could see that would suggest the power would come once he is fully healed?
Keith Law: He might be the AFL guy I most want to see, because I keep missing him and he just hasn’t played that much, period.

Migraine Sufferer: As a fellow migrainee, what would you do if you were allergic to NSAIDs?
Keith Law: Try the so-called ‘daith’ piercing.

Jay: Kowar, Lynch, Del Rosario all have been pitching really well for Lexington. Any of those guys potential top 100 at some point?
Keith Law: Feels like Lynch might have pitched himself into that range, although, again, I don’t keep a constantly updated 100 list, so this is an educated guess on how they’ll line up.

Larry: Other than Mize do you think anyone from the 2018 draft will make your top 100 list?
Keith Law: Typically 12-15 June draftees make my January top 100.

silvpak: mondesi’s pop has been something of a surprise, yet his strike zone judgment is….lacking. thoughts on continued development in 2019?
Keith Law: I’d project a sub-.300 OBP next year.

Chris: Because we all know there are some crazy sports parents out there: has the parent of a prospect ever reached out to you after a negative report?
Keith Law: Yes. I do not engage.

Louis: Thoughts on CJ Abrams and Corbin Carroll? Two of the top prep guys for next year?
Keith Law: Yes to both.

Christopher: My 10-year-old son loves baseball but struggles at playing it because he gets paralyzed with anxiety. Among other things, he is terrified at getting hit, stemming from an incident about 2 years ago. As a dad (and coach), I struggle between encouraging and being honest and telling him only he can work through it. I’m very sensitive to this being a larger issue. This can’t be unique though, can it?
Keith Law: That sounds like something that requires therapy. He could easily be traumatized by whatever happened two years ago, and that won’t just go away with time.

Joey: After his NWL season, has your opinion changed on Joey Bart’s hit tool? Or does he still project as a below-average MLB hitter?
Keith Law: He was way too old for the NWL.

Pat D: Isn’t it great that we’re going to have a Supreme Court justice who has committed perjury?
Keith Law: This is America. Get your money.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all, as always, for all of your questions. I’ll be back next week after the ‘players i was wrong about’ column runs for another chat. Enjoy your weekends!

My ESPN+ (Insider) writeup of top prospects at this year’s Future Stars Series, including Georgia prep RHP Daniel Espino and NorCal infielder Glenallen Hill, Jr., went up on Wednesday.

Keith Law: Swept away for a moment by chance. It’s Klawchat.

Nick: Is Blake Swihart still a change-of-scenary- type of guy or is he just a weird positional tweener with a bat that doesn’t profile unless he can add defensive value?
Keith Law: The bat will profile behind the plate, and I think if he gets regular playing time and stays healthy the bat would profile elsewhere too.

David: After LeMahieu isn’t re-signed, the plan is for Brendan Rodgers to play 2B, right? Have to think Story has solidified himself at short. But of course the elephant in the room is Arenado – do you think he stays long-term?
Keith Law: I think Story’s a better defender than Rodgers, so yes, I’d expect that, although I have never seen Rodgers as a guy who’d have to move. They should keep Arenado as long as they’re contending, and move him if they think their window is closing – you don’t want to end up in Baltimore’s situation with Machado where you accept half or less of what you might have gotten had you acted sooner.

Addoeh: Does Joe West look like a baked potato?
Keith Law: I would probably not eat a baked potato that looked like Joe West.

mark: Hi Klaw,

What should SD do with Franmil Reyes moving forward… keep him, trade him? Is he at least an average MLB OF?
Keith Law: I don’t think he has the offspeed recognition or discipline to be a league average OF. I will say that Zack Godley demonstrated that Franmil can murder a dick-high fastball though, so maybe teams shouldn’t throw him those.

Jibraun: The college football season has started, and Kyler Murray is actually playing. How are the A’s actually ok with this?
Keith Law: They agreed to it up front. Why they did that, i’m not sure.

KS: can you rank these players based on future potential — muzziotti, moniak, haseley?
Keith Law: Muzziotti is the only one of the three I’d rank right now.

Archie: Hearing the news about Ohtani needing TJ made me wonder if PRP injections ever worked long-term (or, really short-term). Can you think of anyone who has had the treatment and was productive for any meaningful period of time?
Keith Law: My understanding is that they work for some pitchers with partial tears, but not all, and they don’t work on full tears. Of course, you can come back too soon or put in too much effort after PRP and still further damage the ligament.

BE: With the emphasis on controllable talent increasing, are teams pouring more resources into nutrition, instruction, etc. to maximize those early years?
Keith Law: Some are. I’ve suggested sleep as an area teams could look at to try to gain an edge as well. People who don’t obtain sufficient sleep experience cognitive deficits even after just one night. Imagine trying to hit a 95+ mph fastball with your brain at less than its best.

Santos: How significant is Joe Jordan’s departure from the Phillies?
Keith Law: I think they lost a really great baseball mind. I was also a little surprised as I don’t think player development has been an issue there – I know Jordan resigned, and wasn’t pushed out – while their draft results clearly have been. I don’t think it’s going to affect them dramatically long term but if I were in a GM chair I’d hire Joe in a heartbeat.

Moe Mentum: Can you still envision Scott Kingery and JP Crawford as the Phillies’ middle infielders for the next decade? Or do we need to reset expectations based on 2018’s struggles for each?
Keith Law: Kingery yes. Crawford has to prove himself again to the coaching staff – he has more ability than most players on the team, but isn’t putting in the same kind of effort.

mark: A few weeks ago, someone asked you about Padres prospects who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, players eligible this offseason will include Anderson Espinoza, Chris Paddack, Trey Wingenter, Austin Allen, Brett Kennedy and Pedro Avila, while in 2019 it will include Tatis, Logan Allen and Jorge Ona.
Who from that group would you leave unprotected? And who from the following group of Jankowski, Reyes, Renfroe, Manuel Margot, Franchy Cordero, Clayton Richard, Cory Spangenberg and Christian Villanueva would you rather trade or cut in order to protect the prospects?
Keith Law: Wingenter and Kennedy are on the 40-man already, so they are protected unless the Padres outright them; I might consider Kennedy but Wingenter is a keeper. Jankowski, Richard, Spangenberg, and Villanueva are all fungible extra guys, the type they’ll be able to replace from within rather quickly.

Chris: How far off is Yordan Alvarez from being in your top 50? Is his lower ranking due to the fact that he is a 1B?
Keith Law: He’s a bad 1b with an older body.

Quinn: Other than Bo and Vlad, which (if any) Jays prospects should we expect to see in your top 100 this offseason?
Keith Law: Pearson. That’s probably it, which is one reason of several why I laughed at the Jays’ front office claims that they have a top 5 system. After maybe, maybe six names, it drops off fast.

Tadd: Are we all the way back in on Giolito?
Keith Law: I’m mostly back in. Command still a grade below where it ought to be, but stuff looks better, throwing more strikes, mechanics seem at least more consistent if not perfect.

jaren: christian mccaffery a top 5 rb this year in ppr?
Keith Law: This is America – speak English.

Anthony: So where do the Angels go with Ohtani now?
Keith Law: I would plan to give him 2019 off after TJ, rather than rushing back hi bat and risking any sort of re-injury or setback in the rehab.

Evan: What would be your plan with Tyler Mahle? Can he still be a middle of rotation arm?
Keith Law: I think I’d called him a fourth starter/league average guy, and I would stick to that. Some prospects click right away, some take more time.

Joshua: My dad makes some sly comments that can be offensive sometimes (not often) but doesn’t realize it. When I try to correct him he says that he didn’t know that people take offense to it and that people are more soft nowadays. What’s the best way to correct him but not be disrespectful
Keith Law: Well, you could point out that calling other people “soft” is itself insulting – you don’t tell someone they’re ugly and then yell at them for getting upset over it. And once you’ve said something’s offensive, when he does it again, he’s lost that excuse. But for me, the answer has always been simple: If you’re going to make racist, sexist,
homophobic, or other bigoted comments around me – let alone in front of my daughter – I will choose to spend my time with other people.

Craig: If Sarah Sanders wrote the op-ed, could she find work with the Toronto Blue Jays?

“It has nothing to do with business. It has nothing to do with anything other than we think the best thing for him developmentally is to play in Arizona.”

Clearly, i s you pointed out on Twitter, this is laughably false.
Keith Law: I mean, I understand they can’t tell the truth (or Vlad would file and win a grievance), but don’t lie. That’s just such a blatant falsehood. I’ve scouted the AFL myself the last 12 Octobers. It’s a substantially lower caliber of play than September MLB games provide. The comments were a direct insult to the intelligence of every Jays fan.

Rod: Is it safe to assume that Touki is in the rotation next year? What are the odds for Triston McKenzie?
Keith Law: I think Touki’s a starter for most of next year. McKenzie is a starter if he shows he can stay healthy next year in AAA.

Beau: Do you think the Padres rebuild will actually work out?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

Mighty Ox: What is your advice to a high school junior (just turned 16) who aspires to pitch at an Ivy League School or their close equivalent? FB is 85 mph, SAT 1400 (first try), school weighted avg ~100. Good kid. Thanks
Keith Law: I’m not sure what more to tell you – if he’s got the grades, then he should just keep working on his craft on the mound, and maybe look for one or two things to help distinguish his application like quality volunteer work.

Scott: Do the Pirates have any hope of rebuilding their lineup from within or are they going to have to make some major moves? Also, thoughts on Ulysses by James Joyce and any 2018 board games have a chance of Cracking your Top 100?
Keith Law: They’ll have to add at least one piece from outside this winter. I reviewed Ulysses here on the dish in two posts a few years ago. I expect at least 5-6 games from this year to make my top 100 if not more.

Fred: It seems like the Braves are trying to give Philly the division but the Phillies don’t want it. Why is the whole division in a slump?
Keith Law: Maybe both of those teams were playing a bit over their heads? Both blew away any preseason predictions or projections I saw through the start of August.

Nate: Since making his plate adjustment on June 6, Gregory Polanco is slashing 287/362/563/925 (before yesterday’s games) in 300 PA. Only 11 guys have a 925 OPS this year. Is that the type of player he is going to be?
Keith Law: It’s the type of player I believe he should be, given his tools.

Gary : You seem to be lower on Peter Alonso than most. What would you have to see to change your opinion on him? (I guess this is also a general player development question )
Keith Law: I don’t know what “most” think but I know he’s a 40 defender at first.

Jake: Does Daniel Lynch’s uptick in velo this season change his ceiling?
Keith Law: If it sticks, yes, although I was pretty high on him anyway because he has four pitches with a + slider and good control. Plus he’s an animal on the mound.

Victoria: Is Kevin Kramer and Kevin Newman the middle infield combo for the Pirates next year?
Keith Law: We all hope so.

John: Following the Buxton and several other situations. I have seen several proposals for FA starting at age X or X years after being drafted? Do you see any problems of abuse with those ideas?
Keith Law: Any system will be abused, but I like age-related free agency. You can’t do X years after being drafted because such a system would screw college guys – and as much as I counsel players to sign out of HS if the offer is good, plenty of great big leaguers weren’t good enough out of HS to get that money and needed college.

jaren: is luis urias a top talent at his position the next 5 years?
Keith Law: I would bet no.

Jeff: Amed Rosario is on fire – he finally finding his groove? Still crazy young
Keith Law: Still very young, making a lot of contact, wish he walked a little more but he’s not hacking away, and now he’s getting some better results on balls in play. I haven’t changed my projection that he’ll end up a star.

Josh Nelson: What are your thoughts about MLBPA hiring Bruce Meyer to be the Chief Negotiator (what a title)?
Keith Law: They’ve made a few major hires recently that signal to me that they intend to enter the next negotiations with a firmer negotiating stance. They did not sufficiently exercise their power two years ago. They need to regain some lost ground.

Drew: Are you familiar with the British punk band IDLES? Their new album, Joy as an Act of Resistance, is so damn good.
Keith Law: I feel like I’ve heard one of their songs, but I’ve put it on in the background now to check it out.

Marshall MN: Klaw, when you go to a new well reviewed coffee shop in a different city do you have a go to drink that you try as a point of comparison against other coffee houses? I know you are a light roast guy, is that your point of comparison?
Keith Law: My favorite coffee drink is a traditional macchiatto – a double shot of espresso topped with a little foamed milk. A pour-over would be a better gauge of a shop’s beans, but it’s also going to depend then on which specific beans you get; generally third-wave shops have their own specific blends for espresso that are more consistent, or, in the case of a place like Cartel in Phoenix, they find a single origin bean that they think will profile well as an espresso.

jaren: clevinger has looked like he’s moving into the top 15 or so starting pitchers as far as talent. would you agree? did you ever expect this from this kid? he’s been downright nasty in the second half
Keith Law: I would not agree.

romorr: Would you say the Oriole minor league pitchers, as a whole, had a promising year?
Keith Law: There’s been a lot of progress from their A-ball guys, which is where their most important pitching prospects were.

Marshall MN: What are your thoughts on the Twins handling of Buxton at the end of this year?
Keith Law: Completely disagree with it, and I think he should file a grievance – I think more players should fight these manipulations, because teams do it with impunity right now.

Rum Guy: Big fan of your music playlists, thx. I have a question about your equipment-when you’re listening to these music files, other than thru earbuds —- do you have floor speakers in your home & can u reveal what you own for home use?
Keith Law: I don’t own any music equipment like that.
Keith Law: OK, that’s about enough of that IDLES record. If I wanted to get yelled at I have other places I can go.

Jim: What kind of upside do you see for Jordan Groshans?
Keith Law: I could see an above-average regular if he finds more power – which I think would require a swing alteration as right now it’s a little flat. Good athlete with a great arm. I would probably bet that he’s a regular, but there’s more upside.

Justin: This year Ke’Bryan Hayes suddenly looks like a guy who can hit for a high average, play great defense, run, and hit for some power (all while being at least a little young for AA). What has to happen for him to become a top 25 (or better) type prospect? Add a little more power?
Keith Law: He was already 42 on my most recent list.

Carl: Can Baltimore salvage Chance Sisco or will he need a new manager & coaching staff?
Keith Law: I think he needs a new manager there or a change of scenery if Showalter returns.

jwp: Roughned Odor looks like he has a different approach at the plate. Do you think it sticks long term?
Keith Law: I think it does – i’ll be certain if he maintains it into next season. But I don’t think there are many examples of guys who see their BB% jump like this in their 20s and then lose it all.

EL: Could Chris Shaw benefit from more AAA time, or is he what he is at this point?
Keith Law: He’s a 4A guy for me.

JR: All these Kavanaugh hearings are doing is reinforcing what an awful person he is and how we shouldn’t want him on SCOTUS and yet he will be nominated anyways. Am I missing anything?
Keith Law: He’ll be confirmed anyways, yes, because nothing matters except packing the courts to overturn abortion rights, affirmative action laws, and maybe gay marriage.

Lois Sanborn: Hi Keith, thanks for all of your work! It always makes me happy to hear your thoughts on baseball and non-baseball topics alike. How would you project Alex Kirilloff’s game power going forward? I just looked up his spray chart from this season and noticed that he hit 11 of his 20 HRs to left or left-center, which was surprising to me.
Keith Law: I think he’s a plus hit plus power guy in a corner. Great prospect only limited by positional value.

Jimmy: Best Astros prospect that sees playing time in 2019?
Keith Law: I see no reason Whitley isn’t up next year.

Richard Van Norris: Have you watched Tim Anderson’s defense lately? Since mid May or so he has been exceptional. Is he the long term White Sox shortstop?
Keith Law: Was there a question about his defense or that he was their long-term shortstop? I really never gave that a second thought.

Jerry: Didn’t Josh James take off after getting treatment for sleep apnea? Do you see him as a legit MLB prospect? If so, as a SP or RP?
Keith Law: I believe that explanation is bullshit. More likely RP.

Nick L: True or False: This will be the best year of Javy Baez’s career.
Keith Law: False.

Jeff: Has Jose Peraza surprised you at all? Have the Reds found their shortstop for the next 5+ years?
Keith Law: No, I think they can and will do better. He’s probably not reaching 2 WAR this year.

JR: All yesterday had was: 1. Red Sox win game after being down 7-1, with a HR from a long time vet who played in minors all year hoping for a chance to get back. 2. Ohtani going 4-for-4 with 2 HRs after it was announced he needs TJ surgery. 3. Trevor Story hit 3 HRs, including one where’s falling down and one 505 feet. 4. Javy Baez making another amazing play on the basepaths. All in the midst of teams playing for playoff positions. All the people that say the game isn’t as good today as it used to be can please GTFO.
Keith Law: And yet the current headlines on MLB.com are: 1. Five craziest, most magical games of 2018. 2. Here’s what 2019 ‘super teams’ could look like. 3. Bregman channels Harden … not the beard. 4. On the bubble: How MLBers chew gum. Are you kidding me? All that crazy shit happens and the league itself is talking about chewing gum? I can’t even say ‘please like my sport’ if the league won’t back me up by promoting all this great stuff happening on the field.

Marshall MN: What level of competition do you consider Arizona Fall League…sort of Double A-ish?
Keith Law: Inconsistent, but in general below that unless you get a Whitley type on the mound.

Nick L: Roberta’s in Brooklyn was legit!
Keith Law: I wouldn’t steer you wrong.

Nick L: Who’s your favorite stand up comedian?
Keith Law: I really like the ones who don’t sexually harass or assault other people. But that’s just me.

Ray: to follow up on Joshua’s comment – I was recently in a room with my sister and father during a conversation they were having about a third person. My father asks, “is he black?” and my sister responds, “he is, but he doesn’t act black”. My head about exploded and I just left the room. I should have spoken up.
Keith Law: It’s hard to react correctly in the moment, at least in my experience. I told this story before, but years ago, I was at the Big 12 tournament in Oklahoma (of course), when a Texas fan asked me how the Aggies looked in football … but he put an ‘f’ before the word. I asked him to repeat himself twice, hoping he’d get it, before his wife grabbed his arm and told him to stop. I should have come back at him harder, but in the moment, I was so floored – it had truly been years since I’d heard that word or its other forms spoken at all – that I didn’t call him out directly. That was six years ago, I think, and I’m still disappointed.

Darren: In regards to David suggesting Rodgers plays 2B in Colorado, what do you think of Garrett Hampson?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s better than Rodgers or Story.

Lance: Nolan Gorman: Superstar? Above Average Regular? Just A Guy?
Keith Law: I’ll go with above-average regular with wide error bars around that prediction. It’s 80 raw.

Jim: German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Jon Gray, which one has the highest ceiling at this point?
Keith Law: Gray still has the most upside, Freeland is the best present pitcher.

Steve: Gausman has pitched a lot better for the Braves. Another example of the O’s failing to develop a prospect? Function of switching NL? Both? Too early to tell?
Keith Law: That one is squarely on the coaching staff.

Pat D: So the venerable River Ave. Blues has decided to shut down their comment section. I have mixed feelings. I made a lot of really good friends there, to the point where we’ve gone to several games together, but the comments had been getting steadily worse over the last few years, they couldn’t spend time moderating them properly, and apparently now someone was threatening the owners in some way. Totally justified for them to shut it down considering those circumstances, right?
Keith Law: Agreed, totally justified. I may do the same with the comments here at some point, unfortunately.

MikeM: Whats wrong with Luis Severino?
Keith Law: I don’t know if something is physically wrong but he’s visibly not the same and hitters are squaring him up way more often, like they did in 2016.

Dallas: Will Bobby Witt Jr.’s age effect his draft status or will pedigree trump/neutralize it?
Keith Law: His age will work against him, absolutely.

Darryl: Do you have an updated list for good Nashville eateries? Wife and I going for first time in 2 weeks and I want to hit a couple gems. Thanks in advance!
Keith Law: Nothing new since my last visit, I think.
Keith Law: or last post, I should say.

Tony: Do you think Rougned Odor has actually learned some plate discipline? I was completely blown away when I saw he had a .343 OBP
Keith Law: Career high in BB. 10 HBP might be misleading you a little, but yes, I think he has.

Biff: 1. Winker 2. Votto 3. Suarez 4. Gennett 5. Senzel – that lineup will score some runs eh?
Keith Law: I think so – should put a lot of guys on base, at least.

AGirlHasNoName: At what point can I just give up on society and just accept that chaos reigns, and we are all taking a ride on the good ship FUBAR? Is not caring who wrote the NYT op-ed, not being surprised at its content, mean I am already there? I have outrage fatigue maybe.
Keith Law: Yeah I couldn’t get worked up over the op ed … it was so self-congratulatory, and for what? If that’s what the guy is, then invoke the damn 25th already.

joe: If I liked Lush Life – R. Price, what else do you recommend?
Keith Law: His book Clockers is also pretty good.

Jax: Do you think Kershaw opts out after the season?
Keith Law: Yes, for sure.

Nate: You’ve been beating the drum on trading Inciarte for some time. What would be a reasonable return for a streaky Gold Glover?
Keith Law: Less than it would have been a year ago when I suggested it and was insulted eight ways to Sunday.

Tony: I know that Jose Quintana wasn’t exactly an ace with the White Sox, but is there anything you have seen with the Cubs that explains why he has been less effective? Most of the numbers seem similar, although his walks are up a little bit.
Keith Law: Fastball command has looked way off.

Lance: Is Jack Flaherty’s early success in St. Louis sustainable long term barring injury?
Keith Law: Yes. Always liked him over several of their other pitchers like Weaver or Hudson.

Marvin Miller: 4 year Free Agency, elimination of arbitration….the next CBA….take it to bank….
Keith Law: Would love to see it but owners will fight tooth and nail on that.

JT: The Rowdy Tellez circumstance is hard to hear about. Do you ever bury stories you know that would be exculpatory about poor performance? Does learning about his mother affect your rating of Tellez? (or earn him another look?)
Keith Law: It’s a very sad story, but he was never a good prospect, and I can’t let sentiment change my assessment of his tools or swing or other deficiencies.

Ridley Kemp: Keith, I mostly just wanted to thank you for pointing me towards “Why We Sleep”. It was more of an eye-opener for me than it probably should have been. I’m making a point of getting 8 hours of sleep a night and the difference in how I feel in the morning is enormous.

Also, if you’re ever in Austin again, you should check out a restaurant called Loro. It’s a joint venture by Tyson Cole (Uchi) and Aaron Franklin (you probably know his claim to fame), and unlike most supergroups, this one does not disappoint.
Keith Law: The real issue here is that I need a good reason to get back to Austin. All these Texas arms and they’re never from there.

Adam D.: Do you view the Giants system as one that could find itself in the top-10 or 15 in the next 18 months? Ramos, Canario, Bart and Luciano seem like the makings of a potentially impact set of players.
Keith Law: Extremely unlikely. I would guess I’m lower than you are on Bart or Ramos, too.

Steven : Are you a Bon Iver fan? If so have you listened to the Justin Vernon and Aaron Dessner collaborative album?
Keith Law: I’m not, and I didn’t like their new project, even with the baseball name: Big Red Machine.

Mighty Ox: Hi Keith! Does Andujar stay at 3rd base or is he destined for DH?
Keith Law: Third base.

addoeh: Aren’t we in a Constitutional crisis already with un-elected officials actively allowing or taking away which bills our failed leader signs? And the senior official (or officials) are worried about the 25th Amendment?
Keith Law: Yes … and one party does not care as long as they get what they want.

Draftnik: No question, just FYI Michael Lorenzen and Aaron Nola both had PRPs and avoided surgery (so far).
Keith Law: Thank you. I think there are many examples – but they all had relatively minor tears, not full tears.

Dr. Bob: Are all of the players on the field in the AFL prospects signed by MLB teams? Or do they have to sometimes fill out a roster with some college or extra players so that they can have full games?
Keith Law: Always MLB teams, although frankly I wouldn’t be mad if they allowed, say, an NPB or KBO player or two to pop in, maybe someone approaching free agency or whom the parent team wants to post.

cplo: I saw Luis Ortiz got the call up in Baltimore. Has he shown enough over his minor league career to prove he can stick as a starter?
Keith Law: Stuff yes, durability an open question.

Xavier: Is there a valid argument for someone other than Degrom winning Cy Young?
Keith Law: Yes, Nola and Scherzer are right there with him.

John: Has Lewis Thorpe put himself back on the top 100 radar this year with the better performance and being 2 years removed from TJ?
Keith Law: Not yet, not unless the stuff ticks up.

Bill: Should Machado go back to 3B or should he stay at SS?
Keith Law: Third base, where he’s plus. His little time at short hasn’t been promising.

mike sixel: It would be sad if comments went away, we (I) like the interaction……is it really that bad?
Keith Law: I have had to keep moderation on for two years now because of a very small number of abusive people (two, maybe three). One is pretty much a single comment away from me going to the police.

Matt: Honestly, I think if what Fred Wilpon reportedly wants, which is a GM that’s anti-analytics and also has no authority to overrule the owners, I’m out. Probably not forever, but they won’t be getting my money for a long time. Analytics or no, what the team desperately needs in a Prez of Baseball Ops, because Jeff has failed, and the organization reeks of disfunction.
Keith Law: I saw an article this week that listed way too many names, some of whom were good ones, some of whom were not (and really, can we not hire a GM who’s failed in multiple stops already, and give someone else a chance), but that said at the end that the Mets haven’t contacted anyone and no one really knows what they’re thinking. I believe Joel Sherman wrote it but I’m not 100%. But that last part is the lede: We’re all just guessing until they start calling to ask for permission.

Zac: What does Jacoby Jones have to hit to be a glove first everyday CF?
Keith Law: Dude is 26 with a .255 OBP in about 600 MLB PA. Time to let that one go.

Lucky Lindy: Speaking of players turning it around post-trade — shouldn’t people in Texas be fired with how Cole Hamels has improved since going to the Cubs?
Keith Law: I would at least have some questions for the pitching coach(es) about what might have gone wrong, and why the Cubs figured something out that quickly when we didn’t.

tomm: obviously predicting what kind of player a prospect will become is very difficult, especially when it comes to projecting hit/in game power tool. when it comes to pure speed, however, it would seem easier because its just timed and far less up to opinion. that being said, how did bader not get an 80 speed in the minors? Tied for second in the mlb statcast speed. did he get much faster?
Keith Law: He’s not an 80 runner now, but he also was nowhere close to this fast when he signed – I even talked to someone in STL recently who confirmed this.

John: The best part of the op-ed was the self own by an editor at the Federalist who claimed the founding fathers would be rolling over in their graves about the use of anonymity
Keith Law: That whole thread is worth checking out – one expert on the subject kept setting him straight, and the dude kept digging … and digging … and digging … like, my man, take the L already, you lost.

John: If I’m LA, I’m happy if Kershaw opts out. I may just be inclined to shake his hand, thank him, and not give him another 6 years and $180 million.
Keith Law: Easy to say, but he’s an iconic player for the Dodgers, and they’d have a lot of fans to appease if he leaves – plus he takes several wins of value with him that they can’t easily replace.

GP: Since you said it was too early to judge the Archer trade, Archer had a great outing and Glasnow had a disastrous one and it appears Meadows injured his hand. I just wanted to say that
Keith Law: Yeah maybe a month is too soon, i dunno

Grande Esteban: Why didn’t the Angels just tell Ohtani once he signed that he needed Tommy John surgery and he would start the season in the minors until he was healthy enough to come up, and if he didn’t do that, they’d just send him to the minors anyway to start the year? That would have gotten the surgery done right away, and also would have gotten them an extra year of service time.
Keith Law: He didn’t need the surgery right away, and you can’t just tell an employee to go have surgery.

Ben: Wander Franco an overall top 10 prospect to you?
Keith Law: He was #17 on my last update, and graduations alone may push him up a few spots.

Jake: Nick Pratto…is he the first half guy, the second half guy, or the last month guy?
Keith Law: He’s the overall season guy. I don’t like to get too worked up over 2nd half minor league splits, because over the course of a season, the best players in a league will get promoted, and be replaced by, in theory, inferior players from lower levels.

Jeff: Not calling you out or anything – Just having fun – but remember when your ESPN chats used to be JobaMania? Good times. You’ve been doing these chats a long time and I appreciate it.
Keith Law: Twelve years of Klawchats, in fact. My first one was July 2006, I think, maybe a month after I joined. May we all live another 12 years to argue over Joba’s large adult son.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all, as always, for your questions and for reading. I believe my next Insider column is my minor league player of the year piece, although I doubt there’s much suspense in the winner. Have a safe and fun weekend, everyone.

My review of the beautiful new worker-placement game Everdell is up at Paste.

Keith Law: Sayonara, tomorrow, now he’s blood on the ground. It’s Klawchat.

Go Go Gadget Hamate Bone: Any noticeable change to Luis Urias’ hitting profile since adopting the leg kick tweak?
Keith Law: No, not that I think he really needed one. If anything changed, it’s that he got to hit in El Paso.

Joe: Keith, is it fair to question Showalter’s handling of young players? He sat Sisco on the bench for long periods earlier in the year and now he is sitting Mullins to get a look at some guy named John Andreoli.
Keith Law: I think it’s fair, yes. He certainly seems like he’s never taken a liking to Sisco, at least. He hasn’t been the same with young pitchers, though – if anything he might have used them too much.

Dana: How stupid do the Yankees fans who booed Stanton in April look right now?
Keith Law: Any fans who boo players in April look stupid. I’m not big on booing players period, but every year, a handful of great players will get off to ‘slow’ starts. So to answer your question, they look grade 80 stupid.

Gene: Keith, a couple of contracts remain to be shed or survived, but is there any way to accelerate the rebuild in Baltimore? With their luck with the draft and player development, I can’t foresee any return to competitiveness within the next three to five years. The farm, with a few exceptions seems to be littered with spare parts, fourth outfielders, relief pitchers, and offensive pieces without defensive positions. Is there any light at the end of the tunnel?
Keith Law: They’ve drafted better the last few years, I think. Certainly a lot of arms in the lower levels right now. They need to do something more on the international front, of course. My argument has been that ownership waited too long to trade Machado, and as a result, the return was just OK, but seems unlikely to deliver them any cornerstones.

Pathmark: What is the optimal Sep/Oct use of Justus Sheffield in terms of what is best for him and the team?
Keith Law: I’d like to see him get some long relief outings. One, it’s a good way to break in a young starter. Two, what I have heard from multiple scouts this year is that he’s not showing the command he’ll need to be a mid-rotation starter or better. He’s super athletic and very smart, and the delivery is fine, so there’s no real reason he can’t get there – but he’s not there yet. Reps in the majors could help.

James: Before Chris Paddack was shut down his fastball was apparently touching 98. Is that just a blip or is that a newfound velocity post TJ?
Keith Law: I saw 95 or 96 in March. 98 wouldn’t shock me but I don’t think he’s going to pitch there. The question around his upside revolves around his breaking ball anyway, not his velocity. I don’t think he’s markedly different with a 92-95 mph fastball or a 92-98 mph fastball.

Pathmark: Do you watch the LLWS? Thoughts on the quality of play or perils of the excessive breaking balls?
Keith Law: I don’t watch it. Don’t care as much about breaking balls as I do about kids trying to throw too hard.

Nick: I read your recent report on Adam Haseley; is there reason to be concerned about the Phillies’ ability to develop hitters given your report as well as Moniak and Randolph’s struggles? Or is this just bad luck?
Keith Law: Neither was a great pick for his spot. I think if there’s been a weakness in the Phillies’ rebuild, it’s been in the draft. Their trades have been solid and their international amateur department keeps finding gold.

Joe: Good afternoon, Keith. Roy Halladay: Hall of Famer?
Keith Law: I’ve given my provisional ballot before – he’s on the bubble. I had seven definites for ten spots, I think, and then 6-7 guys I’d consider for the last three. He’s in the latter group.

Jason : As an Oakland fan I still can’t believe this team is competing. They are bringing up guys that I have never heard of and they keep coming. First off is this one of the worst lineups from a talent aspect that you have seen competing for a playoff spot this late in the season? Who should get credit for this (besides the players) front office? manager? organization as a whole?
Keith Law: You can credit all of those plus acknowledge they’ve had a lot of luck this year. They’ve collected a lot of guys who probably wouldn’t be as good without the juiced ball to help. They’ve had guys like Matt Chapman make enormous (but apparently very real) development leaps in the majors. Sean Manaea is 2 innings short of qualifying for the ERA title for the year, which is either luck or credit to the training staff or both. But also picking up discards for the rotation seems more like when the Yankees acquired Aaron Small and he had two months that were completely out of nowhere.

The Killer Klaw: There are a lot of ‘dudes’ that Padres fans want to keep track of. Should Tucupita Marcano be one of them?
Keith Law: He is; he was mentioned in my preseason Padres writeup, and it’s very rare for me to mention DSL guys at all because we really know virtually nothing about them.

Nick: If you’re Josh Donaldson, do you sign a one-year “prove it” deal in hopes you returns to form (4-5 win players) and sign a better deal in 2019? Or is that too risky given his age and injury?
Keith Law: He might not get any long-term offers after this year, so if he’s just getting one- and two-year deals he should consider taking the one-year deal and hoping he’s healthy enough for 140 games.

Reuben Amaro Jr.: Considering the Phillies have outperformed their run differential this year how would you approach next year if you were management? Do you think their young pieces will be ready to make that leap next year or would you target 2020 as the year to go all in? Asking for a friend…
Keith Law: I think they already started to go in with Arrieta and Santana; there’s no reason to stop now, especially in a huge free agent class with plenty of cash available. I do think they’ll have some real decisions to make, like whether JP Crawford, who seems not to have clicked with the new coaching staff, is part of the future or needs a change of scenery. I don’t think their top prospect arms are going to be ready till the middle of next year, which could also inform their decision-making.

Jed: Any info on Robert Puason? Top 2019 J2 guy?
Keith Law: I don’t follow that market, sorry.

The BigSauce: Eloy Jimenez raking and the call up watch is T- 1.5 days. Do they do the right thing and make the call for the next series home opener? Sticking in the central does Lovelady get the call too?
Keith Law: I think they’ll call up Eloy, since he’s already on the 40-man. No clue on Lovelady – he’s a reliever, not someone you manipulate service time on.

Trevor: I refuse to believe Arenado has 3 DRS this year when he’s never had less than 16 in a season. The baseline defensive stats are there so is the statistic flawed or is he having a down year defensively?
Keith Law: He’s been having a down year defensively. You’ve sort of made the argument from personal incredulity – it isn’t true because I can’t believe it’s true.

Trevor: Can we please give the creator of the opener a raise. Hearing the Braves announcers bash the idea, whilst citing Teheran’s 1st inning struggles and the Rays AL best ERA since it’s inception, is laughable.
Keith Law: Given what’s gone on this year down there, it’s a good night if those guys aren’t laughable.

Bill G: Hi Keith. Seems like expansion to 32 teams is inevitable. Would you favor 4 divisions of 8 teams, or 8 divisions of 4 teams (like NFL). Would you favor geographical alignment or a more traditional AL and NL. Thanks!
Keith Law: Fewer divisions. Adding divisions increases the chances of a sub-.500 team making the playoffs.

Abed: The Pirates farm system seems pretty barren, and I thought this before the Baz inclusion was announced. Now, outside of the core group (Keller/Hayes/Swaggerty, and to a lesser extent, Tucker/Cruz) is there anyone else worth getting excited over? Someone who has made a major leap in your eyes this year?
Keith Law: Cruz has made the biggest leap. Hayes has really established himself as at least a solid average hitter with a 70 glove. I might have said Calvin Mitchell earlier this year but he cooled off quite a bit and doesn’t offer any value beyond the bat.

Zach: I know Trevor Williams isn’t a 3.30 ERA (his 2018 figure) caliber pitcher, but going back to last season, as a starter, he sports a 3.99 FIP (50 starts). Is it stretching it to say he’s a high-3s/low-4s ERA caliber starter?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think that’s stretching it at all. Probably just about right.

Danny: Kevin Newman made his debut last week – a guy I know you absolutely loved coming out of the draft. His time in the minors has been a bit of a disappointment, but do you believe that he can still be a starting caliber middle infielder?
Keith Law: I do, but he has to bring some of the power he’ll show in BP into games more. He really hasn’t done enough to try to drive the ball. He’s going to make a ton of contact, he can play short, he’ll add value on the bases, but he needs to be more of a 35 doubles, 10 homers guy.

Ron: Hi Keith- How many more productive years of being a catcher would have made Mauer a HOFer? If he could of had 3 or 4 years more behind the plate, could he have knocked on the door? Too bad he had to move.
Keith Law: He might still get there. I could see him becoming a cause celebre among the stat crowd, because his career value requires more than a cursory look at the old stats.

Buddy: Surprised by Cardinals turnaround?
Keith Law: No.

J.P.: As we await your writeup on Manning (and the Senators/Wolves), were you pleasantly surprised by how he handled his Double-A debut or no?
Keith Law: No, I wouldn’t say that. He was fine, three average pitches, changeup might have been a 55. What I really liked was how they’ve gotten his delivery to make better use of his height. He extends way out over his front side now, and he must have some of the best extension in the minors now. That helped the fastball, which was 91-95 without a lot of life, really play up even in the zone. Hitters reacted like they didn’t have enough time.

John: Greg Bird drawing a lot of ire from Yankees fans. (You hate to see that.) Justified?
Keith Law: I think it’s been unfair of the org to talk him up as a future first baseman given the state of his defense even before the injuries. Let him DH and hope he hits like he did as a prospect – low average but tons of walks and 25+ homers.

Ted: How do you feel about the A’s strategy to target high-ceiling/high-risk players like Beck and Murray in recent drafts over other players that were generally deemed to be “safer” because they wouldn’t be able to afford these high-upside players on the open market? How do you feel about Beck as a prospect? Keep up the great work. Thanks.
Keith Law: I go back and forth on Beck; he’s only 19, and he struck out a lot less this year than I expected, but, damn, Gina, where the heck did the 70 raw power go?

Mike: Playing Azul with people who primarily work the top rows, how do you maximize your score in what ends up being a quick race to the finish?
Keith Law: Try to hit the big bonuses – the 10 point bonus for getting the same color in all five rows or the 7 points for finishing a column. I think those exist in the game to balance out the top-rows people (who suck, just play the fucking game right, people).

JR: Is the Klaw Factory hiring? Does it offer decent pay/benefits?
Keith Law: There’s one employee and he gets worked to death.

Justin: Shane Bieber’s having a respectable rookie season. Do you think his command is advanced enough that he can reduce the hard contact and BABIP issues as he goes around the league/learns hitters?
Keith Law: I think he can mitigate them enough to be a solid fourth starter. His stuff is marginal enough in today’s game that BABIP/hard contact will just be part of his game in most seasons.

Rob : From your pre-season review of the Mets farm system it seemed you liked the upside in the system assuming bouncebacks from injuries etc. Any updated thoughts based on how this MiLB season played out?
Keith Law: Several of those guys did bounce back, right? Dunn and Kay did. Peterson’s been very good outside of a dead-arm stretch. Lindsay has been a big disappointment (and got hurt again, I believe). Newton’s been a surprise. Kelenic and Woods-Richardson have both looked great in their debuts. Mauricio has made himself a Guy in the GCL. The farm isn’t the problem. It’s been a combination of bad roster management in the majors, ownership involvement, and for a while a manager who was just not up to the job.

Tristan: While acknowledging that being consumed by a Rookie of the Year vote is a bit silly, the race in the AL is quite interesting this year. Ohtani, Torres and Andujar all look like guys who’ll have good careers. And on a rate basis you can argue Ohtani has outhit the Yankee kids. He hasn’t played defense, though. Do voters give him credit for those 9 starts (and for being Amazing)? Would you?
Keith Law: Of course Ohtani should get credit for those starts. I would seriously object to any voter claiming they would only consider him as a pitcher or a hitter. You add up all the value of everything he’s done and compare him to the other candidates.
Keith Law: Oh, I have no ballot this year. How droll.

Paul: Is this offensive version of Matt Chapman here to stay? If so, what is your long-term projection?
Keith Law: I’m buying. Way improved approach at the plate. All-Star.

Bob Pollard: Know you’re high on Wander Franco, but am wondering what you think his ceiling is (apologies if you’ve noted this). Are we looking at a Lindor-type superstar SS?
Keith Law: Less of a runner, not the same defender, more average and more raw power. (Then again, Lindor is going to hit 30+ again this year, so I no longer know what average power looks like.)

JR: You buying Zack Wheeler stock? He’s on a very impressive streak. Possible he’s finally fully recovered from TJ surgery and this is who he can be going forward?
Keith Law: He’s looked as good as I can remember him looking since he was in the low minors.

Bighen: What’s the Mets 2019 plan if it doesn’t include spending serious money which just isn’t going to happen. You can squint and see a decent team if a few breaks go their way. You can also see a full blown disaster if 1 or 2 big things go wrong. Tough needle to thread
Keith Law: Agreed. If I were named their GM (that’s not happening, this is hypothetical), I’d shop deGrom for sure this winter, as his value will never be higher, and you pretty much have to use him to try to get some more impact into the system. I don’t think they’re a few breaks away from contention next year; they’re a lot of breaks away.

JR: SSS, but Amed Rosario has looked much better at the plate of late, which is encouraging. It seems like there have been a lot of top prospects that have debuted over the past few years and immediately played well, so when a top prospect takes some time to develop (which is fine), the hot takes come fast and furious. Oh, and it helps when they play you everyday at your normal position cough Dominic Smith cough.
Keith Law: Your middle point in there is the salient one: Not every great player performed in his first stint in the majors. Josh Donaldson made my top 100 list one year, bounced around via trades, had some injuries, didn’t hit that well at first, and became an MVP candidate in his late 20s. Even Mike Trout wasn’t Willie Mays in his first month or so in the majors at age 19. Just be patient.

Drew: If Madson and Gio are still in Washington come Saturday, will Mike Rizzo be guilty of managerial malpractice?
Keith Law: Too strong. Those guys have some real value to contenders. We’re not talking Jose Bautista here.

George : I feel like people are being way too quick on evaluating the Archer trade. Lots of good pitchers have bad months
Keith Law: Yes and give the Pirates an offseason to get to know the guy and work with him. I saw most of his last outing vs Milwaukee, and there was some really bad pitch selection in addition to the usual problems with location. You can’t get beat like that on sliders to lefties unless you are burying that sucker at his back foot.

Ted: The Sox have 3 third basemen, Devers, Dalbec and Chavis. Who should be the long term Sox third baseman and where should the others play or should they be traded?
Keith Law: Devers is the best overall player of the three and I would take him. Dalbec has emerged as a prospect, and can really play third, but he’s had a 30%+ K rate at every level of full-season ball, and I can’t fully buy into him as a big league caliber bat. Chavis can hit some but I’ve never liked his defense at third in the past.

Bruce: With all the second generation hitters taking prospect lists by storm nowadays, any reason for a Giants fan to get excited about Luis Gonzalez’s kid Jacob? Stat line this year doesn’t show much promise, but maybe you have more insight?
Keith Law: Thought he was a reach in the second round. Older HS kid too, turned 19 just after the draft, so he’s young but not THAT young. I thought he was power over hit, as did a lot of scouts I asked.

Darius: Archer for Meadows, Glasnow and Baz…one month in, does this look like a bad trade for the Pirates or too soon to tell?
Keith Law: Too soon to tell.

Jim: What is going on with Riley Pint? He hasn’t pitched in forever. Is he just done? Any chance he regains top 100 status down the line?
Keith Law: The story has been a forearm injury and then an oblique strain and then a paper cut and then he caught smallpox … and would it surprise anyone at this point if we heard he had TJ surgery? Not me. Huge arm and gifted athlete who has always had trouble throwing strikes. I heard he was looking worse earlier this year in the control department; maybe that was the injury’s fault.
Keith Law: I don’t foresee him being a top 100 guy unless he can find the plate.

Shuck Bowalter: What’s your hot take on Moncada? Future All Star, or all time over-hype bust?
Keith Law: Somewhere in between those two.

OoOoO: The Rangers have Taylor Hearn, Joe Palumbo and Jonathan Hernandez all at AA Frisco right now. Are any of them legitimate starting pitching prospects, or are they all relievers in your mind?
Keith Law: Maybe starter, probable starter, likely reliever.

Paul: Is there a specific reason the Mets aren’t bringing Alonso up? Is it a service time issue?
Keith Law: Where does he play?

Ben: Not that you would ever publish one, but do you have a list of worst tools in the majors in your head?
Keith Law: A few come to mind, yes.

Bobby Higginson: What Erie prospects impressed you most last night?
Keith Law: Great to see Castro live for the first time this year. Also Paredes showed what he always shows, dude can really hit. Alcantara might have a 70 arm. Manning I discussed above.

Evan: Saw you tweeted you were at Matt Manning’s game last night. Has your longterm outlook on him changed?
Keith Law: See above. More optimistic now that he’s getting that extension out front. An above-average breaking ball would be nice, but he has better feel for his changeup anyway.

Mike: I noticed you’ve touted Micker Adolfo a few times in the past. What kind of player could you see him developing into? Do you think there’s top 100 upside once he’s back on the field in 2019?
Keith Law: He’ll be someone I consider for the top 100 this winter.

Oscar: Has your outlook on Julio Urias’ potential comeback changed at all? Recent reports have him up to 94mph, but I know that’s not the be-all-end-all.
Keith Law: I don’t believe that, and it really doesn’t matter until he shows he can do that in game situations.

Rob : Javy Baez was named most popular player by little league world series players. Shouldn’t that be a sign to MLB owners and players that its OK to look like you’re having fun while playing?
Keith Law: Yes. Except if you look at MLB owners – the players aren’t the problem here, not overall – you don’t see a lot of people who look like Javy, do you?

Pat D: I was reading a story about the possibility of Elsa having a girlfriend in Frozen 2. A commenter said he had no problem with homosexuality being “accepted,” but objected to it being “normalized” to younger generations. I challenged him to define the difference in the terms and he said that something that isn’t most “common” means that it’s not normal. I ended the conversation right there, though he took that as a win for himself. Is there really any hope for progress with attitudes like that?
Keith Law: Reading the comments was your first mistake. You will not win with those people. They’re already a minority, and they will die off, with their outdated attitudes. LGBTQ+ acceptance is the new normal, as it damn well should be. I personally have never found some stranger’s orientation or gender identity to have any effect on my life. And there are people I love dearly in the LGBTQ+ community. I hope I can simply keep people who might be unsure where they stand on these issues from falling into the fallacious thinking of those who preach hate and bigotry.

Josh in DC: Aside from “let him have fun,” do you have any advice for my 9-year old son’s father, a man whose son is about to try pitching for the first time?
Keith Law: Don’t throw all out – throw comfortably hard, no harder.

Juwan: Assuming you view Soto and Acuna as the front runners for rookie of the year, how do you evaluate their respective candidacies? Acuna has the higher WAR, but Soto seems destined to finish with 20 or so home runs (perhaps he’ll take the record for a teenager), while having a .400+ OPS. Does the additional year of development for Acuna factor into your decision (as well as the teenage records Soto might set), or do you simply evaluate them based on objective performance this season?
Keith Law: I do consider a player’s age for RoY, since that’s an award designed to highlight a future star. I don’t think that award will be settled until the last few days of the season.

Mike: Is David Bote an every day player? He’s been a good story and I enjoy watching him but curious as to what your opinion of him is
Keith Law: I think so. Maybe not for the Cubs once everyone is healthy, but for someone, yes.

Bill: If you were the Braves would you look to offer a long term contract to Folty and buy out some his arb/FA years?
Keith Law: Yes, why not? He’s good, and those contracts have value if the player stays healthy.

Nat: Heading to Philly tomorrow for Cubs v Phils. Any recommendations for beer and/or BBQ in the area? Don’t want to spend an arm and a leg at the park.
Keith Law: There’s nothing right in that area – the sports complex is south of the city, accessible via subway, but there isn’t anything good nearby. I haven’t been but Village Whiskey in center city gets raves and might fit what you’re looking for.

HH: What, other than pesto, can I use basil for? I’m drowning in it this summer.
Keith Law: Caprese salad. Chiffonade it and toss it into salads. Throw some leaves on pizza if you make your own. Pesto freezes well too, although some sources suggest you make it without nuts before freezing.
Keith Law: Apparently it makes good ice cream too. I haven’t gone there yet.

Chad: It seems like the Padres are confident that Mejia can stick at C – supposedly his receiving has improved. With a lineup of Tatis, Urias, Mejia, Myers, Renfroe, and whoever else sticks, is it really that improbable that the Padres have an elite offense as early as next year?
Keith Law: Renfroe isn’t part of an elite offense, not with a career-best .309 OBP this year (and dropping). Myers hasn’t been consistently good enough for that either. And they’re going to play that replacement-level first baseman for whom two years and $20 million would have been an overpay. So it’s not terribly likely just yet.

Josh in DC: What are your feelings about expanded September rosters? As a fan, I hate them (too many pitching changes, for example). What’s your opinion?
Keith Law: I hate that part. I don’t hate seeing young guys get some service time, and exposure to the big league environment and coaching staff. I don’t hate seeing teams have more pitchers in total to spread out workloads. But having, say, only X pitchers available per game would go a long way towards keeping September games from running four hours and September box scores look like Russian novels.

Mac: Do you think Nick Solak will get serious consideration for your top 100 list? I get the draw backs. He’s not physical and doesn’t have tools that jump out at you but he does have an innate feel and approach to hitting that lets him play above his tools. He’s very much like Paul DeJong in that way. I think he’s going to be very good hitter for a long time.
Keith Law: No, definitely not a top 100 guy.

Pramit: If you were working in a front office for a team and the President/GM and/or owner didn’t want to call up a top prospect for service time reasons, what argument would you make in favor of calling up the player? How would you present it?
Keith Law: That he needs the development time in the majors. Vlad Jr is not progressing as a hitter in AAA right now (or as a fielder, but that’s another story). If you want him to get better, you promote him.

DanB Greenwich: hey Klaw…brWAR has Nola at 8.9 and DeGrom at 8.2. fWAR has DeGrom at 7.3 and Nola at 5.7. What causes that kind of discrepancy?
Keith Law: They don’t calculate pitcher WAR the same way. Fangraphs’ version relies on the pitchers’ peripherals and assumes league-average BABIP. Baseball-Reference’s version relies on actual runs allowed.

Andrew: My wifeis a big fan of Takenoko, Catan, and Lanterns, but tends to get turned off by overly complicated/complex games. Would you recommend Everdell for her?
Keith Law: This would be a half-step upgrade in complexity – but it doesn’t feel or play complex. It’s really a masterful design. And the components are stunning.

Jo-Nathan: Stetson Allie is sooo close to being a major leaguer and you just have to feel good for the guy; However there is no way this happens living off $1,100 a month over the past 8 years unless you have something like a $2.25 million bonus to supplement your income. What is the solution here, unionize?
Keith Law: I don’t think they can unionize, can they? If the MLBPA found a way to include them, that would be the best solution. Also, maybe more people should have called their Representatives over the rider MLB had the recipients of campaign contributions slip into the GOP tax bill.

Jim: Mark Vientos looks like one of the most exciting pieces in the Mets system. Do you think he can be an impact player at the big league level, or is it too soon to tell?
Keith Law: I do – I’m a buyer. I forgot to mention him earlier. Kelenic has looked so good early that he’s overshadowed Vientos through no fault of the latter.

Andrew: Hey Keith. I’m considering getting my MBA, and had Tepper on my short list of schools. How was your experience there? I’m looking at things from a challenge/knowledge standpoint rather than networking, for the most part.
Keith Law: I enjoyed my two years there and learned a lot. It’s a very quantitative program, which was unusual then and probably much more relevant today to more jobs. I will say Pittsburgh in the winter is the grayest place I’ve ever spent any time.

Wes: Is Austin Meadows’ performance in Durham anything other than SSS noise?
Keith Law: It is a SSS. 27 games, I believe.

Donald: If you worked in the Astros front office, how would you have handled the Osuna trade?
Keith Law: I would have opposed it, and if they’d made it anyway, I would have found another job.

Kevin w : Why are people so resistant to science? It’s what literally makes everybody’s life better/easier
Keith Law: Much of science denial is tied to a strain of religiosity that holds that what is written in holy texts is literally or at least primarily true, and thus adherents feel that science, by proving some of these beliefs to be false (like creationism), undermines religion. Of course, there are many people on both sides of the religion/science divide who argue that the conflict is not real or essential – that you can be a person of faith and still believe in science. Math is the fundamental language of the universe; you may simply choose to believe that a higher power created math.

Dylan Garner: Is Kolby Allard’s future in the MLB solely tied to him adding velocity/quality to his fastball? It seems impossible for him to succeed against major league hitters with 89-90 as his main pitch.
Keith Law: Not impossible, just an added challenge. His CB can be plus or better. He just has to get to it.

John: A few years ago, we couldn’t quantify much that catchers do defensively. Now there are data on framing. But it seems like there’s some other quality that goes to the relationship with the pitchers, which is very hard for statistics to capture. Is that accurate, or is that characteristic akin to clubhouse chemistry?
Keith Law: I think that we have a decent idea of the value of framing but not as strong an idea about where that value is generated or how sustainable changes in framing value or skill are. I’m loath to consider it too heavily in matters like awards voting or especially the Hall of Fame.

Kevin: If you could only watch one decade of baseball, as a fan what would you choose?
Keith Law: This one. Game’s never been better, folks.
Keith Law: Thank you all for reading this week and for all of your questions – I’m sorry I didn’t get to more but for whatever reason I’m a little slow on the draw today. I should be back again next week for another chat and will try to keep to a regular chat schedule through the rest of the regular season. Have a great Labor Day weekend, to those of you here in the U.S., and please be safe on the roads. Labor Day and Memorial Day are the two most dangerous weekends of the year on American roadways. If you’ve had even a little too much to drink, don’t get behind the wheel. I’d rather have you get home later, but safe, and here for the next Klawchat.

My Insider/ESPN+ post on Wander Franco, Luis Medina, and other prospects is now up.

Keith Law: Tell my friends to call me; I ain’t accepting no letters. Klawchat.

tony: is it starting to become the time for the yanks to give up on greg bird for 2019? he’s been very bad. Bryce has been taking grounders at 1b…
Keith Law: I’ve never bought Bird as a 1b. I think he has value as a DH, low average with walks and power. Harper at 1b wastes his athleticism.

PhillyJake: Trevor Williams of the Pirates has a 3.44 ERA and a 4.33 FIP. Yet, with the Pirates being a notoriously bad fielding team, wouldn’t one expect the numbers to be reversed, in which the fielding would hurt his ERA and his FIP would be lower?
Keith Law: Not necessarily – one pitcher may happen to have good fortune or results with a bad defense. It usually evens out in larger samples but not always.

Michael: Is baseball in a better place than it was 10 years ago? 20 years ago? 50 years ago?
Keith Law: Way better place. It still has problems, and faces some ongoing challenges, but the sport as a whole is healthier than it’s ever been.

J.P.: Would Wander Franco be considered a top 25 prospect in all of baseball right now, or is that being too generous?
Keith Law: He was already top 20 in my midseason update.

Tom: Hi Keith – have you ever posted anything on Twitter (either a tweet you fired off quickly or a response to someone on there) that you regretted? I am not asking this with anything in mind by the way. I am legitimately curious.
Keith Law: Yep, absolutely. I’ve deleted some stuff right away. I’ve had a few tweets for which I later apologized, but often left up as a record of my mistake. There’s one in particular that still bothers me, even though I deleted it within 15 minutes. It was thoughtless, literally – I did not think about how it might upset someone specific that I know who had just been through a tragedy. I took it down.

Depressed Mets Fan: Could Pete get the call from Vegas next month? I need someone to get me excited again, and he could be the guy.
Keith Law: Alonso’s a solid prospect, but Mets fans who keep trying to insert him into the “call this guy up, dammit” conversation around Vlad Jr and Eloy are probably setting themselves up for disappointment.

Frank: Would you consider the Rays a top 5 system right now?
Keith Law: No, but I also won’t spend much time parsing systems until the winter.

Eric: Will we ever see a short season/rookie ball guy get awarded Milb POY in the experts’ eyes? Obviously someone like Franco would have a case in a year in which Vladdy Jr had graduated.
Keith Law: You’d be basing it on something like 50 games. That’s hard to support.

Frank: I’m guessing your review of Luis Medina will be less than favorable. Future RP?
Keith Law: Dude’s walking 11 per 9. Real hard to look at that and say “starter.”

ROY Speculator: Acuna or Soto?
Keith Law: Yes, definitely one of those two.

Nate: Late 2019 a realistic ETA on Pache? Assuming at that time he’s in CF and Acuna in a corner
Keith Law: Yep, that’s fair. Glove is ready now. Bat has come along quite well of late.

Ron: ETA of Lewis and Kiriloff to majors? Late 2019 or is that moving too fast? Thanks!
Keith Law: I’d put Lewis a year behind that. They’re separated by a year, and Lewis has more work to do on defense – if he stays at short at all – than Kirilloff, who is clearly a corner OF.

Ben: Is this the most impressive the Appy League as a whole has been, in your memory?
Keith Law: Two scouts told me they felt the league was weak this year. I only saw that one game.

D: Highly recommend the book American War by Omar El-Akkad. No question, just that rec.
Keith Law: Oof, cli-fi. That’s tough sledding for me. I’ll put it on my list, though.

addoeh: Has there ever been a more successful “witch hunt” than Mueller’s? Lots of folks in the President’s world that are made of wood and weigh the same as a duck.
Keith Law: Cohen even turned Gingrich into a newt. And he hasn’t gotten better.

Nate: The White Sox have had a brutal season with prospect injuries. Would you say they are still a top 5 system?
Keith Law: See above. I don’t like giving flash opinions like that when the question requires more thorough study.

Dave: It looks like the Mariners are good but not good enough. Also old with a bad farm system. How do they approach yet another rebuild?
Keith Law: My guess is they go for it again this winter, but I have no idea what their plan is. A rebuild there is going to take a long time, and they could be Houston-bad for several years.

Eric: How surprised are you that guys like Touki, Allard and Wilson got the call ahead of a more seasoned guy like Wright? Scratching my head at that one. Please enlighten me.
Keith Law: Wilson is the one that surprised me, because he was farthest away from 40-man status of any of those four.

Jeff: Keith – In the past, you’ve stated that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts (and I assume by extension his staff) have not done a good job of developing young pitching. Does the success of Walker Buehler change that analysis at all? PS: Sorry for the re-post
Keith Law: That’s one guy, with elite stuff, so no, it doesn’t. Losing Josh Bard helped them, though.

Brian: How does Jordan Hicks – who routinely throws 102, 103 – have “only” 7.7 K/9? Is it lack of command with his secondary pitches (so guys sit on his fastball)? Lack of deception or movement? Something else? And related: do you think he CAN be a lights-out closer in the future?
Keith Law: It’s pretty straight and hitters do tend to pick it up enough to sit on it. He’s really athletic and I think still has plenty of room for growth in command and feel for using his offspeed.

Tim: Vidal Brujan went 3-3, 2 BB, 2 HRs, 4 R, 5 RBIs and 3 SB yesterday. Incredible game aside, what kind of prospect is the kid?
Keith Law: Above-average regular. Power may not be part of his game, but he can really hit and has legit OBP skills.

Dan: What did you think of Kopech’s cameo? (We can’t call it an outing, unfortunately. Damn you, Mother Nature.)
Keith Law: Stuff looked great. Way too fastball-heavy.

Rob: How will it eventually shake out for the Rays between Franco, Adames, Fox, and Brujan
Keith Law: Adames is two solid years ahead of the rest of them. In the unlikely event that all four guys work out as we hope, they’ll figure it out, but the odds are that someone will fall off along the way due to injury or non-development. Of that group, Fox has the furthest to go, and I feel best about Franco, obviously.

Lee D: Turns out Trump didn’t even need to go to Moscow to collude with someone to influence the 2016 election. Will the Cohen confirmation of this collusion move the bar on the mid-terms, or are voters too entrenched in their camps?
Keith Law: I have seen very little indication that any Trump voters are the least bit affected by this news. The hope for those of us who want him out or at least stopped is that enough undecided or third-party voters show up in November to tip Congress blue.

Bobby: Not sure if you have watched him recently but do you think the Severino struggles are just a small sample size blip or is there perhaps an underlying cause (mechanical or physical)?
Keith Law: Fastball and slider have looked very flat on TV, for whatever that’s worth. It’s always possible that he’s hurt, but it’s also been 6-7 starts and he hasn’t said anything.

Bob: Issac Paredes is having a productive late season debut in AA at age 19. Do you think he has a chance to be a 3-4 WAR player at either 2B or 3B? If not, what’s keeping him from having that kid of upside?
Keith Law: That’s probably about right. I don’t think there’s much growth left there – he’s advanced for his age, but physically doesn’t have much projection.

Nate: Looks like Waters is starting to heat up after slow start following promotion (I know, I know, MiLB stats don’t matter). Is he a potential Top 100 guy in next year or so?
Keith Law: I think consensus within the industry is that he is.

Mac: It’s really disingenuous when you say GMO’s haven’t been proven to be harmful in any way, in fact, you sound more like a lawyer. The science is far from settled. Do you ignore the unethical history of Monsanto, or the fact that dozens of countries (including France, Italy, Russia, Mexico, and Australia to name a few) have full or partial bans on GMO’s?
Keith Law: It’s not “disingenuous;” it is accurate. They haven’t been proven to be harmful in any way, and the science is, at least, way more settled than you imply. Monsanto’s ethics do not affect GMO safety. Bans in other countries do not affect or reflect GMO safety. The U.S. banned absinthe for a century on bogus ‘evidence’ of its effects. We also still ban sodium cyclamate, an artificial sweetener that has the benefit of being heat-stable, despite a lack of evidence of toxicity or carcinogenicity. Meanwhile, there is still zero research showing GM foods are harmful; your body has no idea whether that C12H22O11 you just stirred into your coffee came from GM sugar cane or non-GM.

Bob: What’s keeping Colton Walker from being a top 100 prospect and projecting as an above average regular?
Keith Law: Questionable defense, and questions whether his bat will play outside of extreme hitter’s parks. All three teams for which he’s played play in very hitter-friendly environments.

dan: I apologize if you’ve answered this before (or wrote on it); have you read any CS Lewis?
Keith Law: I read the Lion, the Witch Hunt, and … no, wait, that’s not it. You know the one I mean. I read it maybe ten years ago and was bored by it.

KS: I know it’s early, but any reports on how Bohm looks?
Keith Law: I had unflattering reports from pro scouts who got their first looks at him in pro ball.

Jeffrey: Regarding a question from a few weeks ago: eliminate the Confederate flag, and the wedding you attend has the groom and groomsmen equipped with sidearms. Do you still walk out?
Keith Law: Hell yeah.

Oscar: Any info on the 2019 J2 class yet?
Keith Law: I don’t track or cover that.

Ron Dog: Will you be using the term “front hole” instead of vagina?
Keith Law: This was such a dumb non-troversy, pushed by the same dumb white nationalist sites. That term showed up in a sexual health manual that was aimed, in part, at trans women. The group that published it even clarified that they weren’t changing terminology or eschewing the use of the word ‘vagina,’ but why bother with facts when you want to own the libs?

Mike: Two things about your pizza list last week. 1) you should give Vecchias in Phoenixville a try if your up that way. 2) in the comments you mentioned not being a big fan of Pepe’s style. That’s the great pizza I grew up with. I’m curious, what would you call that style?
Keith Law: That’s New Haven style. It’s fine – I don’t dislike it – but it’s not my favorite.

Dmitry: Love your stick to baseball links! Would trading Andujar to Braves for pitching and signing Manny be possible for the Yanks?
Keith Law: Sure, it’s possible. At this point I’m not sure what pitching would be available and of interest to them.

Mike: Who has a better chance to overachieve and become an above average 2B – Shed Long or Kevin Kramer?
Keith Law: Kramer has the better chance. Long is maybe a 40 defender at second.

Brett: I know he is 25 and not really a prospect per se, but could Joshua Jackson have any success in the majors?
Keith Law: Trenton guy? I don’t think so.

Brandon Warne: As best as you can recall, who is the prospect who most exceeded your expectations while you’ve been doing this?
Keith Law: Altuve, probably. I did have him on a midseason top 50, but he’s a good example of someone even his own team underestimated. And how could you not? He’s a unicorn. A very little unicorn.

Dr. Bob: Wil Myers got hit in the face by a ground ball at 3b. Can someone remind me again why the Padres just had to sign him?
Keith Law: Or had to sign Hosmer to force Myers off first.

John: What deranged sociopath decided to “double stuff” the Oreo, a cookie that had known perfection since 1912? This is the abomination that should unify our opposition, as members of Planet Earth
Keith Law: I completely agree. The ratio of the original was perfect.

AJ: Hey Keith, flu shots for kids under 1 year old? Good or bad idea?
Keith Law: Minimum recommended age is 6 months.

John: What have your thoughts been on Mike Shildt so far?
Keith Law: I’ve said this in a few spots, but his best attribute is being not Mike Matheny. It seems like some of the younger guys who didn’t fare well under Matheny are faring better under Shildt. That could be noise, but given Matheny’s weird dislike of Kolten Wong, my gut says it’s signal.

Brandon Warne: Would you rather have Tyler Austin or Greg Bird going forward?
Keith Law: Bird. I have a soft spot for Austin but he’s never gotten all the way back after that lost year-plus with wrist injuries.

Brian: Heard on radio that Padres FO sees Urias as a Marco Scutaro comparison. Any thoughts?
Keith Law: He’s better than that.

Scott: You are higher than Bryse Wilson than most. What do you see him as a few years from now?
Keith Law: #3 starter with a chance to be a #2.

JR: Keith Law, Circa 2017 – writes Smart Baseball. Keith Law, Circa 2019, starts touting Wins, RBIs and Saves. Everyone wonders what happens. ESPN releases following statement: “We learned Keith Law has sometimes had significant memory issues in other situations where he had prior extensive knowledge of events. He has also periodically taken medicine that can negatively impair his memory, concentration & focus”
Keith Law: This is true, assuming rum counts as a medication.

Josh: Hey Keith, wondering if I could get your thoughts on Keegan Akin. His control has been a slight issue but he’s been killing it for Bowie all year. Is #3 starter a reasonable ceiling projection for him?
Keith Law: I’d take the under on that. I’ve never seen him throw with the velocity he supposedly can have.

Tim: Who is better in 5 years…Dom Smith or Peter Alonzo? How good are they?
Keith Law: I think Smith is the better hitter and way better 1b. Both are regulars.

Mike: Keith that change up kopech threw…if that’s what it is wow. I guess I don’t have a question but let’s just acknowledge how filthy that was. Thanks!
Keith Law: His secondary stuff is legit. He needs to throw it more.

John: What is Nolan Gormans ceiling?
Keith Law: Impact middle of the order bat. More power than OBP/contact skills.

John: How would you rank the young arms up with the Cardinals now? (Flaherty, Weaver, Gant, Gomber, Ponce De Leon, Hudson)
Keith Law: Flaherty is a full grade above any of the others. He’s the only surefire starter in the group.

RSO: Where would Victor Victor Mesa land in the prospect rankings once he signed with a major league team?
Keith Law: If that’s a top 100 question, the answer is probably not on it. I’ve heard elite defender, questions on the bat.

Frank: Now that 2018 playoffs appear out of reach, what do you think of Davey Martinez going forward? He appears to be in over his head, yet his players seem to like him. Is he a just a good bench coach that got hired for the wrong role? Or do you see him eventually becoming a good manager?
Keith Law: I think he might be in over his head, but I can’t blame their season on him. Too many injuries and underperformances to pin on the manager.

AJ: How would you handle the Touki, Bryse Wilson, Gohara, Fried group of pitchers when the Triple A season ends?
Keith Law: With all four on the 40-man, I’d have them all up in September even just for long relief work, maybe setting up some tandem starters. Good for development and for Anthopoulos et al to get some in-person looks to determine if all are part of the team’s future.

Juan : Do you think Cease will stick as a SP long term?
Keith Law: Yes, health permitting, I think he’s a definite starter.

Dave: K-Law, you’ve never steered me wrong on food recommendations. Any updates on where to eat in Charleston and/or Savannah? Husk is a given.
Keith Law: I have a long list of places in Charleston I want to hit, but haven’t been there in years.

Dr. Bob: Harrison Bader is leading NL rookies in WAR, mostly from defense. Didn’t have the splash of Acuna or Soto. ROY candidate?
Keith Law: No, because (I think I may have said this before) WAR can be misleading with players who are platooned, and don’t get as many AB against their weak side. I wouldn’t vote for Bader on the basis of AB he didn’t get over guys like Soto or Acuna who played every day.

Andrew: Is McNeil looking like a real option to be an above average 2nd baseman? Was his lack of profile in the minors more an injury issue than a talent issue? Seems to be a legit bat.
Keith Law: Tiny sample size.

Mike: I’m a diehard Cubs fan but also not a garbage human so the trade for an unrepentant homophobe like Murphy gives me an ick-factor when rooting for my team. It’s not quite as gross as Chapman in 2016 but it’s still not good. I tend to think of Theo as far more progressive than a lot of baseball people but I guess not. Are there any teams who would actually not sign/trade for an guy who will help on the field but is backwards off of it?
Keith Law: Yes, there are several such teams, but they don’t talk about it. I had multiple GMs reach out to me before the draft to say they had taken Heimlich off their boards, but they didn’t want it publicized. I don’t blame them – better to do it than to talk about it. You don’t need publicity for doing the right thing.

dan: Out of Hudson, Gant, Gomber, Poncedeleon, Weaver; who has a legit chance to be above-average starters/
Keith Law: None of them, to me. All back-end guys or relievers.

1986 Eric Davis: If the Astros were to call up Forrest Whitley, do you think he could be a dominant bullpen piece, and would he be eligible for the postseason?
Keith Law: Yes, and apparently yes on the latter, which i had wrong earlier this season.

B Mand: If I remember correctly, you always believed Bogaerts had more power than he showed his first couple years in the majors. Is this type of season what you expected? 20-25 HRs and lots of doubles.
Keith Law: If you’d asked me while he was in A-ball I would have said 30 homers, so I guess not quite, but I’ll take it.

John: Corey Ray seems to have had a great season- has his stock risen?
Keith Law: I loved Ray in the draft, but he has not had a great season, not with a .330 OBP and near 30% strikeout rate. I’ve heard from scouts that he’s selling out to hit for more power, which is fine on its own, but can’t come at the expense of getting on base.

Tim: Has Amed Rosario disappointed you thus far/about righted you thus far/exceed your expectations thus far?
Keith Law: Disappointed, but not every prospect performs right away in the majors, and it’s not like the Mets are developing guys left and right on the big league club. (Still very bullish on their farm, though.)

BE: Odds that Kelenic ends up being the best player in this draft class ?
Keith Law: Nonzero. Maybe 10-15%? He’s pretty fucking good.

Larry: Nick Madrigal is slugging .325 thru 133 PA’s. Please talk me off the edge!
Keith Law: Did I answer this last week? I have nothing to tell you on this. I don’t think he’s going to have any power. He’s only slightly bigger than I am, and didn’t drive the ball much in college. He can really hit, and he’s a definite big leaguer, but there’s not going to be power there.

JR: I generally agree with you on most items (baseball and non-baseball). Therefore, when you tweet something I can usually predict what type of results you will get – mostly supportive with a decent mix of morons. However, I was blown away by all the negative replies you received from your tweet on minor leaguers deserving fair pay. Was extremely shocked at all the replies defending the current system.
Keith Law: The people who think minor leaguers are just “playing a game,” rather than working full-time hours for less than full-time pay, are totally out to lunch.

Kevin: Matt Manning is throwing the ball pretty well in Lakeland. Is he ready to start next season in AA?
Keith Law: Not really throwing that well. I believe he’ll start in AA and have trouble with both walks and homers.

Chuck: Any Tigers position player in the farm right now have a chance to be a legitimate star? Paredes? Meadows?
Keith Law: Probably not, but I could see 5-6 guys who look like potential 50s or 55s. Cameron is one. I really like Castro, whom they just got from Cleveland.

Jack: How big is the gap really between someone like Bo Bichette and someone like Gavin Lux?
Keith Law: Very big. And I like Lux.

Trevor: What’s the correct dose of colloidal silver to recover from CIA nanites? Asking for a friend.
Keith Law: Hang on, that was cutting edge last week, but medicine moves faster than that, my man.

Matt: What is wrong with Dylan Bundy?
Keith Law: He’s been overworked the last two years and it shows up in the results. His old fastball is gone, and he’s homer-prone as a result. I know O’s fans were mad I was pessimistic about him when he came back from elbow and shoulder surgeries, but we all had plenty of reason to doubt his durability. Had he been used more carefully, or switched to a relief role, maybe the situation would be different today.

Jackson: Would you rather have penne vodka or penne bologonese ?
Keith Law: Penne alla vodka.

John: I know you recently did a piece on Adam Haseley, but can you give me your biggest positive from watching him and your biggest negative?
Keith Law: I have no positive to report from that look. The negatives are in the piece.

Jerry: Historically, if the economy is strong, incumbents win. No matter how corrupt our leaders are, they don’t get voted out unless people feel it in their bank accounts.
Keith Law: Absolutely correct. But many people are feeling it in the wallet. The top end isn’t, but people at the lower end of the economy aren’t seeing wage gains to keep up with the cost of living, and some are losing their jobs as companies continue to automate or outsource.

Ben: Does Salt Lake City have a reputation as an extreme hitter’s park? I’ve always been curious. I know we’re not Denver high, but still well over 4000′.
Keith Law: Yes, it does.

Pops: Would Alex Verdugo help the struggling Dodgers offense?
Keith Law: He could. Not sure where he’d fit, but in the abstract I think his bat would help. Or he could pitch the 7th.

Pete: Rosario has been heating up lately. What do you think his line looks like next year, assuming you’re still buying on him
Keith Law: Sorry, if I didn’t answer that above, I’m still buying.

Chuck: What level does Mize start with next year? Does it make it to big club? Even worth it considering Tigers are a ways away still?
Keith Law: I would start him in AA. He’s going to obliterate A-ball hitters. Challenge him.

Chris: Kelenic and Woods-Richardson look solid in their first year. Very early but as a Mets fan I’m intrigued and happy with their recent drafts.
Keith Law: I’ve heard W-R is throwing harder and with a better CH than he had pre-draft. Very promising. Tramuta and company have done a very good job the last few years. (Full disclosure: I worked with Tramuta in Toronto for several years.)

CJ: How do you view Kapler’s rookie season as manager? The results are thus far exceeding expectations (recent skid notwithstanding), but there seem to be lots of questions about his approach.
Keith Law: What questions are there? I haven’t heard those or noticed any myself. I’ve only seen and heard good things.

Donald T: Keith Law…will you be my lawyer?
Keith Law: Yes, but could you please talk more directly into this pen?

Adam: I asked you a question on Twitter, and three days later there are still people in my mentions arguing about racism and anti-vaxxers. Send help.
Keith Law: That one anti-vaxxer dude seemed like the lunatic fringe ousted him for being “a bit much.”

Andy: Thoughts on Grant Lavigne? Tearing up the Pioneer League and showing plus plate discipline
Keith Law: Grand Junction is 4600 feet above sea level. Everyone seems to hit there. We’ll get more of a sense next year – even though Asheville is a good hitter’s park, the league as a whole is less hitter-friendly.

Harry: FWIW I thought the jab at Daniel Murphy the other day was a little outdated. He met with Billy Bean, and walked back his previous statements.
Keith Law: He didn’t walk them back, though. If he had, I wouldn’t have brought it up. He never retracted or corrected what he said. And his comments would make the clubhouse a hostile work environment for a gay player.

Chris: If anyone was ever doubting that big-college athletics isn’t about generating a lot of money and protecting sources of income at all costs, look no further than the charade that is THE Ohio State University suspension of Urban Meyer.
Keith Law: What a joke. I would love to see OSU students do something about this – stop going to games? – but it’s not going to matter as long as the TV checks roll in.

John: What is Vlad Jr’s recourse, or any other MiLB player who is kept in the minors an unfair amount of time?
Keith Law: A grievance. I do hope he files one.
Keith Law: We need a test case.

Luke: I’ve tried to rewrite this thee times so it doesn’t sound like I’m being a jerk, but I can’t make it work, so apologies if the tone sounds harsh, but are you able to turn off the scouting an analytical part of your mind and watch a game for fun or are you constantly picking up on mechanical flaws or the like when you watch a game?
Keith Law: It’s work. I can’t be at a game and not be working.

Dave: If you had to do it all over again, wouldn’t your analysis of Sale as a prospect be the exact same? If there are 100 prospects with his build and delivery, isn’t the odds that 90+ of them will flame out or never make it into a rotation?
Keith Law: Yes. Post-Sale prospects who’ve reminded me of him have all ended up in relief or gotten hurt. He’s the big exception – never really hurt till this year, and went from a 40 slider to arguably a 70 after signing.
Keith Law: Goldschmidt is a better example of a guy who changed how I think. One, I just try to see guys like him, rather than relying so much on others’ opinions, because he’s not someone who fares well on a traditional scouting report unless you goose the hit tool grade. Two, I’m looking for guys with that sort of swing and skill set now. That’s why I was more bullish on Rhys Hoskins as a prospect than I might have been given his age & pedigree.

Jackson: Ever tempted to place sports bets ?
Keith Law: No. I like my money.

Joe: Can you share your opinions on the new Insider/ESPN+ package and how/if it effects what you do?
Keith Law: I think it’s good news for me, and for readers. You get more stuff for the same price. I get more readers, but am still behind the subscriber wall, which has various benefits for me. It will not change the content I provide for you.

Chris: If you were the future Mets GM would you be tempted in the offseason to trade all of deGrom (3-4 top guys), Thor (2-3 top guys) and Wheeler (1-2 top guys) for the combined 8 or so top prospects and associated depth you should get back in total? Could yield a faster rebuild of say 1-2 years versus a full 3-4 year cycle teardown ala Astros, Reds, Tigers, etc.
Keith Law: Yep. Trade them all. Keep only the youngest guys – Conforto, Rosario, Smith, etc.

Pramit: I’ve seen that Baseball America and Jim Bowden ranked the Blue Jays system as top 3 systems in the league. Other than Vlad and Bo, are there any other impact prospects that are close? Alford has taken a step back, Reid-Foley could be a reliever and the jury is still out on Biggio. I wonder if Vlad being in the system is making the overall org appear deeper than it is.
Keith Law: I said in a recent chat that I do not find that ranking credible. I still don’t. It is not a top 3 system. BA is generally very good, and this is part of what they do; I just strongly disagree on what I would consider objective grounds. The other guy doesn’t cover prospects at all.

Melting Icebergs: Keith, there are an equal number of scientist that believe global warming is NOT man made and simply cyclical. Why are they wrong and the scientist you believe in right?
Keith Law: No there aren’t.

Scott B.: With 21 yr old Devers at 3rd, do the Sox eventually move Dalbec or Chablis to 1st?
Keith Law: Dalbec has made himself pretty good over there at third; I wouldn’t rush to move him yet. Chablis’ glove is pretty flinty.

Brandon Warne: Would you listen to a podcast that combines murder and comedy?
Keith Law: That depends on who’s getting murdered.

Evan: Alex Scherff is working his way back from an intercoastal injury. He looked pretty good before going on the DL. Does he stick as a starter and is he anything more than just a guy?
Keith Law: Starter. High risk with upside.

Jonathon: Thoughts on josh naylor
Keith Law: Can certainly hit and has big time power. Not sold on LF.

Rob: Hey Keith, I think I remember a while back you saying that you weren’t a fan of Deafheaven’s recent stuff. Did you give their newest a listen? Thanks.
Keith Law: One song. Started it a month ago and it’s still playing.

Tim: Remember when Gabe Kapler was about to be fired? Good times.
Keith Law: Yep. There are some Philly sports flacks who just blue themselves that first week.

Dan: Hi Keith, do you think the literature canon (Great Books) is still relative today, especially for younger readers? Shakespeare, Milton, dead white males…
Keith Law: I do, but I wouldn’t recommend any students read just those authors. That literature influenced writers for centuries after, and still influences writers today, so I think they remain essential. And prior to 1800 there ain’t much besides dead white males.

Andy: Any thoughts on speaking to your kids about the President. I hear so many parents say awful things about him in front of their kids. While likely deserved, I was raised to treat people with respect regardless and feel it’s a poor example to set.
Keith Law: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Kenny Kirkpatrick: Hudson Potts has had a monster year in High-A. He’s now in AA at age 19 and seems to get better each month. Is he the Padres 3rd baseman of the future?
Keith Law: I would say there’s a good chance of that, depending on his glove first and his OBP skills second. Still very young and improving quickly. Maybe 40% chance he’s the 3b of the future.

Newt: Does your abstention from red meat include bacon, glorious bacon?
Keith Law: I’m not abstaining from read meat – I just don’t eat beef any more, and haven’t eaten lamb in ages because I found I really didn’t like it.

Craig : Hey Keith , Thanks for the Chat . Do you think Vlad’s future is at 1B in regards to his body type , if so what grade defensively would you give him there
Keith Law: I think he’s a future DH. When I was on TSN1050 a week or so ago, I said he could be David Ortiz. I think any Blue Jays fan would take that.

Kenny Kirkpatrick: Andres Munoz is throwing triple digit heaters in AA at age 19. How good can he actually be?
Keith Law: Pure reliever but I’ve seen it and it’s very real. One-inning guy in any role. Different from Patino, who has a chance to start even though he’s not much bigger than Munoz.

Jason: Prominent BP scout clocked Andres Gimenez 3.8 to first yesterday? Have you heard about this big speed jump? What do you make of him in general?
Keith Law: Bad reading or jailbreak.

JD: Fleet’s Landing in Charleston was and is a treat.
Keith Law: Good to know.

Chris: Mickey Callaway has been bad. I thought his saving graces would be bullpen mgmt and talent development but his handling of both (forgetting to double-switch, batting BP pitchers, Dom Smith) have been outright awful.
Keith Law: Yeah, I haven’t been impressed in year one. Didn’t have managerial experience, right?

Danny: Any chance you heard what’s keeping Everson Peirera from playing in Pulaski?
Keith Law: I was told he’s hurt, but not with what. Seigler is also out due to a concussion.

Kenny Kirkpatrick: What do you think of Buddy Reed? He had a big year in High-A after making some adjustments to his swing this past offseason. He’s struggled so far in his limited playing time in AA.
Keith Law: Swing has improved a little, mostly in terms of using his lower half. Still not buying the bat completely, but with his range in CF he doesn’t have to hit a ton to have some value.

Dr. Bob: RE: Bader. That’s why we come to you. Makes sense. He’s started against 70 RH starters but 34 LH starters. Since I don’t think LH starters make up a third of the league, that is a quasi-platoon.
Keith Law: Last I looked he had a disproportionate % of his PA against lefties, and was killing them (as he should). But while sitting him vs tough RHB may be a good developmental move (or not … I’m saying hypothetically), it shouldn’t count to his credit in awards voting.

Terry (Wash, DC): Are you still a MoviePass subscriber? You haven’t posted many movie reviews lately, and I wondered what you’ve been watching.
Keith Law: I cancelled my subscription when they changed the rules. But there’s also just one movie out I really want to see, Black Klansman. The others are things I could see but could easily wait to stream.

Pat: Another arm injury for Hunter Harvey. Is he just a cross off at this point?
Keith Law: Yeah, just check back in when he’s healthy for a stretch. It sucks.

Evan: Just curious what bag you use to carry all your scouting stuff? It would be neat to see a “whats in Keith’s bag” sorta post.
Keith Law: It’s a camera bag from CaseLogic. Radar gun fits well in it, and I have room for other stuff I might need at a game or on the plane.

APK: Justin Dunn and Franklyn Kilome’s numbers have been really promising at Binghamton so far. Do you see either of them turning into above average major Leaguers?
Keith Law: Dunn yes. Kilome less so.

David: As a fan, would you be more excited to see an 11-10 game or a 1-0 pitchers dual?
Keith Law: The pitcher’s duel. Not even close.

SC: Have to disagree about trading all of the Mets starters. How do you trade deGrom when he’s having an unreal season? Figure he’s at peak value? I’d keep him and Wheeler and entertain offers for Thor. Have to set some sort of middle ground. Also have to see what you’ve got in the system and who can fill needs from other teams
Keith Law: He is at peak value. And his value declines as he approaches free agency.

Steve: Better Naylor long term, Josh or Bo?
Keith Law: I’m all in on Bo. Loved him in the draft, thought he was a top 15 talent, and if he can’t catch – he’s catching now in the AZL, where he’s raking – he’ll be good at third base.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks so much for reading and for all of your questions. I’ll be back next week for another round. Enjoy your weekends!

My wrap-up of all the games I saw at Gen Con earlier this month is now up over at Paste. For Insiders, I wrote up how Shane Baz affects the Archer trade balance, plus notes on Adam Haseley, Nolan Jones, and a few pitchers from the Phillies, Rockies, and Cleveland systems.

Also, I’m co-hosting another family board game night at the Brandywine Hundred Library in Wilmington on Friday night, August 17th, starting at 5:30 pm. You can bring your own games or just bring yourselves, as last time there were probably two dozen games there between the library’s collection and games others brought. All ages are welcome and there will be kids there.

Keith Law: Damn the dark, damn the light. Klawchat.

Gerald: Do you like prospects? Baseball prospects to be clear.
Keith Law: No. Hate ’em.

Ryan: do you see the braves trading any prospects this winter for a veteran? if so whose most likely to go?
Keith Law: I think they’ll do what they just did for Duvall – trade from the surplus, the edges of the system, not the core prospects. You keep the Toukis and the Goharas and the Sorokas (if healthy), but trade the Sims.

addoeh: Which is better; to have more hits than Sadaharu Oh or mad hits like Rod Carew?
Keith Law: Neither. Better to be clutch like Piazza.

Kevin: How would you currently rank the White Sox farm system? Have the injuries impacted their overall ranking? It seems they have been hurt more than prior years.
Keith Law: Tough year for them, still near the top in terms of high-upside talent, only graduated one major guy (I think?) from my list.

JG: Nick Gordon has had a down season thus far in AAA. Is there cause for concern or needs more time?
Keith Law: He’s 22 and hit everywhere else. I don’t think he’s a star but I believe I’ve been consistent the last few years in saying he’s a regular, and someone who’ll play above his tools because of his feel for the game.

Sean: Have you had a chance to review the international signing rule changes? I have not had a chance to do a deep dive into the new international signing rules. It appears though that these rules just really acknowledge the fact that the majority of those players sign prior to their J2 date. From my point of view nothing is really about to change, do you see the same thing?
Keith Law: Yes, that was my quick take too. Formalizing some of that process can create more transparency, and I think it will help players too, since teams could always try to back out of oral agreements. The rules allowing teams to help players travel for workouts are more important, because there are still players in Venezuela, but going there to scout them is too dangerous.

Brian: Is there a major league future for Mickey Moniak?
Keith Law: I don’t see much of one right now.

Ian: What is a good solution to getting rid of purposeful HBPs? Consequences for the manager? Fine an owner every time a pitcher gets suspended for a beanball? The MLB has to realize that a potential season ending injury for a rising star is not a great idea…
Keith Law: A suspension of more than five games for a pitcher would be great. Urena should be suspended for at least 10 games … I’d say something in the 15-20 range.

Rodney: Great pizza list! I recommend Black Sheep the next time you’re in Minneapolis (equal or better than Pizzeria Lola, imo), and Lovely’s Fifty Fifty when you’re checking out Apizza Scholls in Portland.

On to less important stuff. Should John Gant stay in the rotation when Wacha returns?
Keith Law: Thanks! I don’t think so. He’s basically a replacement level starter; Wacha should be more than that.

Eric, Washington DC: I am comparing the stats of Scherzer and Nola on ESPN and I’m confused to see that Nola’s WAR is 7.4 compared to 7.0 for Scherzer. Scherzer has better numbers across the board (ERA, WHIP, Ks, Innings) so I’m wondering why he’s behind Nola. Any ideas?
Keith Law: Yes, Baseball Reference makes some small adjustments such as considering the caliber of competition the pitchers faced. They explain all of that in more detail here than I could do justice to in a chat.

Jaipur rules: What do you think would be a better 2019 plan for the Cubs? Sign Machado to play 3rd, move Baez to SS and Bryant to LF and look to trade Russell/Schwarber. Or sign Harper to play OF, keep the Infield as is and potentially trade Schwarber. It seems like both offensively and defensively Option A might be better?
Keith Law: Option A is better than B, but is either really necessary? I feel like their offense is fine, and they still have some surplus there, but they still need and will continue to need help on the pitching side, rotation and bullpen.

Brian: You mentioned on Twitter the need for people to stop scouting based on stat line. That left me wondering If you’ve got a player who isn’t old for his level, what accounts for a guy who isn’t a prospect posting a huge stat line? Is it a fluke? A guy hitting mistakes that won’t get made at higher levels, etc?
Keith Law: It can be a fluke. It can absolutely be a guy hitting minor-league caliber stuff, or getting away with things that better pitchers – with better stuff or command – will exploit.

Bighen: If Mets hire a new Gm and force him (or her) to try to compete in 2019 what is their best path? They’re not signing machado, Harper etc and improving around the margins on a ~75 win team probably not getting it done. That being said the last two months have made it look like they have 3 aces. Or an ace and two top end SP anyway. Hard to see how they do it wo the will to spend.
Keith Law: I agree. If I were asked to take that job, I’d be talking three-year plans, not one-year. You have talent on the ML roster, and talent coming, but not enough to turn this team into a contender (without a LOT of luck/good health) next year unless you’re spending.

Grover: I’ve heard you express your doubts as to whether or not Julio Urias can recapture any semblance of what made him a top prospect: is your concern more with whether or not he will ever get his stuff back, or durability because of the nature of his shoulder injury?
Keith Law: I don’t think any pitcher who’s had this surgery has truly come back; some never return, and those who have have returned with reduced stuff. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs saw Urias in Arizona and reported that his stuff was indeed down.

Lyle: Earlier this season Eric Filia was traded for Roenis Elias but the Red Sox sent Filia back for a failed physical. Since then, Filia has basically played every day for the M’s AA team. So…what kind of injury causes a player to fail a physical for one team and play every day for another?
Keith Law: When I was with the Jays, we had Dustin McGowan in our system, and knew he had a partial tear of his UCL, but he pitched through it without issue for about four years until it finally snapped. He would have failed a review of medicals in a trade, but he was able to pitch.

Grover: Is there a stat to track who has hit the most rally killing homers?
Keith Law: Someone get Elias on this, stat.

tmh: Do you see Jesus Luzardo as a #2 or more of a mid-rotation guy?
Keith Law: More mid-rotation until the breaking ball improves.

Murphy: What would you do to discourage pitchers from intentionally throwing at hitters?
Keith Law: If you suspend the pitchers long enough, it will end the practice.

redsoxfan: Dio you still think Mitch Keller has ace potential? Last night start in AAA was encouraging but has struggled. Has hje developed a passable 3rd pitch yet?
Keith Law: Potential, yes. Third pitch is not there, however, and at some point it becomes foolish to assume it will be.

clb: Are Kirilloff and Franco both top 15 guys next year?
Keith Law: Franco will get there strictly from graduations, I think. Kirilloff is a stud but I don’t think top 15, not yet.

michael: do you think the giants farm system is getting on track and maybe even on the upswing? bart / hjelle seemed to be reasonable picks based upon your pre-draft rankings. their international signings (like luciano) seemed to be good. Are we another solid draft away from potentially being an above average farm system?
Keith Law: No, a few drafts from that. I didn’t like Bart at pick 2. Hjelle I did. They’ve had a down year with existing prospects, too.

CD: In the last chat you mentioned that Richie Martin is not a good defensive SS. That’s the first time I’ve heard that. One of the main reasons Oakland drafted him in the first round was because of his defensive ability. How/why did he regress since being drafted?
Keith Law: I didn’t think he was good as a junior at Florida. He was fast, but erratic, and his hands weren’t great.

Neil: Lewis Thorpe’s stats have been bonkers since June. Has he taken a step forward?
Keith Law: I only saw him in DC and it wasn’t a promising outing. I’d be glad to see him become a serious prospect, as I think it helps when players from less common markets break out, but the stuff isn’t quite there.

Randy: Are you gonna try to see Luis Robert before the season ends? Hopefully he doesn’t get injured the day before you go like the last couple times!
Keith Law: They don’t come near me again. I’m hoping he ends up in Fall League.

Harry: What do you say to those so-called traditionalists who defend Urena
Keith Law: Go watch cockfighting instead. More your speed.

Jeremy: How annoyed are you of vlad Jr being in the minors ? Nothing bother me more in baseball
Keith Law: It’s kind of ridiculous now. I was trying to eyeball how many wins they’d lost by having Morales etc as their DHs this season instead of Vlad. Three felt about right.

Warbiscuit: Odds of you going back to Auburn in the spring to scout Will Holland and/or Davis Daniel?
Keith Law: Slim. Sorry.

Ryan: Have you heard anything about the Mets Kingsport roster? Very early in their careers, but there seems to be a lot of potential talent on that roster.
Keith Law: Yes. Kelenic’s on another tear now.

John: Will DeGrom set a new standard for worst W-L to win a Cy Young?
Keith Law: I would enjoy that and its aftermath very much. My colleague Michael Wilbon had some rather outdated thoughts on the subject the other day.

Rob: So Will Myers at 3rd did not look “terrible” from my eye. With all the outfield guys they’re trying out and Hosmer (sadly) locked in, would you spend the off season trying this out? As far as I can tell 3b is one of the few places the Padres don’t have elite prospects coming.
Keith Law: Potts is pretty damn good. And one or more of those shortstops will move to third eventually. But for next year, moving Myers back to 3b would be a great idea.

Joe: If you’re the Braves, do you put Touki in the big league rotation and let him go or do you use him kind of like D. Price in his rookie year out of the bullpen to limit his innings?
Keith Law: Break him in slowly now, as a long reliever, but he’s in the rotation in April for me.

Andre: Was at Bryse Wilson’s start last night in Gwinnett. He was filthy from start to finish. Is he a DUDE/what’s his potential?
Keith Law: Was on my midyear top 50. I’m a huge fan. Great pick in the 4th round, great work by player development to clean him up too.

john: How much should we be concerned about Faedos drop in speed and dominancy? Seems like he went from a 2-3 guy to back end guy.
Keith Law: I was a little bearish on him in the draft – I saw a slider-heavy guy without a fastball that was good enough to make him a potential 2.

DevilExpos: Thoughts on Brandon Lowe? Is there anyone else you like in the Rays system that isn’t as heralded as Jesus/McKay and could breakout soon like Lowe did this season? Solak? Brock Burke? Joe McCarthy?
Keith Law: I do like McCarthy, but his upside is probably capped if he doesn’t gain power somewhere. Ronaldo Hernandez might be a star. I’m still a Lucius Fox fan. Michael Mercado has looked really good despite so-so results.

Justin : The Boston Globe is getting threats for running an editorial claiming a free press is not the enemy. Are these the end times?
Keith Law: Yes.

Ben: Did the Acuna HBP appear intentional to you?
Keith Law: 100%.

Kosmo: Love your work Keith! Maybe as a rangers fan I’m desperate for one of our young pitchers to turn out good, but joe palumbo looks great coming off the injury. Do you think he has mid-rotation potential?
Keith Law: I would just barely take the under on this.

Dan: Is Kyle Tucker going to be okay?
Keith Law: He’s 21. Yes.

Mike: Keith, the Braves just signed up to be a high-visibility sponsor for a fundraising event for the Republican candidate for governor. He is virulently anti-immigrant. How do you think the Braves players feel about that?
Keith Law: He’s not just anti-immigrant. He has a history of voter suppression and targeting minority groups that try to encourage people of color to vote.

RB: What’s going on with Anderson Espinoza? Do you think he can regain form post-injury, whenever that is?
Keith Law: We’ll see next year. I don’t think he was expected to see the mound in games this year.

Lark11: Is there any hope for Robert Stephenson? He’s issuing 4-pitch walks to opposing pitchers and missing his location on some pitches by 3 feet. Is there any lingering basis on which to hope for improvements in control/command? If not, is there any role in which he can actually provide positive production? Thanks!
Keith Law: He’s one of the bigger disappointments for me in the last few years because the stuff has been so damn good but he has made zero progress in three seasons. Putting him in the bullpen probably isn’t going to solve anything, either; this isn’t about lacking stuff to turn over a lineup, but about not throwing enough strikes.

Devon: Keith, do you think Tampa Bay will take its time developing Wander Franco? Would a monster performance force their hand or will they stick to org. philosophy?
Keith Law: I’ll predict he’s in the majors before he turns 20.

Deke: Understand if you can’t answer this, but listening to you guest-hosting for Buster recently, is it difficult for you to do some of the ad live-reads? I felt like I was listening to a pod person hearing you speak highly of certain hot dogs and certain beers.
Keith Law: I was trying very hard not to crack up while reading those. Especially the one for a mass-market beer I wouldn’t drink if you paid me.

Chris: Any GM candidates you’d like to see get a look this offseason?
Keith Law: The Mets are supposedly going to interview my old mentor from Toronto, Tony Lacava, who would be a superb choice, and would fit the alleged ‘old-school’ preference while giving them someone who was also very quick to adapt to the analytical side too. I’ve also seen other names I would recommend on their potential interview list – Bobby Heck, Jared Porter, Ben Cherington, any of whom would be a very good hire.

JP: what would be your AL MVP ballot as of today?
Keith Law: Betts, Ramirez, Trout.

Scott: With LeMahieu about to be a free agent and Story looking like a regular for now, would you shift Brendan Rodgers over to 2B next season or is Garrett Hampson someone you think is worth giving an every day opportunity to in the meantime?
Keith Law: I prefer Rodgers at short to Hampson. There are scouts who disagree and scouts (more) who think both end up at other positions.

Matt: Outside of recent draft picks, are there any rules regarding PTBNLs? If team A wanted a specific young major leaguer but team B wanted to keep him for a current playoff run, could they agree on him and complete the trade after the season?
Keith Law: You can’t rent a player like that. There are rules on PTBNLs. I don’t have them handy right now.

JP: does Greg Bird have the skills (and health) to be an above-average 1B?
Keith Law: Defensively? No shot.

Jack: So what did you see from Adam Haseley?
Keith Law: My Insider post on him will be up shortly. I already filed it.

Brian: Bukauskus has been pitching well this season. Was it just a matter of him getting healthy?
Keith Law: He was recovering from a serious car accident.

J: Obviously a SSS since the trade, but could the Tigers have stolen a player in Wili Castro?
Keith Law: I raved about him in my writeup of the deal.

Dave: These chat are too fun, Keith. You’re gonna have to be knocked down.
Keith Law: Dammit, Jose.

Nick Taylor: Book recommendation: “There There” by Tommy Orange. Gritty realist novel of linked stories, a la Jennifer Egan’s “Goon Squad,” with a cast of Native American characters living in Oakland. Climax is a huge powwow (festival) on the field at the Coliseum. Best novel I’ve read this year. Watch this guy Orange…
Keith Law: Thank you! Hadn’t heard of this.

Van Skike: Should the Reds give Siri a September call-up this year?
Keith Law: I’m more interested in how they call him up. “Hey, Siri!”
Keith Law: (Also: No. He’s not hitting in AA.)

The Bilmo: Very reasonable pizza list! Many I’ve been to, many more I’m looking forward to. Assuming you’ve enjoyed Pepe’s white clam, have you tried Zuppardi’s white clam in neabry West Haven? Many (not me) say it beats Pepe’s. It’s awfully good (the clams are shucked to order), and the fact that there can even be a Pepe’s/Zuppardi’s debate makes it noteworthy.
Keith Law: I have tried Pepe’s white clam pizza and don’t like it at all. I don’t think clams belong on pizza. Or anywhere with cheese involved.

J: Better chance of rebounding/becoming a good starter? Faedo or Burrows?
Keith Law: I think Burrows is a high probability starter.

Lark11: Honest question: to this point in his career, is Mike Trout the best baseball player in the history of the sport?
Keith Law: I would say so. I tend to favor contemporary players over past ones, because the level of competition today is so much higher. The best player in the world in 1910 had a lower bar to clear than the best player today.

leprekhan: Who is the Braves’ prospect whose stock has gone up the most in your eyes? What players have seen their stock go down the most?
Keith Law: Drew Waters had the biggest turnaround, after looking bad last summer, now hitting well enough to get promoted midseason.

Jeff: Jarred Kelenic and Shervyen Newton are basically the same age at the same level. Newton has show so far at his previous levels his ability to get on base . I understand that at this age part of a prospects ranking is a projection, I was just wondering what makes Kelenic such a better prospect than Newton and if you are high in Newton at all?
Keith Law: Different tool sets. I do like Newton.

Rick: Are Eloy and Vlad Jr, both going to be held down until mid-April 2019 at this point? What other reason is there for them not to be up right now?
Keith Law: No real reason other than service time.

Brett: Are there any issues with Kirilloffs approach at the plate? It seems like he swings at everything (but also hits everything).
Keith Law: No. An aggressive approach is only an issue when you don’t hit.

Devon: Keith, has Will Smith passed Keibert Ruiz?
Keith Law: Ruiz is 19. Really?

Ryan: If Brice Turang never develops more than some modest gap power, what is his ceiling as a player overall? Is there enough else there to sustain a 4-win player?
Keith Law: I question whether he’ll hit enough to be a 4-win player.

Dan: What do you think the ceiling is for Brusdar Graterol?
Keith Law: If you think he can start, he’s a 2/3. Command will hold him back from more. Scouts I have asked about him think there’s a lot of closer to him, reflecting the stuff, the style of pitching, and the lack of present command.

WarBiscuit: Does the minor league lifestyle play a deterrent role in parents sending their kids to college ball, particularly if they don’t get a good draft selection or offer? Obviously I still think the Brady Aikens, Carter Stewart and JT Ginn’s of the world should take the money and run. As a student of a major DI baseball school, the college does provide free food that’s actually nutritious to the baseball players and can at least sleep in comfortable beds, where as the lack of pay can prevent a nutritious diet and and can cut into your signing bonus which can turn into 5 figures after taxes. It may be better on a baseball development perspective depending on the coach for those reasons. Obviously if it’s Rice/UVA/Stanford it is not as good, but if it’s Florida/Vandy, it may be better. I think MLB teams should pay minimum wage for the season’s length or at least provide better diets to the minor league grinders. I’m sure you have more to say on this.
Keith Law: I do hear this occasionally from parents and often from college coaches and even players who went to college – the minor league life ain’t fun, but college ball can be. I get that. If college coaches as a whole did a better job of developing players – using pitchers responsibly, teaching hitters to hit instead of fucking bunting in the motherfucking first inning i’m not angry – I’d be more of an advocate for college. Some schools, like the ones you named (Florida, Vandy), do a better job than others. I think the individual school matters tremendously. And MLB doing an end run around the courts to avoid paying a living wage to minor leaguers was a disgrace.

Junior : Billy Eppler has completely change the Angels farm system to a top ten system. Do you agree?
Keith Law: He’s changed it to an above-average system.

Kwame : Who (in an ideal/optimized world) plays first base for the Mets next year. Also can you post the link you used to put on twitter that outlines fallacies?
Keith Law: Smith should probably play every day from here on out, with the plan to transition to Alonso at some point next spring … if Alonso’s defense is good enough. I don’t think it is right now. Yourlogicalfallacyis.com is the site you want.

Larry: Madrigal slugging .340 in the low minors. Please tell me the 4th pick in the country has more than 30 power.
Keith Law: I thought he had 35 power so … yes?

Zac: Please tell me the Jays will call up Vlad Jr when rosters expand?
Keith Law: I don’t think they will.

JP: is there no worthy pizza in Boston? Regina’s?
Keith Law: Overrated. Never had Santarpios, which gets some raves, and which many locals will tell you is good if you’re drunk and it’s 2 am.

Zach D: Ever have your child throw a board game at you cause you beat her? I mean, that’s how you make your competition feel uncomfortable or something
Keith Law: We just rapid-fire meeples at each other.

andy: OK. I get it. Small sample size. But should I be encouraged by Grant Lavigne’s performance in the Pioneer League (a hitter’s league, for sure). I know you wrote that he might have had a higher pre-draft grade if he were from a warm weather state. Has his performance backed that up further?
Keith Law: Go look at past seasons for the Grand Junction club, and how many hitters have gone bananas there, even at young ages, but never panned out. I wouldn’t really alter my view on Lavigne until he’s at sea level.

Nick: Garver Alston said that he could see Dakota Chalmers being an “organization changer.” Is there any reason to believe there could be any truth to that or is that just him blowing smoke?
Keith Law: I strongly disagree with that assessment. Also he’s out with TJ so he’s not changing anything just yet.

Kingpin: And a follow up…should Lulen Baker be at a higher level considering he is a college hitter in Low-A?
Keith Law: He’s in the Appy, no? Gorman belongs there, Baker I’d have moved up by now.

Josh : Taylor Ward seemed to come out of nowhere, wasn’t on any top 100 lists yet the buzz appears to be high on him…. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Didn’t belong on top 100 lists. Was old for AA, raked in a hitter’s park in AAA. Has power, fair hit tool, unclear position.

Adam: Have you come around on Camargo’s bat at all? If he is this player is he a regular?
Keith Law: He isn’t this player.

Adam: I had never seen Touki pitch before his debut. How on earth does that curve break that way from that arm slot?!?!
Keith Law: He’s always had an insanely loose arm, and great arm speed. He’s among the most fun pitching prospects to watch because he can do so many things so easily.

Chuck: Was David Bote on any scouts radar as any kind of a prospect? Sure, it’s a SSS, but you have to love how he plays the game and what he brings offensively and defensively. I guess he’s a reminder that scouting isn’t an exact science.
Keith Law: He was #12 on my Cubs ranking preseason, so I guess he’s a reminder that you should read the stuff I write?

Tracy: Have you read any Philip K Dick books? I don’t recall any mentions of his works from you.
Keith Law: I’ve read sixteen of his novels.

Jax : So Profar’s had a pretty good year. He should put up even better numbers going forward, right?
Keith Law: He’s had a solid year. I still feel like there’s much more in there.

Nate: If you felt comfortable projecting ke’bryan Hayes to hit 20 homers would he be a top 10 prospect?
Keith Law: Top 10 is awfully steep. I can only put ten guys in there.

Aaron C.: Your pizza list — and the discussion it produced — was fun! I remember a few years ago, you ranked rap songs. Have you done any other “Dish” lists that I can peruse to waste time at work today?
Keith Law: Novels, back in 2013ish. I need to update that. Then annual rankings of songs etc.

Jaime : Remember that NYT cartoon about how freedom of speech works? Yeah, the firing of James Gunn was Disney (and everyone) letting him know his jokes were trash. It’s not a good look for you when you defend him.
Keith Law: I did not defend him. I thought his jokes were trash.

Guest: more likely to have better career: ian happ or hunter renfroe; jake junis or jake faria
Keith Law: Happ. faria.

Oscar: Monsanto has to pay 289 million for roundup giving a man cancer, yet we’re supposed to believe GMO’s are safe based on the studies they fund, and ignore their questionable history to boot? Count me out.
Keith Law: Monsanto may have to pay a man something because 12 idiots believed a lawyer’s claims that Roundup gave the man cancer, despite a lack of any scientific evidence to support this. Cancer doesn’t even need a cause. The jury system is utterly useless for adjudicating questions of science.

Joe: Keith, thank you for the write-up of Gen Con games. I asked you in a chat years ago about a game that would work well for someone who was blind. My wife Martha lost most of her vision when she was 20 years old. She loves to play games but most games don’t work well for her. We’re looking forward to trying your No. 1 recommendation.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. Nyctophobia should be in Targets any day now – mine had a space for it on the shelf but no copies as of last week.

Richard: Kevin Smith seemingly came out of nowhere and is raking in Lansing. Do you see a future regular SS in him?
Keith Law: I do not. He also hasn’t been in Lansing since early June, and isn’t hitting that well in Dunedin (a more appropriate spot for a 22-year-old college product).

Jax : Were you surprised that Atlanta didn’t dangle Fried at the deadline? And do you think they will this winter? I think he could be really good but it’s difficult to see how he fits into their rotation.
Keith Law: He’d be in that Sims group I mentioned earlier (I know they dealt Sims). Fried pitches in someone’s rotation, but I don’t think he’s top six on their depth chart.

Danny: I live across the street from Franny’s last location before they closed and agree with your take. Please try Emily’s in Crown Heights next time you’re in Brooklyn
Keith Law: Lot of recs for Emily’s.

Karl: Are you buying that Glasnow just needed a change of scenery? Or perhaps too soon to judge?
Keith Law: Too soon to judge. Also entirely possible that he needed a new voice to help him find a delivery he can repeat.

Jesse B: If the 2018 MLB Draft was held today, who would be drafted much higher? Gorman?
Keith Law: You’re dealing with tiny samples for all these guys. I don’t think a ton would change.

Josh : Is Gavin Lux a potential all-star MI?
Keith Law: Potential, yes.

Quincy: I recently discovered (and loved!) your 100 favorite novels list. I wondered if you could comment on why none of Solzhenitsyn’s or Tolstoy’s works made your list. Not a fan personally, or do you see their work as less than excellent?
Keith Law: Don’t think Tolstoy’s works hold up that well at all – the reputation Russian novels have for excessive length and meandering plots falls primarily on him. I’ve only read one of Solzhenitsyn’s novels, Ivan Denisovich, and didn’t love it.
Keith Law: I’ve read almost 1000 novels now, so making my top 100 would mean something would have to be in the top 10% of everything I’ve read.

Jax : Do you think Giolito needs an off-season to get his shit straight? He’s at least looked decent recently and his velo is back up to 93-95.
Keith Law: He’s looked better recently outside of that one outing vs the Yanks (and giving up a grand slam to Stanton is … well, forgivable?). But overall it’s not the year I expected, especially since all reports in March had him repeating his delivery and commanding the ball in a way he hasn’t really all season.

Ron: A question I just thought of because work is boring me: Who is the best team in the NL? My initial reaction is the Cubs, but the pitching staff and uncertainty with Bryant’s shoulder makes me nervous. Arizona might be the top choice, right?
Keith Law: Gut answer is the Cubs. I won’t argue Arizona.

Anthony: How much of a long term cause for concern is Hunter Greene’s UCL injury
Keith Law: It depends a bit on how serious the sprain is. At this point, they’re acting like it will only require rest. But a sprain typically means a tear, even a tiny one. (It can sometimes mean the ligament has been stretched to the point of causing pain or discomfort, but it’s a fine line between that and the beginnings of a UCL tear.)

Greg: Harrison Bader outperforming your expectation? Baseball Reference at 3.5 WAR now
Keith Law: WAR doesn’t do that well with part-time players (which he was for much of the season) when they’re used for platoon purposes. He still has nearly 40% of his PA vs LHP, whom he has killed, but has been way below average, probably near replacement level, vs RHP.

Greg: I happened to be at an event where Chvrches played recently, and I got a quick second to meet Lauren Mayberry. Even though I avoid meeting my idols out of fear of disappoint, I couldn’t pass this one up, and she was maybe the nicest, most polite person I’ve ever encountered and I have no question but just wanted to say that there are still good things in the world.
Keith Law: That’s awesome to hear although unsurprising given her writings and the interviews I’ve seen. Also I’m a fan because I’m pretty sure she’s shorter than I am.

Jake: Kyle Isbel has been raking since entering Pro ball, as a KC fan, is this a guy I should be excited about?
Keith Law: I’m on it, but next year in high-A will be a real test of what he is.

John: I saw Schilling tear into Olberman the other day regarding his Monday Night Baseball broadcasting job. I actually enjoyed the broadcast very much and wish Kieth were on more often? Do you know Olberman at all?
Keith Law: I’d say that’s a badge of honor for Keith. I have talked to Keith a few times, and was on his show several times a few years ago. He’s off the charts intelligent and really knows his shit about baseball – and we still disagree on stuff. Also, if you ask ESPN people who worked with him, they all marvel at how fast he could absorb material and how long he could speak extemporaneously on air.

Matt: Not going overboard, but did you see this kind of year from Andujar? He never seemed to project to this, but ignored he can maintain this he is a solid regular.
Keith Law: I think he’s a regular, trending towards a 55 rather than a 50. Had him on my top 100 in the winter and argued that they didn’t need to acquire a 3b because he could do it.

Mike : What major-league team’s record that you are most surprised at this year ?
Keith Law: Phillies on the up side, Nats on the down side.

Sam: How would you rank all of the Mission Impossible movies?
Keith Law: I saw the first one and stopped.

Ryan: Does Fredy Peralta ever develop enough command to be an above average big league starter?
Keith Law: It’s not command – it’s stuff.

Tracy: Also, another book question. Have you read GK Chesterton? Father Brown books?
Keith Law: Only The Man Who Was Thursday, which is weird and probably not that great as a novel but still kind of wonderful for its strangeness.

mickey: what’s the first thing I should try cooking in my new sous vide device?
Keith Law: Serious Eats’ chicken thighs recipe. Easy and fantastic.

Mike: This may be a very personal question, and if so, I apologize. Do you send your daughter to public school in Delaware, or private school? No judgement either way, just curious.
Keith Law: Charter school. I would not pay for private school. Delaware does underfund its public schools, unfortunately – my taxes are shockingly low – and we discovered that class sizes were too big in our local elementary school.

Zach: See you finally made it to Spacca Napoli. Thoughts? (That was me who created the pizza map)
Keith Law: Yes, two years ago, I think – the day Schilling was fired by ESPN for the transphobic meme. I nearly missed my flight because the news broke and my phone blew up. The meal was amazing, though. Would go back in a heartbeat.

Jake: Keith, give me an under the radar name to watch for among KC prospects.
Keith Law: I don’t have one for you. You know the good ones. Below that, it drops off quickly.

Rick C: Who would be your NL MVP right now? The top three position players are all at 5.0 fWAR, though deGrom, Scherzer, and Corbin are ahead of them.
Keith Law: deGrom.

Royals Fan in DC: Which Wilmington Blue Rock has improved his MLB prospect status the most this season? We Royals fans need a glimmer of hope.
Keith Law: Khalil Lee but he’s long gone from Wilmington. The team now is void of prospects. Next year we could have Matias, Melendez, Pratto, Isbel, and the five college starters they just drafted.

Dr. Bob: I am in complete agreement on the idiocy of relying on pitcher wins and losses. However, I was reminded of Steve Carlton going 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA and 30 complete games in his first of four Cy Young seasons. The 27 wins represented 46% of the Phillies wins. Flawed stat, but that’s quite a season.
Keith Law: I agree. And pitcher wins, while always flawed, were slightly less so when pitchers were able to work much deeper into games. But now they throw a lot harder, and relievers throw harder than that, and we know teams are more likely to win by pulling the starter after 3x through the order (or sooner).

Nick: Next big competitive advantage a team will figure out and l leverage in player development ? My guess is it’s gotta be health related.
Keith Law: I was asked that by a writer 12+ years ago, in my last spring with Toronto. That was my answer then and it’s still my answer now.

Ryan: Would you be able to name a beer or 2 that you would consider your favorite?
Keith Law: Evolution Lot #3 IPA.

HugoZ: Wouldn’t it be wiser to simply state that every mlb team should avoid the perception that it’s favoring a particular candidate,whatever his or her ideology, so as to avoid alienating part of the fan base?
Keith Law: I mostly agree with this. However, if one of your candidates is a white supremacist, that’s where you make the exception. (And there are quite a few running this November.)

Brett: Not a question, but as a direct result of followin your chats and your work, my outfield in fantasy baseball next year (Keeper league) will be Acuna, Soto and Jimenez.
Keith Law: That seems good.

Nick: Do you think Bobby Dalbec is legit? How does he compare to other Sox infield prospects like Chavis and Ockimey?
Keith Law: Dalbec is way better than Ockimey. Contact rate is way too low. He makes extremely hard contact when he hits it though and is using the whole field now. Huge power, 80 arm, a lot better on defense. I just can’t find a good comp for a hitter with his strikeout rate at his age.

John: Is the whole, “It’s the water” thing true when it comes to why New York pizza is awesome and Delaware pizza sucks?
Keith Law: The water thing is bullshit.

Joe: Scherzer has given up twice as many HRs as Nola. Is this, and should it be, a significant factor in determining WAR?
Keith Law: It’s not in B-R’s formulation. Theirs is based on runs allowed – a run is a run.

Jake: Keith, several KC prospect sites i follow portray Kahlil Lee as a potential “5 tool guy”…is this the case?
Keith Law: That’s not wrong. He can show you enough of all five that you could argue that, but I think he’ll end up more an average runner.

Hank: What’s the holdup on declaring Victor Victor Mesa a FA?
Keith Law: Has he been cleared by OFAC? That’s out of MLB’s control.

Brent : Hi Keith, hoped you enjoyed your time in Indy during GenCon. Curious if you made any food stops during your visit? Thanks.
Keith Law: Milktooth twice, Izzy’s once (i had the shrimp cocktail and couldn’t feel my face), and the rest from all those great food trucks.

Jo-Nathan: Why hasn’t Houston moved Tony Kemp to 2B, and just played Marwin in the OF; Kemp just doesn’t seem to have a lot of range in the OF.
Keith Law: Kemp was really bad at 2b as an amateur too.

ck: There is plenty of caterwauling in MN about the Twins’ fire sale – from where I sit, with the possible exception of not signing Escobar (assuming they could have), my sense was that everything else they did was smart or at least quite defensible – would you agree? Given the uncertainty with Sano/Buxton they certainly can’t pretend they’re in a position to win soon.
Keith Law: Completely agree with you. They did well. And it was the right move.

Scott: What was your initial impressions of Matt Chapman as a prospect? I feel like his ability to make contact has been a hugely pleasant surprise
Keith Law: You are spot on. His K rate this year is 22.8% in the majors. He was at 28% or higher every stint in AA and AAA. That is the shocking part. I thought he was a 70 defender with an 80 arm and 70 power but a 40 hit tool at best because he struck out so often.

Chris: Mediterranean diet: (1) not worth the effort; (2) great idea, but cumbersome and expensive; or (3) all in?
Keith Law: I don’t follow any specific diet plans.

Chris: I’ve heard (er, read) you sing the praises of a good espresso maker before. But I’ve never really appreciated it until I went from drinking k-cups in the morning (I know, not really coffee) to making my own espresso and americanos with a Breville espresso maker. It was expensive to be sure, but life altering. So thanks for getting on that soapbox.
Keith Law: You should all listen to me on food and coffee just never on Chris Sale.

Chris: Hi Keith, I saw a few weeks ago or more that you said you were readin The English Patient. I never saw you review it and I was interested in your thoughts on. Thanks.
Keith Law: I really thought I wrote that up. Found it surprisingly dull and rambling. Couldn’t connect with any of the characters. Maybe I wrote it and never posted it?

Max: I know that you read HP to your daughter. My son is only seven months old, so I’ve got some time, but at what age did you start reading Sorcerer’s Stone to her?
Keith Law: She was 7 3/4. Of course 9 3/4 would have been more poetic but we didn’t want to wait.

Devil’s Advocate: Acuna did not help himself. Either he was guessing away and/or breaking ball or simply hasn’t learned to turn in because his reaction to the pitch was like a catcher crossed up on signs.
Keith Law: She was totally asking for it.

Brett: Why did your wife decide to stop doing her blog? I see you removed it.
Keith Law: Her call. She hadn’t updated it in a while. I’ve encouraged her to continue as I thought it helped her as she dealt with panic disorder (which is something I can only understand as an outsider, having dealt with that only intermittently).

Jimmay: Having read so many award winning books, are there any authors whose entire catalog you’d like to read?
Keith Law: I do that quite a bit. I’ve got two Graham Greene books left. I think I read all of Vonnegut’s works except his final novel.

Chris: I’ve always been a big Plawecki fan. Love the build and think he’s just an all-around decent catcher (which is fine). Let him start next year, right?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Sean: Keith, have you read “It Can’t Happen Here” by Sinclair Lewis? I’m reading it now and well, I just can’t even. My fear is that with all of this hope concerning the mid-terms it’ll end up a vast disappointment for the reality-based community
Keith Law: I read and reviewed it in 2011, and reposted it in March of 2016 when it became clear what was happening.

Lee: After this debacle of a presidential administration is over, how do we change the minds/ attitudes of 35% of our electorate that believes facts/science don’t matter? That’s an awful lot of people to just write off.
Keith Law: We can’t. Denialism is extremely tough to undo.

JR: If you made it your full time job, do you think you could win $$ betting MLB (as much as you currently make annually)
Keith Law: No. that’s like trying to play the stock market.

Nick: One pizza recommendation. If you like Neapolitan-style, you should try Naples Street Food the next time you are on Long Island, in Franklin Square. They are fairly new and quite delicious. Very authentic.
Keith Law: Thanks. I never go to LI any more. I don’t have any family left there.

John: One study found limited evidence of a possible increase in one type of cancer from glyphosate, but could no rule out study bias, confounding variables, etc. If we used that standard anyone who gets cancer and ate McDonald’s french fries has a case.
Keith Law: Exactly. But juries don’t understand the scientific method; something like half of American adults don’t understand that the “theory” of evolution is proven, not “only a theory.”

Lee: I know you’ve recently read the Hyperion books by Dan Simmons. Why do you think he’s not more well known? He’s written some fantastic stuff in many different genres.
Keith Law: Genre fiction is disdained by the broader literary community.

Dan: “feel for the game”? I *think* I know what you mean … or do I? Lack of baserunning mistakes a tangible sign of this? But if you personally see a player just once/twice, you wouldn’t see this, necessarily. That info would come from scouts?
Keith Law: I can see this stuff by seeing a player once or twice, but I’ve been watching players for my job for something like 15 years now.

Mac: Do you think the top players will bow out of Jupiter again this year? This is a disturbing trend.
Keith Law: The timing of that event is terrible for pitchers. But the team USA 18U stuff is right afterwards, so if you’re bailing on one, you’re probably out for both.

Tracy: Third book question for me: I think you have a Carson McCullers book in your top 100. Do you recommend any more of her works?
Keith Law: That’s the only one I liked (The Heart is a Lonely Hunter).

Anthony: Will Estevan Florial ever show the plate discipline to access his tools
Keith Law: I think it’s very unlikely. His ability to pick up spin was nil last year when I saw him.

Chris: what terribly unhealthy food do you have trouble resisting?
Keith Law: Ice cream. Oreos. Also ice cream with Oreos.

Dan: The lyric at the top reminded me of something that drives me crazy: deluxe versions of classic albums. If I tell Spotify or iTunes to play “Rumours,” I don’t want two extra songs tacked onto the end. Can I get an amen?
Keith Law: Amen. And usually I want the studio version, not the live one.

Jakob: Bigger travesty: clams or pineapple on pizza? (I would rather eat a shoe than either.)
Keith Law: I’ve never had pizza with pineapples on it, because I’m not a savage.

snood: Keith! this is the first time I’ve recognized your opening song quote.
Keith Law: I drove down to see my family in VA this weekend, and as I passed through Silver Spring, MD, I put on Fleetwood Mac’s The Dance (one of my favorite live albums ever).

Evan: Always read about reliever concerns with Dylan Cease. Are they mostly abated given his progress this season? Does have project toward the top of a rotation?
Keith Law: He’s looked much better overall this year, and he’s stayed healthy too. I’m a buyer again after waffling a little last year.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you so much for reading. My Insider post on Baz, Haseley, Nolan Jones, and a few pitchers is now up. I should be back again next Thursday for another chat. Enjoy your weekends!